Yes! It is a full moon with
predictable lunacy from the lunatic frauds on wall street!
YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]:
‘The S&P 500 pushed through technical resistance to set a fresh four-month
high on Monday. There
were no catalysts or headlines to account for the climb. Only a bullish bias among market
participants underpinned the move.
Stocks made only modest gains in the early going. Most traders took
their cues from Europe, where the major bourses staged strong gains as concerns
about sovereign debt subsided. Early action was generally consistent with the
relatively cautious trade that typically precedes an FOMC announcement, the
latest of which will be released tomorrow afternoon. Though no rate actions are
expected tomorrow, many will look for changes in the verbiage of the actual the
FOMC statement to give clues about where policy might be headed …’ Riiiiight … changes in VERBIAGE … in other words, b*** s*** alone
… Come on! … you just can’t make this
stuff up … again! (the no-recession fed, then nation-bankrupting spending, then
just before election ‘recession over’ … the recession that’s a depression that
never ended and there’s desperation in the air … and the the frauds on wall
street are taking advantage of the pre-election b*** s***) … the new ‘churn and
earn fraud they’ll get their commissions again on the way down’ … THIS IS A
GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL / TAKE PROFITS SINCE THERE’S MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO
COME!
Gerald
Celente: US Economy = Depression Famous investor and billionaire George Soros referred to the US
economy as “blah,” saying he expects a further slowdown. US President Barack
Obama has insisted however that the US economy is heading in the right
direction. Gerald Celente, the director of the Trends Research Institute said
the economy is not just blah, it’s in a depression. It’s the summer of the
greatest recession,” he said.
Too
Much Liquidity Creating New Investment Bubbles … Again?
#1 The Census Bureau says that 43.6 million Americans
are now living in poverty and according to them that is the highest number of
poor Americans in
51 years of record-keeping.
#2 In the year 2000, 11.3
percent of Americans were living in poverty. In 2008, 13.2 percent of
Americans were living in poverty. In 2009, 14.3 percent of Americans were
living in poverty. Needless to say the trend is moving in the wrong
direction.
#3 In 2009 alone, approximately
4 million more Americans joined the ranks of the poor.
#4 According to the Associated Press, experts believe
that 2009 saw the
largest single year increase in the U.S. poverty rate since the U.S.
government began calculating poverty figures back in 1959.
#5 The U.S. poverty rate is now the third worst among
the developed nations tracked by the Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development.
#6 Today the United States has approximately 4
million fewer wage earners than it did in 2007.
#7 Nearly 10 million Americans now receive
unemployment insurance, which is
almost four times as many as were receiving it in 2007.
#8 U.S. banks repossessed 25
percent more homes in August 2010 than they did in August 2009.
#9 One out of every seven mortgages in the United
States was either delinquent or in foreclosure during the first quarter of
2010.
#10 There are now 50.7
million Americans who do not have health insurance. One trip to the
emergency room would be all it would take to bankrupt a significant
percentage of them.
#11 More
than 50 million Americans are now on Medicaid, the U.S. government
health care program designed principally to help the poor.
#12 There are now over
41 million Americans on food stamps.
#13 The number of Americans enrolled in
the food stamp program increased a
whopping 55 percent from December 2007 to June 2010.
#14 One out of every six Americans is now being served by
at least one government anti-poverty program.
#15 California’s poverty rate soared
to 15.3 percent in 2009, which was the highest in 11 years.
#16 According to an analysis by Isabel Sawhill and Emily
Monea of the Brookings Institution, 10 million more Americans (including 6
million more children) will slip into poverty over
the next decade.
#17 According to a recently released Federal Reserve report,
Americans experienced a $1.5
trillion loss in combined household net worth in the second quarter of
2010.
#18 Manufacturing employment in the U.S. computer industry is
actually lower in 2010 than
it was in 1975.
#19 Median U.S. household income is
down 5 percent from its peak of more than $52,000 in 1999.
#20 A study recently released by the Center for
Retirement Research at Boston College University found that Americans are
$6.6 trillion short of what they need for retirement … ‘
Black
September Postponed, New Month Yet To Be Determined Shell ‘… US markets
have to assimilate notes from the FOMC meeting and various housing reports this
week. Today, the National Association of Home Builders Index came in at 13,
unchanged from the previous month. With 50 a neutral number, there was no
optimism here. Tomorrow US building permits and housing starts will be
announced. With US home seizures and bank foreclosures rising to records, and
banks offering these home in competition with new homes, new home builders may
be relying upon divine intervention to assist with their sales…’
Major Indices Up Against the Wall ‘ …
Bad News:
Oil
dropped to a two week low on concerns for global growth.
Ireland
and Portugal were back in the news with the Irish/German Bund spread reaching
record highs along with the cost of insurance on their debt; the story was the
same in Portugal and these developments helped to drive the Euro down against
the dollar.
Barclays
Bank (BCS) issued a memo saying that Ireland may
need IMF help, a view that was promptly and vigorously denied by the Irish
government, but the markets seemed to rebuff those denials as gold reached a
new record high.
On
the home front, Fed Ex (FDX) reported
seeing slower growth ahead and on Friday we saw our 125th bank failure for the
year.
The
New York Empire Manufacturing Index posted a huge miss for September, coming in
at 4.1, down from a previous 7.1 and consensus estimate of 6.4
Industrial
production declined in August to +0.2% from +0.6%.
On
Friday, an unexpected drop in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
index to 66.6 for September took that index to its lowest level in more than a
year.
Unemployment
remains at a quarter century high while in 2009, the U.S. poverty rate was the
highest since 1994, with 14% of Americans living below the poverty line.
In
the all important real estate market, Realty Trac reported that bank
repossessions hit a record high in August and now one out of every 380 homes in
America are in some phase of the foreclosure process. There is now a three year
supply of distressed homes on the market and this comes against the backdrop of
household wealth declining 2.8% in the second quarter and the lowest median
household income since 1997.
The
lumber industry is an important facet of the U.S. economy and is reflective of
the state of the housing industry. This week the Western Wood Products
Association reports that 2009 was its worst year on record and that 2010 timber
sales and production could be even worse. In 2005, the U.S. had a record 2.1
million housing starts that dropped to 555,000 in 2009, the lowest number of
starts since World War II.
All
of this would lead to the obvious conclusion that we could expect still lower
home prices ahead.
What It All Means
From
a technical standpoint, the markets are poised for a significant decline and
from a macro standpoint; significant risks are inherent in the slowing economy
and problems in Europe heating up yet again. Seasonality also points to
increasing danger as September and October tend to be treacherous months for
market declines.
Furthermore,
mutual fund cash levels are at record lows and this phenomenon was also in play
before both the 2000 and 2008 market meltdowns. With not much gas left in the
tank and an ominous macro environment, it’s hard to make a bullish case in the
weeks ahead.
However
there’s always the possibility for upside surprises from resilient earnings
reports and ever present, not so invisible hand of government intervention here
and abroad.
A
sustained breakout higher will likely lead to a significant rally while failure
here will likely lead to a significant correction to test recent lows.
The most likely probability is for a move lower and Wall Street Sector Selector
remains in the “Red Flag” mode, expecting lower prices ahead.’
How
Wall Street Manipulates the News...And Investors Shaefer Wall Street’s
business model depends upon two factors:
(1) Keeping
you interested enough in the markets to leave your cash with them so they can
float it, make a return on it higher than the one they pay you, and use your
cash to convince the regulators that they have enough in “assets” to borrow
money to expand their own proprietary trading, and...
(2) Keeping
you trading. The easiest way for them to do this is to slant the news favorably
for a few weeks to a few months, then slant the same or similar news
unfavorably for a few weeks to a few months. This way, they get you to buy on
their alleged good news, then sell when the news “turns bad” and hopes are
dashed. That gives them two commissions instead of one. Done over the course of
a year, it gives them dozens rather than one or two.
A recent case
in point is the current rally based upon the fact that the ISM Manufacturing
index rose from 55.5 to 56.3, an inconsequential amount not much bigger than a
rounding error, from July to August of 2010, an inconsequential time frame too
short to measure anything meaningful. The following week, the ISM
Non-Manufacturing Index (“services” rather than manufacturing) fell a rather
more consequential 54.3 to 51.5, its lowest reading since January, a rather
more consequential time frame. Since Services comprise three-quarters of US
economic activity, one might think this would have been cause for concern. But
the news was buried on page 16 because Wall Street wants us buying now, not
selling. Once they have their shorts in place (today? tomorrow?) so they can
profit both from their short positions and from retail investors’ panic selling
and the commissions that flow only from activity, you’ll find “the news” has
magically turned bad again. Then, after they have your commission dollars and
their profits from short-selling, they'll spin the news positively again. It’s
a classic example of Lucy van Pelt whisking the football away from Charlie
Brown every time he gets th-i-i-s close to actually kicking it through the
uprights. But you don’t have to play along! Stand back from the daily barrage
of data and “commentary” on the data and you’ll see the entire process more
clearly. And if you agree, you might take a look at selling into euphoria and
buying into despair, as we try to do. The current outlook is supposedly nothing
but lollipops and rainbows, so we are now short via ProShares' inverse ETFs:
S&P 500 (SH), Emerging Markets (EUM), and Russell 2000 (RWM). I expect a rally based upon
real, versus manufactured, slanted and spun, news, this fall. Throwing out the
current crop of ne’er-do-wells in Congress alone should be good for a few
hundred points on the Dow. But, personally, I don’t see that rally mounting
from 10,600. No, Wall Street needs to terrify the public one more time, so they
can cover their short positions and buy cheaply as the public sells. A decline
below 10,000, possibly well below 10,000, is in their interest before the next
big rally. Do your own due diligence – stand aside and watch the manipulation
of the silliest sorts of news like: “Only 450,000 newly-unemployed this month
in America! Economists had predicted 460,000!! Buy!!! Buy!!!!” And if you
agree, take a look at the above and other inverse ETFs. I imagine they’ll be
very good to us over the next few weeks or couple months…
Author's
Disclosure: We and those
clients for whom it is appropriate own or are purchasing SH, EUM, and RWM.
The Fine
Print: As Registered
Investment Advisors, we see it as our responsibility to advise the following:
we do not know your personal financial situation, so the information contained
in this communiqué represents the opinions of the staff of Stanford Wealth
Management, and should not be construed as personalized investment advice. Past
performance is no guarantee of future results, rather an obvious statement but
clearly too often unheeded judging by the number of investors who buy the
current #1 mutual fund only to watch it plummet next month! We encourage you to
do your own research on individual issues we recommend for your analysis to see
if they might be of value in your own investing. We take our responsibility to
proffer intelligent commentary seriously, but it should not be assumed that
investing in any securities we are investing in will always be profitable. We
do our best to get it right, and we “eat our own cooking,” but we could be
wrong, hence our full disclosure as to whether we own or are buying the
investments we write about.’
The
Mega-Bear Quartet and L-Shaped 'Recoveries' Doug Short I retired this chart series in early August in
deference to my preferred inflation-adjusted
series that aligns the S&P 500 2000 high with the Nikkei peak in 1989.
Here's an update of the retired series by special request.
This chart
series overlays the current S&P 500 with the L-shaped
"recoveries" after the Dow Crash of 1929, the Nikkei 225 after
Japan's 1989 bubble, and the post Tech Bubble NASDAQ. Click the chart below for
a larger version and use the links to see various comparisons. [chart]
I've also
included an updated two-decade inflation-adjusted
chart, which gives us a fascinating visualization of the impact of
inflation on long-term market prices. The higher the rate of inflation during a
bear market, the greater the real decline. Compare, for example, the peak of the
Dow rally in year seven with the same peak in the two-decade nominal
chart. The difference is the result of deflation during the Great
Depression.
It's rather stunning to see the real (inflation-adjusted) decline of the
Nikkei, two decades years after its crash. The recent lows rival the traumatic
Dow bottom in 1932, less than 3 years after its peak.
These charts remind us that bear markets can last a long time. And it's not
necessary to go back to the Great Depression for an example.
[See also my preferred
version, which puts the start of the current secular bear in 2000 with the
popping of the Tech Bubble. In inflation-adjusted terms, the S&P 500
reached its all-time high in March 2000. Although the nominal high in October
2007 was higher, the "real" high was not.]
Note: These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study
the today's market in relation to historic market cycles.
The Analysts Are Starting to Get Silly Moenning In doing my weekend research,
I came across a couple of items that reminded me why I am such a cynic:
First,
beware of "Conventional Wisdom": I believe it is safe to say that it
is widely accepted that Merger & Acquisition (M&A) activity is
generally viewed as a positive. That it reflects a view that "stocks are
cheap" and that the act of buying represents a source of demand. While
true to some degree, I found the following points from an opposing view to be
interesting:
Here are some interesting points; I'm
sure you'll agree:
Second, in this week's Barron's
I came across the following excerpt from "The Weekly Speculator"
(date tagged Sept. 16) in the Market Watch Section. I use this only as an
example, and not as a general criticism of this newsletter. The excerpt reads
in part as follows:
...but it is our belief that recent
months have seen a data cycle play out, rather than a genuine moderation of
economic activity. Support for this view has certainly been delivered in recent
weeks by a sudden firming of US economic data, which has consistently been
above consensus since late August.
Really?
It seems to me that housing sales have
collapsed since the the "Home Buyer Credit" ended. Automobile sales
cratered after the "Cash for Clunkers" program finished. Inventories
are building again, which may very well not be a sign of confidence, but simply
overstocking. Consumer credit continues to contract. Consumer sentiment is
falling. I could go on.
Certainly there have been some positive
reports, mostly it seems relating to layoffs, jobless claims, etc. But in
general, I read the data as bottom-bouncing at best, and a re-intensifying
contraction as a fair possibility. Examine the below table of recent economic
reports which I have compiled. It is by no means complete, but hopefully will
give a fair representation of recent economic reports. You be the judge:
Recent Economic Data
|
|
|
Reuters |
Reuters |
|
9/17 |
UofM Conf |
66.6 |
70.0 |
68.9 |
Worse |
9/16 |
Philly Fed |
-0.70 |
3.8 |
-7.7 |
Missed |
9/16 |
Jobless Claims |
450K |
455K |
451K |
Better |
9/16 |
Producer Price Index |
+0.4% |
+0.3% |
+0.2% |
Worst |
9/15 |
Industrial Production |
+0.2% |
+0.2% |
+1.0% |
Worst |
9/15 |
Empire Manuf Survey |
4.14 |
5.00 |
7.10 |
Weakening |
9/14 |
Business Inventories |
+1.0% |
+0.6% |
+0.3% |
Improving |
9/14 |
Retail Sales |
+0.4% |
+0.3% |
+0.4% |
Better? |
9/10 |
Wholesale Inventories |
+1.3% |
N/A |
+0.1% |
Improving |
9/8 |
Consumer Credit |
-$3.6 billion |
-$3.5 billion |
-$1.3 billion |
Weakening |
9/8 |
Beige Book |
Widespread Signs |
N/A |
N/A |
Weakening |
9/3 |
Non-Farm Payroll |
-54K |
-90K |
-131K |
Better |
9/3 |
Unemployment Rate |
9.6% |
9.6% |
9.5% |
Flat/Worsening |
9/2 |
Factory Orders |
+0.1% |
+0.3% |
-0.6% |
Weak |
9/1 |
Domestic Car Sales |
8.3M |
8.7M |
8.9M |
Weaker |
8/25 |
New Home Sales |
276K |
340K |
330K |
Record Low |
8/24 |
Existing Home Sales |
3.83M |
4.65M |
5.37M |
15 year low |
Relating to the decline in outstanding
consumer credit, I believe that this is part of the consumer getting their
house in order. I feel that it will help build a solid foundation from which a
secular (long-term) economic advance could begin such as the 50s and 60s and
the 80s and 90s.
For the immediate future however, I am
of the opinion that declining consumer credit reflects an attitude by the
consumer to spend less, and this will be a damper to the economy in the short
run.
Inventory build-ups are more of an iffy
situation. If the reflect an unintended accumulation of unsold merchandise,
then a period of inventory reduction may be forth-coming. It is this inventory
reduction that concerns me and would be one more near term negative.
So, what do take away from this? Just
because it's written or spoken doesn't make it true, even my statements. Take
very little on faith, especially when it is regarding the markets.
"Trust no one" - Walter
Donovan to Indiana Jones, Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade
Disclosure: No positions
Historian:
Mao Greatest Mass Murderer in World History Independent | Mr Dikötter is the only author to have delved into
the Chinese archives since they were reopened four years ago.
Bill
Maher digs up O'Donnell 'witchcraft' clip (AP) [ She’s done! There’s no excuse for that! None! ] ‘… "I dabbled into witchcraft. I never
joined a coven," she said. " ... I hung around people who were doing these
things. I'm not making this stuff up. I know what they told me they do,"
she said. "... One of my first dates with a witch was on a satanic altar,
and I didn't know it. I mean, there's little blood there and stuff like
that," she said. "We went to a movie and then had a little midnight
picnic on a satanic altar." …’ Occult
Obsessed Elite Claim Christine O’Donnell is a Witch Kurt Nimmo | The corporate media, the propaganda organ of the global elite, sets
its sites on Delaware’s Christine O’Donnell. … Sorry kurt … there’s no excuse
for that … she’s done!
Defaults
- Not Frugality - Account for Debt Decline
‘If you think that American consumers have found religion when it comes
to debt, you might be surprised by what really is happening. From the
WSJ:
First, consider household debt. Over the two years
ending June 2010, the total value of home-mortgage debt and consumer credit
outstanding has fallen by about $610 billion, to $12.6 trillion, according to
theFederal Reserve. That’s an annualized decline of about
2.3%, which is pretty impressive given the fact that such debts grew at an
annualized rate in excess of 10% over the previous decade.
There are two ways, though, that the debts can
decline: People can pay off existing loans, or they can renege on the loans,
forcing the lender to charge them off. As it happens, the latter accounted for
almost all the decline. Over the two years ending June 2010, banks and other
lenders charged off a total of about $588 billion in mortgage and consumer
loans, according to data from the Fed and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.
That means consumers managed to shave off only $22
billion in debt through the kind of belt-tightening we typically envision. In
other words, in the absence of defaults, they would have achieved an annualized
decline of only 0.08%…’
Drudgereport: GREAT
ESCAPE: HOUSE MAY ADJOURN '3 WEEKS EARLY’ [ Two views: 1) Despite the rhetoric,
spin, fake data, etc., the country is defacto bankrupt and ashambles 2) At
least they won’t be able to do more damage ] '
Prince
Charles: 'I happily talk to plants, trees' … yeah, inbreeding eventually takes
its toll ...
UK
Proposes All Paychecks Go to the State First… Wow! ...
(9-20-10) Dow
10,753 +145 Nasdaq 2,355 +40 S&P 500 1,142 +17 [CLOSE- OIL $74.86
(-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS
$2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/ $3.35
PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) / GOLD
$1,280 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER
$20.80 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,623 (+56% for year 2009) /
DOLLAR= .76 EURO, 85 YEN, .64 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go -
LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.71% …..… AP
Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update...
T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International This Is a Secular Bear
Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is coming!
‘WORST
ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’ Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC
The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
WHAT YOU SAID: WHAT YOU SAID
(Washington Post) ‘ Ralph Novak Lincoln, Calif. I retired in 1983 after 24 years as an Air Force
officer and retired again from DoD as a GS-15 in early 2005 after 20 years of
service and moved to Northern California in 2006’. … ‘Yeah, I'm not rich, but my out-of-work neighbors who used to
have household incomes of $300K to $500K and house payments of $5K to $8K a
month look at me with a lot of envy. I worked hard, saved the TSP max and am
thankful that my wife took the long view and pressed me to stay with the
federal government. It's hard to see what monetary value there is in spending
an entire career as a GS employee when you are working long, stress-filled days
and years. But the first thing you should do after retirement is to go to your
next high school/college reunion and see how the rest of the world is
doing.’ [What a typical pathetic loser
this guy is; and typifies that government employee attitude of indispensability
when in fact they are not only superfluous and expendable, but actually a
substantial drag on the nation but are a positive in one respect … adding to
the nations insurmountable debt; ‘long, stress-filled days and years’ … don’t
make me laugh! He forgot to say that
incompetent (and corrupt, etc.) government types like him, living off the ever
expanding bureaucratic t*t (bushes are a great example as well, etc.) have
played a huge role in creating the deplorable conditions and debacle the
defacto bankrupt nation is now facing. ]
Secretary of stand-up: Corny Washington
jokes? Robert Gates has a million of 'em. (Washington
Post) [ Could it be that’s because he
is a joke. Certainly his prognosticating continues to be … a joke. Aw, well,
what the heck, he’s an affable killer from the CIA and he has resuscitated the
heroin trade in Afghanistan, along with protracted war, etc., after all … eh …
cut him some slack … riiiiight! ]
Economists Herald New Great
Depression The world is currently
experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression, according to a
prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others now forecasting
ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.) , and my position,
Nobel Prize Winner Krugman’s, and that of demographer Dent … This is a global depression. This is a
secular bear market in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated
bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically
manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that
the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical
wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior
crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until
justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted,
jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed … Krugman: It's All Downhill From
Here Cullen Roche Love him or hate him
Paul Krugman has been awfully right with regards to the macro picture in the
last few years. He’s one of the rare economists who had the foresight to see
the housing bubble and the likelihood of economic downturn that would result
from it. Krugman recently caused a stir when he said the US economy was headed
for the third depression. He isn’t back down from that outlook:
I’ve had a couple of conversations
lately with people who follow politics and public affairs, but aren’t that
close to the economic discussion — and I’ve discovered that there are two
comforting delusions still out there.
Delusion #1 is that we’re on the road
to recovery, just more slowly than we’d like; to be fair, the White House keeps
saying this.
But it’s not at all true. GDP is
growing below potential; employment, even if you focus just on private employment,
is growing more slowly than the working-age population. If you ask how long it
will take us to return to, say, 5 percent unemployment on the current track,
the answer is forever.
Delusion #2 is the belief that the
stimulus may yet do the trick, because there are still substantial funds
unspent. I tried to deal with this last year.
The level of GDP depends not on total funds spent, but on the rate at which
funds are being spent, which has already peaked; GDP growth on the rate of
change in the rate at which funds are being spent, which peaked last year. It’s
all downhill from here.
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a
Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012). ]
Accumulating
Incongruities [ Bottom line in this article is that the author (and
me) doesn’t buy the labor /
unemployment stats which have been skewed / guesstimated to the up side which
probably is no surprise given the abounding desperation and proximity to the
elections ]
Household
Net Worth Plunges By Most Since Q4 2008, As Government Borrowing Surges In
other words, the net wealth of the US household continues to track the
performance of the stock market tick for tick. And one wonders why the Fed, per
Alan Greenspan’s admission, is only focused on ramping stocks up to all time
highs.
This
is only half of the story though. Despite all these methodological weaknesses I
was curious enough to look for the list of states with the worst and best
poverty rates. I skimmed through their 88 page report but I could not find a
single table breaking down their flawed results by state. This must be top
secret information, I said to myself.
Drudgereport: Doomsday warnings of US apocalypse gain ground...
Audit:
$2 million per stimulus job...
1
in 7 Americans lives in poverty...
50-year
high...
Foreclosures
Rise; Repossessions Set Record...
Gold
hits new high...
US poverty on track to post record gain
under Obama...
Last minute aid helps city dodge default...
MICHELLE
IN 'HELL': 'CAN'T STAND' FIRST LADY JOB … (at least there’s some reciprocity)
...
BREITBART Shock Audio: Facing 'Obligations' From Leadership,
Democrat Congresswoman Leaves Voicemail for Lobbyist Cash...
RASMUSSEN:
First Post-Primary Poll, Coons winning in Delaware
Coons (D) 53% O’Donnell (R) 42%
Will
light bulb manufacturing stay in the U.S.? [ Methinks it’s a bit late to be
asking that question. In fact, meknows it’s too late to be asking that question
in light of the irrevocable structural shift precipitated by those geniuses in
Washington, including among other helmsmen of this now titanic of a nation,
those ‘strategists’ in those hallowed halls of, ie., the cia, nsa, think tanks,
sink tanks, etc., and of course, those vaunted trade deals which include
essentially all branches of the corrupt u.s. government with complicit titans /
ceos of american industry with a time horizon defined by their latest
compensation package / stock option expirations as cheered by the wall street
frauds who sold off / transferred the technological capacity to do so; and, of
course, the coup de grace, viz., that thing called NAFTA that Ross Perot was
vilified for opposing and warning against. There is really nothing in america
that can’t be produced cheaper elsewhere. Then there’s the defacto bankruptcy
of the nation when even more corporate welfare / subsidies would be necessary
to make such even remotely possible. As for prospective purported technological
advances / innovations, from my view there’s only so much utility that can
derived / squeezed from ‘hula hoops’. ]
Bank
got even more special help (Washington Post) [ Special
help? … Talk about euphemisms … LA, yes dudes, way (as they say in the
valley! ] OneUnited, now at the center
of a House ethics probe, received TARP aid despite its poor health. Warren
to be tapped as adviser (Washington Post) [ Well, that about does it …
slam-dunk for the administration … yet another ivy leaguer who at least to her
credit has talked tough; but, show us the prosecutions … show us the money
(they took) ! Show them the jail walls!
Handcuffs For Wall Street, Not
Happy Talk Zach Carter | The fraud allegations that have emerged over the past year are not
restricted to a few bad apples at shady companies — they involve some of the
largest players in global finance. ] Obama plans to tap Harvard law professor
to a special advisory role so she can help stand up a new consumer financial
protection bureau while avoiding a potentially vicious Senate confirmation
fight. Senate
passes small business credit measure (Washington Post) [ Riiiiight! That should
do the trick! Besides … It’s an election year … time to celebrate … you know,
don’t worry, be happy … and what’s a paltry amount like that anyway for defacto
bankrupt america, an interest payment on the insurmountable debt anyway … what
the heck! (Economists Herald New Great
Depression , see infra) ]The bill creates a $30 billion government fund to help open
lending for credit-starved small businesses, cut their taxes and boost federal
loan programs for them.
Clinton
wraps up Israeli, Palestinian talks - for now (Washington
Post) [ That’s a wrap (Hollywood speak), or just a lot of crap (reality). Well
some celluloid facetime (hill, I said celluloid, not cellulite), appearance of
doing something (not). U.S.
urges Arab states to drop israel nuclear treaty demand Reuters Oooooh! Wow! Sounds like a plan! … For world
conflagration … Another step toward nuclear prone middle east … israel should
be exempt because ….. ‘US –
Israel’s partner in crime, not a referee’ … You really can’t make this stuff up; the preposterous s***
coming out of america! ]The U.S. envoy to the UN atomic watchdog urged Arab
states to withdraw a resolution calling on Israel to sign an anti-nuclear arms
treaty, warning it would send a negative signal to Middle East peace
talks. Israelis,
Palestinians already broaching tough topics in talks, envoy says (Washington
Post) ‘US –
Israel’s partner in crime, not a referee’ (Infowars.com) Israeli and Palestinian leaders are holding a new
round of direct talks. Bombshell:
Barack Obama conclusively outed as CIA creation Wayne Madsen |
Investigative journalist Wayne Madsen has discovered CIA files that document
the agency’s connections to the lives of Barack Obama and his mother, father,
grandmother, and stepfather. ]
RAMALLAH, WEST BANK - Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton on Thursday
wrapped up three days of intense Middle East diplomacy that produced good
atmospherics but no sign that an impasse over Israeli settlement construction
has been resolved. (Alex Brandon - AP)
Leading Economic Indicators Continue to Suggest Return to
Contraction Is Likely
U.S.
Economy "Gradually Deteriorating," Levy Says: Recession Likely in
2011
Philadelphia
Manufacturing Index Falls
Foreclosures
Rise; Repossessions Set Record CNBC
| US foreclosure activity rose in August from the previous month, and banks and
lenders took ownership from homeowners at a record pace.
Ten Reasons This Rally Is Ultimately Toast
Wachtel ‘Here are 10 reasons why risk assets (stocks, riskier forex pairs,
industrial commodities) have a very high probability of a pullback very soon.
Technical Indicators: High Risk Of Downturn
The S&P
500 is the best single representative of overall risk appetite. It is telling
us that a pullback is coming very soon. (chart)
1. Coming Bounce Off Of Upper Bollinger Band (standard 2, 20 default settings):
Once the index starts to pull back from its upper Bollinger
band, it usually pulls back to at least its 50 day SMA, often lower. Since the
end of the most recent rally in late April, this rule has worked flawlessly in
both mid-June and mid-August. The index is now once again at its upper
Bollinger Band.
Up Against Multiple Reinforcing Layers Of Strong Resistance
Around 1120.
2. Upper Bollinger Band (noted above).
3. 200 day SMA (purple line).
4. 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the February 2010 low (which
has held up well as support, only violated for a few sessions in July and
August).
5. Neckline (red horizontal line around 1125) of the big bearish
Head-And-Shoulders pattern dating all the way back to the beginning of 2010.
Left shoulder in January, head in April, and right shoulder in June.
6. This same resistance at 1125 is reinforced by another bearish
chart pattern- a bearish double top (that may soon become a triple top if the
above indicators prove correct).
7. Recent Rally On Low Volume: The rally that began in late
August has been on very low volume, which suggests lack of conviction and thus
less durability.
Fundamentals Don’t Support A Rally
8. We are heading into the second half of the month, which is
lighter on significant news data than would be needed to justify a push past
the above strong resistance layers
In addition, there is the overwhelmingly bearish fundamental
backdrop:
9. US economic slowdown in every meaningful category: housing
prices (where the bear market began), jobs, spending, etc. Even manufacturing,
until recently a rare bright spot, has been slowing since the prior Philly Fed
report.
10. The ongoing and utterly unsolved EU sovereign debt/banking
crisis, with its now periodic eruptions. While we have no major eruptions
reported recently, PIIGS sovereign and bank yields and CDS rates remain at
May’s crisis levels, a clear indication that markets are very nervous and ready
to sell off, as they have over the past weeks on news of Ireland’s latest bank
bailout and a Wall Street Journal article on how the EU bank stress tests
understated PIIGS bond exposure.
Despite Range Trading - Prominent Sell Signals Still
Alive On Thursday September 16, 2010, 12:35 pm EDT About a month ago, news about the ominous
Hindenburg Omen, terrible September/October and other prominent sell signals
were the big buzz around Wall Street. Has the recent rally and range bound
trading neutralized or even eliminated the bearish undercurrents? A look at
current sentiment would make you think so. Sentiment surveys show that
bullishness has soared and optimists are back in control (see chart below).But
are the optimists generally right? No. In fact, unfounded optimism is one of
the biggest investment traps and most effective bear market tricks. On April
16, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned that: 'The message conveyed by
the composite bullishness is unmistakably bearish. Most bulls have no clue why
they are bullish except for the fact that they feel the need to play the
momentum game. Sounds like 2000 and 2007 all over again.' When it comes to
investing, emotions tend to get in the way of making money. It takes an
opportunistic, yet realistic approach to profit in this market.
Parallels Between 2000, 2007, and Today
From a purely analytical point of view, the April ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter examined the 2000 and 2007 market tops and compared them with the
2010 price action, at a time when optimism was soaring sky-high. The parallels
between the 2000, 2007 and forming 2010 tops were striking, that's why the
newsletter concluded that: 'A comparison between the 2000 and 2007 double tops
to the current constellations shows that the market may roll over at any time.'
Similar to the January/April 2000 and July/October 2007 double tops, the April
2010 highs were preceded by a lower January top. But the parallels didn't stop
there.
Major Tops Followed by Decoy Rallies
Following the initial 2007 decline, the April, May 2008 rally rekindled new
hope and pushed the major indexes a la Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI), S&P (SNP:
^GSPC), and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) briefly above their 200-day moving average
(MA). Following the initial April 2010 decline, the July/August rally also
pushed the S&P briefly above the 200-day MA. Both, in 2008 and 2010,
the indexes were rebuffed by the 200-day MA. The failure to stay above the
200-day MA in May 2008 was followed by a 53.75% decline in the S&P 500.
Former performance leaders like the Financial Select Sector SPDRs (NYSEArca: XLF - News) and KBW Bank ETF (NYSEArca: KBE - News) tumbled 79%, the Technology
Sector SPDRs (NYSEArca: XLK - News) dropped 49%. Even conservative
sectors such as utilities (NYSEArca: XLU - News) and healthcare (NYSEArca: XLV - News) dropped another 35 - 45%. Like a
free diver who comes up for air, the market tends to rally to keep investors
engaged before the next leg down. The chart below - which plots bullish
advisor sentiment against the price of the S&P 500 from June 2007 -
September 2010, illustrates the market's cruel habit of spreading hope just
before the hammer drops. [chart]
It Happened Before
Since we are talking about prior market tops, we can't help but mention the
mother of all sucker rallies, which occurred in 1929/1930. Following the
initial 1929 meltdown, the 1930 rally recouped 50% of the previously lost
points. Ironically, the 1930 rally ended on April 16. The 2010 counter trend
rally ran its course on April 26. In addition to a near identical termination
date, the two rallies rekindled the same kind of bullish sentiment. Below are a
few headlines and statement from April 1930. Keep in mind that the Dow went on
to decline more than 80% thereafter. 'For the immediate future, the outlook is
bright' - Irving Fisher, Ph. D. in Economics 'I see nothing in the present
situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism.' - Andrew W. Mellon,
U. S. Secretary of the Treasury 'The depression is over' - Herbert Hoover,
President If you escaped the market in
time, you might be able to read the following April 2010 headlines with a fair
shot of humor and realize the irony: 'As job worries ease, will anything stop
the stock market?' – CNBC 'Dow 11,000 is only the beginning' - Wall Street
Journal 'Check the real estate: It is time to delve in' - Wall Street Journal
It Happened Recently
It's easy to dismiss any parallels to the Great Depression simply because it
happened 80 years ago. However, an 80% drop is nothing unusual and has been
seen recently. The Nasdaq (Nasdaq: QQQQ - News) peaked in 2000 and tumbled 78.4%
within less than two years. Much evidence suggests that the Nasdaq's woes are
not yet over with more losses and lower lows on the horizon. Oil prices tumbled
77% after topping at $147.3 a barrel in 2008. Both, the Nasdaq and oil prices
topped at a time when higher prices were a foregone conclusion. With regards to
oil, the expectation for higher fuel prices moved all major car manufacturers
to advertise and build low MPG cars. As soon as their commercials hit TVs, radios,
and newspapers across the country, oil and fuel prices started to drop like a
rock. Some still dismiss those declines as sector bubbles, not broad market
declines.
It Happened to an Entire Country
The Nikkei is Japan's version of the S&P 500 and covers hundreds of stocks.
In 1989, the Nikkei topped at 38,946. Since then, it has dropped over 80% to
below 8,000 (see chart below, published in the April 2010 ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter). [chart] Throughout this 20-year decline, the Nikkei had eleven
rallies of 20% or more and four that were 50% or more. In total, the Nikkei
rallied well over 250,000 rally points, yet it remains 76% below its 1989 peak.
The decline of Japan's stock market (NYSEArca: EWJ - News) and economy happened amidst a
global bull market. Imagine what can happen to the U.S. stock market during a
global recession spurred by European (NYSEArca: FEZ - News) debt woes and global stock market
(NYSEArca: EFA - News) weakness. It's human nature to
rationalize and invent reasons why something can't happen. It's the stock
market's nature to prove investors wrong. Based on parallels that aren't
farfetched by any means, a follow through of the post 2007 U.S. equity meltdown
is more than just a possibility.
Fundamentals, Technicals, Valuations, and History in Agreement
Investing is about putting the odds in your favor. There is no such thing as a
100% certain profit opportunity. However, there are high probability profit
opportunities where the odds of having a winning trade are high and the
potential reward is much higher than the potential risk. Such high probability
profit opportunities occur when as many indicators as possible point in the
same direction. Right now, there is a near unanimous consent between
fundamental and technical indicators, along with valuations and historic
patterns. The latest ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter includes a detailed analysis of various
market forecasting tools, along with a short, mid, and long-term outlook for
the U.S. stock market and a target range for the ultimate market bottom. Even
though the economic outlook is dim, realistic investors can feel optimistic
about the opportunities in the months and years ahead. ,
Go to following pages for
above links:
http://www.albertpeia.com/currentopics2ndqtr10108.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com
http://www.scribd.com/alpeia
http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm
You may post a comment on my blog on any topic: http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com
Yen hits 15-year high
vs dollar
Regional
Manufacturing Still Deteriorating
August
Foreclosures Highest on Record RealtyTrac, an online foreclosure sale site,
will release its monthly numbers on Thursday, but sources there confirm the
number of repossessions will come in just shy of 100,000 for the month.
U.S.
urges Arab states to drop israel nuclear treaty demand Reuters [ Oooooh! Wow! Sounds like a plan! … For world
conflagration … Another step toward nuclear prone middle east … israel should
be exempt because ….. ‘US –
Israel’s partner in crime, not a referee’ … You really can’t make this stuff up; the preposterous s***
coming out of america! ]The U.S. envoy to the UN atomic watchdog urged Arab
states to withdraw a resolution calling on Israel to sign an anti-nuclear arms
treaty, warning it would send a negative signal to Middle East peace talks. Israelis,
Palestinians already broaching tough topics in talks, envoy says (Washington
Post) ‘US –
Israel’s partner in crime, not a referee’ (Infowars.com) Israeli and Palestinian leaders are holding a new
round of direct talks. Bombshell:
Barack Obama conclusively outed as CIA creation Wayne Madsen |
Investigative journalist Wayne Madsen has discovered CIA files that document
the agency’s connections to the lives of Barack Obama and his mother, father,
grandmother, and stepfather.
O'Donnell's
win throws a challenge at the GOP [ Aw shucks!
Change just around the corner say the bipartisan incumbents… change afoot, like
wobama’s foot in his mouth / a** change …
Let’s get real … no real change is a-coming … but ‘hopium’ (previously
discussed) is a powerfully addictive drug. Let’s all awake from this hopium
induced stupor and read these government frauds the riot act! Defacto
bankrupt american politics are getting downright nasty (AP). Ask nancy
pelosi, ‘the wicked witch of the west’
( only a minute, this political ad by John Dennis is well done and very
funny) http://albertpeia.com/nancypelosiwickedwitchofthewest.flv
. ] By beating their candidate for the Senate seat in Delaware, the tea
party sends a message to the Republican establishment: You are not in
charge. Frustration with GOP pushed
win O'Donnell's win in the Delaware Senate
primary reflects voter sentiment toward party elders.
Stocks'
rise defies record Underestimating
the Risks of the Stock Market
Keep in mind, this is an election year and as good as it gets, as bad as
it is beyond the spun / fake market-frothing
data ] [Babak ‘If you spend
enough time trading and studying the markets you realize viscerally that
markets tend to fall and fall hard much more than they rise. We got a very good
example of this in the 2008 bear market where the S&P 500 index gave back
in about 18 months all the gains that had taken it almost 5 years to accumulate
(March 2003 to October 2007). The theoretical framework that many people use
and that which is still taught in finance classes across the globe continues to
assume that returns fall into a normal distribution. While it is useful to know
that modern portfolio theory and EMH are flimsy theories with no real world
applications, it doesn’t help us to recalibrate our instruments to just how
asymmetrical stock returns really are. To get at that answer, the research team
at Welton Investments compared the actual distribution of returns from the
S&P 500 index over the past 50 years with the expected risk based on a
Monte Carlo simulation. The results are shown in the chart below: [ chart Source:
Tail Risk ] This
study shows that investors continuously and severely underestimated negative
returns. In fact, going by rolling quarterly losses of 20% or more, investors
experienced 5.3 times more of these “fat tail” events than that accounted for
by the expectations based on a normal distribution. That difference is huge!
Knowing this historical reality, investors have two choices: either don’t play
the game (get out of stocks) or play but have a safety net handy for the
inevitable fall …’ ]Defying September's
track record of being unkind to investors, the stock market has shot up for the
past two weeks as investors have grown less fearful the economy will slip into
another recession.
O'Donnell's
win throws a challenge at the GOP [ Aw shucks!
Change just around the corner say the bipartisan incumbents… change afoot, like
wobama’s foot in his mouth / a** change …
Let’s get real … no real change is a-coming … but ‘hopium’ (previously
discussed) is a powerfully addictive drug. Let’s all awake from this hopium
induced stupor and read these government frauds the riot act! Defacto
bankrupt american politics are getting downright nasty (AP). Ask nancy
pelosi, ‘the wicked witch of the west’
( only a minute, this political ad by John Dennis is well done and very
funny) http://albertpeia.com/nancypelosiwickedwitchofthewest.flv
. ] By beating their candidate for the Senate seat in Delaware, the tea
party sends a message to the Republican establishment: You are not in
charge. Frustration
with GOP pushed win
O'Donnell's win in the Delaware Senate primary reflects voter sentiment
toward party elders.
Stocks'
rise defies record Underestimating
the Risks of the Stock Market
Keep in mind, this is an election year and as good as it gets, as bad as
it is beyond the spun / fake market-frothing
data ] [Babak ‘If you spend
enough time trading and studying the markets you realize viscerally that
markets tend to fall and fall hard much more than they rise. We got a very good
example of this in the 2008 bear market where the S&P 500 index gave back
in about 18 months all the gains that had taken it almost 5 years to accumulate
(March 2003 to October 2007). The theoretical framework that many people use
and that which is still taught in finance classes across the globe continues to
assume that returns fall into a normal distribution. While it is useful to know
that modern portfolio theory and EMH are flimsy theories with no real world
applications, it doesn’t help us to recalibrate our instruments to just how
asymmetrical stock returns really are. To get at that answer, the research team
at Welton Investments compared the actual distribution of returns from the
S&P 500 index over the past 50 years with the expected risk based on a
Monte Carlo simulation. The results are shown in the chart below: [ chart Source:
Tail Risk ] This
study shows that investors continuously and severely underestimated negative
returns. In fact, going by rolling quarterly losses of 20% or more, investors
experienced 5.3 times more of these “fat tail” events than that accounted for
by the expectations based on a normal distribution. That difference is huge!
Knowing this historical reality, investors have two choices: either don’t play
the game (get out of stocks) or play but have a safety net handy for the
inevitable fall …’ ]Defying September's
track record of being unkind to investors, the stock market has shot up for the
past two weeks as investors have grown less fearful the economy will slip into
another recession.
Government Bans Tea Party From Celebrating U.S. Constitution Local government representatives in an Ohio town have taken it upon themselves to prohibit a Tea Party celebration of the US Constitution, prompting a lawsuit over restrictions on First Amendment rights.
Empire
State Manufacturing Falls in September
Technical Resistance: Here We Go Again Hui ‘…The odds seem to
favor another downleg for a couple of reasons.
First of all, investor sentiment has gotten incredibly bullish
in the space of a couple of weeks, which is contrarian bearish.
More important for the intermediate term, the market is facing a number of
macro headwinds of economic weakness starting in 4Q. John Hussman noted in his
latest weekly comment [emphasis added]: As I've noted frequently
in recent commentaries, the typical lag between deterioration in say, the ECRI
Weekly Leading Index and the ISM Purchasing Managers Index is about 13 weeks,
and sometimes longer. The typical lag with respect to new claims for
unemployment is about 23-26 weeks (which puts the likely window of
deterioration at about the October - November time frame), and the
typical lag with respect to the payroll unemployment report is, not
surprisingly, about 4 weeks beyond that.
Uber-bear Albert Edwards put it more bluntly:The
current situation reminds me of mid 2007. Investors then were content to stick
their heads into very deep sand and ignore the fact that The Great Unwind had
clearly begun. But in August and September 2007, even though the wheels were
clearly falling off the global economy, the S&P still managed to rally 15%!
The recent reaction to data suggests the market is in a similar deluded state
of mind. Yet again, equity investors refuse to accept they are now locked in a
Vulcan death grip and are about to fall unconscious…’
The Dow Is Overbought on Its Daily Chart
To
Dip or Double-Dip? Janjigian There
has been a lot of talk lately about whether or not we will have a double-dip
recession. I have long been in the camp that says a double-dip is a real
possibility. I believe the probability for a second recession is higher now
than it was last March. But how does one actually assign a number to this
probability? The economists Nouriel Roubini and Martin Feldstein are perhaps
the most bearish on the economy. They say the chances of a second recession are
about one in three. This means they believe that if the economy were to
experience the same exact conditions it is experiencing now hundreds of times,
one-third of those times would result in a recession. Another way to look at is
that the probability that we will not have a second recession is about 67%. In
other words, even the most bearish economists believe there is a much better
chance that we will avoid a second recession than there is that we will
actually have one … [ Hey, come on! If they only were the most bearish on the
economy
To
Dip or Double-Dip? Janjigian There
has been a lot of talk lately about whether or not we will have a double-dip
recession. I have long been in the camp that says a double-dip is a real
possibility. I believe the probability for a second recession is higher now
than it was last March.
Economists Herald New Great
Depression The world is currently
experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression, according to a
prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others now forecasting
ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.) , and my position and that of demographer Dent (This is a global
depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up
move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has
been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with
great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell
into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam /
fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will
not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are
criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.
Krugman: It's All Downhill From
Here Cullen Roche Love him or hate him
Paul Krugman has been awfully right with regards to the macro picture in the
last few years. He’s one of the rare economists who had the foresight to see
the housing bubble and the likelihood of economic downturn that would result
from it. Krugman recently caused a stir when he said the US economy was headed
for the third depression. He isn’t back down from that outlook
Industrial
output growth slows (Reuters) WASHINGTON (Reuters) – ‘U.S. industrial output slowed
last month and a regional measure of factory activity touched a 14-month low in
September, pointing to a cooling in manufacturing as the boost from an
inventory build-up fades. The reports on Wednesday were consistent with other
data suggesting the U.S. economy is stuck in a soft spot, but they also showed
the manufacturing sector continued to expand and
offered nothing to suggest a new recession was brewing. "We have a sharp
slowdown, but that doesn't look like it's going to develop into an outright
collapse," said Paul Ashworth, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics
in Toronto. Industrial production rose 0.2 percent in August, Federal Reserve
data showed, matching economists' forecasts for a sharp slowdown
from July when unusually strong auto manufacturing lifted output. July's gain
was revised down to 0.6 percent from 1 percent …’
Defacto bankrupt american politics are getting downright
nasty. Ask nancy
pelosi, ‘the wicked witch of the west’
http://albertpeia.com/nancypelosiwickedwitchofthewest.flv
.
Drudgereport: Doomsday warnings of US apocalypse gain ground...
US poverty on track to post record gain
under Obama...
Last minute aid helps city dodge default...
NYC
Disaster On Primary Day; Machine Glitches Cause Chaos...
Bloomberg
Blasts...
Feds
probing...
US
troops continue combat missions in Iraq, despite Obama's end-of-war speech...
Poll
workers being used to inflate jobs totals?
Retirement
on Hold: American Workers $6 Trillion Short...
REPUBLICAN ACCUSES WHITE HOUSE OF 'CLASS WARFARE'...
Paul says GOP shares blame for deficits...
Kerry flip-flops on tax cuts...
Muslims protest Quran-burning plan...
Florida pastor calls it off...
Christians rip pages from Muslim holy book in front of
White House...
Man ignites Quran near Ground Zero...
VIDEO...
Mosque opponents, supporters face off in downtown
NYC...
OBAMA: 'We are not and never will be at war
with Islam'...
'Tea
party' favorites score in DE, NY...
Establishment
Freaks...
'One
nation under revolt'...
Christine
Smacks Rove: 'So-Called Political Guru'...
CASH POURS IN FOR
O'DONNELL; $500,000 IN ONE DAY...
Upsets...
RESULTS...
WIRE...
IN:
RANGEL SURVIVES CHALLENGE...
OUT: DC
MAYOR VOTED DOWN IN UPSET...
HANGING:
DINGELL WARNS DONORS HE COULD LOSE...
Dems
gamble by shifting fire to Boehner...
Bill
Clinton: New-look GOP makes Bush look liberal!
POLL:
Only 25% of public trusts gov't...
The
Crash, Obama and Disappearing Dem Majority...
Jobless
strain Social Security's disability program (Washington Post) [ Jobless?
Strain? Disability? If only that were the only problem for the debacle that
will be called ‘social security’. Indeed, even at full employment, those
worthless iou’s will still be worthless as this typical capital hill political
math project will eventually, as with ponzi schemes generally, end very badly.
]
More
banks missing TARP dividend payments [ Isn’t it true as never before in the
short history of defacto bankrupt america, that nothing succeeds in america
quite like a lack of success? ] Bank Failure Friday
Continues at Seeking Alpha ‘…Bank Failure Friday
continues with the total number of failures for 2010 now up to 119 on the way
to 150 to 200, as the third quarter total ended September 10th at 33. During
“The Great Credit Crunch” the FDIC only closed 25 banks during all of 2008. In
2009 the FDIC picked up the pace with 140 bank failures with a peak of 50 in
the third quarter of 2009. So far in 2010 the FDIC closed 41 banks in the first
quarter, another 45 in the second quarter, and so far 33 for the third quarter.
With 119 bank failures so far in 2010 the total for “The Great Credit Crunch”
is up to 284 continuing its path to my predicted 500 to 800 by the end of 2012
into 2013 …]
Pearlstein:
A bold new breed of bank regulators (Washington Post) [ Wow! Gee! I had
always viewed Mr. Pearlstein as a grounded kind of guy. You know … somewhat
realistic … I guess I was wrong ‘cause who’s kidding whom? Criminal
prosecutions, jail, fines, and disgorgement are the only way to maximize
regulatory effectiveness, presently and prospectively. As of now, it pays for
the predisposed frauds to take what currently is miniscule chance of
prosecution for what have been and remain huge personal and corporate gains. Handcuffs For Wall Street, Not
Happy Talk Zach Carter | The fraud allegations that have emerged over the past year are not
restricted to a few bad apples at shady companies — they involve some of the
largest players in global finance. Finance groups: Long transition
to ease new bank rules (Washington Post) [ Basel’s all the rage … Riiiiight! Bonkers for Basel, the
thing in rally vogue this day … but,
not Basil as in Basil Rathbone of super sleuth Sherlock Holmes film fame who’d
make short shrift of this fraudulent wall street contagion that has swept over
Europe in a manner to rightfully earn the moniker ‘eventual black Friday
plague’ … and then there’s the ‘higher oil price’ part of the suckers’ rally.
We can certainly expect Rosanne Rosanna Danna formerly of SNL fame, as night
follows the day, to chime in with a reminder as her mama always used to say,
‘it’s always something’ … but unfortunately, that somethin’ is not
reality. YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]:
‘Broad-based buying on the back of Basel III boosted stocks to their fourth
straight gain, or seventh advance in eight sessions. Still, participation
remained unimpressive ... ‘ AP Business Highlights
‘… Banks get years to
adjust to new global rules BASEL,
Switzerland (AP) -- Bankers and analysts said new global rules could mean less
money available to lend to businesses and consumers, but praised a decision to
leave plenty of time -- until 2019 -- before the financial stability
requirements come into full force’ ] The requirements adopted by the
Basel Committee on Banking Supervision fall short of what's needed to prevent
another financial crisis. ]
Buried Alive
- Prominent Sell Signals
Is the Stock
Market Safe? [
This time the consensus is correct, in a ‘fish in a barrel’ kind of way! ]‘In a word, no. That’s the general
consensus found in a survey of individual investors done by AP and CNBC this
week. As if dealing with two major bear markets since the turn of the century
wasn’t enough, all the talk about high frequency trading and the May 6th
"Flash Crash" seems to have pushed individual investors over the edge
in terms of their comfort level with the stock market. In fact, according to an
AP/CNBC poll, 55% of those surveyed believe the stock market is fair only to
some investors. The bottom line of this particular survey is that investors are
now wary about the idea of using the stock market as a way to invest for
retirement. Instead, the survey found that the vast majority of individual
investors continue to pump unprecedented amounts of money into what many
believe is the most overvalued asset class on the planet – government bonds.
One result of the 10-plus year secular bear market in stocks is the gradual
erosion of the public’s interest and confidence in stocks as an investment. Of
course this HAS happened before. Anyone recall the 1982 cover of Time magazine
with the title “The Death of Equities?” Although the cyclical bull market that
began in March 2009 remains intact, the public has been pulling money out of
the market on a monthly basis. Since January 2008, the Investment Company
Institute reports that a total of $244 billion has been withdrawn from US equity
funds. Yet at the same time, a total of more than $589 billion has poured into
US bond mutual funds, which is an unparalleled amount. It appears that the
"Flash Crash" may have been the straw that broke the camel’s back.
For example, in the 11 weeks prior to May 6th the public pumped a strong $26.6
billion into equity mutual funds. This is hardly surprising since during that
time the market was rising steadily and had gained more than 70% in the past 12
months. However, in the 16 weeks since the "Flash Crash," investors
have been running scared. In fact, Investment Company Institute reports that
the public has pulled money out of US equity funds each and every week since,
with cumulative withdrawals now totaling $55.9 billion. Thus, it would appear
that the market’s recent volatility has caused the investing public to lose
confidence in the market. The AP/CNBC poll found that 61% of those surveyed
felt the volatility has made them less confident about buying and selling
stocks. There is also a widespread perception is that the market is rigged or
unfair to the little guy. Nearly 90% of the survey respondents whose portfolios
are less than $50,000 said the market is unfair to small investors. In
addition, the public doesn’t seem to have much faith in the administration to
fix the situation in the market. The poll found that just 8% expressed strong
confidence in federal regulators while 50% expressed little-to-no confidence in
those tasked with overseeing the markets. Does this mean it is time to give up on
the stock market as an investment vehicle? We would respond with a resounding
“no!” The trick is to understand that the game has changed. After an 18-year
bull market, the tide has turned. As such, investors actually have to do
something besides putting money into any old mutual fund and closing their
eyes. Disclosure: No positions’
Handcuffs For Wall Street, Not
Happy Talk Zach Carter | The fraud allegations that have emerged over the past year are not
restricted to a few bad apples at shady companies — they involve some of the
largest players in global finance.
Hatzius: The Risks Are Still to
the Downside
Gates
starts to outline cuts to save $100 billion for defense (Washington Post ) [ Oooooh …
sounds like a plan! No, not gates’ only slightly less bankrupt nation plan over
5 years which bearly covers the interest on the trillion plus for the wars; but
rather, Karzai’s plan for u.s. companies extended to u.s. presence, period! ]
Defense Secretary Robert Gates on Tuesday said the Pentagon must get "more
bang for its buck and shift its focus to the military's needs for the future." Karzai wants private security firms out of
Afghanistan: KARZAI WANTS COMPANIES OUT U.S. calls 4-month deadline 'very
challenging' (Washington Post) One too many civilian
killed. Maybe they figured out that american non-strategy employing the
Hegelian methodology of creating problems that American firms can solve. Doomed
to failure, they eventually catch on. The bushes were famed for same but wobama
has foolishly been no slouch in this regard.
