Leading Economic Indicators Continue to Suggest Return to Contraction Is Likely

 

 

 

U.S. Economy "Gradually Deteriorating," Levy Says: Recession Likely in 2011

 

 

 

 

Ten Reasons This Rally Is Ultimately Toast Wachtel ‘Here are 10 reasons why risk assets (stocks, riskier forex pairs, industrial commodities) have a very high probability of a pullback very soon.

Technical Indicators: High Risk Of Downturn
The S&P 500 is the best single representative of overall risk appetite. It is telling us that a pullback is coming very soon. (chart)
1. Coming Bounce Off Of Upper Bollinger Band (standard 2, 20 default settings):

Once the index starts to pull back from its upper Bollinger band, it usually pulls back to at least its 50 day SMA, often lower. Since the end of the most recent rally in late April, this rule has worked flawlessly in both mid-June and mid-August. The index is now once again at its upper Bollinger Band.

Up Against Multiple Reinforcing Layers Of Strong Resistance Around 1120.

2. Upper Bollinger Band (noted above).

3. 200 day SMA (purple line).

4. 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the February 2010 low (which has held up well as support, only violated for a few sessions in July and August).

5. Neckline (red horizontal line around 1125) of the big bearish Head-And-Shoulders pattern dating all the way back to the beginning of 2010. Left shoulder in January, head in April, and right shoulder in June.

6. This same resistance at 1125 is reinforced by another bearish chart pattern- a bearish double top (that may soon become a triple top if the above indicators prove correct).

7. Recent Rally On Low Volume: The rally that began in late August has been on very low volume, which suggests lack of conviction and thus less durability.

Fundamentals Don’t Support A Rally

8. We are heading into the second half of the month, which is lighter on significant news data than would be needed to justify a push past the above strong resistance layers

In addition, there is the overwhelmingly bearish fundamental backdrop:

9. US economic slowdown in every meaningful category: housing prices (where the bear market began), jobs, spending, etc. Even manufacturing, until recently a rare bright spot, has been slowing since the prior Philly Fed report.

10. The ongoing and utterly unsolved EU sovereign debt/banking crisis, with its now periodic eruptions. While we have no major eruptions reported recently, PIIGS sovereign and bank yields and CDS rates remain at May’s crisis levels, a clear indication that markets are very nervous and ready to sell off, as they have over the past weeks on news of Ireland’s latest bank bailout and a Wall Street Journal article on how the EU bank stress tests understated PIIGS bond exposure.

As noted in previous posts, support and resistance must be viewed as zones rather than precise points. The lack of news noted above could allow for continued quiet drift upward to 1140 or even a bit more.

However, that leaves little room to profit for anyone except very short term traders. Others should be planning short trades as the S&P and other risk assets head back down to test support. For the S&P 500 that would be around 1040 in the near term.

DISCLOSURE & DISCLAIMER: NO POSITIONS, THE ABOVE IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND NOT TO BE CONSTRUED AS SPECIFIC TRADING ADVICE. RESPONSIBILITY FOR TRADE DECISIONS IS SOLELY WITH THE READER.’

 

 

 

Philadelphia Manufacturing Index Falls

 

 

Foreclosures Rise; Repossessions Set Record CNBC | US foreclosure activity rose in August from the previous month, and banks and lenders took ownership from homeowners at a record pace.

 

Gold Rises to Record on Increased Demand for Wealth Protection Bloomberg | Gold rose to a record in London and New York as investors sought protection against turmoil in the global economy and financial markets. Silver rose to the highest price since March 2008.

 

Yen hits 15-year high vs dollar Reuters | The dollar hit a 15-year low against the yen on Tuesday, testing Japanese authorities’ resolve to stem the yen’s climb after Prime Minister Naoto Kan won a party leadership vote.

 

 

Regional Manufacturing Still Deteriorating

 

 

 

