|
Woe
to americans who Are All Prisoners Now All Americans are now imprisoned in a world of lies and deception
created by the Bush Regime and the two complicit parties of Congress, by
federal judges too corrupt, timid or ignorant to recognize a rogue regime
running roughshod over the Constitution, by a bought-and-paid-for media that
serves as propagandists for a regime of war criminals, and by a gutless,
ignorant public who have forsaken their self-respect.
CHEER: Ambrose
Evans-Pritchard: Bank Crisis may make '29 look 'walk in park'...
Alexander Tytler: "The average age of the
world's greatest civilizations has been two hundred years JonesReport.com |
12-4-07
"The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been two
hundred years. These nations have progressed through this sequence: from
bondage to spiritual faith; from spiritual faith to great courage; from
courage to liberty; from liberty to abundance; from abundance to
selfishness; from selfishness to complacency; from complacency to
apathy; from apathy to dependence; from dependency back again into
bondage."-- Alexander Tytler
Andrew Jackson:
"There are no necessary evils in government. Its evils exist only in its
abuses."
AP: TOP 10 NEWS STORIES
'07...
Former
CIA Interrogator: We Carried Out Torture Because The White House Told Us To
Fire
out at building next to White House
FBI
agent threatened to arrest CIA interrogators in 2002.
Countdown:
Bushed! Countdown's list
of the top three Bush scandals you may have forgotten about because of all of
the new Bush scandals. This week's scandals: Habeas Corpus-Gate, Air-Gate and
NIE-Gate.
Bush administration:
Back off says war criminal and strategist dumbya bush on CIA tape probe CNN
HUCKABEE SLAMS 'ARROGANT' BUSH WHITE HOUSE
WYOMING DEM CHIEF: CLINTON WOULD
HURT PARTY...
LA's
gangland culture spreading chaos, violence into America's heartland...
Dodd ready to
mount filibuster to block telecom immunity
Naomi Wolf - "There hasen't been a real
investigation of 9/11."
Lee Hamilton Says the CIA Obstructed the 9/11
Commission
CIA
Failed To Fully Inform Congress About Destroyed Tapes CBS News
More
Evidence of Obstruction of Justice in 9/11 Investigation
Neocons Revise
WMD Entry on Wikipedia Propaganda Portal
Pelosi
and Harman Aided and Abetted 9/11 Cover Up
The
White House and Congress Knew about the CIA Interrogation Videotapes
USATODAYGALLUP POLL: Approval
of Congress sinks to new low...
9/11
Victims' Lawyers Blast Ground Zero Toxic Air Lies In Court
Bush
Authorizes Full Access to U.S. Roads for Even More Mexico-Based NAFTA Trucks
What is the CFR?: The Bush Clinton Bush Clinton
Administration
Olbermann:
Bush is a BOLD faced LIAR about NIE/Iran
Russia's
well-founded and rational deep suspicion of (particularly criminal america) the
West
Hillary
Campaign Tactic Backfires as Top Aide Quits
REPORT: FBI
Videotape shows Sharpton cutting a deal...
Victim:
Gang-Rape Cover-Up by U.S., Halliburton/KBR
Poland
does not need U.S. missile defense base - ex-PM
Iran
Is No Threat and That’s Official “They stole our threat”
goes a headline in the Israeli daily Haaretz. The author is, of course,
referring to the recently published US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE)
composed by 16 American intelligence.....
Gov't official: No 'smoking gun' on Iran
Egypt Govt Accuses Israel of Meddling in Its
Ties With US
Paul: Israel Demanding U.S. Further Its Self-destructive
Pro-israel Mode and Invade Iran
Russia
warns of US missile shield retaliation
PA
Economy Worst Affected by Israeli Restrictions: WB
Israeli
Airstrikes in Gaza Kill 7
NASA 'on target for
return to the moon for the first time by 2020'…..riiiiight!..... UFOetry: We Never Went To The Moon -
The Award-Winning Documentary/Music/Video by John Lee
'The Mother of All Frauds'
History Channel Admits
WTC Tower Fell At Freefall Speed
FBI Now Admits Evidence
Used to Connect Oswald to Kennedy Assasination Was Bogus
Food
prices rising at highest rate for 14 years
Taj
Mahal Won't Accept bushit american Dollars as India Laments Lost Value
THE HILL: Dems Cave On
Spending...
China's Yuan at new high vs
dollar...
YEAR-ENDER: Home Sales
Plunge, Feed Recession Fears...
Morgan Stanley
issues full US recession alert Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Tuesday December 11, 2007 Morgan Stanley has issued a full recession alert for
the US economy, warning of a sharp slowdown in business investment and a
"perfect storm" for consumers as the housing slump spreads. In a
report "Recession Coming" released today, the bank's US team said the
credit crunch had started to inflict serious damage on US companies…..
Reuters House
prices seen falling 30 pct 12- 6-07 By
Julie Haviv NEW YORK (Reuters) - Housing markets from Punta Gorda, Florida, to
Stockton, California, will crash and suffer price drops of more than 30 percent
before the housing crisis is over, a report from Moody's Economy.com said on
Thursday. On a national level, the housing market recession will continue through
early 2009, said the report, co-authored by Mark Zandi, chief economist, and
Celia Chen, director of housing economics. The report paints a worsening
picture of the hard-hit housing sector, which is in the midst of its worst
downturn since World War II. While activity will stabilize in 2009, it will not
be until 2010 before a measurable improvement in sales, construction and
pricing will emerge, the report said…..
Earnings Recession Has Arrived U.S. corporate profits are in a recession, and the entire economy
can not be far behind. Slower sales and higher energy and labor costs are
forcing companies from Bear Stearns Cos. to Pitney Bowes Inc. to reduce
spending and hiring. Their efforts to keep earnings from eroding even further
raise the risk that the economy, already weakened by the steepest housing slide
since 1991, may shrink sometime next year. ‘The earnings recession has already
arrived, says David Rosenberg, North America economist for Merrill Lynch &
Co. in New York. We are going to see an economic recession in '08.…..’
BANK OF AMERICA Sees Bigger
Writedowns (12-12-07).....
MORGAN STANLEY first loss
ever; taps China for $5 Billion...
PAPER: Housing foreclosures
largest since Great Depression...
Home
Prices Fall for 10th Straight Month
Oil price spikes close to
$97...
CITIGROUP and MERRILL face
bigger writeoffs/dividend cuts, etc.....
CHEER: Ambrose
Evans-Pritchard: Bank Crisis may make '29 look 'walk in park'... As central banks continue to splash their
cash over the system, so far to little effect, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard argues
things are rapidly spiralling out of their control Twenty billion dollars here,
$20bn there, and a lush half-trillion from the European Central Bank at
give-away rates for Christmas. Buckets of liquidity are being splashed over the
North Atlantic banking system, so far with meagre or fleeting effects.
"Liquidity doesn't do anything in this situation," says Anna
Schwartz, the doyenne of US monetarism and life-time student (with Milton
Friedman) of the Great Depression."It cannot deal with ….. that lots of
firms are going bankrupt. The banks and the hedge funds have not fully
acknowledged who is in trouble. That is the critical issue," she adds…..
NEWS
FLASH: Direct from Lost Angeles Learning Annex – Presenting mobster t_rump of
new yoke, new joyzey, and now caleefornia mob fame with his continuing message
for the past several years: buy real estate (and watch the values go
down…..riiiiight!).
Bank sues Trump over Chicago
tower loan...
Trump casino to miss interest
payment...
ANALYST FORECASTS: BULLS
AND BEARS By Richard Shaw [there were 3 bull forecasts which are bull s**t and not
included in the following excerpt to preclude fraud and conserve space; even
the neutrals are a stretch]
…..BEAR - May 30: Morgan Stanley equity analyst Jason Todd says sell this
S&P 500 rally. He says Morgan Stanley does not see large upside above
825-850. He said, “In the rush to buy a cyclical recovery, it seems earnings or
valuation no longer matters. We would be comfortable with this view if the
earnings trough was closer, but it is not.”
BEAR - MAY 28: Berkshire Hathaway possible successor to Warren Buffet, David Sokol, says they see no evidence of the green shoots that been a stimulus to the stock market. He sees the most significant headwinds to the electric utility industry in his 30 years, and see continuing housing industry problems.
BEAR?/BULL? - May 28: PIMCO co-CEO Bill Gross (manager of world’s largest bond fund) portrays “new normal” including accelerating inflation toward the latter part of a three- to five-year cycle, and the need to reexamine accepted notions about investing. He said stocks have not and will not always outperform bonds, and having 60% to 80% of portfolio assets in stocks may not always make sense. He believes the dollar will lose its status as the reserve currency; Brazil, India and China (forget Russia) will offer the best growth. The U.S. government will be selling trillions in Treasuries; the US savings rate may rise significantly, and the consumer economy may be shrinking long term due to the aging of the population.
BULL?/BEAR? - May 28: GMO CEO Jeremy Grantham predicts higher US savings and lower consumption with many postponed retirements. He sees some reasonable values within the stock market now and sees the third year of the presidential cycle (2011) as the most promising. He is not certain that a robust rally will continune. Like John Bogle, he believes in the principle of having your age as the percentage of bonds in your portfolio. He expects a bubble in emerging market stocks to develop.
BEAR - MAY 26: Comstock Partners portfolio managers Charlie Minter and Marty Weiner, say P/E’s on “as reported earnings” are too high in consideration of the long-term trend in earnings (now in down phase). “Over the past 75 years, most market peaks topped at around 20 times reported earnings, and the troughs occurred at around 10 times earnings. The financial mania of the late 1990s pushed P/Es to over 40 times reported earnings, and the following bust never brought P/Es below 18 times reported earnings. … Going back to 1950, every instance where actual earnings rose above trend-line earnings was followed by a period where actual earnings went well below trend-line earnings. Comstock Partners believes that we have entered such a period now, and that the market is trading at such a high multiple of trend-line earnings that it will be difficult to make money.”
BEAR - May 19: Gluskin Sheff analyst David Rosenberg (formerly of Merill Lynch) says this rally is a sucker’s rally based on short covering. “The FTSE All-World market P/E ratio on forward earnings estimates is now around 15x, well above pre-Lehman collapse levels and nearly double the lows for the cycle … this was a rally built largely on short covering, pension fund rebalancing and the emergence of hope wrapped up in ‘green shoot’ data points. … On average, the S&P 500 undergoes a correction of more than 20% … at a minimum, take profits”
NEUTRAL (BEAR?) - May 11: Baring Asset Management portfolio manager Hayes Miller says “Estimates suggest there isn’t that much further to run because equities are fairly valued … Earnings growth for 2009 and 2010 can’t support prices too much higher than where we are today.”
BEAR - May 11: HSBC Global Asset Management chief investment officer Leon Goldfeld, chief investment officer at HSBC Global Asset Management said it’s “hard to see” enough profit growth to justify higher stock prices. The firm’s strategy will be to reduce its holdings of equities and move into bonds and cash, he said.Bloomberg TV on June 1, said HSBC forecasts 900 as the year-end price for the S&P 500 index.
NEUTRAL - May 11: Bloomberg compilation of analyst forecasts of 2009 earnings for the S&P 500 is at $57.17 (not stated whether “as reported” or “operating”). As of June 1, that puts the S&P at about 16.5 times forecasted earnings. Yale economist Robert Schiller said the historic average is a multiple of about 16.3. [we note that we are not in an average situation or stage of a market, however].
BEAR - May 11: Bank of America CIO for private wealth management expects a 10% correction. He said, “We’re going to be in a very volatile, chop-and-grind type of market. We’ve been shown that there is a small light at the end of the tunnel, it’s dim but getting brighter, and that’s why stock prices have come this far this fast. Now, it’s all about ‘show me.’”
BEAR?/ BULL? - May Letter: PIMCO co-CEO Bill Gross wrote: “Do not be deceived by the euphoric sightings of “green shoots” and the claims for new bull markets in a multitude of asset classes. Stable and secure income is still the order of the day. Shaking hands with the new government is still the prescribed strategy, although it should be done at a senior level of the balance sheet. If the government indeed becomes your investment partner, you should keep the big Uncle in clear sight and without back turned. Risk will not likely be rewarded until the global economy stabilizes and the Obama rules of order are more clearly defined.”
BEAR - April 17: Barclay’s analyst Barry Knapp forecasts S&P 500 at 757 by year-end 2009. He said, “The equity market has priced this recovery and then some. It looks pretty expensive to us.”
(7-1) SELL / TAKE ANY PROFITS IN THIS SECULAR BEAR MARKET SUCKERS’ RALLY PROGRAMMED TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED [ Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years ] AND COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING [ Goldman Sachs on pace for record bonuses: report (Reuters) [$$] Big Pay Packages Return to Wall Street as new fraud gains steam (at The Wall Street Journal Online) ] BASED ON CONTINUED BAD NEWS ( ie., BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... Job losses / job concerns realistically weigh on confidence, real estate values/prices continue downward trend as per Case / Shiller Index (-18.1%, -21% in california) Gerald Celente speaks on Cap and Trade and other handicaps to the US economy HOW MANY TIMES CAN THE WALL STREET FRAUDS, WITH CYCLICAL REGULARITY, DO THE SAME OR SIMILAR FRAUD WITH IMPUNITY (STILL NOT ONE PROSECUTION IN THE MOST RECENT MASSIVE SECURITIES FRAUD, BUT PLENTY OF OBFUSCATION EMANATING FROM THE PERPETRATORS AS WELL AS THOSE WHO SHOULD BE PROSECUTING /PURSUING THEM) NOW REFLATING THE STOCK MARKET BUBBLE BASED UPON NOTHING AT ALL (BAD NEWS,FRAUD AND BULL S**T), CHANGING ACCOUNTING RULES TO FACILITATE THE COMMISSIONABLE BUBBLE FROM WHICH THE SOURCE OF FUNDS TO EVEN PAY BACK LOANS TO AVOID SCRUTINY OF THEIR NEW FRAUD IS GENERATED [SAVINGS AND LOAN DEBACLE, DOT.COM SELL THE SIZZLE BUST /DEBACLE, RECYCLED /REPACKAGED /RESOLD /RECOMMISSIONED WORTHLESS COLLATERALIZED SECURITIES /PAPER (IN THE TRILLIONS YET STILL NOT ADDRESSED), ETC., THE FRAUDS ARE GETTING LARGER, HENCE THE RIDICULOUS TOO BIG TO FAIL MANTRA … HOW PATHETIC! … THAT MONEY HAS TO COME FROM SOMEPLACE, IE., PRINTING, CREATING, YOUR POCKETS, … NOT OUT OF THIN AIR! ] TYPICAL END OF QUARTER FRAUD/WINDOW DRESSING TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED [ Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years ] AND COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING [ Goldman Sachs on pace for record bonuses: report (Reuters) ] BASED ON CONTINUED BAD NEWS ( ie., BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... , personal income up modest .2% and spending down, China calls for new reserve currency to supplant worthless dollar Dollar And Stocks Drop As China Calls For New Global Currency , continuing unemployment claims at or near record 627,000, weekly unemployment claims up 15,000, and GDP contraction –5.5%, all worse than expected (lennar wider than expected quarterly loss rallies stock…riiiiight!) Jobless claims rise; GDP dips in 1Q ; soothing words/b.s. from fed which previously predicted no recession that economy still contracting but that the contraction is somewhat slowing…what b**l s**t!…, analysts- buffet/economy in shambles, Hogan/negative GDP growth and inflation owing to debasement of the dollar as well as deficit spending/pump-priming in the trillions, joker stein/economy a mess and continued job losses, new home sales down .6%; U.S. Home Prices Drop 6.8 Percent in April as Foreclosures Rise foreclosure sales up 2.4%, prices down 17% year over year, [$$] Market Suffers Some Technical Damage Stocks tumble on bleak outlook for world economy U.S. regulators close their 40th bank of the year , Next Major Move In Stock Market Will Be Down world economy to shrink by worse than previously predicted 2.9% and big difference between not getting worse and getting better, market got ahead of itself, stalled out, still depression/more job losses, higher oil-gas prices / higher interest rates / heavy debt to pare down is 1-3 year drag on economy, even if believed (I don’t) the labor dept. far better than expected job numbers by increased debt (spending) to produce same is not economically sound or sustainable, viz., record spending with record low revenues, rating cuts for bank sector, analysts concur in significant 5-15% (reality says 15-25%) pullback/correction for stocks , institutional selling, industrial production/construction down 1.1%, housing starts allegedly up but if believed will only increase the plethora of unsold inventories, empire manufacturing index suffers unexpectedly severe decline…daaaah!, credit dard defaults at record high, analysts concur that fundamentals don’t support stock rally and that pac money(defacto bribes) might derail any meaningful reform/regulation which is of concern to the frauds on wall street who should be prosecuted, record loss of wealth, higher gas prices, job losses, higher interest rates / yields, higher commodity prices, higher deficits, hyperinflation, record continuing unemployment claims at 6.8 million, worthless Weimar dollar crashing, money supply exploding with hyperinflation/higher interest rates coming, budget deficit at new highs and trade deficit worse than expected, analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets , new record for continuing unemployment claims, fed downgrades outlook that previously provided b.s. for suckers’ rally, record low for new housing starts, etc.) AND BULL S**T ALONE (ie., BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... , world economy to shrink by worse than previously predicted 2.9% and big difference between not getting worse and getting better, leading indicators up far more than expected … bull s**t …based in large part on inflated stock price component … more bull s**t … new reform with same old frauds say increased capital requirements and oversight of the overseers/rating agencies (riiiiight!…same old,same old - already have but no will to enforce existing laws, etc.), analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... foreclosure sales up, prices down , ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
(6-30) SECULAR BEAR MARKET SUCKERS’ RALLY TO END WELL OFF SESSION LOWS TYPICAL END OF QUARTER FRAUD/WINDOW DRESSING TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED Job losses / job concerns realistically weigh on confidence, real estate values/prices continue downward trend as per Case / Shiller Index (-18.1%, -21% in california) Consumer confidence suffers steep fall... Home prices post 18% annual drop... Worldwide Depression: Review of Global Markets . Four banks fail, bringing 2009 tally to 19 more than all of 2008 at a total thus far of 44 Dollar Falls Most in Month as China Urges New Reserve Currency Gerald Celente speaks on Cap and Trade and other handicaps to the US economy HOW MANY TIMES CAN THE WALL STREET FRAUDS, WITH CYCLICAL REGULARITY, DO THE SAME OR SIMILAR FRAUD WITH IMPUNITY (STILL NOT ONE PROSECUTION IN THE MOST RECENT MASSIVE SECURITIES FRAUD, BUT PLENTY OF OBFUSCATION EMANATING FROM THE PERPETRATORS AS WELL AS THOSE WHO SHOULD BE PROSECUTING /PURSUING THEM) NOW REFLATING THE STOCK MARKET BUBBLE BASED UPON NOTHING AT ALL (BAD NEWS,FRAUD AND BULL S**T), CHANGING ACCOUNTING RULES TO FACILITATE THE COMMISSIONABLE BUBBLE FROM WHICH THE SOURCE OF FUNDS TO EVEN PAY BACK LOANS TO AVOID SCRUTINY OF THEIR NEW FRAUD IS GENERATED [SAVINGS AND LOAN DEBACLE, DOT.COM SELL THE SIZZLE BUST /DEBACLE, RECYCLED /REPACKAGED /RESOLD /RECOMMISSIONED WORTHLESS COLLATERALIZED SECURITIES /PAPER (IN THE TRILLIONS YET STILL NOT ADDRESSED), ETC., THE FRAUDS ARE GETTING LARGER, HENCE THE RIDICULOUS TOO BIG TO FAIL MANTRA … HOW PATHETIC! … THAT MONEY HAS TO COME FROM SOMEPLACE, IE., PRINTING, CREATING, YOUR POCKETS, … NOT OUT OF THIN AIR! ] TYPICAL END OF QUARTER FRAUD/WINDOW DRESSING TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED [ Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years ] AND COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING [ Goldman Sachs on pace for record bonuses: report (Reuters) ] BASED ON CONTINUED BAD NEWS ( ie., BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... , personal income up modest .2% and spending down, China calls for new reserve currency to supplant worthless dollar Dollar And Stocks Drop As China Calls For New Global Currency , continuing unemployment claims at or near record 627,000, weekly unemployment claims up 15,000, and GDP contraction –5.5%, all worse than expected (lennar wider than expected quarterly loss rallies stock…riiiiight!) Jobless claims rise; GDP dips in 1Q ; soothing words/b.s. from fed which previously predicted no recession that economy still contracting but that the contraction is somewhat slowing…what b**l s**t!…, analysts- buffet/economy in shambles, Hogan/negative GDP growth and inflation owing to debasement of the dollar as well as deficit spending/pump-priming in the trillions, joker stein/economy a mess and continued job losses, new home sales down .6%; U.S. Home Prices Drop 6.8 Percent in April as Foreclosures Rise foreclosure sales up 2.4%, prices down 17% year over year, [$$] Market Suffers Some Technical Damage Stocks tumble on bleak outlook for world economy U.S. regulators close their 40th bank of the year , Next Major Move In Stock Market Will Be Down world economy to shrink by worse than previously predicted 2.9% and big difference between not getting worse and getting better, market got ahead of itself, stalled out, still depression/more job losses, higher oil-gas prices / higher interest rates / heavy debt to pare down is 1-3 year drag on economy, even if believed (I don’t) the labor dept. far better than expected job numbers by increased debt (spending) to produce same is not economically sound or sustainable, viz., record spending with record low revenues, rating cuts for bank sector, analysts concur in significant 5-15% (reality says 15-25%) pullback/correction for stocks , institutional selling, industrial production/construction down 1.1%, housing starts allegedly up but if believed will only increase the plethora of unsold inventories, empire manufacturing index suffers unexpectedly severe decline…daaaah!, credit dard defaults at record high, analysts concur that fundamentals don’t support stock rally and that pac money(defacto bribes) might derail any meaningful reform/regulation which is of concern to the frauds on wall street who should be prosecuted, record loss of wealth, higher gas prices, job losses, higher interest rates / yields, higher commodity prices, higher deficits, hyperinflation, record continuing unemployment claims at 6.8 million, worthless Weimar dollar crashing, money supply exploding with hyperinflation/higher interest rates coming, budget deficit at new highs and trade deficit worse than expected, analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets Jim Rogers: “The Worst is Not Over” 6/9/2009 , new record for continuing unemployment claims, fed downgrades outlook that previously provided b.s. for suckers’ rally, record low for new housing starts, etc.) AND BULL S**T ALONE (ie., BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... , world economy to shrink by worse than previously predicted 2.9% and big difference between not getting worse and getting better, leading indicators up far more than expected … bull s**t …based in large part on inflated stock price component … more bull s**t … new reform with same old frauds say increased capital requirements and oversight of the overseers/rating agencies (riiiiight!…same old,same old - already have but no will to enforce existing laws, etc.), analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... The Next Bubble Is Here. Have You Bought In? foreclosure sales up, prices down , ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
Tiny Tim says dollar assets safe... Laughter from audience... Why The Chinese Laughed At Geithner Paul Craig Roberts | The red ink that Washington is generating is a far greater threat to Americans than any foreign “enemies.”
(6-3) ONLY MODEST LOSSES RELATIVE TO REALITY WITH PROGRAMMED SHORT-COVERING/SUCKERS RALLY INTO THE CLOSE TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED BASED ON CONTINUED BAD NEWS ( ie., mortgage apps. down, service sector job losses/factory orders worse than expected, new record continuing unemployment claims, bernanke spend more money you don’t have but cut debilitating deficit…riiiiight…sounds like a plan with more job losses to come, etc., Economic data disappoint, indicate slow recovery Worse-than-expected economic data thwarts rally Jobless rates in U.S. cities zoom higher in April Sector Snap: Homebuilders tumble (AP) As the Dollar Falls Off the Cliff … Bernanke warns on deficits as Treasury rates rise ----- GOV'T OWES RECORD $63.8 TRILLION... The Big Collapse Is Very Near Dollar Declines as Nations Mull Reserve Currency Alternative AND BULL S**T ALONE (ie., $100 Billion Bailout For IMF Tagged On To War Funding Bill Economic recovery is wishful thinking Gold, Silver Climb as Dollar Falls OPEC: OIL COULD REACH $90... ----- , ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
(6-2) SUCKERS’ RALLY CONTINUES TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED BASED ON CONTINUED BAD NEWS The Big Collapse Is Very Near U.S. auto sales drop, but rays of stability seen Economic crisis boosts distrust of business: watchdog Dollar Declines as Nations Mull Reserve Currency Alternative Grand Theft Auto: How Stevie the Rat bankrupted GM Gold, Silver Climb as Dollar Falls Home foreclosure sales up, no profit discount car sales better than expected
…When measured in ounces of Gold, the DOW has been in a secular bear market since peaking in late 1999. (Click charts, courtesy of stockcharts.com, for full size image). The markets, measured by the S&P500 (S&P500 Charts) and DIJA (DJIA Charts), may have recovered to new highs in 2007, but the DOW:Gold ratio told a different, truer story of just how unhealthy the US economy was…
BEWARE OF THE SUCKER'S RALLY? ‘…Most recently, the
S&P 500 soared 24 per cent over seven weeks ending in early January, only
to plunge to a new low. It was a fairly typical sucker’s rally and bear markets
often need more than one to create sufficient disillusionment for a definitive
bottom. The 2000–2002 bear market had three, with average gains of 21 per
cent in the Dow Jones Industrials over 45 days. The granddaddy of all bear
markets, 1929 –1932, had six false alarms with an average gain of 47 per cent.
And Japan’s ongoing bear saw the Nikkei rise by at least a third four times in
its first four years with 10 more false dawns since then. Bear markets
typically end with a whimper rather than a bang, casting doubt on the latest
recovery according to Hussman Econometrics, which analysed numerous US market
bottoms and bear market rallies. With the exception of the 1987 crash, the
month before the lowest point of a downturn saw a gradual descent. By contrast,
bear market rallies were preceded by steeper declines and had sharper rebounds.
Another characteristic of bear market rallies has been modest volume on the
rebound compared to the decline. The current recovery fits the pattern of bear
market rallies in terms of volume and the “V” shape of the trough. Analysts at
Bespoke Investment Group noted that there have been only seven other periods in
the past 110 years with rallies of similar magnitude for the Dow. Three
preceded the Great Depression, three came during the Depression and one in
1982…’
New record for
continuing unemployment claims and as with all government data, adp data, etc.,
is fudged to whatever way necessary to help froth the market. Short-covering
explaining part of what remains of this continuing suckers’ bear market rally
and as admonished by analyst at Farr Miller is a bull trap. How about plain old
bull crap! One
analyst (Craig Brown) points out that we’re not at the bottom yet: excerpt-‘ I hate repeating myself, but I do not
see the economy at bottom just yet, so in some respects I will keep repeating
myself until either other people wake up to this reality or something changes
to wake me up. The markets were
down a bit yesterday and, according to Bloomberg, they were down due to fears
of the stress test results. I don't fear them; I fear what they hide. I fear
that a reported 10 out of 19 banks failed when the tests were not at all
stringent enough. I fear that the government will soft-pedal the results to
make them bad enough to have a tad of credibility but not so bad that people
run for the exits. Don't buy my word for it, others are saying the same,
including Nouriel Roubini. Nouriel has been complaining for weeks on how the worst case
scenario in the stress tests is already rosier than reality.’ Some
perspective from Sajal… Excerpts – ie., …Mark
Hulbert: That bullish bandwagon. Commentary: Some
sentiment measures showing too much optimism Art Cashin:
"This rally is still somewhat suspect. Albert Edwards : "Despite one of the biggest
economics and profit collapses in history, US stocks have failed to get cheap
in the same way that they have in Europe or Japan. My concern is that
the US equity bear market has not yet fully played out. "The
current pop in the market is not dissimilar to the many bear market rallies
between 1929-1933, where signs of economic stabilisation were met with 25% plus
rallies... This optimism was subsequently crushed." Charles Allmon … He still thinks the stock market
could decline to 3,200-4,200 on the Dow by 2011-2012 -- and that it could cross
the price of gold. Jim
Bianco: "I don't think we are getting out of this for
a long while. This has been a lousy stock rally. … …traders living in a
fool's paradise if they continue to drive the markets higher by buying stocks
based on earnings that are down, say, 50 percent from this time last year, only
because they're not down 75 percent… Diane Garnick, investment strategist at Invesco...In an interview on Tech Ticker, Garnick says that
companies are beating earnings expectations in the first quarter by Draconian
cost-cutting, an unsustainable strategy for long-term growth. More importantly,
although companies are beating profit estimates, thanks to the cost-cutting,
they are missing expectations for revenue, she says. Further, cost-cutting via
layoffs hurts the economy as a whole, Garnick argues, because the unemployed
spend less money… U.S. Economy: GDP Shrinks in
Worst Slump in 50 Years "You
have to balance hope with reality," says Doug Sandler, chief equity
officer at Riverfront Investment Group. Sandler tells Andrew O'Day "this
is a good example of a year where you probably have a lot of hope early, then
the reality coming through…” …[The upshot is that the fraud continues in churn-and-earn
fashion with investors, taxpayer, etc., getting burned for the sake of wall
street greed/fraud. The lunatic wall street frauds’ desperation linked to their
substantial crimes and booty which must be disgorged through prosecution,
especially since none of the real problems (hundreds
of trillions of fraudulent/worthless securities, etc. - Analyst Andre Egleshion
puts the amount at $600+trillion) have been
addressed much less solved; hence, virtually all problems remain and there is
but an infinitesimally small fraction of the capital and resources necessary to
solve them thanks to fraud, incompetence, lack of knowledge/ability, greed,
etc.]. U.S. Economy in 2nd Straight Quarter
of Steep Decline "You have to balance hope with reality," says
Doug Sandler, chief equity officer at Riverfront Investment Group. Sandler
tells Andrew O'Day "this is a good example of a year where you probably
have a lot of hope early, then the reality coming through Wall Street sags on oil; S&P ends
worst week in 2 months Following Chrysler, GM slashing U.S.
dealers SEC lawyers probed for insider trading
GM, Chrysler to drop 1,900 dealers by
end of 2010 The Financial Storm Obama Says U.S. Long-Term Debt Load ‘Unsustainable’ “The Worst Is Yet to Come” China’s yuan ’set to usurp US dollar’
as world’s reserve currency Former Treasury Official who Devised
Formula for Rate-Setting Based on Outlook for Inflation and Growth Warns that
Inflation Looms, Slams Fed Policy Dr. Doom: Capitalism Could Fail Like Communism New York Fed: Most Powerful Financial Institution You’ve Never
Heard Of along with the missing $4 trillion you’ve never heard of Home
Prices Drop Most on Record... Federal Hiring Frenzy......average pay $75,419 A Coming Flood of Equity Issuance, aka
The Dilution Solution Fed cut banks' deficits after negotiations: sounds like a
plan…riiiiight!…report
Buffett's
Berkshire has first loss since 2001
Are stocks a loser's bet?YES!
Deficits soar even with rosy assumptions in new Obama
budget... America is broke. How broke? White House forecasts higher budget
deficit
US red ink rising even higher, to $1.8T Deficits soar even with rosy assumptions in new Obama
budget... STIMULUS WATCH: Early road aid leaves out neediest;
Auditors can't track transportation funds... Gas price jumps to 6-month high... Six GM executives sell more than 200,000 shares
John Hussman: Post Crash Bubbles
…Unfortunately, “fear” lows are only evident in hindsight, because as we saw in
2008, a deeply oversold market can become spectacularly more oversold before
recovering, and the “fast, furious” spikes off of those lows are often followed
by steep failures.... Fed
Inspector General Claims She Does Not Know Where Trillions Went Rep. Alan Grayson | Inspector General Elizabeth Coleman
responds that the IG does not know and is not tracking where this money is. Recovery? What Recovery? Newsweek | Don’t tell me that the economy is
getting better, or has even hit rock bottom. Prospects
of a quick economic recovery are but fool’s gold Boosting The Dying Dollar With A False Rally Suckers rally sets up the unwinding of the market,
Rally just like in 1933, wealth producers becoming impoverished, Fed officer
busted for fraud, troubles in the Economy are far beyond fixing,
interdependence of banks around the world expected to worsen economic problems.
New York Fed chairman Friedman
abruptly resigns BEWARE
OF THE SUCKER'S RALLY? Betrayal of the People By Wall Street, Banks, and
Government FLASH:
Treasury Borrows Record $361 Billion for 2nd Quarter... The Great Geithner Coverup Obama Maintains His Perfect
Batting Average for Appointing Failed Insiders to Key Economic Posts
Secretary of Labor Reich:
Unemployment Numbers Show We’re Already In a Depression
Corporate CFR Members Get Most of the Bailout Money New American | Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner served as a staff member of the New York City-based Council on Foreign Relations before being hired in 2003 to head the New York City branch of the Federal Reserve Bank.Watch out for the fake government stress tests (they lie about everything!). Note the delay in the rollout. Bank analyst Cassidy says bank plan a failure. Business week business analyst /reporter says (tongue in cheek) the optimism (irrational exuberance) must be the advent of spring and the birds chirping (in the heads of the wall street lunatic/frauds…cukoos). Analysts/Economists comments include: slow release of stress test results, details and accuracy of data crucial for stress tests (good luck!), things have not bottomed out but pace of decline has slowed somewhat, bleak outlook for GM, Chrysler and bankruptcy probably necessary because of legacy costs, and public pension funds with ridiculously rich benefits the next shoe to drop. Oxdown Gazette sums up the crucial story | ‘The 12 trillion that is being floated to insolvent US banks is essentially being looted in the paper economy’ (ie., churn and earn by wall street fraudsters who must be prosecuted and forced disgorgement/forfeiture in the massive securities fraud that still goes unmentioned though the source of this economic debacle, etc.). Four more banks closed by regulators, this years closures exceeding all of 2008 as depression continues John Letzing, MarketWatch April 24, 2009 SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Four banks in Georgia, Michigan, California and Idaho were closed by regulators Friday, costing the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s deposit insurance fund nearly $700 million as the effects of the credit crisis continued rippling throughout the U.S. economy. Kennesaw, Ga.-based American Southern Bank marked the 26th bank failure of the year and the fifth in the state of Georgia, the FDIC said. Farmington Hills, Mich.-based Michigan Heritage Bank then became the 27th failure of 2009, followed by the closure of Calabasas, Ca.-based First Bank of Beverly Hills. Alpharetta, Ga.-based Bank of North Georgia has agreed to assume American Southern Bank's deposits, the FDIC said in a statement…
All reasons for previous reality plunge have been previously covered
and warned of here in real time; ie., new meaningless FASB accounting standards
which wall street frauds rallied on now have sold off on, worse to come in
credit defaults/losses, leading indicators down again, etc.. April 17 (Bloomberg) -- David Tice, the chief
portfolio strategist for bear markets at Federated Investors Inc., said
the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will probably plunge about 62 percent.
He spoke during a Bloomberg Television interview today. The Federated Prudent
Bear Fund that he founded returned 6.7 percent last year as the S&P 500
plunged 38 percent, the most since 1937. Tice said the benchmark index for U.S.
stocks may slump to about 325. It closed today at 865.30. The measure has
surged 28 percent since March 9, the most in five weeks since the 1930s. SUCKER'S RALLY APPROACHING AN END by Peter
Cooper: Whatever the technical reason for the
25 percent rise in the S&P over the past five weeks, or a more modest eight
percent bounce in GCC regional stock prices, the absurdness of this sucker’s rally
ought to be obvious to all. Unemployment is still rising, house prices are
still falling, and the fundamentals of bank balance sheets are still
deteriorating with total bad debts unknown except that we know they must be
getting worse. Global trade fell off a cliff in the first quarter of the year.
Even Mercedes car sales to the oil rich of the GCC fell 23 per cent. The
collapse of the world’s second largest economy, Japan, has been unprecedented.
Bad news coming … The stock market pattern in 2008-9
has so far been a mirror image of the crash of 1929-30 with a halving of prices
from the autumn followed by a 25 per cent rally from March lows. In April 1930
stocks moved sideways and then they crashed another 50 per cent into the
summer… New record
continuing unemployment claims in excess of 6 million, -11% for new home sales
(unexpected but stocks and even homebuilders rallied), Bloomberg reports $13
trillion (much unaccounted for) taxpayer/bailout funds spent/lent/stolen by who
knows what/where/how (ie.,replace stolen funds?, etc.), second largest mall co.
to bankruptcy with more to come along with more commercial real estate
foreclosures. ‘…initial
claims for the week ending April 11 totaled 610,000, which is down more than
expected from the prior week, but continuing claims climbed more than expected
to a new record of 6.02 million. Separately, housing starts disappointed
investors hoping to find signs of a recovery in home building. Housing starts
for March totaled 510,000, which was below the 540,000 starts that were
expected and down from the prior month. Meanwhile, building permits in March
totaled 513,000, which is below the 549,000 permits that were expected, down
from February…’
SUCKER'S
RALLY APPROACHING AN END by Peter Cooper: Whatever the technical reason for the 25 percent rise in the
S&P over the past five weeks, or a more modest eight percent bounce in GCC
regional stock prices, the absurdness of this sucker’s rally ought to be
obvious to all. Unemployment is still rising, house prices are still falling,
and the fundamentals of bank balance sheets are still deteriorating with total
bad debts unknown except that we know they must be getting worse. Global trade
fell off a cliff in the first quarter of the year. Even Mercedes car sales to
the oil rich of the GCC fell 23 per cent. The collapse of the world’s second
largest economy, Japan, has been unprecedented.
Bad news coming
… The stock market pattern in 2008-9 has so far been a mirror image of the
crash of 1929-30 with a halving of prices from the autumn followed by a 25 per
cent rally from March lows. In April 1930 stocks moved sideways and then they
crashed another 50 per cent into the summer. What possible reason is there for
optimism to believe that history will not repeat itself? Government stimulus
packages have more than likely been too small and too late to prevent another
down leg in stocks, and will take time to revive the real economy, if indeed
they can do so. They might just stop the worst possible scenario but are they
going to prevent the plunge downwards? Governments have not managed it so far.
Consumers and
unemployment
…It will take more than weasel words from US bankers and ‘green shoots’ in the
waffle of President Obama to put things right. Eventually global stock markets
will reach a bottom but they are not close to having visited it just yet. Wall
Street and its friends are playing investors as suckers but they are in danger
of overdoing it. For once these guys are impoverished where will the next bunch
of fools come from? Goldman Sachs' (GS)
results this week might well mark the top of the rally, beyond that the only
way is down.
THE FOLLOWING AT LEAST TO PREVIOUS (7-6-09) IS MUST READ:
April 17 (Bloomberg) -- David Tice, the chief portfolio strategist for bear markets at Federated Investors Inc., said the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will probably plunge about 62 percent. He spoke during a Bloomberg Television interview today. The Federated Prudent Bear Fund that he founded returned 6.7 percent last year as the S&P 500 plunged 38 percent, the most since 1937. Tice said the benchmark index for U.S. stocks may slump to about 325. It closed today at 865.30. The measure has surged 28 percent since March 9, the most in five weeks since the 1930s.
SUCKER'S
RALLY APPROACHING AN END by Peter Cooper: Whatever the technical reason for the 25 percent rise in the
S&P over the past five weeks, or a more modest eight percent bounce in GCC
regional stock prices, the absurdness of this sucker’s rally ought to be
obvious to all. Unemployment is still rising, house prices are still falling,
and the fundamentals of bank balance sheets are still deteriorating with total
bad debts unknown except that we know they must be getting worse. Global trade fell
off a cliff in the first quarter of the year. Even Mercedes car sales to the
oil rich of the GCC fell 23 per cent. The collapse of the world’s second
largest economy, Japan, has been unprecedented.
Bad news coming
… The stock market pattern in 2008-9 has so far been a mirror image of the
crash of 1929-30 with a halving of prices from the autumn followed by a 25 per
cent rally from March lows. In April 1930 stocks moved sideways and then they
crashed another 50 per cent into the summer. What possible reason is there for
optimism to believe that history will not repeat itself? Government stimulus
packages have more than likely been too small and too late to prevent another
down leg in stocks, and will take time to revive the real economy, if indeed
they can do so. They might just stop the worst possible scenario but are they
going to prevent the plunge downwards? Governments have not managed it so far.
Consumers and
unemployment
…It will take more than weasel words from US bankers and ‘green shoots’ in the
waffle of President Obama to put things right. Eventually global stock markets
will reach a bottom but they are not close to having visited it just yet. Wall
Street and its friends are playing investors as suckers but they are in danger
of overdoing it. For once these guys are impoverished where will the next bunch
of fools come from? Goldman Sachs' (GS)
results this week might well mark the top of the rally, beyond that the only
way is down.
Madman Cramer – the ultimate contrarian indicator - CRAMER'S CALL: ANOTHER RALLY TOP INDICATOR Greg Feirman Wow, the bulls are really feeling good. “Wells Fargo Carries The Day” and the S&P and Dow closed at 2 months high and the Nasdaq is near its highs for the year. On Mad Money this evening, Cramer went so far as to call “a turn in the economy”, saying “the facts have changed”, “the situation has clearly improved” and “things are getting better”. This isn’t the first time Cramer has called a bottom and he’s been wrong before (For example, see “Cramer Declares The End Of The Bear Market” , Top Gun FP, July 31, 2008). The market topped out a couple weeks later. On Monday October 6, Cramer went on the today show and told people to sell any stock money they might need in the next five years. The market bottomed that Friday. It could run another couple weeks but this rally is running thin. Methinks me smells a top…..
Rational View Courtesy of ETF.COM: ‘…Due to our expectations of continued weakness in the financial sector, the looming deterioration of commercial real estate, the credit markets tepid backing of the equity rally, and the still very shaky and highly volatile global economy, it's our view at ETFdesk.com the recent run-up in stocks is unwarranted and presents an overly optimistic view of the months ahead. We believe investors should consider taking short term profits or use the recent run to reduce equity exposure they are weary of. We also believe investment grade debt (NYSEArca: LQD - News) represents an opportunity for investors seeking beaten down prices without the downside volatility of equities…’
Art Hogan recently summed up choosing stocks in
this environment thusly: ‘pick the best-looking horse at the glue factory’…..I
think he was as a courtesy to his industry overly generous. The administration
pitches hardballs to the auto industry while continuing to pitch powder puffs
to the wall street frauds who have perpetrated the largest (securities) fraud
in recorded history, turning a cyclical downturn into what is now unavoidably
depression, putting beleagered taxpayers in the unfathomable position of
funders/guarantors of the scam/fraud in bailing out the perpetrators of the
crimes (bush’s infamous base) who have financially benefited enormously (fees,
commissions, spreads, points, salaries, expenses, bonuses, etc.) from their
fraud/crimes. Still not even one prosecution from this
administration even though disgorgement, the legal remedy among other criminal
penalties, would aid the defacto bankrupt u.s. treasury!
ON WHETHER
BEN BERNANKE HAS REDEEMED HIMSELF AND WHAT THAT MEANS FOR STOCKS:
I do not
think so. On the contrary, I think what the government is doing and its
economic "dream team" under Mr. Bernanke and Mr. Geithner and Mr.
Summers are going to be, from a longer term point of view, rather negative.
But, you understand, we can all sit here and say it will all end in disaster.
That I'm sure. But, in the meantime, we can have big moves in markets.
On the new bad assets purchase plan:
I think he's doing the politically expedient thing from a very short term perspective. If you have cracks in your walls and just put paint on it, it will hide them and then you sell your house. But it won't solve the problems of the cracks - it's the next owner and these are the children of the current taxpayer who will pay for it. Marc Faber: 'It Will All End in Disaster'
China calls for new global currency (AP) Why Goldman Sachs Should Return Its TARP Money (at Seeking Alpha) Marc Faber: 'It Will All End in Disaster' Congresswoman presses Geithner on connections to Goldman Sachs Gerald Celente Predicts Economic Armageddon by 2012 Geithner Plan Will Rob US Taxpayers: Stiglitz
It bears
repeating, so preposterous was 3-23-09 Pavlov dogs rally [conditioning to
associate what’s good for fraudulent wall street, viz., privatizing profits –
still not one prosecution for what now is the largest fraud/scam/swindle in the
history of this planet – and socializing the losses, is somehow positive for
america/the economy by the magnitude of this suckers’ bear market rally and
prior market manipulations] when the same created the instant crisis in the
first instance (don’t worry about the frauds on wall street, they’ll get their
commissions again on the way down as they did in creating this financial debacle/fraud
as they clamor for more taxpayer/treasury money). They’re still
printing/creating those worthless Weimar dollars like mad, China Urges New Money Reserve to Replace Dollar ,don’t know
what they’re doing, are clueless, and disingenuously seek to divert attention
from the missing/stolen/bilked $14 trillion of taxpayer money with the
subterfuge of outrage over the relatively miniscule though not unimportant
million dollar bonuses (AIG, etc.), so-called fixes/plans, etc., so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE
PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! What the Pros Say: US Is Now ‘Bankrupt’ US is Already Bankrupt: Analyst
U.S. Budget Office offers darker economic and deficit
outlook The Geithner-Summers-Bernanke Plan
to Prop Up Asset Prices Has Failed U.N. panel says world should ditch dollar
Fierman: How quickly things change…..
Some stats from today’s rally:
S&P: +54 (7.1%) to 823
Dow: +497 (+6.8%) to 7776
NYSE Up Volume: 1,866,836,012
NYSE Down Volume: 44,683,760
NYSE Total Volume: 1,914,836,622
It was just 2 weeks ago (March 9th) that the S&P closed at 12-year lows and
the stock market felt like it was forecasting the end of the world. We’ve now
rallied 22% in 2 weeks! But if we look at the catalysts for this rally, they
really don’t seem to justify such an explosive move. Citi said they were profitable in
the first two months of the year and JP Morgan (JPM)
and Bank of America (BAC) said they were too. The Fed initiated some serious quantitative easing.
And now Geithner’s toxic asset plan this morning. I agree with the Capital
Spectator when he wrote this morning:
‘Treasury Secretary Geithner has released his plan to mop-up the toxic assets held by banks that threaten their solvency and the global financial system. Accordingly, the plan purposes that private equity firms partner with the Fed to purchase bank assets at some discount set by the private firms at auction. Then the Fed will leverage the purchase six-fold to buy more bank assets and assume all the risk of leverage. In other words, private firms will set the price and then put up half the initial purchase price. The Fed will then put up non-recourse loans to purchase six times more debt at the same price to be owned by the joint venture partners. If the deal works private equity splits the booty equally. If the deal fails, the government loses upwards to six times taxpayer's money and private equity loses only its original equity match equal to 1/6 the total loss.
Flabergasted? Don't be. How often can you cut a deal where you get to set the price and your partner puts in six times your money and you split the profit. IF THESE DEAL TERMS DON'T UNDERSCORE WHY THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD NOT HANDLE YOUR MONEY AND WHY THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD STAY OUT OF BUSINESS, WHAT DOES? Other deal terms are that the Fed will designate the private equity players, at least initially. Could it be that the Fed is creating another pass-through mechanism to simultaneously bail out or reward its friends? If so, look for Goldman Sachs (GS), Merrill, Blackstone (BX), Carlye Group, Texas Pacific Group, and perhaps Bear Stearns to be players. Look also for the typical MOS of some Structured Investment Vehicle, not much different from the Maiden Lane III SIV, to backstop or divert money where it needs to be--by gratuitous selection that is. Oh, and never mind that Private Equity may be joined by the Libyan Investment Authority (LIA and Private Equity article by Financial Times) as Private Equity at present is having a bit of a liquidity crunch with their own deflated, illiquid assets. In short, the Geithner Toxic Asset Plan is just another bank bailout and footnote to this era of 'Dark Capitalism" where profits are reaped and losses socialized in an ever transparent way.’
Trevisani: ’…The beginning of quantitative easing calls all three ideas in question; it increases the supply of dollars effectively lowering US interest rates well below Europe’s; the need for such an unprecedented step undermines the hope for a US recovery; and a devaluing dollar cannot be a safe haven. Add the projected Federal deficits and the dollar begins to look very vulnerable. If the Europeans go down the same quantitative road then the dollar’s disabilities may be matched by the euro’s. But if they are not, then the Bernanke dollar call may not be an option to buy but a call to sell…’ China and most of the financial world outside the u.s. agrees with the latter. China Urges New Money Reserve to Replace Dollar Kremlin to Pitch New Currency...
EMBRACE THE BEAR By Rev Shark There is an old saying that in a bear market, we slide down the slope of hope. Unfortunately, we have seen plenty of good examples of how that works over the past year. We have had dozens of new initiatives to try to bolster the economy that create hope for a few days. The market will get excited and we'll have some big point gains, but then doubts begin to surface about how easily it will be to turn this economic supertanker that is going over a waterfall. The buying stalls out, a few dip-buying attempts are made, but eventually we break support levels and more downside ensues. That is classic bear market action but the standard Wall Street reaction is to not accept it…[The upshot is that the fraud continues in churn-and-earn fashion with investors, taxpayer, etc., getting burned for the sake of wall street greed/fraud. The lunatic wall street frauds’ desperation linked to their substantial crimes and booty which must be disgorged through prosecution, especially since none of the real problems (hundreds of trillions of fraudulent/worthless securities, etc.) have been addressed much less solved; hence, virtually all problems remain and there is but an infinitesimally small fraction of the capital and resources necessary to solve them thanks to fraud, incompetence, lack of knowledge/ability, greed, etc. - Analyst Andre Egleshion puts the amount at $600+trillion] …INVESTORS …..FOOLED (at least today) By Rev Shark …..realization that economic stimulus isn't going to be nearly as simple or easy (or effective) as it sounds. We aren't going to spend our way out of this economic spiral …We'd probably be better off if the government did less rather than more. The great likelihood is that the unintended consequences we suffer will prolong the whole cycle. We have to let some bad businesses and financial institutions fail…
HERE’S THE REAL DEAL:
SUMMARY/RECAP OF LORIMER
WILSON 3-17-09 ANALYSES/REVIEW
Harry Dent, Jr.
Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012
Russell Napier is the author of the book “Anatomy of the
Bear”, a professor at the Edinburgh Business School and a consultant to CLSA
Ltd. which is one of the top research houses in Asia. Napier’s research
indicates (and I paraphrase) that:
The S&P 500 will Decline to 400 by 2014 (the Dow 30 to 3800)
The S&P 500 will then undergo a major crash that will see U.S. equity
prices bottom at almost 50% below current levels (i.e. to 400 or less; the Dow
30 to 3800 or less) sometime around 2014 as Tobin’s “q” drops to 0.3 signaling
the end of the bear market, as it has done at the end of the four largest U.S.
market declines in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982.
U.S. Treasury Sales Could Collapse Leading to End of U.S. Dollar as Reserve
Currency
Robert R. Prechter Jr. is author of a number of newsletters and
books including “Elliott Wave Principle” (1978) in which he predicted the super
bull market of the 1980s; “At the Crest of the Tidal Wave – A Forecast of the
Great Bear Market” (1995) in which he predicted a slow motion economic
earthquake, brought about by a great asset mania, that would register 11 on the
financial Richter scale causing a collapse of historic proportions; and
“Conquer the Crash: You can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression” (2002)
in which he described the economic cataclysm that we are just beginning to
experience and advised how to position one’s self financially during that
period of time.
Depression is Imminent
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to
below 777 which was the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and
quite likely drop below 400 at one or more times during the bear market.
Regulator: Before Banks Collapsed, They Pleaded With Feds To Let Them Fudge Their Books Ryan Grim | Before financial institutions collapsed, they went to the Financial Accounting Standards Board, pleading for a change in mark-to-market accounting rules so that they can continue to appear to be solvent on their balance sheets and hence, continue to defraud the public as they are now once again trying to do. This says it all! Will FASB remain viable by resisting fudge/fraud factor. Suckers’ bear market rally ( Citigroup Inspired Bear Market Suckers’ Rally ) to keep the suckers suckered and commission dollars flowing to the frauds on wall street
Why we think this is a (suckers’) bear market rally:
Citing 13 reasons that the bear will continue in spite of this rally seems appropriate.
1. Current P/E: the current 20+ P/E on trailing “as reported earnings” is too high for this set of negative sales, earnings and dividends growth conditions.
2. Forward P/E: the projected 2010 S&P 500 earnings by Standard and Poor’s at about $40 would only support 800 at best (20 P/E), and more likely would support 600 (15 P/E), assuming there was a general recovery under way — before that time, the current market should sell for less than 800, and perhaps less than 600.
3. Earnings: profits are still declining in the aggregate
4. Dividend Yield: banks and other companies continue to cut dividends, reducing stock appeal and putting total return in question until dividends stabilize and begin to grow (historically dividends generated about 1/3 of total return for the S&P 500)
5. Revenue: overall sales are down — declining sales, earnings and dividends are not reasons for bullish markets.
6. World GDP Growth: credible parties (Goldman Sachs, IMF, and noteworthy individuals, such as Nouriel Roubini, predict worsening global economies) — until forecasts for improvements within 12 months or less for the US or world economies become prevalent, the market is unlikely to “anticipate” with a sustainable trend reversal to a bull
7. Government Intervention: the US and global economies are currently highly government policy dependent, and while policies are becoming more clear, they are not all revealed, and there are suggestions more may be needed — the resulting uncertainty warrants low valuation until government policies to “save” and “stimulate” economies are no longer the centerpiece of investor hopes and earnings prospects
8. Real Estate: the US and global real estate asset deflation continues with waves of negative impact on household and institutional wealth — until property prices stabilize, or are believed to be about to stabilize, a new bull market will have difficulty gaining traction.
9. Other Bank Shoes to Drop: the major banks have not yet experienced likely future write-downs associated with non-mortgage asset types, such as credit cards and auto loans.
10. Auto Industry: the fate of GM, Chrysler and the entire supply chain is uncertain with unknown government involvement.
11. LBOs: private equity firms built on leverage may not be able to continue to service and rollover the debt they used to make recent optimistic acquisitions — those debts could be a further burden on the financial sector.
12. Retirees and Pre-Retirees: the 55 and over crowd who control the largest portion of US private assets are not as likely to risk their life accumulations in stocks relative to bonds as they were in the boom times of the last couple of decades — that will delay the onset of a bull and subdue the extent of a bull when it occurs
13. Credit Availability: the credit and leverage availability that helped the US stock market recover from the 2002-2003 bottom is not available at this time to increase household expenditures and corporate capital investment — even the US government may be put on credit rationing by China, which today said it is “worried” about the credit quality of their US Treasury holdings, which has implications about their willingness to support the borrowing our “stimulus” programs require and assume to be available. By Richard Shaw
Analyst Andre Egleshion points to continuing effect of credit default swaps and pegs the amount of the worthless, fraudulent (previously sold, commissioned, repackaged, resold, re-commissioned, etc.) securities at $600-$675 TRILLION, their continued effect on money pit AIG, that fed’s received $11.7 trillion since 2008 yet refuses transparency as to where funds spent, who received same, etc., agrees with comment that shockingly no prosecutions yet, economy re-tooling, need for stiffer regulation, points to historical fact that fiat currencies and private central banks have consistently failed, sees hyperinflation with dollar weakness (printed/created like mad) and higher oil. Hopes for funny assets [in addition to funny money, other fraud, relaxation of rules/laws/enforcement (real asset values) (remember the exemption from RICO garnered by fraudulent wall street-those campaign contributions really pay off, etc.) ], spur suckers’ bear market short-covering rally to keep the suckers suckered and commission dollars flowing to the frauds on wall street so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! NOW LISTEN HERE, FOR THIS IS TRUTH!: There is not enough money in the entire world to cover the fraudulent securities foisted/commissioned/ distributed/sold by the wall street frauds/perpetrators which if assumed/guaranteed by the u.s. government (don’t forget that social security/medicare are already technically insolvent/bankrupt - all monies/reserves going into the general account and already and continually spent) will only guaranty the insolvency of / worthlessness of the currency of the u.s. treasury. Cost to buy protection against U.S. government default surges Frank just said that he wants to prosecute those who’ve caused this crisis…waxman was supposedly doing just that in part (fog of war fraud-360 tons of $100 dollar bills stolen), etc…. If they don’t do this as said, among others, they should be forced resign as complicit. THERE IS NO MYSTERY HERE; HENCE, NONE SHOULD BE AFRAID TO LOOK, PROSECUTE, AND FORCE DISGORGEMENT! Celente: U.S. Has Entered “The Greatest Depression” …‘… Watch for fake reports and continued jawboning/spin/b.s. regarding bailout/stimulus as they are desperate yet remain protective of the criminals who caused the crisis with their fraud in staggering amounts far beyond the substantial scam by madoff ($50 billion) who now audaciously from his $7 million NYC penthouse seeks ownership of same along with $62 million (only in systemically fraudulent america). Why are they not seeking disgorgement from the criminals who benefited from the huge multi-trillion dollar fraud they perpetrated? No one yet has asked tiny tim geithner where the missing $4 trillion at the fed is…Why? Then there’s the $2 trillion in taxpayer money, the destination of which the fed refuses disclosure of…Fed Hides Destination Of $2 Trillion In Bailout Money …Why? How? This is criminal activity of monumental proportion, yet protected by the bureaucratic complicit frauds (I’ve experienced this directly in my RICO case), damaging lives here and abroad. Then there’s also the illegal wars, war-profiteering, war crimes, etc., that have bankrupted this nation, killed many innocents, etc., [remember, ie., the 360 tons of hundred dollar bills flown into Iraq that democrats/land of fruits and nuts henry waxman (doesn’t he look like a hedgehog or some other rodent) the lying fraud talked endlessly about while republicans were at the helm, yet nothing…no prosecutions…the frauds who stole that money should put same in the failed ‘stimulus fraud pot’…at the least, etc.]. An analyst previously said 2011-2014 earliest for bottoming at best. Another analyst previously pointed out there has been not one prosecution thus far and the frauds on wall street should be prosecuted and forced disgorgement. …[The upshot is that the fraud continues in churn-and-earn fashion with investors, taxpayer, etc., getting burned for the sake of wall street greed/fraud. The lunatic wall street frauds’ desperation linked to their substantial crimes and booty which must be disgorged through prosecution, especially since none of the real problems (hundreds of trillions of fraudulent/worthless securities, etc. - Analyst Andre Egleshion puts the amount at $600+trillion) have been addressed much less solved; hence, virtually all problems remain and there is but an infinitesimally small fraction of the capital and resources necessary to solve them thanks to fraud, incompetence, lack of knowledge/ability, greed, etc.]. Analyst Frank Cochrane looks ahead to 4,000 to 6,000 on the DOW, 700 to 900 on the NASDAQ, and 425 to 625 on the S&P, and says spending/stimulus programs will not work, a point on which he is correct and the low end of his ranges closer to reality. Not Just a Few Bad Apples - Corruption is Systemic in America In case you believe that there are only “a couple of bad apples” in the United States, here is an off-the-top-of-his-head (I could give many, many more including my RICO case) list of corruption by leading pillars of american society.
HOW MANY TIMES CAN THE WALL STREET FRAUDS, WITH CYCLICAL REGULARITY, DO THE SAME OR SIMILAR FRAUD WITH IMPUNITY (STILL NOT ONE PROSECUTION IN THE MOST RECENT MASSIVE SECURITIES FRAUD, BUT PLENTY OF OBFUSCATION EMANATING FROM THE PERPETRATORS AS WELL AS THOSE WHO SHOULD BE PROSECUTING /PURSUING THEM) NOW REFLATING THE STOCK MARKET BUBBLE BASED UPON NOTHING AT ALL (BAD NEWS,FRAUD AND BULL S**T), CHANGING ACCOUNTING RULES TO FACILITATE THE COMMISSIONABLE BUBBLE FROM WHICH THE SOURCE OF FUNDS TO EVEN PAY BACK LOANS TO AVOID SCRUTINY OF THEIR NEW FRAUD IS GENERATED [SAVINGS AND LOAN DEBACLE, DOT.COM SELL THE SIZZLE BUST /DEBACLE, RECYCLED /REPACKAGED /RESOLD /RECOMMISSIONED WORTHLESS COLLATERALIZED SECURITIES /PAPER (IN THE TRILLIONS YET STILL NOT ADDRESSED), ETC., THE FRAUDS ARE GETTING LARGER, HENCE THE RIDICULOUS TOO BIG TO FAIL MANTRA … HOW PATHETIC! … THAT MONEY HAS TO COME FROM SOMEPLACE, IE., PRINTING, CREATING, YOUR POCKETS, … NOT OUT OF THIN AIR! ]
PREVIOUS 7-6,2-09, PREPOSTEROUS WAS THIS SURGE IN THE LAST 20 MINUTES INTO THE CLOSE FOR SECULAR BEAR MARKET SUCKERS’ RALLY PROGRAMMED TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED [ Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years ] AND COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING [ Goldman Sachs on pace for record bonuses: report (Reuters) [$$] Big Pay Packages Return to Wall Street as new fraud gains steam (at The Wall Street Journal Online) ] BASED ON CONTINUED BAD NEWS ( ie., BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... America’s Effective Unemployment Rate at 18.7%? US loses 467,000 jobs, unemployment at 9.5% 'We're in the Middle of a Crash': Black Swan... (7-2)Seven more banks fail, bringing 2009 tally to more than double all of 2008 at a total thus far of 52; Private sector sheds another 473,000 jobs in June... US lurching towards ‘debt explosion’ with long-term interest rates on course to double Jim Rogers Sells Dollars, Plans to Short Treasuries ‘Sucker’s Rally Beginning To Unwind’ daaaah…? Calls grow to supplant dollar as global currency China officials call for displacing dollar, in time Tracking Two Depressions, 1929 and now this HOW MANY TIMES CAN THE WALL STREET FRAUDS, WITH CYCLICAL REGULARITY, DO THE SAME OR SIMILAR FRAUD WITH IMPUNITY (STILL NOT ONE PROSECUTION IN THE MOST RECENT MASSIVE SECURITIES FRAUD, BUT PLENTY OF OBFUSCATION EMANATING FROM THE PERPETRATORS AS WELL AS THOSE WHO SHOULD BE PROSECUTING /PURSUING THEM) NOW REFLATING THE STOCK MARKET BUBBLE BASED UPON NOTHING AT ALL (BAD NEWS,FRAUD AND BULL S**T), CHANGING ACCOUNTING RULES TO FACILITATE THE COMMISSIONABLE BUBBLE FROM WHICH THE SOURCE OF FUNDS TO EVEN PAY BACK LOANS TO AVOID SCRUTINY OF THEIR NEW FRAUD IS GENERATED [SAVINGS AND LOAN DEBACLE, DOT.COM SELL THE SIZZLE BUST /DEBACLE, RECYCLED /REPACKAGED /RESOLD /RECOMMISSIONED WORTHLESS COLLATERALIZED SECURITIES /PAPER (IN THE TRILLIONS YET STILL NOT ADDRESSED), ETC., THE FRAUDS ARE GETTING LARGER, HENCE THE RIDICULOUS TOO BIG TO FAIL MANTRA … HOW PATHETIC! … THAT MONEY HAS TO COME FROM SOMEPLACE, IE., PRINTING, CREATING, YOUR POCKETS, … NOT OUT OF THIN AIR! ] TYPICAL END OF QUARTER FRAUD/WINDOW DRESSING TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED [ Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years ] AND COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING [ Goldman Sachs on pace for record bonuses: report (Reuters) ] BASED ON CONTINUED BAD NEWS ( ie., BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... , personal income up modest .2% and spending down, China calls for new reserve currency to supplant worthless dollar Dollar And Stocks Drop As China Calls For New Global Currency , continuing unemployment claims at or near record 627,000, weekly unemployment claims up 15,000, and GDP contraction –5.5%, all worse than expected (lennar wider than expected quarterly loss rallies stock…riiiiight!) Jobless claims rise; GDP dips in 1Q ; soothing words/b.s. from fed which previously predicted no recession that economy still contracting but that the contraction is somewhat slowing…what b**l s**t!…, analysts- buffet/economy in shambles, Hogan/negative GDP growth and inflation owing to debasement of the dollar as well as deficit spending/pump-priming in the trillions, joker stein/economy a mess and continued job losses, new home sales down .6%; U.S. Home Prices Drop 6.8 Percent in April as Foreclosures Rise foreclosure sales up 2.4%, prices down 17% year over year, [$$] Market Suffers Some Technical Damage Stocks tumble on bleak outlook for world economy U.S. regulators close their 40th bank of the year , Next Major Move In Stock Market Will Be Down world economy to shrink by worse than previously predicted 2.9% and big difference between not getting worse and getting better, market got ahead of itself, stalled out, still depression/more job losses, higher oil-gas prices / higher interest rates / heavy debt to pare down is 1-3 year drag on economy, even if believed (I don’t) the labor dept. far better than expected job numbers by increased debt (spending) to produce same is not economically sound or sustainable, viz., record spending with record low revenues, rating cuts for bank sector, analysts concur in significant 5-15% (reality says 15-25%) pullback/correction for stocks , institutional selling, industrial production/construction down 1.1%, housing starts allegedly up but if believed will only increase the plethora of unsold inventories, empire manufacturing index suffers unexpectedly severe decline…daaaah!, credit dard defaults at record high, analysts concur that fundamentals don’t support stock rally and that pac money(defacto bribes) might derail any meaningful reform/regulation which is of concern to the frauds on wall street who should be prosecuted, record loss of wealth, higher gas prices, job losses, higher interest rates / yields, higher commodity prices, higher deficits, hyperinflation, record continuing unemployment claims at 6.8 million, worthless Weimar dollar crashing, money supply exploding with hyperinflation/higher interest rates coming, budget deficit at new highs and trade deficit worse than expected, analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets , new record for continuing unemployment claims, fed downgrades outlook that previously provided b.s. for suckers’ rally, record low for new housing starts, etc.) AND BULL S**T ALONE (ie., BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... , world economy to shrink by worse than previously predicted 2.9% and big difference between not getting worse and getting better, leading indicators up far more than expected … bull s**t …based in large part on inflated stock price component … more bull s**t … new reform with same old frauds say increased capital requirements and oversight of the overseers/rating agencies (riiiiight!…same old,same old - already have but no will to enforce existing laws, etc.), analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... foreclosure sales up, prices down , ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
PREVIOUS 7-1-09, SELL / TAKE ANY PROFITS IN THIS SECULAR BEAR MARKET SUCKERS’ RALLY PROGRAMMED TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED [ Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years ] AND COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING [ Goldman Sachs on pace for record bonuses: report (Reuters) [$$] Big Pay Packages Return to Wall Street as new fraud gains steam (at The Wall Street Journal Online) ] BASED ON CONTINUED BAD NEWS ( ie., BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... Job losses / job concerns realistically weigh on confidence, real estate values/prices continue downward trend as per Case / Shiller Index (-18.1%, -21% in california) Gerald Celente speaks on Cap and Trade and other handicaps to the US economy HOW MANY TIMES CAN THE WALL STREET FRAUDS, WITH CYCLICAL REGULARITY, DO THE SAME OR SIMILAR FRAUD WITH IMPUNITY (STILL NOT ONE PROSECUTION IN THE MOST RECENT MASSIVE SECURITIES FRAUD, BUT PLENTY OF OBFUSCATION EMANATING FROM THE PERPETRATORS AS WELL AS THOSE WHO SHOULD BE PROSECUTING /PURSUING THEM) NOW REFLATING THE STOCK MARKET BUBBLE BASED UPON NOTHING AT ALL (BAD NEWS,FRAUD AND BULL S**T), CHANGING ACCOUNTING RULES TO FACILITATE THE COMMISSIONABLE BUBBLE FROM WHICH THE SOURCE OF FUNDS TO EVEN PAY BACK LOANS TO AVOID SCRUTINY OF THEIR NEW FRAUD IS GENERATED [SAVINGS AND LOAN DEBACLE, DOT.COM SELL THE SIZZLE BUST /DEBACLE, RECYCLED /REPACKAGED /RESOLD /RECOMMISSIONED WORTHLESS COLLATERALIZED SECURITIES /PAPER (IN THE TRILLIONS YET STILL NOT ADDRESSED), ETC., THE FRAUDS ARE GETTING LARGER, HENCE THE RIDICULOUS TOO BIG TO FAIL MANTRA … HOW PATHETIC! … THAT MONEY HAS TO COME FROM SOMEPLACE, IE., PRINTING, CREATING, YOUR POCKETS, … NOT OUT OF THIN AIR! ] TYPICAL END OF QUARTER FRAUD/WINDOW DRESSING TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED [ Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years ] AND COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING [ Goldman Sachs on pace for record bonuses: report (Reuters) ] BASED ON CONTINUED BAD NEWS ( ie., BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... , personal income up modest .2% and spending down, China calls for new reserve currency to supplant worthless dollar Dollar And Stocks Drop As China Calls For New Global Currency , continuing unemployment claims at or near record 627,000, weekly unemployment claims up 15,000, and GDP contraction –5.5%, all worse than expected (lennar wider than expected quarterly loss rallies stock…riiiiight!) Jobless claims rise; GDP dips in 1Q ; soothing words/b.s. from fed which previously predicted no recession that economy still contracting but that the contraction is somewhat slowing…what b**l s**t!…, analysts- buffet/economy in shambles, Hogan/negative GDP growth and inflation owing to debasement of the dollar as well as deficit spending/pump-priming in the trillions, joker stein/economy a mess and continued job losses, new home sales down .6%; U.S. Home Prices Drop 6.8 Percent in April as Foreclosures Rise foreclosure sales up 2.4%, prices down 17% year over year, [$$] Market Suffers Some Technical Damage Stocks tumble on bleak outlook for world economy U.S. regulators close their 40th bank of the year , Next Major Move In Stock Market Will Be Down world economy to shrink by worse than previously predicted 2.9% and big difference between not getting worse and getting better, market got ahead of itself, stalled out, still depression/more job losses, higher oil-gas prices / higher interest rates / heavy debt to pare down is 1-3 year drag on economy, even if believed (I don’t) the labor dept. far better than expected job numbers by increased debt (spending) to produce same is not economically sound or sustainable, viz., record spending with record low revenues, rating cuts for bank sector, analysts concur in significant 5-15% (reality says 15-25%) pullback/correction for stocks , institutional selling, industrial production/construction down 1.1%, housing starts allegedly up but if believed will only increase the plethora of unsold inventories, empire manufacturing index suffers unexpectedly severe decline…daaaah!, credit dard defaults at record high, analysts concur that fundamentals don’t support stock rally and that pac money(defacto bribes) might derail any meaningful reform/regulation which is of concern to the frauds on wall street who should be prosecuted, record loss of wealth, higher gas prices, job losses, higher interest rates / yields, higher commodity prices, higher deficits, hyperinflation, record continuing unemployment claims at 6.8 million, worthless Weimar dollar crashing, money supply exploding with hyperinflation/higher interest rates coming, budget deficit at new highs and trade deficit worse than expected, analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets , new record for continuing unemployment claims, fed downgrades outlook that previously provided b.s. for suckers’ rally, record low for new housing starts, etc.) AND BULL S**T ALONE (ie., BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... , world economy to shrink by worse than previously predicted 2.9% and big difference between not getting worse and getting better, leading indicators up far more than expected … bull s**t …based in large part on inflated stock price component … more bull s**t … new reform with same old frauds say increased capital requirements and oversight of the overseers/rating agencies (riiiiight!…same old,same old - already have but no will to enforce existing laws, etc.), analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... foreclosure sales up, prices down , ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
PREVIOUS 7-1-09, 6-30-09, SECULAR BEAR MARKET SUCKERS’ RALLY TO END WELL OFF SESSION LOWS TYPICAL END OF QUARTER FRAUD/WINDOW DRESSING TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED Job losses / job concerns realistically weigh on confidence, real estate values/prices continue downward trend as per Case / Shiller Index (-18.1%, -21% in california) Consumer confidence suffers steep fall... Home prices post 18% annual drop... Worldwide Depression: Review of Global Markets . Four banks fail, bringing 2009 tally to 19 more than all of 2008 at a total thus far of 44 Dollar Falls Most in Month as China Urges New Reserve Currency Gerald Celente speaks on Cap and Trade and other handicaps to the US economy HOW MANY TIMES CAN THE WALL STREET FRAUDS, WITH CYCLICAL REGULARITY, DO THE SAME OR SIMILAR FRAUD WITH IMPUNITY (STILL NOT ONE PROSECUTION IN THE MOST RECENT MASSIVE SECURITIES FRAUD, BUT PLENTY OF OBFUSCATION EMANATING FROM THE PERPETRATORS AS WELL AS THOSE WHO SHOULD BE PROSECUTING /PURSUING THEM) NOW REFLATING THE STOCK MARKET BUBBLE BASED UPON NOTHING AT ALL (BAD NEWS,FRAUD AND BULL S**T), CHANGING ACCOUNTING RULES TO FACILITATE THE COMMISSIONABLE BUBBLE FROM WHICH THE SOURCE OF FUNDS TO EVEN PAY BACK LOANS TO AVOID SCRUTINY OF THEIR NEW FRAUD IS GENERATED [SAVINGS AND LOAN DEBACLE, DOT.COM SELL THE SIZZLE BUST /DEBACLE, RECYCLED /REPACKAGED /RESOLD /RECOMMISSIONED WORTHLESS COLLATERALIZED SECURITIES /PAPER (IN THE TRILLIONS YET STILL NOT ADDRESSED), ETC., THE FRAUDS ARE GETTING LARGER, HENCE THE RIDICULOUS TOO BIG TO FAIL MANTRA … HOW PATHETIC! … THAT MONEY HAS TO COME FROM SOMEPLACE, IE., PRINTING, CREATING, YOUR POCKETS, … NOT OUT OF THIN AIR! ] TYPICAL END OF QUARTER FRAUD/WINDOW DRESSING TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED [ Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years ] AND COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING [ Goldman Sachs on pace for record bonuses: report (Reuters) ] BASED ON CONTINUED BAD NEWS ( ie., BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... , personal income up modest .2% and spending down, China calls for new reserve currency to supplant worthless dollar Dollar And Stocks Drop As China Calls For New Global Currency , continuing unemployment claims at or near record 627,000, weekly unemployment claims up 15,000, and GDP contraction –5.5%, all worse than expected (lennar wider than expected quarterly loss rallies stock…riiiiight!) Jobless claims rise; GDP dips in 1Q ; soothing words/b.s. from fed which previously predicted no recession that economy still contracting but that the contraction is somewhat slowing…what b**l s**t!…, analysts- buffet/economy in shambles, Hogan/negative GDP growth and inflation owing to debasement of the dollar as well as deficit spending/pump-priming in the trillions, joker stein/economy a mess and continued job losses, new home sales down .6%; U.S. Home Prices Drop 6.8 Percent in April as Foreclosures Rise foreclosure sales up 2.4%, prices down 17% year over year, [$$] Market Suffers Some Technical Damage Stocks tumble on bleak outlook for world economy U.S. regulators close their 40th bank of the year , Next Major Move In Stock Market Will Be Down world economy to shrink by worse than previously predicted 2.9% and big difference between not getting worse and getting better, market got ahead of itself, stalled out, still depression/more job losses, higher oil-gas prices / higher interest rates / heavy debt to pare down is 1-3 year drag on economy, even if believed (I don’t) the labor dept. far better than expected job numbers by increased debt (spending) to produce same is not economically sound or sustainable, viz., record spending with record low revenues, rating cuts for bank sector, analysts concur in significant 5-15% (reality says 15-25%) pullback/correction for stocks , institutional selling, industrial production/construction down 1.1%, housing starts allegedly up but if believed will only increase the plethora of unsold inventories, empire manufacturing index suffers unexpectedly severe decline…daaaah!, credit dard defaults at record high, analysts concur that fundamentals don’t support stock rally and that pac money(defacto bribes) might derail any meaningful reform/regulation which is of concern to the frauds on wall street who should be prosecuted, record loss of wealth, higher gas prices, job losses, higher interest rates / yields, higher commodity prices, higher deficits, hyperinflation, record continuing unemployment claims at 6.8 million, worthless Weimar dollar crashing, money supply exploding with hyperinflation/higher interest rates coming, budget deficit at new highs and trade deficit worse than expected, analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets Jim Rogers: “The Worst is Not Over” 6/9/2009 , new record for continuing unemployment claims, fed downgrades outlook that previously provided b.s. for suckers’ rally, record low for new housing starts, etc.) AND BULL S**T ALONE (ie., BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... , world economy to shrink by worse than previously predicted 2.9% and big difference between not getting worse and getting better, leading indicators up far more than expected … bull s**t …based in large part on inflated stock price component … more bull s**t … new reform with same old frauds say increased capital requirements and oversight of the overseers/rating agencies (riiiiight!…same old,same old - already have but no will to enforce existing laws, etc.), analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... The Next Bubble Is Here. Have You Bought In? foreclosure sales up, prices down , ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
PREVIOUS 6-29-09, Worthless dollar/High oil price stock rally…riiiiight!...Then there’s the madoff propaganda event Fraudster Madoff gets 150 years, with prosecutors patting themselves on the back when the reality is that there has been not even one prosecution in the massive securities fraud which benefited the wall street frauds greatly and make madoff look like a piker. Four banks fail, bringing 2009 tally to 19 more than all of 2008 at a total thus far of 44 Dollar Falls Most in Month as China Urges New Reserve Currency Gerald Celente speaks on Cap and Trade and other handicaps to the US economy HOW MANY TIMES CAN THE WALL STREET FRAUDS, WITH CYCLICAL REGULARITY, DO THE SAME OR SIMILAR FRAUD WITH IMPUNITY (STILL NOT ONE PROSECUTION IN THE MOST RECENT MASSIVE SECURITIES FRAUD, BUT PLENTY OF OBFUSCATION EMANATING FROM THE PERPETRATORS AS WELL AS THOSE WHO SHOULD BE PROSECUTING /PURSUING THEM) NOW REFLATING THE STOCK MARKET BUBBLE BASED UPON NOTHING AT ALL (BAD NEWS,FRAUD AND BULL S**T), CHANGING ACCOUNTING RULES TO FACILITATE THE COMMISSIONABLE BUBBLE FROM WHICH THE SOURCE OF FUNDS TO EVEN PAY BACK LOANS TO AVOID SCRUTINY OF THEIR NEW FRAUD IS GENERATED [SAVINGS AND LOAN DEBACLE, DOT.COM SELL THE SIZZLE BUST /DEBACLE, RECYCLED /REPACKAGED /RESOLD /RECOMMISSIONED WORTHLESS COLLATERALIZED SECURITIES /PAPER (IN THE TRILLIONS YET STILL NOT ADDRESSED), ETC., THE FRAUDS ARE GETTING LARGER, HENCE THE RIDICULOUS TOO BIG TO FAIL MANTRA … HOW PATHETIC! … THAT MONEY HAS TO COME FROM SOMEPLACE, IE., PRINTING, CREATING, YOUR POCKETS, … NOT OUT OF THIN AIR! ] TYPICAL END OF QUARTER FRAUD/WINDOW DRESSING TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED [ Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years ] AND COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING [ Goldman Sachs on pace for record bonuses: report (Reuters) ] BASED ON CONTINUED BAD NEWS ( ie., BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... , personal income up modest .2% and spending down, China calls for new reserve currency to supplant worthless dollar Dollar And Stocks Drop As China Calls For New Global Currency , continuing unemployment claims at or near record 627,000, weekly unemployment claims up 15,000, and GDP contraction –5.5%, all worse than expected (lennar wider than expected quarterly loss rallies stock…riiiiight!) Jobless claims rise; GDP dips in 1Q ; soothing words/b.s. from fed which previously predicted no recession that economy still contracting but that the contraction is somewhat slowing…what b**l s**t!…, analysts- buffet/economy in shambles, Hogan/negative GDP growth and inflation owing to debasement of the dollar as well as deficit spending/pump-priming in the trillions, joker stein/economy a mess and continued job losses, new home sales down .6%; U.S. Home Prices Drop 6.8 Percent in April as Foreclosures Rise foreclosure sales up 2.4%, prices down 17% year over year, [$$] Market Suffers Some Technical Damage Stocks tumble on bleak outlook for world economy U.S. regulators close their 40th bank of the year , Next Major Move In Stock Market Will Be Down world economy to shrink by worse than previously predicted 2.9% and big difference between not getting worse and getting better, market got ahead of itself, stalled out, still depression/more job losses, higher oil-gas prices / higher interest rates / heavy debt to pare down is 1-3 year drag on economy, even if believed (I don’t) the labor dept. far better than expected job numbers by increased debt (spending) to produce same is not economically sound or sustainable, viz., record spending with record low revenues, rating cuts for bank sector, analysts concur in significant 5-15% (reality says 15-25%) pullback/correction for stocks , institutional selling, industrial production/construction down 1.1%, housing starts allegedly up but if believed will only increase the plethora of unsold inventories, empire manufacturing index suffers unexpectedly severe decline…daaaah!, credit dard defaults at record high, analysts concur that fundamentals don’t support stock rally and that pac money(defacto bribes) might derail any meaningful reform/regulation which is of concern to the frauds on wall street who should be prosecuted, record loss of wealth, higher gas prices, job losses, higher interest rates / yields, higher commodity prices, higher deficits, hyperinflation, record continuing unemployment claims at 6.8 million, worthless Weimar dollar crashing, money supply exploding with hyperinflation/higher interest rates coming, budget deficit at new highs and trade deficit worse than expected, analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets Jim Rogers: “The Worst is Not Over” 6/9/2009 , new record for continuing unemployment claims, fed downgrades outlook that previously provided b.s. for suckers’ rally, record low for new housing starts, etc.) AND BULL S**T ALONE (ie., BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... , world economy to shrink by worse than previously predicted 2.9% and big difference between not getting worse and getting better, leading indicators up far more than expected … bull s**t …based in large part on inflated stock price component … more bull s**t … new reform with same old frauds say increased capital requirements and oversight of the overseers/rating agencies (riiiiight!…same old,same old - already have but no will to enforce existing laws, etc.), analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... The Next Bubble Is Here. Have You Bought In? , foreclosure sales up, prices down , ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
PREVIOUS 6-26-09, Worthless dollar/High oil price stock rally…riiiiight!...Then
there’s the madoff propaganda event Fraudster Madoff gets 150 years,
with prosecutors patting themselves on the back when the reality is that there
has been not even one prosecution in the massive securities fraud which
benefited the wall street frauds greatly and make madoff look like a piker. Four banks fail, bringing 2009 tally to
19 more than all of 2008 at a total thus far of 44 Dollar Falls Most in Month as China Urges New Reserve
Currency Gerald Celente speaks on Cap and Trade and other handicaps
to the US economy HOW MANY TIMES
CAN THE WALL STREET FRAUDS, WITH CYCLICAL REGULARITY, DO THE SAME OR SIMILAR
FRAUD WITH IMPUNITY (STILL NOT ONE PROSECUTION IN THE MOST RECENT MASSIVE
SECURITIES FRAUD, BUT PLENTY OF OBFUSCATION EMANATING FROM THE PERPETRATORS AS
WELL AS THOSE WHO SHOULD BE PROSECUTING /PURSUING THEM) NOW REFLATING THE STOCK
MARKET BUBBLE BASED UPON NOTHING AT ALL (BAD NEWS,FRAUD AND BULL S**T),
CHANGING ACCOUNTING RULES TO FACILITATE THE COMMISSIONABLE BUBBLE FROM WHICH
THE SOURCE OF FUNDS TO EVEN PAY BACK LOANS TO AVOID SCRUTINY OF THEIR NEW FRAUD
IS GENERATED [SAVINGS AND LOAN DEBACLE, DOT.COM SELL THE SIZZLE BUST /DEBACLE,
RECYCLED /REPACKAGED /RESOLD /RECOMMISSIONED WORTHLESS COLLATERALIZED
SECURITIES /PAPER (IN THE TRILLIONS YET STILL NOT ADDRESSED), ETC., THE FRAUDS
ARE GETTING LARGER, HENCE THE RIDICULOUS TOO BIG TO FAIL MANTRA … HOW PATHETIC!
… THAT MONEY HAS TO COME FROM SOMEPLACE, IE., PRINTING, CREATING, YOUR POCKETS,
… NOT OUT OF THIN AIR! ] TYPICAL END OF QUARTER FRAUD/WINDOW DRESSING TO KEEP
SUCKERS SUCKERED [ Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest
Pace in Two Years ] AND COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING [ Goldman Sachs on pace for record bonuses: report
(Reuters) ] BASED ON CONTINUED BAD
NEWS ( ie., BUFFET: ECONOMY IN
'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... ,
personal income up modest .2% and spending down, China calls for new reserve
currency to supplant worthless dollar Dollar And Stocks Drop As China
Calls For New Global Currency , continuing unemployment
claims at or near record 627,000, weekly unemployment claims up 15,000, and GDP
contraction –5.5%, all worse than expected (lennar wider than expected
quarterly loss rallies stock…riiiiight!) Jobless claims rise; GDP dips in 1Q ; soothing
words/b.s. from fed which previously predicted no recession that economy still
contracting but that the contraction is somewhat slowing…what b**l s**t!…,
analysts- buffet/economy in shambles, Hogan/negative GDP growth and inflation
owing to debasement of the dollar as well as deficit spending/pump-priming in
the trillions, joker stein/economy a mess and continued job losses, new home
sales down .6%; U.S. Home Prices Drop 6.8 Percent in
April as Foreclosures Rise foreclosure
sales up 2.4%, prices down 17% year over year, [$$] Market Suffers Some Technical
Damage Stocks tumble on bleak outlook for world economy U.S. regulators close their 40th bank of the year
, Next
Major Move In Stock Market Will Be Down world
economy to shrink by worse than previously predicted 2.9% and big difference
between not getting worse and getting better, market got ahead
of itself, stalled out, still depression/more job losses, higher oil-gas prices
/ higher interest rates / heavy debt to pare down is 1-3 year drag on economy, even
if believed (I don’t) the labor dept. far better than expected job numbers by
increased debt (spending) to produce same is not economically sound or
sustainable, viz., record spending with record low revenues, rating cuts for
bank sector, analysts concur in significant 5-15% (reality says 15-25%)
pullback/correction for stocks , institutional selling, industrial
production/construction down 1.1%, housing starts allegedly up but if believed
will only increase the plethora of unsold inventories, empire manufacturing
index suffers unexpectedly severe decline…daaaah!, credit dard defaults at
record high, analysts concur that fundamentals don’t support stock rally and
that pac money(defacto bribes) might derail any meaningful reform/regulation
which is of concern to the frauds on wall street who should be prosecuted,
record loss of wealth, higher gas prices, job losses, higher interest rates /
yields, higher commodity prices, higher deficits, hyperinflation, record
continuing unemployment claims at 6.8 million, worthless Weimar dollar
crashing, money supply exploding with hyperinflation/higher interest
rates coming, budget deficit at new highs and trade deficit worse than
expected, analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed
stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks
still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower
to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of
bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets Jim Rogers: “The Worst is Not Over” 6/9/2009 ,
new record for continuing unemployment claims, fed downgrades outlook that
previously provided b.s. for suckers’ rally, record low for new housing starts,
etc.) AND BULL S**T ALONE (ie., BUFFET: ECONOMY IN
'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... , world economy to shrink by worse than
previously predicted 2.9% and big difference between not getting worse and
getting better, leading indicators up far more than expected … bull
s**t …based in large part on inflated stock price component … more bull s**t … new reform with same old frauds say increased capital
requirements and oversight of the overseers/rating agencies (riiiiight!…same
old,same old - already have but no will to enforce existing laws, etc.),
analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress
tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still
insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go,
$100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush
greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest
Pace in Two Years BUFFET:
ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY...
The Next Bubble Is Here. Have You
Bought In? , foreclosure sales up, prices down , ‘SELL IN
MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE
PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
PREVIOUS 6-26-09, SECULAR BEAR MARKET SUCKERS’ RALLY TO END
MIXED. HOW MANY TIMES CAN THE WALL STREET FRAUDS, WITH CYCLICAL REGULARITY, DO
THE SAME OR SIMILAR FRAUD WITH IMPUNITY (STILL NOT ONE PROSECUTION IN THE MOST
RECENT MASSIVE SECURITIES FRAUD, BUT PLENTY OF OBFUSCATION EMANATING FROM
THE PERPETRATORS AS WELL AS THOSE WHO SHOULD BE PROSECUTING /PURSUING THEM) NOW
REFLATING THE STOCK MARKET BUBBLE BASED UPON NOTHING AT ALL (BAD NEWS,FRAUD AND
BULL S**T), CHANGING ACCOUNTING RULES TO FACILITATE THE COMMISSIONABLE BUBBLE
FROM WHICH THE SOURCE OF FUNDS TO EVEN PAY BACK LOANS TO AVOID SCRUTINY OF
THEIR NEW FRAUD IS GENERATED [SAVINGS AND LOAN DEBACLE, DOT.COM SELL THE SIZZLE
BUST /DEBACLE, RECYCLED /REPACKAGED /RESOLD /RECOMMISSIONED WORTHLESS
COLLATERALIZED SECURITIES /PAPER (IN THE TRILLIONS YET STILL NOT ADDRESSED),
ETC., THE FRAUDS ARE GETTING LARGER, HENCE THE RIDICULOUS TOO BIG TO FAIL
MANTRA … HOW PATHETIC! … THAT MONEY HAS TO COME FROM SOMEPLACE, IE., PRINTING,
CREATING, YOUR POCKETS, … NOT OUT OF THIN AIR! ] TYPICAL END OF QUARTER
FRAUD/WINDOW DRESSING TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED [ Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest
Pace in Two Years ] AND COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING [ Goldman Sachs on pace for record bonuses: report
(Reuters) ] BASED ON CONTINUED BAD
NEWS ( ie., BUFFET: ECONOMY IN
'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... ,
personal income up modest .2% and spending down, China calls for new reserve
currency to supplant worthless dollar Dollar And Stocks Drop As China
Calls For New Global Currency , continuing
unemployment claims at or near record 627,000, weekly unemployment claims up
15,000, and GDP contraction –5.5%, all worse than expected AND BULL S**T
ALONE (ie., BUFFET: ECONOMY
IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... , world economy to shrink by worse than
previously predicted 2.9% and big difference between not getting worse and
getting better, leading indicators up far more than expected … bull
s**t …based in large part on inflated stock price component … more bull s**t … new reform with same old frauds say increased capital
requirements and oversight of the overseers/rating agencies (riiiiight!…same
old,same old - already have but no will to enforce existing laws, etc.),
analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress
tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still
insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go,
$100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush
greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest
Pace in Two Years BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO
SIGNS OF RECOVERY... The Next Bubble Is Here. Have You
Bought In? foreclosure sales up, prices down , ‘SELL IN
MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE
PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
PREVIOUS 6-25-09, HOW MANY TIMES CAN THE WALL STREET FRAUDS, WITH CYCLICAL REGULARITY, DO THE SAME OR SIMILAR FRAUD WITH IMPUNITY (STILL NOT ONE PROSECUTION IN THE MOST RECENT MASSIVE SECURITIES FRAUD, BUT PLENTY OF OBFUSCATION EMANATING FROM THE PERPETRATORS AS WELL AS THOSE WHO SHOULD BE PROSECUTING /PURSUING THEM) NOW REFLATING THE STOCK MARKET BUBBLE BASED UPON NOTHING AT ALL (BAD NEWS,FRAUD AND BULL S**T), CHANGING ACCOUNTING RULES TO FACILITATE THE COMMISSIONABLE BUBBLE FROM WHICH THE SOURCE OF FUNDS TO EVEN PAY BACK LOANS TO AVOID SCRUTINY OF THEIR NEW FRAUD IS GENERATED [SAVINGS AND LOAN DEBACLE, DOT.COM SELL THE SIZZLE BUST /DEBACLE, RECYCLED /REPACKAGED /RESOLD /RECOMMISSIONED WORTHLESS COLLATERALIZED SECURITIES /PAPER (IN THE TRILLIONS YET STILL NOT ADDRESSED), ETC., THE FRAUDS ARE GETTING LARGER, HENCE THE RIDICULOUS TOO BIG TO FAIL MANTRA … HOW PATHETIC! … THAT MONEY HAS TO COME FROM SOMEPLACE, IE., PRINTING, CREATING, YOUR POCKETS, … NOT OUT OF THIN AIR! ] TYPICAL END OF QUARTER FRAUD/WINDOW DRESSING TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED [ Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years ] AND COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING [ Goldman Sachs on pace for record bonuses: report (Reuters) ] BASED ON CONTINUED BAD NEWS ( ie., BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... , continuing unemployment claims at or near record 627,000, weekly unemployment claims up 15,000, and GDP contraction –5.5%, all worse than expected (lennar wider than expected quarterly loss rallies stock…riiiiight!) Jobless claims rise; GDP dips in 1Q ; soothing words/b.s. from fed which previously predicted no recession that economy still contracting but that the contraction is somewhat slowing…what b**l s**t!…, analysts- buffet/economy in shambles, Hogan/negative GDP growth and inflation owing to debasement of the dollar as well as deficit spending/pump-priming in the trillions, joker stein/economy a mess and continued job losses, new home sales down .6%; U.S. Home Prices Drop 6.8 Percent in April as Foreclosures Rise foreclosure sales up 2.4%, prices down 17% year over year, [$$] Market Suffers Some Technical Damage Stocks tumble on bleak outlook for world economy U.S. regulators close their 40th bank of the year , Next Major Move In Stock Market Will Be Down world economy to shrink by worse than previously predicted 2.9% and big difference between not getting worse and getting better, market got ahead of itself, stalled out, still depression/more job losses, higher oil-gas prices / higher interest rates / heavy debt to pare down is 1-3 year drag on economy, even if believed (I don’t) the labor dept. far better than expected job numbers by increased debt (spending) to produce same is not economically sound or sustainable, viz., record spending with record low revenues, rating cuts for bank sector, analysts concur in significant 5-15% (reality says 15-25%) pullback/correction for stocks , institutional selling, industrial production/construction down 1.1%, housing starts allegedly up but if believed will only increase the plethora of unsold inventories, empire manufacturing index suffers unexpectedly severe decline…daaaah!, credit dard defaults at record high, analysts concur that fundamentals don’t support stock rally and that pac money(defacto bribes) might derail any meaningful reform/regulation which is of concern to the frauds on wall street who should be prosecuted, record loss of wealth, higher gas prices, job losses, higher interest rates / yields, higher commodity prices, higher deficits, hyperinflation, record continuing unemployment claims at 6.8 million, worthless Weimar dollar crashing, money supply exploding with hyperinflation/higher interest rates coming, budget deficit at new highs and trade deficit worse than expected, analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets , new record for continuing unemployment claims, fed downgrades outlook that previously provided b.s. for suckers’ rally, record low for new housing starts, etc.) AND BULL S**T ALONE (ie., BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... , world economy to shrink by worse than previously predicted 2.9% and big difference between not getting worse and getting better, leading indicators up far more than expected … bull s**t …based in large part on inflated stock price component … more bull s**t … new reform with same old frauds say increased capital requirements and oversight of the overseers/rating agencies (riiiiight!…same old,same old - already have but no will to enforce existing laws, etc.), analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... foreclosure sales up, prices down , ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
PREVIOUS 6-24-09, SECULAR BEAR MARKET SUCKERS RALLY CONTINUES FOR MIXED CLOSE TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED [ Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years ] AND COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING [ Goldman Sachs on pace for record bonuses: report (Reuters) ] BASED ON CONTINUED BAD NEWS ( ie., BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... , soothing words/b.s. from fed which previously predicted no recession that economy still contracting but that the contraction is somewhat slowing…what b**l s**t!…, analysts- buffet/economy in shambles, Hogan/negative GDP growth and inflation owing to debasement of the dollar as well as deficit spending/pump-priming in the trillions, joker stein/economy a mess and continued job losses, new home sales down .6%; foreclosure sales up 2.4%, prices down 17% year over year, world economy to shrink by worse than previously predicted 2.9% and big difference between not getting worse and getting better, market got ahead of itself, stalled out, still depression/more job losses, higher oil-gas prices / higher interest rates / heavy debt to pare down is 1-3 year drag on economy, even if believed (I don’t) the labor dept. far better than expected job numbers by increased debt (spending) to produce same is not economically sound or sustainable, viz., record spending with record low revenues, rating cuts for bank sector, analysts concur in significant 5-15% (reality says 15-25%) pullback/correction for stocks , institutional selling, industrial production/construction down 1.1%, housing starts allegedly up but if believed will only increase the plethora of unsold inventories, empire manufacturing index suffers unexpectedly severe decline…daaaah!, credit dard defaults at record high, analysts concur that fundamentals don’t support stock rally and that pac money(defacto bribes) might derail any meaningful reform/regulation which is of concern to the frauds on wall street who should be prosecuted, record loss of wealth, higher gas prices, job losses, higher interest rates / yields, higher commodity prices, higher deficits, hyperinflation, record continuing unemployment claims at 6.8 million, worthless Weimar dollar crashing, money supply exploding with hyperinflation/higher interest rates coming, budget deficit at new highs and trade deficit worse than expected, analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets Jim Rogers: “The Worst is Not Over” 6/9/2009 , new record for continuing unemployment claims, fed downgrades outlook that previously provided b.s. for suckers’ rally, record low for new housing starts, etc.) AND BULL S**T ALONE (ie., BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... , world economy to shrink by worse than previously predicted 2.9% and big difference between not getting worse and getting better, leading indicators up far more than expected … bull s**t …based in large part on inflated stock price component … more bull s**t … new reform with same old frauds say increased capital requirements and oversight of the overseers/rating agencies (riiiiight!…same old,same old - already have but no will to enforce existing laws, etc.), analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... The Next Bubble Is Here. Have You Bought In? foreclosure sales up, prices down , ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
PREVIOUS 6-23-09, SECULAR BEAR MARKET SUCKERS RALLY INTACT TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED [ Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years ] AND COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING [ Goldman Sachs on pace for record bonuses: report (Reuters) ] BASED ON CONTINUED BAD NEWS ( ie., U.S. Home Prices Drop 6.8 Percent in April as Foreclosures Rise foreclosure sales up 2.4%, prices down 17% year over year, [$$] Market Suffers Some Technical Damage Stocks tumble on bleak outlook for world economy U.S. regulators close their 40th bank of the year , Next Major Move In Stock Market Will Be Down world economy to shrink by worse than previously predicted 2.9% and big difference between not getting worse and getting better, market got ahead of itself, stalled out, still depression/more job losses, higher oil-gas prices / higher interest rates / heavy debt to pare down is 1-3 year drag on economy, even if believed (I don’t) the labor dept. far better than expected job numbers by increased debt (spending) to produce same is not economically sound or sustainable, viz., record spending with record low revenues, rating cuts for bank sector, analysts concur in significant 5-15% (reality says 15-25%) pullback/correction for stocks , institutional selling, industrial production/construction down 1.1%, housing starts allegedly up but if believed will only increase the plethora of unsold inventories, empire manufacturing index suffers unexpectedly severe decline…daaaah!, credit dard defaults at record high, analysts concur that fundamentals don’t support stock rally and that pac money(defacto bribes) might derail any meaningful reform/regulation which is of concern to the frauds on wall street who should be prosecuted, record loss of wealth, higher gas prices, job losses, higher interest rates / yields, higher commodity prices, higher deficits, hyperinflation, record continuing unemployment claims at 6.8 million, worthless Weimar dollar crashing, money supply exploding with hyperinflation/higher interest rates coming, budget deficit at new highs and trade deficit worse than expected, analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets Jim Rogers: “The Worst is Not Over” 6/9/2009 , new record for continuing unemployment claims, fed downgrades outlook that previously provided b.s. for suckers’ rally, record low for new housing starts, etc.) AND BULL S**T ALONE (ie., world economy to shrink by worse than previously predicted 2.9% and big difference between not getting worse and getting better, leading indicators up far more than expected … bull s**t …based in large part on inflated stock price component … more bull s**t … new reform with same old frauds say increased capital requirements and oversight of the overseers/rating agencies (riiiiight!…same old,same old - already have but no will to enforce existing laws, etc.), analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets , foreclosure sales up, prices down , ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
PREVIOUS 6-22-09, ONLY MODEST LOSSES RELATIVE TO REALITY IN THIS SECULAR BEAR MARKET TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED AND COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING [ Goldman Sachs on pace for record bonuses: report (Reuters) ] BASED ON CONTINUED BAD NEWS ( ie., Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years [$$] Market Suffers Some Technical Damage Stocks tumble on bleak outlook for world economy U.S. regulators close their 40th bank of the year , Next Major Move In Stock Market Will Be Down world economy to shrink by worse than previously predicted 2.9% and big difference between not getting worse and getting better, market got ahead of itself, stalled out, still depression/more job losses, higher oil-gas prices / higher interest rates / heavy debt to pare down is 1-3 year drag on economy, even if believed (I don’t) the labor dept. far better than expected job numbers by increased debt (spending) to produce same is not economically sound or sustainable, viz., record spending with record low revenues, rating cuts for bank sector, analysts concur in significant 5-15% (reality says 15-25%) pullback/correction for stocks , institutional selling, industrial production/construction down 1.1%, housing starts allegedly up but if believed will only increase the plethora of unsold inventories, empire manufacturing index suffers unexpectedly severe decline…daaaah!, credit dard defaults at record high, analysts concur that fundamentals don’t support stock rally and that pac money(defacto bribes) might derail any meaningful reform/regulation which is of concern to the frauds on wall street who should be prosecuted, record loss of wealth, higher gas prices, job losses, higher interest rates / yields, higher commodity prices, higher deficits, hyperinflation, record continuing unemployment claims at 6.8 million, worthless Weimar dollar crashing, money supply exploding with hyperinflation/higher interest rates coming, budget deficit at new highs and trade deficit worse than expected, analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets Jim Rogers: “The Worst is Not Over” 6/9/2009 , new record for continuing unemployment claims, fed downgrades outlook that previously provided b.s. for suckers’ rally, record low for new housing starts, etc.) AND BULL S**T ALONE (ie., world economy to shrink by worse than previously predicted 2.9% and big difference between not getting worse and getting better, leading indicators up far more than expected … bull s**t …based in large part on inflated stock price component … more bull s**t … new reform with same old frauds say increased capital requirements and oversight of the overseers/rating agencies (riiiiight!…same old,same old - already have but no will to enforce existing laws, etc.), analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years [$$] Market Suffers Some Technical Damage ----- Existing home foreclosure sales up, and no profit discount car sales better than expected Diluting like crazy through new stock bubble issues Market Manipulation/Fraud: How Financial Markets Really Work Economist Warns Fed Will Bring About Zimbabwe Style Hyperinflation The $4 trillion housing headache (at Fortune) foreclosure sales up, prices down , ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
PREVIOUS 6-19-09, SECULAR BEAR MARKET PROGRAMMED SUCKERS
RALLY INTO THE CLOSE AS STOCKS END MIXED STILL IN DEFIANCE OF REALITY TO
KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED AND COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING BASED ON CONTINUED BAD
NEWS ( ie., U.S. regulators close their 40th bank of the year
, Next
Major Move In Stock Market Will Be Down market got
ahead of itself, stalled out, still depression/more job losses, higher oil-gas
prices / higher interest rates / heavy debt to pare down is 1-3 year drag on
economy, even if believed (I don’t) the labor dept. far better than expected
job numbers by increased debt (spending) to produce same is not economically
sound or sustainable, viz., record spending with record low revenues, rating
cuts for bank sector, analysts concur in significant 5-15% (reality says
15-25%) pullback/correction for stocks , institutional selling,
industrial production/construction down 1.1%, housing starts allegedly up but
if believed will only increase the plethora of unsold inventories, empire
manufacturing index suffers unexpectedly severe decline…daaaah!, credit dard
defaults at record high, analysts concur that fundamentals don’t support stock
rally and that pac money(defacto bribes) might derail any meaningful
reform/regulation which is of concern to the frauds on wall street who should
be prosecuted, record loss of wealth, higher gas prices, job losses, higher
interest rates / yields, higher commodity prices, higher deficits,
hyperinflation, record continuing unemployment claims at 6.8 million, worthless
Weimar dollar crashing, money supply exploding with hyperinflation/higher
interest rates coming, budget deficit at new highs and trade deficit worse than
expected, analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed
stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks
still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower
to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of
bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets
, new record for continuing unemployment claims, fed
downgrades outlook that previously provided b.s. for suckers’ rally, record low
for new housing starts, etc.) AND BULL S**T ALONE (ie., leading indicators
up far more than expected … bull s**t …based in large part on inflated stock
price component … more bull s**t … new reform with
same old frauds say increased capital requirements and oversight of the
overseers/rating agencies (riiiiight!…same old,same old - already have but no
will to enforce existing laws, etc.), analyst who called crash says
inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of
fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even
more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year,
Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting
out of Dodge and u.s. assets, foreclosure sales up, prices down , ‘SELL IN
MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE
PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
PREVIOUS 6-18-09, SECULAR BEAR MARKET PROGRAMMED SUCKERS RALLY INTO THE CLOSE AS STOCKS END MIXED STILL IN DEFIANCE OF REALITY TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED AND COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING BASED ON CONTINUED BAD NEWS ( ie., U.S. regulators close their 40th bank of the year , Next Major Move In Stock Market Will Be Down market got ahead of itself, stalled out, still depression/more job losses, higher oil-gas prices / higher interest rates / heavy debt to pare down is 1-3 year drag on economy, even if believed (I don’t) the labor dept. far better than expected job numbers by increased debt (spending) to produce same is not economically sound or sustainable, viz., record spending with record low revenues, rating cuts for bank sector, analysts concur in significant 5-15% (reality says 15-25%) pullback/correction for stocks , institutional selling, industrial production/construction down 1.1%, housing starts allegedly up but if believed will only increase the plethora of unsold inventories, empire manufacturing index suffers unexpectedly severe decline…daaaah!, credit dard defaults at record high, analysts concur that fundamentals don’t support stock rally and that pac money(defacto bribes) might derail any meaningful reform/regulation which is of concern to the frauds on wall street who should be prosecuted, record loss of wealth, higher gas prices, job losses, higher interest rates / yields, higher commodity prices, higher deficits, hyperinflation, record continuing unemployment claims at 6.8 million, worthless Weimar dollar crashing, money supply exploding with hyperinflation/higher interest rates coming, budget deficit at new highs and trade deficit worse than expected, analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets , new record for continuing unemployment claims, fed downgrades outlook that previously provided b.s. for suckers’ rally, record low for new housing starts, etc.) AND BULL S**T ALONE (ie., leading indicators up far more than expected … bull s**t …based in large part on inflated stock price component … more bull s**t … new reform with same old frauds say increased capital requirements and oversight of the overseers/rating agencies (riiiiight!…same old,same old - already have but no will to enforce existing laws, etc.), analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. , foreclosure sales up, prices down , ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
PREVIOUS 6-18-09, MORE TALK OF NEW REGULATORY SCHEME WHEN
PROSECUTION AND DISGORGEMENT WOULD REALLY BLUNT INCENTIVE FOR WALL STREET
FRAUDS PROSPECTIVELY, SECULAR BEAR MARKET PROGRAMMED SUCKERS RALLY ON
LEADING INDICATORS UP FAR MORE THAN EXPECTED … BULL S**T …BASED IN LARGE PART
ON INFLATED STOCK PRICE COMPONENT … MORE BULL S**T … AS STOCKS END MIXED STILL
IN DEFIANCE OF REALITY TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED AND COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING
BASED ON CONTINUED BAD NEWS ( ie., market got ahead of
itself, stalled out, still depression/more job losses, higher oil-gas prices /
higher interest rates / heavy debt to pare down is 1-3 year drag on economy,
even if believed (I don’t) the labor dept. far better than expected job numbers
by increased debt (spending) to produce same is not economically sound or
sustainable, viz., record spending with record low revenues, rating cuts for
bank sector, analysts concur in significant 5-15% (reality says 15-25%)
pullback/correction for stocks , institutional selling, industrial production/construction
down 1.1%, housing starts allegedly up but if believed will only increase the
plethora of unsold inventories, empire manufacturing index suffers unexpectedly
severe decline…daaaah!, credit dard defaults at record high, analysts concur that
fundamentals don’t support stock rally and that pac money(defacto bribes) might
derail any meaningful reform/regulation which is of concern to the frauds on
wall street who should be prosecuted, record loss of wealth, higher gas prices,
job losses, higher interest rates / yields, higher commodity prices, higher
deficits, hyperinflation, record continuing unemployment claims at 6.8 million,
worthless Weimar dollar crashing, money supply exploding with
hyperinflation/higher interest rates coming, budget deficit at new highs and
trade deficit worse than expected, analyst who called crash says inflationary
depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change
in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar
falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke
continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge
and u.s. assets Jim Rogers: “The Worst is Not Over” 6/9/2009 ,
new record for continuing unemployment claims, fed downgrades outlook that
previously provided b.s. for suckers’ rally, record low for new housing starts,
etc.) AND BULL S**T ALONE (ie., leading indicators up far
more than expected … bull s**t …based in large part on inflated stock price
component … more bull s**t … new reform with same
old frauds say increased capital requirements and oversight of the
overseers/rating agencies (riiiiight!…same old,same old - already have but no
will to enforce existing laws, etc.), analyst who called crash says
inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of
fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even
more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year,
Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting
out of Dodge and u.s. assets foreclosure sales up, prices down
, ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE
PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
PREVIOUS 6-17-09, SECULAR BEAR MARKET PROGRAMMED SUCKERS RALLY INTO THE CLOSE AS STOCKS END MIXED IN DEFIANCE OF REALITY TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED AND COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING BASED ON CONTINUED BAD NEWS ( ie., rating cuts for bank sector, analysts concur in significant 5-15% (reality says 15-25%) pullback/correction for stocks , institutional selling, industrial production/construction down 1.1%, housing starts allegedly up but if believed will only increase the plethora of unsold inventories, empire manufacturing index suffers unexpectedly severe decline…daaaah!, credit dard defaults at record high, analysts concur that fundamentals don’t support stock rally and that pac money(defacto bribes) might derail any meaningful reform/regulation which is of concern to the frauds on wall street who should be prosecuted, record loss of wealth, higher gas prices, job losses, higher interest rates / yields, higher commodity prices, higher deficits, hyperinflation, record continuing unemployment claims at 6.8 million, worthless Weimar dollar crashing, money supply exploding with hyperinflation/higher interest rates coming, budget deficit at new highs and trade deficit worse than expected, analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets Jim Rogers: “The Worst is Not Over” 6/9/2009 Markets See a Breakdown in Technical Support Levels Roubini: USA sees double-dip recession... Dollar drops on reserve currency doubts China sells US bonds to ’show concern’ BRICs May Buy Each Other’s Bonds in Shift From Dollar China’s holding of US bonds drops first time in 11 months Russia to Raise Reserve Currency Issue at BRIC International Demand for Worthless U.S. Assets Slowed in April IMF says worst not over Senator cashed out during big stock collapse -- after meeting with Fed, Treasury chiefs! America's AAA downgrade danger... Treasury faces pressure on price of TARP exit A depression so deep even teen shoppers scrimp US cities may have to be bulldozed in order to survive 1st quarter wiped out $1.3 trillion for Americans Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates Oil prices near $73 as energy rally continues Fed Would Be Shut Down If It Were Audited Fed says economy weak, but sees signs the slide increasing Mounting deficits spark jitters about U.S. economy Wall Street falls as realities dent recovery hopes Bonds fall on worries about government's debt load (AP) Oil prices strike new high for 2009 (AP) The depression quietly deepens CHINA AIRS FEARS ON DOLLAR, DEBT... Oil hits 7-month high over $70... Yes, We’re STILL In a Depression China Bank Wants U.S. Bonds Issued in Yuan Fake government job loss report near 40% better than private forecasts…I don’t think so!…9.4% unemployment rate…try well over 10% and with stopped looking included over 20% , Jim Rogers CNBC - Jun 4th, 2009 - Currency Crisis Ahead U.S. unemployment hits record but job losses slow if you foolishly believe fake government reports near 40% better than private estimates - I don’t think so! …now China explores buying $50bn in IMF bonds US retailers report May sales declines Tiny Tim says dollar assets safe... Laughter from audience... Why The Chinese Laughed At Geithner ----- mortgage apps. down, service sector job losses/factory orders worse than expected, new record continuing unemployment claims, bernanke spend more money you don’t have but cut debilitating deficit…riiiiight…sounds like a plan with more job losses to come, etc., Economic data disappoint, indicate slow recovery Worse-than-expected economic data thwarts rally Jobless rates in U.S. cities zoom higher in April Sector Snap: Homebuilders tumble (AP) As the Dollar Falls Off the Cliff … Bernanke warns on deficits as Treasury rates rise ----- GOV'T OWES RECORD $63.8 TRILLION... The Big Collapse Is Very Near Dollar Declines as Nations Mull Reserve Currency Alternative Dollar Falls Most In A Month Since 1985 Leap in U.S. debt hits taxpayers with 12% more red ink Gold jumps above $970/oz as dollar weakens Double-Dip Depression , New Record Continuing Unemployment Claims, Marc Faber: “I Am 100% Sure that the U.S. Will Go Into Hyperinflation” Why We'll See Another Serious Equities Sell-Off Obama continuing Bush’s assault on the middle class Government will now own 72.5% of 'New GM'... Roubini: U.S. economy to dip again next year... Case-Shillers index shows new record decline in real estate prices, $80+ oil coming this year Dallas Federal Reserve: Unfunded Pension and Health-Care Liabilities Exceeds $99 Trillion Dollars Waterboard the Fed Obama: We Are Broke. Well, Duh! Russia Rationally Dumps Dollar as Reserve Currency - Adopts Euro , new record for continuing unemployment claims, fed downgrades outlook that previously provided b.s. for suckers’ rally, record low for new housing starts, etc.) AND BULL S**T ALONE (ie., new reform with same old frauds say increased capital requirements and oversight of the overseers/rating agencies (riiiiight!…same old,same old - already have but no will to enforce existing laws, etc.), analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets Venture Capital Bubble Set to Burst, Kedrosky Says Obama Plans to Cut Bank Regulators, Allow Fed to Supervise Financial Holding Companies – The old fox guarding the henhouse tricks Federal Reserve unwisely to gain power under plan Federal Reserve Foolishly To Be Given Sweeping New Powers Yen Strengthens Most in Month as Asian Stocks Drop, Gold Gains RUSSIA CHALLENGES WORTHLESS DOLLAR... AIG says former top exec plundered retirement plan [video] The Too-Big-to-Fail Problem [6.8 min] (at MarketWatch) [$$] Too Big to Solve? (at The Wall Street Journal Online) Buy and Hold Is Dead. Long Live Buy and Hold! Financial Bailout Plan Keeps Zombie Banks Alive Bernanke then as now in denial about looming crisis 2005-2007 Retail sales, drop in jobless claims to a very high even if believed 601,000 yielding record continuing claims of 6.8 million fuel hope…if you’re a dope Lawmakers blast Fed, Treasury for BofA "threats" Oil climbs over $73 on hopes for rising demand U.S. Household Worth Fell by $1.3 Trillion in First Quarter Predictions of $250 a barrel on oil ECB Fears Reality of Banking Crisis in 2010: Report Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates Bill To Audit Federal Reserve Now Has 209 Co-Sponsors Russia May Swap Some U.S. Treasuries for IMF Debt Fed report shows losses on Bear Stearns, AIG holdings Congress subpoenas the Fed ... Finally! (AP) Brazil in recession, recovery unlikely this year What a “Jobless Recovery” Really Means: A Massive Redistribution of Wealth from the Little Guy to the Big Boys Obama Tells American Businesses to Drop Dead America’s Fed Addiction “87 Percent of [Chinese] Respondents Believe China’s u.s. Dollar-Assets are Unsafe” Fed Said to Retreat From Seeking Power to Sell Its Own Debt/Bills WIRE: Obama Tells American Businesses to Drop Dead... Long-Term Economic Memory Loss Obama’s economic model versus reality Reality bites Internet as 1Q ad sales fall 5 pct (AP) CHINA AIRS FEARS ON DOLLAR, DEBT government reports better than private estimates…riiiiight! President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Warns of Oligarchy U.S. unemployment hits record but job losses slow if you foolishly believe fake government reports near 40% better than private estimates - I don’t think so! …now Benefit spending soars to new high $100 Billion Bailout For IMF Tagged On To War Funding Bill Economic recovery is wishful thinking Gold, Silver Climb as Dollar Falls OPEC: OIL COULD REACH $90... ----- Existing home foreclosure sales up, and no profit discount car sales better than expected Diluting like crazy through new stock bubble issues Market Manipulation/Fraud: How Financial Markets Really Work Economist Warns Fed Will Bring About Zimbabwe Style Hyperinflation The $4 trillion housing headache (at Fortune) foreclosure sales up, prices down , ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
PREVIOUS 6-16-09, SECULAR BEAR MARKET AND ONLY MODEST
LOSSES RELATIVE TO REALITY TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED AND COMMISSION DOLLARS
FLOWING BASED ON CONTINUED BAD NEWS ( ie., analysts concur in
significant 5-15% pullback/correction for stocks, institutional selling,
industrial production/construction down 1.1%, housing starts allegedly up but
if believed will only increase the plethora of unsold inventories, empire
manufacturing index suffers unexpectedly severe decline…daaaah!, credit dard
defaults at record high, analysts concur that fundamentals don’t support stock
rally and that pac money(defacto bribes) might derail any meaningful
reform/regulation which is of concern to the frauds on wall street who should be
prosecuted, record loss of wealth, higher gas prices, job losses, higher
interest rates / yields, higher commodity prices, higher deficits,
hyperinflation, record continuing unemployment claims at 6.8 million, worthless
Weimar dollar crashing, money supply exploding with hyperinflation/higher
interest rates coming, budget deficit at new highs and trade deficit worse than
expected, analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed
stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks
still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower
to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of
bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets
----- mortgage apps. down, service sector job losses/factory orders worse than
expected, new record continuing unemployment claims, bernanke spend more money
you don’t have but cut debilitating deficit…riiiiight…sounds like a plan with
more job losses to come, etc, new record for continuing
unemployment claims, fed downgrades outlook that previously provided b.s. for
suckers’ rally, record low for new housing starts, etc.) AND BULL S**T ALONE (ie., Analyst
who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only
with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent,
toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil
by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends
getting out of Dodge and u.s. foreclosure sales up, prices down , ‘SELL IN
MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE
PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
PREVIOUS 6-15-09, SECULAR BEAR MARKET PROGRAMMED SUCKERS
RALLY INTO THE CLOSE TO FINISH WELL OFF THE LOWS WITH MODEST LOSSES RELATIVE TO
REALITY TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED AND COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING BASED ON
CONTINUED BAD NEWS ( ie., empire manufacturing
index suffers unexpectedly severe decline…daaaah!, credit dard defaults at
record high, analysts concur that fundamentals don’t support stock rally and
that pac money(defacto bribes) might derail any meaningful reform/regulation
which is of concern to the frauds on wall street who should be prosecuted,
record loss of wealth, higher gas prices, job losses, higher interest rates /
yields, higher commodity prices, higher deficits, hyperinflation, record
continuing unemployment claims at 6.8 million, worthless Weimar dollar
crashing, money supply exploding with hyperinflation/higher interest
rates coming, budget deficit at new highs and trade deficit worse than
expected, analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed
stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks
still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower
to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of
bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s., new
record for continuing unemployment claims, fed downgrades outlook that
previously provided b.s. for suckers’ rally, record low for new housing starts,
etc.) AND BULL S**T ALONE (ie., Analyst who called crash says inflationary depression,
banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting
rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and
a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed
policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s.
assets foreclosure
sales up, prices down , ‘SELL IN MAY AND
GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL
CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
PREVIOUS 6-11,12-09, HOW MANY TIMES CAN THE WALL STREET FRAUDS, WITH CYCLICAL REGULARITY, DO THE SAME OR SIMILAR FRAUD WITH IMPUNITY (STILL NOT ONE PROSECUTION IN THE MOST RECENT MASSIVE SECURITIES FRAUD, BUT PLENTY OF OBFUSCATION EMANATING FROM THE PERPETRATORS AS WELL AS THOSE WHO SHOULD BE PROSECUTING /PURSUING THEM) NOW REFLATING THE STOCK MARKET BUBBLE BASED UPON NOTHING AT ALL (BAD NEWS,FRAUD AND BULL S**T), CHANGING ACCOUNTING RULES TO FACILITATE THE COMMISSIONABLE BUBBLE FROM WHICH THE SOURCE OF FUNDS TO EVEN PAY BACK LOANS TO AVOID SCRUTINY OF THEIR NEW FRAUD IS GENERATED [SAVINGS AND LOAN DEBACLE, DOT.COM SELL THE SIZZLE BUST /DEBACLE, RECYCLED /REPACKAGED /RESOLD /RECOMMISSIONED WORTHLESS COLLATERALIZED SECURITIES /PAPER (IN THE TRILLIONS YET STILL NOT ADDRESSED), ETC., THE FRAUDS ARE GETTING LARGER, HENCE THE RIDICULOUS TOO BIG TO FAIL MANTRA … HOW PATHETIC! … THAT MONEY HAS TO COME FROM SOMEPLACE, IE., PRINTING, CREATING, YOUR POCKETS, … NOT OUT OF THIN AIR! ] , 300 - 1,000+ % SWING TO THE UPSIDE INTO THE CLOSE IN THIS SECULAR BEAR MARKET PROGRAMMED SUCKERS RALLY TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED AND COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING BASED ON CONTINUED BAD NEWS ( ie., record loss of wealth, higher gas prices, job losses, higher interest rates / yields, higher commodity prices, higher deficits, hyperinflation, record continuing unemployment claims at 6.8 million, worthless Weimar dollar crashing, money supply exploding with hyperinflation/higher interest rates coming, budget deficit at new highs and trade deficit worse than expected, analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets Jim Rogers: “The Worst is Not Over” 6/9/2009 Treasury faces pressure on price of TARP exit A depression so deep even teen shoppers scrimp US cities may have to be bulldozed in order to survive 1st quarter wiped out $1.3 trillion for Americans Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates Oil prices near $73 as energy rally continues Fed Would Be Shut Down If It Were Audited Fed says economy weak, but sees signs the slide increasing Mounting deficits spark jitters about U.S. economy Wall Street falls as realities dent recovery hopes Bonds fall on worries about government's debt load (AP) Oil prices strike new high for 2009 (AP) The depression quietly deepens CHINA AIRS FEARS ON DOLLAR, DEBT... Oil hits 7-month high over $70... Yes, We’re STILL In a Depression China Bank Wants U.S. Bonds Issued in Yuan Fake government job loss report near 40% better than private forecasts…I don’t think so!…9.4% unemployment rate…try well over 10% and with stopped looking included over 20% , Jim Rogers CNBC - Jun 4th, 2009 - Currency Crisis Ahead U.S. unemployment hits record but job losses slow if you foolishly believe fake government reports near 40% better than private estimates - I don’t think so! …now China explores buying $50bn in IMF bonds US retailers report May sales declines Tiny Tim says dollar assets safe... Laughter from audience... Why The Chinese Laughed At Geithner ----- mortgage apps. down, service sector job losses/factory orders worse than expected, new record continuing unemployment claims, bernanke spend more money you don’t have but cut debilitating deficit…riiiiight…sounds like a plan with more job losses to come, etc., Economic data disappoint, indicate slow recovery Worse-than-expected economic data thwarts rally Jobless rates in U.S. cities zoom higher in April Sector Snap: Homebuilders tumble (AP) As the Dollar Falls Off the Cliff … Bernanke warns on deficits as Treasury rates rise ----- GOV'T OWES RECORD $63.8 TRILLION... The Big Collapse Is Very Near Dollar Declines as Nations Mull Reserve Currency Alternative Dollar Falls Most In A Month Since 1985 Leap in U.S. debt hits taxpayers with 12% more red ink Gold jumps above $970/oz as dollar weakens Double-Dip Depression , New Record Continuing Unemployment Claims, Marc Faber: “I Am 100% Sure that the U.S. Will Go Into Hyperinflation” Why We'll See Another Serious Equities Sell-Off Obama continuing Bush’s assault on the middle class Government will now own 72.5% of 'New GM'... Roubini: U.S. economy to dip again next year... Case-Shillers index shows new record decline in real estate prices, $80+ oil coming this year Dallas Federal Reserve: Unfunded Pension and Health-Care Liabilities Exceeds $99 Trillion Dollars Waterboard the Fed Obama: We Are Broke. Well, Duh! Russia Rationally Dumps Dollar as Reserve Currency - Adopts Euro , new record for continuing unemployment claims, fed downgrades outlook that previously provided b.s. for suckers’ rally, record low for new housing starts, etc.) AND BULL S**T ALONE (ie., Analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets Venture Capital Bubble Set to Burst, Kedrosky Says Buy and Hold Is Dead. Long Live Buy and Hold! Financial Bailout Plan Keeps Zombie Banks Alive Bernanke then as now in denial about looming crisis 2005-2007 Retail sales, drop in jobless claims to a very high even if believed 601,000 yielding record continuing claims of 6.8 million fuel hope…if you’re a dope Lawmakers blast Fed, Treasury for BofA "threats" Oil climbs over $73 on hopes for rising demand U.S. Household Worth Fell by $1.3 Trillion in First Quarter Predictions of $250 a barrel on oil ECB Fears Reality of Banking Crisis in 2010: Report Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates Bill To Audit Federal Reserve Now Has 209 Co-Sponsors Russia May Swap Some U.S. Treasuries for IMF Debt Fed report shows losses on Bear Stearns, AIG holdings Congress subpoenas the Fed ... Finally! (AP) Brazil in recession, recovery unlikely this year What a “Jobless Recovery” Really Means: A Massive Redistribution of Wealth from the Little Guy to the Big Boys Obama Tells American Businesses to Drop Dead America’s Fed Addiction “87 Percent of [Chinese] Respondents Believe China’s u.s. Dollar-Assets are Unsafe” Fed Said to Retreat From Seeking Power to Sell Its Own Debt/Bills WIRE: Obama Tells American Businesses to Drop Dead... Long-Term Economic Memory Loss Obama’s economic model versus reality Reality bites Internet as 1Q ad sales fall 5 pct (AP) CHINA AIRS FEARS ON DOLLAR, DEBT government reports better than private estimates…riiiiight! President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Warns of Oligarchy U.S. unemployment hits record but job losses slow if you foolishly believe fake government reports near 40% better than private estimates - I don’t think so! …now Benefit spending soars to new high $100 Billion Bailout For IMF Tagged On To War Funding Bill Economic recovery is wishful thinking Gold, Silver Climb as Dollar Falls OPEC: OIL COULD REACH $90... ----- Existing home foreclosure sales up, and no profit discount car sales better than expected Diluting like crazy through new stock bubble issues Market Manipulation/Fraud: How Financial Markets Really Work Economist Warns Fed Will Bring About Zimbabwe Style Hyperinflation The $4 trillion housing headache (at Fortune) foreclosure sales up, prices down , ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
PREVIOUS 6-10-09, MODEST LOSSES WITH SECULAR BEAR MARKET PROGRAMMED SUCKERS RALLY INTO THE CLOSE TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED AND COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING BASED ON CONTINUED BAD NEWS ( ie., budget deficit at new highs and trade deficit worse than expected, analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets Jim Rogers: “The Worst is Not Over” 6/9/2009 Fed Would Be Shut Down If It Were Audited Fed says economy weak, but sees signs the slide increasing Mounting deficits spark jitters about U.S. economy Wall Street falls as realities dent recovery hopes Bonds fall on worries about government's debt load (AP) Oil prices strike new high for 2009 (AP) The depression quietly deepens CHINA AIRS FEARS ON DOLLAR, DEBT... Oil hits 7-month high over $70... Yes, We’re STILL In a Depression China Bank Wants U.S. Bonds Issued in Yuan Fake government job loss report near 40% better than private forecasts…I don’t think so!…9.4% unemployment rate…try well over 10% and with stopped looking included over 20% , Jim Rogers CNBC - Jun 4th, 2009 - Currency Crisis Ahead U.S. unemployment hits record but job losses slow if you foolishly believe fake government reports near 40% better than private estimates - I don’t think so! …now China explores buying $50bn in IMF bonds US retailers report May sales declines Tiny Tim says dollar assets safe... Laughter from audience... Why The Chinese Laughed At Geithner ----- mortgage apps. down, service sector job losses/factory orders worse than expected, new record continuing unemployment claims, bernanke spend more money you don’t have but cut debilitating deficit…riiiiight…sounds like a plan with more job losses to come, etc., Economic data disappoint, indicate slow recovery Worse-than-expected economic data thwarts rally Jobless rates in U.S. cities zoom higher in April Sector Snap: Homebuilders tumble (AP) As the Dollar Falls Off the Cliff … Bernanke warns on deficits as Treasury rates rise ----- GOV'T OWES RECORD $63.8 TRILLION... The Big Collapse Is Very Near Dollar Declines as Nations Mull Reserve Currency Alternative Dollar Falls Most In A Month Since 1985 Leap in U.S. debt hits taxpayers with 12% more red ink Gold jumps above $970/oz as dollar weakens Double-Dip Depression , New Record Continuing Unemployment Claims, Marc Faber: “I Am 100% Sure that the U.S. Will Go Into Hyperinflation” Why We'll See Another Serious Equities Sell-Off Obama continuing Bush’s assault on the middle class Government will now own 72.5% of 'New GM'... Roubini: U.S. economy to dip again next year... Case-Shillers index shows new record decline in real estate prices, $80+ oil coming this year Dallas Federal Reserve: Unfunded Pension and Health-Care Liabilities Exceeds $99 Trillion Dollars Waterboard the Fed Obama: We Are Broke. Well, Duh! Russia Rationally Dumps Dollar as Reserve Currency - Adopts Euro , new record for continuing unemployment claims, fed downgrades outlook that previously provided b.s. for suckers’ rally, record low for new housing starts, etc.) AND BULL S**T ALONE (ie., Analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates Bill To Audit Federal Reserve Now Has 209 Co-Sponsors Russia May Swap Some U.S. Treasuries for IMF Debt Fed report shows losses on Bear Stearns, AIG holdings Congress subpoenas the Fed ... Finally! (AP) Brazil in recession, recovery unlikely this year What a “Jobless Recovery” Really Means: A Massive Redistribution of Wealth from the Little Guy to the Big Boys Obama Tells American Businesses to Drop Dead America’s Fed Addiction “87 Percent of [Chinese] Respondents Believe China’s u.s. Dollar-Assets are Unsafe” Fed Said to Retreat From Seeking Power to Sell Its Own Debt/Bills WIRE: Obama Tells American Businesses to Drop Dead... Long-Term Economic Memory Loss Obama’s economic model versus reality Reality bites Internet as 1Q ad sales fall 5 pct (AP) CHINA AIRS FEARS ON DOLLAR, DEBT government reports better than private estimates…riiiiight! President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Warns of Oligarchy U.S. unemployment hits record but job losses slow if you foolishly believe fake government reports near 40% better than private estimates - I don’t think so! …now Benefit spending soars to new high $100 Billion Bailout For IMF Tagged On To War Funding Bill Economic recovery is wishful thinking Gold, Silver Climb as Dollar Falls OPEC: OIL COULD REACH $90... ----- Existing home foreclosure sales up, and no profit discount car sales better than expected Diluting like crazy through new stock bubble issues Market Manipulation/Fraud: How Financial Markets Really Work Economist Warns Fed Will Bring About Zimbabwe Style Hyperinflation The $4 trillion housing headache (at Fortune) foreclosure sales up, prices down , ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
PREVIOUS 6-8,9-09, INFLATIONARY DEPRESSION IS THE CALL EVEN AS SECULAR BEAR MARKET PROGRAMMED SUCKERS RALLY CONTINUES TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED AND COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING BASED ON CONTINUED BAD NEWS ( ie., Analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets The depression quietly deepens CHINA AIRS FEARS ON DOLLAR, DEBT... Oil hits 7-month high over $70... Yes, We’re STILL In a Depression China Bank Wants U.S. Bonds Issued in Yuan Fake government job loss report near 40% better than private forecasts…I don’t think so!…9.4% unemployment rate…try well over 10% and with stopped looking included over 20% , Jim Rogers CNBC - Jun 4th, 2009 - Currency Crisis Ahead U.S. unemployment hits record but job losses slow if you foolishly believe fake government reports near 40% better than private estimates - I don’t think so! …now China explores buying $50bn in IMF bonds US retailers report May sales declines Tiny Tim says dollar assets safe... Laughter from audience... Why The Chinese Laughed At Geithner ----- mortgage apps. down, service sector job losses/factory orders worse than expected, new record continuing unemployment claims, bernanke spend more money you don’t have but cut debilitating deficit…riiiiight…sounds like a plan with more job losses to come, etc., Economic data disappoint, indicate slow recovery Worse-than-expected economic data thwarts rally Jobless rates in U.S. cities zoom higher in April Sector Snap: Homebuilders tumble (AP) As the Dollar Falls Off the Cliff … Bernanke warns on deficits as Treasury rates rise ----- GOV'T OWES RECORD $63.8 TRILLION... The Big Collapse Is Very Near Dollar Declines as Nations Mull Reserve Currency Alternative Dollar Falls Most In A Month Since 1985 Leap in U.S. debt hits taxpayers with 12% more red ink Gold jumps above $970/oz as dollar weakens Double-Dip Depression , New Record Continuing Unemployment Claims, Marc Faber: “I Am 100% Sure that the U.S. Will Go Into Hyperinflation” Why We'll See Another Serious Equities Sell-Off Obama continuing Bush’s assault on the middle class Government will now own 72.5% of 'New GM'... Roubini: U.S. economy to dip again next year... Case-Shillers index shows new record decline in real estate prices, $80+ oil coming this year Dallas Federal Reserve: Unfunded Pension and Health-Care Liabilities Exceeds $99 Trillion Dollars Waterboard the Fed Obama: We Are Broke. Well, Duh! Russia Rationally Dumps Dollar as Reserve Currency - Adopts Euro , new record for continuing unemployment claims, fed downgrades outlook that previously provided b.s. for suckers’ rally, record low for new housing starts, etc.) AND BULL S**T ALONE (ie., Analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets Congress subpoenas the Fed ... Finally! (AP) Brazil in recession, recovery unlikely this year What a “Jobless Recovery” Really Means: A Massive Redistribution of Wealth from the Little Guy to the Big Boys Obama Tells American Businesses to Drop Dead America’s Fed Addiction “87 Percent of [Chinese] Respondents Believe China’s u.s. Dollar-Assets are Unsafe” Fed Said to Retreat From Seeking Power to Sell Its Own Debt/Bills WIRE: Obama Tells American Businesses to Drop Dead... Long-Term Economic Memory Loss Obama’s economic model versus reality Reality bites Internet as 1Q ad sales fall 5 pct (AP) CHINA AIRS FEARS ON DOLLAR, DEBT government reports better than private estimates…riiiiight! President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Warns of Oligarchy U.S. unemployment hits record but job losses slow if you foolishly believe fake government reports near 40% better than private estimates - I don’t think so! …now Benefit spending soars to new high $100 Billion Bailout For IMF Tagged On To War Funding Bill Economic recovery is wishful thinking Gold, Silver Climb as Dollar Falls OPEC: OIL COULD REACH $90... ----- Existing home foreclosure sales up, and no profit discount car sales better than expected Diluting like crazy through new stock bubble issues Market Manipulation/Fraud: How Financial Markets Really Work Economist Warns Fed Will Bring About Zimbabwe Style Hyperinflation The $4 trillion housing headache (at Fortune) foreclosure sales up, prices down , ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
PREVIOUS 6-5-09, SECULAR BEAR MARKET PROGRAMMED SUCKERS RALLY INTO THE CLOSE TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED BASED ON CONTINUED BAD NEWS ( ie., Yes, We’re STILL In a Depression China Bank Wants U.S. Bonds Issued in Yuan Fake government job loss report near 40% better than private forecasts…I don’t think so!…9.4% unemployment rate…try well over 10% and with stopped looking included over 20% , Jim Rogers CNBC - Jun 4th, 2009 - Currency Crisis Ahead U.S. unemployment hits record but job losses slow if you foolishly believe fake government reports near 40% better than private estimates - I don’t think so! …now China explores buying $50bn in IMF bonds US retailers report May sales declines Tiny Tim says dollar assets safe... Laughter from audience... Why The Chinese Laughed At Geithner ----- mortgage apps. down, service sector job losses/factory orders worse than expected, new record continuing unemployment claims, bernanke spend more money you don’t have but cut debilitating deficit…riiiiight…sounds like a plan with more job losses to come, etc., Economic data disappoint, indicate slow recovery Worse-than-expected economic data thwarts rally Jobless rates in U.S. cities zoom higher in April Sector Snap: Homebuilders tumble (AP) As the Dollar Falls Off the Cliff … Bernanke warns on deficits as Treasury rates rise ----- GOV'T OWES RECORD $63.8 TRILLION... The Big Collapse Is Very Near Dollar Declines as Nations Mull Reserve Currency Alternative Dollar Falls Most In A Month Since 1985 Leap in U.S. debt hits taxpayers with 12% more red ink Gold jumps above $970/oz as dollar weakens Double-Dip Depression , New Record Continuing Unemployment Claims, Marc Faber: “I Am 100% Sure that the U.S. Will Go Into Hyperinflation” Why We'll See Another Serious Equities Sell-Off Obama continuing Bush’s assault on the middle class Government will now own 72.5% of 'New GM'... Roubini: U.S. economy to dip again next year... Case-Shillers index shows new record decline in real estate prices, $80+ oil coming this year Dallas Federal Reserve: Unfunded Pension and Health-Care Liabilities Exceeds $99 Trillion Dollars Waterboard the Fed Obama: We Are Broke. Well, Duh! Russia Rationally Dumps Dollar as Reserve Currency - Adopts Euro , new record for continuing unemployment claims, fed downgrades outlook that previously provided b.s. for suckers’ rally, record low for new housing starts, etc.) AND BULL S**T ALONE (ie., Long-Term Economic Memory Loss Obama’s economic model versus reality Reality bites Internet as 1Q ad sales fall 5 pct (AP) CHINA AIRS FEARS ON DOLLAR, DEBT government reports better than private estimates…riiiiight! President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Warns of Oligarchy U.S. unemployment hits record but job losses slow if you foolishly believe fake government reports near 40% better than private estimates - I don’t think so! …now Benefit spending soars to new high $100 Billion Bailout For IMF Tagged On To War Funding Bill Economic recovery is wishful thinking Gold, Silver Climb as Dollar Falls OPEC: OIL COULD REACH $90... ----- Existing home foreclosure sales up, and no profit discount car sales better than expected Diluting like crazy through new stock bubble issues Market Manipulation/Fraud: How Financial Markets Really Work Economist Warns Fed Will Bring About Zimbabwe Style Hyperinflation The $4 trillion housing headache (at Fortune) foreclosure sales up, prices down , ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
PREVIOUS 6-5-09, FAKE GOVERNMENT JOBS REPORT FUELS SECULAR BEAR MARKET PROGRAMMED SUCKERS RALLY TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED BASED ON CONTINUED BAD NEWS ( ie., Fake government job loss report near 40% better than private forecasts…I don’t think so!…9.4% unemployment rate…try well over 10% and with stopped looking included over 20% , Jim Rogers CNBC - Jun 4th, 2009 - Currency Crisis Ahead U.S. unemployment hits record but job losses slow if you foolishly believe fake government reports near 40% better than private estimates - I don’t think so! …now China explores buying $50bn in IMF bonds US retailers report May sales declines Tiny Tim says dollar assets safe... Laughter from audience... Why The Chinese Laughed At Geithner ----- mortgage apps. down, service sector job losses/factory orders worse than expected, new record continuing unemployment claims, bernanke spend more money you don’t have but cut debilitating deficit…riiiiight…sounds like a plan with more job losses to come, etc., Economic data disappoint, indicate slow recovery Worse-than-expected economic data thwarts rally Jobless rates in U.S. cities zoom higher in April Sector Snap: Homebuilders tumble (AP) As the Dollar Falls Off the Cliff … Bernanke warns on deficits as Treasury rates rise ----- GOV'T OWES RECORD $63.8 TRILLION... The Big Collapse Is Very Near Dollar Declines as Nations Mull Reserve Currency Alternative Dollar Falls Most In A Month Since 1985 Leap in U.S. debt hits taxpayers with 12% more red ink Gold jumps above $970/oz as dollar weakens Double-Dip Depression , New Record Continuing Unemployment Claims, Marc Faber: “I Am 100% Sure that the U.S. Will Go Into Hyperinflation” Why We'll See Another Serious Equities Sell-Off Obama continuing Bush’s assault on the middle class Government will now own 72.5% of 'New GM'... Roubini: U.S. economy to dip again next year... Case-Shillers index shows new record decline in real estate prices, $80+ oil coming this year Dallas Federal Reserve: Unfunded Pension and Health-Care Liabilities Exceeds $99 Trillion Dollars Waterboard the Fed Obama: We Are Broke. Well, Duh! Russia Rationally Dumps Dollar as Reserve Currency - Adopts Euro , new record for continuing unemployment claims, fed downgrades outlook that previously provided b.s. for suckers’ rally, record low for new housing starts, etc.) AND BULL S**T ALONE (ie., government reports better than private estimates…riiiiight! President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Warns of Oligarchy U.S. unemployment hits record but job losses slow if you foolishly believe fake government reports near 40% better than private estimates - I don’t think so! …now Benefit spending soars to new high $100 Billion Bailout For IMF Tagged On To War Funding Bill Economic recovery is wishful thinking Gold, Silver Climb as Dollar Falls OPEC: OIL COULD REACH $90... ----- Existing home foreclosure sales up, and no profit discount car sales better than expected Diluting like crazy through new stock bubble issues Market Manipulation/Fraud: How Financial Markets Really Work Economist Warns Fed Will Bring About Zimbabwe Style Hyperinflation The $4 trillion housing headache (at Fortune) foreclosure sales up, prices down , ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
PREVIOUS 6-4-09, SHORT-COVERING/SUCKERS RALLY TO KEEP
SUCKERS SUCKERED BASED ON CONTINUED BAD NEWS ( ie., US retailers report May sales declines Tiny Tim
says dollar assets safe... Laughter
from audience... Why The Chinese Laughed At Geithner -----
mortgage apps. down, service sector job losses/factory orders worse than
expected, new record continuing unemployment claims, bernanke spend more money
you don’t have but cut debilitating deficit…riiiiight…sounds like a plan with
more job losses to come, etc., Economic data disappoint, indicate slow
recovery
Worse-than-expected economic data
thwarts rally Jobless rates in U.S. cities zoom higher in April
Sector Snap: Homebuilders tumble (AP) As the Dollar Falls Off the Cliff
… Bernanke warns on deficits as Treasury rates rise -----
GOV'T OWES RECORD $63.8
TRILLION... The Big Collapse
Is Very Near Dollar Declines as Nations Mull Reserve Currency
Alternative Dollar Falls Most In A Month Since
1985 Leap in U.S. debt hits taxpayers
with 12% more red ink Gold jumps above $970/oz as dollar
weakens Double-Dip Depression , New Record Continuing Unemployment Claims, Marc Faber: “I Am 100% Sure that
the U.S. Will Go Into Hyperinflation” Why
We'll See Another Serious Equities Sell-Off Obama continuing Bush’s assault on the middle class Government will
now own 72.5% of 'New GM'... Roubini: U.S. economy
to dip again next year... Case-Shillers
index shows new record decline in real estate prices, $80+ oil
coming this year Dallas Federal Reserve: Unfunded
Pension and Health-Care Liabilities Exceeds $99 Trillion Dollars Waterboard the Fed Obama: We Are Broke. Well, Duh! Russia Rationally Dumps Dollar as
Reserve Currency - Adopts Euro , new record for
continuing unemployment claims, fed downgrades outlook that previously provided
b.s. for suckers’ rally, record low for new housing starts, etc.) AND BULL S**T
ALONE (ie., government reports slightly better than private
estimates…riiiiight! Benefit spending soars to new high $100 Billion Bailout For IMF Tagged
On To War Funding Bill Economic recovery is wishful thinking Gold, Silver Climb as Dollar Falls
OPEC: OIL
COULD REACH $90... ----- Existing home foreclosure sales up, and no
profit discount car sales better than expected Diluting like crazy through new stock
bubble issues
Market Manipulation/Fraud: How
Financial Markets Really Work Economist Warns Fed Will Bring About
Zimbabwe Style Hyperinflation The $4 trillion housing headache (at
Fortune)
foreclosure sales up, prices down , ‘SELL IN
MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE
PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
PREVIOUS 6-3-09, ONLY MODEST LOSSES RELATIVE TO REALITY
WITH PROGRAMMED SHORT-COVERING/SUCKERS RALLY INTO THE CLOSE TO KEEP SUCKERS
SUCKERED BASED ON CONTINUED BAD NEWS ( ie., mortgage apps. down,
service sector job losses/factory orders worse than expected, new record
continuing unemployment claims, bernanke spend more money you don’t have but
cut debilitating deficit…riiiiight…sounds like a plan with more job losses to
come, etc., Economic data disappoint, indicate slow
recovery
Worse-than-expected economic data
thwarts rally Jobless rates in U.S. cities zoom higher in April
Sector Snap: Homebuilders tumble (AP) As the Dollar Falls Off the Cliff
… Bernanke warns on deficits as Treasury rates rise -----
GOV'T OWES RECORD $63.8
TRILLION... The Big Collapse
Is Very Near Dollar Declines as Nations Mull Reserve Currency
Alternative Dollar Falls Most In A Month Since 1985
Leap in U.S. debt hits taxpayers
with 12% more red ink Gold jumps above $970/oz as dollar
weakens Double-Dip Depression , New Record Continuing Unemployment Claims, Marc Faber: “I Am 100% Sure that
the U.S. Will Go Into Hyperinflation” Why
We'll See Another Serious Equities Sell-Off Obama continuing Bush’s assault on the middle class Government will
now own 72.5% of 'New GM'... Roubini: U.S. economy
to dip again next year... Case-Shillers
index shows new record decline in real estate prices, $80+ oil
coming this year Dallas Federal Reserve: Unfunded
Pension and Health-Care Liabilities Exceeds $99 Trillion Dollars Waterboard the Fed Obama: We Are Broke. Well, Duh! Russia Rationally Dumps Dollar as
Reserve Currency - Adopts Euro , new record for
continuing unemployment claims, fed downgrades outlook that previously provided
b.s. for suckers’ rally, record low for new housing starts, etc.) AND BULL S**T
ALONE (ie., $100 Billion Bailout For IMF Tagged
On To War Funding Bill Economic recovery is wishful thinking Gold, Silver Climb as Dollar Falls
OPEC: OIL
COULD REACH $90... ----- Existing home foreclosure sales up, and no
profit discount car sales better than expected Diluting like crazy through new stock
bubble issues
Market Manipulation/Fraud: How
Financial Markets Really Work Economist Warns Fed Will Bring About
Zimbabwe Style Hyperinflation The $4 trillion housing headache (at
Fortune)
foreclosure sales up, prices down , ‘SELL IN
MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE
PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
ANALYST FORECASTS: BULLS
AND BEARS By Richard Shaw [there were 3 bull forecasts which are bull s**t and not
included in the following excerpt to preclude fraud and conserve space; even
the neutrals are a stretch]
…..BEAR - May 30: Morgan Stanley equity analyst Jason Todd says sell this
S&P 500 rally. He says Morgan Stanley does not see large upside above
825-850. He said, “In the rush to buy a cyclical recovery, it seems earnings or
valuation no longer matters. We would be comfortable with this view if the earnings
trough was closer, but it is not.”
BEAR - MAY 28: Berkshire Hathaway possible successor to Warren Buffet, David Sokol, says they see no evidence of the green shoots that been a stimulus to the stock market. He sees the most significant headwinds to the electric utility industry in his 30 years, and see continuing housing industry problems.
BEAR?/BULL? - May 28: PIMCO co-CEO Bill Gross (manager of world’s largest bond fund) portrays “new normal” including accelerating inflation toward the latter part of a three- to five-year cycle, and the need to reexamine accepted notions about investing. He said stocks have not and will not always outperform bonds, and having 60% to 80% of portfolio assets in stocks may not always make sense. He believes the dollar will lose its status as the reserve currency; Brazil, India and China (forget Russia) will offer the best growth. The U.S. government will be selling trillions in Treasuries; the US savings rate may rise significantly, and the consumer economy may be shrinking long term due to the aging of the population.
BULL?/BEAR? - May 28: GMO CEO Jeremy Grantham predicts higher US savings and lower consumption with many postponed retirements. He sees some reasonable values within the stock market now and sees the third year of the presidential cycle (2011) as the most promising. He is not certain that a robust rally will continune. Like John Bogle, he believes in the principle of having your age as the percentage of bonds in your portfolio. He expects a bubble in emerging market stocks to develop.
BEAR - MAY 26: Comstock Partners portfolio managers Charlie Minter and Marty Weiner, say P/E’s on “as reported earnings” are too high in consideration of the long-term trend in earnings (now in down phase). “Over the past 75 years, most market peaks topped at around 20 times reported earnings, and the troughs occurred at around 10 times earnings. The financial mania of the late 1990s pushed P/Es to over 40 times reported earnings, and the following bust never brought P/Es below 18 times reported earnings. … Going back to 1950, every instance where actual earnings rose above trend-line earnings was followed by a period where actual earnings went well below trend-line earnings. Comstock Partners believes that we have entered such a period now, and that the market is trading at such a high multiple of trend-line earnings that it will be difficult to make money.”
BEAR - May 19: Gluskin Sheff analyst David Rosenberg (formerly of Merill Lynch) says this rally is a sucker’s rally based on short covering. “The FTSE All-World market P/E ratio on forward earnings estimates is now around 15x, well above pre-Lehman collapse levels and nearly double the lows for the cycle … this was a rally built largely on short covering, pension fund rebalancing and the emergence of hope wrapped up in ‘green shoot’ data points. … On average, the S&P 500 undergoes a correction of more than 20% … at a minimum, take profits”
NEUTRAL (BEAR?) - May 11: Baring Asset Management portfolio manager Hayes Miller says “Estimates suggest there isn’t that much further to run because equities are fairly valued … Earnings growth for 2009 and 2010 can’t support prices too much higher than where we are today.”
BEAR - May 11: HSBC Global Asset Management chief investment officer Leon Goldfeld, chief investment officer at HSBC Global Asset Management said it’s “hard to see” enough profit growth to justify higher stock prices. The firm’s strategy will be to reduce its holdings of equities and move into bonds and cash, he said.Bloomberg TV on June 1, said HSBC forecasts 900 as the year-end price for the S&P 500 index.
NEUTRAL - May 11: Bloomberg compilation of analyst forecasts of 2009 earnings for the S&P 500 is at $57.17 (not stated whether “as reported” or “operating”). As of June 1, that puts the S&P at about 16.5 times forecasted earnings. Yale economist Robert Schiller said the historic average is a multiple of about 16.3. [we note that we are not in an average situation or stage of a market, however].
BEAR - May 11: Bank of America CIO for private wealth management expects a 10% correction. He said, “We’re going to be in a very volatile, chop-and-grind type of market. We’ve been shown that there is a small light at the end of the tunnel, it’s dim but getting brighter, and that’s why stock prices have come this far this fast. Now, it’s all about ‘show me.’”
BEAR?/ BULL? - May Letter: PIMCO co-CEO Bill Gross wrote: “Do not be deceived by the euphoric sightings of “green shoots” and the claims for new bull markets in a multitude of asset classes. Stable and secure income is still the order of the day. Shaking hands with the new government is still the prescribed strategy, although it should be done at a senior level of the balance sheet. If the government indeed becomes your investment partner, you should keep the big Uncle in clear sight and without back turned. Risk will not likely be rewarded until the global economy stabilizes and the Obama rules of order are more clearly defined.”
BEAR - April 17: Barclay’s analyst Barry Knapp forecasts S&P 500 at 757 by year-end 2009. He said, “The equity market has priced this recovery and then some. It looks pretty expensive to us.”
PROGRAMMED TRADES/SUCKERS’ HIGH OIL/LOW DOLLAR (RIIIIIGHT!) RALLY INTO THE CLOSE TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED BASED ON BAD NEWS ( ie., GOV'T OWES RECORD $63.8 TRILLION... Dollar Falls Most In A Month Since 1985 Leap in U.S. debt hits taxpayers with 12% more red ink Gold jumps above $970/oz as dollar weakens Double-Dip Depression , New Record Continuing Unemployment Claims, Marc Faber: “I Am 100% Sure that the U.S. Will Go Into Hyperinflation” Why We'll See Another Serious Equities Sell-Off Obama continuing Bush’s assault on the middle class Government will now own 72.5% of 'New GM'... Roubini: U.S. economy to dip again next year... Case-Shillers index shows new record decline in real estate prices, $80+ oil coming this year Dallas Federal Reserve: Unfunded Pension and Health-Care Liabilities Exceeds $99 Trillion Dollars Waterboard the Fed Obama: We Are Broke. Well, Duh! Russia Rationally Dumps Dollar as Reserve Currency - Adopts Euro , new record for continuing unemployment claims, fed downgrades outlook that previously provided b.s. for suckers’ rally, record low for new housing starts, etc.) AND BULL S**T ALONE (ie., Market Manipulation/Fraud: How Financial Markets Really Work Economist Warns Fed Will Bring About Zimbabwe Style Hyperinflation The $4 trillion housing headache (at Fortune) foreclosure sales up, prices down , ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
PREVIOUS 5-29-09, PROGRAMMED TRADES/SUCKERS’ HIGH OIL/LOW DOLLAR (RIIIIIGHT!) RALLY INTO THE CLOSE TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED BASED ON BAD NEWS ( ie., GOV'T OWES RECORD $63.8 TRILLION... Dollar Falls Most In A Month Since 1985 Leap in U.S. debt hits taxpayers with 12% more red ink Gold jumps above $970/oz as dollar weakens Double-Dip Depression , New Record Continuing Unemployment Claims, Marc Faber: “I Am 100% Sure that the U.S. Will Go Into Hyperinflation” Why We'll See Another Serious Equities Sell-Off Obama continuing Bush’s assault on the middle class Government will now own 72.5% of 'New GM'... Roubini: U.S. economy to dip again next year... Case-Shillers index shows new record decline in real estate prices, $80+ oil coming this year Dallas Federal Reserve: Unfunded Pension and Health-Care Liabilities Exceeds $99 Trillion Dollars Waterboard the Fed Obama: We Are Broke. Well, Duh! Russia Rationally Dumps Dollar as Reserve Currency - Adopts Euro , new record for continuing unemployment claims, fed downgrades outlook that previously provided b.s. for suckers’ rally, record low for new housing starts, etc.) AND BULL S**T ALONE (ie., Market Manipulation/Fraud: How Financial Markets Really Work Economist Warns Fed Will Bring About Zimbabwe Style Hyperinflation The $4 trillion housing headache (at Fortune) foreclosure sales up, prices down , ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
PREVIOUS 5-28-09, SUCKERS’ RALLY INTO THE CLOSE TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED BASED ON BAD NEWS ( ie., Double-Dip Depression , New Record Continuing Unemployment Claims, Marc Faber: “I Am 100% Sure that the U.S. Will Go Into Hyperinflation” Why We'll See Another Serious Equities Sell-Off Obama continuing Bush’s assault on the middle class Government will now own 72.5% of 'New GM'... Roubini: U.S. economy to dip again next year... Case-Shillers index shows new record decline in real estate prices, $80+ oil coming this year Dallas Federal Reserve: Unfunded Pension and Health-Care Liabilities Exceeds $99 Trillion Dollars Waterboard the Fed Obama: We Are Broke. Well, Duh! Russia Rationally Dumps Dollar as Reserve Currency - Adopts Euro , new record for continuing unemployment claims, fed downgrades outlook that previously provided b.s. for suckers’ rally, record low for new housing starts, etc.) AND BULL S**T ALONE (ie., Economist Warns Fed Will Bring About Zimbabwe Style Hyperinflation The $4 trillion housing headache (at Fortune) foreclosure sales up, prices down , ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! Foreclosure woes mount for those with good credit Fed Finds a Way to Use Stress Tests to Screw Bank Shareholders One More Time (at Seeking Alpha) Time Warner to spin off AOL, ending ill-fated deal [$$] Listen, But Don't Get Suckered Faber: Inflation to 'Approach Zimbabwe Level'... U.S. Weighs Single Agency to Regulate Banking Industry Yet Ignores Existing Laws, Prosecution, and Disgorgement in this Huge Fraud…Why
PREVIOUS 5-27-09, MODEST LOSSES RELATIVE TO REALITY TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED BASED ON BAD NEWS ( ie., Double-Dip Depression Marc Faber: “I Am 100% Sure that the U.S. Will Go Into Hyperinflation” Why We'll See Another Serious Equities Sell-Off Case-Shillers index shows new record decline in real estate prices, $80+ oil coming this year Dallas Federal Reserve: Unfunded Pension and Health-Care Liabilities Exceeds $99 Trillion Dollars Waterboard the Fed Obama: We Are Broke. Well, Duh! Russia Rationally Dumps Dollar as Reserve Currency - Adopts Euro Britain's Debt Outlook Gets Bleaker: Same Implications for the U.S…how could anyone be surprised about that? Regulators shut 2 more, 35 and 36, failed banks this year in Illinois (AP) GM borrows $4 billion more, prepares for bankruptcy Job losses up in 44 states as recession drags on Florida's BankUnited fails, will cost FDIC $4.9B (AP) Regulators seize 34th bank failure of year Florida's BankUnited FSB (AP) , new record for continuing unemployment claims, fed downgrades outlook that previously provided b.s. for suckers’ rally, record low for new housing starts, etc.) AND BULL S**T ALONE (ie., Economist Warns Fed Will Bring About Zimbabwe Style Hyperinflation The $4 trillion housing headache (at Fortune) foreclosure sales up, prices down Treasury Selloff Spiking Interest Rates GM bankruptcy seen near GM all but certain to file for Chapter 11 US Government to Take Up 70% Stake in GM FDIC Fund Running Dry Yahoo Finance | As the FDIC has had to step in to take over more and more insolvent banks, the fund has dwindled to dangerously low levels. At the same time, the number of problem banks continues to grow at a rapid pace. IRS tax revenue falls along with taxpayers’ income USA Today | Federal tax revenue plunged $138 billion, or 34%, in April vs. a year ago — the biggest April drop since 1981. ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME "You have to balance hope with reality," says Doug Sandler, chief equity officer at Riverfront Investment Group. Sandler tells Andrew O'Day "this is a good example of a year where you probably have a lot of hope early, then the reality coming through Wall Street sags on oil; S&P ends worst week in 2 months Following Chrysler, GM slashing U.S. dealers SEC lawyers probed for insider trading GM, Chrysler to drop 1,900 dealers by end of 2010 The Financial Storm Obama Says U.S. Long-Term Debt Load ‘Unsustainable’ “The Worst Is Yet to Come” China’s yuan ’set to usurp US dollar’ as world’s reserve currency Former Treasury Official who Devised Formula for Rate-Setting Based on Outlook for Inflation and Growth Warns that Inflation Looms, Slams Fed Policy Dr. Doom: Capitalism Could Fail Like Communism New York Fed: Most Powerful Financial Institution You’ve Never Heard Of along with the missing $4 trillion you’ve never heard of Home Prices Drop Most on Record... Federal Hiring Frenzy......average pay $75,419 A Coming Flood of Equity Issuance, aka The Dilution Solution Fed cut banks' deficits after negotiations: sounds like a plan…riiiiight!…report Buffett's Berkshire has first loss since 2001 Are stocks a loser's bet?YES! Deficits soar even with rosy assumptions in new Obama budget... America is broke. How broke? White House forecasts higher budget deficit US red ink rising even higher, to $1.8T Deficits soar even with rosy assumptions in new Obama budget... STIMULUS WATCH: Early road aid leaves out neediest; Auditors can't track transportation funds... Gas price jumps to 6-month high... Six GM executives sell more than 200,000 shares John Hussman: Post Crash Bubbles …Unfortunately, “fear” lows are only evident in hindsight, because as we saw in 2008, a deeply oversold market can become spectacularly more oversold before recovering, and the “fast, furious” spikes off of those lows are often followed by steep failures.... Fed Inspector General Claims She Does Not Know Where Trillions Went Rep. Alan Grayson | Inspector General Elizabeth Coleman responds that the IG does not know and is not tracking where this money is. Recovery? What Recovery? Newsweek | Don’t tell me that the economy is getting better, or has even hit rock bottom. Prospects of a quick economic recovery are but fool’s gold Boosting The Dying Dollar With A False Rally Suckers rally sets up the unwinding of the market, Rally just like in 1933, wealth producers becoming impoverished, Fed officer busted for fraud, troubles in the Economy are far beyond fixing, interdependence of banks around the world expected to worsen economic problems. New York Fed chairman Friedman abruptly resigns BEWARE OF THE SUCKER'S RALLY? Betrayal of the People By Wall Street, Banks, and Government FLASH: Treasury Borrows Record $361 Billion for 2nd Quarter... The Great Geithner Coverup Obama Maintains His Perfect Batting Average for Appointing Failed Insiders to Key Economic Posts Secretary of Labor Reich: Unemployment Numbers Show We’re Already In a Depression
PREVIOUS 5-26-09, suckers’ rally to keep suckers suckered based on bad news ( ie., Case-Shillers index shows new record decline in real estate prices, Dallas Federal Reserve: Unfunded Pension and Health-Care Liabilities Exceeds $99 Trillion Dollars Waterboard the Fed Obama: We Are Broke. Well, Duh! Russia Rationally Dumps Dollar as Reserve Currency - Adopts Euro Britain's Debt Outlook Gets Bleaker: Same Implications for the U.S…how could anyone be surprised about that? Regulators shut 2 more, 35 and 36, failed banks this year in Illinois (AP) GM borrows $4 billion more, prepares for bankruptcy Job losses up in 44 states as recession drags on Florida's BankUnited fails, will cost FDIC $4.9B (AP) Regulators seize 34th bank failure of year Florida's BankUnited FSB (AP) , new record for continuing unemployment claims, fed downgrades outlook that previously provided b.s. for suckers’ rally, record low for new housing starts, etc.) and bull s**t alone (ie., fake consumer confidence reading 30+% better than private estimate sucker-rallies stocks , Current Recession Is Tracking the 1930s Bear Market , Another Bottom for Stocks Coming: Rogers (at CNBC) , The Sleepwalkers' Rally , Rogers Echoes Warning Of “Sucker’s Rally” , don’t forget that the suckers rally stock prices accounted for the very modest but ephemeral uptick in leading indicators Dallas Federal Reserve: Unfunded Pension and Health-Care Liabilities Exceeds $99 Trillion Dollars ) , ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! America is broke. How broke? White House forecasts higher budget deficit US red ink rising even higher, to $1.8T Deficits soar even with rosy assumptions in new Obama budget... STIMULUS WATCH: Early road aid leaves out neediest; Auditors can't track transportation funds... Gas price jumps to 6-month high... Six GM executives sell more than 200,000 shares John Hussman: Post Crash Bubbles …Unfortunately, “fear” lows are only evident in hindsight, because as we saw in 2008, a deeply oversold market can become spectacularly more oversold before recovering, and the “fast, furious” spikes off of those lows are often followed by steep failures.... Fed Inspector General Claims She Does Not Know Where Trillions Went Rep. Alan Grayson | Inspector General Elizabeth Coleman responds that the IG does not know and is not tracking where this money is. Recovery? What Recovery? Newsweek | Don’t tell me that the economy is getting better, or has even hit rock bottom. Prospects of a quick economic recovery are but fool’s gold Boosting The Dying Dollar With A False Rally Suckers rally sets up the unwinding of the market, Rally just like in 1933, wealth producers becoming impoverished, Fed officer busted for fraud, troubles in the Economy are far beyond fixing, interdependence of banks around the world expected to worsen economic problems. New York Fed chairman Friedman abruptly resigns BEWARE OF THE SUCKER'S RALLY? Betrayal of the People By Wall Street, Banks, and Government FLASH: Treasury Borrows Record $361 Billion for 2nd Quarter... The Great Geithner Coverup Obama Maintains His Perfect Batting Average for Appointing Failed Insiders to Key Economic Posts Secretary of Labor Reich: Unemployment Numbers Show We’re Already In a Depression
PREVIOUS 5-22-09, only very modest losses relative to reality based on bad news ( ie., Russia Rationally Dumps Dollar as Reserve Currency - Adopts Euro Britain's Debt Outlook Gets Bleaker: Same Implications for the U.S…how could anyone be surprised about that? Regulators shut 2 more, 35 and 36, failed banks this year in Illinois (AP) GM borrows $4 billion more, prepares for bankruptcy Job losses up in 44 states as recession drags on Florida's BankUnited fails, will cost FDIC $4.9B (AP) Regulators seize 34th bank failure of year Florida's BankUnited FSB (AP) , new record for continuing unemployment claims, fed downgrades outlook that previously provided b.s. for suckers’ rally, record low for new housing starts, etc.) and bull s**t alone (Current Recession Is Tracking the 1930s Bear Market , Another Bottom for Stocks Coming: Rogers (at CNBC) , The Sleepwalkers' Rally , Rogers Echoes Warning Of “Sucker’s Rally” , don’t forget that the suckers rally stock prices accounted for the very modest but ephemeral uptick in leading indicators ) , ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! Regulators shut 2 more, 35 and 36, failed banks this year in Illinois (AP) GM borrows $4 billion more, prepares for bankruptcy Job losses up in 44 states as recession drags on Bill to Audit Fed Wisely Gains Serious Momentum U.S. to Steer GM Toward Bankruptcy Gold tops $960 for first time in two months as dollar weakens South Afica gold coin demand hits all time high Peter Schiff called “Extremist” by Time Magazine Geithner Vows to Cut U.S. Deficit on Rating Concern…riiiiight!…con Gold Poised for Third Weekly Gain as Dollar Slumps Against Euro SEC lawyers probed for insider trading GM, Chrysler to drop 1,900 dealers by end of 2010 The Financial Storm Obama Says U.S. Long-Term Debt Load ‘Unsustainable’ “The Worst Is Yet to Come” China’s yuan ’set to usurp US dollar’ as world’s reserve currency Former Treasury Official who Devised Formula for Rate-Setting Based on Outlook for Inflation and Growth Warns that Inflation Looms, Slams Fed Policy Dr. Doom: Capitalism Could Fail Like Communism New York Fed: Most Powerful Financial Institution You’ve Never Heard Of along with the missing $4 trillion you’ve never heard of Home Prices Drop Most on Record... Federal Hiring Frenzy......average pay $75,419 A Coming Flood of Equity Issuance, aka The Dilution Solution Fed cut banks' deficits after negotiations: sounds like a plan…riiiiight!…report Buffett's Berkshire has first loss since 2001 Are stocks a loser's bet?YES! Deficits soar even with rosy assumptions in new Obama budget... America is broke. How broke? White House forecasts higher budget deficit US red ink rising even higher, to $1.8T Deficits soar even with rosy assumptions in new Obama budget... STIMULUS WATCH: Early road aid leaves out neediest; Auditors can't track transportation funds... Gas price jumps to 6-month high... Six GM executives sell more than 200,000 shares John Hussman: Post Crash Bubbles …Unfortunately, “fear” lows are only evident in hindsight, because as we saw in 2008, a deeply oversold market can become spectacularly more oversold before recovering, and the “fast, furious” spikes off of those lows are often followed by steep failures.... Fed Inspector General Claims She Does Not Know Where Trillions Went Rep. Alan Grayson | Inspector General Elizabeth Coleman responds that the IG does not know and is not tracking where this money is. Recovery? What Recovery? Newsweek | Don’t tell me that the economy is getting better, or has even hit rock bottom. Prospects of a quick economic recovery are but fool’s gold Boosting The Dying Dollar With A False Rally Suckers rally sets up the unwinding of the market, Rally just like in 1933, wealth producers becoming impoverished, Fed officer busted for fraud, troubles in the Economy are far beyond fixing, interdependence of banks around the world expected to worsen economic problems. New York Fed chairman Friedman abruptly resigns BEWARE OF THE SUCKER'S RALLY? Betrayal of the People By Wall Street, Banks, and Government FLASH: Treasury Borrows Record $361 Billion for 2nd Quarter... The Great Geithner Coverup Obama Maintains His Perfect Batting Average for Appointing Failed Insiders to Key Economic Posts Secretary of Labor Reich: Unemployment Numbers Show We’re Already In a Depression
PREVIOUS 5-21-09, only modest losses relative to reality as rally into the close keeps suckers suckered based on bad news ( ie., Russia Rationally Dumps Dollar as Reserve Currency - Adopts Euro Florida's BankUnited fails, will cost FDIC $4.9B (AP) Regulators seize 34th bank failure of year Florida's BankUnited FSB (AP) , new record for continuing unemployment claims, fed downgrades outlook that previously provided b.s. for suckers’ rally, record low for new housing starts, etc.) and bull s**t alone (Current Recession Is Tracking the 1930s Bear Market , Another Bottom for Stocks Coming: Rogers (at CNBC) , The Sleepwalkers' Rally , Rogers Echoes Warning Of “Sucker’s Rally” , don’t forget that the suckers rally stock prices accounted for the very modest but ephemeral uptick in leading indicators ) , ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! Britain's Debt Outlook Gets Bleaker: Same Implications for the U.S…how could anyone be surprised about that? GMAC receives $7.5 billion in new Treasury aid (AP) Dollar hits '09 low on rating fears; stocks dip (Reuters) U.K. to Lose AAA Rating at S&P as Finances Weaken U.S. Stocks Decline on Jobless Claims, greenspan, who helped create the debacle and should thereby know, Warning Gold May Test $1,200 (5-20) The Weimar Hyperinflation is Happening Again! With fed printing/creating like mad, what did they expect? Rogers Echoes Warning Of “Sucker’s Rally” Green Shoots: Too Small, Too Far Apart The Sleepwalkers' Rally Former head of pension agency takes the Fifth (AP) Global stocks slip, dollar tumbles after downbeat Fed Depression hits already defacto bankrupt Social Security hard Gold purchases up 36% as investors look to preserve wealth China Gold Reserves May Back Yuan Internationalization-Report 22 reasons why OBAMA will raise your taxes Federal debt is now $11.5 trillion. Add $1.4 trillion this year. That’s almost 100% of GDP. (5-19) Deficit surges at agency that insures pensions (AP) China and Brazil Plan to Dump Dollar HP's profit drops, more layoffs looming Japan logs record GDP drop Senator: More oversight needed at insolvent pension agency (AP) Inflating Our Way Out of This Mess? Why This Won't Work Japan's economy in record plunge Jim Rogers: Obama will Devastate the Economy This Economy Ain't Healed Yet (at Seeking Alpha) (5-18) Suckers’ rally (The Suckers Rally, Japan Style …high oil price rally…riiiiight! ) Bilderberg 2009 Attendee List (revised) Meanwhile: The Bilderbergers are advancing in Norway [ I realize that jones (who parenthetically it should be noted, hypocritically censored my comments) et als really overdoes this group’s (among others) effect on the u.s. , state of the world, etc.; truth be told, this group like most of the interest/pressure groups including the masses, in the u.s., etc., are no more than a just a bunch of f**k-ups/vegetables who like the aforementioned multitudes have really ‘mucked things up’ (for lack of a more precise yet concise term) on this planet, probably irrevocably, and like the many home-grown f**k-ups/vegetables, and in america particularly criminals, jones refuses to acknowledge as culpable for the many reasons he refuses to see, are but rather typically incompetent players contributing in there own very special eccentric, neurotic, sick, venal, corrupt, etc., way to this collective and cumulative result being this ever deflating (declining) ball of chaos /confusion /criminality called earth (there are exceptions to the foregoing, but in america, the same would be 5% or less) ]. Economy limiting services of local police Madoff Investors Probed by U.S. Prosecutors yet still not even one prosecution of the perpetrators of the largest scam/fraud in history foisted off on/funded by taxpayers Betrayal of the People By Wall Street, Banks, and Government FLASH: Treasury Borrows Record $361 Billion for 2nd Quarter... The Great Geithner Coverup Obama Maintains His Perfect Batting Average for Appointing Failed Insiders to Key Economic Posts Secretary of Labor Reich: Unemployment Numbers Show We’re Already In a Depression
PREVIOUS 5-20-09, only modest losses relative to reality based on bad news ( ie., fed downgrades outlook that previously provided b.s. for suckers’ rally, record low for new housing starts, etc.) and bull s**t alone (Current Recession Is Tracking the 1930s Bear Market , Another Bottom for Stocks Coming: Rogers (at CNBC) , The Sleepwalkers' Rally , Rogers Echoes Warning Of “Sucker’s Rally” ) , ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! The Weimar Hyperinflation is Happening Again! With fed printing/creating like mad, what did they expect? Rogers Echoes Warning Of “Sucker’s Rally” Green Shoots: Too Small, Too Far Apart The Sleepwalkers' Rally Former head of pension agency takes the Fifth (AP) Global stocks slip, dollar tumbles after downbeat Fed Depression hits already defacto bankrupt Social Security hard Gold purchases up 36% as investors look to preserve wealth China Gold Reserves May Back Yuan Internationalization-Report 22 reasons why OBAMA will raise your taxes Federal debt is now $11.5 trillion. Add $1.4 trillion this year. That’s almost 100% of GDP. (5-19) Deficit surges at agency that insures pensions (AP) China and Brazil Plan to Dump Dollar HP's profit drops, more layoffs looming Japan logs record GDP drop Senator: More oversight needed at insolvent pension agency (AP) Inflating Our Way Out of This Mess? Why This Won't Work Japan's economy in record plunge Jim Rogers: Obama will Devastate the Economy This Economy Ain't Healed Yet (at Seeking Alpha) (5-18) Suckers’ rally (The Suckers Rally, Japan Style …high oil price rally…riiiiight! ) Bilderberg 2009 Attendee List (revised) Meanwhile: The Bilderbergers are advancing in Norway [ I realize that jones (who parenthetically it should be noted, hypocritically censored my comments) et als really overdoes this group’s (among others) effect on the u.s. , state of the world, etc.; truth be told, this group like most of the interest/pressure groups including the masses, in the u.s., etc., are no more than a just a bunch of f**k-ups/vegetables who like the aforementioned multitudes have really ‘mucked things up’ (for lack of a more precise yet concise term) on this planet, probably irrevocably, and like the many home-grown f**k-ups/vegetables, and in america particularly criminals, jones refuses to acknowledge as culpable for the many reasons he refuses to see, are but rather typically incompetent players contributing in there own very special eccentric, neurotic, sick, venal, corrupt, etc., way to this collective and cumulative result being this ever deflating (declining) ball of chaos /confusion /criminality called earth (there are exceptions to the foregoing, but in america, the same would be 5% or less) ]. Economy limiting services of local police Madoff Investors Probed by U.S. Prosecutors yet still not even one prosecution of the perpetrators of the largest scam/fraud in history foisted off on/funded by taxpayers Rep. Paul’s bill to audit Federal Reserve nets 165 co-sponsors is the first of what should be many necessary wise moves American Capitalism Gone With a Whimper The Shrinking American Consumer The Suckers Rally, Japan Style Gold likely to test $950 level this week Blue collar males lose more ground; unemployment rate surges past national average...
PREVIOUS 5-19-09, only modest losses relative to reality based on bad news ( ie., record low for new housing starts, etc.) and bull s**t alone (Current Recession Is Tracking the 1930s Bear Market , Another Bottom for Stocks Coming: Rogers (at CNBC) ) , ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! Deficit surges at agency that insures pensions (AP) China and Brazil Plan to Dump Dollar HP's profit drops, more layoffs looming Japan logs record GDP drop Senator: More oversight needed at insolvent pension agency (AP) Inflating Our Way Out of This Mess? Why This Won't Work Japan's economy in record plunge Jim Rogers: Obama will Devastate the Economy This Economy Ain't Healed Yet (at Seeking Alpha) (5-18) Suckers’ rally (The Suckers Rally, Japan Style …high oil price rally…riiiiight! ) Bilderberg 2009 Attendee List (revised) Meanwhile: The Bilderbergers are advancing in Norway [ I realize that jones (who parenthetically it should be noted, hypocritically censored my comments) et als really overdoes this group’s (among others) effect on the u.s. , state of the world, etc.; truth be told, this group like most of the interest/pressure groups including the masses, in the u.s., etc., are no more than a just a bunch of f**k-ups/vegetables who like the aforementioned multitudes have really ‘mucked things up’ (for lack of a more precise yet concise term) on this planet, probably irrevocably, and like the many home-grown f**k-ups/vegetables, and in america particularly criminals, jones refuses to acknowledge as culpable for the many reasons he refuses to see, are but rather typically incompetent players contributing in there own very special eccentric, neurotic, sick, venal, corrupt, etc., way to this collective and cumulative result being this ever deflating (declining) ball of chaos /confusion /criminality called earth (there are exceptions to the foregoing, but in america, the same would be 5% or less) ]. Economy limiting services of local police Madoff Investors Probed by U.S. Prosecutors yet still not even one prosecution of the perpetrators of the largest scam/fraud in history foisted off on/funded by taxpayers Rep. Paul’s bill to audit Federal Reserve nets 165 co-sponsors is the first of what should be many necessary wise moves American Capitalism Gone With a Whimper The Shrinking American Consumer The Suckers Rally, Japan Style Gold likely to test $950 level this week New York Fed chairman Friedman abruptly resigns BEWARE OF THE SUCKER'S RALLY? Betrayal of the People By Wall Street, Banks, and Government FLASH: Treasury Borrows Record $361 Billion for 2nd Quarter... The Great Geithner Coverup Obama Maintains His Perfect Batting Average for Appointing Failed Insiders to Key Economic Posts Secretary of Labor Reich: Unemployment Numbers Show We’re Already In a Depression
PREVIOUS 5-18-09, suckers’ rally (The Suckers Rally, Japan Style …high oil price rally…riiiiight! ) accelerates into the close based on bad news and bull s**t alone (Current Recession Is Tracking the 1930s Bear Market ) , ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! American Capitalism Gone With a Whimper The Shrinking American Consumer The Suckers Rally, Japan Style Bilderberg 2009 Attendee List (revised) Meanwhile: The Bilderbergers are advancing in Norway [ I realize that jones (who parenthetically it should be noted, hypocritically censored my comments) et als really overdoes this group’s (among others) effect on the u.s. , state of the world, etc.; truth be told, this group like most of the interest/pressure groups including the masses, in the u.s., etc., are no more than a just a bunch of f**k-ups/vegetables who like the aforementioned multitudes have really ‘mucked things up’ (for lack of a more precise yet concise term) on this planet, probably irrevocably, and like the many home-grown f**k-ups/vegetables, and in america particularly criminals, jones refuses to acknowledge as culpable for the many reasons he refuses to see, are but rather typically incompetent players contributing in there own very special eccentric, neurotic, sick, venal, corrupt, etc., way to this collective and cumulative result being this ever deflating (declining) ball of chaos /confusion /criminality called earth (there are exceptions to the foregoing, but in america, the same would be 5% or less) ]. Economy limiting services of local police Madoff Investors Probed by U.S. Prosecutors yet still not even one prosecution of the perpetrators of the largest scam/fraud in history foisted off on/funded by taxpayers Rep. Paul’s bill to audit Federal Reserve nets 165 co-sponsors is the first of what should be many necessary wise moves Gold likely to test $950 level this week Blue collar males lose more ground; unemployment rate surges past national average... (5-15)Highest credit card default rates in 26 years at 10+%, the real economy in terms of unemployment, income, and debt far worse than their rosy ‘green shoots’ scenario to help froth the market. Wall Street sags on oil; S&P ends worst week in 2 months Following Chrysler, GM slashing U.S. dealers “The Worst Is Yet to Come” Yahoo Finance | “If the consumer isn’t petrified, he or she is a damn fool.” (5-14)All news worse than expected, ie., weekly job losses higher than expected 637,000, wholesale inflation rate .3%, BEAR ALARM US ’sham’ bank bail-outs enrich speculators , The Secrets of the Federal Reserve Bob Chapman | A manmade disaster created by the Federal Reserve, banking and Wall Street, and these are the same corrupt group who our government has chosen to rectify the problem. The Economy Will Not Recover Until The Perpetrators Of Our Crises Are Held Accountable etc., It’s worth noting in a Wall Street Journal editorial hedge fund manager Andy Kessler said in no uncertain terms, “this sure smells to me a suckers rally,” largely because “there aren't sustainable, fundamental reasons for the market's continued rise.” I’m skeptical about this rally, reveals analyst Guy Adami. Wall Street sags on oil; S&P ends worst week in 2 months Following Chrysler, GM slashing U.S. dealers SEC lawyers probed for insider trading GM, Chrysler to drop 1,900 dealers by end of 2010 The Financial Storm Obama Says U.S. Long-Term Debt Load ‘Unsustainable’ “The Worst Is Yet to Come” China’s yuan ’set to usurp US dollar’ as world’s reserve currency Former Treasury Official who Devised Formula for Rate-Setting Based on Outlook for Inflation and Growth Warns that Inflation Looms, Slams Fed Policy Dr. Doom: Capitalism Could Fail Like Communism New York Fed: Most Powerful Financial Institution You’ve Never Heard Of along with the missing $4 trillion you’ve never heard of Home Prices Drop Most on Record... Federal Hiring Frenzy......average pay $75,419 A Coming Flood of Equity Issuance, aka The Dilution Solution Fed cut banks' deficits after negotiations: sounds like a plan…riiiiight!…report Buffett's Berkshire has first loss since 2001 Are stocks a loser's bet?YES! Deficits soar even with rosy assumptions in new Obama budget... America is broke. How broke? White House forecasts higher budget deficit US red ink rising even higher, to $1.8T Deficits soar even with rosy assumptions in new Obama budget... STIMULUS WATCH: Early road aid leaves out neediest; Auditors can't track transportation funds... Gas price jumps to 6-month high... Six GM executives sell more than 200,000 shares John Hussman: Post Crash Bubbles …Unfortunately, “fear” lows are only evident in hindsight, because as we saw in 2008, a deeply oversold market can become spectacularly more oversold before recovering, and the “fast, furious” spikes off of those lows are often followed by steep failures.... Fed Inspector General Claims She Does Not Know Where Trillions Went Rep. Alan Grayson | Inspector General Elizabeth Coleman responds that the IG does not know and is not tracking where this money is. Recovery? What Recovery? Newsweek | Don’t tell me that the economy is getting better, or has even hit rock bottom. Prospects of a quick economic recovery are but fool’s gold Boosting The Dying Dollar With A False Rally Suckers rally sets up the unwinding of the market, Rally just like in 1933, wealth producers becoming impoverished, Fed officer busted for fraud, troubles in the Economy are far beyond fixing, interdependence of banks around the world expected to worsen economic problems. New York Fed chairman Friedman abruptly resigns BEWARE OF THE SUCKER'S RALLY? Betrayal of the People By Wall Street, Banks, and Government FLASH: Treasury Borrows Record $361 Billion for 2nd Quarter... The Great Geithner Coverup Obama Maintains His Perfect Batting Average for Appointing Failed Insiders to Key Economic Posts Secretary of Labor Reich: Unemployment Numbers Show We’re Already In a Depression
PREVIOUS 5-15-09, only modest losses relative to reality as this suckers’ rally has been based on bad news and bull s**t alone, ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! Highest credit card default rates in 26 years at 10+%, the real economy in terms of unemployment, income, and debt far worse than their rosy ‘green shoots’ scenario to help froth the market. Wall Street sags on oil; S&P ends worst week in 2 months Following Chrysler, GM slashing U.S. dealers “The Worst Is Yet to Come” Yahoo Finance | “If the consumer isn’t petrified, he or she is a damn fool.” (5-14)All news worse than expected, ie., weekly job losses higher than expected 637,000, wholesale inflation rate .3%, BEAR ALARM US ’sham’ bank bail-outs enrich speculators , The Secrets of the Federal Reserve Bob Chapman | A manmade disaster created by the Federal Reserve, banking and Wall Street, and these are the same corrupt group who our government has chosen to rectify the problem. The Economy Will Not Recover Until The Perpetrators Of Our Crises Are Held Accountable etc., It’s worth noting in a Wall Street Journal editorial hedge fund manager Andy Kessler said in no uncertain terms, “this sure smells to me a suckers rally,” largely because “there aren't sustainable, fundamental reasons for the market's continued rise.” I’m skeptical about this rally, reveals analyst Guy Adami. U.S. Economy: Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fall for Second Month GM, Chrysler to cut up to 3,000 dealers: sources (Reuters) U.S. Foreclosure Filings Hit Record for Second Straight Month Is Anyone Minding the Store at the Federal Reserve? Unemployment up to 8.9%, The Economy Will Not Recover Until The Perpetrators Of Our Crises Are Held Accountable , etc.. America is broke. How broke? NSN Money | Government obligations for Social Security and Medicare may soon exceed the combined net worth of every household and nonprofit organization in the country. "You have to balance hope with reality," says Doug Sandler, chief equity officer at Riverfront Investment Group. Sandler tells Andrew O'Day "this is a good example of a year where you probably have a lot of hope early, then the reality coming through Wall Street sags on oil; S&P ends worst week in 2 months Following Chrysler, GM slashing U.S. dealers SEC lawyers probed for insider trading GM, Chrysler to drop 1,900 dealers by end of 2010 The Financial Storm Obama Says U.S. Long-Term Debt Load ‘Unsustainable’ “The Worst Is Yet to Come” China’s yuan ’set to usurp US dollar’ as world’s reserve currency Former Treasury Official who Devised Formula for Rate-Setting Based on Outlook for Inflation and Growth Warns that Inflation Looms, Slams Fed Policy Dr. Doom: Capitalism Could Fail Like Communism New York Fed: Most Powerful Financial Institution You’ve Never Heard Of along with the missing $4 trillion you’ve never heard of Home Prices Drop Most on Record... Federal Hiring Frenzy......average pay $75,419 A Coming Flood of Equity Issuance, aka The Dilution Solution Fed cut banks' deficits after negotiations: sounds like a plan…riiiiight!…report Buffett's Berkshire has first loss since 2001 Are stocks a loser's bet?YES! Deficits soar even with rosy assumptions in new Obama budget... America is broke. How broke? White House forecasts higher budget deficit US red ink rising even higher, to $1.8T Deficits soar even with rosy assumptions in new Obama budget... STIMULUS WATCH: Early road aid leaves out neediest; Auditors can't track transportation funds... Gas price jumps to 6-month high... Six GM executives sell more than 200,000 shares John Hussman: Post Crash Bubbles …Unfortunately, “fear” lows are only evident in hindsight, because as we saw in 2008, a deeply oversold market can become spectacularly more oversold before recovering, and the “fast, furious” spikes off of those lows are often followed by steep failures.... Fed Inspector General Claims She Does Not Know Where Trillions Went Rep. Alan Grayson | Inspector General Elizabeth Coleman responds that the IG does not know and is not tracking where this money is. Recovery? What Recovery? Newsweek | Don’t tell me that the economy is getting better, or has even hit rock bottom. Prospects of a quick economic recovery are but fool’s gold Boosting The Dying Dollar With A False Rally Suckers rally sets up the unwinding of the market, Rally just like in 1933, wealth producers becoming impoverished, Fed officer busted for fraud, troubles in the Economy are far beyond fixing, interdependence of banks around the world expected to worsen economic problems. New York Fed chairman Friedman abruptly resigns BEWARE OF THE SUCKER'S RALLY? Betrayal of the People By Wall Street, Banks, and Government FLASH: Treasury Borrows Record $361 Billion for 2nd Quarter... The Great Geithner Coverup Obama Maintains His Perfect Batting Average for Appointing Failed Insiders to Key Economic Posts Secretary of Labor Reich: Unemployment Numbers Show We’re Already In a Depression
PREVIOUS 5-14-09, suckers’ rally has been based on bad news and bull s**t alone, ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! Highest credit card default rates in 26 years at 10+%, the real economy in terms of unemployment, income, and debt far worse than their rosy ‘green shoots’ scenario to help froth the market. Wall Street sags on oil; S&P ends worst week in 2 months Following Chrysler, GM slashing U.S. dealers “The Worst Is Yet to Come” Yahoo Finance | “If the consumer isn’t petrified, he or she is a damn fool.” (5-14)All news worse than expected, ie., weekly job losses higher than expected 637,000, wholesale inflation rate .3%, BEAR ALARM US ’sham’ bank bail-outs enrich speculators , The Secrets of the Federal Reserve Bob Chapman | A manmade disaster created by the Federal Reserve, banking and Wall Street, and these are the same corrupt group who our government has chosen to rectify the problem. The Economy Will Not Recover Until The Perpetrators Of Our Crises Are Held Accountable etc., It’s worth noting in a Wall Street Journal editorial hedge fund manager Andy Kessler said in no uncertain terms, “this sure smells to me a suckers rally,” largely because “there aren't sustainable, fundamental reasons for the market's continued rise.” I’m skeptical about this rally, reveals analyst Guy Adami. U.S. Economy: Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fall for Second Month GM, Chrysler to cut up to 3,000 dealers: sources (Reuters) U.S. Foreclosure Filings Hit Record for Second Straight Month Is Anyone Minding the Store at the Federal Reserve? Unemployment up to 8.9%, The Economy Will Not Recover Until The Perpetrators Of Our Crises Are Held Accountable , etc.. America is broke. How broke? NSN Money | Government obligations for Social Security and Medicare may soon exceed the combined net worth of every household and nonprofit organization in the country Oil jumps above $60 on weak US currency U.S. Trade Deficit Widens First Time in Eight Months U.S. Federal Deficit to Worsen due to Dismal Economic Projections Median home prices fall in 88 percent of cities Freddie Mac seeks $6.1B in US aid after 1Q loss Higher Taxes Coming, Just Like Obama Promised New York Fed: Most Powerful Financial Institution You’ve Never Heard Of along with the missing $4 trillion you’ve never heard of Home Prices Drop Most on Record... Federal Hiring Frenzy......average pay $75,419 A Coming Flood of Equity Issuance, aka The Dilution Solution Fed cut banks' deficits after negotiations: sounds like a plan…riiiiight!…report Buffett's Berkshire has first loss since 2001 Are stocks a loser's bet?YES! Deficits soar even with rosy assumptions in new Obama budget... America is broke. How broke? White House forecasts higher budget deficit US red ink rising even higher, to $1.8T Deficits soar even with rosy assumptions in new Obama budget... STIMULUS WATCH: Early road aid leaves out neediest; Auditors can't track transportation funds... Gas price jumps to 6-month high... Six GM executives sell more than 200,000 shares John Hussman: Post Crash Bubbles …Unfortunately, “fear” lows are only evident in hindsight, because as we saw in 2008, a deeply oversold market can become spectacularly more oversold before recovering, and the “fast, furious” spikes off of those lows are often followed by steep failures.... Fed Inspector General Claims She Does Not Know Where Trillions Went Rep. Alan Grayson | Inspector General Elizabeth Coleman responds that the IG does not know and is not tracking where this money is. Recovery? What Recovery? Newsweek | Don’t tell me that the economy is getting better, or has even hit rock bottom. Prospects of a quick economic recovery are but fool’s gold Boosting The Dying Dollar With A False Rally Suckers rally sets up the unwinding of the market, Rally just like in 1933, wealth producers becoming impoverished, Fed officer busted for fraud, troubles in the Economy are far beyond fixing, interdependence of banks around the world expected to worsen economic problems. New York Fed chairman Friedman abruptly resigns BEWARE OF THE SUCKER'S RALLY? Betrayal of the People By Wall Street, Banks, and Government FLASH: Treasury Borrows Record $361 Billion for 2nd Quarter... The Great Geithner Coverup Obama Maintains His Perfect Batting Average for Appointing Failed Insiders to Key Economic Posts Secretary of Labor Reich: Unemployment Numbers Show We’re Already In a Depression
PREVIOUS 5-13-09, modest losses relative to reality, ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! It’s worth noting in a Wall Street Journal editorial hedge fund manager Andy Kessler said in no uncertain terms, “this sure smells to me a suckers rally,” largely because “there aren't sustainable, fundamental reasons for the market's continued rise.” I’m skeptical about this rally, reveals analyst Guy Adami. U.S. Economy: Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fall for Second Month GM, Chrysler to cut up to 3,000 dealers: sources (Reuters) U.S. Foreclosure Filings Hit Record for Second Straight Month Is Anyone Minding the Store at the Federal Reserve? Unemployment up to 8.9%, The Economy Will Not Recover Until The Perpetrators Of Our Crises Are Held Accountable , etc.. America is broke. How broke? NSN Money | Government obligations for Social Security and Medicare may soon exceed the combined net worth of every household and nonprofit organization in the country. Everyone is familiar with the old saying, "what goes up must come down." Certainly the stock market has mounted a serious challenge to this old saying since bouncing off its lows in March and continues to defy gravity…In the face of unrelenting bad news, the market has been climbing because the news is "less bad," Gentle Ben and his Merry Band of Feds see "green shoots" and the financial press continues an unrelenting mantra of "recovery lies just ahead." It seems like the markets will never stop climbing, but they will, because contrary to what you hear on CNBC and read in the financial press, the laws of gravity have not been repealed and it's still true that "what goes up, must come down."
…When measured in ounces of Gold, the DOW has been in a secular bear market since peaking in late 1999. (Click charts, courtesy of stockcharts.com, for full size image). The markets, measured by the S&P500 (S&P500 Charts) and DIJA (DJIA Charts), may have recovered to new highs in 2007, but the DOW:Gold ratio told a different, truer story of just how unhealthy the US economy was…
Oil jumps above $60 on weak US currency U.S. Trade Deficit Widens First Time in Eight Months U.S. Federal Deficit to Worsen due to Dismal Economic Projections Median home prices fall in 88 percent of cities Freddie Mac seeks $6.1B in US aid after 1Q loss Higher Taxes Coming, Just Like Obama Promised New York Fed: Most Powerful Financial Institution You’ve Never Heard Of along with the missing $4 trillion you’ve never heard of Home Prices Drop Most on Record... Federal Hiring Frenzy......average pay $75,419 A Coming Flood of Equity Issuance, aka The Dilution Solution Fed cut banks' deficits after negotiations: sounds like a plan…riiiiight!…report Buffett's Berkshire has first loss since 2001 Are stocks a loser's bet?YES! Deficits soar even with rosy assumptions in new Obama budget... America is broke. How broke? White House forecasts higher budget deficit US red ink rising even higher, to $1.8T Deficits soar even with rosy assumptions in new Obama budget... STIMULUS WATCH: Early road aid leaves out neediest; Auditors can't track transportation funds... Gas price jumps to 6-month high... Six GM executives sell more than 200,000 shares John Hussman: Post Crash Bubbles …Unfortunately, “fear” lows are only evident in hindsight, because as we saw in 2008, a deeply oversold market can become spectacularly more oversold before recovering, and the “fast, furious” spikes off of those lows are often followed by steep failures.... Fed Inspector General Claims She Does Not Know Where Trillions Went Rep. Alan Grayson | Inspector General Elizabeth Coleman responds that the IG does not know and is not tracking where this money is. Recovery? What Recovery? Newsweek | Don’t tell me that the economy is getting better, or has even hit rock bottom. Prospects of a quick economic recovery are but fool’s gold Boosting The Dying Dollar With A False Rally Suckers rally sets up the unwinding of the market, Rally just like in 1933, wealth producers becoming impoverished, Fed officer busted for fraud, troubles in the Economy are far beyond fixing, interdependence of banks around the world expected to worsen economic problems. New York Fed chairman Friedman abruptly resigns BEWARE OF THE SUCKER'S RALLY? Betrayal of the People By Wall Street, Banks, and Government FLASH: Treasury Borrows Record $361 Billion for 2nd Quarter... The Great Geithner Coverup Obama Maintains His Perfect Batting Average for Appointing Failed Insiders to Key Economic Posts Secretary of Labor Reich: Unemployment Numbers Show We’re Already In a Depression
PREVIOUS 5-12-09, It’s worth noting in a Wall Street Journal editorial hedge fund manager Andy Kessler said in no uncertain terms, “this sure smells to me a suckers rally,” largely because “there aren't sustainable, fundamental reasons for the market's continued rise.” I’m skeptical about this rally, reveals analyst Guy Adami. ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’ so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! Unemployment up to 8.9%, The Economy Will Not Recover Until The Perpetrators Of Our Crises Are Held Accountable , etc.. Everyone is familiar with the old saying, "what goes up must come down." Certainly the stock market has mounted a serious challenge to this old saying since bouncing off its lows in March and continues to defy gravity…In the face of unrelenting bad news, the market has been climbing because the news is "less bad," Gentle Ben and his Merry Band of Feds see "green shoots" and the financial press continues an unrelenting mantra of "recovery lies just ahead." It seems like the markets will never stop climbing, but they will, because contrary to what you hear on CNBC and read in the financial press, the laws of gravity have not been repealed and it's still true that "what goes up, must come down."
…When measured in ounces of Gold, the DOW has been in a secular bear market since peaking in late 1999. (Click charts, courtesy of stockcharts.com, for full size image). The markets, measured by the S&P500 (S&P500 Charts) and DIJA (DJIA Charts), may have recovered to new highs in 2007, but the DOW:Gold ratio told a different, truer story of just how unhealthy the US economy was…
BEWARE OF THE SUCKER'S RALLY? ‘…Most recently, the
S&P 500 soared 24 per cent over seven weeks ending in early January, only
to plunge to a new low. It was a fairly typical sucker’s rally and bear markets
often need more than one to create sufficient disillusionment for a definitive
bottom. The 2000–2002 bear market had three, with average gains of 21 per
cent in the Dow Jones Industrials over 45 days. The granddaddy of all bear
markets, 1929 –1932, had six false alarms with an average gain of 47 per cent.
And Japan’s ongoing bear saw the Nikkei rise by at least a third four times in
its first four years with 10 more false dawns since then. Bear markets
typically end with a whimper rather than a bang, casting doubt on the latest
recovery according to Hussman Econometrics, which analysed numerous US market
bottoms and bear market rallies. With the exception of the 1987 crash, the
month before the lowest point of a downturn saw a gradual descent. By contrast,
bear market rallies were preceded by steeper declines and had sharper rebounds.
Another characteristic of bear market rallies has been modest volume on the
rebound compared to the decline. The current recovery fits the pattern of bear
market rallies in terms of volume and the “V” shape of the trough. Analysts at
Bespoke Investment Group noted that there have been only seven other periods in
the past 110 years with rallies of similar magnitude for the Dow. Three
preceded the Great Depression, three came during the Depression and one in
1982…’
New record for
continuing unemployment claims and as with all government data, adp data, etc.,
is fudged to whatever way necessary to help froth the market. Short-covering
explaining part of what remains of this continuing suckers’ bear market rally
and as admonished by analyst at Farr Miller is a bull trap. How about plain old
bull crap! One
analyst (Craig Brown) points out that we’re not at the bottom yet: excerpt-‘ I hate repeating myself, but I do not
see the economy at bottom just yet, so in some respects I will keep repeating
myself until either other people wake up to this reality or something changes
to wake me up. The markets were
down a bit yesterday and, according to Bloomberg, they were down due to fears
of the stress test results. I don't fear them; I fear what they hide. I fear
that a reported 10 out of 19 banks failed when the tests were not at all
stringent enough. I fear that the government will soft-pedal the results to
make them bad enough to have a tad of credibility but not so bad that people
run for the exits. Don't buy my word for it, others are saying the same,
including Nouriel Roubini. Nouriel has been complaining for weeks on how the worst case
scenario in the stress tests is already rosier than reality.’ Some
perspective from Sajal… Excerpts – ie., …Mark
Hulbert: That bullish bandwagon. Commentary: Some
sentiment measures showing too much optimism Art Cashin: "This rally is still somewhat
suspect. Albert Edwards : "Despite one of the biggest
economics and profit collapses in history, US stocks have failed to get cheap
in the same way that they have in Europe or Japan. My concern is that
the US equity bear market has not yet fully played out. "The current pop in the market is not dissimilar
to the many bear market rallies between 1929-1933, where signs of economic
stabilisation were met with 25% plus rallies... This optimism was subsequently
crushed." Charles Allmon … He still thinks the stock market
could decline to 3,200-4,200 on the Dow by 2011-2012 -- and that it could cross
the price of gold. Jim
Bianco: "I don't think we are getting out of this for
a long while. This has been a lousy stock rally. … …traders living in a
fool's paradise if they continue to drive the markets higher by buying stocks
based on earnings that are down, say, 50 percent from this time last year, only
because they're not down 75 percent… Diane Garnick, investment strategist at Invesco...In an interview on Tech Ticker, Garnick says that
companies are beating earnings expectations in the first quarter by Draconian
cost-cutting, an unsustainable strategy for long-term growth. More importantly,
although companies are beating profit estimates, thanks to the cost-cutting,
they are missing expectations for revenue, she says. Further, cost-cutting via
layoffs hurts the economy as a whole, Garnick argues, because the unemployed
spend less money… U.S. Economy: GDP Shrinks in
Worst Slump in 50 Years "You
have to balance hope with reality," says Doug Sandler, chief equity
officer at Riverfront Investment Group. Sandler tells Andrew O'Day "this
is a good example of a year where you probably have a lot of hope early, then
the reality coming through…” …[The upshot is that the fraud continues in churn-and-earn
fashion with investors, taxpayer, etc., getting burned for the sake of wall
street greed/fraud. The lunatic wall street frauds’ desperation linked to their
substantial crimes and booty which must be disgorged through prosecution,
especially since none of the real problems (hundreds
of trillions of fraudulent/worthless securities, etc. - Analyst Andre Egleshion
puts the amount at $600+trillion) have been
addressed much less solved; hence, virtually all problems remain and there is
but an infinitesimally small fraction of the capital and resources necessary to
solve them thanks to fraud, incompetence, lack of knowledge/ability, greed,
etc.]. U.S. Economy in 2nd Straight Quarter
of Steep Decline "You have to balance hope with reality," says
Doug Sandler, chief equity officer at Riverfront Investment Group. Sandler
tells Andrew O'Day "this is a good example of a year where you probably
have a lot of hope early, then the reality coming through Oil jumps above $60 on weak US
currency U.S. Trade Deficit Widens First
Time in Eight Months U.S. Federal Deficit to Worsen due
to Dismal Economic Projections Median home prices fall in 88 percent
of cities Freddie Mac seeks $6.1B in US aid after
1Q loss Higher Taxes Coming, Just Like Obama
Promised New York Fed: Most Powerful Financial Institution You’ve Never
Heard Of along with the missing $4 trillion you’ve never heard of Home
Prices Drop Most on Record... Federal Hiring Frenzy......average pay $75,419 A Coming Flood of Equity Issuance, aka
The Dilution Solution Fed cut banks' deficits after negotiations: sounds like a
plan…riiiiight!…report
Buffett's
Berkshire has first loss since 2001
Are stocks a loser's bet?YES!
Deficits soar even with rosy assumptions in new Obama
budget... America is broke. How broke? White House forecasts higher budget
deficit
US red ink rising even higher, to $1.8T Deficits soar even with rosy assumptions in new Obama
budget... STIMULUS WATCH: Early road aid leaves out neediest; Auditors
can't track transportation funds... Gas price jumps to 6-month high... Six GM executives sell more than 200,000 shares
John Hussman: Post Crash Bubbles
…Unfortunately, “fear” lows are only evident in hindsight, because as we saw in
2008, a deeply oversold market can become spectacularly more oversold before
recovering, and the “fast, furious” spikes off of those lows are often followed
by steep failures.... Fed
Inspector General Claims She Does Not Know Where Trillions Went Rep. Alan Grayson | Inspector General Elizabeth Coleman
responds that the IG does not know and is not tracking where this money is. Recovery? What Recovery? Newsweek | Don’t tell me that the economy is
getting better, or has even hit rock bottom. Prospects
of a quick economic recovery are but fool’s gold Boosting The Dying Dollar With A False Rally Suckers rally sets up the unwinding of the market,
Rally just like in 1933, wealth producers becoming impoverished, Fed officer
busted for fraud, troubles in the Economy are far beyond fixing,
interdependence of banks around the world expected to worsen economic problems.
New York Fed chairman Friedman
abruptly resigns BEWARE
OF THE SUCKER'S RALLY? Betrayal of the People By Wall Street, Banks, and
Government FLASH:
Treasury Borrows Record $361 Billion for 2nd Quarter... The Great Geithner Coverup Obama Maintains His Perfect
Batting Average for Appointing Failed Insiders to Key Economic Posts
Secretary of Labor Reich:
Unemployment Numbers Show We’re Already In a Depression
PREVIOUS 5-11-09, only modest losses relative to reality, ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’ so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! Unemployment up to 8.9%, The Economy Will Not Recover Until The Perpetrators Of Our Crises Are Held Accountable , etc.. Everyone is familiar with the old saying, "what goes up must come down." Certainly the stock market has mounted a serious challenge to this old saying since bouncing off its lows in March and continues to defy gravity…In the face of unrelenting bad news, the market has been climbing because the news is "less bad," Gentle Ben and his Merry Band of Feds see "green shoots" and the financial press continues an unrelenting mantra of "recovery lies just ahead." It seems like the markets will never stop climbing, but they will, because contrary to what you hear on CNBC and read in the financial press, the laws of gravity have not been repealed and it's still true that "what goes up, must come down."
…When measured in ounces of Gold, the DOW has been in a secular bear market since peaking in late 1999. (Click charts, courtesy of stockcharts.com, for full size image). The markets, measured by the S&P500 (S&P500 Charts) and DIJA (DJIA Charts), may have recovered to new highs in 2007, but the DOW:Gold ratio told a different, truer story of just how unhealthy the US economy was…
BEWARE OF THE SUCKER'S RALLY? ‘…Most recently, the
S&P 500 soared 24 per cent over seven weeks ending in early January, only
to plunge to a new low. It was a fairly typical sucker’s rally and bear markets
often need more than one to create sufficient disillusionment for a definitive
bottom. The 2000–2002 bear market had three, with average gains of 21 per
cent in the Dow Jones Industrials over 45 days. The granddaddy of all bear
markets, 1929 –1932, had six false alarms with an average gain of 47 per cent.
And Japan’s ongoing bear saw the Nikkei rise by at least a third four times in
its first four years with 10 more false dawns since then. Bear markets
typically end with a whimper rather than a bang, casting doubt on the latest
recovery according to Hussman Econometrics, which analysed numerous US market
bottoms and bear market rallies. With the exception of the 1987 crash, the
month before the lowest point of a downturn saw a gradual descent. By contrast,
bear market rallies were preceded by steeper declines and had sharper rebounds.
Another characteristic of bear market rallies has been modest volume on the
rebound compared to the decline. The current recovery fits the pattern of bear
market rallies in terms of volume and the “V” shape of the trough. Analysts at
Bespoke Investment Group noted that there have been only seven other periods in
the past 110 years with rallies of similar magnitude for the Dow. Three
preceded the Great Depression, three came during the Depression and one in
1982…’
New record for
continuing unemployment claims and as with all government data, adp data, etc.,
is fudged to whatever way necessary to help froth the market. Short-covering
explaining part of what remains of this continuing suckers’ bear market rally
and as admonished by analyst at Farr Miller is a bull trap. How about plain old
bull crap! One
analyst (Craig Brown) points out that we’re not at the bottom yet: excerpt-‘ I hate repeating myself, but I do not
see the economy at bottom just yet, so in some respects I will keep repeating
myself until either other people wake up to this reality or something changes
to wake me up. The markets were
down a bit yesterday and, according to Bloomberg, they were down due to fears
of the stress test results. I don't fear them; I fear what they hide. I fear
that a reported 10 out of 19 banks failed when the tests were not at all
stringent enough. I fear that the government will soft-pedal the results to
make them bad enough to have a tad of credibility but not so bad that people
run for the exits. Don't buy my word for it, others are saying the same,
including Nouriel Roubini. Nouriel has been complaining for weeks on how the worst case
scenario in the stress tests is already rosier than reality.’ Some
perspective from Sajal… Excerpts – ie., …Mark
Hulbert: That bullish bandwagon. Commentary: Some
sentiment measures showing too much optimism Art Cashin: "This rally is still somewhat
suspect. Albert Edwards : "Despite one of the biggest
economics and profit collapses in history, US stocks have failed to get cheap
in the same way that they have in Europe or Japan. My concern is that
the US equity bear market has not yet fully played out. "The current pop in the market is not dissimilar
to the many bear market rallies between 1929-1933, where signs of economic
stabilisation were met with 25% plus rallies... This optimism was subsequently
crushed." Charles Allmon … He still thinks the stock market
could decline to 3,200-4,200 on the Dow by 2011-2012 -- and that it could cross
the price of gold. Jim
Bianco: "I don't think we are getting out of this for
a long while. This has been a lousy stock rally. … …traders living in a
fool's paradise if they continue to drive the markets higher by buying stocks
based on earnings that are down, say, 50 percent from this time last year, only
because they're not down 75 percent… Diane Garnick, investment strategist at Invesco...In an interview on Tech Ticker, Garnick says that
companies are beating earnings expectations in the first quarter by Draconian
cost-cutting, an unsustainable strategy for long-term growth. More importantly,
although companies are beating profit estimates, thanks to the cost-cutting,
they are missing expectations for revenue, she says. Further, cost-cutting via
layoffs hurts the economy as a whole, Garnick argues, because the unemployed
spend less money… U.S. Economy: GDP Shrinks in
Worst Slump in 50 Years "You
have to balance hope with reality," says Doug Sandler, chief equity
officer at Riverfront Investment Group. Sandler tells Andrew O'Day "this
is a good example of a year where you probably have a lot of hope early, then
the reality coming through…” …[The upshot is that the fraud continues in churn-and-earn
fashion with investors, taxpayer, etc., getting burned for the sake of wall
street greed/fraud. The lunatic wall street frauds’ desperation linked to their
substantial crimes and booty which must be disgorged through prosecution,
especially since none of the real problems (hundreds
of trillions of fraudulent/worthless securities, etc. - Analyst Andre Egleshion
puts the amount at $600+trillion) have been
addressed much less solved; hence, virtually all problems remain and there is
but an infinitesimally small fraction of the capital and resources necessary to
solve them thanks to fraud, incompetence, lack of knowledge/ability, greed,
etc.]. U.S. Economy in 2nd Straight Quarter
of Steep Decline "You have to balance hope with reality," says
Doug Sandler, chief equity officer at Riverfront Investment Group. Sandler
tells Andrew O'Day "this is a good example of a year where you probably
have a lot of hope early, then the reality coming through A Coming Flood of Equity Issuance, aka
The Dilution Solution Fed cut banks' deficits after negotiations: sounds like a
plan…riiiiight!…report
Buffett's
Berkshire has first loss since 2001
Are stocks a loser's bet?YES!
Deficits soar even with rosy assumptions in new Obama
budget... America is broke. How broke? White House forecasts higher budget
deficit
US red ink rising even higher, to $1.8T Deficits soar even with rosy assumptions in new Obama
budget... STIMULUS WATCH: Early road aid leaves out neediest;
Auditors can't track transportation funds... Gas price jumps to 6-month high... Six GM executives sell more than 200,000 shares
John Hussman: Post Crash Bubbles
…Unfortunately, “fear” lows are only evident in hindsight, because as we saw in
2008, a deeply oversold market can become spectacularly more oversold before
recovering, and the “fast, furious” spikes off of those lows are often followed
by steep failures.... Fed
Inspector General Claims She Does Not Know Where Trillions Went Rep. Alan Grayson | Inspector General Elizabeth Coleman
responds that the IG does not know and is not tracking where this money is. Recovery? What Recovery? Newsweek | Don’t tell me that the economy is
getting better, or has even hit rock bottom. Prospects
of a quick economic recovery are but fool’s gold Boosting The Dying Dollar With A False Rally Suckers rally sets up the unwinding of the market,
Rally just like in 1933, wealth producers becoming impoverished, Fed officer
busted for fraud, troubles in the Economy are far beyond fixing,
interdependence of banks around the world expected to worsen economic problems.
New York Fed chairman Friedman
abruptly resigns BEWARE
OF THE SUCKER'S RALLY? Betrayal of the People By Wall Street, Banks, and
Government FLASH:
Treasury Borrows Record $361 Billion for 2nd Quarter... The Great Geithner Coverup Obama Maintains His Perfect
Batting Average for Appointing Failed Insiders to Key Economic Posts
Secretary of Labor Reich:
Unemployment Numbers Show We’re Already In a Depression
PREVIOUS 5-8-09, the flaming full moon and effect on
lunatic wall street frauds and bull s**t alone (false data, not as bad as
expected…riiiiight!…, etc.) irrationally exuberantly rally stocks so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE
PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! Unemployment
up to 8.9%, US unemployment hits 25-year high
China fears bond crisis as it slams quantitative easing The Economy Will Not Recover Until
The Perpetrators Of Our Crises Are Held Accountable , etc.. BEWARE OF THE SUCKER'S RALLY? ‘…Most recently, the
S&P 500 soared 24 per cent over seven weeks ending in early January, only
to plunge to a new low. It was a fairly typical sucker’s rally and bear markets
often need more than one to create sufficient disillusionment for a definitive
bottom. The 2000–2002 bear market had three, with average gains of 21 per
cent in the Dow Jones Industrials over 45 days. The granddaddy of all bear
markets, 1929 –1932, had six false alarms with an average gain of 47 per cent.
And Japan’s ongoing bear saw the Nikkei rise by at least a third four times in
its first four years with 10 more false dawns since then. Bear markets
typically end with a whimper rather than a bang, casting doubt on the latest
recovery according to Hussman Econometrics, which analysed numerous US market
bottoms and bear market rallies. With the exception of the 1987 crash, the
month before the lowest point of a downturn saw a gradual descent. By contrast,
bear market rallies were preceded by steeper declines and had sharper rebounds.
Another characteristic of bear market rallies has been modest volume on the
rebound compared to the decline. The current recovery fits the pattern of bear
market rallies in terms of volume and the “V” shape of the trough. Analysts at
Bespoke Investment Group noted that there have been only seven other periods in
the past 110 years with rallies of similar magnitude for the Dow. Three
preceded the Great Depression, three came during the Depression and one in
1982…’
New record for
continuing unemployment claims and as with all government data, adp data, etc.,
is fudged to whatever way necessary to help froth the market. Short-covering
explaining part of what remains of this continuing suckers’ bear market rally
and as admonished by analyst at Farr Miller is a bull trap. How about plain old
bull crap! One
analyst (Craig Brown) points out that we’re not at the bottom yet: excerpt-‘ I hate repeating myself, but I do not
see the economy at bottom just yet, so in some respects I will keep repeating
myself until either other people wake up to this reality or something changes
to wake me up. The markets were
down a bit yesterday and, according to Bloomberg, they were down due to fears
of the stress test results. I don't fear them; I fear what they hide. I fear
that a reported 10 out of 19 banks failed when the tests were not at all
stringent enough. I fear that the government will soft-pedal the results to
make them bad enough to have a tad of credibility but not so bad that people
run for the exits. Don't buy my word for it, others are saying the same,
including Nouriel Roubini. Nouriel has been complaining for weeks on how the worst case
scenario in the stress tests is already rosier than reality.’ Some
perspective from Sajal… Excerpts – ie., …Mark
Hulbert: That bullish bandwagon. Commentary: Some
sentiment measures showing too much optimism Art Cashin: "This rally is still somewhat
suspect. Albert Edwards : "Despite one of the biggest
economics and profit collapses in history, US stocks have failed to get cheap
in the same way that they have in Europe or Japan. My concern is that
the US equity bear market has not yet fully played out. "The current pop in the market is not dissimilar
to the many bear market rallies between 1929-1933, where signs of economic
stabilisation were met with 25% plus rallies... This optimism was subsequently
crushed." Charles Allmon … He still thinks the stock market
could decline to 3,200-4,200 on the Dow by 2011-2012 -- and that it could cross
the price of gold. Jim
Bianco: "I don't think we are getting out of this for
a long while. This has been a lousy stock rally. … …traders living in a
fool's paradise if they continue to drive the markets higher by buying stocks
based on earnings that are down, say, 50 percent from this time last year, only
because they're not down 75 percent… Diane Garnick, investment strategist at Invesco...In an interview on Tech Ticker, Garnick says that
companies are beating earnings expectations in the first quarter by Draconian
cost-cutting, an unsustainable strategy for long-term growth. More importantly,
although companies are beating profit estimates, thanks to the cost-cutting,
they are missing expectations for revenue, she says. Further, cost-cutting via
layoffs hurts the economy as a whole, Garnick argues, because the unemployed
spend less money… U.S. Economy: GDP Shrinks in
Worst Slump in 50 Years "You
have to balance hope with reality," says Doug Sandler, chief equity
officer at Riverfront Investment Group. Sandler tells Andrew O'Day "this
is a good example of a year where you probably have a lot of hope early, then
the reality coming through…” …[The upshot is that the fraud continues in churn-and-earn
fashion with investors, taxpayer, etc., getting burned for the sake of wall
street greed/fraud. The lunatic wall street frauds’ desperation linked to their
substantial crimes and booty which must be disgorged through prosecution,
especially since none of the real problems (hundreds
of trillions of fraudulent/worthless securities, etc. - Analyst Andre Egleshion
puts the amount at $600+trillion) have been
addressed much less solved; hence, virtually all problems remain and there is
but an infinitesimally small fraction of the capital and resources necessary to
solve them thanks to fraud, incompetence, lack of knowledge/ability, greed,
etc.]. U.S. Economy in 2nd Straight Quarter
of Steep Decline "You have to balance hope with reality," says
Doug Sandler, chief equity officer at Riverfront Investment Group. Sandler
tells Andrew O'Day "this is a good example of a year where you probably
have a lot of hope early, then the reality coming through [$$] Banks Won Concessions on Tests (at
The Wall Street Journal Online) [$$] Hit by Mortgage Defaults, Fannie
Needs $19 Billion (at The Wall Street Journal Online)
[$$] Bank Shares Range-Bound Near Term (at Barron's
Online) AP Sources: Obama wants Fed to be
finance supercop which is one of the dumber things I’ve ever heard (very bushy)
since the fed is the super criminal, capo, godfather, etc., in the criminal enterprise
called american finance/scam the taxpayer/etc., in this fraud of monumental
proportion … the bubble will again pop
Fannie Mae seeks $19B in US aid after 1Q
loss Buffett's Berkshire has first loss since 2001
Fed Sees Up to $599 Billion in Bank
Losses Is Rupert Murdoch losing it? Already past tense; he’s
lost it…so…..? EU Calls for “Internet G12″
for Global Internet Governance US unemployment hits 25-year high
China fears bond crisis as it slams quantitative easing The Economy Will Not Recover Until
The Perpetrators Of Our Crises Are Held Accountable New York Fed chairman Friedman
abruptly resigns BEWARE
OF THE SUCKER'S RALLY? Betrayal of the People By Wall Street, Banks, and
Government FLASH:
Treasury Borrows Record $361 Billion for 2nd Quarter... The Great Geithner Coverup Obama Maintains His Perfect
Batting Average for Appointing Failed Insiders to Key Economic Posts
Secretary of Labor Reich:
Unemployment Numbers Show We’re Already In a Depression
PREVIOUS 5-7-09, yes, there is a flaming full moon which explains in large part only modest losses relative to reality by the lunatic frauds on wall street so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! New record for continuing unemployment claims and as with all government data, adp data, etc., is fudged to whatever way necessary to help froth the market. Short-covering explaining part of what remains of this continuing suckers’ bear market rally and as admonished by analyst at Farr Miller is a bull trap. How about plain old bull crap! One analyst (Craig Brown) points out that we’re not at the bottom yet: excerpt-‘ I hate repeating myself, but I do not see the economy at bottom just yet, so in some respects I will keep repeating myself until either other people wake up to this reality or something changes to wake me up. The markets were down a bit yesterday and, according to Bloomberg, they were down due to fears of the stress test results. I don't fear them; I fear what they hide. I fear that a reported 10 out of 19 banks failed when the tests were not at all stringent enough. I fear that the government will soft-pedal the results to make them bad enough to have a tad of credibility but not so bad that people run for the exits. Don't buy my word for it, others are saying the same, including Nouriel Roubini. Nouriel has been complaining for weeks on how the worst case scenario in the stress tests is already rosier than reality.’ Some perspective from Sajal… Excerpts – ie., …Mark Hulbert: That bullish bandwagon. Commentary: Some sentiment measures showing too much optimism Art Cashin: "This rally is still somewhat suspect. Albert Edwards : "Despite one of the biggest economics and profit collapses in history, US stocks have failed to get cheap in the same way that they have in Europe or Japan. My concern is that the US equity bear market has not yet fully played out. "The current pop in the market is not dissimilar to the many bear market rallies between 1929-1933, where signs of economic stabilisation were met with 25% plus rallies... This optimism was subsequently crushed." Charles Allmon … He still thinks the stock market could decline to 3,200-4,200 on the Dow by 2011-2012 -- and that it could cross the price of gold. Jim Bianco: "I don't think we are getting out of this for a long while. This has been a lousy stock rally. … …traders living in a fool's paradise if they continue to drive the markets higher by buying stocks based on earnings that are down, say, 50 percent from this time last year, only because they're not down 75 percent… Diane Garnick, investment strategist at Invesco...In an interview on Tech Ticker, Garnick says that companies are beating earnings expectations in the first quarter by Draconian cost-cutting, an unsustainable strategy for long-term growth. More importantly, although companies are beating profit estimates, thanks to the cost-cutting, they are missing expectations for revenue, she says. Further, cost-cutting via layoffs hurts the economy as a whole, Garnick argues, because the unemployed spend less money… U.S. Economy: GDP Shrinks in Worst Slump in 50 Years "You have to balance hope with reality," says Doug Sandler, chief equity officer at Riverfront Investment Group. Sandler tells Andrew O'Day "this is a good example of a year where you probably have a lot of hope early, then the reality coming through…” …[The upshot is that the fraud continues in churn-and-earn fashion with investors, taxpayer, etc., getting burned for the sake of wall street greed/fraud. The lunatic wall street frauds’ desperation linked to their substantial crimes and booty which must be disgorged through prosecution, especially since none of the real problems (hundreds of trillions of fraudulent/worthless securities, etc. - Analyst Andre Egleshion puts the amount at $600+trillion) have been addressed much less solved; hence, virtually all problems remain and there is but an infinitesimally small fraction of the capital and resources necessary to solve them thanks to fraud, incompetence, lack of knowledge/ability, greed, etc.]. U.S. Economy in 2nd Straight Quarter of Steep Decline "You have to balance hope with reality," says Doug Sandler, chief equity officer at Riverfront Investment Group. Sandler tells Andrew O'Day "this is a good example of a year where you probably have a lot of hope early, then the reality coming through U.S. banks race to fill $74.6 billion stress test hole NY Fed chair resigns amid stock purchase questions and while they’re at it ask him and tiny tim geithner about the missing $4 trillion at the N.Y. fed bank among other things BofA needs $33.9 billion, eyes stock and asset sales Cyberbullying Bill Not About Protecting Kids, It is About Shutting Down the Opposition Rupert Murdoch: “Internet Will Soon Be Over – in his wet dreams along with presidents hillary, rudy, and mccain – must be ancestral flashbacks to the penal colony days in australia” Taking on the banking cabal Looking Back on the Greatest Depression 401(k)s Hit by Withdrawal Freezes Taleb: Global Crisis “Vastly Worse” Than 1930s, Buy Gold and Copper Dollar Hovering at Cliff’s Edge Group names 25 lenders responsible for economic meltdown $58: Oil prices jump to new six-month high... GM posts $6 billion loss for first quarter... Betrayal of the People By Wall Street, Banks, and Government FLASH: Treasury Borrows Record $361 Billion for 2nd Quarter... The Great Geithner Coverup Obama Maintains His Perfect Batting Average for Appointing Failed Insiders to Key Economic Posts Secretary of Labor Reich: Unemployment Numbers Show We’re Already In a Depression
PREVIOUS 5-6-09, Yes, there is a full moon which explains inlarge part this ridiculous up move on bad news and bull s**t alone so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! Some short-covering explaining part of this continuing suckers’ bear market rally, the other as admonished by analyst at Farr Miller is a bull trap. How about plain old bull crap! One analyst (Craig Brown) points out that we’re not at the bottom yet: excerpt-‘ I hate repeating myself, but I do not see the economy at bottom just yet, so in some respects I will keep repeating myself until either other people wake up to this reality or something changes to wake me up. The markets were down a bit yesterday and, according to Bloomberg, they were down due to fears of the stress test results. I don't fear them; I fear what they hide. I fear that a reported 10 out of 19 banks failed when the tests were not at all stringent enough. I fear that the government will soft-pedal the results to make them bad enough to have a tad of credibility but not so bad that people run for the exits. Don't buy my word for it, others are saying the same, including Nouriel Roubini. Nouriel has been complaining for weeks on how the worst case scenario in the stress tests is already rosier than reality.’ Some perspective from Sajal… Excerpts – ie., …Mark Hulbert: That bullish bandwagon. Commentary: Some sentiment measures showing too much optimism Art Cashin: "This rally is still somewhat suspect. Albert Edwards : "Despite one of the biggest economics and profit collapses in history, US stocks have failed to get cheap in the same way that they have in Europe or Japan. My concern is that the US equity bear market has not yet fully played out. "The current pop in the market is not dissimilar to the many bear market rallies between 1929-1933, where signs of economic stabilisation were met with 25% plus rallies... This optimism was subsequently crushed." Charles Allmon … He still thinks the stock market could decline to 3,200-4,200 on the Dow by 2011-2012 -- and that it could cross the price of gold. Jim Bianco: "I don't think we are getting out of this for a long while. This has been a lousy stock rally. … …traders living in a fool's paradise if they continue to drive the markets higher by buying stocks based on earnings that are down, say, 50 percent from this time last year, only because they're not down 75 percent… Diane Garnick, investment strategist at Invesco...In an interview on Tech Ticker, Garnick says that companies are beating earnings expectations in the first quarter by Draconian cost-cutting, an unsustainable strategy for long-term growth. More importantly, although companies are beating profit estimates, thanks to the cost-cutting, they are missing expectations for revenue, she says. Further, cost-cutting via layoffs hurts the economy as a whole, Garnick argues, because the unemployed spend less money… U.S. Economy: GDP Shrinks in Worst Slump in 50 Years "You have to balance hope with reality," says Doug Sandler, chief equity officer at Riverfront Investment Group. Sandler tells Andrew O'Day "this is a good example of a year where you probably have a lot of hope early, then the reality coming through…” …[The upshot is that the fraud continues in churn-and-earn fashion with investors, taxpayer, etc., getting burned for the sake of wall street greed/fraud. The lunatic wall street frauds’ desperation linked to their substantial crimes and booty which must be disgorged through prosecution, especially since none of the real problems (hundreds of trillions of fraudulent/worthless securities, etc. - Analyst Andre Egleshion puts the amount at $600+trillion) have been addressed much less solved; hence, virtually all problems remain and there is but an infinitesimally small fraction of the capital and resources necessary to solve them thanks to fraud, incompetence, lack of knowledge/ability, greed, etc.]. U.S. Economy in 2nd Straight Quarter of Steep Decline "You have to balance hope with reality," says Doug Sandler, chief equity officer at Riverfront Investment Group. Sandler tells Andrew O'Day "this is a good example of a year where you probably have a lot of hope early, then the reality coming through BofA, Citi, Wells need capital under stress tests NEED BILLIONS AND BILLIONS MORE Bank stress tests show some banks need more funds Almost a Quarter of U.S. Homeowners Are Underwater Banks Need Billions More Globalizing the Internet Hedge Fund Leader Blasts Obama for “Bullying” and “Abuse of Power” About that “loan”: Obama team writes off $7 billion taxpayers loaned Chrysler $56: Oil prices jump to new high for year... US wants Israel, India, Iran to sign NPT Betrayal of the People By Wall Street, Banks, and Government FLASH: Treasury Borrows Record $361 Billion for 2nd Quarter... The Great Geithner Coverup Obama Maintains His Perfect Batting Average for Appointing Failed Insiders to Key Economic Posts Secretary of Labor Reich: Unemployment Numbers Show We’re Already In a Depression
PREVIOUS 5-5-09, So small were the losses relative to
reality that to try and make sense of same (americans among other investors
must love getting burned by the frauds on wall street who are commissioning the
new bubble like mad and don’t worry since in america today they socialize their
losses and privatize their gains) is but a fool’s errand so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE
PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! One
analyst (Craig Brown) points out that we’re not at the bottom yet: excerpt-‘ I hate
repeating myself, but I do not see the economy at bottom just yet, so in some
respects I will keep repeating myself until either other people wake up to this
reality or something changes to wake me up. The markets were down a bit
yesterday and, according to Bloomberg, they were down due to fears of the
stress test results. I don't fear them; I fear what they hide. I fear that a
reported 10 out of 19 banks failed when the tests were not at all stringent
enough. I fear that the government will soft-pedal the results to make them bad
enough to have a tad of credibility but not so bad that people run for the
exits. Don't buy my word for it, others are saying the same, including Nouriel
Roubini. Nouriel has been complaining for weeks on how the worst case
scenario in the stress tests is already rosier than reality.’ Some
perspective from Sajal… Excerpts – ie., …Mark
Hulbert: That bullish bandwagon. Commentary: Some
sentiment measures showing too much optimism Art Cashin: "This rally is still somewhat
suspect. Albert Edwards : "Despite one of the biggest
economics and profit collapses in history, US stocks have failed to get cheap
in the same way that they have in Europe or Japan. My concern is that
the US equity bear market has not yet fully played out. "The current pop in the market is not dissimilar
to the many bear market rallies between 1929-1933, where signs of economic
stabilisation were met with 25% plus rallies... This optimism was subsequently
crushed." Charles Allmon … He still thinks the stock market
could decline to 3,200-4,200 on the Dow by 2011-2012 -- and that it could cross
the price of gold. Jim
Bianco: "I don't think we are getting out of this for
a long while. This has been a lousy stock rally. … …traders living in a
fool's paradise if they continue to drive the markets higher by buying stocks
based on earnings that are down, say, 50 percent from this time last year, only
because they're not down 75 percent… Diane Garnick, investment strategist at Invesco...In an interview on Tech Ticker, Garnick says that
companies are beating earnings expectations in the first quarter by Draconian
cost-cutting, an unsustainable strategy for long-term growth. More importantly,
although companies are beating profit estimates, thanks to the cost-cutting,
they are missing expectations for revenue, she says. Further, cost-cutting via
layoffs hurts the economy as a whole, Garnick argues, because the unemployed
spend less money… U.S. Economy: GDP Shrinks in
Worst Slump in 50 Years "You
have to balance hope with reality," says Doug Sandler, chief equity
officer at Riverfront Investment Group. Sandler tells Andrew O'Day "this
is a good example of a year where you probably have a lot of hope early, then
the reality coming through…” …[The upshot is that the fraud continues in churn-and-earn
fashion with investors, taxpayer, etc., getting burned for the sake of wall
street greed/fraud. The lunatic wall street frauds’ desperation linked to their
substantial crimes and booty which must be disgorged through prosecution,
especially since none of the real problems (hundreds
of trillions of fraudulent/worthless securities, etc. - Analyst Andre Egleshion
puts the amount at $600+trillion) have been
addressed much less solved; hence, virtually all problems remain and there is
but an infinitesimally small fraction of the capital and resources necessary to
solve them thanks to fraud, incompetence, lack of knowledge/ability, greed,
etc.]. U.S. Economy in 2nd Straight Quarter
of Steep Decline "You have to balance hope with reality," says
Doug Sandler, chief equity officer at Riverfront Investment Group. Sandler
tells Andrew O'Day "this is a good example of a year where you probably
have a lot of hope early, then the reality coming through Bank of America to need $34 billion in
capital: source Yen rises, stocks slip on Bank of
America needs Moody's downgrades NYSE Euronext debt (AP)
Auditors see SEC deficiencies
Stress Test Results Seem to Be Changing
Daily (at Seeking Alpha) We Haven't Reached the Bottom Yet About that “loan”: Obama team writes
off $7 billion taxpayers loaned Chrysler US Fed rejects request to help
credit card holders Fed Stress Tests to Show About 10 Banks Need Capital Gold Climbs to One-Week High as
Dollar Declines; Platinum Gains Editorial:
Bleak forecast for EU economies Michigan residents mine bodies for cash; Sellers offer
hair, blood... GM plans 1-for-100 reverse stock split...
The Economic Pain Ain't Over Yet Economic downturn ‘twice as bad as
feared’ NEEDS MORE: House Dems seek $94.2 billion in
'emergency funds'... Betrayal of the People By Wall Street, Banks, and
Government FLASH:
Treasury Borrows Record $361 Billion for 2nd Quarter... The Great Geithner Coverup Obama Maintains His Perfect
Batting Average for Appointing Failed Insiders to Key Economic Posts
Secretary of Labor Reich:
Unemployment Numbers Show We’re Already In a Depression
PREVIOUS 5-4-09, so preposterous was the day’s suckers’ rally that I cannot dignify same with my own commentary other than to say SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! Some perspective from Sajal… Excerpts – ie., …Mark Hulbert: That bullish bandwagon. Commentary: Some sentiment measures showing too much optimism Art Cashin: "This rally is still somewhat suspect. Albert Edwards : "Despite one of the biggest economics and profit collapses in history, US stocks have failed to get cheap in the same way that they have in Europe or Japan. My concern is that the US equity bear market has not yet fully played out. "The current pop in the market is not dissimilar to the many bear market rallies between 1929-1933, where signs of economic stabilisation were met with 25% plus rallies... This optimism was subsequently crushed." Charles Allmon … He still thinks the stock market could decline to 3,200-4,200 on the Dow by 2011-2012 -- and that it could cross the price of gold. Jim Bianco: "I don't think we are getting out of this for a long while. This has been a lousy stock rally. … …traders living in a fool's paradise if they continue to drive the markets higher by buying stocks based on earnings that are down, say, 50 percent from this time last year, only because they're not down 75 percent… Diane Garnick, investment strategist at Invesco...In an interview on Tech Ticker, Garnick says that companies are beating earnings expectations in the first quarter by Draconian cost-cutting, an unsustainable strategy for long-term growth. More importantly, although companies are beating profit estimates, thanks to the cost-cutting, they are missing expectations for revenue, she says. Further, cost-cutting via layoffs hurts the economy as a whole, Garnick argues, because the unemployed spend less money… U.S. Economy: GDP Shrinks in Worst Slump in 50 Years "You have to balance hope with reality," says Doug Sandler, chief equity officer at Riverfront Investment Group. Sandler tells Andrew O'Day "this is a good example of a year where you probably have a lot of hope early, then the reality coming through…” …[The upshot is that the fraud continues in churn-and-earn fashion with investors, taxpayer, etc., getting burned for the sake of wall street greed/fraud. The lunatic wall street frauds’ desperation linked to their substantial crimes and booty which must be disgorged through prosecution, especially since none of the real problems (hundreds of trillions of fraudulent/worthless securities, etc. - Analyst Andre Egleshion puts the amount at $600+trillion) have been addressed much less solved; hence, virtually all problems remain and there is but an infinitesimally small fraction of the capital and resources necessary to solve them thanks to fraud, incompetence, lack of knowledge/ability, greed, etc.]. U.S. Economy in 2nd Straight Quarter of Steep Decline "You have to balance hope with reality," says Doug Sandler, chief equity officer at Riverfront Investment Group. Sandler tells Andrew O'Day "this is a good example of a year where you probably have a lot of hope early, then the reality coming Georgia, N.J. and Utah banks fail The Economic Pain Ain't Over Yet Obama says financial sector to shrink (Reuters) Buffett dispenses gloom at Berkshire fest…daaaah! Warren Buffett warns inflation is on the horizon …daaah!(at Fortune) SHOCK CLAIM: WHITE HOUSE BULLY THREAT OVER AUTO BANKRUPTCY... China 'cutting down purchases of US Treasury bonds'... Obama: Wall Street will play less dominant role... ...financial sector to shrink European economy 'will shrink 4%' About 10 U.S. stress test banks to need more capital UBS remains cautious after confirming first-quarter loss AIG to post first-quarter loss, no new bailout: source Prepare for Another Round of U.S. 'Stimulus' Propaganda Swine Flu A Hoax, But Martial Law All Too Real U.S. families rely on handouts in world’s richest country Attack on the Chrysler Capitalists Obama Pushes ‘Crackdown’ on Legal Tax ‘Havens’ Economic downturn ‘twice as bad as feared’ NEEDS MORE: House Dems seek $94.2 billion in 'emergency funds'... Betrayal of the People By Wall Street, Banks, and Government FLASH: Treasury Borrows Record $361 Billion for 2nd Quarter... The Great Geithner Coverup Obama Maintains His Perfect Batting Average for Appointing Failed Insiders to Key Economic Posts Secretary of Labor Reich: Unemployment Numbers Show We’re Already In a Depression
PREVIOUS 5-1-09, suckers’ rally into the close to keep suckers sucked in based on very bad news [U.S. Economy: GDP Shrinks in Worst Slump in 50 Years , Georgia, N.J. banks fail, bringing '09 total to 31 , Auto sales plunge to near 30-year lows , Chrysler to close 5 more plants; court case begins , ‘China cancels America’s credit card’ , Mark Hulbert who tracks investment consensus says bear market rally and new lows before new highs , continuing claims for unemployment at new record 6.3 million, new claims at 631,000 for prior week, worse than expected are consumer spending -.2% and personal income -.3%, Chrysler receives additional $8 billion in taxpayer funds and files for bankruptcy, U.S. Economy in 2nd Straight Quarter of Steep Decline , leading economic indicators ( a forward looking guage of economic activity/growth) declined a much worse than expected –6.1% which one analyst commented was negative and getting worse, pandemic level raised to 5, banks need another trillion, new home sales down, durable goods sales down, 4 more bank failures to 27 for 2009 thus far, GM borrows $2 billion more/close dealers/many more layoffs, Ford loses almost $2 billion, Microsoft reports first decline in revenue ever, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rose to 640,000 Last Week as Continuing Claims Exceed 6.1 million for new record …k, etc. , home sales down 3%, prices down 12%, etc. ] and bull s**t ( fed says pace of decline slowing…riiiiight!, dilutive stock issues, not as bad as expected, Consumer confidence soars past forecasts (on fake conference board report) in April – riiiiight! Come on! Even americans are not that shortsighted /blind /dumb!… l , etc. ) alone to keep fraudulent wall street’s churn and earn commissionable bubble ( Interview with Peter Schiff: Reflating the Bubble ) fraud rolling (on the way up and on the way down) so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! ‘…economic conditions remain dour. Factory orders for March declined 0.9%, which is worse than the 0.6% decline that was widely expected, and February orders were revised lower to reflect an increase of 0.7%. Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing Index for April showed continued contraction. It came in at 40.1. However, that was better than the 38.4 that was expected, and was also up from 36.3 in March. With economic conditions continuing to challenge businesses and consumers, Ford (F 5.69, -0.29) announced April auto sales fell 31.6%, while General Motors (GM 1.81, -0.11) said its US sales fell 34% in April…’ …traders living in a fool's paradise if they continue to drive the markets higher by buying stocks based on earnings that are down, say, 50 percent from this time last year, only because they're not down 75 percent… Diane Garnick, investment strategist at Invesco...In an interview on Tech Ticker, Garnick says that companies are beating earnings expectations in the first quarter by Draconian cost-cutting, an unsustainable strategy for long-term growth. More importantly, although companies are beating profit estimates, thanks to the cost-cutting, they are missing expectations for revenue, she says. Further, cost-cutting via layoffs hurts the economy as a whole, Garnick argues, because the unemployed spend less money… U.S. Economy: GDP Shrinks in Worst Slump in 50 Years "You have to balance hope with reality," says Doug Sandler, chief equity officer at Riverfront Investment Group. Sandler tells Andrew O'Day "this is a good example of a year where you probably have a lot of hope early, then the reality coming through…” …[The upshot is that the fraud continues in churn-and-earn fashion with investors, taxpayer, etc., getting burned for the sake of wall street greed/fraud. The lunatic wall street frauds’ desperation linked to their substantial crimes and booty which must be disgorged through prosecution, especially since none of the real problems (hundreds of trillions of fraudulent/worthless securities, etc. - Analyst Andre Egleshion puts the amount at $600+trillion) have been addressed much less solved; hence, virtually all problems remain and there is but an infinitesimally small fraction of the capital and resources necessary to solve them thanks to fraud, incompetence, lack of knowledge/ability, greed, etc.]. U.S. Economy in 2nd Straight Quarter of Steep Decline Dollar falls on euro, up on yen on GDP hopes…riiiiight! "You have to balance hope with reality," says Doug Sandler, chief equity officer at Riverfront Investment Group. Sandler tells Andrew O'Day "this is a good example of a year where you probably have a lot of hope early, then the reality coming throughSocial Security: Bankrupt System Will Impact Markets Sooner Than Expected Georgia, N.J. banks fail, bringing '09 total to 31 U.S. Economy: GDP Shrinks in Worst Slump in 50 Years Auto sales plunge to near 30-year lows [$$] The Overvalued Market Needs a Healthy Pullback Major wholesale bank shuttered …Silverton, Ga…and then Ridgewood, n.j. for 31st bank failure this year (at CNNMoney.com) Manufacturing declines at slower rate in April … riiiiight!…(AP) Chrysler to close 5 more plants; court case begins Results delayed again on banks stress tests …the fudge factor!…(at bizjournals.com) Regulators close two more banks U.S. families rely on handouts in world’s formerly richest country Elliot Wave Theorists Claim Pandemics Always Happen In a Bear Market CITI Said to Need Up to $10 Billion; Bank Disputes 'Stress Test' Result... ‘China cancels America’s credit card’ China, wary of the troubled US economy, has ‘canceled America’s credit card’ by cutting down purchases of debt, a US congressman says. Top Senate Democrat: bankers “own” the U.S. Congress Stress-Test Results Are Delayed by Fed as Examiners, Banks Debate Findings... Economy shrinks at worse-than-expected pace... Metro Unemployment Skyrockets; Some Cities See Rates Comparable To Great Depression... STRESS: Fed Finds at Least 6 of 19 Biggest Banks Need to Raise More Capital... CITI scrambles... MSNBC's Washington HQ Can't Make Rent: Looking to Share Space with Local U... Betrayal of the People By Wall Street, Banks, and Government FLASH: Treasury Borrows Record $361 Billion for 2nd Quarter... The Great Geithner Coverup Obama Maintains His Perfect Batting Average for Appointing Failed Insiders to Key Economic Posts Secretary of Labor Reich: Unemployment Numbers Show We’re Already In a Depression
PREVIOUS 4-30-09, very modest losses relative to reality to keep suckers sucked in based on very bad news [Continuing claims for unemployment at new record 6.3 million, new claims at 631,000 for prior week, worse than expected are consumer spending -.2% and personal income -.3%, Chrysler receives additional $8 billion in taxpayer funds and files for bankruptcy, U.S. Economy in 2nd Straight Quarter of Steep Decline , leading economic indicators ( a forward looking guage of economic activity/growth) declined a much worse than expected –6.1% which one analyst commented was negative and getting worse, pandemic level raised to 5, banks need another trillion, new home sales down, durable goods sales down, 4 more bank failures to 27 for 2009 thus far, GM borrows $2 billion more/close dealers/many more layoffs, Ford loses almost $2 billion, Microsoft reports first decline in revenue ever, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rose to 640,000 Last Week as Continuing Claims Exceed 6.1 million for new record …k, etc. , home sales down 3%, prices down 12%, etc. ] and bull s**t ( fed says pace of decline slowing…riiiiight!, dilutive stock issues, not as bad as expected, Consumer confidence soars past forecasts (on fake conference board report) in April – riiiiight! Come on! Even americans are not that shortsighted /blind /dumb!… l , etc. ) alone to keep fraudulent wall street’s churn and earn commissionable bubble ( Interview with Peter Schiff: Reflating the Bubble ) fraud rolling (on the way up and on the way down) so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! …traders living in a fool's paradise if they continue to drive the markets higher by buying stocks based on earnings that are down, say, 50 percent from this time last year, only because they're not down 75 percent… Diane Garnick, investment strategist at Invesco...In an interview on Tech Ticker, Garnick says that companies are beating earnings expectations in the first quarter by Draconian cost-cutting, an unsustainable strategy for long-term growth. More importantly, although companies are beating profit estimates, thanks to the cost-cutting, they are missing expectations for revenue, she says. Further, cost-cutting via layoffs hurts the economy as a whole, Garnick argues, because the unemployed spend less money… U.S. Economy: GDP Shrinks in Worst Slump in 50 Years "You have to balance hope with reality," says Doug Sandler, chief equity officer at Riverfront Investment Group. Sandler tells Andrew O'Day "this is a good example of a year where you probably have a lot of hope early, then the reality coming through…” …[The upshot is that the fraud continues in churn-and-earn fashion with investors, taxpayer, etc., getting burned for the sake of wall street greed/fraud. The lunatic wall street frauds’ desperation linked to their substantial crimes and booty which must be disgorged through prosecution, especially since none of the real problems (hundreds of trillions of fraudulent/worthless securities, etc. - Analyst Andre Egleshion puts the amount at $600+trillion) have been addressed much less solved; hence, virtually all problems remain and there is but an infinitesimally small fraction of the capital and resources necessary to solve them thanks to fraud, incompetence, lack of knowledge/ability, greed, etc.]. U.S. Economy in 2nd Straight Quarter of Steep Decline Dollar falls on euro, up on yen on GDP hopes…riiiiight! "You have to balance hope with reality," says Doug Sandler, chief equity officer at Riverfront Investment Group. Sandler tells Andrew O'Day "this is a good example of a year where you probably have a lot of hope early, then the reality coming through…” Chrysler files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy Motorola loss widens; analysts see worrisome signs Dow Chemical 1Q profit tumbles 97 percent With earnings bar low, April fraudulently strong for stocks Will the Swine Flu Get the Same Response as the Financial Crisis - Protect the Status Quo without Really Changing Anything? U.S. Economy: GDP Shrinks in Worst Slump in 50 Years Top Senate Democrat: bankers “own” the U.S. Congress Stress-Test Results Are Delayed by Fed as Examiners, Banks Debate Findings... Economy shrinks at worse-than-expected pace... Metro Unemployment Skyrockets; Some Cities See Rates Comparable To Great Depression... STRESS: Fed Finds at Least 6 of 19 Biggest Banks Need to Raise More Capital... CITI scrambles... MSNBC's Washington HQ Can't Make Rent: Looking to Share Space with Local U... Betrayal of the People By Wall Street, Banks, and Government FLASH: Treasury Borrows Record $361 Billion for 2nd Quarter... The Great Geithner Coverup Obama Maintains His Perfect Batting Average for Appointing Failed Insiders to Key Economic Posts Secretary of Labor Reich: Unemployment Numbers Show We’re Already In a Depression
PREVIOUS 4-29-09, flagrant suckers’ rally to keep suckers sucked in based on very bad news [ U.S. Economy in 2nd Straight Quarter of Steep Decline leading economic indicators ( a forward looking guage of economic activity/growth) declined a much worse than expected –6.1% which one analyst commented was negative and getting worse, pandemic level raised to 5, banks need another trillion, new home sales down, durable goods sales down, 4 more bank failures to 27 for 2009 thus far, GM borrows $2 billion more/close dealers/many more layoffs, Ford loses almost $2 billion, Microsoft reports first decline in revenue ever, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rose to 640,000 Last Week as Continuing Claims Exceed 6.1 million for new record …k, etc. , home sales down 3%, prices down 12%, etc. ] and bull s**t ( fed says pace of decline slowing…riiiiight!, dilutive stock issues, not as bad as expected, Consumer confidence soars past forecasts (on fake conference board report) in April – riiiiight! Come on! Even americans are not that shortsighted /blind /dumb!… l , etc. ) alone to keep fraudulent wall street’s churn and earn commissionable bubble ( Interview with Peter Schiff: Reflating the Bubble ) fraud rolling (on the way up and on the way down) so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! …traders living in a fool's paradise if they continue to drive the markets higher by buying stocks based on earnings that are down, say, 50 percent from this time last year, only because they're not down 75 percent… Diane Garnick, investment strategist at Invesco...In an interview on Tech Ticker, Garnick says that companies are beating earnings expectations in the first quarter by Draconian cost-cutting, an unsustainable strategy for long-term growth. More importantly, although companies are beating profit estimates, thanks to the cost-cutting, they are missing expectations for revenue, she says. Further, cost-cutting via layoffs hurts the economy as a whole, Garnick argues, because the unemployed spend less money… "You have to balance hope with reality," says Doug Sandler, chief equity officer at Riverfront Investment Group. Sandler tells Andrew O'Day "this is a good example of a year where you probably have a lot of hope early, then the reality coming through…” …[The upshot is that the fraud continues in churn-and-earn fashion with investors, taxpayer, etc., getting burned for the sake of wall street greed/fraud. The lunatic wall street frauds’ desperation linked to their substantial crimes and booty which must be disgorged through prosecution, especially since none of the real problems (hundreds of trillions of fraudulent/worthless securities, etc. - Analyst Andre Egleshion puts the amount at $600+trillion) have been addressed much less solved; hence, virtually all problems remain and there is but an infinitesimally small fraction of the capital and resources necessary to solve them thanks to fraud, incompetence, lack of knowledge/ability, greed, etc.]. U.S. Economy in 2nd Straight Quarter of Steep Decline Dollar falls on euro, up on yen on GDP hopes…riiiiight! "You have to balance hope with reality," says Doug Sandler, chief equity officer at Riverfront Investment Group. Sandler tells Andrew O'Day "this is a good example of a year where you probably have a lot of hope early, then the reality coming through…” Economy shrinks at worse-than-expected pace... Metro Unemployment Skyrockets; Some Cities See Rates Comparable To Great Depression... STRESS: Fed Finds at Least 6 of 19 Biggest Banks Need to Raise More Capital... CITI scrambles... MSNBC's Washington HQ Can't Make Rent: Looking to Share Space with Local U... Betrayal of the People By Wall Street, Banks, and Government FLASH: Treasury Borrows Record $361 Billion for 2nd Quarter... The Great Geithner Coverup Obama Maintains His Perfect Batting Average for Appointing Failed Insiders to Key Economic Posts Secretary of Labor Reich: Unemployment Numbers Show We’re Already In a Depression
PREVIOUS 4-28-09, very modest losses relative to reality to keep suckers sucked in based on bad news (banks need another trillion, new home sales down, durable goods sales down, 4 more bank failures, GM borrows $2 billion more, Ford loses almost $2 billion, Microsoft reports first decline in revenue ever, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rose to 640,000 Last Week as Continuing Claims Exceed 6.1 million for new record …k, etc. , home sales down 3%, prices down 12%, etc. ) and bull s**t ( dilutive stock issues, not as bad as expected, Consumer confidence soars past forecasts (on fake conference board report) in April – riiiiight! Come on! Even americans are not that shortsighted /blind /dumb!… l etc. ) alone to keep fraudulent wall street’s churn and earn commissionable bubble ( Interview with Peter Schiff: Reflating the Bubble ) fraud rolling (on the way up and on the way down) so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! Sun's loss widens on restructuring, slumping sales Citi, BofA may need more capital after stress tests (Reuters) GM to force more than 1,000 dealers to close Douglas, Stone head back to `Wall Street' (AP) E-Trade Financial 1st-qtr loss widens, shares fall (AP) Textron's 1st-quarter profit falls 63 pct (AP) …traders living in a fool's paradise if they continue to drive the markets higher by buying stocks based on earnings that are down, say, 50 percent from this time last year, only because they're not down 75 percent… Diane Garnick, investment strategist at Invesco...In an interview on Tech Ticker, Garnick says that companies are beating earnings expectations in the first quarter by Draconian cost-cutting, an unsustainable strategy for long-term growth. More importantly, although companies are beating profit estimates, thanks to the cost-cutting, they are missing expectations for revenue, she says.Further, cost-cutting via layoffs hurts the economy as a whole, Garnick argues, because the unemployed spend less money… Betrayal of the People By Wall Street, Banks, and Government FLASH: Treasury Borrows Record $361 Billion for 2nd Quarter... The Great Geithner Coverup Obama Maintains His Perfect Batting Average for Appointing Failed Insiders to Key Economic Posts Secretary of Labor Reich: Unemployment Numbers Show We’re Already In a Depression
PREVIOUS 4-27-09, only modest losses relative to reality to keep suckers sucked in based on bad news (banks need another trillion, new home sales down, durable goods sales down, 4 more bank failures, GM borrows $2 billion more, Ford loses almost $2 billion, Microsoft reports first decline in revenue ever, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rose to 640,000 Last Week as Continuing Claims Exceed 6.1 million for new record …k, etc. , home sales down 3%, prices down 12%, etc. ) and bull s**t ( dilutive stock issues, not as bad as expected, etc. ) alone to keep fraudulent wall street’s churn and earn commissionable bubble ( Interview with Peter Schiff: Reflating the Bubble ) fraud rolling (on the way up and on the way down) so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! …traders living in a fool's paradise if they continue to drive the markets higher by buying stocks based on earnings that are down, say, 50 percent from this time last year, only because they're not down 75 percent… Diane Garnick, investment strategist at Invesco...In an interview on Tech Ticker, Garnick says that companies are beating earnings expectations in the first quarter by Draconian cost-cutting, an unsustainable strategy for long-term growth. More importantly, although companies are beating profit estimates, thanks to the cost-cutting, they are missing expectations for revenue, she says.Further, cost-cutting via layoffs hurts the economy as a whole, Garnick argues, because the unemployed spend less money… Betrayal of the People By Wall Street, Banks, and Government GM OFFERS ITSELF UP FOR NATIONALIZATION... FLASH: Treasury Borrows Record $361 Billion for 2nd Quarter... GM goes for broke Corporate CFR Members Get Most of the Bailout Money Flu fears dampen talk of tentative world recovery Raised pandemic risk, bank capital report fuels fresh fears US newspaper circulation sees biggest decline yet (AP) WSJ: Regulators urge BofA, Citi to boost capital
GM goes for broke CNNMoney | General Motors announced plans Monday to cut 23,000 U.S. jobs by 2011, drop its storied Pontiac brand and slash 40% of its dealer network in its latest bid to stay out of bankruptcy.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rose to 640,000 Last Week
Gore Denies that Ken Lay, Goldman Sachs CEOs Helped Develop C02 Trading ‘Scheme’: VIDEO
PREVIOUS 4-24-09, suckers’ bear
market rally to keep suckers sucked in based on bad news ( new home sales down,
durable goods sales down, 4 more bank failures, GM borrows $2 billion more,
Ford loses almost $2 billion, Microsoft reports first decline in revenue
ever, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rose to
640,000 Last Week as Continuing Claims Exceed 6.1 million for new record …k,
etc. , home sales down 3%, prices down 12%, etc. ) and bull
s**t ( dilutive stock issues, not as bad as expected, etc. ) alone to
keep fraudulent wall street’s churn and earn commissionable bubble ( Interview with Peter Schiff: Reflating the Bubble ) fraud
rolling (on the way up and on the way down) so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE
PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! Watch out for the fake government
stress tests (they lie about everything!). Note the delay in the rollout. Bank
analyst Cassidy says bank plan a failure. Business week business analyst
/reporter says (tongue in cheek) the optimism (irrational exuberance) must be
the advent of spring and the birds chirping (in the heads of the wall street
lunatic/frauds…cukoos). Analysts/Economists comments include: slow release of
stress test results, details and accuracy of data crucial for stress tests
(good luck!), things have not bottomed out but pace of decline has slowed
somewhat, bleak outlook for GM, Chrysler and bankruptcy probably necessary
because of legacy costs, and public pension funds with ridiculously rich
benefits the next shoe to drop. Oxdown Gazette sums up the crucial story | ‘The 12 trillion that is being floated
to insolvent US banks is essentially being looted in the paper economy’ (ie.,
churn and earn by wall street fraudsters who must be prosecuted and forced
disgorgement/forfeiture in the massive securities fraud that still goes
unmentioned though the source of this economic debacle, etc.).
Four more banks shuttered as credit
crunch shakes out Why Housing Is Not Coming Back
Obama Talks Credit Cards, Summers
Nods Off This Volatility Is Off the Charts! Banks
May Struggle After 'Stress Tests'; Bad Assets Triple...
R.I.P.: GM to pull the plug on Pontiac...
Four
more banks closed by regulators, this years closures exceeding all of 2008 as
depression continues John Letzing, MarketWatch April 24, 2009 SAN FRANCISCO
(MarketWatch) -- Four banks in Georgia, Michigan, California and Idaho were
closed by regulators Friday, costing the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s
deposit insurance fund nearly $700 million as the effects of the credit crisis
continued rippling throughout the U.S. economy. Kennesaw,
Ga.-based American Southern Bank marked the 26th bank failure of the year and
the fifth in the state of Georgia, the FDIC said. Farmington Hills, Mich.-based
Michigan Heritage Bank then became the 27th failure of 2009, followed by the
closure of Calabasas, Ca.-based First Bank of Beverly Hills. Alpharetta,
Ga.-based Bank of North Georgia has agreed to assume American Southern Bank's
deposits, the FDIC said in a statement…
Germany’s slump risks ‘explosive’ mood as second banking
crisis looms China Increases Gold Reserves 76% to
Fifth-Largest
PREVIOUS 4-23-09, suckers’ rally in last 30 minutes to keep suckers sucked in based on bad news ( U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rose to 640,000 Last Week as Continuing Claims Exceed 6.1 million for new record …k, etc. , home sales down 3%, prices down 12%, etc. ) and bull s**t ( dilutive stock issues, not as bad as expected, etc. ) alone to keep fraudulent wall street’s churn and earn commissionable bubble ( Interview with Peter Schiff: Reflating the Bubble ) fraud rolling (on the way up and on the way down) so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! Watch out for the fake government stress tests (they lie about everything!). Oxdown Gazette sums up the crucial story | ‘The 12 trillion that is being floated to insolvent US banks is essentially being looted in the paper economy’ (ie., churn and earn by wall street fraudsters who must be prosecuted and forced disgorgement/forfeiture in the massive securities fraud that still goes unmentioned though the source of this economic debacle, etc.). U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rose to 640,000 Last Week as Continuing Claims Exceed 6.1 million for new record …k Russia’s economy shrank a staggering 9.5% in first quarter Truth About TARP Reports: GM to Shut Down Plants for the Summer President's financial adviser falls asleep while Obama talks! ON THE BRINK: Feds preparing bankruptcy filing for CHRYSLER... AMEX Profit Drops 58% as Defaults Rise, Consumers Cut Spending... Microsoft's sales show fallout of recession Normura posts record $7.3 billion annual loss Interview with Peter Schiff: Reflating the Bubble
Soaring U.S. Budget Deficit Will Mean Billions in Bond Sales Housing bubble smackdown: Huge “shadow inventory” portends a bigger crash ahead AP Sources:GM to shut many US plants up to 9 weeks - General Motors Corp. is planning to temporarily close most of its U.S. factories for up to nine weeks this summer because of slumping sales and growing inventories of unsold vehicles, three people bri… [$$] Morgan Stanley Still at Loss (at The Wall Street Journal Online) [$$] Gauging Stress: More Losses Likely (at The Wall Street Journal Online) No quick cybersecurity fix seen Banks still in distress, Geithner tells overseers…DAAAAAH! How ‘bout insolvent!…(AP) David Tice: S&P 500 To Plunge to 325 Housing Starts Fall Sharply... Wall Street loses 3,100 jobs in March … Should lose another 90% OF THEIR CHURN AND EARN JOBS (Reuters) Treasury Stress Test Won't Add Clarity or Transparency - Just Inconsistency … and lack of meaningful FASB standard (ie., mark to market abolition, etc.) means more fraud (at Seeking Alpha) Questions linger over Tarp funding... MAJOR MALL OPERATOR FILES FOR BANKRUPTCY... JPMorgan and Goldman trading profits unlikely to last Reuters The Great Geithner Coverup Obama Maintains His Perfect Batting Average for Appointing Failed Insiders to Key Economic Posts Secretary of Labor Reich: Unemployment Numbers Show We’re Already In a Depression
PREVIOUS 4-22-09, modest losses relative to reality in mixed market close so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! Oxdown Gazette sums up the crucial story | ‘The 12 trillion that is being floated to insolvent US banks is essentially being looted in the paper economy’(ie., churn and earn by wall street fraudsters who must be prosecuted and forced disgorgement/forfeiture in the massive securities fraud that still goes unmentioned though the source of this economic debacle, etc.). ‘For the second session in a row, stocks opened lower but buyers moved in to bid the major indices higher (based on nothing at all). However, upward momentum stalled as the S&P 500 approached the 850 level in the final hour of trading, which prompted sellers to re-enter the fold and hand stocks a sizeable loss. The late selling effort focused on financial stocks, which closed with a loss of 3.8%, worse than any other sector in the S&P 500. Shares of Morgan Stanley (MS 22.44, -2.21) weighed heavily on the financial sector after the company reported a larger-than-expected first quarter loss and a dividend cut.’
Gold Heading Above $2,000 by End of 2010: Strategist Soaring U.S. Budget Deficit Will Mean Billions in Bond Sales Housing bubble smackdown: Huge “shadow inventory” portends a bigger crash ahead AP Sources:GM to shut many US plants up to 9 weeks - General Motors Corp. is planning to temporarily close most of its U.S. factories for up to nine weeks this summer because of slumping sales and growing inventories of unsold vehicles, three people bri... Falling bank stocks unravel rally; Dow loses 83 - Nagging worries about banks upended a stock market rally Wednesday. [$$] Morgan Stanley Still at Loss (at The Wall Street Journal Online) Talks on mortgage relief plan hit a snag (AP) - Negotiations between the banking industry and Senate Democrats on a mortgage relief plan hit a snag Wednesday after a trade association representing credit unions said it could not endorse the proposa... [$$] Gauging Stress: More Losses Likely (at The Wall Street Journal Online) No quick cybersecurity fix seen Banks still in distress, Geithner tells overseers…DAAAAAH! How ‘bout insolvent!…(AP) David Tice: S&P 500 To Plunge to 325 Housing Starts Fall Sharply... Wall Street loses 3,100 jobs in March … Should lose another 90% OF THEIR CHURN AND EARN JOBS (Reuters) Treasury Stress Test Won't Add Clarity or Transparency - Just Inconsistency … and lack of meaningful FASB standard (ie., mark to market abolition, etc.) means more fraud (at Seeking Alpha) Questions linger over Tarp funding... MAJOR MALL OPERATOR FILES FOR BANKRUPTCY... JPMorgan and Goldman trading profits unlikely to last Reuters The Great Geithner Coverup Obama Maintains His Perfect Batting Average for Appointing Failed Insiders to Key Economic Posts Secretary of Labor Reich: Unemployment Numbers Show We’re Already In a Depression
PREVIOUS 4-21-09, Tiny Tim talks the talk in testimony tit for tat talking the talk, or stated another way, how much talk could tiny tim talk if a tiny tim could talk talk, said three times fast and you have the inspiration for a rally on fraudulent wall street based on bull s**t alone as bad news and bull s**t alone has kept the churn and earn commissionable bubble fraud rolling (on the way up and on the way down) so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! Even main stream business radio reporter Laura Gregory references the ‘rally based on nothing at all’, which of course is true. One analyst said all bank problems remain and reality would not limit the remaining problems to banks. IMF says $2.7 trillion in losses ahead for (u.s.) banks. judd greg says u.s. couldn’t meet the economic criteria for admission to EU. WOW! Given the economic state of the EU, that’s worse than bad! Seeking Alpha Analyst sums it up ‘…The six-week-long rally is over. It was huge. The Dow Jones is up almost 1500 points. But the party is over. The Dow Jones fell under its 13 day moving average, the same thing happened to the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq composite. I had some hope that the Naz could stay above its 13 day MA, but no such luck. Now what? According to the 1932 scenario, we might have a 2-3 months long slump, followed by another bull market. Or the market can go down big time, cross down its 50 day MA and test the March lows…’ - The latter is the scenario consonant with reality. - He assumes best case scenario as he concludes that ‘…means that either the March low holds or a new low will not be much lower. – Reality disagrees with that overly rosy scenario based upon his stated overly rosy assumption! Crimes suspected in 20 bailout cases — for starters AIG eats another $30 billion-ish Housing Bubble Smackdown: Bigger Crash Ahead U.S. Stocks To Fall at Least 6%: Doug Kass Key Points About the Coming Hyperinflation Wall St gains as banks lifted by tiny tim’s b.s NYT losses worsen as ad sales plunge 27%... Yahoo to cut 5 percent of jobs Wall St gains as banks lifted by tiny tim’s b.s. AMD posts deeper loss, shares fall (AP) [$$] Connecticut Treasurer Joins Critics of BofA CEO (at The Wall Street Journal Online) [$$] Citi Investors Vent About Losses (at The Wall Street Journal Online) Banks still in distress, Geithner tells overseers…DAAAAAH! How ‘bout insolvent!…(AP) David Tice: S&P 500 To Plunge to 325 Housing Starts Fall Sharply... Wall Street loses 3,100 jobs in March … Should lose another 90% OF THEIR CHURN AND EARN JOBS (Reuters) Treasury Stress Test Won't Add Clarity or Transparency - Just Inconsistency … and lack of meaningful FASB standard (ie., mark to market abolition, etc.) means more fraud (at Seeking Alpha) Questions linger over Tarp funding... MAJOR MALL OPERATOR FILES FOR BANKRUPTCY... JPMorgan and Goldman trading profits unlikely to last Reuters The Great Geithner Coverup Obama Maintains His Perfect Batting Average for Appointing Failed Insiders to Key Economic Posts Secretary of Labor Reich: Unemployment Numbers Show We’re Already In a Depression
Citigroup: The Beginning and End of the Current Rally (at Seeking Alpha) Why BAC Will Beat: Understanding a New Bull Market Is Not Underway (at Seeking Alpha) Government's Handling of Economic Crisis - Einstein Would Call It Insane (at Seeking Alpha) Bank of America net up, shares sink on bad loans GM cutting 1,600 U.S. salaried positions IBM sales fall more than expected, but b.s. up Wall Street sinks on banks' woes Wall Street tumbles as investors dump financials (AP) IBM shares slip as 1Q sales fall short (AP) New embrace of reality about bank health grip Wall Street Backdoor Path To Bank Nationalization (at CNBC) Zions Bancorp Swings To 1Q Loss; Moody's Cuts Ratings Economic Downturn Negatively Affecting Credit Markets in Varied Industries Celente: “America lives in a fascist state” Backdoor Nationalization? U.S. May Convert Banks’ Bailouts to Equity Share Why a 50% Drop in Housing Is Not the Bottom
PREVIOUS 4-17-09 (4-14,15,16,-09), Suckers’ rally into the close to keep the suckers’ suckered on bad news and bull s**t alone so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
April 17 (Bloomberg) -- David Tice, the chief portfolio
strategist for bear markets at Federated Investors Inc., said the
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will probably plunge about 62 percent.
He spoke during a Bloomberg Television interview today. The Federated Prudent
Bear Fund that he founded returned 6.7 percent last year as the S&P 500
plunged 38 percent, the most since 1937. Tice said the benchmark index for U.S.
stocks may slump to about 325. It closed today at 865.30. The measure has
surged 28 percent since March 9, the most in five weeks since the 1930s. SUCKER'S RALLY APPROACHING AN END by Peter
Cooper: Whatever the technical reason for the
25 percent rise in the S&P over the past five weeks, or a more modest eight
percent bounce in GCC regional stock prices, the absurdness of this sucker’s
rally ought to be obvious to all. Unemployment is still rising, house prices
are still falling, and the fundamentals of bank balance sheets are still
deteriorating with total bad debts unknown except that we know they must be
getting worse. Global trade fell off a cliff in the first quarter of the year.
Even Mercedes car sales to the oil rich of the GCC fell 23 per cent. The
collapse of the world’s second largest economy, Japan, has been unprecedented.
Bad news coming … The stock market pattern in 2008-9
has so far been a mirror image of the crash of 1929-30 with a halving of prices
from the autumn followed by a 25 per cent rally from March lows. In April 1930
stocks moved sideways and then they crashed another 50 per cent into the
summer… New record
continuing unemployment claims in excess of 6 million, -11% for new home sales
(unexpected but stocks and even homebuilders rallied), Bloomberg reports $13
trillion (much unaccounted for) taxpayer/bailout funds spent/lent/stolen by who
knows what/where/how (ie.,replace stolen funds?, etc.), second largest mall co.
to bankruptcy with more to come along with more commercial real estate
foreclosures. ‘…initial
claims for the week ending April 11 totaled 610,000, which is down more than
expected from the prior week, but continuing claims climbed more than expected
to a new record of 6.02 million. Separately, housing starts disappointed
investors hoping to find signs of a recovery in home building. Housing starts
for March totaled 510,000, which was below the 540,000 starts that were
expected and down from the prior month. Meanwhile, building permits in March
totaled 513,000, which is below the 549,000 permits that were expected, down
from February…’
SUCKER'S
RALLY APPROACHING AN END by Peter Cooper: Whatever the technical reason for the 25 percent rise in the
S&P over the past five weeks, or a more modest eight percent bounce in GCC
regional stock prices, the absurdness of this sucker’s rally ought to be
obvious to all. Unemployment is still rising, house prices are still falling,
and the fundamentals of bank balance sheets are still deteriorating with total
bad debts unknown except that we know they must be getting worse. Global trade
fell off a cliff in the first quarter of the year. Even Mercedes car sales to
the oil rich of the GCC fell 23 per cent. The collapse of the world’s second
largest economy, Japan, has been unprecedented.
Bad news coming
… The stock market pattern in 2008-9 has so far been a mirror image of the
crash of 1929-30 with a halving of prices from the autumn followed by a 25 per
cent rally from March lows. In April 1930 stocks moved sideways and then they
crashed another 50 per cent into the summer. What possible reason is there for
optimism to believe that history will not repeat itself? Government stimulus
packages have more than likely been too small and too late to prevent another
down leg in stocks, and will take time to revive the real economy, if indeed
they can do so. They might just stop the worst possible scenario but are they
going to prevent the plunge downwards? Governments have not managed it so far.
Consumers and
unemployment
…It will take more than weasel words from US bankers and ‘green shoots’ in the
waffle of President Obama to put things right. Eventually global stock markets
will reach a bottom but they are not close to having visited it just yet. Wall
Street and its friends are playing investors as suckers but they are in danger
of overdoing it. For once these guys are impoverished where will the next bunch
of fools come from? Goldman Sachs' (GS)
results this week might well mark the top of the rally, beyond that the only
way is down.
Citigroup: The Beginning and End of the Current Rally (at Seeking Alpha) Why BAC Will Beat: Understanding a New Bull Market Is Not Underway (at Seeking Alpha) Government's Handling of Economic Crisis - Einstein Would Call It Insane (at Seeking Alpha) Bank of America net up, shares sink on bad loans GM cutting 1,600 U.S. salaried positions IBM sales fall more than expected, but b.s. up Wall Street sinks on banks' woes Wall Street tumbles as investors dump financials (AP) IBM shares slip as 1Q sales fall short (AP) New embrace of reality about bank health grip Wall Street Backdoor Path To Bank Nationalization (at CNBC) Zions Bancorp Swings To 1Q Loss; Moody's Cuts Ratings Economic Downturn Negatively Affecting Credit Markets in Varied Industries Celente: “America lives in a fascist state” Backdoor Nationalization? U.S. May Convert Banks’ Bailouts to Equity Share Why a 50% Drop in Housing Is Not the Bottom
PREVIOUS (4-14-09), Suckers’ rally into the close to keep the suckers’ suckered on bad news and bull s**t alone so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! Retail sales down –1.1%. ‘…The downward push came as financial stocks fell out of favor and disappointing retail sales data led some to second guess the prospects of retailers. Financial stocks weighed on the broader market for the entire session and finished with a 7.7% loss. The sector's weakness was widespread, but investment banks and brokerages (-10.7%) suffered some of the steepest declines after Goldman Sachs (GS 115.92, -14.23) announced a $5 billion common equity offering that was discounted from the prior session's closing price. The offering will also prove dilutive to existing shareholders…’ Jim Rogers Says Investors Should Expect More Bottoms BULL S**T STORIES FOISTED AS B.S. TALKING POINT FOR CONTINUING FRAUD/SPIKE IN STOCK PRICES FOR CHURN AND EARN COMMISSIONING: WELLS FARGO RECEIVES $25 BILLION TAXPAYER MONEY/BAILOUT FUNDS AND SHOWS (RECORD FOR THEM?) $3 BILLION QUARTERLY PROFIT- GOLDMAN RECEIVED $10 BILLION PLUS UNDISCLOSED FED/ ULTIMATELY TAXPAYER MONEY AND REPORTS QUARTERLY $1.8 BILLION PROFIT - DO THE MATH (FIRST GRADE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL KIDS COULD DO AS WELL, AND FOR FAR LESS PAY) - AT THAT RATE, TAXPAYERS WILL SOON HAVE NOTHING LEFT FOR THEM TO TAX! WHAT FRAUDS! The Great Geithner Coverup WHAT TOTAL BULL S**T! U.S. Treasury asking banks keep quiet on stress tests New unemployment claims at high 654,000 praised as positive number…riiiiight!…as continuing unemployment claims at record 5.84 million (real numbers even worse). Economy so bad that consumers can’t buy goods so trade deficit shrank but this is a structural defect in u.s. economy so not good news and consistent with bad news of still plunging retail sector. Najarian points out that wall street always a circus, consolidation, robbing peter to pay paul, take profits; while economist cite Reich that we’re in depression and government as in land of fruits and nuts out of control. Earnings revised downward for first quarter –36.5%, more weakness, more unemployment, inflation to come on fast says Hogan, and insurance companies now que up at corporate welfare/taxpayer bailout lines. In positing (suckers’) bear market rally and advocating hold cash/sell stocks Hillary Kramer points to the preposterous on wall street where bad news greated as good vis-ŕ-vis stocks (they call what wall street does ‘fraud’…in a rational world where they would already be in jail). Madman Cramer – the ultimate contrarian indicator - CRAMER'S CALL: ANOTHER RALLY TOP INDICATOR Greg Feirman Wow, the bulls are really feeling good. “Wells Fargo Carries The Day” and the S&P and Dow closed at 2 months high and the Nasdaq is near its highs for the year. On Mad Money this evening, Cramer went so far as to call “a turn in the economy”, saying “the facts have changed”, “the situation has clearly improved” and “things are getting better”. This isn’t the first time Cramer has called a bottom and he’s been wrong before (For example, see “Cramer Declares The End Of The Bear Market” , Top Gun FP, July 31, 2008). The market topped out a couple weeks later. On Monday October 6, Cramer went on the today show and told people to sell any stock money they might need in the next five years. The market bottomed that Friday. It could run another couple weeks but this rally is running thin. Methinks me smells a top….. Rational View Courtesy of ETF.COM: ‘…Due to our expectations of continued weakness in the financial sector, the looming deterioration of commercial real estate, the credit markets tepid backing of the equity rally, and the still very shaky and highly volatile global economy, it's our view at ETFdesk.com the recent run-up in stocks is unwarranted and presents an overly optimistic view of the months ahead. We believe investors should consider taking short term profits or use the recent run to reduce equity exposure they are weary of. We also believe investment grade debt (NYSEArca: LQD - News) represents an opportunity for investors seeking beaten down prices without the downside volatility of equities…’ The Great Geithner Coverup Secretary of Labor Reich: Unemployment Numbers Show We’re Already In a Depression Fed sees economy sliding further A Bear in Bull's Clothing: Why This Rally Will Fall Short Goldman Sachs Q1: Pay Up, People Down Dealbreaker Afterdark: Fannie Mae CEO To Head Bailout Nation UBS cuts 8,700 more jobs Let's Keep Big Banks from Ruining America Forever (at Seeking Alpha) China's ICBC now world's largest bank by deposits (at MarketWatch) UBS faces $1.8 billion loss, will cut almost 9,000 more jobs World Economy Falling Faster Than in 1929-1930 The Geithner-Summers Plan is Even Worse Than Thought Author who predicted crisis sees hyperinflation ahead
PREVIOUS (4-13-09), ’ Jim Rogers Says Investors Should Expect More Bottoms BULL S**T STORIES FOISTED AS B.S. TALKING POINT FOR CONTINUING FRAUD/SPIKE IN STOCK PRICES FOR CHURN AND EARN COMMISSIONING: WELLS FARGO RECEIVES $25 BILLION TAXPAYER MONEY/BAILOUT FUNDS AND SHOWS (RECORD FOR THEM?) $3 BILLION QUARTERLY PROFIT- GOLDMAN RECEIVED $10 BILLION PLUS UNDISCLOSED FED/ ULTIMATELY TAXPAYER MONEY AND REPORTS QUARTERLY $1.8 BILLION PROFIT - DO THE MATH (FIRST GRADE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL KIDS COULD DO AS WELL, AND FOR FAR LESS PAY) - AT THAT RATE, TAXPAYERS WILL SOON HAVE NOTHING LEFT FOR THEM TO TAX! WHAT FRAUDS! The Great Geithner Coverup WHAT TOTAL BULL S**T! U.S. Treasury asking banks keep quiet on stress tests New unemployment claims at high 654,000 praised as positive number…riiiiight!…as continuing unemployment claims at record 5.84 million (real numbers even worse). Economy so bad that consumers can’t buy goods so trade deficit shrank but this is a structural defect in u.s. economy so not good news and consistent with bad news of still plunging retail sector. Najarian points out that wall street always a circus, consolidation, robbing peter to pay paul, take profits; while economist cite Reich that we’re in depression and government as in land of fruits and nuts out of control. Earnings revised downward for first quarter –36.5%, more weakness, more unemployment, inflation to come on fast says Hogan, and insurance companies now que up at corporate welfare/taxpayer bailout lines. In positing (suckers’) bear market rally and advocating hold cash/sell stocks Hillary Kramer points to the preposterous on wall street where bad news greated as good vis-ŕ-vis stocks (they call what wall street does ‘fraud’…in a rational world where they would already be in jail). Madman Cramer – the ultimate contrarian indicator - CRAMER'S CALL: ANOTHER RALLY TOP INDICATOR Greg Feirman Wow, the bulls are really feeling good. “Wells Fargo Carries The Day” and the S&P and Dow closed at 2 months high and the Nasdaq is near its highs for the year. On Mad Money this evening, Cramer went so far as to call “a turn in the economy”, saying “the facts have changed”, “the situation has clearly improved” and “things are getting better”. This isn’t the first time Cramer has called a bottom and he’s been wrong before (For example, see “Cramer Declares The End Of The Bear Market” , Top Gun FP, July 31, 2008). The market topped out a couple weeks later. On Monday October 6, Cramer went on the today show and told people to sell any stock money they might need in the next five years. The market bottomed that Friday. It could run another couple weeks but this rally is running thin. Methinks me smells a top….. Rational View Courtesy of ETF.COM: ‘…Due to our expectations of continued weakness in the financial sector, the looming deterioration of commercial real estate, the credit markets tepid backing of the equity rally, and the still very shaky and highly volatile global economy, it's our view at ETFdesk.com the recent run-up in stocks is unwarranted and presents an overly optimistic view of the months ahead. We believe investors should consider taking short term profits or use the recent run to reduce equity exposure they are weary of. We also believe investment grade debt (NYSEArca: LQD - News) represents an opportunity for investors seeking beaten down prices without the downside volatility of equities…’ The Great Geithner Coverup China Slows Purchases of U.S. and Other Bonds Goldman Sachs hires law firm to shut blogger’s site for pointing to truth about the fraud firm e Singapore economy shrinks sharply more than expected WELLS FARGO 'May Need $50 Billion to Pay Feds, Cover Loan Losses'... Reporters threatened with arrest for filming private Federal Reserve building SURGE IN DELINQUENT TAXPAYERS; WASHINGTON VOWS SYMPATHY Warren Buffett's electric car venture; CEO drinks 'battery fluid'... Goldman Sachs mulls dilutive worthless stock sale to repay TARP money with other TARP money: now you know where the fed trillions in part are going: report GOLDMAN SACHS announces $5B public stock offering, reports $1.8B quarterly profit... Bailed-Out Banks Face Probe over Fees: Report You Know Things Are Bad When Even Newsweek Is Slamming the Obama Administration for Caving in to the Financial Status Quo Secretary of Labor Reich: Unemployment Numbers Show We’re Already In a Depression Fed sees economy sliding further A Bear in Bull's Clothing: Why This Rally Will Fall Short World Economy Falling Faster Than in 1929-1930 The Geithner-Summers Plan is Even Worse Than Thought Author who predicted crisis sees hyperinflation ahead
PREVIOUS (4-9-09), suckers’ bear market rally into the close on bad news and bull s**t alone so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! LATE-BREAKING BULL S**T STORY FOISTED AS B.S. TALKING POINT FOR CONTINUING FRAUD/SPIKE IN STOCK PRICES FOR COMMISSIONING: WELLS FARGO RECEIVES $25 BILLION TAXPAYER MONEY/BAILOUT FUNDS AND SHOWS (RECORD FOR THEM?) $3 BILLION QUARTERLY PROFIT - DO THE MATH (FIRST GRADE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL KIDS COULD DO AS WELL, AND FOR FAR LESS PAY) - AT THAT RATE, TAXPAYERS WILL SOON HAVE NOTHING LEFT FOR THEM TO TAX! WHAT FRAUDS! WHAT TOTAL BULL S**T! U.S. Treasury asking banks keep quiet on stress tests New unemployment claims at high 654,000 praised as positive number…riiiiight!…as continuing unemployment claims at record 5.84 million (real numbers even worse). Economy so bad that consumers can’t buy goods so trade deficit shrank but this is a structural defect in u.s. economy so not good news and consistent with bad news of still plunging retail sector. Najarian points out that wall street always a circus, consolidation, robbing peter to pay paul, take profits; while economist cite Reich that we’re in depression and government as in land of fruits and nuts out of control. Earnings revised downward for first quarter –36.5%, more weakness, more unemployment, inflation to come on fast says Hogan, and insurance companies now que up at corporate welfare/taxpayer bailout lines. In positing (suckers’) bear market rally and advocating hold cash/sell stocks Hillary Kramer points to the preposterous on wall street where bad news greated as good vis-ŕ-vis stocks (they call what wall street does ‘fraud’…in a rational world where they would already be in jail). Rational View Courtesy of ETF.COM: ‘…Due to our expectations of continued weakness in the financial sector, the looming deterioration of commercial real estate, the credit markets tepid backing of the equity rally, and the still very shaky and highly volatile global economy, it's our view at ETFdesk.com the recent run-up in stocks is unwarranted and presents an overly optimistic view of the months ahead. We believe investors should consider taking short term profits or use the recent run to reduce equity exposure they are weary of. We also believe investment grade debt (NYSEArca: LQD - News) represents an opportunity for investors seeking beaten down prices without the downside volatility of equities…’ Secretary of Labor Reich: Unemployment Numbers Show We’re Already In a Depression Fed sees economy sliding further A Bear in Bull's Clothing: Why This Rally Will Fall Short World Economy Falling Faster Than in 1929-1930 The Geithner-Summers Plan is Even Worse Than Thought Market bear Roubini sticks to dour forecasts U.S. Treasury asking banks keep quiet on stress tests Boeing warns on Q1 profit, to cut plane output Wall Street sets 5th weekly gain on banks, Boeing off late U.S. Squeezes Auto Creditors (at The Wall Street Journal Online) Nikkei comes off 9,000, as banks hit by SMFG news Obama seeks $83.4 billion more in 2009 war funds Bank of Japan likely to cut economic outlook in next report Author who predicted crisis sees hyperinflation ahead
PREVIOUS (4-8-09), suckers’ bear market rally into the close on worse than expected bad news and bull s**t alone so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! LATE-BREAKING BULL S**T STORY FOR B.S. TALKING POINT FOR CONTINUING FRAUD/SPIKE IN STOCK PRICES FOR COMMISSIONING: WELLS FARGO RECEIVES $25 BILLION TAXPAYER MONEY/BAILOUT FUNDS AND SHOWS (RECORD FOR THEM?) $3 BILLION QUARTERLY PROFIT - DO THE MATH (FIRST GRADE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL KIDS COULD DO AS WELL, AND FOR FAR LESS PAY) - AT THAT RATE, TAXPAYERS WILL SOON HAVE NOTHING LEFT TO TAX! WHAT FRAUDS! WHAT TOTAL BULL S**T! Earnings revised downward for first quarter –36.5%, more weakness, more unemployment, inflation to come on fast says Hogan, and insurance companies now que up at corporate welfare/taxpayer bailout lines. In positing (suckers’) bear market rally and advocating hold cash/sell stocks Hillary Kramer points to the preposterous on wall street where bad news greated as good vis-ŕ-vis stocks (they call what wall street does ‘fraud’…in a rational world where they would already be in jail). Rational View Courtesy of ETF.COM: ‘…Due to our expectations of continued weakness in the financial sector, the looming deterioration of commercial real estate, the credit markets tepid backing of the equity rally, and the still very shaky and highly volatile global economy, it's our view at ETFdesk.com the recent run-up in stocks is unwarranted and presents an overly optimistic view of the months ahead. We believe investors should consider taking short term profits or use the recent run to reduce equity exposure they are weary of. We also believe investment grade debt (NYSEArca: LQD - News) represents an opportunity for investors seeking beaten down prices without the downside volatility of equities…’ Secretary of Labor Reich: Unemployment Numbers Show We’re Already In a Depression Fed sees economy sliding further A Bear in Bull's Clothing: Why This Rally Will Fall Short World Economy Falling Faster Than in 1929-1930 [$$] Little Optimism From FOMC Fed sees no economic recovery until next year and then next year and year after that and next year Moody's strips Berkshire Hathaway of top rating Danger lurks behind banks' results Reality of worsening depression drove Fed action [$$] Morgan Stanley to Post a Loss From Volatile, Complex Bonds (at The Wall Street Journal Online) Bank Earnings Will Be Hit by Consumer Woes (at TheStreet.com) Financial Crisis ‘Far From Over,’ Panel Says A Bear in Bull's Clothing: Why This Rally Will Fall Short The Geithner-Summers Plan is Even Worse Than Thought SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
PREVIOUS (4-6-09), suckers’ bear market rally into the close to finish off lows on bad news and bull s**t alone (ie., real bad numbers though favorably fudged greeted with reiteration ‘better than expected’, etc…riiiiight!), so still great opportunity to SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! Respected banking analyst Mayo brought the lunatic frauds on wall street back to earth predicting bank loan losses will exceed those of the Great Depression. Mayo Says Loan Losses Will Exceed Depression Levels... ‘Despite the absence of positive catalysts in afternoon trading, stocks were able to pare their losses. The stock market had been down as much as 2.3%, but was able to more than cut that loss in half. Financial Stocks Have Run Up Too Hard, Too Fast (at Seeking Alpha) Slow down: We're Not at the Bottom Yet U.S. deficit nearly $1 trillion in first half of FY2009 Americans Feel 15.6% Unemployment as Unemployment Surges SOROS SEES END OF DOLLAR AS WORLD CURRENCY... GM Speeds Up Bankruptcy Preparations... Bernanke ‘Green Shoots’ Signals False Spring Amid Job Losses Bush and Obama Administrations Both Broke Law By Refusing to Close Insolvent Banks Murdoch: Long-Term Economic Situation ‘Dangerous’; Recovery 2-3 Years Away Massive Checkpoint Operation in Tennessee Violated Posse Comitatus, Fourth Amendment Hundreds of Thousands of Unemployed Run Out of Benefits Larry Summers, Tiny Tim Geithner and Wall Street’s ownership of government ‘ Mayo Says Loan Losses Will Exceed Depression Levels... Obama Economic Advisors Linked to Bankers
PREVIOUS (4-3-09), suckers’ bear market rally continues on bad news and bull s**t alone (ie., real bad numbers though favorably fudged greeted with reiteration ‘better than expected’, etc…riiiiight!), so still great opportunity to SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! 5.1 million jobs lost, -663,000 in past month, unemployment rate jumps to 8.5% and 15% for underemployed/part time (I’m sure these data understate the far worse reality according to some who say 15% and 20+% respectively), credit card problems/defaults to worsen according to analyst, even service sector down, and providing insult to injury/damage Goldman, et als using taxpayer funds for toxic assets (the real boondoggle is the complicit multi-trillion dollar fraud concerning taxpayer funds to bailout/coverup massive securities law violations/crimes for which prosecution/disgorgement of gains should have already begun). Outrageous and preposterous! U.S. jobless rate hits 25-year high Lawmaker sees Fannie, Freddie bonus "insult" NYC protesters ask US to 'bail out the people' (AP) Soros: Global Depression Ahead Buchanan: We Should Kill the Fed One in 10 Americans gets help to buy food Ex-AIG chief: Bailout will not succeed Unemployment in U.S. Climbed in March to 25-Year High G-20 Shapes New World Order With Wisely Lesser Role for u.s., u.s. Markets -663,000: Unemployment Rate Reaches 25-Year High of 8.5%... 1 in every 10 Americans receive food stamps...
Buchanan: We Should Kill the Fed Patrick J. Buchanan | Hoover did what Obama is doing.
PREVIOUS (4-2-09), suckers’ bear market rally based upon decisively bad news (26 Year High as New US jobless claims hit 669,000 in week , except for fake government reports by corrupt scandal-scarred commerce department on manufacturing/index up 1.8% though almost all private forecasts saw decline, etc.), in addition to funny money the frauds on wall street applauded the funny assets courtesy of f.a.s.b. (there are no accounting standards in the u.s.), which makes for wall street style securities fraud as now and in the past (fed also pumped in another $23 billion in last 3 days to fuel same, despite earnings going down and stock prices soaring with stratospherically high p/e ratios). Analyst/fund manager Najarian ‘taking a lot off the table’ (selling), while Analyst/fund manager Farr/Miller who called this bear market rally see’s test of the lows, so if you don’t celebrate All Fools’ Day (you’re not a fool) you’ll continue to SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! New US jobless claims hit 669,000 in week WASHPOST: Before Crisis, Geithner Fell Short; He regulated banks... Outstanding Credit Default Swaps Down to “Only” About Twice America’s GDP Layoffs rise despite hope recession is easing (AP) G-20 to give $1 trillion to IMF, World Bank UN chief says crisis could result in failed states Tax dodgers multiply as underground economy cushions job cuts The Wall Street Journal Criticizes Capitol Hill Bonuses (and don’t forget the raises) (at Seeking Alpha) Inflationary Depression Dr. Marc Faber runs his own business, Marc Faber Limited, which acts as an investment advisor and fund manager. He publishes a widely read monthly investment newsletters The Gloom Boom & Doom report which highlights unusual investment opportunities, and is the author of several books including Tomorrow’s Gold – Asia’s Age of Discovery which was first published in 2002 and highlights future investment opportunities around the world.
PREVIOUS (4-1-09), suckers’ bear market rally into the close with 250 point swing to the upside based on decisively bad news and bull s**t alone, viz., better than dismal expectations…I don’t think so! …That dog don’t hunt no more…remember the last market burn and that similar refrain among others, and the ever indecipherable to most, that infamous tech sector will save us (bust)…riiiiight! Oh wait, I get it. April Fools Day, as in ‘fool you once, shame on them, fool you twice, thrice, etc., …shame on you’. How ‘bout all fools day. U.S. private sector axes 742,000 jobs in March March auto sales plunge... U.S. seen facing danger of 2nd recession next year or stated another more realistic way, the depression though flush with ever more worthless weimar dollars providing ephemeral b.s. talking points of happy days are here again will be exacerbated thereby and continue with a vengeance r So, SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
AIG crisis could be the tip of an insurance iceberg U.S. Spending 100% of GDP on Bailouts and Related Programs Watchdogs: Treasury won't disclose bank bailout details.(I think it’s obvious they’re covering up the substantial securities fraud, using taxpayer money to do so, as yet there’s not even one prosecution which makes the government complicit, after the fact, in consummating the fraud) ... U.S. private sector axes 742,000 jobs in March March auto sales plunge... U.S. seen facing danger of 2nd recession next year or stated another more realistic way, the depression though flush with ever more worthless weimar dollars providing ephemeral b.s. talking points of happy days are here again will be exacerbated thereby and continue with a vengeance r Financial Rescue Nears GDP as Pledges Top $12.8 Trillion U.S. auto sales plunge, but bottom not yet near "Hurt, Frightened and Very Angry:" Risk of Social Unrest Rising, Says FT's Martin Wolf [$$] Accounting Rules Should Avoid Impairment (at The Wall Street Journal Online) Nightmare on Wall Street Destination Collapse Foreclosure Crisis Hits Warp Speed: 6 Million Families Face Losing Their Homes in the Next Three Years
PREVIOUS (3-31-09), suckers’ bear market rally continues to keep suckers suckered and commission dollars flowing by window-dressing this past month (and quarter) with gains based on bad news and hence bull s**t alone so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! Global Meltdown, Part III $$] It's Only Window-Dressing Why This Is Just Another Bear Market Rally All news decisively negative with prospectively negative implications as the jawboners/frauds talk up that ever elusive bottom for stocks/real estate despite reality indicating otherwise [have you noticed the wide divergence of private reports (though somewhat skewed to the upside because of flawed/fake data they must rely upon from the government) as opposed to false government reports]. Confidence near historically record lows and Case/Shiller index showing declining real estate values (-19.4%) Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Fell by a Record 19% with declines at highest rate on record Global Meltdown, Part III $$] It's Only Window-Dressing Why This Is Just Another Bear Market Rally An Autopsy of the Glass-Steagall Act U.S. Spending 100% of GDP on Bailouts and Related Programs TARP Watchdog: “We Do Not Seem To Be A Priority For The Treasury Department” NEWS BROKE: SUN-TIMES Files For Bankruptcy, Both Major Chicago Dailies Now In Chapter 11... Ontario, CA, Tent City Residents Required to Wear Wristbands Government website now offers ’suicide warning signs’ for victims of recession .
PREVIOUS (3-30-09), Art Hogan recently summed up choosing stocks in this environment thusly: ‘pick the best-looking horse at the glue factory’…..I think he was as a courtesy to his industry overly generous. The administration pitches hardballs to the auto industry while continuing to pitch powder puffs to the wall street frauds who have perpetrated the largest (securities) fraud in recorded history, turning a cyclical downturn into what is now unavoidably depression, putting beleagered taxpayers in the unfathomable position of funders/guarantors of the scam/fraud in bailing out the perpetrators of the crimes (bush’s infamous base) who have financially benefited enormously (fees, commissions, spreads, points, salaries, expenses, bonuses, etc.) from their fraud/crimes. Still not even one prosecution from this administration even though disgorgement, the legal remedy among other criminal penalties, would aid the defacto bankrupt u.s. treasury! Obama's tough auto stance may include bankruptcy Wall Street hits the brakes on autos, bank woes Workers say Obama treated autos worse than Wall St (AP) UBS shares fall as writedowns, job cuts expected (AP) Obama puts GM, Chrysler on short leash Stocks fall as automaker plans are rejected Russia backs return to Gold Standard to solve financial crisis Looting by U.S. Government at All-Time Highs White House to let Chrysler fail US Banks Operate Without Reserve Requirements GM, Peugeot CEOs forced out as auto woes deepen Geithner won't say if more bailout money needed AIG delays funds to some real-estate ventures: report Asian stocks tumble on auto, bank concerns (AP) UBS shares fall as more writedowns, job cuts seen (Reuters) GM, Chrysler have no 'viable' plans: US task force Pension insurer shifted to stocks to froth the fraudulent market Boston Globe | Just months before the start of last year’s stock market collapse, the federal agency that insures the retirement funds of 44 million Americans departed from its conservative investment strategy and decided to put much of its $64 billion insurance fund into stocks to froth the frudulent market at behest of frauds on wall street.
PREVIOUS (3-27-09), very modest losses
relative to reality so SELL/SELL
INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME! Sugar coated
though still bad numbers, usual suspects/concerns cited, ie., bankruptcies on
rise, omni 22nd bank to fail this year, printing hyperinflationary funny money
like mad, etc. (don’t forget, as now, in 2008 they predicted improvement in
second half and no recession though we now know we were already in recession
and now depression). Nobel Laureate Dr. Joseph Stiglitz
Says “The Geithner Plan Amounts To Robbery Of The American People” Ninth Georgia bank collapses (at
Atlanta Journal Constitution - 22nd this year) Economy shrinks most in 25 years; Unemployment continues climb
Roubini Says Stocks Will Drop, Government Will
Nationalize More Banks... Ron Paul Predicts 15-year Depression
The Credit Bust Is Not Almost Over (at
Seeking Alpha) Top bank regulator placed on leave
pending review (AP) PAPER: Rahm Emanuel's Short FREDDIE MAC stay
made him $320,000+... On PPIP and Geithner's Latest Power Grab
(Linkfest) (at Seeking Alpha) Will SDRs Become World’s Reserve Currency? UN PANEL TOUTS NEW GLOBAL CURRENCY... Rep. to Geithner: Your Plan Is
'Radical'... The Bubble That Must Burst
PREVIOUS (3-26-09), all news decisively bad, viz., continuing unemployment claims at new record high 5.56 million, new unemployment claims at very bad 653,000, economic contraction a worse than previously reported –6.3%, corporate profits down and at worst levels in decades, J.D. Power and Associates reports auto sales decline of a whopping –40%, Economy shrinks most in 25 years; Unemployment continues climb Roubini Says Stocks Will Drop, Government Will Nationalize More Banks... Ron Paul Predicts 15-year Depression , yet suckers’ bear market rally to keep those suckers suckered so take this folly as a great opportunity to SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! The Credit Bust Is Not Almost Over (at Seeking Alpha) Top bank regulator placed on leave pending review (AP) PAPER: Rahm Emanuel's Short FREDDIE MAC stay made him $320,000+... On PPIP and Geithner's Latest Power Grab (Linkfest) (at Seeking Alpha) Will SDRs Become World’s Reserve Currency? UN PANEL TOUTS NEW GLOBAL CURRENCY... Rep. to Geithner: Your Plan Is 'Radical'... The Bubble That Must Burst
PREVIOUS (3-25-09), The corrupt,
scandal-scarred commerce department notorious for institutionalized lying comes
out with numbers three times/300% better than private forecasts for now
into the third week in a row for such very forecastable data as used home
sales, new home sales, and durable goods (mostly government/military with funny
at that) in an attempt to froth that font of fraud called the american stock
market/wall street which is how this financial/economic crisis came to be, with
the parasitic churn-and-earn commisioning on the way up (and then down) based
on bull s**t alone. Still not one prosecution of that huge collateralized
securities fraud for which disgorgement would constitute substantial
contribution to treasury as opposed to the just announced diversion to small
potatoes (like madoff, which should be pursued but not a priority to the
multi-trillion dollar collateralized securities fraud, etc.), viz., the
sub-prime mortgage origination fraud (encouraged by actions of fed and
government), etc.. With 80% debt-to-GDP ratio, the u.s. is now the leader of
banana republic nations. Nobel Laureate Dr. Joseph Stiglitz
Says “The Geithner Plan Amounts To Robbery Of The American People” IBM to cut 5,000 jobs in U.S. Wall St. rallies late as data offsets
bond sale gloom [$$] Government-Debt Auctions Disappoint as Demand
Subsides (at The Wall Street Journal Online)
Asian Shares Mostly Lower, Mkts
Overcooked; Nikkei Down 0.7% CDS ‘Godfather’ Says Blow ‘Em All Up’ Obama Denounces Global Currency While
Creating The Very Means For Its Introduction Code Pink and Barney’s Bailout
Circus One Small Problem With Geithner’s
Plan: It Will Bankrupt The Banks White House to Hunt for New Tax Revenues Bank Of England warns Gordon Brown to stop the spending U.K. Bond Auction Fails for First Time
Since 2002 Obama’s Economic Plan a “Road to
Hell” Associated Press | The president of the European Union
on Wednesday slammed U.S. plans to spend its way out of recession as “a road to
hell.”
PREVIOUS (3-24-09): Modest losses relative to an increasingly grim
reality so SELL/SELL
INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
ETF Death Watch: Why Are Funds Closing? The financial
crisis isn’t just
shrinking portfolios and profits. It’s also putting exchange-traded funds and notes out of business. According
to State Street, 58 exchange-traded products closed last year and another 30 or
so from companies like SPA, Credit Suisse and Northern Trust have stopped trading the last three months. With
more on the way, the liquidation process is shaping up to be a prominent trend
for investors to watch in 2009.
Geithner Plan Will Rob US Taxpayers: Stiglitz The
U.S. government plan to rid banks of toxic assets will rob American taxpayers
by exposing them to too much risk and is unlikely to work as long as the
economy remains weak, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said on
Tuesday.
Geithner Grilled on Goldman Sachs Connections David Edwards | Geithner told Waters that Goldman
Sachs could help manage the new program to help banks remove toxic assets from
their books. Haven’t goldman and
goldman people done enough damage? Their abilities and competence are
vastly overrated and overstated. Be Gentle with the Bankers? No, Indict Them for Fraud/High
Treason
U.S. woos investors to buy toxic assets Falling Japan land prices stir deflation worries China Telecom's annual profit plunges 96% on write-down Japan automakers' sales tumble in February China Urges New Money Reserve to Replace Dollar The Fed Did Indeed Cause the Housing Bubble China Voices Support For New Global Currency To Replace Dollar
US unveils public-private plan for toxic assets
Donating for dollars? Many bailed-out banks still contributing to campaign funds The federal bank bailouts may be giving new meaning to the term “kickback.” JPMorgan Chase To Spend Millions on New Jets and Luxury Airport Hangar YouTube Caught Censoring Obama Deception Video The Fed Did Indeed Cause the Housing Bubble
What the Pros Say: US Is Now ‘Bankrupt’ US Federal Reserve announces massive increase in government debt U.S. Budget Office offers darker economic and deficit outlook [$$] Market Overbought and Overbelieved Auditors project deeper deficits for Obama budget Rothschild: Economic crisis will leave governments with “enormous public debt” The Fed Did It, and Greenspan Should Admit It
Launching Lifeboats Before the Ship Sinks Paul Craig Roberts | If the US government is forced to print money to cover the high costs of its wars and bailouts, things could fall apart very quickly.
US Federal Reserve announces massive increase in government debt Barry Grey | The essence of all of the measures taken in response to the crisis is an effort to rescue the system and protect the wealth and power of the financial elite at the expense of the broad masses of the population.
Tax Time Covert Ops Catherine Austin Fitts | Hate. Divide and conquer. It’s a business. The media is pushing it. The people directing it are the same people who brought you the AIG bonuses.
PREVIOUS
(3-23-09): So preposterous was today’s Pavlov dogs rally
[conditioning to associate what’s good for fraudulent wall street, viz.,
privatizing profits – still not one prosecution for what now is the largest
fraud/scam/swindle in the history of this planet – and socializing the losses,
is somehow positive for america/the economy by the magnitude of this suckers’
bear market rally and prior market manipulations] when the same created the
instant crisis in the first instance (don’t worry about the frauds on wall
street, they’ll get their commissions again on the way down as they did in
creating this financial debacle/fraud as they clamor for more taxpayer/treasury
money). They’re still printing/creating those worthless Weimar dollars
like mad, China Urges New Money Reserve to Replace Dollar ,don’t know
what they’re doing, are clueless, and disingenuously seek to divert attention
from the missing/stolen/bilked $14 trillion of taxpayer money with the
subterfuge of outrage over the relatively miniscule though not unimportant
million dollar bonuses (AIG, etc.), so-called fixes/plans, etc., so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE
PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! What the Pros Say: US Is Now ‘Bankrupt’ US is Already Bankrupt: Analyst
U.S. Budget Office offers darker economic and deficit
outlook The Geithner-Summers-Bernanke Plan
to Prop Up Asset Prices Has Failed U.N. panel says world should ditch dollar
Fierman:
How quickly things change…..
Some stats from today’s rally:
S&P: +54 (7.1%) to 823
Dow: +497 (+6.8%) to 7776
NYSE Up Volume: 1,866,836,012
NYSE Down Volume: 44,683,760
NYSE Total Volume: 1,914,836,622
It was just 2 weeks ago (March 9th) that the S&P closed at 12-year lows and
the stock market felt like it was forecasting the end of the world. We’ve now
rallied 22% in 2 weeks! But if we look at the catalysts for this rally, they
really don’t seem to justify such an explosive move. Citi said they were profitable in
the first two months of the year and JP Morgan (JPM)
and Bank of America (BAC) said they were too. The Fed initiated some serious quantitative easing.
And now Geithner’s toxic asset plan this morning. I agree with the Capital
Spectator when he wrote this morning:
We’re skeptical largely because the rally this month has drawn power primarily from a new round of hope that Washington’s various experiments to right the economy will finally hit pay dirt. Perhaps, but it’s not the stuff that powers sustainable rallies, much less secular bull markets.
I’M
A SELLER OF THIS RALLY AT THIS POINT…..
PREVIOUS (3-20-09), Modest losses relative to reality and their
printing those worthless Weimar dollars like mad, don’t know what they’re
doing, are clueless, and disingenuously seek to divert attention from the
missing/stolen/bilked $14 trillion of taxpayer money with the subterfuge of
outrage over the relatively miniscule though not unimportant million dollar
bonuses (AIG, etc.) so SELL/SELL
INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME! What the Pros Say: US Is Now ‘Bankrupt’ US is Already Bankrupt: Analyst
U.S. Budget Office offers darker economic and deficit
outlook The Geithner-Summers-Bernanke Plan
to Prop Up Asset Prices Has Failed U.N. panel says world should ditch dollar
PREVIOUS (3-19-09), ‘…Economic news remains uninspiring. Weekly initial claims dipped 12,000 to 646,000, which was better than the consensus estimate of 655,000. Continuing claims hit another record high, though, jumping to 5.47 million from 5.29 million. Leading indicators for February showed a 0.4% decline, which wasn't as bad as the 0.6% decline that was expected… Energy stocks (+1.4%) and materials stocks (+1.4%) were helped by stronger commodity prices. The CRB Commodity Index climbed more than 5% in this year's largest single-session advance by percent. Crude oil futures prices gained 6.5% to close pit trading at $51.25 per barrel, while gold prices advanced 7.8% to close at $958.50 per ounce. Underpinning the strength in commodity prices was a considerably weaker U.S. dollar. According to the Dollar Index, the greenback sank 1.7% this session, and more than 4% during the last two sessions. The dollar's weakness follows the Fed's latest policy directive…’
US is Already Bankrupt: Analyst
The Geithner-Summers-Bernanke Plan
to Prop Up Asset Prices Has Failed U.N. panel says world should ditch
dollar Corporate
Media Disses Gold Citigroup May Spend $10 Million
for Executive Suite It’s Not Just AIG: Fannie Plans
Exec Bonuses Gold Re-Couples with Euro, “Dollar
Getting Destroyed” House passes tax to recoup most of AIG bonuses ($200
million); what about the $14 trillion in fraudulent bailouts and the missing $4
trillion at the New York fed… s Bank of America involved in Merrill Q4
writedowns: report Put/Call Ratio Indicates Overbought
Market Condition SUPER PUMP: $1 TRILLION
CREATED OUT OF THIN AIR... Oil Nears $52;
Hits high for 2009...
PREVIOUS
(3-18-09), absolute desperation by the fed as fed in panic mode
buys bonds with even more fake money (ultimately you pay). Shot in the dark,
they unequivocally do not know what they’re doing; don’t have even the
slightest clue. Some well deserved guilt as greenspan, bernanke, paulson,
geithner, etc., are authors of this debacle with compliant politics as usual
facilitating same (wall street/hedge fund gamblers shouldn’t be bailed out,
etc.), but the divergence of so-called opinion from stagflation to applauding
same in light of fraudulent stock market up-tick (isn’t that how we got here,
to this financial/economic disaster).
Depression Unrest Turmoil
Instability Riots all coming and SOON As depression deepens, more americans
go fishing (Reuters) It’s Not Just AIG: Fannie Plans Exec Bonuses Stimulus plan: Spend now, details
later (promise) Dollar Plunges After Fed
Announcement Senate quietly stripped measure
restricting bonuses from bailout legislation Hedge funds could reap billions from AIG which should
not reward soured bets/gambles with taxpayer funds as now slated. Citi, Morgan Stanley Looking to Issue More Diluting Shares for Bonus
Payments (at Seeking Alpha)
Editorials: Rewards instead of punishments
PREVIOUS (3-17-09), all private forecasts of the very forecastable housing starts defied the false report of the corrupt, scandal-scarred commerce department (remember the fake reports that spurred recent ralleys which ultimately burned the buyers) spurred suckers’ bear market ralley so great opportunity to SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
Dent,
Napier, and Prechter - Wise to Heed Their Predictions Is Mistrust in Wall Street Pointing to New Lows? RECORD: NATIONAL DEBT HITS $11 TRILLION... The Size of Derivatives Bubble =
$190K Per Person on Planet Washington knew AIG was preparing to pay
bonuses (AP) U.S. to claw back AIG bonuses,
lawmakers eye tax House committee scrutinizes Merrill
bonuses Bad year or good, fraud or just preparing
for fraud with wall street, AIG employees got big bonuses (AP)
Paulson Was Behind Bailout Martial Law Threat Fed Hides Destination Of $2 Trillion In Bailout Money World Bank cuts China GDP estimate
again, to 6.5% Obama Confronts “Populist Anger” Over Bankster Giveaways IMF poised to print billions of
dollars Jim Rogers Expects Civil Unrest in the US and all around the
World
PREVIOUS 3-16-09, Very modest losses relative to reality so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE
PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! ‘…February industrial production declined 1.4%, which is
essentially in-line with the consensus 1.3% decline. Capacity utilization dipped
to 70.9% from 71.9%, as generally expected. The February report continues to
reflect a weak demand environment that will ultimately drag on GDP...’’… The nation's industrial output fell
for the fourth straight month in February, with factories operating at their
lowest level in six decades of record keeping. Analysts forecast more
production cuts to come as companies are battered by recessions at home and
abroad. The Federal Reserve reported Monday that industrial output dropped by
1.4 percent last month, slightly larger than the 1.2 percent decline economists
had expected. The weakness included a 0.7 percent fall in manufacturing output,
which pushed the operating rate at the nation's factories down to 67.4 percent
of capacity last month, the lowest level on records that go back to 1948…’
Treasury to rework AIG aid to recoup bonuses AIG massive payments to banks stoke bailout rage Hearst prints final Seattle PI Hearst hopes Web-only Seattle P-I will turn profit AIG Bonuses Add to Reality of Public Revolt against Wall Street, Federal Reserve Bracing for a Bailout Backlash Dollar Crisis In The Making Think recession’s bad? Try a cataclysm! Insurance giant AIG to pay $165 million in bonuses (AP) AP - American International Group is giving its executives tens of millions of dollars in new bonuses even though it received a taxpayer bailout of more than $170 billion dollars. AIG plans to disclose CDS counterparties: source Chrysler faces July cash crunch even with more aid Accounting Rule Changes Creating False Rally in Financials (at Seeking Alpha) Cash-hungry U.S. states turn to Web to auction goods Bernanke: recession could end in '09 and if his grandmother had wheels she could be a trolley car and as he previously said we could avoid recession though we were already in one which is now a depression with worse yet to come and most assuredly will not end in 2009 except in the b.s. talking points in their dreams (AP) Millions in AIG bonuses draw chorus of outrage (AP) AIG payments to banks stoke bailout rage White House says economy is sound despite 'mess’ or stated another way, a sound mess…..riiiiight!'
AIG Bonuses Add to Reality of Public Revolt against Wall
Street, Federal Reserve Mike Adams | People will be marching in the
streets, demanding the arrest of all the rich executives and corrupt
bureaucrats who took part in this massive financial theft.
PREVIOUS 3-13-09, Suckers’ bear market rally ( Citigroup Inspired Bear Market Suckers’ Rally ) to keep the suckers suckered and commission dollars flowing to the frauds on wall street Regulator: Before Banks Collapsed, They Pleaded With Feds To Let Them Fudge Their Books Ryan Grim | Before financial institutions collapsed, they went to the Financial Accounting Standards Board, pleading for a change in mark-to-market accounting rules so that they can continue to appear to be solvent on their balance sheets and hence, continue to defraud the public as they are now once again trying to do. Unemployment in 7 States Has Exceeded 20% in February China Debates If It Should Continue to Foolish Buy Evermore Worthless U.S. Treasuries America faces new Depression misery as financial crisis worsens Tent Cities, Unemployment, Homelessness Growing Dmitry Orlov: “America will collapse” Warren Buffett's BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY stripped of its 'AAA' credit rating... THE INFLUENCE/BRIBE/PROTECTION RACKET: New record for number of PACs
PREVIOUS
(3-12-09), the waning full moon still compounding the frivolity of
the criminally insane; particularly the lunatic frauds on wall street, and
truth be told, the lunatics who follow in lock-step behind them. Suckers’ bear
market rally ( Citigroup Inspired Bear Market Suckers’ Rally ) to keep the suckers
suckered and commission dollars flowing to the frauds on wall street so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE
PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! There are no bulls or bears on
fraudulent wall street, just ostriches. One senile land of fruits and nuts
analyst/ broker / master planner of the lost angeles failed paradigm quips with
glee: it’s impressive to see the market ignore so much bad news and
rally…riiiiight! Ron Paul, A Rare Voice of Reason on
Capital Hill: Culprits Of Financial Collapse Should Be Arrested, Prosecuted,
and Disgorgement Of Fraudulent Gains Would Inure to the Benefit of the
Technically/Defacto Insolvent/Bankrupt u.s. Treasury in the Multi-Trillions as
Recovered (Their
greed and fraud has further bankrupted this country and damaged other nations
and recoupment of their fraudulent gains must be required as the law already
provides since taxpayers are bearing the brunt of government inaction. What
they did is not ok. They must pay. This is not difficult to grasp and must be
done or there is no hope prospectively for america since all will know of this
government fostered/complicit fraud). ‘…Better-than-expected (but typically fake as per scandal
scarred commerce department) retail sales data suggested consumers haven't
completely rolled over. February retail sales declined just 0.1%, which is
better than the 0.5% decline that was expected. Excluding autos, retail sales
increased 0.7%. A decline of 0.1% was expected. Meanwhile, January total sales
and sales less autos were revised to show an even larger increase. The upbeat
retail sales data comes in the face of ongoing consumer headwinds, such as
mounting job losses. Weekly initial claims climbed 9,000 to 654,000, which was
worse than expected. Continuing claims jumped nearly 200,000 to 5.32 million,
which was also worse than expected (new record). In other economic news,
February business inventories declined 1.1%, which is essentially in-line with
the consensus estimate...’