Cuba to cut 500,000 workers,
reform salaries (Washington Post) [ Boy, when Castro said communism
wasn’t working for them anymore, he wasn’t kidding! No gloating for defacto
bankrupt, pervasively corrupt america which is a far cry from capitalism and
but a whisper from collapse itself.]
Banks miss TARP payments
(Washington Post) [ Sounds like a plan! … Bank Failure Friday
Continues at Seeking Alpha ‘…Bank Failure Friday
continues with the total number of failures for 2010 now up to 119 on the way
to 150 to 200, as the third quarter total ended September 10th at 33. During
“The Great Credit Crunch” the FDIC only closed 25 banks during all of 2008. In
2009 the FDIC picked up the pace with 140 bank failures with a peak of 50 in
the third quarter of 2009. So far in 2010 the FDIC closed 41 banks in the first
quarter, another 45 in the second quarter, and so far 33 for the third quarter.
With 119 bank failures so far in 2010 the total for “The Great Credit Crunch”
is up to 284 continuing its path to my predicted 500 to 800 by the end of 2012
into 2013 … (see rest of article infra)]
Doomsday warnings of US
apocalypse gain ground AFP
| Economists peddling dire warnings that the world’s number one economy is on
the brink of collapse.
A subtler tack to fight Afghan
corruption? (Washington Post) [ How about a not so subtler tack to fight corruption starting
right here in the u.s. of a. where corruption and crime are pervasive and in
fact, at the root of the Afghanistan problems, from american reinvigorated
heroin trade to bribery attendant thereto to killing civilians, etc.. Defacto Bankrupt, Meaningfully Lawless, War Criminal Nation
america, the leader of nations … in crime:
Though having but 5% of the world’s population, america can
boast 76% of the world’s serial killers, followed by Europe with England/UK
then Germany leading the way for the eu [excerpt, 6 minute video, Serial Killers: Real Life
Hannibal Lechters http://www.albertpeia.com/realifeamericaserialkillers.mpg (as is consistent with crime generally,
see infra)]. Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive
(defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of
the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern
emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed
employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in
this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense
( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
) ]:
Rank |
|||
# 1
|
11,877,218 |
|
|
# 2
|
6,523,706 |
|
|
# 3
|
6,507,394 |
|
… ]
Doomsday
warnings of US apocalypse gain ground AFP | Economists peddling dire warnings that the world’s
number one economy is on the brink of collapse.
Bank Failure Friday Continues at Seeking
Alpha ‘…Bank Failure Friday continues with the total number of
failures for 2010 now up to 119 on the way to 150 to 200, as the third quarter
total ended September 10th at 33. During “The Great Credit Crunch” the FDIC
only closed 25 banks during all of 2008. In 2009 the FDIC picked up the pace
with 140 bank failures with a peak of 50 in the third quarter of 2009. So far
in 2010 the FDIC closed 41 banks in the first quarter, another 45 in the second
quarter, and so far 33 for the third quarter. With 119 bank failures so far in
2010 the total for “The Great Credit Crunch” is up to 284 continuing its path
to my predicted 500 to 800 by the end of 2012 into 2013.
The
failed bank was publicly-traded Horizon Bank (HZNB.OB), which had huge
overexposures to C&D and CRE loans with risk ratios of 358% and 1769%
versus the ignored regulatory guidelines of 100% and 300% of risk-based
capital. The commitment pipeline of commercial real estate loans was 99% funded
as “extend and pretend” caused this failure. The consolidator bank has been
used before by the FDIC; Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK) which has a HOLD rating according to
ValuEngine.
Here
are some statistics from the FDIC for the Second Quarter 2010: There were 45
bank failures in the second quarter, and we ended the quarter with the number
of FDIC-insured financial institutions declining to 7,893, of which 1306 are
publicly-traded.
·
1172 of all community banks (14.8%) are overexposed to Construction &
Development Loans.
·
1432 or 18.1% are overexposed to Nonfarm / Nonresidential real estate loans.
·
2504 or 31.7% are thus overexposed to Commercial Real Estate loans.
·
1317 or 16.7% have a real estate loan pipeline that’s 100% funded.
·
2622 or 33.2% have a pipeline that’s between 80% and 100% funded.
·
3939 of 49.9% of all banks have a pipeline that’s 80% or more funded. So
half the community banks in America remain overleveraged to Commercial Real
Estate and the possible losses remain about $1.5 trillion.
Publicly-Traded
Banks:
·
293 of the 1306 publicly-traded banks are overexposed to C&D loans
·
394 are overexposed to Nonfarm / Nonresidential real estate loans.
·
687 or 52.6% of the publicly-traded banks are thus overexposed to Commercial
Real Estate loans. We publish this list as the ValuEngine List of Problem
Banks.
·
234 publicly-traded banks have a real estate loan portfolio that’s 100% funded.
·
463 have a real estate loan portfolio between 80% and 100% funded.
·
697 thus have significant real estate loan pipeline stress.
Problem
Banks at the end of the Second Quarter versus the First Quarter:
·
Given
the waves of bank failures the total assets among the 686 Publicly-Traded
Problem Banks declined to $135.9 billion from $164.7 billion in the first
quarter. C&D loans declined to $12.7 billion from $16.4 billion with a CRE
loan pipeline steady at 78.1% versus 78.0%.
·
Assets
among the 91 Deadbeat Banks, (those in arrears on making TARP dividend
payments), totals $99.9 billion with C&D loans at $10.9 billion and a CRE
pipeline of 80.9%.
·
Assets
among failed publicly-traded banks increased to $122.5 billion from $116.7
billion in the first quarter. C&D loans increased to $22.3 billion from
$21.5 billion. The CRE loan pipeline increased a tick to 90.4% from 90.3%.
Assets among banks with a CRE pipeline
of 80% or more funded increased to $3.84 trillion including $121.3 billion in
C&D loans. The average pipeline for 3939 banks is 92.0%. Among this list
are four big banks that will likely see waves of write-offs in upcoming
quarters.
·
JP
Morgan Chase (JPM)
with $1.72 trillion in assets has a pipeline of 80%.
·
SunTrust
Banks (STI) has $160.5 billion in assets with an 83%
pipeline.
·
BB&T
Corp (BBT) has $149.2 billion in assets with an 84%
pipeline.
·
Fifth
Third Bank (FITB) has
100.0 billion in assets with an 84% pipeline.
Disclosure: No positions’
U.S. Trade Deficit Still Growing
Defacto Bankrupt, Meaningfully Lawless, War Criminal Nation
america, the leader of nations … in crime:
Though having but 5% of the world’s population, america can
boast 76% of the world’s serial killers, followed by Europe with England/UK
then Germany leading the way for the eu [excerpt, 6 minute video, Serial
Killers: Real Life Hannibal Lechters http://www.albertpeia.com/realifeamericaserialkillers.mpg (as is consistent with crime generally,
see infra)]. Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive
(defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of
the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern
emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed
employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in
this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense
( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
) ]:
Rank |
|||
# 1
|
11,877,218 |
|
|
# 2
|
6,523,706 |
|
|
# 3
|
6,507,394 |
|
|
# 4
|
3,771,850 |
|
|
# 5
|
2,952,370 |
|
|
# 6
|
2,853,739 |
|
|
# 7
|
2,683,849 |
|
|
# 8
|
2,516,918 |
|
|
# 9
|
2,231,550 |
|
|
# 10
|
1,764,630 |
|
|
# 11
|
1,543,220 |
|
|
# 12
|
1,516,029 |
|
|
# 13
|
1,422,863 |
|
|
# 14
|
1,404,229 |
|
|
# 15
|
1,340,529 |
|
|
# 16
|
1,234,784 |
|
|
# 17
|
973,548 |
|
|
# 18
|
923,271 |
|
|
# 19
|
593,997 |
|
|
# 20
|
565,108 |
|
|
# 21
|
553,594 |
|
|
# 22
|
552,411 |
|
|
# 23
|
520,194 |
|
|
# 24
|
491,026 |
|
|
# 25
|
427,230 |
|
|
# 26
|
420,782 |
|
|
# 27
|
372,341 |
|
|
# 28
|
351,153 |
|
|
# 29
|
330,071 |
|
|
# 30
|
312,204 |
|
|
# 31
|
307,631 |
|
|
# 32
|
286,482 |
|
|
# 33
|
283,702 |
|
|
# 34
|
236,165 |
|
|
# 35
|
218,360 |
|
|
# 36
|
214,192 |
|
|
# 37
|
167,173 |
|
|
# 38
|
Peru: |
161,621 |
|
# 39
|
148,915 |
|
|
# 40
|
134,010 |
|
|
# 41
|
132,867 |
|
|
# 42
|
130,375 |
|
|
# 43
|
107,373 |
|
|
# 44
|
102,783 |
|
|
# 45
|
101,853 |
|
|
# 46
|
92,646 |
|
|
# 47
|
85,776 |
|
|
# 48
|
84,599 |
|
|
# 49
|
81,697 |
|
|
# 50
|
81,274 |
|
|
# 51
|
80,592 |
|
|
# 52
|
60,242 |
|
|
# 53
|
59,426 |
|
|
# 54
|
57,799 |
|
|
# 55
|
49,329 |
|
|
# 56
|
44,762 |
|
|
# 57
|
40,263 |
|
|
# 58
|
39,188 |
|
|
# 59
|
38,620 |
|
|
# 60
|
36,302 |
|
|
# 61
|
35,943 |
|
|
# 62
|
31,138 |
|
|
# 63
|
26,046 |
|
|
# 64
|
24,066 |
|
|
# 65
|
21,058 |
|
|
# 66
|
19,814 |
|
|
# 67
|
19,350 |
|
|
# 68
|
18,301 |
|
|
# 69
|
17,023 |
|
|
# 70
|
15,520 |
|
|
# 71
|
15,029 |
|
|
# 72
|
13,292 |
|
|
# 73
|
13,023 |
|
|
# 74
|
12,048 |
|
|
# 75
|
Oman: |
11,782 |
|
# 76
|
8,872 |
|
|
# 77
|
7,857 |
|
|
# 78
|
7,026 |
|
|
# 79
|
5,838 |
|
|
# 80
|
5,303 |
|
|
# 81
|
4,297 |
|
|
# 82
|
751 |
|
|
|
Total: |
63,531,202 |
|
|
Weighted average: |
774,770.8 |
|
DEFINITION: Note:
Crime statistics are often
better indicators of prevalence of law enforcement and willingness to report crime (I believe, and facts support, crime in
america to be substantially under-reported and under-prosecuted owing to
pervasive corruption, arbitrary enforcement of the law, etc.) than actual
prevalence.
SOURCE: The Eighth United Nations Survey on Crime Trends and
the Operations of Criminal Justice Systems (2002) (United Nations Office on
Drugs and Crime, Centre for International Crime Prevention)
Drudgereport:
Doomsday
warnings of US apocalypse gain ground...
US poverty on track to post record gain under Obama...
Last
minute aid helps city dodge default...
REPUBLICAN
ACCUSES WHITE HOUSE OF 'CLASS WARFARE'...
Paul
says GOP shares blame for deficits...
Kerry
flip-flops on tax cuts...
Muslims
protest Quran-burning plan...
Florida
pastor calls it off...
Christians
rip pages from Muslim holy book in front of White House...
Man
ignites Quran near Ground Zero...
VIDEO...
Mosque
opponents, supporters face off in downtown NYC...
OBAMA: 'We are not and never will be at war with Islam'...
When Will the Bad Dream
End? Anthony
Gregory | It has been nine
whole years since 9/11, and it is starting to look like the “post-9/11″
insanity has become a permanent feature of the American landscape.
Defense
cuts could slow D.C. economy for years (Washington
Post) [ Well, giving credence to the 9/11 Truthers and a reason why the attacks
were allowed to go forward and even in part why those mossad agents on the
banks of the Hudson in Weehawken, n.j. were cheering as the twin towers were in
flames, war, both legal and illegal when they’re greedy enough which is almost
always, and war profiteering specifically, is very big business; but alas, more
destructive, both home and abroad, than constructive in both real and economic
terms; and then of course, the geopolitical toll which will linger far longer
than the ephemeral short-term gains for the unscrupulous few. ( I had a
full-professor who was also a CPA for my Cost Accounting Course as required for
my MBA in Finance, evening program, NYU GBA. He referenced his own military
experience in pointing out the folly of much of the military budgetary /
spending process in terms of his duties which included each day firing off
munitions (small mortars, ‘rockets’, etc.) at nothing whatsoever at all, if
only to make sure at the end of the month (longer periods) more munitions /
spending would have to be budgeted and purchased and so on. They’ve certainly come
a long way in the ‘budgetary / spending’ process by creating wars to maintain
same. This can never be justified; and, after all, the nation’s defacto
bankrupt. ). What isn’t corrupt / fraudulent in washington d.c., or in America
generally, for that matter? ] After
surging during post-9/11 era, the industry now braces for a major contraction
and layoffs that could produce a significant drag on region.
Unemployment
Claims Not as Bullish as They Seem (Why?
Kudrna:‘The Labor Department reported
Thursday morning that new claims for unemployment dropped a seasonally adjusted
27,000 to 451,000. Unexpected bullish news, right? The markets immediately
gapped-up on this information as the bulls found good reason to buy. Unexpected
positive news is almost always met with a bullish move north as it’s rarely
priced in. However, a useful tidbit of information about that shockingly large
drop came out after the gap-up. Bloomberg reported that nine states didn't file
claims data to the Labor Department in Washington because of the Labor Day
holiday earlier this week. California and Virginia estimated their figures and
the U.S. government estimated the other seven. Coincidence in the large drop or
not? We will see when the next revision comes out but usually those revisions
fail to make headlines as we are already focusing on future claims. This has
been a great cover-up method for a long time…’
How Government
Reporting Will Intensify the Inevitable , On Friday September 10, 2010,
12:41 pm EDT ‘Natural carbonation
keeps a champagne bottle under constant pressure. The more you shake the
bottle, the higher the pressure gets and the further the cork will eventually
fly. Figuratively speaking, the government has been shaking the bottle. Watch
out when the cork pops. On August 10, the Associated Press reported that the
Federal Reserve has found a new trick to jumpstart the economy. Below is the
full quote that shows why we probably can't expect unbiased assessments coming
out of Washington, or the Fed's corner: 'The Federal Reserve policymakers are
pondering ways to jumpstart the economic recovery. The trick: making sure
whatever they do or say doesn't rattle Wall Street.' Some of the recent
government statistics have been 'interesting' no doubt, and we know the
administration has spent trillions in an attempt to lift the economy, but would
it go as far as actually fudging statistics? We'll examine potential cases for
'data spiking' in a moment, but for now we'll take a look at one of the most
popular government statistics, which is misleading to say the least.
GDP - Like a Flag in the Wind
GDP reports are prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and are a
science all in itself. GDP reports are often revised. The 'advance' estimate is
published at the end of the first month following the close of a quarter. In
addition to the 'advance' estimate, there are first and second revisions called
the 'preliminary' and 'final' estimates. The 'final' estimate is reviewed
annually, usually in July. Once every several years, the BEA reviews all data
back to 1929. On July 30, the BEA lowered Q2 2010 growth from an estimated 2.7%
to 2.4%. The real GDP for all three previous years was revised as well. It was
lowered by 0.2% for 2007, it was lowered by 0.6% for 2008 and it was lowered by
0.4% for 2009 (see chart below)[chart]. In percentage terms, the real GDP for
2007 was revised down from 2.5% growth to 2.3%. The 2008 decrease was lowered
from 1.9% to 2.8%, and 2009 growth was revised up from a 0.1% to a 0.2%
increase. In essence, the BEA proved that the recession was (or is) much deeper
and the alleged recovery much weaker than previously reported. Imagine if you
would have based your 2007 and 2008 investment decisions on GDP reports. But
wait, there is more. On August 27, the BEA lowered the Q2 2010 GDP growth from
2.4% to 1.6%. The financial media, however, applauded the reduction since
the final 1.6 number was still higher than the 1.4% economists expected. Stocks
rallied over 2% that day.
Unemployment Numbers - Not Deserving of Your Trust
Unemployment in August increased from 9.5% to 9.6%, but that's
ok. Why? According to the financial media, the increase of unemployment was due
to an increase in labor force. An estimated 6.6 million students will be
graduating and joining the labor force this year. An increasing labor force is
a reality, not an excuse to rationalize higher unemployment numbers. The real
unemployment rate (U-6) reported by the BLS (but neglected by the financial
media) jumped from 16.5% to 16.7%. Nevertheless, stocks rallied nearly 3% when
unemployment figures were released on September 3rd. According to the BLS, the
manufacturing sector lost 27,000 jobs in August. This, however, contradicts the
positive August ISM manufacturing report, which rose from 55.5% to 56.3%.
Here is the analysis from the Institute for Supply Management: 'A PMI in excess
of 42 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the
overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates growth for the 16th consecutive
month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector
for the 13th consecutive month.' If you ask the unemployed, it doesn't feel
like the manufacturing sector is improving.
Changing Rules to Accommodate Growth
Amidst the biggest financial meltdown since the Great Depression, the
administration had to act quickly. The sheer amount of toxic assets overwhelmed
the banking (NYSEArca: KBE - News)
and financial sectors (NYSEArca: XLF - News),
which led to the fall of Lehman Brothers and credit contraction around the
globe (NYSEArca: EFA - News).
It was impossible to eliminate trillions of bad loans or revive the ailing real
estate market (NYSEArca: IYR - News).
It was impossible to prop up faltering sectors like consumer discretionary
(NYSEArca: XLY - News)
and technology (NYSEArca: XLK - News).
In short, it was impossible to change reality. It was, however, possible to
change the prevailing perception and hide the root problems. In fact, it wasn't
just possible; it proved to be fairly easy. The government simply urged the
Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) to change some rules. On April 2,
2009, the FASB changed Rule 157. The ripple effect caused by massive real
estate losses suffered by the 'too big to fail' banks (NYSEArca: IYF
- News),
as well as regional banks (NYSEArca: KRE
- News),
threatened the integrity of the entire system. The 157 Rule change allowed
banks to park all their losses in a bucket called other comprehensive income
(OCI). OCI appears on the balance sheet, but not on the income statement and
thus does not affect earnings. In late 2009 and early 2010, banks exceeded
their earnings expectations - at least on paper - which created the perception
that the economy was recovering. As it turns out, the timing for the Rule 157
change was perfect and coincided with the biggest stock market rally in recent
history. A 50%+ run in the Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI), S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), and
Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) intensified the perception that the economy was on the
mend. Before the accounting rule change and other government efforts, the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter predicted the biggest rally since the October 2007
all-time highs. Via the March 2nd Trend Change Alert, the newsletter advised to
close out previously recommended short positions (some gained 100% and more)
and buy long and leveraged ETFs, many of which gained 50%, 100% or more.
Back to the Future
All was well until April 2010. Prior to the April highs, Mr. Bernanke, Mr.
Geithner, and the President were campaigning for their fair share of credit for
rescuing and reviving the country. Rather than examining and disclosing some of
the government's questionable methods, the media jumped on the bandwagon and
tickled the alleged 'saviors' egos. By doing so, the pressure in the champagne
bottle was increased. More investors bought stocks under the mistaken view the
economy had improved. This increased the pool of stock owners and the pipeline
of sellers. As per the most recent GDP numbers, investors found out that the
state of the economy is worse than previously thought. Furthermore, the
government has lost credibility and some of its associated ability to inflate
stock market confidence. Watch out, once the cork blows! Investors
leaving the market could send prices falling as fast as champagne gushing out
of a bottle. In fact, this exodus probably started already. On April 16,
the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted that: 'The cork seems to have popped.
Reality is setting in. The pieces are in place for a major decline.' Following
the April highs, the ensuing decline erased eight months worth of gains in a
mere 22 trading days. An initial wave of somewhat critical media reports
quickly faded as the stock market stabilized. Sideways trading tends to calm
the nerves and get investors re-engaged before the hammer drops again. What's
the moral of the story? Faulty
government data and trend-following media reports tend to distort the real
picture and postpone and intensify the inevitable.
The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
combines the analysis of various indicators with common sense and
out-of-the-box thinking to formulate a short, mid, and long-term forecast.’
U.S.
drops in competitiveness ( Washington Post ) [ Fourth place for pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america?
I don’t think so; not in their wildest dreams, and there’s a lot of that in
america these days, but little else. Reality says america’s place should be in the
twenties at best.
Drudgereport: Thousands of Afghans protest
Quran-burning plan...
Tennessee preacher to burn
Quran...
Topeka, Kansas church vows
burning...
Protester plans to burn on
Wyoming's Capitol steps...
FLASHBACK: Muslims Burn
Bibles and Destroy Crosses...
Ground Zero imam
ignores pastor's two-hour deadline...
U.S.
drops in competitiveness ( Washington Post ) [ Fourth place for pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america?
I don’t think so; not in their wildest dreams, and there’s a lot of that in
america these days, but little else. Reality says america’s place should be in
the twenties at best. Previous: U.S.
drops in competitiveness
(Washington Post) [ Singapore, Sweden, … ? Don’t make me laugh! From defacto bankrupt, meaningfully lawless
america’s perspective, this fallen ranking was a gift and one must be asking,
what were they smoking (or whose money were they taking?) and is the rest of
the world really that bad off? ] Large
deficits and a weakened financial system make the U.S. less competitive in the
global economy, according to World Economic Forum's new ranking. Sweden
Is A Better Place To Do Business Than The U.S. – [Well, that part is true, but
…]. ‘…Sweden, by contrast, has
“the world’s most transparent and efficient public institutions, with very low
levels of corruption and undue influence.” Which loosely translated from
wonk-speak sounds like, “You’re better off dealing with honest socialists than
crony capitalists.”’ [ True enough, but I still don’t buy it (the rankings),
especially america’s fourth place (as opposed to lower) ranking.]
Yeah! The lack of
prosecutions and teeth therein has led to continued and bolder frauds and a
complicit u.s. government! Stocks
extend gains after drop in jobless claims [ Washington Post ] I was very disappointed to see this headline
without disclaimor. Very disheartening.
[ It’s really quite amazing, and you won’t get this from the ‘money
honeys’ or other mainstream drivel (actually I got this from the CBS news
reporter, 1070am radio, but NOT their business report), the so-called better
than expected jobs report (albeit bad at 451,000 continuing claims) was
actually based upon federal government estimates for those reports that were
not submitted owing to the holiday … and we all know how conservative the u.s.
government is in making estimates, especially in election cycles when
desperation abounds … riiiiight! ( Drudgereport: GOV'T MAKES IT UP: JOBS
NUMBERS 'ESTIMATED' FOR WEEK... 'BETTER THAN EXPECTED'...
) Then there’s the ‘need more capital’ news from among the
strongest players in the European sector, viz., Germany’s Deutsch Bank, which
can only mean, particularly in light of their adoption of the fraudulent wall
street american mark to anything valuation of worthless paper, still out there
in the many (hundreds?) of trillions. (see infra, ‘…ECB chief economist Jurgen
Stark tells German MPs that the banking system is insolvent. This led to
complete shock because the newspaper headlines from July suggested the
opposite. The German policy establishment is under the illusion that its
banking system is sound because it passed what turned out to be fraudulent
stress test…’) Now, if the German banking system’s insolvent, is there a term
for double, triple, quadrupal, etc., insolvent for what the american banking
system must be? One doesn’t need clairvoyance to know that only bodes ill. Stocks Cling to Skinny Gains, Can't Shake Banking
Concerns ]
The Eerie Implications of Market
Volume and Mutual Fund Flows ‘… Here's a more compelling question: If
two-thirds or more of daily volume is a function of high-frequency trading,
what are the implications for index prices over the long haul? A year has
passed since I posted some charts illustrating the incredible ratio of S&P
500 volume devoted to five financial stocks. Today's game is no doubt different
from last September. It may be about making money, but it probably has little
to do with investing — which may explain a lot about current volume metrics and
mutual fund flows. I'll update these volume charts periodically in the months
ahead.’
Report From Europe: Fall in U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
Cheers Stocks The Mole …
Today is Rosh Hashanah, the jewish New Year, in which it is believed the names
of the righteous are recorded in the book of life, those in the middle ground
are given ten days to repent and become good, while the wicked are deleted from
the book of life. In essence, it is make or break time for the year. One
wonders if we might be entering a similar phase for Ireland with landmark
decisions over the fate of Anglo Irish Bank taken (with the cost of the funeral
to be know in early October) and the funding cliff for Irish banks to refund
some €25bn of maturing debt this month pending (though I feel fears over their
capacity to roll this debt is way overblown)…
Today’s Market Moving Stories
Worth a read: Michael Lewis has a field
day: Beware of Greeks Bearing Bonds (Vanity Fair)
Bad Math - Why The Bullish Case Doesn't Add Up , On Wednesday September 8, 2010, 3:19 pm
EDT
1+1=2 2+2=4
The simplicity and accuracy of those calculations is undeniable. How about this
equation? Fundamental Weakness + Technical Sell Signals + Overpriced Stocks =
Lower Stock Prices. This calculation also seems to be simple and accurate.
Let's look at some equations that don't make sense.
1+1=3 or Better Earnings = Higher Stock Prices
2+2=5 or Weaker than Expected Economy = Rising Stock
Prices
3+3=7 or Positive Analyst Estimates = Higher Stock Prices
4+4=9 or Technical Sell Signals = Higher Stock Prices
5+5=11 or Overvalued Stocks = Higher Prices
Drudgereport: GOV'T MAKES IT UP: JOBS
NUMBERS 'ESTIMATED' FOR WEEK...
'BETTER THAN EXPECTED'...
Treasuries Tumble Following Weak 30-Year Sale...
600
Lockheed execs take buyout
(Washington Post) [ Talk about
having your fingers on the economic / fiscal pulse of the nation. This should
be a new leading economic indicator which, unlike many of the others, is less
prone to manipulation. All hail, the ‘golden goose’ is dead! Drudgereport: MORGAN STANLEY: U.S. Government Bond
Defaults Inevitable … This is a global depression. This is a
secular bear market in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated
bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically
manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that
the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical
wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior
crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until
justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted,
jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. ] The move reflects a shift underway as defense
contractors scramble to prepare for Pentagon budget cuts.
U.S.
drops in competitiveness
(Washington Post) [ Singapore, Sweden, … ? Don’t make me laugh! From defacto bankrupt, meaningfully lawless
america’s perspective, this fallen ranking was a gift and one must be asking,
what were they smoking (or whose money were they taking?) and is the rest of
the world really that bad off? ] Large
deficits and a weakened financial system make the U.S. less competitive in the
global economy, according to World Economic Forum's new ranking. Sweden
Is A Better Place To Do Business Than The U.S. – [Well, that part is true, but
…]. ‘…Sweden, by contrast, has
“the world’s most transparent and efficient public institutions, with very low
levels of corruption and undue influence.” Which loosely translated from
wonk-speak sounds like, “You’re better off dealing with honest socialists than
crony capitalists.”’ [ True enough, but I still don’t buy it (the rankings), especially
america’s fourth place (as opposed to lower) ranking.]
Afghans question U.S.-style capitalism (Washington Post) [ As indeed they should inasmuch as the same is neither capitalism nor american style in the traditional sense referenced here. Defacto bankrupt, in decline, and pervasively corrupt, meaningfully lawless america is a nation unworthy of emulation! ] Kabul Bank became the pride of Afghanistan's financial system by offering the conveniences and thrills of 21st-century capitalism. But the scene outside the bank's headquarters Wednesday was far from that modern ideal.
Fed
sees widespread slowdown of growth (Washington Post) [ Stocks rally anyway
… the ‘miracle of computerized programmed trading’ even if the math and
fundamentals don’t add up …
Bad Math - Why The Bullish Case Doesn't Add Up , On Wednesday September 8, 2010, 3:19 pm
EDT
1+1=2 2+2=4
The simplicity and accuracy of those calculations is undeniable. How about this
equation? Fundamental Weakness + Technical Sell Signals + Overpriced Stocks =
Lower Stock Prices. This calculation also seems to be simple and accurate.
Let's look at some equations that don't make sense.
1+1=3 or Better Earnings = Higher Stock Prices
Earnings season is over. Most companies beat earnings but issued
cautious forecasts. This is particularly true of the tech (NYSEArca: XLK
- News)
and financial sectors (NYSEArca: XLF - News).
By large, profits are still driven by cost-cutting, not organic growth. Retail
sales, which make up about one third of the economy, continued to fall after
the second quarter ended. Additionally, the expectation that taxes will go up
might have moved some companies to pull some of next year's income into this
year. This can't be good for Q3 and Q4 profits. As we've seen in January and
April of 2010, positive earnings reports are not bullish for stocks, especially
if future guidance is weak.
2+2=5 or Weaker than Expected Economy = Rising Stock Prices
On July 30, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) lowered the Q2 Gross Domestic
Product (GD) growth from an estimated 2.7% to 2.4%. On August 27, the Q2 GDP was
lowered further to a jaw-dropping 1.6%. But it didn't stop there. The real GDP
for all three previous years was revised as well. It was lowered by 0.2% for
2007, it was lowered by 0.6% for 2008, and it was lowered by 0.4% for 2009. In
percentage terms, the real GDP for 2007 was revised down from 2.5% growth to
2.3%. The 2008 decrease was lowered from 1.9% to 2.8% and 2009 growth was
revised up from a 0.1% to a 0.2% increase. In essence, the BEA proved that the
recession was (or is) much deeper than perceived and the alleged recovery much
weaker than previously reported. This comes as no surprise, as the key sector
of the financial debacle - real estate (NYSEArca: IYR
- News)
- remains in a funk. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that the number of vacant
properties, including foreclosures, residences for sale, and vacation homes,
reached 18.9 million. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continue to lose money. Has anyone
ever wondered how banks (NYSEArca: KBE
- News)
can make money on the same kind of loans that pushed Fannie and Freddie to the
brink of ruin? Since bad real estate loans triggered the post 2007 economic
meltdown, how can the economy recover without real estate leading the way?
3+3=7 or Positive Analyst Estimates = Higher Stock Prices
A recent Associated Press article observed that 'analysts only seem to hit the
mark with their estimates in the strongest economic times (2003 - 2006).' Why?
'The problem is that analysts get most of their information from the companies
they cover. Corporate managers have every incentive to stay positive for as
long as they can.' Is that true; as true as 1+1=2? On April 26, the day the
S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) topped at 1,219, the Dow (DJI: ^DJI) at 11,258, the Nasdaq
(Nasdaq: ^IXIC) at 2,535, Bloomberg reported the following: 'U.S. stocks
cheapest since 1990 on analyst estimates.' Contrary to analyst estimates, the
ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter stated that 'the potential exists that Monday's
high marked a significant top.' Since April, the broad market dropped as much
as 17%. In March 2009, with the Dow below 7000 and the S&P below 700,
analysts lowered their earnings forecasts from $113 in April 2008 to $40. On
March 2nd, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter sent out a Trend Change Alert and
recommended to buy long and leveraged long ETFs such as the Direxion Daily
Financial Bull 3X Shares (NYSEArca: FAS
- News)
and Ultra S&P 500 ProShares (NYSEArca: SSO
- News).
If
you care to know, until recently, analysts estimated that earnings for the
S&P 500 will exceed their 2006 all-time high, in 2011. Based on that
assumption, stocks are cheap. How about that for flawed math?
4+4=9 or Technical Sell Signals = Higher Stock Prices
The 200-day moving average (MA) is one of the best-known technical indicators,
as it provides delineation between technically healthy and sick stocks. On May
20, the S&P closed below the 200-day MA for the first time since late 2007.
Every attempt to rally and stay above it has since failed miserably. On July 2,
the 50-day MA for the S&P dropped below its 200-day MA for the first time
since late 2007. The same holds true for mid caps (NYSEArca: MDY
- News),
small caps (NYSEArca: IWM - News)
and nearly all individual sector indexes. For good reason, this is called a
Death Cross. Over the past ten years, the death cross has been accurate 75% of
the time, with a 19.72% average return on six winning trades and 6.95% average
return on two losing trades. [chart] In addition to the Death Cross, there are
two head and shoulders patterns, one in the making for over 10 years, and the
other has the breadth suggestive of a major meltdown (see September ETF Profit
Strategy Newsletter).
5+5=11 or Overvalued Stocks = Higher Prices
As explained above, based on overly optimistic earnings estimates, analysts
believe that stocks are cheap. Rather than basing a future outlook on
estimates, it makes sense to use facts as a foundation for any outlook. Why add
an extra variable to what's already an unpredictable market? Ask Yale Professor
Robert Shiller, who's done extensive research on the subject of valuations, and
he'll tell you stocks are historically overvalued based on the current P/E
ratio. Compare today's P/E ratio with the P/E ratio seen at major market
bottoms, and you'll see that stocks are overvalued by more than 50%. Another
gauge that doesn't lie is dividend yields. A company's dividends are a direct
reflection of cash flow and financial health. The current yield is 2.65% for
the Dow and 2.05% for the S&P. Dividends are close to their all-time
low set in 1999 (we know what happened then). This means that companies are
cash strapped and overvalued. Looking at a long-term chart of dividend yields
plotted against stock prices shows clearly that markets don't bottom until
dividends skyrocket. Just as ice doesn't thaw unless the temperature moves
above 32 degrees, the economy won't thaw and show signs of life unless P/E
ratios drop to, and dividend yields rise to, levels seen at major market
bottoms. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
includes a detailed analysis of four valuation metrics, along with short-term
target ranges for stocks and the ultimate market bottom. Based on simple math
and common sense, the July lows are certainly in danger. But it doesn't stop
there.
Report From Europe: Panic Amongst the PIIGS (Seeking Alpha – The Mole) [ Sounds
far from hunky-dory to me and as the
wall street frauds would have you believe and used as a rallying point this
day. Total b*** s***! ] ‘U.S. stocks fell for the first time in five days
Tuesday, ending the longest streak of gains for the S&P 500 Index since
July, on concern the European debt crisis may worsen and hamper global growth.
Bank of America (BAC) and
Citigroup (C) fell at least 2% as European banks slid on
concern stress tests understated potential losses from sovereign debt.
Meanwhile ConocoPhillips (COP) and Chevron (CVX) slumped more than 1.2% as crude oil fell
the most in a week. But Oracle (ORCL) rallied 5.9%
after naming Mark Hurd, former chief executive officer of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) as president. Today, despite some token
buying by the ECB and a decent Portuguese bond auction, the bond vigilantes
have again been out doing their worst pushing the Irish / German 10 year spread
out to levels not seem since 1988 when the debt GDP ratio was 118% . Indeed
yesterday saw the worst single daily performance by Irish Government
bonds ever in terms of spread widening. Greece is also back in the
crosshairs in response to a downward revision to Q2 Greek GDP to -1.8% from
-1.5% originally, and on news the National Bank of Greece plans to raise Eur2.8
bln of capital. The latter may be especially alarming in the current
environment, but really reflects a desire for extra security and also a cash
hoard to potentially spend on weaker rivals. ATEbank stands prominently in this
respect. (picture)
Today’s Market Moving Stories
The stand-out mover in FX today was GBP, which rallied sharply, largely it
would seem on news that Vodafone (VOD) has sold
its stake in China Mobile and intends to use 70% of the proceeds (£4.2bn) to
fund share buybacks. The macros community had started to build GBP shorts in
recent days and this M&A flow prompted a flurry of short-covering, assisted
as well by better than feared Halifax house price data.
Irish Banking
According to the Irish Times this morning, the bank’s chairman has stated that
a statement on Anglo should be expected today. Who will make it or what the
nature of the announcement will be is not evident, but keep eyes peeled around
4pm. Recent media reports have indicated strongly that an orderly wind down of
the bank over 10-15yrs is the new preferred option. But what the markets are
really looking for is an update on the total FINAL bottom line kitchen sink
cost of the bailout and whether its closer to Eur 25bn or S&P’s recent
& much criticized Eur 35bn figure. UPDATE – SEE VERY BOTTOM OF THIS POST.
..
Japan
Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said he is prepared to take “bold”
action on currencies, including intervention in foreign-exchange markets, after
the yen reached a 15-year high against the dollar. “We will take bold action if
necessary and naturally that can include intervention,” Noda told lawmakers in
parliament today. “We have to use every option available as a strong yen is
likely to have a severe impact on companies.” The yen rose to 83.52 per dollar
yesterday, the highest level since June 1995, as concerns about weakening
growth in the U.S. and Europe bolstered the currency’s appeal as a refuge.
UK Outlook
A U.K. index of hiring for permanent jobs in August showed the slowest growth
pace in 10 months, KPMG LLP and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation
said. The gauge of full-time job placements dropped to 56.3 from 60.2 in July,
the groups said in an e-mailed report today in London. That’s the slowest pace
since October. Readings above 50 indicate an increase in hiring. The U.K. is
bracing itself for a period of austerity as Prime Minister David Cameron
pledges to reduce the country’s record budget deficit. U.K. shop price
inflation accelerated in August as the price of food rose at the quickest
annual pace in over a year, a survey showed Tuesday. Total shop price inflation
was 1.7% on the year in August and 0.1% on the month, compared with a 1.5%
annual rate and 0.1% monthly decline in prices in July, the monthly survey by
the British Retail Consortium showed. That was due to a more-than-one
percentage point rise in the cost of food. Food prices were 3.8% higher in
August than a year earlier, while food prices rose 0.2% from July. And July’s
UK industrial production figures suggest that the manufacturing sector
continues to enjoy steady, if unspectacular, growth. The 0.3% rise in
manufacturing output was the third such gain in a row and pushed the yoy rate
of output growth up to a new cycle high of 4.9%. Overall industrial production
saw a similar monthly gain. For now, then, the output data are defying the
rather gloomier tone of some of the recent industrial surveys, such as last
week’s CIPS report on manufacturing. But it is worth remembering that the
surveys normally lead the hard data by a few months, so it would be no surprise
if output growth were to start to weaken over the next few months. And even if
output posts similar increases in August and September, industry won’t make as
strong a contribution to GDP growth in Q3 as it did in Q2. Overall, UK industry
is still doing pretty well, but it may not last too much longer. (picture)
Company / Equity News
And finally UPDATE – Text of announcement
on Anglo Irish
The Minister for Finance today briefed his Government colleagues on the strategic
options for the future of Anglo Irish Bank. The Minister conveyed to the
Government the views of the Board of Anglo Irish Bank, the Central Bank, the
National Treasury Management Agency, the Department of Finance, the EU
Commission and his own assessment of the position.The Government decided that
Anglo Irish Bank will be split into a Funding Bank and an Asset Recovery Bank.
Anglo Irish Bank has not expanded its loan book since it was nationalised in
early 2009 and this will remain the case. It is intended that in due course the
Recovery Bank will be sold in whole or in part or that its assets will be run
off over a period of time. The guaranteed position of depositors will be
unchanged by the new arrangements and no action is required of them as a result
of today’s announcement. The depositors will become customers of the Funding
Bank which will be fully capitalized and continue as a regulated bank. In order
to restore the reputation of the Irish Financial System it is essential to
bring finality to the problem of Anglo Irish Bank – our most distressed
institution. The Government’s primary objective in dealing with Anglo Irish
Bank has been to minimise the cost of this distressed bank to the Irish
taxpayer. The Board of Anglo Irish Bank submitted its preferred option to the
Minister and to the European Commission at the end of May for consideration
under State Aid rules. The board’s plan envisaged splitting the bank into an
asset management company and a new good bank. The asset management company would
have managed out over time the bank’s lower quality assets remaining after the
transfers to NAMA. The new good bank would have managed the remaining share of
the loan book, retained the bank’s deposit funding and sought new lending
opportunities to grow the bank. The Minister acknowledges the good faith and
hard work of the board in producing a credible proposal for the future of the
bank. However, the Government has concluded that this plan in its current form
does not now provide the most viable and sustainable solution to ensure the
continued stability of the Irish banking system.
Resolution Proposal
In these circumstances, the Government has decided to opt for a variation of
the board’s restructuring proposal. The Government’s decision does not affect
existing guarantee arrangements. Under the restructuring plan, the Funding Bank
will be a Government-backed/guaranteed specialist deposit bank which will
contain the bank’s deposit book. It will be a stand-alone, regulated bank,
completely separated from Anglo’s loan assets and it will be owned directly by
the Minister for Finance. This bank will not engage in any lending, but will
provide a secure home for Anglo’s depositors and any new customers who wish to
deposit their funds with it. Depositors with the Funding Bank will be
completely insulated from the future performance of the rest of the current
Anglo Irish Bank loan book. The Asset Recovery Bank will also be a licensed
regulated bank. Its dedicated focus will be on the work-out over a period of
time of the assets not being transferred to NAMA in a manner which maximises
the return to the taxpayer.
Costs
The Government believes that it is essential to identify, with as much
certainty as possible, the final cost for the restructuring and resolution of
the bank. This will underpin international financial confidence in Ireland.
Accordingly, the Central Bank will determine the appropriate levels of capital
needed in both institutions. Its decision will be announced by October.
EU Commission
The Department of Finance has conducted intensive discussions with the EU
Commission in recent weeks about the future of Anglo Irish Bank. The Minister
for Finance met Commissioner Almunia last Monday to discuss the issue. A formal
detailed plan is being prepared for submission to the Commission for approval.
The Minister said: “Today’s decision by the Government will provide certainty
about the future of Anglo Irish Bank. Resolution of this, our most distressed
institution, is essential to the promotion of confidence and stability in our
financial system.”
8th September 2010
ENDS
Brian Meenan
Press Office
PH: 6045875
email: [email protected]
‘
This is what a depression is all about — an economy that 33 months after
a recession begins, with zero policy rates, a stuffed central bank sheet, and a
10% deficit-to-GDP ratio, is still in need of government help for its
sustenance.
Drudgereport: BLIAR BUSTED: Former UK PM's autobiography includes
dialogue from meeting with 'Queen' -- taken from fiction movie! Developing...
REV:
THE BURNING WILL PROCEED...
'Meant
to Be a Warning'...
Vatican:
'Outrageous'...
NYPD:
'Dangerous'...
Holder:
'Idiotic'...
Clinton:
'Disgraceful'...
Palin:
'Unnecessary provocation'...
FBI:
Retaliation 'Likely'...
Petraeus
Speaks Out on Quran Burning...
Endangers
Troops...
Pastor
Says Church Not Deterred...
Hartford
City Council meetings to begin with Muslim prayers...
2
SOLDIERS KILLED IN IRAQ, 9 WOUNDED
ADDICTED
TO STIMULUS: $50,000,000,000 MORE
Dems wary
of WH's huge new spending plan...
Obama
takes aim at Boehner... 'They talk about me like a dog'… [ If the shoe fits ... President
Obama calls African-Americans a ‘mongrel people’ President Obama waded into
the national race debate in an unlikely setting and with an unusual choice of
words: telling daytime talk show hosts that African-Americans are “sort of a
mongrel people.” ]
'They talk about me like a dog'...
FLASHBACK: President-Elect Obama: Mutt 'Like Me'...
'Even
liberal elites concede that Obama's presidency is crumbling'...
BARONE:
Sinking with Obama, Democrats plan political triage...
Muslims
Protest Plans to Burn Quran...
'Death
to America'...
Fears
rise as EU nations aim to raise borrowing...
Roubini:
More than 400 US Banks Will Fail...
'COMBAT
OVER': US TROOPS BATTLE IN BAGHDAD...
Why the Furious Bear Will Come Back - , On Tuesday September 7, 2010, 4:34
pm ‘The Top Ten List has become
a staple of David Letterman's Late Show. We don't quite have the space to
discuss ten reasons why the bear market isn't over (if we did, we'd probably
put you to sleep), but we'll take a crack at a Top Five List. Without further
ado, here it is:
#1: Forget About Earnings
Using
past earnings numbers to project future performance is like basing your
Roulette bet on the numbers that won previously… [chart]
#2: Budget Deficits
The
2011 U.S. deficit projection for 2011 was raised from $1.2 trillion to $1.4
trillion...
#3: Banks - Nothing but Fluff
…Fundamentally,
however, nothing had changed… 'The house of cards was much bigger and started
to stretch beyond Wall Street…The government postponed the collapse of the
'whole deck' thus far. As of recent, however, some disturbing information has
surfaced. Bank of America admitted to hiding bad assets and Goldman's 82%
profit drop shows that the days of fat trading profits - such as seen in Q3 and
Q4 2009 and Q1 2010 - are over… It doesn't take an economist to know that
taking money from your savings account and transferring it to your checking
account can't be counted as income.
#4 Real Estate
In
late July, the market allegedly rallied because new home sales jumped 24% to
330,000 units in June. We feel the urge to put this number into perspective.
May sales were revised from an original 300,000 units to 267,000 units - this
is an all-time low. Bouncing off from the lowest level on record, new home
sales did indeed increase 24%. Is that reason to celebrate though? Chances are
the 330,000 will be revised lower in the future. Regardless, 330,000 homes sold
pales in comparison to the 1.4 million homes sold in 2005.The U.S. Census
Bureau reported that the number of vacant properties, including foreclosures,
residences for sale and vacation homes, reached 18.9 million. It shouldn't be
too long before those bleak fundamentals are reflected in the performance of
real estate ETFs like the iShares DJ US Real Estate ETF (NYSEArca: IYR
- News)
and SPDR DJ REIT ETF (NYSEArca: RWR - News).
..
#5: Consumer Confidence
During
periods of economic expanse the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index
has averaged a reading above 100. Recessions average a reading of 71. The
current confidence reading is at a dismal 50.4. The chart below paints this sad
picture. [chart] Consumer spending is said to make up about three quarters of
the economy. How can the economy recover without participation by the consumer?
It can't. That doesn't mean stocks can't rally temporarily. Such a disconnect
between the economy and Wall Street's dream world tends to be short-lived.
Sentiment Confusion
…
More importantly though, the optimism surrounding the April highs is indicative
of a major market top, a top that implies a decline much deeper than the 20%
we've seen thus far. This conclusion is certainly supported by the
above-mentioned Top Five list and many other indicators…
To
consumer advocates, antitrust enforcement lacking (Washington
Post) [ Unfortunately, at least for those who still care, america’s long past
the glory days of the trust-busters. In fact, america’s long past the days of
any meaningful law at all. See infra, RICO Summary to FBI Under Penalty of
Perjury, which includes how sam alito as u.s. attorney parleyed cover-up and
obstruction of justice et als into fed.ct.appeals and u.s.supreme court
lifetime appointments. The corruption’s incredible but very real. ] The
Justice Department's antitrust division has yet to exercise its signature
power: to bring a case against a corporate titan suspected of abusing its
dominance.
Pearlstein: The bleak truth about unemployment (Washington Post) [ When I saw this headline I felt certain that Mr. Pearlstein would be discussing the reality that the real unemployment rate exceeds 20% with that ‘stopped looking’ fudge factor removed as merely a convenient subterfuge. But, alas and lamentably, I was wrong. To be sure, Mr. Pearstein’s topic is important and probably more optimistic than anyone deserves to be in light of some grim realities that most dare not mention with the defacto bankrupt nation just barely surviving on that wonder drug called hopium (see infra, DeCiantis: ‘Students of behavioral finance must have had a field day this past week. In the wake of a month of dismal economic reports, Wall Street got its risk on with a few better than expected reports on manufacturing sentiment, home sales, and employment. Hopium, it appears, is a powerful drug. [ HOPIUM … YEAH! I KIND OF LIKE THAT METAPHOR WHICH RINGS TRUE! ] ). As for Mr. Pearlstein’s ‘how to make the american economy competitive again.’, I liken this Gordian knot of a problem to one for which magic mushrooms, along with hopium, are as far as reality will permit in terms of even imagining such could possibly be the case. You cannot unring the bell on the irrevocable structural changes wrought by the greediest, most corrupt, and, though often wrapped in the flag, treasonous, lawless elements of american society; governmental, quasi-governmental, and private business (which included the necessary technology transfers). That’s reality! ]
September: In Like a Lion, Out Like
a Lamb DeCiantis: ‘Students of behavioral
finance must have had a field day this past week. In the wake of a month of
dismal economic reports, Wall Street got its risk on with a few better than
expected reports on manufacturing sentiment, home sales, and employment.
Hopium, it appears, is a powerful drug. [ HOPIUM … YEAH! I KIND OF LIKE THAT
METAPHOR WHICH RINGS TRUE! ]
Economists
spent August cautiously lowering their outlook for the second half of the year
as Obama's "recovery summer" failed to bear fruit,
the Federal Reserve failed at both of its twin mandates (stable prices and full
employment), and bullish analysts failed to convince investors that the market
was ready to climb to fresh highs. As a result, stocks ended the worst August
in nine years with rising calls for stimulus and fears of the dreaded
double-dip.
Then
came September. In like a lion, surging nearly 3% on the first trading day of
the month on the heels of a better-than-expected survey by the Institute for
Supply Management of the manufacturing industry. Representing (statistically
speaking) nearly 30% of the US economy, the number was expected to fall after a
series of similar Fed surveys from around the country indicated that American
heavy industry -- that engine of growth over the last two quarters -- was
finally loosing steam. Instead, it leapfrogged every estimate on The Street to
post its first advance since May. Granted the rise was modest, but the surprise
factor flipped the all-important risk switch and a reinvigorated camp of bulls
poured back into the market, convinced that their creeping suspicions about a
slip back into recession were all just a bad dream.
[chart]
Outside
of a few trading irregularities, the data itself forced
the bears to take pause and reflect on the substance of the report. The
economics team at Goldman Sachs may have summarized it best:
"Without question, the report was
better than expected...[but] the details of the report actually reinforce the
case for further slowing in this sector. As shown in Exhibit 2, the gap between
the indexes for new orders and inventories, an important lead indicator of
movements in the composite index and in industrial production, almost
disappeared in the August report. As recently as May, this gap was a robust
20.1 index points. The clear—if uneven—downward trend in this indicator
actually strengthens the case for a decline in the composite index in coming
months. The bottom line: US manufacturing output may still be expanding, but
the risk that these goods are winding up on the shelf has increased."
More telling, however, was the
dissection by semi-permabear David Rosenberg that helps to put the August
print into context:
In a nutshell, ISM did smash consensus
expectations in August but the composition left much to be desired. The
coincident indicators firmed but the categories that actually lead
manufacturing activity softened across the board.
As we said at the outset, the ISM index
was at complete odds with the regional surveys. Philadelphia, New York,
Milwaukee, Richmond and Kansas City were all down. Dallas and Cincinnati were
up. In the past, when we had a 5-to-2 ratio to the downside, the share of the
time ISM managed to eke out an advance was 4%.
It would be wise to lean against the
market's initial dramatic reaction to this data. The ISM orders/inventories
ratio is a decent leading indicator and it sank to 1.033x from 1.065 in July.
1.278x in Julne and 1.441x in May. The hidden nugget in today's report is that
this ratio has decline to levels not seen since February 2009. And the last
time it fell this fast to this type of level was in the September to December
2007 period (1.03x from 1.30x) when once again, there was tremendous confusion
and intense debate over whether it was a recession/soft patch in the economy
and the bear market/corrective phase in equities.
Suffice it to say that in the past 30
years, with eleven observations, ISM dropped to 47x in the three months after
such a decline in the orders/inventory ratio to such a low level as is the case
today. That is the average, the median, and the mode. The highest ISM reading
three months hence was 51.9, so if past is prescient, today's data was likely a
huge headfake.
[chart] The ISM report also
overshadowed another important data release on construction, but we'll get to
that later. The next feather in the bulls' cap was a pair of data points on
residential real estate -- the sick dog of nearly every major developed economy
in the G8. The first revealed a rise in July pending home sales (5.6%) after a
precipitous drop in May (30%) and a further drop in June (2.6%) as an $8,000 tax credit expired.
Analysts collectively expected a drop of 1%. Needless to say the markets were
pleasantly surprised.
A closer look at the data reveals two
key narratives not captured by the popular media or trading desks. First, it's
important to contextualize the "rise" in pending sales by looking at a
longer time series that tells the same story (this particularl series only goes
back to 2005). The graph below speaks for itself.
Second, the reported data may suffer
from a disease common to many of the economic statistics released every day:
Seasonal Adjustment Disorder (SAD). Given the inherent seasonality of the home
buying cycle (higher during the summer when kids aren't in school, lower in
winter when the weather is less than ideal for moving) economists at the National
Association of Realtors make adjustments for these factors to make monthly
comparisons easier. However, that can sometimes mask
changes in the raw data, as was the case with the August NAR release. As
Rosenberg suggests:
While the increase in pending home
sales is encouraging, we did dig through the data and found that the not
seasonally adjusted numbers (the raw numbers) fell by 7%, with declines across
the country. This makes sense as July is usually a slower month for homebuying
activities.
We wonder if there is a chance that the
seasonal adjustment factors could be overstating the monthly increase given
that we have seen such huge volatility in the housing numbers in the recent
year making the seasonal adjustment process more difficult. Recall that
Standard and Poor’s issued a note about the Case-Shiller home price index
saying that “the turmoil in the housing market in the last few years has
generated unusual movements that are easily mistaken for shifts in the normal
seasonal patterns, resulting in larger seasonal adjustments and misleading
results.
Another data point that drew a lot of
bullish attention was Tuesday's housing release on prices. After a few dismal
years, any news that isn't a decrease is more than welcome by just about
everyone, rich and poor, domestic and international. Tuesday's Case-Shiller
print was no exception, as home prices "jumped"...by a mind-numbing 1%...two
months ago in June... on a rolling three-month basis (i.e. April through
June).....still reflecting the last dying gasp of the home buyers' tax credit.
Again, a little context:
And how the markets rallied.
Friday's bulls, reinvigorated after a
powerful (and low volume) start to the month, launched their
attack on a new front: employment. Long a forgotten weapon in the bulls'
arsenal, private payrolls climbed by a larger-than-expected 67,000 in
August, beating expectations for a 45,000 gain. At that rate, it would only
take a little under 9 years to rehire the 7,000,000 people who lost their jobs
during the recession but have yet to find new work (assuming no increase in
population). Only 7,000 permanent government jobs were shed during the month,
though economists expect that number to rise as state and local governments
face crippling budget deficits. The other 114,000
new claims represent the last major layoff of temporary census workers, who
rejoin an army of job seekers that have collectively become one of America's
most structural economic challenges.
