Four U.S. bank failures bring year's total to 7
Do You Believe in the Bernanke Put? [ Yes! I agree with the dire
assessment infra except that it will be more than tears as in that, ‘There Will
Be Blood (film name)’ … and not just in the streets. ] Hui ‘Earlier this week Gluskin Sheff Chief Economist David
Rosenberg wrote an article in the Globe and Mail entitled Why
this rally will end in tears.
Last week, Rosenberg called the current state of the financial market a Wile E.
Coyote market, or a market that seemingly ignores the major macro-economic
risks that could blow up the global economy.
We have an incredible bear market rally on our hands.
History shows that these spasms can go further than anyone thinks. But after
the U.S. market staged a monstrous 80-per-cent-plus rally from its March, 2009,
lows (the most pronounced bounce in such a short time since 1955), it has
become seriously overextended. Meanwhile, practically every pundit is
extrapolating the recent trend into the future because that is the easy thing
to do.
Most investors see only the recent returns; they do not see the nearly
invisible risks. But the risks are there. I recall all too well the 2003-07
bear market rally – yes, that is what it was. It was no long-term bull run such
as 1949-1966 or 1982-2000. It was a classic bear market rally, and it ended in
tears because what drove the market upward was phony wealth generated by a
non-productive asset called housing alongside widespread financial engineering,
which triggered a wave of artificial paper profits. [picture]
He
went on to detail his concerns about the future (which I paraphrase):
When will it be time for QE3?
While I would tend to agree with many of Rosenberg’s concerns about the
macro-economic risks to this upturn, most of the risks in his outline are
economic in nature and could be addressed by central bank action. In such a
case, the question for investors has to be: Were any of these negative outcomes
were to occur, would the Bernanke Fed respond with another round of
quantitative easing? In other words, is there a Bernanke Put in the market?
I believe that the future trajectory of the global economy and asset prices are
highly policy dependent. While I have my opinion, I am not confident enough in
them to be a basis for investment decisions. That’s why I depend on the
discipline of the Inflation-Deflation
Timer Model, as the underlying philosophy is to allow market prices to tell
us the likely direction of policy and price trends, which in turn, allows us to
be more tactical and able to capitalize on the intermediate swings in the
markets’
Market
Outlook: 10 Reasons to Expect a Correction Seeking Delta ‘The
S&P 500 is down a little more than 1% in the last two days despite largely
positive economic data. As Cullen Roche so eloquently stated earlier this month:
But the market isn’t the economy. Main Street isn’t
Wall Street. And the market is a heartless beast that desires one thing and one
thing only- PROFITS!
What follows are the ten reasons (in no particular
order) why I am cautious here, as I see the 1% dip over the last two days to be
the beginning of a larger correction.
1. Another Earnings Season Sell-Off?
During some point in the past four earnings seasons
the S&P 500 has sold off significantly. The trend has been to rally into
earning, then to sell the news. Chart, via WSJ.
click to enlarge
2. Investor Sentiment
Both individual and professional sentiment remains
high, as measured by AAII and
NAAIM, respectively.
Both readings are currently higher than one standard deviation above historical
average bullish readings. Contrary indicator: historically returns are less
favorable when sentiment readings are high.
3. Too Far Too Fast?
The current 22 month rally from the March 2009 lows
has been 90.1% (click on chart to enlarge). The average 24 month rally
to start bull markets is 56.1% with the next closest rally being 65.7% starting
in October 1974. Have we come too far too fast? Chart and data via The
Big Picture. [chart]
4. Low and Declining Put/Call Ratio
Since late 2003, when the 20 day rolling average
put/call ratio has fallen below .55 (roughly 1 standard deviation from average)
the average 30 day returns are -2.2% (-0.7% median) versus a series average of
0.2% (0.8% median). The current 20 day average put/call ratio is .52. The last
time the ratio dropped below .55 (April ’10) the market sold-off roughly 14%
over the next month-and-a-half. Chart
here.
5. Equities Running Out of Breadth?
The ratio of the number of stocks gaining versus the
number declining is struggling to regain 2010 levels. Data
Diary suggests:
that the market has been gaining ground on the backs
of fewer and fewer stocks. We could interpret this as more and more stocks are
bumping up against valuation constraints – or put another way, valuation
multiples can only move so far ahead of earnings growth.
6. Short Selling of Securities in the S&P
500 at 1 Year Low
Per Data
Explorers. Potentially a contrary indicator – have the shorts thrown in the
towel?
7. Tom DeMark Says U.S. Stocks Near Significant Decline.
Mr. DeMark, the creator of a set of Market-timing
indicator, is calling for a decline of “at least 11%.” The last time his
indicators gave a sell signal was mid-2007. Needless to say, the last quarter
of '07 and '08 were not a good time to be in equities.
8. Consensus of 11 Strategists Surveyed
by Bloomberg Says S&P 500 to Rise by 11% in 2011.
Contrary indicator?
9. QE Ending in June, Maybe earlier?
There is some pressure, as the economy recovers, that
QE is no longer needed. I would be surprised if QE2 ends in June, as scheduled,
let alone early. But if it does, watch out.