Despite Range Trading - Prominent Sell Signals Still Alive Simon Maierhofer, On Thursday September 16, 2010, 12:35 pm EDT  About a month ago, news about the ominous Hindenburg Omen, terrible September/October and other prominent sell signals were the big buzz around Wall Street. Has the recent rally and range bound trading neutralized or even eliminated the bearish undercurrents? A look at current sentiment would make you think so. Sentiment surveys show that bullishness has soared and optimists are back in control (see chart below).But are the optimists generally right? No. In fact, unfounded optimism is one of the biggest investment traps and most effective bear market tricks. On April 16, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned that: 'The message conveyed by the composite bullishness is unmistakably bearish. Most bulls have no clue why they are bullish except for the fact that they feel the need to play the momentum game. Sounds like 2000 and 2007 all over again.' When it comes to investing, emotions tend to get in the way of making money. It takes an opportunistic, yet realistic approach to profit in this market.
Parallels Between 2000, 2007, and Today
From a purely analytical point of view, the April ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter examined the 2000 and 2007 market tops and compared them with the 2010 price action, at a time when optimism was soaring sky-high. The parallels between the 2000, 2007 and forming 2010 tops were striking, that's why the newsletter concluded that: 'A comparison between the 2000 and 2007 double tops to the current constellations shows that the market may roll over at any time.' Similar to the January/April 2000 and July/October 2007 double tops, the April 2010 highs were preceded by a lower January top. But the parallels didn't stop there.
Major Tops Followed by Decoy Rallies
Following the initial 2007 decline, the April, May 2008 rally rekindled new hope and pushed the major indexes a la Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI), S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) briefly above their 200-day moving average (MA). Following the initial April 2010 decline, the July/August rally also pushed the S&P briefly above the 200-day MA.  Both, in 2008 and 2010, the indexes were rebuffed by the 200-day MA. The failure to stay above the 200-day MA in May 2008 was followed by a 53.75% decline in the S&P 500. Former performance leaders like the Financial Select Sector SPDRs (NYSEArca: XLF - News) and KBW Bank ETF (NYSEArca: KBE - News) tumbled 79%, the Technology Sector SPDRs (NYSEArca: XLK - News) dropped 49%. Even conservative sectors such as utilities (NYSEArca: XLU - News) and healthcare (NYSEArca: XLV - News) dropped another 35 - 45%. Like a free diver who comes up for air, the market tends to rally to keep investors engaged before the next leg down.  The chart below - which plots bullish advisor sentiment against the price of the S&P 500 from June 2007 - September 2010, illustrates the market's cruel habit of spreading hope just before the hammer drops. [chart]
It Happened Before
Since we are talking about prior market tops, we can't help but mention the mother of all sucker rallies, which occurred in 1929/1930. Following the initial 1929 meltdown, the 1930 rally recouped 50% of the previously lost points. Ironically, the 1930 rally ended on April 16. The 2010 counter trend rally ran its course on April 26. In addition to a near identical termination date, the two rallies rekindled the same kind of bullish sentiment. Below are a few headlines and statement from April 1930. Keep in mind that the Dow went on to decline more than 80% thereafter. 'For the immediate future, the outlook is bright' - Irving Fisher, Ph. D. in Economics 'I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism.' - Andrew W. Mellon, U. S. Secretary of the Treasury 'The depression is over' - Herbert Hoover, President  If you escaped the market in time, you might be able to read the following April 2010 headlines with a fair shot of humor and realize the irony: 'As job worries ease, will anything stop the stock market?' – CNBC 'Dow 11,000 is only the beginning' - Wall Street Journal 'Check the real estate: It is time to delve in' - Wall Street Journal
It Happened Recently
It's easy to dismiss any parallels to the Great Depression simply because it happened 80 years ago. However, an 80% drop is nothing unusual and has been seen recently. The Nasdaq (Nasdaq: QQQQ - News) peaked in 2000 and tumbled 78.4% within less than two years. Much evidence suggests that the Nasdaq's woes are not yet over with more losses and lower lows on the horizon. Oil prices tumbled 77% after topping at $147.3 a barrel in 2008. Both, the Nasdaq and oil prices topped at a time when higher prices were a foregone conclusion. With regards to oil, the expectation for higher fuel prices moved all major car manufacturers to advertise and build low MPG cars. As soon as their commercials hit TVs, radios, and newspapers across the country, oil and fuel prices started to drop like a rock. Some still dismiss those declines as sector bubbles, not broad market declines.
It Happened to an Entire Country
The Nikkei is Japan's version of the S&P 500 and covers hundreds of stocks. In 1989, the Nikkei topped at 38,946. Since then, it has dropped over 80% to below 8,000 (see chart below, published in the April 2010 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter). [chart] Throughout this 20-year decline, the Nikkei had eleven rallies of 20% or more and four that were 50% or more. In total, the Nikkei rallied well over 250,000 rally points, yet it remains 76% below its 1989 peak. The decline of Japan's stock market (NYSEArca: EWJ - News) and economy happened amidst a global bull market. Imagine what can happen to the U.S. stock market during a global recession spurred by European (NYSEArca: FEZ - News) debt woes and global stock market (NYSEArca: EFA - News) weakness. It's human nature to rationalize and invent reasons why something can't happen. It's the stock market's nature to prove investors wrong. Based on parallels that aren't farfetched by any means, a follow through of the post 2007 U.S. equity meltdown is more than just a possibility.
Fundamentals, Technicals, Valuations, and History in Agreement
Investing is about putting the odds in your favor. There is no such thing as a 100% certain profit opportunity. However, there are high probability profit opportunities where the odds of having a winning trade are high and the potential reward is much higher than the potential risk. Such high probability profit opportunities occur when as many indicators as possible point in the same direction. Right now, there is a near unanimous consent between fundamental and technical indicators, along with valuations and historic patterns. The latest ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter includes a detailed analysis of various market forecasting tools, along with a short, mid, and long-term outlook for the U.S. stock market and a target range for the ultimate market bottom. Even though the economic outlook is dim, realistic investors can feel optimistic about the opportunities in the months and years ahead.

 

 

Census Reveals 45m Americans Living in Poverty One in seven Americans is living below the poverty line, it was revealed yesterday. With 45mn Americans officially designated as poor, the US census figures reflect the worst decline in living standards for more than half a century.

 

Gold to Surge 50% to ‘Real’ Record? Gold’s resilient trend higher to a record this week has reassured gold bugs and new investors (see ETFs) alike that the metal’s secular bull market is intact and could ultimately approach its inflation-adjusted peak of $1901 in 1980.

 

Fed Issues More Debt Than It Needs On Friday, September 10, 2010, Horizon Bank, Bradenton, FL was closed by the Florida Office of Financial Regulation and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was named Receiver. No advance notice is given to the public when a financial institution is closed.

 

August Foreclosures Highest on Record RealtyTrac, an online foreclosure sale site, will release its monthly numbers on Thursday, but sources there confirm the number of repossessions will come in just shy of 100,000 for the month.

 

 

Stock Market Goes Into A Coma: Here's What You Need To Know  Weisenthal ‘Snooze. Fest. But first, the scoreboard;
Dow: +22.75
NASDAQ: +1.83
S&P 500: -044
And now, the top stories: