Rosenberg…WHO IS DOING THE BUYING?
Is it the private client? Not really — stock funds actually had net outflows of
$1.33 billion last week, while bond funds enjoyed an $8.2 billion net inflow.
Is it corporate insiders? Well, heck no — Robert Toll (CEO of Toll Brothers)
just disclosed that he sold a total 1.6 million shares of his company’s stock
yesterday.
Is it buybacks? Not at all — in fact, S&P 500 companies bought back a mere
$24.4 billion on stock repurchases in 2Q, down 72% from a year ago and the
lowest in recorded history, according to Howard Silverblatt of Standard &
Poor’s.
So who’s doing the buying? Very likely it is still a combination of program
trading, short coverings and portfolio managers desperately trying to make up
for last year’s epic losses.
WAY TOO MUCH RISK IN THE EQUITY MARKET
Never before has the S&P 500 rallied 60% from a low in such a short time
frame as six months. And never before have we seen the S&P 500 rally 60%
over an interval in which there were 2.5 million job losses…we are reminded of
Japan where rates were microscopic for years and the Nikkei certainly did enjoy
no fewer than four 50% rallies and over 420,000 rally points in a market that
is still more than 70% lower today than it was two decades ago…