’…This week's rally
got an extra dose of adrenaline after an accounting board told Congress
Thursday it may recommend (more fraud as we’re currently experiencing by way of
) a let-up in financial reporting rules for troubled banks in three weeks… Fed
reports record fall in household net worth WASHINGTON (AP) -- The net worth of
American households fell by the largest amount in more than a half-century of
record keeping during the fourth quarter of last year…The Federal Reserve said
Thursday that household net worth dropped by a record 9 percent from the level
in the third quarter. The decline was the sixth straight quarterly drop in net
worth and underscored the battering that U.S. families are undergoing in the
midst of a steep recession with unemployment surging and the value of their
homes and investments plunging. Net worth represents total assets such as homes
and checking accounts minus liabilities like mortgages and credit card debt.
Jobless claims rise as retail sales slip WASHINGTON (AP) -- With layoffs
spreading, the number of initial claims for jobless benefits rose last week,
while the total number of people continuing to receive benefits set a record
high, the government said Thursday. The Labor Department reported that
first-time requests for unemployment insurance rose to 654,000 from the
previous week's upwardly revised figure of 645,000, above analysts'
expectations. The number of people receiving benefits for more than a week
increased by 193,000 to 5.3 million, the most on records dating back to 1967.
That's the sixth time in the past seven weeks that the jobless claims rolls
have set a record high…’
Ron Paul, A Rare Voice of Reason on Capital Hill: Culprits Of Financial Collapse Should Be Arrested, Prosecuted, and Forced Disgorgement Of Fraudulent Gains Would Inure to the Benefit of the Technically/Defacto Insolvent/Bankrupt u.s. Treasury in the Multi-Trillions as Recovered - Compared to them, madoff was a mere piker Citigroup Inspired Bear Market Suckers’ Rally Unemployment in 7 States May Have Exceeded 20% in February 45 percent of world’s wealth destroyed: Blackstone CEO Madoff jailed after pleading guilty to $50-65 billion fraud and telling court: ‘I am deeply sorry and ashamed of my crimes’ Newmont CEO sees gold in range of $1,200 House prices to drop another 55% and leave Britain bankrupt Madoff sent to jail as furious victims applaud (AP) Madoff pleads guilty, is jailed for $65 billion fraud Don't Sweat Hypernflation Just Yet: Deflation/Depression "In the Cards" for 2009 and Beyond, Shilling Says More on Roubini and Shiller's Dour Outlook Pelosi dodges chance to end automatic pay raises Ron Paul: Culprits Of Financial Collapse Should Be Arrested SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
PREVIOUS (3-11-09), Analyst chatter: Not through the worst of it, the worst (of depression) still ahead, investing in this market is like trying to catch a falling knife. Foreclosures up and spreading as unemployment also rises and will continue to rise. Freddy lost another $50 billion and wants another $31 billion, while Fanny lost another $60 billion and wants another $15 billion. Hillary Kramer says trading only, in-and-out, so if you can’t, don’t jump into market to try and catch the falling knife. Dividend cuts for 2009 have already surpassed that for all of 2008 at $46.8 billion.
53% of Americans (and Senator Specter) Think the U.S. Depression is Like the 1930’s This is a Depression! For Markets, What they call it does Not Matter Billionaire Stanford to take the 5th in fraud case (AP) Madoff mysteries remain as he nears guilty plea Merrill misled Congress on bonuses o Freddie Mac seeks $30.8B in US aid after 4Q loss Earnings Growth Estimates: The Bad, the Bad and the Ugly Japan's economy shrinks an annualized 12.1% in the fourth quarter Dell Cuts Staff Worldwide Last year REITs lost 38% - that's a bit worse than the S&P 500 Credit card delinquencies hit index record Thousands Line Up at Indiana Mall for Food Handouts The Fed Has Destroyed Your Retirement SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
PREVIOUS (3-10-09), yes, indeed, a rally with power of a speeding locomotive based on….. b.s. talk point with early release of CITI showing a profit [not counting more writedowns, bad/worthless assets(loans)/securities, expenses, etc.] of $8 billion with receipt of $45 billion (plus loans/guarantees/investments in excess of $100 billion) taxpayer bailout … WOW!…at this rate the treasury will deplete even faster than originally projected. But the math is so simple that elementary school kids with a handle on third grade arithmetic can accomplish the same and hence, can and should replace top management at a much lower price and without delay. ‘…bernanke says regulatory overhaul needed…WASHINGTON (AP) -- The nation's financial rule book must be rewritten to prevent a repeat of the global economic crisis now gripping the United States and other countries, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday…Bernanke offered new details on how to bolster mutual funds and a program that insures bank deposits. He also stressed the need for regulators to make sure financial companies have a sufficient capital cushion against potential losses…The Fed chief's remarks come as the Obama administration and Congress are crafting their overhaul strategies. For the administration, critical work will be carried out among global finance officials this weekend in London ahead of next month's meeting of leaders from the world's 20 major economic powers…Madoff's lawyer says client will plead guilty …NEW YORK (AP) -- In a courtroom surprise, it was revealed Tuesday that Bernard Madoff will plead guilty Thursday to securities fraud, perjury and other crimes, knowing that he could face up to 150 years in prison for one of the largest frauds in history…’ ‘…All three major indices registered fresh multiyear closing lows in the prior session, but came rallying back this session to log their best single-session performance by percent in months. The rebound came after Citigroup issued an encouraging update and reports indicated the uptick rule may be reinstated… Rep. Frank stated mark-to-market accounting rules must be improved, but Senator Shelby says any mark-to-market accounting changes should be made by the SEC. The SEC stated it will not seek to suspend such rules (since such would make valuations a fraud)... The stock market's advance was further helped by short-covering. Still, trading volume on the NYSE climbed above 2 billion shares…’
Cost to buy protection against U.S. government
default surges
Good News! Economist Sees GDP Down 7% in
Q1 and 9.25% Unemployment in 2010 Madoff faces life in prison on 11
criminal charges Citi's fake profit view, uptick talk
drive big rally Roubini: Depression Could Last beyond 36 Months; Dow at
5000...
United Tech to cut 11,600 jobs
Why Commodities Prices May Rise, Even In Deflation IMF warns of Great Depression, All
Nations at risk Oil at $50 Looms as OPEC Plans Cut, Keeps to Quota 53% Say It’s Likely the U.S. Will
Enter a Depression Similar to 1930’s even though we’re already in one worse
than the 1930’s Washington plans for big bank
failure SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL
CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
PREVIOUS (3-9-09), …‘Despite a rebound by
financial stocks and a batch of merger news, the stock market was unable to put
together a sustainable advance. Stocks finished with a broad-based loss, a bit
above session lows. Uncertainty in foreign indices fueled early losses in the
headline indices. Financials were the focal point of the weakness, falling to a
loss of 2.2%. The drop was short-lived, though. Financials rallied to a gain of
5.3%, but finished with a gain of 2.5%’… …’ Wall Street fell more
than 1 percent Monday as uneasiness about the economy eclipsed a bounce in
troubled financial stocks and news of a big drug company merger. Stocks rose in
the early going but turned lower in a now familiar pattern where short-lived
bursts of optimism give way to concerns about the country's economic woes’ (in
the real world they call that mental illness, lunacy –note the full moon, manic
depression/bipolar disorder, etc., or just plain fraudulent wall street )’
World Bank offers dire forecast for world economy Depression Dynamic Ensues as
Markets Revisit 1930s Global Financial Assets Lost $50
Trillion Last Year SEC says money manager invented big
accounts
Who got AIG's bailout billions?
‘The collapse of America is
unavoidable’ Regulators
seize seventh bank in Georgia... Kerry:
'Animal House' Party Days Are Over for u.s. government...
Bank stocks rally despite their insolvency
(AP) Too big to fail? 5 biggest banks
are 'dead men walking' (McClatchy Newspapers) [video] Next Dead Dividend (at
TheStreet.com)
Oil at $50 Looms as OPEC Plans
Cut, Keeps to Quota Too Big Has Failed: KC Fed Prez Says We Need
Temporary Nationalization (at Seeking Alpha)
World Bank says global economy will
shrink in 2009 (AP) Recession on track to be longest in
postwar period (AP) Cash In A Mattress? No, Gold In The Closet Paulson Was Behind Bailout Martial Law Threat Fed Hides Destination Of $2 Trillion In Bailout Money
PREVIOUS (3-6-09), fudged
in a manner most favorable to the frauds (we past these unemployment
percentages quite some time ago and they were much worse then and still worse
now, etc.), the news remains bleak and reality says even bleaker. Any economist who in discussing this depression mindlessly
compares this Greatest Depression to any other contraction without pointing out
crucial negative distinguishing characteristics; viz., insurmountable debt,
increasingly worthless (Weimar) currency, irrevocable and unrelenting
trade/budget deficits, global antipathy (stemming from illegal wars, war
crimes, massive securities fraud, etc.), lack of significant manufacturing base,
pervasive corruption/theft /plundering/incompetence, etc., cannot be considered
a serious economist (just a joker who probably missed the call on
recession/depression, etc.). …’Huge
layoffs push joblessness toward double digits WASHINGTON (AP) -- Tolling grimly
higher, the recession snatched more than 650,000 Americans' jobs for a record
third straight month in February as unemployment climbed to a quarter-century
peak of 8.1 percent and surged toward even more wrenching double digits.The
human carnage from the recession, well into its second year, now stands at 4.4
million lost jobs. Some 12.5 million people are searching for work -- more than
the population of the entire state of Pennsylvania. No one seems immune: The
jobless rate for college graduates has hit its highest point on record, just
like the rate for people lacking high school diplomas… GM shares reach 75-year
low amid bankruptcy talk…’ The
broader market turned in a modest gain, thanks to a late rally effort that
overcame steep losses. Initial gains were broad-based as participants began
buying in the wake of the February jobs report, which indicated nonfarm
payrolls fell 651,000, in-line with expectations, and unemployment climbed more
than expected to a 25-year high of 8.1%. Stocks were up as much as 2.4% in what
resembled past trends that saw stocks sell off leading up to the monthly jobs
report, but then rally in its wake as traders "bought the bad news."
Madoff expected to plead guilty to fraud charges How to Spot a Ponzi Con Artist? Follow the Yachts (Time.com) U.S. jobless rate hits 25-year high Goldman, others get AIG payouts: report US Bancorp CEO got pay package valued at $6.8M (AP) Huge layoffs push joblessness toward double digits AP source: Madoff guilty plea expected next week Stocks facing uphill battle; budget, retail sales loom $11 Trillion Wipeout: Wall Street's Year-and-a-Half of Dangerous Living Economy in 'Free-Fall': Unemployment Rate Surges to 8.1%, Highest in 25 Years GM shares reach 75-year low amid bankruptcy talk (AP) Fox Admits To Planting Political Brainwashing In Popular TV Shows Pelosi Backs Senate Facist Amendment to Censor Talk Radio Senate to Give FDIC up to $500 Billion Senator Bernie Sanders Slams Fed Boss Ben Bernanke Bailout Money - Instead of Being Used to Stabilize the Economy or Even the Bailed-Out Companies - is Just Going to Line the Pockets of the Wealthy Taxpayers Furious With Budget Cuts Take Frustration To Streets Of NYC AIG “Was Going to Bring Down Europe”: Lawmaker
PREVIOUS (3-5-09), Analyst/Economist Chatter: funny money (they’re printing worthless Weimar dollars like mad) and now they’re thinking funny assets (suspending reality based mark-to-market in favor of the failed fraudulent whatever they want so they can foist/spin/defraud which got us to this debacle); more bank takeovers; GM burning cash, bankruptcy probable; Merrill bonuses for jobs poorly done (my direct experience with Merril Lynch brokers was their total incompetence); higher taxes, higher inflation, $3 trillion new u.s. debt, dollar devaluation; more bank takeovers and far worse unemployment. “Few economists expect a turnaround in the battered labor market anytime soon with companies laying off thousands of workers weekly…Still, initial requests for unemployment benefits fell to 639,000 from the previous week's figure of 670,000, the Labor Department (fake number) said Thursday. Analysts expected a smaller drop to 650,000…Retailers report sales declines in February…GM concedes in the report filed Thursday that it's on the edge of bankruptcy and won't be able to avoid it unless it gets more government money and successfully executes a huge restructuring plan…Mortgage woes break records again in 4Q. NEW YORK (AP) -- A stunning 48 percent of the nation's homeowners who have a subprime, adjustable-rate mortgage are behind on their payments or in foreclosure, and the rate for homeowners with all mortgage types hit a new record, new data Thursday showed…” “The stock market logged new multiyear lows during the session, and closed at its worst level since the fourth quarter of 1996. Roughly 95% of the companies in the S&P 500 finished with a loss...Though losses were broad-based, financials were dealt the worst blow. The sector fell 9.9% with particular weakness among diversified banks (-16.5%) and other diversified financial services companies (-13.2%). Moody's announced it is reviewing the credit ratings of Bank of America (BAC 3.17, -0.42) and Wells Fargo (WFC 8.12, -1.54) for possible downgrade. Moody's lowered its outlook for JPMorgan Chase (JPM 16.60, -2.70) to negative from stable. Sellers pushed both WFC and JPM shares to new multiyear lows…Fourth quarter nonfarm productivity declined 0.4%, though it was expected to increase 1.2% after the prior reading showed a 3.2% increase. The lower reading was a result of lower economic output in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, fourth quarter unit labor costs increased 5.7%. Economists expected a 3.8% increase. Factory orders for January fell 1.9% (fake number), which is a less severe drop than the 3.5% decline that was widely expected. The drop in factory orders reflects the retrenchment by businesses in the wake of softer spending…” Now As The Much Greater Depression Progresses Dow and S&P hit 12-year lows Bernanke Arrogantly Refuses To Disclose Which Banks Took Money Treasury secretary's choice for deputy withdraws (only little people pay taxes so take this job and shove it says tiny tim deputy designate) (AP) 22 Georgia legislators fail to pay income taxes... GM auditors raise doubt on viability One in 8 U.S. homeowners late paying or in foreclosure Citigroup stock falls below $1 a share (AP) $$] SVG Swings to a Loss on Markdowns Hits (at The Wall Street Journal Online) Why the Fed's TALF Is Bad for America Mortgage woes break records again in 4Q (AP) Stocks Fall Below 7,000 Again Fed Refuses to Release Bank Data, Insists on Secrecy
PREVIOUS
(3-4-09), all news decisively worse than expected, fed beige book
outlook grim, economist outlook for recovery bleak. Celente: U.S. Has Entered “The Greatest Depression” The
spin: china bailout (the frauds on wall street spinning/foolishly banking on
china buying more worthless u.s. paper – their domestic needs are substantial
and they’re increasing military spending by 15% as well) and high oil price
suckers’ bear market/short-covering rally to again keep suckers sucked in for their
commissions sake. The great red hope! How preposterous! Who would have thunk
it! ‘…strong gains overseas provided an excuse
for buyers to enter the fold and short-sellers to cover their positions.
Foreign indices upended their own losing streak after China announced it will
add approximately $586 billion to the fiscal spending plan it announced late
last year… According to the Fed's Beige Book, the Fed does not expect a
significant economic recovery until late 2009 or early 2010 at best (remember, they
also said no recession and now we’re in a depression). Meanwhile, the ISM
Services Index for February dipped to 41.6% from 42.9%, indicating continued
contraction for the services sector. The consensus estimate was pegged at
41.0%. Investors and economists got a glimpse of what may be lurking in the
government's February nonfarm payroll report, which is due at the end of the
week. According to the latest ADP Employment Report, 697,000 jobs were lost in
February. The consensus estimate called for 630,000 job losses…’ ‘…fed survey: economy deteriorated in Jan., Feb. . After a
dismal start to 2009, business people see more pain ahead, expecting no
improvement in economic conditions till late this year at the earliest. Their
pessimism was evident in the Federal Reserve's latest snapshot of business
activity nationwide. It showed sharp cutbacks affecting both blue-collar jobs
that once churned out construction equipment and white-collar professionals
like business consultants and accountants. From factories in Cleveland to
high-tech firms in Texas and California, the Fed's beige book reported
widespread production declines. Services sector shrank in Feb., 5th straight
month…’ U.S. private sector cuts 697,000 jobs
in February FDIC’s Bair Says Insurance Fund Could Be Insolvent This Year The Never-Ending Bailout They Done Us Wrong: Spending Our Way Into Greater Depression Credit concerns pound GE shares in
volatile trade China hopes, oil's jump, both negatives,
end Wall St 5-day rout Warren Buffett's 'Fundamental Weakness' ETFs Suffer Outflows In February Celente: U.S. Has Entered “The
Greatest Depression” The D-word: The depression has become something worse
(AP) Obama Must Fire Geithner and
Summers Gold Industry Officials Warn Of
Depression Jim Rogers: Bailouts are
destroying the US Economy Paulson Was Behind Bailout Martial Law Threat Fed Hides Destination Of $2 Trillion In Bailout Money
PREVIOUS
(3-3-09), modest losses relative to reality as bad and worse than
expected news just keeps on coming along with suckers bear
market/short-covering rallies as here into the close to keep the suckers
suckered. Defaults/delinquencies up, home/car sales down… Celente: U.S. Has Entered “The Greatest Depression” …
Helicopter ben ‘bernanke indicated the near-term
outlook for the economy remains weak. Economists at Goldman Sachs concur; they
expect the U.S. economy will fall 7.0% in the first quarter, according to Dow
Jones. Despite housing stimulus provisions, pending home sales in January
declined 7.7%. The consensus estimate called for a 3.5% decline. The data
reflect the effects of ongoing job losses, lost wealth, and weak consumer
confidence. Similar forces continue weighing heavily on auto sales. Ford Motor (F 1.81, -0.07) reported February sales in
North America fell roughly 48%, which is steeper than the 42% drop that was
expected. General Motors (GM 1.99, -0.02) reported February sales sank nearly 53%,
exceeding the 45% fall that was widely forecast. Separate reports indicated
GM's chief operating officer said that without government funds the company's
European unit would run out of cash in the second quarter. Chrysler down 44%’…
ART HOGAN SAY’S ”IT’S A TOUGH ONE”…
THAT’S A TRUE STATEMENT!
Celente: U.S. Has Entered “The Greatest Depression” The D-word: The depression has become something worse (AP) Obama Must Fire Geithner and Summers Gold Industry Officials Warn Of Depression Jim Rogers: Bailouts are destroying the US Economy Gold has longest losing streak since October U.S. auto sales fall as depression deepens Blockbuster seeks debt overhaul, shares halted MGM Mirage casino co. says it may default on debt (AP) A Banana Republic By 2012? Change for the Worse Obama Calls Bush On Troop Withdrawal Plan Geithner Says U.S. Financial Rescue ‘Might Cost More’ (maybe he can locate the $4 trillion missing at the fed and use that) Pension (substantial funding shortfalls) bombs going off Pennsylvania Rep. Rohrer Introduces Tenth Amendment Resolution Previous (3-2-09), analyst chatter: one analyst said investors just can’t take (the wall street fraud/bull sh_) it anymore and sees 5,000 on the DOW (too optimistic); another says worst levels not yet seen, but markets functioning…riiiiight…, more bad economic news, dividend cuts; another says the so-called plan changinging everyday, not stimulus but at best stabilization (doomed to fail), unrealistic expectations (that’s realistic), talks funny assets/accounting (that’s what helped get us here-the fraud), a world of hurt, hope for short-covering rallies…sounds like a plan…riiiiight; another who called the crash says worst bear market in history, if priced in gold market has fallen 80% and more decline to come, says stimulus/stabilization good money after bad and recipients with worst management (fraud, etc.) should rather be allowed to fail, treasury bond/dollar bubble, u.s. stocks still overvalued so sell, precious (money) metals and overseas markets better; and finally, mainstream analyst says gold/bonds but no stocks. Dow industrials fall below 7,000; lowest since ‘97 Buffett says economy in shambles losses on derivatives contracts tied to the stock market. Banks and economy to keep bears' grip on stocks Berkshire reports a 96 percent drop in 4Q profit Chart of the Week: GDP Worse than Expected (at Seeking Alpha) Time to Bury the Markets NYSE Suspends $1 Stock Price Minimum Economics of this Depression [$$] BofA Executive Got Housing Perks (at The Wall Street Journal Online) Madoff seeks to keep NYC penthouse, $62M in assets – Typical kike/jews Dow finishes below 7,000 for first time since '97 (AP) The D-word: The depression has become something worse (AP) [$$] At Merrill, Thinning Herd of Carrion (at The Wall Street Journal Online) AIG Will Receive More Aid, Bigger Loss... NYSE Euronext chief gets 2008 pay valued at $9.2M (AP) Asian stock markets tumble on worsening US slump Sources: AIG to get up to $30B more in Fed aid Moody's lowers ratings on Citi's Japan operations (at MarketWatch) Oil falls below $44 on bleak US GDP, AIG news States' budget woes will outlast the depression israeli media denounced for insulting the Prophet Israeli minister calls for assassination of top arab leader justifying action to eliminate/exterminate nazionist israel/israelis for the sake of world peace and justice as… 8 more civilians die in US drone raid Buffett Says Economy Will Be 'Shambles' in 2009, Likely 'Well Beyond'... BERKSHIRE has worst year... Iran says USA planning 'long-term stay' in Iraq... Kudlow: Obama Declares War on Investors, Entrepreneurs, Businesses, And More... Bankers: Stop trashing us... Wall Street slides after CITI-government deal... Sets Single-Day Trading Volume... STRUGGLING STATES LOOK TO UNORTHODOX TAXES... Iran says USA planning 'long-term stay' in Iraq... Warren Buffett Speaks: His Worst Year Ever – If you listened to him recently (I warned you not to) you’re down another 20-30% since his government shill/propaganda talk (did he really give away his fortune – maybe he just decided to lose it and bring everyone with him – senile, I say yes) r A Banana Republic By 2012? Change for the Worse Previous (2-27-09), modest losses relative to reality including news much worse than expected: ‘The economy contracted at a staggering 6.2 percent pace at the end of 2008, the worst showing in a quarter-century, as consumers and businesses ratcheted back spending, plunging the country deeper into depression. The report released Friday showed the economy sinking much faster than the 3.8 percent annualized drop for the October-December quarter first estimated last month which rallied stocks significantly to keep suckers suckered and commission dollars flowing. It also was considerably weaker than the 5.4 percent annualized decline economists expected’. ‘Economic data remains gloomy. Fourth quarter GDP was revised lower to reflect an annual rate of -6.2% versus a previously estimated -3.8%. The decrease in fourth quarter activity primarily reflected negative contributions from exports, personal consumption expenditures, equipment and software, and residential fixed investment’. US economy suffers sharp nosedive Economy moving in reverse faster than predicted Moody’s predicts default rate will exceed peaks hit in Great Depression Shares tumble across globe as figures reveal U.S. economy shrank 6% in last quarter - the fastest rate in 25 years Regulators close banks in Illinois, Nevada FDIC Approves ‘Emergency’ Fee on Banks to Bolster Reserves Banks and economy to keep bears' grip on stocks FDIC raising fees on banks, adds emergency fee (AP) AIG talks weigh securitizing life policies…..riiiiight!…: source BofA carries loans $44 billion above market value Citi, U.S. Reach Accord on a Third Bailout (at The Wall Street Journal Online) Tax hikes are coming -- but you already knew that Investors await Buffett letter as Berkshire hits 5-1/2 year lows Five reasons buying a home in 2009 is a bad idea Three Top Economists Agree 2009 Worst Financial Crisis/Depression Since Great Depression; Risks Increase if Right Steps are Not Taken (Business Wire) WORST MONTH SINCE 1933 Paulson Was Behind Bailout Martial Law Threat Urban Warfare Drills Linked To Coming Economic Rage CIA Adds Economy To Threat Updates Fed Hides Destination Of $2 Trillion In Bailout Money We Watch Now As Funds Get Vaporized Bob Chapman | Business will go on as usual in Washington and on Wall Street — as corrupt as ever. Moody’s predicts default rate will exceed peaks hit in Great Depression A bigger proportion of non-investment grade companies will go bust in the US and overseas in the coming years than during the Great Depression, according to Moody’s, one of the world’s foremost experts on credit. US economy suffers sharp nosedive BBC | The US economy shrank by 6.2% in the last three months of 2008, official figures have shown, a far sharper fall than had previously been reported. FDIC Approves ‘Emergency’ Fee on Banks to Bolster Reserves Bloomberg | The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. will charge U.S. banks a one-time assessment and increase other fees to replenish its insurance fund, adding $27 billion in costs to an industry already hobbled by the financial crisis. Citigroup Shares Down 36% | The Treasury, which has provided a total of $45 billion to Citigroup, left the door open for the bank to seek additional government funding. Previous (2-26-09), Banks lost $26.2 billion last quarter, GM lost $10 billion past month, FDIC problem bank list grows to 252, u.s. broke but $3.5 trillion spending plan and $1.75 trillion budget deficit, etc., ‘FDIC reported that at the end of the fourth quarter its list of troubled institutions grew to 252 from 171 at the end of the third quarter. The latest data indicated January durable goods orders fell a more-than-expected 5.2%. Excluding transportation, durable goods fell 2.5%, which was also steeper than expected. January new home sales fell more than expected to an annualized rate of 309,000 units, which is a record low. Jobless claims continue to rise beyond expectations. Initial claims climbed 36,000 to 667,000 from the prior week. Continuing claims came in just below 5.03 million, up from nearly 5.00 million in the prior reading’. Americans receiving unemployment top 5 million Fannie Mae seeks $15.2B in US aid after 4Q loss $1.75T Deficit, Higher Taxes, "Bogus" Stimulus Obama’s Stimulus Bill is a Banker Contrived Debt Scam Obama’s War Machine Needs $800 Billion For 2009 A $1.75 TRILLION DEFICIT... Small Businesses To Suffer From Obama’s Tax Hike Obama’s Budget: Almost $1 Trillion in New Taxes Over Next 10 yrs, Starting 2011 ETF Advisers: Sell Into Market's Rally Paulson Was Behind Bailout Martial Law Threat Urban Warfare Drills Linked To Coming Economic Rage CIA Adds Economy To Threat Updates Fed Hides Destination Of $2 Trillion In Bailout Money US banks post first quarterly loss since 1990... Record Government Note Auction; Unprecedented amount of debt... More Fraud on Wall Street New York Times | WG Trading Company and Westridge Capital misappropriated funds from state and city pension funds, including Carnegie Mellon University and the University of Pittsburgh. Previous (2-25-09), suckers’ bear market/short-covering rally based on bull s**t/jawboning alone and bad news much worse than expected into the close to finish well off more realistic lows, to keep the suckers suckered so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! Economic/trends/demographics forecaster/analyst Harry S. Dent says this Great Depression will bottom out (with no cognizable uptick till) early 2020’s, unemployment 14%-17%, 50%-60% decline in real estate values, dollar (and market) crash, etc. (close but no cigar), is realistic and starkly dismal in light of the convergance of major bubbles which are deflating. New b.s. talking point the convertible preferreds (all real analysts know to treat as converted said securities to account for dilution - and quite possibly nationalization), and then the so-called ‘stress-tests’ for banks…riiiiight!…read those flat lines. Money managers accused of $550 million fraud (Reuters) TARP Said to Be Ripe for Fraud Existing U.S. home sales, prices drop in January Gannett slashes dividend 90 pct, saving $325M ETF Advisers: Sell Into Market's Rally Paulson Was Behind Bailout Martial Law Threat Urban Warfare Drills Linked To Coming Economic Rage Fed Hides Destination Of $2 Trillion In Bailout Money U.S. Consumer Confidence Collapsed to Record Low The Market Is Not Your Friend Bernanke says depression to linger Housing Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Fall a Record 18.5% U.S. Economy: Consumer Confidence In Record Slump Ron Paul Grills Bernanke: “You Can’t Reinflate The Bubble” Stocks drop as Obama speech and housing data weigh Gold investors make 120pc return in four months Bailout Bank Blows Millions Partying in L.A. How Credit Default Swaps Brought Down the World Economy ‘Black Swan’ Author Sees Trouble Exceeding 1930s Majority Of U.S. States Join Sovereignty Movement, Assert 10th Amendment Rights New World Liberty | With the economy collapsing, it is a very real and immediate danger that the federal government can turn into a completely criminal and fascist government. Rahm Emanuel Doesn’t Pay Taxes, So Why Should You? Kurt Nimmo | Don’t expect Rahm Emanuel, Nancy Pelosi, Tim Geithner, Evan Bayh, and other minions of the elite to pay their “fair share.” After all, taxes are for the little people. Previous (2-24-09), suckers’ bear market/short-covering rally based on bull s**t/jawboning alone and bad news much worse than expected, to keep the suckers suckered so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! Helicopter ben, the guy who said no recession even as now we know we were already in one (actually depression) told by handlers to be upbeat (how ‘bout just beat, burnt out, etc.) delivers still dire but sugar-coated for spin/consumption testimony/b.s.. Severe contraction…as in depression; recession/depression could end by end of year/beginning of 2010 if…and if his grandmother had wheels, she’d be a trolley car. Ridiculous bull s**t that got everyone here in the first place. Analyst chatter: talk about franchise value of banks ruined if nationalized, confidence at all-time low, end of 2010 before any recovery (if at all), orderly process of deleveraging, on defense till trends more believable; another-not there yet as contrarian indicators say otherwise and bearish industry view (newsletters); another- news bad as expected but confidence reading far worse than expected, downward momentum accelerated with occasional relief rallies at best; Housing Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Fall a Record 18.5% U.S. Economy: Consumer Confidence In Record Slump U.S. consumer confidence collapsed this month and home values plunged in December, the latest evidence of a deepening economic slump that will last well into 2010 and beyond. Analysts: New Era Of Chaos Has Taken Hold A wave of economists, investors and other financial experts issued a series of dire warnings concerning the global financial crisis over the weekend, stating that a new era of chaos has taken hold all over the globe. Paulson Was Behind Bailout Martial Law Threat Urban Warfare Drills Linked To Coming Economic Rage Fed Hides Destination Of $2 Trillion In Bailout Money U.S. Consumer Confidence Collapsed to Record Low The Market Is Not Your Friend Bernanke says depression to linger Get Ready for Mass Retail Closings Microsoft says no new cost cuts, shares hit 11-year low Stanford a cog in the U.S. intelligence dirty money laundering machine How the Economy was Lost Unemployment (already past 9% in reality) Will Pass 9% This Year: NABE SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! Previous (2-23-09), even the frauds on wall street who should be prosecuted are not buying the rhetoric/b.s. which is very, very, etc., short on detail, ie., spending money the broke u.s. doesn’t have for bailouts, while cutting the deficit in half in 4 years, etc.,…..riiiiiight! What economists / analysts are saying: Zandi - rapidly eroding economy; analyst – ugly…lots of bull s**t, no specifics/details, not pretty picture, equity holders of financials wiped out prospectively; Financial Times Editor – markets at new lows, nationalize or not (defacto they’re already nationalized), AIG trading at 50 cents has received $80 billion in bailout funds and just records loss of $60 billion, dire; bank analyst – downward pressure on financials particularly as dilution taken into account, write-offs, more capital needed, securitization market down, down, down and more capital necessary for writedowns; analyst – vicious bear, no faith in government plan, dismal! . One analyst previously pointed out there has been not one prosecution thus far and the frauds on wall street should be prosecuted and forced disgorgement. Analyst Frank Cochrane looks ahead to 4,000 to 6,000 on the DOW, 700 to 900 on the NASDAQ, and 425 to 625 on the S&P, and says spending/stimulus programs will not work, a point on which he is correct and the low end of his ranges closer to reality. Not Just a Few Bad Apples - Corruption is Systemic in America In case you believe that there are only “a couple of bad apples” in the United States, here is an off-the-top-of-his-head (I could give many, many more including my RICO case) list of corruption by leading pillars of american society. Wall Street slides to 12-year low New U.S. stake in Citigroup will not calm realities/doubts AIG in talks with U.S. government, sees $60 billion loss: source Pinnacle West shares fall on earnings, outlook (AP) LaSalle Hotel shares fall on analyst outlook (AP) Harley-Davidson shares fall on sales worries / realities (AP) Major stock market indexes fall to 1997 levels and much further down to go given realities Micron Tech to cut up to 2,000 more jobs in Idaho Asian shares slump after Dow hits 1997 low (at MarketWatch) The S&P 500's Incredibly Shrinking Market Cap The more they do, the worse it gets Paulson Was Behind Bailout Martial Law Threat Fed Hides Destination Of $2 Trillion In Bailout Money The Great “Global Crisis of Maturity” and the New World Order World Financial System In A State Of Insolvency Urban Warfare Drills Linked To Coming Economic Rage Britain faces summer of rage Get Ready for Mass Retail Closings Yahoo Finance | About 220,000 stores will close this year in America. Editorials: Rewriting rules of global finance GLOBAL MARKETS-US stocks slide as bear grips harder, oil falls BACK TO 1997... State sends $1 food stamp checks to 250,000... Obama pledges to slash deficit - after increase... Rosy assumptions... Philadelphia newspapers' owner files for bankruptcy... AIG Seeks More US Funds As Record Loss Looms... Advisers readying bankruptcy financing for automakers... BANK MESS: HSBC CONSIDERS $20B CASH CALL FROM INVESTORS... Sentiment Overview: Pessimists Increase by 18% Stocks: Horrible Start to 2008, Worse in 2009 Ex-Senate aide charged in Abramoff scandal THE FAILED INFLUENCE GAME: Stimulus still aiding K Street Swiss party wants to punish USA for UBS bank probe... Developing... Japan stocks fall after lender seeks bankruptcy (AP) Gov't reportedly mulls dilution, more obfuscation, and more money down the rabbit hole by taking larger stake in Citi (AP) RBS prepares to unveil global downsizing plan Richard Russell: Bear Market Remains in Force Summary of Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2009 The New Depression - The Lessons of the 1930s Markets May be Said to be Oversold (Again), But Decisive Rally Won’t Be Forthcoming as Much Worse and Much More Selling to Come Philly newspaper owner files for Chapter 11 (AP)
Previous (2-20-09), stocks tumbled around the world, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to its biggest weekly drop since November, on concern the deepening recession will force banks to seek more government aid. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index slid to a six-year low, and Japan’s Topix Index declined to the worst level since 1984. Analysts saying impossible to predict bottom in this dismal scenario, nationalization concerns, not bottomed yet, new bear market lows. Art Hogan says greater than 50% is defacto nationalization anyway and nothing left for shareholders, pricing mechanism for toxic assets problematic along with negative capitalization ratios, new lows in offing, gold for capital preservation along with treasuries and money markets. Nader says depression. There’s no end/bottom in sight. One says 2011-2014 earliest for bottoming at best and that nationalization means politization. One analyst previously pointed out there has been not one prosecution thus far and the frauds on wall street should be prosecuted and forced disgorgement. Analyst Frank Cochrane looks ahead to 4,000 to 6,000 on the DOW, 700 to 900 on the NASDAQ, and 425 to 625 on the S&P, and says spending/stimulus programs will not work, a point on which he is correct and the low end of his ranges closer to reality. Not Just a Few Bad Apples - Corruption is Systemic in America In case you believe that there are only “a couple of bad apples” in the United States, here is an off-the-top-of-his-head (I could give many, many more including my RICO case) list of corruption by leading pillars of american society. SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! Major indexes fall more than 6 percent for week The Great Depression has Arrived- Collapsing American Dreams Defacto if not dejure nationalization realities hit Citi, BofA Soros sees no bottom for world financial "collapse" Trustee: Some Madoff stock trades were fiction Morgan Stanley offers $3 billion broker bonuses, Wells none (Reuters) Gold Hits $1,000 Ron Paul: Stimulus “Waste of Money” The Inconveninent Debt Gold Tops $1,000, First Time Since March as Depression Deepens Stocks Drop Around the World; Stoxx 600 Falls to 6-Year Low Fed Hides Destination Of $2 Trillion In Bailout Money “…The United States was in much better shape, economically, going into the Great Depression than it is now. Prosperity is not coming back to the U.S. as we know it. We are in a lot of trouble…”More Economists Say Crisis Is Worse Than Great Depression Previous (2-18-09), all news much worse than expected as new home starts plunge 17% (-56% year over year), fed/bernanke downgrades economic forecast (rallied stocks when he made same which was bull s**t then as pointed out here) predicting reality of contraction which he says will be protracted, prolonged and increased unemployment (9%) though reality is much worse than they’re once again (falsely) predicting (we’re already significantly past 9% unemployment) and as one economist points out, in an economic freefall. bernanke’s outlook realistically dismal which sentiment is shared by analysts/economists who envision no bottoming until well into 2010 at best because…..this is a DEPRESSION! Previous (2-19-09), ‘Initial jobless claims totaled 627,000, topping the 620,000 claims that were expected. Initial claims were unchanged week-over-week, while the four-week moving average moved up to 619,000 from 608,500. Continuing claims reached record highs of 4.99 million. Economists forecast 4.81 million continuing claims. The four-week moving average for continuing claims stands at 4.84 million, up from 4.75 million. Jobless claims were a drag on the January index of leading economic indicators, which increased 0.4%, exceeding the consensus forecast of a 0.1% increase. An increase in the money supply proved to be the main driver lifting the index, but the increased money supply contributes to inflationary concerns. Producer prices, which measure inflation, increased more than expected in January. The January PPI and core PPI were up 0.8% and 0.4%, respectively.’ Philly fed manufacturing index at 18 year low. The easiest to forecast leading economic indicator was fudged to the upside, though still marginal, with said fake number substantially exceeding all private forecasts (stock prices, auto, housing, employment, etc., all down sharply in subject month…..hence, I don’t think so and fake report). Analysts saying stimulus plan not stimulative, specter of bank nationalization (banks insolvent), loss of pricing power across most all industries, and then the plethora of very bad economic/financial data with breakthrough technical bottoms, looking for violent sell-off/capitulation to provide minimal/short-lived bear market rallies, with some ephemeral opportunities among defensive stock plays, ie., whole foods (pricing power), auto parts (refurbishing old cars). One analyst previously pointed out there has been not one prosecution thus far and the frauds on wall street should be prosecuted and forced disgorgement. Analyst Frank Cochrane looks ahead to 4,000 to 6,000 on the DOW, 700 to 900 on the NASDAQ, and 425 to 625 on the S&P, and says spending/stimulus programs will not work, a point on which he is correct and the low end of his ranges closer to reality. Not Just a Few Bad Apples - Corruption is Systemic in America In case you believe that there are only “a couple of bad apples” in the United States, here is an off-the-top-of-his-head (I could give many, many more including my RICO case) list of corruption by leading pillars of american society. SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! Jobless Claims Hit Record High; Inflation Jumps Dow falls to 6-year low as banks slide Wholesale inflation takes biggest jump in 6 months Dow Closes at New Bear-Market Low Dow Theorists spot a bear Rising debt will overwhelm Obama’s effort to rescue the economy Bank debt trades at distressed levels (at FT.com) 5 million Americans drawing jobless benefits AP IMPACT: Jobless hit with bank fees on benefits (AP) FBI tracks down Texas financier in fraud case (AP) FBI finds Allen Stanford in Virginia Stanford curried influence in DC: watchdog group PC makers' shares fall on worsening demand BofA and Citi shares fall on defacto or dejure nationalization near GE shares dip to lowest since 1995 Feb. could be worst month yet for jobless claims Fitch downgrades Marriott on lodging softness (AP) Fed downgrades economic forecast for this year “…The United States was in much better shape, economically, going into the Great Depression than it is now. Prosperity is not coming back to the U.S. as we know it. We are in a lot of trouble…”More Economists Say Crisis Is Worse Than Great Depression Previous (2-18-09), all news much worse than expected as new home starts plunge 17% (-56% year over year), fed/bernanke downgrades economic forecast (rallied stocks when he made same which was bull s**t then as pointed out here) predicting reality of contraction which he says will be protracted, prolonged and increased unemployment (9%) though reality is much worse than they’re once again (falsely) predicting (we’re already significantly past 9% unemployment) and as one economist points out, in an economic freefall. bernanke’s outlook realistically dismal which sentiment is shared by analysts/economists who envision no bottoming until well into 2010 at best because…..this is a DEPRESSION!
Not Just a Few Bad Apples - Corruption is Systemic in America Fed downgrades economic forecast for this year Fed says US economy will get worse in 2009 Bernanke cuts growth view, considers inflation target Hundreds seek their money as Stanford fallout spreads HP cuts full year outlook (Reuters) UBS to pay $780M, open secret Swiss bank records Billionaire's bank customers denied their deposits HP profit slumps 13 pct on weak PC and ink sales [$$] Dow ends little-changed amid slew of grim news (at The Wall Street Journal Online) The Bull's Case for Buying Gold ...starts, permits plunge to new record lows SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
Previous (2-17-09),
modest losses relative to reality so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE
PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! Analysts say not very encouraging, market saying
stimulus will not work, lots of toxic assets still out their, nothing safe in
bear market, oil to $80, gold appropriate hedge against deflation and inflation
and deserves spot in portfolios, no turnaround anytime soon, and tough-sledding
ahead. “…The
United States was in much better shape, economically, going into the Great
Depression than it is now. Prosperity is not coming back to the U.S.
as we know it. We are in a lot of trouble…”More Economists
Say Crisis Is Worse Than Great Depression Joint Chiefs
chairman calls fiscal calamity a bigger threat than any war GM seeks up to $30B in aid, to cut 47,000
jobs (AP)
GM and Chrysler seek nearly $22 billion more in aid
Stocks sink to November lows on
depression fears U.S. charges Allen Stanford with
"massive" fraud Reality about expensive, flawed, failed
stimulus drag stocks down sharply (AP) It’s
Getting Ugly: Economist Says Hoard Gold &
Scotch Paul Joseph Watson | Williams predicts hyperinflationary
depression will mean a $100 dollar bill is worth less than toilet paper. 65 Trillion - U.S.
Financial Obligations Exceed The Entire World’s GDP A “Monetary
Stalingrad” is on its way to Europe Kansas suspends
income tax refunds, may miss payroll Europe’s
economic slump deeper than expected Total desperation by frauds on wall
street. One analyst previously pointed out there has been not
one prosecution thus far and the frauds on wall street should be prosecuted.
Analyst Frank
Cochrane looks ahead to 4,000 to 6,000 on the DOW, 700 to 900 on the NASDAQ,
and 425 to 625 on the S&P, and says spending/stimulus programs will not
work, a point on which he is correct and the low end of his ranges closer to
reality. Indeed, the lunatic wall street frauds’ desperation linked to their
substantial crimes and booty which must be disgorged through prosecution,
especially since none of the real problems (hundreds of trillions of
fraudulent/worthless securities, etc.- Analyst Andre Egleshion puts the amount at
$600+trillion) have been addressed much less solved; hence, virtually all problems remain and there is but an
infinitesimally small fraction of the capital and resources necessary to solve
them thanks to fraud, incompetence, lack of knowledge/ability, greed, etc., so SELL /SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU
STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! GM seeks up to $30B in aid, to cut 47,000
jobs (AP) America's Insolvent Banks (at Seeking Alpha)
Gold Jumps to 7-Month High as
Investors Seek to Preserve Wealth Stocks
sink to 3-month lows GM and Chrysler seek nearly $22 billion more in aid
Stocks sink to November lows on
depression fears U.S. charges Allen Stanford with
"massive" fraud Reality about expensive, flawed, failed
stimulus drag stocks down sharply (AP) It’s Getting
Ugly: Economist Says Hoard Gold & Scotch Paul Joseph Watson | Williams predicts hyperinflationary
depression will mean a $100 dollar bill is worth less than toilet paper. 65 Trillion - U.S.
Financial Obligations Exceed The Entire World’s GDP A “Monetary
Stalingrad” is on its way to Europe Kansas suspends
income tax refunds, may miss payroll Europe’s
economic slump deeper than expected WORLD
TO STAY IN SLUMP
Previous(2-13-09), modest losses relative to reality
inasmuch as outlook remains bleak with data (though sugar-coated, inflated,
false to provide more favorable b.s. talk points) dismal as consumer confidence
down sharply ((56.2 vs. 61.2 previous, job losses continue as do earnings
declines/losses, bankruptcies, defaults, etc., so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE
PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! Analysts negative regarding level of
uncertainty, skepticism regarding more stimulus/bailout money down the rabbit
hole, longer-term considerations of deflation/hyperinflation, and particularly
the valuation of assets in any of the bailouts, etc.. Oil inventories high
but production cuts will weigh heavily later. [$$] Long-Term Dow Chart Suggests More Downside Large U.S. banks on edge of insolvency, experts say Regulators close banks in Neb., Fla., Ill., Ore.
GOLD Separating from the US DOLLAR-Banks insolvent Another $3T of U.S. Debt: Don't Count on
Foreigners to Pay for Our Bailouts U.S. auto suppliers
seek $18.5 billion in government aid How Banks Are Worsening the
Foreclosure Crisis Stocks fall as investors can't shake
economic woes
Huge stimulus bill only the beginning of the end,
substantial investment in Weimar dollar printing presses/operators envisioned:
Obama Will the stimulus actually stimulate?
Economists say no This
is 1930 all over again and far worse Federal
obligations exceed world GDP... Euro Zone Sees Biggest Contraction
on Record Previous (2-12-09), suckers’ bear
market rally with 200+ point upswing into the close based on b**l s**t alone on continuing bad news including
increasingly high job loss/unemployment numbers (though vastly understated),
unexpected (euphemistic for false) +1% January retail, and leak of yet the new
latest, greatest, economic “stimulus”/subsidy, etc., so especially great
opportunity to SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL
CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! 23% decrease in wealth in u.s. and much further to go. Fed
printing worthless Weimar dollars like mad (ultimately, inevitably
hyperinflationary) while treasury securities bubble gets bigger (stay
away from treasuries – TIPS/treasury inflation protected securities only). Total desperation by frauds on wall
street. One analyst previously pointed out there has been not
one prosecution thus far and the frauds on wall street should be prosecuted.
Analyst Frank
Cochrane looks ahead to 4,000 to 6,000 on the DOW, 700 to 900 on the NASDAQ,
and 425 to 625 on the S&P, and says spending/stimulus programs will not
work, a point on which he is correct and the low end of his ranges closer to
reality. Indeed, the lunatic wall street frauds’ desperation linked to their
substantial crimes and booty which must be disgorged through prosecution,
especially since none of the real problems (hundreds of trillions of
fraudulent/worthless securities, etc.- Analyst Andre Egleshion puts the amount at
$600+trillion) have been addressed much less solved; hence, virtually all problems remain and there is but an
infinitesimally small fraction of the capital and resources necessary to solve
them thanks to fraud, incompetence, lack of knowledge/ability, greed, etc.. Obama’s Stimulus Not Enough to
Avert Biggest GDP Drop Since 1946 Bloomberg | Obama’s
stimulus plan will be insufficient to avert the biggest U.S. economic decline
since 1946 as consumer spending posts its longest slide on record. Marc Faber: U S will default
on debt or enter hyperinflation YouTube | Mr. Faber predicts the Zimbabwe model
for the United States.
Home Prices
Slide 12%, Most on Record, as Foreclosures Drain Value...
Deluge of
Financial Calamities Looming by Mid-March Retail sales rebound, jobless claims
stay high ABCNEWS:
CATERPILLAR CEO contradicts Obama: 'We're going to have more layoffs before we
start hiring again'... Retail sales rise unexpectedly (false report) in
January Wells Fargo charge boosts fourth
quarter loss (Reuters) Oh yet another new mortgage plan news
is bs purported reason for spurring late suckers bear market stock rally
The Market and geithner's Empty Suit No Plan SELL/SELL
INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME! Previous
(2-11-09), suckers bear market rally into the close based upon the
bailout/stimulus fairy tale. Reality speaks for itself so the following latest
news links (job loss/cut anouncements too numerous for inclusion and real
numbers/data worse than false/gov’t/shill reports) plus previous 2-10-09
assessment which follows. ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
In 2009 were going to see the worst
economic collapse ever, the Greatest Depression, says Gerald Celente, U.S.
trend forecaster. He believes its going to be very violent in the U.S.,
including there being a tax revolt. This DEPRESSION will last 23-26
YEARS! Government is POWERLESS! We are facing a Depression that
will last 23-26 years. The response of government is going to seal our fate
because they cannot learn from the past and will make the same mistakes that
every politician has made before them. Economic Rescue Plan: More Debt,
More Dollar Devaluation And More Government Larry Summers: Fox Guarding The
Henhouse COMEX Crash To Send Gold To $3,000 Gold jumps 3 pct to 6-1/2 mth high on risk aversion Highest
Unemployment in Three Decades Economic Rescue
Plan: More Debt, More Dollar Devaluation And More Government PAPER: European
banks sitting on $24 trillion of toxic assets... The Day After:
Stocks Struggle to Overcome Geithner's Stumble, RIM's Warning Why Americans Should Care More About the $2-$5T
Bailout vs. the $789B Stimulus Ireland
to take control of banks... Popular Rage Grows as Global
Crisis Worsens Previously (2-10-09) only modest drop
relative to reality as pointed out by analyst Frank Cochrane who looks ahead to 4,000 to 6,000 on
the DOW, 700 to 900 on the NASDAQ, and 425 to 625 on the S&P, and says
spending/stimulus programs will not work, a point on which he is correct and
the low end of his ranges closer to reality. There seems near unanimity by astute
people in the know that timothy (only the little people
pay taxes) geithner is just not up to the job. Indeed, his apparent Freudian
slip “arrest it” must have been a manifestation of his guilt for purposely
evading taxes [he still after audit and before confirmation has not paid the
taxes he asserted as time-barred for collection (should have been arrested)],
and then there’s the $4 trillion missing at the New York fed (and hence his
prospective arrest), and now even more obfuscation with regard to taxpayer
funds (possible future arrest?). A career bureaucrat, one economist/analyst
points out that tiny tim geithner is not an economist and his so-called plan is
without a plan yet we’re now talking in trillions. Helicopter ben bernanke
paints realistically bleak outlook [though rosier than reality The Economist, a Widely Respected
and Authoritative Financial/Economic Publication: U.S. In Depression, Not
Recession Video:
Crash Will be Worse than Great Depression Great Recession/Depression of 2008, et seq., Worse Than
All Others IMF warns of
Great Depression Stocks Could Drop 20%, No Safe Haven: Dr. Reality Celente Correctly Predicts
Revolution, Food Riots, Tax Rebellions By 2012 Former chief
economist: U.S. in a depression Merrill Lynch’s Chief Economist: We’re Already In a Depression
Ray Dalio: A Long and Painful Depression - Barron's
Interview Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 , job
losses like mad, and don’t believe the understated unemployment rates] seems
flustered, impotent but really should allow alan greenspan his due for the
current debacle. How about charging, arresting, and
prosecuting the perpetrators of the massive fraud instead of using taxpayer
funds to bail them out (especially since they’re now buying the fraudulent, worthless
securities as well as talking funny books – they already have the funny money
being printed like mad). Especially great opportunity to SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/TAKE
PROFITS/SELL WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! . UBS cuts jobs after fourth-quarter loss (Reuters)
UBS to slash more jobs after reporting
$7 billion loss Blue Chip poll cuts forecast for second
half 2009 (Reuters) GM
cuts 10000 salaried jobs, trims employees' pay Sirius
preparing possible bankruptcy filing: report Stocks sink over 4 percent on bank plan
apprehension U.S. offers $2 trillion bank plan but stocks slump
GE transport unit to cut or furlough
1,550 workers Asia stocks fall amid skepticism over
US bank plan (AP) $3 trillion! — Senate, Fed, Treasury
attack crisis [$$] Foreclosure 'Tsunami' Hits Mortgage-Servicing
Firms (at The Wall Street Journal Online) Senate Passes $819
Billion Economic Stimulus Bill Bernanke Begins
‘Thorough Review’ of Fed Disclosure Stocks Tumble as
Bailout Plan Is Unveiled Previous (2-9-09), suckers’ bear
market/short-covering rally into the close to end mixed based on continuing bad news including
new job cuts/losses including 20,000 from Nissan, etc., so still great
opportunity to SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL
CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! Barron’s: Economist/analyst says depression has long way to
go and lot’s of prospective pain Ray Dalio: A Long and Painful Depression - Barron's
Interview . Analysts talk up adage, ‘buy on rumor, sell on news’
regarding ie., bailouts, bailouts, bailouts, with money they don’t have as
total now approaches $9.7 trillion (printing those worthless Weimar dollars
like mad, ultimately/inevitably hyperinflationary), buy gold on dips;
short-covering rally via irrational exuberance induced bailout news, downside
volatility, dilution (stock issued will dilute EPS), stimulus won’t work,
lottery stocks (financials) based on short-term blips based on b.s./bailout
news alone. Ray Dalio: A Long and Painful Depression - Barron's
Interview Financial plan won't include "bad bank": TV
One in eight lenders may fail, RBC says
One Scary Unemployment Chart Bring back the
guillotine… for bankers Geithner says G7
should act ‘promptly’ on economy We’re moving
close to ‘a bailout-based economy’ Protectionism,
unemployment and riots as the global slump deepens Obama’s Change: Expanding the
Power of the NSC and Shadow Government Fitch cuts BofA ratings (at bizjournals.com)
House
Appropriations Chairman on Stimulus Waste: 'So What'... CBO:
Stimulus harmful over long haul... LG Elec to cut $2.2 billion costs as recession
bites (Reuters) Previous (2-6-09), suckers’
bear market rally based on especially bad news, viz., ‘depression-battered employers eliminated 598,000 jobs in
January, the most since the end of 1974, bringing unemployment rate to 7.6
percent, the grim figures being further proof that the nation's job climate is
deteriorating at an alarming clip with no end in sight.’ Economy so weak oil demand and price
down but oil stocks rallied in the alice-in-wonderland fraudulent world of wall
street. The lunatic wall street frauds’ desperation linked to their
substantial crimes and booty which must be disgorged through prosecution,
especially since none of the real problems (hundreds of trillions of
fraudulent/worthless securities, etc.- Analyst Andre Egleshion puts the amount
at $600+trillion) have been addressed much less solved; hence, virtually all problems remain and there is but an
infinitesimally small fraction of the capital and resources necessary to solve
them thanks to fraud, incompetence, lack of knowledge/ability, greed, etc., so especially great opportunity to SELL/TAKE PROFITS SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! Real Unemployment Figures Double Those Reported By Labor
Department Paul Joseph Watson | 7.6% is actually over 15% - just 9%
shy of figure at height of great depression. Financial Coup d’Etat Rep. Kanjorski: $550 Billion
Disappeared in “Electronic Run On the Banks” U.S. job losses accelerate
Fed's Yellen sees dynamics similar to
Depression Regulators close 3 more U.S. banks
Consumer credit falls more than expected
in Dec. Peter Schiff: Stimulus Bill Will Lead to “Unmitigated
Disaster” Nearly 600K jobs lost in Jan.; more pain
ahead Peter Schiff: Why I'm Right About the Substantial
Further Decline and My Critics Are All Wrong There is a high chance a majority of the States within the
United States of America could file for Chapter 9 bankruptcy. There are
currently 46 states with high budget deficits, Arizona being one of them. The lunatic wall street frauds’ desperation linked to their
substantial crimes and booty which must be disgorged through prosecution,
especially since none of the real problems (hundreds of trillions of
fraudulent/worthless securities, etc.- Analyst
Andre Egleshion puts the amount at $600+trillion) have been addressed
much less solved; hence, virtually all problems remain
and there is but an infinitesimally small fraction of the capital and resources
necessary to solve them thanks to fraud, incompetence, lack of
knowledge/ability, greed, etc., so
great opportunity to SELL INTO
RALLIES/STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME! Previous day’s (2-5-09) news as bad,
ie., record level monthly unemployment numbers much worse than expected
626,000, factory orders down, IMF says no breakthrough in stabilizing financial
sector, etc., but irrational exuberance on bailout talk and prospect of not
only funny money but now funny assets with proposed new accounting rules to
hide financial reality (dismal) so great opportunity to SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU
STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! U.S. jobless claims surge in
latest week to 626,000 Parallels With the
Great Depression Obama Warns of
‘Catastrophe:’ What Happened to ‘Hope’ and ‘Change?’
NEWS CORP loses $6.4 billion... ...writedowns GE
chief warns on USA depression threat... Watchdog:
Treasury overpaid for bank stocks... USA
Must Spend Trillions they don’t have to prevent a long-lasting
Depression'... GERMAN
BANK FIRST LOSS SINCE WWII OWING TO AMERICAN SECURITIES FRAUD DEBACLE; REJECTS
STATE AID... MCCLATCHY
reports loss on newspapers' decline, plans deep cost cuts...
Treasury
in plans for record debt sale...
Accounting rule change
for more cook the books fraud and bailout hopes spur Wall St. rally New jobless claims surge to 26-year
high Auto suppliers seek rescue as
crisis deepens Art Hogan refers to the prevalence of
bailout rhetoric, financials (among others) under pressure because there have
been twice as many downside surprises on the earnings front with either no
guidance or bad outlook, and cites new trading range for oil at $40 -
$50. Kraft, bank worries knock Wall St; Cisco hit late
Cisco outlook misses expectations
The Bad Bank
Assets Proposal: Even Worse Than You Imagined TIMEWARNER the
troubled, horribly managed media company swings to 4Q loss on hefty
writedown... UBS Boosts ‘09 Gold Forecast to $1,000 One analyst
previously pointed out there has been not one prosecution thus far and the
frauds on wall street should be prosecuted. Indeed, the lunatic wall street frauds’ desperation linked to their
substantial crimes and booty which must be disgorged through prosecution,
especially since none of the real problems (hundreds of trillions of
fraudulent/worthless securities, etc.- Analyst Andre Egleshion puts the amount
at $600+trillion) have been addressed much less solved; hence, virtually all problems remain and there is but an
infinitesimally small fraction of the capital and resources necessary to solve
them thanks to fraud, incompetence, lack of knowledge/ability, greed, etc.. Another Prominent Economist
Forecasts Depression, Says Gold To Hit $2000 Auto sales hit 27-year low
US auto sales plunge 37 percent to
26-year low Motorola's woes pile up in $3.6B quarterly loss
Disney 1Q profits drop 32 percent;
shares slide Wells Fargo defends, then cancels Vegas junket
Electronic Arts posts wider loss, huge
layoffs announced, hurt by charges Fed Secretly
Lends $2 Trillion to Banksters without Oversight JAPAN: “There has never been data
this bad for any major economy - even in the great Depression”; “We are
literally looking at the unimaginable” Obama predicts more bank failures California goes broke, halts $3.5
billion in payments Previous,
consumer spending down (-1%), manufacturing activity down, construction
spending down 5.1% and much worse than expected. Problems ahead for bonds
(currency risk, low yield, etc.) including treasuries (bubble), interest rates
prospectively higher, bad real estate market into 2010 as banks play catch up
on foreclosed properties, with top end getting hit and weaker rental market to
boot. “…The
United States was in much better shape, economically, going into the Great
Depression than it is now. Prosperity is not coming back to the U.S. as we know
it. We are in a lot of trouble…”. Personal
bankruptcies soar 33% More Economists
Say Crisis Is Worse Than Great Depression Steve Watson | Ominous headlines have prominent
analysts spelling out disaster. Macy's cuts 7,000 jobs, slashes
dividend Factory decline, consumer spending drops
Morgan Stanley plans up to 4 percent in
job cuts Joint Chiefs
chairman calls fiscal calamity a bigger threat than any war WALL
ST ALREADY DOWN 10% FOR YEAR... Folding dealers shock car buyers with
unpaid liens (AP) GlaxoSmithkline to cut 6,000 jobs: report
The New Economic Reality …do not think we should be incurring
trillions in debt for an ill-conceived or even a properly conceived plan. We
cannot spend that much. OUR PROBLEM WAS SPENDING MORE THAN WE MADE SO THE
ANSWER CANNOT BE THE GOVERNMENT ALLOWING US TO SPEND MORE THAN WE MAKE. Joseph
Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate, can tell you better than me, and he thinks we are asking for major problems. Florida, Maryland, Utah Banks
Seized Amid Deepening Financial Crisis... Worse than the Great Depression Charts Predict: Oil May Whip Back up to $100 Previous
session, 31st u.s. bank to fail, 6th this year, Economy's
new plunge is worst in quarter-century (AP) as GDP falls 3.8% defying
much worse/higher private/real forecasts/estimates; bad economy, bad economic
data, bad real estate market; defensive non-equity investing recommended, ie.,
short-term bonds, single short ETF hedge funds, etc.. One
analyst points out there has been not one prosecution thus far and they should
be prosecuted. Indeed, the lunatic wall street frauds’ desperation linked to their
substantial crimes and booty which must be disgorged through prosecution,
especially since none of the real problems (hundreds of trillions of
fraudulent/worthless securities, etc.- Analyst Andre Egleshion puts the amount
at $600+trillion) have been addressed much less solved; hence, virtually all problems remain and there is but an
infinitesimally small fraction of the capital and resources necessary to solve
them thanks to fraud, incompetence, lack of knowledge/ability, greed, etc.. GDP sees biggest drop in 27 years The Ugly Truth: The American Economy is Not Coming Back Economy, bank woes drag market to worst
January ever Economy's new plunge is worst in
quarter-century Stocks' January drop isn't welcome sign
for 2009 [$$] January Was Dow's Worst In 113 Years (at The
Wall Street Journal Online) Economy's new plunge is
worst in quarter-century (AP) Worst
January ever for Dow, S&P 500 US Stocks Drop, Capping Market’s Worst January, on Economy
Bloomberg US Stocks Off; Financials, Industrials Lead DJIA Under
8000 MarketWatch US
Economy Will Keep Sliding After Shrinking Most Since 1982 U.S. Eyes Two-Part Bailout for
Banks 46 Of 50 States Could File Bankruptcy
In 2009-2010 Economic crisis has put the world “on the road to serious
social instability” Gold rallies 2 pct on haven buying, hits euro high Worst
January on Record for Stocks... Previous session, at
least Obama referred to the outrageousness of the wall street perps/frauds who
created the crisis, got wealthier in so doing at other peoples expense/damage,
received taxpayer bailout funds because of what crimes they did, and now
reportedly took huge bonuses ($18 billion) for failed and fraudulent
performance; but if he thinks shaming them into better behavior is effective,
then he is a fool. One analyst points out there has been not
one prosecution thus far and they should be prosecuted. Indeed, the lunatic wall street frauds’ desperation linked to their
substantial crimes and booty which must be disgorged through prosecution,
especially since none of the real problems (hundreds of trillions of
fraudulent/worthless securities, etc.- Analyst Andre Egleshion puts the amount
at $600+trillion) have been addressed much less solved; hence, virtually all problems remain and there is but an
infinitesimally small fraction of the capital and resources necessary to solve
them thanks to fraud, incompetence, lack of knowledge/ability, greed, etc.. All bad news: all-time record continuing
unemployment claims, durable goods orders down more than expected, new home
sales down record levels (-37%), banking system insolvent, long-term treasuy
bubble about to burst, DEPRESSION, etc.; December durable goods orders declined
2.6%, marking the fifth straight monthly decline. Excluding
transportation, orders were down 3.6%. The drop in both readings was also
steeper than expected. In other economic news, December new home sales declined
more than expected, falling almost 15% from the prior month. The supply of new
homes is at an all-time high of nearly 13 months, based on the pace of current
sales. Demand for new homes remains weak as weak labor markets limit buyers.
Initial jobless claims for the week ended Jan. 24 increased modestly to
588,000, which exceeded the 575,000 claims expected. Continuing claims climbed
to 4.78 million, which is the highest level for continuing claims in 40 years. More Economists
Say Crisis Is Worse Than Great Depression Steve Watson | Ominous headlines have prominent
analysts spelling out disaster. Jobless Sheep Fed Reserve Fails to Reflate the US Banking System Signs of deepening economic woes slam
Wall St.
Americans
receiving jobless benefits hits record... [$$] Ex-Merrill Executives Got Burned
by Madoff (at The Wall Street Journal Online)
Disney plans 5 pct job cuts at ABC group
US new jobless claims up,continued
claims a record Workers receiving unemployment at 25-year
high
Obama calls $18B in Wall Street bonuses 'shameful’ – Is
that it? Is that all there is? What about illegal as the perpetrators of the
massive fraud receive taxpayer bailout funds …for their bonuses.'
Japanese output falls at record pace
Ford posts $14.6B 2008 loss, near $6
billion loss for quarter, still won't seek aid
Merrill Lynch’s Chief Economist: We’re Already In a
Depression Stocks Could Drop 20%, No Safe Haven: Dr. Reality MURDOCH: Crisis Worsening,
'Drastic Action' Needed... Stiffed: Why are bailed-out banks helping Pfizer buy Wyeth? Previous, suckers’ bear market
ralley based on b**l s**t alone, viz., the now fabled big bad wolf bank to eat
all the so-called toxic debt at taxpayer expense (for
the economy- what a fairy tale), etc., so especially great opportunity to SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/TAKE
PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! All bad news continues: Boeing to cut 10,000 jobs, AOL 700,
Starbucks 6,700 , and on and on, the list is long, continues, and is growing, Warning over
collapse in capital flows Telegraph | The world
economy will shrink this year for the first time since the Second World War,
warns the gloomiest forecast yet delivered by a major international
institutional. MERRILL LYNCH’S CHIEF
ECONOMIST: WE’RE ALREADY IN A DEPRESSION Stocks Could Drop 20%, No Safe Haven:
Dr. Reality World growth ‘worst for 60 years’ Mass layoffs surge in 2008, continue at
rapid pace (AP)
'American consumer can
no longer act as motor of global economy'... Analyst
Ciovacco sums it up thusly: …We have seen many of these bailout inspired "feel
good" days during the bear market. The market cheered the bailout out of
Bear Sterns, only to retrace all the gains while moving to lower lows. When
Fannie and Freddie were bailed out by you and me (taxpayers), the market
"felt good" only to move on to lower lows and more losses. When AIG
was bailout out by - you guessed it, you and me, it was seen as a positive.
Stocks went on to make new lows. TARP was hailed by the markets as the answer
to all our problems - stocks moved higher in anticipation, then made new lows.
When the formerly "big" three were given government loans, the market
breathed a sigh of relief - then, you guessed it, moved lower.Here we go again.
The “bad bank” is this morning’s feel good story. The futures are higher on
“speculation” the government will set up a bad bank. The problem is a familiar
one for money managers - we do not know what the rules are and how the
"bad bank" will be set up. Will it be good for shareholders in banks?
Will it be bad for shareholders in banks? We are not sure because we have no
details on the latest bailout, only speculation and a few sound bites. The
basic goal of the bad bank according to this morning’s news reports is to
"get lending going again". In an overleveraged world, is more credit
really the answer? I thought too much credit was the problem…Previous,
what are they drinking, smoking, snorting on wall street with suckers’ bear
market rally on decisively bad news; viz., consumer confidence
at lowest level ever recorded (37.7) Consumer Confidence Slides to Record Low in January , 18%
plunge in home prices as per highly regarded Case/Shiller Index, Retail Federation
gives bad retail outlook, layoffs du jour galore, etc., and even as oil plunged
on the bad economic data, oil stocks rallied…riiiiight! What, they worry…hell
no…they work for wallstreet/government. They’ll still get their commissions on
the way down and maybe stick you with their over-priced dogs as well. Same
modus operandi as in January et seq, 2008 when they sucked in the suckers who
this time (fool you twice, shame on you) will deserve to be burned for wall
street commissions/ compensation/ bonuses’ sake as in the year just
passed. The lunatic wall street frauds’ desperation linked to their
substantial crimes and booty which must be disgorged through prosecution,
especially since none of the real problems (hundreds of trillions of
fraudulent/worthless securities, etc.- Analyst Andre Egleshion puts the amount
at $600+trillion) have been addressed much less solved; hence, virtually all problems remain and there is but an infinitesimally
small fraction of the capital and resources necessary to solve them thanks to
fraud, incompetence, lack of knowledge/ability, greed, etc., so great opportunity to SELL
INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME! Bank bailout could
cost $4 trillion CEO confidence plunges around the globe
Consumer mood at record lows, house prices
sag Corning slashes up to 4,900 jobs to cut
costs Moody's says could cut GE's triple-A
credit rating Target eliminates positions amid weak
sales Nation's economic mood darkens as more jobs vanish
S&P index shows plunge in November
home prices Yahoo posts higher profit but outlook
weak Yahoo suffers 4Q loss, but tops analyst views
IBM quietly cuts thousands of jobs
Economy in free fall in fourth
quarter Companies in U.S. to Slash More Jobs, Business Economists Say military spending is crippling
america Previously,
wall street
frauds’ nirvana (commissioning a large incline then decline then suckers’ bear
market rally into the close incline) at just a program loop, button push, mouse
click away based on bull s**t alone and ‘Little Shop of Horrors’ viz.,
wall street vegetables clamoring ‘feed me, feed me’ with hopes for taxpayer
bailout funds and short-covering bear market rally.. Motek’s experts: One land of fruits and nuts politician
too many for a business hour; there will be no further comments relative to
Frank Motek’s knx1070am caleefornia business hour inasmuch as the show has
become a bit too parochial and limited in scope. 68,000 new job cuts this day alone.
Existing home sales on foreclosures up 6.5% so new home sellers
rally…riiiight!...Preposterous!...Leading indicators allegedly up .3% on
increase in money supply (hyperinflationary)…Riiiiight! NY
financier arrested in purported $400 million scam Reuters
Job-killing depression racks up more
layoff victims Economy in free
fall in fourth quarter FANNIE to Seek
Up to $16 Billion in Emergency Treasury Aid to Stay Afloat... Gloom deepens as 75,000
global jobs go... Gold pushes
above $900 in buying spree; Yellow metal posts all-time highs in euro and
sterling... Economy in free
fall in fourth quarter Previous, mixed finish on relatively
light volume defies reality with another near 200 point swing to the upside on
suckers’ bear market rally into the close to keep suckers suckered on
decisively bad news so
sell into rallies/strength/take profits/sell while you still can since much,
much worse to come. Motek
experts: Art Hogan points to volatility, lots of headwinds for market,
magnitude of the worse than expected results, doubling underestimated earnings
to downside and no guidance indicative of lack of belief in efficacy of
stimulus, and lag effect concerning stimulus which will help but not soon
enough. Investment analyst says P/E ratios for stocks much too pricey, cite
S&P single digits in milder recessions past hence way over-valued at 15 P/E
now. GE profit
down 44 percent Earnings and depression batter world
stocks Britain officially slips into recession Schlumberger 4Q tumbles; sees rough year ahead
Harley to cut 1,100 jobs as 4Q profit falls
Xerox 4Q profit plunges, misses Wall Street view (AP)
2009 Heralds “A New Age Of Rebellion”
Geithner's failure to pay taxes completely intentional
Misguided Spending Will Only Take Us Deeper Into Depression
Poor earnings, opaque forecasts weigh
on stocks (AP) Freddie Mac to ask for billions more in
funds Freddie Mac to ask government for another
$30-$35 billion Brower Piven Encourages Investors Who Have Losses in Excess of $500,000
From Investment in Bank of America Corporation to Inquire About the Lead
Plaintiff Position in Securities Fraud Class Action Lawsuit Before the March
23, 2009 (Marketwire) Capital One results suggest gloomy 2009
for credit card industry Wall Street's culture of entitlement hard
to shake “The stock market has been bluffing investors for decades. The market's
indiscernible jolts have been particularly pronounced and painful in recent
months.” Simon Maierhofer“Unprecedented” Job Cuts in Works at World’s Largest Automaker
[video] Gold Surges VIDEO: THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS -
Montreal Lecture: The Great Depression of the 21st Century Motek experts: Discuss new unemployment
claims at 589,000 match 26 year high, 4.6 million continuing u.e. claims,
wall street strategist (actually just another wall street fraud) thain at last
minutes before BofA bailout/takeover does compensation/bonuses/expenditures and
gets axed, all-time low for housing starts with downsides well into 2010, job
losses trend to accelerate well into second half 2009. Analyst says near term
increased uncertainty, gamble, financials undercapitalized, recommends risk
adjusted/barely below investment grade junk bund funds (high ror) and gold
mining etf’s while warning long-term treasuries to take a hit. Reporter discusses
negative I.T./pc market, spending and job cuts and absence of forward-looking
guidance. Worsening signs for Apple with slowdown in pc sales and reliance on
retail/pricing. Currency expert says problems serious, gov’t needs to raise $2 trillion,
crowd out private sector, increase cost of money, fanny/freddy, government
replacing private mortgage lending with negative implications. Frank
congratulates Paul Kangus on Nightly Business Report 30 year anniversary where
he began his business reporting career. Just The Early
Stages of Economic and Financial Collapse Jobless claims
surge, housing starts tumble Back In Reds After
Economic Data... Bank results
plummet...
Angry customer
rammed bank with pickup... GOOGLE PROFIT SLIPS FOR FIRST
TIME...
MICROSOFT stuns
with profit miss, job cuts... Roubini:
Banking System is “Bankrupt”, “Effectively Insolvent” Previous, wall street
frauds’ nirvana (commissioning a huge decline then a huge incline) at just a
program loop, button push, mouse click away based on bull s**t alone and
‘Little (wall street) Shop of Horrors’ viz., wall street vegetables
clamoring ‘feed me, feed me’ with high (what are they smoking, drinking,
snorting) hopes for taxpayer bailout funds and short-covering bear market
rally. The lunatic wall street frauds’ desperation linked to their
substantial crimes and booty which must be disgorged through prosecution,
especially since none of the real problems (hundreds of trillions of
fraudulent/worthless securities, etc.) have been addressed much less solved;
hence, virtually all problems remain and there is but
an infinitesimally small fraction of the capital and resources necessary to solve
them thanks to fraud, incompetence, lack of knowledge/ability, greed, etc., so great opportunity to SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/TAKE
PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME. Motek’s
experts: Analyst/options/speculator talks roller coaster ride on wall street
regardless of results, banks still in trouble with dilution via government
takeovers, talks lessons…please, give us a break…, then risky strategies, ie.,
risky bonds into riskier equities as if that isn’t that how we got into the
continuing mess. Only-the-little-people-pay-taxes geithner, a co-architect of
the current mess said food lines long and getting longer even as he dodges
taxes (purposefully…after audit and as currently pending appointment, paid back
taxes but scofflawed time-barred taxes owed), while economist says geithner a
scofflaw and stimulus just more pork. Geithner was
“involved in just about every flawed bailout” of the Bush era (On capital hill
they were afraid to ask the question as to where is that missing $4
trillion at he ny federal reserve bank which is defacto complicity) Financial Times editor says dramatic prospective action
will be very unpleasant for shareholders. S&P 500 Q408 Earnings Now Expected to Fall 28.2% Royal Bank of Scotland to Record $41 Billion loss, State Street profits down 71%, Bad news across the
board as Worst Inauguration Day Drop in Dow Industrial History...
Roubini Predicts
U.S. Losses May Reach $3.6 Trillion Prominent
Economist: Crisis Caused By Government Interventions Motek’s
experts: Land
of fruits and nuts actor/entertainer/speculator/sometimes
economist Ben Stein [who previously took a page out of GM’s
playbook by lambasting Fortune Magazine (you might recall some two decades ago
that Fortune warned of GM managerial ineptitude to which GM responded with
outrage and withdrew all advertising and revenue to Fortune thereby in
retaliation - if only they had listened) for saying caleefornia is number 1,
numero uno ….. as prospectively worse real estate market in the nation, the
same Ben Stein who poo-pooed Peter Shiff’s correct prediction of market crash, but did correctly state fed policies
hyperinflationary, and also just criticized Shiff’s recent prognostication ( he
previously had to apologize to Shiff having done wrongly so before- his criticism of Peter Shiff for warning of this debacle
years ago). He throws out a couple of economic terms (demand
pull/cost push inflationary terms) to buttress his criticism of Shiff but he’s
just out to lunch in citing the absence of demand as militating against Shiff’s
inflationary argument since history (and even currently, i.e., zimbabwee) is
replete with examples of low demand and or impoverished nations that have
over-printed their currencies with hyperinflationary results as will occur in
u.s.). Stein should be on the Strip doing stand-up (comedy). He is a joke!] while
commenting on the inaugural address (who cares…what do you expect them to
say…all talk is cheap in fraudulent america particularly) says in need of
specifics, says because he can’t do taxes geithner doesn’t have to, talks gov’t
guarantees on loans except for fraud, bad banks/financials, no bottom. Analyst says things getting worse not better,
bad equity ratios, banks not sufficiently capitalized, unemployment/job losses
yet to hit so worst to come. Economist says recession/depression with 500,000 job losses per month,
housing/stock declines, bad bank bailouts with taxpayer money bad idea/bad
deal, hopes on stimulus. Peter
Shiff says they buy on rumor and sell on
fact/reality, TARP/government spending the problem, new lows for financials,
eventual dollar collapse, bailing out/subsidizing incompetent high paid
executives, get out of any assets connected to u.s., buy gold. Roubini Predicts
U.S. Losses May Reach $3.6 Trillion Bloomberg | U.S. financial losses from the credit crisis may
reach $3.6 trillion, suggesting the banking system is effectively insolvent. Prominent
Economist: Crisis Caused By Government Interventions Steve Watson | People who created the problem are now in charge. Previously,
a big suckers’ depression era rally of near 200 points into the close to keep
suckers sucked in while churning and earning those commission dollars on
decisively bad news (ie., circuit city liquidates/sheds 30,000 jobs, more job
cut announcements, manufacturing down 2%, cpi down .7% on lower gas/oil prices
but watch for inevitable hyperinflationary effect of worthless Weimar dollars
they’re printing like mad, Citigroup
-- after suffering a loss of $8.29 billion, its fifth straight quarterly
deficit -- is reorganizing into Citicorp and Citi Holdings—what a joke; first
will focus on traditional banking around the world, while the second will hold
the company's riskier assets and tougher-to-manage ventures; Bank of America
slides to 4Q loss; gets more ‘down the rabbit hole’ taxpayer money; how
pathetic, unemployment claims at 54,000 for week, 524,000 for prior
month, 4.5 million collecting unemployment/64% increase, foreclosures for
December up 17%/2nd worst on record and high for ordinarily slow December,
etc.), U.S. foreclosure filings in 2008 rose 81% from 2007 ,
the lunatic wall street frauds’ desperation linked to their
substantial crimes and booty which must be disgorged through prosecution,
especially since none of the real problems (hundreds of trillions of
fraudulent/worthless securities, etc.) have been addressed much less solved;
hence, virtually all problems remain and there is but
an infinitesimally small fraction of the capital and resources necessary to
solve them thanks to fraud, incompetence, lack of knowledge/ability, greed,
etc., so SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL WHILE YOU STILL CAN
SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME. Retail sales much worse than expected -2.7% and double (100%
worse) expected decline with financial sector usual suspects providing other
dose of bad news, along with beige book which cites weakness in all districts.
Job cuts, job cuts, job cuts, and Jobs cut work schedule with medical leave
till June, 2009. Oil inventories up however since economy is so bad demand has
substantially weakened. What usually either way would have derailed prospective nominees in
past, viz., illegal nannies, failure to pay taxes, etc., has rallied defense of
geithner TAX MESS: Panel delays hearing
on Obama's Treasury choice... , the new york fed man ( Fed
Mob Boss Geithner’s Confirmation Sidelined - too n.y. jewish to fail or be held
accountable, in fairness there’s also trump and alito, and bush and clinton,
etc., all of whom seem impervious to the laws and rules of civilized
governance; owe, oh! how the mighty have fallen, including meaningfully lawless
america). Given the state of the nation, who can rationally defend those
experienced with having caused the crisis in the first instance (there is the
matter of course of campaign finance bribery). HOW ABOUT ASKING GEITHNER ABOUT THE MISSING $4 TRILLION AT
N.Y. FED BANK, WHO STOLE IT, ETC., AS A PRE-CONDITION TO HIM EVEN BEING
CONSIDERED! THROW THEM, THE FED, WALL STREET FRAUDS, ETC., IN GITMO; THEY’RE
CERTAINLY ECONOMIC TERRORISTS, FRAUDS, THIEVES WHO’VE DONE FAR GREATER DAMAGE
TO AMERICA THAN ALL AMERICA’S ENEMIES COMBINED. Typical wall street jew madoff will just have to
suffer his bail days in his $7.5 million n.y. penthouse apartment. $700-Billion
Bailout Lacks Transparency, Accountability, Congressional Panel Says Motek’s
(Frank still out but returns on Monday, but will his program still be there
after decimating week) experts: Senile Wedbush from the land of fruits and nuts
to his credit refers to the extent financial scenario by the “D” for Depression
word (he very well may have been around to have experienced the first Great
Depression) and borrows refrain from old Springfield song of ‘ Wishin’ and
Hopin’ ’…riiiight…Start your own company, ie., apple stands (candy, caramel, or
plain); land of fruits and nuts better stick with a taco or tamale stand; hot
dog stands…riiiiight! (Previous) Hugh Johnson says earnings recession and lots
of going out of business signs. Retail analyst says lots of bankruptcy filings
and store closures particularly in select regional/female apparel/jewelry. Hugh
Johnson, analyst, says Alcoa much worse than expected a wake up call, earnings
below expectations, widespread downturn but much more difficult to forecast
than ever (welcomed obfuscation so they can talk the talk and sucker you), oil
speculators still in play, bailouts old news but enormous deficits/problems
therefrom. Investors Business Daily editor, spend and cut taxes, TARP money not
enough, $485.2 record deficit, deficits will continue to grow, will catch up to
u.s., long term better…riiiiight…how ‘bout in long term as per keynes
we’ll all be dead…if you’d have listened to equities oriented IBD you’d
probably be broke by now even if you were as they seem to presume a
trader. Analyst Gabriel Isdumb says eventually things will be
better…yeah…riiiiight!…right after the depression has run it’s course. Autonation
expert says the worst conditions he’s ever seen
which he further describes as appalling. All news bad and worse than expected
(ie., Alcoa, Citi which received $45 billion in bailout funds and lost $20
billion, etc.). Former chief economist: U.S. in a depression The U.S. Economy is being Marched
to the Gallows Andrew Hughes | Predictions of hyperinflation, dollar decline and
civil unrest. No Brainer: Bankster Bailout is
Unconstitutional Kurt Nimmo | A world system of financial control in private
hands will begin the process of delivering feudalism to the American people. The Economy Is in a Depression The economy
contracted at about a 5% annual rate in the fourth quarter. Bank of America to receive
additional $20 billion International Herald Tribune | The second lifeline brings the government’s total
stake in Bank of America to $45 billion and makes it the bank’s largest
shareholder, with a stake of about 6 percent. Counterfeiting? Bank of England
able to print money without having legally to declare it Bank of America to Get Billions More From Treasury Washington Post | The Treasury Department plans to invest billions
of dollars in Bank of America to help the company absorb troubled investment
bank Merrill Lynch. Citigroup -- after suffering a
loss of $8.29 billion, its fifth straight quarterly deficit -- is reorganizing
into Citicorp and Citi Holdings. The first will focus on traditional banking
around the world, while the second will hold the company's riskier assets and
tougher-to-manage ventures. Bank of America slides to 4Q loss; gets more ‘down
the rabbit hole’ taxpayer money. Bernanke: U.S. Financial Crisis Worse than Japan’s Lost
Decade, but We’ll Still Copy the Japanese Playbook, Even Though It Didn’t Work Nortel files for bankruptcy, shares
plunge , (Reuters) $700-Billion Bailout Lacks
Transparency, Accountability, Congressional Panel Says U.S. Retail Sales Decline for
a Sixth Month Dismal holidays over, but retail
outlook still dim , CITIGROUP Stock Falls Below Critical $5 Level... 'Long-term transformation'...
'Swift decline in
America's influence'... Stocks tumble as worries grow
about banks... JPMorgan CEO predicts bleak year:
report (Reuters) JPMorgan's
chief executive predicts that the financial crisis will worsen this year, in an
interview with the Financial Times newspaper published on Thursday. Sen Dorgan: Federal Reserve Refuses To Identify Recipients
Of 2 Trillion In Emergency Loans Throw them, the fed, in
gitmo; they’re certainly economic terrorists, frauds, thieves who’ve done far
greater damage to america than all america’s enemies combined. Our
Collapsing Economy According to the Bureau of Labor
Statistics, nonfarm payroll employment declined by 3,445,000 from December 2007
through December 2008. Marc
Faber: “I Think it Might Be Far Worse [Than the Great Depression] Precisely Because
of the Interventions” by the Government The latest edition of Marc
Faber’s latest newsletter fell off two separate trucks in my ‘hood, and I
thought the most useful bits were Faber’s observations (honed from many years
of seeing the world from Asia) that just because a market has gone down a ton
doesn’t mean it can’t go down a great deal further. U.S. Economy May Shrink 1.5% in 2009 as Depression Stymies
Fed Economists slashed forecasts for U.S. growth in 2009 and
projected Federal Reserve policy makers won’t be able to start raising interest
rates until 2010, according to a monthly Bloomberg News survey Treasury: Deficit
hits new record in just 3 months... TREASURY PICK
FAILED TO PAY TAXES Bond
Bubble Looms ‘The key here is to
stay the course and not to be sucked into the hype; don’t let your eyes deceive
you. Printing money non-stop for a year (or longer, I don’t see him stopping
any time soon) will have consequences (meaning
hyperinflation/worthless dollar, etc.).’ Those commerce
department job numbers in prior months revised upwards (I warned of the falsity
of same even as wall street frauds rallied on the false data). 2.6 million
jobs lost in 2008, worst since 1945. Motek’s experts:
Financial analyst says treasuries at 0%, money markets near 0%, so seek
companies with pristine balance sheets and dividends, negative doldrums as
market (irrationally) shrugs off bad news, no magic wand from new president,
cross your fingers and hope…..riiiiight! Economist discusses jobs report, says
lagging indicator and rough time, savings up but spending down, weakness
through at least first quarter of 2010, lots of pain ahead, real estate prices
continue decline through coming year, -20% to –25% with land of fruits
and nuts in worst case scenario. Another economist also discusses continued
declines for real estate with land of fruits and nuts in worst case camp,
foreclosures a lot higher with peak at 20%, and cites (probable) decade long
stagnation as Japan in ‘90’s. US Debt is really 53 Trillion. Can you say Dollar Collapse
then Massive Hyperinflation Coming? Roubini
Joins Faber and Rogers in Saying Bubble in Treasuries Will Likely Burst Now the U.S. porn industry seeks $5billion bailout
Citi, Morgan Stanley in brokerage talks;
Rubin quits $$] Rubin Departs Citi on a Low Note
(at The Wall Street Journal Online) Agency warns on automakers' pension
funds: report Jobless rate at 16-year high as payrolls plunge
Job losses hit 2.6 million as layoff pain
deepens Wall Street falls on job woes, Citi
Stocks slide after rise in unemployment rate (AP)
Manufacturing slumps at fastest pace since 1981 More people collecting
unemployment benefits Depression more severe than thought: Fed’s Rosengren Horrible
data and again worse than expected but suckers’ bear market rally into the
close based on bull s**t and bailouts (with money they don’t have) provides
excuse for irrational exuberance and mixed close. Weak retail and
unemployment at 26 year high.Motek’s experts: Analyst points to
dire warnings across the board while real estate/housing/building analyst says
2009 will be bad year with 20% declines in real estate values as unemployment
goes higher while another real estate analyst says not a good time to buy a home. U.S. companies
face $409 billion pension deficit: study U.S. debt is losing its appeal
in China LET'S PRINT MORE WORTHLESS
MONEY! Obama Bets Big on
Big Government... Dems Raise
Doubts on Plan... A
worse-than-expected ADP employment report indicated 693,000 jobs were lost in
December far above the expected 493,000 and a warning from Intel (INTC 14.44, -0.93) underpinned early
weakness with typical suckers’ rally into the close to finish off lows. Motek’s experts: Analyst says first 5
days of trading in January, 2009 historically a bad sign, gloomy employment
scenario with 693,000 jobs lost in December, economic contraction in major way
coupled with poor earnings, 1.2 trillion budget deficit at 6.8% of GDP or worse
so tough to make bull case, defensive position, low allocation to equities with
high capitalization/consumer staples. Oil analyst points to weak economy/jobs
data, absence of leveraged money chasing oil and says $60 oil soon. Economist,
part of the corrupt fed team discusses job losses. Final expert discusses
demographic trends behind and causative of cycles as 1929, 1968, and now, baby
boomers, bleak outlook, economically shot their wad in terms of ability to
avoid depression. Analyst
Predicts 40% Unemployment, No Recovery until 2015 Bear rally over, the great dying begins in corporate
America Wall Street
falls sharply on employment realities, realistically bleak corporate outlooks Budget deficit to hit $1.2 trillion in
fiscal 2009 Intel warns second time on quarter
U.S. says Madoff sent diamonds in
violation of bail Profit warnings, poor job outlook weigh on stocks
(AP) Yes, fed now using the ‘D’ for
depression word which means we’re in a depression (after all, they were saying
no recession when we were already in one). What are they still
drinking, smoking, snorting on wall street with suckers’ bear market rally into
the close. They’ll still get their commissions on the way down and maybe stick
you with their over-priced dogs as well. Same modus operandi as in January et
seq, 2008 when they sucked in the suckers who this time (fool you twice, shame
on you) will deserve to be burned for wall street commissions/compensation/
bonuses’ sake as in the year just passed. Service sector (90% of american
economy, viz., bull s**t),
factory orders, pending home sales down (worst on record) and much worse than
expected. Some
reality: After a short modest rally in the stock markets, lasting at best
if at all, 1 to 4 months after Obama is inaugurated as President, people will
realize that Obama’s stimulus plan isn’t going to work. Specifically, it will
become obvious that we’re in a Great Depression, and that nothing that Bushco
or Obamaco did can get us out of it (it may take a while longer for people to
realize that what both administrations did actually made the financial crisis
much worse). At that point, the stock market
will crash like a waterfall. Mish thinks the crash will leave the S&P at 600.
Robert McHugh thinks the crash will drive the S&P to 500 or
lower (in McHugh’s worst-case scenario, the S&P could end up at 50). At
around the time of the crash, the bubble in long-term treasuries will burst.
Retirees and other people who have socked away their money in treasuries will
get hit hard. The government itself will start massively buying its own
long-term treasuries. Motek’s experts: Art
Hogan in straight-shootin’ mode (as opposed to wall street shill mode) focuses
(but only briefly) on fed’s depression/deflation words, says quite correctly
that the focus has been on the cure (ie., bailouts) rather than the illness,
lots of badnews, dismal earnings, etc., only slightly better at best in second
half (I don’t think so), stay away from consumer discretionary cos., metals
higher, market may be higher at year end (not likely), but rocky road till then
(and beyond). Financial times editor says shocked by fed’s 0% move, very scary scenario,
the specter of depression/deflation looms large, much too much optimism over
Obama prospective stimulus plan. Economy in grip of recession/depression, reports show
Stocks
end higher on hopes for economic rebound Alcoa to cut 13 pct of global work force
The Secular Bear Market Continues Willem
Buiter warns of massive dollar collapse Bank Of England Policymaker Predicts Unprecedented Dollar
Collapse Car
sales plunge heralding bleak 2009 but car stocks rally; construction
numbers down but building stocks rally. Will We Have a Good 2009? Not If History Is Any Guide Stocks slip on telecom and financials; Apple jumps on
‘jobs alive’ news…riiiiight! Obama
plunges into econ talks, borrows a page from bush economic strategy of spending
money you don’t have and cutting taxes, and predicts approval Consumer bankruptcies jumped 33% in
2008 and much worse expected in 2009 including commercial bankruptcies far
greater and larger than in 2008
[$$] Don't Get Too Happy About the New Year Check This Graph-Proof we are going into a Great
Depression. Notice MASSIVE job losses. Is there really any doubt any longer?
The Economist, a Widely Respected and Authoritative
Financial/Economic Publication: U.S. In Depression, Not Recession Don’t
forget their 2008 talk as now for 2009. The lunatic wall street frauds’ desperation linked to their
substantial crimes and booty which must be disgorged through prosecution,
especially since none of the real problems (hundreds of trillions of
fraudulent/worthless securities, etc.) have been addressed much less solved;
hence, virtually all problems remain and there is but
an infinitesimally small fraction of the capital and resources necessary to
solve them thanks to fraud, incompetence, lack of knowledge/ability, greed,
etc., so great opportunity to SELL
INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME. More dismal news for lunatics on
wall street to fraud on: ISM factory utilization index fell to the lowest level
in over 28 years. Factories
mired in worst slump in 28 years
They’re printing worthless Weimar dollars like mad for the celebrated bailouts,
bailouts, bailouts, and stimulus so stimulating. Motek’s experts: First expert
talks up superstition, the so called ‘january effect’ saying if positive this
month then the worst case scenario is –5% for DOW/S&P for the year, so the
frauds on wall street are really shootin’ for the moon (lunatics) for the
effect, still in recession but bear market rallies not bad but not for buy and
hold crowd, dump non-performers, favors medical devices/health care related,
disfavors autos/financials. Another expert who scans/digests newsletters says
market/newsletter euphoria contra-indicated, new lows are coming, the best
funds in 2008 were short or cash. News
typically bad: Difficulty tracking and monitoring bailout money…Daaaaah!
Understated unemployment numbers still at recession/depression levels (4.65
million); retail correction-bankruptcies, closings, fewer stores. Motek’s experts: Peter Shiff says it’s not the disease but
the government cure that will kill us, dire forecast for 2009 and
beyond-inflation, companies going out of business, commodity prices higher,
world’s largest debtor america is bankrupt, more borrowing/spending their
failed prescription, bleak picture for dollar the value of which will be halved
and high probability that the decline will be 70-90%, gold higher and $2000
gold in not so distant future, oil much higher and $200 oil in next couple of
years, stocks will continue to decline, on the long side he favors quality EU,
Asia securities and precious metals particularly monetary metals gold, silver. Oil analyst says oil too cheap, geopolitical factors,
(israel war mongering, war crimes, etc.; Russia/Ukraine dispute-cut gas
supplies affecting Europe), oil to $60-70 rather quickly, gasoline demand
anemic but oil price the factor. It’s time
for ben stein to resign himself to just a land of fruits and nuts
actor/entertainer/speculator as he lambasts Shiff’s prognostication ( he
previously had to apologize to Shiff having done wrongly so before- his
criticism of Peter Shiff for warning of this debacle years ago). He throws
out a couple of economic terms (demand pull/cost push inflationary terms) to
buttress his criticism of Shiff but he’s just out to lunch in citing the
absence of demand as militating against Shiff’s inflationary argument since
history (and even currently, i.e., zimbabwee) is replete with examples of low
demand and or impoverished nations that have over-printed their currencies with
hyperinflationary results as will occur in u.s.). Stein should be on the Strip
doing stand-up (comedy). He is a joke! Suckers' bear
market rally into the close to keep the suckers suckered on NEWS MUCH WORSE
THAN ALREADY DISMAL EXPECTATIONS ACROSS THE BOARD: S&P/Case-Shiller Composite Index,
October home prices were down 18% year-over-year, the largest drop on record.
According to the U.S. Conference Board, consumer confidence dropped more than
expected to an all-time low in December AT 38%. Record number of bankruptcies
and particulary hard hit commercial sector in coming year, ie., malls, retail,
etc.. Worse stock market declines for the year since 1931 (Great Depression)
and worse to come in 2009 despite suckers’ bear market rallies to keep you
sucked in. Put these wall street frauds in jail and force disgorgement of their
fraudulent gains. There are loads of able new grads and job seekers who can
take the place of the wall street frauds who caused the crisis owing to their
own avarice and continue the coverup to get taxpayer bailout funds. The markets
should be efficient and predicated on rational valuation which is totally
absent in america’s fraudulent, manipulated markets. Absent prosecution and
disgorgement in these ongoing multi-trillion dollar fraud schemes (new ponzi
scheme uncovered in addition to madoff, which are just tips of the iceberg of multi-trillion
dollar frauds), america will not be worth the paper the worthless Weimar
dollars and worthless securities denominated in same are printed on.
Non-Motek expert: markets to fall into 2010 or worse case, later. Motek experts: They discuss dismal
news, for year DOW-35%, NASDAQ-42%, S&P-40%, $7-10 trillion in wealth
destroyed, second-half inflation from printing worthless Weimar
dollars/stagflation; another expert, consumer has collapsed, 2009 will be very
tough year for autos; a real estate analyst says 2009 will be a very tough year
and hopefully we’ll get through this…..riiiiight!…I don’t think so…Almost
one in 10 Floridians are on food stamps Online
holiday sales fall 3 percent
Madoff liquidation trustee receives $28M for costs (AP) Charlotte, NC, home values post record decline (AP)
Wrong Great Depression Lessons Will Haunt Equities in 2009 73,000
retailers to close in first half of 2009, Stocks Rally Bloomberg | U.S. retailers face a wave of store closings, bankruptcies and
takeovers starting next month as holiday sales are shaping up to be the worst
in 40 years There’s No
Pain-Free Cure for Recession/Depression Schiff: Government Interference Only Makes The Problem
Worse Paul Joseph Watson | Establishment talking heads still pushing useless
and destructive bailout. A
Ponzi Scheme Within A Ponzi Scheme Bob Chapman | Dwarfing the Madoff Ponzi scheme is the Social
Security Ponzi scheme that has been looted (the iou’s) and is hopelessly
insolvent. This on top of previous suckers' bear market rally into
the close with 100+ point swing to the upside to keep the suckers suckered.
Time for prosecutions of and disgorgement of ill-gotten multi-trillion dollar
gains from the frauds on wall street; madoff is just the tip of the iceberg; all news
decisively bad and worse than even dismal expectations except that the frauds
on wall street continue their familiar suckers cheer for bailouts, bailouts, bailouts
so SELL INTO STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL! Motek
experts: At best, bear market rally, his accounts 20-25% cash, can make bearish
argument since still looking at writeoffs, government still must sell bonds to
help finance bailouts, municipal bonds troublesome as iou’s might extend
maturities, don’t try to catch falling knife in this market but some high
quality bonds may offer value, dollar to take hit (they’re printing worthless
weimar dollars like mad-hyper-inflationary); Oil expert says overshot to downside
and will see turn-around in oil; U.N. Security Council condemns massacre by
zionist israel. Pros Say:
Employment Collapse is Coming Holiday Sales Slump to Force U.S. Store Closings,
Bankruptcies Manufacturing,
Home Prices Sank: U.S. Economy Preview Holiday Sales Tumble as US Consumers Reduce Luxury
Purchases Bleak
economic picture emerges from new data Retail Sales Plummet Holiday Sales Tumble as US Consumers Reduce Luxury
Purchases Bleak economic picture emerges from new data The frauds on wall street say they are
entitled to the obligatory santa claus rally and attempt to keep you suckered
in for their commissions sake with small gains on bull s**t/fraud alone in
holiday shortened light trading, but reality says every day the market’s above
2,000-5,000 on the DOW, 1,000-1,300 on the NASDAQ, and 500-600 on the S&P
is a ‘santa clause rally, so SELL INTO STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL as all news
decisively bad and worse than even dismal expectations except that the frauds
on wall street continue their familiar suckers cheer for bailouts, bailouts,
bailouts, with ephemeral short-covering to lock in year-end gains for window
dressing and much, much worse to come. Unemployment up more
than expected at 26 year high and consumer spending down for fifth month in
a row. In their typically corrupt way, scandal-scarred commerce department
provides fake data for b.s. talking points far better than private economist
estimates but still decline of 1% in durable goods new orders. Oil's slide came in the face of a surprise
inventory draw, which suggests stronger-than-expected demand for the commodity
as Department of Energy reported that oil inventories for the week ending Dec.
19 decreased by 3.10 million barrels. Analyst:
One Third Of Banks To Collapse In 2009 U.S. Economy: Home Prices Fall At Depression Pace Recession/depression
deepens, countries boost spending Previously,
just modest losses relative to reality so SELL INTO
STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL as all news decisively bad and worse than
even dismal expectations except that the frauds on wall street continue their
familiar suckers cheer for bailouts, bailouts, bailouts, with much, much worse
to come. Existing
home sales plunged to a rate of 4.49 million last month, down 8.6 percent from
October, and worse than economists predicted. Total sales, not calculated as an
annual rate, fell 17 percent in November from a year earlier to 322,000, sales
of newly built homes fell 2.9 percent from October to a pace of 407,000 units,
the slowest rate in nearly 18 years. Madoff investor found dead of suicide.
Standard & Poor's lowered the unsecured debt rating of General Motors (GM 3.01, -0.51) to C from CC, even
though the government plans to provide GM with financing and Moody's lowered Ford's (F 2.19, -0.40) credit rating to Caa3.
Final third quarter GDP data showed economy contracted at an annualized rate of
0.5%, unchanged from the prior reading though personal consumption component
was down 3.8%. Motek’s experts: actor/speculator/entertainer/sometimes
economist Ben Stein takes a page out of GM’s playbook by lambasting Fortune
Magazine (you might recall some two decades ago that Fortune warned of GM
managerial ineptitude to which GM responded with outrage and withdrew all
advertising and revenue to Fortune thereby in retaliation - if only they had
listened) for saying caleefornia is number 1, numero uno ….. as prospectively
worse real estate market in the nation, the same Ben Stein who poo-pooed Peter
Shiff’s correct prediction of market crash, but does correctly state fed policies
hyperinflationary; LA economist jumps on the Ben Stein out-to-lunch bandwagon
and says only 10%, not 25% (as consensus predicts), decline for
caleefornia…..riiiiight…..take that to the bank; broad donates to MOCA; show
biz expert- strike fear; and Shreve of IBD flips yet again-if only we were all
traders…but if you had followed his every whim, only the frauds on wall street
would have made out with substantial commissions in the ups/downs. IMF warns of Great
Depression 100% chance of depression in US Depression
Hits Detroit: Average home price $18,513 - Unemployment rate 21% U.S. Home Resales Fall; Prices Drop by Record 13.2%
Congressman: “If We’re Not Very Lucky Or If We Don’t Do
Everything Right, We Could Easily Have A Ten- Or Fifteen-Year Depression”
World
faces “total” financial meltdown: Bank of Spain chief Previous suckers bear market rally
into the close with 150 point swing to the upside based on bull s**t and fraud
in the inducement alone to keep the suckers sucked in and commission dollars
flowing for modest losses relative to reality so SELL INTO
STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL as all news decisively bad and worse than
even dismal expectations except that the frauds on wall street do their
familiar suckers cheer for bailouts, bailouts, bailouts, with much, much worse
to come. Motek’s experts:Economist says
economy in full-out recession, aggregate demand down across the board, abusers
are not lubrication for economy so should not get bailout, another 25% down for
real estate prices as foreclosures also will continue but lower prices will
eventually stimulate demand, fed focused now on long-rates, cites
housing/finance/consumer debacles and no recovery till at least into 2010 at
best (I don’t think so); oil expert says contract now February delivery on
expiration of January contract and flood of selling on expiring contract
temporarily depressed prices, oil more expensive in future, discusses boom/bust
cycle (we’re in the bust part); another cites high redefault rate on modified
mortgages and more foreclosures; auto analyst points to Toyota showing first
loss since 1941 inception, global downturn with no nation spared, reckoning for
15-20 years of bad decision-making, 2009 very grim, 2010 at best for even
minimal improvement (I don’t think so); Online e-commerce expert cites first
flat to down year of online retail sales growth; downgrades GM, american
Express, Ford, etc.. World
faces “total” financial meltdown: Bank of Spain chief Housing
crisis worsens as economy weakens Japan recession deepens, China cuts rates
Great Recession/Depression of 2008, et seq., Worse Than All
Others AP Impact: Wall Street still flying
corporate jets; indeed, with all the bashing of auto rank and file employee
pay, the reality is that american executives, among the least able, least
talented in the world, along with fraudulent wall street are grossly overpaid
and far exceeding that of their far more able foreign counterparts (AP) Where'd the bailout money go? Shhhh, it's a secret (AP) Housing
crisis worsens as economy weakens
Ratings Agencies Play Reality With Multiple Downgrades in
Banking Sector (at Seeking Alpha) Previous
mixed to modest losses relative to reality so sell into strength/take
profits/sell as all news decisively bad and worse than even dismal expectations
except that the frauds on wall street do their familiar suckers cheer for
bailouts, bailouts, bailouts. Motek’s analyst/options expert predicts
controlled bankruptcy for at least GM (maybe more), cites Fitch downgrade of
GM’s credit/default rating and says GM within weeks of default. Oil analyst
cites recession, week demand, over-supply also stating storage facilities full
and resorting to offshore tankers to store excess oil. Media analyst says
economic model for newspaper/media business broken. Rogers: The Incompetent Senile and Vegetables Have Turned A
Recession Into A Depression He Saw the Crash Coming: What Gary Shilling Sees for
2009 Yes, Shilling’s using
the d for depression word so If video unavailable, here for avi rendering SCROOGE
BIDEN: ECONOMY IS 'ABSOLUTELY TANKING' Previously,
recession/depression level 554,000 new unemployment claims (I’m sure in
reality, far worse but still bad) pre-Christmas so wait till the post-Christmas
numbers are out – nowhere to hide those but they’ll try. Motek
scraping bottom of barrel for second day in a row and comes up with another
land-of-fruits-and-nuts man, the senile wedbush who discusses his comrade
madeoff with other peoples money, poo-poos the purported amount, says market
not doing badly considering the dismal news (at least he is lucid enough to
realize dismal - market should be between 2,000 to 5,000 on the DOW, 500-600 on
S&P, 1,100 to 1,300 on NASDAQ based upon the dismal but real and probably
far worse than reported data) and points to auto scenario, oil plunge, and
madoff fraud for doldrums. Oil analyst says pressure on commodities generally,
liquidation on expiration of January (2009) oil contracts and liquidation of
positions, but February (2009) contracts back to $40+ rather quickly, and
points to decreased current and prospective refinery capacity on thin to low
margins. A Most
Desperate Move by the Fed Dollar’s Slump Erases Months Of Solid Gains “The Biggest Bubble Of All . . . U.S. Government Debt” Video:
Crash Will be Worse than Great Depression Editorial: What ails global financial system ‘The $50 billion investment fraud to which
the respected New York financier and former NASDAQ Chairman Bernard L. Madoff
has allegedly confessed, may prove to be the paradigm for all that has gone
wrong with the international financial system. It points up the greed,
incompetence and woeful wishful thinking that have all combined to produce
economic meltdown and plunge the world into recession. Most staggering is the
stupidity of both regulators (and government corruption/venality vis-ŕ-vis wall
street) and professional investors in failing to spot that for at least a
decade, at the heart of his hedge fund operations, Madoff was running a pyramid
scheme. This relied on new investment funds to pay out market-beating returns
to existing investors…..’ THIS IS
WALL STREET EVERY DAY WITH THEIR EATING AWAY AT OTHER PEOPLES MONEY TO THE TUNE
OF HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS A DAY (BILLIONS A YEAR AND NOW BILLIONS IN
TAXPAYER BAILOUT FUNDS FOR THEIR FRAUD) BASED ON NOTHING BUT BULL S**T AND
FRAUD! U.S.
Records Huge Current Account Deficit Fed unleashes
greatest bubble of all Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper believes a
depression is COMING Peter
Schiff new VIDEO on the Coming Collapse Dec 16 Swiss gold bullion in huge demand as trust in banks dives
Goldmine
Sachs: Bank’s bonuses cut to a ‘mere’ Ł142,000 EACH Investment bank
/taxpayer bailout funds recipient Goldman Sachs is to pay Ł4.3billion in
bonuses to its City workers. Dollar Falls Most Against Euro Since 1999 Debut on Fed’s
Rate Dollar Declines to 13-Year Low Against Yen After Fed Rate
Cut Federal
spending soars 25% -- even before bailout... Previous, building permits declining 15.6% to a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 616,000 (below the consensus of 700,000), housing starts data for
November declined 18.9% from the prior month to an annualized rate of 625,000
units, which was below the consensus of 736,000 and are 47% below the year-ago
level, fed desperation (they don’t know what they’re doing – remember their pronouncement
-no recession- when we were already in one), Weimar dollar down sharply, Federal Reserve sets stage for Weimar-style
Hyperinflation , etc., so sell
into these suckers bear market rallies/strength/take profits while you can
since much, much worse to come. Economist Brusca “the economy is sinking fast”, FOMC states that “data indicate deteriorating labor conditions and
declining consumer spending, business investment, and industrial production,
and the outlook for economic activity has weakened further”, F. William Engdahl “The US economy is in a depression free-fall of a
scale not seen since the 1930’s”, Kellner cites
‘helicopter ben’ (bernanke), BILLIONS
VANISH IN EPIC HEDGE FUND FRAUD Downturn Spurs “Survival Panic” for Some in the U.S. Motek
Experts: Art Hogan more realistically candid than
usual cites all bad news, very difficult times, near term lows but no recovery
for economy, hope is that second half of 2009 is better than first half (NOT!),
cites lost decade in Japan with 0% interest rates, negative growth through
fourth quarter 2009, longest recession (depression) in modern times, market
hopefully better in second half of 2009 anticipating better 2010 (NOT!),
bottoming of energy/commodities, worth looking at consumer goods/staples
focused on what you need versus what you want; economist points to bankruptcies
up, housing starts down; Zandi of Moody’s
says not getting better but worse, most credit card holders will not benefit
from rate cut; currency expert says interest
rate cuts increasingly irrelevant, fed buying bonds driving asset prices higher
and displacing private sector with prospectively negative results; and
finally, Peter Shiff cites fed action as irresponsible, destroying value of
money, bear market, money not worth anything, negates any rise in paper
dollar-denominated securities (SELL), says buy gold because of u.s.
hyperinflation. Previous, news worse than bad and to get much worse but full
moon manifest on lunatic asylum for the criminally insane wall street. More banks reveal Madoff exposure The
‘while you can’ part of sell/take profits manifests and will worsen Citadel suspends redemptions from two
hedge funds Stupidity not limited to u.s. where fraud is
rampant Geneva banks lost more than $4 billon
to Madoff: report This modest retreat and previous suckers
bearmarket rally on bull s**t alone with familiar mantra still ringing today;
viz., everything but the facts: forget the layoffs Coming soon to U.S., 1 million jobs lost every month: Report , forget the foreclosures Foreclosure
Storm Will Hit US in 2009 as Loan Changes Fail Bloomberg
, forget declining retail sales Retail
sales post big drop in November , forget the $1 trillion
record budget deficit , trade deficits, worthless fraudulent securities, lower
earnings/guidance/outlook, the topic (b.s. talking point) de jour for the
lunatic (yes, full moon) frauds on wall street is bailouts, bailouts, bailouts
(not to mention there’s no real money to pay for same – print/create more
worthless Weimar dollars – hyperinflationary Federal Reserve sets stage for Weimar-style
Hyperinflation – even now despite fake reports and worse
to come), and from well respected wall street fraud madoff, "it's all just
one big lie" and that it was "basically, a giant Ponzi scheme,"
which is fraudulent wall street in a nutshell. Madoff fraud case raises questions
about SEC (AP) and even bigger questions about fraudulent
wall street and their washingtonian/federal/state facilitators. Builders sentiment reading at 9 (anything less than 50 is
negative/pessimistic). Motek’s legal expert
correctly points to funds problems with meeting redemptions and paraphrases
J.P. Morgan’s immortal words concerning investing by saying as is particularly
relevant now, It’s not return on investment, but return of investment (that
really counts). Banks hit worldwide by US 'fraud'
. How are these frauds not being
prosecuted and forced disgorgement and preposterously getting taxpayer dollars?
Prosecute and throw them in jail and make them cough up their stolen
multi-billion spoils. Not just super rich caught up in $50B Madoff case
. The previous suckers bear market rally
was/is based on bull s**t alone; namely, now it’s the prospective
bailouts/spending programs with money that does not really exist (print/create
more, borrow more, etc.). 1) Keynesian economics (government stimulus)
does not work when a defacto bankrupt nation becomes more bankrupt to bailout
frauds/perpetrators/creators of the problem and to create make-shift purported
infrastructure jobs to enhance consumption 2) Inherent structural problems,
i.e., trade/budget deficits will continue unabated and in the case of the
latter, substantially increase – deeper hole 3) While spending on
infrastructure is warranted, there is no productive enhancement in economic
terms as in less modern times when, i.e., national highway system, etc.,
enhanced GDP growth and productivity. US Depression Likely -The Truth Is Here , Coming soon to U.S., 1 million jobs lost every month: Report , America Has No Means to Recover from a Depression FARRELL’S 15 GHOSTS OF WALLSTREET/ECONOMIC
PAST/PRESENT/FUTURE Home values to lose well over $2 trillion during 2008: Zillow
Homes in the United States have lost trillions of dollars in
value during 2008, with nearly 11.7 million American households now owing more
on their mortgage than their homes are worth, real estate website Zillow.com
said on Monday. (Remember: more contrived wasteful
commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which MUST
be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same
especially since only AN EXTREMELY Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A
Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital via, ie., ipo’S), The Rest Is
Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via
'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades). Moreover, the ballooning taxpayer bailout funds for the
perpetrators of the massive securities fraud are actually going toward
multibillion dollar bonus/compensation packages.
. How are these frauds not being prosecuted and forced disgorgement
and preposterously getting taxpayer dollars? The lunatic wall street
frauds’ desperation linked to their substantial crimes and booty which must be
disgorged through prosecution, especially since none of the real problems
(hundreds of trillions of fraudulent/worthless securities, etc.) have been
addressed much less solved; hence, virtually all
problems remain and there is but an infinitesimally small fraction of the
capital and resources necessary to solve them thanks to fraud, incompetence,
lack of knowledge/ability, greed, etc., so
SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH
WORSE TO COME. Renowned economist Mikhail Khazin : U.S. will soon face
second “Great Depression” , IT’S A DEPRESSION , Grantham (who called the bubble) posits…
585 on the S&P 500 (versus today's frothy 879) There is more
hurt in store for the U.S. equity markets. If you are still thinking of riding
this one out, consider Japan. Japan's Nikkei 225 is our window into the future.
From its 1990 high of 40,000 it fell as low as 7,800, an 80% drop. A similar
correction in the U.S. would translate into Dow 2,500. , Billion-Dollar
Fund Manager; Gold To Hit $2,000, Dow To Sink To 5,000 BILLIONS
VANISH IN EPIC HEDGE FUND FRAUD All news worse than bad and to get much
worse but full moon manifest on lunatic asylum for the criminally insane wall
street. More banks reveal Madoff exposure The
‘while you can’ part of sell/take profits manifests and will worsen Citadel suspends redemptions from two
hedge funds Stupidity not limited to u.s. where fraud is
rampant Geneva banks lost more than $4 billon
to Madoff: report This modest retreat and previous suckers
bearmarket rally on bull s**t alone with familiar mantra still ringing today;
viz., everything but the facts: forget the layoffs Coming soon to U.S., 1 million jobs lost every month: Report , forget the foreclosures Foreclosure
Storm Will Hit US in 2009 as Loan Changes Fail Bloomberg
, forget declining retail sales Retail
sales post big drop in November , forget the $1 trillion
record budget deficit , trade deficits, worthless fraudulent securities, lower
earnings/guidance/outlook, the topic (b.s. talking point) de jour for the
lunatic (yes, full moon) frauds on wall street is bailouts, bailouts, bailouts
(not to mention there’s no real money to pay for same – print/create more
worthless Weimar dollars – hyperinflationary – even now despite fake reports
and worse to come), and from well respected wall street fraud madoff,
"it's all just one big lie" and that it was "basically, a giant
Ponzi scheme," which is fraudulent wall street in a nutshell. Madoff fraud case raises questions
about SEC (AP) and even bigger questions about fraudulent
wall street and their washingtonian/federal/state facilitators. Builders sentiment reading at 9 (anything less than 50 is
negative/pessimistic). Motek’s legal expert
correctly points to funds problems with meeting redemptions and paraphrases
J.P. Morgan’s immortal words concerning investing by saying as is particularly
relevant now, It’s not return on investment, but return of investment (that
really counts). Banks hit worldwide by US 'fraud'
. How are these frauds not being
prosecuted and forced disgorgement and preposterously getting taxpayer dollars?
Prosecute and throw them in jail and make them cough up their stolen
multi-billion spoils. Not just super rich caught up in $50B Madoff case
. The previous suckers
bear market rally was/is based on bull s**t alone; namely, now it’s the
prospective bailouts/spending programs with money that does not really exist
(print/create more, borrow more, etc.). 1) Keynesian
economics (government stimulus) does not work when a defacto bankrupt nation
becomes more bankrupt to bailout frauds/perpetrators/creators of the problem
and to create make-shift purported infrastructure jobs to enhance consumption
2) Inherent structural problems, i.e., trade/budget deficits will continue
unabated and in the case of the latter, substantially increase – deeper hole 3)
While spending on infrastructure is warranted, there is no productive
enhancement in economic terms as in less modern times when, i.e., national
highway system, etc., enhanced GDP growth and productivity. US Depression Likely -The Truth Is Here , Coming soon to U.S., 1 million jobs lost every month: Report , America Has No Means to Recover from a Depression FARRELL’S 15 GHOSTS OF WALLSTREET/ECONOMIC
PAST/PRESENT/FUTURE Home values to lose well over $2 trillion during 2008: Zillow Homes
in the United States have lost trillions of dollars in value during 2008, with
nearly 11.7 million American households now owing more on their mortgage than
their homes are worth, real estate website Zillow.com said on Monday. (Remember:
more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and
percentage of which MUST be examined in light of computerization and decreased
costs attendant to same especially since only AN EXTREMELY Small Fraction Of
What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital
via, ie., ipo’S),
The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The
Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades). Moreover, the ballooning taxpayer bailout funds for the
perpetrators of the massive securities fraud are actually going toward
multibillion dollar bonus/compensation packages.
. How are these frauds not being prosecuted and forced disgorgement
and preposterously getting taxpayer dollars? The lunatic wall street
frauds’ desperation linked to their substantial crimes and booty which must be
disgorged through prosecution, especially since none of the real problems
(hundreds of trillions of fraudulent/worthless securities, etc.) have been
addressed much less solved; hence, virtually all
problems remain and there is but an infinitesimally small fraction of the
capital and resources necessary to solve them thanks to fraud, incompetence,
lack of knowledge/ability, greed, etc., so
SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH
WORSE TO COME. Renowned economist Mikhail Khazin : U.S. will soon face
second “Great Depression” , IT’S A DEPRESSION , Grantham (who called the bubble) posits…
585 on the S&P 500 (versus today's frothy 879) There is more
hurt in store for the U.S. equity markets. If you are still thinking of riding
this one out, consider Japan. Japan's Nikkei 225 is our window into the future.
From its 1990 high of 40,000 it fell as low as 7,800, an 80% drop. A similar
correction in the U.S. would translate into Dow 2,500. , Billion-Dollar
Fund Manager; Gold To Hit $2,000, Dow To Sink To 5,000 Previous
session, modest decline relative to reality so still great opportunity to
sell/take profits since much,
much worse to come! All news decisively bad and much worse than expected with trade deficit up 1.1%, dollar
down, unemployment claims up 573,000 a 26 year high, 28% increase in
foreclosures, bailout recipient BofA to cut 35,000 jobs, many other prospective
job cuts announced, economic group changes previous forecast to worse/long
recession, Bernard Madoff arrested over alleged $50
billion fraud Madoff told senior employees of his firm on
Wednesday that "it's all just one big lie" and that it was basically,
a giant Ponzi scheme (the fraudulent wall street story in
a nutshell) , BANK OF AMERICA to cut 35,000
jobs... , ...final could be
higher , Shocking but
true claim: Most big banks 'bankrupt'... , New unemployment claims surge unexpectedly ,
Ron
Paul: Printing Money Only Prolongs The Pain Amidst the hand-wringing of the
automaker bailout debate, Ron Paul took the opportunity on the House floor
yesterday to remind Congress that the real culprit behind the financial crisis
is the Federal Reserve, and that allowing the Fed to continue to print money
without audit will only prolong the pain. ,
US budget
deficit to reach USD 1 trillion , Jim
Rogers calls most big U.S. banks “bankrupt” Jim Rogers, one of
the world’s most prominent international investors, on Thursday called most of
the largest U.S. banks “totally bankrupt,” and said government efforts to fix
the sector are wrongheaded. CORRECTED -
CORRECTED-(OFFICIAL)-UPDATE - Wells Fargo to take $40 bln Q4 charge , German
FM criticises Britain’s ‘crass Keynesian’ policies: report and read again previous session, forget the layoffs Coming soon to U.S., 1 million jobs lost every month: Report , forget the foreclosures Foreclosure
Storm Will Hit US in 2009 as Loan Changes Fail Bloomberg
, forget declining retail sales Retail
sales post big drop in November , forget the $1 trillion
record budget deficit , trade deficits, worthless fraudulent securities, lower
earnings/guidance/outlook, the topic (b.s. talking point) de jour for the
lunatic (yes, full moon) frauds on wall street is bailouts, bailouts, bailouts
(not to mention there’s no real money to pay for same – print/create more
worthless Weimar dollars – hyperinflationary – even now despite fake reports
and worse to come) , suckers
bear market ralley to keep the suckers sucked in so great
opportunity to sell/take profits
since much, much worse to come! This suckers
bear market rally is based on bull s**t alone; namely, now the prospective
bailouts/spending programs with money that does not really exist (print/create
more, borrow more, etc.). 1) Keynesian economics (government stimulus)
does not work when a defacto bankrupt nation becomes more bankrupt to bailout frauds/perpetrators/creators
of the problem and to create make-shift purported infrastructure jobs to
enhance consumption 2) Inherent structural problems, i.e., trade/budget
deficits will continue unabated and in the case of the latter, substantially
increase – deeper hole 3) While spending on infrastructure is warranted, there
is no productive enhancement in economic terms as in less modern times when,
i.e., national highway system, etc., enhanced GDP growth and
productivity. US Depression Likely -The Truth Is Here , Coming soon to U.S., 1 million jobs lost every month: Report ,
America Has No Means to Recover from a Depression (Remember: more contrived wasteful
commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which MUST
be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same
especially since only AN EXTREMELY Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A
Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital via, ie., ipo’S),
The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The
Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades). Moreover, the ballooning taxpayer
bailout funds for the perpetrators of the massive securities fraud are actually
going toward multibillion dollar bonus/compensation packages. . How are these frauds not being prosecuted and forced disgorgement and
preposterously getting taxpayer dollars? The lunatic wall street
frauds’ desperation linked to their substantial crimes and booty which must be
disgorged through prosecution, especially since none of the real problems
(hundreds of trillions of fraudulent/worthless securities, etc.) have been
addressed much less solved; hence, virtually all
problems remain and there is but an infinitesimally small fraction of the
capital and resources necessary to solve them thanks to fraud, incompetence,
lack of knowledge/ability, greed, etc., so
SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH
WORSE TO COME. Renowned economist Mikhail Khazin : U.S. will soon face
second “Great Depression” , IT’S A DEPRESSION , Grantham (who called the bubble) posits…
585 on the S&P 500 (versus today's frothy 848) There is more
hurt in store for the U.S. equity markets. If you are still thinking of riding
this one out, consider Japan. Japan's Nikkei 225 is our window into the future.
From its 1990 high of 40,000 it fell as low as 7,800, an 80% drop. A similar
correction in the U.S. would translate into Dow 2,500. , Billion-Dollar
Fund Manager; Gold To Hit $2,000, Dow To Sink To 5,000 Previous,
modest decline relative to reality so still great time to sell/take profits
since much, much worse to come. Wall Street stung by risk-aversion and realistically
bleak outlooks , Point of no return: Interest on T-bills hits zero
, Tightening Budgets Mean a Rough Ride for IT
, FIRST TIME:
Treasury Bills Trade at Negative Rates... . Previous, suckers
bear market rally based on bull s**t alone; namely, now the prospective
bailouts/spending programs with money that does not really exist (print/create
more, borrow more, etc.). 1) Keynesian economics (government stimulus)
does not work when a defacto bankrupt nation becomes more bankrupt to bailout
frauds/perpetrators/creators of the problem and to create make-shift purported
infrastructure jobs to enhance consumption 2) Inherent structural problems,
i.e., trade/budget deficits will continue unabated and in the case of the
latter, substantially increase – deeper hole 3) While spending on
infrastructure is warranted, there is no productive enhancement in economic
terms as in less modern times when, i.e., national highway system, etc.,
enhanced GDP growth and productivity. US Depression Likely -The Truth Is Here , Coming soon to U.S., 1 million jobs lost every month: Report ,
America Has No Means to Recover from a Depression (Remember: more contrived wasteful
commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which MUST
be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same
especially since only AN EXTREMELY Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A
Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital via, ie., ipo’S),
The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The
Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades). Moreover, the ballooning taxpayer
bailout funds for the perpetrators of the massive securities fraud are actually
going toward multibillion dollar bonus/compensation packages. . How are these frauds not being prosecuted and forced disgorgement and
preposterously getting taxpayer dollars? The lunatic wall street
frauds’ desperation linked to their substantial crimes and booty which must be
disgorged through prosecution, especially since none of the real problems
(hundreds of trillions of fraudulent/worthless securities, etc.) have been
addressed much less solved; hence, virtually all
problems remain and there is but an infinitesimally small fraction of the
capital and resources necessary to solve them thanks to fraud, incompetence,
lack of knowledge/ability, greed, etc., so
SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO
COME. Renowned economist Mikhail Khazin : U.S. will soon face
second “Great Depression” , IT’S A DEPRESSION , Grantham (who called the bubble) posits…
585 on the S&P 500 (versus today's frothy 848) There is more
hurt in store for the U.S. equity markets. If you are still thinking of riding
this one out, consider Japan. Japan's Nikkei 225 is our window into the future.
From its 1990 high of 40,000 it fell as low as 7,800, an 80% drop. A similar
correction in the U.S. would translate into Dow 2,500. , Billion-Dollar
Fund Manager; Gold To Hit $2,000, Dow To Sink To 5,000 Previous
suckers’ bear market rally on far worse than expected and particularly
significant bad news provides great opportunity to sell/take profits,
especially considering fraudulent wall street’s previous modus operandi to keep
suckers sucked into this market and their commission dollars flowing, suckers’
rallies into the close, reassuring rallies prior to weekends as this despite
unexpectedly bad news as today, etc., which frauds perpetrated the yet
unprosecuted crimes that have created this current financial debacle. Record 1.33 homes in
foreclosure,15 year high for unemployment at 6.7% even as many no longer
looking with things so depressed and worse to come in ’09, record level
deficits both trade and particularly budget with money not there being spent
with abandon (worthless Weimar dollars being printed created like mad which is
and will continue to be hyperinflationary regardless of the current fake
reports). Motek has actor/speculator/entertainer/sometimes economist Ben Stein
points to loans in foreclosure hitting new records, paulson misconduct, lack of
oversight/accontability in bailout funds, and the seriousness of the crisis,
but his pointed barbs seem fleeting and is most memorable by his somewhat blind
adherence to policy as indicated by
his criticism of Peter Shiff for warning of this debacle years ago. Motek’s
oil analyst says economy so bad that oil demand down, significant recession in
2009, and hedge funds liquidating positions putting pressure on oil prices.
Finally, Motek elicits from Peter Shiff that jobs created are being destroyed
as fast, phony jobs, bear market and government making worse by digging deeper
hole, phony (worthless Weimar) dollar rally provides opportunity to get out
with hyperinflation to come. GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET
RALLY/STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME. 3 Tell Tale Signs Of This Sucker Rally ,
Half-million jobs vanish as economy deteriorates (AP)
, Job losses worst since 1974 Employers cut 533K jobs in Nov., most in 34 years ,
Late mortgage payments and foreclosures hit record
, 1 in 10 homeowners
behind on mortgage payments, or in foreclosure...
, Wall St financiers party like
there's no tomorrow -- literally WHERE ARE THE CRIMINAL PROSECUTIONS AND
DISGORGEMENT? It’s been wall
street frauds’ nirvana (commissioning a huge decline then a huge incline) at
just a program loop, button push, mouse click away. Previous session,
modest declines relative to reality SO STILL GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL INTO SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET
RALLIES/STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME.
CELENTE OF trendsresearch.com, having predicted the Panic of 2008 now preparing
current prognostications for 2009 which will bear the consequential follow-up
title to the Panic of 2008; namely, The Collapse of 2009, further stating
there’s nothing they’ve done or prospectively can do to avoid the complete
economic/financial collapse in the u.s., the seeds for which have already been
sown, good money after bad notwithstanding, the die having been cast. All business/financial/economic news
decisively bad; 26 year high for jobless rolls, orders to factories down
sharply, job cuts current and prospective up sharply. Motek expert comments on
auto bailout saying
no new concesions with UAW cuts merely cosmetic, just down payment on failed
business model/scenario, bankruptcy necessary as costs too high, and on economy
says nation to go deeper into recession owing to intactable structural
problems; i.e., deficits, etc.. Another Motek expert says very negative
economic environment, sees deepening of more prolonged recession, discusses
risk tolerance in such an environment recommending highest quality debt
instruments but does note risk premium in lesser quality instruments. Food stamp use up 17% to 1 in 10 citizens, bankruptcies soaring, and
re-default rates on mortgages rising. Employers
shedding jobs as recession deepens , AP
IMPACT: Some bailout holdings down $9 billion , Governments
brace for long crisis ahead , High
inventory is killing home builders; industry asks for help , It's
Not a Great Time to Get Into Stocks , Long
Term Investors Should Avoid Leveraged ETFs , Fixing
the Enron Economy , US
FEDERAL RESERVE to buy US DEBT? WITH WHAT? , Prepare For
Depression Level Unemployment , Record
number of Americans using food stamps: report , Whether
We End Up Paying For It Through Taxes Or Hyperinflation, It Will Still Come Out
Of Our Pockets , Corporate
Debt Protection Costs Climb Amid Depression Concern , Shoppers ready to
call it quits MarketWatch | More
than one-third of consumers chose not to shop at all last month, except on
Black Friday, according to Britt Beemer of America’s Research Group. Lawsuit
claims Citigroup was running a “quasi-Ponzi scheme” Bloomberg | Citigroup Inc., the second-biggest U.S. bank by
assets, was accused in a lawsuit of repackaging unmarketable collateralized
debt obligations it held and re-selling them to itself in order to hide its
exposure to the securities. WHERE ARE THE CRIMINAL
PROSECUTIONS AND DISGORGEMENT? Previously, suckers’
bear market rally into the close on bad news with wall street frauds’ nirvana (commissioning a huge
decline then a huge incline) at just a program loop, button push, mouse click
away. Indeed, all news still realistically and
decisively (and some deceptively otherwise spun to keep suckers suckered)
bad: A
Bleak Outlook: Nov. Job Loss at 250,000, Economic Weakness ,
US, China
currency clash over worthless american currency... , 61%
oppose auto bailout ,
Meredith Whitney Sees Plenty of Pain Ahead for Consumers
(at BusinessWeek) , Desperate
Times, Desperate Policies ) . One non-Motek expert says these suckers’ bear
market rallies on bad news are at best wishful thinking and not sustainable
along with realistically dire outlook. Motek expert
says market for speculators/traders and points to volatility index while
failing to point out that there are very, very few successful traders. [Close inspection of the data in past times far better than
now (now we see insurmountable trade/budget deficits, lack of manufacturing
base, global antipathy, etc.) disavows such heavily promoted failed strategies
as dollar-cost averaging where stocks prices remain artificially (now
fraudulently) high for far longer periods of time than lower prices (MBA
Thesis, Albert L. Peia, NYU GBA, 1977), limited exceptions being ie.,
dollar-cost averaging in declining markets, but only when analysis indicates
under-valuation in prospective terms which is certainly isn’t the case now of
rampant over-valuation/fraud]. (Remember: more contrived wasteful
commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which MUST
be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same
especially since only AN EXTREMELY Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A
Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital via, ie., ipo’S), The Rest Is
Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via
'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades). Moreover, the ballooning taxpayer bailout funds for the
perpetrators of the massive securities fraud are actually going toward
multibillion dollar bonus/compensation packages.
. How are these frauds not being prosecuted and forced disgorgement
and preposterously getting taxpayer dollars? The lunatic wall street
frauds’ desperation linked to their substantial crimes and booty which must be
disgorged through prosecution, especially since none of the real problems
(hundreds of trillions of fraudulent/worthless securities, etc.) have been
addressed much less solved; hence, virtually all
problems remain and there is but an infinitesimally small fraction of the
capital and resources necessary to solve them thanks to fraud, incompetence,
lack of knowledge/ability, greed, etc., so
SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO
COME. Renowned economist Mikhail Khazin : U.S. will soon face
second “Great Depression” , IT’S A DEPRESSION , Grantham (who called the bubble) posits…
585 on the S&P 500 (versus today's frothy 848) There is more
hurt in store for the U.S. equity markets. If you are still thinking of riding
this one out, consider Japan. Japan's Nikkei 225 is our window into the future.
From its 1990 high of 40,000 it fell as low as 7,800, an 80% drop. A similar
correction in the U.S. would translate into Dow 2,500. , Billion-Dollar
Fund Manager; Gold To Hit $2,000, Dow To Sink To 5,000 , Auditors Fault Oversight of
Bailout Funds... Previous suckers’ bear market rally in the last
minutes of the close on bad news with wall street frauds’ nirvana (commissioning a huge decline then a huge
incline) at just a program loop, button push, mouse click away. Indeed, all news still realistically and decisively (and
some deceptively otherwise spun to keep suckers suckered) bad: GE lowers
guidance but maintains dividend , November US auto sales drop to 26-year low
, Data signal deep
global downturn Financial Times , US manufacturing
hits 26-year low: ISM . How are these frauds not being prosecuted
and forced disgorgement and preposterously getting taxpayer dollars? The lunatic wall street
frauds’ desperation linked to their substantial crimes and booty which must be
disgorged through prosecution, especially since none of the real problems
(hundreds of trillions of fraudulent/worthless securities, etc.) have been
addressed much less solved; hence, virtually all
problems remain and there is but an infinitesimally small fraction of the
capital and resources necessary to solve them thanks to fraud, incompetence,
lack of knowledge/ability, greed, etc., so
SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO
COME. Renowned economist Mikhail Khazin : U.S. will soon face
second “Great Depression” , IT’S A DEPRESSION , Grantham (who called the bubble) posits…
585 on the S&P 500 (versus today's frothy 848) There is more
hurt in store for the U.S. equity markets. If you are still thinking of riding
this one out, consider Japan. Japan's Nikkei 225 is our window into the future.
From its 1990 high of 40,000 it fell as low as 7,800, an 80% drop. A similar
correction in the U.S. would translate into Dow 2,500. , Billion-Dollar
Fund Manager; Gold To Hit $2,000, Dow To Sink To 5,000 , Auditors Fault Oversight of
Bailout Funds... , Governors to Seek Up to $100B
in Social Aid... ,
Feds to expand rescue;
reviewing applications from 'hundreds of banks'...
FDIC head: Gov't plan needs
'exit strategy'... , Metal prices fall further
than during Great Depression... , they’re printing and
spending worthless Weimar dollars and taxpayer funds like mad because they are
mad as in crazy, incompetent, etc.. Previous session sees modest drop relative to reality [SO SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN
SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME],
particularly when you factor in the reality that the prior 5 day rally of 1,300
points into the last trading week of the month (much like the end of the prior
month) based on bull s**t alone was a typical fraudulent wall street programmed
trade fraud to window dress the monthly numbers and keep suckers sucked in (and
besides, they’ll get their commissions again on the way down). Upon the formal
announcement that we’ve been in recession since DECEMBER, 2007 I was waiting
for Amy Poehler of SNL Weekend Update to say, “REALLY!” [this site has
reported/predicted this (these) debacle (s) for far longer and in advance of
same, including this recession/depression]. The protracted reluctance (election
year expedience) for some to use the R(ecession) word, spun in the most
positive way is to say it is because this scenario is far worse than even would
befit the D(epression) word in light of the fact that the u.s. like never
before in its relatively short history is broke in every way. If you’ve been
suckered, it’s not all your fault inasmuch as the enablers (politicians,
economists, financial experts, news/media, etc., in receipt of substantial
largesse from and) of these vegetable garden (poison ivy league schools, these
“elite” clubs/frats, etc.) products (vegetables who
not only have never done anything requiring skills or measurable results, but
merely are master bull s**t artists and as in the case of wall street, criminal
frauds) are similarly incompetent, corrupt/venal. After all, how are
these frauds not being prosecuted and forced disgorgement and preposterously
getting taxpayer dollars? The lunatic wall street
frauds’ desperation linked to their substantial crimes and booty which must be
disgorged through prosecution, especially since none of the real problems
(hundreds of trillions of fraudulent/worthless securities, etc.) have been
addressed much less solved; and hence, virtually all
problems remain and there is but an infinitesimally small fraction of the
capital and resources necessary to solve them thanks to fraud, incompetence,
lack of knowledge/ability, greed, etc.. Motek’s expert cites retail liquidation
prices (none to minimal profits, at best), inevitable GM bankruptcy, fed programs
done with money out the door to little or no effect and now talking new
programs…riiiiight…or, with rate at 1%, more rate cuts…riiiiight, big shake-out
to come, credit-card co’s to pull back $2 trillion to survive what’s coming,
retailers with big real estate exposure bust, and market will test lows then
break through said lows to the downside. There was in addition to the
‘recession’ announcement more dismal news with construction down 1.2% and the
supply/management manufacturing index at 26 year lows. I derive no pleasure in
being a harbinger of bad but true news but reiterate SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN AS
THESE ARE STILL GREAT OPPORTUNITIES TO SELL/TAKE PROFITS SINCE MUCH, MUCH
WORSE TO COME. Renowned economist Mikhail Khazin : U.S. will soon face
second “Great Depression” , IT’S A DEPRESSION , Grantham (who called the bubble) posits…
585 on the S&P 500 (versus today's frothy 816) There is more
hurt in store for the U.S. equity markets. If you are still thinking of riding
this one out, consider Japan. Japan's Nikkei 225 is our window into the future.
From its 1990 high of 40,000 it fell as low as 7,800, an 80% drop. A similar
correction in the U.S. would translate into Dow 2,500. , Billion-Dollar
Fund Manager; Gold To Hit $2,000, Dow To Sink To 5,000 Dow plunges on news recession began in Dec. 2007 (AP) , Down we go again: Fourth-worst drop ever for Dow , Recession
declared; Wall Street tanks , Fourth-worst
drop ever for Dow AP… as wall street snapped out of its daydream of a rally
and once again faced the harsh reality… Report
Concludes Recession Began A Year Ago | But the White House and the
corporate media consistently continued to state otherwise. Previous session, this suckers’ bear market ralley remains an
especially great opportunity to sell/take profits while you still can since
much, much worse to come (sell into purported strength which is just more bull
s**t for prospective churn and earn fraud – they’ll get those commissions again
on the way down) IMF
economist says worst of crisis to come: paper 'Crisis
Only Just Beginning': Crisis/Video Right About the Crash, Peter Schiff
Sees Much More Pain Ahead and
this suckers’ bear market rally was based upon nothing related factually to
finance/economics/business. How are these frauds not being prosecuted
and forced disgorgement and preposterously getting taxpayer dollars? The lunatic wall street
frauds’ desperation linked to their substantial crimes and booty which must be
disgorged through prosecution, none of the real problems (hundreds of
trillions of fraudulent/worthless securities, etc.) have been addressed much
less solved and hence, virtually all problems remain
and there is but an infinitesimally small fraction of the capital and resources
necessary to solve them thanks to fraud, incompetence, lack of
knowledge/ability, greed, etc., SO SELL INTO
RALLIES/STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN AS THIS IS AS GREAT AN OPPORTUNITY TO SELL/TAKE PROFITS AS YOU WILL SEE SINCE
MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME. Indeed, all news still realistically and decisively (and some
deceptively otherwise spun to keep suckers suckered) bad: SO SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/TAKE
PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN AS THIS IS AS GREAT AN OPPORTUNITY TO SELL/TAKE PROFITS AS YOU WILL SEE SINCE
MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME. IMF
economist says worst of crisis to come: paper . Indeed, all news still realistically and
decisively (and some deceptively otherwise spun to keep suckers suckered)
bad: Biggest runnup in stock prices since 1932 and most know what
happened to stock prices for over a decade thereafter (and america was not broke
in every way as now), Ghost malls cropping up with retail
closures/bankruptcies, as predicted by trendsresearch.com [CELENTE
CORRECTLY PREDICTS REVOLUTION, FOOD RIOTS, TAX REBELLIONS BY 2012 Paul Joseph Watson | Trend forecaster, renowned for being accurate
in the past, says that America will cease to be a developed nation within 4
years, crisis will be “worse than the great depression.”] , Motek expert from the land of fruits
and nuts, the senile wedbush (if you had listened to his prior
prognostications/recommendations several months ago said suckers might be wiped
out by this day) lauds the bailouts (money u.s. doesn’t really have and
taxpayer money the frauds shouldn’t get) and the b.s. talking points thereby
but says workout much longer, while retail expert points to liquidation prices
(but fails to even mention lack of profits thereby), and poverty now spreading
to suburbs. Financial Disaster Will Lead to Civil Disorder in 2009 or
2010, Says Secret Citibank Memo An internal memo from a top Citibank
analyst reveals what the banks really think about the global financial
situation, and the outlook is grim. Citigroup Should Be Held Accountable Bloomberg Food Prices Will Rise, Causing Export Bans, Riots Bloomberg Rubin Clones and Other Fakers: The
Obama “Dream Team” Citigroup says gold could rise
above $2,000 next year as world unravels US debt triggered global crisis
‘Encouraged by a wicked wizard,
Greenspan, Bernanke toils at his Weimar dollar printing press’ . Consumer spending down
(-1%), consumer sentiment down, durable goods orders down (-6%), home
sales/prices down to new lows and high supplies, yet suckers’ bear market
market rally of 400+ points into the close nostalgically based (which got
investors burned in the past) on bull s**t alone (i.e., more bureaucrats on
more painels as per President-elect, etc.) and the so-called thanksgiving
holiday rally. $600 billion plan to support housing lending ultimately
hyperinflationary. New unemployment claims at recession level 529,000 for the
week ended Nov. 22 yet unbelievably lower than private economist estimates.
October durable goods orders plunged by a larger-than-expected amount, Chicago
manufacturing in November contracted the most since 1982 according to a
regional survey, and consumer confidence dropped to a 28 year low in November,
according to the University of Michigan. One Motek expert in a nearly senile
market moment cites pleasant market surprise (reality dictates otherwise) but
in a lucid moment concedes lengthy period to work out (substantial) problems,
while another expert (currencies) cautions the unintended consequences of
creating/printing/flooding the markets with worthless (Weimar) dollars (a
policy choice of inflation over fear of deflation) and the dollar devaluation
and ultimately hyperinflationary effects thereof. FDIC Troubled Bank List Grows to 46% - Is Your Bank
Safe? (at Seeking Alpha) , Consumers cut spending , Stocks on win streak amid more bad
economic news , Cisco plans 4-day shutdown to cut costs
, October home sales fall sharply
(Reuters) . The lunatic wall street frauds’ desperation linked to their
substantial crimes and booty which must be disgorged through prosecution,
none of the real problems (hundreds of trillions of fraudulent/worthless
securities, etc.) have been addressed much less solved and hence, virtually all problems remain, will continue to remain, and
there is but an infinitesimally small fraction of the capital and resources
necessary to solve them thanks to fraud, incompetence, lack of
knowledge/ability, greed, etc., SO GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL/TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH
WORSE TO COME. Federal deficit could hit $1 trillion this year
, FDIC's list of 'problem' banks swells to 171 (AP)
, Dollar falls on realistically discouraging u.s.
economic data (AP) , Third
quarter real GDP was revised to a 0.5% annual rate of decline from a previously
reported 0.3% rate which had rallied stocks and, only in the fraudulent world
of wall street, rallied stocks again though worse than expected Economy shrinks at fastest pace in seven years, Third quarter
personal consumption expenditures were revised to a worse than expected -3.7%
from -3.1%, which rallied stocks ….. riiiiight! , Consumer confidence remains at an extremely depressed state
despite fake numbers ,The
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index of 20 US cities fell 17.4% year over year
— most on record. 'Crisis
Only Just Beginning': Crisis/Video Right About the Crash, Peter Schiff
Sees More Pain Ahead Crisis
Only Just Beginning': Right About the Crash, Peter Schiff Sees Much More Pain
Ahead VIDEO Previously,
from the outset the wall street frauds were again determined to keep the
suckers suckered with a near 500 point rally into the close. Existing home
sales down 3.1% and much worse than expected. Motek’s expert Peter
Shiff correctly points out that the so-called policy-makers, economists,
etc., don’t know what they’re doing, that they can’t borrow (or print worthless
Weimar dollars) and spend (money they don’t have) their way out of this
debacle, that the bailout funds are merely providing undue bonuses/compensation
for failed (and fraudulent) performance, that crisis will be exascerbated with
(unavoidable) hyperinflation (inevitable thereby owing to crashing/worthless
Weimar dollar) and ultimately even deeper/worse/more protracted economic decline,
that auto industry is over-paid (especially relative to competition,
legacy/pension costs, etc.), and importantly, the government has no money so
they either have to borrow or print same which will make the economy much
worse. Cost
of Bankster Bait and Switch Now $7.4 Trillion Another expert says quick bankruptcies would have been the preferred
course for optimal results, while another emphasizes quite correctly that the so-called experts/team now cheered (wall street
frauds’ b.s. talking/rallying point) are those whose experience is having
created the very problems they are now called upon to solve (hence, cover-ups,
etc., but ineffectual). [Good management dictates that a clean sweep was
warranted]. Realize that the products of the vegetable gardens (the poison ivy
league schools producing these vegetables) are vegetables who not only have
never done anything requiring skills or measurable results, but merely are
master bull s**t artists and in the case of wall street, criminal frauds
enabled thereby. Downey Savings taken over by regulators [ Colossal
Financial Collapse: The Truth behind the Citigroup Bank “Nationalization” ]
over the weekend. Obama’s
Economic Foxes To Guard Financial Henhouse Today President elect Obama
officially introduces his economic team to the world. What many may fail to
recognize however is the fact that those tasked with rescuing the economy are
the very people who helped create the financial crisis in the first instance. CELENTE
CORRECTLY PREDICTS REVOLUTION, FOOD RIOTS, TAX REBELLIONS BY 2012 Paul Joseph
Watson | Trend forecaster, renowned for being accurate in the past, says that
America will cease to be a developed nation within 4 years, crisis will be
“worse than the great depression.” Budget
deficit hits record; jobless claims surge Foreclosure
rates up 25 percent year-over-year Banking crisis
claims more u.s. victims How are these
frauds not being prosecuted and forced disgorgement and preposterously getting
taxpayer dollars? The lunatic wall street
frauds’ desperation linked to their substantial crimes and booty which must be
disgorged through prosecution, none of the real problems (hundreds of
trillions of fraudulent/worthless securities, etc.) have been addressed much
less solved and hence, virtually all problems
remain and there is but an infinitesimally small fraction of the capital and
resources necessary to solve them thanks to fraud, incompetence, lack of
knowledge/ability, greed, etc., SO SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN
AS THIS IS AS GREAT AN OPPORTUNITY TO SELL/TAKE PROFITS AS YOU WILL SEE SINCE
MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME. IMF
economist says worst of crisis to come: paper . Previous, suckers’ bear market rally was
based upon nothing whatsoever relevant to finance/economics/business , yet again
the wall street frauds were determined to keep the suckers suckered through the
weekend with a near 600 point rally into the close. All news was decisively bad
Federal regulators shut 2 California thrifts
and though looking
for a reason to rally, they found none because there are none HU: World economic situation
'grim'... , based on valuation and prospective substantial deterioration in
economic conditions exascerbated by their massive fraud; but the invented
reason for the suckers’ rally was the appointment of Geithner, a quintessential
bureaucrat ultimately dependant upon other bureaucrats who are dependant upon
the very corrupt monied interests/frauds (and their lobbyists) who created
(through their crimes) the current financial crisis. Moreover, as head of the
N.Y. Fed he is no stranger to cover-ups/bailouts in light of the missing/unaccounted
for $4+ TRILLION at the N.Y. Fed $4
trillion plus is missing through U.S. federal agency accounts managed by the NY
Fed. Renowned economist Mikhail Khazin :
U.S. will soon face second “Great Depression” , Grantham
(who called the bubble) posits… 585 on the S&P 500 (versus today's frothy
852) There
is more hurt in store for the U.S. equity markets. If you are still thinking of
riding this one out, consider Japan. Japan's Nikkei 225 is our window into the
future. From its 1990 high of 40,000 it fell as low as 7,800, an 80% drop. A
similar correction in the U.S. would translate into Dow 2,500. , Billion-Dollar Fund Manager; Gold To Hit $2,000, Dow To Sink
To 5,000 The lunatic wall street
frauds’ desperation linked to their substantial crimes and booty which must be
disgorged through prosecution, none of the real problems (hundreds of
trillions of fraudulent/worthless securities, etc.) have been addressed much
less solved and hence, virtually all problems remain
and there is but an infinitesimally small fraction of the capital and resources
necessary to solve them thanks to fraud, incompetence, lack of
knowledge/ability, greed, etc., so great opportunity to sell/take profits while you can since much, much
worse to come. Leading economic indicators fall again a more than
expected .8%, new claims for unemployment a high more than
expected 542,000 while continuing claims at 4,000,000 a 16 year high and more
than expected, Philly Fed Index down to a worse than
expected –39. Jobless Claims Hit 16-Year High, Above Forecast Congress extends jobless benefits; stocks fall 400
World stocks down amid reality of deep recession (AP)
CELENTE CORRECTLY PREDICTS
REVOLUTION, FOOD RIOTS, TAX REBELLIONS BY 2012 Paul Joseph Watson | Trend forecaster, renowned for being
accurate in the past, says that America will cease to be a developed nation
within 4 years, crisis will be “worse than the great depression.” Budget deficit hits record; jobless claims surge Foreclosure rates up 25 percent year-over-year
Banking crisis
claims more u.s. victims How are these frauds not being prosecuted
and forced disgorgement and preposterously getting taxpayer dollars? The lunatic wall street
frauds’ desperation linked to their substantial crimes and booty which must be
disgorged through prosecution, none of the real problems (hundreds of
trillions of fraudulent/worthless securities, etc.) have been addressed much
less solved so sell into rallies/strength/take profits while you can since
much, much worse to come. Previous
session, modest losses relative to reality to keep the suckers’ suckered
especially in light of grim economic/business/financial news so still great
opportunity to sell/take
profits while you can since much, much worse to come. Housing
starts down a record 38%, building permits down 14.5%, and outlook grim. Motek’s
expert discusses 30 reasons for Great Depression 2 by 2011 citing completion of
first wave of the meltdown-dot.com bust, second wave-sub-prime debacle, and the
on-going climactic financial/economic meltdown pointing to the 42,000
lobbyists, autos, etc., saying they just don’t get it, while another expert analyst
says new lows across the board having broken through support levels. Motek’s p.r.
expert says auto execs flying to d.c. in private jets to beg for taxpayer money
bespeaks their stupidity, and his travel expert discusses the newly
value-conscious consumer. Fed
sharply lowers forecasts, hints of rate cut which ploy previously sparked b.s.
suckers’ bear market rallies based upon nothing at all but reality says with
only a point to zero and much worse to come is just plain b**l s**t . Deflation:
Here, Now I’ve been warning of deflation for some time. Specifically,
I predicted 1 1/2 to 2 years of deflation, followed by hyperinflation. Well,
deflation is here.“Slush fund” … “Banana Republic” … “Keystone Kops.” Technical Economic Indicators Worsening Again Deflation: Here, Now I’ve been warning of
deflation for some time. Specifically, I predicted 1 1/2 to 2 years of
deflation, followed by hyperinflation Previous suckers’ bear market rally into the close
with 300+ point swing to the upside [wall street frauds’ nirvana commissioning
a huge decline then a huge incline just a program loop, button push, mouse
click away] into the close to keep the suckers suckered as the lunatic wall street
frauds’ desperation linked to their substantial crimes and booty which must be
disgorged through prosecution, none of the real problems (hundreds of
trillions of fraudulent/worthless securities, etc.) have been addressed much
less solved and hence, virtually all problems remain
and there is but an infinitesimally small fraction of the capital and resources
necessary to solve them thanks to fraud, incompetence, lack of
knowledge/ability, greed, etc., so great opportunity to sell/take profits while you can since much, much
worse to come. Homebuilder reality-based sentiment index plunges to
record low Economy so bad commodity prices plunge along
with PPI. Grantham (who called the bubble)
posits… 585 on the S&P 500 (versus today's frothy 859) There is more
hurt in store for the U.S. equity markets. If you are still thinking of riding
this one out, consider Japan. Japan's Nikkei 225 is our window into the future.
From its 1990 high of 40,000 it fell as low as 7,800, an 80% drop. A similar
correction in the U.S. would translate into Dow 2,500. , Forecasters: U.S. in at least, unrealistically
optimistically, minimum 14 month recession The Great Depression of the 21st Century: Collapse of the
Real Economy “The Dollar Standard Is Coming To
An End” Financial Crisis Tab Already In The Trillions... Busted
in Washington Housing starts expected to hit
half-century low Washington
is Powerless to Stop the Coming Economic Depression Whitehead
sees slump worse than Depression Dollar’s Days Numbered, Buy Commodities: Jim Rogers
America’s economic crisis is beyond the reach of
traditional solutions U.S.
Retail Sales Drop in October by Most on Record . (Banker Bailout Costs $5 Trillion So Far ), (Analysts Predict Hyper-Inflation To Push Gold To $2000, Oil
to $300 Within Months ), (Soros says deep recession inevitable, depression likely ),
CELENTE CORRECTLY PREDICTS
REVOLUTION, FOOD RIOTS, TAX REBELLIONS BY 2012 Paul Joseph Watson | Trend forecaster, renowned for being
accurate in the past, says that America will cease to be a developed nation
within 4 years, crisis will be “worse than the great depression.” Budget deficit hits record; jobless claims surge Foreclosure rates up 25 percent year-over-year
Banking crisis
claims more u.s. victims How are these frauds not being prosecuted
and forced disgorgement and preposterously getting taxpayer dollars? The lunatic wall street
frauds’ desperation linked to their substantial crimes and booty which must be
disgorged through prosecution, none of the real problems (hundreds of
trillions of fraudulent/worthless securities, etc.) have been addressed much
less solved so sell into rallies/strength/take profits while you can since
much, much worse to come. 53,000 layoffs from
Citigroup, and many more announced and may more to come from a multitude of
companies to yield predicted 8-10% unemployment (conservative-some higher).
Motek in a somewhat philosophical mood cites blue chips as cow chips (cow pies,
manure, etc.), while his expert joins the metaphysical fray quoting ‘to save
man from his folly is to people the world with fools’ and goes on to say
everything looking bad, things are not good, how long the deep recession-don’t
know, not there yet; while another expert says things have gone from bad to
worse. Indeed, one
expert says US To Lose Its ‘AAA’ Rating/face default/bankruptcy, while
Motek’s expert says market poised to test new lows, points to uncertainty regarding
bailout equivocation/changes and talks up, in a somewhat borderline senile
fashion, some beaten down stocks on theory government will bail them
out…riiiiight! Another Motek expert, actor/speculator/economist Ben Stein says
hanky panky Paulsen perjured himself before congress and should be prosecuted,
points to incompetence regarding bailout saying couldn’t have been handled
worse and not mentally up to it. One
Aspect of the Massive (Securities) Fraud/Fraudulent Wealth Transfer is Aptly
Described/Illustrated in this Comment, [how are these frauds
not being prosecuted and forced disgorgement and preposterously getting
taxpayer dollars? The lunatic wall street frauds’ desperation linked to their
substantial crimes and booty which must be disgorged through prosecution,
none of the real problems (hundreds of trillions of fraudulent/worthless
securities, etc.) have been addressed much less solved], Renowned economist Mikhail Khazin :
U.S. will soon face second “Great Depression” , Grantham (who called the
bubble) posits… 585 on the S&P 500 (versus today's frothy 852) There
is more hurt in store for the U.S. equity markets. If you are still thinking of
riding this one out, consider Japan. Japan's Nikkei 225 is our window into the
future. From its 1990 high of 40,000 it fell as low as 7,800, an 80% drop. A
similar correction in the U.S. would translate into Dow 2,500. , Billion-Dollar Fund Manager; Gold To Hit $2,000, Dow To Sink
To 5,000 The immortal words of J.P.Morgan remain apposite as ’ it is
not so much the return on the money as it is the return of the money’ , so sell/take profits while you can and
preserve capital. Previously modest losses relative to
reality with rally/programmed trades to the upside into the close to finish off
substantially lower lows to keep the suckers’ suckered despite grim
economic/business/financial news so still great opportunity to sell/take profits while you can since much, much
worse to come. America is now a nation of bank holding companies (to
take advantage of involuntary taxpayer bailouts), paper hanging wall street
frauds (it’s the worthless multiplicity of securitized and heavily commissioned
worthless paper that is the problem), and brazened ponzi’s (sic) (more, more,
and more funds to keep their commission ball rolling) on wall street; and of
course, their marks. Banking crisis
claims more u.s. victims How are these
frauds not being prosecuted and forced disgorgement and preposterously getting
taxpayer dollars? The lunatic
wall street frauds’ desperation linked to their substantial crimes and booty
which must be disgorged through prosecution, none of the real problems
(hundreds of trillions of fraudulent/worthless securities, etc.) have been
addressed much less solved so sell into rallies/strength/take profits while you
can since much, much worse to come. Previous
suckers’ bear market rally/programmed trades to the upside into the close to
keep the suckers’ suckered so still great opportunity to sell/take profits while you can since much, much
worse to come, as stocks finish only modestly lower relative to
reality on grim economic/business news across the board, viz., b.s.
talking point gives way to reality that China stimulus plan lessens
availability of funds for the purchase of worthless u.s./dollar denominated securities/assets
and may even require sale/redemption of same, GM shares hit 62 year low at
$3.36 as analyst says said shares will go to - 0- (nil, with Ford’s shares at
$1.93), Motek expert points to employment contraction for 15 months in a row
and Conference Board Report regarding said job losses; while another emphasizes
the futility of the bailouts which are get worse/larger in reference to what he
terms slush funds, the bank tax windfall initiated in the dark of night, things
will get progressively worse in the upcoming administration, u.s. spending far
beyond means, and rapidly depreciating u.s. dollars and assets; DHL ending u.s.
ground ops and 9,500 jobs, Security Pacific the 19th u.s. bank failure, etc., Fed's bailout for AIG swells to more than $150B , Fannie posts $29B 3Q loss, $100B may not be enough , Renowned economist Mikhail Khazin : U.S.
will soon face second “Great Depression” , bankruptcies, defaults,
foreclosures, hyperinflation around corner on worthless Weimar dollars, etc.. Previous session, sell into these suckers’
bear market
rallies/strength/take profits while you can as much, much worse to come. Much worse than expected
jobs (240,000 lost, unemployment to 6.5%) and auto news (operating earnings
losses of $4 billion for GM and $3 billion for Ford for 3rd quarter) rallies
stocks (riiiiight!), in a largely forgettable Motek business hour even his
oftimes wall street shill expert admitted to his credit that their was
absolutely nothing to account for the rise in stock prices this day especially
in light of the substantially bad and worse than expected news, says GM has
enough cash to last to spring while Ford till summer, and says volatility for
rest of the year. Economist says worse to come as very severe recession at
least through 2009 and into 2010, and also there’s allusion to yet another
taxpayer bailout of auto pension funds and auto co. bankruptcies. The wall street frauds must be prosecuted and disgorgement
required. Jobless rate at 14-year high as above expectation
losses continue GM, Ford losses worse than expected, burning cash Jobless ranks hit 10 million, most in 25 years
Ford announces $129M 3Q loss, burns $7.7B in cash
Jobless rate bolts to 14-year high of 6.5 percent Previous, another modest drop relative to reality [Grantham (who called the
bubble) posits… 585 on the S&P 500 (versus today's frothy 904) There
is more hurt in store for the U.S. equity markets. If you are still thinking of
riding this one out, consider Japan. Japan's Nikkei 225 is our window into the
future. From its 1990 high of 40,000 it fell as low as 7,800, an 80% drop. A
similar correction in the U.S. would translate into Dow 2,500. ], downbeat
economic data, first-time claims for unemployment at 25 year high and worse to
come, abysmal retail sales worst in 3 decades, unit labor costs rose at a
higher than expected 3.6% annual rate as the ultimately hyperinflationary
effects of printing/creating like mad those worthless Weimar dollars, and weak
business prospects, virtually all problems remain and
there is but an infinitesimally small fraction of the capital and resources
necessary to solve them thanks to fraud, incompetence, lack of
knowledge/ability, greed, etc., so still great opportunity to sell/take profits while you can since much, much
worse to come. Previous session sees modest drop relative
to reality though record post-election plunge so still great opportunity to sell/take profits while you can since much,
much worse to come. All news so bad (reality even worse) that even
shill co. ADP can’t hide at least 157,000 lost private sector jobs where deep
cuts are necessary, Challenger et als say layoffs will abound with cuts broad
and deep, Motek expert says dismal market for at least next several weeks but
cautious citing some oil, engineering, utilities, healthcare opportunities with
caveat along with some emerging markets, service sector much weaker than
expected and planned layoffs highest in three decades. Treasury wants to borrow
record $550B... US-led strike kills 36 Afghan civilians U.S. as slowing economy/runaway spending balloons the budget
deficit to a record level to Sell $55 Billion in
Long-Term Debt Next Week Previous session, all news
decisively bad with dollar down, oil up, factory orders declining 2.5% month-over-month after dropping
4.3% in August, much worse than the 0.8% decline that was expected, virtually
all problems remain and there is but an infinitesimally small fraction of the
capital and resources necessary to solve them thanks to fraud, incompetence,
lack of knowledge/ability, greed, etc., so
sell into rallies/strength/take profits while you can since much, much worse to
come. Previous, ( Worst is yet to come for economy ) as economic/financial
news so bad [ ISM index shows biggest downturn in economic activity
since 1982, corrupt, scandal-scarred commerce department comes in with 40%
better than expected false construction numbers though still down a hefty .3%,
90% of private economists say we’re in a recession and we’ll see much more
lagging effect to the downside, realization that bad economic conditions going
forward not frozen credit affecting lending despite their lies/fraud to
buttress their fleecing of the treasury, Motek expert says another washout
coming and we’ve not heard the last of those, ie., banks, companies,
brokerages, etc., under the waves] , that lunatic frauds on wall street
develop new b.s. talking point to keep suckers sucked in to this market so the
wall street frauds can keep eating away at suckers’ money by commissioning
same, the new talking point being ‘the election’. What total b**l s**t! They’re
just a bunch of criminally insane vegetables who can’t do anything that they’re
supposed to do well, ie, economics, finance, accounting, etc., and are hoping
to escape accountability for their crimes.
They must be prosecuted and disgorgement required because 1) It’s the law and to create a deterrent prospectively
2) Restore credibility and confidence in prosecutorial, regulatory, government/governmental
bodies as opposed to their being accomplices, and the markets (which are just
that; marketplaces, like fish markets, commodity markets, flea markets, etc.,
no big deal, particularly as the frauds operate them) 3) It’s the right
thing to do because of the magnitude of the fraud (in the hundreds of trillions
by some educated assessments) in the many trillions and the fraud on taxpayers
(who have been damaged by their fraud and) by bailouts that are finding their
way into compensation/bonus packages for the perpetrators .
Previous session, suckers’ bear market rally for window dressing for dismal
month and quarter to keep the suckers suckered in this secular bear market. Are
you a sucker? One in five homeowners owe more than homes are worth, more
unemployment to come, many more defaults personal/commercial, many trillions of
previously commissioned worthless paper still carried/not written down, etc..
One of Motek’s experts, to his credit, points to reality in saying retreat to
cash (take profits) in rallies as these (rallies on bad news), record declines
in spending, economy has lots of negatives, insurance companies have lots of
negatives, hedge funds liquidating, and importantly, 60% of trades computerized
so great for generating commissions but bad for real value (as this week) and
very volatile; while another expert echoes bear case as spending down across
the board; while another empahasizes bad month on top of bad month for
autos; while another says 2008 behind only 1929 and 1987 for bad; and
another says no more room for rate cuts, more regulation, mortgage rates up;
and finally, political and economic uncertainty cited. In sum, u.s. stocks over-priced and dollar will
drop like a stone (excessive printing/creating/debt), Stocks:
A Bear Case so
sell into rallies/strength/take profits while you can as much, much worse to
come. Don’t forget, THEY NEED YOUR MONEY TO COMMISSION and the lunatic
wall street frauds’ desperation linked to their substantial crimes and booty
which must be disgorged through prosecution . Despite another big advance on Friday,
paper losses in the U.S. stock market came to $2.5 trillion for the month,
according to the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Composite Index, which represents
nearly all stocks traded in the United States. The 17.7 percent decline was the
worst since the 23 percent drop in October 1987 and 1929. Previous day,
suckers’ bear market rally on bad news. U.S.
Economy: GDP Shrinks (even with fake better than expected GDP numbers from
corrupt commerce department) at Fastest Pace Since 2001 The government falsely reported Thursday that the economy
shrank only 0.3 percent in the July-September period, still a significant
slowdown after growth of 2.8 percent in the prior quarter in the summer,
sending the strongest signal yet that a deep recession has already begun.
Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the economy, dropped by the
largest amount in 28 years in the third quarter. One expert says multiple
levels of things going wrong in u.s. recession, ie., consumer spending down and
declining, housing recession, fraudulently worthless investments, worthless Weimar
dollars that are being printed/created like mad, etc.. Another expert says fake
GDP number in 3rd quarter does not capture slowdown which will be reflected in
4th quarter with minimum 2-4% decline. How are these frauds not being
prosecuted and forced disgorgement and preposterously getting taxpayer dollars? The lunatic
wall street frauds’ desperation linked to their substantial crimes and booty
which must be disgorged through prosecution, none of the real problems
(trillions of fraudulent/worthless securities, etc.) have been addressed much
less solved so sell into rallies/strength/take profits while you can since
much, much worse to come. Previous session, government (fake)
numbers on durables (130% better than private estimates…I don’t think so!) and
prospectively dollar-crushing 50 basis point rate cut (discounted b.s.
talking point many times over by market in prior sucker session), 2.7% drop in the dollar, fed heads said the pace of economic activity has
"markedly" slowed as consumer expenditures declined, while inflation
pressures are expected (despite worthlessness of the Weimar dollar) to
(temporarily) moderate due to the (temporary election year) drop in commodity
prices and weaker economic prospects, so still
great opportunity to sell into rallies/strength/take profits while you still
can (like now) since much, much worse to come as all problems remain. Previous
session, all news decisively bad with consumer sentiment far below expected 52%
but realistically at 38%, personal bankruptcies/business bankruptcies up
sharply (Euler
Hermes ACI: Substantial Increase In Business Bankruptcies and worse in 2009 ...
, Personal
Bankruptcies Increase and 2009 expected to be worse ), Office
Vacancy Rates Nationwide Keep Climbing; 2009 will be worse ... , US consumer
debt reaches record levels , U.S. budget
deficit swells to record $455 billion | Reuters , White
House projects record deficit for 2009 - CNN.com , dollar
down and dying, record trade
deficits, (Lost growth is cumulative. Thanks to the record trade deficits
accumulated over the last 10 years, the U.S. economy is about $1.5 trillion
smaller. This comes to about $10000 per worker. The damage grows larger
each month, as the Bush Administration and Democratic Congress dally and ignore
the corrosive consequences of the trade deficit), war crimes/profiteering and
global disdain for america and all things american and preposterously based on
b.s. alone ie., dollar negative talking point of interest rate decrease
(hyperinflationary as will be seen post-election), etc., suckers’ bear market rally on decidedly bad news, none of the
real problems including many trillions of worthless paper, deficits
budget/trade, hyperinflationary/worthless Weimar dollars being printed like
mad, have even been addressed much less solved (election-year expedience), lunatic
wall street frauds desperation linked to their substantial crimes and booty
which must be disgorged through prosecution, so sell into
rallies/strength/take profits while you can since much, much worse to come.
THE DOW JUMPS 900 POINTS. SO WHAT? BY MORGAN HOUSE
October 28, 2008 Only in today's market can the Dow have one of its biggest gains ever, on a day when consumer confidence logged its worst readings since it's been followed. After the Dow's nearly 900-point rally today, on what seemed like nothing but loads of bad news, you're right to stand back and wonder what in the world to make of this absurd volatility -- and more importantly, how to invest around it.The short, easy, and honest answer is that this volatility is spectacularly unreasonable, and you're foolhardy to try such an approach. Think about it: Only a few weeks ago, the Dow soared an equally impressive amount -- 936 points -- sending a wave of euphoria over markets, as if our troubles were behind us. Within days ... poof! The gains were gone. There's little reason to jump for joy over today's gain, either. Call me a party pooper, but the bad news in the economy hasn't disappeared, my friends…
Reality from Farrell: Bottom line: You've been scammed: This is total incompetence, … unethical and criminal. If you put your hard-earned $12,000 under the mattress for the last decade, it would have been worth more than the $11,671 accumulated in a mutual fund. But actually it's far, far worse! Now if you also deduct the fund's 5.75% load (and/or commissions) and inflation of more than 30% the past decade, you see the stock market's a real loser. In short, after 10 years of blindly trusting the Wall Street's advice about stocks, it turns out that investing in the stock market is not a money-making machine, but a big fat greedy black hole that gobbles up your money. ECONOMICS GURU: WORST IS YET TO COME; MARKETS WILL CLOSE FOR UP TO WEEK FROM PANIC... More from Grantham: S&P to 585. He called the bubble, how could anyone doubt his valuation (although even lower is more realistic)? Jeremy Grantham … (some) benefits to the crisis, including increasing personal savings, an end to the hedge fund era, a reminder that government officials are not to be trusted, …among others…Grantham posits… 585 on the S&P 500 (versus today's 877). Frank Motek (back from vacation to save his business hour … none too soon since his program suffered mightily in his absence) experts say: lack of liquidity, new homes and home prices downward trend to continue, expect revisions; another says other nations loaned to u.s. and getting burned, spending in Europe more difficult to ramp up, $2 TRILLION more debt, fed buying u.s. debt which is hyperinflationary, consumer maxed out, grim outlook; another, a wall street shill points to better than expected new home sales [from scandal scarred/corrupt commerce department…riiiiight …(Home sales rise according to discredited commerce department relative to revised downward prior months sales (riiiiiight…that’s the way to work the statistics…at least the prior months fake stats can still be good for something) but prices sharply fall)] but to his credit does say there are a pile of concerns including liquidation of positions, ‘n carry trades’ (sic), yen/dollar disparity; r.e. analyst says median price for homes still heading down and another says new home sales this month not sustainable, foreclosures high even with freeze; oil analyst says oil demand in China down, impacting price; finally, another analyst says temporary dollar spike because of unwinding of leveraged trades (in dollars), commodities/assets/metals decline as investors/traders/holders sell off assets (cover margin calls, redemptions, etc.), u.s. stocks still over-priced and dollar will drop like a stone (excessive printing/creating/debt), Stocks: A Bear Case so sell into rallies/strength/take profits while you can as much, much worse to come. Previous session: you know the worst is yet to come when the so-called wizards of fraudulent wall street laud the day’s 5-9% decline as a pyrrhic victory (coulda been worse…..riiiiight!) that is neither victory nor the end of the downward adjustment to reality and the scope of their fraud, indeed one expert now points to the realization that america has become the exporter of economic weakness/fraud as hedge funds, etc., continue to liquidate positions/assets (margin calls, redemptions, etc.) , sell into rallies/strength/take profits while you can as much worse to come. Markets Nosedive on Grim Economic News , World markets sink as recession realities spread , 79th anniversary of 1929 Wall Street Crash... , previous day suckers’ bear market rally/400 point swing/programmed trades to the upside into the close on decidedly bad news …I don’t think so!… sell into rallies/strength/take profits while you can since much, much worse to come Economist Roubini Predicts Hedge Fund Failures, Panic, Closed Markets , Job losses accelerating, and the worst is ahead , Banks borrow record amount from Fed... , on top of previous day’s near 200 point swing to the upside into the close to keep the suckers suckered as ‘experts’ say: earnings 11% below expectations, business bad and getting worse, recession, substantial job cuts, big problems in Europe including writedowns of u.s. originated worthless fraudulent paper / another says realization source of the now global problems is u.s., fed throwing money at problems (wall street frauds) but not making it to the economy, not enough money to cover the negative (fraud) and need for flush out and adjustment of inflatede/bubble/illusory values, and another says reality implies 25% decline which is worst since 1937, sell into rallies/strength/take profits while you can since much, much worse to come Recession Will Last At Least Two Years: Roubini , Recession Now: It's Deep and It's Going to Last a Long Time, Sonders Says ; previous day modest losses relative to reality as only 15% of americans believe the nation is going in the right direction (what dummies!) which is slightly more than congress’ approval rate and just slightly less than bushes’ approval rate, More banks may fail, IMF warns , Weak profit picture and weak/declining economy worries and fear of being held criminally accountable for their fraud hurt Wall Street , sell into rallies/strength/take profits while you can since much, much worse to come , previous day’s suckers’ bear market rally on bad or false news as ie., leading economic indicators up though all economists expected down since major components thereof (stock prices, manufacturing/industrial indices, employment, etc.) all down, economy so bad they’re going to print more worthless hyperinflationary Weimar dollars (that they don’t really have), gave another $12 billion to AIG on top of the other billions of taxpayer funds, yet none of the real problems including many trillions of worthless paper, deficits budget/trade, hyperinflationary/worthless Weimar dollars being printed like mad, have even been addressed much less solved (election-year expedience) so sell into rallies/strength/take profits while you can as much worse to come , The Crumbling U.S. Economy, Worse is Yet to Come , Worst slump since Great Depression , Rapid Downward Revisions in Expected Economic Growth , and all this b.s. despite reality on top of previous session suckers’ 500 point swing/programmed trades to the upside into the close to close modestly lower on much worse than expected news on top of previous suckers’ bear market rally/800 point swing/programmed trades to the upside into the close on decidedly bad news …I don’t think so!
Searching for Mr. Goodlow [ While you certainly want to buy low (and sell high), in light of the crushing debt, deficits both budgetary/trade, global antipathy because of war crimes/profiteering, transfer of manufacturing base, and greedy frauds on wall street, corruption at all levels, etc., this time is like no other for america in the most negative sense, particularly since the average multiples for S&P for the past 5 years were based upon a huge fraud bubble and hardly a benchmark/guideline. The saying/axiom of J.P.Morgan remains apposite as ’ it is not so much the return on the money as it is the return of the money’. ]
Building starts/permits and new home sales down 8.3% and 6.3% to
worst levels in 17 years, drop in consumer sentiment highest ever recorded so
great opportunity to sell/take profits while you still can since smart money
(and reality) say trend is much lower Billion-Dollar Fund Manager, Dow To Sink To 5,000 ,
Roubini: Dow 7,000 Likely 'Sometime Next Year' , Dow Jones Bloodbath Mirroring 1929 Rout Bottom should be around 27 per cent below “bailout bounce”
according to analyst ,
since none of the real problems including many trillions of worthless paper,
deficits budget/trade, hyperinflationary/worthless Weimar dollars being printed
like mad, have even been addressed much less solved (election-year expedience)
so sell into rallies/strength/take profits while you can as much worse to come,
(they’re so desperate for b.s./fraudulent talking points/sizzle to sell that
the rumor (Microsoft to buy/destroy Yahoo) sparks rally though denied by both
companies, spin lower prices as positive when reality is that economic
conditions/prospects so bad that demand has precipitously fallen, Philly fed
Index down sharply indicating contraction, Real Estate/Builders’ Index
lowest/Worst reading since inception, lunatic
wall street frauds desperation linked to their substantial crimes and booty
which must be disgorged through prosecution, volatility index at new
record, previous session reality trumps the new fraud as markets can’t hide
from the plethora of bad economic news albeit sugar-coated for election year
purposes as retail sales down 1.2% for month and as well, year-over-year and in
all regions, beige book says economic activity down in all regions Billion-Dollar Fund Manager; Gold To Hit $2,000, Dow To Sink
To 5,000 sell into rallies/strength/take profits while you can as much
worse to come and remember, fool you once, shame on the wall street frauds who should be in
prison, fool you twice, shame on you and you’re screwed, one expert described the bailout as money
down a black hole Total Bailout Cost Heads Towards $5 TRILLION , shreve of investors’
(shouldn’t that be traders’) business daily said became negative on market in
August and all cash in September [but previously, 6-3-08, SHREVE OF INVESTORS BUSINESS DAILY NOW
NEGATIVE ON MARKET (YA THINK), WAS BULLISH JUST RECENTLY ENOUGH FOR BULL TRAP
(OR JUST PLAIN BULL CRAP) AND CITES HEDGE FUND SPECULATORS, SUPPLY/DAMAND
FACTORS (OIL RISE, ETC), LEADERSHIP TURNED NEGATIVE WHICH FED MINUTES
CONFIRMED, implying that somewhere in between he was positive ] but to his credit states we’re in a
recession…some quarters of negative growth/contraction ahead…takes considerable
time for fed steps/missteps to take effect…and 7-8% unemployment, while fed
governor janet yellen says we’re in a recession…daaah!, while another cites
consensus that the financial crisis won’t be over anytime soon US confronts reality of long, deep
recession/depression ,
The
global economy is going through a "profound shift" as it deals with
the unwinding of debt leverage, which Todd Harrison, CEO of Minyanville.com calls "the mother of all bubbles."
As with the tech bubble before them, bubbles in housing, commodities and hedge
funds were all made bigger because of the unfettered use of leverage. The
unwinding process is going to result in a "prolonged period of
socioeconomic malaise," he says, predicting unemployment will rise will
into double-digits before the cycle turns.
The most recent batch of economic data
certain support a grim outlook:
previous
session saw modest losses relative to reality with near 300 point upswing into
the close on bad news (to keep the suckers in … were you a sucker?…the frauds
on wall street are counting on it as today’s session proves) including record
budget deficit at $454 billion and much worse next year, they’re treating
symptoms not the problems so good money after bad, substantial unwinding of
derivatives and market manipulation by programmed stock purchases, u.s. gov’t selling
treasuries to finance debacle pushing interest rates higher so sell/take
profits, The Wall Street Coup and the Bailout Scam Bailout
$700 billion yet national debt increased by over $1 trillion,They socialize their
losses and privatize their gains ….. How is this happening? Paulson Doles Out $125 Billion to Wall Street Elite What a total
fraud/scam! A
Trillion Dollar Bait and Switch: The Bailout and the Smell Test This
is a secular bear market – check out the cycles. Roubini
Sees Worst Recession in 40 Years, Rally’s End ,
previously Motek’s expert Art Hogan says crisis not over, daaaaah!, buuuttt and
for the first time sounds like a typical wall street shill and loses all
credibility thereby, while another non-Motek expert says will retest lows which
is euphemistically correct while pointing to comparable spike/decline in 1929
et seq. Great Depression scenario , Billion-Dollar Fund Manager; Gold To Hit $2,000, Dow To Sink
To 5,000 , b.s. talking points
and all based upon other nations, Europe and Asia like lemmings again following
america into the abyss (Iraq, etc.) since none of the real problems including
many trillions of worthless paper, deficits budget/trade,
hyperinflationary/worthless Weimar dollars being printed like mad, have even
been addressed much less solved (election-year expedience) so sell into
rallies/strength/take profits while you can as much worse to come and remember,
fool you once, shame on the wall street
frauds who should be in prison, fool you twice, shame on you and you’re
screwed, as this and previous session’s
programmed buy trades to keep the suckers sucked in and commission dollars
flowing (the shameless wall street frauds made hundreds of millions last week
and today on high then moderate volume as government/banks closed for holiday),
thousand point swings to the upside- I don’t think so, as yet again those
needful things on wall street get even MORE, MORE, MORE, MORE, MORE for the
poor (not really, in light of the mega billions in fraudulently derived
commissions, bonuses, compensation, which should and must be disgorged through
prosecution) frauds on wall street, retail down, unemployment at recession
levels, modest losses relative to reality so sell into strength/take profits,
get your money out while you can and don’t forget that the worthless hyperinflationary
Weimar dollars they’re printing like mad will, like the current fraud
unraveling, come home to roost [Rogers:
Global Bankers Have Unleashed Hyperinflationary Holocaust ] making, assuming arguendo there are, any
wild-eyed purported gains to come illusory/non-existent at best and further,
national (and consumer) debt and lack of industrial/manufacturing base/trade
deficits make previous recovery comparisons preposterous, Motek’s expert says
on-going bear market since 2000 (market down 75% as measured in gold) with
continued massive liquidations to pay off debt and that attempts to reflate
with bailouts will fail culminating in hyperinflationary depression, while
another expert says stocks could slug around at bottom for extended period,
while Financial Times Editor says most volatile day ever, not at tradable
bottom, and this was a market crash at –40% from top. GM shares on credit watch with negative implications
by S&P tumble 31 percent to 58-year low , Roubini: Rate Cuts Temporarily and Minimally Reduce
Crash Risk, But Dow 7,000 Likely 'Sometime Next Year' , dollar down, oil up, Motek’s expert Bogel of Vanguard fame
points to speculative measure for wall street in 1929 as 280 which is even
below and not as bad as the current measure of 320 in year 2008 indicative of
the ridiculousness of the wall street debacle, It's Not You, It's the Market - Now Officially the
Worst S&P Decline in History ,on
top of previous sessions needful things on wall street saying MORE, taxpayer
money to bail them out for their consummate fraud, etc., MORE now
EU/Asian/fed/taxpayers’ cooperation/contribution for their past, present and
future frauds, etc., to keep their ponzi-like scheme of worthless paper moving;
how about prosecution, prison, fines, and disgorgement for these mega
billion dollar frauds, as 500 point swing to the upside into the close (get
your money out while you can-sell into strength/rallies/take profits) on yet
another b.s. talking point (I don’t think so and neither does Cramer says Get Out Of The Market ) as Motek’s expert apparently shell-shocked talks in terms
of washout levels while another says bailout will take about 4 weeks to
implement and not sure if same will work [WON’T! There are trillions (some say in the hundreds of trillions) of the
fraudulent worthless paper out there] and points
to negative economic fundamentals and says reduce exposure to equities in favor
of ie., money market treasuries, previous day buy on rumor, sell on news (of
fraud bailout) obtains, fundamentals horrendous as economy loses more than
expected 159,000 jobs, Motek’s economist/expert/trader says serious economic
issues remain and cites ’73 to ’74 when market fell 45% top to bottom while
securities expert says now focus is on fundamentals and not a pretty picture
and cautions about dilution, get your money out while you can-sell into
strength/rallies/take profits-that’s what they did , previously hopes for
fraudulent $4
trillion plus is missing through U.S. federal agency accounts managed by the NY
Fed misguided Not
One Dime! wall street
fraud/criminal bailout “Grand Larceny” on a Monumental Scale: Does the Bailout Bill
Mark the End of America as We Know It? can’t change reality as unemployment numbers highest in 7
years, factory orders decline to lowest level in 2 years, food prices with
largest increase since 1990, previous 200
point swing to the upside on top of 485 point previous day gain with all
seriously negative news including sales drops of 16% at GM and 35% at Ford so
sell into these rallies/strength/take profits whil you can, economist Brusca points to grim economic/financial data and
outlook even with bailout, Billion-Dollar Fund Manager; Gold To Hit $2,000, Dow To Sink
To 5,000 , U.S. Sept. ISM manufacturing index plunges to 43.5% (worst
since 1955), Bailout Would Only Prolong Crisis: Jim Rogers ,except for scandal-scarred corrupt commerce department
which reported unexpected rise in consumer sentiment (riiiiight…things are so
hunky-dory), all news decidedly negative with home prices falling an unexpected
record 16.3 %, etc. Bailout marks
Karl Marx’s comeback This
is not brain surgery and the fraud, bonuses/compensation (mortgages, subprime
and otherwise, are only a relatively small portion of the fraud/scam providing
“cover/collateral” for the worthless but heavily commissioned paper over and
over again in a multiplicity of different forms of worthless paper) in the
mega-billions should first be disgorged before taxpayers are forced to pony up
and pay the frauds again for their fraud which caused the problem in the first
instance, must be prosecuted. It should also be noted that despite the
rhetoric, the wall street bailout will NOT solve the crisis or eliminate the
economic pain except to make permanent the fraudulent wealth transfer to the
most well healed heals/frauds/criminals in the nation who caused the so-called
crisis by their greed/corruption/fraud. All news
decisively negative as WaMu becomes biggest bank to fail in US history (AP),
GDP revised downward to 2.8% in second quarter (the market previously rallied
on the false news and rallies again on the true bad news), only 30% at most support the taxpayer bailout of the wall
street frauds so count on tax revolts as predicted by experts if the same
passes , Sell
into any rallies/take profits as all problems remain and will be exacerbated by
the fact that the vast majority of taxpayers rationally and correctly opposed
the bailout of the wall street criminals who benefited from the fraud. Reaction
has been fast and furious 9-28-08[2:38 am]; take a look at some initial
comments. Sell into any strength/take profits because with bank
failures and raids on taxpayer funds and reckless printing like mad of
worthless Weimar dollars and fake data/reports and lies this is worse than
recession/bear market, New Home Sales Plunged 11.5% to 17-Year Low and home inventories up, jobless claims up and durable goods
orders down far more than expected, home prices drop by record 9.5%, existing
home sales down 2.2% as they continue to foist the wall street criminal/fraud
bailout on taxpayers which Bloomberg
now pegs at a cost of $5 trillion while other economists/experts say
hundreds of trillions [which means $700 billion down the tubes into the pockets
of the wall street criminals (make them pay) who created the mess through their
greed/fraud/scams and who’ve already reaped huge financial sums in the many
billions through compensation/bonuses (mortgages, subprime and otherwise, are
only a relatively small portion of the fraud/scam providing “cover/collateral”
for the worthless but heavily commissioned paper over and over again in a
multiplicity of different forms of worthless paper]; Motek’s financial expert,
Financial Times Business Editor cites thoroughly gloomy economic picture
globally and u.s. particularly, record levels of borrowing from fed, even with
passage of bailout dire economic/financial scenario will remain, and axiomatic
‘buy on the rumor, sell on the news’ picture for stocks while his
expert/economist/investor/entertainer (Ben Stein) says outrageous to bail out
wall street criminals who should be in prison [and who should pay back/disgorge
the hundreds of billions they’ve been scamming by repackaging/recollateralizing
commissioning and reselling of which fraud/bubble I’ve been warning for over 5
years on this site-indeed they even have been exempted by congress for RICO
liability and meaningfully lawless application of other laws as I reiterate in
my RICO Summary under
penalty of perjury to the FBI at their request including RICO violations by
Sam Alito, former u.s. attorney (District of new jersey) who parlayed
obstruction of justice (I’ve sworn to this regarding drug-money laundering)
into judicial appointments to the 3rd circuit court of appeals with maryanne
trump (Barry) and now the so-called supreme court (he should have gone to jail)
justice; how could anyone even listen to bush (WMD’s in Iraq-I also warned
against that debacle/fraud/war crimes/profiteering) ] and he further says let
the ceo’s go and some of the failed institutions fail condemning the
outrageousness of the lack of oversight in this huge fraud/wealth transfer; and
hanky panky paulson the wall street shill whose $50 million in blind trust and
$20 million in vanguard benefits from this bailout by the taxpayers, The Fed is Making a Killing on Banking Crisis , so great opportunity to sell/take profits while you
still can. One democrat said that with
3 months remaining in war criminal (remember the lies) bush’s lamentable failed
presidency the grab based on fear that bailout of the criminals who caused the
problem and made huge sums from their heavily commissioned fraud will avoid
what already is can only be deemed another fraudulent wealth transfer akin to
the war crimes in Iraq, which budget-busting conflict is also part of america’s
problem, is preposterous on it’s face.A republican said that the
so-called over-sight provision utilizes a standard of judicial review that would
render impossible any purported review/abrogation (and after the fact at that)
of paulson’s largesse to his bro’s on wall street and bush buddies. Mike
Stathis The Market Oracle September 22, 2008… As far as I’m concerned, anyone
who doesn’t conduct a full investigation of this charade leading to several
CEOs and other executives in prison with all of their assets being shuttled
into America’s bailout fund doesn’t have what it takes to lead America anywhere
except on its current course – downward. But it doesn’t really matter at this
point anyway. Washington and the greedy bankers have ensured the end of what
was once a great and proud nation filled with hope and opportunity. … ,
Dollar
Weakens Most Against Euro Since 2001 on U.S. Deficit , Financial terrorism: US taxpayers bail out Wall Street
criminals , A Bailout to Nowhere ,…Cramer
had said the astonishing 779-point rally over the past two days can only mean
one thing: sell. , in this election year
obfuscation/desperation to cover-up since all real news remains decisively
negative as leading indicators fall, unemployment claims rise, but suckers’ bear market rally b**l s**t talking points
without realistic, legitimate, sound foundation previously rallied stocks in
nearly 600 point swing to the upside as wall street
shill/fraud/pointman/incompetent paulson floats new fraudulent wealth transfer
paid for by taxpayers (yet another bailout – tax revolts as predicted by
trendsresearch.com are a coming – McCain is quite right that land of fruits and
nuts man cox should be fired from the SEC; A New Resolution Trust Corp. for the Bankers? Kurt
Nimmo | Congress critters, former Fed mob
bosses want a public boondoggle along the line of the Resolution Trust Corp. to
bailout the banksters) and insurmountably
increasing the defacto bankrupt government’s debt in favor of the very
well-healed perpetrators of the fraud who should be prosecuted and forced to
disgorge their ill-gotten gains (bonuses, etc., in the multi-billions) before
even broaching the ill-advised united soviet
socialist states of america plan to have
taxpayers pay for the wall street fraud, and then there was the ridiculous
spike from fed’s announced printing/creating more worthless Weimar dollars
($180 billion - All Roads Lead To Hyperinflation ) which even coupled with foreign contributions does not even
register a blip of difference in light of the magnitude of the amount of debt,
$14 trillion private/$15 trillion public, much of which must be written
down/off/non-performing . Don’t be wall street’s (churn and earn) fool; time
for them to pay up; time for you to sell/take profits/cut losses! Housing construction plunges 6.2 pct. in August , Worst
is yet to come, investment strategist warns (at MarketWatch) , more gov’t bailout taxpayer money with ever more worthless
Weimar dollars (fed printing/creating them like mad) proves the only lunatics
(yes, the full moon) are not limited to those lunatic fraudulent wall street
needful things who should be prosecuted and forced to disgorge their ill-gotten
gains, as united soviet socialist states of america (who built up communist
china so who could have expected less) takes 80% stake in AIG, spreads
widening as piles of worthless debt/securities/collateral unwind so sell into
these suckers’ bear market rallies as all problems remain US Economy: Rudderless and
Reeling From Direct Hits , Federal bank insurance fund
dwindling , More Socialism for the
Bankers: Fed to “Loan” AIG $85 Billion , economy so bad oil demand own, so cut your losses/take
whatever gains/get your money out while you still can as industrial output down
much greater than expected 1.1% (for the prior month) , Meltdown in US finance system pummels stock market
, Rogers: Dollar To Lose World Reserve Status , AIG downgraded as financial meltdown spreads
, Wall Street mauled by Lehman bankruptcy, AIG fears , highest year over year foreclosures on record,
retail down .3% while inventories up, as bad news spurs over 150 point swing to
the upside into the close which shows irrationally fraudulent markets trying to
keep suckers sucked in for their commissioning pleasure, Bullish Sentiment Drops 30% , CBOE Put-Call Ratio Indicates Negative Outlook ,
Get Ready For the S&P 500 to Break Below 1200 ,
WaMu cut to "junk," sees $4.5
billion loss reserve (Reuters) , U.S. Trade Deficit Surges; Boosts Likelihood of Recession,
Job Losses , August foreclosures hit another
record high , federal/trade deficits
among other bad news worse than expected which previously rallied stocks
(riiiiight!) on over 300 point swing to the upside (I don’t think so) so
sell into these ephemeral rallies/"strength”, Lehman shows wider than
expected $3.9 billiion loss, Another bull joins the bears Peter Eliades now says Dow should drop below 9,000, election-year sugar/fake reports as Pending home sales fall more than expected 3.2%
, Fannie/Freddie fail, federal takeover, taxpayer
bailout (which the frauds on wall street cheer since they believe their
fraudulent gains, many billions worth, might not be touched - they should be
disgorged through prosecution) as defacto bankrupt government to commit
$100 billion each to insolvent fannie/freddie ($200 billion they really don’t
have to start with), very ridiculous so sell into ephemeral
rallies/"strength" since the same and all is very bad news Top
Investor: Fannie/Freddie Bailout Serves "Bunch Of Crooks And
Incompetents" (more to follow
this update on 9-7-08) suckers’ bear market/short-covering rally into the close
on 200 point swing to the upside (riiiiight) on very bad news, nonfarm payrolls fell
by 84,000 during August, bringing the unemployment rate to 6.1%, THE LATEST FRIDAY FAILURE FOR THE U.S. BANKING INDUSTRY: US to take control of mortgage giants: reports
, Home foreclosures reach record high , and keep
in mind frauds/scams like wall street today invariably
unravel as reality bites with all news bad (except for fake news) and worse
than expected with new unemployment claims up more than 15,000 on top of terrible
back-to-school shopping/retail numbers, though still sugar-coated for election
year as sales at GM down 20% Ford down 26%, bankruptcies up, credit union taken
over by feds, August ISM Index down below 50
indicating contraction, construction spending fell a
larger-than-expected 0.6%, and spending down to lowest
level in 3 years with income declining .7% in contrast to previous day’s
suckers’ bear market rally on light volume so great time to sell/take profits
while you can since all problems remain] Election-year feel good typically
false/embellished at best temporary report on GDP 58% better than private
forecasts along with that bastion of american credibility, the scandal scarred
prevaricating commerce department comes through with fraudulent talking point
for the wall street frauds with durable goods numbers exceeding private
economist estimates by 400% (I don’t think so!), as one of Motek’s experts says
GDP number from government, at best temporary blip from rebate stimulous (those
election-year monies/printed Weimar dollars debt-ridden u.s. doesn’t really
have) and multi-national exports on weak dollar, seventh staight monthly
decline in payrolls in this real recession, and continued problems in financial
sector/real estate/defaults/writedowns; while another seasoned expert
says doesn’t look good particularly for third and fourth quarters. Motek’s
expert says FDIC might have to borrow from treasury [ FDIC may borrow money from Treasury ], second largest quarterly loss on record from thrifts at
$5.4 billion, Fannie/Freddie fail the performance test, and precipitous fall in
leading economic indicators indicative of deeper/longer recession that we’re
already in so high allocation to cash/low allocation to stocks. The Real Rate of Inflation is 13% No way to credibly spin the record real estate price declines
on high volume of foreclosure sales/high unsold inventories, high
inflation as other than the economic debacle it is, Motek’s expert reiterates
reality of this bear market, that stocks will resume slide, good time to sell
since pricey/frothy at avg. 24 P/E, that Freddie/Fannie bailout/gov’t. takeover
inevitable, more troubled banks [ FDIC's Problem Banks List Balloons (at TheStreet.com)
] as loan defaults extend losses in sub-prime,
to now prime, commercial, student loans, credit cards, even as inflation up,
and outlook very bleak. Previously, another bank failure, but they say existing
home sales up greater than expected 3.1%…but from auction/foreclosure sales
(40%), prices down 7% (-22% in land of fruits and nuts) and inventories of for
sale/unsold homes at new record high since tracking began in 1968 and worse to
come, Chicago index of manufacturing down indicating further economic weakness
and Motek’s expert says ‘put’ activity indicates at least 10-15% more downside
from here/government bailout ot fannie/freddie inevitable and f/f stock
worthless as all news decisively bad beyond expectations though fudged to
upside for election year and yet bernanke who is printing worthless
hyperinflationary Weimar dollars like mad soothed (gives them fraudulent
talking point) the frauds on wall street saying essentially the economy is so
bad inflation less of a problem (and no interest rate hike-old news because of
economic weakness and bad for dollar) sparking suckers bear market rally on
light volume, Buffett: We're still in a recession, leading indicators down
.7%, unemployment near record levels,Oil jumps $5 on US-Russia tensions, sliding dollar , hence great opportunity to sell/take profits since all problems
remain and dollar mini-spike short-lived though some fluctuations to upside on
speculation other economies will tank. Wholesale prices: Highest annual rate in 27 years . The
Strong Dollar Illusion . Housing starts and building permits posted steep declines. That hub of global manufacturing buzzing (riiiiight!) as
empire state index as measured by private economists expected to fall -4.2% but
is reported up +2.8% (almost 300% better-I don’t think so, and don’t buy the
Brooklyn bridge, watches, swamp land in jersey, etc.), inflation news double
expectations Bracing for Inflation August 15, 2008 (BusinessWeek Growing evidence
suggests American consumers, businesspeople, and political leaders should all
be bracing for double-digit inflation, probably as early as 2009), real estate falling, U.S. Foreclosures Rise 55%, Bank Seizures Reach High , unemployment at recession
levels, etc.,. Note the rotation into the obscure world of so-called tech which
provides, as in prior such ploys (ie., dot-com bust, more recent bust, etc.)
the world street frauds with the ability to sell the sizzle since investors and
americans generally don’t understand it (ie., iphones are a joke where the
so-called “computer” is merely a restrictor of usual computer functions now
tied into apple products and government shill co att, and anyone who pays the
premium for apple products is a fool), and all news bad albeit fudged to the
upside in this election year. Fake trade figures, more writedowns/bad
debt, still great opportunity to sell/take profits. Just another frothy day in
the rabidly fraudulent lunatic world of wall street and great opportunity to
sell/take profits since all problems remain and dollar mini-spike short-lived.
Fog of war ( U.S. Attacks Russia Through Client State Georgia –
don’t believe american lies/propaganda to the contrary) is frauds friend, repeat three times to understand
fraudulent wall street euphoria over diversion (Georgia conflict) from their
massive fraud which brought much greater than expected losses at fannie (U.S. Headed Toward Bankruptcy, Says Top Budget Committee
Republican ) and triple-digit decline
to triple digit upswing so especially great opportunity to sell/take profits as
glass-half-full kind of frauds point to increase in
(foreclosure/auction/forced) home sales (riiiiight!) while they can no
longer hide substantially increased unemployment, etc., economy so bad
oil demand declining which is shill point for next stage of (new) wall street
fraud/commissioned churn and earn scam which the taxpayers just underwrote/paid
for with complicit government, executive/legislative/judicial branches/fed.
Great opportunity to sell/take profits since all problems remain as real numbers
indicate previous decline in GDP though falsely reported as gain, greater
unemployment (watch for fake numbers from government) and much more downside to
come as stocks previously rallied on sharp increase in oil prices and ADP, A
JERSEY BASED COMPANY NOT UNFAMILIAR TO THE FRAUD/CRIME OF PLACING
FAKE/NON-EXISTENT EMPLOYEES ON PAYROLLS TO FACILITATE (ILLEGAL/DRUG) MONEY
LAUNDERING PLAYING BALL (I’M SURE FOR A PRICE/FAVOR) WITH THE FRAUDS ON WALL
STREET/ADMIN. WITH ALLEGED, UNEXPECTED INCREASE IN PRIVATE SECTOR JOBS, and
short-covering. The
Dow Priced in Ounces of Gold: Secular Bear Market Since '99 by Lindstrom from
Seeking Alpha AP
Business Highlights A private research group says that
Americans remain the most pessimistic about the economy since the tail end of
the last prolonged recession 16 years ago. But economists warn that the slight
uptick, which reverses a six-month slide since January, is likely to be only
temporary and doesn't signal the beginning of a rally…Yahoo… the survey only has weak correlation with actual spending,
so Briefing.com
does not put too much stock in the report.]
Quantifying
Inflation by Zigler from Seeking Alpha,
Housing report bruises frauds on
wall street with reality but false report from corrupt, scandal-scarred,
criminal commerce department (contrary to all expectations and contrary to all
regional fed manufacturing indices which declined) provides fake report and
fraudulent lift . Great Opportunity to
Sell/Take Profits as Reality trumps bull s**t! Sell dollar denominated assets
as all problems remain. El-Erian: Buy more foreign stocksEven
in this century's darkest days of recession and war, U.S. households kept on
spending. But one of the smartest investors on the planet says the American
consumer is finally out of steam. Even if, and it is
not, oil were the only problem, the same is just a disruption away from a
spike. Suckers’ bear market/short-covering rally based on bull s**t alone, this
time by wall street shill paulson whose bailout rhetoric brings ‘irrational
exuberance’ since wall street frauds should be prosecuted, required to disgorge
ill-gotten gains, and jailed since they’re the ones who benefited and are
escaping accountability by the bailout. Except for multi-nationals and
corporate welfare recipients (ie., Lockheed, etc.), greater than expected
losses in not millions but billions rallied the stocks. Remember, these are
huge financial institutions unlike the tiny S&Ls of the last banking
fraud/wealth transfer (to frauds at expense of taxpayers). Leading indicators
revised down (after ‘election year keep the incumbents’ fake report). What do
you expect the wall street frauds/criminals who should be held accountable and
the failed (and illegal- constitution would have to be amended to enable Fed to
print those worthless Weimar dollars with now even failed Fannie and Freddie
getting some with taxpayer bailout) Fed to say; admit they royally f**ked up,
etc., better than expected very bad news, ie., Citibank loses only $2.5
billion, hyperinflation, over 200% more (suuuuure!) than expected oil
inventories, GM cuts dividend, Intel monopoly eliminates AMD, economy so bad
less oil use/demand, riiiiight! What total bull s**t! SELL INTO STRENGTH, TAKE
PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN!] Similarities
between 1929 and 2008 terrifying [In just the
month of June, the Dow dropped 10.19%; the S&P fell 8.60%, and the Nasdaq
lost 9.10%. For the quarter, the Dow fell 7.44%; the S&P lost 3.23%, while
the Nasdaq had an anemic 0.61% gain. For the first half, the Dow is down
14.44%; the S&P lost 12.83%; and the Nasdaq has fallen 13.55%. Since their
high point last October, the Dow gave up 19.87%; the S&P dropped 18.22%;
and the Nasdaq is down 19.80%. A 20% drop from a market peak is considered the
start of a bear market — although many analysts say Wall Street already has a
bear market mentality (because the bear market already is. Some chart data/numbers on bear markets: first chart second chart).]
FAKE GOV’T/ETC. ELECTION YEAR REPORTS THAT EXCEED ECONOMISTS/ANALYSTS
FORECAST/EXPECTATIONS, EARNINGS NOT AS BAD AS EXPECTATIONS (SUUUUURE-SAME
OLD FRAUD). GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL (TAKE PROFITS) WHILE YOU CAN, ESPECIALLY
WITH SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLIES ON NEGATIVE NEWS (PARTICULARLY SNEAKING INTO
THE CLOSE). NOTHING HAS CHANGED REGARDING TRADE AND BUDGET DEFICITS, WORTHLESS
WEIMAR DOLLAR AND THE HYPERINFLATION/STAGFLATION THEREBY, AND ELECTION YEAR
(THIS IS AN EPHEMERAL GOOD AS IT GETS SCENARIO) ATTEMPTS TO REINFLATE THE
BUBBLE, ETC., THAT HAS HELPED TO CREATE THIS FINANCIAL/ECONOMIC DEBACLE. THE
FED/WALL STREET FOCUS/DEFLECTION ON CORE INFLATION IS A SHAM/FRAUD AND
TANTAMOUNT TO SAYING IF YOUR MOTHER HAD WHEELS SHE’D BE A TROLLEY CAR.
[eND OF FIRST QUARTER DOW –8%, nASDAQ-14%, AND S&P-10%. WALL STREET IS A
JOKE THAT IS NOT FUNNY]. USA
2008: The Great Depression. High
Likelihood of a Market Crash Similarities
between 1929 and 2008 terrifying I WARNED
AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I
WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST
INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO
STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL). SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET/SHORT COVERING RALLY/NEW
BUBBLE MODE (ALONG WITH MODEST DROPS RELATIVE TO REALITY) SO SELL (TAKE
PROFITS) AS THE WALL STREET SCAM IS UNEARTHED BY REVELATION THAT OF 9
INVESTMENT VEHICLES S&P (MAJORITY OF 401K HOLDINGS, ETC.) WAS WORST
PERFORMER (1% OR LESS AND IF YOU FACTOR IN DECLINING DOLLAR, NEGATIVE RELATIVE
TO NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED ALTERNATIVES OVER DECADE). JAWBONER BERNANKE SAYS
THIS DOWNTURN IS DIFFERENT FROM THE GREAT DEPRESSION AND HE IS RIGHT INASMUCH
AS AMERICA UNLIKE AFTER THE GREAT DEPRESSION WILL EMERGE FROM THIS DOWNTURN AS
SOMETHING SIGNIFICANTLY AND SUBSTANTIALLY LESS FROM WHICH THERE WILL BE NO
RETRACEMENT TO THE UPSIDE FINANCIALLY, ECONOMICALLY, GEOPOLITICALLY. Bank
issues global stock and credit crash alert... Write
Offs to Top $1.3 Trillion.Who didn’t see this coming? The
Next Crisis: 'Credit Default Swaps'-- Subprime is a Just a 'Vorspeise' . 5
REASONS WHY THE FED HAS FAILED. GREENSPAN: NO
REGRETS; U.S. IN SEVERE RECESSION. UK, US, AND
WORLD FACING THE BIGGEST FINANCIAL SHOCK SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION, SAYS IMF. VIX
TO VXV RATIO IS GIVING A STRONG BEARISH SIGNAL YAHOO
FINANCE SUMMARIZES THE ESSENCE OF THE TRADING DAY: [BEFORE THE YAHOO MAINSTREAM FLUFF, IT IS NOTEWORTHY THAT ALL
THE PROBLEMS REMAIN FROM DEFICITS TO WORTHLESS WEIMAR DOLLAR TO FRAUD TO FAKE
GOV’T REPORTS, suckers’ bear market rally
into the close, Analysts say
more U.S. banks will fail Jim Rogers: Dollar Doomed, Oil Will Go Over $200 per Barrel
Soon Fannie Plan a `Disaster' to Rogers; Goldman Says Sell ,
why would anyone hold/invest in dollars
(deficits, trade and budget substantial, economic growth declining) so
sell/take profits, if you’re smart, as higher oil prices (7-10-08) sparks rally
(riiiiight!) and investors were encouraged by the possibility of more
contributions to their fraud, and Paulson says things are not as bad as the
reports in this election year; he’s right; they’re much worse! Remember
greenspan’s perpetual envy of all the world speeches; now Bernanke printing
hyperinflationary Weimar dollars like mad; they’re dreaming. Similarities
between 1929 and 2008 terrifying U.S. stocks post sharp weekly losses; bear market
that already is now said nears , Stocks tumble as more bad economic news piles up,
Wave of bad news sends Dow down nearly 360,
Sales of new homes tumbled for the sixth time in
seven months in May while median prices kept plunging, American Express sees
worsening credit conditions, but fake government report of higher than expected
oil inventories (riiiiight!) rallies stocks, Home prices fall in April at record rate,
Consumer confidence sinks to 16-year-plus low
, BlackRock sees global slowdown
worsening in 2009 , DOWNGRADES OF
BANKING/FINANCIAL SECTOR AND IN AUTO SECTOR ALONG WITH BOND INSURERS AMBAC,
MBIA, AMERICA’S BLIND SUPPORT OF ISRAEL/ISRAELI AGGRESSION DEPRESSION CONTINUES
ON COURSE, PHILADELPHIA FED INDEX REGIONAL ASSESSMENT OF MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY
POSTED A BAD READING OF -17.1 FOR JUNE WITH JOBLESS CLAIMS MORE THAN EXPECTED
AND ANALYST SAYS RAISING CHINA'S GASOLINE AND DIESEL PRICES BY 46 CENTS A
GALLON NOT ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON EXISTING DEMAND, INFLATION UP AND
PRODUCTION DOWN EQUALS STAGFLATION (EVEN WORSE WHEN REAL NUMBERS HIT HOME), NEW
YORK MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN AGAIN, REAL ESTATE PLUNGING, HOME BUILDERS’
CONFIDENCE AT/NEAR RECORD LOWS, BAD NEWS BULLS SCENARIO AS ALL NEWS BAD BUT
STOCKS RALLIED (AT BEST GIVING THEM BENEFIT OF DOUBT, A SHORT-COVERING RALLY)
AS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AT LOWEST POINT IN 28 YEARS FOR GOOD REASONS,
FORECLOSURES UP 50% TO RECORD HIGH LEVELS, COMMODITIES (IE., CORN, ETC.) UP
SHARPLY OWING TO MIDWEST FLOODS WHICH WILL ALSO IMPACT OIL TO THE UPSIDE
GOING FORWARD AS LESS ETHANOL SUPPLIES/HIGHER PRICES, ONE RADIO REPORTER INTERVIEWS
ECONOMIST WHO INDICATES SCEPTICISM REGARDING (IE., INFLATION, ETC.) NUMBERS
WHICH HE BELIEVES ARE WORSE THAN REPORTED (HE’S RIGHT) BUT STILL MORE THAN
EXPECTED UP .6% AND UP MOST IN 6 MONTHS (INFLATION NUMBERS FUDGED FOR FED),
ALL-TIME HIGH REPOSSESSIONS UP 158%, JOBLESS CLAIMS UP MORE THAN EXPECTED AT
HEFTY 384,000, RETAIL SALES UP MORE THAN EXPECTED 1.4% (EXCLUDING AUTOS-SMART
MOVE FOR NUMBERS SAKE AND WALL STREET FRAUD), BUT INVENTORIES OF GOODS ROSE
(THERE’S A LITTLE COST-ACCOUNTING TRICK WHICH FRAUDS ON WALL STREET WOULD
CELEBRATE/ENCOURAGE SINCE QUALITY OF EARNINGS IS APPARENTLY NO LONGER SOMETHING
THEY VALUE-SELL THE SIZZLE/B**L S**T/AND WHAT IS LEAST UNDERSTOOD IS THERE
MODUS POERANDI/MANTRA, VIZ., OVER-PRODUCE GOODS FOR SALE (THE HIGHER INVENTORIES
JUST REPORTED) AND ATTRIBUTE FIXED COSTS TO GREATER NUMBER OF GOODS WHICH WOULD
INCREASE PAPER PROFITS FOR THOSE GOODS SOLD IN THE QUARTER (BE ESPECIALLY WARY
SINCE COMPUTERIZATION HAS MADE SUCH INVENTORY SURPLUSES AND THE CYCLICAL
DOWNTURNS THEREBY RELATIVELY RARE/MINISCULE) AND THEIR RETAIL SALES INCLUDES
THOSE HIGH OIL PRICES, BERNANKE JAWBONES DOLLAR UP, RIIIIIGHT, SOME
REALITY CATCHES UP AS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE JUMPS TO 5.5% WHILE INTERNATIONAL LAW
SCOFFLAW ISRAEL SAYS ATTACKING IRAN INEVITABLE AS OIL ANALYST SAYS $300 OIL IF
UN RESOLUTION VIOLATOR/WAR CRIMINAL ISRAEL DOES, BELYING THE FALSE DATA,
IE., 6-5-08 UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS DOWN UNEXPECTEDLY 18,000 TO STILL HIGH 357,000,
ETC., REMAINING PROBLEMS INCLUDING HOME EQUITY AT LOWEST LEVELS SINCE
WW2, DOWNGRADES ON FINANCIALS INCLUDING AMBAC AND MBIA, ADP, A JERSEY
BASED COMPANY NOT UNFAMILIAR TO THE FRAUD/CRIME OF PLACING FAKE/NON-EXISTENT
EMPLOYEES ON PAYROLLS TO FACILITATE (ILLEGAL/DRUG) MONEY LAUNDERING PLAYING
BALL (I’M SURE FOR A PRICE/FAVOR) WITH THE FRAUDS ON WALL STREET/ADMIN. WITH
ALLEGED, UNEXPECTED INCREASE IN PRIVATE SECTOR JOBS, NET WORTH/WEALTH IN U.S.
DOWN 11% ACROSS THE BOARD, DOLLAR DOWN AS EUROPE RATIONALLY CONFRONTS INFLATION
AND HINTS AT RATE INCREASES, OIL UP SHARPLY, BIG DISCOUNTERS’ GAINS HARDLY MAKE
FOR A POSITIVE RETAIL CLIMATE WITH SHOPPING LEVELS DOWN 12-16%, MANUFACTURING
INDEX STILL BELOW 50 INDICATING CONTRACTION, CONSTRUCTION DOWN, INFLATION UP
(THAT EQUALS STAGFLATION), AIRLINES EXPECTING $2.3 BILLION LOSS INSTEAD OF PREVIOUSLY
PROJECTED PROFIT, LARGEST PRICE DECLINES FOR REAL ESTATE OF RECORD –14.4%
(-22% IN THE LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS) ACCORDING TO CASE-SHILLER INDEX, CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE AT LOWEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS, BUT BAD NEWS BULLS RALLY STOCKS ON THE
BETTER THAN EXPECTED FAKE DATA ALONG WITH PLAIN BAD NEWS AS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
READING AT 28 YEAR LOW, CONSUMER SPENDING FLAT ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION,
INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AT RECORD HIGHS WHILE 55% BELIEVE GOVERNMENT ECONOMIC
POLICY IS POOR (I’M SURPRISED AT THE LOW PERCENTAGE RELATIVE TO REALITY), DROP
IN OIL INVENTORIES (OIL DROPS) AND FAKE GOV’T REPORT REVISING FIRST QUARTER
GROWTH TO .9% (SUUUUURE… YOU THINK THE ‘WHAT HAPPENED’ REVELATIONS,
SUBSTANTIVELY REPORTED ON THIS WEBSITE LONG AGO (PRE-WAR), HAD SOMETHING TO DO
WITH THE FUDGING ), AND THINGS ARE NOT AS BAD AS THEY REALLY ARE … GREAT …
RIIIIIGHT. ANALYST EMPASIZES TREASURY YIELDS AT HIGHEST POINT THIS YEAR, WEAK
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (WHICH TRANSLATES INTO WEAK SPENDING), FINANCIAL MELT-DOWN
FAR FROM OVER AS REGIONAL BANKS BEGIN TO TAKE HITS WHILE OIL ANALYST CITES
UPWARD PRESSURE ON PRICES AND TOUGH ENVIRONMENT FOR REFINERS. DON’T
FORGET: THIS ELECTION YEAR PRINT AND SPEND WORTHLESS WEIMAR DOLLARS, SPIKE IN
GOVERNMENT PAYROLLS, FAKE/FUDGE DATA/REPORTS, ETC., CAN’T CONTINUE IN LIGHT OF
SUBSTANTIAL DEFICITS AND THE FANTASY BUBBLE WILL BURST POST ELECTION. Bank
issues global stock and credit crash alert... Write
Offs to Top $1.3 Trillion.Who didn’t see this coming? The Next Crisis:
'Credit Default Swaps'-- Subprime is a Just a 'Vorspeise' U.S. faces global funding crisis, warns Merrill Lynch More doom for global economy Visualizing Dow 6,000
] U.S. Economy: The Worst is Yet to Come , U.S. Bank Failures Loom , New reports give bleak outlook on housing, economy,
Foreclosures hit a
record high — and more coming, Ford readies white-collar layoffs as sales tumble While GM Shutters 4
North american Factories/Lays off Workers (Reuters), April insured mortgage defaults rise
(Reuters))
(9-23-10) Dow 10,662 -77 Nasdaq 2,327 -7 S&P 500
1,125 -9 [CLOSE- OIL
$75.18 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH
$147.27) GAS
$2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/
$3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) /
GOLD $1,296 (+24% for year 2009)
/ SILVER $20.22 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,638 (+56% for year 2009)
/ DOLLAR= .74 EURO, 84 YEN, .63 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go -
LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.56% …..… AP
Business Highlights
...Yahoo Market Update...
T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is
coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC
The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(9-22-10) Dow 10,739 -22 Nasdaq 2,334 -15 S&P 500
1,134 -5 [CLOSE- OIL
$74.94 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH
$147.27) GAS
$2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/
$3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) /
GOLD $1,274 (+24% for year 2009)
/ SILVER $20.65 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,623 (+56% for year 2009)
/ DOLLAR= .74 EURO, 84 YEN, .63 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go -
LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.55% …..… AP
Business Highlights
...Yahoo Market Update...
T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is
coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC
The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(9-21-10) Dow 10,761 +7 Nasdaq
2,349 -6 S&P 500
1,139 -3 [CLOSE- OIL
$73.52 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH
$147.27) GAS
$2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/
$3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) /
GOLD $1,274 (+24% for year 2009)
/ SILVER $20.65 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,623 (+56% for year 2009)
/ DOLLAR= .75 EURO, 84 YEN, .63 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go -
LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.59% …..… AP
Business Highlights
...Yahoo Market Update...
T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is coming!
‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC
The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(9-20-10) Dow 10,753 +145 Nasdaq
2,355 +40 S&P 500
1,142 +17 [CLOSE-
OIL $74.86 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH
$147.27) GAS
$2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/
$3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) /
GOLD $1,280 (+24% for year 2009)
/ SILVER $20.80 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,623 (+56% for year 2009)
/ DOLLAR= .76 EURO, 85 YEN, .64 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go -
LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.71% …..… AP
Business Highlights
...Yahoo Market Update...
T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International
This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is
coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC
The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(9-17-10) Dow 10,608 +13 Nasdaq
2,315 +12 S&P 500
1,125 -0- [CLOSE-
OIL $73.66 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH
$147.27) GAS
$2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/
$3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) /
GOLD $1,278 (+24% for year 2009)
/ SILVER $20.83 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,609 (+56% for year 2009)
/ DOLLAR= .76 EURO, 85 YEN, .63 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go -
LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.75% …..… AP
Business Highlights
...Yahoo Market Update...
T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International
This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is
coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC
The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(9-16-10) Dow 10,595 +22 Nasdaq
2,303 +2 S&P 500
1,125 -1 [CLOSE- OIL
$74.57 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH
$147.27) GAS
$2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/
$3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) /
GOLD $1,274 (+24% for year 2009)
/ SILVER $20.74 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,608 (+56% for year 2009)
/ DOLLAR= .76 EURO, 85 YEN, .63 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go -
LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.76% …..… AP
Business Highlights
...Yahoo Market Update...
T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer
(01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is coming!
‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC
The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(9-15-10) Dow 10,573 +46 Nasdaq
2,301 +11 S&P 500
1,125 +3 [CLOSE- OIL
$76.02 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH
$147.27) GAS
$2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/
$3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) /
GOLD $1,268 (+24% for year 2009)
/ SILVER $20.57 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,598 (+56% for year 2009)
/ DOLLAR= .76 EURO, 85 YEN, .63 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go -
LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.72% …..… AP
Business Highlights
...Yahoo Market Update...
T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International
This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is
coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC
The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(9-14-10) Dow 10,526 -18 Nasdaq
2,289 +4 S&P 500
1,121 -1 [CLOSE- OIL
$76.80 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH
$147.27) GAS
$2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/
$3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) /
GOLD $1,272 (+24% for year 2009)
/ SILVER $20.43 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,589 (+56% for year 2009)
/ DOLLAR= .77 EURO, 85 YEN, .64 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go -
LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.68% …..… AP
Business Highlights
...Yahoo Market Update...
T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is coming!
‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC
The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(9-13-10) Dow 10,544 +81 Nasdaq
2,285 +43 S&P 500
1,122 +12 [CLOSE- OIL $77.19 (-54%
for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS
$2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/
$3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) /
GOLD $1,247 (+24% for year 2009)
/ SILVER $20.15 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,565 (+56% for year 2009)
/ DOLLAR= .77 EURO, 83 YEN, .65 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go -
LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.74% …..… AP
Business Highlights
...Yahoo Market Update...
T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International
This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is
coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC
The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(9-10-10) Dow 10,462 +47 Nasdaq
2,242 +6 S&P 500
1,109 +5 [CLOSE- OIL $76.45 (-54%
for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS
$2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/
$3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) /
GOLD $1,248 (+24% for year 2009)
/ SILVER $19.83 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,551 (+56% for year 2009)
/ DOLLAR= .78 EURO, 83 YEN, .65 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go -
LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.79% …..… AP
Business Highlights
...Yahoo Market Update...
T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International
This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is
coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC
The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(9-9-10) Dow 10,415 +28 Nasdaq
2,236 +7 S&P 500
1,104 +5 [CLOSE- OIL $74.67 (-54%
for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS
$2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/
$3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) /
GOLD $1,251 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $19.86 (+47% for year 2009)
PLATINUM $1,553 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .78 EURO, 83 YEN, .64
POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.76% …..… AP
Business Highlights
...Yahoo Market Update...
T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International
This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is
coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC
The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(9-8-10) Dow 10,387 +46 Nasdaq
2,229 +20 S&P 500
1,098 +7 [CLOSE- OIL $74.67 (-54%
for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS
$2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/
$3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) /
GOLD $1,258 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $19.79 (+47% for year 2009)
PLATINUM $1,553 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .78 EURO, 83 YEN, .64
POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.65% …..… AP
Business Highlights
...Yahoo Market Update...
T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is coming!
‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC
The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(9-7-10) Dow 10,340 -107 Nasdaq
2,209 -25 S&P 500
1,091 -12 [CLOSE- OIL
$74.09 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH
$147.27) GAS
$2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/
$3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) /
GOLD $1,259 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $19.91 (+47% for year 2009)
PLATINUM $1,555 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .78 EURO, 83 YEN, .65
POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.60% …..… AP
Business Highlights
...Yahoo Market Update...
T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International
This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is
coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC
The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(9-3-10) Dow 10,447 +127 Nasdaq
2,233 +33 S&P 500
1,104 +14 [CLOSE- OIL
$74.60 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH
$147.27) GAS
$2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/
$3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) /
GOLD $1,251 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $19.95 (+47% for year 2009)
PLATINUM $1,551 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .77 EURO, 84 YEN, .64
POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.71% …..… AP
Business Highlights
...Yahoo Market Update...
T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International
This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is
coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC
The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(9-2-10) Dow 10,320 +51 Nasdaq 2,200 +23 S&P 500
1,090 +10 [CLOSE- OIL
$74.02 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH
$147.27) GAS
$2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/
$3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) /
GOLD $1,253 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $19.65 (+47% for year 2009)
PLATINUM $1,545 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .77 EURO, 84 YEN, .64
POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.63% …..… AP
Business Highlights
...Yahoo Market Update...
T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International
This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is
coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC
The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(9-1-10) Dow 10,269 +255 Nasdaq
2,176 +62 S&P 500
1,080 +30 [CLOSE- OIL
$73.91 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH
$147.27) GAS
$2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/
$3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) /
GOLD $1,248 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $19.39 (+47% for year 2009)
PLATINUM $1,535 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .78 EURO, 84 YEN, .64
POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.58% …..… AP
Business Highlights
...Yahoo Market Update...
T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International
This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is
coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC
The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(8-31-10) Dow 10,014 +5 Nasdaq
2,114 -6 S&P 500
1,049 -0- [CLOSE- OIL
$71.92 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH
$147.27) GAS
$2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/
$3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) /
GOLD $1,251 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $19.39 (+47% for year 2009)
PLATINUM $1,526 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .78 EURO, 84 YEN, .65
POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.47% …..… AP
Business Highlights
...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price
Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer
(01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is coming!
‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC
The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(8-30-10) Dow 10,009 -141 Nasdaq
2,119 -34 S&P 500
1,048 -16 [CLOSE- OIL
$74.70 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH
$147.27) GAS
$2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/
$3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) /
GOLD $1,238 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $19.03 (+47% for year 2009)
PLATINUM $1,523 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .79 EURO, 84 YEN, .64
POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.53% …..… AP
Business Highlights
...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price
Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International
This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is
coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC
The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(8-27-10) Dow 10,151 +165 Nasdaq
2,153 +35 S&P 500
1,065 +17 [CLOSE- OIL
$75.19 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH
$147.27) GAS
$2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/
$3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) /
GOLD $1,242 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $19.06 (+47% for year 2009)
PLATINUM $1,545 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .78 EURO, 85 YEN, .64
POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.65% …..… AP
Business Highlights
...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price
Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International
This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is
coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC
The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(8-26-10) Dow 9,986 -74 Nasdaq
2,118 -17 S&P 500
1,047 -8 [CLOSE- OIL $73.36 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS
$2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/
$3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) /
GOLD $1,238 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $18.98 (+47% for year 2009)
PLATINUM $1,539 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .78 EURO, 84 YEN, .64
POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.48% …..… AP
Business Highlights
...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price
Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is coming!
‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC
The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(8-25-10) Dow 10,060 +19 Nasdaq
2,141 +17 S&P 500
1,055 +3 [CLOSE- OIL $72.52 (-54%
for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS
$2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/
$3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) /
GOLD $1,241 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $19.03 (+47% for year 2009)
PLATINUM $1,535 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .78 EURO, 84 YEN, .64
POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.54% …..… AP
Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price
Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is coming!
‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC
The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(8-24-10) Dow 10,040 -134 Nasdaq
2,123 -36 S&P 500
1,051 -15 [CLOSE- OIL $71.63 (-54%
for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS
$2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/
$3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) /
GOLD $1,233 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $18.38 (+47% for year 2009)
PLATINUM $1,517 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .79 EURO, 84 YEN, .64
POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.50% …..… AP
Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price
Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International
This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is
coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC
The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(8-23-10) Dow 10,174 -35 Nasdaq
2,159 -20 S&P 500
1,067 -4 [CLOSE- OIL $73.11 (-54%
for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS
$2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/
$3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) /
GOLD $1,226 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $17.99 (+47% for year
2009) PLATINUM $1,506 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .78 EURO, 85 YEN,
.64 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD
2.61% …..… AP
Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price
Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is coming!
‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC
The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(8-20-10) Dow 10,213 -58 Nasdaq
2,179 –0- S&P 500
1,071 -4 [CLOSE- OIL $73.85 (-54%
for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS
$2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/
$3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) /
GOLD $1,228 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $18.03 (+47% for year
2009) PLATINUM $1,509 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .78 EURO, 85 YEN,
.64 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD
2.61% …..… AP
Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price
Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is
coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC
The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(8-19-10) Dow 10,271 -144 Nasdaq
2,179 -37 S&P 500
1,075 -19 [CLOSE- OIL $74.43 (-54%
for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS
$2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/
$3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) /
GOLD $1,235 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $18.33 (+47% for year
2009) PLATINUM $1,535 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .78 EURO, 85 YEN,
.64 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD
2.58% …..… AP
Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price
Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is
coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC
The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(8-18-10) Dow 10,415 +9 Nasdaq
2,215 +6 S&P 500
1,094 +1 [CLOSE- OIL $75.42 (-54%
for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS
$2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/
$3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) /
GOLD $1,231 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $18.39 (+47% for year
2009) PLATINUM $1,535 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .78 EURO, 85 YEN,
.64 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD
2.64% …..… AP
Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price
Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is
coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC
The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(8-17-10) Dow 10,405 +103
Nasdaq
2,209 +27 S&P 500 1,092 +13 [CLOSE- OIL $75.77
(-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS
$2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/
$3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) /
GOLD $1,228 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $18.60 (+47% for year
2009) PLATINUM $1,545 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .77 EURO, 85 YEN,
.63 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD
2.65% …..… AP
Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price
Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF
Investors
The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is
coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850
on the S&P) by TPC The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(8-16-10) Dow 10,302 -1
Nasdaq
2,182 +8 S&P 500 1,079 –0- [CLOSE- OIL $75.24
(-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS
$2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/
$3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) /
GOLD $1,226 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $18.43 (+47% for year
2009) PLATINUM $1,534 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .77 EURO, 85 YEN,
.63 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD
2.58% …..… AP
Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price
Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF
Investors
The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is
coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850
on the S&P) by TPC The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(8-13-10) Dow 10,303 -17
Nasdaq
2,173 -17 S&P 500 1,079 -4 [CLOSE- OIL $75.40 (-54% for
year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS
$2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/
$3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) /
GOLD $1,217 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $18.11 (+47% for year
2009) PLATINUM $1,523 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .78 EURO, 86 YEN,
.64 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD
2.69% …..… AP
Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price
Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF
Investors
The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is
coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850
on the S&P) by TPC The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(8-12-10) Dow 10,320 -59
Nasdaq
2,190 -18 S&P 500 1,083 -6 [CLOSE- OIL $75.74
(-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS
$2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/
$3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) /
GOLD $1,217 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $18.06 (+47% for year
2009) PLATINUM $1,526 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .77 EURO, 86 YEN,
.63 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD
2.74% …..… AP
Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price
Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF
Investors
The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is
coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850
on the S&P) by TPC The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(8-11-10) Dow 10,379 -265
Nasdaq
2,209 -69 S&P 500 1,089 -32 [CLOSE- OIL $78.02 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27)
GAS $2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.13 REG./ $3.31
MID-GRADE/ $3.38 PREM./ $3.72 DIESEL)/ GOLD $1,199 (+24% for year
2009) / SILVER $17.90 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,506 (+56% for year
2009) / DOLLAR= .77 EURO, 85 YEN, .63 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you
go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.69% …..… AP
Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price
Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF
Investors
The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is
coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850
on the S&P) by TPC The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(8-10-10) Dow 10,644 -55
Nasdaq
2,277 -29 S&P 500 1,121 -7 [CLOSE- OIL $80.25 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27)
GAS $2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.13 REG./ $3.31
MID-GRADE/ $3.38 PREM./ $3.72 DIESEL)/ GOLD $1,198 (+24% for year
2009) / SILVER $18.16 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,539 (+56% for year
2009) / DOLLAR= .76 EURO, 85 YEN, .63 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can
you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.77% …..… AP
Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price
Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived website
file] Risks Lurk for ETF
Investors
The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is
coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850
on the S&P) by TPC The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(8-9-10) Dow 10,698+45
Nasdaq
2,305 +17 S&P 500 1,127 +6 [CLOSE- OIL $81.26 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27)
GAS $2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.13 REG./ $3.31
MID-GRADE/ $3.38 PREM./ $3.72 DIESEL)/ GOLD $1,203 (+24% for year
2009) / SILVER $18.38 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,545 (+56% for year
2009) / DOLLAR= .75 EURO, 85 YEN, .62 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can
you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.82% …..… AP
Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price
Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF
Investors
The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead: Risk
Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10
Forecast for 2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor
THE
COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is
coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850
on the S&P) by TPC The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(8-6-10) Dow 10,653 -21
Nasdaq
2,288 -5 S&P 500 1,122 -4 [CLOSE- OIL $80.70 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27)
GAS $2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.13 REG./ $3.31
MID-GRADE/ $3.38 PREM./ $3.72 DIESEL)/ GOLD $1,205 (+24% for year
2009) / SILVER $18.47 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,573 (+56% for year
2009) / DOLLAR= .75 EURO, 85 YEN, .62 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can
you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.82% …..… AP
Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price
Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived website
file] Risks Lurk for ETF
Investors
The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead: Risk
Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10
Forecast for 2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor
THE
COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is
coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850
on the S&P) by TPC The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(8-5-10) Dow 10,676 -5
Nasdaq
2,293 -10 S&P 500 1,126 -1 [CLOSE- OIL $82.01 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27)
GAS $2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.13 REG./ $3.31
MID-GRADE/ $3.38 PREM./ $3.72 DIESEL)/ GOLD $1,198 (+24% for year
2009) / SILVER $18.33 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,573 (+56% for year
2009) / DOLLAR= .75 EURO, 85 YEN, .62 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can
you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.92% …..… AP
Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price
Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived website
file] Risks Lurk for ETF
Investors
The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is
coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850
on the S&P) by TPC The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(8-4-10) Dow 10,680
+44 Nasdaq 2,303 +20
S&P 500
1,127 +6 [CLOSE-
OIL $82.47 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH
$147.27) GAS $2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.13 REG./ $3.31
MID-GRADE/ $3.38 PREM./ $3.72 DIESEL)/ GOLD $1,195 (+24% for year
2009) / SILVER $18.29 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,576 (+56% for year
2009) / DOLLAR= .76 EURO, 86 YEN, .62 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can
you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.95% …..…
AP Business Highlights
...Yahoo Market Update... T.
Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International This Is a Secular Bear Market and The
End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6 Theories On
Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived website
file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull
market that never was/were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in
gold Property
Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week
Ahead: Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for 2010 from
Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING
MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11
Clear Signs Economy Sinking Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal Charts
Trendsresearch.com
forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash
is coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This
Depression is just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY GRANTHAM’S
QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC
The Next Wave
of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great
Depression ABSOLUTELY, ABSURDLY,
RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
(7-28-10) Dow 10,498 -40 Nasdaq 2,265 -23 S&P 500 1,106 -8 [CLOSE- OIL $76.99 (-54% for
year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS
AND NUTS $3.13 REG./ $3.31 MID-GRADE/ $3.38 PREM./ $3.72 DIESEL)/
GOLD $1,163 [video] Gold Surges Stocks/Gold
Comparison (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $17.45
(+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,538 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .76
EURO, 87 YEN, .64 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE
YIELD 3.00% …..… AP Business
Highlights ...Yahoo Market
Update... ] T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds /
Currencies - Domestic / International This
Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD
PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6 Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10
[archived website file]
Risks Lurk for ETF Investors
The
bull market that never was/were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in
gold Property
Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010 The Week Ahead: Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan
31, 2010 01-13-10
Forecast for 2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE
COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10)
11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy
Is Dying And Is Simply Not Going To Recover Current
Economic / Fiscal Charts
Trendsresearch.com
forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is coming!
‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’ Must Read Economic / Financial
Data
This
Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net
MUST READ: JEREMY GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January
2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(6-28-10) Dow 10,138 -5 Nasdaq
2220 -3 S&P 500 1,074 -2 [CLOSE- OIL $78.25 (-54%
for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF
FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.30 MID-GRADE/ $3.36 PREM./ $3.71
DIESEL)/ GOLD $1,238 [video] Gold Surges Stocks/Gold Comparison (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $18.69
(+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,565 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .81
EURO, 89 YEN, .66 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE
YIELD 3.03% …..… AP
Business Highlights ...Yahoo
Market Update... ] T. Rowe Price
Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF
Investors
The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is
coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850
on the S&P) by TPC The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(6-25-10) Dow 10,144 -9 Nasdaq
2223 +6 S&P 500 1,076 +3 [CLOSE- OIL $78.86 (-54%
for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF
FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.30 MID-GRADE/ $3.36 PREM./ $3.71
DIESEL)/ GOLD $1,245 [video] Gold Surges Stocks/Gold Comparison (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $18.71
(+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,565 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .80
EURO, 89 YEN, .66 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE
YIELD 3.11% …..… AP
Business Highlights ...Yahoo
Market Update... ] T. Rowe Price
Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF
Investors
The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is
coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850
on the S&P) by TPC The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(6-24-10) Dow 10,153 -146 Nasdaq
2217 -37 S&P 500 1,074 -18 [CLOSE- OIL $76.46 (-54%
for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF
FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.30 MID-GRADE/ $3.36 PREM./ $3.71
DIESEL)/ GOLD $1,245 [video] Gold Surges Stocks/Gold Comparison (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $18.71
(+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,565 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .81
EURO, 89 YEN, .66 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE
YIELD 3.13% …..… AP
Business Highlights ...Yahoo
Market Update... ] T. Rowe Price
Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF
Investors
The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is
coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850
on the S&P) by TPC The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(6-23-10) Dow 10,298 +5 Nasdaq
2254 -8 S&P 500 1,092 -3 [CLOSE- OIL $76.35 (-54%
for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF
FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.30 MID-GRADE/ $3.36 PREM./ $3.71
DIESEL)/ GOLD $1,235 [video] Gold Surges Stocks/Gold Comparison (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $18.45
(+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,565 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .81
EURO, 89 YEN, .66 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE
YIELD 3.12% …..… AP
Business Highlights ...Yahoo
Market Update... ] T. Rowe Price
Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF
Investors
The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is
coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850
on the S&P) by TPC The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(6-22-10) Dow 10,293 -148 Nasdaq 2262 -27 S&P 500 1,095 -18
[CLOSE- OIL $77.85 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD
TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS
$3.11 REG./ $3.30 MID-GRADE/ $3.36 PREM./ $3.71 DIESEL)/ GOLD
$1,241 [video]
Gold Surges Stocks/Gold Comparison (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $18.90 (+47% for year 2009)
PLATINUM $1,574 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .81 EURO, 90 YEN, .67
POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.17%
…..…
AP Business Highlights
...Yahoo Market
Update... ]
T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is
coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850
on the S&P) by TPC The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(6-21-10) Dow 10,442 -8 Nasdaq 2289 -20 S&P 500 1,117 -4
[CLOSE- OIL $77.82 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD
TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $2.85 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS
$3.05 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/ $3.35 PREM./ $3.08 DIESEL)/ GOLD
$1,240 [video]
Gold Surges Stocks/Gold Comparison (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $19.08 (+47% for year 2009)
PLATINUM $1,576 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .80 EURO, 90 YEN, .67
POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.25%
…..…
AP Business Highlights
...Yahoo Market
Update... ]
T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is
coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850
on the S&P) by TPC The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(6-18-10) Dow 10,450 +16 Nasdaq 2309 +3 S&P 500 1,117 +1 [CLOSE- OIL $77.18 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $2.85 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.05 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/ $3.35 PREM./ $3.08 DIESEL)/ GOLD $1,258 [video] Gold Surges Stocks/Gold Comparison (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $19.17 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,587 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .80 EURO, 90 YEN, .67 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.22% …..… AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... ] T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic / International This Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6 Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010 The Week Ahead: Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10 Forecast for 2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking Economic Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’ Must Read Economic / Financial Data This Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC The Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY, ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
(6-17-10) Dow 10,434 +25 Nasdaq 2307 +1 S&P 500 1,116 +1 [CLOSE- OIL $76.79 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $2.85 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.05 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/ $3.35 PREM./ $3.08 DIESEL)/ GOLD $1,245 [video] Gold Surges Stocks/Gold Comparison (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $18.73 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,574 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .80 EURO, 90 YEN, .67 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.20% …..… AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... ] T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic / International This Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6 Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010 The Week Ahead: Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10 Forecast for 2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking Economic Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’ Must Read Economic / Financial Data This Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC The Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY, ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
(6-15-10) Dow 10,405 +213 Nasdaq 2305 +62
S&P 500 1,115 +26 [CLOSE- OIL $76.94
(-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $2.85 (reg. gas in LAND
OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.05 REG./ $3.26
MID-GRADE/ $3.35 PREM./ $3.08 DIESEL)/
GOLD $1,234 [video] Gold Surges Stocks/Gold Comparison (+24% for year
2009) / SILVER $18.57 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,545 (+56% for year
2009) / DOLLAR= .81 EURO, 91 YEN, .68
POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.31% …..…
AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market
Update... ] T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds
/ Currencies - Domestic /
International This
Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST
BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull
market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold
Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010 The Week Ahead: Risk
Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10 Forecast for 2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET
CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic /
Fiscal Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10
Crash is coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read Economic / Financial
Data This Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST
READ: JEREMY GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(6-14-10) Dow 10191 -20 Nasdaq 2243 +0 S&P 500 1,090 -2 [CLOSE- OIL $75.13
(-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $2.85 (reg. gas in LAND
OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.05 REG./ $3.26
MID-GRADE/ $3.35 PREM./ $3.08 DIESEL)/
GOLD $1,226 [video] Gold Surges Stocks/Gold Comparison (+24% for year 2009)
/ SILVER $18.41 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,535 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .81 EURO, 91 YEN, .68 POUND
STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.26% …..…
AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market
Update... ] T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds
/ Currencies - Domestic /
International This
Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST
BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull
market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold
Property
Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010 The Week Ahead: Risk
Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET
CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic /
Fiscal Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10
Crash is coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read Economic / Financial
Data This Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST
READ: JEREMY GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(6-11-10) Dow 10211 +38 Nasdaq 2243 +25
S&P 500 1,091 +4 [CLOSE- OIL $73.78
(-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $2.85 (reg. gas in LAND
OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.05 REG./ $3.26
MID-GRADE/ $3.35 PREM./ $3.08 DIESEL)/
GOLD $1,230 [video] Gold Surges Stocks/Gold Comparison (+24% for year 2009)
/ SILVER $18.23 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,539 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .82 EURO, 91 YEN, .68 POUND
STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.23% …..…
AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market
Update... ] T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds
/ Currencies - Domestic /
International This
Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST
BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull
market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold
Property
Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010 The Week Ahead: Risk
Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET
CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic /
Fiscal Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10
Crash is coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read Economic / Financial
Data This Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST
READ: JEREMY GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(6-10-10) Dow 10172 +273 Nasdaq 2218 +59
S&P 500 1,086 +31 [CLOSE- OIL $75.48
(-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $2.85 (reg. gas in LAND
OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.05 REG./ $3.26
MID-GRADE/ $3.35 PREM./ $3.08 DIESEL)/
GOLD $1,222 [video] Gold Surges Stocks/Gold Comparison (+24% for year
2009) / SILVER $18.35 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,535 (+56% for year
2009) / DOLLAR= .82 EURO, 91 YEN, .68
POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.32% …..…
AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market
Update... ] T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds
/ Currencies - Domestic /
International This
Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST
BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull
market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold
Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010 The Week Ahead: Risk
Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10 Forecast for 2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET
CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic /
Fiscal Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10
Crash is coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read Economic / Financial
Data This Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST
READ: JEREMY GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
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(6-9-10) Dow 9899 -41 Nasdaq 2158 -12
S&P 500 1,055 -6 [CLOSE- OIL $74.38
(-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $2.85 (reg. gas in LAND
OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.05 REG./ $3.26
MID-GRADE/ $3.35 PREM./ $3.08 DIESEL)/
GOLD $1,230 [video] Gold Surges Stocks/Gold Comparison (+24% for year
2009) / SILVER $18.19 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,535 (+56% for year
2009) / DOLLAR= .83 EURO, 91 YEN, .68
POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.20% …..…
AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market
Update... ] T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds
/ Currencies - Domestic /
International This
Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST
BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull
market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold
Property
Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010 The Week Ahead: Risk
Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET
CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic /
Fiscal Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10
Crash is coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read Economic / Financial
Data This Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST
READ: JEREMY GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
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(6-8-10) Dow 9939 +123 Nasdaq 2170 -3 S&P 500 1,062 +11 [CLOSE- OIL $72 (-54%
for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $2.85 (reg. gas in LAND OF
FRUITS AND NUTS $3.05 REG./ $3.26
MID-GRADE/ $3.35 PREM./ $3.08 DIESEL)/
GOLD $1,246 [video] Gold Surges Stocks/Gold Comparison (+24% for year
2009) / SILVER $18.38 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,547 (+56% for year
2009) / DOLLAR= .83 EURO, 91 YEN, .69
POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.26% …..…
AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market
Update... ] T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds
/ Currencies - Domestic /
International This
Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST
BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull
market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold
Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010 The Week Ahead: Risk
Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET
CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic /
Fiscal Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10
Crash is coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read Economic / Financial
Data This Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST
READ: JEREMY GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(6-7-10) Dow 9816 -115 Nasdaq 2173 -45 S&P 500 1,050 -14 [CLOSE- OIL $71.45
(-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $2.85 (reg. gas in LAND
OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.05 REG./ $3.26
MID-GRADE/ $3.35 PREM./ $3.08 DIESEL)/
GOLD $1,240 [video] Gold Surges Stocks/Gold Comparison (+24% for year
2009) / SILVER $18.16 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,539 (+56% for year
2009) / DOLLAR= .83 EURO, 91 YEN, .69
POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.23% …..…
AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market
Update... ] T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds
/ Currencies - Domestic /
International This
Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST
BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull
market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold
Property
Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010 The Week Ahead: Risk
Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET
CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic /
Fiscal Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10
Crash is coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read Economic / Financial
Data This Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST
READ: JEREMY GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(6-4-10) Dow 9,931 -323 Nasdaq 2219 -84 S&P 500 1,065 -38 [CLOSE- OIL $74.61
(-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $2.85 (reg. gas in LAND
OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.05 REG./ $3.26
MID-GRADE/ $3.35 PREM./ $3.08 DIESEL)/
GOLD $1,217 [video] Gold Surges Stocks/Gold Comparison (+24% for year 2009)
/ SILVER $17.51 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,526 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .83 EURO, 92 YEN, .69 POUND
STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.20% …..…
AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market
Update... ] T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds
/ Currencies - Domestic /
International This
Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST
BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull
market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold
Property
Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010 The Week Ahead: Risk
Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET
CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic /
Fiscal Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10
Crash is coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read Economic / Financial
Data This Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST
READ: JEREMY GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(6-3-10) Dow 10,235 +5 Nasdaq 2303 +22 S&P 500 1,103 +4 [CLOSE- OIL $74.61
(-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $2.85 (reg. gas in LAND
OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.05 REG./ $3.26
MID-GRADE/ $3.35 PREM./ $3.08 DIESEL)/
GOLD $1,210[video] Gold Surges Stocks/Gold Comparison (+24% for year
2009) / SILVER $17.93 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,535 (+56% for year
2009) / DOLLAR= .82 EURO, 92 YEN, .68
POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.37% …..…
AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market
Update... ] T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds
/ Currencies - Domestic /
International MARKET MANIPULATION AND HOW
THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull
market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold
Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010 The Week Ahead: Risk
Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET
CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic /
Fiscal Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10
Crash is coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read Economic / Financial
Data This Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST
READ: JEREMY GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
(6-2-10) Dow 10,249 +226 Nasdaq 2281 +58 S&P 500 1,098 +27 [CLOSE- OIL $72.86
(-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $2.85 (reg. gas in LAND
OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.05 REG./ $3.26
MID-GRADE/ $3.35 PREM./ $3.08 DIESEL)/
GOLD $1,222 [video] Gold Surges Stocks/Gold Comparison (+24% for year 2009)
/ SILVER $18.35 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,549 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .81 EURO, 92 YEN, .68 POUND
STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.33% …..…
AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market
Update... ] T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds
/ Currencies - Domestic /
International MARKET MANIPULATION AND HOW
THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull
market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold
Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010 The Week Ahead: Risk
Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10 Forecast for 2010 from Seeking Alpha
Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10
Crash is coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Must Read Economic / Financial
Data This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST
READ: JEREMY GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
AUGUST 31, 2009 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 28, 2009 -
BUSINESS UPDATES
NOBEL PRIZE WINNING
ECONOMIST: CRISIS AS BAD AS GREAT DEPRESSION OR WORSE Financial terrorism: US taxpayers bail out Wall Street
criminals $4 trillion plus is missing through U.S. federal agency
accounts managed by the NY Fed RICO Summary under penalty of perjury to the FBI at their request Reality overthrows ‘history’s actors’ Report
confirms Israel’s nuclear arsenal Roubini: Rate Cuts Temporarily and Minimally Reduce Crash
Risk, But Dow 7,000 Likely 'Sometime Next Year' Billion-Dollar Fund Manager; Gold To Hit $2,000, Dow To
Sink To 5,000 The
Crumbling U.S. Economy, Worse is Yet to Come Worst slump since Great Depression Rapid Downward Revisions in
Expected Economic Growth Recession
Will Last At Least Two Years: Roubini Recession Now: It's Deep and It's Going to Last a Long Time,
Sonders Says Economist Roubini Predicts Hedge Fund Failures, Panic,
Closed Markets Markets Nosedive on Grim
Economic News Evil Wall Street Exports Boomed With `Fools’ Born to Buy
Debt More from Grantham: S&P to 585. He called the
bubble, how could anyone doubt his valuation (although even lower is more
realistic)? U.S.
Economy: GDP Shrinks (even with fake better than expected GDP numbers from
corrupt commerce department) at Fastest Pace Since 2001 Credit-Default Swaps on US Treasuries Have Risen Nearly 40
Percent Since Bailout Law Signed; Now About the Same as on Mexican and Thai
Government Debt america’s credit rating will be downgraded Where'd the bailout money go? Shhhh, it's a secret fraud (AP) ECONOMICS GURU:
WORST IS YET TO COME; MARKETS WILL CLOSE FOR UP TO WEEK FROM PANIC... Washington
is Powerless to Stop the Coming Economic Depression Whitehead sees slump worse than Depression Dollar’s Days Numbered, Buy Commodities: Jim Rogers
America’s economic crisis is beyond the reach of
traditional solutions Cost Of Bailout Hits $8.5
Trillion Worst is yet to come for economy 'Crisis Only Just
Beginning': Crisis/Video Right About the Crash, Peter Schiff Sees
More Pain Ahead The Great Depression of the
21st Century: Collapse of the Real Economy “The Dollar Standard Is Coming
To An End” Busted
in Washington CIA Adds Economy To Threat
Updates Financial Disaster Will Lead to Civil Disorder in 2009 or
2010, Says Secret Citibank Memo Renowned
economist Mikhail Khazin : U.S. will soon face second “Great Depression” America Has No Means to Recover from a Depression US budget
deficit to reach USD 1 trillion Jim Rogers calls most big U.S. banks “bankrupt” BILLIONS
VANISH IN EPIC HEDGE FUND FRAUD Citadel suspends redemptions from two hedge funds World faces “total” financial meltdown: Bank of Spain chief
Check This Graph-Proof we are going into a Great
Depression. Notice MASSIVE job losses. Is there really any doubt any longer?
Paulson Was Behind Bailout Martial Law Threat Fed Hides Destination Of $2 Trillion In Bailout Money Another Prominent
Economist Forecasts Depression, Says Gold To Hit $2000 Fed Secretly
Lends $2 Trillion to Banksters without Oversight Depression Unrest Turmoil
Instability Riots all coming and SOON JAPAN: “There has never been
data this bad for any major economy - even in the great Depression”; “We are
literally looking at the unimaginable” Obama predicts more bank
failures California goes broke, halts $3.5
billion in payments It’s Getting Ugly: Economist Says Hoard Gold & Scotch Paul Joseph Watson | Williams predicts hyperinflationary
depression will mean a $100 dollar bill is worth less than toilet paper WORLD TO STAY IN SLUMP US is Already Bankrupt:
Analyst The
Geithner-Summers-Bernanke Plan to Prop Up Asset Prices Has Failed U.N. panel says world should
ditch dollar Not Just a Few Bad Apples - Corruption is Systemic in
America 65 Trillion -
U.S. Financial Obligations Exceed The Entire World’s GDP RECORD:
NATIONAL DEBT HITS $11 TRILLION... US Depression -The Truth Is Here
The Economist, a Widely
Respected and Authoritative Financial/Economic Publication: U.S. In Depression,
Not Recession Video:
Crash Will be Worse than Great Depression Great
Recession/Depression of 2008, et seq., Worse Than All Others IMF warns of Great
Depression Stocks Could Drop 20%, No Safe Haven: Dr. Reality Celente Correctly Predicts
Revolution, Food Riots, Tax Rebellions By 2012 Former chief economist: U.S. in a depression Merrill Lynch’s Chief Economist: We’re Already In a
Depression Ray Dalio: A Long and Painful Depression - Barron's
Interview Gerald Celente Predicts
Economic Armageddon by 2012 This DEPRESSION will last
23-26 YEARS! Government is POWERLESS! Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 What the Pros Say: US Is Now
‘Bankrupt’ ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’
Secretary of Labor Reich:
Unemployment Numbers Show We’re Already In a Depression Celente: U.S. Has Entered “The
Greatest Depression” Entering the Greatest Depression
in History Andrew Gavin Marshall | The economic
crisis is anything but over, the “solutions” have been akin to putting a
band-aid on an amputated arm.
September 30, 2010
The Bulls Are Looking Tired by John
Nyaradi ‘Today's Indicators:
Negative action in the U.S. markets and
around the world yesterday left me with the distinct impression that the bulls
are getting tired.
On a fundamental basis, the bad news
was headlined by that pesky unemployment problem just won’t go away with a rise
in weekly claims yesterday, while on the corporate front, Rite Aid (RAD) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) got whacked for not meeting earnings
expectations and Blockbuster (BBI) filed for
bankruptcy.
The Senate decided they didn’t want to
deal with the soon to expire “Bush Tax Cuts” until after the election which
inserts more than a hint of uncertainty as well as a “ticking clock” into this
all important situation.
Overseas storm clouds continued
gathering (yet again) as Ireland is in a confirmed double dip with its 2nd
Quarter GDP contracting while Germany’s growth slowed more than expected.
Finally, battle scarred veteran Paul
Volcker summed it all up by saying that “the financial system is broken” and
that it is “so difficult to get out of this recession because of the basic
disequilibrium in the real economy.” (Mr. Volcker obviously doesn’t watch
financial television.)
On the technical front, the S&P
sliced right back down through the 1130-1135 level that had provided such
strong resistance and now was supposed to be support and thus broke the upwards
trend line in place since the beginning of the early September rally.
Yesterday’s close at 1124 leaves the
index 8 points above its 200 Day Moving Average, the widely accepted
demarcation line of bull and bear markets.
Internals continue to weaken in terms
of breadth, Advance/Decline line, and Up/Down Volume, all indicating lack of
strength in the upwards direction.
Today we get Durable Goods and New Home
Sales but looming ever larger next week are some huge reports that we’ll
discuss in detail on the weekend report.
For today, Wall Street Sector Selector
remains in the “Red Flag” mode, expecting lower prices ahead.
Disclosure: SH, SEF, EFZ, VXX,
SPY Put Option’
This is an especially great
opportunity to sell / take profits! There’s an old axiom that remains as true today as ever; viz.,
‘don’t look a gift horse in the mouth’, that is of course unless you’re of the
‘buy and hold’ mentality. Specifically, if you recall the recent market rally
on the better than expected unemployment numbers from the government, albeit
false data based on estimates that of course were as true as ‘bernie madoff is
a reliable, trustworthy, seasoned professional with whom to entrust your money
for investment’. The unemployment numbers just came in decidedly worse than
expected (and in the ‘wrong direction’, that spin accorded ‘down but not as bad
as before’ b*** s*** ) yet the market has this day rallied like no tomorrow
with used home foreclosure sales the other ‘heralded’ good news. This is about
keeping the suckers sucked in for now, and window dressing for the month and
the 3rd quarter which can be and is manipulated, particularly with computerized
(and high frequency) trades and which commissions they’ll get again on the way
down. There is nothing to support these overbought stock prices, fundamentally
or otherwise. These are desperate criminals ‘at work’. Even wall street shill
Buffett is saying we’re still in a recession (depression) Buffett: We're Still in a Recession [ Wow! A moment of lucidity from Buffet
which belies his prior ‘rosy wall street shill talk’, but his greater candor is
welcomed nonetheless although the ‘d’ (for depression) word is more appropriate
and accurate.] Roche ‘Warren
Buffett disagrees with the NBER. He says we’re still in a recession and likely
to remain in a recession for quite a while. These comments are far more
tempered than the ones that were published last week. Of
course, my favorite part in this clip is where he says the U.S. government did
the right thing in responding to the crisis. They certainly did the right thing
for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
shareholders. Whether or not they did the right thing for America is a whole
other story…’ [ And, of course we now know that it wasn’t the right thing for
america … The question inevitably
becomes, ‘Who’s manipulating who, what, and why? After all, we know defacto bankrupt
america’s pervasively corrupt! ] … Then of course there’s been the
full-moon-effect which enhances the lunacy already typical of the frauds on
wall street.
Economists Herald New Great
Depression The world is currently
experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression, according to a
prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others now forecasting
ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.) , and my position and that of demographer Dent (This is a global
depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up
move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has
been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with
great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell
into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam /
fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will
not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are
criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.
Krugman: It's All Downhill From
Here Cullen Roche Love him or hate him
Paul Krugman has been awfully right with regards to the macro picture in the last
few years. He’s one of the rare economists who had the foresight to see the
housing bubble and the likelihood of economic downturn that would result from
it. Krugman recently caused a stir when he said the US economy was headed for
the third depression. He isn’t back down from that outlook:
I’ve had a couple of conversations
lately with people who follow politics and public affairs, but aren’t that
close to the economic discussion — and I’ve discovered that there are two
comforting delusions still out there.
Delusion #1 is that we’re on the road
to recovery, just more slowly than we’d like; to be fair, the White House keeps
saying this.
But it’s not at all true. GDP is growing
below potential; employment, even if you focus just on private employment, is
growing more slowly than the working-age population. If you ask how long it
will take us to return to, say, 5 percent unemployment on the current track,
the answer is forever.
Delusion #2 is the belief that the
stimulus may yet do the trick, because there are still substantial funds
unspent. I tried to deal with this last year.
The level of GDP depends not on total funds spent, but on the rate at which
funds are being spent, which has already peaked; GDP growth on the rate of
change in the rate at which funds are being spent, which peaked last year. It’s
all downhill from here.
Harry
Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012). ]
Examining the Current Market: No Fear Slusiewicz ‘…On Friday 98% of the S&P 500 companies were up.
Generally fast run ups like the one we’ve just gone through, followed by
exponential blow offs like what we witnessed on Friday causes me to take a more
cautious point of view. It seems that the Fed is attempting to juice the
markets with their Permanent Open Market Operations. This week alone the
Federal Reserve purchased $11.15 Billion worth of various US Treasury
securities from the seven primary banks. What the banks did what that immediate
boatload of cash is unknown, but one would suspect that a portion of those
founds found its way into the stock market. The alternative is to believe that
the negative, but less bad durable goods order number and the second worst
ever, but still improved from July’s all time low, new home sales drove the
markets up 2% on Friday…’
Fridays
Rally Makes No Sense at All
Reitmeister
‘Thursday Reity Says: “For now, let’s just assume a healthy little pullback
is in store and we’ll take the rest as it comes.“
Friday Reity enjoys foot in mouth sandwich for lunch.Why did the
market explode higher on Friday? Maybe because it often does the exact opposite
of what makes sense.Yes, you might read articles that say the Durable Goods
report was the reason for the market to roar higher. Hey folks, it wasn’t that
good, or durable, of a report to make investors feel like our economy is in
great shape.
Some other experts may point out that this is a short covering
rally. Meaning the hedge funds and traders are taking their money out of recent
shorts that are now going awry and that creates additionally buying pressure
that moves up the market in the short run. Perhaps that has some validity.And
some other experts will talk about how we have gone above key technical levels
that are bullish indicators. (Hey, weren’t these same technicians boo-hooing
about the Hindenburg Cross just a few weeks ago and how that spelled doom for
the market?)
Add it all up and we see why investing is so tricky. And why
it’s hard to be 100% bullish or 100% bearish sometimes. The key is to strike a
good balance between the possibilities of what might happen. Meaning that when
you invest you have to realize there are good odds you can be wrong. So best to
hedge your bets a little to realize that the other side of the argument may
have some credence.
My Two Cents
(During the day I read many other investment articles of
interest. Here are links to some new ones with my 2 cents added underneath).
Most (And Least) Valuable Global Brand NamesWhat's
funny is that there is very little correlation between a highly respected brand
and share price appreciation. Probably because most of these brands are former
growth stories that are now much larger and the PE keeps getting compacted to
get in line with current growth expectations. Certainly true for MSFT over the
last several years. And for GOOG's underperformance this year (by the way, I
think that move is way overdone and time to buy GOOG which is now a nice large
cap GARP stock).
Goldman's 10 Stocks for Dividend Growth
Is this the best set of 10 dividend yielding stocks? Probably
not.
The more important issue is that probably any combination of 10
high yielding stocks will outperform the low yielding 10 year Treasury over
that 10 year stretch.
Warren Buffett: The Recession Is Not Over
Its a recognition that corporations can quickly cut costs and
improve profitability making it seem like "alls well". However, John
& Joan Q. Public are the "cost that gets cut" and for them the
recession is alive and kicking.
News
for bank
failures september 24, 2010
Regulators
close banks in Florida, Washington Ryan Holeywell | September 24, 2010
8:59 PM Regulators closed banks in Florida and Washington Friday night,
bringing the total number of bank failures ... Bank Failure
Friday - September 24, 2010 - Happy Failure Friday
Everyone! With the approach of the election season, Barry and his
"crack" financial team (those who haven't announced ... FDIC: Federal
Deposit Insurance Corporation Bank Closing Information - September 24,
2010 ... Complete Failed Bank List · Failed Financial Institution
Contact Search · Bank Failures in Brief ...
Housing
and Jobs and Leading Economic Indicators...Oh My!
European
Debt Worries Resurface
Look Out Below! Harding ‘…And at a time when last week’s weekly AAII investor sentiment poll
showed 50.9% bullish? That’s the highest level of bullishness and complacency
since it reached 54.6% bullish in October, 2007 near the October, 2007 top of
the 2003-2007 bull market. The other higher reading was 53.3% bullish on May 1,
2008, as the market ended a bear market rally and plunged into its unfavorable
season leg down of 2008. Other readings not quite as high, but at interesting
times: The poll reached 49.2% bullish just prior to the Jan/Feb correction this
year, and 48.5% bullish at the April top this year …’
Drudgereport: FBI Serves 'Terrorism'
Warrants in Chicago, Minneapolis...
...raids homes of war
protesters
Justice Official Calls
Dismissal of Black Panther Case 'Travesty'...
...Says Dept. Discourages
'Race Neutral' Enforcement of Laws...
PAPER: QUEEN TRIED TO USE
STATE POVERTY FUND TO HEAT BUCKINGHAM PALACE...
Thursday
Market Outlook: Listening to Herbert Hoover Instratrader Indicators:
‘Red
Flag: We Expect Lower Prices Ahead
Daily Technical Sentiment Indicators: Optimistic (Bearish)
Short Term Market Condition: Overbought (short term bearish)
Short Term Trend: Up
Medium Term Trend: Down
Long Term Trend: Down
So
far, this week’s news and market action looks decidedly deflationary and even
depression-like and so I went back in time to see what President Herbert
Hoover, often blamed for the Great Depression, had to say about his times and
to see what we might be able to learn from him about the times we live in.
Some
of his most prescient and applicable quotes were:
“Let
me remind you that credit is the lifeblood of business, the lifeblood of prices
and jobs.” (Certainly an issue today and our money center banks should pay
heed)
“It
is just as important that business keep out of government as that government
keep out of business.” (No doubt about it. Every policy maker in America needs
to understand this.)
I’m
the only person of distinction who has ever had a depression named for him.”
(President Obama might be the second.)
“Economic depression cannot be cured by legislative action or
executive pronouncement. Economic wounds must be healed by the action of the
cells of the economic body – the producers and consumers themselves.”
(Dr.
Bernanke and his colleagues really need to “get” this one, and judging from
what I’m reading this week, I’m not sure they do.)
And,
finally, old Herb had a morbid sense of humor when he said, “Blessed are
the young for they shall inherit the national debt.” (Unfortunately still
too true today.)
So
apparently as the old saying goes: “The more things change, the more they stay
the same.”
This
week so far has been more than a little spooky and reminiscent of Herbert
Hoover’s times as we listened to Dr. Bernanke and the FOMC warn of deflation
and further quantitative easing and then read today’s housing report which
indicated that home prices declined in July by -0.5%.
The
FOMC said that “the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in
recent months…and that “employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing
starts are at a depressed level. Bank lending has continued to contract, but at
a reduced rate in recent months.”
“Measures
of underlying inflation are currently at levels somewhat below those the
Committee judges most consistent, over the longer run, with its mandate to
promote maximum employment and price stability…..the Committee will continue to
monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and is prepared to provide
additional accommodation if needed to support economic recovery and to return
inflation, over time, to levels consistent with its mandate.”
So
in a nutshell, deflation is a major concern, the $1.5 Trillion the Fed has
thrown on this fire has failed to work and now they stand ready to throw more
money at this problem in hopes of keeping our economic ship from sinking.
It’s
clear what the market thinks of all of this as Treasury bonds continue to rally
and gold heads for the stratosphere. Equities cheered Dr. Bernanke’s comments
at first but then, realizing that deflation is a bad thing, settled back down
to well below the top of the recent range.
One
only needs to look at history to see that government efforts have little impact
on ending depressions and deflation. The Great Depression didn’t end until the
onset of World War II and Japan is a prime example of the ongoing failure of
quantitative easing policies as they enter their second “lost decade.”
Today
comes the jobs report, home sales and leading economic indicators and we’ll see
if any light shines from this most recent data.
Technically,
markets remain overbought and due for a correction and so from a fundamental,
technical and seasonal perspective, we are in treacherous waters for sure.
We
need to learn from Herbert Hoover’s words and experience or fall victim to
George Santayana’s famous warning, “Those who do not remember the past are
condemned to repeat it.”
Wall
Street Sector Selector remains positioned to the “short” side of the market,
expecting choppy to lower prices ahead.
Disclosure: SH, EFZ, SEF, SPY put option’
Am
I Too Bearish? [ In a word, No! ] Cullen Roche ‘1) Am I too bearish? Some commenters have noted that I seem
a bit too bearish all the time. Some have even gone so far as to imply that I
am a permabear. These are fair comments, but require some clarification. The
other day I mentioned my top down approach to the markets. Most of
what I write about here at Pragmatic Capitalism is a macro view. Therefore, you
get a heavy dose of macro with a dollop of micro. I am of the belief that we
are in a secular bear and a balance sheet recession. Therefore, you get a
pretty heavy dose of bearish arguments thrown at you. Nonetheless, I try to
balance the site out with some of the more reasonable bullish arguments. What I
am not, however, is a permabear. Within this macro outlook I have been bullish
at many of the most opportune moments in the last few years. Most notable was my bottom call on March 8th when everyone in
the universe was negative and I said the government was about to engage in an
unprecedented market intervention that would be bullish for stocks. More
recently on September 1st I was asked specifically if I was shorting the market.
My response:
Ideally I would, however, I think it’s
dangerous to build shorts right now. If the market is about to collapse then
it’s about the most widely known collapse ever. Markets don’t tank when
everyone is this bearish unless there is some sort of extreme event (which
isn’t occurring currently). I think the April period when I was very negative
(and short) is a great example.
I have actually been looking for a spot
to get long even though my macro outlook is negative (which it has been for
several years).
Now, in fairness, I did not buy for my
macro equity strategy so don’t take this as some form of revisionist history
where I am patting myself on the back for a trade that never occurred. On
September 2nd I got what I later referred to as a “soft buy signal” as opposed
to a conviction buy signal (more on this below). In hindsight it’s easy to say
that I should have had more conviction in the signal and simply bought stocks,
but that’s not my modus operandi. As I have previously explained, I have rules
within my micro outlook that guide my various strategies and approaches. I
trade the indicators (in this case a proprietary algorithm) and not the market.
My rules tell me when to buy, sell and short. If my strict rules are not met I
do not act.I have often referred to myself as a lion in the grass. The lion is
not greedy. She does not just run wildly across the plains chasing antelope
(thinking of day traders here). Instead, she devises a plan and lies in wait as
the plan unfolds to her liking. If the environment is not right she does not
act. There is too much at stake for her to make mistakes and risk losing a meal
that might feed an entire pride for weeks or months. My mentality is no different.
I am not frantically trading therefore you get a small dose of my trading
perspective. Instead, I am measuring the risk environment day by day waiting
for the antelope to step just close enough so I can react in a way that gives
me very good odds of being right, fat and well fed for many months.
2) Quantifying the disequilibrium. As I previously mentioned, I use
several strategies. One of these is global macro, however, it has never been my
strong suit. It never has been, but it is an approach I have grown increasingly
confident about in recent years (a little luck in a tough market environment
apparently results in a bit of hubris). Within this strategy I have an equity
component. I use dozens of different indicators that measure the markets on a
daily basis. These indicators are best summed in an indicator I call quantified
disequilibrium. It is a short-term indicator that measures whether the market
is excessively risky or not. It combines fundamental analysis with behavioral
finance in an attempt to measure the disequilibrium in the market. Since its
inception in 2008 it has resulted in 74% total returns vs -22% for the S&P
500. Trade win rate is 84%. I have not calculated risk adjusted returns for the
index, but I am certain that they are impressive. Some of its more notable
calls include shorting the market crash of 2008, shorting
the flash crash of 2009 and buying in early March 2009. After issuing a soft
buy signal on September 2nd the index is now flashing the warning signal (but
not a short signal). This does not mean the market is necessarily about to
decline, but merely means that the risk/reward profile has deteriorated
substantially in recent weeks. (chart)
3) Revisiting Swedish models. Some people in this country have a big
problem with Swedish models. I certainly don’t. Throughout much of 2008 I
mentioned that there were two historical approaches to tackling a debt crisis –
the Japan model and the Swedish model. The results were dramatically different.
In essence, the Swedes took their medicine. They bit the bullet, forced the
banks to take losses and helped stem a panic from occurring. The Japan outcome,
as we all know, has not been quite so successful. They allowed zombie banks to
earn their way out of the crisis and largely avoided taking their medicine. On
the consumer front the U.S. has implemented similar strategies. In general cash
for clunkers, homebuyers tax credits, bank bailouts, etc have all been attempts
to paper over he debt problem. It clearly hasn’t worked. We have attempted to
create capitalism without losers. There is no such thing. In September of 2008 I
wrote a letter to the Federal Reserve. It said:
I am writing this letter with regards
to the current banking crisis. As you likely know there is precedent for the
issues we are currently facing. Not only did Japan enter a similar deflationary
period in 1991, but Scandinavia entered an even more similar period around the
same time. I have attached the contact info and a paper with a descriptive
response to the issue by Arne Berggren. I hope you will forward this message to
the appropriate sources as it contains brilliant insight into a situation that
is very similar to our current predicament. And please thank the board for
their hard work during these trying times. http://www.fdic.gov/bank/historical/managing/sym1-09.pdf
I wonder how different the world would
be today if we had allowed more banks to be nationalized (or failed) while
focusing our time and energy on the real crux of this crisis – Main Street.
Instead, we listened to men who were either misguided and/or had a vested
interest in saving the banks (Buffett, Paulson, Geithner, Bernanke, etc). It
would be humorous if it hadn’t hurt so many millions of people. My guess is the
long-term outlook for the U.S. economy would be far better than it is today if
we had not repeated the mistakes of the past.’
Thursday:
Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble [ As is obvious, things are getting quite
dicey on fraudulent wall street and there’s a typical plethora of insanity in
the air (of wall street).] ‘
"I’m
forever blowing bubbles,
Pretty bubbles in the air,
They fly so high, nearly reach the sky,
Then like my dreams they fade and die.
Fortune’s always hiding,
I’ve looked everywhere,
I’m forever blowing
bubbles,
Pretty bubbles in the air."
Gold,
Treasuries,
Junk Bonds,
Netflix (NFLX)
(we shorted them yesterday), Priceline (PCLN)
(we shorted them Monday), Credit
Default Swaps - take your pick of what is going
to be the next bubble to burst.
We shorted TLT
again yesterday ($105) as I sure wouldn’t lend the US money at those rates and
neither, it seems, will the "smart money" guys anymore. The cost
to hedge against losses on U.S. government debt rose to the most in six weeks
as investors bet the Federal Reserve will put more cash into the economy.
Credit-default swaps on U.S. Treasuries climbed 1.7 basis points, the biggest
increase in more than three weeks, to 49.4, according to data provider CMA. The
Fed said Tuesday that slowing inflation and sluggish growth may require further
action. The statement positioned the central bank to expand its near-record
$2.3 trillion balance sheet as soon as their November meeting - just in time
for a Santa Clause boost for the markets.
So why does this
not make us bullish? Well, as
I said to Members on Tuesday, it was an anticipated statement with no
immediate action and we’re at the top of a 10% run for September so, as
I said in yesterday’s post, we anticipate a pullback of 2%, back to our 4%
line (see post). Also in yesterday’s post, I mentioned our IWM
9/30 $67 puts ($1.10) and the DIA Oct $105 puts (.89) both of which were good
for a reload on yesterday’s silly spike, where I said to Members in the 9:56
Alert:
I like the same IWM and DIA puts as yesterday as we
test 10,800 on the Dow - I don’t think it’s going to last. Tomorrow we lose the
usual 450,000 jobs for the week and we have Existing Home Sales at 10, which
can now disappoint as Building Permits were a big upside surprise yesterday. We
also get Leading Economic Indicators at 10 but they are expected up just 0.1%
and I doubt they go negative. Friday we have Durable Goods, which should be
down 2% and New Home Sales at 10, also now set up to disappoint even the very
low 291,000 expected. So caution, caution, caution PLEASE!
I had already mentioned in the morning post that
"bear is the word" and this is where the free readers tend to get
confused because I was all bullish for the beginning of the month but, as I say
often enough and as our Members know very well - I am not bullish, I am
RANGEISH - which is a very different thing. 10,700 is the top of our range and
with the Russell failing to confirm our 5% line at 666 (they hit it but didn’t
hold it) kept us cautious and then we turn to the news flow to see if we’re
going to have the gas to get past our major resistance lines and, so far, no -
we do not.
Right in yesterday’s morning post I said: "The
weak dollar will mask a weak market this morning and that will support
commodities and the commodity pushers in early trading but watch that dollar,
which will likely get bought up by the BOJ at some point and that will send oil
and copper down and those strong sectors will pull back and likely lead us back
down to test our 4% levels at Dow 10,608, S&P 1,112, Nas 2,288, NYSE 7,072
and Russell 660." Just to be clear, I don’t MAKE the markets do these
things - I can only tell you what the market is going to do and how to make
money trading it but I’m not the guy with his hand on the switch, so don’t
blame me. We flip-flop when we have to because the market changes every day and
whether you are a bull or a bear, you are likely to be wrong soon.
Speaking of being wrong, that’s what we were about
gold at the beginning of the week when we looked at GLL for a short position at
$1,280. We are scaling in, of course but, as I said about gold in yesterday’s
chat:
"It’s a bubble. The same statements they are
making now were made about housing and oil and tulips. Just keep in mind that
that doesn’t stop gold from going to $3,000, just like oil went to $147, up 47%
in the last Quarter before it crashed and it ended up all the way at $35 yet
"that time is was different" and 1,000 experts told me I was wrong
for all of ‘07 and ‘08 and, for 75% of that time - THEY WERE RIGHT!"
Even as gold flies up to $1,299 and copper tags
$3.594 in overnight trading, commodities
under management dropped 2.3% last month from a record $300Bn to $293Bn.
This was the first pullback since January as investors withdrew $5Bn from
commodity index swaps - the first monthly decline in 5 years! “There was
concern about the U.S. and concern about China that spooked the market,”
according to Barclays Capital.
There’s even some in-fighting within the Gang of 12
as Morgan Stanley says investors should buy the lowest-rated corporate debt,
while Goldman Sachs says stay away. Bonds graded CCC in the U.S. are the “cheapest”
high- yield securities with “economic data once again beginning to surprise
to the upside,” Morgan Stanley told clients yesterday in a report. Goldman
Sachs says higher-rated speculative-grade debt is the way to go as the economy
decelerates.
And what should we do when mommy and daddy are
fighting like this? Cash out and go stay at a friend’s house is my advice. The
September move may not be over but it sure does look fake at this point and
making 10% in a month is plenty for most people’s year so I’m leaning towards
quitting while we’re ahead and getting prepared to flip aggressively bearish if
our 4% levels don’t hold.
Of course, this is just the follow-through of the
pattern we expected post-Fed (see charts in
Tuesday’s chat) so we’re just going to enjoy the
ride down and we reserve the right to get bullish again (and this does
not affect our long-term, hedged trades, just our directional short-term bets)
- pending earnings reports, of course.
As we expected, jobs are a bust with weekly
unemployment up 12K to 465,000, that’s dipping the US futures about 1% and we
still have Existing Home Sales and Leading Economic Indicators at 10, which
were already reasons we took bearish positions yesterday. The key is going to
be what kind of volume we get on the way down and what levels hold up to give
us a clue of whether we are still at the top of our 10,200, 1,070 range or
whether we indeed can call our former mid-range new floor. Oil broke yesterday,
as we expected (very nice for the OIH puts) and today’s natural gas report at
10:30 is not likely to cheer them up and $73.50 would be a shame to fail. We’ve
been tracking the barrel counts over at the NYMEX in member chat and there is
still quite a stockpile that needs to be worked off - another bearish factor
that’s kept us on our toes as we approached our upside goals.
Asia
was mixed this morning but mostly closed for holidays with the BSE posting yet
another decline. We looked at some BRIC shorts yesterday, including India but I
favored BGZ (ultra-short emerging
markets) to shorting IFN (India ETF), which gives fantastic bang for
the bearish buck.
The
shine is coming off India as they’ve butchered their chance to impress people
by hosting the 54-nation Commonwealth Games, with some countries threatening to
pull out just weeks before training begins. Work for the Games has been plagued
by construction delays, allegations of corruption and friction between
officials of the Games Federation and the local organizing committee. A
heavier-than-usual monsoon season made finishing the work harder. Some
completed venues sprouted bad leaks.
Ireland’s
GDP also sprang a bad leak in Q2 as an
unexpected 1.2% decline casts serious doubts on the country’s ability to
cut the deficit by 3%, feeding concerns over Dublin’s ability to repay it’s
debts without outside help. Although "economists" called it wrong,
the report is pretty much in-line with the IMF’s expectations, which were far
more bearish so not a huge event but worth watching as a sentiment changer,
nonetheless. Private
sector growth dropped 5% throughout the Euro-zone to 53.8, down from 56.2
in August. Above 50 is still growing but, like Ireland’s GDP, these little
set-backs can add up to a change in investor sentiment very quickly.
An
appreciation of 20 percent in China’s currency would cause widespread
bankruptcies in China’s export sector, where firms operate on thin margins, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said on Wednesday.
"The conditions for a major appreciation of the renminbi do not exist,"
Wen said in a speech to U.S. businessmen in New York. He said the appreciation
of China’s currency demanded by U.S. lawmakers would not bring jobs back to the
United States because U.S. firms no longer make such labor-intensive products.
The Premier is in New York to get his ass kissed by
Obama while we pretend to get tough on Chinese currency. As I mentioned last
week, China has stopped bying US Treasuries and, for the moment, Japan is
filling the gap - but how long will that last as Japan is pressured to apply
more stimulus at home?
We’ll be on our toes as we test each of our levels on
the way down. Hopefully those 4% lines will hold, which would be impressive
with all this negative noise. Durable Goods is ahead of the bell tomorrow
morning and it’s very unlikely that report is good and we also get record-low
New Home Sales at 10 so there’s nothing to be bullish about into tomorrow’s
open and next week we see our own GDP along with Case-Shiller, Consumer
Confidence, Personal Income & Spending, ISM and Auto Sales so busy, busy
into earnings.
Disclosure: None’
A
Warning for the Bulls Cam Hui ‘As NBER
has declared the recession over and with the SPX decisively rallied
through technical resistance at 1130, traders should be tilting towards the
bullish side, right?Not necessarily. Barry Ritholz posted on the 10 things that make him nervous about the
market. I generally agree with Barry's assesssments and I would like to add a
few more of my own. While I don't have ten items, here is what is bothering me
about stocks at the current levels.
Technicals pointing to economic deterioration
Analyzing relative charts, sectors/industries relative to the market, can tell
you a lot about what the consensus is thinking. Here is the relative chart of
the Morgan Stanley Cyclicals Index: (chart)The chart looks like an inverted
saucer to me - which is bearish. The cyclicals deteriorated through a relative
uptrend in May and are now in a relative downtrend. This is not the picture of
a robust economic recovery.What's more, when I look at housing, as proxied by
XHB against the market, it isn't signalling a rip roaring recovery either.
(chart)As well, the Banking Index looks terrible against the market. This
picture looks a lot like the relative chart of the cyclicals - a relative
downtrend within an inverted saucer top formation. Without leadership from the
Financials, can a new upleg be launched?(chart)For the followers of my Inflation-Deflation Timer mode, I refer to my latest comment indicating that I am getting
very mixed signals. The model has moved to a technical "inflation"
signal. I would tend to discount that signal and remain in "neutral"
because of the anomolous condition of strong commodity prices and falling bond
yields.
Watch out for the double-tip talk
John Hussman has been writing in the last several weeks
about impending deterioration in economic indicators [emphasis added]:
As I've emphasized in recent weeks, the
U.S. economy is still in a normal "lag window" between deterioration
in leading measures of economic activity and (probable) deterioration in
coincident measures. Though the lags are sometimes variable, as we saw in 1974
and 2008, normal lags would suggest an abrupt softening in the September
ISM report (due in the beginning of October), with new
claims for unemployment softening beginning somewhere around mid-October.
It's possible that the historically tight relationships that we've reviewed iin
recent weeks will not hold in this particular instance, but we have no
reasonable basis to expect that. Indeed, if we look at the drivers of economic
growth outside of the now fading impact of government stimulus spending, we
continue to observe little intrinsic activity.
Already, the employment picture is
ominous:
US
walks out on Ahmadinejad's UN speech (AP) - The U.S. delegation walked out of the U.N. speech of Iranian
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Thursday after he said some in the world have
speculated that Americans were behind the Sept. 11 terror attacks, staged in an
attempt to assure Israel's survival.
Drudgereport:
Spitzer: Cuomo 'Dirtiest,
Nastiest' Of Politicians … but he made mob’s man cuomo his Cujo / consiglieri
attorney general anyway … how pathetic is new york .....
Dead in Afghan chopper crash
were all American...
Jobless claims rise again...
Welch: Administration Is 'Anti-Business'...
Zuckerman: The American Dream
Has Become a Nightmare...
Buffett: 'We're still in a recession'...
Military toughest on Obama (Washington Post)
[ Almost hard to believe since wobama foolishly, in contravention of
campaign pledges and sound judgment, has given the ‘sullen mullen militants’,
also contrary to reason, everything they’ve asked for and more; kind of a
dumbya bush in disguise (but I believe Woodward). Credit must be given to the
three officers - retired Lt. Gen. Karl W. Eikenberry, retired Gen. James L.
Jones and Lt. Gen. Douglas Lute, the generals tapped for key positions that are
traditionally filled by civilians, for their astute but ignored analysis and
courage for standing up to the darkly dysfunctional sullen mullenights who got
their ill-found way. ) ] Bob Woodward's
new book presents three generals in civilian posts as his most skeptical critics.
Large
U.S. paramilitary presence in Afghanistan (Washington Post)
[ Yeah … defacto bankrupt america can really afford it … you know, to
protect (and participate in) their resurgent heroin trade to the benefit of the
few ‘insiders’. ] Existence of covert CIA teams, operating near the Pakistan
border, is revealed in a new book by Bob Woodward and documents released by
WikiLeaks.
GOP to call for spending
freeze (Washington Post) [ Presumably because in defacto bankrupt america you can’t spend
what you don’t have (or can you) which of course hasn’t stopped them in the
past and certainly didn’t stop war criminal dumbya bush, et als. I don’t
believe anything they say; and that’s a bipartisan statement. ]"Pledge to
America" illustrates how party would govern if it wins control of Congress
in Nov.
Mourning
in America (Washington Post) [ More
like, ‘mourning america’ while the rest of the world, in light of america’s
fabricated, illegal wars and war crimes is saying, ‘good mourning america’.]
Sucker's
Rally? Reitmeister ‘Why am I trimming profits when the market seems to be
rallying?
Market Rallies on 'Recession End': Is This a Joke? Satwaves ‘We learned Monday that the
recession that has gripped this country for the last two and a half years
actually ended in June of 2009. The markets rallied on the news, yet left a lot
of my readers asking what it meant. One of our members whom happens to own over
thirty wireless phone stores for example, explained that before the recession,
a great month meant 150 to 200 activations per store. A good month resulted in
100 to 150 activations per store, while a not-so-good month came in between 80
to 100 activations per store. Since the recession took hold, this subscriber considers
himself lucky to acheive 50 to 65 activations per store, per month. Not wanting
to let go of employees with families, this member continues to pay his
employees out of his own pocket in the hope that things will get better. Is the
recession really over for him? The answer will surprise you. The short answer
is yes. Economists define a recession as two quarters of negative GDP growth.
In layman's terms, it means only that things stopped getting worse as of June
2009. It does not signify that anything has improved. Think of a receding
hairline if you will. Just because it has stopped receding does not mean new
hair has grown back. For my friend, and millions of small business owners like
him nationwide, things stopped getting worse back in June of 2009. A bottom had
been established. Unfortunately, this is where most Americans find themselves
living these days. The question going forward is how to fix it. Economists are
looking for moderate growth of about 2.6% as we climb out of the recession.
Let's apply this factor to the gentleman in the example above. Instead of 50 to
65 activations per month, my friend can look forward to that number increasing
to 52 to 67 activations per month over the coming year. This is not something
my friend is happy about, and needless to say he gets quite upset when he hears
people touting the end of the recession. This will not create jobs. This will
not end foreclosures. This will not put an end to the record number of poverty
stricken Americans this country now has to contend with. There is a solution
however, but unfortunately it would require the politicians on Capital Hill to
put aside their differences and actually work for the benefit of the people
they represent. It would require a sitting Democratic President to accept an
idea from his former Republican rival. Americans want jobs, not unemployment
checks and certainly not government programs designed to acclimate people to a
life of poverty. The government can and should create those jobs, by building
nuclear power plants across the country. Just as job creation in infrastructure
lead us out of the great depression, so too can it lead the country now. By now
everyone knows about the troubled electrical grid our country faces. Oil and
coal generate most of the power we use today. Still, on a hot summer day air
conditioning usage results in blackouts in cities and towns across the nation.
A new movement is now underway which will test our capacities like never
before, in the way of the electric automobile. Where will the power needed come
from? I know of one non-public company for instance that has ordered 6000 such
cars. Although the idea was first presented by a Republican, a Democrat has the
ability to say today that it is a good idea whose time has come. Let both take credit
and let America and its people prosper. Nuclear power plants will create jobs
in every field from architecture and engineering to food service. It will put
to work thousands of carpenters, electricians, plumbers, drywall installers,
roofers, landscapers, excavators and the like who will purchase everything from
groceries to shoes and yes....even that brand new Droid along with a two year
activation. Disclosure: No positions
Investor
'Sugar High' Becomes 'Sugar Crash'
Reitmeister … I am highly amused
by the different reactions that took place after the FOMC Meeting Announcement.
In particular day traders acted like hyperactive children at a birthday party.
Instead of screaming for more cake, candy and cola they pounded the table for
more stimulus. So when they saw the Fed leaning more in that direction they
pushed up the Dow by 100 points in just minutes. Investors came in a bit later
to find the traders crashing from the “sugar high”. You could say that the
investors were like the parents who needed to clean up after the children’s
mess. What investors heard from the announcement was “if the Fed is ready to
use more stimulus, then economy must be a LOT worse off than we suspected”.
From there the traders rally was deflated and the market ended the day in the
red. It will be interesting to see which sentiment prevails going forward …’
The
Great Recession is Over. Long Live the Great Deleveraging Marta ‘… The NBER
declared that the recession that began in December 2007 ended in June 2009. The
18-month recession represents the longest since the end of WWII. The problem
with declaring the recession over is that it suggests an end to the Great Recession.
The term Great Recession relies on a misguided concept of the latest period of
negative growth as a normal downturn in the business cycle, even if on a global
scale. Furthermore, in circumscribing the situation within an 18-month period,
the term fails to appreciate the breadth, depth and enormity of the recent -
and ongoing - crisis. Think back on the Great Depression. At least that phrase
contains the word, “depression,” which carries with it the stigma of a really,
really bad, multi-year, economic downturn. However, even that term proves
inadequate … What is happening right
now, and what has been happening in fits and starts since 2000, is the Great
Deleveraging, which in many ways parallels the origins and path of the Great
Depression. From 1991 to 2000, just as from 1918 to 1929, the world enjoyed the
benefits of The End of History (end of the Cold War), known in the former
period as The War to End All Wars. The benefits showed up in the period of
“Irrational Exuberance”, known in the earlier period as the “Roaring ‘20’s.”
The “Crash of ‘29” was mirrored by implosion of the Internet Bubble in 2000.
However, a Depression did not ensue in the ‘00’s because the Fed and the
Federal government responded in exactly the opposite way that they did in 1929 and
the early-‘30’s. In 2001-2003, the Fed cut interest rates and the Federal
government cut taxes. An economic recovery ensued. However, just as growth
during the ‘30’s proved ephemeral and sporadic, the recovery of the early- to
mid-‘00’s proved unsustainable. In fact, the above-mentioned policies during
the early-‘00’s, in concert with other government initiatives like “a home for
every American”, increased leverage for large banks, and a failure to regulate
hedge funds, actually caused something of another “roaring ‘20’s” that ended in
tears in 2007 with the collapse of home lending and then hedge funds. The
financial system continued to teeter through 2007, before the start of the
Great Recession, and nearly collapsed in 2008. To those who believe that the
financial collapse is complete and that the end of the Great Recession marks
the end of an economic cycle, if not all our economic woes, you are likely to
be surprised when you look back in 10 to 15 years and discover that the term
Great Recession spans a much longer period than originally thought; just as the
term "Great Depression" has been expanded to an indeterminate end
date. There are several reasons that the Great Deleveraging will continue.
First, the toxins have not been fully purged from the international banking
system, and so financial intermediation will remain significantly impaired.
Second, private citizens have yet to fully delever. For example, in the US,
many individuals and families are slowly bleeding out financially, trying to
offset underemployment in jobs paying considerably less than those lost in the
past two years by slowly draining savings to pay for houses that cannot be
sold. Third, the governments of several nations, as well as the ECB, the Fed
and the IMF, have onboarded or underwritten many of the toxins from the private
financial system. These bailouts, combined with the excesses of government
forays into excessive social welfare programs, will lead to crises in the
future. For example, in the US, government leaders still fail to act on the
insolvencies of social security, Medicare and Medicaid. Instead, they
outrageously create even more healthcare entitlements and promise that there
will be no extra cost. Fourth, some governments, like the U.S. and Japan, have
engaged in fruitless Keynesian stimulus projects that have worsened the
countries’ fiscal situations without providing the hoped-for growth. In fact,
the situation is becoming dire enough that we are beginning to see competitive
quantitative easing, which presents Japan with the specter of yet another
recession, deflation and a third lost decade. As they try to save their own
economy, they will put more pressure on the economies of their trading partners
and competitors. At some point, all the balance sheets, those of individuals,
banks, governments, central banks and extra-national entities like the IMF,
will need to be purged in order to right the global economy. This is the Great
Deleveraging, and it’s got years to run before it finally burns out.’
National / World
IS THE RECESSION
REALLY OVER? , ON TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 21, 2010, 12:29 PM EDT ( link
to all charts used in this article )
The National
Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - a panel of economists entrusted with the
responsibility to officially declare the beginning and end of recessions -
declared the end of this recession. But wait, amidst the sound of popping
champagne corks, the snore of complacency and a cheer leading media, you can
hear the economy's distress signals.
THE GOOD
NEWS
But who likes
to hear about gloom and doom. Let's focus on the good news. As per NBER, the
longest recession the country has endured since World War II officially ended
in June 2009 (see chart below). During this recession, the economy has lost
over 7 million jobs while the major market indexes a la Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI),
S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC), and Russell 2000 (Chicago
Options: ^RUT) lost well over 50% of their value. By declaring that the
recession ended 14 months ago, NBER takes advantage of the much-coveted
privilege of evaluating the economy in hindsight, as it did in December 2008
when it declared that the recession had started 12 month earlier. (chart)
Investors
don't have the luxury of placing trades based on hindsight and need to rely on
forward looking data, not the rear view mirror. Based purely on forward looking
indicators, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter predicted the biggest counter
trend rally since the October all-time highs on March 2, 2009 and recommended
buying long and leveraged long ETFs, such as the Financial Select Sector SPDRS
(NYSEArca: XLF - News), Technology Select Sector
SPDRs (NYSEArca: XLK - News), Ultra S&P ProShares
(NYSEArca: SSO - News), Ultra Financial ProShares
(NYSEArca: UYG - News) and many others. Are
forward looking indicators now in line with NBER?
THE BAD
NEWS
What does the
NBER base its decisions on? To make its determination, the NBER looks at figures
that make up the nation's gross domestic product, incomes, employment, and
industrial activity.
GROSS
DOMESTIC PRODUCT
Obviously,
recent downward revisions to the GDP did not prevent NBER from its assessment
that the recession had ended. The chart below shows recent revisions to GDP. (chart)
Telling the 15
million unemployed Americans that the recession has ended is like telling a
homeless person that real estate prices (NYSEArca: IYR - News) are about to pick up. It's
ironic at best and cruel at worst.
UNEMPLOYMENT
The chart
below shows the real percentage of unemployed Americans expressed by the U-6
unemployment data, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. With
unemployment near an all-time high, can the recession really be over? (chart)
CONSUMER
SENTIMENT
It is said
that consumer spending makes up about two thirds to three quarters of the
economy. What causes consumer spending? Money flow and confidence in future
growth are often the catalysts. Judging by the unemployment numbers, money flow
is limited. This no doubt has had an effect on consumer confidence. The chart
below shows the Consumer Confidence Index. If the recession is over, why is
confidence near an all-time low? (chart)
Friday's
release of the University of Michigan's Confidence Index was another blow
against the economy. Based on this report, Americans planning to buy a home
have fallen to a five-month low. Also, Americans planning to buy a car
have dropped to the lowest level since December 2008, and 20% of Americans
incomes are at risk of deflating. Not only is the lack of spending power a
practical threat to any economy, it is also a statistical threat to future GDP
numbers. A piece of statistical news that fits into the picture of falling
consumer confidence is that the nation's poverty rate jumped to 14.3%
(datasource: U.S. Census Bureau). Poverty in the U.S. is defined by a family of
four living on less than $21,954 a year. Currently, 43.6 million Americans fall
into this category. But perhaps this doesn't make a difference, as the
government is counting on the faithful flock of economists that don't see their
own demise and the few thousand Wall Streeters' that cashed in on multi-billion
dollar bonuses to lift the economy.
THE SILVER LINING
Even though the NBER declared this recession over, it doesn't preclude the
occurrence of another recession. According to NBER, if the economy starts
shrinking again, it could mark the onset of a much feared but unexpected
double-dip recession. As the first chart shows, this happened in the early
1980s.
NO DOUBLE DIP
To Wall Street's cheerleaders, the worst-case scenario is that the economy is
stuck between a rock and a hard place as illustrated by this Bloomberg
headline: 'Escaping double dip still means no relief for jobless.' As for
investors, they seem not to care much. Monday saw U.S. stocks (NYSEArca: VTI - News) rally by 1.5%.
International stocks (NYSEArca: EFA
- News) and emerging markets
(NYSEArca: EEM - News) were up 1.5 -1.7%. Even
European stocks (NYSEArca: FEZ
- News) were up, although the
European Central Bank had to intervene to stabilize the Irish bond markets on
Friday. In other words, the ECB had to prevent another Greece-style default. In
fact, does not the emergence of yet another European country defaulting, remind
us of the February - April 2010 rally. This rally occurred on ultra-low volume
and against a backdrop of bad news. It then stopped all of a sudden for
seemingly no specific reason. On April 16, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
warned: 'the pieces are in place for a major decline. We are simply waiting for
the proverbial domino to fall over and set off a chain reaction.' The situation
is similar right now. Even though stocks have broken out of the 1,040 - 1,130
trading range, they have done so on low volume and increased investor optimism.
Within the past three weeks, the percentage of bullish investors tracked by
AAII has soared by 30.15%, to the highest level in over a year. This doesn't
mean that stocks can't inch up a bit further, just as they did earlier in
April, but a look at all pieces of the puzzle doesn't paint the picture of a
new bull market. The October issue of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter evaluates the bullish and bearish
potential of the market with a unique approach, along with corresponding target
levels and profit strategies.
Bulls Go to Extremes: Don't Buy the "Breakout",
Sell It, Prechter Says
Stocks jumped Monday with the Dow rising 1.4% to 10,753 and the S&P
gaining 1.5% to 1143, its highest close in four months. The S&P eclipsing
1130 for the first time since late June would seem to confirm the long-awaited
technical breakout for the index, and could pull many reluctant investors off
the sidelines. "Many automatic buy and sell orders are set around market
milestones such as these, and investors watch those levels closely for clues
about which way the market may go next," the AP reports. But the wise move now is to sell this recent rally, says Robert
Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International. "I think we're getting
ready for another leg on the downside," Prechter says, citing evidence of
what he says are extreme levels of optimism, including:
In addition, Prechter notes volume has been punk during the rally in recent weeks a sign, to him, that buyers lack conviction. The veteran market-watcher says the current environment is similar to the 1930-31 period. "The market can make its high while optimism makes a peak despite the fact you're going stair-step lower," he says. "What we had in May with the ‘flash crash' was the first wave down." Prechter predicts these periods of downturns sandwiched around 4-5 months of recovery "where people think we've hit the bottom" is likely to "go one for quite a long time" until a true bottom is reached well below the March 2009 lows, much less today's levels.
Macro
Insights From Seth Klarman Seth Klarman, the legendary hedge fund manager
at Baupost is increasingly concerned about the macro investing environment.
With the retirements of several prominent hedge fund managers in recent months
he’s clearly not alone in his thinking. In a recent interview (see here
for the entire interview) Klarman provides some excellent macro insights
and explains why he is more worried about the world than he has been in his
entire career. Klarman echoes
comments I have often made here. In effect, the recovery has been almost
entirely artificial and will result in unquantifiable future threats. Klarman
calls the current market a “Hostess Twinkie”:
A Hostess Twinkie is a confection that has made many
childhoods slightly happier, but it is composed of totally artificial
ingredients. My context, of about 6–12 months ago, was that virtually
everything was being manipulated by the government. Nothing was natural in the
markets. Interest rates were held at zero, the government was buying all kinds
of securities—notably, mortgage securities—and who knows what else has ended up
on the Fed’s balance sheet.
We have had lending programs—Troubled Asset Relief
Program (TARP), Cash for Clunkers, and even Cash for Caulkers. We just don’t
know the full extent to which investors have been manipulated. But certainly,
the government wants people to buy equities, to invest so that the market will
move higher, creating a wealth effect or at least eliminating the negative
wealth effect in order to make people feel better about their situation, to
restore a degree of optimism so that the economy might recover.
I am worried to this day about what would happen to
the markets, to the economy if, in the midst of all these manipulations, we
realized that they are, in fact, a Twinkie. I think the answer is that no one
knows, including those in Washington. Will the economy continue to recover and
grow at a healthy rate or will we sink into a double-dip recession? As we can
all see, the high degree of government involvement continues.
Of course, the USA isn’t the only country kicking the
can. Klarman cites the European bailout as another game of government kick the
can:
The European bailout is gargantuan. I doubt it will
work because it kicks the can further down the road and is yet one more
manipulation that encourages people to own securities. It is almost as if our
government is in the business of giving people bad advice: “We are going to
hold rates at zero. Please buy stocks or junk bonds that will yield [an
inadequate] 5 or 6 percent.” In effect, it forces unsophisticated investors to
speculate wildly on securities that are too overvalued.
All of this has Klarman more concerned than he has
ever been. That’s a mouthful from a legend like Klarman who has seen more than
his fair share of cycles:
I am more worried about the world, more broadly, than
I have ever been in my career.
Like myself, Klarman
believes there are unquantifiable repercussions from the bailouts:
I am also troubled that we didn’t get the value out
of this crisis that we should have. The Great Depression led us to a
generation—or even two generations—of changed behavior. I grew up hearing about
how our grandparents had a “depression mentality.” It’s awful to have a
depression, but it’s a great thing to have a depression mentality because it
means that we are not speculating, we are not living beyond our means, we don’t
quit our job to take a big risk because we know we might not get another job.
There is something stable about a country, a society built on those values.
In some sense, from the recent crisis we have
developed a “really bad couple of weeks” mentality, and that’s not enough to
tide us through, teach us to avoid future bubbles, and ensure a strong
recovery.
Klarman isn’t a macro expert (he’s a bottom up
investor), but something just doesn’t pass the sniff test with all these
bailouts. How can the global economy continually bailout the losers without
ever allowing these excesses to truly pass from the system? Klarman says we
will eventually reach a tipping point:
A tipping point is invisible, as we just saw in
Greece. In most situations, everything appears fine until it’s not fine, until,
for example, no one shows up at a Treasury auction. In the meantime, we can be
lulled into thinking all is well, that the United States will always be rated
triple-A. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner speaks as if—at least in his
public statements—he has been lulled into thinking that the United States will
always be triple-A. That kind of thinking guarantees that someday the United
States will no longer be triple-A. A sovereign deserves to be rated triple-A
only if it has valuable assets, a good education system, a great
infrastructure, and the rule of law, all of which are called into question by
an eroding infrastructure, a government that changes the law or violates it
whenever there is a crisis, and a legislature that shows no fiscal
responsibility. There is an old saying, “How did you go bankrupt?” And the
answer is, “Gradually, and then suddenly.” The impending fiscal crisis in the
United States will make its appearance in the same way.
Klarman finds the current environment particularly
difficult because many of the hedges that have been working are more
speculative in nature. He finds little value in most commodities (with the
exception of land) because commodities offer no real cash flow and instead rely
almost entirely on some future “greater fool” buying the asset from you.
Klarman makes an exception with gold, however:
Gold is unique because it has the age-old aspect of
being viewed as a store of value. Nevertheless, it’s still a commodity and has
no tangible value, and so I would say that gold is a speculation. But because
of my fear about the potential debasing of paper money and about paper money
not being a store of value, I want some exposure to gold.
Klarman sees all of this government intervention
resulting in higher rates of inflation:
I think the odds are low that such high inflation
will happen in the near future, but looking ahead five years, it becomes more
likely, although certainly not a 50/50 chance. With a very limited initial
outlay, I think a hedge like ours is a reasonable protection.
Ultimately, the downside of the current bailout fever
comes in the form of an intangible risk. Capitalism without losers is like
Catholocism without hell. Klarman sees no way of avoiding future collapses
given that we’ve never actually been forced to learn from our past collapses:
Essentially, the problem is that government
intervention interfered with the lessons investors needed to learn. Those who
stared into the metaphorical abyss are right back at it, with the possible
exception of college endowments, for whom the pain has been long lasting
because of their spend rate. Almost everybody else is drinking the Kool Aid
again, and it is very troubling. We could have another serious collapse, and
people would again not be prepared for it.
Secular Bear Market Myths, Part 2 Claassen In yesterday's Secular Bear
Market Myths Part 1 we debunked the myth that a secular bear
market requires poor earnings growth. In part two, we illustrate the typical
price pattern of a thirteen to sixteen year secular bear market and use that
pattern to provide a near term and long term Market Outlook. The market may be
nearing a critical juncture. If you want to know what to expect, read on ….
A Secular Pattern
Inflation Adjusted (Real) S&P 500 Index 1953-1991 (chart)
After adjusting for inflation, both the high inflation driven
secular bear markets and the deflation driven secular bear markets take on a
more similar form. This is especially true when a secular bear market is
defined as the period between the peak and trough of the average P/E ratio.
Using the numbers on the above chart we see that from the 1966 peak in the P/E
ratio [1] (see chart of Shiller’s CAPE in first report) to the 1982 low [4] was
sixteen years. Both the nominal and real price peak was in late 1968, thirteen years
from the 1982 low. This is indicative of the typical secular bear market; a
period of sixteen to thirteen years.
There are seven years between the two peaks [1] and [2] along with
two major declines [3]. After the second major decline, there is a relief rally
[R], then a multi-month trading range as a period of distribution, followed by
a multi-year decline to complete the bear market [4].
S&P Composite 1917-1951 with Present S&P 500 (chart)
We can see a similar pattern of behavior in the deflationary bear
market of the 1930’s. Yes, the market overlay in orange is our present S&P
500. We will get to that next.
Like the inflation adjusted 1970’s (and 1900-1921) the major highs
and lows follow a pattern. The entire period from 1929 to 1942 encompasses thirteen
years. The two major tops [1] and [2] are seven years apart. There are two
major declines [3], a relief rally [R] followed by a prolonged sideways period,
and finally a decline to complete the bear market [4].
The 2000 - 2016? Bear Market
Overlaid in orange on the above chart is the current S&P 500
with the P/E ratio peak in 2000 lined up with the P/E ratio peak in 1929. Not
surprisingly, the peak [2] and troughs [3] all line up within a couple of
months of their 1930’s counterparts. It appears the rally from the March ’09
low was the relief rally [R]. If our current S&P 500 follows the same path
as these previous bear markets, we should expect a prolonged sideways period
and decline to final low of the bear market sometime in-between 2013 and 2016.
As illustrated in the historical chart of the S&P Composite, when this
secular bear market is complete the trailing Shiller CAPE ratios should be
under ten. The higher the earnings from now until that time, the less the
market will need to decline to complete this period and move into the next
secular bull market. Conversely, the lower the earnings, the more the market
averages would need to decline to meet their sub 10 trough in the index P/E
ratio.
Inflation Adjusted (Real) S&P 500 1959-1983 with Current Inflation
Adjusted S&P 500 (chart)
As nicely as the current bear market has fit within the profile of
the past, the chart above and the chart below should serve as signs of caution
not to expect too tight a correlation between past markets and the
present. The patterns of past market behavior are a good guide; they help us
understand the environment we are in and keep our expectations in check. But
the turning points that look so perfect on the monthly charts have still been
accurate only within a +/- of several months. In hind sight that does not seem
like much, in real time two or three months can feel like an eternity.
Also, each secular period is unique, and the market will respond to
that uniqueness in a manner different than what our past market roadmaps might
lead us to expect. For example, when we line up the current market with the
1966 P/E ratio peak (above), although the major turning points line up, there
is a unique rally peak in 1968 (see above chart). That difference can be
explained by the difference between inflation and deflation based bear markets.
But, for now, the current environment is not completely identical to either the
pure inflation or deflation periods.
Obviously, current inflation is not the least bit similar to the
1970’s and despite deflationary pressures; this is not the Great Depression. We
do believe that this cycle will have more in common with deflationary cycles
than inflation. If we look back again at the P/E chart on (reposted below) we
can see that secular bear markets have cycled between a falling interest rate
and falling P/E environment, and a rising interest rate falling P/E
environment. The current economic background is more similar to the
deflationary period. In previous Market Updates we have illustrated how, since
1998, the intermarket correlations have been indicative of a market that fears
deflation more than inflation, which fits very well with this cycle.
P/E Ratio (CAPE) for US Equities and Long Term Interest Rates: source RJ Shiller (chart)
NASDAQ Composite Aligned with Nikkei 225 1984-2010 (chart)
Japan is another example of a deflationary bear market. We have
shown the above chart before, with the overlay of the NASDAQ Composite matching
the year 2000 peak of the NASDAQ and the 1990 (December 1989) peak of the
Nikkei 225. The major turning points fit very well with the pattern, but the
volatility between the turning points is very different. For example, where our
S&P Composite model suggest a modest decline followed by a sideways period
(after [R]), the Nikkei 225 collapsed without pause. It is very unlikely that
the NASDAQ Composite will decline at same rate with which the Nikkei 225
declined at this stage of their bear market. It is more likely that the
sharpness of the Nikkei’s decline from 2000 [R] to 2003 [4] will be a feature
unique to their bear market. We should also note that it is apparent from our
model that Japan’s bear market should have been complete in 2003 [4]. The
Nikkei’s rally from the 2003 low to 2007 high was an astounding 140%! But, the
decline that followed, and the current persistent deflation shows they have not
yet pulled themselves out of their economic bear market. Is this because of
incorrect monetary or fiscal policy decisions? Have we made similar policy
mistakes? We don’t know and won’t know until after the fact.
Thus, while we have a good road map to follow, we must still
diligently monitor our indicators and market conditions. It is more important
to follow what the market is doing, than what it should do relative to any
predictive model.
Short Term Outlook
The above pages were originally written in June, 2010. The addendum
below is a short term outlook as of September 19, 2010. (chart)
Current Dow Jones Industrial Average Daily with NASDAQ 100 Year 2000
Overlay
…’
Homebuilder
Confidence Remains in the Dump
National / World
Drudgereport:
Professorial president
assigned 'homework' to advisers...
Critical players
in national security team 'doubt strategy in Afghanistan will succeed'...
Axelrod
'complete spin doctor'...
President of
Afghanistan suffers from 'manic-depression' … [Wow! No wonder he’s aligned with
the u.s. … fits right in, one nutcase to another ] ...
Rahm cheers
drone attacks: 'Who did we get today?'...
WOODWARD DOES OBAMA: KISS OR
DISS? [ What strategy … toward what end … why, other than the newly
cultivated heroin trade, which of course is great for cash money sub-rosa,
which is great for the few, and of course, the war’s great for the military
complex but bad for the u.s. economy generally (resources literally blown up).
Win what? You see; for the defacto bankrupt american nation, this is one of
those lose, lose scenarios regardless of so-called outcome. ] WASHINGTON — Some of the critical players in President Obama’s national
security team doubt his strategy in Afghanistan will
succeed and have spent much of the last 20 months quarreling with one another
over policy, personalities and turf, according to a new book. The book, “Obama’s Wars,” by the journalist Bob Woodward, depicts an
administration deeply torn over the war in Afghanistan even as the president
agreed to triple troop levels there amid suspicion that he was being boxed in
by the military. Mr. Obama’s top White House adviser on Afghanistan and his
special envoy for the region are described as believing the strategy will not
work …’
Mob’s man cuomo undecided on
debating … how embarrassing for new york … and their cuomo coma … ask cuomo how
many mob prosecutions he’s brought ...
POLL: USA Loses No. 1 to Brazil-China-India
Market...
HOUSEHOLD NET WORTH DROPS...
Sen.
DeMint champions 'tea party' candidates
(Washington Post) Bill
Maher digs up O'Donnell 'witchcraft' clip (AP) [ She’s done! There’s no excuse for that! None! ] ‘… "I dabbled into witchcraft. I never
joined a coven," she said. " ... I hung around people who were doing
these things. I'm not making this stuff up. I know what they told me they
do," she said. "... One of my first dates with a witch was on a
satanic altar, and I didn't know it. I mean, there's little blood there and
stuff like that," she said. "We went to a movie and then had a little
midnight picnic on a satanic altar." …’ Occult
Obsessed Elite Claim Christine O’Donnell is a Witch Kurt Nimmo | The corporate media, the propaganda organ of the global elite, sets
its sites on Delaware’s Christine O’Donnell. … Sorry kurt … there’s no excuse
for that … she’s done! An
O'Donnell repeat is unlikely
(Washington Post) There are at least three reasons to be skeptical of
Del. Senate candidate's ability to win. OPINION:
O'Donnell's forgivable sin? | Politerati Rough
Sketch: 10 reasons O'Donnell may be a witch
Justice:
FBI improperly opened probes (Washington
Post) [ Well, I just hope they’re as
zealous (in probing readily discernible crime) with regard to my RICO matters
and the corruption in the (judicial / legal) process since, in the final
analysis, it will have been the corruption within that will have brought the
nation down irrevocably and totally ] .
September
13, 2010
Steven M. Martinez, Assistant Director In Charge
Federal Bureau of Investigation, USDOJ
11000 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 1700
Dear Sir:
I enclose herewith 3 copies of the within DVD rom autorun disk (which
will open in your computer’s browser) as per your office’s request as made this
day (the disk and contents have been scanned by Avast, McAfee, and Norton which
I’ve installed on my computer to prevent viral attacks / infection and are
without threat). I also include a copy of the DVD as filed with the subject
court as referenced therein (which files are also included on the aforesaid 3
disks in a separate folder named ‘112208opocoan’). The (civil) RICO action (as
you’re aware, the RICO Act is a criminal statute which provides a civil remedy,
including treble damages and attorney fees, as an incentive for private
prosecution of said claims probably owing to the fact that the USDOJ seems somewhat
overwhelmed and in need of such assistance given the seriousness and prevalence
of said violations of law which have a corrupting influence on the process, and
which corruption is pervasive). A grievance complaint against Coan was also
filed concurrently with the subject action and held in abeyance pending
resolution of the action which was illegally dismissed without any supporting
law and in contravention of the Order of The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny,
Chief Judge, USDC, District Connecticut. The files below the horizontal rule
are the referenced documents as filed. (Owing to the damage to the financial
interests of both the U.S. and the District of Congresswoman Roybal-Allard,
viz., Los Angeles, the Qui Tam provisions of the Federal False Claims Act probably would
apply and I would absent resolution seek to refer the within to a firm with
expertise in that area of the law with which I am not familiar).
The document in 5 pages under
penalty of perjury I was asked to forward to the FBI office in New Haven is
probably the best and most concise summary of the case RICO
Summary to FBI Under Penalty of Perjury at Their Request (5 pages) [
ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf ].
The correspondence I received from Congresswoman by way of email
attachment (apparent but typical problem with my mail) along with my response
thereto is included on the 3 disks as
fbicorrespondencereyes.htm . With regard to the
calls to the FBI’s LA and New Haven, CT offices: There was one call to the LA
office and I was referred to the Long Beach, CA office where I personally met
with FBI Agent Jeff Hayes to whom I gave probative evidentiary documents of the
money laundering which he confirmed as indicative of same (he was transferred
from said office within approximately a month of said meeting and his location
was not disclosed to me upon inquiry). The matter was assigned to FBI Agent Ron
Barndollar and we remained in touch for in excess of a decade until he abruptly
retired (our last conversation prior to his retirement related to the case and
parenthetically, Rudy Giuliani whose father I stated had been an enforcer for
the mob to which he registered disbelief and requested I prove it, which I did
– he served 12 years in prison, aggravated assault/manslaughter? – and no,
there is no Chinese wall of separation – Andrew Maloney’s the one that
prosecuted gotti).