Obviously plenty of reason for the
markets to celebrate.
Now for the bad news.
On the same day as the ISM
Manufacturing survey was released to considerable fanfare, July's construction
spending was released by the Census Bureau and confirmed a worsening
year-over-year decline of nearly 11%. Month over month, spending was down 1% in
July and suggests another downward revision to third quarter GDP.
More from Goldman:
Construction outlays dropped 1% in July
from a level that was revised down a whopping 2.7%. This dismal construction
report flew below the market's radar, as it normally does since it usually
comes out alongside the ISM manufacturing survey. One might dub construction
outlays the Rodney Dangerfield ("I don't get no respect") of US
economic indicators. Of all the data released this week, it has the most direct
bearing on the real GDP "bean count" next to the monthly consumption
report. Hence, since consumption was only modestly better than expected, a case
can be made that third-quarter growth might actually be lower now than we
thought a week ago despite all the upside surprises.
[chart]
Wednesday also revealed that another
source of bullish sentiment in July may have been a little premature: auto sales. After months of steep retail incentives and easy
year-over-year growth comparisons, cash- and credit-strapped
Americans returned to a more cautious consumption path. As the second largest
leveraged purchase in a typical household, auto sales reflected that shift. Only
Chrysler, the runt of the litter, managed to squeak out an
increase in sales in an otherwise sluggish retail environment.
[chart]
Finally, on Friday the latest ISM Non-Manufacturing
survey was released and was every bit as disappointing as everyone expected the
manufacturing survey to be. The index slowed to 51.5% in August from 54.3% in
July and 55.4% in May, and its components were even less rosy. From Econoday:
A new optimism after today's jobs
report -- not so fast. The ISM non-manufacturing report shows broad and
deeper-than-expected slowing. New orders at 52.4 are down more than four points
in August for the slowest rate of month-to-month growth so far this year.
Employment, which in this report includes government workers, is signaling
contraction, at 48.2 for a nearly three point decline for the worst reading
since January. The composite headline index at 51.5 is down exactly three
points for what is also the worst reading since January. Backlog orders are
basically flat, export orders are down, deliveries are showing less delays, and
general business activity is slower. Imports did rise as did raw material
prices.
[chart]
In response, the market cut its morning
gains in half, only to rally into the close to retest the morning highs. What
makes this week's schizophrenic ISM interpretations so dangerous is that the
upside surprise on Wednesday was based on data that captures roughly a third of
the economy, while Friday's non-manufacturing disappointment approximates
activity in roughly two-thirds of the economy. So of course the markets ended
the week up 3%.
Once again, Goldman's analysts try to
walk a fine line between sell-side optimism and buy-side skepticism:
On the whole, it's been a good week for
US economic data...reports on factory activity, pending home sales, and the
labor market have surprised to the high side. In fact, some of these readings
have benefited from positive judgmental adjustments, as factors not readily
apparent in the headline indicator have also been better than expected.
However, this does not mean that the outlook for US economic activity has
improved, except insofar as the better-than-expected news eases market worries
about a "double dip". At least some - perhaps most - of the
improvement ... reflects what Paul Krugman once called, in a much different
context, "The Age of Diminished Expectations". In the current
setting, we note that several prominent forecasters have marked down forecasts
of economic activity and therefore may also have lowered their sights on the
higher frequency indicators.
Interpretive bias is inevitable when
any new data is released. Optimists will quickly find a silver lining in any
dark cloud, and pessimists will pick apart even the most robust reports of
growth and tease out a bearish narrative. Investors should think twice when
these competing forces fall out of balance -- when markets are as unabashedly
bearish as they were in late 2008, or as unapologetically bullish as the were
during the second half of 2009.
If the first few days of September are
any indication of how the month will unfold, we may be back on the perma-bull
track. When disappointing data is released, investors cheer for more fiscal and
monetary stimulus. When data is surprisingly positive, investors cheer at the
prospect of a sustainable, organic recovery. As we saw in early 2010, this
"heads I win, tails you lose" mentality is particularly vulnerable to
rapid and substantial correction, and a September that entered as a lion may
finish the third quarter as a lamb.
Disclosure: Long safety, short risk (no specific
stocks mentioned)’
Correlation
and the S&P 500 [ I really think this author was a bit too
diffident in talking about the computerized churn-and-earn scam which eats away
at the real economy , but the discussion highlights at least this immense
problem area ] ‘The immense correlation between the market, and almost all risk
assets on Earth is not a new subject to FMMF readers. [Jun 30, 2009: Bloomberg - Correlation Among Asset Classes
Highest Ever] I beat this dead horse monthly, mostly out of abject
frustration. [Sep 2, 2010: Why Bother with Individual Stocks in the
Perfectly Correlated Market?] I don't have an issue when the market
is up 2-3% or 90% of stocks move in the same direction, it is all these days
the market is up or down 0.7% when it drives a person nuts.
Friday,
for example, every position I had but one was up. As I type this every position
but one is down.
This
correlation madness started to become an issue in 2007 as we were told that
hedgies control 40%(ish) of each day's trading volume. As I said then, since
mutual and pension funds are relatively staid players, the 'fast money' is the
marginal buyer, and 'hot money' in the form of hedge funds - especially of the
quant variety - are the marginal buyer. The problem now is they seem to be the
only buyer as equity fund withdrawals continue on pace as the retail guy floods
into bond funds.
So
we have a market dominated by computers trading to computers, all using related
algo's - happy, happy, joy joy. Now we hear things such as 60-70% of trades
flow through these players... and since EFTs are the weapon of choice,
computerized trading of EFTs have taken over the market. [Jun 29, 2010: Correlations Among Asset Classes Reach Ever
Higher Extremes as HAL9000 Algos Dominate Life] The SPY ETF is now about 9% of ALL volume as of
last check, and we had a time about 7-8 months ago where Citigroup (C), AIG (AIG),
Fannie (FNMA.OB), and Freddie (FMCC.OB) were 40% of all volume. Pathetic.
Frankly,
it makes the market a frustrating and 'less fun' place. The market used to be a
four-dimensional jigsaw puzzle, comprised of fundamental, technical,
psychological, and 'animal spirits.' Now it's just the dumbed down
two-dimensional Etch a Sketch. Shake it at 4 pm every day, because it has no
memory from day to day. Sure you can adjust (in fact you must adjust) if you
plan to stick around, but when everything is a 1:1 correlation, it simply
reduces the market to 'stoopid' and coming in each day, checking your brain at
the door, and staring at the S&P 500 chart trying to guess where it will be
in 3 hours, 3 days, and 3 weeks gets to be boring. [Jul 15, 2010: WSJ - Correlation Soars on S&P 500
Shares]
But
this is the casino market we have built, and I don't see anything
changing anytime soon. The other issue is it makes it so much more difficult to
outperform the market. Surely there are a handful of stock names that still
outperform (or underperform) but with almost everything swaying in the exact
same direction as the market, creating alpha is difficult. Most of the
performance nowadays is not about stocks, but due to calling turns in the
greater market - increasingly hard to position for as you scale in size. Especially
when the majority of the turns are due to binary reactions to economic reports
or Fed announcements - it's simply placing your bets on red and black, not a
stock market.
I've
written about said frustration in the past amongst the "human"
hedgies, [July 8, 2010: Hedge Funds "Frozen in
Headlights" as BiPolar Market with 1:1 Correlation in All Things Not Named
U.S. Treasuries Causes Confusion] and this is taking a toll on the
mutual fund managers as well.
One
of my big beefs with the mutual fund industry is that many players - especially
in the bigger funds - are closed index funds. They all have super cool names
but almost anything in 'large cap value' or 'large cap growth' were hybrid
closet indexers. They basically flip an Exxon (XOM), Intel (INTC), or a Microsoft (MSFT), with a Walmart (WMT), Verizon (VZ), or a Cisco Systems (CSCO) -- change the order, weighting, and
indeed are able to charge a nice fee for doing nothing other than being the
S&P 500 with a small twist. I cannot tell you how many 401k plans I
reviewed for people, where I went to look at the top 10 holdings of the 12-15
mutual fund choices and 90% of them were identical (just in different order in
weightings!). The statistic of 0.99 correlation amongst the S&P 500 and
many of the largest funds is quite remarkable and points to my 'closet index'
beef, but with the mechanics of our new paradigm market, it has taken it to a
whole new level. It also says a lot of people are wasting their money paying management
fees for what is an S&P 500 ETF clone.
That
said, even with the closet index situation that has been growing for a decade+
you used to be able to try to outperform if you plied your trade in small or
medium caps (or international markets), but the HFT + EFT = GLEE environment we
now live in has made that increasingly moot, since most of those stocks now
move in unison as well. If your stock is not in a major EFT it generally sits
ignored with low volume... if it IS in an ETF than it doesnt matter the company
specifics - as long as the algo's are buying (or selling that ETF) as flavor of
the day, every component in that ETF is a winner (or loser)! Stoopid is as
stoopid does in the market with 1st grade logic.
One
gentleman I've admired for many years is Will Danoff at Fidelity Contrafund. [Sep 9, 2008: Will Danoff in Kiplinger Magazine]
His fund has been huge in size for years on end (I'm talking multiples the size
of the biggest hedge funds - Contrafund is now up to $62 BILLION), yet he has
been able to somehow outperform his peer group (and until the past 5 years the
S&P 500) by a wide margin, mostly by being somewhat contrarian. This
despite holding many positions and not being extremely concentrated - a feat I
find quite remarkable since once you start owning 200-250 positions I don't
know how you can beat the market over time. (Contrafund owns 445 positions as of last quarter!) Danoff is highlighted in
this piece, which is why I mention him - he is no dummy.
Via
Bloomberg:
Disclosure: None’
Obama
defends policies and offers new proposal (Washington Post) [ No you can’t wobama … b*** s*** everyone
again! ‘Yes, we can … NOT!’ That dog don’t hunt anymore wobama. Drudgereport:
Obama
takes aim at Boehner... 'They talk about me like a dog'… [ If the shoe fits, wobama … keep
gearing up Afghanistan … sounds like a plan]... ]Faced with twin challenges of boosting the economy
and saving congressional seats, the president tries to do a little of both on
Labor Day.
Krugman:
It's All Downhill From Here Cullen Roche Love
him or hate him Paul Krugman has been awfully right with regards to the macro
picture in the last few years. He’s one of the rare economists who had the
foresight to see the housing bubble and the likelihood of economic downturn
that would result from it. Krugman recently caused a stir when he said the US
economy was headed for the third depression. He isn’t back down from that outlook:
I’ve had a couple of conversations
lately with people who follow politics and public affairs, but aren’t that
close to the economic discussion — and I’ve discovered that there are two comforting
delusions still out there.
Delusion #1 is that we’re on the road
to recovery, just more slowly than we’d like; to be fair, the White House keeps
saying this.
But it’s not at all true. GDP is
growing below potential; employment, even if you focus just on private
employment, is growing more slowly than the working-age population. If you ask
how long it will take us to return to, say, 5 percent unemployment on the
current track, the answer is forever.
Delusion #2 is the belief that the
stimulus may yet do the trick, because there are still substantial funds
unspent. I tried to deal with this last year. The level of GDP depends not on
total funds spent, but on the rate at which funds are being spent, which has
already peaked; GDP growth on the rate of change in the rate at which funds are
being spent, which peaked last year. It’s all downhill from here.
If you can ignore the schizophrenic
market for just a second it’s hard to reject Krugman’s macro outlook. The
private sector has been running on fumes since the debt bubble burst in 2007.
The government’s extraordinary actions helped bolster the economy, but merely
papered over what was a very weak private sector. As we see the government step
aside it’s difficult to imagine that the weakness at the private sector won’t
again be exposed for what it really is.
Government
Bonds: Can the U.S. Maintain Confidence in Its Debt? Cliff Kule Massive,
unsustainable government debt - it's everywhere. Especially in America. At some
point, will the world begin to lose confidence in America's growing debt? Will
interest rates then skyrocket? Will a Greek-style crisis in U.S. government
bonds then ensue? Is there any way out?
America can
claim its debt problems are not as bad as some countries. But that ignores some
important points:
Is there any way for America to maintain the
confidence?
One way would be for America to become fiscally
prudent, simply stop creating money and debt, let the massive deflationary
forces of credit contraction and consumer de-leveraging run their natural
course. This would cleanse the system of toxic debt. It would also clearly and
immediately cause another Great Depression.
Another way would be for America to simply print more
money, create more debt, blindly following Keynesian economics that brought us
into this mess in the first place. Attempt to "inflate away" the debt
without losing the confidence of investors that buy the U.S. government bonds.
This has been tried many times throughout history with disastrous consequences.
The chart below (courtesy of Economic Edge) shows how
increases in debt are recently giving less and less “umph” to economic GDP
growth to the point now of negative GDP growth. Eric Sprott has produced an
excellent study suggesting that 9 cents of "growth" is coming
with every dollar we go deeper into debt. Bud Conrad has produced
calculations that are equally discouraging. This massive debt-driven money
printing would therefore likely lead some form of hyperinflation in a futile
attempt to stimulate economic growth.
This leaves one other option.... a direction that is
hardly ever considered... a policy tool still waiting to be tried!... America
could return to the gold standard... Why? Because the gold standard system
would back the U.S. dollar by real money, and enforce a responsible discipline
of fiscal and monetary policy that Congress and the Federal Reserve cannot
currently do. In turn this would maintain confidence in America's debt.
“The gold
standard has one tremendous virtue: the quantity of the money supply, under the
gold standard, is independent of the policies of governments and political
parties. This is its advantage. It is a form of protection against spendthrift
governments.” Ludwig von
Mises (1881-1973)
Monetary systems on a gold standard system cannot
increase money supply as needed. Under a gold standard system, paper money is
backed by something of real tangible value. The total amount of gold limits the
total amount of paper money that can be created. New money must be backed by
additional gold. Omnis’ Jim Rickards suggests this possible solution:
a “gold backed currency at a non-deflationary price… sound money leads to sound
growth and the creation of real, not illusory, wealth.”
In 1971, President Nixon simply severed the tie
between gold and U.S. dollars. As he closed the gold “window,” Nixon proclaimed
“We are all Keynesians now” (referring to the Keynesian economic school of
thought where gold has no function). Austrian School economists and Cliff Küle
would like to say – We are not all Keynesians.
Did severing the link between the dollar and gold
work to strengthen confidence in the U.S.? Please consider:
Until the greenback is once again made as good as
gold, many millions of people will persist in believing that the barbarous
relic is still a better bet.
Recently speaking about Goldman Sachs’ problems at
the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, former President Bill
Clinton said,
There is a bigger problem here… too much of our
growth was in finance ever since went off the gold standard.
The dollar “tie” to gold might be “re-tied” just as
simply as it was untied. In a certain respect, America never really went off
the gold standard. The tie between gold and U.S. dollar was simply adjusted to
0%. So, simply adjust it back. What tie would be needed today to restore
America back to the gold standard? Let’s do the simple math.
Official
figures for the total amount of gold reserves held by the U.S. Treasury are
8133.5 tonnes of gold. This gold is owned by all Americans and is held in trust
by the government for the people. Given that 1 metric tonne is 32150.746
ounces, that amounts to:
8133.5 tonnes x 32150.746 ounces/tonne =
261498092.591 ounces
If we look at recent Federal
Reserve data, we note that the total U.S. M1 seasonally adjusted money
supply is at $1712.2 Billion of currency. Therefore if we were to take the
total currency and back it by the total amount of gold, this would give:
$1712.2 billion divided by 261498092.591 = US$6547
per ounce
There you have it – if the U.S. were to devalue the
U.S. dollar, setting gold at 6550 U.S. dollars per ounce of gold, the country
could position to go back on the gold standard. Global confidence in the U.S.
dollar and in America's debt would be maintained. It may be as simple as
finding the right price for the government gold holdings to give "backing"
to every dollar in circulation.
$6550/ounce is approximately the current value
necessary to give "gold backing" to the current level of M1 money
supply. If the U.S. wanted to expand the money supply further to stimulate the
economy, it would need to set a new price for its gold holdings which is even
higher than $6550/ounce or somehow get more gold. The U.S. could then be in a
position to expand money supply as necessary to stimulate growth and able to
extend credit to other nations. This is an essential ingredient to restoring
confidence and keeping the title of reserve currency. After all, a reserve
currency should be able to extend credit to nations in need, not be in need of
credit from other nations.
As Jim Rickards
states, this one-to-one ratio backing of gold with the U.S. dollar
would comfortably support a broader U.S. money supply
on a one-to-one ratio and maintain confidence in the dollar and U.S. sovereign
debt.
Perhaps only then could global confidence in the U.S.
dollar and in U.S. debt be maintained – if not, either a deflationary
depression or a hyperinflationary depression could be in store as confidence
wanes with increasing levels of public debt.
Back to the Future
Nick Barisheff, President and CEO of Bullion
Management Group, emphasizes
that gold is money:
Gold is not and never has been a currency. Gold is
something entirely different and far more valuable. It is money.
Cliff Küle suggests that to maintain confidence in
its debt, America must bring back the gold standard, anchoring the U.S. dollar
back to real money - gold, as Article 1 of the Constitution of the United
States commits it to be.
Disclosure: No positions
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a
Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012).
National / World
Drudgereport: Petraeus
Speaks Out on Quran Burning...
Endangers
Troops...
Pastor
Says Church Not Deterred...
Hartford
City Council meetings to begin with Muslim prayers...
2
SOLDIERS KILLED IN IRAQ, 9 WOUNDED
ADDICTED
TO STIMULUS: $50,000,000,000 MORE
Dems wary
of WH's huge new spending plan...
Obama
takes aim at Boehner... 'They talk about me like a dog'… [ If the shoe fits ... President
Obama calls African-Americans a ‘mongrel people’ President Obama waded into
the national race debate in an unlikely setting and with an unusual choice of
words: telling daytime talk show hosts that African-Americans are “sort of a
mongrel people.” ]
'They talk about me like a dog'...
FLASHBACK: President-Elect Obama: Mutt 'Like Me'...
Muslims
Protest Plans to Burn Quran...
'Death
to America'...
Fears
rise as EU nations aim to raise borrowing...
Roubini:
More than 400 US Banks Will Fail...
'COMBAT
OVER': US TROOPS BATTLE IN BAGHDAD...
Obama
to call for $100B business tax credit (Washington
Post) [ Just in the nick of time … riiiiight! … for the elections … you know,
‘talking points’ though of no economic effect
… and to make america, only slightly more bankrupt ... at this point,
who’s counting? ] Under mounting pressure to intensify his focus on the economy
ahead of the midterm elections, president seeks to boost research and
development
Afghan
bankers' assets frozen (Washington Post) Authorities bar sale of
properties held by principal owners, but freeze excludes Karzai's brother [
Yeah … don’t want to get him too angry … he’s too valuable to the heroin trade
resurrected by america. ].
Small
businesses feel squeezed by Obama policies (Washington Post) [ Well, the
grim reality for them is that they just don’t pony-up those big campaign
dollars like those non-performing corporate welfare recipient conglomerates /
big businesses. The other reality, reiterated again here is that everybody’s on
to the fact that wobama’s great at delivering speeches, albeit teleprompted,
but as we now all know, he doesn’t deliver. It’s rather pathetic to see that
old loser and jingoistic fake war hero fraud, senile, incompetent mccain who
never saw a new war opportunity he didn’t like despite america’s defacto
bankruptcy (a policy the post-election wobama’s promulgated) because of same
being given air time as some sort of wise old sage when he’s really just an
old, stale joke who would have been even worse than wobama but not by much,
failed presidencies both. ]
Celebrating Job Losses ‘For now I will stick with the belief that Friday's action was just
another oversold rally in the context of a falling market. I would love for the
economy to right itself … Unfortunately I still don’t see or understand how we
are going to accomplish those things in the near term. I do see many technical
indicators flashing warning signs … Until then cash is the safest investment
and all celebrations should be put on hold.’
Democrats running on austerity (Washington
Post) [ Wee doggies! … The new republican party is born … Actually, despite the myth, the reality is
that under Reagan ( and the bushies, and of course, wobama – clinton caught a break
with the peace dividend but the bureaucracy grew ) government spending
significantly increased along with the government bureaucracy. ] Fearing midterm wipeout, party hopefuls
embrace budget cuts with the zeal of Reagan Republicans.
Palin
calls reporters 'impotent' and 'limp' (Washington Post) [ I must reiterate,
she, palin’s so embarrassingly dumb! She truly is the joke that keeps on giving!
I really mean it! I mean, what next? ] The former Alaska governor weighed in
herself: "Those who are impotent and limp and gutless and they go on their
anonymous -- sources that are anonymous -- and impotent, limp and gutless
reporters take anonymous sources and cite them as being factual
references," she told Sean Hannity. "It just slays me ( this could be
a somewhat Freudian slip as she contemplates the uselessness of sexually
non-interested reporters while she meant lays and I think her supposed /
purported attractiveness / desirability is vastly overstated; but, this makes
for great SNL skits; you know, those reporters not man enough to service her
) because it's so absolutely clear what
the state of yellow journalism is today that they would take these anonymous
sources as fact."
Ex-bank executives say their
dismissals caused panic withdrawals in Kabul (Post,
September 4, 2010; 8:52 AM) Karzai
urges Afghans not to panic as bank withdrawals accelerate (Post,
September 4, 2010; 3:11 AM) Suicide bombing kills at lesat 55
(Washington Post) Pakistan… After
Iraq war, uncertainty and seemingly mixed messages (Post,
September 2, 2010; 4:26 PM) [ What do these nations have in common? An
american presence … and from the foregoing it’s clear that this sounds like a
reporting job for Rosanne Rosanna Dana of SNL fame who has insight into such
scenarios as this ‘cause her mama always said …it’s always something! ]
U.S. to temper stance on
Afghanistan corruption (Washington Post) [ Sounds like a plan! After all, in
america’s own image of corruption, ie., bribery, heroin trade, etc., they’re
remolding Afghanistan replete with good old american style corruption and they
don’t want no noses pokin’ around to see america’s direct involvement in the corruption,
bribery, etc., and particularly the heroin trade, the american raison d’etre
there where the Taliban had all but eradicated the heroin production / trade
which surged thereafter with the american participation. The American rationale
seems to be, continue the corruption, etc., since to eliminate same would help
the Taliban. Riiiiight! My, oh my! You
can’t make this stuff up.] Military
officials conclude that effort to drive out all but the most corrosive abuses
in region would create a power vacuum that Taliban could exploit.
Not-so-dire
jobs report gives stocks a boost (Washington Post) AP Business
Highlights [ Wow! ‘Private
employers hired more workers over the past three months than first thought’ …
Riiiiight! Especially with 2 months to the mid-term elections (time for federal
term limits and the abolition of lifetime appointments for anything owing to
the nation’s defacto bankruptcy), desperation with fake / false data / reports;
and, that negative but better than expected thing as unemployment rate inches
up to 9.6% (the real unemployment rate is approximately 20+% with that ‘stopped
looking’ fudge-factor giving them the false positive). I mean, come on! Private
reports on non-farm payrolls down each week, but suddenly from out of nowhere
defying virtually all economist estimates the ue claims are up, and prior gov’t
reports revised up. This is a great opportunity to sell / take profits! ] ‘(AP)Companies
add 67K workers, but jobless rate rises WASHINGTON (AP) -- Private employers
hired more workers over the past three months than first thought, a glimmer of
hope for the weak economy ahead of the Labor Day weekend. But the unemployment
rate rose because not enough jobs were created to absorb the growing number of
people looking for work ...’
Mark
Hulbert's Take: What Are the Odds of a September Decline? at Seeking
Alpha (Fri, Sep 3) ‘Some of the work Mark Hulbert does is nothing
more than telling us what the gurus in the universe he follows are thinking individually
and, more frequently, in the aggregate. But of late, he also has been doing
some far more interesting analysis in the “Yale Hirsch” mode – and the results
are not satisfying if you are a bull.
The bullish
case seems to rest on two platforms: (1) August was really bad therefore
September should be good in reaction to that, and (2) “Everyone” now expects
the current crop of politicos to suffer major setbacks in November and, since
the market is a predictive mechanism, investors are positioning themselves
today for what they believe will be wonderful news post-November (like an
extension of the current tax rates and a reduction in pork-barrel spending by
irresponsible pols.)
The Dow
rallied more than 300 points the first two days of September so, making the
usual straight-line assumption, bulls believe that today is the day to get
invested, Hmmm. Let’s examine each of the above platforms in turn.
Quoting Mr.
Hulbert’s conclusions based upon his historical analysis:
I have good news and bad news when
it comes to slicing and dicing the historical data as it pertains to September.
The good news is that it is
possible, by carefully reading the statistical tea leaves, to get advance
insight into whether any given month is likely to do better or worse than average.
The bad news: Those tea leaves provide no such hope
that this September will be able to beat its historical reputation as being
awful for stocks.
His research shows that since 1896 (the year the Dow
Jones Industrial Average was created,) the Dow has lost an
average of 1.15% in September. The average gain for all other
months was 0.71%. Worse, a look at the historical record shows that Septembers
did not show a 1.15% decline following a bad August – they showed a 2.7%
decline! Typically, when August is down, as goes August, so goes September --
only twice as bad as usual.
Worse than that, Hulbert notes, “During each of the
past nine decades... September's rank relative to other months in terms of
performance was never higher than ninth. It was dead last in five of those nine
decades -- including the most recent one.”
He adds a final bit of gasoline to this bonfire by
noting that the CBOE's Volatility Index (VIX) is relatively low going into
September, the month tends to do better. Uh-oh. The VIX at the end of August
was quite a bit higher than 20. (And for those who have followed our comments
on the VXX and VXZ ETFs in the past, we
believe they have now entered an excellent buy area.)
As for the second platform, the market seldom reacts
favorably to the same news twice. I’ve been writing for two years that the pendulum
will swing, that the 2008 election was a rejection of the guns-and-butter
policy of the previous administration and was little different than the voters’
rejection of President Johnson’s guns and butter policies in 1968 (thrusting
Richard Nixon into office with disastrous consequences we hope are not repeated
this time around), and that mid-term elections are almost always about
mitigating the euphoria of the previous presidential election. This is not
news!
The rally of September 1st and 2nd
may have occurred as a result of Johnny-come-latelies reaching the conclusion
Wall Street reached about the mid-term elections weeks or months ago. If that
is the case, I imagine the smart money is rubbing their hands with glee and
using this rally to lay on bigger short positions.
The current rally was ostensibly about the fact that
the Chinese Purchasing Managers Index rose to 51.7 in August from 51.2 in July,
followed by the news that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index improved from 55.5
in July to 56.3 in August. I don't see it – these incremental numbers are
nothing but decimal dust in the grand scheme of things! Easily manipulated by
the bureaucrats in charge of such numbers, the “improvement” is so small as to
be barely measurable – and to raise not a stir among the media when they are
“revised” from “up 0.5%” to “down 0.1%” or whatever in another month.
The other economic numbers that form the backdrop to
this rally include: Canada’s GDP fell to an annual rate of 2% in the 2nd
quarter, down from 5.8% in Q1; auto sales absolutely plunged in the U.S. and
around the world; there was a continued drop in U.S. construction spending;
there were declining retail sales in Euro nations; and the ADP employment
report indicating that we didn’t just grow jobs at too slow a pace to cover all
the new workers entering the labor force, but we actually lost some 10,000
private sector jobs! Government is still hiring, of course, but we must always
remember: the private sector is income, government is overhead. That doesn’t
mean we don’t need certain government workers – what hellish existence would it
be without fire and police protection, or good teachers to educate our
children? But it is still overhead even if we collectively choose to pay for it
in order to enhance our safety or literacy.
Bottom line: September tends to do worse in years
that August has been bad. August was bad. The news of the mid-term elections is
already old news and will most likely follow the historical path of all
mid-term elections. We will return more to the center. And the good news to
propel the market higher is likely to be short-lived. Clearly, we aren’t out of
the woods yet. If the market is in a news-dominated phase, we are likely in big
trouble.
For our clients we are stressing safety, with inverse
ETF protection from the likes of ProShares Short S&P 500 (SH),
ProShares Short Russell 200 (RWM), ProShares UltraShort Nasdaq (QID)
and ProShares Short MSCI Emerging Markets (EUM). (If the US and Europe
aren’t consuming, who is going to order stuff from the emerging nations? They
will fall if our markets and economies fall…) We are also buying VXX and VXZ
and are keeping our bond positions short and inflation-resistant, as we do with
WIP, TIP,
BWZ,
and MINT. Finally, we own
some special situations in precious metals, energy and agriculture. (See
previous articles for specifics, including this
and this...)
AP Business
Highlights [ Wow! ‘Private
employers hired more workers over the past three months than first thought’ …
Riiiiight! Especially with 2 months to the mid-term elections (time for federal
term limits and the abolition of lifetime appointments for anything owing to
the nation’s defacto bankruptcy), desperation with fake / false data / reports;
and, that negative but better than expected thing as unemployment rate inches
up to 9.6% (the real unemployment rate is approximately 20+% with that ‘stopped
looking’ fudge-factor giving them the false positive). I mean, come on! Private
reports on non-farm payrolls down each week, but suddenly from out of nowhere
defying virtually all economist estimates the ue claims are up, and prior gov’t
reports revised up. This is a great opportunity to sell / take profits!
]Companies add 67K workers, but jobless rate rises WASHINGTON (AP) -- Private
employers hired more workers over the past three months than first thought, a
glimmer of hope for the weak economy ahead of the Labor Day weekend. But the
unemployment rate rose because not enough jobs were created to absorb the
growing number of people looking for work ...’
Stocks
Churning in Trading Range: Dave's Daily ‘This will be short. Perhaps the image [old lady (wall street)
churning (scam) butter (stocks)] and title should suffice as a summary of the
week. After all, I indicated "possibly" I might post on Friday. The
current market is a reprise of early July's rally from June's selloff. Now into
September the August lows are reversing. How durable will this be is anyone's
guess. Economic data was greeted with bullish enthusiasm as markets were
oversold after Monday's slump. The unemployment data was just about the same as
previous once you look deeper inside the data. The birth/death model is just an
estimate made out of thin air. Once you view the data ex-that, things look
pretty grim. There are very few players involved this week and perhaps in the
future. It's interesting many major banks are closing their proprietary trading
operations. This removes another important prop to markets as retail investors
have left the scene. Further, for stock mutual funds, the exodus continues for
the 16th straight week. Cash balances at these funds are at historic
lows of 3% as the outflow continues. Curiously, short interest is also at an
all-time low near 4% meaning few for bulls to squeeze. We only have hedge funds
and overseas investors in the game. And, it does seem like a game more than
ever now. Bulls jumped on the oversold conditions on Wednesday as a DeMark 9
was registered on Tuesday for most major market daily charts then. A rally on
that technical condition was no surprise ...’
Important
Manufacturing Indicators Look Weak at Seeking Alpha (Fri, Sep 3)
Consumption
Contraction Approaches 2008 Low at Seeking Alpha (Fri, Sep 3)
Beware
the Big Red Leading Indicator at Seeking Alpha (Fri, Sep 3)
Small
Investors Turns More Bullish (contrarian indicator) at Seeking
Alpha (Fri, Sep 3)
Unemployment
Rate Edges up to 9.6% at TheStreet.com (Fri, Sep 3)
AAII
Sentiment Survey: Bullish Sentiment Improves, But Bearishness Still Dominates
at Seeking Alpha (Fri, Sep 3)
Monthly
Markets Review: Risk Aversion Rises in August as Double Dip Concerns Grow at
Seeking Alpha (Fri, Sep 3) ‘…The ECB keeping rates at a record low
of 1% and zero interest policies in the US and in most western economies
remains bullish for gold as the opportunity cost, the lack of yield, of owning
gold is negligible, especially with inflation having picked up recently in many
economies internationally. Further signs of burgeoning food inflation were seen
in the surge in the price of global meat prices which have risen to 20 year
highs … (chart) September can be the 'cruelest month' for stocks. Conversely,
more years than not, precious metals prices perform well in September and many
analysts reckon this year will not disappoint those owning gold. Given the
uncertain financial and economic outlook, it is important that investors remain
diversified with allocations to cash, short dated government bonds,
international equities, and gold…’
National / World
Drudgereport: UNEMPLOYMENT
JUMPS TO 9.6%...
Economy
LOST 283,000 jobs during 'Recovery
Summer' months...
NPR:
'Recovery Summer' Ends With Economic
Pothole...
Labor
Sec. Declares: 'There are jobs out there'...
TREASURY
HEAD RUSHES BACK FROM VACATION; AIDES SEARCH FOR OTHER JOBS PACKAGE...
120
Days to Go Until Largest Tax Hikes in History...
President
Claims Job Creation; Doesn't Mention Net Job Loss of 54K...
HE
NEEDS A VACATION: OBAMA TO CAMP DAVID...
Taxpayers
to face initial loss on GM IPO; Treasury to sell first shares below
break-even...
David Rosenberg: The U.S. Is Suffering a Japanese-Style
Depression Burrows
‘Presciently bearish David Rosenberg, the chief economist and strategist at
Gluskin Sheff who called the global meltdown back when he was still at Merrill
Lynch, isn't budging from his view that the U.S. is in a depression
-- and a prolonged, Japanese-style one at that. Rosenberg reminded clients on Wednesday that here we are 33
months after the Great Recession began, and yet home prices, gross domestic product, credit outstanding,
organic personal income and employment are all lower
now than they were prior to the onset of the downturn. "We can understand
that this is not exactly cocktail conversation, but this is a Japanese-style
(even worse perhaps) modern-day depression," Rosenberg writes. "It's
not the 1930s because soup lines have been replaced with unemployment insurance
lines -- over 10 million checks and for up to 99 weeks. The poor souls who
endured the bitter 1930s had no such relief." And as for the U.S.'s
vaunted labor flexibility and superior demographics saving it from a Japanese
sort of lost decade or two, well, Rosenberg is having
none of it. "Government policy and the record number of people upside-down
on their mortgage have seriously impaired the flexibility of the labor
market," Rosenberg writes. And the U.S. birth rate has declined for two
consecutive years and is at its lowest level in a century, he notes. Of course,
it's no surprise to buy-and-hold investors that U.S. equities have already
notched a lost decade and then some. Take a look at this 10-year chart of the
S&P 500 ($INX): See full article from DailyFinance: http://srph.it/aZTYr7’
[$$] U.S. Equity ETFs Implode ‘U.S. equity ETFs hemorrhaged assets during
the month of August as investors sought out emerging-market equity and debt
along with fixed-income picks. According to National Stock Exchange data (nsx.com)
released today, U.S. equity ETFs shed nearly $11 billion in assets last month.
Here's something remarkable: One U.S. equity ETF accounted for more than half
of these outflows. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF, arguably the ETF industry's most
iconic fund, saw net outflows totaling more than $6.6 billion last month. Who
were the biggest losers besides SPY? You'll recognize some of these names: the
PowerShares QQQ ETF, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF and the SPDR DJIA ETF saw net
asset outflows of $2 billion, $1.7 billion and $616 million, respectively. At
the other end of the spectrum, the Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets ETF and the
iShares MSCI-Emerging Markets ETF attracted $1.9 billion and $1.8 billion,
respectively, while the...’
Retail
sales, home contracts rise modestly (Washington Post) [ Forced / Distressed / Underwater pending / foreclosure sales
the impetus for short-covering / suckers’ rally on light and hence, easily
manipulated, pre-holiday computerized trade volume. The government, desperate
and defacto bankrupt, is back to their fake / false data reporting; you know,
the kind that spurs the fraudulent wall street rallies and gets revised by 35%
+ down later as with GDP just recently, but the wall street frauds will get
their commissions again on the way down.
YAHOO
[BRIEFING.COM]: ‘…Early
participants had little reason to alter their mood since the initial jobless
claims count for the week ended August 28 came in at 472,000, which is in on
par with the 475,000 initial claims that had been widely expected. The latest
tally was also little changed from the prior week total of 478,000. Continuing
claims saw a more substantial slip as they fell to 4.46 million from 4.48
million. Final nonfarm productivity readings for the second quarter also
offered little surprise. Productivity in the quarter fell 1.8%, which is in
stride with the 1.7% decline that had been widely forecasted. Unit labor costs
for the quarter increased 1.1%, as expected. Pending home sales for July
provided participants with a positive surprise. They posted a 5.2% monthly
increase, which contrasts with the call for no change from economists polled by
Briefing.com. That data overshadowed news that factory orders for July
increased 0.1% instead of 0.3% as had been widely expected…’ Stocks
rise on economic hopes ahead of payrolls (Reuters) Riiiiight! Sounds like a
plan! ]
Nation / World
Drudgereport: TIME: (WOBAMA) MR.
UNPOPULAR... FLASHBACK: (WOBAMA) TIME MAN
OF THE YEAR 2008...
Calls for USA to
shore up Afghanistan Bank as withdrawals accelerate...
UPDATE: Oil rig explodes in
Gulf of Mexico; 7 active wells on platform...
COAST GUARD: Mile-long 'oil
sheen' spreading...
Russian police raid opposition
magazine... [They don’t often do this overtly in america anymore
since most media is in cahoots / controlled; but still, no excuse for putin who
is often disengaged as when he is out shooting Siberian Tigers with
sophisticated weaponry. ]
Pledge
beaten by sorority sisters who warned her 'snitches get stitches'... ‘… In her lawsuit,
excerpted here, Howard noted that she had originally planned to pledge
Alpha Kappa Alpha, the oldest African-American women’s sorority. But since the
sorority’s San Jose chapter has been suspended due to hazing activities, Howard
opted to join Sigma Gamma Rho, believing that “they represented the
‘sisterhood’ she sought in a sorority.” However, Howard contends, that the
group’s pledge process was far from sisterly. According to her complaint, she
and fellow pledges were punched, slapped, kicked, slammed into walls, struck
with a wooden spoon and a cane, and had books and coins thrown at them during a
series of 16 nighttime initiation sessions. Howard recalled one evening when a
sorority sister told her to close her eyes. She was then struck on the buttocks
with what she later learned was a kitchen pot. The pledges were also frequently
struck with a wooden paddle, Howard said, blows that left her with welts on her
buttocks. Howard reported that pledges were repeatedly warned not to talk with
friends and family about the initiation process, since “snitches get stitches.”
They were also told that if they failed to participate in certain pledge
activities, they would be “jumped out,” a gang term for a beating conducted by
all members of the group. Howard’s complaint names as defendants San Jose State
University, Sigma Gamma Rho, and various sorority members, including a quartet
of women who, court records show, pleaded no contest earlier this year to
misdemeanor hazing charges. The defendants--Princess Odom; Monique Hughes;
Joslyn Beard; and Nicole Remble--were each sentenced to 90 days in jail,
directed to serve two years of court probation, and barred from involvement
with any sorority. Odom, Hughes, Beard, and Remble (all negroes) are
pictured here, clockwise from upper left, in San Jose Police Department mug
shots.’
Pearlstein:
Put millionaires' tax money to good use (Washington Post) [ Nobody likes
even the sound of higher taxes, particularly when the same goes for such waste
as porkbarrel, political spending but especially the nation-bankrupting
needless war spending, the black budgets, etc.. That said, Mr. Pearlstein is
quite right, especially when one considers the source of the ‘largesse’, viz.,
nation-bankrupting war criminal moron dumbya bush who snidely smirked as he
talked of ‘his (political) base’ and all the ‘politicking’ entailed in same.
Remember… the nation is defacto bankrupt! Moreover, I don’t buy that ‘most
productive’ sector being ‘disincentivized’ unless measured by the magnitude of
their frauds (ie., wall street, etc.), transfer of the nation’s productive
capacity (ie., u.s. ceo’s and politicians, etc., with few exceptions).
Additionally, their marginal propensity to consume is less than that of lower
wage earners (economics) ]
Army supervisor was worried about leak
suspect's mental health, attorney says (Washington
Post) [ One cannot help but hearken back to a frequently deployed ‘government
at its worst’ strategy, ie., Ellsberg/Pentagon papers, former soviet union,
etc., in attempting to discredit such informants, etc., which of course is a
telltale sign of america’s similar fate / decline / fall. ]
What if Roger Clemens is telling the
truth? http://voices.washingtonpost.com/hard-hits/2010/08/what_if_roger_clemens_is_telli.html I ordinarily don’t comment on sports matters
but this is one of those exceptions. While not in any way dismissing the
seriousness of the prevalent use, for quite some time, of performance-enhancing
drugs, my own position on the matter was to place an asterisk next to those who
made the record-books so-doing (still matters of proof) with a more stringent
policy going forward. Where does an incompetent, nation-bankrupting,
non-performing congress get off going after a performance-driven baseball
player when huge crimes, warcrimes, frauds from this same government are still
unprosecuted? Ask the wall street frauds the tough questions … they’ll lie.
Then, even assuming, arguendo, Clemens slipped up … picture the
alice-in-wonderland surreal scene presided over by that mammalian rodent-like
presence of that incompetent in the semblance of some beaver-toothed woodland
creature as, ie., hedgehog, gopher, etc., amidst characters that would rival
the famed mad tea party, mad-hatters all. There are far bigger fish to fry and
of greater consequence to the nation but their lack of courage and incompetence
is the only consistency on capital hill, and everyone knows it. How pathetic!
After all, aren’t all three branches of the u.s. government a lie of
themselves, and have a near single digit approval rates to prove it.
Pa.
capital nearing bankruptcy (Washington Post) [ Sounds like a dry run for the nation’s capital. Drudgereport: MORGAN STANLEY: Government Bond Defaults Inevitable …
Everyone who is capable of thinking knows america is defacto bankrupt. The question is, how did Morgan
Stanley’s assessment escape scrutiny and
follow-up by the press. Indeed, it is certainly a breach of duty to have
done so in light of the implications. ] In a highly unusual move, the city of
Harrisburg says it will not make a $3.3 million payment.
Obama prods Mideast leaders (Washington Post ) [ The real question is … who is going to prod defacto bankrupt, war
crimes nation america … on peace, that is. Then there’s that ‘oh, it’s just war
crimes, illegal nuke-toting israel … laws, rules, un resolutions, etc., don’t
apply to them factor and the concomitant skepticism attendant thereto. ]
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Palestinian President Abbas are set to
open direct peace talks.
A
year ago I posted a story citing the many reasons why we were sinking
into the deflationary Japanese trap. The primary flaw with the US response to
the crisis was that we never actually confronted the problem at hand. I have
often cited Japanese economists such as Richard Koo who appear to have a good
grasp on the problems in Japan and now in the USA. In this case, I cited
Keiichiro Kobayashi who is now looking most prescient:
We continue to ignore our past and the
warnings from those who have dealt with similar financial crises. Keiichiro
Kobayashi, Senior Fellow at the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and
Industry is the latest economist with an in-depth understanding of Japan, who
says the U.S. and U.K. are making all the same mistakes:
“Bad debt
is the root of the crisis. Fiscal stimulus may help economies for a couple of
years but once the “painkilling” effect wears off, US and European economies
will plunge back into crisis. The crisis won’t be over until the nonperforming
assets are off the balance sheets of US and European banks.”…
Read that last paragraph again. These
are scarily accurate comments. While the USA claims to have many economists who
understand the Japan disease and/or the Great Depression the policy actions
we’ve undertaken do not appear to be in line with any understanding of this
history.
What we’ve done over the last few years
is repeat the mistakes of Japan’s past. Instead of confronting the debt
problems head on we have simply tried to fill the output gap with short-term
spending plans and impotent monetary policies. As Kobayashi presciently said,
the “bad debt is the root of the crisis”. I think most mainstream economists,
the administration and the Fed have continually misdiagnosed our problems. They
have attempted to save the banking sector and simply fill in holes with
spending plans that prop up markets, entice more borrowing and largely ignore
the actual cause of the current crisis. Some economists have argued that the
Recovery Act didn’t fail, but that it was too small. This is like saying that
the cancer patient didn’t receive enough percocet. More percocet isn’t the
cure. Targeting the cancer and trying to cut it out is the cure. Yet, we
continue to ignore the lessons of Japan despite having so many “experts” on the
Japanese disease. Therefore, we appear destined to repeat their horrid economic
history assuming our current path isn’t miraculously altered.’
WHO ELSE IS CLUELESS IN THE FINANCIAL SECTOR? [ As I’ve previously said and
reiterate here, the lunatic frauds on wall street are criminally insane and the
only way to stop / deter their debilitating churn and earn among other
computerized frauds is prosecution, jail, fines, and disgorgement! Once again
they’re back to their huge fraudulent gains as seen this reporting period
despite growing problem bank list, worthless paper from the prior fraud in the
(hundreds of) trillions now marked to anything, and look at August results and
worse to come; that money for their commissions / premiums must come from
someplace, viz., the bubble which will deflate / crash. ] Graham Summers
‘Here’s a zinger of a news story:
Barclays Plc had no idea how big Lehman
Brothers Holdings Inc.’s futures-and-options trading business was when it
considered taking over
the defunct bank’s derivatives trades at exchanges in 2008, a Barclays
executive said.“Lehman’s books were in such a mess that I don’t think
they knew where they were,” Elizabeth James, a director of Barclays’s
futures business, testified today in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Manhattan. James
worked on Barclays’s purchase of Lehman’s brokerage during the 2008 financial
crisis.-- Bloomberg
I’ve railed for months that the central
issue surrounding the Financial Crisis (derivatives) was not only misunderstood
but completely ignored by the mainstream financial media. Here we are, nearly
two years after Lehman Brothers went bust, and they’re telling us that Lehman
had “no idea” what its options and futures exposure was.
Let’s put this into perspective.
The notional value of the derivatives
market at the time that Lehman went bust was somewhere between $600 trillion
and $1 Quadrillion (1,000 trillions). It was a market of inter-linked paper
contracts entangling virtually every financial institution (including some
non-financials), country (Greece, Italy used derivatives to get into the
European union), and county (Birmingham Alabama is one example) in the world. As
a market it was at least 20 times larger than the world stock market and
somewhere north of 10 times World GDP.
In other words, this was the giant white
elephant in the living room.
And here’s Lehman brothers, one of Wall
Streets’ finest, most respected financial institutions which had been in
business for over 150 years announcing that it had “no idea” “if
it had sold $2 billion more options than it had bought, or whether it owned $4
billion more than it had sold.”
In today’s world of trillion dollar
bailouts, $2-4 billion doesn’t sound like much, so let’s give some perspective
here… in its golden days, Lehman Brother’s market cap was roughly $47 billion.
So you’re talking about bets equal to an amount between five and 10% of its
market cap. Not exactly chump change.
And Lehman had no idea where it was or
how much it really owed.
Mind you, we’re only addressing
Lehman’s options and futures derivatives, we’re completely ignoring its
mortgage backed securities, collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), and other
Level 3 assets. Options and futures are literally the “tip of the iceberg,” the
most visible portion of the behemoth that was Lehman’s off balance sheet
derivative issues. After all, these are regulated
securities,
unlike most derivatives.
Now, if the above statement doesn’t
send shivers down your spine, have a look at the notional value of derivatives
exposure at the top five financial institutions in the US (mind you, this chart
is denominated in TRILLIONS). [chart]
If Lehman had “no idea” what it owned
even when it came to options and futures (regulated derivatives), what are the
odds that these other firms, whose derivative exposure is tens if not hundreds
of times larger than that of Lehman’s, might similarly be “in the dark’
regarding their risk?
Moreover, who on earth might be on the
opposite end of these deals? Other US counties like Birmingham Alabama (which
JP Morgan transformed into 3rd world country status)? Other countries like
Italy or Greece (who used Goldman’s financial engineering to get into the
European Union)? My next-door neighbor’s house? Tim Geithner’s long-lost tax
returns? WHO KNOWS?
The point is that the very same issues
that nearly took the financial world under in 2008 still exist today. In fact,
this time around the systemic risk is even more severe.
Consider that the Credit Default Swap
(CDS) market which nearly took the financial system down in 2008 was roughly
$50-60 trillion in size. In contrast, the interest rate based derivative
market is in the ballpark of $500+ trillion.
Indeed, US commercial banks alone have
$182 TRILLION in notional value of interest rate based derivatives outstanding
right now. To put that ridiculous number in perspective it’s 13 times
US GDP and roughly three times WORLD GDP…’
Predicting
This Year's Bank Failures ‘The FDIC’s quarterly banking profile, providing
data for quarter 2, was released today. The number of 2010 United States bank
failures will likely exceed the 2009 failures, the FDIC reported. This was as I
reported in this space back in May. Thus far this year there have been 118 bank
closings, which compares to about 80 by the same time of year in 2009. The
number of banks on the problem list is still rising. It is now at 829 banks…’
Drudgereport: Auto sales:
Worst August since 1983...
Increase
in federal spending hits record (Washington Post) [ Sounds like a plan …
the ‘increase the depth of the nation’s bankruptcy’ plan! And, unlike other
american plans, this plan’s working … that bankruptcy thing … but otherwise,
not! ]
Is
the U.S. Bankrupt? [YES!] (at Motley Fool)
The Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts recently reported that
bankruptcy filings between April and June hit a four-year high. Consumer
bankruptcies rose 21 percent while business bankruptcies increased eight
percent. The list of corporate bankruptcies over the last couple of years
includes big names like Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual, and GM. And financial institutions like
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) received billions of dollars
through the federal government's Troubled Asset Relief Program. Should
investors add the U.S. government to that list of big name bankruptcies? I recently asked
Boston University economics professor Lawrence Kotlikoff, author of Jimmy Stewart is Dead: Ending the World's Ongoing
Financial Plague with Limited Purpose Banking.
Mac Greer:
Larry, I noticed the headline or the title of a recent article that you wrote, US
is Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It (see infra)
Home
prices up 4.2 percent in U.S. (Washington Post) [And america and ultimately
taxpayers paid for every percentage point with money they and soon taxpayers
don’t have and experts say the expiration of same will further be felt in the
form of declining real estate prices going forward. ]
Predicting
This Year's Bank Failures ‘The FDIC’s quarterly banking profile, providing
data for quarter 2, was released today. The number of 2010 United States bank
failures will likely exceed the 2009 failures, the FDIC reported. This was as I
reported in this space back in May. Thus far this year there have been 118 bank
closings, which compares to about 80 by the same time of year in 2009. The
number of banks on the problem list is still rising. It is now at 829 banks…’
Ron
Paul to Fed, Ft. Knox: Show Me the Gold
at Minyanville
The
Deteriorating Macro Picture
The rebound in assets was surprisingly strong and the
ability of corporations to sustain bottom line growth has been truly impressive
– far better than I expected. However, I am growing increasingly concerned that
the market has priced in overly optimistic earnings sustainability – in other
words, estimates
and expectations have overshot to the upside.
What we’ve seen over the last few years is not
terribly complex in my opinion. The housing boom created what was in essence a
massively leveraged household sector. The problems were compounded by the
leveraging in the financial sector, however, this was merely a symptom of the
real underlying problem and not the cause of the financial crisis (despite
what Mr. Bernanke continues to say and do to fix the economy) …’
Car
sales, spending up, but experts not convinced of trend (Washington Post) [
I’d say time for ‘mouth to mouth
resuscitation’ and a closer look isn’t even necessary. Some experts? Just ask
any guy on main street. Treading water? I’d say time for post-mortem on the
drowning victim.] But a closer look at those car sales raises questions about
whether the auto market - and consumer spending as a whole - are indeed on an
upward arc or whether they are just treading water.
In
the Middle East, it's still 1947 (Washington
Post) [ Indeed it should be! Among the few
times the cia was correct, and they’ve been trying to put square pegs in round
holes ever since, to america’s substantial detriment. I wonder what what those
american sailors of the US Liberty killed by the israelis would say? USS
Liberty Survivor Threatened by Unknown Israeli This is what happened to Phillip F. Tourney, decorated war hero
and survivor of Israel’s premeditated attack on the USS Liberty 43 years ago.
On the evening of Aug. 6, Tourney was verbally threatened by a foreign national
claiming to work for the government of israel. As for the purported disdain
shown for war mongerer netanayahu, if only wobama’s actions matched his words,
the same would represent a major plus for him and the nation of america, so
sorely in need of pluses whether the same be budgetary or economic or
geopolitical. In fact, for America to abrogate 1948 would guarantee America’s
survival, prosperity, and global hegemony in the most positive sense. ]
Obama
speech on Iraq has risks (Washington Post) [ Yeah, very true indeed!
