How to Get Through This Mess ‘… U.S. RECESSION NEVER ENDED; GDP TO CONTRACT IN Q3 Our suspicions have been confirmed
- the recession never ended. Macroeconomic Advisers produces a monthly U.S.
real GDP series and it shows that the peak was in April, as we expected, with
both May and June down 0.4% in the worst back-to-back performance since the
economy was crying Uncle! back in the depths of despair in September-October
2008. The quarterly data show that Q2 stands at a +1.1% annual rate (so look
for a steep downward revision for last quarter) and the 'build in' for Q3 is
-1.5% at an annual rate. Depending on the data flow through the July-September
period, it looks like we could see a -0.5% to -1% annualized pace for the
current quarter. Most economists have cut their forecasts but are still in a
+2.5% to +3.5% range. What is truly amazing is that despite all the fiscal,
monetary, and bailout stimulus, the level of real economy activity, as per the
M.A. monthly data, is still 2.5% below the prior peak. To put this fact into
context, the entire peak-to-trough contraction in the 2001 recession was 1.3%!
That is incredible. Interestingly, and dovetailing nicely with our deflation
theme, nominal GDP fell 0.3% in May and by 0.4% in June. This is a key reason
why Treasury yields are melting … Bottom line? It is going to be a tough
environment for the next 6-8 years. That is just what happens when you have a
deleveraging / balance sheet / deflationary / end of the Debt Supercycle
recession. It is what it is, and no amount of wishing or finger pointing can
change the facts … ‘
Hardship 401(k) withdrawals set record in second
quarter: More workers also borrowing from their accounts (Washington
Post, August 22, 2010) [ Clearly an
instance where ‘better late than never’ doesn’t quite do it … ‘better now than
late or never’ is a bit better as the following see that old tune, ‘ The Big
Hurt’, reaching once again number 1 on the billboard charts. ]
Soros Bailing
Out of U.S. Stock Market Robert Wenzel |
Billionaire trader and political manipulator,George Soros, is clearly not
optimistic.
Celente:
Stock Market Crash Before End of 2010 Gerald Celente believes that the stock market will crash before
the end of 2010 , gold will soar.
Are You Ready
For How Bad It Will Get? Graham Summers | ‘There are
numerous components in the latest GDP number that are extremely suspect. The
vast majority of investors are going to be taken to the cleaners …
Sell / Take Profits while you still can!
100-Year Bonds --- Sign of Trouble?
Monday in the Markets: MOJO Extremes The decline in yields is overdone, gold is
overbought, and crude oil and the euro are oversold. The Dow is not
oversold.The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury tested 2.531 on Friday versus my
quarterly risky level at 2.495. Gold tested $1239.5 last week and today’s risky
level is $1241.7. For Crude oil this week’s pivot is $73.59 with my annual
pivot at $77.05. The euro is below its 50-day simple moving average at 1.2739
this morning. For the Dow today’s value level is 9,983 with the 50-day simple
moving average at 10,303, and weekly and annual pivots at 10.358 and 10,379.
10-Year Note – (2.612) My annual pivot is 2.813 with a weekly pivot at 2.574
and daily risky level at 2.507. My annual value level is 2.999 with quarterly
and semiannual risky levels at 2.495 and 2.249. Note that the decline
in yield is extremely overdone [charts] …
Infowars.com
Poll: Fed Will Push Nation Into Greatest Depression Kurt Nimmo
| Infowars.com readers believe the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve
will push the country into another depression.
Even
Tony Robbins Is Warning That An Economic Collapse Is Coming It seems like
almost everyone is warning of a coming economic collapse these days.
Alex
Jones Exposes Google’s Plan to Dominate the Internet Infowars.com | Google’s
takeover agenda will control the world wide web and force independent media
websites, radio and TV shows out of existence for good.
Ron Paul:
Let the Housing Market Normalize! Dr.
Ron Paul | There seems to be a growing consensus in favor of
abolishing Fannie and Freddie. This is the good news.
Americans
Using Their Rainy Day Savings to Live Rebel Traders | The reality of the ‘real
economy’, as measured by people, not Wall Street, is a deteriorating economy
where any source of funds is fair game to be tapped into.
The Never Ending Recession
Mr. Rosenberg believes we could see a negative GDP print THIS quarter. And
if he’s right that means analysts are far too optimistic about the upcoming
quarter.
Second
Hindenburg Omen Confirmation In As Many Days, Third H.O. Event In One Week Longs
may be forgiven if they are sweating their long positions over the weekend: not
only did we just have a second, and far more solid Hindenburg Omen confirmation
today.
Jim
Rogers: If You Want Your Family To Be Silly Rich In The Future, Then Leave
America And Move To Asia Now As you may know, Jim Rogers moved to Singapore
in 2007, though he maintains a residence in the U.S. as well.
Karzai:
Private contractors ‘looting and stealing,’ working with terrorists Afghan
President Hamid Karzai on Sunday defended his decision to ban private security
contractors from operating in public in Afghanistan, saying many of the
organizations tasked with providing security are engaging in terrorist
activities, working with “Mafia-like” organizations and “looting and stealing
from the Afghan people.”
Housing
Fades as a Means to Build Wealth, Analysts Say Many real estate experts now
believe that home ownership will never again yield rewards like those enjoyed
in the second half of the 20th century.
INSIDER TRANSACTIONS (Washington
Post, August 23, 2010) Stock
market ends down for second straight week (Washington Post) [Yeah! There
should be no surprise here. Such is the scenario that bear markets are made of
and Maierhofer shows the math to prove it (infra), Are You Ready
For How Bad It Will Get? Graham Summers | ‘There are
numerous components in the latest GDP number that are extremely suspect. The
vast majority of investors are going to be taken to the cleaners …
Sell / Take Profits while you still can! ]
Washington
looks tantalizing to New York (Washington Post) [ I’m surprised to see this
‘old news’ here since it’s widely known that the wall street frauds, goldman et
als, have garnered near vampire legendary status by way of their infamous blood
(taxpayers) / treasury draining ways. Tantalized? I’d say consumed. ]
Federal
contractors team up with tech giants (Washington Post) [ Clearly the end of
an innovative tech sector as blood-sucking, treasury draining corporate welfare
artists show them how to get something for nothing but self-perpetuating,
self-created needs that aren’t really needed! ] For traditional government
contractors, the appeal of working with commercially successful companies such
as Google or Apple is clear.