In contradistinction to the statement in said correspondence, there is
a plethora of information including evidence supporting the claims set forth in
the RICO
VERIFIED COMPLAINT (see infra). Such includes and as set forth
in the case, inter alia,
There is applicable insurance / surety
coverage and neither LA, nor creditors, nor I should continue to have been
damaged by this brazened corrupt and illegal scenario, which should be resolved
in accordance with the meaningful rules of law apposite thereto.
Sincerely,
Albert L. Peia
611 E. 5th Street, #404
Los Angeles, CA 90013
(213) ******** (cell phone)
(213) 622-3745 (listed land line but there are unresolved problems with the
line, computer connection may be the reason but I hesitate to chance greater
non-performance / worsening by their ‘fix’ so cell phone best for contact).
Recession ends, anxiety lingers (Washington
Post) Come on! This is typical,
pre-election, fraudulent wall street, full moon b*** s*** ; you know, like the
no recession … just more defacto bankruptcy of the nation to tide / smooth
things over! Obama confronts
deepening angst from Americans who have little faith that the recovery is for
real.
Yes! It is a full moon with
predictable lunacy from the lunatic frauds on wall street!
YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]:
‘The S&P 500 pushed through technical resistance to set a fresh four-month
high on Monday. There
were no catalysts or headlines to account for the climb. Only a bullish bias among market
participants underpinned the move.
Stocks made only modest gains in the early going. Most traders took
their cues from Europe, where the major bourses staged strong gains as concerns
about sovereign debt subsided. Early action was generally consistent with the
relatively cautious trade that typically precedes an FOMC announcement, the latest
of which will be released tomorrow afternoon. Though no rate actions are
expected tomorrow, many will look for changes in the verbiage of the actual the
FOMC statement to give clues about where policy might be headed …’ Riiiiight … changes in VERBIAGE … in other words, b*** s*** alone
… Come on! … you just can’t make this
stuff up … again! (the no-recession fed, then nation-bankrupting spending, then
just before election ‘recession over’ … the recession that’s a depression that
never ended and there’s desperation in the air … and the the frauds on wall
street are taking advantage of the pre-election b*** s***) … the new ‘churn and
earn fraud they’ll get their commissions again on the way down’ … THIS IS A
GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL / TAKE PROFITS SINCE THERE’S MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO
COME!
Gerald
Celente: US Economy = Depression Famous investor and billionaire George Soros referred to the US
economy as “blah,” saying he expects a further slowdown. US President Barack
Obama has insisted however that the US economy is heading in the right
direction. Gerald Celente, the director of the Trends Research Institute said
the economy is not just blah, it’s in a depression. It’s the summer of the
greatest recession,” he said.
Too
Much Liquidity Creating New Investment Bubbles … Again?
#1 The Census Bureau says that 43.6 million Americans
are now living in poverty and according to them that is the highest number of
poor Americans in
51 years of record-keeping.
#2 In the year 2000, 11.3
percent of Americans were living in poverty. In 2008, 13.2 percent of
Americans were living in poverty. In 2009, 14.3 percent of Americans were
living in poverty. Needless to say the trend is moving in the wrong
direction.
#3 In 2009 alone, approximately
4 million more Americans joined the ranks of the poor.
#4 According to the Associated Press, experts believe
that 2009 saw the
largest single year increase in the U.S. poverty rate since the U.S.
government began calculating poverty figures back in 1959.
#5 The U.S. poverty rate is now the third worst among
the developed nations tracked by the Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development.
#6 Today the United States has approximately 4
million fewer wage earners than it did in 2007.
#7 Nearly 10 million Americans now receive
unemployment insurance, which is
almost four times as many as were receiving it in 2007.
#8 U.S. banks repossessed 25
percent more homes in August 2010 than they did in August 2009.
#9 One out of every seven mortgages in the United
States was either delinquent or in foreclosure during the first quarter of
2010.
#10 There are now 50.7
million Americans who do not have health insurance. One trip to the
emergency room would be all it would take to bankrupt a significant
percentage of them.
#11 More
than 50 million Americans are now on Medicaid, the U.S. government
health care program designed principally to help the poor.
#12 There are now over
41 million Americans on food stamps.
#13 The number of Americans enrolled in
the food stamp program increased a
whopping 55 percent from December 2007 to June 2010.
#14 One out of every six Americans is now being served by
at least one government anti-poverty program.
#15 California’s poverty rate soared
to 15.3 percent in 2009, which was the highest in 11 years.
#16 According to an analysis by Isabel Sawhill and Emily
Monea of the Brookings Institution, 10 million more Americans (including 6
million more children) will slip into poverty over
the next decade.
#17 According to a recently released Federal Reserve report,
Americans experienced a $1.5
trillion loss in combined household net worth in the second quarter of
2010.
#18 Manufacturing employment in the U.S. computer industry is
actually lower in 2010 than
it was in 1975.
#19 Median U.S. household income is
down 5 percent from its peak of more than $52,000 in 1999.
#20 A study recently released by the Center for
Retirement Research at Boston College University found that Americans are
$6.6 trillion short of what they need for retirement … ‘
Black
September Postponed, New Month Yet To Be Determined Shell ‘… US markets
have to assimilate notes from the FOMC meeting and various housing reports this
week. Today, the National Association of Home Builders Index came in at 13,
unchanged from the previous month. With 50 a neutral number, there was no
optimism here. Tomorrow US building permits and housing starts will be
announced. With US home seizures and bank foreclosures rising to records, and
banks offering these home in competition with new homes, new home builders may
be relying upon divine intervention to assist with their sales…’
Major Indices Up Against the Wall ‘ …
Bad News:
Oil
dropped to a two week low on concerns for global growth.
Ireland
and Portugal were back in the news with the Irish/German Bund spread reaching
record highs along with the cost of insurance on their debt; the story was the
same in Portugal and these developments helped to drive the Euro down against
the dollar.
Barclays
Bank (BCS) issued a memo saying that Ireland may
need IMF help, a view that was promptly and vigorously denied by the Irish
government, but the markets seemed to rebuff those denials as gold reached a
new record high.
On
the home front, Fed Ex (FDX) reported
seeing slower growth ahead and on Friday we saw our 125th bank failure for the
year.
The
New York Empire Manufacturing Index posted a huge miss for September, coming in
at 4.1, down from a previous 7.1 and consensus estimate of 6.4
Industrial
production declined in August to +0.2% from +0.6%.
On
Friday, an unexpected drop in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
index to 66.6 for September took that index to its lowest level in more than a
year.
Unemployment
remains at a quarter century high while in 2009, the U.S. poverty rate was the
highest since 1994, with 14% of Americans living below the poverty line.
In
the all important real estate market, Realty Trac reported that bank
repossessions hit a record high in August and now one out of every 380 homes in
America are in some phase of the foreclosure process. There is now a three year
supply of distressed homes on the market and this comes against the backdrop of
household wealth declining 2.8% in the second quarter and the lowest median
household income since 1997.
The
lumber industry is an important facet of the U.S. economy and is reflective of
the state of the housing industry. This week the Western Wood Products
Association reports that 2009 was its worst year on record and that 2010 timber
sales and production could be even worse. In 2005, the U.S. had a record 2.1
million housing starts that dropped to 555,000 in 2009, the lowest number of
starts since World War II.
All
of this would lead to the obvious conclusion that we could expect still lower
home prices ahead.
What It All Means
From
a technical standpoint, the markets are poised for a significant decline and
from a macro standpoint; significant risks are inherent in the slowing economy
and problems in Europe heating up yet again. Seasonality also points to
increasing danger as September and October tend to be treacherous months for
market declines.
Furthermore,
mutual fund cash levels are at record lows and this phenomenon was also in play
before both the 2000 and 2008 market meltdowns. With not much gas left in the
tank and an ominous macro environment, it’s hard to make a bullish case in the
weeks ahead.
However
there’s always the possibility for upside surprises from resilient earnings
reports and ever present, not so invisible hand of government intervention here
and abroad.
A
sustained breakout higher will likely lead to a significant rally while failure
here will likely lead to a significant correction to test recent lows.
The most likely probability is for a move lower and Wall Street Sector Selector
remains in the “Red Flag” mode, expecting lower prices ahead.’
How
Wall Street Manipulates the News...And Investors Shaefer Wall Street’s
business model depends upon two factors:
(1) Keeping
you interested enough in the markets to leave your cash with them so they can
float it, make a return on it higher than the one they pay you, and use your
cash to convince the regulators that they have enough in “assets” to borrow
money to expand their own proprietary trading, and...
(2) Keeping
you trading. The easiest way for them to do this is to slant the news favorably
for a few weeks to a few months, then slant the same or similar news
unfavorably for a few weeks to a few months. This way, they get you to buy on
their alleged good news, then sell when the news “turns bad” and hopes are
dashed. That gives them two commissions instead of one. Done over the course of
a year, it gives them dozens rather than one or two.
A recent case
in point is the current rally based upon the fact that the ISM Manufacturing
index rose from 55.5 to 56.3, an inconsequential amount not much bigger than a
rounding error, from July to August of 2010, an inconsequential time frame too
short to measure anything meaningful. The following week, the ISM
Non-Manufacturing Index (“services” rather than manufacturing) fell a rather
more consequential 54.3 to 51.5, its lowest reading since January, a rather
more consequential time frame. Since Services comprise three-quarters of US
economic activity, one might think this would have been cause for concern. But
the news was buried on page 16 because Wall Street wants us buying now, not
selling. Once they have their shorts in place (today? tomorrow?) so they can
profit both from their short positions and from retail investors’ panic selling
and the commissions that flow only from activity, you’ll find “the news” has
magically turned bad again. Then, after they have your commission dollars and
their profits from short-selling, they'll spin the news positively again. It’s
a classic example of Lucy van Pelt whisking the football away from Charlie
Brown every time he gets th-i-i-s close to actually kicking it through the
uprights. But you don’t have to play along! Stand back from the daily barrage
of data and “commentary” on the data and you’ll see the entire process more
clearly. And if you agree, you might take a look at selling into euphoria and buying
into despair, as we try to do. The current outlook is supposedly nothing but
lollipops and rainbows, so we are now short via ProShares' inverse ETFs:
S&P 500 (SH), Emerging Markets (EUM), and Russell 2000 (RWM). I expect a rally based upon
real, versus manufactured, slanted and spun, news, this fall. Throwing out the
current crop of ne’er-do-wells in Congress alone should be good for a few
hundred points on the Dow. But, personally, I don’t see that rally mounting
from 10,600. No, Wall Street needs to terrify the public one more time, so they
can cover their short positions and buy cheaply as the public sells. A decline
below 10,000, possibly well below 10,000, is in their interest before the next
big rally. Do your own due diligence – stand aside and watch the manipulation
of the silliest sorts of news like: “Only 450,000 newly-unemployed this month
in America! Economists had predicted 460,000!! Buy!!! Buy!!!!” And if you
agree, take a look at the above and other inverse ETFs. I imagine they’ll be very
good to us over the next few weeks or couple months…
Author's
Disclosure: We and those
clients for whom it is appropriate own or are purchasing SH, EUM, and RWM.
The Fine
Print: As Registered
Investment Advisors, we see it as our responsibility to advise the following:
we do not know your personal financial situation, so the information contained
in this communiqué represents the opinions of the staff of Stanford Wealth
Management, and should not be construed as personalized investment advice. Past
performance is no guarantee of future results, rather an obvious statement but
clearly too often unheeded judging by the number of investors who buy the
current #1 mutual fund only to watch it plummet next month! We encourage you to
do your own research on individual issues we recommend for your analysis to see
if they might be of value in your own investing. We take our responsibility to
proffer intelligent commentary seriously, but it should not be assumed that
investing in any securities we are investing in will always be profitable. We
do our best to get it right, and we “eat our own cooking,” but we could be
wrong, hence our full disclosure as to whether we own or are buying the
investments we write about.’
The
Mega-Bear Quartet and L-Shaped 'Recoveries' Doug Short I retired this chart series in early August in
deference to my preferred inflation-adjusted
series that aligns the S&P 500 2000 high with the Nikkei peak in 1989.
Here's an update of the retired series by special request.
This chart
series overlays the current S&P 500 with the L-shaped
"recoveries" after the Dow Crash of 1929, the Nikkei 225 after
Japan's 1989 bubble, and the post Tech Bubble NASDAQ. Click the chart below for
a larger version and use the links to see various comparisons. [chart]
I've also
included an updated two-decade inflation-adjusted
chart, which gives us a fascinating visualization of the impact of
inflation on long-term market prices. The higher the rate of inflation during a
bear market, the greater the real decline. Compare, for example, the peak of
the Dow rally in year seven with the same peak in the two-decade nominal
chart. The difference is the result of deflation during the Great
Depression.
It's rather stunning to see the real (inflation-adjusted) decline of the
Nikkei, two decades years after its crash. The recent lows rival the traumatic
Dow bottom in 1932, less than 3 years after its peak.
These charts remind us that bear markets can last a long time. And it's not
necessary to go back to the Great Depression for an example.
[See also my preferred
version, which puts the start of the current secular bear in 2000 with the
popping of the Tech Bubble. In inflation-adjusted terms, the S&P 500
reached its all-time high in March 2000. Although the nominal high in October
2007 was higher, the "real" high was not.]
Note: These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study
the today's market in relation to historic market cycles.
The Analysts Are Starting to Get Silly Moenning In doing my weekend
research, I came across a couple of items that reminded me why I am such a
cynic:
First,
beware of "Conventional Wisdom": I believe it is safe to say that it
is widely accepted that Merger & Acquisition (M&A) activity is
generally viewed as a positive. That it reflects a view that "stocks are
cheap" and that the act of buying represents a source of demand. While
true to some degree, I found the following points from an opposing view to be
interesting:
Here are some interesting points; I'm
sure you'll agree:
Second, in this week's Barron's
I came across the following excerpt from "The Weekly Speculator"
(date tagged Sept. 16) in the Market Watch Section. I use this only as an
example, and not as a general criticism of this newsletter. The excerpt reads
in part as follows:
...but it is our belief that recent
months have seen a data cycle play out, rather than a genuine moderation of
economic activity. Support for this view has certainly been delivered in recent
weeks by a sudden firming of US economic data, which has consistently been
above consensus since late August.
Really?
It seems to me that housing sales have
collapsed since the the "Home Buyer Credit" ended. Automobile sales
cratered after the "Cash for Clunkers" program finished. Inventories
are building again, which may very well not be a sign of confidence, but simply
overstocking. Consumer credit continues to contract. Consumer sentiment is
falling. I could go on.
Certainly there have been some positive
reports, mostly it seems relating to layoffs, jobless claims, etc. But in
general, I read the data as bottom-bouncing at best, and a re-intensifying
contraction as a fair possibility. Examine the below table of recent economic
reports which I have compiled. It is by no means complete, but hopefully will
give a fair representation of recent economic reports. You be the judge:
Recent Economic Data
|
|
|
Reuters |
Reuters |
|
9/17 |
UofM Conf |
66.6 |
70.0 |
68.9 |
Worse |
9/16 |
Philly Fed |
-0.70 |
3.8 |
-7.7 |
Missed |
9/16 |
Jobless Claims |
450K |
455K |
451K |
Better |
9/16 |
Producer Price Index |
+0.4% |
+0.3% |
+0.2% |
Worst |
9/15 |
Industrial Production |
+0.2% |
+0.2% |
+1.0% |
Worst |
9/15 |
Empire Manuf Survey |
4.14 |
5.00 |
7.10 |
Weakening |
9/14 |
Business Inventories |
+1.0% |
+0.6% |
+0.3% |
Improving |
9/14 |
Retail Sales |
+0.4% |
+0.3% |
+0.4% |
Better? |
9/10 |
Wholesale Inventories |
+1.3% |
N/A |
+0.1% |
Improving |
9/8 |
Consumer Credit |
-$3.6 billion |
-$3.5 billion |
-$1.3 billion |
Weakening |
9/8 |
Beige Book |
Widespread Signs |
N/A |
N/A |
Weakening |
9/3 |
Non-Farm Payroll |
-54K |
-90K |
-131K |
Better |
9/3 |
Unemployment Rate |
9.6% |
9.6% |
9.5% |
Flat/Worsening |
9/2 |
Factory Orders |
+0.1% |
+0.3% |
-0.6% |
Weak |
9/1 |
Domestic Car Sales |
8.3M |
8.7M |
8.9M |
Weaker |
8/25 |
New Home Sales |
276K |
340K |
330K |
Record Low |
8/24 |
Existing Home Sales |
3.83M |
4.65M |
5.37M |
15 year low |
Relating to the decline in outstanding
consumer credit, I believe that this is part of the consumer getting their
house in order. I feel that it will help build a solid foundation from which a
secular (long-term) economic advance could begin such as the 50s and 60s and
the 80s and 90s.
For the immediate future however, I am
of the opinion that declining consumer credit reflects an attitude by the
consumer to spend less, and this will be a damper to the economy in the short
run.
Inventory build-ups are more of an iffy
situation. If the reflect an unintended accumulation of unsold merchandise,
then a period of inventory reduction may be forth-coming. It is this inventory
reduction that concerns me and would be one more near term negative.
So, what do take away from this? Just
because it's written or spoken doesn't make it true, even my statements. Take
very little on faith, especially when it is regarding the markets.
"Trust no one" - Walter
Donovan to Indiana Jones, Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade
Disclosure: No positions
Historian:
Mao Greatest Mass Murderer in World History Independent | Mr Dikötter is the only author to have delved into
the Chinese archives since they were reopened four years ago.
Bill
Maher digs up O'Donnell 'witchcraft' clip (AP) [ She’s done! There’s no excuse for that! None! ] ‘… "I dabbled into witchcraft. I never
joined a coven," she said. " ... I hung around people who were doing
these things. I'm not making this stuff up. I know what they told me they
do," she said. "... One of my first dates with a witch was on a
satanic altar, and I didn't know it. I mean, there's little blood there and
stuff like that," she said. "We went to a movie and then had a little
midnight picnic on a satanic altar." …’ Occult
Obsessed Elite Claim Christine O’Donnell is a Witch Kurt Nimmo | The corporate media, the propaganda organ of the global elite, sets
its sites on Delaware’s Christine O’Donnell. … Sorry kurt … there’s no excuse
for that … she’s done!
Defaults
- Not Frugality - Account for Debt Decline
‘If you think that American consumers have found religion when it comes
to debt, you might be surprised by what really is happening. From the
WSJ:
First, consider household debt. Over the two years
ending June 2010, the total value of home-mortgage debt and consumer credit
outstanding has fallen by about $610 billion, to $12.6 trillion, according to
theFederal Reserve. That’s an annualized decline of about
2.3%, which is pretty impressive given the fact that such debts grew at an
annualized rate in excess of 10% over the previous decade.
There are two ways, though, that the debts can
decline: People can pay off existing loans, or they can renege on the loans,
forcing the lender to charge them off. As it happens, the latter accounted for
almost all the decline. Over the two years ending June 2010, banks and other
lenders charged off a total of about $588 billion in mortgage and consumer
loans, according to data from the Fed and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.
That means consumers managed to shave off only $22
billion in debt through the kind of belt-tightening we typically envision. In
other words, in the absence of defaults, they would have achieved an annualized
decline of only 0.08%…’
Drudgereport: GREAT ESCAPE: HOUSE MAY
ADJOURN '3 WEEKS EARLY’ [ Two views: 1) Despite the rhetoric, spin, fake data,
etc., the country is defacto bankrupt and ashambles 2) At least they won’t be
able to do more damage ] '
Prince Charles: 'I happily
talk to plants, trees' … yeah, inbreeding eventually takes its toll ...
UK Proposes All Paychecks Go to the State First… Wow! ...
WHAT YOU SAID: WHAT YOU SAID
(Washington Post) ‘ Ralph Novak Lincoln, Calif. I retired in 1983 after 24 years as an Air Force
officer and retired again from DoD as a GS-15 in early 2005 after 20 years of
service and moved to Northern California in 2006’. … ‘Yeah, I'm not rich, but my out-of-work neighbors who used to
have household incomes of $300K to $500K and house payments of $5K to $8K a
month look at me with a lot of envy. I worked hard, saved the TSP max and am
thankful that my wife took the long view and pressed me to stay with the
federal government. It's hard to see what monetary value there is in spending
an entire career as a GS employee when you are working long, stress-filled days
and years. But the first thing you should do after retirement is to go to your
next high school/college reunion and see how the rest of the world is
doing.’ [What a typical pathetic loser
this guy is; and typifies that government employee attitude of indispensability
when in fact they are not only superfluous and expendable, but actually a
substantial drag on the nation but are a positive in one respect … adding to
the nations insurmountable debt; ‘long, stress-filled days and years’ … don’t
make me laugh! He forgot to say that
incompetent (and corrupt, etc.) government types like him, living off the ever
expanding bureaucratic t*t (bushes are a great example as well, etc.) have
played a huge role in creating the deplorable conditions and debacle the
defacto bankrupt nation is now facing. ]
Secretary of stand-up: Corny Washington
jokes? Robert Gates has a million of 'em. (Washington
Post) [ Could it be that’s because he
is a joke. Certainly his prognosticating continues to be … a joke. Aw, well,
what the heck, he’s an affable killer from the CIA and he has resuscitated the
heroin trade in Afghanistan, along with protracted war, etc., after all … eh …
cut him some slack … riiiiight! ]
Economists Herald New Great
Depression The world is currently
experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression, according to a
prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others now forecasting
ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.) , and my position,
Nobel Prize Winner Krugman’s, and that of demographer Dent … This is a global depression. This is a
secular bear market in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated
bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically
manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that
the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical
wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior
crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until
justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted,
jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed … Krugman: It's All Downhill From
Here Cullen Roche Love him or hate him
Paul Krugman has been awfully right with regards to the macro picture in the
last few years. He’s one of the rare economists who had the foresight to see
the housing bubble and the likelihood of economic downturn that would result
from it. Krugman recently caused a stir when he said the US economy was headed
for the third depression. He isn’t back down from that outlook:
I’ve had a couple of conversations
lately with people who follow politics and public affairs, but aren’t that
close to the economic discussion — and I’ve discovered that there are two
comforting delusions still out there.
Delusion #1 is that we’re on the road
to recovery, just more slowly than we’d like; to be fair, the White House keeps
saying this.
But it’s not at all true. GDP is
growing below potential; employment, even if you focus just on private
employment, is growing more slowly than the working-age population. If you ask
how long it will take us to return to, say, 5 percent unemployment on the
current track, the answer is forever.
Delusion #2 is the belief that the
stimulus may yet do the trick, because there are still substantial funds
unspent. I tried to deal with this last year.
The level of GDP depends not on total funds spent, but on the rate at which
funds are being spent, which has already peaked; GDP growth on the rate of
change in the rate at which funds are being spent, which peaked last year. It’s
all downhill from here.
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a
Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010 and
2012). ]
Accumulating
Incongruities [ Bottom line in this article is that the author (and
me) doesn’t buy the labor / unemployment
stats which have been skewed / guesstimated to the up side which probably is no
surprise given the abounding desperation and proximity to the elections ]
Household
Net Worth Plunges By Most Since Q4 2008, As Government Borrowing Surges In
other words, the net wealth of the US household continues to track the
performance of the stock market tick for tick. And one wonders why the Fed, per
Alan Greenspan’s admission, is only focused on ramping stocks up to all time
highs.
This
is only half of the story though. Despite all these methodological weaknesses I
was curious enough to look for the list of states with the worst and best
poverty rates. I skimmed through their 88 page report but I could not find a
single table breaking down their flawed results by state. This must be top
secret information, I said to myself.
RT’s
Anastasia Churkina re-visits Tent City – a homeless camp tucked away in the
woods of New Jersey, where over 40 people have been forced to live, with
nowhere else to go.
Rouibini
has never been much of a fan of gold. Which is why we were not too surprised
when we read RGE’s latest recommendation on the precious metal, which, as
expected was to take profits.
More
than a third (36%) of respondents believe “walking away” from the mortgage is
acceptable, according to a Pew Research Center survey released today.
Drudgereport: Doomsday warnings of US apocalypse gain
ground...
Audit: $2 million per
stimulus job...
1 in 7 Americans lives in
poverty...
50-year high...
Foreclosures Rise; Repossessions Set Record...
Gold hits new high...
US poverty on track to post record
gain under Obama...
Last minute aid helps city dodge default...
MICHELLE IN 'HELL': 'CAN'T
STAND' FIRST LADY JOB … (at least there’s some reciprocity) ...
BREITBART Shock
Audio: Facing 'Obligations' From Leadership, Democrat Congresswoman Leaves
Voicemail for Lobbyist Cash...
RASMUSSEN: First Post-Primary
Poll, Coons winning in Delaware
Coons (D) 53% O’Donnell (R) 42%
Will
light bulb manufacturing stay in the U.S.? [ Methinks it’s a bit late to be
asking that question. In fact, meknows it’s too late to be asking that question
in light of the irrevocable structural shift precipitated by those geniuses in
Washington, including among other helmsmen of this now titanic of a nation,
those ‘strategists’ in those hallowed halls of, ie., the cia, nsa, think tanks,
sink tanks, etc., and of course, those vaunted trade deals which include
essentially all branches of the corrupt u.s. government with complicit titans /
ceos of american industry with a time horizon defined by their latest
compensation package / stock option expirations as cheered by the wall street
frauds who sold off / transferred the technological capacity to do so; and, of
course, the coup de grace, viz., that thing called NAFTA that Ross Perot was
vilified for opposing and warning against. There is really nothing in america
that can’t be produced cheaper elsewhere. Then there’s the defacto bankruptcy
of the nation when even more corporate welfare / subsidies would be necessary
to make such even remotely possible. As for prospective purported technological
advances / innovations, from my view there’s only so much utility that can
derived / squeezed from ‘hula hoops’. ]
Bank got even more special
help
(Washington Post) [ Special help? …
Talk about euphemisms … LA, yes dudes, way (as they say in the valley! ] OneUnited, now at the center of a House
ethics probe, received TARP aid despite its poor health. Warren
to be tapped as adviser (Washington Post) [ Well, that about does it …
slam-dunk for the administration … yet another ivy leaguer who at least to her
credit has talked tough; but, show us the prosecutions … show us the money
(they took) ! Show them the jail walls!
Handcuffs For Wall Street, Not
Happy Talk Zach Carter | The fraud allegations that have emerged over the past year are not
restricted to a few bad apples at shady companies — they involve some of the
largest players in global finance. ] Obama plans to tap Harvard law professor
to a special advisory role so she can help stand up a new consumer financial
protection bureau while avoiding a potentially vicious Senate confirmation
fight. Senate
passes small business credit measure (Washington Post) [ Riiiiight! That
should do the trick! Besides … It’s an election year … time to celebrate … you
know, don’t worry, be happy … and what’s a paltry amount like that anyway for
defacto bankrupt america, an interest payment on the insurmountable debt anyway
… what the heck! (Economists Herald New Great
Depression , see infra) ]The bill creates a $30 billion government fund to help open
lending for credit-starved small businesses, cut their taxes and boost federal
loan programs for them.
Clinton
wraps up Israeli, Palestinian talks - for now (Washington
Post) [ That’s a wrap (Hollywood speak), or just a lot of crap (reality). Well
some celluloid facetime (hill, I said celluloid, not cellulite), appearance of
doing something (not). U.S.
urges Arab states to drop israel nuclear treaty demand Reuters Oooooh! Wow! Sounds like
a plan! … For world conflagration … Another step toward nuclear prone middle
east … israel should be exempt because ….. ‘US –
Israel’s partner in crime, not a referee’ … You really can’t make this stuff up; the preposterous s***
coming out of america! ]The U.S. envoy to the UN atomic watchdog urged Arab
states to withdraw a resolution calling on Israel to sign an anti-nuclear arms
treaty, warning it would send a negative signal to Middle East peace
talks. Israelis,
Palestinians already broaching tough topics in talks, envoy says (Washington
Post) ‘US –
Israel’s partner in crime, not a referee’ (Infowars.com) Israeli and Palestinian leaders are holding a new
round of direct talks. Bombshell:
Barack Obama conclusively outed as CIA creation Wayne Madsen |
Investigative journalist Wayne Madsen has discovered CIA files that document
the agency’s connections to the lives of Barack Obama and his mother, father,
grandmother, and stepfather. ]
RAMALLAH, WEST BANK - Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton on Thursday
wrapped up three days of intense Middle East diplomacy that produced good
atmospherics but no sign that an impasse over Israeli settlement construction
has been resolved. (Alex Brandon - AP)
Leading Economic Indicators Continue to Suggest Return to
Contraction Is Likely
U.S.
Economy "Gradually Deteriorating," Levy Says: Recession Likely in
2011
Ten Reasons This Rally Is Ultimately Toast
Wachtel ‘Here are 10 reasons why risk assets (stocks, riskier forex pairs,
industrial commodities) have a very high probability of a pullback very soon.
Technical Indicators: High Risk Of Downturn
The S&P
500 is the best single representative of overall risk appetite. It is telling
us that a pullback is coming very soon. (chart)
1. Coming Bounce Off Of Upper Bollinger Band (standard 2, 20 default settings):
Once the index starts to pull back from its upper Bollinger
band, it usually pulls back to at least its 50 day SMA, often lower. Since the
end of the most recent rally in late April, this rule has worked flawlessly in
both mid-June and mid-August. The index is now once again at its upper
Bollinger Band.
Up Against Multiple Reinforcing Layers Of Strong Resistance
Around 1120.
2. Upper Bollinger Band (noted above).
3. 200 day SMA (purple line).
4. 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the February 2010 low (which
has held up well as support, only violated for a few sessions in July and
August).
5. Neckline (red horizontal line around 1125) of the big bearish
Head-And-Shoulders pattern dating all the way back to the beginning of 2010.
Left shoulder in January, head in April, and right shoulder in June.
6. This same resistance at 1125 is reinforced by another bearish
chart pattern- a bearish double top (that may soon become a triple top if the
above indicators prove correct).
7. Recent Rally On Low Volume: The rally that began in late
August has been on very low volume, which suggests lack of conviction and thus
less durability.
Fundamentals Don’t Support A Rally
8. We are heading into the second half of the month, which is
lighter on significant news data than would be needed to justify a push past
the above strong resistance layers
In addition, there is the overwhelmingly bearish fundamental
backdrop:
9. US economic slowdown in every meaningful category: housing
prices (where the bear market began), jobs, spending, etc. Even manufacturing,
until recently a rare bright spot, has been slowing since the prior Philly Fed
report.
10. The ongoing and utterly unsolved EU sovereign debt/banking
crisis, with its now periodic eruptions. While we have no major eruptions
reported recently, PIIGS sovereign and bank yields and CDS rates remain at
May’s crisis levels, a clear indication that markets are very nervous and ready
to sell off, as they have over the past weeks on news of Ireland’s latest bank
bailout and a Wall Street Journal article on how the EU bank stress tests
understated PIIGS bond exposure.
As noted in previous posts, support and resistance must be
viewed as zones rather than precise points. The lack of news noted above could
allow for continued quiet drift upward to 1140 or even a bit more.
However, that leaves little room to profit for anyone except
very short term traders. Others should be planning short trades as the S&P
and other risk assets head back down to test support. For the S&P 500 that
would be around 1040 in the near term.
DISCLOSURE & DISCLAIMER: NO POSITIONS, THE ABOVE IS FOR
INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND NOT TO BE CONSTRUED AS SPECIFIC TRADING ADVICE.
RESPONSIBILITY FOR TRADE DECISIONS IS SOLELY WITH THE READER.’
Philadelphia
Manufacturing Index Falls
Yen hits 15-year high
vs dollar Reuters | The dollar
hit a 15-year low against the yen on Tuesday, testing Japanese authorities’
resolve to stem the yen’s climb after Prime Minister Naoto Kan won a party
leadership vote.
Regional
Manufacturing Still Deteriorating
Despite Range Trading - Prominent Sell Signals Still
Alive On Thursday September 16, 2010, 12:35 pm EDT About a month ago, news about the ominous
Hindenburg Omen, terrible September/October and other prominent sell signals
were the big buzz around Wall Street. Has the recent rally and range bound
trading neutralized or even eliminated the bearish undercurrents? A look at
current sentiment would make you think so. Sentiment surveys show that
bullishness has soared and optimists are back in control (see chart below).But
are the optimists generally right? No. In fact, unfounded optimism is one of
the biggest investment traps and most effective bear market tricks. On April
16, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned that: 'The message conveyed by
the composite bullishness is unmistakably bearish. Most bulls have no clue why
they are bullish except for the fact that they feel the need to play the
momentum game. Sounds like 2000 and 2007 all over again.' When it comes to
investing, emotions tend to get in the way of making money. It takes an
opportunistic, yet realistic approach to profit in this market.
Parallels Between 2000, 2007, and Today
From a purely analytical point of view, the April ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter examined the 2000 and 2007 market tops and compared them with the
2010 price action, at a time when optimism was soaring sky-high. The parallels
between the 2000, 2007 and forming 2010 tops were striking, that's why the
newsletter concluded that: 'A comparison between the 2000 and 2007 double tops
to the current constellations shows that the market may roll over at any time.'
Similar to the January/April 2000 and July/October 2007 double tops, the April
2010 highs were preceded by a lower January top. But the parallels didn't stop
there.
Major Tops Followed by Decoy Rallies
Following the initial 2007 decline, the April, May 2008 rally rekindled new
hope and pushed the major indexes a la Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI), S&P (SNP:
^GSPC), and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) briefly above their 200-day moving average
(MA). Following the initial April 2010 decline, the July/August rally also
pushed the S&P briefly above the 200-day MA. Both, in 2008 and 2010,
the indexes were rebuffed by the 200-day MA. The failure to stay above the
200-day MA in May 2008 was followed by a 53.75% decline in the S&P 500.
Former performance leaders like the Financial Select Sector SPDRs (NYSEArca: XLF - News) and KBW Bank ETF (NYSEArca: KBE - News) tumbled 79%, the Technology
Sector SPDRs (NYSEArca: XLK - News) dropped 49%. Even conservative
sectors such as utilities (NYSEArca: XLU - News) and healthcare (NYSEArca: XLV - News) dropped another 35 - 45%. Like a
free diver who comes up for air, the market tends to rally to keep investors
engaged before the next leg down. The chart below - which plots bullish
advisor sentiment against the price of the S&P 500 from June 2007 - September
2010, illustrates the market's cruel habit of spreading hope just before the
hammer drops. [chart]
It Happened Before
Since we are talking about prior market tops, we can't help but mention the
mother of all sucker rallies, which occurred in 1929/1930. Following the
initial 1929 meltdown, the 1930 rally recouped 50% of the previously lost
points. Ironically, the 1930 rally ended on April 16. The 2010 counter trend
rally ran its course on April 26. In addition to a near identical termination
date, the two rallies rekindled the same kind of bullish sentiment. Below are a
few headlines and statement from April 1930. Keep in mind that the Dow went on
to decline more than 80% thereafter. 'For the immediate future, the outlook is
bright' - Irving Fisher, Ph. D. in Economics 'I see nothing in the present
situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism.' - Andrew W. Mellon,
U. S. Secretary of the Treasury 'The depression is over' - Herbert Hoover,
President If you escaped the market in
time, you might be able to read the following April 2010 headlines with a fair
shot of humor and realize the irony: 'As job worries ease, will anything stop
the stock market?' – CNBC 'Dow 11,000 is only the beginning' - Wall Street
Journal 'Check the real estate: It is time to delve in' - Wall Street Journal
It Happened Recently
It's easy to dismiss any parallels to the Great Depression simply because it
happened 80 years ago. However, an 80% drop is nothing unusual and has been
seen recently. The Nasdaq (Nasdaq: QQQQ - News) peaked in 2000 and tumbled 78.4%
within less than two years. Much evidence suggests that the Nasdaq's woes are
not yet over with more losses and lower lows on the horizon. Oil prices tumbled
77% after topping at $147.3 a barrel in 2008. Both, the Nasdaq and oil prices
topped at a time when higher prices were a foregone conclusion. With regards to
oil, the expectation for higher fuel prices moved all major car manufacturers
to advertise and build low MPG cars. As soon as their commercials hit TVs,
radios, and newspapers across the country, oil and fuel prices started to drop
like a rock. Some still dismiss those declines as sector bubbles, not broad
market declines.
It Happened to an Entire Country
The Nikkei is Japan's version of the S&P 500 and covers hundreds of stocks.
In 1989, the Nikkei topped at 38,946. Since then, it has dropped over 80% to
below 8,000 (see chart below, published in the April 2010 ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter). [chart] Throughout this 20-year decline, the Nikkei had eleven
rallies of 20% or more and four that were 50% or more. In total, the Nikkei
rallied well over 250,000 rally points, yet it remains 76% below its 1989 peak.
The decline of Japan's stock market (NYSEArca: EWJ - News) and economy happened amidst a
global bull market. Imagine what can happen to the U.S. stock market during a
global recession spurred by European (NYSEArca: FEZ - News) debt woes and global stock market
(NYSEArca: EFA - News) weakness. It's human nature to
rationalize and invent reasons why something can't happen. It's the stock
market's nature to prove investors wrong. Based on parallels that aren't
farfetched by any means, a follow through of the post 2007 U.S. equity meltdown
is more than just a possibility.
Fundamentals, Technicals, Valuations, and History in Agreement
Investing is about putting the odds in your favor. There is no such thing as a
100% certain profit opportunity. However, there are high probability profit
opportunities where the odds of having a winning trade are high and the
potential reward is much higher than the potential risk. Such high probability
profit opportunities occur when as many indicators as possible point in the
same direction. Right now, there is a near unanimous consent between
fundamental and technical indicators, along with valuations and historic
patterns. The latest ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter includes a detailed analysis of various
market forecasting tools, along with a short, mid, and long-term outlook for
the U.S. stock market and a target range for the ultimate market bottom. Even
though the economic outlook is dim, realistic investors can feel optimistic
about the opportunities in the months and years ahead. ,
August
Foreclosures Highest on Record RealtyTrac, an online foreclosure sale site,
will release its monthly numbers on Thursday, but sources there confirm the
number of repossessions will come in just shy of 100,000 for the month.
Stock
Market Goes Into A Coma: Here's What You Need To Know Weisenthal ‘Snooze. Fest. But first, the
scoreboard;
Dow: +22.75
NASDAQ: +1.83
S&P 500: -044
And now, the top stories:
Drudgereport: Doomsday warnings of US apocalypse gain
ground...
1 in 7 Americans lives in
poverty...
50-year high...
Foreclosures Rise; Repossessions Set Record...
Gold hits new high...
US poverty on track to post record
gain under Obama...
Last minute aid helps city dodge default...
MICHELLE IN 'HELL': 'CAN'T
STAND' FIRST LADY JOB … (at least there’s some reciprocity) ...
BREITBART Shock
Audio: Facing 'Obligations' From Leadership, Democrat Congresswoman Leaves
Voicemail for Lobbyist Cash...
RASMUSSEN: First Post-Primary
Poll, Coons winning in Delaware
Coons (D) 53% O’Donnell
(R) 42%
O'Donnell's
win throws a challenge at the GOP [ Aw shucks!
Change just around the corner say the bipartisan incumbents… change afoot, like
wobama’s foot in his mouth / a** change …
Let’s get real … no real change is a-coming … but ‘hopium’ (previously
discussed) is a powerfully addictive drug. Let’s all awake from this hopium
induced stupor and read these government frauds the riot act! Defacto
bankrupt american politics are getting downright nasty (AP). Ask nancy
pelosi, ‘the wicked witch of the west’
( only a minute, this political ad by John Dennis is well done and very
funny) http://albertpeia.com/nancypelosiwickedwitchofthewest.flv
. ] By beating their candidate for the Senate seat in Delaware, the tea
party sends a message to the Republican establishment: You are not in
charge. Frustration with GOP pushed
win O'Donnell's win in the Delaware Senate
primary reflects voter sentiment toward party elders.
Stocks'
rise defies record Underestimating
the Risks of the Stock Market
Keep in mind, this is an election year and as good as it gets, as bad as
it is beyond the spun / fake market-frothing
data ] [Babak ‘If you spend
enough time trading and studying the markets you realize viscerally that
markets tend to fall and fall hard much more than they rise. We got a very good
example of this in the 2008 bear market where the S&P 500 index gave back
in about 18 months all the gains that had taken it almost 5 years to accumulate
(March 2003 to October 2007). The theoretical framework that many people use
and that which is still taught in finance classes across the globe continues to
assume that returns fall into a normal distribution. While it is useful to know
that modern portfolio theory and EMH are flimsy theories with no real world
applications, it doesn’t help us to recalibrate our instruments to just how
asymmetrical stock returns really are. To get at that answer, the research team
at Welton Investments compared the actual distribution of returns from the
S&P 500 index over the past 50 years with the expected risk based on a
Monte Carlo simulation. The results are shown in the chart below: [ chart Source:
Tail Risk ] This
study shows that investors continuously and severely underestimated negative
returns. In fact, going by rolling quarterly losses of 20% or more, investors
experienced 5.3 times more of these “fat tail” events than that accounted for
by the expectations based on a normal distribution. That difference is huge!
Knowing this historical reality, investors have two choices: either don’t play
the game (get out of stocks) or play but have a safety net handy for the
inevitable fall …’ ]Defying September's
track record of being unkind to investors, the stock market has shot up for the
past two weeks as investors have grown less fearful the economy will slip into
another recession.
Empire
State Manufacturing Falls in September
Technical Resistance: Here We Go Again Hui ‘…The odds seem to
favor another downleg for a couple of reasons.
First of all, investor sentiment has gotten incredibly bullish
in the space of a couple of weeks, which is contrarian bearish.
More important for the intermediate term, the market is facing a number of
macro headwinds of economic weakness starting in 4Q. John Hussman noted in his
latest weekly comment [emphasis added]: As I've noted frequently
in recent commentaries, the typical lag between deterioration in say, the ECRI
Weekly Leading Index and the ISM Purchasing Managers Index is about 13 weeks,
and sometimes longer. The typical lag with respect to new claims for
unemployment is about 23-26 weeks (which puts the likely window of deterioration
at about the October - November time frame), and the typical lag with
respect to the payroll unemployment report is, not surprisingly, about 4 weeks
beyond that.
Uber-bear Albert Edwards put it more bluntly:The
current situation reminds me of mid 2007. Investors then were content to stick
their heads into very deep sand and ignore the fact that The Great Unwind had
clearly begun. But in August and September 2007, even though the wheels were
clearly falling off the global economy, the S&P still managed to rally 15%!
The recent reaction to data suggests the market is in a similar deluded state
of mind. Yet again, equity investors refuse to accept they are now locked in a
Vulcan death grip and are about to fall unconscious…’
The Dow Is Overbought on Its Daily Chart
To
Dip or Double-Dip? Janjigian There
has been a lot of talk lately about whether or not we will have a double-dip
recession. I have long been in the camp that says a double-dip is a real
possibility. I believe the probability for a second recession is higher now
than it was last March. But how does one actually assign a number to this
probability? The economists Nouriel Roubini and Martin Feldstein are perhaps
the most bearish on the economy. They say the chances of a second recession are
about one in three. This means they believe that if the economy were to
experience the same exact conditions it is experiencing now hundreds of times,
one-third of those times would result in a recession. Another way to look at is
that the probability that we will not have a second recession is about 67%. In other
words, even the most bearish economists believe there is a much better chance
that we will avoid a second recession than there is that we will actually have
one … [ Hey, come on! If they only were the most bearish on the economy … Economists Herald New Great
Depression The world is currently
experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression, according to a
prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others now forecasting
ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.) , and my position and that of demographer Dent (This is a global depression. This is a
secular bear market in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated
bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically
manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that
the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical
wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior
crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until
justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted,
jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. Krugman: It's All Downhill From
Here Cullen Roche Love him or hate him
Paul Krugman has been awfully right with regards to the macro picture in the
last few years. He’s one of the rare economists who had the foresight to see
the housing bubble and the likelihood of economic downturn that would result
from it. Krugman recently caused a stir when he said the US economy was headed
for the third depression. He isn’t back down from that outlook:
I’ve had a couple of conversations
lately with people who follow politics and public affairs, but aren’t that
close to the economic discussion — and I’ve discovered that there are two
comforting delusions still out there.
Delusion #1 is that we’re on the road
to recovery, just more slowly than we’d like; to be fair, the White House keeps
saying this.
But it’s not at all true. GDP is
growing below potential; employment, even if you focus just on private
employment, is growing more slowly than the working-age population. If you ask
how long it will take us to return to, say, 5 percent unemployment on the
current track, the answer is forever.
Delusion #2 is the belief that the
stimulus may yet do the trick, because there are still substantial funds
unspent. I tried to deal with this last year.
The level of GDP depends not on total funds spent, but on the rate at which
funds are being spent, which has already peaked; GDP growth on the rate of
change in the rate at which funds are being spent, which peaked last year. It’s
all downhill from here.
Harry
Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012). ]
Industrial
output growth slows (Reuters) WASHINGTON (Reuters) – ‘U.S. industrial output slowed
last month and a regional measure of factory activity touched a 14-month low in
September, pointing to a cooling in manufacturing as the boost from an
inventory build-up fades. The reports on Wednesday were consistent with other
data suggesting the U.S. economy is stuck in a soft spot, but they also showed
the manufacturing sector continued to expand and
offered nothing to suggest a new recession was brewing. "We have a sharp
slowdown, but that doesn't look like it's going to develop into an outright
collapse," said Paul Ashworth, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics
in Toronto. Industrial production rose 0.2 percent in August, Federal Reserve
data showed, matching economists' forecasts for a sharp slowdown
from July when unusually strong auto manufacturing lifted output. July's gain
was revised down to 0.6 percent from 1 percent …’
Defacto bankrupt american politics are getting downright
nasty. Ask nancy
pelosi, ‘the wicked witch of the west’
http://albertpeia.com/nancypelosiwickedwitchofthewest.flv
.
Drudgereport: Doomsday warnings of US apocalypse gain
ground...
US poverty on track to post record
gain under Obama...
Last minute aid helps city dodge default...
NYC Disaster On Primary Day;
Machine Glitches Cause Chaos...
Bloomberg Blasts...
Feds probing...
US troops continue combat
missions in Iraq, despite Obama's end-of-war speech...
Poll workers being used to
inflate jobs totals?
Retirement on Hold: American Workers $6 Trillion Short...
REPUBLICAN ACCUSES WHITE HOUSE OF 'CLASS
WARFARE'...
Paul says GOP shares blame for deficits...
Kerry flip-flops on tax cuts...
Muslims protest Quran-burning plan...
Florida pastor calls it off...
Christians rip pages from Muslim holy book in
front of White House...
Man ignites Quran near Ground Zero...
VIDEO...
Mosque opponents, supporters face off in
downtown NYC...
OBAMA: 'We are not and never will
be at war with Islam'...
'Tea party' favorites score
in DE, NY...
Establishment Freaks...
'One nation under revolt'...
Christine Smacks Rove:
'So-Called Political Guru'...
CASH POURS IN FOR O'DONNELL; $500,000 IN ONE DAY...
Upsets...
RESULTS...
WIRE...
IN: RANGEL SURVIVES
CHALLENGE...
OUT: DC MAYOR VOTED DOWN IN UPSET...
HANGING: DINGELL WARNS DONORS
HE COULD LOSE...
Dems gamble by shifting fire
to Boehner...
Bill Clinton: New-look GOP
makes Bush look liberal!
POLL: Only 25% of public
trusts gov't...
The Crash, Obama and
Disappearing Dem Majority...
Jobless
strain Social Security's disability program (Washington Post) [ Jobless?
Strain? Disability? If only that were the only problem for the debacle that
will be called ‘social security’. Indeed, even at full employment, those
worthless iou’s will still be worthless as this typical capital hill political
math project will eventually, as with ponzi schemes generally, end very badly.
]
More
banks missing TARP dividend payments [ Isn’t it true as never before in the
short history of defacto bankrupt america, that nothing succeeds in america
quite like a lack of success? ] Bank Failure Friday
Continues at Seeking Alpha ‘…Bank Failure Friday
continues with the total number of failures for 2010 now up to 119 on the way
to 150 to 200, as the third quarter total ended September 10th at 33. During
“The Great Credit Crunch” the FDIC only closed 25 banks during all of 2008. In
2009 the FDIC picked up the pace with 140 bank failures with a peak of 50 in the
third quarter of 2009. So far in 2010 the FDIC closed 41 banks in the first
quarter, another 45 in the second quarter, and so far 33 for the third quarter.
With 119 bank failures so far in 2010 the total for “The Great Credit Crunch”
is up to 284 continuing its path to my predicted 500 to 800 by the end of 2012
into 2013 …]
Pearlstein:
A bold new breed of bank regulators (Washington Post) [ Wow! Gee! I had
always viewed Mr. Pearlstein as a grounded kind of guy. You know … somewhat
realistic … I guess I was wrong ‘cause who’s kidding whom? Criminal
prosecutions, jail, fines, and disgorgement are the only way to maximize
regulatory effectiveness, presently and prospectively. As of now, it pays for
the predisposed frauds to take what currently is miniscule chance of
prosecution for what have been and remain huge personal and corporate gains. Handcuffs For Wall Street, Not
Happy Talk Zach Carter | The fraud allegations that have emerged over the past year are not
restricted to a few bad apples at shady companies — they involve some of the
largest players in global finance. Finance groups: Long transition
to ease new bank rules (Washington Post) [ Basel’s all the rage … Riiiiight! Bonkers for Basel, the
thing in rally vogue this day … but,
not Basil as in Basil Rathbone of super sleuth Sherlock Holmes film fame who’d
make short shrift of this fraudulent wall street contagion that has swept over
Europe in a manner to rightfully earn the moniker ‘eventual black Friday
plague’ … and then there’s the ‘higher oil price’ part of the suckers’ rally.
We can certainly expect Rosanne Rosanna Danna formerly of SNL fame, as night
follows the day, to chime in with a reminder as her mama always used to say,
‘it’s always something’ … but unfortunately, that somethin’ is not
reality. YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]:
‘Broad-based buying on the back of Basel III boosted stocks to their fourth
straight gain, or seventh advance in eight sessions. Still, participation
remained unimpressive ... ‘ AP Business Highlights
‘… Banks get years to
adjust to new global rules BASEL,
Switzerland (AP) -- Bankers and analysts said new global rules could mean less
money available to lend to businesses and consumers, but praised a decision to
leave plenty of time -- until 2019 -- before the financial stability requirements
come into full force’ ] The requirements adopted by the Basel Committee
on Banking Supervision fall short of what's needed to prevent another financial
crisis. ]
Buried Alive - Prominent Sell Signals
Is the Stock Market Safe? [ This time the consensus is correct, in a
‘fish in a barrel’ kind of way! ]‘In a
word, no. That’s the general consensus found in a survey of individual
investors done by AP and CNBC this week. As if dealing with two major bear
markets since the turn of the century wasn’t enough, all the talk about high
frequency trading and the May 6th "Flash Crash" seems to have pushed
individual investors over the edge in terms of their comfort level with the
stock market. In fact, according to an AP/CNBC poll, 55% of those surveyed
believe the stock market is fair only to some investors. The bottom line of
this particular survey is that investors are now wary about the idea of using
the stock market as a way to invest for retirement. Instead, the survey found
that the vast majority of individual investors continue to pump unprecedented
amounts of money into what many believe is the most overvalued asset class on
the planet – government bonds. One result of the 10-plus year secular bear
market in stocks is the gradual erosion of the public’s interest and confidence
in stocks as an investment. Of course this HAS happened before. Anyone recall
the 1982 cover of Time magazine with the title “The Death of Equities?”
Although the cyclical bull market that began in March 2009 remains intact, the
public has been pulling money out of the market on a monthly basis. Since
January 2008, the Investment Company Institute reports that a total of $244
billion has been withdrawn from US equity funds. Yet at the same time, a total
of more than $589 billion has poured into US bond mutual funds, which is an
unparalleled amount. It appears that the "Flash Crash" may have been
the straw that broke the camel’s back. For example, in the 11 weeks prior to
May 6th the public pumped a strong $26.6 billion into equity mutual funds. This
is hardly surprising since during that time the market was rising steadily and
had gained more than 70% in the past 12 months. However, in the 16 weeks since
the "Flash Crash," investors have been running scared. In fact,
Investment Company Institute reports that the public has pulled money out of US
equity funds each and every week since, with cumulative withdrawals now
totaling $55.9 billion. Thus, it would appear that the market’s recent
volatility has caused the investing public to lose confidence in the market.
The AP/CNBC poll found that 61% of those surveyed felt the volatility has made
them less confident about buying and selling stocks. There is also a widespread
perception is that the market is rigged or unfair to the little guy. Nearly 90%
of the survey respondents whose portfolios are less than $50,000 said the
market is unfair to small investors. In addition, the public doesn’t seem to have
much faith in the administration to fix the situation in the market. The poll
found that just 8% expressed strong confidence in federal regulators while 50%
expressed little-to-no confidence in those tasked with overseeing the markets.
Does this mean it is time to give up on the stock market as an investment
vehicle? We would respond with a resounding “no!” The trick is to understand
that the game has changed. After an 18-year bull market, the tide has turned.
As such, investors actually have to do something besides putting money into any
old mutual fund and closing their eyes. Disclosure: No positions’ [Economists
Herald New Great Depression The world is
currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression,
according to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others
now forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.) ,
and my position and that of demographer
Dent (This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market
in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in
a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national
decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the
wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and
disgorgement imposed. Krugman:
It's All Downhill From Here Cullen Roche Love
him or hate him Paul Krugman has been awfully right with regards to the macro
picture in the last few years. He’s one of the rare economists who had the
foresight to see the housing bubble and the likelihood of economic downturn
that would result from it. Krugman recently caused a stir when he said the US
economy was headed for the third depression. He isn’t back down from that outlook:
I’ve had a couple of conversations
lately with people who follow politics and public affairs, but aren’t that
close to the economic discussion — and I’ve discovered that there are two
comforting delusions still out there.
Delusion #1 is that we’re on the road
to recovery, just more slowly than we’d like; to be fair, the White House keeps
saying this.
But it’s not at all true. GDP is
growing below potential; employment, even if you focus just on private
employment, is growing more slowly than the working-age population. If you ask
how long it will take us to return to, say, 5 percent unemployment on the
current track, the answer is forever.
Delusion #2 is the belief that the
stimulus may yet do the trick, because there are still substantial funds
unspent. I tried to deal with this last year. The level of GDP depends not on
total funds spent, but on the rate at which funds are being spent, which has
already peaked; GDP growth on the rate of change in the rate at which funds are
being spent, which peaked last year. It’s all downhill from here.
Harry
Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012). ]
Handcuffs
For Wall Street, Not Happy Talk Zach Carter | The fraud allegations that have emerged over the past year are not
restricted to a few bad apples at shady companies — they involve some of the
largest players in global finance.
Hatzius:
The Risks Are Still to the Downside
Drudgereport: 'Tea party' favorites lead in
NH, Delaware...
Establishment Freaks...
Upsets...
RESULTS...
WIRE...
Doomsday warnings of US
apocalypse gain ground...
US poverty on track
to post record gain under Obama...
Last minute aid helps city
dodge default...
REPUBLICAN ACCUSES WHITE
HOUSE OF 'CLASS WARFARE'...
Paul says GOP shares blame
for deficits...
Kerry flip-flops on tax
cuts...
Muslims protest Quran-burning
plan...
Florida pastor calls it
off...
Christians rip pages from
Muslim holy book in front of White House...
Man ignites Quran near Ground
Zero...
VIDEO...
Mosque opponents, supporters
face off in downtown NYC...
OBAMA: 'We are not
and never will be at war with Islam'...
Finance
groups: Long transition to ease new bank rules (Washington Post) [ Basel’s
all the rage … Riiiiight!
Bonkers for Basel, the thing in rally vogue this day … but, not Basil as in Basil Rathbone of super
sleuth Sherlock Holmes film fame who’d make short shrift of this fraudulent
wall street contagion that has swept over Europe in a manner to rightfully earn
the moniker ‘eventual black Friday plague’ … and then there’s the ‘higher oil
price’ part of the suckers’ rally. We can certainly expect Rosanne Rosanna
Danna formerly of SNL fame, as night follows the day, to chime in with a
reminder as her mama always used to say, ‘it’s always something’ … but
unfortunately, that somethin’ is not reality.
YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]:
‘Broad-based buying on the back of Basel III boosted stocks to their fourth
straight gain, or seventh advance in eight sessions. Still, participation
remained unimpressive ... ‘ AP Business
Highlights ‘… Banks
get years to adjust to new global rules
BASEL, Switzerland (AP) -- Bankers and analysts said new global rules
could mean less money available to lend to businesses and consumers, but
praised a decision to leave plenty of time -- until 2019 -- before the
financial stability requirements come into full force ...’ ]Critics
caution, however, that the requirements adopted by the Basel Committee on
Banking Supervision fall short of what's needed to prevent another financial
crisis.
Cuba
to cut 500,000 workers, reform salaries (Washington Post) [ Boy, when
Castro said communism wasn’t working for them anymore, he wasn’t kidding! No
gloating for defacto bankrupt, pervasively corrupt america which is a far cry
from capitalism and but a whisper from collapse itself.]
Banks
miss TARP payments (Washington Post) [ Sounds like a plan! … Bank Failure Friday Continues at Seeking
Alpha ‘…Bank Failure Friday continues with the total number of
failures for 2010 now up to 119 on the way to 150 to 200, as the third quarter
total ended September 10th at 33. During “The Great Credit Crunch” the FDIC
only closed 25 banks during all of 2008. In 2009 the FDIC picked up the pace
with 140 bank failures with a peak of 50 in the third quarter of 2009. So far
in 2010 the FDIC closed 41 banks in the first quarter, another 45 in the second
quarter, and so far 33 for the third quarter. With 119 bank failures so far in
2010 the total for “The Great Credit Crunch” is up to 284 continuing its path
to my predicted 500 to 800 by the end of 2012 into 2013 … (see rest of article
infra)]
Doomsday
warnings of US apocalypse gain ground AFP | Economists peddling dire warnings that the world’s
number one economy is on the brink of collapse.
A subtler tack to fight Afghan corruption?
(Washington
Post) [ How about a not so subtler tack
to fight corruption starting right here in the u.s. of a. where corruption and
crime are pervasive and in fact, at the root of the Afghanistan problems, from
american reinvigorated heroin trade to bribery attendant thereto to killing
civilians, etc.. Defacto Bankrupt, Meaningfully Lawless,
War Criminal Nation america, the leader of nations … in crime:
Though having but 5% of the world’s population, america can
boast 76% of the world’s serial killers, followed by Europe with England/UK
then Germany leading the way for the eu [excerpt, 6 minute video, Serial
Killers: Real Life Hannibal Lechters http://www.albertpeia.com/realifeamericaserialkillers.mpg (as is consistent with crime generally,
see infra)]. Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive
(defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of
the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern
emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed
employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in
this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense
( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
) ]:
Rank |
|||
# 1
|
11,877,218 |
|
|
# 2
|
6,523,706 |
|
|
# 3
|
6,507,394 |
|
… ]
Bank Failure Friday Continues at Seeking
Alpha ‘…Bank Failure Friday continues with the total number of
failures for 2010 now up to 119 on the way to 150 to 200, as the third quarter
total ended September 10th at 33. During “The Great Credit Crunch” the FDIC
only closed 25 banks during all of 2008. In 2009 the FDIC picked up the pace
with 140 bank failures with a peak of 50 in the third quarter of 2009. So far
in 2010 the FDIC closed 41 banks in the first quarter, another 45 in the second
quarter, and so far 33 for the third quarter. With 119 bank failures so far in
2010 the total for “The Great Credit Crunch” is up to 284 continuing its path
to my predicted 500 to 800 by the end of 2012 into 2013.
The
failed bank was publicly-traded Horizon Bank (HZNB.OB), which had huge
overexposures to C&D and CRE loans with risk ratios of 358% and 1769%
versus the ignored regulatory guidelines of 100% and 300% of risk-based
capital. The commitment pipeline of commercial real estate loans was 99% funded
as “extend and pretend” caused this failure. The consolidator bank has been
used before by the FDIC; Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK) which has a HOLD rating according to
ValuEngine.
Here
are some statistics from the FDIC for the Second Quarter 2010: There were 45
bank failures in the second quarter, and we ended the quarter with the number
of FDIC-insured financial institutions declining to 7,893, of which 1306 are
publicly-traded.
·
1172 of all community banks (14.8%) are overexposed to Construction &
Development Loans.
·
1432 or 18.1% are overexposed to Nonfarm / Nonresidential real estate loans.
·
2504 or 31.7% are thus overexposed to Commercial Real Estate loans.
·
1317 or 16.7% have a real estate loan pipeline that’s 100% funded.
·
2622 or 33.2% have a pipeline that’s between 80% and 100% funded.
·
3939 of 49.9% of all banks have a pipeline that’s 80% or more funded. So
half the community banks in America remain overleveraged to Commercial Real
Estate and the possible losses remain about $1.5 trillion.
Publicly-Traded
Banks:
·
293 of the 1306 publicly-traded banks are overexposed to C&D loans
·
394 are overexposed to Nonfarm / Nonresidential real estate loans.
·
687 or 52.6% of the publicly-traded banks are thus overexposed to Commercial
Real Estate loans. We publish this list as the ValuEngine List of Problem
Banks.
·
234 publicly-traded banks have a real estate loan portfolio that’s 100% funded.
·
463 have a real estate loan portfolio between 80% and 100% funded.
·
697 thus have significant real estate loan pipeline stress.
Problem
Banks at the end of the Second Quarter versus the First Quarter:
·
Given
the waves of bank failures the total assets among the 686 Publicly-Traded
Problem Banks declined to $135.9 billion from $164.7 billion in the first
quarter. C&D loans declined to $12.7 billion from $16.4 billion with a CRE
loan pipeline steady at 78.1% versus 78.0%.
·
Assets
among the 91 Deadbeat Banks, (those in arrears on making TARP dividend
payments), totals $99.9 billion with C&D loans at $10.9 billion and a CRE
pipeline of 80.9%.
·
Assets
among failed publicly-traded banks increased to $122.5 billion from $116.7
billion in the first quarter. C&D loans increased to $22.3 billion from
$21.5 billion. The CRE loan pipeline increased a tick to 90.4% from 90.3%.
Assets among banks with a CRE pipeline
of 80% or more funded increased to $3.84 trillion including $121.3 billion in
C&D loans. The average pipeline for 3939 banks is 92.0%. Among this list
are four big banks that will likely see waves of write-offs in upcoming
quarters.
·
JP
Morgan Chase (JPM)
with $1.72 trillion in assets has a pipeline of 80%.
·
SunTrust
Banks (STI) has $160.5 billion in assets with an 83%
pipeline.
·
BB&T
Corp (BBT) has $149.2 billion in assets with an 84%
pipeline.
·
Fifth
Third Bank (FITB) has
100.0 billion in assets with an 84% pipeline.
Disclosure: No positions’
U.S. Trade Deficit Still Growing
Defacto Bankrupt, Meaningfully Lawless, War Criminal Nation
america, the leader of nations … in crime:
Though having but 5% of the world’s population, america can
boast 76% of the world’s serial killers, followed by Europe with England/UK
then Germany leading the way for the eu [excerpt, 6 minute video, Serial
Killers: Real Life Hannibal Lechters http://www.albertpeia.com/realifeamericaserialkillers.mpg (as is consistent with crime generally,
see infra)]. Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive
(defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of
the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern
emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed
employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in
this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense
( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
) ]:
Rank |
|||
# 1
|
11,877,218 |
|
|
# 2
|
6,523,706 |
|
|
# 3
|
6,507,394 |
|
|
# 4
|
3,771,850 |
|
|
# 5
|
2,952,370 |
|
|
# 6
|
2,853,739 |
|
|
# 7
|
2,683,849 |
|
|
# 8
|
2,516,918 |
|
|
# 9
|
2,231,550 |
|
|
# 10
|
1,764,630 |
|
|
# 11
|
1,543,220 |
|
|
# 12
|
1,516,029 |
|
|
# 13
|
1,422,863 |
|
|
# 14
|
1,404,229 |
|
|
# 15
|
1,340,529 |
|
|
# 16
|
1,234,784 |
|
|
# 17
|
973,548 |
|
|
# 18
|
923,271 |
|
|
# 19
|
593,997 |
|
|
# 20
|
565,108 |
|
|
# 21
|
553,594 |
|
|
# 22
|
552,411 |
|
|
# 23
|
520,194 |
|
|
# 24
|
491,026 |
|
|
# 25
|
427,230 |
|
|
# 26
|
420,782 |
|
|
# 27
|
372,341 |
|
|
# 28
|
351,153 |
|
|
# 29
|
330,071 |
|
|
# 30
|
312,204 |
|
|
# 31
|
307,631 |
|
|
# 32
|
286,482 |
|
|
# 33
|
283,702 |
|
|
# 34
|
236,165 |
|
|
# 35
|
218,360 |
|
|
# 36
|
214,192 |
|
|
# 37
|
167,173 |
|
|
# 38
|
Peru: |
161,621 |
|
# 39
|
148,915 |
|
|
# 40
|
134,010 |
|
|
# 41
|
132,867 |
|
|
# 42
|
130,375 |
|
|
# 43
|
107,373 |
|
|
# 44
|
102,783 |
|
|
# 45
|
101,853 |
|
|
# 46
|
92,646 |
|
|
# 47
|
85,776 |
|
|
# 48
|
84,599 |
|
|
# 49
|
81,697 |
|
|
# 50
|
81,274 |
|
|
# 51
|
80,592 |
|
|
# 52
|
60,242 |
|
|
# 53
|
59,426 |
|
|
# 54
|
57,799 |
|
|
# 55
|
49,329 |
|
|
# 56
|
44,762 |
|
|
# 57
|
40,263 |
|
|
# 58
|
39,188 |
|
|
# 59
|
38,620 |
|
|
# 60
|
36,302 |
|
|
# 61
|
35,943 |
|
|
# 62
|
31,138 |
|
|
# 63
|
26,046 |
|
|
# 64
|
24,066 |
|
|
# 65
|
21,058 |
|
|
# 66
|
19,814 |
|
|
# 67
|
19,350 |
|
|
# 68
|
18,301 |
|
|
# 69
|
17,023 |
|
|
# 70
|
15,520 |
|
|
# 71
|
15,029 |
|
|
# 72
|
13,292 |
|
|
# 73
|
13,023 |
|
|
# 74
|
12,048 |
|
|
# 75
|
Oman: |
11,782 |
|
# 76
|
8,872 |
|
|
# 77
|
7,857 |
|
|
# 78
|
7,026 |
|
|
# 79
|
5,838 |
|
|
# 80
|
5,303 |
|
|
# 81
|
4,297 |
|
|
# 82
|
751 |
|
|
|
Total: |
63,531,202 |
|
|
Weighted average: |
774,770.8 |
|
DEFINITION: Note:
Crime statistics are often
better indicators of prevalence of law enforcement and willingness to report crime (I believe, and facts support, crime in
america to be substantially under-reported and under-prosecuted owing to
pervasive corruption, arbitrary enforcement of the law, etc.) than actual
prevalence.
SOURCE: The Eighth United Nations Survey on Crime Trends and
the Operations of Criminal Justice Systems (2002) (United Nations Office on
Drugs and Crime, Centre for International Crime Prevention)
Drudgereport: Doomsday warnings of US
apocalypse gain ground...
US poverty on track
to post record gain under Obama...
Last minute aid helps city
dodge default...
REPUBLICAN ACCUSES WHITE
HOUSE OF 'CLASS WARFARE'...
Paul says GOP shares blame
for deficits...
Kerry flip-flops on tax cuts...
Muslims protest Quran-burning
plan...
Florida pastor calls it
off...
Christians rip pages from
Muslim holy book in front of White House...
Man ignites Quran near Ground
Zero...
VIDEO...
Mosque opponents, supporters
face off in downtown NYC...
OBAMA: 'We are not
and never will be at war with Islam'...
Unemployment
Claims Not as Bullish as They Seem (Why?
Kudrna:‘The Labor Department reported
Thursday morning that new claims for unemployment dropped a seasonally adjusted
27,000 to 451,000. Unexpected bullish news, right? The markets immediately
gapped-up on this information as the bulls found good reason to buy. Unexpected
positive news is almost always met with a bullish move north as it’s rarely
priced in. However, a useful tidbit of information about that shockingly large
drop came out after the gap-up. Bloomberg reported that nine states didn't file
claims data to the Labor Department in Washington because of the Labor Day
holiday earlier this week. California and Virginia estimated their figures and
the U.S. government estimated the other seven. Coincidence in the large drop or
not? We will see when the next revision comes out but usually those revisions
fail to make headlines as we are already focusing on future claims. This has
been a great cover-up method for a long time…’
How Government
Reporting Will Intensify the Inevitable , On Friday September 10, 2010,
12:41 pm EDT ‘Natural
carbonation keeps a champagne bottle under constant pressure. The more you
shake the bottle, the higher the pressure gets and the further the cork will
eventually fly. Figuratively speaking, the government has been shaking the
bottle. Watch out when the cork pops. On August 10, the Associated Press
reported that the Federal Reserve has found a new trick to jumpstart the
economy. Below is the full quote that shows why we probably can't expect
unbiased assessments coming out of Washington, or the Fed's corner: 'The
Federal Reserve policymakers are pondering ways to jumpstart the economic
recovery. The trick: making sure whatever they do or say doesn't rattle Wall
Street.' Some of the recent government statistics have been 'interesting' no
doubt, and we know the administration has spent trillions in an attempt to lift
the economy, but would it go as far as actually fudging statistics? We'll
examine potential cases for 'data spiking' in a moment, but for now we'll take
a look at one of the most popular government statistics, which is misleading to
say the least.
GDP - Like a Flag in the Wind
GDP reports are prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and are a
science all in itself. GDP reports are often revised. The 'advance' estimate is
published at the end of the first month following the close of a quarter. In
addition to the 'advance' estimate, there are first and second revisions called
the 'preliminary' and 'final' estimates. The 'final' estimate is reviewed
annually, usually in July. Once every several years, the BEA reviews all data
back to 1929. On July 30, the BEA lowered Q2 2010 growth from an estimated 2.7%
to 2.4%. The real GDP for all three previous years was revised as well. It was
lowered by 0.2% for 2007, it was lowered by 0.6% for 2008 and it was lowered by
0.4% for 2009 (see chart below)[chart]. In percentage terms, the real GDP for
2007 was revised down from 2.5% growth to 2.3%. The 2008 decrease was lowered
from 1.9% to 2.8%, and 2009 growth was revised up from a 0.1% to a 0.2%
increase. In essence, the BEA proved that the recession was (or is) much deeper
and the alleged recovery much weaker than previously reported. Imagine if you
would have based your 2007 and 2008 investment decisions on GDP reports. But
wait, there is more. On August 27, the BEA lowered the Q2 2010 GDP growth from
2.4% to 1.6%. The financial media, however, applauded the reduction since
the final 1.6 number was still higher than the 1.4% economists expected. Stocks
rallied over 2% that day.
Unemployment Numbers - Not Deserving of Your Trust
Unemployment in August increased from 9.5% to 9.6%, but that's ok. Why?
According to the financial media, the increase of unemployment was due to an
increase in labor force. An estimated 6.6 million students will be graduating
and joining the labor force this year. An increasing labor force is a reality,
not an excuse to rationalize higher unemployment numbers. The real unemployment
rate (U-6) reported by the BLS (but neglected by the financial media) jumped
from 16.5% to 16.7%. Nevertheless, stocks rallied nearly 3% when unemployment
figures were released on September 3rd. According to the BLS, the manufacturing
sector lost 27,000 jobs in August. This, however, contradicts the positive
August ISM manufacturing report, which rose from 55.5% to 56.3%. Here is
the analysis from the Institute for Supply Management: 'A PMI in excess of 42
percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall
economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates growth for the 16th consecutive month in
the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the
13th consecutive month.' If you ask the unemployed, it doesn't feel like the
manufacturing sector is improving.
Changing Rules to Accommodate Growth
Amidst the biggest financial meltdown since the Great Depression, the
administration had to act quickly. The sheer amount of toxic assets overwhelmed
the banking (NYSEArca: KBE - News)
and financial sectors (NYSEArca: XLF - News),
which led to the fall of Lehman Brothers and credit contraction around the
globe (NYSEArca: EFA - News).
It was impossible to eliminate trillions of bad loans or revive the ailing real
estate market (NYSEArca: IYR - News).
It was impossible to prop up faltering sectors like consumer discretionary
(NYSEArca: XLY - News)
and technology (NYSEArca: XLK - News).
In short, it was impossible to change reality. It was, however, possible to
change the prevailing perception and hide the root problems. In fact, it wasn't
just possible; it proved to be fairly easy. The government simply urged the
Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) to change some rules. On April 2,
2009, the FASB changed Rule 157. The ripple effect caused by massive real
estate losses suffered by the 'too big to fail' banks (NYSEArca: IYF
- News),
as well as regional banks (NYSEArca: KRE
- News),
threatened the integrity of the entire system. The 157 Rule change allowed
banks to park all their losses in a bucket called other comprehensive income
(OCI). OCI appears on the balance sheet, but not on the income statement and
thus does not affect earnings. In late 2009 and early 2010, banks exceeded
their earnings expectations - at least on paper - which created the perception
that the economy was recovering. As it turns out, the timing for the Rule 157
change was perfect and coincided with the biggest stock market rally in recent
history. A 50%+ run in the Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI), S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), and
Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) intensified the perception that the economy was on the
mend. Before the accounting rule change and other government efforts, the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter predicted the biggest rally since the October 2007
all-time highs. Via the March 2nd Trend Change Alert, the newsletter advised to
close out previously recommended short positions (some gained 100% and more)
and buy long and leveraged ETFs, many of which gained 50%, 100% or more.
Back to the Future
All was well until April 2010. Prior to the April highs, Mr. Bernanke, Mr.
Geithner, and the President were campaigning for their fair share of credit for
rescuing and reviving the country. Rather than examining and disclosing some of
the government's questionable methods, the media jumped on the bandwagon and
tickled the alleged 'saviors' egos. By doing so, the pressure in the champagne
bottle was increased. More investors bought stocks under the mistaken view the
economy had improved. This increased the pool of stock owners and the pipeline
of sellers. As per the most recent GDP numbers, investors found out that the
state of the economy is worse than previously thought. Furthermore, the
government has lost credibility and some of its associated ability to inflate
stock market confidence. Watch out, once the cork blows! Investors
leaving the market could send prices falling as fast as champagne gushing out
of a bottle. In fact, this exodus probably started already. On April 16,
the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted that: 'The cork seems to have popped.
Reality is setting in. The pieces are in place for a major decline.' Following
the April highs, the ensuing decline erased eight months worth of gains in a
mere 22 trading days. An initial wave of somewhat critical media reports
quickly faded as the stock market stabilized. Sideways trading tends to calm
the nerves and get investors re-engaged before the hammer drops again. What's
the moral of the story? Faulty
government data and trend-following media reports tend to distort the real
picture and postpone and intensify the inevitable.
The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
combines the analysis of various indicators with common sense and
out-of-the-box thinking to formulate a short, mid, and long-term forecast.’
Drudgereport:
Thousands
of Afghans protest Quran-burning plan...
Tennessee
preacher to burn Quran...
Topeka,
Kansas church vows burning...
Protester
plans to burn on Wyoming's Capitol steps...
FLASHBACK:
Muslims Burn Bibles and Destroy Crosses...
Ground Zero imam ignores pastor's two-hour deadline...
12
soldiers face trial after Afghan civilians 'were killed for sport and their
fingers collected as trophies'...
GOV'T
MAKES IT UP: JOBS NUMBERS 'ESTIMATED' FOR WEEK...
'BETTER
THAN EXPECTED'...
Treasuries
Tumble Following Weak 30-Year Sale...
U.S.
drops in competitiveness ( Washington Post ) [ Fourth place for pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america?
I don’t think so; not in their wildest dreams, and there’s a lot of that in
america these days, but little else. Reality says america’s place should be in
the twenties at best. Previous: U.S.
drops in competitiveness
(Washington Post) [ Singapore, Sweden, … ? Don’t make me laugh! From defacto bankrupt, meaningfully lawless
america’s perspective, this fallen ranking was a gift and one must be asking,
what were they smoking (or whose money were they taking?) and is the rest of
the world really that bad off? ] Large
deficits and a weakened financial system make the U.S. less competitive in the
global economy, according to World Economic Forum's new ranking. Sweden
Is A Better Place To Do Business Than The U.S. – [Well, that part is true, but
…]. ‘…Sweden, by contrast, has
“the world’s most transparent and efficient public institutions, with very low
levels of corruption and undue influence.” Which loosely translated from
wonk-speak sounds like, “You’re better off dealing with honest socialists than
crony capitalists.”’ [ True enough, but I still don’t buy it (the rankings),
especially america’s fourth place (as opposed to lower) ranking.]
Yeah! The lack of
prosecutions and teeth therein has led to continued and bolder frauds and a
complicit u.s. government! Stocks
extend gains after drop in jobless claims [ Washington Post ] I was very disappointed to see this headline
without disclaimer. Very disheartening. [ It’s
really quite amazing, and you won’t get this from the ‘money honeys’ or other
mainstream drivel (actually I got this from the CBS news reporter, 1070am
radio, but NOT their business report), the so-called better than expected jobs
report (albeit bad at 451,000 continuing claims) was actually based upon
federal government estimates for those reports that were not submitted owing to
the holiday … and we all know how conservative the u.s. government is in making
estimates, especially in election cycles when desperation abounds … riiiiight!
( Drudgereport: GOV'T
MAKES IT UP: JOBS NUMBERS 'ESTIMATED' FOR WEEK... 'BETTER
THAN EXPECTED'... ) Then
there’s the ‘need more capital’ news from among the strongest players in the
European sector, viz., Germany’s Deutsch Bank, which can only mean,
particularly in light of their adoption of the fraudulent wall street american
mark to anything valuation of worthless paper, still out there in the many (hundreds?)
of trillions. (see infra, ‘…ECB chief economist Jurgen Stark tells German MPs
that the banking system is insolvent. This led to complete shock because the
newspaper headlines from July suggested the opposite. The German policy
establishment is under the illusion that its banking system is sound because it
passed what turned out to be fraudulent stress test…’) Now, if the German
banking system’s insolvent, is there a term for double, triple, quadrupal,
etc., insolvent for what the american banking system must be? One doesn’t need
clairvoyance to know that only bodes ill.
Stocks Cling to Skinny Gains, Can't Shake Banking Concerns
]
The Eerie Implications of Market
Volume and Mutual Fund Flows ‘… Here's a more compelling question: If
two-thirds or more of daily volume is a function of high-frequency trading,
what are the implications for index prices over the long haul? A year has
passed since I posted some charts illustrating the incredible ratio of S&P
500 volume devoted to five financial stocks. Today's game is no doubt different
from last September. It may be about making money, but it probably has little
to do with investing — which may explain a lot about current volume metrics and
mutual fund flows. I'll update these volume charts periodically in the months
ahead.’
Report From Europe: Fall in U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
Cheers Stocks The Mole …
Today is Rosh Hashanah, the jewish New Year, in which it is believed the names
of the righteous are recorded in the book of life, those in the middle ground
are given ten days to repent and become good, while the wicked are deleted from
the book of life. In essence, it is make or break time for the year. One
wonders if we might be entering a similar phase for Ireland with landmark
decisions over the fate of Anglo Irish Bank taken (with the cost of the funeral
to be know in early October) and the funding cliff for Irish banks to refund
some €25bn of maturing debt this month pending (though I feel fears over their
capacity to roll this debt is way overblown)…
Today’s Market Moving Stories
Worth a read: Michael Lewis has a field
day: Beware of Greeks Bearing Bonds (Vanity Fair)
Drudgereport:
GOV'T
MAKES IT UP: JOBS NUMBERS 'ESTIMATED' FOR WEEK...
'BETTER
THAN EXPECTED'...
Treasuries
Tumble Following Weak 30-Year Sale...
600
Lockheed execs take buyout
(Washington Post) [ Talk about
having your fingers on the economic / fiscal pulse of the nation. This should
be a new leading economic indicator which, unlike many of the others, is less
prone to manipulation. All hail, the ‘golden goose’ is dead! Drudgereport: MORGAN STANLEY: U.S. Government Bond
Defaults Inevitable … This is a global depression. This is a
secular bear market in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated
bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically
manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that
the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical
wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior
crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice
is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed,
fined, and disgorgement imposed. ] The move reflects a shift underway as defense
contractors scramble to prepare for Pentagon budget cuts.
U.S.
drops in competitiveness
(Washington Post) [ Singapore, Sweden, … ? Don’t make me laugh! From defacto bankrupt, meaningfully lawless
america’s perspective, this fallen ranking was a gift and one must be asking,
what were they smoking (or whose money were they taking?) and is the rest of
the world really that bad off? ] Large
deficits and a weakened financial system make the U.S. less competitive in the
global economy, according to World Economic Forum's new ranking.
Afghans question U.S.-style capitalism (Washington Post) [ As indeed they should inasmuch as the same is neither capitalism nor american style in the traditional sense referenced here. Defacto bankrupt, in decline, and pervasively corrupt, meaningfully lawless america is a nation unworthy of emulation! ] Kabul Bank became the pride of Afghanistan's financial system by offering the conveniences and thrills of 21st-century capitalism. But the scene outside the bank's headquarters Wednesday was far from that modern ideal.
Fed
sees widespread slowdown of growth (Washington Post) [ Stocks rally anyway
… the ‘miracle of computerized programmed trading’ even if the math and
fundamentals don’t add up …
Bad Math - Why The Bullish Case Doesn't Add Up , On Wednesday September 8, 2010, 3:19 pm
EDT
1+1=2 2+2=4
The simplicity and accuracy of those calculations is undeniable. How about this
equation? Fundamental Weakness + Technical Sell Signals + Overpriced Stocks =
Lower Stock Prices. This calculation also seems to be simple and accurate.
Let's look at some equations that don't make sense.
1+1=3 or Better Earnings = Higher Stock Prices
Earnings season is over. Most companies beat earnings but issued cautious
forecasts. This is particularly true of the tech (NYSEArca: XLK
- News)
and financial sectors (NYSEArca: XLF - News).
By large, profits are still driven by cost-cutting, not organic growth. Retail
sales, which make up about one third of the economy, continued to fall after
the second quarter ended. Additionally, the expectation that taxes will go up
might have moved some companies to pull some of next year's income into this
year. This can't be good for Q3 and Q4 profits. As we've seen in January and
April of 2010, positive earnings reports are not bullish for stocks, especially
if future guidance is weak.
2+2=5 or Weaker than Expected Economy = Rising Stock Prices
On July 30, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) lowered the Q2 Gross Domestic
Product (GD) growth from an estimated 2.7% to 2.4%. On August 27, the Q2 GDP
was lowered further to a jaw-dropping 1.6%. But it didn't stop there. The real
GDP for all three previous years was revised as well. It was lowered by 0.2%
for 2007, it was lowered by 0.6% for 2008, and it was lowered by 0.4% for 2009.
In percentage terms, the real GDP for 2007 was revised down from 2.5% growth to
2.3%. The 2008 decrease was lowered from 1.9% to 2.8% and 2009 growth was
revised up from a 0.1% to a 0.2% increase. In essence, the BEA proved that the
recession was (or is) much deeper than perceived and the alleged recovery much
weaker than previously reported. This comes as no surprise, as the key sector
of the financial debacle - real estate (NYSEArca: IYR
- News)
- remains in a funk. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that the number of vacant
properties, including foreclosures, residences for sale, and vacation homes,
reached 18.9 million. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continue to lose money. Has
anyone ever wondered how banks (NYSEArca: KBE
- News)
can make money on the same kind of loans that pushed Fannie and Freddie to the
brink of ruin? Since bad real estate loans triggered the post 2007 economic
meltdown, how can the economy recover without real estate leading the way?
3+3=7 or Positive Analyst Estimates = Higher Stock Prices
A recent Associated Press article observed that 'analysts only seem to hit the
mark with their estimates in the strongest economic times (2003 - 2006).' Why?
'The problem is that analysts get most of their information from the companies
they cover. Corporate managers have every incentive to stay positive for as
long as they can.' Is that true; as true as 1+1=2? On April 26, the day the
S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) topped at 1,219, the Dow (DJI: ^DJI) at 11,258, the Nasdaq
(Nasdaq: ^IXIC) at 2,535, Bloomberg reported the following: 'U.S. stocks
cheapest since 1990 on analyst estimates.' Contrary to analyst estimates, the
ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter stated that 'the potential exists that Monday's
high marked a significant top.' Since April, the broad market dropped as much
as 17%. In March 2009, with the Dow below 7000 and the S&P below 700,
analysts lowered their earnings forecasts from $113 in April 2008 to $40. On
March 2nd, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter sent out a Trend Change Alert and
recommended to buy long and leveraged long ETFs such as the Direxion Daily
Financial Bull 3X Shares (NYSEArca: FAS
- News)
and Ultra S&P 500 ProShares (NYSEArca: SSO
- News).
If
you care to know, until recently, analysts estimated that earnings for the
S&P 500 will exceed their 2006 all-time high, in 2011. Based on that
assumption, stocks are cheap. How about that for flawed math?
4+4=9 or Technical Sell Signals = Higher Stock Prices
The 200-day moving average (MA) is one of the best-known technical indicators,
as it provides delineation between technically healthy and sick stocks. On May
20, the S&P closed below the 200-day MA for the first time since late 2007.
Every attempt to rally and stay above it has since failed miserably. On July 2,
the 50-day MA for the S&P dropped below its 200-day MA for the first time
since late 2007. The same holds true for mid caps (NYSEArca: MDY
- News),
small caps (NYSEArca: IWM - News)
and nearly all individual sector indexes. For good reason, this is called a
Death Cross. Over the past ten years, the death cross has been accurate 75% of
the time, with a 19.72% average return on six winning trades and 6.95% average
return on two losing trades. [chart] In addition to the Death Cross, there are
two head and shoulders patterns, one in the making for over 10 years, and the
other has the breadth suggestive of a major meltdown (see September ETF Profit
Strategy Newsletter).
5+5=11 or Overvalued Stocks = Higher Prices
As explained above, based on overly optimistic earnings estimates, analysts
believe that stocks are cheap. Rather than basing a future outlook on
estimates, it makes sense to use facts as a foundation for any outlook. Why add
an extra variable to what's already an unpredictable market? Ask Yale Professor
Robert Shiller, who's done extensive research on the subject of valuations, and
he'll tell you stocks are historically overvalued based on the current P/E
ratio. Compare today's P/E ratio with the P/E ratio seen at major market
bottoms, and you'll see that stocks are overvalued by more than 50%. Another gauge
that doesn't lie is dividend yields. A company's dividends are a direct
reflection of cash flow and financial health. The current yield is 2.65% for
the Dow and 2.05% for the S&P. Dividends are close to their all-time
low set in 1999 (we know what happened then). This means that companies are
cash strapped and overvalued. Looking at a long-term chart of dividend yields
plotted against stock prices shows clearly that markets don't bottom until
dividends skyrocket. Just as ice doesn't thaw unless the temperature moves
above 32 degrees, the economy won't thaw and show signs of life unless P/E
ratios drop to, and dividend yields rise to, levels seen at major market
bottoms. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
includes a detailed analysis of four valuation metrics, along with short-term
target ranges for stocks and the ultimate market bottom. Based on simple math
and common sense, the July lows are certainly in danger. But it doesn't stop
there.
Report From Europe: Panic Amongst the PIIGS (Seeking Alpha – The Mole) [ Sounds
far from hunky-dory to me and as the
wall street frauds would have you believe and used as a rallying point this
day. Total b*** s***! ] ‘U.S. stocks fell for the first time in five days
Tuesday, ending the longest streak of gains for the S&P 500 Index since
July, on concern the European debt crisis may worsen and hamper global growth.
Bank of America (BAC) and
Citigroup (C) fell at least 2% as European banks slid on
concern stress tests understated potential losses from sovereign debt.
Meanwhile ConocoPhillips (COP) and Chevron (CVX) slumped more than 1.2% as crude oil fell
the most in a week. But Oracle (ORCL) rallied 5.9%
after naming Mark Hurd, former chief executive officer of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) as president. Today, despite some token
buying by the ECB and a decent Portuguese bond auction, the bond vigilantes
have again been out doing their worst pushing the Irish / German 10 year spread
out to levels not seem since 1988 when the debt GDP ratio was 118% . Indeed
yesterday saw the worst single daily performance by Irish Government
bonds ever in terms of spread widening. Greece is also back in the
crosshairs in response to a downward revision to Q2 Greek GDP to -1.8% from
-1.5% originally, and on news the National Bank of Greece plans to raise Eur2.8
bln of capital. The latter may be especially alarming in the current
environment, but really reflects a desire for extra security and also a cash
hoard to potentially spend on weaker rivals. ATEbank stands prominently in this
respect. (picture)
Today’s Market Moving Stories
The stand-out mover in FX today was GBP, which rallied sharply, largely it
would seem on news that Vodafone (VOD) has sold
its stake in China Mobile and intends to use 70% of the proceeds (Ł4.2bn) to
fund share buybacks. The macros community had started to build GBP shorts in
recent days and this M&A flow prompted a flurry of short-covering, assisted
as well by better than feared Halifax house price data.
Irish Banking
According to the Irish Times this morning, the bank’s chairman has stated that
a statement on Anglo should be expected today. Who will make it or what the
nature of the announcement will be is not evident, but keep eyes peeled around
4pm. Recent media reports have indicated strongly that an orderly wind down of
the bank over 10-15yrs is the new preferred option. But what the markets are
really looking for is an update on the total FINAL bottom line kitchen sink
cost of the bailout and whether its closer to Eur 25bn or S&P’s recent
& much criticized Eur 35bn figure. UPDATE – SEE VERY BOTTOM OF THIS POST.
Bloomberg reports that private equity heavyweight J.C. Flowers and three other
bidders for Ireland’s EBS Building Society may buy and merge several lenders to
create a new competitor to the country’s biggest banks, two people familiar
with the situation said. J.C. Flowers., the U.S. buyout firm, Dublin-based
Cardinal Asset Management, backed by U.S. private equity firm Carlyle Group,
and Doughty Hanson & Co. are vying with Irish Life & Permanent Plc (ILPMF.PK) to take control of EBS, said the
people who declined to be identified. Each of the bidders said in talks that
they plan to merge EBS, the country’s biggest customer-owned lender, with other
building societies. That would create a new rival to Bank of Ireland Plc (IRE) and Allied Irish Banks Plc (AIB), the country’s biggest lenders. EBS and
the National Treasury Management Agency, which is overseeing the sale, will
probably select a preferred bidder or two short-listed bidders next week,
according to one of the people.
Japan
Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said he is prepared to take “bold”
action on currencies, including intervention in foreign-exchange markets, after
the yen reached a 15-year high against the dollar. “We will take bold action if
necessary and naturally that can include intervention,” Noda told lawmakers in
parliament today. “We have to use every option available as a strong yen is
likely to have a severe impact on companies.” The yen rose to 83.52 per dollar
yesterday, the highest level since June 1995, as concerns about weakening
growth in the U.S. and Europe bolstered the currency’s appeal as a refuge.
UK Outlook
A U.K. index of hiring for permanent jobs in August showed the slowest growth
pace in 10 months, KPMG LLP and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation
said. The gauge of full-time job placements dropped to 56.3 from 60.2 in July,
the groups said in an e-mailed report today in London. That’s the slowest pace
since October. Readings above 50 indicate an increase in hiring. The U.K. is
bracing itself for a period of austerity as Prime Minister David Cameron
pledges to reduce the country’s record budget deficit. U.K. shop price
inflation accelerated in August as the price of food rose at the quickest
annual pace in over a year, a survey showed Tuesday. Total shop price inflation
was 1.7% on the year in August and 0.1% on the month, compared with a 1.5% annual
rate and 0.1% monthly decline in prices in July, the monthly survey by the
British Retail Consortium showed. That was due to a more-than-one percentage
point rise in the cost of food. Food prices were 3.8% higher in August than a
year earlier, while food prices rose 0.2% from July. And July’s UK industrial
production figures suggest that the manufacturing sector continues to enjoy
steady, if unspectacular, growth. The 0.3% rise in manufacturing output was the
third such gain in a row and pushed the yoy rate of output growth up to a new
cycle high of 4.9%. Overall industrial production saw a similar monthly gain.
For now, then, the output data are defying the rather gloomier tone of some of
the recent industrial surveys, such as last week’s CIPS report on manufacturing.
But it is worth remembering that the surveys normally lead the hard data by a
few months, so it would be no surprise if output growth were to start to weaken
over the next few months. And even if output posts similar increases in August
and September, industry won’t make as strong a contribution to GDP growth in Q3
as it did in Q2. Overall, UK industry is still doing pretty well, but it may
not last too much longer. (picture)
Company / Equity News
And
finally UPDATE
– Text of announcement on Anglo Irish
The Minister for Finance today briefed his Government colleagues on the
strategic options for the future of Anglo Irish Bank. The Minister conveyed to
the Government the views of the Board of Anglo Irish Bank, the Central Bank,
the National Treasury Management Agency, the Department of Finance, the EU
Commission and his own assessment of the position.The Government decided that
Anglo Irish Bank will be split into a Funding Bank and an Asset Recovery Bank.
Anglo Irish Bank has not expanded its loan book since it was nationalised in
early 2009 and this will remain the case. It is intended that in due course the
Recovery Bank will be sold in whole or in part or that its assets will be run
off over a period of time. The guaranteed position of depositors will be
unchanged by the new arrangements and no action is required of them as a result
of today’s announcement. The depositors will become customers of the Funding
Bank which will be fully capitalized and continue as a regulated bank. In order
to restore the reputation of the Irish Financial System it is essential to
bring finality to the problem of Anglo Irish Bank – our most distressed
institution. The Government’s primary objective in dealing with Anglo Irish Bank
has been to minimise the cost of this distressed bank to the Irish taxpayer.
The Board of Anglo Irish Bank submitted its preferred option to the Minister
and to the European Commission at the end of May for consideration under State
Aid rules. The board’s plan envisaged splitting the bank into an asset
management company and a new good bank. The asset management company would have
managed out over time the bank’s lower quality assets remaining after the
transfers to NAMA. The new good bank would have managed the remaining share of
the loan book, retained the bank’s deposit funding and sought new lending
opportunities to grow the bank. The Minister acknowledges the good faith and
hard work of the board in producing a credible proposal for the future of the bank.
However, the Government has concluded that this plan in its current form does
not now provide the most viable and sustainable solution to ensure the
continued stability of the Irish banking system.
Resolution Proposal
In these circumstances, the Government has decided to opt for a variation of
the board’s restructuring proposal. The Government’s decision does not affect
existing guarantee arrangements. Under the restructuring plan, the Funding Bank
will be a Government-backed/guaranteed specialist deposit bank which will
contain the bank’s deposit book. It will be a stand-alone, regulated bank,
completely separated from Anglo’s loan assets and it will be owned directly by
the Minister for Finance. This bank will not engage in any lending, but will
provide a secure home for Anglo’s depositors and any new customers who wish to
deposit their funds with it. Depositors with the Funding Bank will be
completely insulated from the future performance of the rest of the current
Anglo Irish Bank loan book. The Asset Recovery Bank will also be a licensed
regulated bank. Its dedicated focus will be on the work-out over a period of
time of the assets not being transferred to NAMA in a manner which maximises
the return to the taxpayer.
Costs
The Government believes that it is essential to identify, with as much
certainty as possible, the final cost for the restructuring and resolution of
the bank. This will underpin international financial confidence in Ireland.
Accordingly, the Central Bank will determine the appropriate levels of capital
needed in both institutions. Its decision will be announced by October.
EU Commission
The Department of Finance has conducted intensive discussions with the EU
Commission in recent weeks about the future of Anglo Irish Bank. The Minister
for Finance met Commissioner Almunia last Monday to discuss the issue. A formal
detailed plan is being prepared for submission to the Commission for approval.
The Minister said: “Today’s decision by the Government will provide certainty
about the future of Anglo Irish Bank. Resolution of this, our most distressed
institution, is essential to the promotion of confidence and stability in our
financial system.”
8th September 2010
ENDS
Brian Meenan
Press Office
PH: 6045875
email: [email protected]
‘
This is what a depression is all about — an economy that 33 months after
a recession begins, with zero policy rates, a stuffed central bank sheet, and a
10% deficit-to-GDP ratio, is still in need of government help for its
sustenance.
Beige Book Picture Shows Growth Slowing, Stocks Down From Highs
Fidel Castro says Cuban model doesn't work (AP) Fidel Castro
told a visiting American journalist that Cuba's communist economic model
doesn't work.
Drudgereport: BLIAR BUSTED: Former UK PM's autobiography includes
dialogue from meeting with 'Queen' -- taken from fiction movie! Developing...
REV:
THE BURNING WILL PROCEED...
'Meant
to Be a Warning'...
Vatican:
'Outrageous'...
NYPD:
'Dangerous'...
Holder:
'Idiotic'...
Clinton:
'Disgraceful'...
Palin:
'Unnecessary provocation'...
FBI:
Retaliation 'Likely'...
Petraeus
Speaks Out on Quran Burning...
Endangers
Troops...
Pastor
Says Church Not Deterred...
Hartford
City Council meetings to begin with Muslim prayers...
2
SOLDIERS KILLED IN IRAQ, 9 WOUNDED
ADDICTED
TO STIMULUS: $50,000,000,000 MORE
Dems wary
of WH's huge new spending plan...
Obama
takes aim at Boehner... 'They talk about me like a dog'… [ If the shoe fits ... President
Obama calls African-Americans a ‘mongrel people’ President Obama waded into
the national race debate in an unlikely setting and with an unusual choice of
words: telling daytime talk show hosts that African-Americans are “sort of a
mongrel people.” ]
'They talk about me like a dog'...
FLASHBACK: President-Elect Obama: Mutt 'Like Me'...
'Even
liberal elites concede that Obama's presidency is crumbling'...
BARONE:
Sinking with Obama, Democrats plan political triage...
Muslims
Protest Plans to Burn Quran...
'Death
to America'...
Fears
rise as EU nations aim to raise borrowing...
Roubini:
More than 400 US Banks Will Fail...
'COMBAT
OVER': US TROOPS BATTLE IN BAGHDAD...
Why the Furious Bear Will Come Back - , On Tuesday September 7, 2010, 4:34
pm ‘The Top Ten List has become
a staple of David Letterman's Late Show. We don't quite have the space to
discuss ten reasons why the bear market isn't over (if we did, we'd probably
put you to sleep), but we'll take a crack at a Top Five List. Without further
ado, here it is:
#1: Forget About Earnings
Using
past earnings numbers to project future performance is like basing your
Roulette bet on the numbers that won previously… [chart]
#2: Budget Deficits
The
2011 U.S. deficit projection for 2011 was raised from $1.2 trillion to $1.4
trillion...
#3: Banks - Nothing but
Fluff
…Fundamentally,
however, nothing had changed… 'The house of cards was much bigger and started
to stretch beyond Wall Street…The government postponed the collapse of the
'whole deck' thus far. As of recent, however, some disturbing information has
surfaced. Bank of America admitted to hiding bad assets and Goldman's 82%
profit drop shows that the days of fat trading profits - such as seen in Q3 and
Q4 2009 and Q1 2010 - are over… It doesn't take an economist to know that
taking money from your savings account and transferring it to your checking
account can't be counted as income.
#4 Real Estate
In
late July, the market allegedly rallied because new home sales jumped 24% to
330,000 units in June. We feel the urge to put this number into perspective.
May sales were revised from an original 300,000 units to 267,000 units - this
is an all-time low. Bouncing off from the lowest level on record, new home
sales did indeed increase 24%. Is that reason to celebrate though? Chances are
the 330,000 will be revised lower in the future. Regardless, 330,000 homes sold
pales in comparison to the 1.4 million homes sold in 2005.The U.S. Census
Bureau reported that the number of vacant properties, including foreclosures,
residences for sale and vacation homes, reached 18.9 million. It shouldn't be
too long before those bleak fundamentals are reflected in the performance of
real estate ETFs like the iShares DJ US Real Estate ETF (NYSEArca: IYR
- News)
and SPDR DJ REIT ETF (NYSEArca: RWR - News).
..
#5: Consumer Confidence
During
periods of economic expanse the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index
has averaged a reading above 100. Recessions average a reading of 71. The
current confidence reading is at a dismal 50.4. The chart below paints this sad
picture. [chart] Consumer spending is said to make up about three quarters of
the economy. How can the economy recover without participation by the consumer?
It can't. That doesn't mean stocks can't rally temporarily. Such a disconnect
between the economy and Wall Street's dream world tends to be short-lived.
Sentiment Confusion
…
More importantly though, the optimism surrounding the April highs is indicative
of a major market top, a top that implies a decline much deeper than the 20%
we've seen thus far. This conclusion is certainly supported by the
above-mentioned Top Five list and many other indicators…
To
consumer advocates, antitrust enforcement lacking (Washington
Post) [ Unfortunately, at least for those who still care, america’s long past
the glory days of the trust-busters. In fact, america’s long past the days of
any meaningful law at all. See infra, RICO Summary to FBI Under Penalty of
Perjury, which includes how sam alito as u.s. attorney parleyed cover-up and
obstruction of justice et als into fed.ct.appeals and u.s.supreme court
lifetime appointments. The corruption’s incredible but very real. ] The
Justice Department's antitrust division has yet to exercise its signature
power: to bring a case against a corporate titan suspected of abusing its
dominance.
Pearlstein:
The bleak truth about unemployment (Washington Post) [ When I saw this
headline I felt certain that Mr. Pearlstein would be discussing the reality that
the real unemployment rate exceeds 20% with that ‘stopped looking’ fudge factor
removed as merely a convenient subterfuge. But, alas and lamentably, I was
wrong. To be sure, Mr. Pearstein’s topic is important and probably more
optimistic than anyone deserves to be in light of some grim realities that most
dare not mention with the defacto bankrupt nation just barely surviving on that
wonder drug called hopium (see infra, DeCiantis:
‘Students of behavioral finance must have had a field day this past week. In
the wake of a month of dismal economic reports, Wall Street got its risk on
with a few better than expected reports on manufacturing sentiment, home sales,
and employment. Hopium, it appears, is a powerful drug. [ HOPIUM … YEAH! I KIND
OF LIKE THAT METAPHOR WHICH RINGS TRUE! ] ). As for Mr. Pearlstein’s
‘how to make the american economy competitive again.’, I liken this Gordian knot of a problem to
one for which magic mushrooms, along with hopium, are as far as reality will
permit in terms of even imagining such could possibly be the case. You cannot
unring the bell on the irrevocable structural changes wrought by the greediest,
most corrupt, and, though often wrapped in the flag, treasonous, lawless
elements of american society; governmental, quasi-governmental, and private
business (which included the necessary technology transfers). That’s reality! ]
September: In Like a Lion, Out Like
a Lamb DeCiantis: ‘Students of behavioral
finance must have had a field day this past week. In the wake of a month of
dismal economic reports, Wall Street got its risk on with a few better than
expected reports on manufacturing sentiment, home sales, and employment.
Hopium, it appears, is a powerful drug. [ HOPIUM … YEAH! I KIND OF LIKE THAT
METAPHOR WHICH RINGS TRUE! ]
Economists
spent August cautiously lowering their outlook for the second half of the year
as Obama's "recovery summer" failed to bear fruit,
the Federal Reserve failed at both of its twin mandates (stable prices and full
employment), and bullish analysts failed to convince investors that the market
was ready to climb to fresh highs. As a result, stocks ended the worst August
in nine years with rising calls for stimulus and fears of the dreaded
double-dip.
Then
came September. In like a lion, surging nearly 3% on the first trading day of
the month on the heels of a better-than-expected survey by the Institute for
Supply Management of the manufacturing industry. Representing (statistically
speaking) nearly 30% of the US economy, the number was expected to fall after a
series of similar Fed surveys from around the country indicated that American
heavy industry -- that engine of growth over the last two quarters -- was finally
loosing steam. Instead, it leapfrogged every estimate on The Street to post its
first advance since May. Granted the rise was modest, but the surprise factor
flipped the all-important risk switch and a reinvigorated camp of bulls
poured back into the market, convinced that their creeping suspicions about a
slip back into recession were all just a bad dream.
[chart]
Outside
of a few trading irregularities, the data itself forced
the bears to take pause and reflect on the substance of the report. The
economics team at Goldman Sachs may have summarized it best:
"Without question, the report was
better than expected...[but] the details of the report actually reinforce the
case for further slowing in this sector. As shown in Exhibit 2, the gap between
the indexes for new orders and inventories, an important lead indicator of
movements in the composite index and in industrial production, almost
disappeared in the August report. As recently as May, this gap was a robust
20.1 index points. The clear—if uneven—downward trend in this indicator
actually strengthens the case for a decline in the composite index in coming
months. The bottom line: US manufacturing output may still be expanding, but
the risk that these goods are winding up on the shelf has increased."
More telling, however, was the
dissection by semi-permabear David Rosenberg that helps to put the August
print into context:
In a nutshell, ISM did smash consensus
expectations in August but the composition left much to be desired. The
coincident indicators firmed but the categories that actually lead
manufacturing activity softened across the board.
As we said at the outset, the ISM index
was at complete odds with the regional surveys. Philadelphia, New York,
Milwaukee, Richmond and Kansas City were all down. Dallas and Cincinnati were
up. In the past, when we had a 5-to-2 ratio to the downside, the share of the
time ISM managed to eke out an advance was 4%.
It would be wise to lean against the
market's initial dramatic reaction to this data. The ISM orders/inventories
ratio is a decent leading indicator and it sank to 1.033x from 1.065 in July.
1.278x in Julne and 1.441x in May. The hidden nugget in today's report is that
this ratio has decline to levels not seen since February 2009. And the last
time it fell this fast to this type of level was in the September to December
2007 period (1.03x from 1.30x) when once again, there was tremendous confusion
and intense debate over whether it was a recession/soft patch in the economy
and the bear market/corrective phase in equities.
Suffice it to say that in the past 30
years, with eleven observations, ISM dropped to 47x in the three months after
such a decline in the orders/inventory ratio to such a low level as is the case
today. That is the average, the median, and the mode. The highest ISM reading
three months hence was 51.9, so if past is prescient, today's data was likely a
huge headfake.
[chart] The ISM report also
overshadowed another important data release on construction, but we'll get to
that later. The next feather in the bulls' cap was a pair of data points on
residential real estate -- the sick dog of nearly every major developed economy
in the G8. The first revealed a rise in July pending home sales (5.6%) after a
precipitous drop in May (30%) and a further drop in June (2.6%) as an $8,000 tax credit expired.
Analysts collectively expected a drop of 1%. Needless to say the markets were
pleasantly surprised.
A closer look at the data reveals two
key narratives not captured by the popular media or trading desks. First, it's
important to contextualize the "rise" in pending sales by looking at a
longer time series that tells the same story (this particularl series only goes
back to 2005). The graph below speaks for itself.
Second, the reported data may suffer
from a disease common to many of the economic statistics released every day:
Seasonal Adjustment Disorder (SAD). Given the inherent seasonality of the home
buying cycle (higher during the summer when kids aren't in school, lower in
winter when the weather is less than ideal for moving) economists at the
National Association of Realtors make adjustments
for these factors to make monthly comparisons easier.
However, that can sometimes mask changes in the raw data, as was the case with
the August NAR release. As Rosenberg suggests:
While the increase in pending home
sales is encouraging, we did dig through the data and found that the not
seasonally adjusted numbers (the raw numbers) fell by 7%, with declines across
the country. This makes sense as July is usually a slower month for homebuying
activities.
We wonder if there is a chance that the
seasonal adjustment factors could be overstating the monthly increase given
that we have seen such huge volatility in the housing numbers in the recent
year making the seasonal adjustment process more difficult. Recall that
Standard and Poor’s issued a note about the Case-Shiller home price index
saying that “the turmoil in the housing market in the last few years has
generated unusual movements that are easily mistaken for shifts in the normal
seasonal patterns, resulting in larger seasonal adjustments and misleading
results.
Another data point that drew a lot of
bullish attention was Tuesday's housing release on prices. After a few dismal
years, any news that isn't a decrease is more than welcome by just about
everyone, rich and poor, domestic and international. Tuesday's Case-Shiller
print was no exception, as home prices "jumped"...by a mind-numbing 1%...two
months ago in June... on a rolling three-month basis (i.e. April through
June).....still reflecting the last dying gasp of the home buyers' tax credit.
Again, a little context:
And how the markets rallied.
Friday's bulls, reinvigorated after a
powerful (and low volume) start to the month, launched their
attack on a new front: employment. Long a forgotten weapon in the bulls'
arsenal, private payrolls climbed by a larger-than-expected 67,000 in
August, beating expectations for a 45,000 gain. At that rate, it would only
take a little under 9 years to rehire the 7,000,000 people who lost their jobs
during the recession but have yet to find new work (assuming no increase in
population). Only 7,000 permanent government jobs were shed during the month,
though economists expect that number to rise as state and local governments
face crippling budget deficits. The other 114,000
new claims represent the last major layoff of temporary census workers, who
rejoin an army of job seekers that have collectively become one of America's
most structural economic challenges.
Obviously plenty of reason for the
markets to celebrate.
Now for the bad news.
On the same day as the ISM
Manufacturing survey was released to considerable fanfare, July's construction
spending was released by the Census Bureau and confirmed a worsening
year-over-year decline of nearly 11%. Month over month, spending was down 1% in
July and suggests another downward revision to third quarter GDP.
More from Goldman:
Construction outlays dropped 1% in July
from a level that was revised down a whopping 2.7%. This dismal construction
report flew below the market's radar, as it normally does since it usually
comes out alongside the ISM manufacturing survey. One might dub construction
outlays the Rodney Dangerfield ("I don't get no respect") of US
economic indicators. Of all the data released this week, it has the most direct
bearing on the real GDP "bean count" next to the monthly consumption
report. Hence, since consumption was only modestly better than expected, a case
can be made that third-quarter growth might actually be lower now than we
thought a week ago despite all the upside surprises.
[chart]
Wednesday also revealed that another
source of bullish sentiment in July may have been a little premature: auto sales. After months of steep retail incentives and easy
year-over-year growth comparisons, cash- and credit-strapped
Americans returned to a more cautious consumption path. As the second largest
leveraged purchase in a typical household, auto sales reflected that shift.
Only Chrysler, the runt of the litter, managed to squeak out an
increase in sales in an otherwise sluggish retail environment.
[chart]
Finally, on Friday the latest ISM Non-Manufacturing
survey was released and was every bit as disappointing as everyone expected the
manufacturing survey to be. The index slowed to 51.5% in August from 54.3% in
July and 55.4% in May, and its components were even less rosy. From Econoday:
A new optimism after today's jobs
report -- not so fast. The ISM non-manufacturing report shows broad and
deeper-than-expected slowing. New orders at 52.4 are down more than four points
in August for the slowest rate of month-to-month growth so far this year.
Employment, which in this report includes government workers, is signaling
contraction, at 48.2 for a nearly three point decline for the worst reading
since January. The composite headline index at 51.5 is down exactly three
points for what is also the worst reading since January. Backlog orders are
basically flat, export orders are down, deliveries are showing less delays, and
general business activity is slower. Imports did rise as did raw material
prices.
[chart]
In response, the market cut its morning
gains in half, only to rally into the close to retest the morning highs. What
makes this week's schizophrenic ISM interpretations so dangerous is that the
upside surprise on Wednesday was based on data that captures roughly a third of
the economy, while Friday's non-manufacturing disappointment approximates
activity in roughly two-thirds of the economy. So of course the markets ended
the week up 3%.
Once again, Goldman's analysts try to
walk a fine line between sell-side optimism and buy-side skepticism:
On the whole, it's been a good week for
US economic data...reports on factory activity, pending home sales, and the
labor market have surprised to the high side. In fact, some of these readings
have benefited from positive judgmental adjustments, as factors not readily
apparent in the headline indicator have also been better than expected.
However, this does not mean that the outlook for US economic activity has
improved, except insofar as the better-than-expected news eases market worries
about a "double dip". At least some - perhaps most - of the
improvement ... reflects what Paul Krugman once called, in a much different
context, "The Age of Diminished Expectations". In the current
setting, we note that several prominent forecasters have marked down forecasts
of economic activity and therefore may also have lowered their sights on the
higher frequency indicators.
Interpretive bias is inevitable when
any new data is released. Optimists will quickly find a silver lining in any
dark cloud, and pessimists will pick apart even the most robust reports of
growth and tease out a bearish narrative. Investors should think twice when
these competing forces fall out of balance -- when markets are as unabashedly
bearish as they were in late 2008, or as unapologetically bullish as the were
during the second half of 2009.
If the first few days of September are
any indication of how the month will unfold, we may be back on the perma-bull
track. When disappointing data is released, investors cheer for more fiscal and
monetary stimulus. When data is surprisingly positive, investors cheer at the
prospect of a sustainable, organic recovery. As we saw in early 2010, this
"heads I win, tails you lose" mentality is particularly vulnerable to
rapid and substantial correction, and a September that entered as a lion may
finish the third quarter as a lamb.
Disclosure:
Long safety,
short risk (no specific stocks mentioned)’
Correlation
and the S&P 500 [ I really think this author was a bit too
diffident in talking about the computerized churn-and-earn scam which eats away
at the real economy , but the discussion highlights at least this immense
problem area ] ‘The immense correlation between the market, and almost all risk
assets on Earth is not a new subject to FMMF readers. [Jun 30, 2009: Bloomberg - Correlation Among Asset Classes
Highest Ever] I beat this dead horse monthly, mostly out of abject
frustration. [Sep 2, 2010: Why Bother with Individual Stocks in the
Perfectly Correlated Market?] I don't have an issue when the market
is up 2-3% or 90% of stocks move in the same direction, it is all these days
the market is up or down 0.7% when it drives a person nuts.
Friday,
for example, every position I had but one was up. As I type this every position
but one is down.
This
correlation madness started to become an issue in 2007 as we were told that
hedgies control 40%(ish) of each day's trading volume. As I said then, since
mutual and pension funds are relatively staid players, the 'fast money' is the
marginal buyer, and 'hot money' in the form of hedge funds - especially of the
quant variety - are the marginal buyer. The problem now is they seem to be the
only buyer as equity fund withdrawals continue on pace as the retail guy floods
into bond funds.
So
we have a market dominated by computers trading to computers, all using related
algo's - happy, happy, joy joy. Now we hear things such as 60-70% of trades
flow through these players... and since EFTs are the weapon of choice,
computerized trading of EFTs have taken over the market. [Jun 29, 2010: Correlations Among Asset Classes Reach Ever
Higher Extremes as HAL9000 Algos Dominate Life] The SPY ETF is now about 9% of ALL volume as of
last check, and we had a time about 7-8 months ago where Citigroup (C), AIG (AIG),
Fannie (FNMA.OB), and Freddie (FMCC.OB) were 40% of all volume. Pathetic.
Frankly,
it makes the market a frustrating and 'less fun' place. The market used to be a
four-dimensional jigsaw puzzle, comprised of fundamental, technical,
psychological, and 'animal spirits.' Now it's just the dumbed down
two-dimensional Etch a Sketch. Shake it at 4 pm every day, because it has no
memory from day to day. Sure you can adjust (in fact you must adjust) if you
plan to stick around, but when everything is a 1:1 correlation, it simply
reduces the market to 'stoopid' and coming in each day, checking your brain at
the door, and staring at the S&P 500 chart trying to guess where it will be
in 3 hours, 3 days, and 3 weeks gets to be boring. [Jul 15, 2010: WSJ - Correlation Soars on S&P 500
Shares]
But
this is the casino market we have built, and I don't see anything
changing anytime soon. The other issue is it makes it so much more difficult to
outperform the market. Surely there are a handful of stock names that still
outperform (or underperform) but with almost everything swaying in the exact
same direction as the market, creating alpha is difficult. Most of the
performance nowadays is not about stocks, but due to calling turns in the greater
market - increasingly hard to position for as you scale in size. Especially
when the majority of the turns are due to binary reactions to economic reports
or Fed announcements - it's simply placing your bets on red and black, not a
stock market.
I've
written about said frustration in the past amongst the "human"
hedgies, [July 8, 2010: Hedge Funds "Frozen in
Headlights" as BiPolar Market with 1:1 Correlation in All Things Not Named
U.S. Treasuries Causes Confusion] and this is taking a toll on the
mutual fund managers as well.
One
of my big beefs with the mutual fund industry is that many players - especially
in the bigger funds - are closed index funds. They all have super cool names
but almost anything in 'large cap value' or 'large cap growth' were hybrid
closet indexers. They basically flip an Exxon (XOM), Intel (INTC), or a Microsoft (MSFT), with a Walmart (WMT), Verizon (VZ), or a Cisco Systems (CSCO) -- change the order, weighting, and
indeed are able to charge a nice fee for doing nothing other than being the
S&P 500 with a small twist. I cannot tell you how many 401k plans I
reviewed for people, where I went to look at the top 10 holdings of the 12-15
mutual fund choices and 90% of them were identical (just in different order in
weightings!). The statistic of 0.99 correlation amongst the S&P 500 and
many of the largest funds is quite remarkable and points to my 'closet index'
beef, but with the mechanics of our new paradigm market, it has taken it to a
whole new level. It also says a lot of people are wasting their money paying
management fees for what is an S&P 500 ETF clone.
That
said, even with the closet index situation that has been growing for a decade+
you used to be able to try to outperform if you plied your trade in small or
medium caps (or international markets), but the HFT + EFT = GLEE environment we
now live in has made that increasingly moot, since most of those stocks now
move in unison as well. If your stock is not in a major EFT it generally sits ignored
with low volume... if it IS in an ETF than it doesnt matter the company
specifics - as long as the algo's are buying (or selling that ETF) as flavor of
the day, every component in that ETF is a winner (or loser)! Stoopid is as
stoopid does in the market with 1st grade logic.
One
gentleman I've admired for many years is Will Danoff at Fidelity Contrafund. [Sep 9, 2008: Will Danoff in Kiplinger Magazine]
His fund has been huge in size for years on end (I'm talking multiples the size
of the biggest hedge funds - Contrafund is now up to $62 BILLION), yet he has
been able to somehow outperform his peer group (and until the past 5 years the
S&P 500) by a wide margin, mostly by being somewhat contrarian. This
despite holding many positions and not being extremely concentrated - a feat I
find quite remarkable since once you start owning 200-250 positions I don't
know how you can beat the market over time. (Contrafund owns 445 positions as of last quarter!) Danoff is highlighted in
this piece, which is why I mention him - he is no dummy.
Via
Bloomberg:
Disclosure:
None’
Obama
defends policies and offers new proposal (Washington Post) [ No you can’t wobama … b*** s*** everyone
again! ‘Yes, we can … NOT!’ That dog don’t hunt anymore wobama. Drudgereport:
Obama
takes aim at Boehner... 'They talk about me like a dog'… [ If the shoe fits, wobama … keep
gearing up Afghanistan … sounds like a plan]... ]Faced with twin challenges of boosting the economy
and saving congressional seats, the president tries to do a little of both on
Labor Day.
Krugman:
It's All Downhill From Here Cullen Roche Love
him or hate him Paul Krugman has been awfully right with regards to the macro
picture in the last few years. He’s one of the rare economists who had the
foresight to see the housing bubble and the likelihood of economic downturn
that would result from it. Krugman recently caused a stir when he said the US
economy was headed for the third depression. He isn’t back down from that outlook:
I’ve had a couple of conversations
lately with people who follow politics and public affairs, but aren’t that close
to the economic discussion — and I’ve discovered that there are two comforting
delusions still out there.
Delusion #1 is that we’re on the road
to recovery, just more slowly than we’d like; to be fair, the White House keeps
saying this.
But it’s not at all true. GDP is
growing below potential; employment, even if you focus just on private
employment, is growing more slowly than the working-age population. If you ask
how long it will take us to return to, say, 5 percent unemployment on the
current track, the answer is forever.
Delusion #2 is the belief that the
stimulus may yet do the trick, because there are still substantial funds
unspent. I tried to deal with this last year. The level of GDP depends not on
total funds spent, but on the rate at which funds are being spent, which has
already peaked; GDP growth on the rate of change in the rate at which funds are
being spent, which peaked last year. It’s all downhill from here.
If you can ignore the schizophrenic
market for just a second it’s hard to reject Krugman’s macro outlook. The
private sector has been running on fumes since the debt bubble burst in 2007.
The government’s extraordinary actions helped bolster the economy, but merely
papered over what was a very weak private sector. As we see the government step
aside it’s difficult to imagine that the weakness at the private sector won’t
again be exposed for what it really is.
Government
Bonds: Can the U.S. Maintain Confidence in Its Debt? Cliff Kule Massive,
unsustainable government debt - it's everywhere. Especially in America. At some
point, will the world begin to lose confidence in America's growing debt? Will
interest rates then skyrocket? Will a Greek-style crisis in U.S. government
bonds then ensue? Is there any way out?
America can
claim its debt problems are not as bad as some countries. But that ignores some
important points:
Is there any
way for America to maintain the confidence?
One way would be for America to become fiscally
prudent, simply stop creating money and debt, let the massive deflationary
forces of credit contraction and consumer de-leveraging run their natural
course. This would cleanse the system of toxic debt. It would also clearly and
immediately cause another Great Depression.
Another way would be for America to simply print more
money, create more debt, blindly following Keynesian economics that brought us
into this mess in the first place. Attempt to "inflate away" the debt
without losing the confidence of investors that buy the U.S. government bonds.
This has been tried many times throughout history with disastrous consequences.
The chart below (courtesy of Economic Edge) shows how
increases in debt are recently giving less and less “umph” to economic GDP
growth to the point now of negative GDP growth. Eric Sprott has produced an
excellent study suggesting that 9 cents of "growth" is coming
with every dollar we go deeper into debt. Bud Conrad has produced
calculations that are equally discouraging. This massive debt-driven money
printing would therefore likely lead some form of hyperinflation in a futile
attempt to stimulate economic growth.
This leaves one other option.... a direction that is
hardly ever considered... a policy tool still waiting to be tried!... America
could return to the gold standard... Why? Because the gold standard system
would back the U.S. dollar by real money, and enforce a responsible discipline
of fiscal and monetary policy that Congress and the Federal Reserve cannot
currently do. In turn this would maintain confidence in America's debt.
“The gold
standard has one tremendous virtue: the quantity of the money supply, under the
gold standard, is independent of the policies of governments and political
parties. This is its advantage. It is a form of protection against spendthrift
governments.” Ludwig von
Mises (1881-1973)
Monetary systems on a gold standard system cannot
increase money supply as needed. Under a gold standard system, paper money is
backed by something of real tangible value. The total amount of gold limits the
total amount of paper money that can be created. New money must be backed by
additional gold. Omnis’ Jim Rickards suggests this possible solution:
a “gold backed currency at a non-deflationary price… sound money leads to sound
growth and the creation of real, not illusory, wealth.”
In 1971, President Nixon simply severed the tie
between gold and U.S. dollars. As he closed the gold “window,” Nixon proclaimed
“We are all Keynesians now” (referring to the Keynesian economic school of
thought where gold has no function). Austrian School economists and Cliff Küle
would like to say – We are not all Keynesians.
Did severing the link between the dollar and gold
work to strengthen confidence in the U.S.? Please consider:
Until the greenback is once again made as good as
gold, many millions of people will persist in believing that the barbarous
relic is still a better bet.
Recently speaking about Goldman Sachs’ problems at
the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, former President Bill
Clinton said,
There is a bigger problem here… too much of our
growth was in finance ever since went off the gold standard.
The dollar “tie” to gold might be “re-tied” just as
simply as it was untied. In a certain respect, America never really went off
the gold standard. The tie between gold and U.S. dollar was simply adjusted to
0%. So, simply adjust it back. What tie would be needed today to restore
America back to the gold standard? Let’s do the simple math.
Official
figures for the total amount of gold reserves held by the U.S. Treasury are
8133.5 tonnes of gold. This gold is owned by all Americans and is held in trust
by the government for the people. Given that 1 metric tonne is 32150.746
ounces, that amounts to:
8133.5 tonnes x 32150.746 ounces/tonne =
261498092.591 ounces
If we look at recent Federal
Reserve data, we note that the total U.S. M1 seasonally adjusted money
supply is at $1712.2 Billion of currency. Therefore if we were to take the
total currency and back it by the total amount of gold, this would give:
$1712.2 billion divided by 261498092.591 = US$6547
per ounce
There you have it – if the U.S. were to devalue the
U.S. dollar, setting gold at 6550 U.S. dollars per ounce of gold, the country
could position to go back on the gold standard. Global confidence in the U.S.
dollar and in America's debt would be maintained. It may be as simple as
finding the right price for the government gold holdings to give
"backing" to every dollar in circulation.
$6550/ounce is approximately the current value
necessary to give "gold backing" to the current level of M1 money
supply. If the U.S. wanted to expand the money supply further to stimulate the
economy, it would need to set a new price for its gold holdings which is even
higher than $6550/ounce or somehow get more gold. The U.S. could then be in a
position to expand money supply as necessary to stimulate growth and able to
extend credit to other nations. This is an essential ingredient to restoring
confidence and keeping the title of reserve currency. After all, a reserve
currency should be able to extend credit to nations in need, not be in need of
credit from other nations.
As Jim Rickards
states, this one-to-one ratio backing of gold with the U.S. dollar
would comfortably support a broader U.S. money supply
on a one-to-one ratio and maintain confidence in the dollar and U.S. sovereign
debt.
Perhaps only then could global confidence in the U.S.
dollar and in U.S. debt be maintained – if not, either a deflationary
depression or a hyperinflationary depression could be in store as confidence
wanes with increasing levels of public debt.
Back to the Future
Nick Barisheff, President and CEO of Bullion
Management Group, emphasizes
that gold is money:
Gold is not and never has been a currency. Gold is
something entirely different and far more valuable. It is money.
Cliff Küle suggests that to maintain confidence in
its debt, America must bring back the gold standard, anchoring the U.S. dollar
back to real money - gold, as Article 1 of the Constitution of the United
States commits it to be.
Disclosure: No positions
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a
Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012).
National / World
Drudgereport: Petraeus
Speaks Out on Quran Burning...
Endangers
Troops...
Pastor
Says Church Not Deterred...
Hartford
City Council meetings to begin with Muslim prayers...
2
SOLDIERS KILLED IN IRAQ, 9 WOUNDED
ADDICTED
TO STIMULUS: $50,000,000,000 MORE
Dems wary
of WH's huge new spending plan...
Obama
takes aim at Boehner... 'They talk about me like a dog'… [ If the shoe fits ... President
Obama calls African-Americans a ‘mongrel people’ President Obama waded into
the national race debate in an unlikely setting and with an unusual choice of
words: telling daytime talk show hosts that African-Americans are “sort of a
mongrel people.” ]
'They talk about me like a dog'...
FLASHBACK: President-Elect Obama: Mutt 'Like Me'...
Muslims
Protest Plans to Burn Quran...
'Death
to America'...
Fears
rise as EU nations aim to raise borrowing...
Roubini:
More than 400 US Banks Will Fail...
'COMBAT
OVER': US TROOPS BATTLE IN BAGHDAD...
Obama
to call for $100B business tax credit (Washington
Post) [ Just in the nick of time … riiiiight! … for the elections … you know,
‘talking points’ though of no economic effect
… and to make america, only slightly more bankrupt ... at this point,
who’s counting? ] Under mounting pressure to intensify his focus on the economy
ahead of the midterm elections, president seeks to boost research and
development
Afghan
bankers' assets frozen (Washington Post) Authorities bar sale of
properties held by principal owners, but freeze excludes Karzai's brother [
Yeah … don’t want to get him too angry … he’s too valuable to the heroin trade
resurrected by america. ].
Small
businesses feel squeezed by Obama policies (Washington Post) [ Well, the
grim reality for them is that they just don’t pony-up those big campaign
dollars like those non-performing corporate welfare recipient conglomerates /
big businesses. The other reality, reiterated again here is that everybody’s on
to the fact that wobama’s great at delivering speeches, albeit teleprompted,
but as we now all know, he doesn’t deliver. It’s rather pathetic to see that old
loser and jingoistic fake war hero fraud, senile, incompetent mccain who never
saw a new war opportunity he didn’t like despite america’s defacto bankruptcy
(a policy the post-election wobama’s promulgated) because of same being given
air time as some sort of wise old sage when he’s really just an old, stale joke
who would have been even worse than wobama but not by much, failed presidencies
both. ]
Mark
Hulbert's Take: What Are the Odds of a September Decline? at Seeking
Alpha (Fri, Sep 3) ‘Some of the work Mark Hulbert does is nothing
more than telling us what the gurus in the universe he follows are thinking
individually and, more frequently, in the aggregate. But of late, he also has
been doing some far more interesting analysis in the “Yale Hirsch” mode – and
the results are not satisfying if you are a bull.
The bullish
case seems to rest on two platforms: (1) August was really bad therefore
September should be good in reaction to that, and (2) “Everyone” now expects
the current crop of politicos to suffer major setbacks in November and, since
the market is a predictive mechanism, investors are positioning themselves
today for what they believe will be wonderful news post-November (like an
extension of the current tax rates and a reduction in pork-barrel spending by
irresponsible pols.)
The Dow
rallied more than 300 points the first two days of September so, making the
usual straight-line assumption, bulls believe that today is the day to get
invested, Hmmm. Let’s examine each of the above platforms in turn.
Quoting Mr.
Hulbert’s conclusions based upon his historical analysis:
I have good news and bad news when
it comes to slicing and dicing the historical data as it pertains to September.
The good news is that it is
possible, by carefully reading the statistical tea leaves, to get advance
insight into whether any given month is likely to do better or worse than
average.
The bad news: Those tea leaves provide no such hope
that this September will be able to beat its historical reputation as being
awful for stocks.
His research shows that since 1896 (the year the Dow
Jones Industrial Average was created,) the Dow has lost an average of 1.15% in September. The average gain for all other months was 0.71%. Worse, a look at the
historical record shows that Septembers did not show a 1.15% decline following
a bad August – they showed a 2.7% decline! Typically, when August is down, as
goes August, so goes September -- only twice as bad as usual.
Worse than that, Hulbert notes, “During each of the
past nine decades... September's rank relative to other months in terms of
performance was never higher than ninth. It was dead last in five of those nine
decades -- including the most recent one.”
He adds a final bit of gasoline to this bonfire by
noting that the CBOE's Volatility Index (VIX) is relatively low going into
September, the month tends to do better. Uh-oh. The VIX at the end of August
was quite a bit higher than 20. (And for those who have followed our comments
on the VXX and VXZ ETFs in the past, we
believe they have now entered an excellent buy area.)
As for the second platform, the market seldom reacts
favorably to the same news twice. I’ve been writing for two years that the
pendulum will swing, that the 2008 election was a rejection of the
guns-and-butter policy of the previous administration and was little different
than the voters’ rejection of President Johnson’s guns and butter policies in
1968 (thrusting Richard Nixon into office with disastrous consequences we hope
are not repeated this time around), and that mid-term elections are almost
always about mitigating the euphoria of the previous presidential election.
This is not news!
The rally of September 1st and 2nd
may have occurred as a result of Johnny-come-latelies reaching the conclusion
Wall Street reached about the mid-term elections weeks or months ago. If that
is the case, I imagine the smart money is rubbing their hands with glee and
using this rally to lay on bigger short positions.
The current rally was ostensibly about the fact that
the Chinese Purchasing Managers Index rose to 51.7 in August from 51.2 in July,
followed by the news that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index improved from 55.5 in
July to 56.3 in August. I don't see it – these incremental numbers are nothing
but decimal dust in the grand scheme of things! Easily manipulated by the
bureaucrats in charge of such numbers, the “improvement” is so small as to be
barely measurable – and to raise not a stir among the media when they are
“revised” from “up 0.5%” to “down 0.1%” or whatever in another month.
The other economic numbers that form the backdrop to
this rally include: Canada’s GDP fell to an annual rate of 2% in the 2nd
quarter, down from 5.8% in Q1; auto sales absolutely plunged in the U.S. and
around the world; there was a continued drop in U.S. construction spending;
there were declining retail sales in Euro nations; and the ADP employment
report indicating that we didn’t just grow jobs at too slow a pace to cover all
the new workers entering the labor force, but we actually lost some 10,000
private sector jobs! Government is still hiring, of course, but we must always
remember: the private sector is income, government is overhead. That doesn’t
mean we don’t need certain government workers – what hellish existence would it
be without fire and police protection, or good teachers to educate our
children? But it is still overhead even if we collectively choose to pay for it
in order to enhance our safety or literacy.
Bottom line: September tends to do worse in years
that August has been bad. August was bad. The news of the mid-term elections is
already old news and will most likely follow the historical path of all
mid-term elections. We will return more to the center. And the good news to
propel the market higher is likely to be short-lived. Clearly, we aren’t out of
the woods yet. If the market is in a news-dominated phase, we are likely in big
trouble.
For our clients we are stressing safety, with inverse
ETF protection from the likes of ProShares Short S&P 500 (SH),
ProShares Short Russell 200 (RWM), ProShares UltraShort Nasdaq (QID)
and ProShares Short MSCI Emerging Markets (EUM). (If the US and Europe
aren’t consuming, who is going to order stuff from the emerging nations? They
will fall if our markets and economies fall…) We are also buying VXX and VXZ
and are keeping our bond positions short and inflation-resistant, as we do with
WIP, TIP,
BWZ,
and MINT. Finally, we own
some special situations in precious metals, energy and agriculture. (See
previous articles for specifics, including this
and this...)
AP Business
Highlights [ Wow! ‘Private
employers hired more workers over the past three months than first thought’ …
Riiiiight! Especially with 2 months to the mid-term elections (time for federal
term limits and the abolition of lifetime appointments for anything owing to
the nation’s defacto bankruptcy), desperation with fake / false data / reports;
and, that negative but better than expected thing as unemployment rate inches
up to 9.6% (the real unemployment rate is approximately 20+% with that ‘stopped
looking’ fudge-factor giving them the false positive). I mean, come on! Private
reports on non-farm payrolls down each week, but suddenly from out of nowhere
defying virtually all economist estimates the ue claims are up, and prior gov’t
reports revised up. This is a great opportunity to sell / take profits!
]Companies add 67K workers, but jobless rate rises WASHINGTON (AP) -- Private employers
hired more workers over the past three months than first thought, a glimmer of
hope for the weak economy ahead of the Labor Day weekend. But the unemployment
rate rose because not enough jobs were created to absorb the growing number of
people looking for work ...’
Stocks Churning in Trading Range: Dave's Daily ‘This will be short. Perhaps the image [old lady (wall street)
churning (scam) butter (stocks)] and title should suffice as a summary of the
week. After all, I indicated "possibly" I might post on Friday. The
current market is a reprise of early July's rally from June's selloff. Now into
September the August lows are reversing. How durable will this be is anyone's
guess. Economic data was greeted with bullish enthusiasm as markets were
oversold after Monday's slump. The unemployment data was just about the same as
previous once you look deeper inside the data. The birth/death model is just an
estimate made out of thin air. Once you view the data ex-that, things look
pretty grim. There are very few players involved this week and perhaps in the
future. It's interesting many major banks are closing their proprietary trading
operations. This removes another important prop to markets as retail investors
have left the scene. Further, for stock mutual funds, the exodus continues for
the 16th straight week. Cash balances at these funds are at historic
lows of 3% as the outflow continues. Curiously, short interest is also at an
all-time low near 4% meaning few for bulls to squeeze. We only have hedge funds
and overseas investors in the game. And, it does seem like a game more than
ever now. Bulls jumped on the oversold conditions on Wednesday as a DeMark 9
was registered on Tuesday for most major market daily charts then. A rally on
that technical condition was no surprise ...’
Important
Manufacturing Indicators Look Weak at Seeking Alpha (Fri, Sep 3)
Consumption
Contraction Approaches 2008 Low at Seeking Alpha (Fri, Sep 3)
Beware
the Big Red Leading Indicator at Seeking Alpha (Fri, Sep 3)
Small
Investors Turns More Bullish (contrarian indicator) at Seeking
Alpha (Fri, Sep 3)
Unemployment
Rate Edges up to 9.6% at TheStreet.com (Fri, Sep 3)
AAII
Sentiment Survey: Bullish Sentiment Improves, But Bearishness Still Dominates
at Seeking Alpha (Fri, Sep 3)
Monthly
Markets Review: Risk Aversion Rises in August as Double Dip Concerns Grow at
Seeking Alpha (Fri, Sep 3) ‘…The ECB keeping rates at a record low
of 1% and zero interest policies in the US and in most western economies
remains bullish for gold as the opportunity cost, the lack of yield, of owning
gold is negligible, especially with inflation having picked up recently in many
economies internationally. Further signs of burgeoning food inflation were seen
in the surge in the price of global meat prices which have risen to 20 year
highs … (chart) September can be the 'cruelest month' for stocks. Conversely,
more years than not, precious metals prices perform well in September and many
analysts reckon this year will not disappoint those owning gold. Given the
uncertain financial and economic outlook, it is important that investors remain
diversified with allocations to cash, short dated government bonds,
international equities, and gold…’
National / World
Drudgereport: UNEMPLOYMENT
JUMPS TO 9.6%...
Economy
LOST 283,000 jobs during 'Recovery
Summer' months...
NPR:
'Recovery Summer' Ends With Economic
Pothole...
Labor
Sec. Declares: 'There are jobs out there'...
TREASURY
HEAD RUSHES BACK FROM VACATION; AIDES SEARCH FOR OTHER JOBS PACKAGE...
120
Days to Go Until Largest Tax Hikes in History...
President
Claims Job Creation; Doesn't Mention Net Job Loss of 54K...
HE
NEEDS A VACATION: OBAMA TO CAMP DAVID...
Taxpayers
to face initial loss on GM IPO; Treasury to sell first shares below
break-even...
David Rosenberg: The U.S. Is Suffering a Japanese-Style
Depression Burrows
‘Presciently bearish David Rosenberg, the chief economist and strategist at
Gluskin Sheff who called the global meltdown back when he was still at Merrill
Lynch, isn't budging from his view that the U.S. is in a depression
-- and a prolonged, Japanese-style one at that. Rosenberg reminded clients on Wednesday that here we are 33
months after the Great Recession began, and yet home prices, gross domestic product, credit outstanding,
organic personal income and employment are all lower
now than they were prior to the onset of the downturn. "We can understand
that this is not exactly cocktail conversation, but this is a Japanese-style
(even worse perhaps) modern-day depression," Rosenberg writes. "It's
not the 1930s because soup lines have been replaced with unemployment insurance
lines -- over 10 million checks and for up to 99 weeks. The poor souls who
endured the bitter 1930s had no such relief." And as for the U.S.'s
vaunted labor flexibility and superior demographics saving it from a Japanese
sort of lost decade or two, well, Rosenberg is having
none of it. "Government policy and the record number of people upside-down
on their mortgage have seriously impaired the flexibility of the labor
market," Rosenberg writes. And the U.S. birth rate has declined for two
consecutive years and is at its lowest level in a century, he notes. Of course,
it's no surprise to buy-and-hold investors that U.S. equities have already
notched a lost decade and then some. Take a look at this 10-year chart of the
S&P 500 ($INX): See full article from DailyFinance: http://srph.it/aZTYr7’
Forced / Distressed /
Underwater pending / foreclosure sales the impetus for short-covering /
suckers’ rally on light and hence, easily manipulated, pre-holiday computerized
trade volume. The government, desperate and defacto bankrupt, is back to their
fake / false data reporting; you know, the kind that spurs the fraudulent wall
street rallies and gets revised by 35% + down later as with GDP just recently,
but the wall street frauds will get their commissions again on the way
down. YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]: ‘…Early participants had little reason to
alter their mood since the initial jobless claims count for the week ended
August 28 came in at 472,000, which is in on par with the 475,000 initial
claims that had been widely expected. The latest tally was also little changed
from the prior week total of 478,000. Continuing claims saw a more substantial
slip as they fell to 4.46 million from 4.48 million. Final nonfarm productivity
readings for the second quarter also offered little surprise. Productivity in
the quarter fell 1.8%, which is in stride with the 1.7% decline that had been
widely forecasted. Unit labor costs for the quarter increased 1.1%, as
expected. Pending home sales for July provided participants with a positive
surprise. They posted a 5.2% monthly increase, which contrasts with the call
for no change from economists polled by Briefing.com. That data overshadowed
news that factory orders for July increased 0.1% instead of 0.3% as had been
widely expected…’ Stocks
rise on economic hopes ahead of payrolls (Reuters) Riiiiight! Sounds like a
plan!
[$$] U.S. Equity ETFs Implode ‘U.S. equity ETFs hemorrhaged assets during
the month of August as investors sought out emerging-market equity and debt
along with fixed-income picks. According to National Stock Exchange data
(nsx.com) released today, U.S. equity ETFs shed nearly $11 billion in assets
last month. Here's something remarkable: One U.S. equity ETF accounted for more
than half of these outflows. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF, arguably the ETF
industry's most iconic fund, saw net outflows totaling more than $6.6 billion
last month. Who were the biggest losers besides SPY? You'll recognize some of
these names: the PowerShares QQQ ETF, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF and the SPDR
DJIA ETF saw net asset outflows of $2 billion, $1.7 billion and $616 million,
respectively. At the other end of the spectrum, the Vanguard MSCI Emerging
Markets ETF and the iShares MSCI-Emerging Markets ETF attracted $1.9 billion
and $1.8 billion, respectively, while the...’
A
year ago I posted a story citing the many reasons why we were
sinking into the deflationary Japanese trap. The primary flaw with the US
response to the crisis was that we never actually confronted the problem at
hand. I have often cited Japanese economists such as Richard Koo who appear to
have a good grasp on the problems in Japan and now in the USA. In this case, I
cited Keiichiro Kobayashi who is now looking most prescient:
We continue to ignore our past and the
warnings from those who have dealt with similar financial crises. Keiichiro
Kobayashi, Senior Fellow at the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and
Industry is the latest economist with an in-depth understanding of Japan, who
says the U.S. and U.K. are making all the same mistakes:
“Bad debt
is the root of the crisis. Fiscal stimulus may help economies for a couple of
years but once the “painkilling” effect wears off, US and European economies
will plunge back into crisis. The crisis won’t be over until the nonperforming
assets are off the balance sheets of US and European banks.”
Read that last paragraph again. These
are scarily accurate comments. While the USA claims to have many economists who
understand the Japan disease and/or the Great Depression the policy actions
we’ve undertaken do not appear to be in line with any understanding of this
history.
What we’ve done over the last few years
is repeat the mistakes of Japan’s past. Instead of confronting the debt
problems head on we have simply tried to fill the output gap with short-term
spending plans and impotent monetary policies. As Kobayashi presciently said,
the “bad debt is the root of the crisis”. I think most mainstream economists, the
administration and the Fed have continually misdiagnosed our problems. They
have attempted to save the banking sector and simply fill in holes with
spending plans that prop up markets, entice more borrowing and largely ignore
the actual cause of the current crisis. Some economists have argued that the
Recovery Act didn’t fail, but that it was too small. This is like saying that
the cancer patient didn’t receive enough percocet. More percocet isn’t the
cure. Targeting the cancer and trying to cut it out is the cure. Yet, we
continue to ignore the lessons of Japan despite having so many “experts” on the
Japanese disease. Therefore, we appear destined to repeat their horrid economic
history assuming our current path isn’t miraculously altered.’
WHO ELSE IS CLUELESS IN THE FINANCIAL SECTOR? [ As I’ve previously said and
reiterate here, the lunatic frauds on wall street are criminally insane and the
only way to stop / deter their debilitating churn and earn among other
computerized frauds is prosecution, jail, fines, and disgorgement! Once again
they’re back to their huge fraudulent gains as seen this reporting period
despite growing problem bank list, worthless paper from the prior fraud in the
(hundreds of) trillions now marked to anything, and look at August results and
worse to come; that money for their commissions / premiums must come from
someplace, viz., the bubble which will deflate / crash. ] Graham Summers
‘Here’s a zinger of a news story:
Barclays
Plc had no idea how big Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s futures-and-options
trading business was when it considered taking over the defunct bank’s derivatives
trades at exchanges in 2008, a Barclays executive said.“Lehman’s
books were in such a mess that I don’t think they knew where they were,” Elizabeth James, a director of
Barclays’s futures business, testified today in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in
Manhattan. James worked on Barclays’s purchase of Lehman’s brokerage during the
2008 financial crisis.-- Bloomberg
I’ve railed for months that the central
issue surrounding the Financial Crisis (derivatives) was not only misunderstood
but completely ignored by the mainstream financial media. Here we are, nearly
two years after Lehman Brothers went bust, and they’re telling us that Lehman
had “no idea” what its options and futures exposure was.
Let’s put this into perspective.
The notional value of the derivatives
market at the time that Lehman went bust was somewhere between $600 trillion
and $1 Quadrillion (1,000 trillions). It was a market of inter-linked paper
contracts entangling virtually every financial institution (including some
non-financials), country (Greece, Italy used derivatives to get into the
European union), and county (Birmingham Alabama is one example) in the world. As
a market it was at least 20 times larger than the world stock market and
somewhere north of 10 times World GDP.
In other words, this was the giant
white elephant in the living room.
And here’s Lehman brothers, one of Wall
Streets’ finest, most respected financial institutions which had been in business
for over 150 years announcing that it had “no idea” “if it had sold $2
billion more options than it had bought, or whether it owned $4 billion more
than it had sold.”
In today’s world of trillion dollar
bailouts, $2-4 billion doesn’t sound like much, so let’s give some perspective
here… in its golden days, Lehman Brother’s market cap was roughly $47 billion.
So you’re talking about bets equal to an amount between five and 10% of its
market cap. Not exactly chump change.
And Lehman had no idea where it was or
how much it really owed.
Mind you, we’re only addressing
Lehman’s options and futures derivatives, we’re completely ignoring its
mortgage backed securities, collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), and other
Level 3 assets. Options and futures are literally the “tip of the iceberg,” the
most visible portion of the behemoth that was Lehman’s off balance sheet
derivative issues. After all, these are regulated securities,
unlike most derivatives.
Now, if the above statement doesn’t
send shivers down your spine, have a look at the notional value of derivatives
exposure at the top five financial institutions in the US (mind you, this chart
is denominated in TRILLIONS). [chart]
If Lehman had “no idea” what it owned
even when it came to options and futures (regulated derivatives), what are the
odds that these other firms, whose derivative exposure is tens if not hundreds
of times larger than that of Lehman’s, might similarly be “in the dark’
regarding their risk?
Moreover, who on earth might be on the
opposite end of these deals? Other US counties like Birmingham Alabama (which
JP Morgan transformed into 3rd world country status)? Other countries like
Italy or Greece (who used Goldman’s financial engineering to get into the
European Union)? My next-door neighbor’s house? Tim Geithner’s long-lost tax
returns? WHO KNOWS?
The point is that the very same issues
that nearly took the financial world under in 2008 still exist today. In fact,
this time around the systemic risk is even more severe.
Consider that the Credit Default Swap
(CDS) market which nearly took the financial system down in 2008 was roughly
$50-60 trillion in size. In contrast, the interest rate based derivative
market is in the ballpark of $500+ trillion.
Indeed, US commercial banks alone have
$182 TRILLION in notional value of interest rate based derivatives outstanding
right now. To put that ridiculous number in perspective it’s
13 times US GDP and roughly three times WORLD GDP…’
Nation / World
Drudgereport:
TIME:
(WOBAMA) MR. UNPOPULAR... FLASHBACK:
(WOBAMA) TIME MAN OF THE YEAR 2008...
Calls for USA to shore up Afghanistan Bank as withdrawals
accelerate...
UPDATE:
Oil rig explodes in Gulf of Mexico; 7 active wells on platform...
COAST
GUARD: Mile-long 'oil sheen' spreading...
Russian
police raid opposition magazine... [They don’t often do this overtly
in america anymore since most media is in cahoots / controlled; but still, no
excuse for putin who is often disengaged as when he is out shooting Siberian
Tigers with sophisticated weaponry. ]
Pledge
beaten by sorority sisters who warned her 'snitches get stitches'... ‘… In her lawsuit,
excerpted here, Howard noted that she had originally planned to pledge
Alpha Kappa Alpha, the oldest African-American women’s sorority. But since the
sorority’s San Jose chapter has been suspended due to hazing activities, Howard
opted to join Sigma Gamma Rho, believing that “they represented the
‘sisterhood’ she sought in a sorority.” However, Howard contends, that the
group’s pledge process was far from sisterly. According to her complaint, she and
fellow pledges were punched, slapped, kicked, slammed into walls, struck with a
wooden spoon and a cane, and had books and coins thrown at them during a series
of 16 nighttime initiation sessions. Howard recalled one evening when a
sorority sister told her to close her eyes. She was then struck on the buttocks
with what she later learned was a kitchen pot. The pledges were also frequently
struck with a wooden paddle, Howard said, blows that left her with welts on her
buttocks. Howard reported that pledges were repeatedly warned not to talk with
friends and family about the initiation process, since “snitches get stitches.”
They were also told that if they failed to participate in certain pledge
activities, they would be “jumped out,” a gang term for a beating conducted by
all members of the group. Howard’s complaint names as defendants San Jose State
University, Sigma Gamma Rho, and various sorority members, including a quartet
of women who, court records show, pleaded no contest earlier this year to misdemeanor
hazing charges. The defendants--Princess Odom; Monique Hughes; Joslyn Beard;
and Nicole Remble--were each sentenced to 90 days in jail, directed to serve
two years of court probation, and barred from involvement with any sorority.
Odom, Hughes, Beard, and Remble (all negroes) are
pictured here, clockwise from upper left, in San Jose Police Department mug
shots.’
Predicting
This Year's Bank Failures ‘The FDIC’s quarterly banking profile, providing
data for quarter 2, was released today. The number of 2010 United States bank
failures will likely exceed the 2009 failures, the FDIC reported. This was as I
reported in this space back in May. Thus far this year there have been 118 bank
closings, which compares to about 80 by the same time of year in 2009. The
number of banks on the problem list is still rising. It is now at 829 banks…’
Pa.
capital nearing bankruptcy (Washington Post) [ Sounds like a dry run for the nation’s capital. Drudgereport: MORGAN STANLEY:
Government Bond Defaults Inevitable … Everyone who is capable of thinking knows america is defacto bankrupt. The question is,
how did Morgan Stanley’s assessment escape scrutiny and follow-up by the press. Indeed, it is
certainly a breach of duty to have done so in light of the implications. ] In a
highly unusual move, the city of Harrisburg says it will not make a $3.3
million payment.
Obama prods Mideast leaders (Washington Post ) [ The real question is … who is going to prod
defacto bankrupt, war crimes nation america … on peace, that is. Then there’s
that ‘oh, it’s just war crimes, illegal nuke-toting israel … laws, rules, un
resolutions, etc., don’t apply to them factor and the concomitant skepticism
attendant thereto. ] Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Palestinian President
Abbas are set to open direct peace talks.
Five
reasons to be optimistic about the economy (Washington Post) Those Who Ignore History... [The
aforementioned from The Pragmatic Capitalist is a cogent summary of extant
problems which undoubtedly will end quite badly for the unwary (today’s folly
represents a great opportunity to sell / take profits), infra, and
should be read in tandem with Graham Summer’s exposé which follows. Yet, the
situation as realistically bad as they’ve so presented same, is far more dire
than even they posit for the u.s. particularly owing to structural problems now
inherent to america’s economy / business model which bodes ill as never before
in america’s relatively short history. U.S.
Stocks Surge On Overseas Growth Riiiiight! Some of the same mainstream,
(msnbc) ‘money honey’ drivel one would expect from Forbes faux ‘capitalist
tool’ cheerleading squad, totally devoid of forward-looking analytical prowess
and leaves you burned every time. Come on! Government Motors and Ford sales
were down significantly, construction spending down, private sector jobs lost,
and even BofA’s Merrill Lynch has sugar-coated the reality cutting the wall
street frauds a break by calling this a ‘growth rececession’. The typical
fraudulent wall street churn-and-earn computerized trade scam with built in
commission volume for the way down. Sorry to say it, but the reality is:
This is a global depression. This
is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up move was a
manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a
typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great
regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into.
This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud
as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not
end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally
prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.]
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012 Economists
Herald New Great Depression The world is
currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression,
according to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others
now forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.] The Pragmatic Capitalist ‘My position over the last 2 years has been
as follows: this is a Main Street debt crisis. I have been highly critical of
the government’s incessant interventionist policies over the last few years
largely because they ignore the actual problems at hand. First it was Mr.
Bernanke saving the banks because he believed the credit crisis started with
the banking sector. The great monetarist gaffe ensued. Tim
Geithner piled on with the PPIP. FASB jumped on board the bank rescue plan by
altering the accounting rules. And then the icing on the cake was the Recovery
Act, which, in my opinion, just shoveled money into the hole that had become
the output gap, without actually trying to target the real cause of the crisis
– those burdened by the debt. In essence, the various bailouts primarily
targeted everyone except the people who really needed it.
Drudgereport:
Auto
sales: Worst August since 1983...
AMERICA
RUST- India's
economy races 8.8%...
Russian
economy grows 4.0%...
German
unemployment rate 7.6%...
FDIC
MESS: 829 BANKS AT RISK...
48
HOURS: 21 American soldiers killed in Afghanistan...
Worst
August For Stocks Since 2001...
Congressional
Travel Stipends Probed...
Dems
face midterm meltdown...
Ron
Paul questions whether there's gold at Fort Knox, NY Fed...
Dow Falls
140 Points; Banks, Industrials Slide...
1
OUT OF 6 TAKE GOV'T AID...
Homelessness
Up 50% In New York City...
OBAMA
BLAMES BUSH AGAIN FOR ECONOMY … [ bush (et als) does deserve blame but with
flawed pro-fraudulent wall street among other non-policies and continued
nation-bankrupting war, wobama is a distinction without a difference and has
bought it and can no longer shirk responsibility with the blame game ] ...
Iran
state media call French first lady prostitute...
EDUCATION
SEC URGED STAFF: GO TO SHARPTON RALLY
Increase
in federal spending hits record (Washington Post) [ Sounds like a plan …
the ‘increase the depth of the nation’s bankruptcy’ plan! And, unlike other
american plans, this plan’s working … that bankruptcy thing … but otherwise,
not! ]
Is
the U.S. Bankrupt? [YES!] (at Motley Fool)
The Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts recently reported that
bankruptcy filings between April and June hit a four-year high. Consumer
bankruptcies rose 21 percent while business bankruptcies increased eight
percent. The list of corporate bankruptcies over the last couple of years includes
big names like Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual, and GM. And financial institutions like Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) received billions of dollars
through the federal government's Troubled Asset Relief Program. Should
investors add the U.S. government to that list of big name bankruptcies? I recently asked
Boston University economics professor Lawrence Kotlikoff, author of Jimmy Stewart is Dead: Ending the World's Ongoing
Financial Plague with Limited Purpose Banking.
Mac Greer: Larry, I noticed the headline or the
title of a recent article that you wrote, US is Bankrupt and We Don't Even
Know It (see infra)
Home
prices up 4.2 percent in U.S. (Washington Post) [And america and ultimately
taxpayers paid for every percentage point with money they and soon taxpayers
don’t have and experts say the expiration of same will further be felt in the
form of declining real estate prices going forward. ]
For
banks, good news on earnings but not risk of failure (Washington Post) (
The same fraudulent game plan that caused the previous and continuing debacle: The
following from Graham Summers is truly mind-boggling and a must-read: WHO ELSE IS CLUELESS IN THE FINANCIAL SECTOR?
[ As I’ve previously said and reiterate here, the lunatic frauds on wall street
are criminally insane and the only way to stop / deter their debilitating churn
and earn among other computerized frauds is prosecution, jail, fines, and
disgorgement! Once again they’re back to their huge fraudulent gains as seen
this reporting period despite growing problem bank list, worthless paper from
the prior fraud in the (hundreds of) trillions now marked to anything and the
current fraud, and look at August (market) results and worse to come, that
money for their commissions / premiums must come from someplace, viz., the
bubble which will crash. ] ) Lenders post their biggest quarterly profit
in almost three years, even as the number of banks at risk of failure rose to
11 percent of insured institutions.
Obama:
'It is time to turn the page' on Iraq war (Washington
Post) [ Oh come on! How patronizing to have wobama spew his b*** s*** which
b.s. has become synonomous with wobama; ‘to give Iraqis the chance to shape their future’… Iraq’s been destroyed,
covered in cancer-causing depleted uranium, america’s defacto bankrupt, etc. If
only teleprompters had a brain of their own. ] He says the U.S. "has paid a huge price" to give Iraqis the
chance to shape their future -- a price that now includes more than 4,400 U.S.
dead.
7
U.S. troops die in Afghanistan violence (Washington
Post) [ I was discussing my opposition
to the contrived conflict in Iraq with a former air force man with high (top?)
security clearance from economic, geopolitical, and humanitarian perspectives;
and further, mentioned I had sought and gotten an appointment to West Point (I
was exempt) so I could go (Vietnam) as an officer rather than a grunt who were
being used as mere cannon fodder as now in Iraq (I also related the fact that I
am thankful, for a multitude of reasons, I changed my mind in light of then new
realities). He replied, quite seriously, that’s what they’re there for… No they
are not! But yes, that is their unequivocal, unforgiveable attitude beyond the
b*** s*** (look at cheney-5 deferments, bush-powderpuff duty courtesy of poppy
bush, clinton-draft dodger, wobama-never served, etc.. Just a destructive
waste!) The latest deaths bring
to 42 the number of American forces who have died this month in Afghanistan
after July's high of 66.
Ron
Paul to Fed, Ft. Knox: Show Me the Gold
at Minyanville
The
Deteriorating Macro Picture ‘Over the course of the last 18 months I’ve
been adhering to a macro view that can best be summed up as follows:
The rebound in assets was surprisingly strong and the
ability of corporations to sustain bottom line growth has been truly impressive
– far better than I expected. However, I am growing increasingly concerned that
the market has priced in overly optimistic earnings sustainability – in other
words, estimates
and expectations have overshot to the upside.
What we’ve seen over the last few years is not
terribly complex in my opinion. The housing boom created what was in essence a
massively leveraged household sector. The problems were compounded by the
leveraging in the financial sector, however, this was merely a symptom of the
real underlying problem and not the cause of the financial crisis (despite
what Mr. Bernanke continues to say and do to fix the economy) …’
30
Statistics That Prove The Elite Are Getting Richer, The Poor Are Getting Poorer
And The Middle Class Is Being Destroyed Not everyone has been doing badly
during the economic turmoil of the last few years. In fact, there are some
Americans that are doing really, really well. While the vast majority of us
struggle, there is one small segment of society that is seemingly doing better
than ever.
In the Eye of a Financial Katrina - http://seekingalpha.com/author/wall-street-sector-selector
Sunday, August 29th, was the fifth anniversary of Hurricane Katrina’s landfall
along the Gulf Coast and all of us vividly remember the horrific images of that
day and the days and weeks after. Five years later, the Gulf Coast has come a
long way but most would agree there’s still have a long way to go and many
scars yet to be healed. In the world of money and investing, the Financial
Katrina hit three years ago this month with the beginning of the sub prime
meltdown that led to the “Great Recession.” For the past year or so, we
have been in what appeared to be a recovery but now looks more like the eye of
the storm; today it is quite likely that the second wall of the hurricane is
now rapidly bearing down upon us. The news this week was intensely
negative and the only bright spot came on Friday with Chairman Bernanke’s
speech at Jackson Hole in which he essentially told us, “don’t worry, be happy”
and that all would be well. In spite of the Chairman’s calming tone, Wall
Street Sector Selector remains in the “red flag flying” mode and we believe
that an intense storm lies just ahead. Looking
at My Screens On
a technical basis, one can only be bearish and the two charts below tell a
quick and scary story. [ chart courtesy of StockCharts.com ]In the
chart of the S&P 500 above we see the “death cross” highlighted by the
downward pointing arrow wherein the 50-Day Moving Average crossed below the
200-Day Moving Average which is a widely followed indicator of lower stock
prices ahead. In the upper box we see the 14-day RSI pointing upwards from
relatively oversold levels indicating that a short term bounce could be
forthcoming, while the red horizontal line shows the support at 1040 which was
tested and held every day last week. From this display we can conclude that we
are in a bear market, slightly oversold and near support that, if broken, could
lead to a quick drop to the July lows of 1010. [ chart courtesy
of StockCharts.com ] The point and figure chart above paints an even
more ominous picture. A double bottom “sell” signal was generated on August
11th and the index has now broken through the blue bullish support line,
indicating the onset of a new bear market in this major index. Support and
resistance lines in point and figure charting tend to act like firm walls and
mark major turning points in direction, and this recent trend change is the
first since March, 2009, when the lows were hit and last year’s unprecedented
rally began. The breach of this bullish support line is a major development
and in my opinion is an unmistakable sign that it’s time to head for the storm
shelters. The View from 35,000 Feet The fundamental news was equally
shocking this week as existing home sales declined to 3.8 million units for
July from a previous level of 5.26 million. This number is a record low and
single family home sales were at the lowest levels since 1995. Truly we are in
what could only be described as a housing market depression, and this comes in
spite of historically low mortgage rates that people appear to be ignoring.
Seemingly almost nobody wants to buy a house at any rate or any price. New home
sales fared no better, declining to record lows, as well, while 25% of mortgage
holders are currently “upside down” in their homes, owning more than they’re
worth, and 15% are in some part of the foreclosure process. Beyond the dismal
news from the housing market, the July Durable Goods report was dismal and
points to an ongoing slowdown in capital spending and on Friday 2nd Quarter GDP
was revised downward to 1.6% from a previous 2.4% in what could only be
described as a terrifying result in light of the stimulus and Federal Reserve
intervention required to generate this paltry number. More and more
analysts are pointing to further reductions in GDP for 3rd Quarter towards flat
or even negative territory while the stock market seems currently priced for
1.5-2.5% growth and this creates a situation which is unlikely to have a
positive outcome going forward. Looking across the spectrum of noted analysts, we find Princeton
economist and former Federal Reserve member Alan Blinder writing an article in
the Wall Street Journal titled, “The Fed is Running out of Ammo” and noted Yale
economist Robert Shiller appeared on the Wall Street Journal’s “Big Interview”
and said that a double dip “may be imminent.” And finally Albert Edwards, the
noted analyst from Societe General says to look for 450 on the S&P
500, a roll back to 1982 levels. Fidelity reports that in the second quarter
25% of people took hardship withdrawals from their 401ks, a number that
represents a 10 year high, to help them meet living expenses and the ECRI
remained in recessionary territory with a -9.9% reading last week. On Friday
Intel (INTC) cut its earnings and revenue forecast
and across the Atlantic Ireland was downgraded and given a negative outlook by
S&P. Also in Europe, interest rates and Credit Default Swap pricing
continued to rise as their sovereign debt situation continues to erode
confidence in the outcome of the European Central Bank’s historic intervention
efforts of a couple of months ago. The bond market remains priced for
Armageddon, forming what many say will one day be the biggest bubble of all
time and lead to a historic crash in the bond market somewhere down the road.
But on Friday, Dr. Bernanke cheered world markets when he told us that he
expected no double dip, that growth would continue and improve and that he and
his colleagues stood ready to do whatever it takes to avoid deflation and that
he had the tools to lead the global economy to recovery. This upbeat assessment
comes after unprecedented government stimulus, interest rates lowered to near
zero and $1.7 Trillion of asset purchases by the Fed since the onset of the
Great Recession. So one can only wonder how this is going to work. If the
medicine hasn’t worked so far, why would a little more of the same medicine
make a difference? What It All Means As we’ve been saying for weeks, a
double dip looks highly probable with the odds growing daily, lower stock
prices look likely and to make your chest feel even tighter, summer is almost
over, traders will be back from the Hamptons, the kids will be back in school
and we’re about to enter the dreaded month of September which is historically
the worst month for stock market performance. At Wall Street Sector
Selector, we remain in the “Red Flag” mode, expecting lower prices ahead, and
we forecast that the second storm wall of the Financial Katrina is about to
hit. The Week Ahead To say that a major week lies ahead is a massive understatement. Economic
Reports: A busy
round of economic reports this week will give us a look at personal income and
spending, home prices, manufacturing and what the Federal Reserve really
thought at their recent meeting with everything leading up to the climactic Non
Farm Payroll report on Friday. Certainly all of this will be food for thought
going into the long Labor Day weekend. Tuesday: 0900: Case/Shiller 20 City Home Price
Index 0945: August Chicago PMI 1000: August Consumer Confidence. 1400: FOMC
Meeting Minutes Wednesday: 0815: July Construction Spending 1000: August ISM Index
1400: August Auto Sales Thursday: 0830: Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims
1000: July Factory Orders 1000: July Pending Home Sales Friday:
0830: August Non Farm Payrolls 0830: August
Unemployment Rate 1000: ISM Services Sector Spotlight: Leaders: Silver, Oil, Copper Laggards: Mexico, Global Shipping, South Korea
This week we’re heading for Southwest Florida for a last week of R&R before
school starts and reality strikes after the long Labor Day weekend. We hope to
have a nice time on the beach and not see any tar balls between our toes.
Sadly, I’m sure this year’s Labor Day celebration won’t be a particularly happy
occasion for the 14.6 million of our fellow citizens who remain unemployed and
I can only wish them the very best and a speedy return to gainful employment
and happier days ahead. Disclosure: RWM, PSQ, SH, SEF, EFZ, SKF, VXX,
S&P 500 Put Option
Car
sales, spending up, but experts not convinced of trend (Washington Post) [
I’d say time for ‘mouth to mouth
resuscitation’ and a closer look isn’t even necessary. Some experts? Just ask
any guy on main street. Treading water? I’d say time for post-mortem on the
drowning victim.] But a closer look at those car sales raises questions about
whether the auto market - and consumer spending as a whole - are indeed on an
upward arc or whether they are just treading water.
In
the Middle East, it's still 1947 (Washington
Post) [ Indeed it should be! Among the few
times the cia was correct, and they’ve been trying to put square pegs in round
holes ever since, to america’s substantial detriment. I wonder what what those
american sailors of the US Liberty killed by the israelis would say? USS
Liberty Survivor Threatened by Unknown Israeli This is what happened to Phillip F. Tourney, decorated war hero
and survivor of Israel’s premeditated attack on the USS Liberty 43 years ago.
On the evening of Aug. 6, Tourney was verbally threatened by a foreign national
claiming to work for the government of israel. As for the purported disdain
shown for war mongerer netanayahu, if only wobama’s actions matched his words,
the same would represent a major plus for him and the nation of america, so
sorely in need of pluses whether the same be budgetary or economic or
geopolitical. In fact, for America to abrogate 1948 would guarantee America’s
survival, prosperity, and global hegemony in the most positive sense. ]
Obama
speech on Iraq has risks (Washington Post) [ Yeah, very true indeed!
The main one being that he’s supplanting that illegal, unnecessary,
nation-bankrupting war with yet another in Afghanistan which will not be lost
on those who supported his candidacy based on promised end to unnecessary war
policies which have diverted time, attention, ill-afforded resources including
personnel and continue to do so even as defacto bankrupt america crumbles.
]
China’s
Central Bank Chief Rumored To Have Defected Rumors have circulated in China
that People’s Bank of China Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan has left the country. The
rumors appear to have started following reports on Aug. 28 which cited Ming
Pao, a Hong Kong-based news agency, saying that because of an approximately
$430 billion loss on U.S. Treasury bonds, the Chinese government may punish
some individuals within the PBOC, including Zhou.
Stocks
up [america down] (Washington Post) Previously
reported economic growth, upon which hundreds of rally ‘points’ were
predicated, revised down by 50% of the actual 1.6%. This is typical but no
small laughing matter which bespeaks the wayward ways of wall street that got
us to this debacle which also includes defacto bankruptcy of the nation. So,
GDP down, consumer confidence down, and stocks rally like no tomorrow (which is
the fraudulent wall street time horizon … they’ll just commission on the way
down). Am I missing something here, particularly when a more sobering view from
a rational player, INTEL, is far more credible? One former fed chair likened
no-recession-helicopter ben bernanke’s factually deficient, empty words to ‘a
doctor telling a patient he’s not sure of what the problem is (that economic
uncertainty thing he referenced), but if his leg gets worse he can always
amputate.’ Previously, as pertains to the jackson hole
no-recession-helicopter-ben b*** s*** non-event / talk. Fed action signals new activism (WP) [
Riiiiight! The activist fed! That’s all we need. As if we needed more of what
brought us to this point! Certainly the fed’s role in the continuing and
current financial crisis / debacle cannot be ignored or disputed. Nothing like
a hegelian methodology to create the
very problems for which they are called upon to offer solutions, increasing
their sense of importance, and concentrating power thereby. (Think about it. It
is really rather quite absurd that each meeting time the financial markets hold
their bated breath for these incompetent boobs). Then there’s the cover-up with
an opportunity for enrichment of some, usually the tight-lipped yes-men then
ever after and forever bonded in what becomes tantamount to an almost fraternal
link by ‘virtue’ of the crime thereby. No, I’m not saying their initial
missteps were necessarily badly intended, but the manipulations thereafter to
obfuscate their incompetence (senile greenspun, no-recession-helicopter-ben,
etc.) comes at a great price and is nothing less than tantamount to or just
outright crime. I’d abolish the fed without hesitation or compunction. After
all, at this point of decline and defacto bankruptcy of the nation you
certainly can’t point to success nor argue their indispensability. Then there’s
also the missing trillions, over-printing of fiat currency, and all that sub
rosa activity with the worthless fraudulent toxic paper which I believe is
being supplanted with ultimately hard currency to the great benefit of the
frauds and great detriment to the nation.]
Fed
vows to act if economy stalls (Washington Post) [ Wow!
Really! Sounds like a plan! A ‘no-recession-helicopter-ben’ plan! One former fed chair / bk. pres. likened
no-recession-helicopter ben bernanke’s factually deficient, empty words to ‘a
doctor telling a patient he’s not sure of what the problem is (that economic
uncertainty thing no-recession-helicopter-ben referenced), but if his leg gets worse he can always amputate’
Why
is the recovery faltering? (Washington Post) [ Oooooh! ‘Dat ben! He
gives such great, unctuously soothing talks. Along with wobama, we must
consider this time, a time for defacto bankrupt American decline with the
cocomitant rise of b*** s*** . The watchwords are no longer (as in Hollywood
and elsewhere) ‘pastics’, ‘computer chips’,
but rather b*** s*** and more b*** s***! I truly must say, almost as a
‘revenge to Samuelson economics kind of thing’, that Mr. Samuelson here talks
symptoms rather than (structural) causes and totally misses the (big)
macroeconomic picture and should be chastised for faulting prudence.]
Helicopter
Ben Bernanke Says Everything Is Going To Be Okay Don’t worry everybody.
Federal Reserve Chairman “No Recession Helicopter Ben” Bernanke says that the
U.S. economy is going to be just fine, and that if it does slip up somehow the
Federal Reserve is ready to rush in to the rescue. That was essentially
Bernanke’s message to an annual gathering of central bankers in Jackson Hole,
Wyoming on Friday.
Is Ben Lost? [Yes!]
Butter ‘The much awaited
speech by Ben Bernanke, on Friday, was a bit of a non-event. It was
interesting, however, to see the 30 Year bounce, from 3.55% to 3.7%, the moment
that Ben explained his cunning plan to push long-term interest rates down. But
at least we learned that $140 billion of the $1.25 billion the Fed advanced to
buy agency debt and MBS, got repaid. One question Ben: “How much did you pay
for the $140 billion that got repaid? Did you make a profit, or are you going
to wait until Ron Paul’s audit before you let us know how that went?.” I know
I’ve got a dirty mind, but I can’t help thinking that if Ben had made a profit
on that transaction, he would have been crowing about it. I loved this bit,
particularly the “Thus”:
Thus, our purchases of Treasury, agency debt, and
agency MBS likely both reduced the yields on those securities and also pushed
investors into holding other assets with similar characteristics, such as
credit risk and duration. For example, some investors who sold MBS to the Fed
may have replaced them in their portfolios with longer-term, high-quality
corporate bonds, depressing the yields on those assets as well.
Hmm…
But this was
the kicker, admittedly hidden away between jargon-heaped on jargon, but there
all the same:
(Al those good things managed)... provide further
support for the economic recovery while maintaining price stability, the Fed
has also taken extraordinary measures to ease monetary and financial
conditions.
I especially
love the part about “further” support. As if the banks are going out and
lending money to Main Street, as opposed to simply using their free, Fed
supplied, get-out-of-jail card to create an illusion of solvency whilst they
“extend and pretend”. Similar to what happened in Japan after their bubble
burst. The real gem, however, was the idea of “maintaining price stability”.
What that means is stopping assets prices (house prices, commercial real
estate, and to some extent stocks) from going down to where they have to go,
before market clearing can start. Funny how when asset prices were bubbling
through the roof, that was not considered “inflationary” by the Fed and was not
something to be concerned about. But, when asset prices fall through the floor,
that is considered deflationary (or disinflationary), and is very bad. Ben
looks to me suspiciously like a greenhorn lost in the woods who used up all his
ammo shooting at shadows. And yet, there is the Big Bad Wolf of private sector
deleveraging faster than he can run the printing presses, (and more
importantly, get that money out into the real world) lurking round the corner.’
Corporate
Media Dismisses Castro’s Bin Laden Claim As Far-Fetched Conspiracy Theory The corporate media wasted little time in
seizing upon controversial Cuban leader Fidel Castro’s comments about Osama bin
Laden being a U.S. spy to deride the claim as a far-fetched conspiracy theory,
and yet the fact that Bin Laden was once a CIA protégé and has been used time
and again to the benefit of the U.S. government’s geopolitical agenda is a
documented fact.
Drudgereport: 7
US troops killed in latest Afghanistan fighting...
Castro:
Osama bin Laden is US spy...
PAPER:
CIA secretly paying Afghan officials...
7
U.S. troops die in Afghanistan violence (Washington
Post) [ I was discussing my opposition
to the contrived conflict in Iraq with a former air force man with high (top?)
security clearance from economic, geopolitical, and humanitarian perspectives;
and further, mentioned I had sought and gotten an appointment to West Point (I
was exempt) so I could go (Vietnam) as an officer rather than a grunt who were
being used as mere cannon fodder as now in Iraq (I also related the fact that I
am thankful, for a multitude of reasons, I changed my mind in light of then new
realities). He replied, quite seriously, that’s what they’re there for… No they
are not! But yes, that is their unequivocal, unforgiveable attitude beyond the
b*** s*** (look at cheney-5 deferments, bush-powderpuff duty courtesy of poppy,
clinton-draft dodger, wobama-never served, etc.. Just a destructive waste!) The latest deaths bring to 42 the number of American
forces who have died this month in Afghanistan after July's high of 66.
U.S.
officers weary and humbled (Washington Post) [ Indeed they should be; and, if they are able
to make sense of the last 2 decades particularly, they are certifiably true
american crazy, a condition in the u.s. and among it’s war mongering allies
that is found in self-destructive abundance. No joke! And then there are the
crimes / frauds. My position is also that such frauds as the disappearance of
the 360 tons of $100 bills, etc., and similar such frauds should come right off
the top, a direct reduction in their budget allocation particularly in light of
the defacto bankruptcy of the nation! ]
How Iraq vets make sense
of the last seven years will affect how america wields its military power [very
poorly indeed!] .
We’re Already In Recession [actually a depression] Harding ‘‘First let’s look at the
trend. After an unusual four straight quarters of negative growth in the
severe 2008-2009 recession, the recession ended in the September quarter of
last year when GDP managed fragile growth of 1.6% for the quarter, and then
improved to 5.0% growth in the December quarter.It was understood that much of
that growth was temporary, fueled by government spending, and spending by
consumers provided with government bonuses and rebates, as well as temporary
rebuilding of inventories by businesses. But it was expected that with that
jumpstart the recovery could continue on its own legs.So, it was a bit of a
surprise when GDP growth slowed to 3.7% in the March quarter of this year while
those programs were still having an influence. But economists still expected
the economy would grow at a 3% pace in the June quarter even with those
programs winding down, and for the rest of the year.So, it was a real
disappointment when second quarter growth was reported a month ago as
having been only 2.4%. Plus, when additional data became available for
May and June, the last two months of the second quarter, and those reports
were increasingly negative, economists predicted that Q2 GDP growth would be
revised down to only 1.3%.On Friday, the revision was released, and it showed
growth last quarter slowed significantly, but only to 1.6%, not as bad as the
latest forecast.The media and the stock market, starving for good news–and with
the market short-term oversold after being down 10 of the previous 13 days–took
it as a positive. But let’s get real.The issue is not whether economists
got their forecast right or wrong, but the degree to which economic growth is
slowing. And a trend of 5% growth in the December quarter, followed by a 1.3%
decline to 3.7% growth in the March quarter, followed by a 2.1% decline to 1.6%
growth in the March quarter is a chilling rate of decline.Now factor in that
economic reports so far for July and August, the first two months of the third
quarter, have been significantly worse than those of May and June, and
significantly worse than economists’ forecasts, with the relapse pretty much
across the board; in the housing industry, manufacturing, retail sales,
consumer and business confidence, the decline in U.S. exports, and so on.It’s
not a stretch then to think that economic growth is declining by another increment
of more than 1.6% this quarter, which would have it in negative territory,
already in recession.In his speech Friday morning at the annual economic
symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Fed Chairman Bernanke, while saying he
still expects the economy to grow in the second half “albeit at a relatively
modest pace” did not put forth a very convincing argument, using such phrases
as “painfully slow recovery in the labor market”. . . “economic projections are
inherently uncertain”. . . . “the economy is vulnerable to unexpected
developments” . . . “the recovery is less vigorous than we expected.”Nor did he
seem confident that the Fed’s depleted arsenal of tools to re-stimulate the
economy would be effective if needed. Two of the four possible actions he mentioned
seemed to suggest consumers and markets could be fooled into confidence with
mere talk.His brief list of four possible actions were, “1) conducting
additional purchases of longer-term securities [bonds and mortgage-related
securities]; 2) modifying the Fed’s FOMC meeting communications to investors;
3) reducing the interest the Fed pays banks on their excess reserves. And I
will also comment of a fourth strategy, proposed by several economists- namely,
that the Fed increase its inflation goals.”Providing details on two of the four
possible actions, he said, “The Fed’s current statement after its FOMC meetings
reflects the FOMC’s anticipation that exceptionally low interest rates will be
warranted ‘for an extended period’ . . . A step the Committee could consider if
conditions called for it, would be to modify the language to communicate to
investors that it anticipates keeping the target for the federal funds rate low
for a longer period of time.”As for the fourth possible action in his list of
four, he said the Fed could alter the phrases it uses to communicate its goals
for inflation by “increasing its medium-term inflation goals above levels
consistent with price stability.”That’s scary stuff if those are two of the
four actions the Fed sees as its best options to re-stimulate the economy.Also
of concern, in its report revising Q2 GDP growth down to just 1.6%, the
Commerce Department reported that corporate earnings declined significantly in
the second quarter, after-tax earnings rising just 0.1%, compared to the gain
of 11.4% in the first quarter. Meanwhile, Wall Street continues to ratchet up
its earnings estimates.On the positive side, consumer spending, which accounts
for 70% of the economy, rose 2% in the second quarter, compared to 1.9% in the first
quarter. But the bad news is that the reports since, on consumer confidence and
retail sales in July and August, have been big disappointments.Putting it all
together, don’t be surprised if a couple of months down the road we learn the
economy was already in recession in the current quarter.’
Previously
reported economic growth, upon which hundreds of rally ‘points’ were
predicated, revised down by 50% of the actual 1.6%. This is typical but no
small laughing matter which bespeaks the wayward ways of wall street that got
us to this debacle which also includes defacto bankruptcy of the nation. So,
GDP down, consumer confidence down, and stocks rally like no tomorrow (which is
the fraudulent wall street time horizon … they’ll just commission the way
down). Am I missing something here, particularly when a more sobering view from
a rational player, INTEL, is far more credible. One former fed chair likened
no-recession-helicopter ben bernanke’s factually deficient, empty words to ‘a
doctor telling a patient he’s not sure of what the problem is (that economic
uncertainty thing he referenced), but if his leg gets worse he can always
amputate.’ Previously, as pertains to the jackson hole
no-recession-helicopter-ben b*** s*** non-event / talk. Fed action signals new activism (Washington
Post) [ Riiiiight! The activist fed! That’s all we need. As if we needed more
of what brought us to this point! Certainly the fed’s role in the continuing
and current financial crisis / debacle cannot be ignored or disputed. Nothing
like a hegelian methodology to create
the very problems for which they are called upon to offer solutions, increasing
their sense of importance, and concentrating power thereby. (Think about it. It
is really rather quite absurd that each meeting time the financial markets hold
their bated breath for these incompetent boobs). Then there’s the cover-up with
an opportunity for enrichment of some, usually the tight-lipped yes-men then
ever after and forever bonded in what becomes tantamount to an almost fraternal
link by ‘virtue’ of the crime thereby. No, I’m not saying their initial
missteps were necessarily badly intended, but the manipulations thereafter to
obfuscate their incompetence (senile greenspun, no-recession-helicopter-ben,
etc.) comes at a great price and is nothing less than tantamount to or just
outright crime. I’d abolish the fed without hesitation or compunction. After
all, at this point of decline and defacto bankruptcy of the nation you
certainly can’t point to success nor argue their indispensability. Then there’s
also the missing trillions, over-printing of fiat currency, and all that sub
rosa activity with the worthless fraudulent toxic paper which I believe is
being supplanted with ultimately hard currency to the great benefit of the
frauds and great detriment to the nation.]
Drudgereport:
Analyst:
CITIGROUP 'Cooking the Books'...
Banks
back switch to renminbi for trade; Incentives to move from dollar and euro...
THE
SPEECH: Bernanke under pressure to prop it up...
'RECOVERY
SUMMER' ENDS SICK
GDP
REVISION: 1.6%
Says
recovery softer, Fed prepared to buy more...
Weaker
GDP raises stakes...
WIRE:
What Biden didn't
mention on stimulus...
ZUCKERMAN:
The Most Fiscally Irresponsible Government in History … along with bushes’...
Joint
Chiefs Chairman: National Debt is a Security Threat...
Recession
pushes US birth rate to new low...
RECOVERY
BUMMER: Youth employment lowest since 1948...
Thousands line up before dawn for mortgage help in Palm Beach
County...
Chossudovsky:
China could already be world’s largest economy
Is
the U.S. Bankrupt? [YES!] (at Motley Fool)
The Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts recently reported that
bankruptcy filings between April and June hit a four-year high. Consumer
bankruptcies rose 21 percent while business bankruptcies increased eight
percent. The list of corporate bankruptcies over the last couple of years
includes big names like Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual, and GM. And financial institutions like
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Wells
Fargo (NYSE: WFC) received billions of dollars
through the federal government's Troubled Asset Relief Program. Should
investors add the U.S. government to that list of big name bankruptcies? I recently asked
Boston University economics professor Lawrence Kotlikoff, author of Jimmy Stewart is Dead: Ending the World's Ongoing
Financial Plague with Limited Purpose Banking.
Mac Greer: Larry, I noticed the headline or the title of a recent article
that you wrote, US is Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It. So with that
in mind, what is your take on the economy these days?
Larry Kotlikoff: Well there is a lot of uncertainty, as rightfully there should
be. We have seen the financial sector implode basically because of the
systematic production and sale of trillions of dollars of fraudulent securities
under the cover of proprietary information, so nobody really had the ability to
look inside big companies like Bear Sterns or Merrill Lynch to see exactly what
they owned or owed. That problem remains today, even with the passage of
Dodd-Frank. There is no requirement that the financial industry come clean with
respect to what it is doing with our money, so every major financial player
says you can't see what we are doing because we have the Midas touch. We are
going to beat the market, and if we show you, everybody will see our secret
formula for making you a mint. As a result, they have a great cover to produce
fraudulent securities. And then when there is a sniff of fraud, one can easily
presume that everything they are doing is fraudulent, which may not at all be
the case. And then there is a run against those institutions as we saw with
Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers and all the other ones because of the
perception that so much of their holdings were fraudulent and that their
reporting was fraudulent. And of course the rating companies and the regulators
and the boards of directors and the members of Congress were all, in effect, in
bed with each other to achieve this result. I don't see anything that has
fundamentally changed, so that is one major area of fragility. We could have
another meltdown in the financial market tomorrow because as Dick Fuld [Lehman
former CEO] said, he claims that their balance sheet was just fine and that
this was all just a panic, it was not connected with any facts. Well, he said
that every institution on Wall Street ---
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), JP
Morgan (NYSE: JPM) -- could have experienced the same thing.
His concern about this happening to other companies is well taken. So we have a
financial system that is set up to fail again, and we have a fiscal situation
which is a complete and dire mess. It could lead to a financial panic that
could lead to a much bigger meltdown of the financial system than we have seen.
Greer: Is the U.S. bankrupt?
Kotlikoff: Bankruptcy means not being able to pay your future bills. If
you can't pay your current bills, your creditors are already after you so you
already are bankrupt. If you can't pay your future bills, that really is
the operational definition of going bankrupt or being bankrupt. The U.S.
government can't pay its future bills. These bills, in total, in present value,
exceed the revenues by $202 trillion. This is based on taking the data
projected by CBO (Congressional Budget Office) back on June 26 of this year,
when they put out their alternative fiscal scenario, which is their best
long-term projection of government spending, including servicing the official
debt, and government revenues. And if you present value the differential
between spending and revenues, including extrapolating beyond their projection
which is important to do, you get a fiscal gap of $202 trillion. To come
up with $202 trillion in present value, you'd have to immediately and
permanently double all taxes we have. You'd have to do it immediately.
We're talking here about running a 5% GDP surplus this year instead of running
a 9% deficit. So I don't see that happening. We have to cut spending or we have
to print money. Either way you're cutting spending so either way you're, in
effect, reining in spending promises. And that suits my definition of
bankruptcy. And I think there are ways of cutting spending and getting our
fiscal house in order but we need to engage in radical surgery here and not
putting on the band-aid that this administration is so fond of.
Greer: One of our Motley Fool writers recently interviewed Euro Pacific Capital President Peter
Schiff. In 2006, he was predicting the economic downturn, and he now
says that we are, "In the early stages of a depression now. It is going to
be a horrific experience for average Americans who are going to watch their
standard of living plunge." Do you agree?
Kotlikoff: Well, this has been a depression so far for millions of
Americans. It didn't have to happen. It is really man-made. We have the same
physical capital and human capital sitting here in place. We don't have to stay
in a depressed state. The problem is that things are not coordinated. We don't
have buyers optimistic about getting paid salaries and we don't have sellers
optimistic about being able to find buyers, so everybody is kind of sitting on
their hands. We can have some, a bunch of KISS's, which are "keep it
simple, stupid" solutions to our problems, and lots of people throughout
the country realize this, that we need to fix things fundamentally. We can't do
it with 2,000 page bills that make bureaucratic structures that are basically
clogging up our economic arteries, even more bureaucratic…
China
Buys Euros as Fear of World Depression Grows Webster G.
Tarpley | The one certainty
is that there is no recovery, and that the second wave of a world economic
depression dominates the world.
Economy Caught in Depression, Not Recession: Rosenberg Positive
gross domestic product readings and other mildly hopeful signs are masking an
ugly truth: The US economy is in a 1930s-style Depression, Gluskin Sheff economist
David Rosenberg said Tuesday. ‘Positive gross domestic product readings and
other mildly hopeful signs are masking an ugly truth: The US economy is in a
1930s-style Depression, Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg said Tuesday.
Writing in his daily briefing to investors, Rosenberg said the Great Depression
also had its high points, with a series of positive GDP reports and sharp stock
market gains. But then as now, those signs of recovery were unsustainable and
only provided a false sense of stability, said Rosenberg. Rosenberg calls current economic
conditions “a depression, and not just some
garden-variety recession,” and notes that any good news both during the initial
1929-33 recession and the one that began in 2008 triggered “euphoric response.”
Even
Tony Robbins Is Warning That An Economic Collapse Is Coming It seems like
almost everyone is warning of a coming economic collapse these days.
Why to Expect a Bipolar Market Move Next Week [Well, I don’t know about a diagnosis of
bipolar, but ‘criminally insane’; yes, that’s wall street in a nutshell.]
Bond Bubble, Dollar Doom - Embrace The Fear Says Fisher [ Riiiiight!
Sounds like a plan … to bail out the frauds on wall street as they sell their
‘hot potatoes’ in their typical ‘musical chair’ pre-crash charade! ] ‘… Hussman: Dollar
Collapse Coming: In his
latest market commentary, top fund manager John Hussman continues to express a
bearish view, and says that more quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve is likely to
trigger “an abrupt collapse in the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar”.
Hussman offers something of a primer on exchange rates, and concludes by saying
this: “The policy of quantitative easing is likely to force a large adjustment
on the U.S. dollar because the Federal Reserve is choosing to lay a heavier
hand on the Treasury bond market than would result from economic conditions
alone,” he says. “The resulting shift in interest rates and long-term inflation
prospects combine to dramatically reduce the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar.
A significant and relatively abrupt devaluation is then required, in an amount
sufficient to set up expectations of a U.S. dollar appreciation over time.” Special
Offer: People mocked Gary Shilling when he said SELL in 2006 and 2007. But he
was right and his subscribers are richer for it. Click here for Gary Shilling’s
current investment advice. As for the market, Hussman says he
continues to see unfavorable valuations, unfavorable market action, and
unfavorable economic pressures. The Fed’s new go at quantitative easing may
well limit deflationary fears, he says, which has led him to increase exposure
to precious metals and foreign currencies. Hussman also says the U.S. should
focus on restructuring debt, and offers his take on how it should do so …’
U.S. Financial System Still "Fundamentally
Corrupt," Kotlikoff Says: Here's How to Fix It ‘We have a "fundamentally corrupt
financial system" and the Dodd-Frank reform bill did nothing to change it,
says Boston University economics professor Laurence
Kotlikoff. "Relatively little has changed except there are
going to be more federal regulators who are probably going to miss major
problems." At the core of the 2008 crisis was "the production and
sale of trillions of fundamentally fraudulent securities," Kotlikoff says,
suggesting all levels of society participated in the fraud -- including
homeowners. At the center of it all were financial intermediaries (a.k.a. Wall
Street) who packaged and sold "snake oil under the guise of proprietary
information" to limit or eliminate disclosure, and enabled by corrupt
rating agencies, regulators and elected officials, he says. In the accompanying video, Kotlikoff
explains how we can "make Wall Street safe for Main Street." In short, we should transform all financial
companies with limited liability (banks, hedge funds, private equity firms and
insurance companies alike) into mutual funds, which the professor describes as
"little banks that have 100% capital requirements. " Notably, the big
mutual fund companies survived the "financial earthquake" of 2008-09
when the rest of the financial system collapsed, Kotlikoff recalls. In late
2009, Kotlikoff and Harvard's Niall Ferguson penned an op-ed for The FT describing a blueprint for
how to take moral hazard out of banking. Citing a speech by Bank of England
governor Mervyn King, Kotlikoff and Ferguson called for "limited purpose
banking" (LPB), that would "limit banks to their legitimate purpose -
financial intermediation and payment facilitation." Nine months later,
Kotlikoff remains convinced this "very simple reform" remains a much
better alternative than the financial reform bill hammered out in Washington -
with plenty of influence from Wall Street lobbyists. "We are rebuilding
[the system] out of straw rather than out of brick," Kotlikoff says,
suggesting his "LPB" proposal will ultimately be good for the economy
and provide a model for the rest of the world. "If we have a safe, sound
[financial] structure other countries will follow suit," he says.’
100-Year Bonds --- Sign of Trouble?
Even
Tony Robbins Is Warning That An Economic Collapse Is Coming It seems like
almost everyone is warning of a coming economic collapse these days.
National / World:
Saudi
couple hammer 24 hot nails into their maid after she complained of heavy
workload [Saudi Arabia is total
b*** s***. Time for displacement of the saudi mob family, and establishment of
a meaningful nation-state! They are an embarrassment to Muslims everywhere!] A
Saudi couple tortured their Sri Lankan maid by hammering 24 hot nails into her
after she complained of her heavy workload. Mrs Ariyawathi told a local
newspaper that her employers tortured her with the nails as punishment.
Drudgereport:
MORGAN
STANLEY: Government Bond Defaults Inevitable...
Roubini:
Growth to Be 'Well Below' 1% ...
New Home
Sales Sink to Lowest Pace on Record...
POLITICO:
SOME DEMS THINK HOUSE IS GONE...
INTEL
CEO blasts Obama, Dems; USA faces looming tech decline...
LETTERMAN
TURNS: 'He'll have plenty of time for vacations after his one term' … [ This
really is so true … wobama is so total, typical b*** s*** ] ...
Drudgereport:
GALLUP
GENDER GAP: Obama's Approval Among Men Hits All-Time Low of 39%...
LOBOTOMY
JOE BIDEN: 'We're moving in right direction'… Right lobotomy joe, anything you
say! ...
Worries
about recovery deepen...
'Hindenburg
Omen' creator exits stock market...
Economy in
'Depression, Not Recession'...
Dow Faces
'Bouncy Ride to 5,000'...
Typical
Slow Summer -- or Something Darker?
Drop
in Home Sales Renews Pricing Fears...
Investors
Scatter to Safety...
Unemployed
group blasts Geithner's handling of economy...
BOEHNER
URGES OBAMA TO FIRE...
'Government
as community organizer' has failed...
LA
UNVEILS $578 MILLION SCHOOL
More
Expensive Than China's Olympic Stadium!
California
Delays $2.9 Billion School, County Payments Amid Budget Impasse...
'Beat
Whitey Night': Iowa racial attacks at state fair... POLICE
REPORTS...
Jim
Rogers: If You Want Your Family To Be Silly Rich In The Future, Then Leave
America And Move To Asia Now As you may know, Jim Rogers moved to Singapore
in 2007, though he maintains a residence in the U.S. as well.
World Indices / Week ended
August 20, 2010 Yahoo Finance
BEAR MARKET MATH - JULY LOWS IN
DANGER , On Friday August
20, 2010, 4:53 pm EDT ‘
1+1=2
2+2=4
The simplicity
and accuracy of those calculations is undeniable. How about this equation?
Fundamental Weakness + Technical Sell Signals + Overpriced Stocks = Lower Stock
Prices. This calculation also seems to be simple and accurate. Let's look at
some equations that don't make sense.
1+1=3 or Better Earnings = Higher Stock Prices Earnings season is over. Most companies
beat earnings but issued cautious forecasts. This is particularly true of the
tech (NYSEArca: XLK - News)
and financial sectors (NYSEArca: XLF - News).
By large, profits are still driven by cost-cutting, not organic growth. Retail
sales, which make up about one third of the economy, continued to fall after the
second quarter ended. Additionally, the expectation that taxes will go up might
have moved some companies to pull some of next year's income into this year.
This can't be good for Q3 and Q4 profits. As the chart below shows, positive
earnings reports are not bullish for stocks, especially if future guidance is
weak.[chart]
2+2=5 or Weaker than Expected Economy = Rising Stock Prices On July 30, the Bureau of Economic
Analysis (BEA) lowered the previous quarter's Gross Domestic Product (GD)
growth from an estimated 2.7% to 2.4%. But it didn't stop there. The real GDP
for all three previous years was revised as well. It was lowered by 0.2% for
2007, it was lowered by 0.6% for 2008, and it was lowered by 0.4% for 2009. In
percentage terms, the real GDP for 2007 was revised down from 2.5% growth to
2.3%. The 2008 decrease was lowered from 1.9% to 2.8% and 2009 growth was
revised up from a 0.1% to a 0.2% increase. In essence, the BEA proved that the
recession was (or is) much deeper than perceived and the alleged recovery much
weaker than previously reported. This comes as no surprise, as the key sector
of the financial debacle - real estate (NYSEArca: IYR
- News)
- remains in a funk. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that the number of vacant
properties, including foreclosures, residences for sale, and vacation homes,
reached 18.9 million. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continue to lose money. Has
anyone ever wondered how banks (NYSEArca: KBE
- News)
can make money on the same kind of loans that pushed Fannie and Freddie to the
brink of ruin? Since bad real estate loans triggered the post 2007 economic
meltdown, how can the economy recover without real estate leading the way?
3+3=7 or Positive
Analyst Estimates = Higher Stock Prices A recent Associated Press article observed that 'analysts
only seem to hit the mark with their estimates in the strongest economic times
(2003 - 2006).' Why? 'The problem is that analysts get most of their
information from the companies they cover. Corporate managers have every
incentive to stay positive for as long as they can.' Is that true; as true as
1+1=2? On April 26, the day the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) topped at 1,219, the Dow
(DJI: ^DJI) at 11,258, the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) at 2,535, Bloomberg reported
the following: 'U.S. stocks cheapest since 1990 on analyst estimates.' Contrary
to analyst estimates, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter stated that 'the
potential exists that Monday's high marked a significant top.' Since April, the
broad market (NYSEArca: TWM - News)
dropped as much as 17%. In March 2009, with the Dow below 7000 and the S&P
below 700, analysts lowered their earnings forecasts from $113 in April 2008 to
$40. On March 2nd, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter sent out a Trend Change
Alert and recommended to buy long and leveraged long ETFs such as the Ultra
Financial (NYSEArca: UYG - News)
and Ultra S&P 500 ProShares (NYSEArca: SSO
- News).
If you care to know, analysts estimate that earnings for the S&P 500 will
exceed their 2006 all-time high, in 2011. Based on that assumption, stocks are
cheap. How about that for flawed math?
4+4=9 or Technical Sell Signals = Higher Stock Prices The 200-day moving average (MA) is one
of the best-known technical indicators, as it provides delineation between
technically healthy and sick stocks. On May 20, the S&P closed below the
200-day MA for the first time since late 2007. Every attempt to rally and stay
above it has since failed miserably. On July 2, the 50-day MA for the S&P
dropped below its 200-day MA for the first time since late 2007. The same holds
true for mid caps (NYSEArca: MDY - News),
small caps (NYSEArca: IWM - News)
and nearly all individual sector indexes. For good reason, this is called a
Death Cross. Over the past ten years, the death cross has been accurate 75% of
the time, with a 19.72% average return on six winning trades and 6.95% average
return on two losing trades. In addition to the Death Cross, there are two head
and shoulders patterns, one in the making for over 10 years, and the other has
the breadth suggestive of a major meltdown (see September ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter).
5+5=11 or Overvalued Stocks = Higher Prices As explained above, based on overly
optimistic earnings estimates, analysts believe that stocks are cheap. Rather
than basing a future outlook on estimates, it makes sense to use facts as a
foundation for any outlook. Why add an extra variable to what's already an
unpredictable market? Ask Yale Professor Robert Shiller, who's done extensive
research on the subject of valuations, and he'll tell you stocks are
historically overvalued based on the current P/E ratio. Compare today's P/E
ratio with the P/E ratio seen at major market bottoms, and you'll see that
stocks are overvalued by more than 50%. Another gauge that doesn't lie is
dividend yields. A company's dividends are a direct reflection of cash flow and
financial health. The current yield is 2.65% for the Dow and 2.05% for the
S&P. Even value funds like the iShares Russell 1000 Value (NYSEArca: IWD
- News)
yield only a measly 2.08%. Dividends are close to their all-time low set in
1999 (we know what happened then). This means that companies are cash strapped
or overvalued. Looking at a long-term chart of dividend yields plotted against stock
prices shows clearly that markets don't bottom until dividends skyrocket. Just
as ice doesn't thaw unless the temperature moves above 32 degrees, the economy
won't thaw and show signs of life unless P/E ratios drop to, and dividend
yields rise to, levels seen at major market tops. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
includes a detailed analysis of four valuation metrics, along with short-term
target ranges for stocks and the ultimate market bottom. Based on simple math
and common sense, the July lows are certainly in danger. But it doesn't stop
there.’
DOES HISTORY REPEAT, RHYME OR JUST HAVE COINCIDENCES? Lounsbury: ‘… Has anything of economic utility resulted? I have
not found it. And counter to the effect of the dot.com collapse, the credit
bubble collapse may not have stripped out some of the speculative income
excesses. Wall Street bonuses are back to pre-crisis levels and there has been
no "claw-back" of ill-gotten gains from the pirates who seized the
economic ship. In fact, the pirates are still in command of the ship and are
still under full sail. Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum! From my first Treasury report:
… the problem was that our systems,
especially in finance and health care, are too heavily focused on pay for
transactions rather than pay for outcomes. I didn’t have the presence of mind
to bring instant gratification into the discussion, but that would have
certainly made my thought process clearer.
I don't think this created any waves,
but I will continue to wail in the wilderness about how compensation formulas
contribute to and compound the structural problems in our financial system. So,
back to the earnings chart that started this discussion. In view of what has
been discussed here I believe we will find that history, in this instance, will
at least rhyme, if not repeat exactly. Structural economic problems are
sufficiently similar for the two eras that I expect we will see some form of
recurrence of events 5 and 6 [Depression] …’
DISMANTLING BULLISH ARGUMENTS …
Bull Market Argument #1 - Stocks are Cheap Even though the economy is in the
worst shape since the Great Depression, economists at large believe that stocks
(NYSEArca: IVV - News)
are cheap … We've previously analyzed the folly of relying on projected
earnings forecasts and therefore, will only pose two more facts as food for
thought before moving onto the next argument. Even if earnings are
positive the market can decline, as we've seen with the 9% and 17% declines in
January and May. Most of the earnings growth has been fueled by cost-cutting,
not organic growth. What does that tell us about the sustainability of growth?
Bull Market Argument #2 - Cash on the Sidelines Cash on the sideline is viewed as
bullish because, theoretically, it can be used to buy stocks and drive up
prices. Some distinguish between corporate cash and retail cash on the
sidelines. Many forget that for every dollar in cash, there is a debt that has
to be repaid. According to the Federal Reserve, nonfinancial firms' debt totals
$7.2 trillion, the highest level ever. As far as retail investors go, the
current debt-income ratio is at 126%. The pre-bubble average was around 70%. To
get back to the pre-bubble norm, about $6 trillion worth of debt would have to
be eliminated. Retail money in money market funds is currently around the same
level as it was in 2006/2007. Is that bullish?
Debunking the Bond Myth No doubt there's been a migration from investment dollars
out of stocks and into bonds and gold… Bonds - especially corporate high yield
bonds - could soon assume the role real estate had in 2006. Many thought that
real estate (NYSEArca: IYR - News)
will always go up. As it turns out, real estate prices can move in both
directions, as can bond prices.
A Closer Look at Gold What about gold? … The previous cash level low was
recorded in August of 2007. We know what happened then. Rather than focusing on
the sideline cash, perhaps we should focus on the trillions of dollars still in
the market. More selling means lower prices.
'Stocks are Cheap' vs. Realistic Valuations Using projected earnings to determine
the markets real value is like counting chickens that have yet to hatch. Things
change, and as studies have shown, analysts and economist are usually the last
to discern that change. Market forecasting based on solid facts is tricky
enough, but basing forecasts on thin assumptions usually translates into
financial suicide… Stock market tops when P/E ratios are high, dividend yields
are low and mutual fund cash reserves are low. Over the past year, we have seen
P/E ratios at an all-time high, dividend yields close to their 1999 low, and
mutual fund cash levels at an all-time low. In addition, we have also seen
investor optimism soar to levels reminiscent of 2000 and 2007…
Drudgereport:
NEW LOW
FOR O: GALLUP DAILY SHOWS OBAMA 41% APPROVE, 52% DIS...
'Allahu
Akbar!' Iran test fires new missile...
'Al-Qaida
prepares for Israel-Iran war'...
US
Assures Israel Nuclear Iran Isn't Imminent...
Israel
tells UN it will stop new Gaza aid flotilla...
Lebanon
refuses to bow to warning...
CHICAGOLAND:
ShoreBank Closed by FDIC...
...strong
ties to Obama administration
USA
DEBT: $13,310,379,000,000.00
$44,000 PER CITIZEN...
NEW
JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE TO 500,000...
Highest
level in 9 months...
CBO:
DEFICIT 9.1% OF GDP... DEVELOPING...
Homeowners
Expect Home Values to Fall More...
Celente:
Stock Market Crash Before End of 2010 Gerald Celente believes that the stock market will crash before
the end of 2010 , gold will soar.
Fed
Official Admits the Fed Starts Boom/Bust Cycles There are all kinds of
things awry with this article…
Bulls Scatter ... Again ‘At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we wanted to once again
highlight the lack of conviction among investors and advisors in the current
market environment. Following the July rally, bullish sentiment based on the Investors
Intelligence weekly survey jumped to its highest level since May. Then
last week, the S&P 500 dropped more than 3% and the bulls scattered. In
this week's survey, bullish sentiment declined 12% for its largest weekly
decline since the flash crash…’
Know Your Indicators: Hindenburg Omen ‘…Below we outline the five criteria (taken from Zero Hedge) that need to be satisfied in order
for the indicator to be triggered. They are:
Another Round of POMO: Dave's Daily ‘…Thursday we'll get another round of Uncle Sugar's
special blend via more POMO (Permanent Open Market Operations). This private
label brew will go directly to the Primary Dealers (dba: Da Boyz) who will use
it to trade as before…’
More Fuel For a Bigger Decline , On Tuesday
August 17, 2010, 4:18 pm EDT A
French proverb states that a fault denied is committed twice. Denial, as
blissful as it is for the time being, does not serve as protection against the
inevitable.A perfect example of denial is the May 6 flash crash. Neither Wall
Street, the financial media, nor investors wanted to see the danger of such a
meltdown beforehand. After it happened, they were in denial about the cause.
Denial is Bliss
The
simple truth is that the market was ripe for a major correction. A few weeks
before the flash crash, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted the extremely
low CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio and warned: 'It seems that only a minority of
equity positions are equipped with a put safety net. Once prices do fall and
investors do get afraid of incurring losses, the only option is to sell.
Selling, results in more selling. This negative feedback loop usually results
in rapidly falling prices.' As it turns out, there was no clumsy-fingered
trader at fault for the decline that reduced the Dow (DJI: ^DJI) by more than
1,000 points in one day. If it had been a simple error, stocks wouldn't have
fallen to new lows after the flash crash. If it had been a simple error, the
S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) wouldn't still be trading below
the flash crash close.
The Reality of Denial
But,
that's the power of denial. Since the April 26 highs, the S&P has been
moving from lower highs to lower lows. On July 1, the S&P had arrived at
1,011. The ensuing rally lifted the markets by nearly 10%, but failed to push
the S&P and Nasdaq above the July 21 highs. The July 21 highs failed to
move above the May 12 highs. The May 12 highs were significantly short of the
April 26 highs. Despite the obvious downtrend, investors get as excited about
dead end bounces as ever. This is not a bullish omen. In fact, according to the
ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter's technical analysis, the steepest leg of the
decline is still ahead. Before we look at more technical details, let's browse
through some fundamental factors that reflect the current state of denial:
Don't Worry About Bank
Failures
111
banks were added to the FDIC's failed bank list thus far in 2010. At the same
time last year, only 76 banks had been shut down. According to an FDIC press
release, Metro Bank of Dade County had total assets of $442.3 million and total
deposits of $391.3 million. Assets outweigh liabilities by $51 million. That's
good, but apparently not accurate. According to the FDIC's press release,
closing Metro Bank will cost the FDIC $67.6 million. Why? Because an accounting
trick allows banks to artificially inflate their assets. The accounting trick
allowed this small bank to overstate its assets by about 25%. Other banks on
the FDIC list overstated their assets by more than 50%. Imagine the size of the
problem, considering that the four biggest banks (NYSEArca: KBE
- News)
of the country have about $7.5 trillion in combined assets. We should also
point out that none of those losses technically affect earnings, at least not
yet (for a detailed analysis refer to the June issue of the ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter).
Don't Worry About Falling
Real Estate
The
National Association of Home Builders reported that its monthly reading of
builder's sentiment about the housing market sank to 14, the lowest level since
March 2009. Unlike other economic indicators, this index is taken from builders
that have their finger on the pulse of Main Street and is forward looking.
Despite the rally in equities (NYSEArca: VTI
- News)
and real estate (NYSEArca: IYR - News),
homebuilders (NYSEArca: XHB - News)
never really saw light at the end of the tunnel.
Don't Worry About
Foreclosures
According
to RealtyTrac, more than 1 million American households are likely to lose their
homes to foreclosure this year. This is about 10 times as high as during an
average year. 25% of the U.S. household sector has a sub-600 FICO score. Yet,
Fannie Mae is offering financing to first-time buyers who only have a $1,000
down-payment. Nearly $150 billion have been spent to keep the doors of Fannie,
Freddie and company open. Does it make sense to artificially extend the
life of a patient destined to die? In the case of Fannie, politicians seem to
think that lending more money and ultimately creating more toxic assets will
solve the problems. Even a third grader understands the irony of that concept.
Denial is alive and well.
Don't Worry About Bankrupt
States
States
are in trouble. The bigger the state, the bigger the trouble it seems.
California has a $1.8 trillion economy. If CA was a country, its economy would
be the seventh biggest in the world, bigger than Russia. But, CA has no money.
CNN reports that as many as 200,000 state workers in CA could see their pay
scale slashed to minimum wage, if orders from the governor's office are
followed. You don't need to be one of the 200,000 to know that is bad. To go
from state salary to minimum wage is a huge drop.
Don't Worry About Falling
Prices
Look
around and you see a general downtrend develop: U.S. stocks (NYSEArca: IWB
- News),
international stocks (NYSEArca: EFA - News)
and emerging market stocks (NYSEArca: EEM
- News).
The same applies to commodities (NYSEArca: DBC
- News),
real estate prices (NYSEArca: RWR - News)
and consumer goods. The above-mentioned 'don't worries' all contribute to the
deflationary spiral (see image below for a visual). Unemployment remains high
because businesses have no pricing power. This leads to lower income, default
foreclosures, and ultimately even higher unemployment. Even Bernanke knows,
there is no easy fix to a deflationary cycle. Once engrained, it feeds on
itself. [chart]
Don't Worry About Death
Crosses
A death cross is one of the most powerful technical indicators. It occurs when the shorter simple moving average (SMA) crosses below the longer SMA. Over the last few weeks we saw literally dozens of such death crosses. Most notable was the S&P, Dow Jones and Nasdaq experiencing not only a death cross created by the 50 and 200-day SMA, but also courtesy of the 10 and 40-week SMA. Despite the rally from the July lows, the sell signal triggered by the various death crosses remained active. The fact that the Dow Jones was the only major index to rally above the June 21 highs provides an additional bearish non-confirmation. Over the past ten years, the buy/sell action triggered by the SMA crosses has a success rate of 75% - 100%. Winning trades outperformed losing trades by a ratio of at least 3:1. In investing, those are not the kind of odds you want to bet against. In other words, it's time to face reality and abandon denial. Leading up to the April highs, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted a pinnacle of denial which was reflected by investors' outright enthusiasm about stocks. At a time when approximately 8 of 10 investment advisors and newsletter writers were bullish on stocks, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted: 'The message conveyed by the composite bullishness is unmistakably bearish. The pieces are in place for a major decline.' Since April 26, the major indexes dropped as much as 17%. Despite the recent rally, this seems to have been only the first installment of a significant decline. This decline is now in progress. In fact, the August issue of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter explains the one chart-pattern that explains why the next leg down will be strong and powerful. A British Historian noted decades ago that a wise person does at once what a fool does at last. Both do the same thing; only at different times. Will you get out of the markets way in time, or too late?
Here’s a new piece of the dismally murky puzzle which belies
a previous raison d’etre for rally: Greek
Bonds Slump As Austerity Backfires, Country Enters “Death Spiral”, And The
Violent End Game Approaches . Previously, Walmart same store sales were actually down (overseas
results were up), and, think about it. Isn’t Walmart, as essentially an
american based sales agent of china products a ‘contrarian indicator’ for the
the u.s.; that is , hasn’t Walmart’s rise coincided with american main street’s
demise. Similarly, fraudulent wall street high frequency churn and earn
programmed trade scams among many other
frauds as yet unprosecuted has heralded the death knell for american
business and the economy, generally. Old news at best and, that ‘not bad as expected, better than expected dog
don’t hunt no more’! ‘YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]:
… Retailers were also strong. As a group retailers climbed 1.8%. Discount
retail giant and Dow component Wal-Mart (WMT 51.02, +0.61) was
a solid performer on the back of in-line earnings and an improved
forecast. Home improvement retailer and
fellow Dow component Home Depot (HD 28.31, +0.93) had a more positive influence over
retailers. It posted better-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter, but
issued a rather mixed forecast. A smaller-than-expected increase in housing
starts during July didn't do anything to derail the stock this session. Housing
starts for July increased 1.7% month-over-month to an annualized rate of
546,000 units, which is less than the rate of 555,000 units that had been
widely anticipated. Building permits for July fell 3.1% month-over-month to an
annualized rate of 565,000, which is below the rate of 573,000 that had been
expected…’ But, just a push of the computer programmed trade button and off we go,
reality / valuation / economics be damned. In real security analysis (very
simplified / summarized), as opposed to the continued frauds on wall street,
one must begin with the largest and most significant aggregate (a simple word
picture / analogy: ‘rising tide lifts all boats’). If you get this right, the
probabilities in your favor are substantially enhanced. From there, you want
leading industries, and leading companies within said leading industries
(again, larger aggregates then picks, to enhance probabilities, not guarantees,
in your favor). Your time frame, 1-3-5 yrs tops for projections, (including
income statement/EPS, balance sheet, and applying an appropriate P/E – a
detailed, multi-faceted approach beyond what could be described in this
summary); and, that’s all they are, projections. Beyond that time frame, your
guess. On fraudulent wall street, every day, though already discounted in large
part (6-8 mos, approx.), the market spins, churns, and with lightning fast
computerized high-frequency trade programs commissions in huge volumes like no
other time in financial history when real valuation meant something, with no
net economic value added, but very lucrative to the frauds on wall street,
which ultimately is a net detriment to the economy / the nation /and other
industries as we’ve seen and as described elsewhere on this site and in these
posts http://albertpeia.com
. Preposterously, they even sometimes refer to seasonal factors as if hearing
them for the first time and ‘explaining’ an up move (almost invariably already
discounted). Today, they shrugged off the deepening economic reality despite
the election year frothing / manipulations. This
is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression.
The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market.
This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes
with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and
sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato
scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and
otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et
als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. ].
Are You Ready
For How Bad It Will Get? Graham
Summers | ‘There
are numerous components in the latest GDP number that are extremely suspect. The vast majority of investors are going to
be taken to the cleaners.
I realize this view is far from the consensus. Even those who are in the bear
camp aver that the Stimulus did in fact bring us out of recession at least
temporarily.
However,
I would strongly contend that the recovery was in fact non-existent for the
following reasons:
1. The Government data used to validate
the recovery (GPD, unemployment, etc) is clearly massaged if not bordering on
outright propaganda
2. We are in fact in a depression and
the “recovery” was simply a bounce in economic activity taking place within the
context of a larger economy contraction
Regarding #1, every Government data
point used in promoting the “recovery” had some degree of fudging in it. Let’s
consider GDP for instance.
There are numerous devious tactics used
to overstate GDP growth, however, the most obvious gimmick the BLS uses is
overstating GPD growth in the present and then revising it lower in the
subsequent quarters.’
Kaufman on High Frequency Trading ‘Sen. Ted Kaufman (D., Del.) has been banging the drum on the need for
regulatory changes to high frequency trading for a while. His latest
thoughts on the matter take the form of a letter to SEC Chairwoman Mary Schapiro
urging — among other things — major high-frequency trading firms be
required to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Dow Jones Newswires’ Jacob Bunge reports:…’
Deceptive
Economic Statistics: While the economists lied the US economy died Paul Craig Roberts | The bought-and-paid-for-economists got all the
media forums for a decade. While they lied, the US economy died.
Manufacturing,
housing sectors exhibit diverging fortunes (Washington Post) I’d say understatement but I truly don’t
know what this headline means juxtaposed with ‘fortunes’.
Google
Yanks “Kill The Web” Article That Warned Of Internet Takeover Having at
first appeared as normal, our earlier article about Google’s plan to kill the
web has been completely de-listed from Google News. This is completely
unprecedented and underscores how keen Google is to prevent people from finding
out that it is a CIA-NSA front that is preparing to completely end the Internet
as we know it with the Verizon net-neutrality killing deal.
Drudgereport:
NEW LOW
FOR O: GALLUP DAILY SHOWS OBAMA 41% APPROVE, 52% DIS...
NEW
JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE TO 500,000...
Highest
level in 9 months...
CBO:
DEFICIT 9.1% OF GDP... DEVELOPING...
Homeowners
Expect Home Values to Fall More...
Death of
the 'McMansion': Era of Huge Homes Is Over...
Bankruptcies
Reach Nearly 5-Year High...
REPORT:
China targets U.S. troops with arms buildup...
Military
power growing...
Pentagon
warning...
Risky
game on the high seas...
How
long can America fend off the dragon?
'Without
a revolution, Americans are history'...
From Good to Mediocre ‘Through last Friday, 2,127 US companies had reported quarterly
numbers this earnings season. What started out as a strong earnings season is
going out with a whimper (earnings season ends tomorrow with Wal-Mart's report)…’
High Probability for Lower Market Prices Ahead ‘…Economic numbers being what they are (very poor), we
should expect a downward revision of second quarter GDP to 1.5% from the
originally disappointing number of 2.4%. As more data is being released it is
apparent that we are witnessing even further deterioration here in the third
quarter…We may have reached a tipping point where many are tired of others
being the benefactors of taxpayer money …’
Gold Providing Safety During Market Downturn ‘ … The death cross occurs when the 50
day moving average crosses the 200 day moving average on the downside. These
patterns, when combined with other technical indicators can predict major
market downturns…THE ODDS OF A LONG TERM DOWNTREND ARE
BECOMING HIGHLY PROBABLE. THESE SIGNALS COULD POSSIBLY INDICATE THE START OF A
TWELVE TO EIGHTEEN MONTH DOWN CYCLE. Gold, on the other hand, has shown
great relative strength despite the general markets correcting and negative
sentiment about the economy from Washington…’
Will
Quantitative Easing By The Federal Reserve Unleash Economic Hell? The Economic Collapse | Most of the folks populating Congress are so
incompetent that they should not even be hired to mop the floors of a Dairy
Queen.
China
surpasses Japan as world's No. 2 economy
(Washington Post) [ As
if we didn’t see that coming! ]
HOW TO BEAR MARKET PROOF YOUR PORFOLIO , On Friday
August 13, 2010, ‘… The 22 trading days following the April 26
market highs erased eight months worth of gains. Bear markets move much quicker
than bull markets.
Rule #1: Better too Early than too Late
When preparing for a bear market (we'll discuss in a
moment why we have been preparing for a bear market), it is prudent to start
early. Anyone who sold their long positions as early as September last year
would be in a better position than the buy-and hold crowd that is still
clinging to their holdings.
Rule #2: Don't Trust Wall Street and the Media
By now, even the mainstream media is sensing that
something might not be quite right with the market's performance. However,
there is still hope that the second half of the year will get a lift from
positive earning results. Before you bet your money on that line of reasoning,
consider the picture the media painted days within the April 2010 market top.
April 19, 2010 'America is back - The remarkable tale of
an economic turnaround' – Newsweek
'Recovery tilting to V-shape as profits prompts growth revision' - Bloomberg
April 25, 2010: 'U.S. stocks cheapest since 1990 on
analyst estimates' – Bloomberg
'Technical Analysts see room to roll' - Wall Street Journal
April 27, 2010 'Greece contagion fears unfounded' -
Reuters
May 3, 2010: 'Manufacturing in U.S. grows at fastest pace
since 2004 as recovery gains traction' - Bloomberg
Over the past two and a half months, the S&P
(NYSEArca: SPY - News) and Dow (NYSEArca: DIA - News) have lost as much as 17%. A 20% loss is
considered the mark of a new bear market. In essence, we are only one bad day
away from the next bear. Of course, throughout the massive bear market rally
from the March 2009 lows, which the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
predicted via the March 2, 2009 Trend Change Alert, the newsletter maintained
that it was only a bear market trap which would fool a majority of investors.
On April 16 it stated that 'Most bulls have no clue why they are bullish except
for the fact that they feel the need to play the momentum game. Sounds like
2000 and 2007 all over again. The message conveyed by the composite bullishness
is unmistakably bearish.'
Rule #3: Don't Underestimate Cash
In a period of falling prices, cash or cash equivalents
like short term Treasuries (NYSEArca: SHY - News) maintain your purchasing power -
long-term Treasuries (NYSEArca: TLT - News) are interest rate sensitive and may move
faster than you think. When stocks fall and you are able to maintain your
purchasing power, you are able to buy stocks at a discount. In essence, cash
offers a positive return in periods of falling prices. Additionally, or
alternatively, investors may choose to buy short or leveraged short ETFs such
as the Short S&P 500 ProShares (NYSEArca: SH - News), UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares
(NYSEArca: TWM - News) UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares
(NYSEArca: SDS - News), Short Financial ProShares (NYSEArca: SEF -News), Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3x Shares
(NYSEArca: FAZ - News) and many more.
Rule #4: Don't Procrastinate
On May 14, the ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter predicted that the S&P (NYSEArca: IVV - News) will fall through the important 1,040
resistance level. Aside from a small cluster of resistances (one being round
number resistance), a break below 1,040 opened the door wide for significantly
lower prices. We mentioned above that we've been preparing for a reemerging
bear market even before the April highs. Why? Simply put, stocks are
overvalued. How can that be? One of the above headlines read that U.S. stocks
are cheapest since 1990, at least according to analyst projections. The key
word is projections. Analysts project operating earnings for the S&P to
clock in at $94.83 in 2011. This is higher than the 2007 peak of $91.47. That's
right, despite record high unemployment, a European (NYSEArca: VGK - News) debt crisis, a 17% U.S. market
correction, and all the other problems economists expect corporate profits will
exceed their 2007 all-time highs. Does that sound reasonable to you? Keep in
mind that projected earnings are just that - projected. They can and will change.
In fact, analysts have a reputation of following the trend. In April 2008,
analysts predicted earnings of $113. After cutting its forecast to $53, Goldman
Sachs cut its earnings forecast to $40 in March 2009. As we know today, stocks
rallied, and actual 2009 earnings came in at $56.87. The list goes on, but the
simple message is that analysts tend to be overly optimistic before the fall
and overly pessimistic before a rally. Right now they are overly optimistic.
The conclusion is easy.
Rule #5: Know who to Trust
Even when basing the current P/E ratio on overly
optimistic estimates, it is still far away from the P/E ratios seen at historic
market bottoms. The same holds true for dividend yields. A look at various
valuation measures shows that the market is overvalued by much more than just
10 or 20%. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter provides a detailed analysis of four
valuation metrics with a near spotless track record of historic
accuracy…’
No Exit, Stage Left or Right
Peter shiff ‘… Those who fear a double dip
recession are justified in their concerns, but they are also missing the big
picture. The 2008 recession never ended. It was merely interrupted by
trillions of dollars of stimulus that purchased GDP “growth” with borrowed
money. But as the bills come due, GDP should now contract … After decades
of abuse, it’s time for the Fed to take make a dramatic exit, because the US
economy can’t take it anymore.’
Capital Controls: The Final
Phase in the Great Looting of America Eric Blair | Capital controls are the
next big event in the government-banking-oligarchy’s great looting of America.
Fed Leads America “To The Brink
Of Collapse” When even the New York Times and CNN are admitting that the
United States faces not only a double-dip recession but potentially a new great
depression, any alarm bells that have not been rung should now be sounding
loudly.
Bailouts Went To Foreign Banks:
Congressional Report Confirms What We Already Knew A Congressional Oversight
Panel issued today highlights the fact that large portions of the Treasury’s
$700 billion bailout fund have gone straight into the coffers of foreign banks,
a fact that we knew months ago, but is only now being officially recognised.
Marc Faber: Protect Your
Property with High Voltage Fences, Barbed Wire, Booby Traps, Military Weapons
and Dobermans Investment guru and publisher of The Gloom, Boom and Doom
report, Marc Faber, regularly discusses investment strategies for protecting
and building wealth during times of economic distress.
Warnings:
Social Security at risk
(Washington Post) [ Not this again! It bears repeating, that was always
a bad idea and there was a plethora of reasons set forth on my site as to why
the social security privatization plan being shilled by moron war criminal
dumbya bush on behalf of the wall street frauds was an exceedingly bad idea.
Indeed, as defacto insolvent as america / the social security system is, the
nation and system would have been wiped out by privatization debacle. Talk
about too big to, but still failed. It was a bad idea then, and though
accusations may fly as to fear mongering, the reality of the venality attendant
to such a preposterous course on behalf of the wall street frauds requires
vigilance, scrutiny, and discourse concerning even the remote possibility of
such a fool-hearty betrayal of the citizenry of the nation. As such, as off the
mark as wobama has almost invariably been, he’s on the mark on this. ]ANALYSIS | Obama says GOP wants to privatize program, but
liberals see a different threat.
Foreclosures
surge 9 percent in July (Washington
Post) Those glass-half-full frauds on wall street along with the administration
will be cheering this unequivocally bad news with a dubious retort as ‘used
home sales will rise’ … riiiight! Anything you say …
Stocks
dip for third straight day (Washington
Post) [Investor fears? How ‘bout reality. Even an essentially non-business site
as Drudge has the pulse of this pervasive realization that ‘those dogs of happy
days are here again don’t hunt no more’. Check the heads: DRUDGEREPORT: America Is
'Bankrupt Mickey Mouse Economy'...
WIRE:
USA 'Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It'...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT HITS RECORD HIGH
JOBLESS
CLAIMS JUMP TO HIGHEST SINCE FEB...
California
can't pay bills -- may use IOUs for August payments...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
Homes
lost to foreclosure up 6% from last year...
Grim
Voter Mood Turns Grimmer...
and Economists
Herald New Great Depression The world is
currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression,
according to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others
now forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.
Peter Schiff: “We’re in the
Early Stages of a Depression” The Motley Fool | Four years and the worst
recession since the Great Depression later, Schiff stands alone again with a
bleaker diagnosis for the economy: an inflationary depression. My take: This is a global
depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up
move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has
been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with
great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell
into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam /
fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will
not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are
criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed
Pearlstein: The
FCC and the bandwidth wars (Washington
Post) [The internet has been among the few areas of growth and american
prominence, at least at this point in time. Clearly, as with the throng that
heralded in NAFTA, the self-interested voices of ie., google, verizon, etc.,
are similarly anathema to the greater good (as was NAFTA). Berners-Lee spoke
against such parochialism in no uncertain terms, much as did Ross Perot on
NAFTA and history has proven Perot correct as is so of the mind numbing
approaches of google, verizon, etc.] Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse (infowars.com) [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the
internet along with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously
opposed same and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and
verizon as mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc.,
operatives at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government
hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went public today with their “policy
framework” — better known as the pact to end the Internet as we know it.
AP Business
Highlights ‘Jobs picture dims as
unemployment claims rise WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy is looking bleaker
as new applications for jobless benefits rose last week to the highest level in
almost six months. It's a sign that hiring remains weak and employers may be
going back to cutting their staffs. Analysts say the increase suggests
companies won't be adding enough workers in August to lower the 9.5 percent
unemployment rate. First-time claims for jobless benefits edged up by 2,000 to
a seasonally adjusted 484,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. That's the
highest total since February. Analysts had expected claims to fall…’
Bearish Sentiment Falls to 14-Week Low [Talk about contrarian indicators!] AAII – ‘Bullish sentiment rose
9.4 percentage points to 39.8% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Despite the
size of the increase, the proportion of individual investors expecting stock
prices to rise over the next six months is only at a two-week high. The
historical average is 39%. Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices
will stay essentially flat over the next six months, fell 1.3 percentage points
to 30.1%. The historical average is 31%. Bearish sentiment, expectations that
stock prices will fall, dropped 8.1 percentage points to 30.1%. This is a
14-week low. The historical average is 30%. The survey period, Thursday through
Wednesday, needs to be taken into consideration when looking at these results.
Stock prices were essentially flat through most of this week's survey period
(with the obvious exception of yesterday), giving some investors hope that a
short-term bottom had been established. Though there were big changes in
bullish and bearish sentiment, both optimism and pessimism are close to their
historical averages. As a result, I would argue that individual investors' confidence
in the market remains fragile…’
U.S.
trade deficit startles markets (Washington Post) [ Unexpectedly? I don’t
think so! And, I have my site, other references / links and posts to prove it;
and, what’s more, I’m not alone. After all, what are NAFTAs for anyway.
However, I also must candidly admit I don’t frequent the mainstream blather /
propaganda that includes the ‘money-honeys’ (when the messenger’s more
important than the message, problems and distortions are bound to follow) and
their ilk, etc.. NBR’s
about it and even they have their pressures (I don’t consider the Washington
Post mainstream in the pejorative sense of the word, with a rich journalistic
history to back that up, all things considered) ]. Unexpectedly bad news from
three continents reinforces fears that global recovery is faltering.
Obama signs $26 billion jobs
bill (WP) [I feel compelled to
comment here that even using capital hill math one would be hard-pressed to
justify $26 billion taxpayer / treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save
300,000 state / local government jobs! After all, the nation is defacto bankrupt!
I think the former Soviet Union would have done the same.]
ACCORDING TO TECHNICAL INDICATORS, MELTDOWN IS
POSSIBLE A
SOLID TRACK RECORD An analysis
of the SMA crossover buy/sell signals triggered for the S&P over the past
10 days shows that six of the eight signals (75%) were correct. ..LAGGING
BUT ACCURATE Many dismiss
the 200-day or other SMAs as lagging indicators. Although an indicator may be
lagging it doesn't mean it's incorrect or should be dismissed… Even though a
lagging indicator, the rain does confirm that a storm is coming. A
PRO-ACTIVE APPROACH You'd expect Wall Street and the
financial media to be the financial weather man and warn you of upcoming
storms. Unfortunately, that is not so. Leading up to the April 2010 recovery
highs, Wall Street and the media proclaimed the skies are clear, 'sunny
throughout the year' was their weather forecast. Only after investors got
drenched, did Wall Street recommend pulling out the umbrella. Sure enough, as
soon as the umbrellas came out, stocks switched into rally mode and the sky
cleared up. Unlike Wall Street, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned of
the brewing storm while it was still sunny. On April 16, the newsletter warned
that 'historically, there has rarely been a more pronounced sell signal ...
When consumers spend, they do so with credit cards. Visa and Master Card both
got hit with a death cross. It's just a matter of time until the discretionary
sector follows. WAIT, THERE IS MORE …High copper
prices are reflective of high demand and a humming economy. Lower copper prices
signal trouble ahead. On June 22, an ominous death cross visited copper's
chart. PUTTING THE ODDS IN YOUR FAVOR Investing is
a game of probabilities. While you always want to have the odds in your favor,
you never want to bet against the odds. Right now, the odds are piling up on
the bearish side of the ledger. Even though Wall Street is saying that the sky
has cleared up, 'meteorologists' with a better track record are warning of the
storm ahead. In fact, there is one rare chart formation that strongly suggests
the onset of a 2008-like decline, a development that's certainly supported by
the number of death crosses spanning a variety of markets. The August issue of
the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter includes a detailed short, mid and
long-term forecast, along with the one chart that tells the market's story and
true bearish potential.
Californians’ income falls for
first time since WWII Sacramento
Bee | The personal incomes of
Golden State workers fell by that amount in 2009 compared with the previous
year.
Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the internet along
with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously opposed same
and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and verizon as
mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc., operatives
at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went
public today with their “policy framework” — better known as the pact to end
the Internet as we know it.
DRUDGEREPORT:
America Is
'Bankrupt Mickey Mouse Economy'...
WIRE:
USA 'Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It'...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT HITS
RECORD HIGH
JOBLESS
CLAIMS JUMP TO HIGHEST SINCE FEB...
California
can't pay bills -- may use IOUs for August payments...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
Homes
lost to foreclosure up 6% from last year...
Grim
Voter Mood Turns Grimmer...
Claims
of Afghan civilian deaths spark protest...
Military
sees heavier fighting in fall...
PAPER:
10 reasons why Obama presidency is in meltdown...
GALLUP:
Even the Poor Are Abandoning Obama; Approval Under 50%...
Obama
abolishes White House position dedicated to transparency...
Michelle
Obama popularity falls...
UPDATE:
Suspected serial killer arrested in Atlanta...
Attempting
to flee to israel … to be with kindred spirits ...
MOB
RUSH FOR FED AID DRAWS RIOT POLICE
DOW drops
265...
Feds
rethink policies that encourage home ownership...
Obama: $3
Billion More in Aid for Unemployed...
US
posts widest trade gap in 20 months...
Q2 GDP Growth Could Be Revised To Just 1% After Trade Data...
PUMP:
FED TO BUY MORE DEBT...
DOWNGRADES
OUTLOOK...
US-backed
fighters in Iraq defect to al-Qaida... [Winning hearts and minds …
for Al Qaida … just one too many civilian deaths for no good reason at all ]
Republicans
Suggest Names for 'Second Stimulus' Bill...
'Where
do the bailouts end?' [I feel compelled to comment here that
even capital hill math would be hard-pressed to justify $26 billion taxpayer /
treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save 300,000 state / local
government jobs! After all, the nation is defacto bankrupt! ]
Gerald Celente On the Alex
Jones Show: Double Dip Depression Will Lead Us Into War The white shoe boys are
taking us into the worst depression in history.
Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the internet along
with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously opposed same
and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and verizon as
mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc., operatives
at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went
public today with their “policy framework” — better known as the pact to end
the Internet as we know it.
Economists
Herald New Great Depression The world is
currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression,
according to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others
now forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.
Riiiiight! That ‘no-longer looking’ dynamic that saves the day and the ue rate
at 9.5%. At this rate of progress, and according to their thinking and
manipulations, full employment at an unprecedented 0% unemployment is just
around the corner as everyone stops looking for the jobs no longer here, many
of which were sent overseas and which are not coming back owing to substantial
economic structural / financial shifts.
Jobs Report: Companies Slow to Hire ABC
News - Only about 8 percent of the 8.4 million jobs lost at the
peak of the recession have been recovered, leaving millions of Americans still
looking for work, according to an analysis by ABC News' Business Unit. Video: News Update: US
Unemployment Rate Holds at 9.5%, 71,000 Jobs Added in June SmarTrend News 71K more jobs not enough to dent unemployment rate The Associated Press
When perusing the headlines and the
following, I immediately thought ‘between Iraq and a hard place (Afghanistan
and america’s defacto bankruptcy)’:
Between a Rock and a Hard Place Jerry Slusiewicz ‘Everyone knows that being between a rock
and a hard place is not a good place to be. That is where the market is right
now. We continue to have terrible news in the housing sector. There is no
general economic recovery as of yet. Jobless claims continue to mount, while
net new jobs are not being created in a significant enough number to even sustain
the population growth (approximately 150,000 net new jobs per month needed). By
far the majority of economic reports for May, June, July, and now August, have
been worse than forecast. That includes home starts, home sales, home-builder
confidence, retail sales, auto sales, consumer confidence, durable goods
orders, manufacturing, jobs, etc. Yet the market rallies or barely goes down on
these bad reports. What gives? It seems that bad news is good news right now…
Stepping Aside Because I Can Always
Buy Back In Leigh Drogen ‘I sold
out of everything this morning, for a few reasons…First, breakouts don’t always
work and momentum stocks have a habit of ending their trends abruptly.
Second, …I can buy back in this afternoon if I change my mind (not likely). I
see more risk to the downside here than I do to the upside. …Third, the jobs
number tomorrow scares me. No, it doesn’t matter what the number is, we all
know it’s going to be bad, what matters is how the market reacts, and I have the
feel it’s not going to be good. Fourth, many of my oscillators are overbought
here.Fifth, and finally, I don’t like the fact that this rally has primarily
taken place on the back of the most beaten down sectors. …It all just doesn’t
pass the smell test for me. I’ve been successful at this not because I’m always
right, but because I know when I’m wrong and I’m willing to change course or
step aside. Right now, I’ll step aside.’
Were Unemployment Claims Really So 'Unexpected'?
WE’RE UNDERESTIMATING THE BEARISH POTENTIAL , August 3, 2010
’… Will Anything Stop the Market? Something Did
… At the same
time, the April numbers were lowered the second time by an additional 24,000
units, while May sales were revised lower by 33,000 units. To summarize, April
and May sales were reduced by 57,000 units. Therefore, June sales were 24%
above May sales. By the way, May sales were the lowest on record…
Temporary
Firehouse Closures Begin In Philadelphia CBS
3 | The
city of Philadelphia has started temporarily closing fire stations in order to
balance its budget.
Warning
Signs Suggest Market Headed for Another Collapse … One can find no shortage of fundamental or
mechanical theories explaining what might form the basis of a future financial
collapse published at Zero Hedge, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Nouriel Roubini or
Karl Denninger. In fact, I buy into a lot of the evidence presented by these
sources, and believe that one gains a better grasp of financial reality
spending 10 minutes with Zero Hedge than spending 2 weeks listening to the
mainstream financial media. It is laughable to compare the vacant drivel coming
out of Dennis Kneale to even one single article published by Tyler Durden or
Ryan Iskander…
1. HEAD &
SHOULDERS ON THE S&P 500, DOW JONES, AND NASDAQ …
2. BULLISH FLAG ON
THE VIX? We can’t have a massive spike in volatility without a coinciding
collapse in the equity markets …
3.
THE DEATH-CROSS ON THE S&P SUGGESTS THE 2009 TO 2010 RALLY MIGHT BE OVER
…
4. THE VOLUMELESS
RALLY & MUTUAL FUND OUTFLOWS
…
5. 1,000 POINT FLASH
CRASHES
…
6. BOND MARKET
DISTRUSTFUL OF THE RALLY
…
7. MARKET LEADERSHIP
IS WEAKENING
[chart] … ‘
Stocks' Late Push: Some
Optimism, Some Pessimism [Late
push … as in a constipated bowel movement … Come on! Another one of those push
the computer programmed trade button and off we go, reality / valuation /
economics be damned. In real security analysis (very simplified / summarized),
as opposed to the continued frauds on wall street, one must begin with the
largest and most significant aggregate (a simple word picture / analogy:
‘rising tide lifts all boats’). If you get this right, the probabilities in
your favor are substantially enhanced. From there, you want leading industries,
and leading companies within said leading industries (again, larger aggregates
then picks, to enhance probabilities, not guarantees, in your favor). Your time
frame, 1-3-5 yrs tops for projections, (including income statement/EPS, balance
sheet, and applying an appropriate P/E – a detailed, multi-faceted approach
beyond what could be described in this summary); and, that’s all they are,
projections. Beyond that time frame, your guess. On fraudulent wall street,
every day, though already discounted in large part (6-8 mos, approx.), the
market spins, churns, and with lightning fast computerized high-frequency trade
programs commissions in huge volumes like no other time in financial history
when real valuation meant something, with no net economic value added, but very
lucrative to the frauds on wall street, which ultimately is a net detriment to
the economy / the nation /and other industries as we’ve seen and as described
elsewhere on this site and in these posts http://albertpeia.com . Preposterously, they
even sometimes refer to seasonal factors as if hearing them for the first time
and ‘explaining’ an up move (almost invariably already discounted). Today, they
shrugged off the deepening economic reality despite the election year frothing
/ manipulations. This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market
in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in
a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national
decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the
wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and
disgorgement imposed. ].
Slowing economic rebound raises
unemployment fears (AP) [Wow! Talk about understatements!]
Marc Faber Questions if Dow
Could Hit 1,000 In the August edition of the ‘The Gloom, Boom
& Doom Report’ Marc Faber questions whether the Dow could hit 1,000 as predicted by Robert Prechter, based
on his interpretation of Elliot Waves, Fibonacci numbers and socioeconomic
trends. Prechter, who has written 13
books on finance (external link), believes
that the stock market is historically overvalued in terms of dividends and
earnings, because of a “great rise in positive social mood.” But the mood
changed in 2000 and the “trend toward negative social mood will lead to an
economic contraction,” according to Prechter. “Small bear markets lead to
recessions, big bear markets lead to depressions. The current bear market will
be the biggest in nearly 300 years, so the depression will be correspondingly
deep,” Prechter said.
Wall
St falls after weak outlooks drag (Reuters) U.S. stocks sagged in volatile
trading on Thursday after weak outlooks from technology companies and downbeat comments
from a Federal Reserve official gave investors little reason to buy.
Fed says some districts report slowing economy (Reuters)
Flaws of the European Stress Test … 'Bank stress test' became the magic phrase. Nothing calms fear
like a stress test that's labeled as rigorous. The stress test raises a few
very obvious questions: 1) Will it work? 2) Why was it needed in addition to a
$1 trillion aid package? 3) Is the stress test just a gimmick to appease
investors? The stress test is conducted by the London-based Committee of
European Banking Supervisors (CEBS). Ironically, the test has ignored the
majority of banks' holdings of sovereign debt. Sovereign debt concerns by the
so-called PIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain) triggered the
latest wave of financial problems. Ignoring sovereign debt in the Euro stress
test would be like ignoring toxic real estate assets in the U.S. 10%
Good - 90% Bad According to a Morgan Stanley survey, European banks hold about 90%
of their Greek government bonds in their banking books and 10% in their trading
books. The bonds in the banking book are generally held until maturity, the
bonds in the trading book are traded more frequently. According to a document
obtained by Bloomberg, the stress test assumes a loss of 23.1% on Greek debt,
14% on Portuguese bonds, 12.3% on Spanish debt, 4.7% on German debt, 10% on
U.K. debt, and 5.9% on French debt. However, the stress test only looks at the
bonds held in banks' trading books, which account for a mere 10% of Greek bond
holdings. Can that be called a stress test? Nouriel Roubini says that 'the
assumptions made about economic growth, about sovereign risk are not realistic
enough.' The fact that only seven banks failed the test with a combined
shortfall of $4.5 billion confirms the lax nature of the test. … The U.S. Bank Stress Test - A Nice Façade A closer look under the hood of
the U.S. bank stress test, however, shows that there's not much substance
behind the facade either. It was determined that the 19 tested U.S. banks need
to increase their balance sheets by $75 billion to meet the conditions of
what's termed the 'worst case scenario.' To a large extent, the $75 billion of
additional capital was financially engineered. Banks didn't have to actually
raise $75 billion. They were able to change the label of some of their assets
on their balance sheets. The government supported this practice via mandatory
convertible preferred shares (detailed analysis in May 2009 issue of the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter) …’
Moody's:
Regional banks on review for downgrade (AP)
Consumer
confidence dims (Reuters)
Job worries drove July U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest since
February, with one in six people expecting lower income in the next six months,
underscoring the precarious state of econo...
Global
steelmakers paint gloomy picture (Reuters)
US
bank failures in 2010 surpass 100
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. bank failures this year have surpassed a bleak
milestone of 100 as regulators shut down banks in Georgia, Florida, South
Carolina, Kansas, Nevada and Minnesota. The six bank seizures announced Friday
bring to 102 the failures so far in 2010. The pace of bank closures this year
is well ahead of that of last year, which saw a total 140 bank shuttered amid
the recession and mounting loan defaults …
On the Disconnect Between the Market and the Economy Michael Shulman:
(No recession helicopter ben) Bernanke Admits Major Policy Failures; Stocks Soar Darryl Montgomery What's wrong with this picture?
In his bi-annual testimony before Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke
admitted that after more than a year and a half of zero interest rates and $3
trillion in federal deficit spending since 2008, the best case
scenario for the U.S. economy is slow growth and high unemployment. The S&P
500 is up 2.5% so far this morning on this 'good' news. Bernanke's congressional testimony included the
following statements (emphasis added by me):
"Most [FOMC] participants viewed uncertainty
about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the
majority saw [at the June Fed meeting] the risks to growth as weighted to
the downside."
"Financial conditions--though much improved
since the depth of the financial crisis--have become less supportive of
economic growth in recent months."
"Many banks continue to have a large volume
of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight.
With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank
loans outstanding have continued to contract."
"After two years of job losses, private payrolls
expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this
year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially.
In all likelihood, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the
nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009."…
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Did Google Block “Barry
Soetoro” Search Term? Screenshots obtained by a Prison Planet reader suggest
that Google may have moved to de-list “Barry Soetoro” as a popular search term
shortly after it rose to the top of the Google Trends charts after yesterday’s
effort by radio talk show host Alex Jones to focus attention on Barack Obama’s
real name.
Feb
26, 2009 ... Bolton, the NEOCON gift that keeps on giving the
Repuglycans zero ... The problem with McCain was this. As a veteran
and a POW he get's high marks. ..... to get some treatment at the closest mental
health facility. ...
thinkprogress.org/2009/02/26/bolton-nukes-chicago/ -
Cached
- Similar
Aug
4, 2009 ... Bolton, like all neocons, doesn't understand that
there is ..... Of course, we all know it was BUSH who caused the problem
in the first place, right? .... they view the world in the light of their own mental
disorder, ...
thinkprogress.org/2009/08/.../bolton-north-korea-journalists/ - Cached
- Similar
Show
more results from thinkprogress.org
Dec
21, 2009 ... Re: Breaking: Neocon John Bolton Names Dick
Cheney "Conservati ... republicanism/conservatism is a mental
illness that is killing America and ... Problem is one side will
shamelessly try and stack the deck in their favor ...
crooksandliars.com › Blogs
› Logan
Murphy's blog - Cached
- Similar
Apr
17, 2007 ... On March 25, John Bolton was interviewed by BBC
Newsnight's Jeremy Paxman (video here). ... I think the real problem
was in not relying more on Iraqis. .... BTW, a mental giant, you are
not. The best thing to happen to ...
www.democrats.com › Blogs
› Bob
Fertik's blog - Cached
Bolton and his neo-con
crazies aren't setting the agenda anymore, ... And I do not mean the mental
condition of Mr Bolton and his fellow neocons. ...
www.lobelog.com/bolton-suggests-nuclear-attack-on-iran/ - Cached
- Similar
May
26, 2009 ... It's a special kind of mental illness. ... Bolton
has been derided as "the neocon's neocon" who "laps up
the hosannas of fellow ...
atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/.../dont-hold-your-breath-ambassador-bolton.html - Cached
Dec
4, 2006 ... Clyburn: E-Vote 'Hacked'; Rawl: 'Systemic Software Problems'
.... Add 'The Fall of the NeoCons: Bye Bye Bolton' to
Del.icio · Add 'The ... The Army's Lack of Mental Health Treatment for
Returning Troops" NEXT STORY » ...
www.bradblog.com/?p=3873 - Cached
30
posts - 4 authors - Last post: 21 hours ago
"Religion
is science for the mental ill" - Myself ... John Bolton
is a Bush neo con,,, obviously broke and needing the money. ...
www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1163684/pg2
New
article on darkpolitricks: Neocon Bolton Renews Call for Israel to
Bomb Iran http: darkpoltweeter (Dark Politricks RT): New article on
darkpolitricks: ...
www.wwnewsflash.com/bolton
· [PDF]
File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat - Quick
View
a sweeping diagnosis, it's clear that mental health has been a problem
within ...... Neocon icon John Bolton, Bush's abrasive former
Ambassador to the UN, ...
www.sf911truth.org/neocons.pdf
On
Facebook: Israeli soldier posed with bound Arab (AP)
China
focuses on military might (Washington Post) [And the big difference here (between them
and defacto bankrupt america) is that ‘THEY CAN AFFORD IT’ and are not fighting
nation-bankrupting, anti-american-sentiment-creating wars all over the
place.] Nation is quickly modernizing
forces, extending influence deep into Pacific and Indian oceans.
Afghans
still see U.S. as bad guy (Washington Post
) [Riiiiight! Sounds like a plan … winning hearts and minds throughout the
world … great for exports also as such ‘won hearts and minds’ just love to buy
american.] American, NATO forces retain blame for civilian deaths despite spike
from insurgent violence.
Preparing
for World War III, Targeting Iran Humanity is at a dangerous crossroads.
War preparations to attack Iran are in “an advanced state of readiness”. Hi
tech weapons systems including nuclear warheads are fully deployed.
Pentagon tells WikiLeaks: "Do right thing" (Reuters) [Great
advice … if only the endless war, military complex based pentagon could take
it!] The Pentagon demanded on Thursday that whistle-blower web site WikiLeaks
immediately hand over about 15,000 secret Afghan war records it had not yet
published and erase material it had alrea…
Oliver
Stone has apologized for his anti-Semitic rant, but is the damage already done.
What damage? To perceived reality as opposed to reality? When you look at
america’s pro-israel, self-destructive, contra-indicated policies, including
the hands off policy vis-ŕ-vis fraudulent wall street, you see the truth to
what he says which is what so many astute individuals are already thinking /
realizing. How can people continue to ignore the truth, to their own detriment
Think about it. Do you really think he would risk the typical onslaught if the
same weren’t true? ‘Director Oliver
Stone has been forced to make a grovelling apology over an anti-Semitic
outburst. The double Academy Award winner claimed that the Russians suffered
more during the Second World War and that there was a Jewish 'domination of the
media'. Stone also said that Jews had '****ed up' U.S. foreign policy for years
and suggested the British supported Hitler ...’ The relentless attacks on Mel
Gibson are of the same caliber and purpose; suppression of truth!
WASHPOST
Ombudsman: Why Silence on Black Panther Story? (Washington Post) ‘Thursday's Post reported about a growing controversy
over the Justice
Department's decision to scale down a voter-intimidation case against members
of the New Black Panther Party. The story succinctly summarized the issues
but left many readers with a question: What took you so long? For months,
readers have contacted the ombudsman wondering why The Post hasn't been
covering the case. The calls increased recently after competitors such as the New
York Times and the Associated Press wrote stories. Fox News and right-wing
bloggers have been pumping the story. Liberal bloggers have countered, accusing
them of trying to manufacture a scandal. But The Post has been virtually
silent. The story has its origins on Election Day in 2008, when two members of
the New Black Panther Party stood in front of a Philadelphia polling place. YouTube
video of the men, now viewed nearly 1.5 million times, shows both wearing
paramilitary clothing. One carried a nightstick…’
Latino
KKK: You are too white to be American! ALIPAC | Tan
Klan woman can scream racist comments because the Obama administration and most
of the major news networks in America have her back.
Drudgereport:
NEW
LOW FOR O: USATODAYGALLUP HAS OBAMA APPROVE AT 41%...
America Is
'Bankrupt Mickey Mouse Economy'...
WIRE:
USA 'Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It'...
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT HITS
RECORD HIGH
JOBLESS
CLAIMS JUMP TO HIGHEST SINCE FEB...
California
can't pay bills -- may use IOUs for August payments...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
Homes
lost to foreclosure up 6% from last year...
Grim
Voter Mood Turns Grimmer...
Claims
of Afghan civilian deaths spark protest...
Military
sees heavier fighting in fall...
UPDATE:
Suspected serial killer arrested in Atlanta...
Attempting
to flee to israel … to be with kindred spirits ...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
MOB
RUSH FOR FED AID DRAWS RIOT POLICE
DOW drops
265...
Feds
rethink policies that encourage home ownership...
Obama: $3
Billion More in Aid for Unemployed...
US
posts widest trade gap in 20 months...
Q2 GDP Growth Could Be Revised To Just 1% After Trade Data...
PUMP:
FED TO BUY MORE DEBT...
DOWNGRADES
OUTLOOK...
US-backed
fighters in Iraq defect to al-Qaida... [Winning hearts and minds …
for Al Qaida … just one too many civilian deaths for no good reason at all ]
Republicans
Suggest Names for 'Second Stimulus' Bill...
'Where
do the bailouts end?' [I feel compelled to comment here that
even capital hill math would be hard-pressed to justify $26 billion taxpayer /
treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save 300,000 state / local
government jobs! After all, the nation is defacto bankrupt! ]
CASTRO
WARNS OF IMPENDING NUCLEAR HOLOCAUST
WELCOME
TO THE RECOVERY...
JULY
UNEMPLOYMENT -131,000 JOBS...
Revised: May/June -97,000 jobs than first reported...
Odd
mix of bad news...
CASTRO
WARNS OF IMPENDING NUCLEAR HOLOCAUST
Michelle
Obama 'modern-day Marie Antoinette'...
NYT:
'Leaves the taxpayers with a hefty bill'...
While
Obama preaches sacrifice, his family frolics in Spain...
Gazpacho,
turbot, veal and ratatouille with the king...
Lavish
Obama vacation in time of economic turmoil raises eyebrows...
BAKER:
'Leaves taxpayers with hefty bill'...
Hollywood
star-studded gala at first lady's luxury hotel...
MICHELLE
O'S $375,000 VACATION?!
Strolls Marbella after State Dept. 'racist' Spaniards gaffe...
White
House calling: Please will you make a coat for Michelle...
Boy
Scouts boo Obama...
GALLUP:
Blacks and Whites Continue to Differ Sharply on Obama...
JUDGE
KNOCKS DOWN MARRIAGE PROP IN CA
BLOW
TO O: MO SAYS NO
Voters
overwhelmingly rejected federal mandate to purchase health insurance...
Americans
swap passports; Desire to avoid tax leads some to renounce citizenship...
Ahmadinejad
survives blast near motorcade...
'Stupid
Zionists have hired mercenaries to assassinate me'...
FALTERING RECOVERY TRIPS DOLLAR...
GM,
FORD and CHRYSLER Sales All Lag Estimates...
Stimulus
Slammed: Republican Senators Release Report Alleging Waste...
The
100 worst stimulus projects...
SHOCK
VIDEO: DEM CONGRESSMAN BRAGS: 'FEDERAL GOVERNMENT CAN DO MOST ANYTHING IN THIS
COUNTRY'...
Deadliest Month Of Afghan War
Paper:
Will Washington's Failures Lead To Second American Revolution
Maxine
Waters faces trial over bank bailout funds...
HOT WATERS
Dems
Say Sorry, Charlie...
Democrats
Say Rangel Should Resign...
Obama:
Time For Rangel To End Career 'With Dignity'...
60,000 babies born to 'noncitizens' get U.S. birthright - in Texas
alone...
Dutch
become 1st NATO member to quit Afghanistan...
Then there is the well researched,
produced, and informative ‘ESOTERIC AGENDA’ which explains how we’ve gotten to
this forlorn point: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7052400717834950257#
Pentagon warns Congress:
Accounts running dry...(Drudgereport) Isn’t this headline eerily
reminiscent of that seminal B film by Roger Corman for Jack Nicholson, ‘Little
Shop of Horrors’ (and remake) wherein a murderous vegetable / plant clamors
incessantly and insatiably, ‘feed me’. Eight U.S. service members killed in series
of attacks in southern Afghanistan (Washington Post, July 15,
2010) . This ridiculous war apparently for the sake of the american sponsored
reinvigorated heroin trade was a bad idea ab initio even if america wasn’t
defacto bankrupt.
‘This is
a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The
past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This
has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with
great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell
into.’
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a
Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012
Exports
are up, but where are the jobs? (Washington Post) Gone with the wind?
Sorry, I must have been thinking of million dollar movies. Seriously though, I
dare say everyone knows they were gone with that ‘bi-partisan executive /
congressional, think-tank, cia / nsa ill wind’ that others might refer to as
flatulence / passing gas, also called NAFTA, and also proudly hailed by the
foregoing as ‘strategy’. They’re gone, and never to return. Moreover, the
flipside of the exports, viz., imports, doesn’t bode well despite the
fraudulent wall street b*** s*** and their chorus of cheerleaders in
washington. Some might say self-delusion but I would say fraud covers all.
Companies
pile up cash but still won't add jobs (Washington Post) Unlike the public sector (which now exceeds private
sector in job gains and average compensation), the private sector attempts to
mesh hiring with economic supply / demand factors to maximize (shareholder) profits / wealth. Whatever
faults american companies have, with relatively few exceptions, this still
remains a very basic fundamental and building surplus (generating profits) is a
necessary precept to ensure survival and the capacity to be a good ‘citizen’ so
to speak. Then there’s reality:
Retail
sales down for 2nd consecutive month (Washington Post) Another ‘Come on’ day on fraudulent wall street! This
time it’s the unexpected downward revision to previous market-frothing retail
sales report and poor retail sales and plunge in mortgage applications and then
there’s the fed minutes pointing to extended bad economy. See Dave Fry’s
(Daily) summary below referencing in euphemistic fashion, yet another ongoing
manipulation also known as fraud. (Absent prosecutions, they’ll continue to do
what comes natural to frauds on wall street). Great opportunity to sell / take
profits since much worse, also called reality beyond the b*** s***, to come.
Then there’s also the bad but typical news; viz., retail sales, mortgage apps, economic outlook down, and yesterday
deficits, trade and budget, up.
NATION NEWS DIGEST: J.P. Morgan Chase
posts $4.8 billion profit (Washington Post) Yet another ‘Come on’ day on fraudulent wall street! This
time it’s the unexpected jump in continuing claims for unemployment, yesterday
the downward revision to previous market-frothing retail sales report and poor
retail sales and plunge in mortgage applications and then there’s the fed
minutes pointing to extended bad economy. Then there’s also now the ‘goldfinger
factor’ as in goldman’s middle finger. When you defraud for many billions, paying $550 million is
chump change. Goldman shares rocketed 5.5% in after-hours trading. No wonder
Goldman called it "the right outcome for our firm shareholders and
clients." (Absent
prosecutions, they’ll continue to do what comes natural to frauds on wall
street). Great opportunity to sell / take profits since much worse, also called
reality beyond the b*** s***, to come. Then there’s also the bad but typical
news; viz., previous retail sales, mortgage apps, economic outlook down, and
continuing claims for unemployment, deficits, trade / budget, up. (Just in:
7-16-10 Poll – only 43% of Americans approve of the Afganistan War, down from
52% in January, 2010)
Pearlstein: Can
regulation beget innovation? (Washington Post) I believe the more seminal question to be,
whether american companies, consistent with overall american decline and
corruption in so pervasive a fashion, are capable of or inclined toward real
innovation where enhancements to productivity, as well as greater profits, is
the consequence as desired. Certainly there has been ‘innovation’ by the wall
street frauds in the types of (ultimately worthless / fraudulent) paper and
high frequency trade programs enhancing their bottom-lines but little else;
and, those cutting edge ‘weapons of mass destruction’ produced or financed
(israel) by america are hardly productive in the economic sense but innovative
and profitable in the short run, and unwise and nation-bankrupting in the
longer run which we’re in right now!
Ex-Justice
official: CIA may have exceeded limits (Washington
Post) Wee doggies! This sounds like the
stuff that SNL Weekend Update ‘Really’ skits are made of; also fitting into
that list of queries as, ‘Is the Pope Catholic?’, ‘Do bears **** in the
woods?’, etc.. Come on! Wake up! This
is the kind of complicit cover-up / corruption found betwixt and between all
three branches of the u.s. government leading ineluctably to america’s current
decline and to which I’ve attested under penalty of perjury in the context of
the RICO litigation [ http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
].
For
now, spew of oil into Gulf of Mexico is halted (Washington Post) Well, thank God for small favors! I suggest they change that
name, ‘integrity test’; that’s doomed to end in failure. Yes, the brits are
back. They’ve clogged the well, with help from the ‘usual suspects’, the
americans. What precision! What
teamwork! Victory at last … riiiiight!
WHICH WAY IS THE MARKET GOING NEXT? Gomes: ‘Having been a technical analyst for the first 10
years of my investing career and a fundamental analyst for the past 15 years,
I'm a believer that technical patterns form as fundamentals unfold. As such, if
you know something about both, you can confirm both against each other. At this
point in time, I see a market that is technically reaching up toward its 200
day moving average (2,250 for the NASDAQ). I also see a 50 day moving average
that is threatening to drop below that 200 day moving average. Technically,
that is usually a very bad sign for the market. The question is, "will the
50DMA drop below the 200DMA?" I think the answer is inevitably
"yes". The thing about the moving averages, is that you can see which
points of data are about to fall off. Meanwhile, you can make reasonable
assumptions regarding the points of data that will take their place. By doing
so, you can construct a range of probabilistic scenarios. In this case, some
high numbers are about to come out of the 50DMA, making it go lower. Meanwhile,
some low numbers are about to come out of the 200DMA, making it go higher.
Since both are VERY close to each other right now, it's safe to assume that the
50DMA will indeed fall below the 200DMA. So, that's probably bad news for the
market...technically. Fundamentally, it appears that Q2 turned out well for
most companies. However, most of the investing world knows this and stocks have
rallied about 8% on the news. Ever hear the saying "buy the rumor, sell
the news"? Well, the rumor has been bought and the news is just starting
to flow in. This means that we have to look at the NEXT bit of news to figure
out what rumor the market will be buying or selling. To me, it's clear that the
global economic environment will come back to the front burner as the #1 driver
of stock prices...and that's bad news for stocks. A good Q2 does not mean that
the future is bright. Rather, I believe that Q2 will represent the peak of
earnings health. Starting in Q3, good earnings will become a bit harder to come
by. Why?
1) Economic indicators are dropping fast. For all intents and purposes,
the unemployment rate has not budged. Meanwhile, store shelves are stocked
again, PCs have been upgraded, etc. In other words, the pent-up demand that
drove the current rebound has almost run its course. What little remains no
longer has the power to drive the economy as it has over the past 18-months.
2) "Follow the money". This is
one of the most powerfully simple rules on Wall Street. When money is flowing
into the economy (i.e. via lower interest rates or stimulus $$$), it's usually
good for stocks..and vice versa. At present, interest rates can't go much lower
and the numerous stimulus programs are losing effectiveness. This means that
the money is no longer flowing in. Worse yet, the money that was spent is not
generally viewed as having been money well spent. This does not bode well for a
new stimulus package to come anytime soon. In other words, money is not flowing
in AND doesn't appear poised to flow in anytime soon. In fact, state and
municipal budgets are being cut (money flowing OUT), while they raise local
sales and income taxes (more money flowing out). if federal taxes go up in
2011, as planned, even more money will be flowing out. If you follow that, you
should be flowing out of the stock market. In short, barring a new stimulus
package of other major money-flowing event, I believe the economy slips back
toward recession. Whether or not we double-dip, we will almost certainty slip
in that direction.
3) If you follow the money in
Europe, you will run for the hills. Europe has decided to spin
180-degrees and shift from stimulus to austerity (if you don't know the
definition, look it up -- you'll likely hear it again -- and not just from me).
Effectively the opposite of stimulus, austerity will pull money away from the
European economies...which tells us to pull money away from stocks. Worse yet,
the effect of the EU/IMF bailout is already wearing off. Greek yields are
rising again and Portuguese credit ratings have been reduced.
4) Global bubbles are bursting. Most notably,
home sales in China and Canada are starting to fall. Remember what happened
when the U.S. housing market cracked? That's right -- that's what started this
mess in the first place.
5) Politically, this period in
time has a tendency to be bad for stocks. There is uncertainty
around the mid-year elections...and the market hates uncertainty. Historically,
the political picture doesn't become clear until October, at which point we
might expect a rally. Until then, expect the democrats to do everything they
can to retain their jobs in November. That means, "stop pissing off the
public"...and the public seems pretty pissed about how the stimulus $$$
worked out for them (or more accurately, how it DIDN'T work out for them).
Thus, the political pressure will lean against further stimulus until after the
elections.
The Bottom Line: I
believe that the market will start to reflect these concerns very soon. These
are real fundamental concerns, which you can see reflected in the technicals.
As the market reaches the 50DMA and the 200DMA, it will be inclined to retreat
(barring some new, hugely positive news). Meanwhile, the 50DMA is 90%+ likely
to cross below the 200DMA, giving the market more reason to retrench. At some
point, if the economy sinks far enough and if the market drops far enough,
political pressure for more stimulus will mount. At that point, money will flow
back into the economy. But that time is not now. Now, money is flowing away
like the tide...and so should your invested capital. I'm not always right, but
I do my best, based on the information before me. Based on what I see right
now, the most logical conclusion is to expect a long, ugly summer for stocks.
If I see information that changes that view, I'll be sure to post an update to
this post. Disclosure: I have short positions against the market
DRUDGEREPORT: 'White
House waving white flag'...
Panic
button...
WIRE:
Dems show signs of battle fatigue...
Federal
deficit gap tops $1 trillion through June...
Republicans
propose cutting Obama budget...
'CREDIBILITY
CRISIS'
No
help in sight for jobless (Washington Post) Well, from their perspective, they
really don’t feel your pain, and, it gives the frauds on wall street another
b*** s***, market frothing, false talking point in the form of ‘fewer
continuing claims for unemployment’. Then there’s that ‘ depression thing’.
The big crash — America plunges into Depression Alexander Cockburn
‘This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn, pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes.’
Making millions from mowing lawns [Sounds like a plan … riiiiight!] (Washington Post) Value Added | Entrepreneur's reinvestment and diversification … By Thomas Heath For the less entrepreneurial at heart there’s always … flippin’ burgers … Washington, D.C.: the nation's (burger) capital? (Washington Post) | ‘The Washington area has emerged as fertile ground for ground chuck …’ Survey: A satisfied federal workforce (Washington Post) Indeed they should be since they’re totally expendable and a waste of taxpayer money.
Return of the No-Volume Melt-Up
Momentum Book Update: Trend Indicators Still Pointing Negative
Employment Picture Is Getting Bleaker
The Debt Party Is Over ‘… In a Ponzi scheme, the end comes when the marginal investor decides to do something else with his money. Then the house of cards stars falling apart. …’
DRUDGEREPORT: BOMBSHELL: Media Mogul Mort Zuckerman Admits
He Wrote One Of Obama's Speeches...
Were
White House Officials Ready to Expose Collaboration?
Zuckerman Now: Obama Barely Treading
Water...
MICHELLE TELLS BLACKS TO 'INCREASE INTENSITY'
6 troops killed in Afghanistan...
DEM GOVS WARN: OBAMA SUIT VS. AZ IS 'TOXIC'
Debt panel has gloomy outlook...
Crisis Awaits World’s Banks as Trillions Come Due...
G20 looks to Beijing to drive global growth … They’re
dreamin’! ...
They say ‘stocks oversold’. Preposterous! Stocks have been overbought based on bad news or nothing at all, rallying on ‘not as bad as expected’. Even if that were true (I don’t believe anything they say), who cares what the criminally insane frauds on wall street say what they expect. It’s fundamentals, economic and financial, that ultimately count; but, in the meantime, they’re like termites eating away at the nation’s foundation with lightning fast computerized trade programs, all of which excessively huge commission churn / earn revenues are a net negative for the economy in real economic terms which is evidenced by unprecedented economic decline in all productive sectors of the economy. This is a great opportunity to SELL / TAKE PROFITS since this suckers rally to suck suckers in and keep them sucked in is based on fraud and b*** s*** alone and: ‘This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes.’
Technical Indicators Trigger Major
Sell Signal ‘…In summary, the bearish picture is
confirmed by technical indicators, a fundamental outlook, sentiment gauges, and
valuations.Based on what the market considered fair market valuations at prior
historic market bottoms, one can conclude how far stocks have to drop to reach
the previously attained level of fair valuations …’
: ‘On Friday July 9, 2010, 4:32 pm EDT
It rarely ever happens, but when it does, it's serious. It has only happened
nine times in 10 years. We are referring to crossovers between the 200-day and
50-day simple moving averages (SMAs).Very few technical indicators receive as
much attention and media coverage as the 50 and 200-day SMAs. The 200-day MA is
perceived to be the dividing line between a stock that is technically healthy
and one that is not. It's a Big Deal It's a big deal when a
stock or an index drops below the 200-day SMA. It's an even bigger deal when
the 50-day SMA of any given stock or index drops below the 200-day SMA. Such a
crossover reflects internal weakness - at least in theory. We'll discuss in a moment
how the actual numbers match up with theoretic assumptions. On June 22, 2010,
the S&P 500 (SNP: ^GSPC) and Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI) dropped below the
200-day SMA. One day later the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) followed. On July 2,
2010, the 50-day SMA for the S&P (NYSEArca: SPY
- News)
dropped below the 200-day SMA. On July 6, the Dow Jones (NYSEArca: DIA
- News)
followed. As of today, the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: QQQQ
- News)
is barely hanging on. This sounds like a doomsday scenario. Does a rigid
analysis show that there is validity to 200-day and 50-day SMA crossover
buy/sell signals? Let's investigate.Crossovers - Lagging but Notable Many argue that the SMA
crossover is a delayed signal that emphasizes past weakness more than it
foreshadows future declines. To an extent, that is true. There are other
warning signals that point to a market turn long before the SMA does. For
example, on April 16, 2010, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted an
extremely low put/call ratio along with other bullish sentiment extremes. The
newsletter stated that 'the message conveyed by the composite bullishness is
unmistakably bearish. Once prices start to fall and investors get afraid of
incurring losses, the only option is to sell (due to the low put/call ratio).
Selling, results in more selling. This negative feedback loop usually results
in rapidly falling prices.' Prices did fall rapidly. The 22 trading days
following the April 26 high, erased eight months worth of gains. It took a 17%
drop for the SMA crossover to trigger a sell signal. When the ETF Profit
Strategy Newsletter issued a strong buy signal on March 2, 2009, it emphasized
that the developing rally would be a counter trend rally followed by a steep
decline and maintained this viewpoint even though prices kept rallying
relentlessly into the April highs. The SMA crossover now expresses the
possibility that even lower prices are ahead. 200 and 50-day SMA
Crossovers - How Accurate? How about the SMA crossover track record? Over
the past 10 years, there have been nine S&P SMA crossovers with five sell
and four buy signals. We have yet to see the results of the most recent sell
signal. However, of the eight previous signals, six were correct. Average gains
following each signal were 14.91%. $10,000 invested according to the buy/sell
recommendations given right after the first sell signal was triggered on
October 30, 2000 at S&P 1,399, would be worth $24,769 today. More Than just
Crossovers If it sounds too good to be true, it often is. As is the case with
so many technical indicators, crossovers need to be viewed in context with
other indicators. In other words, take a step back and evaluate how crossovers
fit into the larger picture. The larger picture (going back to 2007) reveals
that trading volume associated with market declines has been generally high,
while trading volume seen during rallies has been generally low; a bearish
sign. Does Wednesday's 3.13% Rally Invalidate the Sell Signal? On Wednesday, the
S&P rallied 32 points or 3.13%. The Dow rallied 2.82%, while the Nasdaq
rallied 3.13%. Does this mean the bull market is back on track?Since the
April market top, we've seen about a handful of 2-3% bounces. All associated
gains were erased within a matter of days. Chances are this time will be the
same. In fact, some sort of bounce was to be expected. On July 5, the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter stated 'considering that the S&P is butting
against the 100-week SMA, lower accelerations band, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
levels, round number resistance at 1,000, and weekly s1 at 994, there is a good
chance we will see some sort of a bounce develop from the 990 - 1,015 area.
Weekly r1 at 1,066 and pivot at 1,063 should serve as resistance.' This bounce
is in its later stages right now. What's Next? Let's revisit the larger
picture. Out of the nine leading industry sectors, seven have seen their 50-day
SMA cross below the 200-day SMA - financials (NYSEArca: XLF
- News),
technology (NYSEArca: XLK - News),
consumer staples (NYSEArca: XLP - News),
materials (NYSEArca: XLB - News),
utilities (NYSEArca: XLU - News),
energy (NYSEArca: XLE - News)
and healthcare (NYSEArca: XLV - News).
The consumer discretionary (NYSEArca: XLY
- News)
and industrial sector (NYSEArca: XLI - News)
are the only holdouts. All nine sectors, however, trade below their 200-day
SMA. Fundamentals, sentiment readings and valuations also point south. Some of
the fundamentals we have discussed in these pages are crafty accounting
practices designed to hide huge losses racked up by big financial institutions
not yet realized along with a continually bad unemployment picture. Sentiment
surrounding the April highs recorded extremes not seen since the 2000, 2007,
and even 1987 market top. There are multiple sentiment measures (such as the
VIX, cash allocation, put/call ratio, percentage of bullish/bearish advisors,
mutual fund cash levels, etc.). Each sentiment measure is one piece of the
puzzle. The more pieces of the puzzle you have, the clearer the picture
becomes. Leading up to the April highs, nearly all sentiment indicators peaked,
painting a complete bearish picture. In summary, the bearish picture is
confirmed by technical indicators, a fundamental outlook, sentiment gauges, and
valuations. Based on what the market considered fair market valuations at prior
historic market bottoms, one can conclude how far stocks have to drop to reach
the previously attained level of fair valuations. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
includes a detailed analysis of four valuation metrics with a track record of
accuracy, along with the implied target range for an ultimate market bottom.
This is provided in addition to its short, mid and long-term forecast. When the
market speaks, it behooves investors to listen. Fighting the tape has often
proven to be foolish, as the market will always have the final word.’
A Market Forecast That Says ‘Take Cover’ New York Times | We have entered a market decline of staggering proportions — perhaps the biggest of the last 300 years.
Commercial Real Estate Loans Extend and Pretend ‘…Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters Commercial Real Estate Loans – Extend and Pretend Community banks have commercial real estate loans where the borrower cannot make scheduled interest and principle payments. More than 50% of all FDIC-insured institutions have loan pipelines that are 80% to 100% funded. This is a measure of how banks are stuck with noncurrent assets, but they are not classified that way. Instead, community banks are giving borrowers more time to make their payments on the theory that it’s better to collect zero on some loans rather than owning the real estate that collateralizes those loans. This concept is dubbed “extend and pretend” hoping that the borrower will eventual pay the loan back. Banks in this practice are known as “Zombie Banks” as they can’t lend, can’t lure in new investors, and wait for the FDIC to knock on their doors on Friday afternoon. This strategy includes stretching out loan maturities and allowing below-market interest rates to slow the number of defaults and preserving the capital of banks that would be expended if property had to become “Other Real Estate Owned.” As a result “Loans 30 to 89 Days in Arrears” and “Noncurrent” loans are not growing as fast as they should be. The net result of these practices masks the true toxicity of the Commercial Real Estate market. It’s not just the small banks that are employing “extend and pretend” tactics. I read that the Bank of America (BAC) has extended a large real estate loan in Buckhead, Georgia the high-class area north of Atlanta. The loan finances the development of a high-end shopping and residential project in 2007 and now three years later the cranes are silent and the project is fenced in. The banking regulators are helping the banks by allowing the lenders several ways to restructure loans. While doing so the banks are allowed to keep these loans as “performing” even with collateral values below the loan amounts. Extend and pretend is also known as kicking the can down the road. It seems to me that we have wasted billions if not trillions in stimulus money and bank bailouts when this money could have been used to actually fund the completion of these projects. Such a plan would have cost tax payers much less and would have kept Americans working on Main Street USA, as finishing incompleted real estate projects are clearly “shovel ready” projects. According to Foresight Analytics banks hold $176 billion of CRE loans that could be declared toxic. This is the tip of the iceberg as the FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile shows $1.09 trillion in nonfarm nonresidential real estate loans and $418 billion in Construction & Development loans on the books of our nation’s banks. About two-thirds of the CRE loans are maturing between now and 2014, and are underwater. Commercial real estate property values are down 42% from the October 2007 peak. At the end of the first quarter 9.1% are delinquent up from 7% a year earlier. Bankers justify “extend and pretend” saying that it’s better than calling the loan and dumping more property on a depressed market. We need a stronger economy to entice new investors to resurrect projects and to find new demand for competed offices, hotels, condos etc which are the finished products of completed CRE projects. Without a strong economic recovery these loans will eventually have to be written off down the road. The problem is that while these loans are on hold banks can’t justify new loans, which would be the engine of economic growth. And the beat goes on. Disclosure: No positions’
Light Volume Temptations: Dave's Daily ‘Volume still matters, doesn't it? It seems not as the financial media ignores our light volume market in favor of writing bullish headlines. With hedge funds mostly sidelined according to reports posted here yesterday, the primary buyers must be trading desks on Wall Street and a handful of algo traders. It's tempting to come off the sidelines and join the fun but perhaps it's just the trap they're laying for you. A headline at Reuters read this afternoon: "Weaker Economic Views Equals Stronger 3-Year Note Sale". So, if equity markets are forward-looking one must wonder what these few buyers are seeing beyond a short-term trade. Headline writers say its strong earnings growth that will prop markets coupled with rosy outlooks. That would have to be the case otherwise this is just a sucker's rally. As stated, volume was holiday-like light (40% below average) making it really easy for the machines to take over trading, and so they did ... ‘
DRUDGEREPORT: PAPER: Optimism on hold; Recovery economy falters...
USA
marks 3rd-largest, single-day debt increase...
Deficit
hits $1 trillion in June for second year...
IMF presses US
to cut debt...
NSA
INTERNET GRAB; SPY AGENCY SHIFTS TO DOMESTIC EAVESDROPPING...
CIVIL
RIGHTS PANEL TO PURSUE FED PROBE IN BLACK PANTHER CASE...
RESET: Russia slams
Clinton for 'groundless' comments...
Mortgage
Delinquencies Rising Again as Home Prices Stay Flat...
Roubini: Banks Too Big to Fail, Too Big
to Bail Out...
COOKED APPLE: 103...
UPDATE:
MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE...
US v. AZ...
Banks are Still at the Derivatives Casino (at Seeking Alpha) [video] Washington's Bungled Bank Bailout (at TheStreet.com) ECRI Weekly Leading Index Growth Lowest in 13 Months Be on the Right Side of S&P Earnings Estimate Cuts
Inventory Cycle Has Run Its Course Harrison – ‘… This is the scenario I have been predicting for months now.
David Rosenberg says the ISM leads jobs. And, the latest jobs numbers were weak.
I would be nonplused about the recent ISM data if it weren’t for the column highlighted in red. Notice how the momentum for everything is slowing. Not just the overall index, but new orders, production and employment …’
DRUDGEREPORT: TORN
ON FOURTH OF JULY: OBAMA DIVIDES NATION...
Great
Republic in parlous state -- politically, economically...
YEAR
9: Petraeus in Afghanistan warns of tough mission...
'We are in this
to win' … Win what? The fact of america’s defacto bankruptcy and being there IS
failure no matter what they ultimately call this debacle ...
Illinois
Stops Paying Its Bills...
Facing
'outright disaster' amid budget crisis...
Turn On, Tune In...Nah, Just Drop Out … Discouraged workers at a new cycle high And small wonder. The median unemployment duration went to a new all-time high (since the 1940s, anyway, when that series begins) and shows no signs of slowing its ascent … (Chart, source Bloomberg)…
NY
Times’ Krugman: We Are Entering The Third Depression Recessions are
common; depressions are rare. [Correction: we’re already in a depression].
JUNE UNEMPLOYMENT 9.5%... 125,000 JOBS
LOST...
Rate
dips as 652,000 give up search...
Depressing...
[That’s why they’re called depressions (just kidding … but no laughing matter)
… At this rate, with all those lost jobs and jobseekers no longer seeking
those lost jobs that aren’t there, by their calculations (9.5% the bright spot
… riiiiight!) we should be at full employment very soon … you can’t make this
stuff up … really!].
Ron Paul: 114 Flip Flop on Audit The Fed Causing Bill to Fail 229 – 198 Ron Paul’s attempt to audit the Federal Reserve, which was previously co-sponsored by 320 members of the House (HR 1207), failed by a vote of 229-198. All Republicans voted in favor of the measure with 23 Democrats crossing the aisle to vote with Republicans. 122 co-sponsors of HR 1207, all Democrats, jumped ship and voted against the measure. The Future of Audit the Fed Congressman Ron Paul discusses the latest in the efforts to get a full and complete audit of the Fed as well as the future of Fed transparency. Like Congressman Paul says, we’ve accomplished a lot of good with our movement, and there’s many reasons to be optimistic for the future. Ditch the Buck! Dollar demise ‘a matter of months’ A report by the United Nations says the American dollar should be ditched as the main global reserve currency. It said that the global financial meltdown has exposed systematic weaknesses, one of which is the reliance on the greenback. G-20 is Relying on China To Drive the World Economy … But China Isn’t Looking So Hot The G-20 is apparently relying on China to drive the world economy.
Middle class families face a triple whammy Edmund Conway | Falling pensions, cuts and the banking crisis will impoverish many families.
The following are 50 random facts that show just how dramatically america has changed….
#50) A new report released
by the United Nations is publicly calling for the establishment of a world
currency and none of the major news networks are even
covering it.
#49) Arnold Schwarzenegger has
ordered California State Controller John Chiang to reduce state worker pay for
July to the federal minimum allowed by law — $7.25 an hour for most
state workers.
#48) A police
officer in Oklahoma recently tasered an 86-year-old disabled grandma in her bed
and stepped on her oxygen hose until she couldn’t breathe because they considered her to be a “threat”.
#47) In early
2009, U.S. net national savings as a percentage of GDP went negative for the first time since
1952, and it has continued its downward trend since then.
#46) Corexit 9500 is
so incredibly toxic that the UK’s Marine Management Organization has completely banned
it, so if there was a major oil spill in the North Sea, BP would not be able to use it.
And yet BP has dumped over a million gallons of dispersants such as Corexit
9500 into the Gulf of Mexico.
#45) For the first
time in U.S. history, more than 40 million Americans are on food stamps,
and the U.S. Department of Agriculture projects that number will go up to 43
million Americans in 2011.
#44) It has come out
that one employee used a Federal Emergency Management Agency credit card to buy $4,318 in “Happy Birthday” gift cards. Two other FEMA officials
charged the cost of 360 golf umbrellas ($9,000) to the taxpayers.
#43) Researchers at
the State University of New York at Buffalo received $389,000 from the
U.S. government to pay 100 residents of Buffalo $45 each to record how much malt liquor they drink and how much
pot they smoke each day.
#42) The average
duration of unemployment in the United States has risen to an all-time high.
#41) The bottom 40
percent of all income earners in the United States now collectively own less than 1 percent of the nation’s wealth.
#40) In the U.S., the
average federal worker now earns about twice as much as the average
worker in the private sector.
#39) Back in 1950 each
retiree’s Social Security
benefit was paid for by 16 workers. Today, each retiree’s Social Security benefit is paid for by
approximately 3.3 workers. By 2025 it is projected that there will be approximately two workers
for each retiree.
#38) According to a
U.S. Treasury Department report to Congress, the U.S. national debt will top
$13.6 trillion this year and climb to an estimated $19.6 trillion by 2015.
#37) The federal government
actually has the gall to ask for online
donations that will supposedly go towards paying off the national
debt.
#36) The Cactus Bug
Project at the University Of Florida was allocated $325,394 in
economic stimulus funds to study the mating decisions of cactus bugs.
#35) A dinner cruise
company in Chicago got nearly $1 million in economic stimulus funds to combat terrorism.
#34) It is being
reported that a 6-year-old girl from Ohio is
on the “no fly” list maintained by U.S. Homeland Security.
#33) During the first
quarter of 2010, the total number of loans that are at least three months past
due in the United States increased for the 16th consecutive quarter.
#32) According to a
new report, Americans spend twice as much as residents of other
developed countries on healthcare, but get lower quality and far less
efficiency.
#31) Some experts are
warning that the cost of bailing out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could reach as high as $1 trillion.
#30)
The FDA has announced that the offspring of cloned animals could be in our food
supply right now and that there is nothing that they can do about
it.
#29) In May, sales of
new homes in the United States dropped to the lowest level ever
recorded.
#28) In 1950, the
ratio of the average executive’s paycheck to the
average worker’s paycheck was about
30 to 1. Since the year 2000, that ratio has
ranged between 300 to 500 to one.
#27)
Federal border officials recently said that Mexican drug cartels have not
only set up shop on American soil, they are actually maintaining lookout bases in
strategic locations in the hills of southern Arizona.
#26) The U.S.
government has declared some parts of Arizona off limits to U.S. citizens because of
the threat of violence from Mexican drug smugglers.
#25) According to the credit card repayment calculator, if you
owe $6000 on a credit card with a 20 percent interest rate and only pay the
minimum payment each time, it will take you 54 years to pay off that credit
card. During those 54 years you will pay $26,168 in interest
rate charges in addition to the $6000 in principal that you are required to pay
back.
#24) According to
prepared testimony by Goldman Sachs Chief Operating Officer Gary Cohn, Goldman
Sachs shorted roughly $615 million of
the collateralized debt obligations and residential mortgage-backed securities
the firm underwrote since late 2006.
#23) The six biggest banks in the United States now
possess assets equivalent to 60 percent of America’s gross national product.
#22) Four of the
biggest U.S. banks (Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and
Citigroup) had a “perfect quarter” with zero days of trading losses during the
first quarter of 2010.
#21) 1.41 million
Americans filed for personal bankruptcy in 2009 – a 32 percent increase over 2008.
#20) BP has
hired private security contractors
to keep the American people away from oil cleanup sites and nobody
seems to care.
#19) Barack
Obama is calling for a “civilian expeditionary force” to be sent to
Afghanistan and Iraq to help overburdened military troops build infrastructure.
#18) On June 18th, two
Christians decided that they would peacefully pass out copies of the gospel of
John on a public sidewalk outside a public Arab festival in Dearborn,
Michigan and within 3 minutes 8 policemen surrounded them and placed them under arrest.
#17) It is being
reported that sales of foreclosed homes in Florida made up nearly 40 percent of all
home purchases in the first part of this year.
#16) During
a recent interview with Larry King, former first lady Laura Bush
revealed to the world that she is actually in favor of legalized gay marriage
and a woman’s “right” to abortion.
#15) Scientists at
Columbia University are warning that the dose of radiation from the new full
body security scanners going into airports all over the United
States could be up to 20 times higher
than originally estimated.
#14) 43 percent of Americans have less than $10,000
saved for retirement.
#13) The FDIC’s deposit insurance fund now has negative 20.7 billion dollars in it,
which represents a slight improvement from the end of 2009.
#12) The judge that
BP is pushing for to hear an estimated 200 lawsuits on the Gulf of
Mexico oil disaster gets tens of thousands of dollars a
year in oil royalties and is paid travel expenses to industry
conferences.
#11) In recent years
the U.S. government has spent $2.6 million tax dollars to study the drinking habits of Chinese prostitutes and
$400,000 tax dollars to pay researchers to cruise six bars in Buenos
Aires, Argentina to find out why gay men engage in risky sexual behavior
when drunk.
#10) U.S. officials
say that more than three billion
dollars in cash (much of it aid money paid for by U.S. taxpayers)
has been stolen by corrupt officials in Afghanistan and flown out of Kabul
International Airport in recent years.
#9) According to a
report by the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics, the baggage check fees
collected by U.S. airlines shot up 33% in the first
quarter of 2010 to $769 million.
#8) Three California
high school students are fighting for their right to show their American
patriotism - even on a Mexican holiday - after they were forced to remove
their American flag T-shirts on Cinco de Mayo.
#7) Right now,
interest on the U.S. national debt and spending on entitlement programs like
Social Security and Medicare are somewhere in the neighborhood of 10
to 15 percent of GDP. By 2080, they are projected to eat up approximately 50 percent of GDP.
#6) The total of all
government, corporate and consumer debt in the United States is now about 360 percent of GDP.
#5) A 6-year-old
girl was recently handcuffed and sent to
a mental facility after throwing temper tantrums at her
elementary school.
#4) In Florida,
students have been arrested by police for things as
simple as bringing a plastic butter knife to school, throwing an eraser,
and drawing a picture of a gun.
#3) School officials
in one town in Massachusetts are refusing to allow students to recite the Pledge of Allegiance.
#2) According
to one new study, approximately 21 percent of children in the United
States are living below the poverty line in 2010.
#1) Since 1973, more than 50 million babies have been
murdered in abortion facilities across the United States.
Drudgereport: JUNE UNEMPLOYMENT 9.5%... 125,000 JOBS
LOST...
Rate
dips as 652,000 give up search...
Depressing...
[That’s why they’re called depressions (just kidding … but no laughing matter)
… At this rate, with all those lost jobs and jobseekers no longer seeking
those lost jobs that aren’t there, by their calculations (9.5% the bright spot
… riiiiight!) we should be at full employment very soon … you can’t make this
stuff up … really!].
New
jobless claims rise [again]...
'Surprise'...
Pending
home sales plunge record 30%...
Weak economic
data suggest 'recovery' fizzling...
Fears
mount over slowing global demand...
UN committee calls for dumping US dollar...
Six Months to Go Until the Largest Tax Hikes in History...
From Ryan Ellis on Thursday, July 1, 2010 4:15 PM
Read more: http://www.atr.org/six-months-untilbr-largest-tax-hikes-a5171##ixzz0sVN5aBH3
In
just six months, the largest tax hikes in the history of America
will take effect. They will hit families and small businesses in three
great waves on January 1, 2011:
First Wave: Expiration of 2001 and 2003 Tax Relief
In 2001 and 2003, the GOP Congress enacted several tax cuts for investors,
small business owners, and families. These will all expire on January 1,
2011:
Personal income tax rates will rise. The top income tax
rate will rise from 35 to 39.6 percent (this is also the rate at which
two-thirds of small business profits are taxed). The lowest rate will
rise from 10 to 15 percent. All the rates in between will also
rise. Itemized deductions and personal exemptions will again phase out,
which has the same mathematical effect as higher marginal tax rates. The
full list of marginal rate hikes is below:
- The 10% bracket rises to an expanded 15%
- The 25% bracket rises to 28%
- The 28% bracket rises to 31%
- The 33% bracket rises to 36%
- The 35% bracket rises to 39.6%
Higher taxes on marriage and family. The “marriage
penalty” (narrower tax brackets for married couples) will return from the first
dollar of income. The child tax credit will be cut in half from $1000 to
$500 per child. The standard deduction will no longer be doubled for
married couples relative to the single level. The dependent care and
adoption tax credits will be cut.
The return of the Death Tax. This year, there is no
death tax. For those dying on or after January 1 2011, there is a 55
percent top death tax rate on estates over $1 million. A person leaving
behind two homes and a retirement account could easily pass along a death tax
bill to their loved ones.
Higher tax rates on savers and investors. The capital
gains tax will rise from 15 percent this year to 20 percent in 2011. The
dividends tax will rise from 15 percent this year to 39.6 percent in
2011. These rates will rise another 3.8 percent in 2013.
Second Wave: Obamacare
There are over twenty new or higher taxes in Obamacare.
Several will first go into effect on January 1, 2011. They include:
The “Medicine Cabinet Tax” Thanks to Obamacare,
Americans will no longer be able to use health savings account (HSA), flexible
spending account (FSA), or health reimbursement (HRA) pre-tax dollars to
purchase non-prescription, over-the-counter medicines (except insulin).
The “Special Needs Kids Tax” This provision of Obamacare
imposes a cap on flexible spending accounts (FSAs) of $2500 (Currently, there
is no federal government limit). There is one group of FSA owners for
whom this new cap will be particularly cruel and onerous: parents of special
needs children. There are thousands of families with special needs
children in the United States, and many of them use FSAs to pay for special
needs education. Tuition rates at one leading school that teaches special
needs children in Washington, D.C. (National Child Research Center) can easily
exceed $14,000 per year. Under tax rules, FSA dollars can be used to pay
for this type of special needs education.
The HSA Withdrawal Tax Hike. This provision of Obamacare
increases the additional tax on non-medical early withdrawals from an HSA from
10 to 20 percent, disadvantaging them relative to IRAs and other tax-advantaged
accounts, which remain at 10 percent.
Third Wave: The Alternative Minimum Tax and Employer Tax Hikes
When Americans prepare to file their tax returns in January of 2011, they’ll be
in for a nasty surprise—the AMT won’t be held harmless, and many tax relief
provisions will have expired. The major items include:
The AMT will ensnare over 28 million families, up from 4 million last
year. According to the left-leaning Tax Policy Center, Congress’ failure to index
the AMT will lead to an explosion of AMT taxpaying families—rising from 4
million last year to 28.5 million. These families will have to calculate
their tax burdens twice, and pay taxes at the higher level. The AMT was
created in 1969 to ensnare a handful of taxpayers.
Small business expensing will be slashed and 50% expensing will
disappear. Small businesses can normally expense (rather than
slowly-deduct, or “depreciate”) equipment purchases up to $250,000. This
will be cut all the way down to $25,000. Larger businesses can expense
half of their purchases of equipment. In January of 2011, all of it will
have to be “depreciated.”
Taxes will be raised on all types of businesses. There
are literally scores of tax hikes on business that will take place. The
biggest is the loss of the “research and experimentation tax credit,” but there are many, many others. Combining
high marginal tax rates with the loss of this tax relief will cost jobs.
Tax Benefits for Education and Teaching Reduced. The
deduction for tuition and fees will not be available. Tax credits for
education will be limited. Teachers will no longer be able to deduct
classroom expenses. Coverdell Education Savings Accounts will be
cut. Employer-provided educational assistance is curtailed. The
student loan interest deduction will be disallowed for hundreds of thousands of
families.
Charitable Contributions from IRAs no longer allowed.
Under current law, a retired person with an IRA can contribute up to $100,000
per year directly to a charity from their IRA. This contribution also
counts toward an annual “required minimum distribution.” This ability
will no longer be there.
Read more: http://www.atr.org/six-months-untilbr-largest-tax-hikes-a5171##ixzz0sVMwYIhK
Investors get more gloomy & bearish We just had a very difficult three month stretch for stocks. The S&P 500 fell 12% for the quarter as did NASDAQ. The Shanghai Composite, China’s largest stock index, fell 22.9 in its local currency, the yuan. The MSCI EAFE Index (foreign stocks) was down 14%. Given the negative news, it is not surprising that investors are becoming more bearish on stocks. This chart from Bespoke is based on the weekly Investors Intelligence survey, which is getting close to levels from a year ago. This is not close the peak we reached in early 2009, but the mood is definitely more negative now: [chart]
Double Dip on the Way There were many events contributing to yesterday’s sell-off, and the most likely culprits around the globe included more protests in Greece, continued to concerns about Europe at large, and a downward revision (due to a calculation error) of a leading economic indicator reading in China for the month of April. But when it comes down to it, our own economy has yet to stand on solid ground. While the recovery has continued to be shaky at best, recent economic readings may be pointing to a double dip recession. Yesterday’s batch of economic data seemed to be confirming that, as it brought a very dismal reading on consumer confidence. June’s number stood at 52.9, far below expectations of 62.5, and pointing to the consumers’ weariness about the job market, and economic recovery in general. To go further, the previous reading for May was revised downward, to 62.7 from 63.3. But the drop from May to June really sends the message home: we’re not out of the woods yet. Earlier in the week, we saw personal savings rates rise again, even while personal income growth was meager. Americans, despite bringing home a little more cash, continued to save more for the expected rainy days, and have yet to return to their spendthrift ways. After yesterday’s precipitous selling, one would expect to see a bit of a bounce in today’s trading session. That wasn’t the case, however, as more weak data continued to dampen economic hopes. Today’s culprit was the ADP private sector job report. The report stated that private payroll gains were muted in June, with only 13,000 jobs added – far less than the 60,000 expected by economists. While May’s reading was revised slightly upwards (to 57,000 hires from previously reported 55,000), today’s release does not bode well for the much anticipated report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics due out on Friday. The non-farms payroll survey includes government workers and has been inflated in recent months due to hiring for the 2010 Census … [chart] …The June report, however, will reflect many of those workers being laid off in the past month. In May, 431,000 jobs were added, but without support from temporary government hires, economists are predicting job losses in June. Last week, consensus estimates were for a loss of 70,000 jobs for the month. By yesterday, those estimates were downgraded further, to 110,000. With the help of today’s ADP report, expectations have continued to fall: economists now expect a reading of negative 125,000 …
Barron's: Why the Market Will Keep Sliding Perry D- Barron's has a nice summary of what the future may hold in its "Up and Down Wall Street." It summarizes as well as anything I've read recently where we're likely headed. Bugging the (stock) market is the increasingly obvious disparity between what the Street's incorrigible cheerleaders see and prophesy and what's actually happening in the real world...The double dip in housing may or may not be a template of what's in store for the economy as a whole. But at the very least, it is a precursor of other serious disappointments destined to feed the unease among the jittery populace, which most emphatically includes investors.
It cites the predictions of SDK Captial's Dee Kessler:
--the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus so liberally applied in 2008-2009 is starting to run out of steam, with financial conditions tightening and leading economic indicators pointing to a stretch of "anemic activity."
--"structural headwinds," such as public and private deleveraging, higher taxes, greater regulation and trade tensions.
--the well-publicized woes of the European bloc, which accounts for 20% of the world's GDP, as further evidence that the global economy, as he puts it, is downshifting.
--The period of easy comparisons in corporate results, he says, is coming to a close,
--"Although the fundamentals in the U.S., Europe and Japan are worse," Dee spots plenty of downside in emerging markets and doesn't fancy the notion of decoupling.
--Come another financial crisis, "the only policy response left will be to print money." Which, of course, is what the gold bugs are counting on and why bullion has glistened so brightly.
That about sums up the outlook. The nice insight here is that anxiety over future economic malaise -- and the additional money printing that'll be done to mask it -- might be a bigger factor than current inflationary pressure behind the surge in gold prices.
In other words, for the deflation-believers: deflation today? Perhaps. But big-time inflation tomorrow.
Disclosure: No positions
NY Times’ Krugman: We Are Entering The Third Depression Recessions are common; depressions are rare. [Correction: we’re already in a depression].
Stocks: Once More Up, Then the Big Down Smith -The ingredients for a classic head and shoulders topping pattern in the stock market are all present. That suggests one more rise and then a massive grinding move down to 2009 lows. Officially, of course, everything's peachy with the economy. Europe is fixed, China is booming, consumer confidence is rising, and we are encouraged to resume our borrow and spend ways as the economy will not "double-dip" into recession. The economy will not slide into another recession, we are reassured constantly, even though roughly 80% of Americans don't think we ever left the recessionary quicksand. Please see "Two Scoop Special": Double-Dip Recession Guaranteed (May 21, 2010) for more … Exactly what drivers are there for future gains in corporate profits? I can't think of any, short of Martians landing and going on a shopping spree with gold they manufacture in their spacecraft. On the negative side, we have:
1. The rising dollar is a huge headwind to sales in the eurozone and
elsewhere.
2. The low-hanging fruit of pushing the workforce to produce more output for the
same salary/wages have all been picked.
3. The inventory build-out is done for everything but the iPhone 4 and iPad.
4. So-called "fiscal austerity" (when did living within one's means
become some sort of brutual "austerity"? Talk abour propaganda!) in the
eurozone and U.S. states will remove tens of billions of dollars from corporate
sales.
5. Global overcapacity is alive and well. There is overcapacity in everything
manufactured except the iPhone 4, and that will be in glut by 2011 as well.
6. Uncle Sam is not distributing trillions of dollars quite as freely. There
seems to be some glimmer of awareness that there could be consequences of
squandering trillions of borrowed dollars on essentially worthless projects
such as occupying Iraq, inflating the housing market by socializing the entire
mortgage market, propping up Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA, etc.
7. Housing is rolling over now that the socialized mortgage market has been
tentatively allowed to go off life-support (it is wheezing and turning blue in
the face, not signs of vibrant health).
8. There is no pricing power anywhere once stimulus-goosed demand declines to
organic demand (flat to down) …
Momentum Book Update: The Market Is a Mess and the Long Bond Is About to Break Out … Not only do us swing traders have to fight the urge to chase price action up, but lay off the keyboard trying to catch falling knives in the relative strength stocks which are holding up. If you tried to buy support in your favorite names this week, you got your hands cut up. I’ll continue to rely on the understanding of my own emotions as they have served me well. When we opened higher on Monday morning I knew I was in the right place, cash, as the market was just way overbought. If you bought most relative strength names last week, by the end of this week you were well underwater. So where do we go from here? I’ve got no clue, the market is a mess, the charts are a mess, and the long bond is about to break out. If that happens all bets are off, we could see an “event”. If the smart money is lining up at the exits and moving into bonds, there’s a good chance they see something coming down the pipe …
SUITING UP FOR A POST-DOLLAR WORLD John Browne ‘The global financial crisis is playing out like a slow-moving, highly predicable stage play. In the current scene, Western governments are caught between the demands of entitled welfare beneficiaries and the anxiety of bondholders who fear they will be stuck with the bill. As the crisis reaches an apex, prime ministers and presidents are forced into a Sophie's choice between social unrest and bankruptcy. But with the "Club Med" economies set to fall like dominoes, the US Treasury market is not yet acting the role we would have anticipated. Our argument has always been that the US benefits from its reserve-currency status, allowing it to accumulate unsustainable debts for an unusually long period without the immediate repercussions of inflation or higher borrowing costs. But this false sense of security may be setting us up for a truly monumental crash. There is fresh evidence that time is running out for the dollar-centric global monetary order. In fact, central banks outside the US are already making swift and discrete preparation for a post-dollar era.To begin, the People's Bank of China has just this week decided to permit a wider trading range between the yuan and the dollar. This is the first step toward ending the infernal yuan-dollar peg. While the impetus behind this abrupt change remains a mystery, I have a sneaking suspicion that, as my colleague Neeraj Chaudhary explained in his commentary last week, the nationwide labor strikes were a prime motivator. In response to the 2008 credit crunch, the Fed printed so many dollars that the People's Bank of China was forced to drive Chinese inflation into double digits to maintain the peg. The pain has fallen on China's workers, who have seen their wages stagnate while prices for everything from milk to apartments have skyrocketed. This week's move indicates that, regardless of its own policy motives, the Communist Party can no longer afford to keep pace with the dollar's devaluation. The result will be a shift in wealth from America to China, which may trigger a long-anticipated run on the dollar, while creating investment opportunities in China. Just days before China's announcement, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev rattled his monetary sabre by telling the press of his intention to lead the world toward a new monetary order based on a broad basket of currencies. Giving strength to his claim, the Central Bank of Russia announced that it would be adding Canadian and Australian dollars to its reserves for the first time. Analysts suggest that the IMF may follow suit. While Russia floats in the limbo between hopeless kleptocracy and emerging economy, it does possess vast natural resources and a toe-hold in both Europe and Asia. In other words, it will be a strategically important partner for China as it tries to cast off dollar hegemony. Speaking of Europe, the major powers there are moving toward a post-dollar world by rejecting President Obama's calls to jump on America's debt grenade. The prescriptions coming from Washington translate loosely to: our airship is on fire, so why don't you light a candle under yours so that we may crash and burn together. Given that dollar strength is largely seen as a function of euro weakness (as Andrew Schiff discussed in our most recent newsletter, debt troubles in the eurozone's fringe economies have created a distorted confidence in the greenback. However, as you might imagine, Europe has higher priorities than being America's fall guy. Led by an ever-bolder Germany, the European states are wisely choosing not to throw themselves on our funeral pyre, but to wisely clean house in anticipation of China's rise. In another ominous sign for the dollar, the Financial Times reported Wednesday that after two decades as net sellers of gold, foreign central banks have now become net buyers. What's more, more than half of central bank officials surveyed by UBS didn't think the dollar would be the world's reserve in 2035. Among the predicted replacements were Asian currencies and the euro, but - by far - the favorite was gold. This is supported by Monday's revelation by the Saudi central bank that it had covertly doubled its gold reserves, just about a year after China made a similar admission. There is no reason to assume these are isolated incidents, or that the covert trade of dollars for gold doesn't continue. To the contrary, this is compelling evidence that foreign governments are outwardly supporting the status quo while quietly preparing for the dollar's almost-inevitable devaluation. What people like Paul Krugman believe to be a return to medieval economics may, in fact, be the wave of the future. In peacetime, hardened troops will likely tolerate a blowhard general for an extended period; but when the artillery opens up with live ordnance, an ineffectual leader risks rapid demotion. The newspapers are now riddled with hints that foreign governments have lost faith in Washington and the dollar reserve system. It seems to me only natural that after a century of war, inflation, and socialism, the next hundred years would belong to those people who hold the timeless values of hard money and fiscal prudence. Unfortunately, our policymakers are not those people.’
China's Hu Jintao Says Group of 20 Must Coordinate to Consolidate Recovery Bloomberg … How about the G195 countries in the world collectively be considered in this task of coordination owing to the abject failure of the so-called G20 which have in lockstep coordination precipitated this global crisis including the war mongering, war criminal acts of the so-called nato allies et als, particularly the u.s., and as well the likes of war criminal nation israel which have never avoided a contra-indicated, anti-recovery war / conflict they could contrive / rationalize. The so-called G7, 8, 9, 20, etc., are a pathetic bunch of incompetent vegetables / jokers / showmen / clowns.
The following is really the quintessential question and issue, particularly in light of america’s defacto bankruptcy and international law; but paramount humanitarian concerns alone would militate against america’s current misguided course. Is Petraeus McChrystal’s Replacement or Obama’s? Paul Craig Roberts | All of this drama is playing out despite the continuing lack of any valid reason for the american invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan.
3 SIGNS OF A SUCKER RALLY AFTER EXAMINING TECHNICAL EVIDENCE, SENTIMENT INDICATORS AND VARIOUS VALUATION METRICS, IT BECOMES OBVIOUS THAT THE RECENT BOUNCE PROVIDES A SELLING, NOT BUYING OPPORTUNITY ...’
Reports: IAF Landed at Saudi Base, US Troops near Iran Border Arutz Sheva | The Israeli Air Force recently unloaded military equipment at a Saudi Arabia base, a semi-official Iranian news agency claimed Wednesday. It’s time for the world to take a close look at the despotic, totalitarian regime that presently exists for the grandeur and wealth of a few while hiding behind Islam as they betray same and Muslims everywhere. The time has come for regime change in Saudi Arabia to yield a nation of and for the people of Saudi Arabia and the glory of Islam.
Connecticut vegetable lieberman: China Can Shut Down The Internet, Why Can’t We … (great logic from a totalitarian zionist)? Senator joe Zelig the zionist israeli lieberman, co-author of a bill that would give President Obama a ‘kill switch’ to shut down parts of the Internet, attempted to reassure CNN viewers yesterday that concerns about the government regulating free speech on the web were overblown, but he only stoked more alarm by citing China, a country that censors all online dissent against the state, as the model to which American should compare itself.
Soros Says ‘We Have Just Entered Act II’ of Crisis Bloomberg | Soros said the current situation in the world economy is “eerily” reminiscent of the 1930s. Gerald Celente: U.S. Financial Markets to Collapse by End of 2010 Infowars.com | Gerald Celente is a renowned trend forecaster, publisher of the Trends Journal, business consultant and author who makes predictions about the global financial markets and other events of historical importance. Jobless Claims in U.S. Decreased Last Week to 456,000 Bloomberg | More Americans than anticipated filed applications for unemployment benefits last week.
Market Outlook: Bearish Background to Bullish Storyline Sean Hannon: ‘The last two weekly market commentaries have discussed how the underlying trend of the market is now bearish and all rallies should be used to sell stocks and reduce risks. With nearly every news outlet spouting the bullish storyline, these articles served as an outline of a disciplined investment strategy. Those who followed the outline have done well as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow), S&P 500, and NASDAQ each declined over 5% since my initial warning. With the Dow still stuck below the psychologically important 10,000 level and all three major U.S. markets trading beneath their 200-day moving averages (MA), the bearish backdrop is clear. Even if many are still looking for a rally, we should understand that the primary trend is lower. Instead of focusing on how high prices will rally, we should instead consider how much further prices can fall …’
Greek Default Seen by Almost 75% in Poll Doubtful About Trichet Global investors have little confidence in Europe’s efforts to contain its debt crisis or in European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, with 73 percent calling a default by Greece likely. 12 Reasons Why The U.S. Housing Crash Is Far From Over Over the past several months, many in the mainstream media have hailed the slight improvement in the U.S. real estate market as a “housing recovery”. US Needs Austerity Too: Hedge Fund Strategist The United States will have to adopt austerity measures similar to the ones taken in Europe, because the problems faced are largely the same, Timothy Scala, macro-strategist at Sophis Investments, told CNBC.com. Market Analyst: ‘BP’s Not Going to Last as a Company More Than a Matter of Months’ We’ve heard politicians, even conservative Republicans, suggest BP would be held completely responsible for the devastation caused by the oil spill plaguing the Gulf of Mexico, even if it means its very existence.
US Media Terrified Of Mentioning USS Liberty Do you know that an american naval vessel was attacked by israel in international waters, 43 years ago today, resulting in the deaths of dozens of american sailors Arab lawmaker on flotilla sparks outrage in israel (AP) - An Israeli-Arab lawmaker's decision to join hundreds of activists on a pro-Palestinian flotilla has elevated her from relative political obscurity, transforming her into the poster child for the ...
DEBT POISED TO OVERTAKE GDP Key Indicators of a New Depression Neeraj Chaudhary | Great Depression II developing into something far more devastating than its predecessor You’re Being Decieved Infowars.com | We’re heading over an economic cliff and there’s nothing the government can or will do about it except lie. The Folly of Blindly Trusting the Government
‘What Does China Want?’ They want to speak to Rosanne Rosanna Danna, of course! ‘Asian markets tumble on fears over Hungary’ …Riiiiight! Hungary’s the thing! … Rosanne Rosanna Danna, formerly of SNL fame wanted in Asia to chime in with what her mama always used to say, ‘ It’s always something ‘ . Of course, it matters little to the frauds on wall street what the something is said to be since the reality is … ‘This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. This was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes.’ ( It should be noted, and there have been a multitude of other instances, that I’m getting substantial ‘attacks’ vis-ŕ-vis my internet connection which has slowed dramatically these posts. I don’t think the interference is either accidental nor just coincidental but consistent with corrupt defacto bankrupt america’s critics of which I am one and not alone in that regard – slowing, militating against the devastating truth about america.) Europe is Heading for a Depression Despite a nearly-$1 trillion rescue operation, financial conditions in the eurozone continue to deteriorate. All the gauges of market stress are edging upwards and credit default swaps (CDS) spreads have widened to levels not seen since the weekend of the emergency euro-summit. Key Indicators of a New Depression With the mainstream media focusing on the country’s leveling unemployment rate, improving retail sales, and nascent housing recovery, one might think that the US government has successfully navigated the economy through recession and growth has returned. Get Ready for a Double Dip … but many warning flags point towards significant deterioration in the U.S. and global economy going forward and so I think that by the end of the year or early 2011, we could very well be facing a new leg down in the world’s economic situation … [I’d say too optimistic since, to reiterate: This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. This was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes.]
european
central banks intervened to shore up the ever more worthless euro, buying into
that fraudulent wall street b*** s*** story that that ‘s a good thing, rallying
stocks off their lows. It is amazing how dumb europe has become so quickly. An
exception is what I believe was Germany’s steps against derivatives, which
market according to a derivatives trader on the radio this day is a $40
trillion market (missed his name). To reiterate as applicable to yet another
fraudulent scheme previously stated, said market is paper on paper moving
around and generating commissions at lightning computerized speed but adding no
real value in real economic terms; again, the analogy of termites eating away
at the (nation’s) foundation is apposite. As such, that money has to come from
some real place and hence, the ever more frequent and larger crashes we are
seeing. Don’t forget that the worthless paper from previous such fraudulent
schemes now marked to anything is still out there in a magnitude some have
placed in the hundreds of trillions.
The
Worst Money Supply Plunge Since The Depression Means A Double Dip Is Now A
‘Virtual Certainty’ The stock of U.S. money as measured by ‘M3′ money supply fell to $13.9 trillion from $14.2
trillion during the three months ending in April. [ This
is still an extraordinarily high level but … I don’t buy it. I believe the
printing presses have been working overtime to pump out ever more worthless
fiat currency and with the many trillions of worthless fraudulent paper still
out there and marked to anything. I further believe the same is being
surreptitiously used to supplant the fraudulent paper, the consequences of
which will be devastating, of course, as is invariably so in depressions in any
event. This scenario would also mean huge fraud accomplis. ]
Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level The bankster
operative who helped destroy Glass-Steagall is back. Larry Summers, Obama’s top
economic adviser, has told Congress to “grit its teeth” and approve a fresh
fiscal boost of $200 billion to keep growth on track, reports the Daily Telegraph.
Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level Kurt Nimmo
| The Federal Reserve stopped publishing M3 figures back in 2006.
The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined and disgorgement imposed. If that were so, they wouldn’t be worrying about who wins / loses since those who fraudulently play, invariably would (and should) pay. If they’re not prosecuted, everyone loses.
POST MORTEM AND REVIEW Ricky:
A post mortem is in order. The elements of this
worldwide con game are remarkably simple, not complex at all. Apparently you
only need a few things to make a mockery of the entire global economic system,
and big banks garnered these few important things through “regulatory capture”:
1) Unregulated, unenforced rules (particularly for
derivatives)
2) license to “mark to model” (assign your own values to your assets)
3) ability to peg present value to irrational expected future returns (based on
unlimited, exponential growth)
4) infinite leverage (no effective requirements for reserve capital in
unregulated “shadow” markets)
5) massive size, so that the bank is "too big to fail"
6) non-transparency and non-accountability.
SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY!
THE FORECASTS:
Harry Dent, Jr.
Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012
Russell Napier is the author of the book “Anatomy of the Bear”, a professor at the
Edinburgh Business School and a consultant to CLSA Ltd. which is one of the top
research houses in Asia. Napier’s research indicates (and I paraphrase) that:
The S&P 500 will Decline to 400 by 2014 (the Dow 30 to 3800)
The S&P 500 will then undergo a major crash that will see U.S. equity
prices bottom at almost 50% below current levels (i.e. to 400 or less; the Dow
30 to 3800 or less) sometime around 2014 as Tobin’s “q” drops to 0.3 signaling
the end of the bear market, as it has done at the end of the four largest U.S.
market declines in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982.
U.S. Treasury Sales Collapse Leading to End of U.S. Dollar as Reserve Currency
Robert R. Prechter Jr. is author of a number of newsletters and books including
“Elliott Wave Principle” (1978) in which he predicted the super bull market of
the 1980s; “At the Crest of the Tidal Wave – A Forecast of the Great Bear
Market” (1995) in which he predicted a slow motion economic earthquake, brought
about by a great asset mania, that would register 11 on the financial Richter
scale causing a collapse of historic proportions; and “Conquer the Crash: You
can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression” (2002) in which he
described the economic cataclysm that we are just beginning to experience and
advised how to position one’s self financially during that period of time.
