16 REASONS FOR EQUITIES MARKETS TO FALL SOON

David White

1. The equities markets have had a huge run up of over 50%. They are overbought. At approximately 18x 2009 Earnings, they are priced far above fair value. At the beginning of March 2009, they were price at only 11x 2009 Earnings. According to Art Cashin and others, fair value for the S&P500 is at about 850 to 880. At approximately 1020, the S&P500 is far from there.

2. The Insider Selling/Insider Buying ratio is 30.6. This is the highest that ratio has been since it has been tracked (2004). Those corporate officers probably know something.

3. Retail Sales are still decreasing. They were down about 4.4% for Aug. year over year according to Redbook. The much anticipated back to school season has been a bust so far. Even the Cash for Clunkers program, which gave automakers a shot in the arm, disappointed analysts. Plus it likely robbed future auto sales to record better numbers now. The national rate of auto loans that were 60 days past due was up 7.35 percent for the Quarter ended in June. That doesn’t sound like a lot of people are going to be able to afford to buy new cars soon.

4. The latest Factory Orders figures were a disappointing +1.3% vs. an expected +2.3%. July Factory Orders excluding transportation were a negative -0.7%.

5. Unemployment continues to grow. Last week’s announcement put it at 9.7%. With unemployment still rising, it is unlikely retail sales will improve soon. The lack of consumer buying may also help unemployment continue to grow.

6. Although a high percentage of companies beat earnings estimates for Q2, actual earnings were still down approximately -30% for the S&P500 stocks. Earnings predictions for the S&P500 for Q3 are still negative (approximately -20%). Much of this negativity is in the energy and the materials sectors. Q3 is likely the last high oil/commodity price quarter from last year. Future quarters should yield better results in these two areas. Still, most of the improvements to earnings this year have come through greater efficiencies. Very few companies have shown any revenue growth this year. That seems unlikely to change soon with still growing unemployment figures (and anemic retail sales). Companies will need to show revenue growth in order for the economy to really recover.

7. The “Flu Season” has started. Swine Flu is rampant in the UK. With respect to business, 72 percent of employers in the UK reported absenteeism due to Swine Flu. 38% of employers in the UK anticipated sales would be hit (Reuters). It is starting to take hold in the US. A presidential panel estimated that Swine Flu could infect 50% of the US population this fall and winter (Washington Post). This could cause 1.8M hospitalizations and as many as 90,000 deaths. I am not sure anyone would want to discount the negative effect this is likely to have on the US economy. This is a worldwide problem. The “real pandemic” is just beginning to take hold. It will have serious negative economic effects. One only has to think of the airline, cruise line, restaurant businesses, etc. to realize how true this is.

8. Inflation is starting to rear its ugly head. The ISM August Non-Manufacturing Prices Index rose to 63.1 from July's 41.3. The August ISM manufacturing data Prices index rose to 65 in Aug. from 55 in July. This looks like huge inflation. Fed Governor Hoenig was recently cited as worrying about inflation. He said that the Fed should not leave interest rates too low for too long. The fact that the Fed’s thinking is leaning this way is very bad news for businesses and for the real estate market. Hence it is bad news for the equities markets.

9. Both the residential real estate and the commercial real estate markets are still a problem. Residential real estate has shown some gains recently. Still, these gains are precarious. If inflation rears its ugly head soon, the increased interest rates could cause another downturn in residential real estate (i.e. make it effectively much more expensive). Commercial real estate seems to be worsening if anything. In fact, commercial loans are "going to be a bigger driver of bank failures towards the end of this year into next year," said Sheila Bair (FDIC).

10. We have had about 89 bank failures so far this year. Kanas predicts 1000 banks will fail in the next 2 years. If that happens, we have a lot of pain to come.

11. Wegelin & Co., Switzerland's oldest bank, is telling wealthy clients to sell their U.S. assets. Other Swiss banks may follow suit. Swiss banks account for 27% of the world's privately held offshore wealth (about $2T). If they sell all their US assets, US bonds and stocks will be hurt.

12. Consumer Sentiment in August was down to 65.7 vs. 66.0 in July. The Consumer Sentiment Current Index was worse. The August figure was only 66.6 vs. July’s 70.5.

13. The Fed is gradually ending stimulatory measures. The Fed is withdrawing money from the money supply after stuffing money in during the prior year. M2 has shrunk at a 3% pace since mid June, while MZM, the St. Louis Fed's measure of liquid money, is down by 2% over the same period. The Fed’s $300B Treasury buying program is set to end in October.

14. Prechter has called a bottom on the USD. He says that the only 3% bullish sentiment is a clear sign of a bottom. The charts seem to bear out that the USD is trying to bottom. If the USD starts going up, it likely will cause the US equities markets to go down.

15. Commodity prices have generally been going up since March. This will cut into businesses margins. This will make them less profitable, not more. It will be hard to raise prices of finished products appreciably in the current economic environment.

16. The charts are indicating a topping pattern. In fact we could be seeing another try at the famous head and shoulders pattern that failed a few weeks ago. It may not fail this time. The decreasing volume as the equities market rose is a strong indicator that the up trend is weakening. It may be in the first phases of a fairly strong reversal.