The main one being that he’s supplanting that illegal, unnecessary, nation-bankrupting
war with yet another in Afghanistan which will not be lost on those who
supported his candidacy based on promised end to unnecessary war policies which
have diverted time, attention, ill-afforded resources including personnel and
continue to do so even as defacto bankrupt america crumbles. ]
Home
prices up 4.2 percent in U.S. (Washington Post) [And america and ultimately
taxpayers paid for every percentage point with money they and soon taxpayers
don’t have and experts say the expiration of same will further be felt in the
form of declining real estate prices going forward. ]
In the Eye of a Financial Katrina - http://seekingalpha.com/author/wall-street-sector-selector
Sunday, August 29th, was the fifth anniversary of Hurricane Katrina’s landfall
along the Gulf Coast and all of us vividly remember the horrific images of that
day and the days and weeks after. Five years later, the Gulf Coast has come a
long way but most would agree there’s still have a long way to go and many
scars yet to be healed. In the world of money and investing, the Financial
Katrina hit three years ago this month with the beginning of the sub prime
meltdown that led to the “Great Recession.” For the past year or so, we
have been in what appeared to be a recovery but now looks more like the eye of
the storm; today it is quite likely that the second wall of the hurricane is
now rapidly bearing down upon us. The news this week was intensely
negative and the only bright spot came on Friday with Chairman Bernanke’s
speech at Jackson Hole in which he essentially told us, “don’t worry, be happy”
and that all would be well. In spite of the Chairman’s calming tone, Wall
Street Sector Selector remains in the “red flag flying” mode and we believe
that an intense storm lies just ahead. Looking at My Screens
On a technical basis, one can only be bearish and the two charts below tell a
quick and scary story. [ chart courtesy of StockCharts.com ]In the
chart of the S&P 500 above we see the “death cross” highlighted by the
downward pointing arrow wherein the 50-Day Moving Average crossed below the
200-Day Moving Average which is a widely followed indicator of lower stock
prices ahead. In the upper box we see the 14-day RSI pointing upwards from
relatively oversold levels indicating that a short term bounce could be
forthcoming, while the red horizontal line shows the support at 1040 which was
tested and held every day last week. From this display we can conclude that we
are in a bear market, slightly oversold and near support that, if broken, could
lead to a quick drop to the July lows of 1010. [ chart courtesy
of StockCharts.com ] The point and figure chart above paints an even
more ominous picture. A double bottom “sell” signal was generated on August
11th and the index has now broken through the blue bullish support line,
indicating the onset of a new bear market in this major index. Support and resistance
lines in point and figure charting tend to act like firm walls and mark major
turning points in direction, and this recent trend change is the first since
March, 2009, when the lows were hit and last year’s unprecedented rally began. The
breach of this bullish support line is a major development and in my opinion is
an unmistakable sign that it’s time to head for the storm shelters. The
View from 35,000 Feet The fundamental news was equally shocking this
week as existing home sales declined to 3.8 million units for July from a
previous level of 5.26 million. This number is a record low and single family
home sales were at the lowest levels since 1995. Truly we are in what could
only be described as a housing market depression, and this comes in spite of
historically low mortgage rates that people appear to be ignoring. Seemingly
almost nobody wants to buy a house at any rate or any price. New home sales
fared no better, declining to record lows, as well, while 25% of mortgage
holders are currently “upside down” in their homes, owning more than they’re
worth, and 15% are in some part of the foreclosure process. Beyond the dismal
news from the housing market, the July Durable Goods report was dismal and
points to an ongoing slowdown in capital spending and on Friday 2nd Quarter GDP
was revised downward to 1.6% from a previous 2.4% in what could only be
described as a terrifying result in light of the stimulus and Federal Reserve
intervention required to generate this paltry number. More and more
analysts are pointing to further reductions in GDP for 3rd Quarter towards flat
or even negative territory while the stock market seems currently priced for
1.5-2.5% growth and this creates a situation which is unlikely to have a
positive outcome going forward. Looking across the spectrum of noted analysts, we find Princeton
economist and former Federal Reserve member Alan Blinder writing an article in
the Wall Street Journal titled, “The Fed is Running out of Ammo” and noted Yale
economist Robert Shiller appeared on the Wall Street Journal’s “Big Interview”
and said that a double dip “may be imminent.” And finally Albert Edwards, the
noted analyst from Societe General says to look for 450 on the S&P
500, a roll back to 1982 levels. Fidelity reports that in the second quarter
25% of people took hardship withdrawals from their 401ks, a number that
represents a 10 year high, to help them meet living expenses and the ECRI
remained in recessionary territory with a -9.9% reading last week. On Friday
Intel (INTC) cut its earnings and revenue forecast
and across the Atlantic Ireland was downgraded and given a negative outlook by
S&P. Also in Europe, interest rates and Credit Default Swap pricing
continued to rise as their sovereign debt situation continues to erode
confidence in the outcome of the European Central Bank’s historic intervention
efforts of a couple of months ago. The bond market remains priced for
Armageddon, forming what many say will one day be the biggest bubble of all
time and lead to a historic crash in the bond market somewhere down the road.
But on Friday, Dr. Bernanke cheered world markets when he told us that he
expected no double dip, that growth would continue and improve and that he and
his colleagues stood ready to do whatever it takes to avoid deflation and that
he had the tools to lead the global economy to recovery. This upbeat assessment
comes after unprecedented government stimulus, interest rates lowered to near
zero and $1.7 Trillion of asset purchases by the Fed since the onset of the
Great Recession. So one can only wonder how this is going to work. If the
medicine hasn’t worked so far, why would a little more of the same medicine
make a difference? What It All Means As we’ve been saying
for weeks, a double dip looks highly probable with the odds growing daily,
lower stock prices look likely and to make your chest feel even tighter, summer
is almost over, traders will be back from the Hamptons, the kids will be back
in school and we’re about to enter the dreaded month of September which is
historically the worst month for stock market performance. At Wall Street
Sector Selector, we remain in the “Red Flag” mode, expecting lower prices
ahead, and we forecast that the second storm wall of the Financial Katrina is
about to hit. The Week Ahead To say that a major week lies ahead is a massive understatement. Economic
Reports: A busy round of economic reports this week will give us a
look at personal income and spending, home prices, manufacturing and what the
Federal Reserve really thought at their recent meeting with everything leading
up to the climactic Non Farm Payroll report on Friday. Certainly all of this
will be food for thought going into the long Labor Day weekend. Tuesday:
0900: Case/Shiller 20 City Home Price Index 0945: August Chicago PMI
1000: August Consumer Confidence. 1400: FOMC Meeting Minutes Wednesday:
0815: July Construction Spending 1000: August ISM Index 1400: August
Auto Sales Thursday: 0830: Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims
1000: July Factory Orders 1000: July Pending Home Sales Friday: 0830: August Non Farm Payrolls 0830: August
Unemployment Rate 1000: ISM Services Sector Spotlight: Leaders:
Silver, Oil, Copper Laggards: Mexico, Global
Shipping, South Korea This week we’re heading for Southwest Florida for a last
week of R&R before school starts and reality strikes after the long Labor
Day weekend. We hope to have a nice time on the beach and not see any tar balls
between our toes. Sadly, I’m sure this year’s Labor Day celebration won’t be a
particularly happy occasion for the 14.6 million of our fellow citizens who
remain unemployed and I can only wish them the very best and a speedy return to
gainful employment and happier days ahead. Disclosure: RWM,
PSQ, SH, SEF, EFZ, SKF, VXX, S&P 500 Put Option
Five
reasons to be optimistic about the economy (Washington Post) Those Who Ignore History...
China’s
Central Bank Chief Rumored To Have Defected Rumors have circulated in China
that People’s Bank of China Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan has left the country. The
rumors appear to have started following reports on Aug. 28 which cited Ming
Pao, a Hong Kong-based news agency, saying that because of an approximately
$430 billion loss on U.S. Treasury bonds, the Chinese government may punish
some individuals within the PBOC, including Zhou.
Drudgereport:
AMERICA RUST- India's economy races 8.8%...
Russian
economy grows 4.0%...
German
unemployment rate 7.6%...
FDIC
MESS: 829 BANKS AT RISK...
48
HOURS: 21 American soldiers killed in Afghanistan...
Worst
August For Stocks Since 2001...
Congressional
Travel Stipends Probed...
Dems
face midterm meltdown...
Ron
Paul questions whether there's gold at Fort Knox, NY Fed...
Dow Falls
140 Points; Banks, Industrials Slide...
1
OUT OF 6 TAKE GOV'T AID...
Homelessness
Up 50% In New York City...
OBAMA
BLAMES BUSH AGAIN FOR ECONOMY … [ bush (et als) does deserve blame but with
flawed pro-fraudulent wall street among other non-policies and continued
nation-bankrupting war, wobama is a distinction without a difference and has
bought it and can no longer shirk responsibility with the blame game ] ...
Iran
state media call French first lady prostitute...
EDUCATION
SEC URGED STAFF: GO TO SHARPTON RALLY
Stocks
up [america down] (Washington Post) Previously
reported economic growth, upon which hundreds of rally ‘points’ were
predicated, revised down by 50% of the actual 1.6%. This is typical but no
small laughing matter which bespeaks the wayward ways of wall street that got
us to this debacle which also includes defacto bankruptcy of the nation. So,
GDP down, consumer confidence down, and stocks rally like no tomorrow (which is
the fraudulent wall street time horizon … they’ll just commission on the way
down). Am I missing something here, particularly when a more sobering view from
a rational player, INTEL, is far more credible? One former fed chair likened
no-recession-helicopter ben bernanke’s factually deficient, empty words to ‘a
doctor telling a patient he’s not sure of what the problem is (that economic
uncertainty thing he referenced), but if his leg gets worse he can always
amputate.’ Previously, as pertains to the jackson hole
no-recession-helicopter-ben b*** s*** non-event / talk. Fed action signals new activism (WP) [
Riiiiight! The activist fed! That’s all we need. As if we needed more of what
brought us to this point! Certainly the fed’s role in the continuing and
current financial crisis / debacle cannot be ignored or disputed. Nothing like
a hegelian methodology to create the
very problems for which they are called upon to offer solutions, increasing
their sense of importance, and concentrating power thereby. (Think about it. It
is really rather quite absurd that each meeting time the financial markets hold
their bated breath for these incompetent boobs). Then there’s the cover-up with
an opportunity for enrichment of some, usually the tight-lipped yes-men then
ever after and forever bonded in what becomes tantamount to an almost fraternal
link by ‘virtue’ of the crime thereby. No, I’m not saying their initial
missteps were necessarily badly intended, but the manipulations thereafter to
obfuscate their incompetence (senile greenspun, no-recession-helicopter-ben,
etc.) comes at a great price and is nothing less than tantamount to or just
outright crime. I’d abolish the fed without hesitation or compunction. After
all, at this point of decline and defacto bankruptcy of the nation you
certainly can’t point to success nor argue their indispensability. Then there’s
also the missing trillions, over-printing of fiat currency, and all that sub rosa
activity with the worthless fraudulent toxic paper which I believe is being
supplanted with ultimately hard currency to the great benefit of the frauds and
great detriment to the nation.]
Fed
vows to act if economy stalls (Washington Post) [ Wow!
Really! Sounds like a plan! A ‘no-recession-helicopter-ben’ plan! One former fed chair / bk. pres. likened
no-recession-helicopter ben bernanke’s factually deficient, empty words to ‘a
doctor telling a patient he’s not sure of what the problem is (that economic
uncertainty thing no-recession-helicopter-ben referenced), but if his leg gets worse he can always amputate’
Why
is the recovery faltering? (Washington Post) [ Oooooh! ‘Dat ben! He
gives such great, unctuously soothing talks. Along with wobama, we must
consider this time, a time for defacto bankrupt American decline with the
cocomitant rise of b*** s*** . The watchwords are no longer (as in Hollywood
and elsewhere) ‘pastics’, ‘computer chips’,
but rather b*** s*** and more b*** s***! I truly must say, almost as a
‘revenge to Samuelson economics kind of thing’, that Mr. Samuelson here talks
symptoms rather than (structural) causes and totally misses the (big)
macroeconomic picture and should be chastised for faulting prudence.]
Helicopter
Ben Bernanke Says Everything Is Going To Be Okay Don’t worry everybody.
Federal Reserve Chairman “No Recession Helicopter Ben” Bernanke says that the
U.S. economy is going to be just fine, and that if it does slip up somehow the
Federal Reserve is ready to rush in to the rescue. That was essentially
Bernanke’s message to an annual gathering of central bankers in Jackson Hole,
Wyoming on Friday.
Is Ben Lost? [Yes!]
Butter ‘The much awaited
speech by Ben Bernanke, on Friday, was a bit of a non-event. It was
interesting, however, to see the 30 Year bounce, from 3.55% to 3.7%, the moment
that Ben explained his cunning plan to push long-term interest rates down. But
at least we learned that $140 billion of the $1.25 billion the Fed advanced to
buy agency debt and MBS, got repaid. One question Ben: “How much did you pay
for the $140 billion that got repaid? Did you make a profit, or are you going
to wait until Ron Paul’s audit before you let us know how that went?.” I know
I’ve got a dirty mind, but I can’t help thinking that if Ben had made a profit
on that transaction, he would have been crowing about it. I loved this bit,
particularly the “Thus”:
Thus, our purchases of Treasury, agency debt, and
agency MBS likely both reduced the yields on those securities and also pushed
investors into holding other assets with similar characteristics, such as
credit risk and duration. For example, some investors who sold MBS to the Fed
may have replaced them in their portfolios with longer-term, high-quality corporate
bonds, depressing the yields on those assets as well.
Hmm…
But this was
the kicker, admittedly hidden away between jargon-heaped on jargon, but there
all the same:
(Al those good things managed)... provide further support
for the economic recovery while maintaining price stability, the Fed has also
taken extraordinary measures to ease monetary and financial conditions.
I especially
love the part about “further” support. As if the banks are going out and
lending money to Main Street, as opposed to simply using their free, Fed
supplied, get-out-of-jail card to create an illusion of solvency whilst they
“extend and pretend”. Similar to what happened in Japan after their bubble
burst. The real gem, however, was the idea of “maintaining price stability”.
What that means is stopping assets prices (house prices, commercial real
estate, and to some extent stocks) from going down to where they have to go,
before market clearing can start. Funny how when asset prices were bubbling
through the roof, that was not considered “inflationary” by the Fed and was not
something to be concerned about. But, when asset prices fall through the floor,
that is considered deflationary (or disinflationary), and is very bad. Ben
looks to me suspiciously like a greenhorn lost in the woods who used up all his
ammo shooting at shadows. And yet, there is the Big Bad Wolf of private sector
deleveraging faster than he can run the printing presses, (and more
importantly, get that money out into the real world) lurking round the corner.’
Corporate
Media Dismisses Castro’s Bin Laden Claim As Far-Fetched Conspiracy Theory The corporate media wasted little time in
seizing upon controversial Cuban leader Fidel Castro’s comments about Osama bin
Laden being a U.S. spy to deride the claim as a far-fetched conspiracy theory,
and yet the fact that Bin Laden was once a CIA protégé and has been used time
and again to the benefit of the U.S. government’s geopolitical agenda is a
documented fact.
Drudgereport: 7
US troops killed in latest Afghanistan fighting...
Castro:
Osama bin Laden is US spy...
PAPER:
CIA secretly paying Afghan officials...
7
U.S. troops die in Afghanistan violence (Washington
Post) [ I was discussing my opposition
to the contrived conflict in Iraq with a former air force man with high (top?)
security clearance from economic, geopolitical, and humanitarian perspectives;
and further, mentioned I had sought and gotten an appointment to West Point (I
was exempt) so I could go (Vietnam) as an officer rather than a grunt who were
being used as mere cannon fodder as now in Iraq (I also related the fact that I
am thankful, for a multitude of reasons, I changed my mind in light of then new
realities). He replied, quite seriously, that’s what they’re there for… No they
are not! But yes, that is their unequivocal, unforgiveable attitude beyond the
b*** s*** (look at cheney-5 deferments, bush-powderpuff duty courtesy of poppy
bush, clinton-draft dodger, wobama-never served, etc.. Just a destructive
waste!) The latest deaths bring
to 42 the number of American forces who have died this month in Afghanistan
after July's high of 66.
U.S.
officers weary and humbled (Washington Post) [ Indeed they should be; and, if they are able
to make sense of the last 2 decades particularly, they are certifiably true
american crazy, a condition in the u.s. and among it’s war mongering allies
that is found in self-destructive abundance. No joke! And then there are the
crimes / frauds. My position is also that such frauds as the disappearance of
the 360 tons of $100 bills, etc., and similar such frauds should come right off
the top, a direct reduction in their budget allocation particularly in light of
the defacto bankruptcy of the nation! ]
How Iraq vets make sense
of the last seven years will affect how america wields its military power [very
poorly indeed!] .
We’re Already In Recession [actually a depression] Harding ‘‘…
look at the trend. After an unusual four straight quarters of
negative growth in the severe 2008-2009 recession, the recession ended in the
September quarter of last year when GDP managed fragile growth of 1.6% for the
quarter, and then improved to 5.0% growth in the December quarter.It was
understood that much of that growth was temporary, fueled by government
spending, and spending by consumers provided with government bonuses and
rebates, as well as temporary rebuilding of inventories by businesses. But it
was expected that with that jumpstart the recovery could continue on its own
legs.So, it was a bit of a surprise when GDP growth slowed to 3.7% in the March
quarter of this year while those programs were still having an influence. But
economists still expected the economy would grow at a 3% pace in the June
quarter even with those programs winding down, and for the rest of the year.So,
it was a real disappointment when second quarter growth was reported a
month ago as having been only 2.4%. Plus, when additional data became available
for May and June, the last two months of the second quarter, and those
reports were increasingly negative, economists predicted that Q2 GDP growth
would be revised down to only 1.3%.On Friday, the revision was released, and it
showed growth last quarter slowed significantly, but only to 1.6%, not as bad
as the latest forecast.The media and the stock market, starving for good
news–and with the market short-term oversold after being down 10 of the
previous 13 days–took it as a positive. But let’s get real.The issue is
not whether economists got their forecast right or wrong, but the degree to
which economic growth is slowing. And a trend of 5% growth in the December
quarter, followed by a 1.3% decline to 3.7% growth in the March quarter,
followed by a 2.1% decline to 1.6% growth in the March quarter is a chilling
rate of decline.Now factor in that economic reports so far for July and August,
the first two months of the third quarter, have been significantly worse than
those of May and June, and significantly worse than economists’ forecasts, with
the relapse pretty much across the board; in the housing industry,
manufacturing, retail sales, consumer and business confidence, the decline in
U.S. exports, and so on.It’s not a stretch then to think that economic growth
is declining by another increment of more than 1.6% this quarter, which would
have it in negative territory, already in recession.In his speech Friday
morning at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Fed Chairman
Bernanke, while saying he still expects the economy to grow in the second half
“albeit at a relatively modest pace” did not put forth a very convincing
argument, using such phrases as “painfully slow recovery in the labor market”.
. . “economic projections are inherently uncertain”. . . . “the economy is
vulnerable to unexpected developments” . . . “the recovery is less vigorous
than we expected.”Nor did he seem confident that the Fed’s depleted arsenal of
tools to re-stimulate the economy would be effective if needed. Two of the four
possible actions he mentioned seemed to suggest consumers and markets could be
fooled into confidence with mere talk.His brief list of four possible actions
were, “1) conducting additional purchases of longer-term securities [bonds and
mortgage-related securities]; 2) modifying the Fed’s FOMC meeting
communications to investors; 3) reducing the interest the Fed pays banks on
their excess reserves. And I will also comment of a fourth strategy, proposed
by several economists- namely, that the Fed increase its inflation
goals.”Providing details on two of the four possible actions, he said, “The
Fed’s current statement after its FOMC meetings reflects the FOMC’s
anticipation that exceptionally low interest rates will be warranted ‘for an
extended period’ . . . A step the Committee could consider if conditions called
for it, would be to modify the language to communicate to investors that it
anticipates keeping the target for the federal funds rate low for a longer
period of time.”As for the fourth possible action in his list of four, he said
the Fed could alter the phrases it uses to communicate its goals for inflation
by “increasing its medium-term inflation goals above levels consistent with
price stability.”That’s scary stuff if those are two of the four actions the
Fed sees as its best options to re-stimulate the economy.Also of concern, in
its report revising Q2 GDP growth down to just 1.6%, the Commerce Department
reported that corporate earnings declined significantly in the second quarter,
after-tax earnings rising just 0.1%, compared to the gain of 11.4% in the first
quarter. Meanwhile, Wall Street continues to ratchet up its earnings
estimates.On the positive side, consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of
the economy, rose 2% in the second quarter, compared to 1.9% in the first
quarter. But the bad news is that the reports since, on consumer confidence and
retail sales in July and August, have been big disappointments.Putting it all
together, don’t be surprised if a couple of months down the road we learn the
economy was already in recession in the current quarter.’
Fed
vows to act if economy stalls (Washington Post) [ Wow!
Really! Sounds like a plan! A ‘no-recession-helicopter-ben’ plan! One former fed chair / bk. pres. (Brusca) likened no-recession-helicopter ben
bernanke’s factually deficient, empty words to ‘a doctor telling a patient he’s
not sure of what the problem is (that economic uncertainty thing no-recession-helicopter-ben referenced), but if his leg gets worse he can
always amputate’.] U.S. markets rebound on news that central bank will
step in if conditions unexpectedly worsen.
Drudgereport:
Analyst:
CITIGROUP 'Cooking the Books'...
Banks
back switch to renminbi for trade; Incentives to move from dollar and euro...
THE
SPEECH: Bernanke under pressure to prop it up...
'RECOVERY
SUMMER' ENDS SICK
GDP
REVISION: 1.6%
Says
recovery softer, Fed prepared to buy more...
Weaker
GDP raises stakes...
WIRE:
What Biden didn't
mention on stimulus...
ZUCKERMAN:
The Most Fiscally Irresponsible Government in History … along with bushes’...
Joint
Chiefs Chairman: National Debt is a Security Threat...
Recession
pushes US birth rate to new low...
RECOVERY
BUMMER: Youth employment lowest since 1948...
Thousands line up before dawn for mortgage help in Palm Beach
County...
Chossudovsky:
China could already be world’s largest economy
Is
the U.S. Bankrupt? [YES!] (at Motley Fool)
The Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts recently reported that
bankruptcy filings between April and June hit a four-year high. Consumer
bankruptcies rose 21 percent while business bankruptcies increased eight
percent. The list of corporate bankruptcies over the last couple of years
includes big names like Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual, and GM.
And financial institutions like Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) received billions of dollars
through the federal government's Troubled Asset Relief Program. Should
investors add the U.S. government to that list of big name bankruptcies? I recently asked
Boston University economics professor Lawrence Kotlikoff, author of Jimmy Stewart is Dead: Ending the World's Ongoing
Financial Plague with Limited Purpose Banking.
Mac Greer: Larry, I noticed the headline or the title of a
recent article that you wrote, US is Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It.
So with that in mind, what is your take on the economy these days?
Larry Kotlikoff: Well there is a lot of uncertainty, as
rightfully there should be. We have seen the financial sector implode basically
because of the systematic production and sale of trillions of dollars of
fraudulent securities under the cover of proprietary information, so nobody
really had the ability to look inside big companies like Bear Sterns or Merrill
Lynch to see exactly what they owned or owed. That problem remains today, even
with the passage of Dodd-Frank. There is no requirement that the financial
industry come clean with respect to what it is doing with our money, so every
major financial player says you can't see what we are doing because we have the
Midas touch. We are going to beat the market, and if we show you, everybody
will see our secret formula for making you a mint. As a result, they have a
great cover to produce fraudulent securities. And then when there is a sniff of
fraud, one can easily presume that everything they are doing is fraudulent,
which may not at all be the case. And then there is a run against those
institutions as we saw with Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers and all the other
ones because of the perception that so much of their holdings were fraudulent
and that their reporting was fraudulent. And of course the rating companies and
the regulators and the boards of directors and the members of Congress were
all, in effect, in bed with each other to achieve this result. I don't see
anything that has fundamentally changed, so that is one major area of
fragility. We could have another meltdown in the financial market tomorrow
because as Dick Fuld [Lehman former CEO] said, he claims that their balance
sheet was just fine and that this was all just a panic, it was not connected
with any facts. Well, he said that every institution on Wall Street ---
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) -- could have
experienced the same thing. His concern about this happening to other companies
is well taken. So we have a financial system that is set up to fail again, and
we have a fiscal situation which is a complete and dire mess. It could lead to
a financial panic that could lead to a much bigger meltdown of the financial
system than we have seen.
Greer: Is the U.S. bankrupt?
Kotlikoff: Bankruptcy means not being able to pay your future
bills. If you can't pay your current bills, your creditors are already after
you so you already are bankrupt. If you can't pay your future bills, that
really is the operational definition of going bankrupt or being bankrupt. The
U.S. government can't pay its future bills. These bills, in total, in present
value, exceed the revenues by $202 trillion. This is based on taking the data
projected by CBO (Congressional Budget Office) back on June 26 of this year,
when they put out their alternative fiscal scenario, which is their best
long-term projection of government spending, including servicing the official
debt, and government revenues. And if you present value the differential
between spending and revenues, including extrapolating beyond their projection
which is important to do, you get a fiscal gap of $202 trillion. To come
up with $202 trillion in present value, you'd have to immediately and
permanently double all taxes we have. You'd have to do it immediately.
We're talking here about running a 5% GDP surplus this year instead of running
a 9% deficit. So I don't see that happening. We have to cut spending or we have
to print money. Either way you're cutting spending so either way you're, in
effect, reining in spending promises. And that suits my definition of
bankruptcy. And I think there are ways of cutting spending and getting our
fiscal house in order but we need to engage in radical surgery here and not
putting on the band-aid that this administration is so fond of.
Greer: One of our Motley Fool writers recently interviewed Euro Pacific Capital President Peter
Schiff. In 2006, he was predicting the economic downturn, and he now
says that we are, "In the early stages of a depression now. It is going to
be a horrific experience for average Americans who are going to watch their
standard of living plunge." Do you agree?
Kotlikoff: Well, this has been a depression so far for
millions of Americans. It didn't have to happen. It is really man-made. We have
the same physical capital and human capital sitting here in place. We don't
have to stay in a depressed state. The problem is that things are not
coordinated. We don't have buyers optimistic about getting paid salaries and we
don't have sellers optimistic about being able to find buyers, so everybody is
kind of sitting on their hands. We can have some, a bunch of KISS's, which are "keep
it simple, stupid" solutions to our problems, and lots of people
throughout the country realize this, that we need to fix things fundamentally.
We can't do it with 2,000 page bills that make bureaucratic structures that are
basically clogging up our economic arteries, even more bureaucratic…
China
Buys Euros as Fear of World Depression Grows Webster G. Tarpley
| The one certainty is that there is no recovery, and that the second wave of a
world economic depression dominates the world.
Economy Caught in Depression, Not Recession: Rosenberg Positive
gross domestic product readings and other mildly hopeful signs are masking an
ugly truth: The US economy is in a 1930s-style Depression, Gluskin Sheff
economist David Rosenberg said Tuesday. ‘Positive gross domestic product
readings and other mildly hopeful signs are masking an ugly truth: The US
economy is in a 1930s-style Depression, Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg
said Tuesday. Writing in his daily briefing to investors, Rosenberg said the
Great Depression also had its high points, with a series of positive GDP
reports and sharp stock market gains. But then as now, those signs of recovery
were unsustainable and only provided a false sense of stability, said
Rosenberg. Rosenberg calls current economic conditions
“a depression, and not just some garden-variety recession,” and notes
that any good news both during the initial 1929-33 recession and the one that
began in 2008 triggered “euphoric response.”
Even
Tony Robbins Is Warning That An Economic Collapse Is Coming It seems like
almost everyone is warning of a coming economic collapse these days.
Why to Expect a Bipolar Market Move Next Week [Well, I don’t know about a diagnosis of
bipolar, but ‘criminally insane’; yes, that’s wall street in a nutshell.]
Bond Bubble, Dollar Doom - Embrace The Fear Says Fisher [ Riiiiight!
Sounds like a plan … to bail out the frauds on wall street as they sell their
‘hot potatoes’ in their typical ‘musical chair’ pre-crash charade! ] ‘… Hussman:
Dollar Collapse Coming: In his latest market commentary, top fund
manager John Hussman continues to express a bearish view, and says that more
quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve is likely to
trigger “an abrupt collapse in the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar”.
Hussman offers something of a primer on exchange rates, and concludes by saying
this: “The policy of quantitative easing is likely to force a large adjustment
on the U.S. dollar because the Federal Reserve is choosing to lay a heavier
hand on the Treasury bond market than would result from economic conditions
alone,” he says. “The resulting shift in interest rates and long-term inflation
prospects combine to dramatically reduce the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar.
A significant and relatively abrupt devaluation is then required, in an amount
sufficient to set up expectations of a U.S. dollar appreciation over time.” Special
Offer: People mocked Gary Shilling when he said SELL in 2006 and 2007. But he
was right and his subscribers are richer for it. Click here for Gary Shilling’s
current investment advice. As for the market, Hussman says he
continues to see unfavorable valuations, unfavorable market action, and
unfavorable economic pressures. The Fed’s new go at quantitative easing may
well limit deflationary fears, he says, which has led him to increase exposure
to precious metals and foreign currencies. Hussman also says the U.S. should
focus on restructuring debt, and offers his take on how it should do so …’
U.S. Financial System Still "Fundamentally
Corrupt," Kotlikoff Says: Here's How to Fix It ‘We have a "fundamentally corrupt
financial system" and the Dodd-Frank reform bill did nothing to change it,
says Boston University economics professor Laurence
Kotlikoff. "Relatively little has changed except there are
going to be more federal regulators who are probably going to miss major
problems." At the core of the 2008 crisis was "the production and
sale of trillions of fundamentally fraudulent securities," Kotlikoff says,
suggesting all levels of society participated in the fraud -- including
homeowners. At the center of it all were financial intermediaries (a.k.a. Wall
Street) who packaged and sold "snake oil under the guise of proprietary
information" to limit or eliminate disclosure, and enabled by corrupt
rating agencies, regulators and elected officials, he says. In the accompanying video, Kotlikoff
explains how we can "make Wall Street safe for Main Street." In short, we should transform all financial
companies with limited liability (banks, hedge funds, private equity firms and
insurance companies alike) into mutual funds, which the professor describes as
"little banks that have 100% capital requirements. " Notably, the big
mutual fund companies survived the "financial earthquake" of 2008-09
when the rest of the financial system collapsed, Kotlikoff recalls. In late
2009, Kotlikoff and Harvard's Niall Ferguson penned an op-ed for The FT describing a blueprint for
how to take moral hazard out of banking. Citing a speech by Bank of England
governor Mervyn King, Kotlikoff and Ferguson called for "limited purpose
banking" (LPB), that would "limit banks to their legitimate purpose -
financial intermediation and payment facilitation." Nine months later,
Kotlikoff remains convinced this "very simple reform" remains a much
better alternative than the financial reform bill hammered out in Washington -
with plenty of influence from Wall Street lobbyists. "We are rebuilding
[the system] out of straw rather than out of brick," Kotlikoff says,
suggesting his "LPB" proposal will ultimately be good for the economy
and provide a model for the rest of the world. "If we have a safe, sound
[financial] structure other countries will follow suit," he says.’
100-Year Bonds --- Sign of Trouble?
Even
Tony Robbins Is Warning That An Economic Collapse Is Coming It seems like
almost everyone is warning of a coming economic collapse these days.
National / World:
Saudi
couple hammer 24 hot nails into their maid after she complained of heavy
workload [Saudi Arabia is total
b*** s***. Time for displacement of the saudi mob family, and establishment of
a meaningful nation-state! They are an embarrassment to Muslims everywhere!] A
Saudi couple tortured their Sri Lankan maid by hammering 24 hot nails into her
after she complained of her heavy workload. Mrs Ariyawathi told a local
newspaper that her employers tortured her with the nails as punishment.
Drudgereport:
MORGAN
STANLEY: Government Bond Defaults Inevitable...
Roubini:
Growth to Be 'Well Below' 1% ...
New Home
Sales Sink to Lowest Pace on Record...
POLITICO:
SOME DEMS THINK HOUSE IS GONE...
INTEL
CEO blasts Obama, Dems; USA faces looming tech decline...
LETTERMAN
TURNS: 'He'll have plenty of time for vacations after his one term' … [ This
really is so true … wobama is so total, typical b*** s*** ] ...
Economy Caught in Depression, Not Recession: Rosenberg Positive
gross domestic product readings and other mildly hopeful signs are masking an
ugly truth: The US economy is in a 1930s-style Depression, Gluskin Sheff
economist David Rosenberg said Tuesday. ‘Positive gross domestic product
readings and other mildly hopeful signs are masking an ugly truth: The US
economy is in a 1930s-style Depression, Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg
said Tuesday. Writing in his daily briefing to investors, Rosenberg said the
Great Depression also had its high points, with a series of positive GDP
reports and sharp stock market gains. But then as now, those signs of recovery
were unsustainable and only provided a false sense of stability, said
Rosenberg. Rosenberg calls current economic conditions
“a depression, and not just some garden-variety recession,” and notes
that any good news both during the initial 1929-33 recession and the one that
began in 2008 triggered “euphoric response.”
Even
Tony Robbins Is Warning That An Economic Collapse Is Coming It seems like
almost everyone is warning of a coming economic collapse these days.
Why to Expect a Bipolar Market Move Next Week [Well, I don’t know about a diagnosis of
bipolar, but ‘criminally insane’; yes, that’s wall street in a nutshell.]
Bond Bubble, Dollar Doom - Embrace The Fear Says Fisher [ Riiiiight!
Sounds like a plan … to bail out the frauds on wall street as they sell their
‘hot potatoes’ in their typical ‘musical chair’ pre-crash charade! ] ‘… Hussman:
Dollar Collapse Coming: In his latest market commentary, top fund
manager John Hussman continues to express a bearish view, and says that more
quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve is likely to
trigger “an abrupt collapse in the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar”.
Hussman offers something of a primer on exchange rates, and concludes by saying
this: “The policy of quantitative easing is likely to force a large adjustment
on the U.S. dollar because the Federal Reserve is choosing to lay a heavier
hand on the Treasury bond market than would result from economic conditions
alone,” he says. “The resulting shift in interest rates and long-term inflation
prospects combine to dramatically reduce the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar.
A significant and relatively abrupt devaluation is then required, in an amount
sufficient to set up expectations of a U.S. dollar appreciation over time.” Special
Offer: People mocked Gary Shilling when he said SELL in 2006 and 2007. But he
was right and his subscribers are richer for it. Click here for Gary Shilling’s
current investment advice. As for the market, Hussman says he
continues to see unfavorable valuations, unfavorable market action, and
unfavorable economic pressures. The Fed’s new go at quantitative easing may
well limit deflationary fears, he says, which has led him to increase exposure
to precious metals and foreign currencies. Hussman also says the U.S. should
focus on restructuring debt, and offers his take on how it should do so …’
Launch
of secret US space ship masks even more secret launch of new weapon
Review of John Vaillant's
"The Tiger: A True Story of Vengeance and Survival" Montgomery [Truly
my kind of hero!](Washington Post http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/27/AR2010082702288.html?hpid=features1&hpv=national Buy this book. I will! ) [Truly my kind of hero! (As a matter of
disclosure, I like all cats, big and small!) I do believe an important point to
be gleened here is how totally primative the Chinese are which makes this
current economic scenario we’re experiencing courtesy Clinton, and particularly
the bushes, ie., (captain cia ambassador poppy) who themselves have a long
documented familial history of primative behaviors (ie., war profiteering, war
crimes, etc.; the bushes are such can’t do anything well vegetables),
especially disheartening. I mean, after all, isn’t the communist Chinese
business model, simply put, probably the most primitive one this world has ever
known; viz., slave labor. I say, boycott china products; impose tariffs,
sanctions, restrictions on the products of the primitive communist Chinese
mongrels. ]
Stepped-up
efforts fail to stem drug money (Washington Post) [ Come on! Wake up! That’s american, yes american big business.
The stuff that the war in Afghanistan is made of; viz., ie., heroin, etc..
]Stashing cash in spare tires, engine transmissions and truckloads of baby
diapers, couriers for Mexican drug cartels are moving tens of billions of
dollars in profits south across the border each year, a river of dirty money
that has overwhelmed U.S. and Mexican customs agents.
The Bush-Carlyle Connection
There’s no
business like war business
05/11/03: (Information Clearing House)
There are so many connections between the Bushes, the ‘Defence’ establishment,
the global trade in arms, that the mind boggles. That it barely gets a mention
in the mainstream media (except of course, to simply ‘report’ it) is a scandal
of the grandest proportions. But it only goes to show the power of big business
and the political class they have installed in both the US and the UK..
Former
FBI Agent Reveals New Angle On Kennedy Assassination [bush, typically, was involved up to his
eyeballs, and ‘knuck’ (knucklehead not-to-bright ford) the typical go along to get along. ]‘… Despite
the threat and possibility of a conspiracy to assassinate the president, the
FBI and Secret Service allowed Kennedy to travel to Dallas. “[They] should have
stopped the President from traveling instantly,” said Adams.
bush/Carlyle
cont’d … (after all, John Major is employed by the Carlyle Group and BAE
Systems, the major arms supplier to the UK, is part-owned by Carlyle). Not only
the connections beggar belief but the sheer hypocrisy of the Bush government
should put it in a new category in the Guinness Book of Records! As you’ll see
from just of a few of the links to information on Carlyle below, their
tentacles extend to many of the armed conflicts going on in the world. There’s
no business like war business!
I’ve presented
them in no particular order, the common denominator is the Bush family.
"Arms
Buildup Enriches Firm Staffed by Big Guns"
Defense:
Ex-president and other elites are behind weapon-boosting Carlyle Group.
By Mark
Fineman, Times Staff Writer January 10 2002
Source: http://www.truthout.org/docs_01/01.11F.Arms.Carlyle.htm
"The Best
Enemies Money Can Buy"
From Hitler To
Saddam Hussein to Osama bin Laden - Insider Connections and the Bush Family's
Partnership with Killers of Americans
Brown
Brothers, Harriman - BNL- and the Carlyle Group By Michael C. Ruppert
Source: http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/10_09_01_carlyle.html
"Legal
Group Blasts Papa Shrub on Bin Laden Link"
Bush Sr. Could
Profit From War by Geoffrey Gray October 11th, 2001, Village Voice
Source: http://www.villagevoice.com/issues/0141/gray.php
"BUSH WATCH…BUSH
MONEY"
Source: http://www.bushwatch.com/bushmoney.htm
"CHRONOLOGY:
The Bushes And The Carlyle Group" Bushnews.com
Source: http://www.bushnews.com/bushcarlyle.htm
"The
Bush-Carlyle Group Archive" Buzzflash
A link to a
number of links on the Carlyle Group
Source: http://www.buzzflash.com/perspectives/2002/Bush-Carlyle.html
Carlyle's way
Making a mint inside "the iron triangle" of defense, government, and
industry. By Dan Briody January 8, 2002 Red Herring
Source: http://www.redherring.com/vc/2002/0111/947.html
"The
Carlyle Group" Spectrazine
Alfred Mendes
looks at a single US investment corporation and asks some pertinent questions
about democracy, terrorism and power.
Source: http://www.spectrezine.org/global/carlyle.htm
"Crony
Reform" Slate
How the access
capitalists at the Carlyle Group became real businessmen.
By Daniel
Gross Tuesday, April 15, 2003
Source: http://slate.msn.com/id/2081572/
"The Big
Guns: The Carlyle Group and Defense Lobbying" OpenSecrets.org
Source: http://www.opensecrets.org/alerts/v6/alertv6_52.asp
"The
Carlyle Group; Elder Bush in Big G.O.P. Cast Toiling for Top Equity Firm"
by Leslie Wayne Monday, March 5, 2001, New York Times
Source: http://www.commondreams.org/headlines01/0305-03.htm
"The
Pakistan-India conflict is being funded and fomented by the same faces that
brought you the war on terrorism"
A particularly
evil manifestation of the arms business is the one in the on-going low
intensity war between in India and Pakistan and the Carlyle Group’s role in it
Source: http://www.propagandamatrix.com/pakistan_india.html
"US arms
group heads for Lisbon: The Carlyle Group, integrated by the Bush and bin Laden
families awarded a billion dollar contract to "rebuild Iraq", 6
April 2003
Source: http://globalresearch.ca/articles/NEW304A.html
"Bush's
Favorite Terrorist Buddy & Carlyle Group (Bush, Sr. Etc) Profits Increasing
From Afghan War"
Source: http://www.apfn.org/apfn/WTC_profits.htm
"Former
President Bush Works for International Investment Firm With Ties To Saudi
Arabia" - Company Had Bin Laden Family Connections Judicial Watch
Source: http://www.judicialwatch.org/1685.shtml
"Meet the
Carlyle Group"
How will
President George W. Bush personally make million$, if not billion$ from the War
on Terror? The easy way. He’ll inherit it. Former World Leaders and Washington
Insiders Making Billions in the War on Terrorism
Source: http://www.angelfire.com/indie/pearly/htmls/bush-carlyle.html
"Carlyle
group scandal"
Source: http://linkthing.com/screed/carlyle_group_cluster.html
WIKIPEDIA http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlyle_Group ‘The Carlyle Group is a global private equity investment firm, based in Washington, D.C., with more than $84.5 billion of equity capital under management, diversified over 64 different funds as of March 31, 2009.[1] The firm operates four fund families, focusing on leveraged buyouts, growth capital, real estate and leveraged finance investments. The firm employs more than 890 employees, including 495 investment professionals in 20 countries with several offices in the Americas, Europe, Asia and Australia; its portfolio companies employ more than 415,000 people worldwide. Carlyle has over 1300 investors in 71 countries. Carlyle was ranked in 2007 as the largest private equity firm in the world, according to a ranking called the PEI 50 based on capital under management.[2] However, the firm moved down to second largest as of May 2010.[3] …’
New-home
sales hit a 40-year low | Your
take (Washington Post) [ A 40 yr low? … At least it’s a record, say the
frauds on wall street and how much worse can it be? Much worse, says reality! Economy Caught in Depression, Not Recession: Rosenberg / Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman
says the US is in the "early stages of a third Great Depression.
]
Fed
policy is foggy as economic picture clouds (Washington
Post) [ Wow! Look to ‘no recession helicopter ben for guidance’? You’re hurting
my ears and eyes, again. Meanwhile, everyone’s waiting for buh, buh, buh, benny
and his jets to say no depression. At least we’ll be able to add certainty,
albeit the opposite of what he says. But the fact is already that, ‘This is a global depression. This is a
secular bear market in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated
bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically
manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that
the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into.’ ] With housing market retreating,
unemployment lingering and Fed officials in open disagreement, markets look to
Bernanke for guidance.
Economy Caught in Depression, Not Recession: Rosenberg
Even
Tony Robbins Is Warning That An Economic Collapse Is Coming It seems like
almost everyone is warning of a coming economic collapse these days.
Why to Expect a Bipolar Market Move Next Week [Well, I don’t know about a diagnosis of
bipolar, but ‘criminally insane’; yes, that’s wall street in a nutshell.]
Bond Bubble, Dollar Doom - Embrace The Fear Says Fisher [ Riiiiight!
Sounds like a plan … to bail out the frauds on wall street as they sell their
‘hot potatoes’ in their typical ‘musical chair’ pre-crash charade! ] ‘… Hussman:
Dollar Collapse Coming: In his latest market commentary, top fund
manager John Hussman continues to express a bearish view, and says that more
quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve is likely to
trigger “an abrupt collapse in the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar”.
Hussman offers something of a primer on exchange rates, and concludes by saying
this: “The policy of quantitative easing is likely to force a large adjustment
on the U.S. dollar because the Federal Reserve is choosing to lay a heavier
hand on the Treasury bond market than would result from economic conditions
alone,” he says. “The resulting shift in interest rates and long-term inflation
prospects combine to dramatically reduce the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar.
A significant and relatively abrupt devaluation is then required, in an amount
sufficient to set up expectations of a U.S. dollar appreciation over time.” Special
Offer: People mocked Gary Shilling when he said SELL in 2006 and 2007. But he
was right and his subscribers are richer for it. Click here for Gary Shilling’s
current investment advice. As for the market, Hussman says he
continues to see unfavorable valuations, unfavorable market action, and
unfavorable economic pressures. The Fed’s new go at quantitative easing may
well limit deflationary fears, he says, which has led him to increase exposure
to precious metals and foreign currencies. Hussman also says the U.S. should
focus on restructuring debt, and offers his take on how it should do so …’
Even
Tony Robbins Is Warning That An Economic Collapse Is Coming It seems like
almost everyone is warning of a coming economic collapse these days.
Second
Hindenburg Omen Confirmation In As Many Days, Third H.O. Event In One Week
Jim
Rogers: If You Want Your Family To Be Silly Rich In The Future, Then Leave
America And Move To Asia Now As you may know, Jim Rogers moved to Singapore
in 2007, though he maintains a residence in the U.S. as well.
U.S. Financial System Still "Fundamentally
Corrupt," Kotlikoff Says: Here's How to Fix It ‘We have a "fundamentally corrupt
financial system" and the Dodd-Frank reform bill did nothing to change it,
says Boston University economics professor Laurence
Kotlikoff. "Relatively little has changed except there are going
to be more federal regulators who are probably going to miss major
problems." At the core of the 2008 crisis was "the production and
sale of trillions of fundamentally fraudulent securities," Kotlikoff says,
suggesting all levels of society participated in the fraud -- including
homeowners. At the center of it all were financial intermediaries (a.k.a. Wall
Street) who packaged and sold "snake oil under the guise of proprietary
information" to limit or eliminate disclosure, and enabled by corrupt
rating agencies, regulators and elected officials, he says. In the accompanying video, Kotlikoff
explains how we can "make Wall Street safe for Main Street." In short, we should transform all financial
companies with limited liability (banks, hedge funds, private equity firms and
insurance companies alike) into mutual funds, which the professor describes as
"little banks that have 100% capital requirements. " Notably, the big
mutual fund companies survived the "financial earthquake" of 2008-09
when the rest of the financial system collapsed, Kotlikoff recalls. In late
2009, Kotlikoff and Harvard's Niall Ferguson penned an op-ed for The FT describing a blueprint for
how to take moral hazard out of banking. Citing a speech by Bank of England
governor Mervyn King, Kotlikoff and Ferguson called for "limited purpose
banking" (LPB), that would "limit banks to their legitimate purpose -
financial intermediation and payment facilitation." Nine months later,
Kotlikoff remains convinced this "very simple reform" remains a much
better alternative than the financial reform bill hammered out in Washington -
with plenty of influence from Wall Street lobbyists. "We are rebuilding [the
system] out of straw rather than out of brick," Kotlikoff says, suggesting
his "LPB" proposal will ultimately be good for the economy and
provide a model for the rest of the world. "If we have a safe, sound
[financial] structure other countries will follow suit," he says.’
Home
sales drop to lowest level in 15 years [ Get those foreclosure sales
rollin’ say the frauds on wall street who will spin same to their market-frothing
delight! ]
100-Year Bonds --- Sign of Trouble?
Even
Tony Robbins Is Warning That An Economic Collapse Is Coming It seems like
almost everyone is warning of a coming economic collapse these days.
National / World:
Drudgereport:
MORGAN
STANLEY: Government Bond Defaults Inevitable...
Roubini:
Growth to Be 'Well Below' 1% ...
New Home
Sales Sink to Lowest Pace on Record...
POLITICO:
SOME DEMS THINK HOUSE IS GONE...
INTEL
CEO blasts Obama, Dems; USA faces looming tech decline...
LETTERMAN
TURNS: 'He'll have plenty of time for vacations after his one term' … [ This
really is so true … wobama is so total, typical b*** s*** ] ...
Drudgereport: GALLUP GENDER GAP: Obama's
Approval Among Men Hits All-Time Low of 39%...
LOBOTOMY JOE BIDEN: 'We're
moving in right direction'… Right lobotomy joe, anything you say! ...
Worries about recovery
deepen...
'Hindenburg Omen' creator
exits stock market...
Economy in 'Depression, Not Recession'...
Dow Faces 'Bouncy Ride to 5,000'...
Typical Slow Summer -- or Something Darker?
Drop in Home Sales Renews
Pricing Fears...
Investors Scatter to
Safety...
Unemployed group blasts
Geithner's handling of economy...
BOEHNER URGES OBAMA TO
FIRE...
'Government as community
organizer' has failed...
LA UNVEILS $578 MILLION
SCHOOL
More Expensive Than China's
Olympic Stadium!
California Delays $2.9
Billion School, County Payments Amid Budget Impasse...
'Beat Whitey Night': Iowa
racial attacks at state fair... POLICE REPORTS...
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be complete
(but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Did Google Block “Barry
Soetoro” Search Term? Screenshots obtained by a Prison Planet reader suggest
that Google may have moved to de-list “Barry Soetoro” as a popular search term
shortly after it rose to the top of the Google Trends charts after yesterday’s
effort by radio talk show host Alex Jones to focus attention on Barack Obama’s
real name.
100-Year Bonds --- Sign of Trouble?
Monday in the Markets: MOJO Extremes The decline in yields is overdone, gold is
overbought, and crude oil and the euro are oversold. The Dow is not
oversold.The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury tested 2.531 on Friday versus my
quarterly risky level at 2.495. Gold tested $1239.5 last week and today’s risky
level is $1241.7. For Crude oil this week’s pivot is $73.59 with my annual
pivot at $77.05. The euro is below its 50-day simple moving average at 1.2739
this morning. For the Dow today’s value level is 9,983 with the 50-day simple
moving average at 10,303, and weekly and annual pivots at 10.358 and 10,379.
10-Year Note – (2.612) My annual pivot is 2.813 with a weekly pivot at 2.574
and daily risky level at 2.507. My annual value level is 2.999 with quarterly
and semiannual risky levels at 2.495 and 2.249. Note that the decline
in yield is extremely overdone [charts] …
World Indices / Week ended
August 20, 2010 Yahoo Finance
BEAR MARKET MATH - JULY LOWS IN
DANGER , On Friday August
20, 2010, 4:53 pm EDT ‘
1+1=2
2+2=4
The simplicity
and accuracy of those calculations is undeniable. How about this equation?
Fundamental Weakness + Technical Sell Signals + Overpriced Stocks = Lower Stock
Prices. This calculation also seems to be simple and accurate. Let's look at
some equations that don't make sense.
1+1=3 or Better Earnings = Higher Stock Prices Earnings season is over. Most companies
beat earnings but issued cautious forecasts. This is particularly true of the
tech (NYSEArca: XLK - News)
and financial sectors (NYSEArca: XLF - News).
By large, profits are still driven by cost-cutting, not organic growth. Retail
sales, which make up about one third of the economy, continued to fall after
the second quarter ended. Additionally, the expectation that taxes will go up
might have moved some companies to pull some of next year's income into this
year. This can't be good for Q3 and Q4 profits. As the chart below shows,
positive earnings reports are not bullish for stocks, especially if future
guidance is weak.[chart]
2+2=5 or Weaker than Expected Economy = Rising Stock Prices On July 30, the Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA) lowered the previous quarter's Gross Domestic Product (GD) growth from an
estimated 2.7% to 2.4%. But it didn't stop there. The real GDP for all three
previous years was revised as well. It was lowered by 0.2% for 2007, it was
lowered by 0.6% for 2008, and it was lowered by 0.4% for 2009. In percentage
terms, the real GDP for 2007 was revised down from 2.5% growth to 2.3%. The
2008 decrease was lowered from 1.9% to 2.8% and 2009 growth was revised up from
a 0.1% to a 0.2% increase. In essence, the BEA proved that the recession was
(or is) much deeper than perceived and the alleged recovery much weaker than
previously reported. This comes as no surprise, as the key sector of the
financial debacle - real estate (NYSEArca: IYR
- News)
- remains in a funk. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that the number of vacant
properties, including foreclosures, residences for sale, and vacation homes,
reached 18.9 million. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continue to lose money. Has
anyone ever wondered how banks (NYSEArca: KBE
- News)
can make money on the same kind of loans that pushed Fannie and Freddie to the
brink of ruin? Since bad real estate loans triggered the post 2007 economic
meltdown, how can the economy recover without real estate leading the way?
3+3=7 or Positive
Analyst Estimates = Higher Stock Prices A recent Associated Press article observed that 'analysts
only seem to hit the mark with their estimates in the strongest economic times
(2003 - 2006).' Why? 'The problem is that analysts get most of their
information from the companies they cover. Corporate managers have every
incentive to stay positive for as long as they can.' Is that true; as true as
1+1=2? On April 26, the day the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) topped at 1,219, the Dow
(DJI: ^DJI) at 11,258, the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) at 2,535, Bloomberg reported
the following: 'U.S. stocks cheapest since 1990 on analyst estimates.' Contrary
to analyst estimates, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter stated that 'the
potential exists that Monday's high marked a significant top.' Since April, the
broad market (NYSEArca: TWM - News)
dropped as much as 17%. In March 2009, with the Dow below 7000 and the S&P
below 700, analysts lowered their earnings forecasts from $113 in April 2008 to
$40. On March 2nd, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter sent out a Trend Change
Alert and recommended to buy long and leveraged long ETFs such as the Ultra
Financial (NYSEArca: UYG - News)
and Ultra S&P 500 ProShares (NYSEArca: SSO
- News).
If you care to know, analysts estimate that earnings for the S&P 500 will
exceed their 2006 all-time high, in 2011. Based on that assumption, stocks are
cheap. How about that for flawed math?
4+4=9 or Technical Sell Signals = Higher Stock Prices The 200-day moving average (MA) is one
of the best-known technical indicators, as it provides delineation between
technically healthy and sick stocks. On May 20, the S&P closed below the
200-day MA for the first time since late 2007. Every attempt to rally and stay
above it has since failed miserably. On July 2, the 50-day MA for the S&P
dropped below its 200-day MA for the first time since late 2007. The same holds
true for mid caps (NYSEArca: MDY - News),
small caps (NYSEArca: IWM - News)
and nearly all individual sector indexes. For good reason, this is called a
Death Cross. Over the past ten years, the death cross has been accurate 75% of
the time, with a 19.72% average return on six winning trades and 6.95% average
return on two losing trades. In addition to the Death Cross, there are two head
and shoulders patterns, one in the making for over 10 years, and the other has
the breadth suggestive of a major meltdown (see September ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter).
5+5=11 or Overvalued Stocks = Higher Prices As explained above, based on overly
optimistic earnings estimates, analysts believe that stocks are cheap. Rather
than basing a future outlook on estimates, it makes sense to use facts as a
foundation for any outlook. Why add an extra variable to what's already an
unpredictable market? Ask Yale Professor Robert Shiller, who's done extensive
research on the subject of valuations, and he'll tell you stocks are
historically overvalued based on the current P/E ratio. Compare today's P/E
ratio with the P/E ratio seen at major market bottoms, and you'll see that
stocks are overvalued by more than 50%. Another gauge that doesn't lie is
dividend yields. A company's dividends are a direct reflection of cash flow and
financial health. The current yield is 2.65% for the Dow and 2.05% for the
S&P. Even value funds like the iShares Russell 1000 Value (NYSEArca: IWD
- News)
yield only a measly 2.08%. Dividends are close to their all-time low set in
1999 (we know what happened then). This means that companies are cash strapped
or overvalued. Looking at a long-term chart of dividend yields plotted against
stock prices shows clearly that markets don't bottom until dividends skyrocket.
Just as ice doesn't thaw unless the temperature moves above 32 degrees, the
economy won't thaw and show signs of life unless P/E ratios drop to, and
dividend yields rise to, levels seen at major market tops. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
includes a detailed analysis of four valuation metrics, along with short-term
target ranges for stocks and the ultimate market bottom. Based on simple math
and common sense, the July lows are certainly in danger. But it doesn't stop
there.’
DOES HISTORY REPEAT, RHYME OR JUST HAVE COINCIDENCES? Lounsbury: ‘… Has anything of economic utility resulted? I have
not found it. And counter to the effect of the dot.com collapse, the credit
bubble collapse may not have stripped out some of the speculative income
excesses. Wall Street bonuses are back to pre-crisis levels and there has been
no "claw-back" of ill-gotten gains from the pirates who seized the
economic ship. In fact, the pirates are still in command of the ship and are
still under full sail. Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum! From my first Treasury report:
… the problem was that our systems,
especially in finance and health care, are too heavily focused on pay for
transactions rather than pay for outcomes. I didn’t have the presence of mind
to bring instant gratification into the discussion, but that would have
certainly made my thought process clearer.
I don't think this created any waves,
but I will continue to wail in the wilderness about how compensation formulas
contribute to and compound the structural problems in our financial system. So,
back to the earnings chart that started this discussion. In view of what has
been discussed here I believe we will find that history, in this instance, will
at least rhyme, if not repeat exactly. Structural economic problems are
sufficiently similar for the two eras that I expect we will see some form of
recurrence of events 5 and 6 [Depression] …’
DISMANTLING BULLISH ARGUMENTS …
Bull Market Argument #1 - Stocks are Cheap Even though the
economy is in the worst shape since the Great Depression, economists at large
believe that stocks (NYSEArca: IVV - News)
are cheap … We've previously analyzed the folly of relying on projected
earnings forecasts and therefore, will only pose two more facts as food for
thought before moving onto the next argument. Even if earnings are
positive the market can decline, as we've seen with the 9% and 17% declines in
January and May. Most of the earnings growth has been fueled by cost-cutting,
not organic growth. What does that tell us about the sustainability of growth?
Bull Market Argument #2 - Cash on the Sidelines Cash on the
sideline is viewed as bullish because, theoretically, it can be used to buy
stocks and drive up prices. Some distinguish between corporate cash and retail
cash on the sidelines. Many forget that for every dollar in cash, there is a
debt that has to be repaid. According to the Federal Reserve, nonfinancial
firms' debt totals $7.2 trillion, the highest level ever. As far as retail
investors go, the current debt-income ratio is at 126%. The pre-bubble average
was around 70%. To get back to the pre-bubble norm, about $6 trillion worth of
debt would have to be eliminated. Retail money in money market funds is
currently around the same level as it was in 2006/2007. Is that bullish?
Debunking the Bond Myth No doubt there's been a migration from
investment dollars out of stocks and into bonds and gold… Bonds - especially
corporate high yield bonds - could soon assume the role real estate had in
2006. Many thought that real estate (NYSEArca: IYR
- News)
will always go up. As it turns out, real estate prices can move in both
directions, as can bond prices.
A Closer Look at Gold What about gold? … The previous cash
level low was recorded in August of 2007. We know what happened then. Rather
than focusing on the sideline cash, perhaps we should focus on the trillions of
dollars still in the market. More selling means lower prices.
'Stocks are Cheap' vs. Realistic Valuations Using projected
earnings to determine the markets real value is like counting chickens that
have yet to hatch. Things change, and as studies have shown, analysts and
economist are usually the last to discern that change. Market forecasting based
on solid facts is tricky enough, but basing forecasts on thin assumptions
usually translates into financial suicide… Stock market tops when P/E ratios
are high, dividend yields are low and mutual fund cash reserves are low. Over
the past year, we have seen P/E ratios at an all-time high, dividend yields
close to their 1999 low, and mutual fund cash levels at an all-time low. In addition,
we have also seen investor optimism soar to levels reminiscent of 2000 and
2007…
Drudgereport:
NEW LOW
FOR O: GALLUP DAILY SHOWS OBAMA 41% APPROVE, 52% DIS...
'Allahu
Akbar!' Iran test fires new missile...
'Al-Qaida
prepares for Israel-Iran war'...
US
Assures Israel Nuclear Iran Isn't Imminent...
Israel
tells UN it will stop new Gaza aid flotilla...
Lebanon
refuses to bow to warning...
CHICAGOLAND:
ShoreBank Closed by FDIC...
...strong
ties to Obama administration
USA
DEBT: $13,310,379,000,000.00
$44,000 PER CITIZEN...
NEW
JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE TO 500,000...
Highest
level in 9 months...
CBO:
DEFICIT 9.1% OF GDP... DEVELOPING...
Homeowners
Expect Home Values to Fall More...
Celente:
Stock Market Crash Before End of 2010 Gerald Celente believes that the stock market will crash before
the end of 2010 , gold will soar.
Fed
Official Admits the Fed Starts Boom/Bust Cycles There are all kinds of
things awry with this article…
Bulls Scatter ... Again ‘At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we wanted to once again
highlight the lack of conviction among investors and advisors in the current
market environment. Following the July rally, bullish sentiment based on the Investors
Intelligence weekly survey jumped to its highest level since May. Then
last week, the S&P 500 dropped more than 3% and the bulls scattered. In
this week's survey, bullish sentiment declined 12% for its largest weekly
decline since the flash crash…’
Know Your Indicators: Hindenburg Omen ‘…Below we outline the five criteria (taken from Zero Hedge) that need to be satisfied in order
for the indicator to be triggered. They are:
Another Round of POMO: Dave's Daily ‘…Thursday we'll get another round of Uncle Sugar's
special blend via more POMO (Permanent Open Market Operations). This private
label brew will go directly to the Primary Dealers (dba: Da Boyz) who will use
it to trade as before…’
More Fuel For a Bigger Decline , On Tuesday
August 17, 2010, 4:18 pm EDT A
French proverb states that a fault denied is committed twice. Denial, as
blissful as it is for the time being, does not serve as protection against the
inevitable.A perfect example of denial is the May 6 flash crash. Neither Wall
Street, the financial media, nor investors wanted to see the danger of such a
meltdown beforehand. After it happened, they were in denial about the cause.
Denial is Bliss
The
simple truth is that the market was ripe for a major correction. A few weeks
before the flash crash, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted the extremely
low CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio and warned: 'It seems that only a minority of
equity positions are equipped with a put safety net. Once prices do fall and
investors do get afraid of incurring losses, the only option is to sell.
Selling, results in more selling. This negative feedback loop usually results
in rapidly falling prices.' As it turns out, there was no clumsy-fingered trader
at fault for the decline that reduced the Dow (DJI: ^DJI) by more than 1,000
points in one day. If it had been a simple error, stocks wouldn't have fallen
to new lows after the flash crash. If it had been a simple error, the S&P
(SNP: ^GSPC) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) wouldn't still be trading below the
flash crash close.
The Reality of Denial
But,
that's the power of denial. Since the April 26 highs, the S&P has been
moving from lower highs to lower lows. On July 1, the S&P had arrived at
1,011. The ensuing rally lifted the markets by nearly 10%, but failed to push
the S&P and Nasdaq above the July 21 highs. The July 21 highs failed to
move above the May 12 highs. The May 12 highs were significantly short of the
April 26 highs. Despite the obvious downtrend, investors get as excited about
dead end bounces as ever. This is not a bullish omen. In fact, according to the
ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter's technical analysis, the steepest leg of the
decline is still ahead. Before we look at more technical details, let's browse
through some fundamental factors that reflect the current state of denial:
Don't Worry About Bank Failures
111
banks were added to the FDIC's failed bank list thus far in 2010. At the same
time last year, only 76 banks had been shut down. According to an FDIC press
release, Metro Bank of Dade County had total assets of $442.3 million and total
deposits of $391.3 million. Assets outweigh liabilities by $51 million. That's
good, but apparently not accurate. According to the FDIC's press release, closing
Metro Bank will cost the FDIC $67.6 million. Why? Because an accounting trick
allows banks to artificially inflate their assets. The accounting trick allowed
this small bank to overstate its assets by about 25%. Other banks on the FDIC
list overstated their assets by more than 50%. Imagine the size of the problem,
considering that the four biggest banks (NYSEArca: KBE
- News)
of the country have about $7.5 trillion in combined assets. We should also
point out that none of those losses technically affect earnings, at least not
yet (for a detailed analysis refer to the June issue of the ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter).
Don't Worry About Falling Real Estate
The
National Association of Home Builders reported that its monthly reading of
builder's sentiment about the housing market sank to 14, the lowest level since
March 2009. Unlike other economic indicators, this index is taken from builders
that have their finger on the pulse of Main Street and is forward looking.
Despite the rally in equities (NYSEArca: VTI
- News)
and real estate (NYSEArca: IYR - News),
homebuilders (NYSEArca: XHB - News)
never really saw light at the end of the tunnel.
Don't Worry About Foreclosures
According
to RealtyTrac, more than 1 million American households are likely to lose their
homes to foreclosure this year. This is about 10 times as high as during an
average year. 25% of the U.S. household sector has a sub-600 FICO score. Yet,
Fannie Mae is offering financing to first-time buyers who only have a $1,000
down-payment. Nearly $150 billion have been spent to keep the doors of Fannie,
Freddie and company open. Does it make sense to artificially extend the
life of a patient destined to die? In the case of Fannie, politicians seem to
think that lending more money and ultimately creating more toxic assets will
solve the problems. Even a third grader understands the irony of that concept.
Denial is alive and well.
Don't Worry About Bankrupt States
States
are in trouble. The bigger the state, the bigger the trouble it seems.
California has a $1.8 trillion economy. If CA was a country, its economy would
be the seventh biggest in the world, bigger than Russia. But, CA has no money.
CNN reports that as many as 200,000 state workers in CA could see their pay
scale slashed to minimum wage, if orders from the governor's office are
followed. You don't need to be one of the 200,000 to know that is bad. To go
from state salary to minimum wage is a huge drop.
Don't Worry About Falling Prices
Look
around and you see a general downtrend develop: U.S. stocks (NYSEArca: IWB
- News),
international stocks (NYSEArca: EFA - News)
and emerging market stocks (NYSEArca: EEM
- News).
The same applies to commodities (NYSEArca: DBC
- News),
real estate prices (NYSEArca: RWR - News)
and consumer goods. The above-mentioned 'don't worries' all contribute to the
deflationary spiral (see image below for a visual). Unemployment remains high
because businesses have no pricing power. This leads to lower income, default
foreclosures, and ultimately even higher unemployment. Even Bernanke knows,
there is no easy fix to a deflationary cycle. Once engrained, it feeds on
itself. [chart]
Don't Worry About Death Crosses
A death cross is one of the most powerful technical indicators. It occurs when the shorter simple moving average (SMA) crosses below the longer SMA. Over the last few weeks we saw literally dozens of such death crosses. Most notable was the S&P, Dow Jones and Nasdaq experiencing not only a death cross created by the 50 and 200-day SMA, but also courtesy of the 10 and 40-week SMA. Despite the rally from the July lows, the sell signal triggered by the various death crosses remained active. The fact that the Dow Jones was the only major index to rally above the June 21 highs provides an additional bearish non-confirmation. Over the past ten years, the buy/sell action triggered by the SMA crosses has a success rate of 75% - 100%. Winning trades outperformed losing trades by a ratio of at least 3:1. In investing, those are not the kind of odds you want to bet against. In other words, it's time to face reality and abandon denial. Leading up to the April highs, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted a pinnacle of denial which was reflected by investors' outright enthusiasm about stocks. At a time when approximately 8 of 10 investment advisors and newsletter writers were bullish on stocks, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted: 'The message conveyed by the composite bullishness is unmistakably bearish. The pieces are in place for a major decline.' Since April 26, the major indexes dropped as much as 17%. Despite the recent rally, this seems to have been only the first installment of a significant decline. This decline is now in progress. In fact, the August issue of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter explains the one chart-pattern that explains why the next leg down will be strong and powerful. A British Historian noted decades ago that a wise person does at once what a fool does at last. Both do the same thing; only at different times. Will you get out of the markets way in time, or too late?
Here’s a new piece of the dismally murky puzzle which belies
a previous raison d’etre for rally: Greek
Bonds Slump As Austerity Backfires, Country Enters “Death Spiral”, And The
Violent End Game Approaches . Previously, Walmart same store sales were actually down (overseas
results were up), and, think about it. Isn’t Walmart, as essentially an
american based sales agent of china products a ‘contrarian indicator’ for the
the u.s.; that is , hasn’t Walmart’s rise coincided with american main street’s
demise. Similarly, fraudulent wall street high frequency churn and earn
programmed trade scams among many other
frauds as yet unprosecuted has heralded the death knell for american
business and the economy, generally. Old news at best and, that ‘not bad as expected, better than expected dog
don’t hunt no more’! ‘YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]:
… Retailers were also strong. As a group retailers climbed 1.8%. Discount
retail giant and Dow component Wal-Mart (WMT 51.02, +0.61) was
a solid performer on the back of in-line earnings and an improved
forecast. Home improvement retailer and
fellow Dow component Home Depot (HD 28.31, +0.93) had
a more positive influence over retailers. It posted better-than-expected
earnings for the latest quarter, but issued a rather mixed forecast. A
smaller-than-expected increase in housing starts during July didn't do anything
to derail the stock this session. Housing starts for July increased 1.7%
month-over-month to an annualized rate of 546,000 units, which is less than the
rate of 555,000 units that had been widely anticipated. Building permits for
July fell 3.1% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 565,000, which is
below the rate of 573,000 that had been expected…’ But, just a push of the computer programmed trade button and off we go,
reality / valuation / economics be damned. In real security analysis (very
simplified / summarized), as opposed to the continued frauds on wall street,
one must begin with the largest and most significant aggregate (a simple word
picture / analogy: ‘rising tide lifts all boats’). If you get this right, the
probabilities in your favor are substantially enhanced. From there, you want
leading industries, and leading companies within said leading industries
(again, larger aggregates then picks, to enhance probabilities, not guarantees,
in your favor). Your time frame, 1-3-5 yrs tops for projections, (including
income statement/EPS, balance sheet, and applying an appropriate P/E – a
detailed, multi-faceted approach beyond what could be described in this
summary); and, that’s all they are, projections. Beyond that time frame, your
guess. On fraudulent wall street, every day, though already discounted in large
part (6-8 mos, approx.), the market spins, churns, and with lightning fast
computerized high-frequency trade programs commissions in huge volumes like no
other time in financial history when real valuation meant something, with no
net economic value added, but very lucrative to the frauds on wall street,
which ultimately is a net detriment to the economy / the nation /and other
industries as we’ve seen and as described elsewhere on this site and in these
posts http://albertpeia.com
. Preposterously, they even sometimes refer to seasonal factors as if hearing
them for the first time and ‘explaining’ an up move (almost invariably already
discounted). Today, they shrugged off the deepening economic reality despite the
election year frothing / manipulations. This
is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression.
The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market.
This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes
with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and
sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato
scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise,
will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are
criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. ].
Are You Ready
For How Bad It Will Get? Graham Summers
| ‘There are numerous components in the latest GDP number that are extremely
suspect. The vast majority of investors
are going to be taken to the cleaners. I realize this view is far from the consensus. Even
those who are in the bear camp aver that the Stimulus did in fact bring us out
of recession at least temporarily.
However,
I would strongly contend that the recovery was in fact non-existent for the
following reasons:
1. The Government data used to validate
the recovery (GPD, unemployment, etc) is clearly massaged if not bordering on
outright propaganda
2. We are in fact in a depression and
the “recovery” was simply a bounce in economic activity taking place within the
context of a larger economy contraction
Regarding #1, every Government data
point used in promoting the “recovery” had some degree of fudging in it. Let’s
consider GDP for instance.
There are numerous devious tactics used
to overstate GDP growth, however, the most obvious gimmick the BLS uses is
overstating GPD growth in the present and then revising it lower in the
subsequent quarters.’
Kaufman on High Frequency Trading ‘Sen. Ted Kaufman (D., Del.) has been banging the drum on the need for
regulatory changes to high frequency trading for a while. His latest
thoughts on the matter take the form of a letter to SEC Chairwoman Mary Schapiro
urging — among other things — major high-frequency trading firms be
required to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Dow Jones Newswires’ Jacob Bunge reports:…’
Deceptive
Economic Statistics: While the economists lied the US economy died Paul Craig Roberts | The
bought-and-paid-for-economists got all the media forums for a decade. While
they lied, the US economy died.
Manufacturing,
housing sectors exhibit diverging fortunes (Washington Post) I’d say understatement but I truly don’t
know what this headline means juxtaposed with ‘fortunes’.
Google
Yanks “Kill The Web” Article That Warned Of Internet Takeover Having at
first appeared as normal, our earlier article about Google’s plan to kill the
web has been completely de-listed from Google News. This is completely
unprecedented and underscores how keen Google is to prevent people from finding
out that it is a CIA-NSA front that is preparing to completely end the Internet
as we know it with the Verizon net-neutrality killing deal.
Drudgereport:
NEW LOW
FOR O: GALLUP DAILY SHOWS OBAMA 41% APPROVE, 52% DIS...
NEW
JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE TO 500,000...
Highest
level in 9 months...
CBO:
DEFICIT 9.1% OF GDP... DEVELOPING...
Homeowners
Expect Home Values to Fall More...
Death of
the 'McMansion': Era of Huge Homes Is Over...
Bankruptcies
Reach Nearly 5-Year High...
REPORT:
China targets U.S. troops with arms buildup...
Military
power growing...
Pentagon
warning...
Risky
game on the high seas...
How
long can America fend off the dragon?
'Without
a revolution, Americans are history'...
From Good to Mediocre ‘Through last Friday, 2,127 US companies had reported quarterly
numbers this earnings season. What started out as a strong earnings season is
going out with a whimper (earnings season ends tomorrow with Wal-Mart's report)…’
High Probability for Lower Market Prices Ahead ‘…Economic numbers being what they are (very poor), we
should expect a downward revision of second quarter GDP to 1.5% from the
originally disappointing number of 2.4%. As more data is being released it is
apparent that we are witnessing even further deterioration here in the third
quarter…We may have reached a tipping point where many are tired of others
being the benefactors of taxpayer money …’
Gold Providing Safety During Market Downturn ‘ … The death cross occurs when the 50
day moving average crosses the 200 day moving average on the downside. These
patterns, when combined with other technical indicators can predict major
market downturns…THE ODDS OF A LONG TERM DOWNTREND ARE
BECOMING HIGHLY PROBABLE. THESE SIGNALS COULD POSSIBLY INDICATE THE START OF A
TWELVE TO EIGHTEEN MONTH DOWN CYCLE. Gold, on the other hand, has shown
great relative strength despite the general markets correcting and negative
sentiment about the economy from Washington…’
Will
Quantitative Easing By The Federal Reserve Unleash Economic Hell? The Economic Collapse | Most
of the folks populating Congress are so incompetent that they should not even
be hired to mop the floors of a Dairy Queen.
China surpasses Japan as world's No. 2 economy
(Washington Post) [ As
if we didn’t see that coming! ]
HOW TO BEAR MARKET PROOF YOUR PORFOLIO , On Friday
August 13, 2010, ‘… The 22 trading days following the April 26
market highs erased eight months worth of gains. Bear markets move much quicker
than bull markets.
Rule #1: Better too Early than too Late
When preparing for a bear market (we'll discuss in a
moment why we have been preparing for a bear market), it is prudent to start
early. Anyone who sold their long positions as early as September last year
would be in a better position than the buy-and hold crowd that is still
clinging to their holdings.
Rule #2: Don't Trust Wall Street and the Media
By now, even the mainstream media is sensing that
something might not be quite right with the market's performance. However,
there is still hope that the second half of the year will get a lift from
positive earning results. Before you bet your money on that line of reasoning,
consider the picture the media painted days within the April 2010 market top.
April 19, 2010 'America is back - The remarkable tale of
an economic turnaround' – Newsweek
'Recovery tilting to V-shape as profits prompts growth revision' - Bloomberg
April 25, 2010: 'U.S. stocks cheapest since 1990 on
analyst estimates' – Bloomberg
'Technical Analysts see room to roll' - Wall Street Journal
April 27, 2010 'Greece contagion fears unfounded' -
Reuters
May 3, 2010: 'Manufacturing in U.S. grows at fastest pace
since 2004 as recovery gains traction' - Bloomberg
Over the past two and a half months, the S&P
(NYSEArca: SPY - News) and Dow (NYSEArca: DIA - News) have lost as much as 17%. A 20% loss is
considered the mark of a new bear market. In essence, we are only one bad day
away from the next bear. Of course, throughout the massive bear market rally
from the March 2009 lows, which the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
predicted via the March 2, 2009 Trend Change Alert, the newsletter maintained
that it was only a bear market trap which would fool a majority of investors.
On April 16 it stated that 'Most bulls have no clue why they are bullish except
for the fact that they feel the need to play the momentum game. Sounds like
2000 and 2007 all over again. The message conveyed by the composite bullishness
is unmistakably bearish.'
Rule #3: Don't Underestimate Cash
In a period of falling prices, cash or cash equivalents
like short term Treasuries (NYSEArca: SHY - News) maintain your purchasing power -
long-term Treasuries (NYSEArca: TLT - News) are interest rate sensitive and may move
faster than you think. When stocks fall and you are able to maintain your
purchasing power, you are able to buy stocks at a discount. In essence, cash
offers a positive return in periods of falling prices. Additionally, or
alternatively, investors may choose to buy short or leveraged short ETFs such
as the Short S&P 500 ProShares (NYSEArca: SH - News), UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares
(NYSEArca: TWM - News) UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares
(NYSEArca: SDS - News), Short Financial ProShares (NYSEArca: SEF -News), Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3x Shares
(NYSEArca: FAZ - News) and many more.
Rule #4: Don't Procrastinate
On May 14, the ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter predicted that the S&P (NYSEArca: IVV - News) will fall through the important 1,040
resistance level. Aside from a small cluster of resistances (one being round
number resistance), a break below 1,040 opened the door wide for significantly
lower prices. We mentioned above that we've been preparing for a reemerging
bear market even before the April highs. Why? Simply put, stocks are
overvalued. How can that be? One of the above headlines read that U.S. stocks
are cheapest since 1990, at least according to analyst projections. The key
word is projections. Analysts project operating earnings for the S&P to
clock in at $94.83 in 2011. This is higher than the 2007 peak of $91.47. That's
right, despite record high unemployment, a European (NYSEArca: VGK - News) debt crisis, a 17% U.S. market
correction, and all the other problems economists expect corporate profits will
exceed their 2007 all-time highs. Does that sound reasonable to you? Keep in
mind that projected earnings are just that - projected. They can and will
change. In fact, analysts have a reputation of following the trend. In April
2008, analysts predicted earnings of $113. After cutting its forecast to $53,
Goldman Sachs cut its earnings forecast to $40 in March 2009. As we know today,
stocks rallied, and actual 2009 earnings came in at $56.87. The list goes on,
but the simple message is that analysts tend to be overly optimistic before the
fall and overly pessimistic before a rally. Right now they are overly
optimistic. The conclusion is easy.
Rule #5: Know who to Trust
Even when basing the current P/E ratio on overly
optimistic estimates, it is still far away from the P/E ratios seen at historic
market bottoms. The same holds true for dividend yields. A look at various
valuation measures shows that the market is overvalued by much more than just
10 or 20%. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter provides a detailed analysis of four
valuation metrics with a near spotless track record of historic
accuracy…’
No Exit, Stage Left or Right
Peter shiff ‘… Those who fear a double dip
recession are justified in their concerns, but they are also missing the big
picture. The 2008 recession never ended. It was merely interrupted by
trillions of dollars of stimulus that purchased GDP “growth” with borrowed
money. But as the bills come due, GDP should now contract … After decades
of abuse, it’s time for the Fed to take make a dramatic exit, because the US
economy can’t take it anymore.’
Capital Controls: The Final
Phase in the Great Looting of America Eric
Blair | Capital controls are the
next big event in the government-banking-oligarchy’s great looting of America.
Fed Leads America “To The Brink
Of Collapse” When even the New York Times and CNN are admitting that the
United States faces not only a double-dip recession but potentially a new great
depression, any alarm bells that have not been rung should now be sounding loudly.
Bailouts Went To Foreign Banks:
Congressional Report Confirms What We Already Knew A Congressional Oversight
Panel issued today highlights the fact that large portions of the Treasury’s
$700 billion bailout fund have gone straight into the coffers of foreign banks,
a fact that we knew months ago, but is only now being officially recognised.
Marc Faber: Protect Your
Property with High Voltage Fences, Barbed Wire, Booby Traps, Military Weapons
and Dobermans Investment guru and publisher of The Gloom, Boom and Doom
report, Marc Faber, regularly discusses investment strategies for protecting
and building wealth during times of economic distress.
Warnings:
Social Security at risk
(Washington Post) [ Not this again! It bears repeating, that was always
a bad idea and there was a plethora of reasons set forth on my site as to why
the social security privatization plan being shilled by moron war criminal
dumbya bush on behalf of the wall street frauds was an exceedingly bad idea.
Indeed, as defacto insolvent as america / the social security system is, the
nation and system would have been wiped out by privatization debacle. Talk
about too big to, but still failed. It was a bad idea then, and though
accusations may fly as to fear mongering, the reality of the venality attendant
to such a preposterous course on behalf of the wall street frauds requires
vigilance, scrutiny, and discourse concerning even the remote possibility of
such a fool-hearty betrayal of the citizenry of the nation. As such, as off the
mark as wobama has almost invariably been, he’s on the mark on this. ]ANALYSIS | Obama says GOP wants to privatize program, but
liberals see a different threat.
Foreclosures
surge 9 percent in July (Washington
Post) Those glass-half-full frauds on wall street along with the administration
will be cheering this unequivocally bad news with a dubious retort as ‘used
home sales will rise’ … riiiight! Anything you say …
Stocks
dip for third straight day (Washington
Post) [Investor fears? How ‘bout reality. Even an essentially non-business site
as Drudge has the pulse of this pervasive realization that ‘those dogs of happy
days are here again don’t hunt no more’. Check the heads: DRUDGEREPORT: America Is
'Bankrupt Mickey Mouse Economy'...
WIRE:
USA 'Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It'...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT HITS RECORD HIGH
JOBLESS
CLAIMS JUMP TO HIGHEST SINCE FEB...
California
can't pay bills -- may use IOUs for August payments...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
Homes
lost to foreclosure up 6% from last year...
Grim
Voter Mood Turns Grimmer...
and Economists
Herald New Great Depression The world is
currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression,
according to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others
now forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.
Peter Schiff: “We’re in the
Early Stages of a Depression” The Motley Fool | Four years and the worst
recession since the Great Depression later, Schiff stands alone again with a
bleaker diagnosis for the economy: an inflationary depression. My take: This is a global
depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up
move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has
been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with
great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell
into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam /
fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will
not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are
criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed
Pearlstein: The
FCC and the bandwidth wars (Washington
Post) [The internet has been among the few areas of growth and american
prominence, at least at this point in time. Clearly, as with the throng that
heralded in NAFTA, the self-interested voices of ie., google, verizon, etc.,
are similarly anathema to the greater good (as was NAFTA). Berners-Lee spoke
against such parochialism in no uncertain terms, much as did Ross Perot on
NAFTA and history has proven Perot correct as is so of the mind numbing
approaches of google, verizon, etc.] Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse (infowars.com) [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the
internet along with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously
opposed same and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and
verizon as mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc.,
operatives at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government
hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went public today with their “policy
framework” — better known as the pact to end the Internet as we know it.
AP Business
Highlights ‘Jobs picture dims as
unemployment claims rise WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy is looking bleaker
as new applications for jobless benefits rose last week to the highest level in
almost six months. It's a sign that hiring remains weak and employers may be
going back to cutting their staffs. Analysts say the increase suggests
companies won't be adding enough workers in August to lower the 9.5 percent
unemployment rate. First-time claims for jobless benefits edged up by 2,000 to
a seasonally adjusted 484,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. That's the
highest total since February. Analysts had expected claims to fall…’
Bearish Sentiment Falls to 14-Week Low [Talk about contrarian indicators!] AAII – ‘Bullish sentiment rose
9.4 percentage points to 39.8% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Despite the
size of the increase, the proportion of individual investors expecting stock
prices to rise over the next six months is only at a two-week high. The
historical average is 39%. Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices
will stay essentially flat over the next six months, fell 1.3 percentage points
to 30.1%. The historical average is 31%. Bearish sentiment, expectations that
stock prices will fall, dropped 8.1 percentage points to 30.1%. This is a
14-week low. The historical average is 30%. The survey period, Thursday through
Wednesday, needs to be taken into consideration when looking at these results.
Stock prices were essentially flat through most of this week's survey period
(with the obvious exception of yesterday), giving some investors hope that a
short-term bottom had been established. Though there were big changes in
bullish and bearish sentiment, both optimism and pessimism are close to their
historical averages. As a result, I would argue that individual investors'
confidence in the market remains fragile…’
U.S.
trade deficit startles markets (Washington Post) [ Unexpectedly? I don’t
think so! And, I have my site, other references / links and posts to prove it;
and, what’s more, I’m not alone. After all, what are NAFTAs for anyway.
However, I also must candidly admit I don’t frequent the mainstream blather /
propaganda that includes the ‘money-honeys’ (when the messenger’s more
important than the message, problems and distortions are bound to follow) and
their ilk, etc.. NBR’s
about it and even they have their pressures (I don’t consider the Washington
Post mainstream in the pejorative sense of the word, with a rich journalistic
history to back that up, all things considered) ]. Unexpectedly bad news from
three continents reinforces fears that global recovery is faltering.
Obama signs $26 billion jobs
bill (WP) [I feel compelled to
comment here that even using capital hill math one would be hard-pressed to
justify $26 billion taxpayer / treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save
300,000 state / local government jobs! After all, the nation is defacto
bankrupt! I think the former Soviet Union would have done the same.]
Fed action signals new activism (Washington
Post) [ Riiiiight! The activist fed! That’s all we need. As if we needed more
of what brought us to this point! Certainly the fed’s role in the continuing
and current financial crisis / debacle cannot be ignored or disputed. Nothing
like a hegelian methodology to create
the very problems for which they are called upon to offer solutions, increasing
their sense of importance, and concentrating power thereby. (Think about it. It
is really rather quite absurd that each meeting time the financial markets hold
their bated breath for these incompetent boobs). Then there’s the cover-up with
an opportunity for enrichment of some, usually the tight-lipped yes-men then ever
after and forever bonded in what becomes tantamount to an almost fraternal link
by ‘virtue’ of the crime thereby. No, I’m not saying their initial missteps
were necessarily badly intended, but the manipulations thereafter to obfuscate
their incompetence (senile greenspun, no-recession-helicopter-ben, etc.) comes
at a great price and is nothing less than tantamount to or just outright crime.
I’d abolish the fed without hesitation or compunction. After all, at this point
of decline and defacto bankruptcy of the nation you certainly can’t point to
success nor argue their indispensability. Then there’s also the missing
trillions, over-printing of fiat currency, and all that sub rosa activity with
the worthless fraudulent toxic paper which I believe is being supplanted with
ultimately hard currency to the great benefit of the frauds and great detriment
to the nation.]
ACCORDING TO TECHNICAL INDICATORS, MELTDOWN IS
POSSIBLE A SOLID TRACK
RECORD An analysis of the SMA crossover
buy/sell signals triggered for the S&P over the past 10 days shows that six
of the eight signals (75%) were correct. ..LAGGING BUT
ACCURATE Many dismiss
the 200-day or other SMAs as lagging indicators. Although an indicator may be
lagging it doesn't mean it's incorrect or should be dismissed… Even though a
lagging indicator, the rain does confirm that a storm is coming. A PRO-ACTIVE
APPROACH You'd expect Wall Street and the financial
media to be the financial weather man and warn you of upcoming storms.
Unfortunately, that is not so. Leading up to the April 2010 recovery highs,
Wall Street and the media proclaimed the skies are clear, 'sunny throughout the
year' was their weather forecast. Only after investors got drenched, did Wall
Street recommend pulling out the umbrella. Sure enough, as soon as the
umbrellas came out, stocks switched into rally mode and the sky cleared up.
Unlike Wall Street, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned of the brewing
storm while it was still sunny. On April 16, the newsletter warned that
'historically, there has rarely been a more pronounced sell signal ... When
consumers spend, they do so with credit cards. Visa and Master Card both got
hit with a death cross. It's just a matter of time until the discretionary
sector follows. WAIT, THERE IS MORE …High copper
prices are reflective of high demand and a humming economy. Lower copper prices
signal trouble ahead. On June 22, an ominous death cross visited copper's
chart. PUTTING THE ODDS IN YOUR FAVOR Investing is
a game of probabilities. While you always want to have the odds in your favor,
you never want to bet against the odds. Right now, the odds are piling up on
the bearish side of the ledger. Even though Wall Street is saying that the sky
has cleared up, 'meteorologists' with a better track record are warning of the
storm ahead. In fact, there is one rare chart formation that strongly suggests
the onset of a 2008-like decline, a development that's certainly supported by
the number of death crosses spanning a variety of markets. The August issue of
the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter includes a detailed short, mid and
long-term forecast, along with the one chart that tells the market's story and
true bearish potential.
Californians’ income falls for
first time since WWII Sacramento Bee | The personal incomes of
Golden State workers fell by that amount in 2009 compared with the previous
year.
Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the internet along
with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously opposed same
and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and verizon as
mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc., operatives
at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went
public today with their “policy framework” — better known as the pact to end
the Internet as we know it.
DRUDGEREPORT:
America Is
'Bankrupt Mickey Mouse Economy'...
WIRE:
USA 'Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It'...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT HITS
RECORD HIGH
JOBLESS
CLAIMS JUMP TO HIGHEST SINCE FEB...
California
can't pay bills -- may use IOUs for August payments...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
Homes
lost to foreclosure up 6% from last year...
Grim
Voter Mood Turns Grimmer...
Claims
of Afghan civilian deaths spark protest...
Military
sees heavier fighting in fall...
PAPER:
10 reasons why Obama presidency is in meltdown...
GALLUP:
Even the Poor Are Abandoning Obama; Approval Under 50%...
Obama
abolishes White House position dedicated to transparency...
Michelle
Obama popularity falls...
UPDATE:
Suspected serial killer arrested in Atlanta...
Attempting
to flee to israel … to be with kindred spirits ...
MOB
RUSH FOR FED AID DRAWS RIOT POLICE
DOW drops
265...
Feds
rethink policies that encourage home ownership...
Obama: $3
Billion More in Aid for Unemployed...
US
posts widest trade gap in 20 months...
Q2 GDP Growth Could Be Revised To Just 1% After Trade Data...
PUMP:
FED TO BUY MORE DEBT...
DOWNGRADES
OUTLOOK...
US-backed
fighters in Iraq defect to al-Qaida... [Winning hearts and minds …
for Al Qaida … just one too many civilian deaths for no good reason at all ]
Republicans
Suggest Names for 'Second Stimulus' Bill...
'Where
do the bailouts end?' [I feel compelled to comment here that
even capital hill math would be hard-pressed to justify $26 billion taxpayer /
treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save 300,000 state / local
government jobs! After all, the nation is defacto bankrupt! ]
Gerald Celente On the Alex
Jones Show: Double Dip Depression Will Lead Us Into War The white shoe boys are
taking us into the worst depression in history.
Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the internet along
with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously opposed same
and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and verizon as
mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc., operatives
at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went
public today with their “policy framework” — better known as the pact to end
the Internet as we know it.
Economists
Herald New Great Depression The world is
currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression,
according to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others
now forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.
Riiiiight! That ‘no-longer looking’ dynamic that saves the day and the ue rate
at 9.5%. At this rate of progress, and according to their thinking and
manipulations, full employment at an unprecedented 0% unemployment is just
around the corner as everyone stops looking for the jobs no longer here, many
of which were sent overseas and which are not coming back owing to substantial
economic structural / financial shifts.
Jobs Report: Companies Slow to Hire ABC
News - Only about 8 percent of the 8.4 million jobs lost at the
peak of the recession have been recovered, leaving millions of Americans still
looking for work, according to an analysis by ABC News' Business Unit. Video: News Update: US
Unemployment Rate Holds at 9.5%, 71,000 Jobs Added in June SmarTrend News 71K more jobs not enough to dent unemployment rate The Associated Press
When perusing the headlines and the
following, I immediately thought ‘between Iraq and a hard place (Afghanistan
and america’s defacto bankruptcy)’:
Between a Rock and a Hard Place Jerry Slusiewicz ‘Everyone knows that being between a rock
and a hard place is not a good place to be. That is where the market is right
now. We continue to have terrible news in the housing sector. There is no
general economic recovery as of yet. Jobless claims continue to mount, while
net new jobs are not being created in a significant enough number to even
sustain the population growth (approximately 150,000 net new jobs per month
needed). By far the majority of economic reports for May, June, July, and now
August, have been worse than forecast. That includes home starts, home sales,
home-builder confidence, retail sales, auto sales, consumer confidence, durable
goods orders, manufacturing, jobs, etc. Yet the market rallies or barely goes
down on these bad reports. What gives? It seems that bad news is good news
right now…
Stepping Aside Because I Can Always
Buy Back In Leigh Drogen ‘I sold
out of everything this morning, for a few reasons…First, breakouts don’t always
work and momentum stocks have a habit of ending their trends abruptly.
Second, …I can buy back in this afternoon if I change my mind (not likely). I
see more risk to the downside here than I do to the upside. …Third, the jobs
number tomorrow scares me. No, it doesn’t matter what the number is, we all
know it’s going to be bad, what matters is how the market reacts, and I have
the feel it’s not going to be good. Fourth, many of my oscillators are
overbought here.Fifth, and finally, I don’t like the fact that this rally has
primarily taken place on the back of the most beaten down sectors. …It all just
doesn’t pass the smell test for me. I’ve been successful at this not because
I’m always right, but because I know when I’m wrong and I’m willing to change
course or step aside. Right now, I’ll step aside.’
Were Unemployment Claims Really So 'Unexpected'?
WE’RE UNDERESTIMATING THE BEARISH POTENTIAL , August 3, 2010
’… Will Anything Stop the Market? Something Did
… At the same time, the April numbers were lowered the second time by
an additional 24,000 units, while May sales were revised lower by 33,000 units.
To summarize, April and May sales were reduced by 57,000 units. Therefore, June
sales were 24% above May sales. By the way, May sales were the lowest on record…
Temporary
Firehouse Closures Begin In Philadelphia CBS 3 | The city
of Philadelphia has started temporarily closing fire stations in order to
balance its budget.
Warning
Signs Suggest Market Headed for Another Collapse … One can find no shortage of fundamental or
mechanical theories explaining what might form the basis of a future financial
collapse published at Zero Hedge, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Nouriel Roubini or
Karl Denninger. In fact, I buy into a lot of the evidence presented by these
sources, and believe that one gains a better grasp of financial reality
spending 10 minutes with Zero Hedge than spending 2 weeks listening to the
mainstream financial media. It is laughable to compare the vacant drivel coming
out of Dennis Kneale to even one single article published by Tyler Durden or
Ryan Iskander…
1. HEAD &
SHOULDERS ON THE S&P 500, DOW JONES, AND NASDAQ …
2. BULLISH FLAG ON
THE VIX? We can’t have a massive spike in volatility without a coinciding
collapse in the equity markets …
3.
THE DEATH-CROSS ON THE S&P SUGGESTS THE 2009 TO 2010 RALLY MIGHT BE OVER
…
4. THE VOLUMELESS
RALLY & MUTUAL FUND OUTFLOWS
…
5. 1,000 POINT FLASH
CRASHES
…
6. BOND MARKET
DISTRUSTFUL OF THE RALLY
…
7. MARKET LEADERSHIP
IS WEAKENING
[chart] … ‘
Stocks' Late Push: Some
Optimism, Some Pessimism [Late
push … as in a constipated bowel movement … Come on! Another one of those push
the computer programmed trade button and off we go, reality / valuation /
economics be damned. In real security analysis (very simplified / summarized),
as opposed to the continued frauds on wall street, one must begin with the
largest and most significant aggregate (a simple word picture / analogy: ‘rising
tide lifts all boats’). If you get this right, the probabilities in your favor
are substantially enhanced. From there, you want leading industries, and
leading companies within said leading industries (again, larger aggregates then
picks, to enhance probabilities, not guarantees, in your favor). Your time
frame, 1-3-5 yrs tops for projections, (including income statement/EPS, balance
sheet, and applying an appropriate P/E – a detailed, multi-faceted approach
beyond what could be described in this summary); and, that’s all they are,
projections. Beyond that time frame, your guess. On fraudulent wall street,
every day, though already discounted in large part (6-8 mos, approx.), the
market spins, churns, and with lightning fast computerized high-frequency trade
programs commissions in huge volumes like no other time in financial history
when real valuation meant something, with no net economic value added, but very
lucrative to the frauds on wall street, which ultimately is a net detriment to
the economy / the nation /and other industries as we’ve seen and as described
elsewhere on this site and in these posts http://albertpeia.com . Preposterously, they
even sometimes refer to seasonal factors as if hearing them for the first time
and ‘explaining’ an up move (almost invariably already discounted). Today, they
shrugged off the deepening economic reality despite the election year frothing
/ manipulations. This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market
in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in
a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national
decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the
wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and
disgorgement imposed. ].
Slowing economic rebound raises
unemployment fears (AP) [Wow! Talk about understatements!]
Marc Faber Questions if Dow
Could Hit 1,000 In the August edition of the ‘The Gloom, Boom
& Doom Report’ Marc Faber questions whether the Dow could hit 1,000 as predicted by Robert Prechter,
based on his interpretation of Elliot Waves, Fibonacci numbers and
socioeconomic trends. Prechter, who has written 13
books on finance (external link), believes that the
stock market is historically overvalued in terms of dividends and earnings,
because of a “great rise in positive social mood.” But the mood changed in 2000
and the “trend toward negative social mood will lead to an economic
contraction,” according to Prechter. “Small bear markets lead to recessions,
big bear markets lead to depressions. The current bear market will be the
biggest in nearly 300 years, so the depression will be correspondingly deep,”
Prechter said.
Wall
St falls after weak outlooks drag (Reuters) U.S. stocks sagged in volatile
trading on Thursday after weak outlooks from technology companies and downbeat
comments from a Federal Reserve official gave investors little reason to buy.
Fed says some districts report slowing economy (Reuters)
Flaws of the European Stress Test … 'Bank stress test' became the magic phrase. Nothing calms fear
like a stress test that's labeled as rigorous. The stress test raises a few
very obvious questions: 1) Will it work? 2) Why was it needed in addition to a
$1 trillion aid package? 3) Is the stress test just a gimmick to appease
investors? The stress test is conducted by the London-based Committee of
European Banking Supervisors (CEBS). Ironically, the test has ignored the majority
of banks' holdings of sovereign debt. Sovereign debt concerns by the so-called
PIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain) triggered the latest wave
of financial problems. Ignoring sovereign debt in the Euro stress test would be
like ignoring toxic real estate assets in the U.S. 10% Good - 90% Bad
According to a Morgan Stanley survey, European banks hold about 90% of their
Greek government bonds in their banking books and 10% in their trading books.
The bonds in the banking book are generally held until maturity, the bonds in
the trading book are traded more frequently. According to a document obtained
by Bloomberg, the stress test assumes a loss of 23.1% on Greek debt, 14% on
Portuguese bonds, 12.3% on Spanish debt, 4.7% on German debt, 10% on U.K. debt,
and 5.9% on French debt. However, the stress test only looks at the bonds held
in banks' trading books, which account for a mere 10% of Greek bond holdings.
Can that be called a stress test? Nouriel Roubini says that 'the assumptions
made about economic growth, about sovereign risk are not realistic enough.' The
fact that only seven banks failed the test with a combined shortfall of $4.5
billion confirms the lax nature of the test. … The U.S. Bank Stress Test - A Nice Façade A closer look
under the hood of the U.S. bank stress test, however, shows that there's not
much substance behind the facade either. It was determined that the 19 tested
U.S. banks need to increase their balance sheets by $75 billion to meet the
conditions of what's termed the 'worst case scenario.' To a large extent, the
$75 billion of additional capital was financially engineered. Banks didn't have
to actually raise $75 billion. They were able to change the label of some of
their assets on their balance sheets. The government supported this practice
via mandatory convertible preferred shares (detailed analysis in May 2009 issue
of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter) …’
Moody's:
Regional banks on review for downgrade (AP)
Consumer
confidence dims (Reuters)
Job worries drove July U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest since
February, with one in six people expecting lower income in the next six months,
underscoring the precarious state of econo...
Global
steelmakers paint gloomy picture (Reuters)
US
bank failures in 2010 surpass 100
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. bank failures this year have surpassed a bleak
milestone of 100 as regulators shut down banks in Georgia, Florida, South
Carolina, Kansas, Nevada and Minnesota. The six bank seizures announced Friday
bring to 102 the failures so far in 2010. The pace of bank closures this year
is well ahead of that of last year, which saw a total 140 bank shuttered amid
the recession and mounting loan defaults …
On the Disconnect Between the Market and the Economy Michael Shulman:
(No recession helicopter ben) Bernanke Admits Major Policy Failures; Stocks Soar Darryl Montgomery What's wrong with this picture?
In his bi-annual testimony before Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke
admitted that after more than a year and a half of zero interest rates and $3
trillion in federal deficit spending since 2008, the best case
scenario for the U.S. economy is slow growth and high unemployment. The S&P
500 is up 2.5% so far this morning on this 'good' news. Bernanke's congressional testimony included the
following statements (emphasis added by me):
"Most [FOMC] participants viewed uncertainty
about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the
majority saw [at the June Fed meeting] the risks to growth as weighted to
the downside."
"Financial conditions--though much improved
since the depth of the financial crisis--have become less supportive of
economic growth in recent months."
"Many banks continue to have a large volume
of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight.
With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank
loans outstanding have continued to contract."
"After two years of job losses, private payrolls
expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this
year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially.
In all likelihood, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the
nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009."…
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Did Google Block “Barry
Soetoro” Search Term? Screenshots obtained by a Prison Planet reader suggest
that Google may have moved to de-list “Barry Soetoro” as a popular search term
shortly after it rose to the top of the Google Trends charts after yesterday’s
effort by radio talk show host Alex Jones to focus attention on Barack Obama’s
real name.
Feb
26, 2009 ... Bolton, the NEOCON gift that keeps on giving the
Repuglycans zero ... The problem with McCain was this. As a veteran
and a POW he get's high marks. ..... to get some treatment at the closest mental
health facility. ...
thinkprogress.org/2009/02/26/bolton-nukes-chicago/ -
Cached
- Similar
Aug
4, 2009 ... Bolton, like all neocons, doesn't understand that
there is ..... Of course, we all know it was BUSH who caused the problem
in the first place, right? .... they view the world in the light of their own mental
disorder, ...
thinkprogress.org/2009/08/.../bolton-north-korea-journalists/ - Cached
- Similar
Show
more results from thinkprogress.org
Dec
21, 2009 ... Re: Breaking: Neocon John Bolton Names Dick
Cheney "Conservati ... republicanism/conservatism is a mental
illness that is killing America and ... Problem is one side will
shamelessly try and stack the deck in their favor ...
crooksandliars.com › Blogs
› Logan
Murphy's blog - Cached
- Similar
Apr
17, 2007 ... On March 25, John Bolton was interviewed by BBC
Newsnight's Jeremy Paxman (video here). ... I think the real problem
was in not relying more on Iraqis. .... BTW, a mental giant, you are
not. The best thing to happen to ...
www.democrats.com › Blogs
› Bob
Fertik's blog - Cached
Bolton and his neo-con
crazies aren't setting the agenda anymore, ... And I do not mean the mental
condition of Mr Bolton and his fellow neocons. ...
www.lobelog.com/bolton-suggests-nuclear-attack-on-iran/ - Cached
- Similar
May
26, 2009 ... It's a special kind of mental illness. ... Bolton
has been derided as "the neocon's neocon" who "laps up
the hosannas of fellow ...
atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/.../dont-hold-your-breath-ambassador-bolton.html - Cached
Dec
4, 2006 ... Clyburn: E-Vote 'Hacked'; Rawl: 'Systemic Software Problems'
.... Add 'The Fall of the NeoCons: Bye Bye Bolton' to
Del.icio · Add 'The ... The Army's Lack of Mental Health Treatment for
Returning Troops" NEXT STORY » ...
www.bradblog.com/?p=3873 - Cached
30
posts - 4 authors - Last post: 21 hours ago
"Religion
is science for the mental ill" - Myself ... John Bolton
is a Bush neo con,,, obviously broke and needing the money. ...
www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1163684/pg2
New
article on darkpolitricks: Neocon Bolton Renews Call for Israel to
Bomb Iran http: darkpoltweeter (Dark Politricks RT): New article on
darkpolitricks: ...
www.wwnewsflash.com/bolton
· [PDF]
File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat - Quick
View
a sweeping diagnosis, it's clear that mental health has been a problem
within ...... Neocon icon John Bolton, Bush's abrasive former
Ambassador to the UN, ...
www.sf911truth.org/neocons.pdf
On
Facebook: Israeli soldier posed with bound Arab (AP)
China
focuses on military might (Washington Post) [And the big difference here (between them
and defacto bankrupt america) is that ‘THEY CAN AFFORD IT’ and are not fighting
nation-bankrupting, anti-american-sentiment-creating wars all over the
place.] Nation is quickly modernizing
forces, extending influence deep into Pacific and Indian oceans.
Afghans
still see U.S. as bad guy (Washington Post ) [Riiiiight! Sounds like a plan …
winning hearts and minds throughout the world … great for exports also as such
‘won hearts and minds’ just love to buy american.] American, NATO forces retain
blame for civilian deaths despite spike from insurgent violence.
Preparing
for World War III, Targeting Iran Humanity is at a dangerous crossroads.
War preparations to attack Iran are in “an advanced state of readiness”. Hi
tech weapons systems including nuclear warheads are fully deployed.
Pentagon tells WikiLeaks: "Do right thing" (Reuters) [Great
advice … if only the endless war, military complex based pentagon could take
it!] The Pentagon demanded on Thursday that whistle-blower web site WikiLeaks
immediately hand over about 15,000 secret Afghan war records it had not yet
published and erase material it had alrea…
Oliver
Stone has apologized for his anti-Semitic rant, but is the damage already done.
What damage? To perceived reality as opposed to reality? When you look at
america’s pro-israel, self-destructive, contra-indicated policies, including
the hands off policy vis-à-vis fraudulent wall street, you see the truth to
what he says which is what so many astute individuals are already thinking /
realizing. How can people continue to ignore the truth, to their own detriment
Think about it. Do you really think he would risk the typical onslaught if the
same weren’t true? ‘Director Oliver
Stone has been forced to make a grovelling apology over an anti-Semitic
outburst. The double Academy Award winner claimed that the Russians suffered
more during the Second World War and that there was a Jewish 'domination of the
media'. Stone also said that Jews had '****ed up' U.S. foreign policy for years
and suggested the British supported Hitler ...’ The relentless attacks on Mel
Gibson are of the same caliber and purpose; suppression of truth!
WASHPOST
Ombudsman: Why Silence on Black Panther Story? (Washington Post) ‘Thursday's Post reported about a growing controversy
over the Justice
Department's decision to scale down a voter-intimidation case against members
of the New Black Panther Party. The story succinctly summarized the issues
but left many readers with a question: What took you so long? For months,
readers have contacted the ombudsman wondering why The Post hasn't been
covering the case. The calls increased recently after competitors such as the New
York Times and the Associated Press wrote stories. Fox News and right-wing
bloggers have been pumping the story. Liberal bloggers have countered, accusing
them of trying to manufacture a scandal. But The Post has been virtually
silent. The story has its origins on Election Day in 2008, when two members of
the New Black Panther Party stood in front of a Philadelphia polling place. YouTube
video of the men, now viewed nearly 1.5 million times, shows both wearing
paramilitary clothing. One carried a nightstick…’
Latino
KKK: You are too white to be American! ALIPAC | Tan Klan woman can scream racist
comments because the Obama administration and most of the major news networks
in America have her back.
Drudgereport:
NEW
LOW FOR O: USATODAYGALLUP HAS OBAMA APPROVE AT 41%...
America Is
'Bankrupt Mickey Mouse Economy'...
WIRE:
USA 'Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It'...
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT HITS
RECORD HIGH
JOBLESS
CLAIMS JUMP TO HIGHEST SINCE FEB...
California
can't pay bills -- may use IOUs for August payments...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
Homes
lost to foreclosure up 6% from last year...
Grim
Voter Mood Turns Grimmer...
Claims
of Afghan civilian deaths spark protest...
Military
sees heavier fighting in fall...
UPDATE:
Suspected serial killer arrested in Atlanta...
Attempting
to flee to israel … to be with kindred spirits ...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
MOB
RUSH FOR FED AID DRAWS RIOT POLICE
DOW drops
265...
Feds
rethink policies that encourage home ownership...
Obama: $3
Billion More in Aid for Unemployed...
US
posts widest trade gap in 20 months...
Q2 GDP Growth Could Be Revised To Just 1% After Trade Data...
PUMP:
FED TO BUY MORE DEBT...
DOWNGRADES
OUTLOOK...
US-backed
fighters in Iraq defect to al-Qaida... [Winning hearts and minds …
for Al Qaida … just one too many civilian deaths for no good reason at all ]
Republicans
Suggest Names for 'Second Stimulus' Bill...
'Where
do the bailouts end?' [I feel compelled to comment here that
even capital hill math would be hard-pressed to justify $26 billion taxpayer /
treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save 300,000 state / local
government jobs! After all, the nation is defacto bankrupt! ]
CASTRO
WARNS OF IMPENDING NUCLEAR HOLOCAUST
WELCOME
TO THE RECOVERY...
JULY
UNEMPLOYMENT -131,000 JOBS...
Revised: May/June -97,000 jobs than first reported...
Odd
mix of bad news...
CASTRO
WARNS OF IMPENDING NUCLEAR HOLOCAUST
Michelle
Obama 'modern-day Marie Antoinette'...
NYT:
'Leaves the taxpayers with a hefty bill'...
While
Obama preaches sacrifice, his family frolics in Spain...
Gazpacho,
turbot, veal and ratatouille with the king...
Lavish
Obama vacation in time of economic turmoil raises eyebrows...
BAKER:
'Leaves taxpayers with hefty bill'...
Hollywood
star-studded gala at first lady's luxury hotel...
MICHELLE
O'S $375,000 VACATION?!
Strolls Marbella after State Dept. 'racist' Spaniards gaffe...
White
House calling: Please will you make a coat for Michelle...
Boy
Scouts boo Obama...
GALLUP:
Blacks and Whites Continue to Differ Sharply on Obama...
JUDGE
KNOCKS DOWN MARRIAGE PROP IN CA
BLOW
TO O: MO SAYS NO
Voters
overwhelmingly rejected federal mandate to purchase health insurance...
Americans
swap passports; Desire to avoid tax leads some to renounce citizenship...
Ahmadinejad
survives blast near motorcade...
'Stupid
Zionists have hired mercenaries to assassinate me'...
FALTERING RECOVERY TRIPS DOLLAR...
GM,
FORD and CHRYSLER Sales All Lag Estimates...
Stimulus
Slammed: Republican Senators Release Report Alleging Waste...
The
100 worst stimulus projects...