Depression is Imminent
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to
below 777 which was the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and
quite likely drop below 400 at one or more times during the bear market.
According to the Debt Clock:
• Total national debt: $13 trillion
• Debt per citizen: $42,026
• Debt per taxpayer: $117,982
• Total interest due: $1.9 trillion
• Interest per citizen: $2,211
Click here to see the Debt Clock, which is updated every second.
• Total personal debt: $16.5 trillion
• Total mortgage debt: $14.1 trillion
• Total consumer debt: $2.45 trillion
• Personal debt per citizen: $53,483
• Debt held by foreign countries: $4.07
trillion
(Previously) I’d say this alito vs. wobama is a tempest in a teapot inasmuch as alito is more than just a lightweight, hack, liar, fraud etc., as set forth in the comments. alito is a criminal who should have served / should be serving time in prison for obstruction of justice, bribery, among other RICO violations. To alito, drug money is as green as corporate money and worth his vote as well. In addition to being an inept [I looked in on the one mob case he had brought, bungled, lost (accidently on purpose?) since I was suing some mob-connected under RICO and the court (I had known / previously met outside of court the judge Ackerman through a client) was absolute bedlam and a total joke since incompetent corrupt alito brought in all 20 mob defendants (rather than prosecute one or a few to flip them first) who feigning illness had beds/cots in the courtroom along with their moans during testimony and had the jury in stitches)] and corrupt (see below and particularly the summary provided to the FBI under penalty of perjury [ http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ] ) u.s. attorney.
You’re naďve to think that the so-called supreme court is any different from the rest of the meaningfully lawless and pervasively corrupt american ‘system’. I knew well an accomplished trial lawyer, fellow american college of trial lawyers / and a bar examiner, who pondered from time to time becoming a judge “so he’d never have to work again” – his words.
Some comments on alito…all appropriate:
Probably the worst appointment in one hundred years.
Posted by: mnjam
-----------------------
Really? That's a pretty sweeping statement to make about someone who's only been on the court a short few years.
And I thought that liberals were in universal agreement that Clarence Thomas was the worst appointment in all of history?
Posted by: blert | January 28, 2010 2:11
AM | Report abuse
----------------------------
Yes. Really. Alito is a total lightweight and hack. He makes Thomas look like
John Marshall or Oliver Wendell Holmes. I KNOW ALITO.
Posted by: mnjam | January 28, 2010 2:24 AM |
the loser here is alito.lost his composure not good for a judge especially
afederal or supreme justice .loser big time this will live with guy for a very
time.roberts and the other justices will have a talk with him that is a
given.this relly larger than o one day news cycle.
Posted by: donaldtucker | January 28, 2010 1:12 AM |
Should Alito resign or be impeached?
Posted by: jdmca | January 28, 2010 1:05 AM |
I include the first two comments to the foregoing headline:
Billo Says:
June 11th, 2010 at 6:15 am
Lunacy? Keep in mind that this country is run and controlled by lunatics. Our press government and military seem to take their orders from Israel. Isarel wants to be known as a pack of “mad dogs. Do we want “mad dogs” controlling us?
Here we see a bunch of phony accusations against Iran just like we did in the run up to the bogus wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and now Pakistan. The boy has cried wold ten thousand times. It’s time to identify the “lunatics” and kindly take away the car keys. If you won’t let your friends drive drunk, why do we let a bunch of “lunatic” enemies run this place.
Glen Reply:
June 11th, 2010 at 6:47 am
Lunacy it would be.
But it is also to their great credit that the Iranians have not made their own threats.
Everyone knows there are 3 WMD threats, Nuclear Biological and chemical. The scariest of which is Biological.
Any attack done under the threat of immediate biological retaliation would deter only the insane.
Watch out america home of the insane, home of the leaders who want an 80% population reduction.
The yardarm is the
remedy Dozens of our friends and comrades, of wonderful compassionate
activists are dead and wounded in the pirate attack in the high seas on
humanitarian aid boats. This is a dreadful crime that will forever be
remembered and should be punished. The Israeli pirates attacked the
humanitarian aid Freedom Flotilla in the international waters over 150 km out
of their territorial waters. The boats carried no arms; the participants
strictly adhered to Ghandian mode by asking the Greek and Cyprus authorities to
search the boats to avoid later claims that they were armed.
A Plague Upon The World: The USA is a “Failed State” Dr. Paul Craig Roberts | The American people are lost in la-la land. They have no idea that their civil liberties have been forfeited. US citizen killed on flotilla reportedly shot four times in head Raw Story | A forensic report said Furkan Dogan was shot at close range, with four bullets in his head and one in his chest, according to the Anatolian news agency. The explanation foisted off on the americans by war criminal israelis is probably something on the order of ‘they just wanted to make sure they missed him’. Roberts: ‘AIPAC purchases US elections’ Russia Today | Paul Craig Roberts says that there will be nothing that is going to be done by the United States to change the relationship with Israel.
‘US
funding terrorist group against Iran’ Press TV | A
member of a terrorist organization operating in Iran says that a US State
department radio station originally put him in touch with the group.
Paul Craig Roberts: Government Abandoned Vietnam POWs Kurt Nimmo | John McCain worked overtime to make sure Vietnam POWs never came home. I think the even bigger story vis-ŕ-vis mccain is: http://www.albertpeia.com/heroenot.htm ‘Did you know that that so-called "american heroe" john mccain was referred to by his fellow pows in Vietnam as something akin to the "songbird" inasmuch as he was constantly "singing" to his Viet-Cong captors to curry favor and better treatment? This has been documented with authority by Colonel David Hackworth. The same violates military code/protocol (other soldiers have been court-martialed for far less) click Here, Here. [ http://www.albertpeia.com/hackworth.htm ] But, you see, this covered up scenario, compromizing the false facade of far less than a heroe, is exactly what a criminal (lie of a) nation as america loves and encourages (get everyone's hands dirty so no-one dares to rectify same, ie., bush, sr., clinton, bush, jr.). That is, "toe the (corrupt, propagandized) line", become a criminal, or be exposed, prosecuted, and/or ruined; and, hasn't anyone asked how "wall street" has been "spared the spotlight" (and even was accorded protective legislation from their criminal culpability) and focus of inquiry, attention, and prosecution despite being the primary beneficiaries financial and otherwise of these scams (you know the wall street motto, "churn and earn"; huge conflicts of interest if not outright fraud)…’
Coalition wants UK space lift-off [ Don’t make me laugh! ]
Israel’s Nukes Out of the Shadows Israel faces unprecedented pressure to abandon its official policy of “ambiguity” on its possession of nuclear weapons as the international community meets at the United Nations in New York this week to consider banning such arsenals from the Middle East.
NASA wants mission to bring Martian rocks to Earth (AP) Why? They already have that and more:
Launch of secret US space ship masks even more secret launch of new weapon
http://www.albertpeia.com/UFOetryWeNeverWentToTheMoonPNTV.wmv
[To the Professor at the beginning of the course]
10-5-09
Postscript: Professor *****,
I felt compelled to thank you again for the add; not to curry your favor but
indeed to express profound thanks inasmuch as this is probably the last formal
course at a formal educational institution I'll ever take; and among the most
important. While I had bought at discount a library-discarded 1993 Anthropology
by Embers text, though meaning to read same never quite got to it. I am
astounded by the substantial amount of time involved in the evolutionary
process, not that I ever stopped to think about it, and one must come away with
the sense of 'and all that...for this?'. This course should be required
curriculum along with psychology, sociology, etc., but probably won't be owing
to what is, as it should be, a very humbling educational experience for any
member of the human race.
Regards,
Al Peia
Drudgereport:
KRUGMAN:
'We are now, I fear, in the early stages of a third depression'...
STOCKS HIT LOWEST OF YEAR...
DEBT
SOARS TO HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE WWII...
PRIVATE SECTOR SEES WEAKER JUNE JOBS...
Sputtering...
Dow Loses 10% in Q2...
Fed
Officials Express Caution on Outlook, Avoid Talk of Further Stimulus...
NEW CLASHES IN ATHENS...
Greeks
Walk Off Job...
NEARLY
2,000 PAGES: The legislation would redraw how money flows through economy...
Bank stocks soar … see new old opportunities for new old
frauds ...
buzz
aldrin wants to colonize Mars … Riiiiight buzzed! Better check with Dipalma to
see if he already has the footage in the can since you won’t be able to use the
moon footage for the new boondoggle video ...
WSJNBCNEWS:
Confidence Waning in Obama, U.S. Outlook...
SCARY
OBAMA: 'VERY DIFFICULT CHOICES AHEAD' ON DEFICITS
CHICAGOLAND BOMBSHELL: Obama knew plot to trade Cabinet post
for appointing Jarrett to Senate -- Testimony...
RAHM DELIVERED THE LIST...
BLAGO TAPE: Get Obama to fundraise from Buffett, Gates...
Greece puts its islands up for sale in futile attempt to save
economy...
DEUTSCHE BANK says US financial conditions are worse...
New
home sales plunge 33%...
Record
low...
CIA:
AFGHAN PROGRESS 'SLOWER' THAN ANTICIPATED… Daaaaah! ...
GEN.
PRAYFORUS
JUNE:
DEADLIEST MONTH...
Obama's
choice suggests longer troop presence...
Obama doubles down
on war...
New General,
Old Strategy...
President's real problem: War plan in trouble...
WIRES:
Gen.'s remarks echo troubled strategy...
'Doubt
among soldiers that counterinsurgency will work'...
REPORT: Traded Favors with Blago...
Sticker
Shock Among Dems Jeopardizing Obama's Agenda...
CHINA
TO OVERTAKE USA IN MANUFACTURING...
Canada's
economy suddenly the envy of world...
Germany
Rejects Obama's Call on Growth, Stoking G-20 Conflict...
States Take
Aim at Pension Costs...
...Bank
failure pace more than double last year
REPORT:
Madoff tells cellmates of $9 billion stash... they all have them … Cases
against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud
FANNIE
AND FREDDIE tab 146B and rising; Foreclosed on home every 90 seconds...
THOMAS
SOWELL: Is USA Now On Slippery Slope To Tyranny?
DEBT RISE TO
$19,600,000,000,000.00 BY 2015
GALLUP: NEW LOW FOR O, SLIPS TO 44%...
POLL:
Voter support for Congress at all-time low...
GALLUP:
Obama's Weekly Job Approval Rating Skid...
RASMUSSEN
POLL...
Obama
Approval Falls to New Low: 42%
Obama
Approval Index: -20
Strongly
Approve 24%
Strongly
Disapprove 44%
Total
Approval 42%
UN rebukes of
Israel permitted in US policy shift...
DEBT
POISED TO OVERTAKE GDP
WH
PRESS QUEEN: JEWS GET OUT OF ISRAEL, GO BACK TO POLAND … UPON REFLECTION, A
GOOD IDEA … AFTER ALL, THE ENGLISH BALFOUR DECLARATION WAS A PRO-COMMUNIST
CONCESSION, A BAD IDEA, AND THE CREATION OF ISRAEL U.S. DOD CHIEF JAMES
FORRESTAL OPPOSED IN 1948 AS AN AMERICA KILLER!
'Three
Cheers for Helen Thomas'...
Census
Worker Claims Job Numbers Being Inflated...
Bilderberg
2010: Between the sword and the wall...
Protesters
'being detained, searched, questioned'...
Final
List of Participants...
Stephen Hawking: Aliens exist but don't talk to them --
it's too dangerous … might not like us… Oh pshaw! … Human nature, man’s
inhumanity to man? … Such humble beginnings and evolutionary history …
What’s not to like? … Besides, not to worry. With their advanced
technologies that defy human understanding, the aliens already know you’re here
… to stay. So, not to worry. After all, as we know from that documentary of
that same name, ‘Earth Girls Are Easy’ … and then there’s photosynthesis on
earth in a very big way also going for it! ...
Seeing
Aliens Will Likely Take Centuries. Centuries? Not goin’ to happen; at best,
decades.
Buffett: We're Still in a Recession [ Wow! A moment of lucidity from Buffet
which belies his prior ‘rosy wall street shill talk’, but his greater candor is
welcomed nonetheless although the ‘d’ (for depression) word is more appropriate
and accurate.] Roche ‘Warren Buffett
disagrees with the NBER. He says we’re still in a recession and likely to
remain in a recession for quite a while. These comments are far more tempered
than the ones that were published last week. Of
course, my favorite part in this clip is where he says the U.S. government did
the right thing in responding to the crisis. They certainly did the right thing
for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
shareholders. Whether or not they did the right thing for America is a whole
other story…’ [ And, of course we now know that it wasn’t the right thing for
america … The question inevitably
becomes, ‘Who’s manipulating who, what, and why? After all, we know defacto
bankrupt america’s pervasively corrupt! ]
Look Out Below! Harding ‘…And at a time when last week’s weekly AAII investor sentiment poll
showed 50.9% bullish? That’s the highest level of bullishness and complacency
since it reached 54.6% bullish in October, 2007 near the October, 2007 top of
the 2003-2007 bull market. The other higher reading was 53.3% bullish on May 1,
2008, as the market ended a bear market rally and plunged into its unfavorable
season leg down of 2008. Other readings not quite as high, but at interesting
times: The poll reached 49.2% bullish just prior to the Jan/Feb correction this
year, and 48.5% bullish at the April top this year …’
Thursday
Market Outlook: Listening to Herbert Hoover Instratrader Indicators:
‘Red
Flag: We Expect Lower Prices Ahead
Daily Technical Sentiment Indicators: Optimistic (Bearish)
Short Term Market Condition: Overbought (short term bearish)
Short Term Trend: Up
Medium Term Trend: Down
Long Term Trend: Down
So
far, this week’s news and market action looks decidedly deflationary and even
depression-like and so I went back in time to see what President Herbert
Hoover, often blamed for the Great Depression, had to say about his times and
to see what we might be able to learn from him about the times we live in.
Some
of his most prescient and applicable quotes were:
“Let
me remind you that credit is the lifeblood of business, the lifeblood of prices
and jobs.” (Certainly an issue today and our money center banks should pay
heed)
“It
is just as important that business keep out of government as that government
keep out of business.” (No doubt about it. Every policy maker in America needs
to understand this.)
I’m
the only person of distinction who has ever had a depression named for him.”
(President Obama might be the second.)
“Economic depression cannot be cured by legislative action or
executive pronouncement. Economic wounds must be healed by the action of the
cells of the economic body – the producers and consumers themselves.”
(Dr.
Bernanke and his colleagues really need to “get” this one, and judging from
what I’m reading this week, I’m not sure they do.)
And,
finally, old Herb had a morbid sense of humor when he said, “Blessed are
the young for they shall inherit the national debt.” (Unfortunately still
too true today.)
So
apparently as the old saying goes: “The more things change, the more they stay
the same.”
This
week so far has been more than a little spooky and reminiscent of Herbert
Hoover’s times as we listened to Dr. Bernanke and the FOMC warn of deflation
and further quantitative easing and then read today’s housing report which
indicated that home prices declined in July by -0.5%.
The
FOMC said that “the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in
recent months…and that “employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing
starts are at a depressed level. Bank lending has continued to contract, but at
a reduced rate in recent months.”
“Measures
of underlying inflation are currently at levels somewhat below those the
Committee judges most consistent, over the longer run, with its mandate to
promote maximum employment and price stability…..the Committee will continue to
monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and is prepared to
provide additional accommodation if needed to support economic recovery and to
return inflation, over time, to levels consistent with its mandate.”
So
in a nutshell, deflation is a major concern, the $1.5 Trillion the Fed has
thrown on this fire has failed to work and now they stand ready to throw more
money at this problem in hopes of keeping our economic ship from sinking.
It’s
clear what the market thinks of all of this as Treasury bonds continue to rally
and gold heads for the stratosphere. Equities cheered Dr. Bernanke’s comments
at first but then, realizing that deflation is a bad thing, settled back down
to well below the top of the recent range.
One
only needs to look at history to see that government efforts have little impact
on ending depressions and deflation. The Great Depression didn’t end until the
onset of World War II and Japan is a prime example of the ongoing failure of
quantitative easing policies as they enter their second “lost decade.”
Today
comes the jobs report, home sales and leading economic indicators and we’ll see
if any light shines from this most recent data.
Technically,
markets remain overbought and due for a correction and so from a fundamental,
technical and seasonal perspective, we are in treacherous waters for sure.
We
need to learn from Herbert Hoover’s words and experience or fall victim to
George Santayana’s famous warning, “Those who do not remember the past are
condemned to repeat it.”
Wall
Street Sector Selector remains positioned to the “short” side of the market,
expecting choppy to lower prices ahead.
Disclosure: SH, EFZ, SEF, SPY put option’
Am
I Too Bearish? [ In a word, No! ] Cullen Roche ‘1) Am I too bearish? Some commenters have noted that I seem
a bit too bearish all the time. Some have even gone so far as to imply that I
am a permabear. These are fair comments, but require some clarification. The
other day I mentioned my top down approach to the markets. Most of
what I write about here at Pragmatic Capitalism is a macro view. Therefore, you
get a heavy dose of macro with a dollop of micro. I am of the belief that we
are in a secular bear and a balance sheet recession. Therefore, you get a
pretty heavy dose of bearish arguments thrown at you. Nonetheless, I try to
balance the site out with some of the more reasonable bullish arguments. What I
am not, however, is a permabear. Within this macro outlook I have been bullish
at many of the most opportune moments in the last few years. Most notable was my bottom call on March 8th when everyone in
the universe was negative and I said the government was about to engage in an
unprecedented market intervention that would be bullish for stocks. More
recently on September 1st I was asked specifically if I was shorting the
market. My response:
Ideally I would, however, I think it’s
dangerous to build shorts right now. If the market is about to collapse then
it’s about the most widely known collapse ever. Markets don’t tank when
everyone is this bearish unless there is some sort of extreme event (which
isn’t occurring currently). I think the April period when I was very negative
(and short) is a great example.
I have actually been looking for a spot
to get long even though my macro outlook is negative (which it has been for
several years).
Now, in fairness, I did not buy for my
macro equity strategy so don’t take this as some form of revisionist history
where I am patting myself on the back for a trade that never occurred. On
September 2nd I got what I later referred to as a “soft buy signal” as opposed
to a conviction buy signal (more on this below). In hindsight it’s easy to say
that I should have had more conviction in the signal and simply bought stocks,
but that’s not my modus operandi. As I have previously explained, I have rules
within my micro outlook that guide my various strategies and approaches. I
trade the indicators (in this case a proprietary algorithm) and not the market.
My rules tell me when to buy, sell and short. If my strict rules are not met I
do not act.I have often referred to myself as a lion in the grass. The lion is
not greedy. She does not just run wildly across the plains chasing antelope
(thinking of day traders here). Instead, she devises a plan and lies in wait as
the plan unfolds to her liking. If the environment is not right she does not
act. There is too much at stake for her to make mistakes and risk losing a meal
that might feed an entire pride for weeks or months. My mentality is no
different. I am not frantically trading therefore you get a small dose of my
trading perspective. Instead, I am measuring the risk environment day by day
waiting for the antelope to step just close enough so I can react in a way that
gives me very good odds of being right, fat and well fed for many months.
2) Quantifying the disequilibrium. As I previously mentioned, I use
several strategies. One of these is global macro, however, it has never been my
strong suit. It never has been, but it is an approach I have grown increasingly
confident about in recent years (a little luck in a tough market environment
apparently results in a bit of hubris). Within this strategy I have an equity
component. I use dozens of different indicators that measure the markets on a
daily basis. These indicators are best summed in an indicator I call quantified
disequilibrium. It is a short-term indicator that measures whether the market
is excessively risky or not. It combines fundamental analysis with behavioral
finance in an attempt to measure the disequilibrium in the market. Since its
inception in 2008 it has resulted in 74% total returns vs -22% for the S&P
500. Trade win rate is 84%. I have not calculated risk adjusted returns for the
index, but I am certain that they are impressive. Some of its more notable
calls include shorting the market crash of 2008, shorting
the flash crash of 2009 and buying in early March 2009. After issuing a soft
buy signal on September 2nd the index is now flashing the warning signal (but
not a short signal). This does not mean the market is necessarily about to
decline, but merely means that the risk/reward profile has deteriorated
substantially in recent weeks. (chart)
3) Revisiting Swedish models. Some people in this country have a big
problem with Swedish models. I certainly don’t. Throughout much of 2008 I
mentioned that there were two historical approaches to tackling a debt crisis –
the Japan model and the Swedish model. The results were dramatically different.
In essence, the Swedes took their medicine. They bit the bullet, forced the
banks to take losses and helped stem a panic from occurring. The Japan outcome,
as we all know, has not been quite so successful. They allowed zombie banks to
earn their way out of the crisis and largely avoided taking their medicine. On
the consumer front the U.S. has implemented similar strategies. In general cash
for clunkers, homebuyers tax credits, bank bailouts, etc have all been attempts
to paper over he debt problem. It clearly hasn’t worked. We have attempted to
create capitalism without losers. There is no such thing. In September of 2008 I
wrote a letter to the Federal Reserve. It said:
I am writing this letter with regards
to the current banking crisis. As you likely know there is precedent for the
issues we are currently facing. Not only did Japan enter a similar deflationary
period in 1991, but Scandinavia entered an even more similar period around the
same time. I have attached the contact info and a paper with a descriptive
response to the issue by Arne Berggren. I hope you will forward this message to
the appropriate sources as it contains brilliant insight into a situation that
is very similar to our current predicament. And please thank the board for
their hard work during these trying times. http://www.fdic.gov/bank/historical/managing/sym1-09.pdf
I wonder how different the world would
be today if we had allowed more banks to be nationalized (or failed) while
focusing our time and energy on the real crux of this crisis – Main Street.
Instead, we listened to men who were either misguided and/or had a vested
interest in saving the banks (Buffett, Paulson, Geithner, Bernanke, etc). It
would be humorous if it hadn’t hurt so many millions of people. My guess is the
long-term outlook for the U.S. economy would be far better than it is today if
we had not repeated the mistakes of the past.’
Thursday:
Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble [ As is obvious, things are getting quite
dicey on fraudulent wall street and there’s a typical plethora of insanity in
the air (of wall street).] ‘
"I’m
forever blowing bubbles,
Pretty bubbles in the air,
They fly so high, nearly reach the sky,
Then like my dreams they fade and die.
Fortune’s always hiding,
I’ve looked everywhere,
I’m forever blowing
bubbles,
Pretty bubbles in the air."
Gold,
Treasuries,
Junk Bonds,
Netflix (NFLX)
(we shorted them yesterday), Priceline (PCLN)
(we shorted them Monday), Credit
Default Swaps - take your pick of what is
going to be the next bubble to burst.
We shorted TLT
again yesterday ($105) as I sure wouldn’t lend the US money at those rates and
neither, it seems, will the "smart money" guys anymore. The cost
to hedge against losses on U.S. government debt rose to the most in six weeks
as investors bet the Federal Reserve will put more cash into the economy.
Credit-default swaps on U.S. Treasuries climbed 1.7 basis points, the biggest
increase in more than three weeks, to 49.4, according to data provider CMA. The
Fed said Tuesday that slowing inflation and sluggish growth may require further
action. The statement positioned the central bank to expand its near-record
$2.3 trillion balance sheet as soon as their November meeting - just in time
for a Santa Clause boost for the markets.
So why does this
not make us bullish? Well, as
I said to Members on Tuesday, it was an anticipated statement with no
immediate action and we’re at the top of a 10% run for September so, as
I said in yesterday’s post, we anticipate a pullback of 2%, back to our 4%
line (see post). Also in yesterday’s post, I mentioned our IWM
9/30 $67 puts ($1.10) and the DIA Oct $105 puts (.89) both of which were good
for a reload on yesterday’s silly spike, where I said to Members in the 9:56
Alert:
I like the same IWM and DIA puts as yesterday as we
test 10,800 on the Dow - I don’t think it’s going to last. Tomorrow we lose the
usual 450,000 jobs for the week and we have Existing Home Sales at 10, which
can now disappoint as Building Permits were a big upside surprise yesterday. We
also get Leading Economic Indicators at 10 but they are expected up just 0.1%
and I doubt they go negative. Friday we have Durable Goods, which should be
down 2% and New Home Sales at 10, also now set up to disappoint even the very
low 291,000 expected. So caution, caution, caution PLEASE!
I had already mentioned in the morning post that
"bear is the word" and this is where the free readers tend to get
confused because I was all bullish for the beginning of the month but, as I say
often enough and as our Members know very well - I am not bullish, I am
RANGEISH - which is a very different thing. 10,700 is the top of our range and
with the Russell failing to confirm our 5% line at 666 (they hit it but didn’t
hold it) kept us cautious and then we turn to the news flow to see if we’re
going to have the gas to get past our major resistance lines and, so far, no -
we do not.
Right in yesterday’s morning post I said: "The
weak dollar will mask a weak market this morning and that will support
commodities and the commodity pushers in early trading but watch that dollar,
which will likely get bought up by the BOJ at some point and that will send oil
and copper down and those strong sectors will pull back and likely lead us back
down to test our 4% levels at Dow 10,608, S&P 1,112, Nas 2,288, NYSE 7,072
and Russell 660." Just to be clear, I don’t MAKE the markets do these
things - I can only tell you what the market is going to do and how to make
money trading it but I’m not the guy with his hand on the switch, so don’t
blame me. We flip-flop when we have to because the market changes every day and
whether you are a bull or a bear, you are likely to be wrong soon.
Speaking of being wrong, that’s what we were about
gold at the beginning of the week when we looked at GLL for a short position at
$1,280. We are scaling in, of course but, as I said about gold in yesterday’s
chat:
"It’s a bubble. The same statements they are
making now were made about housing and oil and tulips. Just keep in mind that
that doesn’t stop gold from going to $3,000, just like oil went to $147, up 47%
in the last Quarter before it crashed and it ended up all the way at $35 yet
"that time is was different" and 1,000 experts told me I was wrong for
all of ‘07 and ‘08 and, for 75% of that time - THEY WERE RIGHT!"
Even as gold flies up to $1,299 and copper tags
$3.594 in overnight trading, commodities
under management dropped 2.3% last month from a record $300Bn to $293Bn.
This was the first pullback since January as investors withdrew $5Bn from
commodity index swaps - the first monthly decline in 5 years! “There was concern
about the U.S. and concern about China that spooked the market,” according
to Barclays Capital.
There’s even some in-fighting within the Gang of 12
as Morgan Stanley says investors should buy the lowest-rated corporate debt,
while Goldman Sachs says stay away. Bonds graded CCC in the U.S. are the “cheapest”
high- yield securities with “economic data once again beginning to surprise
to the upside,” Morgan Stanley told clients yesterday in a report. Goldman
Sachs says higher-rated speculative-grade debt is the way to go as the economy
decelerates.
And what should we do when mommy and daddy are
fighting like this? Cash out and go stay at a friend’s house is my advice. The
September move may not be over but it sure does look fake at this point and
making 10% in a month is plenty for most people’s year so I’m leaning towards
quitting while we’re ahead and getting prepared to flip aggressively bearish if
our 4% levels don’t hold.
Of course, this is just the follow-through of the
pattern we expected post-Fed (see charts in
Tuesday’s chat) so we’re just going to enjoy the
ride down and we reserve the right to get bullish again (and this does
not affect our long-term, hedged trades, just our directional short-term bets)
- pending earnings reports, of course.
As we expected, jobs are a bust with weekly
unemployment up 12K to 465,000, that’s dipping the US futures about 1% and we
still have Existing Home Sales and Leading Economic Indicators at 10, which
were already reasons we took bearish positions yesterday. The key is going to
be what kind of volume we get on the way down and what levels hold up to give
us a clue of whether we are still at the top of our 10,200, 1,070 range or
whether we indeed can call our former mid-range new floor. Oil broke yesterday,
as we expected (very nice for the OIH puts) and today’s natural gas report at
10:30 is not likely to cheer them up and $73.50 would be a shame to fail. We’ve
been tracking the barrel counts over at the NYMEX in member chat and there is
still quite a stockpile that needs to be worked off - another bearish factor
that’s kept us on our toes as we approached our upside goals.
Asia
was mixed this morning but mostly closed for holidays with the BSE posting yet
another decline. We looked at some BRIC shorts yesterday, including India but I
favored BGZ (ultra-short emerging
markets) to shorting IFN (India ETF), which gives fantastic bang for
the bearish buck.
The
shine is coming off India as they’ve butchered their chance to impress people
by hosting the 54-nation Commonwealth Games, with some countries threatening to
pull out just weeks before training begins. Work for the Games has been plagued
by construction delays, allegations of corruption and friction between
officials of the Games Federation and the local organizing committee. A
heavier-than-usual monsoon season made finishing the work harder. Some
completed venues sprouted bad leaks.
Ireland’s
GDP also sprang a bad leak in Q2 as an
unexpected 1.2% decline casts serious doubts on the country’s ability to
cut the deficit by 3%, feeding concerns over Dublin’s ability to repay it’s
debts without outside help. Although "economists" called it wrong,
the report is pretty much in-line with the IMF’s expectations, which were far
more bearish so not a huge event but worth watching as a sentiment changer,
nonetheless. Private
sector growth dropped 5% throughout the Euro-zone to 53.8, down from 56.2
in August. Above 50 is still growing but, like Ireland’s GDP, these little
set-backs can add up to a change in investor sentiment very quickly.
An
appreciation of 20 percent in China’s currency would cause widespread
bankruptcies in China’s export sector, where firms operate on thin margins, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said on
Wednesday. "The conditions for a major appreciation of the
renminbi do not exist," Wen said in a speech to U.S. businessmen in
New York. He said the appreciation of China’s currency demanded by U.S.
lawmakers would not bring jobs back to the United States because U.S. firms no
longer make such labor-intensive products.
The Premier is in New York to get his ass kissed by
Obama while we pretend to get tough on Chinese currency. As I mentioned last
week, China has stopped bying US Treasuries and, for the moment, Japan is
filling the gap - but how long will that last as Japan is pressured to apply
more stimulus at home?
We’ll be on our toes as we test each of our levels on
the way down. Hopefully those 4% lines will hold, which would be impressive
with all this negative noise. Durable Goods is ahead of the bell tomorrow
morning and it’s very unlikely that report is good and we also get record-low
New Home Sales at 10 so there’s nothing to be bullish about into tomorrow’s
open and next week we see our own GDP along with Case-Shiller, Consumer
Confidence, Personal Income & Spending, ISM and Auto Sales so busy, busy
into earnings.
Disclosure: None’
A
Warning for the Bulls Cam Hui ‘As NBER
has declared the recession over and with the SPX decisively rallied
through technical resistance at 1130, traders should be tilting towards the
bullish side, right?Not necessarily. Barry Ritholz posted on the 10 things that make him nervous about the
market. I generally agree with Barry's assesssments and I would like to add a
few more of my own. While I don't have ten items, here is what is bothering me
about stocks at the current levels.
Technicals pointing to economic deterioration
Analyzing relative charts, sectors/industries relative to the market, can tell
you a lot about what the consensus is thinking. Here is the relative chart of
the Morgan Stanley Cyclicals Index: (chart)The chart looks like an inverted
saucer to me - which is bearish. The cyclicals deteriorated through a relative
uptrend in May and are now in a relative downtrend. This is not the picture of
a robust economic recovery.What's more, when I look at housing, as proxied by
XHB against the market, it isn't signalling a rip roaring recovery either.
(chart)As well, the Banking Index looks terrible against the market. This
picture looks a lot like the relative chart of the cyclicals - a relative
downtrend within an inverted saucer top formation. Without leadership from the
Financials, can a new upleg be launched?(chart)For the followers of my Inflation-Deflation Timer mode, I refer to my latest comment indicating that I am getting
very mixed signals. The model has moved to a technical "inflation"
signal. I would tend to discount that signal and remain in "neutral"
because of the anomolous condition of strong commodity prices and falling bond
yields.
Watch out for the double-tip talk
John Hussman has been writing in the last several weeks
about impending deterioration in economic indicators [emphasis added]:
As I've emphasized in recent weeks, the
U.S. economy is still in a normal "lag window" between deterioration
in leading measures of economic activity and (probable) deterioration in
coincident measures. Though the lags are sometimes variable, as we saw in 1974
and 2008, normal lags would suggest an abrupt softening in the September
ISM report (due in the beginning of October), with new claims
for unemployment softening beginning somewhere around mid-October.
It's possible that the historically tight relationships that we've reviewed iin
recent weeks will not hold in this particular instance, but we have no
reasonable basis to expect that. Indeed, if we look at the drivers of economic
growth outside of the now fading impact of government stimulus spending, we
continue to observe little intrinsic activity.
Already, the employment picture is
ominous:
Sucker's
Rally? Reitmeister ‘Why am I trimming profits when the market seems to be
rallying?
Market Rallies on 'Recession End': Is This a Joke? Satwaves ‘We learned Monday that the
recession that has gripped this country for the last two and a half years
actually ended in June of 2009. The markets rallied on the news, yet left a lot
of my readers asking what it meant. One of our members whom happens to own over
thirty wireless phone stores for example, explained that before the recession,
a great month meant 150 to 200 activations per store. A good month resulted in
100 to 150 activations per store, while a not-so-good month came in between 80
to 100 activations per store. Since the recession took hold, this subscriber
considers himself lucky to acheive 50 to 65 activations per store, per month.
Not wanting to let go of employees with families, this member continues to pay
his employees out of his own pocket in the hope that things will get better. Is
the recession really over for him? The answer will surprise you. The short answer
is yes. Economists define a recession as two quarters of negative GDP growth.
In layman's terms, it means only that things stopped getting worse as of June
2009. It does not signify that anything has improved. Think of a receding
hairline if you will. Just because it has stopped receding does not mean new
hair has grown back. For my friend, and millions of small business owners like
him nationwide, things stopped getting worse back in June of 2009. A bottom had
been established. Unfortunately, this is where most Americans find themselves
living these days. The question going forward is how to fix it. Economists are
looking for moderate growth of about 2.6% as we climb out of the recession.
Let's apply this factor to the gentleman in the example above. Instead of 50 to
65 activations per month, my friend can look forward to that number increasing
to 52 to 67 activations per month over the coming year. This is not something
my friend is happy about, and needless to say he gets quite upset when he hears
people touting the end of the recession. This will not create jobs. This will
not end foreclosures. This will not put an end to the record number of poverty
stricken Americans this country now has to contend with. There is a solution
however, but unfortunately it would require the politicians on Capital Hill to
put aside their differences and actually work for the benefit of the people
they represent. It would require a sitting Democratic President to accept an
idea from his former Republican rival. Americans want jobs, not unemployment
checks and certainly not government programs designed to acclimate people to a
life of poverty. The government can and should create those jobs, by building
nuclear power plants across the country. Just as job creation in infrastructure
lead us out of the great depression, so too can it lead the country now. By now
everyone knows about the troubled electrical grid our country faces. Oil and
coal generate most of the power we use today. Still, on a hot summer day air
conditioning usage results in blackouts in cities and towns across the nation.
A new movement is now underway which will test our capacities like never
before, in the way of the electric automobile. Where will the power needed come
from? I know of one non-public company for instance that has ordered 6000 such
cars. Although the idea was first presented by a Republican, a Democrat has the
ability to say today that it is a good idea whose time has come. Let both take
credit and let America and its people prosper. Nuclear power plants will create
jobs in every field from architecture and engineering to food service. It will
put to work thousands of carpenters, electricians, plumbers, drywall
installers, roofers, landscapers, excavators and the like who will purchase
everything from groceries to shoes and yes....even that brand new Droid along
with a two year activation. Disclosure: No positions
Investor
'Sugar High' Becomes 'Sugar Crash'
Reitmeister … I am highly amused
by the different reactions that took place after the FOMC Meeting Announcement.
In particular day traders acted like hyperactive children at a birthday party.
Instead of screaming for more cake, candy and cola they pounded the table for
more stimulus. So when they saw the Fed leaning more in that direction they
pushed up the Dow by 100 points in just minutes. Investors came in a bit later
to find the traders crashing from the “sugar high”. You could say that the
investors were like the parents who needed to clean up after the children’s
mess. What investors heard from the announcement was “if the Fed is ready to
use more stimulus, then economy must be a LOT worse off than we suspected”.
From there the traders rally was deflated and the market ended the day in the
red. It will be interesting to see which sentiment prevails going forward …’
The
Great Recession is Over. Long Live the Great Deleveraging Marta ‘… The NBER
declared that the recession that began in December 2007 ended in June 2009. The
18-month recession represents the longest since the end of WWII. The problem
with declaring the recession over is that it suggests an end to the Great
Recession. The term Great Recession relies on a misguided concept of the latest
period of negative growth as a normal downturn in the business cycle, even if
on a global scale. Furthermore, in circumscribing the situation within an
18-month period, the term fails to appreciate the breadth, depth and enormity
of the recent - and ongoing - crisis. Think back on the Great Depression. At
least that phrase contains the word, “depression,” which carries with it the
stigma of a really, really bad, multi-year, economic downturn. However, even
that term proves inadequate … What is
happening right now, and what has been happening in fits and starts since 2000,
is the Great Deleveraging, which in many ways parallels the origins and path of
the Great Depression. From 1991 to 2000, just as from 1918 to 1929, the world
enjoyed the benefits of The End of History (end of the Cold War), known in the
former period as The War to End All Wars. The benefits showed up in the period
of “Irrational Exuberance”, known in the earlier period as the “Roaring ‘20’s.”
The “Crash of ‘29” was mirrored by implosion of the Internet Bubble in 2000.
However, a Depression did not ensue in the ‘00’s because the Fed and the
Federal government responded in exactly the opposite way that they did in 1929
and the early-‘30’s. In 2001-2003, the Fed cut interest rates and the Federal
government cut taxes. An economic recovery ensued. However, just as growth
during the ‘30’s proved ephemeral and sporadic, the recovery of the early- to
mid-‘00’s proved unsustainable. In fact, the above-mentioned policies during
the early-‘00’s, in concert with other government initiatives like “a home for
every American”, increased leverage for large banks, and a failure to regulate
hedge funds, actually caused something of another “roaring ‘20’s” that ended in
tears in 2007 with the collapse of home lending and then hedge funds. The
financial system continued to teeter through 2007, before the start of the
Great Recession, and nearly collapsed in 2008. To those who believe that the
financial collapse is complete and that the end of the Great Recession marks
the end of an economic cycle, if not all our economic woes, you are likely to
be surprised when you look back in 10 to 15 years and discover that the term
Great Recession spans a much longer period than originally thought; just as the
term "Great Depression" has been expanded to an indeterminate end
date. There are several reasons that the Great Deleveraging will continue.
First, the toxins have not been fully purged from the international banking
system, and so financial intermediation will remain significantly impaired.
Second, private citizens have yet to fully delever. For example, in the US,
many individuals and families are slowly bleeding out financially, trying to
offset underemployment in jobs paying considerably less than those lost in the
past two years by slowly draining savings to pay for houses that cannot be
sold. Third, the governments of several nations, as well as the ECB, the Fed
and the IMF, have onboarded or underwritten many of the toxins from the private
financial system. These bailouts, combined with the excesses of government
forays into excessive social welfare programs, will lead to crises in the
future. For example, in the US, government leaders still fail to act on the
insolvencies of social security, Medicare and Medicaid. Instead, they
outrageously create even more healthcare entitlements and promise that there
will be no extra cost. Fourth, some governments, like the U.S. and Japan, have
engaged in fruitless Keynesian stimulus projects that have worsened the countries’
fiscal situations without providing the hoped-for growth. In fact, the
situation is becoming dire enough that we are beginning to see competitive
quantitative easing, which presents Japan with the specter of yet another
recession, deflation and a third lost decade. As they try to save their own
economy, they will put more pressure on the economies of their trading partners
and competitors. At some point, all the balance sheets, those of individuals,
banks, governments, central banks and extra-national entities like the IMF,
will need to be purged in order to right the global economy. This is the Great
Deleveraging, and it’s got years to run before it finally burns out.’
IS THE RECESSION
REALLY OVER? , ON TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 21, 2010, 12:29 PM EDT
The National
Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - a panel of economists entrusted with the
responsibility to officially declare the beginning and end of recessions -
declared the end of this recession. But wait, amidst the sound of popping
champagne corks, the snore of complacency and a cheer leading media, you can
hear the economy's distress signals.
THE GOOD
NEWS
But who likes
to hear about gloom and doom. Let's focus on the good news. As per NBER, the
longest recession the country has endured since World War II officially ended
in June 2009 (see chart below). During this recession, the economy has lost
over 7 million jobs while the major market indexes a la Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI),
S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC), and Russell 2000 (Chicago
Options: ^RUT) lost well over 50% of their value. By declaring that the
recession ended 14 months ago, NBER takes advantage of the much-coveted privilege
of evaluating the economy in hindsight, as it did in December 2008 when it
declared that the recession had started 12 month earlier. (chart)
Investors
don't have the luxury of placing trades based on hindsight and need to rely on
forward looking data, not the rear view mirror. Based purely on forward looking
indicators, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter predicted the biggest counter
trend rally since the October all-time highs on March 2, 2009 and recommended buying
long and leveraged long ETFs, such as the Financial Select Sector SPDRS
(NYSEArca: XLF - News), Technology Select Sector
SPDRs (NYSEArca: XLK - News), Ultra S&P ProShares
(NYSEArca: SSO - News), Ultra Financial ProShares
(NYSEArca: UYG - News) and many others. Are
forward looking indicators now in line with NBER?
THE BAD
NEWS
What does the
NBER base its decisions on? To make its determination, the NBER looks at
figures that make up the nation's gross domestic product, incomes, employment,
and industrial activity.
GROSS
DOMESTIC PRODUCT
Obviously,
recent downward revisions to the GDP did not prevent NBER from its assessment
that the recession had ended. The chart below shows recent revisions to GDP. (chart)
Telling the 15
million unemployed Americans that the recession has ended is like telling a homeless
person that real estate prices (NYSEArca: IYR - News) are about to pick up. It's
ironic at best and cruel at worst.
UNEMPLOYMENT
The chart
below shows the real percentage of unemployed Americans expressed by the U-6
unemployment data, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. With
unemployment near an all-time high, can the recession really be over? (chart)
CONSUMER
SENTIMENT
It is said
that consumer spending makes up about two thirds to three quarters of the
economy. What causes consumer spending? Money flow and confidence in future
growth are often the catalysts. Judging by the unemployment numbers, money flow
is limited. This no doubt has had an effect on consumer confidence. The chart
below shows the Consumer Confidence Index. If the recession is over, why is
confidence near an all-time low? (chart)
Friday's
release of the University of Michigan's Confidence Index was another blow
against the economy. Based on this report, Americans planning to buy a home
have fallen to a five-month low. Also, Americans planning to buy a car
have dropped to the lowest level since December 2008, and 20% of Americans
incomes are at risk of deflating. Not only is the lack of spending power a
practical threat to any economy, it is also a statistical threat to future GDP
numbers. A piece of statistical news that fits into the picture of falling
consumer confidence is that the nation's poverty rate jumped to 14.3%
(datasource: U.S. Census Bureau). Poverty in the U.S. is defined by a family of
four living on less than $21,954 a year. Currently, 43.6 million Americans fall
into this category. But perhaps this doesn't make a difference, as the
government is counting on the faithful flock of economists that don't see their
own demise and the few thousand Wall Streeters' that cashed in on multi-billion
dollar bonuses to lift the economy.
THE SILVER LINING
Even though the NBER declared this recession over, it doesn't preclude the
occurrence of another recession. According to NBER, if the economy starts
shrinking again, it could mark the onset of a much feared but unexpected
double-dip recession. As the first chart shows, this happened in the early
1980s.
NO DOUBLE DIP
To Wall Street's cheerleaders, the worst-case scenario is that the economy is
stuck between a rock and a hard place as illustrated by this Bloomberg
headline: 'Escaping double dip still means no relief for jobless.' As for
investors, they seem not to care much. Monday saw U.S. stocks (NYSEArca: VTI - News) rally by 1.5%.
International stocks (NYSEArca: EFA
- News) and emerging markets
(NYSEArca: EEM - News) were up 1.5 -1.7%. Even
European stocks (NYSEArca: FEZ
- News) were up, although the
European Central Bank had to intervene to stabilize the Irish bond markets on
Friday. In other words, the ECB had to prevent another Greece-style default. In
fact, does not the emergence of yet another European country defaulting, remind
us of the February - April 2010 rally. This rally occurred on ultra-low volume
and against a backdrop of bad news. It then stopped all of a sudden for
seemingly no specific reason. On April 16, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
warned: 'the pieces are in place for a major decline. We are simply waiting for
the proverbial domino to fall over and set off a chain reaction.' The situation
is similar right now. Even though stocks have broken out of the 1,040 - 1,130
trading range, they have done so on low volume and increased investor optimism.
Within the past three weeks, the percentage of bullish investors tracked by
AAII has soared by 30.15%, to the highest level in over a year. This doesn't
mean that stocks can't inch up a bit further, just as they did earlier in
April, but a look at all pieces of the puzzle doesn't paint the picture of a
new bull market. The October issue of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter evaluates the bullish and bearish
potential of the market with a unique approach, along with corresponding target
levels and profit strategies.
Bulls Go to Extremes: Don't Buy the "Breakout",
Sell It, Prechter Says
Stocks jumped Monday with the Dow rising 1.4% to 10,753 and the S&P
gaining 1.5% to 1143, its highest close in four months. The S&P eclipsing
1130 for the first time since late June would seem to confirm the long-awaited
technical breakout for the index, and could pull many reluctant investors off
the sidelines. "Many automatic buy and sell orders are set around market
milestones such as these, and investors watch those levels closely for clues
about which way the market may go next," the AP reports. But the wise move now is to sell this recent rally, says Robert
Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International. "I think we're getting
ready for another leg on the downside," Prechter says, citing evidence of
what he says are extreme levels of optimism, including:
In addition, Prechter notes volume has been punk during the rally in recent weeks a sign, to him, that buyers lack conviction. The veteran market-watcher says the current environment is similar to the 1930-31 period. "The market can make its high while optimism makes a peak despite the fact you're going stair-step lower," he says. "What we had in May with the ‘flash crash' was the first wave down." Prechter predicts these periods of downturns sandwiched around 4-5 months of recovery "where people think we've hit the bottom" is likely to "go one for quite a long time" until a true bottom is reached well below the March 2009 lows, much less today's levels.
Macro
Insights From Seth Klarman Seth Klarman, the legendary hedge fund manager
at Baupost is increasingly concerned about the macro investing environment.
With the retirements of several prominent hedge fund managers in recent months
he’s clearly not alone in his thinking. In a recent interview (see here
for the entire interview) Klarman provides some excellent macro insights
and explains why he is more worried about the world than he has been in his
entire career. Klarman echoes
comments I have often made here. In effect, the recovery has been almost
entirely artificial and will result in unquantifiable future threats. Klarman
calls the current market a “Hostess Twinkie”:
A Hostess Twinkie is a confection that has made many
childhoods slightly happier, but it is composed of totally artificial
ingredients. My context, of about 6–12 months ago, was that virtually
everything was being manipulated by the government. Nothing was natural in the
markets. Interest rates were held at zero, the government was buying all kinds
of securities—notably, mortgage securities—and who knows what else has ended up
on the Fed’s balance sheet.
We have had lending programs—Troubled Asset Relief
Program (TARP), Cash for Clunkers, and even Cash for Caulkers. We just don’t
know the full extent to which investors have been manipulated. But certainly,
the government wants people to buy equities, to invest so that the market will
move higher, creating a wealth effect or at least eliminating the negative
wealth effect in order to make people feel better about their situation, to
restore a degree of optimism so that the economy might recover.
I am worried to this day about what would happen to
the markets, to the economy if, in the midst of all these manipulations, we
realized that they are, in fact, a Twinkie. I think the answer is that no one
knows, including those in Washington. Will the economy continue to recover and grow
at a healthy rate or will we sink into a double-dip recession? As we can all
see, the high degree of government involvement continues.
Of course, the USA isn’t the only country kicking the
can. Klarman cites the European bailout as another game of government kick the
can:
The European bailout is gargantuan. I doubt it will
work because it kicks the can further down the road and is yet one more
manipulation that encourages people to own securities. It is almost as if our
government is in the business of giving people bad advice: “We are going to
hold rates at zero. Please buy stocks or junk bonds that will yield [an
inadequate] 5 or 6 percent.” In effect, it forces unsophisticated investors to
speculate wildly on securities that are too overvalued.
All of this has Klarman more concerned than he has
ever been. That’s a mouthful from a legend like Klarman who has seen more than
his fair share of cycles:
I am more worried about the world, more broadly, than
I have ever been in my career.
Like myself, Klarman
believes there are unquantifiable repercussions from the bailouts:
I am also troubled that we didn’t get the value out
of this crisis that we should have. The Great Depression led us to a generation—or
even two generations—of changed behavior. I grew up hearing about how our
grandparents had a “depression mentality.” It’s awful to have a depression, but
it’s a great thing to have a depression mentality because it means that we are
not speculating, we are not living beyond our means, we don’t quit our job to
take a big risk because we know we might not get another job. There is
something stable about a country, a society built on those values.
In some sense, from the recent crisis we have
developed a “really bad couple of weeks” mentality, and that’s not enough to
tide us through, teach us to avoid future bubbles, and ensure a strong
recovery.
Klarman isn’t a macro expert (he’s a bottom up
investor), but something just doesn’t pass the sniff test with all these
bailouts. How can the global economy continually bailout the losers without
ever allowing these excesses to truly pass from the system? Klarman says we
will eventually reach a tipping point:
A tipping point is invisible, as we just saw in Greece.
In most situations, everything appears fine until it’s not fine, until, for
example, no one shows up at a Treasury auction. In the meantime, we can be
lulled into thinking all is well, that the United States will always be rated
triple-A. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner speaks as if—at least in his
public statements—he has been lulled into thinking that the United States will
always be triple-A. That kind of thinking guarantees that someday the United
States will no longer be triple-A. A sovereign deserves to be rated triple-A
only if it has valuable assets, a good education system, a great
infrastructure, and the rule of law, all of which are called into question by
an eroding infrastructure, a government that changes the law or violates it
whenever there is a crisis, and a legislature that shows no fiscal
responsibility. There is an old saying, “How did you go bankrupt?” And the
answer is, “Gradually, and then suddenly.” The impending fiscal crisis in the
United States will make its appearance in the same way.
Klarman finds the current environment particularly
difficult because many of the hedges that have been working are more
speculative in nature. He finds little value in most commodities (with the
exception of land) because commodities offer no real cash flow and instead rely
almost entirely on some future “greater fool” buying the asset from you.
Klarman makes an exception with gold, however:
Gold is unique because it has the age-old aspect of
being viewed as a store of value. Nevertheless, it’s still a commodity and has
no tangible value, and so I would say that gold is a speculation. But because
of my fear about the potential debasing of paper money and about paper money
not being a store of value, I want some exposure to gold.
Klarman sees all of this government intervention
resulting in higher rates of inflation:
I think the odds are low that such high inflation
will happen in the near future, but looking ahead five years, it becomes more
likely, although certainly not a 50/50 chance. With a very limited initial
outlay, I think a hedge like ours is a reasonable protection.
Ultimately, the downside of the current bailout fever
comes in the form of an intangible risk. Capitalism without losers is like
Catholocism without hell. Klarman sees no way of avoiding future collapses
given that we’ve never actually been forced to learn from our past collapses:
Essentially, the problem is that government
intervention interfered with the lessons investors needed to learn. Those who
stared into the metaphorical abyss are right back at it, with the possible
exception of college endowments, for whom the pain has been long lasting
because of their spend rate. Almost everybody else is drinking the Kool Aid
again, and it is very troubling. We could have another serious collapse, and
people would again not be prepared for it.
Secular Bear Market Myths, Part 2 Claassen In yesterday's Secular Bear
Market Myths Part 1 we debunked the myth that a secular bear
market requires poor earnings growth. In part two, we illustrate the typical
price pattern of a thirteen to sixteen year secular bear market and use that
pattern to provide a near term and long term Market Outlook. The market may be
nearing a critical juncture. If you want to know what to expect, read on ….
A Secular Pattern
Inflation Adjusted (Real) S&P 500 Index 1953-1991 (chart)
After adjusting for inflation, both the high inflation driven
secular bear markets and the deflation driven secular bear markets take on a
more similar form. This is especially true when a secular bear market is
defined as the period between the peak and trough of the average P/E ratio.
Using the numbers on the above chart we see that from the 1966 peak in the P/E
ratio [1] (see chart of Shiller’s CAPE in first report) to the 1982 low [4] was
sixteen years. Both the nominal and real price peak was in late 1968, thirteen
years from the 1982 low. This is indicative of the typical secular bear market;
a period of sixteen to thirteen years.
There are seven years between the two peaks [1] and [2] along with
two major declines [3]. After the second major decline, there is a relief rally
[R], then a multi-month trading range as a period of distribution, followed by
a multi-year decline to complete the bear market [4].
S&P Composite 1917-1951 with Present S&P 500 (chart)
We can see a similar pattern of behavior in the deflationary bear
market of the 1930’s. Yes, the market overlay in orange is our present S&P
500. We will get to that next.
Like the inflation adjusted 1970’s (and 1900-1921) the major highs
and lows follow a pattern. The entire period from 1929 to 1942 encompasses
thirteen years. The two major tops [1] and [2] are seven years apart. There are
two major declines [3], a relief rally [R] followed by a prolonged sideways
period, and finally a decline to complete the bear market [4].
The 2000 - 2016? Bear Market
Overlaid in orange on the above chart is the current S&P 500
with the P/E ratio peak in 2000 lined up with the P/E ratio peak in 1929. Not
surprisingly, the peak [2] and troughs [3] all line up within a couple of
months of their 1930’s counterparts. It appears the rally from the March ’09
low was the relief rally [R]. If our current S&P 500 follows the same path
as these previous bear markets, we should expect a prolonged sideways period and
decline to final low of the bear market sometime in-between 2013 and 2016. As
illustrated in the historical chart of the S&P Composite, when this secular
bear market is complete the trailing Shiller CAPE ratios should be under ten.
The higher the earnings from now until that time, the less the market will need
to decline to complete this period and move into the next secular bull market.
Conversely, the lower the earnings, the more the market averages would need to
decline to meet their sub 10 trough in the index P/E ratio.
Inflation Adjusted (Real) S&P 500 1959-1983 with Current Inflation
Adjusted S&P 500 (chart)
As nicely as the current bear market has fit within the profile of
the past, the chart above and the chart below should serve as signs of caution
not to expect too tight a correlation between past markets and the
present. The patterns of past market behavior are a good guide; they help us
understand the environment we are in and keep our expectations in check. But
the turning points that look so perfect on the monthly charts have still been
accurate only within a +/- of several months. In hind sight that does not seem
like much, in real time two or three months can feel like an eternity.
Also, each secular period is unique, and the market will respond to
that uniqueness in a manner different than what our past market roadmaps might
lead us to expect. For example, when we line up the current market with the
1966 P/E ratio peak (above), although the major turning points line up, there
is a unique rally peak in 1968 (see above chart). That difference can be
explained by the difference between inflation and deflation based bear markets.
But, for now, the current environment is not completely identical to either the
pure inflation or deflation periods.
Obviously, current inflation is not the least bit similar to the
1970’s and despite deflationary pressures; this is not the Great Depression. We
do believe that this cycle will have more in common with deflationary cycles
than inflation. If we look back again at the P/E chart on (reposted below) we
can see that secular bear markets have cycled between a falling interest rate
and falling P/E environment, and a rising interest rate falling P/E
environment. The current economic background is more similar to the
deflationary period. In previous Market Updates we have illustrated how, since
1998, the intermarket correlations have been indicative of a market that fears
deflation more than inflation, which fits very well with this cycle.
P/E Ratio (CAPE) for US Equities and Long Term Interest Rates: source RJ Shiller (chart)
NASDAQ Composite Aligned with Nikkei 225 1984-2010 (chart)
Japan is another example of a deflationary bear market. We have
shown the above chart before, with the overlay of the NASDAQ Composite matching
the year 2000 peak of the NASDAQ and the 1990 (December 1989) peak of the
Nikkei 225. The major turning points fit very well with the pattern, but the
volatility between the turning points is very different. For example, where our
S&P Composite model suggest a modest decline followed by a sideways period
(after [R]), the Nikkei 225 collapsed without pause. It is very unlikely that
the NASDAQ Composite will decline at same rate with which the Nikkei 225
declined at this stage of their bear market. It is more likely that the
sharpness of the Nikkei’s decline from 2000 [R] to 2003 [4] will be a feature
unique to their bear market. We should also note that it is apparent from our
model that Japan’s bear market should have been complete in 2003 [4]. The
Nikkei’s rally from the 2003 low to 2007 high was an astounding 140%! But, the
decline that followed, and the current persistent deflation shows they have not
yet pulled themselves out of their economic bear market. Is this because of
incorrect monetary or fiscal policy decisions? Have we made similar policy
mistakes? We don’t know and won’t know until after the fact.
Thus, while we have a good road map to follow, we must still
diligently monitor our indicators and market conditions. It is more important
to follow what the market is doing, than what it should do relative to any
predictive model.
Short Term Outlook
The above pages were originally written in June, 2010. The addendum
below is a short term outlook as of September 19, 2010. (chart)
Current Dow Jones Industrial Average Daily with NASDAQ 100 Year 2000
Overlay
…’
Homebuilder
Confidence Remains in the Dump
National / World
Drudgereport:
Professorial president
assigned 'homework' to advisers...
Critical players
in national security team 'doubt strategy in Afghanistan will succeed'...
Axelrod
'complete spin doctor'...
President of
Afghanistan suffers from 'manic-depression' … [Wow! No wonder he’s aligned with
the u.s. … fits right in, one nutcase to another ] ...
Rahm cheers
drone attacks: 'Who did we get today?'...
WOODWARD DOES OBAMA: KISS OR
DISS? [ What strategy … toward what end … why, other than the newly
cultivated heroin trade, which of course is great for cash money sub-rosa,
which is great for the few, and of course, the war’s great for the military
complex but bad for the u.s. economy generally (resources literally blown up).
Win what? You see; for the defacto bankrupt american nation, this is one of
those lose, lose scenarios regardless of so-called outcome. ] WASHINGTON — Some of the critical players in President Obama’s national
security team doubt his strategy in Afghanistan will
succeed and have spent much of the last 20 months quarreling with one another
over policy, personalities and turf, according to a new book. The book, “Obama’s Wars,” by the journalist Bob Woodward, depicts an
administration deeply torn over the war in Afghanistan even as the president
agreed to triple troop levels there amid suspicion that he was being boxed in
by the military. Mr. Obama’s top White House adviser on Afghanistan and his
special envoy for the region are described as believing the strategy will not
work …’
Mob’s man cuomo undecided on
debating … how embarrassing for new york … and their cuomo coma … ask cuomo how
many mob prosecutions he’s brought ...
POLL: USA Loses No. 1 to
Brazil-China-India Market...
HOUSEHOLD NET WORTH DROPS...
Sen.
DeMint champions 'tea party' candidates
(Washington Post) Bill
Maher digs up O'Donnell 'witchcraft' clip (AP) [ She’s done! There’s no excuse for that! None! ] ‘… "I dabbled into witchcraft. I never
joined a coven," she said. " ... I hung around people who were doing
these things. I'm not making this stuff up. I know what they told me they
do," she said. "... One of my first dates with a witch was on a
satanic altar, and I didn't know it. I mean, there's little blood there and
stuff like that," she said. "We went to a movie and then had a little
midnight picnic on a satanic altar." …’ Occult
Obsessed Elite Claim Christine O’Donnell is a Witch Kurt Nimmo | The corporate media, the propaganda organ of the global elite, sets
its sites on Delaware’s Christine O’Donnell. … Sorry kurt … there’s no excuse
for that … she’s done! An
O'Donnell repeat is unlikely
(Washington Post) There are at least three reasons to be skeptical of
Del. Senate candidate's ability to win. OPINION:
O'Donnell's forgivable sin? | Politerati Rough
Sketch: 10 reasons O'Donnell may be a witch
Justice:
FBI improperly opened probes (Washington
Post) [ Well, I just hope they’re as
zealous (in probing readily discernible crime) with regard to my RICO matters
and the corruption in the (judicial / legal) process since, in the final
analysis, it will have been the corruption within that will have brought the
nation down irrevocably and totally ] .
September 13, 2010
Steven M. Martinez, Assistant Director In Charge
Federal Bureau of Investigation, USDOJ
11000 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 1700
Dear Sir:
I enclose herewith 3 copies of the within DVD rom autorun disk (which
will open in your computer’s browser) as per your office’s request as made this
day (the disk and contents have been scanned by Avast, McAfee, and Norton which
I’ve installed on my computer to prevent viral attacks / infection and are
without threat). I also include a copy of the DVD as filed with the subject
court as referenced therein (which files are also included on the aforesaid 3
disks in a separate folder named ‘112208opocoan’). The (civil) RICO action (as
you’re aware, the RICO Act is a criminal statute which provides a civil remedy,
including treble damages and attorney fees, as an incentive for private
prosecution of said claims probably owing to the fact that the USDOJ seems
somewhat overwhelmed and in need of such assistance given the seriousness and
prevalence of said violations of law which have a corrupting influence on the
process, and which corruption is pervasive). A grievance complaint against Coan
was also filed concurrently with the subject action and held in abeyance
pending resolution of the action which was illegally dismissed without any
supporting law and in contravention of the Order of The Honorable Robert N.
Chatigny, Chief Judge, USDC, District Connecticut. The files below the
horizontal rule are the referenced documents as filed. (Owing to the damage to
the financial interests of both the U.S. and the District of Congresswoman Roybal-Allard,
viz., Los Angeles, the Qui Tam provisions of the Federal False Claims Act probably would
apply and I would absent resolution seek to refer the within to a firm with
expertise in that area of the law with which I am not familiar).
The document in 5 pages under
penalty of perjury I was asked to forward to the FBI office in New Haven is
probably the best and most concise summary of the case RICO Summary
to FBI Under Penalty of Perjury at Their Request (5 pages) [
ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf ].
The correspondence I received from Congresswoman by way of email
attachment (apparent but typical problem with my mail) along with my response
thereto is included on the 3 disks as
fbicorrespondencereyes.htm .
With regard to the calls to the FBI’s LA and New Haven, CT offices:
There was one call to the LA office and I was referred to the Long Beach, CA
office where I personally met with FBI Agent Jeff Hayes to whom I gave
probative evidentiary documents of the money laundering which he confirmed as
indicative of same (he was transferred from said office within approximately a
month of said meeting and his location was not disclosed to me upon inquiry).
The matter was assigned to FBI Agent Ron Barndollar and we remained in touch
for in excess of a decade until he abruptly retired (our last conversation
prior to his retirement related to the case and parenthetically, Rudy Giuliani whose
father I stated had been an enforcer for the mob to which he registered
disbelief and requested I prove it, which I did – he served 12 years in prison,
aggravated assault/manslaughter? – and no, there is no Chinese wall of
separation – Andrew Maloney’s the one that prosecuted gotti).
In contradistinction to the statement in said correspondence, there is
a plethora of information including evidence supporting the claims set forth in
the RICO
VERIFIED COMPLAINT
(see infra). Such includes and as set forth in the case, inter alia,
There is applicable insurance / surety
coverage and neither LA, nor creditors, nor I should continue to have been
damaged by this brazened corrupt and illegal scenario, which should be resolved
in accordance with the meaningful rules of law apposite thereto.
Sincerely,
Albert L. Peia
611 E. 5th Street, #404
Los Angeles, CA 90013
(213) ******** (cell phone)
(213) 622-3745 (listed land line but there are unresolved problems with the
line, computer connection may be the reason but I hesitate to chance greater
non-performance / worsening by their ‘fix’ so cell phone best for contact).
Yes! It is a full moon with
predictable lunacy from the lunatic frauds on wall street!
YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]:
‘The S&P 500 pushed through technical resistance to set a fresh four-month
high on Monday. There
were no catalysts or headlines to account for the climb. Only a bullish bias among market
participants underpinned the move.
Stocks made only modest gains in the early going. Most traders took
their cues from Europe, where the major bourses staged strong gains as concerns
about sovereign debt subsided. Early action was generally consistent with the
relatively cautious trade that typically precedes an FOMC announcement, the
latest of which will be released tomorrow afternoon. Though no rate actions are
expected tomorrow, many will look for changes in the verbiage of the actual the
FOMC statement to give clues about where policy might be headed …’ Riiiiight … changes in VERBIAGE … in other words, b*** s*** alone
… Come on! … you just can’t make this
stuff up … again! (the no-recession fed, then nation-bankrupting spending, then
just before election ‘recession over’ … the recession that’s a depression that
never ended and there’s desperation in the air … and the the frauds on wall
street are taking advantage of the pre-election b*** s***) … the new ‘churn and
earn fraud they’ll get their commissions again on the way down’ … THIS IS A
GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL / TAKE PROFITS SINCE THERE’S MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO
COME!
Gerald
Celente: US Economy = Depression Famous investor and billionaire George Soros referred to the US
economy as “blah,” saying he expects a further slowdown. US President Barack
Obama has insisted however that the US economy is heading in the right
direction. Gerald Celente, the director of the Trends Research Institute said
the economy is not just blah, it’s in a depression. It’s the summer of the
greatest recession,” he said.
Too
Much Liquidity Creating New Investment Bubbles … Again?
#1 The Census Bureau says that 43.6 million Americans
are now living in poverty and according to them that is the highest number of
poor Americans in
51 years of record-keeping.
#2 In the year 2000, 11.3
percent of Americans were living in poverty. In 2008, 13.2 percent of
Americans were living in poverty. In 2009, 14.3 percent of Americans were
living in poverty. Needless to say the trend is moving in the wrong
direction.
#3 In 2009 alone, approximately
4 million more Americans joined the ranks of the poor.
#4 According to the Associated Press, experts believe
that 2009 saw the
largest single year increase in the U.S. poverty rate since the U.S.
government began calculating poverty figures back in 1959.
#5 The U.S. poverty rate is now the third worst among
the developed nations tracked by the Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development.
#6 Today the United States has approximately 4
million fewer wage earners than it did in 2007.
#7 Nearly 10 million Americans now receive
unemployment insurance, which is
almost four times as many as were receiving it in 2007.
#8 U.S. banks repossessed 25
percent more homes in August 2010 than they did in August 2009.
#9 One out of every seven mortgages in the United
States was either delinquent or in foreclosure during the first quarter of
2010.
#10 There are now 50.7
million Americans who do not have health insurance. One trip to the
emergency room would be all it would take to bankrupt a significant
percentage of them.
#11 More
than 50 million Americans are now on Medicaid, the U.S. government
health care program designed principally to help the poor.
#12 There are now over
41 million Americans on food stamps.
#13 The number of Americans enrolled in
the food stamp program increased a
whopping 55 percent from December 2007 to June 2010.
#14 One out of every six Americans is now being served by
at least one government anti-poverty program.
#15 California’s poverty rate soared
to 15.3 percent in 2009, which was the highest in 11 years.
#16 According to an analysis by Isabel Sawhill and Emily
Monea of the Brookings Institution, 10 million more Americans (including 6
million more children) will slip into poverty over
the next decade.
#17 According to a recently released Federal Reserve report,
Americans experienced a $1.5
trillion loss in combined household net worth in the second quarter of
2010.
#18 Manufacturing employment in the U.S. computer industry is
actually lower in 2010 than
it was in 1975.
#19 Median U.S. household income is
down 5 percent from its peak of more than $52,000 in 1999.
#20 A study recently released by the Center for
Retirement Research at Boston College University found that Americans are
$6.6 trillion short of what they need for retirement … ‘
Black
September Postponed, New Month Yet To Be Determined Shell ‘… US markets
have to assimilate notes from the FOMC meeting and various housing reports this
week. Today, the National Association of Home Builders Index came in at 13,
unchanged from the previous month. With 50 a neutral number, there was no
optimism here. Tomorrow US building permits and housing starts will be
announced. With US home seizures and bank foreclosures rising to records, and
banks offering these home in competition with new homes, new home builders may
be relying upon divine intervention to assist with their sales…’
Major Indices Up Against the Wall ‘ …
Bad News:
Oil
dropped to a two week low on concerns for global growth.
Ireland
and Portugal were back in the news with the Irish/German Bund spread reaching
record highs along with the cost of insurance on their debt; the story was the
same in Portugal and these developments helped to drive the Euro down against
the dollar.
Barclays
Bank (BCS) issued a memo saying that Ireland may
need IMF help, a view that was promptly and vigorously denied by the Irish
government, but the markets seemed to rebuff those denials as gold reached a
new record high.
On
the home front, Fed Ex (FDX) reported
seeing slower growth ahead and on Friday we saw our 125th bank failure for the
year.
The
New York Empire Manufacturing Index posted a huge miss for September, coming in
at 4.1, down from a previous 7.1 and consensus estimate of 6.4
Industrial
production declined in August to +0.2% from +0.6%.
On
Friday, an unexpected drop in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
index to 66.6 for September took that index to its lowest level in more than a
year.
Unemployment
remains at a quarter century high while in 2009, the U.S. poverty rate was the
highest since 1994, with 14% of Americans living below the poverty line.
In
the all important real estate market, Realty Trac reported that bank
repossessions hit a record high in August and now one out of every 380 homes in
America are in some phase of the foreclosure process. There is now a three year
supply of distressed homes on the market and this comes against the backdrop of
household wealth declining 2.8% in the second quarter and the lowest median
household income since 1997.
The
lumber industry is an important facet of the U.S. economy and is reflective of
the state of the housing industry. This week the Western Wood Products
Association reports that 2009 was its worst year on record and that 2010 timber
sales and production could be even worse. In 2005, the U.S. had a record 2.1
million housing starts that dropped to 555,000 in 2009, the lowest number of
starts since World War II.
All
of this would lead to the obvious conclusion that we could expect still lower
home prices ahead.
What It All Means
From
a technical standpoint, the markets are poised for a significant decline and
from a macro standpoint; significant risks are inherent in the slowing economy
and problems in Europe heating up yet again. Seasonality also points to
increasing danger as September and October tend to be treacherous months for
market declines.
Furthermore,
mutual fund cash levels are at record lows and this phenomenon was also in play
before both the 2000 and 2008 market meltdowns. With not much gas left in the
tank and an ominous macro environment, it’s hard to make a bullish case in the
weeks ahead.
However
there’s always the possibility for upside surprises from resilient earnings
reports and ever present, not so invisible hand of government intervention here
and abroad.
A
sustained breakout higher will likely lead to a significant rally while failure
here will likely lead to a significant correction to test recent lows.
The most likely probability is for a move lower and Wall Street Sector Selector
remains in the “Red Flag” mode, expecting lower prices ahead.’
How
Wall Street Manipulates the News...And Investors Shaefer Wall Street’s
business model depends upon two factors:
(1) Keeping
you interested enough in the markets to leave your cash with them so they can
float it, make a return on it higher than the one they pay you, and use your
cash to convince the regulators that they have enough in “assets” to borrow
money to expand their own proprietary trading, and...
(2) Keeping
you trading. The easiest way for them to do this is to slant the news favorably
for a few weeks to a few months, then slant the same or similar news
unfavorably for a few weeks to a few months. This way, they get you to buy on
their alleged good news, then sell when the news “turns bad” and hopes are
dashed. That gives them two commissions instead of one. Done over the course of
a year, it gives them dozens rather than one or two.
A recent case
in point is the current rally based upon the fact that the ISM Manufacturing
index rose from 55.5 to 56.3, an inconsequential amount not much bigger than a
rounding error, from July to August of 2010, an inconsequential time frame too
short to measure anything meaningful. The following week, the ISM
Non-Manufacturing Index (“services” rather than manufacturing) fell a rather
more consequential 54.3 to 51.5, its lowest reading since January, a rather
more consequential time frame. Since Services comprise three-quarters of US
economic activity, one might think this would have been cause for concern. But
the news was buried on page 16 because Wall Street wants us buying now, not
selling. Once they have their shorts in place (today? tomorrow?) so they can
profit both from their short positions and from retail investors’ panic selling
and the commissions that flow only from activity, you’ll find “the news” has
magically turned bad again. Then, after they have your commission dollars and
their profits from short-selling, they'll spin the news positively again. It’s
a classic example of Lucy van Pelt whisking the football away from Charlie
Brown every time he gets th-i-i-s close to actually kicking it through the
uprights. But you don’t have to play along! Stand back from the daily barrage
of data and “commentary” on the data and you’ll see the entire process more
clearly. And if you agree, you might take a look at selling into euphoria and
buying into despair, as we try to do. The current outlook is supposedly nothing
but lollipops and rainbows, so we are now short via ProShares' inverse ETFs:
S&P 500 (SH), Emerging Markets (EUM), and Russell 2000 (RWM). I expect a rally based upon
real, versus manufactured, slanted and spun, news, this fall. Throwing out the
current crop of ne’er-do-wells in Congress alone should be good for a few
hundred points on the Dow. But, personally, I don’t see that rally mounting
from 10,600. No, Wall Street needs to terrify the public one more time, so they
can cover their short positions and buy cheaply as the public sells. A decline
below 10,000, possibly well below 10,000, is in their interest before the next
big rally. Do your own due diligence – stand aside and watch the manipulation
of the silliest sorts of news like: “Only 450,000 newly-unemployed this month
in America! Economists had predicted 460,000!! Buy!!! Buy!!!!” And if you
agree, take a look at the above and other inverse ETFs. I imagine they’ll be
very good to us over the next few weeks or couple months…
Author's
Disclosure: We and those
clients for whom it is appropriate own or are purchasing SH, EUM, and RWM.
The Fine
Print: As Registered
Investment Advisors, we see it as our responsibility to advise the following:
we do not know your personal financial situation, so the information contained
in this communiqué represents the opinions of the staff of Stanford Wealth
Management, and should not be construed as personalized investment advice. Past
performance is no guarantee of future results, rather an obvious statement but
clearly too often unheeded judging by the number of investors who buy the
current #1 mutual fund only to watch it plummet next month! We encourage you to
do your own research on individual issues we recommend for your analysis to see
if they might be of value in your own investing. We take our responsibility to
proffer intelligent commentary seriously, but it should not be assumed that
investing in any securities we are investing in will always be profitable. We
do our best to get it right, and we “eat our own cooking,” but we could be
wrong, hence our full disclosure as to whether we own or are buying the
investments we write about.’
The
Mega-Bear Quartet and L-Shaped 'Recoveries' Doug Short I retired this chart series in early August in
deference to my preferred inflation-adjusted
series that aligns the S&P 500 2000 high with the Nikkei peak in 1989.
Here's an update of the retired series by special request.
This chart
series overlays the current S&P 500 with the L-shaped
"recoveries" after the Dow Crash of 1929, the Nikkei 225 after
Japan's 1989 bubble, and the post Tech Bubble NASDAQ. Click the chart below for
a larger version and use the links to see various comparisons. [chart]
I've also
included an updated two-decade inflation-adjusted
chart, which gives us a fascinating visualization of the impact of
inflation on long-term market prices. The higher the rate of inflation during a
bear market, the greater the real decline. Compare, for example, the peak of the
Dow rally in year seven with the same peak in the two-decade nominal
chart. The difference is the result of deflation during the Great
Depression.
It's rather stunning to see the real (inflation-adjusted) decline of the
Nikkei, two decades years after its crash. The recent lows rival the traumatic
Dow bottom in 1932, less than 3 years after its peak.
These charts remind us that bear markets can last a long time. And it's not
necessary to go back to the Great Depression for an example.
[See also my preferred
version, which puts the start of the current secular bear in 2000 with the
popping of the Tech Bubble. In inflation-adjusted terms, the S&P 500
reached its all-time high in March 2000. Although the nominal high in October
2007 was higher, the "real" high was not.]
Note: These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study
the today's market in relation to historic market cycles.
The Analysts Are Starting to Get Silly Moenning In doing my weekend research,
I came across a couple of items that reminded me why I am such a cynic:
First,
beware of "Conventional Wisdom": I believe it is safe to say that it
is widely accepted that Merger & Acquisition (M&A) activity is
generally viewed as a positive. That it reflects a view that "stocks are
cheap" and that the act of buying represents a source of demand. While
true to some degree, I found the following points from an opposing view to be
interesting:
Here are some interesting points; I'm
sure you'll agree:
Second, in this week's Barron's
I came across the following excerpt from "The Weekly Speculator"
(date tagged Sept. 16) in the Market Watch Section. I use this only as an
example, and not as a general criticism of this newsletter. The excerpt reads
in part as follows:
...but it is our belief that recent
months have seen a data cycle play out, rather than a genuine moderation of
economic activity. Support for this view has certainly been delivered in recent
weeks by a sudden firming of US economic data, which has consistently been
above consensus since late August.
Really?
It seems to me that housing sales have
collapsed since the the "Home Buyer Credit" ended. Automobile sales
cratered after the "Cash for Clunkers" program finished. Inventories
are building again, which may very well not be a sign of confidence, but simply
overstocking. Consumer credit continues to contract. Consumer sentiment is
falling. I could go on.
Certainly there have been some positive
reports, mostly it seems relating to layoffs, jobless claims, etc. But in
general, I read the data as bottom-bouncing at best, and a re-intensifying
contraction as a fair possibility. Examine the below table of recent economic
reports which I have compiled. It is by no means complete, but hopefully will
give a fair representation of recent economic reports. You be the judge:
Recent Economic Data
|
|
|
Reuters |
Reuters |
|
9/17 |
UofM Conf |
66.6 |
70.0 |
68.9 |
Worse |
9/16 |
Philly Fed |
-0.70 |
3.8 |
-7.7 |
Missed |
9/16 |
Jobless Claims |
450K |
455K |
451K |
Better |
9/16 |
Producer Price Index |
+0.4% |
+0.3% |
+0.2% |
Worst |
9/15 |
Industrial Production |
+0.2% |
+0.2% |
+1.0% |
Worst |
9/15 |
Empire Manuf Survey |
4.14 |
5.00 |
7.10 |
Weakening |
9/14 |
Business Inventories |
+1.0% |
+0.6% |
+0.3% |
Improving |
9/14 |
Retail Sales |
+0.4% |
+0.3% |
+0.4% |
Better? |
9/10 |
Wholesale Inventories |
+1.3% |
N/A |
+0.1% |
Improving |
9/8 |
Consumer Credit |
-$3.6 billion |
-$3.5 billion |
-$1.3 billion |
Weakening |
9/8 |
Beige Book |
Widespread Signs |
N/A |
N/A |
Weakening |
9/3 |
Non-Farm Payroll |
-54K |
-90K |
-131K |
Better |
9/3 |
Unemployment Rate |
9.6% |
9.6% |
9.5% |
Flat/Worsening |
9/2 |
Factory Orders |
+0.1% |
+0.3% |
-0.6% |
Weak |
9/1 |
Domestic Car Sales |
8.3M |
8.7M |
8.9M |
Weaker |
8/25 |
New Home Sales |
276K |
340K |
330K |
Record Low |
8/24 |
Existing Home Sales |
3.83M |
4.65M |
5.37M |
15 year low |
Relating to the decline in outstanding
consumer credit, I believe that this is part of the consumer getting their
house in order. I feel that it will help build a solid foundation from which a
secular (long-term) economic advance could begin such as the 50s and 60s and
the 80s and 90s.
For the immediate future however, I am
of the opinion that declining consumer credit reflects an attitude by the
consumer to spend less, and this will be a damper to the economy in the short
run.
Inventory build-ups are more of an iffy
situation. If the reflect an unintended accumulation of unsold merchandise,
then a period of inventory reduction may be forth-coming. It is this inventory
reduction that concerns me and would be one more near term negative.
So, what do take away from this? Just
because it's written or spoken doesn't make it true, even my statements. Take
very little on faith, especially when it is regarding the markets.
"Trust no one" - Walter
Donovan to Indiana Jones, Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade
Disclosure: No positions
Ten Reasons This Rally Is Ultimately Toast
Wachtel ‘Here are 10 reasons why risk assets (stocks, riskier forex pairs,
industrial commodities) have a very high probability of a pullback very soon.
Technical Indicators: High Risk Of Downturn
The S&P
500 is the best single representative of overall risk appetite. It is telling
us that a pullback is coming very soon. (chart)
1. Coming Bounce Off Of Upper Bollinger Band (standard 2, 20 default settings):
Once the index starts to pull back from its upper Bollinger
band, it usually pulls back to at least its 50 day SMA, often lower. Since the
end of the most recent rally in late April, this rule has worked flawlessly in
both mid-June and mid-August. The index is now once again at its upper
Bollinger Band.
Up Against Multiple Reinforcing Layers Of Strong Resistance
Around 1120.
2. Upper Bollinger Band (noted above).
3. 200 day SMA (purple line).
4. 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the February 2010 low (which
has held up well as support, only violated for a few sessions in July and
August).
5. Neckline (red horizontal line around 1125) of the big bearish
Head-And-Shoulders pattern dating all the way back to the beginning of 2010.
Left shoulder in January, head in April, and right shoulder in June.
6. This same resistance at 1125 is reinforced by another bearish
chart pattern- a bearish double top (that may soon become a triple top if the
above indicators prove correct).
7. Recent Rally On Low Volume: The rally that began in late
August has been on very low volume, which suggests lack of conviction and thus
less durability.
Fundamentals Don’t Support A Rally
8. We are heading into the second half of the month, which is
lighter on significant news data than would be needed to justify a push past
the above strong resistance layers
In addition, there is the overwhelmingly bearish fundamental
backdrop:
9. US economic slowdown in every meaningful category: housing
prices (where the bear market began), jobs, spending, etc. Even manufacturing,
until recently a rare bright spot, has been slowing since the prior Philly Fed
report.
10. The ongoing and utterly unsolved EU sovereign debt/banking
crisis, with its now periodic eruptions. While we have no major eruptions
reported recently, PIIGS sovereign and bank yields and CDS rates remain at
May’s crisis levels, a clear indication that markets are very nervous and ready
to sell off, as they have over the past weeks on news of Ireland’s latest bank
bailout and a Wall Street Journal article on how the EU bank stress tests
understated PIIGS bond exposure.
As noted in previous posts, support and resistance must be
viewed as zones rather than precise points. The lack of news noted above could
allow for continued quiet drift upward to 1140 or even a bit more.
However, that leaves little room to profit for anyone except
very short term traders. Others should be planning short trades as the S&P
and other risk assets head back down to test support. For the S&P 500 that
would be around 1040 in the near term.
DISCLOSURE & DISCLAIMER: NO POSITIONS, THE ABOVE IS FOR
INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND NOT TO BE CONSTRUED AS SPECIFIC TRADING ADVICE.
RESPONSIBILITY FOR TRADE DECISIONS IS SOLELY WITH THE READER.’
Philadelphia
Manufacturing Index Falls
Yen hits 15-year high
vs dollar Reuters | The dollar
hit a 15-year low against the yen on Tuesday, testing Japanese authorities’
resolve to stem the yen’s climb after Prime Minister Naoto Kan won a party
leadership vote.
Regional
Manufacturing Still Deteriorating
Despite Range Trading - Prominent Sell Signals Still
Alive On Thursday September 16, 2010, 12:35 pm EDT About a month ago, news about the ominous
Hindenburg Omen, terrible September/October and other prominent sell signals
were the big buzz around Wall Street. Has the recent rally and range bound
trading neutralized or even eliminated the bearish undercurrents? A look at
current sentiment would make you think so. Sentiment surveys show that
bullishness has soared and optimists are back in control (see chart below).But
are the optimists generally right? No. In fact, unfounded optimism is one of
the biggest investment traps and most effective bear market tricks. On April
16, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned that: 'The message conveyed by
the composite bullishness is unmistakably bearish. Most bulls have no clue why
they are bullish except for the fact that they feel the need to play the
momentum game. Sounds like 2000 and 2007 all over again.' When it comes to
investing, emotions tend to get in the way of making money. It takes an
opportunistic, yet realistic approach to profit in this market.
Parallels Between 2000, 2007, and Today
From a purely analytical point of view, the April ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
examined the 2000 and 2007 market tops and compared them with the 2010 price
action, at a time when optimism was soaring sky-high. The parallels between the
2000, 2007 and forming 2010 tops were striking, that's why the newsletter
concluded that: 'A comparison between the 2000 and 2007 double tops to the
current constellations shows that the market may roll over at any time.'
Similar to the January/April 2000 and July/October 2007 double tops, the April
2010 highs were preceded by a lower January top. But the parallels didn't stop
there.
Major Tops Followed by Decoy Rallies
Following the initial 2007 decline, the April, May 2008 rally rekindled new
hope and pushed the major indexes a la Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI), S&P (SNP:
^GSPC), and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) briefly above their 200-day moving average
(MA). Following the initial April 2010 decline, the July/August rally also
pushed the S&P briefly above the 200-day MA. Both, in 2008 and 2010,
the indexes were rebuffed by the 200-day MA. The failure to stay above the
200-day MA in May 2008 was followed by a 53.75% decline in the S&P 500.
Former performance leaders like the Financial Select Sector SPDRs (NYSEArca: XLF - News) and KBW Bank ETF (NYSEArca: KBE - News) tumbled 79%, the Technology
Sector SPDRs (NYSEArca: XLK - News) dropped 49%. Even conservative
sectors such as utilities (NYSEArca: XLU - News) and healthcare (NYSEArca: XLV - News) dropped another 35 - 45%. Like a
free diver who comes up for air, the market tends to rally to keep investors
engaged before the next leg down. The chart below - which plots bullish
advisor sentiment against the price of the S&P 500 from June 2007 -
September 2010, illustrates the market's cruel habit of spreading hope just
before the hammer drops. [chart]
It Happened Before
Since we are talking about prior market tops, we can't help but mention the
mother of all sucker rallies, which occurred in 1929/1930. Following the
initial 1929 meltdown, the 1930 rally recouped 50% of the previously lost
points. Ironically, the 1930 rally ended on April 16. The 2010 counter trend
rally ran its course on April 26. In addition to a near identical termination
date, the two rallies rekindled the same kind of bullish sentiment. Below are a
few headlines and statement from April 1930. Keep in mind that the Dow went on
to decline more than 80% thereafter. 'For the immediate future, the outlook is
bright' - Irving Fisher, Ph. D. in Economics 'I see nothing in the present
situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism.' - Andrew W. Mellon,
U. S. Secretary of the Treasury 'The depression is over' - Herbert Hoover,
President If you escaped the market in
time, you might be able to read the following April 2010 headlines with a fair
shot of humor and realize the irony: 'As job worries ease, will anything stop
the stock market?' – CNBC 'Dow 11,000 is only the beginning' - Wall Street
Journal 'Check the real estate: It is time to delve in' - Wall Street Journal
It Happened Recently
It's easy to dismiss any parallels to the Great Depression simply because it
happened 80 years ago. However, an 80% drop is nothing unusual and has been
seen recently. The Nasdaq (Nasdaq: QQQQ - News) peaked in 2000 and tumbled 78.4%
within less than two years. Much evidence suggests that the Nasdaq's woes are
not yet over with more losses and lower lows on the horizon. Oil prices tumbled
77% after topping at $147.3 a barrel in 2008. Both, the Nasdaq and oil prices
topped at a time when higher prices were a foregone conclusion. With regards to
oil, the expectation for higher fuel prices moved all major car manufacturers
to advertise and build low MPG cars. As soon as their commercials hit TVs,
radios, and newspapers across the country, oil and fuel prices started to drop
like a rock. Some still dismiss those declines as sector bubbles, not broad
market declines.
It Happened to an Entire Country
The Nikkei is Japan's version of the S&P 500 and covers hundreds of stocks.
In 1989, the Nikkei topped at 38,946. Since then, it has dropped over 80% to
below 8,000 (see chart below, published in the April 2010 ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter). [chart] Throughout this 20-year decline, the Nikkei had eleven
rallies of 20% or more and four that were 50% or more. In total, the Nikkei
rallied well over 250,000 rally points, yet it remains 76% below its 1989 peak.
The decline of Japan's stock market (NYSEArca: EWJ - News) and economy happened amidst a
global bull market. Imagine what can happen to the U.S. stock market during a
global recession spurred by European (NYSEArca: FEZ - News) debt woes and global stock market
(NYSEArca: EFA - News) weakness. It's human nature to rationalize
and invent reasons why something can't happen. It's the stock market's nature
to prove investors wrong. Based on parallels that aren't farfetched by any
means, a follow through of the post 2007 U.S. equity meltdown is more than just
a possibility.
Fundamentals, Technicals, Valuations, and History in Agreement
Investing is about putting the odds in your favor. There is no such thing as a
100% certain profit opportunity. However, there are high probability profit
opportunities where the odds of having a winning trade are high and the
potential reward is much higher than the potential risk. Such high probability
profit opportunities occur when as many indicators as possible point in the
same direction. Right now, there is a near unanimous consent between
fundamental and technical indicators, along with valuations and historic
patterns. The latest ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter includes a detailed analysis of various
market forecasting tools, along with a short, mid, and long-term outlook for
the U.S. stock market and a target range for the ultimate market bottom. Even
though the economic outlook is dim, realistic investors can feel optimistic
about the opportunities in the months and years ahead. ,
August
Foreclosures Highest on Record RealtyTrac, an online foreclosure sale site,
will release its monthly numbers on Thursday, but sources there confirm the
number of repossessions will come in just shy of 100,000 for the month.
Stock
Market Goes Into A Coma: Here's What You Need To Know Weisenthal ‘Snooze. Fest. But first, the
scoreboard;
Dow: +22.75
NASDAQ: +1.83
S&P 500: -044
And now, the top stories:
Drudgereport: Doomsday warnings of US apocalypse gain
ground...
1 in 7 Americans lives in
poverty...
50-year high...
Foreclosures Rise; Repossessions Set Record...
Gold hits new high...
US poverty on track to post record
gain under Obama...
Last minute aid helps city dodge default...
MICHELLE IN 'HELL': 'CAN'T
STAND' FIRST LADY JOB … (at least there’s some reciprocity) ...
BREITBART Shock
Audio: Facing 'Obligations' From Leadership, Democrat Congresswoman Leaves
Voicemail for Lobbyist Cash...
RASMUSSEN: First Post-Primary
Poll, Coons winning in Delaware
Coons (D) 53% O’Donnell
(R) 42%
O'Donnell's
win throws a challenge at the GOP [ Aw shucks!
Change just around the corner say the bipartisan incumbents… change afoot, like
wobama’s foot in his mouth / a** change …
Let’s get real … no real change is a-coming … but ‘hopium’ (previously
discussed) is a powerfully addictive drug. Let’s all awake from this hopium
induced stupor and read these government frauds the riot act! Defacto
bankrupt american politics are getting downright nasty (AP). Ask nancy
pelosi, ‘the wicked witch of the west’
( only a minute, this political ad by John Dennis is well done and very
funny) http://albertpeia.com/nancypelosiwickedwitchofthewest.flv
. ] By beating their candidate for the Senate seat in Delaware, the tea
party sends a message to the Republican establishment: You are not in
charge. Frustration with GOP pushed
win O'Donnell's win in the Delaware Senate
primary reflects voter sentiment toward party elders.
Stocks'
rise defies record Underestimating
the Risks of the Stock Market
Keep in mind, this is an election year and as good as it gets, as bad as
it is beyond the spun / fake market-frothing
data ] [Babak ‘If you spend
enough time trading and studying the markets you realize viscerally that markets
tend to fall and fall hard much more than they rise. We got a very good example
of this in the 2008 bear market where the S&P 500 index gave back in about
18 months all the gains that had taken it almost 5 years to accumulate (March
2003 to October 2007). The theoretical framework that many people use and that
which is still taught in finance classes across the globe continues to assume
that returns fall into a normal distribution. While it is useful to know that
modern portfolio theory and EMH are flimsy theories with no real world
applications, it doesn’t help us to recalibrate our instruments to just how
asymmetrical stock returns really are. To get at that answer, the research team
at Welton Investments compared the actual distribution of returns from the
S&P 500 index over the past 50 years with the expected risk based on a Monte
Carlo simulation. The results are shown in the chart below: [ chart Source:
Tail Risk ] This
study shows that investors continuously and severely underestimated negative
returns. In fact, going by rolling quarterly losses of 20% or more, investors
experienced 5.3 times more of these “fat tail” events than that accounted for
by the expectations based on a normal distribution. That difference is huge!
Knowing this historical reality, investors have two choices: either don’t play
the game (get out of stocks) or play but have a safety net handy for the
inevitable fall …’ ]Defying September's
track record of being unkind to investors, the stock market has shot up for the
past two weeks as investors have grown less fearful the economy will slip into
another recession.
Empire
State Manufacturing Falls in September
Technical Resistance: Here We Go Again Hui ‘…The odds seem to
favor another downleg for a couple of reasons.
First of all, investor sentiment has gotten incredibly bullish
in the space of a couple of weeks, which is contrarian bearish.
More important for the intermediate term, the market is facing a number of
macro headwinds of economic weakness starting in 4Q. John Hussman noted in his
latest weekly comment [emphasis added]: As I've noted frequently
in recent commentaries, the typical lag between deterioration in say, the ECRI
Weekly Leading Index and the ISM Purchasing Managers Index is about 13 weeks,
and sometimes longer. The typical lag with respect to new claims for
unemployment is about 23-26 weeks (which puts the likely window of
deterioration at about the October - November time frame), and the
typical lag with respect to the payroll unemployment report is, not
surprisingly, about 4 weeks beyond that.
Uber-bear Albert Edwards put it more bluntly:The
current situation reminds me of mid 2007. Investors then were content to stick
their heads into very deep sand and ignore the fact that The Great Unwind had
clearly begun. But in August and September 2007, even though the wheels were
clearly falling off the global economy, the S&P still managed to rally 15%!
The recent reaction to data suggests the market is in a similar deluded state
of mind. Yet again, equity investors refuse to accept they are now locked in a
Vulcan death grip and are about to fall unconscious…’
The Dow Is Overbought on Its Daily Chart
To
Dip or Double-Dip? Janjigian There
has been a lot of talk lately about whether or not we will have a double-dip
recession. I have long been in the camp that says a double-dip is a real
possibility. I believe the probability for a second recession is higher now
than it was last March. But how does one actually assign a number to this
probability? The economists Nouriel Roubini and Martin Feldstein are perhaps
the most bearish on the economy. They say the chances of a second recession are
about one in three. This means they believe that if the economy were to
experience the same exact conditions it is experiencing now hundreds of times,
one-third of those times would result in a recession. Another way to look at is
that the probability that we will not have a second recession is about 67%. In
other words, even the most bearish economists believe there is a much better
chance that we will avoid a second recession than there is that we will
actually have one … [ Hey, come on! If they only were the most bearish on the
economy … Economists Herald New Great
Depression The world is currently
experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression, according to a
prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others now forecasting
ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.) , and my position and that of demographer Dent (This is a global depression. This is a
secular bear market in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated
bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically
manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that
the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical
wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’.
This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is
served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed,
fined, and disgorgement imposed. Krugman: It's All Downhill From
Here Cullen Roche Love him or hate him
Paul Krugman has been awfully right with regards to the macro picture in the
last few years. He’s one of the rare economists who had the foresight to see
the housing bubble and the likelihood of economic downturn that would result
from it. Krugman recently caused a stir when he said the US economy was headed
for the third depression. He isn’t back down from that outlook:
I’ve had a couple of conversations
lately with people who follow politics and public affairs, but aren’t that
close to the economic discussion — and I’ve discovered that there are two
comforting delusions still out there.
Delusion #1 is that we’re on the road
to recovery, just more slowly than we’d like; to be fair, the White House keeps
saying this.
But it’s not at all true. GDP is
growing below potential; employment, even if you focus just on private
employment, is growing more slowly than the working-age population. If you ask
how long it will take us to return to, say, 5 percent unemployment on the
current track, the answer is forever.
Delusion #2 is the belief that the
stimulus may yet do the trick, because there are still substantial funds
unspent. I tried to deal with this last year.
The level of GDP depends not on total funds spent, but on the rate at which
funds are being spent, which has already peaked; GDP growth on the rate of
change in the rate at which funds are being spent, which peaked last year. It’s
all downhill from here.
Harry
Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012). ]
Industrial
output growth slows (Reuters) WASHINGTON (Reuters) – ‘U.S. industrial output slowed
last month and a regional measure of factory activity touched a 14-month low in
September, pointing to a cooling in manufacturing as the boost from an
inventory build-up fades. The reports on Wednesday were consistent with other
data suggesting the U.S. economy is stuck in a soft spot, but they also showed
the manufacturing sector continued to expand and
offered nothing to suggest a new recession was brewing. "We have a sharp
slowdown, but that doesn't look like it's going to develop into an outright
collapse," said Paul Ashworth, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics
in Toronto. Industrial production rose 0.2 percent in August, Federal Reserve
data showed, matching economists' forecasts for a sharp slowdown
from July when unusually strong auto manufacturing lifted output. July's gain
was revised down to 0.6 percent from 1 percent …’
Defacto bankrupt american politics are getting downright
nasty. Ask nancy
pelosi, ‘the wicked witch of the west’
http://albertpeia.com/nancypelosiwickedwitchofthewest.flv
.
Drudgereport: Doomsday warnings of US apocalypse gain
ground...
US poverty on track to post record
gain under Obama...
Last minute aid helps city dodge default...
NYC Disaster On Primary Day;
Machine Glitches Cause Chaos...
Bloomberg Blasts...
Feds probing...
US troops continue combat
missions in Iraq, despite Obama's end-of-war speech...
Poll workers being used to
inflate jobs totals?
Retirement on Hold: American Workers $6 Trillion Short...
REPUBLICAN ACCUSES WHITE HOUSE OF 'CLASS
WARFARE'...
Paul says GOP shares blame for deficits...
Kerry flip-flops on tax cuts...
Muslims protest Quran-burning plan...
Florida pastor calls it off...
Christians rip pages from Muslim holy book in
front of White House...
Man ignites Quran near Ground Zero...
VIDEO...
Mosque opponents, supporters face off in
downtown NYC...
OBAMA: 'We are not and never will
be at war with Islam'...
'Tea party' favorites score
in DE, NY...
Establishment Freaks...
'One nation under revolt'...
Christine Smacks Rove:
'So-Called Political Guru'...
CASH POURS IN FOR O'DONNELL; $500,000 IN ONE DAY...
Upsets...
RESULTS...
WIRE...
IN: RANGEL SURVIVES
CHALLENGE...
OUT: DC MAYOR VOTED DOWN IN UPSET...
HANGING: DINGELL WARNS DONORS
HE COULD LOSE...
Dems gamble by shifting fire
to Boehner...
Bill Clinton: New-look GOP
makes Bush look liberal!
POLL: Only 25% of public
trusts gov't...
The Crash, Obama and
Disappearing Dem Majority...
Jobless
strain Social Security's disability program (Washington Post) [ Jobless?
Strain? Disability? If only that were the only problem for the debacle that
will be called ‘social security’. Indeed, even at full employment, those
worthless iou’s will still be worthless as this typical capital hill political
math project will eventually, as with ponzi schemes generally, end very badly.
]
More
banks missing TARP dividend payments [ Isn’t it true as never before in the
short history of defacto bankrupt america, that nothing succeeds in america
quite like a lack of success? ] Bank Failure Friday
Continues at Seeking Alpha ‘…Bank Failure Friday
continues with the total number of failures for 2010 now up to 119 on the way
to 150 to 200, as the third quarter total ended September 10th at 33. During
“The Great Credit Crunch” the FDIC only closed 25 banks during all of 2008. In
2009 the FDIC picked up the pace with 140 bank failures with a peak of 50 in
the third quarter of 2009. So far in 2010 the FDIC closed 41 banks in the first
quarter, another 45 in the second quarter, and so far 33 for the third quarter.
With 119 bank failures so far in 2010 the total for “The Great Credit Crunch”
is up to 284 continuing its path to my predicted 500 to 800 by the end of 2012
into 2013 …]
Pearlstein:
A bold new breed of bank regulators (Washington Post) [ Wow! Gee! I had
always viewed Mr. Pearlstein as a grounded kind of guy. You know … somewhat
realistic … I guess I was wrong ‘cause who’s kidding whom? Criminal
prosecutions, jail, fines, and disgorgement are the only way to maximize
regulatory effectiveness, presently and prospectively. As of now, it pays for
the predisposed frauds to take what currently is miniscule chance of
prosecution for what have been and remain huge personal and corporate gains. Handcuffs For Wall Street, Not
Happy Talk Zach Carter | The fraud allegations that have emerged over the past year are not
restricted to a few bad apples at shady companies — they involve some of the
largest players in global finance. Finance groups: Long transition
to ease new bank rules (Washington Post) [ Basel’s all the rage … Riiiiight! Bonkers for Basel, the
thing in rally vogue this day … but,
not Basil as in Basil Rathbone of super sleuth Sherlock Holmes film fame who’d
make short shrift of this fraudulent wall street contagion that has swept over
Europe in a manner to rightfully earn the moniker ‘eventual black Friday
plague’ … and then there’s the ‘higher oil price’ part of the suckers’ rally.
We can certainly expect Rosanne Rosanna Danna formerly of SNL fame, as night
follows the day, to chime in with a reminder as her mama always used to say,
‘it’s always something’ … but unfortunately, that somethin’ is not reality. YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]:
‘Broad-based buying on the back of Basel III boosted stocks to their fourth
straight gain, or seventh advance in eight sessions. Still, participation
remained unimpressive ... ‘ AP Business Highlights
‘… Banks get years to
adjust to new global rules BASEL,
Switzerland (AP) -- Bankers and analysts said new global rules could mean less
money available to lend to businesses and consumers, but praised a decision to
leave plenty of time -- until 2019 -- before the financial stability
requirements come into full force’ ] The requirements adopted by the
Basel Committee on Banking Supervision fall short of what's needed to prevent
another financial crisis. ]
Buried Alive - Prominent Sell Signals
Is the Stock Market Safe? [ This time the consensus is correct, in a ‘fish
in a barrel’ kind of way! ]‘In a word,
no. That’s the general consensus found in a survey of individual investors done
by AP and CNBC this week. As if dealing with two major bear markets since the
turn of the century wasn’t enough, all the talk about high frequency trading
and the May 6th "Flash Crash" seems to have pushed individual
investors over the edge in terms of their comfort level with the stock market.
In fact, according to an AP/CNBC poll, 55% of those surveyed believe the stock
market is fair only to some investors. The bottom line of this particular
survey is that investors are now wary about the idea of using the stock market
as a way to invest for retirement. Instead, the survey found that the vast
majority of individual investors continue to pump unprecedented amounts of
money into what many believe is the most overvalued asset class on the planet –
government bonds. One result of the 10-plus year secular bear market in stocks
is the gradual erosion of the public’s interest and confidence in stocks as an
investment. Of course this HAS happened before. Anyone recall the 1982 cover of
Time magazine with the title “The Death of Equities?” Although the cyclical
bull market that began in March 2009 remains intact, the public has been
pulling money out of the market on a monthly basis. Since January 2008, the
Investment Company Institute reports that a total of $244 billion has been
withdrawn from US equity funds. Yet at the same time, a total of more than $589
billion has poured into US bond mutual funds, which is an unparalleled amount.
It appears that the "Flash Crash" may have been the straw that broke
the camel’s back. For example, in the 11 weeks prior to May 6th the public
pumped a strong $26.6 billion into equity mutual funds. This is hardly
surprising since during that time the market was rising steadily and had gained
more than 70% in the past 12 months. However, in the 16 weeks since the
"Flash Crash," investors have been running scared. In fact,
Investment Company Institute reports that the public has pulled money out of US
equity funds each and every week since, with cumulative withdrawals now
totaling $55.9 billion. Thus, it would appear that the market’s recent
volatility has caused the investing public to lose confidence in the market.
The AP/CNBC poll found that 61% of those surveyed felt the volatility has made
them less confident about buying and selling stocks. There is also a widespread
perception is that the market is rigged or unfair to the little guy. Nearly 90%
of the survey respondents whose portfolios are less than $50,000 said the
market is unfair to small investors. In addition, the public doesn’t seem to
have much faith in the administration to fix the situation in the market. The
poll found that just 8% expressed strong confidence in federal regulators while
50% expressed little-to-no confidence in those tasked with overseeing the
markets. Does this mean it is time to give up on the stock market as an
investment vehicle? We would respond with a resounding “no!” The trick is to
understand that the game has changed. After an 18-year bull market, the tide
has turned. As such, investors actually have to do something besides putting
money into any old mutual fund and closing their eyes. Disclosure: No
positions’ [Economists
Herald New Great Depression The world is
currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression,
according to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others
now forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.) ,
and my position and that of demographer
Dent (This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market
in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in
a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national
decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the
wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and
disgorgement imposed. Krugman:
It's All Downhill From Here Cullen Roche Love
him or hate him Paul Krugman has been awfully right with regards to the macro
picture in the last few years. He’s one of the rare economists who had the
foresight to see the housing bubble and the likelihood of economic downturn that
would result from it. Krugman recently caused a stir when he said the US
economy was headed for the third depression. He isn’t back down from that outlook:
I’ve had a couple of conversations
lately with people who follow politics and public affairs, but aren’t that
close to the economic discussion — and I’ve discovered that there are two
comforting delusions still out there.
Delusion #1 is that we’re on the road
to recovery, just more slowly than we’d like; to be fair, the White House keeps
saying this.
But it’s not at all true. GDP is
growing below potential; employment, even if you focus just on private
employment, is growing more slowly than the working-age population. If you ask
how long it will take us to return to, say, 5 percent unemployment on the
current track, the answer is forever.
Delusion #2 is the belief that the
stimulus may yet do the trick, because there are still substantial funds
unspent. I tried to deal with this last year. The level of GDP depends not on
total funds spent, but on the rate at which funds are being spent, which has
already peaked; GDP growth on the rate of change in the rate at which funds are
being spent, which peaked last year. It’s all downhill from here.
Harry
Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012). ]
Handcuffs
For Wall Street, Not Happy Talk Zach Carter | The fraud allegations that have emerged over the past year are not
restricted to a few bad apples at shady companies — they involve some of the
largest players in global finance.
Hatzius:
The Risks Are Still to the Downside
Drudgereport: 'Tea party' favorites lead in
NH, Delaware...
Establishment Freaks...
Upsets...
RESULTS...
WIRE...
Doomsday warnings of US
apocalypse gain ground...
US poverty on track
to post record gain under Obama...
Last minute aid helps city
dodge default...
REPUBLICAN ACCUSES WHITE
HOUSE OF 'CLASS WARFARE'...
Paul says GOP shares blame
for deficits...
Kerry flip-flops on tax
cuts...
Muslims protest Quran-burning
plan...
Florida pastor calls it
off...
Christians rip pages from
Muslim holy book in front of White House...
Man ignites Quran near Ground
Zero...
VIDEO...
Mosque opponents, supporters
face off in downtown NYC...
OBAMA: 'We are not
and never will be at war with Islam'...
Finance
groups: Long transition to ease new bank rules (Washington Post) [ Basel’s
all the rage … Riiiiight!
Bonkers for Basel, the thing in rally vogue this day … but, not Basil as in Basil Rathbone of super
sleuth Sherlock Holmes film fame who’d make short shrift of this fraudulent
wall street contagion that has swept over Europe in a manner to rightfully earn
the moniker ‘eventual black Friday plague’ … and then there’s the ‘higher oil
price’ part of the suckers’ rally. We can certainly expect Rosanne Rosanna
Danna formerly of SNL fame, as night follows the day, to chime in with a
reminder as her mama always used to say, ‘it’s always something’ … but
unfortunately, that somethin’ is not reality. YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]:
‘Broad-based buying on the back of Basel III boosted stocks to their fourth
straight gain, or seventh advance in eight sessions. Still, participation
remained unimpressive ... ‘ AP Business
Highlights ‘… Banks
get years to adjust to new global rules
BASEL, Switzerland (AP) -- Bankers and analysts said new global rules
could mean less money available to lend to businesses and consumers, but
praised a decision to leave plenty of time -- until 2019 -- before the
financial stability requirements come into full force ...’ ]Critics
caution, however, that the requirements adopted by the Basel Committee on
Banking Supervision fall short of what's needed to prevent another financial
crisis.
Cuba
to cut 500,000 workers, reform salaries (Washington Post) [ Boy, when
Castro said communism wasn’t working for them anymore, he wasn’t kidding! No
gloating for defacto bankrupt, pervasively corrupt america which is a far cry
from capitalism and but a whisper from collapse itself.]
Banks
miss TARP payments (Washington Post) [ Sounds like a plan! … Bank Failure Friday Continues at Seeking
Alpha ‘…Bank Failure Friday continues with the total number of
failures for 2010 now up to 119 on the way to 150 to 200, as the third quarter
total ended September 10th at 33. During “The Great Credit Crunch” the FDIC
only closed 25 banks during all of 2008. In 2009 the FDIC picked up the pace
with 140 bank failures with a peak of 50 in the third quarter of 2009. So far
in 2010 the FDIC closed 41 banks in the first quarter, another 45 in the second
quarter, and so far 33 for the third quarter. With 119 bank failures so far in
2010 the total for “The Great Credit Crunch” is up to 284 continuing its path
to my predicted 500 to 800 by the end of 2012 into 2013 … (see rest of article
infra)]
Doomsday
warnings of US apocalypse gain ground AFP | Economists peddling dire warnings that the world’s
number one economy is on the brink of collapse.
A subtler tack to fight Afghan corruption?
(Washington
Post) [ How about a not so subtler tack
to fight corruption starting right here in the u.s. of a. where corruption and
crime are pervasive and in fact, at the root of the Afghanistan problems, from
american reinvigorated heroin trade to bribery attendant thereto to killing
civilians, etc.. Defacto Bankrupt, Meaningfully Lawless,
War Criminal Nation america, the leader of nations … in crime:
Though having but 5% of the world’s population, america can
boast 76% of the world’s serial killers, followed by Europe with England/UK
then Germany leading the way for the eu [excerpt, 6 minute video, Serial
Killers: Real Life Hannibal Lechters http://www.albertpeia.com/realifeamericaserialkillers.mpg (as is consistent with crime generally,
see infra)]. Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive
(defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of
the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern emerging
here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed employees, cia,
all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in this evolved
american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense ( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
) ]:
Rank |
|||
# 1
|
11,877,218 |
|
|
# 2
|
6,523,706 |
|
|
# 3
|
6,507,394 |
|
… ]
Bank Failure Friday Continues at Seeking
Alpha ‘…Bank Failure Friday continues with the total number of
failures for 2010 now up to 119 on the way to 150 to 200, as the third quarter
total ended September 10th at 33. During “The Great Credit Crunch” the FDIC
only closed 25 banks during all of 2008. In 2009 the FDIC picked up the pace
with 140 bank failures with a peak of 50 in the third quarter of 2009. So far
in 2010 the FDIC closed 41 banks in the first quarter, another 45 in the second
quarter, and so far 33 for the third quarter. With 119 bank failures so far in
2010 the total for “The Great Credit Crunch” is up to 284 continuing its path
to my predicted 500 to 800 by the end of 2012 into 2013.
The
failed bank was publicly-traded Horizon Bank (HZNB.OB), which had huge
overexposures to C&D and CRE loans with risk ratios of 358% and 1769%
versus the ignored regulatory guidelines of 100% and 300% of risk-based
capital. The commitment pipeline of commercial real estate loans was 99% funded
as “extend and pretend” caused this failure. The consolidator bank has been
used before by the FDIC; Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK) which has a HOLD rating according to
ValuEngine.
Here
are some statistics from the FDIC for the Second Quarter 2010: There were 45
bank failures in the second quarter, and we ended the quarter with the number
of FDIC-insured financial institutions declining to 7,893, of which 1306 are
publicly-traded.
·
1172 of all community banks (14.8%) are overexposed to Construction &
Development Loans.
·
1432 or 18.1% are overexposed to Nonfarm / Nonresidential real estate loans.
·
2504 or 31.7% are thus overexposed to Commercial Real Estate loans.
·
1317 or 16.7% have a real estate loan pipeline that’s 100% funded.
·
2622 or 33.2% have a pipeline that’s between 80% and 100% funded.
·
3939 of 49.9% of all banks have a pipeline that’s 80% or more funded. So
half the community banks in America remain overleveraged to Commercial Real
Estate and the possible losses remain about $1.5 trillion.
Publicly-Traded
Banks:
·
293 of the 1306 publicly-traded banks are overexposed to C&D loans
·
394 are overexposed to Nonfarm / Nonresidential real estate loans.
·
687 or 52.6% of the publicly-traded banks are thus overexposed to Commercial
Real Estate loans. We publish this list as the ValuEngine List of Problem
Banks.
·
234 publicly-traded banks have a real estate loan portfolio that’s 100% funded.
·
463 have a real estate loan portfolio between 80% and 100% funded.
·
697 thus have significant real estate loan pipeline stress.
Problem
Banks at the end of the Second Quarter versus the First Quarter:
·
Given
the waves of bank failures the total assets among the 686 Publicly-Traded
Problem Banks declined to $135.9 billion from $164.7 billion in the first
quarter. C&D loans declined to $12.7 billion from $16.4 billion with a CRE
loan pipeline steady at 78.1% versus 78.0%.
·
Assets
among the 91 Deadbeat Banks, (those in arrears on making TARP dividend
payments), totals $99.9 billion with C&D loans at $10.9 billion and a CRE
pipeline of 80.9%.
·
Assets
among failed publicly-traded banks increased to $122.5 billion from $116.7
billion in the first quarter. C&D loans increased to $22.3 billion from
$21.5 billion. The CRE loan pipeline increased a tick to 90.4% from 90.3%.
Assets among banks with a CRE pipeline
of 80% or more funded increased to $3.84 trillion including $121.3 billion in
C&D loans. The average pipeline for 3939 banks is 92.0%. Among this list
are four big banks that will likely see waves of write-offs in upcoming
quarters.
·
JP
Morgan Chase (JPM)
with $1.72 trillion in assets has a pipeline of 80%.
·
SunTrust
Banks (STI) has $160.5 billion in assets with an 83%
pipeline.
·
BB&T
Corp (BBT) has $149.2 billion in assets with an 84%
pipeline.
·
Fifth
Third Bank (FITB) has
100.0 billion in assets with an 84% pipeline.
Disclosure: No positions’
U.S. Trade Deficit Still Growing
Defacto Bankrupt, Meaningfully Lawless, War Criminal Nation
america, the leader of nations … in crime:
Though having but 5% of the world’s population, america can
boast 76% of the world’s serial killers, followed by Europe with England/UK
then Germany leading the way for the eu [excerpt, 6 minute video, Serial
Killers: Real Life Hannibal Lechters http://www.albertpeia.com/realifeamericaserialkillers.mpg (as is consistent with crime generally,
see infra)]. Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive
(defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of
the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern
emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed
employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in
this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense
( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
) ]:
Rank |
|||
# 1
|
11,877,218 |
|
|
# 2
|
6,523,706 |
|
|
# 3
|
6,507,394 |
|
|
# 4
|
3,771,850 |
|
|
# 5
|
2,952,370 |
|
|
# 6
|
2,853,739 |
|
|
# 7
|
2,683,849 |
|
|
# 8
|
2,516,918 |
|
|
# 9
|
2,231,550 |
|
|
# 10
|
1,764,630 |
|
|
# 11
|
1,543,220 |
|
|
# 12
|
1,516,029 |
|
|
# 13
|
1,422,863 |
|
|
# 14
|
1,404,229 |
|
|
# 15
|
1,340,529 |
|
|
# 16
|
1,234,784 |
|
|
# 17
|
973,548 |
|
|
# 18
|
923,271 |
|
|
# 19
|
593,997 |
|
|
# 20
|
565,108 |
|
|
# 21
|
553,594 |
|
|
# 22
|
552,411 |
|
|
# 23
|
520,194 |
|
|
# 24
|
491,026 |
|
|
# 25
|
427,230 |
|
|
# 26
|
420,782 |
|
|
# 27
|
372,341 |
|
|
# 28
|
351,153 |
|
|
# 29
|
330,071 |
|
|
# 30
|
312,204 |
|
|
# 31
|
307,631 |
|
|
# 32
|
286,482 |
|
|
# 33
|
283,702 |
|
|
# 34
|
236,165 |
|
|
# 35
|
218,360 |
|
|
# 36
|
214,192 |
|
|
# 37
|
167,173 |
|
|
# 38
|
Peru: |
161,621 |
|
# 39
|
148,915 |
|
|
# 40
|
134,010 |
|
|
# 41
|
132,867 |
|
|
# 42
|
130,375 |
|
|
# 43
|
107,373 |
|
|
# 44
|
102,783 |
|
|
# 45
|
101,853 |
|
|
# 46
|
92,646 |
|
|
# 47
|
85,776 |
|
|
# 48
|
84,599 |
|
|
# 49
|
81,697 |
|
|
# 50
|
81,274 |
|
|
# 51
|
80,592 |
|
|
# 52
|
60,242 |
|
|
# 53
|
59,426 |
|
|
# 54
|
57,799 |
|
|
# 55
|
49,329 |
|
|
# 56
|
44,762 |
|
|
# 57
|
40,263 |
|
|
# 58
|
39,188 |
|
|
# 59
|
38,620 |
|
|
# 60
|
36,302 |
|
|
# 61
|
35,943 |
|
|
# 62
|
31,138 |
|
|
# 63
|
26,046 |
|
|
# 64
|
24,066 |
|
|
# 65
|
21,058 |
|
|
# 66
|
19,814 |
|
|
# 67
|
19,350 |
|
|
# 68
|
18,301 |
|
|
# 69
|
17,023 |
|
|
# 70
|
15,520 |
|
|
# 71
|
15,029 |
|
|
# 72
|
13,292 |
|
|
# 73
|
13,023 |
|
|
# 74
|
12,048 |
|
|
# 75
|
Oman: |
11,782 |
|
# 76
|
8,872 |
|
|
# 77
|
7,857 |
|
|
# 78
|
7,026 |
|
|
# 79
|
5,838 |
|
|
# 80
|
5,303 |
|
|
# 81
|
4,297 |
|
|
# 82
|
751 |
|
|
|
Total: |
63,531,202 |
|
|
Weighted average: |
774,770.8 |
|
DEFINITION: Note:
Crime statistics are often
better indicators of prevalence of law enforcement and willingness to report crime (I believe, and facts support, crime in
america to be substantially under-reported and under-prosecuted owing to
pervasive corruption, arbitrary enforcement of the law, etc.) than actual
prevalence.
SOURCE: The Eighth United Nations Survey on Crime Trends and
the Operations of Criminal Justice Systems (2002) (United Nations Office on
Drugs and Crime, Centre for International Crime Prevention)
Drudgereport: Doomsday warnings of US
apocalypse gain ground...
US poverty on track
to post record gain under Obama...
Last minute aid helps city
dodge default...
REPUBLICAN ACCUSES WHITE
HOUSE OF 'CLASS WARFARE'...
Paul says GOP shares blame
for deficits...
Kerry flip-flops on tax
cuts...
Muslims protest Quran-burning
plan...
Florida pastor calls it
off...
Christians rip pages from
Muslim holy book in front of White House...
Man ignites Quran near Ground
Zero...
VIDEO...
Mosque opponents, supporters
face off in downtown NYC...
OBAMA: 'We are not
and never will be at war with Islam'...
Unemployment
Claims Not as Bullish as They Seem (Why?
Kudrna:‘The Labor Department reported
Thursday morning that new claims for unemployment dropped a seasonally adjusted
27,000 to 451,000. Unexpected bullish news, right? The markets immediately
gapped-up on this information as the bulls found good reason to buy. Unexpected
positive news is almost always met with a bullish move north as it’s rarely
priced in. However, a useful tidbit of information about that shockingly large
drop came out after the gap-up. Bloomberg reported that nine states didn't file
claims data to the Labor Department in Washington because of the Labor Day
holiday earlier this week. California and Virginia estimated their figures and
the U.S. government estimated the other seven. Coincidence in the large drop or
not? We will see when the next revision comes out but usually those revisions
fail to make headlines as we are already focusing on future claims. This has
been a great cover-up method for a long time…’
How Government
Reporting Will Intensify the Inevitable , On Friday September 10, 2010,
12:41 pm EDT ‘Natural
carbonation keeps a champagne bottle under constant pressure. The more you
shake the bottle, the higher the pressure gets and the further the cork will
eventually fly. Figuratively speaking, the government has been shaking the
bottle. Watch out when the cork pops. On August 10, the Associated Press
reported that the Federal Reserve has found a new trick to jumpstart the
economy. Below is the full quote that shows why we probably can't expect
unbiased assessments coming out of Washington, or the Fed's corner: 'The
Federal Reserve policymakers are pondering ways to jumpstart the economic
recovery. The trick: making sure whatever they do or say doesn't rattle Wall
Street.' Some of the recent government statistics have been 'interesting' no
doubt, and we know the administration has spent trillions in an attempt to lift
the economy, but would it go as far as actually fudging statistics? We'll
examine potential cases for 'data spiking' in a moment, but for now we'll take
a look at one of the most popular government statistics, which is misleading to
say the least.
GDP - Like a Flag in the Wind
GDP reports are prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and are a
science all in itself. GDP reports are often revised. The 'advance' estimate is
published at the end of the first month following the close of a quarter. In
addition to the 'advance' estimate, there are first and second revisions called
the 'preliminary' and 'final' estimates. The 'final' estimate is reviewed
annually, usually in July. Once every several years, the BEA reviews all data
back to 1929. On July 30, the BEA lowered Q2 2010 growth from an estimated 2.7%
to 2.4%. The real GDP for all three previous years was revised as well. It was
lowered by 0.2% for 2007, it was lowered by 0.6% for 2008 and it was lowered by
0.4% for 2009 (see chart below)[chart]. In percentage terms, the real GDP for
2007 was revised down from 2.5% growth to 2.3%. The 2008 decrease was lowered
from 1.9% to 2.8%, and 2009 growth was revised up from a 0.1% to a 0.2%
increase. In essence, the BEA proved that the recession was (or is) much deeper
and the alleged recovery much weaker than previously reported. Imagine if you
would have based your 2007 and 2008 investment decisions on GDP reports. But
wait, there is more. On August 27, the BEA lowered the Q2 2010 GDP growth from
2.4% to 1.6%. The financial media, however, applauded the reduction since
the final 1.6 number was still higher than the 1.4% economists expected. Stocks
rallied over 2% that day.
Unemployment Numbers - Not Deserving of Your Trust
Unemployment in August increased from 9.5% to 9.6%, but that's ok. Why?
According to the financial media, the increase of unemployment was due to an
increase in labor force. An estimated 6.6 million students will be graduating
and joining the labor force this year. An increasing labor force is a reality,
not an excuse to rationalize higher unemployment numbers. The real unemployment
rate (U-6) reported by the BLS (but neglected by the financial media) jumped
from 16.5% to 16.7%. Nevertheless, stocks rallied nearly 3% when unemployment
figures were released on September 3rd. According to the BLS, the manufacturing
sector lost 27,000 jobs in August. This, however, contradicts the positive
August ISM manufacturing report, which rose from 55.5% to 56.3%. Here is
the analysis from the Institute for Supply Management: 'A PMI in excess of 42
percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall
economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates growth for the 16th consecutive month in
the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the
13th consecutive month.' If you ask the unemployed, it doesn't feel like the
manufacturing sector is improving.
Changing Rules to Accommodate Growth
Amidst the biggest financial meltdown since the Great Depression, the
administration had to act quickly. The sheer amount of toxic assets overwhelmed
the banking (NYSEArca: KBE - News)
and financial sectors (NYSEArca: XLF - News),
which led to the fall of Lehman Brothers and credit contraction around the
globe (NYSEArca: EFA - News).
It was impossible to eliminate trillions of bad loans or revive the ailing real
estate market (NYSEArca: IYR - News).
It was impossible to prop up faltering sectors like consumer discretionary
(NYSEArca: XLY - News)
and technology (NYSEArca: XLK - News).
In short, it was impossible to change reality. It was, however, possible to
change the prevailing perception and hide the root problems. In fact, it wasn't
just possible; it proved to be fairly easy. The government simply urged the
Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) to change some rules. On April 2,
2009, the FASB changed Rule 157. The ripple effect caused by massive real
estate losses suffered by the 'too big to fail' banks (NYSEArca: IYF
- News),
as well as regional banks (NYSEArca: KRE
- News),
threatened the integrity of the entire system. The 157 Rule change allowed
banks to park all their losses in a bucket called other comprehensive income
(OCI). OCI appears on the balance sheet, but not on the income statement and
thus does not affect earnings. In late 2009 and early 2010, banks exceeded
their earnings expectations - at least on paper - which created the perception
that the economy was recovering. As it turns out, the timing for the Rule 157
change was perfect and coincided with the biggest stock market rally in recent
history. A 50%+ run in the Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI), S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), and
Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) intensified the perception that the economy was on the
mend. Before the accounting rule change and other government efforts, the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter predicted the biggest rally since the October 2007
all-time highs. Via the March 2nd Trend Change Alert, the newsletter advised to
close out previously recommended short positions (some gained 100% and more)
and buy long and leveraged ETFs, many of which gained 50%, 100% or more.
Back to the Future
All was well until April 2010. Prior to the April highs, Mr. Bernanke, Mr.
Geithner, and the President were campaigning for their fair share of credit for
rescuing and reviving the country. Rather than examining and disclosing some of
the government's questionable methods, the media jumped on the bandwagon and
tickled the alleged 'saviors' egos. By doing so, the pressure in the champagne
bottle was increased. More investors bought stocks under the mistaken view the
economy had improved. This increased the pool of stock owners and the pipeline
of sellers. As per the most recent GDP numbers, investors found out that the
state of the economy is worse than previously thought. Furthermore, the
government has lost credibility and some of its associated ability to inflate
stock market confidence. Watch out, once the cork blows! Investors
leaving the market could send prices falling as fast as champagne gushing out
of a bottle. In fact, this exodus probably started already. On April 16,
the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted that: 'The cork seems to have popped.
Reality is setting in. The pieces are in place for a major decline.' Following
the April highs, the ensuing decline erased eight months worth of gains in a
mere 22 trading days. An initial wave of somewhat critical media reports
quickly faded as the stock market stabilized. Sideways trading tends to calm
the nerves and get investors re-engaged before the hammer drops again. What's
the moral of the story? Faulty
government data and trend-following media reports tend to distort the real
picture and postpone and intensify the inevitable.
The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
combines the analysis of various indicators with common sense and
out-of-the-box thinking to formulate a short, mid, and long-term forecast.’
Drudgereport:
Thousands
of Afghans protest Quran-burning plan...
Tennessee
preacher to burn Quran...
Topeka,
Kansas church vows burning...
Protester
plans to burn on Wyoming's Capitol steps...
FLASHBACK:
Muslims Burn Bibles and Destroy Crosses...
Ground Zero imam ignores pastor's two-hour deadline...
12
soldiers face trial after Afghan civilians 'were killed for sport and their
fingers collected as trophies'...
GOV'T
MAKES IT UP: JOBS NUMBERS 'ESTIMATED' FOR WEEK...
'BETTER
THAN EXPECTED'...
Treasuries
Tumble Following Weak 30-Year Sale...
U.S.
drops in competitiveness ( Washington Post ) [ Fourth place for pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america?
I don’t think so; not in their wildest dreams, and there’s a lot of that in
america these days, but little else. Reality says america’s place should be in
the twenties at best. Previous: U.S.
drops in competitiveness
(Washington Post) [ Singapore, Sweden, … ? Don’t make me laugh! From defacto bankrupt, meaningfully lawless
america’s perspective, this fallen ranking was a gift and one must be asking,
what were they smoking (or whose money were they taking?) and is the rest of the
world really that bad off? ] Large deficits
and a weakened financial system make the U.S. less competitive in the global
economy, according to World Economic Forum's new ranking. Sweden
Is A Better Place To Do Business Than The U.S. – [Well, that part is true, but
…]. ‘…Sweden, by contrast, has
“the world’s most transparent and efficient public institutions, with very low
levels of corruption and undue influence.” Which loosely translated from
wonk-speak sounds like, “You’re better off dealing with honest socialists than
crony capitalists.”’ [ True enough, but I still don’t buy it (the rankings),
especially america’s fourth place (as opposed to lower) ranking.]
Yeah! The lack of
prosecutions and teeth therein has led to continued and bolder frauds and a
complicit u.s. government! Stocks
extend gains after drop in jobless claims [ Washington Post ] I was very disappointed to see this headline
without disclaimer. Very disheartening. [ It’s
really quite amazing, and you won’t get this from the ‘money honeys’ or other
mainstream drivel (actually I got this from the CBS news reporter, 1070am
radio, but NOT their business report), the so-called better than expected jobs
report (albeit bad at 451,000 continuing claims) was actually based upon
federal government estimates for those reports that were not submitted owing to
the holiday … and we all know how conservative the u.s. government is in making
estimates, especially in election cycles when desperation abounds … riiiiight!
( Drudgereport: GOV'T
MAKES IT UP: JOBS NUMBERS 'ESTIMATED' FOR WEEK... 'BETTER
THAN EXPECTED'... ) Then
there’s the ‘need more capital’ news from among the strongest players in the
European sector, viz., Germany’s Deutsch Bank, which can only mean,
particularly in light of their adoption of the fraudulent wall street american
mark to anything valuation of worthless paper, still out there in the many
(hundreds?) of trillions. (see infra, ‘…ECB chief economist Jurgen Stark tells
German MPs that the banking system is insolvent. This led to complete shock
because the newspaper headlines from July suggested the opposite. The German
policy establishment is under the illusion that its banking system is sound
because it passed what turned out to be fraudulent stress test…’) Now, if the
German banking system’s insolvent, is there a term for double, triple,
quadrupal, etc., insolvent for what the american banking system must be? One
doesn’t need clairvoyance to know that only bodes ill. Stocks Cling to Skinny Gains, Can't Shake Banking
Concerns ]
The Eerie Implications of Market
Volume and Mutual Fund Flows ‘… Here's a more compelling question: If
two-thirds or more of daily volume is a function of high-frequency trading,
what are the implications for index prices over the long haul? A year has
passed since I posted some charts illustrating the incredible ratio of S&P
500 volume devoted to five financial stocks. Today's game is no doubt different
from last September. It may be about making money, but it probably has little
to do with investing — which may explain a lot about current volume metrics and
mutual fund flows. I'll update these volume charts periodically in the months
ahead.’
Report From Europe: Fall in U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
Cheers Stocks The Mole …
Today is Rosh Hashanah, the jewish New Year, in which it is believed the names
of the righteous are recorded in the book of life, those in the middle ground
are given ten days to repent and become good, while the wicked are deleted from
the book of life. In essence, it is make or break time for the year. One wonders
if we might be entering a similar phase for Ireland with landmark decisions
over the fate of Anglo Irish Bank taken (with the cost of the funeral to be
know in early October) and the funding cliff for Irish banks to refund some
€25bn of maturing debt this month pending (though I feel fears over their
capacity to roll this debt is way overblown)…
Today’s Market Moving Stories
Worth a read: Michael Lewis has a field
day: Beware of Greeks Bearing Bonds (Vanity Fair)
Drudgereport:
GOV'T
MAKES IT UP: JOBS NUMBERS 'ESTIMATED' FOR WEEK...
'BETTER
THAN EXPECTED'...
Treasuries
Tumble Following Weak 30-Year Sale...
600
Lockheed execs take buyout
(Washington Post) [ Talk about
having your fingers on the economic / fiscal pulse of the nation. This should
be a new leading economic indicator which, unlike many of the others, is less
prone to manipulation. All hail, the ‘golden goose’ is dead! Drudgereport: MORGAN STANLEY: U.S. Government Bond
Defaults Inevitable … This is a global depression. This is a
secular bear market in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated
bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically
manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that
the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical
wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior
crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until
justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted,
jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. ] The move reflects a shift underway as defense
contractors scramble to prepare for Pentagon budget cuts.
U.S.
drops in competitiveness
(Washington Post) [ Singapore, Sweden, … ? Don’t make me laugh! From defacto bankrupt, meaningfully lawless
america’s perspective, this fallen ranking was a gift and one must be asking,
what were they smoking (or whose money were they taking?) and is the rest of
the world really that bad off? ] Large
deficits and a weakened financial system make the U.S. less competitive in the
global economy, according to World Economic Forum's new ranking.
Afghans question U.S.-style capitalism (Washington Post) [ As indeed they should inasmuch as the same is neither capitalism nor american style in the traditional sense referenced here. Defacto bankrupt, in decline, and pervasively corrupt, meaningfully lawless america is a nation unworthy of emulation! ] Kabul Bank became the pride of Afghanistan's financial system by offering the conveniences and thrills of 21st-century capitalism. But the scene outside the bank's headquarters Wednesday was far from that modern ideal.
Fed
sees widespread slowdown of growth (Washington Post) [ Stocks rally anyway
… the ‘miracle of computerized programmed trading’ even if the math and
fundamentals don’t add up …
Bad Math - Why The Bullish Case Doesn't Add Up , On Wednesday September 8, 2010, 3:19 pm
EDT
1+1=2 2+2=4
The simplicity and accuracy of those calculations is undeniable. How about this
equation? Fundamental Weakness + Technical Sell Signals + Overpriced Stocks =
Lower Stock Prices. This calculation also seems to be simple and accurate.
Let's look at some equations that don't make sense.
1+1=3 or Better Earnings = Higher Stock Prices
Earnings season is over. Most companies beat earnings but issued cautious
forecasts. This is particularly true of the tech (NYSEArca: XLK
- News)
and financial sectors (NYSEArca: XLF - News).
By large, profits are still driven by cost-cutting, not organic growth. Retail
sales, which make up about one third of the economy, continued to fall after
the second quarter ended. Additionally, the expectation that taxes will go up
might have moved some companies to pull some of next year's income into this
year. This can't be good for Q3 and Q4 profits. As we've seen in January and
April of 2010, positive earnings reports are not bullish for stocks, especially
if future guidance is weak.
2+2=5 or Weaker than Expected Economy = Rising Stock Prices
On July 30, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) lowered the Q2 Gross Domestic
Product (GD) growth from an estimated 2.7% to 2.4%. On August 27, the Q2 GDP
was lowered further to a jaw-dropping 1.6%. But it didn't stop there. The real
GDP for all three previous years was revised as well. It was lowered by 0.2%
for 2007, it was lowered by 0.6% for 2008, and it was lowered by 0.4% for 2009.
In percentage terms, the real GDP for 2007 was revised down from 2.5% growth to
2.3%. The 2008 decrease was lowered from 1.9% to 2.8% and 2009 growth was
revised up from a 0.1% to a 0.2% increase. In essence, the BEA proved that the
recession was (or is) much deeper than perceived and the alleged recovery much
weaker than previously reported. This comes as no surprise, as the key sector
of the financial debacle - real estate (NYSEArca: IYR
- News)
- remains in a funk. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that the number of vacant
properties, including foreclosures, residences for sale, and vacation homes,
reached 18.9 million. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continue to lose money. Has
anyone ever wondered how banks (NYSEArca: KBE
- News)
can make money on the same kind of loans that pushed Fannie and Freddie to the
brink of ruin? Since bad real estate loans triggered the post 2007 economic
meltdown, how can the economy recover without real estate leading the way?
3+3=7 or Positive Analyst Estimates = Higher Stock Prices
A recent Associated Press article observed that 'analysts only seem to hit the
mark with their estimates in the strongest economic times (2003 - 2006).' Why?
'The problem is that analysts get most of their information from the companies
they cover. Corporate managers have every incentive to stay positive for as
long as they can.' Is that true; as true as 1+1=2? On April 26, the day the
S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) topped at 1,219, the Dow (DJI: ^DJI) at 11,258, the Nasdaq
(Nasdaq: ^IXIC) at 2,535, Bloomberg reported the following: 'U.S. stocks
cheapest since 1990 on analyst estimates.' Contrary to analyst estimates, the
ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter stated that 'the potential exists that Monday's
high marked a significant top.' Since April, the broad market dropped as much
as 17%. In March 2009, with the Dow below 7000 and the S&P below 700,
analysts lowered their earnings forecasts from $113 in April 2008 to $40. On
March 2nd, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter sent out a Trend Change Alert and
recommended to buy long and leveraged long ETFs such as the Direxion Daily
Financial Bull 3X Shares (NYSEArca: FAS
- News)
and Ultra S&P 500 ProShares (NYSEArca: SSO
- News).
If
you care to know, until recently, analysts estimated that earnings for the
S&P 500 will exceed their 2006 all-time high, in 2011. Based on that
assumption, stocks are cheap. How about that for flawed math?
4+4=9 or Technical Sell Signals = Higher Stock Prices
The 200-day moving average (MA) is one of the best-known technical indicators,
as it provides delineation between technically healthy and sick stocks. On May
20, the S&P closed below the 200-day MA for the first time since late 2007.
Every attempt to rally and stay above it has since failed miserably. On July 2,
the 50-day MA for the S&P dropped below its 200-day MA for the first time
since late 2007. The same holds true for mid caps (NYSEArca: MDY
- News),
small caps (NYSEArca: IWM - News)
and nearly all individual sector indexes. For good reason, this is called a
Death Cross. Over the past ten years, the death cross has been accurate 75% of
the time, with a 19.72% average return on six winning trades and 6.95% average
return on two losing trades. [chart] In addition to the Death Cross, there are
two head and shoulders patterns, one in the making for over 10 years, and the
other has the breadth suggestive of a major meltdown (see September ETF Profit
Strategy Newsletter).
5+5=11 or Overvalued Stocks = Higher Prices
As explained above, based on overly optimistic earnings estimates, analysts
believe that stocks are cheap. Rather than basing a future outlook on
estimates, it makes sense to use facts as a foundation for any outlook. Why add
an extra variable to what's already an unpredictable market? Ask Yale Professor
Robert Shiller, who's done extensive research on the subject of valuations, and
he'll tell you stocks are historically overvalued based on the current P/E
ratio. Compare today's P/E ratio with the P/E ratio seen at major market
bottoms, and you'll see that stocks are overvalued by more than 50%. Another
gauge that doesn't lie is dividend yields. A company's dividends are a direct
reflection of cash flow and financial health. The current yield is 2.65% for
the Dow and 2.05% for the S&P. Dividends are close to their all-time
low set in 1999 (we know what happened then). This means that companies are cash
strapped and overvalued. Looking at a long-term chart of dividend yields
plotted against stock prices shows clearly that markets don't bottom until
dividends skyrocket. Just as ice doesn't thaw unless the temperature moves
above 32 degrees, the economy won't thaw and show signs of life unless P/E
ratios drop to, and dividend yields rise to, levels seen at major market
bottoms. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
includes a detailed analysis of four valuation metrics, along with short-term
target ranges for stocks and the ultimate market bottom. Based on simple math
and common sense, the July lows are certainly in danger. But it doesn't stop
there.
Report From Europe: Panic Amongst the PIIGS (Seeking Alpha – The Mole) [ Sounds
far from hunky-dory to me and as the
wall street frauds would have you believe and used as a rallying point this
day. Total b*** s***! ] ‘U.S. stocks fell for the first time in five days
Tuesday, ending the longest streak of gains for the S&P 500 Index since July,
on concern the European debt crisis may worsen and hamper global growth. Bank
of America (BAC) and
Citigroup (C) fell at least 2% as European banks slid on
concern stress tests understated potential losses from sovereign debt.
Meanwhile ConocoPhillips (COP) and Chevron (CVX) slumped more than 1.2% as crude oil fell
the most in a week. But Oracle (ORCL) rallied 5.9%
after naming Mark Hurd, former chief executive officer of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) as president. Today, despite some token
buying by the ECB and a decent Portuguese bond auction, the bond vigilantes
have again been out doing their worst pushing the Irish / German 10 year spread
out to levels not seem since 1988 when the debt GDP ratio was 118% . Indeed
yesterday saw the worst single daily performance by Irish Government
bonds ever in terms of spread widening. Greece is also back in the
crosshairs in response to a downward revision to Q2 Greek GDP to -1.8% from
-1.5% originally, and on news the National Bank of Greece plans to raise Eur2.8
bln of capital. The latter may be especially alarming in the current
environment, but really reflects a desire for extra security and also a cash
hoard to potentially spend on weaker rivals. ATEbank stands prominently in this
respect. (picture)
Today’s Market Moving Stories
The stand-out mover in FX today was GBP, which rallied sharply, largely it
would seem on news that Vodafone (VOD) has sold
its stake in China Mobile and intends to use 70% of the proceeds (Ł4.2bn) to
fund share buybacks. The macros community had started to build GBP shorts in
recent days and this M&A flow prompted a flurry of short-covering, assisted
as well by better than feared Halifax house price data.
Irish Banking
According to the Irish Times this morning, the bank’s chairman has stated that
a statement on Anglo should be expected today. Who will make it or what the
nature of the announcement will be is not evident, but keep eyes peeled around
4pm. Recent media reports have indicated strongly that an orderly wind down of
the bank over 10-15yrs is the new preferred option. But what the markets are
really looking for is an update on the total FINAL bottom line kitchen sink
cost of the bailout and whether its closer to Eur 25bn or S&P’s recent
& much criticized Eur 35bn figure. UPDATE – SEE VERY BOTTOM OF THIS POST.
Bloomberg reports that private equity heavyweight J.C. Flowers and three other
bidders for Ireland’s EBS Building Society may buy and merge several lenders to
create a new competitor to the country’s biggest banks, two people familiar
with the situation said. J.C. Flowers., the U.S. buyout firm, Dublin-based
Cardinal Asset Management, backed by U.S. private equity firm Carlyle Group,
and Doughty Hanson & Co. are vying with Irish Life & Permanent Plc (ILPMF.PK) to take control of EBS, said the
people who declined to be identified. Each of the bidders said in talks that they
plan to merge EBS, the country’s biggest customer-owned lender, with other
building societies. That would create a new rival to Bank of Ireland Plc (IRE) and Allied Irish Banks Plc (AIB), the country’s biggest lenders. EBS and
the National Treasury Management Agency, which is overseeing the sale, will
probably select a preferred bidder or two short-listed bidders next week,
according to one of the people.
Japan
Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said he is prepared to take “bold”
action on currencies, including intervention in foreign-exchange markets, after
the yen reached a 15-year high against the dollar. “We will take bold action if
necessary and naturally that can include intervention,” Noda told lawmakers in
parliament today. “We have to use every option available as a strong yen is
likely to have a severe impact on companies.” The yen rose to 83.52 per dollar
yesterday, the highest level since June 1995, as concerns about weakening
growth in the U.S. and Europe bolstered the currency’s appeal as a refuge.
UK Outlook
A U.K. index of hiring for permanent jobs in August showed the slowest growth
pace in 10 months, KPMG LLP and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation
said. The gauge of full-time job placements dropped to 56.3 from 60.2 in July,
the groups said in an e-mailed report today in London. That’s the slowest pace
since October. Readings above 50 indicate an increase in hiring. The U.K. is
bracing itself for a period of austerity as Prime Minister David Cameron
pledges to reduce the country’s record budget deficit. U.K. shop price
inflation accelerated in August as the price of food rose at the quickest
annual pace in over a year, a survey showed Tuesday. Total shop price inflation
was 1.7% on the year in August and 0.1% on the month, compared with a 1.5%
annual rate and 0.1% monthly decline in prices in July, the monthly survey by
the British Retail Consortium showed. That was due to a more-than-one
percentage point rise in the cost of food. Food prices were 3.8% higher in
August than a year earlier, while food prices rose 0.2% from July. And July’s
UK industrial production figures suggest that the manufacturing sector
continues to enjoy steady, if unspectacular, growth. The 0.3% rise in
manufacturing output was the third such gain in a row and pushed the yoy rate
of output growth up to a new cycle high of 4.9%. Overall industrial production
saw a similar monthly gain. For now, then, the output data are defying the
rather gloomier tone of some of the recent industrial surveys, such as last
week’s CIPS report on manufacturing. But it is worth remembering that the
surveys normally lead the hard data by a few months, so it would be no surprise
if output growth were to start to weaken over the next few months. And even if
output posts similar increases in August and September, industry won’t make as
strong a contribution to GDP growth in Q3 as it did in Q2. Overall, UK industry
is still doing pretty well, but it may not last too much longer. (picture)
Company / Equity News
And
finally UPDATE
– Text of announcement on Anglo Irish
The Minister for Finance today briefed his Government colleagues on the
strategic options for the future of Anglo Irish Bank. The Minister conveyed to
the Government the views of the Board of Anglo Irish Bank, the Central Bank,
the National Treasury Management Agency, the Department of Finance, the EU
Commission and his own assessment of the position.The Government decided that
Anglo Irish Bank will be split into a Funding Bank and an Asset Recovery Bank.
Anglo Irish Bank has not expanded its loan book since it was nationalised in
early 2009 and this will remain the case. It is intended that in due course the
Recovery Bank will be sold in whole or in part or that its assets will be run
off over a period of time. The guaranteed position of depositors will be
unchanged by the new arrangements and no action is required of them as a result
of today’s announcement. The depositors will become customers of the Funding
Bank which will be fully capitalized and continue as a regulated bank. In order
to restore the reputation of the Irish Financial System it is essential to
bring finality to the problem of Anglo Irish Bank – our most distressed
institution. The Government’s primary objective in dealing with Anglo Irish
Bank has been to minimise the cost of this distressed bank to the Irish
taxpayer. The Board of Anglo Irish Bank submitted its preferred option to the
Minister and to the European Commission at the end of May for consideration
under State Aid rules. The board’s plan envisaged splitting the bank into an asset
management company and a new good bank. The asset management company would have
managed out over time the bank’s lower quality assets remaining after the
transfers to NAMA. The new good bank would have managed the remaining share of
the loan book, retained the bank’s deposit funding and sought new lending
opportunities to grow the bank. The Minister acknowledges the good faith and
hard work of the board in producing a credible proposal for the future of the
bank. However, the Government has concluded that this plan in its current form
does not now provide the most viable and sustainable solution to ensure the
continued stability of the Irish banking system.
Resolution Proposal
In these circumstances, the Government has decided to opt for a variation of the
board’s restructuring proposal. The Government’s decision does not affect
existing guarantee arrangements. Under the restructuring plan, the Funding Bank
will be a Government-backed/guaranteed specialist deposit bank which will
contain the bank’s deposit book. It will be a stand-alone, regulated bank,
completely separated from Anglo’s loan assets and it will be owned directly by
the Minister for Finance. This bank will not engage in any lending, but will
provide a secure home for Anglo’s depositors and any new customers who wish to
deposit their funds with it. Depositors with the Funding Bank will be
completely insulated from the future performance of the rest of the current
Anglo Irish Bank loan book. The Asset Recovery Bank will also be a licensed regulated
bank. Its dedicated focus will be on the work-out over a period of time of the
assets not being transferred to NAMA in a manner which maximises the return to
the taxpayer.
Costs
The Government believes that it is essential to identify, with as much certainty
as possible, the final cost for the restructuring and resolution of the bank.
This will underpin international financial confidence in Ireland. Accordingly,
the Central Bank will determine the appropriate levels of capital needed in
both institutions. Its decision will be announced by October.
EU Commission
The Department of Finance has conducted intensive discussions with the EU
Commission in recent weeks about the future of Anglo Irish Bank. The Minister
for Finance met Commissioner Almunia last Monday to discuss the issue. A formal
detailed plan is being prepared for submission to the Commission for approval.
The Minister said: “Today’s decision by the Government will provide certainty
about the future of Anglo Irish Bank. Resolution of this, our most distressed
institution, is essential to the promotion of confidence and stability in our
financial system.”
8th September 2010
ENDS
Brian Meenan
Press Office
PH: 6045875
email: [email protected]
‘
This is what a depression is all about — an economy that 33 months after
a recession begins, with zero policy rates, a stuffed central bank sheet, and a
10% deficit-to-GDP ratio, is still in need of government help for its
sustenance.
Beige Book Picture Shows Growth Slowing, Stocks Down From Highs
Fidel Castro says Cuban model doesn't work (AP) Fidel Castro
told a visiting American journalist that Cuba's communist economic model
doesn't work.
Drudgereport: BLIAR BUSTED: Former UK PM's autobiography includes
dialogue from meeting with 'Queen' -- taken from fiction movie! Developing...
REV:
THE BURNING WILL PROCEED...
'Meant
to Be a Warning'...
Vatican:
'Outrageous'...
NYPD:
'Dangerous'...
Holder:
'Idiotic'...
Clinton:
'Disgraceful'...
Palin:
'Unnecessary provocation'...
FBI:
Retaliation 'Likely'...
Petraeus
Speaks Out on Quran Burning...
Endangers
Troops...
Pastor
Says Church Not Deterred...
Hartford
City Council meetings to begin with Muslim prayers...
2
SOLDIERS KILLED IN IRAQ, 9 WOUNDED
ADDICTED
TO STIMULUS: $50,000,000,000 MORE
Dems wary
of WH's huge new spending plan...
Obama
takes aim at Boehner... 'They talk about me like a dog'… [ If the shoe fits ... President
Obama calls African-Americans a ‘mongrel people’ President Obama waded into
the national race debate in an unlikely setting and with an unusual choice of
words: telling daytime talk show hosts that African-Americans are “sort of a
mongrel people.” ]
'They talk about me like a dog'...
FLASHBACK: President-Elect Obama: Mutt 'Like Me'...
'Even
liberal elites concede that Obama's presidency is crumbling'...
BARONE:
Sinking with Obama, Democrats plan political triage...
Muslims
Protest Plans to Burn Quran...
'Death
to America'...
Fears
rise as EU nations aim to raise borrowing...
Roubini:
More than 400 US Banks Will Fail...
'COMBAT
OVER': US TROOPS BATTLE IN BAGHDAD...
Why the Furious Bear Will Come Back - , On Tuesday September 7, 2010, 4:34
pm ‘The Top Ten List has become
a staple of David Letterman's Late Show. We don't quite have the space to
discuss ten reasons why the bear market isn't over (if we did, we'd probably
put you to sleep), but we'll take a crack at a Top Five List. Without further
ado, here it is:
#1: Forget About Earnings
Using
past earnings numbers to project future performance is like basing your
Roulette bet on the numbers that won previously… [chart]
#2: Budget Deficits
The
2011 U.S. deficit projection for 2011 was raised from $1.2 trillion to $1.4
trillion...
#3: Banks - Nothing but
Fluff
…Fundamentally,
however, nothing had changed… 'The house of cards was much bigger and started
to stretch beyond Wall Street…The government postponed the collapse of the
'whole deck' thus far. As of recent, however, some disturbing information has
surfaced. Bank of America admitted to hiding bad assets and Goldman's 82%
profit drop shows that the days of fat trading profits - such as seen in Q3 and
Q4 2009 and Q1 2010 - are over… It doesn't take an economist to know that
taking money from your savings account and transferring it to your checking
account can't be counted as income.
#4 Real Estate
In
late July, the market allegedly rallied because new home sales jumped 24% to
330,000 units in June. We feel the urge to put this number into perspective.
May sales were revised from an original 300,000 units to 267,000 units - this
is an all-time low. Bouncing off from the lowest level on record, new home
sales did indeed increase 24%. Is that reason to celebrate though? Chances are
the 330,000 will be revised lower in the future. Regardless, 330,000 homes sold
pales in comparison to the 1.4 million homes sold in 2005.The U.S. Census
Bureau reported that the number of vacant properties, including foreclosures,
residences for sale and vacation homes, reached 18.9 million. It shouldn't be
too long before those bleak fundamentals are reflected in the performance of
real estate ETFs like the iShares DJ US Real Estate ETF (NYSEArca: IYR
- News)
and SPDR DJ REIT ETF (NYSEArca: RWR - News).
..
#5: Consumer Confidence
During
periods of economic expanse the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index
has averaged a reading above 100. Recessions average a reading of 71. The
current confidence reading is at a dismal 50.4. The chart below paints this sad
picture. [chart] Consumer spending is said to make up about three quarters of
the economy. How can the economy recover without participation by the consumer?
It can't. That doesn't mean stocks can't rally temporarily. Such a disconnect
between the economy and Wall Street's dream world tends to be short-lived.
Sentiment Confusion
…
More importantly though, the optimism surrounding the April highs is indicative
of a major market top, a top that implies a decline much deeper than the 20%
we've seen thus far. This conclusion is certainly supported by the
above-mentioned Top Five list and many other indicators…
Economists Herald New Great
Depression The world is currently
experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression, according to a
prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others now forecasting
ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.) , and my position,
Nobel Prize Winner Krugman’s, and that of demographer Dent … This is a global depression. This is a
secular bear market in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated
bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically
manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that
the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical
wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior
crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until
justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted,
jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed … Krugman: It's All Downhill From
Here Cullen Roche Love him or hate him
Paul Krugman has been awfully right with regards to the macro picture in the
last few years. He’s one of the rare economists who had the foresight to see
the housing bubble and the likelihood of economic downturn that would result
from it. Krugman recently caused a stir when he said the US economy was headed
for the third depression. He isn’t back down from that outlook:
I’ve had a couple of conversations
lately with people who follow politics and public affairs, but aren’t that
close to the economic discussion — and I’ve discovered that there are two
comforting delusions still out there.
Delusion #1 is that we’re on the road
to recovery, just more slowly than we’d like; to be fair, the White House keeps
saying this.
But it’s not at all true. GDP is
growing below potential; employment, even if you focus just on private
employment, is growing more slowly than the working-age population. If you ask
how long it will take us to return to, say, 5 percent unemployment on the
current track, the answer is forever.
Delusion #2 is the belief that the
stimulus may yet do the trick, because there are still substantial funds
unspent. I tried to deal with this last year.
The level of GDP depends not on total funds spent, but on the rate at which
funds are being spent, which has already peaked; GDP growth on the rate of
change in the rate at which funds are being spent, which peaked last year. It’s
all downhill from here.
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a
Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012). ]
Accumulating
Incongruities [ Bottom line in this article is that the author (and
me) doesn’t buy the labor /
unemployment stats which have been skewed / guesstimated to the up side which
probably is no surprise given the abounding desperation and proximity to the
elections ]
Household
Net Worth Plunges By Most Since Q4 2008, As Government Borrowing Surges In
other words, the net wealth of the US household continues to track the
performance of the stock market tick for tick. And one wonders why the Fed, per
Alan Greenspan’s admission, is only focused on ramping stocks up to all time
highs.
This
is only half of the story though. Despite all these methodological weaknesses I
was curious enough to look for the list of states with the worst and best
poverty rates. I skimmed through their 88 page report but I could not find a
single table breaking down their flawed results by state. This must be top
secret information, I said to myself.
RT’s
Anastasia Churkina re-visits Tent City – a homeless camp tucked away in the
woods of New Jersey, where over 40 people have been forced to live, with
nowhere else to go.
Leading Economic Indicators Continue to Suggest Return to
Contraction Is Likely
U.S.
Economy "Gradually Deteriorating," Levy Says: Recession Likely in
2011
Ten Reasons This Rally Is Ultimately Toast
Wachtel ‘Here are 10 reasons why risk assets (stocks, riskier forex pairs,
industrial commodities) have a very high probability of a pullback very soon.
Technical Indicators: High Risk Of Downturn
The S&P
500 is the best single representative of overall risk appetite. It is telling
us that a pullback is coming very soon. (chart)
1. Coming Bounce Off Of Upper Bollinger Band (standard 2, 20 default settings):
Once the index starts to pull back from its upper Bollinger
band, it usually pulls back to at least its 50 day SMA, often lower. Since the
end of the most recent rally in late April, this rule has worked flawlessly in
both mid-June and mid-August. The index is now once again at its upper
Bollinger Band.
Up Against Multiple Reinforcing Layers Of Strong Resistance
Around 1120.
2. Upper Bollinger Band (noted above).
3. 200 day SMA (purple line).
4. 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the February 2010 low (which
has held up well as support, only violated for a few sessions in July and
August).
5. Neckline (red horizontal line around 1125) of the big bearish
Head-And-Shoulders pattern dating all the way back to the beginning of 2010.
Left shoulder in January, head in April, and right shoulder in June.
6. This same resistance at 1125 is reinforced by another bearish
chart pattern- a bearish double top (that may soon become a triple top if the
above indicators prove correct).
7. Recent Rally On Low Volume: The rally that began in late
August has been on very low volume, which suggests lack of conviction and thus
less durability.
Fundamentals Don’t Support A Rally
8. We are heading into the second half of the month, which is
lighter on significant news data than would be needed to justify a push past
the above strong resistance layers
In addition, there is the overwhelmingly bearish fundamental
backdrop:
9. US economic slowdown in every meaningful category: housing
prices (where the bear market began), jobs, spending, etc. Even manufacturing,
until recently a rare bright spot, has been slowing since the prior Philly Fed
report.
10. The ongoing and utterly unsolved EU sovereign debt/banking
crisis, with its now periodic eruptions. While we have no major eruptions
reported recently, PIIGS sovereign and bank yields and CDS rates remain at
May’s crisis levels, a clear indication that markets are very nervous and ready
to sell off, as they have over the past weeks on news of Ireland’s latest bank
bailout and a Wall Street Journal article on how the EU bank stress tests
understated PIIGS bond exposure.
As noted in previous posts, support and resistance must be
viewed as zones rather than precise points. The lack of news noted above could
allow for continued quiet drift upward to 1140 or even a bit more.
However, that leaves little room to profit for anyone except
very short term traders. Others should be planning short trades as the S&P
and other risk assets head back down to test support. For the S&P 500 that
would be around 1040 in the near term.
DISCLOSURE & DISCLAIMER: NO POSITIONS, THE ABOVE IS FOR
INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND NOT TO BE CONSTRUED AS SPECIFIC TRADING ADVICE.
RESPONSIBILITY FOR TRADE DECISIONS IS SOLELY WITH THE READER.’
Philadelphia
Manufacturing Index Falls
Yen hits 15-year high
vs dollar Reuters | The dollar
hit a 15-year low against the yen on Tuesday, testing Japanese authorities’
resolve to stem the yen’s climb after Prime Minister Naoto Kan won a party
leadership vote.
Regional
Manufacturing Still Deteriorating
Despite Range Trading - Prominent Sell Signals Still
Alive On Thursday September 16, 2010, 12:35 pm EDT About a month ago, news about the ominous
Hindenburg Omen, terrible September/October and other prominent sell signals
were the big buzz around Wall Street. Has the recent rally and range bound
trading neutralized or even eliminated the bearish undercurrents? A look at
current sentiment would make you think so. Sentiment surveys show that
bullishness has soared and optimists are back in control (see chart below).But
are the optimists generally right? No. In fact, unfounded optimism is one of
the biggest investment traps and most effective bear market tricks. On April
16, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned that: 'The message conveyed by
the composite bullishness is unmistakably bearish. Most bulls have no clue why
they are bullish except for the fact that they feel the need to play the
momentum game. Sounds like 2000 and 2007 all over again.' When it comes to
investing, emotions tend to get in the way of making money. It takes an
opportunistic, yet realistic approach to profit in this market.
Parallels Between 2000, 2007, and Today
From a purely analytical point of view, the April ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter examined the 2000 and 2007 market tops and compared them with the
2010 price action, at a time when optimism was soaring sky-high. The parallels
between the 2000, 2007 and forming 2010 tops were striking, that's why the
newsletter concluded that: 'A comparison between the 2000 and 2007 double tops
to the current constellations shows that the market may roll over at any time.'
Similar to the January/April 2000 and July/October 2007 double tops, the April
2010 highs were preceded by a lower January top. But the parallels didn't stop
there.
Major Tops Followed by Decoy Rallies
Following the initial 2007 decline, the April, May 2008 rally rekindled new
hope and pushed the major indexes a la Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI), S&P (SNP:
^GSPC), and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) briefly above their 200-day moving average
(MA). Following the initial April 2010 decline, the July/August rally also
pushed the S&P briefly above the 200-day MA. Both, in 2008 and 2010,
the indexes were rebuffed by the 200-day MA. The failure to stay above the
200-day MA in May 2008 was followed by a 53.75% decline in the S&P 500.
Former performance leaders like the Financial Select Sector SPDRs (NYSEArca: XLF - News) and KBW Bank ETF (NYSEArca: KBE - News) tumbled 79%, the Technology
Sector SPDRs (NYSEArca: XLK - News) dropped 49%. Even conservative
sectors such as utilities (NYSEArca: XLU - News) and healthcare (NYSEArca: XLV - News) dropped another 35 - 45%. Like a
free diver who comes up for air, the market tends to rally to keep investors
engaged before the next leg down. The chart below - which plots bullish
advisor sentiment against the price of the S&P 500 from June 2007 -
September 2010, illustrates the market's cruel habit of spreading hope just
before the hammer drops. [chart]
It Happened Before
Since we are talking about prior market tops, we can't help but mention the
mother of all sucker rallies, which occurred in 1929/1930. Following the
initial 1929 meltdown, the 1930 rally recouped 50% of the previously lost
points. Ironically, the 1930 rally ended on April 16. The 2010 counter trend
rally ran its course on April 26. In addition to a near identical termination
date, the two rallies rekindled the same kind of bullish sentiment. Below are a
few headlines and statement from April 1930. Keep in mind that the Dow went on
to decline more than 80% thereafter. 'For the immediate future, the outlook is
bright' - Irving Fisher, Ph. D. in Economics 'I see nothing in the present
situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism.' - Andrew W. Mellon,
U. S. Secretary of the Treasury 'The depression is over' - Herbert Hoover,
President If you escaped the market in
time, you might be able to read the following April 2010 headlines with a fair
shot of humor and realize the irony: 'As job worries ease, will anything stop
the stock market?' – CNBC 'Dow 11,000 is only the beginning' - Wall Street
Journal 'Check the real estate: It is time to delve in' - Wall Street Journal
It Happened Recently
It's easy to dismiss any parallels to the Great Depression simply because it
happened 80 years ago. However, an 80% drop is nothing unusual and has been
seen recently. The Nasdaq (Nasdaq: QQQQ - News) peaked in 2000 and tumbled 78.4%
within less than two years. Much evidence suggests that the Nasdaq's woes are
not yet over with more losses and lower lows on the horizon. Oil prices tumbled
77% after topping at $147.3 a barrel in 2008. Both, the Nasdaq and oil prices
topped at a time when higher prices were a foregone conclusion. With regards to
oil, the expectation for higher fuel prices moved all major car manufacturers
to advertise and build low MPG cars. As soon as their commercials hit TVs,
radios, and newspapers across the country, oil and fuel prices started to drop
like a rock. Some still dismiss those declines as sector bubbles, not broad
market declines.
It Happened to an Entire Country
The Nikkei is Japan's version of the S&P 500 and covers hundreds of stocks.
In 1989, the Nikkei topped at 38,946. Since then, it has dropped over 80% to
below 8,000 (see chart below, published in the April 2010 ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter). [chart] Throughout this 20-year decline, the Nikkei had eleven
rallies of 20% or more and four that were 50% or more. In total, the Nikkei
rallied well over 250,000 rally points, yet it remains 76% below its 1989 peak.
The decline of Japan's stock market (NYSEArca: EWJ - News) and economy happened amidst a
global bull market. Imagine what can happen to the U.S. stock market during a
global recession spurred by European (NYSEArca: FEZ - News) debt woes and global stock market
(NYSEArca: EFA - News) weakness. It's human nature to
rationalize and invent reasons why something can't happen. It's the stock
market's nature to prove investors wrong. Based on parallels that aren't
farfetched by any means, a follow through of the post 2007 U.S. equity meltdown
is more than just a possibility.
Fundamentals, Technicals, Valuations, and History in Agreement
Investing is about putting the odds in your favor. There is no such thing as a
100% certain profit opportunity. However, there are high probability profit
opportunities where the odds of having a winning trade are high and the potential
reward is much higher than the potential risk. Such high probability profit
opportunities occur when as many indicators as possible point in the same
direction. Right now, there is a near unanimous consent between fundamental and
technical indicators, along with valuations and historic patterns. The latest ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter includes a detailed analysis of various
market forecasting tools, along with a short, mid, and long-term outlook for
the U.S. stock market and a target range for the ultimate market bottom. Even
though the economic outlook is dim, realistic investors can feel optimistic
about the opportunities in the months and years ahead. ,
Defacto Bankrupt, Meaningfully Lawless, War Criminal Nation
america, the leader of nations … in crime:
Though having but 5% of the world’s population, america can
boast 76% of the world’s serial killers, followed by Europe with England/UK
then Germany leading the way for the eu [excerpt, 6 minute video, Serial
Killers: Real Life Hannibal Lechters http://www.albertpeia.com/realifeamericaserialkillers.mpg (as is consistent with crime generally,
see infra)]. Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive
(defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of
the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern
emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed
employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in
this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense
( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
) ]:
Though having but 5% of the world’s population, america can
boast 76% of the world’s serial killers, followed by Europe with England/UK
then Germany leading the way for the eu [excerpt, 6 minute video, Serial
Killers: Real Life Hannibal Lechters http://www.albertpeia.com/realifeamericaserialkillers.mpg (as is consistent with crime generally,
see infra)]. Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive
(defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of
the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern
emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed
employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in
this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense
( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
) ]:
Rank |
|||
# 1
|
11,877,218 |
|
|
# 2
|
6,523,706 |
|
|
# 3
|
6,507,394 |
|
Underestimating
the Risks of the Stock Market [
Keep in mind, this is an election year and as good as it gets, as bad as it is
beyond the spun / fake market-frothing
data ] Babak ‘If you spend
enough time trading and studying the markets you realize viscerally that
markets tend to fall and fall hard much more than they rise. We got a very good
example of this in the 2008 bear market where the S&P 500 index gave back
in about 18 months all the gains that had taken it almost 5 years to accumulate
(March 2003 to October 2007). The theoretical framework that many people use
and that which is still taught in finance classes across the globe continues to
assume that returns fall into a normal distribution. While it is useful to know
that modern portfolio theory and EMH are flimsy theories with no real world
applications, it doesn’t help us to recalibrate our instruments to just how
asymmetrical stock returns really are. To get at that answer, the research team
at Welton Investments compared the actual distribution of returns from the
S&P 500 index over the past 50 years with the expected risk based on a
Monte Carlo simulation. The results are shown in the chart below: [ chart Source:
Tail Risk ] This
study shows that investors continuously and severely underestimated negative
returns. In fact, going by rolling quarterly losses of 20% or more, investors
experienced 5.3 times more of these “fat tail” events than that accounted for
by the expectations based on a normal distribution. That difference is huge!
Knowing this historical reality, investors have two choices: either don’t play
the game (get out of stocks) or play but have a safety net handy for the
inevitable fall …’
Empire
State Manufacturing Falls in September
Technical Resistance: Here We Go Again Hui ‘…The odds seem to
favor another downleg for a couple of reasons.
First of all, investor sentiment has gotten incredibly bullish
in the space of a couple of weeks, which is contrarian bearish.
More important for the intermediate term, the market is facing a number of
macro headwinds of economic weakness starting in 4Q. John Hussman noted in his
latest weekly comment [emphasis added]: As I've noted frequently
in recent commentaries, the typical lag between deterioration in say, the ECRI
Weekly Leading Index and the ISM Purchasing Managers Index is about 13 weeks,
and sometimes longer. The typical lag with respect to new claims for
unemployment is about 23-26 weeks (which puts the likely window of
deterioration at about the October - November time frame), and the
typical lag with respect to the payroll unemployment report is, not
surprisingly, about 4 weeks beyond that.
Uber-bear Albert Edwards put it more bluntly:The
current situation reminds me of mid 2007. Investors then were content to stick
their heads into very deep sand and ignore the fact that The Great Unwind had
clearly begun. But in August and September 2007, even though the wheels were
clearly falling off the global economy, the S&P still managed to rally 15%!
The recent reaction to data suggests the market is in a similar deluded state
of mind. Yet again, equity investors refuse to accept they are now locked in a
Vulcan death grip and are about to fall unconscious…’
The Dow Is Overbought on Its Daily Chart
To
Dip or Double-Dip? Janjigian There
has been a lot of talk lately about whether or not we will have a double-dip
recession. I have long been in the camp that says a double-dip is a real
possibility. I believe the probability for a second recession is higher now
than it was last March. But how does one actually assign a number to this
probability? The economists Nouriel Roubini and Martin Feldstein are perhaps
the most bearish on the economy. They say the chances of a second recession are
about one in three. This means they believe that if the economy were to
experience the same exact conditions it is experiencing now hundreds of times,
one-third of those times would result in a recession. Another way to look at is
that the probability that we will not have a second recession is about 67%. In
other words, even the most bearish economists believe there is a much better
chance that we will avoid a second recession than there is that we will
actually have one … [ Hey, come on! If they only were the most bearish on the
economy … Economists Herald New Great
Depression The world is currently
experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression, according to a
prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others now forecasting
ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.) , and my position and that of demographer Dent (This is a global depression. This is a
secular bear market in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated
bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically
manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that
the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical
wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior
crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until
justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted,
jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. Krugman: It's All Downhill From
Here Cullen Roche Love him or hate him
Paul Krugman has been awfully right with regards to the macro picture in the
last few years. He’s one of the rare economists who had the foresight to see
the housing bubble and the likelihood of economic downturn that would result
from it. Krugman recently caused a stir when he said the US economy was headed
for the third depression. He isn’t back down from that outlook:
I’ve had a couple of conversations
lately with people who follow politics and public affairs, but aren’t that
close to the economic discussion — and I’ve discovered that there are two
comforting delusions still out there.
Delusion #1 is that we’re on the road
to recovery, just more slowly than we’d like; to be fair, the White House keeps
saying this.
But it’s not at all true. GDP is
growing below potential; employment, even if you focus just on private
employment, is growing more slowly than the working-age population. If you ask
how long it will take us to return to, say, 5 percent unemployment on the
current track, the answer is forever.
Delusion #2 is the belief that the
stimulus may yet do the trick, because there are still substantial funds
unspent. I tried to deal with this last year.
The level of GDP depends not on total funds spent, but on the rate at which
funds are being spent, which has already peaked; GDP growth on the rate of
change in the rate at which funds are being spent, which peaked last year. It’s
all downhill from here.
Buried Alive - Prominent Sell Signals , On Tuesday
September 14, 2010 'A pessimist sees the difficulty in every
opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.' - Winston
Churchill
’Does that mean that an optimist is always right? No. In fact, unfounded
optimism is one of the biggest investment traps and most effective bear market
tricks. On April 16, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned that: 'The
message conveyed by the composite bullishness is unmistakably bearish. Most
bulls have no clue why they are bullish except for the fact that they feel the
need to play the momentum game. Sounds like 2000 and 2007 all over again.' When
it comes to investing, emotions tend to get in the way of making money. It
takes an opportunistic, yet realistic approach to profit in this market.
Parallels Between 2000, 2007, and Today
From a purely analytical point of view, the April ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter examined the 2000 and 2007 market tops and compared them with the
2010 price action, at a time when optimism was soaring sky-high. The parallels
between the 2000, 2007 and forming 2010 tops were striking, that's why the
newsletter concluded that: 'A comparison between the 2000 and 2007 double tops
to the current constellations shows that the market may roll over at any time.'
Similar to the January/April 2000 and July/October 2007 double tops, the April
2010 highs were preceded by a lower January top. But the parallels didn't stop
there.
Major Tops Followed by Decoy Rallies
Following the initial 2007 decline, the April, May 2008 rally rekindled new
hope and pushed the major indexes a la Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI), S&P (SNP:
^GSPC), and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) briefly above their 200-day moving average
(MA). Following the initial April 2010 decline, the July/August rally also
pushed the S&P briefly above the 200-day MA. Both, in 2008 and 2010,
the indexes were rebuffed by the 200-day MA. The failure to stay above the
200-day MA in May 2008 was followed by a 53.75% decline in the S&P 500.
Former performance leaders like the Financial Select Sector SPDRs (NYSEArca: XLF
- News)
and KBW Bank ETF (NYSEArca: KBE - News)
tumbled 79%, the Technology Sector SPDRs (NYSEArca: XLK
- News)
dropped 49%. Even conservative sectors such as utilities (NYSEArca: XLU
- News)
and healthcare (NYSEArca: XLV - News)
dropped another 35 - 45%. Like a free diver who comes up for air, the market
tends to rally to keep investors engaged before the next leg down. The
chart below - which plots bullish advisor sentiment against the price of the
S&P 500 from June 2007 - September 2010, illustrates the market's cruel
habit of spreading hope just before the hammer drops. [chart]
It Happened Before
Since we are talking about prior market tops, we can't help but mention the
mother of all sucker rallies, which occurred in 1929/1930. Following the
initial 1929 meltdown, the 1930 rally recouped 50% of the previously lost
points. Ironically, the 1930 rally ended on April 16. The 2010 counter trend
rally ran its course on April 26. In addition to a near identical termination
date, the two rallies rekindled the same kind of bullish sentiment. Below are a
few headlines and statement from April 1930. Keep in mind that the Dow went on
to decline more than 80% thereafter. 'For the immediate future, the outlook is
bright' - Irving Fisher, Ph. D. in Economics 'I see nothing in the present
situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism.' - Andrew W. Mellon,
U. S. Secretary of the Treasury 'The depression is over' - Herbert Hoover,
President If you escaped the market in time, you might be able to read the
following April 2010 headlines with a fair shot of humor and realize the irony:
'As job worries ease, will anything stop the stock market?' – CNBC 'Dow 11,000
is only the beginning' - Wall Street Journal 'Check the real estate: It is time
to delve in' - Wall Street Journal
It Happened Recently
It's easy to dismiss any parallels to the Great Depression simply because it
happened 80 years ago. However, an 80% drop is nothing unusual and has been
seen recently. The Nasdaq (Nasdaq: QQQQ
- News)
peaked in 2000 and tumbled 78.4% within less than two years. Much evidence
suggests that the Nasdaq's woes are not yet over with more losses and lower
lows on the horizon. Oil prices tumbled 77% after topping at $147.3 a barrel in
2008. Both, the Nasdaq and oil prices topped at a time when higher prices were
a foregone conclusion. With regards to oil, the expectation for higher fuel
prices moved all major car manufacturers to advertise and build low MPG cars.
As soon as their commercials hit TVs, radios, and newspapers across the
country, oil and fuel prices started to drop like a rock. Some still dismiss
those declines as sector bubbles, not broad market declines.
It Happened to an Entire Country
The Nikkei is Japan's version of the S&P 500 and covers hundreds of stocks.
In 1989, the Nikkei topped at 38,946. Since then, it has dropped over 80% to
below 8,000 (see chart below, published in the April 2010 ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter). [chart] Throughout this 20-year decline, the Nikkei had eleven
rallies of 20% or more and four that were 50% or more. In total, the Nikkei
rallied well over 250,000 rally points, yet it remains 76% below its 1989 peak.
The decline of Japan's stock market (NYSEArca: EWJ
- News)
and economy happened amidst a global bull market. Imagine what can happen to
the U.S. stock market during a global recession spurred by European (NYSEArca: FEZ
- News)
debt woes and global stock market (NYSEArca: EFA
- News)
weakness. It's human nature to rationalize and invent reasons why something
can't happen. It's the stock market's nature to prove investors wrong. Based on
parallels that aren't farfetched by any means, a follow through of the post
2007 U.S. equity meltdown is more than just a possibility.
Fundamentals, Technicals, Valuations, and History in Agreement
Investing is about putting the odds in your favor. There is no such thing as a
100% certain profit opportunity. However, there are high probability profit
opportunities where the odds of having a winning trade are high and the
potential reward is much higher than the potential risk. Such high probability
profit opportunities occur when as many indicators as possible point in the
same direction. Right now, there is a near unanimous consent between
fundamental and technical indicators, along with valuations and historic
patterns. The latest ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
includes a detailed analysis of various market forecasting tools, along with a
short, mid, and long-term outlook for the U.S. stock market and a target range
for the ultimate market bottom. Even though the economic outlook is dim,
realistic investors can feel optimistic about the opportunities in the months
and years ahead.
Is the Stock Market Safe? [ This time the consensus is correct, in a
‘fish in a barrel’ kind of way! ]‘In a
word, no. That’s the general consensus found in a survey of individual
investors done by AP and CNBC this week. As if dealing with two major bear
markets since the turn of the century wasn’t enough, all the talk about high
frequency trading and the May 6th "Flash Crash" seems to have pushed
individual investors over the edge in terms of their comfort level with the
stock market. In fact, according to an AP/CNBC poll, 55% of those surveyed
believe the stock market is fair only to some investors. The bottom line of
this particular survey is that investors are now wary about the idea of using
the stock market as a way to invest for retirement. Instead, the survey found
that the vast majority of individual investors continue to pump unprecedented
amounts of money into what many believe is the most overvalued asset class on
the planet – government bonds. One result of the 10-plus year secular bear
market in stocks is the gradual erosion of the public’s interest and confidence
in stocks as an investment. Of course this HAS happened before. Anyone recall
the 1982 cover of Time magazine with the title “The Death of Equities?”
Although the cyclical bull market that began in March 2009 remains intact, the
public has been pulling money out of the market on a monthly basis. Since
January 2008, the Investment Company Institute reports that a total of $244
billion has been withdrawn from US equity funds. Yet at the same time, a total
of more than $589 billion has poured into US bond mutual funds, which is an
unparalleled amount. It appears that the "Flash Crash" may have been
the straw that broke the camel’s back. For example, in the 11 weeks prior to
May 6th the public pumped a strong $26.6 billion into equity mutual funds. This
is hardly surprising since during that time the market was rising steadily and
had gained more than 70% in the past 12 months. However, in the 16 weeks since
the "Flash Crash," investors have been running scared. In fact,
Investment Company Institute reports that the public has pulled money out of US
equity funds each and every week since, with cumulative withdrawals now
totaling $55.9 billion. Thus, it would appear that the market’s recent
volatility has caused the investing public to lose confidence in the market.
The AP/CNBC poll found that 61% of those surveyed felt the volatility has made
them less confident about buying and selling stocks. There is also a widespread
perception is that the market is rigged or unfair to the little guy. Nearly 90%
of the survey respondents whose portfolios are less than $50,000 said the
market is unfair to small investors. In addition, the public doesn’t seem to
have much faith in the administration to fix the situation in the market. The
poll found that just 8% expressed strong confidence in federal regulators while
50% expressed little-to-no confidence in those tasked with overseeing the
markets. Does this mean it is time to give up on the stock market as an
investment vehicle? We would respond with a resounding “no!” The trick is to
understand that the game has changed. After an 18-year bull market, the tide
has turned. As such, investors actually have to do something besides putting
money into any old mutual fund and closing their eyes. Disclosure: No
positions’ [Economists
Herald New Great Depression The world is
currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression,
according to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others
now forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.) ,
and my position and that of demographer
Dent (This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market
in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in
a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national
decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the
wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and
disgorgement imposed. Krugman:
It's All Downhill From Here Cullen Roche Love
him or hate him Paul Krugman has been awfully right with regards to the macro
picture in the last few years. He’s one of the rare economists who had the
foresight to see the housing bubble and the likelihood of economic downturn
that would result from it. Krugman recently caused a stir when he said the US
economy was headed for the third depression. He isn’t back down from that outlook:
I’ve had a couple of conversations
lately with people who follow politics and public affairs, but aren’t that
close to the economic discussion — and I’ve discovered that there are two
comforting delusions still out there.
Delusion #1 is that we’re on the road
to recovery, just more slowly than we’d like; to be fair, the White House keeps
saying this.
But it’s not at all true. GDP is
growing below potential; employment, even if you focus just on private
employment, is growing more slowly than the working-age population. If you ask
how long it will take us to return to, say, 5 percent unemployment on the
current track, the answer is forever.
Delusion #2 is the belief that the
stimulus may yet do the trick, because there are still substantial funds
unspent. I tried to deal with this last year. The level of GDP depends not on
total funds spent, but on the rate at which funds are being spent, which has
already peaked; GDP growth on the rate of change in the rate at which funds are
being spent, which peaked last year. It’s all downhill from here.
Harry
Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012). ]
Handcuffs
For Wall Street, Not Happy Talk Zach Carter | The fraud allegations that have emerged over the past year are not
restricted to a few bad apples at shady companies — they involve some of the
largest players in global finance.
Hatzius:
The Risks Are Still to the Downside
Drudgereport: 'Tea party' favorites lead in
NH, Delaware...
Establishment Freaks...
Upsets...
RESULTS...
WIRE...
Doomsday warnings of US
apocalypse gain ground...
US poverty on track
to post record gain under Obama...
Last minute aid helps city
dodge default...
REPUBLICAN ACCUSES WHITE
HOUSE OF 'CLASS WARFARE'...
Paul says GOP shares blame
for deficits...
Kerry flip-flops on tax
cuts...
Muslims protest Quran-burning
plan...
Florida pastor calls it
off...
Christians rip pages from
Muslim holy book in front of White House...
Man ignites Quran near Ground
Zero...
VIDEO...
Mosque opponents, supporters
face off in downtown NYC...
OBAMA: 'We are not
and never will be at war with Islam'...
Finance
groups: Long transition to ease new bank rules (Washington Post) [ Basel’s
all the rage … Riiiiight!
Bonkers for Basel, the thing in rally vogue this day … but, not Basil as in Basil Rathbone of super
sleuth Sherlock Holmes film fame who’d make short shrift of this fraudulent
wall street contagion that has swept over Europe in a manner to rightfully earn
the moniker ‘eventual black Friday plague’ … and then there’s the ‘higher oil
price’ part of the suckers’ rally. We can certainly expect Rosanne Rosanna
Danna formerly of SNL fame, as night follows the day, to chime in with a
reminder as her mama always used to say, ‘it’s always something’ … but
unfortunately, that somethin’ is not reality.
YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]:
‘Broad-based buying on the back of Basel III boosted stocks to their fourth
straight gain, or seventh advance in eight sessions. Still, participation
remained unimpressive ... ‘ AP Business
Highlights ‘… Banks
get years to adjust to new global rules
BASEL, Switzerland (AP) -- Bankers and analysts said new global rules
could mean less money available to lend to businesses and consumers, but
praised a decision to leave plenty of time -- until 2019 -- before the
financial stability requirements come into full force ...’ ]Critics
caution, however, that the requirements adopted by the Basel Committee on
Banking Supervision fall short of what's needed to prevent another financial
crisis.
Cuba
to cut 500,000 workers, reform salaries (Washington Post) [ Boy, when
Castro said communism wasn’t working for them anymore, he wasn’t kidding! No
gloating for defacto bankrupt, pervasively corrupt america which is a far cry
from capitalism and but a whisper from collapse itself.]
Banks
miss TARP payments (Washington Post) [ Sounds like a plan! … Bank Failure Friday Continues at Seeking
Alpha ‘…Bank Failure Friday continues with the total number of failures
for 2010 now up to 119 on the way to 150 to 200, as the third quarter total
ended September 10th at 33. During “The Great Credit Crunch” the FDIC only
closed 25 banks during all of 2008. In 2009 the FDIC picked up the pace with
140 bank failures with a peak of 50 in the third quarter of 2009. So far in
2010 the FDIC closed 41 banks in the first quarter, another 45 in the second
quarter, and so far 33 for the third quarter. With 119 bank failures so far in
2010 the total for “The Great Credit Crunch” is up to 284 continuing its path
to my predicted 500 to 800 by the end of 2012 into 2013 … (see rest of article
infra)]
Doomsday
warnings of US apocalypse gain ground AFP | Economists peddling dire warnings that the world’s
number one economy is on the brink of collapse.
A subtler tack to fight Afghan corruption?
(Washington
Post) [ How about a not so subtler tack
to fight corruption starting right here in the u.s. of a. where corruption and
crime are pervasive and in fact, at the root of the Afghanistan problems, from
american reinvigorated heroin trade to bribery attendant thereto to killing
civilians, etc.. Defacto Bankrupt, Meaningfully Lawless,
War Criminal Nation america, the leader of nations … in crime:
Though having but 5% of the world’s population, america can
boast 76% of the world’s serial killers, followed by Europe with England/UK
then Germany leading the way for the eu [excerpt, 6 minute video, Serial
Killers: Real Life Hannibal Lechters http://www.albertpeia.com/realifeamericaserialkillers.mpg (as is consistent with crime generally,
see infra)]. Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive
(defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of
the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern
emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed
employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in
this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense
( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
) ]:
Rank |
|||
# 1
|
11,877,218 |
|
|
# 2
|
6,523,706 |
|
|
# 3
|
6,507,394 |
|
… ]
Riiiiight!
Bonkers in Basel are the thing in rally vogue this day … but, not Basil as in Basil Rathbone of super
sleuth Sherlock Holmes fame who’d make short shrift of this fraudulent wall
street contagion that has swept over Europe in a manner to rightfully earn the moniker
‘eventual black Friday plague’ … and then there’s the ‘higher oil price’ part
of the suckers’ rally. We can certainly expect Rosanne Rosanna Danna formerly
of SNL fame, as night follows the day, to chime in with a reminder as her mama
always used to say, ‘it’s always something’ … but unfortunately, that somethin’
is not reality. YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]:
‘Broad-based buying on the back of Basel III boosted stocks to their fourth
straight gain, or seventh advance in eight sessions. Still, participation
remained unimpressive ... ‘ AP Business
Highlights ‘… Banks get years to adjust to new global rules BASEL, Switzerland (AP) -- Bankers and
analysts said new global rules could mean less money available to lend to
businesses and consumers, but praised a decision to leave plenty of time --
until 2019 -- before the financial stability requirements come into full force
...’
Bank Failure Friday Continues at Seeking
Alpha ‘…Bank Failure Friday continues with the total number of
failures for 2010 now up to 119 on the way to 150 to 200, as the third quarter
total ended September 10th at 33. During “The Great Credit Crunch” the FDIC
only closed 25 banks during all of 2008. In 2009 the FDIC picked up the pace
with 140 bank failures with a peak of 50 in the third quarter of 2009. So far
in 2010 the FDIC closed 41 banks in the first quarter, another 45 in the second
quarter, and so far 33 for the third quarter. With 119 bank failures so far in
2010 the total for “The Great Credit Crunch” is up to 284 continuing its path
to my predicted 500 to 800 by the end of 2012 into 2013.
The
failed bank was publicly-traded Horizon Bank (HZNB.OB), which had huge
overexposures to C&D and CRE loans with risk ratios of 358% and 1769%
versus the ignored regulatory guidelines of 100% and 300% of risk-based
capital. The commitment pipeline of commercial real estate loans was 99% funded
as “extend and pretend” caused this failure. The consolidator bank has been
used before by the FDIC; Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK) which has a HOLD rating according to
ValuEngine.
Here
are some statistics from the FDIC for the Second Quarter 2010: There were 45
bank failures in the second quarter, and we ended the quarter with the number
of FDIC-insured financial institutions declining to 7,893, of which 1306 are
publicly-traded.
·
1172 of all community banks (14.8%) are overexposed to Construction &
Development Loans.
·
1432 or 18.1% are overexposed to Nonfarm / Nonresidential real estate loans.
·
2504 or 31.7% are thus overexposed to Commercial Real Estate loans.
·
1317 or 16.7% have a real estate loan pipeline that’s 100% funded.
·
2622 or 33.2% have a pipeline that’s between 80% and 100% funded.
·
3939 of 49.9% of all banks have a pipeline that’s 80% or more funded. So
half the community banks in America remain overleveraged to Commercial Real
Estate and the possible losses remain about $1.5 trillion.
Publicly-Traded
Banks:
·
293 of the 1306 publicly-traded banks are overexposed to C&D loans
·
394 are overexposed to Nonfarm / Nonresidential real estate loans.
·
687 or 52.6% of the publicly-traded banks are thus overexposed to Commercial
Real Estate loans. We publish this list as the ValuEngine List of Problem
Banks.
·
234 publicly-traded banks have a real estate loan portfolio that’s 100% funded.
·
463 have a real estate loan portfolio between 80% and 100% funded.
·
697 thus have significant real estate loan pipeline stress.
Problem
Banks at the end of the Second Quarter versus the First Quarter:
·
Given
the waves of bank failures the total assets among the 686 Publicly-Traded
Problem Banks declined to $135.9 billion from $164.7 billion in the first
quarter. C&D loans declined to $12.7 billion from $16.4 billion with a CRE
loan pipeline steady at 78.1% versus 78.0%.
·
Assets
among the 91 Deadbeat Banks, (those in arrears on making TARP dividend
payments), totals $99.9 billion with C&D loans at $10.9 billion and a CRE
pipeline of 80.9%.
·
Assets
among failed publicly-traded banks increased to $122.5 billion from $116.7
billion in the first quarter. C&D loans increased to $22.3 billion from
$21.5 billion. The CRE loan pipeline increased a tick to 90.4% from 90.3%.
Assets among banks with a CRE pipeline
of 80% or more funded increased to $3.84 trillion including $121.3 billion in
C&D loans. The average pipeline for 3939 banks is 92.0%. Among this list
are four big banks that will likely see waves of write-offs in upcoming
quarters.
·
JP
Morgan Chase (JPM)
with $1.72 trillion in assets has a pipeline of 80%.
·
SunTrust
Banks (STI) has $160.5 billion in assets with an 83%
pipeline.
·
BB&T
Corp (BBT) has $149.2 billion in assets with an 84%
pipeline.
·
Fifth
Third Bank (FITB) has
100.0 billion in assets with an 84% pipeline.
Disclosure: No positions’
U.S. Trade Deficit Still Growing
Defacto Bankrupt, Meaningfully Lawless, War Criminal Nation america,
the leader of nations … in crime:
Though having but 5% of the world’s population, america can
boast 76% of the world’s serial killers, followed by Europe with England/UK
then Germany leading the way for the eu [excerpt, 6 minute video, Serial
Killers: Real Life Hannibal Lechters http://www.albertpeia.com/realifeamericaserialkillers.mpg (as is consistent with crime generally,
see infra)]. Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive
(defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of
the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern
emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed
employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in
this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense
( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
) ]:
Rank |
|||
# 1
|
11,877,218 |
|
|
# 2
|
6,523,706 |
|
|
# 3
|
6,507,394 |
|
|
# 4
|
3,771,850 |
|
|
# 5
|
2,952,370 |
|
|
# 6
|
2,853,739 |
|
|
# 7
|
2,683,849 |
|
|
# 8
|
2,516,918 |
|
|
# 9
|
2,231,550 |
|
|
# 10
|
1,764,630 |
|
|
# 11
|
1,543,220 |
|
|
# 12
|
1,516,029 |
|
|
# 13
|
1,422,863 |
|
|
# 14
|
1,404,229 |
|
|
# 15
|
1,340,529 |
|
|
# 16
|
1,234,784 |
|
|
# 17
|
973,548 |
|
|
# 18
|
923,271 |
|
|
# 19
|
593,997 |
|
|
# 20
|
565,108 |
|
|
# 21
|
553,594 |
|
|
# 22
|
552,411 |
|
|
# 23
|
520,194 |
|
|
# 24
|
491,026 |
|
|
# 25
|
427,230 |
|
|
# 26
|
420,782 |
|
|
# 27
|
372,341 |
|
|
# 28
|
351,153 |
|
|
# 29
|
330,071 |
|
|
# 30
|
312,204 |
|
|
# 31
|
307,631 |
|
|
# 32
|
286,482 |
|
|
# 33
|
283,702 |
|
|
# 34
|
236,165 |
|
|
# 35
|
218,360 |
|
|
# 36
|
214,192 |
|
|
# 37
|
167,173 |
|
|
# 38
|
Peru: |
161,621 |
|
# 39
|
148,915 |
|
|
# 40
|
134,010 |
|
|
# 41
|
132,867 |
|
|
# 42
|
130,375 |
|
|
# 43
|
107,373 |
|
|
# 44
|
102,783 |
|
|
# 45
|
101,853 |
|
|
# 46
|
92,646 |
|
|
# 47
|
85,776 |
|
|
# 48
|
84,599 |
|
|
# 49
|
81,697 |
|
|
# 50
|
81,274 |
|
|
# 51
|
80,592 |
|
|
# 52
|
60,242 |
|
|
# 53
|
59,426 |
|
|
# 54
|
57,799 |
|
|
# 55
|
49,329 |
|
|
# 56
|
44,762 |
|
|
# 57
|
40,263 |
|
|
# 58
|
39,188 |
|
|
# 59
|
38,620 |
|
|
# 60
|
36,302 |
|
|
# 61
|
35,943 |
|
|
# 62
|
31,138 |
|
|
# 63
|
26,046 |
|
|
# 64
|
24,066 |
|
|
# 65
|
21,058 |
|
|
# 66
|
19,814 |
|
|
# 67
|
19,350 |
|
|
# 68
|
18,301 |
|
|
# 69
|
17,023 |
|
|
# 70
|
15,520 |
|
|
# 71
|
15,029 |
|
|
# 72
|
13,292 |
|
|
# 73
|
13,023 |
|
|
# 74
|
12,048 |
|
|
# 75
|
Oman: |
11,782 |
|
# 76
|
8,872 |
|
|
# 77
|
7,857 |
|
|
# 78
|
7,026 |
|
|
# 79
|
5,838 |
|
|
# 80
|
5,303 |
|
|
# 81
|
4,297 |
|
|
# 82
|
751 |
|
|
|
Total: |
63,531,202 |
|
|
Weighted average: |
774,770.8 |
|
DEFINITION: Note:
Crime statistics are often
better indicators of prevalence of law enforcement and willingness to report crime (I believe, and facts support, crime in
america to be substantially under-reported and under-prosecuted owing to
pervasive corruption, arbitrary enforcement of the law, etc.) than actual
prevalence.
SOURCE: The Eighth United Nations Survey on Crime Trends and
the Operations of Criminal Justice Systems (2002) (United Nations Office on
Drugs and Crime, Centre for International Crime Prevention)
Unemployment
Claims Not as Bullish as They Seem (Why?
Kudrna:‘The Labor Department reported
Thursday morning that new claims for unemployment dropped a seasonally adjusted
27,000 to 451,000. Unexpected bullish news, right? The markets immediately
gapped-up on this information as the bulls found good reason to buy. Unexpected
positive news is almost always met with a bullish move north as it’s rarely
priced in. However, a useful tidbit of information about that shockingly large
drop came out after the gap-up. Bloomberg reported that nine states didn't file
claims data to the Labor Department in Washington because of the Labor Day holiday
earlier this week. California and Virginia estimated their figures and the U.S.
government estimated the other seven. Coincidence in the large drop or not? We
will see when the next revision comes out but usually those revisions fail to
make headlines as we are already focusing on future claims. This has been a
great cover-up method for a long time…’
How Government
Reporting Will Intensify the Inevitable , On Friday September 10, 2010,
12:41 pm EDT ‘Natural
carbonation keeps a champagne bottle under constant pressure. The more you
shake the bottle, the higher the pressure gets and the further the cork will
eventually fly. Figuratively speaking, the government has been shaking the
bottle. Watch out when the cork pops. On August 10, the Associated Press
reported that the Federal Reserve has found a new trick to jumpstart the
economy. Below is the full quote that shows why we probably can't expect
unbiased assessments coming out of Washington, or the Fed's corner: 'The
Federal Reserve policymakers are pondering ways to jumpstart the economic
recovery. The trick: making sure whatever they do or say doesn't rattle Wall
Street.' Some of the recent government statistics have been 'interesting' no
doubt, and we know the administration has spent trillions in an attempt to lift
the economy, but would it go as far as actually fudging statistics? We'll
examine potential cases for 'data spiking' in a moment, but for now we'll take
a look at one of the most popular government statistics, which is misleading to
say the least.
GDP - Like a Flag in the Wind
GDP reports are prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and are a
science all in itself. GDP reports are often revised. The 'advance' estimate is
published at the end of the first month following the close of a quarter. In
addition to the 'advance' estimate, there are first and second revisions called
the 'preliminary' and 'final' estimates. The 'final' estimate is reviewed
annually, usually in July. Once every several years, the BEA reviews all data
back to 1929. On July 30, the BEA lowered Q2 2010 growth from an estimated 2.7%
to 2.4%. The real GDP for all three previous years was revised as well. It was
lowered by 0.2% for 2007, it was lowered by 0.6% for 2008 and it was lowered by
0.4% for 2009 (see chart below)[chart]. In percentage terms, the real GDP for
2007 was revised down from 2.5% growth to 2.3%. The 2008 decrease was lowered
from 1.9% to 2.8%, and 2009 growth was revised up from a 0.1% to a 0.2%
increase. In essence, the BEA proved that the recession was (or is) much deeper
and the alleged recovery much weaker than previously reported. Imagine if you
would have based your 2007 and 2008 investment decisions on GDP reports. But
wait, there is more. On August 27, the BEA lowered the Q2 2010 GDP growth from
2.4% to 1.6%. The financial media, however, applauded the reduction since
the final 1.6 number was still higher than the 1.4% economists expected. Stocks
rallied over 2% that day.
Unemployment Numbers - Not Deserving of Your Trust
Unemployment in August increased from 9.5% to 9.6%, but that's ok. Why?
According to the financial media, the increase of unemployment was due to an
increase in labor force. An estimated 6.6 million students will be graduating
and joining the labor force this year. An increasing labor force is a reality,
not an excuse to rationalize higher unemployment numbers. The real unemployment
rate (U-6) reported by the BLS (but neglected by the financial media) jumped
from 16.5% to 16.7%. Nevertheless, stocks rallied nearly 3% when unemployment
figures were released on September 3rd. According to the BLS, the manufacturing
sector lost 27,000 jobs in August. This, however, contradicts the positive August
ISM manufacturing report, which rose from 55.5% to 56.3%. Here is the
analysis from the Institute for Supply Management: 'A PMI in excess of 42
percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall
economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates growth for the 16th consecutive month in
the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the
13th consecutive month.' If you ask the unemployed, it doesn't feel like the
manufacturing sector is improving.
Changing Rules to Accommodate Growth
Amidst the biggest financial meltdown since the Great Depression, the
administration had to act quickly. The sheer amount of toxic assets overwhelmed
the banking (NYSEArca: KBE - News)
and financial sectors (NYSEArca: XLF - News),
which led to the fall of Lehman Brothers and credit contraction around the
globe (NYSEArca: EFA - News).
It was impossible to eliminate trillions of bad loans or revive the ailing real
estate market (NYSEArca: IYR - News).
It was impossible to prop up faltering sectors like consumer discretionary
(NYSEArca: XLY - News)
and technology (NYSEArca: XLK - News).
In short, it was impossible to change reality. It was, however, possible to
change the prevailing perception and hide the root problems. In fact, it wasn't
just possible; it proved to be fairly easy. The government simply urged the
Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) to change some rules. On April 2,
2009, the FASB changed Rule 157. The ripple effect caused by massive real
estate losses suffered by the 'too big to fail' banks (NYSEArca: IYF
- News),
as well as regional banks (NYSEArca: KRE
- News),
threatened the integrity of the entire system. The 157 Rule change allowed
banks to park all their losses in a bucket called other comprehensive income
(OCI). OCI appears on the balance sheet, but not on the income statement and
thus does not affect earnings. In late 2009 and early 2010, banks exceeded
their earnings expectations - at least on paper - which created the perception
that the economy was recovering. As it turns out, the timing for the Rule 157
change was perfect and coincided with the biggest stock market rally in recent
history. A 50%+ run in the Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI), S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), and
Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) intensified the perception that the economy was on the
mend. Before the accounting rule change and other government efforts, the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter predicted the biggest rally since the October 2007
all-time highs. Via the March 2nd Trend Change Alert, the newsletter advised to
close out previously recommended short positions (some gained 100% and more)
and buy long and leveraged ETFs, many of which gained 50%, 100% or more.
Back to the Future
All was well until April 2010. Prior to the April highs, Mr. Bernanke, Mr.
Geithner, and the President were campaigning for their fair share of credit for
rescuing and reviving the country. Rather than examining and disclosing some of
the government's questionable methods, the media jumped on the bandwagon and
tickled the alleged 'saviors' egos. By doing so, the pressure in the champagne
bottle was increased. More investors bought stocks under the mistaken view the
economy had improved. This increased the pool of stock owners and the pipeline
of sellers. As per the most recent GDP numbers, investors found out that the
state of the economy is worse than previously thought. Furthermore, the
government has lost credibility and some of its associated ability to inflate
stock market confidence. Watch out, once the cork blows! Investors
leaving the market could send prices falling as fast as champagne gushing out
of a bottle. In fact, this exodus probably started already. On April 16,
the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted that: 'The cork seems to have popped.
Reality is setting in. The pieces are in place for a major decline.' Following
the April highs, the ensuing decline erased eight months worth of gains in a
mere 22 trading days. An initial wave of somewhat critical media reports
quickly faded as the stock market stabilized. Sideways trading tends to calm
the nerves and get investors re-engaged before the hammer drops again. What's
the moral of the story? Faulty
government data and trend-following media reports tend to distort the real
picture and postpone and intensify the inevitable.
The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
combines the analysis of various indicators with common sense and
out-of-the-box thinking to formulate a short, mid, and long-term forecast.’
Drudgereport:
Thousands
of Afghans protest Quran-burning plan...
Tennessee
preacher to burn Quran...
Topeka,
Kansas church vows burning...
Protester
plans to burn on Wyoming's Capitol steps...
FLASHBACK:
Muslims Burn Bibles and Destroy Crosses...
Ground Zero imam ignores pastor's two-hour deadline...
12
soldiers face trial after Afghan civilians 'were killed for sport and their
fingers collected as trophies'...
GOV'T
MAKES IT UP: JOBS NUMBERS 'ESTIMATED' FOR WEEK...
'BETTER
THAN EXPECTED'...
Treasuries
Tumble Following Weak 30-Year Sale...
U.S.
drops in competitiveness ( Washington Post ) [ Fourth place for pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america?
I don’t think so; not in their wildest dreams, and there’s a lot of that in
america these days, but little else. Reality says america’s place should be in
the twenties at best. Previous: U.S.
drops in competitiveness
(Washington Post) [ Singapore, Sweden, … ? Don’t make me laugh! From defacto bankrupt, meaningfully lawless
america’s perspective, this fallen ranking was a gift and one must be asking,
what were they smoking (or whose money were they taking?) and is the rest of
the world really that bad off? ] Large
deficits and a weakened financial system make the U.S. less competitive in the
global economy, according to World Economic Forum's new ranking. Sweden
Is A Better Place To Do Business Than The U.S. – [Well, that part is true, but
…]. ‘…Sweden, by contrast, has
“the world’s most transparent and efficient public institutions, with very low
levels of corruption and undue influence.” Which loosely translated from
wonk-speak sounds like, “You’re better off dealing with honest socialists than
crony capitalists.”’ [ True enough, but I still don’t buy it (the rankings),
especially america’s fourth place (as opposed to lower) ranking.]
[ It’s really quite amazing, and you won’t get this from the ‘money
honeys’ or other mainstream drivel (actually I got this from the CBS news
reporter, 1070am radio, but NOT their business report), the so-called better
than expected jobs report (albeit bad at 451,000 continuing claims) was
actually based upon federal government estimates for those reports that were
not submitted owing to the holiday … and we all know how conservative the u.s.
government is in making estimates, especially in election cycles when
desperation abounds … riiiiight! (
Drudge also comes through - Drudgereport: GOV'T MAKES IT UP: JOBS
NUMBERS 'ESTIMATED' FOR WEEK... 'BETTER
THAN EXPECTED'... ) Then
there’s the ‘need more capital’ news from among the strongest players in the
European sector, viz., Germany’s Deutsch Bank, which can only mean,
particularly in light of their adoption of the fraudulent wall street american
mark to anything valuation of worthless paper, still out there in the many
(hundreds?) of trillions, things are not rosy in the eu, u.s., etc., zones (see
infra, ‘…ECB chief economist Jurgen Stark tells German MPs that the banking
system is insolvent. This led to complete shock because the newspaper headlines
from July suggested the opposite. The German policy establishment is under the
illusion that its banking system is sound because it passed what turned out to
be fraudulent stress test…’) Now, if the German banking system’s insolvent, is
there a term for double, triple, quadrupal, etc., insolvent for what the
american banking system must be? One doesn’t need clairvoyance to know that
only bodes ill. Stocks Cling to Skinny Gains, Can't Shake Banking
Concerns ]
The Eerie Implications of Market
Volume and Mutual Fund Flows ‘… Here's a more compelling question: If
two-thirds or more of daily volume is a function of high-frequency trading,
what are the implications for index prices over the long haul? A year has
passed since I posted some charts illustrating the incredible ratio of S&P
500 volume devoted to five financial stocks. Today's game is no doubt different
from last September. It may be about making money, but it probably has little
to do with investing — which may explain a lot about current volume metrics and
mutual fund flows. I'll update these volume charts periodically in the months
ahead.’
Report From Europe: Fall in U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
Cheers Stocks The Mole …
Today is Rosh Hashanah, the jewish New Year, in which it is believed the names
of the righteous are recorded in the book of life, those in the middle ground
are given ten days to repent and become good, while the wicked are deleted from
the book of life. In essence, it is make or break time for the year. One
wonders if we might be entering a similar phase for Ireland with landmark
decisions over the fate of Anglo Irish Bank taken (with the cost of the funeral
to be know in early October) and the funding cliff for Irish banks to refund
some €25bn of maturing debt this month pending (though I feel fears over their
capacity to roll this debt is way overblown)…
Today’s Market Moving Stories
·
Australian
job growth exceeded forecasts in August, sending the unemployment rate down to
5.1% and driving the nation’s currency higher on speculation the central bank
will resume raising interest rates. Employers added 30,900 workers in August,
exceeding the median forecast for 25,000 in a Bloomberg News survey of 25
economists, the statistics bureau said in Sydney today. The jobless rate
matched the lowest level since January 2009.
Company
/ Equity News
·
BP’s (BP) tumultuous rating from Fitch was yesterday upgraded by
three notches to A, with a stable outlook, reflecting “an end to the threat of
further leaks from the Macondo well.the improved visibility of potential
liability scenarios the company could still face and substantial progress that BP
has made to date in building up liquidity to address potential financial
payments.” Specifically Fitch estimates that BP’s total pending liabilities
could range from a low of $35 billion if BP is cleared of gross negligence and
receives a lower range fine under the US Clean Water Act that is shared with
its partners; to a high of $67.5 billion if BP is guilty of gross negligence,
has to pay the Clean Water Act fines in full and does not receive tax relief
for the write-off costs of the spill. However even in the high liability
scenario, Fitch considers BP to have “adequate financial resources to meet its
obligations to a degree that is commensurate with the current credit rating
category.” While Fitch’s action is a positive development, it merely brings the
rating in line with S&P and Moody’s. Given that it is almost 3 months since
S&P and Moody’s downgraded BP and left it on watch negative, some sort of
comment is also due from these two agencies, and although the developments have
been positive since June, I am not expecting an upgrade in the near future.
·
Visa (V), the world’s largest payments network,
posted the biggest drop in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index after Bank of
America Corp.’s James Kissane became the first analyst to recommend avoiding
the shares. “We are among the only skeptics on the networks,” Kissane said
today in a note to clients as he cut the shares to “underperform” from
“neutral.” That’s typically interpreted as a sell recommendation, the only one
among 38 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. “The pricing power of the networks is
likely to be considerably diminished,” he wrote.
Worth a read: Michael Lewis has a field
day: Beware of Greeks Bearing Bonds (Vanity Fair)
Drudgereport:
GOV'T
MAKES IT UP: JOBS NUMBERS 'ESTIMATED' FOR WEEK...
'BETTER
THAN EXPECTED'...
Treasuries
Tumble Following Weak 30-Year Sale...
600
Lockheed execs take buyout
(Washington Post) [ Talk about
having your fingers on the economic / fiscal pulse of the nation. This should
be a new leading economic indicator which, unlike many of the others, is less
prone to manipulation. All hail, the ‘golden goose’ is dead! Drudgereport: MORGAN STANLEY: U.S. Government Bond
Defaults Inevitable … This is a global depression. This is a
secular bear market in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated
bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically
manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that
the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical
wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior
crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until
justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted,
jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. ] The move reflects a shift underway as defense
contractors scramble to prepare for Pentagon budget cuts.
U.S.
drops in competitiveness
(Washington Post) [ Singapore, Sweden, … ? Don’t make me laugh! From defacto bankrupt, meaningfully lawless
america’s perspective, this fallen ranking was a gift and one must be asking,
what were they smoking (or whose money were they taking?) and is the rest of
the world really that bad off? ] Large
deficits and a weakened financial system make the U.S. less competitive in the
global economy, according to World Economic Forum's new ranking.
Afghans question U.S.-style capitalism (Washington Post) [ As indeed they should inasmuch as the same is neither capitalism nor american style in the traditional sense referenced here. Defacto bankrupt, in decline, and pervasively corrupt, meaningfully lawless america is a nation unworthy of emulation! ] Kabul Bank became the pride of Afghanistan's financial system by offering the conveniences and thrills of 21st-century capitalism. But the scene outside the bank's headquarters Wednesday was far from that modern ideal.
Fed
sees widespread slowdown of growth (Washington Post) [ Stocks rally anyway
… the ‘miracle of computerized programmed trading’ even if the math and
fundamentals don’t add up …
Bad Math - Why The Bullish Case Doesn't Add Up , On Wednesday September 8, 2010, 3:19 pm
EDT
1+1=2 2+2=4
The simplicity and accuracy of those calculations is undeniable. How about this
equation? Fundamental Weakness + Technical Sell Signals + Overpriced Stocks =
Lower Stock Prices. This calculation also seems to be simple and accurate.
Let's look at some equations that don't make sense.
1+1=3 or Better Earnings = Higher Stock Prices
Earnings season is over. Most companies beat earnings but issued cautious
forecasts. This is particularly true of the tech (NYSEArca: XLK
- News)
and financial sectors (NYSEArca: XLF - News).
By large, profits are still driven by cost-cutting, not organic growth. Retail
sales, which make up about one third of the economy, continued to fall after
the second quarter ended. Additionally, the expectation that taxes will go up
might have moved some companies to pull some of next year's income into this
year. This can't be good for Q3 and Q4 profits. As we've seen in January and
April of 2010, positive earnings reports are not bullish for stocks, especially
if future guidance is weak.
2+2=5 or Weaker than Expected Economy = Rising Stock Prices
On July 30, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) lowered the Q2 Gross Domestic
Product (GD) growth from an estimated 2.7% to 2.4%. On August 27, the Q2 GDP
was lowered further to a jaw-dropping 1.6%. But it didn't stop there. The real
GDP for all three previous years was revised as well. It was lowered by 0.2%
for 2007, it was lowered by 0.6% for 2008, and it was lowered by 0.4% for 2009.
In percentage terms, the real GDP for 2007 was revised down from 2.5% growth to
2.3%. The 2008 decrease was lowered from 1.9% to 2.8% and 2009 growth was
revised up from a 0.1% to a 0.2% increase. In essence, the BEA proved that the
recession was (or is) much deeper than perceived and the alleged recovery much
weaker than previously reported. This comes as no surprise, as the key sector
of the financial debacle - real estate (NYSEArca: IYR
- News)
- remains in a funk. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that the number of vacant
properties, including foreclosures, residences for sale, and vacation homes,
reached 18.9 million. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continue to lose money. Has
anyone ever wondered how banks (NYSEArca: KBE
- News)
can make money on the same kind of loans that pushed Fannie and Freddie to the
brink of ruin? Since bad real estate loans triggered the post 2007 economic
meltdown, how can the economy recover without real estate leading the way?
3+3=7 or Positive Analyst Estimates = Higher Stock Prices
A recent Associated Press article observed that 'analysts only seem to hit the
mark with their estimates in the strongest economic times (2003 - 2006).' Why?
'The problem is that analysts get most of their information from the companies
they cover. Corporate managers have every incentive to stay positive for as
long as they can.' Is that true; as true as 1+1=2? On April 26, the day the
S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) topped at 1,219, the Dow (DJI: ^DJI) at 11,258, the Nasdaq
(Nasdaq: ^IXIC) at 2,535, Bloomberg reported the following: 'U.S. stocks
cheapest since 1990 on analyst estimates.' Contrary to analyst estimates, the
ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter stated that 'the potential exists that Monday's
high marked a significant top.' Since April, the broad market dropped as much
as 17%. In March 2009, with the Dow below 7000 and the S&P below 700,
analysts lowered their earnings forecasts from $113 in April 2008 to $40. On
March 2nd, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter sent out a Trend Change Alert and
recommended to buy long and leveraged long ETFs such as the Direxion Daily
Financial Bull 3X Shares (NYSEArca: FAS
- News)
and Ultra S&P 500 ProShares (NYSEArca: SSO
- News).
If
you care to know, until recently, analysts estimated that earnings for the
S&P 500 will exceed their 2006 all-time high, in 2011. Based on that
assumption, stocks are cheap. How about that for flawed math?
4+4=9 or Technical Sell Signals = Higher Stock Prices
The 200-day moving average (MA) is one of the best-known technical indicators,
as it provides delineation between technically healthy and sick stocks. On May
20, the S&P closed below the 200-day MA for the first time since late 2007.
Every attempt to rally and stay above it has since failed miserably. On July 2,
the 50-day MA for the S&P dropped below its 200-day MA for the first time
since late 2007. The same holds true for mid caps (NYSEArca: MDY
- News),
small caps (NYSEArca: IWM - News)
and nearly all individual sector indexes. For good reason, this is called a
Death Cross. Over the past ten years, the death cross has been accurate 75% of
the time, with a 19.72% average return on six winning trades and 6.95% average
return on two losing trades. [chart] In addition to the Death Cross, there are
two head and shoulders patterns, one in the making for over 10 years, and the
other has the breadth suggestive of a major meltdown (see September ETF Profit
Strategy Newsletter).
5+5=11 or Overvalued Stocks = Higher Prices
As explained above, based on overly optimistic earnings estimates, analysts
believe that stocks are cheap. Rather than basing a future outlook on
estimates, it makes sense to use facts as a foundation for any outlook. Why add
an extra variable to what's already an unpredictable market? Ask Yale Professor
Robert Shiller, who's done extensive research on the subject of valuations, and
he'll tell you stocks are historically overvalued based on the current P/E
ratio. Compare today's P/E ratio with the P/E ratio seen at major market
bottoms, and you'll see that stocks are overvalued by more than 50%. Another
gauge that doesn't lie is dividend yields. A company's dividends are a direct
reflection of cash flow and financial health. The current yield is 2.65% for
the Dow and 2.05% for the S&P. Dividends are close to their all-time
low set in 1999 (we know what happened then). This means that companies are
cash strapped and overvalued. Looking at a long-term chart of dividend yields
plotted against stock prices shows clearly that markets don't bottom until
dividends skyrocket. Just as ice doesn't thaw unless the temperature moves
above 32 degrees, the economy won't thaw and show signs of life unless P/E
ratios drop to, and dividend yields rise to, levels seen at major market
bottoms. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
includes a detailed analysis of four valuation metrics, along with short-term
target ranges for stocks and the ultimate market bottom. Based on simple math
and common sense, the July lows are certainly in danger. But it doesn't stop
there.
Report From Europe: Panic Amongst the PIIGS (Seeking Alpha – The Mole) [ Sounds
far from hunky-dory to me and as the
wall street frauds would have you believe and used as a rallying point this
day. Total b*** s***! ] ‘U.S. stocks fell for the first time in five days
Tuesday, ending the longest streak of gains for the S&P 500 Index since
July, on concern the European debt crisis may worsen and hamper global growth.
Bank of America (BAC) and
Citigroup (C) fell at least 2% as European banks slid on
concern stress tests understated potential losses from sovereign debt.
Meanwhile ConocoPhillips (COP) and Chevron (CVX) slumped more than 1.2% as crude oil fell
the most in a week. But Oracle (ORCL) rallied 5.9%
after naming Mark Hurd, former chief executive officer of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) as president. Today, despite some token
buying by the ECB and a decent Portuguese bond auction, the bond vigilantes
have again been out doing their worst pushing the Irish / German 10 year spread
out to levels not seem since 1988 when the debt GDP ratio was 118% . Indeed
yesterday saw the worst single daily performance by Irish Government
bonds ever in terms of spread widening. Greece is also back in the
crosshairs in response to a downward revision to Q2 Greek GDP to -1.8% from
-1.5% originally, and on news the National Bank of Greece plans to raise Eur2.8
bln of capital. The latter may be especially alarming in the current
environment, but really reflects a desire for extra security and also a cash
hoard to potentially spend on weaker rivals. ATEbank stands prominently in this
respect. (picture)
Today’s Market Moving Stories
The stand-out mover in FX today was GBP, which rallied sharply, largely it
would seem on news that Vodafone (VOD) has sold
its stake in China Mobile and intends to use 70% of the proceeds (Ł4.2bn) to
fund share buybacks. The macros community had started to build GBP shorts in
recent days and this M&A flow prompted a flurry of short-covering, assisted
as well by better than feared Halifax house price data.
Irish Banking
According to the Irish Times this morning, the bank’s chairman has stated that
a statement on Anglo should be expected today. Who will make it or what the
nature of the announcement will be is not evident, but keep eyes peeled around
4pm. Recent media reports have indicated strongly that an orderly wind down of
the bank over 10-15yrs is the new preferred option. But what the markets are
really looking for is an update on the total FINAL bottom line kitchen sink
cost of the bailout and whether its closer to Eur 25bn or S&P’s recent
& much criticized Eur 35bn figure. UPDATE – SEE VERY BOTTOM OF THIS POST.
Bloomberg reports that private equity heavyweight J.C. Flowers and three other
bidders for Ireland’s EBS Building Society may buy and merge several lenders to
create a new competitor to the country’s biggest banks, two people familiar
with the situation said. J.C. Flowers., the U.S. buyout firm, Dublin-based
Cardinal Asset Management, backed by U.S. private equity firm Carlyle Group,
and Doughty Hanson & Co. are vying with Irish Life & Permanent Plc (ILPMF.PK) to take control of EBS, said the
people who declined to be identified. Each of the bidders said in talks that
they plan to merge EBS, the country’s biggest customer-owned lender, with other
building societies. That would create a new rival to Bank of Ireland Plc (IRE) and Allied Irish Banks Plc (AIB), the country’s biggest lenders. EBS and
the National Treasury Management Agency, which is overseeing the sale, will
probably select a preferred bidder or two short-listed bidders next week,
according to one of the people.
Japan
Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said he is prepared to take “bold”
action on currencies, including intervention in foreign-exchange markets, after
the yen reached a 15-year high against the dollar. “We will take bold action if
necessary and naturally that can include intervention,” Noda told lawmakers in
parliament today. “We have to use every option available as a strong yen is
likely to have a severe impact on companies.” The yen rose to 83.52 per dollar
yesterday, the highest level since June 1995, as concerns about weakening
growth in the U.S. and Europe bolstered the currency’s appeal as a refuge.
UK Outlook
A U.K. index of hiring for permanent jobs in August showed the slowest growth
pace in 10 months, KPMG LLP and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation
said. The gauge of full-time job placements dropped to 56.3 from 60.2 in July,
the groups said in an e-mailed report today in London. That’s the slowest pace
since October. Readings above 50 indicate an increase in hiring. The U.K. is
bracing itself for a period of austerity as Prime Minister David Cameron
pledges to reduce the country’s record budget deficit. U.K. shop price
inflation accelerated in August as the price of food rose at the quickest
annual pace in over a year, a survey showed Tuesday. Total shop price inflation
was 1.7% on the year in August and 0.1% on the month, compared with a 1.5%
annual rate and 0.1% monthly decline in prices in July, the monthly survey by
the British Retail Consortium showed. That was due to a more-than-one
percentage point rise in the cost of food. Food prices were 3.8% higher in
August than a year earlier, while food prices rose 0.2% from July. And July’s
UK industrial production figures suggest that the manufacturing sector
continues to enjoy steady, if unspectacular, growth. The 0.3% rise in
manufacturing output was the third such gain in a row and pushed the yoy rate
of output growth up to a new cycle high of 4.9%. Overall industrial production
saw a similar monthly gain. For now, then, the output data are defying the
rather gloomier tone of some of the recent industrial surveys, such as last
week’s CIPS report on manufacturing. But it is worth remembering that the
surveys normally lead the hard data by a few months, so it would be no surprise
if output growth were to start to weaken over the next few months. And even if
output posts similar increases in August and September, industry won’t make as
strong a contribution to GDP growth in Q3 as it did in Q2. Overall, UK industry
is still doing pretty well, but it may not last too much longer. (picture)
Company / Equity News
And
finally UPDATE
– Text of announcement on Anglo Irish
The Minister for Finance today briefed his Government colleagues on the
strategic options for the future of Anglo Irish Bank. The Minister conveyed to
the Government the views of the Board of Anglo Irish Bank, the Central Bank,
the National Treasury Management Agency, the Department of Finance, the EU
Commission and his own assessment of the position.The Government decided that
Anglo Irish Bank will be split into a Funding Bank and an Asset Recovery Bank.
Anglo Irish Bank has not expanded its loan book since it was nationalised in
early 2009 and this will remain the case. It is intended that in due course the
Recovery Bank will be sold in whole or in part or that its assets will be run
off over a period of time. The guaranteed position of depositors will be
unchanged by the new arrangements and no action is required of them as a result
of today’s announcement. The depositors will become customers of the Funding
Bank which will be fully capitalized and continue as a regulated bank. In order
to restore the reputation of the Irish Financial System it is essential to bring
finality to the problem of Anglo Irish Bank – our most distressed institution.
The Government’s primary objective in dealing with Anglo Irish Bank has been to
minimise the cost of this distressed bank to the Irish taxpayer. The Board of
Anglo Irish Bank submitted its preferred option to the Minister and to the
European Commission at the end of May for consideration under State Aid rules.
The board’s plan envisaged splitting the bank into an asset management company
and a new good bank. The asset management company would have managed out over
time the bank’s lower quality assets remaining after the transfers to NAMA. The
new good bank would have managed the remaining share of the loan book, retained
the bank’s deposit funding and sought new lending opportunities to grow the
bank. The Minister acknowledges the good faith and hard work of the board in
producing a credible proposal for the future of the bank. However, the
Government has concluded that this plan in its current form does not now
provide the most viable and sustainable solution to ensure the continued
stability of the Irish banking system.
Resolution Proposal
In these circumstances, the Government has decided to opt for a variation of
the board’s restructuring proposal. The Government’s decision does not affect
existing guarantee arrangements. Under the restructuring plan, the Funding Bank
will be a Government-backed/guaranteed specialist deposit bank which will
contain the bank’s deposit book. It will be a stand-alone, regulated bank,
completely separated from Anglo’s loan assets and it will be owned directly by
the Minister for Finance. This bank will not engage in any lending, but will
provide a secure home for Anglo’s depositors and any new customers who wish to
deposit their funds with it. Depositors with the Funding Bank will be
completely insulated from the future performance of the rest of the current
Anglo Irish Bank loan book. The Asset Recovery Bank will also be a licensed
regulated bank. Its dedicated focus will be on the work-out over a period of
time of the assets not being transferred to NAMA in a manner which maximises
the return to the taxpayer.
Costs
The Government believes that it is essential to identify, with as much
certainty as possible, the final cost for the restructuring and resolution of
the bank. This will underpin international financial confidence in Ireland.
Accordingly, the Central Bank will determine the appropriate levels of capital
needed in both institutions. Its decision will be announced by October.
EU Commission
The Department of Finance has conducted intensive discussions with the EU
Commission in recent weeks about the future of Anglo Irish Bank. The Minister
for Finance met Commissioner Almunia last Monday to discuss the issue. A formal
detailed plan is being prepared for submission to the Commission for approval.
The Minister said: “Today’s decision by the Government will provide certainty
about the future of Anglo Irish Bank. Resolution of this, our most distressed
institution, is essential to the promotion of confidence and stability in our
financial system.”
8th September 2010
ENDS
Brian Meenan
Press Office
PH: 6045875
email: [email protected]
‘
This is what a depression is all about — an economy that 33 months after
a recession begins, with zero policy rates, a stuffed central bank sheet, and a
10% deficit-to-GDP ratio, is still in need of government help for its
sustenance.
Bad Math - Why The Bullish Case Doesn't Add Up , On Wednesday September 8, 2010, 3:19 pm
EDT
1+1=2 2+2=4
The simplicity and accuracy of those calculations is undeniable. How about this
equation? Fundamental Weakness + Technical Sell Signals + Overpriced Stocks =
Lower Stock Prices. This calculation also seems to be simple and accurate.
Let's look at some equations that don't make sense.
1+1=3 or Better Earnings = Higher Stock Prices
Earnings season is over. Most companies beat earnings but issued cautious
forecasts. This is particularly true of the tech (NYSEArca: XLK
- News)
and financial sectors (NYSEArca: XLF - News).
By large, profits are still driven by cost-cutting, not organic growth. Retail
sales, which make up about one third of the economy, continued to fall after
the second quarter ended. Additionally, the expectation that taxes will go up
might have moved some companies to pull some of next year's income into this
year. This can't be good for Q3 and Q4 profits. As we've seen in January and
April of 2010, positive earnings reports are not bullish for stocks, especially
if future guidance is weak.
2+2=5 or Weaker than Expected Economy = Rising Stock Prices
On July 30, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) lowered the Q2 Gross Domestic
Product (GD) growth from an estimated 2.7% to 2.4%. On August 27, the Q2 GDP
was lowered further to a jaw-dropping 1.6%. But it didn't stop there. The real
GDP for all three previous years was revised as well. It was lowered by 0.2%
for 2007, it was lowered by 0.6% for 2008, and it was lowered by 0.4% for 2009.
In percentage terms, the real GDP for 2007 was revised down from 2.5% growth to
2.3%. The 2008 decrease was lowered from 1.9% to 2.8% and 2009 growth was
revised up from a 0.1% to a 0.2% increase. In essence, the BEA proved that the
recession was (or is) much deeper than perceived and the alleged recovery much
weaker than previously reported. This comes as no surprise, as the key sector
of the financial debacle - real estate (NYSEArca: IYR
- News)
- remains in a funk. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that the number of vacant
properties, including foreclosures, residences for sale, and vacation homes,
reached 18.9 million. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continue to lose money. Has
anyone ever wondered how banks (NYSEArca: KBE
- News)
can make money on the same kind of loans that pushed Fannie and Freddie to the
brink of ruin? Since bad real estate loans triggered the post 2007 economic
meltdown, how can the economy recover without real estate leading the way?
3+3=7 or Positive Analyst Estimates = Higher Stock Prices
A recent Associated Press article observed that 'analysts only seem to hit the
mark with their estimates in the strongest economic times (2003 - 2006).' Why?
'The problem is that analysts get most of their information from the companies
they cover. Corporate managers have every incentive to stay positive for as
long as they can.' Is that true; as true as 1+1=2? On April 26, the day the
S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) topped at 1,219, the Dow (DJI: ^DJI) at 11,258, the Nasdaq
(Nasdaq: ^IXIC) at 2,535, Bloomberg reported the following: 'U.S. stocks
cheapest since 1990 on analyst estimates.' Contrary to analyst estimates, the
ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter stated that 'the potential exists that Monday's
high marked a significant top.' Since April, the broad market dropped as much
as 17%. In March 2009, with the Dow below 7000 and the S&P below 700,
analysts lowered their earnings forecasts from $113 in April 2008 to $40. On
March 2nd, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter sent out a Trend Change Alert and
recommended to buy long and leveraged long ETFs such as the Direxion Daily
Financial Bull 3X Shares (NYSEArca: FAS
- News)
and Ultra S&P 500 ProShares (NYSEArca: SSO
- News).
If
you care to know, until recently, analysts estimated that earnings for the
S&P 500 will exceed their 2006 all-time high, in 2011. Based on that
assumption, stocks are cheap. How about that for flawed math?
4+4=9 or Technical Sell Signals = Higher Stock Prices
The 200-day moving average (MA) is one of the best-known technical indicators,
as it provides delineation between technically healthy and sick stocks. On May
20, the S&P closed below the 200-day MA for the first time since late 2007.
Every attempt to rally and stay above it has since failed miserably. On July 2,
the 50-day MA for the S&P dropped below its 200-day MA for the first time
since late 2007. The same holds true for mid caps (NYSEArca: MDY
- News),
small caps (NYSEArca: IWM - News)
and nearly all individual sector indexes. For good reason, this is called a
Death Cross. Over the past ten years, the death cross has been accurate 75% of
the time, with a 19.72% average return on six winning trades and 6.95% average
return on two losing trades. [chart] In addition to the Death Cross, there are
two head and shoulders patterns, one in the making for over 10 years, and the
other has the breadth suggestive of a major meltdown (see September ETF Profit
Strategy Newsletter).
5+5=11 or Overvalued Stocks = Higher Prices
As explained above, based on overly optimistic earnings estimates, analysts
believe that stocks are cheap. Rather than basing a future outlook on
estimates, it makes sense to use facts as a foundation for any outlook. Why add
an extra variable to what's already an unpredictable market? Ask Yale Professor
Robert Shiller, who's done extensive research on the subject of valuations, and
he'll tell you stocks are historically overvalued based on the current P/E
ratio. Compare today's P/E ratio with the P/E ratio seen at major market
bottoms, and you'll see that stocks are overvalued by more than 50%. Another
gauge that doesn't lie is dividend yields. A company's dividends are a direct
reflection of cash flow and financial health. The current yield is 2.65% for
the Dow and 2.05% for the S&P. Dividends are close to their all-time
low set in 1999 (we know what happened then). This means that companies are
cash strapped and overvalued. Looking at a long-term chart of dividend yields
plotted against stock prices shows clearly that markets don't bottom until
dividends skyrocket. Just as ice doesn't thaw unless the temperature moves
above 32 degrees, the economy won't thaw and show signs of life unless P/E
ratios drop to, and dividend yields rise to, levels seen at major market
bottoms. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
includes a detailed analysis of four valuation metrics, along with short-term
target ranges for stocks and the ultimate market bottom. Based on simple math
and common sense, the July lows are certainly in danger. But it doesn't stop
there.
Report From Europe: Panic Amongst the PIIGS (Seeking Alpha – The Mole) [ Sounds
far from hunky-dory to me and as the
wall street frauds would have you believe and used as a rallying point this
day. Total b*** s***! ] ‘U.S. stocks fell for the first time in five days
Tuesday, ending the longest streak of gains for the S&P 500 Index since
July, on concern the European debt crisis may worsen and hamper global growth.
Bank of America (BAC) and
Citigroup (C) fell at least 2% as European banks slid on
concern stress tests understated potential losses from sovereign debt.
Meanwhile ConocoPhillips (COP) and Chevron (CVX) slumped more than 1.2% as crude oil fell
the most in a week. But Oracle (ORCL) rallied 5.9%
after naming Mark Hurd, former chief executive officer of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) as president. Today, despite some token
buying by the ECB and a decent Portuguese bond auction, the bond vigilantes
have again been out doing their worst pushing the Irish / German 10 year spread
out to levels not seem since 1988 when the debt GDP ratio was 118% . Indeed
yesterday saw the worst single daily performance by Irish Government
bonds ever in terms of spread widening. Greece is also back in the
crosshairs in response to a downward revision to Q2 Greek GDP to -1.8% from
-1.5% originally, and on news the National Bank of Greece plans to raise Eur2.8
bln of capital. The latter may be especially alarming in the current
environment, but really reflects a desire for extra security and also a cash
hoard to potentially spend on weaker rivals. ATEbank stands prominently in this
respect. (picture)
Today’s Market Moving Stories
The stand-out mover in FX today was GBP, which rallied sharply, largely it
would seem on news that Vodafone (VOD) has sold
its stake in China Mobile and intends to use 70% of the proceeds (Ł4.2bn) to
fund share buybacks. The macros community had started to build GBP shorts in
recent days and this M&A flow prompted a flurry of short-covering, assisted
as well by better than feared Halifax house price data.
Irish Banking
According to the Irish Times this morning, the bank’s chairman has stated that
a statement on Anglo should be expected today. Who will make it or what the
nature of the announcement will be is not evident, but keep eyes peeled around
4pm. Recent media reports have indicated strongly that an orderly wind down of
the bank over 10-15yrs is the new preferred option. But what the markets are
really looking for is an update on the total FINAL bottom line kitchen sink
cost of the bailout and whether its closer to Eur 25bn or S&P’s recent
& much criticized Eur 35bn figure. UPDATE – SEE VERY BOTTOM OF THIS POST.
Bloomberg reports that private equity heavyweight J.C. Flowers and three other
bidders for Ireland’s EBS Building Society may buy and merge several lenders to
create a new competitor to the country’s biggest banks, two people familiar
with the situation said. J.C. Flowers., the U.S. buyout firm, Dublin-based
Cardinal Asset Management, backed by U.S. private equity firm Carlyle Group,
and Doughty Hanson & Co. are vying with Irish Life & Permanent Plc (ILPMF.PK) to take control of EBS, said the
people who declined to be identified. Each of the bidders said in talks that
they plan to merge EBS, the country’s biggest customer-owned lender, with other
building societies. That would create a new rival to Bank of Ireland Plc (IRE) and Allied Irish Banks Plc (AIB), the country’s biggest lenders. EBS and
the National Treasury Management Agency, which is overseeing the sale, will
probably select a preferred bidder or two short-listed bidders next week,
according to one of the people.
Japan
Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said he is prepared to take “bold”
action on currencies, including intervention in foreign-exchange markets, after
the yen reached a 15-year high against the dollar. “We will take bold action if
necessary and naturally that can include intervention,” Noda told lawmakers in
parliament today. “We have to use every option available as a strong yen is
likely to have a severe impact on companies.” The yen rose to 83.52 per dollar
yesterday, the highest level since June 1995, as concerns about weakening
growth in the U.S. and Europe bolstered the currency’s appeal as a refuge.
UK Outlook
A U.K. index of hiring for permanent jobs in August showed the slowest growth
pace in 10 months, KPMG LLP and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation
said. The gauge of full-time job placements dropped to 56.3 from 60.2 in July,
the groups said in an e-mailed report today in London. That’s the slowest pace
since October. Readings above 50 indicate an increase in hiring. The U.K. is
bracing itself for a period of austerity as Prime Minister David Cameron
pledges to reduce the country’s record budget deficit. U.K. shop price
inflation accelerated in August as the price of food rose at the quickest
annual pace in over a year, a survey showed Tuesday. Total shop price inflation
was 1.7% on the year in August and 0.1% on the month, compared with a 1.5%
annual rate and 0.1% monthly decline in prices in July, the monthly survey by
the British Retail Consortium showed. That was due to a more-than-one
percentage point rise in the cost of food. Food prices were 3.8% higher in
August than a year earlier, while food prices rose 0.2% from July. And July’s
UK industrial production figures suggest that the manufacturing sector
continues to enjoy steady, if unspectacular, growth. The 0.3% rise in
manufacturing output was the third such gain in a row and pushed the yoy rate
of output growth up to a new cycle high of 4.9%. Overall industrial production
saw a similar monthly gain. For now, then, the output data are defying the
rather gloomier tone of some of the recent industrial surveys, such as last
week’s CIPS report on manufacturing. But it is worth remembering that the
surveys normally lead the hard data by a few months, so it would be no surprise
if output growth were to start to weaken over the next few months. And even if
output posts similar increases in August and September, industry won’t make as
strong a contribution to GDP growth in Q3 as it did in Q2. Overall, UK industry
is still doing pretty well, but it may not last too much longer. (picture)
Company / Equity News
And
finally UPDATE
– Text of announcement on Anglo Irish
The Minister for Finance today briefed his Government colleagues on the
strategic options for the future of Anglo Irish Bank. The Minister conveyed to
the Government the views of the Board of Anglo Irish Bank, the Central Bank,
the National Treasury Management Agency, the Department of Finance, the EU
Commission and his own assessment of the position.The Government decided that Anglo
Irish Bank will be split into a Funding Bank and an Asset Recovery Bank. Anglo
Irish Bank has not expanded its loan book since it was nationalised in early
2009 and this will remain the case. It is intended that in due course the
Recovery Bank will be sold in whole or in part or that its assets will be run
off over a period of time. The guaranteed position of depositors will be
unchanged by the new arrangements and no action is required of them as a result
of today’s announcement. The depositors will become customers of the Funding
Bank which will be fully capitalized and continue as a regulated bank. In order
to restore the reputation of the Irish Financial System it is essential to
bring finality to the problem of Anglo Irish Bank – our most distressed
institution. The Government’s primary objective in dealing with Anglo Irish
Bank has been to minimise the cost of this distressed bank to the Irish
taxpayer. The Board of Anglo Irish Bank submitted its preferred option to the
Minister and to the European Commission at the end of May for consideration
under State Aid rules. The board’s plan envisaged splitting the bank into an
asset management company and a new good bank. The asset management company
would have managed out over time the bank’s lower quality assets remaining
after the transfers to NAMA. The new good bank would have managed the remaining
share of the loan book, retained the bank’s deposit funding and sought new
lending opportunities to grow the bank. The Minister acknowledges the good
faith and hard work of the board in producing a credible proposal for the
future of the bank. However, the Government has concluded that this plan in its
current form does not now provide the most viable and sustainable solution to
ensure the continued stability of the Irish banking system.
Resolution Proposal
In these circumstances, the Government has decided to opt for a variation of
the board’s restructuring proposal. The Government’s decision does not affect
existing guarantee arrangements. Under the restructuring plan, the Funding Bank
will be a Government-backed/guaranteed specialist deposit bank which will
contain the bank’s deposit book. It will be a stand-alone, regulated bank,
completely separated from Anglo’s loan assets and it will be owned directly by
the Minister for Finance. This bank will not engage in any lending, but will
provide a secure home for Anglo’s depositors and any new customers who wish to
deposit their funds with it. Depositors with the Funding Bank will be
completely insulated from the future performance of the rest of the current
Anglo Irish Bank loan book. The Asset Recovery Bank will also be a licensed
regulated bank. Its dedicated focus will be on the work-out over a period of
time of the assets not being transferred to NAMA in a manner which maximises
the return to the taxpayer.
Costs
The Government believes that it is essential to identify, with as much
certainty as possible, the final cost for the restructuring and resolution of
the bank. This will underpin international financial confidence in Ireland.
Accordingly, the Central Bank will determine the appropriate levels of capital
needed in both institutions. Its decision will be announced by October.
EU Commission
The Department of Finance has conducted intensive discussions with the EU
Commission in recent weeks about the future of Anglo Irish Bank. The Minister
for Finance met Commissioner Almunia last Monday to discuss the issue. A formal
detailed plan is being prepared for submission to the Commission for approval.
The Minister said: “Today’s decision by the Government will provide certainty
about the future of Anglo Irish Bank. Resolution of this, our most distressed
institution, is essential to the promotion of confidence and stability in our
financial system.”
8th September 2010
ENDS
Brian Meenan
Press Office
PH: 6045875
email: [email protected]
‘
This is what a depression is all about — an economy that 33 months after
a recession begins, with zero policy rates, a stuffed central bank sheet, and a
10% deficit-to-GDP ratio, is still in need of government help for its
sustenance.
Petraeus
Speaks Out on Quran Burning...
Endangers
Troops...
Pastor
Says Church Not Deterred...
Hartford
City Council meetings to begin with Muslim prayers...
2
SOLDIERS KILLED IN IRAQ, 9 WOUNDED
ADDICTED
TO STIMULUS: $50,000,000,000 MORE
Dems wary
of WH's huge new spending plan...
Obama
takes aim at Boehner... 'They talk about me like a dog'… [ If the shoe fits ... President
Obama calls African-Americans a ‘mongrel people’ President Obama waded into
the national race debate in an unlikely setting and with an unusual choice of
words: telling daytime talk show hosts that African-Americans are “sort of a
mongrel people.” ]
'They talk about me like a dog'...
FLASHBACK: President-Elect Obama: Mutt 'Like Me'...
'Even
liberal elites concede that Obama's presidency is crumbling'...
BARONE:
Sinking with Obama, Democrats plan political triage...
Muslims
Protest Plans to Burn Quran...
'Death
to America'...
Fears
rise as EU nations aim to raise borrowing...
Roubini:
More than 400 US Banks Will Fail...
'COMBAT
OVER': US TROOPS BATTLE IN BAGHDAD...
Why the Furious Bear Will Come Back - , On Tuesday September 7, 2010, 4:34
pm ‘The Top Ten List has become
a staple of David Letterman's Late Show. We don't quite have the space to
discuss ten reasons why the bear market isn't over (if we did, we'd probably
put you to sleep), but we'll take a crack at a Top Five List. Without further
ado, here it is:
#1: Forget About Earnings
Using
past earnings numbers to project future performance is like basing your
Roulette bet on the numbers that won previously. Old numbers simply don't have
the crystal-ball-like properties needed to foretell the future.
Just
because last quarters earnings were good, doesn't mean the balance of 2010 will
be good. In fact, there is reason to believe that the next earnings season
won't be so rosy.
Retail
sales, which make up about one third of the economy, fell in May and June. This
can't be good for future profits. Additionally, the expectation that taxes will
go up might have moved some companies to pull some of next year's income into
this year.
Even
if earnings continue to rise, the January and April earnings season have shown
that stocks (NYSEArca: VTI - News)
can drop significantly despite great earnings (see chart below). [chart]
#2: Budget Deficits
The
2011 U.S. deficit projection for 2011 was raised from $1.2 trillion to $1.4
trillion. How much is one trillion? For $1 trillion, you buy 40,000,000 VW
Jettas at a price tag of $25,000 each. You could buy 5,574,136 houses at the
median price tag for existing single-family homes ($179,400). You could buy the
star power of LeBron James for the next 50,000 years. You could pay the annual
salaries of all 535 members of the Congress for the next 10,742 years, or the
annual salary of 14.7 million teachers.
Every
entity deals differently with budget deficits. The state of California, a state
with a $1.8 trillion economy, is planning to cut state workers salary. As many
as 200,000 state workers could be reduced to receive minimum wage salaries. It
doesn't take an economics Professor to determine how bad that will be for the
economy.
#3: Banks - Nothing but
Fluff
Back
in 2008, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter considered financials a 'downward
spiral with no stop-loss provision' and recommended to short the financial
sector via the Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (NYSEArca: FAZ
- News).
Even though nothing had changed fundamentally, the newsletter recommended
covering all shorts on March 2nd and going long the financial sector (NYSEArca:
XLF
- News).
The
2009 rally in financial stocks (NYSEArca: IYF
- News)
and the broad market was largely perception driven and relieved the deeply
oversold condition created by the 55% 2007 - 2009 sell off.
Fundamentally, however, nothing had changed.
In
September 2008, President Bush said: 'The house of cards was much bigger and
started to stretch beyond Wall Street. When one card started to go, we worried
about the whole deck going down.'
The
government postponed the collapse of the 'whole deck' thus far. As of recent,
however, some disturbing information has surfaced. Bank of America admitted to
hiding bad assets and Goldman's 82% profit drop shows that the days of fat
trading profits - such as seen in Q3 and Q4 2009 and Q1 2010 - are over.
For
right now, banks (NYSEArca: KBE - News)
have found a new way to 'turn profits.' Banks are cutting their provisions for
bad debts. Yes, at a time when 1 out of 4 Americans have a sub-600 FICO score,
banks are dipping into their reserves to cover bad loans and reporting it as
profit. Banks have reduced their loan loss reserves between 23% and 73%. It
doesn't take an economist to know that taking money from your savings account
and transferring it to your checking account can't be counted as income.
#4 Real Estate
In
late July, the market allegedly rallied because new home sales jumped 24% to
330,000 units in June. We feel the urge to put this number into perspective.
May sales were revised from an original 300,000 units to 267,000 units - this
is an all-time low.
Bouncing
off from the lowest level on record, new home sales did indeed increase 24%. Is
that reason to celebrate though? Chances are the 330,000 will be revised lower
in the future. Regardless, 330,000 homes sold pales in comparison to the 1.4
million homes sold in 2005.
The
U.S. Census Bureau reported that the number of vacant properties, including
foreclosures, residences for sale and vacation homes, reached 18.9 million. It
shouldn't be too long before those bleak fundamentals are reflected in the
performance of real estate ETFs like the iShares DJ US Real Estate ETF
(NYSEArca: IYR - News)
and SPDR DJ REIT ETF (NYSEArca: RWR - News).
The UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (NYSEArca: SRS
- News)
is one of the few ETFs that benefit from falling real estate prices.
#5: Consumer Confidence
During
periods of economic expanse the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index
has averaged a reading above 100. Recessions average a reading of 71. The current
confidence reading is at a dismal 50.4. The chart below paints this sad
picture. [chart]
Consumer
spending is said to make up about three quarters of the economy. How can the
economy recover without participation by the consumer? It can't. That doesn't
mean stocks can't rally temporarily. Such a disconnect between the economy and
Wall Street's dream world tends to be short-lived.
Sentiment Confusion
It
is important to distinguish between consumer sentiment and investor sentiment.
Consumers are the engine of the economy. When consumers are negative and don't
consume, corporate profits fall.
Investor
sentiment moves with the stock market. If stocks are up, sentiment turns
positive. If stocks are down, sentiment turns negative. We have seen this
scenario play out a few times in recent years.
In
2000, extreme optimism sent the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) and technology sector
(NYSEArca: XLK - News)
down as much as 82%. In 2007, extreme optimism sent the financial sector
spiraling by 85%. The S&P 500 (SNP: ^GSPC) and Dow (DJI: ^DJI) dropped more
than 50%.
Just
as pessimism soared to the highest level in years, even decades, and investors
started to throw in the towel, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter issued a
strong buy signal on March 2, 2009. From there on, the major indexes rallied
relentlessly for over a year.
This
rally didn't go unnoticed, in fact by April 2010, optimism had reached another
crescendo. By many measures, optimism surrounding the April highs was more
extreme than in 2000 or 2007.
The
ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned that 'the message conveyed by the
composite bullishness is unmistakably bearish. The pieces are in place for a
major decline.' The ensuing decline reduced the major indexes by nearly 20%.
More
importantly though, the optimism surrounding the April highs is indicative of a
major market top, a top that implies a decline much deeper than the 20% we've
seen thus far. This conclusion is certainly supported by the above-mentioned
Top Five list and many other indicators.
To
many, the market's performance seems random. There are, however, many patterns
and indicators (such as sentiment) that can help investors to significantly
increase their odds of profiting.
The
ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
monitors a variety of fundamental, technical, sentiment and valuation gauges
regularly to formulate a bi-weekly update. We've found that monitoring a
composite of indicators is the best foundation for formulating a high
probability, big picture, forecast’.
Stocks
Get Pummeled AGAIN: Here's What You Need To Know ‘How about a nice 1.1% down day to come back
from summer vacation?
But first, the final scoreboard:
Dow: -107.35
S&P 500: -12.6
NASDAQ: -25
And now, the top stories:
September: In Like a Lion, Out Like
a Lamb DeCiantis: ‘Students of behavioral
finance must have had a field day this past week. In the wake of a month of
dismal economic reports, Wall Street got its risk on with a few better than
expected reports on manufacturing sentiment, home sales, and employment.
Hopium, it appears, is a powerful drug. [ HOPIUM … YEAH! I KIND OF LIKE THAT
METAPHOR WHICH RINGS TRUE! ]
Economists
spent August cautiously lowering their outlook for the second half of the year
as Obama's "recovery summer" failed to bear fruit,
the Federal Reserve failed at both of its twin mandates (stable prices and full
employment), and bullish analysts failed to convince investors that the market
was ready to climb to fresh highs. As a result, stocks ended the worst August
in nine years with rising calls for stimulus and fears of the dreaded
double-dip.
Then
came September. In like a lion, surging nearly 3% on the first trading day of
the month on the heels of a better-than-expected survey by the Institute for
Supply Management of the manufacturing industry. Representing (statistically
speaking) nearly 30% of the US economy, the number was expected to fall after a
series of similar Fed surveys from around the country indicated that American
heavy industry -- that engine of growth over the last two quarters -- was
finally loosing steam. Instead, it leapfrogged every estimate on The Street to
post its first advance since May. Granted the rise was modest, but the surprise
factor flipped the all-important risk switch and a reinvigorated camp of bulls
poured back into the market, convinced that their creeping suspicions about a
slip back into recession were all just a bad dream.
[chart]
Outside
of a few trading irregularities, the data itself forced
the bears to take pause and reflect on the substance of the report. The
economics team at Goldman Sachs may have summarized it best:
"Without question, the report was
better than expected...[but] the details of the report actually reinforce the
case for further slowing in this sector. As shown in Exhibit 2, the gap between
the indexes for new orders and inventories, an important lead indicator of
movements in the composite index and in industrial production, almost
disappeared in the August report. As recently as May, this gap was a robust
20.1 index points. The clear—if uneven—downward trend in this indicator
actually strengthens the case for a decline in the composite index in coming
months. The bottom line: US manufacturing output may still be expanding, but
the risk that these goods are winding up on the shelf has increased."
More telling, however, was the
dissection by semi-permabear David Rosenberg that helps to put the August
print into context:
In a nutshell, ISM did smash consensus
expectations in August but the composition left much to be desired. The coincident
indicators firmed but the categories that actually lead manufacturing activity
softened across the board.
As we said at the outset, the ISM index
was at complete odds with the regional surveys. Philadelphia, New York,
Milwaukee, Richmond and Kansas City were all down. Dallas and Cincinnati were
up. In the past, when we had a 5-to-2 ratio to the downside, the share of the
time ISM managed to eke out an advance was 4%.
It would be wise to lean against the
market's initial dramatic reaction to this data. The ISM orders/inventories
ratio is a decent leading indicator and it sank to 1.033x from 1.065 in July.
1.278x in Julne and 1.441x in May. The hidden nugget in today's report is that
this ratio has decline to levels not seen since February 2009. And the last
time it fell this fast to this type of level was in the September to December
2007 period (1.03x from 1.30x) when once again, there was tremendous confusion
and intense debate over whether it was a recession/soft patch in the economy
and the bear market/corrective phase in equities.
Suffice it to say that in the past 30
years, with eleven observations, ISM dropped to 47x in the three months after
such a decline in the orders/inventory ratio to such a low level as is the case
today. That is the average, the median, and the mode. The highest ISM reading
three months hence was 51.9, so if past is prescient, today's data was likely a
huge headfake.
[chart] The ISM report also
overshadowed another important data release on construction, but we'll get to that
later. The next feather in the bulls' cap was a pair of data points on
residential real estate -- the sick dog of nearly every major developed economy
in the G8. The first revealed a rise in July pending home sales (5.6%) after a
precipitous drop in May (30%) and a further drop in June (2.6%) as an $8,000 tax credit expired.
Analysts collectively expected a drop of 1%. Needless to say the markets were
pleasantly surprised.
A closer look at the data reveals two
key narratives not captured by the popular media or trading desks. First, it's
important to contextualize the "rise" in pending sales by looking at a
longer time series that tells the same story (this particularl series only goes
back to 2005). The graph below speaks for itself.
Second, the reported data may suffer
from a disease common to many of the economic statistics released every day:
Seasonal Adjustment Disorder (SAD). Given the inherent seasonality of the home
buying cycle (higher during the summer when kids aren't in school, lower in
winter when the weather is less than ideal for moving) economists at the
National Association of Realtors make adjustments
for these factors to make monthly comparisons easier.
However, that can sometimes mask changes in the raw data, as was the case with
the August NAR release. As Rosenberg suggests:
While the increase in pending home
sales is encouraging, we did dig through the data and found that the not
seasonally adjusted numbers (the raw numbers) fell by 7%, with declines across
the country. This makes sense as July is usually a slower month for homebuying
activities.
We wonder if there is a chance that the
seasonal adjustment factors could be overstating the monthly increase given
that we have seen such huge volatility in the housing numbers in the recent
year making the seasonal adjustment process more difficult. Recall that
Standard and Poor’s issued a note about the Case-Shiller home price index
saying that “the turmoil in the housing market in the last few years has
generated unusual movements that are easily mistaken for shifts in the normal
seasonal patterns, resulting in larger seasonal adjustments and misleading
results.
Another data point that drew a lot of
bullish attention was Tuesday's housing release on prices. After a few dismal
years, any news that isn't a decrease is more than welcome by just about
everyone, rich and poor, domestic and international. Tuesday's Case-Shiller
print was no exception, as home prices "jumped"...by a mind-numbing 1%...two months
ago in June... on a rolling three-month basis (i.e. April through
June).....still reflecting the last dying gasp of the home buyers' tax credit.
Again, a little context:
And how the markets rallied.
Friday's bulls, reinvigorated after a
powerful (and low volume) start to the month, launched their
attack on a new front: employment. Long a forgotten weapon in the bulls'
arsenal, private payrolls climbed by a larger-than-expected 67,000 in
August, beating expectations for a 45,000 gain. At that rate, it would only
take a little under 9 years to rehire the 7,000,000 people who lost their jobs
during the recession but have yet to find new work (assuming no increase in
population). Only 7,000 permanent government jobs were shed during the month,
though economists expect that number to rise as state and local governments
face crippling budget deficits. The other 114,000
new claims represent the last major layoff of temporary census workers, who rejoin
an army of job seekers that have collectively become one of America's most
structural economic challenges.
Obviously plenty of reason for the
markets to celebrate.
Now for the bad news.
On the same day as the ISM
Manufacturing survey was released to considerable fanfare, July's construction
spending was released by the Census Bureau and confirmed a worsening
year-over-year decline of nearly 11%. Month over month, spending was down 1% in
July and suggests another downward revision to third quarter GDP.
More from Goldman:
Construction outlays dropped 1% in July
from a level that was revised down a whopping 2.7%. This dismal construction
report flew below the market's radar, as it normally does since it usually
comes out alongside the ISM manufacturing survey. One might dub construction
outlays the Rodney Dangerfield ("I don't get no respect") of US
economic indicators. Of all the data released this week, it has the most direct
bearing on the real GDP "bean count" next to the monthly consumption
report. Hence, since consumption was only modestly better than expected, a case
can be made that third-quarter growth might actually be lower now than we thought
a week ago despite all the upside surprises.
[chart]
Wednesday also revealed that another
source of bullish sentiment in July may have been a little premature: auto sales. After months of steep retail incentives and easy
year-over-year growth comparisons, cash- and credit-strapped
Americans returned to a more cautious consumption path. As the second largest
leveraged purchase in a typical household, auto sales reflected that shift.
Only Chrysler, the runt of the litter, managed to squeak out an
increase in sales in an otherwise sluggish retail environment.
[chart]
Finally, on Friday the latest ISM Non-Manufacturing
survey was released and was every bit as disappointing as everyone expected the
manufacturing survey to be. The index slowed to 51.5% in August from 54.3% in
July and 55.4% in May, and its components were even less rosy. From Econoday:
A new optimism after today's jobs
report -- not so fast. The ISM non-manufacturing report shows broad and
deeper-than-expected slowing. New orders at 52.4 are down more than four points
in August for the slowest rate of month-to-month growth so far this year.
Employment, which in this report includes government workers, is signaling
contraction, at 48.2 for a nearly three point decline for the worst reading
since January. The composite headline index at 51.5 is down exactly three
points for what is also the worst reading since January. Backlog orders are
basically flat, export orders are down, deliveries are showing less delays, and
general business activity is slower. Imports did rise as did raw material
prices.
[chart]
In response, the market cut its morning
gains in half, only to rally into the close to retest the morning highs. What
makes this week's schizophrenic ISM interpretations so dangerous is that the
upside surprise on Wednesday was based on data that captures roughly a third of
the economy, while Friday's non-manufacturing disappointment approximates
activity in roughly two-thirds of the economy. So of course the markets ended
the week up 3%.
Once again, Goldman's analysts try to
walk a fine line between sell-side optimism and buy-side skepticism:
On the whole, it's been a good week for
US economic data...reports on factory activity, pending home sales, and the
labor market have surprised to the high side. In fact, some of these readings
have benefited from positive judgmental adjustments, as factors not readily
apparent in the headline indicator have also been better than expected.
However, this does not mean that the outlook for US economic activity has
improved, except insofar as the better-than-expected news eases market worries
about a "double dip". At least some - perhaps most - of the
improvement ... reflects what Paul Krugman once called, in a much different context,
"The Age of Diminished Expectations". In the current setting, we note
that several prominent forecasters have marked down forecasts of economic
activity and therefore may also have lowered their sights on the higher
frequency indicators.
Interpretive bias is inevitable when
any new data is released. Optimists will quickly find a silver lining in any
dark cloud, and pessimists will pick apart even the most robust reports of
growth and tease out a bearish narrative. Investors should think twice when
these competing forces fall out of balance -- when markets are as unabashedly
bearish as they were in late 2008, or as unapologetically bullish as the were
during the second half of 2009.
If the first few days of September are
any indication of how the month will unfold, we may be back on the perma-bull
track. When disappointing data is released, investors cheer for more fiscal and
monetary stimulus. When data is surprisingly positive, investors cheer at the
prospect of a sustainable, organic recovery. As we saw in early 2010, this
"heads I win, tails you lose" mentality is particularly vulnerable to
rapid and substantial correction, and a September that entered as a lion may
finish the third quarter as a lamb.
Disclosure:
Long safety,
short risk (no specific stocks mentioned)’
Correlation
and the S&P 500 [ I really think this author was a bit too
diffident in talking about the computerized churn-and-earn scam which eats away
at the real economy , but the discussion highlights at least this immense
problem area ] ‘The immense correlation between the market, and almost all risk
assets on Earth is not a new subject to FMMF readers. [Jun 30, 2009: Bloomberg - Correlation Among Asset Classes
Highest Ever] I beat this dead horse monthly, mostly out of abject
frustration. [Sep 2, 2010: Why Bother with Individual Stocks in the
Perfectly Correlated Market?] I don't have an issue when the market
is up 2-3% or 90% of stocks move in the same direction, it is all these days
the market is up or down 0.7% when it drives a person nuts.
Friday,
for example, every position I had but one was up. As I type this every position
but one is down.
This
correlation madness started to become an issue in 2007 as we were told that
hedgies control 40%(ish) of each day's trading volume. As I said then, since
mutual and pension funds are relatively staid players, the 'fast money' is the
marginal buyer, and 'hot money' in the form of hedge funds - especially of the
quant variety - are the marginal buyer. The problem now is they seem to be the
only buyer as equity fund withdrawals continue on pace as the retail guy floods
into bond funds.
So
we have a market dominated by computers trading to computers, all using related
algo's - happy, happy, joy joy. Now we hear things such as 60-70% of trades
flow through these players... and since EFTs are the weapon of choice,
computerized trading of EFTs have taken over the market. [Jun 29, 2010: Correlations Among Asset Classes Reach Ever
Higher Extremes as HAL9000 Algos Dominate Life] The SPY ETF is now about 9% of ALL volume as of
last check, and we had a time about 7-8 months ago where Citigroup (C), AIG (AIG),
Fannie (FNMA.OB), and Freddie (FMCC.OB) were 40% of all volume. Pathetic.
Frankly,
it makes the market a frustrating and 'less fun' place. The market used to be a
four-dimensional jigsaw puzzle, comprised of fundamental, technical,
psychological, and 'animal spirits.' Now it's just the dumbed down
two-dimensional Etch a Sketch. Shake it at 4 pm every day, because it has no
memory from day to day. Sure you can adjust (in fact you must adjust) if you
plan to stick around, but when everything is a 1:1 correlation, it simply
reduces the market to 'stoopid' and coming in each day, checking your brain at
the door, and staring at the S&P 500 chart trying to guess where it will be
in 3 hours, 3 days, and 3 weeks gets to be boring. [Jul 15, 2010: WSJ - Correlation Soars on S&P 500
Shares]
But
this is the casino market we have built, and I don't see anything
changing anytime soon. The other issue is it makes it so much more difficult to
outperform the market. Surely there are a handful of stock names that still
outperform (or underperform) but with almost everything swaying in the exact
same direction as the market, creating alpha is difficult. Most of the
performance nowadays is not about stocks, but due to calling turns in the
greater market - increasingly hard to position for as you scale in size.
Especially when the majority of the turns are due to binary reactions to
economic reports or Fed announcements - it's simply placing your bets on red
and black, not a stock market.
I've
written about said frustration in the past amongst the "human"
hedgies, [July 8, 2010: Hedge Funds "Frozen in
Headlights" as BiPolar Market with 1:1 Correlation in All Things Not Named
U.S. Treasuries Causes Confusion] and this is taking a toll on the
mutual fund managers as well.
One
of my big beefs with the mutual fund industry is that many players - especially
in the bigger funds - are closed index funds. They all have super cool names
but almost anything in 'large cap value' or 'large cap growth' were hybrid
closet indexers. They basically flip an Exxon (XOM), Intel (INTC), or a Microsoft (MSFT), with a Walmart (WMT), Verizon (VZ), or a Cisco Systems (CSCO) -- change the order, weighting, and
indeed are able to charge a nice fee for doing nothing other than being the
S&P 500 with a small twist. I cannot tell you how many 401k plans I
reviewed for people, where I went to look at the top 10 holdings of the 12-15
mutual fund choices and 90% of them were identical (just in different order in
weightings!). The statistic of 0.99 correlation amongst the S&P 500 and
many of the largest funds is quite remarkable and points to my 'closet index'
beef, but with the mechanics of our new paradigm market, it has taken it to a
whole new level. It also says a lot of people are wasting their money paying
management fees for what is an S&P 500 ETF clone.
That
said, even with the closet index situation that has been growing for a decade+
you used to be able to try to outperform if you plied your trade in small or
medium caps (or international markets), but the HFT + EFT = GLEE environment we
now live in has made that increasingly moot, since most of those stocks now
move in unison as well. If your stock is not in a major EFT it generally sits
ignored with low volume... if it IS in an ETF than it doesnt matter the company
specifics - as long as the algo's are buying (or selling that ETF) as flavor of
the day, every component in that ETF is a winner (or loser)! Stoopid is as
stoopid does in the market with 1st grade logic.
One
gentleman I've admired for many years is Will Danoff at Fidelity Contrafund. [Sep 9, 2008: Will Danoff in Kiplinger Magazine]
His fund has been huge in size for years on end (I'm talking multiples the size
of the biggest hedge funds - Contrafund is now up to $62 BILLION), yet he has
been able to somehow outperform his peer group (and until the past 5 years the
S&P 500) by a wide margin, mostly by being somewhat contrarian. This
despite holding many positions and not being extremely concentrated - a feat I
find quite remarkable since once you start owning 200-250 positions I don't
know how you can beat the market over time. (Contrafund owns 445 positions as of last quarter!) Danoff is highlighted in
this piece, which is why I mention him - he is no dummy.
Via
Bloomberg:
Disclosure:
None’
Obama
defends policies and offers new proposal (Washington Post) [ No you can’t wobama … b*** s*** everyone
again! ‘Yes, we can … NOT!’ That dog don’t hunt anymore wobama. Drudgereport:
Obama
takes aim at Boehner... 'They talk about me like a dog'… [ If the shoe fits, wobama … keep
gearing up Afghanistan … sounds like a plan]... ]Faced with twin challenges of boosting the economy
and saving congressional seats, the president tries to do a little of both on
Labor Day.
Krugman:
It's All Downhill From Here Cullen Roche Love
him or hate him Paul Krugman has been awfully right with regards to the macro
picture in the last few years. He’s one of the rare economists who had the
foresight to see the housing bubble and the likelihood of economic downturn
that would result from it. Krugman recently caused a stir when he said the US
economy was headed for the third depression. He isn’t back down from that outlook:
I’ve had a couple of conversations
lately with people who follow politics and public affairs, but aren’t that
close to the economic discussion — and I’ve discovered that there are two
comforting delusions still out there.
Delusion #1 is that we’re on the road
to recovery, just more slowly than we’d like; to be fair, the White House keeps
saying this.
But it’s not at all true. GDP is
growing below potential; employment, even if you focus just on private
employment, is growing more slowly than the working-age population. If you ask
how long it will take us to return to, say, 5 percent unemployment on the
current track, the answer is forever.
Delusion #2 is the belief that the
stimulus may yet do the trick, because there are still substantial funds
unspent. I tried to deal with this last year. The level of GDP depends not on
total funds spent, but on the rate at which funds are being spent, which has
already peaked; GDP growth on the rate of change in the rate at which funds are
being spent, which peaked last year. It’s all downhill from here.
If you can ignore the schizophrenic
market for just a second it’s hard to reject Krugman’s macro outlook. The
private sector has been running on fumes since the debt bubble burst in 2007.
The government’s extraordinary actions helped bolster the economy, but merely
papered over what was a very weak private sector. As we see the government step
aside it’s difficult to imagine that the weakness at the private sector won’t
again be exposed for what it really is.
Government
Bonds: Can the U.S. Maintain Confidence in Its Debt? Cliff Kule Massive,
unsustainable government debt - it's everywhere. Especially in America. At some
point, will the world begin to lose confidence in America's growing debt? Will
interest rates then skyrocket? Will a Greek-style crisis in U.S. government
bonds then ensue? Is there any way out?
America can
claim its debt problems are not as bad as some countries. But that ignores some
important points:
Is there any
way for America to maintain the confidence?
One way would be for America to become fiscally
prudent, simply stop creating money and debt, let the massive deflationary
forces of credit contraction and consumer de-leveraging run their natural
course. This would cleanse the system of toxic debt. It would also clearly and
immediately cause another Great Depression.
Another way would be for America to simply print more
money, create more debt, blindly following Keynesian economics that brought us
into this mess in the first place. Attempt to "inflate away" the debt
without losing the confidence of investors that buy the U.S. government bonds.
This has been tried many times throughout history with disastrous consequences.
The chart below (courtesy of Economic Edge) shows how
increases in debt are recently giving less and less “umph” to economic GDP
growth to the point now of negative GDP growth. Eric Sprott has produced an
excellent study suggesting that 9 cents of "growth" is coming
with every dollar we go deeper into debt. Bud Conrad has produced
calculations that are equally discouraging. This massive debt-driven money
printing would therefore likely lead some form of hyperinflation in a futile
attempt to stimulate economic growth.
This leaves one other option.... a direction that is
hardly ever considered... a policy tool still waiting to be tried!... America
could return to the gold standard... Why? Because the gold standard system
would back the U.S. dollar by real money, and enforce a responsible discipline
of fiscal and monetary policy that Congress and the Federal Reserve cannot
currently do. In turn this would maintain confidence in America's debt.
“The gold
standard has one tremendous virtue: the quantity of the money supply, under the
gold standard, is independent of the policies of governments and political
parties. This is its advantage. It is a form of protection against spendthrift
governments.” Ludwig von
Mises (1881-1973)
Monetary systems on a gold standard system cannot
increase money supply as needed. Under a gold standard system, paper money is
backed by something of real tangible value. The total amount of gold limits the
total amount of paper money that can be created. New money must be backed by
additional gold. Omnis’ Jim Rickards suggests this possible solution:
a “gold backed currency at a non-deflationary price… sound money leads to sound
growth and the creation of real, not illusory, wealth.”
In 1971, President Nixon simply severed the tie
between gold and U.S. dollars. As he closed the gold “window,” Nixon proclaimed
“We are all Keynesians now” (referring to the Keynesian economic school of
thought where gold has no function). Austrian School economists and Cliff Küle
would like to say – We are not all Keynesians.
Did severing the link between the dollar and gold
work to strengthen confidence in the U.S.? Please consider:
Until the greenback is once again made as good as
gold, many millions of people will persist in believing that the barbarous
relic is still a better bet.
Recently speaking about Goldman Sachs’ problems at
the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, former President Bill
Clinton said,
There is a bigger problem here… too much of our
growth was in finance ever since went off the gold standard.
The dollar “tie” to gold might be “re-tied” just as
simply as it was untied. In a certain respect, America never really went off the
gold standard. The tie between gold and U.S. dollar was simply adjusted to 0%.
So, simply adjust it back. What tie would be needed today to restore America
back to the gold standard? Let’s do the simple math.
Official
figures for the total amount of gold reserves held by the U.S. Treasury are
8133.5 tonnes of gold. This gold is owned by all Americans and is held in trust
by the government for the people. Given that 1 metric tonne is 32150.746 ounces,
that amounts to:
8133.5 tonnes x 32150.746 ounces/tonne =
261498092.591 ounces
If we look at recent Federal
Reserve data, we note that the total U.S. M1 seasonally adjusted money
supply is at $1712.2 Billion of currency. Therefore if we were to take the
total currency and back it by the total amount of gold, this would give:
$1712.2 billion divided by 261498092.591 = US$6547
per ounce
There you have it – if the U.S. were to devalue the U.S.
dollar, setting gold at 6550 U.S. dollars per ounce of gold, the country could
position to go back on the gold standard. Global confidence in the U.S. dollar
and in America's debt would be maintained. It may be as simple as finding the
right price for the government gold holdings to give "backing" to
every dollar in circulation.
$6550/ounce is approximately the current value
necessary to give "gold backing" to the current level of M1 money
supply. If the U.S. wanted to expand the money supply further to stimulate the
economy, it would need to set a new price for its gold holdings which is even
higher than $6550/ounce or somehow get more gold. The U.S. could then be in a
position to expand money supply as necessary to stimulate growth and able to
extend credit to other nations. This is an essential ingredient to restoring
confidence and keeping the title of reserve currency. After all, a reserve
currency should be able to extend credit to nations in need, not be in need of
credit from other nations.
As Jim Rickards
states, this one-to-one ratio backing of gold with the U.S. dollar
would comfortably support a broader U.S. money supply
on a one-to-one ratio and maintain confidence in the dollar and U.S. sovereign
debt.
Perhaps only then could global confidence in the U.S.
dollar and in U.S. debt be maintained – if not, either a deflationary
depression or a hyperinflationary depression could be in store as confidence
wanes with increasing levels of public debt.
Back to the Future
Nick Barisheff, President and CEO of Bullion
Management Group, emphasizes
that gold is money:
Gold is not and never has been a currency. Gold is
something entirely different and far more valuable. It is money.
Cliff Küle suggests that to maintain confidence in
its debt, America must bring back the gold standard, anchoring the U.S. dollar
back to real money - gold, as Article 1 of the Constitution of the United
States commits it to be.
Disclosure: No positions
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a
Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012).
National / World
Drudgereport: Petraeus
Speaks Out on Quran Burning...
Endangers
Troops...
Pastor
Says Church Not Deterred...
Hartford
City Council meetings to begin with Muslim prayers...
2
SOLDIERS KILLED IN IRAQ, 9 WOUNDED
ADDICTED
TO STIMULUS: $50,000,000,000 MORE
Dems wary
of WH's huge new spending plan...
Obama
takes aim at Boehner... 'They talk about me like a dog'… [ If the shoe fits ... President
Obama calls African-Americans a ‘mongrel people’ President Obama waded into
the national race debate in an unlikely setting and with an unusual choice of
words: telling daytime talk show hosts that African-Americans are “sort of a
mongrel people.” ]
'They talk about me like a dog'...
FLASHBACK: President-Elect Obama: Mutt 'Like Me'...
Muslims
Protest Plans to Burn Quran...
'Death
to America'...
Fears
rise as EU nations aim to raise borrowing...
Roubini:
More than 400 US Banks Will Fail...
'COMBAT
OVER': US TROOPS BATTLE IN BAGHDAD...
Obama
to call for $100B business tax credit (Washington
Post) [ Just in the nick of time … riiiiight! … for the elections … you know,
‘talking points’ though of no economic effect
… and to make america, only slightly more bankrupt ... at this point,
who’s counting? ] Under mounting pressure to intensify his focus on the economy
ahead of the midterm elections, president seeks to boost research and
development
Afghan
bankers' assets frozen (Washington Post) Authorities bar sale of
properties held by principal owners, but freeze excludes Karzai's brother [
Yeah … don’t want to get him too angry … he’s too valuable to the heroin trade
resurrected by america. ].
Small
businesses feel squeezed by Obama policies (Washington Post) [ Well, the
grim reality for them is that they just don’t pony-up those big campaign
dollars like those non-performing corporate welfare recipient conglomerates /
big businesses. The other reality, reiterated again here is that everybody’s on
to the fact that wobama’s great at delivering speeches, albeit teleprompted,
but as we now all know, he doesn’t deliver. It’s rather pathetic to see that
old loser and jingoistic fake war hero fraud, senile, incompetent mccain who
never saw a new war opportunity he didn’t like despite america’s defacto
bankruptcy (a policy the post-election wobama’s promulgated) because of same
being given air time as some sort of wise old sage when he’s really just an
old, stale joke who would have been even worse than wobama but not by much,
failed presidencies both. ]
Mark
Hulbert's Take: What Are the Odds of a September Decline? at Seeking
Alpha (Fri, Sep 3) ‘Some of the work Mark Hulbert does is nothing
more than telling us what the gurus in the universe he follows are thinking
individually and, more frequently, in the aggregate. But of late, he also has
been doing some far more interesting analysis in the “Yale Hirsch” mode – and
the results are not satisfying if you are a bull.
The bullish
case seems to rest on two platforms: (1) August was really bad therefore
September should be good in reaction to that, and (2) “Everyone” now expects
the current crop of politicos to suffer major setbacks in November and, since
the market is a predictive mechanism, investors are positioning themselves
today for what they believe will be wonderful news post-November (like an
extension of the current tax rates and a reduction in pork-barrel spending by
irresponsible pols.)
The Dow
rallied more than 300 points the first two days of September so, making the
usual straight-line assumption, bulls believe that today is the day to get
invested, Hmmm. Let’s examine each of the above platforms in turn.
Quoting Mr.
Hulbert’s conclusions based upon his historical analysis:
I have good news and bad news when
it comes to slicing and dicing the historical data as it pertains to September.
The good news is that it is
possible, by carefully reading the statistical tea leaves, to get advance
insight into whether any given month is likely to do better or worse than
average.
The bad news: Those tea leaves provide no such hope
that this September will be able to beat its historical reputation as being
awful for stocks.
His research shows that since 1896 (the year the Dow
Jones Industrial Average was created,) the Dow has lost an average of 1.15% in September. The average gain for all other months was 0.71%. Worse, a look at the
historical record shows that Septembers did not show a 1.15% decline following
a bad August – they showed a 2.7% decline! Typically, when August is down, as
goes August, so goes September -- only twice as bad as usual.
Worse than that, Hulbert notes, “During each of the
past nine decades... September's rank relative to other months in terms of
performance was never higher than ninth. It was dead last in five of those nine
decades -- including the most recent one.”
He adds a final bit of gasoline to this bonfire by
noting that the CBOE's Volatility Index (VIX) is relatively low going into
September, the month tends to do better. Uh-oh. The VIX at the end of August
was quite a bit higher than 20. (And for those who have followed our comments
on the VXX and VXZ ETFs in the past, we
believe they have now entered an excellent buy area.)
As for the second platform, the market seldom reacts
favorably to the same news twice. I’ve been writing for two years that the
pendulum will swing, that the 2008 election was a rejection of the
guns-and-butter policy of the previous administration and was little different
than the voters’ rejection of President Johnson’s guns and butter policies in
1968 (thrusting Richard Nixon into office with disastrous consequences we hope
are not repeated this time around), and that mid-term elections are almost
always about mitigating the euphoria of the previous presidential election.
This is not news!
The rally of September 1st and 2nd
may have occurred as a result of Johnny-come-latelies reaching the conclusion
Wall Street reached about the mid-term elections weeks or months ago. If that
is the case, I imagine the smart money is rubbing their hands with glee and
using this rally to lay on bigger short positions.
The current rally was ostensibly about the fact that
the Chinese Purchasing Managers Index rose to 51.7 in August from 51.2 in July,
followed by the news that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index improved from 55.5
in July to 56.3 in August. I don't see it – these incremental numbers are
nothing but decimal dust in the grand scheme of things! Easily manipulated by
the bureaucrats in charge of such numbers, the “improvement” is so small as to
be barely measurable – and to raise not a stir among the media when they are
“revised” from “up 0.5%” to “down 0.1%” or whatever in another month.
The other economic numbers that form the backdrop to
this rally include: Canada’s GDP fell to an annual rate of 2% in the 2nd
quarter, down from 5.8% in Q1; auto sales absolutely plunged in the U.S. and
around the world; there was a continued drop in U.S. construction spending;
there were declining retail sales in Euro nations; and the ADP employment
report indicating that we didn’t just grow jobs at too slow a pace to cover all
the new workers entering the labor force, but we actually lost some 10,000
private sector jobs! Government is still hiring, of course, but we must always
remember: the private sector is income, government is overhead. That doesn’t
mean we don’t need certain government workers – what hellish existence would it
be without fire and police protection, or good teachers to educate our
children? But it is still overhead even if we collectively choose to pay for it
in order to enhance our safety or literacy.
Bottom line: September tends to do worse in years
that August has been bad. August was bad. The news of the mid-term elections is
already old news and will most likely follow the historical path of all
mid-term elections. We will return more to the center. And the good news to
propel the market higher is likely to be short-lived. Clearly, we aren’t out of
the woods yet. If the market is in a news-dominated phase, we are likely in big
trouble.
For our clients we are stressing safety, with inverse
ETF protection from the likes of ProShares Short S&P 500 (SH),
ProShares Short Russell 200 (RWM), ProShares UltraShort Nasdaq (QID)
and ProShares Short MSCI Emerging Markets (EUM). (If the US and Europe
aren’t consuming, who is going to order stuff from the emerging nations? They
will fall if our markets and economies fall…) We are also buying VXX and VXZ
and are keeping our bond positions short and inflation-resistant, as we do with
WIP, TIP,
BWZ,
and MINT. Finally, we own
some special situations in precious metals, energy and agriculture. (See
previous articles for specifics, including this
and this...)
AP Business
Highlights [ Wow! ‘Private
employers hired more workers over the past three months than first thought’ …
Riiiiight! Especially with 2 months to the mid-term elections (time for federal
term limits and the abolition of lifetime appointments for anything owing to
the nation’s defacto bankruptcy), desperation with fake / false data / reports;
and, that negative but better than expected thing as unemployment rate inches
up to 9.6% (the real unemployment rate is approximately 20+% with that ‘stopped
looking’ fudge-factor giving them the false positive). I mean, come on! Private
reports on non-farm payrolls down each week, but suddenly from out of nowhere
defying virtually all economist estimates the ue claims are up, and prior gov’t
reports revised up. This is a great opportunity to sell / take profits!
]Companies add 67K workers, but jobless rate rises WASHINGTON (AP) -- Private
employers hired more workers over the past three months than first thought, a
glimmer of hope for the weak economy ahead of the Labor Day weekend. But the
unemployment rate rose because not enough jobs were created to absorb the
growing number of people looking for work ...’
Stocks Churning in Trading Range: Dave's Daily ‘This will be short. Perhaps the image [old lady (wall street)
churning (scam) butter (stocks)] and title should suffice as a summary of the
week. After all, I indicated "possibly" I might post on Friday. The
current market is a reprise of early July's rally from June's selloff. Now into
September the August lows are reversing. How durable will this be is anyone's
guess. Economic data was greeted with bullish enthusiasm as markets were
oversold after Monday's slump. The unemployment data was just about the same as
previous once you look deeper inside the data. The birth/death model is just an
estimate made out of thin air. Once you view the data ex-that, things look
pretty grim. There are very few players involved this week and perhaps in the
future. It's interesting many major banks are closing their proprietary trading
operations. This removes another important prop to markets as retail investors
have left the scene. Further, for stock mutual funds, the exodus continues for
the 16th straight week. Cash balances at these funds are at historic
lows of 3% as the outflow continues. Curiously, short interest is also at an
all-time low near 4% meaning few for bulls to squeeze. We only have hedge funds
and overseas investors in the game. And, it does seem like a game more than
ever now. Bulls jumped on the oversold conditions on Wednesday as a DeMark 9
was registered on Tuesday for most major market daily charts then. A rally on
that technical condition was no surprise ...’
Important
Manufacturing Indicators Look Weak at Seeking Alpha (Fri, Sep 3)
Consumption
Contraction Approaches 2008 Low at Seeking Alpha (Fri, Sep 3)
Beware
the Big Red Leading Indicator at Seeking Alpha (Fri, Sep 3)
Small
Investors Turns More Bullish (contrarian indicator) at Seeking
Alpha (Fri, Sep 3)
Unemployment
Rate Edges up to 9.6% at TheStreet.com (Fri, Sep 3)
AAII
Sentiment Survey: Bullish Sentiment Improves, But Bearishness Still Dominates
at Seeking Alpha (Fri, Sep 3)
Monthly
Markets Review: Risk Aversion Rises in August as Double Dip Concerns Grow at
Seeking Alpha (Fri, Sep 3) ‘…The ECB keeping rates at a record low
of 1% and zero interest policies in the US and in most western economies
remains bullish for gold as the opportunity cost, the lack of yield, of owning
gold is negligible, especially with inflation having picked up recently in many
economies internationally. Further signs of burgeoning food inflation were seen
in the surge in the price of global meat prices which have risen to 20 year
highs … (chart) September can be the 'cruelest month' for stocks. Conversely,
more years than not, precious metals prices perform well in September and many
analysts reckon this year will not disappoint those owning gold. Given the
uncertain financial and economic outlook, it is important that investors remain
diversified with allocations to cash, short dated government bonds,
international equities, and gold…’
National / World
Drudgereport: UNEMPLOYMENT
JUMPS TO 9.6%...
Economy
LOST 283,000 jobs during 'Recovery
Summer' months...
NPR:
'Recovery Summer' Ends With Economic
Pothole...
Labor
Sec. Declares: 'There are jobs out there'...
TREASURY
HEAD RUSHES BACK FROM VACATION; AIDES SEARCH FOR OTHER JOBS PACKAGE...
120
Days to Go Until Largest Tax Hikes in History...
President
Claims Job Creation; Doesn't Mention Net Job Loss of 54K...
HE
NEEDS A VACATION: OBAMA TO CAMP DAVID...
Taxpayers
to face initial loss on GM IPO; Treasury to sell first shares below
break-even...
David Rosenberg: The U.S. Is Suffering a Japanese-Style
Depression Burrows
‘Presciently bearish David Rosenberg, the chief economist and strategist at
Gluskin Sheff who called the global meltdown back when he was still at Merrill
Lynch, isn't budging from his view that the U.S. is in a depression
-- and a prolonged, Japanese-style one at that. Rosenberg reminded clients on Wednesday that here we are 33
months after the Great Recession began, and yet home prices, gross domestic product, credit outstanding,
organic personal income and employment are all lower
now than they were prior to the onset of the downturn. "We can understand
that this is not exactly cocktail conversation, but this is a Japanese-style
(even worse perhaps) modern-day depression," Rosenberg writes. "It's
not the 1930s because soup lines have been replaced with unemployment insurance
lines -- over 10 million checks and for up to 99 weeks. The poor souls who
endured the bitter 1930s had no such relief." And as for the U.S.'s
vaunted labor flexibility and superior demographics saving it from a Japanese
sort of lost decade or two, well, Rosenberg is having
none of it. "Government policy and the record number of people upside-down
on their mortgage have seriously impaired the flexibility of the labor
market," Rosenberg writes. And the U.S. birth rate has declined for two
consecutive years and is at its lowest level in a century, he notes. Of course,
it's no surprise to buy-and-hold investors that U.S. equities have already
notched a lost decade and then some. Take a look at this 10-year chart of the
S&P 500 ($INX): See full article from DailyFinance: http://srph.it/aZTYr7’
Forced / Distressed /
Underwater pending / foreclosure sales the impetus for short-covering /
suckers’ rally on light and hence, easily manipulated, pre-holiday computerized
trade volume. The government, desperate and defacto bankrupt, is back to their
fake / false data reporting; you know, the kind that spurs the fraudulent wall
street rallies and gets revised by 35% + down later as with GDP just recently,
but the wall street frauds will get their commissions again on the way
down. YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]: ‘…Early participants had little reason to
alter their mood since the initial jobless claims count for the week ended
August 28 came in at 472,000, which is in on par with the 475,000 initial
claims that had been widely expected. The latest tally was also little changed
from the prior week total of 478,000. Continuing claims saw a more substantial
slip as they fell to 4.46 million from 4.48 million. Final nonfarm productivity
readings for the second quarter also offered little surprise. Productivity in
the quarter fell 1.8%, which is in stride with the 1.7% decline that had been
widely forecasted. Unit labor costs for the quarter increased 1.1%, as
expected. Pending home sales for July provided participants with a positive
surprise. They posted a 5.2% monthly increase, which contrasts with the call
for no change from economists polled by Briefing.com. That data overshadowed
news that factory orders for July increased 0.1% instead of 0.3% as had been
widely expected…’ Stocks
rise on economic hopes ahead of payrolls (Reuters) Riiiiight! Sounds like a
plan!
Mark
Hulbert's Take: What Are the Odds of a September Decline? at Seeking
Alpha (Fri, Sep 3) ‘Some of the work Mark Hulbert does is nothing
more than telling us what the gurus in the universe he follows are thinking
individually and, more frequently, in the aggregate. But of late, he also has
been doing some far more interesting analysis in the “Yale Hirsch” mode – and the
results are not satisfying if you are a bull.
The bullish
case seems to rest on two platforms: (1) August was really bad therefore
September should be good in reaction to that, and (2) “Everyone” now expects
the current crop of politicos to suffer major setbacks in November and, since
the market is a predictive mechanism, investors are positioning themselves
today for what they believe will be wonderful news post-November (like an
extension of the current tax rates and a reduction in pork-barrel spending by
irresponsible pols.)
The Dow
rallied more than 300 points the first two days of September so, making the
usual straight-line assumption, bulls believe that today is the day to get
invested, Hmmm. Let’s examine each of the above platforms in turn.
Quoting Mr.
Hulbert’s conclusions based upon his historical analysis:
I have good news and bad news when
it comes to slicing and dicing the historical data as it pertains to September.
The good news is that it is
possible, by carefully reading the statistical tea leaves, to get advance
insight into whether any given month is likely to do better or worse than
average.
The bad news: Those tea leaves provide no such hope
that this September will be able to beat its historical reputation as being
awful for stocks.
His research shows that since 1896 (the year the Dow
Jones Industrial Average was created,) the Dow has lost an average of 1.15% in September. The average gain for all other months was 0.71%. Worse, a look at the
historical record shows that Septembers did not show a 1.15% decline following
a bad August – they showed a 2.7% decline! Typically, when August is down, as
goes August, so goes September -- only twice as bad as usual.
Worse than that, Hulbert notes, “During each of the
past nine decades... September's rank relative to other months in terms of
performance was never higher than ninth. It was dead last in five of those nine
decades -- including the most recent one.”
He adds a final bit of gasoline to this bonfire by
noting that the CBOE's Volatility Index (VIX) is relatively low going into
September, the month tends to do better. Uh-oh. The VIX at the end of August
was quite a bit higher than 20. (And for those who have followed our comments
on the VXX and VXZ ETFs in the past, we
believe they have now entered an excellent buy area.)
As for the second platform, the market seldom reacts
favorably to the same news twice. I’ve been writing for two years that the
pendulum will swing, that the 2008 election was a rejection of the
guns-and-butter policy of the previous administration and was little different
than the voters’ rejection of President Johnson’s guns and butter policies in
1968 (thrusting Richard Nixon into office with disastrous consequences we hope
are not repeated this time around), and that mid-term elections are almost
always about mitigating the euphoria of the previous presidential election.
This is not news!
The rally of September 1st and 2nd
may have occurred as a result of Johnny-come-latelies reaching the conclusion
Wall Street reached about the mid-term elections weeks or months ago. If that
is the case, I imagine the smart money is rubbing their hands with glee and
using this rally to lay on bigger short positions.
The current rally was ostensibly about the fact that
the Chinese Purchasing Managers Index rose to 51.7 in August from 51.2 in July,
followed by the news that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index improved from 55.5
in July to 56.3 in August. I don't see it – these incremental numbers are
nothing but decimal dust in the grand scheme of things! Easily manipulated by
the bureaucrats in charge of such numbers, the “improvement” is so small as to
be barely measurable – and to raise not a stir among the media when they are
“revised” from “up 0.5%” to “down 0.1%” or whatever in another month.
The other economic numbers that form the backdrop to
this rally include: Canada’s GDP fell to an annual rate of 2% in the 2nd
quarter, down from 5.8% in Q1; auto sales absolutely plunged in the U.S. and
around the world; there was a continued drop in U.S. construction spending;
there were declining retail sales in Euro nations; and the ADP employment
report indicating that we didn’t just grow jobs at too slow a pace to cover all
the new workers entering the labor force, but we actually lost some 10,000
private sector jobs! Government is still hiring, of course, but we must always
remember: the private sector is income, government is overhead. That doesn’t
mean we don’t need certain government workers – what hellish existence would it
be without fire and police protection, or good teachers to educate our
children? But it is still overhead even if we collectively choose to pay for it
in order to enhance our safety or literacy.
Bottom line: September tends to do worse in years
that August has been bad. August was bad. The news of the mid-term elections is
already old news and will most likely follow the historical path of all
mid-term elections. We will return more to the center. And the good news to
propel the market higher is likely to be short-lived. Clearly, we aren’t out of
the woods yet. If the market is in a news-dominated phase, we are likely in big
trouble.
For our clients we are stressing safety, with inverse
ETF protection from the likes of ProShares Short S&P 500 (SH),
ProShares Short Russell 200 (RWM), ProShares UltraShort Nasdaq (QID)
and ProShares Short MSCI Emerging Markets (EUM). (If the US and Europe
aren’t consuming, who is going to order stuff from the emerging nations? They
will fall if our markets and economies fall…) We are also buying VXX and VXZ
and are keeping our bond positions short and inflation-resistant, as we do with
WIP, TIP,
BWZ,
and MINT. Finally, we own
some special situations in precious metals, energy and agriculture. (See
previous articles for specifics, including this
and this...)
AP Business
Highlights [ Wow! ‘Private
employers hired more workers over the past three months than first thought’ …
Riiiiight! Especially with 2 months to the mid-term elections (time for federal
term limits and the abolition of lifetime appointments for anything owing to
the nation’s defacto bankruptcy), desperation with fake / false data / reports;
and, that negative but better than expected thing as unemployment rate inches
up to 9.6% (the real unemployment rate is approximately 20+% with that ‘stopped
looking’ fudge-factor giving them the false positive). I mean, come on! Private
reports on non-farm payrolls down each week, but suddenly from out of nowhere
defying virtually all economist estimates the ue claims are up, and prior gov’t
reports revised up. This is a great opportunity to sell / take profits! ]Companies
add 67K workers, but jobless rate rises WASHINGTON (AP) -- Private employers
hired more workers over the past three months than first thought, a glimmer of
hope for the weak economy ahead of the Labor Day weekend. But the unemployment
rate rose because not enough jobs were created to absorb the growing number of
people looking for work ...’
Stocks Churning in Trading Range: Dave's Daily ‘This will be short. Perhaps the image [old lady (wall street)
churning (scam) butter (stocks)] and title should suffice as a summary of the
week. After all, I indicated "possibly" I might post on Friday. The
current market is a reprise of early July's rally from June's selloff. Now into
September the August lows are reversing. How durable will this be is anyone's
guess. Economic data was greeted with bullish enthusiasm as markets were
oversold after Monday's slump. The unemployment data was just about the same as
previous once you look deeper inside the data. The birth/death model is just an
estimate made out of thin air. Once you view the data ex-that, things look
pretty grim. There are very few players involved this week and perhaps in the
future. It's interesting many major banks are closing their proprietary trading
operations. This removes another important prop to markets as retail investors
have left the scene. Further, for stock mutual funds, the exodus continues for
the 16th straight week. Cash balances at these funds are at historic
lows of 3% as the outflow continues. Curiously, short interest is also at an
all-time low near 4% meaning few for bulls to squeeze. We only have hedge funds
and overseas investors in the game. And, it does seem like a game more than
ever now. Bulls jumped on the oversold conditions on Wednesday as a DeMark 9
was registered on Tuesday for most major market daily charts then. A rally on
that technical condition was no surprise ...’
Important
Manufacturing Indicators Look Weak at Seeking Alpha (Fri, Sep 3)
Consumption
Contraction Approaches 2008 Low at Seeking Alpha (Fri, Sep 3)
Beware
the Big Red Leading Indicator at Seeking Alpha (Fri, Sep 3)
Small
Investors Turns More Bullish (contrarian indicator) at Seeking
Alpha (Fri, Sep 3)
Unemployment
Rate Edges up to 9.6% at TheStreet.com (Fri, Sep 3)
AAII
Sentiment Survey: Bullish Sentiment Improves, But Bearishness Still Dominates
at Seeking Alpha (Fri, Sep 3)
Monthly
Markets Review: Risk Aversion Rises in August as Double Dip Concerns Grow at
Seeking Alpha (Fri, Sep 3) ‘…The ECB keeping rates at a record low
of 1% and zero interest policies in the US and in most western economies
remains bullish for gold as the opportunity cost, the lack of yield, of owning
gold is negligible, especially with inflation having picked up recently in many
economies internationally. Further signs of burgeoning food inflation were seen
in the surge in the price of global meat prices which have risen to 20 year
highs … (chart) September can be the 'cruelest month' for stocks. Conversely,
more years than not, precious metals prices perform well in September and many
analysts reckon this year will not disappoint those owning gold. Given the
uncertain financial and economic outlook, it is important that investors remain
diversified with allocations to cash, short dated government bonds,
international equities, and gold…’
National / World
Drudgereport: UNEMPLOYMENT
JUMPS TO 9.6%...
Economy
LOST 283,000 jobs during 'Recovery
Summer' months...
NPR:
'Recovery Summer' Ends With Economic
Pothole...
Labor
Sec. Declares: 'There are jobs out there'...
TREASURY
HEAD RUSHES BACK FROM VACATION; AIDES SEARCH FOR OTHER JOBS PACKAGE...
120
Days to Go Until Largest Tax Hikes in History...
President
Claims Job Creation; Doesn't Mention Net Job Loss of 54K...
HE
NEEDS A VACATION: OBAMA TO CAMP DAVID...
Taxpayers
to face initial loss on GM IPO; Treasury to sell first shares below
break-even...
David Rosenberg: The U.S. Is Suffering a Japanese-Style
Depression Burrows
‘Presciently bearish David Rosenberg, the chief economist and strategist at
Gluskin Sheff who called the global meltdown back when he was still at Merrill
Lynch, isn't budging from his view that the U.S. is in a depression
-- and a prolonged, Japanese-style one at that. Rosenberg reminded clients on Wednesday that here we are 33
months after the Great Recession began, and yet home prices, gross domestic product, credit outstanding,
organic personal income and employment are all lower
now than they were prior to the onset of the downturn. "We can understand
that this is not exactly cocktail conversation, but this is a Japanese-style
(even worse perhaps) modern-day depression," Rosenberg writes. "It's
not the 1930s because soup lines have been replaced with unemployment insurance
lines -- over 10 million checks and for up to 99 weeks. The poor souls who
endured the bitter 1930s had no such relief." And as for the U.S.'s
vaunted labor flexibility and superior demographics saving it from a Japanese
sort of lost decade or two, well, Rosenberg is having
none of it. "Government policy and the record number of people upside-down
on their mortgage have seriously impaired the flexibility of the labor
market," Rosenberg writes. And the U.S. birth rate has declined for two
consecutive years and is at its lowest level in a century, he notes. Of course,
it's no surprise to buy-and-hold investors that U.S. equities have already
notched a lost decade and then some. Take a look at this 10-year chart of the
S&P 500 ($INX): See full article from DailyFinance: http://srph.it/aZTYr7’
Forced / Distressed / Underwater
pending / foreclosure sales the impetus for short-covering / suckers’ rally on
light and hence, easily manipulated, pre-holiday computerized trade volume. The
government, desperate and defacto bankrupt, is back to their fake / false data
reporting; you know, the kind that spurs the fraudulent wall street rallies and
gets revised by 35% + down later as with GDP just recently, but the wall street
frauds will get their commissions again on the way down. YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]: ‘…Early participants had little reason to
alter their mood since the initial jobless claims count for the week ended
August 28 came in at 472,000, which is in on par with the 475,000 initial
claims that had been widely expected. The latest tally was also little changed
from the prior week total of 478,000. Continuing claims saw a more substantial
slip as they fell to 4.46 million from 4.48 million. Final nonfarm productivity
readings for the second quarter also offered little surprise. Productivity in
the quarter fell 1.8%, which is in stride with the 1.7% decline that had been
widely forecasted. Unit labor costs for the quarter increased 1.1%, as
expected. Pending home sales for July provided participants with a positive
surprise. They posted a 5.2% monthly increase, which contrasts with the call
for no change from economists polled by Briefing.com. That data overshadowed
news that factory orders for July increased 0.1% instead of 0.3% as had been
widely expected…’ Stocks
rise on economic hopes ahead of payrolls (Reuters) Riiiiight! Sounds like a
plan!
[$$] U.S. Equity ETFs Implode ‘U.S. equity ETFs hemorrhaged assets during
the month of August as investors sought out emerging-market equity and debt
along with fixed-income picks. According to National Stock Exchange data
(nsx.com) released today, U.S. equity ETFs shed nearly $11 billion in assets
last month. Here's something remarkable: One U.S. equity ETF accounted for more
than half of these outflows. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF, arguably the ETF industry's
most iconic fund, saw net outflows totaling more than $6.6 billion last month.
Who were the biggest losers besides SPY? You'll recognize some of these names:
the PowerShares QQQ ETF, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF and the SPDR DJIA ETF saw
net asset outflows of $2 billion, $1.7 billion and $616 million, respectively.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets ETF and
the iShares MSCI-Emerging Markets ETF attracted $1.9 billion and $1.8 billion,
respectively, while the...’
A
year ago I posted a story citing the many reasons why we were
sinking into the deflationary Japanese trap. The primary flaw with the US
response to the crisis was that we never actually confronted the problem at
hand. I have often cited Japanese economists such as Richard Koo who appear to
have a good grasp on the problems in Japan and now in the USA. In this case, I
cited Keiichiro Kobayashi who is now looking most prescient:
We continue to ignore our past and the
warnings from those who have dealt with similar financial crises. Keiichiro
Kobayashi, Senior Fellow at the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and
Industry is the latest economist with an in-depth understanding of Japan, who
says the U.S. and U.K. are making all the same mistakes:
“Bad debt
is the root of the crisis. Fiscal stimulus may help economies for a couple of years
but once the “painkilling” effect wears off, US and European economies will
plunge back into crisis. The crisis won’t be over until the nonperforming
assets are off the balance sheets of US and European banks.”
Read that last paragraph again. These are
scarily accurate comments. While the USA claims to have many economists who
understand the Japan disease and/or the Great Depression the policy actions
we’ve undertaken do not appear to be in line with any understanding of this
history.
What we’ve done over the last few years
is repeat the mistakes of Japan’s past. Instead of confronting the debt
problems head on we have simply tried to fill the output gap with short-term
spending plans and impotent monetary policies. As Kobayashi presciently said,
the “bad debt is the root of the crisis”. I think most mainstream economists,
the administration and the Fed have continually misdiagnosed our problems. They
have attempted to save the banking sector and simply fill in holes with
spending plans that prop up markets, entice more borrowing and largely ignore
the actual cause of the current crisis. Some economists have argued that the
Recovery Act didn’t fail, but that it was too small. This is like saying that
the cancer patient didn’t receive enough percocet. More percocet isn’t the
cure. Targeting the cancer and trying to cut it out is the cure. Yet, we
continue to ignore the lessons of Japan despite having so many “experts” on the
Japanese disease. Therefore, we appear destined to repeat their horrid economic
history assuming our current path isn’t miraculously altered.’
WHO ELSE IS CLUELESS IN THE FINANCIAL SECTOR? [ As I’ve previously said and
reiterate here, the lunatic frauds on wall street are criminally insane and the
only way to stop / deter their debilitating churn and earn among other
computerized frauds is prosecution, jail, fines, and disgorgement! Once again
they’re back to their huge fraudulent gains as seen this reporting period
despite growing problem bank list, worthless paper from the prior fraud in the
(hundreds of) trillions now marked to anything, and look at August results and
worse to come; that money for their commissions / premiums must come from
someplace, viz., the bubble which will deflate / crash. ] Graham Summers
‘Here’s a zinger of a news story:
Barclays
Plc had no idea how big Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s futures-and-options
trading business was when it considered taking over the defunct bank’s derivatives
trades at exchanges in 2008, a Barclays executive said.“Lehman’s
books were in such a mess that I don’t think they knew where they were,” Elizabeth James, a director of
Barclays’s futures business, testified today in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in
Manhattan. James worked on Barclays’s purchase of Lehman’s brokerage during the
2008 financial crisis.-- Bloomberg
I’ve railed for months that the central
issue surrounding the Financial Crisis (derivatives) was not only misunderstood
but completely ignored by the mainstream financial media. Here we are, nearly
two years after Lehman Brothers went bust, and they’re telling us that Lehman
had “no idea” what its options and futures exposure was.
Let’s put this into perspective.
The notional value of the derivatives
market at the time that Lehman went bust was somewhere between $600 trillion
and $1 Quadrillion (1,000 trillions). It was a market of inter-linked paper
contracts entangling virtually every financial institution (including some
non-financials), country (Greece, Italy used derivatives to get into the
European union), and county (Birmingham Alabama is one example) in the world. As
a market it was at least 20 times larger than the world stock market and
somewhere north of 10 times World GDP.
In other words, this was the giant
white elephant in the living room.
And here’s Lehman brothers, one of Wall
Streets’ finest, most respected financial institutions which had been in
business for over 150 years announcing that it had “no idea” “if it had
sold $2 billion more options than it had bought, or whether it owned $4 billion
more than it had sold.”
In today’s world of trillion dollar
bailouts, $2-4 billion doesn’t sound like much, so let’s give some perspective
here… in its golden days, Lehman Brother’s market cap was roughly $47 billion.
So you’re talking about bets equal to an amount between five and 10% of its
market cap. Not exactly chump change.
And Lehman had no idea where it was or
how much it really owed.
Mind you, we’re only addressing
Lehman’s options and futures derivatives, we’re completely ignoring its
mortgage backed securities, collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), and other
Level 3 assets. Options and futures are literally the “tip of the iceberg,” the
most visible portion of the behemoth that was Lehman’s off balance sheet
derivative issues. After all, these are regulated securities,
unlike most derivatives.
Now, if the above statement doesn’t
send shivers down your spine, have a look at the notional value of derivatives
exposure at the top five financial institutions in the US (mind you, this chart
is denominated in TRILLIONS). [chart]
If Lehman had “no idea” what it owned
even when it came to options and futures (regulated derivatives), what are the
odds that these other firms, whose derivative exposure is tens if not hundreds
of times larger than that of Lehman’s, might similarly be “in the dark’
regarding their risk?
Moreover, who on earth might be on the
opposite end of these deals? Other US counties like Birmingham Alabama (which
JP Morgan transformed into 3rd world country status)? Other countries like
Italy or Greece (who used Goldman’s financial engineering to get into the
European Union)? My next-door neighbor’s house? Tim Geithner’s long-lost tax
returns? WHO KNOWS?
The point is that the very same issues
that nearly took the financial world under in 2008 still exist today. In fact,
this time around the systemic risk is even more severe.
Consider that the Credit Default Swap
(CDS) market which nearly took the financial system down in 2008 was roughly
$50-60 trillion in size. In contrast, the interest rate based derivative
market is in the ballpark of $500+ trillion.
Indeed, US commercial banks alone have
$182 TRILLION in notional value of interest rate based derivatives outstanding
right now. To put that ridiculous number in perspective it’s
13 times US GDP and roughly three times WORLD GDP…’
Pa.
capital nearing bankruptcy (Washington Post) [ Sounds like a dry run for the nation’s capital. Drudgereport: MORGAN STANLEY:
Government Bond Defaults Inevitable … Everyone who is capable of thinking knows america is defacto bankrupt. The question is,
how did Morgan Stanley’s assessment escape scrutiny and follow-up by the press. Indeed, it is
certainly a breach of duty to have done so in light of the implications. ] In a
highly unusual move, the city of Harrisburg says it will not make a $3.3 million
payment.
Obama prods Mideast leaders (Washington Post ) [ The real question is … who is going to prod
defacto bankrupt, war crimes nation america … on peace, that is. Then there’s
that ‘oh, it’s just war crimes, illegal nuke-toting israel … laws, rules, un
resolutions, etc., don’t apply to them factor and the concomitant skepticism
attendant thereto. ] Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Palestinian President
Abbas are set to open direct peace talks.
Drudgereport:
Auto
sales: Worst August since 1983...
AMERICA
RUST- India's
economy races 8.8%...
Russian
economy grows 4.0%...
German
unemployment rate 7.6%...
FDIC
MESS: 829 BANKS AT RISK...
48
HOURS: 21 American soldiers killed in Afghanistan...
Worst
August For Stocks Since 2001...
Congressional
Travel Stipends Probed...
Dems
face midterm meltdown...
Ron
Paul questions whether there's gold at Fort Knox, NY Fed...
Dow Falls
140 Points; Banks, Industrials Slide...
1
OUT OF 6 TAKE GOV'T AID...
Homelessness
Up 50% In New York City...
OBAMA
BLAMES BUSH AGAIN FOR ECONOMY … [ bush (et als) does deserve blame but with
flawed pro-fraudulent wall street among other non-policies and continued
nation-bankrupting war, wobama is a distinction without a difference and has
bought it and can no longer shirk responsibility with the blame game ] ...
Iran
state media call French first lady prostitute...
EDUCATION
SEC URGED STAFF: GO TO SHARPTON RALLY
Increase
in federal spending hits record (Washington Post) [ Sounds like a plan …
the ‘increase the depth of the nation’s bankruptcy’ plan! And, unlike other
american plans, this plan’s working … that bankruptcy thing … but otherwise,
not! ]
Is
the U.S. Bankrupt? [YES!] (at Motley Fool)
The Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts recently reported that
bankruptcy filings between April and June hit a four-year high. Consumer
bankruptcies rose 21 percent while business bankruptcies increased eight percent.
The list of corporate bankruptcies over the last couple of years includes big
names like Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual, and GM. And financial institutions like Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) received billions of dollars
through the federal government's Troubled Asset Relief Program. Should
investors add the U.S. government to that list of big name bankruptcies? I recently asked
Boston University economics professor Lawrence Kotlikoff, author of Jimmy Stewart is Dead: Ending the World's Ongoing
Financial Plague with Limited Purpose Banking.
Mac Greer: Larry, I noticed the headline or the
title of a recent article that you wrote, US is Bankrupt and We Don't Even
Know It (see infra)
Home
prices up 4.2 percent in U.S. (Washington Post) [And america and ultimately
taxpayers paid for every percentage point with money they and soon taxpayers
don’t have and experts say the expiration of same will further be felt in the
form of declining real estate prices going forward. ]
For
banks, good news on earnings but not risk of failure (Washington Post) (
The same fraudulent game plan that caused the previous and continuing debacle: The
following from Graham Summers is truly mind-boggling and a must-read: WHO ELSE IS CLUELESS IN THE FINANCIAL SECTOR?
[ As I’ve previously said and reiterate here, the lunatic frauds on wall street
are criminally insane and the only way to stop / deter their debilitating churn
and earn among other computerized frauds is prosecution, jail, fines, and
disgorgement! Once again they’re back to their huge fraudulent gains as seen
this reporting period despite growing problem bank list, worthless paper from
the prior fraud in the (hundreds of) trillions now marked to anything and the
current fraud, and look at August (market) results and worse to come, that
money for their commissions / premiums must come from someplace, viz., the
bubble which will crash. ] ) Lenders post their biggest quarterly profit
in almost three years, even as the number of banks at risk of failure rose to
11 percent of insured institutions.
Obama:
'It is time to turn the page' on Iraq war (Washington
Post) [ Oh come on! How patronizing to have wobama spew his b*** s*** which
b.s. has become synonomous with wobama; ‘to give Iraqis the chance to shape their future’… Iraq’s been destroyed,
covered in cancer-causing depleted uranium, america’s defacto bankrupt, etc. If
only teleprompters had a brain of their own. ] He says the U.S. "has paid a huge price" to give Iraqis the
chance to shape their future -- a price that now includes more than 4,400 U.S.
dead.
7
U.S. troops die in Afghanistan violence (Washington
Post) [ I was discussing my opposition
to the contrived conflict in Iraq with a former air force man with high (top?)
security clearance from economic, geopolitical, and humanitarian perspectives;
and further, mentioned I had sought and gotten an appointment to West Point (I
was exempt) so I could go (Vietnam) as an officer rather than a grunt who were
being used as mere cannon fodder as now in Iraq (I also related the fact that I
am thankful, for a multitude of reasons, I changed my mind in light of then new
realities). He replied, quite seriously, that’s what they’re there for… No they
are not! But yes, that is their unequivocal, unforgiveable attitude beyond the
b*** s*** (look at cheney-5 deferments, bush-powderpuff duty courtesy of poppy
bush, clinton-draft dodger, wobama-never served, etc.. Just a destructive
waste!) The latest deaths bring
to 42 the number of American forces who have died this month in Afghanistan
after July's high of 66.
Ron
Paul to Fed, Ft. Knox: Show Me the Gold
at Minyanville
The
Deteriorating Macro Picture ‘Over the course of the last 18 months I’ve
been adhering to a macro view that can best be summed up as follows:
The rebound in assets was surprisingly strong and the
ability of corporations to sustain bottom line growth has been truly impressive
– far better than I expected. However, I am growing increasingly concerned that
the market has priced in overly optimistic earnings sustainability – in other
words, estimates
and expectations have overshot to the upside.
What we’ve seen over the last few years is not
terribly complex in my opinion. The housing boom created what was in essence a
massively leveraged household sector. The problems were compounded by the
leveraging in the financial sector, however, this was merely a symptom of the
real underlying problem and not the cause of the financial crisis (despite
what Mr. Bernanke continues to say and do to fix the economy) …’
30
Statistics That Prove The Elite Are Getting Richer, The Poor Are Getting Poorer
And The Middle Class Is Being Destroyed Not everyone has been doing badly
during the economic turmoil of the last few years. In fact, there are some
Americans that are doing really, really well. While the vast majority of us
struggle, there is one small segment of society that is seemingly doing better
than ever.
In the Eye of a Financial Katrina - http://seekingalpha.com/author/wall-street-sector-selector
Sunday, August 29th, was the fifth anniversary of Hurricane Katrina’s landfall
along the Gulf Coast and all of us vividly remember the horrific images of that
day and the days and weeks after. Five years later, the Gulf Coast has come a
long way but most would agree there’s still have a long way to go and many
scars yet to be healed. In the world of money and investing, the Financial
Katrina hit three years ago this month with the beginning of the sub prime
meltdown that led to the “Great Recession.” For the past year or so, we
have been in what appeared to be a recovery but now looks more like the eye of
the storm; today it is quite likely that the second wall of the hurricane is
now rapidly bearing down upon us. The news this week was intensely
negative and the only bright spot came on Friday with Chairman Bernanke’s
speech at Jackson Hole in which he essentially told us, “don’t worry, be happy”
and that all would be well. In spite of the Chairman’s calming tone, Wall
Street Sector Selector remains in the “red flag flying” mode and we believe
that an intense storm lies just ahead. Looking
at My Screens On
a technical basis, one can only be bearish and the two charts below tell a
quick and scary story. [ chart courtesy of StockCharts.com ]In the chart
of the S&P 500 above we see the “death cross” highlighted by the downward
pointing arrow wherein the 50-Day Moving Average crossed below the 200-Day
Moving Average which is a widely followed indicator of lower stock prices
ahead. In the upper box we see the 14-day RSI pointing upwards from relatively
oversold levels indicating that a short term bounce could be forthcoming, while
the red horizontal line shows the support at 1040 which was tested and held
every day last week. From this display we can conclude that we are in a bear
market, slightly oversold and near support that, if broken, could lead to a
quick drop to the July lows of 1010. [ chart courtesy of StockCharts.com ] The point
and figure chart above paints an even more ominous picture. A double bottom
“sell” signal was generated on August 11th and the index has now broken through
the blue bullish support line, indicating the onset of a new bear market in
this major index. Support and resistance lines in point and figure charting
tend to act like firm walls and mark major turning points in direction, and
this recent trend change is the first since March, 2009, when the lows were hit
and last year’s unprecedented rally began. The breach of this bullish support
line is a major development and in my opinion is an unmistakable sign that it’s
time to head for the storm shelters. The
View from 35,000 Feet
The fundamental news was equally shocking this week as existing home sales
declined to 3.8 million units for July from a previous level of 5.26 million.
This number is a record low and single family home sales were at the lowest
levels since 1995. Truly we are in what could only be described as a housing
market depression, and this comes in spite of historically low mortgage rates
that people appear to be ignoring. Seemingly almost nobody wants to buy a house
at any rate or any price. New home sales fared no better, declining to record
lows, as well, while 25% of mortgage holders are currently “upside down” in their
homes, owning more than they’re worth, and 15% are in some part of the
foreclosure process. Beyond the dismal news from the housing market, the July
Durable Goods report was dismal and points to an ongoing slowdown in capital
spending and on Friday 2nd Quarter GDP was revised downward to 1.6% from a
previous 2.4% in what could only be described as a terrifying result in light
of the stimulus and Federal Reserve intervention required to generate this
paltry number. More and more analysts are pointing to further reductions in
GDP for 3rd Quarter towards flat or even negative territory while the stock
market seems currently priced for 1.5-2.5% growth and this creates a situation
which is unlikely to have a positive outcome going forward. Looking across the spectrum of noted
analysts, we find Princeton economist and former Federal Reserve member Alan
Blinder writing an article in the Wall Street Journal titled, “The Fed is
Running out of Ammo” and noted Yale economist Robert Shiller appeared on the
Wall Street Journal’s “Big Interview” and said that a double dip “may be
imminent.” And finally Albert Edwards, the noted analyst from Societe
General says to look for 450 on the S&P 500, a roll back to 1982
levels. Fidelity reports that in the second quarter 25% of people took hardship
withdrawals from their 401ks, a number that represents a 10 year high, to help
them meet living expenses and the ECRI remained in recessionary territory with
a -9.9% reading last week. On Friday Intel (INTC) cut its earnings and revenue forecast
and across the Atlantic Ireland was downgraded and given a negative outlook by
S&P. Also in Europe, interest rates and Credit Default Swap pricing
continued to rise as their sovereign debt situation continues to erode
confidence in the outcome of the European Central Bank’s historic intervention
efforts of a couple of months ago. The bond market remains priced for
Armageddon, forming what many say will one day be the biggest bubble of all
time and lead to a historic crash in the bond market somewhere down the road.
But on Friday, Dr. Bernanke cheered world markets when he told us that he
expected no double dip, that growth would continue and improve and that he and
his colleagues stood ready to do whatever it takes to avoid deflation and that
he had the tools to lead the global economy to recovery. This upbeat assessment
comes after unprecedented government stimulus, interest rates lowered to near
zero and $1.7 Trillion of asset purchases by the Fed since the onset of the
Great Recession. So one can only wonder how this is going to work. If the
medicine hasn’t worked so far, why would a little more of the same medicine
make a difference? What It All Means As we’ve been saying for weeks, a
double dip looks highly probable with the odds growing daily, lower stock
prices look likely and to make your chest feel even tighter, summer is almost
over, traders will be back from the Hamptons, the kids will be back in school
and we’re about to enter the dreaded month of September which is historically
the worst month for stock market performance. At Wall Street Sector
Selector, we remain in the “Red Flag” mode, expecting lower prices ahead, and
we forecast that the second storm wall of the Financial Katrina is about to
hit. The Week Ahead To say that a major week lies ahead is a massive understatement. Economic
Reports: A busy
round of economic reports this week will give us a look at personal income and
spending, home prices, manufacturing and what the Federal Reserve really
thought at their recent meeting with everything leading up to the climactic Non
Farm Payroll report on Friday. Certainly all of this will be food for thought
going into the long Labor Day weekend. Tuesday: 0900: Case/Shiller 20 City Home Price
Index 0945: August Chicago PMI 1000: August Consumer Confidence. 1400: FOMC
Meeting Minutes Wednesday: 0815: July Construction Spending 1000: August ISM Index
1400: August Auto Sales Thursday: 0830: Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims
1000: July Factory Orders 1000: July Pending Home Sales Friday:
0830: August Non Farm Payrolls 0830: August
Unemployment Rate 1000: ISM Services Sector Spotlight: Leaders: Silver, Oil, Copper Laggards: Mexico, Global Shipping, South Korea
This week we’re heading for Southwest Florida for a last week of R&R before
school starts and reality strikes after the long Labor Day weekend. We hope to
have a nice time on the beach and not see any tar balls between our toes.
Sadly, I’m sure this year’s Labor Day celebration won’t be a particularly happy
occasion for the 14.6 million of our fellow citizens who remain unemployed and
I can only wish them the very best and a speedy return to gainful employment
and happier days ahead. Disclosure: RWM, PSQ, SH, SEF, EFZ, SKF, VXX,
S&P 500 Put Option
Car
sales, spending up, but experts not convinced of trend (Washington Post) [
I’d say time for ‘mouth to mouth
resuscitation’ and a closer look isn’t even necessary. Some experts? Just ask
any guy on main street. Treading water? I’d say time for post-mortem on the
drowning victim.] But a closer look at those car sales raises questions about
whether the auto market - and consumer spending as a whole - are indeed on an
upward arc or whether they are just treading water.
In
the Middle East, it's still 1947 (Washington
Post) [ Indeed it should be! Among the few
times the cia was correct, and they’ve been trying to put square pegs in round
holes ever since, to america’s substantial detriment. I wonder what what those
american sailors of the US Liberty killed by the israelis would say? USS
Liberty Survivor Threatened by Unknown Israeli This is what happened to Phillip F. Tourney, decorated war hero
and survivor of Israel’s premeditated attack on the USS Liberty 43 years ago.
On the evening of Aug. 6, Tourney was verbally threatened by a foreign national
claiming to work for the government of israel. As for the purported disdain
shown for war mongerer netanayahu, if only wobama’s actions matched his words,
the same would represent a major plus for him and the nation of america, so
sorely in need of pluses whether the same be budgetary or economic or
geopolitical. In fact, for America to abrogate 1948 would guarantee America’s
survival, prosperity, and global hegemony in the most positive sense. ]
Obama
speech on Iraq has risks (Washington Post) [ Yeah, very true indeed!
The main one being that he’s supplanting that illegal, unnecessary,
nation-bankrupting war with yet another in Afghanistan which will not be lost
on those who supported his candidacy based on promised end to unnecessary war
policies which have diverted time, attention, ill-afforded resources including
personnel and continue to do so even as defacto bankrupt america crumbles.
]
China’s
Central Bank Chief Rumored To Have Defected Rumors have circulated in China
that People’s Bank of China Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan has left the country. The
rumors appear to have started following reports on Aug. 28 which cited Ming
Pao, a Hong Kong-based news agency, saying that because of an approximately
$430 billion loss on U.S. Treasury bonds, the Chinese government may punish
some individuals within the PBOC, including Zhou.
Stocks
up [america down] (Washington Post) Previously
reported economic growth, upon which hundreds of rally ‘points’ were
predicated, revised down by 50% of the actual 1.6%. This is typical but no
small laughing matter which bespeaks the wayward ways of wall street that got
us to this debacle which also includes defacto bankruptcy of the nation. So,
GDP down, consumer confidence down, and stocks rally like no tomorrow (which is
the fraudulent wall street time horizon … they’ll just commission on the way
down). Am I missing something here, particularly when a more sobering view from
a rational player, INTEL, is far more credible? One former fed chair likened
no-recession-helicopter ben bernanke’s factually deficient, empty words to ‘a
doctor telling a patient he’s not sure of what the problem is (that economic
uncertainty thing he referenced), but if his leg gets worse he can always
amputate.’ Previously, as pertains to the jackson hole
no-recession-helicopter-ben b*** s*** non-event / talk. Fed action signals new activism (WP) [
Riiiiight! The activist fed! That’s all we need. As if we needed more of what
brought us to this point! Certainly the fed’s role in the continuing and
current financial crisis / debacle cannot be ignored or disputed. Nothing like
a hegelian methodology to create the
very problems for which they are called upon to offer solutions, increasing
their sense of importance, and concentrating power thereby. (Think about it. It
is really rather quite absurd that each meeting time the financial markets hold
their bated breath for these incompetent boobs). Then there’s the cover-up with
an opportunity for enrichment of some, usually the tight-lipped yes-men then
ever after and forever bonded in what becomes tantamount to an almost fraternal
link by ‘virtue’ of the crime thereby. No, I’m not saying their initial
missteps were necessarily badly intended, but the manipulations thereafter to
obfuscate their incompetence (senile greenspun, no-recession-helicopter-ben,
etc.) comes at a great price and is nothing less than tantamount to or just
outright crime. I’d abolish the fed without hesitation or compunction. After
all, at this point of decline and defacto bankruptcy of the nation you
certainly can’t point to success nor argue their indispensability. Then there’s
also the missing trillions, over-printing of fiat currency, and all that sub
rosa activity with the worthless fraudulent toxic paper which I believe is
being supplanted with ultimately hard currency to the great benefit of the
frauds and great detriment to the nation.]
Fed
vows to act if economy stalls (Washington Post) [ Wow!
Really! Sounds like a plan! A ‘no-recession-helicopter-ben’ plan! One former fed chair / bk. pres. likened no-recession-helicopter
ben bernanke’s factually deficient, empty words to ‘a doctor telling a patient
he’s not sure of what the problem is (that economic uncertainty thing no-recession-helicopter-ben referenced), but if his leg gets worse he can
always amputate’
Why
is the recovery faltering? (Washington Post) [ Oooooh! ‘Dat ben! He
gives such great, unctuously soothing talks. Along with wobama, we must consider
this time, a time for defacto bankrupt American decline with the cocomitant
rise of b*** s*** . The watchwords are no longer (as in Hollywood and
elsewhere) ‘pastics’, ‘computer chips’,
but rather b*** s*** and more b*** s***! I truly must say, almost as a
‘revenge to Samuelson economics kind of thing’, that Mr. Samuelson here talks
symptoms rather than (structural) causes and totally misses the (big)
macroeconomic picture and should be chastised for faulting prudence.]
Helicopter
Ben Bernanke Says Everything Is Going To Be Okay Don’t worry everybody.
Federal Reserve Chairman “No Recession Helicopter Ben” Bernanke says that the
U.S. economy is going to be just fine, and that if it does slip up somehow the
Federal Reserve is ready to rush in to the rescue. That was essentially
Bernanke’s message to an annual gathering of central bankers in Jackson Hole,
Wyoming on Friday.
Is Ben Lost? [Yes!]
Butter ‘The much awaited
speech by Ben Bernanke, on Friday, was a bit of a non-event. It was
interesting, however, to see the 30 Year bounce, from 3.55% to 3.7%, the moment
that Ben explained his cunning plan to push long-term interest rates down. But
at least we learned that $140 billion of the $1.25 billion the Fed advanced to
buy agency debt and MBS, got repaid. One question Ben: “How much did you pay
for the $140 billion that got repaid? Did you make a profit, or are you going
to wait until Ron Paul’s audit before you let us know how that went?.” I know
I’ve got a dirty mind, but I can’t help thinking that if Ben had made a profit
on that transaction, he would have been crowing about it. I loved this bit,
particularly the “Thus”:
Thus, our purchases of Treasury, agency debt, and
agency MBS likely both reduced the yields on those securities and also pushed
investors into holding other assets with similar characteristics, such as
credit risk and duration. For example, some investors who sold MBS to the Fed
may have replaced them in their portfolios with longer-term, high-quality
corporate bonds, depressing the yields on those assets as well.
Hmm…
But this was
the kicker, admittedly hidden away between jargon-heaped on jargon, but there
all the same:
(Al those good things managed)... provide further
support for the economic recovery while maintaining price stability, the Fed
has also taken extraordinary measures to ease monetary and financial
conditions.
I especially
love the part about “further” support. As if the banks are going out and
lending money to Main Street, as opposed to simply using their free, Fed
supplied, get-out-of-jail card to create an illusion of solvency whilst they
“extend and pretend”. Similar to what happened in Japan after their bubble
burst. The real gem, however, was the idea of “maintaining price stability”.
What that means is stopping assets prices (house prices, commercial real
estate, and to some extent stocks) from going down to where they have to go,
before market clearing can start. Funny how when asset prices were bubbling
through the roof, that was not considered “inflationary” by the Fed and was not
something to be concerned about. But, when asset prices fall through the floor,
that is considered deflationary (or disinflationary), and is very bad. Ben
looks to me suspiciously like a greenhorn lost in the woods who used up all his
ammo shooting at shadows. And yet, there is the Big Bad Wolf of private sector
deleveraging faster than he can run the printing presses, (and more importantly,
get that money out into the real world) lurking round the corner.’
Corporate
Media Dismisses Castro’s Bin Laden Claim As Far-Fetched Conspiracy Theory The corporate media wasted little time in
seizing upon controversial Cuban leader Fidel Castro’s comments about Osama bin
Laden being a U.S. spy to deride the claim as a far-fetched conspiracy theory,
and yet the fact that Bin Laden was once a CIA protégé and has been used time
and again to the benefit of the U.S. government’s geopolitical agenda is a
documented fact.
Drudgereport: 7
US troops killed in latest Afghanistan fighting...
Castro:
Osama bin Laden is US spy...
PAPER:
CIA secretly paying Afghan officials...
7
U.S. troops die in Afghanistan violence (Washington
Post) [ I was discussing my opposition
to the contrived conflict in Iraq with a former air force man with high (top?)
security clearance from economic, geopolitical, and humanitarian perspectives;
and further, mentioned I had sought and gotten an appointment to West Point (I
was exempt) so I could go (Vietnam) as an officer rather than a grunt who were
being used as mere cannon fodder as now in Iraq (I also related the fact that I
am thankful, for a multitude of reasons, I changed my mind in light of then new
realities). He replied, quite seriously, that’s what they’re there for… No they
are not! But yes, that is their unequivocal, unforgiveable attitude beyond the
b*** s*** (look at cheney-5 deferments, bush-powderpuff duty courtesy of poppy,
clinton-draft dodger, wobama-never served, etc.. Just a destructive waste!) The latest deaths bring to 42 the number of American
forces who have died this month in Afghanistan after July's high of 66.
U.S.
officers weary and humbled (Washington Post) [ Indeed they should be; and, if they are able
to make sense of the last 2 decades particularly, they are certifiably true
american crazy, a condition in the u.s. and among it’s war mongering allies
that is found in self-destructive abundance. No joke! And then there are the
crimes / frauds. My position is also that such frauds as the disappearance of
the 360 tons of $100 bills, etc., and similar such frauds should come right off
the top, a direct reduction in their budget allocation particularly in light of
the defacto bankruptcy of the nation! ]
How Iraq vets make sense
of the last seven years will affect how america wields its military power [very
poorly indeed!] .
We’re Already In Recession [actually a depression] Harding ‘‘First let’s look at the
trend. After an unusual four straight quarters of negative growth in the
severe 2008-2009 recession, the recession ended in the September quarter of
last year when GDP managed fragile growth of 1.6% for the quarter, and then improved
to 5.0% growth in the December quarter.It was understood that much of that
growth was temporary, fueled by government spending, and spending by consumers
provided with government bonuses and rebates, as well as temporary rebuilding
of inventories by businesses. But it was expected that with that jumpstart the
recovery could continue on its own legs.So, it was a bit of a surprise when GDP
growth slowed to 3.7% in the March quarter of this year while those programs
were still having an influence. But economists still expected the economy would
grow at a 3% pace in the June quarter even with those programs winding down,
and for the rest of the year.So, it was a real disappointment when
second quarter growth was reported a month ago as having been only 2.4%.
Plus, when additional data became available for May and June, the last
two months of the second quarter, and those reports were increasingly
negative, economists predicted that Q2 GDP growth would be revised down to only
1.3%.On Friday, the revision was released, and it showed growth last quarter
slowed significantly, but only to 1.6%, not as bad as the latest forecast.The
media and the stock market, starving for good news–and with the market
short-term oversold after being down 10 of the previous 13 days–took it as a
positive. But let’s get real.The issue is not whether economists got their
forecast right or wrong, but the degree to which economic growth is slowing.
And a trend of 5% growth in the December quarter, followed by a 1.3% decline to
3.7% growth in the March quarter, followed by a 2.1% decline to 1.6% growth in
the March quarter is a chilling rate of decline.Now factor in that economic
reports so far for July and August, the first two months of the third quarter,
have been significantly worse than those of May and June, and significantly
worse than economists’ forecasts, with the relapse pretty much across the
board; in the housing industry, manufacturing, retail sales, consumer and
business confidence, the decline in U.S. exports, and so on.It’s not a stretch
then to think that economic growth is declining by another increment of more
than 1.6% this quarter, which would have it in negative territory, already in
recession.In his speech Friday morning at the annual economic symposium in
Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Fed Chairman Bernanke, while saying he still expects the
economy to grow in the second half “albeit at a relatively modest pace” did not
put forth a very convincing argument, using such phrases as “painfully slow
recovery in the labor market”. . . “economic projections are inherently
uncertain”. . . . “the economy is vulnerable to unexpected developments” . . .
“the recovery is less vigorous than we expected.”Nor did he seem confident that
the Fed’s depleted arsenal of tools to re-stimulate the economy would be
effective if needed. Two of the four possible actions he mentioned seemed to
suggest consumers and markets could be fooled into confidence with mere
talk.His brief list of four possible actions were, “1) conducting additional
purchases of longer-term securities [bonds and mortgage-related securities]; 2)
modifying the Fed’s FOMC meeting communications to investors; 3) reducing the
interest the Fed pays banks on their excess reserves. And I will also comment
of a fourth strategy, proposed by several economists- namely, that the Fed
increase its inflation goals.”Providing details on two of the four possible
actions, he said, “The Fed’s current statement after its FOMC meetings reflects
the FOMC’s anticipation that exceptionally low interest rates will be warranted
‘for an extended period’ . . . A step the Committee could consider if
conditions called for it, would be to modify the language to communicate to
investors that it anticipates keeping the target for the federal funds rate low
for a longer period of time.”As for the fourth possible action in his list of
four, he said the Fed could alter the phrases it uses to communicate its goals
for inflation by “increasing its medium-term inflation goals above levels
consistent with price stability.”That’s scary stuff if those are two of the
four actions the Fed sees as its best options to re-stimulate the economy.Also
of concern, in its report revising Q2 GDP growth down to just 1.6%, the
Commerce Department reported that corporate earnings declined significantly in
the second quarter, after-tax earnings rising just 0.1%, compared to the gain
of 11.4% in the first quarter. Meanwhile, Wall Street continues to ratchet up
its earnings estimates.On the positive side, consumer spending, which accounts
for 70% of the economy, rose 2% in the second quarter, compared to 1.9% in the
first quarter. But the bad news is that the reports since, on consumer
confidence and retail sales in July and August, have been big
disappointments.Putting it all together, don’t be surprised if a couple of
months down the road we learn the economy was already in recession in the
current quarter.’
Previously
reported economic growth, upon which hundreds of rally ‘points’ were
predicated, revised down by 50% of the actual 1.6%. This is typical but no
small laughing matter which bespeaks the wayward ways of wall street that got
us to this debacle which also includes defacto bankruptcy of the nation. So,
GDP down, consumer confidence down, and stocks rally like no tomorrow (which is
the fraudulent wall street time horizon … they’ll just commission the way
down). Am I missing something here, particularly when a more sobering view from
a rational player, INTEL, is far more credible. One former fed chair likened
no-recession-helicopter ben bernanke’s factually deficient, empty words to ‘a
doctor telling a patient he’s not sure of what the problem is (that economic
uncertainty thing he referenced), but if his leg gets worse he can always
amputate.’ Previously, as pertains to the jackson hole
no-recession-helicopter-ben b*** s*** non-event / talk. Fed action signals new activism (Washington
Post) [ Riiiiight! The activist fed! That’s all we need. As if we needed more
of what brought us to this point! Certainly the fed’s role in the continuing
and current financial crisis / debacle cannot be ignored or disputed. Nothing
like a hegelian methodology to create
the very problems for which they are called upon to offer solutions, increasing
their sense of importance, and concentrating power thereby. (Think about it. It
is really rather quite absurd that each meeting time the financial markets hold
their bated breath for these incompetent boobs). Then there’s the cover-up with
an opportunity for enrichment of some, usually the tight-lipped yes-men then
ever after and forever bonded in what becomes tantamount to an almost fraternal
link by ‘virtue’ of the crime thereby. No, I’m not saying their initial
missteps were necessarily badly intended, but the manipulations thereafter to
obfuscate their incompetence (senile greenspun, no-recession-helicopter-ben,
etc.) comes at a great price and is nothing less than tantamount to or just
outright crime. I’d abolish the fed without hesitation or compunction. After
all, at this point of decline and defacto bankruptcy of the nation you
certainly can’t point to success nor argue their indispensability. Then there’s
also the missing trillions, over-printing of fiat currency, and all that sub
rosa activity with the worthless fraudulent toxic paper which I believe is
being supplanted with ultimately hard currency to the great benefit of the
frauds and great detriment to the nation.]
Drudgereport:
Analyst:
CITIGROUP 'Cooking the Books'...
Banks
back switch to renminbi for trade; Incentives to move from dollar and euro...
THE
SPEECH: Bernanke under pressure to prop it up...
'RECOVERY
SUMMER' ENDS SICK
GDP
REVISION: 1.6%
Says
recovery softer, Fed prepared to buy more...
Weaker
GDP raises stakes...
WIRE:
What Biden didn't
mention on stimulus...
ZUCKERMAN:
The Most Fiscally Irresponsible Government in History … along with bushes’...
Joint
Chiefs Chairman: National Debt is a Security Threat...
Recession
pushes US birth rate to new low...
RECOVERY
BUMMER: Youth employment lowest since 1948...
Thousands line up before dawn for mortgage help in Palm Beach
County...
Chossudovsky:
China could already be world’s largest economy
Is
the U.S. Bankrupt? [YES!] (at Motley Fool)
The Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts recently reported that
bankruptcy filings between April and June hit a four-year high. Consumer
bankruptcies rose 21 percent while business bankruptcies increased eight
percent. The list of corporate bankruptcies over the last couple of years
includes big names like Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual, and GM. And financial institutions like
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Wells
Fargo (NYSE: WFC) received billions of dollars
through the federal government's Troubled Asset Relief Program. Should
investors add the U.S. government to that list of big name bankruptcies? I recently asked
Boston University economics professor Lawrence Kotlikoff, author of Jimmy Stewart is Dead: Ending the World's Ongoing
Financial Plague with Limited Purpose Banking.
Mac Greer: Larry, I noticed the headline or the title of a recent article
that you wrote, US is Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It. So with that
in mind, what is your take on the economy these days?
Larry Kotlikoff: Well there is a lot of uncertainty, as rightfully there should
be. We have seen the financial sector implode basically because of the
systematic production and sale of trillions of dollars of fraudulent securities
under the cover of proprietary information, so nobody really had the ability to
look inside big companies like Bear Sterns or Merrill Lynch to see exactly what
they owned or owed. That problem remains today, even with the passage of
Dodd-Frank. There is no requirement that the financial industry come clean with
respect to what it is doing with our money, so every major financial player
says you can't see what we are doing because we have the Midas touch. We are
going to beat the market, and if we show you, everybody will see our secret
formula for making you a mint. As a result, they have a great cover to produce
fraudulent securities. And then when there is a sniff of fraud, one can easily
presume that everything they are doing is fraudulent, which may not at all be
the case. And then there is a run against those institutions as we saw with
Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers and all the other ones because of the
perception that so much of their holdings were fraudulent and that their
reporting was fraudulent. And of course the rating companies and the regulators
and the boards of directors and the members of Congress were all, in effect, in
bed with each other to achieve this result. I don't see anything that has
fundamentally changed, so that is one major area of fragility. We could have
another meltdown in the financial market tomorrow because as Dick Fuld [Lehman
former CEO] said, he claims that their balance sheet was just fine and that
this was all just a panic, it was not connected with any facts. Well, he said
that every institution on Wall Street ---
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), JP
Morgan (NYSE: JPM) -- could have experienced the same thing.
His concern about this happening to other companies is well taken. So we have a
financial system that is set up to fail again, and we have a fiscal situation
which is a complete and dire mess. It could lead to a financial panic that could
lead to a much bigger meltdown of the financial system than we have seen.
Greer: Is the U.S. bankrupt?
Kotlikoff: Bankruptcy means not being able to pay your future bills. If
you can't pay your current bills, your creditors are already after you so you
already are bankrupt. If you can't pay your future bills, that really is
the operational definition of going bankrupt or being bankrupt. The U.S.
government can't pay its future bills. These bills, in total, in present value,
exceed the revenues by $202 trillion. This is based on taking the data
projected by CBO (Congressional Budget Office) back on June 26 of this year,
when they put out their alternative fiscal scenario, which is their best
long-term projection of government spending, including servicing the official
debt, and government revenues. And if you present value the differential
between spending and revenues, including extrapolating beyond their projection
which is important to do, you get a fiscal gap of $202 trillion. To come
up with $202 trillion in present value, you'd have to immediately and
permanently double all taxes we have. You'd have to do it immediately.
We're talking here about running a 5% GDP surplus this year instead of running
a 9% deficit. So I don't see that happening. We have to cut spending or we have
to print money. Either way you're cutting spending so either way you're, in
effect, reining in spending promises. And that suits my definition of
bankruptcy. And I think there are ways of cutting spending and getting our
fiscal house in order but we need to engage in radical surgery here and not
putting on the band-aid that this administration is so fond of.
Greer: One of our Motley Fool writers recently interviewed Euro Pacific Capital President Peter
Schiff. In 2006, he was predicting the economic downturn, and he now
says that we are, "In the early stages of a depression now. It is going to
be a horrific experience for average Americans who are going to watch their
standard of living plunge." Do you agree?
Kotlikoff: Well, this has been a depression so far for millions of
Americans. It didn't have to happen. It is really man-made. We have the same
physical capital and human capital sitting here in place. We don't have to stay
in a depressed state. The problem is that things are not coordinated. We don't
have buyers optimistic about getting paid salaries and we don't have sellers
optimistic about being able to find buyers, so everybody is kind of sitting on
their hands. We can have some, a bunch of KISS's, which are "keep it
simple, stupid" solutions to our problems, and lots of people throughout
the country realize this, that we need to fix things fundamentally. We can't do
it with 2,000 page bills that make bureaucratic structures that are basically
clogging up our economic arteries, even more bureaucratic…
China
Buys Euros as Fear of World Depression Grows Webster G.
Tarpley | The one certainty
is that there is no recovery, and that the second wave of a world economic
depression dominates the world.
Economy Caught in Depression, Not Recession: Rosenberg Positive
gross domestic product readings and other mildly hopeful signs are masking an ugly
truth: The US economy is in a 1930s-style Depression, Gluskin Sheff economist
David Rosenberg said Tuesday. ‘Positive gross domestic product readings and
other mildly hopeful signs are masking an ugly truth: The US economy is in a
1930s-style Depression, Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg said Tuesday.
Writing in his daily briefing to investors, Rosenberg said the Great Depression
also had its high points, with a series of positive GDP reports and sharp stock
market gains. But then as now, those signs of recovery were unsustainable and
only provided a false sense of stability, said Rosenberg. Rosenberg calls current economic
conditions “a depression, and not just some
garden-variety recession,” and notes that any good news both during the initial
1929-33 recession and the one that began in 2008 triggered “euphoric response.”
David Rosenberg: The U.S. Is Suffering a Japanese-Style
Depression Burrows
‘Presciently bearish David Rosenberg, the chief economist and strategist at
Gluskin Sheff who called the global meltdown back when he was still at Merrill
Lynch, isn't budging from his view that the U.S. is in a depression
-- and a prolonged, Japanese-style one at that. Rosenberg reminded clients on Wednesday that here we are 33
months after the Great Recession began, and yet home prices, gross domestic product, credit outstanding,
organic personal income and employment are all lower
now than they were prior to the onset of the downturn. "We can understand
that this is not exactly cocktail conversation, but this is a Japanese-style
(even worse perhaps) modern-day depression," Rosenberg writes. "It's
not the 1930s because soup lines have been replaced with unemployment insurance
lines -- over 10 million checks and for up to 99 weeks. The poor souls who
endured the bitter 1930s had no such relief." And as for the U.S.'s
vaunted labor flexibility and superior demographics saving it from a Japanese
sort of lost decade or two, well, Rosenberg is having
none of it. "Government policy and the record number of people upside-down
on their mortgage have seriously impaired the flexibility of the labor
market," Rosenberg writes. And the U.S. birth rate has declined for two
consecutive years and is at its lowest level in a century, he notes. Of course,
it's no surprise to buy-and-hold investors that U.S. equities have already
notched a lost decade and then some. Take a look at this 10-year chart of the
S&P 500 ($INX): See full article from DailyFinance: http://srph.it/aZTYr7’
Forced / Distressed /
Underwater pending / foreclosure sales the impetus for short-covering /
suckers’ rally on light and hence, easily manipulated, pre-holiday computerized
trade volume. The government, desperate and defacto bankrupt, is back to their
fake / false data reporting; you know, the kind that spurs the fraudulent wall
street rallies and gets revised by 35% + down later as with GDP just recently,
but the wall street frauds will get their commissions again on the way
down. YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]: ‘…Early participants had little reason to
alter their mood since the initial jobless claims count for the week ended
August 28 came in at 472,000, which is in on par with the 475,000 initial
claims that had been widely expected. The latest tally was also little changed
from the prior week total of 478,000. Continuing claims saw a more substantial
slip as they fell to 4.46 million from 4.48 million. Final nonfarm productivity
readings for the second quarter also offered little surprise. Productivity in
the quarter fell 1.8%, which is in stride with the 1.7% decline that had been
widely forecasted. Unit labor costs for the quarter increased 1.1%, as
expected. Pending home sales for July provided participants with a positive
surprise. They posted a 5.2% monthly increase, which contrasts with the call
for no change from economists polled by Briefing.com. That data overshadowed
news that factory orders for July increased 0.1% instead of 0.3% as had been
widely expected…’ Stocks
rise on economic hopes ahead of payrolls (Reuters) Riiiiight! Sounds like a
plan!
[$$] U.S. Equity ETFs Implode ‘U.S. equity ETFs hemorrhaged assets during
the month of August as investors sought out emerging-market equity and debt
along with fixed-income picks. According to National Stock Exchange data
(nsx.com) released today, U.S. equity ETFs shed nearly $11 billion in assets
last month. Here's something remarkable: One U.S. equity ETF accounted for more
than half of these outflows. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF, arguably the ETF industry's
most iconic fund, saw net outflows totaling more than $6.6 billion last month.
Who were the biggest losers besides SPY? You'll recognize some of these names:
the PowerShares QQQ ETF, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF and the SPDR DJIA ETF saw
net asset outflows of $2 billion, $1.7 billion and $616 million, respectively.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets ETF and
the iShares MSCI-Emerging Markets ETF attracted $1.9 billion and $1.8 billion,
respectively, while the...’
A
year ago I posted a story citing the many reasons why we were
sinking into the deflationary Japanese trap. The primary flaw with the US
response to the crisis was that we never actually confronted the problem at
hand. I have often cited Japanese economists such as Richard Koo who appear to
have a good grasp on the problems in Japan and now in the USA. In this case, I
cited Keiichiro Kobayashi who is now looking most prescient:
We continue to ignore our past and the
warnings from those who have dealt with similar financial crises. Keiichiro
Kobayashi, Senior Fellow at the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and
Industry is the latest economist with an in-depth understanding of Japan, who
says the U.S. and U.K. are making all the same mistakes:
“Bad debt
is the root of the crisis. Fiscal stimulus may help economies for a couple of
years but once the “painkilling” effect wears off, US and European economies
will plunge back into crisis. The crisis won’t be over until the nonperforming
assets are off the balance sheets of US and European banks.”
Read that last paragraph again. These
are scarily accurate comments. While the USA claims to have many economists who
understand the Japan disease and/or the Great Depression the policy actions
we’ve undertaken do not appear to be in line with any understanding of this
history.
What we’ve done over the last few years
is repeat the mistakes of Japan’s past. Instead of confronting the debt
problems head on we have simply tried to fill the output gap with short-term
spending plans and impotent monetary policies. As Kobayashi presciently said,
the “bad debt is the root of the crisis”. I think most mainstream economists,
the administration and the Fed have continually misdiagnosed our problems. They
have attempted to save the banking sector and simply fill in holes with
spending plans that prop up markets, entice more borrowing and largely ignore
the actual cause of the current crisis. Some economists have argued that the
Recovery Act didn’t fail, but that it was too small. This is like saying that
the cancer patient didn’t receive enough percocet. More percocet isn’t the
cure. Targeting the cancer and trying to cut it out is the cure. Yet, we
continue to ignore the lessons of Japan despite having so many “experts” on the
Japanese disease. Therefore, we appear destined to repeat their horrid economic
history assuming our current path isn’t miraculously altered.’
WHO ELSE IS CLUELESS IN THE FINANCIAL SECTOR? [ As I’ve previously said and
reiterate here, the lunatic frauds on wall street are criminally insane and the
only way to stop / deter their debilitating churn and earn among other
computerized frauds is prosecution, jail, fines, and disgorgement! Once again they’re
back to their huge fraudulent gains as seen this reporting period despite
growing problem bank list, worthless paper from the prior fraud in the
(hundreds of) trillions now marked to anything, and look at August results and
worse to come; that money for their commissions / premiums must come from
someplace, viz., the bubble which will deflate / crash. ] Graham Summers
‘Here’s a zinger of a news story:
Barclays
Plc had no idea how big Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s futures-and-options
trading business was when it considered taking over the defunct bank’s derivatives
trades at exchanges in 2008, a Barclays executive said.“Lehman’s
books were in such a mess that I don’t think they knew where they were,” Elizabeth James, a director of
Barclays’s futures business, testified today in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in
Manhattan. James worked on Barclays’s purchase of Lehman’s brokerage during the
2008 financial crisis.-- Bloomberg
I’ve railed for months that the central
issue surrounding the Financial Crisis (derivatives) was not only misunderstood
but completely ignored by the mainstream financial media. Here we are, nearly
two years after Lehman Brothers went bust, and they’re telling us that Lehman
had “no idea” what its options and futures exposure was.
Let’s put this into perspective.
The notional value of the derivatives
market at the time that Lehman went bust was somewhere between $600 trillion and
$1 Quadrillion (1,000 trillions). It was a market of inter-linked paper
contracts entangling virtually every financial institution (including some
non-financials), country (Greece, Italy used derivatives to get into the
European union), and county (Birmingham Alabama is one example) in the world. As
a market it was at least 20 times larger than the world stock market and
somewhere north of 10 times World GDP.
In other words, this was the giant
white elephant in the living room.
And here’s Lehman brothers, one of Wall
Streets’ finest, most respected financial institutions which had been in
business for over 150 years announcing that it had “no idea” “if it had
sold $2 billion more options than it had bought, or whether it owned $4 billion
more than it had sold.”
In today’s world of trillion dollar
bailouts, $2-4 billion doesn’t sound like much, so let’s give some perspective
here… in its golden days, Lehman Brother’s market cap was roughly $47 billion.
So you’re talking about bets equal to an amount between five and 10% of its
market cap. Not exactly chump change.
And Lehman had no idea where it was or
how much it really owed.
Mind you, we’re only addressing
Lehman’s options and futures derivatives, we’re completely ignoring its
mortgage backed securities, collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), and other
Level 3 assets. Options and futures are literally the “tip of the iceberg,” the
most visible portion of the behemoth that was Lehman’s off balance sheet
derivative issues. After all, these are regulated securities,
unlike most derivatives.
Now, if the above statement doesn’t
send shivers down your spine, have a look at the notional value of derivatives
exposure at the top five financial institutions in the US (mind you, this chart
is denominated in TRILLIONS). [chart]
If Lehman had “no idea” what it owned
even when it came to options and futures (regulated derivatives), what are the
odds that these other firms, whose derivative exposure is tens if not hundreds
of times larger than that of Lehman’s, might similarly be “in the dark’
regarding their risk?
Moreover, who on earth might be on the
opposite end of these deals? Other US counties like Birmingham Alabama (which
JP Morgan transformed into 3rd world country status)? Other countries like
Italy or Greece (who used Goldman’s financial engineering to get into the
European Union)? My next-door neighbor’s house? Tim Geithner’s long-lost tax
returns? WHO KNOWS?
The point is that the very same issues
that nearly took the financial world under in 2008 still exist today. In fact,
this time around the systemic risk is even more severe.
Consider that the Credit Default Swap
(CDS) market which nearly took the financial system down in 2008 was roughly
$50-60 trillion in size. In contrast, the interest rate based derivative
market is in the ballpark of $500+ trillion.
Indeed, US commercial banks alone have
$182 TRILLION in notional value of interest rate based derivatives outstanding
right now. To put that ridiculous number in perspective it’s
13 times US GDP and roughly three times WORLD GDP…’
Nation / World
Drudgereport: TIME: (WOBAMA) MR.
UNPOPULAR... FLASHBACK: (WOBAMA) TIME MAN
OF THE YEAR 2008...
Calls for USA to
shore up Afghanistan Bank as withdrawals accelerate...
UPDATE: Oil rig explodes in
Gulf of Mexico; 7 active wells on platform...
COAST GUARD: Mile-long 'oil
sheen' spreading...
Russian police raid opposition
magazine... [They don’t often do this overtly in america anymore
since most media is in cahoots / controlled; but still, no excuse for putin who
is often disengaged as when he is out shooting Siberian Tigers with
sophisticated weaponry. ]
Pledge beaten by sorority
sisters who warned her 'snitches get stitches'... ‘… In her lawsuit,
excerpted here, Howard noted that she had originally planned to pledge
Alpha Kappa Alpha, the oldest African-American women’s sorority. But since the
sorority’s San Jose chapter has been suspended due to hazing activities, Howard
opted to join Sigma Gamma Rho, believing that “they represented the
‘sisterhood’ she sought in a sorority.” However, Howard contends, that the
group’s pledge process was far from sisterly. According to her complaint, she
and fellow pledges were punched, slapped, kicked, slammed into walls, struck
with a wooden spoon and a cane, and had books and coins thrown at them during a
series of 16 nighttime initiation sessions. Howard recalled one evening when a
sorority sister told her to close her eyes. She was then struck on the buttocks
with what she later learned was a kitchen pot. The pledges were also frequently
struck with a wooden paddle, Howard said, blows that left her with welts on her
buttocks. Howard reported that pledges were repeatedly warned not to talk with
friends and family about the initiation process, since “snitches get stitches.”
They were also told that if they failed to participate in certain pledge
activities, they would be “jumped out,” a gang term for a beating conducted by
all members of the group. Howard’s complaint names as defendants San Jose State
University, Sigma Gamma Rho, and various sorority members, including a quartet
of women who, court records show, pleaded no contest earlier this year to
misdemeanor hazing charges. The defendants--Princess Odom; Monique Hughes;
Joslyn Beard; and Nicole Remble--were each sentenced to 90 days in jail,
directed to serve two years of court probation, and barred from involvement
with any sorority. Odom, Hughes, Beard, and Remble (all negroes) are
pictured here, clockwise from upper left, in San Jose Police Department mug
shots.’
A
year ago I posted a story citing the many reasons why we were
sinking into the deflationary Japanese trap. The primary flaw with the US
response to the crisis was that we never actually confronted the problem at
hand. I have often cited Japanese economists such as Richard Koo who appear to
have a good grasp on the problems in Japan and now in the USA. In this case, I
cited Keiichiro Kobayashi who is now looking most prescient:
We continue to ignore our past and the
warnings from those who have dealt with similar financial crises. Keiichiro
Kobayashi, Senior Fellow at the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and
Industry is the latest economist with an in-depth understanding of Japan, who
says the U.S. and U.K. are making all the same mistakes:
“Bad debt
is the root of the crisis. Fiscal stimulus may help economies for a couple of
years but once the “painkilling” effect wears off, US and European economies
will plunge back into crisis. The crisis won’t be over until the nonperforming
assets are off the balance sheets of US and European banks.”
Read that last paragraph again. These
are scarily accurate comments. While the USA claims to have many economists who
understand the Japan disease and/or the Great Depression the policy actions
we’ve undertaken do not appear to be in line with any understanding of this
history.
What we’ve done over the last few years
is repeat the mistakes of Japan’s past. Instead of confronting the debt
problems head on we have simply tried to fill the output gap with short-term
spending plans and impotent monetary policies. As Kobayashi presciently said,
the “bad debt is the root of the crisis”. I think most mainstream economists,
the administration and the Fed have continually misdiagnosed our problems. They
have attempted to save the banking sector and simply fill in holes with
spending plans that prop up markets, entice more borrowing and largely ignore
the actual cause of the current crisis. Some economists have argued that the
Recovery Act didn’t fail, but that it was too small. This is like saying that
the cancer patient didn’t receive enough percocet. More percocet isn’t the
cure. Targeting the cancer and trying to cut it out is the cure. Yet, we
continue to ignore the lessons of Japan despite having so many “experts” on the
Japanese disease. Therefore, we appear destined to repeat their horrid economic
history assuming our current path isn’t miraculously altered.’
WHO ELSE IS CLUELESS IN THE FINANCIAL SECTOR? [ As I’ve previously said and
reiterate here, the lunatic frauds on wall street are criminally insane and the
only way to stop / deter their debilitating churn and earn among other
computerized frauds is prosecution, jail, fines, and disgorgement! Once again
they’re back to their huge fraudulent gains as seen this reporting period
despite growing problem bank list, worthless paper from the prior fraud in the
(hundreds of) trillions now marked to anything, and look at August results and
worse to come; that money for their commissions / premiums must come from
someplace, viz., the bubble which will deflate / crash. ] Graham Summers
‘Here’s a zinger of a news story:
Barclays
Plc had no idea how big Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s futures-and-options
trading business was when it considered taking over the defunct bank’s derivatives
trades at exchanges in 2008, a Barclays executive said.“Lehman’s
books were in such a mess that I don’t think they knew where they were,” Elizabeth James, a director of
Barclays’s futures business, testified today in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Manhattan.
James worked on Barclays’s purchase of Lehman’s brokerage during the 2008
financial crisis.-- Bloomberg
I’ve railed for months that the central
issue surrounding the Financial Crisis (derivatives) was not only misunderstood
but completely ignored by the mainstream financial media. Here we are, nearly
two years after Lehman Brothers went bust, and they’re telling us that Lehman
had “no idea” what its options and futures exposure was.
Let’s put this into perspective.
The notional value of the derivatives
market at the time that Lehman went bust was somewhere between $600 trillion
and $1 Quadrillion (1,000 trillions). It was a market of inter-linked paper
contracts entangling virtually every financial institution (including some
non-financials), country (Greece, Italy used derivatives to get into the
European union), and county (Birmingham Alabama is one example) in the world. As
a market it was at least 20 times larger than the world stock market and
somewhere north of 10 times World GDP.
In other words, this was the giant
white elephant in the living room.
And here’s Lehman brothers, one of Wall
Streets’ finest, most respected financial institutions which had been in
business for over 150 years announcing that it had “no idea” “if it had
sold $2 billion more options than it had bought, or whether it owned $4 billion
more than it had sold.”
In today’s world of trillion dollar
bailouts, $2-4 billion doesn’t sound like much, so let’s give some perspective
here… in its golden days, Lehman Brother’s market cap was roughly $47 billion.
So you’re talking about bets equal to an amount between five and 10% of its
market cap. Not exactly chump change.
And Lehman had no idea where it was or
how much it really owed.
Mind you, we’re only addressing
Lehman’s options and futures derivatives, we’re completely ignoring its
mortgage backed securities, collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), and other
Level 3 assets. Options and futures are literally the “tip of the iceberg,” the
most visible portion of the behemoth that was Lehman’s off balance sheet
derivative issues. After all, these are regulated securities,
unlike most derivatives.
Now, if the above statement doesn’t
send shivers down your spine, have a look at the notional value of derivatives
exposure at the top five financial institutions in the US (mind you, this chart
is denominated in TRILLIONS). [chart]
If Lehman had “no idea” what it owned
even when it came to options and futures (regulated derivatives), what are the
odds that these other firms, whose derivative exposure is tens if not hundreds
of times larger than that of Lehman’s, might similarly be “in the dark’
regarding their risk?
Moreover, who on earth might be on the
opposite end of these deals? Other US counties like Birmingham Alabama (which
JP Morgan transformed into 3rd world country status)? Other countries like
Italy or Greece (who used Goldman’s financial engineering to get into the European
Union)? My next-door neighbor’s house? Tim Geithner’s long-lost tax returns?
WHO KNOWS?
The point is that the very same issues
that nearly took the financial world under in 2008 still exist today. In fact,
this time around the systemic risk is even more severe.
Consider that the Credit Default Swap
(CDS) market which nearly took the financial system down in 2008 was roughly
$50-60 trillion in size. In contrast, the interest rate based derivative
market is in the ballpark of $500+ trillion.
Indeed, US commercial banks alone have
$182 TRILLION in notional value of interest rate based derivatives outstanding
right now. To put that ridiculous number in perspective it’s
13 times US GDP and roughly three times WORLD GDP…’
Predicting
This Year's Bank Failures ‘The FDIC’s quarterly banking profile, providing
data for quarter 2, was released today. The number of 2010 United States bank
failures will likely exceed the 2009 failures, the FDIC reported. This was as I
reported in this space back in May. Thus far this year there have been 118 bank
closings, which compares to about 80 by the same time of year in 2009. The
number of banks on the problem list is still rising. It is now at 829 banks…’
Drudgereport:
Auto
sales: Worst August since 1983...
AMERICA
RUST- India's
economy races 8.8%...
Russian
economy grows 4.0%...
German
unemployment rate 7.6%...
FDIC
MESS: 829 BANKS AT RISK...
48
HOURS: 21 American soldiers killed in Afghanistan...
Worst
August For Stocks Since 2001...
Congressional
Travel Stipends Probed...
Dems
face midterm meltdown...
Ron
Paul questions whether there's gold at Fort Knox, NY Fed...
Dow Falls
140 Points; Banks, Industrials Slide...
1
OUT OF 6 TAKE GOV'T AID...
Homelessness
Up 50% In New York City...
OBAMA
BLAMES BUSH AGAIN FOR ECONOMY … [ bush (et als) does deserve blame but with
flawed pro-fraudulent wall street among other non-policies and continued
nation-bankrupting war, wobama is a distinction without a difference and has
bought it and can no longer shirk responsibility with the blame game ] ...
Iran
state media call French first lady prostitute...
EDUCATION
SEC URGED STAFF: GO TO SHARPTON RALLY
WHO ELSE IS CLUELESS IN THE FINANCIAL SECTOR? [ As I’ve previously said and
reiterate here, the lunatic frauds on wall street are criminally insane and the
only way to stop / deter their debilitating churn and earn among other
computerized frauds is prosecution, jail, fines, and disgorgement! Once again
they’re back to their huge fraudulent gains as seen this reporting period
despite growing problem bank list, worthless paper from the prior fraud in the
(hundreds of) trillions now marked to anything, and look at August results and worse to come, that money
for their commissions / premiums must come from someplace, viz., the bubble
which will crash. ] Graham Summers ‘Here’s a zinger of a news story:
Barclays
Plc had no idea how big Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s futures-and-options
trading business was when it considered taking over the defunct bank’s derivatives
trades at exchanges in 2008, a Barclays executive said.“Lehman’s
books were in such a mess that I don’t think they knew where they were,” Elizabeth James, a director of
Barclays’s futures business, testified today in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in
Manhattan. James worked on Barclays’s purchase of Lehman’s brokerage during the
2008 financial crisis.-- Bloomberg
I’ve railed for months that the central
issue surrounding the Financial Crisis (derivatives) was not only misunderstood
but completely ignored by the mainstream financial media. Here we are, nearly
two years after Lehman Brothers went bust, and they’re telling us that Lehman
had “no idea” what its options and futures exposure was.
Let’s put this into perspective.
The notional value of the derivatives
market at the time that Lehman went bust was somewhere between $600 trillion
and $1 Quadrillion (1,000 trillions). It was a market of inter-linked paper
contracts entangling virtually every financial institution (including some
non-financials), country (Greece, Italy used derivatives to get into the
European union), and county (Birmingham Alabama is one example) in the world. As
a market it was at least 20 times larger than the world stock market and
somewhere north of 10 times World GDP.
In other words, this was the giant
white elephant in the living room.
And here’s Lehman brothers, one of Wall
Streets’ finest, most respected financial institutions which had been in
business for over 150 years announcing that it had “no idea” “if it had
sold $2 billion more options than it had bought, or whether it owned $4 billion
more than it had sold.”
In today’s world of trillion dollar
bailouts, $2-4 billion doesn’t sound like much, so let’s give some perspective
here… in its golden days, Lehman Brother’s market cap was roughly $47 billion.
So you’re talking about bets equal to an amount between five and 10% of its
market cap. Not exactly chump change.
And Lehman had no idea where it was or
how much it really owed.
Mind you, we’re only addressing
Lehman’s options and futures derivatives, we’re completely ignoring its
mortgage backed securities, collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), and other
Level 3 assets. Options and futures are literally the “tip of the iceberg,” the
most visible portion of the behemoth that was Lehman’s off balance sheet
derivative issues. After all, these are regulated securities,
unlike most derivatives.
Now, if the above statement doesn’t
send shivers down your spine, have a look at the notional value of derivatives
exposure at the top five financial institutions in the US (mind you, this chart
is denominated in TRILLIONS). [chart]
If Lehman had “no idea” what it owned
even when it came to options and futures (regulated derivatives), what are the
odds that these other firms, whose derivative exposure is tens if not hundreds
of times larger than that of Lehman’s, might similarly be “in the dark’
regarding their risk?
Moreover, who on earth might be on the
opposite end of these deals? Other US counties like Birmingham Alabama (which
JP Morgan transformed into 3rd world country status)? Other countries like
Italy or Greece (who used Goldman’s financial engineering to get into the
European Union)? My next-door neighbor’s house? Tim Geithner’s long-lost tax
returns? WHO KNOWS?
The point is that the very same issues
that nearly took the financial world under in 2008 still exist today. In fact,
this time around the systemic risk is even more severe.
Consider that the Credit Default Swap
(CDS) market which nearly took the financial system down in 2008 was roughly
$50-60 trillion in size. In contrast, the interest rate based derivative
market is in the ballpark of $500+ trillion.
Indeed, US commercial banks alone have
$182 TRILLION in notional value of interest rate based derivatives outstanding
right now. To put that ridiculous number in perspective it’s
13 times US GDP and roughly three times WORLD GDP…’
Predicting
This Year's Bank Failures ‘The FDIC’s quarterly banking profile, providing
data for quarter 2, was released today. The number of 2010 United States bank
failures will likely exceed the 2009 failures, the FDIC reported. This was as I
reported in this space back in May. Thus far this year there have been 118 bank
closings, which compares to about 80 by the same time of year in 2009. The
number of banks on the problem list is still rising. It is now at 829 banks…’
Market recap: Stocks closed mixed, making up
ground after the Fed's minutes showed the economy would need to get worse
before providing more support. Although the Dow eked out a gain, it was the
worst August for the index in nine years. Tuesday, August
31, 4:00 PM At the close: Dow +0.05% to 10014.
S&P +0.03% to 1049. Nasdaq -0.28% to 2114.
Treasurys: 30-year +0.75%.
10-yr +0.27%. 5-yr +0.22%.
Commodities: Crude -3.92%
to $71.77. Gold +0.9% to $1250.40.
Currencies: Euro +0.1%
vs. dollar. Yen +0.8%. Pound -0.76%.
Ron
Paul to Fed, Ft. Knox: Show Me the Gold
at Minyanville
The
Deteriorating Macro Picture ‘Over the course of the last 18 months I’ve
been adhering to a macro view that can best be summed up as follows:
The rebound in assets was surprisingly strong and the
ability of corporations to sustain bottom line growth has been truly impressive
– far better than I expected. However, I am growing increasingly concerned that
the market has priced in overly optimistic earnings sustainability – in other
words, estimates
and expectations have overshot to the upside.
What we’ve seen over the last few years is not terribly
complex in my opinion. The housing boom created what was in essence a massively
leveraged household sector. The problems were compounded by the leveraging in
the financial sector, however, this was merely a symptom of the real underlying
problem and not the cause of the financial crisis (despite
what Mr. Bernanke continues to say and do to fix the economy) …’
30
Statistics That Prove The Elite Are Getting Richer, The Poor Are Getting Poorer
And The Middle Class Is Being Destroyed Not everyone has been doing badly
during the economic turmoil of the last few years. In fact, there are some
Americans that are doing really, really well. While the vast majority of us
struggle, there is one small segment of society that is seemingly doing better
than ever.
In the Eye of a Financial Katrina - http://seekingalpha.com/author/wall-street-sector-selector
Sunday, August 29th, was the fifth anniversary of Hurricane Katrina’s landfall
along the Gulf Coast and all of us vividly remember the horrific images of that
day and the days and weeks after. Five years later, the Gulf Coast has come a
long way but most would agree there’s still have a long way to go and many
scars yet to be healed. In the world of money and investing, the Financial
Katrina hit three years ago this month with the beginning of the sub prime
meltdown that led to the “Great Recession.” For the past year or so, we
have been in what appeared to be a recovery but now looks more like the eye of
the storm; today it is quite likely that the second wall of the hurricane is
now rapidly bearing down upon us. The news this week was intensely
negative and the only bright spot came on Friday with Chairman Bernanke’s
speech at Jackson Hole in which he essentially told us, “don’t worry, be happy”
and that all would be well. In spite of the Chairman’s calming tone, Wall
Street Sector Selector remains in the “red flag flying” mode and we believe
that an intense storm lies just ahead. Looking
at My Screens On
a technical basis, one can only be bearish and the two charts below tell a
quick and scary story. [ chart courtesy of StockCharts.com ]In the
chart of the S&P 500 above we see the “death cross” highlighted by the
downward pointing arrow wherein the 50-Day Moving Average crossed below the
200-Day Moving Average which is a widely followed indicator of lower stock
prices ahead. In the upper box we see the 14-day RSI pointing upwards from
relatively oversold levels indicating that a short term bounce could be
forthcoming, while the red horizontal line shows the support at 1040 which was
tested and held every day last week. From this display we can conclude that we
are in a bear market, slightly oversold and near support that, if broken, could
lead to a quick drop to the July lows of 1010. [ chart courtesy
of StockCharts.com ] The point and figure chart above paints an even
more ominous picture. A double bottom “sell” signal was generated on August
11th and the index has now broken through the blue bullish support line,
indicating the onset of a new bear market in this major index. Support and
resistance lines in point and figure charting tend to act like firm walls and
mark major turning points in direction, and this recent trend change is the
first since March, 2009, when the lows were hit and last year’s unprecedented
rally began. The breach of this bullish support line is a major development
and in my opinion is an unmistakable sign that it’s time to head for the storm
shelters. The View from 35,000 Feet The fundamental news was equally
shocking this week as existing home sales declined to 3.8 million units for
July from a previous level of 5.26 million. This number is a record low and
single family home sales were at the lowest levels since 1995. Truly we are in
what could only be described as a housing market depression, and this comes in
spite of historically low mortgage rates that people appear to be ignoring.
Seemingly almost nobody wants to buy a house at any rate or any price. New home
sales fared no better, declining to record lows, as well, while 25% of mortgage
holders are currently “upside down” in their homes, owning more than they’re
worth, and 15% are in some part of the foreclosure process. Beyond the dismal
news from the housing market, the July Durable Goods report was dismal and
points to an ongoing slowdown in capital spending and on Friday 2nd Quarter GDP
was revised downward to 1.6% from a previous 2.4% in what could only be
described as a terrifying result in light of the stimulus and Federal Reserve
intervention required to generate this paltry number. More and more
analysts are pointing to further reductions in GDP for 3rd Quarter towards flat
or even negative territory while the stock market seems currently priced for
1.5-2.5% growth and this creates a situation which is unlikely to have a
positive outcome going forward. Looking across the spectrum of noted analysts, we find Princeton
economist and former Federal Reserve member Alan Blinder writing an article in
the Wall Street Journal titled, “The Fed is Running out of Ammo” and noted Yale
economist Robert Shiller appeared on the Wall Street Journal’s “Big Interview”
and said that a double dip “may be imminent.” And finally Albert Edwards, the
noted analyst from Societe General says to look for 450 on the S&P
500, a roll back to 1982 levels. Fidelity reports that in the second quarter
25% of people took hardship withdrawals from their 401ks, a number that
represents a 10 year high, to help them meet living expenses and the ECRI
remained in recessionary territory with a -9.9% reading last week. On Friday
Intel (INTC) cut its earnings and revenue forecast
and across the Atlantic Ireland was downgraded and given a negative outlook by
S&P. Also in Europe, interest rates and Credit Default Swap pricing
continued to rise as their sovereign debt situation continues to erode
confidence in the outcome of the European Central Bank’s historic intervention
efforts of a couple of months ago. The bond market remains priced for
Armageddon, forming what many say will one day be the biggest bubble of all
time and lead to a historic crash in the bond market somewhere down the road.
But on Friday, Dr. Bernanke cheered world markets when he told us that he
expected no double dip, that growth would continue and improve and that he and
his colleagues stood ready to do whatever it takes to avoid deflation and that
he had the tools to lead the global economy to recovery. This upbeat assessment
comes after unprecedented government stimulus, interest rates lowered to near
zero and $1.7 Trillion of asset purchases by the Fed since the onset of the
Great Recession. So one can only wonder how this is going to work. If the
medicine hasn’t worked so far, why would a little more of the same medicine
make a difference? What It All Means As we’ve been saying for weeks, a
double dip looks highly probable with the odds growing daily, lower stock
prices look likely and to make your chest feel even tighter, summer is almost
over, traders will be back from the Hamptons, the kids will be back in school
and we’re about to enter the dreaded month of September which is historically
the worst month for stock market performance. At Wall Street Sector
Selector, we remain in the “Red Flag” mode, expecting lower prices ahead, and
we forecast that the second storm wall of the Financial Katrina is about to
hit. The Week Ahead To say that a major week lies ahead is a massive understatement. Economic
Reports: A busy
round of economic reports this week will give us a look at personal income and
spending, home prices, manufacturing and what the Federal Reserve really
thought at their recent meeting with everything leading up to the climactic Non
Farm Payroll report on Friday. Certainly all of this will be food for thought
going into the long Labor Day weekend. Tuesday: 0900: Case/Shiller 20 City Home Price
Index 0945: August Chicago PMI 1000: August Consumer Confidence. 1400: FOMC
Meeting Minutes Wednesday: 0815: July Construction Spending 1000: August ISM Index
1400: August Auto Sales Thursday: 0830: Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims
1000: July Factory Orders 1000: July Pending Home Sales Friday:
0830: August Non Farm Payrolls 0830: August
Unemployment Rate 1000: ISM Services Sector Spotlight: Leaders: Silver, Oil, Copper Laggards: Mexico, Global Shipping, South Korea
This week we’re heading for Southwest Florida for a last week of R&R before
school starts and reality strikes after the long Labor Day weekend. We hope to
have a nice time on the beach and not see any tar balls between our toes. Sadly,
I’m sure this year’s Labor Day celebration won’t be a particularly happy
occasion for the 14.6 million of our fellow citizens who remain unemployed and
I can only wish them the very best and a speedy return to gainful employment
and happier days ahead. Disclosure: RWM, PSQ, SH, SEF, EFZ, SKF, VXX,
S&P 500 Put Option
Car
sales, spending up, but experts not convinced of trend (Washington Post) [
I’d say time for ‘mouth to mouth
resuscitation’ and a closer look isn’t even necessary. Some experts? Just ask
any guy on main street. Treading water? I’d say time for post-mortem on the
drowning victim.] But a closer look at those car sales raises questions about
whether the auto market - and consumer spending as a whole - are indeed on an
upward arc or whether they are just treading water.
In
the Middle East, it's still 1947 (Washington
Post) [ Indeed it should be! Among the few
times the cia was correct, and they’ve been trying to put square pegs in round
holes ever since, to america’s substantial detriment. I wonder what what those
american sailors of the US Liberty killed by the israelis would say? USS
Liberty Survivor Threatened by Unknown Israeli This is what happened to Phillip F. Tourney, decorated war hero
and survivor of Israel’s premeditated attack on the USS Liberty 43 years ago.
On the evening of Aug. 6, Tourney was verbally threatened by a foreign national
claiming to work for the government of israel. As for the purported disdain
shown for war mongerer netanayahu, if only wobama’s actions matched his words,
the same would represent a major plus for him and the nation of america, so
sorely in need of pluses whether the same be budgetary or economic or
geopolitical. In fact, for America to abrogate 1948 would guarantee America’s
survival, prosperity, and global hegemony in the most positive sense. ]
Is Ben Lost? [Yes!]
Butter ‘The much awaited
speech by Ben Bernanke, on Friday, was a bit of a non-event. It was
interesting, however, to see the 30 Year bounce, from 3.55% to 3.7%, the moment
that Ben explained his cunning plan to push long-term interest rates down. But
at least we learned that $140 billion of the $1.25 billion the Fed advanced to
buy agency debt and MBS, got repaid. One question Ben: “How much did you pay
for the $140 billion that got repaid? Did you make a profit, or are you going
to wait until Ron Paul’s audit before you let us know how that went?.” I know
I’ve got a dirty mind, but I can’t help thinking that if Ben had made a profit
on that transaction, he would have been crowing about it. I loved this bit,
particularly the “Thus”:
Economy Caught in Depression, Not Recession: Rosenberg Positive
gross domestic product readings and other mildly hopeful signs are masking an
ugly truth: The US economy is in a 1930s-style Depression, Gluskin Sheff
economist David Rosenberg said Tuesday. ‘Positive gross domestic product
readings and other mildly hopeful signs are masking an ugly truth: The US
economy is in a 1930s-style Depression, Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg
said Tuesday. Writing in his daily briefing to investors, Rosenberg said the
Great Depression also had its high points, with a series of positive GDP
reports and sharp stock market gains. But then as now, those signs of recovery
were unsustainable and only provided a false sense of stability, said
Rosenberg. Rosenberg calls current economic conditions
“a depression, and not just some garden-variety recession,” and notes
that any good news both during the initial 1929-33 recession and the one that
began in 2008 triggered “euphoric response.”
Here’s a new piece of the dismally murky puzzle which belies
a previous raison d’etre for rally: Greek
Bonds Slump As Austerity Backfires, Country Enters “Death Spiral”, And The
Violent End Game Approaches . Previously, Walmart same store sales were actually down (overseas
results were up), and, think about it. Isn’t Walmart, as essentially an
american based sales agent of china products a ‘contrarian indicator’ for the
the u.s.; that is , hasn’t Walmart’s rise coincided with american main street’s
demise. Similarly, fraudulent wall street high frequency churn and earn
programmed trade scams among many other
frauds as yet unprosecuted has heralded the death knell for american
business and the economy, generally. Old news at best and, that ‘not bad as expected, better than expected dog
don’t hunt no more’! ‘YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]:
… Retailers were also strong. As a group retailers climbed 1.8%. Discount
retail giant and Dow component Wal-Mart (WMT 51.02, +0.61) was
a solid performer on the back of in-line earnings and an improved
forecast. Home improvement retailer and
fellow Dow component Home Depot (HD 28.31, +0.93) had a more positive influence over
retailers. It posted better-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter, but
issued a rather mixed forecast. A smaller-than-expected increase in housing
starts during July didn't do anything to derail the stock this session. Housing
starts for July increased 1.7% month-over-month to an annualized rate of
546,000 units, which is less than the rate of 555,000 units that had been
widely anticipated. Building permits for July fell 3.1% month-over-month to an
annualized rate of 565,000, which is below the rate of 573,000 that had been
expected…’ But, just a push of the computer programmed trade button and off we go,
reality / valuation / economics be damned. In real security analysis (very
simplified / summarized), as opposed to the continued frauds on wall street,
one must begin with the largest and most significant aggregate (a simple word
picture / analogy: ‘rising tide lifts all boats’). If you get this right, the
probabilities in your favor are substantially enhanced. From there, you want
leading industries, and leading companies within said leading industries
(again, larger aggregates then picks, to enhance probabilities, not guarantees,
in your favor). Your time frame, 1-3-5 yrs tops for projections, (including
income statement/EPS, balance sheet, and applying an appropriate P/E – a
detailed, multi-faceted approach beyond what could be described in this
summary); and, that’s all they are, projections. Beyond that time frame, your
guess. On fraudulent wall street, every day, though already discounted in large
part (6-8 mos, approx.), the market spins, churns, and with lightning fast
computerized high-frequency trade programs commissions in huge volumes like no
other time in financial history when real valuation meant something, with no
net economic value added, but very lucrative to the frauds on wall street,
which ultimately is a net detriment to the economy / the nation /and other
industries as we’ve seen and as described elsewhere on this site and in these
posts http://albertpeia.com
. Preposterously, they even sometimes refer to seasonal factors as if hearing
them for the first time and ‘explaining’ an up move (almost invariably already
discounted). Today, they shrugged off the deepening economic reality despite the
election year frothing / manipulations. This
is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression.
The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market.
This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes
with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and
sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato
scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise,
will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are
criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. ].
In the Eye of a Financial Katrina - http://seekingalpha.com/author/wall-street-sector-selector
Sunday, August 29th, was the fifth anniversary of Hurricane Katrina’s landfall
along the Gulf Coast and all of us vividly remember the horrific images of that
day and the days and weeks after. Five years later, the Gulf Coast has come a
long way but most would agree there’s still have a long way to go and many
scars yet to be healed. In the world of money and investing, the Financial
Katrina hit three years ago this month with the beginning of the sub prime
meltdown that led to the “Great Recession.” For the past year or so, we
have been in what appeared to be a recovery but now looks more like the eye of
the storm; today it is quite likely that the second wall of the hurricane is
now rapidly bearing down upon us. The news this week was intensely
negative and the only bright spot came on Friday with Chairman Bernanke’s
speech at Jackson Hole in which he essentially told us, “don’t worry, be happy”
and that all would be well. In spite of the Chairman’s calming tone, Wall
Street Sector Selector remains in the “red flag flying” mode and we believe
that an intense storm lies just ahead. Looking
at My Screens On
a technical basis, one can only be bearish and the two charts below tell a
quick and scary story. [ chart courtesy of StockCharts.com ]In the
chart of the S&P 500 above we see the “death cross” highlighted by the
downward pointing arrow wherein the 50-Day Moving Average crossed below the
200-Day Moving Average which is a widely followed indicator of lower stock
prices ahead. In the upper box we see the 14-day RSI pointing upwards from
relatively oversold levels indicating that a short term bounce could be
forthcoming, while the red horizontal line shows the support at 1040 which was
tested and held every day last week. From this display we can conclude that we
are in a bear market, slightly oversold and near support that, if broken, could
lead to a quick drop to the July lows of 1010. [ chart courtesy
of StockCharts.com ] The point and figure chart above paints an even
more ominous picture. A double bottom “sell” signal was generated on August
11th and the index has now broken through the blue bullish support line,
indicating the onset of a new bear market in this major index. Support and
resistance lines in point and figure charting tend to act like firm walls and
mark major turning points in direction, and this recent trend change is the
first since March, 2009, when the lows were hit and last year’s unprecedented
rally began. The breach of this bullish support line is a major development
and in my opinion is an unmistakable sign that it’s time to head for the storm
shelters. The View from 35,000 Feet The fundamental news was equally
shocking this week as existing home sales declined to 3.8 million units for
July from a previous level of 5.26 million. This number is a record low and
single family home sales were at the lowest levels since 1995. Truly we are in
what could only be described as a housing market depression, and this comes in
spite of historically low mortgage rates that people appear to be ignoring.
Seemingly almost nobody wants to buy a house at any rate or any price. New home
sales fared no better, declining to record lows, as well, while 25% of mortgage
holders are currently “upside down” in their homes, owning more than they’re
worth, and 15% are in some part of the foreclosure process. Beyond the dismal
news from the housing market, the July Durable Goods report was dismal and
points to an ongoing slowdown in capital spending and on Friday 2nd Quarter GDP
was revised downward to 1.6% from a previous 2.4% in what could only be
described as a terrifying result in light of the stimulus and Federal Reserve
intervention required to generate this paltry number. More and more
analysts are pointing to further reductions in GDP for 3rd Quarter towards flat
or even negative territory while the stock market seems currently priced for
1.5-2.5% growth and this creates a situation which is unlikely to have a
positive outcome going forward. Looking across the spectrum of noted analysts, we find Princeton
economist and former Federal Reserve member Alan Blinder writing an article in
the Wall Street Journal titled, “The Fed is Running out of Ammo” and noted Yale
economist Robert Shiller appeared on the Wall Street Journal’s “Big Interview”
and said that a double dip “may be imminent.” And finally Albert Edwards, the
noted analyst from Societe General says to look for 450 on the S&P
500, a roll back to 1982 levels. Fidelity reports that in the second quarter 25%
of people took hardship withdrawals from their 401ks, a number that represents
a 10 year high, to help them meet living expenses and the ECRI remained in
recessionary territory with a -9.9% reading last week. On Friday Intel (INTC) cut its earnings and revenue forecast
and across the Atlantic Ireland was downgraded and given a negative outlook by
S&P. Also in Europe, interest rates and Credit Default Swap pricing
continued to rise as their sovereign debt situation continues to erode
confidence in the outcome of the European Central Bank’s historic intervention
efforts of a couple of months ago. The bond market remains priced for
Armageddon, forming what many say will one day be the biggest bubble of all
time and lead to a historic crash in the bond market somewhere down the road.
But on Friday, Dr. Bernanke cheered world markets when he told us that he
expected no double dip, that growth would continue and improve and that he and
his colleagues stood ready to do whatever it takes to avoid deflation and that
he had the tools to lead the global economy to recovery. This upbeat assessment
comes after unprecedented government stimulus, interest rates lowered to near
zero and $1.7 Trillion of asset purchases by the Fed since the onset of the
Great Recession. So one can only wonder how this is going to work. If the
medicine hasn’t worked so far, why would a little more of the same medicine
make a difference? What It All Means As we’ve been saying for weeks, a
double dip looks highly probable with the odds growing daily, lower stock
prices look likely and to make your chest feel even tighter, summer is almost
over, traders will be back from the Hamptons, the kids will be back in school
and we’re about to enter the dreaded month of September which is historically
the worst month for stock market performance. At Wall Street Sector
Selector, we remain in the “Red Flag” mode, expecting lower prices ahead, and
we forecast that the second storm wall of the Financial Katrina is about to
hit. The Week Ahead To say that a major week lies ahead is a massive understatement. Economic
Reports: A busy
round of economic reports this week will give us a look at personal income and
spending, home prices, manufacturing and what the Federal Reserve really
thought at their recent meeting with everything leading up to the climactic Non
Farm Payroll report on Friday. Certainly all of this will be food for thought
going into the long Labor Day weekend. Tuesday: 0900: Case/Shiller 20 City Home Price
Index 0945: August Chicago PMI 1000: August Consumer Confidence. 1400: FOMC
Meeting Minutes Wednesday: 0815: July Construction Spending 1000: August ISM Index
1400: August Auto Sales Thursday: 0830: Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims
1000: July Factory Orders 1000: July Pending Home Sales Friday:
0830: August Non Farm Payrolls 0830: August
Unemployment Rate 1000: ISM Services Sector Spotlight: Leaders: Silver, Oil, Copper Laggards: Mexico, Global Shipping, South Korea
This week we’re heading for Southwest Florida for a last week of R&R before
school starts and reality strikes after the long Labor Day weekend. We hope to
have a nice time on the beach and not see any tar balls between our toes. Sadly,
I’m sure this year’s Labor Day celebration won’t be a particularly happy
occasion for the 14.6 million of our fellow citizens who remain unemployed and
I can only wish them the very best and a speedy return to gainful employment
and happier days ahead. Disclosure: RWM, PSQ, SH, SEF, EFZ, SKF, VXX,
S&P 500 Put Option
China’s
Central Bank Chief Rumored To Have Defected Rumors have circulated in China
that People’s Bank of China Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan has left the country. The
rumors appear to have started following reports on Aug. 28 which cited Ming
Pao, a Hong Kong-based news agency, saying that because of an approximately
$430 billion loss on U.S. Treasury bonds, the Chinese government may punish
some individuals within the PBOC, including Zhou.
Drudgereport: Ron
Paul questions whether there's gold at Fort Knox, NY Fed...
Dow Falls
140 Points; Banks, Industrials Slide...
1
OUT OF 6 TAKE GOV'T AID...
Homelessness
Up 50% In New York City...
OBAMA
BLAMES BUSH AGAIN FOR ECONOMY … [ bush (et als) does deserve blame but with
flawed pro-fraudulent wall street among other non-policies and continued
nation-bankrupting war, wobama is a distinction without a difference and has
bought it and can no longer shirk responsibility with the blame game ] ...
Iran
state media call French first lady prostitute...
EDUCATION
SEC URGED STAFF: GO TO SHARPTON RALLY
We’re Already In Recession [actually a depression] Harding ‘‘First let’s look at the
trend. After an unusual four straight quarters of negative growth in the
severe 2008-2009 recession, the recession ended in the September quarter of
last year when GDP managed fragile growth of 1.6% for the quarter, and then
improved to 5.0% growth in the December quarter.It was understood that much of
that growth was temporary, fueled by government spending, and spending by
consumers provided with government bonuses and rebates, as well as temporary
rebuilding of inventories by businesses. But it was expected that with that
jumpstart the recovery could continue on its own legs.So, it was a bit of a
surprise when GDP growth slowed to 3.7% in the March quarter of this year while
those programs were still having an influence. But economists still expected
the economy would grow at a 3% pace in the June quarter even with those
programs winding down, and for the rest of the year.So, it was a real
disappointment when second quarter growth was reported a month ago as
having been only 2.4%. Plus, when additional data became available for
May and June, the last two months of the second quarter, and those reports
were increasingly negative, economists predicted that Q2 GDP growth would be
revised down to only 1.3%.On Friday, the revision was released, and it showed
growth last quarter slowed significantly, but only to 1.6%, not as bad as the
latest forecast.The media and the stock market, starving for good news–and with
the market short-term oversold after being down 10 of the previous 13 days–took
it as a positive. But let’s get real.The issue is not whether economists
got their forecast right or wrong, but the degree to which economic growth is
slowing. And a trend of 5% growth in the December quarter, followed by a 1.3%
decline to 3.7% growth in the March quarter, followed by a 2.1% decline to 1.6%
growth in the March quarter is a chilling rate of decline.Now factor in that
economic reports so far for July and August, the first two months of the third
quarter, have been significantly worse than those of May and June, and
significantly worse than economists’ forecasts, with the relapse pretty much
across the board; in the housing industry, manufacturing, retail sales,
consumer and business confidence, the decline in U.S. exports, and so on.It’s
not a stretch then to think that economic growth is declining by another
increment of more than 1.6% this quarter, which would have it in negative
territory, already in recession.In his speech Friday morning at the annual
economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Fed Chairman Bernanke, while
saying he still expects the economy to grow in the second half “albeit at a relatively
modest pace” did not put forth a very convincing argument, using such phrases
as “painfully slow recovery in the labor market”. . . “economic projections are
inherently uncertain”. . . . “the economy is vulnerable to unexpected
developments” . . . “the recovery is less vigorous than we expected.”Nor did he
seem confident that the Fed’s depleted arsenal of tools to re-stimulate the
economy would be effective if needed. Two of the four possible actions he
mentioned seemed to suggest consumers and markets could be fooled into
confidence with mere talk.His brief list of four possible actions were, “1)
conducting additional purchases of longer-term securities [bonds and
mortgage-related securities]; 2) modifying the Fed’s FOMC meeting
communications to investors; 3) reducing the interest the Fed pays banks on
their excess reserves. And I will also comment of a fourth strategy, proposed
by several economists- namely, that the Fed increase its inflation
goals.”Providing details on two of the four possible actions, he said, “The
Fed’s current statement after its FOMC meetings reflects the FOMC’s
anticipation that exceptionally low interest rates will be warranted ‘for an
extended period’ . . . A step the Committee could consider if conditions called
for it, would be to modify the language to communicate to investors that it
anticipates keeping the target for the federal funds rate low for a longer
period of time.”As for the fourth possible action in his list of four, he said
the Fed could alter the phrases it uses to communicate its goals for inflation
by “increasing its medium-term inflation goals above levels consistent with
price stability.”That’s scary stuff if those are two of the four actions the
Fed sees as its best options to re-stimulate the economy.Also of concern, in
its report revising Q2 GDP growth down to just 1.6%, the Commerce Department
reported that corporate earnings declined significantly in the second quarter,
after-tax earnings rising just 0.1%, compared to the gain of 11.4% in the first
quarter. Meanwhile, Wall Street continues to ratchet up its earnings
estimates.On the positive side, consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of
the economy, rose 2% in the second quarter, compared to 1.9% in the first
quarter. But the bad news is that the reports since, on consumer confidence and
retail sales in July and August, have been big disappointments.Putting it all
together, don’t be surprised if a couple of months down the road we learn the
economy was already in recession in the current quarter.’
Previously
reported economic growth, upon which hundreds of rally ‘points’ were
predicated, revised down by 50% of the actual 1.6%. This is typical but no
small laughing matter which bespeaks the wayward ways of wall street that got
us to this debacle which also includes defacto bankruptcy of the nation. So,
GDP down, consumer confidence down, and stocks rally like no tomorrow (which is
the fraudulent wall street time horizon … they’ll just commission on the way
down). Am I missing something here, particularly when a more sobering view from
a rational player, INTEL, is far more credible. One former fed chair likened
no-recession-helicopter ben bernanke’s factually deficient, empty words to ‘a
doctor telling a patient he’s not sure of what the problem is (that economic
uncertainty thing he referenced), but if his leg gets worse he can always
amputate.’Previously, as pertains to the jackson hole no-recession-helicopter-ben
b*** s*** non-event / talk. Fed action signals new activism (Washington
Post) [ Riiiiight! The activist fed! That’s all we need. As if we needed more
of what brought us to this point! Certainly the fed’s role in the continuing
and current financial crisis / debacle cannot be ignored or disputed. Nothing
like a hegelian methodology to create
the very problems for which they are called upon to offer solutions, increasing
their sense of importance, and concentrating power thereby. (Think about it. It
is really rather quite absurd that each meeting time the financial markets hold
their bated breath for these incompetent boobs). Then there’s the cover-up with
an opportunity for enrichment of some, usually the tight-lipped yes-men then
ever after and forever bonded in what becomes tantamount to an almost fraternal
link by ‘virtue’ of the crime thereby. No, I’m not saying their initial
missteps were necessarily badly intended, but the manipulations thereafter to
obfuscate their incompetence (senile greenspun, no-recession-helicopter-ben,
etc.) comes at a great price and is nothing less than tantamount to or just
outright crime. I’d abolish the fed without hesitation or compunction. After
all, at this point of decline and defacto bankruptcy of the nation you
certainly can’t point to success nor argue their indispensability. Then there’s
also the missing trillions, over-printing of fiat currency, and all that sub
rosa activity with the worthless fraudulent toxic paper which I believe is
being supplanted with ultimately hard currency to the great benefit of the
frauds and great detriment to the nation.]
U.S. Stock Market T. Rowe Price: Week Ended August 27, 2010 Stock
prices declined overall for the week, although small-caps managed a modest
gain. Markets declined to multi-week lows on Tuesday when the National
Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales had declined 27% in
July. The steeper-than-expected drop raised fears that a "double dip"
in the housing sector—now that homebuyer tax incentives have ended—might drag
the broader economy back into recession as well. Investors also responded to
sharp drops in overseas markets brought about by a rise in the yen, which
promised to further weaken the export-driven Japanese economy, as well as a
downgrade in Ireland's sovereign credit rating. The bad news on the housing
sector was buttressed Wednesday when the government announced that new home
construction had fallen to its lowest level on record in July. The government
also reported that durable goods orders had declined 3.8% during the month once
the volatile transportation category was removed. Better economic news arrived
Thursday when the Labor Department reported a sharp drop in weekly jobless
claims. Investors continued to drive stock prices lower, however, perhaps in
response to a report showing a decline in manufacturing activity in the Kansas
City region. Markets regained some momentum on Friday when Federal Reserve
Chairman Bernanke announced in a speech that the central bank "will do all
that it can" to ensure the economic recovery continues. Sentiment may have
also gotten a boost from the Commerce Department's revised estimate of economic
growth in the second quarter. While the estimate was revised lower, from an
annualized growth rate of 2.4% to 1.6%, the decline was not as great as some
had feared.
U.S. Stocks1 |
|||
Index2 |
Friday's
Close |
Week's
Change |
%
Change |
DJIA |
10150.65 |
-62.97 |
-2.66% |
S&P 500 |
1064.59 |
-7.10 |
-4.53% |
NASDAQ Composite |
2153.63 |
-26.13 |
-5.09% |
S&P MidCap 400 |
734.30 |
-2.22 |
1.05% |
Russell 2000 |
617.08 |
6.41 |
-2.68% |
Drudgereport:
Analyst:
CITIGROUP 'Cooking the Books'...
Banks
back switch to renminbi for trade; Incentives to move from dollar and euro...
THE
SPEECH: Bernanke under pressure to prop it up...
'RECOVERY
SUMMER' ENDS SICK
GDP
REVISION: 1.6%
Says
recovery softer, Fed prepared to buy more...
Weaker
GDP raises stakes...
WIRE:
What Biden didn't
mention on stimulus...
ZUCKERMAN:
The Most Fiscally Irresponsible Government in History … along with bushes’...
Joint
Chiefs Chairman: National Debt is a Security Threat...
Recession
pushes US birth rate to new low...
RECOVERY
BUMMER: Youth employment lowest since 1948...
Thousands line up before dawn for mortgage help in Palm Beach
County...
Chossudovsky:
China could already be world’s largest economy
Is
the U.S. Bankrupt? [YES!] (at Motley Fool)
The Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts recently reported that
bankruptcy filings between April and June hit a four-year high. Consumer
bankruptcies rose 21 percent while business bankruptcies increased eight
percent. The list of corporate bankruptcies over the last couple of years
includes big names like Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual, and GM. And financial institutions like
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Wells
Fargo (NYSE: WFC) received billions of dollars
through the federal government's Troubled Asset Relief Program. Should
investors add the U.S. government to that list of big name bankruptcies? I recently asked
Boston University economics professor Lawrence Kotlikoff, author of Jimmy Stewart is Dead: Ending the World's Ongoing
Financial Plague with Limited Purpose Banking.
Mac Greer: Larry, I noticed the headline or the title of a recent article
that you wrote, US is Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It. So with that
in mind, what is your take on the economy these days?
Larry Kotlikoff: Well there is a lot of uncertainty, as rightfully there should
be. We have seen the financial sector implode basically because of the
systematic production and sale of trillions of dollars of fraudulent securities
under the cover of proprietary information, so nobody really had the ability to
look inside big companies like Bear Sterns or Merrill Lynch to see exactly what
they owned or owed. That problem remains today, even with the passage of
Dodd-Frank. There is no requirement that the financial industry come clean with
respect to what it is doing with our money, so every major financial player says
you can't see what we are doing because we have the Midas touch. We are going
to beat the market, and if we show you, everybody will see our secret formula
for making you a mint. As a result, they have a great cover to produce
fraudulent securities. And then when there is a sniff of fraud, one can easily
presume that everything they are doing is fraudulent, which may not at all be
the case. And then there is a run against those institutions as we saw with
Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers and all the other ones because of the
perception that so much of their holdings were fraudulent and that their
reporting was fraudulent. And of course the rating companies and the regulators
and the boards of directors and the members of Congress were all, in effect, in
bed with each other to achieve this result. I don't see anything that has
fundamentally changed, so that is one major area of fragility. We could have
another meltdown in the financial market tomorrow because as Dick Fuld [Lehman
former CEO] said, he claims that their balance sheet was just fine and that
this was all just a panic, it was not connected with any facts. Well, he said
that every institution on Wall Street ---
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), JP
Morgan (NYSE: JPM) -- could have experienced the same thing.
His concern about this happening to other companies is well taken. So we have a
financial system that is set up to fail again, and we have a fiscal situation
which is a complete and dire mess. It could lead to a financial panic that
could lead to a much bigger meltdown of the financial system than we have seen.
Greer: Is the U.S. bankrupt?
Kotlikoff: Bankruptcy means not being able to pay your future bills. If
you can't pay your current bills, your creditors are already after you so you
already are bankrupt. If you can't pay your future bills, that really is
the operational definition of going bankrupt or being bankrupt. The U.S.
government can't pay its future bills. These bills, in total, in present value,
exceed the revenues by $202 trillion. This is based on taking the data
projected by CBO (Congressional Budget Office) back on June 26 of this year, when
they put out their alternative fiscal scenario, which is their best long-term
projection of government spending, including servicing the official debt, and
government revenues. And if you present value the differential between spending
and revenues, including extrapolating beyond their projection which is
important to do, you get a fiscal gap of $202 trillion. To come up with
$202 trillion in present value, you'd have to immediately and permanently
double all taxes we have. You'd have to do it immediately. We're talking
here about running a 5% GDP surplus this year instead of running a 9% deficit.
So I don't see that happening. We have to cut spending or we have to print
money. Either way you're cutting spending so either way you're, in effect, reining
in spending promises. And that suits my definition of bankruptcy. And I think
there are ways of cutting spending and getting our fiscal house in order but we
need to engage in radical surgery here and not putting on the band-aid that
this administration is so fond of.
Greer: One of our Motley Fool writers recently interviewed Euro Pacific Capital President Peter
Schiff. In 2006, he was predicting the economic downturn, and he now
says that we are, "In the early stages of a depression now. It is going to
be a horrific experience for average Americans who are going to watch their
standard of living plunge." Do you agree?
Kotlikoff: Well, this has been a depression so far for millions of
Americans. It didn't have to happen. It is really man-made. We have the same
physical capital and human capital sitting here in place. We don't have to stay
in a depressed state. The problem is that things are not coordinated. We don't
have buyers optimistic about getting paid salaries and we don't have sellers
optimistic about being able to find buyers, so everybody is kind of sitting on
their hands. We can have some, a bunch of KISS's, which are "keep it simple,
stupid" solutions to our problems, and lots of people throughout the
country realize this, that we need to fix things fundamentally. We can't do it
with 2,000 page bills that make bureaucratic structures that are basically
clogging up our economic arteries, even more bureaucratic…
China
Buys Euros as Fear of World Depression Grows Webster G.
Tarpley | The one certainty
is that there is no recovery, and that the second wave of a world economic
depression dominates the world.
Economy Caught in Depression, Not Recession: Rosenberg Positive
gross domestic product readings and other mildly hopeful signs are masking an
ugly truth: The US economy is in a 1930s-style Depression, Gluskin Sheff
economist David Rosenberg said Tuesday. ‘Positive gross domestic product
readings and other mildly hopeful signs are masking an ugly truth: The US
economy is in a 1930s-style Depression, Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg
said Tuesday. Writing in his daily briefing to investors, Rosenberg said the
Great Depression also had its high points, with a series of positive GDP
reports and sharp stock market gains. But then as now, those signs of recovery
were unsustainable and only provided a false sense of stability, said
Rosenberg. Rosenberg calls current economic conditions
“a depression, and not just some garden-variety recession,” and notes
that any good news both during the initial 1929-33 recession and the one that
began in 2008 triggered “euphoric response.”
Is
the U.S. Bankrupt? [YES!] (at Motley Fool)
The Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts recently reported that
bankruptcy filings between April and June hit a four-year high. Consumer
bankruptcies rose 21 percent while business bankruptcies increased eight
percent. The list of corporate bankruptcies over the last couple of years
includes big names like Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual, and GM. And financial institutions like
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Wells
Fargo (NYSE: WFC) received billions of dollars
through the federal government's Troubled Asset Relief Program. Should
investors add the U.S. government to that list of big name bankruptcies? I recently asked
Boston University economics professor Lawrence Kotlikoff, author of Jimmy Stewart is Dead: Ending the World's Ongoing
Financial Plague with Limited Purpose Banking.
Mac Greer: Larry, I noticed the headline or the title of a recent article
that you wrote, US is Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It. So with that
in mind, what is your take on the economy these days?
Larry Kotlikoff: Well there is a lot of uncertainty, as rightfully there should
be. We have seen the financial sector implode basically because of the
systematic production and sale of trillions of dollars of fraudulent securities
under the cover of proprietary information, so nobody really had the ability to
look inside big companies like Bear Sterns or Merrill Lynch to see exactly what
they owned or owed. That problem remains today, even with the passage of
Dodd-Frank. There is no requirement that the financial industry come clean with
respect to what it is doing with our money, so every major financial player
says you can't see what we are doing because we have the Midas touch. We are
going to beat the market, and if we show you, everybody will see our secret
formula for making you a mint. As a result, they have a great cover to produce
fraudulent securities. And then when there is a sniff of fraud, one can easily
presume that everything they are doing is fraudulent, which may not at all be
the case. And then there is a run against those institutions as we saw with
Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers and all the other ones because of the
perception that so much of their holdings were fraudulent and that their
reporting was fraudulent. And of course the rating companies and the regulators
and the boards of directors and the members of Congress were all, in effect, in
bed with each other to achieve this result. I don't see anything that has
fundamentally changed, so that is one major area of fragility. We could have
another meltdown in the financial market tomorrow because as Dick Fuld [Lehman
former CEO] said, he claims that their balance sheet was just fine and that
this was all just a panic, it was not connected with any facts. Well, he said
that every institution on Wall Street ---
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), JP
Morgan (NYSE: JPM) -- could have experienced the same thing.
His concern about this happening to other companies is well taken. So we have a
financial system that is set up to fail again, and we have a fiscal situation
which is a complete and dire mess. It could lead to a financial panic that
could lead to a much bigger meltdown of the financial system than we have seen.
Greer: Is the U.S. bankrupt?
Kotlikoff: Bankruptcy means not being able to pay your future bills. If
you can't pay your current bills, your creditors are already after you so you
already are bankrupt. If you can't pay your future bills, that really is
the operational definition of going bankrupt or being bankrupt. The U.S.
government can't pay its future bills. These bills, in total, in present value,
exceed the revenues by $202 trillion. This is based on taking the data
projected by CBO (Congressional Budget Office) back on June 26 of this year,
when they put out their alternative fiscal scenario, which is their best
long-term projection of government spending, including servicing the official
debt, and government revenues. And if you present value the differential
between spending and revenues, including extrapolating beyond their projection
which is important to do, you get a fiscal gap of $202 trillion. To come
up with $202 trillion in present value, you'd have to immediately and
permanently double all taxes we have. You'd have to do it immediately.
We're talking here about running a 5% GDP surplus this year instead of running
a 9% deficit. So I don't see that happening. We have to cut spending or we have
to print money. Either way you're cutting spending so either way you're, in
effect, reining in spending promises. And that suits my definition of
bankruptcy. And I think there are ways of cutting spending and getting our
fiscal house in order but we need to engage in radical surgery here and not
putting on the band-aid that this administration is so fond of.
Greer: One of our Motley Fool writers recently interviewed Euro Pacific Capital President Peter
Schiff. In 2006, he was predicting the economic downturn, and he now
says that we are, "In the early stages of a depression now. It is going to
be a horrific experience for average Americans who are going to watch their
standard of living plunge." Do you agree?
Kotlikoff: Well, this has been a depression so far for millions of
Americans. It didn't have to happen. It is really man-made. We have the same
physical capital and human capital sitting here in place. We don't have to stay
in a depressed state. The problem is that things are not coordinated. We don't
have buyers optimistic about getting paid salaries and we don't have sellers
optimistic about being able to find buyers, so everybody is kind of sitting on
their hands. We can have some, a bunch of KISS's, which are "keep it
simple, stupid" solutions to our problems, and lots of people throughout
the country realize this, that we need to fix things fundamentally. We can't do
it with 2,000 page bills that make bureaucratic structures that are basically
clogging up our economic arteries, even more bureaucratic…
Bulls: 'This Is Where We Fight' - Dave's Daily Critical levels of support were
broken Thursday for the Dow Industrials 30 (10K, psychological) and S&P 500
(1050). There's a day left in the week when GDP and Confidence data will be
delivered and Bernanke will speak. This makes tomorrow's action
(notwithstanding a possible Fed surprise before the open Monday) where bulls
must fight to hold things together. It's getting that serious. Jobless Claims
were better than forecast but through it all they're still just crawling along
the ocean floor. But, it gave bulls a headline to boost things early only to
see conviction fade later as selling took hold. The Fed also launched another POMO
of only $1.4 billion which gave Primary Dealers some cash to work with. What's
the point? The Treasury sells and the Fed buys--a silly Keynesian Ponzi Scheme
that accomplishes what? …
Stocks Drop as Economic Worries Dog Market Midnight Trader 4:26 PM, Aug 26, 2010 --
GLOBAL
SENTIMENT
UPSIDE MOVERS
(+) F details expansion in India, Thailand.
(+) BOBE hikes dividend.
(+) BW gets analyst upgrade.
(+) MNTA gets favorable judge ruling in Sanofi-Aventis case.
(+) ALXA getting payment related to Staccato license.
(+) NFLX app now on iPhone, iPod Touch.
(+) PAYX upgraded.
DOWNSIDE
MOVERS
(-) GES extending evening declines that followed mixed guidance, earnings beat.
(-) APWR misses revenue expectations, backs guidance.
(-) SCON prices shares.
(-) FRED reports Q2 results that top the year-ago quarter, match expectations.
(-) PAR gains then falls amid Dell's (DELL)
increased $24.30 per share offer.
(-) GIGM swings to loss.
(-) TRMA files bankruptcy.
MARKET
DIRECTION
Stocks end lower as the major indexes give up early-session gains. Investors
were initially charged, following favorable jobless claims data, but couldn't
shake bearish concerns that have bedeviled the market over the past couple of
weeks.
Stocks were buoyed by a decline in the number of people filing first-time
claims for unemployment benefits by 31,000 to 473,000 in the latest week. It
was the first decline in a month, according to Labor Department data.
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected initial claims to drop to
490,000 in the week ended Aug 21.
The less-volatile four-week average of initial claims rose 3,250 to 486,750.
Altogether, 10.2 million people were collecting some type of unemployment
benefits in the week ended Aug. 7, up from 9.9 million.
Also, mortgage rates continued to skid, falling to 4.36% this week, the lowest
rate on a 30-year fixed loan in decades, according to Freddie Mac. The rate was
4.42% last week and has now declined for nine of the last 10 weeks.
Deal news dominated the tape, and topping the headlines, 3PAR (PAR) accepted Dell's (DELL)
increased offer to acquire the storage leader for $24.30 per share in cash, or
approximately $1.6 billion, net of PAR's cash. The deal is expected to close
before the end of the year. Based on current estimates, the transaction is
expected to be accretive to DELL's non-GAAP earnings by its Fiscal Year 2012.
After the bell, H-P (HPQ) countered with a revised $27 a share bid.
Cisco Systems (CSCO) is buying privately held ExtendMedia for
an undisclosed sum. ExtendMedia will become a core component of Cisco's
next-generation video architecture, the company said. The transaction is
expected to close in the first half of Cisco's fiscal 2011.
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) will pay an undisclosed sum to buy
Stratavia, a privately held database technology company based in Denver. H-P
says the acquisition will strengthen the HP Software and Solutions portfolio,
adding deployment, configuration and management solutions for enterprise databases,
middleware and packaged applications.
Lastly, Novartis (NVS) is moving ahead with a contentious buyout of Alcon
(ACL) after
completing its acquisition of stock from Nestle, according to a Reuters report.
Previously, as pertains to
the jackson hole no-recession-helicopter-ben b*** s*** non-event / talk. Fed action signals new activism (Washington
Post) [ Riiiiight! The activist fed! That’s all we need. As if we needed more
of what brought us to this point! Certainly the fed’s role in the continuing and
current financial crisis / debacle cannot be ignored or disputed. Nothing like
a hegelian methodology to create the
very problems for which they are called upon to offer solutions, increasing
their sense of importance, and concentrating power thereby. (Think about it. It
is really rather quite absurd that each meeting time the financial markets hold
their bated breath for these incompetent boobs). Then there’s the cover-up with
an opportunity for enrichment of some, usually the tight-lipped yes-men then ever
after and forever bonded in what becomes tantamount to an almost fraternal link
by ‘virtue’ of the crime thereby. No, I’m not saying their initial missteps
were necessarily badly intended, but the manipulations thereafter to obfuscate
their incompetence (senile greenspun, no-recession-helicopter-ben, etc.) comes
at a great price and is nothing less than tantamount to or just outright crime.
I’d abolish the fed without hesitation or compunction. After all, at this point
of decline and defacto bankruptcy of the nation you certainly can’t point to
success nor argue their indispensability. Then there’s also the missing
trillions, over-printing of fiat currency, and all that sub rosa activity with
the worthless fraudulent toxic paper which I believe is being supplanted with
ultimately hard currency to the great benefit of the frauds and great detriment
to the nation.]
China
Buys Euros as Fear of World Depression Grows Webster G.
Tarpley | The one certainty
is that there is no recovery, and that the second wave of a world economic
depression dominates the world.
Economy Caught in Depression, Not Recession: Rosenberg Positive
gross domestic product readings and other mildly hopeful signs are masking an
ugly truth: The US economy is in a 1930s-style Depression, Gluskin Sheff
economist David Rosenberg said Tuesday. ‘Positive gross domestic product
readings and other mildly hopeful signs are masking an ugly truth: The US
economy is in a 1930s-style Depression, Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg
said Tuesday. Writing in his daily briefing to investors, Rosenberg said the
Great Depression also had its high points, with a series of positive GDP
reports and sharp stock market gains. But then as now, those signs of recovery
were unsustainable and only provided a false sense of stability, said
Rosenberg. Rosenberg calls current economic conditions
“a depression, and not just some garden-variety recession,” and notes
that any good news both during the initial 1929-33 recession and the one that
began in 2008 triggered “euphoric response.”
Even
Tony Robbins Is Warning That An Economic Collapse Is Coming It seems like almost
everyone is warning of a coming economic collapse these days.
Economy Caught in Depression, Not Recession: Rosenberg Positive
gross domestic product readings and other mildly hopeful signs are masking an
ugly truth: The US economy is in a 1930s-style Depression, Gluskin Sheff
economist David Rosenberg said Tuesday. ‘Positive gross domestic product
readings and other mildly hopeful signs are masking an ugly truth: The US
economy is in a 1930s-style Depression, Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg
said Tuesday. Writing in his daily briefing to investors, Rosenberg said the
Great Depression also had its high points, with a series of positive GDP
reports and sharp stock market gains. But then as now, those signs of recovery
were unsustainable and only provided a false sense of stability, said
Rosenberg. Rosenberg calls current economic conditions
“a depression, and not just some garden-variety recession,” and notes
that any good news both during the initial 1929-33 recession and the one that
began in 2008 triggered “euphoric response.”
Even
Tony Robbins Is Warning That An Economic Collapse Is Coming It seems like
almost everyone is warning of a coming economic collapse these days.
Why to Expect a Bipolar Market Move Next Week [Well, I don’t know about a diagnosis of bipolar,
but ‘criminally insane’; yes, that’s wall street in a nutshell.]
Bond Bubble, Dollar Doom - Embrace The Fear Says Fisher [ Riiiiight!
Sounds like a plan … to bail out the frauds on wall street as they sell their
‘hot potatoes’ in their typical ‘musical chair’ pre-crash charade! ] ‘… Hussman:
Dollar Collapse Coming: In his latest market commentary, top fund
manager John Hussman continues to express a bearish view, and says that more
quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve is likely to
trigger “an abrupt collapse in the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar”.
Hussman offers something of a primer on exchange rates, and concludes by saying
this: “The policy of quantitative easing is likely to force a large adjustment
on the U.S. dollar because the Federal Reserve is choosing to lay a heavier
hand on the Treasury bond market than would result from economic conditions
alone,” he says. “The resulting shift in interest rates and long-term inflation
prospects combine to dramatically reduce the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar.
A significant and relatively abrupt devaluation is then required, in an amount
sufficient to set up expectations of a U.S. dollar appreciation over time.” Special
Offer: People mocked Gary Shilling when he said SELL in 2006 and 2007. But he
was right and his subscribers are richer for it. Click here for Gary Shilling’s
current investment advice. As for the market, Hussman says he
continues to see unfavorable valuations, unfavorable market action, and
unfavorable economic pressures. The Fed’s new go at quantitative easing may
well limit deflationary fears, he says, which has led him to increase exposure
to precious metals and foreign currencies. Hussman also says the U.S. should
focus on restructuring debt, and offers his take on how it should do so …’
U.S. Financial System Still "Fundamentally
Corrupt," Kotlikoff Says: Here's How to Fix It ‘We have a "fundamentally corrupt
financial system" and the Dodd-Frank reform bill did nothing to change it,
says Boston University economics professor Laurence
Kotlikoff. "Relatively little has changed except there are
going to be more federal regulators who are probably going to miss major
problems." At the core of the 2008 crisis was "the production and
sale of trillions of fundamentally fraudulent securities," Kotlikoff says,
suggesting all levels of society participated in the fraud -- including
homeowners. At the center of it all were financial intermediaries (a.k.a. Wall
Street) who packaged and sold "snake oil under the guise of proprietary
information" to limit or eliminate disclosure, and enabled by corrupt
rating agencies, regulators and elected officials, he says. In the accompanying video, Kotlikoff
explains how we can "make Wall Street safe for Main Street." In short, we should transform all financial
companies with limited liability (banks, hedge funds, private equity firms and
insurance companies alike) into mutual funds, which the professor describes as
"little banks that have 100% capital requirements. " Notably, the big
mutual fund companies survived the "financial earthquake" of 2008-09
when the rest of the financial system collapsed, Kotlikoff recalls. In late 2009,
Kotlikoff and Harvard's Niall Ferguson penned an op-ed for The FT describing a blueprint for
how to take moral hazard out of banking. Citing a speech by Bank of England
governor Mervyn King, Kotlikoff and Ferguson called for "limited purpose
banking" (LPB), that would "limit banks to their legitimate purpose -
financial intermediation and payment facilitation." Nine months later,
Kotlikoff remains convinced this "very simple reform" remains a much
better alternative than the financial reform bill hammered out in Washington -
with plenty of influence from Wall Street lobbyists. "We are rebuilding
[the system] out of straw rather than out of brick," Kotlikoff says,
suggesting his "LPB" proposal will ultimately be good for the economy
and provide a model for the rest of the world. "If we have a safe, sound
[financial] structure other countries will follow suit," he says.’
100-Year Bonds --- Sign of Trouble?
Even
Tony Robbins Is Warning That An Economic Collapse Is Coming It seems like
almost everyone is warning of a coming economic collapse these days.
National / World:
Drudgereport:
MORGAN
STANLEY: Government Bond Defaults Inevitable...
Roubini:
Growth to Be 'Well Below' 1% ...
New Home
Sales Sink to Lowest Pace on Record...
POLITICO:
SOME DEMS THINK HOUSE IS GONE...
INTEL
CEO blasts Obama, Dems; USA faces looming tech decline...
LETTERMAN
TURNS: 'He'll have plenty of time for vacations after his one term' … [ This
really is so true … wobama is so total, typical b*** s*** ] ...
Drudgereport:
GALLUP
GENDER GAP: Obama's Approval Among Men Hits All-Time Low of 39%...
LOBOTOMY
JOE BIDEN: 'We're moving in right direction'… Right lobotomy joe, anything you
say! ...
Worries
about recovery deepen...
'Hindenburg
Omen' creator exits stock market...
Economy in
'Depression, Not Recession'...
Dow Faces
'Bouncy Ride to 5,000'...
Typical
Slow Summer -- or Something Darker?
Drop
in Home Sales Renews Pricing Fears...
Investors
Scatter to Safety...
Unemployed
group blasts Geithner's handling of economy...
BOEHNER
URGES OBAMA TO FIRE...
'Government
as community organizer' has failed...
LA
UNVEILS $578 MILLION SCHOOL
More
Expensive Than China's Olympic Stadium!
California
Delays $2.9 Billion School, County Payments Amid Budget Impasse...
'Beat
Whitey Night': Iowa racial attacks at state fair... POLICE
REPORTS...
Jim
Rogers: If You Want Your Family To Be Silly Rich In The Future, Then Leave
America And Move To Asia Now As you may know, Jim Rogers moved to Singapore
in 2007, though he maintains a residence in the U.S. as well.
World Indices / Week ended
August 20, 2010 Yahoo Finance
BEAR MARKET MATH - JULY LOWS IN
DANGER , On Friday August
20, 2010, 4:53 pm EDT ‘
1+1=2
2+2=4
The simplicity
and accuracy of those calculations is undeniable. How about this equation?
Fundamental Weakness + Technical Sell Signals + Overpriced Stocks = Lower Stock
Prices. This calculation also seems to be simple and accurate. Let's look at
some equations that don't make sense.
1+1=3 or Better Earnings = Higher Stock Prices Earnings season is over. Most companies
beat earnings but issued cautious forecasts. This is particularly true of the
tech (NYSEArca: XLK - News)
and financial sectors (NYSEArca: XLF - News).
By large, profits are still driven by cost-cutting, not organic growth. Retail
sales, which make up about one third of the economy, continued to fall after
the second quarter ended. Additionally, the expectation that taxes will go up
might have moved some companies to pull some of next year's income into this
year. This can't be good for Q3 and Q4 profits. As the chart below shows,
positive earnings reports are not bullish for stocks, especially if future
guidance is weak.[chart]
2+2=5 or Weaker than Expected Economy = Rising Stock Prices On July 30, the Bureau of Economic
Analysis (BEA) lowered the previous quarter's Gross Domestic Product (GD)
growth from an estimated 2.7% to 2.4%. But it didn't stop there. The real GDP
for all three previous years was revised as well. It was lowered by 0.2% for
2007, it was lowered by 0.6% for 2008, and it was lowered by 0.4% for 2009. In
percentage terms, the real GDP for 2007 was revised down from 2.5% growth to
2.3%. The 2008 decrease was lowered from 1.9% to 2.8% and 2009 growth was
revised up from a 0.1% to a 0.2% increase. In essence, the BEA proved that the
recession was (or is) much deeper than perceived and the alleged recovery much
weaker than previously reported. This comes as no surprise, as the key sector
of the financial debacle - real estate (NYSEArca: IYR
- News)
- remains in a funk. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that the number of vacant
properties, including foreclosures, residences for sale, and vacation homes,
reached 18.9 million. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continue to lose money. Has
anyone ever wondered how banks (NYSEArca: KBE
- News)
can make money on the same kind of loans that pushed Fannie and Freddie to the
brink of ruin? Since bad real estate loans triggered the post 2007 economic
meltdown, how can the economy recover without real estate leading the way?
3+3=7 or Positive
Analyst Estimates = Higher Stock Prices A recent Associated Press article observed that 'analysts
only seem to hit the mark with their estimates in the strongest economic times
(2003 - 2006).' Why? 'The problem is that analysts get most of their
information from the companies they cover. Corporate managers have every
incentive to stay positive for as long as they can.' Is that true; as true as
1+1=2? On April 26, the day the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) topped at 1,219, the Dow
(DJI: ^DJI) at 11,258, the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) at 2,535, Bloomberg reported
the following: 'U.S. stocks cheapest since 1990 on analyst estimates.' Contrary
to analyst estimates, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter stated that 'the
potential exists that Monday's high marked a significant top.' Since April, the
broad market (NYSEArca: TWM - News)
dropped as much as 17%. In March 2009, with the Dow below 7000 and the S&P
below 700, analysts lowered their earnings forecasts from $113 in April 2008 to
$40. On March 2nd, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter sent out a Trend Change
Alert and recommended to buy long and leveraged long ETFs such as the Ultra
Financial (NYSEArca: UYG - News)
and Ultra S&P 500 ProShares (NYSEArca: SSO
- News).
If you care to know, analysts estimate that earnings for the S&P 500 will
exceed their 2006 all-time high, in 2011. Based on that assumption, stocks are
cheap. How about that for flawed math?
4+4=9 or Technical Sell Signals = Higher Stock Prices The 200-day moving average (MA) is one
of the best-known technical indicators, as it provides delineation between
technically healthy and sick stocks. On May 20, the S&P closed below the
200-day MA for the first time since late 2007. Every attempt to rally and stay
above it has since failed miserably. On July 2, the 50-day MA for the S&P
dropped below its 200-day MA for the first time since late 2007. The same holds
true for mid caps (NYSEArca: MDY - News),
small caps (NYSEArca: IWM - News)
and nearly all individual sector indexes. For good reason, this is called a
Death Cross. Over the past ten years, the death cross has been accurate 75% of
the time, with a 19.72% average return on six winning trades and 6.95% average
return on two losing trades. In addition to the Death Cross, there are two head
and shoulders patterns, one in the making for over 10 years, and the other has
the breadth suggestive of a major meltdown (see September ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter).
5+5=11 or Overvalued Stocks = Higher Prices As explained above, based on overly
optimistic earnings estimates, analysts believe that stocks are cheap. Rather
than basing a future outlook on estimates, it makes sense to use facts as a
foundation for any outlook. Why add an extra variable to what's already an
unpredictable market? Ask Yale Professor Robert Shiller, who's done extensive
research on the subject of valuations, and he'll tell you stocks are
historically overvalued based on the current P/E ratio. Compare today's P/E
ratio with the P/E ratio seen at major market bottoms, and you'll see that
stocks are overvalued by more than 50%. Another gauge that doesn't lie is
dividend yields. A company's dividends are a direct reflection of cash flow and
financial health. The current yield is 2.65% for the Dow and 2.05% for the
S&P. Even value funds like the iShares Russell 1000 Value (NYSEArca: IWD
- News)
yield only a measly 2.08%. Dividends are close to their all-time low set in
1999 (we know what happened then). This means that companies are cash strapped
or overvalued. Looking at a long-term chart of dividend yields plotted against
stock prices shows clearly that markets don't bottom until dividends skyrocket.
Just as ice doesn't thaw unless the temperature moves above 32 degrees, the
economy won't thaw and show signs of life unless P/E ratios drop to, and
dividend yields rise to, levels seen at major market tops. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
includes a detailed analysis of four valuation metrics, along with short-term
target ranges for stocks and the ultimate market bottom. Based on simple math
and common sense, the July lows are certainly in danger. But it doesn't stop
there.’
DOES HISTORY REPEAT, RHYME OR JUST HAVE COINCIDENCES? Lounsbury: ‘… Has anything of economic utility resulted? I have
not found it. And counter to the effect of the dot.com collapse, the credit
bubble collapse may not have stripped out some of the speculative income
excesses. Wall Street bonuses are back to pre-crisis levels and there has been
no "claw-back" of ill-gotten gains from the pirates who seized the
economic ship. In fact, the pirates are still in command of the ship and are
still under full sail. Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum! From my first Treasury report:
… the problem was that our systems,
especially in finance and health care, are too heavily focused on pay for
transactions rather than pay for outcomes. I didn’t have the presence of mind
to bring instant gratification into the discussion, but that would have
certainly made my thought process clearer.
I don't think this created any waves,
but I will continue to wail in the wilderness about how compensation formulas
contribute to and compound the structural problems in our financial system. So,
back to the earnings chart that started this discussion. In view of what has
been discussed here I believe we will find that history, in this instance, will
at least rhyme, if not repeat exactly. Structural economic problems are
sufficiently similar for the two eras that I expect we will see some form of recurrence
of events 5 and 6 [Depression] …’
DISMANTLING BULLISH ARGUMENTS …
Bull Market Argument #1 - Stocks are Cheap Even though the economy is in the
worst shape since the Great Depression, economists at large believe that stocks
(NYSEArca: IVV - News)
are cheap … We've previously analyzed the folly of relying on projected
earnings forecasts and therefore, will only pose two more facts as food for
thought before moving onto the next argument. Even if earnings are
positive the market can decline, as we've seen with the 9% and 17% declines in
January and May. Most of the earnings growth has been fueled by cost-cutting,
not organic growth. What does that tell us about the sustainability of growth?
Bull Market Argument #2 - Cash on the Sidelines Cash on the sideline is viewed as
bullish because, theoretically, it can be used to buy stocks and drive up
prices. Some distinguish between corporate cash and retail cash on the
sidelines. Many forget that for every dollar in cash, there is a debt that has
to be repaid. According to the Federal Reserve, nonfinancial firms' debt totals
$7.2 trillion, the highest level ever. As far as retail investors go, the
current debt-income ratio is at 126%. The pre-bubble average was around 70%. To
get back to the pre-bubble norm, about $6 trillion worth of debt would have to
be eliminated. Retail money in money market funds is currently around the same
level as it was in 2006/2007. Is that bullish?
Debunking the Bond Myth No doubt there's been a migration from investment dollars
out of stocks and into bonds and gold… Bonds - especially corporate high yield
bonds - could soon assume the role real estate had in 2006. Many thought that
real estate (NYSEArca: IYR - News)
will always go up. As it turns out, real estate prices can move in both
directions, as can bond prices.
A Closer Look at Gold What about gold? … The previous cash level low was
recorded in August of 2007. We know what happened then. Rather than focusing on
the sideline cash, perhaps we should focus on the trillions of dollars still in
the market. More selling means lower prices.
'Stocks are Cheap' vs. Realistic Valuations Using projected earnings to determine
the markets real value is like counting chickens that have yet to hatch. Things
change, and as studies have shown, analysts and economist are usually the last
to discern that change. Market forecasting based on solid facts is tricky
enough, but basing forecasts on thin assumptions usually translates into
financial suicide… Stock market tops when P/E ratios are high, dividend yields
are low and mutual fund cash reserves are low. Over the past year, we have seen
P/E ratios at an all-time high, dividend yields close to their 1999 low, and
mutual fund cash levels at an all-time low. In addition, we have also seen
investor optimism soar to levels reminiscent of 2000 and 2007…
Drudgereport:
NEW LOW
FOR O: GALLUP DAILY SHOWS OBAMA 41% APPROVE, 52% DIS...
'Allahu
Akbar!' Iran test fires new missile...
'Al-Qaida
prepares for Israel-Iran war'...
US
Assures Israel Nuclear Iran Isn't Imminent...
Israel
tells UN it will stop new Gaza aid flotilla...
Lebanon
refuses to bow to warning...
CHICAGOLAND:
ShoreBank Closed by FDIC...
...strong
ties to Obama administration
USA
DEBT: $13,310,379,000,000.00
$44,000 PER CITIZEN...
NEW
JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE TO 500,000...
Highest
level in 9 months...
CBO:
DEFICIT 9.1% OF GDP... DEVELOPING...
Homeowners
Expect Home Values to Fall More...
Celente:
Stock Market Crash Before End of 2010 Gerald Celente believes that the stock market will crash before
the end of 2010 , gold will soar.
Fed
Official Admits the Fed Starts Boom/Bust Cycles There are all kinds of
things awry with this article…
Bulls Scatter ... Again ‘At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we wanted to once again
highlight the lack of conviction among investors and advisors in the current
market environment. Following the July rally, bullish sentiment based on the Investors
Intelligence weekly survey jumped to its highest level since May. Then
last week, the S&P 500 dropped more than 3% and the bulls scattered. In
this week's survey, bullish sentiment declined 12% for its largest weekly
decline since the flash crash…’
Know Your Indicators: Hindenburg Omen ‘…Below we outline the five criteria (taken from Zero Hedge) that need to be satisfied in order
for the indicator to be triggered. They are:
Another Round of POMO: Dave's Daily ‘…Thursday we'll get another round of Uncle Sugar's
special blend via more POMO (Permanent Open Market Operations). This private
label brew will go directly to the Primary Dealers (dba: Da Boyz) who will use
it to trade as before…’
More Fuel For a Bigger Decline , On Tuesday
August 17, 2010, 4:18 pm EDT A
French proverb states that a fault denied is committed twice. Denial, as
blissful as it is for the time being, does not serve as protection against the
inevitable.A perfect example of denial is the May 6 flash crash. Neither Wall
Street, the financial media, nor investors wanted to see the danger of such a
meltdown beforehand. After it happened, they were in denial about the cause.
Denial is Bliss
The
simple truth is that the market was ripe for a major correction. A few weeks
before the flash crash, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted the extremely
low CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio and warned: 'It seems that only a minority of
equity positions are equipped with a put safety net. Once prices do fall and
investors do get afraid of incurring losses, the only option is to sell.
Selling, results in more selling. This negative feedback loop usually results
in rapidly falling prices.' As it turns out, there was no clumsy-fingered trader
at fault for the decline that reduced the Dow (DJI: ^DJI) by more than 1,000
points in one day. If it had been a simple error, stocks wouldn't have fallen
to new lows after the flash crash. If it had been a simple error, the S&P
(SNP: ^GSPC) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) wouldn't still be trading below the
flash crash close.
The Reality of Denial
But,
that's the power of denial. Since the April 26 highs, the S&P has been
moving from lower highs to lower lows. On July 1, the S&P had arrived at
1,011. The ensuing rally lifted the markets by nearly 10%, but failed to push
the S&P and Nasdaq above the July 21 highs. The July 21 highs failed to
move above the May 12 highs. The May 12 highs were significantly short of the
April 26 highs. Despite the obvious downtrend, investors get as excited about
dead end bounces as ever. This is not a bullish omen. In fact, according to the
ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter's technical analysis, the steepest leg of the
decline is still ahead. Before we look at more technical details, let's browse
through some fundamental factors that reflect the current state of denial:
Don't Worry About Bank
Failures
111
banks were added to the FDIC's failed bank list thus far in 2010. At the same
time last year, only 76 banks had been shut down. According to an FDIC press
release, Metro Bank of Dade County had total assets of $442.3 million and total
deposits of $391.3 million. Assets outweigh liabilities by $51 million. That's
good, but apparently not accurate. According to the FDIC's press release, closing
Metro Bank will cost the FDIC $67.6 million. Why? Because an accounting trick
allows banks to artificially inflate their assets. The accounting trick allowed
this small bank to overstate its assets by about 25%. Other banks on the FDIC
list overstated their assets by more than 50%. Imagine the size of the problem,
considering that the four biggest banks (NYSEArca: KBE
- News)
of the country have about $7.5 trillion in combined assets. We should also
point out that none of those losses technically affect earnings, at least not
yet (for a detailed analysis refer to the June issue of the ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter).
Don't Worry About Falling
Real Estate
The
National Association of Home Builders reported that its monthly reading of
builder's sentiment about the housing market sank to 14, the lowest level since
March 2009. Unlike other economic indicators, this index is taken from builders
that have their finger on the pulse of Main Street and is forward looking.
Despite the rally in equities (NYSEArca: VTI
- News)
and real estate (NYSEArca: IYR - News),
homebuilders (NYSEArca: XHB - News)
never really saw light at the end of the tunnel.
Don't Worry About
Foreclosures
According
to RealtyTrac, more than 1 million American households are likely to lose their
homes to foreclosure this year. This is about 10 times as high as during an
average year. 25% of the U.S. household sector has a sub-600 FICO score. Yet,
Fannie Mae is offering financing to first-time buyers who only have a $1,000
down-payment. Nearly $150 billion have been spent to keep the doors of Fannie,
Freddie and company open. Does it make sense to artificially extend the
life of a patient destined to die? In the case of Fannie, politicians seem to
think that lending more money and ultimately creating more toxic assets will
solve the problems. Even a third grader understands the irony of that concept.
Denial is alive and well.
Don't Worry About Bankrupt
States
States
are in trouble. The bigger the state, the bigger the trouble it seems.
California has a $1.8 trillion economy. If CA was a country, its economy would
be the seventh biggest in the world, bigger than Russia. But, CA has no money.
CNN reports that as many as 200,000 state workers in CA could see their pay
scale slashed to minimum wage, if orders from the governor's office are
followed. You don't need to be one of the 200,000 to know that is bad. To go
from state salary to minimum wage is a huge drop.
Don't Worry About Falling
Prices
Look
around and you see a general downtrend develop: U.S. stocks (NYSEArca: IWB
- News),
international stocks (NYSEArca: EFA - News)
and emerging market stocks (NYSEArca: EEM
- News).
The same applies to commodities (NYSEArca: DBC
- News),
real estate prices (NYSEArca: RWR - News)
and consumer goods. The above-mentioned 'don't worries' all contribute to the
deflationary spiral (see image below for a visual). Unemployment remains high
because businesses have no pricing power. This leads to lower income, default
foreclosures, and ultimately even higher unemployment. Even Bernanke knows,
there is no easy fix to a deflationary cycle. Once engrained, it feeds on
itself. [chart]
Don't Worry About Death
Crosses
A death cross is one of the most powerful technical indicators. It occurs when the shorter simple moving average (SMA) crosses below the longer SMA. Over the last few weeks we saw literally dozens of such death crosses. Most notable was the S&P, Dow Jones and Nasdaq experiencing not only a death cross created by the 50 and 200-day SMA, but also courtesy of the 10 and 40-week SMA. Despite the rally from the July lows, the sell signal triggered by the various death crosses remained active. The fact that the Dow Jones was the only major index to rally above the June 21 highs provides an additional bearish non-confirmation. Over the past ten years, the buy/sell action triggered by the SMA crosses has a success rate of 75% - 100%. Winning trades outperformed losing trades by a ratio of at least 3:1. In investing, those are not the kind of odds you want to bet against. In other words, it's time to face reality and abandon denial. Leading up to the April highs, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted a pinnacle of denial which was reflected by investors' outright enthusiasm about stocks. At a time when approximately 8 of 10 investment advisors and newsletter writers were bullish on stocks, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted: 'The message conveyed by the composite bullishness is unmistakably bearish. The pieces are in place for a major decline.' Since April 26, the major indexes dropped as much as 17%. Despite the recent rally, this seems to have been only the first installment of a significant decline. This decline is now in progress. In fact, the August issue of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter explains the one chart-pattern that explains why the next leg down will be strong and powerful. A British Historian noted decades ago that a wise person does at once what a fool does at last. Both do the same thing; only at different times. Will you get out of the markets way in time, or too late?
Here’s a new piece of the dismally murky puzzle which belies
a previous raison d’etre for rally: Greek
Bonds Slump As Austerity Backfires, Country Enters “Death Spiral”, And The
Violent End Game Approaches . Previously, Walmart same store sales were actually down (overseas
results were up), and, think about it. Isn’t Walmart, as essentially an
american based sales agent of china products a ‘contrarian indicator’ for the
the u.s.; that is , hasn’t Walmart’s rise coincided with american main street’s
demise. Similarly, fraudulent wall street high frequency churn and earn
programmed trade scams among many other
frauds as yet unprosecuted has heralded the death knell for american
business and the economy, generally. Old news at best and, that ‘not bad as expected, better than expected dog
don’t hunt no more’! ‘YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]:
… Retailers were also strong. As a group retailers climbed 1.8%. Discount
retail giant and Dow component Wal-Mart (WMT 51.02, +0.61) was
a solid performer on the back of in-line earnings and an improved
forecast. Home improvement retailer and
fellow Dow component Home Depot (HD 28.31, +0.93) had a more positive influence over
retailers. It posted better-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter, but
issued a rather mixed forecast. A smaller-than-expected increase in housing
starts during July didn't do anything to derail the stock this session. Housing
starts for July increased 1.7% month-over-month to an annualized rate of
546,000 units, which is less than the rate of 555,000 units that had been
widely anticipated. Building permits for July fell 3.1% month-over-month to an
annualized rate of 565,000, which is below the rate of 573,000 that had been
expected…’ But, just a push of the computer programmed trade button and off we go,
reality / valuation / economics be damned. In real security analysis (very
simplified / summarized), as opposed to the continued frauds on wall street,
one must begin with the largest and most significant aggregate (a simple word
picture / analogy: ‘rising tide lifts all boats’). If you get this right, the
probabilities in your favor are substantially enhanced. From there, you want
leading industries, and leading companies within said leading industries
(again, larger aggregates then picks, to enhance probabilities, not guarantees,
in your favor). Your time frame, 1-3-5 yrs tops for projections, (including
income statement/EPS, balance sheet, and applying an appropriate P/E – a
detailed, multi-faceted approach beyond what could be described in this
summary); and, that’s all they are, projections. Beyond that time frame, your
guess. On fraudulent wall street, every day, though already discounted in large
part (6-8 mos, approx.), the market spins, churns, and with lightning fast
computerized high-frequency trade programs commissions in huge volumes like no
other time in financial history when real valuation meant something, with no
net economic value added, but very lucrative to the frauds on wall street,
which ultimately is a net detriment to the economy / the nation /and other
industries as we’ve seen and as described elsewhere on this site and in these
posts http://albertpeia.com
. Preposterously, they even sometimes refer to seasonal factors as if hearing
them for the first time and ‘explaining’ an up move (almost invariably already
discounted). Today, they shrugged off the deepening economic reality despite the
election year frothing / manipulations. This
is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression.
The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market.
This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes
with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and
sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato
scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise,
will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are
criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. ].
Are You Ready
For How Bad It Will Get? Graham
Summers | ‘There
are numerous components in the latest GDP number that are extremely suspect. The vast majority of investors are going to
be taken to the cleaners.
I realize this view is far from the consensus. Even those who are in the bear
camp aver that the Stimulus did in fact bring us out of recession at least
temporarily.
However,
I would strongly contend that the recovery was in fact non-existent for the
following reasons:
1. The Government data used to validate
the recovery (GPD, unemployment, etc) is clearly massaged if not bordering on
outright propaganda
2. We are in fact in a depression and
the “recovery” was simply a bounce in economic activity taking place within the
context of a larger economy contraction
Regarding #1, every Government data
point used in promoting the “recovery” had some degree of fudging in it. Let’s
consider GDP for instance.
There are numerous devious tactics used
to overstate GDP growth, however, the most obvious gimmick the BLS uses is
overstating GPD growth in the present and then revising it lower in the
subsequent quarters.’
Kaufman on High Frequency Trading ‘Sen. Ted Kaufman (D., Del.) has been banging the drum on the need for
regulatory changes to high frequency trading for a while. His latest
thoughts on the matter take the form of a letter to SEC Chairwoman Mary Schapiro
urging — among other things — major high-frequency trading firms be
required to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Dow Jones Newswires’ Jacob Bunge reports:…’
Deceptive
Economic Statistics: While the economists lied the US economy died Paul Craig Roberts | The bought-and-paid-for-economists got all the
media forums for a decade. While they lied, the US economy died.
Manufacturing,
housing sectors exhibit diverging fortunes (Washington Post) I’d say understatement but I truly don’t
know what this headline means juxtaposed with ‘fortunes’.
Google
Yanks “Kill The Web” Article That Warned Of Internet Takeover Having at
first appeared as normal, our earlier article about Google’s plan to kill the
web has been completely de-listed from Google News. This is completely
unprecedented and underscores how keen Google is to prevent people from finding
out that it is a CIA-NSA front that is preparing to completely end the Internet
as we know it with the Verizon net-neutrality killing deal.
U.S. Financial System Still "Fundamentally
Corrupt," Kotlikoff Says: Here's How to Fix It ‘We have a "fundamentally corrupt
financial system" and the Dodd-Frank reform bill did nothing to change it,
says Boston University economics professor Laurence
Kotlikoff. "Relatively little has changed except there are
going to be more federal regulators who are probably going to miss major
problems." At the core of the 2008 crisis was "the production and
sale of trillions of fundamentally fraudulent securities," Kotlikoff says,
suggesting all levels of society participated in the fraud -- including
homeowners. At the center of it all were financial intermediaries (a.k.a. Wall
Street) who packaged and sold "snake oil under the guise of proprietary
information" to limit or eliminate disclosure, and enabled by corrupt
rating agencies, regulators and elected officials, he says. In the accompanying video, Kotlikoff
explains how we can "make Wall Street safe for Main Street." In short, we should transform all financial
companies with limited liability (banks, hedge funds, private equity firms and
insurance companies alike) into mutual funds, which the professor describes as
"little banks that have 100% capital requirements. " Notably, the big
mutual fund companies survived the "financial earthquake" of 2008-09
when the rest of the financial system collapsed, Kotlikoff recalls. In late
2009, Kotlikoff and Harvard's Niall Ferguson penned an op-ed for The FT describing a blueprint for
how to take moral hazard out of banking. Citing a speech by Bank of England
governor Mervyn King, Kotlikoff and Ferguson called for "limited purpose
banking" (LPB), that would "limit banks to their legitimate purpose -
financial intermediation and payment facilitation." Nine months later,
Kotlikoff remains convinced this "very simple reform" remains a much
better alternative than the financial reform bill hammered out in Washington -
with plenty of influence from Wall Street lobbyists. "We are rebuilding
[the system] out of straw rather than out of brick," Kotlikoff says,
suggesting his "LPB" proposal will ultimately be good for the economy
and provide a model for the rest of the world. "If we have a safe, sound
[financial] structure other countries will follow suit," he says.’
Stocks
Crushed AGAIN: Here's What You Need To Know From The Business
Insider All-around ugly. The
close was especially bad. But first, the scoreboard:
And now, the top stories:
* The day really started last night when the
WSJ dropped its big story about the Fed being divided on the proper course
of action. The report sent jitters throughout the markets, both because the
future is uncertain, but also because it revealed that several of the Fed governors
aren't actually seeing the economic deterioration being seen by market
participants.
* The Nikkei started off and ended weak, as more
murmurs about BoJ-yen intervention gathered steam. Japanese FinMind Noda did
hold a yen-related press conference, but it mainly signaled that no action was
imminent, and the yen surged (later in the day that was tempered a little bit
by wire reports about a possible intervention).
* Europe continued the ugly trend as sovereign debt
worries continue to race into the fore. Greek shares plunged on talk of a
desperate merger among the country's banks. Even Germany's deficit is soaring.
* Stocks were already sagging in the early going when
existing
home sales data came out and was staggeringly bad. At a drop of 27.2%, the
number was far worse than the most dour expectations.
* That's when things got pretty bad. Stocks fell
further, the yen went ballistic, and the yield on the 10-year bond fell below
2.5%, a truly eye-popping number. Everyone is now presuming that another round
of quantitative easing (QE) is a done deal.
* There were a few moments in the day when the bulls
might try to make a run, but... nope. It never happened. Other notable market
measures: Gold is quietly creeping back to old highs, while oil is threatening
to fall below $70.
Traders Freaking Out Over WSJ Report On The Fed: Here's
Why From The Business
Insider ‘Last night, WSJ's John Hilsenrath reported that at the
last FOMC meeting, several of the Fed governors expressed reservations about
the plan to maintain the size of the balance sheet, and roll over MBS into
Treasuries. There are a lot of moving parts to the story because there are
different reasons for the objections. Some of the Fed governors are hawkish
(like Hoenig). Some are more dovish (like Bullard). And some think that the Fed
can't really do anything because our problems are more structural
(Kocherlakota). But here's what folks are taking away from the article: The Fed
is still way behind the curve in terms of how bad the economy is. It's
paralyzed. It's funny, because this is the exact opposite of what some people
initially thought -- there was this fear that the Fed knew something about bad
news coming down the pike that the public hadn't heard yet. In fact, as we now
know, the Fed isn't seeing what everyone else is. Anyway, this is the talk of
the morning, and it's helping send stocks down again.’
Housing Sinks Stocks, Dow at 6-Week
Low Midnight Trader4:20 PM, Aug 24, 2010 --
GLOBAL
SENTIMENT
UPSIDE
MOVERS
(+) AVII reports positive study
results.
(+) MGIC signs four new partners.
(+) DTPI to be sold to
PriceWaterhouseCoopers for $12.50 per share.
(+) FMCN continues evening gain that
followed earnings.
(+) DUK downgraded.
DOWNSIDE
MOVERS
(-) CRH warns for earnings.
(-) PFE says cancer study fails to meet
primary endpoint.
(-) BIG EPS beat by a penny, raises FY
EPS view though still straddles Street estimate.
(-) MDT meets with earnings, guides in
line to below Street view.
(-) BKS reports wider-than-expected
loss.
MARKET
DIRECTION
Stocks end broadly in the red after
disappointing housing data. The major averages had erased the bulk of their
steep losses in afternoon action but a fresh leg down late in the session
pushed the indexes back into the lower half of the day's range. The DJIA had
dropped below 10,000 in the immediate wake of a reported drop in home resales
but ends just above that line, off 1.3%. The S&P 500 drops 1.5%, while the
tech-heavy Nasdaq sheds 1.7%. Stocks began the day under water as Asia and
European averages both dropped in reflection of global investor jitters over
the state of the recovery.
Crude futures end 2% lower, with the
October contract at $71.63, an eleven-week low. Gasoline for September delivery
settled at $1.85 a gallon, the lowest price since December 2009.
Equities and commodities fell after the
National Association of Realtors said sales of previously occupied homes
plunged 27% in July to an annual rate of 3.83 million, the lowest rate in 15
years. That's much worse than the 4.7 million estimate from economists polled
by Thomson Reuters. The 27% drop from the previous month was the biggest since
record-keeping began in 1968.
In company news:
Citigroup's (C) efforts to streamline its consumer unit in
North America has caused the overdue loans to jump more than originally
expected after the bank moved about 750,000 customer accounts to new locations,
Bloomberg reported, citing a person briefed on the matter. That could increase
the cost to make CitiFinancial--the name of the consumer finance unit--ready
for sale, the report said.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) fell amid a Food and Drug Administration
warning that its DePuy Orthopaedics unit is illegally marketing two products.
The FDA warned Johnson & Johnson's unit that one product has never been
approved for sale and another product is being sold for uses that have not been
specifically approved.
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) fell after its cancer drug Sutent failed
to improve the survival rates in patients who had previously been treated for
lung cancer. When combined with the drug Tarceva, however, Sutent met its
secondary goal of improving progression-free survival in patients.
Dell (DELL) is preparing a souped up offer for 3Par
inc. (PAR) as it competes with Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), which bid $1.6 billion earlier this
week, according to a Bloomberg report, citing a person familiar with the deal.
The offer could be sent in the coming days, the report said, citing the source.
Earlier, Dell had agreed to pay $1.5 billion for the company.
Tyson Foods (TSN) fell on news its subsidiary is recalling
380,000 pounds of deli meat that could be contaminated with Listeria
monocytogenes. The meats were produced by Zemco Industries and were sold to
Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) and
used for Marketside Grab and Go Sandwiches. The meats were produced between
June 18 and July 2.
In earnings news, Medtronic (MDT) shares are sharply lower after the
medical device company lowered its profit forecast, citing slowing sales for it
defibrillators and spinal products, reported Bloomberg. Medtronic reported Q1
non-GAAP EPS of $0.80, in line with the Thomson Reuters mean analyst estimate.
Revenue of $3.773 billion is down 4% compared to the $3.933 billion reported a
year ago. The Street expected $3.945 billion.
Barnes & Noble (BKS) fell after its first quarter loss was
bigger than expected, and the book store group cut its outlook for the year.
The company posted a loss of $62.5 million, or $1.02 a share excluding legal
costs, compared to a profit of $12.3 million, or 21 cents a share, a year ago.
Sales rose 21% to $1.4 billion.
Also, Big Lots (BIG) moved down 2.8% in choppy trade after
missing the Street on fiscal Q2 revenue; it's getting little lift from a raised
EPS forecast on the year, as economic concerns weigh on equities in today's
trading. The company reported $1.148 billion in Q2 revenue, compared with
Street's consensus view for $1.15 billion. The company reported earnings $63
million, or 48 cents per share, a penny better than the Street.
100-Year Bonds --- Sign of Trouble?
Even
Tony Robbins Is Warning That An Economic Collapse Is Coming It seems like
almost everyone is warning of a coming economic collapse these days.
Drudgereport:
GALLUP
GENDER GAP: Obama's Approval Among Men Hits All-Time Low of 39%...
LOBOTOMY
JOE BIDEN: 'We're moving in right direction'… Right lobotomy joe, anything you
say! ...
Worries
about recovery deepen...
'Hindenburg
Omen' creator exits stock market...
Economy in
'Depression, Not Recession'...
Dow Faces
'Bouncy Ride to 5,000'...
Typical
Slow Summer -- or Something Darker?
Drop
in Home Sales Renews Pricing Fears...
Investors
Scatter to Safety...
Unemployed
group blasts Geithner's handling of economy...
BOEHNER
URGES OBAMA TO FIRE...
'Government
as community organizer' has failed...
LA
UNVEILS $578 MILLION SCHOOL
More
Expensive Than China's Olympic Stadium!
California
Delays $2.9 Billion School, County Payments Amid Budget Impasse...
'Beat
Whitey Night': Iowa racial attacks at state fair... POLICE
REPORTS...
Jim
Rogers: If You Want Your Family To Be Silly Rich In The Future, Then Leave
America And Move To Asia Now As you may know, Jim Rogers moved to Singapore
in 2007, though he maintains a residence in the U.S. as well.
World Indices / Week ended
August 20, 2010 Yahoo Finance
BEAR MARKET MATH - JULY LOWS IN
DANGER , On Friday August
20, 2010, 4:53 pm EDT ‘
1+1=2
2+2=4
The simplicity
and accuracy of those calculations is undeniable. How about this equation?
Fundamental Weakness + Technical Sell Signals + Overpriced Stocks = Lower Stock
Prices. This calculation also seems to be simple and accurate. Let's look at
some equations that don't make sense.
1+1=3 or Better Earnings = Higher Stock Prices Earnings season is over. Most companies
beat earnings but issued cautious forecasts. This is particularly true of the
tech (NYSEArca: XLK - News)
and financial sectors (NYSEArca: XLF - News).
By large, profits are still driven by cost-cutting, not organic growth. Retail
sales, which make up about one third of the economy, continued to fall after
the second quarter ended. Additionally, the expectation that taxes will go up
might have moved some companies to pull some of next year's income into this
year. This can't be good for Q3 and Q4 profits. As the chart below shows,
positive earnings reports are not bullish for stocks, especially if future
guidance is weak.[chart]
2+2=5 or Weaker than Expected Economy = Rising Stock Prices On July 30, the Bureau of Economic
Analysis (BEA) lowered the previous quarter's Gross Domestic Product (GD)
growth from an estimated 2.7% to 2.4%. But it didn't stop there. The real GDP
for all three previous years was revised as well. It was lowered by 0.2% for
2007, it was lowered by 0.6% for 2008, and it was lowered by 0.4% for 2009. In
percentage terms, the real GDP for 2007 was revised down from 2.5% growth to
2.3%. The 2008 decrease was lowered from 1.9% to 2.8% and 2009 growth was
revised up from a 0.1% to a 0.2% increase. In essence, the BEA proved that the
recession was (or is) much deeper than perceived and the alleged recovery much
weaker than previously reported. This comes as no surprise, as the key sector
of the financial debacle - real estate (NYSEArca: IYR
- News)
- remains in a funk. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that the number of vacant
properties, including foreclosures, residences for sale, and vacation homes,
reached 18.9 million. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continue to lose money. Has
anyone ever wondered how banks (NYSEArca: KBE
- News)
can make money on the same kind of loans that pushed Fannie and Freddie to the
brink of ruin? Since bad real estate loans triggered the post 2007 economic
meltdown, how can the economy recover without real estate leading the way?
3+3=7 or Positive
Analyst Estimates = Higher Stock Prices A recent Associated Press article observed that 'analysts
only seem to hit the mark with their estimates in the strongest economic times
(2003 - 2006).' Why? 'The problem is that analysts get most of their information
from the companies they cover. Corporate managers have every incentive to stay
positive for as long as they can.' Is that true; as true as 1+1=2? On April 26,
the day the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) topped at 1,219, the Dow (DJI: ^DJI) at
11,258, the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) at 2,535, Bloomberg reported the following:
'U.S. stocks cheapest since 1990 on analyst estimates.' Contrary to analyst
estimates, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter stated that 'the potential exists
that Monday's high marked a significant top.' Since April, the broad market
(NYSEArca: TWM - News)
dropped as much as 17%. In March 2009, with the Dow below 7000 and the S&P
below 700, analysts lowered their earnings forecasts from $113 in April 2008 to
$40. On March 2nd, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter sent out a Trend Change
Alert and recommended to buy long and leveraged long ETFs such as the Ultra
Financial (NYSEArca: UYG - News)
and Ultra S&P 500 ProShares (NYSEArca: SSO
- News).
If you care to know, analysts estimate that earnings for the S&P 500 will
exceed their 2006 all-time high, in 2011. Based on that assumption, stocks are
cheap. How about that for flawed math?
4+4=9 or Technical Sell Signals = Higher Stock Prices The 200-day moving average (MA) is one
of the best-known technical indicators, as it provides delineation between
technically healthy and sick stocks. On May 20, the S&P closed below the
200-day MA for the first time since late 2007. Every attempt to rally and stay
above it has since failed miserably. On July 2, the 50-day MA for the S&P
dropped below its 200-day MA for the first time since late 2007. The same holds
true for mid caps (NYSEArca: MDY - News),
small caps (NYSEArca: IWM - News)
and nearly all individual sector indexes. For good reason, this is called a
Death Cross. Over the past ten years, the death cross has been accurate 75% of
the time, with a 19.72% average return on six winning trades and 6.95% average
return on two losing trades. In addition to the Death Cross, there are two head
and shoulders patterns, one in the making for over 10 years, and the other has
the breadth suggestive of a major meltdown (see September ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter).
5+5=11 or Overvalued Stocks = Higher Prices As explained above, based on overly
optimistic earnings estimates, analysts believe that stocks are cheap. Rather
than basing a future outlook on estimates, it makes sense to use facts as a
foundation for any outlook. Why add an extra variable to what's already an
unpredictable market? Ask Yale Professor Robert Shiller, who's done extensive
research on the subject of valuations, and he'll tell you stocks are
historically overvalued based on the current P/E ratio. Compare today's P/E
ratio with the P/E ratio seen at major market bottoms, and you'll see that
stocks are overvalued by more than 50%. Another gauge that doesn't lie is
dividend yields. A company's dividends are a direct reflection of cash flow and
financial health. The current yield is 2.65% for the Dow and 2.05% for the
S&P. Even value funds like the iShares Russell 1000 Value (NYSEArca: IWD
- News)
yield only a measly 2.08%. Dividends are close to their all-time low set in
1999 (we know what happened then). This means that companies are cash strapped
or overvalued. Looking at a long-term chart of dividend yields plotted against
stock prices shows clearly that markets don't bottom until dividends skyrocket.
Just as ice doesn't thaw unless the temperature moves above 32 degrees, the
economy won't thaw and show signs of life unless P/E ratios drop to, and
dividend yields rise to, levels seen at major market tops. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
includes a detailed analysis of four valuation metrics, along with short-term
target ranges for stocks and the ultimate market bottom. Based on simple math
and common sense, the July lows are certainly in danger. But it doesn't stop
there.’
DOES HISTORY REPEAT, RHYME OR JUST HAVE COINCIDENCES? Lounsbury: ‘… Has anything of economic utility resulted? I have
not found it. And counter to the effect of the dot.com collapse, the credit
bubble collapse may not have stripped out some of the speculative income
excesses. Wall Street bonuses are back to pre-crisis levels and there has been
no "claw-back" of ill-gotten gains from the pirates who seized the
economic ship. In fact, the pirates are still in command of the ship and are
still under full sail. Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum! From my first Treasury report:
… the problem was that our systems,
especially in finance and health care, are too heavily focused on pay for
transactions rather than pay for outcomes. I didn’t have the presence of mind
to bring instant gratification into the discussion, but that would have
certainly made my thought process clearer.
I don't think this created any waves,
but I will continue to wail in the wilderness about how compensation formulas
contribute to and compound the structural problems in our financial system. So,
back to the earnings chart that started this discussion. In view of what has
been discussed here I believe we will find that history, in this instance, will
at least rhyme, if not repeat exactly. Structural economic problems are
sufficiently similar for the two eras that I expect we will see some form of
recurrence of events 5 and 6 [Depression] …’
DISMANTLING BULLISH ARGUMENTS …
Bull Market Argument #1 - Stocks are Cheap Even though the economy is in the
worst shape since the Great Depression, economists at large believe that stocks
(NYSEArca: IVV - News)
are cheap … We've previously analyzed the folly of relying on projected
earnings forecasts and therefore, will only pose two more facts as food for
thought before moving onto the next argument. Even if earnings are
positive the market can decline, as we've seen with the 9% and 17% declines in
January and May. Most of the earnings growth has been fueled by cost-cutting,
not organic growth. What does that tell us about the sustainability of growth?
Bull Market Argument #2 - Cash on the Sidelines Cash on the sideline is viewed as
bullish because, theoretically, it can be used to buy stocks and drive up
prices. Some distinguish between corporate cash and retail cash on the
sidelines. Many forget that for every dollar in cash, there is a debt that has
to be repaid. According to the Federal Reserve, nonfinancial firms' debt totals
$7.2 trillion, the highest level ever. As far as retail investors go, the
current debt-income ratio is at 126%. The pre-bubble average was around 70%. To
get back to the pre-bubble norm, about $6 trillion worth of debt would have to
be eliminated. Retail money in money market funds is currently around the same
level as it was in 2006/2007. Is that bullish?
Debunking the Bond Myth No doubt there's been a migration from investment dollars
out of stocks and into bonds and gold… Bonds - especially corporate high yield
bonds - could soon assume the role real estate had in 2006. Many thought that
real estate (NYSEArca: IYR - News)
will always go up. As it turns out, real estate prices can move in both
directions, as can bond prices.
A Closer Look at Gold What about gold? … The previous cash level low was
recorded in August of 2007. We know what happened then. Rather than focusing on
the sideline cash, perhaps we should focus on the trillions of dollars still in
the market. More selling means lower prices.
'Stocks are Cheap' vs. Realistic Valuations Using projected earnings to determine
the markets real value is like counting chickens that have yet to hatch. Things
change, and as studies have shown, analysts and economist are usually the last
to discern that change. Market forecasting based on solid facts is tricky
enough, but basing forecasts on thin assumptions usually translates into
financial suicide… Stock market tops when P/E ratios are high, dividend yields
are low and mutual fund cash reserves are low. Over the past year, we have seen
P/E ratios at an all-time high, dividend yields close to their 1999 low, and
mutual fund cash levels at an all-time low. In addition, we have also seen
investor optimism soar to levels reminiscent of 2000 and 2007…
Drudgereport:
NEW LOW
FOR O: GALLUP DAILY SHOWS OBAMA 41% APPROVE, 52% DIS...
'Allahu
Akbar!' Iran test fires new missile...
'Al-Qaida
prepares for Israel-Iran war'...
US
Assures Israel Nuclear Iran Isn't Imminent...
Israel
tells UN it will stop new Gaza aid flotilla...
Lebanon
refuses to bow to warning...
CHICAGOLAND:
ShoreBank Closed by FDIC...
...strong
ties to Obama administration
USA
DEBT: $13,310,379,000,000.00
$44,000 PER CITIZEN...
NEW
JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE TO 500,000...
Highest
level in 9 months...
CBO:
DEFICIT 9.1% OF GDP... DEVELOPING...
Homeowners
Expect Home Values to Fall More...
Celente:
Stock Market Crash Before End of 2010 Gerald Celente believes that the stock market will crash before
the end of 2010 , gold will soar.
Fed
Official Admits the Fed Starts Boom/Bust Cycles There are all kinds of
things awry with this article…
Bulls Scatter ... Again ‘At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we wanted to once again
highlight the lack of conviction among investors and advisors in the current
market environment. Following the July rally, bullish sentiment based on the Investors
Intelligence weekly survey jumped to its highest level since May. Then
last week, the S&P 500 dropped more than 3% and the bulls scattered. In
this week's survey, bullish sentiment declined 12% for its largest weekly
decline since the flash crash…’
Know Your Indicators: Hindenburg Omen ‘…Below we outline the five criteria (taken from Zero Hedge) that need to be satisfied in order
for the indicator to be triggered. They are:
Another Round of POMO: Dave's Daily ‘…Thursday we'll get another round of Uncle Sugar's
special blend via more POMO (Permanent Open Market Operations). This private
label brew will go directly to the Primary Dealers (dba: Da Boyz) who will use
it to trade as before…’
More Fuel For a Bigger Decline , On Tuesday
August 17, 2010, 4:18 pm EDT A
French proverb states that a fault denied is committed twice. Denial, as
blissful as it is for the time being, does not serve as protection against the
inevitable.A perfect example of denial is the May 6 flash crash. Neither Wall
Street, the financial media, nor investors wanted to see the danger of such a
meltdown beforehand. After it happened, they were in denial about the cause.
Denial is Bliss
The
simple truth is that the market was ripe for a major correction. A few weeks
before the flash crash, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted the extremely
low CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio and warned: 'It seems that only a minority of
equity positions are equipped with a put safety net. Once prices do fall and
investors do get afraid of incurring losses, the only option is to sell.
Selling, results in more selling. This negative feedback loop usually results
in rapidly falling prices.' As it turns out, there was no clumsy-fingered trader
at fault for the decline that reduced the Dow (DJI: ^DJI) by more than 1,000
points in one day. If it had been a simple error, stocks wouldn't have fallen
to new lows after the flash crash. If it had been a simple error, the S&P
(SNP: ^GSPC) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) wouldn't still be trading below the
flash crash close.
The Reality of Denial
But,
that's the power of denial. Since the April 26 highs, the S&P has been
moving from lower highs to lower lows. On July 1, the S&P had arrived at
1,011. The ensuing rally lifted the markets by nearly 10%, but failed to push
the S&P and Nasdaq above the July 21 highs. The July 21 highs failed to
move above the May 12 highs. The May 12 highs were significantly short of the
April 26 highs. Despite the obvious downtrend, investors get as excited about
dead end bounces as ever. This is not a bullish omen. In fact, according to the
ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter's technical analysis, the steepest leg of the
decline is still ahead. Before we look at more technical details, let's browse
through some fundamental factors that reflect the current state of denial:
Don't Worry About Bank
Failures
111
banks were added to the FDIC's failed bank list thus far in 2010. At the same
time last year, only 76 banks had been shut down. According to an FDIC press
release, Metro Bank of Dade County had total assets of $442.3 million and total
deposits of $391.3 million. Assets outweigh liabilities by $51 million. That's
good, but apparently not accurate. According to the FDIC's press release, closing
Metro Bank will cost the FDIC $67.6 million. Why? Because an accounting trick
allows banks to artificially inflate their assets. The accounting trick allowed
this small bank to overstate its assets by about 25%. Other banks on the FDIC
list overstated their assets by more than 50%. Imagine the size of the problem,
considering that the four biggest banks (NYSEArca: KBE
- News)
of the country have about $7.5 trillion in combined assets. We should also
point out that none of those losses technically affect earnings, at least not
yet (for a detailed analysis refer to the June issue of the ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter).
Don't Worry About Falling
Real Estate
The
National Association of Home Builders reported that its monthly reading of
builder's sentiment about the housing market sank to 14, the lowest level since
March 2009. Unlike other economic indicators, this index is taken from builders
that have their finger on the pulse of Main Street and is forward looking.
Despite the rally in equities (NYSEArca: VTI
- News)
and real estate (NYSEArca: IYR - News),
homebuilders (NYSEArca: XHB - News)
never really saw light at the end of the tunnel.
Don't Worry About
Foreclosures
According
to RealtyTrac, more than 1 million American households are likely to lose their
homes to foreclosure this year. This is about 10 times as high as during an
average year. 25% of the U.S. household sector has a sub-600 FICO score. Yet,
Fannie Mae is offering financing to first-time buyers who only have a $1,000
down-payment. Nearly $150 billion have been spent to keep the doors of Fannie,
Freddie and company open. Does it make sense to artificially extend the
life of a patient destined to die? In the case of Fannie, politicians seem to
think that lending more money and ultimately creating more toxic assets will
solve the problems. Even a third grader understands the irony of that concept.
Denial is alive and well.
Don't Worry About Bankrupt
States
States
are in trouble. The bigger the state, the bigger the trouble it seems.
California has a $1.8 trillion economy. If CA was a country, its economy would
be the seventh biggest in the world, bigger than Russia. But, CA has no money.
CNN reports that as many as 200,000 state workers in CA could see their pay
scale slashed to minimum wage, if orders from the governor's office are
followed. You don't need to be one of the 200,000 to know that is bad. To go
from state salary to minimum wage is a huge drop.
Don't Worry About Falling
Prices
Look
around and you see a general downtrend develop: U.S. stocks (NYSEArca: IWB
- News),
international stocks (NYSEArca: EFA - News)
and emerging market stocks (NYSEArca: EEM
- News).
The same applies to commodities (NYSEArca: DBC
- News),
real estate prices (NYSEArca: RWR - News)
and consumer goods. The above-mentioned 'don't worries' all contribute to the
deflationary spiral (see image below for a visual). Unemployment remains high
because businesses have no pricing power. This leads to lower income, default
foreclosures, and ultimately even higher unemployment. Even Bernanke knows,
there is no easy fix to a deflationary cycle. Once engrained, it feeds on
itself. [chart]
Don't Worry About Death
Crosses
A death cross is one of the most powerful technical indicators. It occurs when the shorter simple moving average (SMA) crosses below the longer SMA. Over the last few weeks we saw literally dozens of such death crosses. Most notable was the S&P, Dow Jones and Nasdaq experiencing not only a death cross created by the 50 and 200-day SMA, but also courtesy of the 10 and 40-week SMA. Despite the rally from the July lows, the sell signal triggered by the various death crosses remained active. The fact that the Dow Jones was the only major index to rally above the June 21 highs provides an additional bearish non-confirmation. Over the past ten years, the buy/sell action triggered by the SMA crosses has a success rate of 75% - 100%. Winning trades outperformed losing trades by a ratio of at least 3:1. In investing, those are not the kind of odds you want to bet against. In other words, it's time to face reality and abandon denial. Leading up to the April highs, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted a pinnacle of denial which was reflected by investors' outright enthusiasm about stocks. At a time when approximately 8 of 10 investment advisors and newsletter writers were bullish on stocks, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted: 'The message conveyed by the composite bullishness is unmistakably bearish. The pieces are in place for a major decline.' Since April 26, the major indexes dropped as much as 17%. Despite the recent rally, this seems to have been only the first installment of a significant decline. This decline is now in progress. In fact, the August issue of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter explains the one chart-pattern that explains why the next leg down will be strong and powerful. A British Historian noted decades ago that a wise person does at once what a fool does at last. Both do the same thing; only at different times. Will you get out of the markets way in time, or too late?
Here’s a new piece of the dismally murky puzzle which belies
a previous raison d’etre for rally: Greek
Bonds Slump As Austerity Backfires, Country Enters “Death Spiral”, And The
Violent End Game Approaches . Previously, Walmart same store sales were actually down (overseas
results were up), and, think about it. Isn’t Walmart, as essentially an
american based sales agent of china products a ‘contrarian indicator’ for the
the u.s.; that is , hasn’t Walmart’s rise coincided with american main street’s
demise. Similarly, fraudulent wall street high frequency churn and earn
programmed trade scams among many other
frauds as yet unprosecuted has heralded the death knell for american
business and the economy, generally. Old news at best and, that ‘not bad as expected, better than expected dog
don’t hunt no more’! ‘YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]:
… Retailers were also strong. As a group retailers climbed 1.8%. Discount
retail giant and Dow component Wal-Mart (WMT 51.02, +0.61) was
a solid performer on the back of in-line earnings and an improved
forecast. Home improvement retailer and
fellow Dow component Home Depot (HD 28.31, +0.93) had a more positive influence over
retailers. It posted better-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter, but
issued a rather mixed forecast. A smaller-than-expected increase in housing
starts during July didn't do anything to derail the stock this session. Housing
starts for July increased 1.7% month-over-month to an annualized rate of
546,000 units, which is less than the rate of 555,000 units that had been
widely anticipated. Building permits for July fell 3.1% month-over-month to an
annualized rate of 565,000, which is below the rate of 573,000 that had been
expected…’ But, just a push of the computer programmed trade button and off we go,
reality / valuation / economics be damned. In real security analysis (very
simplified / summarized), as opposed to the continued frauds on wall street,
one must begin with the largest and most significant aggregate (a simple word
picture / analogy: ‘rising tide lifts all boats’). If you get this right, the
probabilities in your favor are substantially enhanced. From there, you want
leading industries, and leading companies within said leading industries
(again, larger aggregates then picks, to enhance probabilities, not guarantees,
in your favor). Your time frame, 1-3-5 yrs tops for projections, (including
income statement/EPS, balance sheet, and applying an appropriate P/E – a
detailed, multi-faceted approach beyond what could be described in this
summary); and, that’s all they are, projections. Beyond that time frame, your
guess. On fraudulent wall street, every day, though already discounted in large
part (6-8 mos, approx.), the market spins, churns, and with lightning fast
computerized high-frequency trade programs commissions in huge volumes like no
other time in financial history when real valuation meant something, with no
net economic value added, but very lucrative to the frauds on wall street,
which ultimately is a net detriment to the economy / the nation /and other
industries as we’ve seen and as described elsewhere on this site and in these
posts http://albertpeia.com
. Preposterously, they even sometimes refer to seasonal factors as if hearing
them for the first time and ‘explaining’ an up move (almost invariably already
discounted). Today, they shrugged off the deepening economic reality despite the
election year frothing / manipulations. This
is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression.
The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market.
This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes
with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and
sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato
scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise,
will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are
criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. ].
Are You Ready
For How Bad It Will Get? Graham
Summers | ‘There
are numerous components in the latest GDP number that are extremely suspect. The vast majority of investors are going to
be taken to the cleaners.
I realize this view is far from the consensus. Even those who are in the bear
camp aver that the Stimulus did in fact bring us out of recession at least
temporarily.
However,
I would strongly contend that the recovery was in fact non-existent for the
following reasons:
1. The Government data used to validate
the recovery (GPD, unemployment, etc) is clearly massaged if not bordering on
outright propaganda
2. We are in fact in a depression and
the “recovery” was simply a bounce in economic activity taking place within the
context of a larger economy contraction
Regarding #1, every Government data
point used in promoting the “recovery” had some degree of fudging in it. Let’s
consider GDP for instance.
There are numerous devious tactics used
to overstate GDP growth, however, the most obvious gimmick the BLS uses is
overstating GPD growth in the present and then revising it lower in the
subsequent quarters.’
Kaufman on High Frequency Trading ‘Sen. Ted Kaufman (D., Del.) has been banging the drum on the need for
regulatory changes to high frequency trading for a while. His latest
thoughts on the matter take the form of a letter to SEC Chairwoman Mary Schapiro
urging — among other things — major high-frequency trading firms be
required to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Dow Jones Newswires’ Jacob Bunge reports:…’
Deceptive
Economic Statistics: While the economists lied the US economy died Paul Craig Roberts | The bought-and-paid-for-economists got all the
media forums for a decade. While they lied, the US economy died.
Manufacturing,
housing sectors exhibit diverging fortunes (Washington Post) I’d say understatement but I truly don’t
know what this headline means juxtaposed with ‘fortunes’.
Google
Yanks “Kill The Web” Article That Warned Of Internet Takeover Having at
first appeared as normal, our earlier article about Google’s plan to kill the
web has been completely de-listed from Google News. This is completely
unprecedented and underscores how keen Google is to prevent people from finding
out that it is a CIA-NSA front that is preparing to completely end the Internet
as we know it with the Verizon net-neutrality killing deal.
Drudgereport:
NEW LOW
FOR O: GALLUP DAILY SHOWS OBAMA 41% APPROVE, 52% DIS...
NEW
JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE TO 500,000...
Highest
level in 9 months...
CBO:
DEFICIT 9.1% OF GDP... DEVELOPING...
Homeowners
Expect Home Values to Fall More...
Death of
the 'McMansion': Era of Huge Homes Is Over...
Bankruptcies
Reach Nearly 5-Year High...
REPORT:
China targets U.S. troops with arms buildup...
Military
power growing...
Pentagon
warning...
Risky
game on the high seas...
How
long can America fend off the dragon?
'Without
a revolution, Americans are history'...
From Good to Mediocre ‘Through last Friday, 2,127 US companies had reported quarterly
numbers this earnings season. What started out as a strong earnings season is
going out with a whimper (earnings season ends tomorrow with Wal-Mart's report)…’
High Probability for Lower Market Prices Ahead ‘…Economic numbers being what they are (very poor), we
should expect a downward revision of second quarter GDP to 1.5% from the
originally disappointing number of 2.4%. As more data is being released it is
apparent that we are witnessing even further deterioration here in the third
quarter…We may have reached a tipping point where many are tired of others
being the benefactors of taxpayer money …’
Gold Providing Safety During Market Downturn ‘ … The death cross occurs when the 50
day moving average crosses the 200 day moving average on the downside. These
patterns, when combined with other technical indicators can predict major
market downturns…THE ODDS OF A LONG TERM DOWNTREND ARE
BECOMING HIGHLY PROBABLE. THESE SIGNALS COULD POSSIBLY INDICATE THE START OF A
TWELVE TO EIGHTEEN MONTH DOWN CYCLE. Gold, on the other hand, has shown
great relative strength despite the general markets correcting and negative
sentiment about the economy from Washington…’
Will
Quantitative Easing By The Federal Reserve Unleash Economic Hell? The Economic Collapse | Most of the folks populating Congress are so
incompetent that they should not even be hired to mop the floors of a Dairy
Queen.
China
surpasses Japan as world's No. 2 economy
(Washington Post) [ As
if we didn’t see that coming! ]
HOW TO BEAR MARKET PROOF YOUR PORFOLIO , On Friday
August 13, 2010, ‘… The 22 trading days following the April 26
market highs erased eight months worth of gains. Bear markets move much quicker
than bull markets.
Rule #1: Better too Early than too Late
When preparing for a bear market (we'll discuss in a
moment why we have been preparing for a bear market), it is prudent to start
early. Anyone who sold their long positions as early as September last year
would be in a better position than the buy-and hold crowd that is still
clinging to their holdings.
Rule #2: Don't Trust Wall Street and the Media
By now, even the mainstream media is sensing that
something might not be quite right with the market's performance. However,
there is still hope that the second half of the year will get a lift from
positive earning results. Before you bet your money on that line of reasoning,
consider the picture the media painted days within the April 2010 market top.
April 19, 2010 'America is back - The remarkable tale of
an economic turnaround' – Newsweek
'Recovery tilting to V-shape as profits prompts growth revision' - Bloomberg
April 25, 2010: 'U.S. stocks cheapest since 1990 on
analyst estimates' – Bloomberg
'Technical Analysts see room to roll' - Wall Street Journal
April 27, 2010 'Greece contagion fears unfounded' -
Reuters
May 3, 2010: 'Manufacturing in U.S. grows at fastest pace
since 2004 as recovery gains traction' - Bloomberg
Over the past two and a half months, the S&P
(NYSEArca: SPY - News) and Dow (NYSEArca: DIA - News) have lost as much as 17%. A 20% loss is
considered the mark of a new bear market. In essence, we are only one bad day
away from the next bear. Of course, throughout the massive bear market rally
from the March 2009 lows, which the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
predicted via the March 2, 2009 Trend Change Alert, the newsletter maintained
that it was only a bear market trap which would fool a majority of investors.
On April 16 it stated that 'Most bulls have no clue why they are bullish except
for the fact that they feel the need to play the momentum game. Sounds like
2000 and 2007 all over again. The message conveyed by the composite bullishness
is unmistakably bearish.'
Rule #3: Don't Underestimate Cash
In a period of falling prices, cash or cash equivalents
like short term Treasuries (NYSEArca: SHY - News) maintain your purchasing power -
long-term Treasuries (NYSEArca: TLT - News) are interest rate sensitive and may move
faster than you think. When stocks fall and you are able to maintain your
purchasing power, you are able to buy stocks at a discount. In essence, cash
offers a positive return in periods of falling prices. Additionally, or
alternatively, investors may choose to buy short or leveraged short ETFs such
as the Short S&P 500 ProShares (NYSEArca: SH - News), UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares
(NYSEArca: TWM - News) UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares
(NYSEArca: SDS - News), Short Financial ProShares (NYSEArca: SEF -News), Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3x Shares
(NYSEArca: FAZ - News) and many more.
Rule #4: Don't Procrastinate
On May 14, the ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter predicted that the S&P (NYSEArca: IVV - News) will fall through the important 1,040
resistance level. Aside from a small cluster of resistances (one being round
number resistance), a break below 1,040 opened the door wide for significantly
lower prices. We mentioned above that we've been preparing for a reemerging
bear market even before the April highs. Why? Simply put, stocks are
overvalued. How can that be? One of the above headlines read that U.S. stocks
are cheapest since 1990, at least according to analyst projections. The key
word is projections. Analysts project operating earnings for the S&P to
clock in at $94.83 in 2011. This is higher than the 2007 peak of $91.47. That's
right, despite record high unemployment, a European (NYSEArca: VGK - News) debt crisis, a 17% U.S. market
correction, and all the other problems economists expect corporate profits will
exceed their 2007 all-time highs. Does that sound reasonable to you? Keep in
mind that projected earnings are just that - projected. They can and will
change. In fact, analysts have a reputation of following the trend. In April
2008, analysts predicted earnings of $113. After cutting its forecast to $53,
Goldman Sachs cut its earnings forecast to $40 in March 2009. As we know today,
stocks rallied, and actual 2009 earnings came in at $56.87. The list goes on,
but the simple message is that analysts tend to be overly optimistic before the
fall and overly pessimistic before a rally. Right now they are overly
optimistic. The conclusion is easy.
Rule #5: Know who to Trust
Even when basing the current P/E ratio on overly
optimistic estimates, it is still far away from the P/E ratios seen at historic
market bottoms. The same holds true for dividend yields. A look at various
valuation measures shows that the market is overvalued by much more than just
10 or 20%. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter provides a detailed analysis of four
valuation metrics with a near spotless track record of historic
accuracy…’
No Exit, Stage Left or Right
Peter shiff ‘… Those who fear a double dip
recession are justified in their concerns, but they are also missing the big
picture. The 2008 recession never ended. It was merely interrupted by
trillions of dollars of stimulus that purchased GDP “growth” with borrowed
money. But as the bills come due, GDP should now contract … After decades
of abuse, it’s time for the Fed to take make a dramatic exit, because the US
economy can’t take it anymore.’
Capital Controls: The Final
Phase in the Great Looting of America Eric Blair | Capital controls are the
next big event in the government-banking-oligarchy’s great looting of America.
Fed Leads America “To The Brink
Of Collapse” When even the New York Times and CNN are admitting that the
United States faces not only a double-dip recession but potentially a new great
depression, any alarm bells that have not been rung should now be sounding loudly.
Bailouts Went To Foreign Banks:
Congressional Report Confirms What We Already Knew A Congressional Oversight
Panel issued today highlights the fact that large portions of the Treasury’s
$700 billion bailout fund have gone straight into the coffers of foreign banks,
a fact that we knew months ago, but is only now being officially recognised.
Marc Faber: Protect Your
Property with High Voltage Fences, Barbed Wire, Booby Traps, Military Weapons
and Dobermans Investment guru and publisher of The Gloom, Boom and Doom
report, Marc Faber, regularly discusses investment strategies for protecting
and building wealth during times of economic distress.
Warnings:
Social Security at risk
(Washington Post) [ Not this again! It bears repeating, that was always
a bad idea and there was a plethora of reasons set forth on my site as to why
the social security privatization plan being shilled by moron war criminal
dumbya bush on behalf of the wall street frauds was an exceedingly bad idea.
Indeed, as defacto insolvent as america / the social security system is, the
nation and system would have been wiped out by privatization debacle. Talk
about too big to, but still failed. It was a bad idea then, and though
accusations may fly as to fear mongering, the reality of the venality attendant
to such a preposterous course on behalf of the wall street frauds requires
vigilance, scrutiny, and discourse concerning even the remote possibility of
such a fool-hearty betrayal of the citizenry of the nation. As such, as off the
mark as wobama has almost invariably been, he’s on the mark on this. ]ANALYSIS | Obama says GOP wants to privatize program, but
liberals see a different threat.
Foreclosures
surge 9 percent in July (Washington
Post) Those glass-half-full frauds on wall street along with the administration
will be cheering this unequivocally bad news with a dubious retort as ‘used
home sales will rise’ … riiiight! Anything you say …
Stocks
dip for third straight day (Washington
Post) [Investor fears? How ‘bout reality. Even an essentially non-business site
as Drudge has the pulse of this pervasive realization that ‘those dogs of happy
days are here again don’t hunt no more’. Check the heads: DRUDGEREPORT: America Is
'Bankrupt Mickey Mouse Economy'...
WIRE:
USA 'Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It'...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT HITS RECORD HIGH
JOBLESS
CLAIMS JUMP TO HIGHEST SINCE FEB...
California
can't pay bills -- may use IOUs for August payments...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
Homes
lost to foreclosure up 6% from last year...
Grim
Voter Mood Turns Grimmer...
and Economists
Herald New Great Depression The world is
currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression,
according to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others
now forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.
Peter Schiff: “We’re in the
Early Stages of a Depression” The Motley Fool | Four years and the worst
recession since the Great Depression later, Schiff stands alone again with a
bleaker diagnosis for the economy: an inflationary depression. My take: This is a global
depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up
move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has
been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with
great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell
into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam /
fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will
not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are
criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed
Pearlstein: The
FCC and the bandwidth wars (Washington
Post) [The internet has been among the few areas of growth and american
prominence, at least at this point in time. Clearly, as with the throng that
heralded in NAFTA, the self-interested voices of ie., google, verizon, etc.,
are similarly anathema to the greater good (as was NAFTA). Berners-Lee spoke
against such parochialism in no uncertain terms, much as did Ross Perot on
NAFTA and history has proven Perot correct as is so of the mind numbing
approaches of google, verizon, etc.] Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse (infowars.com) [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the
internet along with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously
opposed same and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and
verizon as mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc.,
operatives at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government
hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went public today with their “policy
framework” — better known as the pact to end the Internet as we know it.
AP Business
Highlights ‘Jobs picture dims as
unemployment claims rise WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy is looking bleaker
as new applications for jobless benefits rose last week to the highest level in
almost six months. It's a sign that hiring remains weak and employers may be
going back to cutting their staffs. Analysts say the increase suggests
companies won't be adding enough workers in August to lower the 9.5 percent
unemployment rate. First-time claims for jobless benefits edged up by 2,000 to
a seasonally adjusted 484,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. That's the
highest total since February. Analysts had expected claims to fall…’
U.S.
trade deficit startles markets (Washington Post) [ Unexpectedly? I don’t
think so! And, I have my site, other references / links and posts to prove it;
and, what’s more, I’m not alone. After all, what are NAFTAs for anyway.
However, I also must candidly admit I don’t frequent the mainstream blather /
propaganda that includes the ‘money-honeys’ (when the messenger’s more
important than the message, problems and distortions are bound to follow) and
their ilk, etc.. NBR’s
about it and even they have their pressures (I don’t consider the Washington
Post mainstream in the pejorative sense of the word, with a rich journalistic
history to back that up, all things considered) ]. Unexpectedly bad news from
three continents reinforces fears that global recovery is faltering.
Obama signs $26 billion jobs
bill (WP) [I feel compelled to
comment here that even using capital hill math one would be hard-pressed to
justify $26 billion taxpayer / treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save
300,000 state / local government jobs! After all, the nation is defacto
bankrupt! I think the former Soviet Union would have done the same.]
Fed action signals new activism (Washington
Post) [ Riiiiight! The activist fed! That’s all we need. As if we needed more
of what brought us to this point! Certainly the fed’s role in the continuing
and current financial crisis / debacle cannot be ignored or disputed. Nothing
like a hegelian methodology to create
the very problems for which they are called upon to offer solutions, increasing
their sense of importance, and concentrating power thereby. (Think about it. It
is really rather quite absurd that each meeting time the financial markets hold
their bated breath for these incompetent boobs). Then there’s the cover-up with
an opportunity for enrichment of some, usually the tight-lipped yes-men then
ever after and forever bonded in what becomes tantamount to an almost fraternal
link by ‘virtue’ of the crime thereby. No, I’m not saying their initial
missteps were necessarily badly intended, but the manipulations thereafter to
obfuscate their incompetence (senile greenspun, no-recession-helicopter-ben,
etc.) comes at a great price and is nothing less than tantamount to or just
outright crime. I’d abolish the fed without hesitation or compunction. After
all, at this point of decline and defacto bankruptcy of the nation you
certainly can’t point to success nor argue their indispensability. Then there’s
also the missing trillions, over-printing of fiat currency, and all that sub
rosa activity with the worthless fraudulent toxic paper which I believe is
being supplanted with ultimately hard currency to the great benefit of the
frauds and great detriment to the nation.]
100-Year Bonds --- Sign of Trouble?
Monday in the Markets: MOJO Extremes The decline in yields is overdone, gold is
overbought, and crude oil and the euro are oversold. The Dow is not
oversold.The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury tested 2.531 on Friday versus my
quarterly risky level at 2.495. Gold tested $1239.5 last week and today’s risky
level is $1241.7. For Crude oil this week’s pivot is $73.59 with my annual
pivot at $77.05. The euro is below its 50-day simple moving average at 1.2739
this morning. For the Dow today’s value level is 9,983 with the 50-day simple
moving average at 10,303, and weekly and annual pivots at 10.358 and 10,379.
10-Year Note – (2.612) My annual pivot is 2.813 with a weekly pivot at 2.574
and daily risky level at 2.507. My annual value level is 2.999 with quarterly
and semiannual risky levels at 2.495 and 2.249. Note
that the decline in yield is extremely overdone [charts] …
Even
Tony Robbins Is Warning That An Economic Collapse Is Coming It seems like
almost everyone is warning of a coming economic collapse these days.
Jim
Rogers: If You Want Your Family To Be Silly Rich In The Future, Then Leave
America And Move To Asia Now As you may know, Jim Rogers moved to Singapore
in 2007, though he maintains a residence in the U.S. as well.
Stocks' Late Push: Some
Optimism, Some Pessimism [Late
push … as in a constipated bowel movement … Come on! Another one of those push
the computer programmed trade button and off we go, reality / valuation /
economics be damned. In real security analysis (very simplified / summarized),
as opposed to the continued frauds on wall street, one must begin with the
largest and most significant aggregate (a simple word picture / analogy:
‘rising tide lifts all boats’). If you get this right, the probabilities in
your favor are substantially enhanced. From there, you want leading industries,
and leading companies within said leading industries (again, larger aggregates
then picks, to enhance probabilities, not guarantees, in your favor). Your time
frame, 1-3-5 yrs tops for projections, (including income statement/EPS, balance
sheet, and applying an appropriate P/E – a detailed, multi-faceted approach
beyond what could be described in this summary); and, that’s all they are,
projections. Beyond that time frame, your guess. On fraudulent wall street,
every day, though already discounted in large part (6-8 mos, approx.), the
market spins, churns, and with lightning fast computerized high-frequency trade
programs commissions in huge volumes like no other time in financial history
when real valuation meant something, with no net economic value added, but very
lucrative to the frauds on wall street, which ultimately is a net detriment to
the economy / the nation /and other industries as we’ve seen and as described
elsewhere on this site and in these posts http://albertpeia.com . Preposterously, they
even sometimes refer to seasonal factors as if hearing them for the first time
and ‘explaining’ an up move (almost invariably already discounted). Today, they
shrugged off the deepening economic reality despite the election year frothing
/ manipulations. This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market
in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in
a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national
decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the
wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement
imposed. ].
Slowing economic rebound raises
unemployment fears (AP) [Wow! Talk about understatements!]
Marc Faber Questions if Dow
Could Hit 1,000 In the August edition of the ‘The Gloom, Boom
& Doom Report’ Marc Faber questions whether the Dow could hit 1,000 as predicted by Robert Prechter, based
on his interpretation of Elliot Waves, Fibonacci numbers and socioeconomic
trends. Prechter, who has written 13
books on finance (external link), believes
that the stock market is historically overvalued in terms of dividends and
earnings, because of a “great rise in positive social mood.” But the mood
changed in 2000 and the “trend toward negative social mood will lead to an
economic contraction,” according to Prechter. “Small bear markets lead to
recessions, big bear markets lead to depressions. The current bear market will
be the biggest in nearly 300 years, so the depression will be correspondingly
deep,” Prechter said.
Wall
St falls after weak outlooks drag (Reuters) U.S. stocks sagged in volatile
trading on Thursday after weak outlooks from technology companies and downbeat
comments from a Federal Reserve official gave investors little reason to buy.
Fed says some districts report slowing economy (Reuters)
Flaws of the European Stress Test … 'Bank stress test' became the magic phrase. Nothing calms fear
like a stress test that's labeled as rigorous. The stress test raises a few
very obvious questions: 1) Will it work? 2) Why was it needed in addition to a
$1 trillion aid package? 3) Is the stress test just a gimmick to appease
investors? The stress test is conducted by the London-based Committee of
European Banking Supervisors (CEBS). Ironically, the test has ignored the
majority of banks' holdings of sovereign debt. Sovereign debt concerns by the
so-called PIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain) triggered the
latest wave of financial problems. Ignoring sovereign debt in the Euro stress
test would be like ignoring toxic real estate assets in the U.S. 10%
Good - 90% Bad According to a Morgan Stanley survey, European banks hold about 90%
of their Greek government bonds in their banking books and 10% in their trading
books. The bonds in the banking book are generally held until maturity, the
bonds in the trading book are traded more frequently. According to a document
obtained by Bloomberg, the stress test assumes a loss of 23.1% on Greek debt,
14% on Portuguese bonds, 12.3% on Spanish debt, 4.7% on German debt, 10% on
U.K. debt, and 5.9% on French debt. However, the stress test only looks at the
bonds held in banks' trading books, which account for a mere 10% of Greek bond
holdings. Can that be called a stress test? Nouriel Roubini says that 'the
assumptions made about economic growth, about sovereign risk are not realistic
enough.' The fact that only seven banks failed the test with a combined
shortfall of $4.5 billion confirms the lax nature of the test. … The U.S. Bank Stress Test - A Nice Façade A closer look under the hood of
the U.S. bank stress test, however, shows that there's not much substance
behind the facade either. It was determined that the 19 tested U.S. banks need
to increase their balance sheets by $75 billion to meet the conditions of
what's termed the 'worst case scenario.' To a large extent, the $75 billion of
additional capital was financially engineered. Banks didn't have to actually
raise $75 billion. They were able to change the label of some of their assets
on their balance sheets. The government supported this practice via mandatory
convertible preferred shares (detailed analysis in May 2009 issue of the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter) …’
Moody's:
Regional banks on review for downgrade (AP)
Consumer
confidence dims (Reuters)
Job worries drove July U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest since
February, with one in six people expecting lower income in the next six months,
underscoring the precarious state of econo...
Global
steelmakers paint gloomy picture (Reuters)
US
bank failures in 2010 surpass 100
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. bank failures this year have surpassed a bleak
milestone of 100 as regulators shut down banks in Georgia, Florida, South
Carolina, Kansas, Nevada and Minnesota. The six bank seizures announced Friday
bring to 102 the failures so far in 2010. The pace of bank closures this year
is well ahead of that of last year, which saw a total 140 bank shuttered amid
the recession and mounting loan defaults …
On the Disconnect Between the Market and the Economy Michael Shulman:
(No recession helicopter ben) Bernanke Admits Major Policy Failures; Stocks Soar Darryl Montgomery What's wrong with this picture?
In his bi-annual testimony before Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke
admitted that after more than a year and a half of zero interest rates and $3
trillion in federal deficit spending since 2008, the best case
scenario for the U.S. economy is slow growth and high unemployment. The S&P
500 is up 2.5% so far this morning on this 'good' news. Bernanke's congressional testimony included the following
statements (emphasis added by me):
"Most [FOMC] participants viewed uncertainty
about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the
majority saw [at the June Fed meeting] the risks to growth as weighted to
the downside."
"Financial conditions--though much improved
since the depth of the financial crisis--have become less supportive of
economic growth in recent months."
"Many banks continue to have a large volume
of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight.
With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank
loans outstanding have continued to contract."
"After two years of job losses, private payrolls
expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this
year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially.
In all likelihood, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the
nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009."…
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Did Google Block “Barry
Soetoro” Search Term? Screenshots obtained by a Prison Planet reader suggest
that Google may have moved to de-list “Barry Soetoro” as a popular search term
shortly after it rose to the top of the Google Trends charts after yesterday’s
effort by radio talk show host Alex Jones to focus attention on Barack Obama’s
real name.
Feb
26, 2009 ... Bolton, the NEOCON gift that keeps on giving the
Repuglycans zero ... The problem with McCain was this. As a veteran
and a POW he get's high marks. ..... to get some treatment at the closest mental
health facility. ...
thinkprogress.org/2009/02/26/bolton-nukes-chicago/ -
Cached
- Similar
Aug
4, 2009 ... Bolton, like all neocons, doesn't understand that
there is ..... Of course, we all know it was BUSH who caused the problem
in the first place, right? .... they view the world in the light of their own mental
disorder, ...
thinkprogress.org/2009/08/.../bolton-north-korea-journalists/ - Cached
- Similar
Show
more results from thinkprogress.org
Dec
21, 2009 ... Re: Breaking: Neocon John Bolton Names Dick
Cheney "Conservati ... republicanism/conservatism is a mental
illness that is killing America and ... Problem is one side will
shamelessly try and stack the deck in their favor ...
crooksandliars.com › Blogs
› Logan
Murphy's blog - Cached
- Similar
Apr
17, 2007 ... On March 25, John Bolton was interviewed by BBC
Newsnight's Jeremy Paxman (video here). ... I think the real problem
was in not relying more on Iraqis. .... BTW, a mental giant, you are
not. The best thing to happen to ...
www.democrats.com › Blogs
› Bob
Fertik's blog - Cached
Bolton and his neo-con
crazies aren't setting the agenda anymore, ... And I do not mean the mental
condition of Mr Bolton and his fellow neocons. ...
www.lobelog.com/bolton-suggests-nuclear-attack-on-iran/ - Cached
- Similar
May
26, 2009 ... It's a special kind of mental illness. ... Bolton
has been derided as "the neocon's neocon" who "laps up
the hosannas of fellow ...
atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/.../dont-hold-your-breath-ambassador-bolton.html - Cached
Dec
4, 2006 ... Clyburn: E-Vote 'Hacked'; Rawl: 'Systemic Software Problems'
.... Add 'The Fall of the NeoCons: Bye Bye Bolton' to
Del.icio · Add 'The ... The Army's Lack of Mental Health Treatment for
Returning Troops" NEXT STORY » ...
www.bradblog.com/?p=3873 - Cached
30
posts - 4 authors - Last post: 21 hours ago
"Religion
is science for the mental ill" - Myself ... John Bolton
is a Bush neo con,,, obviously broke and needing the money. ...
www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1163684/pg2
New
article on darkpolitricks: Neocon Bolton Renews Call for Israel to
Bomb Iran http: darkpoltweeter (Dark Politricks RT): New article on
darkpolitricks: ...
www.wwnewsflash.com/bolton
· [PDF]
File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat - Quick
View
a sweeping diagnosis, it's clear that mental health has been a problem
within ...... Neocon icon John Bolton, Bush's abrasive former
Ambassador to the UN, ...
www.sf911truth.org/neocons.pdf
On
Facebook: Israeli soldier posed with bound Arab (AP)
China
focuses on military might (Washington Post) [And the big difference here (between them
and defacto bankrupt america) is that ‘THEY CAN AFFORD IT’ and are not fighting
nation-bankrupting, anti-american-sentiment-creating wars all over the
place.] Nation is quickly modernizing
forces, extending influence deep into Pacific and Indian oceans.
Afghans
still see U.S. as bad guy (Washington Post
) [Riiiiight! Sounds like a plan … winning hearts and minds throughout the
world … great for exports also as such ‘won hearts and minds’ just love to buy
american.] American, NATO forces retain blame for civilian deaths despite spike
from insurgent violence.
U.S.
Stock Market - T. Rowe Price / Week Ended August 20, 2010 The large-cap
stock indexes fell for the second consecutive week, but the smaller-cap indexes
and the technology-oriented Nasdaq managed minor gains. Stocks moved solidly
higher on Tuesday as investors welcomed news of a major takeover offer in the
mining industry alongside news of surprisingly good earnings at retail giant
Wal-Mart. Investors were also encouraged by reports of rises in wholesale
prices and industrial production in July—positive economic data that stood in
contrast to a recent string of reports showing a slowdown in the economic
recovery. Those worrisome signals reappeared on Thursday, however, when the
Labor Department reported a rise in weekly jobless claims to 500,000, the
highest level since last fall. A surprising and significant decline in a gauge
of a regional manufacturing activity also weighed on sentiment and overshadowed
news of a major merger in the technology sector. Stocks fell further on Friday
in response to a decline in the euro, but hopes for further merger activity
appeared to help limit losses as the trading week came to a close.
U.S. Stocks1 |
|||
Index2 |
Friday's Close |
Week's Change |
% Change |
DJIA |
10213.62 |
-89.53 |
-2.06% |
S&P 500 |
1071.69 |
-7.56 |
-3.89% |
NASDAQ Composite |
2179.76 |
6.28 |
-3.94% |
S&P MidCap 400 |
736.52 |
1.93 |
1.35% |
Russell 2000 |
610.67 |
0.82 |
-3.69% |
World Indices / Week ended
August 20, 2010 Yahoo Finance
BEAR MARKET MATH - JULY LOWS IN
DANGER , On Friday August
20, 2010, 4:53 pm EDT ‘
1+1=2
2+2=4
The simplicity
and accuracy of those calculations is undeniable. How about this equation?
Fundamental Weakness + Technical Sell Signals + Overpriced Stocks = Lower Stock
Prices. This calculation also seems to be simple and accurate. Let's look at
some equations that don't make sense.
1+1=3 or Better Earnings = Higher Stock Prices Earnings season is over. Most companies
beat earnings but issued cautious forecasts. This is particularly true of the
tech (NYSEArca: XLK - News)
and financial sectors (NYSEArca: XLF - News).
By large, profits are still driven by cost-cutting, not organic growth. Retail
sales, which make up about one third of the economy, continued to fall after
the second quarter ended. Additionally, the expectation that taxes will go up
might have moved some companies to pull some of next year's income into this
year. This can't be good for Q3 and Q4 profits. As the chart below shows,
positive earnings reports are not bullish for stocks, especially if future
guidance is weak.[chart]
2+2=5 or Weaker than Expected Economy = Rising Stock Prices On July 30, the Bureau of Economic
Analysis (BEA) lowered the previous quarter's Gross Domestic Product (GD)
growth from an estimated 2.7% to 2.4%. But it didn't stop there. The real GDP
for all three previous years was revised as well. It was lowered by 0.2% for
2007, it was lowered by 0.6% for 2008, and it was lowered by 0.4% for 2009. In
percentage terms, the real GDP for 2007 was revised down from 2.5% growth to
2.3%. The 2008 decrease was lowered from 1.9% to 2.8% and 2009 growth was
revised up from a 0.1% to a 0.2% increase. In essence, the BEA proved that the
recession was (or is) much deeper than perceived and the alleged recovery much
weaker than previously reported. This comes as no surprise, as the key sector
of the financial debacle - real estate (NYSEArca: IYR
- News)
- remains in a funk. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that the number of vacant
properties, including foreclosures, residences for sale, and vacation homes,
reached 18.9 million. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continue to lose money. Has
anyone ever wondered how banks (NYSEArca: KBE
- News)
can make money on the same kind of loans that pushed Fannie and Freddie to the
brink of ruin? Since bad real estate loans triggered the post 2007 economic
meltdown, how can the economy recover without real estate leading the way?
3+3=7 or Positive
Analyst Estimates = Higher Stock Prices A recent Associated Press article observed that 'analysts
only seem to hit the mark with their estimates in the strongest economic times
(2003 - 2006).' Why? 'The problem is that analysts get most of their
information from the companies they cover. Corporate managers have every
incentive to stay positive for as long as they can.' Is that true; as true as
1+1=2? On April 26, the day the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) topped at 1,219, the Dow (DJI:
^DJI) at 11,258, the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) at 2,535, Bloomberg reported the
following: 'U.S. stocks cheapest since 1990 on analyst estimates.' Contrary to
analyst estimates, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter stated that 'the
potential exists that Monday's high marked a significant top.' Since April, the
broad market (NYSEArca: TWM - News)
dropped as much as 17%. In March 2009, with the Dow below 7000 and the S&P
below 700, analysts lowered their earnings forecasts from $113 in April 2008 to
$40. On March 2nd, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter sent out a Trend Change
Alert and recommended to buy long and leveraged long ETFs such as the Ultra
Financial (NYSEArca: UYG - News)
and Ultra S&P 500 ProShares (NYSEArca: SSO
- News).
If you care to know, analysts estimate that earnings for the S&P 500 will
exceed their 2006 all-time high, in 2011. Based on that assumption, stocks are
cheap. How about that for flawed math?
4+4=9 or Technical Sell Signals = Higher Stock Prices The 200-day moving average (MA) is one
of the best-known technical indicators, as it provides delineation between
technically healthy and sick stocks. On May 20, the S&P closed below the
200-day MA for the first time since late 2007. Every attempt to rally and stay
above it has since failed miserably. On July 2, the 50-day MA for the S&P
dropped below its 200-day MA for the first time since late 2007. The same holds
true for mid caps (NYSEArca: MDY - News),
small caps (NYSEArca: IWM - News)
and nearly all individual sector indexes. For good reason, this is called a
Death Cross. Over the past ten years, the death cross has been accurate 75% of
the time, with a 19.72% average return on six winning trades and 6.95% average
return on two losing trades. In addition to the Death Cross, there are two head
and shoulders patterns, one in the making for over 10 years, and the other has
the breadth suggestive of a major meltdown (see September ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter).
5+5=11 or Overvalued Stocks = Higher Prices As explained above, based on overly
optimistic earnings estimates, analysts believe that stocks are cheap. Rather
than basing a future outlook on estimates, it makes sense to use facts as a
foundation for any outlook. Why add an extra variable to what's already an
unpredictable market? Ask Yale Professor Robert Shiller, who's done extensive
research on the subject of valuations, and he'll tell you stocks are
historically overvalued based on the current P/E ratio. Compare today's P/E
ratio with the P/E ratio seen at major market bottoms, and you'll see that
stocks are overvalued by more than 50%. Another gauge that doesn't lie is
dividend yields. A company's dividends are a direct reflection of cash flow and
financial health. The current yield is 2.65% for the Dow and 2.05% for the
S&P. Even value funds like the iShares Russell 1000 Value (NYSEArca: IWD
- News)
yield only a measly 2.08%. Dividends are close to their all-time low set in 1999
(we know what happened then). This means that companies are cash strapped or
overvalued. Looking at a long-term chart of dividend yields plotted against
stock prices shows clearly that markets don't bottom until dividends skyrocket.
Just as ice doesn't thaw unless the temperature moves above 32 degrees, the
economy won't thaw and show signs of life unless P/E ratios drop to, and
dividend yields rise to, levels seen at major market tops. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
includes a detailed analysis of four valuation metrics, along with short-term
target ranges for stocks and the ultimate market bottom. Based on simple math
and common sense, the July lows are certainly in danger. But it doesn't stop
there.’
DOES HISTORY REPEAT, RHYME OR JUST HAVE COINCIDENCES? Lounsbury: ‘This week the following graph from Chartoftheday.com
has been annotated by the author to highlight similarities of the current era
for stocks to a corporate earnings pattern traced out nearly a century ago.
[chart] Annotation by John B. Lounsbury August 20, 2010 The time scale of the
current era (right hand oval) is compressed relative to that of a century ago,
but the occurrence of extremes displays a remarkable similarity in pattern with
events 1-4 from 1907 to 1921. It is tempting to project that the rest of the
pattern could repeat, but I refer you back to the title question. Perhaps the
replication of events 1-4 is as far as the current pattern will go. Or perhaps
the pattern replication is pure coincidence. I am not aware of the data source
for the graph above since the S&P 500 has only a 60 year existence. Data
before 1950 must be created by simulation. The most widely recognized
simulation has been constructed by Prof.
Robert Shiller, Yale University and this may well be the data used.
The pattern of graph in the 1920s and early 1930s implies that the collapse of
earning in 1921 might have resulted from structural economic problems that were
insufficiently addressed in the years that followed, resulting in the
subsequent economic breakdown from 1929-32. One economic occurrence of the
1920s was the concentration of income and wealth in the hands of a few. This is
a phenomenon that has occurred again over the last 10-20 years and appears may
still be in progress. See the following graph from Emmanuel Saez: (chart) I would suggest that the question of
distribution of income is one that deserves more analysis and discussion. Is
there a healthy distribution? Do high concentrations of income to a few (such
as the 1920s to 30s and 1995 to 2000s) present signs of economic instability?
Or do they contribute to economic instability? Are there any other major
contributors to income distribution besides the obvious one of federal income
tax policy? For example, is the rise of high income concentration in the 1990s
the result of a flurry of innovation in the new information technology? Or, is
the rise of the 2000s the result a flurry of financial innovation? Considering
the two flurries of the preceding paragraph, are both positive for promoting a
growth of economic activity? If you peel the speculative gains out of the 1990s,
the result was a revolution in communications and commerce. Some of the growth
in high incomes was from speculation, but that was quickly stripped out on the
collapse of the dot.com bubble. I maintain that there was a residual economic
benefit from the dot.com bubble. Things of economic utility were produced. I
have difficulty in coming to a similar conclusion for the credit bubble of the
2000s. Has anything of economic utility resulted? I have not found it. And
counter to the effect of the dot.com collapse, the credit bubble collapse may
not have stripped out some of the speculative income excesses. Wall Street
bonuses are back to pre-crisis levels and there has been no
"claw-back" of ill-gotten gains from the pirates who seized the
economic ship. In fact, the pirates are still in command of the ship and are
still under full sail. Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum! From my first Treasury report:
… the problem was that our systems,
especially in finance and health care, are too heavily focused on pay for
transactions rather than pay for outcomes. I didn’t have the presence of mind
to bring instant gratification into the discussion, but that would have
certainly made my thought process clearer.
I don't think this created any waves,
but I will continue to wail in the wilderness about how compensation formulas
contribute to and compound the structural problems in our financial system. So,
back to the earnings chart that started this discussion. In view of what has
been discussed here I believe we will find that history, in this instance, will
at least rhyme, if not repeat exactly. Structural economic problems are
sufficiently similar for the two eras that I expect we will see some form of
recurrence of events 5 and 6 [Depression] …’
DISMANTLING BULLISH ARGUMENTS , On Thursday August 19, 2010, 4:24 pm A good friend of mine let me in on a
well-guarded investment secret. $1,000 invested each in Nortel, Delta Airlines,
Enron and Worldcom years ago, would be worth less than $100 today. But if you
had purchased $1,000 worth of wine, consumed the fermented grapes and returned
the bottles for the recycling refund, you would have around $200, in addition
to a good time. With the tech (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) and financial (NYSEArca: XLF
- News)
meltdown out of the way, many believe that the time of bottle recycling refunds
outperforming stocks has passed. There is some evidence though that loading up
on wine - at least to dull the pain of another decline - isn't a terrible idea.
Let's examine both points of view.
Bull Market Argument #1 - Stocks are Cheap Even though the economy is in the
worst shape since the Great Depression, economists at large believe that stocks
(NYSEArca: IVV - News)
are cheap. In fact, with the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) trading above 1,200, analysts
claim that stocks are the cheapest since 1990 (Bloomberg, April 26, 2010).
Quite to the contrary, on April 16, in no uncertain terms, the ETF Profit
Strategy Newsletter stated: 'at current earnings, prices and dividend yields,
stocks are not cheap. The message conveyed by the composite bullishness is
unmistakably bearish. The pieces are in place for a major decline.' If stocks
were cheap at S&P 1,200, they must be dirt-cheap at S&P 1,100. Cheap
based on what assumption though? Based on analysts' projections, earnings for
the S&P 500 are to reach an all-time high in 2011, surpassing even the 2006
peak. Since earnings make up half of the price/earnings (P/E) ratio, stocks
appear cheap based on record projected earnings. The key word is 'projected.' A
recent Associated Press article states that 'their track record shouldn't give
anyone confidence. History shows analysts rarely get it right when it comes to
predicting how much companies will earn. Analysts almost never see a
recession coming.' Looking at data from the last 25 years, research from the
consulting firm McKinsey & Co. found analysts have estimated annual
earnings growth to be about 10 - 12% for the S&P. Actual growth has only
been about 6%. Keep in mind that the past 25 years housed the biggest bull
market in American history. We've previously analyzed the folly of relying on
projected earnings forecasts and therefore, will only pose two more facts as
food for thought before moving onto the next argument. Even if earnings
are positive the market can decline, as we've seen with the 9% and 17% declines
in January and May. Most of the earnings growth has been fueled by
cost-cutting, not organic growth. What does that tell us about the
sustainability of growth?
Bull Market Argument #2 - Cash on the Sidelines Cash on the sideline is viewed as
bullish because, theoretically, it can be used to buy stocks and drive up
prices. Some distinguish between corporate cash and retail cash on the
sidelines. Many forget that for every dollar in cash, there is a debt that has
to be repaid. According to the Federal Reserve, nonfinancial firms' debt totals
$7.2 trillion, the highest level ever. As far as retail investors go, the current
debt-income ratio is at 126%. The pre-bubble average was around 70%. To get
back to the pre-bubble norm, about $6 trillion worth of debt would have to be
eliminated. Retail money in money market funds is currently around the same
level as it was in 2006/2007. Is that bullish?
Debunking the Bond Myth No doubt there's been a migration from investment dollars
out of stocks and into bonds and gold. The iShares iBoxx $ Investment
Grade Corporate Bond ETF (NYSEArca: LQD
- News),
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (NYSEArca: HYG
- News)
and SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF (NYSEArca: JNK
- News)
have benefited from this migration. It's generally perceived that money in bond
funds is safe. Did you know that corporate bonds dropped as much as 27% in
2008? Did you know that junk bonds dropped as much as 47%? To assume that money
stored in bond funds will always be there to buy stocks is nave. The current
bond yields, in fact, confirm the notion that bonds are reaching bubble
territory. The yield of inflation protected 10-year TIPS has dropped below 1%.
The iShares Barclays TIPS Bond ETF (NYSEArca: TIP
- News)
is close to its all time high. The risk in 10-year Treasuries is high as well.
If 10-year Treasury yields rise from 2.8% to 4%, bondholders would suffer a
loss that would equal three times the current yield. That's not catastrophic,
but not bullish for stocks either. Bonds - especially corporate high yield
bonds - could soon assume the role real estate had in 2006. Many thought that
real estate (NYSEArca: IYR - News)
will always go up. As it turns out, real estate prices can move in both
directions, as can bond prices.
A Closer Look at Gold What about gold? With nearly $40 billion in assets, the
SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD - News)
has become the second biggest ETF behind SPY. The iShares COMEX Gold Trust
(NYSEArca: IAU - News)
exists in the shadow of GLD. It is unlikely that money that has moved into gold
will flow back into equities. If gold is at the brink of a bull market, there
is no reason for investors to pull money. If the economy does deteriorate
further, gold - regardless of its price - will still fare better than equities.
To summarize; Yes, investors have been yanking record amounts out of stock
funds. Nevertheless, mutual fund cash levels are still at an all time low. As
the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted, mutual fund cash levels are a fairly
reliable contrarian indicator. The more invested mutual funds are, the higher
the chance for a correction. The previous cash level low was recorded in August
of 2007. We know what happened then. Rather than focusing on the sideline cash,
perhaps we should focus on the trillions of dollars still in the market. More
selling means lower prices.
'Stocks are Cheap' vs. Realistic Valuations Using projected earnings to determine
the markets real value is like counting chickens that have yet to hatch. Things
change, and as studies have shown, analysts and economist are usually the last
to discern that change. Market forecasting based on solid facts is tricky
enough, but basing forecasts on thin assumptions usually translates into
financial suicide. That's why we like to stick to facts that come directly from
the market. It increases the odds of success. In a recent study, we plotted
three of the most basic, but most reliable, valuation metrics against the
historic performance of the Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI). The visual results were
clear and undisputable. Stock market tops when P/E ratios are high, dividend
yields are low and mutual fund cash reserves are low. Over the past year, we
have seen P/E ratios at an all-time high, dividend yields close to their 1999
low, and mutual fund cash levels at an all-time low. In addition, we have also
seen investor optimism soar to levels reminiscent of 2000 and 2007…
Drudgereport:
NEW LOW
FOR O: GALLUP DAILY SHOWS OBAMA 41% APPROVE, 52% DIS...
'Allahu
Akbar!' Iran test fires new missile...
'Al-Qaida
prepares for Israel-Iran war'...
US
Assures Israel Nuclear Iran Isn't Imminent...
Israel
tells UN it will stop new Gaza aid flotilla...
Lebanon
refuses to bow to warning...
CHICAGOLAND:
ShoreBank Closed by FDIC...
...strong
ties to Obama administration
USA
DEBT: $13,310,379,000,000.00
$44,000 PER CITIZEN...
NEW
JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE TO 500,000...
Highest
level in 9 months...
CBO:
DEFICIT 9.1% OF GDP... DEVELOPING...
Homeowners
Expect Home Values to Fall More...
DISMANTLING BULLISH ARGUMENTS , On Thursday August 19, 2010, 4:24 pm A good friend of mine let me in on a
well-guarded investment secret. $1,000 invested each in Nortel, Delta Airlines,
Enron and Worldcom years ago, would be worth less than $100 today. But if you
had purchased $1,000 worth of wine, consumed the fermented grapes and returned
the bottles for the recycling refund, you would have around $200, in addition
to a good time. With the tech (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) and financial (NYSEArca: XLF
- News)
meltdown out of the way, many believe that the time of bottle recycling refunds
outperforming stocks has passed. There is some evidence though that loading up
on wine - at least to dull the pain of another decline - isn't a terrible idea.
Let's examine both points of view.
Bull Market Argument #1 - Stocks are Cheap Even though the economy is in the
worst shape since the Great Depression, economists at large believe that stocks
(NYSEArca: IVV - News)
are cheap. In fact, with the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) trading above 1,200, analysts
claim that stocks are the cheapest since 1990 (Bloomberg, April 26, 2010).
Quite to the contrary, on April 16, in no uncertain terms, the ETF Profit
Strategy Newsletter stated: 'at current earnings, prices and dividend yields,
stocks are not cheap. The message conveyed by the composite bullishness is
unmistakably bearish. The pieces are in place for a major decline.' If stocks
were cheap at S&P 1,200, they must be dirt-cheap at S&P 1,100. Cheap
based on what assumption though? Based on analysts' projections, earnings for
the S&P 500 are to reach an all-time high in 2011, surpassing even the 2006
peak. Since earnings make up half of the price/earnings (P/E) ratio, stocks
appear cheap based on record projected earnings. The key word is 'projected.' A
recent Associated Press article states that 'their track record shouldn't give
anyone confidence. History shows analysts rarely get it right when it comes to
predicting how much companies will earn. Analysts almost never see a
recession coming.' Looking at data from the last 25 years, research from the
consulting firm McKinsey & Co. found analysts have estimated annual
earnings growth to be about 10 - 12% for the S&P. Actual growth has only
been about 6%. Keep in mind that the past 25 years housed the biggest bull
market in American history. We've previously analyzed the folly of relying on
projected earnings forecasts and therefore, will only pose two more facts as
food for thought before moving onto the next argument. Even if earnings
are positive the market can decline, as we've seen with the 9% and 17% declines
in January and May. Most of the earnings growth has been fueled by
cost-cutting, not organic growth. What does that tell us about the
sustainability of growth?
Bull Market Argument #2 - Cash on the Sidelines Cash on the sideline is viewed as
bullish because, theoretically, it can be used to buy stocks and drive up
prices. Some distinguish between corporate cash and retail cash on the
sidelines. Many forget that for every dollar in cash, there is a debt that has
to be repaid. According to the Federal Reserve, nonfinancial firms' debt totals
$7.2 trillion, the highest level ever. As far as retail investors go, the
current debt-income ratio is at 126%. The pre-bubble average was around 70%. To
get back to the pre-bubble norm, about $6 trillion worth of debt would have to
be eliminated. Retail money in money market funds is currently around the same
level as it was in 2006/2007. Is that bullish?
Debunking the Bond Myth No doubt there's been a migration from investment dollars
out of stocks and into bonds and gold. The iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade
Corporate Bond ETF (NYSEArca: LQD - News),
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (NYSEArca: HYG
- News)
and SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF (NYSEArca: JNK
- News)
have benefited from this migration. It's generally perceived that money in bond
funds is safe. Did you know that corporate bonds dropped as much as 27% in
2008? Did you know that junk bonds dropped as much as 47%? To assume that money
stored in bond funds will always be there to buy stocks is nave. The current
bond yields, in fact, confirm the notion that bonds are reaching bubble
territory. The yield of inflation protected 10-year TIPS has dropped below 1%.
The iShares Barclays TIPS Bond ETF (NYSEArca: TIP
- News)
is close to its all time high. The risk in 10-year Treasuries is high as well.
If 10-year Treasury yields rise from 2.8% to 4%, bondholders would suffer a
loss that would equal three times the current yield. That's not catastrophic,
but not bullish for stocks either. Bonds - especially corporate high yield
bonds - could soon assume the role real estate had in 2006. Many thought that
real estate (NYSEArca: IYR - News)
will always go up. As it turns out, real estate prices can move in both
directions, as can bond prices.
A Closer Look at Gold What about gold? With nearly $40 billion in assets, the
SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD - News)
has become the second biggest ETF behind SPY. The iShares COMEX Gold Trust (NYSEArca:
IAU
- News)
exists in the shadow of GLD. It is unlikely that money that has moved into gold
will flow back into equities. If gold is at the brink of a bull market, there
is no reason for investors to pull money. If the economy does deteriorate
further, gold - regardless of its price - will still fare better than equities.
To summarize; Yes, investors have been yanking record amounts out of stock
funds. Nevertheless, mutual fund cash levels are still at an all time low. As
the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted, mutual fund cash levels are a fairly
reliable contrarian indicator. The more invested mutual funds are, the higher
the chance for a correction. The previous cash level low was recorded in August
of 2007. We know what happened then. Rather than focusing on the sideline cash,
perhaps we should focus on the trillions of dollars still in the market. More
selling means lower prices.
'Stocks are Cheap' vs. Realistic Valuations Using projected earnings to determine
the markets real value is like counting chickens that have yet to hatch. Things
change, and as studies have shown, analysts and economist are usually the last
to discern that change. Market forecasting based on solid facts is tricky
enough, but basing forecasts on thin assumptions usually translates into
financial suicide. That's why we like to stick to facts that come directly from
the market. It increases the odds of success. In a recent study, we plotted
three of the most basic, but most reliable, valuation metrics against the
historic performance of the Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI). The visual results were
clear and undisputable. Stock market tops when P/E ratios are high, dividend
yields are low and mutual fund cash reserves are low. Over the past year, we
have seen P/E ratios at an all-time high, dividend yields close to their 1999
low, and mutual fund cash levels at an all-time low. In addition, we have also
seen investor optimism soar to levels reminiscent of 2000 and 2007…
YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]:
‘Some ugly data sent stocks spiraling lower Thursday. The selloff slowed when
the stock market approached its monthly low, though. The tone on trading floors turned uneasy with this morning's
release of initial jobless claims figures for the week ended August 14. Not
only did the tally hit a half million for the first time since November, but it
also exceeded the 475,000 claims that had been widely expected. Early weakness was exacerbated by the worst
Philadelphia Fed Index in just over a year. The Index's August reading was
widely expected to come in at 7.5, but it dropped to -7.7 instead. A gradual selloff ensued. The breadth of the
selling effort took stocks through support levels of the two prior sessions and
only eased when the S&P 500 came within reach of the August low that was
set this past Monday. Though technical support helped stocks stem their losses,
pressure persisted into the close and stocks failed to squeeze higher in the
final hour…’
THE BARRAGE OF NEWS ‘FLASHES’, AS IF THE SAME WAS
UNEXPECTED DESPITE ‘HIDING’ IN PLAIN SIGHT!
·
Stocks drop on trifecta of bad news (at
CNNMoney.com)
Celente:
Stock Market Crash Before End of 2010 Gerald Celente believes that the stock market will crash before
the end of 2010 , gold will soar.
Fed
Official Admits the Fed Starts Boom/Bust Cycles There are all kinds of
things awry with this article…
Bulls Scatter ... Again ‘At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we wanted to once again
highlight the lack of conviction among investors and advisors in the current
market environment. Following the July rally, bullish sentiment based on the Investors
Intelligence weekly survey jumped to its highest level since May. Then
last week, the S&P 500 dropped more than 3% and the bulls scattered. In
this week's survey, bullish sentiment declined 12% for its largest weekly
decline since the flash crash…’
Know Your Indicators: Hindenburg Omen ‘…Below we outline the five criteria (taken from Zero Hedge) that need to be satisfied in order
for the indicator to be triggered. They are:
Another Round of POMO: Dave's Daily ‘…Thursday we'll get another round of Uncle Sugar's
special blend via more POMO (Permanent Open Market Operations). This private
label brew will go directly to the Primary Dealers (dba: Da Boyz) who will use
it to trade as before…’
More Fuel For a Bigger Decline , On Tuesday
August 17, 2010, 4:18 pm EDT A
French proverb states that a fault denied is committed twice. Denial, as
blissful as it is for the time being, does not serve as protection against the
inevitable.A perfect example of denial is the May 6 flash crash. Neither Wall
Street, the financial media, nor investors wanted to see the danger of such a
meltdown beforehand. After it happened, they were in denial about the cause.
Denial is Bliss
The
simple truth is that the market was ripe for a major correction. A few weeks
before the flash crash, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted the extremely
low CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio and warned: 'It seems that only a minority of
equity positions are equipped with a put safety net. Once prices do fall and
investors do get afraid of incurring losses, the only option is to sell. Selling,
results in more selling. This negative feedback loop usually results in rapidly
falling prices.' As it turns out, there was no clumsy-fingered trader at fault
for the decline that reduced the Dow (DJI: ^DJI) by more than 1,000 points in
one day. If it had been a simple error, stocks wouldn't have fallen to new lows
after the flash crash. If it had been a simple error, the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC)
and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) wouldn't still be trading below the flash crash
close.
The Reality of Denial
But,
that's the power of denial. Since the April 26 highs, the S&P has been
moving from lower highs to lower lows. On July 1, the S&P had arrived at
1,011. The ensuing rally lifted the markets by nearly 10%, but failed to push
the S&P and Nasdaq above the July 21 highs. The July 21 highs failed to
move above the May 12 highs. The May 12 highs were significantly short of the
April 26 highs. Despite the obvious downtrend, investors get as excited about
dead end bounces as ever. This is not a bullish omen. In fact, according to the
ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter's technical analysis, the steepest leg of the
decline is still ahead. Before we look at more technical details, let's browse
through some fundamental factors that reflect the current state of denial:
Don't Worry About Bank
Failures
111
banks were added to the FDIC's failed bank list thus far in 2010. At the same
time last year, only 76 banks had been shut down. According to an FDIC press
release, Metro Bank of Dade County had total assets of $442.3 million and total
deposits of $391.3 million. Assets outweigh liabilities by $51 million. That's
good, but apparently not accurate. According to the FDIC's press release,
closing Metro Bank will cost the FDIC $67.6 million. Why? Because an accounting
trick allows banks to artificially inflate their assets. The accounting trick
allowed this small bank to overstate its assets by about 25%. Other banks on
the FDIC list overstated their assets by more than 50%. Imagine the size of the
problem, considering that the four biggest banks (NYSEArca: KBE
- News)
of the country have about $7.5 trillion in combined assets. We should also
point out that none of those losses technically affect earnings, at least not
yet (for a detailed analysis refer to the June issue of the ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter).
Don't Worry About Falling
Real Estate
The
National Association of Home Builders reported that its monthly reading of
builder's sentiment about the housing market sank to 14, the lowest level since
March 2009. Unlike other economic indicators, this index is taken from builders
that have their finger on the pulse of Main Street and is forward looking.
Despite the rally in equities (NYSEArca: VTI
- News)
and real estate (NYSEArca: IYR - News),
homebuilders (NYSEArca: XHB - News)
never really saw light at the end of the tunnel.
Don't Worry About
Foreclosures
According
to RealtyTrac, more than 1 million American households are likely to lose their
homes to foreclosure this year. This is about 10 times as high as during an
average year. 25% of the U.S. household sector has a sub-600 FICO score. Yet,
Fannie Mae is offering financing to first-time buyers who only have a $1,000
down-payment. Nearly $150 billion have been spent to keep the doors of Fannie,
Freddie and company open. Does it make sense to artificially extend the
life of a patient destined to die? In the case of Fannie, politicians seem to
think that lending more money and ultimately creating more toxic assets will
solve the problems. Even a third grader understands the irony of that concept.
Denial is alive and well.
Don't Worry About Bankrupt
States
States
are in trouble. The bigger the state, the bigger the trouble it seems.
California has a $1.8 trillion economy. If CA was a country, its economy would
be the seventh biggest in the world, bigger than Russia. But, CA has no money.
CNN reports that as many as 200,000 state workers in CA could see their pay
scale slashed to minimum wage, if orders from the governor's office are
followed. You don't need to be one of the 200,000 to know that is bad. To go
from state salary to minimum wage is a huge drop.
Don't Worry About Falling
Prices
Look
around and you see a general downtrend develop: U.S. stocks (NYSEArca: IWB
- News),
international stocks (NYSEArca: EFA - News)
and emerging market stocks (NYSEArca: EEM
- News).
The same applies to commodities (NYSEArca: DBC
- News),
real estate prices (NYSEArca: RWR - News)
and consumer goods. The above-mentioned 'don't worries' all contribute to the
deflationary spiral (see image below for a visual). Unemployment remains high
because businesses have no pricing power. This leads to lower income, default
foreclosures, and ultimately even higher unemployment. Even Bernanke knows,
there is no easy fix to a deflationary cycle. Once engrained, it feeds on
itself. [chart]
Don't Worry About Death
Crosses
A death cross is one of the most powerful technical indicators. It occurs when the shorter simple moving average (SMA) crosses below the longer SMA. Over the last few weeks we saw literally dozens of such death crosses. Most notable was the S&P, Dow Jones and Nasdaq experiencing not only a death cross created by the 50 and 200-day SMA, but also courtesy of the 10 and 40-week SMA. Despite the rally from the July lows, the sell signal triggered by the various death crosses remained active. The fact that the Dow Jones was the only major index to rally above the June 21 highs provides an additional bearish non-confirmation. Over the past ten years, the buy/sell action triggered by the SMA crosses has a success rate of 75% - 100%. Winning trades outperformed losing trades by a ratio of at least 3:1. In investing, those are not the kind of odds you want to bet against. In other words, it's time to face reality and abandon denial. Leading up to the April highs, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted a pinnacle of denial which was reflected by investors' outright enthusiasm about stocks. At a time when approximately 8 of 10 investment advisors and newsletter writers were bullish on stocks, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted: 'The message conveyed by the composite bullishness is unmistakably bearish. The pieces are in place for a major decline.' Since April 26, the major indexes dropped as much as 17%. Despite the recent rally, this seems to have been only the first installment of a significant decline. This decline is now in progress. In fact, the August issue of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter explains the one chart-pattern that explains why the next leg down will be strong and powerful. A British Historian noted decades ago that a wise person does at once what a fool does at last. Both do the same thing; only at different times. Will you get out of the markets way in time, or too late?
Here’s a new piece of the dismally murky puzzle which belies
a previous raison d’etre for rally: Greek
Bonds Slump As Austerity Backfires, Country Enters “Death Spiral”, And The
Violent End Game Approaches . Previously, Walmart same store sales were actually down (overseas
results were up), and, think about it. Isn’t Walmart, as essentially an
american based sales agent of china products a ‘contrarian indicator’ for the
the u.s.; that is , hasn’t Walmart’s rise coincided with american main street’s
demise. Similarly, fraudulent wall street high frequency churn and earn
programmed trade scams among many other
frauds as yet unprosecuted has heralded the death knell for american
business and the economy, generally. Old news at best and, that ‘not bad as expected, better than expected dog
don’t hunt no more’! ‘YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]:
… Retailers were also strong. As a group retailers climbed 1.8%. Discount
retail giant and Dow component Wal-Mart (WMT 51.02, +0.61) was
a solid performer on the back of in-line earnings and an improved
forecast. Home improvement retailer and
fellow Dow component Home Depot (HD 28.31, +0.93) had a more positive influence over
retailers. It posted better-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter, but
issued a rather mixed forecast. A smaller-than-expected increase in housing
starts during July didn't do anything to derail the stock this session. Housing
starts for July increased 1.7% month-over-month to an annualized rate of
546,000 units, which is less than the rate of 555,000 units that had been
widely anticipated. Building permits for July fell 3.1% month-over-month to an
annualized rate of 565,000, which is below the rate of 573,000 that had been
expected…’ But, just a push of the computer programmed trade button and off we go,
reality / valuation / economics be damned. In real security analysis (very
simplified / summarized), as opposed to the continued frauds on wall street,
one must begin with the largest and most significant aggregate (a simple word
picture / analogy: ‘rising tide lifts all boats’). If you get this right, the
probabilities in your favor are substantially enhanced. From there, you want
leading industries, and leading companies within said leading industries
(again, larger aggregates then picks, to enhance probabilities, not guarantees,
in your favor). Your time frame, 1-3-5 yrs tops for projections, (including
income statement/EPS, balance sheet, and applying an appropriate P/E – a
detailed, multi-faceted approach beyond what could be described in this
summary); and, that’s all they are, projections. Beyond that time frame, your
guess. On fraudulent wall street, every day, though already discounted in large
part (6-8 mos, approx.), the market spins, churns, and with lightning fast
computerized high-frequency trade programs commissions in huge volumes like no
other time in financial history when real valuation meant something, with no
net economic value added, but very lucrative to the frauds on wall street,
which ultimately is a net detriment to the economy / the nation /and other
industries as we’ve seen and as described elsewhere on this site and in these
posts http://albertpeia.com
. Preposterously, they even sometimes refer to seasonal factors as if hearing them
for the first time and ‘explaining’ an up move (almost invariably already
discounted). Today, they shrugged off the deepening economic reality despite
the election year frothing / manipulations. This
is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression.
The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market.
This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes
with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and
sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato
scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and
otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et
als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. ].
Are You Ready
For How Bad It Will Get? Graham
Summers | ‘There
are numerous components in the latest GDP number that are extremely suspect. The vast majority of investors are going to
be taken to the cleaners.
I realize this view is far from the consensus. Even those who are in the bear
camp aver that the Stimulus did in fact bring us out of recession at least
temporarily.
However,
I would strongly contend that the recovery was in fact non-existent for the
following reasons:
1. The Government data used to validate
the recovery (GPD, unemployment, etc) is clearly massaged if not bordering on
outright propaganda
2. We are in fact in a depression and
the “recovery” was simply a bounce in economic activity taking place within the
context of a larger economy contraction
Regarding #1, every Government data
point used in promoting the “recovery” had some degree of fudging in it. Let’s
consider GDP for instance.
There are numerous devious tactics used
to overstate GDP growth, however, the most obvious gimmick the BLS uses is
overstating GPD growth in the present and then revising it lower in the
subsequent quarters.’
Kaufman on High Frequency Trading ‘Sen. Ted Kaufman (D., Del.) has been banging the drum on the need for
regulatory changes to high frequency trading for a while. His latest
thoughts on the matter take the form of a letter to SEC Chairwoman Mary Schapiro
urging — among other things — major high-frequency trading firms be
required to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Dow Jones Newswires’ Jacob Bunge reports:
In addition, regulators should consider
requiring chief executives of computer-driven trading firms to certify under oath
that their algorithms do not manipulate prices in U.S. stock and derivative
markets, according to Kaufman.
“In the aftermath of the flash crash,
this is an historic moment for the Commission, a moment when it must fulfill
its obligation as steward for those investors who lack the clout of Wall
Street’s largest financial players,” the senator wrote in an Aug. 5 letter to
Mary Schapiro, chairman of the SEC.
Kaufman’s letter to Schapiro came as
the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission prepare to issue in early
September a final report on the market events of May 6, when the Dow Jones
Industrial Average dropped by nearly 1,000 points before swiftly recovering.
As we’ve noted before, at the heart of
events of the May 6 “Flash Crash,” was a decision by certain market makers to
cut back trading, and in some cases pull out of the market all together. Since
so much of the market’s liquidity comes from high-frequency trading or
statistical-arbitrage firms, some say there should be additional obligations to
ensure that these firms don’t pull out of the market.
Last week, New York Sen. Chuck Schumer offered
some of his suggestions on how to sort out the obligations of market
makers, whom he seemed somewhat sympathetic toward. He noted that since some of
the obligations he proposed were “burdensome and making markets is voluntary …
the Commission should consider appropriate incentives for high frequency
traders to become market makers.”
Kaufman seems to be taking a tougher
line with respect to market makers. In his letter to the SEC he writes:
The SEC should impose some liquidity
provision obligations on high frequency traders. Enhanced requirements should
be crafted to encourage high frequency traders to post two-sided markets and
supply investors with a consistent source of deep liquidity. In addition to
affirmative liquidity provision obligations, the Commission should consider
instituting negative obligations as well.
We have a hunch on which approach the
industry is likely to prefer. At any rate, the Kaufman letter is worth a read
for market wonks. Check it out.’
Deceptive
Economic Statistics: While the economists lied the US economy died Paul Craig Roberts | The bought-and-paid-for-economists got all the
media forums for a decade. While they lied, the US economy died.
Manufacturing,
housing sectors exhibit diverging fortunes (Washington Post) I’d say understatement but I truly don’t
know what this headline means juxtaposed with ‘fortunes’.
Google
Yanks “Kill The Web” Article That Warned Of Internet Takeover Having at
first appeared as normal, our earlier article about Google’s plan to kill the
web has been completely de-listed from Google News. This is completely
unprecedented and underscores how keen Google is to prevent people from finding
out that it is a CIA-NSA front that is preparing to completely end the Internet
as we know it with the Verizon net-neutrality killing deal.
Drudgereport:
NEW LOW
FOR O: GALLUP DAILY SHOWS OBAMA 41% APPROVE, 52% DIS...
NEW
JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE TO 500,000...
Highest
level in 9 months...
CBO:
DEFICIT 9.1% OF GDP... DEVELOPING...
Homeowners
Expect Home Values to Fall More...
Death of
the 'McMansion': Era of Huge Homes Is Over...
Bankruptcies
Reach Nearly 5-Year High...
REPORT:
China targets U.S. troops with arms buildup...
Military
power growing...
Pentagon
warning...
Risky
game on the high seas...
How
long can America fend off the dragon?
'Without
a revolution, Americans are history'...
From Good to Mediocre ‘Through last Friday, 2,127 US companies had reported quarterly
numbers this earnings season. What started out as a strong earnings season is
going out with a whimper (earnings season ends tomorrow with Wal-Mart's report)…’
High Probability for Lower Market Prices Ahead ‘…Economic numbers being what they are (very poor), we
should expect a downward revision of second quarter GDP to 1.5% from the
originally disappointing number of 2.4%. As more data is being released it is
apparent that we are witnessing even further deterioration here in the third
quarter…We may have reached a tipping point where many are tired of others
being the benefactors of taxpayer money …’
Gold Providing Safety During Market Downturn ‘ … The death cross occurs when the 50
day moving average crosses the 200 day moving average on the downside. These
patterns, when combined with other technical indicators can predict major
market downturns…THE ODDS OF A LONG TERM DOWNTREND ARE
BECOMING HIGHLY PROBABLE. THESE SIGNALS COULD POSSIBLY INDICATE THE START OF A
TWELVE TO EIGHTEEN MONTH DOWN CYCLE. Gold, on the other hand, has shown
great relative strength despite the general markets correcting and negative
sentiment about the economy from Washington…’
Will
Quantitative Easing By The Federal Reserve Unleash Economic Hell? The Economic Collapse | Most of the folks populating Congress are so
incompetent that they should not even be hired to mop the floors of a Dairy
Queen.
China
surpasses Japan as world's No. 2 economy
(Washington Post) [ As
if we didn’t see that coming! ]
HOW TO BEAR MARKET PROOF YOUR PORFOLIO , On Friday
August 13, 2010, ‘… The 22 trading days following the April 26
market highs erased eight months worth of gains. Bear markets move much quicker
than bull markets.
Rule #1: Better too Early than too Late
When preparing for a bear market (we'll discuss in a
moment why we have been preparing for a bear market), it is prudent to start
early. Anyone who sold their long positions as early as September last year
would be in a better position than the buy-and hold crowd that is still
clinging to their holdings.
Rule #2: Don't Trust Wall Street and the Media
By now, even the mainstream media is sensing that
something might not be quite right with the market's performance. However,
there is still hope that the second half of the year will get a lift from
positive earning results. Before you bet your money on that line of reasoning,
consider the picture the media painted days within the April 2010 market top.
April 19, 2010 'America is back - The remarkable tale of
an economic turnaround' – Newsweek
'Recovery tilting to V-shape as profits prompts growth revision' - Bloomberg
April 25, 2010: 'U.S. stocks cheapest since 1990 on
analyst estimates' – Bloomberg
'Technical Analysts see room to roll' - Wall Street Journal
April 27, 2010 'Greece contagion fears unfounded' -
Reuters
May 3, 2010: 'Manufacturing in U.S. grows at fastest pace
since 2004 as recovery gains traction' - Bloomberg
Over the past two and a half months, the S&P
(NYSEArca: SPY - News) and Dow (NYSEArca: DIA - News) have lost as much as 17%. A 20% loss is
considered the mark of a new bear market. In essence, we are only one bad day
away from the next bear. Of course, throughout the massive bear market rally
from the March 2009 lows, which the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
predicted via the March 2, 2009 Trend Change Alert, the newsletter maintained
that it was only a bear market trap which would fool a majority of investors.
On April 16 it stated that 'Most bulls have no clue why they are bullish except
for the fact that they feel the need to play the momentum game. Sounds like
2000 and 2007 all over again. The message conveyed by the composite bullishness
is unmistakably bearish.'
Rule #3: Don't Underestimate Cash
In a period of falling prices, cash or cash equivalents
like short term Treasuries (NYSEArca: SHY - News) maintain your purchasing power -
long-term Treasuries (NYSEArca: TLT - News) are interest rate sensitive and may move
faster than you think. When stocks fall and you are able to maintain your
purchasing power, you are able to buy stocks at a discount. In essence, cash
offers a positive return in periods of falling prices. Additionally, or
alternatively, investors may choose to buy short or leveraged short ETFs such
as the Short S&P 500 ProShares (NYSEArca: SH - News), UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares
(NYSEArca: TWM - News) UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares
(NYSEArca: SDS - News), Short Financial ProShares (NYSEArca: SEF -News), Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3x Shares
(NYSEArca: FAZ - News) and many more.
Rule #4: Don't Procrastinate
On May 14, the ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter predicted that the S&P (NYSEArca: IVV - News) will fall through the important 1,040
resistance level. Aside from a small cluster of resistances (one being round
number resistance), a break below 1,040 opened the door wide for significantly
lower prices. We mentioned above that we've been preparing for a reemerging
bear market even before the April highs. Why? Simply put, stocks are
overvalued. How can that be? One of the above headlines read that U.S. stocks
are cheapest since 1990, at least according to analyst projections. The key
word is projections. Analysts project operating earnings for the S&P to
clock in at $94.83 in 2011. This is higher than the 2007 peak of $91.47. That's
right, despite record high unemployment, a European (NYSEArca: VGK - News) debt crisis, a 17% U.S. market
correction, and all the other problems economists expect corporate profits will
exceed their 2007 all-time highs. Does that sound reasonable to you? Keep in
mind that projected earnings are just that - projected. They can and will
change. In fact, analysts have a reputation of following the trend. In April
2008, analysts predicted earnings of $113. After cutting its forecast to $53,
Goldman Sachs cut its earnings forecast to $40 in March 2009. As we know today,
stocks rallied, and actual 2009 earnings came in at $56.87. The list goes on,
but the simple message is that analysts tend to be overly optimistic before the
fall and overly pessimistic before a rally. Right now they are overly
optimistic. The conclusion is easy.
Rule #5: Know who to Trust
Even when basing the current P/E ratio on overly
optimistic estimates, it is still far away from the P/E ratios seen at historic
market bottoms. The same holds true for dividend yields. A look at various
valuation measures shows that the market is overvalued by much more than just
10 or 20%. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter provides a detailed analysis of four
valuation metrics with a near spotless track record of historic
accuracy…’
No Exit, Stage Left or Right
Peter shiff ‘… Those who fear a double dip
recession are justified in their concerns, but they are also missing the big
picture. The 2008 recession never ended. It was merely interrupted by trillions
of dollars of stimulus that purchased GDP “growth” with borrowed
money. But as the bills come due, GDP should now contract … After decades
of abuse, it’s time for the Fed to take make a dramatic exit, because the US
economy can’t take it anymore.’
Capital Controls: The Final
Phase in the Great Looting of America Eric Blair | Capital controls are the
next big event in the government-banking-oligarchy’s great looting of America.
Fed Leads America “To The Brink
Of Collapse” When even the New York Times and CNN are admitting that the
United States faces not only a double-dip recession but potentially a new great
depression, any alarm bells that have not been rung should now be sounding loudly.
Bailouts Went To Foreign Banks:
Congressional Report Confirms What We Already Knew A Congressional Oversight
Panel issued today highlights the fact that large portions of the Treasury’s
$700 billion bailout fund have gone straight into the coffers of foreign banks,
a fact that we knew months ago, but is only now being officially recognised.
Marc Faber: Protect Your
Property with High Voltage Fences, Barbed Wire, Booby Traps, Military Weapons
and Dobermans Investment guru and publisher of The Gloom, Boom and Doom
report, Marc Faber, regularly discusses investment strategies for protecting
and building wealth during times of economic distress.
Warnings:
Social Security at risk
(Washington Post) [ Not this again! It bears repeating, that was always
a bad idea and there was a plethora of reasons set forth on my site as to why
the social security privatization plan being shilled by moron war criminal
dumbya bush on behalf of the wall street frauds was an exceedingly bad idea.
Indeed, as defacto insolvent as america / the social security system is, the
nation and system would have been wiped out by privatization debacle. Talk
about too big to, but still failed. It was a bad idea then, and though
accusations may fly as to fear mongering, the reality of the venality attendant
to such a preposterous course on behalf of the wall street frauds requires
vigilance, scrutiny, and discourse concerning even the remote possibility of
such a fool-hearty betrayal of the citizenry of the nation. As such, as off the
mark as wobama has almost invariably been, he’s on the mark on this. ]ANALYSIS | Obama says GOP wants to privatize program, but
liberals see a different threat.
Foreclosures
surge 9 percent in July (Washington
Post) Those glass-half-full frauds on wall street along with the administration
will be cheering this unequivocally bad news with a dubious retort as ‘used
home sales will rise’ … riiiight! Anything you say …
Stocks
dip for third straight day (Washington
Post) [Investor fears? How ‘bout reality. Even an essentially non-business site
as Drudge has the pulse of this pervasive realization that ‘those dogs of happy
days are here again don’t hunt no more’. Check the heads: DRUDGEREPORT: America Is
'Bankrupt Mickey Mouse Economy'...
WIRE:
USA 'Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It'...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT HITS RECORD HIGH
JOBLESS
CLAIMS JUMP TO HIGHEST SINCE FEB...
California
can't pay bills -- may use IOUs for August payments...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
Homes
lost to foreclosure up 6% from last year...
Grim
Voter Mood Turns Grimmer...
and Economists
Herald New Great Depression The world is
currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression,
according to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others
now forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.
Peter Schiff: “We’re in the
Early Stages of a Depression” The Motley Fool | Four years and the worst
recession since the Great Depression later, Schiff stands alone again with a
bleaker diagnosis for the economy: an inflationary depression. My take: This is a global
depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up
move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has
been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with
great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell
into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam /
fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will
not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are
criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed
Pearlstein: The
FCC and the bandwidth wars (Washington
Post) [The internet has been among the few areas of growth and american
prominence, at least at this point in time. Clearly, as with the throng that
heralded in NAFTA, the self-interested voices of ie., google, verizon, etc.,
are similarly anathema to the greater good (as was NAFTA). Berners-Lee spoke
against such parochialism in no uncertain terms, much as did Ross Perot on
NAFTA and history has proven Perot correct as is so of the mind numbing
approaches of google, verizon, etc.] Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse (infowars.com) [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the
internet along with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously
opposed same and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and
verizon as mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc.,
operatives at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government
hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went public today with their “policy
framework” — better known as the pact to end the Internet as we know it.
AP Business
Highlights ‘Jobs picture dims as
unemployment claims rise WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy is looking bleaker
as new applications for jobless benefits rose last week to the highest level in
almost six months. It's a sign that hiring remains weak and employers may be
going back to cutting their staffs. Analysts say the increase suggests
companies won't be adding enough workers in August to lower the 9.5 percent
unemployment rate. First-time claims for jobless benefits edged up by 2,000 to
a seasonally adjusted 484,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. That's the
highest total since February. Analysts had expected claims to fall…’
Bearish Sentiment Falls to 14-Week Low [Talk about contrarian indicators!] AAII – ‘Bullish sentiment rose
9.4 percentage points to 39.8% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Despite the
size of the increase, the proportion of individual investors expecting stock
prices to rise over the next six months is only at a two-week high. The
historical average is 39%. Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices
will stay essentially flat over the next six months, fell 1.3 percentage points
to 30.1%. The historical average is 31%. Bearish sentiment, expectations that
stock prices will fall, dropped 8.1 percentage points to 30.1%. This is a
14-week low. The historical average is 30%. The survey period, Thursday through
Wednesday, needs to be taken into consideration when looking at these results.
Stock prices were essentially flat through most of this week's survey period
(with the obvious exception of yesterday), giving some investors hope that a
short-term bottom had been established. Though there were big changes in
bullish and bearish sentiment, both optimism and pessimism are close to their
historical averages. As a result, I would argue that individual investors'
confidence in the market remains fragile…’
U.S.
trade deficit startles markets (Washington Post) [ Unexpectedly? I don’t
think so! And, I have my site, other references / links and posts to prove it;
and, what’s more, I’m not alone. After all, what are NAFTAs for anyway.
However, I also must candidly admit I don’t frequent the mainstream blather /
propaganda that includes the ‘money-honeys’ (when the messenger’s more
important than the message, problems and distortions are bound to follow) and
their ilk, etc.. NBR’s
about it and even they have their pressures (I don’t consider the Washington
Post mainstream in the pejorative sense of the word, with a rich journalistic
history to back that up, all things considered) ]. Unexpectedly bad news from
three continents reinforces fears that global recovery is faltering.
Obama signs $26 billion jobs
bill (WP) [I feel compelled to
comment here that even using capital hill math one would be hard-pressed to
justify $26 billion taxpayer / treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save
300,000 state / local government jobs! After all, the nation is defacto
bankrupt! I think the former Soviet Union would have done the same.]
Fed action signals new activism (Washington
Post) [ Riiiiight! The activist fed! That’s all we need. As if we needed more
of what brought us to this point! Certainly the fed’s role in the continuing
and current financial crisis / debacle cannot be ignored or disputed. Nothing
like a hegelian methodology to create
the very problems for which they are called upon to offer solutions, increasing
their sense of importance, and concentrating power thereby. (Think about it. It
is really rather quite absurd that each meeting time the financial markets hold
their bated breath for these incompetent boobs). Then there’s the cover-up with
an opportunity for enrichment of some, usually the tight-lipped yes-men then
ever after and forever bonded in what becomes tantamount to an almost fraternal
link by ‘virtue’ of the crime thereby. No, I’m not saying their initial
missteps were necessarily badly intended, but the manipulations thereafter to
obfuscate their incompetence (senile greenspun, no-recession-helicopter-ben,
etc.) comes at a great price and is nothing less than tantamount to or just
outright crime. I’d abolish the fed without hesitation or compunction. After
all, at this point of decline and defacto bankruptcy of the nation you
certainly can’t point to success nor argue their indispensability. Then there’s
also the missing trillions, over-printing of fiat currency, and all that sub
rosa activity with the worthless fraudulent toxic paper which I believe is
being supplanted with ultimately hard currency to the great benefit of the
frauds and great detriment to the nation.]
ACCORDING TO TECHNICAL INDICATORS, MELTDOWN IS
POSSIBLE A
SOLID TRACK RECORD An analysis
of the SMA crossover buy/sell signals triggered for the S&P over the past
10 days shows that six of the eight signals (75%) were correct. ..LAGGING
BUT ACCURATE Many dismiss
the 200-day or other SMAs as lagging indicators. Although an indicator may be
lagging it doesn't mean it's incorrect or should be dismissed… Even though a
lagging indicator, the rain does confirm that a storm is coming. A
PRO-ACTIVE APPROACH You'd expect Wall Street and the
financial media to be the financial weather man and warn you of upcoming
storms. Unfortunately, that is not so. Leading up to the April 2010 recovery
highs, Wall Street and the media proclaimed the skies are clear, 'sunny
throughout the year' was their weather forecast. Only after investors got
drenched, did Wall Street recommend pulling out the umbrella. Sure enough, as
soon as the umbrellas came out, stocks switched into rally mode and the sky
cleared up. Unlike Wall Street, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned of
the brewing storm while it was still sunny. On April 16, the newsletter warned
that 'historically, there has rarely been a more pronounced sell signal ...
When consumers spend, they do so with credit cards. Visa and Master Card both
got hit with a death cross. It's just a matter of time until the discretionary
sector follows. WAIT, THERE IS MORE …High copper
prices are reflective of high demand and a humming economy. Lower copper prices
signal trouble ahead. On June 22, an ominous death cross visited copper's
chart. PUTTING THE ODDS IN YOUR FAVOR Investing is
a game of probabilities. While you always want to have the odds in your favor,
you never want to bet against the odds. Right now, the odds are piling up on
the bearish side of the ledger. Even though Wall Street is saying that the sky
has cleared up, 'meteorologists' with a better track record are warning of the
storm ahead. In fact, there is one rare chart formation that strongly suggests
the onset of a 2008-like decline, a development that's certainly supported by
the number of death crosses spanning a variety of markets. The August issue of
the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter includes a detailed short, mid and
long-term forecast, along with the one chart that tells the market's story and
true bearish potential.
Californians’ income falls for
first time since WWII Sacramento
Bee | The personal incomes of
Golden State workers fell by that amount in 2009 compared with the previous
year.
Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the internet along
with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously opposed same
and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and verizon as
mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc., operatives
at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went
public today with their “policy framework” — better known as the pact to end
the Internet as we know it.
DRUDGEREPORT:
America Is
'Bankrupt Mickey Mouse Economy'...
WIRE:
USA 'Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It'...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT HITS
RECORD HIGH
JOBLESS
CLAIMS JUMP TO HIGHEST SINCE FEB...
California
can't pay bills -- may use IOUs for August payments...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
Homes
lost to foreclosure up 6% from last year...
Grim
Voter Mood Turns Grimmer...
Claims
of Afghan civilian deaths spark protest...
Military
sees heavier fighting in fall...
PAPER:
10 reasons why Obama presidency is in meltdown...
GALLUP:
Even the Poor Are Abandoning Obama; Approval Under 50%...
Obama
abolishes White House position dedicated to transparency...
Michelle
Obama popularity falls...
UPDATE:
Suspected serial killer arrested in Atlanta...
Attempting
to flee to israel … to be with kindred spirits ...
MOB
RUSH FOR FED AID DRAWS RIOT POLICE
DOW drops
265...
Feds
rethink policies that encourage home ownership...
Obama: $3
Billion More in Aid for Unemployed...
US
posts widest trade gap in 20 months...
Q2 GDP Growth Could Be Revised To Just 1% After Trade Data...
PUMP:
FED TO BUY MORE DEBT...
DOWNGRADES
OUTLOOK...
US-backed
fighters in Iraq defect to al-Qaida... [Winning hearts and minds …
for Al Qaida … just one too many civilian deaths for no good reason at all ]
Republicans
Suggest Names for 'Second Stimulus' Bill...
'Where
do the bailouts end?' [I feel compelled to comment here that
even capital hill math would be hard-pressed to justify $26 billion taxpayer /
treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save 300,000 state / local
government jobs! After all, the nation is defacto bankrupt! ]
Gerald Celente On the Alex
Jones Show: Double Dip Depression Will Lead Us Into War The white shoe boys are
taking us into the worst depression in history.
Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the internet along
with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously opposed same
and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and verizon as
mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc., operatives
at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went
public today with their “policy framework” — better known as the pact to end
the Internet as we know it.
Economists
Herald New Great Depression The world is
currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression,
according to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others
now forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.
Riiiiight! That ‘no-longer looking’ dynamic that saves the day and the ue rate
at 9.5%. At this rate of progress, and according to their thinking and
manipulations, full employment at an unprecedented 0% unemployment is just around
the corner as everyone stops looking for the jobs no longer here, many of which
were sent overseas and which are not coming back owing to substantial economic
structural / financial shifts.
Jobs Report: Companies Slow to Hire ABC
News - Only about 8 percent of the 8.4 million jobs lost at the
peak of the recession have been recovered, leaving millions of Americans still
looking for work, according to an analysis by ABC News' Business Unit. Video: News Update: US
Unemployment Rate Holds at 9.5%, 71,000 Jobs Added in June SmarTrend News 71K more jobs not enough to dent unemployment rate The Associated Press
When perusing the headlines and the
following, I immediately thought ‘between Iraq and a hard place (Afghanistan
and america’s defacto bankruptcy)’:
Between a Rock and a Hard Place Jerry Slusiewicz ‘Everyone knows that being between a rock
and a hard place is not a good place to be. That is where the market is right
now. We continue to have terrible news in the housing sector. There is no
general economic recovery as of yet. Jobless claims continue to mount, while
net new jobs are not being created in a significant enough number to even
sustain the population growth (approximately 150,000 net new jobs per month
needed). By far the majority of economic reports for May, June, July, and now
August, have been worse than forecast. That includes home starts, home sales,
home-builder confidence, retail sales, auto sales, consumer confidence, durable
goods orders, manufacturing, jobs, etc. Yet the market rallies or barely goes
down on these bad reports. What gives? It seems that bad news is good news
right now…
Stepping Aside Because I Can Always
Buy Back In Leigh Drogen ‘I sold
out of everything this morning, for a few reasons…First, breakouts don’t always
work and momentum stocks have a habit of ending their trends abruptly.
Second, …I can buy back in this afternoon if I change my mind (not likely). I
see more risk to the downside here than I do to the upside. …Third, the jobs
number tomorrow scares me. No, it doesn’t matter what the number is, we all
know it’s going to be bad, what matters is how the market reacts, and I have
the feel it’s not going to be good. Fourth, many of my oscillators are
overbought here.Fifth, and finally, I don’t like the fact that this rally has
primarily taken place on the back of the most beaten down sectors. …It all just
doesn’t pass the smell test for me. I’ve been successful at this not because
I’m always right, but because I know when I’m wrong and I’m willing to change
course or step aside. Right now, I’ll step aside.’
Were Unemployment Claims Really So 'Unexpected'?
WE’RE UNDERESTIMATING THE BEARISH POTENTIAL , August 3, 2010
’… Will Anything Stop the Market? Something Did
… At the same
time, the April numbers were lowered the second time by an additional 24,000
units, while May sales were revised lower by 33,000 units. To summarize, April
and May sales were reduced by 57,000 units. Therefore, June sales were 24%
above May sales. By the way, May sales were the lowest on record…
Temporary
Firehouse Closures Begin In Philadelphia CBS
3 | The
city of Philadelphia has started temporarily closing fire stations in order to
balance its budget.
Warning
Signs Suggest Market Headed for Another Collapse … One can find no shortage of fundamental or
mechanical theories explaining what might form the basis of a future financial
collapse published at Zero Hedge, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Nouriel Roubini or
Karl Denninger. In fact, I buy into a lot of the evidence presented by these
sources, and believe that one gains a better grasp of financial reality
spending 10 minutes with Zero Hedge than spending 2 weeks listening to the
mainstream financial media. It is laughable to compare the vacant drivel coming
out of Dennis Kneale to even one single article published by Tyler Durden or
Ryan Iskander…
1. HEAD &
SHOULDERS ON THE S&P 500, DOW JONES, AND NASDAQ …
2. BULLISH FLAG ON
THE VIX? We can’t have a massive spike in volatility without a coinciding
collapse in the equity markets …
3.
THE DEATH-CROSS ON THE S&P SUGGESTS THE 2009 TO 2010 RALLY MIGHT BE OVER
…
4. THE VOLUMELESS
RALLY & MUTUAL FUND OUTFLOWS
…
5. 1,000 POINT FLASH
CRASHES
…
6. BOND MARKET
DISTRUSTFUL OF THE RALLY
…
7. MARKET LEADERSHIP
IS WEAKENING
[chart] … ‘
Stocks' Late Push: Some
Optimism, Some Pessimism [Late
push … as in a constipated bowel movement … Come on! Another one of those push
the computer programmed trade button and off we go, reality / valuation /
economics be damned. In real security analysis (very simplified / summarized),
as opposed to the continued frauds on wall street, one must begin with the
largest and most significant aggregate (a simple word picture / analogy:
‘rising tide lifts all boats’). If you get this right, the probabilities in
your favor are substantially enhanced. From there, you want leading industries,
and leading companies within said leading industries (again, larger aggregates
then picks, to enhance probabilities, not guarantees, in your favor). Your time
frame, 1-3-5 yrs tops for projections, (including income statement/EPS, balance
sheet, and applying an appropriate P/E – a detailed, multi-faceted approach
beyond what could be described in this summary); and, that’s all they are,
projections. Beyond that time frame, your guess. On fraudulent wall street,
every day, though already discounted in large part (6-8 mos, approx.), the
market spins, churns, and with lightning fast computerized high-frequency trade
programs commissions in huge volumes like no other time in financial history
when real valuation meant something, with no net economic value added, but very
lucrative to the frauds on wall street, which ultimately is a net detriment to
the economy / the nation /and other industries as we’ve seen and as described
elsewhere on this site and in these posts http://albertpeia.com . Preposterously, they
even sometimes refer to seasonal factors as if hearing them for the first time
and ‘explaining’ an up move (almost invariably already discounted). Today, they
shrugged off the deepening economic reality despite the election year frothing
/ manipulations. This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market
in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in
a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national
decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the
wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and
disgorgement imposed. ].
Slowing economic rebound raises
unemployment fears (AP) [Wow! Talk about understatements!]
Marc Faber Questions if Dow
Could Hit 1,000 In the August edition of the ‘The Gloom, Boom
& Doom Report’ Marc Faber questions whether the Dow could hit 1,000 as predicted by Robert Prechter, based
on his interpretation of Elliot Waves, Fibonacci numbers and socioeconomic
trends. Prechter, who has written 13
books on finance (external link), believes
that the stock market is historically overvalued in terms of dividends and
earnings, because of a “great rise in positive social mood.” But the mood
changed in 2000 and the “trend toward negative social mood will lead to an
economic contraction,” according to Prechter. “Small bear markets lead to
recessions, big bear markets lead to depressions. The current bear market will
be the biggest in nearly 300 years, so the depression will be correspondingly
deep,” Prechter said.
Wall
St falls after weak outlooks drag (Reuters) U.S. stocks sagged in volatile
trading on Thursday after weak outlooks from technology companies and downbeat
comments from a Federal Reserve official gave investors little reason to buy.
Fed says some districts report slowing economy (Reuters)
Flaws of the European Stress Test … 'Bank stress test' became the magic phrase. Nothing calms fear
like a stress test that's labeled as rigorous. The stress test raises a few
very obvious questions: 1) Will it work? 2) Why was it needed in addition to a
$1 trillion aid package? 3) Is the stress test just a gimmick to appease investors?
The stress test is conducted by the London-based Committee of European Banking
Supervisors (CEBS). Ironically, the test has ignored the majority of banks'
holdings of sovereign debt. Sovereign debt concerns by the so-called PIGS
countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain) triggered the latest wave of
financial problems. Ignoring sovereign debt in the Euro stress test would be
like ignoring toxic real estate assets in the U.S. 10%
Good - 90% Bad According to a Morgan Stanley survey, European banks hold about 90%
of their Greek government bonds in their banking books and 10% in their trading
books. The bonds in the banking book are generally held until maturity, the
bonds in the trading book are traded more frequently. According to a document
obtained by Bloomberg, the stress test assumes a loss of 23.1% on Greek debt,
14% on Portuguese bonds, 12.3% on Spanish debt, 4.7% on German debt, 10% on
U.K. debt, and 5.9% on French debt. However, the stress test only looks at the
bonds held in banks' trading books, which account for a mere 10% of Greek bond
holdings. Can that be called a stress test? Nouriel Roubini says that 'the
assumptions made about economic growth, about sovereign risk are not realistic
enough.' The fact that only seven banks failed the test with a combined
shortfall of $4.5 billion confirms the lax nature of the test. … The U.S. Bank Stress Test - A Nice Façade A closer look under the hood of
the U.S. bank stress test, however, shows that there's not much substance
behind the facade either. It was determined that the 19 tested U.S. banks need
to increase their balance sheets by $75 billion to meet the conditions of
what's termed the 'worst case scenario.' To a large extent, the $75 billion of
additional capital was financially engineered. Banks didn't have to actually
raise $75 billion. They were able to change the label of some of their assets
on their balance sheets. The government supported this practice via mandatory
convertible preferred shares (detailed analysis in May 2009 issue of the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter) …’
Moody's:
Regional banks on review for downgrade (AP)
Consumer
confidence dims (Reuters)
Job worries drove July U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest since
February, with one in six people expecting lower income in the next six months,
underscoring the precarious state of econo...
Global
steelmakers paint gloomy picture (Reuters)
US
bank failures in 2010 surpass 100
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. bank failures this year have surpassed a bleak
milestone of 100 as regulators shut down banks in Georgia, Florida, South
Carolina, Kansas, Nevada and Minnesota. The six bank seizures announced Friday
bring to 102 the failures so far in 2010. The pace of bank closures this year
is well ahead of that of last year, which saw a total 140 bank shuttered amid
the recession and mounting loan defaults …
On the Disconnect Between the Market and the Economy Michael Shulman:
(No recession helicopter ben) Bernanke Admits Major Policy Failures; Stocks Soar Darryl Montgomery What's wrong with this picture?
In his bi-annual testimony before Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke
admitted that after more than a year and a half of zero interest rates and $3
trillion in federal deficit spending since 2008, the best case
scenario for the U.S. economy is slow growth and high unemployment. The S&P
500 is up 2.5% so far this morning on this 'good' news. Bernanke's congressional testimony included the
following statements (emphasis added by me):
"Most [FOMC] participants viewed uncertainty
about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the
majority saw [at the June Fed meeting] the risks to growth as weighted to
the downside."
"Financial conditions--though much improved
since the depth of the financial crisis--have become less supportive of
economic growth in recent months."
"Many banks continue to have a large volume
of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight.
With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank
loans outstanding have continued to contract."
"After two years of job losses, private payrolls
expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this
year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially.
In all likelihood, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the
nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009."…
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Did Google Block “Barry
Soetoro” Search Term? Screenshots obtained by a Prison Planet reader suggest
that Google may have moved to de-list “Barry Soetoro” as a popular search term
shortly after it rose to the top of the Google Trends charts after yesterday’s
effort by radio talk show host Alex Jones to focus attention on Barack Obama’s
real name.
Feb
26, 2009 ... Bolton, the NEOCON gift that keeps on giving the
Repuglycans zero ... The problem with McCain was this. As a veteran
and a POW he get's high marks. ..... to get some treatment at the closest mental
health facility. ...
thinkprogress.org/2009/02/26/bolton-nukes-chicago/ -
Cached
- Similar
Aug
4, 2009 ... Bolton, like all neocons, doesn't understand that
there is ..... Of course, we all know it was BUSH who caused the problem
in the first place, right? .... they view the world in the light of their own mental
disorder, ...
thinkprogress.org/2009/08/.../bolton-north-korea-journalists/ - Cached
- Similar
Show
more results from thinkprogress.org
Dec
21, 2009 ... Re: Breaking: Neocon John Bolton Names Dick
Cheney "Conservati ... republicanism/conservatism is a mental
illness that is killing America and ... Problem is one side will
shamelessly try and stack the deck in their favor ...
crooksandliars.com › Blogs
› Logan
Murphy's blog - Cached
- Similar
Apr
17, 2007 ... On March 25, John Bolton was interviewed by BBC
Newsnight's Jeremy Paxman (video here). ... I think the real problem
was in not relying more on Iraqis. .... BTW, a mental giant, you are
not. The best thing to happen to ...
www.democrats.com › Blogs
› Bob
Fertik's blog - Cached
Bolton and his neo-con
crazies aren't setting the agenda anymore, ... And I do not mean the mental
condition of Mr Bolton and his fellow neocons. ...
www.lobelog.com/bolton-suggests-nuclear-attack-on-iran/ - Cached
- Similar
May
26, 2009 ... It's a special kind of mental illness. ... Bolton
has been derided as "the neocon's neocon" who "laps up
the hosannas of fellow ...
atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/.../dont-hold-your-breath-ambassador-bolton.html - Cached
Dec
4, 2006 ... Clyburn: E-Vote 'Hacked'; Rawl: 'Systemic Software Problems'
.... Add 'The Fall of the NeoCons: Bye Bye Bolton' to
Del.icio · Add 'The ... The Army's Lack of Mental Health Treatment for
Returning Troops" NEXT STORY » ...
www.bradblog.com/?p=3873 - Cached
30
posts - 4 authors - Last post: 21 hours ago
"Religion
is science for the mental ill" - Myself ... John Bolton
is a Bush neo con,,, obviously broke and needing the money. ...
www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1163684/pg2
New
article on darkpolitricks: Neocon Bolton Renews Call for Israel to
Bomb Iran http: darkpoltweeter (Dark Politricks RT): New article on
darkpolitricks: ...
www.wwnewsflash.com/bolton
· [PDF]
File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat - Quick
View
a sweeping diagnosis, it's clear that mental health has been a problem
within ...... Neocon icon John Bolton, Bush's abrasive former
Ambassador to the UN, ...
www.sf911truth.org/neocons.pdf
Bulls Scatter ... Again ‘At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we wanted to once again
highlight the lack of conviction among investors and advisors in the current
market environment. Following the July rally, bullish sentiment based on the Investors
Intelligence weekly survey jumped to its highest level since May. Then
last week, the S&P 500 dropped more than 3% and the bulls scattered. In
this week's survey, bullish sentiment declined 12% for its largest weekly
decline since the flash crash…’
Know Your Indicators: Hindenburg Omen ‘…Below we outline the five criteria (taken from Zero Hedge) that need to be satisfied in order
for the indicator to be triggered. They are:
Another Round of POMO: Dave's Daily ‘…Thursday we'll get another round of Uncle Sugar's
special blend via more POMO (Permanent Open Market Operations). This private
label brew will go directly to the Primary Dealers (dba: Da Boyz) who will use
it to trade as before. We'll also get more earnings from Staples, Ross Stores
and Dollar Tree, among other retailers. Also on tap is more economic data from
Jobless Claims, Leading Indicators and the Philly Fed. Together, these
will give ammo for bulls and bears to duke things out. Meanwhile, there's
Wednesday to digest. There was no economic data and earnings news featured a
good report from Deere but the news got sold. Retail results highlighted Target
which matched expectations but still propped up retail-related ETFs overall.
Markets were lower early on profit-taking and then were kicked higher midday
perhaps on enthusiasm for POMO Thursday. Late in the day, fatigue set in
similar to Tuesday's late day selloff and we barely eked out a gain. Volume was
still summertime light and breadth was mildly positive. (It's instructive to
note in the Nasdaq, advancers barely beat decliners but volume was superior
indicating heavier trading in bigger names.) …’
More Fuel For a Bigger Decline , On Tuesday
August 17, 2010, 4:18 pm EDT A
French proverb states that a fault denied is committed twice. Denial, as
blissful as it is for the time being, does not serve as protection against the
inevitable.A perfect example of denial is the May 6 flash crash. Neither Wall
Street, the financial media, nor investors wanted to see the danger of such a
meltdown beforehand. After it happened, they were in denial about the cause.
Denial is Bliss
The
simple truth is that the market was ripe for a major correction. A few weeks
before the flash crash, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted the extremely
low CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio and warned: 'It seems that only a minority of
equity positions are equipped with a put safety net. Once prices do fall and
investors do get afraid of incurring losses, the only option is to sell.
Selling, results in more selling. This negative feedback loop usually results
in rapidly falling prices.' As it turns out, there was no clumsy-fingered
trader at fault for the decline that reduced the Dow (DJI: ^DJI) by more than
1,000 points in one day. If it had been a simple error, stocks wouldn't have
fallen to new lows after the flash crash. If it had been a simple error, the
S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) wouldn't still be trading below
the flash crash close.
The Reality of Denial
But,
that's the power of denial. Since the April 26 highs, the S&P has been
moving from lower highs to lower lows. On July 1, the S&P had arrived at
1,011. The ensuing rally lifted the markets by nearly 10%, but failed to push
the S&P and Nasdaq above the July 21 highs. The July 21 highs failed to
move above the May 12 highs. The May 12 highs were significantly short of the
April 26 highs. Despite the obvious downtrend, investors get as excited about
dead end bounces as ever. This is not a bullish omen. In fact, according to the
ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter's technical analysis, the steepest leg of the
decline is still ahead. Before we look at more technical details, let's browse
through some fundamental factors that reflect the current state of denial:
Don't Worry About Bank
Failures
111
banks were added to the FDIC's failed bank list thus far in 2010. At the same
time last year, only 76 banks had been shut down. According to an FDIC press
release, Metro Bank of Dade County had total assets of $442.3 million and total
deposits of $391.3 million. Assets outweigh liabilities by $51 million. That's
good, but apparently not accurate. According to the FDIC's press release,
closing Metro Bank will cost the FDIC $67.6 million. Why? Because an accounting
trick allows banks to artificially inflate their assets. The accounting trick
allowed this small bank to overstate its assets by about 25%. Other banks on
the FDIC list overstated their assets by more than 50%. Imagine the size of the
problem, considering that the four biggest banks (NYSEArca: KBE
- News)
of the country have about $7.5 trillion in combined assets. We should also
point out that none of those losses technically affect earnings, at least not
yet (for a detailed analysis refer to the June issue of the ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter).
Don't Worry About Falling
Real Estate
The
National Association of Home Builders reported that its monthly reading of
builder's sentiment about the housing market sank to 14, the lowest level since
March 2009. Unlike other economic indicators, this index is taken from builders
that have their finger on the pulse of Main Street and is forward looking.
Despite the rally in equities (NYSEArca: VTI
- News)
and real estate (NYSEArca: IYR - News),
homebuilders (NYSEArca: XHB - News)
never really saw light at the end of the tunnel.
Don't Worry About
Foreclosures
According
to RealtyTrac, more than 1 million American households are likely to lose their
homes to foreclosure this year. This is about 10 times as high as during an
average year. 25% of the U.S. household sector has a sub-600 FICO score. Yet,
Fannie Mae is offering financing to first-time buyers who only have a $1,000
down-payment. Nearly $150 billion have been spent to keep the doors of Fannie,
Freddie and company open. Does it make sense to artificially extend the
life of a patient destined to die? In the case of Fannie, politicians seem to
think that lending more money and ultimately creating more toxic assets will
solve the problems. Even a third grader understands the irony of that concept.
Denial is alive and well.
Don't Worry About Bankrupt
States
States
are in trouble. The bigger the state, the bigger the trouble it seems.
California has a $1.8 trillion economy. If CA was a country, its economy would
be the seventh biggest in the world, bigger than Russia. But, CA has no money.
CNN reports that as many as 200,000 state workers in CA could see their pay
scale slashed to minimum wage, if orders from the governor's office are
followed. You don't need to be one of the 200,000 to know that is bad. To go
from state salary to minimum wage is a huge drop.
Don't Worry About Falling
Prices
Look
around and you see a general downtrend develop: U.S. stocks (NYSEArca: IWB
- News),
international stocks (NYSEArca: EFA - News)
and emerging market stocks (NYSEArca: EEM
- News).
The same applies to commodities (NYSEArca: DBC
- News),
real estate prices (NYSEArca: RWR - News)
and consumer goods. The above-mentioned 'don't worries' all contribute to the
deflationary spiral (see image below for a visual). Unemployment remains high
because businesses have no pricing power. This leads to lower income, default
foreclosures, and ultimately even higher unemployment. Even Bernanke knows,
there is no easy fix to a deflationary cycle. Once engrained, it feeds on
itself. [chart]
Don't Worry About Death
Crosses
A death cross is one of the most powerful technical indicators. It occurs when the shorter simple moving average (SMA) crosses below the longer SMA. Over the last few weeks we saw literally dozens of such death crosses. Most notable was the S&P, Dow Jones and Nasdaq experiencing not only a death cross created by the 50 and 200-day SMA, but also courtesy of the 10 and 40-week SMA. Despite the rally from the July lows, the sell signal triggered by the various death crosses remained active. The fact that the Dow Jones was the only major index to rally above the June 21 highs provides an additional bearish non-confirmation. Over the past ten years, the buy/sell action triggered by the SMA crosses has a success rate of 75% - 100%. Winning trades outperformed losing trades by a ratio of at least 3:1. In investing, those are not the kind of odds you want to bet against. In other words, it's time to face reality and abandon denial. Leading up to the April highs, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted a pinnacle of denial which was reflected by investors' outright enthusiasm about stocks. At a time when approximately 8 of 10 investment advisors and newsletter writers were bullish on stocks, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted: 'The message conveyed by the composite bullishness is unmistakably bearish. The pieces are in place for a major decline.' Since April 26, the major indexes dropped as much as 17%. Despite the recent rally, this seems to have been only the first installment of a significant decline. This decline is now in progress. In fact, the August issue of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter explains the one chart-pattern that explains why the next leg down will be strong and powerful. A British Historian noted decades ago that a wise person does at once what a fool does at last. Both do the same thing; only at different times. Will you get out of the markets way in time, or too late?
Still yet another one of those ‘come on!’ days. All, yes
all, the data remains bad even if nothing new added to the bleak picture.
Here’s a new piece of the dismally murky puzzle which belies a previous raison
d’etre for rally: Greek
Bonds Slump As Austerity Backfires, Country Enters “Death Spiral”, And The
Violent End Game Approaches . Previously, Walmart same store sales were actually down (overseas
results were up), and, think about it. Isn’t Walmart, as essentially an
american based sales agent of china products a ‘contrarian indicator’ for the
the u.s.; that is , hasn’t Walmart’s rise coincided with american main street’s
demise. Similarly, fraudulent wall street high frequency churn and earn
programmed trade scams among many other
frauds as yet unprosecuted has heralded the death knell for american
business and the economy, generally. Old news at best and, that ‘not bad as expected, better than expected dog
don’t hunt no more’! ‘YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]:
… Retailers were also strong. As a group retailers climbed 1.8%. Discount
retail giant and Dow component Wal-Mart (WMT 51.02, +0.61) was
a solid performer on the back of in-line earnings and an improved
forecast. Home improvement retailer and
fellow Dow component Home Depot (HD 28.31, +0.93) had a more positive influence over
retailers. It posted better-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter, but
issued a rather mixed forecast. A smaller-than-expected increase in housing
starts during July didn't do anything to derail the stock this session. Housing
starts for July increased 1.7% month-over-month to an annualized rate of
546,000 units, which is less than the rate of 555,000 units that had been
widely anticipated. Building permits for July fell 3.1% month-over-month to an
annualized rate of 565,000, which is below the rate of 573,000 that had been
expected…’ But, just a push of the computer programmed trade button and off we go,
reality / valuation / economics be damned. In real security analysis (very
simplified / summarized), as opposed to the continued frauds on wall street,
one must begin with the largest and most significant aggregate (a simple word
picture / analogy: ‘rising tide lifts all boats’). If you get this right, the
probabilities in your favor are substantially enhanced. From there, you want leading
industries, and leading companies within said leading industries (again, larger
aggregates then picks, to enhance probabilities, not guarantees, in your
favor). Your time frame, 1-3-5 yrs tops for projections, (including income
statement/EPS, balance sheet, and applying an appropriate P/E – a detailed,
multi-faceted approach beyond what could be described in this summary); and,
that’s all they are, projections. Beyond that time frame, your guess. On
fraudulent wall street, every day, though already discounted in large part (6-8
mos, approx.), the market spins, churns, and with lightning fast computerized
high-frequency trade programs commissions in huge volumes like no other time in
financial history when real valuation meant something, with no net economic
value added, but very lucrative to the frauds on wall street, which ultimately
is a net detriment to the economy / the nation /and other industries as we’ve
seen and as described elsewhere on this site and in these posts http://albertpeia.com
. Preposterously, they even sometimes refer to seasonal factors as if hearing
them for the first time and ‘explaining’ an up move (almost invariably already
discounted). Today, they shrugged off the deepening economic reality despite
the election year frothing / manipulations. This
is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression.
The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market.
This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes
with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and
sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato
scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and
otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et
als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. ].
Are You Ready
For How Bad It Will Get? Graham
Summers | ‘There
are numerous components in the latest GDP number that are extremely suspect. The vast majority of investors are going to
be taken to the cleaners.
I realize this view is far from the consensus. Even those who are in the bear
camp aver that the Stimulus did in fact bring us out of recession at least
temporarily.
However,
I would strongly contend that the recovery was in fact non-existent for the following
reasons:
1. The Government data used to validate
the recovery (GPD, unemployment, etc) is clearly massaged if not bordering on
outright propaganda
2. We are in fact in a depression and
the “recovery” was simply a bounce in economic activity taking place within the
context of a larger economy contraction
Regarding #1, every Government data
point used in promoting the “recovery” had some degree of fudging in it. Let’s
consider GDP for instance.
There are numerous devious tactics used
to overstate GDP growth, however, the most obvious gimmick the BLS uses is
overstating GPD growth in the present and then revising it lower in the
subsequent quarters.’
Kaufman on High Frequency Trading ‘Sen. Ted Kaufman (D., Del.) has been banging the drum on the need for
regulatory changes to high frequency trading for a while. His latest
thoughts on the matter take the form of a letter to SEC Chairwoman Mary Schapiro
urging — among other things — major high-frequency trading firms be
required to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Dow Jones Newswires’ Jacob Bunge reports:
In addition, regulators should consider
requiring chief executives of computer-driven trading firms to certify under
oath that their algorithms do not manipulate prices in U.S. stock and
derivative markets, according to Kaufman.
“In the aftermath of the flash crash, this
is an historic moment for the Commission, a moment when it must fulfill its
obligation as steward for those investors who lack the clout of Wall Street’s
largest financial players,” the senator wrote in an Aug. 5 letter to Mary
Schapiro, chairman of the SEC.
Kaufman’s letter to Schapiro came as
the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission prepare to issue in early
September a final report on the market events of May 6, when the Dow Jones
Industrial Average dropped by nearly 1,000 points before swiftly recovering.
As we’ve noted before, at the heart of
events of the May 6 “Flash Crash,” was a decision by certain market makers to
cut back trading, and in some cases pull out of the market all together. Since
so much of the market’s liquidity comes from high-frequency trading or
statistical-arbitrage firms, some say there should be additional obligations to
ensure that these firms don’t pull out of the market.
Last week, New York Sen. Chuck Schumer offered
some of his suggestions on how to sort out the obligations of market
makers, whom he seemed somewhat sympathetic toward. He noted that since some of
the obligations he proposed were “burdensome and making markets is voluntary …
the Commission should consider appropriate incentives for high frequency
traders to become market makers.”
Kaufman seems to be taking a tougher
line with respect to market makers. In his letter to the SEC he writes:
The SEC should impose some liquidity
provision obligations on high frequency traders. Enhanced requirements should
be crafted to encourage high frequency traders to post two-sided markets and
supply investors with a consistent source of deep liquidity. In addition to
affirmative liquidity provision obligations, the Commission should consider
instituting negative obligations as well.
We have a hunch on which approach the
industry is likely to prefer. At any rate, the Kaufman letter is worth a read
for market wonks. Check it out.’
Deceptive
Economic Statistics: While the economists lied the US economy died Paul Craig Roberts | The bought-and-paid-for-economists got all the
media forums for a decade. While they lied, the US economy died.
Manufacturing,
housing sectors exhibit diverging fortunes (Washington Post) I’d say understatement but I truly don’t
know what this headline means juxtaposed with ‘fortunes’.
Drudgereport:
NEW LOW
FOR O: GALLUP DAILY SHOWS OBAMA 41% APPROVE, 52% DIS...
Bankruptcies
Reach Nearly 5-Year High...
REPORT:
China targets U.S. troops with arms buildup...
Military
power growing...
Pentagon
warning...
Risky
game on the high seas...
How
long can America fend off the dragon?
'Without
a revolution, Americans are history'...
From Good to Mediocre ‘Through last Friday, 2,127 US companies had reported quarterly
numbers this earnings season. What started out as a strong earnings season is
going out with a whimper (earnings season ends tomorrow with Wal-Mart's
report)…’
High Probability for Lower Market Prices Ahead ‘…Economic numbers being what they are (very poor), we
should expect a downward revision of second quarter GDP to 1.5% from the
originally disappointing number of 2.4%. As more data is being released it is
apparent that we are witnessing even further deterioration here in the third
quarter…We may have reached a tipping point where many are tired of others
being the benefactors of taxpayer money …’
Gold Providing Safety During Market Downturn ‘ … The death cross occurs when the 50
day moving average crosses the 200 day moving average on the downside. These
patterns, when combined with other technical indicators can predict major
market downturns…THE ODDS OF A LONG TERM DOWNTREND ARE
BECOMING HIGHLY PROBABLE. THESE SIGNALS COULD POSSIBLY INDICATE THE START OF A
TWELVE TO EIGHTEEN MONTH DOWN CYCLE. Gold, on the other hand, has shown
great relative strength despite the general markets correcting and negative
sentiment about the economy from Washington…’
Will
Quantitative Easing By The Federal Reserve Unleash Economic Hell? The Economic Collapse | Most of the folks populating Congress are so
incompetent that they should not even be hired to mop the floors of a Dairy
Queen.
China
surpasses Japan as world's No. 2 economy
(Washington Post) [ As
if we didn’t see that coming! ]
HOW TO BEAR MARKET PROOF YOUR PORFOLIO , On Friday
August 13, 2010, ‘… The 22 trading days following the April 26
market highs erased eight months worth of gains. Bear markets move much quicker
than bull markets.
Rule #1: Better too Early than too Late
When preparing for a bear market (we'll discuss in a
moment why we have been preparing for a bear market), it is prudent to start
early. Anyone who sold their long positions as early as September last year
would be in a better position than the buy-and hold crowd that is still
clinging to their holdings.
Rule #2: Don't Trust Wall Street and the Media
By now, even the mainstream media is sensing that
something might not be quite right with the market's performance. However,
there is still hope that the second half of the year will get a lift from
positive earning results. Before you bet your money on that line of reasoning,
consider the picture the media painted days within the April 2010 market top.
April 19, 2010 'America is back - The remarkable tale of
an economic turnaround' – Newsweek
'Recovery tilting to V-shape as profits prompts growth revision' - Bloomberg
April 25, 2010: 'U.S. stocks cheapest since 1990 on
analyst estimates' – Bloomberg
'Technical Analysts see room to roll' - Wall Street Journal
April 27, 2010 'Greece contagion fears unfounded' -
Reuters
May 3, 2010: 'Manufacturing in U.S. grows at fastest pace
since 2004 as recovery gains traction' - Bloomberg
Over the past two and a half months, the S&P
(NYSEArca: SPY - News) and Dow (NYSEArca: DIA - News) have lost as much as 17%. A 20% loss is
considered the mark of a new bear market. In essence, we are only one bad day
away from the next bear. Of course, throughout the massive bear market rally
from the March 2009 lows, which the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter predicted
via the March 2, 2009 Trend Change Alert, the newsletter maintained that it was
only a bear market trap which would fool a majority of investors. On April 16
it stated that 'Most bulls have no clue why they are bullish except for the
fact that they feel the need to play the momentum game. Sounds like 2000 and
2007 all over again. The message conveyed by the composite bullishness is
unmistakably bearish.'
Rule #3: Don't Underestimate Cash
In a period of falling prices, cash or cash equivalents
like short term Treasuries (NYSEArca: SHY - News) maintain your purchasing power -
long-term Treasuries (NYSEArca: TLT - News) are interest rate sensitive and may move
faster than you think. When stocks fall and you are able to maintain your
purchasing power, you are able to buy stocks at a discount. In essence, cash
offers a positive return in periods of falling prices. Additionally, or
alternatively, investors may choose to buy short or leveraged short ETFs such
as the Short S&P 500 ProShares (NYSEArca: SH - News), UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares
(NYSEArca: TWM - News) UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares
(NYSEArca: SDS - News), Short Financial ProShares (NYSEArca: SEF -News), Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3x Shares
(NYSEArca: FAZ - News) and many more.
Rule #4: Don't Procrastinate
On May 14, the ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter predicted that the S&P (NYSEArca: IVV - News) will fall through the important 1,040
resistance level. Aside from a small cluster of resistances (one being round
number resistance), a break below 1,040 opened the door wide for significantly
lower prices. We mentioned above that we've been preparing for a reemerging
bear market even before the April highs. Why? Simply put, stocks are
overvalued. How can that be? One of the above headlines read that U.S. stocks
are cheapest since 1990, at least according to analyst projections. The key
word is projections. Analysts project operating earnings for the S&P to
clock in at $94.83 in 2011. This is higher than the 2007 peak of $91.47. That's
right, despite record high unemployment, a European (NYSEArca: VGK - News) debt crisis, a 17% U.S. market correction,
and all the other problems economists expect corporate profits will exceed
their 2007 all-time highs. Does that sound reasonable to you? Keep in mind that
projected earnings are just that - projected. They can and will change. In
fact, analysts have a reputation of following the trend. In April 2008,
analysts predicted earnings of $113. After cutting its forecast to $53, Goldman
Sachs cut its earnings forecast to $40 in March 2009. As we know today, stocks
rallied, and actual 2009 earnings came in at $56.87. The list goes on, but the
simple message is that analysts tend to be overly optimistic before the fall
and overly pessimistic before a rally. Right now they are overly optimistic.
The conclusion is easy.
Rule #5: Know who to Trust
Even when basing the current P/E ratio on overly
optimistic estimates, it is still far away from the P/E ratios seen at historic
market bottoms. The same holds true for dividend yields. A look at various
valuation measures shows that the market is overvalued by much more than just
10 or 20%. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter provides a detailed analysis of four
valuation metrics with a near spotless track record of historic
accuracy…’
No Exit, Stage Left or Right
Peter shiff ‘… Those who fear a double dip
recession are justified in their concerns, but they are also missing the big
picture. The 2008 recession never ended. It was merely interrupted by
trillions of dollars of stimulus that purchased GDP “growth” with borrowed
money. But as the bills come due, GDP should now contract … After decades
of abuse, it’s time for the Fed to take make a dramatic exit, because the US
economy can’t take it anymore.’
Capital Controls: The Final
Phase in the Great Looting of America Eric Blair | Capital controls are the
next big event in the government-banking-oligarchy’s great looting of America.
Fed Leads America “To The Brink
Of Collapse” When even the New York Times and CNN are admitting that the
United States faces not only a double-dip recession but potentially a new great
depression, any alarm bells that have not been rung should now be sounding
loudly.
Bailouts Went To Foreign Banks:
Congressional Report Confirms What We Already Knew A Congressional Oversight
Panel issued today highlights the fact that large portions of the Treasury’s
$700 billion bailout fund have gone straight into the coffers of foreign banks,
a fact that we knew months ago, but is only now being officially recognised.
Marc Faber: Protect Your
Property with High Voltage Fences, Barbed Wire, Booby Traps, Military Weapons
and Dobermans Investment guru and publisher of The Gloom, Boom and Doom
report, Marc Faber, regularly discusses investment strategies for protecting
and building wealth during times of economic distress.
Warnings:
Social Security at risk
(Washington Post) [ Not this again! It bears repeating, that was always
a bad idea and there was a plethora of reasons set forth on my site as to why
the social security privatization plan being shilled by moron war criminal
dumbya bush on behalf of the wall street frauds was an exceedingly bad idea.
Indeed, as defacto insolvent as america / the social security system is, the
nation and system would have been wiped out by privatization debacle. Talk
about too big to, but still failed. It was a bad idea then, and though
accusations may fly as to fear mongering, the reality of the venality attendant
to such a preposterous course on behalf of the wall street frauds requires
vigilance, scrutiny, and discourse concerning even the remote possibility of
such a fool-hearty betrayal of the citizenry of the nation. As such, as off the
mark as wobama has almost invariably been, he’s on the mark on this. ]ANALYSIS | Obama says GOP wants to privatize program, but
liberals see a different threat.
Foreclosures
surge 9 percent in July (Washington
Post) Those glass-half-full frauds on wall street along with the administration
will be cheering this unequivocally bad news with a dubious retort as ‘used
home sales will rise’ … riiiight! Anything you say …
Stocks
dip for third straight day (Washington
Post) [Investor fears? How ‘bout reality. Even an essentially non-business site
as Drudge has the pulse of this pervasive realization that ‘those dogs of happy
days are here again don’t hunt no more’. Check the heads: DRUDGEREPORT: America Is
'Bankrupt Mickey Mouse Economy'...
WIRE:
USA 'Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It'...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT HITS RECORD HIGH
JOBLESS
CLAIMS JUMP TO HIGHEST SINCE FEB...
California
can't pay bills -- may use IOUs for August payments...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
Homes
lost to foreclosure up 6% from last year...
Grim
Voter Mood Turns Grimmer...
and Economists
Herald New Great Depression The world is
currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression,
according to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others
now forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.
Peter Schiff: “We’re in the
Early Stages of a Depression” The Motley Fool | Four years and the worst
recession since the Great Depression later, Schiff stands alone again with a
bleaker diagnosis for the economy: an inflationary depression. My take: This is a global
depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up
move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has
been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with
great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell
into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam /
fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will
not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are
criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed
Pearlstein: The
FCC and the bandwidth wars (Washington
Post) [The internet has been among the few areas of growth and american
prominence, at least at this point in time. Clearly, as with the throng that
heralded in NAFTA, the self-interested voices of ie., google, verizon, etc.,
are similarly anathema to the greater good (as was NAFTA). Berners-Lee spoke
against such parochialism in no uncertain terms, much as did Ross Perot on
NAFTA and history has proven Perot correct as is so of the mind numbing
approaches of google, verizon, etc.] Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse (infowars.com) [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the
internet along with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously
opposed same and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and
verizon as mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc.,
operatives at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government
hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went public today with their “policy
framework” — better known as the pact to end the Internet as we know it.
AP Business
Highlights ‘Jobs picture dims as
unemployment claims rise WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy is looking bleaker
as new applications for jobless benefits rose last week to the highest level in
almost six months. It's a sign that hiring remains weak and employers may be
going back to cutting their staffs. Analysts say the increase suggests
companies won't be adding enough workers in August to lower the 9.5 percent
unemployment rate. First-time claims for jobless benefits edged up by 2,000 to
a seasonally adjusted 484,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. That's the
highest total since February. Analysts had expected claims to fall…’
Bearish Sentiment Falls to 14-Week Low [Talk about contrarian indicators!] AAII – ‘Bullish sentiment rose
9.4 percentage points to 39.8% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Despite the
size of the increase, the proportion of individual investors expecting stock
prices to rise over the next six months is only at a two-week high. The
historical average is 39%. Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices
will stay essentially flat over the next six months, fell 1.3 percentage points
to 30.1%. The historical average is 31%. Bearish sentiment, expectations that
stock prices will fall, dropped 8.1 percentage points to 30.1%. This is a
14-week low. The historical average is 30%. The survey period, Thursday through
Wednesday, needs to be taken into consideration when looking at these results.
Stock prices were essentially flat through most of this week's survey period
(with the obvious exception of yesterday), giving some investors hope that a
short-term bottom had been established. Though there were big changes in
bullish and bearish sentiment, both optimism and pessimism are close to their
historical averages. As a result, I would argue that individual investors'
confidence in the market remains fragile…’
U.S.
trade deficit startles markets (Washington Post) [ Unexpectedly? I don’t
think so! And, I have my site, other references / links and posts to prove it;
and, what’s more, I’m not alone. After all, what are NAFTAs for anyway.
However, I also must candidly admit I don’t frequent the mainstream blather /
propaganda that includes the ‘money-honeys’ (when the messenger’s more
important than the message, problems and distortions are bound to follow) and
their ilk, etc.. NBR’s
about it and even they have their pressures (I don’t consider the Washington
Post mainstream in the pejorative sense of the word, with a rich journalistic
history to back that up, all things considered) ]. Unexpectedly bad news from
three continents reinforces fears that global recovery is faltering.
Obama signs $26 billion jobs
bill (WP) [I feel compelled to
comment here that even using capital hill math one would be hard-pressed to
justify $26 billion taxpayer / treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save
300,000 state / local government jobs! After all, the nation is defacto
bankrupt! I think the former Soviet Union would have done the same.]
Fed action signals new activism (Washington
Post) [ Riiiiight! The activist fed! That’s all we need. As if we needed more
of what brought us to this point! Certainly the fed’s role in the continuing
and current financial crisis / debacle cannot be ignored or disputed. Nothing
like a hegelian methodology to create
the very problems for which they are called upon to offer solutions, increasing
their sense of importance, and concentrating power thereby. (Think about it. It
is really rather quite absurd that each meeting time the financial markets hold
their bated breath for these incompetent boobs). Then there’s the cover-up with
an opportunity for enrichment of some, usually the tight-lipped yes-men then
ever after and forever bonded in what becomes tantamount to an almost fraternal
link by ‘virtue’ of the crime thereby. No, I’m not saying their initial missteps
were necessarily badly intended, but the manipulations thereafter to obfuscate
their incompetence (senile greenspun, no-recession-helicopter-ben, etc.) comes
at a great price and is nothing less than tantamount to or just outright crime.
I’d abolish the fed without hesitation or compunction. After all, at this point
of decline and defacto bankruptcy of the nation you certainly can’t point to
success nor argue their indispensability. Then there’s also the missing
trillions, over-printing of fiat currency, and all that sub rosa activity with
the worthless fraudulent toxic paper which I believe is being supplanted with
ultimately hard currency to the great benefit of the frauds and great detriment
to the nation.]
ACCORDING TO TECHNICAL INDICATORS, MELTDOWN IS
POSSIBLE A
SOLID TRACK RECORD An analysis
of the SMA crossover buy/sell signals triggered for the S&P over the past
10 days shows that six of the eight signals (75%) were correct. ..LAGGING
BUT ACCURATE Many dismiss
the 200-day or other SMAs as lagging indicators. Although an indicator may be
lagging it doesn't mean it's incorrect or should be dismissed… Even though a
lagging indicator, the rain does confirm that a storm is coming. A
PRO-ACTIVE APPROACH You'd expect Wall Street and the
financial media to be the financial weather man and warn you of upcoming
storms. Unfortunately, that is not so. Leading up to the April 2010 recovery
highs, Wall Street and the media proclaimed the skies are clear, 'sunny
throughout the year' was their weather forecast. Only after investors got
drenched, did Wall Street recommend pulling out the umbrella. Sure enough, as
soon as the umbrellas came out, stocks switched into rally mode and the sky
cleared up. Unlike Wall Street, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned of
the brewing storm while it was still sunny. On April 16, the newsletter warned
that 'historically, there has rarely been a more pronounced sell signal ...
When consumers spend, they do so with credit cards. Visa and Master Card both
got hit with a death cross. It's just a matter of time until the discretionary
sector follows. WAIT, THERE IS MORE …High copper
prices are reflective of high demand and a humming economy. Lower copper prices
signal trouble ahead. On June 22, an ominous death cross visited copper's chart.
PUTTING THE ODDS IN YOUR FAVOR Investing is
a game of probabilities. While you always want to have the odds in your favor,
you never want to bet against the odds. Right now, the odds are piling up on
the bearish side of the ledger. Even though Wall Street is saying that the sky
has cleared up, 'meteorologists' with a better track record are warning of the
storm ahead. In fact, there is one rare chart formation that strongly suggests
the onset of a 2008-like decline, a development that's certainly supported by
the number of death crosses spanning a variety of markets. The August issue of
the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter includes a detailed short, mid and
long-term forecast, along with the one chart that tells the market's story and
true bearish potential.
Californians’ income falls for
first time since WWII Sacramento
Bee | The personal incomes of
Golden State workers fell by that amount in 2009 compared with the previous
year.
Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the internet along
with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously opposed same
and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and verizon as
mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc., operatives
at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went
public today with their “policy framework” — better known as the pact to end
the Internet as we know it.
DRUDGEREPORT:
America Is
'Bankrupt Mickey Mouse Economy'...
WIRE:
USA 'Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It'...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT HITS
RECORD HIGH
JOBLESS
CLAIMS JUMP TO HIGHEST SINCE FEB...
California
can't pay bills -- may use IOUs for August payments...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
Homes
lost to foreclosure up 6% from last year...
Grim
Voter Mood Turns Grimmer...
Claims
of Afghan civilian deaths spark protest...
Military
sees heavier fighting in fall...
PAPER:
10 reasons why Obama presidency is in meltdown...
GALLUP:
Even the Poor Are Abandoning Obama; Approval Under 50%...
Obama
abolishes White House position dedicated to transparency...
Michelle
Obama popularity falls...
UPDATE:
Suspected serial killer arrested in Atlanta...
Attempting
to flee to israel … to be with kindred spirits ...
MOB
RUSH FOR FED AID DRAWS RIOT POLICE
DOW drops
265...
Feds
rethink policies that encourage home ownership...
Obama: $3
Billion More in Aid for Unemployed...
US
posts widest trade gap in 20 months...
Q2 GDP Growth Could Be Revised To Just 1% After Trade Data...
PUMP:
FED TO BUY MORE DEBT...
DOWNGRADES
OUTLOOK...
US-backed
fighters in Iraq defect to al-Qaida... [Winning hearts and minds …
for Al Qaida … just one too many civilian deaths for no good reason at all ]
Republicans
Suggest Names for 'Second Stimulus' Bill...
'Where
do the bailouts end?' [I feel compelled to comment here that
even capital hill math would be hard-pressed to justify $26 billion taxpayer /
treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save 300,000 state / local
government jobs! After all, the nation is defacto bankrupt! ]
Gerald Celente On the Alex
Jones Show: Double Dip Depression Will Lead Us Into War The white shoe boys are
taking us into the worst depression in history.
Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the internet along
with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously opposed same
and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and verizon as
mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc., operatives
at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went
public today with their “policy framework” — better known as the pact to end
the Internet as we know it.
Economists
Herald New Great Depression The world is
currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression,
according to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others
now forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.
Riiiiight! That ‘no-longer looking’ dynamic that saves the day and the ue rate
at 9.5%. At this rate of progress, and according to their thinking and
manipulations, full employment at an unprecedented 0% unemployment is just
around the corner as everyone stops looking for the jobs no longer here, many
of which were sent overseas and which are not coming back owing to substantial
economic structural / financial shifts.
Jobs Report: Companies Slow to Hire ABC
News - Only about 8 percent of the 8.4 million jobs lost at the
peak of the recession have been recovered, leaving millions of Americans still
looking for work, according to an analysis by ABC News' Business Unit. Video: News Update: US
Unemployment Rate Holds at 9.5%, 71,000 Jobs Added in June SmarTrend News 71K more jobs not enough to dent unemployment rate The Associated Press
When perusing the headlines and the
following, I immediately thought ‘between Iraq and a hard place (Afghanistan
and america’s defacto bankruptcy)’:
Between a Rock and a Hard Place Jerry Slusiewicz ‘Everyone knows that being between a rock
and a hard place is not a good place to be. That is where the market is right
now. We continue to have terrible news in the housing sector. There is no general
economic recovery as of yet. Jobless claims continue to mount, while net new
jobs are not being created in a significant enough number to even sustain the
population growth (approximately 150,000 net new jobs per month needed). By far
the majority of economic reports for May, June, July, and now August, have been
worse than forecast. That includes home starts, home sales, home-builder
confidence, retail sales, auto sales, consumer confidence, durable goods
orders, manufacturing, jobs, etc. Yet the market rallies or barely goes down on
these bad reports. What gives? It seems that bad news is good news right now…
Stepping Aside Because I Can Always
Buy Back In Leigh Drogen ‘I sold
out of everything this morning, for a few reasons…First, breakouts don’t always
work and momentum stocks have a habit of ending their trends abruptly.
Second, …I can buy back in this afternoon if I change my mind (not likely). I
see more risk to the downside here than I do to the upside. …Third, the jobs
number tomorrow scares me. No, it doesn’t matter what the number is, we all
know it’s going to be bad, what matters is how the market reacts, and I have
the feel it’s not going to be good. Fourth, many of my oscillators are
overbought here.Fifth, and finally, I don’t like the fact that this rally has
primarily taken place on the back of the most beaten down sectors. …It all just
doesn’t pass the smell test for me. I’ve been successful at this not because
I’m always right, but because I know when I’m wrong and I’m willing to change
course or step aside. Right now, I’ll step aside.’
Were Unemployment Claims Really So 'Unexpected'?
WE’RE UNDERESTIMATING THE BEARISH POTENTIAL , August 3, 2010
’… Will Anything Stop the Market? Something Did
… At the same
time, the April numbers were lowered the second time by an additional 24,000
units, while May sales were revised lower by 33,000 units. To summarize, April
and May sales were reduced by 57,000 units. Therefore, June sales were 24%
above May sales. By the way, May sales were the lowest on record…
Temporary
Firehouse Closures Begin In Philadelphia CBS
3 | The
city of Philadelphia has started temporarily closing fire stations in order to
balance its budget.
Warning
Signs Suggest Market Headed for Another Collapse … One can find no shortage of fundamental or
mechanical theories explaining what might form the basis of a future financial
collapse published at Zero Hedge, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Nouriel Roubini or
Karl Denninger. In fact, I buy into a lot of the evidence presented by these
sources, and believe that one gains a better grasp of financial reality
spending 10 minutes with Zero Hedge than spending 2 weeks listening to the
mainstream financial media. It is laughable to compare the vacant drivel coming
out of Dennis Kneale to even one single article published by Tyler Durden or
Ryan Iskander…
1. HEAD &
SHOULDERS ON THE S&P 500, DOW JONES, AND NASDAQ …
2. BULLISH FLAG ON THE
VIX? We can’t have a massive spike in volatility without a coinciding collapse
in the equity markets …
3.
THE DEATH-CROSS ON THE S&P SUGGESTS THE 2009 TO 2010 RALLY MIGHT BE OVER
…
4. THE VOLUMELESS
RALLY & MUTUAL FUND OUTFLOWS
…
5. 1,000 POINT FLASH
CRASHES
…
6. BOND MARKET
DISTRUSTFUL OF THE RALLY
…
7. MARKET LEADERSHIP
IS WEAKENING
[chart] … ‘
Stocks' Late Push: Some
Optimism, Some Pessimism [Late
push … as in a constipated bowel movement … Come on! Another one of those push
the computer programmed trade button and off we go, reality / valuation /
economics be damned. In real security analysis (very simplified / summarized),
as opposed to the continued frauds on wall street, one must begin with the
largest and most significant aggregate (a simple word picture / analogy:
‘rising tide lifts all boats’). If you get this right, the probabilities in
your favor are substantially enhanced. From there, you want leading industries,
and leading companies within said leading industries (again, larger aggregates
then picks, to enhance probabilities, not guarantees, in your favor). Your time
frame, 1-3-5 yrs tops for projections, (including income statement/EPS, balance
sheet, and applying an appropriate P/E – a detailed, multi-faceted approach
beyond what could be described in this summary); and, that’s all they are,
projections. Beyond that time frame, your guess. On fraudulent wall street,
every day, though already discounted in large part (6-8 mos, approx.), the
market spins, churns, and with lightning fast computerized high-frequency trade
programs commissions in huge volumes like no other time in financial history
when real valuation meant something, with no net economic value added, but very
lucrative to the frauds on wall street, which ultimately is a net detriment to
the economy / the nation /and other industries as we’ve seen and as described
elsewhere on this site and in these posts http://albertpeia.com . Preposterously, they
even sometimes refer to seasonal factors as if hearing them for the first time
and ‘explaining’ an up move (almost invariably already discounted). Today, they
shrugged off the deepening economic reality despite the election year frothing
/ manipulations. This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market
in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in
a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national
decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the
wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and
disgorgement imposed. ].
Slowing economic rebound raises
unemployment fears (AP) [Wow! Talk about understatements!]
Marc Faber Questions if Dow
Could Hit 1,000 In the August edition of the ‘The Gloom, Boom
& Doom Report’ Marc Faber questions whether the Dow could hit 1,000 as predicted by Robert Prechter, based
on his interpretation of Elliot Waves, Fibonacci numbers and socioeconomic
trends. Prechter, who has written 13
books on finance (external link), believes
that the stock market is historically overvalued in terms of dividends and
earnings, because of a “great rise in positive social mood.” But the mood
changed in 2000 and the “trend toward negative social mood will lead to an
economic contraction,” according to Prechter. “Small bear markets lead to
recessions, big bear markets lead to depressions. The current bear market will
be the biggest in nearly 300 years, so the depression will be correspondingly
deep,” Prechter said.
Wall
St falls after weak outlooks drag (Reuters) U.S. stocks sagged in volatile
trading on Thursday after weak outlooks from technology companies and downbeat
comments from a Federal Reserve official gave investors little reason to buy.
Fed says some districts report slowing economy (Reuters)
Flaws of the European Stress Test … 'Bank stress test' became the magic phrase. Nothing calms fear
like a stress test that's labeled as rigorous. The stress test raises a few
very obvious questions: 1) Will it work? 2) Why was it needed in addition to a
$1 trillion aid package? 3) Is the stress test just a gimmick to appease
investors? The stress test is conducted by the London-based Committee of
European Banking Supervisors (CEBS). Ironically, the test has ignored the
majority of banks' holdings of sovereign debt. Sovereign debt concerns by the
so-called PIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain) triggered the
latest wave of financial problems. Ignoring sovereign debt in the Euro stress
test would be like ignoring toxic real estate assets in the U.S. 10%
Good - 90% Bad According to a Morgan Stanley survey, European banks hold about 90%
of their Greek government bonds in their banking books and 10% in their trading
books. The bonds in the banking book are generally held until maturity, the
bonds in the trading book are traded more frequently. According to a document
obtained by Bloomberg, the stress test assumes a loss of 23.1% on Greek debt,
14% on Portuguese bonds, 12.3% on Spanish debt, 4.7% on German debt, 10% on
U.K. debt, and 5.9% on French debt. However, the stress test only looks at the
bonds held in banks' trading books, which account for a mere 10% of Greek bond
holdings. Can that be called a stress test? Nouriel Roubini says that 'the
assumptions made about economic growth, about sovereign risk are not realistic
enough.' The fact that only seven banks failed the test with a combined
shortfall of $4.5 billion confirms the lax nature of the test. … The U.S. Bank Stress Test - A Nice Façade A closer look under the hood of
the U.S. bank stress test, however, shows that there's not much substance
behind the facade either. It was determined that the 19 tested U.S. banks need
to increase their balance sheets by $75 billion to meet the conditions of
what's termed the 'worst case scenario.' To a large extent, the $75 billion of
additional capital was financially engineered. Banks didn't have to actually
raise $75 billion. They were able to change the label of some of their assets
on their balance sheets. The government supported this practice via mandatory
convertible preferred shares (detailed analysis in May 2009 issue of the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter) …’
Moody's:
Regional banks on review for downgrade (AP)
Consumer
confidence dims (Reuters)
Job worries drove July U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest since
February, with one in six people expecting lower income in the next six months,
underscoring the precarious state of econo...
Global
steelmakers paint gloomy picture (Reuters)
US
bank failures in 2010 surpass 100
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. bank failures this year have surpassed a bleak
milestone of 100 as regulators shut down banks in Georgia, Florida, South
Carolina, Kansas, Nevada and Minnesota. The six bank seizures announced Friday
bring to 102 the failures so far in 2010. The pace of bank closures this year
is well ahead of that of last year, which saw a total 140 bank shuttered amid
the recession and mounting loan defaults …
On the Disconnect Between the Market and the Economy Michael Shulman:
(No recession helicopter ben) Bernanke Admits Major Policy Failures; Stocks Soar Darryl Montgomery What's wrong with this picture?
In his bi-annual testimony before Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke
admitted that after more than a year and a half of zero interest rates and $3
trillion in federal deficit spending since 2008, the best case
scenario for the U.S. economy is slow growth and high unemployment. The S&P
500 is up 2.5% so far this morning on this 'good' news. Bernanke's congressional testimony included the
following statements (emphasis added by me):
"Most [FOMC] participants viewed uncertainty
about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the
majority saw [at the June Fed meeting] the risks to growth as weighted to
the downside."
"Financial conditions--though much improved
since the depth of the financial crisis--have become less supportive of
economic growth in recent months."
"Many banks continue to have a large volume
of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight.
With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank
loans outstanding have continued to contract."
"After two years of job losses, private payrolls
expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this
year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially.
In all likelihood, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the
nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009."…
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Did Google Block “Barry
Soetoro” Search Term? Screenshots obtained by a Prison Planet reader suggest
that Google may have moved to de-list “Barry Soetoro” as a popular search term
shortly after it rose to the top of the Google Trends charts after yesterday’s
effort by radio talk show host Alex Jones to focus attention on Barack Obama’s
real name.
Feb
26, 2009 ... Bolton, the NEOCON gift that keeps on giving the
Repuglycans zero ... The problem with McCain was this. As a veteran
and a POW he get's high marks. ..... to get some treatment at the closest mental
health facility. ...
thinkprogress.org/2009/02/26/bolton-nukes-chicago/ -
Cached
- Similar
Aug
4, 2009 ... Bolton, like all neocons, doesn't understand that
there is ..... Of course, we all know it was BUSH who caused the problem
in the first place, right? .... they view the world in the light of their own mental
disorder, ...
thinkprogress.org/2009/08/.../bolton-north-korea-journalists/ - Cached
- Similar
Show
more results from thinkprogress.org
Dec
21, 2009 ... Re: Breaking: Neocon John Bolton Names Dick
Cheney "Conservati ... republicanism/conservatism is a mental
illness that is killing America and ... Problem is one side will
shamelessly try and stack the deck in their favor ...
crooksandliars.com › Blogs
› Logan
Murphy's blog - Cached
- Similar
Apr
17, 2007 ... On March 25, John Bolton was interviewed by BBC Newsnight's
Jeremy Paxman (video here). ... I think the real problem was in not
relying more on Iraqis. .... BTW, a mental giant, you are not. The
best thing to happen to ...
www.democrats.com › Blogs
› Bob
Fertik's blog - Cached
Bolton and his neo-con
crazies aren't setting the agenda anymore, ... And I do not mean the mental
condition of Mr Bolton and his fellow neocons. ...
www.lobelog.com/bolton-suggests-nuclear-attack-on-iran/ - Cached
- Similar
May
26, 2009 ... It's a special kind of mental illness. ... Bolton
has been derided as "the neocon's neocon" who "laps up
the hosannas of fellow ...
atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/.../dont-hold-your-breath-ambassador-bolton.html - Cached
Dec
4, 2006 ... Clyburn: E-Vote 'Hacked'; Rawl: 'Systemic Software Problems'
.... Add 'The Fall of the NeoCons: Bye Bye Bolton' to
Del.icio · Add 'The ... The Army's Lack of Mental Health Treatment for
Returning Troops" NEXT STORY » ...
www.bradblog.com/?p=3873 - Cached
30
posts - 4 authors - Last post: 21 hours ago
"Religion
is science for the mental ill" - Myself ... John Bolton
is a Bush neo con,,, obviously broke and needing the money. ...
www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1163684/pg2
New
article on darkpolitricks: Neocon Bolton Renews Call for Israel to
Bomb Iran http: darkpoltweeter (Dark Politricks RT): New article on
darkpolitricks: ...
www.wwnewsflash.com/bolton
· [PDF]
File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat - Quick
View
a sweeping diagnosis, it's clear that mental health has been a problem
within ...... Neocon icon John Bolton, Bush's abrasive former
Ambassador to the UN, ...
www.sf911truth.org/neocons.pdf
More Fuel For a Bigger Decline , On Tuesday
August 17, 2010, 4:18 pm EDT A
French proverb states that a fault denied is committed twice. Denial, as
blissful as it is for the time being, does not serve as protection against the
inevitable.A perfect example of denial is the May 6 flash crash. Neither Wall
Street, the financial media, nor investors wanted to see the danger of such a
meltdown beforehand. After it happened, they were in denial about the cause.
Denial is Bliss
The
simple truth is that the market was ripe for a major correction. A few weeks
before the flash crash, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted the extremely
low CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio and warned: 'It seems that only a minority of
equity positions are equipped with a put safety net. Once prices do fall and
investors do get afraid of incurring losses, the only option is to sell.
Selling, results in more selling. This negative feedback loop usually results
in rapidly falling prices.' As it turns out, there was no clumsy-fingered
trader at fault for the decline that reduced the Dow (DJI: ^DJI) by more than
1,000 points in one day. If it had been a simple error, stocks wouldn't have
fallen to new lows after the flash crash. If it had been a simple error, the
S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) wouldn't still be trading below
the flash crash close.
The Reality of Denial
But,
that's the power of denial. Since the April 26 highs, the S&P has been
moving from lower highs to lower lows. On July 1, the S&P had arrived at
1,011. The ensuing rally lifted the markets by nearly 10%, but failed to push
the S&P and Nasdaq above the July 21 highs. The July 21 highs failed to
move above the May 12 highs. The May 12 highs were significantly short of the
April 26 highs. Despite the obvious downtrend, investors get as excited about
dead end bounces as ever. This is not a bullish omen. In fact, according to the
ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter's technical analysis, the steepest leg of the
decline is still ahead. Before we look at more technical details, let's browse
through some fundamental factors that reflect the current state of denial:
Don't Worry About Bank
Failures
111
banks were added to the FDIC's failed bank list thus far in 2010. At the same
time last year, only 76 banks had been shut down. According to an FDIC press
release, Metro Bank of Dade County had total assets of $442.3 million and total
deposits of $391.3 million. Assets outweigh liabilities by $51 million. That's
good, but apparently not accurate. According to the FDIC's press release,
closing Metro Bank will cost the FDIC $67.6 million. Why? Because an accounting
trick allows banks to artificially inflate their assets. The accounting trick
allowed this small bank to overstate its assets by about 25%. Other banks on
the FDIC list overstated their assets by more than 50%. Imagine the size of the
problem, considering that the four biggest banks (NYSEArca: KBE
- News)
of the country have about $7.5 trillion in combined assets. We should also
point out that none of those losses technically affect earnings, at least not
yet (for a detailed analysis refer to the June issue of the ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter).
Don't Worry About Falling
Real Estate
The
National Association of Home Builders reported that its monthly reading of
builder's sentiment about the housing market sank to 14, the lowest level since
March 2009. Unlike other economic indicators, this index is taken from builders
that have their finger on the pulse of Main Street and is forward looking.
Despite the rally in equities (NYSEArca: VTI
- News)
and real estate (NYSEArca: IYR - News),
homebuilders (NYSEArca: XHB - News)
never really saw light at the end of the tunnel.
Don't Worry About
Foreclosures
According
to RealtyTrac, more than 1 million American households are likely to lose their
homes to foreclosure this year. This is about 10 times as high as during an
average year. 25% of the U.S. household sector has a sub-600 FICO score. Yet,
Fannie Mae is offering financing to first-time buyers who only have a $1,000
down-payment. Nearly $150 billion have been spent to keep the doors of Fannie,
Freddie and company open. Does it make sense to artificially extend the
life of a patient destined to die? In the case of Fannie, politicians seem to
think that lending more money and ultimately creating more toxic assets will
solve the problems. Even a third grader understands the irony of that concept.
Denial is alive and well.
Don't Worry About Bankrupt
States
States
are in trouble. The bigger the state, the bigger the trouble it seems.
California has a $1.8 trillion economy. If CA was a country, its economy would
be the seventh biggest in the world, bigger than Russia. But, CA has no money. CNN
reports that as many as 200,000 state workers in CA could see their pay scale
slashed to minimum wage, if orders from the governor's office are followed. You
don't need to be one of the 200,000 to know that is bad. To go from state
salary to minimum wage is a huge drop.
Don't Worry About Falling
Prices
Look
around and you see a general downtrend develop: U.S. stocks (NYSEArca: IWB
- News),
international stocks (NYSEArca: EFA - News)
and emerging market stocks (NYSEArca: EEM
- News).
The same applies to commodities (NYSEArca: DBC
- News),
real estate prices (NYSEArca: RWR - News)
and consumer goods. The above-mentioned 'don't worries' all contribute to the
deflationary spiral (see image below for a visual). Unemployment remains high
because businesses have no pricing power. This leads to lower income, default
foreclosures, and ultimately even higher unemployment. Even Bernanke knows,
there is no easy fix to a deflationary cycle. Once engrained, it feeds on
itself. [chart]
Don't Worry About Death Crosses
A death cross is one of the most powerful technical indicators. It occurs when the shorter simple moving average (SMA) crosses below the longer SMA. Over the last few weeks we saw literally dozens of such death crosses. Most notable was the S&P, Dow Jones and Nasdaq experiencing not only a death cross created by the 50 and 200-day SMA, but also courtesy of the 10 and 40-week SMA. Despite the rally from the July lows, the sell signal triggered by the various death crosses remained active. The fact that the Dow Jones was the only major index to rally above the June 21 highs provides an additional bearish non-confirmation. Over the past ten years, the buy/sell action triggered by the SMA crosses has a success rate of 75% - 100%. Winning trades outperformed losing trades by a ratio of at least 3:1. In investing, those are not the kind of odds you want to bet against. In other words, it's time to face reality and abandon denial. Leading up to the April highs, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted a pinnacle of denial which was reflected by investors' outright enthusiasm about stocks. At a time when approximately 8 of 10 investment advisors and newsletter writers were bullish on stocks, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted: 'The message conveyed by the composite bullishness is unmistakably bearish. The pieces are in place for a major decline.' Since April 26, the major indexes dropped as much as 17%. Despite the recent rally, this seems to have been only the first installment of a significant decline. This decline is now in progress. In fact, the August issue of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter explains the one chart-pattern that explains why the next leg down will be strong and powerful. A British Historian noted decades ago that a wise person does at once what a fool does at last. Both do the same thing; only at different times. Will you get out of the markets way in time, or too late?
Another one of those ‘come on!’ days. All, yes all, the data was bad. Walmart same store sales were actually down (overseas results were up), and, think about it. Isn’t Walmart, as essentially an american based sales agent of china products a ‘contrarian indicator’ for the the u.s.; that is , hasn’t Walmart’s rise coincided with american main street’s demise. Similarly, fraudulent wall street high frequency churn and earn programmed trade scams among many other frauds as yet unprosecuted has heralded the death knell for american business and the economy, generally. Old news at best and, that ‘not bad as expected, better than expected dog don’t hunt no more’! ‘YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]: … Retailers were also strong. As a group retailers climbed 1.8%. Discount retail giant and Dow component Wal-Mart (WMT 51.02, +0.61) was a solid performer on the back of in-line earnings and an improved forecast. Home improvement retailer and fellow Dow component Home Depot (HD 28.31, +0.93) had a more positive influence over retailers. It posted better-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter, but issued a rather mixed forecast. A smaller-than-expected increase in housing starts during July didn't do anything to derail the stock this session. Housing starts for July increased 1.7% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 546,000 units, which is less than the rate of 555,000 units that had been widely anticipated. Building permits for July fell 3.1% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 565,000, which is below the rate of 573,000 that had been expected…’ But, just a push of the computer programmed trade button and off we go, reality / valuation / economics be damned. In real security analysis (very simplified / summarized), as opposed to the continued frauds on wall street, one must begin with the largest and most significant aggregate (a simple word picture / analogy: ‘rising tide lifts all boats’). If you get this right, the probabilities in your favor are substantially enhanced. From there, you want leading industries, and leading companies within said leading industries (again, larger aggregates then picks, to enhance probabilities, not guarantees, in your favor). Your time frame, 1-3-5 yrs tops for projections, (including income statement/EPS, balance sheet, and applying an appropriate P/E – a detailed, multi-faceted approach beyond what could be described in this summary); and, that’s all they are, projections. Beyond that time frame, your guess. On fraudulent wall street, every day, though already discounted in large part (6-8 mos, approx.), the market spins, churns, and with lightning fast computerized high-frequency trade programs commissions in huge volumes like no other time in financial history when real valuation meant something, with no net economic value added, but very lucrative to the frauds on wall street, which ultimately is a net detriment to the economy / the nation /and other industries as we’ve seen and as described elsewhere on this site and in these posts http://albertpeia.com . Preposterously, they even sometimes refer to seasonal factors as if hearing them for the first time and ‘explaining’ an up move (almost invariably already discounted). Today, they shrugged off the deepening economic reality despite the election year frothing / manipulations. This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. ].
Are You Ready
For How Bad It Will Get? Graham
Summers | ‘There
are numerous components in the latest GDP number that are extremely suspect. The vast majority of investors are going to
be taken to the cleaners.
I realize this view is far from the consensus. Even those who are in the bear
camp aver that the Stimulus did in fact bring us out of recession at least
temporarily.
However,
I would strongly contend that the recovery was in fact non-existent for the
following reasons:
1. The Government data used to validate
the recovery (GPD, unemployment, etc) is clearly massaged if not bordering on
outright propaganda
2. We are in fact in a depression and
the “recovery” was simply a bounce in economic activity taking place within the
context of a larger economy contraction
Regarding #1, every Government data
point used in promoting the “recovery” had some degree of fudging in it. Let’s
consider GDP for instance.
There are numerous devious tactics used
to overstate GDP growth, however, the most obvious gimmick the BLS uses is
overstating GPD growth in the present and then revising it lower in the
subsequent quarters.’
Kaufman on High Frequency Trading ‘Sen. Ted Kaufman (D., Del.) has been banging the drum on the need for
regulatory changes to high frequency trading for a while. His latest
thoughts on the matter take the form of a letter to SEC Chairwoman Mary Schapiro
urging — among other things — major high-frequency trading firms be
required to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Dow Jones Newswires’ Jacob Bunge reports:
In addition, regulators should consider
requiring chief executives of computer-driven trading firms to certify under
oath that their algorithms do not manipulate prices in U.S. stock and
derivative markets, according to Kaufman.
“In the aftermath of the flash crash,
this is an historic moment for the Commission, a moment when it must fulfill
its obligation as steward for those investors who lack the clout of Wall
Street’s largest financial players,” the senator wrote in an Aug. 5 letter to
Mary Schapiro, chairman of the SEC.
Kaufman’s letter to Schapiro came as
the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission prepare to issue in early
September a final report on the market events of May 6, when the Dow Jones
Industrial Average dropped by nearly 1,000 points before swiftly recovering.
As we’ve noted before, at the heart of
events of the May 6 “Flash Crash,” was a decision by certain market makers to
cut back trading, and in some cases pull out of the market all together. Since so
much of the market’s liquidity comes from high-frequency trading or
statistical-arbitrage firms, some say there should be additional obligations to
ensure that these firms don’t pull out of the market.
Last week, New York Sen. Chuck Schumer offered
some of his suggestions on how to sort out the obligations of market
makers, whom he seemed somewhat sympathetic toward. He noted that since some of
the obligations he proposed were “burdensome and making markets is voluntary …
the Commission should consider appropriate incentives for high frequency
traders to become market makers.”
Kaufman seems to be taking a tougher
line with respect to market makers. In his letter to the SEC he writes:
The SEC should impose some liquidity
provision obligations on high frequency traders. Enhanced requirements should
be crafted to encourage high frequency traders to post two-sided markets and
supply investors with a consistent source of deep liquidity. In addition to
affirmative liquidity provision obligations, the Commission should consider
instituting negative obligations as well.
We have a hunch on which approach the
industry is likely to prefer. At any rate, the Kaufman letter is worth a read
for market wonks. Check it out.’
Deceptive
Economic Statistics: While the economists lied the US economy died Paul Craig Roberts | The bought-and-paid-for-economists got all the
media forums for a decade. While they lied, the US economy died.
Drudgereport:
Bankruptcies
Reach Nearly 5-Year High...
REPORT:
China targets U.S. troops with arms buildup...
Military
power growing...
Pentagon
warning...
Risky
game on the high seas...
How
long can America fend off the dragon?
'Without
a revolution, Americans are history'...
From Good to Mediocre ‘Through last Friday, 2,127 US companies had reported quarterly
numbers this earnings season. What started out as a strong earnings season is
going out with a whimper (earnings season ends tomorrow with Wal-Mart's
report)…’
High Probability for Lower Market Prices Ahead ‘…Economic numbers being what they are (very poor), we
should expect a downward revision of second quarter GDP to 1.5% from the
originally disappointing number of 2.4%. As more data is being released it is
apparent that we are witnessing even further deterioration here in the third
quarter…We may have reached a tipping point where many are tired of others
being the benefactors of taxpayer money …’
Gold Providing Safety During Market Downturn ‘ … The death cross occurs when the 50
day moving average crosses the 200 day moving average on the downside. These
patterns, when combined with other technical indicators can predict major
market downturns…THE ODDS OF A LONG TERM DOWNTREND ARE
BECOMING HIGHLY PROBABLE. THESE SIGNALS COULD POSSIBLY INDICATE THE START OF A
TWELVE TO EIGHTEEN MONTH DOWN CYCLE. Gold, on the other hand, has shown
great relative strength despite the general markets correcting and negative
sentiment about the economy from Washington…’
Will
Quantitative Easing By The Federal Reserve Unleash Economic Hell? The Economic Collapse | Most of the folks populating Congress are so
incompetent that they should not even be hired to mop the floors of a Dairy
Queen.
China
surpasses Japan as world's No. 2 economy
(Washington Post) [ As
if we didn’t see that coming! ]
HOW TO BEAR MARKET PROOF YOUR PORFOLIO , On Friday
August 13, 2010, ‘… The 22 trading days following the April 26
market highs erased eight months worth of gains. Bear markets move much quicker
than bull markets.
Rule #1: Better too Early than too Late
When preparing for a bear market (we'll discuss in a
moment why we have been preparing for a bear market), it is prudent to start
early. Anyone who sold their long positions as early as September last year
would be in a better position than the buy-and hold crowd that is still
clinging to their holdings.
Rule #2: Don't Trust Wall Street and the Media
By now, even the mainstream media is sensing that
something might not be quite right with the market's performance. However,
there is still hope that the second half of the year will get a lift from
positive earning results. Before you bet your money on that line of reasoning,
consider the picture the media painted days within the April 2010 market top.
April 19, 2010 'America is back - The remarkable tale of
an economic turnaround' – Newsweek
'Recovery tilting to V-shape as profits prompts growth revision' - Bloomberg
April 25, 2010: 'U.S. stocks cheapest since 1990 on
analyst estimates' – Bloomberg
'Technical Analysts see room to roll' - Wall Street Journal
April 27, 2010 'Greece contagion fears unfounded' -
Reuters
May 3, 2010: 'Manufacturing in U.S. grows at fastest pace
since 2004 as recovery gains traction' - Bloomberg
Over the past two and a half months, the S&P
(NYSEArca: SPY - News) and Dow (NYSEArca: DIA - News) have lost as much as 17%. A 20% loss is
considered the mark of a new bear market. In essence, we are only one bad day
away from the next bear. Of course, throughout the massive bear market rally
from the March 2009 lows, which the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
predicted via the March 2, 2009 Trend Change Alert, the newsletter maintained
that it was only a bear market trap which would fool a majority of investors.
On April 16 it stated that 'Most bulls have no clue why they are bullish except
for the fact that they feel the need to play the momentum game. Sounds like
2000 and 2007 all over again. The message conveyed by the composite bullishness
is unmistakably bearish.'
