To see the graphs, view the original
article here.
The Dow Jones Industrial
Average, measured in how many ounces of gold it takes to buy the 30 stock DOW
is up 33% from its 17-year March 6th low of 7.03. Despite that impressive gain,
the DOW-Gold ratio remains 79% below its 1999 peak of 44.77
Here is a chart showing
the current Dow to Gold Ratio, the ratio of the price of the Dow Jones
Industrial Average to the price of gold. When measured in ounces of Gold, the
DOW has been in a secular bear market since peaking in late 1999. (Click charts, courtesy of stockcharts.com, for full size
image).
The
markets, measured by the S&P500 (S&P500 Charts) and DIJA (DJIA Charts), may have recovered to new highs in 2007, but
the DOW:Gold ratio told a different, truer story of just how unhealthy the US
economy was.
The scary part is the
DJIA-to-Gold ratio got down near 1 in the early 1980s and was just under 0.2 in
the early 1800s.
Which
way do you think the DOW-Gold ratio is headed? Post your answer here.
The DOW/Gold ratio broke out of the "symmetrical
triangle" pattern, explained below, when we entered our first recession
and the markets were in the March 2000 to October 2002 bear market.
The good news is the chart shows the DOW:Gold ratio
is very over sold.
This 200 Year Dow/Gold Chart
courtesy of www.sharelynx.com
shows the DOW/Gold ratio from 1800 through August 2008.
With the
DOW:Gold ratio now at 9.36, it is trading below the green zone in the second
chart. The ratio is
oversold, but nothing says it can't get more "oversold."
CDs have been a "safe haven" for those wishing
to preserve assets and get a small inflation adjusted return. See "Very Best CD Rates with FDIC" for a list of the best
rates and terms.
US Treasury rates are so low, that they are paying less
than long term inflation. See:
More on "Symetrical
Triangle" chart patterns:
The Bible for technical analysis, Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, by
Robert Edwards and John Magee, says about 75% of symmetrical triangles are
continuation patterns and the rest mark reversals. This
book makes a great Gift!
The "return to the
apex" of the Gold/DOW ratio in late 2001, early 2002 confirmed the
technical breakdown of this chart pattern.
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