SHOCK
VIDEO: DEM CONGRESSMAN BRAGS: 'FEDERAL GOVERNMENT CAN DO MOST ANYTHING IN THIS
COUNTRY'...
Deadliest Month Of Afghan War
Paper:
Will Washington's Failures Lead To Second American Revolution
Maxine
Waters faces trial over bank bailout funds...
HOT WATERS
Dems
Say Sorry, Charlie...
Democrats
Say Rangel Should Resign...
Obama:
Time For Rangel To End Career 'With Dignity'...
60,000 babies born to 'noncitizens' get U.S. birthright - in Texas
alone...
Dutch
become 1st NATO member to quit Afghanistan...
China
surpasses Japan as world's No. 2 economy
(Washington Post) As if
no one saw that coming.
Lots
of stimulus yet to be spent (Washington Post) [Wow! Sounds like Alec’s
looking for ‘work’ on wall street. I think his glass is not only
‘wall-street-half-full’, but has an extra concentration of fluoride, the
effects of which seem ‘reachingly obvious’. Time to come back to economic
reality, Alec. ] As Americans puzzle
over why the economic stimulus package enacted more than a year ago has failed
to restore vigorous job growth, one explanation has emerged from new reports: A
lot of the money is not yet out the door.
Warnings:
Social Security at risk
(Washington Post) [ Not this again! It bears repeating, that was always
a bad idea and there was a plethora of reasons set forth on my site as to why
the social security privatization plan being shilled by moron war criminal
dumbya bush on behalf of the wall street frauds was an exceedingly bad idea.
Indeed, as defacto insolvent as america / the social security system is, the
nation and system would have been wiped out by privatization debacle. Talk
about too big to, but still failed. It was a bad idea then, and though
accusations may fly as to fear mongering, the reality of the venality attendant
to such a preposterous course on behalf of the wall street frauds requires
vigilance, scrutiny, and discourse concerning even the remote possibility of
such a fool-hearty betrayal of the citizenry of the nation. As such, as off the
mark as wobama has almost invariably been, he’s on the mark on this. ]ANALYSIS | Obama says GOP wants to privatize program, but
liberals see a different threat.
Foreclosures
surge 9 percent in July (Washington
Post) Those glass-half-full frauds on wall street along with the administration
will be cheering this unequivocally bad news with a dubious retort as ‘used
home sales will rise’ … riiiight! Anything you say …
Stocks
dip for third straight day (Washington
Post) [Investor fears? How ‘bout reality. Even an essentially non-business site
as Drudge has the pulse of this pervasive realization that ‘those dogs of happy
days are here again don’t hunt no more’. Check the heads: DRUDGEREPORT: America Is 'Bankrupt Mickey Mouse Economy'...
WIRE: USA 'Bankrupt and We
Don't Even Know It'...
DEFICIT ADDS
$165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT HITS RECORD HIGH
JOBLESS CLAIMS JUMP TO
HIGHEST SINCE FEB...
California can't pay bills --
may use IOUs for August payments...
DEFICIT ADDS
$165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
Homes lost to foreclosure up
6% from last year...
Grim Voter Mood Turns
Grimmer... and Economists
Herald New Great Depression The world is
currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression,
according to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others
now forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.
Peter Schiff: “We’re in the
Early Stages of a Depression” The Motley Fool | Four years and the worst
recession since the Great Depression later, Schiff stands alone again with a
bleaker diagnosis for the economy: an inflationary depression. My take: This is a global
depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up
move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has
been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with
great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell
into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam /
fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will
not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are
criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed
Pearlstein: The
FCC and the bandwidth wars (Washington
Post) [The internet has been among the few areas of growth and american
prominence, at least at this point in time. Clearly, as with the throng that
heralded in NAFTA, the self-interested voices of ie., google, verizon, etc.,
are similarly anathema to the greater good (as was NAFTA). Berners-Lee spoke
against such parochialism in no uncertain terms, much as did Ross Perot on
NAFTA and history has proven Perot correct as is so of the mind numbing
approaches of google, verizon, etc.] Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse (infowars.com) [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the
internet along with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously
opposed same and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and
verizon as mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc.,
operatives at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government
hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went public today with their “policy
framework” — better known as the pact to end the Internet as we know it.
AP Business
Highlights ‘Jobs picture dims as
unemployment claims rise WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy is looking bleaker
as new applications for jobless benefits rose last week to the highest level in
almost six months. It's a sign that hiring remains weak and employers may be
going back to cutting their staffs. Analysts say the increase suggests
companies won't be adding enough workers in August to lower the 9.5 percent
unemployment rate. First-time claims for jobless benefits edged up by 2,000 to
a seasonally adjusted 484,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. That's the
highest total since February. Analysts had expected claims to fall…’
Bearish Sentiment Falls to 14-Week Low [Talk about contrarian indicators!] AAII – ‘Bullish sentiment rose
9.4 percentage points to 39.8% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Despite the
size of the increase, the proportion of individual investors expecting stock
prices to rise over the next six months is only at a two-week high. The
historical average is 39%. Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices
will stay essentially flat over the next six months, fell 1.3 percentage points
to 30.1%. The historical average is 31%. Bearish sentiment, expectations that
stock prices will fall, dropped 8.1 percentage points to 30.1%. This is a
14-week low. The historical average is 30%. The survey period, Thursday through
Wednesday, needs to be taken into consideration when looking at these results.
Stock prices were essentially flat through most of this week's survey period
(with the obvious exception of yesterday), giving some investors hope that a
short-term bottom had been established. Though there were big changes in
bullish and bearish sentiment, both optimism and pessimism are close to their
historical averages. As a result, I would argue that individual investors'
confidence in the market remains fragile…’
U.S.
trade deficit startles markets (Washington Post) [ Unexpectedly? I don’t think
so! And, I have my site, other references / links and posts to prove it; and,
what’s more, I’m not alone. After all, what are NAFTAs for anyway. However, I
also must candidly admit I don’t frequent the mainstream blather / propaganda
that includes the ‘money-honeys’ (when the messenger’s more important than the
message, problems and distortions are bound to follow) and their ilk, etc.. NBR’s about it and even they have their pressures (I
don’t consider the Washington Post mainstream in the pejorative sense of the
word, with a rich journalistic history to back that up, all things considered)
]. Unexpectedly bad news from three continents reinforces fears that global
recovery is faltering.
Obama signs $26 billion jobs
bill (WP) [I feel compelled to
comment here that even using capital hill math one would be hard-pressed to
justify $26 billion taxpayer / treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save
300,000 state / local government jobs! After all, the nation is defacto
bankrupt! I think the former Soviet Union would have done the same.]
Fed action signals new activism (Washington
Post) [ Riiiiight! The activist fed! That’s all we need. As if we needed more
of what brought us to this point! Certainly the fed’s role in the continuing
and current financial crisis / debacle cannot be ignored or disputed. Nothing
like a hegelian methodology to create
the very problems for which they are called upon to offer solutions, increasing
their sense of importance, and concentrating power thereby. (Think about it. It
is really rather quite absurd that each meeting time the financial markets hold
their bated breath for these incompetent boobs). Then there’s the cover-up with
an opportunity for enrichment of some, usually the tight-lipped yes-men then
ever after and forever bonded in what becomes tantamount to an almost fraternal
link by ‘virtue’ of the crime thereby. No, I’m not saying their initial
missteps were necessarily badly intended, but the manipulations thereafter to
obfuscate their incompetence (senile greenspun, no-recession-helicopter-ben,
etc.) comes at a great price and is nothing less than tantamount to or just
outright crime. I’d abolish the fed without hesitation or compunction. After
all, at this point of decline and defacto bankruptcy of the nation you
certainly can’t point to success nor argue their indispensability. Then there’s
also the missing trillions, over-printing of fiat currency, and all that sub
rosa activity with the worthless fraudulent toxic paper which I believe is
being supplanted with ultimately hard currency to the great benefit of the
frauds and great detriment to the nation.]
ACCORDING TO TECHNICAL INDICATORS, MELTDOWN IS
POSSIBLE A
SOLID TRACK RECORD An analysis
of the SMA crossover buy/sell signals triggered for the S&P over the past
10 days shows that six of the eight signals (75%) were correct. ..LAGGING
BUT ACCURATE Many dismiss
the 200-day or other SMAs as lagging indicators. Although an indicator may be
lagging it doesn't mean it's incorrect or should be dismissed… Even though a
lagging indicator, the rain does confirm that a storm is coming. A
PRO-ACTIVE APPROACH You'd expect Wall Street and the
financial media to be the financial weather man and warn you of upcoming
storms. Unfortunately, that is not so. Leading up to the April 2010 recovery
highs, Wall Street and the media proclaimed the skies are clear, 'sunny
throughout the year' was their weather forecast. Only after investors got
drenched, did Wall Street recommend pulling out the umbrella. Sure enough, as
soon as the umbrellas came out, stocks switched into rally mode and the sky
cleared up. Unlike Wall Street, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned of
the brewing storm while it was still sunny. On April 16, the newsletter warned
that 'historically, there has rarely been a more pronounced sell signal ...
When consumers spend, they do so with credit cards. Visa and Master Card both
got hit with a death cross. It's just a matter of time until the discretionary
sector follows. WAIT, THERE IS MORE …High copper
prices are reflective of high demand and a humming economy. Lower copper prices
signal trouble ahead. On June 22, an ominous death cross visited copper's
chart. PUTTING THE ODDS IN YOUR FAVOR Investing is
a game of probabilities. While you always want to have the odds in your favor,
you never want to bet against the odds. Right now, the odds are piling up on
the bearish side of the ledger. Even though Wall Street is saying that the sky
has cleared up, 'meteorologists' with a better track record are warning of the
storm ahead. In fact, there is one rare chart formation that strongly suggests
the onset of a 2008-like decline, a development that's certainly supported by
the number of death crosses spanning a variety of markets. The August issue of
the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter includes a detailed short, mid and
long-term forecast, along with the one chart that tells the market's story and
true bearish potential.
Californians’ income falls for
first time since WWII Sacramento
Bee | The personal incomes of
Golden State workers fell by that amount in 2009 compared with the previous
year.
Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the internet along
with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously opposed same
and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and verizon as
mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc., operatives
at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went
public today with their “policy framework” — better known as the pact to end
the Internet as we know it.
DRUDGEREPORT: America Is 'Bankrupt Mickey
Mouse Economy'...
WIRE: USA 'Bankrupt and We
Don't Even Know It'...
DEFICIT ADDS
$165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT HITS
RECORD HIGH
JOBLESS CLAIMS JUMP TO
HIGHEST SINCE FEB...
California can't pay bills --
may use IOUs for August payments...
DEFICIT ADDS
$165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
Homes lost to foreclosure up
6% from last year...
Grim Voter Mood Turns
Grimmer...
Claims of Afghan civilian
deaths spark protest...
Military sees heavier
fighting in fall...
PAPER: 10 reasons why Obama
presidency is in meltdown...
GALLUP: Even the Poor Are Abandoning Obama; Approval Under
50%...
Obama abolishes White House
position dedicated to transparency...
Michelle Obama popularity
falls...
UPDATE: Suspected serial
killer arrested in Atlanta...
Attempting to flee to israel
… to be with kindred spirits ...
MOB
RUSH FOR FED AID DRAWS RIOT POLICE
DOW drops 265...
Feds rethink policies that
encourage home ownership...
Obama: $3 Billion More in Aid for Unemployed...
US posts widest trade gap in
20 months...
Q2 GDP Growth Could
Be Revised To Just 1% After Trade Data...
PUMP: FED TO BUY MORE DEBT...
DOWNGRADES OUTLOOK...
US-backed fighters in Iraq
defect to al-Qaida... [Winning hearts and minds … for Al Qaida …
just one too many civilian deaths for no good reason at all ]
Republicans Suggest Names for
'Second Stimulus' Bill...
'Where do the bailouts end?' [I feel compelled to comment here that
even capital hill math would be hard-pressed to justify $26 billion taxpayer /
treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save 300,000 state / local government
jobs! After all, the nation is defacto bankrupt! ]
Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the internet along
with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously opposed same
and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and verizon as
mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc., operatives
at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went
public today with their “policy framework” — better known as the pact to end
the Internet as we know it.
Economists
Herald New Great Depression The world is
currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression, according
to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others now
forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.
Riiiiight! That ‘no-longer looking’ dynamic that saves the day and the ue rate
at 9.5%. At this rate of progress, and according to their thinking and
manipulations, full employment at an unprecedented 0% unemployment is just
around the corner as everyone stops looking for the jobs no longer here, many
of which were sent overseas and which are not coming back owing to substantial
economic structural / financial shifts.
Jobs Report: Companies Slow to Hire ABC
News - Only about 8 percent of the 8.4 million jobs lost at the
peak of the recession have been recovered, leaving millions of Americans still
looking for work, according to an analysis by ABC News' Business Unit. Video: News Update: US
Unemployment Rate Holds at 9.5%, 71,000 Jobs Added in June SmarTrend News 71K more jobs not enough to dent unemployment rate The Associated Press
When perusing the headlines and the
following, I immediately thought ‘between Iraq and a hard place (Afghanistan
and america’s defacto bankruptcy)’:
Between a Rock and a Hard Place Jerry Slusiewicz ‘Everyone knows that being between a rock
and a hard place is not a good place to be. That is where the market is right
now. We continue to have terrible news in the housing sector. There is no
general economic recovery as of yet. Jobless claims continue to mount, while
net new jobs are not being created in a significant enough number to even
sustain the population growth (approximately 150,000 net new jobs per month
needed). By far the majority of economic reports for May, June, July, and now
August, have been worse than forecast. That includes home starts, home sales,
home-builder confidence, retail sales, auto sales, consumer confidence, durable
goods orders, manufacturing, jobs, etc. Yet the market rallies or barely goes
down on these bad reports. What gives? It seems that bad news is good news
right now…
Stepping Aside Because I Can Always
Buy Back In Leigh Drogen ‘I sold
out of everything this morning, for a few reasons...’
Were Unemployment Claims Really So 'Unexpected'?
WE’RE UNDERESTIMATING THE BEARISH POTENTIAL , August 3, 2010
’… Will Anything Stop the Market? Something Did
… At the same time,
the April numbers were lowered the second time by an additional 24,000 units,
while May sales were revised lower by 33,000 units. To summarize, April and May
sales were reduced by 57,000 units. Therefore, June sales were 24% above May
sales. By the way, May sales were the lowest on record…
Temporary
Firehouse Closures Begin In Philadelphia CBS
3 | The
city of Philadelphia has started temporarily closing fire stations in order to
balance its budget.
Warning
Signs Suggest Market Headed for Another Collapse
Stocks' Late Push: Some
Optimism, Some Pessimism [Late
push … as in a constipated bowel movement … Come on! Another one of those push
the computer programmed trade button and off we go, reality / valuation /
economics be damned. In real security analysis (very simplified / summarized),
as opposed to the continued frauds on wall street, one must begin with the
largest and most significant aggregate (a simple word picture / analogy:
‘rising tide lifts all boats’). If you get this right, the probabilities in your
favor are substantially enhanced. From there, you want leading industries, and
leading companies within said leading industries (again, larger aggregates then
picks, to enhance probabilities, not guarantees, in your favor). Your time
frame, 1-3-5 yrs tops for projections, (including income statement/EPS, balance
sheet, and applying an appropriate P/E – a detailed, multi-faceted approach
beyond what could be described in this summary); and, that’s all they are,
projections. Beyond that time frame, your guess. On fraudulent wall street,
every day, though already discounted in large part (6-8 mos, approx.), the
market spins, churns, and with lightning fast computerized high-frequency trade
programs commissions in huge volumes like no other time in financial history
when real valuation meant something, with no net economic value added, but very
lucrative to the frauds on wall street, which ultimately is a net detriment to
the economy / the nation /and other industries as we’ve seen and as described
elsewhere on this site and in these posts http://albertpeia.com . Preposterously, they
even sometimes refer to seasonal factors as if hearing them for the first time
and ‘explaining’ an up move (almost invariably already discounted). Today, they
shrugged off the deepening economic reality despite the election year frothing
/ manipulations. This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market
in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in
a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national
decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the
wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and
disgorgement imposed. ].
Slowing economic rebound raises
unemployment fears (AP) [Wow! Talk about understatements!]
Marc Faber Questions if Dow
Could Hit 1,000 In the August edition of the ‘The Gloom, Boom
& Doom Report’ Marc Faber questions whether the Dow could hit 1,000 as predicted by Robert Prechter, based
on his interpretation of Elliot Waves, Fibonacci numbers and socioeconomic
trends. Prechter, who has written 13
books on finance (external link), believes
that the stock market is historically overvalued in terms of dividends and
earnings, because of a “great rise in positive social mood.” But the mood
changed in 2000 and the “trend toward negative social mood will lead to an
economic contraction,” according to Prechter. “Small bear markets lead to
recessions, big bear markets lead to depressions. The current bear market will
be the biggest in nearly 300 years, so the depression will be correspondingly
deep,” Prechter said.
Wall
St falls after weak outlooks drag (Reuters) U.S. stocks sagged in volatile
trading on Thursday after weak outlooks from technology companies and downbeat
comments from a Federal Reserve official gave investors little reason to buy.
Fed says some districts report slowing economy (Reuters)
Flaws of the European Stress Test … 'Bank stress test' became the magic phrase. Nothing calms fear
like a stress test that's labeled as rigorous. The stress test raises a few
very obvious questions: 1) Will it work? 2) Why was it needed in addition to a
$1 trillion aid package? 3) Is the stress test just a gimmick to appease
investors? The stress test is conducted by the London-based Committee of
European Banking Supervisors (CEBS). Ironically, the test has ignored the
majority of banks' holdings of sovereign debt. Sovereign debt concerns by the
so-called PIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain) triggered the
latest wave of financial problems. Ignoring sovereign debt in the Euro stress
test would be like ignoring toxic real estate assets in the U.S. 10%
Good - 90% Bad According to a Morgan Stanley survey, European banks hold about 90%
of their Greek government bonds in their banking books and 10% in their trading
books. The bonds in the banking book are generally held until maturity, the
bonds in the trading book are traded more frequently. According to a document
obtained by Bloomberg, the stress test assumes a loss of 23.1% on Greek debt,
14% on Portuguese bonds, 12.3% on Spanish debt, 4.7% on German debt, 10% on
U.K. debt, and 5.9% on French debt. However, the stress test only looks at the
bonds held in banks' trading books, which account for a mere 10% of Greek bond
holdings. Can that be called a stress test? Nouriel Roubini says that 'the
assumptions made about economic growth, about sovereign risk are not realistic
enough.' The fact that only seven banks failed the test with a combined
shortfall of $4.5 billion confirms the lax nature of the test. … The U.S. Bank Stress Test - A Nice Façade A closer look under the hood of
the U.S. bank stress test, however, shows that there's not much substance
behind the facade either. It was determined that the 19 tested U.S. banks need
to increase their balance sheets by $75 billion to meet the conditions of
what's termed the 'worst case scenario.' To a large extent, the $75 billion of
additional capital was financially engineered. Banks didn't have to actually
raise $75 billion. They were able to change the label of some of their assets
on their balance sheets. The government supported this practice via mandatory
convertible preferred shares (detailed analysis in May 2009 issue of the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter) …’
Moody's:
Regional banks on review for downgrade (AP)
Consumer
confidence dims (Reuters)
Job worries drove July U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest since
February, with one in six people expecting lower income in the next six months,
underscoring the precarious state of econo...
Global
steelmakers paint gloomy picture (Reuters)
US
bank failures in 2010 surpass 100
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. bank failures this year have surpassed a bleak
milestone of 100 as regulators shut down banks in Georgia, Florida, South
Carolina, Kansas, Nevada and Minnesota. The six bank seizures announced Friday
bring to 102 the failures so far in 2010. The pace of bank closures this year
is well ahead of that of last year, which saw a total 140 bank shuttered amid
the recession and mounting loan defaults …
On the Disconnect Between the Market and the Economy Michael Shulman:
(No recession helicopter ben) Bernanke Admits Major Policy Failures; Stocks Soar Darryl Montgomery What's wrong with this picture?
In his bi-annual testimony before Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke
admitted that after more than a year and a half of zero interest rates and $3
trillion in federal deficit spending since 2008, the best case
scenario for the U.S. economy is slow growth and high unemployment. The S&P
500 is up 2.5% so far this morning on this 'good' news. Bernanke's congressional testimony included the
following statements (emphasis added by me):
"Most [FOMC] participants viewed uncertainty
about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the
majority saw [at the June Fed meeting] the risks to growth as weighted to
the downside."
"Financial conditions--though much improved
since the depth of the financial crisis--have become less supportive of
economic growth in recent months."
"Many banks continue to have a large volume
of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight.
With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank
loans outstanding have continued to contract."
"After two years of job losses, private payrolls
expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this
year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially.
In all likelihood, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the
nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009."…
Pat Tillman’s Father To Army
Investigator: ‘F— You… And Yours’ There always was a dark
cinematic thread to the story of Pat Tillman: the football star imbued with
post-9/11 patriotism who was killed in a friendly-fire incident in the Afghan
mountains and the allegations of a massive bureaucratic cover-up involving the
highest levels of the U.S. Army in the wake of the tragedy.
Preparing
for World War III, Targeting Iran Humanity is at a dangerous crossroads.
War preparations to attack Iran are in “an advanced state of readiness”. Hi
tech weapons systems including nuclear warheads are fully deployed.
Pentagon tells WikiLeaks: "Do right thing" (Reuters) [Great
advice … if only the endless war, military complex based pentagon could take
it!] The Pentagon demanded on Thursday that whistle-blower web site WikiLeaks
immediately hand over about 15,000 secret Afghan war records it had not yet
published and erase material it had alrea…
WASHPOST
Ombudsman: Why Silence on Black Panther Story? (Washington Post) ‘Thursday's Post reported about a growing
controversy over the Justice
Department's decision to scale down a voter-intimidation case against members
of the New Black Panther Party. The story succinctly summarized the issues
but left many readers with a question: What took you so long? For months,
readers have contacted the ombudsman wondering why The Post hasn't been
covering the case. The calls increased recently after competitors such as the
New York Times and the Associated Press wrote stories. Fox News and right-wing
bloggers have been pumping the story. Liberal bloggers have countered, accusing
them of trying to manufacture a scandal. But The Post has been virtually
silent. The story has its origins on Election Day in 2008, when two members of
the New Black Panther Party stood in front of a Philadelphia polling place. YouTube
video of the men, now viewed nearly 1.5 million times, shows both wearing
paramilitary clothing. One carried a nightstick…’
Latino
KKK: You are too white to be American! ALIPAC | Tan
Klan woman can scream racist comments because the Obama administration and most
of the major news networks in America have her back.
Down in the Dumps Street: Dave's Daily Wall Street now Dump Street.
Options Action: Bearish Bet on the Market ‘During tumultuous times you want to protect your
portfolio but how should you do it? Brian Stutland has a strategy using the S&P
ETF He suggests selling
a call against a long position.
[$$] Prepping for a Data-Filled Friday [Writing covered calls is an interesting,
conservative financial strategy that certainly can enhance overall return, but
as well, limit upside potential / capital gains … which in this market is ‘no
problemo’ whatsoever, reality considered ]‘There were several folks out this
morning yelling to buy the dip (Jim Cramer was one of them), and traders who
followed that advice did pretty well. Rather than buying the dip, I used the
initial drop to escape some positions I thought were going to expire worthless,
then I used the bounce to lighten up more. Bears were able to get the SPDR back
under the $108.75 to $108.88 area, which I see as key right now. Another Friday
and I'm curious to see any impact from the weekly options. Will the big names
be stuck right around the strikes where they stand now? Unfortunately, the
bigger tech names are closer to their downward strikes than their higher
strikes, so that could pressure the market. One name that doesn't seem to care
is Baidu. It is right in between the $80 and $85 strike right now, so...’
U.S.
trade deficit startles markets (Washington Post) [ Unexpectedly? I don’t
think so! And, I have my site, other references / links and posts to prove it;
and, what’s more, I’m not alone. After all, what are NAFTAs for anyway.
However, I also must candidly admit I don’t frequent the mainstream blather /
propaganda that includes the ‘money-honeys’ (when the messenger’s more
important than the message, problems and distortions are bound to follow) and
their ilk, etc.. NBR’s
about it and even they have their pressures (I don’t consider the Washington
Post mainstream in the pejorative sense of the word, with a rich journalistic
history to back that up, all things considered) ]. Unexpectedly bad news from
three continents reinforces fears that global recovery is faltering.
Obama signs $26 billion jobs
bill (WP) [I feel compelled to
comment here that even using capital hill math one would be hard-pressed to
justify $26 billion taxpayer / treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save
300,000 state / local government jobs! After all, the nation is defacto
bankrupt! I think the former Soviet Union would have done the same.]
Fed action signals new activism (Washington
Post) [ Riiiiight! The activist fed! That’s all we need. As if we needed more
of what brought us to this point! Certainly the fed’s role in the continuing
and current financial crisis / debacle cannot be ignored or disputed. Nothing
like a hegelian methodology to create
the very problems for which they are called upon to offer solutions, increasing
their sense of importance, and concentrating power thereby. (Think about it. It
is really rather quite absurd that each meeting time the financial markets hold
their bated breath for these incompetent boobs). Then there’s the cover-up with
an opportunity for enrichment of some, usually the tight-lipped yes-men then
ever after and forever bonded in what becomes tantamount to an almost fraternal
link by ‘virtue’ of the crime thereby. No, I’m not saying their initial
missteps were necessarily badly intended, but the manipulations thereafter to
obfuscate their incompetence (senile greenspun, no-recession-helicopter-ben,
etc.) comes at a great price and is nothing less than tantamount to or just
outright crime. I’d abolish the fed without hesitation or compunction. After
all, at this point of decline and defacto bankruptcy of the nation you
certainly can’t point to success nor argue their indispensability. Then there’s
also the missing trillions, over-printing of fiat currency, and all that sub
rosa activity with the worthless fraudulent toxic paper which I believe is
being supplanted with ultimately hard currency to the great benefit of the
frauds and great detriment to the nation.]
Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the internet along
with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously opposed same
and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and verizon as
mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc., operatives
at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government hands! ]. So Google
and Verizon went public today with their “policy framework” — better known as
the pact to end the Internet as we know it.
Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the internet along
with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously opposed same
and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and verizon as
mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc., operatives
at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went
public today with their “policy framework” — better known as the pact to end
the Internet as we know it.
Riiiiight! That ‘no-longer looking’ dynamic that saves the day and the ue rate
at 9.5%. At this rate of progress, and according to their thinking and
manipulations, full employment at an unprecedented 0% unemployment is just
around the corner as everyone stops looking for the jobs no longer here, many
of which were sent overseas and which are not coming back owing to substantial
economic structural / financial shifts.
Jobs Report: Companies Slow to Hire ABC
News - Only about 8 percent of the 8.4 million jobs lost at the
peak of the recession have been recovered, leaving millions of Americans still
looking for work, according to an analysis by ABC News' Business Unit. Video: News Update: US
Unemployment Rate Holds at 9.5%, 71,000 Jobs Added in June SmarTrend News 71K more jobs not enough to dent unemployment rate The Associated Press
When perusing the headlines and the
following, I immediately thought ‘between Iraq and a hard place (Afghanistan
and america’s defacto bankruptcy)’:
Between a Rock and a Hard Place Jerry Slusiewicz ‘Everyone knows that being between a rock
and a hard place is not a good place to be. That is where the market is right
now. We continue to have terrible news in the housing sector. There is no
general economic recovery as of yet. Jobless claims continue to mount, while
net new jobs are not being created in a significant enough number to even
sustain the population growth (approximately 150,000 net new jobs per month
needed). By far the majority of economic reports for May, June, July, and now
August, have been worse than forecast. That includes home starts, home sales,
home-builder confidence, retail sales, auto sales, consumer confidence, durable
goods orders, manufacturing, jobs, etc. Yet the market rallies or barely goes
down on these bad reports. What gives? It seems that bad news is good news
right now…
Stepping Aside Because I Can Always
Buy Back In Leigh Drogen ‘I sold
out of everything this morning, for a few reasons…First, breakouts don’t always
work and momentum stocks have a habit of ending their trends abruptly.
Second, …I can buy back in this afternoon if I change my mind (not likely). I
see more risk to the downside here than I do to the upside. …Third, the jobs
number tomorrow scares me. No, it doesn’t matter what the number is, we all
know it’s going to be bad, what matters is how the market reacts, and I have
the feel it’s not going to be good. Fourth, many of my oscillators are
overbought here.Fifth, and finally, I don’t like the fact that this rally has primarily
taken place on the back of the most beaten down sectors. …It all just doesn’t
pass the smell test for me. I’ve been successful at this not because I’m always
right, but because I know when I’m wrong and I’m willing to change course or
step aside. Right now, I’ll step aside.’
Were Unemployment Claims Really So 'Unexpected'?
WE’RE UNDERESTIMATING THE BEARISH POTENTIAL , August 3, 2010
’… Will Anything Stop the Market? Something Did
… At the same time, the April numbers were lowered the second time by an
additional 24,000 units, while May sales were revised lower by 33,000 units. To
summarize, April and May sales were reduced by 57,000 units. Therefore, June
sales were 24% above May sales. By the way, May sales were the lowest on
record…
Temporary
Firehouse Closures Begin In Philadelphia CBS 3 | The city
of Philadelphia has started temporarily closing fire stations in order to
balance its budget.
Warning
Signs Suggest Market Headed for Another Collapse
Stocks' Late Push: Some
Optimism, Some Pessimism [Late
push … as in a constipated bowel movement … Come on! Another one of those push
the computer programmed trade button and off we go, reality / valuation /
economics be damned. In real security analysis (very simplified / summarized),
as opposed to the continued frauds on wall street, one must begin with the
largest and most significant aggregate (a simple word picture / analogy:
‘rising tide lifts all boats’). If you get this right, the probabilities in
your favor are substantially enhanced. From there, you want leading industries,
and leading companies within said leading industries (again, larger aggregates
then picks, to enhance probabilities, not guarantees, in your favor). Your time
frame, 1-3-5 yrs tops for projections, (including income statement/EPS, balance
sheet, and applying an appropriate P/E – a detailed, multi-faceted approach beyond
what could be described in this summary); and, that’s all they are,
projections. Beyond that time frame, your guess. On fraudulent wall street,
every day, though already discounted in large part (6-8 mos, approx.), the
market spins, churns, and with lightning fast computerized high-frequency trade
programs commissions in huge volumes like no other time in financial history
when real valuation meant something, with no net economic value added, but very
lucrative to the frauds on wall street, which ultimately is a net detriment to
the economy / the nation /and other industries as we’ve seen and as described
elsewhere on this site and in these posts http://albertpeia.com . Preposterously, they
even sometimes refer to seasonal factors as if hearing them for the first time
and ‘explaining’ an up move (almost invariably already discounted). Today, they
shrugged off the deepening economic reality despite the election year frothing
/ manipulations. This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market
in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in
a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national
decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the
wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and
disgorgement imposed. ].
Slowing economic rebound raises
unemployment fears (AP) [Wow! Talk about understatements!]
Marc Faber Questions if Dow Could
Hit 1,000 In the August edition of the ‘The Gloom, Boom
& Doom Report’ Marc Faber questions whether the Dow could hit 1,000 as predicted by Robert Prechter,
based on his interpretation of Elliot Waves, Fibonacci numbers and
socioeconomic trends. Prechter, who has written 13
books on finance (external link), believes that the
stock market is historically overvalued in terms of dividends and earnings,
because of a “great rise in positive social mood.” But the mood changed in 2000
and the “trend toward negative social mood will lead to an economic
contraction,” according to Prechter. “Small bear markets lead to recessions,
big bear markets lead to depressions. The current bear market will be the
biggest in nearly 300 years, so the depression will be correspondingly deep,”
Prechter said.
Wall
St falls after weak outlooks drag (Reuters) U.S. stocks sagged in volatile
trading on Thursday after weak outlooks from technology companies and downbeat
comments from a Federal Reserve official gave investors little reason to buy.
Fed says some districts report slowing economy (Reuters)
Flaws of the European Stress Test … 'Bank stress test' became the magic phrase. Nothing calms fear
like a stress test that's labeled as rigorous. The stress test raises a few very
obvious questions: 1) Will it work? 2) Why was it needed in addition to a $1
trillion aid package? 3) Is the stress test just a gimmick to appease
investors? The stress test is conducted by the London-based Committee of
European Banking Supervisors (CEBS). Ironically, the test has ignored the
majority of banks' holdings of sovereign debt. Sovereign debt concerns by the
so-called PIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain) triggered the
latest wave of financial problems. Ignoring sovereign debt in the Euro stress
test would be like ignoring toxic real estate assets in the U.S. 10%
Good - 90% Bad According to a Morgan Stanley survey, European banks
hold about 90% of their Greek government bonds in their banking books and 10%
in their trading books. The bonds in the banking book are generally held until
maturity, the bonds in the trading book are traded more frequently. According
to a document obtained by Bloomberg, the stress test assumes a loss of 23.1% on
Greek debt, 14% on Portuguese bonds, 12.3% on Spanish debt, 4.7% on German
debt, 10% on U.K. debt, and 5.9% on French debt. However, the stress test only
looks at the bonds held in banks' trading books, which account for a mere 10%
of Greek bond holdings. Can that be called a stress test? Nouriel Roubini says
that 'the assumptions made about economic growth, about sovereign risk are not
realistic enough.' The fact that only seven banks failed the test with a
combined shortfall of $4.5 billion confirms the lax nature of the test. … The U.S. Bank Stress Test - A Nice Façade
A closer look under the hood of the U.S. bank stress test, however, shows that
there's not much substance behind the facade either. It was determined that the
19 tested U.S. banks need to increase their balance sheets by $75 billion to
meet the conditions of what's termed the 'worst case scenario.' To a large
extent, the $75 billion of additional capital was financially engineered. Banks
didn't have to actually raise $75 billion. They were able to change the label
of some of their assets on their balance sheets. The government supported this
practice via mandatory convertible preferred shares (detailed analysis in May
2009 issue of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter) …’
Moody's:
Regional banks on review for downgrade (AP)
Consumer
confidence dims (Reuters)
Job worries drove July U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest since
February, with one in six people expecting lower income in the next six months,
underscoring the precarious state of econo...
Global
steelmakers paint gloomy picture (Reuters)
US
bank failures in 2010 surpass 100
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. bank failures this year have surpassed a bleak
milestone of 100 as regulators shut down banks in Georgia, Florida, South
Carolina, Kansas, Nevada and Minnesota. The six bank seizures announced Friday
bring to 102 the failures so far in 2010. The pace of bank closures this year
is well ahead of that of last year, which saw a total 140 bank shuttered amid
the recession and mounting loan defaults …
On the Disconnect Between the Market and the Economy Michael Shulman:
(No recession helicopter ben) Bernanke Admits Major Policy Failures; Stocks Soar Darryl Montgomery What's wrong with this picture?
In his bi-annual testimony before Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke
admitted that after more than a year and a half of zero interest rates and $3
trillion in federal deficit spending since 2008, the best case
scenario for the U.S. economy is slow growth and high unemployment. The S&P
500 is up 2.5% so far this morning on this 'good' news. Bernanke's congressional testimony included the
following statements (emphasis added by me):
"Most [FOMC] participants viewed uncertainty
about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the
majority saw [at the June Fed meeting] the risks to growth as weighted to
the downside."
"Financial conditions--though much improved
since the depth of the financial crisis--have become less supportive of
economic growth in recent months."
"Many banks continue to have a large volume
of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight.
With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank
loans outstanding have continued to contract."
"After two years of job losses, private payrolls
expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this
year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially.
In all likelihood, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the
nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009."…
Preparing
for World War III, Targeting Iran Humanity is at a dangerous crossroads.
War preparations to attack Iran are in “an advanced state of readiness”. Hi
tech weapons systems including nuclear warheads are fully deployed.
Pentagon tells WikiLeaks: "Do right thing" (Reuters) [Great
advice … if only the endless war, military complex based pentagon could take
it!] The Pentagon demanded on Thursday that whistle-blower web site WikiLeaks
immediately hand over about 15,000 secret Afghan war records it had not yet
published and erase material it had alrea…
Oliver
Stone has apologized for his anti-Semitic rant, but is the damage already done.
What damage? To perceived reality as opposed to reality? When you look at
america’s pro-israel, self-destructive, contra-indicated policies, including
the hands off policy vis-à-vis fraudulent wall street, you see the truth to
what he says which is what so many astute individuals are already thinking /
realizing. How can people continue to ignore the truth, to their own detriment
Think about it. Do you really think he would risk the typical onslaught if the
same weren’t true? ‘Director Oliver
Stone has been forced to make a grovelling apology over an anti-Semitic
outburst. The double Academy Award winner claimed that the Russians suffered
more during the Second World War and that there was a Jewish 'domination of the
media'. Stone also said that Jews had '****ed up' U.S. foreign policy for years
and suggested the British supported Hitler ...’ The relentless attacks on Mel
Gibson are of the same caliber and purpose; suppression of truth!
WASHPOST
Ombudsman: Why Silence on Black Panther Story? (Washington Post) ‘Thursday's Post reported about a growing
controversy over the Justice
Department's decision to scale down a voter-intimidation case against members
of the New Black Panther Party. The story succinctly summarized the issues
but left many readers with a question: What took you so long? For months,
readers have contacted the ombudsman wondering why The Post hasn't been
covering the case. The calls increased recently after competitors such as the
New York Times and the Associated Press wrote stories. Fox News and right-wing
bloggers have been pumping the story. Liberal bloggers have countered, accusing
them of trying to manufacture a scandal. But The Post has been virtually
silent. The story has its origins on Election Day in 2008, when two members of
the New Black Panther Party stood in front of a Philadelphia polling place. YouTube
video of the men, now viewed nearly 1.5 million times, shows both wearing
paramilitary clothing. One carried a nightstick…’
Latino
KKK: You are too white to be American! ALIPAC | Tan Klan woman can scream racist
comments because the Obama administration and most of the major news networks
in America have her back.
In weak economy, more people are filing early
for Social Security (Washington Post) I think this to be a combination of prescience and ‘get while the
getting’s good’. After all, this is an unfunded promise meant to be broken by
defacto bankrupt America.
In
Iraq, $2.6B unaccounted for (Washington Post) [Daaah! Fog of war frauds among others; the nation’s
treasury pillaged and plundered; I’ve previously commented here and included on
my website http://albertpeia.com , see infra] Pentagon can't account for how it spent $2.6 billion of Iraqi oil
proceeds, an IG report says.
The
power of Palin's touch
(Washington Post) [Wow! Talk about stupid. Murphy could have eliminated the
middle-man (person) and appeared on SNL himself; maybe reprising a familiar
(Eddie) Murphy role as Gumby 2, Son of Gumby. The only thing funnier is palin
herself. She’s so embarrassingly dumb!] .Endorsement lifts little-known
candidate in Md., giving the struggling campaign a "megaphone."
Gerald Celente On the Alex
Jones Show: Double Dip Depression Will Lead Us Into War The white shoe boys are
taking us into the worst depression in history.
Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the internet along
with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously opposed same
and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and verizon as
mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc., operatives
at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went
public today with their “policy framework” — better known as the pact to end
the Internet as we know it.
What
Pentagon cuts mean for future of defense contractors (Washington Post) Well, taking a page from the fraudulent wall street glass
always half full even when empty camp, they might say more pie and less
competition for that inner circle of frauds. You know, this is a dead goose
with gold-plated eggs scenario. Reality: U.S.
IS BANKRUPT AND WE DON’T EVEN KNOW IT : LAURENCE KOTLIKOFF AUG. 11
(BLOOMBERG) -(WASHINGTON POST) - LET’S GET
REAL. THE U.S. IS BANKRUPT. NEITHER SPENDING MORE NOR TAXING LESS WILL HELP THE
COUNTRY PAY ITS BILLS ... Peter Schiff: “We’re in the
Early Stages of a Depression” The
Motley Fool | Four years and the worst
recession since the Great Depression later, Schiff stands alone again with a
bleaker diagnosis for the economy: an inflationary depression.
Yeah!
Dave’s the only one who seems to be on the mark concerning the preposterous
market action this day. Even before reading same I was going to comment here
that I believed that the decision to ‘mouse click / button push’ the programmed
buy trades was probably made after hours in the previous session. Remember,
these are desperate criminally insane frauds on wall street who really try very
hard to get people to by into their paper-churning high-frequency trade /
commission scam for which ultimately potentially productive money is siphoned
off / drained from the economy into their pockets which is a net negative in
real economic terms. They know all the tricks, technical trendlines, moving
averages, etc., to suck them in: Buy Program Express Lifts Markets: Dave's Daily - The
economic news from the unemployment report could not be worse and an old
pattern was repeated -- higher volume on a selloff followed by an engineered
"stick save" into the close. It used to be hard to make this stuff
up, now it's becoming routine. As noted yesterday, bulls might like bad data
since they'd expect another round of quantitative easing (QE2) from the Fed and
a politically desperate administration. This means more liquidity baby and an
opportunity to lift stocks to new highs. That's the thinking from bizzaro-land.
So we get another big intraday 150 point swing in the DJIA as the "2:15 PM
Buy Program Express" hits the tape on time as volume starts to dry up.
That's why the caution sign advises to stay away from the Program Trading
Express. Nevertheless, volume increased
Friday with most of that coming early and often. Breadth was negative but not
overwhelmingly so.
(08-09-10)
Economists
Herald New Great Depression The world is currently
experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression, according to a
prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others now forecasting
ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.
Economist
sticks by stimulus, regrets call on jobless rate (Washington Post) Well,
they skipped the ‘fall on her sword for the sake of the empire’ part, albeit a
defacto bankrupt empire … or, maybe that’s why she was chosen … because she’s a
Rome ..r. I’m still perplexed since ‘no-recession-helicopter-ben’ bernanke and
senile greenspun have far worse track records and indeed have been causative
agents for crises owing to their consistent ‘misdiagnoses’, and as if tenured
to said position received no such critical, job-jeopardizing scrutiny ( I’d
abolish the fed, absent full audit / transparency. In other words, I’d abolish
the fed).
Jobs Report: Companies Slow to Hire Only about 8 percent of the 8.4 million
jobs lost at the peak of the recession have been recovered, leaving millions of
Americans still looking for work, according to an analysis by ABC News'
Business Unit. Video: News Update: US
Unemployment Rate Holds at 9.5%, 71,000 Jobs Added in June SmarTrend News 71K more jobs not enough to dent unemployment rate The Associated Press
Come on! Preposterous!
Service sector? You mean the the b*** s*** sector. Even if believed (I don’t
believe anything they say, and at the least all must be discounted down, as
they do later when people have forgotten that’s the purported reason they
rallied), what is 17,000 service (predominantly b*** s*** government bought
jobs with non-existent deficit building funds with some exceptions – yes, 80%
of america’s economy is now b*** s*** and as on wall street, fraud) jobs in the
relative scheme of things given the magnitude of the problems, structural and
otherwise? Nothing! Stocks went up on typically spun ‘nothing’.
General's
record is set straight (Washington Post) Knowing for sure, you know, that it
truly was Nixon who banged that pregnant girl just like the tea shirt said is
kind of a mind altering experience. After all, just as Truman once said, Nixon
didn’t know whether he’s lying or telling the truth. Well, that’s one for old
saint Nixon since that militates against intent; you know, the not knowing
part, and after all, he was a liar(sic) by trade. Truth be told, by more
current american standards of corruption, venality, verity, etc., Nixon was but
a choir boy. The irony of it all. Oh,
the times they are a changin’.
Comment on: Jobs
in the cards? at 8/4/2010 6:11 AM EDT
How Obama can help small
business (Washington Post) You’re a bit late … they’ve already decided how to
help … you might call their plan of putting them out of their vaunted misery
mercy killing, euthanasia, etc..
FHA: Mortgage insurance claims down (Washington Post) At least somethin’s goin’
up, according to tiny tim ‘God bless us, everyone’! Treasury Secretary Timothy
Geithner: Unemployment Could Go Up Before It Comes Down Infowars.com - [Ooooh!
Sounds like a plan ‘tiny tim’! … God bless us everyone! ] Treasury Secretary
Timothy Geithner acknowledged that it is still a “tough economy” for most
americans, and warned it’s possible the unemployment rate will go up for a
couple of months before it comes down as more people enter the labor force.
U.S. savings rate at highest level in a year, data show: UNEASE ABOUT U.S.
ECONOMY
Data suggest recovery not yet self-sustaining (Washington Post) Riiiight!
Income and spending basically unchanged with falloff in both, while pending
housing sales down to the lowest level on record. The half-glass full frauds on
wall street will take it. They can spin that.
Drudgereport: NEW LOW FOR O: USATODAYGALLUP HAS OBAMA APPROVE AT 41%...
Americans swap passports; Desire to avoid tax leads some to renounce
citizenship...
FALTERING RECOVERY TRIPS DOLLAR...
GM, FORD and CHRYSLER Sales All Lag Estimates...
Comment on: FHA
is in better shape than expected at
8/4/2010 5:55 AM EDT
FHA: Mortgage insurance
claims down (Washington Post) At least somethin’s goin’ up, according to tiny
tim ‘God bless us, everyone’! Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner: Unemployment
Could Go Up Before It Comes Down Infowars.com - [Ooooh! Sounds like a plan
‘tiny tim’! … God bless us everyone! ] Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner
acknowledged that it is still a “tough economy” for most americans, and warned
it’s possible the unemployment rate will go up for a couple of months before it
comes down as more people enter the labor force.
Comment on: As
wages stall, savings rate rises at
8/4/2010 4:56 AM EDT
U.S. savings rate at
highest level in a year, data show (Washington Post) Riiiight! Income and
spending basically unchanged with falloff in both, while pending housing sales
down to the lowest level on record. The half-glass full frauds on wall street
will take it.
Comment on: Democrats
turn to manufacturing for jobs at 8/4/2010
4:52 AM EDT
Manufacturing focus of
jobs plan (Washington Post) L’il bit late, but, sounds like a plan. The government’s
defacto bankrupt, but, they could always use an extra pen or two for signing
those spending bills. No bics allowed. Made in usa pens only. Ah! But alas.
Defacto bankrupt america’s expertise now lies in manufacturing wars.
Slowing economic rebound raises
unemployment fears (AP) [Wow! Talk about understatements!]
PricewaterhouseCoopers
laying off 500 employees
(Washington Post) Well, the least you can say for these accountants is
that unlike washington, they can do basic math (add / subtract).
Regulators
close banks (108 total 2010) in Fla., Ga., Ore., Wash. (Washington Post)
Sounds like a plan! Things going swimmingly. Just separating the wheat from the
chaff, so to speak.
U.S.
recovery hopes fade as economic growth dips (Washington
Post) Gross domestic product is not rising fast enough to ease unemployment …
Previous-Mideast
Digest Israeli shelling kills 2 wounds 6 Gaza civilians: (Washington Post)
[War criminal israelis justified their attack saying when the 10 year
old girl grew up to be a woman she’d be prepared to fire rockets at them]
In 1948, U.S. Secretary of Defense James Forrestal, an opponent
of the creation of a Jewish state in Palestine, warned that, even though
failure to go along with the Zionists might cost President Truman the states of
New York, Pennsylvania, and California, it was about time that somebody should
pay some consideration to whether we might not lose the United States. Mr.
Forrestal was absolutely correct! Isn’t that exactly what’s happened to defacto
bankrupt america in intractable decline.
TIME
TO REVOKE AND NULLIFY THE BALFOUR DECLARATION AND ABROGATE THE CREATION OF THE
NATION STATE OF ISRAEL
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
DIGEST: Consumer confidence down; home
prices up (from and at low levels which Shiller’s concedes are for
the moment stabilized but unsustainable) (Washington Post) The positive here is that at least the
consumers / populace have finally got something right.
Consumer
confidence dims (Reuters)
Job worries drove July U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest since
February, with one in six people expecting lower income in the next six months,
underscoring the precarious state of econo...
Moody's:
Regional banks on review for downgrade (AP)
Global
steelmakers paint gloomy picture (Reuters)
US
bank failures in 2010 surpass 100
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. bank failures this year have surpassed a bleak
milestone of 100 as regulators shut down banks in Georgia, Florida, South
Carolina, Kansas, Nevada and Minnesota. The six bank seizures announced Friday
bring to 102 the failures so far in 2010. The pace of bank closures this year
is well ahead of that of last year, which saw a total 140 bank shuttered amid
the recession and mounting loan defaults …
This is quite incredible. The wobama market … based on b*** s***
alone. Yes, there’s a waning full moon. Yes, this is an election year and we’ve
seen frothing, false data / reports before. But come on! This is downright ridiculous.
I had occasion to hear from a so-called money manager on what used to be a
balanced business / finance radio program (I seldom listen to said program
anymore, truth be told, but owing to a scheduling quirk caught same this day)
say that all the economic / business news last week was good. In point of fact,
the actual news was all bad (except for some sporadic earnings reports that
were discounted many months ago). What parallel universe are these foisty
feisty frauds living in? Again, waning full moon Then the infamous federal but
not really federal, express in only a month (with blazing full moon) changed
downward guidance to upward guidance and based on b*** s***, and voila …
another full moon rally (oh yeah, the percentage up from low level housing
still low). Are the 30 day lunar cycles at work or just election year frothing?
Preposterous. Fundamentals have not changed. Structural problems to the economy
and insurmountable debt remain and will worsen. All their computer programmed
trading tricks with eye towards so-called technical support, resistance, etc.,
levels will suck some suckers in as always, they’ll still get their commissions
on the way down, and we’ll see the bubble deflate again.
This is an especially great opportunity to sell and take whatever
profits / gains because there is truly much worse to come and the nation’s
defacto bankrupt in every way.
This Week in the Markets - Suttmeier ‘ …Bank Failure Friday – The FDIC closed
seven banks last Friday bringing the total for the month of July to 17 and 103
for the year. Month to date bank failures have drained the FDIC Deposit
Insurance fund by $925.7 million brining the year to date today to $18.5
billion well above the $15.33 billion prepaid assessments for all of 2010. I
estimate that the DIF is now in arrears by $32.7 billion.
The Death of Paper Money Ambrose
Evans-Pritchard | As they
prepare for holiday reading in Tuscany, City bankers are buying up rare copies
of an obscure book on the mechanics of Weimar inflation published in 1974.
Yes! I just (7-24-10) looked up and a
quandary no longer as I saw the reason for the market action to the upside the
last few sessions. A blazing full moon! Lest there be any doubt, truly a
testament to the reality of lunacy and the lunar links thereto are the lunatic
fraudulent rallies on fraudulent wall street; criminally insane by any
standard.
This
is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression.
The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market.
This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes
with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and
sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato
scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national
decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted,
jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Push
to cut top brass causing much unease (Washington Post) [ Of ‘geese and gold-plated
eggs’ … I think only fables, cartoons, and nursery rhymes are the means by
which to convey the depth and seriousness of america’s decline / bankruptcy.
They really just don’t get it. Denial. Mental infirmity. Outright stupidity.
Whatever the reason, reality is what it is. DRUDGEREPORT: America Is 'Bankrupt Mickey Mouse Economy'...
WIRE: USA 'Bankrupt and We
Don't Even Know It'...
DEFICIT ADDS
$165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT HITS RECORD HIGH
JOBLESS CLAIMS JUMP TO
HIGHEST SINCE FEB...
California can't pay bills --
may use IOUs for August payments...
DEFICIT ADDS
$165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
Homes lost to foreclosure up
6% from last year...
Grim Voter Mood Turns
Grimmer... and others Economists
Herald New Great Depression … ] None of the Pentagon's spending cuts and
budget battles is causing more angst than Robert Gates's vow to trim number of
generals and admirals.
Petraeus:
Strategy is on track (Washington
Post) (What strategy? It just gets worse. america’s defacto bankrupt! Plus,
we’ve heard this before! Drudgereport:
Petraeus: 'We're doing
everything we can' …[Sounds like a plan!]...Builds Case for 'Success' in
Afghanistan …[If only words could make it so!]...) In Washington Post interview, general says he sees
signs of progress in Afghanistan, supports Obama's decision to begin
withdrawing troops next July.
China
focuses on military might (Washington Post) [And the big difference here (between them
and defacto bankrupt america) is that ‘THEY CAN AFFORD IT’ and are not fighting
nation-bankrupting, anti-american-sentiment-creating wars all over the place.] Nation is quickly modernizing forces,
extending influence deep into Pacific and Indian oceans.
Afghans
still see U.S. as bad guy (Washington
Post ) [Riiiiight! Sounds
like a plan … winning hearts and minds throughout the world … great for exports
also as such ‘won hearts and minds’ just love to buy american.] American, NATO
forces retain blame for civilian deaths despite spike from insurgent violence.
U.S. looks to replicate Iraq
strategy, tactics (Washington Post ) [Oh right! Stick with that winning plan that worked so swimmingly (as
in drowning, in ie., debt, death, regional if not wordly anti-american
sentiment, etc.)]. In Kandahar, U.S. military
officials hope that a secure green zone, similar to the area in Baghdad, will
make it more difficult for Taliban insurgents to mount attacks to key buildings
in the Afghan city.
Accountability is unclear in israeli probe of flotilla
raid (Washington
Post) Oh, come on! An israeli probe of an
israeli massacre of civilians. Time for israel to pay; for illegal nukes, for
violations of international law, for continued violations of u.n. resolutions,
for provocations as pretexts to sabotage peace talks, and on and on ad nauseum.
Why does america among other nations feel compelled to sacrifice themselves for
the sake of a global criminal nation with an insatiable greed and blood-thirst
as israel?
The
israeli Spin-Machine in Overdrive: dershowitz to the Rescue? Armed
Israeli commandos, the elite of the elites, rappelled to the deck of a Turkish
ship carrying humanitarian relief supplies to the 1.5 million prisoners in the
Gaza concentration camp.
Previous-Mideast
Digest Israeli shelling kills 2 wounds 6 Gaza civilians: (Washington Post)
[War criminal israelis justified their attack saying when the 10 year
old girl grew up to be a woman she’d be prepared to fire rockets at them …
press on says fellow war criminal defacto bankrupt nation america] israeli shellfire killed two Palestinian freedom
fighters and wounded six people, including a 10-year-old girl, in the Gaza
Strip, Palestinian medical workers and an official with a militant group said.
An israeli military spokeswoman said soldiers opened fire on militants
suspected of preparing to fire a rocket at them.
Comment on: Mideast
Digest at 8/4/2010 5:44 AM EDT
Mideast Digest
(Washington Post, August 4, 2010) Blowback’s a reality. One that only fools
would ignore, defacto bankrupt america. Time to throw hated war criminal nation
israel under the bus. Why should america sacrifice itself for the war mongering
israelis. They’d NEVER do that for america. I’ve even heard analysts with
regional expertise say that the nation was better off under sadam.
Top Secret America: How
the DOD does it (Washington Post) Does what? Come On! You can’t take this
guy seriously. First, he’s military; what do you expect him to say. Second, he
talks of wars as if they always have to have one or be searching for one and we
all know they “find” them. Finally, he all but ignores what the underrated
President General Eisenhower warned of in the form of the unscrupulous,
insatiably greedy military/industrial complex which as colonel he but a very
small cog in who goes along to get along. The fact is also that they can’t be
managed and also that they don’t even try!
Afghanistan war deaths (Washington
Post) What a colossal waste; the u.s. might even spin this to a growth
scenario, albeit in deaths. For General Petraeus, battling corruption in
Afghanistan is a priority (Washington Post) If Betraeus is
serious, he better look closer to home / u.s.!
WikiLeaks documents cause little concern over
public perception of war: WikiLeaks documents cause little concern over
public perception of war (Washington Post) Of course not! That’s what defacto
coup d’etat is all about (even beyond their propaganda). The public,
overwhelming against these nation-bankrupting illegal wars (america is defacto
bankrupt) which fact propelled spineless incompetent vegetable wobama to the
whitehouse, has become irrelevant in their view,; but, not so fast as mass
unrest is afoot.
Ron
Paul: After ‘CIA coup,’ agency ‘runs military’ US House Rep. Ron Paul
says the CIA has has in effect carried out a “coup” against the US government,
and the intelligence agency needs to be “taken out.” I also personally
believe there has been a defacto coup d’etat which has manifested in
various substantial, blatant, brazened frauds, ie., wall street, missing 360
tons of $100 bills in Iraq, war profiteering, etc., without any fear of
prosecution, and of course concomitant decline for u.s. as the treasury is
looted. But I also believe its scope is beyond just the CIA with many complicit
within the corrupted 3 branches of u.s. government (fed judges, us attorneys,
illegal system, etc.) plus the military and private big money, ie., Goldman
Sachs / wall street men, etc., among other organized crime. america is defacto
bankrupt in every way!
In
Iraq, $2.6B unaccounted for (Washington Post) [Daaah! Fog of war frauds among others; the nation’s
treasury pillaged and plundered; I’ve previously commented here and included on
my website http://albertpeia.com , see infra] Pentagon can't account for how it spent $2.6 billion of Iraqi oil
proceeds, an IG report says.
Articles on Catherine Austin Fitts' Blog: http://solari.com
Billions
over Baghdadby
Donald L. Barlett and James B. Steele - Vanity FairSeptember 2007
Those Who Blow Whistle on
Contractor Fraud in Iraq Face PenaltiesDeborah Hastings -
APAugust 2007
Auditor Quits with NASA
Finances in ChaosBy
Arindam Nag and Deborah ZabarenkoMay 15, 2004
The War on WasteCBS NewsCiting "cooked books" at DoD,
Rumsfeld on the missing $2.3 trillion, ... January 29, 2002
Military Stashes Covert
Millions St.
Petersburg TimesSeptember 28, 2003
Key
Documents
U.S.
Department of Defense Web Site "The technology revolution has transformed
organizations across the private sector, but not ours, not fully, not yet. We
are, as they say, tangled in our anchor chain. Our financial systems are
decades old. According to some estimates, we cannot track $2.3 trillion in
transactions. We cannot share information from floor to floor in this building
because it's stored on dozens of technological systems that are inaccessible or
incompatible."- Remarks as Delivered by Secretary of Defense Donald H.
Rumsfeld, The Pentagon, Monday, September 10, 2001 Independent Audit Report - Department of DefenseRe: $1.1 Trillion Missing from DODFebruary 26, 2002
Testimony of the Inspector General - Department of Housing
& Urban DevelopmentRe: $59 Billion Missing from HUD March 22, 2000 Discrepancies in America's
Accounts Hide a Black Hole By Daniel Gros, Financial Times June 15, 2006
Road to Ruin by Eric Sprott, Sprott Asset Management Regarding
the $11 Trillion Deficit in the US Government in FY 2004January 2005
U.S.' Missing $Trillions Make
Mainstream At LastScoop
Media's version of the Chronicle Story with more links addedMay 26, 2003
Dillon,
Read & Co. Inc. and the Aristocracy of Stock Profits by Catherine
Austin Fitts A case study of two teams each
with competing visions for America.April 2006
Estimate $3.3 Trillion Missing From U.S. Treasuryby Buddy Grizzard An excellent overview integrating
coverage by key investigative journalists August 2002
Where is the Collateral? and So, Where is the Collateral?A two-part series by Chris Sanders of Sanders
Research Associates in London
These articles connect the dots between the missing money, the Where is the
Money? litigation,
questionable HUD deals, and the impact on the investment communityOctober 2003
and July 2004
U.S. "Could Be Going
Bankrupt"by
Edmund Conway, Economics EditorUK TelegraphJuly 2006
whereisthemoney.org Web site documenting the missing money -- includes
petition, FAQs, Who's Who ... also available in Spanish
Top Secret America: How
the DOD does it (Washington Post) Does what? Come On! You can’t take this
guy seriously. First, he’s military; what do you expect him to say. Second, he
talks of wars as if they always have to have one or be searching for one and we
all know they “find” them. Finally, he all but ignores what the underrated
President General Eisenhower warned of in the form of the unscrupulous,
insatiably greedy military/industrial complex which as colonel he but a very
small cog in who goes along to get along. The fact is also that they can’t be
managed and also that they don’t even try!
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘In light of this
development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Web Site Archived FLV Version
of Esoteric Agenda http://albertpeia.com/esotericagenda.flv
(Previously) I’d say this
alito vs. wobama is a tempest in a teapot inasmuch as alito is more than just a
lightweight, hack, liar, fraud etc., as set forth in the comments. alito is a
criminal who should have served / should be serving time in prison for
obstruction of justice, bribery, among other RICO violations. To alito, drug
money is as green as corporate money and worth his vote as well. In addition to
being an inept [I looked in on the one mob case he had brought, bungled, lost
(accidently on purpose?) since I was suing some mob-connected under RICO and
the court (I had known / previously met outside of court the judge Ackerman
through a client) was absolute bedlam and a total joke since incompetent
corrupt alito brought in all 20 mob defendants (rather than prosecute one or a
few to flip them first) who feigning illness had beds/cots in the courtroom
along with their moans during testimony and had the jury in stitches)] and
corrupt (see below and particularly the summary provided to the FBI under
penalty of perjury [
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
] ) u.s. attorney.
You’re naïve to think
that the so-called supreme court is any different from the rest of the
meaningfully lawless and pervasively corrupt american ‘system’. I knew well an
accomplished trial lawyer, fellow american college of trial lawyers / and a bar
examiner, who pondered from time to time becoming a judge “so he’d never have
to work again” – his words.
Some comments on
alito…all appropriate:
Probably the worst appointment in one
hundred years.
Posted by: mnjam
-----------------------
Really? That's a pretty sweeping
statement to make about someone who's only been on the court a short few years.
And I thought that liberals were in
universal agreement that Clarence Thomas was the worst appointment in all of
history?
Posted by: blert | January 28, 2010 2:11
AM | Report abuse
----------------------------
Yes. Really. Alito is a total lightweight and hack. He makes Thomas look like
John Marshall or Oliver Wendell Holmes. I KNOW ALITO.
Posted by: mnjam | January 28, 2010 2:24 AM |
the loser here is alito.lost his composure not good for a judge especially
afederal or supreme justice .loser big time this will live with guy for a very
time.roberts and the other justices will have a talk with him that is a
given.this relly larger than o one day news cycle.
Posted by: donaldtucker | January 28, 2010 1:12 AM |
Should Alito resign or be impeached?
Posted by: jdmca | January 28, 2010 1:05 AM |
I
include the first two comments to the foregoing headline:
Billo Says:
June 11th, 2010 at 6:15
am
Lunacy? Keep in mind
that this country is run and controlled by lunatics. Our press government and
military seem to take their orders from Israel. Isarel wants to be known as a
pack of “mad dogs. Do we want “mad dogs” controlling us?
Here we see a bunch of phony accusations against Iran just
like we did in the run up to the bogus wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and now
Pakistan. The boy has cried wold ten thousand times. It’s time to identify the
“lunatics” and kindly take away the car keys. If you won’t let your friends
drive drunk, why do we let a bunch of “lunatic” enemies run this place.
Glen Reply:
June 11th, 2010 at 6:47
am
Lunacy it would be.
But it is also to their
great credit that the Iranians have not made their own threats.
Everyone knows there are
3 WMD threats, Nuclear Biological and chemical. The scariest of which is
Biological.
Any attack done under
the threat of immediate biological retaliation would deter only the insane.
Watch out america home
of the insane, home of the leaders who want an 80% population reduction.
Mideast
Digest Israeli shelling kills 2 wounds 6 Gaza civilians: (Washington Post)
[War criminal israelis justified their attack saying when the 10 year
old girl grew up to be a woman she’d be prepared to fire rockets at them …
press on says fellow war criminal defacto bankrupt nation america] israeli shellfire killed two Palestinian freedom
fighters and wounded six people, including a 10-year-old girl, in the Gaza
Strip, Palestinian medical workers and an official with a militant group said.
An israeli military spokeswoman said soldiers opened fire on militants
suspected of preparing to fire a rocket at them.
A
Plague Upon The World: The USA is a “Failed State” Dr. Paul
Craig Roberts | The American people are lost in la-la land. They have
no idea that their civil liberties have been forfeited. US
citizen killed on flotilla reportedly shot four times in head Raw
Story | A forensic report said Furkan Dogan was shot at close range,
with four bullets in his head and one in his chest, according to the Anatolian
news agency. The explanation foisted off on the americans by war criminal
israelis is probably something on the order of ‘they just wanted to make sure
they missed him’. Roberts:
‘AIPAC purchases US elections’ Russia Today | Paul
Craig Roberts says that there will be nothing that is going to be done by the
United States to change the relationship with Israel.
‘US
funding terrorist group against Iran’ Press TV | A
member of a terrorist organization operating in Iran says that a US State
department radio station originally put him in touch with the group.
Paul
Craig Roberts: Government Abandoned Vietnam POWs Kurt Nimmo
| John McCain worked overtime to make sure Vietnam POWs never came home. I
think the even bigger story vis-à-vis mccain is: http://www.albertpeia.com/heroenot.htm
‘Did you know that that so-called "american heroe" john mccain was
referred to by his fellow pows in Vietnam as something akin to the
"songbird" inasmuch as he was constantly "singing" to his
Viet-Cong captors to curry favor and better treatment? This has been documented
with authority by Colonel David Hackworth. The same violates military
code/protocol (other soldiers have been court-martialed for far less) click Here, Here. [ http://www.albertpeia.com/hackworth.htm
] But, you see, this covered up scenario, compromizing the false facade
of far less than a heroe, is exactly what a criminal (lie of a) nation as
america loves and encourages (get everyone's hands dirty so no-one dares to
rectify same, ie., bush, sr., clinton, bush, jr.). That is, "toe the
(corrupt, propagandized) line", become a criminal, or be exposed,
prosecuted, and/or ruined; and, hasn't anyone asked how "wall street"
has been "spared the spotlight" (and even was accorded protective
legislation from their criminal culpability) and focus of inquiry, attention,
and prosecution despite being the primary beneficiaries financial and otherwise
of these scams (you know the wall street motto, "churn and earn";
huge conflicts of interest if not outright fraud)…’
Coalition wants UK space lift-off [ Don’t make me laugh! ]
Israel’s
Nukes Out of the Shadows Israel faces unprecedented pressure to
abandon its official policy of “ambiguity” on its possession of nuclear weapons
as the international community meets at the United Nations in New York this
week to consider banning such arsenals from the Middle East.
NASA wants mission to bring Martian rocks to Earth (AP) Why?
They already have that and more:
Launch
of secret US space ship masks even more secret launch of new weapon
http://www.albertpeia.com/UFOetryWeNeverWentToTheMoonPNTV.wmv
[To the
Professor at the beginning of the course]
10-5-09
Postscript: Professor *****,
I felt compelled to thank you again for the add; not to curry your favor but
indeed to express profound thanks inasmuch as this is probably the last formal
course at a formal educational institution I'll ever take; and among the most
important. While I had bought at discount a library-discarded 1993 Anthropology
by Embers text, though meaning to read same never quite got to it. I am
astounded by the substantial amount of time involved in the evolutionary
process, not that I ever stopped to think about it, and one must come away with
the sense of 'and all that...for this?'. This course should be required
curriculum along with psychology, sociology, etc., but probably won't be owing
to what is, as it should be, a very humbling educational experience for any
member of the human race.
Regards,
Al Peia
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
How
much is $1.4 trillion? | Doing
the math (Washington Post) Math?
How plebian a task on capital hill. I think the lack thereof is as much a lack
of aptitude / intelligence as it is a lack of will. And, this is a bi-partisan
foible. According to the Debt Clock (approx. two months ago):
• Total national debt: $13 trillion (near 13.3 now)
• Debt per citizen: $42,026
• Debt per taxpayer: $117,982
• Total interest due: $1.9 trillion
• Interest per citizen: $2,211
Click here to see the Debt Clock, which is updated every
second.
• Total personal debt: $16.5 trillion
• Total mortgage debt: $14.1 trillion
• Total consumer debt: $2.45 trillion
• Personal debt per citizen: $53,483
• Debt held by foreign countries: $4.07
trillion
Jobless
claims jump higher than expected (Washington Post) Sounds like a reason for a feel good rally on
fraudulent wall street, however ephemeral.
They
ensured financial regulation overhaul (Washington Post) What
overhaul? New bureaucracy, more power to the fed and corrupt incompetents as
tiny tim geithner (that $4 trillion’s still missing from the ny fed), no
recession helicopter ben bernanke, perps scot free and keep their loot, etc..
Real reform requires that the wall
street frauds et als be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement
imposed.
Existing-home
sales drop for second month (Washington Post) Bad economic news … what
better reason for a typically fraudulent suckers’ bear market, short-covering
rally for the high-frequency computerized churn-and-earn wall street frauds to
commission and ultimately sell into.
Go to following pages for
above links:
http://www.albertpeia.com/currentopics2ndqtr10108.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm
You may post a comment on my blog on any
topic: http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com
WASHPOST Ombudsman: Why
Silence on Black Panther Story? (Washington Post) ‘Thursday's Post reported about a growing
controversy over the Justice
Department's decision to scale down a voter-intimidation case against members
of the New Black Panther Party. The story succinctly summarized the issues
but left many readers with a question: What took you so long? For months,
readers have contacted the ombudsman wondering why The Post hasn't been covering
the case. The calls increased recently after competitors such as the New York
Times and the Associated Press wrote stories. Fox News and right-wing bloggers
have been pumping the story. Liberal bloggers have countered, accusing them of
trying to manufacture a scandal. But The Post has been virtually silent. The
story has its origins on Election Day in 2008, when two members of the New
Black Panther Party stood in front of a Philadelphia polling place. YouTube
video of the men, now viewed nearly 1.5 million times, shows both wearing
paramilitary clothing. One carried a nightstick…’
DRUDGEREPORT: Arab guilty of rape after
consensual sex with Jew... ‘An Israeli man of Arab origin has been convicted of rape after having
consensual sex with a woman who had believed him to be a fellow Jew. Sabbar
Kashur, 30, was sentenced to 18 months in prison on Monday after the court
ruled that he was guilty of rape by deception. According to the complaint filed
by the woman with the Jerusalem district court, the two met in downtown
Jerusalem in September 2008 where Kashur, an Arab from East Jerusalem,
introduced himself as a Jewish bachelor seeking a serious relationship. The two
then had consensual sex in a nearby building before Kashur left. When she later
found out that he was not Jewish but an Arab, she filed a criminal complaint
for rape and indecent assault …’
Mideast
Digest Israeli shelling kills 2 wounds 6 Gaza civilians: (Washington Post)
[War criminal israelis justified their attack saying when the 10 year
old girl grew up to be a woman she’d be prepared to fire rockets at them …
press on says fellow war criminal defacto bankrupt nation america] israeli shellfire killed two Palestinian freedom
fighters and wounded six people, including a 10-year-old girl, in the Gaza
Strip, Palestinian medical workers and an official with a militant group said.
An israeli military spokeswoman said soldiers opened fire on militants
suspected of preparing to fire a rocket at them.
The yardarm is the
remedy Dozens of our friends and comrades, of wonderful compassionate
activists are dead and wounded in the pirate attack in the high seas on
humanitarian aid boats. This is a dreadful crime that will forever be
remembered and should be punished. The Israeli pirates attacked the
humanitarian aid Freedom Flotilla in the international waters over 150 km out
of their territorial waters. The boats carried no arms; the participants
strictly adhered to Ghandian mode by asking the Greek and Cyprus authorities to
search the boats to avoid later claims that they were armed.
A
Plague Upon The World: The USA is a “Failed State” Dr. Paul
Craig Roberts | The American people are lost in la-la land. They have
no idea that their civil liberties have been forfeited. US
citizen killed on flotilla reportedly shot four times in head Raw
Story | A forensic report said Furkan Dogan was shot at close range,
with four bullets in his head and one in his chest, according to the Anatolian
news agency. The explanation foisted off on the americans by war criminal
israelis is probably something on the order of ‘they just wanted to make sure
they missed him’. Roberts:
‘AIPAC purchases US elections’ Russia Today | Paul
Craig Roberts says that there will be nothing that is going to be done by the
United States to change the relationship with Israel.
‘US
funding terrorist group against Iran’ Press TV | A member of a terrorist organization
operating in Iran says that a US State department radio station originally put
him in touch with the group.
Mideast
Digest Israeli shelling kills 2 wounds 6 Gaza civilians: (Washington Post)
[War criminal israelis justified their attack saying when the 10 year
old girl grew up to be a woman she’d be prepared to fire rockets at them … press
on says fellow war criminal defacto bankrupt nation america] israeli shellfire killed two Palestinian freedom
fighters and wounded six people, including a 10-year-old girl, in the Gaza
Strip, Palestinian medical workers and an official with a militant group said.
An israeli military spokeswoman said soldiers opened fire on militants
suspected of preparing to fire a rocket at them.
Top Secret America: How
the DOD does it (Washington Post) Does what? Come On! You can’t take this
guy seriously. First, he’s military; what do you expect him to say. Second, he
talks of wars as if they always have to have one or be searching for one and we
all know they “find” them. Finally, he all but ignores what the underrated
President General Eisenhower warned of in the form of the unscrupulous,
insatiably greedy military/industrial complex which as colonel he but a very
small cog in who goes along to get along. The fact is also that they can’t be
managed and also that they don’t even try!
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘In light of this
development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Web Site Archived FLV Version
of Esoteric Agenda http://albertpeia.com/esotericagenda.flv
(Previously) I’d say this
alito vs. wobama is a tempest in a teapot inasmuch as alito is more than just a
lightweight, hack, liar, fraud etc., as set forth in the comments. alito is a
criminal who should have served / should be serving time in prison for
obstruction of justice, bribery, among other RICO violations. To alito, drug
money is as green as corporate money and worth his vote as well. In addition to
being an inept [I looked in on the one mob case he had brought, bungled, lost
(accidently on purpose?) since I was suing some mob-connected under RICO and
the court (I had known / previously met outside of court the judge Ackerman
through a client) was absolute bedlam and a total joke since incompetent
corrupt alito brought in all 20 mob defendants (rather than prosecute one or a
few to flip them first) who feigning illness had beds/cots in the courtroom
along with their moans during testimony and had the jury in stitches)] and
corrupt (see below and particularly the summary provided to the FBI under
penalty of perjury [
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
] ) u.s. attorney.
You’re naïve to think
that the so-called supreme court is any different from the rest of the
meaningfully lawless and pervasively corrupt american ‘system’. I knew well an
accomplished trial lawyer, fellow american college of trial lawyers / and a bar
examiner, who pondered from time to time becoming a judge “so he’d never have
to work again” – his words.
Some comments on
alito…all appropriate:
Probably the worst appointment in one
hundred years.
Posted by: mnjam
-----------------------
Really? That's a pretty sweeping
statement to make about someone who's only been on the court a short few years.
And I thought that liberals were in
universal agreement that Clarence Thomas was the worst appointment in all of
history?
Posted by: blert | January 28, 2010 2:11
AM | Report abuse
----------------------------
Yes. Really. Alito is a total lightweight and hack. He makes Thomas look like
John Marshall or Oliver Wendell Holmes. I KNOW ALITO.
Posted by: mnjam | January 28, 2010 2:24 AM |
the loser here is alito.lost his composure not good for a judge especially
afederal or supreme justice .loser big time this will live with guy for a very
time.roberts and the other justices will have a talk with him that is a
given.this relly larger than o one day news cycle.
Posted by: donaldtucker | January 28, 2010 1:12 AM |
Should Alito resign or be impeached?
Posted by: jdmca | January 28, 2010 1:05 AM |
I
include the first two comments to the foregoing headline:
Billo Says:
June 11th, 2010 at 6:15
am
Lunacy? Keep in mind
that this country is run and controlled by lunatics. Our press government and
military seem to take their orders from Israel. Isarel wants to be known as a
pack of “mad dogs. Do we want “mad dogs” controlling us?
Here we see a bunch of phony accusations against Iran just
like we did in the run up to the bogus wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and now
Pakistan. The boy has cried wold ten thousand times. It’s time to identify the
“lunatics” and kindly take away the car keys. If you won’t let your friends
drive drunk, why do we let a bunch of “lunatic” enemies run this place.
Glen Reply:
June 11th, 2010 at 6:47
am
Lunacy it would be.
But it is also to their
great credit that the Iranians have not made their own threats.
Everyone knows there are
3 WMD threats, Nuclear Biological and chemical. The scariest of which is
Biological.
Any attack done under
the threat of immediate biological retaliation would deter only the insane.
Watch out america home
of the insane, home of the leaders who want an 80% population reduction.
Corrupt
u.s. courts / judges: Their lifetime plush appointments should be abolished,
which corrupt entities are unheard of in productive societies as China, Japan,
etc.. Time to abolish these drags on society and eliminate their lifetime
stipends and corrupt costly bureaucracies.
Paul
Craig Roberts: Government Abandoned Vietnam POWs Kurt Nimmo
| John McCain worked overtime to make sure Vietnam POWs never came home. I
think the even bigger story vis-à-vis mccain is: http://www.albertpeia.com/heroenot.htm
‘Did you know that that so-called "american heroe" john mccain was
referred to by his fellow pows in Vietnam as something akin to the
"songbird" inasmuch as he was constantly "singing" to his
Viet-Cong captors to curry favor and better treatment? This has been documented
with authority by Colonel David Hackworth. The same violates military
code/protocol (other soldiers have been court-martialed for far less) click Here, Here. [ http://www.albertpeia.com/hackworth.htm
] But, you see, this covered up scenario, compromizing the false facade
of far less than a heroe, is exactly what a criminal (lie of a) nation as
america loves and encourages (get everyone's hands dirty so no-one dares to
rectify same, ie., bush, sr., clinton, bush, jr.). That is, "toe the
(corrupt, propagandized) line", become a criminal, or be exposed,
prosecuted, and/or ruined; and, hasn't anyone asked how "wall street"
has been "spared the spotlight" (and even was accorded protective
legislation from their criminal culpability) and focus of inquiry, attention,
and prosecution despite being the primary beneficiaries financial and otherwise
of these scams (you know the wall street motto, "churn and earn";
huge conflicts of interest if not outright fraud)…’
Coalition wants UK space lift-off [ Don’t make me laugh! ]
Israel’s
Nukes Out of the Shadows Israel faces unprecedented pressure to
abandon its official policy of “ambiguity” on its possession of nuclear weapons
as the international community meets at the United Nations in New York this
week to consider banning such arsenals from the Middle East.
NASA wants mission to bring Martian rocks to Earth (AP) Why?
They already have that and more:
Launch
of secret US space ship masks even more secret launch of new weapon
http://www.albertpeia.com/UFOetryWeNeverWentToTheMoonPNTV.wmv
[To the
Professor at the beginning of the course]
10-5-09
Postscript: Professor *****,
I felt compelled to thank you again for the add; not to curry your favor but
indeed to express profound thanks inasmuch as this is probably the last formal
course at a formal educational institution I'll ever take; and among the most
important. While I had bought at discount a library-discarded 1993 Anthropology
by Embers text, though meaning to read same never quite got to it. I am
astounded by the substantial amount of time involved in the evolutionary
process, not that I ever stopped to think about it, and one must come away with
the sense of 'and all that...for this?'. This course should be required
curriculum along with psychology, sociology, etc., but probably won't be owing
to what is, as it should be, a very humbling educational experience for any
member of the human race.
Regards,
Al Peia
Go to following
pages for above links:
http://www.albertpeia.com/currentopics2ndqtr10108.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm
You may post a comment on my blog on any topic: http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com
Mideast DIGEST (Washington
Post, July 19, 2010) netanayahu
admits on video he deceived US to destroy Oslo accord The contents of a
secretly recorded video threaten to gravely embarrass not only Benjamin
netanayahu, the Israeli prime minister but also the US administration of Barack
Obama.
22
Statistics That Prove The Middle Class Is Being Systematically Wiped Out Of
Existence In America The 22
statistics that you are about to read prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that the
middle class is being systematically wiped out of existence in America.
Congress
Passes Bankster Consolidation Bill Kurt
Nimmo | Financial reform is a three-card Monte scam, a confidence
game, a sleight of hand.
Wall
Street Is Laundering Drug Money And Getting Away With It
They still know how to
count. When you defraud for many billions, paying $550 million is chump change.
Goldman
to pay $550M to settle civil fraud charges (AP) Late stock rally
ahead of Goldman settlement news And the beat goes on!
Goldman Sachs beats the SEC– ‘Can Goldman Sachs Group Inc. wheel and deal or
what? The bank and brokerage's settlement with the Securities and Exchange
Commission on Thursday over the ill-fated Abacus deal may be its best trade
ever. At $550 million, it's not terribly
expensive. (GS 152.19, +6.97, +4.80%) hasn't agreed to restrict its practices
in any meaningful way. And poof! The firm can go back to work with its biggest
liability paid. Investors are ecstatic, Goldman shares rocketed 5.5% in
after-hours trading. No wonder Goldman called it "the right outcome for
our firm shareholders and clients." See
full story on the SEC settlement. For the regulators, the settlement is
more than just anticlimactic. Having bet all of its chips on reversing
embarrassing episodes such as the Bernie Madoff fiasco in an aggressive case
against Wall Street, the SEC whiffed.
Sure, the settlement is the biggest in the agency's history. Yes, the
SEC was able to squeeze Goldman on the settlement language and admit it was a
"mistake" not to have disclosed Paulson & Co.'s role in picking
the ill-fated securities. But come on. Goldman's net income last year was $12.1
billion. It could be even higher this year, given the robust first quarter
Goldman already has had. The settlement amounts to less than 5% of profits.
Maybe Goldman Sachs will even be able to write it off …’
‘This is
a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The
past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This
has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with
great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell
into.’
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a
Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012
Exports
are up, but where are the jobs? (Washington Post) Gone with the wind?
Sorry, I must have been thinking of million dollar movies. Seriously though, I
dare say everyone knows they were gone with that ‘bi-partisan executive /
congressional, think-tank, cia / nsa ill wind’ that others might refer to as
flatulence / passing gas, also called NAFTA, and also proudly hailed by the
foregoing as ‘strategy’. They’re gone, and never to return. Moreover, the
flipside of the exports, viz., imports, doesn’t bode well despite the fraudulent
wall street b*** s*** and their chorus of cheerleaders in washington. Some
might say self-delusion but I would say fraud covers all.
Companies
pile up cash but still won't add jobs (Washington Post) Unlike the public sector (which now exceeds private
sector in job gains and average compensation), the private sector attempts to
mesh hiring with economic supply / demand factors to maximize (shareholder) profits / wealth. Whatever
faults american companies have, with relatively few exceptions, this still
remains a very basic fundamental and building surplus (generating profits) is a
necessary precept to ensure survival and the capacity to be a good ‘citizen’ so
to speak. Then there’s reality:
Retail
sales down for 2nd consecutive month (Washington Post) Another ‘Come on’ day on fraudulent wall street! This
time it’s the unexpected downward revision to previous market-frothing retail
sales report and poor retail sales and plunge in mortgage applications and then
there’s the fed minutes pointing to extended bad economy. See Dave Fry’s (Daily)
summary below referencing in euphemistic fashion, yet another ongoing
manipulation also known as fraud. (Absent prosecutions, they’ll continue to do
what comes natural to frauds on wall street). Great opportunity to sell / take
profits since much worse, also called reality beyond the b*** s***, to come.
Then there’s also the bad but typical news; viz., retail sales, mortgage apps, economic outlook down, and yesterday
deficits, trade and budget, up.
NATION NEWS DIGEST: J.P. Morgan Chase
posts $4.8 billion profit (Washington Post) Yet another ‘Come on’ day on fraudulent wall street! This
time it’s the unexpected jump in continuing claims for unemployment, yesterday
the downward revision to previous market-frothing retail sales report and poor
retail sales and plunge in mortgage applications and then there’s the fed
minutes pointing to extended bad economy. Then there’s also now the ‘goldfinger
factor’ as in goldman’s middle finger. When you defraud for many billions, paying $550 million is
chump change. Goldman shares rocketed 5.5% in after-hours trading. No wonder
Goldman called it "the right outcome for our firm shareholders and
clients." (Absent
prosecutions, they’ll continue to do what comes natural to frauds on wall
street). Great opportunity to sell / take profits since much worse, also called
reality beyond the b*** s***, to come. Then there’s also the bad but typical
news; viz., previous retail sales, mortgage apps, economic outlook down, and
continuing claims for unemployment, deficits, trade / budget, up. (Just in:
7-16-10 Poll – only 43% of Americans approve of the Afganistan War, down from
52% in January, 2010)
Pearlstein: Can
regulation beget innovation? (Washington Post) I believe the more seminal question to be,
whether american companies, consistent with overall american decline and
corruption in so pervasive a fashion, are capable of or inclined toward real
innovation where enhancements to productivity, as well as greater profits, is
the consequence as desired. Certainly there has been ‘innovation’ by the wall
street frauds in the types of (ultimately worthless / fraudulent) paper and
high frequency trade programs enhancing their bottom-lines but little else;
and, those cutting edge ‘weapons of mass destruction’ produced or financed
(israel) by america are hardly productive in the economic sense but innovative
and profitable in the short run, and unwise and nation-bankrupting in the
longer run which we’re in right now!
Ex-Justice
official: CIA may have exceeded limits (Washington
Post) Wee doggies! This sounds like the
stuff that SNL Weekend Update ‘Really’ skits are made of; also fitting into
that list of queries as, ‘Is the Pope Catholic?’, ‘Do bears **** in the
woods?’, etc.. Come on! Wake up! This
is the kind of complicit cover-up / corruption found betwixt and between all
three branches of the u.s. government leading ineluctably to america’s current
decline and to which I’ve attested under penalty of perjury in the context of
the RICO litigation [ http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
].
Go to following pages for
above links:
http://www.albertpeia.com/currentopics2ndqtr10108.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm
You may post a comment on my
blog on any topic: http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com
For
now, spew of oil into Gulf of Mexico is halted (Washington Post) Well, thank God for small favors! I suggest they change that
name, ‘integrity test’; that’s doomed to end in failure. Yes, the brits are
back. They’ve clogged the well, with help from the ‘usual suspects’, the
americans. What precision! What teamwork!
Victory at last … riiiiight!
Then there is the well researched,
produced, and informative ‘ESOTERIC AGENDA’ which explains how we’ve gotten to
this forlorn point: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7052400717834950257#
Pentagon
warns Congress: Accounts running dry...(Drudgereport) Isn’t this headline
eerily reminiscent of that seminal B film by Roger Corman for Jack Nicholson,
‘Little Shop of Horrors’ (and remake) wherein a murderous vegetable / plant
clamors incessantly and insatiably, ‘feed me’. Eight U.S. service members killed in series
of attacks in southern Afghanistan (Washington Post, July 15,
2010) . This ridiculous war apparently for the sake of the american sponsored
reinvigorated heroin trade was a bad idea ab initio even if america wasn’t
defacto bankrupt.
‘This is
a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The
past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This
has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with
great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell
into.’
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a
Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012
Exports
are up, but where are the jobs? (Washington Post) Gone with the wind?
Sorry, I must have been thinking of million dollar movies. Seriously though, I
dare say everyone knows they were gone with that ‘bi-partisan executive /
congressional, think-tank, cia / nsa ill wind’ that others might refer to as
flatulence / passing gas, also called NAFTA, and also proudly hailed by the
foregoing as ‘strategy’. They’re gone, and never to return. Moreover, the
flipside of the exports, viz., imports, doesn’t bode well despite the
fraudulent wall street b*** s*** and their chorus of cheerleaders in
washington. Some might say self-delusion but I would say fraud covers all.
Companies
pile up cash but still won't add jobs (Washington Post) Unlike the public sector (which now exceeds private
sector in job gains and average compensation), the private sector attempts to
mesh hiring with economic supply / demand factors to maximize (shareholder) profits / wealth. Whatever
faults american companies have, with relatively few exceptions, this still
remains a very basic fundamental and building surplus (generating profits) is a
necessary precept to ensure survival and the capacity to be a good ‘citizen’ so
to speak. Then there’s reality:
Retail
sales down for 2nd consecutive month (Washington Post) Another ‘Come on’ day on fraudulent wall street! This
time it’s the unexpected downward revision to previous market-frothing retail
sales report and poor retail sales and plunge in mortgage applications and then
there’s the fed minutes pointing to extended bad economy. See Dave Fry’s
(Daily) summary below referencing in euphemistic fashion, yet another ongoing
manipulation also known as fraud. (Absent prosecutions, they’ll continue to do
what comes natural to frauds on wall street). Great opportunity to sell / take
profits since much worse, also called reality beyond the b*** s***, to come.
Then there’s also the bad but typical news; viz., retail sales, mortgage apps, economic outlook down, and yesterday
deficits, trade and budget, up.
WHICH WAY IS THE MARKET GOING NEXT? Gomes: ‘Having been a technical analyst for the first 10 years of my
investing career and a fundamental analyst for the past 15 years, I'm a
believer that technical patterns form as fundamentals unfold. As such, if you
know something about both, you can confirm both against each other. At this
point in time, I see a market that is technically reaching up toward its 200
day moving average (2,250 for the NASDAQ). I also see a 50 day moving average
that is threatening to drop below that 200 day moving average. Technically,
that is usually a very bad sign for the market. …
1) Economic indicators are dropping fast. For all intents and purposes, the
unemployment rate has not budged. Meanwhile, store shelves are stocked again,
PCs have been upgraded, etc. In other words, the pent-up demand that drove the
current rebound has almost run its course. What little remains no longer has
the power to drive the economy as it has over the past 18-months.
2)
"Follow the money". This is one of the most powerfully simple rules
on Wall Street. When money is flowing into the economy (i.e. via lower interest
rates or stimulus $$$), it's usually good for stocks..and vice versa. At
present, interest rates can't go much lower and the numerous stimulus programs
are losing effectiveness. This means that the money is no longer flowing in.
Worse yet, the money that was spent is not generally viewed as having been
money well spent. This does not bode well for a new stimulus package to come
anytime soon. In other words, money is not flowing in AND doesn't appear poised
to flow in anytime soon. In fact, state and municipal budgets are being cut
(money flowing OUT), while they raise local sales and income taxes (more money
flowing out). if federal taxes go up in 2011, as planned, even more money will
be flowing out. If you follow that, you should be flowing out of the stock
market. In short, barring a new stimulus package of other major money-flowing
event, I believe the economy slips back toward recession. Whether or not we
double-dip, we will almost certainty slip in that direction.
3)
If you follow the money in Europe, you will run for the hills. Europe has
decided to spin 180-degrees and shift from stimulus to austerity (if you don't
know the definition, look it up -- you'll likely hear it again -- and not just
from me). Effectively the opposite of stimulus, austerity will pull money away
from the European economies...which tells us to pull money away from stocks.
Worse yet, the effect of the EU/IMF bailout is already wearing off. Greek
yields are rising again and Portuguese credit ratings have been reduced.
4)
Global bubbles are bursting. Most notably, home sales in China and Canada are
starting to fall. Remember what happened when the U.S. housing market cracked?
That's right -- that's what started this mess in the first place.
5)
Politically, this period in time has a tendency to be bad for stocks. There is
uncertainty around the mid-year elections...and the market hates uncertainty.
Historically, the political picture doesn't become clear until October, at
which point we might expect a rally. Until then, expect the democrats to do
everything they can to retain their jobs in November. That means, "stop
pissing off the public"...and the public seems pretty pissed about how the
stimulus $$$ worked out for them (or more accurately, how it DIDN'T work out
for them). Thus, the political pressure will lean against further stimulus
until after the elections.
The
Bottom Line: I believe that the market will start to reflect these concerns
very soon. These are real fundamental concerns, which you can see reflected in
the technicals. As the market reaches the 50DMA and the 200DMA, it will be
inclined to retreat (barring some new, hugely positive news). Meanwhile, the
50DMA is 90%+ likely to cross below the 200DMA, giving the market more reason
to retrench. At some point, if the economy sinks far enough and if the market
drops far enough, political pressure for more stimulus will mount. At that
point, money will flow back into the economy. But that time is not now. Now,
money is flowing away like the tide...and so should your invested capital. I'm
not always right, but I do my best, based on the information before me. Based
on what I see right now, the most logical conclusion is to expect a long, ugly
summer for stocks. If I see information that changes that view, I'll be sure to
post an update to this post. Disclosure: I have short positions against the
market
No
help in sight for jobless (Washington Post) Well, from their perspective, they
really don’t feel your pain, and, it gives the frauds on wall street another
b*** s***, market frothing, false talking point in the form of ‘fewer
continuing claims for unemployment’. Then there’s that ‘ depression thing’.
The
big crash — America plunges into Depression Alexander
Cockburn
‘This is a global
depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up
move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has
been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with
great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell
into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn, pass the hot potato scam /
fraud as in prior crashes.’
Making
millions from mowing lawns [Sounds like a plan … riiiiight!]
(Washington Post) Value Added | Entrepreneur's reinvestment and diversification
… By Thomas Heath For the less entrepreneurial at heart
there’s always … flippin’ burgers … Washington,
D.C.: the nation's (burger) capital? (Washington Post) | ‘The Washington
area has emerged as fertile ground for ground chuck …’ Survey:
A satisfied federal workforce (Washington Post) Indeed they should be since
they’re totally expendable and a waste of taxpayer money.
Return of the No-Volume Melt-Up
Momentum Book Update: Trend Indicators Still Pointing Negative
Employment Picture Is Getting Bleaker
The Debt Party Is Over ‘… In a Ponzi scheme, the end comes
when the marginal investor decides to do something else with his money. Then
the house of cards stars falling apart. …’
DRUDGEREPORT: BOMBSHELL: Media Mogul Mort
Zuckerman Admits He Wrote One Of Obama's Speeches...
Were White House Officials Ready to Expose Collaboration?
Zuckerman Now: Obama Barely
Treading Water...
MICHELLE TELLS BLACKS TO 'INCREASE INTENSITY'
6 troops killed in Afghanistan...
DEM GOVS WARN: OBAMA SUIT VS. AZ IS 'TOXIC'
Debt panel has gloomy outlook...
Crisis Awaits World’s Banks as Trillions Come
Due...
G20 looks to Beijing to drive global growth …
They’re dreamin’! ...
They say ‘stocks oversold’. Preposterous!
Stocks have been overbought based on bad news or nothing at all, rallying on
‘not as bad as expected’. Even if that were true (I don’t believe anything they
say), who cares what the criminally insane frauds on wall street say what they
expect. It’s fundamentals, economic and financial, that ultimately count; but,
in the meantime, they’re like termites eating away at the nation’s foundation
with lightning fast computerized trade programs, all of which excessively huge
commission churn / earn revenues are a net negative for the economy in real
economic terms which is evidenced by unprecedented economic decline in all
productive sectors of the economy. This is a great opportunity to SELL / TAKE
PROFITS since this suckers rally to suck suckers in and keep them sucked in is
based on fraud and b*** s*** alone
and: ‘This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a
global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a
secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes.’
Technical Indicators Trigger Major
Sell Signal ‘…In summary, the bearish picture is confirmed by technical
indicators, a fundamental outlook, sentiment gauges, and valuations.Based on
what the market considered fair market valuations at prior historic market
bottoms, one can conclude how far stocks have to drop to reach the previously
attained level of fair valuations …’
: ‘On Friday July 9, 2010,
4:32 pm EDT It rarely ever happens, but when it does, it's serious. It
has only happened nine times in 10 years. We are referring to crossovers
between the 200-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs).Very few technical
indicators receive as much attention and media coverage as the 50 and 200-day
SMAs. The 200-day MA is perceived to be the dividing line between a stock that
is technically healthy and one that is not. It's a Big
Deal It's a big deal when a stock or an index drops
below the 200-day SMA. It's an even bigger deal when the 50-day SMA of any
given stock or index drops below the 200-day SMA. Such a crossover reflects
internal weakness - at least in theory. We'll discuss in a moment how the
actual numbers match up with theoretic assumptions. On June 22, 2010, the
S&P 500 (SNP: ^GSPC) and Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI) dropped below the 200-day
SMA. One day later the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) followed. On July 2, 2010, the
50-day SMA for the S&P (NYSEArca: SPY
- News)
dropped below the 200-day SMA. On July 6, the Dow Jones (NYSEArca: DIA
- News)
followed. As of today, the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: QQQQ
- News)
is barely hanging on. This sounds like a doomsday scenario. Does a rigid
analysis show that there is validity to 200-day and 50-day SMA crossover
buy/sell signals? Let's investigate.Crossovers - Lagging but Notable Many argue that
the SMA crossover is a delayed signal that emphasizes past weakness more than
it foreshadows future declines. To an extent, that is true. There are other
warning signals that point to a market turn long before the SMA does. For
example, on April 16, 2010, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted an
extremely low put/call ratio along with other bullish sentiment extremes. The
newsletter stated that 'the message conveyed by the composite bullishness is
unmistakably bearish. Once prices start to fall and investors get afraid of
incurring losses, the only option is to sell (due to the low put/call ratio).
Selling, results in more selling. This negative feedback loop usually results
in rapidly falling prices.' Prices did fall rapidly. The 22 trading days
following the April 26 high, erased eight months worth of gains. It took a 17%
drop for the SMA crossover to trigger a sell signal. When the ETF Profit
Strategy Newsletter issued a strong buy signal on March 2, 2009, it emphasized
that the developing rally would be a counter trend rally followed by a steep
decline and maintained this viewpoint even though prices kept rallying
relentlessly into the April highs. The SMA crossover now expresses the
possibility that even lower prices are ahead. 200 and
50-day SMA Crossovers - How Accurate? How about the
SMA crossover track record? Over the past 10 years, there have been nine
S&P SMA crossovers with five sell and four buy signals. We have yet to see
the results of the most recent sell signal. However, of the eight previous
signals, six were correct. Average gains following each signal were 14.91%.
$10,000 invested according to the buy/sell recommendations given right after
the first sell signal was triggered on October 30, 2000 at S&P 1,399, would
be worth $24,769 today. More Than just Crossovers If it sounds
too good to be true, it often is. As is the case with so many technical
indicators, crossovers need to be viewed in context with other indicators. In
other words, take a step back and evaluate how crossovers fit into the larger
picture. The larger picture (going back to 2007) reveals that trading volume
associated with market declines has been generally high, while trading volume
seen during rallies has been generally low; a bearish sign. Does
Wednesday's 3.13% Rally Invalidate the Sell Signal? On Wednesday,
the S&P rallied 32 points or 3.13%. The Dow rallied 2.82%, while the Nasdaq
rallied 3.13%. Does this mean the bull market is back on track?Since the
April market top, we've seen about a handful of 2-3% bounces. All associated
gains were erased within a matter of days. Chances are this time will be the
same. In fact, some sort of bounce was to be expected. On July 5, the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter stated 'considering that the S&P is butting
against the 100-week SMA, lower accelerations band, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
levels, round number resistance at 1,000, and weekly s1 at 994, there is a good
chance we will see some sort of a bounce develop from the 990 - 1,015 area.
Weekly r1 at 1,066 and pivot at 1,063 should serve as resistance.' This bounce
is in its later stages right now. What's Next? Let's revisit
the larger picture. Out of the nine leading industry sectors, seven have seen
their 50-day SMA cross below the 200-day SMA - financials (NYSEArca: XLF
- News),
technology (NYSEArca: XLK - News),
consumer staples (NYSEArca: XLP - News),
materials (NYSEArca: XLB - News),
utilities (NYSEArca: XLU - News),
energy (NYSEArca: XLE - News)
and healthcare (NYSEArca: XLV - News).
The consumer discretionary (NYSEArca: XLY
- News)
and industrial sector (NYSEArca: XLI - News)
are the only holdouts. All nine sectors, however, trade below their 200-day
SMA. Fundamentals, sentiment readings and valuations also point south. Some of
the fundamentals we have discussed in these pages are crafty accounting practices
designed to hide huge losses racked up by big financial institutions not yet
realized along with a continually bad unemployment picture. Sentiment
surrounding the April highs recorded extremes not seen since the 2000, 2007,
and even 1987 market top. There are multiple sentiment measures (such as the
VIX, cash allocation, put/call ratio, percentage of bullish/bearish advisors,
mutual fund cash levels, etc.). Each sentiment measure is one piece of
the puzzle. The more pieces of the puzzle you have, the clearer the picture
becomes. Leading up to the April highs, nearly all sentiment indicators peaked,
painting a complete bearish picture. In summary, the bearish picture is
confirmed by technical indicators, a fundamental outlook, sentiment gauges, and
valuations. Based on what the market considered fair market valuations at prior
historic market bottoms, one can conclude how far stocks have to drop to reach
the previously attained level of fair valuations. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
includes a detailed analysis of four valuation metrics with a track record of
accuracy, along with the implied target range for an ultimate market bottom.
This is provided in addition to its short, mid and long-term forecast. When the
market speaks, it behooves investors to listen. Fighting the tape has often
proven to be foolish, as the market will always have the final word.’
A
Market Forecast That Says ‘Take Cover’ New York Times
| We have entered a market decline of staggering proportions — perhaps the
biggest of the last 300 years.
Commercial Real Estate Loans Extend
and Pretend ‘…Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Commercial Real Estate Loans – Extend and Pretend Community banks have commercial real estate
loans where the borrower cannot make scheduled interest and principle payments.
More than 50% of all FDIC-insured institutions have loan pipelines that are 80%
to 100% funded. This is a measure of how banks are stuck with noncurrent
assets, but they are not classified that way. Instead, community banks are
giving borrowers more time to make their payments on the theory that it’s better to collect zero on some loans rather than
owning the real estate that collateralizes those loans. This concept is dubbed
“extend and pretend” hoping that the borrower will
eventual pay the loan back. Banks in this practice are known as “Zombie Banks” as
they can’t
lend, can’t lure in new investors, and wait for the FDIC to knock
on their doors on Friday afternoon. This strategy includes stretching out loan
maturities and allowing below-market interest rates to slow the number of
defaults and preserving the capital of banks that would be expended if property
had to become “Other Real Estate Owned.” As a result “Loans 30 to 89 Days in Arrears” and “Noncurrent”
loans are not growing as fast as they should be. The net result of these
practices masks the true toxicity of the Commercial Real Estate market. It’s not just the small banks that
are employing “extend and pretend”
tactics. I read that the Bank of America (BAC) has extended a large real estate loan in
Buckhead, Georgia the high-class area north of Atlanta. The loan finances the
development of a high-end shopping and residential project in 2007 and now
three years later the cranes are silent and the project is fenced in. The
banking regulators are helping the banks by allowing the lenders several ways
to restructure loans. While doing so the banks are allowed to keep these loans
as “performing” even with collateral values below the loan
amounts. Extend and pretend is also known as kicking the can down the road. It
seems to me that we have wasted billions if not trillions in stimulus money and
bank bailouts when this money could have been used to actually fund the
completion of these projects. Such a plan would have cost tax payers much less
and would have kept Americans working on Main Street USA, as finishing
incompleted real estate projects are clearly “shovel ready” projects.
According to Foresight Analytics banks hold $176 billion of CRE loans that
could be declared toxic. This is the tip of the iceberg as the FDIC Quarterly
Banking Profile shows $1.09 trillion in nonfarm nonresidential real estate
loans and $418 billion in Construction & Development loans on the books of
our nation’s banks. About two-thirds of
the CRE loans are maturing between now and 2014, and are underwater. Commercial
real estate property values are down 42% from the October 2007 peak. At the end
of the first quarter 9.1% are delinquent up from 7% a year earlier. Bankers
justify “extend and pretend” saying
that it’s better than calling the loan and dumping more property
on a depressed market. We need a stronger economy to entice new investors to
resurrect projects and to find new demand for competed offices, hotels, condos
etc which are the finished products of completed CRE projects. Without a strong
economic recovery these loans will eventually have to be written off down the
road. The problem is that while these loans are on hold banks can’t justify new
loans, which would be the engine of economic growth. And the beat goes on. Disclosure:
No positions’
Light Volume Temptations: Dave's Daily ‘Volume still matters, doesn't it?
It seems not as the financial media ignores our light volume market in favor of
writing bullish headlines. With hedge funds mostly sidelined according to
reports posted here yesterday, the primary buyers must be trading desks on Wall
Street and a handful of algo traders. It's tempting to come off the sidelines
and join the fun but perhaps it's just the trap they're laying for you. A
headline at Reuters read this afternoon: "Weaker Economic Views Equals
Stronger 3-Year Note Sale". So, if equity markets are forward-looking one
must wonder what these few buyers are seeing beyond a short-term trade.
Headline writers say its strong earnings growth that will prop markets coupled
with rosy outlooks. That would have to be the case otherwise this is just a
sucker's rally. As stated, volume was holiday-like light (40% below average)
making it really easy for the machines to take over trading, and so they did
... ‘
DRUDGEREPORT:
Evans-Pritchard:
It's Really Starting to Feel Like 1932 [Depression] ...
Dow Repeats Great Depression
Pattern...
Investors
fear risk of regional defaults...
Obama:
'The great jobs killer'...
Turkey, a leader
of nations, wants war criminal israel apology, israel rejects demand ...
Inventory Cycle Has Run Its Course Harrison – ‘… This is the scenario I have been predicting for
months now.
David Rosenberg says the
ISM leads jobs. And, the latest jobs
numbers were weak.
I would be nonplused about the recent ISM data if it
weren’t for the column highlighted in red. Notice how the momentum for
everything is slowing. Not just the overall index, but new orders, production
and employment …’
DRUDGEREPORT: TORN
ON FOURTH OF JULY: OBAMA DIVIDES NATION...
Great
Republic in parlous state -- politically, economically...
YEAR
9: Petraeus in Afghanistan warns of tough mission...
'We are in this
to win' … Win what? The fact of america’s defacto bankruptcy and being there IS
failure no matter what they ultimately call this debacle ...
Illinois
Stops Paying Its Bills...
Facing
'outright disaster' amid budget crisis...
Turn On, Tune In...Nah, Just Drop Out … Discouraged workers at a new
cycle high And small wonder. The median unemployment duration went to a new
all-time high (since the 1940s, anyway, when that series begins) and shows no
signs of slowing its ascent …
(Chart, source Bloomberg)…
NY
Times’ Krugman: We Are Entering The Third Depression Recessions are
common; depressions are rare. [Correction: we’re already in a depression].
JUNE UNEMPLOYMENT 9.5%... 125,000 JOBS
LOST...
Rate
dips as 652,000 give up search...
Depressing...
[That’s why they’re called depressions (just kidding … but no laughing matter)
… At this rate, with all those lost jobs and jobseekers no longer seeking
those lost jobs that aren’t there, by their calculations (9.5% the bright spot
… riiiiight!) we should be at full employment very soon … you can’t make this
stuff up … really!].
Ron
Paul: 114 Flip Flop on Audit The Fed Causing Bill to Fail 229 – 198 Ron
Paul’s attempt to audit the Federal Reserve, which was previously co-sponsored
by 320 members of the House (HR 1207), failed by a vote of 229-198. All
Republicans voted in favor of the measure with 23 Democrats crossing the aisle
to vote with Republicans. 122 co-sponsors of HR 1207, all Democrats, jumped
ship and voted against the measure. The Future of Audit the
Fed Congressman Ron Paul discusses the latest in the efforts to get a
full and complete audit of the Fed as well as the future of Fed transparency.
Like Congressman Paul says, we’ve accomplished a lot of good with our movement,
and there’s many reasons to be optimistic for the
future. Ditch
the Buck! Dollar demise ‘a matter of months’ A report by the United
Nations says the American dollar should be ditched as the main global reserve
currency. It said that the global financial meltdown has exposed systematic
weaknesses, one of which is the reliance on the
greenback. G-20
is Relying on China To Drive the World Economy … But China Isn’t Looking So Hot
The G-20 is apparently relying on China to drive the world economy.
Middle
class families face a triple whammy Edmund Conway |
Falling pensions, cuts and the banking crisis will impoverish many families.
The following are 50 random facts that show
just how dramatically america has changed….
#50) A new report released by the United
Nations is publicly calling for the establishment of a world
currency and none of the major news networks are even
covering it.
#49) Arnold Schwarzenegger has ordered California
State Controller John Chiang to reduce state worker pay for July to the federal
minimum allowed by law — $7.25 an hour for most
state workers.
#48) A police officer in Oklahoma recently tasered an 86-year-old disabled grandma in her bed
and stepped on her oxygen hose until she couldn’t breathe because they
considered her to be a “threat”.
#47) In early 2009, U.S. net national savings as a
percentage of GDP went negative for the first time since 1952,
and it has continued its downward trend since then.
#46) Corexit 9500 is so incredibly toxic that the
UK’s Marine Management Organization has completely banned it, so if there
was a major oil spill in the North Sea, BP would not be able to use it.
And yet BP has dumped over a million gallons of dispersants such as Corexit
9500 into the Gulf of Mexico.
#45) For the first time in U.S. history, more than 40 million Americans are on food stamps,
and the U.S. Department of Agriculture projects that number will go up to 43
million Americans in 2011.