Rule #3: Don't Underestimate Cash
In a period of falling prices, cash or cash equivalents
like short term Treasuries (NYSEArca: SHY - News) maintain your purchasing power -
long-term Treasuries (NYSEArca: TLT - News) are interest rate sensitive and may move
faster than you think. When stocks fall and you are able to maintain your
purchasing power, you are able to buy stocks at a discount. In essence, cash
offers a positive return in periods of falling prices. Additionally, or
alternatively, investors may choose to buy short or leveraged short ETFs such
as the Short S&P 500 ProShares (NYSEArca: SH - News), UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares
(NYSEArca: TWM - News) UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares
(NYSEArca: SDS - News), Short Financial ProShares (NYSEArca: SEF -News), Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3x Shares
(NYSEArca: FAZ - News) and many more.
Rule #4: Don't Procrastinate
On May 14, the ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter predicted that the S&P (NYSEArca: IVV - News) will fall through the important 1,040
resistance level. Aside from a small cluster of resistances (one being round
number resistance), a break below 1,040 opened the door wide for significantly
lower prices. We mentioned above that we've been preparing for a reemerging
bear market even before the April highs. Why? Simply put, stocks are
overvalued. How can that be? One of the above headlines read that U.S. stocks
are cheapest since 1990, at least according to analyst projections. The key
word is projections. Analysts project operating earnings for the S&P to
clock in at $94.83 in 2011. This is higher than the 2007 peak of $91.47. That's
right, despite record high unemployment, a European (NYSEArca: VGK - News) debt crisis, a 17% U.S. market
correction, and all the other problems economists expect corporate profits will
exceed their 2007 all-time highs. Does that sound reasonable to you? Keep in
mind that projected earnings are just that - projected. They can and will
change. In fact, analysts have a reputation of following the trend. In April
2008, analysts predicted earnings of $113. After cutting its forecast to $53,
Goldman Sachs cut its earnings forecast to $40 in March 2009. As we know today,
stocks rallied, and actual 2009 earnings came in at $56.87. The list goes on,
but the simple message is that analysts tend to be overly optimistic before the
fall and overly pessimistic before a rally. Right now they are overly
optimistic. The conclusion is easy.
Rule #5: Know who to Trust
Even when basing the current P/E ratio on overly
optimistic estimates, it is still far away from the P/E ratios seen at historic
market bottoms. The same holds true for dividend yields. A look at various
valuation measures shows that the market is overvalued by much more than just
10 or 20%. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter provides a detailed analysis of four
valuation metrics with a near spotless track record of historic
accuracy…’
No Exit, Stage Left or Right
Peter shiff ‘… Those who fear a double dip
recession are justified in their concerns, but they are also missing the big
picture. The 2008 recession never ended. It was merely interrupted by
trillions of dollars of stimulus that purchased GDP “growth” with borrowed
money. But as the bills come due, GDP should now contract … After decades
of abuse, it’s time for the Fed to take make a dramatic exit, because the US
economy can’t take it anymore.’
Capital Controls: The Final
Phase in the Great Looting of America Eric Blair | Capital controls are the
next big event in the government-banking-oligarchy’s great looting of America.
Fed Leads America “To The Brink
Of Collapse” When even the New York Times and CNN are admitting that the
United States faces not only a double-dip recession but potentially a new great
depression, any alarm bells that have not been rung should now be sounding
loudly.
Bailouts Went To Foreign Banks:
Congressional Report Confirms What We Already Knew A Congressional Oversight
Panel issued today highlights the fact that large portions of the Treasury’s
$700 billion bailout fund have gone straight into the coffers of foreign banks,
a fact that we knew months ago, but is only now being officially recognised.
Marc Faber: Protect Your
Property with High Voltage Fences, Barbed Wire, Booby Traps, Military Weapons
and Dobermans Investment guru and publisher of The Gloom, Boom and Doom
report, Marc Faber, regularly discusses investment strategies for protecting
and building wealth during times of economic distress.
Warnings:
Social Security at risk
(Washington Post) [ Not this again! It bears repeating, that was always
a bad idea and there was a plethora of reasons set forth on my site as to why
the social security privatization plan being shilled by moron war criminal
dumbya bush on behalf of the wall street frauds was an exceedingly bad idea.
Indeed, as defacto insolvent as america / the social security system is, the
nation and system would have been wiped out by privatization debacle. Talk
about too big to, but still failed. It was a bad idea then, and though
accusations may fly as to fear mongering, the reality of the venality attendant
to such a preposterous course on behalf of the wall street frauds requires
vigilance, scrutiny, and discourse concerning even the remote possibility of such
a fool-hearty betrayal of the citizenry of the nation. As such, as off the mark
as wobama has almost invariably been, he’s on the mark on this. ]ANALYSIS | Obama says GOP wants to privatize program, but
liberals see a different threat.
Foreclosures
surge 9 percent in July (Washington
Post) Those glass-half-full frauds on wall street along with the administration
will be cheering this unequivocally bad news with a dubious retort as ‘used
home sales will rise’ … riiiight! Anything you say …
Stocks
dip for third straight day (Washington
Post) [Investor fears? How ‘bout reality. Even an essentially non-business site
as Drudge has the pulse of this pervasive realization that ‘those dogs of happy
days are here again don’t hunt no more’. Check the heads: DRUDGEREPORT: America Is
'Bankrupt Mickey Mouse Economy'...
WIRE:
USA 'Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It'...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT HITS RECORD HIGH
JOBLESS
CLAIMS JUMP TO HIGHEST SINCE FEB...
California
can't pay bills -- may use IOUs for August payments...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
Homes
lost to foreclosure up 6% from last year...
Grim
Voter Mood Turns Grimmer...
and Economists
Herald New Great Depression The world is
currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression,
according to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others
now forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.
Peter Schiff: “We’re in the
Early Stages of a Depression” The Motley Fool | Four years and the worst
recession since the Great Depression later, Schiff stands alone again with a
bleaker diagnosis for the economy: an inflationary depression. My take: This is a global
depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up
move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has
been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with
great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell
into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam /
fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will
not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are
criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed
Pearlstein: The
FCC and the bandwidth wars (Washington
Post) [The internet has been among the few areas of growth and american
prominence, at least at this point in time. Clearly, as with the throng that
heralded in NAFTA, the self-interested voices of ie., google, verizon, etc., are
similarly anathema to the greater good (as was NAFTA). Berners-Lee spoke
against such parochialism in no uncertain terms, much as did Ross Perot on
NAFTA and history has proven Perot correct as is so of the mind numbing
approaches of google, verizon, etc.] Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse (infowars.com) [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the
internet along with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously
opposed same and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and
verizon as mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc.,
operatives at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government
hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went public today with their “policy
framework” — better known as the pact to end the Internet as we know it.
AP Business
Highlights ‘Jobs picture dims as
unemployment claims rise WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy is looking bleaker
as new applications for jobless benefits rose last week to the highest level in
almost six months. It's a sign that hiring remains weak and employers may be
going back to cutting their staffs. Analysts say the increase suggests
companies won't be adding enough workers in August to lower the 9.5 percent
unemployment rate. First-time claims for jobless benefits edged up by 2,000 to
a seasonally adjusted 484,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. That's the
highest total since February. Analysts had expected claims to fall…’
Bearish Sentiment Falls to 14-Week Low [Talk about contrarian indicators!] AAII – ‘Bullish sentiment rose
9.4 percentage points to 39.8% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Despite the
size of the increase, the proportion of individual investors expecting stock
prices to rise over the next six months is only at a two-week high. The
historical average is 39%. Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices
will stay essentially flat over the next six months, fell 1.3 percentage points
to 30.1%. The historical average is 31%. Bearish sentiment, expectations that
stock prices will fall, dropped 8.1 percentage points to 30.1%. This is a
14-week low. The historical average is 30%. The survey period, Thursday through
Wednesday, needs to be taken into consideration when looking at these results.
Stock prices were essentially flat through most of this week's survey period
(with the obvious exception of yesterday), giving some investors hope that a
short-term bottom had been established. Though there were big changes in
bullish and bearish sentiment, both optimism and pessimism are close to their
historical averages. As a result, I would argue that individual investors'
confidence in the market remains fragile…’
U.S.
trade deficit startles markets (Washington Post) [ Unexpectedly? I don’t
think so! And, I have my site, other references / links and posts to prove it;
and, what’s more, I’m not alone. After all, what are NAFTAs for anyway.
However, I also must candidly admit I don’t frequent the mainstream blather /
propaganda that includes the ‘money-honeys’ (when the messenger’s more
important than the message, problems and distortions are bound to follow) and
their ilk, etc.. NBR’s
about it and even they have their pressures (I don’t consider the Washington
Post mainstream in the pejorative sense of the word, with a rich journalistic
history to back that up, all things considered) ]. Unexpectedly bad news from
three continents reinforces fears that global recovery is faltering.
Obama signs $26 billion jobs
bill (WP) [I feel compelled to
comment here that even using capital hill math one would be hard-pressed to
justify $26 billion taxpayer / treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save
300,000 state / local government jobs! After all, the nation is defacto
bankrupt! I think the former Soviet Union would have done the same.]
Fed action signals new activism (Washington
Post) [ Riiiiight! The activist fed! That’s all we need. As if we needed more
of what brought us to this point! Certainly the fed’s role in the continuing
and current financial crisis / debacle cannot be ignored or disputed. Nothing
like a hegelian methodology to create
the very problems for which they are called upon to offer solutions, increasing
their sense of importance, and concentrating power thereby. (Think about it. It
is really rather quite absurd that each meeting time the financial markets hold
their bated breath for these incompetent boobs). Then there’s the cover-up with
an opportunity for enrichment of some, usually the tight-lipped yes-men then
ever after and forever bonded in what becomes tantamount to an almost fraternal
link by ‘virtue’ of the crime thereby. No, I’m not saying their initial
missteps were necessarily badly intended, but the manipulations thereafter to
obfuscate their incompetence (senile greenspun, no-recession-helicopter-ben,
etc.) comes at a great price and is nothing less than tantamount to or just
outright crime. I’d abolish the fed without hesitation or compunction. After
all, at this point of decline and defacto bankruptcy of the nation you
certainly can’t point to success nor argue their indispensability. Then there’s
also the missing trillions, over-printing of fiat currency, and all that sub
rosa activity with the worthless fraudulent toxic paper which I believe is
being supplanted with ultimately hard currency to the great benefit of the
frauds and great detriment to the nation.]
ACCORDING TO TECHNICAL INDICATORS, MELTDOWN IS
POSSIBLE A
SOLID TRACK RECORD An analysis
of the SMA crossover buy/sell signals triggered for the S&P over the past
10 days shows that six of the eight signals (75%) were correct. ..LAGGING
BUT ACCURATE Many dismiss
the 200-day or other SMAs as lagging indicators. Although an indicator may be
lagging it doesn't mean it's incorrect or should be dismissed… Even though a
lagging indicator, the rain does confirm that a storm is coming. A
PRO-ACTIVE APPROACH You'd expect Wall Street and the
financial media to be the financial weather man and warn you of upcoming
storms. Unfortunately, that is not so. Leading up to the April 2010 recovery
highs, Wall Street and the media proclaimed the skies are clear, 'sunny
throughout the year' was their weather forecast. Only after investors got
drenched, did Wall Street recommend pulling out the umbrella. Sure enough, as
soon as the umbrellas came out, stocks switched into rally mode and the sky
cleared up. Unlike Wall Street, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned of
the brewing storm while it was still sunny. On April 16, the newsletter warned
that 'historically, there has rarely been a more pronounced sell signal ...
When consumers spend, they do so with credit cards. Visa and Master Card both
got hit with a death cross. It's just a matter of time until the discretionary
sector follows. WAIT, THERE IS MORE …High copper
prices are reflective of high demand and a humming economy. Lower copper prices
signal trouble ahead. On June 22, an ominous death cross visited copper's
chart. PUTTING THE ODDS IN YOUR FAVOR Investing is
a game of probabilities. While you always want to have the odds in your favor,
you never want to bet against the odds. Right now, the odds are piling up on
the bearish side of the ledger. Even though Wall Street is saying that the sky
has cleared up, 'meteorologists' with a better track record are warning of the
storm ahead. In fact, there is one rare chart formation that strongly suggests
the onset of a 2008-like decline, a development that's certainly supported by
the number of death crosses spanning a variety of markets. The August issue of
the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter includes a detailed short, mid and
long-term forecast, along with the one chart that tells the market's story and
true bearish potential.
Californians’ income falls for
first time since WWII Sacramento
Bee | The personal incomes of
Golden State workers fell by that amount in 2009 compared with the previous
year.
Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the internet along
with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously opposed same
and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and verizon as
mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc., operatives
at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went
public today with their “policy framework” — better known as the pact to end
the Internet as we know it.
DRUDGEREPORT:
America Is
'Bankrupt Mickey Mouse Economy'...
WIRE:
USA 'Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It'...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT HITS
RECORD HIGH
JOBLESS
CLAIMS JUMP TO HIGHEST SINCE FEB...
California
can't pay bills -- may use IOUs for August payments...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
Homes
lost to foreclosure up 6% from last year...
Grim
Voter Mood Turns Grimmer...
Claims
of Afghan civilian deaths spark protest...
Military
sees heavier fighting in fall...
PAPER:
10 reasons why Obama presidency is in meltdown...
GALLUP:
Even the Poor Are Abandoning Obama; Approval Under 50%...
Obama
abolishes White House position dedicated to transparency...
Michelle
Obama popularity falls...
UPDATE:
Suspected serial killer arrested in Atlanta...
Attempting
to flee to israel … to be with kindred spirits ...
MOB
RUSH FOR FED AID DRAWS RIOT POLICE
DOW drops
265...
Feds
rethink policies that encourage home ownership...
Obama: $3
Billion More in Aid for Unemployed...
US
posts widest trade gap in 20 months...
Q2 GDP Growth Could Be Revised To Just 1% After Trade Data...
PUMP:
FED TO BUY MORE DEBT...
DOWNGRADES
OUTLOOK...
US-backed
fighters in Iraq defect to al-Qaida... [Winning hearts and minds …
for Al Qaida … just one too many civilian deaths for no good reason at all ]
Republicans
Suggest Names for 'Second Stimulus' Bill...
'Where
do the bailouts end?' [I feel compelled to comment here that
even capital hill math would be hard-pressed to justify $26 billion taxpayer /
treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save 300,000 state / local
government jobs! After all, the nation is defacto bankrupt! ]
Gerald Celente On the Alex
Jones Show: Double Dip Depression Will Lead Us Into War The white shoe boys are
taking us into the worst depression in history.
Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the internet along
with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously opposed same
and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and verizon as
mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc., operatives
at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went
public today with their “policy framework” — better known as the pact to end
the Internet as we know it.
Economists
Herald New Great Depression The world is
currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression,
according to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others
now forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.
Riiiiight! That ‘no-longer looking’ dynamic that saves the day and the ue rate
at 9.5%. At this rate of progress, and according to their thinking and
manipulations, full employment at an unprecedented 0% unemployment is just
around the corner as everyone stops looking for the jobs no longer here, many
of which were sent overseas and which are not coming back owing to substantial
economic structural / financial shifts.
Jobs Report: Companies Slow to Hire ABC
News - Only about 8 percent of the 8.4 million jobs lost at the
peak of the recession have been recovered, leaving millions of Americans still
looking for work, according to an analysis by ABC News' Business Unit. Video: News Update: US
Unemployment Rate Holds at 9.5%, 71,000 Jobs Added in June SmarTrend News 71K more jobs not enough to dent unemployment rate The Associated Press
When perusing the headlines and the
following, I immediately thought ‘between Iraq and a hard place (Afghanistan
and america’s defacto bankruptcy)’:
Between a Rock and a Hard Place Jerry Slusiewicz ‘Everyone knows that being between a rock
and a hard place is not a good place to be. That is where the market is right
now. We continue to have terrible news in the housing sector. There is no
general economic recovery as of yet. Jobless claims continue to mount, while
net new jobs are not being created in a significant enough number to even
sustain the population growth (approximately 150,000 net new jobs per month
needed). By far the majority of economic reports for May, June, July, and now
August, have been worse than forecast. That includes home starts, home sales,
home-builder confidence, retail sales, auto sales, consumer confidence, durable
goods orders, manufacturing, jobs, etc. Yet the market rallies or barely goes
down on these bad reports. What gives? It seems that bad news is good news
right now…
Stepping Aside Because I Can Always
Buy Back In Leigh Drogen ‘I sold
out of everything this morning, for a few reasons…First, breakouts don’t always
work and momentum stocks have a habit of ending their trends abruptly.
Second, …I can buy back in this afternoon if I change my mind (not likely). I
see more risk to the downside here than I do to the upside. …Third, the jobs
number tomorrow scares me. No, it doesn’t matter what the number is, we all
know it’s going to be bad, what matters is how the market reacts, and I have
the feel it’s not going to be good. Fourth, many of my oscillators are
overbought here.Fifth, and finally, I don’t like the fact that this rally has
primarily taken place on the back of the most beaten down sectors. …It all just
doesn’t pass the smell test for me. I’ve been successful at this not because
I’m always right, but because I know when I’m wrong and I’m willing to change
course or step aside. Right now, I’ll step aside.’
Were Unemployment Claims Really So 'Unexpected'?
WE’RE UNDERESTIMATING THE BEARISH POTENTIAL , August 3, 2010
’… Will Anything Stop the Market? Something Did
… At the same
time, the April numbers were lowered the second time by an additional 24,000
units, while May sales were revised lower by 33,000 units. To summarize, April
and May sales were reduced by 57,000 units. Therefore, June sales were 24%
above May sales. By the way, May sales were the lowest on record…
Temporary
Firehouse Closures Begin In Philadelphia CBS
3 | The
city of Philadelphia has started temporarily closing fire stations in order to
balance its budget.
Warning
Signs Suggest Market Headed for Another Collapse … One can find no shortage of fundamental or
mechanical theories explaining what might form the basis of a future financial
collapse published at Zero Hedge, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Nouriel Roubini or
Karl Denninger. In fact, I buy into a lot of the evidence presented by these
sources, and believe that one gains a better grasp of financial reality
spending 10 minutes with Zero Hedge than spending 2 weeks listening to the
mainstream financial media. It is laughable to compare the vacant drivel coming
out of Dennis Kneale to even one single article published by Tyler Durden or
Ryan Iskander…
1. HEAD &
SHOULDERS ON THE S&P 500, DOW JONES, AND NASDAQ …
2. BULLISH FLAG ON
THE VIX? We can’t have a massive spike in volatility without a coinciding
collapse in the equity markets …
3.
THE DEATH-CROSS ON THE S&P SUGGESTS THE 2009 TO 2010 RALLY MIGHT BE OVER
…
4. THE VOLUMELESS
RALLY & MUTUAL FUND OUTFLOWS
…
5. 1,000 POINT FLASH
CRASHES
…
6. BOND MARKET
DISTRUSTFUL OF THE RALLY
…
7. MARKET LEADERSHIP
IS WEAKENING
[chart] … ‘
Stocks' Late Push: Some
Optimism, Some Pessimism [Late
push … as in a constipated bowel movement … Come on! Another one of those push
the computer programmed trade button and off we go, reality / valuation /
economics be damned. In real security analysis (very simplified / summarized),
as opposed to the continued frauds on wall street, one must begin with the
largest and most significant aggregate (a simple word picture / analogy:
‘rising tide lifts all boats’). If you get this right, the probabilities in
your favor are substantially enhanced. From there, you want leading industries,
and leading companies within said leading industries (again, larger aggregates
then picks, to enhance probabilities, not guarantees, in your favor). Your time
frame, 1-3-5 yrs tops for projections, (including income statement/EPS, balance
sheet, and applying an appropriate P/E – a detailed, multi-faceted approach
beyond what could be described in this summary); and, that’s all they are,
projections. Beyond that time frame, your guess. On fraudulent wall street,
every day, though already discounted in large part (6-8 mos, approx.), the
market spins, churns, and with lightning fast computerized high-frequency trade
programs commissions in huge volumes like no other time in financial history
when real valuation meant something, with no net economic value added, but very
lucrative to the frauds on wall street, which ultimately is a net detriment to
the economy / the nation /and other industries as we’ve seen and as described
elsewhere on this site and in these posts http://albertpeia.com . Preposterously, they
even sometimes refer to seasonal factors as if hearing them for the first time
and ‘explaining’ an up move (almost invariably already discounted). Today, they
shrugged off the deepening economic reality despite the election year frothing
/ manipulations. This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market
in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in
a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and
insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn
pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline,
economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the wall
street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement
imposed. ].
Slowing economic rebound raises
unemployment fears (AP) [Wow! Talk about understatements!]
Marc Faber Questions if Dow
Could Hit 1,000 In the August edition of the ‘The Gloom, Boom
& Doom Report’ Marc Faber questions whether the Dow could hit 1,000 as predicted by Robert Prechter, based
on his interpretation of Elliot Waves, Fibonacci numbers and socioeconomic
trends. Prechter, who has written 13
books on finance (external link), believes
that the stock market is historically overvalued in terms of dividends and
earnings, because of a “great rise in positive social mood.” But the mood
changed in 2000 and the “trend toward negative social mood will lead to an
economic contraction,” according to Prechter. “Small bear markets lead to
recessions, big bear markets lead to depressions. The current bear market will
be the biggest in nearly 300 years, so the depression will be correspondingly
deep,” Prechter said.
Wall
St falls after weak outlooks drag (Reuters) U.S. stocks sagged in volatile
trading on Thursday after weak outlooks from technology companies and downbeat
comments from a Federal Reserve official gave investors little reason to buy.
Fed says some districts report slowing economy (Reuters)
Flaws of the European Stress Test … 'Bank stress test' became the magic phrase. Nothing calms fear
like a stress test that's labeled as rigorous. The stress test raises a few
very obvious questions: 1) Will it work? 2) Why was it needed in addition to a
$1 trillion aid package? 3) Is the stress test just a gimmick to appease
investors? The stress test is conducted by the London-based Committee of
European Banking Supervisors (CEBS). Ironically, the test has ignored the
majority of banks' holdings of sovereign debt. Sovereign debt concerns by the
so-called PIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain) triggered the
latest wave of financial problems. Ignoring sovereign debt in the Euro stress
test would be like ignoring toxic real estate assets in the U.S. 10%
Good - 90% Bad According to a Morgan Stanley survey, European banks hold about 90%
of their Greek government bonds in their banking books and 10% in their trading
books. The bonds in the banking book are generally held until maturity, the
bonds in the trading book are traded more frequently. According to a document
obtained by Bloomberg, the stress test assumes a loss of 23.1% on Greek debt,
14% on Portuguese bonds, 12.3% on Spanish debt, 4.7% on German debt, 10% on
U.K. debt, and 5.9% on French debt. However, the stress test only looks at the
bonds held in banks' trading books, which account for a mere 10% of Greek bond
holdings. Can that be called a stress test? Nouriel Roubini says that 'the
assumptions made about economic growth, about sovereign risk are not realistic
enough.' The fact that only seven banks failed the test with a combined
shortfall of $4.5 billion confirms the lax nature of the test. … The U.S. Bank Stress Test - A Nice Façade A closer look under the hood of
the U.S. bank stress test, however, shows that there's not much substance
behind the facade either. It was determined that the 19 tested U.S. banks need
to increase their balance sheets by $75 billion to meet the conditions of
what's termed the 'worst case scenario.' To a large extent, the $75 billion of
additional capital was financially engineered. Banks didn't have to actually
raise $75 billion. They were able to change the label of some of their assets on
their balance sheets. The government supported this practice via mandatory
convertible preferred shares (detailed analysis in May 2009 issue of the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter) …’
Moody's:
Regional banks on review for downgrade (AP)
Consumer
confidence dims (Reuters)
Job worries drove July U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest since
February, with one in six people expecting lower income in the next six months,
underscoring the precarious state of econo...
Global
steelmakers paint gloomy picture (Reuters)
US
bank failures in 2010 surpass 100
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. bank failures this year have surpassed a bleak
milestone of 100 as regulators shut down banks in Georgia, Florida, South
Carolina, Kansas, Nevada and Minnesota. The six bank seizures announced Friday
bring to 102 the failures so far in 2010. The pace of bank closures this year
is well ahead of that of last year, which saw a total 140 bank shuttered amid
the recession and mounting loan defaults …
On the Disconnect Between the Market and the Economy Michael Shulman:
(No recession helicopter ben) Bernanke Admits Major Policy Failures; Stocks Soar Darryl Montgomery What's wrong with this picture?
In his bi-annual testimony before Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke
admitted that after more than a year and a half of zero interest rates and $3
trillion in federal deficit spending since 2008, the best case
scenario for the U.S. economy is slow growth and high unemployment. The S&P
500 is up 2.5% so far this morning on this 'good' news. Bernanke's congressional testimony included the
following statements (emphasis added by me):
"Most [FOMC] participants viewed uncertainty
about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the
majority saw [at the June Fed meeting] the risks to growth as weighted to
the downside."
"Financial conditions--though much improved
since the depth of the financial crisis--have become less supportive of
economic growth in recent months."
"Many banks continue to have a large volume
of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight.
With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank
loans outstanding have continued to contract."
"After two years of job losses, private payrolls
expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this
year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially.
In all likelihood, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the
nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009."…
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Did Google Block “Barry
Soetoro” Search Term? Screenshots obtained by a Prison Planet reader suggest
that Google may have moved to de-list “Barry Soetoro” as a popular search term
shortly after it rose to the top of the Google Trends charts after yesterday’s
effort by radio talk show host Alex Jones to focus attention on Barack Obama’s
real name.
Feb
26, 2009 ... Bolton, the NEOCON gift that keeps on giving the
Repuglycans zero ... The problem with McCain was this. As a veteran
and a POW he get's high marks. ..... to get some treatment at the closest mental
health facility. ...
thinkprogress.org/2009/02/26/bolton-nukes-chicago/ -
Cached
- Similar
Aug
4, 2009 ... Bolton, like all neocons, doesn't understand that
there is ..... Of course, we all know it was BUSH who caused the problem
in the first place, right? .... they view the world in the light of their own mental
disorder, ...
thinkprogress.org/2009/08/.../bolton-north-korea-journalists/ - Cached
- Similar
Show
more results from thinkprogress.org
Dec
21, 2009 ... Re: Breaking: Neocon John Bolton Names Dick
Cheney "Conservati ... republicanism/conservatism is a mental
illness that is killing America and ... Problem is one side will
shamelessly try and stack the deck in their favor ...
crooksandliars.com › Blogs
› Logan
Murphy's blog - Cached
- Similar
Apr
17, 2007 ... On March 25, John Bolton was interviewed by BBC
Newsnight's Jeremy Paxman (video here). ... I think the real problem
was in not relying more on Iraqis. .... BTW, a mental giant, you are
not. The best thing to happen to ...
www.democrats.com › Blogs
› Bob
Fertik's blog - Cached
Bolton and his neo-con
crazies aren't setting the agenda anymore, ... And I do not mean the mental
condition of Mr Bolton and his fellow neocons. ...
www.lobelog.com/bolton-suggests-nuclear-attack-on-iran/ - Cached
- Similar
May
26, 2009 ... It's a special kind of mental illness. ... Bolton
has been derided as "the neocon's neocon" who "laps up
the hosannas of fellow ...
atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/.../dont-hold-your-breath-ambassador-bolton.html - Cached
Dec
4, 2006 ... Clyburn: E-Vote 'Hacked'; Rawl: 'Systemic Software Problems'
.... Add 'The Fall of the NeoCons: Bye Bye Bolton' to
Del.icio · Add 'The ... The Army's Lack of Mental Health Treatment for
Returning Troops" NEXT STORY » ...
www.bradblog.com/?p=3873 - Cached
30
posts - 4 authors - Last post: 21 hours ago
"Religion
is science for the mental ill" - Myself ... John Bolton
is a Bush neo con,,, obviously broke and needing the money. ...
www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1163684/pg2
New
article on darkpolitricks: Neocon Bolton Renews Call for Israel to
Bomb Iran http: darkpoltweeter (Dark Politricks RT): New article on
darkpolitricks: ...
www.wwnewsflash.com/bolton
· [PDF]
File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat - Quick
View
a sweeping diagnosis, it's clear that mental health has been a problem
within ...... Neocon icon John Bolton, Bush's abrasive former
Ambassador to the UN, ...
www.sf911truth.org/neocons.pdf
On
Facebook: Israeli soldier posed with bound Arab (AP)
Are You Ready
For How Bad It Will Get? Graham
Summers | ‘There
are numerous components in the latest GDP number that are extremely suspect. The vast majority of investors are going to
be taken to the cleaners.
I realize this view is far from the consensus. Even those who are in the bear
camp aver that the Stimulus did in fact bring us out of recession at least
temporarily.
However,
I would strongly contend that the recovery was in fact non-existent for the
following reasons:
1. The Government data used to validate
the recovery (GPD, unemployment, etc) is clearly massaged if not bordering on
outright propaganda
2. We are in fact in a depression and
the “recovery” was simply a bounce in economic activity taking place within the
context of a larger economy contraction
Regarding #1, every Government data
point used in promoting the “recovery” had some degree of fudging in it. Let’s
consider GDP for instance.
There are numerous devious tactics used
to overstate GDP growth, however, the most obvious gimmick the BLS uses is
overstating GPD growth in the present and then revising it lower in the
subsequent quarters.’
AP BUSINESS HIGHLIGHTS ‘Homebuilder
confidence sinks for 3rd month WASHINGTON (AP) -- Homebuilder confidence
dropped for the third straight month in August as the struggling economy and a
flood of cheap foreclosed properties kept people from buying new homes. The
National Association of Home Builders said its monthly index of builders'
sentiment about the housing market fell to 13, the lowest reading since March
2009. The index is adjusted for seasonal factors. Readings below 50 indicate
negative sentiment about the market. The last time the index was above 50 was
in April 2006…’
YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]:
’ Last week's near 4% loss made for a bit of a hangover Monday morning as
stocks opened with a loss. An early bounce helped the broader market improve
its position, but it still finished flat.
Early participants were dealt few trading cues. Among the more notable
headlines, there was lower-than-expected annualized second quarter GDP of 0.4%
in Japan, renewed selling in Europe, a slightly smaller-than-expected rise in
the August Empire Manufacturing Index to 7.1, and an earnings miss from home
improvement retailer Lowe's (LOW 19.70, +0.11)…’
The Not-So-Brave New World of QE Whitten ‘The path of global markets going forward could well be
determined by policy makers and politicians, not by natural economic incentives
or the self-elightenment of "Mr. Market." Yet investor faith in the
Fed, particularly as regards the effectiveness of its QE program, may be sorely
misplaced. In the not-so-brave new world of QE, hedge funds, billed as some of
the smartest risk takers on Wall Street, are beginning to look like
ultraconservative Midwest pension funds, piling into treasuries and
"safe" big-cap blue chips. According to Greenwich Associates, hedge
fund trading volume in US treasuries surged by more than 70% in the past year
as they focus their attention on more liquid assets. (Hedge
Funds Pile into the Treasury Bond Market). A Bloomberg article notes the
parallels between the Fed's actions and the failed policies of the Bank of
Japan, with the US Fed predictably insisting that it isn't following the
Japanese playbook … US Banks Still Hiding Losses A recent post by Edward Harrison
in Seeking Alpha flatly states that the U.S. banking system as a whole
is probably insolvent. (US Banks Still
Hiding Losses). This is exactly what was said of Japan’s banking system
before 2003. According to Harrison, "The likely future losses of loans and
assets already on balance sheets at U.S. financial institutions, if incurred
today, would reveal the system as a whole to lack the necessary regulatory
capital to continue functioning under current guidelines.” …’
From Good to Mediocre ‘Through last Friday, 2,127 US companies had reported quarterly
numbers this earnings season. What started out as a strong earnings season is
going out with a whimper (earnings season ends tomorrow with Wal-Mart's
report)…’
High Probability for Lower Market Prices Ahead ‘…Economic numbers being what they are (very poor), we
should expect a downward revision of second quarter GDP to 1.5% from the
originally disappointing number of 2.4%. As more data is being released it is
apparent that we are witnessing even further deterioration here in the third
quarter…We may have reached a tipping point where many are tired of others
being the benefactors of taxpayer money …’
Gold Providing Safety During Market Downturn ‘ … The death cross occurs when the 50
day moving average crosses the 200 day moving average on the downside. These
patterns, when combined with other technical indicators can predict major
market downturns…THE ODDS OF A LONG TERM DOWNTREND ARE
BECOMING HIGHLY PROBABLE. THESE SIGNALS COULD POSSIBLY INDICATE THE START OF A
TWELVE TO EIGHTEEN MONTH DOWN CYCLE. Gold, on the other hand, has shown
great relative strength despite the general markets correcting and negative
sentiment about the economy from Washington…’
Will
Quantitative Easing By The Federal Reserve Unleash Economic Hell? The Economic Collapse | Most of the folks populating Congress are so
incompetent that they should not even be hired to mop the floors of a Dairy
Queen.
China
surpasses Japan as world's No. 2 economy
Washington Post
HOW TO BEAR MARKET PROOF YOUR PORFOLIO , On Friday
August 13, 2010, ‘… The 22 trading days following the April 26
market highs erased eight months worth of gains. Bear markets move much quicker
than bull markets.
Rule #1: Better too Early than too Late
When preparing for a bear market (we'll discuss in a
moment why we have been preparing for a bear market), it is prudent to start
early. Anyone who sold their long positions as early as September last year
would be in a better position than the buy-and hold crowd that is still
clinging to their holdings.
Rule #2: Don't Trust Wall Street and the Media
By now, even the mainstream media is sensing that
something might not be quite right with the market's performance. However,
there is still hope that the second half of the year will get a lift from
positive earning results. Before you bet your money on that line of reasoning,
consider the picture the media painted days within the April 2010 market top.
April 19, 2010 'America is back - The remarkable tale of
an economic turnaround' – Newsweek
'Recovery tilting to V-shape as profits prompts growth revision' - Bloomberg
April 25, 2010: 'U.S. stocks cheapest since 1990 on
analyst estimates' – Bloomberg
'Technical Analysts see room to roll' - Wall Street Journal
April 27, 2010 'Greece contagion fears unfounded' -
Reuters
May 3, 2010: 'Manufacturing in U.S. grows at fastest pace
since 2004 as recovery gains traction' - Bloomberg
Over the past two and a half months, the S&P (NYSEArca: SPY - News) and Dow (NYSEArca: DIA - News) have lost as much as 17%. A 20% loss is
considered the mark of a new bear market. In essence, we are only one bad day away
from the next bear. Of course, throughout the massive bear market rally from
the March 2009 lows, which the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter predicted
via the March 2, 2009 Trend Change Alert, the newsletter maintained that it was
only a bear market trap which would fool a majority of investors. On April 16
it stated that 'Most bulls have no clue why they are bullish except for the
fact that they feel the need to play the momentum game. Sounds like 2000 and
2007 all over again. The message conveyed by the composite bullishness is
unmistakably bearish.'
Rule #3: Don't Underestimate Cash
In a period of falling prices, cash or cash equivalents
like short term Treasuries (NYSEArca: SHY - News) maintain your purchasing power -
long-term Treasuries (NYSEArca: TLT - News) are interest rate sensitive and may move
faster than you think. When stocks fall and you are able to maintain your
purchasing power, you are able to buy stocks at a discount. In essence, cash
offers a positive return in periods of falling prices. Additionally, or
alternatively, investors may choose to buy short or leveraged short ETFs such
as the Short S&P 500 ProShares (NYSEArca: SH - News), UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares
(NYSEArca: TWM - News) UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares
(NYSEArca: SDS - News), Short Financial ProShares (NYSEArca: SEF -News), Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3x Shares
(NYSEArca: FAZ - News) and many more.
Rule #4: Don't Procrastinate
On May 14, the ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter predicted that the S&P (NYSEArca: IVV - News) will fall through the important 1,040
resistance level. Aside from a small cluster of resistances (one being round
number resistance), a break below 1,040 opened the door wide for significantly
lower prices. We mentioned above that we've been preparing for a reemerging
bear market even before the April highs. Why? Simply put, stocks are
overvalued. How can that be? One of the above headlines read that U.S. stocks
are cheapest since 1990, at least according to analyst projections. The key
word is projections. Analysts project operating earnings for the S&P to
clock in at $94.83 in 2011. This is higher than the 2007 peak of $91.47. That's
right, despite record high unemployment, a European (NYSEArca: VGK - News) debt crisis, a 17% U.S. market
correction, and all the other problems economists expect corporate profits will
exceed their 2007 all-time highs. Does that sound reasonable to you? Keep in
mind that projected earnings are just that - projected. They can and will
change. In fact, analysts have a reputation of following the trend. In April
2008, analysts predicted earnings of $113. After cutting its forecast to $53,
Goldman Sachs cut its earnings forecast to $40 in March 2009. As we know today,
stocks rallied, and actual 2009 earnings came in at $56.87. The list goes on,
but the simple message is that analysts tend to be overly optimistic before the
fall and overly pessimistic before a rally. Right now they are overly
optimistic. The conclusion is easy.
Rule #5: Know who to Trust
Even when basing the current P/E ratio on overly
optimistic estimates, it is still far away from the P/E ratios seen at historic
market bottoms. The same holds true for dividend yields. A look at various
valuation measures shows that the market is overvalued by much more than just
10 or 20%. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter provides a detailed analysis of four
valuation metrics with a near spotless track record of historic
accuracy…’
No Exit, Stage Left or Right
Peter shiff ‘… Those who fear a double dip
recession are justified in their concerns, but they are also missing the big
picture. The 2008 recession never ended. It was merely interrupted by
trillions of dollars of stimulus that purchased GDP “growth” with borrowed
money. But as the bills come due, GDP should now contract … After decades
of abuse, it’s time for the Fed to take make a dramatic exit, because the US
economy can’t take it anymore.’
Capital Controls: The Final
Phase in the Great Looting of America Eric Blair | Capital controls are the
next big event in the government-banking-oligarchy’s great looting of America.
Fed Leads America “To The Brink
Of Collapse” When even the New York Times and CNN are admitting that the
United States faces not only a double-dip recession but potentially a new great
depression, any alarm bells that have not been rung should now be sounding
loudly.
Bailouts Went To Foreign Banks:
Congressional Report Confirms What We Already Knew A Congressional Oversight
Panel issued today highlights the fact that large portions of the Treasury’s
$700 billion bailout fund have gone straight into the coffers of foreign banks,
a fact that we knew months ago, but is only now being officially recognised.
Marc Faber: Protect Your
Property with High Voltage Fences, Barbed Wire, Booby Traps, Military Weapons
and Dobermans Investment guru and publisher of The Gloom, Boom and Doom
report, Marc Faber, regularly discusses investment strategies for protecting
and building wealth during times of economic distress.
Warnings:
Social Security at risk
(Washington Post) [ Not this again! It bears repeating, that was always
a bad idea and there was a plethora of reasons set forth on my site as to why
the social security privatization plan being shilled by moron war criminal
dumbya bush on behalf of the wall street frauds was an exceedingly bad idea.
Indeed, as defacto insolvent as america / the social security system is, the
nation and system would have been wiped out by privatization debacle. Talk
about too big to, but still failed. It was a bad idea then, and though accusations
may fly as to fear mongering, the reality of the venality attendant to such a
preposterous course on behalf of the wall street frauds requires vigilance,
scrutiny, and discourse concerning even the remote possibility of such a
fool-hearty betrayal of the citizenry of the nation. As such, as off the mark
as wobama has almost invariably been, he’s on the mark on this. ]ANALYSIS | Obama says GOP wants to privatize program, but
liberals see a different threat.
Foreclosures
surge 9 percent in July (Washington
Post) Those glass-half-full frauds on wall street along with the administration
will be cheering this unequivocally bad news with a dubious retort as ‘used
home sales will rise’ … riiiight! Anything you say …
Stocks
dip for third straight day (Washington
Post) [Investor fears? How ‘bout reality. Even an essentially non-business site
as Drudge has the pulse of this pervasive realization that ‘those dogs of happy
days are here again don’t hunt no more’. Check the heads: DRUDGEREPORT: America Is
'Bankrupt Mickey Mouse Economy'...
WIRE:
USA 'Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It'...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT HITS RECORD HIGH
JOBLESS
CLAIMS JUMP TO HIGHEST SINCE FEB...
California
can't pay bills -- may use IOUs for August payments...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
Homes
lost to foreclosure up 6% from last year...
Grim
Voter Mood Turns Grimmer...
and Economists
Herald New Great Depression The world is
currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression,
according to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others
now forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.
Peter Schiff: “We’re in the
Early Stages of a Depression” The Motley Fool | Four years and the worst
recession since the Great Depression later, Schiff stands alone again with a
bleaker diagnosis for the economy: an inflationary depression. My take: This is a global depression.
This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up move was a
manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a
typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great
regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into.
This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud
as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not
end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally
prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed
Pearlstein: The
FCC and the bandwidth wars (Washington
Post) [The internet has been among the few areas of growth and american
prominence, at least at this point in time. Clearly, as with the throng that
heralded in NAFTA, the self-interested voices of ie., google, verizon, etc.,
are similarly anathema to the greater good (as was NAFTA). Berners-Lee spoke
against such parochialism in no uncertain terms, much as did Ross Perot on
NAFTA and history has proven Perot correct as is so of the mind numbing
approaches of google, verizon, etc.] Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse (infowars.com) [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the
internet along with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously
opposed same and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and
verizon as mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc.,
operatives at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government
hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went public today with their “policy
framework” — better known as the pact to end the Internet as we know it.
AP Business
Highlights ‘Jobs picture dims as
unemployment claims rise WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy is looking bleaker
as new applications for jobless benefits rose last week to the highest level in
almost six months. It's a sign that hiring remains weak and employers may be
going back to cutting their staffs. Analysts say the increase suggests
companies won't be adding enough workers in August to lower the 9.5 percent
unemployment rate. First-time claims for jobless benefits edged up by 2,000 to
a seasonally adjusted 484,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. That's the
highest total since February. Analysts had expected claims to fall…’
Bearish Sentiment Falls to 14-Week Low [Talk about contrarian indicators!] AAII – ‘Bullish sentiment rose
9.4 percentage points to 39.8% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Despite the
size of the increase, the proportion of individual investors expecting stock
prices to rise over the next six months is only at a two-week high. The
historical average is 39%. Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices
will stay essentially flat over the next six months, fell 1.3 percentage points
to 30.1%. The historical average is 31%. Bearish sentiment, expectations that
stock prices will fall, dropped 8.1 percentage points to 30.1%. This is a
14-week low. The historical average is 30%. The survey period, Thursday through
Wednesday, needs to be taken into consideration when looking at these results.
Stock prices were essentially flat through most of this week's survey period
(with the obvious exception of yesterday), giving some investors hope that a
short-term bottom had been established. Though there were big changes in
bullish and bearish sentiment, both optimism and pessimism are close to their
historical averages. As a result, I would argue that individual investors'
confidence in the market remains fragile…’
U.S.
trade deficit startles markets (Washington Post) [ Unexpectedly? I don’t
think so! And, I have my site, other references / links and posts to prove it;
and, what’s more, I’m not alone. After all, what are NAFTAs for anyway.
However, I also must candidly admit I don’t frequent the mainstream blather /
propaganda that includes the ‘money-honeys’ (when the messenger’s more
important than the message, problems and distortions are bound to follow) and
their ilk, etc.. NBR’s
about it and even they have their pressures (I don’t consider the Washington
Post mainstream in the pejorative sense of the word, with a rich journalistic
history to back that up, all things considered) ]. Unexpectedly bad news from
three continents reinforces fears that global recovery is faltering.
Obama signs $26 billion jobs
bill (WP) [I feel compelled to
comment here that even using capital hill math one would be hard-pressed to
justify $26 billion taxpayer / treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save
300,000 state / local government jobs! After all, the nation is defacto
bankrupt! I think the former Soviet Union would have done the same.]
Fed action signals new activism (Washington
Post) [ Riiiiight! The activist fed! That’s all we need. As if we needed more
of what brought us to this point! Certainly the fed’s role in the continuing
and current financial crisis / debacle cannot be ignored or disputed. Nothing
like a hegelian methodology to create
the very problems for which they are called upon to offer solutions, increasing
their sense of importance, and concentrating power thereby. (Think about it. It
is really rather quite absurd that each meeting time the financial markets hold
their bated breath for these incompetent boobs). Then there’s the cover-up with
an opportunity for enrichment of some, usually the tight-lipped yes-men then
ever after and forever bonded in what becomes tantamount to an almost fraternal
link by ‘virtue’ of the crime thereby. No, I’m not saying their initial
missteps were necessarily badly intended, but the manipulations thereafter to
obfuscate their incompetence (senile greenspun, no-recession-helicopter-ben,
etc.) comes at a great price and is nothing less than tantamount to or just
outright crime. I’d abolish the fed without hesitation or compunction. After
all, at this point of decline and defacto bankruptcy of the nation you
certainly can’t point to success nor argue their indispensability. Then there’s
also the missing trillions, over-printing of fiat currency, and all that sub
rosa activity with the worthless fraudulent toxic paper which I believe is being
supplanted with ultimately hard currency to the great benefit of the frauds and
great detriment to the nation.]
ACCORDING TO TECHNICAL INDICATORS, MELTDOWN IS
POSSIBLE A
SOLID TRACK RECORD An analysis
of the SMA crossover buy/sell signals triggered for the S&P over the past
10 days shows that six of the eight signals (75%) were correct. ..LAGGING
BUT ACCURATE Many dismiss
the 200-day or other SMAs as lagging indicators. Although an indicator may be
lagging it doesn't mean it's incorrect or should be dismissed… Even though a
lagging indicator, the rain does confirm that a storm is coming. A
PRO-ACTIVE APPROACH You'd expect Wall Street and the
financial media to be the financial weather man and warn you of upcoming
storms. Unfortunately, that is not so. Leading up to the April 2010 recovery
highs, Wall Street and the media proclaimed the skies are clear, 'sunny
throughout the year' was their weather forecast. Only after investors got
drenched, did Wall Street recommend pulling out the umbrella. Sure enough, as
soon as the umbrellas came out, stocks switched into rally mode and the sky
cleared up. Unlike Wall Street, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned of
the brewing storm while it was still sunny. On April 16, the newsletter warned
that 'historically, there has rarely been a more pronounced sell signal ...
When consumers spend, they do so with credit cards. Visa and Master Card both
got hit with a death cross. It's just a matter of time until the discretionary
sector follows. WAIT, THERE IS MORE …High copper
prices are reflective of high demand and a humming economy. Lower copper prices
signal trouble ahead. On June 22, an ominous death cross visited copper's
chart. PUTTING THE ODDS IN YOUR FAVOR Investing is
a game of probabilities. While you always want to have the odds in your favor,
you never want to bet against the odds. Right now, the odds are piling up on
the bearish side of the ledger. Even though Wall Street is saying that the sky
has cleared up, 'meteorologists' with a better track record are warning of the
storm ahead. In fact, there is one rare chart formation that strongly suggests
the onset of a 2008-like decline, a development that's certainly supported by
the number of death crosses spanning a variety of markets. The August issue of
the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter includes a detailed short, mid and
long-term forecast, along with the one chart that tells the market's story and
true bearish potential.
Californians’ income falls for
first time since WWII Sacramento
Bee | The personal incomes of
Golden State workers fell by that amount in 2009 compared with the previous
year.
Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the internet along
with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously opposed same
and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and verizon as
mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc., operatives
at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went
public today with their “policy framework” — better known as the pact to end
the Internet as we know it.
DRUDGEREPORT:
America Is
'Bankrupt Mickey Mouse Economy'...
WIRE:
USA 'Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It'...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT HITS
RECORD HIGH
JOBLESS
CLAIMS JUMP TO HIGHEST SINCE FEB...
California
can't pay bills -- may use IOUs for August payments...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
Homes
lost to foreclosure up 6% from last year...
Grim
Voter Mood Turns Grimmer...
Claims
of Afghan civilian deaths spark protest...
Military
sees heavier fighting in fall...
PAPER:
10 reasons why Obama presidency is in meltdown...
GALLUP:
Even the Poor Are Abandoning Obama; Approval Under 50%...
Obama
abolishes White House position dedicated to transparency...
Michelle
Obama popularity falls...
UPDATE:
Suspected serial killer arrested in Atlanta...
Attempting
to flee to israel … to be with kindred spirits ...
MOB
RUSH FOR FED AID DRAWS RIOT POLICE
DOW drops
265...
Feds
rethink policies that encourage home ownership...
Obama: $3
Billion More in Aid for Unemployed...
US
posts widest trade gap in 20 months...
Q2 GDP Growth Could Be Revised To Just 1% After Trade Data...
PUMP:
FED TO BUY MORE DEBT...
DOWNGRADES
OUTLOOK...
US-backed
fighters in Iraq defect to al-Qaida... [Winning hearts and minds …
for Al Qaida … just one too many civilian deaths for no good reason at all ]
Republicans
Suggest Names for 'Second Stimulus' Bill...
'Where
do the bailouts end?' [I feel compelled to comment here that
even capital hill math would be hard-pressed to justify $26 billion taxpayer /
treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save 300,000 state / local
government jobs! After all, the nation is defacto bankrupt! ]
Gerald Celente On the Alex
Jones Show: Double Dip Depression Will Lead Us Into War The white shoe boys are
taking us into the worst depression in history.
Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the internet along
with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously opposed same
and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and verizon as
mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc., operatives
at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went
public today with their “policy framework” — better known as the pact to end
the Internet as we know it.
Economists
Herald New Great Depression The world is
currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression,
according to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others
now forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.
Riiiiight! That ‘no-longer looking’ dynamic that saves the day and the ue rate
at 9.5%. At this rate of progress, and according to their thinking and
manipulations, full employment at an unprecedented 0% unemployment is just
around the corner as everyone stops looking for the jobs no longer here, many
of which were sent overseas and which are not coming back owing to substantial
economic structural / financial shifts.
Jobs Report: Companies Slow to Hire ABC
News - Only about 8 percent of the 8.4 million jobs lost at the
peak of the recession have been recovered, leaving millions of Americans still
looking for work, according to an analysis by ABC News' Business Unit. Video: News Update: US
Unemployment Rate Holds at 9.5%, 71,000 Jobs Added in June SmarTrend News 71K more jobs not enough to dent unemployment rate The Associated Press
When perusing the headlines and the
following, I immediately thought ‘between Iraq and a hard place (Afghanistan
and america’s defacto bankruptcy)’:
Between a Rock and a Hard Place Jerry Slusiewicz ‘Everyone knows that being between a rock
and a hard place is not a good place to be. That is where the market is right
now. We continue to have terrible news in the housing sector. There is no
general economic recovery as of yet. Jobless claims continue to mount, while
net new jobs are not being created in a significant enough number to even
sustain the population growth (approximately 150,000 net new jobs per month
needed). By far the majority of economic reports for May, June, July, and now
August, have been worse than forecast. That includes home starts, home sales,
home-builder confidence, retail sales, auto sales, consumer confidence, durable
goods orders, manufacturing, jobs, etc. Yet the market rallies or barely goes
down on these bad reports. What gives? It seems that bad news is good news
right now…
Stepping Aside Because I Can Always
Buy Back In Leigh Drogen ‘I sold
out of everything this morning, for a few reasons…First, breakouts don’t always
work and momentum stocks have a habit of ending their trends abruptly.
Second, …I can buy back in this afternoon if I change my mind (not likely). I
see more risk to the downside here than I do to the upside. …Third, the jobs
number tomorrow scares me. No, it doesn’t matter what the number is, we all
know it’s going to be bad, what matters is how the market reacts, and I have
the feel it’s not going to be good. Fourth, many of my oscillators are
overbought here.Fifth, and finally, I don’t like the fact that this rally has
primarily taken place on the back of the most beaten down sectors. …It all just
doesn’t pass the smell test for me. I’ve been successful at this not because
I’m always right, but because I know when I’m wrong and I’m willing to change
course or step aside. Right now, I’ll step aside.’
Were Unemployment Claims Really So 'Unexpected'?
WE’RE UNDERESTIMATING THE BEARISH POTENTIAL , August 3, 2010
’… Will Anything Stop the Market? Something Did
… At the same
time, the April numbers were lowered the second time by an additional 24,000
units, while May sales were revised lower by 33,000 units. To summarize, April
and May sales were reduced by 57,000 units. Therefore, June sales were 24%
above May sales. By the way, May sales were the lowest on record…
Temporary
Firehouse Closures Begin In Philadelphia CBS
3 | The
city of Philadelphia has started temporarily closing fire stations in order to
balance its budget.
Warning
Signs Suggest Market Headed for Another Collapse … One can find no shortage of fundamental or
mechanical theories explaining what might form the basis of a future financial
collapse published at Zero Hedge, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Nouriel Roubini or
Karl Denninger. In fact, I buy into a lot of the evidence presented by these
sources, and believe that one gains a better grasp of financial reality
spending 10 minutes with Zero Hedge than spending 2 weeks listening to the
mainstream financial media. It is laughable to compare the vacant drivel coming
out of Dennis Kneale to even one single article published by Tyler Durden or
Ryan Iskander…
1. HEAD &
SHOULDERS ON THE S&P 500, DOW JONES, AND NASDAQ …
2. BULLISH FLAG ON
THE VIX? We can’t have a massive spike in volatility without a coinciding
collapse in the equity markets …
3.
THE DEATH-CROSS ON THE S&P SUGGESTS THE 2009 TO 2010 RALLY MIGHT BE OVER
…
4. THE VOLUMELESS
RALLY & MUTUAL FUND OUTFLOWS
…
5. 1,000 POINT FLASH
CRASHES
…
6. BOND MARKET
DISTRUSTFUL OF THE RALLY
…
7. MARKET LEADERSHIP
IS WEAKENING
[chart] … ‘
Stocks' Late Push: Some
Optimism, Some Pessimism [Late
push … as in a constipated bowel movement … Come on! Another one of those push
the computer programmed trade button and off we go, reality / valuation /
economics be damned. In real security analysis (very simplified / summarized),
as opposed to the continued frauds on wall street, one must begin with the
largest and most significant aggregate (a simple word picture / analogy: ‘rising
tide lifts all boats’). If you get this right, the probabilities in your favor
are substantially enhanced. From there, you want leading industries, and
leading companies within said leading industries (again, larger aggregates then
picks, to enhance probabilities, not guarantees, in your favor). Your time
frame, 1-3-5 yrs tops for projections, (including income statement/EPS, balance
sheet, and applying an appropriate P/E – a detailed, multi-faceted approach
beyond what could be described in this summary); and, that’s all they are,
projections. Beyond that time frame, your guess. On fraudulent wall street,
every day, though already discounted in large part (6-8 mos, approx.), the
market spins, churns, and with lightning fast computerized high-frequency trade
programs commissions in huge volumes like no other time in financial history
when real valuation meant something, with no net economic value added, but very
lucrative to the frauds on wall street, which ultimately is a net detriment to
the economy / the nation /and other industries as we’ve seen and as described
elsewhere on this site and in these posts http://albertpeia.com . Preposterously, they
even sometimes refer to seasonal factors as if hearing them for the first time
and ‘explaining’ an up move (almost invariably already discounted). Today, they
shrugged off the deepening economic reality despite the election year frothing
/ manipulations. This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market
in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in
a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national
decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the
wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and
disgorgement imposed. ].
Slowing economic rebound raises
unemployment fears (AP) [Wow! Talk about understatements!]
Marc Faber Questions if Dow
Could Hit 1,000 In the August edition of the ‘The Gloom, Boom
& Doom Report’ Marc Faber questions whether the Dow could hit 1,000 as predicted by Robert Prechter, based
on his interpretation of Elliot Waves, Fibonacci numbers and socioeconomic trends.
Prechter, who has written 13
books on finance (external link), believes
that the stock market is historically overvalued in terms of dividends and
earnings, because of a “great rise in positive social mood.” But the mood
changed in 2000 and the “trend toward negative social mood will lead to an
economic contraction,” according to Prechter. “Small bear markets lead to
recessions, big bear markets lead to depressions. The current bear market will
be the biggest in nearly 300 years, so the depression will be correspondingly
deep,” Prechter said.
Wall
St falls after weak outlooks drag (Reuters) U.S. stocks sagged in volatile
trading on Thursday after weak outlooks from technology companies and downbeat
comments from a Federal Reserve official gave investors little reason to buy.
Fed says some districts report slowing economy (Reuters)
Flaws of the European Stress Test … 'Bank stress test' became the magic phrase. Nothing calms fear
like a stress test that's labeled as rigorous. The stress test raises a few
very obvious questions: 1) Will it work? 2) Why was it needed in addition to a
$1 trillion aid package? 3) Is the stress test just a gimmick to appease
investors? The stress test is conducted by the London-based Committee of
European Banking Supervisors (CEBS). Ironically, the test has ignored the
majority of banks' holdings of sovereign debt. Sovereign debt concerns by the
so-called PIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain) triggered the
latest wave of financial problems. Ignoring sovereign debt in the Euro stress
test would be like ignoring toxic real estate assets in the U.S. 10%
Good - 90% Bad According to a Morgan Stanley survey, European banks hold about 90%
of their Greek government bonds in their banking books and 10% in their trading
books. The bonds in the banking book are generally held until maturity, the
bonds in the trading book are traded more frequently. According to a document
obtained by Bloomberg, the stress test assumes a loss of 23.1% on Greek debt,
14% on Portuguese bonds, 12.3% on Spanish debt, 4.7% on German debt, 10% on
U.K. debt, and 5.9% on French debt. However, the stress test only looks at the
bonds held in banks' trading books, which account for a mere 10% of Greek bond
holdings. Can that be called a stress test? Nouriel Roubini says that 'the
assumptions made about economic growth, about sovereign risk are not realistic
enough.' The fact that only seven banks failed the test with a combined
shortfall of $4.5 billion confirms the lax nature of the test. … The U.S. Bank Stress Test - A Nice Façade A closer look under the hood of
the U.S. bank stress test, however, shows that there's not much substance
behind the facade either. It was determined that the 19 tested U.S. banks need
to increase their balance sheets by $75 billion to meet the conditions of
what's termed the 'worst case scenario.' To a large extent, the $75 billion of
additional capital was financially engineered. Banks didn't have to actually
raise $75 billion. They were able to change the label of some of their assets
on their balance sheets. The government supported this practice via mandatory
convertible preferred shares (detailed analysis in May 2009 issue of the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter) …’
Moody's:
Regional banks on review for downgrade (AP)
Consumer
confidence dims (Reuters)
Job worries drove July U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest since
February, with one in six people expecting lower income in the next six months,
underscoring the precarious state of econo...
Global
steelmakers paint gloomy picture (Reuters)
US
bank failures in 2010 surpass 100
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. bank failures this year have surpassed a bleak
milestone of 100 as regulators shut down banks in Georgia, Florida, South
Carolina, Kansas, Nevada and Minnesota. The six bank seizures announced Friday
bring to 102 the failures so far in 2010. The pace of bank closures this year
is well ahead of that of last year, which saw a total 140 bank shuttered amid
the recession and mounting loan defaults …
On the Disconnect Between the Market and the Economy Michael Shulman:
(No recession helicopter ben) Bernanke Admits Major Policy Failures; Stocks Soar Darryl Montgomery What's wrong with this picture?
In his bi-annual testimony before Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke
admitted that after more than a year and a half of zero interest rates and $3
trillion in federal deficit spending since 2008, the best case
scenario for the U.S. economy is slow growth and high unemployment. The S&P
500 is up 2.5% so far this morning on this 'good' news. Bernanke's congressional testimony included the
following statements (emphasis added by me):
"Most [FOMC] participants viewed uncertainty
about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the
majority saw [at the June Fed meeting] the risks to growth as weighted to
the downside."
"Financial conditions--though much improved
since the depth of the financial crisis--have become less supportive of
economic growth in recent months."
"Many banks continue to have a large volume
of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight.
With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank
loans outstanding have continued to contract."
"After two years of job losses, private payrolls
expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this
year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially.
In all likelihood, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the
nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009."…
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Did Google Block “Barry
Soetoro” Search Term? Screenshots obtained by a Prison Planet reader suggest
that Google may have moved to de-list “Barry Soetoro” as a popular search term
shortly after it rose to the top of the Google Trends charts after yesterday’s
effort by radio talk show host Alex Jones to focus attention on Barack Obama’s
real name.
On
Facebook: Israeli soldier posed with bound Arab (AP)
Preparing
for World War III, Targeting Iran Humanity is at a dangerous crossroads.
War preparations to attack Iran are in “an advanced state of readiness”. Hi
tech weapons systems including nuclear warheads are fully deployed.
Pentagon tells WikiLeaks: "Do right thing" (Reuters) [Great
advice … if only the endless war, military complex based pentagon could take
it!] The Pentagon demanded on Thursday that whistle-blower web site WikiLeaks
immediately hand over about 15,000 secret Afghan war records it had not yet
published and erase material it had alrea…
Oliver
Stone has apologized for his anti-Semitic rant, but is the damage already done.
What damage? To perceived reality as opposed to reality? When you look at
america’s pro-israel, self-destructive, contra-indicated policies, including
the hands off policy vis-ŕ-vis fraudulent wall street, you see the truth to
what he says which is what so many astute individuals are already thinking /
realizing. How can people continue to ignore the truth, to their own detriment
Think about it. Do you really think he would risk the typical onslaught if the
same weren’t true? ‘Director Oliver
Stone has been forced to make a grovelling apology over an anti-Semitic
outburst. The double Academy Award winner claimed that the Russians suffered
more during the Second World War and that there was a Jewish 'domination of the
media'. Stone also said that Jews had '****ed up' U.S. foreign policy for years
and suggested the British supported Hitler ...’ The relentless attacks on Mel
Gibson are of the same caliber and purpose; suppression of truth!
WASHPOST
Ombudsman: Why Silence on Black Panther Story? (Washington Post) ‘Thursday's Post reported about a growing
controversy over the Justice
Department's decision to scale down a voter-intimidation case against members
of the New Black Panther Party. The story succinctly summarized the issues
but left many readers with a question: What took you so long? For months,
readers have contacted the ombudsman wondering why The Post hasn't been
covering the case. The calls increased recently after competitors such as the
New York Times and the Associated Press wrote stories. Fox News and right-wing
bloggers have been pumping the story. Liberal bloggers have countered, accusing
them of trying to manufacture a scandal. But The Post has been virtually
silent. The story has its origins on Election Day in 2008, when two members of
the New Black Panther Party stood in front of a Philadelphia polling place. YouTube
video of the men, now viewed nearly 1.5 million times, shows both wearing
paramilitary clothing. One carried a nightstick…’
Latino
KKK: You are too white to be American! ALIPAC | Tan
Klan woman can scream racist comments because the Obama administration and most
of the major news networks in America have her back.
Drudgereport:
NEW
LOW FOR O: USATODAYGALLUP HAS OBAMA APPROVE AT 41%...
America Is
'Bankrupt Mickey Mouse Economy'...
WIRE:
USA 'Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It'...
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT HITS
RECORD HIGH
JOBLESS
CLAIMS JUMP TO HIGHEST SINCE FEB...
California
can't pay bills -- may use IOUs for August payments...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
Homes
lost to foreclosure up 6% from last year...
Grim
Voter Mood Turns Grimmer...
Claims
of Afghan civilian deaths spark protest...
Military
sees heavier fighting in fall...
UPDATE:
Suspected serial killer arrested in Atlanta...
Attempting
to flee to israel … to be with kindred spirits ...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
MOB
RUSH FOR FED AID DRAWS RIOT POLICE
DOW drops
265...
Feds
rethink policies that encourage home ownership...
Obama: $3
Billion More in Aid for Unemployed...
US
posts widest trade gap in 20 months...
Q2 GDP Growth Could Be Revised To Just 1% After Trade Data...
PUMP:
FED TO BUY MORE DEBT...
DOWNGRADES
OUTLOOK...
US-backed
fighters in Iraq defect to al-Qaida... [Winning hearts and minds …
for Al Qaida … just one too many civilian deaths for no good reason at all ]
Republicans
Suggest Names for 'Second Stimulus' Bill...
'Where
do the bailouts end?' [I feel compelled to comment here that
even capital hill math would be hard-pressed to justify $26 billion taxpayer /
treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save 300,000 state / local
government jobs! After all, the nation is defacto bankrupt! ]
CASTRO
WARNS OF IMPENDING NUCLEAR HOLOCAUST
WELCOME
TO THE RECOVERY...
JULY
UNEMPLOYMENT -131,000 JOBS...
Revised: May/June -97,000 jobs than first reported...
Odd
mix of bad news...
CASTRO
WARNS OF IMPENDING NUCLEAR HOLOCAUST
Michelle
Obama 'modern-day Marie Antoinette'...
NYT:
'Leaves the taxpayers with a hefty bill'...
While
Obama preaches sacrifice, his family frolics in Spain...
Gazpacho,
turbot, veal and ratatouille with the king...
Lavish
Obama vacation in time of economic turmoil raises eyebrows...
BAKER:
'Leaves taxpayers with hefty bill'...
Hollywood
star-studded gala at first lady's luxury hotel...
MICHELLE
O'S $375,000 VACATION?!
Strolls Marbella after State Dept. 'racist' Spaniards gaffe...
White
House calling: Please will you make a coat for Michelle...
Boy
Scouts boo Obama...
GALLUP:
Blacks and Whites Continue to Differ Sharply on Obama...
JUDGE
KNOCKS DOWN MARRIAGE PROP IN CA
BLOW
TO O: MO SAYS NO
Voters
overwhelmingly rejected federal mandate to purchase health insurance...
Americans
swap passports; Desire to avoid tax leads some to renounce citizenship...
Ahmadinejad
survives blast near motorcade...
'Stupid
Zionists have hired mercenaries to assassinate me'...
FALTERING RECOVERY TRIPS DOLLAR...
GM,
FORD and CHRYSLER Sales All Lag Estimates...
Stimulus
Slammed: Republican Senators Release Report Alleging Waste...
The
100 worst stimulus projects...
SHOCK
VIDEO: DEM CONGRESSMAN BRAGS: 'FEDERAL GOVERNMENT CAN DO MOST ANYTHING IN THIS
COUNTRY'...
Deadliest Month Of Afghan War
Paper:
Will Washington's Failures Lead To Second American Revolution
Maxine
Waters faces trial over bank bailout funds...
HOT WATERS
Dems
Say Sorry, Charlie...
Democrats
Say Rangel Should Resign...
Obama:
Time For Rangel To End Career 'With Dignity'...
60,000 babies born to 'noncitizens' get U.S. birthright - in Texas
alone...
Dutch
become 1st NATO member to quit Afghanistan...
HOW TO BEAR MARKET PROOF YOUR PORFOLIO , On Friday
August 13, 2010, ‘… The 22 trading days following the April 26
market highs erased eight months worth of gains. Bear markets move much quicker
than bull markets.
Rule #1: Better too Early than too Late
When preparing for a bear market (we'll discuss in a
moment why we have been preparing for a bear market), it is prudent to start
early. Anyone who sold their long positions as early as September last year
would be in a better position than the buy-and hold crowd that is still
clinging to their holdings.
Rule #2: Don't Trust Wall Street and the Media
By now, even the mainstream media is sensing that
something might not be quite right with the market's performance. However,
there is still hope that the second half of the year will get a lift from
positive earning results. Before you bet your money on that line of reasoning,
consider the picture the media painted days within the April 2010 market top.
April 19, 2010 'America is back - The remarkable tale of
an economic turnaround' – Newsweek
'Recovery tilting to V-shape as profits prompts growth revision' - Bloomberg
April 25, 2010: 'U.S. stocks cheapest since 1990 on
analyst estimates' – Bloomberg
'Technical Analysts see room to roll' - Wall Street Journal
April 27, 2010 'Greece contagion fears unfounded' -
Reuters
May 3, 2010: 'Manufacturing in U.S. grows at fastest pace
since 2004 as recovery gains traction' - Bloomberg
Over the past two and a half months, the S&P
(NYSEArca: SPY - News) and Dow (NYSEArca: DIA - News) have lost as much as 17%. A 20% loss is
considered the mark of a new bear market. In essence, we are only one bad day
away from the next bear. Of course, throughout the massive bear market rally
from the March 2009 lows, which the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
predicted via the March 2, 2009 Trend Change Alert, the newsletter maintained
that it was only a bear market trap which would fool a majority of investors.
On April 16 it stated that 'Most bulls have no clue why they are bullish except
for the fact that they feel the need to play the momentum game. Sounds like
2000 and 2007 all over again. The message conveyed by the composite bullishness
is unmistakably bearish.'
Rule #3: Don't Underestimate Cash
In a period of falling prices, cash or cash equivalents
like short term Treasuries (NYSEArca: SHY - News) maintain your purchasing power -
long-term Treasuries (NYSEArca: TLT - News) are interest rate sensitive and may move
faster than you think. When stocks fall and you are able to maintain your
purchasing power, you are able to buy stocks at a discount. In essence, cash
offers a positive return in periods of falling prices. Additionally, or
alternatively, investors may choose to buy short or leveraged short ETFs such
as the Short S&P 500 ProShares (NYSEArca: SH - News), UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares
(NYSEArca: TWM - News) UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares
(NYSEArca: SDS - News), Short Financial ProShares (NYSEArca: SEF -News), Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3x Shares
(NYSEArca: FAZ - News) and many more.
Rule #4: Don't Procrastinate
On May 14, the ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter predicted that the S&P (NYSEArca: IVV - News) will fall through the important 1,040
resistance level. Aside from a small cluster of resistances (one being round
number resistance), a break below 1,040 opened the door wide for significantly
lower prices. We mentioned above that we've been preparing for a reemerging
bear market even before the April highs. Why? Simply put, stocks are
overvalued. How can that be? One of the above headlines read that U.S. stocks
are cheapest since 1990, at least according to analyst projections. The key
word is projections. Analysts project operating earnings for the S&P to
clock in at $94.83 in 2011. This is higher than the 2007 peak of $91.47. That's
right, despite record high unemployment, a European (NYSEArca: VGK - News) debt crisis, a 17% U.S. market
correction, and all the other problems economists expect corporate profits will
exceed their 2007 all-time highs. Does that sound reasonable to you? Keep in
mind that projected earnings are just that - projected. They can and will
change. In fact, analysts have a reputation of following the trend. In April
2008, analysts predicted earnings of $113. After cutting its forecast to $53,
Goldman Sachs cut its earnings forecast to $40 in March 2009. As we know today,
stocks rallied, and actual 2009 earnings came in at $56.87. The list goes on,
but the simple message is that analysts tend to be overly optimistic before the
fall and overly pessimistic before a rally. Right now they are overly
optimistic. The conclusion is easy.
Rule #5: Know who to Trust
Even when basing the current P/E ratio on overly
optimistic estimates, it is still far away from the P/E ratios seen at historic
market bottoms. The same holds true for dividend yields. A look at various
valuation measures shows that the market is overvalued by much more than just
10 or 20%. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter provides a detailed analysis of four
valuation metrics with a near spotless track record of historic
accuracy…’
T. Rowe Price
Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International
‘U.S.
Stock Market - Week Ended August 13, 2010
- Stocks moved lower for the week. The smaller-cap indexes and the
technology-oriented Nasdaq performed particularly poorly. Discouraging economic
news weighed on investor sentiment and appeared to confirm that the economic
recovery had slowed substantially. On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve acknowledged
in a statement following its policy meeting that "the pace of recovery in
output and employment has slowed in recent months" and that "the pace
of economic recovery is likely to be more modest in the near term than had been
anticipated." The Fed also announced that it would begin buying Treasury
debt with the money it received from principal payments on its holdings of
agency and mortgage-backed debt. Investors initially appeared to welcome the
Fed's signal that it was ready to act to provide additional stimulus to the
economy. Share prices fell sharply on Wednesday, however, as the consensus
seemed to shift to one of concern that economic indicators were sufficiently
worrisome to cause a change in Fed policy. Investors were also discouraged by
data showing a slowdown in factory production in China as well as a rise in the
U.S. deficit, which appeared likely to reduce earlier estimates of
second-quarter economic growth. On Thursday, stocks took another leg down in
response to a rise in weekly jobless claims as well as a disappointing earnings
report and outlook from technology bellwether Cisco Systems.’
U.S. Stocks1 |
|||
Index2 |
Friday's Close |
Week's Change |
% Change |
DJIA |
10303.15 |
-350.41 |
-1.20% |
S&P 500 |
1079.25 |
-42.39 |
-3.21% |
NASDAQ Composite |
2173.48 |
-114.99 |
-4.22% |
S&P MidCap 400 |
734.59 |
-37.34 |
1.09% |
Russell 2000 |
609.85 |
-40.61 |
-3.82% |
Stocks Tread Water Friday, End
With Declines Midnight Trader 4:03 PM, Aug
13, 2010 – ‘
·
-DJIA down 16.80 (-0.16%) to 10,303.15
·
-S&P 500 down 4.35 (-0.40%) to 1,079.26
·
-Nasdaq down 16.79 (-0.77%) to 2,173.48
GLOBAL
SENTIMENT
·
Hang Seng down 0.16%
·
Nikkei up 0.44%
·
FTSE up 0.18%
UPSIDE
MOVERS
(+) DYN sold to Blackstone for $4.50 a
share.
(+) NVDA gains despite earnings miss.
(+) ADSK beats with Q2 results, guides
for Q3 in a range that straddles Street.
DOWNSIDE
MOVERS
(-) NCMI pricing shares.
(-) LLY loses patent decision and cuts
guidance.
(-) JWN meets with EPS, as revs top; FY
guidance straddles Street view.
(-) JCP results top year ago results,
revenue down slightly.
MARKET
DIRECTION
Stocks closed the regular session at
levels just under the even mark as trade mostly moved sideways Friday in the
wake of positive data on consumer sentiment and domestic retail sales. The
lower trade completed the fourth straight day of declines for the major
indices.
Consumer confidence as measured by a
Reuters/University of Michigan poll improved to 69.6 in August from 67.8 in
July, according to reports. Economists polled by MarketWatch expected a rise to
68.8.
The Commerce Department reported that
sales at U.S. retailers increased 0.4% in July, the first rise in three months,
but slightly shy of economist expectations. Sales fell an upwardly revised 0.3%
in June. Most of the July gain came from autos and gasoline. Excluding these
two sectors, retail sales were down 0.1% in July.
The index for U.S. consumer prices rose
0.3% in July, the largest gain since August of 2009, but right in line with
expectations. The core rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices,
rose 0.1% in July, also in line.
Looking out
to next week, earnings season winds down but there are still some heavyweights
due with quarterly financials. On Monday, investors will see results from
Agilent Technologies (A) and
Lowe's (LOW)
followed by Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Home Depot (HD) and Wal-Mart (WMT) on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Applied
Materials (AMAT),
NetApp (NTAP), Deere (DE) and Target (TGT) post numbers. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) reports on Thursday, and AnnTaylor (ANN) is due with results on Friday.
On the economic front, the New York Fed
Empire Manufacturing Index will be released on Monday followed by housing
starts, building permts, PPI, and industrial production; capacity utilization
on Tuesday. On Wednesday, crude inventories will be distributed. Traders will
see initial claims, leading indicators and Philadelphia Fed data on Thursday.
Elsewhere in
today's market, Bank of America Corp. (BAC) plans to acquire more direct stakes in
companies in an effort to boost profits as it faces new rules in the U.S. over
where it can invest, according to Bloomberg. The bank is going to pass on
private equity firms in its investment plans. Already, the bank has sold about
$3 billion of private equity fund investments this year, the report said.
Eli Lilly's (LLY) drug Strattera will likely see
competition from generic drug makers after the company lose a case in U.S.
federal court concerning the drug, which treats attention deficit disorder,
according to a Bloomberg report. The company said it expects "near
term" entry of competitors, according to the report.
Nvidia Corp.
(NVDA) advanced despite missing quarterly
expectations.
Rambus Inc. (RMBS) surged after signing a patent licensing
agreement with Nvidia. The chip design company and its rival have been
embroiled in a legal dispute for some time after Rambus accused Nvidia of
infringing on some of its patents.
Commodities were mostly lower as crude
futures finished down in a difficult week for its September contract. Gold
futures were also lower.
Crude-oil for September delivery closed
down $0.35, or 0.5% at $75.39 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
In other energy futures, heating oil
was down $0.07 to $1.99 a gallon while natural gas rose 0.09%, to $4.30 per
million British thermal units.
Gold for December delivery closed down
$0.10 to $1,216.60 an ounce. In other metal futures, silver rose $0.04 to
$18.11 a troy ounce while copper fell $0.03 to $3.27 a pound.’
No Exit, Stage Left or Right
Peter shiff ‘… Those who fear a double dip
recession are justified in their concerns, but they are also missing the big
picture. The 2008 recession never ended. It was merely interrupted by
trillions of dollars of stimulus that purchased GDP “growth” with borrowed
money. But as the bills come due, GDP should now contract so we can settle
up, but instead we’ll take on more debt. I expect the coming doses of
quantitative easing will finally spark adverse reactions, first in the dollar
and later in the bond market. When a falling dollar forces consumer prices
and long-term interest rates to rise, the Fed’s actions will be rendered
impotent. The Open Markets Committee will have to make a horrific choice: fight
inflation by tightening policy into a weakening economy, or fight recession by
allowing inflation to burn out of control. I think it’s obvious that they will
choose inflation, all the while pretending that it doesn’t exist.
Unfortunately, no one at the Fed has the honesty and courage to suffer the
short-term shock that would accompany any meaningful exit strategy. Withdrawing
liquidity and shrinking the Fed’s bloated balance sheet would no doubt bring on
a severe contraction in GDP, but the moves would also enable the US economy to
form a solid foundation of savings, capital investment, and industrial
production upon which a real recovery could be built. By contrast, more
stimulus simply magnifies the imbalances, including excessive government
spending, too much consumption, inadequate production, and artificially
elevated asset prices. After decades of abuse, it’s time for the Fed to take
make a dramatic exit, because the US economy can’t take it anymore.’
Capital Controls: The Final
Phase in the Great Looting of America Eric Blair | Capital controls are the
next big event in the government-banking-oligarchy’s great looting of America.
Fed Leads America “To The Brink
Of Collapse” When even the New York Times and CNN are admitting that the
United States faces not only a double-dip recession but potentially a new great
depression, any alarm bells that have not been rung should now be sounding
loudly.
Bailouts Went To Foreign Banks:
Congressional Report Confirms What We Already Knew A Congressional Oversight
Panel issued today highlights the fact that large portions of the Treasury’s
$700 billion bailout fund have gone straight into the coffers of foreign banks,
a fact that we knew months ago, but is only now being officially recognised.
Marc Faber: Protect Your
Property with High Voltage Fences, Barbed Wire, Booby Traps, Military Weapons
and Dobermans Investment guru and publisher of The Gloom, Boom and Doom
report, Marc Faber, regularly discusses investment strategies for protecting
and building wealth during times of economic distress.
U.S.
trade deficit startles markets (Washington Post) [ Unexpectedly? I don’t
think so! And, I have my site, other references / links and posts to prove it;
and, what’s more, I’m not alone. After all, what are NAFTAs for anyway.
However, I also must candidly admit I don’t frequent the mainstream blather /
propaganda that includes the ‘money-honeys’ (when the messenger’s more
important than the message, problems and distortions are bound to follow) and
their ilk, etc.. NBR’s
about it and even they have their pressures (I don’t consider the Washington
Post mainstream in the pejorative sense of the word, with a rich journalistic
history to back that up, all things considered) ]. Unexpectedly bad news from
three continents reinforces fears that global recovery is faltering.
Obama signs $26 billion jobs
bill (WP) [I feel compelled to
comment here that even using capital hill math one would be hard-pressed to
justify $26 billion taxpayer / treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save
300,000 state / local government jobs! After all, the nation is defacto
bankrupt! I think the former Soviet Union would have done the same.]
Fed action signals new activism (Washington Post)
[ Riiiiight! The activist fed! That’s all we need. As if we needed more of what
brought us to this point! Certainly the fed’s role in the continuing and
current financial crisis / debacle cannot be ignored or disputed. Nothing like
a hegelian methodology to create the
very problems for which they are called upon to offer solutions, increasing
their sense of importance, and concentrating power thereby. (Think about it. It
is really rather quite absurd that each meeting time the financial markets hold
their bated breath for these incompetent boobs). Then there’s the cover-up with
an opportunity for enrichment of some, usually the tight-lipped yes-men then
ever after and forever bonded in what becomes tantamount to an almost fraternal
link by ‘virtue’ of the crime thereby. No, I’m not saying their initial
missteps were necessarily badly intended, but the manipulations thereafter to
obfuscate their incompetence (senile greenspun, no-recession-helicopter-ben,
etc.) comes at a great price and is nothing less than tantamount to or just
outright crime. I’d abolish the fed without hesitation or compunction. After
all, at this point of decline and defacto bankruptcy of the nation you
certainly can’t point to success nor argue their indispensability. Then there’s
also the missing trillions, over-printing of fiat currency, and all that sub
rosa activity with the worthless fraudulent toxic paper which I believe is
being supplanted with ultimately hard currency to the great benefit of the
frauds and great detriment to the nation.]
ACCORDING TO TECHNICAL INDICATORS, MELTDOWN IS
POSSIBLE A
SOLID TRACK RECORD An analysis
of the SMA crossover buy/sell signals triggered for the S&P over the past
10 days shows that six of the eight signals (75%) were correct. ..LAGGING
BUT ACCURATE Many dismiss
the 200-day or other SMAs as lagging indicators. Although an indicator may be
lagging it doesn't mean it's incorrect or should be dismissed… Even though a
lagging indicator, the rain does confirm that a storm is coming. A
PRO-ACTIVE APPROACH You'd expect Wall Street and the
financial media to be the financial weather man and warn you of upcoming
storms. Unfortunately, that is not so. Leading up to the April 2010 recovery
highs, Wall Street and the media proclaimed the skies are clear, 'sunny
throughout the year' was their weather forecast. Only after investors got
drenched, did Wall Street recommend pulling out the umbrella. Sure enough, as
soon as the umbrellas came out, stocks switched into rally mode and the sky
cleared up. Unlike Wall Street, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned of
the brewing storm while it was still sunny. On April 16, the newsletter warned
that 'historically, there has rarely been a more pronounced sell signal ...
When consumers spend, they do so with credit cards. Visa and Master Card both
got hit with a death cross. It's just a matter of time until the discretionary
sector follows. WAIT, THERE IS MORE …High copper
prices are reflective of high demand and a humming economy. Lower copper prices
signal trouble ahead. On June 22, an ominous death cross visited copper's
chart. PUTTING THE ODDS IN YOUR FAVOR Investing is
a game of probabilities. While you always want to have the odds in your favor,
you never want to bet against the odds. Right now, the odds are piling up on
the bearish side of the ledger. Even though Wall Street is saying that the sky
has cleared up, 'meteorologists' with a better track record are warning of the
storm ahead. In fact, there is one rare chart formation that strongly suggests
the onset of a 2008-like decline, a development that's certainly supported by
the number of death crosses spanning a variety of markets. The August issue of
the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter includes a detailed short, mid and
long-term forecast, along with the one chart that tells the market's story and
true bearish potential.
Californians’ income falls for
first time since WWII Sacramento
Bee | The personal incomes of
Golden State workers fell by that amount in 2009 compared with the previous
year.
Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the internet along
with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously opposed same
and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and verizon as
mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc., operatives
at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went
public today with their “policy framework” — better known as the pact to end
the Internet as we know it.
DRUDGEREPORT:
America Is
'Bankrupt Mickey Mouse Economy'...
WIRE:
USA 'Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It'...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT HITS
RECORD HIGH
JOBLESS
CLAIMS JUMP TO HIGHEST SINCE FEB...
California
can't pay bills -- may use IOUs for August payments...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
Homes
lost to foreclosure up 6% from last year...
Grim
Voter Mood Turns Grimmer...
Claims
of Afghan civilian deaths spark protest...
Military
sees heavier fighting in fall...
PAPER:
10 reasons why Obama presidency is in meltdown...
GALLUP:
Even the Poor Are Abandoning Obama; Approval Under 50%...
Obama
abolishes White House position dedicated to transparency...
Michelle
Obama popularity falls...
UPDATE:
Suspected serial killer arrested in Atlanta...
Attempting
to flee to israel … to be with kindred spirits ...
MOB
RUSH FOR FED AID DRAWS RIOT POLICE
DOW drops
265...
Feds
rethink policies that encourage home ownership...
Obama: $3
Billion More in Aid for Unemployed...
US
posts widest trade gap in 20 months...
Q2 GDP Growth Could Be Revised To Just 1% After Trade Data...
PUMP:
FED TO BUY MORE DEBT...
DOWNGRADES
OUTLOOK...
US-backed
fighters in Iraq defect to al-Qaida... [Winning hearts and minds …
for Al Qaida … just one too many civilian deaths for no good reason at all ]
Republicans
Suggest Names for 'Second Stimulus' Bill...
'Where
do the bailouts end?' [I feel compelled to comment here that
even capital hill math would be hard-pressed to justify $26 billion taxpayer /
treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save 300,000 state / local
government jobs! After all, the nation is defacto bankrupt! ]
Gerald Celente On the Alex
Jones Show: Double Dip Depression Will Lead Us Into War The white shoe boys are
taking us into the worst depression in history.
Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the internet along
with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously opposed same
and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and verizon as
mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc., operatives
at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went
public today with their “policy framework” — better known as the pact to end
the Internet as we know it.
Economists
Herald New Great Depression The world is
currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression,
according to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others
now forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.
Riiiiight! That ‘no-longer looking’ dynamic that saves the day and the ue rate
at 9.5%. At this rate of progress, and according to their thinking and
manipulations, full employment at an unprecedented 0% unemployment is just
around the corner as everyone stops looking for the jobs no longer here, many
of which were sent overseas and which are not coming back owing to substantial
economic structural / financial shifts.
Jobs Report: Companies Slow to Hire ABC
News - Only about 8 percent of the 8.4 million jobs lost at the
peak of the recession have been recovered, leaving millions of Americans still
looking for work, according to an analysis by ABC News' Business Unit. Video: News Update: US
Unemployment Rate Holds at 9.5%, 71,000 Jobs Added in June SmarTrend News 71K more jobs not enough to dent unemployment rate The Associated Press
When perusing the headlines and the
following, I immediately thought ‘between Iraq and a hard place (Afghanistan
and america’s defacto bankruptcy)’:
Between a Rock and a Hard Place Jerry Slusiewicz ‘Everyone knows that being between a rock
and a hard place is not a good place to be. That is where the market is right
now. We continue to have terrible news in the housing sector. There is no
general economic recovery as of yet. Jobless claims continue to mount, while
net new jobs are not being created in a significant enough number to even
sustain the population growth (approximately 150,000 net new jobs per month
needed). By far the majority of economic reports for May, June, July, and now
August, have been worse than forecast. That includes home starts, home sales,
home-builder confidence, retail sales, auto sales, consumer confidence, durable
goods orders, manufacturing, jobs, etc. Yet the market rallies or barely goes
down on these bad reports. What gives? It seems that bad news is good news
right now…
Stepping Aside Because I Can Always
Buy Back In Leigh Drogen ‘I sold
out of everything this morning, for a few reasons…First, breakouts don’t always
work and momentum stocks have a habit of ending their trends abruptly.
Second, …I can buy back in this afternoon if I change my mind (not likely). I
see more risk to the downside here than I do to the upside. …Third, the jobs
number tomorrow scares me. No, it doesn’t matter what the number is, we all
know it’s going to be bad, what matters is how the market reacts, and I have
the feel it’s not going to be good. Fourth, many of my oscillators are
overbought here.Fifth, and finally, I don’t like the fact that this rally has
primarily taken place on the back of the most beaten down sectors. …It all just
doesn’t pass the smell test for me. I’ve been successful at this not because I’m
always right, but because I know when I’m wrong and I’m willing to change
course or step aside. Right now, I’ll step aside.’
Were Unemployment Claims Really So 'Unexpected'?
WE’RE UNDERESTIMATING THE BEARISH POTENTIAL , August 3, 2010
’… Will Anything Stop the Market? Something Did
… At the same
time, the April numbers were lowered the second time by an additional 24,000
units, while May sales were revised lower by 33,000 units. To summarize, April
and May sales were reduced by 57,000 units. Therefore, June sales were 24%
above May sales. By the way, May sales were the lowest on record…
Temporary
Firehouse Closures Begin In Philadelphia CBS
3 | The
city of Philadelphia has started temporarily closing fire stations in order to
balance its budget.
Warning
Signs Suggest Market Headed for Another Collapse … One can find no shortage of fundamental or
mechanical theories explaining what might form the basis of a future financial
collapse published at Zero Hedge, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Nouriel Roubini or
Karl Denninger. In fact, I buy into a lot of the evidence presented by these
sources, and believe that one gains a better grasp of financial reality
spending 10 minutes with Zero Hedge than spending 2 weeks listening to the
mainstream financial media. It is laughable to compare the vacant drivel coming
out of Dennis Kneale to even one single article published by Tyler Durden or
Ryan Iskander…
1. HEAD &
SHOULDERS ON THE S&P 500, DOW JONES, AND NASDAQ …
2. BULLISH FLAG ON
THE VIX? We can’t have a massive spike in volatility without a coinciding
collapse in the equity markets …
3.
THE DEATH-CROSS ON THE S&P SUGGESTS THE 2009 TO 2010 RALLY MIGHT BE OVER
…
4. THE VOLUMELESS
RALLY & MUTUAL FUND OUTFLOWS
…
5. 1,000 POINT FLASH
CRASHES
…
6. BOND MARKET
DISTRUSTFUL OF THE RALLY
…
7. MARKET LEADERSHIP
IS WEAKENING
[chart] … ‘
Stocks' Late Push: Some Optimism,
Some Pessimism [Late push … as in a constipated
bowel movement … Come on! Another one of those push the computer programmed
trade button and off we go, reality / valuation / economics be damned. In real
security analysis (very simplified / summarized), as opposed to the continued
frauds on wall street, one must begin with the largest and most significant
aggregate (a simple word picture / analogy: ‘rising tide lifts all boats’). If
you get this right, the probabilities in your favor are substantially enhanced.
From there, you want leading industries, and leading companies within said
leading industries (again, larger aggregates then picks, to enhance
probabilities, not guarantees, in your favor). Your time frame, 1-3-5 yrs tops
for projections, (including income statement/EPS, balance sheet, and applying
an appropriate P/E – a detailed, multi-faceted approach beyond what could be
described in this summary); and, that’s all they are, projections. Beyond that
time frame, your guess. On fraudulent wall street, every day, though already
discounted in large part (6-8 mos, approx.), the market spins, churns, and with
lightning fast computerized high-frequency trade programs commissions in huge
volumes like no other time in financial history when real valuation meant
something, with no net economic value added, but very lucrative to the frauds
on wall street, which ultimately is a net detriment to the economy / the nation
/and other industries as we’ve seen and as described elsewhere on this site and
in these posts http://albertpeia.com
. Preposterously, they even sometimes refer to seasonal factors as if hearing
them for the first time and ‘explaining’ an up move (almost invariably already
discounted). Today, they shrugged off the deepening economic reality despite
the election year frothing / manipulations. This is a global
depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up
move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has
been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with
great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell
into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam /
fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will
not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are
criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.
].
Slowing economic rebound raises
unemployment fears (AP) [Wow! Talk about understatements!]
Marc Faber Questions if Dow
Could Hit 1,000 In the August edition of the ‘The Gloom, Boom
& Doom Report’ Marc Faber questions whether the Dow could hit 1,000 as predicted by Robert Prechter, based
on his interpretation of Elliot Waves, Fibonacci numbers and socioeconomic
trends. Prechter, who has written 13 books
on finance (external link), believes
that the stock market is historically overvalued in terms of dividends and
earnings, because of a “great rise in positive social mood.” But the mood
changed in 2000 and the “trend toward negative social mood will lead to an
economic contraction,” according to Prechter. “Small bear markets lead to
recessions, big bear markets lead to depressions. The current bear market will
be the biggest in nearly 300 years, so the depression will be correspondingly
deep,” Prechter said.
Wall
St falls after weak outlooks drag (Reuters) U.S. stocks sagged in volatile
trading on Thursday after weak outlooks from technology companies and downbeat
comments from a Federal Reserve official gave investors little reason to buy.
Fed says some districts report slowing economy (Reuters)
Flaws of the European Stress Test … 'Bank stress test' became the magic phrase. Nothing calms fear
like a stress test that's labeled as rigorous. The stress test raises a few
very obvious questions: 1) Will it work? 2) Why was it needed in addition to a
$1 trillion aid package? 3) Is the stress test just a gimmick to appease
investors? The stress test is conducted by the London-based Committee of
European Banking Supervisors (CEBS). Ironically, the test has ignored the
majority of banks' holdings of sovereign debt. Sovereign debt concerns by the
so-called PIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain) triggered the
latest wave of financial problems. Ignoring sovereign debt in the Euro stress
test would be like ignoring toxic real estate assets in the U.S. 10%
Good - 90% Bad According to a Morgan Stanley survey, European banks hold about 90%
of their Greek government bonds in their banking books and 10% in their trading
books. The bonds in the banking book are generally held until maturity, the
bonds in the trading book are traded more frequently. According to a document
obtained by Bloomberg, the stress test assumes a loss of 23.1% on Greek debt,
14% on Portuguese bonds, 12.3% on Spanish debt, 4.7% on German debt, 10% on
U.K. debt, and 5.9% on French debt. However, the stress test only looks at the
bonds held in banks' trading books, which account for a mere 10% of Greek bond
holdings. Can that be called a stress test? Nouriel Roubini says that 'the
assumptions made about economic growth, about sovereign risk are not realistic
enough.' The fact that only seven banks failed the test with a combined
shortfall of $4.5 billion confirms the lax nature of the test. … The U.S. Bank Stress Test - A Nice Façade A closer look under the hood of
the U.S. bank stress test, however, shows that there's not much substance
behind the facade either. It was determined that the 19 tested U.S. banks need
to increase their balance sheets by $75 billion to meet the conditions of
what's termed the 'worst case scenario.' To a large extent, the $75 billion of
additional capital was financially engineered. Banks didn't have to actually
raise $75 billion. They were able to change the label of some of their assets
on their balance sheets. The government supported this practice via mandatory
convertible preferred shares (detailed analysis in May 2009 issue of the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter) …’
Moody's:
Regional banks on review for downgrade (AP)
Consumer
confidence dims (Reuters)
Job worries drove July U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest since
February, with one in six people expecting lower income in the next six months,
underscoring the precarious state of econo...
Global
steelmakers paint gloomy picture (Reuters)
US
bank failures in 2010 surpass 100
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. bank failures this year have surpassed a bleak
milestone of 100 as regulators shut down banks in Georgia, Florida, South
Carolina, Kansas, Nevada and Minnesota. The six bank seizures announced Friday
bring to 102 the failures so far in 2010. The pace of bank closures this year
is well ahead of that of last year, which saw a total 140 bank shuttered amid
the recession and mounting loan defaults …
On the Disconnect Between the Market and the Economy Michael Shulman:
(No recession helicopter ben) Bernanke Admits Major Policy Failures; Stocks Soar Darryl Montgomery What's wrong with this picture?
In his bi-annual testimony before Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke
admitted that after more than a year and a half of zero interest rates and $3
trillion in federal deficit spending since 2008, the best case
scenario for the U.S. economy is slow growth and high unemployment. The S&P
500 is up 2.5% so far this morning on this 'good' news. Bernanke's congressional testimony included the
following statements (emphasis added by me):
"Most [FOMC] participants viewed uncertainty
about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the
majority saw [at the June Fed meeting] the risks to growth as weighted to
the downside."
"Financial conditions--though much improved
since the depth of the financial crisis--have become less supportive of
economic growth in recent months."
"Many banks continue to have a large volume
of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight.
With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank
loans outstanding have continued to contract."
"After two years of job losses, private payrolls
expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this
year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially.
In all likelihood, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the
nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009."…
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Did Google Block “Barry
Soetoro” Search Term? Screenshots obtained by a Prison Planet reader suggest
that Google may have moved to de-list “Barry Soetoro” as a popular search term
shortly after it rose to the top of the Google Trends charts after yesterday’s
effort by radio talk show host Alex Jones to focus attention on Barack Obama’s real
name.
Pat Tillman’s Father To Army
Investigator: ‘F— You… And Yours’ There always was a dark
cinematic thread to the story of Pat Tillman: the football star imbued with
post-9/11 patriotism who was killed in a friendly-fire incident in the Afghan
mountains and the allegations of a massive bureaucratic cover-up involving the
highest levels of the U.S. Army in the wake of the tragedy.
Preparing
for World War III, Targeting Iran Humanity is at a dangerous crossroads.
War preparations to attack Iran are in “an advanced state of readiness”. Hi
tech weapons systems including nuclear warheads are fully deployed.
Pentagon tells WikiLeaks: "Do right thing" (Reuters) [Great
advice … if only the endless war, military complex based pentagon could take
it!] The Pentagon demanded on Thursday that whistle-blower web site WikiLeaks
immediately hand over about 15,000 secret Afghan war records it had not yet
published and erase material it had alrea…
Oliver
Stone has apologized for his anti-Semitic rant, but is the damage already done.
What damage? To perceived reality as opposed to reality? When you look at
america’s pro-israel, self-destructive, contra-indicated policies, including
the hands off policy vis-ŕ-vis fraudulent wall street, you see the truth to
what he says which is what so many astute individuals are already thinking /
realizing. How can people continue to ignore the truth, to their own detriment
Think about it. Do you really think he would risk the typical onslaught if the
same weren’t true? ‘Director Oliver
Stone has been forced to make a grovelling apology over an anti-Semitic
outburst. The double Academy Award winner claimed that the Russians suffered
more during the Second World War and that there was a Jewish 'domination of the
media'. Stone also said that Jews had '****ed up' U.S. foreign policy for years
and suggested the British supported Hitler ...’ The relentless attacks on Mel
Gibson are of the same caliber and purpose; suppression of truth!
WASHPOST
Ombudsman: Why Silence on Black Panther Story? (Washington Post) ‘Thursday's Post reported about a growing controversy
over the Justice
Department's decision to scale down a voter-intimidation case against members
of the New Black Panther Party. The story succinctly summarized the issues
but left many readers with a question: What took you so long? For months,
readers have contacted the ombudsman wondering why The Post hasn't been
covering the case. The calls increased recently after competitors such as the New
York Times and the Associated Press wrote stories. Fox News and right-wing
bloggers have been pumping the story. Liberal bloggers have countered, accusing
them of trying to manufacture a scandal. But The Post has been virtually
silent. The story has its origins on Election Day in 2008, when two members of
the New Black Panther Party stood in front of a Philadelphia polling place. YouTube
video of the men, now viewed nearly 1.5 million times, shows both wearing
paramilitary clothing. One carried a nightstick…’
Latino
KKK: You are too white to be American! ALIPAC | Tan
Klan woman can scream racist comments because the Obama administration and most
of the major news networks in America have her back.
Drudgereport:
NEW
LOW FOR O: USATODAYGALLUP HAS OBAMA APPROVE AT 41%...
America Is
'Bankrupt Mickey Mouse Economy'...
WIRE:
USA 'Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It'...
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT HITS
RECORD HIGH
JOBLESS
CLAIMS JUMP TO HIGHEST SINCE FEB...
California
can't pay bills -- may use IOUs for August payments...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
Homes
lost to foreclosure up 6% from last year...
Grim
Voter Mood Turns Grimmer...
Claims
of Afghan civilian deaths spark protest...
Military
sees heavier fighting in fall...
UPDATE:
Suspected serial killer arrested in Atlanta...
Attempting
to flee to israel … to be with kindred spirits ...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
MOB
RUSH FOR FED AID DRAWS RIOT POLICE
DOW drops
265...
Feds
rethink policies that encourage home ownership...
Obama: $3
Billion More in Aid for Unemployed...
US
posts widest trade gap in 20 months...
Q2 GDP Growth Could Be Revised To Just 1% After Trade Data...
PUMP:
FED TO BUY MORE DEBT...
DOWNGRADES
OUTLOOK...
US-backed
fighters in Iraq defect to al-Qaida... [Winning hearts and minds …
for Al Qaida … just one too many civilian deaths for no good reason at all ]
Republicans
Suggest Names for 'Second Stimulus' Bill...
'Where
do the bailouts end?' [I feel compelled to comment here that
even capital hill math would be hard-pressed to justify $26 billion taxpayer /
treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save 300,000 state / local
government jobs! After all, the nation is defacto bankrupt! ]
CASTRO
WARNS OF IMPENDING NUCLEAR HOLOCAUST
WELCOME
TO THE RECOVERY...
JULY
UNEMPLOYMENT -131,000 JOBS...
Revised: May/June -97,000 jobs than first reported...
Odd
mix of bad news...
CASTRO
WARNS OF IMPENDING NUCLEAR HOLOCAUST
Michelle
Obama 'modern-day Marie Antoinette'...
NYT:
'Leaves the taxpayers with a hefty bill'...
While
Obama preaches sacrifice, his family frolics in Spain...
Gazpacho,
turbot, veal and ratatouille with the king...
Lavish
Obama vacation in time of economic turmoil raises eyebrows...
BAKER:
'Leaves taxpayers with hefty bill'...
Hollywood
star-studded gala at first lady's luxury hotel...
MICHELLE
O'S $375,000 VACATION?!
Strolls Marbella after State Dept. 'racist' Spaniards gaffe...
White
House calling: Please will you make a coat for Michelle...
Boy
Scouts boo Obama...
GALLUP:
Blacks and Whites Continue to Differ Sharply on Obama...
JUDGE
KNOCKS DOWN MARRIAGE PROP IN CA
BLOW
TO O: MO SAYS NO
Voters
overwhelmingly rejected federal mandate to purchase health insurance...
Americans
swap passports; Desire to avoid tax leads some to renounce citizenship...
Ahmadinejad
survives blast near motorcade...
'Stupid
Zionists have hired mercenaries to assassinate me'...
FALTERING RECOVERY TRIPS DOLLAR...
GM,
FORD and CHRYSLER Sales All Lag Estimates...
Stimulus
Slammed: Republican Senators Release Report Alleging Waste...
The
100 worst stimulus projects...
SHOCK
VIDEO: DEM CONGRESSMAN BRAGS: 'FEDERAL GOVERNMENT CAN DO MOST ANYTHING IN THIS
COUNTRY'...
Deadliest Month Of Afghan War
Paper:
Will Washington's Failures Lead To Second American Revolution
Maxine
Waters faces trial over bank bailout funds...
HOT WATERS
Dems
Say Sorry, Charlie...
Democrats
Say Rangel Should Resign...
Obama:
Time For Rangel To End Career 'With Dignity'...
60,000 babies born to 'noncitizens' get U.S. birthright - in Texas
alone...
Dutch
become 1st NATO member to quit Afghanistan...
AP Business
Highlights ‘Jobs picture dims as
unemployment claims rise WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy is looking bleaker
as new applications for jobless benefits rose last week to the highest level in
almost six months. It's a sign that hiring remains weak and employers may be
going back to cutting their staffs. Analysts say the increase suggests
companies won't be adding enough workers in August to lower the 9.5 percent
unemployment rate. First-time claims for jobless benefits edged up by 2,000 to
a seasonally adjusted 484,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. That's the
highest total since February. Analysts had expected claims to fall…’
Bearish Sentiment Falls to 14-Week Low [Talk about contrarian indicators!] AAII – ‘Bullish sentiment rose
9.4 percentage points to 39.8% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Despite the
size of the increase, the proportion of individual investors expecting stock
prices to rise over the next six months is only at a two-week high. The
historical average is 39%. Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices
will stay essentially flat over the next six months, fell 1.3 percentage points
to 30.1%. The historical average is 31%. Bearish sentiment, expectations that
stock prices will fall, dropped 8.1 percentage points to 30.1%. This is a
14-week low. The historical average is 30%. The survey period, Thursday through
Wednesday, needs to be taken into consideration when looking at these results.
Stock prices were essentially flat through most of this week's survey period
(with the obvious exception of yesterday), giving some investors hope that a
short-term bottom had been established. Though there were big changes in
bullish and bearish sentiment, both optimism and pessimism are close to their
historical averages. As a result, I would argue that individual investors'
confidence in the market remains fragile. This week's special question asked AAII
Members which industries and sectors they like right now. Technology,
commodities/basic materials, and energy were the three most popular. Several
respondents also listed REITs and master limited partnerships (e.g., pipeline
companies), a sign that they are looking for dividend-paying investments. A
notable number also listed bonds and foreign stocks as preferred categories.
Three months ago, when we asked the same question, commodities/basic materials,
energy, gold/precious metals, and health care were the top choices.
This
week's AAII Sentiment Survey Results:
Long-term averages:
The survey and its results are
available online here.
Disclosure:
None’
Down in the Dumps Street: Dave's Daily ‘Is Wall Street now Dump Street? It
could happen. Just remember, with volume still light overall (even though
heavier on selling) the bulls still linger in the weeds ready to squeeze summer
bears. There remains little in the way of good news to comment. Perhaps we're
getting a little short-term oversold (check the NYMO at the end of this
commentary) making any spark of good news unleash the animal spirits once
again. Retail Sales? Consumer Sentiment? Friday the 13th ! A
Chucky the Consumer you can't kill sequel? How appropriate! Jobless Claims
continued to disappoint missing consensus estimates by nearly 20K for the
second straight week and Continuing Claims still are crawling along the ocean
floor along with BP's mess. Cisco's revenue miss was a disappointment and added
fuel to an early selloff. In this environment, everything must be perfect.
Volume was running about the same as over the past few sell-off days but still
higher than on previous positive days. Breadth continues to be negative.’
Options Action: Bearish Bet on the Market ‘During tumultuous times you want to protect your
portfolio but how should you do it? Brian Stutland has a strategy using the S&P
ETF He suggests selling
a call against a long position.
[$$] Prepping for a Data-Filled Friday ‘There were several folks out this morning
yelling to buy the dip (Jim Cramer was one of them), and traders who followed
that advice did pretty well. Rather than buying the dip, I used the initial
drop to escape some positions I thought were going to expire worthless, then I
used the bounce to lighten up more. Bears were able to get the SPDR back under
the $108.75 to $108.88 area, which I see as key right now. Another Friday and
I'm curious to see any impact from the weekly options. Will the big names be
stuck right around the strikes where they stand now? Unfortunately, the bigger
tech names are closer to their downward strikes than their higher strikes, so
that could pressure the market. One name that doesn't seem to care is Baidu. It
is right in between the $80 and $85 strike right now, so...’
Equities Update: Stocks Drop for Third Straight Session Midnight Trader 4:22 PM, Aug 12, 2010 – ‘
GLOBAL
SENTIMENT
UPSIDE MOVERS
(+) EXP upgraded.
(+) NVAX announces positive respiratory virus vaccine
study.
(+) RDEN costs cuts, higher revenue generate Q4
profit
(+) BKS Barnes & Noble nears deal with Ron Burkle
on board seats
DOWNSIDE MOVERS
(-) CSCO beats with earnings but revenue guidance
disappoints.
(-) BRCM downgraded.
(-) TXN downgraded.
(-) XLNX downgraded.
(-) BCS reports say job cuts may be announced.
(-) ALTR downgraded.
(-) MSFT downgraded.
(-) ARO downgrade.
(-) KSS declines after latest results.
(-) KBH says treasurer resigns.
(-) CRYP loss widens, misses Street view.
(-) HEAT beats earnings estimates.
MARKET
DIRECTION
Stock averages finish lower though pared the day's
losses late to close in the upper end of the session's range. It's the third
straight decline for the major averages and comes as Cisco's (CSCO)
outlook weighed on tech shares and an unexpected rise in jobless claims added
to the mounting signs of a weakening recovery.
Tech stocks were leading decliners and Cisco remained
down 9% late in the day, after disappointing revenue guidance. Sara Lee (SLE) also
missed with revenue and Kohl's (KSS) cut its earnings outlook.
Stocks also fell after the Labor Department reported
that the number of people filing for unemployment benefits rose last week to
484,000. The gain was small at 2,000, but economists had expected the number to
drop. The report was yet one more sign that the recovery is slowing.
Crude oil futures ended at a one-month low as concern
about the economic recovery remained, clouding hope that demand for oil would
pick up. Oil for September delivery lost $2.28, or 2.9%, to settle at $75.74 a
barrel, the lowest price since closing at $74.95 a barrel on July 12.
In company news:
Actively traded Cisco (CSCO)
fell after the tech bellwether late Wednesday reported Q4 sales of $10.8 bln,
in line with Street estimates of $10.8 bln. Non-GAAP EPS was $0.43 per share, a
penny better than the Street view. In its conference call, CSCO said it expects
Q1 revenue to be up 18% to 20% year-over-year, less than Wall Street was hoping
for. Gross margin is seen at about 64%. Cash flow from operations are estimated
at $1.2 to $1.5 billion for Q1.
In its conference call, CSCO said it expects Q1
revenue to be up 18% to 20% year-over-year, less than Wall Street was hoping
for. Gross margin is seen at about 64%. Cash flow from operations are estimated
at $1.2 to $1.5 billion for Q1.
Juniper Networks (JNPR)
slumped as Cisco warned that customers were becoming more cautious in the weak
economy. In a note to clients, Wedbush Morgan analyst Rohit Chopra stated that
Cisco's concerns "could potentially have negative implications for
Juniper." The stock was also downgraded this morning.
Kohl's (KSS) reports Q2 EPS of $0.84 compared to $0.75 a year
earlier and beating the Thomson Reuters mean analyst estimate for $0.82 by two
cents. Net sales were $4.1 billion, an increase of 7.7% for the quarter.
Comparable store sales for the quarter increased 4.6%.
For Q3, the company expects total sales to increase
between 4.5% and 6.5%; comparable store sales to increase 2% to 4%; and gross
margin as a percent of sales to increase 20 to 40 basis points over last year.
EPS are put at $0.57 to $0.63. The Street expects $0.74.
For Q4, the company expects total sales to increase
between 4.5% and 6.5%; comparable store sales to increase 2% to 4%; and gross
margin as a percent of sales to increase 20 to 40 basis points over last year.
EPS are put at $1.51 to $1.59. The Street expects $1.56. The company's updated
guidance for fiscal 2010 is $3.57 to $3.70 per diluted share. Analysts on
average look for $3.75.
Sara Lee Corp (SLE) fell
after its 2011 earnings projection disapointed investors, even though it
returned to the black in the fourth quarter. The food manufacturer anticipates
earnings for the current fiscal year to fall between 93 cents and $1.02 a share
on revenue of $11.2 billion to $11.5 billion. Analysts polled by Thomson
Reuters expected earnings of 94 cents on revenue of $11.0 billion.
Barnes & Noble (BKS)
is near an agreement with billionaire Ron Burkle in which the bookstore chain
will give him three board seats in exchange for dropping his lawsuit over
limits on his stake in the company, according to Bloomberg, citing two people
with knowledge of the matter. Burkle, along with his investment entity, will
likely support a sale of the bookstore chain, the report said, citing the
sources.
CVS Caremark (CVS) is cutting
prices for some of its Medicare services in a bid to regain business it has
lost to rival firms, Bloomberg reported. CVS bids every year on the right to
provide drugs to Americans covered by Medicare Part D. The results for the 2011
contracts are due later this month, the report said.
Pharmasset (VRUS)
said its experimental drug for treatment of chronic hepatitis C infection was
given the "fast track" designation from the Food and Drug Administration,
according to Reuters report. In May, the drug showed short-term antiviral
activity, according to the report. Fast track Status is the category given to a
drug that treats unmet medical needs.
Novavax (NVAX) said results from a pre-clinical toxicology
study of its vaccine candidate to prevent respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)
showed the vaccine to be safe and well-tolerated at all doses tested.’
Fed Leads America “To The Brink
Of Collapse” When even the New York Times and CNN are admitting that the
United States faces not only a double-dip recession but potentially a new great
depression, any alarm bells that have not been rung should now be sounding loudly.
Bailouts Went To Foreign Banks:
Congressional Report Confirms What We Already Knew A Congressional Oversight
Panel issued today highlights the fact that large portions of the Treasury’s
$700 billion bailout fund have gone straight into the coffers of foreign banks,
a fact that we knew months ago, but is only now being officially recognised.
Marc Faber: Protect Your
Property with High Voltage Fences, Barbed Wire, Booby Traps, Military Weapons
and Dobermans Investment guru and publisher of The Gloom, Boom and Doom
report, Marc Faber, regularly discusses investment strategies for protecting
and building wealth during times of economic distress.
U.S.
trade deficit startles markets (Washington Post) [ Unexpectedly? I don’t
think so! And, I have my site, other references / links and posts to prove it;
and, what’s more, I’m not alone. After all, what are NAFTAs for anyway. However,
I also must candidly admit I don’t frequent the mainstream blather / propaganda
that includes the ‘money-honeys’ (when the messenger’s more important than the
message, problems and distortions are bound to follow) and their ilk, etc.. NBR’s about it and even they have their pressures (I
don’t consider the Washington Post mainstream in the pejorative sense of the
word, with a rich journalistic history to back that up, all things considered)
]. Unexpectedly bad news from three continents reinforces fears that global
recovery is faltering.
Obama signs $26 billion jobs
bill (WP) [I feel compelled to
comment here that even using capital hill math one would be hard-pressed to
justify $26 billion taxpayer / treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save
300,000 state / local government jobs! After all, the nation is defacto
bankrupt! I think the former Soviet Union would have done the same.]
Fed action signals new activism (Washington
Post) [ Riiiiight! The activist fed! That’s all we need. As if we needed more
of what brought us to this point! Certainly the fed’s role in the continuing
and current financial crisis / debacle cannot be ignored or disputed. Nothing
like a hegelian methodology to create
the very problems for which they are called upon to offer solutions, increasing
their sense of importance, and concentrating power thereby. (Think about it. It
is really rather quite absurd that each meeting time the financial markets hold
their bated breath for these incompetent boobs). Then there’s the cover-up with
an opportunity for enrichment of some, usually the tight-lipped yes-men then
ever after and forever bonded in what becomes tantamount to an almost fraternal
link by ‘virtue’ of the crime thereby. No, I’m not saying their initial
missteps were necessarily badly intended, but the manipulations thereafter to
obfuscate their incompetence (senile greenspun, no-recession-helicopter-ben,
etc.) comes at a great price and is nothing less than tantamount to or just
outright crime. I’d abolish the fed without hesitation or compunction. After
all, at this point of decline and defacto bankruptcy of the nation you
certainly can’t point to success nor argue their indispensability. Then there’s
also the missing trillions, over-printing of fiat currency, and all that sub
rosa activity with the worthless fraudulent toxic paper which I believe is
being supplanted with ultimately hard currency to the great benefit of the
frauds and great detriment to the nation.]
ACCORDING TO TECHNICAL INDICATORS, MELTDOWN IS
POSSIBLE A
SOLID TRACK RECORD An analysis
of the SMA crossover buy/sell signals triggered for the S&P over the past
10 days shows that six of the eight signals (75%) were correct. ..LAGGING
BUT ACCURATE Many dismiss
the 200-day or other SMAs as lagging indicators. Although an indicator may be
lagging it doesn't mean it's incorrect or should be dismissed… Even though a
lagging indicator, the rain does confirm that a storm is coming. A
PRO-ACTIVE APPROACH You'd expect Wall Street and the
financial media to be the financial weather man and warn you of upcoming
storms. Unfortunately, that is not so. Leading up to the April 2010 recovery
highs, Wall Street and the media proclaimed the skies are clear, 'sunny
throughout the year' was their weather forecast. Only after investors got
drenched, did Wall Street recommend pulling out the umbrella. Sure enough, as
soon as the umbrellas came out, stocks switched into rally mode and the sky
cleared up. Unlike Wall Street, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned of
the brewing storm while it was still sunny. On April 16, the newsletter warned
that 'historically, there has rarely been a more pronounced sell signal ...
When consumers spend, they do so with credit cards. Visa and Master Card both
got hit with a death cross. It's just a matter of time until the discretionary
sector follows. WAIT, THERE IS MORE …High copper
prices are reflective of high demand and a humming economy. Lower copper prices
signal trouble ahead. On June 22, an ominous death cross visited copper's
chart. PUTTING THE ODDS IN YOUR FAVOR Investing is
a game of probabilities. While you always want to have the odds in your favor,
you never want to bet against the odds. Right now, the odds are piling up on
the bearish side of the ledger. Even though Wall Street is saying that the sky
has cleared up, 'meteorologists' with a better track record are warning of the
storm ahead. In fact, there is one rare chart formation that strongly suggests
the onset of a 2008-like decline, a development that's certainly supported by
the number of death crosses spanning a variety of markets. The August issue of
the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter includes a detailed short, mid and
long-term forecast, along with the one chart that tells the market's story and
true bearish potential.
Californians’ income falls for
first time since WWII Sacramento
Bee | The personal incomes of
Golden State workers fell by that amount in 2009 compared with the previous
year.
Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the internet along
with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously opposed same
and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and verizon as
mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc., operatives
at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went
public today with their “policy framework” — better known as the pact to end
the Internet as we know it.
DRUDGEREPORT:
America Is
'Bankrupt Mickey Mouse Economy'...
WIRE:
USA 'Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It'...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT HITS
RECORD HIGH
JOBLESS
CLAIMS JUMP TO HIGHEST SINCE FEB...
California
can't pay bills -- may use IOUs for August payments...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
Homes
lost to foreclosure up 6% from last year...
Grim
Voter Mood Turns Grimmer...
Claims
of Afghan civilian deaths spark protest...
Military
sees heavier fighting in fall...
UPDATE:
Suspected serial killer arrested in Atlanta...
Attempting
to flee to israel … to be with kindred spirits ...
MOB
RUSH FOR FED AID DRAWS RIOT POLICE
DOW drops
265...
Feds
rethink policies that encourage home ownership...
Obama: $3
Billion More in Aid for Unemployed...
US
posts widest trade gap in 20 months...
Q2 GDP Growth Could Be Revised To Just 1% After Trade Data...
PUMP:
FED TO BUY MORE DEBT...
DOWNGRADES
OUTLOOK...
US-backed
fighters in Iraq defect to al-Qaida... [Winning hearts and minds …
for Al Qaida … just one too many civilian deaths for no good reason at all ]
Republicans
Suggest Names for 'Second Stimulus' Bill...
'Where
do the bailouts end?' [I feel compelled to comment here that
even capital hill math would be hard-pressed to justify $26 billion taxpayer /
treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save 300,000 state / local
government jobs! After all, the nation is defacto bankrupt! ]
Gerald Celente On the Alex
Jones Show: Double Dip Depression Will Lead Us Into War The white shoe boys are
taking us into the worst depression in history.
Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the internet along
with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously opposed same
and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and verizon as
mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc., operatives
at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went
public today with their “policy framework” — better known as the pact to end
the Internet as we know it.
Economists
Herald New Great Depression The world is
currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression,
according to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others
now forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.
Riiiiight! That ‘no-longer looking’ dynamic that saves the day and the ue rate
at 9.5%. At this rate of progress, and according to their thinking and
manipulations, full employment at an unprecedented 0% unemployment is just
around the corner as everyone stops looking for the jobs no longer here, many
of which were sent overseas and which are not coming back owing to substantial
economic structural / financial shifts.
Jobs Report: Companies Slow to Hire ABC
News - Only about 8 percent of the 8.4 million jobs lost at the
peak of the recession have been recovered, leaving millions of Americans still
looking for work, according to an analysis by ABC News' Business Unit. Video: News Update: US
Unemployment Rate Holds at 9.5%, 71,000 Jobs Added in June SmarTrend News 71K more jobs not enough to dent unemployment rate The Associated Press
When perusing the headlines and the
following, I immediately thought ‘between Iraq and a hard place (Afghanistan
and america’s defacto bankruptcy)’:
Between a Rock and a Hard Place Jerry Slusiewicz ‘Everyone knows that being between a rock
and a hard place is not a good place to be. That is where the market is right
now. We continue to have terrible news in the housing sector. There is no
general economic recovery as of yet. Jobless claims continue to mount, while
net new jobs are not being created in a significant enough number to even
sustain the population growth (approximately 150,000 net new jobs per month
needed). By far the majority of economic reports for May, June, July, and now
August, have been worse than forecast. That includes home starts, home sales,
home-builder confidence, retail sales, auto sales, consumer confidence, durable
goods orders, manufacturing, jobs, etc. Yet the market rallies or barely goes
down on these bad reports. What gives? It seems that bad news is good news
right now…
Stepping Aside Because I Can Always
Buy Back In Leigh Drogen ‘I sold
out of everything this morning, for a few reasons…First, breakouts don’t always
work and momentum stocks have a habit of ending their trends abruptly.
Second, …I can buy back in this afternoon if I change my mind (not likely). I
see more risk to the downside here than I do to the upside. …Third, the jobs
number tomorrow scares me. No, it doesn’t matter what the number is, we all
know it’s going to be bad, what matters is how the market reacts, and I have
the feel it’s not going to be good. Fourth, many of my oscillators are overbought
here.Fifth, and finally, I don’t like the fact that this rally has primarily
taken place on the back of the most beaten down sectors. …It all just doesn’t
pass the smell test for me. I’ve been successful at this not because I’m always
right, but because I know when I’m wrong and I’m willing to change course or
step aside. Right now, I’ll step aside.’
Were Unemployment Claims Really So 'Unexpected'?
WE’RE UNDERESTIMATING THE BEARISH POTENTIAL , August 3, 2010
’… Will Anything Stop the Market? Something Did
… At the same
time, the April numbers were lowered the second time by an additional 24,000
units, while May sales were revised lower by 33,000 units. To summarize, April
and May sales were reduced by 57,000 units. Therefore, June sales were 24%
above May sales. By the way, May sales were the lowest on record…
Temporary
Firehouse Closures Begin In Philadelphia CBS
3 | The
city of Philadelphia has started temporarily closing fire stations in order to
balance its budget.
Warning
Signs Suggest Market Headed for Another Collapse … One can find no shortage of fundamental or
mechanical theories explaining what might form the basis of a future financial
collapse published at Zero Hedge, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Nouriel Roubini or
Karl Denninger. In fact, I buy into a lot of the evidence presented by these
sources, and believe that one gains a better grasp of financial reality
spending 10 minutes with Zero Hedge than spending 2 weeks listening to the
mainstream financial media. It is laughable to compare the vacant drivel coming
out of Dennis Kneale to even one single article published by Tyler Durden or
Ryan Iskander…
1. HEAD &
SHOULDERS ON THE S&P 500, DOW JONES, AND NASDAQ …
2. BULLISH FLAG ON
THE VIX? We can’t have a massive spike in volatility without a coinciding
collapse in the equity markets …
3.
THE DEATH-CROSS ON THE S&P SUGGESTS THE 2009 TO 2010 RALLY MIGHT BE OVER
…
4. THE VOLUMELESS
RALLY & MUTUAL FUND OUTFLOWS
…
5. 1,000 POINT FLASH
CRASHES
…
6. BOND MARKET
DISTRUSTFUL OF THE RALLY
…
7. MARKET LEADERSHIP
IS WEAKENING
[chart] … ‘
Stocks' Late Push: Some
Optimism, Some Pessimism [Late
push … as in a constipated bowel movement … Come on! Another one of those push
the computer programmed trade button and off we go, reality / valuation /
economics be damned. In real security analysis (very simplified / summarized),
as opposed to the continued frauds on wall street, one must begin with the
largest and most significant aggregate (a simple word picture / analogy:
‘rising tide lifts all boats’). If you get this right, the probabilities in
your favor are substantially enhanced. From there, you want leading industries,
and leading companies within said leading industries (again, larger aggregates
then picks, to enhance probabilities, not guarantees, in your favor). Your time
frame, 1-3-5 yrs tops for projections, (including income statement/EPS, balance
sheet, and applying an appropriate P/E – a detailed, multi-faceted approach
beyond what could be described in this summary); and, that’s all they are,
projections. Beyond that time frame, your guess. On fraudulent wall street,
every day, though already discounted in large part (6-8 mos, approx.), the
market spins, churns, and with lightning fast computerized high-frequency trade
programs commissions in huge volumes like no other time in financial history
when real valuation meant something, with no net economic value added, but very
lucrative to the frauds on wall street, which ultimately is a net detriment to
the economy / the nation /and other industries as we’ve seen and as described
elsewhere on this site and in these posts http://albertpeia.com . Preposterously, they
even sometimes refer to seasonal factors as if hearing them for the first time
and ‘explaining’ an up move (almost invariably already discounted). Today, they
shrugged off the deepening economic reality despite the election year frothing
/ manipulations. This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market
in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in
a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline,
economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the wall
street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement
imposed. ].
Slowing economic rebound raises
unemployment fears (AP) [Wow! Talk about understatements!]
Marc Faber Questions if Dow
Could Hit 1,000 In the August edition of the ‘The Gloom, Boom
& Doom Report’ Marc Faber questions whether the Dow could hit 1,000 as predicted by Robert Prechter, based
on his interpretation of Elliot Waves, Fibonacci numbers and socioeconomic
trends. Prechter, who has written 13
books on finance (external link), believes
that the stock market is historically overvalued in terms of dividends and
earnings, because of a “great rise in positive social mood.” But the mood
changed in 2000 and the “trend toward negative social mood will lead to an
economic contraction,” according to Prechter. “Small bear markets lead to
recessions, big bear markets lead to depressions. The current bear market will
be the biggest in nearly 300 years, so the depression will be correspondingly
deep,” Prechter said.
Wall
St falls after weak outlooks drag (Reuters) U.S. stocks sagged in volatile
trading on Thursday after weak outlooks from technology companies and downbeat
comments from a Federal Reserve official gave investors little reason to buy.
Fed says some districts report slowing economy (Reuters)
Flaws of the European Stress Test … 'Bank stress test' became the magic phrase. Nothing calms fear
like a stress test that's labeled as rigorous. The stress test raises a few
very obvious questions: 1) Will it work? 2) Why was it needed in addition to a
$1 trillion aid package? 3) Is the stress test just a gimmick to appease
investors? The stress test is conducted by the London-based Committee of
European Banking Supervisors (CEBS). Ironically, the test has ignored the
majority of banks' holdings of sovereign debt. Sovereign debt concerns by the
so-called PIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain) triggered the
latest wave of financial problems. Ignoring sovereign debt in the Euro stress
test would be like ignoring toxic real estate assets in the U.S. 10%
Good - 90% Bad According to a Morgan Stanley survey, European banks hold about 90%
of their Greek government bonds in their banking books and 10% in their trading
books. The bonds in the banking book are generally held until maturity, the
bonds in the trading book are traded more frequently. According to a document
obtained by Bloomberg, the stress test assumes a loss of 23.1% on Greek debt,
14% on Portuguese bonds, 12.3% on Spanish debt, 4.7% on German debt, 10% on
U.K. debt, and 5.9% on French debt. However, the stress test only looks at the
bonds held in banks' trading books, which account for a mere 10% of Greek bond
holdings. Can that be called a stress test? Nouriel Roubini says that 'the
assumptions made about economic growth, about sovereign risk are not realistic
enough.' The fact that only seven banks failed the test with a combined
shortfall of $4.5 billion confirms the lax nature of the test. … The U.S. Bank Stress Test - A Nice Façade A closer look under the hood of
the U.S. bank stress test, however, shows that there's not much substance
behind the facade either. It was determined that the 19 tested U.S. banks need
to increase their balance sheets by $75 billion to meet the conditions of
what's termed the 'worst case scenario.' To a large extent, the $75 billion of
additional capital was financially engineered. Banks didn't have to actually
raise $75 billion. They were able to change the label of some of their assets
on their balance sheets. The government supported this practice via mandatory
convertible preferred shares (detailed analysis in May 2009 issue of the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter) …’
Moody's:
Regional banks on review for downgrade (AP)
Consumer
confidence dims (Reuters)
Job worries drove July U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest since
February, with one in six people expecting lower income in the next six months,
underscoring the precarious state of econo...
Global
steelmakers paint gloomy picture (Reuters)
US
bank failures in 2010 surpass 100
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. bank failures this year have surpassed a bleak
milestone of 100 as regulators shut down banks in Georgia, Florida, South
Carolina, Kansas, Nevada and Minnesota. The six bank seizures announced Friday
bring to 102 the failures so far in 2010. The pace of bank closures this year
is well ahead of that of last year, which saw a total 140 bank shuttered amid
the recession and mounting loan defaults …
On the Disconnect Between the Market and the Economy Michael Shulman:
(No recession helicopter ben) Bernanke Admits Major Policy Failures; Stocks Soar Darryl Montgomery What's wrong with this picture?
In his bi-annual testimony before Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke
admitted that after more than a year and a half of zero interest rates and $3
trillion in federal deficit spending since 2008, the best case
scenario for the U.S. economy is slow growth and high unemployment. The S&P
500 is up 2.5% so far this morning on this 'good' news. Bernanke's congressional testimony included the
following statements (emphasis added by me):
"Most [FOMC] participants viewed uncertainty
about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the
majority saw [at the June Fed meeting] the risks to growth as weighted to
the downside."
"Financial conditions--though much improved
since the depth of the financial crisis--have become less supportive of
economic growth in recent months."
"Many banks continue to have a large volume
of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight.
With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank
loans outstanding have continued to contract."
"After two years of job losses, private payrolls
expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this
year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially.
In all likelihood, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the
nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009."…
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Did Google Block “Barry
Soetoro” Search Term? Screenshots obtained by a Prison Planet reader suggest
that Google may have moved to de-list “Barry Soetoro” as a popular search term
shortly after it rose to the top of the Google Trends charts after yesterday’s
effort by radio talk show host Alex Jones to focus attention on Barack Obama’s
real name.
Preparing
for World War III, Targeting Iran Humanity is at a dangerous crossroads.
War preparations to attack Iran are in “an advanced state of readiness”. Hi
tech weapons systems including nuclear warheads are fully deployed.
Pentagon tells WikiLeaks: "Do right thing" (Reuters) [Great
advice … if only the endless war, military complex based pentagon could take
it!] The Pentagon demanded on Thursday that whistle-blower web site WikiLeaks
immediately hand over about 15,000 secret Afghan war records it had not yet
published and erase material it had alrea…
Oliver
Stone has apologized for his anti-Semitic rant, but is the damage already done.
What damage? To perceived reality as opposed to reality? When you look at
america’s pro-israel, self-destructive, contra-indicated policies, including
the hands off policy vis-ŕ-vis fraudulent wall street, you see the truth to
what he says which is what so many astute individuals are already thinking /
realizing. How can people continue to ignore the truth, to their own detriment
Think about it. Do you really think he would risk the typical onslaught if the
same weren’t true? ‘Director Oliver
Stone has been forced to make a grovelling apology over an anti-Semitic
outburst. The double Academy Award winner claimed that the Russians suffered
more during the Second World War and that there was a Jewish 'domination of the
media'. Stone also said that Jews had '****ed up' U.S. foreign policy for years
and suggested the British supported Hitler ...’ The relentless attacks on Mel
Gibson are of the same caliber and purpose; suppression of truth!
WASHPOST
Ombudsman: Why Silence on Black Panther Story? (Washington Post) ‘Thursday's Post reported about a growing
controversy over the Justice
Department's decision to scale down a voter-intimidation case against members
of the New Black Panther Party. The story succinctly summarized the issues
but left many readers with a question: What took you so long? For months,
readers have contacted the ombudsman wondering why The Post hasn't been
covering the case. The calls increased recently after competitors such as the
New York Times and the Associated Press wrote stories. Fox News and right-wing
bloggers have been pumping the story. Liberal bloggers have countered, accusing
them of trying to manufacture a scandal. But The Post has been virtually
silent. The story has its origins on Election Day in 2008, when two members of
the New Black Panther Party stood in front of a Philadelphia polling place. YouTube
video of the men, now viewed nearly 1.5 million times, shows both wearing
paramilitary clothing. One carried a nightstick…’
Latino
KKK: You are too white to be American! ALIPAC | Tan
Klan woman can scream racist comments because the Obama administration and most
of the major news networks in America have her back.
Drudgereport:
NEW
LOW FOR O: USATODAYGALLUP HAS OBAMA APPROVE AT 41%...
America Is
'Bankrupt Mickey Mouse Economy'...
WIRE:
USA 'Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It'...
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT HITS
RECORD HIGH
JOBLESS
CLAIMS JUMP TO HIGHEST SINCE FEB...
California
can't pay bills -- may use IOUs for August payments...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
Homes
lost to foreclosure up 6% from last year...
Grim
Voter Mood Turns Grimmer...
Claims
of Afghan civilian deaths spark protest...
Military
sees heavier fighting in fall...
UPDATE:
Suspected serial killer arrested in Atlanta...
Attempting
to flee to israel … to be with kindred spirits ...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
MOB
RUSH FOR FED AID DRAWS RIOT POLICE
DOW drops
265...
Feds
rethink policies that encourage home ownership...
Obama: $3
Billion More in Aid for Unemployed...
US
posts widest trade gap in 20 months...
Q2 GDP Growth Could Be Revised To Just 1% After Trade Data...
PUMP:
FED TO BUY MORE DEBT...
DOWNGRADES
OUTLOOK...
US-backed
fighters in Iraq defect to al-Qaida... [Winning hearts and minds …
for Al Qaida … just one too many civilian deaths for no good reason at all ]
Republicans
Suggest Names for 'Second Stimulus' Bill...
'Where
do the bailouts end?' [I feel compelled to comment here that
even capital hill math would be hard-pressed to justify $26 billion taxpayer /
treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save 300,000 state / local
government jobs! After all, the nation is defacto bankrupt! ]
CASTRO
WARNS OF IMPENDING NUCLEAR HOLOCAUST
WELCOME
TO THE RECOVERY...
JULY
UNEMPLOYMENT -131,000 JOBS...
Revised: May/June -97,000 jobs than first reported...
Odd
mix of bad news...
CASTRO
WARNS OF IMPENDING NUCLEAR HOLOCAUST
Michelle
Obama 'modern-day Marie Antoinette'...
NYT:
'Leaves the taxpayers with a hefty bill'...
While
Obama preaches sacrifice, his family frolics in Spain...
Gazpacho,
turbot, veal and ratatouille with the king...
Lavish
Obama vacation in time of economic turmoil raises eyebrows...
BAKER:
'Leaves taxpayers with hefty bill'...
Hollywood
star-studded gala at first lady's luxury hotel...
MICHELLE
O'S $375,000 VACATION?!
Strolls Marbella after State Dept. 'racist' Spaniards gaffe...
White
House calling: Please will you make a coat for Michelle...
Boy
Scouts boo Obama...
GALLUP:
Blacks and Whites Continue to Differ Sharply on Obama...
JUDGE
KNOCKS DOWN MARRIAGE PROP IN CA
BLOW
TO O: MO SAYS NO
Voters
overwhelmingly rejected federal mandate to purchase health insurance...
Americans
swap passports; Desire to avoid tax leads some to renounce citizenship...
Ahmadinejad
survives blast near motorcade...
'Stupid
Zionists have hired mercenaries to assassinate me'...
FALTERING RECOVERY TRIPS DOLLAR...
GM,
FORD and CHRYSLER Sales All Lag Estimates...
Stimulus
Slammed: Republican Senators Release Report Alleging Waste...
The
100 worst stimulus projects...
SHOCK
VIDEO: DEM CONGRESSMAN BRAGS: 'FEDERAL GOVERNMENT CAN DO MOST ANYTHING IN THIS
COUNTRY'...
Deadliest Month Of Afghan War
Paper:
Will Washington's Failures Lead To Second American Revolution
Maxine
Waters faces trial over bank bailout funds...
HOT WATERS
Dems
Say Sorry, Charlie...
Democrats
Say Rangel Should Resign...
Obama:
Time For Rangel To End Career 'With Dignity'...
60,000 babies born to 'noncitizens' get U.S. birthright - in Texas
alone...
Dutch
become 1st NATO member to quit Afghanistan...
ACCORDING TO TECHNICAL INDICATORS, MELTDOWN IS
POSSIBLE , On Wednesday
August 11, 2010, 4:40 pm EDT Smart investors look at the risk/reward ratio before
investing and periodically re-evaluate. Who wants to hitch his wagon to a
losing horse? Would you buy a stock that has a 70% probability of losing
money? Would you hold a stock that has a 70% probability of losing money? The
answer is so obvious that you might assume it's only a rhetorical question.
It's not. In fact, anyone invested in stocks (NYSEArca: VTI - News) right now is running a 70%+ risk of
losing money over the coming weeks and months. That's a bold statement, so
allow me to back up and explain why. A
TECHNICALLY SICK MARKET On July 2, 2010, the 50-day simple moving
average (SMA) for the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) crossed below the 200-day SMA for
the first time since December 12, 2007. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI:
^DJI) followed on July 6, theNasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) on July 14, and the
broadest measure of the U.S.stock market, formerly known as Wilshire 5000, on July
8. The 200-day SMA is perceived to be the dividing line between a stock or
index that is technically healthy and one that is not. When the price drops
below the 200-day SMA, a red flag is raised. When the 50-day SMA drops below
the 200-day SMA, a clear break of a trend is signaled. Throughout the recent
rally, the S&P's 50-day SMA remained below the 200-day SMA. Even though the
S&P has spent most of the past three months trading below its 200-day SMA,
the index has flirted with and stayed above the 200-day SMA since late July.
Today is fell cleanly below the 200-day SMA. A brief pop above the 200-day SMA
does not invalidate the larger down trend. On July 26, the ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter noted that 'it is not uncommon for counter trend rallies of larger
degree to persuade even technical indicators to move into bullish territory.
This would most likely stir up the kind of bullish sentiment often seen at
secondary tops.' A SOLID TRACK RECORD An analysis
of the SMA crossover buy/sell signals triggered for the S&P over the past
10 days shows that six of the eight signals (75%) were correct. The average
winning trade returned 19.72%, the average losing trade returned 6.95% (see
table below). A 75% probability of success with a risk reward ratio of nearly 2.8:1
is about as good as it gets in the investing world. [chart] If we expand the
track record to include the 10/40-week SMA crossover, which was triggered as
well for all the above-mentioned indexes, we get a 70% probability of success
along with a risk reward ratio of 3.7:1. If we expand the time horizon from a
10/40-week SMA to a 10/40-month SMA, we get a track record of 100% with an
average return per trade of 17.68% (detailed analysis available in the August
ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter). Interestingly, the longer-term 10/40-month SMA
did not trigger a buy signal in 2009, unlike the 10/40-week SMA and the
50/200-day SMA. LAGGING BUT ACCURATE Many dismiss the 200-day or other SMAs
as lagging indicators. Although an indicator may be lagging it doesn't mean
it's incorrect or should be dismissed. To illustrate, imagine a beautiful sunny
day, with no clouds in the sky. Even though it seems impossible at the time,
the weather man sees a storm coming your way. A few hours later, clouds are
moving in and the breeze is picking up. Just shortly thereafter, the first
raindrops are hitting the ground. Would you go out and fire up the BBQ after
the first raindrops fell? No, the raindrops only confirm the weatherman's
prediction. In fact, you might liken the raindrops to the SMA crossover. Even
though a lagging indicator, the rain does confirm that a storm is coming. A
PRO-ACTIVE APPROACH You'd expect Wall Street and the
financial media to be the financial weather man and warn you of upcoming
storms. Unfortunately, that is not so. Leading up to the April 2010 recovery
highs, Wall Street and the media proclaimed the skies are clear, 'sunny
throughout the year' was their weather forecast. Only after investors got
drenched, did Wall Street recommend pulling out the umbrella. Sure enough, as
soon as the umbrellas came out, stocks switched into rally mode and the sky
cleared up. Unlike Wall Street, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned of
the brewing storm while it was still sunny. On April 16, the newsletter warned
that 'historically, there has rarely been a more pronounced sell signal. The
combination of sentiment extremes clearly point towards a correction. The
upside potential is much more limited compared to the massive downside risk.'
Shortly thereafter, the S&P dropped over 17% from its April 26 high at
1,219 to its July 1 low at 1,011. On July 5, with the S&P 500 futures at
1,003, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted that 'the S&P is butting
against the 100-week SMA, lower accelerations band, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
levels, round number resistance at 1,000, and weekly s1 at 994, there is a good
chance we will see some sort of a bounce develop from the 990 - 1,015 area.'
This bounce has certainly developed. In fact, the market rallied over 8%. Has
this rally changed the outlook? No. Not only do the major indexes bear the mark
of the death cross, the following sectors do also: Financial sector (NYSEArca: XLF - News), technology sector (NYSEArca: XLK - News), consumer staples sector (NYSEArca:XLP - News), energy sector (NYSEArca: XLE - News), materials sector (NYSEArca: XLB - News), utilities sector (NYSEArca: XLU - News), industrials (NYSEArca: XLI - News) and healthcare sector (NYSEArca: XLV -News) all share the same fate. The consumer
discretionary sector (NYSEArca: XLY - News) is the only sector to escape the grip of
the death cross thus far. It is somewhat surprising and unusual to see the
economically sensitive consumer discretionary sector buck against a
recessionary trend. A look at Visa and Master Card provides a peak for what
lies ahead, even for the discretionary sector. When consumers spend, they do so
with credit cards. Visa and Master Card both got hit with a death cross. It's
just a matter of time until the discretionary sector follows. WAIT,
THERE IS MORE Dr. Copper is the only metal with a PhD. This
sounds corny, but as an industrial metal that's used in everything from houses
to tech gadgets, copper has an uncanny ability to foretell the future for
stocks. High copper prices are reflective of high demand and a humming economy.
Lower copper prices signal trouble ahead. On June 22, an ominous death cross
visited copper's chart. PUTTING THE ODDS IN YOUR FAVOR
Investing is a game of probabilities. While you always want to
have the odds in your favor, you never want to bet against the odds. Right now,
the odds are piling up on the bearish side of the ledger. Even though Wall
Street is saying that the sky has cleared up, 'meteorologists' with a better
track record are warning of the storm ahead. In fact, there is one rare chart
formation that strongly suggests the onset of a 2008-like decline, a development
that's certainly supported by the number of death crosses spanning a variety of
markets. The August issue of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter includes a detailed short, mid and
long-term forecast, along with the one chart that tells the market's story and
true bearish potential.
Beatdown Wednesday: Why It Was
Neither a Big Deal Nor a Surprise
‘The market took a nose dive today and volume was elevated. Additionally,
decliners creamed advancers by 10 to 1. While the bears dominated the market,
today's action was neither a big deal, nor a surprise.My readers knew two
things going into the week. First, strong resistance was at 1130 and strong
support was at 1085. Until SPX traded outside either price, the market was to
be trapped. This has been the stance since July 20th, and I favored an upside
breakout. Last month 1130 was our big number to watch on the upside. If it
broke on high volume we were going to get aggressively long. After SPX found
support at 1085 in July, that became our price to watch for support. If support
breaks the chance, a major decline becomes highly likely. Until 1085 breaks
down, I continue to be bias towards an upside break. Second, the dollar was up
against strong support and highly oversold. I expected that a strong bounce was
close. A rising dollar is bearish for the market, especially commodities, and
it would take the SPX back down to the 1085 support zone.Cisco (CSCO) reported tonight and is selling hard in
the after hours. Also, the euro put in a topping pattern yesterday and should
see more selling ... WATCH LIST Our watch list was lower today, similar to
the market.We updated our bearish watch list now that a market collapse is
definitively back on the table. Leading the way lower was our top shorts in
solar and Capella (CPLA) in
the for profit education industry. DISCLOSURE: None’
Californians’ income falls for
first time since WWII Sacramento
Bee | The personal incomes of
Golden State workers fell by that amount in 2009 compared with the previous
year.
Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the internet along
with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously opposed same
and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and verizon as
mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc., operatives
at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went
public today with their “policy framework” — better known as the pact to end
the Internet as we know it.
DRUDGEREPORT:
America Is
'Bankrupt Mickey Mouse Economy'...
WIRE:
USA 'Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It'...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
MOB
RUSH FOR FED AID DRAWS RIOT POLICE
DOW drops
265...
Feds
rethink policies that encourage home ownership...
Obama: $3
Billion More in Aid for Unemployed...
US
posts widest trade gap in 20 months...
Q2 GDP Growth Could Be Revised To Just 1% After Trade Data...
PUMP:
FED TO BUY MORE DEBT...
DOWNGRADES
OUTLOOK...
US-backed
fighters in Iraq defect to al-Qaida... [Winning hearts and minds …
for Al Qaida … just one too many civilian deaths for no good reason at all ]
Republicans
Suggest Names for 'Second Stimulus' Bill...
'Where
do the bailouts end?' [I feel compelled to comment here that
even capital hill math would be hard-pressed to justify $26 billion taxpayer /
treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save 300,000 state / local
government jobs! After all, the nation is defacto bankrupt! ]
Gerald Celente On the Alex
Jones Show: Double Dip Depression Will Lead Us Into War The white shoe boys are
taking us into the worst depression in history.
Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the internet along
with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously opposed same
and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and verizon as
mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc., operatives
at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went
public today with their “policy framework” — better known as the pact to end
the Internet as we know it.
Economists
Herald New Great Depression The world is
currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression,
according to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others
now forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.
Riiiiight! That ‘no-longer looking’ dynamic that saves the day and the ue rate
at 9.5%. At this rate of progress, and according to their thinking and
manipulations, full employment at an unprecedented 0% unemployment is just
around the corner as everyone stops looking for the jobs no longer here, many
of which were sent overseas and which are not coming back owing to substantial
economic structural / financial shifts.
Jobs Report: Companies Slow to Hire ABC
News - Only about 8 percent of the 8.4 million jobs lost at the
peak of the recession have been recovered, leaving millions of Americans still
looking for work, according to an analysis by ABC News' Business Unit. Video: News Update: US
Unemployment Rate Holds at 9.5%, 71,000 Jobs Added in June SmarTrend News 71K more jobs not enough to dent unemployment rate The Associated Press
When perusing the headlines and the
following, I immediately thought ‘between Iraq and a hard place (Afghanistan
and america’s defacto bankruptcy)’:
Between a Rock and a Hard Place Jerry Slusiewicz ‘Everyone knows that being between a rock
and a hard place is not a good place to be. That is where the market is right
now. We continue to have terrible news in the housing sector. There is no
general economic recovery as of yet. Jobless claims continue to mount, while
net new jobs are not being created in a significant enough number to even sustain
the population growth (approximately 150,000 net new jobs per month needed). By
far the majority of economic reports for May, June, July, and now August, have
been worse than forecast. That includes home starts, home sales, home-builder
confidence, retail sales, auto sales, consumer confidence, durable goods
orders, manufacturing, jobs, etc. Yet the market rallies or barely goes down on
these bad reports. What gives? It seems that bad news is good news right now…
Stepping Aside Because I Can Always
Buy Back In Leigh Drogen ‘I sold
out of everything this morning, for a few reasons…First, breakouts don’t always
work and momentum stocks have a habit of ending their trends abruptly.
Second, …I can buy back in this afternoon if I change my mind (not likely). I
see more risk to the downside here than I do to the upside. …Third, the jobs
number tomorrow scares me. No, it doesn’t matter what the number is, we all
know it’s going to be bad, what matters is how the market reacts, and I have the
feel it’s not going to be good. Fourth, many of my oscillators are overbought
here.Fifth, and finally, I don’t like the fact that this rally has primarily
taken place on the back of the most beaten down sectors. …It all just doesn’t
pass the smell test for me. I’ve been successful at this not because I’m always
right, but because I know when I’m wrong and I’m willing to change course or
step aside. Right now, I’ll step aside.’
Were Unemployment Claims Really So 'Unexpected'?
WE’RE UNDERESTIMATING THE BEARISH POTENTIAL , August 3, 2010
’… Will Anything Stop the Market? Something Did
… At the same
time, the April numbers were lowered the second time by an additional 24,000
units, while May sales were revised lower by 33,000 units. To summarize, April
and May sales were reduced by 57,000 units. Therefore, June sales were 24%
above May sales. By the way, May sales were the lowest on record…
Temporary
Firehouse Closures Begin In Philadelphia CBS
3 | The
city of Philadelphia has started temporarily closing fire stations in order to
balance its budget.
Warning
Signs Suggest Market Headed for Another Collapse … One can find no shortage of fundamental or
mechanical theories explaining what might form the basis of a future financial
collapse published at Zero Hedge, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Nouriel Roubini or
Karl Denninger. In fact, I buy into a lot of the evidence presented by these
sources, and believe that one gains a better grasp of financial reality
spending 10 minutes with Zero Hedge than spending 2 weeks listening to the
mainstream financial media. It is laughable to compare the vacant drivel coming
out of Dennis Kneale to even one single article published by Tyler Durden or
Ryan Iskander…
1. HEAD &
SHOULDERS ON THE S&P 500, DOW JONES, AND NASDAQ …
2. BULLISH FLAG ON
THE VIX? We can’t have a massive spike in volatility without a coinciding
collapse in the equity markets …
3.
THE DEATH-CROSS ON THE S&P SUGGESTS THE 2009 TO 2010 RALLY MIGHT BE OVER
…
4. THE VOLUMELESS
RALLY & MUTUAL FUND OUTFLOWS
…
5. 1,000 POINT FLASH
CRASHES
…
6. BOND MARKET
DISTRUSTFUL OF THE RALLY
…
7. MARKET LEADERSHIP
IS WEAKENING
[chart] … ‘
Stocks' Late Push: Some
Optimism, Some Pessimism [Late
push … as in a constipated bowel movement … Come on! Another one of those push
the computer programmed trade button and off we go, reality / valuation /
economics be damned. In real security analysis (very simplified / summarized),
as opposed to the continued frauds on wall street, one must begin with the
largest and most significant aggregate (a simple word picture / analogy:
‘rising tide lifts all boats’). If you get this right, the probabilities in
your favor are substantially enhanced. From there, you want leading industries,
and leading companies within said leading industries (again, larger aggregates
then picks, to enhance probabilities, not guarantees, in your favor). Your time
frame, 1-3-5 yrs tops for projections, (including income statement/EPS, balance
sheet, and applying an appropriate P/E – a detailed, multi-faceted approach
beyond what could be described in this summary); and, that’s all they are,
projections. Beyond that time frame, your guess. On fraudulent wall street,
every day, though already discounted in large part (6-8 mos, approx.), the
market spins, churns, and with lightning fast computerized high-frequency trade
programs commissions in huge volumes like no other time in financial history
when real valuation meant something, with no net economic value added, but very
lucrative to the frauds on wall street, which ultimately is a net detriment to
the economy / the nation /and other industries as we’ve seen and as described
elsewhere on this site and in these posts http://albertpeia.com . Preposterously, they
even sometimes refer to seasonal factors as if hearing them for the first time
and ‘explaining’ an up move (almost invariably already discounted). Today, they
shrugged off the deepening economic reality despite the election year frothing
/ manipulations. This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market
in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in
a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national
decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the
wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and
disgorgement imposed. ].
Slowing economic rebound raises
unemployment fears (AP) [Wow! Talk about understatements!]
Marc Faber Questions if Dow
Could Hit 1,000 In the August edition of the ‘The Gloom, Boom
& Doom Report’ Marc Faber questions whether the Dow could hit 1,000 as predicted by Robert Prechter, based
on his interpretation of Elliot Waves, Fibonacci numbers and socioeconomic
trends. Prechter, who has written 13
books on finance (external link), believes
that the stock market is historically overvalued in terms of dividends and
earnings, because of a “great rise in positive social mood.” But the mood
changed in 2000 and the “trend toward negative social mood will lead to an
economic contraction,” according to Prechter. “Small bear markets lead to
recessions, big bear markets lead to depressions. The current bear market will
be the biggest in nearly 300 years, so the depression will be correspondingly
deep,” Prechter said.
Wall
St falls after weak outlooks drag (Reuters) U.S. stocks sagged in volatile
trading on Thursday after weak outlooks from technology companies and downbeat
comments from a Federal Reserve official gave investors little reason to buy.
Fed says some districts report slowing economy (Reuters)
Flaws of the European Stress Test … 'Bank stress test' became the magic phrase. Nothing calms fear
like a stress test that's labeled as rigorous. The stress test raises a few
very obvious questions: 1) Will it work? 2) Why was it needed in addition to a
$1 trillion aid package? 3) Is the stress test just a gimmick to appease
investors? The stress test is conducted by the London-based Committee of
European Banking Supervisors (CEBS). Ironically, the test has ignored the
majority of banks' holdings of sovereign debt. Sovereign debt concerns by the
so-called PIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain) triggered the
latest wave of financial problems. Ignoring sovereign debt in the Euro stress
test would be like ignoring toxic real estate assets in the U.S. 10%
Good - 90% Bad According to a Morgan Stanley survey, European banks hold about 90%
of their Greek government bonds in their banking books and 10% in their trading
books. The bonds in the banking book are generally held until maturity, the
bonds in the trading book are traded more frequently. According to a document
obtained by Bloomberg, the stress test assumes a loss of 23.1% on Greek debt,
14% on Portuguese bonds, 12.3% on Spanish debt, 4.7% on German debt, 10% on
U.K. debt, and 5.9% on French debt. However, the stress test only looks at the
bonds held in banks' trading books, which account for a mere 10% of Greek bond
holdings. Can that be called a stress test? Nouriel Roubini says that 'the
assumptions made about economic growth, about sovereign risk are not realistic
enough.' The fact that only seven banks failed the test with a combined
shortfall of $4.5 billion confirms the lax nature of the test. … The U.S. Bank Stress Test - A Nice Façade A closer look under the hood of
the U.S. bank stress test, however, shows that there's not much substance
behind the facade either. It was determined that the 19 tested U.S. banks need
to increase their balance sheets by $75 billion to meet the conditions of
what's termed the 'worst case scenario.' To a large extent, the $75 billion of
additional capital was financially engineered. Banks didn't have to actually
raise $75 billion. They were able to change the label of some of their assets
on their balance sheets. The government supported this practice via mandatory
convertible preferred shares (detailed analysis in May 2009 issue of the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter) …’
Moody's:
Regional banks on review for downgrade (AP)
Consumer
confidence dims (Reuters)
Job worries drove July U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest since
February, with one in six people expecting lower income in the next six months,
underscoring the precarious state of econo...
Global
steelmakers paint gloomy picture (Reuters)
US
bank failures in 2010 surpass 100
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. bank failures this year have surpassed a bleak
milestone of 100 as regulators shut down banks in Georgia, Florida, South
Carolina, Kansas, Nevada and Minnesota. The six bank seizures announced Friday
bring to 102 the failures so far in 2010. The pace of bank closures this year
is well ahead of that of last year, which saw a total 140 bank shuttered amid
the recession and mounting loan defaults …
On the Disconnect Between the Market and the Economy Michael Shulman:
(No recession helicopter ben) Bernanke Admits Major Policy Failures; Stocks Soar Darryl Montgomery What's wrong with this picture?
In his bi-annual testimony before Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke
admitted that after more than a year and a half of zero interest rates and $3
trillion in federal deficit spending since 2008, the best case
scenario for the U.S. economy is slow growth and high unemployment. The S&P
500 is up 2.5% so far this morning on this 'good' news. Bernanke's congressional testimony included the
following statements (emphasis added by me):
"Most [FOMC] participants viewed uncertainty
about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the
majority saw [at the June Fed meeting] the risks to growth as weighted to
the downside."
"Financial conditions--though much improved
since the depth of the financial crisis--have become less supportive of
economic growth in recent months."
"Many banks continue to have a large volume
of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight.
With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank
loans outstanding have continued to contract."
"After two years of job losses, private payrolls
expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this
year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially.
In all likelihood, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the
nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009."…
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Did Google Block “Barry
Soetoro” Search Term? Screenshots obtained by a Prison Planet reader suggest
that Google may have moved to de-list “Barry Soetoro” as a popular search term
shortly after it rose to the top of the Google Trends charts after yesterday’s
effort by radio talk show host Alex Jones to focus attention on Barack Obama’s
real name.
Wave Goodbye To Brand Obama Administration spokesman Robert Gibbs’ angry retort that
left-wing critics of President Obama ought to be “drug tested” because they are
“crazy” marks a crucial benchmark in the accelerating evisceration of Obama’s
public support, even amongst liberals who, having exalted Obama as some kind of
savior, are now realizing that he is merely a servant to the banking elite.
Preparing
for World War III, Targeting Iran Humanity is at a dangerous crossroads.
War preparations to attack Iran are in “an advanced state of readiness”. Hi
tech weapons systems including nuclear warheads are fully deployed.
Pentagon tells WikiLeaks: "Do right thing" (Reuters) [Great
advice … if only the endless war, military complex based pentagon could take
it!] The Pentagon demanded on Thursday that whistle-blower web site WikiLeaks
immediately hand over about 15,000 secret Afghan war records it had not yet
published and erase material it had alrea…
Oliver
Stone has apologized for his anti-Semitic rant, but is the damage already done.
What damage? To perceived reality as opposed to reality? When you look at
america’s pro-israel, self-destructive, contra-indicated policies, including
the hands off policy vis-ŕ-vis fraudulent wall street, you see the truth to
what he says which is what so many astute individuals are already thinking /
realizing. How can people continue to ignore the truth, to their own detriment
Think about it. Do you really think he would risk the typical onslaught if the
same weren’t true? ‘Director Oliver
Stone has been forced to make a grovelling apology over an anti-Semitic
outburst. The double Academy Award winner claimed that the Russians suffered
more during the Second World War and that there was a Jewish 'domination of the
media'. Stone also said that Jews had '****ed up' U.S. foreign policy for years
and suggested the British supported Hitler ...’ The relentless attacks on Mel
Gibson are of the same caliber and purpose; suppression of truth!
WASHPOST
Ombudsman: Why Silence on Black Panther Story? (Washington Post) ‘Thursday's Post reported about a growing controversy
over the Justice
Department's decision to scale down a voter-intimidation case against members
of the New Black Panther Party. The story succinctly summarized the issues
but left many readers with a question: What took you so long? For months,
readers have contacted the ombudsman wondering why The Post hasn't been
covering the case. The calls increased recently after competitors such as the New
York Times and the Associated Press wrote stories. Fox News and right-wing
bloggers have been pumping the story. Liberal bloggers have countered, accusing
them of trying to manufacture a scandal. But The Post has been virtually
silent. The story has its origins on Election Day in 2008, when two members of
the New Black Panther Party stood in front of a Philadelphia polling place. YouTube
video of the men, now viewed nearly 1.5 million times, shows both wearing
paramilitary clothing. One carried a nightstick…’
Latino
KKK: You are too white to be American! ALIPAC | Tan
Klan woman can scream racist comments because the Obama administration and most
of the major news networks in America have her back.
Drudgereport:
NEW
LOW FOR O: USATODAYGALLUP HAS OBAMA APPROVE AT 41%...
America Is
'Bankrupt Mickey Mouse Economy'...
WIRE:
USA 'Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It'...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
MOB
RUSH FOR FED AID DRAWS RIOT POLICE
DOW drops
265...
Feds
rethink policies that encourage home ownership...
Obama: $3
Billion More in Aid for Unemployed...
US
posts widest trade gap in 20 months...
Q2 GDP Growth Could Be Revised To Just 1% After Trade Data...
PUMP:
FED TO BUY MORE DEBT...
DOWNGRADES
OUTLOOK...
US-backed
fighters in Iraq defect to al-Qaida... [Winning hearts and minds …
for Al Qaida … just one too many civilian deaths for no good reason at all ]
Republicans
Suggest Names for 'Second Stimulus' Bill...
'Where
do the bailouts end?' [I feel compelled to comment here that
even capital hill math would be hard-pressed to justify $26 billion taxpayer /
treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save 300,000 state / local
government jobs! After all, the nation is defacto bankrupt! ]
CASTRO
WARNS OF IMPENDING NUCLEAR HOLOCAUST
WELCOME
TO THE RECOVERY...
JULY
UNEMPLOYMENT -131,000 JOBS...
Revised: May/June -97,000 jobs than first reported...
Odd
mix of bad news...
CASTRO
WARNS OF IMPENDING NUCLEAR HOLOCAUST
Michelle
Obama 'modern-day Marie Antoinette'...
NYT:
'Leaves the taxpayers with a hefty bill'...
While
Obama preaches sacrifice, his family frolics in Spain...
Gazpacho,
turbot, veal and ratatouille with the king...
Lavish
Obama vacation in time of economic turmoil raises eyebrows...
BAKER:
'Leaves taxpayers with hefty bill'...
Hollywood
star-studded gala at first lady's luxury hotel...
MICHELLE
O'S $375,000 VACATION?!
Strolls Marbella after State Dept. 'racist' Spaniards gaffe...
White
House calling: Please will you make a coat for Michelle...
Boy
Scouts boo Obama...
GALLUP:
Blacks and Whites Continue to Differ Sharply on Obama...
JUDGE
KNOCKS DOWN MARRIAGE PROP IN CA
BLOW
TO O: MO SAYS NO
Voters
overwhelmingly rejected federal mandate to purchase health insurance...
Americans
swap passports; Desire to avoid tax leads some to renounce citizenship...
Ahmadinejad
survives blast near motorcade...
'Stupid
Zionists have hired mercenaries to assassinate me'...
FALTERING RECOVERY TRIPS DOLLAR...
GM,
FORD and CHRYSLER Sales All Lag Estimates...
Stimulus
Slammed: Republican Senators Release Report Alleging Waste...
The
100 worst stimulus projects...
SHOCK
VIDEO: DEM CONGRESSMAN BRAGS: 'FEDERAL GOVERNMENT CAN DO MOST ANYTHING IN THIS
COUNTRY'...
Deadliest Month Of Afghan War
Paper:
Will Washington's Failures Lead To Second American Revolution
Maxine
Waters faces trial over bank bailout funds...
HOT WATERS
Dems
Say Sorry, Charlie...
Democrats
Say Rangel Should Resign...
Obama:
Time For Rangel To End Career 'With Dignity'...
60,000 babies born to 'noncitizens' get U.S. birthright - in Texas
alone...
Dutch
become 1st NATO member to quit Afghanistan...
Equities Update: Stocks End Lower, Helped
Modestly By Fed's Latest Pledge
Midnight Trader 4:22 PM, Aug 10, 2010 --
·
NYSE down 48 (-0.7%) to 7,139.75
·
DJIA down 54 (-0.5%) to 10,644
·
S&P 500 down 6.73 (-0.6%) to 1,121
·
Nasdaq down 28.5 (-1.2%) to 2,277
GLOBAL
SENTIMENT
·
Hang Seng down 1.50%
·
Nikkei down 0.22%
·
FTSE down 0.63%
UPSIDE
MOVERS
(+) MBI gains on improved quarter.
(+) PPCO sold to Endo for $144 Mln.
(+) QNST lifts sales outlook.
(+) AAU gains on drilling results.
(+) AKAM gets upgraded.
(+) RIMM strikes deal with Saudis.
DOWNSIDE
MOVERS
(-) ABK reports another loss, exploring
prepackaged bankruptcy.
(-) NUAN issues mixed Q3 report.
(-) NGLS selling notes.
(-) QGEN misses with sales.
(-) HQS down after latest results.
(-) FEED swings to a loss.
(-) JASO beats with revenue.
MARKET
DIRECTION
Stock indexes end down 0.5% to 1.2%, off
earlier lows in the wake of the Federal Reserve's latest statement pledging
more help for the economy. Stocks began the day lower, when disappointing
productivity data before the bell combined with a downturn in Chinese import
demand.
The Fed maintained lending rates at
historic lows and said it would reinvest proceeds from maturing mortgage-backed
securities into Treasury bonds. Wall Street analysts said the action reassured
investors that the bank is willing to keep liquidity flowing as the recovery
has shown its vulnerability in recent months.
The Fed now believes economic growth will
be "more modest" than it had anticipated at its late June meeting.
The Fed, citing "subdued" inflation, said it would keep its target
for a key interest rate at zero to 0.25 percent for a "extended
period," the AP reported.
A pre-market report showed a decline in
workforce productivity in Q2 after an upwardly revised Q1. The report showed
U.S. non-farm productivity fell 0.9% compared to the 0.4% expected. The first
quarter was revised up to 3.6% from 2.8%, the report said.
In company news:
Bank of America
(BAC) could get $13 billion from it stake in
China Construction Bank Corp., which had an original cost of $9.2 billion
according to a Bloomberg News report. BofA couldn't sell the shares because
they were locked up, the report said. Now that lockup is expiring and
accounting rules say the bank will need to value the stake at a market value of
$22.1 billion, the report said.
In the pharma
space, a new study of patients who receive Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) hepatitis C drug revealed the vast
majority of previously untreated patients who respond early to telaprevir are
cured in half the time of current therapy, according to a Reuters report.
Wendy's/Arby's
Group (WEN)
said it will open 180 restaurants in Russia over the next 10 years, according
to a Reuters report. The move is the latest from a U.S. fast-food chain to look
to Russia for new growth, the report said.
Oracle Corp. (ORCL) Chief Executive Officer Larry Ellison came
down hard on Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) for
ousting HP CEO Mark Hurd. The move came following an investigation of a sexual
harassment claim that revealed Hurd had not violated HP's sexual harassment
policy, Reuters reported. But the CEO was said to have been fired for
falsifying expense reports to hide his relationship with an HP contractor.
Research in
Motion Ltd (RIMM) is
up after Saudi Arabia said it will allow the the BlackBerry maker to continue
operating in the country. Research in Motion has, however, been asked to put a
system in place that will allow the government to monitor use.
Wal-Mart Stores
Inc. (WMT) was lower after J.P. Morgan Securities
released a study showing the famed discounter has been raising prices. Based on
a study of stores in Virginia, J.P. Morgan said Wal-Mart raised prices at its
Supercenter by 5.8%, the biggest increase since it started tacking prices in
January 2009.
Intel Corp. (INTC) was falling in step with other chipmakers,
including rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD), after a JP Morgan analyst expressed
concern about a slowdown in the personal computer market. Analyst Christopher
Danely stated that PC orders are "falling off a cliff."
International
Business Machines (IBM)
said it had purchased Datacap Inc., a privately held software company.
Datacap's software helps companies capture, manage and automate the flow of
business information. Financial terms were undisclosed.
CVB Financial (CVBF) is down sharply after the company says it
got a subpoena from the SEC, MarketWatch reports. The July 26 subpoena from the
Los Angeles office of the SEC requests information about CVBF's loan
underwriting guidelines, its allowance for credit losses and the way the bank
calculates its allowance for loan losses, according to a quarterly regulatory
filing on Monday.
Google's (GOOG) South Korean office was raided by police
as part of an investigation into possible breaches of privacy laws due to the
company's data collected for its street view mapping service.
Evergreen
Energy (EEE) says
it approved a reverse split of its common shares at a ratio of 1-for-12 to be
effective August 20. Shares of several companies were moving after earnings
announcements.
Delta Petroleum
(DPTR) shares were lower after the company said
late Monday it lost $0.54 per share in Q2, smaller than the loss a year ago but
wider than the Thomson Reuters mean for a $0.09 loss. Sales were $36 million,
more than forecasts for $34.2 million.
InterContinental
Hotels Group (IHG)
was falling in pre-market trade even though the British group reported
returning to the black in the first half of the fiscal year. InterContinental
reported pretax pforit at $141 million, compared to a net loss of $29 million a
year ago.
Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the internet along
with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously opposed same
and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and verizon as
mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc., operatives
at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went
public today with their “policy framework” — better known as the pact to end
the Internet as we know it.
Stocks Fall Despite Help From Bernanke: Here's
What You Need To Know
Despite the beginning of quantitative easing 2.0, stocks still
fell markedly.
But first, the scoreboard:
Dow: -57
NASDAQ: -29
S&P 500: -6.6
And now, the top stories:
·
The tone was set overnight when China announced that its imports
had grown far less than
had been expected. The Shanghai Composite plunged by more than 3%, a move that
brought the rest of the world down with it. European markets and US futures
both headed lower. The yen and the dollar both perked up.
·
The early hours were very quiet, with almost all of the talk
centered around the release of FOMC minutes at 2:15. Stocks remained solidly in
the red throughout the day. The one econ number of the morning was
productivity, which unexpectedly dived, possibly portending bad news for
stocks.
·
Finally, at 2:15 the Fed made its
move. Quantitative easing will begin modestly, via a decision not to
let the Fed balance sheet naturally shrink. The Fed balance sheet will be fixed
at just over $2 trillion.
·
Stocks initially rallied hard on
the news. The dollar plunged. Treasuries soared. Gold jumped. The Yen spiked. However, all Bernanke's cash
wasn't enough to push stocks into the green today. At least there wasn't no
change.
·
Some other top stories of the day? The House (as expected)
approved a $26 billion bailout of the states. Russian wildfires continue to
burn, choking Moscow with smog.
DRUDGEREPORT:
PUMP:
FED TO BUY MORE DEBT...
DOWNGRADES
OUTLOOK...
US-backed
fighters in Iraq defect to al-Qaida... [Winning hearts and minds …
for Al Qaida … just one too many civilian deaths for no good reason at all ]
Republicans
Suggest Names for 'Second Stimulus' Bill...
'Where
do the bailouts end?' [I feel compelled to comment here that
even capital hill math would be hard-pressed to justify $26 billion taxpayer /
treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save 300,000 state / local
government jobs! After all, the nation is defacto bankrupt! ]
Gerald Celente On the Alex
Jones Show: Double Dip Depression Will Lead Us Into War The white shoe boys are
taking us into the worst depression in history.
Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the internet along
with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously opposed same
and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and verizon as
mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc., operatives
at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went
public today with their “policy framework” — better known as the pact to end
the Internet as we know it.
Economists
Herald New Great Depression The world is
currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression,
according to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others
now forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.
Riiiiight! That ‘no-longer looking’ dynamic that saves the day and the ue rate
at 9.5%. At this rate of progress, and according to their thinking and
manipulations, full employment at an unprecedented 0% unemployment is just
around the corner as everyone stops looking for the jobs no longer here, many
of which were sent overseas and which are not coming back owing to substantial
economic structural / financial shifts.
Jobs Report: Companies Slow to Hire ABC
News - Only about 8 percent of the 8.4 million jobs lost at the
peak of the recession have been recovered, leaving millions of Americans still
looking for work, according to an analysis by ABC News' Business Unit. Video: News Update: US
Unemployment Rate Holds at 9.5%, 71,000 Jobs Added in June SmarTrend News 71K more jobs not enough to dent unemployment rate The Associated Press
When perusing the headlines and the
following, I immediately thought ‘between Iraq and a hard place (Afghanistan
and america’s defacto bankruptcy)’:
Between a Rock and a Hard Place Jerry Slusiewicz ‘Everyone knows that being between a rock
and a hard place is not a good place to be. That is where the market is right
now. We continue to have terrible news in the housing sector. There is no
general economic recovery as of yet. Jobless claims continue to mount, while
net new jobs are not being created in a significant enough number to even
sustain the population growth (approximately 150,000 net new jobs per month
needed). By far the majority of economic reports for May, June, July, and now
August, have been worse than forecast. That includes home starts, home sales,
home-builder confidence, retail sales, auto sales, consumer confidence, durable
goods orders, manufacturing, jobs, etc. Yet the market rallies or barely goes
down on these bad reports. What gives? It seems that bad news is good news
right now…
Stepping Aside Because I Can Always
Buy Back In Leigh Drogen ‘I sold
out of everything this morning, for a few reasons…First, breakouts don’t always
work and momentum stocks have a habit of ending their trends abruptly.
Second, …I can buy back in this afternoon if I change my mind (not likely). I
see more risk to the downside here than I do to the upside. …Third, the jobs
number tomorrow scares me. No, it doesn’t matter what the number is, we all
know it’s going to be bad, what matters is how the market reacts, and I have
the feel it’s not going to be good. Fourth, many of my oscillators are
overbought here.Fifth, and finally, I don’t like the fact that this rally has
primarily taken place on the back of the most beaten down sectors. …It all just
doesn’t pass the smell test for me. I’ve been successful at this not because
I’m always right, but because I know when I’m wrong and I’m willing to change
course or step aside. Right now, I’ll step aside.’
Were Unemployment Claims Really So 'Unexpected'?
WE’RE UNDERESTIMATING THE BEARISH POTENTIAL , August 3, 2010
’… Will Anything Stop the Market? Something Did
… At the same
time, the April numbers were lowered the second time by an additional 24,000
units, while May sales were revised lower by 33,000 units. To summarize, April
and May sales were reduced by 57,000 units. Therefore, June sales were 24%
above May sales. By the way, May sales were the lowest on record…
Temporary
Firehouse Closures Begin In Philadelphia CBS
3 | The
city of Philadelphia has started temporarily closing fire stations in order to
balance its budget.
Warning
Signs Suggest Market Headed for Another Collapse … One can find no shortage of fundamental or
mechanical theories explaining what might form the basis of a future financial
collapse published at Zero Hedge, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Nouriel Roubini or
Karl Denninger. In fact, I buy into a lot of the evidence presented by these
sources, and believe that one gains a better grasp of financial reality
spending 10 minutes with Zero Hedge than spending 2 weeks listening to the
mainstream financial media. It is laughable to compare the vacant drivel coming
out of Dennis Kneale to even one single article published by Tyler Durden or
Ryan Iskander…
1. HEAD &
SHOULDERS ON THE S&P 500, DOW JONES, AND NASDAQ …
2. BULLISH FLAG ON
THE VIX? We can’t have a massive spike in volatility without a coinciding
collapse in the equity markets …
3.
THE DEATH-CROSS ON THE S&P SUGGESTS THE 2009 TO 2010 RALLY MIGHT BE OVER
…
4. THE VOLUMELESS
RALLY & MUTUAL FUND OUTFLOWS
…
5. 1,000 POINT FLASH
CRASHES
…
6. BOND MARKET
DISTRUSTFUL OF THE RALLY
…
7. MARKET LEADERSHIP
IS WEAKENING
[chart] … ‘
Stocks' Late Push: Some
Optimism, Some Pessimism [Late
push … as in a constipated bowel movement … Come on! Another one of those push
the computer programmed trade button and off we go, reality / valuation /
economics be damned. In real security analysis (very simplified / summarized),
as opposed to the continued frauds on wall street, one must begin with the
largest and most significant aggregate (a simple word picture / analogy:
‘rising tide lifts all boats’). If you get this right, the probabilities in
your favor are substantially enhanced. From there, you want leading industries,
and leading companies within said leading industries (again, larger aggregates
then picks, to enhance probabilities, not guarantees, in your favor). Your time
frame, 1-3-5 yrs tops for projections, (including income statement/EPS, balance
sheet, and applying an appropriate P/E – a detailed, multi-faceted approach
beyond what could be described in this summary); and, that’s all they are,
projections. Beyond that time frame, your guess. On fraudulent wall street,
every day, though already discounted in large part (6-8 mos, approx.), the
market spins, churns, and with lightning fast computerized high-frequency trade
programs commissions in huge volumes like no other time in financial history
when real valuation meant something, with no net economic value added, but very
lucrative to the frauds on wall street, which ultimately is a net detriment to
the economy / the nation /and other industries as we’ve seen and as described
elsewhere on this site and in these posts http://albertpeia.com . Preposterously, they
even sometimes refer to seasonal factors as if hearing them for the first time
and ‘explaining’ an up move (almost invariably already discounted). Today, they
shrugged off the deepening economic reality despite the election year frothing
/ manipulations. This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market
in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in
a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national
decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the
wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and
disgorgement imposed. ].
Slowing economic rebound raises
unemployment fears (AP) [Wow! Talk about understatements!]
Marc Faber Questions if Dow
Could Hit 1,000 In the August edition of the ‘The Gloom, Boom
& Doom Report’ Marc Faber questions whether the Dow could hit 1,000 as predicted by Robert Prechter, based
on his interpretation of Elliot Waves, Fibonacci numbers and socioeconomic
trends. Prechter, who has written 13
books on finance (external link), believes
that the stock market is historically overvalued in terms of dividends and
earnings, because of a “great rise in positive social mood.” But the mood
changed in 2000 and the “trend toward negative social mood will lead to an
economic contraction,” according to Prechter. “Small bear markets lead to
recessions, big bear markets lead to depressions. The current bear market will
be the biggest in nearly 300 years, so the depression will be correspondingly
deep,” Prechter said.
Wall
St falls after weak outlooks drag (Reuters) U.S. stocks sagged in volatile
trading on Thursday after weak outlooks from technology companies and downbeat
comments from a Federal Reserve official gave investors little reason to buy.
Fed says some districts report slowing economy (Reuters)
Flaws of the European Stress Test … 'Bank stress test' became the magic phrase. Nothing calms fear
like a stress test that's labeled as rigorous. The stress test raises a few
very obvious questions: 1) Will it work? 2) Why was it needed in addition to a
$1 trillion aid package? 3) Is the stress test just a gimmick to appease
investors? The stress test is conducted by the London-based Committee of
European Banking Supervisors (CEBS). Ironically, the test has ignored the
majority of banks' holdings of sovereign debt. Sovereign debt concerns by the
so-called PIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain) triggered the
latest wave of financial problems. Ignoring sovereign debt in the Euro stress
test would be like ignoring toxic real estate assets in the U.S. 10%
Good - 90% Bad According to a Morgan Stanley survey, European banks hold about 90%
of their Greek government bonds in their banking books and 10% in their trading
books. The bonds in the banking book are generally held until maturity, the
bonds in the trading book are traded more frequently. According to a document
obtained by Bloomberg, the stress test assumes a loss of 23.1% on Greek debt,
14% on Portuguese bonds, 12.3% on Spanish debt, 4.7% on German debt, 10% on
U.K. debt, and 5.9% on French debt. However, the stress test only looks at the
bonds held in banks' trading books, which account for a mere 10% of Greek bond
holdings. Can that be called a stress test? Nouriel Roubini says that 'the
assumptions made about economic growth, about sovereign risk are not realistic
enough.' The fact that only seven banks failed the test with a combined
shortfall of $4.5 billion confirms the lax nature of the test. … The U.S. Bank Stress Test - A Nice Façade A closer look under the hood of
the U.S. bank stress test, however, shows that there's not much substance
behind the facade either. It was determined that the 19 tested U.S. banks need
to increase their balance sheets by $75 billion to meet the conditions of
what's termed the 'worst case scenario.' To a large extent, the $75 billion of
additional capital was financially engineered. Banks didn't have to actually
raise $75 billion. They were able to change the label of some of their assets
on their balance sheets. The government supported this practice via mandatory
convertible preferred shares (detailed analysis in May 2009 issue of the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter) …’
Moody's:
Regional banks on review for downgrade (AP)
Consumer
confidence dims (Reuters)
Job worries drove July U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest since
February, with one in six people expecting lower income in the next six months,
underscoring the precarious state of econo...
Global
steelmakers paint gloomy picture (Reuters)
US
bank failures in 2010 surpass 100
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. bank failures this year have surpassed a bleak
milestone of 100 as regulators shut down banks in Georgia, Florida, South
Carolina, Kansas, Nevada and Minnesota. The six bank seizures announced Friday
bring to 102 the failures so far in 2010. The pace of bank closures this year
is well ahead of that of last year, which saw a total 140 bank shuttered amid
the recession and mounting loan defaults …
On the Disconnect Between the Market and the Economy Michael Shulman:
(No recession helicopter ben) Bernanke Admits Major Policy Failures; Stocks Soar Darryl Montgomery What's wrong with this picture?
In his bi-annual testimony before Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke
admitted that after more than a year and a half of zero interest rates and $3
trillion in federal deficit spending since 2008, the best case
scenario for the U.S. economy is slow growth and high unemployment. The S&P
500 is up 2.5% so far this morning on this 'good' news. Bernanke's congressional testimony included the
following statements (emphasis added by me):
"Most [FOMC] participants viewed uncertainty
about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the
majority saw [at the June Fed meeting] the risks to growth as weighted to
the downside."
"Financial conditions--though much improved
since the depth of the financial crisis--have become less supportive of
economic growth in recent months."
"Many banks continue to have a large volume
of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight.
With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank
loans outstanding have continued to contract."
"After two years of job losses, private payrolls
expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this
year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially.
In all likelihood, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the
nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009."…
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Did Google Block “Barry
Soetoro” Search Term? Screenshots obtained by a Prison Planet reader suggest
that Google may have moved to de-list “Barry Soetoro” as a popular search term
shortly after it rose to the top of the Google Trends charts after yesterday’s
effort by radio talk show host Alex Jones to focus attention on Barack Obama’s
real name.
Preparing
for World War III, Targeting Iran Humanity is at a dangerous crossroads.
War preparations to attack Iran are in “an advanced state of readiness”. Hi tech
weapons systems including nuclear warheads are fully deployed.
Pentagon tells WikiLeaks: "Do right thing" (Reuters) [Great
advice … if only the endless war, military complex based pentagon could take
it!] The Pentagon demanded on Thursday that whistle-blower web site WikiLeaks
immediately hand over about 15,000 secret Afghan war records it had not yet
published and erase material it had alrea…
Oliver
Stone has apologized for his anti-Semitic rant, but is the damage already done.
What damage? To perceived reality as opposed to reality? When you look at
america’s pro-israel, self-destructive, contra-indicated policies, including
the hands off policy vis-ŕ-vis fraudulent wall street, you see the truth to
what he says which is what so many astute individuals are already thinking /
realizing. How can people continue to ignore the truth, to their own detriment
Think about it. Do you really think he would risk the typical onslaught if the
same weren’t true? ‘Director Oliver
Stone has been forced to make a grovelling apology over an anti-Semitic
outburst. The double Academy Award winner claimed that the Russians suffered
more during the Second World War and that there was a Jewish 'domination of the
media'. Stone also said that Jews had '****ed up' U.S. foreign policy for years
and suggested the British supported Hitler ...’ The relentless attacks on Mel
Gibson are of the same caliber and purpose; suppression of truth!
WASHPOST
Ombudsman: Why Silence on Black Panther Story? (Washington Post) ‘Thursday's Post reported about a growing controversy
over the Justice
Department's decision to scale down a voter-intimidation case against members
of the New Black Panther Party. The story succinctly summarized the issues
but left many readers with a question: What took you so long? For months,
readers have contacted the ombudsman wondering why The Post hasn't been
covering the case. The calls increased recently after competitors such as the New
York Times and the Associated Press wrote stories. Fox News and right-wing
bloggers have been pumping the story. Liberal bloggers have countered, accusing
them of trying to manufacture a scandal. But The Post has been virtually
silent. The story has its origins on Election Day in 2008, when two members of
the New Black Panther Party stood in front of a Philadelphia polling place. YouTube
video of the men, now viewed nearly 1.5 million times, shows both wearing
paramilitary clothing. One carried a nightstick…’
Latino
KKK: You are too white to be American! ALIPAC | Tan
Klan woman can scream racist comments because the Obama administration and most
of the major news networks in America have her back.
Drudgereport:
NEW
LOW FOR O: USATODAYGALLUP HAS OBAMA APPROVE AT 41%...
PUMP:
FED TO BUY MORE DEBT...
DOWNGRADES
OUTLOOK...
US-backed
fighters in Iraq defect to al-Qaida... [Winning hearts and minds …
for Al Qaida … just one too many civilian deaths for no good reason at all ]
Republicans
Suggest Names for 'Second Stimulus' Bill...
'Where
do the bailouts end?' [I feel compelled to comment here that
even capital hill math would be hard-pressed to justify $26 billion taxpayer /
treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save 300,000 state / local
government jobs! After all, the nation is defacto bankrupt! ]
CASTRO
WARNS OF IMPENDING NUCLEAR HOLOCAUST
WELCOME
TO THE RECOVERY...
JULY
UNEMPLOYMENT -131,000 JOBS...
Revised: May/June -97,000 jobs than first reported...
Odd
mix of bad news...
CASTRO
WARNS OF IMPENDING NUCLEAR HOLOCAUST
Michelle
Obama 'modern-day Marie Antoinette'...
NYT:
'Leaves the taxpayers with a hefty bill'...
While
Obama preaches sacrifice, his family frolics in Spain...
Gazpacho,
turbot, veal and ratatouille with the king...
Lavish
Obama vacation in time of economic turmoil raises eyebrows...
BAKER:
'Leaves taxpayers with hefty bill'...
Hollywood
star-studded gala at first lady's luxury hotel...
MICHELLE
O'S $375,000 VACATION?!
Strolls Marbella after State Dept. 'racist' Spaniards gaffe...
White
House calling: Please will you make a coat for Michelle...
Boy
Scouts boo Obama...
GALLUP:
Blacks and Whites Continue to Differ Sharply on Obama...
JUDGE
KNOCKS DOWN MARRIAGE PROP IN CA
BLOW
TO O: MO SAYS NO
Voters
overwhelmingly rejected federal mandate to purchase health insurance...
Americans
swap passports; Desire to avoid tax leads some to renounce citizenship...
Ahmadinejad
survives blast near motorcade...
'Stupid
Zionists have hired mercenaries to assassinate me'...
FALTERING RECOVERY TRIPS DOLLAR...
GM,
FORD and CHRYSLER Sales All Lag Estimates...
Stimulus
Slammed: Republican Senators Release Report Alleging Waste...
The
100 worst stimulus projects...
SHOCK
VIDEO: DEM CONGRESSMAN BRAGS: 'FEDERAL GOVERNMENT CAN DO MOST ANYTHING IN THIS
COUNTRY'...
Deadliest Month Of Afghan War
Paper:
Will Washington's Failures Lead To Second American Revolution
Maxine
Waters faces trial over bank bailout funds...
HOT WATERS
Dems
Say Sorry, Charlie...
Democrats
Say Rangel Should Resign...
Obama:
Time For Rangel To End Career 'With Dignity'...
60,000 babies born to 'noncitizens' get U.S. birthright - in Texas
alone...
Dutch
become 1st NATO member to quit Afghanistan...
Economists
Herald New Great Depression The world is
currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression,
according to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others
now forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s. The
world is currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great
Depression, according to a prominent economist who has added his voice to
scores of others now forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen
since the 1930s.Robin Griffiths, a technical strategist at Cazenove Capital,
told CNBC Monday that he sees the stock market bottoming out in October as the
world has entered significant financial depression.“Equities are for losers and
bond markets for winners. Equities are simply for people who like losing
money,” Griffiths said.“A double-dip is inevitable and imminent, as Keynesian
stimulus measures have never worked anywhere. We are in the equivalent of a
Great Depression following 3 years of credit crisis,” he added.Griffiths also
says he has charted a 20-year secular downturn in the West, which
we are currently halfway through.Griffiths’ comments echo those of other notable economists and experts who have
concluded that zero growth, mass unemployment, and devastating monetary
tightening spells depression on a 1932 level.With real measures
of unemployment having been at around 20% and rising for some time, other analysts have
pointed out that the numbers are in the same ballpark as the Great
Depression.The number of Americans relying on food stamps is at a record level of over 40.8 million, that is one out of
every eight, with the figure projected to rise to 43.3 million next year. At
the height of the Great Depression, the rate was just one out of thirty-five
Americans.Furthermore, the M3 money supply in the United States is contracting
at an accelerating rate that now matches the average decline seen from 1929 to 1933, despite near zero
interest rates and the all the stimulus activity.July’s dismal jobs report and
forecasts of even weaker job growth ahead, along with signs of food inflation, also signals an era of
stagflation is upon us, a phenomenon not seen during
even the Great Depression.Other economists are beginning to pin the blame for
the continuing spiral into depression at the feet of the central bankers:“The
major problem is that quantitative easing has been counter-productive.” Brendan
Brown, head of research at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities tells CNBC.“The central banks
have stopped prices from falling. When prices fall, people buy but by shoring
up asset prices the central bankers have stood in the way of recovery,” he
added.“The big risk is that the Fed reacts to its own depression. The Fed could
over-react and would be better off going on holiday rather than announcing yet
more QE,” Brown said on the eve of a Fed meeting to discuss more QE.
ARE YOU PREPARED FOR A MARKET CORRECTION? , On Monday August 9, 2010, 3:21 pm EDT Don't let the August market doldrums lull
you into complacency. The market will very likely get much more volatile before
the end of the year. If you're not prepared, a
spike in the level of volatility could lead you to take rash
action, which rarely produces the best outcomes. Worse still, you could
miss out on the opportunities that price action creates. Here are some ideas to
prevent that from happening.
Volatility is coming -- it's in the numbers
First, why do I think that higher volatility is on the way? For evidence of
that, one need only look at the prices of VIX futures expiring in September and
beyond. The VIX index is a measure of the market's expectations for future
volatility in the S&P 500, based on the stock index's option prices. High
VIX values typically accompany market declines, with investors paying up for
puts to hedge their stock holdings; thus, the VIX's nickname: Wall Street's
"fear gauge."On Friday, the index closed at 21.74 the lowest value
since the beginning of May, when the market started experiencing palpitations.
By contrast, the October VIX futures contract closed at 29.15. For context, the
VIX's average closing price during the months of May and June was 30.9 you'll remember
that was a challenging period for stocks.
What you shouldn't do
Don't go
out and short the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY - News) on this basis. As far as I
know, the VIX isn't reliable enough to enable you to time the market (what
indicator is?). Furthermore, it's certainly conceivable that the market is overestimating
the level of future volatility. Although I think this unlikely, as PIMCO
Chief Investment Officer Mohamed El-Erian wrote last week: "With declining
confidence in a reliable set of investing rules, markets have become more
susceptible to overreactions to daily news and are, therefore, more
volatile."Nevertheless, if you anticipate higher volatility, there are
other ways to profit from market declines if you are looking at the right set
of stocks beforehand. For example, if market prices do begin to swing wildly,
we should expect high-beta stocks to be on the sharp end of that trend (beta is
a standard measure of how volatile a stock has been relative to the overall
market).
The best stock in a 'pariah' sector
The 15th-highest beta stock in the S&P 500, Masco (NYSE: MAS - News), is more than twice as
volatile as the S&P 500 (beta: 2.26). One of the world's largest
manufacturers of branded products for home improvement and new home
construction, it's one of the best names in an industry that has been run out
of town by investors due to its dependency on the housing market. Although the
shares currently change hands at 17 times estimated earnings for 2011, net
income has significantly understated cash earnings over the past several years.
If the market were to slip on a banana peel, it could provide a very
attractive entry point to own Masco.
'High-beta' isn't the only strategy
Focusing in on high-beta stocks may be overthinking things. Megacap stocks tend
to be relatively less volatile than the broad market, but you can't throw a
dart at the list of Dow components without hitting a stock that is already
attractively priced (well a couple of darts, at any rate). Take a look at these
four:
High-quality: A good choice in the current
environment
Any one of these stocks is a certificate of ownership for an armor-plated
franchise, none of which carry a lot of debt. Both of which are attractive
characteristics at a time when the economy is vacillating on the edge of
deflation. Alternatively, if you aren't interested in selecting specific
stocks, you could certainly do worse than to own the index, through the SPDR
Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE: DIA - News).
Being ready for the next correction
In many ways, the current period marks the mirror image of the last stage of
the technology bubble when high-quality,
large-cap stocks traded at staggering multiples and were one of the most
expensive segments of the market. Today, the same stocks are rather cheaper
than the broad market a rare phenomenon.
If your portfolio is heavy with low-quality,
highly leveraged companies, you should be aware that those stocks are
particularly vulnerable to a potential autumn market correction. Meanwhile,
such a correction would provide an opportunity to buy shares in blue-chip,
"franchise" stocks at even better prices than the ones on offer
today. That's certainly a prospect worth being prepared for. With the
recovery stalling and the economy on the brink of deflation, dividends will
become increasingly valuable. Jordan DiPietro has identified the
best dividend stock. Period. Fool contributor Alex Dumortier, CFA has no
beneficial interest in any of the stocks mentioned in this article. Wal-Mart
Stores is a Motley
Fool Inside Value selection. Masco and Procter & Gamble are Motley
Fool Income Investor recommendations. The Fool owns shares of and has
written covered calls on Procter & Gamble. Try any of our Foolish newsletters
today, free
for 30 days. The Motley Fool has a disclosure
policy.
Wall Street Moves Up As Fed Gathers For Rate Summit The Federal Reserve is
widely expected to maintain its benchmark federal funds rate at historically
low levels when its monetary policy committee gathers Tuesday, but the real
question is whether the central bank will downgrade its forecast for the U.S.
economy or take steps to inject more stimulus into the system. Monday's docile
trading day seemed to indicate that traders are not expecting much of a
curveball from the Federal Open Market Committee.
The major indexes all finished the day moderately higher and in the bond market Treasury yields were little changed.
The Dow Jones industrial average finished up 45 points at 10,699, while the
S&P 500 added 6 points to 1,128 and the Nasdaq gained 17 points to 2,306. Hewlett-Packard
( HPQ
- news -
people ) was among
Monday's most hotly-traded stocks after Chief Executive Mark Hurd resigned Friday after an
investigation into sexual harassment turned up expense account abuses. (See "H-P
Still A Buy After Ax Falls On Hurd.")
Shares of H-P slid 8% Monday, while fellow Dow component McDonald's
( MCD
- news -
people ) rallied 1.6%
after reporting a 7% gain in same-store sales. (See "McDonald's
Drinks Up Beverage Sales.") Elsewhere in high-profile stocks, Google
( GOOG
- news -
people ) and Verizon
( VZ
- news -
people ) made headlines
with a joint statement on maintaining an open Internet. Shares of Google
finished 1% higher, while Verizon added 1.1%.
H-P
Hit Hard After Hurd Steps Down
FTE
Courts Asian Partners
Colgate
Clipped By Citi Cut
Wealthiest
Americans Cut Spending
Riiiiight! That ‘no-longer looking’ dynamic that saves the day and the ue rate
at 9.5%. At this rate of progress, and according to their thinking and
manipulations, full employment at an unprecedented 0% unemployment is just
around the corner as everyone stops looking for the jobs no longer here, many
of which were sent overseas and which are not coming back owing to substantial
economic structural / financial shifts.
Jobs Report: Companies Slow to Hire ABC
News - Only about 8 percent of the 8.4 million jobs lost at the
peak of the recession have been recovered, leaving millions of Americans still
looking for work, according to an analysis by ABC News' Business Unit. Video: News Update: US
Unemployment Rate Holds at 9.5%, 71,000 Jobs Added in June SmarTrend News 71K more jobs not enough to dent unemployment rate The Associated Press
When perusing the headlines and the
following, I immediately thought ‘between Iraq and a hard place (Afghanistan
and america’s defacto bankruptcy)’:
Between a Rock and a Hard Place Jerry Slusiewicz ‘Everyone knows that being between a rock
and a hard place is not a good place to be. That is where the market is right
now. We continue to have terrible news in the housing sector. There is no
general economic recovery as of yet. Jobless claims continue to mount, while
net new jobs are not being created in a significant enough number to even
sustain the population growth (approximately 150,000 net new jobs per month
needed). By far the majority of economic reports for May, June, July, and now
August, have been worse than forecast. That includes home starts, home sales,
home-builder confidence, retail sales, auto sales, consumer confidence, durable
goods orders, manufacturing, jobs, etc. Yet the market rallies or barely goes
down on these bad reports. What gives? It seems that bad news is good news
right now. Market investors are hoping that all this bad news will lead to more
government stimulus. Pundits talk about more stimuli as if it was a good thing.
Our European partners are telling us to be more fiscally responsible or we will
be the next Greece. But investors are hopeful that another round of
quantitative easing will be announced by the Fed next Tuesday and there is hope
for a mortgage bailout for those one in five households with a mortgage that is
underwater by August 17th. Now if you have been prudent on your investments and
spending the last decade or so and find yourself without any bailout potential
(except to maybe write the check for these bailouts in the form of higher
taxes) don’t worry because the government is telling us that you will benefit
because this will stem the continuing downfall in home prices. Really? After
trillions of dollars of global government stimulus the markets are still down
30% from their highs three years ago. Housing is down by about the same
percentage. Jobs are scarce and we continue to reward bad behavior or just
plain bad luck in the name of ‘for the good of all.’ St. Louis Fed President
James Bullard said recently that, the U.S. is closer to a Japanese-style
deflation outcome today than at any time in recent history. That hit the head
on the nail better than Fed Chair Ben Bernanke’s recent “unusually uncertain”
assessment of the economic outlook. Japan has been performing various forms of
government intervention for two decades and they are still in a troubled
environment. So what happened to capitalism? What happened to free enterprise?
What happened to the concept that the markets will reward the winners and the
companies that don’t manage well, or produce products that aren’t needed or
overpriced, or did a heap of bad loans would perish. That worked for us for
over 200 years. Now the markets appear to be cheering for more government
intervention. I never thought I would see this day. I for one would like the
markets to decide the winners and the losers. Free enterprise might be a short
term more painful path – but it would be quicker and the economy would surely
regroup much quicker. Don’t believe me – look at Japan! That is what we should
not do – yet we are following their path. Intervention is already here. These
markets do not want to go down on every piece of bad news. Let the markets
clear the air. Volume has traded at the lightest of the year recently. It is so
light that it is lower than levels from not only this year but most every
year’s light summer volume has not been this paltry. I think that the markets
have become a controlled environment. It’s as if some major investors are
saying. “Don’t worry about all the bad news; we’ll hold it up for now, because
help is on the way (in the form of more intervention).”Granted earnings season
was pretty good, relative to expectations. But when those expectations are
lowered dramatically, sometimes it becomes easy to beat those reduced levels.
To be fair, some companies are actually doing better than before the recession
began – but those companies are few and far between. Consumer credit is still
shrinking and higher taxes starting in January is just around the corner. The
consumer is needed to drive the economy. Savings is also up causing another
crimp in spending. I remember when the following old saying was a joke. Next
week Tuesday could be very telling when we hear some variation of it: “Hi -
we’re from the government – we’re here to help!” Let’s all hope it all works out
– but I for one am not in favor of any more of this kind of assistance. I wish
more people felt the way I do and believed we should just let the chips fall
where they may and then let’s band together to pick up the pieces. But the
likely hood is we’ll just add more scotch tape to the crumbling dam. I hope I
am wrong for the good of us all!
Stepping Aside Because I Can Always
Buy Back In Leigh Drogen ‘I sold
out of everything this morning, for a few reasons…First, breakouts don’t always
work and momentum stocks have a habit of ending their trends abruptly.
Second, …I can buy back in this afternoon if I change my mind (not likely). I
see more risk to the downside here than I do to the upside. …Third, the jobs
number tomorrow scares me. No, it doesn’t matter what the number is, we all
know it’s going to be bad, what matters is how the market reacts, and I have
the feel it’s not going to be good. Fourth, many of my oscillators are
overbought here.Fifth, and finally, I don’t like the fact that this rally has
primarily taken place on the back of the most beaten down sectors. …It all just
doesn’t pass the smell test for me. I’ve been successful at this not because
I’m always right, but because I know when I’m wrong and I’m willing to change course
or step aside. Right now, I’ll step aside.’
Were Unemployment Claims Really So 'Unexpected'?
WE’RE UNDERESTIMATING THE BEARISH POTENTIAL , August 3, 2010
’… Will Anything Stop the Market? Something Did
… At the same
time, the April numbers were lowered the second time by an additional 24,000
units, while May sales were revised lower by 33,000 units. To summarize, April
and May sales were reduced by 57,000 units. Therefore, June sales were 24%
above May sales. By the way, May sales were the lowest on record. Is this
really reason to celebrate? But wait, there's more. The S&P
Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Index inched from 144.59 to 146.43 for May, a
1.25% increase. Many are unaware that the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is a
three month average and is released with a two month lag. The most recent
3-month average as of May included the period when buyers still received their
$8,000 tax credit. As the chart below shows, despite a 80%+ rally in equities,
trillions worth of stimulus money, $8,000 home-buyers tax credit, and a lot of
hot air, the Case-Shiller Index has only risen 6 points, or 5.15%, from its
March 2009 low and remains 30% below its 2006 high. [chart]
Banks' Toxic Assets: It's no secret that the economy started choking because
banks gorged on toxic real estate assets. As the real estate related losses
piled up, banks got into trouble and started hording their meager funds and
lending dried up. Since then, banks have taken free government money and
invested it in various Treasuries. Even yields for short and long-term
treasuries (NYSEArca: TLT - News)
have fallen, and banks have been earning interest without risk, while
businesses can't obtain funding. Another income source for banks has been
securities trading. But, since stocks have fallen, so have banks' trading
revenue, meanwhile banks' real estate portfolios remain unchanged. Unemployment
is persistent and foreclosures continue to soar. Thus far, free interest and
rising stocks have covered up the losses racked up by banks' portfolios of
toxic assets. But the weak link (falling real estate prices) has not been fixed.
Once pressure is put on the chain, it will break again. The problems within the
financial sector have been visible all along. 106 banks, many of them regional
banks (NYSEArca: KRE - News),
have failed already in 2010. At the same time last year, only 65 banks failed.
An additional 775 banks are on the FDIC's problem bank list. Unlike Wall Street
and the financial media, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter bothers to take a
look under the hood and examine the engines that drive the economy. It's quite
obvious that a number of pistons have blown, the engine is sputtering but the
car is rolling downhill. Once the next hill comes, the car (aka the economy) will
come to a standstill. AAA can't fix blown pistons, neither can the government.
The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
regularly and consistently monitors and analysis technical, fundamental,
sentiment and valuation gauges to formulate detailed short, mid and long-term
forecasts, along with a target for the ultimate market bottom. ‘
Temporary
Firehouse Closures Begin In Philadelphia CBS
3 | The
city of Philadelphia has started temporarily closing fire stations in order to
balance its budget.
Warning Signs Suggest Market Headed for Another Collapse
In early January 2008, I had a very troubling conversation with
my colleague at Matrix Analytix regarding a significant warning sign suggesting
that a major crisis loomed on the horizon of the equity markets that year. The
content of our conversation was focused on the implications of a massive
one-year head & shoulders on the S&P 500 (SPY). The issue consistently
pervaded my mind because if what the equity markets seemed to signal was true,
we were probably headed for a major collapse. I remember asking him
specifically, “Can this be for real? What are the implications of a head &
shoulders of that magnitude completely unwinding?”My colleague all but
confirmed my concerns even pointing to a potential culprit for the impending
downturn. He had noted that the markets had all but brushed off early warnings
of systemic risk and liquidity concerns posed by the potential failure of
subprime MBS’s that August, and that such concerns were likely to resurface in
2008. I, for one, didn’t really care what the potential culprit may be. For me,
the fact that market technicals suggested that an impending failure was drawing
near formed the basis of my concerns.The fact that market participants,
investors, and the mainstream media continued to put their heads in the sand
and ignore such blatant signs of the broader market was simply unacceptable. At
the time, the S&P 500 had rallied nearly 35% over the past 2 years. There
was rampant discussion of Dow (DIA) 18,000 as the market continued to “benefit”
from the so-called “Goldilocks economy.” Almost everyone was either oblivious
to the warning signs of the broader market or simply decided to ignore them.
Turn the page to
today, and it’s the same story all over again. While investors, fund managers,
and the mainstream financial media debate whether we’re headed for a double-dip
recession, they simply continue to disregard the obvious technical damage done
on the broader market. Once again, this article is not so much concerned with
the potential fundamental reasons or theories advanced as to why the markets
might unravel. Instead, I’m more concerned with what the broader market seems
to be telling me about the immediate future.
One can find no
shortage of fundamental or mechanical theories explaining what might form the
basis of a future financial collapse published at Zero Hedge, by Nassim
Nicholas Taleb, Nouriel Roubini or Karl Denninger. In fact, I buy into a lot of
the evidence presented by these sources, and believe that one gains a better
grasp of financial reality spending 10 minutes with Zero Hedge than spending 2
weeks listening to the mainstream financial media. It is laughable to compare
the vacant drivel coming out of Dennis Kneale to even one single article
published by Tyler Durden or Ryan Iskander.
Once again, right now
I’m focused on what the trading activity in the broader market seems to be
telling me rather than on what the fundamentals of the economy or the
mechanical structure of the markets indicate. The techncials suggest, as they
did in early 2008, that there is something fundamentally wrong with the
financial markets and that a collapse, whatever the fundamental reasons may be,
is potentially drawing near. There are seven issues I’ll briefly discuss below,
and why it's imperative that my readers should explore these issues in more
detail.
1. HEAD &
SHOULDERS ON THE S&P 500, DOW JONES, AND NASDAQ
2. BULLISH FLAG ON
THE VIX? We can’t have a massive spike in volatility without a coinciding
collapse in the equity markets …
3.
THE DEATH-CROSS ON THE S&P SUGGESTS THE 2009 TO 2010 RALLY MIGHT BE OVER
…
4. THE VOLUMELESS
RALLY & MUTUAL FUND OUTFLOWS
…
5. 1,000 POINT FLASH
CRASHES
…
6. BOND MARKET
DISTRUSTFUL OF THE RALLY
…
7. MARKET LEADERSHIP
IS WEAKENING
[chart] … ‘
Stocks' Late Push: Some
Optimism, Some Pessimism [Late
push … as in a constipated bowel movement … Come on! Another one of those push
the computer programmed trade button and off we go, reality / valuation /
economics be damned. In real security analysis (very simplified / summarized),
as opposed to the continued frauds on wall street, one must begin with the
largest and most significant aggregate (a simple word picture / analogy:
‘rising tide lifts all boats’). If you get this right, the probabilities in
your favor are substantially enhanced. From there, you want leading industries,
and leading companies within said leading industries (again, larger aggregates
then picks, to enhance probabilities, not guarantees, in your favor). Your time
frame, 1-3-5 yrs tops for projections, (including income statement/EPS, balance
sheet, and applying an appropriate P/E – a detailed, multi-faceted approach
beyond what could be described in this summary); and, that’s all they are,
projections. Beyond that time frame, your guess. On fraudulent wall street,
every day, though already discounted in large part (6-8 mos, approx.), the
market spins, churns, and with lightning fast computerized high-frequency trade
programs commissions in huge volumes like no other time in financial history
when real valuation meant something, with no net economic value added, but very
lucrative to the frauds on wall street, which ultimately is a net detriment to
the economy / the nation /and other industries as we’ve seen and as described
elsewhere on this site and in these posts http://albertpeia.com . Preposterously, they
even sometimes refer to seasonal factors as if hearing them for the first time
and ‘explaining’ an up move (almost invariably already discounted). Today, they
shrugged off the deepening economic reality despite the election year frothing
/ manipulations. This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market
in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in
a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national
decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the
wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and
disgorgement imposed. ].
Slowing economic rebound raises
unemployment fears (AP) [Wow! Talk about understatements!]
Marc Faber Questions if Dow
Could Hit 1,000 In the August edition of the ‘The Gloom, Boom
& Doom Report’ Marc Faber questions whether the Dow could hit 1,000 as predicted by Robert Prechter, based
on his interpretation of Elliot Waves, Fibonacci numbers and socioeconomic
trends. Prechter, who has written 13
books on finance (external link), believes
that the stock market is historically overvalued in terms of dividends and
earnings, because of a “great rise in positive social mood.” But the mood
changed in 2000 and the “trend toward negative social mood will lead to an economic
contraction,” according to Prechter. “Small bear markets lead to recessions,
big bear markets lead to depressions. The current bear market will be the
biggest in nearly 300 years, so the depression will be correspondingly deep,”
Prechter said.
Wall
St falls after weak outlooks drag (Reuters) U.S. stocks sagged in volatile
trading on Thursday after weak outlooks from technology companies and downbeat
comments from a Federal Reserve official gave investors little reason to buy.
Fed says some districts report slowing economy (Reuters)
Flaws of the European Stress Test … 'Bank stress test' became the magic phrase. Nothing calms fear
like a stress test that's labeled as rigorous. The stress test raises a few
very obvious questions: 1) Will it work? 2) Why was it needed in addition to a
$1 trillion aid package? 3) Is the stress test just a gimmick to appease investors?
The stress test is conducted by the London-based Committee of European Banking
Supervisors (CEBS). Ironically, the test has ignored the majority of banks'
holdings of sovereign debt. Sovereign debt concerns by the so-called PIGS
countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain) triggered the latest wave of
financial problems. Ignoring sovereign debt in the Euro stress test would be
like ignoring toxic real estate assets in the U.S. 10%
Good - 90% Bad According to a Morgan Stanley survey, European banks hold about 90%
of their Greek government bonds in their banking books and 10% in their trading
books. The bonds in the banking book are generally held until maturity, the
bonds in the trading book are traded more frequently. According to a document
obtained by Bloomberg, the stress test assumes a loss of 23.1% on Greek debt,
14% on Portuguese bonds, 12.3% on Spanish debt, 4.7% on German debt, 10% on
U.K. debt, and 5.9% on French debt. However, the stress test only looks at the
bonds held in banks' trading books, which account for a mere 10% of Greek bond
holdings. Can that be called a stress test? Nouriel Roubini says that 'the
assumptions made about economic growth, about sovereign risk are not realistic
enough.' The fact that only seven banks failed the test with a combined
shortfall of $4.5 billion confirms the lax nature of the test. … The U.S. Bank Stress Test - A Nice Façade A closer look under the hood of
the U.S. bank stress test, however, shows that there's not much substance
behind the facade either. It was determined that the 19 tested U.S. banks need
to increase their balance sheets by $75 billion to meet the conditions of
what's termed the 'worst case scenario.' To a large extent, the $75 billion of
additional capital was financially engineered. Banks didn't have to actually
raise $75 billion. They were able to change the label of some of their assets
on their balance sheets. The government supported this practice via mandatory
convertible preferred shares (detailed analysis in May 2009 issue of the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter) …’
Moody's:
Regional banks on review for downgrade (AP)
Consumer
confidence dims (Reuters)
Job worries drove July U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest since
February, with one in six people expecting lower income in the next six months,
underscoring the precarious state of econo...
Global
steelmakers paint gloomy picture (Reuters)
US
bank failures in 2010 surpass 100
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. bank failures this year have surpassed a bleak
milestone of 100 as regulators shut down banks in Georgia, Florida, South
Carolina, Kansas, Nevada and Minnesota. The six bank seizures announced Friday
bring to 102 the failures so far in 2010. The pace of bank closures this year
is well ahead of that of last year, which saw a total 140 bank shuttered amid
the recession and mounting loan defaults …
On the Disconnect Between the Market and the Economy Michael Shulman:
(No recession helicopter ben) Bernanke Admits Major Policy Failures; Stocks Soar Darryl Montgomery What's wrong with this picture?
In his bi-annual testimony before Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke
admitted that after more than a year and a half of zero interest rates and $3
trillion in federal deficit spending since 2008, the best case
scenario for the U.S. economy is slow growth and high unemployment. The S&P
500 is up 2.5% so far this morning on this 'good' news. Bernanke's congressional testimony included the
following statements (emphasis added by me):
"Most [FOMC] participants viewed uncertainty
about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the
majority saw [at the June Fed meeting] the risks to growth as weighted to
the downside."
"Financial conditions--though much improved
since the depth of the financial crisis--have become less supportive of
economic growth in recent months."
"Many banks continue to have a large volume
of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight.
With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank
loans outstanding have continued to contract."
"After two years of job losses, private payrolls
expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this
year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially.
In all likelihood, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the
nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009."…
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Bill
& Melinda Gates Foundation Gave Millions to La Raza Kurt Nimmo | Globalist foundations are determined to exploit La Raza in
order to further their one-world and eugenics depopulation agenda.
Preparing
for World War III, Targeting Iran Humanity is at a dangerous crossroads.
War preparations to attack Iran are in “an advanced state of readiness”. Hi
tech weapons systems including nuclear warheads are fully deployed.
Pentagon tells WikiLeaks: "Do right thing" (Reuters) [Great
advice … if only the endless war, military complex based pentagon could take
it!] The Pentagon demanded on Thursday that whistle-blower web site WikiLeaks
immediately hand over about 15,000 secret Afghan war records it had not yet
published and erase material it had alrea…
Oliver
Stone has apologized for his anti-Semitic rant, but is the damage already done.
What damage? To perceived reality as opposed to reality? When you look at
america’s pro-israel, self-destructive, contra-indicated policies, including
the hands off policy vis-ŕ-vis fraudulent wall street, you see the truth to
what he says which is what so many astute individuals are already thinking /
realizing. How can people continue to ignore the truth, to their own detriment
Think about it. Do you really think he would risk the typical onslaught if the
same weren’t true? ‘Director Oliver
Stone has been forced to make a grovelling apology over an anti-Semitic
outburst. The double Academy Award winner claimed that the Russians suffered
more during the Second World War and that there was a Jewish 'domination of the
media'. Stone also said that Jews had '****ed up' U.S. foreign policy for years
and suggested the British supported Hitler ...’ The relentless attacks on Mel
Gibson are of the same caliber and purpose; suppression of truth!
WASHPOST
Ombudsman: Why Silence on Black Panther Story? (Washington Post) ‘Thursday's Post reported about a growing
controversy over the Justice
Department's decision to scale down a voter-intimidation case against members
of the New Black Panther Party. The story succinctly summarized the issues
but left many readers with a question: What took you so long? For months,
readers have contacted the ombudsman wondering why The Post hasn't been
covering the case. The calls increased recently after competitors such as the
New York Times and the Associated Press wrote stories. Fox News and right-wing
bloggers have been pumping the story. Liberal bloggers have countered, accusing
them of trying to manufacture a scandal. But The Post has been virtually
silent. The story has its origins on Election Day in 2008, when two members of
the New Black Panther Party stood in front of a Philadelphia polling place. YouTube
video of the men, now viewed nearly 1.5 million times, shows both wearing
paramilitary clothing. One carried a nightstick…’
Latino
KKK: You are too white to be American! ALIPAC | Tan
Klan woman can scream racist comments because the Obama administration and most
of the major news networks in America have her back.
Drudgereport:
NEW
LOW FOR O: USATODAYGALLUP HAS OBAMA APPROVE AT 41%...
WELCOME
TO THE RECOVERY...
JULY
UNEMPLOYMENT -131,000 JOBS...
Revised: May/June -97,000 jobs than first reported...
Odd
mix of bad news...
Michelle
Obama 'modern-day Marie Antoinette'...
MICHELLE
O'S $375,000 VACATION?!
Strolls
Marbella after State Dept. 'racist' Spaniards gaffe...
GALLUP:
Blacks and Whites Continue to Differ Sharply on Obama...
JUDGE
KNOCKS DOWN MARRIAGE PROP IN CA
BLOW
TO O: MO SAYS NO
Voters
overwhelmingly rejected federal mandate to purchase health insurance...
Americans
swap passports; Desire to avoid tax leads some to renounce citizenship...
Ahmadinejad
survives blast near motorcade...
'Stupid
Zionists have hired mercenaries to assassinate me'...
FALTERING RECOVERY TRIPS DOLLAR...
GM,
FORD and CHRYSLER Sales All Lag Estimates...
Stimulus
Slammed: Republican Senators Release Report Alleging Waste...
The
100 worst stimulus projects...
SHOCK
VIDEO: DEM CONGRESSMAN BRAGS: 'FEDERAL GOVERNMENT CAN DO MOST ANYTHING IN THIS
COUNTRY'...
Deadliest Month Of Afghan War
Paper:
Will Washington's Failures Lead To Second American Revolution
Maxine
Waters faces trial over bank bailout funds...
HOT WATERS
Dems
Say Sorry, Charlie...
Democrats
Say Rangel Should Resign...
Obama:
Time For Rangel To End Career 'With Dignity'...
Dutch
become 1st NATO member to quit Afghanistan...
Yeah!
Dave’s the only one who seems to be on the mark concerning the preposterous
market action this day. Even before reading same I was going to comment here
that I believed that the decision to ‘mouse click / button push’ the programmed
buy trades was probably made after hours in the previous session. Remember,
these are desperate criminally insane frauds on wall street who really try very
hard to get people to buy into their paper-churning high-frequency trade /
commission scam for which ultimately potentially productive money is siphoned
off / drained from the economy into their pockets which is a net negative in
real economic terms. They know all the tricks, technical trendlines, moving
averages, etc., to suck them in: Buy Program Express Lifts Markets: Dave's Daily - The
economic news from the unemployment report could not be worse and an old
pattern was repeated -- higher volume on a selloff followed by an engineered
"stick save" into the close. It used to be hard to make this stuff
up, now it's becoming routine. As noted yesterday, bulls might like bad data
since they'd expect another round of quantitative easing (QE2) from the Fed and
a politically desperate administration. This means more liquidity baby and an
opportunity to lift stocks to new highs. That's the thinking from bizzaro-land.
So we get another big intraday 150 point swing in the DJIA as the "2:15 PM
Buy Program Express" hits the tape on time as volume starts to dry up.
That's why the caution sign advises to stay away from the Program Trading
Express. Nevertheless, volume increased
Friday with most of that coming early and often. Breadth was negative but not
overwhelmingly so.
YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]
: ‘The week of August 6 began with plenty of promise, but disappointment over
the July jobs led to a lackluster finish. The stock market started the week
with a 2.2% surge that saw it close above its 200-day moving average for the
first time since June. Participants were encouraged by the latest ISM
Manufacturing Index, which pulled back for the third straight month to hit 55.5
for July, but still exceeded the 54.2 that had been widely expected. Midweek
action was much more muddled. Participants digested a better-than-expected July
ISM Service Index of 54.3, a worse-than-forecast 1.2% drop in June factory
orders, a surprise decline in June pending home sales, and flat personal income
and spending figures for June. Some took hope that the job market was seeing
improvement since the latest ADP Employment Change stated that private payrolls
for July increased by 42,000 when only 25,000 additions had been expected.
However, news that initial jobless claims for the week ended July 31 climbed
more than expected to a three-month high of 479,000 weighed on sentiment. Trade
on Friday was mostly dictated by the government's official monthly jobs report,
which showed that 131,000 nonfarm payrolls were slashed in July. A sample of
economists polled by Briefing.com had expected, on average, a more moderate
decline of 87,000 jobs. Combining the worse-than-expected July jobs report and
the downward revision to June data, nonfarm payrolls had their worst pair of
payrolls reports in eight months. Despite that development, the headline
unemployment rate stayed at 9.5%, but that is because the labor force continues
to shrink as discouraged job seekers suspend their efforts…’
Riiiiight! That ‘no longer looking’ dynamic that saves the day and the ue rate
at 9.5%. At this rate of progress, and according to their thinking and
manipulations, full employment at an unprecedented 0% unemployment is just
around the corner as everyone stops looking for the jobs no longer here, many
of which were sent overseas and which are not coming back owing to substantial
economic structural / financial shifts.
Jobs Report: Companies Slow to Hire ABC
News - Only about 8 percent of the 8.4 million jobs lost at the
peak of the recession have been recovered, leaving millions of Americans still
looking for work, according to an analysis by ABC News' Business Unit. Video: News Update: US
Unemployment Rate Holds at 9.5%, 71,000 Jobs Added in June SmarTrend News 71K more jobs not enough to dent unemployment rate The Associated Press
When perusing
the headlines and the following, I immediately thought ‘between Iraq and a hard
place (Afghanistan and america’s defacto bankruptcy)’:
Between a Rock and a Hard Place Jerry Slusiewicz ‘Everyone knows that being between a rock
and a hard place is not a good place to be. That is where the market is right
now. We continue to have terrible news in the housing sector. There is no
general economic recovery as of yet. Jobless claims continue to mount, while
net new jobs are not being created in a significant enough number to even
sustain the population growth (approximately 150,000 net new jobs per month
needed). By far the majority of economic reports for May, June, July, and now
August, have been worse than forecast. That includes home starts, home sales,
home-builder confidence, retail sales, auto sales, consumer confidence, durable
goods orders, manufacturing, jobs, etc. Yet the market rallies or barely goes
down on these bad reports. What gives? It seems that bad news is good news
right now. Market investors are hoping that all this bad news will lead to more
government stimulus. Pundits talk about more stimuli as if it was a good thing.
Our European partners are telling us to be more fiscally responsible or we will
be the next Greece. But investors are hopeful that another round of
quantitative easing will be announced by the Fed next Tuesday and there is hope
for a mortgage bailout for those one in five households with a mortgage that is
underwater by August 17th. Now if you have been prudent on your investments and
spending the last decade or so and find yourself without any bailout potential
(except to maybe write the check for these bailouts in the form of higher
taxes) don’t worry because the government is telling us that you will benefit
because this will stem the continuing downfall in home prices. Really? After
trillions of dollars of global government stimulus the markets are still down
30% from their highs three years ago. Housing is down by about the same
percentage. Jobs are scarce and we continue to reward bad behavior or just
plain bad luck in the name of ‘for the good of all.’ St. Louis Fed President
James Bullard said recently that, the U.S. is closer to a Japanese-style
deflation outcome today than at any time in recent history. That hit the head
on the nail better than Fed Chair Ben Bernanke’s recent “unusually uncertain”
assessment of the economic outlook. Japan has been performing various forms of
government intervention for two decades and they are still in a troubled
environment. So what happened to capitalism? What happened to free enterprise?
What happened to the concept that the markets will reward the winners and the
companies that don’t manage well, or produce products that aren’t needed or
overpriced, or did a heap of bad loans would perish. That worked for us for
over 200 years. Now the markets appear to be cheering for more government
intervention. I never thought I would see this day. I for one would like the
markets to decide the winners and the losers. Free enterprise might be a short
term more painful path – but it would be quicker and the economy would surely
regroup much quicker. Don’t believe me – look at Japan! That is what we should
not do – yet we are following their path. Intervention is already here. These
markets do not want to go down on every piece of bad news. Let the markets
clear the air. Volume has traded at the lightest of the year recently. It is so
light that it is lower than levels from not only this year but most every
year’s light summer volume has not been this paltry. I think that the markets
have become a controlled environment. It’s as if some major investors are
saying. “Don’t worry about all the bad news; we’ll hold it up for now, because
help is on the way (in the form of more intervention).”Granted earnings season
was pretty good, relative to expectations. But when those expectations are
lowered dramatically, sometimes it becomes easy to beat those reduced levels.
To be fair, some companies are actually doing better than before the recession
began – but those companies are few and far between. Consumer credit is still
shrinking and higher taxes starting in January is just around the corner. The
consumer is needed to drive the economy. Savings is also up causing another
crimp in spending. I remember when the following old saying was a joke. Next
week Tuesday could be very telling when we hear some variation of it: “Hi -
we’re from the government – we’re here to help!” Let’s all hope it all works
out – but I for one am not in favor of any more of this kind of assistance. I
wish more people felt the way I do and believed we should just let the chips
fall where they may and then let’s band together to pick up the pieces. But the
likely hood is we’ll just add more scotch tape to the crumbling dam. I hope I
am wrong for the good of us all!
Stepping Aside Because I Can Always
Buy Back In Leigh Drogen ‘I sold
out of everything this morning, for a few reasons…First, breakouts don’t always
work and momentum stocks have a habit of ending their trends abruptly.
Second, …I can buy back in this afternoon if I change my mind (not likely). I
see more risk to the downside here than I do to the upside. …Third, the jobs
number tomorrow scares me. No, it doesn’t matter what the number is, we all
know it’s going to be bad, what matters is how the market reacts, and I have
the feel it’s not going to be good. Fourth, many of my oscillators are overbought
here.Fifth, and finally, I don’t like the fact that this rally has primarily
taken place on the back of the most beaten down sectors. …It all just doesn’t
pass the smell test for me. I’ve been successful at this not because I’m always
right, but because I know when I’m wrong and I’m willing to change course or
step aside. Right now, I’ll step aside.’
Were Unemployment Claims Really So 'Unexpected'?
WE’RE UNDERESTIMATING THE BEARISH POTENTIAL , August 3, 2010
’… Will Anything Stop the Market? Something Did
… At the same
time, the April numbers were lowered the second time by an additional 24,000
units, while May sales were revised lower by 33,000 units. To summarize, April
and May sales were reduced by 57,000 units. Therefore, June sales were 24%
above May sales. By the way, May sales were the lowest on record. Is this
really reason to celebrate? But wait, there's more. The S&P
Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Index inched from 144.59 to 146.43 for May, a
1.25% increase. Many are unaware that the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is a
three month average and is released with a two month lag. The most recent
3-month average as of May included the period when buyers still received their
$8,000 tax credit. As the chart below shows, despite a 80%+ rally in equities,
trillions worth of stimulus money, $8,000 home-buyers tax credit, and a lot of
hot air, the Case-Shiller Index has only risen 6 points, or 5.15%, from its
March 2009 low and remains 30% below its 2006 high. [chart]
Banks' Toxic Assets: It's no secret that the economy started choking because
banks gorged on toxic real estate assets. As the real estate related losses
piled up, banks got into trouble and started hording their meager funds and
lending dried up. Since then, banks have taken free government money and
invested it in various Treasuries. Even yields for short and long-term
treasuries (NYSEArca: TLT - News)
have fallen, and banks have been earning interest without risk, while
businesses can't obtain funding. Another income source for banks has been
securities trading. But, since stocks have fallen, so have banks' trading
revenue, meanwhile banks' real estate portfolios remain unchanged. Unemployment
is persistent and foreclosures continue to soar. Thus far, free interest and
rising stocks have covered up the losses racked up by banks' portfolios of
toxic assets. But the weak link (falling real estate prices) has not been
fixed. Once pressure is put on the chain, it will break again. The problems
within the financial sector have been visible all along. 106 banks, many of
them regional banks (NYSEArca: KRE - News),
have failed already in 2010. At the same time last year, only 65 banks failed.
An additional 775 banks are on the FDIC's problem bank list. Unlike Wall Street
and the financial media, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter bothers to take a
look under the hood and examine the engines that drive the economy. It's quite
obvious that a number of pistons have blown, the engine is sputtering but the
car is rolling downhill. Once the next hill comes, the car (aka the economy)
will come to a standstill. AAA can't fix blown pistons, neither can the
government.
The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
regularly and consistently monitors and analysis technical, fundamental,
sentiment and valuation gauges to formulate detailed short, mid and long-term
forecasts, along with a target for the ultimate market bottom. ‘
Temporary
Firehouse Closures Begin In Philadelphia CBS
3 | The
city of Philadelphia has started temporarily closing fire stations in order to
balance its budget.
Warning Signs Suggest Market Headed for Another Collapse
In early January 2008, I had a very troubling conversation with
my colleague at Matrix Analytix regarding a significant warning sign suggesting
that a major crisis loomed on the horizon of the equity markets that year. The
content of our conversation was focused on the implications of a massive
one-year head & shoulders on the S&P 500 (SPY). The issue consistently
pervaded my mind because if what the equity markets seemed to signal was true,
we were probably headed for a major collapse. I remember asking him
specifically, “Can this be for real? What are the implications of a head &
shoulders of that magnitude completely unwinding?”My colleague all but
confirmed my concerns even pointing to a potential culprit for the impending
downturn. He had noted that the markets had all but brushed off early warnings
of systemic risk and liquidity concerns posed by the potential failure of
subprime MBS’s that August, and that such concerns were likely to resurface in
2008. I, for one, didn’t really care what the potential culprit may be. For me,
the fact that market technicals suggested that an impending failure was drawing
near formed the basis of my concerns.The fact that market participants,
investors, and the mainstream media continued to put their heads in the sand
and ignore such blatant signs of the broader market was simply unacceptable. At
the time, the S&P 500 had rallied nearly 35% over the past 2 years. There
was rampant discussion of Dow (DIA) 18,000 as the market continued to “benefit”
from the so-called “Goldilocks economy.” Almost everyone was either oblivious
to the warning signs of the broader market or simply decided to ignore them.
Turn the page to
today, and it’s the same story all over again. While investors, fund managers,
and the mainstream financial media debate whether we’re headed for a double-dip
recession, they simply continue to disregard the obvious technical damage done
on the broader market. Once again, this article is not so much concerned with
the potential fundamental reasons or theories advanced as to why the markets
might unravel. Instead, I’m more concerned with what the broader market seems
to be telling me about the immediate future.
One can find no
shortage of fundamental or mechanical theories explaining what might form the
basis of a future financial collapse published at Zero Hedge, by Nassim
Nicholas Taleb, Nouriel Roubini or Karl Denninger. In fact, I buy into a lot of
the evidence presented by these sources, and believe that one gains a better
grasp of financial reality spending 10 minutes with Zero Hedge than spending 2
weeks listening to the mainstream financial media. It is laughable to compare
the vacant drivel coming out of Dennis Kneale to even one single article
published by Tyler Durden or Ryan Iskander.
Once again, right now
I’m focused on what the trading activity in the broader market seems to be
telling me rather than on what the fundamentals of the economy or the
mechanical structure of the markets indicate. The techncials suggest, as they
did in early 2008, that there is something fundamentally wrong with the
financial markets and that a collapse, whatever the fundamental reasons may be,
is potentially drawing near. There are seven issues I’ll briefly discuss below,
and why it's imperative that my readers should explore these issues in more
detail.
1. HEAD &
SHOULDERS ON THE S&P 500, DOW JONES, AND NASDAQ
The biggest warning
sign the market seems to be giving us right now is the blatant 10-month head
& shoulders formation seen on each of the major indices. Like in 2008, a
massive head & shoulders of this magnitude is not something that investors
ought to take lightly. Millions chose to ignore this warning sign in 2008 at
their peril. I’m not going to sit here and belabor the point as I’ve already
written extensively on this topic, which could be found here.Yet, to summarize,
a head & shoulders formation is arguably the most bearish technical
formation in the books. The time, breadth and size of this head & shoulders
is exactly the same as what we saw in early 2008 just before entering the
biggest bear market in modern history …
[chart]
2. BULLISH FLAG ON
THE VIX?
Almost as important
as the head & shoulders on every broad market index and exchange is the
huge bullish flag on the VIX, VXN and VXX (VXX). Volatility looks like it's
about to explode higher in the September to October time frame. A convergence
of the upper and lower trend lines appears to take place near the end of
August. This certainly does not bode well for the markets. An explosion of
volatility can only be viewed as conclusively negative for the markets. We
can’t have a massive spike in volatility without a coinciding collapse in the
equity markets …
[chart]
3.
THE DEATH-CROSS ON THE S&P SUGGESTS THE 2009 TO 2010 RALLY MIGHT BE OVER
This topic has
already been written about quite extensively over the past few weeks. As you
may or may not be aware, the 50-day moving average crossed under the 200-day on
the S&P 500 signaling that the March 2009 to April 2010 bull market might
be at an end. When the 50 and 200 days cross in this manner, it suggests that
the overall trend has weakened to such a degree that the recent price action is
viewed as a topping process for the markets. We saw this exact same bearish
cross on the S&P 500 in early January 2008 right at the start of the great
bear market. You can read more about the death-cross here, here and here …
4. THE VOLUMELESS
RALLY & MUTUAL FUND OUTFLOWS
Arguably one of the
biggest warning signs suggesting that the entire 2009 to 2010 advance is just a
bear market rally arises from the fact that the move was done on increasingly
less volume. The clear lack of conviction indicates that the move was
orchestrated by very few market participants. Some have advocated that the 2009
to 2010 rally was performed under the complete control of the federal reserve
or by high frequency traders in either a ploy to combat deflation or by fixing
the odds of the market to favor the very few. If Goldman Sachs (GS) posting
gains every day in Q1 isn’t enough evidence that the game is fixed, I don’t
know what is.
Every down move in
the market is done on massive volume, and every up move on little to no volume.
Each day of the February to April melt-up rally was easy to predict. When
volume tanks, the market rises and volume picks up, the market tanks. What kind
of no-conviction fraudulent market rallies on zero volume and tanks on heavy
volume? Even the July bounce to this correction was done on low volume. Down
days in July exhibited huge volume while up days saw declining participation.
This lack of
conviction in the equity markets is further evidenced by the disconcertingly
significant mutual fund outflows seen over the past year. Tyler Durden notes in
an article posted at Zero Hedge last week:
The latest update
from ICI is a doozy: in the week ended July 21, domestic equity mutual funds
saw a 12th sequential outflow of $1.5 billion. Even as the market has surged
10% in the last three weeks, just under $10 billion have been redeemed from
mutual funds, completely invalidating the move and further justifying the
skeptics who see absolutely no reflection to reality in the volumeless ramp
orchestrated by a few momentum HFTs and a couple of Primary Dealers with some
excess leftover Discount Window change. Not to mention that 12 weeks in a row
of outflows pretty much marks game over as far as retail participation is
concerned in stocks…
[chart]
5. 1,000 POINT FLASH
CRASHES
Adding to the
concerns of low volume and mutual fund outflows, if 1,000-point inter-day
swings in the Dow doesn’t raise a clear red flag to investors that the mechanics
of the market is under fire, then clearly nothing can convince the average
investor to consider caution in the coming months. Whether the so-called
“flash-crash” was the result of some questionable “fat-finger” trade or the
result of everyone putting in stop losses at the same level on the S&P
(which I warned about 7-minutes prior to the crash see here) is anyone’s guess…
[chart]
6. BOND MARKET
DISTRUSTFUL OF THE RALLY
…
7. MARKET LEADERSHIP
IS WEAKENING
[chart] … ‘
Stocks' Late Push: Some
Optimism, Some Pessimism [Late
push … as in a constipated bowel movement … Come on! Another one of those push
the computer programmed trade button and off we go, reality / valuation /
economics be damned. In real security analysis (very simplified / summarized),
as opposed to the continued frauds on wall street, one must begin with the
largest and most significant aggregate (a simple word picture / analogy:
‘rising tide lifts all boats’). If you get this right, the probabilities in
your favor are substantially enhanced. From there, you want leading industries,
and leading companies within said leading industries (again, larger aggregates
then picks, to enhance probabilities, not guarantees, in your favor). Your time
frame, 1-3-5 yrs tops for projections, (including income statement/EPS, balance
sheet, and applying an appropriate P/E – a detailed, multi-faceted approach
beyond what could be described in this summary); and, that’s all they are,
projections. Beyond that time frame, your guess. On fraudulent wall street,
every day, though already discounted in large part (6-8 mos, approx.), the
market spins, churns, and with lightning fast computerized high-frequency trade
programs commissions in huge volumes like no other time in financial history
when real valuation meant something, with no net economic value added, but very
lucrative to the frauds on wall street, which ultimately is a net detriment to
the economy / the nation /and other industries as we’ve seen and as described
elsewhere on this site and in these posts http://albertpeia.com . Preposterously, they
even sometimes refer to seasonal factors as if hearing them for the first time
and ‘explaining’ an up move (almost invariably already discounted). Today, they
shrugged off the deepening economic reality despite the election year frothing
/ manipulations. This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market
in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in
a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national
decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the
wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and
disgorgement imposed. ].
Slowing economic rebound raises
unemployment fears (AP) [Wow! Talk about understatements!]
Marc Faber Questions if Dow
Could Hit 1,000 In the August edition of the ‘The Gloom, Boom
& Doom Report’ Marc Faber questions whether the Dow could hit 1,000 as predicted by Robert Prechter, based
on his interpretation of Elliot Waves, Fibonacci numbers and socioeconomic
trends. Prechter, who has written 13
books on finance (external link), believes
that the stock market is historically overvalued in terms of dividends and
earnings, because of a “great rise in positive social mood.” But the mood
changed in 2000 and the “trend toward negative social mood will lead to an
economic contraction,” according to Prechter. “Small bear markets lead to
recessions, big bear markets lead to depressions. The current bear market will be
the biggest in nearly 300 years, so the depression will be correspondingly
deep,” Prechter said.
Wall
St falls after weak outlooks drag (Reuters) U.S. stocks sagged in volatile
trading on Thursday after weak outlooks from technology companies and downbeat
comments from a Federal Reserve official gave investors little reason to buy.
Fed says some districts report slowing economy (Reuters)
Flaws of the European Stress Test … 'Bank stress test' became the magic phrase. Nothing calms fear
like a stress test that's labeled as rigorous. The stress test raises a few
very obvious questions: 1) Will it work? 2) Why was it needed in addition to a
$1 trillion aid package? 3) Is the stress test just a gimmick to appease
investors? The stress test is conducted by the London-based Committee of
European Banking Supervisors (CEBS). Ironically, the test has ignored the
majority of banks' holdings of sovereign debt. Sovereign debt concerns by the
so-called PIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain) triggered the
latest wave of financial problems. Ignoring sovereign debt in the Euro stress
test would be like ignoring toxic real estate assets in the U.S. 10%
Good - 90% Bad According to a Morgan Stanley survey, European banks hold about 90%
of their Greek government bonds in their banking books and 10% in their trading
books. The bonds in the banking book are generally held until maturity, the
bonds in the trading book are traded more frequently. According to a document
obtained by Bloomberg, the stress test assumes a loss of 23.1% on Greek debt,
14% on Portuguese bonds, 12.3% on Spanish debt, 4.7% on German debt, 10% on U.K.
debt, and 5.9% on French debt. However, the stress test only looks at the bonds
held in banks' trading books, which account for a mere 10% of Greek bond
holdings. Can that be called a stress test? Nouriel Roubini says that 'the
assumptions made about economic growth, about sovereign risk are not realistic
enough.' The fact that only seven banks failed the test with a combined
shortfall of $4.5 billion confirms the lax nature of the test. … The U.S. Bank Stress Test - A Nice Façade A closer look under the hood of
the U.S. bank stress test, however, shows that there's not much substance
behind the facade either. It was determined that the 19 tested U.S. banks need
to increase their balance sheets by $75 billion to meet the conditions of
what's termed the 'worst case scenario.' To a large extent, the $75 billion of
additional capital was financially engineered. Banks didn't have to actually
raise $75 billion. They were able to change the label of some of their assets
on their balance sheets. The government supported this practice via mandatory
convertible preferred shares (detailed analysis in May 2009 issue of the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter) …’
Moody's:
Regional banks on review for downgrade (AP)
Consumer
confidence dims (Reuters)
Job worries drove July U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest since
February, with one in six people expecting lower income in the next six months,
underscoring the precarious state of econo...
Global
steelmakers paint gloomy picture (Reuters)
US
bank failures in 2010 surpass 100
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. bank failures this year have surpassed a bleak
milestone of 100 as regulators shut down banks in Georgia, Florida, South
Carolina, Kansas, Nevada and Minnesota. The six bank seizures announced Friday
bring to 102 the failures so far in 2010. The pace of bank closures this year
is well ahead of that of last year, which saw a total 140 bank shuttered amid
the recession and mounting loan defaults …
On the Disconnect Between the Market and the Economy Michael Shulman:
(No recession helicopter ben) Bernanke Admits Major Policy Failures; Stocks Soar Darryl Montgomery What's wrong with this picture?
In his bi-annual testimony before Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke
admitted that after more than a year and a half of zero interest rates and $3
trillion in federal deficit spending since 2008, the best case
scenario for the U.S. economy is slow growth and high unemployment. The S&P
500 is up 2.5% so far this morning on this 'good' news. Bernanke's congressional testimony included the
following statements (emphasis added by me):
"Most [FOMC] participants viewed uncertainty
about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the
majority saw [at the June Fed meeting] the risks to growth as weighted to
the downside."
"Financial conditions--though much improved
since the depth of the financial crisis--have become less supportive of
economic growth in recent months."
"Many banks continue to have a large volume
of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight.
With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank
loans outstanding have continued to contract."
"After two years of job losses, private payrolls
expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this
year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially.
In all likelihood, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the
nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009."…
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Preparing
for World War III, Targeting Iran Humanity is at a dangerous crossroads.
War preparations to attack Iran are in “an advanced state of readiness”. Hi
tech weapons systems including nuclear warheads are fully deployed.
Pentagon tells WikiLeaks: "Do right thing" (Reuters) [Great
advice … if only the endless war, military complex based pentagon could take
it!] The Pentagon demanded on Thursday that whistle-blower web site WikiLeaks
immediately hand over about 15,000 secret Afghan war records it had not yet
published and erase material it had alrea…
Oliver
Stone has apologized for his anti-Semitic rant, but is the damage already done.
What damage? To perceived reality as opposed to reality? When you look at
america’s pro-israel, self-destructive, contra-indicated policies, including
the hands off policy vis-ŕ-vis fraudulent wall street, you see the truth to
what he says which is what so many astute individuals are already thinking /
realizing. How can people continue to ignore the truth, to their own detriment
Think about it. Do you really think he would risk the typical onslaught if the
same weren’t true? ‘Director Oliver
Stone has been forced to make a grovelling apology over an anti-Semitic
outburst. The double Academy Award winner claimed that the Russians suffered
more during the Second World War and that there was a Jewish 'domination of the
media'. Stone also said that Jews had '****ed up' U.S. foreign policy for years
and suggested the British supported Hitler ...’ The relentless attacks on Mel
Gibson are of the same caliber and purpose; suppression of truth!
WASHPOST
Ombudsman: Why Silence on Black Panther Story? (Washington Post) ‘Thursday's Post reported about a growing controversy
over the Justice
Department's decision to scale down a voter-intimidation case against members
of the New Black Panther Party. The story succinctly summarized the issues
but left many readers with a question: What took you so long? For months,
readers have contacted the ombudsman wondering why The Post hasn't been
covering the case. The calls increased recently after competitors such as the New
York Times and the Associated Press wrote stories. Fox News and right-wing
bloggers have been pumping the story. Liberal bloggers have countered, accusing
them of trying to manufacture a scandal. But The Post has been virtually
silent. The story has its origins on Election Day in 2008, when two members of
the New Black Panther Party stood in front of a Philadelphia polling place. YouTube
video of the men, now viewed nearly 1.5 million times, shows both wearing
paramilitary clothing. One carried a nightstick…’
Latino
KKK: You are too white to be American! ALIPAC | Tan
Klan woman can scream racist comments because the Obama administration and most
of the major news networks in America have her back.
Drudgereport:
NEW
LOW FOR O: USATODAYGALLUP HAS OBAMA APPROVE AT 41%...
WELCOME
TO THE RECOVERY...
JULY
UNEMPLOYMENT -131,000 JOBS...
Revised: May/June -97,000 jobs than first reported...
Odd
mix of bad news...
Michelle
Obama 'modern-day Marie Antoinette'...
MICHELLE
O'S $375,000 VACATION?!
Strolls
Marbella after State Dept. 'racist' Spaniards gaffe...
GALLUP:
Blacks and Whites Continue to Differ Sharply on Obama...
JUDGE
KNOCKS DOWN MARRIAGE PROP IN CA
BLOW
TO O: MO SAYS NO
Voters
overwhelmingly rejected federal mandate to purchase health insurance...
Americans
swap passports; Desire to avoid tax leads some to renounce citizenship...
Ahmadinejad
survives blast near motorcade...
'Stupid
Zionists have hired mercenaries to assassinate me'...
FALTERING RECOVERY TRIPS DOLLAR...
GM,
FORD and CHRYSLER Sales All Lag Estimates...
Stimulus
Slammed: Republican Senators Release Report Alleging Waste...
The
100 worst stimulus projects...
SHOCK
VIDEO: DEM CONGRESSMAN BRAGS: 'FEDERAL GOVERNMENT CAN DO MOST ANYTHING IN THIS
COUNTRY'...
Deadliest Month Of Afghan War
Paper:
Will Washington's Failures Lead To Second American Revolution
Maxine
Waters faces trial over bank bailout funds...
HOT WATERS
Dems
Say Sorry, Charlie...
Democrats
Say Rangel Should Resign...
Obama:
Time For Rangel To End Career 'With Dignity'...
Dutch
become 1st NATO member to quit Afghanistan...
Stepping Aside Because I Can Always
Buy Back In Leigh Drogen ‘I sold out of everything this
morning, for a few reasons. Either I’ve been in the wrong names or just caught
a bad tape there, either way my long exposure was not performing the way it
should have been. One after another I’ve seen gains get torn away from me by
stocks gapping down overnight on news or whatever it may be. Frankly, it
doesn’t matter, the only thing that does is the bottom line. It’s ok to be
wrong in this business, in fact my trading style is wrong almost half the time,
the key is to take your stops and move on, because at the end of the day the
winners, if you play them right, will far and away make up for the half of your
trades that don’t work.
First, breakouts don’t always work and momentum stocks have a habit of
ending their trends abruptly.
Second, I can always step back in, I don’t run 5 billion dollars, I
don’t move stocks, I can buy back in this afternoon if I change my mind (not
likely). I see more risk to the downside here than I do to the upside. Short
term the market doesn’t look bad, we are still above a rising 5 day moving
average and pushing up against a big resistance level going back to June. But,
in the larger scheme of things I don’t think we crack this level on the first
shot, I think we need a pullback here to regroup and gain more energy. As well,
on the intermediate term time frame, the market is showing a rising wedge
technical pattern, a bearish pattern. No, I’m not calling here for a complete
roll over as I did back in early April, I’m just saying that the risk here is
to the downside and with my underperformance as of late I’m just not confident
enough to be pushing the pedal to the floor at these levels.
Third, the jobs number tomorrow scares me. No, it doesn’t matter what
the number is, we all know it’s going to be bad, what matters is how the market
reacts, and I have the feel it’s not going to be good.
Fourth, many of my oscillators are overbought here.
Fifth, and finally, I don’t like the fact that this rally has primarily
taken place on the back of the most beaten down sectors. We haven’t seen tech,
the leader, make a big move. The oil service names, steel names, agriculture
names, and transports have fueled this rally. They were very very oversold in
early July and needed to bounce, now that they have reverted back to the mean
so to speak, what now? Where is the next leadership, I still don’t see rotation
back into tech, the semis are still stuck in the mud and breakouts in momentum
names are failing.
It all just doesn’t pass the smell test for me. I’ve been successful at this
not because I’m always right, but because I know when I’m wrong and I’m willing
to change course or step aside. Right now, I’ll step aside.’
Were Unemployment Claims Really So 'Unexpected'?
YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]:
‘A bleak weekly jobless claims count caused consternation ahead of tomorrow's
pivotal nonfarm payrolls report. Stocks responded by plodding along with modest
losses for the entire session. Initial jobless claims for the week ended July
31 to a three-month high of 479,000, which was worse than the expected initial
claims count of 455,000. Continuing claims came down 34,000 from the prior
week, but they remain at uncomfortably high levels above 4.5 million. Even
though the weekly claims figures will not play a part in the calculation of the
July payrolls report, which is due tomorrow, the data stirred concern that the
report might not show the improvement that some had hoped for following a
better-than-expected ADP Employment Change reading yesterday …’
Equities Reflect Caution Ahead of
Jobs Report Midnight Trader 4:22 PM, Aug 5,
2010 --
GLOBAL
SENTIMENT
UPSIDE
MOVERS
(+) KSS says July same-store sales up 4.1%, raises earnings view.
(+) VLNC reports improved Q1 from year-ago result.
(+) PCS beats with Q2 results.
(+) HUN easily tops with Q2 results.
(+) HAUP launches high def video support for Windows Media Center.
(+) GPS sales up, guides for earnings below Stret view.
(+) KLIC beats with earnings and guides for sales above Street.
(+) M says July sales up 7.3%.
(+) ANF sales up 7%.
(+) BP up on cap progress.
(+) MF beats with Q1 earnings.
(+) LIZ results mostly positive, misses with revenue.
DOWNSIDE MOVERS
(-) JCP says same-store sales slip, expects Q2 EPS at low end of
range.
(-) ALXA prices shares.
(-) ARO cuts EPS outlook.
(-) SD down despite earnings beat.
(-) BCS down as earnings about in line.
(-) UN extends European decline to US action after latest earnings.
(-) GYMB sales miss.
MARKET DIRECTION
Stock averages improve late to end barely down. Wall Street traded in soggy
fashion after a surprise rise in weekly jobless benefits applications and mixed
retail sales results. Plus, caution persists ahead of Friday's jobs report. Oil
closed down 0.6% though ending off session lows. September futures settled at
$82.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Natural gas for September
delivery slumped 3% to close at $4.60 per million British thermal units.
Natural gas futures lost grip of earlier gains despite a government report
showing a smaller-than-expected increase in inventories for the week ended July
30. Stocks have gained without much of a pause since hitting lows for the year
on July 2. The broad S&P 500 is up 10% since that day. Earnings news
continues to be largely supportive but economic data can be sobering. The
number of people applying for initial unemployment benefits climbed by 19,000
to 479,000 in the latest week. Economists expected a drop in claims. The less-volatile
four-week average of initial claims rose by 5,250 to 453,250. The number of
workers who continue to receive state unemployment checks, meanwhile, fell by
34,000 to 4.54 million in the week ended July 24, the latest data available.
Economists polled by Reuters are expecting Friday's U.S. Labor Department
report to show a drop of 65,000 in non-farm payrolls in July as temporary U.S.
Census Bureau jobs dried up. Private employers are expected to have added
90,000 jobs. Consumers remain one of the bigger question marks in the recovery.
Retailers reported July same-store sales results today. The 28 retailers
tracked by Thomson Reuters reported July same-store sales rose only 2.9%, short
of analysts' expectations for a 3.1% gain.
Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) and
Limited Brands Inc.(LTD)
reported big jumps in July sales, but the gain was deceiving because last
year's results were poor. Costco is down 1.83% and Limited is up 0.42%. In company news, the Android software from
Google Inc. (GOOG) will likely outpace Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) iPhone in the number of phones in use
worldwide by 2012, reports tech industry research firm iSuppli. Android
software will likely reside in 75 million smart phones by then while iPhone will
be used in 62 million, according to the report. Drugmakers led by Pfizer Inc. (PFE) could soon be able to shrink the amount
of time it takes to test a drug's safety by months to years after it, along
with other companies, get access to a new testing system, according to
Bloomberg. That could add millions of dollars in revenue and savings on
research, according to the report. The new system uses computers to test
produicts against human and animal cells instead of living organisms and was
developed by the federal government, the report says. The June quarter earnings
season rolled from yesterday's after-hours session to this morning before the
bell. Viacom Inc. (VIA) is
struggling in the red in early trading, down 1.56%, but off its early low of
$37.06, after reporting Q2 net income of $420 million, or 69 cents per share,
compared with $277 million, or 46 cents per share, last year. Analysts were
looking for a consensus 66 cents per share on Thomson Reuters. Overall revenue
was flat at $3.3 billion, below analysts' call for $3.4 billion.Meanwhile, The
Gymboree Corp. (GYMB) reports Q2
sales of $219.3 mln, below the analyst mean of $233 million on Thomson Reuters.
Hartford Financial Services (HIG)
shares are down sharply on earlier news the seller of life insurance said
earnings per share for the year would be $2.10 to $2.30 this year instead of
the previous target of $2.70 to $3, according to a Bloomberg report. Second
quarter income was $76 million or $0.14 a share compared with a loss of $15
million or $0.06. Playboy Enterprises (PLA) shares are lower after the company said
June quarter losses were wider than expected due to declines in revenue from
print and digital segments, according to a Reuters report. Net loss at the
company narrowed to $5.4 million, or 16 cents per share, from $8.7 million, or
26 cents per share, a year ago. Still, analysts were expecting a loss of $0.15 a
share on sales of $58 million, according to Thomson Reuters.
WE’RE UNDERESTIMATING THE BEARISH POTENTIAL , August 3, 2010
’… Will Anything Stop the Market? Something Did
… At the same
time, the April numbers were lowered the second time by an additional 24,000
units, while May sales were revised lower by 33,000 units. To summarize, April
and May sales were reduced by 57,000 units. Therefore, June sales were 24%
above May sales. By the way, May sales were the lowest on record. Is this
really reason to celebrate? But wait, there's more. The S&P Case-Shiller
Composite Home Price Index inched from 144.59 to 146.43 for May, a 1.25%
increase. Many are unaware that the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is a three
month average and is released with a two month lag. The most recent 3-month
average as of May included the period when buyers still received their $8,000
tax credit. As the chart below shows, despite a 80%+ rally in equities,
trillions worth of stimulus money, $8,000 home-buyers tax credit, and a lot of
hot air, the Case-Shiller Index has only risen 6 points, or 5.15%, from its
March 2009 low and remains 30% below its 2006 high. [chart]
Banks' Toxic Assets: It's no secret that the economy started choking because
banks gorged on toxic real estate assets. As the real estate related losses
piled up, banks got into trouble and started hording their meager funds and
lending dried up. Since then, banks have taken free government money and
invested it in various Treasuries. Even yields for short and long-term
treasuries (NYSEArca: TLT - News)
have fallen, and banks have been earning interest without risk, while
businesses can't obtain funding. Another income source for banks has been
securities trading. But, since stocks have fallen, so have banks' trading
revenue, meanwhile banks' real estate portfolios remain unchanged. Unemployment
is persistent and foreclosures continue to soar. Thus far, free interest and
rising stocks have covered up the losses racked up by banks' portfolios of
toxic assets. But the weak link (falling real estate prices) has not been
fixed. Once pressure is put on the chain, it will break again. The problems
within the financial sector have been visible all along. 106 banks, many of
them regional banks (NYSEArca: KRE - News),
have failed already in 2010. At the same time last year, only 65 banks failed.
An additional 775 banks are on the FDIC's problem bank list. Unlike Wall Street
and the financial media, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter bothers to take a
look under the hood and examine the engines that drive the economy. It's quite
obvious that a number of pistons have blown, the engine is sputtering but the
car is rolling downhill. Once the next hill comes, the car (aka the economy)
will come to a standstill. AAA can't fix blown pistons, neither can the
government.
The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
regularly and consistently monitors and analysis technical, fundamental,
sentiment and valuation gauges to formulate detailed short, mid and long-term
forecasts, along with a target for the ultimate market bottom. ‘
Temporary
Firehouse Closures Begin In Philadelphia CBS
3 | The
city of Philadelphia has started temporarily closing fire stations in order to
balance its budget.
Warning Signs Suggest Market Headed for Another Collapse
In early January 2008, I had a very troubling conversation with
my colleague at Matrix Analytix regarding a significant warning sign suggesting
that a major crisis loomed on the horizon of the equity markets that year. The
content of our conversation was focused on the implications of a massive
one-year head & shoulders on the S&P 500 (SPY). The issue consistently
pervaded my mind because if what the equity markets seemed to signal was true,
we were probably headed for a major collapse. I remember asking him
specifically, “Can this be for real? What are the implications of a head &
shoulders of that magnitude completely unwinding?”My colleague all but
confirmed my concerns even pointing to a potential culprit for the impending
downturn. He had noted that the markets had all but brushed off early warnings
of systemic risk and liquidity concerns posed by the potential failure of
subprime MBS’s that August, and that such concerns were likely to resurface in
2008. I, for one, didn’t really care what the potential culprit may be. For me,
the fact that market technicals suggested that an impending failure was drawing
near formed the basis of my concerns.The fact that market participants,
investors, and the mainstream media continued to put their heads in the sand
and ignore such blatant signs of the broader market was simply unacceptable. At
the time, the S&P 500 had rallied nearly 35% over the past 2 years. There
was rampant discussion of Dow (DIA) 18,000 as the market continued to “benefit”
from the so-called “Goldilocks economy.” Almost everyone was either oblivious
to the warning signs of the broader market or simply decided to ignore them.
Turn the page to
today, and it’s the same story all over again. While investors, fund managers,
and the mainstream financial media debate whether we’re headed for a double-dip
recession, they simply continue to disregard the obvious technical damage done
on the broader market. Once again, this article is not so much concerned with
the potential fundamental reasons or theories advanced as to why the markets
might unravel. Instead, I’m more concerned with what the broader market seems
to be telling me about the immediate future.
One can find no
shortage of fundamental or mechanical theories explaining what might form the
basis of a future financial collapse published at Zero Hedge, by Nassim
Nicholas Taleb, Nouriel Roubini or Karl Denninger. In fact, I buy into a lot of
the evidence presented by these sources, and believe that one gains a better
grasp of financial reality spending 10 minutes with Zero Hedge than spending 2
weeks listening to the mainstream financial media. It is laughable to compare
the vacant drivel coming out of Dennis Kneale to even one single article
published by Tyler Durden or Ryan Iskander.
Once again, right now
I’m focused on what the trading activity in the broader market seems to be
telling me rather than on what the fundamentals of the economy or the
mechanical structure of the markets indicate. The techncials suggest, as they
did in early 2008, that there is something fundamentally wrong with the
financial markets and that a collapse, whatever the fundamental reasons may be,
is potentially drawing near. There are seven issues I’ll briefly discuss below,
and why it's imperative that my readers should explore these issues in more
detail.
1. HEAD &
SHOULDERS ON THE S&P 500, DOW JONES, AND NASDAQ
The biggest warning
sign the market seems to be giving us right now is the blatant 10-month head
& shoulders formation seen on each of the major indices. Like in 2008, a
massive head & shoulders of this magnitude is not something that investors
ought to take lightly. Millions chose to ignore this warning sign in 2008 at
their peril. I’m not going to sit here and belabor the point as I’ve already
written extensively on this topic, which could be found here.Yet, to summarize,
a head & shoulders formation is arguably the most bearish technical
formation in the books. The time, breadth and size of this head & shoulders
is exactly the same as what we saw in early 2008 just before entering the
biggest bear market in modern history …
[chart]
2. BULLISH FLAG ON
THE VIX?
Almost as important
as the head & shoulders on every broad market index and exchange is the
huge bullish flag on the VIX, VXN and VXX (VXX). Volatility looks like it's
about to explode higher in the September to October time frame. A convergence
of the upper and lower trend lines appears to take place near the end of
August. This certainly does not bode well for the markets. An explosion of
volatility can only be viewed as conclusively negative for the markets. We
can’t have a massive spike in volatility without a coinciding collapse in the
equity markets …
[chart]
3.
THE DEATH-CROSS ON THE S&P SUGGESTS THE 2009 TO 2010 RALLY MIGHT BE OVER
This topic has already
been written about quite extensively over the past few weeks. As you may or may
not be aware, the 50-day moving average crossed under the 200-day on the
S&P 500 signaling that the March 2009 to April 2010 bull market might be at
an end. When the 50 and 200 days cross in this manner, it suggests that the
overall trend has weakened to such a degree that the recent price action is
viewed as a topping process for the markets. We saw this exact same bearish
cross on the S&P 500 in early January 2008 right at the start of the great
bear market. You can read more about the death-cross here, here and here …
4. THE VOLUMELESS
RALLY & MUTUAL FUND OUTFLOWS
Arguably one of the
biggest warning signs suggesting that the entire 2009 to 2010 advance is just a
bear market rally arises from the fact that the move was done on increasingly
less volume. The clear lack of conviction indicates that the move was
orchestrated by very few market participants. Some have advocated that the 2009
to 2010 rally was performed under the complete control of the federal reserve
or by high frequency traders in either a ploy to combat deflation or by fixing
the odds of the market to favor the very few. If Goldman Sachs (GS) posting
gains every day in Q1 isn’t enough evidence that the game is fixed, I don’t
know what is.
Every down move in
the market is done on massive volume, and every up move on little to no volume.
Each day of the February to April melt-up rally was easy to predict. When
volume tanks, the market rises and volume picks up, the market tanks. What kind
of no-conviction fraudulent market rallies on zero volume and tanks on heavy
volume? Even the July bounce to this correction was done on low volume. Down
days in July exhibited huge volume while up days saw declining participation.
This lack of
conviction in the equity markets is further evidenced by the disconcertingly
significant mutual fund outflows seen over the past year. Tyler Durden notes in
an article posted at Zero Hedge last week:
The latest update
from ICI is a doozy: in the week ended July 21, domestic equity mutual funds
saw a 12th sequential outflow of $1.5 billion. Even as the market has surged
10% in the last three weeks, just under $10 billion have been redeemed from
mutual funds, completely invalidating the move and further justifying the
skeptics who see absolutely no reflection to reality in the volumeless ramp
orchestrated by a few momentum HFTs and a couple of Primary Dealers with some
excess leftover Discount Window change. Not to mention that 12 weeks in a row
of outflows pretty much marks game over as far as retail participation is
concerned in stocks…
[chart]
5. 1,000 POINT FLASH
CRASHES
Adding to the
concerns of low volume and mutual fund outflows, if 1,000-point inter-day
swings in the Dow doesn’t raise a clear red flag to investors that the
mechanics of the market is under fire, then clearly nothing can convince the
average investor to consider caution in the coming months. Whether the
so-called “flash-crash” was the result of some questionable “fat-finger” trade
or the result of everyone putting in stop losses at the same level on the
S&P (which I warned about 7-minutes prior to the crash see here) is
anyone’s guess…
[chart]
6. BOND MARKET
DISTRUSTFUL OF THE RALLY
…
7. MARKET LEADERSHIP
IS WEAKENING
[chart] … ‘
Stocks' Late Push: Some
Optimism, Some Pessimism [Late
push … as in a constipated bowel movement … Come on! Another one of those push
the computer programmed trade button and off we go, reality / valuation /
economics be damned. In real security analysis (very simplified / summarized),
as opposed to the continued frauds on wall street, one must begin with the
largest and most significant aggregate (a simple word picture / analogy:
‘rising tide lifts all boats’). If you get this right, the probabilities in
your favor are substantially enhanced. From there, you want leading industries,
and leading companies within said leading industries (again, larger aggregates
then picks, to enhance probabilities, not guarantees, in your favor). Your time
frame, 1-3-5 yrs tops for projections, (including income statement/EPS, balance
sheet, and applying an appropriate P/E – a detailed, multi-faceted approach
beyond what could be described in this summary); and, that’s all they are,
projections. Beyond that time frame, your guess. On fraudulent wall street,
every day, though already discounted in large part (6-8 mos, approx.), the
market spins, churns, and with lightning fast computerized high-frequency trade
programs commissions in huge volumes like no other time in financial history
when real valuation meant something, with no net economic value added, but very
lucrative to the frauds on wall street, which ultimately is a net detriment to
the economy / the nation /and other industries as we’ve seen and as described
elsewhere on this site and in these posts http://albertpeia.com . Preposterously, they
even sometimes refer to seasonal factors as if hearing them for the first time
and ‘explaining’ an up move (almost invariably already discounted). Today, they
shrugged off the deepening economic reality despite the election year frothing
/ manipulations. This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market
in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in
a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and
insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn
pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline,
economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the wall
street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement
imposed. ].
Slowing economic rebound raises
unemployment fears (AP) [Wow! Talk about understatements!]
Marc Faber Questions if Dow
Could Hit 1,000 In the August edition of the ‘The Gloom, Boom
& Doom Report’ Marc Faber questions whether the Dow could hit 1,000 as predicted by Robert Prechter, based
on his interpretation of Elliot Waves, Fibonacci numbers and socioeconomic
trends. Prechter, who has written 13
books on finance (external link), believes
that the stock market is historically overvalued in terms of dividends and
earnings, because of a “great rise in positive social mood.” But the mood
changed in 2000 and the “trend toward negative social mood will lead to an
economic contraction,” according to Prechter. “Small bear markets lead to
recessions, big bear markets lead to depressions. The current bear market will
be the biggest in nearly 300 years, so the depression will be correspondingly
deep,” Prechter said.
Wall
St falls after weak outlooks drag (Reuters) U.S. stocks sagged in volatile
trading on Thursday after weak outlooks from technology companies and downbeat
comments from a Federal Reserve official gave investors little reason to buy.
Fed says some districts report slowing economy (Reuters)
Flaws of the European Stress Test … 'Bank stress test' became the magic phrase. Nothing calms fear
like a stress test that's labeled as rigorous. The stress test raises a few
very obvious questions: 1) Will it work? 2) Why was it needed in addition to a
$1 trillion aid package? 3) Is the stress test just a gimmick to appease
investors? The stress test is conducted by the London-based Committee of
European Banking Supervisors (CEBS). Ironically, the test has ignored the
majority of banks' holdings of sovereign debt. Sovereign debt concerns by the
so-called PIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain) triggered the
latest wave of financial problems. Ignoring sovereign debt in the Euro stress
test would be like ignoring toxic real estate assets in the U.S. 10%
Good - 90% Bad According to a Morgan Stanley survey, European banks hold about 90%
of their Greek government bonds in their banking books and 10% in their trading
books. The bonds in the banking book are generally held until maturity, the
bonds in the trading book are traded more frequently. According to a document
obtained by Bloomberg, the stress test assumes a loss of 23.1% on Greek debt,
14% on Portuguese bonds, 12.3% on Spanish debt, 4.7% on German debt, 10% on
U.K. debt, and 5.9% on French debt. However, the stress test only looks at the
bonds held in banks' trading books, which account for a mere 10% of Greek bond
holdings. Can that be called a stress test? Nouriel Roubini says that 'the
assumptions made about economic growth, about sovereign risk are not realistic
enough.' The fact that only seven banks failed the test with a combined
shortfall of $4.5 billion confirms the lax nature of the test. … The U.S. Bank Stress Test - A Nice Façade A closer look under the hood of
the U.S. bank stress test, however, shows that there's not much substance
behind the facade either. It was determined that the 19 tested U.S. banks need
to increase their balance sheets by $75 billion to meet the conditions of
what's termed the 'worst case scenario.' To a large extent, the $75 billion of
additional capital was financially engineered. Banks didn't have to actually
raise $75 billion. They were able to change the label of some of their assets
on their balance sheets. The government supported this practice via mandatory
convertible preferred shares (detailed analysis in May 2009 issue of the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter) …’
Moody's:
Regional banks on review for downgrade (AP)
Consumer
confidence dims (Reuters)
Job worries drove July U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest since
February, with one in six people expecting lower income in the next six months,
underscoring the precarious state of econo...
Global
steelmakers paint gloomy picture (Reuters)
US
bank failures in 2010 surpass 100
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. bank failures this year have surpassed a bleak
milestone of 100 as regulators shut down banks in Georgia, Florida, South
Carolina, Kansas, Nevada and Minnesota. The six bank seizures announced Friday
bring to 102 the failures so far in 2010. The pace of bank closures this year
is well ahead of that of last year, which saw a total 140 bank shuttered amid
the recession and mounting loan defaults …
On the Disconnect Between the Market and the Economy Michael Shulman:
(No recession helicopter ben) Bernanke Admits Major Policy Failures; Stocks Soar Darryl Montgomery What's wrong with this picture?
In his bi-annual testimony before Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke
admitted that after more than a year and a half of zero interest rates and $3
trillion in federal deficit spending since 2008, the best case
scenario for the U.S. economy is slow growth and high unemployment. The S&P
500 is up 2.5% so far this morning on this 'good' news. Bernanke's congressional testimony included the
following statements (emphasis added by me):
"Most [FOMC] participants viewed uncertainty
about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the
majority saw [at the June Fed meeting] the risks to growth as weighted to
the downside."
"Financial conditions--though much improved
since the depth of the financial crisis--have become less supportive of
economic growth in recent months."
"Many banks continue to have a large volume
of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight.
With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank
loans outstanding have continued to contract."
"After two years of job losses, private payrolls
expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this
year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially.
In all likelihood, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the
nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009."…
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Preparing
for World War III, Targeting Iran Humanity is at a dangerous crossroads.
War preparations to attack Iran are in “an advanced state of readiness”. Hi
tech weapons systems including nuclear warheads are fully deployed.
Pentagon tells WikiLeaks: "Do right thing" (Reuters) [Great
advice … if only the endless war, military complex based pentagon could take
it!] The Pentagon demanded on Thursday that whistle-blower web site WikiLeaks
immediately hand over about 15,000 secret Afghan war records it had not yet
published and erase material it had alrea…
Oliver
Stone has apologized for his anti-Semitic rant, but is the damage already done.
What damage? To perceived reality as opposed to reality? When you look at
america’s pro-israel, self-destructive, contra-indicated policies, including
the hands off policy vis-ŕ-vis fraudulent wall street, you see the truth to
what he says which is what so many astute individuals are already thinking /
realizing. How can people continue to ignore the truth, to their own detriment
Think about it. Do you really think he would risk the typical onslaught if the
same weren’t true? ‘Director Oliver
Stone has been forced to make a grovelling apology over an anti-Semitic
outburst. The double Academy Award winner claimed that the Russians suffered
more during the Second World War and that there was a Jewish 'domination of the
media'. Stone also said that Jews had '****ed up' U.S. foreign policy for years
and suggested the British supported Hitler ...’ The relentless attacks on Mel
Gibson are of the same caliber and purpose; suppression of truth!
WASHPOST
Ombudsman: Why Silence on Black Panther Story? (Washington Post) ‘Thursday's Post reported about a growing
controversy over the Justice
Department's decision to scale down a voter-intimidation case against members
of the New Black Panther Party. The story succinctly summarized the issues
but left many readers with a question: What took you so long? For months, readers
have contacted the ombudsman wondering why The Post hasn't been covering the
case. The calls increased recently after competitors such as the New York Times
and the Associated Press wrote stories. Fox News and right-wing bloggers have
been pumping the story. Liberal bloggers have countered, accusing them of
trying to manufacture a scandal. But The Post has been virtually silent. The
story has its origins on Election Day in 2008, when two members of the New
Black Panther Party stood in front of a Philadelphia polling place. YouTube
video of the men, now viewed nearly 1.5 million times, shows both wearing
paramilitary clothing. One carried a nightstick…’
Latino
KKK: You are too white to be American! ALIPAC | Tan
Klan woman can scream racist comments because the Obama administration and most
of the major news networks in America have her back.
Drudgereport:
NEW
LOW FOR O: USATODAYGALLUP HAS OBAMA APPROVE AT 41%...
Michelle
Obama 'modern-day Marie Antoinette'...
Strolls
Marbella after State Dept. 'racist' Spaniards gaffe...
GALLUP:
Blacks and Whites Continue to Differ Sharply on Obama...
JUDGE
KNOCKS DOWN MARRIAGE PROP IN CA
BLOW
TO O: MO SAYS NO
Voters
overwhelmingly rejected federal mandate to purchase health insurance...
Americans
swap passports; Desire to avoid tax leads some to renounce citizenship...
Ahmadinejad
survives blast near motorcade...
'Stupid
Zionists have hired mercenaries to assassinate me'...
FALTERING RECOVERY TRIPS DOLLAR...
GM,
FORD and CHRYSLER Sales All Lag Estimates...
Stimulus
Slammed: Republican Senators Release Report Alleging Waste...
The
100 worst stimulus projects...
SHOCK
VIDEO: DEM CONGRESSMAN BRAGS: 'FEDERAL GOVERNMENT CAN DO MOST ANYTHING IN THIS
COUNTRY'...
Deadliest Month Of Afghan War
Paper:
Will Washington's Failures Lead To Second American Revolution
Maxine
Waters faces trial over bank bailout funds...
HOT WATERS
Dems
Say Sorry, Charlie...
Democrats
Say Rangel Should Resign...
Obama:
Time For Rangel To End Career 'With Dignity'...
Dutch
become 1st NATO member to quit Afghanistan...
GATES:
Few U.S. troops to leave in 2011 … Sounds like a … no plan! ...
JOINT CHIEFS CHAIRMAN: Defacto bankrupt u.s. has Iran strike plan
Riiight! … new war plan the u.s. plan for dealing with failed plans ...
Gdp:
2.4%
Mediocre
Growth...
Recession
Deeper Than Gov't Previously Thought...
Nyt:
Employment Outlook Fades...
Prince
Charles: 'My Duty Is To Save The World' … Well, so much for that. There Goes
The World! ...
AP:
A bleaker outlook for economy into 2011...
Rangel
faces 13 ethics charges...
(wobama) Calls
African-Americans a 'mongrel people'...
'We
are now in the trial phase'...
Catalonia (Dali, Picasso,
etc.) bans bullfighting (very civilized)...
CLAIM: Giant asteroid on
course to hit Earth...
SEC Says New
FinReg Law Exempts It From Public Disclosure...
Oprah Hits All-Time Ratings
Low- like O -- Again!
GOLDMAN reveals where
bailout cash went -- overseas banks!
POLLS:
NEW LOWS FOR O...
Top U.S. officer
warns Afghan war will get worse...
Bank
failure tally passes 100 for year...
BUDGET DEFICIT TO REACH RECORD $1.47 TRILLION...
WH: A 'FISCAL SITUATION THAT REQUIRES
ATTENTION'...
Kerry
Docks New Yacht In RI To Duck MA Taxes...
PRICE
TO ATTEND OBAMA'S BIRTHDAY BASH: $30,000...
CHARLIE
RANGEL CHARGED WILL
FACE TRIAL
RACE
MESS: Obama Said Vilsack 'Jumped Gun' on Woman's Ouster...
Buchanan:
Obama team's panic over losing whites...
POLL: ANY REPUBLICAN WOULD
BEAT OBAMA IN '12...
Whites, Independents
Deserting Obama...
PACK
YOUR BAGS: CONGRESS CONFIDENCE AT 11%...
BAILOUT REACHES $3.7
TRILLION...
Gov't watchdogs: Mortgage
program not working...
Bernanke: 'Unusually Uncertain'...
Unemployment rate high
through Obama term...
Developing... NYT:
WORKERS ON DOOMED RIG VOICED CONCERN ON SAFETY...
Arab
guilty of rape after consensual sex with Jew...
Come on! Preposterous!
Service sector? You mean the the b*** s*** sector. Even if believed (I don’t
believe anything they say, and at the least all must be discounted down, as
they do later when people have forgotten that’s the purported reason they
rallied), what is 17,000 service (predominantly b*** s*** government bought
jobs with non-existent deficit building funds with some exceptions – yes, 80%
of america’s economy is now b*** s*** and as on wall street, fraud) jobs in the
relative scheme of things given the magnitude of the problems, structural and
otherwise? Nothing! Stocks went up on typically spun ‘nothing’.
YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]: .A
better-than-expected ADP Employment reading and a stronger-than-expected ISM
Service Index gave stocks a lift, but caution ahead of other pivotal jobs data
limited gains until an afternoon bid lifted the major averages out of their
trading ranges to a solid finish. The July ADP Employment Change showed that
42,000 jobs were added to private payrolls last month. Given that the increase
was greater than the 25,000 additions that had been widely expected, some hope
that the official nonfarm payrolls figures will be stronger than currently
forecast when they are released Friday morning. Before that, participants must
digest the latest weekly initial jobless claims count, which is due tomorrow
morning. While the ADP data gave stocks a positive start this session, gains
grew when the July ISM Service Index came in at 54.3, which bested the 53.0
that had been expected. However, gains were dashed when stocks ran into
resistance near the stock market's weekly high and rumors surfaced that China's
regulators have requested stress tests of their banks. The alleged tests would
consider a 60% decline in residential property prices. That prompted some
concern about how the possibility of plummeting property prices in China would
hurt the global recovery. Though there was no real leadership to speak of,
stocks fought off efforts to take them into the red. They then chopped along
with modest gains before gradually climbing into the close …’
Japan, the U.S., Bubbles and Deflation
Midnight
Trader ‘4:22 PM, Aug 4, 2010 --
GLOBAL
SENTIMENT
UPSIDE MOVERS
(+) SIRI boosts FY outlook.
(+) BKS exploring possible sale.
(+) ARIA swings to profit.
(+) DGIT beats Q2 estimates.
(+) DNDN misses Q2 estimates but says Provenge sales
growing.
(+) FTLK postpones share offering.
(+) XOMA gets orphan drug status for Behcet
treatment.
(+) SQNM gets upgrade.
(+) MOT gains as FT says tablet in the works.
(+) XJT sold to SkyWest for $6.75/share.
(+) SOLF upgraded.
(+) GRMN beats with earnings.
DOWNSIDE MOVERS
(-) BP down despite progress with mud fix.
(-) DSCO loss meets Street view.
(-) SMCI misses with earnings.
MARKET
DIRECTION
Stock averages extended gains in the last stretch of
Wednesday's session, ending up 0.4%-0.9%. Improved economic data and mostly
upbeat earnings and guidance helped stocks recovery from Tuesday declines.
Gains followed upbeat reports on private-sector
hiring conditions and the services economy though caution persists after
Monday's sharp gains and ahead of Friday's Labor Department jobs report.
Earnings news was mostly positive.
Oil closes lower but ends above $82 a barrel. The
dollar is firmer for the first day in six but remains near a 15-year low
against the yen. Gold gains but is shy of the $1,200 mark.
Ahead of the open, ADP said private employers added
42,000 jobs last month, slightly better the forecasts of economists polled by
Thomson Reuters.
Meanwhile, the ISM's service sector index, covering
the biggest component of the U.S. economy, rose to 54.3 in July from 53.8 in
June. That's better than the 53 expected; any reading above 50 indicates
growth.
In company news:
Two late-stage studies of an experimental hepatitis C
drug from Merck & Co. (MRK) met two main effectiveness goals,
according to Reuters. Merck expects to seek approval for boceprevir--a drug
gained by Merck through its acquisition of Schering-Plough--by the end of the
year, the report said.
Intel Corp. (INTC)
reportedly settled with the U.S. Federal Trade Commission in an arrangement
where Intel can't retaliate against computer makers who do business with non-Intel
suppliers, according to a Wall Street Journal report of the deal. Additionally,
Intel can't make benefits to computer makers in exchange for their agreement to
only buy chips from Intel.
Motorola (MOT) is up after investor Carl Icahn again raised his
stake in the company. Icahn raised his shareholding to 9.99% from 8.75% in May,
according to a U.S. regulatory filing dated yesterday. The billionaire investor
held 5.15% of MOT at the end of last year.
Shares of HSBC (HBC)
are lower on word that American authorities are probing the U.S. division of
the bank regarding its compliance with anti-money laundering procedures,
Reuters reported, citing a regulatory filing. According to the filing with the
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, HSBC has reportedly received subpoenas
and other requests for information, the report said.
Barnes & Noble (BKS)
is higher after it announced it would explore strategic alternatives, including
a possible sale. The company's board said it came to this decision based on the
price of Barnes & Noble shares in the marketplace, which the board believes
are now significantly undervalued.
Pfizer (PFE) reportedly opted to not file an infringement
lawsuit against DepoMed (DEPO) over gabapentin, a drug to treat epileptic
seizures, according to a Reuters report. While the news is as expected, it
removes an overhang from Depomed shares, according to Roth Capital Partners.
ExpressJet Holdings (XJT),
parent company of regional and charter airline operator, ExpressJet Airlines,
Inc., today announced that it signed a definitive merger agreement with SkyWest,
Inc. (SKYW).
SkyWest will acquire all of the outstanding common shares of ExpressJet for
$6.75 per share in cash, or $133 million, subject to the conditions of the
definitive merger agreement.
In earnings news, Internet company AOL (AOL) reported a
$9.89 per share loss in Q2 based on a $1.4 billion accounting charge for social
networking site Bebo. The company made $0.86 per share a year earlier. AOL says
revenue fell 26% to $584.1 million. The Thomson Reuters survey called for $610
million in revenue.
Time Warner (TWX)
shares are higher after the company reported a second quarter profit helped by
improved advertising and box office sales. Time Warner reported second quarter
net income of $562 million, or $0.49 a share, for the three months ended June
30. That was up from $524 million, or $0.43, a year ago. Without one-time
items, the company would have made $0.50 a share versus analysts' expectations
of $0.45 a share.’
China
Tells Banks to Stress Test for 60% Home-Price Drop Bloomberg | China’s banking regulator told lenders last month
to conduct a new round of stress tests to gauge the impact of residential
property prices falling
WE’RE UNDERESTIMATING THE BEARISH POTENTIAL , August 3, 2010
’… Will Anything Stop the Market? Something Did
… At the same
time, the April numbers were lowered the second time by an additional 24,000
units, while May sales were revised lower by 33,000 units. To summarize, April
and May sales were reduced by 57,000 units. Therefore, June sales were 24%
above May sales. By the way, May sales were the lowest on record. Is this
really reason to celebrate? But wait, there's more. The S&P
Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Index inched from 144.59 to 146.43 for May, a
1.25% increase. Many are unaware that the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is a
three month average and is released with a two month lag. The most recent
3-month average as of May included the period when buyers still received their
$8,000 tax credit. As the chart below shows, despite a 80%+ rally in equities,
trillions worth of stimulus money, $8,000 home-buyers tax credit, and a lot of
hot air, the Case-Shiller Index has only risen 6 points, or 5.15%, from its
March 2009 low and remains 30% below its 2006 high. [chart]
Banks' Toxic Assets: It's no secret that the economy started choking because
banks gorged on toxic real estate assets. As the real estate related losses
piled up, banks got into trouble and started hording their meager funds and
lending dried up. Since then, banks have taken free government money and
invested it in various Treasuries. Even yields for short and long-term
treasuries (NYSEArca: TLT - News)
have fallen, and banks have been earning interest without risk, while
businesses can't obtain funding. Another income source for banks has been
securities trading. But, since stocks have fallen, so have banks' trading
revenue, meanwhile banks' real estate portfolios remain unchanged. Unemployment
is persistent and foreclosures continue to soar. Thus far, free interest and
rising stocks have covered up the losses racked up by banks' portfolios of
toxic assets. But the weak link (falling real estate prices) has not been
fixed. Once pressure is put on the chain, it will break again. The problems
within the financial sector have been visible all along. 106 banks, many of
them regional banks (NYSEArca: KRE - News),
have failed already in 2010. At the same time last year, only 65 banks failed.
An additional 775 banks are on the FDIC's problem bank list. Unlike Wall Street
and the financial media, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter bothers to take a
look under the hood and examine the engines that drive the economy. It's quite
obvious that a number of pistons have blown, the engine is sputtering but the
car is rolling downhill. Once the next hill comes, the car (aka the economy)
will come to a standstill. AAA can't fix blown pistons, neither can the
government.
The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
regularly and consistently monitors and analysis technical, fundamental,
sentiment and valuation gauges to formulate detailed short, mid and long-term
forecasts, along with a target for the ultimate market bottom. ‘
Temporary
Firehouse Closures Begin In Philadelphia CBS
3 | The
city of Philadelphia has started temporarily closing fire stations in order to
balance its budget.
Warning Signs Suggest Market Headed for Another Collapse
In early January 2008, I had a very troubling conversation with
my colleague at Matrix Analytix regarding a significant warning sign suggesting
that a major crisis loomed on the horizon of the equity markets that year. The
content of our conversation was focused on the implications of a massive
one-year head & shoulders on the S&P 500 (SPY). The issue consistently
pervaded my mind because if what the equity markets seemed to signal was true,
we were probably headed for a major collapse. I remember asking him
specifically, “Can this be for real? What are the implications of a head &
shoulders of that magnitude completely unwinding?”My colleague all but
confirmed my concerns even pointing to a potential culprit for the impending
downturn. He had noted that the markets had all but brushed off early warnings
of systemic risk and liquidity concerns posed by the potential failure of
subprime MBS’s that August, and that such concerns were likely to resurface in
2008. I, for one, didn’t really care what the potential culprit may be. For me,
the fact that market technicals suggested that an impending failure was drawing
near formed the basis of my concerns.The fact that market participants,
investors, and the mainstream media continued to put their heads in the sand
and ignore such blatant signs of the broader market was simply unacceptable. At
the time, the S&P 500 had rallied nearly 35% over the past 2 years. There
was rampant discussion of Dow (DIA) 18,000 as the market continued to “benefit”
from the so-called “Goldilocks economy.” Almost everyone was either oblivious
to the warning signs of the broader market or simply decided to ignore them.
Turn the page to
today, and it’s the same story all over again. While investors, fund managers,
and the mainstream financial media debate whether we’re headed for a double-dip
recession, they simply continue to disregard the obvious technical damage done
on the broader market. Once again, this article is not so much concerned with
the potential fundamental reasons or theories advanced as to why the markets
might unravel. Instead, I’m more concerned with what the broader market seems
to be telling me about the immediate future.
One can find no
shortage of fundamental or mechanical theories explaining what might form the
basis of a future financial collapse published at Zero Hedge, by Nassim
Nicholas Taleb, Nouriel Roubini or Karl Denninger. In fact, I buy into a lot of
the evidence presented by these sources, and believe that one gains a better
grasp of financial reality spending 10 minutes with Zero Hedge than spending 2
weeks listening to the mainstream financial media. It is laughable to compare
the vacant drivel coming out of Dennis Kneale to even one single article
published by Tyler Durden or Ryan Iskander.
Once again, right now
I’m focused on what the trading activity in the broader market seems to be
telling me rather than on what the fundamentals of the economy or the
mechanical structure of the markets indicate. The techncials suggest, as they
did in early 2008, that there is something fundamentally wrong with the
financial markets and that a collapse, whatever the fundamental reasons may be,
is potentially drawing near. There are seven issues I’ll briefly discuss below,
and why it's imperative that my readers should explore these issues in more
detail.
1. HEAD &
SHOULDERS ON THE S&P 500, DOW JONES, AND NASDAQ
The biggest warning
sign the market seems to be giving us right now is the blatant 10-month head
& shoulders formation seen on each of the major indices. Like in 2008, a
massive head & shoulders of this magnitude is not something that investors
ought to take lightly. Millions chose to ignore this warning sign in 2008 at
their peril. I’m not going to sit here and belabor the point as I’ve already
written extensively on this topic, which could be found here.Yet, to summarize,
a head & shoulders formation is arguably the most bearish technical
formation in the books. The time, breadth and size of this head & shoulders
is exactly the same as what we saw in early 2008 just before entering the
biggest bear market in modern history …
[chart]
2. BULLISH FLAG ON
THE VIX?
Almost as important
as the head & shoulders on every broad market index and exchange is the
huge bullish flag on the VIX, VXN and VXX (VXX). Volatility looks like it's
about to explode higher in the September to October time frame. A convergence
of the upper and lower trend lines appears to take place near the end of
August. This certainly does not bode well for the markets. An explosion of
volatility can only be viewed as conclusively negative for the markets. We
can’t have a massive spike in volatility without a coinciding collapse in the
equity markets …
[chart]
3.
THE DEATH-CROSS ON THE S&P SUGGESTS THE 2009 TO 2010 RALLY MIGHT BE OVER
This topic has
already been written about quite extensively over the past few weeks. As you
may or may not be aware, the 50-day moving average crossed under the 200-day on
the S&P 500 signaling that the March 2009 to April 2010 bull market might
be at an end. When the 50 and 200 days cross in this manner, it suggests that
the overall trend has weakened to such a degree that the recent price action is
viewed as a topping process for the markets. We saw this exact same bearish
cross on the S&P 500 in early January 2008 right at the start of the great
bear market. You can read more about the death-cross here, here and here …
4. THE VOLUMELESS
RALLY & MUTUAL FUND OUTFLOWS
Arguably one of the
biggest warning signs suggesting that the entire 2009 to 2010 advance is just a
bear market rally arises from the fact that the move was done on increasingly
less volume. The clear lack of conviction indicates that the move was
orchestrated by very few market participants. Some have advocated that the 2009
to 2010 rally was performed under the complete control of the federal reserve
or by high frequency traders in either a ploy to combat deflation or by fixing
the odds of the market to favor the very few. If Goldman Sachs (GS) posting
gains every day in Q1 isn’t enough evidence that the game is fixed, I don’t
know what is.
Every down move in
the market is done on massive volume, and every up move on little to no volume.
Each day of the February to April melt-up rally was easy to predict. When
volume tanks, the market rises and volume picks up, the market tanks. What kind
of no-conviction fraudulent market rallies on zero volume and tanks on heavy
volume? Even the July bounce to this correction was done on low volume. Down
days in July exhibited huge volume while up days saw declining participation.
This lack of
conviction in the equity markets is further evidenced by the disconcertingly
significant mutual fund outflows seen over the past year. Tyler Durden notes in
an article posted at Zero Hedge last week:
The latest update
from ICI is a doozy: in the week ended July 21, domestic equity mutual funds
saw a 12th sequential outflow of $1.5 billion. Even as the market has surged
10% in the last three weeks, just under $10 billion have been redeemed from
mutual funds, completely invalidating the move and further justifying the
skeptics who see absolutely no reflection to reality in the volumeless ramp
orchestrated by a few momentum HFTs and a couple of Primary Dealers with some
excess leftover Discount Window change. Not to mention that 12 weeks in a row
of outflows pretty much marks game over as far as retail participation is concerned
in stocks…
[chart]
5. 1,000 POINT FLASH
CRASHES
Adding to the
concerns of low volume and mutual fund outflows, if 1,000-point inter-day
swings in the Dow doesn’t raise a clear red flag to investors that the
mechanics of the market is under fire, then clearly nothing can convince the
average investor to consider caution in the coming months. Whether the
so-called “flash-crash” was the result of some questionable “fat-finger” trade
or the result of everyone putting in stop losses at the same level on the
S&P (which I warned about 7-minutes prior to the crash see here) is
anyone’s guess…
[chart]
6. BOND MARKET
DISTRUSTFUL OF THE RALLY
…
7. MARKET LEADERSHIP
IS WEAKENING
[chart] … ‘
Stocks' Late Push: Some
Optimism, Some Pessimism [Late
push … as in a constipated bowel movement … Come on! Another one of those push
the computer programmed trade button and off we go, reality / valuation /
economics be damned. In real security analysis (very simplified / summarized),
as opposed to the continued frauds on wall street, one must begin with the
largest and most significant aggregate (a simple word picture / analogy:
‘rising tide lifts all boats’). If you get this right, the probabilities in
your favor are substantially enhanced. From there, you want leading industries,
and leading companies within said leading industries (again, larger aggregates
then picks, to enhance probabilities, not guarantees, in your favor). Your time
frame, 1-3-5 yrs tops for projections, (including income statement/EPS, balance
sheet, and applying an appropriate P/E – a detailed, multi-faceted approach
beyond what could be described in this summary); and, that’s all they are,
projections. Beyond that time frame, your guess. On fraudulent wall street,
every day, though already discounted in large part (6-8 mos, approx.), the
market spins, churns, and with lightning fast computerized high-frequency trade
programs commissions in huge volumes like no other time in financial history
when real valuation meant something, with no net economic value added, but very
lucrative to the frauds on wall street, which ultimately is a net detriment to
the economy / the nation /and other industries as we’ve seen and as described
elsewhere on this site and in these posts http://albertpeia.com . Preposterously, they
even sometimes refer to seasonal factors as if hearing them for the first time
and ‘explaining’ an up move (almost invariably already discounted). Today, they
shrugged off the deepening economic reality despite the election year frothing
/ manipulations. This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market
in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in
a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn
pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline,
economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the wall
street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement
imposed. ].
Slowing economic rebound raises
unemployment fears (AP) [Wow! Talk about understatements!]
Marc Faber Questions if Dow
Could Hit 1,000 In the August edition of the ‘The Gloom, Boom
& Doom Report’ Marc Faber questions whether the Dow could hit 1,000 as predicted by Robert Prechter, based
on his interpretation of Elliot Waves, Fibonacci numbers and socioeconomic
trends. Prechter, who has written 13
books on finance (external link), believes
that the stock market is historically overvalued in terms of dividends and
earnings, because of a “great rise in positive social mood.” But the mood
changed in 2000 and the “trend toward negative social mood will lead to an
economic contraction,” according to Prechter. “Small bear markets lead to
recessions, big bear markets lead to depressions. The current bear market will
be the biggest in nearly 300 years, so the depression will be correspondingly
deep,” Prechter said.
Wall
St falls after weak outlooks drag (Reuters) U.S. stocks sagged in volatile
trading on Thursday after weak outlooks from technology companies and downbeat
comments from a Federal Reserve official gave investors little reason to buy.
Fed says some districts report slowing economy (Reuters)
Flaws of the European Stress Test … 'Bank stress test' became the magic phrase. Nothing calms fear
like a stress test that's labeled as rigorous. The stress test raises a few
very obvious questions: 1) Will it work? 2) Why was it needed in addition to a
$1 trillion aid package? 3) Is the stress test just a gimmick to appease
investors? The stress test is conducted by the London-based Committee of
European Banking Supervisors (CEBS). Ironically, the test has ignored the
majority of banks' holdings of sovereign debt. Sovereign debt concerns by the
so-called PIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain) triggered the
latest wave of financial problems. Ignoring sovereign debt in the Euro stress
test would be like ignoring toxic real estate assets in the U.S. 10%
Good - 90% Bad According to a Morgan Stanley survey, European banks hold about 90%
of their Greek government bonds in their banking books and 10% in their trading
books. The bonds in the banking book are generally held until maturity, the
bonds in the trading book are traded more frequently. According to a document
obtained by Bloomberg, the stress test assumes a loss of 23.1% on Greek debt,
14% on Portuguese bonds, 12.3% on Spanish debt, 4.7% on German debt, 10% on
U.K. debt, and 5.9% on French debt. However, the stress test only looks at the
bonds held in banks' trading books, which account for a mere 10% of Greek bond
holdings. Can that be called a stress test? Nouriel Roubini says that 'the
assumptions made about economic growth, about sovereign risk are not realistic
enough.' The fact that only seven banks failed the test with a combined
shortfall of $4.5 billion confirms the lax nature of the test. … The U.S. Bank Stress Test - A Nice Façade A closer look under the hood of
the U.S. bank stress test, however, shows that there's not much substance
behind the facade either. It was determined that the 19 tested U.S. banks need
to increase their balance sheets by $75 billion to meet the conditions of
what's termed the 'worst case scenario.' To a large extent, the $75 billion of
additional capital was financially engineered. Banks didn't have to actually
raise $75 billion. They were able to change the label of some of their assets
on their balance sheets. The government supported this practice via mandatory
convertible preferred shares (detailed analysis in May 2009 issue of the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter) …’
Moody's:
Regional banks on review for downgrade (AP)
Consumer
confidence dims (Reuters)
Job worries drove July U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest since
February, with one in six people expecting lower income in the next six months,
underscoring the precarious state of econo...
Global
steelmakers paint gloomy picture (Reuters)
US
bank failures in 2010 surpass 100
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. bank failures this year have surpassed a bleak
milestone of 100 as regulators shut down banks in Georgia, Florida, South
Carolina, Kansas, Nevada and Minnesota. The six bank seizures announced Friday
bring to 102 the failures so far in 2010. The pace of bank closures this year
is well ahead of that of last year, which saw a total 140 bank shuttered amid
the recession and mounting loan defaults …
On the Disconnect Between the Market and the Economy Michael Shulman:
(No recession helicopter ben) Bernanke Admits Major Policy Failures; Stocks Soar Darryl Montgomery What's wrong with this picture?
In his bi-annual testimony before Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke
admitted that after more than a year and a half of zero interest rates and $3
trillion in federal deficit spending since 2008, the best case
scenario for the U.S. economy is slow growth and high unemployment. The S&P
500 is up 2.5% so far this morning on this 'good' news. Bernanke's congressional testimony included the
following statements (emphasis added by me):
"Most [FOMC] participants viewed uncertainty
about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the
majority saw [at the June Fed meeting] the risks to growth as weighted to
the downside."
"Financial conditions--though much improved
since the depth of the financial crisis--have become less supportive of
economic growth in recent months."
"Many banks continue to have a large volume
of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight.
With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank
loans outstanding have continued to contract."
"After two years of job losses, private payrolls
expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this
year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially.
In all likelihood, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the
nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009."…
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Oliver
Stone has apologized for his anti-Semitic rant, but is the damage already done.
What damage? To perceived reality as opposed to reality? When you look at
america’s pro-israel, self-destructive, contra-indicated policies, including
the hands off policy vis-ŕ-vis fraudulent wall street, you see the truth to
what he says which is what so many astute individuals are already thinking /
realizing. How can people continue to ignore the truth, to their own detriment
Think about it. Do you really think he would risk the typical onslaught if the
same weren’t true? ‘Director Oliver
Stone has been forced to make a grovelling apology over an anti-Semitic
outburst. The double Academy Award winner claimed that the Russians suffered
more during the Second World War and that there was a Jewish 'domination of the
media'. Stone also said that Jews had '****ed up' U.S. foreign policy for years
and suggested the British supported Hitler ...’ The relentless attacks on Mel
Gibson are of the same caliber and purpose; suppression of truth!
WASHPOST
Ombudsman: Why Silence on Black Panther Story? (Washington Post) ‘Thursday's Post reported about a growing controversy
over the Justice
Department's decision to scale down a voter-intimidation case against members
of the New Black Panther Party. The story succinctly summarized the issues
but left many readers with a question: What took you so long? For months,
readers have contacted the ombudsman wondering why The Post hasn't been
covering the case. The calls increased recently after competitors such as the New
York Times and the Associated Press wrote stories. Fox News and right-wing
bloggers have been pumping the story. Liberal bloggers have countered, accusing
them of trying to manufacture a scandal. But The Post has been virtually
silent. The story has its origins on Election Day in 2008, when two members of
the New Black Panther Party stood in front of a Philadelphia polling place. YouTube
video of the men, now viewed nearly 1.5 million times, shows both wearing
paramilitary clothing. One carried a nightstick…’
Latino
KKK: You are too white to be American! ALIPAC | Tan
Klan woman can scream racist comments because the Obama administration and most
of the major news networks in America have her back.
Drudgereport:
NEW
LOW FOR O: USATODAYGALLUP HAS OBAMA APPROVE AT 41%...
GALLUP:
Blacks and Whites Continue to Differ Sharply on Obama...
JUDGE
KNOCKS DOWN MARRIAGE PROP IN CA
BLOW
TO O: MO SAYS NO
Voters
overwhelmingly rejected federal mandate to purchase health insurance...
Americans
swap passports; Desire to avoid tax leads some to renounce citizenship...
Ahmadinejad
survives blast near motorcade...
'Stupid
Zionists have hired mercenaries to assassinate me'...
FALTERING RECOVERY TRIPS DOLLAR...
GM,
FORD and CHRYSLER Sales All Lag Estimates...
Stimulus
Slammed: Republican Senators Release Report Alleging Waste...
The
100 worst stimulus projects...
SHOCK
VIDEO: DEM CONGRESSMAN BRAGS: 'FEDERAL GOVERNMENT CAN DO MOST ANYTHING IN THIS
COUNTRY'...
Deadliest Month Of Afghan War
Paper:
Will Washington's Failures Lead To Second American Revolution
Maxine
Waters faces trial over bank bailout funds...
HOT WATERS
Dems
Say Sorry, Charlie...
Democrats
Say Rangel Should Resign...
Obama:
Time For Rangel To End Career 'With Dignity'...
Dutch
become 1st NATO member to quit Afghanistan...
GATES:
Few U.S. troops to leave in 2011 … Sounds like a … no plan! ...
JOINT CHIEFS CHAIRMAN: Defacto bankrupt u.s. has Iran strike plan
Riiight! … new war plan the u.s. plan for dealing with failed plans ...
Gdp:
2.4%
Mediocre
Growth...
Recession
Deeper Than Gov't Previously Thought...
Nyt:
Employment Outlook Fades...
Prince
Charles: 'My Duty Is To Save The World' … Well, so much for that. There Goes
The World! ...
AP:
A bleaker outlook for economy into 2011...
Rangel
faces 13 ethics charges...
(wobama) Calls
African-Americans a 'mongrel people'...
'We
are now in the trial phase'...
Catalonia (Dali, Picasso,
etc.) bans bullfighting (very civilized)...
CLAIM: Giant asteroid on
course to hit Earth...
SEC Says New
FinReg Law Exempts It From Public Disclosure...
Oprah Hits All-Time Ratings
Low- like O -- Again!
GOLDMAN reveals where
bailout cash went -- overseas banks!
POLLS:
NEW LOWS FOR O...
Top U.S. officer
warns Afghan war will get worse...
Bank
failure tally passes 100 for year...
BUDGET DEFICIT TO REACH RECORD $1.47 TRILLION...
WH: A 'FISCAL SITUATION THAT REQUIRES
ATTENTION'...
Kerry
Docks New Yacht In RI To Duck MA Taxes...
PRICE
TO ATTEND OBAMA'S BIRTHDAY BASH: $30,000...
CHARLIE
RANGEL CHARGED WILL
FACE TRIAL
RACE
MESS: Obama Said Vilsack 'Jumped Gun' on Woman's Ouster...
Buchanan:
Obama team's panic over losing whites...
POLL: ANY REPUBLICAN WOULD
BEAT OBAMA IN '12...
Whites, Independents
Deserting Obama...
PACK
YOUR BAGS: CONGRESS CONFIDENCE AT 11%...
BAILOUT REACHES $3.7
TRILLION...
Gov't watchdogs: Mortgage
program not working...
Bernanke: 'Unusually Uncertain'...
Unemployment rate high
through Obama term...
Developing... NYT:
WORKERS ON DOOMED RIG VOICED CONCERN ON SAFETY...
Arab
guilty of rape after consensual sex with Jew...
WE’RE UNDERESTIMATING THE BEARISH POTENTIAL , August 3, 2010
’… Will Anything Stop the Market? Something Did
In early April,
CNBC asked: 'As job worries ease, will anything stop the stock market?'
Investor's Business Daily stated that stocks are 'manufacturing a worldwide
recovery.' The Wall Street Journal proclaimed: 'Check real estate; It's time to
delve in.' Everyone wanted to take credit for the recovery and 'Bernanke says
Fed helped stem 2008 panic' (Bloomberg). The Wall Street Journal observed that
'The bailouts are looking much less pricey.' According to conventional Wall
Street wisdom, the bear market was dead. A revival of the bear was less likely
than a Foreman comeback. Contrary to popular belief, the ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter noted two days after the market top: 'The potential exists that
Monday's high - which was only one point short of the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement at 1,220 - marked a significant market top.' While Wall Street had
to warm up to that idea, the bear roared back and erased eight months worth of
gains within 22 trading days. The decline was led by banks (NYSEArca: KBE
- News),
financials (NYSEArca: VFH - News),
materials (NYSEArca: XLB - News),
small caps (NYSEArca: IWM - News),
mid caps (NYSEArca: MDY - News),
real estate (NYSEArca: IYR - News)
and consumer discretionary (NYSEArca: XLY
- News)
which tumbled between 20 and 25%. With the S&P close to 1,000 and the Dow
below 10,000, the opinion that a double dip was close became the popular
opinion and double dip headlines popped up everywhere.
Double Dippers Silenced
On Labor Day,
when the S&P futures dipped to 1,003, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
noted that, 'considering that the S&P is butting against the 100-week SMA,
lower accelerations band, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels, round number
resistance at 1,000, and weekly s1 at 994, there is a good chance we will see
some sort of a bounce develop from the 990 - 1,015 area.' Have you noticed how
the rally from the early July lows has silenced the double dippers? In fact, Morgan
Stanley just told us 'fear cheap money, not double dip.' What's the purpose of
dwelling on the past? If this were a court case, you would try to examine
someone's character. Someone who tends to tell the truth is viewed as being
truthful and those who do not, vice versa. No doubt, Wall Street and the
financial media haven't built a track record of sound financial advice. Trust
them at your own peril.
Looking Ahead
There is no sense
in dwelling on past mistakes. Let's take a look ahead. A chain is only as
strong as its weakest link. It makes sense, therefore, to examine the weakest
link. The post 2007 bear market chain reaction started with banks, financials
and real estate - the weakest link. How strong are those sectors now?Real
estate prices: The market recently rallied on better than expected new home
sales. Reportedly, June's sales came in at 330,000 units annualized, which was
20,000 higher than expected. At the same time, the April numbers were lowered
the second time by an additional 24,000 units, while May sales were revised
lower by 33,000 units. To summarize, April and May sales were reduced by 57,000
units. Therefore, June sales were 24% above May sales. By the way, May sales
were the lowest on record. Is this really reason to celebrate? But wait,
there's more. The S&P Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Index inched
from 144.59 to 146.43 for May, a 1.25% increase. Many are unaware that the
Case-Shiller Home Price Index is a three month average and is released with a
two month lag. The most recent 3-month average as of May included the period
when buyers still received their $8,000 tax credit. As the chart below shows,
despite a 80%+ rally in equities, trillions worth of stimulus money, $8,000
home-buyers tax credit, and a lot of hot air, the Case-Shiller Index has only
risen 6 points, or 5.15%, from its March 2009 low and remains 30% below its
2006 high. [chart]
Banks' Toxic Assets: It's no secret that the economy started choking because
banks gorged on toxic real estate assets. As the real estate related losses
piled up, banks got into trouble and started hording their meager funds and
lending dried up. Since then, banks have taken free government money and
invested it in various Treasuries. Even yields for short and long-term
treasuries (NYSEArca: TLT - News)
have fallen, and banks have been earning interest without risk, while
businesses can't obtain funding. Another income source for banks has been
securities trading. But, since stocks have fallen, so have banks' trading
revenue, meanwhile banks' real estate portfolios remain unchanged. Unemployment
is persistent and foreclosures continue to soar. Thus far, free interest and
rising stocks have covered up the losses racked up by banks' portfolios of
toxic assets. But the weak link (falling real estate prices) has not been
fixed. Once pressure is put on the chain, it will break again. The problems
within the financial sector have been visible all along. 106 banks, many of
them regional banks (NYSEArca: KRE - News),
have failed already in 2010. At the same time last year, only 65 banks failed.
An additional 775 banks are on the FDIC's problem bank list. Unlike Wall Street
and the financial media, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter bothers to take a
look under the hood and examine the engines that drive the economy. It's quite
obvious that a number of pistons have blown, the engine is sputtering but the
car is rolling downhill. Once the next hill comes, the car (aka the economy)
will come to a standstill. AAA can't fix blown pistons, neither can the
government.
The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
regularly and consistently monitors and analysis technical, fundamental,
sentiment and valuation gauges to formulate detailed short, mid and long-term
forecasts, along with a target for the ultimate market bottom. ‘
Temporary
Firehouse Closures Begin In Philadelphia CBS
3 | The
city of Philadelphia has started temporarily closing fire stations in order to
balance its budget.
Warning Signs Suggest Market Headed for Another Collapse In early January
2008, I had a very troubling conversation with my colleague at Matrix Analytix
regarding a significant warning sign suggesting that a major crisis loomed on
the horizon of the equity markets that year. The content of our conversation
was focused on the implications of a massive one-year head & shoulders on
the S&P 500 (SPY). The issue consistently pervaded my mind because if what
the equity markets seemed to signal was true, we were probably headed for a
major collapse. I remember asking him specifically, “Can this be for real? What
are the implications of a head & shoulders of that magnitude completely
unwinding?”My colleague all but confirmed my concerns even pointing to a
potential culprit for the impending downturn. He had noted that the markets had
all but brushed off early warnings of systemic risk and liquidity concerns
posed by the potential failure of subprime MBS’s that August, and that such
concerns were likely to resurface in 2008. I, for one, didn’t really care what
the potential culprit may be. For me, the fact that market technicals suggested
that an impending failure was drawing near formed the basis of my concerns.The
fact that market participants, investors, and the mainstream media continued to
put their heads in the sand and ignore such blatant signs of the broader market
was simply unacceptable. At the time, the S&P 500 had rallied nearly 35%
over the past 2 years. There was rampant discussion of Dow (DIA) 18,000 as the
market continued to “benefit” from the so-called “Goldilocks economy.” Almost everyone
was either oblivious to the warning signs of the broader market or simply
decided to ignore them.
Turn the page to
today, and it’s the same story all over again. While investors, fund managers,
and the mainstream financial media debate whether we’re headed for a double-dip
recession, they simply continue to disregard the obvious technical damage done
on the broader market. Once again, this article is not so much concerned with
the potential fundamental reasons or theories advanced as to why the markets might
unravel. Instead, I’m more concerned with what the broader market seems to be
telling me about the immediate future.
One
can find no shortage of fundamental or mechanical theories explaining what
might form the basis of a future financial collapse published at Zero Hedge, by
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Nouriel Roubini or Karl Denninger. In fact, I buy into a
lot of the evidence presented by these sources, and believe that one gains a
better grasp of financial reality spending 10 minutes with Zero Hedge than spending
2 weeks listening to the mainstream financial media. It is laughable to compare
the vacant drivel coming out of Dennis Kneale to even one single article
published by Tyler Durden or Ryan Iskander.
Once again, right now
I’m focused on what the trading activity in the broader market seems to be
telling me rather than on what the fundamentals of the economy or the
mechanical structure of the markets indicate. The techncials suggest, as they
did in early 2008, that there is something fundamentally wrong with the
financial markets and that a collapse, whatever the fundamental reasons may be,
is potentially drawing near. There are seven issues I’ll briefly discuss below,
and why it's imperative that my readers should explore these issues in more
detail.
1. HEAD &
SHOULDERS ON THE S&P 500, DOW JONES, AND NASDAQ
The biggest warning
sign the market seems to be giving us right now is the blatant 10-month head
& shoulders formation seen on each of the major indices. Like in 2008, a
massive head & shoulders of this magnitude is not something that investors
ought to take lightly. Millions chose to ignore this warning sign in 2008 at
their peril. I’m not going to sit here and belabor the point as I’ve already
written extensively on this topic, which could be found here.Yet, to summarize,
a head & shoulders formation is arguably the most bearish technical
formation in the books. The time, breadth and size of this head & shoulders
is exactly the same as what we saw in early 2008 just before entering the biggest
bear market in modern history …
[chart]
2. BULLISH FLAG ON
THE VIX?
Almost as important
as the head & shoulders on every broad market index and exchange is the
huge bullish flag on the VIX, VXN and VXX (VXX). Volatility looks like it's
about to explode higher in the September to October time frame. A convergence
of the upper and lower trend lines appears to take place near the end of
August. This certainly does not bode well for the markets. An explosion of
volatility can only be viewed as conclusively negative for the markets. We
can’t have a massive spike in volatility without a coinciding collapse in the
equity markets …
[chart]
3.
THE DEATH-CROSS ON THE S&P SUGGESTS THE 2009 TO 2010 RALLY MIGHT BE OVER
This topic has
already been written about quite extensively over the past few weeks. As you
may or may not be aware, the 50-day moving average crossed under the 200-day on
the S&P 500 signaling that the March 2009 to April 2010 bull market might
be at an end. When the 50 and 200 days cross in this manner, it suggests that
the overall trend has weakened to such a degree that the recent price action is
viewed as a topping process for the markets. We saw this exact same bearish
cross on the S&P 500 in early January 2008 right at the start of the great
bear market. You can read more about the death-cross here, here and here …
4. THE VOLUMELESS
RALLY & MUTUAL FUND OUTFLOWS
Arguably one of the
biggest warning signs suggesting that the entire 2009 to 2010 advance is just a
bear market rally arises from the fact that the move was done on increasingly
less volume. The clear lack of conviction indicates that the move was
orchestrated by very few market participants. Some have advocated that the 2009
to 2010 rally was performed under the complete control of the federal reserve
or by high frequency traders in either a ploy to combat deflation or by fixing
the odds of the market to favor the very few. If Goldman Sachs (GS) posting
gains every day in Q1 isn’t enough evidence that the game is fixed, I don’t
know what is.
Every down move in
the market is done on massive volume, and every up move on little to no volume.
Each day of the February to April melt-up rally was easy to predict. When
volume tanks, the market rises and volume picks up, the market tanks. What kind
of no-conviction fraudulent market rallies on zero volume and tanks on heavy
volume? Even the July bounce to this correction was done on low volume. Down
days in July exhibited huge volume while up days saw declining participation.
This lack of
conviction in the equity markets is further evidenced by the disconcertingly
significant mutual fund outflows seen over the past year. Tyler Durden notes in
an article posted at Zero Hedge last week:
The latest update
from ICI is a doozy: in the week ended July 21, domestic equity mutual funds
saw a 12th sequential outflow of $1.5 billion. Even as the market has surged
10% in the last three weeks, just under $10 billion have been redeemed from
mutual funds, completely invalidating the move and further justifying the
skeptics who see absolutely no reflection to reality in the volumeless ramp
orchestrated by a few momentum HFTs and a couple of Primary Dealers with some
excess leftover Discount Window change. Not to mention that 12 weeks in a row
of outflows pretty much marks game over as far as retail participation is
concerned in stocks…
[chart]
5. 1,000 POINT FLASH
CRASHES
Adding to the
concerns of low volume and mutual fund outflows, if 1,000-point inter-day
swings in the Dow doesn’t raise a clear red flag to investors that the
mechanics of the market is under fire, then clearly nothing can convince the
average investor to consider caution in the coming months. Whether the
so-called “flash-crash” was the result of some questionable “fat-finger” trade
or the result of everyone putting in stop losses at the same level on the
S&P (which I warned about 7-minutes prior to the crash see here) is
anyone’s guess…
[chart]
6. BOND MARKET
DISTRUSTFUL OF THE RALLY
…
7. MARKET LEADERSHIP
IS WEAKENING
[chart] … ‘
Stocks' Late Push: Some
Optimism, Some Pessimism [Late
push … as in a constipated bowel movement … Come on! Another one of those push
the computer programmed trade button and off we go, reality / valuation /
economics be damned. In real security analysis (very simplified / summarized),
as opposed to the continued frauds on wall street, one must begin with the
largest and most significant aggregate (a simple word picture / analogy:
‘rising tide lifts all boats’). If you get this right, the probabilities in
your favor are substantially enhanced. From there, you want leading industries,
and leading companies within said leading industries (again, larger aggregates
then picks, to enhance probabilities, not guarantees, in your favor). Your time
frame, 1-3-5 yrs tops for projections, (including income statement/EPS, balance
sheet, and applying an appropriate P/E – a detailed, multi-faceted approach
beyond what could be described in this summary); and, that’s all they are,
projections. Beyond that, your guess. On fraudulent wall street, every day,
though already discounted in large part (6-8 mos, approx.), the market spins,
churns, and with lightning fast computerized high-frequency trade programs commissions
in huge volumes like no other time in financial history when real valuation
meant something, with no net economic value added, but very lucrative to the
frauds on wall street, which ultimately is a net detriment to the economy / the
nation /and other industries as we’ve seen and as described elsewhere on this
site and in these posts http://albertpeia.com . Preposterously, they
even sometimes refer to seasonal factors as if hearing them for the first time
and ‘explaining’ an up move (almost invariably already discounted). Today, they
shrugged off the deepening economic reality despite the election year frothing
/ manipulations. This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market
in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in
a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national
decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the
wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement
imposed. ].
Slowing economic rebound raises
unemployment fears (AP) [Wow! Talk about understatements!]
Marc Faber Questions if Dow
Could Hit 1,000 In the August edition of the ‘The Gloom, Boom
& Doom Report’ Marc Faber questions whether the Dow could hit 1,000 as predicted by Robert Prechter, based
on his interpretation of Elliot Waves, Fibonacci numbers and socioeconomic
trends. Prechter, who has written 13
books on finance (external link), believes
that the stock market is historically overvalued in terms of dividends and
earnings, because of a “great rise in positive social mood.” But the mood
changed in 2000 and the “trend toward negative social mood will lead to an
economic contraction,” according to Prechter. “Small bear markets lead to
recessions, big bear markets lead to depressions. The current bear market will
be the biggest in nearly 300 years, so the depression will be correspondingly
deep,” Prechter said.
Wall
St falls after weak outlooks drag (Reuters) U.S. stocks sagged in volatile
trading on Thursday after weak outlooks from technology companies and downbeat
comments from a Federal Reserve official gave investors little reason to buy.
Fed says some districts report slowing economy (Reuters)
Flaws of the European Stress Test … 'Bank stress test' became the magic phrase. Nothing calms fear
like a stress test that's labeled as rigorous. The stress test raises a few
very obvious questions: 1) Will it work? 2) Why was it needed in addition to a
$1 trillion aid package? 3) Is the stress test just a gimmick to appease
investors? The stress test is conducted by the London-based Committee of
European Banking Supervisors (CEBS). Ironically, the test has ignored the
majority of banks' holdings of sovereign debt. Sovereign debt concerns by the
so-called PIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain) triggered the
latest wave of financial problems. Ignoring sovereign debt in the Euro stress
test would be like ignoring toxic real estate assets in the U.S. 10%
Good - 90% Bad According to a Morgan Stanley survey, European banks hold about 90%
of their Greek government bonds in their banking books and 10% in their trading
books. The bonds in the banking book are generally held until maturity, the
bonds in the trading book are traded more frequently. According to a document
obtained by Bloomberg, the stress test assumes a loss of 23.1% on Greek debt,
14% on Portuguese bonds, 12.3% on Spanish debt, 4.7% on German debt, 10% on
U.K. debt, and 5.9% on French debt. However, the stress test only looks at the
bonds held in banks' trading books, which account for a mere 10% of Greek bond
holdings. Can that be called a stress test? Nouriel Roubini says that 'the
assumptions made about economic growth, about sovereign risk are not realistic
enough.' The fact that only seven banks failed the test with a combined
shortfall of $4.5 billion confirms the lax nature of the test. … The U.S. Bank Stress Test - A Nice Façade A closer look under the hood of the
U.S. bank stress test, however, shows that there's not much substance behind
the facade either. It was determined that the 19 tested U.S. banks need to
increase their balance sheets by $75 billion to meet the conditions of what's
termed the 'worst case scenario.' To a large extent, the $75 billion of
additional capital was financially engineered. Banks didn't have to actually
raise $75 billion. They were able to change the label of some of their assets
on their balance sheets. The government supported this practice via mandatory
convertible preferred shares (detailed analysis in May 2009 issue of the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter) …’
Moody's:
Regional banks on review for downgrade (AP)
Consumer
confidence dims (Reuters)
Job worries drove July U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest since
February, with one in six people expecting lower income in the next six months,
underscoring the precarious state of econo...
Global
steelmakers paint gloomy picture (Reuters)
US
bank failures in 2010 surpass 100
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. bank failures this year have surpassed a bleak
milestone of 100 as regulators shut down banks in Georgia, Florida, South
Carolina, Kansas, Nevada and Minnesota. The six bank seizures announced Friday
bring to 102 the failures so far in 2010. The pace of bank closures this year
is well ahead of that of last year, which saw a total 140 bank shuttered amid
the recession and mounting loan defaults …
On the Disconnect Between the Market and the Economy Michael Shulman:
(No recession helicopter ben) Bernanke Admits Major Policy Failures; Stocks Soar Darryl Montgomery What's wrong with this picture?
In his bi-annual testimony before Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke
admitted that after more than a year and a half of zero interest rates and $3
trillion in federal deficit spending since 2008, the best case
scenario for the U.S. economy is slow growth and high unemployment. The S&P
500 is up 2.5% so far this morning on this 'good' news. Bernanke's congressional testimony included the following
statements (emphasis added by me):
"Most [FOMC] participants viewed uncertainty
about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the
majority saw [at the June Fed meeting] the risks to growth as weighted to
the downside."
"Financial conditions--though much improved
since the depth of the financial crisis--have become less supportive of
economic growth in recent months."
"Many banks continue to have a large volume
of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight.
With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank
loans outstanding have continued to contract."
"After two years of job losses, private payrolls
expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this
year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially.
In all likelihood, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the
nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009."…
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Oliver
Stone has apologized for his anti-Semitic rant, but is the damage already done.
What damage? To perceived reality as opposed to reality? When you look at
america’s pro-israel, self-destructive, contra-indicated policies, including
the hands off policy vis-ŕ-vis fraudulent wall street, you see the truth to
what he says which is what so many astute individuals are already thinking /
realizing. How can people continue to ignore the truth, to their own detriment
Think about it. Do you really think he would risk the typical onslaught if the
same weren’t true? ‘Director Oliver
Stone has been forced to make a grovelling apology over an anti-Semitic
outburst. The double Academy Award winner claimed that the Russians suffered
more during the Second World War and that there was a Jewish 'domination of the
media'. Stone also said that Jews had '****ed up' U.S. foreign policy for years
and suggested the British supported Hitler ...’ The relentless attacks on Mel
Gibson are of the same caliber and purpose; suppression of truth!
WASHPOST
Ombudsman: Why Silence on Black Panther Story? (Washington Post) ‘Thursday's Post reported about a growing controversy
over the Justice
Department's decision to scale down a voter-intimidation case against members
of the New Black Panther Party. The story succinctly summarized the issues
but left many readers with a question: What took you so long? For months,
readers have contacted the ombudsman wondering why The Post hasn't been
covering the case. The calls increased recently after competitors such as the New
York Times and the Associated Press wrote stories. Fox News and right-wing
bloggers have been pumping the story. Liberal bloggers have countered, accusing
them of trying to manufacture a scandal. But The Post has been virtually
silent. The story has its origins on Election Day in 2008, when two members of
the New Black Panther Party stood in front of a Philadelphia polling place. YouTube
video of the men, now viewed nearly 1.5 million times, shows both wearing
paramilitary clothing. One carried a nightstick…’
Latino
KKK: You are too white to be American! ALIPAC | Tan
Klan woman can scream racist comments because the Obama administration and most
of the major news networks in America have her back.
Drudgereport:
NEW
LOW FOR O: USATODAYGALLUP HAS OBAMA APPROVE AT 41%...
Americans
swap passports; Desire to avoid tax leads some to renounce citizenship...
FALTERING RECOVERY TRIPS DOLLAR...
GM,
FORD and CHRYSLER Sales All Lag Estimates...
Stimulus
Slammed: Republican Senators Release Report Alleging Waste...
The
100 worst stimulus projects...
SHOCK
VIDEO: DEM CONGRESSMAN BRAGS: 'FEDERAL GOVERNMENT CAN DO MOST ANYTHING IN THIS
COUNTRY'...
Deadliest Month Of Afghan War
Paper:
Will Washington's Failures Lead To Second American Revolution
Maxine
Waters faces trial over bank bailout funds...
HOT WATERS
Dems
Say Sorry, Charlie...
Democrats
Say Rangel Should Resign...
Obama:
Time For Rangel To End Career 'With Dignity'...
Dutch
become 1st NATO member to quit Afghanistan...
GATES:
Few U.S. troops to leave in 2011 … Sounds like a … no plan! ...
JOINT CHIEFS CHAIRMAN: Defacto bankrupt u.s. has Iran strike plan
Riiight! … new war plan the u.s. plan for dealing with failed plans ...
Gdp:
2.4%
Mediocre
Growth...
Recession
Deeper Than Gov't Previously Thought...
Nyt:
Employment Outlook Fades...
Prince
Charles: 'My Duty Is To Save The World' … Well, so much for that. There Goes
The World! ...
AP:
A bleaker outlook for economy into 2011...
Rangel
faces 13 ethics charges...
(wobama) Calls
African-Americans a 'mongrel people'...
'We
are now in the trial phase'...
Catalonia (Dali, Picasso,
etc.) bans bullfighting (very civilized)...
CLAIM: Giant asteroid on
course to hit Earth...
SEC Says New
FinReg Law Exempts It From Public Disclosure...
Oprah Hits All-Time Ratings
Low- like O -- Again!
GOLDMAN reveals where
bailout cash went -- overseas banks!
POLLS:
NEW LOWS FOR O...
Top U.S. officer
warns Afghan war will get worse...
Bank
failure tally passes 100 for year...
BUDGET DEFICIT TO REACH RECORD $1.47 TRILLION...
WH: A 'FISCAL SITUATION THAT REQUIRES
ATTENTION'...
Kerry
Docks New Yacht In RI To Duck MA Taxes...
PRICE
TO ATTEND OBAMA'S BIRTHDAY BASH: $30,000...
CHARLIE
RANGEL CHARGED WILL
FACE TRIAL
RACE
MESS: Obama Said Vilsack 'Jumped Gun' on Woman's Ouster...
Buchanan:
Obama team's panic over losing whites...
POLL: ANY REPUBLICAN WOULD
BEAT OBAMA IN '12...
Whites, Independents
Deserting Obama...
PACK
YOUR BAGS: CONGRESS CONFIDENCE AT 11%...
BAILOUT REACHES $3.7
TRILLION...
Gov't watchdogs: Mortgage
program not working...
Bernanke: 'Unusually Uncertain'...
Unemployment rate high
through Obama term...
Developing... NYT:
WORKERS ON DOOMED RIG VOICED CONCERN ON SAFETY...
Arab
guilty of rape after consensual sex with Jew...
Warning Signs Suggest Market Headed for Another Collapse In early January
2008, I had a very troubling conversation with my colleague at Matrix Analytix
regarding a significant warning sign suggesting that a major crisis loomed on
the horizon of the equity markets that year. The content of our conversation
was focused on the implications of a massive one-year head & shoulders on
the S&P 500 (SPY). The issue consistently pervaded my mind because if what
the equity markets seemed to signal was true, we were probably headed for a
major collapse. I remember asking him specifically, “Can this be for real? What
are the implications of a head & shoulders of that magnitude completely
unwinding?”My colleague all but confirmed my concerns even pointing to a
potential culprit for the impending downturn. He had noted that the markets had
all but brushed off early warnings of systemic risk and liquidity concerns
posed by the potential failure of subprime MBS’s that August, and that such
concerns were likely to resurface in 2008. I, for one, didn’t really care what
the potential culprit may be. For me, the fact that market technicals suggested
that an impending failure was drawing near formed the basis of my concerns.The fact
that market participants, investors, and the mainstream media continued to put
their heads in the sand and ignore such blatant signs of the broader market was
simply unacceptable. At the time, the S&P 500 had rallied nearly 35% over
the past 2 years. There was rampant discussion of Dow (DIA) 18,000 as the
market continued to “benefit” from the so-called “Goldilocks economy.” Almost
everyone was either oblivious to the warning signs of the broader market or
simply decided to ignore them.
Turn the page to today,
and it’s the same story all over again. While investors, fund managers, and the
mainstream financial media debate whether we’re headed for a double-dip
recession, they simply continue to disregard the obvious technical damage done
on the broader market. Once again, this article is not so much concerned with
the potential fundamental reasons or theories advanced as to why the markets
might unravel. Instead, I’m more concerned with what the broader market seems
to be telling me about the immediate future.
One
can find no shortage of fundamental or mechanical theories explaining what
might form the basis of a future financial collapse published at Zero Hedge, by
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Nouriel Roubini or Karl Denninger. In fact, I buy into a
lot of the evidence presented by these sources, and believe that one gains a
better grasp of financial reality spending 10 minutes with Zero Hedge than
spending 2 weeks listening to the mainstream financial media. It is laughable
to compare the vacant drivel coming out of Dennis Kneale to even one single
article published by Tyler Durden or Ryan Iskander.
Once again, right now
I’m focused on what the trading activity in the broader market seems to be
telling me rather than on what the fundamentals of the economy or the mechanical
structure of the markets indicate. The techncials suggest, as they did in early
2008, that there is something fundamentally wrong with the financial markets
and that a collapse, whatever the fundamental reasons may be, is potentially
drawing near. There are seven issues I’ll briefly discuss below, and why it's
imperative that my readers should explore these issues in more detail.
1. HEAD &
SHOULDERS ON THE S&P 500, DOW JONES, AND NASDAQ
The biggest warning
sign the market seems to be giving us right now is the blatant 10-month head
& shoulders formation seen on each of the major indices. Like in 2008, a
massive head & shoulders of this magnitude is not something that investors
ought to take lightly. Millions chose to ignore this warning sign in 2008 at
their peril. I’m not going to sit here and belabor the point as I’ve already
written extensively on this topic, which could be found here.Yet, to summarize,
a head & shoulders formation is arguably the most bearish technical
formation in the books. The time, breadth and size of this head & shoulders
is exactly the same as what we saw in early 2008 just before entering the
biggest bear market in modern history …
[chart]
2. BULLISH FLAG ON
THE VIX?
Almost as important
as the head & shoulders on every broad market index and exchange is the
huge bullish flag on the VIX, VXN and VXX (VXX). Volatility looks like it's
about to explode higher in the September to October time frame. A convergence
of the upper and lower trend lines appears to take place near the end of
August. This certainly does not bode well for the markets. An explosion of
volatility can only be viewed as conclusively negative for the markets. We
can’t have a massive spike in volatility without a coinciding collapse in the
equity markets …
[chart]
3.
THE DEATH-CROSS ON THE S&P SUGGESTS THE 2009 TO 2010 RALLY MIGHT BE OVER
This topic has
already been written about quite extensively over the past few weeks. As you
may or may not be aware, the 50-day moving average crossed under the 200-day on
the S&P 500 signaling that the March 2009 to April 2010 bull market might
be at an end. When the 50 and 200 days cross in this manner, it suggests that
the overall trend has weakened to such a degree that the recent price action is
viewed as a topping process for the markets. We saw this exact same bearish
cross on the S&P 500 in early January 2008 right at the start of the great
bear market. You can read more about the death-cross here, here and here …
4. THE VOLUMELESS
RALLY & MUTUAL FUND OUTFLOWS
Arguably one of the
biggest warning signs suggesting that the entire 2009 to 2010 advance is just a
bear market rally arises from the fact that the move was done on increasingly
less volume. The clear lack of conviction indicates that the move was
orchestrated by very few market participants. Some have advocated that the 2009
to 2010 rally was performed under the complete control of the federal reserve
or by high frequency traders in either a ploy to combat deflation or by fixing
the odds of the market to favor the very few. If Goldman Sachs (GS) posting
gains every day in Q1 isn’t enough evidence that the game is fixed, I don’t
know what is.
Every down move in
the market is done on massive volume, and every up move on little to no volume.
Each day of the February to April melt-up rally was easy to predict. When
volume tanks, the market rises and volume picks up, the market tanks. What kind
of no-conviction fraudulent market rallies on zero volume and tanks on heavy
volume? Even the July bounce to this correction was done on low volume. Down
days in July exhibited huge volume while up days saw declining participation.
This lack of
conviction in the equity markets is further evidenced by the disconcertingly
significant mutual fund outflows seen over the past year. Tyler Durden notes in
an article posted at Zero Hedge last week:
The latest update
from ICI is a doozy: in the week ended July 21, domestic equity mutual funds
saw a 12th sequential outflow of $1.5 billion. Even as the market has surged
10% in the last three weeks, just under $10 billion have been redeemed from
mutual funds, completely invalidating the move and further justifying the
skeptics who see absolutely no reflection to reality in the volumeless ramp
orchestrated by a few momentum HFTs and a couple of Primary Dealers with some
excess leftover Discount Window change. Not to mention that 12 weeks in a row
of outflows pretty much marks game over as far as retail participation is
concerned in stocks…
[chart]
5. 1,000 POINT FLASH
CRASHES
Adding to the concerns
of low volume and mutual fund outflows, if 1,000-point inter-day swings in the
Dow doesn’t raise a clear red flag to investors that the mechanics of the
market is under fire, then clearly nothing can convince the average investor to
consider caution in the coming months. Whether the so-called “flash-crash” was
the result of some questionable “fat-finger” trade or the result of everyone
putting in stop losses at the same level on the S&P (which I warned about
7-minutes prior to the crash see here) is anyone’s guess…
[chart]
6. BOND MARKET
DISTRUSTFUL OF THE RALLY
…
7. MARKET LEADERSHIP
IS WEAKENING
[chart] … ‘
Stocks' Late Push: Some
Optimism, Some Pessimism [Late
push … as in a constipated bowel movement … Come on! Another one of those push
the computer programmed trade button and off we go, reality / valuation /
economics be damned. In real security analysis (very simplified / summarized),
as opposed to the continued frauds on wall street, one must begin with the
largest and most significant aggregate (a simple word picture / analogy:
‘rising tide lifts all boats’). If you get this right, the probabilities in
your favor are substantially enhanced. From there, you want leading industries,
and leading companies within said leading industries (again, larger aggregates
then picks, to enhance probabilities, not guarantees, in your favor). Your time
frame, 1-3-5 yrs tops for projections, (including income statement/EPS, balance
sheet, and applying an appropriate P/E; and, that’s all they are, projections.
Beyond that, your guess. On fraudulent wall street, every day, though already
discounted in large part (6-8 mos, approx.), the market spins, churns, and with
lightning computerized speed commissions like no other time in financial
history when real valuation meant something, with no net economic value added,
but very lucrative to the frauds on wall street, which ultimately is a net
detriment to the economy / the nation /and other industries as we’ve seen and
as described elsewhere on this site and in these posts http://albertpeia.com
. Preposterously, they even sometimes refer to seasonal factors as if hearing
them for the first time and ‘explaining’ an up move (almost invariably already
discounted). Today, they shrugged off the deepening economic reality despite
the election year frothing / manipulations. This is a global
depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up
move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has
been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with
great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell
into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam /
fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will
not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are
criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.
].
Slowing economic rebound raises
unemployment fears (AP) [Wow! Talk about understatements!]
Marc Faber Questions if Dow
Could Hit 1,000 In the August edition of the ‘The Gloom, Boom
& Doom Report’ Marc Faber questions whether the Dow could hit 1,000 as predicted by Robert Prechter, based
on his interpretation of Elliot Waves, Fibonacci numbers and socioeconomic
trends. Prechter, who has written 13
books on finance (external link), believes
that the stock market is historically overvalued in terms of dividends and
earnings, because of a “great rise in positive social mood.” But the mood
changed in 2000 and the “trend toward negative social mood will lead to an
economic contraction,” according to Prechter. “Small bear markets lead to
recessions, big bear markets lead to depressions. The current bear market will
be the biggest in nearly 300 years, so the depression will be correspondingly
deep,” Prechter said.
Wall
St falls after weak outlooks drag (Reuters) U.S. stocks sagged in volatile
trading on Thursday after weak outlooks from technology companies and downbeat
comments from a Federal Reserve official gave investors little reason to buy.
Fed says some districts report slowing economy (Reuters)
Flaws of the European Stress Test … 'Bank stress test' became the magic phrase. Nothing calms fear
like a stress test that's labeled as rigorous. The stress test raises a few
very obvious questions: 1) Will it work? 2) Why was it needed in addition to a
$1 trillion aid package? 3) Is the stress test just a gimmick to appease
investors? The stress test is conducted by the London-based Committee of
European Banking Supervisors (CEBS). Ironically, the test has ignored the majority
of banks' holdings of sovereign debt. Sovereign debt concerns by the so-called
PIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain) triggered the latest wave
of financial problems. Ignoring sovereign debt in the Euro stress test would be
like ignoring toxic real estate assets in the U.S. 10%
Good - 90% Bad According to a Morgan Stanley survey, European banks hold about 90%
of their Greek government bonds in their banking books and 10% in their trading
books. The bonds in the banking book are generally held until maturity, the
bonds in the trading book are traded more frequently. According to a document
obtained by Bloomberg, the stress test assumes a loss of 23.1% on Greek debt,
14% on Portuguese bonds, 12.3% on Spanish debt, 4.7% on German debt, 10% on U.K.
debt, and 5.9% on French debt. However, the stress test only looks at the bonds
held in banks' trading books, which account for a mere 10% of Greek bond
holdings. Can that be called a stress test? Nouriel Roubini says that 'the
assumptions made about economic growth, about sovereign risk are not realistic
enough.' The fact that only seven banks failed the test with a combined
shortfall of $4.5 billion confirms the lax nature of the test. … The U.S. Bank Stress Test - A Nice Façade A closer look under the hood of
the U.S. bank stress test, however, shows that there's not much substance
behind the facade either. It was determined that the 19 tested U.S. banks need
to increase their balance sheets by $75 billion to meet the conditions of
what's termed the 'worst case scenario.' To a large extent, the $75 billion of
additional capital was financially engineered. Banks didn't have to actually
raise $75 billion. They were able to change the label of some of their assets
on their balance sheets. The government supported this practice via mandatory
convertible preferred shares (detailed analysis in May 2009 issue of the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter) …’
Moody's:
Regional banks on review for downgrade (AP)
Consumer
confidence dims (Reuters)
Job worries drove July U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest since
February, with one in six people expecting lower income in the next six months,
underscoring the precarious state of econo...
Global
steelmakers paint gloomy picture (Reuters)
US
bank failures in 2010 surpass 100
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. bank failures this year have surpassed a bleak
milestone of 100 as regulators shut down banks in Georgia, Florida, South
Carolina, Kansas, Nevada and Minnesota. The six bank seizures announced Friday
bring to 102 the failures so far in 2010. The pace of bank closures this year
is well ahead of that of last year, which saw a total 140 bank shuttered amid
the recession and mounting loan defaults …
On the Disconnect Between the Market and the Economy Michael Shulman:
(No recession helicopter ben) Bernanke Admits Major Policy Failures; Stocks Soar Darryl Montgomery What's wrong with this picture?
In his bi-annual testimony before Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke
admitted that after more than a year and a half of zero interest rates and $3
trillion in federal deficit spending since 2008, the best case
scenario for the U.S. economy is slow growth and high unemployment. The S&P
500 is up 2.5% so far this morning on this 'good' news. Bernanke's congressional testimony included the
following statements (emphasis added by me):
"Most [FOMC] participants viewed uncertainty
about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the
majority saw [at the June Fed meeting] the risks to growth as weighted to
the downside."
"Financial conditions--though much improved
since the depth of the financial crisis--have become less supportive of
economic growth in recent months."
"Many banks continue to have a large volume
of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight.
With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank
loans outstanding have continued to contract."
"After two years of job losses, private payrolls
expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this
year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially.
In all likelihood, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the
nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009."…
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Oliver
Stone has apologized for his anti-Semitic rant, but is the damage already done.
What damage? To perceived reality as opposed to reality? When you look at
america’s pro-israel, self-destructive, contra-indicated policies, including
the hands off policy vis-ŕ-vis fraudulent wall street, you see the truth to
what he says which is what so many astute individuals are already thinking /
realizing. How can people continue to ignore the truth, to their own detriment
Think about it. Do you really think he would risk the typical onslaught if the
same weren’t true? ‘Director Oliver
Stone has been forced to make a grovelling apology over an anti-Semitic
outburst. The double Academy Award winner claimed that the Russians suffered
more during the Second World War and that there was a Jewish 'domination of the
media'. Stone also said that Jews had '****ed up' U.S. foreign policy for years
and suggested the British supported Hitler ...’ The relentless attacks on Mel
Gibson are of the same caliber and purpose; suppression of truth!
WASHPOST
Ombudsman: Why Silence on Black Panther Story? (Washington Post) ‘Thursday's Post reported about a growing
controversy over the Justice
Department's decision to scale down a voter-intimidation case against members
of the New Black Panther Party. The story succinctly summarized the issues
but left many readers with a question: What took you so long? For months,
readers have contacted the ombudsman wondering why The Post hasn't been
covering the case. The calls increased recently after competitors such as the
New York Times and the Associated Press wrote stories. Fox News and right-wing
bloggers have been pumping the story. Liberal bloggers have countered, accusing
them of trying to manufacture a scandal. But The Post has been virtually
silent. The story has its origins on Election Day in 2008, when two members of
the New Black Panther Party stood in front of a Philadelphia polling place. YouTube
video of the men, now viewed nearly 1.5 million times, shows both wearing
paramilitary clothing. One carried a nightstick…’
Latino
KKK: You are too white to be American! ALIPAC | Tan
Klan woman can scream racist comments because the Obama administration and most
of the major news networks in America have her back.
Drudgereport:
SHOCK
VIDEO: DEM CONGRESSMAN BRAGS: 'FEDERAL GOVERNMENT CAN DO MOST ANYTHING IN THIS
COUNTRY'...
Deadliest Month Of Afghan War
Paper:
Will Washington's Failures Lead To Second American Revolution
Maxine
Waters faces trial over bank bailout funds...
HOT WATERS
Dems
Say Sorry, Charlie...
Democrats
Say Rangel Should Resign...
Obama:
Time For Rangel To End Career 'With Dignity'...
Dutch
become 1st NATO member to quit Afghanistan...
GATES:
Few U.S. troops to leave in 2011 … Sounds like a … no plan! ...
JOINT CHIEFS CHAIRMAN: Defacto bankrupt u.s. has Iran strike plan
Riiight! … new war plan the u.s. plan for dealing with failed plans ...
Gdp:
2.4%
Mediocre
Growth...
Recession
Deeper Than Gov't Previously Thought...
Nyt:
Employment Outlook Fades...
Prince
Charles: 'My Duty Is To Save The World' … Well, so much for that. There Goes
The World! ...
AP:
A bleaker outlook for economy into 2011...
Rangel
faces 13 ethics charges...
(wobama) Calls
African-Americans a 'mongrel people'...
'We
are now in the trial phase'...
Catalonia (Dali, Picasso,
etc.) bans bullfighting (very civilized)...
CLAIM: Giant asteroid on
course to hit Earth...
SEC Says New
FinReg Law Exempts It From Public Disclosure...
Oprah Hits All-Time Ratings
Low- like O -- Again!
GOLDMAN reveals where
bailout cash went -- overseas banks!
POLLS:
NEW LOWS FOR O...
Top U.S. officer
warns Afghan war will get worse...
Bank
failure tally passes 100 for year...
BUDGET DEFICIT TO REACH RECORD $1.47 TRILLION...
WH: A 'FISCAL SITUATION THAT REQUIRES
ATTENTION'...
Kerry
Docks New Yacht In RI To Duck MA Taxes...
PRICE
TO ATTEND OBAMA'S BIRTHDAY BASH: $30,000...
CHARLIE
RANGEL CHARGED WILL
FACE TRIAL
RACE
MESS: Obama Said Vilsack 'Jumped Gun' on Woman's Ouster...
Buchanan:
Obama team's panic over losing whites...
POLL: ANY REPUBLICAN WOULD
BEAT OBAMA IN '12...
Whites, Independents
Deserting Obama...
PACK
YOUR BAGS: CONGRESS CONFIDENCE AT 11%...
BAILOUT REACHES $3.7
TRILLION...
Gov't watchdogs: Mortgage
program not working...
Bernanke: 'Unusually Uncertain'...
Unemployment rate high
through Obama term...
Developing... NYT:
WORKERS ON DOOMED RIG VOICED CONCERN ON SAFETY...
Arab
guilty of rape after consensual sex with Jew...
Stocks' Late Push: Some
Optimism, Some Pessimism [Late
push … as in a constipated bowel movement … Come on! Another one of those push
the computer programmed trade button and off we go, reality / valuation /
economics be damned. In real security analysis (very simplified / summarized),
as opposed to the continued frauds on wall street, one must begin with the largest
and most significant aggregate, the economy (a simple word picture / analogy:
‘rising tide lifts all boats’). If you get this right, the probabilities in
your favor are substantially enhanced. From there, you want leading industries,
and leading companies within said leading industries (again, larger aggregates
then picks, to enhance probabilities, not guarantees, in your favor). Your time
frame, 1-3-5 yrs tops for projections, (including income statement / EPS,
balance sheet, and applying an appropriate P/E multiple (multi-faceted, too
detailed for this); and, that’s all they are, projections. Beyond that time
frame … your guess. On fraudulent wall street, every day, though already
discounted in large part (6-8 mos, approx.), the market spins, churns, and with
lightning computerized speed commissions like no other time in financial
history when real valuation meant something, with no net economic value added,
but very lucrative to the frauds on wall street, which ultimately is a net
detriment to the economy / the nation /and other industries as we’ve seen and
as described elsewhere on this site and in these posts http://albertpeia.com
. Preposterously, they even sometimes refer to seasonal factors as if hearing
them for the first time and ‘explaining’ an up move. Today, they shrugged off
the deepening economic reality despite the election year frothing /
manipulations. This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market
in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in
a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national
decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the
wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and
disgorgement imposed. ].
Midnight
Trader ‘4:04 PM, Jul 30, 2010 --
·
DJIA down 1.22 (-0.01%) to 10,465.95
·
S&P 500 up 0.07 (+0.01%) to 1,101.60
·
Nasdaq up 3.01 (+0.13%) to 2,254.70
GLOBAL
SENTIMENT
·
Hang Seng down 0.3%
·
Nikkei down 1.64%
·
FTSE down 1.05%
UPSIDE
MOVERS
(+ ALU reports loss but outlook upbeat.
(+) BIDU gains in wake of reports GOOG still facing China market
troubles.
(+) PWER continues evening gain that followed aggressive earnings
beat.
(+) MCBC swings to Q2 profit.
(+) OREX reports positive study results.
(+) ACI beats Q2 earnings estimates.
(+) FO quarterly profit more than doubles.
(+) TRID beats with Q2 and guides for Q3 sales in line to above
Street view.
DOWNSIDE MOVERS
(-) CSTR missed revenue estimates.
(-) FSLR down despite raised guidance.
(-) TNAV downgraded.
MARKET DIRECTION
Stocks teetered near even late in regular session trade, eventually closing
mixed as traders were tugged in both directions by a mixed bag of earnings
reports and a basket of economic data that suggested U.S. economic growth
slowed in the second quarter and consumers grew more pessimistic. New data released Friday morning
showed real gross domestic product, the broadest read on all goods and services
produced in the United States -- rose at a 2.4% annualized rate in Q2. That's
slightly less than the 2.5% expected and well below the average 4.4% increase
over the last six months. Q1 growth was revised up to a 3.7% rise compared with
the prior estimate of a 2.7% increase.
Also, the University of Michigan showed consumer sentiment fell in late July to
67.8 from 76 in late June, MarketWatch reported. Next week, earnings season marches
forward as yet another wave of companies post financials. On Monday, Texas
Roadhouse (TXRH) and
VeriSign (VRSN) are due with numbers, followed by CBS
Corp. (CBS), Electronic Arts (ERTS), MasterCard (MA), Pfizer (PFE) and Priceline.com (PCLN) on Tuesday. On Wednesday, traders will
get a glimpse at results from News Corp. (NWS), Qwest Communications (Q),
and Time Warner (TWX).
Activision (ATVI), Barclays
(BCS) and Weight Watchers (WTW)
deliver quarterly reports on Thursday, followed by Washington Post (WPO) on Friday. On the economic front, construction
spending and the ISM Index are slated for release on Monday, followed by
personal income/spending, PCE prices, factory orders and auto and truck sales
on Tuesday. ADP employment change, ISM services and crude inventories will be
distributed Wednesday, with continuing claims and initial claims following on
Thursday. Closing out the week will be the unemployment rate, payrolls data and
consumer credit on Friday. Elsewhere
in today's market, Merck (MRK) was
lower after it reported Q2 EPS of $0.86 per share, three cents better than the
analyst mean on Thomson Reuters. Sales were $11.3 bln, in line to just below
Street estimates of $11.45 bln. For 2010, the company is guiding for EPS of
$3.29 to $3.39 per share. The Street is at $3.37 per share.
Also, Chevron (CVX) said it
earned $2.70 per share in Q2, above the Thomson Reuters mean for $2.44. Revenue
rose to $53 billion. Energy companies have benefited from boosted demand for
oil and products such as gasoline and diesel fuel as the global economy emerges
from the recession. Aon Corp. (AON) said it beat profit expectations thanks
to recent acquisitions that helped to offset a drop in comissions, according to
a Reuters report. Second-quarter net income was $153 million, or $0.63 a share,
compared with $149 million, or 50 cents a share, in the year-ago period.
Excluding items, the company made $0.81 a share. Analysts had expected the
company to earn $0.75 a share. Coinstar
Inc (CSTR) slumped as the the operator of the
Redbox rental DVD kiosks lowered its revenue projection for the current fiscal
year. The company posted second quarter earnings of $13.4 million, or 41 cents
a share, from $7 million, or 23 cents a share, a year ago. Revenue rose 35% to
$342.4 million. Other stocks
gaining on earnings included: Expedia (EXPE), Power-One (PWER) and McAfee (MFE). Earnings-driven decliners included:
NutriSystem (NTRI), Genworth
Financial (GNW) and
First Solar (FSLR). Commodities were mostly higher as gold
and crude oil futures logged gains for the session. Crude-oil for September delivery
closed up $0.59, or 0.8% at $78.95 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In other energy futures, heating oil
was up $0.01 to $2.05 a gallon while natural gas rose $0.08, to $4.91 per
million British thermal units. Meanwhile,
gold futures climbed amid a generally lackluster trading session. Gold for December delivery closed up
1.1% to $1,183.90 an ounce. In other metal futures, silver rose 2.2% to $18 a
troy ounce while copper rose $0.02 to $3.31 a pound.’
Slowing economic rebound raises
unemployment fears (AP) [Wow! Talk about understatements!]
Marc Faber Questions if Dow
Could Hit 1,000 In the August edition of the ‘The Gloom, Boom
& Doom Report’ Marc Faber questions whether the Dow could hit 1,000 as predicted by Robert Prechter, based
on his interpretation of Elliot Waves, Fibonacci numbers and socioeconomic
trends. Prechter, who has written 13
books on finance (external link), believes
that the stock market is historically overvalued in terms of dividends and
earnings, because of a “great rise in positive social mood.” But the mood
changed in 2000 and the “trend toward negative social mood will lead to an
economic contraction,” according to Prechter. “Small bear markets lead to
recessions, big bear markets lead to depressions. The current bear market will
be the biggest in nearly 300 years, so the depression will be correspondingly
deep,” Prechter said.
Wall
St falls after weak outlooks drag (Reuters) U.S. stocks sagged in volatile
trading on Thursday after weak outlooks from technology companies and downbeat
comments from a Federal Reserve official gave investors little reason to buy.
Fed says some districts report slowing economy (Reuters)
Flaws of the European Stress Test … 'Bank stress test' became the magic phrase. Nothing calms fear
like a stress test that's labeled as rigorous. The stress test raises a few
very obvious questions: 1) Will it work? 2) Why was it needed in addition to a
$1 trillion aid package? 3) Is the stress test just a gimmick to appease
investors? The stress test is conducted by the London-based Committee of
European Banking Supervisors (CEBS). Ironically, the test has ignored the
majority of banks' holdings of sovereign debt. Sovereign debt concerns by the
so-called PIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain) triggered the
latest wave of financial problems. Ignoring sovereign debt in the Euro stress
test would be like ignoring toxic real estate assets in the U.S. 10%
Good - 90% Bad According to a Morgan Stanley survey, European banks hold about 90%
of their Greek government bonds in their banking books and 10% in their trading
books. The bonds in the banking book are generally held until maturity, the
bonds in the trading book are traded more frequently. According to a document
obtained by Bloomberg, the stress test assumes a loss of 23.1% on Greek debt,
14% on Portuguese bonds, 12.3% on Spanish debt, 4.7% on German debt, 10% on
U.K. debt, and 5.9% on French debt. However, the stress test only looks at the
bonds held in banks' trading books, which account for a mere 10% of Greek bond
holdings. Can that be called a stress test? Nouriel Roubini says that 'the
assumptions made about economic growth, about sovereign risk are not realistic
enough.' The fact that only seven banks failed the test with a combined
shortfall of $4.5 billion confirms the lax nature of the test. … The U.S. Bank Stress Test - A Nice Façade A closer look under the hood of
the U.S. bank stress test, however, shows that there's not much substance
behind the facade either. It was determined that the 19 tested U.S. banks need
to increase their balance sheets by $75 billion to meet the conditions of
what's termed the 'worst case scenario.' To a large extent, the $75 billion of
additional capital was financially engineered. Banks didn't have to actually
raise $75 billion. They were able to change the label of some of their assets
on their balance sheets. The government supported this practice via mandatory
convertible preferred shares (detailed analysis in May 2009 issue of the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter) …’
Moody's:
Regional banks on review for downgrade (AP)
Consumer
confidence dims (Reuters)
Job worries drove July U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest since
February, with one in six people expecting lower income in the next six months,
underscoring the precarious state of econo...
Global
steelmakers paint gloomy picture (Reuters)
US
bank failures in 2010 surpass 100
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. bank failures this year have surpassed a bleak
milestone of 100 as regulators shut down banks in Georgia, Florida, South
Carolina, Kansas, Nevada and Minnesota. The six bank seizures announced Friday
bring to 102 the failures so far in 2010. The pace of bank closures this year
is well ahead of that of last year, which saw a total 140 bank shuttered amid
the recession and mounting loan defaults …
On the Disconnect Between the Market and the Economy Michael Shulman:
(No recession helicopter ben) Bernanke Admits Major Policy Failures; Stocks Soar Darryl Montgomery What's wrong with this picture?
In his bi-annual testimony before Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke
admitted that after more than a year and a half of zero interest rates and $3
trillion in federal deficit spending since 2008, the best case
scenario for the U.S. economy is slow growth and high unemployment. The S&P
500 is up 2.5% so far this morning on this 'good' news. Bernanke's congressional testimony included the
following statements (emphasis added by me):
"Most [FOMC] participants viewed uncertainty
about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the
majority saw [at the June Fed meeting] the risks to growth as weighted to
the downside."
"Financial conditions--though much improved
since the depth of the financial crisis--have become less supportive of
economic growth in recent months."
"Many banks continue to have a large volume
of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight.
With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank
loans outstanding have continued to contract."
"After two years of job losses, private payrolls
expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this
year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially.
In all likelihood, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the
nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009."…
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Oliver
Stone has apologized for his anti-Semitic rant, but is the damage already done.
What damage? To perceived reality as opposed to reality? When you look at
america’s pro-israel, self-destructive, contra-indicated policies, including
the hands off policy vis-ŕ-vis fraudulent wall street, you see the truth to
what he says which is what so many astute individuals are already thinking /
realizing. How can people continue to ignore the truth, to their own detriment
Think about it. Do you really think he would risk the typical onslaught if the
same weren’t true? ‘Director Oliver
Stone has been forced to make a grovelling apology over an anti-Semitic
outburst. The double Academy Award winner claimed that the Russians suffered
more during the Second World War and that there was a Jewish 'domination of the
media'. Stone also said that Jews had '****ed up' U.S. foreign policy for years
and suggested the British supported Hitler ...’ The relentless attacks on Mel
Gibson are of the same caliber and purpose; suppression of truth!
WASHPOST
Ombudsman: Why Silence on Black Panther Story? (Washington Post) ‘Thursday's Post reported about a growing
controversy over the Justice
Department's decision to scale down a voter-intimidation case against members
of the New Black Panther Party. The story succinctly summarized the issues
but left many readers with a question: What took you so long? For months,
readers have contacted the ombudsman wondering why The Post hasn't been
covering the case. The calls increased recently after competitors such as the
New York Times and the Associated Press wrote stories. Fox News and right-wing
bloggers have been pumping the story. Liberal bloggers have countered, accusing
them of trying to manufacture a scandal. But The Post has been virtually
silent. The story has its origins on Election Day in 2008, when two members of
the New Black Panther Party stood in front of a Philadelphia polling place. YouTube
video of the men, now viewed nearly 1.5 million times, shows both wearing
paramilitary clothing. One carried a nightstick…’
Latino
KKK: You are too white to be American! ALIPAC | Tan
Klan woman can scream racist comments because the Obama administration and most
of the major news networks in America have her back.
Drudgereport:
Deadliest Month Of Afghan War
Paper:
Will Washington's Failures Lead To Second American Revolution
Democrats
Say Rangel Should Resign...
Obama:
Time For Rangel To End Career 'With Dignity'...
Decision
Near On Maxine Waters Ethics Case...
Gdp:
2.4%
Mediocre
Growth...
Recession
Deeper Than Gov't Previously Thought...
Nyt:
Employment Outlook Fades...
Prince
Charles: 'My Duty Is To Save The World' … Well, so much for that. There Goes
The World! ...
AP:
A bleaker outlook for economy into 2011...
Rangel
faces 13 ethics charges...
(wobama) Calls
African-Americans a 'mongrel people'...
'We
are now in the trial phase'...
Catalonia (Dali, Picasso,
etc.) bans bullfighting (very civilized)...
CLAIM: Giant asteroid on
course to hit Earth...
SEC Says New FinReg
Law Exempts It From Public Disclosure...
Oprah Hits All-Time Ratings
Low- like O -- Again!
GOLDMAN reveals where
bailout cash went -- overseas banks!
POLLS:
NEW LOWS FOR O...
Gibbs
Misleads Public on Obama's Broken Tax Pledge...
WIKILEAKS
NIGHTMARE: 10000S OF DOCS DUMPED
Oliver Stone:
'Jewish-Dominated Media' Prevents Hitler from Being Portrayed 'in Context'...
Top U.S. officer
warns Afghan war will get worse...
Bombs kill 5 US troops...
Taliban Claims It Captured
U.S. Sailor...
Taliban claims to have captured 2 American soldiers...
Strapped towns and cities giving away land -- to cut lawn mowing bills!
LA
suburb residents march over high city salaries...
VIDEO:
Wikileaks' founder explain logs...
NKOREA
WARNS OF NUKE RESPONSE TO NAVAL EXERCISES
Bank
failure tally passes 100 for year...
BUDGET DEFICIT TO REACH RECORD $1.47 TRILLION...
WH: A 'FISCAL SITUATION THAT REQUIRES
ATTENTION'...
Kerry
Docks New Yacht In RI To Duck MA Taxes...
PRICE
TO ATTEND OBAMA'S BIRTHDAY BASH: $30,000...
CHARLIE
RANGEL CHARGED WILL
FACE TRIAL
RACE
MESS: Obama Said Vilsack 'Jumped Gun' on Woman's Ouster...
Buchanan:
Obama team's panic over losing whites...
POLL: ANY REPUBLICAN WOULD
BEAT OBAMA IN '12...
Whites, Independents
Deserting Obama...
PACK
YOUR BAGS: CONGRESS CONFIDENCE AT 11%...
37 States Join GOOGLE
Investigation...
BAILOUT REACHES $3.7
TRILLION...
Gov't watchdogs: Mortgage
program not working...
Bernanke: 'Unusually Uncertain'...
Unemployment rate high
through Obama term...
REVEALED: Secret Gold Coin
Tax Slipped Into Health Care Law...
PAPER:
The Tax Tsunami On The Horizon...
NYT THURS: Confidential documents provide detailed look
at what happened before night of oil explosion... Developing... NYT:
WORKERS ON DOOMED RIG VOICED CONCERN ON SAFETY...
Arab
guilty of rape after consensual sex with Jew... ‘An Israeli man of Arab origin has been convicted of rape after having
consensual sex with a woman who had believed him to be a fellow Jew. Sabbar
Kashur, 30, was sentenced to 18 months in prison on Monday after the court
ruled that he was guilty of rape by deception. According to the complaint filed
by the woman with the Jerusalem district court, the two met in downtown
Jerusalem in September 2008 where Kashur, an Arab from East Jerusalem,
introduced himself as a Jewish bachelor seeking a serious relationship. The two
then had consensual sex in a nearby building before Kashur left. When she later
found out that he was not Jewish but an Arab, she filed a criminal complaint
for rape and indecent assault …’
Wall
St falls after weak outlooks drag (Reuters) U.S. stocks sagged in volatile
trading on Thursday after weak outlooks from technology companies and downbeat
comments from a Federal Reserve official gave investors little reason to buy.
Fed says some districts report slowing economy (Reuters)
Flaws of the European Stress Test … 'Bank stress test' became the magic phrase. Nothing calms fear
like a stress test that's labeled as rigorous. The stress test raises a few
very obvious questions: 1) Will it work? 2) Why was it needed in addition to a
$1 trillion aid package? 3) Is the stress test just a gimmick to appease
investors? The stress test is conducted by the London-based Committee of
European Banking Supervisors (CEBS). Ironically, the test has ignored the
majority of banks' holdings of sovereign debt. Sovereign debt concerns by the
so-called PIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain) triggered the
latest wave of financial problems. Ignoring sovereign debt in the Euro stress
test would be like ignoring toxic real estate assets in the U.S. 10%
Good - 90% Bad According to a Morgan Stanley survey, European banks hold about 90%
of their Greek government bonds in their banking books and 10% in their trading
books. The bonds in the banking book are generally held until maturity, the
bonds in the trading book are traded more frequently. According to a document
obtained by Bloomberg, the stress test assumes a loss of 23.1% on Greek debt,
14% on Portuguese bonds, 12.3% on Spanish debt, 4.7% on German debt, 10% on
U.K. debt, and 5.9% on French debt. However, the stress test only looks at the
bonds held in banks' trading books, which account for a mere 10% of Greek bond
holdings. Can that be called a stress test? Nouriel Roubini says that 'the
assumptions made about economic growth, about sovereign risk are not realistic
enough.' The fact that only seven banks failed the test with a combined
shortfall of $4.5 billion confirms the lax nature of the test. … The U.S. Bank Stress Test - A Nice Façade A closer look under the hood of
the U.S. bank stress test, however, shows that there's not much substance
behind the facade either. It was determined that the 19 tested U.S. banks need
to increase their balance sheets by $75 billion to meet the conditions of
what's termed the 'worst case scenario.' To a large extent, the $75 billion of
additional capital was financially engineered. Banks didn't have to actually
raise $75 billion. They were able to change the label of some of their assets
on their balance sheets. The government supported this practice via mandatory
convertible preferred shares (detailed analysis in May 2009 issue of the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter) …’
The US Coast Guard dispatched emergency
teams Tuesday after a boat crashed into an oil well off the coast of New
Orleans, reportedly sending crude spewing some 20 feet into the air.
Moody's:
Regional banks on review for downgrade (AP)
Consumer
confidence dims (Reuters)
Job worries drove July U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest since
February, with one in six people expecting lower income in the next six months,
underscoring the precarious state of econo...
Global
steelmakers paint gloomy picture (Reuters)
This is a global depression. This is a secular bear
market in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***)
cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as
has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street
frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street
churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not
end until justice is served and the wall
street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement
imposed.
US
bank failures in 2010 surpass 100
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. bank failures this year have surpassed a bleak
milestone of 100 as regulators shut down banks in Georgia, Florida, South
Carolina, Kansas, Nevada and Minnesota. The six bank seizures announced Friday
bring to 102 the failures so far in 2010. The pace of bank closures this year
is well ahead of that of last year, which saw a total 140 bank shuttered amid
the recession and mounting loan defaults …
On the Disconnect Between the Market and the Economy Michael Shulman: ‘It has been an interesting 24 hours.
All within 24
hours. And with all this bearish data the market is up 2.5%, ostensibly because
of earnings and a bump in European exports. What is really going on is a
massive day trade and short covering rally based on a cheapening dollar as bond
prices rise and interest rates fall. Not to mention Bernanke said things are
weak, may get weaker, and that means more liquidity and cheaper capital to
borrow and trade. Markets can move on their own for a while -- but not forever.
The economy will catch up with corporate profits and bullish trading. The
longer reality is ignored or pushed aside for a daily trade, the harder stocks
will fall. Right now, we are on plan for a slow motion train wreck. The longer
it takes for the beginning of the derailment, the harder that train will crash.
Don’t take my word for it. Perhaps the greatest and certainly one of the most
respected technicians in the world, Louise Yamada, does not see many good
things happening. Just listen. She sees
the market giving us a sell signal based on failed rallies. Not to mention she
believes we are in a structural bear market similar to 1929-1942. That bear
market ended, sort of, with the Japanese bombing Pearl Harbor. Weakening
fundamentals, based on data and not wishful thinking, plus the best technician
in the world is seeing a correction. Sounds like the market is increasingly
separate from reality.’
(No recession helicopter ben) Bernanke Admits Major Policy Failures; Stocks Soar Darryl Montgomery What's wrong with this picture?
In his bi-annual testimony before Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke
admitted that after more than a year and a half of zero interest rates and $3 trillion
in federal deficit spending since 2008, the best case scenario for the
U.S. economy is slow growth and high unemployment. The S&P 500 is up 2.5%
so far this morning on this 'good' news. Bernanke's congressional testimony included the
following statements (emphasis added by me):
"Most [FOMC] participants viewed uncertainty
about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the
majority saw [at the June Fed meeting] the risks to growth as weighted to
the downside."
"Financial conditions--though much improved
since the depth of the financial crisis--have become less supportive of
economic growth in recent months."
"Many banks continue to have a large volume
of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight.
With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank
loans outstanding have continued to contract."
"After two years of job losses, private payrolls
expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this
year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially.
In all likelihood, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the
nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009."…
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Oliver
Stone has apologized for his anti-Semitic rant, but is the damage already done.
What damage? To perceived reality as opposed to reality? When you look at
america’s pro-israel, self-destructive, contra-indicated policies, including
the hands off policy vis-ŕ-vis fraudulent wall street, you see the truth to
what he says which is what so many astute individuals are already thinking /
realizing. How can people continue to ignore the truth, to their own detriment
Think about it. Do you really think he would risk the typical onslaught if the
same weren’t true? ‘Director Oliver
Stone has been forced to make a grovelling apology over an anti-Semitic
outburst. The double Academy Award winner claimed that the Russians suffered
more during the Second World War and that there was a Jewish 'domination of the
media'. Stone also said that Jews had '****ed up' U.S. foreign policy for years
and suggested the British supported Hitler ...’ The relentless attacks on Mel
Gibson are of the same caliber and purpose; suppression of truth!
WASHPOST
Ombudsman: Why Silence on Black Panther Story? (Washington
Post) ‘Thursday's Post reported about a growing controversy over the Justice
Department's decision to scale down a voter-intimidation case against members
of the New Black Panther Party. The story succinctly summarized the issues
but left many readers with a question: What took you so long? For months,
readers have contacted the ombudsman wondering why The Post hasn't been
covering the case. The calls increased recently after competitors such as the New
York Times and the Associated Press wrote stories. Fox News and right-wing
bloggers have been pumping the story. Liberal bloggers have countered, accusing
them of trying to manufacture a scandal. But The Post has been virtually
silent. The story has its origins on Election Day in 2008, when two members of
the New Black Panther Party stood in front of a Philadelphia polling place. YouTube
video of the men, now viewed nearly 1.5 million times, shows both wearing
paramilitary clothing. One carried a nightstick…’
Latino
KKK: You are too white to be American! ALIPAC | Tan
Klan woman can scream racist comments because the Obama administration and most
of the major news networks in America have her back.
Drudgereport:
AP:
A bleaker outlook for economy into 2011...
Rangel
faces 13 ethics charges...
(wobama) Calls
African-Americans a 'mongrel people'...
'We
are now in the trial phase'...
Catalonia (Dali, Picasso,
etc.) bans bullfighting (very civilized)...
CLAIM: Giant asteroid on
course to hit Earth...
SEC Says New
FinReg Law Exempts It From Public Disclosure...
Oprah Hits All-Time Ratings
Low- like O -- Again!
GOLDMAN reveals where
bailout cash went -- overseas banks!
POLLS:
NEW LOWS FOR O...
Gibbs
Misleads Public on Obama's Broken Tax Pledge...
WIKILEAKS
NIGHTMARE: 10000S OF DOCS DUMPED
Oliver Stone:
'Jewish-Dominated Media' Prevents Hitler from Being Portrayed 'in Context'...
Top U.S. officer
warns Afghan war will get worse...
Bombs kill 5 US troops...
Taliban Claims It Captured
U.S. Sailor...
Taliban claims to have captured 2 American soldiers...
Strapped towns and cities giving away land -- to cut lawn mowing bills!
LA
suburb residents march over high city salaries...
VIDEO:
Wikileaks' founder explain logs...
NKOREA
WARNS OF NUKE RESPONSE TO NAVAL EXERCISES
Bank
failure tally passes 100 for year...
BUDGET DEFICIT TO REACH RECORD $1.47 TRILLION...
WH: A 'FISCAL SITUATION THAT REQUIRES
ATTENTION'...
Kerry
Docks New Yacht In RI To Duck MA Taxes...
PRICE
TO ATTEND OBAMA'S BIRTHDAY BASH: $30,000...
CHARLIE
RANGEL CHARGED WILL
FACE TRIAL
RACE
MESS: Obama Said Vilsack 'Jumped Gun' on Woman's Ouster...
Buchanan:
Obama team's panic over losing whites...
POLL: ANY REPUBLICAN WOULD
BEAT OBAMA IN '12...
Whites, Independents
Deserting Obama...
PACK
YOUR BAGS: CONGRESS CONFIDENCE AT 11%...
37 States Join GOOGLE
Investigation...
BAILOUT REACHES $3.7
TRILLION...
Gov't watchdogs: Mortgage
program not working...
Bernanke: 'Unusually Uncertain'...
Unemployment rate high
through Obama term...
REVEALED: Secret Gold Coin
Tax Slipped Into Health Care Law...
PAPER:
The Tax Tsunami On The Horizon...
NYT THURS: Confidential documents provide detailed look
at what happened before night of oil explosion... Developing... NYT:
WORKERS ON DOOMED RIG VOICED CONCERN ON SAFETY...
Arab
guilty of rape after consensual sex with Jew... ‘An Israeli man of Arab origin has been convicted of rape after having
consensual sex with a woman who had believed him to be a fellow Jew. Sabbar
Kashur, 30, was sentenced to 18 months in prison on Monday after the court
ruled that he was guilty of rape by deception. According to the complaint filed
by the woman with the Jerusalem district court, the two met in downtown
Jerusalem in September 2008 where Kashur, an Arab from East Jerusalem,
introduced himself as a Jewish bachelor seeking a serious relationship. The two
then had consensual sex in a nearby building before Kashur left. When she later
found out that he was not Jewish but an Arab, she filed a criminal complaint
for rape and indecent assault …’
Fed says some districts report slowing economy (Reuters)
Flaws of the European Stress Test … 'Bank stress test' became the magic phrase. Nothing calms fear
like a stress test that's labeled as rigorous. The stress test raises a few
very obvious questions: 1) Will it work? 2) Why was it needed in addition to a
$1 trillion aid package? 3) Is the stress test just a gimmick to appease investors?
The stress test is conducted by the London-based Committee of European Banking
Supervisors (CEBS). Ironically, the test has ignored the majority of banks'
holdings of sovereign debt. Sovereign debt concerns by the so-called PIGS
countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain) triggered the latest wave of
financial problems. Ignoring sovereign debt in the Euro stress test would be
like ignoring toxic real estate assets in the U.S. 10%
Good - 90% Bad According to a Morgan Stanley survey, European banks hold about 90%
of their Greek government bonds in their banking books and 10% in their trading
books. The bonds in the banking book are generally held until maturity, the
bonds in the trading book are traded more frequently. According to a document
obtained by Bloomberg, the stress test assumes a loss of 23.1% on Greek debt,
14% on Portuguese bonds, 12.3% on Spanish debt, 4.7% on German debt, 10% on
U.K. debt, and 5.9% on French debt. However, the stress test only looks at the
bonds held in banks' trading books, which account for a mere 10% of Greek bond
holdings. Can that be called a stress test? Nouriel Roubini says that 'the
assumptions made about economic growth, about sovereign risk are not realistic
enough.' The fact that only seven banks failed the test with a combined
shortfall of $4.5 billion confirms the lax nature of the test. … The U.S. Bank Stress Test - A Nice Façade A closer look under the hood of
the U.S. bank stress test, however, shows that there's not much substance
behind the facade either. It was determined that the 19 tested U.S. banks need
to increase their balance sheets by $75 billion to meet the conditions of
what's termed the 'worst case scenario.' To a large extent, the $75 billion of
additional capital was financially engineered. Banks didn't have to actually
raise $75 billion. They were able to change the label of some of their assets
on their balance sheets. The government supported this practice via mandatory
convertible preferred shares (detailed analysis in May 2009 issue of the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter) …’
The US Coast Guard dispatched emergency
teams Tuesday after a boat crashed into an oil well off the coast of New
Orleans, reportedly sending crude spewing some 20 feet into the air.
Moody's:
Regional banks on review for downgrade (AP)
Consumer
confidence dims (Reuters)
Job worries drove July U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest since
February, with one in six people expecting lower income in the next six months,
underscoring the precarious state of econo...
Global
steelmakers paint gloomy picture (Reuters)
This is a global depression. This is a secular bear
market in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***)
cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as
has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street
frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street
churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not
end until justice is served and the wall
street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement
imposed.
US
bank failures in 2010 surpass 100
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. bank failures this year have surpassed a bleak
milestone of 100 as regulators shut down banks in Georgia, Florida, South
Carolina, Kansas, Nevada and Minnesota. The six bank seizures announced Friday
bring to 102 the failures so far in 2010. The pace of bank closures this year
is well ahead of that of last year, which saw a total 140 bank shuttered amid
the recession and mounting loan defaults …
On the Disconnect Between the Market and the Economy Michael Shulman: ‘It has been an interesting 24 hours.
All within 24
hours. And with all this bearish data the market is up 2.5%, ostensibly because
of earnings and a bump in European exports. What is really going on is a
massive day trade and short covering rally based on a cheapening dollar as bond
prices rise and interest rates fall. Not to mention Bernanke said things are
weak, may get weaker, and that means more liquidity and cheaper capital to
borrow and trade. Markets can move on their own for a while -- but not forever.
The economy will catch up with corporate profits and bullish trading. The
longer reality is ignored or pushed aside for a daily trade, the harder stocks
will fall. Right now, we are on plan for a slow motion train wreck. The longer
it takes for the beginning of the derailment, the harder that train will crash.
Don’t take my word for it. Perhaps the greatest and certainly one of the most
respected technicians in the world, Louise Yamada, does not see many good
things happening. Just listen. She sees
the market giving us a sell signal based on failed rallies. Not to mention she
believes we are in a structural bear market similar to 1929-1942. That bear
market ended, sort of, with the Japanese bombing Pearl Harbor. Weakening
fundamentals, based on data and not wishful thinking, plus the best technician
in the world is seeing a correction. Sounds like the market is increasingly
separate from reality.’
(No recession helicopter ben) Bernanke Admits Major Policy Failures; Stocks Soar Darryl Montgomery What's wrong with this picture?
In his bi-annual testimony before Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke
admitted that after more than a year and a half of zero interest rates and $3 trillion
in federal deficit spending since 2008, the best case scenario for the
U.S. economy is slow growth and high unemployment. The S&P 500 is up 2.5%
so far this morning on this 'good' news. Bernanke's congressional testimony included the
following statements (emphasis added by me):
"Most [FOMC] participants viewed uncertainty
about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the
majority saw [at the June Fed meeting] the risks to growth as weighted to
the downside."
"Financial conditions--though much improved
since the depth of the financial crisis--have become less supportive of
economic growth in recent months."
"Many banks continue to have a large volume
of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight.
With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank
loans outstanding have continued to contract."
"After two years of job losses, private payrolls
expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this
year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially.
In all likelihood, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the
nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009."…
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Oliver
Stone has apologized for his anti-Semitic rant, but is the damage already done.
What damage? To perceived reality as opposed to reality? When you look at
america’s pro-israel, self-destructive, contra-indicated policies, including
the hands off policy vis-ŕ-vis fraudulent wall street, you see the truth to
what he says which is what so many astute individuals are already thinking /
realizing. How can people continue to ignore the truth, to their own detriment
Think about it. Do you really think he would risk the typical onslaught if the
same weren’t true? ‘Director Oliver
Stone has been forced to make a grovelling apology over an anti-Semitic
outburst. The double Academy Award winner claimed that the Russians suffered
more during the Second World War and that there was a Jewish 'domination of the
media'. Stone also said that Jews had '****ed up' U.S. foreign policy for years
and suggested the British supported Hitler ...’ The relentless attacks on Mel
Gibson are of the same caliber and purpose; suppression of truth!
WASHPOST
Ombudsman: Why Silence on Black Panther Story? (Washington
Post) ‘Thursday's Post reported about a growing controversy over the Justice
Department's decision to scale down a voter-intimidation case against members
of the New Black Panther Party. The story succinctly summarized the issues
but left many readers with a question: What took you so long? For months,
readers have contacted the ombudsman wondering why The Post hasn't been
covering the case. The calls increased recently after competitors such as the
New York Times and the Associated Press wrote stories. Fox News and right-wing
bloggers have been pumping the story. Liberal bloggers have countered, accusing
them of trying to manufacture a scandal. But The Post has been virtually
silent. The story has its origins on Election Day in 2008, when two members of
the New Black Panther Party stood in front of a Philadelphia polling place. YouTube
video of the men, now viewed nearly 1.5 million times, shows both wearing
paramilitary clothing. One carried a nightstick…’
Latino
KKK: You are too white to be American! ALIPAC | Tan
Klan woman can scream racist comments because the Obama administration and most
of the major news networks in America have her back.
Drudgereport:
Catalonia (Dali, Picasso,
etc.) bans bullfighting (very civilized)...
CLAIM: Giant asteroid on
course to hit Earth...
SEC Says New
FinReg Law Exempts It From Public Disclosure...
Oprah Hits All-Time Ratings
Low- like O -- Again!
GOLDMAN reveals where
bailout cash went -- overseas banks!
POLLS:
NEW LOWS FOR O...
Gibbs
Misleads Public on Obama's Broken Tax Pledge...
WIKILEAKS
NIGHTMARE: 10000S OF DOCS DUMPED
Oliver Stone:
'Jewish-Dominated Media' Prevents Hitler from Being Portrayed 'in Context'...
Top U.S. officer
warns Afghan war will get worse...
Bombs kill 5 US troops...
Taliban Claims It Captured
U.S. Sailor...
Taliban claims to have captured 2 American soldiers...
Strapped towns and cities giving away land -- to cut lawn mowing bills!
LA
suburb residents march over high city salaries...
VIDEO:
Wikileaks' founder explain logs...
NKOREA
WARNS OF NUKE RESPONSE TO NAVAL EXERCISES
Bank
failure tally passes 100 for year...
BUDGET DEFICIT TO REACH RECORD $1.47 TRILLION...
WH: A 'FISCAL SITUATION THAT REQUIRES
ATTENTION'...
Kerry
Docks New Yacht In RI To Duck MA Taxes...
PRICE
TO ATTEND OBAMA'S BIRTHDAY BASH: $30,000...
CHARLIE
RANGEL CHARGED WILL
FACE TRIAL
RACE
MESS: Obama Said Vilsack 'Jumped Gun' on Woman's Ouster...
Buchanan:
Obama team's panic over losing whites...
POLL: ANY REPUBLICAN WOULD
BEAT OBAMA IN '12...
Whites, Independents
Deserting Obama...
PACK
YOUR BAGS: CONGRESS CONFIDENCE AT 11%...
37 States Join GOOGLE
Investigation...
BAILOUT REACHES $3.7
TRILLION...
Gov't watchdogs: Mortgage
program not working...
Bernanke: 'Unusually Uncertain'...
Unemployment rate high
through Obama term...
REVEALED: Secret Gold Coin
Tax Slipped Into Health Care Law...
PAPER:
The Tax Tsunami On The Horizon...
NYT THURS: Confidential documents provide detailed look
at what happened before night of oil explosion... Developing... NYT:
WORKERS ON DOOMED RIG VOICED CONCERN ON SAFETY...
Arab
guilty of rape after consensual sex with Jew... ‘An Israeli man of Arab origin has been convicted of rape after having
consensual sex with a woman who had believed him to be a fellow Jew. Sabbar
Kashur, 30, was sentenced to 18 months in prison on Monday after the court
ruled that he was guilty of rape by deception. According to the complaint filed
by the woman with the Jerusalem district court, the two met in downtown
Jerusalem in September 2008 where Kashur, an Arab from East Jerusalem,
introduced himself as a Jewish bachelor seeking a serious relationship. The two
then had consensual sex in a nearby building before Kashur left. When she later
found out that he was not Jewish but an Arab, she filed a criminal complaint
for rape and indecent assault …’
Moody's:
Regional banks on review for downgrade (AP)
Consumer
confidence dims (Reuters)
Job worries drove July U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest since
February, with one in six people expecting lower income in the next six months,
underscoring the precarious state of econo...
Global
steelmakers paint gloomy picture (Reuters)
Basel
committee agrees new bank capital rules New banking rules to prevent a
repeat of the financial crisis will not come fully into force for seven and a
half years as part of a “broad accord” on the design of banking reform struck
on Monday by global regulators.
College
Students Hide Hunger, Homelessness NPR | There is a little-known but growing population of
financially stressed students, who are facing hunger and sometimes even
homelessness.
This is still an especially great opportunity to sell and take
whatever profits / gains because there is truly much worse to come and the
nation’s defacto bankrupt in every way.
The Death of Paper Money Ambrose
Evans-Pritchard | As they
prepare for holiday reading in Tuscany, City bankers are buying up rare copies
of an obscure book on the mechanics of Weimar inflation published in 1974.
Yes! I just (7-24-10) looked up and a
quandary no longer as I saw the reason for the market action to the upside the
last few sessions. A blazing full moon! Lest there be any doubt, truly a
testament to the reality of lunacy and the lunar links thereto are the lunatic
fraudulent rallies on fraudulent wall street; criminally insane by any
standard.
This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market
in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in
a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not
end until justice is served and the wall
street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement
imposed.
US
bank failures in 2010 surpass 100
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. bank failures this year have surpassed a bleak
milestone of 100 as regulators shut down banks in Georgia, Florida, South
Carolina, Kansas, Nevada and Minnesota. The six bank seizures announced Friday
bring to 102 the failures so far in 2010. The pace of bank closures this year
is well ahead of that of last year, which saw a total 140 bank shuttered amid
the recession and mounting loan defaults …
AP Business
Highlights ‘…
It had been thought that some banks needed to fail for the exercise to be
accepted as credible, and some analysts still argued that the results showed
the tests weren't rigorous enough -- the euro was trading flat on the day after
the release of the results at just below $1.29. Pay czar chose not to go after
$1.6B in bank pay …‘
On the Disconnect Between the Market and the Economy Michael Shulman: ‘It has been an interesting 24 hours.
All within 24
hours. And with all this bearish data the market is up 2.5%, ostensibly because
of earnings and a bump in European exports. What is really going on is a
massive day trade and short covering rally based on a cheapening dollar as bond
prices rise and interest rates fall. Not to mention Bernanke said things are
weak, may get weaker, and that means more liquidity and cheaper capital to
borrow and trade. Markets can move on their own for a while -- but not forever.
The economy will catch up with corporate profits and bullish trading. The
longer reality is ignored or pushed aside for a daily trade, the harder stocks
will fall. Right now, we are on plan for a slow motion train wreck. The longer
it takes for the beginning of the derailment, the harder that train will crash.
Don’t take my word for it. Perhaps the greatest and certainly one of the most
respected technicians in the world, Louise Yamada, does not see many good
things happening. Just listen. She sees
the market giving us a sell signal based on failed rallies. Not to mention she
believes we are in a structural bear market similar to 1929-1942. That bear
market ended, sort of, with the Japanese bombing Pearl Harbor. Weakening
fundamentals, based on data and not wishful thinking, plus the best technician
in the world is seeing a correction. Sounds like the market is increasingly
separate from reality.’
(No recession helicopter ben) Bernanke Admits Major Policy Failures; Stocks Soar Darryl Montgomery What's wrong with this picture?
In his bi-annual testimony before Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke
admitted that after more than a year and a half of zero interest rates and $3
trillion in federal deficit spending since 2008, the best case
scenario for the U.S. economy is slow growth and high unemployment. The S&P
500 is up 2.5% so far this morning on this 'good' news. Bernanke's congressional testimony included the
following statements (emphasis added by me):
"Most [FOMC] participants viewed uncertainty
about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the
majority saw [at the June Fed meeting] the risks to growth as weighted to
the downside."
"Financial conditions--though much improved since
the depth of the financial crisis--have become less supportive of economic
growth in recent months."
"Many banks continue to have a large volume
of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight.
With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank
loans outstanding have continued to contract."
"After two years of job losses, private payrolls
expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this
year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially.
In all likelihood, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the
nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009."…
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Oliver
Stone has apologized for his anti-Semitic rant, but is the damage already done.
What damage? To perceived reality as opposed to reality? When you look at
america’s pro-israel, self-destructive, contra-indicated policies, including
the hands off policy vis-ŕ-vis fraudulent wall street, you see the truth to
what he says which is what so many astute individuals are already thinking /
realizing. How can people continue to ignore the truth, to their own detriment
Think about it. Do you really think he would risk the typical onslaught if the
same weren’t true? ‘Director Oliver
Stone has been forced to make a grovelling apology over an anti-Semitic
outburst. The double Academy Award winner claimed that the Russians suffered
more during the Second World War and that there was a Jewish 'domination of the
media'. Stone also said that Jews had '****ed up' U.S. foreign policy for years
and suggested the British supported Hitler ...’ The relentless attacks on Mel
Gibson are of the same caliber and purpose; suppression of truth!
WASHPOST
Ombudsman: Why Silence on Black Panther Story? (Washington
Post) ‘Thursday's Post reported about a growing controversy over the Justice
Department's decision to scale down a voter-intimidation case against members
of the New Black Panther Party. The story succinctly summarized the issues
but left many readers with a question: What took you so long? For months,
readers have contacted the ombudsman wondering why The Post hasn't been
covering the case. The calls increased recently after competitors such as the
New York Times and the Associated Press wrote stories. Fox News and right-wing
bloggers have been pumping the story. Liberal bloggers have countered, accusing
them of trying to manufacture a scandal. But The Post has been virtually
silent. The story has its origins on Election Day in 2008, when two members of
the New Black Panther Party stood in front of a Philadelphia polling place. YouTube
video of the men, now viewed nearly 1.5 million times, shows both wearing
paramilitary clothing. One carried a nightstick…’
Latino
KKK: You are too white to be American! ALIPAC | Tan Klan woman can scream racist comments because
the Obama administration and most of the major news networks in America have
her back.
Drudgereport:
GOLDMAN reveals where
bailout cash went -- overseas banks!
POLLS:
NEW LOWS FOR O...
Gibbs
Misleads Public on Obama's Broken Tax Pledge...
WIKILEAKS
NIGHTMARE: 10000S OF DOCS DUMPED
Oliver Stone:
'Jewish-Dominated Media' Prevents Hitler from Being Portrayed 'in Context'...
Top U.S. officer
warns Afghan war will get worse...
Bombs kill 5 US troops...
Taliban Claims It Captured
U.S. Sailor...
Taliban claims to have captured 2 American soldiers...
Strapped towns and cities giving away land -- to cut lawn mowing bills!
LA
suburb residents march over high city salaries...
VIDEO:
Wikileaks' founder explain logs...
NKOREA
WARNS OF NUKE RESPONSE TO NAVAL EXERCISES
Bank
failure tally passes 100 for year...
BUDGET DEFICIT TO REACH RECORD $1.47 TRILLION...
WH: A 'FISCAL SITUATION THAT REQUIRES
ATTENTION'...
Kerry
Docks New Yacht In RI To Duck MA Taxes...
PRICE
TO ATTEND OBAMA'S BIRTHDAY BASH: $30,000...
CHARLIE
RANGEL CHARGED WILL
FACE TRIAL
RACE
MESS: Obama Said Vilsack 'Jumped Gun' on Woman's Ouster...
Buchanan:
Obama team's panic over losing whites...
POLL: ANY REPUBLICAN WOULD
BEAT OBAMA IN '12...
Whites, Independents
Deserting Obama...
PACK
YOUR BAGS: CONGRESS CONFIDENCE AT 11%...
37 States Join GOOGLE
Investigation...
BAILOUT REACHES $3.7
TRILLION...
Gov't watchdogs: Mortgage
program not working...
Bernanke: 'Unusually Uncertain'...
Unemployment rate high
through Obama term...
REVEALED: Secret Gold Coin
Tax Slipped Into Health Care Law...
PAPER:
The Tax Tsunami On The Horizon...
NYT THURS: Confidential documents provide detailed look
at what happened before night of oil explosion... Developing... NYT:
WORKERS ON DOOMED RIG VOICED CONCERN ON SAFETY...
Arab
guilty of rape after consensual sex with Jew... ‘An Israeli man of Arab origin has been convicted of rape after having
consensual sex with a woman who had believed him to be a fellow Jew. Sabbar
Kashur, 30, was sentenced to 18 months in prison on Monday after the court
ruled that he was guilty of rape by deception. According to the complaint filed
by the woman with the Jerusalem district court, the two met in downtown
Jerusalem in September 2008 where Kashur, an Arab from East Jerusalem,
introduced himself as a Jewish bachelor seeking a serious relationship. The two
then had consensual sex in a nearby building before Kashur left. When she later
found out that he was not Jewish but an Arab, she filed a criminal complaint
for rape and indecent assault …’
This is quite incredible. The wobama market … based on b*** s***
alone. Yes, there’s a waning full moon. Yes, this is an election year and we’ve
seen frothing, false data / reports before. But come on! This is downright ridiculous.
I had occasion to hear from a so-called money manager on what used to be a
balanced business / finance radio program (I seldom listen to said program
anymore, truth be told, but owing to a scheduling quirk caught same this day)
say that all the economic / business news last week was good. In point of fact,
the actual news was all bad (except for some sporadic earnings reports that
were discounted many months ago). What parallel universe are these foisty
feisty frauds living in? Again, waning full moon Then the infamous federal but
not really federal, express in only a month (with blazing full moon) changed
downward guidance to upward guidance and based on b*** s***, and voila …
another full moon rally (oh yeah, the percentage up from low level housing
still low). Are the 30 day lunar cycles at work or just election year frothing?
Preposterous. Fundamentals have not changed. Structural problems to the economy
and insurmountable debt remain and will worsen. All their computer programmed
trading tricks with eye towards so-called technical support, resistance, etc.,
levels will suck some suckers in as always, they’ll still get their commissions
on the way down, and we’ll see the bubble deflate again.
This is an especially great opportunity to sell and take whatever
profits / gains because there is truly much worse to come and the nation’s
defacto bankrupt in every way.
This Week in the Markets - Suttmeier ‘ …Bank Failure Friday – The FDIC closed
seven banks last Friday bringing the total for the month of July to 17 and 103
for the year. Month to date bank failures have drained the FDIC Deposit
Insurance fund by $925.7 million brining the year to date today to $18.5
billion well above the $15.33 billion prepaid assessments for all of 2010. I
estimate that the DIF is now in arrears by $32.7 billion.
The Death of Paper Money Ambrose
Evans-Pritchard | As they
prepare for holiday reading in Tuscany, City bankers are buying up rare copies
of an obscure book on the mechanics of Weimar inflation published in 1974.
Yes! I just (7-24-10) looked up and a
quandary no longer as I saw the reason for the market action to the upside the
last few sessions. A blazing full moon! Lest there be any doubt, truly a
testament to the reality of lunacy and the lunar links thereto are the lunatic
fraudulent rallies on fraudulent wall street; criminally insane by any
standard.
This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market
in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in
a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not
end until justice is served and the wall
street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement
imposed.
ETF Investing: S&P 500 ETF
sending bearish signal …After hitting its 2010 peak in April, the $70 billion SPDR S&P
500 ETF(SPY 110.41, +0.95, +0.87%) has been in a downtrend punctuated by fizzled low-volume rallies and
lower highs. Since the end of May, the ETF has bounced between a range of about
$101 to $114 a share as bulls and bears fight for the upper hand … BACKWARD STEPS Yet since Memorial Day, a disturbing trend for bulls has been that
when trading volume picks up, it usually means selling and lower stock
prices.Between the sell-offs, the rallies have been characterized by fading
volume as investors fret over European sovereign debt. Recent U.S. data on the
economy and housing market have disappointed after the expiration of home-buyer
tax credits, further weighing on sentiment and stoking fears of a double-dip
recession. See related story on market-timing indicators.Since
the beginning of June, the three highest-volume days in the SPDR S&P 500
ETF by share volume have resulted in declines. Two of those days resulted in
losses of at least 3% -- on June 3 and 29. In July, the two most-active
sessions also ended with stocks in the red. One was July 16, when the fund
plunged nearly 3%.The S&P 500 and ETFs that follow it have failed numerous
attempts in the wake of the May 6 "flash crash" to break through
their 50-day moving average, a closely watched technical indicator. Last week's
rally did push the ETF above this average, and traders will be watching to see
if it can hold.In another potentially bearish signal, the 50-day moving average
earlier this month dropped below the 200-day moving average. Chart followers
call this event a "death cross," and the last one presaged the 2008
sell-off. Death crosses ring alarm bells with technical analysts, but their
forecasting track record is mixed. See recent analysis on the death cross.Meanwhile,
falling Treasury yields and massive inflows to bond funds highlight investors'
unease and desire for safety. For example, the $3.5 billion iShares Barclays
20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT 99.78, -1.07, -1.06%) has rallied more than 10% this year -- bond prices and yields move in
opposite directions. Treasury yields did rally Friday on relief the European
bank stress tests didn't hold any negative surprises.Still, the stock market
appears to be pricing in a much stronger economic recovery than the
fixed-income market, and analysts say both can't be right. CAUTIOUS OUTLOOKStandard & Poor's Global Investment Policy Committee in a July 21
outlook recommended underweighting equities and overweighting cash.
"Heightened volatility, caused by plunging Treasury yields, global economic
growth concerns, and sovereign debt worries, increase the range of investment
outcomes, and therefore merit a more conservative investment stance,"
S&P said."The S&P 500 remains in an intermediate-term downtrend
off the bull-market highs from April, with prices trapped between strong
overhead on the upside and an apparent sturdy floor on the downside," the
committee added. "Specifically, we see the S&P 500 trapped between the
June highs up around 1,130 and the July lows down around 1,020."Another potential
red flag is how S&P 500 stocks have been moving as a herd either up or
down. Earlier this month, the component stocks' correlation to the S&P 500
rose to the highest level since the October 1987 crash, The Wall Street Journal
reported. See previous story on the herd instinct at WSJ.com."There
has been a lot of discussion over the past few weeks concerning the increased
correlation between individual equities. Basically, on days when the market is
up, it seems that all stocks go up, and on days when the market is down,
everything is lower," Bespoke Investment Group said in a July 22
report.One primary reason for the trend can be traced to the increased popularity
of ETFs, such as the largest one tracking the S&P 500, Bespoke said.
Individual stock correlation "bottomed in 1993, which was coincidentally
the year that SPY began trading," it added, referring to the SPDR S&P
500 ETF's ticker symbol. "Since then, the increased correlation among
stocks has increased in lockstep with moves in SPY's volume."Bespoke
concluded: "There has never been a period in the market's history where
individual stocks traded in such lockstep with each other than they did in
2009. Now, even though we have since seen a decline in the relationship,
current levels are now higher ... than they were in more than 98% of all other
days since 1929. For better or worse, you can blame it on the SPY."
US
bank failures in 2010 surpass 100
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. bank failures this year have surpassed a bleak
milestone of 100 as regulators shut down banks in Georgia, Florida, South
Carolina, Kansas, Nevada and Minnesota. The six bank seizures announced Friday
bring to 102 the failures so far in 2010. The pace of bank closures this year
is well ahead of that of last year, which saw a total 140 bank shuttered amid
the recession and mounting loan defaults …
AP Business
Highlights ‘…
It had been thought that some banks needed to fail for the exercise to be
accepted as credible, and some analysts still argued that the results showed
the tests weren't rigorous enough -- the euro was trading flat on the day after
the release of the results at just below $1.29. Pay czar chose not to go after
$1.6B in bank pay …‘
YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]
‘ … Despite what would seem like a strong outcome to the bank examinations,
market participants were generally unfazed by the midday announcement. That's
largely because the stringency of the tests was unclear and the tests didn't
really do anything to address concerns about the pace of the economic recovery
following the testimony of Fed Chairman Bernanke earlier this week ...‘
Seven
banks fail Europe stress test (Reuters) LONDON/MADRID (Reuters) – Just seven European banks
failed a health check and were ordered to raise their capital by 3.5 billion
euros ($4.5 billion), much less than expected, confirming fears the continent's
long-awaited stress test was too soft…
Smoking
Guns of U.S. Treasury Monetization Jim
Willie |
A significant feature of fiat money systems is the privilege for the custodian
of the reserve currency to engage in regular practices of ham-fisted monetary
management.
On the Disconnect Between the Market and the Economy Michael Shulman: ‘It has been an interesting 24 hours.
All within 24
hours. And with all this bearish data the market is up 2.5%, ostensibly because
of earnings and a bump in European exports. What is really going on is a
massive day trade and short covering rally based on a cheapening dollar as bond
prices rise and interest rates fall. Not to mention Bernanke said things are
weak, may get weaker, and that means more liquidity and cheaper capital to
borrow and trade. Markets can move on their own for a while -- but not forever.
The economy will catch up with corporate profits and bullish trading. The
longer reality is ignored or pushed aside for a daily trade, the harder stocks
will fall. Right now, we are on plan for a slow motion train wreck. The longer
it takes for the beginning of the derailment, the harder that train will crash.
Don’t take my word for it. Perhaps the greatest and certainly one of the most
respected technicians in the world, Louise Yamada, does not see many good
things happening. Just listen. She sees
the market giving us a sell signal based on failed rallies. Not to mention she
believes we are in a structural bear market similar to 1929-1942. That bear
market ended, sort of, with the Japanese bombing Pearl Harbor. Weakening
fundamentals, based on data and not wishful thinking, plus the best technician
in the world is seeing a correction. Sounds like the market is increasingly
separate from reality.’
(No recession helicopter ben) Bernanke Admits Major Policy Failures; Stocks Soar Darryl Montgomery What's wrong with this picture?
In his bi-annual testimony before Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke
admitted that after more than a year and a half of zero interest rates and $3
trillion in federal deficit spending since 2008, the best case
scenario for the U.S. economy is slow growth and high unemployment. The S&P
500 is up 2.5% so far this morning on this 'good' news. Bernanke's congressional testimony included the
following statements (emphasis added by me):
"Most [FOMC] participants viewed uncertainty
about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the
majority saw [at the June Fed meeting] the risks to growth as weighted to
the downside."
"Financial conditions--though much improved
since the depth of the financial crisis--have become less supportive of
economic growth in recent months."
"Many banks continue to have a large volume
of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight.
With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank
loans outstanding have continued to contract."
"After two years of job losses, private payrolls
expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this
year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially.
In all likelihood, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the
nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009."
The market dropped as Bernanke delivered his
testimony yesterday afternoon - and he was blamed for bringing it down. The Dow
closed more than 109 points lower. The Dow was then up more than 117 points
right after the open today and the Nasdaq gapped up over 26 points. The
mainstream media reported bullish news out of Europe and good corporate
earnings instantly turned market psychology around. One major news service
stated, "earnings Thursday showed that if the economy is slowing, many
companies are not being affected too much by the downturn". In other
words corporate profits have decoupled from the state of the economy. While
this may sound completely idiotic, it may not be as absurd as it initially
appears to be. If the federal government has spent $3 trillion of borrowed and
printed money in the last two years, that money has to have gone somewhere.
Either direct or indirect government purchases could be responsible for the
current batch of good corporate earnings, although sales to the economically
strong economies in East and South Asian are behind better performance for many
U.S. companies that do most of their business overseas. So the private sector
of the U.S. economy can be dead in the water, but corporate earnings can be
good because the government has become such a large component of the economy
(as is the case in socialist states). While corporate earnings are up and cash
levels are at record highs, the money doesn't seem to be flowing into the
general economy. Despite the supposedly great state of corporate America, there
are few announcements of major business expansions, nor is hiring picking up.
The usual evidence of a robust corporate sector is simply not there. Weekly
jobless claims in fact rose 37,000 to 464,000 this week. While 'seasonal
adjustments' were cited behind the big increase, weekly claims have been at
recessionary (if not depressionary) levels for two years now. Apparently there
are negative seasonal factors in winter, spring, summer, and fall. The
alternative explanation for today's big stock market rally, despite major
gloomy news, is the not so invisible hand of government manipulation. Bernanke
made it clear early on that he was more than willing to interfere in the
markets. When the Fed began its rate lowering campaign in August 2007, it did
so one hour before monthly futures expired and this created a huge rally that
wiped out the profits of the shorts (and gave a huge gift to the parties that
were on the other side of the trade - the big Wall Street banks perhaps?). More
recently, the Fed created a huge global liquidity facility on May 9th, after
the Flash Crash, and markets soared - at least for a while. Since there are
major elections in the fall, investors should assume that powers that be will
not want a crashing stock market and the announcement of a new recession. It
will be interesting to see how they try to cover this up. Disclosure: No positions
Why I'm Not Going to Be Long Stocks in the Near Future Oaktree's
Howard Marks writes one of the must read quarterly letters (embedded below).
This one is a bit lengthy, including many extended quotes from mainstream
sources, but there are a few tidbits that resonate soundly with me.First of
all, page 5, which describes the basic unsustainable characteristics common in
many global economies. More importantly, Marks's conclusion, on page 17, where
he notes:
bottom line: anyone who invests today in a pro-risk
fashion out of belief in the recovery must be confident that he'll be agile
enough to take profits before the long term realities set in.
I've used the
term "reality" many times to answer the question "why are
markets down today?" And Marks's quote perfectly describes why I'm not
going to be majorly long stocks any time in the near future: 1) I think reality
is much lower, and 2) I don't think I am agile enough to pass the grenade once
the pin is pulled.
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
WASHPOST
Ombudsman: Why Silence on Black Panther Story? (Washington
Post) ‘Thursday's Post reported about a growing controversy over the Justice
Department's decision to scale down a voter-intimidation case against members
of the New Black Panther Party. The story succinctly summarized the issues
but left many readers with a question: What took you so long? For months,
readers have contacted the ombudsman wondering why The Post hasn't been
covering the case. The calls increased recently after competitors such as the
New York Times and the Associated Press wrote stories. Fox News and right-wing
bloggers have been pumping the story. Liberal bloggers have countered, accusing
them of trying to manufacture a scandal. But The Post has been virtually
silent. The story has its origins on Election Day in 2008, when two members of
the New Black Panther Party stood in front of a Philadelphia polling place. YouTube
video of the men, now viewed nearly 1.5 million times, shows both wearing
paramilitary clothing. One carried a nightstick…’
Latino
KKK: You are too white to be American! ALIPAC | Tan Klan woman can scream
racist comments because the Obama administration and most of the major news
networks in America have her back.
Drudgereport:
GOLDMAN reveals where
bailout cash went -- overseas banks!
WIKILEAKS
NIGHTMARE: 10000S OF DOCS DUMPED
Oliver Stone:
'Jewish-Dominated Media' Prevents Hitler from Being Portrayed 'in Context'...
Top U.S. officer
warns Afghan war will get worse...
Bombs kill 5 US troops...
Taliban Claims It Captured
U.S. Sailor...
Taliban claims to have captured 2 American soldiers...
Strapped towns and cities giving away land -- to cut lawn mowing bills!
LA
suburb residents march over high city salaries...
VIDEO:
Wikileaks' founder explain logs...
NKOREA
WARNS OF NUKE RESPONSE TO NAVAL EXERCISES
Bank
failure tally passes 100 for year...
BUDGET DEFICIT TO REACH RECORD $1.47 TRILLION...
WH: A 'FISCAL SITUATION THAT REQUIRES
ATTENTION'...
Kerry
Docks New Yacht In RI To Duck MA Taxes...
PRICE
TO ATTEND OBAMA'S BIRTHDAY BASH: $30,000...
CHARLIE
RANGEL CHARGED WILL
FACE TRIAL
RACE
MESS: Obama Said Vilsack 'Jumped Gun' on Woman's Ouster...
Buchanan:
Obama team's panic over losing whites...
POLL: ANY REPUBLICAN WOULD
BEAT OBAMA IN '12...
Whites, Independents
Deserting Obama...
PACK
YOUR BAGS: CONGRESS CONFIDENCE AT 11%...
37 States Join GOOGLE Investigation...
BAILOUT REACHES $3.7
TRILLION...
Gov't watchdogs: Mortgage
program not working...
Bernanke: 'Unusually Uncertain'...
Unemployment rate high
through Obama term...
REVEALED: Secret Gold Coin
Tax Slipped Into Health Care Law...
PAPER:
The Tax Tsunami On The Horizon...
NYT THURS: Confidential documents provide detailed look at what
happened before night of oil explosion... Developing... NYT: WORKERS ON DOOMED RIG
VOICED CONCERN ON SAFETY...
Arab guilty of rape after
consensual sex with Jew... ‘An Israeli man of Arab origin has been convicted of rape after having
consensual sex with a woman who had believed him to be a fellow Jew. Sabbar
Kashur, 30, was sentenced to 18 months in prison on Monday after the court
ruled that he was guilty of rape by deception. According to the complaint filed
by the woman with the Jerusalem district court, the two met in downtown
Jerusalem in September 2008 where Kashur, an Arab from East Jerusalem,
introduced himself as a Jewish bachelor seeking a serious relationship. The two
then had consensual sex in a nearby building before Kashur left. When she later
found out that he was not Jewish but an Arab, she filed a criminal complaint
for rape and indecent assault …’
US
bank failures in 2010 surpass 100
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. bank failures this year have surpassed a bleak
milestone of 100 as regulators shut down banks in Georgia, Florida, South
Carolina, Kansas, Nevada and Minnesota. The six bank seizures announced Friday
bring to 102 the failures so far in 2010. The pace of bank closures this year
is well ahead of that of last year, which saw a total 140 bank shuttered amid
the recession and mounting loan defaults …
AP Business
Highlights ‘…
It had been thought that some banks needed to fail for the exercise to be
accepted as credible, and some analysts still argued that the results showed
the tests weren't rigorous enough -- the euro was trading flat on the day after
the release of the results at just below $1.29. Pay czar chose not to go after
$1.6B in bank pay …‘
YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]
‘ … Despite what would seem like a strong outcome to the bank examinations,
market participants were generally unfazed by the midday announcement. That's
largely because the stringency of the tests was unclear and the tests didn't
really do anything to address concerns about the pace of the economic recovery
following the testimony of Fed Chairman Bernanke earlier this week ...‘
Seven
banks fail Europe stress test (Reuters) LONDON/MADRID (Reuters) – Just seven European banks
failed a health check and were ordered to raise their capital by 3.5 billion
euros ($4.5 billion), much less than expected, confirming fears the continent's
long-awaited stress test was too soft…
Smoking
Guns of U.S. Treasury Monetization Jim
Willie |
A significant feature of fiat money systems is the privilege for the custodian
of the reserve currency to engage in regular practices of ham-fisted monetary
management.
Come on!
Suckers’ rally as in last bubble crash based on bad news and b*** s***. Oh they
say ‘better than the bad expected’ but it’s difficult to see how that’s at all
possible since this was all bad news. Even continuing claims for unemployment
were as I predicted softened temporarily by the ploy of delay in the
legislative extension of jobless benefits; and, how many times do they discount
the past second quarter earnings which were baked into their stale fraud cake
many months ago; then there’s also the higher oil price rally based on
over-printed, ever more worthless Weimar dollars. This is an especially great
opportunity to sell and take whatever profits / gains because there is truly
much worse to come and the nation’s defacto bankrupt in every way.
This is a global
depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up
move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has
been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with
great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell
into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam /
fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline,
economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted,
jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.
On the Disconnect Between the Market and the Economy Michael Shulman: ‘It has been an interesting 24 hours.
All within 24
hours. And with all this bearish data the market is up 2.5%, ostensibly because
of earnings and a bump in European exports. What is really going on is a
massive day trade and short covering rally based on a cheapening dollar as bond
prices rise and interest rates fall. Not to mention Bernanke said things are
weak, may get weaker, and that means more liquidity and cheaper capital to
borrow and trade. Markets can move on their own for a while -- but not forever.
The economy will catch up with corporate profits and bullish trading. The
longer reality is ignored or pushed aside for a daily trade, the harder stocks
will fall. Right now, we are on plan for a slow motion train wreck. The longer
it takes for the beginning of the derailment, the harder that train will crash.
Don’t take my word for it. Perhaps the greatest and certainly one of the most
respected technicians in the world, Louise Yamada, does not see many good things
happening. Just listen.
She sees the market giving us a sell signal based on failed rallies. Not to
mention she believes we are in a structural bear market similar to 1929-1942.
That bear market ended, sort of, with the Japanese bombing Pearl Harbor.
Weakening fundamentals, based on data and not wishful thinking, plus the best
technician in the world is seeing a correction. Sounds like the market is
increasingly separate from reality.’
(No recession helicopter ben) Bernanke Admits Major Policy Failures; Stocks Soar Darryl Montgomery What's wrong with this picture?
In his bi-annual testimony before Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke
admitted that after more than a year and a half of zero interest rates and $3
trillion in federal deficit spending since 2008, the best case
scenario for the U.S. economy is slow growth and high unemployment. The S&P
500 is up 2.5% so far this morning on this 'good' news. Bernanke's congressional testimony included the
following statements (emphasis added by me):
"Most [FOMC] participants viewed uncertainty
about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the
majority saw [at the June Fed meeting] the risks to growth as weighted to
the downside."
"Financial conditions--though much improved
since the depth of the financial crisis--have become less supportive of
economic growth in recent months."
"Many banks continue to have a large volume
of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight.
With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank
loans outstanding have continued to contract."
"After two years of job losses, private payrolls
expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this
year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially.
In all likelihood, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the
nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009."
The market dropped as Bernanke delivered his
testimony yesterday afternoon - and he was blamed for bringing it down. The Dow
closed more than 109 points lower. The Dow was then up more than 117 points
right after the open today and the Nasdaq gapped up over 26 points. The
mainstream media reported bullish news out of Europe and good corporate
earnings instantly turned market psychology around. One major news service
stated, "earnings Thursday showed that if the economy is slowing, many
companies are not being affected too much by the downturn". In other
words corporate profits have decoupled from the state of the economy. While
this may sound completely idiotic, it may not be as absurd as it initially
appears to be. If the federal government has spent $3 trillion of borrowed and
printed money in the last two years, that money has to have gone somewhere.
Either direct or indirect government purchases could be responsible for the
current batch of good corporate earnings, although sales to the economically
strong economies in East and South Asian are behind better performance for many
U.S. companies that do most of their business overseas. So the private sector
of the U.S. economy can be dead in the water, but corporate earnings can be
good because the government has become such a large component of the economy
(as is the case in socialist states). While corporate earnings are up and cash
levels are at record highs, the money doesn't seem to be flowing into the
general economy. Despite the supposedly great state of corporate America, there
are few announcements of major business expansions, nor is hiring picking up.
The usual evidence of a robust corporate sector is simply not there. Weekly
jobless claims in fact rose 37,000 to 464,000 this week. While 'seasonal
adjustments' were cited behind the big increase, weekly claims have been at
recessionary (if not depressionary) levels for two years now. Apparently there
are negative seasonal factors in winter, spring, summer, and fall. The
alternative explanation for today's big stock market rally, despite major
gloomy news, is the not so invisible hand of government manipulation. Bernanke
made it clear early on that he was more than willing to interfere in the
markets. When the Fed began its rate lowering campaign in August 2007, it did
so one hour before monthly futures expired and this created a huge rally that
wiped out the profits of the shorts (and gave a huge gift to the parties that
were on the other side of the trade - the big Wall Street banks perhaps?). More
recently, the Fed created a huge global liquidity facility on May 9th, after
the Flash Crash, and markets soared - at least for a while. Since there are
major elections in the fall, investors should assume that powers that be will
not want a crashing stock market and the announcement of a new recession. It
will be interesting to see how they try to cover this up. Disclosure: No positions
Why I'm Not Going to Be Long Stocks in the Near Future Oaktree's
Howard Marks writes one of the must read quarterly letters (embedded below).
This one is a bit lengthy, including many extended quotes from mainstream
sources, but there are a few tidbits that resonate soundly with me.First of
all, page 5, which describes the basic unsustainable characteristics common in
many global economies. More importantly, Marks's conclusion, on page 17, where
he notes:
bottom line: anyone who invests today in a pro-risk
fashion out of belief in the recovery must be confident that he'll be agile
enough to take profits before the long term realities set in.
I've used the
term "reality" many times to answer the question "why are
markets down today?" And Marks's quote perfectly describes why I'm not
going to be majorly long stocks any time in the near future: 1) I think reality
is much lower, and 2) I don't think I am agile enough to pass the grenade once
the pin is pulled.
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
WASHPOST Ombudsman: Why Silence
on Black Panther Story? (Washington
Post) ‘Thursday's Post reported about a growing controversy over the Justice
Department's decision to scale down a voter-intimidation case against members
of the New Black Panther Party. The story succinctly summarized the issues
but left many readers with a question: What took you so long? For months,
readers have contacted the ombudsman wondering why The Post hasn't been
covering the case. The calls increased recently after competitors such as the
New York Times and the Associated Press wrote stories. Fox News and right-wing
bloggers have been pumping the story. Liberal bloggers have countered, accusing
them of trying to manufacture a scandal. But The Post has been virtually
silent. The story has its origins on Election Day in 2008, when two members of
the New Black Panther Party stood in front of a Philadelphia polling place. YouTube
video of the men, now viewed nearly 1.5 million times, shows both wearing
paramilitary clothing. One carried a nightstick…’
Drudgereport: NKOREA WARNS OF NUKE RESPONSE
TO NAVAL EXERCISES
Bank failure tally passes 100
for year...
BUDGET DEFICIT TO
REACH RECORD $1.47 TRILLION...
WH: A
'FISCAL SITUATION THAT REQUIRES ATTENTION'...
Kerry Docks New Yacht In RI
To Duck MA Taxes...
PRICE TO ATTEND OBAMA'S
BIRTHDAY BASH: $30,000...
CHARLIE RANGEL CHARGED WILL FACE TRIAL
RACE MESS: Obama Said Vilsack
'Jumped Gun' on Woman's Ouster...
Buchanan: Obama team's panic
over losing whites...
POLL: ANY REPUBLICAN
WOULD BEAT OBAMA IN '12...
Whites,
Independents Deserting Obama...
PACK YOUR BAGS: CONGRESS
CONFIDENCE AT 11%...
37
States Join GOOGLE Investigation...
BAILOUT
REACHES $3.7 TRILLION...
Gov't
watchdogs: Mortgage program not working...
Bernanke: 'Unusually Uncertain'...
Unemployment
rate high through Obama term...
REVEALED:
Secret Gold Coin Tax Slipped Into Health Care Law...
PAPER: The Tax Tsunami On The
Horizon...
NYT THURS: Confidential documents provide detailed look
at what happened before night of oil explosion... Developing... NYT: WORKERS ON DOOMED RIG
VOICED CONCERN ON SAFETY...
DRUDGEREPORT:
Fed Wins More Power in
Overhaul...
Shelby: Repeal It...
Economy may not recover 'for
five or six years'...
REGULATION CELEBRATION!
SUMMER SOUR: Consumer Sentiment Sinks To Lowest Level in 11
Months...
Army suicides hit record
number in June...
Specter's
YES Kagan vote; Obama job offer...
GIFT
TO THE DEMS: BUSH TO RELEASE BOOK FOR ELECTION; LEAKS BEGIN IN OCTOBER...
SENATE
PA$$ES SWEEPING BANK BILL...
Biggest
expansion of government power over banking, markets since Depression...
REVEALED:
Senate VIP Loans Mount...
JP
MORGANCHASE reports 77% rise in profit...
...Banks
repossess homes at record pace; likely to top 1 million in 2010...
Come on!
Suckers’ rally as in last bubble crash based on bad news and b*** s***. Oh they
say ‘better than the bad expected’ but it’s difficult to see how that’s at all
possible since this was all bad news. Even continuing claims for unemployment
were as I predicted softened temporarily by the ploy of delay in the
legislative extension of jobless benefits; and, how many times do they discount
the past second quarter earnings which were baked into their stale
fraud cake many months ago; then there’s also the higher oil price rally based
on over-printed, ever more worthless Weimar dollars. This is an especially
great opportunity to sell and take whatever profits / gains because there is
truly much worse to come and the nation’s defacto bankrupt in every way.
This is a global
depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up
move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has
been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with
great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell
into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam /
fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline,
economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted,
jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.
On the Disconnect Between the Market and the Economy Michael Shulman: ‘It has been an interesting 24 hours.
All within 24
hours. And with all this bearish data the market is up 2.5%, ostensibly because
of earnings and a bump in European exports. What is really going on is a
massive day trade and short covering rally based on a cheapening dollar as bond
prices rise and interest rates fall. Not to mention Bernanke said things are
weak, may get weaker, and that means more liquidity and cheaper capital to
borrow and trade. Markets can move on their own for a while -- but not forever.
The economy will catch up with corporate profits and bullish trading. The
longer reality is ignored or pushed aside for a daily trade, the harder stocks
will fall. Right now, we are on plan for a slow motion train wreck. The longer
it takes for the beginning of the derailment, the harder that train will crash.
Don’t take my word for it. Perhaps the greatest and certainly one of the most
respected technicians in the world, Louise Yamada, does not see many good
things happening. Just listen. She sees
the market giving us a sell signal based on failed rallies. Not to mention she
believes we are in a structural bear market similar to 1929-1942. That bear
market ended, sort of, with the Japanese bombing Pearl Harbor. Weakening
fundamentals, based on data and not wishful thinking, plus the best technician
in the world is seeing a correction. Sounds like the market is increasingly
separate from reality.’
(No recession helicopter ben) Bernanke Admits Major Policy Failures; Stocks Soar Darryl Montgomery What's wrong with this picture?
In his bi-annual testimony before Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke
admitted that after more than a year and a half of zero interest rates and $3
trillion in federal deficit spending since 2008, the best case
scenario for the U.S. economy is slow growth and high unemployment. The S&P
500 is up 2.5% so far this morning on this 'good' news. Bernanke's congressional testimony included the
following statements (emphasis added by me):
"Most [FOMC] participants viewed uncertainty
about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the
majority saw [at the June Fed meeting] the risks to growth as weighted to
the downside."
"Financial conditions--though much improved
since the depth of the financial crisis--have become less supportive of
economic growth in recent months."
"Many banks continue to have a large volume
of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight.
With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank
loans outstanding have continued to contract."
"After two years of job losses, private payrolls
expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this
year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially.
In all likelihood, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the
nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009."
The market dropped as Bernanke delivered his
testimony yesterday afternoon - and he was blamed for bringing it down. The Dow
closed more than 109 points lower. The Dow was then up more than 117 points
right after the open today and the Nasdaq gapped up over 26 points. The
mainstream media reported bullish news out of Europe and good corporate
earnings instantly turned market psychology around. One major news service
stated, "earnings Thursday showed that if the economy is slowing, many
companies are not being affected too much by the downturn". In other
words corporate profits have decoupled from the state of the economy. While
this may sound completely idiotic, it may not be as absurd as it initially
appears to be. If the federal government has spent $3 trillion of borrowed and
printed money in the last two years, that money has to have gone somewhere.
Either direct or indirect government purchases could be responsible for the
current batch of good corporate earnings, although sales to the economically
strong economies in East and South Asian are behind better performance for many
U.S. companies that do most of their business overseas. So the private sector
of the U.S. economy can be dead in the water, but corporate earnings can be
good because the government has become such a large component of the economy
(as is the case in socialist states). While corporate earnings are up and cash
levels are at record highs, the money doesn't seem to be flowing into the
general economy. Despite the supposedly great state of corporate America, there
are few announcements of major business expansions, nor is hiring picking up.
The usual evidence of a robust corporate sector is simply not there. Weekly
jobless claims in fact rose 37,000 to 464,000 this week. While 'seasonal
adjustments' were cited behind the big increase, weekly claims have been at
recessionary (if not depressionary) levels for two years now. Apparently there
are negative seasonal factors in winter, spring, summer, and fall. The
alternative explanation for today's big stock market rally, despite major
gloomy news, is the not so invisible hand of government manipulation. Bernanke
made it clear early on that he was more than willing to interfere in the markets.
When the Fed began its rate lowering campaign in August 2007, it did so one
hour before monthly futures expired and this created a huge rally that wiped
out the profits of the shorts (and gave a huge gift to the parties that were on
the other side of the trade - the big Wall Street banks perhaps?). More
recently, the Fed created a huge global liquidity facility on May 9th, after
the Flash Crash, and markets soared - at least for a while. Since there are
major elections in the fall, investors should assume that powers that be will
not want a crashing stock market and the announcement of a new recession. It
will be interesting to see how they try to cover this up. Disclosure: No positions
YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]:’ …
Keeping a focus on the economy, the latest initial jobless claims count climbed
37,000 week-over-week to 464,000, which is more than the 445,000 initial claims
that had been widely expected. Continuing claims dropped 223,000 week-over-week
to just below 4.49 million, but that is likely due to the expiration of jobless
benefits. To help support unemployed workers, the House approved today a bill
to extend jobless benefits. As for
housing, existing home sales for June fell 5.1% month-over-month to an
annualized rate of 5.37 million units. That is a better rate than the 5.09
million units that had been widely expected. News that total months supply
climbed to 8.9 from 8.3 was disregarded. Leading indicators for June got little
attention. They reportedly slipped 0.2%, which is slightly less severe than the
0.4% decline that had been widely expected…’
Why I'm Not Going to Be Long Stocks in the Near Future Oaktree's
Howard Marks writes one of the must read quarterly letters (embedded below).
This one is a bit lengthy, including many extended quotes from mainstream
sources, but there are a few tidbits that resonate soundly with me.First of
all, page 5, which describes the basic unsustainable characteristics common in
many global economies. More importantly, Marks's conclusion, on page 17, where
he notes:
bottom line: anyone who invests today in a pro-risk
fashion out of belief in the recovery must be confident that he'll be agile
enough to take profits before the long term realities set in.
I've used the
term "reality" many times to answer the question "why are
markets down today?" And Marks's quote perfectly describes why I'm not
going to be majorly long stocks any time in the near future: 1) I think reality
is much lower, and 2) I don't think I am agile enough to pass the grenade once
the pin is pulled.
S&P 500 Turns Back at the 50-Day ... Again For the fourth time since the "flash crash"
in early May, the S&P 500 has tried and failed to rally significantly above
its 50-day moving average. First, it was debt concerns out of Europe (5/13).
Then it was the negative reversal following China's statement to let the yuan
appreciate (6/21). Then it was weak earnings reports from the Financials and a
weak Michigan Confidence report (7/16). Today, it was Bernanke's testimony that
preceded the sell-off …
Stocks Continue to React Negatively to Earnings Reports Last earnings season, stocks reacted very poorly to earnings reports,
averaging a one-day decline of 0.7%. This was tied with Q2 '07 and Q3 '08 for
the worst reading since at least 2002. So far this season, things haven't
gotten much better. The average stock that has released earnings has gone down
0.4% on its report day (the next day if the company reports after the close) …
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Absent from the
following two headlines is the fact of Google’s NSA connection:
WASHPOST Ombudsman: Why
Silence on Black Panther Story? (Washington Post) ‘Thursday's Post reported about a growing
controversy over the Justice
Department's decision to scale down a voter-intimidation case against members
of the New Black Panther Party. The story succinctly summarized the issues
but left many readers with a question: What took you so long? For months,
readers have contacted the ombudsman wondering why The Post hasn't been
covering the case. The calls increased recently after competitors such as the
New York Times and the Associated Press wrote stories. Fox News and right-wing
bloggers have been pumping the story. Liberal bloggers have countered, accusing
them of trying to manufacture a scandal. But The Post has been virtually
silent. The story has its origins on Election Day in 2008, when two members of
the New Black Panther Party stood in front of a Philadelphia polling place. YouTube
video of the men, now viewed nearly 1.5 million times, shows both wearing
paramilitary clothing. One carried a nightstick…’
Drudgereport: CHARLIE RANGEL CHARGED WILL FACE TRIAL
RACE MESS: Obama Said Vilsack
'Jumped Gun' on Woman's Ouster...
Buchanan: Obama team's panic
over losing whites...
POLL: ANY REPUBLICAN
WOULD BEAT OBAMA IN '12...
Whites,
Independents Deserting Obama...
PACK YOUR BAGS: CONGRESS
CONFIDENCE AT 11%...
37
States Join GOOGLE Investigation...
BAILOUT
REACHES $3.7 TRILLION...
Gov't
watchdogs: Mortgage program not working...
Bernanke: 'Unusually Uncertain'...
Unemployment
rate high through Obama term...
REVEALED:
Secret Gold Coin Tax Slipped Into Health Care Law...
PAPER: The Tax Tsunami On The
Horizon...
NYT THURS: Confidential documents provide detailed look
at what happened before night of oil explosion... Developing... NYT: WORKERS ON DOOMED RIG
VOICED CONCERN ON SAFETY...
S&P 500 Turns Back at the 50-Day ... Again For the fourth time since the "flash crash"
in early May, the S&P 500 has tried and failed to rally significantly above
its 50-day moving average. First, it was debt concerns out of Europe (5/13).
Then it was the negative reversal following China's statement to let the yuan
appreciate (6/21). Then it was weak earnings reports from the Financials and a
weak Michigan Confidence report (7/16). Today, it was Bernanke's testimony that
preceded the sell-off …
Stocks Continue to React Negatively to Earnings Reports Last earnings season, stocks reacted very poorly to earnings reports,
averaging a one-day decline of 0.7%. This was tied with Q2 '07 and Q3 '08 for
the worst reading since at least 2002. So far this season, things haven't
gotten much better. The average stock that has released earnings has gone down
0.4% on its report day (the next day if the company reports after the close) …
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Absent from the
following two headlines is the fact of Google’s NSA connection:
WASHPOST
Ombudsman: Why Silence on Black Panther Story? (Washington Post) ‘Thursday's Post reported about a growing
controversy over the Justice
Department's decision to scale down a voter-intimidation case against members
of the New Black Panther Party. The story succinctly summarized the issues
but left many readers with a question: What took you so long? For months,
readers have contacted the ombudsman wondering why The Post hasn't been
covering the case. The calls increased recently after competitors such as the
New York Times and the Associated Press wrote stories. Fox News and right-wing
bloggers have been pumping the story. Liberal bloggers have countered, accusing
them of trying to manufacture a scandal. But The Post has been virtually
silent. The story has its origins on Election Day in 2008, when two members of
the New Black Panther Party stood in front of a Philadelphia polling place. YouTube
video of the men, now viewed nearly 1.5 million times, shows both wearing
paramilitary clothing. One carried a nightstick…’
Drudgereport: POLL:
ANY REPUBLICAN WOULD BEAT OBAMA IN '12...
Whites,
Independents Deserting Obama...
37
States Join GOOGLE Investigation...
BAILOUT
REACHES $3.7 TRILLION...
Gov't
watchdogs: Mortgage program not working...
Bernanke: 'Unusually Uncertain'...
Unemployment
rate high through Obama term...
REVEALED:
Secret Gold Coin Tax Slipped Into Health Care Law...
NYT THURS: Confidential documents provide detailed look
at what happened before night of oil explosion... Developing...
1929 Peak Versus 2000 Peak? ‘In a post yesterday, we questioned whether the Dow
was really in the midst of repeating a pattern it went through in the early
part of the Great Depression. The post got a few comments suggesting that we
make a different comparison:
Equities End at Day's Highs Midnight Trader 4:37 PM, Jul 20, 2010 --
GLOBAL
SENTIMENT
UPSIDE
MOVERS
(+) NOK up as WSJ report says CEO search under way.
(+) WFT muscles into higher volume ranks after latest positive
earnings report.
(+) PEP just positive after earnings.
(+) HOG profit jumps vs year-ago quarter.
(+) GS declines then recovers as revenue misses, earnings beat.
DOWNSIDE MOVERS
(-) IBM down after disappointing late-Monday earnings.
(-) TXN down after disappointing evening earnings.
(-) WHR loses early post-earnings gain that followed convincing beat.
(-) ZION continues evening decline after loss misses.
(-) JNJ down after earnings.
MARKET DIRECTION
Stock indexes finish in the upper end of the session's range after falling
sharply at the day's start.
A turnaround for Goldman Sachs (GS),
which issued mixed earnings early Tuesday, and gains in energy and materials
shares were behind the bounce. Disappointing earnings and another sign the
housing recovery may be fizzling weighed on stocks earlier.
On the economic front, construction on new housing fell sharply after a federal
tax credit for buyers expired. After a 15% drop in May, housing starts fell
another 5% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 549,000, the lowest
level in eight months, according to Commerce Department data. The drop was
worse than the 3% decline to 575,000 expected by economists surveyed by
MarketWatch.
Earnings news continued to dominate headlines.
Goldman Sachs (GS)
said second-quarter profit slumped 82%, falling short of analysts' estimates on
a slide in trading revenue. The report came five days after the investment bank
settled civil fraud allegations with U.S. regulators. Goldman Sachs said Q2 net
revenues were $8.84 billion, below the Thomson Reuters mean for $8.93806
billion. EPS were $2.75, less items, better than forecasts for $2.08.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
lowered its full-year earnings forecast because of a series of over-the-counter
medicine recalls. The drugmaker reported Q2 EPS, excluding items, of $1.21 per
share, in line with the analyst mean of $1.21 per share on Thomson Reuters.
Total sales were $15.3 billion, shy of the Street view of $15.6 billion. The
company updated its earnings guidance for full-year 2010 to $4.65 - $4.75 per
share, which excludes the impact of special items. The Street is at $4.80 per
share.
Tupperware Brands (TUP)
cut back its earnings forecast for this year due to weaker foreign exchange
rates. The plastic container maker anticipates earnings for 2010 to be 17 cents
lower from its projection in April, at $3.51 to $3.61 a share.
UAL Corp. (UAUA), parent of United Airlines, posted a
profit that exceeded analysts' estimates on higher fares and fuller airplanes.
UAL said it earned $1.95 per share in Q2, more than the Thomson Reuters mean
for $1.75. Operating sales were $5.16 billion, up 28.4% from a year ago.
Crude-oil for August delivery ended up
0.8%, or $0.68, to $77.58 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
In other energy futures, heating oil rose 0.9%, or $0.17, to $2.03 a gallon
while natural gas rose 1.3%, or $0.06, to $4.56 per million British thermal
units.
Meanwhile, gold futures rose as investors saw the precious metal, which has
declined in recent weeks, as a bargain.
Gold for August delivery rose $9.80, or 0.8%, to $1,191.70 an ounce. In other
metal futures, silver rose $0.15 to $17.69 a troy ounce while copper rose $0.06
to $3 a pound.
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Absent from the following two headlines is the fact of
Google’s NSA connection:
WASHPOST
Ombudsman: Why Silence on Black Panther Story? (Washington
Post) ‘Thursday's Post reported about a growing controversy over the Justice
Department's decision to scale down a voter-intimidation case against members
of the New Black Panther Party. The story succinctly summarized the issues
but left many readers with a question: What took you so long? For months,
readers have contacted the ombudsman wondering why The Post hasn't been
covering the case. The calls increased recently after competitors such as the
New York Times and the Associated Press wrote stories. Fox News and right-wing
bloggers have been pumping the story. Liberal bloggers have countered, accusing
them of trying to manufacture a scandal. But The Post has been virtually
silent. The story has its origins on Election Day in 2008, when two members of
the New Black Panther Party stood in front of a Philadelphia polling place. YouTube
video of the men, now viewed nearly 1.5 million times, shows both wearing
paramilitary clothing. One carried a nightstick…’
Latino
KKK: You are too white to be American! ALIPAC | Tan Klan woman can scream racist comments because
the Obama administration and most of the major news networks in America have
her back.
DRUDGEREPORT: Arab guilty of rape after
consensual sex with Jew... ‘An Israeli man of Arab origin has been convicted of rape after having
consensual sex with a woman who had believed him to be a fellow Jew. Sabbar
Kashur, 30, was sentenced to 18 months in prison on Monday after the court
ruled that he was guilty of rape by deception. According to the complaint filed
by the woman with the Jerusalem district court, the two met in downtown
Jerusalem in September 2008 where Kashur, an Arab from East Jerusalem,
introduced himself as a Jewish bachelor seeking a serious relationship. The two
then had consensual sex in a nearby building before Kashur left. When she later
found out that he was not Jewish but an Arab, she filed a criminal complaint
for rape and indecent assault …’
Examining the Chances of a Market
Crash Before the Mid-Term Elections Smit: ‘ If history is any guide, the U.S. stock
market will continue falling right into the November elections, decimating any
Democratic argument that their party has energized the economy. Given this
potential for an electoral drubbing, we can expect massive intervention to prop
up the market. Will the stock market tank heading into the 2010 mid-term
election? History suggests yes, but my contrarian sense has some doubts.
Correspondent/analyst B.C. recently posted a chart on his excellent weblog Imperial
Economics which shows that historically, stocks decline in the
second year of presidential terms: (chart) …A second chart maps the
Nikkei stock index from its 1989 bubble top, the Great Depression-era S&P
500, the NASDAQ dot-com bubble and pop, and the Shanghai stock index's 2007
peak and decline. Once again, this chart suggests that the 2010 election will
occur in a stock market trough: (chart) … The black line is the
NASDAQ, which peaked in early 2000 (around month 115) and hit bottom in March
2009 about nine years later (around month 225). It topped out in late April
2010 and has been sliding since. If it tracks the other historical indices
shown, it will decline for another 36 months (mid-2013).I have annotated the
following chart of the great Bear Market of 1966-1982 to show the presidential
elections and the mid-term elections. Rather strikingly, the stock market
reached peaks around each presidential election and fell to lows around each
mid-term election: (chart) … Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is tanking.
B.C. kindly offered up this chart of the ECRI's WLI growth rate, which is
dropping to recession levels. (chart) … This is the backdrop for either a mini-crash or a full-blown
crash of the stock market--something which occurred with alarming regularity in
the last Great Bear Market, and even earlier Bear markets, around mid-term
elections. On the other hand, the Obama Administration and the Democratic
Congress have faithfully carried Wall Street and the "too big to
fail" money-center banks' water since taking office in 2009. Treasury
Secretary Geithner, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, Wall Street and the
big banks have gotten everything they wanted, with only modest window-dressing
of "reforms" for public consumption. While the Democratic lackeys did
the heavy work, the Republican toadies were content to run interference for the
bankers, proclaiming their resistance to any reform which would place a burden
on business as usual. (Not to Repub obstructors: exactly what were the
consequences to the U.S. economy of the financial deregulation you lauded so
warmly over the past decade? It crashed.)
The
Sovereign Debt Supercycle Will Keep Getting Worse Until Something Breaks I have been writing about The End Game for
some time now. And writing a book of the same title. Consequently, I have been
thinking a lot about how the credit crisis evolved into the sovereign debt
crisis, and how it all ends.
Market
Going Down With the Ship? Montgomery: ‘This morning the Baltic Dry Index, a
measure of freight rates for international shipping, was at 1700. It hasn't
been at this level since April 2009, only four months after its Credit Crisis
low and only one month after the stock market was at its bottom. Bloomberg
News noted a week ago that the index had dropped continuously for the longest
period in nine years. Yes, the current drop in the preceding seven weeks (from
a high of 4209 in late May) has been bigger than anything seen during the
Credit Crisis. The last drop of this magnitude was in August 2001 in the middle
of that year's recession. Lack of shipping activity from China, the engine for
global economic activity, was cited as the main cause for the falling index.
Charter rates for all types of ships tracked in the index are falling. Prices
for dry bulk shipping, which doesn't include energy commodities, tend to be
very sensitive to economic activity. A sharp drop in rates indicates a
significant drop in global trade. Based on historical charts it looks like the
Baltic Index can lead, be coincident or lag movements in economic data and the
stock market. The index seems to be most closely correlated with prices of
industrial commodities and the industrial sector of the global economy. While
this is not the largest component of the U.S. economy (the service sector is
four times larger), it is the key sector in developing economies. It was
manufacturing though that had the biggest rebound in the U.S. since last year.
The service sector has remained lackluster. The stock market will likely be
following the Baltic Index down, although perhaps not with such a precipitous
decline. The Index has dropped almost 60% since late May. With the exception of
the small cap Russell 2000, none of the major stock indices have had even a 20%
drop - at least not yet. Disclosure: No positions.’
Time to Focus on Protecting Assets Nussbaum: ‘A popular topic of conversation
nowadays is whether or not there will be a double dip recession. Supporting the
"no" camp is the rarity of such a thing, pointing out that it has
only happened one time in modern history in the early 1980s (I read one thing
that said despite what people say, that double dip was recorded as two separate
recessions). Supporting the "yes" camp is the employment situation
and lately Edward Harrison has been very interested in the ECRI Weekly Leading
Index which, if I am reading him correctly, are almost saying double
dip. Recessions are typically very bad for equity markets, averaging a 40%
decline if memory serves. I've been asked a couple of times in different
contexts whether I thought there would be a double dip but really I'm not sure
this is the best question. Whether there is technically a double dip or not we
have problems with indebtedness, jobs, the banks are still in trouble (I've
never thought they were fundamentally sound since this all started) and all the
other things you know about and of course this is the "worst financial crisis
in 80 years." Double dip or not, these are formidable obstacles that US
equities need to overcome and thinking it will take more than two years (my
opinion) is quite reasonable. I would again point out that there are quite a
few foreign markets that simply do not have these obstacles in front of them.
I've been talking about Chile almost since the start of my site. Since the peak
of the US market in October 2007 the S&P 500 is down 30% while the IPSA is
up 25%. It went down plenty, dropping almost in lockstep with the S&P 500
for about a year to a 30% decline but has been mostly working higher since. If
this has been a time to focus on protecting assets, and I believe it has, then
certainly one way to protect assets would be to invest in countries with relatively
little fundamental connection to the US's obstacles. The other day I made a
comment about avoidance as a valid protection strategy so here the point is
avoiding a systemically vulnerable economy. I'm glad to let other people devote
time to assess the reality of double dip or any other economic event. There are
times to let assets grow and a time to protect assets and this continues to be
a time to favor protection.’
Fundamental
and Technical Indicators Say This Market Should Turn Downward
22
Statistics That Prove The Middle Class Is Being Systematically Wiped Out Of
Existence In America The 22
statistics that you are about to read prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that the
middle class is being systematically wiped out of existence in America.
Congress
Passes Bankster Consolidation Bill Kurt
Nimmo | Financial reform is a three-card Monte scam, a confidence
game, a sleight of hand.
Wall
Street Is Laundering Drug Money And Getting Away With It Zach
Carter | Wachovia was moving money behind literally tons of cocaine
from violent drug cartels. It wasn’t an accident.
They
still know how to count. When you defraud for many billions, paying $550
million is chump change. Goldman
to pay $550M to settle civil fraud charges (AP) - Goldman
Sachs & Co. has agreed to pay $550 million to settle civil fraud charges
that accused the Wall Street giant of misleading buyers of mortgage-related
investments. Late stock rally
ahead of Goldman settlement news And the beat goes on!
Goldman Sachs beats the SEC NEW YORK (MarketWatch) – ‘Can
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. wheel and deal or what? The bank and brokerage's
settlement with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday over the
ill-fated Abacus deal may be its best trade ever. At $550 million, it's not terribly expensive. Goldman / quotes / Comstock / 13*!gs / quotes / nls /gs (GS 152.19, +6.97, +4.80%) hasn't agreed to restrict its practices
in any meaningful way. And poof! The firm can go back to work with its biggest
liability paid. Investors are ecstatic, Goldman shares rocketed 5.5% in
after-hours trading. No wonder Goldman called it "the right outcome for
our firm shareholders and clients." See
full story on the SEC settlement. For the regulators, the settlement is
more than just anticlimactic. Having bet all of its chips on reversing
embarrassing episodes such as the Bernie Madoff fiasco in an aggressive case
against Wall Street, the SEC whiffed.
Sure, the settlement is the biggest in the agency's history. Yes, the
SEC was able to squeeze Goldman on the settlement language and admit it was a
"mistake" not to have disclosed Paulson & Co.'s role in picking
the ill-fated securities. But come on. Goldman's net income last year was $12.1
billion. It could be even higher this year, given the robust first quarter
Goldman already has had. The settlement amounts to less than 5% of profits.
Maybe Goldman Sachs will even be able to write it off …’ Goldman pays $550 mln to settle CDO suit with SEC
Absent from the
following two headlines is the fact of Google’s NSA connection:
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
WASHPOST
Ombudsman: Why Silence on Black Panther Story? (Washington
Post) ‘Thursday's Post reported about a growing controversy over the Justice
Department's decision to scale down a voter-intimidation case against members
of the New Black Panther Party. The story succinctly summarized the issues
but left many readers with a question: What took you so long? For months,
readers have contacted the ombudsman wondering why The Post hasn't been
covering the case. The calls increased recently after competitors such as the
New York Times and the Associated Press wrote stories. Fox News and right-wing
bloggers have been pumping the story. Liberal bloggers have countered, accusing
them of trying to manufacture a scandal. But The Post has been virtually
silent. The story has its origins on Election Day in 2008, when two members of
the New Black Panther Party stood in front of a Philadelphia polling place. YouTube
video of the men, now viewed nearly 1.5 million times, shows both wearing
paramilitary clothing. One carried a nightstick…’
DRUDGEREPORT: WASHPOST TAKES ON THE SPOOKS:
Hidden world, growing beyond control...
854,000 people have
top-secret security clearance...
IRELAND DOWNGRADED
Americans Caught in Mexico --
Allege Abuse...
'Hezbollah-like' car bomb
kills 4 on Mexican border...
Illegal immigrant deaths in
Arizona desert soaring...
Seep found near 'capped' well...
GALLUP:
Kagan set for confirmation with lowest support since polling began...
Brzezinski
Senses 'Malaise' With Obama...
Strapped
Cities Rent Police, Janitors...
5
NATO SOLDIERS KILLED BY HOMEMADE BOMBS IN AFGHANISTAN...
PAPER:
All Brit Troops out by 2014 …Ho Hum… Sounds like a plan .. We’ve heard before
...
Army
suicides hit record number in June...
WASHPOST
Ombudsman: Why Silence on Black Panther Story?
ECONOMIC
/ FINANCIAL
Still great opportunity to
sell / take profits since much worse, also called reality beyond the b*** s***,
to come.
‘This is
a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The
past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This
has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with
great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell
into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam /
fraud as in prior crashes.’
EQUITIES TUMBLE, PRESSURED BY
EARNINGS, CONSUMER SENTIMENT Midnight Trader 4:04 PM, Jul 16, 2010 --
GLOBAL
SENTIMENT
DOWNSIDE
MOVERS
(-) C beats with Q2 EPS, meets with revenue.
(-) BAC results below year-ago levels, EPS does beat Street.
(-) GOOG continues evening decline after mixed results.
(-) VVUS sees continued sharp decline in response to FDA panel ruling
against diet drug.
(-) GE down but off worst levels; beat with Q2 results.
(-) BP says leaking well is capped but officials cautious.
(-) MAT misses with earnings.
UPSIDE MOVERS
(+) GS settles with SEC over CDO charges.
(+) ARNA gains on negative ruling for rival VVUS diet drug.
MARKET DIRECTION
A batch of mixed earnings reports from the likes of GE (GE), Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C) and Google (GOOG) combined with a deeper-than-expected
drop in consumer sentiment to drive stocks lower on Friday. The banks were the
prime driver behind the earnings-driven declines as investors worried over
lower trading revenue at the financial firms. On the consumer sentiment side,
consumers were much more pessimistic in July as the University of Michigan
sentiment index slumped to 66.5 from 76. Expectations were for a reading of
74.3. The consumer-price index also dropped to a seasonally adjusted 0.1%, the
third straight monthly decline, according to Labor Department report this
morning, fueling concerns about deflation. But the more closely followed core
rate rose 0.2%. It excludes volatile food and energy prices and is seen as a
better gauge of inflation. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had predicted a
flat reading in overall consumer prices and a 0.1% increase in the core rate.
Earnings season kicks into high gear next week as a hefty crop of top names
report quarterly financials. On Monday, IBM (IBM) and Texas Instruments (TXN) are due with numbers, followed by Apple (AAPL), Goldman Sachs (GS), Harley-Davidson (HOG) and Yahoo (YHOO) on Tuesday. eBay (EBAY), Morgan Stanley (MS), Netflix (NFLX), Qualcomm (QCOM) and Starbucks (SBUX) are slated to post financials on
Wednesday. On Thursday, traders will see quarterly results from Amazon.com (AMZN), Caterpillar (CAT), Microsoft (MSFT) and UPS (UPS), followed by McDonald's (MCD) and Verizon (VZ) on Friday. On the economic front, data
flow is light next week, with building permits and housing starts due for
release Tuesday, followed by crude inventories on Wednesday. Initial claims,
existing home sales and leading indicators will be distributed on Thursday.
Elsewhere in today's market, BP Plc (BP) said its damaged Gulf
of Mexico well, which has gushed crude since April had showed no signs of oil
leaks since the company tightened a new cap into place, The New York Times reported.
A BP executive said that pressure had built up inside the well as BP engineers
had predicted and hoped it would. Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) shares declined even as both banks posted
better-than-expected results on lower credit losses after investors saw
challenges for the two banks to raise revenue in a tough economy, Reuters
reports. Vivus Inc. (VVUS) was
hammered lower after an FDA panel voted against its diet pill, Qnexa, due to
concerns about serious side effects. Goldman Sachs (GS) bucked the broader market and the banking
sector, up 2% on the heels of its deal with the Securities and Exchange
Commission to settle a civil fraud suit for $550 million. Crude-oil for August
delivery ended down 0.8%, or $0.61, to $76.01 a barrel on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. In other energy futures, heating oil fell 0.41%, or $0.05,
to $2.01 a gallon while natural gas fell 1.1%, or $0.05, to $4.53 per million
British thermal units. Meanwhile, gold futures fell to their lowest level since
May. Gold for August delivery fell $20.10, or 1.7%, to $1,188.20 an ounce. In
other metal futures, silver fell $0.51, or 2.8%, to $17.85 a troy ounce while
copper fell 3% to $2.93 a pound.
22
Statistics That Prove The Middle Class Is Being Systematically Wiped Out Of
Existence In America The 22
statistics that you are about to read prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that the
middle class is being systematically wiped out of existence in America.
Congress
Passes Bankster Consolidation Bill Kurt Nimmo | Financial reform is a
three-card Monte scam, a confidence game, a sleight of hand.
Wall
Street Is Laundering Drug Money And Getting Away With It Zach Carter | Wachovia was moving money behind literally tons of
cocaine from violent drug cartels. It wasn’t an accident.
They
still know how to count. When you defraud for many billions, paying $550
million is chump change. Goldman
to pay $550M to settle civil fraud charges (AP) - Goldman
Sachs & Co. has agreed to pay $550 million to settle civil fraud charges that
accused the Wall Street giant of misleading buyers of mortgage-related
investments. Late stock rally
ahead of Goldman settlement news And the beat goes on!
Goldman Sachs beats the SEC NEW YORK (MarketWatch) – ‘Can
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. wheel and deal or what? The bank and brokerage's settlement
with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday over the ill-fated
Abacus deal may be its best trade ever.
At $550 million, it's not terribly expensive. Goldman / quotes / Comstock / 13*!gs / quotes / nls /gs (GS 152.19, +6.97, +4.80%) hasn't agreed to restrict its practices
in any meaningful way. And poof! The firm can go back to work with its biggest
liability paid. Investors are ecstatic, Goldman shares rocketed 5.5% in
after-hours trading. No wonder Goldman called it "the right outcome for
our firm shareholders and clients." See
full story on the SEC settlement. For the regulators, the settlement is
more than just anticlimactic. Having bet all of its chips on reversing
embarrassing episodes such as the Bernie Madoff fiasco in an aggressive case
against Wall Street, the SEC whiffed.
Sure, the settlement is the biggest in the agency's history. Yes, the
SEC was able to squeeze Goldman on the settlement language and admit it was a
"mistake" not to have disclosed Paulson & Co.'s role in picking
the ill-fated securities. But come on. Goldman's net income last year was $12.1
billion. It could be even higher this year, given the robust first quarter
Goldman already has had. The settlement amounts to less than 5% of profits.
Maybe Goldman Sachs will even be able to write it off …’ Goldman pays $550 mln to settle CDO suit with SEC
ECONOMIC
/ FINANCIAL
‘This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global
depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular
bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the
prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders
commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the
hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes.’
LATE MOVE LANDS STOCKS MOSTLY HIGHER, DOW STREAK ENDS
UPSIDE
MOVERS
(+)
GSK gains after WSJ report says FDA panel recommends continued marketing of
diabetes drug Avandia.
(+)
NTY going private, sold to Carlyle Group for $55 per share.
(+)
SKH agrees to stay all legal proceedings.
(+)
SNSS gets European patent for Voreloxin with Cytarabine.
(+)
NVS gains after earnings.
DOWNSIDE
MOVERS
(-)
AMZN downgraded.
(-)
MFE downgraded.
(-)
BMTI prices shares.
(-)
JPM reports jump in profit.
MARKET
DIRECTION
Stock
averages tried for a full late-day recovery and briefly reclaimed positive
ground inside the final minutes. Eventually, averages end narrowly mixed, well
off lows struck earlier in the session as investors weighed disappointing
economic data against mostly upbeat earnings. The Dow did end its recent win
streak at seven sessions but had been down as much as 120 points earlier in the
day. Reports cite late day moves for BP (BP), as a test cap on the Gulf spill reportedly is working,
and for Goldman Sachs (GS), as
speculation of an SEC settlement grew.
Thursday
began with earnings-inspired gains but that advance was erased by disappointing
economic data.
Stocks
gained intially after mostly positive results from JP Morgan Chase (JPM), but even JPM turned lower as trading
progressed. CEO Jamie Dimon offered cautious remarks about future economic
growth.
Attention
shifted to the economy and Wall Street was treated to a round of data.
The
steep drops reported Thursday in the Empire State and Philadelphia Fed
Manufacturing indexes dented optimism about the manufacturing industry, which
had shown the most consistent growth coming out of the recession, the AP said.
The
Empire State index fell to 5.08, well below the 18.50 economists had predicted
and the 19.57 reported last month. The Philly Fed index dropped to 5.1 for
July. Economists had predicted it would rise to 10.0.
The
Fed's report on industrial production showed output at the nation's factories,
mines and utilities rose by 0.1% in June, better than the 0.1% drop economists
forecast.
The
Labor Department did say earlier Thursday that initial claims for jobless
benefits fell by 29,000 to a seasonally adjusted 429,000, the lowest level
since August 2008. Economists polled by Thomson Reuters had predicted claims
would drop to 450,000.
Finally,
a look at June producer prices showed a deeper-tha-expected 0.5% decline
overall. The core rate, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, rose
0.1%, the eighth consecutive monthly gain. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch
had expected overall producer prices to fall 0.1% and the core to gain 0.1%.
Commodities
were mixed to lower in late trading with gold ending slightly higher and crude
ending lower for the day.
Crude
oil for August delivery ended down 0.6%, or $0.42, to $76.62 a barrel on the
New York Mercantile Exchange.
In
other energy futures, heating oil fell 1.28%, or $0.02, to $2.01 a gallon while
natural gas rose 6%, or $0.26, to $4.57 per million British thermal units.
Meanwhile,
gold futures rose as buyers sought money safe havens.
Gold
for August delivery rose $1.30, or 0.1%, to $1,208.30 an ounce. In other metal
futures, silver rose $0.07, or 0.38%, to $18.36 a troy ounce while copper rose
0.07% to $3.01 a pound.
Fed Cuts Growth Outlook That
‘extended period of economic weakness language thing’ sounds like the ‘d’ word,
as in depression.
NATION NEWS DIGEST: J.P. Morgan Chase
posts $4.8 billion profit (Washington Post) Yet another ‘Come on’ day on fraudulent wall street! This
time it’s the unexpected jump in continuing claims for unemployment, yesterday
the downward revision to previous market-frothing retail sales report and poor
retail sales and plunge in mortgage applications and then there’s the fed
minutes pointing to extended bad economy. Then there’s also now the ‘goldfinger
factor’ as in goldman’s middle finger. When you defraud for many billions, paying $550 million is
chump change. Goldman shares rocketed 5.5% in after-hours trading. No wonder
Goldman called it "the right outcome for our firm shareholders and
clients." (Absent
prosecutions, they’ll continue to do what comes natural to frauds on wall
street). Great opportunity to sell / take profits since much worse, also called
reality beyond the b*** s***, to come. Then there’s also the bad but typical
news; viz., previous retail sales, mortgage apps, economic outlook down, and
continuing claims for unemployment, deficits, trade / budget, up. (Just in:
7-16-10 Poll – only 43% of Americans approve of the Afganistan War, down from
52% in January, 2010)
Pearlstein: Can
regulation beget innovation? (Washington Post) I believe the more seminal question to be,
whether american companies, consistent with overall american decline and
corruption in so pervasive a fashion, are capable of or inclined toward real innovation
where enhancements to productivity, as well as greater profits, is the
consequence as desired. Certainly there has been ‘innovation’ by the wall
street frauds in the types of (ultimately worthless / fraudulent) paper and
high frequency trade programs enhancing their bottom-lines but little else;
and, those cutting edge ‘weapons of mass destruction’ produced or financed
(israel) by america are hardly productive in the economic sense but innovative
and profitable in the short run, and unwise and nation-bankrupting in the
longer run which we’re in right now!
Goldman
agrees to pay $550M (Washington Post) My own skepticism based on the disparate numbers (the
size of the frauds compared to the relatively small fine) and as set forth in
the initial reactions / headlines that immediately follow has been allayed
somewhat by an interview on NBR with former SEC head Ruder who explained the
very narrow scope of the settlement which in no way shelters goldman from the
huge frauds they have perpetrated. So long as this is true in fact as well as
law and in application, the SEC deserves praise as has been so under the
auspices of ‘Mother Mary’ who appears to have the gonads lacking in prior SEC
heads. The frauds on
wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and
disgorgement imposed.
Wall
Street Is Laundering Drug Money And Getting Away With It Zach Carter | Wachovia was moving money behind literally tons of
cocaine from violent drug cartels. It wasn’t an accident.
They
still know how to count. When you defraud for many billions, paying $550
million is chump change. Goldman
to pay $550M to settle civil fraud charges (AP) - Goldman
Sachs & Co. has agreed to pay $550 million to settle civil fraud charges
that accused the Wall Street giant of misleading buyers of mortgage-related
investments. Late stock rally
ahead of Goldman settlement news And the beat goes on!
Goldman Sachs beats the SEC NEW YORK (MarketWatch) – ‘Can
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. wheel and deal or what? The bank and brokerage's
settlement with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday over the
ill-fated Abacus deal may be its best trade ever. At $550 million, it's not terribly expensive. Goldman / quotes / Comstock / 13*!gs / quotes / nls /gs (GS 152.19, +6.97, +4.80%) hasn't agreed to restrict its practices
in any meaningful way. And poof! The firm can go back to work with its biggest
liability paid. Investors are ecstatic, Goldman shares rocketed 5.5% in
after-hours trading. No wonder Goldman called it "the right outcome for
our firm shareholders and clients." See
full story on the SEC settlement. For the regulators, the settlement is
more than just anticlimactic. Having bet all of its chips on reversing
embarrassing episodes such as the Bernie Madoff fiasco in an aggressive case
against Wall Street, the SEC whiffed.
Sure, the settlement is the biggest in the agency's history. Yes, the
SEC was able to squeeze Goldman on the settlement language and admit it was a
"mistake" not to have disclosed Paulson & Co.'s role in picking
the ill-fated securities. But come on. Goldman's net income last year was $12.1
billion. It could be even higher this year, given the robust first quarter
Goldman already has had. The settlement amounts to less than 5% of profits.
Maybe Goldman Sachs will even be able to write it off …’ Goldman pays $550 mln to settle CDO suit with SEC
Then there is the well researched,
produced, and informative ‘ESOTERIC AGENDA’ which explains how we’ve gotten to
this forlorn point: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7052400717834950257#
For
now, spew of oil into Gulf of Mexico is halted (Washington Post) Well, thank God for small favors! I suggest they change that
name, ‘integrity test’; that’s doomed to end in failure. Yes, the brits are
back. They’ve clogged the well, with help from the ‘usual suspects’, the
americans. What precision! What teamwork!
Victory at last … riiiiight!
DRUDGEREPORT:
Specter's
YES Kagan vote; Obama job offer...
GIFT
TO THE DEMS: BUSH TO RELEASE BOOK FOR ELECTION; LEAKS BEGIN IN OCTOBER...
SENATE
PA$$ES SWEEPING BANK BILL...
Biggest
expansion of government power over banking, markets since Depression...
REVEALED:
Senate VIP Loans Mount...
JP
MORGANCHASE reports 77% rise in profit...
...Banks
repossess homes at record pace; likely to top 1 million in 2010...
ECONOMIC
/ FINANCIAL
Another ‘Come on’ day on
fraudulent wall street! This time it’s the unexpected downward revision to
previous market-frothing retail sales report and poor retail sales and plunge
in mortgage applications and then there’s the fed minutes pointing to extended
bad economy. See Dave Fry’s (Daily) summary below referencing in euphemistic
fashion, yet another ongoing manipulation also known as fraud. (Absent
prosecutions, they’ll continue to do what comes natural to frauds on wall
street). Great opportunity to sell / take profits since much worse, also called
reality beyond the b*** s***, to come. Then there’s also the bad but typical
news; viz., retail sales, mortgage
apps, economic outlook down, and yesterday deficits, trade and budget, up.
‘This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global
depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular
bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the
prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders
commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the
hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes.’
Stick Save Into the Close Wednesday: Dave's Daily ‘There's a clash between ongoing worse than expected economic data and
better than expected earnings. Seasonally, it's generally been a good time for
bulls with earnings rolling out. Some, like Intel's Tuesday after the close had
their CEO downright giddy. Ironically, the stimulants for Tuesday's rally were
earnings reports from Alcoa and CSX, but while nobody was paying much attention
both stocks closed flat to mixed. That was weird. Economic data Wednesday
revolved around poor Retail Sales data and a continuing implosion in mortgage
applications. Also, the Fed Minutes were released showing governors pondering
an economic slowdown. The WSJ
published an excellent article detailing why individual investors have left
stock market sectors leaving it to (ahem) "professionals". This makes
manipulative activities easy for Da Boyz. So, with volume light again launching
an end-of-day "stick save" prevented indices from doing that
"sell thing" that is antithetical to current marching orders.
Although the indices finished higher breadth was decidedly negative …’
Fed Cuts Growth Outlook Concerns over
Europe, domestic data lead policy-setting committee to tone down 2010 GDP
forecast, raise unemployment expectation. The Federal Open Market Committee has a dimmer view of the economic
outlook these days, in the wake of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and
mixed data back home. "The FOMC greeted the European crisis and the
ensuing soft patch of data with repose," says JPMorgan Chase analyst
Michael Feroli. "Nonetheless, the increased sense of downside risk led the
committee to conclude that in addition to planning for an exit strategy, some
contingency planning for more stimulus would also be prudent, just in
case."...
That
‘extended period of economic weakness language thing’ sounds like the ‘d’ word,
as in depression.
Cruisin’ for a bruisin’? Contrary
to self-delusion, that’s exactly what america’s endless war non-policy has
amounted to with nothing but death, destruction, desired increase in heroin
trade, and defacto bankruptcy for the u.s. to show for it. Times Square Bomber Vows Revenge in
Al-Arabiya Video Washington
Post - July 14 (Bloomberg) -- Faisal Shahzad, who pleaded guilty
last month to trying to explode a car bomb in New York's Times Square, says in
a video that he planned the attack as revenge for the US war in Afghanistan,
...
DRUDGEREPORT: Europe
warns Obama: This relationship not working...
House
Dems hit boiling point...
Pentagon
warns Congress: Accounts running dry...
Bill
Clinton back in White House, holds economic meeting...
New
Regulations Hit Farmers...
Business
Groups Air Concerns...
Obama
Admin OKs First Tax-Funded Abortions Under HealthCare Law...
$20
MILLION SPENT ON STIMULUS SIGNS?
Come on! How many times are they going to discount
these earnings which were the so called excuse for market rise many months ago
despite the nation-bankrupting cost of same? Great opportunity to sell / take
profits since much worse, also called reality beyond the b*** s***, to come.
Then there’s also the bad but typical news; viz., deficits, trade and budget,
up.
‘This is a global
depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up
move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has
been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with
great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell
into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam /
fraud as in prior crashes.’
WHICH WAY IS THE MARKET GOING NEXT? Gomes: ‘Having been a technical analyst for the first 10
years of my investing career and a fundamental analyst for the past 15 years,
I'm a believer that technical patterns form as fundamentals unfold. As such, if
you know something about both, you can confirm both against each other. At this
point in time, I see a market that is technically reaching up toward its 200
day moving average (2,250 for the NASDAQ). I also see a 50 day moving average
that is threatening to drop below that 200 day moving average. Technically,
that is usually a very bad sign for the market. The question is, "will the
50DMA drop below the 200DMA?" I think the answer is inevitably
"yes". The thing about the moving averages, is that you can see which
points of data are about to fall off. Meanwhile, you can make reasonable
assumptions regarding the points of data that will take their place. By doing
so, you can construct a range of probabilistic scenarios. In this case, some
high numbers are about to come out of the 50DMA, making it go lower. Meanwhile,
some low numbers are about to come out of the 200DMA, making it go higher.
Since both are VERY close to each other right now, it's safe to assume that the
50DMA will indeed fall below the 200DMA. So, that's probably bad news for the
market...technically. Fundamentally, it appears that Q2 turned out well for most
companies. However, most of the investing world knows this and stocks have
rallied about 8% on the news. Ever hear the saying "buy the rumor, sell
the news"? Well, the rumor has been bought and the news is just starting
to flow in. This means that we have to look at the NEXT bit of news to figure
out what rumor the market will be buying or selling. To me, it's clear that the
global economic environment will come back to the front burner as the #1 driver
of stock prices...and that's bad news for stocks. A good Q2 does not mean that
the future is bright. Rather, I believe that Q2 will represent the peak of
earnings health. Starting in Q3, good earnings will become a bit harder to come
by. Why?
1) Economic indicators are dropping fast. For all intents and purposes,
the unemployment rate has not budged. Meanwhile, store shelves are stocked
again, PCs have been upgraded, etc. In other words, the pent-up demand that
drove the current rebound has almost run its course. What little remains no
longer has the power to drive the economy as it has over the past 18-months.
2) "Follow the money". This is
one of the most powerfully simple rules on Wall Street. When money is flowing
into the economy (i.e. via lower interest rates or stimulus $$$), it's usually
good for stocks..and vice versa. At present, interest rates can't go much lower
and the numerous stimulus programs are losing effectiveness. This means that
the money is no longer flowing in. Worse yet, the money that was spent is not
generally viewed as having been money well spent. This does not bode well for a
new stimulus package to come anytime soon. In other words, money is not flowing
in AND doesn't appear poised to flow in anytime soon. In fact, state and
municipal budgets are being cut (money flowing OUT), while they raise local
sales and income taxes (more money flowing out). if federal taxes go up in
2011, as planned, even more money will be flowing out. If you follow that, you
should be flowing out of the stock market. In short, barring a new stimulus
package of other major money-flowing event, I believe the economy slips back
toward recession. Whether or not we double-dip, we will almost certainty slip
in that direction.
3) If you follow the money in
Europe, you will run for the hills. Europe has decided to spin
180-degrees and shift from stimulus to austerity (if you don't know the
definition, look it up -- you'll likely hear it again -- and not just from me).
Effectively the opposite of stimulus, austerity will pull money away from the
European economies...which tells us to pull money away from stocks. Worse yet,
the effect of the EU/IMF bailout is already wearing off. Greek yields are
rising again and Portuguese credit ratings have been reduced.
4) Global bubbles are bursting. Most
notably, home sales in China and Canada are starting to fall. Remember what
happened when the U.S. housing market cracked? That's right -- that's what
started this mess in the first place.
5) Politically, this period in
time has a tendency to be bad for stocks. There is uncertainty around
the mid-year elections...and the market hates uncertainty. Historically, the
political picture doesn't become clear until October, at which point we might
expect a rally. Until then, expect the democrats to do everything they can to
retain their jobs in November. That means, "stop pissing off the
public"...and the public seems pretty pissed about how the stimulus $$$
worked out for them (or more accurately, how it DIDN'T work out for them).
Thus, the political pressure will lean against further stimulus until after the
elections.
The Bottom Line: I
believe that the market will start to reflect these concerns very soon. These
are real fundamental concerns, which you can see reflected in the technicals.
As the market reaches the 50DMA and the 200DMA, it will be inclined to retreat
(barring some new, hugely positive news). Meanwhile, the 50DMA is 90%+ likely
to cross below the 200DMA, giving the market more reason to retrench. At some
point, if the economy sinks far enough and if the market drops far enough,
political pressure for more stimulus will mount. At that point, money will flow
back into the economy. But that time is not now. Now, money is flowing away
like the tide...and so should your invested capital. I'm not always right, but
I do my best, based on the information before me. Based on what I see right
now, the most logical conclusion is to expect a long, ugly summer for stocks.
If I see information that changes that view, I'll be sure to post an update to
this post. Disclosure: I have short positions against the market
Then there is
the well researched, produced, and informative ‘Esoteric Agenda’ which explains
how we’ve gotten to this forlorn point: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7052400717834950257#
U.S.
Regulatory Bill Nears Passage With Republican Support The U.S. Senate plans to pass the
financial-regulation bill on July 15 as Democrats secured the 60 votes needed
to enact the biggest rewrite of Wall Street rules since the Great
Depression. Moody’s
Cuts Portugal Rating by Two Notches Moody’s slashed Portugal’s credit rating by two notches to A1,
citing a deterioration of the country’s debt ratios and weak growth prospects,
the ratings agency said Tuesday. Scientific
Proof That High Frequency Trading Induces Adverse Changes In Market Microstructure
And Dynamics, And Puts Market Fairness Under Question Up until recently, any debate between
proponents and opponents of High Frequency Trading would typically be
represented by heated debates of high conviction on either side, with discussions
rapidly deteriorating into ad hominem attacks and the producer screaming ‘cut
to commercial’ to prevent fistfights.
Chinese
rating agency strips Western nations of AAA status London Telegraph | China’s
leading credit rating agency has stripped America, Britain, Germany and France
of their AAA ratings. Silver’s
Historical Correlation with Gold Suggests A Parabolic Top As High As $714 per
Ounce! munkee |
Almost 70 respected economists, academics, gold analysts and market
commentators (see list below) are of the firm opinion that gold is going to go
to at least $2,500 if not as high as $10,000. U.S.
Regulatory Bill Nears Passage With Republican Support Bloomberg | The U.S.
Senate plans to pass the financial-regulation bill on July 15 as Democrats
secured the 60 votes needed. UK
public sector debt ‘around Ł2 trillion’ London Telegraph |
The UK’s public sector debt could be Ł1.13 trillion higher than headline
figures suggest, according to research.
Moody’s
Cuts Portugal Rating by Two Notches CNBC | Moody’s slashed Portugal’s credit rating
by two notches to A1, citing a deterioration of the country’s debt ratios and
weak growth prospects. Romanian
Recession Deepens on Cuts, BOA Merrill Says Bloomberg | Romania’s recession this year will be
deeper than previously seen as the government cut spending and raised the
value-added tax to curb a swelling budget deficit.
DRUDGEREPORT: 'White
House waving white flag'...
Panic
button...
WIRE:
Dems show signs of battle fatigue...
Federal
deficit gap tops $1 trillion through June...
Republicans
propose cutting Obama budget...
'CREDIBILITY
CRISIS'
No
help in sight for jobless (Washington Post) Well, from their perspective, they
really don’t feel your pain, and, it gives the frauds on wall street another
b*** s***, market frothing, false talking point in the form of ‘fewer
continuing claims for unemployment’. Then there’s that ‘ depression thing’.
The big crash — America plunges into Depression Alexander Cockburn
‘This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn, pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes.’
Making millions from mowing lawns [Sounds like a plan … riiiiight!] (Washington Post) Value Added | Entrepreneur's reinvestment and diversification … By Thomas Heath For the less entrepreneurial at heart there’s always … flippin’ burgers … Washington, D.C.: the nation's (burger) capital? (Washington Post) | ‘The Washington area has emerged as fertile ground for ground chuck …’ Survey: A satisfied federal workforce (Washington Post) Indeed they should be since they’re totally expendable and a waste of taxpayer money.
Return of the No-Volume Melt-Up
The
big crash — America plunges into Depression Alexander Cockburn
‘This is a global
depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up
move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has
been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with
great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell
into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn, pass the hot potato scam /
fraud as in prior crashes.’
Making
millions from mowing lawns
[Sounds like a plan … riiiiight!] (Washington Post) Value Added | Entrepreneur's reinvestment and
diversification … By Thomas Heath
For the less entrepreneurial at heart there’s always … flippin’ burgers
… Washington,
D.C.: the nation's (burger) capital? (Washington Post) |
‘The Washington area has emerged as fertile ground for ground chuck …’ Survey:
A satisfied federal workforce (Washington Post) Indeed they
should be since they’re totally expendable and a waste of taxpayer money.
Return of the No-Volume Melt-Up ‘Well, the markets have managed to
regain some semblance of their previous lunacy, going virtually parabolic on
next to no volume. Indeed, if you ignored the “year” data, you’d think you were looking at 2009’s market all over again what with the gaps up, late day
CLEAR ramp jobs, and overnight manipulations: [chart] We’ve also seen the return of another 2009 hallmark: the no
volume melt-up. Indeed, volume has been in a decline since early May. However,
the volume last week was particularly pathetic as stocks entered Looney
Tune-ville again. [chart] … With that in mind, this rally,
unless it turns into something more, should be seen as a gift from the market
gods to shift to cash and prepare to establish another round of shorts. On that
note, back in March I urged subscribers to shift largely to cash. Since that
time we’ve been riding the market down via
a series of carefully played shorts, collecting gains of 7%, 9%, 10%, 14%, 16%,
even 19% at a time when the market has lost 12%. Indeed, all told, we’ve had 27 winning trades in the last two months. Over the
same time period, we’ve only had eight losers. The
largest was -9%. The others were in the low single digits (-2%, -3%, -5%, etc).
As I write this, we’re preparing our next round of
shorts for when the market rolls over. So far the market collapse has
established a very clear pattern of lower lows. And my target for the next low
will be sub-1000 on the S&P 500 [chart] During its last plunge, the S&P
500 fell to 1,020. It actually touched 1,004 on the overnight futures session.
So it’s an almost certainty that when
this rally ends and the next leg down begins, we’re going below 1,000.
Momentum Book Update: Trend Indicators Still Pointing Negative
Employment Picture Is Getting Bleaker ‘In "Not Very
Bright," I noted that equity investors are pretty clueless when it
comes to assessing and comprehending the bigger picture. Given that, maybe they
took the news detailed in the following Calculated Risk post, "Small
Businesses Still Reluctant to Hire," as a sign that small businesses
are interested in acquiring stocks, not employees? Otherwise, it's hard to see
any other reason for Friday's rally than manipulation or pure, unadulterated
stupidity. From Sharon Bernstein at the LA Times: Jobs
outlook for small businesses may be getting bleaker Intuit Inc., which
provides payroll services for small employers, says the nation's tiniest companies
had fewer new hires last month than any time since October... To calculate its
estimate of national hiring, Intuit uses payroll information from its 56,000
small-business customers. The company defines small businesses as those with
fewer than 20 employees. Intuit's data show that small businesses hired just
18,000 additional workers last month. That's still positive territory, but it's
less than a third of the 60,000 that were added in February, when it seemed
that an employment recovery was imminent. Additional hiring dropped steadily
during the spring, to 40,000 in April and 32,000 in May. Another payroll
company, Automatic Data Processing Inc., painted an even gloomier picture,
saying that small businesses lost 1,000 jobs nationwide in June. According to
surveys by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), the problem
isn't lack of financing or government regulation - the problem is a "shortage
of customers". NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg recently
said: “What small businesses need are
customers, giving them a reason to hire and make capital expenditures and
borrow to support those activities.” Of course, regardless of how
ignorant the bulls are about the world around them, it seems pretty clear that
the concerns of small businesses aren't only relevant to that segment of the
economy. If the following chart is any guide, I don't expect we'll be seeing a
recovery in the overall employment market anytime soon: [chart] .’
The Debt Party Is Over … In a Ponzi scheme, the end comes when the marginal
investor decides to do something else with his money. Then the house of cards
stars falling apart. … Market Outlook With the earnings season starting next
week, market volatility could stay at elevated levels. From our perspective the
most important information from this season would be the outlook from
management as reported earnings are already a rear mirror image. The key word
that may summarize management outlook might be “caution” which implies hair-thin triggers for
additional cost-cutting measures. The illusion that equities should be held for
the long run is broken. Complex accounting rules and pro-forma results have
overstated earnings for many years. Although we are not in the conspiracy camp,
there is a vast net of interests that benefit on keeping the illusion alive. A
generation of investors could drive a massive switch into fixed income,
pressuring equities to lower PE ratios. In addition, lower earnings will
pressure equity prices as well.Out of equities and into fixed income.
Treasuries and high quality credits should be favored. Disclosure:
Short the market through ETFs’
While boner and barton are indeed jokes /
vegetables that bespeak the single-digit approval rate for congress, obama’s
failure to deliver on promises with as well, endless war spending despite
defacto bankruptcy of the nation and a watered down nothing financial
regulation bill for talking points but little substance, make him as big a
joker. This well researched / produced video tells the real story : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAaQNACwaLw&feature=PlayList&p=2EFAB57B44063742&playnext_from=PL&index=0&playnext=1 ‘THE OBAMA DECEPTION’ – well worth the
view.
The Collapse Is Upon Us crabbydogtrix | From coast
to coast, the economic and social collapse is upon us. Central
banks start to abandon the U.S. dollar There are those who would argue that the financial crisis was
caused by over-enthusiastic worship of the Almighty Dollar. Call it brutal
financial karma, but that church is looking pretty empty these days. Presenting
The Wall Of Worry: The 50 Ugliest Facts About The US eCONomy After
reading these it almost makes sense that the market has become completely
desensitized to the sad reality now pervasive in this country. The
Financial Con Of The Decade Explained So Simply Even A Congressman Will Get It Sometimes,
when chasing the bouncing ball of fraud and corruption on a daily basis, it is
easy to lose sight of the forest for the millions of trees (all of which have a
150% LTV fourth-lien on them, underwritten by Goldman Sachs, which is short the
shrubbery tranche). Is
the IMF about Ready to Muscle U.S. Taxpayers? The IMF has long been a bought, and paid for, muscle arm of the
U.S. government and the banking elite.
Economic
Hitmen Come for Their ‘Pound of Flesh’ in New Jersey Activist Post | More
cash-strapped states will surely follow suit and the fascist takeover of all
public services at rock-bottom prices will commence. The Collapse Is Upon Us crabbydogtrix | From coast to coast, the economic and social
collapse is upon us. Is
the IMF about Ready to Muscle U.S. Taxpayers? Robert Wenzel | It
appears the elite appear to want to up the ante and are getting set to turn the
guns inward and go after the hard earned money of Americans.
The
big crash — America
plunges into Depression Alexander Cockburn | Young Americans have given up watching the news.
It’s
too depressing. Berlin
Pushing For European Bankruptcy Framework With Provision For State Sovereignty
Give Up Zero Hedge | Plan would take implicit control over and override
a default nation’s treasury, in essence pushing the bankrupt country
into a form of Feudal vassal state-cum-reparations subservience. Romanian
Recession Deepens on Cuts, BOA Merrill Says Bloomberg | Romania’s recession this year
will be deeper than previously seen as the government cut spending and raised
the value-added tax to curb a swelling budget deficit.
DRUDGEREPORT: BOMBSHELL: Media Mogul Mort Zuckerman Admits He Wrote One Of Obama's
Speeches...
Were White House Officials Ready to Expose Collaboration?
Zuckerman Now: Obama Barely Treading Water...
MICHELLE
TELLS BLACKS TO 'INCREASE INTENSITY'
6
troops killed in Afghanistan...
DEM
GOVS WARN: OBAMA SUIT VS. AZ IS 'TOXIC'
Debt
panel has gloomy outlook...
Crisis
Awaits World’s Banks as Trillions Come Due...
G20
looks to Beijing to drive global growth … They’re dreamin’! ...
They say ‘stocks oversold’. Preposterous!
Stocks have been overbought based on bad news or nothing at all, rallying on
‘not as bad as expected’. Even if that were true (I don’t believe anything they
say), who cares what the criminally insane frauds on wall street say what they
expect. It’s fundamentals, economic and financial, that ultimately count; but,
in the meantime, they’re like termites eating away at the nation’s foundation
with lightning fast computerized trade programs, all of which excessively huge
commission churn / earn revenues are a net negative for the economy in real
economic terms which is evidenced by unprecedented economic decline in all
productive sectors of the economy. This is a great opportunity to SELL / TAKE
PROFITS since this suckers rally to suck suckers in and keep them sucked in is
based on fraud and b*** s*** alone
and: ‘This is a global depression. This
is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up move was a
manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a
typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great
regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into.
This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud
as in prior crashes.’
They say ‘stocks oversold’. Preposterous!
Stocks have been overbought based on bad news or nothing at all, rallying on
‘not as bad as expected’. Even if that were true (I don’t believe anything they
say), who cares what the criminally insane frauds on wall street say what they
expect. It’s fundamentals, economic and financial, that ultimately count; but,
in the meantime, they’re like termites eating away at the nation’s foundation
with lightning fast computerized trade programs, all of which excessively huge
commission churn / earn revenues are a net negative for the economy in real
economic terms which is evidenced by unprecedented economic decline in all
productive sectors of the economy. This is a great opportunity to SELL / TAKE
PROFITS since this suckers rally to suck suckers in and keep them sucked in is
based on fraud and b*** s*** alone
and: ‘This is a global depression. This
is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up move was a
manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a
typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great
regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into.
This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud
as in prior crashes.’
Technical Indicators Trigger Major
Sell Signal ‘…In summary, the bearish picture is confirmed by technical
indicators, a fundamental outlook, sentiment gauges, and valuations.Based on
what the market considered fair market valuations at prior historic market
bottoms, one can conclude how far stocks have to drop to reach the previously
attained level of fair valuations …’
: ‘On Friday July 9,
2010, 4:32 pm EDT It rarely ever happens, but when it does, it's
serious. It has only happened nine times in 10 years. We are referring to
crossovers between the 200-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs).Very
few technical indicators receive as much attention and media coverage as the 50
and 200-day SMAs. The 200-day MA is perceived to be the dividing line between a
stock that is technically healthy and one that is not. It's
a Big Deal It's a big deal
when a stock or an index drops below the 200-day SMA. It's an even bigger deal
when the 50-day SMA of any given stock or index drops below the 200-day SMA.
Such a crossover reflects internal weakness - at least in theory. We'll discuss
in a moment how the actual numbers match up with theoretic assumptions. On June
22, 2010, the S&P 500 (SNP: ^GSPC) and Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI) dropped below
the 200-day SMA. One day later the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) followed. On July 2,
2010, the 50-day SMA for the S&P (NYSEArca: SPY
- News)
dropped below the 200-day SMA. On July 6, the Dow Jones (NYSEArca: DIA
- News)
followed. As of today, the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: QQQQ
- News)
is barely hanging on. This sounds like a doomsday scenario. Does a rigid
analysis show that there is validity to 200-day and 50-day SMA crossover
buy/sell signals? Let's investigate.Crossovers - Lagging
but Notable Many argue that
the SMA crossover is a delayed signal that emphasizes past weakness more than
it foreshadows future declines. To an extent, that is true. There are other
warning signals that point to a market turn long before the SMA does. For
example, on April 16, 2010, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted an
extremely low put/call ratio along with other bullish sentiment extremes. The
newsletter stated that 'the message conveyed by the composite bullishness is
unmistakably bearish. Once prices start to fall and investors get afraid of
incurring losses, the only option is to sell (due to the low put/call ratio).
Selling, results in more selling. This negative feedback loop usually results
in rapidly falling prices.' Prices did fall rapidly. The 22 trading days
following the April 26 high, erased eight months worth of gains. It took a 17%
drop for the SMA crossover to trigger a sell signal. When the ETF Profit
Strategy Newsletter issued a strong buy signal on March 2, 2009, it emphasized
that the developing rally would be a counter trend rally followed by a steep
decline and maintained this viewpoint even though prices kept rallying
relentlessly into the April highs. The SMA crossover now expresses the
possibility that even lower prices are ahead. 200
and 50-day SMA Crossovers - How Accurate?
How about the SMA crossover track record? Over
the past 10 years, there have been nine S&P SMA crossovers with five sell
and four buy signals. We have yet to see the results of the most recent sell
signal. However, of the eight previous signals, six were correct. Average gains
following each signal were 14.91%. $10,000 invested according to the buy/sell
recommendations given right after the first sell signal was triggered on
October 30, 2000 at S&P 1,399, would be worth $24,769 today. More
Than just Crossovers If it sounds too good to be true, it
often is. As is the case with so many technical indicators, crossovers need to
be viewed in context with other indicators. In other words, take a step back
and evaluate how crossovers fit into the larger picture. The larger picture
(going back to 2007) reveals that trading volume associated with market
declines has been generally high, while trading volume seen during rallies has
been generally low; a bearish sign. Does Wednesday's
3.13% Rally Invalidate the Sell Signal?
On Wednesday, the S&P rallied 32 points or
3.13%. The Dow rallied 2.82%, while the Nasdaq rallied 3.13%. Does this
mean the bull market is back on track?Since the April market top, we've seen
about a handful of 2-3% bounces. All associated gains were erased within a
matter of days. Chances are this time will be the same. In fact, some sort of
bounce was to be expected. On July 5, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter stated
'considering that the S&P is butting against the 100-week SMA, lower
accelerations band, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels, round number resistance
at 1,000, and weekly s1 at 994, there is a good chance we will see some sort of
a bounce develop from the 990 - 1,015 area. Weekly r1 at 1,066 and pivot at
1,063 should serve as resistance.' This bounce is in its later stages right
now. What's Next?
Let's revisit the larger picture. Out of the
nine leading industry sectors, seven have seen their 50-day SMA cross below the
200-day SMA - financials (NYSEArca: XLF
- News),
technology (NYSEArca: XLK - News),
consumer staples (NYSEArca: XLP - News),
materials (NYSEArca: XLB - News),
utilities (NYSEArca: XLU - News),
energy (NYSEArca: XLE - News)
and healthcare (NYSEArca: XLV - News).
The consumer discretionary (NYSEArca: XLY
- News)
and industrial sector (NYSEArca: XLI - News)
are the only holdouts. All nine sectors, however, trade below their 200-day
SMA. Fundamentals, sentiment readings and valuations also point south. Some of
the fundamentals we have discussed in these pages are crafty accounting
practices designed to hide huge losses racked up by big financial institutions
not yet realized along with a continually bad unemployment picture. Sentiment
surrounding the April highs recorded extremes not seen since the 2000, 2007,
and even 1987 market top. There are multiple sentiment measures (such as the
VIX, cash allocation, put/call ratio, percentage of bullish/bearish advisors,
mutual fund cash levels, etc.). Each sentiment
measure is one piece of the puzzle. The more pieces of the puzzle you have, the
clearer the picture becomes. Leading up to the April highs, nearly all
sentiment indicators peaked, painting a complete bearish picture. In summary,
the bearish picture is confirmed by technical indicators, a fundamental
outlook, sentiment gauges, and valuations. Based on what the market considered
fair market valuations at prior historic market bottoms, one can conclude how
far stocks have to drop to reach the previously attained level of fair
valuations. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
includes a detailed analysis of four valuation metrics with a track record of
accuracy, along with the implied target range for an ultimate market bottom.
This is provided in addition to its short, mid and long-term forecast. When the
market speaks, it behooves investors to listen. Fighting the tape has often
proven to be foolish, as the market will always have the final word.’
A
Market Forecast That Says ‘Take Cover’ New York Times
| We have entered a market decline of staggering proportions — perhaps the
biggest of the last 300 years.
Commercial Real Estate Loans Extend
and Pretend ‘…Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters Commercial Real Estate Loans – Extend and Pretend Community banks
have commercial real estate loans where the borrower cannot make scheduled
interest and principle payments. More than 50% of all FDIC-insured institutions
have loan pipelines that are 80% to 100% funded. This is a measure of how banks
are stuck with noncurrent assets, but they are not classified that way.
Instead, community banks are giving borrowers more time to make their payments
on the theory that it’s better to collect zero on some loans rather than owning
the real estate that collateralizes those loans. This concept is dubbed “extend and pretend” hoping that the borrower will eventual
pay the loan back. Banks in this practice are known as “Zombie Banks” as they can’t lend, can’t lure in new investors, and wait for
the FDIC to knock on their doors on Friday afternoon. This strategy includes
stretching out loan maturities and allowing below-market interest rates to slow
the number of defaults and preserving the capital of banks that would be
expended if property had to become “Other Real Estate Owned.” As a result “Loans 30 to 89 Days in Arrears” and “Noncurrent” loans are not growing as fast as they
should be. The net result of these practices masks the true toxicity of the
Commercial Real Estate market. It’s not just the small banks that are employing “extend and pretend” tactics. I read that the Bank of
America (BAC) has
extended a large real estate loan in Buckhead, Georgia the high-class area
north of Atlanta. The loan finances the development of a high-end shopping and
residential project in 2007 and now three years later the cranes are silent and
the project is fenced in. The banking regulators are helping the banks by
allowing the lenders several ways to restructure loans. While doing so the
banks are allowed to keep these loans as “performing” even with collateral values below the loan amounts. Extend
and pretend is also known as kicking the can down the road. It seems to me that
we have wasted billions if not trillions in stimulus money and bank bailouts
when this money could have been used to actually fund the completion of these
projects. Such a plan would have cost tax payers much less and would have kept
Americans working on Main Street USA, as finishing incompleted real estate
projects are clearly “shovel ready” projects. According to Foresight Analytics banks hold $176
billion of CRE loans that could be declared toxic. This is the tip of the
iceberg as the FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile shows $1.09 trillion in nonfarm
nonresidential real estate loans and $418 billion in Construction &
Development loans on the books of our nation’s banks. About two-thirds of the CRE
loans are maturing between now and 2014, and are underwater. Commercial real
estate property values are down 42% from the October 2007 peak. At the end of
the first quarter 9.1% are delinquent up from 7% a year earlier. Bankers
justify “extend and pretend” saying that it’s better than calling the loan and
dumping more property on a depressed market. We need a stronger economy to
entice new investors to resurrect projects and to find new demand for competed
offices, hotels, condos etc which are the finished products of completed CRE
projects. Without a strong economic recovery these loans will eventually have
to be written off down the road. The problem is that while these loans are on
hold banks can’t justify new loans, which would be the engine of economic
growth. And the beat goes on. Disclosure: No positions’
While boner and barton are
indeed jokes / vegetables that bespeak the single-digit approval rate for
congress, obama’s failure to deliver on promises with as
well, endless war spending despite defacto bankruptcy of the nation and a
watered down nothing financial regulation bill for talking points but little
substance, make him as big a joker. This well researched / produced video tells
the real story : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAaQNACwaLw&feature=PlayList&p=2EFAB57B44063742&playnext_from=PL&index=0&playnext=1 ‘THE OBAMA DECEPTION’ –
well worth the view.
Light Volume Temptations: Dave's Daily ‘Volume still matters, doesn't it? It seems not as the
financial media ignores our light volume market in favor of writing bullish
headlines. With hedge funds mostly sidelined according to reports posted here
yesterday, the primary buyers must be trading desks on Wall Street and a
handful of algo traders. It's tempting to come off the sidelines and join the
fun but perhaps it's just the trap they're laying for you. A headline at
Reuters read this afternoon: "Weaker Economic Views Equals Stronger 3-Year
Note Sale". So, if equity markets are forward-looking one must wonder what
these few buyers are seeing beyond a short-term trade. Headline writers say its
strong earnings growth that will prop markets coupled with rosy outlooks. That
would have to be the case otherwise this is just a sucker's rally. As stated,
volume was holiday-like light (40% below average) making it really easy for the
machines to take over trading, and so they did ... ‘
DRUDGEREPORT: PAPER:
Optimism on hold; Recovery economy falters...
USA marks 3rd-largest, single-day
debt increase...
Deficit hits $1 trillion in June
for second year...
IMF presses US to cut debt...
NSA INTERNET GRAB; SPY AGENCY
SHIFTS TO DOMESTIC EAVESDROPPING...
CIVIL RIGHTS PANEL TO PURSUE FED
PROBE IN BLACK PANTHER CASE...
RESET: Russia slams Clinton for
'groundless' comments...
Mortgage Delinquencies Rising Again
as Home Prices Stay Flat...
Roubini: Banks Too Big to Fail, Too Big
to Bail Out...
COOKED APPLE: 103...
UPDATE:
MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE...
US v. AZ...
This is an especially great opportunity to
SELL / TAKE PROFITS since this suckers rally to suck suckers in and keep them
sucked in is based on fraud and b*** s*** alone and: ‘This is
a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. This
was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a
typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great
regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into.
This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud
as in prior crashes.’
Continuing claims for unemployment
fell more than expected to 4.41 million but the expiration of worker benefits
(a big negative for consumption) played a major part in that drop. Clearly a
desperate, fallen europe has adopted the fraudulent american b*** s*** paradigm
to help froth the markets for similar fraudulent reasons. Don’t forget, they
ultimately followed america’s ill-fated lead in lemming-like fashion of valuing
worthless assets at mark to anything and there are still hundreds of trillions
in worthless fraudulent paper carried
at ‘mark to anything’. Retailers deepened discounts
more than planned in June to draw recession-scarred shoppers to buy summer
clothes and other merchandise; but shoppers bought mostly necessaries,
resulting in small and less than expected revenue gains.
Another Light Volume Rally: Dave's Daily … Words fail
me. That's about all one can say. Jobless Claims came in about as expected,
lower than last week, but still trolling the ocean floor. Retailers reported
mixed results but no one seemed to care much. Crude oil rallied on a large
inventory drawdown. What else was there? Nothing really…
A
Market Forecast That Says ‘Take Cover’ New York Times
| We have entered a market decline of staggering proportions — perhaps the
biggest of the last 300 years.
AMERICA IS DEFACTO
BANKRUPT
-DRUDGEREPORT: USA
marks 3rd-largest, single-day debt increase...
Deficit
hits $1 trillion in June for second year...
IMF
presses US to cut debt...
My Short-Term Market
Forecast Graham Summers ‘… So while the possibility of a 1987 event is
there, I think we’re likely to continue to see this kind of “down the stairs”
collapse instead. Of course, it never pays to be married to one forecast. For
that reason, having some open shorts to profit from a potential 1987 Collapse
isn’t a bad idea. However, if you’re looking to maximize the profits from the
type of drops we’re seeing, you need to get in and get out using temporary
bottoms to lock in the gains and temporary rallies to enter new positions.’’
Should You Bear Market Proof Your Portfolio? , July 7, 2010: The
area was known to be an idyllic sanctuary. Snowcapped mountains, crystal clear
lakes, warm summers, a gentle autumn ... you get the picture. For nearly 180
years, Mount St. Helens remained silent, towering over the beautiful scenery
below. However, there were early warning signs pointing towards a potentially
catastrophic eruption of the volcano. Most viewed them as nothing more than hot
air (no pun intended). Doug, a farmer who lived close to the foot of the
mountain refused to evacuate. 'My mountain wouldn't do that to me' he said.
Less than 24 hours later, Doug and his farm were buried beneath 70 feet of mud
and volcanic debris.
What's the moral of this story?
1) Even subtle signs can foreshadow a significant event
2) Just because an event doesn't occur regularly doesn't mean it can't happen.
What does the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens have to do with the stock
market? More than you'd think.
Subtle Signs - Significant Results
Do you remember how stocks (NYSEArca: VTI - News) slowly but steadily inched
towards their April 26 highs? For nearly two months (from 2-26-10 to
4-15-10) the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) moved up without more than a 0.5% down day.
The picture for the Dow (DJI: ^DJI) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) looked
similar. Beneath the surface of rising prices, however, trouble was brewing. On
Wednesday, April 14, the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio dropped to 0.32, the lowest
reading in nearly two years and was 45% below its six-month average. On April
16, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter picked up the subtle put/call
ratio warning signal and published this cautionary note: 'Only a minority of
equity positions are equipped with a put safety net. Once prices do fall and
investors do get afraid of incurring losses, the only option is to sell. Selling,
results in more selling. This negative feedback loop usually results in rapidly
falling prices.' The 22 trading days following the April 26 market highs erased
eight months worth of gains. Bear markets move much quicker than bull markets.
Rule #1: Better too Early than too Late
When preparing for a bear market (we'll discuss in a moment why we have been
preparing for a bear market), it is prudent to start early. Anyone who sold
their long positions as early as September last year would be in a better position
than the buy-and hold crowd that is still clinging to their holdings.
Rule #2: Don't Trust Wall Street and the
Media
By now, even the mainstream media is sensing that something might not be quite
right with the market's performance. However, there is still hope that the
second half of the year will get a lift from positive earning results. Before
you bet your money on that line of reasoning, consider the picture the media
painted days within the April 2010 market top.
April 19, 2010
'America is back - The remarkable tale of an economic turnaround' – Newsweek
'Recovery tilting to V-shape as profits prompts growth revision' – Bloomberg
April 25, 2010:
'U.S. stocks cheapest since 1990 on analyst estimates' – Bloomberg
'Technical Analysts see room to roll' - Wall Street Journal
April 27, 2010
'Greece contagion fears unfounded' – Reuters
May 3, 2010:
'Manufacturing in U.S. grows at fastest pace since 2004 as recovery gains
traction' – Bloomberg
Over the past two and a half months, the S&P (NYSEArca: SPY - News) and Dow (NYSEArca: DIA - News) have lost as much as 17%. A
20% loss is considered the mark of a new bear market. In essence, we are only
one bad day away from the next bear. Of course, throughout the massive bear
market rally from the March 2009 lows, which the ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter predicted via the March 2, 2009 Trend Change Alert, the
newsletter maintained that it was only a bear market trap which would fool a
majority of investors. On April 16 it stated that 'Most bulls have no clue why
they are bullish except for the fact that they feel the need to play the
momentum game. Sounds like 2000 and 2007 all over again. The message conveyed
by the composite bullishness is unmistakably bearish.'
Rule #3: Don't Underestimate Cash
In a period of falling prices, cash or cash equivalents like short term
Treasuries (NYSEArca: SHY
- News) maintain your
purchasing power - long-term Treasuries (NYSEArca: TLT - News) are interest rate sensitive
and may move faster than you think. When stocks fall and you are able to
maintain your purchasing power, you are able to buy stocks at a discount. In
essence, cash offers a positive return in periods of falling prices.
Additionally, or alternatively, investors may choose to buy short or leveraged
short ETFs such as the Short S&P 500 ProShares (NYSEArca: SH - News), Short Dow30 ProShares
(NYSEArca: DOG - News) UltraShort S&P 500
ProShares (NYSEArca: SDS
- News), UltraShort Financial
ProShares (NYSEArca: SKF
- News), Direxion Daily
Financial Bear 3x Shares (NYSEArca: FAZ - News) and many more.
Rule #4: Don't Procrastinate
On May 14, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter predicted that the
S&P (NYSEArca: IVV -
News) will fall through the
important 1,040 resistance level. Aside from a small cluster of resistances
(one being round number resistance), a break below 1,040 opened the door wide
for significantly lower prices. We mentioned above that we've been preparing
for a reemerging bear market even before the April highs. Why? Simply put,
stocks are overvalued. How can that be? One of the above headlines read that
U.S. stocks are cheapest since 1990, at least according to analyst projections.
The key word is projections. Analysts project operating earnings for the
S&P to clock in at $94.83 in 2011. This is higher than the 2007 peak of
$91.47. That's right, despite record high unemployment, a European (NYSEArca: FEZ - News) debt crisis, a 17% U.S.
market correction, and all the other problems economists expect corporate
profits will exceed their 2007 all-time highs. Does that sound reasonable to
you? Keep in mind that projected earnings are just that - projected. They can
and will change. In fact, analysts have a reputation of following the trend. In
April 2008, analysts predicted earnings of $113. After cutting its forecast to
$53, Goldman Sachs cut its earnings forecast to $40 in March 2009. As we know
today, stocks rallied, and actual 2009 earnings came in at $56.87. The list
goes on, but the simple message is that analysts tend to be overly optimistic
before the fall and overly pessimistic before a rally. Right now they are
overly optimistic. The conclusion is easy.
Rule #5: Know who to Trust
EVEN WHEN BASING THE CURRENT P/E RATIO ON OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ESTIMATES, IT IS
STILL FAR AWAY FROM THE P/E RATIOS SEEN AT HISTORIC MARKET BOTTOMS. THE SAME
HOLDS TRUE FOR DIVIDEND YIELDS. A LOOK AT VARIOUS VALUATION MEASURES SHOWS THAT
THE MARKET IS OVERVALUED BY MUCH MORE THAN JUST 10 OR 20%. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter provides a detailed analysis of
four valuation metrics with a near spotless track record of historic
accuracy. The Newsletter also includes a target range for the ultimate
market bottom and the one chart that highlights the short-term bearish
potential. Will you head the warnings signs, or like farmer Doug trust that the
market won't fall on you?
DRUDGEREPORT: USA
marks 3rd-largest, single-day debt increase...
Deficit
hits $1 trillion in June for second year...
IMF
presses US to cut debt...
NSA
INTERNET GRAB; SPY AGENCY SHIFTS TO DOMESTIC EAVESDROPPING...
CIVIL
RIGHTS PANEL TO PURSUE FED PROBE IN BLACK PANTHER CASE...
RESET:
Russia slams Clinton for 'groundless' comments...
Mortgage Delinquencies Rising Again
as Home Prices Stay Flat...
Roubini: Banks Too Big to Fail, Too Big
to Bail Out...
COOKED APPLE: 103...
UPDATE:
MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE...
US v. AZ...
Banks
are Still at the Derivatives Casino (at Seeking Alpha) [video]
Washington's Bungled Bank Bailout (at TheStreet.com) ECRI Weekly Leading Index Growth Lowest in 13 Months Be on the Right Side of S&P Earnings Estimate Cuts
Inventory Cycle Has Run Its Course Harrison – ‘… This is the scenario I have been predicting for
months now.
David Rosenberg says the
ISM leads jobs. And, the latest jobs
numbers were weak.
I would be nonplused about the recent ISM data if it
weren’t
for the column highlighted in red. Notice how the momentum for everything is
slowing. Not just the overall index, but new orders, production and employment …’
DRUDGEREPORT: TORN ON FOURTH OF JULY: OBAMA
DIVIDES NATION...
Great Republic in parlous
state -- politically, economically...
YEAR 9: Petraeus in
Afghanistan warns of tough mission...
'We are in this to win' … Win
what? The fact of america’s defacto bankruptcy and being there IS failure no
matter what they ultimately call this debacle ...
Illinois Stops Paying Its
Bills...
Facing 'outright disaster'
amid budget crisis...
Turn On, Tune In...Nah, Just Drop Out … Discouraged workers at a new
cycle high And small wonder. The median unemployment duration went to a new
all-time high (since the 1940s, anyway, when that series begins) and shows no
signs of slowing its ascent … (Chart, source Bloomberg)…
NY
Times’ Krugman: We Are Entering The Third Depression Recessions are common; depressions are rare.
[Correction: we’re already in a depression].
This is a great
opportunity to SELL / TAKE PROFITS since this spike is based on b*** s*** alone and: ‘This is a global depression. This is a secular bear
market in a global depression. This was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a
secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes.’
A
Market Forecast That Says ‘Take Cover’ New York Times | We
have entered a market decline of staggering proportions — perhaps the biggest
of the last 300 years.
Should You Bear Market Proof Your Portfolio? , July 7, 2010: The
area was known to be an idyllic sanctuary. Snowcapped mountains, crystal clear
lakes, warm summers, a gentle autumn ... you get the picture. For nearly 180
years, Mount St. Helens remained silent, towering over the beautiful scenery
below. However, there were early warning signs pointing towards a potentially
catastrophic eruption of the volcano. Most viewed them as nothing more than hot
air (no pun intended). Doug, a farmer who lived close to the foot of the
mountain refused to evacuate. 'My mountain wouldn't do that to me' he said.
Less than 24 hours later, Doug and his farm were buried beneath 70 feet of mud
and volcanic debris.
What's the moral of this story?
1) Even subtle signs can foreshadow a significant event
2) Just because an event doesn't occur regularly doesn't mean it can't happen.
What does the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens have to do with the stock
market? More than you'd think.
Subtle Signs - Significant Results
Do you remember how stocks (NYSEArca: VTI - News) slowly but steadily inched
towards their April 26 highs? For nearly two months (from 2-26-10 to
4-15-10) the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) moved up without more than a 0.5% down day.
The picture for the Dow (DJI: ^DJI) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) looked
similar. Beneath the surface of rising prices, however, trouble was brewing. On
Wednesday, April 14, the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio dropped to 0.32, the lowest
reading in nearly two years and was 45% below its six-month average. On April
16, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter picked up the subtle put/call
ratio warning signal and published this cautionary note: 'Only a minority of
equity positions are equipped with a put safety net. Once prices do fall and
investors do get afraid of incurring losses, the only option is to sell.
Selling, results in more selling. This negative feedback loop usually results
in rapidly falling prices.' The 22 trading days following the April 26 market
highs erased eight months worth of gains. Bear markets move much quicker than
bull markets.
Rule #1: Better too Early than too Late
When preparing for a bear market (we'll discuss in a moment why we have been
preparing for a bear market), it is prudent to start early. Anyone who sold
their long positions as early as September last year would be in a better
position than the buy-and hold crowd that is still clinging to their holdings.
Rule #2: Don't Trust Wall Street and the Media
By now, even the mainstream media is sensing that something might not be quite
right with the market's performance. However, there is still hope that the
second half of the year will get a lift from positive earning results. Before
you bet your money on that line of reasoning, consider the picture the media
painted days within the April 2010 market top.
April 19, 2010
'America is back - The remarkable tale of an economic turnaround' – Newsweek
'Recovery tilting to V-shape as profits prompts growth revision' – Bloomberg
April 25, 2010:
'U.S. stocks cheapest since 1990 on analyst estimates' – Bloomberg
'Technical Analysts see room to roll' - Wall Street Journal
April 27, 2010
'Greece contagion fears unfounded' – Reuters
May 3, 2010:
'Manufacturing in U.S. grows at fastest pace since 2004 as recovery gains
traction' – Bloomberg
Over the past two and a half months, the S&P (NYSEArca: SPY - News) and Dow (NYSEArca: DIA - News) have lost as much as 17%. A
20% loss is considered the mark of a new bear market. In essence, we are only
one bad day away from the next bear. Of course, throughout the massive bear
market rally from the March 2009 lows, which the ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter predicted via the March 2, 2009 Trend Change Alert, the
newsletter maintained that it was only a bear market trap which would fool a
majority of investors. On April 16 it stated that 'Most bulls have no clue why
they are bullish except for the fact that they feel the need to play the
momentum game. Sounds like 2000 and 2007 all over again. The message conveyed
by the composite bullishness is unmistakably bearish.'
Rule #3: Don't Underestimate Cash
In a period of falling prices, cash or cash equivalents like short term
Treasuries (NYSEArca: SHY
- News) maintain your
purchasing power - long-term Treasuries (NYSEArca: TLT - News) are interest rate sensitive
and may move faster than you think. When stocks fall and you are able to
maintain your purchasing power, you are able to buy stocks at a discount. In
essence, cash offers a positive return in periods of falling prices.
Additionally, or alternatively, investors may choose to buy short or leveraged
short ETFs such as the Short S&P 500 ProShares (NYSEArca: SH - News), Short Dow30 ProShares
(NYSEArca: DOG - News) UltraShort S&P 500
ProShares (NYSEArca: SDS
- News), UltraShort Financial
ProShares (NYSEArca: SKF
- News), Direxion Daily
Financial Bear 3x Shares (NYSEArca: FAZ - News) and many more.
Rule #4: Don't Procrastinate
On May 14, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter predicted that the
S&P (NYSEArca: IVV -
News) will fall through the
important 1,040 resistance level. Aside from a small cluster of resistances
(one being round number resistance), a break below 1,040 opened the door wide
for significantly lower prices. We mentioned above that we've been preparing
for a reemerging bear market even before the April highs. Why? Simply put,
stocks are overvalued. How can that be? One of the above headlines read that
U.S. stocks are cheapest since 1990, at least according to analyst projections.
The key word is projections. Analysts project operating earnings for the
S&P to clock in at $94.83 in 2011. This is higher than the 2007 peak of
$91.47. That's right, despite record high unemployment, a European (NYSEArca: FEZ - News) debt crisis, a 17% U.S.
market correction, and all the other problems economists expect corporate
profits will exceed their 2007 all-time highs. Does that sound reasonable to
you? Keep in mind that projected earnings are just that - projected. They can
and will change. In fact, analysts have a reputation of following the trend. In
April 2008, analysts predicted earnings of $113. After cutting its forecast to
$53, Goldman Sachs cut its earnings forecast to $40 in March 2009. As we know
today, stocks rallied, and actual 2009 earnings came in at $56.87. The list
goes on, but the simple message is that analysts tend to be overly optimistic before
the fall and overly pessimistic before a rally. Right now they are overly
optimistic. The conclusion is easy.
Rule #5: Know who to Trust
EVEN WHEN BASING THE CURRENT P/E RATIO ON OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ESTIMATES, IT IS
STILL FAR AWAY FROM THE P/E RATIOS SEEN AT HISTORIC MARKET BOTTOMS. THE SAME
HOLDS TRUE FOR DIVIDEND YIELDS. A LOOK AT VARIOUS VALUATION MEASURES SHOWS THAT
THE MARKET IS OVERVALUED BY MUCH MORE THAN JUST 10 OR 20%. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter provides a detailed analysis of
four valuation metrics with a near spotless track record of historic
accuracy. The Newsletter also includes a target range for the ultimate
market bottom and the one chart that highlights the short-term bearish
potential. Will you head the warnings signs, or like farmer Doug trust that the
market won't fall on you?
ETF Data Daily: More Movement Out Of Equities ‘Investors kept moving
money out of equity ETFs on Tuesday, with the PowerShares QQQ (NasdaqGM:QQQQ - News) at the top of the
redemptions list in the latest sign that investors may be bracing for more
downside movement in stocks, according to data compiled by IndexUniverse.com.
They yanked almost $300 million out of QQQQ, with the SPDR S&P Midcap 400
(NYSEArca:MDY - News) and the SPDR S&P 500
ETF (NYSEArca:SPY - News) second and third on the
July 6 list with $187 million and $149 million in redemptions, the data showed.
On the flip side, investors poured another $74 million of new money into the
ProShares Short S&P 500 ETF (NYSEArca:SH - News) yesterday on top of more than
$300 million on Friday, July 2, also betting—but on the shorting side—that the U.S. equity
market is due for a decline. The ProShares fund was second in ETF creations
yesterday, edged out by the Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x (NYSEArca:FAS - News), a short-term trading
instrument that delivers investors three times the daily returns of the
underlying index made up of financial companies. FAS added just over $75
million. All told, the U.S. ETF industry saw $1.16 billion in net inflows on
Tuesday. Assets under management now stand at $776.66 billion …’
DRUDGEREPORT: NSA
INTERNET GRAB; SPY AGENCY SHIFTS TO DOMESTIC EAVESDROPPING...
CIVIL
RIGHTS PANEL TO PURSUE FED PROBE IN BLACK PANTHER CASE...
RESET:
Russia slams Clinton for 'groundless' comments...
Is
America Really Free, If A Privately-Owned Central Bank Controls Our Currency
And Runs Our Economy? This weekend
we celebrated America’s Independence Day. But are we
really a free nation? The truth is that it is really hard to argue that we are “free” when our currency system and our
economy are run by an unelected privately-owned central bank. TSA
To Block Websites With “Controversial
Opinions” The Transportation Security Administration
will block all websites that contain “controversial opinion” from its federal computers in the latest example of how
Internet censorship is expanding in both the private and public sector as the
federal government prepares to push through a power grab that will empower
President Obama to shut down the world wide web with an emergency decree.
With
the US trapped in depression, this really is starting to feel like 1932 Ambrose Evans-Pritchard | “All the booster rockets for getting us beyond it are
failing.” Global
Elites Struggle to Keep EU, Euro Intact James P. Tucker | Bilderberg members pushed hard in a frantic
attempt to save the euro during the recent weekend-long economic summit in
Toronto. Euro
Weakens, Bonds Rise on Trichet Austerity Comments; Stocks Fluctuate Bloomberg | The euro ended a three-day
winning streak and bonds rose after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude
Trichet urged “austerity” measures to contain budget deficits.
Banks
are Still at the Derivatives Casino (at Seeking Alpha) [video]
Washington's Bungled Bank Bailout (at TheStreet.com) ECRI Weekly Leading Index Growth Lowest in 13 Months Be on the Right Side of S&P Earnings Estimate Cuts
Inventory Cycle Has Run Its Course Harrison – ‘… This is the scenario I have been predicting for
months now.
David Rosenberg says the
ISM leads jobs. And, the latest jobs
numbers were weak.
I would be nonplused about the recent ISM data if it
weren’t
for the column highlighted in red. Notice how the momentum for everything is
slowing. Not just the overall index, but new orders, production and employment …’
DRUDGEREPORT: TORN ON FOURTH OF JULY: OBAMA
DIVIDES NATION...
Great Republic in parlous
state -- politically, economically...
YEAR 9: Petraeus in
Afghanistan warns of tough mission...
'We are in this to win' … Win
what? The fact of america’s defacto bankruptcy and being there IS failure no
matter what they ultimately call this debacle ...
Illinois Stops Paying Its
Bills...
Facing 'outright disaster'
amid budget crisis...
Turn On, Tune In...Nah, Just Drop Out … Discouraged workers at a new
cycle high And small wonder. The median unemployment duration went to a new
all-time high (since the 1940s, anyway, when that series begins) and shows no
signs of slowing its ascent … (Chart, source Bloomberg)…
NY
Times’ Krugman: We Are Entering The Third Depression Recessions are common; depressions are rare.
[Correction: we’re already in a depression].
EQUITIES RALLY FIZZLES Midnight Trader 4:17 PM, Jul 6, 2010 – ‘Here's
where markets stand at the close:
GLOBAL
SENTIMENT
NYSE INDEX
WATCH
UPSIDE
MOVERS
(+) WAG (+1%), June same-store sales rise 2%.
(+) GS (+1%), gets upgrade.
(+) JASO (+5.3%), inks supply deal with MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR).
(+) AUTC (+2.1%), leased vehicles rise 174% from a year earlier.
(+) PWER (+9.7%), buying back some convertible notes
DOWNSIDE MOVERS
(-) TGB (-13.3%), independent panel sees adverse effects from proposed project.
(-) SNWL (-3.6%), third party drops out of potential bidding war.
(-) YRCW (-13.2%), court orders payment to bondholders
MARKET DIRECTION
Stocks gave back most of their gains to close up only modestly as an early
rally fizzled on continued concerns about the strength of the economy. The
major indexes all dipped into the red late in regular-session trading before
bouncing back slightly in the last hour to close in the black. The DJIA had
jumped more than 170 points in the first hour of trading, but declined
throughout afternoon trade led lower by retail stocks ahead of Thursday's sales
reports. Retailers are scheduled to report June sales Thursday, and investors
are concerned that the weak economy deterred shoppers. Shares of Macy's (M) were down
about 2.5%, while Sears (SHLD) fell more 4% and Office Depot (ODP)
was 5% lower. Stocks initially rallied on the day in a reversal from last week
after data showed a surge in semiconductor sales, and positive news out of
China overshadowed a weaker than expected strength in the nation's service
sector. The Semiconductor Industry Association said global chip sales grew 4.5%
in May from the prior month, besting April's record for monthly sales. And
early in the session investors appeared to shrug off data that showed service
sector activity grew more slowly in June, according to the Institute for Supply
Management. The institute's index of non-manufacturing activity changed to to
53.8 last month, from 55.4 in May. Economists had expected a 54.9 level. In company
news, BP plc (BP)
shares rose 8.7%, including a late-day spike, after it reportedly said it
doesn't plan to issue new equity to cover the costs of the Gulf oil spill.
Speculation has been growing that the company was seeking private funding from
Middle East and Asian groups to stave off possible hostile takeover bids from
rivals. Anadarko Petroleum (APC) shares were briefly halted after
tripping an NYSE circuit breaker at midday. The trade of 200 shares at around
$100,000 a piece was quickly canceled. The company's shares traded higher
despite a Sunday New York Times report that BP, facing a stiff bill for the Gulf
of Mexico oil spill, would demand $272 million from Anadarko based on its 25%
ownership in the Macondo well. Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) signed
a deal with Dutch biotech firm Pharming to increase production capacity of its
drug Ruconest in an effort to trim costs in front of an expected launch in
Europe this year, Reuters reported. Pharming has struggled financially amid
delays in getting the drug approved in Europe, the report said. Genzyme (GENZ) fell
after The Wall Street Journal reported European regulators said they expect
shortages of GENZ's drug Fabrazyme, a treatment for Fabry disease, to last
through the year due to chronic production problems. The regulators added that
no new patients should be started on Fabrazyme and patients requiring smaller
doses of the drug be migrated to a rival product made by Shire PLC (SHPGY) called
Replagal. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) gave back some earlier gains with the
broader market, but remained in the black after receiving some favorable
attention from Wall Street. The firm landed an upgrade after more than a
half-dozen analysts downgraded the bank in recent weeks, according to a Reuters
report. JP Morgan analysts Kian Abouhossein and Delphine Lee raised Goldman
Sachs to Overweight from Neutral, pointing to the bank's strong Tier 1 capital
levels, among other favorable elements in the firm. Commodities fell with
equities in afternoon trading. Crude for August delivery had traded above $73
early in the session only to fall in the last hour to end down 0.2%, or $0.16,
to $71.98 a barrel on Nymex. Gold fell $12.60, or 1%, to $1,195010 an ounce.’
Economists,
Financial Experts: U.S. Is Trapped In 1932 Size Depression Following Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman’s declaration last week that the U.S. is in entering a
third period of great depression, more and more economists are following suit,
comparing the scale of the crisis to that of the early 1930s. Profits
and Moves Behind the Downturn The
Fed says US unemployment is likely to stay high for a long time, and that
justifies zero interest rates indefinitely.
Is
America Really Free, If A Privately-Owned Central Bank Controls Our Currency
And Runs Our Economy? This weekend
we celebrated America’s Independence Day. But are we
really a free nation? The truth is that it is really hard to argue that we are “free” when our currency system and our
economy are run by an unelected privately-owned central bank. TSA
To Block Websites With “Controversial
Opinions” The Transportation Security Administration
will block all websites that contain “controversial opinion” from its federal computers in the latest example of how
Internet censorship is expanding in both the private and public sector as the
federal government prepares to push through a power grab that will empower
President Obama to shut down the world wide web with an emergency decree.
With
the US trapped in depression, this really is starting to feel like 1932 Ambrose Evans-Pritchard | “All the booster rockets for getting us beyond it are
failing.” Global
Elites Struggle to Keep EU, Euro Intact James P. Tucker | Bilderberg members pushed hard in a frantic
attempt to save the euro during the recent weekend-long economic summit in
Toronto. Euro
Weakens, Bonds Rise on Trichet Austerity Comments; Stocks Fluctuate Bloomberg | The euro ended a three-day
winning streak and bonds rose after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude
Trichet urged “austerity” measures to contain budget deficits.
Officials say BP spill now hitting all Gulf states (AP) Clinton
ridiculously, preposterously criticizes Russia for occupying Georgia when they
are just vaguely following the american / israeli / nato paradigm and with far
less bloodshed (AP)
Banks
are Still at the Derivatives Casino (at Seeking Alpha) [video]
Washington's Bungled Bank Bailout (at TheStreet.com) ECRI Weekly Leading Index Growth Lowest in 13 Months Be on the Right Side of S&P Earnings Estimate Cuts
Inventory Cycle Has Run Its Course Harrison – ‘… This is the scenario I have been predicting for
months now.
David Rosenberg says the
ISM leads jobs. And, the latest jobs
numbers were weak.
I would be non-plussed about the recent ISM data if
it weren’t
for the column highlighted in red. Notice how the momentum for everything is
slowing. Not just the overall index, but new orders, production and employment …’
DRUDGEREPORT: TORN ON FOURTH OF JULY: OBAMA
DIVIDES NATION...
Great Republic in parlous
state -- politically, economically...
YEAR 9: Petraeus in
Afghanistan warns of tough mission...
'We are in this to win' … Win
what? The fact of america’s defacto bankruptcy and being there IS failure no
matter what they ultimately call this debacle ...
Illinois Stops Paying Its
Bills...
Facing 'outright disaster'
amid budget crisis...
Turn On, Tune In...Nah, Just Drop Out … Discouraged workers at a new
cycle high And small wonder. The median unemployment duration went to a new
all-time high (since the 1940s, anyway, when that series begins) and shows no
signs of slowing its ascent … (Chart, source Bloomberg).
Extended benefits and long periods of unemployment - which causes which? Taken
together, this paints the picture of an employment situation that is at best
treading water, but more realistically one that is marginally worsening. The
problem with the charts above aren’t the levels, per se – they are high, but six months from now they will still be
high. The problem of course is the trend, or rather the lack of any
sign that the trend is improving. I want to point out that this should not be
news. None of the economic trends that we track from month to month
is showing any sign of improving at this stage, and as I have pointed out
repeatedly the economy looks to be plodding along in just about the condition
it was in before Lehman’s bankruptcy, before the
government saved Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE), before
the Federal Reserve cut rates to zero, before the massive fiscal
stimulus was voted on. Vehicle sales: weak. Employment: weak. Manufacturing
output: good, but fading fast as the stimulus dollars fade. Construction, home
sales, confidence: weak, weak, weak. Retail Sales: weak. Leadership: yep, that
too …
NY
Times’ Krugman: We Are Entering The Third Depression Recessions are common; depressions are rare.
[Correction: we’re already in a depression].
JUNE UNEMPLOYMENT 9.5%... 125,000 JOBS LOST...
Rate dips as 652,000 give up
search...
Depressing...
[That’s why they’re called depressions (just kidding … but no laughing matter)
… At this rate, with all those lost
jobs and jobseekers no longer seeking those lost jobs that aren’t there, by
their calculations (9.5% the bright spot … riiiiight!) we should be at full
employment very soon … you can’t make this stuff up … really!].
U.S. Stock Market T. ROWE PRICE:
Week Ended July 2, 2010 - Stocks fell for the second week to round out their
first quarterly decline in over a year. The major indexes declined every day of
the week as investors grew increasingly concerned about the durability of the
economic recovery. Stocks fell particularly sharply on Tuesday, after the
Conference Board reported a sharp drop in consumer confidence in June and a
decline in its leading indicator of growth in the Chinese economy. Signs of
renewed weakening in the housing market despite mortgage rates being near
record lows weighed on sentiment as well, as an index of pending home sales in
May fell back to its lowest seasonally adjusted level since 2001. Investors
also worried about signs job growth was slowing. On Wednesday, payroll
processing firm ADP reported only a modest rise in June for its gauge of
private sector employment, and Thursday brought word of an unexpected rise in
weekly jobless claims. The Labor Department's broader payrolls report on Friday
showed an uptick in private-sector hiring in the month, but also the first
overall decrease in several months as thousands of temporary census jobs came
to an end. Investors were also discouraged by a larger-than-expected decline in
factory orders in May.
U.S. Stocks |
|||
Index |
Friday's Close |
Week's Change |
% Change |
DJIA |
9686.48 |
-457.33 |
-7.11% |
S&P 500 |
1022.58 |
-54.18 |
-8.30% |
NASDAQ Composite |
2091.79 |
-131.69 |
-7.82% |
S&P MidCap 400 |
702.29 |
-42.98 |
-3.36% |
Russell 2000 |
601.37 |
-41.72 |
-5.16% |
Dow Seven-Day Losing Streaks Yesterday we noted
that the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 trading above their 50-day
moving averages was down to levels not seen since the late 2008 collapse. Now
the Dow is on a 7-day losing streak, which also hasn't happened since late 2008
(10/9/08). There have been 32 prior 7-day losing streaks for the Dow over the
last 50 years. And just because the index has been down doesn't mean it's due
for a rally. Historically the index has been essentially flat on day 8, and
averaged a decline of 0.29% over the next week. The median change over the next
week is even worse at -0.92%, and gains over the next week have only occurred
31% of the time …
WALL ST WEEK AHEAD: BULLS ON THE RUN IN SHORTENED WEEK July 2 (Reuters) - Bearish bets in the equity options market, coupled with an increasingly sour view from a technical perspective, suggest stocks will struggle to break from a vicious two-month downtrend next week. With few catalysts on tap, it could be difficult for investors to find a reason to buy even as recent declines and a jobs report that didn't confirm investors' worst fears present the opportunity for a short-term boost. Markets will be closed on Monday for Independence Day, and the holiday is expected to depress volume during the week, making equities more vulnerable to large swings following the worst week for the S&P 500 in two months. "Only about 30 percent of stocks are above their 200-day moving averages, so the vast majority are on a downtrend," said Frank Gretz, a market analyst at Shields & Co in New York. "The market needs to prove itself with a rally on strong volume, and that's going to be hard to get with the holiday and the bad news we've seen creating more pessimism." For the week, the Dow fell 4.5 percent, the S&P lost 5 percent and the Nasdaq shed 5.9 percent. Over the past couple of months, markets have been beset with a string of negative data showing weaker-than-expected retail sales, consumer confidence and plunging home sales. The data was capped by Friday's weak payrolls report. BETTING ON DECLINES Options activity on exchange-traded funds (ETF) that tracks the S&P 500 benchmark and the Nasdaq suggest that investors are betting on further declines …
Ron
Paul: 114 Flip Flop on Audit The Fed Causing Bill to Fail 229 – 198 Ron
Paul’s attempt to audit the Federal Reserve, which was previously co-sponsored
by 320 members of the House (HR 1207), failed by a vote of 229-198. All
Republicans voted in favor of the measure with 23 Democrats crossing the aisle
to vote with Republicans. 122 co-sponsors of HR 1207, all Democrats, jumped
ship and voted against the measure. The Future of Audit the
Fed Congressman Ron Paul discusses
the latest in the efforts to get a full and complete audit of the Fed as well
as the future of Fed transparency. Like Congressman Paul says, we’ve
accomplished a lot of good with our movement, and there’s many reasons to be
optimistic for the future. Ditch
the Buck! Dollar demise ‘a matter of months’ A report by the United Nations says the American dollar should be
ditched as the main global reserve currency. It said that the global financial
meltdown has exposed systematic weaknesses, one of which is the reliance on the
greenback. G-20
is Relying on China To Drive the World Economy … But China Isn’t Looking So Hot
The G-20 is apparently relying on
China to drive the world economy.
Middle
class families face a triple whammy Edmund Conway |
Falling pensions, cuts and the banking crisis will impoverish many families.
NY
Times’ Krugman: We Are Entering The Third Depression Recessions are common; depressions are rare.
[Correction: we’re already in a depression].
JUNE UNEMPLOYMENT 9.5%... 125,000 JOBS LOST...
Rate dips as 652,000 give up
search...
Depressing...
[That’s why they’re called depressions (just kidding … but no laughing matter)
… At this rate, with all those lost
jobs and jobseekers no longer seeking those lost jobs that aren’t there, by
their calculations (9.5% the bright spot … riiiiight!) we should be at full
employment very soon … you can’t make this stuff up … really!].
U.S. Stock Market T. ROWE PRICE:
Week Ended July 2, 2010 - Stocks fell for the second week to round out their
first quarterly decline in over a year. The major indexes declined every day of
the week as investors grew increasingly concerned about the durability of the
economic recovery. Stocks fell particularly sharply on Tuesday, after the
Conference Board reported a sharp drop in consumer confidence in June and a
decline in its leading indicator of growth in the Chinese economy. Signs of
renewed weakening in the housing market despite mortgage rates being near
record lows weighed on sentiment as well, as an index of pending home sales in
May fell back to its lowest seasonally adjusted level since 2001. Investors
also worried about signs job growth was slowing. On Wednesday, payroll
processing firm ADP reported only a modest rise in June for its gauge of
private sector employment, and Thursday brought word of an unexpected rise in
weekly jobless claims. The Labor Department's broader payrolls report on Friday
showed an uptick in private-sector hiring in the month, but also the first
overall decrease in several months as thousands of temporary census jobs came
to an end. Investors were also discouraged by a larger-than-expected decline in
factory orders in May.
U.S. Stocks |
|||
Index |
Friday's Close |
Week's Change |
% Change |
DJIA |
9686.48 |
-457.33 |
-7.11% |
S&P 500 |
1022.58 |
-54.18 |
-8.30% |
NASDAQ Composite |
2091.79 |
-131.69 |
-7.82% |
S&P MidCap 400 |
702.29 |
-42.98 |
-3.36% |
Russell 2000 |
601.37 |
-41.72 |
-5.16% |
Late 'Stick Save' Didn't Hold:
Dave's Daily - Dueling HAL 9000's were on full display Friday as stocks rose
and fell sharply early on disappointing news (NFP report and Factory Orders)
which was logical. But then (late in the day) the algo driven machines strutted
their stuff showing investors how broken markets are, rising and falling
sharply within a few minutes. So, the "casino-like" algo driven
environment continues. To be sure, with late volume light as traders fled for
distant vacation environments, they forgot to turn HAL off making a mockery of
trading. Seriously, the news for the past few weeks overall has been
terrible. You don't need me to regurgitate this litany of crummy news. Some
will say stocks are cheap but that would be misleading as earnings revisions
are underway compromising that argument …
IN EQUITIES, TOPSY-TURVY CLOSE LEAVES DOW LOSING STREAK AT SEVEN
- Midnight Trader 4:20 PM, Jul 2, 2010 -- Here's
where markets stand at the close:
GLOBAL
SENTIMENT
MID-DAY
NYSE INDEX WATCH
NYSE Energy up 0.47% at 9,360.21
NYSE Financial down 0.67% at 4,251.42
NYSE Health Care down 0.33% at 5,712.12
NYSE Arca Tech 100 down 0.24% at 840.49
UPSIDE MOVERS
(+) ARNA (+8.43%), higher on upgrade.
(+) MEND (+4.74%), being added to S&P SmallCap 600 Index.
(+) PT (0.00%), gets upgrade.
DOWNSIDE MOVERS
(-) HLX (-7.4%), down after updates on oil and gas divestments efforts and
mid-year reserves.
(-) SNY (-3.2%), down after declining to comment on report it was preparing an
acquisition of $20 billion or more in the United States.
MARKET DIRECTION
Stocks end trading lower in a topsy-turvy last 15 minutes of trading that saw
all major indices break into positive territory only to sink lower in a last
minute slide. Disappointing jobs data and a manufacturing report showed mixed
signals about the economy and set the tone for the entire session. Non-farm
payrolls fell 125,000 in June. Economists polled by Thomson Reuters forecast
employers cut 110,000 jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 9.5%, versus
expectations for 9.8%. There also was an 83,000 increase in private payrolls in
June, lower than economists estimated. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said
orders for manufactured goods decreased 1.4% in May. It was the biggest drop
since March 2009. Allergan (AGN) and Biogen (BIIB)
are higher as analysts speculate that Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) might
be interested in buying one of those companies. SNY declined to comment on
Friday on a Bloomberg report that it was preparing an acquisition of $20
billion or more in the United States. SNY reportedly is actively looking for
acquisitions to find new sources of growth as its own product pipeline is
drying out and some research projects have been pulled. Delta Air Lines (DAL) and US Airways (LCC)
plan to sue the government, claiming it has no power to block a deal to let
them swap landing and takeoff slots at airports in Washington and New York.
Regulators demanded the two airlines give some of the slots to rivals,
MarketWatch reported. To get US Air slots at LaGuardia in New York, Delta
wanted to trade its slots at Reagan National in Washington, according to the
AP. InterContinental Exchange (ICE) is down despite reporting
record futures volume and average daily volume (ADV) for Q2. Futures ADV
increased 36%, including year-over-year growth of 24% for the month of June
2010. ICE also achieved record average daily commissions (ADC) of $1.43 million
in its OTC energy business during the second quarter of 2010, up 26% from the
prior Q2, it said. Shares of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) finished higher after Biglari
Holdings (BH) said it holds a 6% stake in the
restaurant chain, MarketWatch reported. Google (GOOG) shares
were lower on news the Internet search company plans to buy ITA Software, one
of Web's key providers of airline travel technology, according to a Reuters
report. The buy could potentially stoke antitrust concerns among regulators,
the report said. Google reportedly says the move will improve the way consumers
find flight information online. BP Plc's (BP) first relief
well aimed at plugging its Gulf of Mexico gusher is seven to eight days ahead
of schedule to intercept and eventually stop the biggest oil leak in U.S.
history. The target for intercepting the leaking well and pumping in mud and
cement to permanently seal it is still mid-August, U.S. National Incident
Commander Thad Allen said today on a conference call with reporters. The well
is within 600 feet (182 meters) of intercepting the leak, he said. Crude-oil
for August delivery ended down 1.1%, or $0.82, to $72.14 a barrel on the New
York Mercantile Exchange. Gold for August delivery rose $1, or 0.1%, to
$1,207.70 an ounce.
Dow Seven-Day Losing Streaks Yesterday we noted
that the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 trading above their 50-day
moving averages was down to levels not seen since the late 2008 collapse. Now
the Dow is on a 7-day losing streak, which also hasn't happened since late 2008
(10/9/08). There have been 32 prior 7-day losing streaks for the Dow over the
last 50 years. And just because the index has been down doesn't mean it's due
for a rally. Historically the index has been essentially flat on day 8, and
averaged a decline of 0.29% over the next week. The median change over the next
week is even worse at -0.92%, and gains over the next week have only occurred
31% of the time …
WALL ST WEEK AHEAD: BULLS ON THE RUN IN SHORTENED WEEK July 2 (Reuters) - Bearish bets in the equity options market, coupled with an increasingly sour view from a technical perspective, suggest stocks will struggle to break from a vicious two-month downtrend next week. With few catalysts on tap, it could be difficult for investors to find a reason to buy even as recent declines and a jobs report that didn't confirm investors' worst fears present the opportunity for a short-term boost. Markets will be closed on Monday for Independence Day, and the holiday is expected to depress volume during the week, making equities more vulnerable to large swings following the worst week for the S&P 500 in two months. "Only about 30 percent of stocks are above their 200-day moving averages, so the vast majority are on a downtrend," said Frank Gretz, a market analyst at Shields & Co in New York. "The market needs to prove itself with a rally on strong volume, and that's going to be hard to get with the holiday and the bad news we've seen creating more pessimism." For the week, the Dow fell 4.5 percent, the S&P lost 5 percent and the Nasdaq shed 5.9 percent. Over the past couple of months, markets have been beset with a string of negative data showing weaker-than-expected retail sales, consumer confidence and plunging home sales. The data was capped by Friday's weak payrolls report. BETTING ON DECLINES Options activity on exchange-traded funds (ETF) that tracks the S&P 500 benchmark and the Nasdaq suggest that investors are betting on further declines …
Ron
Paul: 114 Flip Flop on Audit The Fed Causing Bill to Fail 229 – 198 Ron
Paul’s attempt to audit the Federal Reserve, which was previously co-sponsored
by 320 members of the House (HR 1207), failed by a vote of 229-198. All
Republicans voted in favor of the measure with 23 Democrats crossing the aisle
to vote with Republicans. 122 co-sponsors of HR 1207, all Democrats, jumped
ship and voted against the measure. The Future of Audit the
Fed Congressman Ron Paul discusses
the latest in the efforts to get a full and complete audit of the Fed as well
as the future of Fed transparency. Like Congressman Paul says, we’ve
accomplished a lot of good with our movement, and there’s many reasons to be
optimistic for the future. Ditch
the Buck! Dollar demise ‘a matter of months’ A report by the United Nations says the American dollar should be
ditched as the main global reserve currency. It said that the global financial
meltdown has exposed systematic weaknesses, one of which is the reliance on the
greenback. G-20
is Relying on China To Drive the World Economy … But China Isn’t Looking So Hot
The G-20 is apparently relying on
China to drive the world economy.
Middle
class families face a triple whammy Edmund Conway |
Falling pensions, cuts and the banking crisis will impoverish many families.
The following are 50 random facts that
show just how dramatically america has changed….
#50)
A new report released by the United Nations is publicly calling for the establishment of a world
currency and none of the major news networks are even
covering it.
#49) Arnold Schwarzenegger has
ordered California State Controller John Chiang to reduce state worker pay for
July to the federal minimum allowed by law — $7.25 an hour for most
state workers.
#48) A police
officer in Oklahoma recently tasered an 86-year-old disabled grandma in her bed
and stepped on her oxygen hose until she couldn’t breathe
because they considered her to be a “threat”.
#47) In early
2009, U.S. net national savings as a percentage of GDP went negative for the first time since
1952, and it has continued its downward trend since then.
#46) Corexit 9500 is
so incredibly toxic that the UK’s Marine
Management Organization has completely banned it, so if there was a major
oil spill in the North Sea, BP would not be able to use it.
And yet BP has dumped over a million gallons of dispersants such as Corexit
9500 into the Gulf of Mexico.
#45) For the first
time in U.S. history, more than 40 million Americans are on food stamps,
and the U.S. Department of Agriculture projects that number will go up to 43
million Americans in 2011.
#44) It has come out
that one employee used a Federal Emergency Management Agency credit card to buy $4,318 in “Happy Birthday” gift cards. Two other FEMA officials charged the
cost of 360 golf umbrellas ($9,000) to the taxpayers.
#43) Researchers at
the State University of New York at Buffalo received $389,000 from the
U.S. government to pay 100 residents of Buffalo $45 each to record how much malt liquor they drink and how much
pot they smoke each day.
#42) The average
duration of unemployment in the United States has risen to an all-time high.
#41) The bottom 40
percent of all income earners in the United States now collectively own less than 1 percent of the nation’s
wealth.
#40) In the U.S., the
average federal worker now earns about twice as much as the average
worker in the private sector.
#39) Back in 1950 each
retiree’s Social Security benefit was paid
for by 16 workers. Today, each retiree’s
Social Security benefit is paid for by approximately 3.3 workers.
By 2025 it is projected that there will be approximately two workers
for each retiree.
#38) According to a
U.S. Treasury Department report to Congress, the U.S. national debt will top
$13.6 trillion this year and climb to an estimated $19.6 trillion by 2015.
#37) The federal
government actually has the gall to ask for online
donations that will supposedly go towards paying off the national
debt.
#36) The Cactus Bug
Project at the University Of Florida was allocated $325,394 in
economic stimulus funds to study the mating decisions of cactus bugs.
#35) A dinner cruise
company in Chicago got nearly $1 million in economic stimulus funds to combat terrorism.
#34) It is being
reported that a 6-year-old girl from Ohio is
on the “no fly” list
maintained by U.S. Homeland Security.
#33) During the first
quarter of 2010, the total number of loans that are at least three months past
due in the United States increased for the 16th consecutive quarter.
#32) According to a
new report, Americans spend twice as much as residents of other
developed countries on healthcare, but get lower quality and far less
efficiency.
#31) Some experts are
warning that the cost of bailing out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could reach as high as $1 trillion.
#30)
The FDA has announced that the offspring of cloned animals could be in our food
supply right now and that there is nothing that they can do about
it.
#29) In May, sales of
new homes in the United States dropped to the lowest level ever recorded.
#28) In 1950, the
ratio of the average executive’s paycheck to the average worker’s
paycheck was about 30 to 1. Since the year 2000, that ratio has
ranged between 300 to 500 to one.
#27) Federal border
officials recently said that Mexican drug cartels have not only set up shop on
American soil, they are actually maintaining lookout bases in
strategic locations in the hills of southern Arizona.
#26) The U.S.
government has declared some parts of Arizona off limits to U.S. citizens because of
the threat of violence from Mexican drug smugglers.
#25) According to the credit card repayment calculator, if you
owe $6000 on a credit card with a 20 percent interest rate and only pay the
minimum payment each time, it will take you 54 years to pay off that credit
card. During those 54 years you will pay $26,168 in interest
rate charges in addition to the $6000 in principal that you are required to pay
back.
#24) According to
prepared testimony by Goldman Sachs Chief Operating Officer Gary Cohn, Goldman
Sachs shorted roughly $615 million of
the collateralized debt obligations and residential mortgage-backed securities
the firm underwrote since late 2006.
#23) The six biggest banks in the United States now
possess assets equivalent to 60 percent of America’s
gross national product.
#22) Four of the
biggest U.S. banks (Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and
Citigroup) had a “perfect quarter”
with zero days of trading losses during the
first quarter of 2010.
#21) 1.41 million
Americans filed for personal bankruptcy in 2009 – a 32 percent increase over 2008.
#20) BP has
hired private security contractors
to keep the American people away from oil cleanup sites and nobody
seems to care.
#19) Barack
Obama is calling for a “civilian expeditionary force” to be sent to
Afghanistan and Iraq to help overburdened military troops build infrastructure.
#18) On June 18th, two
Christians decided that they would peacefully pass out copies of the gospel of
John on a public sidewalk outside a public Arab festival in Dearborn,
Michigan and within 3 minutes 8 policemen surrounded them and placed them under arrest.
#17) It is being
reported that sales of foreclosed homes in Florida made up nearly 40 percent of all
home purchases in the first part of this year.
#16) During
a recent interview with Larry King, former first lady Laura Bush
revealed to the world that she is actually in favor of legalized gay marriage
and a woman’s “right”
to abortion.
#15) Scientists at
Columbia University are warning that the dose of radiation from the new full
body security scanners going into airports all over the United
States could be up to 20 times higher
than originally estimated.
#14) 43 percent of Americans have less than $10,000
saved for retirement.
#13) The FDIC’s deposit
insurance fund now has negative 20.7 billion dollars in it,
which represents a slight improvement from the end of 2009.
#12) The judge that
BP is pushing for to hear an estimated 200 lawsuits on the Gulf of
Mexico oil disaster gets tens of thousands of dollars a
year in oil royalties and is paid travel expenses to industry
conferences.
#11) In recent years
the U.S. government has spent $2.6 million tax dollars to study the drinking habits of Chinese prostitutes and
$400,000 tax dollars to pay researchers to cruise six bars in Buenos
Aires, Argentina to find out why gay men engage in risky sexual behavior
when drunk.
#10) U.S. officials
say that more than three billion
dollars in cash (much of it aid money paid for by U.S. taxpayers)
has been stolen by corrupt officials in Afghanistan and flown out of Kabul
International Airport in recent years.
#9) According to a
report by the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of
Transportation Statistics, the baggage check fees collected by U.S. airlines shot up 33% in the first
quarter of 2010 to $769 million.
#8) Three California
high school students are fighting for their right to show their American
patriotism - even on a Mexican holiday - after they were forced to remove
their American flag T-shirts on Cinco de Mayo.
#7) Right now,
interest on the U.S. national debt and spending on entitlement programs like
Social Security and Medicare are somewhere in the neighborhood of 10
to 15 percent of GDP. By 2080, they are projected to eat up approximately 50 percent of GDP.
#6) The total of all
government, corporate and consumer debt in the United States is now about 360 percent of GDP.
#5) A 6-year-old
girl was recently handcuffed and sent to
a mental facility after throwing temper tantrums at her
elementary school.
#4) In Florida,
students have been arrested by police for things as
simple as bringing a plastic butter knife to school, throwing an eraser,
and drawing a picture of a gun.
#3) School officials
in one town in Massachusetts are refusing to allow students to recite the Pledge of Allegiance.
#2) According
to one new study, approximately 21 percent of children in the United
States are living below the poverty line in 2010.
#1) Since 1973, more than 50 million babies have been
murdered in abortion facilities across the United States.
Drudgereport: JUNE UNEMPLOYMENT 9.5%... 125,000 JOBS LOST...
Rate dips as 652,000 give up
search...
Depressing...
[That’s why they’re called depressions (just kidding … but no laughing matter)
… At this rate, with all those lost
jobs and jobseekers no longer seeking those lost jobs that aren’t there, by
their calculations (9.5% the bright spot … riiiiight!) we should be at full
employment very soon … you can’t make this stuff up … really!].
New jobless claims rise
[again]...
'Surprise'...
Pending home sales plunge
record 30%...
Weak economic data suggest
'recovery' fizzling...
Fears mount over slowing
global demand...
UN committee calls for
dumping US dollar...
Six Months to Go Until the
Largest Tax Hikes in History...
From Ryan Ellis on
Thursday, July 1, 2010 4:15 PM
Read more: http://www.atr.org/six-months-untilbr-largest-tax-hikes-a5171##ixzz0sVN5aBH3
In just six months, the largest tax hikes in the history of America
will take effect. They will hit families and small businesses in three
great waves on January 1, 2011:
First Wave: Expiration of 2001 and 2003 Tax Relief
In 2001 and 2003, the GOP Congress enacted several tax cuts for investors,
small business owners, and families. These will all expire on January 1,
2011:
Personal
income tax rates will rise. The top income
tax rate will rise from 35 to 39.6 percent (this is also the rate at which
two-thirds of small business profits are taxed). The lowest rate will
rise from 10 to 15 percent. All the rates in between will also
rise. Itemized deductions and personal exemptions will again phase out,
which has the same mathematical effect as higher marginal tax rates. The
full list of marginal rate hikes is below:
- The 10% bracket rises to an expanded 15%
- The 25% bracket rises to 28%
- The 28% bracket rises to 31%
- The 33% bracket rises to 36%
- The 35% bracket rises to 39.6%
Higher
taxes on marriage and family. The “marriage
penalty” (narrower tax brackets for married couples) will return from the first
dollar of income. The child tax credit will be cut in half from $1000 to
$500 per child. The standard deduction will no longer be doubled for
married couples relative to the single level. The dependent care and
adoption tax credits will be cut.
The
return of the Death Tax. This year,
there is no death tax. For those dying on or after January 1 2011, there
is a 55 percent top death tax rate on estates over $1 million. A person
leaving behind two homes and a retirement account could easily pass along a
death tax bill to their loved ones.
Higher
tax rates on savers and investors. The capital
gains tax will rise from 15 percent this year to 20 percent in 2011. The
dividends tax will rise from 15 percent this year to 39.6 percent in
2011. These rates will rise another 3.8 percent in 2013.
Second Wave: Obamacare
There are over twenty new or higher taxes in Obamacare.
Several will first go into effect on January 1, 2011. They include:
The
“Medicine Cabinet Tax” Thanks to Obamacare,
Americans will no longer be able to use health savings account (HSA), flexible
spending account (FSA), or health reimbursement (HRA) pre-tax dollars to
purchase non-prescription, over-the-counter medicines (except insulin).
The
“Special Needs Kids Tax” This provision of
Obamacare imposes a cap on flexible spending accounts (FSAs) of $2500
(Currently, there is no federal government limit). There is one group of
FSA owners for whom this new cap will be particularly cruel and onerous:
parents of special needs children. There are thousands of families with
special needs children in the United States, and many of them use FSAs to pay
for special needs education. Tuition rates at one leading school that
teaches special needs children in Washington, D.C. (National Child Research Center) can easily
exceed $14,000 per year. Under tax rules, FSA dollars can be used to pay
for this type of special needs education.
The
HSA Withdrawal Tax Hike. This provision of
Obamacare increases the additional tax on non-medical early withdrawals from an
HSA from 10 to 20 percent, disadvantaging them relative to IRAs and other
tax-advantaged accounts, which remain at 10 percent.
Third Wave: The Alternative Minimum Tax and Employer Tax Hikes
When Americans prepare to file their tax returns in January of 2011, they’ll be
in for a nasty surprise—the AMT won’t be held harmless, and many tax relief
provisions will have expired. The major items include:
The
AMT will ensnare over 28 million families, up from 4 million last year.
According to the left-leaning Tax Policy Center, Congress’ failure to index
the AMT will lead to an explosion of AMT taxpaying families—rising from 4
million last year to 28.5 million. These families will have to calculate
their tax burdens twice, and pay taxes at the higher level. The AMT was
created in 1969 to ensnare a handful of taxpayers.
Small
business expensing will be slashed and 50% expensing will disappear.
Small businesses can normally expense (rather than slowly-deduct, or
“depreciate”) equipment purchases up to $250,000. This will be cut all
the way down to $25,000. Larger businesses can expense half of their
purchases of equipment. In January of 2011, all of it will have to be
“depreciated.”
Taxes
will be raised on all types of businesses.
There are literally scores of tax hikes on business that will take place.
The biggest is the loss of the “research and experimentation tax credit,” but there are many, many others. Combining
high marginal tax rates with the loss of this tax relief will cost jobs.
Tax
Benefits for Education and Teaching Reduced. The
deduction for tuition and fees will not be available. Tax credits for
education will be limited. Teachers will no longer be able to deduct
classroom expenses. Coverdell Education Savings Accounts will be
cut. Employer-provided educational assistance is curtailed. The
student loan interest deduction will be disallowed for hundreds of thousands of
families.
Charitable
Contributions from IRAs no longer allowed.
Under current law, a retired person with an IRA can contribute up to $100,000
per year directly to a charity from their IRA. This contribution also
counts toward an annual “required minimum distribution.” This ability
will no longer be there.
Read more: http://www.atr.org/six-months-untilbr-largest-tax-hikes-a5171##ixzz0sVMwYIhK
Investors get more gloomy & bearish We just
had a very difficult three month stretch for stocks. The S&P 500 fell
12% for the quarter as did NASDAQ. The Shanghai Composite, China’s largest stock index, fell 22.9 in its local currency, the
yuan. The MSCI EAFE Index (foreign stocks) was down 14%. Given the
negative news, it is not surprising that investors are becoming more bearish on
stocks. This chart from Bespoke is based on the weekly Investors
Intelligence survey, which is getting close to levels from a year
ago. This is not close the peak we reached in early 2009, but the mood is
definitely more negative now: [chart]
Double Dip on the Way There were many events contributing to yesterday’s
sell-off, and the most likely culprits around the globe included more protests
in Greece, continued to concerns about Europe at large, and a downward revision
(due to a calculation error) of a leading economic indicator reading in China
for the month of April. But when it comes down to it, our own economy has yet
to stand on solid ground. While
the recovery has continued to be shaky at best, recent economic readings may be
pointing to a double dip recession. Yesterday’s batch of economic data seemed
to be confirming that, as it brought a very dismal reading on consumer
confidence. June’s number stood at 52.9, far below expectations of 62.5, and
pointing to the consumers’ weariness about the job market, and economic
recovery in general. To go further, the previous reading for May was revised
downward, to 62.7 from 63.3. But the drop from May to June really sends the
message home: we’re not out of the woods yet. Earlier in the week, we saw
personal savings rates rise again, even while personal income growth was
meager. Americans, despite bringing home a little more cash, continued to save
more for the expected rainy days, and have yet to return to their spendthrift
ways. After yesterday’s precipitous selling, one would expect to see a bit of a
bounce in today’s trading session. That wasn’t the case, however, as more weak
data continued to dampen economic hopes. Today’s culprit was the ADP private
sector job report. The report stated that private payroll gains were muted in
June, with only 13,000 jobs added – far less than the 60,000 expected by
economists. While May’s reading was revised slightly upwards (to 57,000 hires
from previously reported 55,000), today’s release does not bode well for the
much anticipated report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics due out on Friday.
The non-farms payroll survey includes government workers and has been inflated
in recent months due to hiring for the 2010 Census … [chart] …The June report,
however, will reflect many of those workers being laid off in the past month.
In May, 431,000 jobs were added, but without support from temporary government
hires, economists are predicting job losses in June. Last week, consensus
estimates were for a loss of 70,000 jobs for the month. By yesterday, those
estimates were downgraded further, to 110,000. With the help of today’s ADP
report, expectations have continued to fall: economists now expect a reading of
negative 125,000 …
Barron's: Why the Market Will Keep Sliding Perry D- Barron's
has a nice summary of what the future may hold in its
"Up and Down Wall Street." It summarizes as well as anything I've
read recently where we're likely headed. Bugging the (stock) market is the
increasingly obvious disparity between what the Street's incorrigible cheerleaders
see and prophesy and what's actually happening in the real world...The double
dip in housing may or may not be a template of what's in store for the economy
as a whole. But at the very least, it is a precursor of other serious
disappointments destined to feed the unease among the jittery populace, which
most emphatically includes investors.
It cites the
predictions of SDK Captial's Dee Kessler:
--the
massive fiscal and monetary stimulus so liberally applied in 2008-2009 is
starting to run out of steam, with financial conditions tightening and leading
economic indicators pointing to a stretch of "anemic activity."
--"structural
headwinds," such as public and private deleveraging, higher taxes, greater
regulation and trade tensions.
--the
well-publicized woes of the European bloc, which accounts for 20% of the
world's GDP, as further evidence that the global economy, as he puts it, is
downshifting.
--The
period of easy comparisons in corporate results, he says, is coming to a close,
--"Although
the fundamentals in the U.S., Europe and Japan are worse," Dee spots
plenty of downside in emerging markets and doesn't fancy the notion of
decoupling.
--Come
another financial crisis, "the only policy response left will be to print
money." Which, of course, is what the gold bugs are counting on and why
bullion has glistened so brightly.
That
about sums up the outlook. The nice insight here is that anxiety over future
economic malaise -- and the additional money printing that'll be done to mask
it -- might be a bigger factor than current inflationary pressure behind the
surge in gold prices.
In
other words, for the deflation-believers: deflation today? Perhaps. But
big-time inflation tomorrow.
Disclosure:
No positions
NY
Times’ Krugman: We
Are Entering The Third Depression Recessions are common; depressions are rare. [Correction: we’re already
in a depression].
Stocks: Once More Up, Then the Big Down Smith -The ingredients for a classic head
and shoulders topping pattern in the stock market are all present. That
suggests one more rise and then a massive grinding move down to 2009 lows.
Officially, of course, everything's peachy with the economy. Europe is fixed,
China is booming, consumer confidence is rising, and we are encouraged to
resume our borrow and spend ways as the economy will not "double-dip"
into recession. The economy will not slide into another recession, we are
reassured constantly, even though roughly 80% of Americans don't think we ever
left the recessionary quicksand. Please
see "Two
Scoop Special": Double-Dip Recession Guaranteed (May 21, 2010) for
more … Exactly what drivers are there for future gains in
corporate profits? I can't think of any, short of Martians landing and going on
a shopping spree with gold they manufacture in their spacecraft. On the
negative side, we have:
1. The rising dollar is a huge headwind to sales in
the eurozone and elsewhere.
2. The low-hanging fruit of pushing the workforce to produce more output for
the same salary/wages have all been picked.
3. The inventory build-out is done for everything but the iPhone 4 and iPad.
4. So-called "fiscal austerity" (when did living within one's means
become some sort of brutual "austerity"? Talk abour propaganda!) in
the eurozone and U.S. states will remove tens of billions of dollars from
corporate sales.
5. Global overcapacity is alive and well. There is overcapacity in everything
manufactured except the iPhone 4, and that will be in glut by 2011 as well.
6. Uncle Sam is not distributing trillions of dollars quite as freely. There
seems to be some glimmer of awareness that there could be consequences of
squandering trillions of borrowed dollars on essentially worthless projects
such as occupying Iraq, inflating the housing market by socializing the entire
mortgage market, propping up Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA, etc.
7. Housing is rolling over now that the socialized mortgage market has been
tentatively allowed to go off life-support (it is wheezing and turning blue in
the face, not signs of vibrant health).
8. There is no pricing power anywhere once stimulus-goosed demand declines to
organic demand (flat to down) …
Momentum Book Update: The Market Is a Mess and the Long Bond Is
About to Break Out … Not only do us
swing traders have to fight the urge to chase price action up, but lay off the
keyboard trying to catch falling knives in the relative strength stocks which
are holding up. If you tried to buy support in your favorite names this week,
you got your hands cut up. I’ll continue to rely on the understanding
of my own emotions as they have served me well. When we opened higher on Monday
morning I knew I was in the right place, cash, as the market was just way
overbought. If you bought most relative strength names last week, by the end of
this week you were well underwater. So where do we go from here? I’ve got no clue, the market is a mess, the charts are a
mess, and the long bond is about to break out. If that happens all bets are
off, we could see an “event”. If the smart money is lining up at the exits and moving
into bonds, there’s a good chance they see something
coming down the pipe …
SUITING UP FOR A POST-DOLLAR WORLD John Browne ‘The global financial crisis is
playing out like a slow-moving, highly predicable stage play. In the current
scene, Western governments are caught between the demands of entitled welfare
beneficiaries and the anxiety of bondholders who fear they will be stuck with
the bill. As the crisis reaches an apex, prime ministers and presidents are
forced into a Sophie's choice between social unrest and bankruptcy. But with
the "Club Med" economies set to fall like dominoes, the US Treasury
market is not yet acting the role we would have anticipated. Our argument has
always been that the US benefits from its reserve-currency status, allowing it
to accumulate unsustainable debts for an unusually long period without the
immediate repercussions of inflation or higher borrowing costs. But this false
sense of security may be setting us up for a truly monumental crash. There is
fresh evidence that time is running out for the dollar-centric global monetary
order. In fact, central banks outside the US are already making swift and
discrete preparation for a post-dollar era.To begin, the People's Bank of China
has just this week decided to permit a wider trading range between the yuan and
the dollar. This is the first step toward ending the infernal yuan-dollar peg.
While the impetus behind this abrupt change remains a mystery, I have a
sneaking suspicion that, as my colleague Neeraj Chaudhary explained in his commentary
last week, the nationwide labor strikes were a prime motivator. In response to
the 2008 credit crunch, the Fed printed so many dollars that the People's Bank
of China was forced to drive Chinese inflation into double digits to maintain
the peg. The pain has fallen on China's workers, who have seen their wages
stagnate while prices for everything from milk to apartments have skyrocketed.
This week's move indicates that, regardless of its own policy motives, the
Communist Party can no longer afford to keep pace with the dollar's
devaluation. The result will be a shift in wealth from America to China, which
may trigger a long-anticipated run on the dollar, while creating investment
opportunities in China. Just days before China's announcement, Russian
President Dmitry Medvedev rattled his monetary sabre by telling the press of
his intention to lead the world toward a new monetary order based on a broad
basket of currencies. Giving strength to his claim, the Central Bank of Russia
announced that it would be adding Canadian and Australian dollars to its
reserves for the first time. Analysts suggest that the IMF may follow suit.
While Russia floats in the limbo between hopeless kleptocracy and emerging
economy, it does possess vast natural resources and a toe-hold in both Europe
and Asia. In other words, it will be a strategically important partner for
China as it tries to cast off dollar hegemony. Speaking of Europe, the major
powers there are moving toward a post-dollar world by rejecting President
Obama's calls to jump on America's debt grenade. The prescriptions coming from
Washington translate loosely to: our airship is on fire, so why don't you light
a candle under yours so that we may crash and burn together. Given that dollar
strength is largely seen as a function of euro weakness (as Andrew Schiff
discussed in our most recent newsletter,
debt troubles in the eurozone's fringe economies have created a distorted
confidence in the greenback. However, as you might imagine, Europe has higher
priorities than being America's fall guy. Led by an ever-bolder Germany, the
European states are wisely choosing not to throw themselves on our funeral
pyre, but to wisely clean house in anticipation of China's rise. In another
ominous sign for the dollar, the Financial Times reported Wednesday that after
two decades as net sellers of gold, foreign central banks have now become net
buyers. What's more, more than half of central bank officials surveyed by UBS
didn't think the dollar would be the world's reserve in 2035. Among the
predicted replacements were Asian currencies and the euro, but - by far - the
favorite was gold. This is supported by Monday's revelation by the Saudi
central bank that it had covertly doubled its gold reserves, just about a year
after China made a similar admission. There is no reason to assume these are
isolated incidents, or that the covert trade of dollars for gold doesn't
continue. To the contrary, this is compelling evidence that foreign governments
are outwardly supporting the status quo while quietly preparing for the
dollar's almost-inevitable devaluation. What people like Paul Krugman believe
to be a return to medieval economics may, in fact, be the wave of the future.
In peacetime, hardened troops will likely tolerate a blowhard general for an
extended period; but when the artillery opens up with live ordnance, an
ineffectual leader risks rapid demotion. The newspapers are now riddled with
hints that foreign governments have lost faith in Washington and the dollar
reserve system. It seems to me only natural that after a century of war,
inflation, and socialism, the next hundred years would belong to those people who
hold the timeless values of hard money and fiscal prudence. Unfortunately, our
policymakers are not those people.’
China's
Hu Jintao Says Group of 20 Must Coordinate to Consolidate Recovery Bloomberg … How about the G195
countries in the world collectively be considered in this task of
coordination owing to the abject failure of the so-called G20 which have in
lockstep coordination precipitated this global crisis including the war
mongering, war criminal acts of the so-called nato allies et als, particularly
the u.s., and as well the likes of war criminal nation israel which have never
avoided a contra-indicated, anti-recovery war / conflict they could contrive /
rationalize. The so-called G7, 8, 9, 20, etc., are a pathetic bunch of
incompetent vegetables / jokers / showmen / clowns.
The following is really the quintessential question and
issue, particularly in light of america’s defacto bankruptcy and international
law; but paramount humanitarian concerns alone would militate against america’s
current misguided course. Is Petraeus McChrystal’s Replacement or Obama’s? Paul Craig Roberts | All of
this drama is playing out despite the continuing lack of any valid reason for
the american invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan.
3 SIGNS OF A SUCKER RALLY AFTER EXAMINING
TECHNICAL EVIDENCE, SENTIMENT INDICATORS AND VARIOUS VALUATION METRICS, IT
BECOMES OBVIOUS THAT THE RECENT BOUNCE PROVIDES A SELLING, NOT BUYING
OPPORTUNITY ...’
Reports:
IAF Landed at Saudi Base, US Troops near Iran Border Arutz Sheva | The Israeli
Air Force recently unloaded military equipment at a Saudi Arabia base, a
semi-official Iranian news agency claimed Wednesday. It’s time for the world to
take a close look at the despotic, totalitarian regime that presently exists
for the grandeur and wealth of a few while hiding behind Islam as they betray
same and Muslims everywhere. The time has come for regime change in Saudi
Arabia to yield a nation of and for the people of Saudi Arabia and the glory of
Islam.
Falling Dollar, Falling Crude, Falling Gold...Falling Equities Drogen ‘…Correlations got crushed yesterday morning, which I
believe is why we saw the sell off in equities. Gold is getting smacked back
down below the 50 day moving average along with the US Dollar index. Crude is
getting eviscerated for more than 4% breaking down out of its big bear flag. The
economic numbers were awful again, and they will continue to get worse. The
liquidity fueled bounce in global assets is obviously over and we are seeing
longer term holders exit now. The question I will ask though, why did the
dollar fall yesterday on the news while the long bond surged and equities and
energy dropped? The answer I believe is that the economic data is getting so
bad that traders are starting to think Ben Bernanke may get back up in his
helicopter and start raining liquidity on this market again. The government is
afraid to hell that their reflation game is over. Maybe we get stimulus 2.0,
not that the first one did anything significant. Our government is panicking
and they really don’t have any good options. Europe
isn’t doing them any help by leaving
the reflation team for the austerity squad. Going even further, Bernanke doesn’t have a playbook for this part of the game. He knew
exactly what he needed to do at the bottom in 08-09 based on his study of the
Great Depression, but there is no good model to guide him on what to do after
the reflation has taken place. In my mind, he can either start printing a crazy
amount of money again and hyper inflate away the debt, or we are headed for a
long period of deflation a la Japan, the more likely scenario. So why is the
dollar falling? Well I think yesterday some people may have gotten it in their
mind that Bernanke and Obama may start up the printing presses again. What
doesn’t jive though, is the fact that
crude has not bounced. The real state of the economy, and the global economy
for that matter, is getting worse quickly…’
Economic Data Round-Up The Pragmatic Capitalist ‘No comments necessary here. The end of
government stimulus is revealing a very very weak private sector. It’s
almost unbelievable how weak this data is considering where we are from the
trough in economic output (via Trade The News):
·
(US)
Jun Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y: 39.4K v 38.8K prior; -47.1% v -65.1% prior
·
(US)
Initial Jobless Claims: 472K v 455Ke; Continuing Claims: 4.616M v 4.550Me
·
10:00
(US) Jun ISM Manufacturing: 56.2 v 59.0e; Prices paid: 57.0 v 70.0e
·
10:00
(US) May Construction Spending M/M: -0.2% v -0.8%e
·
10:00
(US) May Pending Home Sales M/M: -30.5%% v -14.2%e; Y/Y: -15.6%% v 24.6% prior
· (US) EIA Natural Gas Inventories: +60 bcf v +60 to +70 bcf estimate range
Typical Pause In the Recovery? Maybe
for Senile
Greenspun The
Inflation Trader ‘…That stocks are declining isn’t that surprising, in a sense; they
were discounting robust growth and there were many ways reality could fall short
of that expectation. It didn’t actually require a catalyst, merely gravity. However,
there have in fact been
catalysts, and the tea leaves have been surprisingly easy to read (so much so
that even Wall Street economists are now actually lowering their growth
forecasts although those forecasts still appear rosy in my view). Wednesday’s ADP was near consensus, but a shade
weak. In the current environment, given what was expected, “a shade weak” is going to draw more reaction than “a touch strong,” although economically speaking the
actual ADP was well within the error bar of the forecast – that is, we can’t really discern whether the underlying
trend is weakening or not from that data. But the misses are all starting to
add up on the same side. The ECB saw €442bln mature in the 12-month facility, but lent €161bln in 3-month, €198bln in 1-week, and €136bln in 6-day money; in other words,
there was net additional borrowing after the “withdrawal” of the 1y lending. Hmmm. Yesterday,
Initial Claims came out above expectations at 472k, continuing to bounce around
in the range while economists keep forecasting a breakout improvement. ISM
Manufacturing was 3 points below expectations, a pretty big miss in that
number, and Pending Home Sales were off 30%. Some of this was expected – the expiration of the home buyer
credit should of course lead to fewer homes being bought – but again, the misses are all on the
same side. To be sure, ISM at 56.2 is still at levels indicating expansion, but
vehicle sales were a weak 11.08mm units in June…again on the weak side. I guess I would
say there isn’t one catalyst, but
the data and events are collectively catalytic … Yesterday, former
Chairman Greenspan was on CNBC. This guy must have the greatest PR machine in
the world. His forecasts have been among the world’s worst, even when he was actually
controlling the policy levers that affected the outcomes. And yet, he still
gets on CNBC and in the papers with regularity. It’s astonishing. Yesterday he shared the
brilliant insight that this is just a “typical pause” in the recovery due to a “short-term fear factor” that keeps employers from hiring.
Seriously, in what way has anything about the last few
years been “typical”?
NARROWLY LOWER CLOSE EXTENDS DOW LOSING STREAK Midnight Trader 4:28 PM, Jul 1, 2010 --
GLOBAL SENTIMENT
UPSIDE MOVERS
(+) BP report says company secures
short-term financing.
(+) ARNA says Eisai to market company's
Lorcaserin following FDA approval.
(+) DELL upgraded.
(+) FDX upgraded.
(+) UPS upgraded.
(+) ISLE postpones stock offering.
(+) C says Treasury sells more shares.
DOWNSIDE MOVERS
(-) DNDN continues evening drop
(-) TASR guides for revenue miss.
(-) SNSS continues evening decline
after announcing private placement.
(-) HD slips despite upgrade.
(-) LOW slips despite upgrade.
MARKET DIRECTION
Stocks end modestly lower, dropping
0.3%-0.4% and well off earlier lows ahead of Friday's jobs report. Still, the
decline is enough to stretch the Dow's losing streak to six sessions. Oil and
the dollar are lower, while Treasury yields edged off the record lows hit
earlier this week.
Crude closes below $73 a barrel on
global growth worries. Gold fell $39.20 to finish at $1,206.70 an ounce.
A trio of economic reports largely
disappointed Wall Street though packed few surprises.
The Labor Department said initial
claims for jobless benefits climbed 13,000 last week to 472,000. Economists had
expected claims to fall.
The National Association of Realtors
said its measure of pending home sales declined to a new low in May after a
flurry of buying to take advantage of a tax credit that expired at the end of
April.
Finally, the Institute for Supply
Management reported its manufacturing index declined in June, though the
industry trade group said the sector seemed to still be expanding.
For Friday's early report, economists
polled by Thomson Reuters forecast that private employers added 112,000 jobs
last month. That would be far above the 41,000 added in May. The overall
unemployment rate is expected to rise to 9.8 percent from 9.7 percent in May.
In company news:
Shares of Bank of America (BAC) fell after the company said its First
Republic Bank had completed a management buyout, according to Reuters. The
purchase was reportedly completed with $1.86 billion in new equity from Colony
and General Atlantic, the report said.
Popular (BPOP) says it has entered into an agreement
and a plan of merger that contemplates funds managed by Apollo Management, L.P.
acquiring a 51% interest in BPOP's processing subsidiary, EVERTEC, and related
processing businesses, through the establishment of a joint venture. The new
joint venture is valued at approximately $900 million.
Apple Inc. (AAPL) is the target of a lawsuit over
reception problems with its new iPhone 4, Bloomberg reported. A Massachusetts
resident and New Jersey resident who bought the mobile phone filed complaints
in federal court in San Francisco, the report said, alleging unfair business
practices and false and misleading advertising. Another complaint was filed in
Maryland alleging Apple and wireless carrier AT&T Inc. (T) were negligent in marketing the phone, the
report said.
McDonald's (MCD) reportedly plans to rework its menu,
according to a Reuters report. In the move, McDonald's is slated to retire the
Big 'N' Tasty sandwich and add oatmeal to its national product selection,
reported Reuters, citing Crains Chicago Business. The company also expects to
discontinue its fruit and walnut salad.
Taser International Inc (TASR) declined after the company said it
anticipates that second quarter earnings will fall short of expectations. The
stun-gun maker sees sales in the second quarter reaching $18.5 million, while
analysts polled by FactSet Research had expected sales to reach $25.6 million.
The sales slump is seen as a result of sluggish sales overseas, and less funding
for law enforcement units in the United States.
Commodities were broadly lower while
gold for August delivery is down 2.03% to $1,220 an ounce and crude oil for
August delivery is down 3.87% to $72.67.
NY
Times’ Krugman: We Are Entering The Third Depression Recessions are common; depressions are rare.
[Correction: we’re already in a depression].
Drudgereport: New jobless claims rise
[again]...
'Surprise'...
Pending home sales plunge
record 30%...
Weak economic data suggest
'recovery' fizzling...
Fears mount over slowing
global demand...
UN committee calls for
dumping US dollar...
Six Months to Go Until the
Largest Tax Hikes in History...
From Ryan Ellis on Thursday, July 1, 2010 4:15 PM
Read more: http://www.atr.org/six-months-untilbr-largest-tax-hikes-a5171##ixzz0sVN5aBH3
In just six months, the largest tax hikes in the history of America
will take effect. They will hit families and small businesses in three
great waves on January 1, 2011:
First Wave: Expiration of 2001 and 2003 Tax Relief
In 2001 and 2003, the GOP Congress enacted several tax cuts for investors,
small business owners, and families. These will all expire on January 1,
2011:
Personal income tax rates will rise. The top income tax rate will rise
from 35 to 39.6 percent (this is also the rate at which two-thirds of small
business profits are taxed). The lowest rate will rise from 10 to 15
percent. All the rates in between will also rise. Itemized
deductions and personal exemptions will again phase out, which has the same
mathematical effect as higher marginal tax rates. The full list of
marginal rate hikes is below:
- The 10% bracket rises to an expanded 15%
- The 25% bracket rises to 28%
- The 28% bracket rises to 31%
- The 33% bracket rises to 36%
- The 35% bracket rises to 39.6%
Higher taxes on marriage and family. The “marriage penalty” (narrower tax
brackets for married couples) will return from the first dollar of
income. The child tax credit will be cut in half from $1000 to $500 per
child. The standard deduction will no longer be doubled for married
couples relative to the single level. The dependent care and adoption tax
credits will be cut.
The return of the Death Tax. This year, there is no death
tax. For those dying on or after January 1 2011, there is a 55 percent
top death tax rate on estates over $1 million. A person leaving behind
two homes and a retirement account could easily pass along a death tax bill to
their loved ones.
Higher tax rates on savers and investors. The capital gains tax will rise
from 15 percent this year to 20 percent in 2011. The dividends tax will
rise from 15 percent this year to 39.6 percent in 2011. These rates will
rise another 3.8 percent in 2013.
Second Wave: Obamacare
There are over twenty new or higher taxes in Obamacare.
Several will first go into effect on January 1, 2011. They include:
The “Medicine Cabinet Tax” Thanks to Obamacare, Americans will no
longer be able to use health savings account (HSA), flexible spending account
(FSA), or health reimbursement (HRA) pre-tax dollars to purchase
non-prescription, over-the-counter medicines (except insulin).
The “Special Needs Kids Tax” This provision of Obamacare imposes a
cap on flexible spending accounts (FSAs) of $2500 (Currently, there is no
federal government limit). There is one group of FSA owners for whom this
new cap will be particularly cruel and onerous: parents of special needs
children. There are thousands of families with special needs children in
the United States, and many of them use FSAs to pay for special needs
education. Tuition rates at one leading school that teaches special needs
children in Washington, D.C. (National Child Research Center) can easily
exceed $14,000 per year. Under tax rules, FSA dollars can be used to pay
for this type of special needs education.
The HSA Withdrawal Tax Hike. This provision of Obamacare increases
the additional tax on non-medical early withdrawals from an HSA from 10 to 20
percent, disadvantaging them relative to IRAs and other tax-advantaged
accounts, which remain at 10 percent.
Third Wave: The Alternative Minimum Tax and Employer Tax Hikes
When Americans prepare to file their tax returns in January of 2011, they’ll be
in for a nasty surprise—the AMT won’t be held harmless, and many tax relief
provisions will have expired. The major items include:
The AMT will ensnare over 28 million families, up from 4 million
last year.
According to the left-leaning Tax Policy Center, Congress’ failure to index
the AMT will lead to an explosion of AMT taxpaying families—rising from 4
million last year to 28.5 million. These families will have to calculate
their tax burdens twice, and pay taxes at the higher level. The AMT was
created in 1969 to ensnare a handful of taxpayers.
Small business expensing will be slashed and 50% expensing will
disappear.
Small businesses can normally expense (rather than slowly-deduct, or
“depreciate”) equipment purchases up to $250,000. This will be cut all
the way down to $25,000. Larger businesses can expense half of their
purchases of equipment. In January of 2011, all of it will have to be
“depreciated.”
Taxes will be raised on all types of businesses. There are literally scores of tax hikes
on business that will take place. The biggest is the loss of the
“research and experimentation tax credit,” but there are many, many others. Combining
high marginal tax rates with the loss of this tax relief will cost jobs.
Tax Benefits for Education and Teaching Reduced. The deduction for tuition and fees will
not be available. Tax credits for education will be limited.
Teachers will no longer be able to deduct classroom expenses. Coverdell
Education Savings Accounts will be cut. Employer-provided educational
assistance is curtailed. The student loan interest deduction will be
disallowed for hundreds of thousands of families.
Charitable Contributions from IRAs no longer allowed. Under current law, a retired person
with an IRA can contribute up to $100,000 per year directly to a charity from
their IRA. This contribution also counts toward an annual “required
minimum distribution.” This ability will no longer be there.
Read more: http://www.atr.org/six-months-untilbr-largest-tax-hikes-a5171##ixzz0sVMwYIhK
Investors get more gloomy & bearish We just
had a very difficult three month stretch for stocks. The S&P 500 fell
12% for the quarter as did NASDAQ. The Shanghai Composite, China’s largest stock index, fell 22.9 in its local currency, the
yuan. The MSCI EAFE Index (foreign stocks) was down 14%. Given the
negative news, it is not surprising that investors are becoming more bearish on
stocks. This chart from Bespoke is based on the weekly Investors
Intelligence survey, which is getting close to levels from a year
ago. This is not close the peak we reached in early 2009, but the mood is
definitely more negative now: [chart]
Double Dip on the Way There were many events contributing to yesterday’s
sell-off, and the most likely culprits around the globe included more protests
in Greece, continued to concerns about Europe at large, and a downward revision
(due to a calculation error) of a leading economic indicator reading in China
for the month of April. But when it comes down to it, our own economy has yet
to stand on solid ground. While
the recovery has continued to be shaky at best, recent economic readings may be
pointing to a double dip recession. Yesterday’s batch of economic data seemed
to be confirming that, as it brought a very dismal reading on consumer
confidence. June’s number stood at 52.9, far below expectations of 62.5, and
pointing to the consumers’ weariness about the job market, and economic
recovery in general. To go further, the previous reading for May was revised
downward, to 62.7 from 63.3. But the drop from May to June really sends the
message home: we’re not out of the woods yet. Earlier in the week, we saw
personal savings rates rise again, even while personal income growth was
meager. Americans, despite bringing home a little more cash, continued to save
more for the expected rainy days, and have yet to return to their spendthrift
ways. After yesterday’s precipitous selling, one would expect to see a bit of a
bounce in today’s trading session. That wasn’t the case, however, as more weak
data continued to dampen economic hopes. Today’s culprit was the ADP private
sector job report. The report stated that private payroll gains were muted in
June, with only 13,000 jobs added – far less than the 60,000 expected by
economists. While May’s reading was revised slightly upwards (to 57,000 hires
from previously reported 55,000), today’s release does not bode well for the
much anticipated report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics due out on Friday.
The non-farms payroll survey includes government workers and has been inflated
in recent months due to hiring for the 2010 Census … [chart] …The June report,
however, will reflect many of those workers being laid off in the past month.
In May, 431,000 jobs were added, but without support from temporary government
hires, economists are predicting job losses in June. Last week, consensus
estimates were for a loss of 70,000 jobs for the month. By yesterday, those
estimates were downgraded further, to 110,000. With the help of today’s ADP
report, expectations have continued to fall: economists now expect a reading of
negative 125,000 …
Barron's: Why the Market Will Keep Sliding Perry D- Barron's
has a nice summary of what the future may hold in its
"Up and Down Wall Street." It summarizes as well as anything I've
read recently where we're likely headed. Bugging the (stock) market is the
increasingly obvious disparity between what the Street's incorrigible
cheerleaders see and prophesy and what's actually happening in the real
world...The double dip in housing may or may not be a template of what's in
store for the economy as a whole. But at the very least, it is a precursor of
other serious disappointments destined to feed the unease among the jittery
populace, which most emphatically includes investors.
It cites the
predictions of SDK Captial's Dee Kessler:
--the
massive fiscal and monetary stimulus so liberally applied in 2008-2009 is
starting to run out of steam, with financial conditions tightening and leading
economic indicators pointing to a stretch of "anemic activity."
--"structural
headwinds," such as public and private deleveraging, higher taxes, greater
regulation and trade tensions.
--the
well-publicized woes of the European bloc, which accounts for 20% of the
world's GDP, as further evidence that the global economy, as he puts it, is
downshifting.
--The
period of easy comparisons in corporate results, he says, is coming to a close,
--"Although
the fundamentals in the U.S., Europe and Japan are worse," Dee spots
plenty of downside in emerging markets and doesn't fancy the notion of
decoupling.
--Come
another financial crisis, "the only policy response left will be to print
money." Which, of course, is what the gold bugs are counting on and why
bullion has glistened so brightly.
That
about sums up the outlook. The nice insight here is that anxiety over future
economic malaise -- and the additional money printing that'll be done to mask
it -- might be a bigger factor than current inflationary pressure behind the
surge in gold prices.
In
other words, for the deflation-believers: deflation today? Perhaps. But
big-time inflation tomorrow.
Disclosure:
No positions
NY
Times’ Krugman: We
Are Entering The Third Depression Recessions are common; depressions are rare. [Correction: we’re already
in a depression].
Stocks: Once More Up, Then the Big Down Smith -The ingredients for a classic head
and shoulders topping pattern in the stock market are all present. That
suggests one more rise and then a massive grinding move down to 2009 lows.
Officially, of course, everything's peachy with the economy. Europe is fixed,
China is booming, consumer confidence is rising, and we are encouraged to
resume our borrow and spend ways as the economy will not "double-dip"
into recession. The economy will not slide into another recession, we are
reassured constantly, even though roughly 80% of Americans don't think we ever
left the recessionary quicksand. Please
see "Two
Scoop Special": Double-Dip Recession Guaranteed (May 21, 2010) for
more … Exactly what drivers are there for future gains in corporate
profits? I can't think of any, short of Martians landing and going on a
shopping spree with gold they manufacture in their spacecraft. On the negative
side, we have:
1. The rising dollar is a huge headwind to sales in
the eurozone and elsewhere.
2. The low-hanging fruit of pushing the workforce to produce more output for
the same salary/wages have all been picked.
3. The inventory build-out is done for everything but the iPhone 4 and iPad.
4. So-called "fiscal austerity" (when did living within one's means
become some sort of brutual "austerity"? Talk abour propaganda!) in
the eurozone and U.S. states will remove tens of billions of dollars from
corporate sales.
5. Global overcapacity is alive and well. There is overcapacity in everything
manufactured except the iPhone 4, and that will be in glut by 2011 as well.
6. Uncle Sam is not distributing trillions of dollars quite as freely. There
seems to be some glimmer of awareness that there could be consequences of
squandering trillions of borrowed dollars on essentially worthless projects
such as occupying Iraq, inflating the housing market by socializing the entire
mortgage market, propping up Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA, etc.
7. Housing is rolling over now that the socialized mortgage market has been tentatively
allowed to go off life-support (it is wheezing and turning blue in the face,
not signs of vibrant health).
8. There is no pricing power anywhere once stimulus-goosed demand declines to
organic demand (flat to down) …
Momentum Book Update: The Market Is a Mess and the Long Bond Is
About to Break Out … Not only do us
swing traders have to fight the urge to chase price action up, but lay off the
keyboard trying to catch falling knives in the relative strength stocks which
are holding up. If you tried to buy support in your favorite names this week,
you got your hands cut up. I’ll continue to rely on the
understanding of my own emotions as they have served me well. When we opened
higher on Monday morning I knew I was in the right place, cash, as the market
was just way overbought. If you bought most relative strength names last week,
by the end of this week you were well underwater. So where do we go from here?
I’ve got no clue, the market is a
mess, the charts are a mess, and the long bond is about to break out. If that
happens all bets are off, we could see an “event”. If the smart money is lining up at the exits and moving
into bonds, there’s a good chance they see something
coming down the pipe …
SUITING UP FOR A POST-DOLLAR WORLD John Browne ‘The global financial crisis is
playing out like a slow-moving, highly predicable stage play. In the current
scene, Western governments are caught between the demands of entitled welfare
beneficiaries and the anxiety of bondholders who fear they will be stuck with
the bill. As the crisis reaches an apex, prime ministers and presidents are
forced into a Sophie's choice between social unrest and bankruptcy. But with
the "Club Med" economies set to fall like dominoes, the US Treasury
market is not yet acting the role we would have anticipated. Our argument has
always been that the US benefits from its reserve-currency status, allowing it
to accumulate unsustainable debts for an unusually long period without the
immediate repercussions of inflation or higher borrowing costs. But this false
sense of security may be setting us up for a truly monumental crash. There is
fresh evidence that time is running out for the dollar-centric global monetary
order. In fact, central banks outside the US are already making swift and
discrete preparation for a post-dollar era.To begin, the People's Bank of China
has just this week decided to permit a wider trading range between the yuan and
the dollar. This is the first step toward ending the infernal yuan-dollar peg.
While the impetus behind this abrupt change remains a mystery, I have a
sneaking suspicion that, as my colleague Neeraj Chaudhary explained in his commentary
last week, the nationwide labor strikes were a prime motivator. In response to
the 2008 credit crunch, the Fed printed so many dollars that the People's Bank
of China was forced to drive Chinese inflation into double digits to maintain
the peg. The pain has fallen on China's workers, who have seen their wages
stagnate while prices for everything from milk to apartments have skyrocketed.
This week's move indicates that, regardless of its own policy motives, the
Communist Party can no longer afford to keep pace with the dollar's
devaluation. The result will be a shift in wealth from America to China, which
may trigger a long-anticipated run on the dollar, while creating investment
opportunities in China. Just days before China's announcement, Russian
President Dmitry Medvedev rattled his monetary sabre by telling the press of
his intention to lead the world toward a new monetary order based on a broad
basket of currencies. Giving strength to his claim, the Central Bank of Russia
announced that it would be adding Canadian and Australian dollars to its
reserves for the first time. Analysts suggest that the IMF may follow suit.
While Russia floats in the limbo between hopeless kleptocracy and emerging
economy, it does possess vast natural resources and a toe-hold in both Europe
and Asia. In other words, it will be a strategically important partner for
China as it tries to cast off dollar hegemony. Speaking of Europe, the major
powers there are moving toward a post-dollar world by rejecting President
Obama's calls to jump on America's debt grenade. The prescriptions coming from
Washington translate loosely to: our airship is on fire, so why don't you light
a candle under yours so that we may crash and burn together. Given that dollar
strength is largely seen as a function of euro weakness (as Andrew Schiff
discussed in our most recent newsletter,
debt troubles in the eurozone's fringe economies have created a distorted
confidence in the greenback. However, as you might imagine, Europe has higher
priorities than being America's fall guy. Led by an ever-bolder Germany, the
European states are wisely choosing not to throw themselves on our funeral
pyre, but to wisely clean house in anticipation of China's rise. In another
ominous sign for the dollar, the Financial Times reported Wednesday that after
two decades as net sellers of gold, foreign central banks have now become net
buyers. What's more, more than half of central bank officials surveyed by UBS
didn't think the dollar would be the world's reserve in 2035. Among the
predicted replacements were Asian currencies and the euro, but - by far - the
favorite was gold. This is supported by Monday's revelation by the Saudi
central bank that it had covertly doubled its gold reserves, just about a year
after China made a similar admission. There is no reason to assume these are
isolated incidents, or that the covert trade of dollars for gold doesn't
continue. To the contrary, this is compelling evidence that foreign governments
are outwardly supporting the status quo while quietly preparing for the
dollar's almost-inevitable devaluation. What people like Paul Krugman believe
to be a return to medieval economics may, in fact, be the wave of the future.
In peacetime, hardened troops will likely tolerate a blowhard general for an
extended period; but when the artillery opens up with live ordnance, an
ineffectual leader risks rapid demotion. The newspapers are now riddled with
hints that foreign governments have lost faith in Washington and the dollar
reserve system. It seems to me only natural that after a century of war,
inflation, and socialism, the next hundred years would belong to those people
who hold the timeless values of hard money and fiscal prudence. Unfortunately,
our policymakers are not those people.’
China's
Hu Jintao Says Group of 20 Must Coordinate to Consolidate Recovery Bloomberg … How about the G195
countries in the world collectively be considered in this task of
coordination owing to the abject failure of the so-called G20 which have in
lockstep coordination precipitated this global crisis including the war
mongering, war criminal acts of the so-called nato allies et als, particularly
the u.s., and as well the likes of war criminal nation israel which have never
avoided a contra-indicated, anti-recovery war / conflict they could contrive /
rationalize. The so-called G7, 8, 9, 20, etc., are a pathetic bunch of
incompetent vegetables / jokers / showmen / clowns.
The following is really the quintessential question and
issue, particularly in light of america’s defacto bankruptcy and international
law; but paramount humanitarian concerns alone would militate against america’s
current misguided course. Is Petraeus McChrystal’s Replacement or Obama’s? Paul Craig Roberts | All of
this drama is playing out despite the continuing lack of any valid reason for
the american invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan.
NY
Times’ Krugman: We Are Entering The Third Depression Recessions are common; depressions are rare.
[Correction: we’re already in a depression].
Double Dip on the Way There were many
events contributing to yesterday’s sell-off, and the most likely culprits
around the globe included more protests in Greece, continued to concerns about
Europe at large, and a downward revision (due to a calculation error) of a
leading economic indicator reading in China for the month of April. But when it
comes down to it, our own economy has yet to stand on solid ground. While the recovery has continued to be shaky at best,
recent economic readings may be pointing to a double dip recession. Yesterday’s
batch of economic data seemed to be confirming that, as it brought a very
dismal reading on consumer confidence. June’s number stood at 52.9, far below
expectations of 62.5, and pointing to the consumers’ weariness about the job
market, and economic recovery in general. To go further, the previous reading
for May was revised downward, to 62.7 from 63.3. But the drop from May to June
really sends the message home: we’re not out of the woods yet. Earlier in the
week, we saw personal savings rates rise again, even while personal income
growth was meager. Americans, despite bringing home a little more cash,
continued to save more for the expected rainy days, and have yet to return to
their spendthrift ways. After yesterday’s precipitous selling, one would expect
to see a bit of a bounce in today’s trading session. That wasn’t the case,
however, as more weak data continued to dampen economic hopes. Today’s culprit
was the ADP private sector job report. The report stated that private payroll
gains were muted in June, with only 13,000 jobs added – far less than the
60,000 expected by economists. While May’s reading was revised slightly upwards
(to 57,000 hires from previously reported 55,000), today’s release does not
bode well for the much anticipated report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
due out on Friday. The non-farms payroll survey includes government workers and
has been inflated in recent months due to hiring for the 2010 Census … [chart]
…The June report, however, will reflect many of those workers being laid off in
the past month. In May, 431,000 jobs were added, but without support from
temporary government hires, economists are predicting job losses in June. Last
week, consensus estimates were for a loss of 70,000 jobs for the month. By yesterday,
those estimates were downgraded further, to 110,000. With the help of today’s
ADP report, expectations have continued to fall: economists now expect a
reading of negative 125,000 …
YAHOO
[BRIEFING.COM]: The stock market spent the session stuck in choppy trade with a
modest gain before it rolled over in the final hour to log another loss -- its
seventh in eight sessions. Stocks had dropped 3% in the prior session, but they
attempted a modest rebound this time around. The financial sector initially
showed leadership as bank stocks were boosted by news that the financial reform
bill's language regarding some $19 billion in new fees and taxes was removed.
Meanwhile, banks in Europe conveyed that recent liquidity concerns in the
continent may be a bit overdone, given that a recent short-term debt issuance
from European Central Bank was rather lightly subscribed. The financial sector
was up more than 1% in the early going, but that would inevitably reverse into
a 1.1% loss. Prior to a late downturn, the mood among market participants
appeared to have improved since the prior session's selloff. Still, the
improvement was restrained by a disappointing ADP Employment Change Report,
which showed that private payrolls for June increased by a paltry 13,000 when
an increase of 61,000 had been widely expected. That portends a dour monthly
jobs report from the government at the end of the week. Restrained gains
eventually gave way to another barrage of selling. In turn, all 10 major
sectors settled in the red …
Investors get more gloomy & bearish We just had a very difficult three month stretch for
stocks. The S&P 500 fell 12% for the quarter as did NASDAQ. The
Shanghai Composite, China’s largest stock index, fell 22.9
in its local currency, the yuan. The MSCI EAFE Index (foreign stocks) was
down 14%. Given the negative news, it is not surprising that investors are
becoming more bearish on stocks. This chart from Bespoke is based on the
weekly Investors Intelligence survey, which is getting close to levels
from a year ago. This is not close the peak we reached in early 2009, but
the mood is definitely more negative now: [chart]
Bottom Picking Not Allowed: Dave's Daily Bulls tried hard to get it together most of the day
encouraged early by news from Europe the ECB facility to handle stressed bank
demand saw less than expected. But strong headwinds showed up with a dreadful ADP
report which came in at 13K new jobs vs the street consensus of 75K.
Ouch! So after resting along the unchanged line most of the day, bulls threw in
the towel late and stock indexes cascaded
sharply lower in the last 40 minutes of trading. The critical support levels
mentioned yesterday for Dow Theorists (9816) and oft suggested S&P 500 Index (1040) which
both failed to hold. This may lead some to designate us in a bear market versus
the White House theme "Summer of Recovery" …
Barron's: Why the Market Will Keep Sliding Perry D- Barron's
has a nice summary of what the future may hold in its
"Up and Down Wall Street." It summarizes as well as anything I've
read recently where we're likely headed. Bugging the (stock) market is the
increasingly obvious disparity between what the Street's incorrigible
cheerleaders see and prophesy and what's actually happening in the real
world...The double dip in housing may or may not be a template of what's in
store for the economy as a whole. But at the very least, it is a precursor of
other serious disappointments destined to feed the unease among the jittery
populace, which most emphatically includes investors.
It cites the
predictions of SDK Captial's Dee Kessler:
--the
massive fiscal and monetary stimulus so liberally applied in 2008-2009 is
starting to run out of steam, with financial conditions tightening and leading
economic indicators pointing to a stretch of "anemic activity."
--"structural
headwinds," such as public and private deleveraging, higher taxes, greater
regulation and trade tensions.
--the
well-publicized woes of the European bloc, which accounts for 20% of the
world's GDP, as further evidence that the global economy, as he puts it, is
downshifting.
--The
period of easy comparisons in corporate results, he says, is coming to a close,
--"Although
the fundamentals in the U.S., Europe and Japan are worse," Dee spots
plenty of downside in emerging markets and doesn't fancy the notion of
decoupling.
--Come
another financial crisis, "the only policy response left will be to print
money." Which, of course, is what the gold bugs are counting on and why
bullion has glistened so brightly.
That
about sums up the outlook. The nice insight here is that anxiety over future
economic malaise -- and the additional money printing that'll be done to mask
it -- might be a bigger factor than current inflationary pressure behind the
surge in gold prices.
In
other words, for the deflation-believers: deflation today? Perhaps. But
big-time inflation tomorrow.
Disclosure:
No positions
NY
Times’ Krugman: We
Are Entering The Third Depression Recessions are common; depressions are rare. [Correction: we’re already
in a depression].
(Previously)
I’d say this alito vs. wobama is a tempest in a teapot inasmuch as alito is
more than just a lightweight, hack, liar, fraud etc., as set forth in the
comments. alito is a criminal who should have served / should be serving time
in prison for obstruction of justice, bribery, among other RICO violations. To
alito, drug money is as green as corporate money and worth his vote as well. In
addition to being an inept [I looked in on the one mob case he had brought,
bungled, lost (accidently on purpose?) since I was suing some mob-connected
under RICO and the court (I had known / previously met outside of court the
judge Ackerman through a client) was absolute bedlam and a total joke since
incompetent corrupt alito brought in all 20 mob defendants (rather than
prosecute one or a few to flip them first) who feigning illness had beds/cots
in the courtroom along with their moans during testimony and had the jury in
stitches)] and corrupt (see below and particularly the summary provided to the
FBI under penalty of perjury [ http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
] ) u.s.
attorney.
GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONCERNS SINK STOCKS, SEND MAJOR AVERAGES TO NEW
2010 LOWS Midnight Trader 4:30 PM, Jun 29, 2010 --
GLOBAL SENTIMENT
UPSIDE MOVERS
(+) TEVA gets FDA OK for generic Effexor.
(+) RZ inks deal with Hyundai to develop jointly
renewable energy and electric vehicles.
DOWNSIDE MOVERS
(-) MU results beat year-ago earnings but shipments
news weighs.
(-) JBL upgraded but following broader market lower.
(-) WFC, BAC down as report says lower sales will
follow credit card swipe fees.
(-) GOOG making slight change to search in China.
(-) BIDU rival to GOOG also down in active trading.
(-) TCK reports serious incident at Greenhills.
(-) CAGC issuing new stock.
(-) EPCT files NDA for Ceplene in AML.
(-) TTGT initiated at Buy.
(-) SGMO reports positive study data.
(-) DIS upgraded.
(-) INO says journal publishes positive study data
from company
(-) GFI sees Q4 production at upper end of guidance.
(-) RMBS continues evening gain seen on licensing
deal with GE.
(-) AEZS gets positive scientific advice from EMA for
phase 3 colorectal cancer trial.
(-) MMM gained last evening after guiding for Q2
sales in line to above Street view.
MARKET DIRECTION
Already sharply lower stock averages plumbed new
depths late in the regular trading day before again paring those losses just
slightly into the final bell. Global stocks tumbled after two reports rattled
confidence in the Chinese and U.S. economic recoveries and fresh concerns
surrounding euro-zone debt were stirred again.
Down over 300 points at different times during the
trading day, the blue-chip DJIA closed down 268 points, or 2.7%, at 9,870,
below the key 10,000 line and marking the lowest close of 2010. The S&P 500
and the Nasdaq Composite closed down 3.1% to 3.9%, respectively, also charting
fresh 2010 lows.
Two-year Treasury yields hit new record lows, the VIX
volatility index soars and safe-haven funds flowed back into gold even as the
dollar gained.
Already down sharply, the major stock indexes
deepened their losses after the Conference Board's confidence index dropped to
52.9 in June from a revised 62.7 the month before. Earlier the
S&P/Case-Shiller index showed home prices in 20 U.S. cities rising in
April, with the jump mostly attributed to a tax credit.
Tuesday's global slide was kicked off as China's main
stock index closed down more than 4% at a 14-month low.
The Conference Board said its leading economic
indicator for China rose 0.3% in April, correcting a previous reading of 1.7%
increase, which the group said was the result of a calculation error. The 0.3%
reading is a sharp pullback from the 1.2% rise recorded in March …
Barron's: Why the Market Will Keep Sliding Perry D- Barron's
has a nice summary of what the future may hold in its
"Up and Down Wall Street." It summarizes as well as anything I've
read recently where we're likely headed. Bugging the (stock) market is the
increasingly obvious disparity between what the Street's incorrigible
cheerleaders see and prophesy and what's actually happening in the real
world...The double dip in housing may or may not be a template of what's in
store for the economy as a whole. But at the very least, it is a precursor of
other serious disappointments destined to feed the unease among the jittery
populace, which most emphatically includes investors.
It cites the
predictions of SDK Captial's Dee Kessler:
--the
massive fiscal and monetary stimulus so liberally applied in 2008-2009 is
starting to run out of steam, with financial conditions tightening and leading
economic indicators pointing to a stretch of "anemic activity."
--"structural
headwinds," such as public and private deleveraging, higher taxes, greater
regulation and trade tensions.
--the
well-publicized woes of the European bloc, which accounts for 20% of the
world's GDP, as further evidence that the global economy, as he puts it, is
downshifting.
--The
period of easy comparisons in corporate results, he says, is coming to a close,
--"Although
the fundamentals in the U.S., Europe and Japan are worse," Dee spots
plenty of downside in emerging markets and doesn't fancy the notion of
decoupling.
--Come
another financial crisis, "the only policy response left will be to print
money." Which, of course, is what the gold bugs are counting on and why
bullion has glistened so brightly.
That
about sums up the outlook. The nice insight here is that anxiety over future
economic malaise -- and the additional money printing that'll be done to mask
it -- might be a bigger factor than current inflationary pressure behind the
surge in gold prices.
In
other words, for the deflation-believers: deflation today? Perhaps. But
big-time inflation tomorrow.
Disclosure:
No positions
NY
Times’ Krugman: We
Are Entering The Third Depression Recessions are common; depressions are rare. [Correction: we’re already
in a depression].
Stocks: Once More Up, Then the Big Down Smith -The ingredients for a classic head
and shoulders topping pattern in the stock market are all present. That
suggests one more rise and then a massive grinding move down to 2009 lows.
Officially, of course, everything's peachy with the economy. Europe is fixed,
China is booming, consumer confidence is rising, and we are encouraged to
resume our borrow and spend ways as the economy will not "double-dip"
into recession. The economy will not slide into another recession, we are
reassured constantly, even though roughly 80% of Americans don't think we ever
left the recessionary quicksand. Please
see "Two
Scoop Special": Double-Dip Recession Guaranteed (May 21, 2010) for
more … Exactly what drivers are there for future gains in
corporate profits? I can't think of any, short of Martians landing and going on
a shopping spree with gold they manufacture in their spacecraft. On the
negative side, we have:
1. The rising dollar is a huge headwind to sales in
the eurozone and elsewhere.
2. The low-hanging fruit of pushing the workforce to produce more output for
the same salary/wages have all been picked.
3. The inventory build-out is done for everything but the iPhone 4 and iPad.
4. So-called "fiscal austerity" (when did living within one's means
become some sort of brutual "austerity"? Talk abour propaganda!) in
the eurozone and U.S. states will remove tens of billions of dollars from
corporate sales.
5. Global overcapacity is alive and well. There is overcapacity in everything
manufactured except the iPhone 4, and that will be in glut by 2011 as well.
6. Uncle Sam is not distributing trillions of dollars quite as freely. There
seems to be some glimmer of awareness that there could be consequences of
squandering trillions of borrowed dollars on essentially worthless projects
such as occupying Iraq, inflating the housing market by socializing the entire
mortgage market, propping up Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA, etc.
7. Housing is rolling over now that the socialized mortgage market has been
tentatively allowed to go off life-support (it is wheezing and turning blue in
the face, not signs of vibrant health).
8. There is no pricing power anywhere once stimulus-goosed demand declines to
organic demand (flat to down) …
Drudgereport: KRUGMAN: 'We are now, I fear,
in the early stages of a third depression'...
'RECOVERY
SUMMER' CONTINUES...
STOCKS
HIT LOWEST OF YEAR...
Consumer
Confidence Plummets in June...
17% plunge in CITIGROUP triggers 5-minute trading pause...
NEW
CLASHES IN ATHENS...
Greeks Walk Off Job...
NEARLY 2,000 PAGES: The
legislation would redraw how money flows through economy...
Government would have broad
new powers to seize...
DODD: 'No one
will know until this is actually in place how it works'...
Bank stocks soar …
see new old opportunities for new old frauds ...
WSJNBCNEWS: Confidence Waning
in Obama, U.S. Outlook...
SCARY OBAMA: 'VERY DIFFICULT
CHOICES AHEAD' ON DEFICITS
CHICAGOLAND
BOMBSHELL: Obama knew plot to trade Cabinet post for appointing Jarrett to Senate
-- Testimony...
Greece puts its
islands up for sale in futile attempt to save economy...
DEUTSCHE BANK says
US financial conditions are worse...
New home sales plunge 33%...
Record low...
CIA: AFGHAN PROGRESS 'SLOWER'
THAN ANTICIPATED… Daaaaah! ...
GEN. PRAYFORUS
JUNE: DEADLIEST MONTH...
Obama doubles down on war...
New General, Old Strategy...
Barron's: Why the Market Will Keep Sliding Perry D- Barron's has a nice summary of what the future may hold in its
"Up and Down Wall Street." It summarizes as well as anything I've
read recently where we're likely headed. Bugging the (stock) market is the
increasingly obvious disparity between what the Street's incorrigble
cheerleaders see and prophesy and what's actually happening in the real
world...The double dip in housing may or may not be a template of what's in
store for the economy as a whole. But at the very least, it is a precursor of
other serious disappointments destined to feed the unease among the jittery
populace, which most emphatically includes investors.
It cites the predictions of SDK Captial's Dee Kessler:
--the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus
so liberally applied in 2008-2009 is starting to run out of steam, with
financial conditions tightening and leading economic indicators pointing to a
stretch of "anemic activity."
--"structural headwinds," such
as public and private deleveraging, higher taxes, greater regulation and trade
tensions.
--the well-publicized woes of the European
bloc, which accounts for 20% of the world's GDP, as further evidence that the
global economy, as he puts it, is downshifting.
--The period of easy comparisons in
corporate results, he says, is coming to a close,
--"Although the fundamentals in the
U.S., Europe and Japan are worse," Dee spots plenty of downside in
emerging markets and doesn't fancy the notion of decoupling.
--Come another financial crisis, "the
only policy response left will be to print money." Which, of course, is
what the gold bugs are counting on and why bullion has glistened so brightly.
That about sums up the outlook. The nice
insight here is that anxiety over future economic malaise -- and the additional
money printing that'll be done to mask it -- might be a bigger factor than
current inflationary pressure behind the surge in gold prices.
In other words, for the
deflation-believers: deflation today? Perhaps. But big-time inflation tomorrow.
Disclosure: No positions
NY
Times’ Krugman: We
Are Entering The Third Depression Recessions are common; depressions are rare. [Correction: we’re already in a
depression].
Stocks: Once More Up, Then the Big Down Smith -The
ingredients for a classic head and shoulders topping pattern in the stock
market are all present. That suggests one more rise and then a massive grinding
move down to 2009 lows. Officially, of course, everything's peachy with
the economy. Europe is fixed, China is booming, consumer confidence is rising,
and we are encouraged to resume our borrow and spend ways as the economy will
not "double-dip" into recession. The economy will not slide into
another recession, we are reassured constantly, even though roughly 80% of
Americans don't think we ever left the recessionary quicksand. Please see "Two
Scoop Special": Double-Dip Recession Guaranteed (May 21, 2010) for
more …
Exactly what drivers are there for future gains in corporate profits? I can't
think of any, short of Martians landing and going on a shopping spree with gold
they manufacture in their spacecraft. On the negative side, we have:
1. The rising
dollar is a huge headwind to sales in the eurozone and elsewhere.
2. The
low-hanging fruit of pushing the workforce to produce more output for the same
salary/wages have all been picked.
3. The
inventory build-out is done for everything but the iPhone 4 and iPad.
4. So-called
"fiscal austerity" (when did living within one's means become some
sort of brutual "austerity"? Talk abour propaganda!) in the eurozone
and U.S. states will remove tens of billions of dollars from corporate sales.
5. Global
overcapacity is alive and well. There is overcapacity in everything
manufactured except the iPhone 4, and that will be in glut by 2011 as well.
6. Uncle Sam is not distributing trillions of dollars quite as freely. There
seems to be some glimmer of awareness that there could be consequences of
squandering trillions of borrowed dollars on essentially worthless projects
such as occupying Iraq, inflating the housing market by socializing the entire
mortgage market, propping up Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA, etc.
7. Housing is rolling over now that the socialized mortgage market has been
tentatively allowed to go off life-support (it is wheezing and turning blue in
the face, not signs of vibrant health).
8. There is no pricing power anywhere once stimulus-goosed demand declines to
organic demand (flat to down) …
Momentum Book Update: The Market Is a Mess and the Long Bond Is
About to Break Out … Not only do us swing traders have to fight
the urge to chase price action up, but lay off the keyboard trying to catch
falling knives in the relative strength stocks which are holding up. If you
tried to buy support in your favorite names this week, you got your hands cut
up. I’ll continue to rely on the
understanding of my own emotions as they have served me well. When we opened
higher on Monday morning I knew I was in the right place, cash, as the market
was just way overbought. If you bought most relative strength names last week,
by the end of this week you were well underwater. So where do we go from here?
I’ve got no clue, the market is a
mess, the charts are a mess, and the long bond is about to break out. If that
happens all bets are off, we could see an “event”. If the smart money is lining up at the exits and moving
into bonds, there’s a good chance they see something
coming down the pipe …
SUITING UP FOR A POST-DOLLAR WORLD John Browne ‘The global financial crisis is
playing out like a slow-moving, highly predicable stage play. In the current
scene, Western governments are caught between the demands of entitled welfare
beneficiaries and the anxiety of bondholders who fear they will be stuck with
the bill. As the crisis reaches an apex, prime ministers and presidents are
forced into a Sophie's choice between social unrest and bankruptcy. But with
the "Club Med" economies set to fall like dominoes, the US Treasury
market is not yet acting the role we would have anticipated. Our argument has
always been that the US benefits from its reserve-currency status, allowing it
to accumulate unsustainable debts for an unusually long period without the
immediate repercussions of inflation or higher borrowing costs. But this false
sense of security may be setting us up for a truly monumental crash. There is
fresh evidence that time is running out for the dollar-centric global monetary
order. In fact, central banks outside the US are already making swift and
discrete preparation for a post-dollar era.To begin, the People's Bank of China
has just this week decided to permit a wider trading range between the yuan and
the dollar. This is the first step toward ending the infernal yuan-dollar peg.
While the impetus behind this abrupt change remains a mystery, I have a
sneaking suspicion that, as my colleague Neeraj Chaudhary explained in his commentary
last week, the nationwide labor strikes were a prime motivator. In response to
the 2008 credit crunch, the Fed printed so many dollars that the People's Bank
of China was forced to drive Chinese inflation into double digits to maintain
the peg. The pain has fallen on China's workers, who have seen their wages
stagnate while prices for everything from milk to apartments have skyrocketed.
This week's move indicates that, regardless of its own policy motives, the
Communist Party can no longer afford to keep pace with the dollar's
devaluation. The result will be a shift in wealth from America to China, which
may trigger a long-anticipated run on the dollar, while creating investment
opportunities in China. Just days before China's announcement, Russian
President Dmitry Medvedev rattled his monetary sabre by telling the press of
his intention to lead the world toward a new monetary order based on a broad
basket of currencies. Giving strength to his claim, the Central Bank of Russia
announced that it would be adding Canadian and Australian dollars to its
reserves for the first time. Analysts suggest that the IMF may follow suit.
While Russia floats in the limbo between hopeless kleptocracy and emerging
economy, it does possess vast natural resources and a toe-hold in both Europe
and Asia. In other words, it will be a strategically important partner for
China as it tries to cast off dollar hegemony. Speaking of Europe, the major
powers there are moving toward a post-dollar world by rejecting President
Obama's calls to jump on America's debt grenade. The prescriptions coming from
Washington translate loosely to: our airship is on fire, so why don't you light
a candle under yours so that we may crash and burn together. Given that dollar
strength is largely seen as a function of euro weakness (as Andrew Schiff
discussed in our most recent newsletter,
debt troubles in the eurozone's fringe economies have created a distorted
confidence in the greenback. However, as you might imagine, Europe has higher
priorities than being America's fall guy. Led by an ever-bolder Germany, the
European states are wisely choosing not to throw themselves on our funeral
pyre, but to wisely clean house in anticipation of China's rise. In another
ominous sign for the dollar, the Financial Times reported Wednesday that after
two decades as net sellers of gold, foreign central banks have now become net
buyers. What's more, more than half of central bank officials surveyed by UBS
didn't think the dollar would be the world's reserve in 2035. Among the
predicted replacements were Asian currencies and the euro, but - by far - the
favorite was gold. This is supported by Monday's revelation by the Saudi
central bank that it had covertly doubled its gold reserves, just about a year
after China made a similar admission. There is no reason to assume these are
isolated incidents, or that the covert trade of dollars for gold doesn't
continue. To the contrary, this is compelling evidence that foreign governments
are outwardly supporting the status quo while quietly preparing for the
dollar's almost-inevitable devaluation. What people like Paul Krugman believe
to be a return to medieval economics may, in fact, be the wave of the future.
In peacetime, hardened troops will likely tolerate a blowhard general for an
extended period; but when the artillery opens up with live ordnance, an
ineffectual leader risks rapid demotion. The newspapers are now riddled with
hints that foreign governments have lost faith in Washington and the dollar
reserve system. It seems to me only natural that after a century of war,
inflation, and socialism, the next hundred years would belong to those people
who hold the timeless values of hard money and fiscal prudence. Unfortunately,
our policymakers are not those people.’
Celente:
The US is run by Wall Street Russia Today June 26,
2010 While the White House is celebrating the new financial reform bill, Gerald
Celente of the Trends Research Institute says that nothing has really changed.
Banks are still divided into “too big to fail” or “too small to save;” people are still being encouraged to spend rather than
save. Celente says that the only thing that keeps the US from putting in
austerity measures as has been done in most of Europe is that the US can print
more money. While the White House is celebrating the new financial reform bill,
Gerald Celente of the Trends Research Institute says that nothing has really
changed.
China's
Hu Jintao Says Group of 20 Must Coordinate to Consolidate Recovery Bloomberg … How about the G195
countries in the world collectively be considered in this task of
coordination owing to the abject failure of the so-called G20 which have in
lockstep coordination precipitated this global crisis including the war
mongering, war criminal acts of the so-called nato allies et als, particularly
the u.s., and as well the likes of war criminal nation israel which have never
avoided a contra-indicated, anti-recovery war / conflict they could contrive /
rationalize. The so-called G7, 8, 9, 20, etc., are a pathetic bunch of
incompetent vegetables / jokers / showmen / clowns.
The following is really the quintessential question and
issue, particularly in light of america’s defacto bankruptcy and international
law; but paramount humanitarian concerns alone would militate against america’s
current misguided course. Is Petraeus McChrystal’s Replacement or Obama’s? Paul Craig Roberts | All of
this drama is playing out despite the continuing lack of any valid reason for
the american invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan.
Drudgereport: KRUGMAN: 'We are now, I fear,
in the early stages of a third depression'...
NEARLY 2,000 PAGES: The
legislation would redraw how money flows through economy...
Government would have broad
new powers to seize...
DODD: 'No one
will know until this is actually in place how it works'...
Bank stocks soar …
see new old opportunities for new old frauds ...
WSJNBCNEWS: Confidence Waning
in Obama, U.S. Outlook...
SCARY OBAMA: 'VERY DIFFICULT
CHOICES AHEAD' ON DEFICITS
CHICAGOLAND
BOMBSHELL: Obama knew plot to trade Cabinet post for appointing Jarrett to Senate
-- Testimony...
Greece puts its
islands up for sale in futile attempt to save economy...
DEUTSCHE BANK says
US financial conditions are worse...
New home sales plunge 33%...
Record low...
CIA: AFGHAN PROGRESS 'SLOWER'
THAN ANTICIPATED… Daaaaah! ...
GEN. PRAYFORUS
JUNE: DEADLIEST MONTH...
Obama doubles down on war...
New General, Old Strategy...
3 SIGNS OF A SUCKER RALLY AFTER EXAMINING
TECHNICAL EVIDENCE, SENTIMENT INDICATORS AND VARIOUS VALUATION METRICS, IT
BECOMES OBVIOUS THAT THE RECENT BOUNCE PROVIDES A SELLING, NOT BUYING
OPPORTUNITY ...’
Reports:
IAF Landed at Saudi Base, US Troops near Iran Border Arutz Sheva | The Israeli
Air Force recently unloaded military equipment at a Saudi Arabia base, a
semi-official Iranian news agency claimed Wednesday. It’s time for the world to take
a close look at the despotic, totalitarian regime that presently exists for the
grandeur and wealth of a few while hiding behind Islam as they betray same and
Muslims everywhere. The time has come for regime change in Saudi Arabia to
yield a nation of and for the people of Saudi Arabia and the glory of Islam.
Connecticut
vegetable lieberman: China Can Shut Down The Internet, Why Can’t We … (great logic from a totalitarian zionist)? Senator joe Zelig the zionist israeli
lieberman, co-author of a bill that would give President Obama a ‘kill switch’ to shut down parts of
the Internet, attempted to reassure CNN viewers yesterday that concerns about
the government regulating free speech on the web were overblown, but he only
stoked more alarm by citing China, a country that censors all online dissent
against the state, as the model to which American should compare itself.
Soros
Says ‘We Have Just Entered Act II’ of Crisis Bloomberg | Soros said the current situation in
the world economy is “eerily” reminiscent of the 1930s. Gerald
Celente: U.S. Financial Markets to Collapse by End of 2010 Infowars.com | Gerald
Celente is a renowned trend forecaster, publisher of the Trends Journal,
business consultant and author who makes predictions about the global financial
markets and other events of historical importance. Jobless
Claims in U.S. Decreased Last Week to 456,000 Bloomberg |
More Americans than anticipated filed applications for unemployment benefits
last week.
Market Outlook: Bearish Background to Bullish Storyline Sean Hannon: ‘The last two weekly market
commentaries have discussed how the underlying trend of the market is now
bearish and all rallies should be used to sell stocks and reduce risks. With
nearly every news outlet spouting the bullish storyline, these articles served
as an outline of a disciplined investment strategy. Those who followed the
outline have done well as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow), S&P 500,
and NASDAQ each declined over 5% since my initial warning. With the Dow still
stuck below the psychologically important 10,000 level and all three major U.S.
markets trading beneath their 200-day moving averages (MA), the bearish
backdrop is clear. Even if many are still looking for a rally, we should
understand that the primary trend is lower. Instead of focusing on how high
prices will rally, we should instead consider how much further prices can fall
…’
Greek
Default Seen by Almost 75% in Poll Doubtful About Trichet Global investors have little confidence in
Europe’s efforts to contain its debt crisis or in European Central Bank
President Jean-Claude Trichet, with 73 percent calling a default by Greece likely. 12
Reasons Why The U.S. Housing Crash Is Far From Over Over the past several months, many in the
mainstream media have hailed the slight improvement in the U.S. real estate
market as a “housing recovery”. US
Needs Austerity Too: Hedge Fund Strategist The United States will have to adopt austerity measures similar to
the ones taken in Europe, because the problems faced are largely the same,
Timothy Scala, macro-strategist at Sophis Investments, told CNBC.com. Market
Analyst: ‘BP’s Not Going to Last as a Company More Than a Matter of Months’ We’ve heard politicians, even conservative
Republicans, suggest BP would be held completely responsible for the
devastation caused by the oil spill plaguing the Gulf of Mexico, even if it
means its very existence.
US Media Terrified Of
Mentioning USS Liberty Do
you know that an american naval vessel was attacked by israel in international
waters, 43 years ago today, resulting in the deaths of dozens of american
sailors
Arab lawmaker on flotilla sparks outrage in israel (AP) - An Israeli-Arab lawmaker's
decision to join hundreds of activists on a pro-Palestinian flotilla has
elevated her from relative political obscurity, transforming her into the
poster child for the ...
DEBT POISED TO OVERTAKE GDP Key
Indicators of a New Depression Neeraj Chaudhary | Great Depression II developing into
something far more devastating than its predecessor You’re Being Decieved Infowars.com
| We’re heading over an economic cliff and there’s nothing the government can
or will do about it except lie. The
Folly of Blindly Trusting the Government
‘What Does China Want?’
They want to speak to Rosanne Rosanna Danna, of course! ‘Asian markets tumble
on fears over Hungary’ …Riiiiight! Hungary’s the thing! … Rosanne Rosanna
Danna, formerly of SNL fame wanted in Asia to chime in with what her mama
always used to say, ‘ It’s always something ‘ . Of course, it matters little to
the frauds on wall street what the something is said to be since the reality is
… ‘This is a global depression. This is a
secular bear market in a global depression. This was a manipulated bull (s***)
cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as
has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street
frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street
churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes.’ ( It should be noted, and there have
been a multitude of other instances, that I’m getting substantial ‘attacks’
vis-ŕ-vis my internet connection which has slowed dramatically these posts. I
don’t think the interference is either accidental nor just coincidental but
consistent with corrupt defacto bankrupt america’s critics of which I am one
and not alone in that regard – slowing, militating against the devastating
truth about america.) Europe
is Heading for a Depression Despite a nearly-$1 trillion rescue operation,
financial conditions in the eurozone continue to deteriorate. All the gauges of
market stress are edging upwards and credit default swaps (CDS) spreads have
widened to levels not seen since the weekend of the emergency euro-summit. Key
Indicators of a New Depression With the mainstream media focusing on the
country’s leveling unemployment rate, improving retail sales, and nascent
housing recovery, one might think that the US government has successfully
navigated the economy through recession and growth has returned. Get
Ready for a Double Dip … but many warning flags point
towards significant deterioration in the U.S. and global economy going forward
and so I think that by the end of the year or early 2011, we could very well be
facing a new leg down in the world’s economic situation … [I’d say too
optimistic since, to reiterate: This is a
global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. This
was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a
typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great
regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into.
This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud
as in prior crashes.]
european central banks intervened to shore up
the ever more worthless euro, buying into that fraudulent wall street b*** s***
story that that ‘s a good thing, rallying stocks off their lows. It is amazing
how dumb europe has become so quickly. An exception is what I believe was
Germany’s steps against derivatives, which market according to a derivatives
trader on the radio this day is a $40 trillion market (missed his name). To
reiterate as applicable to yet another fraudulent scheme previously stated,
said market is paper on paper moving around and generating commissions at
lightning computerized speed but adding no real value in real economic terms;
again, the analogy of termites eating away at the (nation’s) foundation is
apposite. As such, that money has to come from some real place and hence, the
ever more frequent and larger crashes we are seeing. Don’t forget that the
worthless paper from previous such fraudulent schemes now marked to anything is
still out there in a magnitude some have placed in the hundreds of trillions.
The
Worst Money Supply Plunge Since The Depression Means A Double Dip Is Now A
‘Virtual Certainty’ The stock of
U.S. money as measured by ‘M3′ money supply fell to $13.9 trillion from $14.2
trillion during the three months ending in April. [ This
is still an extraordinarily high level but … I don’t buy it. I believe the
printing presses have been working overtime to pump out ever more worthless
fiat currency and with the many trillions of worthless fraudulent paper still
out there and marked to anything. I further believe the same is being
surreptitiously used to supplant the fraudulent paper, the consequences of
which will be devastating, of course, as is invariably so in depressions in any
event. This scenario would also mean huge fraud accomplis. ] Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level The bankster operative who helped destroy
Glass-Steagall is back. Larry Summers, Obama’s top economic adviser, has told
Congress to “grit its teeth” and approve a fresh fiscal boost of $200 billion
to keep growth on track, reports the Daily Telegraph. Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level Kurt Nimmo | The Federal Reserve
stopped publishing M3 figures back in 2006.
The frauds
on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, and disgorgement
imposed. If that were so, they wouldn’t be worrying about who wins / loses
since those who fraudulently play, invariably would (and should) pay. If they’re not prosecuted, everyone
loses.
POST MORTEM
AND REVIEW Ricky:
A post mortem is in order. The elements of this
worldwide con game are remarkably simple, not complex at all. Apparently you
only need a few things to make a mockery of the entire global economic system,
and big banks garnered these few important things through “regulatory capture”:
1) Unregulated, unenforced rules (particularly for
derivatives)
2) license to “mark to model” (assign your own values to your assets)
3) ability to peg present value to irrational expected future returns (based on
unlimited, exponential growth)
4) infinite leverage (no effective requirements for reserve capital in
unregulated “shadow” markets)
5) massive size, so that the bank is "too big to fail"
6) non-transparency and non-accountability.
SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY!
THE FORECASTS:
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012
Russell Napier is the author of the book
“Anatomy of the Bear”, a professor at the Edinburgh Business School and a
consultant to CLSA Ltd. which is one of the top research houses in Asia. Napier’s
research indicates (and I paraphrase) that: The S&P 500 will Decline to 400
by 2014 (the Dow 30 to 3800)
The S&P 500 will then undergo a major crash that will see U.S. equity
prices bottom at almost 50% below current levels (i.e. to 400 or less; the Dow
30 to 3800 or less) sometime around 2014 as Tobin’s “q” drops to 0.3 signaling
the end of the bear market, as it has done at the end of the four largest U.S.
market declines in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982.
U.S. Treasury Sales Collapse Leading to End of U.S. Dollar as Reserve Currency
Robert R.
Prechter Jr. is
author of a number of newsletters and books including “Elliott Wave Principle”
(1978) in which he predicted the super bull market of the 1980s; “At the Crest
of the Tidal Wave – A Forecast of the Great Bear Market” (1995) in which he
predicted a slow motion economic earthquake, brought about by a great asset
mania, that would register 11 on the financial Richter scale causing a collapse
of historic proportions; and “Conquer the Crash: You can Survive and Prosper in
a Deflationary Depression” (2002) in which he described the economic cataclysm
that we are just beginning to experience and advised how to position one’s self
financially during that period of time.
Depression is Imminent
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to
below 777 which was the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and
quite likely drop below 400 at one or more times during the bear market.
According to the Debt Clock:
• Total national debt: $13 trillion
• Debt per citizen: $42,026
• Debt per taxpayer: $117,982
• Total interest due: $1.9 trillion
• Interest per citizen: $2,211
Click here to see the Debt Clock, which is updated every
second.
• Total personal debt: $16.5 trillion
• Total mortgage debt: $14.1 trillion
• Total consumer debt: $2.45 trillion
• Personal debt per citizen: $53,483
• Debt held by foreign countries: $4.07
trillion
(Previously)
I’d say this alito vs. wobama is a tempest in a teapot inasmuch as alito is
more than just a lightweight, hack, liar, fraud etc., as set forth in the
comments. alito is a criminal who should have served / should be serving time
in prison for obstruction of justice, bribery, among other RICO violations. To
alito, drug money is as green as corporate money and worth his vote as well. In
addition to being an inept [I looked in on the one mob case he had brought,
bungled, lost (accidently on purpose?) since I was suing some mob-connected
under RICO and the court (I had known / previously met outside of court the
judge Ackerman through a client) was absolute bedlam and a total joke since
incompetent corrupt alito brought in all 20 mob defendants (rather than
prosecute one or a few to flip them first) who feigning illness had beds/cots
in the courtroom along with their moans during testimony and had the jury in
stitches)] and corrupt (see below and particularly the summary provided to the
FBI under penalty of perjury [ http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
] ) u.s.
attorney.
You’re
naďve to think that the so-called supreme court is any different from the rest
of the meaningfully lawless and pervasively corrupt american ‘system’. I knew
well an accomplished trial lawyer, fellow american college of trial lawyers /
and a bar examiner, who pondered from time to time becoming a judge “so he’d
never have to work again” – his words.
Some
comments on alito…all appropriate:
Probably the worst appointment in one
hundred years.
Posted by: mnjam
-----------------------
Really? That's a pretty sweeping
statement to make about someone who's only been on the court a short few years.
And I thought that liberals were in
universal agreement that Clarence Thomas was the worst appointment in all of
history?
Posted by: blert | January 28, 2010 2:11
AM | Report abuse
----------------------------
Yes. Really. Alito is a total lightweight and hack. He makes Thomas look like John
Marshall or Oliver Wendell Holmes. I KNOW ALITO.
Posted by: mnjam | January 28, 2010 2:24 AM |
the loser here is alito.lost his composure not good for a judge especially
afederal or supreme justice .loser big time this will live with guy for a very
time.roberts and the other justices will have a talk with him that is a
given.this relly larger than o one day news cycle.
Posted by: donaldtucker | January 28, 2010 1:12 AM |
Should Alito resign or be impeached?
Posted by: jdmca | January 28, 2010 1:05 AM |
I include the first two comments to the foregoing
headline:
Billo
Says:
June
11th, 2010 at 6:15 am
Lunacy?
Keep in mind that this country is run and controlled by lunatics. Our press
government and military seem to take their orders from Israel. Isarel wants to
be known as a pack of “mad dogs. Do we want “mad dogs” controlling us?
Here we see a bunch of phony accusations against Iran just
like we did in the run up to the bogus wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and now
Pakistan. The boy has cried wold ten thousand times. It’s time to identify the
“lunatics” and kindly take away the car keys. If you won’t let your friends
drive drunk, why do we let a bunch of “lunatic” enemies run this place.
Glen
Reply:
June
11th, 2010 at 6:47 am
Lunacy
it would be.
But
it is also to their great credit that the Iranians have not made their own
threats.
Everyone
knows there are 3 WMD threats, Nuclear Biological and chemical. The scariest of
which is Biological.
Any
attack done under the threat of immediate biological retaliation would deter
only the insane.
Watch
out america home of the insane, home of the leaders who want an 80% population
reduction.
The yardarm is the
remedy Dozens of our friends and comrades, of wonderful compassionate
activists are dead and wounded in the pirate attack in the high seas on
humanitarian aid boats. This is a dreadful crime that will forever be
remembered and should be punished. The Israeli pirates attacked the
humanitarian aid Freedom Flotilla in the international waters over 150 km out
of their territorial waters. The boats carried no arms; the participants
strictly adhered to Ghandian mode by asking the Greek and Cyprus authorities to
search the boats to avoid later claims that they were armed.
A
Plague Upon The World: The USA is a “Failed State” Dr. Paul Craig Roberts | The
American people are lost in la-la land. They have no idea that their civil
liberties have been forfeited. US
citizen killed on flotilla reportedly shot four times in head Raw Story | A forensic report said
Furkan Dogan was shot at close range, with four bullets in his head and one in
his chest, according to the Anatolian news agency. The explanation foisted off
on the americans by war criminal israelis is probably something on the order of
‘they just wanted to make sure they missed him’. Roberts:
‘AIPAC purchases US elections’ Russia Today | Paul Craig Roberts says that there will be
nothing that is going to be done by the United States to change the
relationship with Israel.
Flat Friday, But Stocks End Week Sharply Lower Midnight Trader 4:16 PM, Jun 25, 2010 --
GLOBAL
SENTIMENT
UPSIDE
MOVERS
(+) GS gaining in wake of bank reform deal.
(+) C gaining in wake of bank reform deal.
(+) ORCL continues evening gain that followed Q4 beat, Q1 guidance in
line with Street view.
(+) TIBX continues evening gain that followed earnings, revenue beat.
(+) MRK, CRME get European marketing approval for Brinavess
formulation.
(+) FRPT inks new contract.
(+) FINL continues evening decline that followed sales miss.
DOWNSIDE MOVERS
(-) RIMM continues evening decline seen after company beat with earnings
but missed with revenue and issued mixed guidance.
(-) BP hits fresh 14-year low after analyst note says stock sale may be
necessary.
MARKET DIRECTION
The Nasdaq ends with a 6 point gain and the S&P 500 with a 3 point gain,
while the DJIA ends down 9 points. The major averages end the week sharply
lower, with the Nasdaq down 3.8%, DJIA down 2.8% and S&P 500 down 3.6%.
U.S. equities markets traded higher very early in the day, turned lower to
start regular trading and eventually chopped in mixed action Friday as
financial reform legislation and downward revised GDP figure provided mixed
signals to investors weary of several losing sessions in a row. Earlier,
lawmakers in the U.S. House and Senate approved one of the most significant
increases in financial regulation since the Great Depression. The measure
places new restrictions on the Federal Reserve and the country's biggest
lenders. Specifically, it requires "too-big-to-fail" banks to
implement capital and leverage limits and the government to perform ongoing
audits of the Fed's lending programs. Also, the bill includes the so-called
"Volker rule," which limits speculative trading activities.
Financials were broadly higher as a result of the agreement over financial reform,
which has been hanging over stocks for a while. Shares of JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
and Citigroup (C)
helped lift financial shares after negotiators in the U.S. Congress agreed on
financial reforms in a bill that doesn't go all the way to a full ban of
hedge-fund and buyout-fund investing, reports Bloomberg. The Volker rule that
bans banks from investing in hedge funds and private-equity funds was eased to
allow banks to invest up to 3% of their capital, the report said. Meanwhile, an
analyst note from Nomura today suggested BP PLC (BP) needs to sell
stock to assure counter-parties that it has the financial health to withstand
the growing cost of cleaning up the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, according to a
report on MarketWatch. The note says BP's roughly $15 billion of current
liquidity looks adequate to deal with committed acquisitions, spill clean-up
costs and the phased funding of the $20 billion escrow account for claims, but
as the Macondo well continues to leak oil, the company's funding could be
threatened. The company gave an update Friday, putting costs of cleaning up the
spill now at $2.35 billion. Also, Oracle Corp. (ORCL) was
higher as it reported a 25% rise in fourth quarter profit, which marked its
first full quarter with Sun Microsystems as part of its group. The stock is
seeing a steady sell-off into the open, dropping from pre-market highs.
Earnings per share reached 60 cents per share excluding one-time items while
revenue increased by 39% to $9.5 billion. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters
had expected earnings per share of 54 cents on revenue of $9.5 billion. There
were some gains in drug stocks. Regulus Therapeutics and Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) inked a
global, strategic alliance to discover, develop, and commercialize microRNA
therapeutics. The alliance is potentially valued at over $750 million and
includes a $25 million upfront fee paid by SNY to Regulus, a $10 million future
equity investment subject to valuation agreement, and annual research support
for three years with the option to extend two additional years. Shares of Merck
(MRK)
were higher after a drug the company makes that is used to restore a steady
heartbeat received a recommendation for approval in Europe, the company said
along with partner Cardiome Pharma Corp. (CRME).
The treatment, called Brinavess, would be used as a treatment for the onset of
atrial fibrillation in adults. In other financial news. Fidelity National
Information Services (FIS) rose on
a New York Post story saying private-equity firm TPG Capital is attempting to
revive a buyout or restructuring deal for the payment services provider,
Bloomberg reports.
The following is really the quintessential question and
issue, particularly in light of america’s defacto bankruptcy and international
law; but paramount humanitarian concerns alone would militate against america’s
current misguided course. Is Petraeus McChrystal’s Replacement or Obama’s? Paul Craig Roberts | All of
this drama is playing out despite the continuing lack of any valid reason for
the american invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan.
Drudgereport: NEARLY 2,000 PAGES: The
legislation would redraw how money flows through economy...
Government would have broad
new powers to seize...
DODD: 'No one
will know until this is actually in place how it works'...
Bank stocks soar …
see new old opportunities for new old frauds ...
WSJNBCNEWS: Confidence Waning
in Obama, U.S. Outlook...
CHICAGOLAND
BOMBSHELL: Obama knew plot to trade Cabinet post for appointing Jarrett to
Senate -- Testimony...
Greece puts its
islands up for sale in futile attempt to save economy...
DEUTSCHE BANK says
US financial conditions are worse...
New home sales plunge 33%...
Record low...
GEN. PRAYFORUS
JUNE: DEADLIEST MONTH...
Obama doubles down on war...
New General, Old Strategy...
3 SIGNS OF A SUCKER RALLY AFTER EXAMINING
TECHNICAL EVIDENCE, SENTIMENT INDICATORS AND VARIOUS VALUATION METRICS, IT
BECOMES OBVIOUS THAT THE RECENT BOUNCE PROVIDES A SELLING, NOT BUYING
OPPORTUNITY ...’
Reports:
IAF Landed at Saudi Base, US Troops near Iran Border Arutz Sheva | The Israeli
Air Force recently unloaded military equipment at a Saudi Arabia base, a
semi-official Iranian news agency claimed Wednesday. It’s time for the world to
take a close look at the despotic, totalitarian regime that presently exists
for the grandeur and wealth of a few while hiding behind Islam as they betray
same and Muslims everywhere. The time has come for regime change in Saudi
Arabia to yield a nation of and for the people of Saudi Arabia and the glory of
Islam.
Connecticut
vegetable lieberman: China Can Shut Down The Internet, Why Can’t We … (great logic from a totalitarian zionist)? Senator joe Zelig the zionist israeli lieberman,
co-author of a bill that would give President Obama a ‘kill switch’ to shut down parts of
the Internet, attempted to reassure CNN viewers yesterday that concerns about
the government regulating free speech on the web were overblown, but he only stoked
more alarm by citing China, a country that censors all online dissent against
the state, as the model to which American should compare itself.
Soros
Says ‘We Have Just Entered Act II’ of Crisis Bloomberg | Soros said the current situation in
the world economy is “eerily” reminiscent of the 1930s. Gerald
Celente: U.S. Financial Markets to Collapse by End of 2010 Infowars.com | Gerald
Celente is a renowned trend forecaster, publisher of the Trends Journal,
business consultant and author who makes predictions about the global financial
markets and other events of historical importance. Jobless
Claims in U.S. Decreased Last Week to 456,000 Bloomberg |
More Americans than anticipated filed applications for unemployment benefits
last week.
Market Outlook: Bearish Background to Bullish Storyline Sean Hannon: ‘The last two weekly market
commentaries have discussed how the underlying trend of the market is now
bearish and all rallies should be used to sell stocks and reduce risks. With
nearly every news outlet spouting the bullish storyline, these articles served
as an outline of a disciplined investment strategy. Those who followed the
outline have done well as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow), S&P 500,
and NASDAQ each declined over 5% since my initial warning. With the Dow still
stuck below the psychologically important 10,000 level and all three major U.S.
markets trading beneath their 200-day moving averages (MA), the bearish
backdrop is clear. Even if many are still looking for a rally, we should
understand that the primary trend is lower. Instead of focusing on how high
prices will rally, we should instead consider how much further prices can fall
…’
Greek
Default Seen by Almost 75% in Poll Doubtful About Trichet Global investors have little confidence in
Europe’s efforts to contain its debt crisis or in European Central Bank
President Jean-Claude Trichet, with 73 percent calling a default by Greece
likely. 12
Reasons Why The U.S. Housing Crash Is Far From Over Over the past several months, many in the
mainstream media have hailed the slight improvement in the U.S. real estate
market as a “housing recovery”. US
Needs Austerity Too: Hedge Fund Strategist The United States will have to adopt austerity measures similar to
the ones taken in Europe, because the problems faced are largely the same,
Timothy Scala, macro-strategist at Sophis Investments, told CNBC.com. Market
Analyst: ‘BP’s Not Going to Last as a Company More Than a Matter of Months’ We’ve heard politicians, even conservative
Republicans, suggest BP would be held completely responsible for the
devastation caused by the oil spill plaguing the Gulf of Mexico, even if it
means its very existence.
US Media Terrified Of
Mentioning USS Liberty Do
you know that an american naval vessel was attacked by israel in international
waters, 43 years ago today, resulting in the deaths of dozens of american
sailors
Arab lawmaker on flotilla sparks outrage in israel (AP) - An Israeli-Arab lawmaker's
decision to join hundreds of activists on a pro-Palestinian flotilla has
elevated her from relative political obscurity, transforming her into the
poster child for the ...
DEBT POISED TO OVERTAKE GDP Key
Indicators of a New Depression Neeraj Chaudhary | Great Depression II developing into
something far more devastating than its predecessor You’re Being Decieved Infowars.com
| We’re heading over an economic cliff and there’s nothing the government can
or will do about it except lie. The
Folly of Blindly Trusting the Government
‘What Does China Want?’
They want to speak to Rosanne Rosanna Danna, of course! ‘Asian markets tumble
on fears over Hungary’ …Riiiiight! Hungary’s the thing! … Rosanne Rosanna
Danna, formerly of SNL fame wanted in Asia to chime in with what her mama always
used to say, ‘ It’s always something ‘ . Of course, it matters little to the
frauds on wall street what the something is said to be since the reality is … ‘This is a global depression. This is a secular bear
market in a global depression. This was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a
secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes.’ ( It should be noted, and there have
been a multitude of other instances, that I’m getting substantial ‘attacks’
vis-ŕ-vis my internet connection which has slowed dramatically these posts. I
don’t think the interference is either accidental nor just coincidental but
consistent with corrupt defacto bankrupt america’s critics of which I am one
and not alone in that regard – slowing, militating against the devastating
truth about america.) Europe
is Heading for a Depression Despite a nearly-$1 trillion rescue operation,
financial conditions in the eurozone continue to deteriorate. All the gauges of
market stress are edging upwards and credit default swaps (CDS) spreads have
widened to levels not seen since the weekend of the emergency euro-summit. Key
Indicators of a New Depression With the mainstream media focusing on the
country’s leveling unemployment rate, improving retail sales, and nascent housing
recovery, one might think that the US government has successfully navigated the
economy through recession and growth has returned. Get
Ready for a Double Dip … but many warning flags point
towards significant deterioration in the U.S. and global economy going forward
and so I think that by the end of the year or early 2011, we could very well be
facing a new leg down in the world’s economic situation … [I’d say too
optimistic since, to reiterate: This is a
global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. This
was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a
typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great
regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into.
This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud
as in prior crashes.]
european central banks intervened to shore up
the ever more worthless euro, buying into that fraudulent wall street b*** s***
story that that ‘s a good thing, rallying stocks off their lows. It is amazing
how dumb europe has become so quickly. An exception is what I believe was
Germany’s steps against derivatives, which market according to a derivatives
trader on the radio this day is a $40 trillion market (missed his name). To
reiterate as applicable to yet another fraudulent scheme previously stated,
said market is paper on paper moving around and generating commissions at
lightning computerized speed but adding no real value in real economic terms;
again, the analogy of termites eating away at the (nation’s) foundation is
apposite. As such, that money has to come from some real place and hence, the
ever more frequent and larger crashes we are seeing. Don’t forget that the
worthless paper from previous such fraudulent schemes now marked to anything is
still out there in a magnitude some have placed in the hundreds of trillions.
The
Worst Money Supply Plunge Since The Depression Means A Double Dip Is Now A
‘Virtual Certainty’ The stock of
U.S. money as measured by ‘M3′ money supply fell to $13.9 trillion from $14.2
trillion during the three months ending in April. [ This
is still an extraordinarily high level but … I don’t buy it. I believe the
printing presses have been working overtime to pump out ever more worthless
fiat currency and with the many trillions of worthless fraudulent paper still
out there and marked to anything. I further believe the same is being
surreptitiously used to supplant the fraudulent paper, the consequences of
which will be devastating, of course, as is invariably so in depressions in any
event. This scenario would also mean huge fraud accomplis. ] Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level The bankster operative who helped destroy
Glass-Steagall is back. Larry Summers, Obama’s top economic adviser, has told
Congress to “grit its teeth” and approve a fresh fiscal boost of $200 billion
to keep growth on track, reports the Daily Telegraph. Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level Kurt Nimmo | The Federal Reserve
stopped publishing M3 figures back in 2006.
The frauds
on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, and disgorgement
imposed. If that were so, they wouldn’t be worrying about who wins / loses
since those who fraudulently play, invariably would (and should) pay. If they’re not prosecuted, everyone
loses.
POST MORTEM
AND REVIEW Ricky:
A post mortem is in order. The elements of this
worldwide con game are remarkably simple, not complex at all. Apparently you
only need a few things to make a mockery of the entire global economic system,
and big banks garnered these few important things through “regulatory capture”:
1) Unregulated, unenforced rules (particularly for
derivatives)
2) license to “mark to model” (assign your own values to your assets)
3) ability to peg present value to irrational expected future returns (based on
unlimited, exponential growth)
4) infinite leverage (no effective requirements for reserve capital in
unregulated “shadow” markets)
5) massive size, so that the bank is "too big to fail"
6) non-transparency and non-accountability.
SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY!
THE FORECASTS:
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012
Russell Napier is the author of the book
“Anatomy of the Bear”, a professor at the Edinburgh Business School and a
consultant to CLSA Ltd. which is one of the top research houses in Asia.
Napier’s research indicates (and I paraphrase) that: The S&P 500 will
Decline to 400 by 2014 (the Dow 30 to 3800)
The S&P 500 will then undergo a major crash that will see U.S. equity
prices bottom at almost 50% below current levels (i.e. to 400 or less; the Dow
30 to 3800 or less) sometime around 2014 as Tobin’s “q” drops to 0.3 signaling
the end of the bear market, as it has done at the end of the four largest U.S.
market declines in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982.
U.S. Treasury Sales Collapse Leading to End of U.S. Dollar as Reserve Currency
Robert R.
Prechter Jr. is
author of a number of newsletters and books including “Elliott Wave Principle”
(1978) in which he predicted the super bull market of the 1980s; “At the Crest
of the Tidal Wave – A Forecast of the Great Bear Market” (1995) in which he
predicted a slow motion economic earthquake, brought about by a great asset
mania, that would register 11 on the financial Richter scale causing a collapse
of historic proportions; and “Conquer the Crash: You can Survive and Prosper in
a Deflationary Depression” (2002) in which he described the economic cataclysm
that we are just beginning to experience and advised how to position one’s self
financially during that period of time.
Depression is Imminent
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to
below 777 which was the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and
quite likely drop below 400 at one or more times during the bear market.
According to the Debt Clock:
• Total national debt: $13 trillion
• Debt per citizen: $42,026
• Debt per taxpayer: $117,982
• Total interest due: $1.9 trillion
• Interest per citizen: $2,211
Click here to see the Debt Clock, which is updated every
second.
• Total personal debt: $16.5 trillion
• Total mortgage debt: $14.1 trillion
• Total consumer debt: $2.45 trillion
• Personal debt per citizen: $53,483
• Debt held by foreign countries: $4.07
trillion
(Previously)
I’d say this alito vs. wobama is a tempest in a teapot inasmuch as alito is
more than just a lightweight, hack, liar, fraud etc., as set forth in the
comments. alito is a criminal who should have served / should be serving time
in prison for obstruction of justice, bribery, among other RICO violations. To
alito, drug money is as green as corporate money and worth his vote as well. In
addition to being an inept [I looked in on the one mob case he had brought,
bungled, lost (accidently on purpose?) since I was suing some mob-connected
under RICO and the court (I had known / previously met outside of court the
judge Ackerman through a client) was absolute bedlam and a total joke since
incompetent corrupt alito brought in all 20 mob defendants (rather than
prosecute one or a few to flip them first) who feigning illness had beds/cots
in the courtroom along with their moans during testimony and had the jury in
stitches)] and corrupt (see below and particularly the summary provided to the
FBI under penalty of perjury [ http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
] ) u.s.
attorney.
You’re
naďve to think that the so-called supreme court is any different from the rest
of the meaningfully lawless and pervasively corrupt american ‘system’. I knew
well an accomplished trial lawyer, fellow american college of trial lawyers /
and a bar examiner, who pondered from time to time becoming a judge “so he’d
never have to work again” – his words.
Some
comments on alito…all appropriate:
Probably the worst appointment in one
hundred years.
Posted by: mnjam
-----------------------
Really? That's a pretty sweeping
statement to make about someone who's only been on the court a short few years.
And I thought that liberals were in
universal agreement that Clarence Thomas was the worst appointment in all of
history?
Posted by: blert | January 28, 2010 2:11
AM | Report abuse
----------------------------
Yes. Really. Alito is a total lightweight and hack. He makes Thomas look like
John Marshall or Oliver Wendell Holmes. I KNOW ALITO.
Posted by: mnjam | January 28, 2010 2:24 AM |
the loser here is alito.lost his composure not good for a judge especially
afederal or supreme justice .loser big time this will live with guy for a very
time.roberts and the other justices will have a talk with him that is a
given.this relly larger than o one day news cycle.
Posted by: donaldtucker | January 28, 2010 1:12 AM |
Should Alito resign or be impeached?
Posted by: jdmca | January 28, 2010 1:05 AM |
I include the first two comments to the foregoing
headline:
Billo
Says:
June
11th, 2010 at 6:15 am
Lunacy?
Keep in mind that this country is run and controlled by lunatics. Our press
government and military seem to take their orders from Israel. Isarel wants to
be known as a pack of “mad dogs. Do we want “mad dogs” controlling us?
Here we see a bunch of phony accusations against Iran just
like we did in the run up to the bogus wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and now
Pakistan. The boy has cried wold ten thousand times. It’s time to identify the
“lunatics” and kindly take away the car keys. If you won’t let your friends drive
drunk, why do we let a bunch of “lunatic” enemies run this place.
Glen
Reply:
June
11th, 2010 at 6:47 am
Lunacy
it would be.
But
it is also to their great credit that the Iranians have not made their own
threats.
Everyone
knows there are 3 WMD threats, Nuclear Biological and chemical. The scariest of
which is Biological.
Any
attack done under the threat of immediate biological retaliation would deter
only the insane.
Watch
out america home of the insane, home of the leaders who want an 80% population
reduction.
The yardarm is the
remedy Dozens of our friends and comrades, of wonderful compassionate
activists are dead and wounded in the pirate attack in the high seas on
humanitarian aid boats. This is a dreadful crime that will forever be
remembered and should be punished. The Israeli pirates attacked the
humanitarian aid Freedom Flotilla in the international waters over 150 km out
of their territorial waters. The boats carried no arms; the participants
strictly adhered to Ghandian mode by asking the Greek and Cyprus authorities to
search the boats to avoid later claims that they were armed.
A
Plague Upon The World: The USA is a “Failed State” Dr. Paul Craig Roberts | The
American people are lost in la-la land. They have no idea that their civil
liberties have been forfeited. US
citizen killed on flotilla reportedly shot four times in head Raw Story | A forensic report said
Furkan Dogan was shot at close range, with four bullets in his head and one in
his chest, according to the Anatolian news agency. The explanation foisted off
on the americans by war criminal israelis is probably something on the order of
‘they just wanted to make sure they missed him’. Roberts:
‘AIPAC purchases US elections’ Russia Today | Paul Craig Roberts says that there will be
nothing that is going to be done by the United States to change the
relationship with Israel.
‘US
funding terrorist group against Iran’ Press TV | A member of a terrorist organization
operating in Iran says that a US State department radio station originally put
him in touch with the group.
3 SIGNS OF A SUCKER RALLY AFTER EXAMINING
TECHNICAL EVIDENCE, SENTIMENT INDICATORS AND VARIOUS VALUATION METRICS, IT
BECOMES OBVIOUS THAT THE RECENT BOUNCE PROVIDES A SELLING, NOT BUYING
OPPORTUNITY ...’
US STOCKS-Market slides, pressured by consumer, bank shares (at
Reuters)
STOCKS SLIDE, EXTENDING S&P'S DECLINE TO FOUR DAYS Midnight Trader 4:13 PM, Jun 24, 2010 --
GLOBAL SENTIMENT
UPSIDE MOVERS
(+) MIPI jumps on positive study data for Azedra.
(+) DFS gets upgraded.
(+) HAS jumps on report company to be taken private.
(-) OXGN says Zybrestat data to be presented.
(-) KMX upgraded.
DOWNSIDE MOVERS
(-) ADSK raises bottom end of Q2 guidance.
(-) LEN misses with revenue.
(-) NKE continues evening decline that followed
earnings.
(-) BBBY continues evening decline that followed
earnings.
(-) GENZ downgraded.
(-) CYAN earnings fall vs year-ago quarter.
MARKET DIRECTION
The leading stock averages close at or within a
whisker of day lows. For the broad S&P 500, its four-day slide is the
longest in seven weeks. Investors can't shake the pall of recent economic
reports and the Federal Reserve's lukewarm assessment of the recovery. The
decline comes despite data released this morning that showed unemployment
applications fell last week and durable goods orders, while declining, weren't
as bad as some analysts had predicted.
Both Nike (NKE)
and Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) remain lower late after their
respective earnings disappointments. Their performance rekindled concern for
consumer spending.
Uncertainty for financial shares as Congress irons
out a financial reform bill weighed on issues including Bank of America (BAC),
down 2.1%, and Citi (C), down 2.3%.
Morning economic data weren't abysmal but did little
to restore investor confidence.
The government said initial claims for unemployment
benefits fell to a seasonally adjusted 457,000 last week. That's slightly
better than the 460,000 forecast by economists polled by Thomson Reuters. But
claims are still above levels that would signal employers are picking up
hiring.
A second report showed orders for durable goods fell
last month for the first time in six months. Orders for big-ticket goods fell
1.1% in May, slightly better than the 1.3% drop predicted.
Commodities finished higher as both gold and crude
oil futures gained despite a rough start to the trading day.
Crude-oil for August delivery is up 0.2%, or $0.15,
to $76.51 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
In other energy futures, heating oil fell 0.94%, or
$0.02, to $2.04 a gallon while natural gas fell 1.44%, or $0.07, to $4.73 per
million British thermal units.
Meanwhile, gold for August delivery rose $11.10, or
0.96%, to $1,245.90 an ounce. In other metal futures, silver rose $0.26, or
1.38%, to $18.76 a troy ounce while copper rose $0.07 to $3.02 a pound.
Reports:
IAF Landed at Saudi Base, US Troops near Iran Border Arutz Sheva | The Israeli
Air Force recently unloaded military equipment at a Saudi Arabia base, a
semi-official Iranian news agency claimed Wednesday. It’s time for the world to
take a close look at the despotic, totalitarian regime that presently exists
for the grandeur and wealth of a few while hiding behind Islam as they betray
same and Muslims everywhere. The time has come for regime change in Saudi
Arabia to yield a nation of and for the people of Saudi Arabia and the glory of
Islam. Tehran
says will oppose ‘American forces’ in Karabakh Armenia Now | Iran will not allow a United
States-led military force to be deployed in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone
that immediately borders on its territory, according to the Islamic Republic’s
chief diplomat in Armenia.
Drudgereport: WSJNBCNEWS: Confidence Waning
in Obama, U.S. Outlook...
CHICAGOLAND
BOMBSHELL: Obama knew plot to trade Cabinet post for appointing Jarrett to
Senate -- Testimony...
RAHM DELIVERED THE
LIST...
BLAGO TAPE: Get
Obama to fundraise from Buffett, Gates...
Greece puts its
islands up for sale in futile attempt to save economy...
DEUTSCHE BANK says
US financial conditions are worse...
New home sales plunge 33%...
Record low...
GOV'T REPORT: 1,300 Inmates Got $9M in Homebuyer Tax
Credits...
OIL GUSH AFTER ROBOT CRASH...
Boat captain, despondent over
spill, commits suicide...
FEDERAL GOV'T HALTS SAND BERM DREDGING...
Thick pools of oil wash up
along Florida coast...
GEN. PRAYFORUS
JUNE: DEADLIEST MONTH...
Obama's choice suggests
longer troop presence...
FALLS ON THE SWORD:
McChrystal out...
Obama doubles down on war...
New General, Old Strategy...
Lebanon warns Israel against
attacking ships...
Pakistan resolute on Iran gas
deal; Defies US warning...
Connecticut
vegetable lieberman: China Can Shut Down The Internet, Why Can’t We … (great logic from a totalitarian zionist)? Senator joe Zelig the zionist israeli
lieberman, co-author of a bill that would give President Obama a ‘kill switch’ to shut down parts of
the Internet, attempted to reassure CNN viewers yesterday that concerns about
the government regulating free speech on the web were overblown, but he only
stoked more alarm by citing China, a country that censors all online dissent
against the state, as the model to which American should compare itself.
Soros
Says ‘We Have Just Entered Act II’ of Crisis Bloomberg | Soros said the current situation in
the world economy is “eerily” reminiscent of the 1930s. Gerald
Celente: U.S. Financial Markets to Collapse by End of 2010 Infowars.com | Gerald
Celente is a renowned trend forecaster, publisher of the Trends Journal,
business consultant and author who makes predictions about the global financial
markets and other events of historical importance. Jobless
Claims in U.S. Decreased Last Week to 456,000 Bloomberg |
More Americans than anticipated filed applications for unemployment benefits
last week.
Market Outlook: Bearish Background to Bullish Storyline Sean Hannon: ‘The last two weekly market
commentaries have discussed how the underlying trend of the market is now
bearish and all rallies should be used to sell stocks and reduce risks. With
nearly every news outlet spouting the bullish storyline, these articles served
as an outline of a disciplined investment strategy. Those who followed the
outline have done well as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow), S&P 500,
and NASDAQ each declined over 5% since my initial warning. With the Dow still
stuck below the psychologically important 10,000 level and all three major U.S.
markets trading beneath their 200-day moving averages (MA), the bearish
backdrop is clear. Even if many are still looking for a rally, we should
understand that the primary trend is lower. Instead of focusing on how high
prices will rally, we should instead consider how much further prices can fall
…’
Greek
Default Seen by Almost 75% in Poll Doubtful About Trichet Global investors have little confidence in
Europe’s efforts to contain its debt crisis or in European Central Bank
President Jean-Claude Trichet, with 73 percent calling a default by Greece
likely. 12
Reasons Why The U.S. Housing Crash Is Far From Over Over the past several months, many in the
mainstream media have hailed the slight improvement in the U.S. real estate
market as a “housing recovery”. US
Needs Austerity Too: Hedge Fund Strategist The United States will have to adopt austerity measures similar to
the ones taken in Europe, because the problems faced are largely the same,
Timothy Scala, macro-strategist at Sophis Investments, told CNBC.com. Market
Analyst: ‘BP’s Not Going to Last as a Company More Than a Matter of Months’ We’ve heard politicians, even conservative
Republicans, suggest BP would be held completely responsible for the
devastation caused by the oil spill plaguing the Gulf of Mexico, even if it
means its very existence.
US Media Terrified Of
Mentioning USS Liberty Do
you know that an american naval vessel was attacked by israel in international
waters, 43 years ago today, resulting in the deaths of dozens of american
sailors
Arab lawmaker on flotilla sparks outrage in israel (AP) - An Israeli-Arab lawmaker's
decision to join hundreds of activists on a pro-Palestinian flotilla has
elevated her from relative political obscurity, transforming her into the
poster child for the ...
DEBT POISED TO OVERTAKE GDP Key
Indicators of a New Depression Neeraj Chaudhary | Great Depression II developing into
something far more devastating than its predecessor You’re Being Decieved Infowars.com
| We’re heading over an economic cliff and there’s nothing the government can
or will do about it except lie. The
Folly of Blindly Trusting the Government
‘What Does China Want?’
They want to speak to Rosanne Rosanna Danna, of course! ‘Asian markets tumble
on fears over Hungary’ …Riiiiight! Hungary’s the thing! … Rosanne Rosanna
Danna, formerly of SNL fame wanted in Asia to chime in with what her mama
always used to say, ‘ It’s always something ‘ . Of course, it matters little to
the frauds on wall street what the something is said to be since the reality is
… ‘This is a global depression. This is a
secular bear market in a global depression. This was a manipulated bull (s***)
cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as
has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street
frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street
churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes.’ ( It should be noted, and there have
been a multitude of other instances, that I’m getting substantial ‘attacks’
vis-ŕ-vis my internet connection which has slowed dramatically these posts. I
don’t think the interference is either accidental nor just coincidental but
consistent with corrupt defacto bankrupt america’s critics of which I am one
and not alone in that regard – slowing, militating against the devastating
truth about america.) Europe
is Heading for a Depression Despite a nearly-$1 trillion rescue operation,
financial conditions in the eurozone continue to deteriorate. All the gauges of
market stress are edging upwards and credit default swaps (CDS) spreads have
widened to levels not seen since the weekend of the emergency euro-summit. Key
Indicators of a New Depression With the mainstream media focusing on the
country’s leveling unemployment rate, improving retail sales, and nascent
housing recovery, one might think that the US government has successfully
navigated the economy through recession and growth has returned. Get
Ready for a Double Dip … but many warning flags point
towards significant deterioration in the U.S. and global economy going forward
and so I think that by the end of the year or early 2011, we could very well be
facing a new leg down in the world’s economic situation … [I’d say too
optimistic since, to reiterate: This is a
global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. This
was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a
typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great
regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into.
This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud
as in prior crashes.]
european central banks intervened to shore up
the ever more worthless euro, buying into that fraudulent wall street b*** s***
story that that ‘s a good thing, rallying stocks off their lows. It is amazing
how dumb europe has become so quickly. An exception is what I believe was
Germany’s steps against derivatives, which market according to a derivatives
trader on the radio this day is a $40 trillion market (missed his name). To
reiterate as applicable to yet another fraudulent scheme previously stated,
said market is paper on paper moving around and generating commissions at
lightning computerized speed but adding no real value in real economic terms;
again, the analogy of termites eating away at the (nation’s) foundation is
apposite. As such, that money has to come from some real place and hence, the
ever more frequent and larger crashes we are seeing. Don’t forget that the
worthless paper from previous such fraudulent schemes now marked to anything is
still out there in a magnitude some have placed in the hundreds of trillions.
The
Worst Money Supply Plunge Since The Depression Means A Double Dip Is Now A
‘Virtual Certainty’ The stock of
U.S. money as measured by ‘M3′ money supply fell to $13.9 trillion from $14.2
trillion during the three months ending in April. [ This
is still an extraordinarily high level but … I don’t buy it. I believe the
printing presses have been working overtime to pump out ever more worthless
fiat currency and with the many trillions of worthless fraudulent paper still
out there and marked to anything. I further believe the same is being
surreptitiously used to supplant the fraudulent paper, the consequences of
which will be devastating, of course, as is invariably so in depressions in any
event. This scenario would also mean huge fraud accomplis. ] Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level The bankster operative who helped destroy
Glass-Steagall is back. Larry Summers, Obama’s top economic adviser, has told
Congress to “grit its teeth” and approve a fresh fiscal boost of $200 billion
to keep growth on track, reports the Daily Telegraph. Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level Kurt Nimmo | The Federal Reserve
stopped publishing M3 figures back in 2006.
The frauds
on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, and disgorgement
imposed. If that were so, they wouldn’t be worrying about who wins / loses
since those who fraudulently play, invariably would (and should) pay. If they’re not prosecuted, everyone
loses.
POST MORTEM
AND REVIEW Ricky:
A post mortem is in order. The elements of this
worldwide con game are remarkably simple, not complex at all. Apparently you
only need a few things to make a mockery of the entire global economic system,
and big banks garnered these few important things through “regulatory capture”:
1) Unregulated, unenforced rules (particularly for
derivatives)
2) license to “mark to model” (assign your own values to your assets)
3) ability to peg present value to irrational expected future returns (based on
unlimited, exponential growth)
4) infinite leverage (no effective requirements for reserve capital in
unregulated “shadow” markets)
5) massive size, so that the bank is "too big to fail"
6) non-transparency and non-accountability.
SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY!
THE FORECASTS:
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012
Russell Napier is the author of the book
“Anatomy of the Bear”, a professor at the Edinburgh Business School and a
consultant to CLSA Ltd. which is one of the top research houses in Asia.
Napier’s research indicates (and I paraphrase) that: The S&P 500 will
Decline to 400 by 2014 (the Dow 30 to 3800)
The S&P 500 will then undergo a major crash that will see U.S. equity
prices bottom at almost 50% below current levels (i.e. to 400 or less; the Dow
30 to 3800 or less) sometime around 2014 as Tobin’s “q” drops to 0.3 signaling
the end of the bear market, as it has done at the end of the four largest U.S.
market declines in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982.
U.S. Treasury Sales Collapse Leading to End of U.S. Dollar as Reserve Currency
Robert R.
Prechter Jr. is
author of a number of newsletters and books including “Elliott Wave Principle”
(1978) in which he predicted the super bull market of the 1980s; “At the Crest
of the Tidal Wave – A Forecast of the Great Bear Market” (1995) in which he
predicted a slow motion economic earthquake, brought about by a great asset
mania, that would register 11 on the financial Richter scale causing a collapse
of historic proportions; and “Conquer the Crash: You can Survive and Prosper in
a Deflationary Depression” (2002) in which he described the economic cataclysm
that we are just beginning to experience and advised how to position one’s self
financially during that period of time.
Depression is Imminent
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to
below 777 which was the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and
quite likely drop below 400 at one or more times during the bear market.
According to the Debt Clock:
• Total national debt: $13 trillion
• Debt per citizen: $42,026
• Debt per taxpayer: $117,982
• Total interest due: $1.9 trillion
• Interest per citizen: $2,211
Click here to see the Debt Clock, which is updated every second.
• Total personal debt: $16.5 trillion
• Total mortgage debt: $14.1 trillion
• Total consumer debt: $2.45 trillion
• Personal debt per citizen: $53,483
• Debt held by foreign countries: $4.07
trillion
(Previously)
I’d say this alito vs. wobama is a tempest in a teapot inasmuch as alito is
more than just a lightweight, hack, liar, fraud etc., as set forth in the
comments. alito is a criminal who should have served / should be serving time
in prison for obstruction of justice, bribery, among other RICO violations. To
alito, drug money is as green as corporate money and worth his vote as well. In
addition to being an inept [I looked in on the one mob case he had brought,
bungled, lost (accidently on purpose?) since I was suing some mob-connected
under RICO and the court (I had known / previously met outside of court the
judge Ackerman through a client) was absolute bedlam and a total joke since
incompetent corrupt alito brought in all 20 mob defendants (rather than
prosecute one or a few to flip them first) who feigning illness had beds/cots
in the courtroom along with their moans during testimony and had the jury in
stitches)] and corrupt (see below and particularly the summary provided to the FBI
under penalty of perjury [ http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
] ) u.s.
attorney.
You’re
naďve to think that the so-called supreme court is any different from the rest
of the meaningfully lawless and pervasively corrupt american ‘system’. I knew
well an accomplished trial lawyer, fellow american college of trial lawyers /
and a bar examiner, who pondered from time to time becoming a judge “so he’d
never have to work again” – his words.
Some
comments on alito…all appropriate:
Probably the worst appointment in one
hundred years.
Posted by: mnjam
-----------------------
Really? That's a pretty sweeping
statement to make about someone who's only been on the court a short few years.
And I thought that liberals were in
universal agreement that Clarence Thomas was the worst appointment in all of
history?
Posted by: blert | January 28, 2010 2:11
AM | Report abuse
----------------------------
Yes. Really. Alito is a total lightweight and hack. He makes Thomas look like
John Marshall or Oliver Wendell Holmes. I KNOW ALITO.
Posted by: mnjam | January 28, 2010 2:24 AM |
the loser here is alito.lost his composure not good for a judge especially
afederal or supreme justice .loser big time this will live with guy for a very
time.roberts and the other justices will have a talk with him that is a
given.this relly larger than o one day news cycle.
Posted by: donaldtucker | January 28, 2010 1:12 AM |
Should Alito resign or be impeached?
Posted by: jdmca | January 28, 2010 1:05 AM |
I include the first two comments to the foregoing
headline:
Billo
Says:
June
11th, 2010 at 6:15 am
Lunacy?
Keep in mind that this country is run and controlled by lunatics. Our press
government and military seem to take their orders from Israel. Isarel wants to
be known as a pack of “mad dogs. Do we want “mad dogs” controlling us?
Here we see a bunch of phony accusations against Iran just
like we did in the run up to the bogus wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and now
Pakistan. The boy has cried wold ten thousand times. It’s time to identify the
“lunatics” and kindly take away the car keys. If you won’t let your friends
drive drunk, why do we let a bunch of “lunatic” enemies run this place.
Glen
Reply:
June
11th, 2010 at 6:47 am
Lunacy
it would be.
But
it is also to their great credit that the Iranians have not made their own
threats.
Everyone
knows there are 3 WMD threats, Nuclear Biological and chemical. The scariest of
which is Biological.
Any
attack done under the threat of immediate biological retaliation would deter
only the insane.
Watch
out america home of the insane, home of the leaders who want an 80% population
reduction.
The yardarm is the
remedy Dozens of our friends and comrades, of wonderful compassionate
activists are dead and wounded in the pirate attack in the high seas on
humanitarian aid boats. This is a dreadful crime that will forever be
remembered and should be punished. The Israeli pirates attacked the
humanitarian aid Freedom Flotilla in the international waters over 150 km out
of their territorial waters. The boats carried no arms; the participants
strictly adhered to Ghandian mode by asking the Greek and Cyprus authorities to
search the boats to avoid later claims that they were armed.
A
Plague Upon The World: The USA is a “Failed State” Dr. Paul Craig Roberts | The
American people are lost in la-la land. They have no idea that their civil
liberties have been forfeited. US
citizen killed on flotilla reportedly shot four times in head Raw Story | A forensic report said
Furkan Dogan was shot at close range, with four bullets in his head and one in
his chest, according to the Anatolian news agency. The explanation foisted off
on the americans by war criminal israelis is probably something on the order of
‘they just wanted to make sure they missed him’. Roberts:
‘AIPAC purchases US elections’ Russia Today | Paul Craig Roberts says that there will be
nothing that is going to be done by the United States to change the
relationship with Israel.
‘US
funding terrorist group against Iran’ Press TV | A member of a terrorist organization
operating in Iran says that a US State department radio station originally put
him in touch with the group.
Stocks fall on home sales slump, cautious Fed view (AP) Oil spews again in Gulf after robot bumps cap (AP) Without
Tax Credit, New-Home Demand Takes 33% Tumble (Investor's Business Daily) Big
Banks' Lending Programs Yielding Few Results So Far (at The Wall Street
Journal)
New-Home Sales Bust: Dave's Daily - ‘Yes, today was pretty boring.
Interesting stat of the day was from New-Home Sales which were supposed to come
in around 430K but only showed 300K--a rather large miss. But, bulls were
undaunted early and had things well camped prior to Ben & Co's
non-announcement. After parsing the language, talking heads found less
enthusiasm regarding the economy. I guess FOMC governors have read current data
just like you and me. Anyway, Fannie and Freddie are getting tough on home
borrowers by suing borrowers who strategically default
on their loans to recoup the outstanding mortgage debt in jurisdictions that
allow for deficiency judgments. More than $27 million paid in fraudulent claims
for housing break and of those 241 were prisoners serving life sentences! Oh,
and here's a change; FNM and FRE are implementing changes that might surprise
you via Yahoo/Finance: Q. How would the bill
improve mortgage lending? A.
Most of all, lenders could no longer make a loan without verifying that the
borrower can repay it. They would need to review the borrower's income, credit
history and employment status. That might sound obvious. But lenders weren't
required to do so in the past. Also from the bad news department came
word of more oil gushing into the Gulf as a robot struck the cap forcing it to
break. The best news of the day came from the U.S. soccer team which scored a
goal despite dreadful officiating again to advance to the final round. Do you
care? More real economic news will be featured Thursday as Durable Goods orders
and Jobless Claims will be front and center. Volume was again a little heavier
on another down day and breadth remains negative …’
Simon Avery: ‘North American stocks bounced up and down on various
economic signals from the U.S. on Wednesday. Stocks swung into positive
territory in the afternoon after the U.S. Federal Reserve concluded its two-day
meeting on monetary policy. As expected, the Fed left its key interest rate
unchanged and maintained its statement that low rates will be needed for “an extended period." The central bank's
acknowledgement that a number of global setbacks are weighing on the economy
seemed to buoy investors, with the implication that the Fed is nowhere close to
revising its position on record low rates. Stocks had sunk during earlier
trading after the U.S. Commerce Department said sales of new homes fell 33 per
cent in May, to the lowest level on record, as potential buyers stopped
shopping for homes once they could no longer receive government tax credits ...
Drudgereport: WSJNBCNEWS: Confidence Waning
in Obama, U.S. Outlook...
New home sales plunge 33%...
Record low...
GOV'T REPORT: 1,300 Inmates Got $9M in Homebuyer Tax
Credits...
OIL GUSH AFTER ROBOT CRASH...
Boat captain, despondent over
spill, commits suicide...
FEDERAL GOV'T HALTS SAND BERM DREDGING...
Thick pools of oil wash up
along Florida coast...
FALLS ON THE SWORD:
McChrystal out...
Obama doubles down on war...
New General, Old Strategy...
Lebanon warns Israel against
attacking ships...
Pakistan resolute on Iran gas
deal; Defies US warning...
Connecticut
vegetable lieberman: China Can Shut Down The Internet, Why Can’t We … (great logic from a totalitarian zionist)? Senator joe Zelig the zionist israeli
lieberman, co-author of a bill that would give President Obama a ‘kill switch’ to shut down parts of
the Internet, attempted to reassure CNN viewers yesterday that concerns about
the government regulating free speech on the web were overblown, but he only
stoked more alarm by citing China, a country that censors all online dissent
against the state, as the model to which American should compare itself.
Buying Opportunity or Sucker Rally? : ‘As the captain of a large vessel
navigates through high seas, he spots a light on a collision course. 'Change
your course 10 degrees East' he signals. 'You change your course 10 degrees
West' he gets in return. His reply: 'I am a Navy officer, so you change
your course' is met by 'I am a seaman of second degree, you change your course'.
The captain is furious and sends his final warning, 'I am a battleship and
won't change my course'. Is there any reply that would change the captain's
mind? The final signal received is: 'I am a light house, your call'. … NEW HIGHS OR BEAR MARKET TRAP? … One of the headlines in the Wall Street Journal read that
'Technical analysts see room to roll.' Quite to the contrary, the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter noted on April 28, that 'the potential
exists, that Monday's high - which was only one point short of the 61.8%
Fibonacci retracement at 1,220 - marked a significant top. A significant top
implies a significant drop. How significant? The latest issue of the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter provides a detailed analysis along with a
termination range for this rally, the ultimate target range for a market
bottom, and the one chart that illustrates the bleak future outlook’.
Stocks slide on new concerns about housing, banks (AP) Summary Box: Home sales dip as market struggles (AP) Stock Averages Slip as Losses Accelerate Late Midnight Trader
4:20 PM, Jun 22, 2010 --
GLOBAL SENTIMENT
UPSIDE MOVERS
(+) EXTR tapped by Austrian Ministry of
Interior for new contract.
(+) PX, ESLR ink pact to supply
industrial gases.
(+) PLUG fuel cell units to power
Walmart Canada's electric lift trucks.
(+) ALNY, ISIS to get payment from
alliance with Sanofi-Aventis.
(+) AONE gets upgrade.
(+) RBS, LYG gaining as UK details
emergency budget.
(+) ASTI secures new contracts.
(+) OXGN reports positive data from
study in opthalmology program.
(+) AFFY gets milestone payments in
trial of Hematide/peginesatide.
(+) JEF results top year-ago period.
(+) ETRM issues positive comments on
obesity study.
(+) INXI may continue evening slide;
update this morning says revenue error review to take weeks, not months,
expects to report higher bookings.
DOWNSIDE MOVERS
(-) CAT CEO says exports will jump 65%.
(-) WAG just beats with Q3 sales, shy
with EPS.
(-) URRE prices shares.
(-) NBG downgraded.
(-) AEG weighing options for life
reinsurance unit and to cut costs by 25% in U.K.
(-) MIPI extends waiver agreement with
bond holders.
(-) XOMA reports positive results in
mouse model of diet-induced obesity.
(-) LXRX reports positive study data.
MARKET DIRECTION
Stocks pushed deeper into negative
territory late in Tuesday's session, with materials and energy stocks among the
leading decliners. A disappointing housing report and renewed attention on the
health of banks fueled the negative mood.
Earlier in the day, the National
Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes fell 2.2% in May.
The report surprised analysts who thought deals would get a lift from a
homebuyer tax credit. Sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.66
million from a revised 5.79 million in April.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency
reported that its purchase-only home-price index is down 12.8% from the peak in
2007. The federal tax credit for home buyers helped lift prices, the FHFA said.
The Federal Reserve began a two-day
policy meeting expected to close Wednesday with no change to record-low rates.
Energy shares fell as the White House
vowed to fight a court ruling against the offshore drilling moratorium.
Tech shares eased but held up much
better than the broader market. Apple (AAPL) was up some 1% after saying it sold 3
million iPads in the first 80 days the tablet computers were on sale in the
U.S.
Shares of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) firmed after the company signed an
agreement to pay Stockholm-based Diamyd Medical $45 million to work together on
developing a type 1 diabetes treatment, according to TheStreet.com.
Apple (AAPL) gains after announcing it sold three
million iPad tablets as of yesterday, the 80th day since the computer maker
launched the product, it said in a statement Tuesday. Apple is set to introduce
the iPad in nine more countries next month, the statement said. Apple also got
a boost from Deutsche Bank, which lifted its estimates on product shipments and
2010-11 EPS.
In consumer shares, Walgreen Co. (WAG) fell after it reported that its Duane
Reed acquisition, a weak economy, lower reimbursement rates and fewer new
low-cost generic drugs cut into Q3 profits. The company reported a net of $463
million, or 47 cents per share compared with $522 million, or 53 cents per
share, a year ago when swine flu concerns help boost revenues. Excluding items,
Walgreen earned 54 cents per share, disappointing analysts, who were looking
for 57 cents, according to a Thomson Reuters poll.
Commodities finished mixed as gold
gained ground while crude oil futures finished in the red.
Crude-oil for July delivery was down
1%, or $0.76, to $77.85 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
In other energy futures, heating oil fell
1.55%, or $0.03, to $2.11 a gallon while natural gas fell 1.72%, or $0.08, to
$4.79 per million British thermal units.
Meanwhile, gold for August delivery rose $0.10 to $1,240.80 an
ounce. In other metal futures, silver rose $0.03, or 0.14%, to $18.88 while
copper rose $0.03 to $2.98 a pound.
Connecticut
vegetable lieberman: China Can Shut Down The Internet, Why Can’t We … (great logic from a totalitarian zionist)? Senator joe Zelig the zionist israeli
lieberman, co-author of a bill that would give President Obama a ‘kill switch’ to shut down parts of
the Internet, attempted to reassure CNN viewers yesterday that concerns about
the government regulating free speech on the web were overblown, but he only
stoked more alarm by citing China, a country that censors all online dissent
against the state, as the model to which American should compare itself.
Soros
Says ‘We Have Just Entered Act II’ of Crisis Bloomberg | Soros said the current situation in
the world economy is “eerily” reminiscent of the 1930s. Gerald
Celente: U.S. Financial Markets to Collapse by End of 2010 Infowars.com | Gerald
Celente is a renowned trend forecaster, publisher of the Trends Journal,
business consultant and author who makes predictions about the global financial
markets and other events of historical importance. Jobless
Claims in U.S. Decreased Last Week to 456,000 Bloomberg |
More Americans than anticipated filed applications for unemployment benefits
last week.
Market Outlook: Bearish Background to Bullish Storyline Sean Hannon: ‘The last two weekly market
commentaries have discussed how the underlying trend of the market is now
bearish and all rallies should be used to sell stocks and reduce risks. With
nearly every news outlet spouting the bullish storyline, these articles served
as an outline of a disciplined investment strategy. Those who followed the
outline have done well as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow), S&P 500,
and NASDAQ each declined over 5% since my initial warning. With the Dow still
stuck below the psychologically important 10,000 level and all three major U.S.
markets trading beneath their 200-day moving averages (MA), the bearish
backdrop is clear. Even if many are still looking for a rally, we should
understand that the primary trend is lower. Instead of focusing on how high
prices will rally, we should instead consider how much further prices can fall
…’
Greek
Default Seen by Almost 75% in Poll Doubtful About Trichet Global investors have little confidence in
Europe’s efforts to contain its debt crisis or in European Central Bank
President Jean-Claude Trichet, with 73 percent calling a default by Greece
likely. 12
Reasons Why The U.S. Housing Crash Is Far From Over Over the past several months, many in the
mainstream media have hailed the slight improvement in the U.S. real estate
market as a “housing recovery”. US
Needs Austerity Too: Hedge Fund Strategist The United States will have to adopt austerity measures similar to
the ones taken in Europe, because the problems faced are largely the same,
Timothy Scala, macro-strategist at Sophis Investments, told CNBC.com. Market
Analyst: ‘BP’s Not Going to Last as a Company More Than a Matter of Months’ We’ve heard politicians, even conservative
Republicans, suggest BP would be held completely responsible for the
devastation caused by the oil spill plaguing the Gulf of Mexico, even if it
means its very existence.
US Media Terrified Of
Mentioning USS Liberty Do you
know that an american naval vessel was attacked by israel in international
waters, 43 years ago today, resulting in the deaths of dozens of american
sailors
Arab lawmaker on flotilla sparks outrage in israel (AP) - An Israeli-Arab lawmaker's
decision to join hundreds of activists on a pro-Palestinian flotilla has
elevated her from relative political obscurity, transforming her into the
poster child for the ...
DEBT POISED TO OVERTAKE GDP Key
Indicators of a New Depression Neeraj Chaudhary | Great Depression II developing into
something far more devastating than its predecessor You’re Being Decieved Infowars.com
| We’re heading over an economic cliff and there’s nothing the government can
or will do about it except lie. The
Folly of Blindly Trusting the Government
‘What Does China Want?’
They want to speak to Rosanne Rosanna Danna, of course! ‘Asian markets tumble
on fears over Hungary’ …Riiiiight! Hungary’s the thing! … Rosanne Rosanna
Danna, formerly of SNL fame wanted in Asia to chime in with what her mama
always used to say, ‘ It’s always something ‘ . Of course, it matters little to
the frauds on wall street what the something is said to be since the reality is
… ‘This is a global depression. This is a
secular bear market in a global depression. This was a manipulated bull (s***)
cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as
has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street
frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street
churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes.’ ( It should be noted, and there have
been a multitude of other instances, that I’m getting substantial ‘attacks’
vis-ŕ-vis my internet connection which has slowed dramatically these posts. I
don’t think the interference is either accidental nor just coincidental but
consistent with corrupt defacto bankrupt america’s critics of which I am one
and not alone in that regard – slowing, militating against the devastating
truth about america.) Europe
is Heading for a Depression Despite a nearly-$1 trillion rescue operation,
financial conditions in the eurozone continue to deteriorate. All the gauges of
market stress are edging upwards and credit default swaps (CDS) spreads have
widened to levels not seen since the weekend of the emergency euro-summit. Key
Indicators of a New Depression With the mainstream media focusing on the
country’s leveling unemployment rate, improving retail sales, and nascent
housing recovery, one might think that the US government has successfully
navigated the economy through recession and growth has returned. Get
Ready for a Double Dip … but many warning flags point
towards significant deterioration in the U.S. and global economy going forward
and so I think that by the end of the year or early 2011, we could very well be
facing a new leg down in the world’s economic situation … [I’d say too
optimistic since, to reiterate: This is a
global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. This
was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a
typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great
regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into.
This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud
as in prior crashes.]
european central banks intervened to shore up
the ever more worthless euro, buying into that fraudulent wall street b*** s***
story that that ‘s a good thing, rallying stocks off their lows. It is amazing
how dumb europe has become so quickly. An exception is what I believe was
Germany’s steps against derivatives, which market according to a derivatives
trader on the radio this day is a $40 trillion market (missed his name). To
reiterate as applicable to yet another fraudulent scheme previously stated,
said market is paper on paper moving around and generating commissions at
lightning computerized speed but adding no real value in real economic terms;
again, the analogy of termites eating away at the (nation’s) foundation is
apposite. As such, that money has to come from some real place and hence, the
ever more frequent and larger crashes we are seeing. Don’t forget that the
worthless paper from previous such fraudulent schemes now marked to anything is
still out there in a magnitude some have placed in the hundreds of trillions.
The
Worst Money Supply Plunge Since The Depression Means A Double Dip Is Now A
‘Virtual Certainty’ The stock of
U.S. money as measured by ‘M3′ money supply fell to $13.9 trillion from $14.2
trillion during the three months ending in April. [ This
is still an extraordinarily high level but … I don’t buy it. I believe the
printing presses have been working overtime to pump out ever more worthless
fiat currency and with the many trillions of worthless fraudulent paper still
out there and marked to anything. I further believe the same is being
surreptitiously used to supplant the fraudulent paper, the consequences of
which will be devastating, of course, as is invariably so in depressions in any
event. This scenario would also mean huge fraud accomplis. ] Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level The bankster operative who helped destroy
Glass-Steagall is back. Larry Summers, Obama’s top economic adviser, has told
Congress to “grit its teeth” and approve a fresh fiscal boost of $200 billion
to keep growth on track, reports the Daily Telegraph. Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level Kurt Nimmo | The Federal Reserve
stopped publishing M3 figures back in 2006.
The frauds
on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, and disgorgement
imposed. If that were so, they wouldn’t be worrying about who wins / loses
since those who fraudulently play, invariably would (and should) pay. If they’re not prosecuted, everyone
loses.
POST MORTEM
AND REVIEW Ricky:
A post mortem is in order. The elements of this
worldwide con game are remarkably simple, not complex at all. Apparently you
only need a few things to make a mockery of the entire global economic system,
and big banks garnered these few important things through “regulatory capture”:
1) Unregulated, unenforced rules (particularly for
derivatives)
2) license to “mark to model” (assign your own values to your assets)
3) ability to peg present value to irrational expected future returns (based on
unlimited, exponential growth)
4) infinite leverage (no effective requirements for reserve capital in
unregulated “shadow” markets)
5) massive size, so that the bank is "too big to fail"
6) non-transparency and non-accountability.
SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY!
THE FORECASTS:
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012
Russell Napier is the author of the book
“Anatomy of the Bear”, a professor at the Edinburgh Business School and a
consultant to CLSA Ltd. which is one of the top research houses in Asia.
Napier’s research indicates (and I paraphrase) that: The S&P 500 will
Decline to 400 by 2014 (the Dow 30 to 3800)
The S&P 500 will then undergo a major crash that will see U.S. equity
prices bottom at almost 50% below current levels (i.e. to 400 or less; the Dow
30 to 3800 or less) sometime around 2014 as Tobin’s “q” drops to 0.3 signaling
the end of the bear market, as it has done at the end of the four largest U.S.
market declines in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982.
U.S. Treasury Sales Collapse Leading to End of U.S. Dollar as Reserve Currency
Robert R.
Prechter Jr. is
author of a number of newsletters and books including “Elliott Wave Principle”
(1978) in which he predicted the super bull market of the 1980s; “At the Crest
of the Tidal Wave – A Forecast of the Great Bear Market” (1995) in which he
predicted a slow motion economic earthquake, brought about by a great asset mania,
that would register 11 on the financial Richter scale causing a collapse of
historic proportions; and “Conquer the Crash: You can Survive and Prosper in a
Deflationary Depression” (2002) in which he described the economic cataclysm
that we are just beginning to experience and advised how to position one’s self
financially during that period of time.
Depression is Imminent
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to
below 777 which was the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and
quite likely drop below 400 at one or more times during the bear market.
According to the Debt Clock:
• Total national debt: $13 trillion
• Debt per citizen: $42,026
• Debt per taxpayer: $117,982
• Total interest due: $1.9 trillion
• Interest per citizen: $2,211
Click here to see the Debt Clock, which is updated every
second.
• Total personal debt: $16.5 trillion
• Total mortgage debt: $14.1 trillion
• Total consumer debt: $2.45 trillion
• Personal debt per citizen: $53,483
• Debt held by foreign countries: $4.07
trillion
(Previously)
I’d say this alito vs. wobama is a tempest in a teapot inasmuch as alito is
more than just a lightweight, hack, liar, fraud etc., as set forth in the
comments. alito is a criminal who should have served / should be serving time
in prison for obstruction of justice, bribery, among other RICO violations. To
alito, drug money is as green as corporate money and worth his vote as well. In
addition to being an inept [I looked in on the one mob case he had brought,
bungled, lost (accidently on purpose?) since I was suing some mob-connected
under RICO and the court (I had known / previously met outside of court the
judge Ackerman through a client) was absolute bedlam and a total joke since
incompetent corrupt alito brought in all 20 mob defendants (rather than
prosecute one or a few to flip them first) who feigning illness had beds/cots
in the courtroom along with their moans during testimony and had the jury in
stitches)] and corrupt (see below and particularly the summary provided to the
FBI under penalty of perjury [ http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
] ) u.s. attorney.
You’re
naďve to think that the so-called supreme court is any different from the rest
of the meaningfully lawless and pervasively corrupt american ‘system’. I knew
well an accomplished trial lawyer, fellow american college of trial lawyers /
and a bar examiner, who pondered from time to time becoming a judge “so he’d
never have to work again” – his words.
Some
comments on alito…all appropriate:
Probably the worst appointment in one
hundred years.
Posted by: mnjam
-----------------------
Really? That's a pretty sweeping
statement to make about someone who's only been on the court a short few years.
And I thought that liberals were in
universal agreement that Clarence Thomas was the worst appointment in all of
history?
Posted by: blert | January 28, 2010 2:11
AM | Report abuse
----------------------------
Yes. Really. Alito is a total lightweight and hack. He makes Thomas look like
John Marshall or Oliver Wendell Holmes. I KNOW ALITO.
Posted by: mnjam | January 28, 2010 2:24 AM |
the loser here is alito.lost his composure not good for a judge especially
afederal or supreme justice .loser big time this will live with guy for a very
time.roberts and the other justices will have a talk with him that is a
given.this relly larger than o one day news cycle.
Posted by: donaldtucker | January 28, 2010 1:12 AM |
Should Alito resign or be impeached?
Posted by: jdmca | January 28, 2010 1:05 AM |
I include the first two comments to the foregoing
headline:
Billo
Says:
June
11th, 2010 at 6:15 am
Lunacy?
Keep in mind that this country is run and controlled by lunatics. Our press
government and military seem to take their orders from Israel. Isarel wants to
be known as a pack of “mad dogs. Do we want “mad dogs” controlling us?
Here we see a bunch of phony accusations against Iran just
like we did in the run up to the bogus wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and now
Pakistan. The boy has cried wold ten thousand times. It’s time to identify the
“lunatics” and kindly take away the car keys. If you won’t let your friends
drive drunk, why do we let a bunch of “lunatic” enemies run this place.
Glen
Reply:
June
11th, 2010 at 6:47 am
Lunacy
it would be.
But
it is also to their great credit that the Iranians have not made their own
threats.
Everyone
knows there are 3 WMD threats, Nuclear Biological and chemical. The scariest of
which is Biological.
Any
attack done under the threat of immediate biological retaliation would deter
only the insane.
Watch
out america home of the insane, home of the leaders who want an 80% population
reduction.
The yardarm is the
remedy Dozens of our friends and comrades, of wonderful compassionate
activists are dead and wounded in the pirate attack in the high seas on
humanitarian aid boats. This is a dreadful crime that will forever be
remembered and should be punished. The Israeli pirates attacked the
humanitarian aid Freedom Flotilla in the international waters over 150 km out
of their territorial waters. The boats carried no arms; the participants
strictly adhered to Ghandian mode by asking the Greek and Cyprus authorities to
search the boats to avoid later claims that they were armed.
A
Plague Upon The World: The USA is a “Failed State” Dr. Paul Craig Roberts | The
American people are lost in la-la land. They have no idea that their civil
liberties have been forfeited. US
citizen killed on flotilla reportedly shot four times in head Raw Story | A forensic report said
Furkan Dogan was shot at close range, with four bullets in his head and one in
his chest, according to the Anatolian news agency. The explanation foisted off
on the americans by war criminal israelis is probably something on the order of
‘they just wanted to make sure they missed him’. Roberts:
‘AIPAC purchases US elections’ Russia Today | Paul Craig Roberts says that there will be
nothing that is going to be done by the United States to change the
relationship with Israel.
‘US
funding terrorist group against Iran’ Press TV | A member of a terrorist organization
operating in Iran says that a US State department radio station originally put
him in touch with the group.
Federal
Reserve Very Concerned About Double Dip Recession Economic Policy Journal | The Federal Reserve appears to have serious
concerns that the economy is heading into a double dip recession. Food
prices to rise by up to 40% over next decade, UN report warns The Guardian | The forecasts are for wheat and coarse grain
prices over the next 10 years to be between 15% and 40% higher in real
terms. The Next Housing Crisis Mike Whitney | More than 7 million homeowners have already
stopped paying their mortgages which means that the inventory-pipeline will be
bulging for years to come.
LOBOTOMY JOE BIDEN: 'I'M A POLITICAN, AND AM PROUD
OF IT!' … riiiiight joe, anything you say ...
Iowa Republican: Obama favors blacks over whites (AP) - AP - Democrats on Tuesday denounced an Iowa
Republican congressman who says President Barack Obama favors blacks over
whites, and a GOP candidate from Colorado canceled a fundraiser the Iowan was
to k... Federal
Judge Cites Voting Rights Act to Rig Election in New York State Kurt Nimmo | In Port Chester, New York, some people are more
equal than others depending on their ethnic and racial status.
$34
Billion Asset Manager Says Market Prices Are Manipulated, Accuses NYSE Of
Intellectual Property Theft, Debunks HFT “Liquidity Provider” Lies As part of the SEC’s process to fix the
broken market, it is currently soliciting public feedback on a variety of
issues. Why it is doing so, we don’t know – after all anything that does not
conform to the SEC’s preconception of what the most lucrative market to the
SEC’s recent batch of clients (see earlier news about an SEC director going to
HFT specialist Getco) is, just ends up in the shredder anyway
Soros
Says ‘We Have Just Entered Act II’ of Crisis Bloomberg | Soros said the current situation in the world economy is
“eerily” reminiscent of the 1930s. Gerald
Celente: U.S. Financial Markets to Collapse by End of 2010 Infowars.com | Gerald Celente is a renowned
trend forecaster, publisher of the Trends Journal, business consultant and
author who makes predictions about the global financial markets and other
events of historical importance. Jobless
Claims in U.S. Decreased Last Week to 456,000 Bloomberg | More Americans than anticipated
filed applications for unemployment benefits last week.
Market Outlook: Bearish Background to Bullish Storyline Sean Hannon: ‘The last two weekly market
commentaries have discussed how the underlying trend of the market is now
bearish and all rallies should be used to sell stocks and reduce risks. With
nearly every news outlet spouting the bullish storyline, these articles served
as an outline of a disciplined investment strategy. Those who followed the
outline have done well as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow), S&P 500,
and NASDAQ each declined over 5% since my initial warning. With the Dow still
stuck below the psychologically important 10,000 level and all three major U.S.
markets trading beneath their 200-day moving averages (MA), the bearish backdrop
is clear. Even if many are still looking for a rally, we should understand that
the primary trend is lower. Instead of focusing on how high prices will rally,
we should instead consider how much further prices can fall …’
Bearish Sentiment Rises to Eleven Month High – Bespoke Investment Group: ‘This
week's sentiment survey from Investors Intelligence showed that
bearish sentiment among newsletter writers is now up to 31.9% which is an
eleven month high. Although the levels of bearish sentiment are still nowhere
near the extreme highs we saw during the last bear market, the inability of
stocks to 'snap back' from the recent declines certainly has advisors on edge …’
US Media Terrified Of
Mentioning USS Liberty Do
you know that an american naval vessel was attacked by israel in international
waters, 43 years ago today, resulting in the deaths of dozens of american
sailors Arab
lawmaker on flotilla sparks outrage in israel (AP) - An
Israeli-Arab lawmaker's decision to join hundreds of activists on a
pro-Palestinian flotilla has elevated her from relative political obscurity,
transforming her into the poster child for the ...
DEBT
POISED TO OVERTAKE GDP Key
Indicators of a New Depression Neeraj
Chaudhary | Great Depression
II developing into something far more devastating than its predecessor You’re Being Decieved Infowars.com | We’re heading over an economic cliff and there’s
nothing the government can or will do about it except lie. The
Folly of Blindly Trusting the Government
‘What Does China Want?’
They want to speak to Rosanne Rosanna Danna, of course! ‘Asian markets tumble
on fears over Hungary’ …Riiiiight! Hungary’s the thing! … Rosanne Rosanna
Danna, formerly of SNL fame wanted in Asia to chime in with what her mama
always used to say, ‘ It’s always something ‘ . Of course, it matters little to
the frauds on wall street what the something is said to be since the reality is
… ‘This is a global depression. This is a
secular bear market in a global depression. This was a manipulated bull (s***)
cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as
has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street
frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street
churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes.’ ( It should be noted, and there have
been a multitude of other instances, that I’m getting substantial ‘attacks’
vis-ŕ-vis my internet connection which has slowed dramatically these posts. I
don’t think the interference is either accidental nor just coincidental but
consistent with corrupt defacto bankrupt america’s critics of which I am one
and not alone in that regard – slowing, militating against the devastating
truth about america.) Europe
is Heading for a Depression Despite a nearly-$1 trillion rescue operation,
financial conditions in the eurozone continue to deteriorate. All the gauges of
market stress are edging upwards and credit default swaps (CDS) spreads have
widened to levels not seen since the weekend of the emergency euro-summit. Key
Indicators of a New Depression With the mainstream media focusing on the
country’s leveling unemployment rate, improving retail sales, and nascent
housing recovery, one might think that the US government has successfully
navigated the economy through recession and growth has returned. Get Ready for a Double Dip … but many warning flags point towards significant deterioration
in the U.S. and global economy going forward and so I think that by the end of
the year or early 2011, we could very well be facing a new leg down in the
world’s economic situation … [I’d say too optimistic since, to reiterate: This is a global depression. This is a secular bear
market in a global depression. This was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a
secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes.]
The End of Buy and Hold ... And Hope Brian Rezny (I was going to insert his charts in
this synopsis but there are just too many good ones and they are a must see so
go to his article, not just because I agree with much of what he says though
he’s light on that ‘depression thing’ and overly optimistic as such, but
because he is smart – You may click here for
archived version) ‘… Buy and hold investing is a popular strategy, and the
thinking is straightforward: in the long run, the market will offer returns, in
spite of short-term volatility. In theory, this is a sensible idea.
Unfortunately, this approach does not work in today’s market. Why not? Of
course, the market is down for this month. But that’s not the reason this is
not a buy and hold environment. It’s not just about the recent correction, or
the end of a market rally. The current trend fits into a much bigger picture…
and it’s a picture of a long-term bear market. Secular markets are long-term
trends, typically lasting about 18 years. Secular bull markets generally see
stocks return at least 20% for the duration, while secular bear markets see
stocks decline at least 20%. And these secular trends are interspersed with
shorter, cyclical bull and bear markets. From 1982-2000 we experienced a
secular bull market: in that period, stocks offered a return if you bought and
held for the duration … (chart) … But since then? We have been in what I call a
secular bear market. As you can see below, an investor who bought into an index
that tracks the S&P 500 as this trend began in 2000, has experienced a
negative return. And based on the typical length of a secular bear, we could
have several more years to go in this trend … (chart) And it’s not just over
the last 30 years that this cycle has occurred. We can look back over the last
century and see a continuum of secular markets, with bear trends starting in
1901, 1929, 1966, and 2000…’
Oct
31, 2009 ... or surplus, as a percentage of GDP ... USD in Millions. Robert
D. Arnott ... GSEs, the total public debt is now at 141% of GDP.
... www.researchaffiliates.com Nov 23,
2008 ... But state and local debt as a share of GDP has
quadrupled since 1945, ... as a percentage of the overall economy,
recently exceeding the GDP for the first time ever. ... Rob Arnott
is chairman of Research Affiliates ...
Robert Arnott ‘… the
latest 12 months saw our public debt and unfunded obligations grow by 18% of
GDP! No wonder the debt seems to have grown crushingly large. It’s noteworthy
that, if a company computes its debt by ignoring off-balance-sheet and unfunded
obligations, the management team wins an allexpense- paid extended holiday at
Club Fed. Enron, anyone? But, if you write the laws, you can allow yourself
these games. In emerging markets debt investments, managers are wary of
sovereign credits when their deficits approach 5% of GDP. Yet here we are,
after measuring on a more economically accurate level, running at twice this
worrisome warning level… for over 25 years. The Debt If we borrow more than we
earn for such an extended period of time, the debt picture won’t be pretty.
It’s not. At 60% of GDP, the United States ranks about 25th in the world for
indebtedness.1 But that’s not the whole story. To get the complete picture, we
need to factor in state and local debt and GSEs. Note that most other (particularly
developing) countries don’t have layers of autonomous public entities of this
sort. Adding federal, state, local, and GSEs, the total public debt is now at
141% of GDP. That puts the United States in some elite company— only Japan,
Lebanon, and Zimbabwe are higher. Add in household debt (highest in the world
at 99% of GDP) and corporate debt (highest in the world at 317% of GDP, not
even counting off-balancesheet swaps and derivatives), and our total debt is
557% of GDP. Less than three years ago, our total indebtedness crossed 500% of
GDP for the first time. As Figure 2 shows, apart from the shadow banking system
we are most assuredly not deleveraging. Direct debt is rising, not falling. Add
in the unfunded portion of entitlement programs and we’re at 840% of GDP.
Yikes. No wonder the debt burden feels so crushing. What can’t happen, won’t
happen. If we can’t afford our direct debt, we surely can’t afford our unfunded
obligations. The stroke of a pen can take these programs to “means testing.” If
retirees cannot enjoy Social Security or Medicare reimbursal until their
savings are drained, the unfunded obligations disappear. This still leaving us
true, direct debt of 5˝ times our income. It is a daunting figure. How many
people do you know that have owed five times their annual income and suffered
no adverse consequences? …
Summer
Streets Of Rage Predicted For Europe & U.S. Top historians, social and financial analysts, along with police
bodies are all predicting that Europe and America are set to experience a
summer of rage, with scenes mirroring the chaos we have seen unfold in Greece
in reaction to draconian austerity measures now being imposed by governments in
the west Deflationary
Depression and Purging To Come What
now that stimulus packages are ending, money set to plunge, market control by
insiders has to end, Fed doesnt need a monopoly, bond sales down, still high
expectations for gold. Strategic
Defaults: Is It Morally Right To Decide To Simply Stop Paying Your Mortgage? In 2010, record numbers of Americans are
defaulting on their mortgages. For most of them, it is because they simply
cannot afford the mortgage payments any longer.
european central banks intervened to shore up
the ever more worthless euro, buying into that fraudulent wall street b*** s***
story that that ‘s a good thing, rallying stocks off their lows. It is amazing
how dumb europe has become so quickly. An exception is what I believe was Germany’s
steps against derivatives, which market according to a derivatives trader on
the radio this day is a $40 trillion market (missed his name). To reiterate as
applicable to yet another fraudulent scheme previously stated, said market is
paper on paper moving around and generating commissions at lightning
computerized speed but adding no real value in real economic terms; again, the
analogy of termites eating away at the (nation’s) foundation is apposite. As
such, that money has to come from some real place and hence, the ever more
frequent and larger crashes we are seeing. Don’t forget that the worthless
paper from previous such fraudulent schemes now marked to anything is still out
there in a magnitude some have placed in the hundreds of trillions.
The
Worst Money Supply Plunge Since The Depression Means A Double Dip Is Now A
‘Virtual Certainty’ The stock of
U.S. money as measured by ‘M3′ money supply fell to $13.9 trillion from
$14.2 trillion during the three months ending in April. [ This is still an extraordinarily high level but … I don’t
buy it. I believe the printing presses have been working overtime to pump out
ever more worthless fiat currency and with the many trillions of worthless
fraudulent paper still out there and marked to anything. I further believe the
same is being surreptitiously used to supplant the fraudulent paper, the consequences
of which will be devastating, of course, as is invariably so in depressions in
any event. This scenario would also mean huge fraud accomplis. ] Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level The bankster operative who helped destroy
Glass-Steagall is back. Larry Summers, Obama’s top economic adviser, has told
Congress to “grit its teeth” and approve a fresh fiscal boost of $200 billion
to keep growth on track, reports the Daily Telegraph. Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level Kurt Nimmo | The Federal Reserve
stopped publishing M3 figures back in 2006.
The frauds on wall street et als should be
criminally prosecuted, jailed, and disgorgement imposed. If that were so, they
wouldn’t be worrying about who wins / loses since those who fraudulently play,
invariably would (and should) pay. If
they’re not prosecuted, everyone loses.
POST MORTEM AND REVIEW Ricky:
A post mortem is in order. The elements of this
worldwide con game are remarkably simple, not complex at all. Apparently you
only need a few things to make a mockery of the entire global economic system,
and big banks garnered these few important things through “regulatory capture”:
1) Unregulated, unenforced rules (particularly for
derivatives)
2) license to “mark to model” (assign your own values to your assets)
3) ability to peg present value to irrational expected future returns (based on
unlimited, exponential growth)
4) infinite leverage (no effective requirements for reserve capital in
unregulated “shadow” markets)
5) massive size, so that the bank is "too big to fail"
6) non-transparency and non-accountability.
SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY!
DON’T BE A LUNE, SELL IN JUNE!
THE
FORECASTS:
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012
Russell Napier is the author of the book
“Anatomy of the Bear”, a professor at the Edinburgh Business School and a
consultant to CLSA Ltd. which is one of the top research houses in Asia.
Napier’s research indicates (and I paraphrase) that: The S&P 500 will
Decline to 400 by 2014 (the Dow 30 to 3800)
The S&P 500 will then undergo a major crash that will see U.S. equity
prices bottom at almost 50% below current levels (i.e. to 400 or less; the Dow
30 to 3800 or less) sometime around 2014 as Tobin’s “q” drops to 0.3 signaling
the end of the bear market, as it has done at the end of the four largest U.S.
market declines in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982.
U.S. Treasury Sales Collapse Leading to End of U.S. Dollar as Reserve Currency
Robert R.
Prechter Jr. is
author of a number of newsletters and books including “Elliott Wave Principle”
(1978) in which he predicted the super bull market of the 1980s; “At the Crest
of the Tidal Wave – A Forecast of the Great Bear Market” (1995) in which he
predicted a slow motion economic earthquake, brought about by a great asset
mania, that would register 11 on the financial Richter scale causing a collapse
of historic proportions; and “Conquer the Crash: You can Survive and Prosper in
a Deflationary Depression” (2002) in which he described the economic cataclysm
that we are just beginning to experience and advised how to position one’s self
financially during that period of time.
Depression is Imminent
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to
below 777 which was the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and
quite likely drop below 400 at one or more times during the bear market.
According
to the Debt Clock:
•
Total national debt: $13 trillion
• Debt per citizen: $42,026
• Debt per taxpayer: $117,982
• Total interest due: $1.9 trillion
• Interest per citizen: $2,211
Click here to see the Debt
Clock, which is updated every second.
•
Total personal debt: $16.5 trillion
• Total mortgage debt: $14.1 trillion
• Total consumer debt: $2.45 trillion
• Personal debt per citizen: $53,483
• Debt held by foreign countries: $4.07
trillion
http://www.usdebtclock.org
Get Real Time U.S. Debt Data
The
israeli Spin-Machine in Overdrive: dershowitz to the Rescue? Armed Israeli commandos, the elite of the
elites, rappelled to the deck of a Turkish ship carrying humanitarian relief
supplies to the 1.5 million prisoners in the Gaza concentration camp.
The yardarm is the
remedy Dozens of our friends and comrades, of wonderful compassionate
activists are dead and wounded in the pirate attack in the high seas on
humanitarian aid boats. This is a dreadful crime that will forever be
remembered and should be punished. The Israeli pirates attacked the
humanitarian aid Freedom Flotilla in the international waters over 150 km out
of their territorial waters. The boats carried no arms; the participants
strictly adhered to Ghandian mode by asking the Greek and Cyprus authorities to
search the boats to avoid later claims that they were armed.
A
Plague Upon The World: The USA is a “Failed State” Dr. Paul Craig Roberts | The American people are lost in la-la land. They have no idea that
their civil liberties have been forfeited.
US
citizen killed on flotilla reportedly shot four times in head Raw Story | A
forensic report said Furkan Dogan was shot at close range, with four bullets in
his head and one in his chest, according to the Anatolian news agency. The
explanation foisted off on the americans by war criminal israelis is probably
something on the order of ‘they just wanted to make sure they missed him’. Roberts:
‘AIPAC purchases US elections’ Russia Today | Paul Craig Roberts says that there will be nothing
that is going to be done by the United States to change the relationship with
Israel.
‘US
funding terrorist group against Iran’ Press TV | A member of a terrorist organization
operating in Iran says that a US State department radio station originally put
him in touch with the group.
Paul
Craig Roberts: Government Abandoned Vietnam POWs Kurt Nimmo | John McCain worked overtime to
make sure Vietnam POWs never came home. I think the even bigger story vis-ŕ-vis
mccain is: http://www.albertpeia.com/heroenot.htm ‘Did you know that that so-called
"american heroe" john mccain was referred to by his fellow pows in
Vietnam as something akin to the "songbird" inasmuch as he was
constantly "singing" to his Viet-Cong captors to curry favor and
better treatment? This has been documented with authority by Colonel David
Hackworth. The same violates military code/protocol (other soldiers have been
court-martialed for far less)
click Here, Here. [ http://www.albertpeia.com/hackworth.htm
] But, you see, this covered up
scenario, compromizing the false facade of far less than a heroe, is exactly
what a criminal (lie of a) nation as america loves and encourages (get
everyone's hands dirty so no-one dares to rectify same, ie., bush, sr.,
clinton, bush, jr.). That is, "toe the (corrupt, propagandized)
line", become a criminal, or be exposed, prosecuted, and/or ruined; and,
hasn't anyone asked how "wall street" has been "spared the
spotlight" (and even was accorded protective legislation from their
criminal culpability) and focus of inquiry, attention, and prosecution despite
being the primary beneficiaries financial and otherwise of these scams (you
know the wall street motto, "churn and earn"; huge conflicts of
interest if not outright fraud)…’
Coalition wants UK space lift-off [ Don’t make me laugh! ]
Israel’s
Nukes Out of the Shadows Israel
faces unprecedented pressure to abandon its official policy of “ambiguity” on
its possession of nuclear weapons as the international community meets at the
United Nations in New York this week to consider banning such arsenals from the
Middle East.
NASA wants mission to bring Martian rocks to Earth (AP) Why?
They already have that and more:
Launch
of secret US space ship masks even more secret launch of new weapon
http://www.albertpeia.com/UFOetryWeNeverWentToTheMoonPNTV.wmv
[To the Professor at the beginning of the course]
10-5-09
Postscript: Professor *****,
I felt compelled to thank you again for the add; not to curry your favor but
indeed to express profound thanks inasmuch as this is probably the last formal
course at a formal educational institution I'll ever take; and among the most
important. While I had bought at discount a library-discarded 1993 Anthropology
by Embers text, though meaning to read same never quite got to it. I am
astounded by the substantial amount of time involved in the evolutionary
process, not that I ever stopped to think about it, and one must come away with
the sense of 'and all that...for this?'. This course should be required
curriculum along with psychology, sociology, etc., but probably won't be owing
to what is, as it should be, a very humbling educational experience for any
member of the human race.
Regards,
Al Peia
Drudgereport: DEBT RISE TO
$19,600,000,000,000.00 BY 2015
NY MAY SHUT NEXT WEEK: Paterson Warns Chaos,
Anarchy...
GALLUP: NEW LOW FOR O, SLIPS TO
44%...
RASMUSSEN
POLL...
Obama Approval Falls to
New Low: 42%
Obama Approval Index:
-20
Strongly Approve 24%
Strongly Disapprove 44%
Total Approval 42%
SPAIN:
THE NEW CRISIS IN EUROLAND...
BP
chairman says company cares about the 'small people'..
The
'small people' aren't big fans of comment...
32
million watch Obama speech, down 21% from last address...
LOBOTOMY JOE BIDEN: 'I'M A
POLITICAN, AND AM PROUD OF IT!' … riiiiight joe, anything you say ...
DICK
MORRIS: Obama vs. press freedom...
POLL: Voter support for
Congress at all-time low...
GALLUP:
Obama's Weekly Job Approval Rating Skid...
House
Speaker Paying $18K a Month for New Office...
GERMAN
GOVT CLOSE TO COLLAPSE...
Spain
sees credit squeeze, denies EU rescue bid...
Retail
sales unexpectedly fall in May...
...plunge
by largest amount in 8 months
BP eyes showdown with US govt on
liability...
Ahmadinejad:
Israel 'doomed'...
UN hits Iran with new sanctions over nuclear
program...
TURKEY, BRAZIL VOTE AGAINST...
Ahmadinejad: Resolution 'like a used
handkerchief'...
Copter shot down in Afghanistan; 4 Americans
dead...
Gates predicts tough summer, confident of
gains…Oooooh! Sounds like a plam!...
Shares Plunge 16% as Pressures Mount...
'Month before they declare Chapter 11'...
PAPER: Obama's attacks on BP hurting British
pensioners...
Windows shot out at BP gas station...
POLL:
74% Oppose Tax On DRUDGE, Web Sites To Help Newspapers...
Ahmadinejad
Stresses Need for 'New World Order'...
Russia,
Iran in joint venture for nuclear plant...
Two
more Palestinians killed by Israel wash ashore...
UN rebukes of Israel
permitted in US policy shift...
DEBT
POISED TO OVERTAKE GDP
POLL:
BP Oil Spill Response Rated Worse than Katrina...
'Three
Cheers for Helen Thomas'...
Fleisher:
Ethnic Cleansing by israel … Wouldn’t
abrogation of flawed / failed
balfour and sending jews home to europe be the wisest and most peace generating
course ...
UPDATE:
Crude gushes from cap; only a fraction captured...
Census
Worker Claims Job Numbers Being Inflated...
Bilderberg
2010: Between the sword and the wall...
Protesters
'being detained, searched, questioned'...
Final
List of Participants...
Stephen
Hawking: Aliens exist but don't talk to them -- it's too dangerous … might not
like us… Oh pshaw! … Human nature, man’s inhumanity to man? … Such humble
beginnings and evolutionary history … What’s not to like? … Besides, not
to worry. With their advanced technologies that defy human understanding,
the aliens already know you’re here … to stay. So, not to worry. After all, as
we know from that documentary of that same name, ‘Earth Girls Are Easy’ … and
then there’s photosynthesis on earth in a very big way also going for it! ...
Seeing
Aliens Will Likely Take Centuries. Centuries? Not goin’ to happen; at best,
decades.
Federal
Reserve Very Concerned About Double Dip Recession Economic Policy Journal | The Federal Reserve appears to have serious
concerns that the economy is heading into a double dip recession. Food
prices to rise by up to 40% over next decade, UN report warns The Guardian | The forecasts are for wheat and coarse grain
prices over the next 10 years to be between 15% and 40% higher in real
terms. The Next Housing Crisis Mike Whitney | More than 7 million homeowners have already
stopped paying their mortgages which means that the inventory-pipeline will be
bulging for years to come.
LOBOTOMY JOE BIDEN: 'I'M A POLITICAN, AND AM PROUD
OF IT!' … riiiiight joe, anything you say ...
Iowa Republican: Obama favors blacks over whites (AP) - AP - Democrats on Tuesday denounced an Iowa
Republican congressman who says President Barack Obama favors blacks over
whites, and a GOP candidate from Colorado canceled a fundraiser the Iowan was
to k... Federal
Judge Cites Voting Rights Act to Rig Election in New York State Kurt Nimmo | In Port Chester, New York, some people are more
equal than others depending on their ethnic and racial status.
$34
Billion Asset Manager Says Market Prices Are Manipulated, Accuses NYSE Of
Intellectual Property Theft, Debunks HFT “Liquidity Provider” Lies As part of the SEC’s process to fix the
broken market, it is currently soliciting public feedback on a variety of
issues. Why it is doing so, we don’t know – after all anything that does not
conform to the SEC’s preconception of what the most lucrative market to the
SEC’s recent batch of clients (see earlier news about an SEC director going to
HFT specialist Getco) is, just ends up in the shredder anyway
Soros
Says ‘We Have Just Entered Act II’ of Crisis Bloomberg | Soros said the current situation in the world economy is
“eerily” reminiscent of the 1930s. Gerald
Celente: U.S. Financial Markets to Collapse by End of 2010 Infowars.com | Gerald Celente is a renowned
trend forecaster, publisher of the Trends Journal, business consultant and
author who makes predictions about the global financial markets and other
events of historical importance. Jobless
Claims in U.S. Decreased Last Week to 456,000 Bloomberg | More Americans than anticipated
filed applications for unemployment benefits last week.
Market Outlook: Bearish Background to Bullish Storyline Sean Hannon: ‘The last two weekly market
commentaries have discussed how the underlying trend of the market is now
bearish and all rallies should be used to sell stocks and reduce risks. With
nearly every news outlet spouting the bullish storyline, these articles served
as an outline of a disciplined investment strategy. Those who followed the
outline have done well as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow), S&P 500,
and NASDAQ each declined over 5% since my initial warning. With the Dow still
stuck below the psychologically important 10,000 level and all three major U.S.
markets trading beneath their 200-day moving averages (MA), the bearish backdrop
is clear. Even if many are still looking for a rally, we should understand that
the primary trend is lower. Instead of focusing on how high prices will rally,
we should instead consider how much further prices can fall …’
Bearish Sentiment Rises to Eleven Month High – Bespoke Investment Group: ‘This
week's sentiment survey from Investors Intelligence showed that
bearish sentiment among newsletter writers is now up to 31.9% which is an
eleven month high. Although the levels of bearish sentiment are still nowhere
near the extreme highs we saw during the last bear market, the inability of
stocks to 'snap back' from the recent declines certainly has advisors on edge …’
US Media Terrified Of
Mentioning USS Liberty Do
you know that an american naval vessel was attacked by israel in international
waters, 43 years ago today, resulting in the deaths of dozens of american
sailors Arab
lawmaker on flotilla sparks outrage in israel (AP) - An
Israeli-Arab lawmaker's decision to join hundreds of activists on a
pro-Palestinian flotilla has elevated her from relative political obscurity,
transforming her into the poster child for the ...
DEBT
POISED TO OVERTAKE GDP Key
Indicators of a New Depression Neeraj
Chaudhary | Great Depression
II developing into something far more devastating than its predecessor You’re Being Decieved Infowars.com | We’re heading over an economic cliff and there’s
nothing the government can or will do about it except lie. The
Folly of Blindly Trusting the Government
‘What Does China Want?’
They want to speak to Rosanne Rosanna Danna, of course! ‘Asian markets tumble
on fears over Hungary’ …Riiiiight! Hungary’s the thing! … Rosanne Rosanna
Danna, formerly of SNL fame wanted in Asia to chime in with what her mama
always used to say, ‘ It’s always something ‘ . Of course, it matters little to
the frauds on wall street what the something is said to be since the reality is
… ‘This is a global depression. This is a
secular bear market in a global depression. This was a manipulated bull (s***)
cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as
has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street
frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street
churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes.’ ( It should be noted, and there have
been a multitude of other instances, that I’m getting substantial ‘attacks’
vis-ŕ-vis my internet connection which has slowed dramatically these posts. I
don’t think the interference is either accidental nor just coincidental but
consistent with corrupt defacto bankrupt america’s critics of which I am one
and not alone in that regard – slowing, militating against the devastating
truth about america.) Europe
is Heading for a Depression Despite a nearly-$1 trillion rescue operation,
financial conditions in the eurozone continue to deteriorate. All the gauges of
market stress are edging upwards and credit default swaps (CDS) spreads have
widened to levels not seen since the weekend of the emergency euro-summit. Key
Indicators of a New Depression With the mainstream media focusing on the
country’s leveling unemployment rate, improving retail sales, and nascent
housing recovery, one might think that the US government has successfully
navigated the economy through recession and growth has returned. Get Ready for a Double Dip … but many warning flags point towards significant deterioration
in the U.S. and global economy going forward and so I think that by the end of
the year or early 2011, we could very well be facing a new leg down in the
world’s economic situation … [I’d say too optimistic since, to reiterate: This is a global depression. This is a secular bear
market in a global depression. This was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a
secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes.]
The End of Buy and Hold ... And Hope Brian Rezny (I was going to insert his charts in
this synopsis but there are just too many good ones and they are a must see so
go to his article, not just because I agree with much of what he says though
he’s light on that ‘depression thing’ and overly optimistic as such, but
because he is smart – You may click here for
archived version) ‘… Buy and hold investing is a popular strategy, and the
thinking is straightforward: in the long run, the market will offer returns, in
spite of short-term volatility. In theory, this is a sensible idea.
Unfortunately, this approach does not work in today’s market. Why not? Of
course, the market is down for this month. But that’s not the reason this is
not a buy and hold environment. It’s not just about the recent correction, or
the end of a market rally. The current trend fits into a much bigger picture…
and it’s a picture of a long-term bear market. Secular markets are long-term
trends, typically lasting about 18 years. Secular bull markets generally see
stocks return at least 20% for the duration, while secular bear markets see
stocks decline at least 20%. And these secular trends are interspersed with
shorter, cyclical bull and bear markets. From 1982-2000 we experienced a
secular bull market: in that period, stocks offered a return if you bought and
held for the duration … (chart) … But since then? We have been in what I call a
secular bear market. As you can see below, an investor who bought into an index
that tracks the S&P 500 as this trend began in 2000, has experienced a
negative return. And based on the typical length of a secular bear, we could
have several more years to go in this trend … (chart) And it’s not just over
the last 30 years that this cycle has occurred. We can look back over the last
century and see a continuum of secular markets, with bear trends starting in
1901, 1929, 1966, and 2000…’
Oct
31, 2009 ... or surplus, as a percentage of GDP ... USD in Millions. Robert
D. Arnott ... GSEs, the total public debt is now at 141% of GDP.
... www.researchaffiliates.com Nov 23,
2008 ... But state and local debt as a share of GDP has
quadrupled since 1945, ... as a percentage of the overall economy,
recently exceeding the GDP for the first time ever. ... Rob Arnott
is chairman of Research Affiliates ...
Robert Arnott ‘… the
latest 12 months saw our public debt and unfunded obligations grow by 18% of
GDP! No wonder the debt seems to have grown crushingly large. It’s noteworthy
that, if a company computes its debt by ignoring off-balance-sheet and unfunded
obligations, the management team wins an allexpense- paid extended holiday at
Club Fed. Enron, anyone? But, if you write the laws, you can allow yourself
these games. In emerging markets debt investments, managers are wary of
sovereign credits when their deficits approach 5% of GDP. Yet here we are,
after measuring on a more economically accurate level, running at twice this
worrisome warning level… for over 25 years. The Debt If we borrow more than we
earn for such an extended period of time, the debt picture won’t be pretty.
It’s not. At 60% of GDP, the United States ranks about 25th in the world for
indebtedness.1 But that’s not the whole story. To get the complete picture, we
need to factor in state and local debt and GSEs. Note that most other (particularly
developing) countries don’t have layers of autonomous public entities of this
sort. Adding federal, state, local, and GSEs, the total public debt is now at
141% of GDP. That puts the United States in some elite company— only Japan,
Lebanon, and Zimbabwe are higher. Add in household debt (highest in the world
at 99% of GDP) and corporate debt (highest in the world at 317% of GDP, not
even counting off-balancesheet swaps and derivatives), and our total debt is
557% of GDP. Less than three years ago, our total indebtedness crossed 500% of
GDP for the first time. As Figure 2 shows, apart from the shadow banking system
we are most assuredly not deleveraging. Direct debt is rising, not falling. Add
in the unfunded portion of entitlement programs and we’re at 840% of GDP.
Yikes. No wonder the debt burden feels so crushing. What can’t happen, won’t
happen. If we can’t afford our direct debt, we surely can’t afford our unfunded
obligations. The stroke of a pen can take these programs to “means testing.” If
retirees cannot enjoy Social Security or Medicare reimbursal until their
savings are drained, the unfunded obligations disappear. This still leaving us
true, direct debt of 5˝ times our income. It is a daunting figure. How many
people do you know that have owed five times their annual income and suffered
no adverse consequences? …
Summer
Streets Of Rage Predicted For Europe & U.S. Top historians, social and financial analysts, along with police
bodies are all predicting that Europe and America are set to experience a
summer of rage, with scenes mirroring the chaos we have seen unfold in Greece
in reaction to draconian austerity measures now being imposed by governments in
the west Deflationary
Depression and Purging To Come What
now that stimulus packages are ending, money set to plunge, market control by
insiders has to end, Fed doesnt need a monopoly, bond sales down, still high
expectations for gold. Strategic
Defaults: Is It Morally Right To Decide To Simply Stop Paying Your Mortgage? In 2010, record numbers of Americans are
defaulting on their mortgages. For most of them, it is because they simply
cannot afford the mortgage payments any longer.
european central banks intervened to shore up
the ever more worthless euro, buying into that fraudulent wall street b*** s***
story that that ‘s a good thing, rallying stocks off their lows. It is amazing
how dumb europe has become so quickly. An exception is what I believe was Germany’s
steps against derivatives, which market according to a derivatives trader on
the radio this day is a $40 trillion market (missed his name). To reiterate as
applicable to yet another fraudulent scheme previously stated, said market is
paper on paper moving around and generating commissions at lightning
computerized speed but adding no real value in real economic terms; again, the
analogy of termites eating away at the (nation’s) foundation is apposite. As
such, that money has to come from some real place and hence, the ever more
frequent and larger crashes we are seeing. Don’t forget that the worthless
paper from previous such fraudulent schemes now marked to anything is still out
there in a magnitude some have placed in the hundreds of trillions.
The
Worst Money Supply Plunge Since The Depression Means A Double Dip Is Now A
‘Virtual Certainty’ The stock of
U.S. money as measured by ‘M3′ money supply fell to $13.9 trillion from
$14.2 trillion during the three months ending in April. [ This is still an extraordinarily high level but … I don’t
buy it. I believe the printing presses have been working overtime to pump out
ever more worthless fiat currency and with the many trillions of worthless
fraudulent paper still out there and marked to anything. I further believe the
same is being surreptitiously used to supplant the fraudulent paper, the consequences
of which will be devastating, of course, as is invariably so in depressions in
any event. This scenario would also mean huge fraud accomplis. ] Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level The bankster operative who helped destroy
Glass-Steagall is back. Larry Summers, Obama’s top economic adviser, has told
Congress to “grit its teeth” and approve a fresh fiscal boost of $200 billion
to keep growth on track, reports the Daily Telegraph. Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level Kurt Nimmo | The Federal Reserve
stopped publishing M3 figures back in 2006.
The frauds on wall street et als should be
criminally prosecuted, jailed, and disgorgement imposed. If that were so, they
wouldn’t be worrying about who wins / loses since those who fraudulently play,
invariably would (and should) pay. If
they’re not prosecuted, everyone loses.
POST MORTEM AND REVIEW Ricky:
A post mortem is in order. The elements of this
worldwide con game are remarkably simple, not complex at all. Apparently you
only need a few things to make a mockery of the entire global economic system,
and big banks garnered these few important things through “regulatory capture”:
1) Unregulated, unenforced rules (particularly for
derivatives)
2) license to “mark to model” (assign your own values to your assets)
3) ability to peg present value to irrational expected future returns (based on
unlimited, exponential growth)
4) infinite leverage (no effective requirements for reserve capital in
unregulated “shadow” markets)
5) massive size, so that the bank is "too big to fail"
6) non-transparency and non-accountability.
SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY!
DON’T BE A LUNE, SELL IN JUNE!
THE
FORECASTS:
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012
Russell Napier is the author of the book
“Anatomy of the Bear”, a professor at the Edinburgh Business School and a
consultant to CLSA Ltd. which is one of the top research houses in Asia.
Napier’s research indicates (and I paraphrase) that: The S&P 500 will
Decline to 400 by 2014 (the Dow 30 to 3800)
The S&P 500 will then undergo a major crash that will see U.S. equity
prices bottom at almost 50% below current levels (i.e. to 400 or less; the Dow
30 to 3800 or less) sometime around 2014 as Tobin’s “q” drops to 0.3 signaling
the end of the bear market, as it has done at the end of the four largest U.S.
market declines in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982.
U.S. Treasury Sales Collapse Leading to End of U.S. Dollar as Reserve Currency
Robert R.
Prechter Jr. is
author of a number of newsletters and books including “Elliott Wave Principle”
(1978) in which he predicted the super bull market of the 1980s; “At the Crest
of the Tidal Wave – A Forecast of the Great Bear Market” (1995) in which he
predicted a slow motion economic earthquake, brought about by a great asset
mania, that would register 11 on the financial Richter scale causing a collapse
of historic proportions; and “Conquer the Crash: You can Survive and Prosper in
a Deflationary Depression” (2002) in which he described the economic cataclysm
that we are just beginning to experience and advised how to position one’s self
financially during that period of time.
Depression is Imminent
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to
below 777 which was the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and
quite likely drop below 400 at one or more times during the bear market.
According
to the Debt Clock:
•
Total national debt: $13 trillion
• Debt per citizen: $42,026
• Debt per taxpayer: $117,982
• Total interest due: $1.9 trillion
• Interest per citizen: $2,211
Click here to see the Debt
Clock, which is updated every second.
•
Total personal debt: $16.5 trillion
• Total mortgage debt: $14.1 trillion
• Total consumer debt: $2.45 trillion
• Personal debt per citizen: $53,483
• Debt held by foreign countries: $4.07
trillion
http://www.usdebtclock.org
Get Real Time U.S. Debt Data
The
israeli Spin-Machine in Overdrive: dershowitz to the Rescue? Armed Israeli commandos, the elite of the
elites, rappelled to the deck of a Turkish ship carrying humanitarian relief
supplies to the 1.5 million prisoners in the Gaza concentration camp.
The yardarm is the
remedy Dozens of our friends and comrades, of wonderful compassionate
activists are dead and wounded in the pirate attack in the high seas on
humanitarian aid boats. This is a dreadful crime that will forever be
remembered and should be punished. The Israeli pirates attacked the
humanitarian aid Freedom Flotilla in the international waters over 150 km out
of their territorial waters. The boats carried no arms; the participants
strictly adhered to Ghandian mode by asking the Greek and Cyprus authorities to
search the boats to avoid later claims that they were armed.
A
Plague Upon The World: The USA is a “Failed State” Dr. Paul Craig Roberts | The American people are lost in la-la land. They have no idea that
their civil liberties have been forfeited.
US
citizen killed on flotilla reportedly shot four times in head Raw Story | A
forensic report said Furkan Dogan was shot at close range, with four bullets in
his head and one in his chest, according to the Anatolian news agency. The
explanation foisted off on the americans by war criminal israelis is probably
something on the order of ‘they just wanted to make sure they missed him’. Roberts:
‘AIPAC purchases US elections’ Russia Today | Paul Craig Roberts says that there will be nothing
that is going to be done by the United States to change the relationship with
Israel.
‘US
funding terrorist group against Iran’ Press TV | A member of a terrorist organization
operating in Iran says that a US State department radio station originally put
him in touch with the group.
Paul
Craig Roberts: Government Abandoned Vietnam POWs Kurt Nimmo | John McCain worked overtime to
make sure Vietnam POWs never came home. I think the even bigger story vis-ŕ-vis
mccain is: http://www.albertpeia.com/heroenot.htm ‘Did you know that that so-called
"american heroe" john mccain was referred to by his fellow pows in
Vietnam as something akin to the "songbird" inasmuch as he was
constantly "singing" to his Viet-Cong captors to curry favor and
better treatment? This has been documented with authority by Colonel David
Hackworth. The same violates military code/protocol (other soldiers have been
court-martialed for far less)
click Here, Here. [ http://www.albertpeia.com/hackworth.htm
] But, you see, this covered up
scenario, compromizing the false facade of far less than a heroe, is exactly
what a criminal (lie of a) nation as america loves and encourages (get
everyone's hands dirty so no-one dares to rectify same, ie., bush, sr.,
clinton, bush, jr.). That is, "toe the (corrupt, propagandized)
line", become a criminal, or be exposed, prosecuted, and/or ruined; and,
hasn't anyone asked how "wall street" has been "spared the
spotlight" (and even was accorded protective legislation from their
criminal culpability) and focus of inquiry, attention, and prosecution despite
being the primary beneficiaries financial and otherwise of these scams (you
know the wall street motto, "churn and earn"; huge conflicts of
interest if not outright fraud)…’
Coalition wants UK space lift-off [ Don’t make me laugh! ]
Israel’s
Nukes Out of the Shadows Israel
faces unprecedented pressure to abandon its official policy of “ambiguity” on
its possession of nuclear weapons as the international community meets at the
United Nations in New York this week to consider banning such arsenals from the
Middle East.
$34
Billion Asset Manager Says Market Prices Are Manipulated, Accuses NYSE Of
Intellectual Property Theft, Debunks HFT “Liquidity Provider” Lies As part of the SEC’s process to fix the broken
market, it is currently soliciting public feedback on a variety of issues. Why
it is doing so, we don’t know – after all anything that does not conform to the
SEC’s preconception of what the most lucrative market to the SEC’s recent batch
of clients (see earlier news about an SEC director going to HFT specialist
Getco) is, just ends up in the shredder anyway
Prof. Shiller tracks P/E ratios back to the 19th
century, smoothing out short-term ups and downs in profits by using a 10-year
earnings average. Even after the May declines, his P/E ratio still is almost
20, well above the historical average of about 16.
For the record, Shillers P/E ratio is still about 20
as of the first month of June. So at least on that basis, Shiller would argue
that stocks really aren’t cheap yet …
Gaza Aid Ship
Departs Iranian Port Kurt Nimmo | Iranian official in charge of aid to Gaza says
convoy participants may become martyrs.
Obama
Compares Gulf Oil Spill To 9/11 Tragedy Mark Matheny | Our
current Dictator in Chief and his cronies will certainly play the “crisis”
fiddle for all it’s worth. Central
Bank Hid Housing Market Crash Forecast Infowars.com |
Financial elite covered-up imminent global housing collapse year before it
happened. The
51st Police State: U.S. National Guard being used to ‘fight crime’ in Puerto
Rico Andrew Steele | Establishing the precedent of using the military
in police actions as Puerto Rico slowly transforms into a U.S. state will allow
the practice to carryover once the transition is completed. Not if Puerto Rico
is smart, in which case they will seek independence.
ECONOMIC
TRAIN REROUTED TO FLAT LINE author: Steven Hansen ‘When Fed
Chairman Bernanke this
week stated to Congress that the economy “appears to be on track to continue
to expand through this year and next”. I was wondering if Chairman Bernanke had
a different set of indicators he was reviewing ... The economic train seems to
have left the “moderate” expansion tracks. It was moderately expanding through
March. In April 2010, a noticeable change in consumer spending data began. For
me, it is telling that this indicator is dropping so dramatically so soon after
“recovery” from the Great Recession of 2007 ... This brings into question the
long term benefits of economic measures to stimulate the economy when no
simultaneous action is taken to remedy the underlying defects which triggered
the recession. What is a bigger concern is that stimulus tends to mask the
underlying currents so that we are surprised at the economic direction when the
stimulus expires. And economic cheerleading creates long term distrust if “v”
or moderate recoveries are not delivered. In the same address to Congress,
Chairman Bernanke warned that the the US budget must be brought under control.
You can thank Europe and Japan for making a bigger mess of their budgets or the
sucking sound you would be hearing would have been the dollar and the USA
economy crashing. There is no question the current economic path we are
traveling is creating unnecessary headwinds …
The
coincident indicators are starting to flat line.
The
biggest flat line of them all is the initial unemployment claims. The biggest
stimulus of all time combined with quantitative easing and ZIRP – and the
unsuccessful actions of all the Kings men is not stopping the unusually high
plateau of job losses. The 4 week moving average was up slightly for the week
ending June 5.
The graph below is the unaveraged initial claims … One of the more surprising
April 2010 data points was the slight contraction ($1 billion) of international
trade MoM. This came despite growth in outbound container counts which I use as
an advance proxy for international trade. Imports declined about the same as
exports. A flat line of imports and exports is not saying we have a moderate
recovery underway … there is a lot of evidence now building against a
'moderate' growth scenario …
Consumer
Credit Declines In April At a 4% Annual Rate
Growth of
consumer credit has been the driver for economic growth since the end of WWII.
The finance industry has continued to fine tune its methods so that it becomes
easier and easier to to buy what we want today whether we can afford it or not.
Consumer spending accounts for 2/3rds of the economy. We know the economy is
growing if consumer credit is growing as consumers are spending more money then
they earn.
For April 2010 the
Federal Reserve advised:
Consumer
credit increased at an annual rate of 1/2 percent in April 2010. Revolving
credit decreased at an annual rate of 12 percent, and nonrevolving credit
increased at an annual rate of 7 percent.
… This
month the Fed's statement is wrong…
March is the low month of the year while December is the high month.
This has been true since 2000. Using the average growth between March and April
since 2000, the April 2010 growth was short 0.36% MoM – or 4% if annualized.
Combine this with:
The major
reason for the credit contraction in April was a contraction of revolving
credit (credit cards – I assume this was caused mostly by bank write-offs).
Non-revolving credit (cars, mobile homes, etc) has remained in a tight range
since the 4Q2007, and did increase very slightly MoM.
Retail
Sales for May
The Census
believes retail sales were off 1.2% MoM in May 2010
according to their advanced adjusted data. The unadjusted data is telling a far
worse story. Even though the April retail data was weak, the USA was showing a
closing with the pre-recession levels. May data now shows a widening … retail
sales in March and April 2010 were closing almost to 1% of the pre-recession
monthly peaks. The May 2010 data shows retail sales over 6% less than the
pre-recession peak … initial May 2010
sales results from various retailers is telling the same story … it appears
sales are down MoM – and this is true. But the drop MoM is significantly better
than the historical MoM drop between March and April … Now, IF business sales
are stalling – we would begin to see an increase in inventories. And sure
enough the inventory to sales ratios have flat lined. There is a possibility
that we reached the optimum inventory levels, and it should be noted that
inventories ALWAYS increase between March and April.
The
Federal Reserve issued their June
2010 Beige Book – which is a summary of business activity surveys in all
twelve districts. Their summary:
Economic
activity continued to improve since the last report across all twelve Federal
Reserve Districts, although many Districts described the pace of growth as
“modest.” Consumer spending and tourism activity generally increased. Business
spending also rose, on net, with employment and capital spending edging up but
inventory investment slowing. By sector, nonfinancial services, manufacturing,
and transportation continued to gradually improve. Residential real estate
activity in many Districts was buoyed by the April deadline for the homebuyer
tax credit. Commercial real estate remained weak, although some Districts
reported an increase in leasing. Financial activity was little changed on
balance, although a few Districts noted a modest increase in lending. Spring
planting was generally ahead of the normal pace, while conditions in the
natural resource sectors varied across the Districts. Prices of final goods and
services were largely stable as higher input costs were not being passed along
to customers and wage pressures continued to be minimal.
The
University of Michigan consumer confidence for May 2010
increased slightly. The opinion which accompanied this survey stated:
The May
survey data indicate that consumers expect modest declines in the rate of
unemployment as well as small increases in inflation and interest rates during
the year ahead. Unfortunately, consumers also anticipate a slower pace of
recovery and that the gains in employment in the year ahead will be
distressingly small. Nonetheless, financial gains among upper income households
will continue to foster growth in overall consumer spending, although the pace
of spending growth will slow during the balance of the year and into the start
of 2011.’ Failed
Banks this Week:
Soros
Says ‘We Have Just Entered Act II’ of Crisis Bloomberg | Soros said the current situation in the world economy is
“eerily” reminiscent of the 1930s. Gerald
Celente: U.S. Financial Markets to Collapse by End of 2010 Infowars.com | Gerald Celente is a renowned
trend forecaster, publisher of the Trends Journal, business consultant and
author who makes predictions about the global financial markets and other
events of historical importance. Jobless
Claims in U.S. Decreased Last Week to 456,000 Bloomberg | More Americans than anticipated
filed applications for unemployment benefits last week.
Market Outlook: Bearish Background to Bullish Storyline Sean Hannon: ‘The last two weekly market
commentaries have discussed how the underlying trend of the market is now
bearish and all rallies should be used to sell stocks and reduce risks. With
nearly every news outlet spouting the bullish storyline, these articles served
as an outline of a disciplined investment strategy. Those who followed the
outline have done well as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow), S&P 500,
and NASDAQ each declined over 5% since my initial warning. With the Dow still
stuck below the psychologically important 10,000 level and all three major U.S.
markets trading beneath their 200-day moving averages (MA), the bearish
backdrop is clear. Even if many are still looking for a rally, we should
understand that the primary trend is lower. Instead of focusing on how high
prices will rally, we should instead consider how much further prices can fall
…’
Bearish Sentiment Rises to Eleven Month High – Bespoke Investment Group: ‘This
week's sentiment survey from Investors Intelligence showed that bearish
sentiment among newsletter writers is now up to 31.9% which is an eleven month
high. Although the levels of bearish sentiment are still nowhere near the
extreme highs we saw during the last bear market, the inability of stocks to
'snap back' from the recent declines certainly has advisors on edge …’
Greek
Default Seen by Almost 75% in Poll Doubtful About Trichet Global investors have little confidence in
Europe’s efforts to contain its debt crisis or in European Central Bank
President Jean-Claude Trichet, with 73 percent calling a default by Greece
likely. 12
Reasons Why The U.S. Housing Crash Is Far From Over Over the past several months, many in the
mainstream media have hailed the slight improvement in the U.S. real estate
market as a “housing recovery”. US
Needs Austerity Too: Hedge Fund Strategist The United States will have to adopt austerity measures similar to
the ones taken in Europe, because the problems faced are largely the same,
Timothy Scala, macro-strategist at Sophis Investments, told CNBC.com. Market
Analyst: ‘BP’s Not Going to Last as a Company More Than a Matter of Months’ We’ve heard politicians, even conservative
Republicans, suggest BP would be held completely responsible for the
devastation caused by the oil spill plaguing the Gulf of Mexico, even if it
means its very existence.
US Media Terrified Of
Mentioning USS Liberty Do
you know that an american naval vessel was attacked by israel in international
waters, 43 years ago today, resulting in the deaths of dozens of american
sailors Arab
lawmaker on flotilla sparks outrage in israel (AP) - An
Israeli-Arab lawmaker's decision to join hundreds of activists on a
pro-Palestinian flotilla has elevated her from relative political obscurity,
transforming her into the poster child for the ...
DEBT
POISED TO OVERTAKE GDP Key
Indicators of a New Depression Neeraj
Chaudhary | Great Depression
II developing into something far more devastating than its predecessor You’re Being Decieved Infowars.com | We’re heading over an economic cliff and there’s
nothing the government can or will do about it except lie. The
Folly of Blindly Trusting the Government
‘What Does China Want?’
They want to speak to Rosanne Rosanna Danna, of course! ‘Asian markets tumble
on fears over Hungary’ …Riiiiight! Hungary’s the thing! … Rosanne Rosanna
Danna, formerly of SNL fame wanted in Asia to chime in with what her mama
always used to say, ‘ It’s always something ‘ . Of course, it matters little to
the frauds on wall street what the something is said to be since the reality is
… ‘This is a global depression. This is a
secular bear market in a global depression. This was a manipulated bull (s***)
cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as
has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street
frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street
churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes.’ ( It should be noted, and there have
been a multitude of other instances, that I’m getting substantial ‘attacks’
vis-ŕ-vis my internet connection which has slowed dramatically these posts. I
don’t think the interference is either accidental nor just coincidental but
consistent with corrupt defacto bankrupt america’s critics of which I am one
and not alone in that regard – slowing, militating against the devastating
truth about america.) Europe
is Heading for a Depression Despite a nearly-$1 trillion rescue operation,
financial conditions in the eurozone continue to deteriorate. All the gauges of
market stress are edging upwards and credit default swaps (CDS) spreads have
widened to levels not seen since the weekend of the emergency euro-summit. Key
Indicators of a New Depression With the mainstream media focusing on the
country’s leveling unemployment rate, improving retail sales, and nascent
housing recovery, one might think that the US government has successfully
navigated the economy through recession and growth has returned. Get Ready for a Double Dip … but many warning flags point towards significant deterioration
in the U.S. and global economy going forward and so I think that by the end of
the year or early 2011, we could very well be facing a new leg down in the
world’s economic situation … [I’d say too optimistic since, to reiterate: This is a global depression. This is a secular bear
market in a global depression. This was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a
secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded
the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and
insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn
pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes.]
The End of Buy and Hold ... And Hope Brian Rezny (I was going to insert his charts in
this synopsis but there are just too many good ones and they are a must see so
go to his article, not just because I agree with much of what he says though
he’s light on that ‘depression thing’ and overly optimistic as such, but
because he is smart – You may click here for
archived version) ‘… Buy and hold investing is a popular strategy, and the
thinking is straightforward: in the long run, the market will offer returns, in
spite of short-term volatility. In theory, this is a sensible idea.
Unfortunately, this approach does not work in today’s market. Why not? Of
course, the market is down for this month. But that’s not the reason this is
not a buy and hold environment. It’s not just about the recent correction, or
the end of a market rally. The current trend fits into a much bigger picture…
and it’s a picture of a long-term bear market. Secular markets are long-term
trends, typically lasting about 18 years. Secular bull markets generally see
stocks return at least 20% for the duration, while secular bear markets see
stocks decline at least 20%. And these secular trends are interspersed with
shorter, cyclical bull and bear markets. From 1982-2000 we experienced a
secular bull market: in that period, stocks offered a return if you bought and
held for the duration … (chart) … But since then? We have been in what I call a
secular bear market. As you can see below, an investor who bought into an index
that tracks the S&P 500 as this trend began in 2000, has experienced a
negative return. And based on the typical length of a secular bear, we could
have several more years to go in this trend … (chart) And it’s not just over
the last 30 years that this cycle has occurred. We can look back over the last
century and see a continuum of secular markets, with bear trends starting in
1901, 1929, 1966, and 2000…’
Oct
31, 2009 ... or surplus, as a percentage of GDP ... USD in Millions. Robert
D. Arnott ... GSEs, the total public debt is now at 141% of GDP.
... www.researchaffiliates.com Nov 23,
2008 ... But state and local debt as a share of GDP has
quadrupled since 1945, ... as a percentage of the overall economy,
recently exceeding the GDP for the first time ever. ... Rob Arnott
is chairman of Research Affiliates ...
Robert Arnott ‘… the latest 12 months saw our public debt and
unfunded obligations grow by 18% of GDP! No wonder the debt seems to have grown
crushingly large. It’s noteworthy that, if a company computes its debt by
ignoring off-balance-sheet and unfunded obligations, the management team wins
an allexpense- paid extended holiday at Club Fed. Enron, anyone? But, if you
write the laws, you can allow yourself these games. In emerging markets debt
investments, managers are wary of sovereign credits when their deficits
approach 5% of GDP. Yet here we are, after measuring on a more economically
accurate level, running at twice this worrisome warning level… for over 25
years. The Debt If we borrow more than we earn for such an extended period of
time, the debt picture won’t be pretty. It’s not. At 60% of GDP, the United
States ranks about 25th in the world for indebtedness.1 But that’s not the
whole story. To get the complete picture, we need to factor in state and local
debt and GSEs. Note that most other (particularly developing) countries don’t
have layers of autonomous public entities of this sort. Adding federal, state,
local, and GSEs, the total public debt is now at 141% of GDP. That puts the
United States in some elite company— only Japan, Lebanon, and Zimbabwe are
higher. Add in household debt (highest in the world at 99% of GDP) and
corporate debt (highest in the world at 317% of GDP, not even counting
off-balancesheet swaps and derivatives), and our total debt is 557% of GDP.
Less than three years ago, our total indebtedness crossed 500% of GDP for the
first time. As Figure 2 shows, apart from the shadow banking system we are most
assuredly not deleveraging. Direct debt is rising, not falling. Add in the
unfunded portion of entitlement programs and we’re at 840% of GDP. Yikes. No wonder
the debt burden feels so crushing. What can’t happen, won’t happen. If we can’t
afford our direct debt, we surely can’t afford our unfunded obligations. The
stroke of a pen can take these programs to “means testing.” If retirees cannot
enjoy Social Security or Medicare reimbursal until their savings are drained,
the unfunded obligations disappear. This still leaving us true, direct debt of
5˝ times our income. It is a daunting figure. How many people do you know that
have owed five times their annual income and suffered no adverse consequences?
…
Summer
Streets Of Rage Predicted For Europe & U.S. Top historians, social and financial analysts, along with police
bodies are all predicting that Europe and America are set to experience a
summer of rage, with scenes mirroring the chaos we have seen unfold in Greece
in reaction to draconian austerity measures now being imposed by governments in
the west Deflationary
Depression and Purging To Come What
now that stimulus packages are ending, money set to plunge, market control by
insiders has to end, Fed doesnt need a monopoly, bond sales down, still high
expectations for gold. Strategic
Defaults: Is It Morally Right To Decide To Simply Stop Paying Your Mortgage? In 2010, record numbers of Americans are
defaulting on their mortgages. For most of them, it is because they simply
cannot afford the mortgage payments any longer.
european central banks intervened to shore up
the ever more worthless euro, buying into that fraudulent wall street b*** s***
story that that ‘s a good thing, rallying stocks off their lows. It is amazing
how dumb europe has become so quickly. An exception is what I believe was
Germany’s steps against derivatives, which market according to a derivatives
trader on the radio this day is a $40 trillion market (missed his name). To
reiterate as applicable to yet another fraudulent scheme previously stated,
said market is paper on paper moving around and generating commissions at
lightning computerized speed but adding no real value in real economic terms;
again, the analogy of termites eating away at the (nation’s) foundation is
apposite. As such, that money has to come from some real place and hence, the
ever more frequent and larger crashes we are seeing. Don’t forget that the
worthless paper from previous such fraudulent schemes now marked to anything is
still out there in a magnitude some have placed in the hundreds of trillions.
The
Worst Money Supply Plunge Since The Depression Means A Double Dip Is Now A
‘Virtual Certainty’ The stock of U.S.
money as measured by ‘M3′ money supply fell to $13.9 trillion from $14.2
trillion during the three months ending in April. [ This
is still an extraordinarily high level but … I don’t buy it. I believe the
printing presses have been working overtime to pump out ever more worthless
fiat currency and with the many trillions of worthless fraudulent paper still
out there and marked to anything. I further believe the same is being
surreptitiously used to supplant the fraudulent paper, the consequences of which
will be devastating, of course, as is invariably so in depressions in any
event. This scenario would also mean huge fraud accomplis. ] Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level The bankster operative who helped destroy
Glass-Steagall is back. Larry Summers, Obama’s top economic adviser, has told
Congress to “grit its teeth” and approve a fresh fiscal boost of $200 billion
to keep growth on track, reports the Daily Telegraph. Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level Kurt Nimmo | The Federal Reserve
stopped publishing M3 figures back in 2006.
The frauds on wall street et als should be
criminally prosecuted, jailed, and disgorgement imposed. If that were so, they
wouldn’t be worrying about who wins / loses since those who fraudulently play,
invariably would (and should) pay. If
they’re not prosecuted, everyone loses.
POST MORTEM AND REVIEW Ricky:
A post mortem is in order. The elements of this
worldwide con game are remarkably simple, not complex at all. Apparently you
only need a few things to make a mockery of the entire global economic system,
and big banks garnered these few important things through “regulatory capture”:
1) Unregulated, unenforced rules (particularly for
derivatives)
2) license to “mark to model” (assign your own values to your assets)
3) ability to peg present value to irrational expected future returns (based on
unlimited, exponential growth)
4) infinite leverage (no effective requirements for reserve capital in
unregulated “shadow” markets)
5) massive size, so that the bank is "too big to fail"
6) non-transparency and non-accountability.
SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY!
THE
FORECASTS:
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012
Russell Napier is the author of the book
“Anatomy of the Bear”, a professor at the Edinburgh Business School and a
consultant to CLSA Ltd. which is one of the top research houses in Asia.
Napier’s research indicates (and I paraphrase) that: The S&P 500 will
Decline to 400 by 2014 (the Dow 30 to 3800)
The S&P 500 will then undergo a major crash that will see U.S. equity
prices bottom at almost 50% below current levels (i.e. to 400 or less; the Dow
30 to 3800 or less) sometime around 2014 as Tobin’s “q” drops to 0.3 signaling
the end of the bear market, as it has done at the end of the four largest U.S.
market declines in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982.
U.S. Treasury Sales Collapse Leading to End of U.S. Dollar as Reserve Currency
Robert R.
Prechter Jr. is
author of a number of newsletters and books including “Elliott Wave Principle”
(1978) in which he predicted the super bull market of the 1980s; “At the Crest
of the Tidal Wave – A Forecast of the Great Bear Market” (1995) in which he
predicted a slow motion economic earthquake, brought about by a great asset
mania, that would register 11 on the financial Richter scale causing a collapse
of historic proportions; and “Conquer the Crash: You can Survive and Prosper in
a Deflationary Depression” (2002) in which he described the economic cataclysm
that we are just beginning to experience and advised how to position one’s self
financially during that period of time.
Depression is Imminent
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to
below 777 which was the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and
quite likely drop below 400 at one or more times during the bear market.
According
to the Debt Clock:
•
Total national debt: $13 trillion
• Debt per citizen: $42,026
• Debt per taxpayer: $117,982
• Total interest due: $1.9 trillion
• Interest per citizen: $2,211
Click here to see the Debt
Clock, which is updated every second.
•
Total personal debt: $16.5 trillion
• Total mortgage debt: $14.1 trillion
• Total consumer debt: $2.45 trillion
• Personal debt per citizen: $53,483
• Debt held by foreign countries: $4.07
trillion
http://www.usdebtclock.org
Get Real Time U.S. Debt Data
The
israeli Spin-Machine in Overdrive: dershowitz to the Rescue? Armed Israeli commandos, the elite of the
elites, rappelled to the deck of a Turkish ship carrying humanitarian relief
supplies to the 1.5 million prisoners in the Gaza concentration camp.
The yardarm is the
remedy Dozens of our friends and comrades, of wonderful compassionate
activists are dead and wounded in the pirate attack in the high seas on
humanitarian aid boats. This is a dreadful crime that will forever be
remembered and should be punished. The Israeli pirates attacked the
humanitarian aid Freedom Flotilla in the international waters over 150 km out
of their territorial waters. The boats carried no arms; the participants
strictly adhered to Ghandian mode by asking the Greek and Cyprus authorities to
search the boats to avoid later claims that they were armed.
A
Plague Upon The World: The USA is a “Failed State” Dr. Paul Craig Roberts | The American people are lost in la-la land. They have no idea that
their civil liberties have been forfeited.
US
citizen killed on flotilla reportedly shot four times in head Raw Story | A
forensic report said Furkan Dogan was shot at close range, with four bullets in
his head and one in his chest, according to the Anatolian news agency. The
explanation foisted off on the americans by war criminal israelis is probably
something on the order of ‘they just wanted to make sure they missed him’. Roberts:
‘AIPAC purchases US elections’ Russia Today | Paul Craig Roberts says that there will be nothing
that is going to be done by the United States to change the relationship with Israel.
‘US
funding terrorist group against Iran’ Press TV | A member of a terrorist organization
operating in Iran says that a US State department radio station originally put
him in touch with the group.
I include the first two comments to the foregoing
headline:
Billo Says:
June 11th, 2010 at 6:15 am
Lunacy? Keep in mind that this
country is run and controlled by lunatics. Our press government and military
seem to take their orders from Israel. Isarel wants to be known as a pack of
“mad dogs. Do we want “mad dogs” controlling us?
Here we see a bunch of
phony accusations against Iran just like we did in the run up to the bogus wars
in Iraq, Afghanistan and now Pakistan. The boy has cried wold ten thousand
times. It’s time to identify the “lunatics” and kindly take away the car keys.
If you won’t let your friends drive drunk, why do we let a bunch of “lunatic”
enemies run this place.
Glen Reply:
June 11th, 2010 at 6:47 am
Lunacy it would be.
But it is also to their great
credit that the Iranians have not made their own threats.
Everyone knows there are 3 WMD
threats, Nuclear Biological and chemical. The scariest of which is Biological.
Any attack done under the threat
of immediate biological retaliation would deter only the insane.
Watch out america home of the
insane, home of the leaders who want an 80% population reduction.
Soros
Says ‘We Have Just Entered Act II’ of Crisis Bloomberg | Soros said the current situation in the world economy is
“eerily” reminiscent of the 1930s. Gerald
Celente: U.S. Financial Markets to Collapse by End of 2010 Infowars.com | Gerald Celente is a renowned
trend forecaster, publisher of the Trends Journal, business consultant and
author who makes predictions about the global financial markets and other
events of historical importance. Jobless
Claims in U.S. Decreased Last Week to 456,000 Bloomberg | More Americans than anticipated
filed applications for unemployment benefits last week.
Market Outlook: Bearish Background to Bullish Storyline Sean Hannon: ‘The last two weekly market
commentaries have discussed how the underlying trend of the market is now
bearish and all rallies should be used to sell stocks and reduce risks. With
nearly every news outlet spouting the bullish storyline, these articles served
as an outline of a disciplined investment strategy. Those who followed the
outline have done well as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow), S&P 500,
and NASDAQ each declined over 5% since my initial warning. With the Dow still
stuck below the psychologically important 10,000 level and all three major U.S.
markets trading beneath their 200-day moving averages (MA), the bearish
backdrop is clear. Even if many are still looking for a rally, we should
understand that the primary trend is lower. Instead of focusing on how high
prices will rally, we should instead consider how much further prices can fall
…’
Bearish Sentiment Rises to Eleven Month High – Bespoke Investment Group: ‘This
week's sentiment survey from Investors Intelligence showed that
bearish sentiment among newsletter writers is now up to 31.9% which is an
eleven month high. Although the levels of bearish sentiment are still nowhere
near the extreme highs we saw during the last bear market, the inability of
stocks to 'snap back' from the recent declines certainly has advisors on edge
…’
Greek
Default Seen by Almost 75% in Poll Doubtful About Trichet Global investors have little confidence in
Europe’s efforts to contain its debt crisis or in European Central Bank
President Jean-Claude Trichet, with 73 percent calling a default by Greece
likely. 12
Reasons Why The U.S. Housing Crash Is Far From Over Over the past several months, many in the
mainstream media have hailed the slight improvement in the U.S. real estate
market as a “housing recovery”. US
Needs Austerity Too: Hedge Fund Strategist The United States will have to adopt austerity measures similar to
the ones taken in Europe, because the problems faced are largely the same,
Timothy Scala, macro-strategist at Sophis Investments, told CNBC.com. Market
Analyst: ‘BP’s Not Going to Last as a Company More Than a Matter of Months’ We’ve heard politicians, even conservative
Republicans, suggest BP would be held completely responsible for the
devastation caused by the oil spill plaguing the Gulf of Mexico, even if it
means its very existence.
US Media Terrified Of
Mentioning USS Liberty Do
you know that an american naval vessel was attacked by israel in international
waters, 43 years ago today, resulting in the deaths of dozens of american
sailors Arab
lawmaker on flotilla sparks outrage in israel (AP) - An
Israeli-Arab lawmaker's decision to join hundreds of activists on a
pro-Palestinian flotilla has elevated her from relative political obscurity,
transforming her into the poster child for the ...
DEBT
POISED TO OVERTAKE GDP Key
Indicators of a New Depression Neeraj
Chaudhary | Great Depression
II developing into something far more devastating than its predecessor You’re Being Decieved Infowars.com | We’re heading over an economic cliff and there’s
nothing the government can or will do about it except lie. The
Folly of Blindly Trusting the Government
‘What Does China Want?’
They want to speak to Rosanne Rosanna Danna, of course! ‘Asian markets tumble
on fears over Hungary’ …Riiiiight! Hungary’s the thing! … Rosanne Rosanna
Danna, formerly of SNL fame wanted in Asia to chime in with what her mama
always used to say, ‘ It’s always something ‘ . Of course, it matters little to
the frauds on wall street what the something is said to be since the reality is
… ‘This is a global depression. This is a
secular bear market in a global depression. This was a manipulated bull (s***)
cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as
has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street
frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street
churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes.’ ( It should be noted, and there have
been a multitude of other instances, that I’m getting substantial ‘attacks’
vis-ŕ-vis my internet connection which has slowed dramatically these posts. I
don’t think the interference is either accidental nor just coincidental but
consistent with corrupt defacto bankrupt america’s critics of which I am one
and not alone in that regard – slowing, militating against the devastating
truth about america.) Europe
is Heading for a Depression Despite a nearly-$1 trillion rescue operation,
financial conditions in the eurozone continue to deteriorate. All the gauges of
market stress are edging upwards and credit default swaps (CDS) spreads have
widened to levels not seen since the weekend of the emergency euro-summit. Key
Indicators of a New Depression With the mainstream media focusing on the
country’s leveling unemployment rate, improving retail sales, and nascent
housing recovery, one might think that the US government has successfully
navigated the economy through recession and growth has returned. Get Ready for a Double Dip … but many warning flags point towards significant deterioration
in the U.S. and global economy going forward and so I think that by the end of
the year or early 2011, we could very well be facing a new leg down in the
world’s economic situation … [I’d say too optimistic since, to reiterate: This is a global depression. This is a secular bear
market in a global depression. This was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a
secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes.]
The End of Buy and Hold ... And Hope Brian Rezny (I was going to insert his charts in
this synopsis but there are just too many good ones and they are a must see so
go to his article, not just because I agree with much of what he says though
he’s light on that ‘depression thing’ and overly optimistic as such, but
because he is smart – You may click here for
archived version) ‘… Buy and hold investing is a popular strategy, and the
thinking is straightforward: in the long run, the market will offer returns, in
spite of short-term volatility. In theory, this is a sensible idea.
Unfortunately, this approach does not work in today’s market. Why not? Of
course, the market is down for this month. But that’s not the reason this is
not a buy and hold environment. It’s not just about the recent correction, or
the end of a market rally. The current trend fits into a much bigger picture…
and it’s a picture of a long-term bear market. Secular markets are long-term
trends, typically lasting about 18 years. Secular bull markets generally see stocks
return at least 20% for the duration, while secular bear markets see stocks
decline at least 20%. And these secular trends are interspersed with shorter,
cyclical bull and bear markets. From 1982-2000 we experienced a secular bull
market: in that period, stocks offered a return if you bought and held for the
duration … (chart) … But since then? We have been in what I call a secular bear
market. As you can see below, an investor who bought into an index that tracks
the S&P 500 as this trend began in 2000, has experienced a negative return.
And based on the typical length of a secular bear, we could have several more
years to go in this trend … (chart) And it’s not just over the last 30 years
that this cycle has occurred. We can look back over the last century and see a
continuum of secular markets, with bear trends starting in 1901, 1929, 1966,
and 2000…’
Oct
31, 2009 ... or surplus, as a percentage of GDP ... USD in Millions. Robert
D. Arnott ... GSEs, the total public debt is now at 141% of GDP.
... www.researchaffiliates.com Nov 23,
2008 ... But state and local debt as a share of GDP has
quadrupled since 1945, ... as a percentage of the overall economy,
recently exceeding the GDP for the first time ever. ... Rob Arnott
is chairman of Research Affiliates ...
Robert Arnott ‘… the latest 12 months saw our public debt and
unfunded obligations grow by 18% of GDP! No wonder the debt seems to have grown
crushingly large. It’s noteworthy that, if a company computes its debt by
ignoring off-balance-sheet and unfunded obligations, the management team wins
an allexpense- paid extended holiday at Club Fed. Enron, anyone? But, if you
write the laws, you can allow yourself these games. In emerging markets debt
investments, managers are wary of sovereign credits when their deficits
approach 5% of GDP. Yet here we are, after measuring on a more economically
accurate level, running at twice this worrisome warning level… for over 25
years. The Debt If we borrow more than we earn for such an extended period of time,
the debt picture won’t be pretty. It’s not. At 60% of GDP, the United States
ranks about 25th in the world for indebtedness.1 But that’s not the whole
story. To get the complete picture, we need to factor in state and local debt
and GSEs. Note that most other (particularly developing) countries don’t have
layers of autonomous public entities of this sort. Adding federal, state,
local, and GSEs, the total public debt is now at 141% of GDP. That puts the
United States in some elite company— only Japan, Lebanon, and Zimbabwe are
higher. Add in household debt (highest in the world at 99% of GDP) and
corporate debt (highest in the world at 317% of GDP, not even counting
off-balancesheet swaps and derivatives), and our total debt is 557% of GDP.
Less than three years ago, our total indebtedness crossed 500% of GDP for the
first time. As Figure 2 shows, apart from the shadow banking system we are most
assuredly not deleveraging. Direct debt is rising, not falling. Add in the
unfunded portion of entitlement programs and we’re at 840% of GDP. Yikes. No
wonder the debt burden feels so crushing. What can’t happen, won’t happen. If
we can’t afford our direct debt, we surely can’t afford our unfunded
obligations. The stroke of a pen can take these programs to “means testing.” If
retirees cannot enjoy Social Security or Medicare reimbursal until their
savings are drained, the unfunded obligations disappear. This still leaving us
true, direct debt of 5˝ times our income. It is a daunting figure. How many
people do you know that have owed five times their annual income and suffered
no adverse consequences? …
Summer
Streets Of Rage Predicted For Europe & U.S. Top historians, social and financial analysts, along with police
bodies are all predicting that Europe and America are set to experience a
summer of rage, with scenes mirroring the chaos we have seen unfold in Greece
in reaction to draconian austerity measures now being imposed by governments in
the west Deflationary
Depression and Purging To Come What
now that stimulus packages are ending, money set to plunge, market control by
insiders has to end, Fed doesnt need a monopoly, bond sales down, still high
expectations for gold. Strategic
Defaults: Is It Morally Right To Decide To Simply Stop Paying Your Mortgage? In 2010, record numbers of Americans are
defaulting on their mortgages. For most of them, it is because they simply
cannot afford the mortgage payments any longer.
european central banks intervened to shore up
the ever more worthless euro, buying into that fraudulent wall street b*** s***
story that that ‘s a good thing, rallying stocks off their lows. It is amazing
how dumb europe has become so quickly. An exception is what I believe was
Germany’s steps against derivatives, which market according to a derivatives
trader on the radio this day is a $40 trillion market (missed his name). To
reiterate as applicable to yet another fraudulent scheme previously stated,
said market is paper on paper moving around and generating commissions at
lightning computerized speed but adding no real value in real economic terms;
again, the analogy of termites eating away at the (nation’s) foundation is
apposite. As such, that money has to come from some real place and hence, the
ever more frequent and larger crashes we are seeing. Don’t forget that the
worthless paper from previous such fraudulent schemes now marked to anything is
still out there in a magnitude some have placed in the hundreds of trillions.
The
Worst Money Supply Plunge Since The Depression Means A Double Dip Is Now A
‘Virtual Certainty’ The stock of
U.S. money as measured by ‘M3′ money supply fell to $13.9 trillion from
$14.2 trillion during the three months ending in April. [ This is still an extraordinarily high level but … I don’t
buy it. I believe the printing presses have been working overtime to pump out
ever more worthless fiat currency and with the many trillions of worthless
fraudulent paper still out there and marked to anything. I further believe the
same is being surreptitiously used to supplant the fraudulent paper, the
consequences of which will be devastating, of course, as is invariably so in
depressions in any event. This scenario would also mean huge fraud accomplis. ] Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level The bankster operative who helped destroy
Glass-Steagall is back. Larry Summers, Obama’s top economic adviser, has told
Congress to “grit its teeth” and approve a fresh fiscal boost of $200 billion
to keep growth on track, reports the Daily Telegraph. Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level Kurt Nimmo | The Federal Reserve
stopped publishing M3 figures back in 2006.
The frauds on wall street et als should be
criminally prosecuted, jailed, and disgorgement imposed. If that were so, they
wouldn’t be worrying about who wins / loses since those who fraudulently play,
invariably would (and should) pay. If
they’re not prosecuted, everyone loses.
POST MORTEM AND REVIEW Ricky:
A post mortem is in order. The elements of this
worldwide con game are remarkably simple, not complex at all. Apparently you
only need a few things to make a mockery of the entire global economic system,
and big banks garnered these few important things through “regulatory capture”:
1) Unregulated, unenforced rules (particularly for
derivatives)
2) license to “mark to model” (assign your own values to your assets)
3) ability to peg present value to irrational expected future returns (based on
unlimited, exponential growth)
4) infinite leverage (no effective requirements for reserve capital in
unregulated “shadow” markets)
5) massive size, so that the bank is "too big to fail"
6) non-transparency and non-accountability.
SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY!
THE
FORECASTS:
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012
Russell Napier is the author of the book
“Anatomy of the Bear”, a professor at the Edinburgh Business School and a
consultant to CLSA Ltd. which is one of the top research houses in Asia.
Napier’s research indicates (and I paraphrase) that: The S&P 500 will
Decline to 400 by 2014 (the Dow 30 to 3800)
The S&P 500 will then undergo a major crash that will see U.S. equity
prices bottom at almost 50% below current levels (i.e. to 400 or less; the Dow
30 to 3800 or less) sometime around 2014 as Tobin’s “q” drops to 0.3 signaling
the end of the bear market, as it has done at the end of the four largest U.S.
market declines in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982.
U.S. Treasury Sales Collapse Leading to End of U.S. Dollar as Reserve Currency
Robert R.
Prechter Jr. is
author of a number of newsletters and books including “Elliott Wave Principle”
(1978) in which he predicted the super bull market of the 1980s; “At the Crest
of the Tidal Wave – A Forecast of the Great Bear Market” (1995) in which he
predicted a slow motion economic earthquake, brought about by a great asset
mania, that would register 11 on the financial Richter scale causing a collapse
of historic proportions; and “Conquer the Crash: You can Survive and Prosper in
a Deflationary Depression” (2002) in which he described the economic cataclysm
that we are just beginning to experience and advised how to position one’s self
financially during that period of time.
Depression is Imminent
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to
below 777 which was the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and
quite likely drop below 400 at one or more times during the bear market.
According
to the Debt Clock:
•
Total national debt: $13 trillion
• Debt per citizen: $42,026
• Debt per taxpayer: $117,982
• Total interest due: $1.9 trillion
• Interest per citizen: $2,211
Click here to see the Debt
Clock, which is updated every second.
•
Total personal debt: $16.5 trillion
• Total mortgage debt: $14.1 trillion
• Total consumer debt: $2.45 trillion
• Personal debt per citizen: $53,483
• Debt held by foreign countries: $4.07
trillion
http://www.usdebtclock.org
Get Real Time U.S. Debt Data
The
israeli Spin-Machine in Overdrive: dershowitz to the Rescue? Armed Israeli commandos, the elite of the
elites, rappelled to the deck of a Turkish ship carrying humanitarian relief
supplies to the 1.5 million prisoners in the Gaza concentration camp.
The yardarm is the
remedy Dozens of our friends and comrades, of wonderful compassionate
activists are dead and wounded in the pirate attack in the high seas on
humanitarian aid boats. This is a dreadful crime that will forever be
remembered and should be punished. The Israeli pirates attacked the
humanitarian aid Freedom Flotilla in the international waters over 150 km out
of their territorial waters. The boats carried no arms; the participants
strictly adhered to Ghandian mode by asking the Greek and Cyprus authorities to
search the boats to avoid later claims that they were armed.
A
Plague Upon The World: The USA is a “Failed State” Dr. Paul Craig Roberts | The American people are lost in la-la land. They have no idea that
their civil liberties have been forfeited.
US
citizen killed on flotilla reportedly shot four times in head Raw Story | A
forensic report said Furkan Dogan was shot at close range, with four bullets in
his head and one in his chest, according to the Anatolian news agency. The
explanation foisted off on the americans by war criminal israelis is probably
something on the order of ‘they just wanted to make sure they missed him’. Roberts:
‘AIPAC purchases US elections’ Russia Today | Paul Craig Roberts says that there will be nothing
that is going to be done by the United States to change the relationship with
Israel.
‘US
funding terrorist group against Iran’ Press TV | A member of a terrorist organization
operating in Iran says that a US State department radio station originally put
him in touch with the group.
Professor:
Debt Spreading ‘Like a Cancer’, Euro Is Doomed The economic situation today
is drastically worse than a couple years ago, and the euro is doomed as a
concept, Nassim Taleb, professor and author of the bestselling book “The Black
Swan,” told CNBC on Thursday. Record
Number of Foreclosed Homes Seized by Banks in May A record number of Americans lost their homes
to foreclosure in May. Almost 94,000 homes were seized by lenders as banks
continue to work through a massive backlog of distressed properties. Michael
Pento Says Double-Dip Recession Is Now Guaranteed As usual, Pento’s TV appearance are about as
contained and demure as Alan Greenspan on Ambien: “[Bernanke's statement that
the economic recovery is intact] guarantees that we are going to have a double
dip recession, because his track record is 100% accurate, but it is 100%
accurate in the wrong direction. Japan PM warns of Greece-like debt crisis (AP) - Japan's new prime minister warned Friday
that his country could face a financial mess like that of Greece if it did not
deal urgently with its swelling national debt. Strikes put China on spot over labor unrest (AP)
‘US
funding terrorist group against Iran’ Press TV | A member of a terrorist organization
operating in Iran says that a US State department radio station originally put
him in touch with the group.
Market Outlook: Bearish Background to Bullish Storyline Sean Hannon: ‘The last two weekly market
commentaries have discussed how the underlying trend of the market is now
bearish and all rallies should be used to sell stocks and reduce risks. With
nearly every news outlet spouting the bullish storyline, these articles served
as an outline of a disciplined investment strategy. Those who followed the
outline have done well as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow), S&P 500,
and NASDAQ each declined over 5% since my initial warning. With the Dow still
stuck below the psychologically important 10,000 level and all three major U.S.
markets trading beneath their 200-day moving averages (MA), the bearish backdrop
is clear. Even if many are still looking for a rally, we should understand that
the primary trend is lower. Instead of focusing on how high prices will rally,
we should instead consider how much further prices can fall …’
Bearish Sentiment Rises to Eleven Month High – Bespoke Investment Group: ‘This
week's sentiment survey from Investors Intelligence showed that
bearish sentiment among newsletter writers is now up to 31.9% which is an
eleven month high. Although the levels of bearish sentiment are still nowhere
near the extreme highs we saw during the last bear market, the inability of
stocks to 'snap back' from the recent declines certainly has advisors on edge
…’
Greek
Default Seen by Almost 75% in Poll Doubtful About Trichet Global investors have little confidence in
Europe’s efforts to contain its debt crisis or in European Central Bank
President Jean-Claude Trichet, with 73 percent calling a default by Greece
likely. 12
Reasons Why The U.S. Housing Crash Is Far From Over Over the past several months, many in the
mainstream media have hailed the slight improvement in the U.S. real estate
market as a “housing recovery”. US
Needs Austerity Too: Hedge Fund Strategist The United States will have to adopt austerity measures similar to
the ones taken in Europe, because the problems faced are largely the same,
Timothy Scala, macro-strategist at Sophis Investments, told CNBC.com. Market
Analyst: ‘BP’s Not Going to Last as a Company More Than a Matter of Months’ We’ve heard politicians, even conservative
Republicans, suggest BP would be held completely responsible for the
devastation caused by the oil spill plaguing the Gulf of Mexico, even if it
means its very existence.
US Media Terrified Of
Mentioning USS Liberty Do
you know that an american naval vessel was attacked by israel in international
waters, 43 years ago today, resulting in the deaths of dozens of american
sailors Arab
lawmaker on flotilla sparks outrage in israel (AP) - An
Israeli-Arab lawmaker's decision to join hundreds of activists on a
pro-Palestinian flotilla has elevated her from relative political obscurity,
transforming her into the poster child for the ...
DEBT
POISED TO OVERTAKE GDP Key
Indicators of a New Depression Neeraj
Chaudhary | Great Depression
II developing into something far more devastating than its predecessor You’re Being Decieved Infowars.com | We’re heading over an economic cliff and there’s
nothing the government can or will do about it except lie. The
Folly of Blindly Trusting the Government
‘What Does China Want?’
They want to speak to Rosanne Rosanna Danna, of course! ‘Asian markets tumble
on fears over Hungary’ …Riiiiight! Hungary’s the thing! … Rosanne Rosanna
Danna, formerly of SNL fame wanted in Asia to chime in with what her mama
always used to say, ‘ It’s always something ‘ . Of course, it matters little to
the frauds on wall street what the something is said to be since the reality is
… ‘This is a global depression. This is a
secular bear market in a global depression. This was a manipulated bull (s***)
cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as
has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street
frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street
churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes.’ ( It should be noted, and there have
been a multitude of other instances, that I’m getting substantial ‘attacks’
vis-ŕ-vis my internet connection which has slowed dramatically these posts. I
don’t think the interference is either accidental nor just coincidental but
consistent with corrupt defacto bankrupt america’s critics of which I am one
and not alone in that regard – slowing, militating against the devastating
truth about america.) Europe
is Heading for a Depression Despite a nearly-$1 trillion rescue operation,
financial conditions in the eurozone continue to deteriorate. All the gauges of
market stress are edging upwards and credit default swaps (CDS) spreads have
widened to levels not seen since the weekend of the emergency euro-summit. Key
Indicators of a New Depression With the mainstream media focusing on the
country’s leveling unemployment rate, improving retail sales, and nascent
housing recovery, one might think that the US government has successfully
navigated the economy through recession and growth has returned. Get Ready for a Double Dip … but many warning flags point towards significant deterioration
in the U.S. and global economy going forward and so I think that by the end of
the year or early 2011, we could very well be facing a new leg down in the
world’s economic situation … [I’d say too optimistic since, to reiterate: This is a global depression. This is a secular bear
market in a global depression. This was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a
secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes.]
The End of Buy and Hold ... And Hope Brian Rezny (I was going to insert his charts in
this synopsis but there are just too many good ones and they are a must see so
go to his article, not just because I agree with much of what he says though
he’s light on that ‘depression thing’ and overly optimistic as such, but
because he is smart – You may click here for
archived version) ‘… Buy and hold investing is a popular strategy, and the
thinking is straightforward: in the long run, the market will offer returns, in
spite of short-term volatility. In theory, this is a sensible idea.
Unfortunately, this approach does not work in today’s market. Why not? Of
course, the market is down for this month. But that’s not the reason this is
not a buy and hold environment. It’s not just about the recent correction, or
the end of a market rally. The current trend fits into a much bigger picture…
and it’s a picture of a long-term bear market. Secular markets are long-term
trends, typically lasting about 18 years. Secular bull markets generally see
stocks return at least 20% for the duration, while secular bear markets see
stocks decline at least 20%. And these secular trends are interspersed with
shorter, cyclical bull and bear markets. From 1982-2000 we experienced a
secular bull market: in that period, stocks offered a return if you bought and
held for the duration … (chart) … But since then? We have been in what I call a
secular bear market. As you can see below, an investor who bought into an index
that tracks the S&P 500 as this trend began in 2000, has experienced a
negative return. And based on the typical length of a secular bear, we could
have several more years to go in this trend … (chart) And it’s not just over
the last 30 years that this cycle has occurred. We can look back over the last
century and see a continuum of secular markets, with bear trends starting in
1901, 1929, 1966, and 2000…’
Oct
31, 2009 ... or surplus, as a percentage of GDP ... USD in Millions. Robert
D. Arnott ... GSEs, the total public debt is now at 141% of GDP.
... www.researchaffiliates.com Nov 23,
2008 ... But state and local debt as a share of GDP has
quadrupled since 1945, ... as a percentage of the overall economy,
recently exceeding the GDP for the first time ever. ... Rob Arnott
is chairman of Research Affiliates ...
Robert Arnott ‘… the latest 12 months saw our public debt and
unfunded obligations grow by 18% of GDP! No wonder the debt seems to have grown
crushingly large. It’s noteworthy that, if a company computes its debt by
ignoring off-balance-sheet and unfunded obligations, the management team wins
an allexpense- paid extended holiday at Club Fed. Enron, anyone? But, if you
write the laws, you can allow yourself these games. In emerging markets debt
investments, managers are wary of sovereign credits when their deficits
approach 5% of GDP. Yet here we are, after measuring on a more economically
accurate level, running at twice this worrisome warning level… for over 25
years. The Debt If we borrow more than we earn for such an extended period of
time, the debt picture won’t be pretty. It’s not. At 60% of GDP, the United
States ranks about 25th in the world for indebtedness.1 But that’s not the
whole story. To get the complete picture, we need to factor in state and local
debt and GSEs. Note that most other (particularly developing) countries don’t
have layers of autonomous public entities of this sort. Adding federal, state,
local, and GSEs, the total public debt is now at 141% of GDP. That puts the
United States in some elite company— only Japan, Lebanon, and Zimbabwe are
higher. Add in household debt (highest in the world at 99% of GDP) and
corporate debt (highest in the world at 317% of GDP, not even counting
off-balancesheet swaps and derivatives), and our total debt is 557% of GDP.
Less than three years ago, our total indebtedness crossed 500% of GDP for the
first time. As Figure 2 shows, apart from the shadow banking system we are most
assuredly not deleveraging. Direct debt is rising, not falling. Add in the
unfunded portion of entitlement programs and we’re at 840% of GDP. Yikes. No
wonder the debt burden feels so crushing. What can’t happen, won’t happen. If
we can’t afford our direct debt, we surely can’t afford our unfunded
obligations. The stroke of a pen can take these programs to “means testing.” If
retirees cannot enjoy Social Security or Medicare reimbursal until their savings
are drained, the unfunded obligations disappear. This still leaving us true,
direct debt of 5˝ times our income. It is a daunting figure. How many people do
you know that have owed five times their annual income and suffered no adverse
consequences? …
Summer
Streets Of Rage Predicted For Europe & U.S. Top historians, social and financial analysts, along with police
bodies are all predicting that Europe and America are set to experience a
summer of rage, with scenes mirroring the chaos we have seen unfold in Greece
in reaction to draconian austerity measures now being imposed by governments in
the west Deflationary
Depression and Purging To Come What
now that stimulus packages are ending, money set to plunge, market control by
insiders has to end, Fed doesnt need a monopoly, bond sales down, still high
expectations for gold. Strategic
Defaults: Is It Morally Right To Decide To Simply Stop Paying Your Mortgage? In 2010, record numbers of Americans are
defaulting on their mortgages. For most of them, it is because they simply
cannot afford the mortgage payments any longer.
european central banks intervened to shore up
the ever more worthless euro, buying into that fraudulent wall street b*** s***
story that that ‘s a good thing, rallying stocks off their lows. It is amazing
how dumb europe has become so quickly. An exception is what I believe was
Germany’s steps against derivatives, which market according to a derivatives
trader on the radio this day is a $40 trillion market (missed his name). To
reiterate as applicable to yet another fraudulent scheme previously stated,
said market is paper on paper moving around and generating commissions at
lightning computerized speed but adding no real value in real economic terms;
again, the analogy of termites eating away at the (nation’s) foundation is
apposite. As such, that money has to come from some real place and hence, the
ever more frequent and larger crashes we are seeing. Don’t forget that the
worthless paper from previous such fraudulent schemes now marked to anything is
still out there in a magnitude some have placed in the hundreds of trillions.
The
Worst Money Supply Plunge Since The Depression Means A Double Dip Is Now A
‘Virtual Certainty’ The stock of
U.S. money as measured by ‘M3′ money supply fell to $13.9 trillion from
$14.2 trillion during the three months ending in April. [ This is still an extraordinarily high level but … I don’t
buy it. I believe the printing presses have been working overtime to pump out
ever more worthless fiat currency and with the many trillions of worthless
fraudulent paper still out there and marked to anything. I further believe the
same is being surreptitiously used to supplant the fraudulent paper, the
consequences of which will be devastating, of course, as is invariably so in
depressions in any event. This scenario would also mean huge fraud accomplis. ] Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level The bankster operative who helped destroy
Glass-Steagall is back. Larry Summers, Obama’s top economic adviser, has told
Congress to “grit its teeth” and approve a fresh fiscal boost of $200 billion
to keep growth on track, reports the Daily Telegraph. Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level Kurt Nimmo | The Federal Reserve
stopped publishing M3 figures back in 2006.
The frauds on wall street et als should be
criminally prosecuted, jailed, and disgorgement imposed. If that were so, they
wouldn’t be worrying about who wins / loses since those who fraudulently play,
invariably would (and should) pay. If
they’re not prosecuted, everyone loses.
POST MORTEM AND REVIEW Ricky:
A post mortem is in order. The elements of this
worldwide con game are remarkably simple, not complex at all. Apparently you
only need a few things to make a mockery of the entire global economic system,
and big banks garnered these few important things through “regulatory capture”:
1) Unregulated, unenforced rules (particularly for
derivatives)
2) license to “mark to model” (assign your own values to your assets)
3) ability to peg present value to irrational expected future returns (based on
unlimited, exponential growth)
4) infinite leverage (no effective requirements for reserve capital in
unregulated “shadow” markets)
5) massive size, so that the bank is "too big to fail"
6) non-transparency and non-accountability.
SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY!
THE
FORECASTS:
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012
Russell Napier is the author of the book
“Anatomy of the Bear”, a professor at the Edinburgh Business School and a
consultant to CLSA Ltd. which is one of the top research houses in Asia.
Napier’s research indicates (and I paraphrase) that: The S&P 500 will
Decline to 400 by 2014 (the Dow 30 to 3800)
The S&P 500 will then undergo a major crash that will see U.S. equity
prices bottom at almost 50% below current levels (i.e. to 400 or less; the Dow
30 to 3800 or less) sometime around 2014 as Tobin’s “q” drops to 0.3 signaling
the end of the bear market, as it has done at the end of the four largest U.S.
market declines in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982.
U.S. Treasury Sales Collapse Leading to End of U.S. Dollar as Reserve Currency
Robert R.
Prechter Jr. is
author of a number of newsletters and books including “Elliott Wave Principle”
(1978) in which he predicted the super bull market of the 1980s; “At the Crest
of the Tidal Wave – A Forecast of the Great Bear Market” (1995) in which he
predicted a slow motion economic earthquake, brought about by a great asset
mania, that would register 11 on the financial Richter scale causing a collapse
of historic proportions; and “Conquer the Crash: You can Survive and Prosper in
a Deflationary Depression” (2002) in which he described the economic cataclysm
that we are just beginning to experience and advised how to position one’s self
financially during that period of time.
Depression is Imminent
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to
below 777 which was the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and
quite likely drop below 400 at one or more times during the bear market.
According
to the Debt Clock:
•
Total national debt: $13 trillion
• Debt per citizen: $42,026
• Debt per taxpayer: $117,982
• Total interest due: $1.9 trillion
• Interest per citizen: $2,211
I include the first two comments to the foregoing
headline:
Billo Says:
June 11th, 2010 at 6:15 am
Lunacy? Keep in mind that this
country is run and controlled by lunatics. Our press government and military
seem to take their orders from Israel. Isarel wants to be known as a pack of
“mad dogs. Do we want “mad dogs” controlling us?
Here we see a bunch of
phony accusations against Iran just like we did in the run up to the bogus wars
in Iraq, Afghanistan and now Pakistan. The boy has cried wold ten thousand
times. It’s time to identify the “lunatics” and kindly take away the car keys.
If you won’t let your friends drive drunk, why do we let a bunch of “lunatic”
enemies run this place.
Glen Reply:
June 11th, 2010 at 6:47 am
Lunacy it would be.
But it is also to their great
credit that the Iranians have not made their own threats.
Everyone knows there are 3 WMD
threats, Nuclear Biological and chemical. The scariest of which is Biological.
Any attack done under the threat
of immediate biological retaliation would deter only the insane.
Watch out america home of the
insane, home of the leaders who want an 80% population reduction.
Soros
Says ‘We Have Just Entered Act II’ of Crisis Bloomberg | Soros said the current situation in the world economy is
“eerily” reminiscent of the 1930s. Gerald
Celente: U.S. Financial Markets to Collapse by End of 2010 Infowars.com | Gerald Celente is a renowned
trend forecaster, publisher of the Trends Journal, business consultant and
author who makes predictions about the global financial markets and other
events of historical importance. Jobless
Claims in U.S. Decreased Last Week to 456,000 Bloomberg | More Americans than anticipated
filed applications for unemployment benefits last week.
Market Outlook: Bearish Background to Bullish Storyline Sean Hannon: ‘The last two weekly market
commentaries have discussed how the underlying trend of the market is now
bearish and all rallies should be used to sell stocks and reduce risks. With
nearly every news outlet spouting the bullish storyline, these articles served
as an outline of a disciplined investment strategy. Those who followed the
outline have done well as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow), S&P 500,
and NASDAQ each declined over 5% since my initial warning. With the Dow still
stuck below the psychologically important 10,000 level and all three major U.S.
markets trading beneath their 200-day moving averages (MA), the bearish
backdrop is clear. Even if many are still looking for a rally, we should
understand that the primary trend is lower. Instead of focusing on how high
prices will rally, we should instead consider how much further prices can fall
…’
Bearish Sentiment Rises to Eleven Month High – Bespoke Investment Group: ‘This
week's sentiment survey from Investors Intelligence showed that
bearish sentiment among newsletter writers is now up to 31.9% which is an
eleven month high. Although the levels of bearish sentiment are still nowhere
near the extreme highs we saw during the last bear market, the inability of
stocks to 'snap back' from the recent declines certainly has advisors on edge
…’
Greek
Default Seen by Almost 75% in Poll Doubtful About Trichet Global investors have little confidence in
Europe’s efforts to contain its debt crisis or in European Central Bank
President Jean-Claude Trichet, with 73 percent calling a default by Greece
likely. 12
Reasons Why The U.S. Housing Crash Is Far From Over Over the past several months, many in the
mainstream media have hailed the slight improvement in the U.S. real estate
market as a “housing recovery”. US
Needs Austerity Too: Hedge Fund Strategist The United States will have to adopt austerity measures similar to
the ones taken in Europe, because the problems faced are largely the same,
Timothy Scala, macro-strategist at Sophis Investments, told CNBC.com. Market
Analyst: ‘BP’s Not Going to Last as a Company More Than a Matter of Months’ We’ve heard politicians, even conservative
Republicans, suggest BP would be held completely responsible for the
devastation caused by the oil spill plaguing the Gulf of Mexico, even if it
means its very existence.
US Media Terrified Of
Mentioning USS Liberty Do
you know that an american naval vessel was attacked by israel in international
waters, 43 years ago today, resulting in the deaths of dozens of american
sailors Arab
lawmaker on flotilla sparks outrage in israel (AP) - An
Israeli-Arab lawmaker's decision to join hundreds of activists on a
pro-Palestinian flotilla has elevated her from relative political obscurity,
transforming her into the poster child for the ...
DEBT
POISED TO OVERTAKE GDP Key
Indicators of a New Depression Neeraj
Chaudhary | Great Depression
II developing into something far more devastating than its predecessor You’re Being Decieved Infowars.com | We’re heading over an economic cliff and there’s
nothing the government can or will do about it except lie. The
Folly of Blindly Trusting the Government
‘What Does China Want?’
They want to speak to Rosanne Rosanna Danna, of course! ‘Asian markets tumble
on fears over Hungary’ …Riiiiight! Hungary’s the thing! … Rosanne Rosanna
Danna, formerly of SNL fame wanted in Asia to chime in with what her mama
always used to say, ‘ It’s always something ‘ . Of course, it matters little to
the frauds on wall street what the something is said to be since the reality is
… ‘This is a global depression. This is a
secular bear market in a global depression. This was a manipulated bull (s***)
cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as
has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street
frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street
churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes.’ ( It should be noted, and there have
been a multitude of other instances, that I’m getting substantial ‘attacks’
vis-ŕ-vis my internet connection which has slowed dramatically these posts. I
don’t think the interference is either accidental nor just coincidental but
consistent with corrupt defacto bankrupt america’s critics of which I am one
and not alone in that regard – slowing, militating against the devastating
truth about america.) Europe
is Heading for a Depression Despite a nearly-$1 trillion rescue operation,
financial conditions in the eurozone continue to deteriorate. All the gauges of
market stress are edging upwards and credit default swaps (CDS) spreads have
widened to levels not seen since the weekend of the emergency euro-summit. Key
Indicators of a New Depression With the mainstream media focusing on the
country’s leveling unemployment rate, improving retail sales, and nascent
housing recovery, one might think that the US government has successfully
navigated the economy through recession and growth has returned. Get Ready for a Double Dip … but many warning flags point towards significant deterioration
in the U.S. and global economy going forward and so I think that by the end of
the year or early 2011, we could very well be facing a new leg down in the
world’s economic situation … [I’d say too optimistic since, to reiterate: This is a global depression. This is a secular bear
market in a global depression. This was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a
secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes.]
The End of Buy and Hold ... And Hope Brian Rezny (I was going to insert his charts in
this synopsis but there are just too many good ones and they are a must see so
go to his article, not just because I agree with much of what he says though
he’s light on that ‘depression thing’ and overly optimistic as such, but
because he is smart – You may click here for
archived version) ‘… Buy and hold investing is a popular strategy, and the
thinking is straightforward: in the long run, the market will offer returns, in
spite of short-term volatility. In theory, this is a sensible idea.
Unfortunately, this approach does not work in today’s market. Why not? Of
course, the market is down for this month. But that’s not the reason this is
not a buy and hold environment. It’s not just about the recent correction, or
the end of a market rally. The current trend fits into a much bigger picture…
and it’s a picture of a long-term bear market. Secular markets are long-term
trends, typically lasting about 18 years. Secular bull markets generally see stocks
return at least 20% for the duration, while secular bear markets see stocks
decline at least 20%. And these secular trends are interspersed with shorter,
cyclical bull and bear markets. From 1982-2000 we experienced a secular bull
market: in that period, stocks offered a return if you bought and held for the
duration … (chart) … But since then? We have been in what I call a secular bear
market. As you can see below, an investor who bought into an index that tracks
the S&P 500 as this trend began in 2000, has experienced a negative return.
And based on the typical length of a secular bear, we could have several more
years to go in this trend … (chart) And it’s not just over the last 30 years
that this cycle has occurred. We can look back over the last century and see a
continuum of secular markets, with bear trends starting in 1901, 1929, 1966,
and 2000…’
Oct
31, 2009 ... or surplus, as a percentage of GDP ... USD in Millions. Robert
D. Arnott ... GSEs, the total public debt is now at 141% of GDP.
... www.researchaffiliates.com Nov 23,
2008 ... But state and local debt as a share of GDP has
quadrupled since 1945, ... as a percentage of the overall economy,
recently exceeding the GDP for the first time ever. ... Rob Arnott
is chairman of Research Affiliates ...
Robert Arnott ‘… the latest 12 months saw our public debt and
unfunded obligations grow by 18% of GDP! No wonder the debt seems to have grown
crushingly large. It’s noteworthy that, if a company computes its debt by
ignoring off-balance-sheet and unfunded obligations, the management team wins
an allexpense- paid extended holiday at Club Fed. Enron, anyone? But, if you
write the laws, you can allow yourself these games. In emerging markets debt
investments, managers are wary of sovereign credits when their deficits
approach 5% of GDP. Yet here we are, after measuring on a more economically
accurate level, running at twice this worrisome warning level… for over 25
years. The Debt If we borrow more than we earn for such an extended period of time,
the debt picture won’t be pretty. It’s not. At 60% of GDP, the United States
ranks about 25th in the world for indebtedness.1 But that’s not the whole
story. To get the complete picture, we need to factor in state and local debt
and GSEs. Note that most other (particularly developing) countries don’t have
layers of autonomous public entities of this sort. Adding federal, state,
local, and GSEs, the total public debt is now at 141% of GDP. That puts the
United States in some elite company— only Japan, Lebanon, and Zimbabwe are
higher. Add in household debt (highest in the world at 99% of GDP) and
corporate debt (highest in the world at 317% of GDP, not even counting
off-balancesheet swaps and derivatives), and our total debt is 557% of GDP.
Less than three years ago, our total indebtedness crossed 500% of GDP for the
first time. As Figure 2 shows, apart from the shadow banking system we are most
assuredly not deleveraging. Direct debt is rising, not falling. Add in the
unfunded portion of entitlement programs and we’re at 840% of GDP. Yikes. No
wonder the debt burden feels so crushing. What can’t happen, won’t happen. If
we can’t afford our direct debt, we surely can’t afford our unfunded
obligations. The stroke of a pen can take these programs to “means testing.” If
retirees cannot enjoy Social Security or Medicare reimbursal until their
savings are drained, the unfunded obligations disappear. This still leaving us
true, direct debt of 5˝ times our income. It is a daunting figure. How many
people do you know that have owed five times their annual income and suffered
no adverse consequences? …
Summer
Streets Of Rage Predicted For Europe & U.S. Top historians, social and financial analysts, along with police
bodies are all predicting that Europe and America are set to experience a
summer of rage, with scenes mirroring the chaos we have seen unfold in Greece
in reaction to draconian austerity measures now being imposed by governments in
the west Deflationary
Depression and Purging To Come What
now that stimulus packages are ending, money set to plunge, market control by
insiders has to end, Fed doesnt need a monopoly, bond sales down, still high
expectations for gold. Strategic
Defaults: Is It Morally Right To Decide To Simply Stop Paying Your Mortgage? In 2010, record numbers of Americans are
defaulting on their mortgages. For most of them, it is because they simply
cannot afford the mortgage payments any longer.
european central banks intervened to shore up
the ever more worthless euro, buying into that fraudulent wall street b*** s***
story that that ‘s a good thing, rallying stocks off their lows. It is amazing
how dumb europe has become so quickly. An exception is what I believe was
Germany’s steps against derivatives, which market according to a derivatives
trader on the radio this day is a $40 trillion market (missed his name). To
reiterate as applicable to yet another fraudulent scheme previously stated,
said market is paper on paper moving around and generating commissions at
lightning computerized speed but adding no real value in real economic terms;
again, the analogy of termites eating away at the (nation’s) foundation is
apposite. As such, that money has to come from some real place and hence, the
ever more frequent and larger crashes we are seeing. Don’t forget that the
worthless paper from previous such fraudulent schemes now marked to anything is
still out there in a magnitude some have placed in the hundreds of trillions.
The
Worst Money Supply Plunge Since The Depression Means A Double Dip Is Now A
‘Virtual Certainty’ The stock of
U.S. money as measured by ‘M3′ money supply fell to $13.9 trillion from
$14.2 trillion during the three months ending in April. [ This is still an extraordinarily high level but … I don’t
buy it. I believe the printing presses have been working overtime to pump out
ever more worthless fiat currency and with the many trillions of worthless
fraudulent paper still out there and marked to anything. I further believe the
same is being surreptitiously used to supplant the fraudulent paper, the
consequences of which will be devastating, of course, as is invariably so in
depressions in any event. This scenario would also mean huge fraud accomplis. ] Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level The bankster operative who helped destroy
Glass-Steagall is back. Larry Summers, Obama’s top economic adviser, has told
Congress to “grit its teeth” and approve a fresh fiscal boost of $200 billion
to keep growth on track, reports the Daily Telegraph. Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level Kurt Nimmo | The Federal Reserve
stopped publishing M3 figures back in 2006.
The frauds on wall street et als should be
criminally prosecuted, jailed, and disgorgement imposed. If that were so, they
wouldn’t be worrying about who wins / loses since those who fraudulently play,
invariably would (and should) pay. If
they’re not prosecuted, everyone loses.
POST MORTEM AND REVIEW Ricky:
A post mortem is in order. The elements of this
worldwide con game are remarkably simple, not complex at all. Apparently you
only need a few things to make a mockery of the entire global economic system,
and big banks garnered these few important things through “regulatory capture”:
1) Unregulated, unenforced rules (particularly for
derivatives)
2) license to “mark to model” (assign your own values to your assets)
3) ability to peg present value to irrational expected future returns (based on
unlimited, exponential growth)
4) infinite leverage (no effective requirements for reserve capital in
unregulated “shadow” markets)
5) massive size, so that the bank is "too big to fail"
6) non-transparency and non-accountability.
SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY!
THE
FORECASTS:
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012
Russell Napier is the author of the book
“Anatomy of the Bear”, a professor at the Edinburgh Business School and a
consultant to CLSA Ltd. which is one of the top research houses in Asia.
Napier’s research indicates (and I paraphrase) that: The S&P 500 will
Decline to 400 by 2014 (the Dow 30 to 3800)
The S&P 500 will then undergo a major crash that will see U.S. equity
prices bottom at almost 50% below current levels (i.e. to 400 or less; the Dow
30 to 3800 or less) sometime around 2014 as Tobin’s “q” drops to 0.3 signaling
the end of the bear market, as it has done at the end of the four largest U.S.
market declines in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982.
U.S. Treasury Sales Collapse Leading to End of U.S. Dollar as Reserve Currency
Robert R.
Prechter Jr. is
author of a number of newsletters and books including “Elliott Wave Principle”
(1978) in which he predicted the super bull market of the 1980s; “At the Crest
of the Tidal Wave – A Forecast of the Great Bear Market” (1995) in which he
predicted a slow motion economic earthquake, brought about by a great asset
mania, that would register 11 on the financial Richter scale causing a collapse
of historic proportions; and “Conquer the Crash: You can Survive and Prosper in
a Deflationary Depression” (2002) in which he described the economic cataclysm
that we are just beginning to experience and advised how to position one’s self
financially during that period of time.
Depression is Imminent
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to
below 777 which was the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and
quite likely drop below 400 at one or more times during the bear market.
According
to the Debt Clock:
•
Total national debt: $13 trillion
• Debt per citizen: $42,026
• Debt per taxpayer: $117,982
• Total interest due: $1.9 trillion
• Interest per citizen: $2,211
Click here to see the Debt
Clock, which is updated every second.
•
Total personal debt: $16.5 trillion
• Total mortgage debt: $14.1 trillion
• Total consumer debt: $2.45 trillion
• Personal debt per citizen: $53,483
• Debt held by foreign countries: $4.07
trillion
http://www.usdebtclock.org
Get Real Time U.S. Debt Data
The
israeli Spin-Machine in Overdrive: dershowitz to the Rescue? Armed Israeli commandos, the elite of the
elites, rappelled to the deck of a Turkish ship carrying humanitarian relief
supplies to the 1.5 million prisoners in the Gaza concentration camp.
The yardarm is the
remedy Dozens of our friends and comrades, of wonderful compassionate
activists are dead and wounded in the pirate attack in the high seas on
humanitarian aid boats. This is a dreadful crime that will forever be
remembered and should be punished. The Israeli pirates attacked the
humanitarian aid Freedom Flotilla in the international waters over 150 km out
of their territorial waters. The boats carried no arms; the participants
strictly adhered to Ghandian mode by asking the Greek and Cyprus authorities to
search the boats to avoid later claims that they were armed.
A
Plague Upon The World: The USA is a “Failed State” Dr. Paul Craig Roberts | The American people are lost in la-la land. They have no idea that
their civil liberties have been forfeited.
US
citizen killed on flotilla reportedly shot four times in head Raw Story | A
forensic report said Furkan Dogan was shot at close range, with four bullets in
his head and one in his chest, according to the Anatolian news agency. The
explanation foisted off on the americans by war criminal israelis is probably
something on the order of ‘they just wanted to make sure they missed him’. Roberts:
‘AIPAC purchases US elections’ Russia Today | Paul Craig Roberts says that there will be nothing
that is going to be done by the United States to change the relationship with
Israel.
‘US
funding terrorist group against Iran’ Press TV | A member of a terrorist organization
operating in Iran says that a US State department radio station originally put
him in touch with the group.
Paul
Craig Roberts: Government Abandoned Vietnam POWs Kurt Nimmo | John McCain worked overtime to
make sure Vietnam POWs never came home. I think the even bigger story vis-ŕ-vis
mccain is: http://www.albertpeia.com/heroenot.htm ‘Did you know that that so-called
"american heroe" john mccain was referred to by his fellow pows in
Vietnam as something akin to the "songbird" inasmuch as he was
constantly "singing" to his Viet-Cong captors to curry favor and
better treatment? This has been documented with authority by Colonel David
Hackworth. The same violates military code/protocol (other soldiers have been
court-martialed for far less)
click Here, Here. [ http://www.albertpeia.com/hackworth.htm
] But, you see, this covered up
scenario, compromizing the false facade of far less than a heroe, is exactly
what a criminal (lie of a) nation as america loves and encourages (get
everyone's hands dirty so no-one dares to rectify same, ie., bush, sr., clinton,
bush, jr.). That is, "toe the (corrupt, propagandized) line", become
a criminal, or be exposed, prosecuted, and/or ruined; and, hasn't anyone asked
how "wall street" has been "spared the spotlight" (and even
was accorded protective legislation from their criminal culpability) and focus
of inquiry, attention, and prosecution despite being the primary beneficiaries
financial and otherwise of these scams (you know the wall street motto,
"churn and earn"; huge conflicts of interest if not outright fraud)…’
Coalition wants UK space lift-off [ Don’t make me laugh! ]
Israel’s
Nukes Out of the Shadows Israel
faces unprecedented pressure to abandon its official policy of “ambiguity” on
its possession of nuclear weapons as the international community meets at the
United Nations in New York this week to consider banning such arsenals from the
Middle East.
NASA wants mission to bring Martian rocks to Earth (AP) Why?
They already have that and more:
Launch
of secret US space ship masks even more secret launch of new weapon
http://www.albertpeia.com/UFOetryWeNeverWentToTheMoonPNTV.wmv
[To the Professor at the beginning of the course]
10-5-09
Postscript: Professor *****,
I felt compelled to thank you again for the add; not to curry your favor but
indeed to express profound thanks inasmuch as this is probably the last formal
course at a formal educational institution I'll ever take; and among the most
important. While I had bought at discount a library-discarded 1993 Anthropology
by Embers text, though meaning to read same never quite got to it. I am
astounded by the substantial amount of time involved in the evolutionary
process, not that I ever stopped to think about it, and one must come away with
the sense of 'and all that...for this?'. This course should be required
curriculum along with psychology, sociology, etc., but probably won't be owing
to what is, as it should be, a very humbling educational experience for any
member of the human race.
Regards,
Al Peia
Drudgereport: DEBT RISE TO
$19,600,000,000,000.00 BY 2015
NY MAY SHUT NEXT WEEK: Paterson Warns Chaos,
Anarchy...
GALLUP: NEW LOW FOR O, SLIPS TO
44%...
POLL: Voter support for
Congress at all-time low...
Retail
sales unexpectedly fall in May...
...plunge
by largest amount in 8 months
BP eyes showdown with US govt on
liability...
Ahmadinejad:
Israel 'doomed'...
UN hits Iran with new sanctions over nuclear
program...
TURKEY, BRAZIL VOTE AGAINST...
Ahmadinejad: Resolution 'like a used
handkerchief'...
Copter shot down in Afghanistan; 4 Americans
dead...
Gates predicts tough summer, confident of
gains…Oooooh! Sounds like a plam!...
Shares Plunge 16% as Pressures Mount...
'Month before they declare Chapter 11'...
PAPER: Obama's attacks on BP hurting British
pensioners...
Windows shot out at BP gas station...
POLL:
74% Oppose Tax On DRUDGE, Web Sites To Help Newspapers...
Ahmadinejad
Stresses Need for 'New World Order'...
Russia,
Iran in joint venture for nuclear plant...
Two
more Palestinians killed by Israel wash ashore...
UN rebukes of Israel
permitted in US policy shift...
DEBT
POISED TO OVERTAKE GDP
POLL:
BP Oil Spill Response Rated Worse than Katrina...
'Three
Cheers for Helen Thomas'...
Fleisher:
Ethnic Cleansing by israel … Wouldn’t
abrogation of flawed / failed
balfour and sending jews home to europe be the wisest and most peace generating
course ...
UPDATE:
Crude gushes from cap; only a fraction captured...
Census
Worker Claims Job Numbers Being Inflated...
Bilderberg
2010: Between the sword and the wall...
Protesters
'being detained, searched, questioned'...
Final
List of Participants...
Stephen
Hawking: Aliens exist but don't talk to them -- it's too dangerous … might not
like us… Oh pshaw! … Human nature, man’s inhumanity to man? … Such humble
beginnings and evolutionary history … What’s not to like? … Besides, not
to worry. With their advanced technologies that defy human understanding,
the aliens already know you’re here … to stay. So, not to worry. After all, as
we know from that documentary of that same name, ‘Earth Girls Are Easy’ … and
then there’s photosynthesis on earth in a very big way also going for it! ...
Seeing
Aliens Will Likely Take Centuries. Centuries? Not goin’ to happen; at best,
decades.
Click here to see the Debt
Clock, which is updated every second.
•
Total personal debt: $16.5 trillion
• Total mortgage debt: $14.1 trillion
• Total consumer debt: $2.45 trillion
• Personal debt per citizen: $53,483
• Debt held by foreign countries: $4.07
trillion
http://www.usdebtclock.org
Get Real Time U.S. Debt Data
The
israeli Spin-Machine in Overdrive: dershowitz to the Rescue? Armed Israeli commandos, the elite of the
elites, rappelled to the deck of a Turkish ship carrying humanitarian relief
supplies to the 1.5 million prisoners in the Gaza concentration camp.
Market Outlook: Bearish Background to Bullish Storyline Sean Hannon: ‘The last two weekly market
commentaries have discussed how the underlying trend of the market is now
bearish and all rallies should be used to sell stocks and reduce risks. With
nearly every news outlet spouting the bullish storyline, these articles served
as an outline of a disciplined investment strategy. Those who followed the
outline have done well as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow), S&P 500,
and NASDAQ each declined over 5% since my initial warning. With the Dow still
stuck below the psychologically important 10,000 level and all three major U.S.
markets trading beneath their 200-day moving averages (MA), the bearish
backdrop is clear. Even if many are still looking for a rally, we should
understand that the primary trend is lower. Instead of focusing on how high
prices will rally, we should instead consider how much further prices can fall
…’
Bearish Sentiment Rises to Eleven Month High – Bespoke Investment Group: ‘This
week's sentiment survey from Investors Intelligence showed that
bearish sentiment among newsletter writers is now up to 31.9% which is an
eleven month high. Although the levels of bearish sentiment are still nowhere
near the extreme highs we saw during the last bear market, the inability of
stocks to 'snap back' from the recent declines certainly has advisors on edge
…’
Greek
Default Seen by Almost 75% in Poll Doubtful About Trichet Global investors have little confidence in
Europe’s efforts to contain its debt crisis or in European Central Bank
President Jean-Claude Trichet, with 73 percent calling a default by Greece
likely. 12
Reasons Why The U.S. Housing Crash Is Far From Over Over the past several months, many in the
mainstream media have hailed the slight improvement in the U.S. real estate
market as a “housing recovery”. US
Needs Austerity Too: Hedge Fund Strategist The United States will have to adopt austerity measures similar to
the ones taken in Europe, because the problems faced are largely the same,
Timothy Scala, macro-strategist at Sophis Investments, told CNBC.com. Market
Analyst: ‘BP’s Not Going to Last as a Company More Than a Matter of Months’ We’ve heard politicians, even conservative
Republicans, suggest BP would be held completely responsible for the
devastation caused by the oil spill plaguing the Gulf of Mexico, even if it
means its very existence.
MSNBC
Hit Piece Smears Tea Party As Neo-Nazis An MSNBC hit piece set to air next week attempts to smear Tea
Party activists and average Americans concerned about how the financial crisis
is being exploited as neo-nazi Hitler supporters who want to go on killing
sprees, highlighting once again the corporate media’s desperation to eviscerate
the popularity of anti-establishment political candidates in the run up to the
November elections. Neocon
Frum Shills For Bilderberg Arch
Neocon David Frum, the man who coined the term “axis of evil” as a speech
writer of George W. Bush, wants us to believe that the Bilderberg Group
consists of a washed up group of old men who do not really have any political
power or influence, a claim we have consistently debunked. [ Washed up, without
any influence whatsoever? You can’t totally dismiss the prevalence of moving
money / bribes, to effect their will / ‘policies’ such as they are… so I don’t
know about ‘no influence’ … But my view is that they’re incompetent vegetables
who much like an encounter / support group you might find in a mental hospital
group therapy program, I believe they tend to be ‘mutually supportive’. ] Left-Wing
Icon Daniel Ellsberg: ‘Obama Deceives the Public Daniel Ellsberg,
legendary leaker of the “Pentagon Papers” in 1971, still has a bone to pick
with the White House. In an interview with SPIEGEL ONLINE, the 79-year-old
peace activist accuses President Obama of betraying his election promises — in
Iraq, in Afghanistan and on civil liberties. Israeli
Official Threatens to Kill Turkish PM Uzi Dayan, former deputy Chief of General Staff in Israel, says
the Jewish state should consider a possible Turkish military escort of Gaza aid
ships an act of war. “If the Turkish prime minister joins such a flotilla,”
Dayan told Israeli army radio, according to the Jerusalem Post, “we should make
clear beforehand this would be an act of war, and we would not try to take over
the ship he was on, but would sink it.”
USNORTHCOM
Gears Up For Potential Attack On U.S. Soil USNORTHCOM admits that they are preparing military operations
within the United States. This is the first time in history this has been done.
They will be working with DHS, state and local law enforcement on U.S.
soil. Attorney:
Deepwater Horizon Managers Knew About Oil Rig Problem Before Explosion Top Houston attorney Tony Buzbee says he has
new evidence which indicates that Deepwater Horizon’s managers knew that the BP
oil rig had major problems before its explosion on April 20, citing the
eyewitness account of a crew member who rescued burning workers on the rig of a
conversation between Deepwater Horizon installation manager Jimmy Harrell and
someone in Houston. According to the witness, Harrell was screaming, “Are you
fucking happy? Are you fucking happy? The rig’s on fire! I told you this was
gonna happen.”
US Media Terrified Of
Mentioning USS Liberty Do
you know that an american naval vessel was attacked by israel in international
waters, 43 years ago today, resulting in the deaths of dozens of american
sailors Arab
lawmaker on flotilla sparks outrage in israel (AP) - An
Israeli-Arab lawmaker's decision to join hundreds of activists on a
pro-Palestinian flotilla has elevated her from relative political obscurity,
transforming her into the poster child for the ...
DEBT
POISED TO OVERTAKE GDP Key
Indicators of a New Depression Neeraj
Chaudhary | Great Depression
II developing into something far more devastating than its predecessor You’re Being Decieved Infowars.com | We’re heading over an economic cliff and there’s
nothing the government can or will do about it except lie. The
Folly of Blindly Trusting the Government
‘What Does China Want?’
They want to speak to Rosanne Rosanna Danna, of course! ‘Asian markets tumble
on fears over Hungary’ …Riiiiight! Hungary’s the thing! … Rosanne Rosanna
Danna, formerly of SNL fame wanted in Asia to chime in with what her mama always
used to say, ‘ It’s always something ‘ . Of course, it matters little to the
frauds on wall street what the something is said to be since the reality is … ‘This is a global depression. This is a secular bear
market in a global depression. This was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a
secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes.’ ( It should be noted, and there have
been a multitude of other instances, that I’m getting substantial ‘attacks’
vis-ŕ-vis my internet connection which has slowed dramatically these posts. I
don’t think the interference is either accidental nor just coincidental but
consistent with corrupt defacto bankrupt america’s critics of which I am one
and not alone in that regard – slowing, militating against the devastating
truth about america.) Europe
is Heading for a Depression Despite a nearly-$1 trillion rescue operation,
financial conditions in the eurozone continue to deteriorate. All the gauges of
market stress are edging upwards and credit default swaps (CDS) spreads have
widened to levels not seen since the weekend of the emergency euro-summit. Key
Indicators of a New Depression With the mainstream media focusing on the
country’s leveling unemployment rate, improving retail sales, and nascent housing
recovery, one might think that the US government has successfully navigated the
economy through recession and growth has returned. Get Ready for a Double Dip … but many warning flags point towards significant deterioration
in the U.S. and global economy going forward and so I think that by the end of
the year or early 2011, we could very well be facing a new leg down in the
world’s economic situation … [I’d say too optimistic since, to reiterate: This is a global depression. This is a secular bear
market in a global depression. This was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a
secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes.]
The End of Buy and Hold ... And Hope Brian Rezny (I was going to insert his charts in
this synopsis but there are just too many good ones and they are a must see so
go to his article, not just because I agree with much of what he says though
he’s light on that ‘depression thing’ and overly optimistic as such, but
because he is smart – You may click here for
archived version) ‘… Buy and hold investing is a popular strategy, and the
thinking is straightforward: in the long run, the market will offer returns, in
spite of short-term volatility. In theory, this is a sensible idea.
Unfortunately, this approach does not work in today’s market. Why not? Of
course, the market is down for this month. But that’s not the reason this is
not a buy and hold environment. It’s not just about the recent correction, or
the end of a market rally. The current trend fits into a much bigger picture…
and it’s a picture of a long-term bear market. Secular markets are long-term
trends, typically lasting about 18 years. Secular bull markets generally see
stocks return at least 20% for the duration, while secular bear markets see
stocks decline at least 20%. And these secular trends are interspersed with
shorter, cyclical bull and bear markets. From 1982-2000 we experienced a
secular bull market: in that period, stocks offered a return if you bought and
held for the duration … (chart) … But since then? We have been in what I call a
secular bear market. As you can see below, an investor who bought into an index
that tracks the S&P 500 as this trend began in 2000, has experienced a
negative return. And based on the typical length of a secular bear, we could
have several more years to go in this trend … (chart) And it’s not just over
the last 30 years that this cycle has occurred. We can look back over the last
century and see a continuum of secular markets, with bear trends starting in
1901, 1929, 1966, and 2000…’
Oct
31, 2009 ... or surplus, as a percentage of GDP ... USD in Millions. Robert
D. Arnott ... GSEs, the total public debt is now at 141% of GDP.
... www.researchaffiliates.com Nov 23,
2008 ... But state and local debt as a share of GDP has
quadrupled since 1945, ... as a percentage of the overall economy,
recently exceeding the GDP for the first time ever. ... Rob Arnott
is chairman of Research Affiliates ...
Robert Arnott ‘… the latest 12 months saw our public debt and
unfunded obligations grow by 18% of GDP! No wonder the debt seems to have grown
crushingly large. It’s noteworthy that, if a company computes its debt by
ignoring off-balance-sheet and unfunded obligations, the management team wins
an allexpense- paid extended holiday at Club Fed. Enron, anyone? But, if you
write the laws, you can allow yourself these games. In emerging markets debt
investments, managers are wary of sovereign credits when their deficits approach
5% of GDP. Yet here we are, after measuring on a more economically accurate
level, running at twice this worrisome warning level… for over 25 years. The
Debt If we borrow more than we earn for such an extended period of time, the
debt picture won’t be pretty. It’s not. At 60% of GDP, the United States ranks
about 25th in the world for indebtedness.1 But that’s not the whole story. To
get the complete picture, we need to factor in state and local debt and GSEs.
Note that most other (particularly developing) countries don’t have layers of
autonomous public entities of this sort. Adding federal, state, local, and
GSEs, the total public debt is now at 141% of GDP. That puts the United States
in some elite company— only Japan, Lebanon, and Zimbabwe are higher. Add in
household debt (highest in the world at 99% of GDP) and corporate debt (highest
in the world at 317% of GDP, not even counting off-balancesheet swaps and
derivatives), and our total debt is 557% of GDP. Less than three years ago, our
total indebtedness crossed 500% of GDP for the first time. As Figure 2 shows,
apart from the shadow banking system we are most assuredly not deleveraging.
Direct debt is rising, not falling. Add in the unfunded portion of entitlement
programs and we’re at 840% of GDP. Yikes. No wonder the debt burden feels so
crushing. What can’t happen, won’t happen. If we can’t afford our direct debt,
we surely can’t afford our unfunded obligations. The stroke of a pen can take
these programs to “means testing.” If retirees cannot enjoy Social Security or
Medicare reimbursal until their savings are drained, the unfunded obligations
disappear. This still leaving us true, direct debt of 5˝ times our income. It
is a daunting figure. How many people do you know that have owed five times
their annual income and suffered no adverse consequences? …
Summer
Streets Of Rage Predicted For Europe & U.S. Top historians, social and financial analysts, along with police
bodies are all predicting that Europe and America are set to experience a
summer of rage, with scenes mirroring the chaos we have seen unfold in Greece
in reaction to draconian austerity measures now being imposed by governments in
the west Deflationary
Depression and Purging To Come What
now that stimulus packages are ending, money set to plunge, market control by
insiders has to end, Fed doesnt need a monopoly, bond sales down, still high
expectations for gold. Strategic
Defaults: Is It Morally Right To Decide To Simply Stop Paying Your Mortgage? In 2010, record numbers of Americans are
defaulting on their mortgages. For most of them, it is because they simply
cannot afford the mortgage payments any longer.
european central banks intervened to shore up
the ever more worthless euro, buying into that fraudulent wall street b*** s***
story that that ‘s a good thing, rallying stocks off their lows. It is amazing
how dumb europe has become so quickly. An exception is what I believe was
Germany’s steps against derivatives, which market according to a derivatives
trader on the radio this day is a $40 trillion market (missed his name). To
reiterate as applicable to yet another fraudulent scheme previously stated,
said market is paper on paper moving around and generating commissions at
lightning computerized speed but adding no real value in real economic terms;
again, the analogy of termites eating away at the (nation’s) foundation is
apposite. As such, that money has to come from some real place and hence, the
ever more frequent and larger crashes we are seeing. Don’t forget that the
worthless paper from previous such fraudulent schemes now marked to anything is
still out there in a magnitude some have placed in the hundreds of trillions.
The
Worst Money Supply Plunge Since The Depression Means A Double Dip Is Now A
‘Virtual Certainty’ The stock of
U.S. money as measured by ‘M3′ money supply fell to $13.9 trillion from
$14.2 trillion during the three months ending in April. [ This is still an extraordinarily high level but … I don’t
buy it. I believe the printing presses have been working overtime to pump out
ever more worthless fiat currency and with the many trillions of worthless
fraudulent paper still out there and marked to anything. I further believe the
same is being surreptitiously used to supplant the fraudulent paper, the
consequences of which will be devastating, of course, as is invariably so in
depressions in any event. This scenario would also mean huge fraud accomplis. ] Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level The bankster operative who helped destroy
Glass-Steagall is back. Larry Summers, Obama’s top economic adviser, has told
Congress to “grit its teeth” and approve a fresh fiscal boost of $200 billion
to keep growth on track, reports the Daily Telegraph. Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level Kurt Nimmo | The Federal Reserve
stopped publishing M3 figures back in 2006.
The frauds on wall street et als should be
criminally prosecuted, jailed, and disgorgement imposed. If that were so, they
wouldn’t be worrying about who wins / loses since those who fraudulently play,
invariably would (and should) pay. If
they’re not prosecuted, everyone loses.
POST MORTEM AND REVIEW Ricky:
A post mortem is in order. The elements of this
worldwide con game are remarkably simple, not complex at all. Apparently you
only need a few things to make a mockery of the entire global economic system,
and big banks garnered these few important things through “regulatory capture”:
1) Unregulated, unenforced rules (particularly for
derivatives)
2) license to “mark to model” (assign your own values to your assets)
3) ability to peg present value to irrational expected future returns (based on
unlimited, exponential growth)
4) infinite leverage (no effective requirements for reserve capital in
unregulated “shadow” markets)
5) massive size, so that the bank is "too big to fail"
6) non-transparency and non-accountability.
SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY!
THE
FORECASTS:
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012
Russell Napier is the author of the book
“Anatomy of the Bear”, a professor at the Edinburgh Business School and a
consultant to CLSA Ltd. which is one of the top research houses in Asia.
Napier’s research indicates (and I paraphrase) that: The S&P 500 will
Decline to 400 by 2014 (the Dow 30 to 3800)
The S&P 500 will then undergo a major crash that will see U.S. equity
prices bottom at almost 50% below current levels (i.e. to 400 or less; the Dow
30 to 3800 or less) sometime around 2014 as Tobin’s “q” drops to 0.3 signaling
the end of the bear market, as it has done at the end of the four largest U.S.
market declines in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982.
U.S. Treasury Sales Collapse Leading to End of U.S. Dollar as Reserve Currency
Robert R.
Prechter Jr. is
author of a number of newsletters and books including “Elliott Wave Principle”
(1978) in which he predicted the super bull market of the 1980s; “At the Crest
of the Tidal Wave – A Forecast of the Great Bear Market” (1995) in which he
predicted a slow motion economic earthquake, brought about by a great asset
mania, that would register 11 on the financial Richter scale causing a collapse
of historic proportions; and “Conquer the Crash: You can Survive and Prosper in
a Deflationary Depression” (2002) in which he described the economic cataclysm
that we are just beginning to experience and advised how to position one’s self
financially during that period of time.
Depression is Imminent
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to
below 777 which was the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and
quite likely drop below 400 at one or more times during the bear market.
According
to the Debt Clock:
•
Total national debt: $13 trillion
• Debt per citizen: $42,026
• Debt per taxpayer: $117,982
• Total interest due: $1.9 trillion
• Interest per citizen: $2,211
Click here to see the Debt
Clock, which is updated every second.
•
Total personal debt: $16.5 trillion
• Total mortgage debt: $14.1 trillion
• Total consumer debt: $2.45 trillion
• Personal debt per citizen: $53,483
• Debt held by foreign countries: $4.07
trillion
http://www.usdebtclock.org
Get Real Time U.S. Debt Data
The
israeli Spin-Machine in Overdrive: dershowitz to the Rescue? Armed Israeli commandos, the elite of the
elites, rappelled to the deck of a Turkish ship carrying humanitarian relief
supplies to the 1.5 million prisoners in the Gaza concentration camp.
Why To Question the 2010 Stock Market Rally [Why To Question the 2010
Stock Market Rally – Web Site Archived with Charts Click Here - In the past year,
we've written a lot about the similarity between the rally of early 1930 and
the one we had through April of this year. The early 1930 rally came after the
market had fallen nearly 50% in the fall of 1929. The spring 1930 rally took
the market up nearly 50% again, to a level that was only about 20% below the
previous peak.
That rally, of course, was also the biggest
sucker's rally in history. After the market peaked in April 1930, it crashed
again, eventually ending up down 89% from the 1929 high and more than 80% from
the 1930 high. The market did not reach the 1930 high again for another
quarter of a century. The rally that recently ended in April 2010 came
after a crash that was actually slightly more severe than the 1929 crash (53%
versus 48%). It took the market up nearly 80% from the low! The recent rally
also lasted longer than the 1930 rally did--a year, as opposed to 6 months … ]
Goldman Even Guiltier Than Previously Assumed, Says FCIC Vice
Chairman
DEBT
POISED TO OVERTAKE GDP Key
Indicators of a New Depression Neeraj
Chaudhary | Great Depression
II developing into something far more devastating than its predecessor You’re Being Decieved Infowars.com | We’re heading over an economic cliff and there’s
nothing the government can or will do about it except lie. The
Folly of Blindly Trusting the Government
‘What Does China Want?’
They want to speak to Rosanne Rosanna Danna, of course! ‘Asian markets tumble
on fears over Hungary’ …Riiiiight! Hungary’s the thing! … Rosanne Rosanna
Danna, formerly of SNL fame wanted in Asia to chime in with what her mama
always used to say, ‘ It’s always something ‘ . Of course, it matters little to
the frauds on wall street what the something is said to be since the reality is
… ‘This is a global depression. This is a
secular bear market in a global depression. This was a manipulated bull (s***)
cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as
has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street
frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street
churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes.’ ( It should be noted, and there have
been a multitude of other instances, that I’m getting substantial ‘attacks’
vis-ŕ-vis my internet connection which has slowed dramatically these posts. I
don’t think the interference is either accidental nor just coincidental but
consistent with corrupt defacto bankrupt america’s critics of which I am one
and not alone in that regard – slowing, militating against the devastating
truth about america.) Europe
is Heading for a Depression Despite a nearly-$1 trillion rescue operation,
financial conditions in the eurozone continue to deteriorate. All the gauges of
market stress are edging upwards and credit default swaps (CDS) spreads have
widened to levels not seen since the weekend of the emergency euro-summit. Key
Indicators of a New Depression With the mainstream media focusing on the
country’s leveling unemployment rate, improving retail sales, and nascent
housing recovery, one might think that the US government has successfully
navigated the economy through recession and growth has returned. Get Ready for a Double Dip … but many warning flags point towards significant deterioration
in the U.S. and global economy going forward and so I think that by the end of
the year or early 2011, we could very well be facing a new leg down in the
world’s economic situation … [I’d say too optimistic since, to reiterate: This is a global depression. This is a secular bear
market in a global depression. This was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a
secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes.]
The End of Buy and Hold ... And Hope Brian Rezny (I was going to insert his charts in
this synopsis but there are just too many good ones and they are a must see so
go to his article, not just because I agree with much of what he says though
he’s light on that ‘depression thing’ and overly optimistic as such, but
because he is smart – You may click here for
archived version) ‘… Buy and hold investing is a popular strategy, and the
thinking is straightforward: in the long run, the market will offer returns, in
spite of short-term volatility. In theory, this is a sensible idea.
Unfortunately, this approach does not work in today’s market. Why not? Of
course, the market is down for this month. But that’s not the reason this is
not a buy and hold environment. It’s not just about the recent correction, or
the end of a market rally. The current trend fits into a much bigger picture…
and it’s a picture of a long-term bear market. Secular markets are long-term
trends, typically lasting about 18 years. Secular bull markets generally see
stocks return at least 20% for the duration, while secular bear markets see
stocks decline at least 20%. And these secular trends are interspersed with shorter,
cyclical bull and bear markets. From 1982-2000 we experienced a secular bull
market: in that period, stocks offered a return if you bought and held for the
duration … (chart) … But since then? We have been in what I call a secular bear
market. As you can see below, an investor who bought into an index that tracks
the S&P 500 as this trend began in 2000, has experienced a negative return.
And based on the typical length of a secular bear, we could have several more
years to go in this trend … (chart) And it’s not just over the last 30 years
that this cycle has occurred. We can look back over the last century and see a
continuum of secular markets, with bear trends starting in 1901, 1929, 1966,
and 2000…’
Oct
31, 2009 ... or surplus, as a percentage of GDP ... USD in Millions. Robert
D. Arnott ... GSEs, the total public debt is now at 141% of GDP.
... www.researchaffiliates.com Nov 23,
2008 ... But state and local debt as a share of GDP has
quadrupled since 1945, ... as a percentage of the overall economy,
recently exceeding the GDP for the first time ever. ... Rob Arnott
is chairman of Research Affiliates ...
Robert Arnott ‘… the latest 12 months saw our public debt and
unfunded obligations grow by 18% of GDP! No wonder the debt seems to have grown
crushingly large. It’s noteworthy that, if a company computes its debt by
ignoring off-balance-sheet and unfunded obligations, the management team wins
an allexpense- paid extended holiday at Club Fed. Enron, anyone? But, if you
write the laws, you can allow yourself these games. In emerging markets debt
investments, managers are wary of sovereign credits when their deficits
approach 5% of GDP. Yet here we are, after measuring on a more economically
accurate level, running at twice this worrisome warning level… for over 25
years. The Debt If we borrow more than we earn for such an extended period of
time, the debt picture won’t be pretty. It’s not. At 60% of GDP, the United
States ranks about 25th in the world for indebtedness.1 But that’s not the whole
story. To get the complete picture, we need to factor in state and local debt
and GSEs. Note that most other (particularly developing) countries don’t have
layers of autonomous public entities of this sort. Adding federal, state,
local, and GSEs, the total public debt is now at 141% of GDP. That puts the
United States in some elite company— only Japan, Lebanon, and Zimbabwe are
higher. Add in household debt (highest in the world at 99% of GDP) and
corporate debt (highest in the world at 317% of GDP, not even counting
off-balancesheet swaps and derivatives), and our total debt is 557% of GDP.
Less than three years ago, our total indebtedness crossed 500% of GDP for the
first time. As Figure 2 shows, apart from the shadow banking system we are most
assuredly not deleveraging. Direct debt is rising, not falling. Add in the
unfunded portion of entitlement programs and we’re at 840% of GDP. Yikes. No
wonder the debt burden feels so crushing. What can’t happen, won’t happen. If
we can’t afford our direct debt, we surely can’t afford our unfunded
obligations. The stroke of a pen can take these programs to “means testing.” If
retirees cannot enjoy Social Security or Medicare reimbursal until their
savings are drained, the unfunded obligations disappear. This still leaving us
true, direct debt of 5˝ times our income. It is a daunting figure. How many
people do you know that have owed five times their annual income and suffered
no adverse consequences? …
Summer
Streets Of Rage Predicted For Europe & U.S. Top historians, social and financial analysts, along with police
bodies are all predicting that Europe and America are set to experience a
summer of rage, with scenes mirroring the chaos we have seen unfold in Greece
in reaction to draconian austerity measures now being imposed by governments in
the west Deflationary
Depression and Purging To Come What
now that stimulus packages are ending, money set to plunge, market control by
insiders has to end, Fed doesnt need a monopoly, bond sales down, still high
expectations for gold. Strategic
Defaults: Is It Morally Right To Decide To Simply Stop Paying Your Mortgage? In 2010, record numbers of Americans are
defaulting on their mortgages. For most of them, it is because they simply
cannot afford the mortgage payments any longer.
european central banks intervened to shore up
the ever more worthless euro, buying into that fraudulent wall street b*** s***
story that that ‘s a good thing, rallying stocks off their lows. It is amazing
how dumb europe has become so quickly. An exception is what I believe was
Germany’s steps against derivatives, which market according to a derivatives
trader on the radio this day is a $40 trillion market (missed his name). To
reiterate as applicable to yet another fraudulent scheme previously stated,
said market is paper on paper moving around and generating commissions at
lightning computerized speed but adding no real value in real economic terms;
again, the analogy of termites eating away at the (nation’s) foundation is
apposite. As such, that money has to come from some real place and hence, the
ever more frequent and larger crashes we are seeing. Don’t forget that the
worthless paper from previous such fraudulent schemes now marked to anything is
still out there in a magnitude some have placed in the hundreds of trillions.
The
Worst Money Supply Plunge Since The Depression Means A Double Dip Is Now A
‘Virtual Certainty’ The stock of
U.S. money as measured by ‘M3′ money supply fell to $13.9 trillion from
$14.2 trillion during the three months ending in April. [ This is still an extraordinarily high level but … I don’t
buy it. I believe the printing presses have been working overtime to pump out
ever more worthless fiat currency and with the many trillions of worthless
fraudulent paper still out there and marked to anything. I further believe the
same is being surreptitiously used to supplant the fraudulent paper, the
consequences of which will be devastating, of course, as is invariably so in
depressions in any event. This scenario would also mean huge fraud accomplis. ] Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level The bankster operative who helped destroy
Glass-Steagall is back. Larry Summers, Obama’s top economic adviser, has told
Congress to “grit its teeth” and approve a fresh fiscal boost of $200 billion
to keep growth on track, reports the Daily Telegraph. Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level Kurt Nimmo | The Federal Reserve
stopped publishing M3 figures back in 2006.
The frauds on wall street et als should be
criminally prosecuted, jailed, and disgorgement imposed. If that were so, they
wouldn’t be worrying about who wins / loses since those who fraudulently play,
invariably would (and should) pay. If
they’re not prosecuted, everyone loses.
POST MORTEM AND REVIEW Ricky:
A post mortem is in order. The elements of this
worldwide con game are remarkably simple, not complex at all. Apparently you
only need a few things to make a mockery of the entire global economic system,
and big banks garnered these few important things through “regulatory capture”:
1) Unregulated, unenforced rules (particularly for
derivatives)
2) license to “mark to model” (assign your own values to your assets)
3) ability to peg present value to irrational expected future returns (based on
unlimited, exponential growth)
4) infinite leverage (no effective requirements for reserve capital in
unregulated “shadow” markets)
5) massive size, so that the bank is "too big to fail"
6) non-transparency and non-accountability.
SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY!
THE
FORECASTS:
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012
Russell Napier is the author of the book
“Anatomy of the Bear”, a professor at the Edinburgh Business School and a
consultant to CLSA Ltd. which is one of the top research houses in Asia. Napier’s
research indicates (and I paraphrase) that: The S&P 500 will Decline to 400
by 2014 (the Dow 30 to 3800)
The S&P 500 will then undergo a major crash that will see U.S. equity
prices bottom at almost 50% below current levels (i.e. to 400 or less; the Dow
30 to 3800 or less) sometime around 2014 as Tobin’s “q” drops to 0.3 signaling
the end of the bear market, as it has done at the end of the four largest U.S.
market declines in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982.
U.S. Treasury Sales Collapse Leading to End of U.S. Dollar as Reserve Currency
Robert R.
Prechter Jr. is
author of a number of newsletters and books including “Elliott Wave Principle”
(1978) in which he predicted the super bull market of the 1980s; “At the Crest
of the Tidal Wave – A Forecast of the Great Bear Market” (1995) in which he
predicted a slow motion economic earthquake, brought about by a great asset
mania, that would register 11 on the financial Richter scale causing a collapse
of historic proportions; and “Conquer the Crash: You can Survive and Prosper in
a Deflationary Depression” (2002) in which he described the economic cataclysm
that we are just beginning to experience and advised how to position one’s self
financially during that period of time.
Depression is Imminent
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to
below 777 which was the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and
quite likely drop below 400 at one or more times during the bear market.
According
to the Debt Clock:
•
Total national debt: $13 trillion
• Debt per citizen: $42,026
• Debt per taxpayer: $117,982
• Total interest due: $1.9 trillion
• Interest per citizen: $2,211
Click here to see the Debt
Clock, which is updated every second.
•
Total personal debt: $16.5 trillion
• Total mortgage debt: $14.1 trillion
• Total consumer debt: $2.45 trillion
• Personal debt per citizen: $53,483
• Debt held by foreign countries: $4.07
trillion
http://www.usdebtclock.org
Get Real Time U.S. Debt Data
Self-publishing turning book world on its ear (Christopher Null)
The
israeli Spin-Machine in Overdrive: dershowitz to the Rescue? Armed Israeli commandos, the elite of the
elites, rappelled to the deck of a Turkish ship carrying humanitarian relief
supplies to the 1.5 million prisoners in the Gaza concentration camp.
The yardarm is the
remedy Dozens of our friends and comrades, of wonderful compassionate
activists are dead and wounded in the pirate attack in the high seas on
humanitarian aid boats. This is a dreadful crime that will forever be
remembered and should be punished. The Israeli pirates attacked the
humanitarian aid Freedom Flotilla in the international waters over 150 km out
of their territorial waters. The boats carried no arms; the participants
strictly adhered to Ghandian mode by asking the Greek and Cyprus authorities to
search the boats to avoid later claims that they were armed.
DEBT
POISED TO OVERTAKE GDP Key
Indicators of a New Depression Neeraj Chaudhary | Great Depression II developing into something far
more devastating than its predecessor
You’re Being Decieved Infowars.com | We’re
heading over an economic cliff and there’s nothing the government can or will
do about it except lie. The
Folly of Blindly Trusting the Government
Get Ready for a Double Dip … but many
warning flags point towards significant deterioration in the U.S. and global
economy going forward and so I think that by the end of the year or early 2011,
we could very well be facing a new leg down in the world’s economic situation …
[I’d say too optimistic since: This is a
global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. This
was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a
typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great
regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into.
This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud
as in prior crashes.]
Banks Seized by Regulators in Nebraska, Mississippi, Illinois Three banks with total deposits of almost $2.3 billion were seized by regulators amid losses stemming from soured real-estate loans, raising to 81 the number of U.S. lenders that have collapsed this year. Nikkei 225 Falls Most in 14 Months on US Jobs, Weaker Euro, Metal Prices Bloomberg Euro ‘will be dead in five years’ The euro will have broken up before the end of this Parliamentary term, according to the bulk of economists taking part in a wide-ranging economic survey for The Sunday Telegraph.
DEBT
POISED TO OVERTAKE GDP Key
Indicators of a New Depression Neeraj
Chaudhary | Great Depression
II developing into something far more devastating than its predecessor You’re Being Decieved Infowars.com | We’re heading over an economic cliff and there’s
nothing the government can or will do about it except lie. The
Folly of Blindly Trusting the Government
The End of Buy and Hold ... And Hope Brian Rezny (I was going to insert his charts in
this synopsis but there are just too many good ones and they are a must see so
go to his article, not just because I agree with much of what he says though
he’s light on that ‘depression thing’ and overly optimistic as such, but
because he is smart – You may click here for
archived version) ‘… Buy and hold investing is a popular strategy, and the
thinking is straightforward: in the long run, the market will offer returns, in
spite of short-term volatility. In theory, this is a sensible idea.
Unfortunately, this approach does not work in today’s market. Why not? Of
course, the market is down for this month. But that’s not the reason this is
not a buy and hold environment. It’s not just about the recent correction, or
the end of a market rally. The current trend fits into a much bigger picture…
and it’s a picture of a long-term bear market. Secular markets are long-term
trends, typically lasting about 18 years. Secular bull markets generally see
stocks return at least 20% for the duration, while secular bear markets see
stocks decline at least 20%. And these secular trends are interspersed with
shorter, cyclical bull and bear markets. From 1982-2000 we experienced a
secular bull market: in that period, stocks offered a return if you bought and
held for the duration … (chart) … But since then? We have been in what I call a
secular bear market. As you can see below, an investor who bought into an index
that tracks the S&P 500 as this trend began in 2000, has experienced a
negative return. And based on the typical length of a secular bear, we could
have several more years to go in this trend … (chart) And it’s not just over
the last 30 years that this cycle has occurred. We can look back over the last
century and see a continuum of secular markets, with bear trends starting in
1901, 1929, 1966, and 2000…’
Oct
31, 2009 ... or surplus, as a percentage of GDP ... USD in Millions. Robert
D. Arnott ... GSEs, the total public debt is now at 141% of GDP.
... www.researchaffiliates.com Nov 23,
2008 ... But state and local debt as a share of GDP has
quadrupled since 1945, ... as a percentage of the overall economy,
recently exceeding the GDP for the first time ever. ... Rob Arnott
is chairman of Research Affiliates ...
Robert Arnott ‘… the latest 12 months saw our public debt and
unfunded obligations grow by 18% of GDP! No wonder the debt seems to have grown
crushingly large. It’s noteworthy that, if a company computes its debt by
ignoring off-balance-sheet and unfunded obligations, the management team wins
an allexpense- paid extended holiday at Club Fed. Enron, anyone? But, if you
write the laws, you can allow yourself these games. In emerging markets debt
investments, managers are wary of sovereign credits when their deficits
approach 5% of GDP. Yet here we are, after measuring on a more economically
accurate level, running at twice this worrisome warning level… for over 25
years. The Debt If we borrow more than we earn for such an extended period of
time, the debt picture won’t be pretty. It’s not. At 60% of GDP, the United
States ranks about 25th in the world for indebtedness.1 But that’s not the
whole story. To get the complete picture, we need to factor in state and local
debt and GSEs. Note that most other (particularly developing) countries don’t
have layers of autonomous public entities of this sort. Adding federal, state,
local, and GSEs, the total public debt is now at 141% of GDP. That puts the
United States in some elite company— only Japan, Lebanon, and Zimbabwe are
higher. Add in household debt (highest in the world at 99% of GDP) and
corporate debt (highest in the world at 317% of GDP, not even counting
off-balancesheet swaps and derivatives), and our total debt is 557% of GDP.
Less than three years ago, our total indebtedness crossed 500% of GDP for the
first time. As Figure 2 shows, apart from the shadow banking system we are most
assuredly not deleveraging. Direct debt is rising, not falling. Add in the
unfunded portion of entitlement programs and we’re at 840% of GDP. Yikes. No
wonder the debt burden feels so crushing. What can’t happen, won’t happen. If
we can’t afford our direct debt, we surely can’t afford our unfunded
obligations. The stroke of a pen can take these programs to “means testing.” If
retirees cannot enjoy Social Security or Medicare reimbursal until their
savings are drained, the unfunded obligations disappear. This still leaving us
true, direct debt of 5˝ times our income. It is a daunting figure. How many
people do you know that have owed five times their annual income and suffered
no adverse consequences? …
Summer
Streets Of Rage Predicted For Europe & U.S. Top historians, social and financial analysts, along with police
bodies are all predicting that Europe and America are set to experience a
summer of rage, with scenes mirroring the chaos we have seen unfold in Greece
in reaction to draconian austerity measures now being imposed by governments in
the west Deflationary
Depression and Purging To Come What
now that stimulus packages are ending, money set to plunge, market control by
insiders has to end, Fed doesnt need a monopoly, bond sales down, still high
expectations for gold. Strategic
Defaults: Is It Morally Right To Decide To Simply Stop Paying Your Mortgage? In 2010, record numbers of Americans are
defaulting on their mortgages. For most of them, it is because they simply
cannot afford the mortgage payments any longer.
european central banks intervened to shore up
the ever more worthless euro, buying into that fraudulent wall street b*** s***
story that that ‘s a good thing, rallying stocks off their lows. It is amazing
how dumb europe has become so quickly. An exception is what I believe was
Germany’s steps against derivatives, which market according to a derivatives
trader on the radio this day is a $40 trillion market (missed his name). To
reiterate as applicable to yet another fraudulent scheme previously stated,
said market is paper on paper moving around and generating commissions at
lightning computerized speed but adding no real value in real economic terms;
again, the analogy of termites eating away at the (nation’s) foundation is
apposite. As such, that money has to come from some real place and hence, the
ever more frequent and larger crashes we are seeing. Don’t forget that the
worthless paper from previous such fraudulent schemes now marked to anything is
still out there in a magnitude some have placed in the hundreds of trillions.
The
Worst Money Supply Plunge Since The Depression Means A Double Dip Is Now A
‘Virtual Certainty’ The stock of
U.S. money as measured by ‘M3′ money supply fell to $13.9 trillion from
$14.2 trillion during the three months ending in April. [ This is still an extraordinarily high level but … I don’t
buy it. I believe the printing presses have been working overtime to pump out
ever more worthless fiat currency and with the many trillions of worthless
fraudulent paper still out there and marked to anything. I further believe the
same is being surreptitiously used to supplant the fraudulent paper, the consequences
of which will be devastating, of course, as is invariably so in depressions in
any event. This scenario would also mean huge fraud accomplis. ] Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level The bankster operative who helped destroy
Glass-Steagall is back. Larry Summers, Obama’s top economic adviser, has told
Congress to “grit its teeth” and approve a fresh fiscal boost of $200 billion
to keep growth on track, reports the Daily Telegraph. Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level Kurt Nimmo | The Federal Reserve
stopped publishing M3 figures back in 2006.
The frauds on wall street et als should be
criminally prosecuted, jailed, and disgorgement imposed. If that were so, they
wouldn’t be worrying about who wins / loses since those who fraudulently play,
invariably would (and should) pay. If
they’re not prosecuted, everyone loses.
POST MORTEM AND REVIEW Ricky:
A post mortem is in order. The elements of this
worldwide con game are remarkably simple, not complex at all. Apparently you
only need a few things to make a mockery of the entire global economic system,
and big banks garnered these few important things through “regulatory capture”:
1) Unregulated, unenforced rules (particularly for
derivatives)
2) license to “mark to model” (assign your own values to your assets)
3) ability to peg present value to irrational expected future returns (based on
unlimited, exponential growth)
4) infinite leverage (no effective requirements for reserve capital in
unregulated “shadow” markets)
5) massive size, so that the bank is "too big to fail"
6) non-transparency and non-accountability.
SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY!
THE
FORECASTS:
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012
Russell Napier is the author of the book
“Anatomy of the Bear”, a professor at the Edinburgh Business School and a
consultant to CLSA Ltd. which is one of the top research houses in Asia.
Napier’s research indicates (and I paraphrase) that: The S&P 500 will
Decline to 400 by 2014 (the Dow 30 to 3800)
The S&P 500 will then undergo a major crash that will see U.S. equity
prices bottom at almost 50% below current levels (i.e. to 400 or less; the Dow
30 to 3800 or less) sometime around 2014 as Tobin’s “q” drops to 0.3 signaling
the end of the bear market, as it has done at the end of the four largest U.S.
market declines in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982.
U.S. Treasury Sales Collapse Leading to End of U.S. Dollar as Reserve Currency
Robert R.
Prechter Jr. is
author of a number of newsletters and books including “Elliott Wave Principle”
(1978) in which he predicted the super bull market of the 1980s; “At the Crest
of the Tidal Wave – A Forecast of the Great Bear Market” (1995) in which he
predicted a slow motion economic earthquake, brought about by a great asset
mania, that would register 11 on the financial Richter scale causing a collapse
of historic proportions; and “Conquer the Crash: You can Survive and Prosper in
a Deflationary Depression” (2002) in which he described the economic cataclysm
that we are just beginning to experience and advised how to position one’s self
financially during that period of time.
Depression is Imminent
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to
below 777 which was the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and
quite likely drop below 400 at one or more times during the bear market.
According
to the Debt Clock:
•
Total national debt: $13 trillion
• Debt per citizen: $42,026
• Debt per taxpayer: $117,982
• Total interest due: $1.9 trillion
• Interest per citizen: $2,211
Click here to see the Debt
Clock, which is updated every second.
•
Total personal debt: $16.5 trillion
• Total mortgage debt: $14.1 trillion
• Total consumer debt: $2.45 trillion
• Personal debt per citizen: $53,483
• Debt held by foreign countries: $4.07
trillion
http://www.usdebtclock.org
Get Real Time U.S. Debt Data
Self-publishing turning book world on its ear (Christopher Null)
The
israeli Spin-Machine in Overdrive: dershowitz to the Rescue? Armed Israeli commandos, the elite of the
elites, rappelled to the deck of a Turkish ship carrying humanitarian relief
supplies to the 1.5 million prisoners in the Gaza concentration camp.
The yardarm is the
remedy Dozens of our friends and comrades, of wonderful compassionate
activists are dead and wounded in the pirate attack in the high seas on
humanitarian aid boats. This is a dreadful crime that will forever be
remembered and should be punished. The Israeli pirates attacked the humanitarian
aid Freedom Flotilla in the international waters over 150 km out of their
territorial waters. The boats carried no arms; the participants strictly
adhered to Ghandian mode by asking the Greek and Cyprus authorities to search
the boats to avoid later claims that they were armed.
A
Plague Upon The World: The USA is a “Failed State” Dr. Paul Craig Roberts | The American people are lost in la-la land. They have no idea that
their civil liberties have been forfeited.
US
citizen killed on flotilla reportedly shot four times in head Raw Story | A
forensic report said Furkan Dogan was shot at close range, with four bullets in
his head and one in his chest, according to the Anatolian news agency. The
explanation foisted off on the americans by war criminal israelis is probably
something on the order of ‘they just wanted to make sure they missed him’. Roberts:
‘AIPAC purchases US elections’ Russia Today | Paul Craig Roberts says that there will be nothing
that is going to be done by the United States to change the relationship with
Israel.
‘One thing
president's and their handlers should learn--words matter. Obama got
everyone pretty excited on Wednesday by suggesting naively we'd have a good
employment number Friday. He probably knew the number already but was
uninformed as to what markets were expecting.’
Obama Says He Expects Strong US Jobs
Report Friday By Jared A. Favole
WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- President Barack Obama, speaking Wednesday at
Carnegie Mellon University on the economy, said he expects strong job growth to
be reported Friday."
‘That statement posted in the afternoon Wednesday led to the late day market
spike and caused many forecasters to adjust their expectations to as high a new
jobs number as 700K. Therefore, Friday's data was a major miss and
disappointment. While the unemployment rate declined to 9.7% that was only
because over 300K dropped-off the rolls into oblivion or sleeping in Central
Park. Adding to Friday's stock market rout was a new European problem child,
Hungary. This was a surprise to markets and the story is well documented by
Bloomberg. So, we add the letter "H" to the PIIGS and get PHIIGS. It
does sound better anyway. While Hungary is not on the euro, the news sent the
currency briefly below 1.20. Taken together this was all a bit much for bulls
to take and the volatile day-to-day yo-yo market resumed with a
vengeance. It was take no prisoners' type of trading as those jumping
aboard yesterday during the short-squeeze were quickly stopped-out of their
fresh positions. And the previous pattern of heavier volume on down vs up days
continues. Although all the calculations aren't made yet, breadth was no doubt
a 10/90 negative day...’
YAHOO
[BRIEFING.COM]: ‘Sellers reclaimed control of the stock market after it had
put together solid back-to-back gains. The change in tone came amid renewed
concerns about contagion in Europe and disappointing nonfarm payrolls data.
Stocks entered Friday with a weekly gain of more than 1%, but that was dashed
with this session's rout, which saw the S&P 500 drop more than 3%. That
gave the stock market a weekly loss of more than 2% -- its fourth weekly loss
of more than 1% in six weeks. Market participants sold stocks en masse upon
learning that officials from Hungary stated that economic conditions in their
country are grave and that talk of default is not an exaggeration. What's more,
the country does not plan to put austerity measures in place, leading many
wonder whether the European Union (EU) will have to provide a bailout …’
Treasury Prices Soar, Post Weekly Gains As Stocks, Euro Plunge
Wall Street Journal -
- NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Prices of Treasury securities rose sharply Friday and
posted a weekly gain as growing worries about the global economic outlook
fueled demand for safe assets. US Indexes Fall Sharply on Jobs Data New
York Times Stocks sink on disappointing jobs report Los
Angeles Times Job growth weakens in May despite surge in census hiring Los Angeles Times - A burst of hiring of temporary
census workers and people giving up on looking for non-existent jobs helped
push down the unemployment rate in May, but the nation's private-sector
employers added a mere 41000 new jobs last month, the Labor Department said
Friday. Video: Unemployment Rate Drops Thanks to Census
Jobs and people giving up on looking for non-existent jobs The Associated Press Hiring Recovery Sputters Wall Street
Journal
Euro
Falls Below $1.20 on Fresh Debt Fears The euro dropped to its lowest level in four years after a
weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report added to fresh concerns over euro-zone
sovereign debt, leading investors to file out of riskier assets. U.S. National Debt 2010 So just how big is the U.S. national debt in
2010? Well, according to the U.S. Treasury Department, on June 1st the U.S.
National Debt was $13,050,826,460,886.97.
Got
Gold? Head Of IMF Policy-Steering Committee Says Fund Needs $320 Billion To Be
“Properly Resourced” Those
observing the emperor’s lack of clothing are multiplying. Earlier today,
someone opened their mouth, and remarked on the blatantly obvious.
Say goodbye to full-time jobs with benefits CNNMoney | Many of the jobs employers are adding are temporary or contract positions, rather than traditional full-time jobs with benefits. U.S. Jobs Report Compounds Europe’s Woes Wall Street Journal | European stocks slumped as a disappointing U.S. jobs report added to worries about the health of the European economy.
Goldman
bet $35m against California (at Financial Times)
I
don’t consider myself naďve and do concede that there is typical “good old
boys, sometimes even criminal contriving and conniving done that excludes some
and includes others (that certainly is a bill gates story)”, but I don’t buy
what I believe they would want you to believe that they are more than the
incompetent vegetables that they indeed are. After all, look at the state of
the world and getting worse by the minute. They are just ‘f***-ups’, plain and
simple. Some indeed are ruthless (war) criminals, ie., kissinger, etc., but not
earth-shatteringly so, though collectively they do have a negative effect, but
predominantly because they are simply incompetent vegetables / ‘f***-ups’ . Bill
Gates To Attend 2010 Bilderberg Conference Microsoft founder Bill Gates will join fellow elitists for the
first time at the 2010 Bilderberg conference currently taking place in Sitges
Spain, after he apparently attempted to pull a bait and switch by pretending to
attend another event before being forced to admit to journalists that he will
give a speech at the globalist confab.
Large
Protests, Extensive Media Coverage Signifies Awakening To Bilderberg Agenda Large protests and extensive media coverage
of the 2010 Bilderberg meeting in Spain indicates that the world is finally
waking up to the secretive agenda of the elite group. Bilderberg
2010: Prisonplanet.com Master Page This is a master page with links to articles, videos, pictures and
coverage of the secretive Bilderberg meeting, taking place over the 3-6 June
2010 in Sitges Spain. Bilderberg
2010: Video Of Protests Large
numbers of protesters have gathered outside Hotel Dolce in Sitges, Spain, where
the annual meeting of Bilderberg Group is taking place. Research
Links Genetically Modified Food To Long Term Sterility A new study done by Russian scientists
suggests that Genetically Modified Food may cause long term sterility, that is,
sterility in second and third generations. Bilderberg
See People With Income As “A Threat” To Their Agenda An astounding exchange between Bilderberg
conference organizers overheard by a London Guardian journalist reveals that
the elitists currently gathering at the Hotel Dolce Sitges in Spain see people
with income as “a threat” to their agenda, highlighting the fact that the
globalists are intent on eviscerating the middle class and lowering living
standards.
All relevant economic / financial data was worse than
expected … (6-3-10) stocks rallied (rallies on good, fake, and bad news alike
are what bubbles are made of … as are consequent crashes) … oh, almost forgot
the higher oil part of the bull ‘story’.
The End of Buy and Hold ... And Hope Brian Rezny (I was going to insert his charts in this synopsis but there are just too many good ones and they are a must see so go to his article, not just because I agree with much of what he says though he’s light on that ‘depression thing’ and overly optimistic as such, but because he is smart – You may click here for archived version) ‘… Buy and hold investing is a popular strategy, and the thinking is straightforward: in the long run, the market will offer returns, in spite of short-term volatility. In theory, this is a sensible idea. Unfortunately, this approach does not work in today’s market. Why not? Of course, the market is down for this month. But that’s not the reason this is not a buy and hold environment. It’s not just about the recent correction, or the end of a market rally. The current trend fits into a much bigger picture… and it’s a picture of a long-term bear market. Secular markets are long-term trends, typically lasting about 18 years. Secular bull markets generally see stocks return at least 20% for the duration, while secular bear markets see stocks decline at least 20%. And these secular trends are interspersed with shorter, cyclical bull and bear markets. From 1982-2000 we experienced a secular bull market: in that period, stocks offered a return if you bought and held for the duration … (chart) … But since then? We have been in what I call a secular bear market. As you can see below, an investor who bought into an index that tracks the S&P 500 as this trend began in 2000, has experienced a negative return. And based on the typical length of a secular bear, we could have several more years to go in this trend … (chart) And it’s not just over the last 30 years that this cycle has occurred. We can look back over the last century and see a continuum of secular markets, with bear trends starting in 1901, 1929, 1966, and 2000…’
YAHOO
[BRIEFING.COM]: A barrage of economic reports provided plenty of catalysts for
trade, but broader market muddled along for most of the session. Large-cap tech
led the Nasdaq to a strong gain, though. Market participants got a preview of
tomorrow's pivotal nonfarm payrolls report with the release of the May ADP
Employment Change report, which indicated that private sector payrolls
increased by 55,000 last month. However, that was actually weaker than the
70,000 increase that had been widely expected. Initial claims for the week
ended May 29 totaled 453,000, which is on par with the 455,000 initial claims
that many had come to expect. Continuing jobless claims climbed to 4.67
million, which is more than the 4.61 million that had been expected. The ISM
Services Index for May came in at 55.4, which is in-line with expectations for
a reading of 55.6. Factory orders for April increased 1.2%, which is a slower
rate than the 1.7% increase that many had expected. In other economic news,
first quarter nonfarm productivity increased of 2.8%, which is less than the
expected 3.3% increase. Unit labor costs for the first quarter fell 1.3%, which
is a softer decline than the 1.6% drop that had been widely expected. There was
an underwhelming response to the large dose of data. Corporate headlines, which
were generally limited, also did little to inspire. Roughly half of the monthly
same-store sales reports in Briefing.com's coverage universe missed
expectations. That left the group to lag the broader market for the better part
of the session and finish with a fractional gain…
Reuters headline: wall street advances as tech soars … This
harkens back to the dot.com days and I can personally attest to the fact that
any thoughts that tech will save us, tech’s the thing, along with the next new
tech thing is preposterous and without foundation so lacking is the same in
terms of utility / added value except as to the greater efficiency with which
the churn-and-earn commissionable wall street frauds are consummated.
Oct
31, 2009 ... or surplus, as a percentage of GDP ... USD in Millions. Robert
D. Arnott ... GSEs, the total public debt is now at 141% of GDP.
... www.researchaffiliates.com Nov 23,
2008 ... But state and local debt as a share of GDP has
quadrupled since 1945, ... as a percentage of the overall economy,
recently exceeding the GDP for the first time ever. ... Rob Arnott
is chairman of Research Affiliates ...
Robert Arnott ‘… the latest 12 months saw our public debt and
unfunded obligations grow by 18% of GDP! No wonder the debt seems to have grown
crushingly large. It’s noteworthy that, if a company computes its debt by
ignoring off-balance-sheet and unfunded obligations, the management team wins
an allexpense- paid extended holiday at Club Fed. Enron, anyone? But, if you
write the laws, you can allow yourself these games. In emerging markets debt
investments, managers are wary of sovereign credits when their deficits
approach 5% of GDP. Yet here we are, after measuring on a more economically
accurate level, running at twice this worrisome warning level… for over 25
years. The Debt If we borrow more than we earn for such an extended period of
time, the debt picture won’t be pretty. It’s not. At 60% of GDP, the United
States ranks about 25th in the world for indebtedness.1 But that’s not the
whole story. To get the complete picture, we need to factor in state and local
debt and GSEs. Note that most other (particularly developing) countries don’t
have layers of autonomous public entities of this sort. Adding federal, state,
local, and GSEs, the total public debt is now at 141% of GDP. That puts the
United States in some elite company— only Japan, Lebanon, and Zimbabwe are
higher. Add in household debt (highest in the world at 99% of GDP) and
corporate debt (highest in the world at 317% of GDP, not even counting
off-balancesheet swaps and derivatives), and our total debt is 557% of GDP.
Less than three years ago, our total indebtedness crossed 500% of GDP for the
first time. As Figure 2 shows, apart from the shadow banking system we are most
assuredly not deleveraging. Direct debt is rising, not falling. Add in the
unfunded portion of entitlement programs and we’re at 840% of GDP. Yikes. No
wonder the debt burden feels so crushing. What can’t happen, won’t happen. If
we can’t afford our direct debt, we surely can’t afford our unfunded
obligations. The stroke of a pen can take these programs to “means testing.” If
retirees cannot enjoy Social Security or Medicare reimbursal until their
savings are drained, the unfunded obligations disappear. This still leaving us
true, direct debt of 5˝ times our income. It is a daunting figure. How many
people do you know that have owed five times their annual income and suffered
no adverse consequences? …
Summer
Streets Of Rage Predicted For Europe & U.S. Top historians, social and financial analysts, along with police
bodies are all predicting that Europe and America are set to experience a summer
of rage, with scenes mirroring the chaos we have seen unfold in Greece in
reaction to draconian austerity measures now being imposed by governments in
the west Deflationary
Depression and Purging To Come What
now that stimulus packages are ending, money set to plunge, market control by
insiders has to end, Fed doesnt need a monopoly, bond sales down, still high
expectations for gold. Strategic
Defaults: Is It Morally Right To Decide To Simply Stop Paying Your Mortgage? In 2010, record numbers of Americans are
defaulting on their mortgages. For most of them, it is because they simply
cannot afford the mortgage payments any longer.
european central banks intervened to shore up
the ever more worthless euro, buying into that fraudulent wall street b*** s***
story that that ‘s a good thing, rallying stocks off their lows. It is amazing
how dumb europe has become so quickly. An exception is what I believe was
Germany’s steps against derivatives, which market according to a derivatives
trader on the radio this day is a $40 trillion market (missed his name). To
reiterate as applicable to yet another fraudulent scheme previously stated,
said market is paper on paper moving around and generating commissions at
lightning computerized speed but adding no real value in real economic terms;
again, the analogy of termites eating away at the (nation’s) foundation is
apposite. As such, that money has to come from some real place and hence, the
ever more frequent and larger crashes we are seeing. Don’t forget that the
worthless paper from previous such fraudulent schemes now marked to anything is
still out there in a magnitude some have placed in the hundreds of trillions.
The
Worst Money Supply Plunge Since The Depression Means A Double Dip Is Now A
‘Virtual Certainty’ The stock of
U.S. money as measured by ‘M3′ money supply fell to $13.9 trillion from
$14.2 trillion during the three months ending in April. [ This is still an extraordinarily high level but … I don’t
buy it. I believe the printing presses have been working overtime to pump out
ever more worthless fiat currency and with the many trillions of worthless
fraudulent paper still out there and marked to anything. I further believe the
same is being surreptitiously used to supplant the fraudulent paper, the
consequences of which will be devastating, of course, as is invariably so in
depressions in any event. This scenario would also mean huge fraud accomplis. ] Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level The bankster operative who helped destroy
Glass-Steagall is back. Larry Summers, Obama’s top economic adviser, has told
Congress to “grit its teeth” and approve a fresh fiscal boost of $200 billion
to keep growth on track, reports the Daily Telegraph. Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level Kurt Nimmo | The Federal Reserve
stopped publishing M3 figures back in 2006.
The frauds on wall street et als should be
criminally prosecuted, jailed, and disgorgement imposed. If that were so, they
wouldn’t be worrying about who wins / loses since those who fraudulently play,
invariably would (and should) pay. If
they’re not prosecuted, everyone loses.
POST MORTEM AND REVIEW Ricky:
A post mortem is in order. The elements of this
worldwide con game are remarkably simple, not complex at all. Apparently you
only need a few things to make a mockery of the entire global economic system,
and big banks garnered these few important things through “regulatory capture”:
1) Unregulated, unenforced rules (particularly for
derivatives)
2) license to “mark to model” (assign your own values to your assets)
3) ability to peg present value to irrational expected future returns (based on
unlimited, exponential growth)
4) infinite leverage (no effective requirements for reserve capital in
unregulated “shadow” markets)
5) massive size, so that the bank is "too big to fail"
6) non-transparency and non-accountability.
SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY!
THE
FORECASTS:
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012
Russell Napier is the author of the book
“Anatomy of the Bear”, a professor at the Edinburgh Business School and a
consultant to CLSA Ltd. which is one of the top research houses in Asia.
Napier’s research indicates (and I paraphrase) that: The S&P 500 will
Decline to 400 by 2014 (the Dow 30 to 3800)
The S&P 500 will then undergo a major crash that will see U.S. equity
prices bottom at almost 50% below current levels (i.e. to 400 or less; the Dow
30 to 3800 or less) sometime around 2014 as Tobin’s “q” drops to 0.3 signaling
the end of the bear market, as it has done at the end of the four largest U.S.
market declines in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982.
U.S. Treasury Sales Collapse Leading to End of U.S. Dollar as Reserve Currency
Robert R.
Prechter Jr. is
author of a number of newsletters and books including “Elliott Wave Principle”
(1978) in which he predicted the super bull market of the 1980s; “At the Crest
of the Tidal Wave – A Forecast of the Great Bear Market” (1995) in which he
predicted a slow motion economic earthquake, brought about by a great asset
mania, that would register 11 on the financial Richter scale causing a collapse
of historic proportions; and “Conquer the Crash: You can Survive and Prosper in
a Deflationary Depression” (2002) in which he described the economic cataclysm
that we are just beginning to experience and advised how to position one’s self
financially during that period of time.
Depression is Imminent
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to
below 777 which was the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and
quite likely drop below 400 at one or more times during the bear market.
According
to the Debt Clock:
•
Total national debt: $13 trillion
• Debt per citizen: $42,026
• Debt per taxpayer: $117,982
• Total interest due: $1.9 trillion
• Interest per citizen: $2,211
Click here to see the Debt
Clock, which is updated every second.
•
Total personal debt: $16.5 trillion
• Total mortgage debt: $14.1 trillion
• Total consumer debt: $2.45 trillion
• Personal debt per citizen: $53,483
• Debt held by foreign countries: $4.07
trillion
http://www.usdebtclock.org
Get Real Time U.S. Debt Data
Self-publishing turning book world on its ear (Christopher Null)
The
israeli Spin-Machine in Overdrive: dershowitz to the Rescue? Armed Israeli commandos, the elite of the
elites, rappelled to the deck of a Turkish ship carrying humanitarian relief
supplies to the 1.5 million prisoners in the Gaza concentration camp.
The yardarm is the
remedy Dozens of our friends and comrades, of wonderful compassionate
activists are dead and wounded in the pirate attack in the high seas on
humanitarian aid boats. This is a dreadful crime that will forever be
remembered and should be punished. The Israeli pirates attacked the
humanitarian aid Freedom Flotilla in the international waters over 150 km out
of their territorial waters. The boats carried no arms; the participants
strictly adhered to Ghandian mode by asking the Greek and Cyprus authorities to
search the boats to avoid later claims that they were armed.
A
Plague Upon The World: The USA is a “Failed State” Dr. Paul Craig Roberts | The American people are lost in la-la land. They have no idea that
their civil liberties have been forfeited.
US
citizen killed on flotilla reportedly shot four times in head Raw Story | A
forensic report said Furkan Dogan was shot at close range, with four bullets in
his head and one in his chest, according to the Anatolian news agency. The
explanation foisted off on the americans by war criminal israelis is probably
something on the order of ‘they just wanted to make sure they missed him’. Roberts:
‘AIPAC purchases US elections’ Russia Today | Paul Craig Roberts says that there will be nothing
that is going to be done by the United States to change the relationship with
Israel.
All relevant economic / financial data was worse than
expected … stocks rallied (rallies on good, fake, and bad news alike are what
bubbles are made of … as are consequent crashes) … oh, almost forgot the higher
oil part of the bull ‘story’.
The End of Buy and Hold ... And Hope Brian Rezny (I was going to insert his charts in this synopsis but there are just too many good ones and they are a must see so go to his article, not just because I agree with much of what he says though he’s light on that ‘depression thing’ and overly optimistic as such, but because he is smart – You may click here for archived version) ‘… Buy and hold investing is a popular strategy, and the thinking is straightforward: in the long run, the market will offer returns, in spite of short-term volatility. In theory, this is a sensible idea. Unfortunately, this approach does not work in today’s market. Why not? Of course, the market is down for this month. But that’s not the reason this is not a buy and hold environment. It’s not just about the recent correction, or the end of a market rally. The current trend fits into a much bigger picture… and it’s a picture of a long-term bear market. Secular markets are long-term trends, typically lasting about 18 years. Secular bull markets generally see stocks return at least 20% for the duration, while secular bear markets see stocks decline at least 20%. And these secular trends are interspersed with shorter, cyclical bull and bear markets. From 1982-2000 we experienced a secular bull market: in that period, stocks offered a return if you bought and held for the duration … (chart) … But since then? We have been in what I call a secular bear market. As you can see below, an investor who bought into an index that tracks the S&P 500 as this trend began in 2000, has experienced a negative return. And based on the typical length of a secular bear, we could have several more years to go in this trend … (chart) And it’s not just over the last 30 years that this cycle has occurred. We can look back over the last century and see a continuum of secular markets, with bear trends starting in 1901, 1929, 1966, and 2000…’
YAHOO
[BRIEFING.COM]: A barrage of economic reports provided plenty of catalysts for
trade, but broader market muddled along for most of the session. Large-cap tech
led the Nasdaq to a strong gain, though. Market participants got a preview of
tomorrow's pivotal nonfarm payrolls report with the release of the May ADP
Employment Change report, which indicated that private sector payrolls
increased by 55,000 last month. However, that was actually weaker than the
70,000 increase that had been widely expected. Initial claims for the week
ended May 29 totaled 453,000, which is on par with the 455,000 initial claims
that many had come to expect. Continuing jobless claims climbed to 4.67
million, which is more than the 4.61 million that had been expected. The ISM
Services Index for May came in at 55.4, which is in-line with expectations for
a reading of 55.6. Factory orders for April increased 1.2%, which is a slower
rate than the 1.7% increase that many had expected. In other economic news,
first quarter nonfarm productivity increased of 2.8%, which is less than the
expected 3.3% increase. Unit labor costs for the first quarter fell 1.3%, which
is a softer decline than the 1.6% drop that had been widely expected. There was
an underwhelming response to the large dose of data. Corporate headlines, which
were generally limited, also did little to inspire. Roughly half of the monthly
same-store sales reports in Briefing.com's coverage universe missed
expectations. That left the group to lag the broader market for the better part
of the session and finish with a fractional gain…
Reuters headline: wall street advances as tech soars … This
harkens back to the dot.com days and I can personally attest to the fact that
any thoughts that tech will save us, tech’s the thing, along with the next new
tech thing is preposterous and without foundation so lacking is the same in
terms of utility / added value except as to the greater efficiency with which
the churn-and-earn commissionable wall street frauds are consummated.
Oct
31, 2009 ... or surplus, as a percentage of GDP ... USD in Millions. Robert
D. Arnott ... GSEs, the total public debt is now at 141% of GDP.
... www.researchaffiliates.com Nov 23,
2008 ... But state and local debt as a share of GDP has
quadrupled since 1945, ... as a percentage of the overall economy,
recently exceeding the GDP for the first time ever. ... Rob Arnott
is chairman of Research Affiliates ...
Robert Arnott ‘… the latest 12 months saw our public debt and
unfunded obligations grow by 18% of GDP! No wonder the debt seems to have grown
crushingly large. It’s noteworthy that, if a company computes its debt by ignoring
off-balance-sheet and unfunded obligations, the management team wins an
allexpense- paid extended holiday at Club Fed. Enron, anyone? But, if you write
the laws, you can allow yourself these games. In emerging markets debt
investments, managers are wary of sovereign credits when their deficits
approach 5% of GDP. Yet here we are, after measuring on a more economically
accurate level, running at twice this worrisome warning level… for over 25
years. The Debt If we borrow more than we earn for such an extended period of
time, the debt picture won’t be pretty. It’s not. At 60% of GDP, the United
States ranks about 25th in the world for indebtedness.1 But that’s not the
whole story. To get the complete picture, we need to factor in state and local
debt and GSEs. Note that most other (particularly developing) countries don’t
have layers of autonomous public entities of this sort. Adding federal, state,
local, and GSEs, the total public debt is now at 141% of GDP. That puts the
United States in some elite company— only Japan, Lebanon, and Zimbabwe are
higher. Add in household debt (highest in the world at 99% of GDP) and
corporate debt (highest in the world at 317% of GDP, not even counting
off-balancesheet swaps and derivatives), and our total debt is 557% of GDP.
Less than three years ago, our total indebtedness crossed 500% of GDP for the
first time. As Figure 2 shows, apart from the shadow banking system we are most
assuredly not deleveraging. Direct debt is rising, not falling. Add in the
unfunded portion of entitlement programs and we’re at 840% of GDP. Yikes. No
wonder the debt burden feels so crushing. What can’t happen, won’t happen. If
we can’t afford our direct debt, we surely can’t afford our unfunded
obligations. The stroke of a pen can take these programs to “means testing.” If
retirees cannot enjoy Social Security or Medicare reimbursal until their
savings are drained, the unfunded obligations disappear. This still leaving us
true, direct debt of 5˝ times our income. It is a daunting figure. How many
people do you know that have owed five times their annual income and suffered
no adverse consequences? …
Summer
Streets Of Rage Predicted For Europe & U.S. Top historians, social and financial analysts, along with police
bodies are all predicting that Europe and America are set to experience a
summer of rage, with scenes mirroring the chaos we have seen unfold in Greece
in reaction to draconian austerity measures now being imposed by governments in
the west Deflationary
Depression and Purging To Come What
now that stimulus packages are ending, money set to plunge, market control by
insiders has to end, Fed doesnt need a monopoly, bond sales down, still high
expectations for gold. Strategic
Defaults: Is It Morally Right To Decide To Simply Stop Paying Your Mortgage? In 2010, record numbers of Americans are
defaulting on their mortgages. For most of them, it is because they simply
cannot afford the mortgage payments any longer.
european central banks intervened to shore up
the ever more worthless euro, buying into that fraudulent wall street b*** s***
story that that ‘s a good thing, rallying stocks off their lows. It is amazing
how dumb europe has become so quickly. An exception is what I believe was
Germany’s steps against derivatives, which market according to a derivatives
trader on the radio this day is a $40 trillion market (missed his name). To
reiterate as applicable to yet another fraudulent scheme previously stated,
said market is paper on paper moving around and generating commissions at
lightning computerized speed but adding no real value in real economic terms;
again, the analogy of termites eating away at the (nation’s) foundation is
apposite. As such, that money has to come from some real place and hence, the
ever more frequent and larger crashes we are seeing. Don’t forget that the
worthless paper from previous such fraudulent schemes now marked to anything is
still out there in a magnitude some have placed in the hundreds of trillions.
The
Worst Money Supply Plunge Since The Depression Means A Double Dip Is Now A
‘Virtual Certainty’ The stock of
U.S. money as measured by ‘M3′ money supply fell to $13.9 trillion from
$14.2 trillion during the three months ending in April. [ This is still an extraordinarily high level but … I don’t
buy it. I believe the printing presses have been working overtime to pump out
ever more worthless fiat currency and with the many trillions of worthless
fraudulent paper still out there and marked to anything. I further believe the
same is being surreptitiously used to supplant the fraudulent paper, the consequences
of which will be devastating, of course, as is invariably so in depressions in
any event. This scenario would also mean huge fraud accomplis. ] Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level The bankster operative who helped destroy
Glass-Steagall is back. Larry Summers, Obama’s top economic adviser, has told
Congress to “grit its teeth” and approve a fresh fiscal boost of $200 billion
to keep growth on track, reports the Daily Telegraph. Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level Kurt Nimmo | The Federal Reserve
stopped publishing M3 figures back in 2006.
The frauds on wall street et als should be
criminally prosecuted, jailed, and disgorgement imposed. If that were so, they
wouldn’t be worrying about who wins / loses since those who fraudulently play,
invariably would (and should) pay. If
they’re not prosecuted, everyone loses.
POST MORTEM AND REVIEW Ricky:
A post mortem is in order. The elements of this
worldwide con game are remarkably simple, not complex at all. Apparently you
only need a few things to make a mockery of the entire global economic system,
and big banks garnered these few important things through “regulatory capture”:
1) Unregulated, unenforced rules (particularly for
derivatives)
2) license to “mark to model” (assign your own values to your assets)
3) ability to peg present value to irrational expected future returns (based on
unlimited, exponential growth)
4) infinite leverage (no effective requirements for reserve capital in
unregulated “shadow” markets)
5) massive size, so that the bank is "too big to fail"
6) non-transparency and non-accountability.
SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY!
THE
FORECASTS:
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012
Russell Napier is the author of the book
“Anatomy of the Bear”, a professor at the Edinburgh Business School and a
consultant to CLSA Ltd. which is one of the top research houses in Asia.
Napier’s research indicates (and I paraphrase) that: The S&P 500 will
Decline to 400 by 2014 (the Dow 30 to 3800)
The S&P 500 will then undergo a major crash that will see U.S. equity
prices bottom at almost 50% below current levels (i.e. to 400 or less; the Dow
30 to 3800 or less) sometime around 2014 as Tobin’s “q” drops to 0.3 signaling
the end of the bear market, as it has done at the end of the four largest U.S.
market declines in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982.
U.S. Treasury Sales Collapse Leading to End of U.S. Dollar as Reserve Currency
Robert R.
Prechter Jr. is
author of a number of newsletters and books including “Elliott Wave Principle”
(1978) in which he predicted the super bull market of the 1980s; “At the Crest
of the Tidal Wave – A Forecast of the Great Bear Market” (1995) in which he
predicted a slow motion economic earthquake, brought about by a great asset
mania, that would register 11 on the financial Richter scale causing a collapse
of historic proportions; and “Conquer the Crash: You can Survive and Prosper in
a Deflationary Depression” (2002) in which he described the economic cataclysm
that we are just beginning to experience and advised how to position one’s self
financially during that period of time.
Depression is Imminent
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to
below 777 which was the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and
quite likely drop below 400 at one or more times during the bear market.
According
to the Debt Clock:
•
Total national debt: $13 trillion
• Debt per citizen: $42,026
• Debt per taxpayer: $117,982
• Total interest due: $1.9 trillion
• Interest per citizen: $2,211
Click here to see the Debt
Clock, which is updated every second.
•
Total personal debt: $16.5 trillion
• Total mortgage debt: $14.1 trillion
• Total consumer debt: $2.45 trillion
• Personal debt per citizen: $53,483
• Debt held by foreign countries: $4.07
trillion
http://www.usdebtclock.org
Get Real Time U.S. Debt Data
The yardarm is the
remedy Dozens of our friends and comrades, of wonderful compassionate
activists are dead and wounded in the pirate attack in the high seas on
humanitarian aid boats. This is a dreadful crime that will forever be
remembered and should be punished. The Israeli pirates attacked the
humanitarian aid Freedom Flotilla in the international waters over 150 km out
of their territorial waters. The boats carried no arms; the participants
strictly adhered to Ghandian mode by asking the Greek and Cyprus authorities to
search the boats to avoid later claims that they were armed.
A
Plague Upon The World: The USA is a “Failed State” Dr. Paul Craig Roberts | The American people are lost in la-la land. They have no idea that
their civil liberties have been forfeited.
US
citizen killed on flotilla reportedly shot four times in head Raw Story | A
forensic report said Furkan Dogan was shot at close range, with four bullets in
his head and one in his chest, according to the Anatolian news agency. The
explanation foisted off on the americans by war criminal israelis is probably
something on the order of ‘they just wanted to make sure they missed him’. Roberts:
‘AIPAC purchases US elections’ Russia Today | Paul Craig Roberts says that there will be nothing
that is going to be done by the United States to change the relationship with
Israel.
This is a global
depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. This was a
manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a
typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great
regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into.
This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud
as in prior crashes.
Double Dip in Action: -2% U.S. GDP in Q3 Larry Doyle ‘…Since we first reported that our
"trailing quarter" had slipped into contraction on January 15th, we
have charted how the current 2010 version of the consumer contraction event
compares with prior similar events in 2006 and 2008. The current event is
significantly different; while it is not as severe as the 2008 contraction, it
has already lasted longer without forming a clearly defined bottom. We know
that if the GDP mirrors consumer activities (as at least 70% of it should, net
of inventory adjustments), both the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2010 should be
contracting at a level of between 1% and 2%. If this isn’t a classic
"W" shaped "double dip," it is at least the downward glide
of a plane with sputtering engines. From our perspective the ‘economy’ lives
where the consumer spends; everything else is merely the consequence of the
downstream flow of commerce from the initial consumer "demand." For
this reason the official GDP measurements poorly reflect what is happening in
the real-time economy, because they merely capture backward-looking factory
production levels far downstream, as augmented by governmental redistribution
of earlier tax collections and new public debt. Even John Maynard Keynes would
have had to admit that governmental stimulus has to ultimately cause increases
in aggregate consumer demand for a real recovery to be happening. We simply
aren’t seeing that yet. What is around the bend as we navigate the economic
landscape? A double dip on our economic trail. Thanks to Rick Davis and the
Consumer Metrics Institute for his fabulous work.’
european central banks intervened to shore up
the ever more worthless euro, buying into that fraudulent wall street b*** s***
story that that ‘s a good thing, rallying stocks off their lows. It is amazing
how dumb europe has become so quickly. An exception is what I believe was
Germany’s steps against derivatives, which market according to a derivatives
trader on the radio this day is a $40 trillion market (missed his name). To
reiterate as applicable to yet another fraudulent scheme previously stated,
said market is paper on paper moving around and generating commissions at
lightning computerized speed but adding no real value in real economic terms;
again, the analogy of termites eating away at the (nation’s) foundation is
apposite. As such, that money has to come from some real place and hence, the
ever more frequent and larger crashes we are seeing. Don’t forget that the
worthless paper from previous such fraudulent schemes now marked to anything is
still out there in a magnitude some have placed in the hundreds of trillions.
The
Worst Money Supply Plunge Since The Depression Means A Double Dip Is Now A
‘Virtual Certainty’ The stock of
U.S. money as measured by ‘M3′ money supply fell to $13.9 trillion from
$14.2 trillion during the three months ending in April. [ This is still an extraordinarily high level but … I don’t
buy it. I believe the printing presses have been working overtime to pump out
ever more worthless fiat currency and with the many trillions of worthless
fraudulent paper still out there and marked to anything. I further believe the
same is being surreptitiously used to supplant the fraudulent paper, the
consequences of which will be devastating, of course, as is invariably so in
depressions in any event. This scenario would also mean huge fraud accomplis. ] Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level The bankster operative who helped destroy
Glass-Steagall is back. Larry Summers, Obama’s top economic adviser, has told
Congress to “grit its teeth” and approve a fresh fiscal boost of $200 billion
to keep growth on track, reports the Daily Telegraph. Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level Kurt Nimmo | The Federal Reserve
stopped publishing M3 figures back in 2006.
The frauds on wall street et als should be
criminally prosecuted, jailed, and disgorgement imposed. If that were so, they
wouldn’t be worrying about who wins / loses since those who fraudulently play,
invariably would (and should) pay. If
they’re not prosecuted, everyone loses.
POST MORTEM AND REVIEW Ricky:
A post mortem is in order. The elements of this
worldwide con game are remarkably simple, not complex at all. Apparently you
only need a few things to make a mockery of the entire global economic system,
and big banks garnered these few important things through “regulatory capture”:
1) Unregulated, unenforced rules (particularly for
derivatives)
2) license to “mark to model” (assign your own values to your assets)
3) ability to peg present value to irrational expected future returns (based on
unlimited, exponential growth)
4) infinite leverage (no effective requirements for reserve capital in
unregulated “shadow” markets)
5) massive size, so that the bank is "too big to fail"
6) non-transparency and non-accountability.
SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY!
THE
FORECASTS:
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012
Russell Napier is the author of the book
“Anatomy of the Bear”, a professor at the Edinburgh Business School and a consultant
to CLSA Ltd. which is one of the top research houses in Asia. Napier’s research
indicates (and I paraphrase) that: The S&P 500 will Decline to 400 by 2014
(the Dow 30 to 3800)
The S&P 500 will then undergo a major crash that will see U.S. equity
prices bottom at almost 50% below current levels (i.e. to 400 or less; the Dow
30 to 3800 or less) sometime around 2014 as Tobin’s “q” drops to 0.3 signaling
the end of the bear market, as it has done at the end of the four largest U.S.
market declines in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982.
U.S. Treasury Sales Collapse Leading to End of U.S. Dollar as Reserve Currency
Robert R.
Prechter Jr. is
author of a number of newsletters and books including “Elliott Wave Principle”
(1978) in which he predicted the super bull market of the 1980s; “At the Crest
of the Tidal Wave – A Forecast of the Great Bear Market” (1995) in which he
predicted a slow motion economic earthquake, brought about by a great asset
mania, that would register 11 on the financial Richter scale causing a collapse
of historic proportions; and “Conquer the Crash: You can Survive and Prosper in
a Deflationary Depression” (2002) in which he described the economic cataclysm
that we are just beginning to experience and advised how to position one’s self
financially during that period of time.
Depression is Imminent
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to
below 777 which was the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and
quite likely drop below 400 at one or more times during the bear market.
According
to the Debt Clock:
•
Total national debt: $13 trillion
• Debt per citizen: $42,026
• Debt per taxpayer: $117,982
• Total interest due: $1.9 trillion
• Interest per citizen: $2,211
Click here to see the Debt
Clock, which is updated every second.
•
Total personal debt: $16.5 trillion
• Total mortgage debt: $14.1 trillion
• Total consumer debt: $2.45 trillion
• Personal debt per citizen: $53,483
• Debt held by foreign countries: $4.07
trillion
http://www.usdebtclock.org
Get Real Time U.S. Debt Data
Israel rejects new drive to ban nukes from Mideast The Associated Press -
JERUSALEM - Israel,
thought to be the Middle East's only nuclear power, has rejected a new UN call
to come clean about its secretive nuclear program, calling it a "deeply
flawed and hypocritical" act that ignores the threat posed by its sworn
enemy ... Diplomatic arm twisting breaks deadlock at nuclear NPT confab
Xinhua Israel rejects UN conference resolution on non-proliferation
CNN
Paul
Craig Roberts: Government Abandoned Vietnam POWs Kurt Nimmo | John McCain worked overtime to
make sure Vietnam POWs never came home. I think the even bigger story vis-ŕ-vis
mccain is: http://www.albertpeia.com/heroenot.htm ‘Did you know that that so-called
"american heroe" john mccain was referred to by his fellow pows in
Vietnam as something akin to the "songbird" inasmuch as he was
constantly "singing" to his Viet-Cong captors to curry favor and
better treatment? This has been documented with authority by Colonel David
Hackworth. The same violates military code/protocol (other soldiers have been
court-martialed for far less)
click Here, Here. [ http://www.albertpeia.com/hackworth.htm
] But, you see, this covered up
scenario, compromizing the false facade of far less than a heroe, is exactly
what a criminal (lie of a) nation as america loves and encourages (get
everyone's hands dirty so no-one dares to rectify same, ie., bush, sr.,
clinton, bush, jr.). That is, "toe the (corrupt, propagandized)
line", become a criminal, or be exposed, prosecuted, and/or ruined; and,
hasn't anyone asked how "wall street" has been "spared the
spotlight" (and even was accorded protective legislation from their
criminal culpability) and focus of inquiry, attention, and prosecution despite
being the primary beneficiaries financial and otherwise of these scams (you
know the wall street motto, "churn and earn"; huge conflicts of
interest if not outright fraud)…’
Coalition wants UK space lift-off [ Don’t make me laugh! ]
Israel’s
Nukes Out of the Shadows Israel
faces unprecedented pressure to abandon its official policy of “ambiguity” on
its possession of nuclear weapons as the international community meets at the
United Nations in New York this week to consider banning such arsenals from the
Middle East.
NASA wants mission to bring Martian rocks to Earth (AP) Why?
They already have that and more:
Launch
of secret US space ship masks even more secret launch of new weapon
http://www.albertpeia.com/UFOetryWeNeverWentToTheMoonPNTV.wmv
[To the Professor at the beginning of the course]
10-5-09
Postscript: Professor *****,
I felt compelled to thank you again for the add; not to curry your favor but
indeed to express profound thanks inasmuch as this is probably the last formal
course at a formal educational institution I'll ever take; and among the most
important. While I had bought at discount a library-discarded 1993 Anthropology
by Embers text, though meaning to read same never quite got to it. I am
astounded by the substantial amount of time involved in the evolutionary
process, not that I ever stopped to think about it, and one must come away with
the sense of 'and all that...for this?'. This course should be required
curriculum along with psychology, sociology, etc., but probably won't be owing
to what is, as it should be, a very humbling educational experience for any
member of the human race.
Regards,
Al Peia
Drudgereport: DREAD IN THE MED:
ISRAEL CONCERNED TURK NAVY WITH NEXT FLOTILLA
Japanese prime minister
intends to resign over U.S. Marine base... Developing...
Activists send new boat to
challenge blockade...
Irish ship latest to try and
breach embargo...
Thousands of Gazans rush for
Egyptian border...
Turkey Slams u.s. Response as
american war criminals they are ...
...Israeli gov't defends the
Indefensible because they’re war criminals
'Next time we'll use more
force'...
Ahmadinejad: 'israeli
commandos are wild dogs (yes, they they are mad dogs)'...
...wants Netanyahu to (and
netanayahu should) face trial
US consulate issues advisory
for Israel...
JERUSALEM POST News Feed...
Israel faces int'l fury over
flotilla...
Bloody raid...
Turkey warns of
'consequences'...
Israel in eye of storm...
Thousands protest, clashes in
Athens...
Paris: Demonstrators tried to
break into Israeli embassy...
Oil sheen confirmed
less than 10 miles from Florida beach... Developing...
Robots succeed, cut well
pipe; oil gushes into Gulf...
Gulf oil spill threat widens,
BP shares drop...
WHITE HOUSE: FLOW RATE OF
BP'S SPILL COULD INCREASE BY 20% DURING NEW
OPERATION...
'OIL COMING UP UNTIL
AUGUST'...
Israel recoils as USA wisely
backs UN move...
DAY 41: NO END IN
SIGHT...
U.S. Plans 'for
Worst' in Gulf...
Czech President:
Euro Zone has failed...
Feds Telling BP
'What to Do'...
Latest Attempt by
BP to Plug Oil Leak in Gulf of Mexico Fails...
BP now throwing GOLF BALLS
into the oil well...
Prepares Backup Plan...
Pelosi blames Bush admin...
Parish President: Obama
'Chewed Me Out'...
BP Buses In 400 Workers During Obama's Visit...
Maher: Obama Not Acting Like
A 'Real Black' President...
'mafia king cuomo' Mocked At
NY Convention...
Dow Average Ends Worst May
Since 1940... Brutal...
Credit rating cut
deals blow to Spain... Debt Burden...
WARS: US Prepares for Largest
Battle in Afghanistan...
PAPER: Israel to deploy
nuclear submarines in Persian Gulf...
Bankruptcy talk spreads among
California muni officials...
BP Resumes Effort to Seal Oil
Well After Daylong Halt...
Stops video of leaking pipe,
blames dirty lens...
Spill could be twice the
EXXON Valdez...
22-mile-long deep-sea plume
discovered...
Oil washes over 100 miles of
Louisiana coast...
Obama to Americans: Go to
beaches; most still open...
Landrieu: President will pay
political price...
Issa: Job offer scandal could
be Obama's 'Watergate'...
'Top Kill' Operations Start
in Attempt to Plug Leaking Gulf Oil...
Spill hits over 100 miles of
Louisiana coast...
[video] A Summer Of Slumping Stocks
CHINA WISELY SHOULD
SHIELD NKOREA
NKorea bracing, severing all
ties with South....
New Chinese aggression..
Israel drill raises
tensions...
CBSNEWS POLL: Americans
Pessimistic, Dissatisfied with Washington...
MOODY'S: Debt Level, Spending
Pose Risk to America's Aaa Credit Rating...
Another Vacation? Obama
schedules second since oil spill...
Withdrew to Grove Park Inn
& Spa as flow began to grow...
BUT makes time to host
fundraiser for Boxer...
FINALLY: Bows to
pressure: Will visit Gulf Coast during vacation...
BUT
Will skip Memorial Day ceremony at Arlington Nat'l Cemetery... ONLY to return
for Paul McCartney concert!
SYRIA: Obama has failed in
peace efforts; Lost influence in Mideast...
RASMUSSEN: OBAMA APPROVAL
DROPS TO 44%...
Dem Freshmen Run Away...
63% Now Favor Repeal of
HealthCare Law...
READY FOR NEW ‘GULF
OF TONKIN’ / WAR...
US plans naval exercises with
SKorea...
Gold Rising; Speculators
buying faster than producers can mine...
US Plays Down European Crisis but China Worried...
Immelt: European economy
'teetering'...
wobama’s
wet dream with new jive of New “International Order” despite nation’s defacto
bankruptcy and policies that have left allies defacto bankrupt as well in jive
session At West Point Uses teleprompters... Tepid
applause from cadets: Cuts 'That's a lot of cheering' line from prepared
remarks …Sestak confirms WH job offer
to get out of Senate race … to save specter whose specter is no more in those
hallowed halls he sullied as less than inspector specter from JFK
assassination, to financial assassination of the nation, etc. ...
...
Anger mounts as oil blackens
Louisiana coast...
GOP takes House
seat in Obama's Hawaiian home district..
Crisis Imperils Benefits Long
Expected by Europeans...
Britain faces aggressive cuts
in 'age of austerity' having leapt like lemmings into american oblivion ...
France poised to raise
retirement age...
Fiscal crises threaten
Europe's generous benefits...
SPAIN SEIZES SAVINGS BANK IN
RESCUE BID AS TALKS FAIL...
Public beach in Louisiana
closed as oil washes up...
Mass layoffs spike led by
manufacturing...
Report: CA borrowed $7
billion from feds to pay jobless benefits...
Nine NY workers retired with
$100k+ pensions -- in their 30s...
Stocks Drop Most in a Year on
Economic Reports, European Debt Crisis...
Roubini: Stocks to Tumble
Another 20%, Cash the Safest Place...
Strains Accumulate...
Fed official: Europe's crisis
poses risks to USA...
Confusion over regulation
moves trigger sell-offs...
Unemployment spike largest in
3 months...
German Finance Minister:
Markets Out of Control...
Greeks strikers march on
parliament against cuts...
Rand Paul wins KY Senate
race…Specter loses...
Grim
milestone: 1,000 Americans dead...
DEMSASTER:
SENATE CANDIDATE 'LIED' ABOUT SERVING IN VIETNAM
DOW
AT SAME LEVEL IT WAS -- 10 YEARS AGO!
Bankruptcies
resume upward path...
Mortgage delinquencies,
foreclosures break records...
State pensions becoming
federal issue; Bail-out cost potentially more than $1T...
Greece May Take
Legal Steps Against U.S. Banks for Crisis...
Euro Breakup Concerns Grow...
Germans lose faith...
Merkel: Rescue package 'just
buys time'...
Roubini
Says Greece 'Tip of Iceberg' as Sovereign Debt Threatens Recovery...
Geithner:
'I Never Had A Real Job'… sounds like a plan!...
Tent
City In New York Set Up In Hopes For Elevator Job... camped
out for 3 days for chance at getting an application
NATIONAL
ENQUIRER CLAIMS OBAMA CHEATING SCANDAL...
'Hotel
security video could topple Obama's presidency'...
GOLDMAN
BOSS VISITED WHITE HOUSE AT LEAST 4 TIMES...
GOLDMAN
SACHS CEO endorses Dem Banking Bill: 'Wall Street will
benefit'...
GREECE
CUT TO JUNK... Doubts intensify...
Spreads to Portugal...
Stephen Hawking: Aliens exist but don't talk to them -- it's too
dangerous … might not like us… Oh pshaw! … Human nature, man’s inhumanity to
man? … Such humble beginnings and evolutionary history … What’s not to
like? … Besides, not to worry. With their advanced technologies that defy
human understanding, the aliens already know you’re here … to stay. So, not to
worry. After all, as we know from that documentary of that same name, ‘Earth
Girls Are Easy’ … and then there’s photosynthesis on earth in a very big way
also going for it! ...
Seeing
Aliens Will Likely Take Centuries. Centuries? Not goin’ to happen; at best,
decades.
european
central banks intervened to shore up the ever more worthless euro, buying into
that fraudulent wall street b*** s*** story that that ‘s a good thing, rallying
stocks off their lows. It is amazing how dumb europe has become so quickly. An
exception is what I believe was Germany’s steps against derivatives, which
market according to a derivatives trader on the radio this day is a $40
trillion market (missed his name). To reiterate as applicable to yet another
fraudulent scheme previously stated, said market is paper on paper moving
around and generating commissions at lightning computerized speed but adding no
real value in real economic terms; again, the analogy of termites eating away
at the (nation’s) foundation is apposite. As such, that money has to come from
some real place and hence, the ever more frequent and larger crashes we are
seeing. Don’t forget that the worthless paper from previous such fraudulent
schemes now marked to anything is still out there in a magnitude some have
placed in the hundreds of trillions.
Bank Failures: The U.S. Economic Contagion Euro slips after Germany's president resigns Clearly, to
kohler’s credit, he must have realized how stupid his remarks in support of the
Afghanistan misadventure were. Warning
Signs Of Full Spectrum Collapse Are Everywhere Giordano Bruno | All eyes have been focused on
the Greek situation for the past month, but we cannot let this one storm of the
financial crisis distract us from the other threats that lie just beyond the
horizon.
Gold To $10,000? Peter Schiff thinks that is a real
possibility — see page 45 of the current BusinessWeek. There is no doubt that
when benchmarked against the CPI, money supply and GDP, gold can easily double
from here. Another
Blatant EUR Intervention Leads To 150 pip EURUSD Move In Seconds With all the grace of a drunk Keynesian at an
Austrian economists meeting, the Central Banks once again kill the EUR shorts
and intervene to prop it up, for a ridiculous 250 pips intraday move. Europe’s
Coming Summer Of Discontent The
summer of 2010 promises to be the most tumultuous summer in the short history
of the European Union. The sovereign debt crisis sweeping the continent
threatens to cause economic and political instability on a scale not seen in
Europe for decades.
Stocks Fall in a Sinkhole: Dave s Daily (at TheStreet.com) ECB
warns of more bank loan losses (Reuters) CitiFinancial
to close 330 branches, 3 in Mo. (at bizjournals.com)
Personal Income, Spending Released: The Future Will Be Getting
Worse
John Brown: Now, uncertainty has
returned with a vengeance and the stock market has booked its first official
10% correction since this tenuous 'bull' market began in the spring of 2009. In
recent days, markets have shown signs of life - but nascent rallies have been
quickly smothered. I believe there are five fundamental reasons for this
persistent uncertainty.
1) First, the
world's second most held currency, the euro, is threatened with possible
extinction. The massive $750 billion bailout package for Greece will not cure
Greece's dependence on entitlements, and will likely only buy time until a debt
restructuring. The world is looking to major nations such as the United States,
Germany, and even the United Kingdom to backstop the likely future funding
obligations of bankrupt states such as Spain, Portugal, and Italy. However,
these so-called 'major' nations have little or no money; they themselves have
borrowed massively. The only real savior available for the euro is China. So,
you can imagine the feeling in Brussels when the Financial Times reported this
week that the Chinese government is "reviewing" its euro holdings in
light of the spreading debt crisis. It is now dawning on investors that the
euro may be down for the count. As a result, key support levels for the
currency are giving way.
2) Second,
there is deep concern among investors that a lurching socialism may change
Western economies fundamentally. Just this week, it was announced that the
percentage of US personal income coming from private sector earnings hit an
all-time low... just 41%! As a corollary, the percentage of income coming from
direct government payments has risen sharply in recent years and is now at an
all-time high. To support the growing welfare state, taxes on society's
dwindling producers must increase. This is no way to grow an economy - and
investors know it.
3) Third,
rates at which banks and finance houses lend to each other are rising. Although
central banks continue to hold short term rates low, stoking ever more consumer
borrowing and spending, businesses are increasingly starved for credit.
4) Fourth
…The machinations of the financial sector are almost universally blamed for the
economic crisis, whether on CNN or C-SPAN. The politicians 'investigating' the
'greed' of Wall Street appear to be motivated more by revenge than risk
reduction. With unabashed distortion of the facts, politicians forget that it
was Congress that repealed the Glass Steagall Act (a set of regulations made
necessary by government deposit insurance), pushed mortgage lenders Freddie Mac
and Fannie May to lower their loan requirements, and approved entitlement programs
that have sapped productivity from the American economy. They forget that it
was the Federal Reserve that injected trillions of monopoly dollars into the
world economy to rescue Washington from the last recession it created. These
massive strategic errors were the direct fault of the US and other Western
governments …
5) The fifth
factor spooking markets is Germany's reaction to the euro crisis. The
government unexpectedly resorted to the same 'protective' regulations employed
by the US in 2008, including banning naked short sales of the securities of
select financial houses. In America, this type of measure fanned widespread
suspicion that the government was worried about the prospects of the firms it
selected for special protection. Many German banks have major exposure to
Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain (a.k.a. the PIGS). It is not surprising that
the German government has tried to shield them from market punishment, but the
measure is likely to backfire…
Devices turn cellphones into credit card processors
Israeli
convoy attack viewed critically by Russia A military action against a controversial aid convoy heading to
the Gaza Strip that left 10 dead was “unjustified,” a Russian official told the
Interfax news agency Monday. Israel
Attacks Unarmed Americans in International Waters The most outrageous
possible scenario is unfolding off the coast of Gaza, where humanitarian peace
activists including several U.S. doctors have been attacked in a deadly
confrontation with Israeli forces. US
singles out Israel, calling for its membership in nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty Washington’s unprecedented
backing for a UN resolution for a nuclear-free Middle East that singles out
Israel has both angered and deeply worried the Jewish state although officials
are cagey about openly criticising their biggest ally.
american sports hero and cage fighter 'rips
out still-beating heart of training partner'... A U.S. cage fighter ripped out the heart of his
training partner while he was still alive after becoming convinced he was
possessed by the devil, it was alleged today. Jarrod Wyatt also cut out Taylor
Powell's tongue and ripped off most of his face in a brutal assault that police
said looked like a scene from a horror film, officers said. They claim they
found the 26-year-old standing naked over his friend's body with parts,
including an eyeball, strewn around the blood splattered room in Klamath,
California …
Israeli ships stalk pro-Palestinian aid flotilla (AP) Hamas renews offer to end fight if Israel withdraws (Reuters) Israel
rejects call to join anti-nuclear treaty PAPER:
Israel to deploy nuclear submarines in Persian Gulf... Israel
recoils as USA wisely backs UN move...
New records show some lobbyists are top fundraisers for
political c...
In 1948, U.S. Secretary of
Defense James Forrestal, an opponent of the creation of a Jewish state in
Palestine, warned that, even though failure to go along with the Zionists might
cost President Truman the states of New York, Pennsylvania, and California, it
was about time that somebody should pay some consideration to whether we might
not lose the United States. Mr. Forrestal was absolutely correct! Isn’t that
exactly what’s happened to defacto bankrupt america in intractable
decline.
TIME
TO REVOKE AND NULLIFY THE BALFOUR DECLARATION AND ABROGATE THE CREATION OF THE
NATION STATE OF ISRAEL IN THE INTERESTS OF FAIRNESS, JUSTICE, PEACE AND
PROSPECTIVE PROSPERITY FOR THIS WORLD!
OOOOH!
ISRAEL NOW IN FAVOR OF NUKES IN THE MIDDLE EAST IN SUDDEN SHIFT IN POLICY TO FAVOR IRAN IN A VERY BIG WAY!
ISRAEL SEES THE LIGHT AND SIDES WITH IRAN ON NUCLEAR ISSUE; ESSENTIALLY SAYS TO
THE WORLD AND IRAN ‘TO PRESS ON WITH NUCLEAR AMBITIONS’.
Israel rejects new drive to ban nukes from Mideast The Associated Press -
JERUSALEM - Israel,
thought to be the Middle East's only nuclear power, has rejected a new UN call
to come clean about its secretive nuclear program, calling it a "deeply
flawed and hypocritical" act that ignores the threat posed by its sworn
enemy ... Diplomatic arm twisting breaks deadlock at nuclear NPT confab
Xinhua Israel rejects UN conference resolution on non-proliferation
CNN
Nuke-free Mideast The call by the United Nations
for a Mideast free of nuclear weapons offers yet again a new opportunity to
bring Israel into the nonproliferation treaty process while also stopping Iran
or any other regional power from acquiring a nuclear arsenal. The Israelis of
course have denounced the decision by some 200 member signatories of the
Nuclear NonProliferation Treaty (NPT), saying it is discriminatory because it
singles them out … israel plays the jew card! … You can’t make this stuff up!
How totally, but typically israeli, preposterous.
Regulators shut 5 banks as 2010 tally hits 78 3 Fla. banks, 1 each in Nev., Calif. shut down (AP) FDIC: Failed
Bank List http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html
Sell in May and Go Away, Indeed [ I wasn’t kidding; and, I’m still not kidding when I say: This is a great opportunity to sell / take
profits because there’s much worse to come! ]
This is a global
depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. This was a
manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a
typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great
regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into.
This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud
as in prior crashes.
The
Worst Money Supply Plunge Since The Depression Means A Double Dip Is Now A
‘Virtual Certainty’ The stock of
U.S. money as measured by ‘M3′ money supply fell to $13.9 trillion from
$14.2 trillion during the three months ending in April. [ This is still an extraordinarily high level but … I don’t
buy it. I believe the printing presses have been working overtime to pump out
ever more worthless fiat currency and with the many trillions of worthless
fraudulent paper still out there and marked to anything. I further believe the
same is being surreptitiously used to supplant the fraudulent paper, the
consequences of which will be devastating, of course, as is invariably so in
depressions in any event. This scenario would also mean huge fraud accomplis. ] Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level The bankster operative who helped destroy
Glass-Steagall is back. Larry Summers, Obama’s top economic adviser, has told
Congress to “grit its teeth” and approve a fresh fiscal boost of $200 billion
to keep growth on track, reports the Daily Telegraph. Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level Kurt Nimmo |
The Federal Reserve stopped publishing M3 figures back in 2006.
Europe:
A Continent Of Lies And Broken Promises; How The EU Elite Got It Wrong On The
Euro Openeurope.org.uk has put
together a paper of the most blatant half-truths, propaganda, and outright
lies, abused by Europe not only over the past month, but also over the past 10
years, for the entire duration of the now rapidly collapsing eurozone
experiment. One
Out Of Every Ten U.S. Banks Is Now On The FDIC’s Problem List – Do You Know If
Your Bank Is Safe? Do you know if
your bank will be there next month? For a growing number of Americans, that is
becoming a very real question. “Civil Rights” and Total
War William Norman Grigg | The chief accomplishment of the civil rights
movement was not the validation of the individual rights of those victimized by
government-imposed discrimination, but rather the validation and enhancement of
federal power. US
acknowledges mistaken attack on Afghan civilians The US military acknowledged today killing 23 civilians and
wounding 12 others earlier this year after mistaking them for a convoy of
Taliban insurgents. Too Many Wars Waged The “War on Drugs,” like the “War on Terror,”
ends up being an undertaking with no definable victory in sight. No matter how
vigorously the federal government prosecutes its “war” on drugs, people will still
use drugs. Third
Giant Underwater Oil Plume Discovered Today, the Washington Post is reporting that a third giant
underwater plume has been discovered.
According to the Debt Clock:
• Total national debt: $13 trillion
• Debt per citizen: $42,026
• Debt per taxpayer: $117,982
• Total interest due: $1.9 trillion
• Interest per citizen: $2,211
Click here to see the Debt Clock, which is updated every
second.
• Total personal debt: $16.5 trillion
• Total mortgage debt: $14.1 trillion
• Total consumer debt: $2.45 trillion
• Personal debt per citizen: $53,483
• Debt held by foreign countries: $4.07
trillion
http://www.usdebtclock.org
Get Real Time U.S. Debt Data
COMMENTS
·
NoMoBaama Says: June 1st, 2010 at 9:19 am
I wish I could say that we have since learned since our days of support for
moron, satanist dictators like this, but the blind acceptance of neocons like
Palin, Romney and even the media darling Mike Huckster make me think otherwise.
Anyone who touches the label of “Christian” seems to get a pass to use the war
card for some really idiotic reasons. Recall, GW Bush did that also. Of course,
“Christians” never discussed Bush’s nightly visits to the White House by a male
prostitute, even though it was pretty obvious. I am sure they would also agree
that war is good for the economy, makes your 401K rise, that is, until you get
nuked and your your country is smoldering rubble. Then the economy seems less
important. “Christians” out there need to recall what Christ taught about war,
and decide who you are really following when you advocate it.
·
Dilbert McGunnut Says: June 1st, 2010 at 5:24 am
Bush must have read “Econ 101 for Warmongers and Dummies”. The whole 9/11, Iraq
invasion, Pipelanistan invasion is all based on lies, lies, lies and hopefully
WE the People are FINALLY waking up. Bush et al should be treated as war
criminals.
·
STARMAN Reply:June 1st, 2010 at 5:46 am THE BUSH
STRATEGY MUST HAVE WORKED ,,,, WERE SUCH A STRONG ECONOMY NOW .
·
Vic Says: June 1st, 2010 at 6:10 am
Nice to see some people are awake and do not fall in this propaganda of war economics.
This is a sign of degradation when a world must rely on destruction to create
economy.But as long as they recrute soldiers, this will not change. When the
good men and women start deserrting massivelly the military on this planet,
things will start to change rapidly.Without soldiers the thugs war lords will
have to fight their own fights and this we all know they are cowards when
isolated.Being courageous has nothing to do with having a weapon our hands.
Courage goes a long way above this coward manifestation of power trip.One day
humanity will wake up massivelly might not be in our time of life but they will
eventually create Peace and get rid of evil.May peace and Love guide our world.
·
Billo Says: June 1st, 2010 at 6:49 am
George W. Bush: ‘Starting Wars In Middle East Good For The Economy’ Now look at
the economy 10 years after the Neo-con Zionists fiasco. We are financially
ruined, just the way they wanted us to be and they the “perps” made out like
bandits.
·
line_doggie Says: June 1st, 2010 at 7:19 am
Bush was simply continuing the agenda followed by his predeecessors, and the
current President is continuing.
·
will hale Reply:June 1st, 2010 at 2:55 pm agreed!
·
THE LAST STAND Reply:June 1st, 2010 at 6:50 pm agreed!
·
Tom Reply:June 1st, 2010 at 7:23 pm Agreed!
US
manufacturing growth rate ’slowed in May’ BBC | The US
manufacturing sector expanded for its 10th consecutive month in May, but at a
much slower rate, a survey says. Home
Owners Stop Paying Mortgages The New York Times | More than 650,000 households had not paid in 18
months Warning
Signs Of Full Spectrum Collapse Are Everywhere Giordano Bruno | All
eyes have been focused on the Greek situation for the past month, but we cannot
let this one storm of the financial crisis distract us from the other threats
that lie just beyond the horizon.
The frauds on wall street et als should be
criminally prosecuted, jailed, and disgorgement imposed. If that were so, they
wouldn’t be worrying about who wins / loses since those who fraudulently play,
invariably would (and should) pay. If
they’re not prosecuted, everyone loses.
POST MORTEM AND REVIEW Ricky:
A post mortem is in order. The elements of this
worldwide con game are remarkably simple, not complex at all. Apparently you
only need a few things to make a mockery of the entire global economic system,
and big banks garnered these few important things through “regulatory capture”:
1) Unregulated, unenforced rules (particularly for
derivatives)
2) license to “mark to model” (assign your own values to your assets)
3) ability to peg present value to irrational expected future returns (based on
unlimited, exponential growth)
4) infinite leverage (no effective requirements for reserve capital in
unregulated “shadow” markets)
5) massive size, so that the bank is "too big to fail"
6) non-transparency and non-accountability.
SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY!
THE
FORECASTS:
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012
Russell Napier is the author of the book
“Anatomy of the Bear”, a professor at the Edinburgh Business School and a consultant
to CLSA Ltd. which is one of the top research houses in Asia. Napier’s research
indicates (and I paraphrase) that: The S&P 500 will Decline to 400 by 2014
(the Dow 30 to 3800)
The S&P 500 will then undergo a major crash that will see U.S. equity prices
bottom at almost 50% below current levels (i.e. to 400 or less; the Dow 30 to
3800 or less) sometime around 2014 as Tobin’s “q” drops to 0.3 signaling the
end of the bear market, as it has done at the end of the four largest U.S.
market declines in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982.
U.S. Treasury Sales Collapse Leading to End of U.S. Dollar as Reserve Currency
Robert R.
Prechter Jr. is
author of a number of newsletters and books including “Elliott Wave Principle”
(1978) in which he predicted the super bull market of the 1980s; “At the Crest
of the Tidal Wave – A Forecast of the Great Bear Market” (1995) in which he
predicted a slow motion economic earthquake, brought about by a great asset
mania, that would register 11 on the financial Richter scale causing a collapse
of historic proportions; and “Conquer the Crash: You can Survive and Prosper in
a Deflationary Depression” (2002) in which he described the economic cataclysm
that we are just beginning to experience and advised how to position one’s self
financially during that period of time.
Depression is Imminent
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to
below 777 which was the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and
quite likely drop below 400 at one or more times during the bear market.
In 1948, U.S. Secretary of Defense James Forrestal, an opponent of
the creation of a Jewish state in Palestine, warned that, even though failure
to go along with the Zionists might cost President Truman the states of New
York, Pennsylvania, and California, it was about time that somebody should pay
some consideration to whether we might not lose the United States. Mr.
Forrestal was absolutely correct! Isn’t that exactly what’s happened to defacto
bankrupt america in intractable decline.
FOR THOSE WHO WANT TO SACRIFICE AMERICAN LIVES, RESOURCES, PEACE, AND
PROSPERITY FOR ISRAEL, THE MESSAGE IN VERY STRONG TERMS SHOULD BE ‘MOVE TO
ISRAEL’:
Lest We Forget This is #33 in AMEU's Public Affairs Series Americans for Middle
East Understanding March, 2006 Many of the events catalogued here have been
treated in depth in AMEU's bimonthly publication, The Link. website:
www.ameu.org . Lest We Forget The Israeli lobby in Washington has successfully
influenced the U.S. Congress to give billions of non- -repayable dollars each
year to Israel on the premise that Israel's loyalty and strategic importance to
the United States make it an ally worthy of such unprecedented consideration.
Is it ? In his Farewell Address, George Washington warned Americans to avoid a
passionate attachment to any one nation because it promotes "the illusion
of an imaginary common interest in cases where no real common interest
exists." In 1948, U.S. Secretary of Defense James Forrestal, an opponent of
the creation of a Jewish state in Palestine, warned that, even though failure
to go along with the Zionists might cost President Truman the states of New
York, Pennsylvania, and California, it was about time that somebody should pay
some consideration to whether we might not lose the United States. Israeli
actions over the past 53 years involving U.S. interests in the Middle East
seriously challenge the "strategic asset" premise of the Israeli
lobby. Some of these actions are compiled in the list that follows:
September 1953: Israel illegally begins to divert the waters of the
Jordan River. President Eisenhower, enraged, suspends all economic aid to
Israel and prepares to remove the taxdeductible status of the United Jewish
Appeal and of other Zionist organizations in the United States.
October 1953: Israel raids the
West Bank village of Kibya, killing 53 Palestinian civilians. The Eisenhower
administration calls the raid "shocking," and confirms the suspension
of aid to Israel. July 1954: Israeli agents firebomb American and British
cultural centers in Egypt, making it look like the work of the Egyptian Muslim
Brotherhood in order to sabotage U.S.- -Egyptian relations.
October 1956: Israel
secretly joins with England and France in a colonial-style attack on Egypt's
Suez Canal. Calling the invasion a dangerous threat to international order, President Eisenhower forces Israel to relinquish most of
the land it had seized. 1965: 206 pounds of weapons grade uranium disappear from
the Nuclear Materials and Equipment Corporation plant in Pennsylvania. Plant
president is Zalmon Shapiro, a former sales agent for the Israel Defense
Ministry. C.I.A. Director Richard Helms later charges that Israel stole the
uranium.
June 1967: Israel bombs, napalms and torpedoes the USS Liberty, killing 34
Americans, wounding 171 others, and nearly sinking the lightly armed
intelligence ship. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Thomas
Moorer, charges that the attack "could not possibly have been a case of
mistaken identity." June 1967: Against U.S. wishes Israel seizes and
occupies Syria's Golan Heights. June 1968: Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir
rejects U.S. Secretary of State William Rogers Peace Plan that would have
required Israel to withdraw from the occupied territories; she calls upon Jews
everywhere to denounce the plan.
March 1978: Israel invades
Lebanon, illegally using U.S. cluster bombs and other U.S. weapons given to
Israel for defensive purposes only. 1979: Israel frustrates U.S.-sponsored Camp David Accords by
building new settlements on the West Bank. President Carter complains to
American Jewish leaders that, by acting in a "completely irresponsible
way," Israel's Prime Minister Begin continues "to disavow the basic
principles of the accords." 1979: Israel sells U.S. airplane tires and other military
supplies to Iran, against U.S. policy, at a time when U.S. diplomats are being
held hostage in Teheran. July
1980: Israel annexes East
Jerusalem in defiance of U.S. wishes and world opinion. July 1981:
Illegally using U.S. cluster bombs and other equipment, Israel bombs P.L.O.
sites in Beirut, with great loss of civilian life. December 1981:
Israel annexes Syria's Golan Heights, in violation of the Geneva Convention and
in defiance of U.S. wishes. June
1982: Israel invades Lebanon a
second time, again using U.S. cluster bombs and other U.S. weapons. President
Reagan calls for a halt of all shipments of cluster bomb shells to Israel. September 1982:
Abetted by Israeli forces under the control of Defense Minister Ariel Sharon,
Lebanese militiamen massacre hundreds of Palestinians in Beirut's Sabra and
Shatila refugee camps. President Reagan is horrified and summons the Israeli
ambassador to demand Israel's immediate withdrawal from Beirut. September 1982:
Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin rejects President Reagan's Peace Plan for
the occupied territories. January-March 1983: Israeli army "harasses" U.S. Marines in
Lebanon. Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger confirms Marine commandant's
report that "Israeli troops are deliberately threatening the lives of
American military personnel . . . replete with verbal degradation of the
officers, their uniforms and country." March 1985:
Israeli lobby in Washington pressures the U.S. Congress to turn down a $1.6
billion arms sale to Jordan, costing the U.S. thousands of jobs, quite apart
from the financial loss to American industry. Jordan gives the contract to
Russia. A frustrated King Hussein complains: "The U.S. is not free to move
except within the limits of what AIPAC [the Israeli lobby], the Zionists and
the State of Israel determine for it." October 1985:
Israeli lobby blocks $4 billion aircraft sale to Saudi Arabia. The sale,
strongly backed by the Reagan administration, costs the U.S. over 350,000 jobs,
with steep financial losses to American industry. Saudi Arabia awards contract
to England.
November 1985: Jonathan Jay
Pollard, an American recruited by Israel, is arrested for passing highly
classified intelligence to Israel. U.S. officials call the operation but
"one link in an organized and well-financed Israeli espionage ring
operating within the United States." State Department contacts reveal that
top Israeli defense officials "traded stolen U.S. intelligence documents
to Soviet military intelligence agents in return for assurances of greater
emigration of Soviet Jews." December 1985: U.S. Customs in three states
raid factories suspected of illegally selling electroplating technology to
Israel. Richard Smyth, a NATO consultant and former U.S. exporter, is indicted
on charges of illegally exporting to Israel 800 krytron devices for triggering
nuclear explosions. April 1986: U.S. authorities arrest 17 persons, including a
retired Israeli General, Avraham Bar-Am, for plotting to sell more than $2
billion of advanced U.S. weaponry to Iran (much of it already in Israel).
General Bar-Am, claiming to have had Israeli Government approval, threatens to
name names at the highest levels. U.S. Attorney General of New York calls the
plot mind-boggling in scope. July 1986: Assistant Secretary of State Richard
Murphy informs the Israeli ambassador that a U.S. investigation is under way of
eight Israeli representatives in the U.S. accused of plotting the illegal
export of technology used in making cluster bombs. Indictments against the
eight are later dropped in exchange for an Israeli promise to cooperate in the
case. January 1987: Israeli
Defense Minister Yitzhak Rabin visits South Africa to discuss joint nuclear
weapons testing. Israel admits that, in violation of a U.S. Senate
anti-apartheid bill, it has arms sales contracts with South Africa worth
hundreds of millions of dollars. Rep. John Conyers calls for Congressional
hearings on Israel-South Africa nuclear testing. November 1987:
The Iran-Contra scandal reveals that it was Israel that had first proposed the
trade to Iran of U.S. arms for hostages. The scandal becomes the subject of the
Tower Commission Report, Senate and House investigations, and the Walsh
criminal prosecution inquiries. April
1988: Testifying before U.S.
Subcommittee on Narcotics, Terrorism and International Operations, Jose
Blandon, a former intelligence aide to Panama's General Noriega, reveals that
Israel used $20 million of U.S. aid to ship arms via Panama to Nicaraguan
Contras. The empty planes then smuggled cocaine via Panama into the United
States. Pilot tells ABC reporter Richard Threlkeld that Israel was his primary
employer. The arms-for-drugs network is said to be led by Mike Harari,
Noriega's close aide and bodyguard, who was also a high officer in the Israeli
secret services and chief coordinator of Israel's military and commercial
business in Panama. June 1988: Mubarak Awad, a Palestinian-American advocate of
nonviolence, is deported by Israel. The White House denounces the action,
saying, "We think it is unjustifiable to deny Mr. Awad the right to stay
and live in Jerusalem, where he was born." June 1988:
Amnesty International accuses Israel of throwing deadly, U.S.-made gas
canisters inside hospitals, mosques, and private homes. The Pennsylvania
manufacturer, a major defense corporation, suspends future shipments of tear
gas to Israel. November 1989: According to the Israeli paper Ma’ariv, U.S. officials
claim Israel Aircraft Industries was involved in attempts to smuggle U.S.
missile navigation equipment to South Africa in violation of U.S. law. December 1989:
While the U.S. was imposing economic sanctions on Iran, Israel purchased $36
million of Iranian oil in order to encourage Iran to help free three Israeli
hostages in Lebanon. March 1990: Israel requests more than $1 billion in loans, gifts, and
donations from American Jews and U.S. government to pay for resettling Soviet
Jews in occupied territories. President Bush responds, My position is that the
foreign policy of the U.S. says we do not believe there should be new
settlements in the West Bank or East Jerusalem. June 1990:
Officials in the Bush administration and in Congress say that Israel has
emerged as leading supplier of advanced military technology to China, despite
U.S.'s expressed opposition to Israeli-Chinese military cooperation. September 1990:
Israeli Foreign Minister David Levy asks the Bush administration to forgive
Israel's $4.5 billion military debt and dramatically increase military aid.
Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Arens expresses concern over expected $20
billion in U.S. arms sales to Saudi Arabia and asks for an additional $1
billion in military aid to Israel. Facing rising congressional opposition,
White House backs off from plan to sell Saudi Arabia over $20 billion in
military hardware. Bush administration promises to deliver additional F-15
fighters and Patriot missiles to Israel, but defers action on Israel's request
for more than $1 billion in new military aid. Arens questions U.S.'s commitment
to maintain Israel's military advantage in the Middle East. October 1990:
Aliya cabinet chair Ariel Sharon encourages increase in settlement of Soviet
Jews in East Jerusalem, despite his government's assurances to the U.S. that it
would not do so. Bush sends personal letter to Prime Minister Shamir urging
Israel not to pursue East Jerusalem housing. Shamir rejects appeal. November 1990:
In his new autobiography, former President Reagan says Israel was the
instigator and prime mover in the Iran-Contra affair and that then-Prime
Minister Shimon Peres was behind the proposal. January 1991: White House
criticizes Israeli ambassador Zalman Shoval for complaining that U.S. had not
moved forward on $400 million in loan guarantees and that Israel had not
received one cent in aid from allies to compensate for missile damage (in Gulf
War). U.S. says comments are outrageous and outside the bounds of acceptable
behavior. February 1991: Hours after long-disputed $400 million loan guarantees to
Israel are approved, Israeli officials say the amount is grossly insufficient.
Next day, Israel formally requests $1 billion in emergency military assistance
to cover costs stemming from the Gulf War. March 1991: Israeli government
rejects President Bush's call for solution to Arab-Israeli conflict that
includes trading land for peace. In a report to Congress, U.S. State Department
says Soviet Jewish immigrants are settling in the occupied territories at a
higher rate than the Israeli government claims. During tour of West Bank
settlements, Housing Minister Sharon says construction of 13,000 housing units
in occupied territories has been approved for next two years. Plans contradict
statement by Prime Minister Shamir, who told President Bush that the Israeli
government had not approved such plans. April 1991: Prime Minister Shamir and
several members of his cabinet reject U.S. Secretary of State Baker's
suggestion that Israel curtail expansion of Jewish settlements in the occupied
territories as gesture for peace. U.S. calls new Jewish settlement of Revava an
obstacle to peace and questions Israel's timing, with Secretary Baker due to
arrive in Israel in two days. Hours before Baker arrives, eight Israeli
families complete move to new settlement of Talmon Bet. U.S. ambassador to
Israel William Brown files an official protest with the Israeli government
about establishment and/or expansion of settlements in the West Bank. Housing
Minister Sharon says Israel has no intention of meeting U.S. demands to slow or
stop settlements. Secretary Baker, in a news conference before leaving Israel,
says Israel failed to give responses he needed to put together a peace
conference. May 1991: Israeli ambassador to U.S. Zalman Shoval says his country
will soon request $10 billion in loan guarantees from Washington to aid in
settling Soviet Jewish immigrants to Israel. Secretary Baker calls continued
building of Israeli settlements ?largest obstacle? to convening proposed Middle
East peace conference. May 1991: President Bush unveils proposal for arms control in
Middle East. U.S. administration confirms that Israel, which has not signed the
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, has objected to provision on nuclear weapons.
June 1991: Prime Minister Shamir rejects President Bush's call for
Israeli acceptance of a greater United Nations role in proposed Arab-Israeli
peace talks. July 1991: Israeli Housing Minister Sharon inaugurates the new
Israeli settlement of Mevo Dotan in the West Bank one day after President Bush
describes Israeli settlements as counterproductive. September 1991:
President Bush asks Congress to delay considering Israeli loan guarantee
request for 120 days. Ignoring pleas of U.S. administration, Israel formally
submits its request. Prime Minister Shamir says U.S. has a moral obligation to
provide Israel with loan guarantees, and that Israel would continue to build
settlements in the occupied territories. October 1991: The Washington Post
reports that President Bush waived U.S.-mandated sanctions against Israel after
U.S. intelligence determined that Israel had exported missile components to
South Africa. November 1991: Hours after concluding bilateral talks with Syria,
Israel inaugurates Qela, a new settlement in the Golan Heights. Secretary of
State Baker calls the action provocative. February 1992: Secretary of State
Baker says U.S. will not provide loan guarantees to Israel unless it ceases its
settlement activity. President Bush threatens to veto any loan guarantees to
Israel without a freeze on Israel’s settlement activity. March 1992:
U.S. administration confirms it has begun investigating intelligence reports
that Israel supplied China with technical data from U.S. Patriot missile
system. April 1992: State Department Inspector issues report that the
department has failed to heed intelligence reports that an important U.S. ally
widely understood to be Israel was making unauthorized transfers of U.S.
military technology to China, South Africa, Chile, and Ethiopia. May 1992:
Wall Street Journal cites Israeli press reports that U.S. officials have placed
Israel on list of 20 nations carrying out espionage against U.S. companies.
June 1992: U.S. Defense Department says Israel has rejected a U.S. request to
question former General Rami Dotan, who is at center of arms procurement
scandal involving U.S. contractors. July 1992: General Electric Company pleads
guilty to fraud and corrupt business practices in connection with its sale of
military jet engines to Israel. A GE manager had conspired with Israeli Gen.
Rami Dotan to divert $27 million in U.S. military aid with fraudulent vouchers.
U.S. Justice and Defense Departments do not believe that Dotan was acting in
his own interest, implying that the government of Israel may be implicated in
the fraud, which would constitute a default on Israel's aid agreements with the
U.S. June 1993: U.S. House of Representatives passes bill authorizing $80
million per year to Israel for refugee settlement; bill passes despite $10
billion in U.S. loan guarantees to Israel and against evidence from Israeli
economists that Israel no longer needs U.S. aid. October 1993: CIA informs Senate Government Affairs
Committee that Israel has been providing China for over a decade with several
billion dollars worth of advanced military technology. Israeli Prime Minister
Rabin admits Israel has sold arms to China. November 1993: CIA Director James
Woolsey makes first public U.S. acknowledgement that Israel is generally
regarded as having some kind of nuclear capability. December 1993: Time
magazine reports convicted spy Jonathan Pollard passed a National Security
Agency listing of foreign intelligence frequencies to Israel that later was
received by Soviets, ruining several billion dollars of work and compromising
lives of U.S. informants.
December 1994: Los Angeles Times reports Israel has given China
information on U.S. military technology to help in joint Israeli-Chinese
development of a fighter jet.
January 1995: When Egypt threatens not to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty because Israel will not sign, the U.S. says it will not pressure Israel
to sign. July 1995: U.S. Ambassador to Israel Martin Indyk demands Israel
abolish import barriers that discriminate against U.S. imports. November 1995: Israel grants citizenship to American spy
Jonathan Pollard. April 1996:
Using U.S.-supplied shells, Israel kills 106 unarmed civilians who had taken
refuge in a U.N. peace-keeping compound in Qana, southern Lebanon. U.N.
investigators, Amnesty International, and Human Rights Watch condemn the
shelling as premeditated. The U.N. Security Council calls on Israel to pay
reparations. Resolution is vetoed by the United States.
June 1996: U.S. State
Department hands Israeli defense officials classified CIA report saying Israel
has given China U.S. military avionics, including advanced radar-detection
system and electronic warfare equipment.
December 1996: Israeli cabinet reinstates large subsidies, including tax breaks
and business grants, for West Bank settlers. U.S. says the move is troubling
and clearly complicates the peace process. Israeli government rejects President
Clinton's criticism of the settlements and vows to strengthen them. February
1997: FBI announces that David Tenenbaum, a mechanical engineer working for the
U.S. army, has admitted that for the past 10 years he has inadvertently passed
on classified military information to Israeli officials. March 1997: U.S.
presses Israel to delay building new settlement of Har Homa near Bethlehem.
Prime Minister Netanyahu says
international opposition ‘will just strengthen my resolve.’ June 1997: U.S. investigators report that two Hasidic Jews
from New York, suspected of laundering huge quantities of drug money for a
Colombian drug cartel, recently purchased millions of dollars worth of land
near the settlements of Mahseya and Zanoah. September 1997: Jewish settlers in
Hebron stone Palestinian laborers working on a U.S.-financed project to
renovate the town’s main street. David Muirhead, the American overseeing the
project, says the Israeli police beat him, threw him into a van, and detained
him until the U.S. Consulate intervened. U.S. State Department calls the
incident simply unacceptable. September 1997: Secretary of State Albright says
Israel?s decision to expand Efrat settlement is not at all helpful to the peace
process. Prime Minister Netanyahu says he will continue to expand settlements.
May 1998: 13 years after denying he was not its spy, Israel officially
recognizes Pollard as its agent in hopes of negotiating his release. June 1998:
Secretary of State Albright phones Prime Minister Netanyahu to condemn his plan
to extend Jerusalem’s municipal boundaries and to move Jews into East
Jerusalem, particularly in the area adjacent to Bethlehem. Ignoring U.S.
protests, Israel?s cabinet unanimously approves plan to extend Jerusalem's
municipal authority. August 1998: Secretary Albright tells Prime Minister
Netanyahu that the freeze in the peace process due to the settlement policy is
harming U.S. interests in the Middle East and affecting the U.S.’s ability to
forge a coalition against Iraq. September
1998: Dutch newspaper NRC Handelsblad reports that the Israeli airliner that
crashed in Amsterdam in 1992 was not carrying gifts and perfume, as the
Israelis claimed, but three of the four chemicals used to make sarin nerve gas.
According to the plane's cargo manifest, the chemicals were sent from a U.S.
factory in Pennsylvania to the top secret Israeli Institute for Biological
Research. November 1998: Israeli
Foreign Minister Sharon urges Jewish settlers to grab West Bank land so it does
not fall under Palestinian control in any final peace settlement. May 1999:
U.S. denounces Israel's decision to annex more land to the Ma'ale Adumim
settlement. June 1999: The Israeli
company Orlil is reported to have stolen U.S. night-vision equipment purchased
for the Israeli Defense Forces and to have sold it to Far Eastern countries. April 2001: Prime Minister Sharon announces plans to build
708 new housing units in the Jewish settlements of Ma'ale Adumim and Alfe
Menashe. U.S. State Department criticizes the move as provocative. May 2001:
The Mitchell Committee (headed by former U.S. Senator George Mitchell)
concludes that Jewish settlements are a barrier to peace. Prime Minister Sharon
vows to continue expanding the settlements. May 2001: U.S. is voted off the
United Nations Commission on Human Rights for the first time since the
committee's establishment in 1947. The Financial Times of London suggests that
Washington, by vetoing U.N. resolutions alleging Israeli human rights abuses,
showed its inability to work impartially in the area of human rights. Secretary
of State Colin Powell suggests the vote was because we left a little blood on
the floor in votes involving the Palestinians. September 2001: Six days after
the 9/11 terrorist attacks on America, Secretary of State Powell, when asked
why America is hated in the Arab and Muslim world, acknowledges that the deep
resentment and anger toward the United States is due to the Palestinian crisis.
November 2001: Secretary of State Colin Powell calls on Israel to halt all
settlement building which he says cripples chances for real peace and security.
Benny Elon, a right-wing minister in the Sharon government, says the settlers
aren’t worried. America has a special talent for seeing things in the short
term, he says, explaining that what Powell said he said only to get Arab
support for America’s anti-terrorism coalition against Afghanistan. March 2002:
U.N. Sec. Gen. Kofi Annan calls for immediate withdrawal of Israeli tanks from
Palestinian refugee camps, citing large numbers of Palestinians reported dead
or injured. U.S. State Dept. says the United States has contacted Israel to
urge that utmost restraint be exercised in order to avoid harm to the civilian
population. April 2002: President Bush repeatedly demands an immediate halt to
Israel's military invasion of the West Bank. Prime Minister Sharon rebuffs the
President's withdrawal demands, saying the United States and other nations
should not put any pressure upon us. April 4, 2002: President Bush demands that
Israel halt its March 29 incursion into the West Bank, withdraw immediately,
and cease all settlement building. Three days later, Secretary of State Powell
says Bush's demand was a request. June 10, 2002: Prime Minister Sharon visits
White House. When reporters ask about Israel's ongoing incursions into Palestinian
towns, President Bush says Israel has a right to defend herself. September 30,
2003: President Bush signs the Foreign Relations Authorization Act, which
identifies Jerusalem as Israel's capital. November 25, 2002. Israel asks the
U.S. for $4-billion in military aid to defray the costs of fighting terrorism,
plus $10-billion in loan guarantees to support its struggling economy. May 29,
2003: Israel announces construction of a new Jewish settlement of 230 housing
units in East Jerusalem. July 29, 2003: Sharon rejects President Bush's appeal
to halt construction of a separation wall that Israel is building on occupied
Palestinian land. October 22, 2003: Former
Navy lawyer Ward Boston, who had helped lead the military investigation into
Israel's 1967 attack on the USS Liberty, files a signed affidavit stating that
President Johnson and Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara had ordered those
heading the naval inquiry to conclude that the attack was a case of mistaken
identity, despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. March 21, 2005: Prime Minister Sharon approves
construction of 3,500 new housing units in the Israeli settlement of Maale
Adumin to link it to East Jerusalem. The U.S. State Department has no comment.
May 2005: Newsweek reports that in the late 1990s, lobbyist Jack Abramoff
diverted more than $140,000 from charity contributions by Indian tribes to the
Israeli settlement of Beitar Illit for sniper equipment and training of settler
militias. AMEU Board of Directors Jane Adas (Vice President) Hugh D.
Auchincloss, Jr. Atwater, Bradley & Partners, Inc. Edward Dillon John
Goelet Richard Hobson, Jr. Anne R. Joyce Kendall Landis (Treasurer) Robert L.
Norberg (President) Hon. Edward L. Peck Former U.S. Ambassador Lachlan Reed
President, Lachlan International Talcott W. Seelye Former U.S. Ambassador to
Syria Donald L. Snook James M. Wall AMEU National Council Hon. James E. Akins
Isabelle Bacon William R. Chandler David S. Dodge Paul Findley Dr. Cornelius B.
Houk Cynthia Infantino O. Kelly Ingram Moorhead Kennedy Ann Kerr John J. McCloy
II David Nes Mary Norton C. Herbert Oliver Marie Petersen Dr. John C. Trever
Don M. Wagner Miriam Ward, RSM AMEU Executive Director: John F. Mahoney AMEU
grants permission to reproduce ?Lest We Forget? in part or in whole. AMEU must
be credited and one copy forwarded to our offices at 475 Riverside Drive, Room
245, New York, New York 10115-0245. Telephone: 212- 870-2053; E-mail:
[email protected]; website: www.ameu.org.
Paul
Craig Roberts: Government Abandoned Vietnam POWs Kurt Nimmo | John McCain worked overtime to
make sure Vietnam POWs never came home. I think the even bigger story vis-ŕ-vis
mccain is: http://www.albertpeia.com/heroenot.htm ‘Did you know that that so-called
"american heroe" john mccain was referred to by his fellow pows in
Vietnam as something akin to the "songbird" inasmuch as he was
constantly "singing" to his Viet-Cong captors to curry favor and
better treatment? This has been documented with authority by Colonel David
Hackworth. The same violates military code/protocol (other soldiers have been
court-martialed for far less)
click Here, Here. [ http://www.albertpeia.com/hackworth.htm
] But, you see, this covered up
scenario, compromizing the false facade of far less than a heroe, is exactly
what a criminal (lie of a) nation as america loves and encourages (get
everyone's hands dirty so no-one dares to rectify same, ie., bush, sr.,
clinton, bush, jr.). That is, "toe the (corrupt, propagandized)
line", become a criminal, or be exposed, prosecuted, and/or ruined; and,
hasn't anyone asked how "wall street" has been "spared the
spotlight" (and even was accorded protective legislation from their
criminal culpability) and focus of inquiry, attention, and prosecution despite
being the primary beneficiaries financial and otherwise of these scams (you
know the wall street motto, "churn and earn"; huge conflicts of
interest if not outright fraud)…’
Coalition wants UK space lift-off [ Don’t make me laugh! ]
Israel’s
Nukes Out of the Shadows Israel
faces unprecedented pressure to abandon its official policy of “ambiguity” on
its possession of nuclear weapons as the international community meets at the
United Nations in New York this week to consider banning such arsenals from the
Middle East.
NASA wants mission to bring Martian rocks to Earth (AP) Why?
They already have that and more:
Launch
of secret US space ship masks even more secret launch of new weapon
http://www.albertpeia.com/UFOetryWeNeverWentToTheMoonPNTV.wmv
Canada
among world's most peaceful nations The United States and Iran finished in a virtual dead
heat, and way down the list, in a magazine's assessment of the peacefulness of
121 countries. Meaningfully lawless uncivilized criminal nation america has
added their tainted touch to bring Iraq down to dead last on the list; and,
don’t forget war criminal nation america has probably played a role in Iran’s
status in light of criminal america’s op’s to destabilize Iran. In sum, the
study/ranking confirms if not understates my own direct observation and
experience with meaningfully lawless criminal america.
Finland
ranks as world's sixth most peaceful country Helsingin Sanomat
Norway tops
peaceful nation list, Iraq rates lowest Radio Australia
Magazine's
'peace index' puts US, Iran near bottom of list, Canada ...
Norway tops
peaceful nation list, Iraq (thanks to america) rates lowest Iraq (thanks to criminal nation america)
was in last place, with Sudan and international war criminal nation israel just
above. Some two-dozen indicators were used, including wars fought in the past
five years, arms sales, prison populations and incidence of crime.
Britain
drops down peace table Metro, UK - May 30, 2007
The wars in Iraq
and Afghanistan have pushed Britain down into criminal america’s league of
violent/unpeaceful nations.
Ghana:
World's 40th most peaceful The Statesman Online, Ghana - Scandinavian countries are the most
peaceful in the world. New Zealand ranks second and Denmark third on the list,
which notably puts Japan near the top and ...
UAE Ranks Among
World's Top 50 Peaceful Countries Bernama, Malaysia - ABU DHABI, May 31 (Bernama) -- The
UAE is in the top 50 of the world's more peaceful nations, and is the third
most peaceful Gulf country,
Iran,
US have something in common: Both rank high in violence Detroit Free Press
The United
States and Iran finished in a virtual dead heat, and way down the list, in a
magazine's assessment of the peacefulness of 121 countries. Meaningfully
lawless uncivilized criminal nation america has added their tainted touch to
bring Iraq down to dead last on the list; and, don’t forget war criminal nation
america has probably played a role in Iran’s status in light of criminal
america’s op’s to destabilize Iran. In sum, the study/ranking confirms if not
understates my own direct observation and experience with meaningfully lawless
criminal america.
New
Peace Index Ranks US Among Worst Nations Chosun
Ilbo, South Korea - A new study has ranked Norway as the most
peaceful country in the world, while placing the US near the bottom.
US
ranks low, just above Iran on peace index China
Daily, China - WASHINGTON - The United States is among the
least peaceful nations in the world, ranking 96th between Yemen and Iran,
according to a new index released on 5-31-07.
The data were drawn
from the United Nations, the World Bank, peace groups and the magazine
researchers' own assessments, Williamson said. "We are just mechanics and
technicians behind the index," he said. Norway was rated as the country
most at peace, followed by New Zealand, Denmark, Ireland and Japan. Canada
placed eighth, behind Finland and Sweden. Iraq was in last place, with Sudan
and international war criminal nation israel just above. The united states is among the least
peaceful nations in the world. Some two-dozen indicators were used, including wars fought in the
past five years, violence, organized crime, arms sales, prison populations and
incidence of crime.
In sum, the study/ranking confirms if not understates my own direct
observation and experience with meaningfully lawless criminal america.
Judicial Watch
... friendly page For Immediate Release Oct 8, 2002 Contact:
Press Office 202-646-5188 LOUIS FREEH WILL NOT ESCAPE ACCOUNTABILITY Judicial
Watch Lawsuits and Investigations Seek To Hold Him ...
Description: Judicial Watch is a non-profit, public interest
law firm dedicated to fighting government corruption.
http://www.judicialwatch.org/2619.shtml - Click here
LOUIS FREEH WILL NOT
ESCAPE ACCOUNTABILITY
... For Immediate Release Oct 8, 2002 Contact: Press Office
202-646-5188 LOUIS FREEH WILL NOT ESCAPE ACCOUNTABILITY Judicial Watch Lawsuits
and Investigations Seek To Hold Him Accountable ...
Description: no description
http://www.judicialwatch.org/printer_2619.shtml
- Click here
Judicial Watch
... CASE BY ENERGY DEPARTMENT WHISTLEBLOWER TO PROCEED
AGAINST FORMER FBI DIRECTOR LOUIS FREEH NOTRA TRULOCK ALLEGES ILLEGAL FBI
SEARCH AND SEIZURE IN RETALIATION FOR ARTICLE CRITICAL OF ...
Description: Judicial Watch is a non-profit, public interest
law firm dedicated to fighting government corruption.
http://www.judicialwatch.org/1107.shtml - Click here
JUDICIAL WATCH
VICTORY: APPEALS COURT ALLOWS CIVIL RIGHTS CASE BY ENERGY DEPARTMENT
WHISTLEBLOWER TO PROCEED AGAINST FORMER FBI DIRECTOR LOUIS FREEH
... CASE BY ENERGY DEPARTMENT WHISTLEBLOWER TO PROCEED
AGAINST FORMER FBI DIRECTOR LOUIS FREEH NOTRA TRULOCK ALLEGES ILLEGAL FBI
SEARCH AND SEIZURE IN RETALIATION FOR ARTICLE CRITICAL OF ...
Description: no description
http://www.judicialwatch.org/printer_1107.shtml
- Click here
Judicial Watch
... BUSH ADMINISTRATION EFFORT TO BLOCK CIVIL RIGHTS SUIT
AGAINST FORMER FBI DIRECTOR LOUIS FREEH BY ENERGY DEPARTMENT WHISTLEBLOWER
NOTRA TRULOCK (Washington, DC) Judicial Watch also announced ...
Description: Judicial Watch is a non-profit, public interest
law firm dedicated to fighting government corruption.
http://www.judicialwatch.org/1761.shtml - Click here
Judicial Watch
... Contact: Press Office 202-646-5188 SUPREME COURT RULES
AGAINST FORMER FBI DIRECTOR LOUIS FREEH Judicial Watch Wins Victory on Behalf
of Client Notra Trulock Case to Proceed to Discovery ...
Description: Judicial Watch is a non-profit, public interest
law firm dedicated to fighting government corruption.
http://www.judicialwatch.org/2814.shtml - Click here
JUDICIAL WATCH
VICTORIES
... BUSH ADMINISTRATION EFFORT TO BLOCK CIVIL RIGHTS SUIT
AGAINST FORMER FBI DIRECTOR LOUIS FREEH BY ENERGY DEPARTMENT WHISTLEBLOWER
NOTRA TRULOCK (Washington, DC) Judicial Watch also announced ...
Description: no description
http://www.judicialwatch.org/printer_1761.shtml
- Click here
SUPREME COURT RULES
AGAINST FORMER FBI DIRECTOR LOUIS FREEH
... Contact: Press Office 202-646-5188 SUPREME COURT RULES
AGAINST FORMER FBI DIRECTOR LOUIS FREEH Judicial Watch Wins Victory on Behalf
of Client Notra Trulock Case to Proceed to Discovery ...
Description: no description
http://www.judicialwatch.org/printer_2814.shtml
- Click here
Judicial Watch
... directed against him by Clinton administration
officials, former FBI Director Louis Freeh, and the now thoroughly discredited
FBI. Trulock’s First Amendment rights were violated by ...
Description: Judicial Watch is a non-profit, public interest
law firm dedicated to fighting government corruption.
http://www.judicialwatch.org/3431.shtml - Click here
JUDICIAL WATCH
VICTORY: JUDGE ORDERS CIA TO PRODUCE TRULOCK DOCUMENTS FOR REVIEW
... directed against him by Clinton administration
officials, former FBI Director Louis Freeh, and the now thoroughly discredited
FBI. Trulock’s First Amendment rights were violated by ...
Description: no description
http://www.judicialwatch.org/printer_3431.shtml
- Click here
Judicial Watch
... Circuit. This reinstated case involves Trulock's claims
against former FBI Director Louis Freeh for violating his constitutional
rights. “The Bush Justice Department feared that if the Trulock ...
Description: Judicial Watch is a non-profit, public interest
law firm dedicated to fighting government corruption.
http://www.judicialwatch.org/1431.shtml - Click here
Judicial Watch
... wiretap warrant applications by FBI agents (signed-off
by the former FBI Director, Louis Freeh) to the Foreign Intelligence
Surveillance Act (FISA) Court. Prior to September 11th, SA Wright ...
Description: Judicial Watch is a non-profit, public interest
law firm dedicated to fighting government corruption.
http://www.judicialwatch.org/2469.shtml - Click here
Judicial Watch
... waiting for documents to be produced by the government.
Notra Trulock’s case against Louis Freeh was settled in early 2004. Notra
Trulock’s case against Wen Ho Lee ended with a summary judgment ...
Description: Judicial Watch is a non-profit, public interest
law firm dedicated to fighting government corruption.
http://www.judicialwatch.org/ntrulock.shtml - Click here
TRULOCK CASE AGAINST
WEN HO LEE DISMISSED AT REQUEST OF PRESIDENT BUSH
... Circuit. This reinstated case involves Trulock's claims
against former FBI Director Louis Freeh for violating his constitutional
rights. “The Bush Justice Department feared that if the Trulock ...
Description: no description
http://www.judicialwatch.org/printer_1431.shtml
- Click here
FBI AGENT ROBERT
WRIGHT SAYS FBI AGENTS ASSIGNED TO INTELLIGENCE OPERATIONS CONTINUE TO PROTECT
TERRORISTS FROM CRIMINAL INVESTIGATIONS AND PROSECUTIONS
... wiretap warrant applications by FBI agents (signed-off
by the former FBI Director, Louis Freeh) to the Foreign Intelligence
Surveillance Act (FISA) Court. Prior to September 11th, SA Wright ...
Description: no description
http://www.judicialwatch.org/printer_2469.shtml
- Click here
Notra Trulock v.
Wen Ho Lee, et al.
... waiting for documents to be produced by the government. Notra Trulock’s
case against Louis Freeh was settled in early 2004. Notra Trulock’s case
against Wen Ho Lee ended with a summary judgment ...
Description: no description
http://www.judicialwatch.org/printer_ntrulock.shtml -
Click here
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