#44) It has come out that one employee used a Federal
Emergency Management Agency credit card to buy $4,318 in “Happy
Birthday” gift cards. Two
other FEMA officials charged the cost of 360 golf umbrellas ($9,000) to the
taxpayers.
#43) Researchers at the State University of New York at
Buffalo received $389,000 from the U.S. government to pay
100 residents of Buffalo $45 each to record how much malt liquor they drink and how much
pot they smoke each day.
#42) The average duration of unemployment in the United States
has risen to an all-time high.
#41) The bottom 40 percent of all income earners in
the United States now collectively own less than 1 percent of the nation’s
wealth.
#40) In the U.S., the average federal worker now earns about twice as much as the average
worker in the private sector.
#39) Back in 1950 each retiree’s Social Security benefit
was paid for by 16 workers. Today, each retiree’s Social
Security benefit is paid for by approximately 3.3 workers.
By 2025 it is projected that there will be approximately two workers
for each retiree.
#38) According to a U.S. Treasury Department report to
Congress, the U.S. national debt will top $13.6 trillion this year and climb to an estimated $19.6 trillion by 2015.
#37) The federal government actually has the gall to ask for online
donations that will supposedly go towards paying off the national
debt.
#36) The Cactus Bug Project at the University Of
Florida was allocated $325,394 in economic stimulus funds to study the mating decisions of cactus bugs.
#35) A dinner cruise company in Chicago got nearly $1
million in economic stimulus funds to combat terrorism.
#34) It is being reported that a 6-year-old girl from Ohio is
on the “no fly” list maintained by U.S. Homeland Security.
#33) During the first quarter of 2010, the total number of
loans that are at least three months past due in the United States increased for the 16th consecutive quarter.
#32) According to a new report, Americans spend twice as much as residents of other
developed countries on healthcare, but get lower quality and far less
efficiency.
#31) Some experts are warning that the cost of bailing
out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could reach as high as $1
trillion.
#30) The FDA has announced that the offspring of cloned animals could be in our food
supply right now and that there is nothing that they can do about
it.
#29) In May, sales of new homes in the United States dropped to the lowest level ever
recorded.
#28) In 1950, the ratio of the average executive’s paycheck to
the average worker’s paycheck was about 30 to 1. Since the year 2000,
that ratio has ranged between 300 to 500 to one.
#27) Federal border officials recently said that Mexican
drug cartels have not only set up shop on American soil, they are
actually maintaining lookout bases in
strategic locations in the hills of southern Arizona.
#26) The U.S. government has declared some parts
of Arizona off limits to U.S. citizens because of
the threat of violence from Mexican drug smugglers.
#25) According to the credit card repayment calculator, if you
owe $6000 on a credit card with a 20 percent interest rate and only pay the
minimum payment each time, it will take you 54 years to pay off that credit
card. During those 54 years you will pay $26,168 in interest
rate charges in addition to the $6000 in principal that you are required to pay
back.
#24) According to prepared testimony by Goldman Sachs Chief
Operating Officer Gary Cohn, Goldman Sachs shorted roughly $615 million of
the collateralized debt obligations and residential mortgage-backed securities
the firm underwrote since late 2006.
#23) The six biggest banks in the United States now
possess assets equivalent to 60 percent of America’s gross national product.
#22) Four of the biggest U.S. banks (Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan
Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup) had a “perfect
quarter” with zero days of trading losses during the
first quarter of 2010.
#21) 1.41 million Americans filed for personal bankruptcy in
2009 – a 32 percent increase over 2008.
#20) BP has hired private security contractors
to keep the American people away from oil cleanup sites and nobody
seems to care.
#19) Barack Obama is calling for a “civilian expeditionary force”
to be sent to Afghanistan and Iraq to help overburdened military troops build
infrastructure.
#18) On June 18th, two Christians decided that they would
peacefully pass out copies of the gospel of John on a public sidewalk
outside a public Arab festival in Dearborn, Michigan and within 3 minutes
8 policemen surrounded them and placed them under arrest.
#17) It is being reported that sales of foreclosed homes in
Florida made up nearly 40 percent of all
home purchases in the first part of this year.
#16) During a recent interview with Larry King,
former first lady Laura Bush revealed to the world that she is actually in
favor of legalized gay marriage and a woman’s “right” to abortion.
#15) Scientists at Columbia University are warning that the
dose of radiation from the new full body security scanners going into airports
all over the United States could be up to 20 times higher
than originally estimated.
#14) 43 percent of Americans have less than $10,000
saved for retirement.
#13) The FDIC’s deposit insurance fund now has negative 20.7 billion dollars in it,
which represents a slight improvement from the end of 2009.
#12) The judge that BP is pushing for to hear an
estimated 200 lawsuits on the Gulf of Mexico oil disaster gets tens of thousands of dollars a
year in oil royalties and is paid travel expenses to industry
conferences.
#11) In recent years the U.S. government has spent $2.6
million tax dollars to study the drinking habits of Chinese prostitutes and
$400,000 tax dollars to pay researchers to cruise six bars in Buenos
Aires, Argentina to find out why gay men engage in risky sexual behavior
when drunk.
#10) U.S. officials say that more than three billion
dollars in cash (much of it aid money paid for by U.S. taxpayers)
has been stolen by corrupt officials in Afghanistan and flown out of Kabul
International Airport in recent years.
#9) According to a report by the U.S. Department of
Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics, the baggage check fees
collected by U.S. airlines shot up 33% in the first
quarter of 2010 to $769 million.
#8) Three California high school students are fighting for
their right to show their American patriotism - even on a Mexican
holiday - after they were forced to remove
their American flag T-shirts on Cinco de Mayo.
#7) Right now, interest on the U.S. national debt and spending
on entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare are somewhere in
the neighborhood of 10 to 15 percent of GDP. By 2080, they are
projected to eat up approximately 50 percent of GDP.
#6) The total of all government, corporate and consumer
debt in the United States is now about 360 percent of GDP.
#5) A 6-year-old girl was recently handcuffed and sent to
a mental facility after throwing temper tantrums at her
elementary school.
#4) In Florida, students have been arrested by police for things as
simple as bringing a plastic butter knife to school, throwing an eraser,
and drawing a picture of a gun.
#3) School officials in one town in Massachusetts are
refusing to allow students to recite the Pledge of Allegiance.
#2) According to one new study, approximately 21 percent
of children in the United States are living below the poverty line in 2010.
#1) Since 1973, more than 50 million babies have been
murdered in abortion facilities across the United States.
Drudgereport: JUNE UNEMPLOYMENT 9.5%... 125,000 JOBS
LOST...
Rate
dips as 652,000 give up search...
Depressing...
[That’s why they’re called depressions (just kidding … but no laughing matter)
… At this rate, with all those lost jobs and jobseekers no longer seeking
those lost jobs that aren’t there, by their calculations (9.5% the bright spot
… riiiiight!) we should be at full employment very soon … you can’t make this
stuff up … really!].
New
jobless claims rise [again]...
'Surprise'...
Pending
home sales plunge record 30%...
Weak economic
data suggest 'recovery' fizzling...
Fears
mount over slowing global demand...
UN
committee calls for dumping US dollar...
Six Months
to Go Until the Largest Tax Hikes in History...
From Ryan Ellis on Thursday, July 1, 2010 4:15 PM
Read more: http://www.atr.org/six-months-untilbr-largest-tax-hikes-a5171##ixzz0sVN5aBH3
In just six months, the largest tax hikes in the history of America
will take effect. They will hit families and small businesses in three great
waves on January 1, 2011:
First Wave: Expiration of 2001 and 2003 Tax Relief
In 2001 and 2003, the GOP Congress enacted several tax cuts for investors,
small business owners, and families. These will all expire on January 1,
2011:
Personal income tax rates will rise. The top income tax
rate will rise from 35 to 39.6 percent (this is also the rate at which
two-thirds of small business profits are taxed). The lowest rate will
rise from 10 to 15 percent. All the rates in between will also
rise. Itemized deductions and personal exemptions will again phase out,
which has the same mathematical effect as higher marginal tax rates. The
full list of marginal rate hikes is below:
- The 10% bracket rises to an expanded 15%
- The 25% bracket rises to 28%
- The 28% bracket rises to 31%
- The 33% bracket rises to 36%
- The 35% bracket rises to 39.6%
Higher taxes on marriage and family. The “marriage
penalty” (narrower tax brackets for married couples) will return from the first
dollar of income. The child tax credit will be cut in half from $1000 to
$500 per child. The standard deduction will no longer be doubled for
married couples relative to the single level. The dependent care and
adoption tax credits will be cut.
The return of the Death Tax. This year, there is no
death tax. For those dying on or after January 1 2011, there is a 55
percent top death tax rate on estates over $1 million. A person leaving
behind two homes and a retirement account could easily pass along a death tax
bill to their loved ones.
Higher tax rates on savers and investors. The capital
gains tax will rise from 15 percent this year to 20 percent in 2011. The
dividends tax will rise from 15 percent this year to 39.6 percent in
2011. These rates will rise another 3.8 percent in 2013.
Second Wave: Obamacare
There are over twenty new or higher taxes in Obamacare.
Several will first go into effect on January 1, 2011. They include:
The “Medicine Cabinet Tax” Thanks to Obamacare,
Americans will no longer be able to use health savings account (HSA), flexible
spending account (FSA), or health reimbursement (HRA) pre-tax dollars to
purchase non-prescription, over-the-counter medicines (except insulin).
The “Special Needs Kids Tax” This provision of Obamacare
imposes a cap on flexible spending accounts (FSAs) of $2500 (Currently, there
is no federal government limit). There is one group of FSA owners for
whom this new cap will be particularly cruel and onerous: parents of special
needs children. There are thousands of families with special needs
children in the United States, and many of them use FSAs to pay for special
needs education. Tuition rates at one leading school that teaches special
needs children in Washington, D.C. (National Child Research Center) can easily
exceed $14,000 per year. Under tax rules, FSA dollars can be used to pay
for this type of special needs education.
The HSA Withdrawal Tax Hike. This provision of Obamacare
increases the additional tax on non-medical early withdrawals from an HSA from
10 to 20 percent, disadvantaging them relative to IRAs and other tax-advantaged
accounts, which remain at 10 percent.
Third Wave: The Alternative Minimum Tax and Employer Tax Hikes
When Americans prepare to file their tax returns in January of 2011, they’ll be
in for a nasty surprise—the AMT won’t be held harmless, and many tax relief
provisions will have expired. The major items include:
The AMT will ensnare over 28 million families, up from 4 million last
year. According to the left-leaning Tax Policy Center, Congress’ failure to index
the AMT will lead to an explosion of AMT taxpaying families—rising from 4
million last year to 28.5 million. These families will have to calculate
their tax burdens twice, and pay taxes at the higher level. The AMT was
created in 1969 to ensnare a handful of taxpayers.
Small business expensing will be slashed and 50% expensing will
disappear. Small businesses can normally expense (rather than
slowly-deduct, or “depreciate”) equipment purchases up to $250,000. This
will be cut all the way down to $25,000. Larger businesses can expense
half of their purchases of equipment. In January of 2011, all of it will
have to be “depreciated.”
Taxes will be raised on all types of businesses. There
are literally scores of tax hikes on business that will take place. The
biggest is the loss of the “research and experimentation tax credit,” but there are many, many others. Combining
high marginal tax rates with the loss of this tax relief will cost jobs.
Tax Benefits for Education and Teaching Reduced. The
deduction for tuition and fees will not be available. Tax credits for
education will be limited. Teachers will no longer be able to deduct
classroom expenses. Coverdell Education Savings Accounts will be
cut. Employer-provided educational assistance is curtailed. The
student loan interest deduction will be disallowed for hundreds of thousands of
families.
Charitable Contributions from IRAs no longer allowed.
Under current law, a retired person with an IRA can contribute up to $100,000
per year directly to a charity from their IRA. This contribution also
counts toward an annual “required minimum distribution.” This ability
will no longer be there.
Read more: http://www.atr.org/six-months-untilbr-largest-tax-hikes-a5171##ixzz0sVMwYIhK
Investors get more gloomy & bearish We just had a very
difficult three month stretch for stocks. The S&P 500 fell 12% for
the quarter as did NASDAQ. The Shanghai Composite, China’s largest stock index, fell 22.9 in its local
currency, the yuan. The MSCI EAFE Index (foreign stocks) was down 14%.
Given the negative news, it is not surprising that investors are becoming more
bearish on stocks. This chart from Bespoke is based on the weekly Investors
Intelligence survey, which is getting close to levels from a year
ago. This is not close the peak we reached in early 2009, but the mood is
definitely more negative now: [chart]
Double Dip on the Way There were many events contributing to yesterday’s sell-off, and the
most likely culprits around the globe included more protests in Greece,
continued to concerns about Europe at large, and a downward revision (due to a
calculation error) of a leading economic indicator reading in China for the
month of April. But when it comes down to it, our own economy has yet to stand
on solid ground. While the recovery has continued to be shaky at best, recent
economic readings may be pointing to a double dip recession. Yesterday’s batch
of economic data seemed to be confirming that, as it brought a very dismal
reading on consumer confidence. June’s number stood at 52.9, far below
expectations of 62.5, and pointing to the consumers’ weariness about the job
market, and economic recovery in general. To go further, the previous reading
for May was revised downward, to 62.7 from 63.3. But the drop from May to June
really sends the message home: we’re not out of the woods yet. Earlier in the
week, we saw personal savings rates rise again, even while personal income
growth was meager. Americans, despite bringing home a little more cash,
continued to save more for the expected rainy days, and have yet to return to
their spendthrift ways. After yesterday’s precipitous selling, one would expect
to see a bit of a bounce in today’s trading session. That wasn’t the case,
however, as more weak data continued to dampen economic hopes. Today’s culprit
was the ADP private sector job report. The report stated that private payroll
gains were muted in June, with only 13,000 jobs added – far less than the
60,000 expected by economists. While May’s reading was revised slightly upwards
(to 57,000 hires from previously reported 55,000), today’s release does not
bode well for the much anticipated report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
due out on Friday. The non-farms payroll survey includes government workers and
has been inflated in recent months due to hiring for the 2010 Census … [chart]
…The June report, however, will reflect many of those workers being laid off in
the past month. In May, 431,000 jobs were added, but without support from
temporary government hires, economists are predicting job losses in June. Last week,
consensus estimates were for a loss of 70,000 jobs for the month. By yesterday,
those estimates were downgraded further, to 110,000. With the help of today’s
ADP report, expectations have continued to fall: economists now expect a
reading of negative 125,000 …
Barron's: Why the Market Will Keep Sliding Perry D- Barron's has a nice summary of what the future may hold in its
"Up and Down Wall Street." It summarizes as well as anything I've
read recently where we're likely headed. Bugging the (stock) market is the
increasingly obvious disparity between what the Street's incorrigible
cheerleaders see and prophesy and what's actually happening in the real
world...The double dip in housing may or may not be a template of what's in
store for the economy as a whole. But at the very least, it is a precursor of
other serious disappointments destined to feed the unease among the jittery
populace, which most emphatically includes investors.
It cites the predictions of SDK Captial's Dee Kessler:
--the massive
fiscal and monetary stimulus so liberally applied in 2008-2009 is starting to
run out of steam, with financial conditions tightening and leading economic
indicators pointing to a stretch of "anemic activity."
--"structural
headwinds," such as public and private deleveraging, higher taxes, greater
regulation and trade tensions.
--the
well-publicized woes of the European bloc, which accounts for 20% of the
world's GDP, as further evidence that the global economy, as he puts it, is
downshifting.
--The period of
easy comparisons in corporate results, he says, is coming to a close,
--"Although
the fundamentals in the U.S., Europe and Japan are worse," Dee spots
plenty of downside in emerging markets and doesn't fancy the notion of
decoupling.
--Come another
financial crisis, "the only policy response left will be to print
money." Which, of course, is what the gold bugs are counting on and why
bullion has glistened so brightly.
That about sums
up the outlook. The nice insight here is that anxiety over future economic
malaise -- and the additional money printing that'll be done to mask it --
might be a bigger factor than current inflationary pressure behind the surge in
gold prices.
In other words,
for the deflation-believers: deflation today? Perhaps. But big-time inflation
tomorrow.
Disclosure: No positions
NY
Times’ Krugman: We Are Entering The Third Depression Recessions are
common; depressions are rare. [Correction: we’re already in a depression].
Stocks: Once More Up, Then the Big Down Smith -The ingredients
for a classic head and shoulders topping pattern in the stock market are all
present. That suggests one more rise and then a massive grinding move down to
2009 lows. Officially, of course, everything's peachy with the economy.
Europe is fixed, China is booming, consumer confidence is rising, and we are
encouraged to resume our borrow and spend ways as the economy will not
"double-dip" into recession. The economy will not slide into another
recession, we are reassured constantly, even though roughly 80% of Americans
don't think we ever left the recessionary quicksand. Please see "Two
Scoop Special": Double-Dip Recession Guaranteed (May 21, 2010) for
more … Exactly what drivers are there for future gains in corporate profits? I
can't think of any, short of Martians landing and going on a shopping spree
with gold they manufacture in their spacecraft. On the negative side, we have:
1. The rising dollar is a huge headwind to sales in the
eurozone and elsewhere.
2. The low-hanging fruit of pushing the workforce to produce more output for
the same salary/wages have all been picked.
3. The inventory build-out is done for everything but the iPhone 4 and iPad.
4. So-called "fiscal austerity" (when did living within one's means
become some sort of brutual "austerity"? Talk abour propaganda!) in
the eurozone and U.S. states will remove tens of billions of dollars from
corporate sales.
5. Global overcapacity is alive and well. There is overcapacity in everything
manufactured except the iPhone 4, and that will be in glut by 2011 as well.
6. Uncle Sam is not distributing trillions of dollars quite as freely. There
seems to be some glimmer of awareness that there could be consequences of squandering
trillions of borrowed dollars on essentially worthless projects such as
occupying Iraq, inflating the housing market by socializing the entire mortgage
market, propping up Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA, etc.
7. Housing is rolling over now that the socialized mortgage market has been
tentatively allowed to go off life-support (it is wheezing and turning blue in
the face, not signs of vibrant health).
8. There is no pricing power anywhere once stimulus-goosed demand declines to
organic demand (flat to down) …
Momentum Book Update: The Market Is a Mess and the Long Bond Is
About to Break Out … Not only do us swing traders have to fight the urge
to chase price action up, but lay off the keyboard trying to catch falling
knives in the relative strength stocks which are holding up. If you tried to
buy support in your favorite names this week, you got your hands cut up. I’ll continue to rely on the understanding of my own
emotions as they have served me well. When we opened higher on Monday morning I
knew I was in the right place, cash, as the market was just way overbought. If
you bought most relative strength names last week, by the end of this week you
were well underwater. So where do we go from here? I’ve got no clue, the market is a mess, the charts are a mess, and the
long bond is about to break out. If that happens all bets are off, we could see
an “event”. If the smart money is lining up at the exits and moving into
bonds, there’s a good chance they see
something coming down the pipe …
SUITING UP FOR A POST-DOLLAR WORLD John Browne ‘The
global financial crisis is playing out like a slow-moving, highly predicable
stage play. In the current scene, Western governments are caught between the
demands of entitled welfare beneficiaries and the anxiety of bondholders who
fear they will be stuck with the bill. As the crisis reaches an apex, prime
ministers and presidents are forced into a Sophie's choice between social
unrest and bankruptcy. But with the "Club Med" economies set to fall
like dominoes, the US Treasury market is not yet acting the role we would have
anticipated. … The newspapers are now riddled with hints that foreign
governments have lost faith in Washington and the dollar reserve system. It
seems to me only natural that after a century of war, inflation, and socialism,
the next hundred years would belong to those people who hold the timeless
values of hard money and fiscal prudence. Unfortunately, our policymakers are
not those people.’
China's
Hu Jintao Says Group of 20 Must Coordinate to Consolidate Recovery Bloomberg … How about the G195
countries in the world collectively be considered in this task of
coordination owing to the abject failure of the so-called G20 which have in
lockstep coordination precipitated this global crisis including the war
mongering, war criminal acts of the so-called nato allies et als, particularly
the u.s., and as well the likes of war criminal nation israel which have never
avoided a contra-indicated, anti-recovery war / conflict they could contrive /
rationalize. The so-called G7, 8, 9, 20, etc., are a pathetic bunch of
incompetent vegetables / jokers / showmen / clowns.
The following is really the
quintessential question and issue, particularly in light of america’s defacto
bankruptcy and international law; but paramount humanitarian concerns alone
would militate against america’s current misguided course. Is Petraeus McChrystal’s Replacement or Obama’s? Paul
Craig Roberts | All of this drama is playing out despite the
continuing lack of any valid reason for the american invasions of Iraq and
Afghanistan.
3 SIGNS OF A SUCKER RALLY AFTER
EXAMINING TECHNICAL EVIDENCE, SENTIMENT INDICATORS AND VARIOUS VALUATION
METRICS, IT BECOMES OBVIOUS THAT THE RECENT BOUNCE PROVIDES A SELLING, NOT
BUYING OPPORTUNITY ...’
Reports:
IAF Landed at Saudi Base, US Troops near Iran Border Arutz
Sheva | The Israeli Air Force recently unloaded military equipment at
a Saudi Arabia base, a semi-official Iranian news agency claimed
Wednesday. It’s
time for the world to take a close look at the despotic, totalitarian regime
that presently exists for the grandeur and wealth of a few while hiding behind
Islam as they betray same and Muslims everywhere. The time has come for regime
change in Saudi Arabia to yield a nation of and for the people of Saudi Arabia
and the glory of Islam.
Connecticut
vegetable lieberman: China Can Shut Down The Internet, Why Can’t We … (great
logic from a totalitarian zionist)? Senator joe Zelig the zionist
israeli lieberman, co-author of a bill that would give President Obama a ‘kill
switch’ to shut down parts of the Internet, attempted to reassure CNN viewers
yesterday that concerns about the government regulating free speech on the web
were overblown, but he only stoked more alarm by citing China, a country that
censors all online dissent against the state, as the model to which American
should compare itself.
Soros
Says ‘We Have Just Entered Act II’ of Crisis Bloomberg
| Soros said the current situation in the world economy is “eerily” reminiscent
of the 1930s. Gerald
Celente: U.S. Financial Markets to Collapse by End of 2010 Infowars.com
| Gerald Celente is a renowned trend forecaster, publisher of the Trends
Journal, business consultant and author who makes predictions about the global
financial markets and other events of historical
importance. Jobless
Claims in U.S. Decreased Last Week to 456,000 Bloomberg |
More Americans than anticipated filed applications for unemployment benefits
last week.
Market Outlook: Bearish Background to Bullish Storyline Sean
Hannon: ‘The last two weekly market
commentaries have discussed how the underlying trend of the market is now
bearish and all rallies should be used to sell stocks and reduce risks. With
nearly every news outlet spouting the bullish storyline, these articles served
as an outline of a disciplined investment strategy. Those who followed the
outline have done well as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow), S&P 500,
and NASDAQ each declined over 5% since my initial warning. With the Dow still
stuck below the psychologically important 10,000 level and all three major U.S.
markets trading beneath their 200-day moving averages (MA), the bearish
backdrop is clear. Even if many are still looking for a rally, we should
understand that the primary trend is lower. Instead of focusing on how high
prices will rally, we should instead consider how much further prices can fall
…’
Greek
Default Seen by Almost 75% in Poll Doubtful About Trichet Global
investors have little confidence in Europe’s efforts to contain its debt crisis
or in European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, with 73 percent
calling a default by Greece likely. 12
Reasons Why The U.S. Housing Crash Is Far From Over Over the past
several months, many in the mainstream media have hailed the slight improvement
in the U.S. real estate market as a “housing
recovery”. US
Needs Austerity Too: Hedge Fund Strategist The United States will
have to adopt austerity measures similar to the ones taken in Europe, because
the problems faced are largely the same, Timothy Scala, macro-strategist at
Sophis Investments, told CNBC.com. Market
Analyst: ‘BP’s Not Going to Last as a Company More Than a Matter of Months’ We’ve
heard politicians, even conservative Republicans, suggest BP would be held
completely responsible for the devastation caused by the oil spill plaguing the
Gulf of Mexico, even if it means its very existence.
US
Media Terrified Of Mentioning USS Liberty Do you know that an
american naval vessel was attacked by israel in international waters, 43 years
ago today, resulting in the deaths of dozens of american sailors
Arab lawmaker on flotilla sparks outrage in israel (AP) -
An Israeli-Arab lawmaker's decision to join hundreds of activists on a
pro-Palestinian flotilla has elevated her from relative political obscurity,
transforming her into the poster child for the ...
DEBT
POISED TO OVERTAKE GDP Key
Indicators of a New Depression Neeraj Chaudhary |
Great Depression II developing into something far more devastating than its predecessor
You’re Being Decieved
Infowars.com | We’re heading over an economic cliff and
there’s nothing the government can or will do about it except
lie. The
Folly of Blindly Trusting the Government
‘What Does China Want?’ They want to speak to Rosanne
Rosanna Danna, of course! ‘Asian markets tumble on fears over Hungary’
…Riiiiight! Hungary’s the thing! … Rosanne Rosanna Danna, formerly of SNL fame
wanted in Asia to chime in with what her mama always used to say, ‘ It’s always
something ‘ . Of course, it matters little to the frauds on wall street what
the something is said to be since the reality is … ‘This is a global
depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. This was a
manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a
typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great
regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into.
This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud
as in prior crashes.’ ( It should be noted, and there
have been a multitude of other instances, that I’m getting substantial
‘attacks’ vis-à-vis my internet connection which has slowed dramatically these
posts. I don’t think the interference is either accidental nor just
coincidental but consistent with corrupt defacto bankrupt america’s critics of
which I am one and not alone in that regard – slowing, militating against the
devastating truth about america.) Europe
is Heading for a Depression Despite a nearly-$1 trillion rescue operation,
financial conditions in the eurozone continue to deteriorate. All the gauges of
market stress are edging upwards and credit default swaps (CDS) spreads have
widened to levels not seen since the weekend of the emergency
euro-summit. Key
Indicators of a New Depression With the mainstream media focusing on the
country’s leveling unemployment rate, improving retail sales, and nascent
housing recovery, one might think that the US government has successfully
navigated the economy through recession and growth has
returned. Get Ready for a Double Dip … but many warning
flags point towards significant deterioration in the U.S. and global economy
going forward and so I think that by the end of the year or early 2011, we
could very well be facing a new leg down in the world’s economic situation …
[I’d say too optimistic since, to reiterate: This
is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression.
This was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has
been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with
great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell
into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam /
fraud as in prior crashes.]
european
central banks intervened to shore up the ever more worthless euro, buying into
that fraudulent wall street b*** s*** story that that ‘s a good thing, rallying
stocks off their lows. It is amazing how dumb europe has become so quickly. An
exception is what I believe was Germany’s steps against derivatives, which market
according to a derivatives trader on the radio this day is a $40 trillion
market (missed his name). To reiterate as applicable to yet another fraudulent
scheme previously stated, said market is paper on paper moving around and
generating commissions at lightning computerized speed but adding no real value
in real economic terms; again, the analogy of termites eating away at the
(nation’s) foundation is apposite. As such, that money has to come from some
real place and hence, the ever more frequent and larger crashes we are seeing.
Don’t forget that the worthless paper from previous such fraudulent schemes now
marked to anything is still out there in a magnitude some have placed in the
hundreds of trillions.
The
Worst Money Supply Plunge Since The Depression Means A Double Dip Is Now A
‘Virtual Certainty’ The stock of U.S. money as measured by ‘M3′
money supply fell to $13.9 trillion from $14.2 trillion during the three months
ending in April. [ This is still an extraordinarily
high level but … I don’t buy it. I believe the printing presses have been working
overtime to pump out ever more worthless fiat currency and with the many
trillions of worthless fraudulent paper still out there and marked to anything.
I further believe the same is being surreptitiously used to supplant the
fraudulent paper, the consequences of which will be devastating, of course, as
is invariably so in depressions in any event. This scenario would also mean
huge fraud accomplis. ] Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level The bankster
operative who helped destroy Glass-Steagall is back. Larry Summers, Obama’s top
economic adviser, has told Congress to “grit its teeth” and approve a fresh
fiscal boost of $200 billion to keep growth on track, reports the Daily
Telegraph. Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level Kurt Nimmo
| The Federal Reserve stopped publishing M3 figures back in 2006.
The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally
prosecuted, jailed, fined and disgorgement imposed. If that were so, they
wouldn’t be worrying about who wins / loses since those who fraudulently play,
invariably would (and should) pay. If they’re not prosecuted, everyone
loses.
POST MORTEM AND REVIEW Ricky:
A post mortem is in order. The elements of this
worldwide con game are remarkably simple, not complex at all. Apparently you
only need a few things to make a mockery of the entire global economic system,
and big banks garnered these few important things through “regulatory capture”:
1) Unregulated, unenforced rules (particularly for
derivatives)
2) license to “mark to model” (assign your own values to your assets)
3) ability to peg present value to irrational expected future returns (based on
unlimited, exponential growth)
4) infinite leverage (no effective requirements for reserve capital in
unregulated “shadow” markets)
5) massive size, so that the bank is "too big to fail"
6) non-transparency and non-accountability.
SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY!
THE FORECASTS:
Harry Dent, Jr.
Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012
Russell Napier is the author of the book “Anatomy of the Bear”, a professor at the
Edinburgh Business School and a consultant to CLSA Ltd. which is one of the top
research houses in Asia. Napier’s research indicates (and I paraphrase) that:
The S&P 500 will Decline to 400 by 2014 (the Dow 30 to 3800)
The S&P 500 will then undergo a major crash that will see U.S. equity
prices bottom at almost 50% below current levels (i.e. to 400 or less; the Dow
30 to 3800 or less) sometime around 2014 as Tobin’s “q” drops to 0.3 signaling
the end of the bear market, as it has done at the end of the four largest U.S.
market declines in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982.
U.S. Treasury Sales Collapse Leading to End of U.S. Dollar as Reserve Currency
Robert R. Prechter Jr. is author of a number of newsletters and books including
“Elliott Wave Principle” (1978) in which he predicted the super bull market of
the 1980s; “At the Crest of the Tidal Wave – A Forecast of the Great Bear
Market” (1995) in which he predicted a slow motion economic earthquake, brought
about by a great asset mania, that would register 11 on the financial Richter
scale causing a collapse of historic proportions; and “Conquer the Crash: You
can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression” (2002) in which he
described the economic cataclysm that we are just beginning to experience and
advised how to position one’s self financially during that period of time.
Depression is Imminent
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to
below 777 which was the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and
quite likely drop below 400 at one or more times during the bear market.
According to the Debt Clock:
• Total national debt: $13 trillion
• Debt per citizen: $42,026
• Debt per taxpayer: $117,982
• Total interest due: $1.9 trillion
• Interest per citizen: $2,211
Click here to see the Debt Clock, which is updated every
second.
• Total personal debt: $16.5 trillion
• Total mortgage debt: $14.1 trillion
• Total consumer debt: $2.45 trillion
• Personal debt per citizen: $53,483
• Debt held by foreign countries: $4.07
trillion
Go to following pages for
above links:
http://www.albertpeia.com/currentopics2ndqtr10108.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm
NATION NEWS DIGEST: J.P. Morgan Chase
posts $4.8 billion profit (Washington Post) Yet another ‘Come on’ day on fraudulent wall street! This
time it’s the unexpected jump in continuing claims for unemployment, yesterday
the downward revision to previous market-frothing retail sales report and poor
retail sales and plunge in mortgage applications and then there’s the fed
minutes pointing to extended bad economy. Then there’s also now the ‘goldfinger
factor’ as in goldman’s middle finger. When you defraud for many billions, paying $550 million is
chump change. Goldman shares rocketed 5.5% in after-hours trading. No wonder
Goldman called it "the right outcome for our firm shareholders and
clients." (Absent
prosecutions, they’ll continue to do what comes natural to frauds on wall
street). Great opportunity to sell / take profits since much worse, also called
reality beyond the b*** s***, to come. Then there’s also the bad but typical
news; viz., previous retail sales, mortgage apps, economic outlook down, and
continuing claims for unemployment, deficits, trade / budget, up. (Just in:
7-16-10 Poll – only 43% of Americans approve of the Afganistan War, down from
52% in January, 2010)
Pearlstein: Can
regulation beget innovation? (Washington Post) I believe the more seminal question to be,
whether american companies, consistent with overall american decline and
corruption in so pervasive a fashion, are capable of or inclined toward real
innovation where enhancements to productivity, as well as greater profits, is
the consequence as desired. Certainly there has been ‘innovation’ by the wall
street frauds in the types of (ultimately worthless / fraudulent) paper and high
frequency trade programs enhancing their bottom-lines but little else; and,
those cutting edge ‘weapons of mass destruction’ produced or financed (israel)
by america are hardly productive in the economic sense but innovative and
profitable in the short run, and unwise and nation-bankrupting in the longer
run which we’re in right now!
U.S.
to host Mideast peace talks (Washington Post) [ Call
me skeptical, cynical, etc., but somehow, u.s. juxtaposed with the words Mideast, peace strains credulity and just doesn’t ring true! ] While citing obstacles, White House expresses
hope that deal for Palestinian state may come soon.
Mideast DIGEST (Washington
Post) netanayahu
admits on video he deceived US to destroy Oslo accord The contents of a
secretly recorded video threaten to gravely embarrass not only Benjamin
netanayahu, the Israeli prime minister but also the US administration of Barack
Obama.
Ex-bank executives say their
dismissals caused panic withdrawals in Kabul (Post,
September 4, 2010; 8:52 AM) Karzai
urges Afghans not to panic as bank withdrawals accelerate (Post,
September 4, 2010; 3:11 AM) Suicide bombing kills at lesat 55
(Washington Post) Pakistan… After
Iraq war, uncertainty and seemingly mixed messages (Post,
September 2, 2010; 4:26 PM) [ What do these nations have in common? An
american presence … and from the foregoing it’s clear that this sounds like a
reporting job for Rosanne Rosanna Dana of SNL fame who has insight into such
scenarios as this ‘cause her mama always said …it’s always something! ]
U.S. to temper stance on
Afghanistan corruption (Washington Post) [ Sounds like a plan! After all, in
america’s own image of corruption, ie., bribery, heroin trade, etc., they’re
remolding Afghanistan replete with good old american style corruption and they
don’t want no noses pokin’ around to see america’s direct involvement in the
corruption, bribery, etc., and particularly the heroin trade, the american
raison d’etre there where the Taliban had all but eradicated the heroin
production / trade which surged thereafter with the american participation. The
American rationale seems to be, continue the corruption, etc., since to
eliminate same would help the Taliban. Riiiiight! My, oh my! You can’t make this stuff up.] Military officials conclude that effort to
drive out all but the most corrosive abuses in region would create a power
vacuum that Taliban could exploit.
Obama:
'It is time to turn the page' on Iraq war (Washington
Post) [ Oh come on! How patronizing to have wobama spew his b*** s*** which
b.s. has become synonomous with wobama; ‘to give Iraqis the chance to shape their future’… Iraq’s been destroyed,
covered in cancer-causing depleted uranium, america’s defacto bankrupt, etc. If
only teleprompters had a brain of their own. ] He says the U.S. "has paid a huge price" to give Iraqis the
chance to shape their future -- a price that now includes more than 4,400 U.S.
dead.
7
U.S. troops die in Afghanistan violence (Washington
Post) [ I was discussing my opposition
to the contrived conflict in Iraq with a former air force man with high (top?)
security clearance from economic, geopolitical, and humanitarian perspectives;
and further, mentioned I had sought and gotten an appointment to West Point (I
was exempt) so I could go (Vietnam) as an officer rather than a grunt who were
being used as mere cannon fodder as now in Iraq (I also related the fact that I
am thankful, for a multitude of reasons, I changed my mind in light of then new
realities). He replied, quite seriously, that’s what they’re there for… No they
are not! But yes, that is their unequivocal, unforgiveable attitude beyond the
b*** s*** (look at cheney-5 deferments, bush-powderpuff duty courtesy of poppy
bush, clinton-draft dodger, wobama-never served, etc.. Just a destructive
waste!) The latest deaths bring
to 42 the number of American forces who have died this month in Afghanistan
after July's high of 66.
U.S.
officers weary and humbled (Washington Post) [ Indeed they should be; and, if they are able
to make sense of the last 2 decades particularly, they are certifiably true
american crazy, a condition in the u.s. and among it’s war mongering allies
that is found in self-destructive abundance. No joke! And then there are the
crimes / frauds. My position is also that such frauds as the disappearance of
the 360 tons of $100 bills, etc., and similar such frauds should come right off
the top, a direct reduction in their budget allocation particularly in light of
the defacto bankruptcy of the nation! ]
How Iraq vets make sense
of the last seven years will affect how america wields its military power [very
poorly indeed!] .
Paul
Craig Roberts: Government Abandoned Vietnam POWs Kurt Nimmo
| John McCain worked overtime to make sure Vietnam POWs never came home. I
think the even bigger story vis-à-vis mccain is: http://www.albertpeia.com/heroenot.htm
‘Did you know that that so-called "american heroe" john mccain was
referred to by his fellow pows in Vietnam as something akin to the
"songbird" inasmuch as he was constantly "singing" to his
Viet-Cong captors to curry favor and better treatment? This has been documented
with authority by Colonel David Hackworth. The same violates military
code/protocol (other soldiers have been court-martialed for far less) [ http://www.albertpeia.com/hackworth.htm
] But, you see, this covered up scenario, compromizing the false facade
of far less than a heroe, is exactly what a criminal (lie of a) nation as
america loves and encourages (get everyone's hands dirty so no-one dares to
rectify same, ie., bush, sr., clinton, bush, jr.). That is, "toe the
(corrupt, propagandized) line", become a criminal, or be exposed,
prosecuted, and/or ruined; and, hasn't anyone asked how "wall street"
has been "spared the spotlight" (and even was accorded protective
legislation from their criminal culpability) and focus of inquiry, attention,
and prosecution despite being the primary beneficiaries financial and otherwise
of these scams (you know the wall street motto, "churn and earn";
huge conflicts of interest if not outright fraud)
In
Iraq, a precarious time plagued by 'what ifs' (Washington
Post) [ How ‘bout in america, a
precarious time plagued by ‘what ifs’. What if bush et als hadn’t lied and
brought us this (these) illegal war(s). What if america hadn’t been bankrupted
by these pointless, self-defeating, and endless war policies. What if wobama
had delivered on his promises. What if … ] ‘…"The Americans are leaving,
and they didn't solve the problems," said Falah al-Naqib, a Sunni
legislator from the secular Iraqiya bloc. "So far they've failed and left Iraq
to other countries."…’
Fla.
pastor reconsiders plan on burning Korans (Washington Post) [ Sounds like a plan!
Riiiiight! ] Amid disagreement
over whether deal was struck to move mosque near Ground Zero in exchange for
calling off burning, he now says he's "suspending" event.
Afghans
still see U.S. as bad guy [Riiiiight! Sounds like a plan … winning hearts and minds throughout the
world … great for exports also as such ‘won hearts and minds’ just love to buy
american.] American, NATO forces retain blame for civilian deaths despite spike
from insurgent violence.
U.S. looks to replicate Iraq
strategy, tactics (Washington Post ) [Oh right! Stick with that winning plan that worked so swimmingly (as
in drowning, in ie., debt, death, regional if not wordly anti-american
sentiment, etc.)]. In Kandahar, U.S. military
officials hope that a secure green zone, similar to the area in Baghdad, will
make it more difficult for Taliban insurgents to mount attacks to key buildings
in the Afghan city.
China
focuses on military might (Washington Post) [And the big difference here (between them
and defacto bankrupt america) is that ‘THEY CAN AFFORD IT’ and are not fighting
nation-bankrupting, anti-american-sentiment-creating wars all over the
place.] Nation is quickly modernizing
forces, extending influence deep into Pacific and Indian oceans.
Asian
sites' protection urged to save tigers (Washington
Post) [ This is clearly a noble task of the highest order that will
effect returns manyfold in the most positive sense for this increasing small
and troubled world. ] Just 42 sites across Asia, ranging from temperate forests
to tropical grasslands, are key to the survival of one of the world's most
iconic, and feared, wild cats - the tiger.
Secretary of stand-up: Corny Washington
jokes? Robert Gates has a million of 'em. (Washington
Post) [ Could it be that’s because he
is a joke. Certainly his prognosticating continues to be … a joke. Aw, well,
what the heck, he’s an affable killer from the CIA and he has resuscitated the
heroin trade in Afghanistan, after all … eh … cut him some slack … riiiiight! ]
A subtler tack to fight Afghan corruption?
(Washington
Post) [ How about a not so subtler tack
to fight corruption starting right here in the u.s. of a. where corruption and
crime are pervasive and in fact, at the root of the Afghanistan problems, from
american reinvigorated heroin trade to bribery attendant thereto to killing
civilians, etc.. Defacto Bankrupt, Meaningfully Lawless,
War Criminal Nation america, the leader of nations … in crime:
Though having but 5% of the world’s population, america can
boast 76% of the world’s serial killers, followed by Europe with England/UK
then Germany leading the way for the eu [excerpt, 6 minute video, Serial
Killers: Real Life Hannibal Lechters http://www.albertpeia.com/realifeamericaserialkillers.mpg (as is consistent with crime generally,
see infra)]. Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive
(defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of
the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern
emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed
employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in
this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense
( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
) ]:
Rank |
|||
# 1
|
11,877,218 |
|
|
# 2
|
6,523,706 |
|
|
# 3
|
6,507,394 |
|
… ]
A
quandary in Afghan corruption fight (Washington Post)
[ Come on! Is this some cruel
joke? Corruption, lawlessness is now synonomous with america. Afghans
question U.S.-style corruption/capitalism (Washington
Post) [ As indeed they should inasmuch as the same is neither capitalism nor
american style in the traditional sense referenced here. Defacto bankrupt, in
decline, and pervasively corrupt, meaningfully lawless america is a nation
unworthy of emulation! ] Kabul Bank became the pride of Afghanistan's
financial system by offering the conveniences and thrills of 21st-century
capitalism. But the scene outside the bank's headquarters Wednesday was far
from that modern ideal.U.S.-backed investigative teams have assembled evidence
of rampant corruption in Afghanistan, and the findings have had unintended
consequences.
Karzai
officials on CIA payroll (Washington Post)
[Riiiiight! The roster of allies … love of america breakin’ out all over
the region … boy oh boy … talk about creating your own boondoggles … well, they
can afford it. After all, it’s only taxpayer money and america’s already
defacto bankrupt. Then again, they have the requisite licenses; viz., to kill,
to steal, to distribute illegal drugs, etc.. Whew! Glad they didn’t act without
the requisite licensure.]
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Did Google Block “Barry
Soetoro” Search Term? Screenshots obtained by a Prison Planet reader suggest
that Google may have moved to de-list “Barry Soetoro” as a popular search term
shortly after it rose to the top of the Google Trends charts after yesterday’s
effort by radio talk show host Alex Jones to focus attention on Barack Obama’s
real name.
Clinton
wraps up Israeli, Palestinian talks - for now (Washington
Post) [ That’s a wrap (Hollywood speak), or just a lot of crap (reality). Well
some celluloid facetime (hill, I said celluloid, not cellulite), appearance of
doing something (not). U.S.
urges Arab states to drop israel nuclear treaty demand Reuters Oooooh! Wow! Sounds like a plan! … For world
conflagration … Another step toward nuclear prone middle east … israel should
be exempt because ….. ‘US –
Israel’s partner in crime, not a referee’ … You really can’t make this stuff up; the preposterous s***
coming out of america! ]The U.S. envoy to the UN atomic watchdog urged Arab
states to withdraw a resolution calling on Israel to sign an anti-nuclear arms
treaty, warning it would send a negative signal to Middle East peace
talks. Israelis,
Palestinians already broaching tough topics in talks, envoy says (Washington
Post) ‘US –
Israel’s partner in crime, not a referee’ (Infowars.com) Israeli and Palestinian leaders are holding a new
round of direct talks. Bombshell:
Barack Obama conclusively outed as CIA creation Wayne Madsen |
Investigative journalist Wayne Madsen has discovered CIA files that document
the agency’s connections to the lives of Barack Obama and his mother, father,
grandmother, and stepfather. ]
RAMALLAH, WEST BANK - Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton on Thursday
wrapped up three days of intense Middle East diplomacy that produced good
atmospherics but no sign that an impasse over Israeli settlement construction
has been resolved. (Alex Brandon - AP)
Accountability is unclear in israeli probe of flotilla
raid (Washington
Post) Oh, come on! An israeli probe of an
israeli massacre of civilians. Time for israel to pay; for illegal nukes, for
violations of international law, for continued violations of u.n. resolutions,
for provocations as pretexts to sabotage peace talks, and on and on ad nauseum.
Why does america among other nations feel compelled to sacrifice themselves for
the sake of a global criminal nation with an insatiable greed and blood-thirst
as israel?
The
israeli Spin-Machine in Overdrive: dershowitz to the Rescue? Armed
Israeli commandos, the elite of the elites, rappelled to the deck of a Turkish
ship carrying humanitarian relief supplies to the 1.5 million prisoners in the
Gaza concentration camp.
In
the Middle East, it's still 1947 (Washington
Post) [ Indeed it should be! Among the few
times the cia was correct, and they’ve been trying to put square pegs in round
holes ever since, to america’s substantial detriment. I wonder what what those
american sailors of the US Liberty killed by the israelis would say? USS
Liberty Survivor Threatened by Unknown Israeli This is what happened to Phillip F. Tourney, decorated war hero
and survivor of Israel’s premeditated attack on the USS Liberty 43 years ago.
On the evening of Aug. 6, Tourney was verbally threatened by a foreign national
claiming to work for the government of israel. As for the purported disdain
shown for war mongerer netanayahu, if only wobama’s actions matched his words,
the same would represent a major plus for him and the nation of america, so
sorely in need of pluses whether the same be budgetary or economic or geopolitical.
In fact, for America to abrogate 1948 would guarantee America’s survival,
prosperity, and global hegemony in the most positive sense. ]
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored A viral You Tube upload of
one of Alex Jones’ most popular feature films ‘The Obama Deception’ has been
censored following a spur of the moment campaign to elevate the movie’s title
to the top of the major internet search engines. In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Stepped-up
efforts fail to stem drug money (Washington Post) [ Come on! Wake up! That’s american, yes american big business.
The stuff that the war in Afghanistan is made of; viz., ie., heroin, etc..
]Stashing cash in spare tires, engine transmissions and truckloads of baby
diapers, couriers for Mexican drug cartels are moving tens of billions of
dollars in profits south across the border each year, a river of dirty money
that has overwhelmed U.S. and Mexican customs agents.
Mideast Digest: Iran's Ahmadinejad
calls for regional solution to Afghan crisis (Washington
Post) And appropriately so, as leader of a nation in the region as opposed to
invading nations from outside the region (particularly as one targeted by
assassins the likely assigns of those outside the region).
Judge: 'Don't ask, don't tell' is
unconstitutional (Washington Post) [ Well, we
all know that judge walker is alledgedly a homo, so the question here is
whether judge phillips is a lesbian… just kidding! Not to slight homosexuals
but to emphasize judicial bias / corruption which is pervasive in america and
I’ve observed, experienced, and have been substantially damaged by pervasive
and systemic corruption in the american judicial process which has become more
blatant and which justifies the abolition of these costly, corrupt lifetime
appointment / bureaucracies. The fact is that ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’ is the
policy throughout the pervasively corrupt federal system which is indeed as
illegal as it is unconstitutional!
( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
). ]
(Previously) I’d say this
alito vs. wobama is a tempest in a teapot inasmuch as alito is more than just a
lightweight, hack, liar, fraud etc., as set forth in the comments. alito is a
criminal who should have served / should be serving time in prison for
obstruction of justice, bribery, among other RICO violations. To alito, drug
money is as green as corporate money and worth his vote as well. In addition to
being an inept [I looked in on the one mob case he had brought, bungled, lost
(accidently on purpose?) since I was suing some mob-connected under RICO and
the court (I had known / previously met outside of court the judge Ackerman
through a client) was absolute bedlam and a total joke since incompetent
corrupt alito brought in all 20 mob defendants (rather than prosecute one or a
few to flip them first) who feigning illness had beds/cots in the courtroom
along with their moans during testimony and had the jury in stitches)] and
corrupt (see below and particularly the summary provided to the FBI under
penalty of perjury [
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
] ) u.s. attorney.
You’re naïve to think
that the so-called supreme court is any different from the rest of the
meaningfully lawless and pervasively corrupt american ‘system’. I knew well an
accomplished trial lawyer, fellow american college of trial lawyers / and a bar
examiner, who pondered from time to time becoming a judge “so he’d never have
to work again” – his words.
Some comments on
alito…all appropriate:
Probably the worst appointment in one
hundred years.
Posted by: mnjam
-----------------------
Really? That's a pretty sweeping
statement to make about someone who's only been on the court a short few years.
And I thought that liberals were in
universal agreement that Clarence Thomas was the worst appointment in all of
history?
Posted by: blert | January 28, 2010 2:11
AM | Report abuse
----------------------------
Yes. Really. Alito is a total lightweight and hack. He makes Thomas look like
John Marshall or Oliver Wendell Holmes. I KNOW ALITO.
Posted by: mnjam | January 28, 2010 2:24 AM |
the loser here is alito.lost his composure not good for a judge especially
afederal or supreme justice .loser big time this will live with guy for a very
time.roberts and the other justices will have a talk with him that is a
given.this relly larger than o one day news cycle.
Posted by: donaldtucker | January 28, 2010 1:12 AM |
Should Alito resign or be impeached?
Posted by: jdmca | January 28, 2010 1:05 AM |
I
include the first two comments to the foregoing headline:
Billo Says:
June 11th, 2010 at 6:15
am
Lunacy? Keep in mind
that this country is run and controlled by lunatics. Our press government and
military seem to take their orders from Israel. Isarel wants to be known as a
pack of “mad dogs. Do we want “mad dogs” controlling us?
Here we see a bunch of phony accusations against Iran just
like we did in the run up to the bogus wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and now
Pakistan. The boy has cried wold ten thousand times. It’s time to identify the
“lunatics” and kindly take away the car keys. If you won’t let your friends
drive drunk, why do we let a bunch of “lunatic” enemies run this place.
Glen Reply:
June 11th, 2010 at 6:47
am
Lunacy it would be.
But it is also to their
great credit that the Iranians have not made their own threats.
Everyone knows there are
3 WMD threats, Nuclear Biological and chemical. The scariest of which is
Biological.
Any attack done under
the threat of immediate biological retaliation would deter only the insane.
Watch out america home
of the insane, home of the leaders who want an 80% population reduction.
Paul
Craig Roberts: Government Abandoned Vietnam POWs Kurt Nimmo
| John McCain worked overtime to make sure Vietnam POWs never came home. I
think the even bigger story vis-à-vis mccain is: http://www.albertpeia.com/heroenot.htm
‘Did you know that that so-called "american heroe" john mccain was
referred to by his fellow pows in Vietnam as something akin to the
"songbird" inasmuch as he was constantly "singing" to his
Viet-Cong captors to curry favor and better treatment? This has been documented
with authority by Colonel David Hackworth. The same violates military
code/protocol (other soldiers have been court-martialed for far less) click Here, Here. [ http://www.albertpeia.com/hackworth.htm
] But, you see, this covered up scenario, compromizing the false facade
of far less than a heroe, is exactly what a criminal (lie of a) nation as
america loves and encourages (get everyone's hands dirty so no-one dares to
rectify same, ie., bush, sr., clinton, bush, jr.). That is, "toe the
(corrupt, propagandized) line", become a criminal, or be exposed,
prosecuted, and/or ruined; and, hasn't anyone asked how "wall street"
has been "spared the spotlight" (and even was accorded protective
legislation from their criminal culpability) and focus of inquiry, attention,
and prosecution despite being the primary beneficiaries financial and otherwise
of these scams (you know the wall street motto, "churn and earn";
huge conflicts of interest if not outright fraud)…’
Coalition wants UK space lift-off [ Don’t make me laugh! ]
Israel’s
Nukes Out of the Shadows Israel faces unprecedented pressure to
abandon its official policy of “ambiguity” on its possession of nuclear weapons
as the international community meets at the United Nations in New York this
week to consider banning such arsenals from the Middle East.
NASA wants mission to bring Martian rocks to Earth (AP) Why?
They already have that and more:
Launch
of secret US space ship masks even more secret launch of new weapon
http://www.albertpeia.com/UFOetryWeNeverWentToTheMoonPNTV.wmv
[To the
Professor at the beginning of the course]
10-5-09
Postscript: Professor *****,
I felt compelled to thank you again for the add; not to curry your favor but
indeed to express profound thanks inasmuch as this is probably the last formal
course at a formal educational institution I'll ever take; and among the most
important. While I had bought at discount a library-discarded 1993 Anthropology
by Embers text, though meaning to read same never quite got to it. I am
astounded by the substantial amount of time involved in the evolutionary
process, not that I ever stopped to think about it, and one must come away with
the sense of 'and all that...for this?'. This course should be required
curriculum along with psychology, sociology, etc., but probably won't be owing
to what is, as it should be, a very humbling educational experience for any
member of the human race.
Regards,
Al Peia
Go to following pages for
above links:
http://www.albertpeia.com/currentopics2ndqtr10108.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com
http://www.scribd.com/alpeia
http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm
You may post a comment on my blog on any topic: http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com
Drudgereport:
KRUGMAN:
'We are now, I fear, in the early stages of a third depression'...
STOCKS HIT LOWEST OF YEAR...
DEBT
SOARS TO HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE WWII...
PRIVATE SECTOR SEES WEAKER JUNE JOBS...
Sputtering...
Bilderberg
2010: Between the sword and the wall...
Protesters
'being detained, searched, questioned'...
Final
List of Participants...
Stephen Hawking: Aliens exist but don't talk to them --
it's too dangerous … might not like us… Oh pshaw! … Human nature, man’s
inhumanity to man? … Such humble beginnings and evolutionary history …
What’s not to like? … Besides, not to worry. With their advanced
technologies that defy human understanding, the aliens already know you’re here
… to stay. So, not to worry. After all, as we know from that documentary of
that same name, ‘Earth Girls Are Easy’ … and then there’s photosynthesis on
earth in a very big way also going for it! ...
Seeing
Aliens Will Likely Take Centuries. Centuries? Not goin’ to happen; at best,
decades.