10. Low Volume Rally
Volume has consistently trended down since the
beginning of the March 2009 rally (click to enlarge).
[chart] ‘
Freaky Friday - Alpha 2 Says 'Cliff Ahead' Davis ‘This is fun, right? We had a nice opportunity to buy the
effing dip yesterday as well as an interesting opportunity to test the
prudishness of the hundreds of web sites that syndicate my articles as I saw
every possible variation of "F’ing" popping up in titles that were
pinged back to me. Social mores aside, the move was so well telegraphed that we
were able to take a non-greedy exit on our QID position – leaving us,
thankfully, with just the DIA
shorts in our $10,000 Portfolio. That means we are going to be able to start
our brand new $25,000-$100,000 Virtual Portfolio right on schedule next week.We
began "Turning $10,000 into $50,000 by January 21st"
on June 11th and we’re not done yet but we’re well over $30,000 – even looking
at our wrong-way (so far) short bet on the Dow. We could have killed that one
yesterday as well but, as today’s title says – we just have to give the old
Alpha 2 a chance to fully play out as we would just hate ourselves if we get
that 500-point drop in the Dow right after we bail on the shorts as that would
be our $50K right there!So up only 200% or so in 7 months is a failure but, to
be fair, we did take a couple of months off as I didn’t like the market enough
in October and November and we already had $26,000 so it didn’t seem worth
risking 260% to make another 100%. In the final month, we decided to "go
for it" but it was a messy way to make another 20% as our overall
premise – that a drop was "right around the corner" – simply
did not pan out. Frankly, looking back at the original 5 picks makes me want to
cry as we could have just left those on the table and gone on vacation! They
were:
So there’s $56,470 in profits for a $66,470 total IF WE HAD JUST LEFT THE DAMNED THING ALONE! [Actually (8:30 update) I realize that the reverse split on YRCW means that it didn't go up that far on an adjusted basis - so maybe we didn't do all that badly compared to leaving it alone.] Oh well, we didn’t leave it alone because when we make a lot of money early (as we did with YRCW) we take it off the table and then we hedge to protect our profits and some of our later plays were not as clever as our first set but $30,000 is nothing to be ashamed of, is it? Still, it’s a very good lesson that we can take with us into the new portfolio and I urge Members to go through the Portfolio tab and review all the moves we made over the past 6 months, as the $25K Portfolio won’t be much different at first since it’s also a small portfolio where we have to manage our small bets very carefully.Aside from today being our target date to close these trades out, I mention the portfolio this morning to remind our Members that we are NOT missing anything by waiting to be sure of the breakout. We waited for a nice dip and what we felt was a solid move up before initiating that $10KP and we had a rocky start as the market did take another 10% dip in late June but that was GOOD news as we hadn’t over-committed and we doubled up on YRCW and pressed some other bets and by October we had $26,000 and decided we’d rather lock in those gains (the purpose of the portfolio was to have a nicer Christmas than planned) than risk our gains right into holiday shopping season. Was our $10KP responsible for America’s strong holiday shopping numbers???We intend to do better in 2011 than we did in 2010, and step one in hitting our $100,000 goal is BEING CAREFUL WITH OUR ENTRIES! As noted in last week’s Stock World Weekly, we have been rolling along this month right in line with the TradeBot’s Alpha 2 pattern that they ran last year, and Elliot sent me an advanced copy of this week’s newsletter where he cleaned up the chart to match out the expiration dates. I believe you will see why I still have a slight concern:[chart] Spooky, isn’t it? Don’t forget, we identified this pattern on the 3rd and we targeted 11,850 on the Dow and 1,285 on the S&P as the adjusted tops of our ranges and, so far, Lloyd and da Boyz have been firing on all cylinders to paint a picture that is just as pretty as the one they painted last January, right into expiration day, when the VIX ran all the way down to 17.50 (from 30 in November) as complacency reached extreme levels. The tip-off at the time, that we were about to drop, was a sudden pop in the VIX on that Friday, back to 17.99, and by the next Tuesday we were back to 18.68 and, by Tuesday the 21st, panic was back in fashion and the VIX finished the day at 22.27 – on the way to 27 the next day. Now THAT’s a sell-off!Is it "different" this time? How much are you willing to bet on that? We’re not betting much, we’re cashing out the $10KP and we’ll see what happens next week, confident that we KNOW that if the market goes down we can make money and if the market goes up we can make money, but we can make so much more if we wait for the right opportunity before placing our bets.As David Fry notes on his DIA chart, POMO does make this time different and it does seem like we are being hard-wired to buy those effing dips. That’s OK, we can accept that if that’s how we have to play it, but please, Lloyd, show us that you are willing to break the pattern first – then we’ll be willing to step a little closer to the edge of the cliff. Forgive us, of course, if the idea of standing next to you at a cliff when we know that you might make a Dollar for pushing us over gives us the creeps – it’s just that, well, we know you!Speaking of people who are willing to sell their country out for a Dollar – GE had excellent earnings and I got my daily "WHUCK?!?" moment this morning when Obama named Jeff Immelt the head of his Economic Advisor Panel, replacing Paul Volcker who quit when he realized this country is totally being controlled by Souless Corporate Interests who are embodied by none other than – Jeff Immelt. Yes, it’s the same Jeff Immelt who just signed a deal to transfer America’s Avionics Technology to China’s State-owned Commercial Aircraft Corp. of China who (and I mean who, not Hu, althogh it’s easy to see how this is confusing) intends to go into direct competition with Boeing (BA), who is not only a top US military supplier but our nation’s largest manufacturing exporter BY A MILE – so much so that Durable Goods have to be measured ex-Aircraft to smooth out their shipping cycle. Boeing sells $68Bn worth of airplanes per year and has over $300Bn worth of orders for the 787 backlogged. The company directly employs 157,000 employees, mainly in the USA and, as they build their planes here and tend to use American parts, they in turn employ roughly 1M more people, accounting for close to 10% of our nation’s total manufacturing employees. As I mentioned when the deal first broke – the technology GE is turning over to China represents 100 years worth of advances in American avionics and, just because GE legally got their hands on the patent rights over the years, that does not give them the right to put a bow around them and hand them to Hu (not "who," this time I literally mean Hu). There’s a word for what GE is doing. It’s right at the tip of my tongue... Oh yes, TREASON!!! Oran’s Dictionary of the Law (1983) defines treason as "…[a]…citizen’s actions to help a foreign government overthrow, make war against, or seriously injure the [parent nation]." Well, the Supreme Court just decided that our Corporations are citizens and have the right to give politicians unlimited bribes contributions as they exercise their right to free speech. Why then do we not hold them to a citizen’s standards when they clearly take actions that are against the best interests of the United States of America? I wonder if a Paulson-like immunity from prosecution comes with Immelt’s job as head of the President’s Economic Council and I also wonder if Hu benefits from having their main man firmly inserted at a desk in the White House? Surely the timing of the appointment to coincide with China’s visit is not a coincidence. As an M&A consultant, I have seen this happen a million times – a company (or country, in this case) is having trouble paying its bills and its balance sheet winds up in breach of loan covenants which prompts a visit from the president of the bank (in this case the PBOC) who wrangles some additional concessions and guarantees and, in extreme cases, the Bank asks that one of their boys be given a seat on the board so they can "keep tabs" on your progress.[picture]That scenario is bad enough when your bank is just a bank but when you borrow money from a competitor and put yourself in that position, you may as well pack it in because you essentially just spilled blood in the shark tank. It’s only a matter of time before all your thrashing around, trying to stay afloat, turns into a selachimorpha version of a piñata game.Is this the beginning of a long and glorious partnership with our Chinese Masters or simply step 2 in the dismantling of America as Immelt presides over the transfer of the rest of America’s Intellectual Property to China so we can cut out the middle (class) man as our Global Corporations expedite their operational shifts more and more overseas? With only two years until the next election – there is the danger that the American people will wake up and demand action so, as happened during the final days of the Soviet empire – we can expect big moves like GE’s partnership with China to come fast and furious over the next 24 months.What are we doing about it? Well, as I told you yesterday, we’re BUYING GE, as well as JPM and, if you can find any more loathsome Corporate bastards who have top-level access to the White House and a pocketful of Congressmen and Judges – we’ll invest in them too because the first step towards working your way up the ladder in a Corporate Kleptocracy is to realize you are living in a Corporate Kleptocracy. Once you accept that – the rest is obvious…So have a great weekend – the news doesn’t matter – we’ll just keep an eye on the Bots and continue to go with the flow, even if we have to hold our noses while we’re riding it out. Be careful out there,- Phil’
Broader Market Gains, Yet Nasdaq Lower Friday and for Week Midnight Trader ‘4:16 PM, Jan 21, 2011 --
GLOBAL SENTIMENT
UPSIDE MOVERS
(+) NOVA sold for $13.25 per share.
(+) GOOG beats with earnings, reshuffles top execs.
(+) GE beats with earnings.
(+) HPQ extends evening gain seen after company says
(+) WMG is reportedly soliciting takeover bids.
(+) TPX beats with Q4 results and guides above Street.
(+) GMXR gains on reserve news.
(+) BYD upgraded.
(+) RVBD started at Overweight at JPMorgan.
(+) ZRAN gains on strong Q4 report.
(+) WAG upgraded.
(+) NVS gets EU approval for MS drug.
(+) CYTX reports positive results in heart attack drug.
(+) LLY says FDA panel does not recommend approving Amyvid.
DOWNSIDE MOVERS
(-) SLB beats Q4 estimates.
(-) BAC misses with Q4 results.
(-) PBCT downgraded.
(-) JNY guides for FY earnings below Street.
(-) VVUS ordered to provide birth defect data for Qnexa to FDA.
(-) BIIB gets negative European opinion on Famprya.
MARKET DIRECTION
Stock averages closed mixed Friday and for the week. GE's (GE) earnings beat lifted the blue-chip Dow,
while Google (GOOG) also gained after its results. Bank of
America (BAC) fell
after its latest results though regional banks gained. The Nasdaq dropped 2.4%
for the week, with the S&P 500 off 0.8% and the DJIA up 0.7%.
No major economic reports were released today though upbeat German economic
data supported European and U.S. shares.
In earnings, shares of General Electric are up more than 5% after the company
reported Q4 EPS of $0.36 per share, four cents ahead of the analyst consensus
on Thomson Reuters. Revenue was $41.4 billion, vs. expectations of $39.9
billion. GE was helped by solid performance of its finance, health care and
transportation units. "Strong performance at GE Capital was also
encouraging," GE CEO Jeff Immelt said in a statement.
Google (GOOG) rose after CEO Eric Schmidt said he is
handing over day-to-day management and his title to Larry Page, one of the two
co-founders of the search-engine giant. Schmidt is remaining at Google as
executive chairman and will concentrate on deal-making and other strategic
initiatives. The company also reported Q4 earnings that beat analysts'
estimates as optimism about the economy led companies to boost spending for
online advertising.
AMD fell after its disappointing results, dragging on the tech-heavy Nasdaq.
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) shares
are higher despite news yesterday that four directors are deciding not to stand
for re-election at the company's next annual meeting in March. The computer
company also is adding an additional seat to the board, increasing the total
number to 13, as part of its efforts to "new insight and perspective"
to the firm.
AstraZeneca (AZN) advised the
U.S. Food and Drug Administration that results of its Brilinta blood thinner
that concerned regulators were likely caused by high-dose aspirin, Bloomberg
reports. AstraZeneca is seeking approval of Brilinta, which concerned health
officials after certain participants did worse on Brilinta than people in other
parts of the world.
Shares of Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack (PBY) are up by double digits on news of a
possible sale of the company. The company is considering strategic options with
Bank of America. (BAC),
according to Bloomberg.
Shares Pfizer (PFE) are tracking lower after Bloomberg
reported that the world's largest drug maker extended its tender offer to
acquire King Pharmaceuticals (KG)
for a third time. The two firms are awaiting U.S. regulatory approval of the
deal, worth $3.6 billion, The offer, for $14.25 a share, is now due to expire
at 5pm on Jan. 28. Upon approval, the acquisition will be the biggest for
Pfizer since its $68 billion buy of Wyeth in 2009.
Crude futures settled modestly lower Friday. Oil for March delivery fell 48
cents, or 0.5%, to $89.11 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That
was oil's lowest settlement since Jan. 7.
February gold futures fell $5.50, or 0.4%, to $1,341 an ounce on the Comex
division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, recovering from much steeper
losses earlier. It's the contract's lowest close since Nov. 17. Gold lost 1.4%
this week.’
Signs
the Market Hypnosis Is Wearing Off
Punching Out: One Year in a Closing Auto Plant
Acrid
Smell of Inflation Starting to Spread Through Global Equity Markets Nyaradi
‘The unmistakable smell of inflationary smoke wafted across world markets
yesterday as inflationary numbers sprang up in economic reports and global bond
markets, spooking investors across the globe.
Starting in
China, the red hot economy grew 9.8% in the 4th Quarter, faster than expected,
and registered a 4.6% inflation rate, prompting fears of further tightening
measures to slow growth and rising prices in that country.
The
Shanghai Composite (SSEC) (FXI) continued to respond, dropping
-2.9% yesterday and bringing its total decline since early November to
approximately -15%.
Food prices (DBA)
have been skyrocketing around the world as inflationary pressures grow,
particularly in the emerging world where a higher percentage of discretionary
spending goes to food and energy than for us in the developed world.
Food riots
and inflationary protests have broken out across North Africa.
Yesterday’s
Philly Fed report was lackluster on the growth front, coming in at 19.3 versus
expected of 20 and prior of 20.8 but it, too, signaled higher prices ahead.
Price increases for inputs as well as firms’ own manufactured
goods are more widespread this month. Fifty-four percent of the firms reported
higher prices for inputs, compared with 52 percent in the previous month. The
prices paid index, which increased 6 points in January, has increased 42 points
over the past four months. (Philadelphia Federal Reserve)
The bond market declined sharply yesterday,
particularly on the long end, (TLT) with the 30 year
rate rising to 4.6%.
Yesterday’s TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected
Securities) auction was lackluster, at best, with the lowest bid to cover
ration (demand) in nearly two years.
However, not all was doom and gloom as the tech
sector continued showing strength as Google (GOOG) and
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) beat earnings expectations.
New unemployment claims declined, leading economic
indicators advanced 1% and existing home sales improved, although they’re still
living in a deep, dark basement of deflationary pricing.
Just take a look around your neighborhood for
confirmation.
So as of yesterday we find ourselves entering a
treacherous zone where the Federal Reserve continues its bond buying program in
an effort to lower interest rates but instead we see interest rates rising both
at home and around the world.
The acrid smell of inflation is starting to spread around
the world and likely is behind these rate increases as the “bond vigilantes”
flex their muscles.
Combined with a still extremely fragile recovery, at
least in the developed world, one can smell the whiff of smoke in the
overcrowded theatre of global equities markets. We all know that inflation is
bad news for equities and for economic growth, and one can only hope that
nobody yells “fire” in this overcrowded and nervous room.’
Bank
of America posts Q4 loss on mortgage problems (Reuters)
Stock Market Becomes Short Attention Span Theater Of Trading
12
Economic Collapse Scenarios That We Could Potentially See In 2011 What
could cause an economic collapse in 2011? Well, unfortunately there are quite a
few “nightmare scenarios” that could plunge the entire globe into another
massive financial crisis.
The Economic Collapse Jan
20, 2011 ‘What could cause an economic collapse in 2011? Well, unfortunately
there are quite a few “nightmare scenarios” that could plunge the entire globe
into another massive financial crisis. The United States, Japan and most
of the nations in Europe are absolutely drowning in debt. The Federal
Reserve continues to play reckless games with the U.S. dollar. The price
of oil is skyrocketing and the global price of food just hit a new record
high. Food riots are already breaking out all over the world.
Meanwhile, the rampant fraud and corruption going on in world financial markets
is starting to be exposed and the whole house of cards could come crashing down
at any time. Most Americans have no idea that a horrific economic
collapse could happen at literally any time. There is no way that all of
this debt and all of this financial corruption is sustainable. At some
point we are going to reach a moment of “total system failure”.
So will it be
soon? Let’s hope not. Let’s certainly hope that it does not happen
in 2011. Many of us need more time to prepare. Most of our families
and friends need more time to prepare. Once this thing implodes there
isn’t going to be an opportunity to have a “do over”. We simply will not
be able to put the toothpaste back into the tube again.
So we had all
better be getting prepared for hard times. The following are 12 economic
collapse scenarios that we could potentially see in 2011….
#1 U.S. debt could become a massive crisis at any
moment. China is saying all of the right things at the moment, but many
analysts are openly worried about what could happen if China suddenly
decides to start dumping all of the U.S. debt that they have accumulated.
Right now about the only thing keeping U.S. government finances going is the
ability to borrow gigantic amounts of money at extremely low interest
rates. If anything upsets that paradigm, it could potentially have
enormous consequences for the entire world financial system.
#2 Speaking of threats to the global financial system,
it turns out that “quantitative easing 2″ has had the exact opposite
effect that Ben Bernanke planned for it to have. Bernanke insisted that
the main goal of QE2 was to lower interest rates, but instead all it has done
is cause interest rates to go up substantially.
If Bernanke this incompetent or is he trying to mess everything up on purpose?
#3 The debt bubble that the entire global economy is
based on could burst at any time and throw the whole planet into chaos. According
to a new report from the World Economic Forum, the total amount of credit
in the world increased from $57 trillion in 2000 to $109 trillion in
2009. The WEF says that now the world is going to need another $100
trillion in credit to support projected “economic growth” over the next
decade. So is this how the new “global economy” works? We just keep
doubling the total amount of debt every decade?
#4 As the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve
continue to pump massive amounts of new dollars into the system, the floor
could fall out from underneath the U.S. dollar at any time. The truth is
that we are already starting to see inflation really accelerate and everyone
pretty much acknowledges that official U.S. governments figures for inflation are
an absolute joke. According
to one new study, the cost of college tuition has risen 286% over the last
20 years, and the cost of “hospital, nursing-home and adult-day-care services”
rose 269% during those same two decades. All of this happened during a
period of supposedly “low” inflation. So what are price increases going
to look like when we actually have “high” inflation?
#5 One of the primary drivers of global inflation
during 2011 could be the price of oil. A large number of economists are
now projecting that the price of oil could surge well
past $100 dollars a barrel in 2011. If that happens, it is going to
put significant pressure on the price of almost everything else in the entire
global economy. In fact, as
I have explained previously, the higher the price of oil goes, the faster
the U.S. economy will decline.
#6 Food inflation is already so bad in some areas of
the globe that it is setting off massive food riots
in nations such as Tunisia and Algeria. In fact, there have been reports
of people setting themselves on fire all
over the Middle East as a way to draw attention to how desperate they
are. So what is going to happen if global food prices go up another 10 or
20 percent and food riots spread literally all over the globe during 2011?
#7 There are persistent
rumors that simply will
not go away of massive physical gold and silver shortages. Demand for
precious metals has never been higher. So what is going to happen when
many investors begin to absolutely insist on physical delivery of their
precious metals? What is going to happen when the fact that far, far, far
more “paper gold” and “paper silver” has been sold than has ever actually
physically existed in the history of the planet starts to come out? What
would that do to the price of gold and silver?
#8 The U.S. housing industry could plunge the U.S.
economy into another recession at any time. The real estate market is
absolutely flooded with homes and virtually nobody is buying. This
massive oversupply of homes means that the construction of new homes has fallen
off a cliff. In 2010, only
703,000 single family, multi-family and manufactured homes were
completed. This was a new record low, and it was down 17% from the
previous all-time record which had just been set in 2009.
#9 A combination of extreme weather and disease could
make this an absolutely brutal year for U.S. farmers. This winter we have
already seen thousands of new cold weather and snowfall records set across the
United States. Now there is some very disturbing news emerging out of
Florida of an “incurable
bacteria” that is ravaging citrus crops all over Florida. Is there a
reason why so many bad things are happening all of a sudden?
#10 The municipal bond crisis could go “supernova” at
any time. Already, investors are bailing out of bonds at a frightening
pace. State and local government debt is now sitting at an all-time high
of 22
percent of U.S. GDP. According to Meredith Whitney, the municipal
bond crisis that we are facing is a gigantic threat to our financial system….
“It has
tentacles as wide as anything I’ve seen. I think next to housing this is the
single most important issue in the United States and certainly the largest
threat to the U.S. economy.”
Former Los Angeles mayor Richard Riordan is convinced
that things are so bad that literally 90% of our states and cities could go
bankrupt over the next five years….
#11 Of course on top of everything else, the quadrillion
dollar derivatives bubble could burst at any time. Right now we are
watching the greatest financial
casino in the history of the globe spin around and around and around and
everyone is hoping that at some point it doesn’t stop. Today, most money
on Wall Street is not made by investing in good business ideas. Rather,
most money on Wall Street is now made by making the best bets.
Unfortunately, at some point the casino is going to come crashing down and the
game will be over.
#12 The biggest wildcard of all is war. The Korean
peninsula came closer to war in 2010 than it had in decades. The Middle
East could literally explode at any time. We live in a world where a
single weapon can take out an entire city in an instant. All it would
take is a mid-size war or a couple of weapons of mass destruction to throw the
entire global economy into absolute turmoil.
Once again,
let us hope that none of these economic collapse scenarios happens in 2011.
However, we
have got to realize that we can’t keep dodging these bullets forever.
As bad as 2010
was, the truth is that it went about as good as any of us could have
hoped. Things are still pretty stable and times are still pretty good
right now.
But instead of
using these times to “party”, we should be using them to prepare.
A really, really vicious economic storm is coming and it is going to be a complete and total nightmare. Get ready, hold on tight, and say your prayers.’
Perception vs. Reality: Four Reasons to Remain Cautious on U.S.
Equities [ Hey, Abbott … That’s Lou
Costello calling him from the other side … Wake up! … Just kidding … but I’m
not kidding when I say that contrary to Abbott’s view, infra, if you’re not a
successful market timer you should rethink your position as an equity investor.
Moreover, in contradistinction to Mr. Abbott’s implication, if you’re not a
successful speculator (there are very few), you should rethink your position as
a short seller: reason…, you could be wiped out, lose more than your principal,
forced to cover (that’s why
the same is considered a contrary market indicator, particularly in these
manipulated, contrived markets). When I did my MBA thesis (1977, NYU, GBA,
Eve.Prog., Finance), a review of the data revealed even then (and much more so
now with computer programmed market manipulation) that the market remained
biased / propped up (artificially, especially now with computerized
manipulation) to the upside for far longer periods of time than for the
downside which meant that dollar-cost averaging (through regular, periodic
investment, for example), meant you were accumulating shares at higher prices
generally for longer periods of time skewing the average cost to the upside
(dollar-cost-averaging in declining markets was ok if analysis / forecast saw
resurgence based on fundamentals - now absent – which is timing, as even senile
wall street / gov’t shill Buffet would attest, that ‘greedy when others are
fearful thing’). Abbott discusses perception which is the psychological factor
involved in security evaluation / analysis; but investors need not and should
become nuts themselves, particularly when as now, the inmates are running the
asylum. ] Abbott ‘Perception
determines short-term market movements. The difference between perception and
reality determines the direction of major market trends. Though I generally try
to avoid making macro prognostications, I believe bottom-up analysis can be
informative about the current level of stock prices. I want to share what my
recent work tells me about where stocks are (and where they might be headed). I
will outline some various nuggets of collective wisdom that are taken for
granted right now by stock bulls, and I will attempt to demonstrate how reality
is likely to differ from these perceptions.
First, a
disclaimer. This is not a market timing call. At all times, I stay away from
market timing predictions. I think that's a loser's game in the long run. Even
if I'm correct about the discrepancies between the following perceptions and
realities, there's no saying when people will change their minds or shift their
focuses. That said, let's dive in.
Perception
vs. Reality #1
Perception: Low Interest Rates, Questionable Bond Outlook Means Stocks are
Attractive
Reality: Interest Rates Are Being Artificially and Deliberately Manipulated
It's no secret
that the Federal Reserve's low interest rate policy and quantitative easing
efforts have held interest rates very low for very long. However, when people
talk about stock market implications of bond yields, they rarely mention the
fact that bond yields are artificially low. In an unmanipulated
market, bond prices and stock valuations should be related, but I regard that
connection as highly dubious right now. Investors who say that stocks deserve
higher multiples (lower earnings yields) because bond yields are so low may
well be setting themselves up for disappointing returns/frustrating losses when
bond prices normalize. Again, this isn't a market timing call, and yields may
remain low for quite some time. But, eventually this discrepancy will correct
itself, and stock performance is likely to suffer at that time.
Perception
vs. Reality #2
Perception: Earnings Growth Has Been Strong and Will Remain That Way
Reality: Top-Line Growth Will Have to Pick Up; Cost-Cutting has Run Its
Course
Earnings growth
has certainly been robust, but much of the strength has come from companies
running lean cost structures and wringing as much efficiency as possible out of
their employees and their assets. Though the recession has ended, the economy
is not yet healthy enough to fuel strong sales growth. Companies can only boost
profits by cutting costs and increasing productivity for so long. Therefore,
top-line growth will have to play a larger role going forward than it has over
the past 4-6 quarters. Whether or not economic growth is strong enough to drive
revenue increases is unsure, but the current level of stock prices undoubtedly
assumes it is. Any stagnation of the recovery and concomitant sluggish sales
will likely hit stock prices.
Perception
vs. Reality #3
Perception: European Debt Crisis Drives Short-Term Volatility, but It's Not
a Long-Term Concern
Reality: Crisis May Be a Harbinger of What's to Come in the U.S. if States,
the Feds Don't Improve Balance Sheets
So far, turmoil
in Greece and Ireland has served only as a temporary headwind to U.S. stocks.
In keeping with the investment world's increasingly short-term focus, people
seem more concerned with what fiscal crises in Europe mean for U.S. stocks over
the coming days and months than with what they might mean down the road. I
believe that this interpretation misses the mark. Since the U.S. fiscal
situtation is generally considered to be stronger than that in many European
countries, U.S. federal and municipal debt issuance has been relatively smooth,
and interest rates have only risen modestly. If the U.S. doesn't get serious
about its fiscal woes, eventually the crisis will arrive on American shores.
There's no way of telling when this might happen, but the current level of
stock prices seems to imply that it never will.
Here's the
problem with that. To fix the federal balance sheet and/or to improve state and
municipal balance sheets, legislators will have to raise taxes and/or cut
spending. Tax hikes and spending cuts both reduce consumer spending. This hurts
growth. There's no way around this. Stocks can certainly continue to rise for
some time, but austerity will be bearish if/when it comes. If it doesn't come,
we're in for a much bigger crisis some time down the road.
Perception
vs. Reality #4
Perception: Everywhere You Look, You See Good Companies at Cheap Prices
Reality: It's Hard to Find Genuine Bargains, but There are Intriguing Short
Prospects Everywhere
There is no
shortage of stock market commentators who claim that they see bargains
everywhere they look. Perhaps I'm not looking in the right places, but I've
been having a difficult and increasingly impossible time finding good companies
at reasonable prices. I use similar criteria to assess long and short
investments, and I find intriguing shorts in lots of sectors right now. This
tells me that valuations are stretched. Certainly they can become more so
before we get a selloff, but every day that stocks rally, they get more
expensive.
I've written on Seeking
Alpha about a number of stocks which I regard as expensive (CRM, OPEN, GMCR), and take my word for it:
there are plenty more than these whose shares I do not want to own at present
levels. A few weeks ago, I also mused about the Facebook-Goldman deal and
argued that this valuation is indicative of excessive investor enthusiasm.
Bargains are hard to find, and as valuations go up, so does positive sentiment.
While this is not a prediction of an impending correction or bear market, it is
a message of caution for people who think stocks are cheap right now.
All that said, I always try to consider both sides of any investment issue, and there are some reasons for optimism. Job growth has shown signs of improvement, and some economic data have been increasingly (though not uniformly) positive. The Federal Reserve remains accommodative, and I'm skeptical about whether or not there is political will for austerity. For these reasons, stocks could continue onward and upward. That said, I see too many reasons for caution, and investors are turning a blind eye to these concerns as their complacency rises.’
In a column
last week, Myerson points out that the devastation of The Great Recession has
fallen disproportionately on the blue collar population, those without a
college degree. And he traces the rolling over of median family income in this
century, not just in the downturn, but since the turn of the century. Even at
the peak, in 2007, median family income was less than in 2000.
What Meyerson
doesn't point out is that average incomes have faired better in the 21st
century and in all of the past 50 years. In fact, average family income has
risen more than 2.5 times as much and median income over the last 30 years. Why
is this important? Because the more there is a fat tail of ever higher incomes
for a few, the greater the difference between average and median income
becomes.
Myerson says:
The great sociologist William
Julius Wilson has long argued that the key to the
unraveling of the lives of the African American poor was the decline in the
number of "marriageable males" as work disappeared from the inner
city. Much the same could now be said of working-class whites in neighborhoods
that may not look like the ghettos of Cleveland or Detroit but in which
productive economic activity is increasingly hard to find.
This grim new reality has yet to inform our debate
over how to come back from this mega-recession. Those who believe our downturn
is cyclical argue that job-creating public spending can restore us to
prosperity, while those who believe it's structural - that we have too many
carpenters, say, and not enough nurses - believe that we should leave things be
while American workers acquire new skills and enter different lines of work.
But there's a third way to look at the recession: that it's institutional, that
it's the consequence of the decisions by leading banks and corporations to stop
investing in the job-creating enterprises that were the key to broadly shared
prosperity.
Since Meyerson has chosen income disparity as a
cornerstone of his argument, let's look at how incomes have grown over the last
50 years. These are shown in the following graph, not adjusted for inflation.
click to enlarge images [chart]
Real median income and average income seem to grow
similarly in the 1950s and 1960s, the growth of average income starts to pull
away in the mid-1960s and appears to continue to gain gound for the the next
40+ years. The more average income deviates from median income the more money
is found in the high income tail on the distribution curve. This is often
called a "fat tail", which is very appropriate in this discussion
because that is where the fat cats are. The fat tail has not gotten so because
ten times as many people equaled the incomes of the former fat cats, but more
because a few fat cats have received 10 times the income. This is exemplified
by the often quoted statistic that average CEO salaries were 40x average worker
pay 50 years ago and today are more like 400x.
The change income distribution that seems to be
appearing in the above graph becomes more apparent in the following graph where
real income gains are shown for the last six decades starting with the ten
years from 1949 - 1959 (the 1950s) and ending with 1999 - 2009 (the 2000s). [chart]
The 1950s and 60s were real boom years. Starting with
the 1970s a lower level of income growth was established, but even that lower
level could not be maintained in the 2000s.
After the 1950s every decade has seen average real
income grow more than the median. The fat tail has gotten fatter over the past
half century in every decade, without exception. Yes the average did decline in
the 2000s, but the median declined 76% more!
The most dramatic pattern of change is evident when
the data is divided into two halves: 1949 to 1979 and 1979 - 2009. This is done
in the following graph: [chart]
For thirty years after World War II the wealth of the
country increased in a balanced manner. The average income containing the
greater contribution from the top earners of the day, grew at a rate very
similar to the income growth of the broader population, represented by the
median.
Yes there were "fat cats" and they had
significantly larger incomes than the bulk of the population. And these top
incomes grew over those three decades, but at almost the same rate as the
majority of the populace.
Then something happened. From 1979-2009 it appears
that the American pie suddenly got smaller. In the later three decades the real
median income growth was less than 10% of the rate seen from 1949 to 1979. And
as the pie got smaller, the fat cats took a much larger share. The average
income grew at a rate 254% that of the median income. You might say that, as
the cow gave less milk, the top of the economic ladder skimmed more and more
cream off the top.
Meyerson identifies the force majuere to be
corporate America:
Our multinational companies still invest, of course -
just not at home. A study by the Business
Roundtable and the U.S. Council Foundation found that the
share of the profits of U.S.-based multinationals that came from their foreign
affiliates had increased from 17 percent in 1977 and 27 percent in 1994 to 48.6
percent in 2006. As the companies' revenue from abroad has increased, their
dependence on American consumers has diminished. The equilibrium among
production, wages and purchasing power - the equilibrium that Henry Ford
famously recognized when he upped his workers' pay to an unheard-of $5 a day in
1913 so they could afford to buy the cars they made, the equilibrium that
became the model for 20th-century American capitalism - has been shattered.
Making and selling their goods abroad, U.S. multinationals can slash their
workforces and reduce their wages at home while retaining their revenue and
increasing their profits. And that's exactly what they've done.
Meyerson doesn't get into some of the other areas
that might be brought to bear on the current condition of the American economy:
Part of the problem is that Americans have fallen
into the way of the easiest path, where, either by credit card or by making
quick trades, the desires of the moment are satisfied with no seemingly current
cost.
It seems that few want to think about the needs of
tomorrow. This is true starting with the masses who kiss off the idea of
working hard in school to prepare for what they will need 20 years down the
road. This is also true of the "capitalist" who finds that skimming a
few percent off each of many deals a year to get quick, large quarterly returns
is much easier than investing and building something that will will make much
larger returns extending over decades and producing things of real economic
utility.
There are a number of things that Meyerson does not
address, but if you want to hit one nail at a time, I think he has picked the
baddest nail in the plank. He finishes his column thusly:
Our economic woes, then, are not simply cyclical or
structural. They are also - chiefly - institutional, the consequence of U.S.
corporate behavior that has plunged us into a downward cycle of
underinvestment, underemployment and under-consumption. Our solutions must be
similarly institutional, requiring, for starters, the seating of public and
worker representatives on corporate boards. Short of that, there will be no real
prospects for reversing America's downward mobility.
If we were to address all the other issues I
mentioned previously and did not address the institutional problem Meterson has
identified, we would not ultimately solve our economic puzzle.’
20
Shocking New Economic Records That Were Set In 2010 2010 was quite a year,
wasn’t it? 2010 will be remembered for a lot of things, but for those living in
the United States, one of the main things that last year will be remembered for
is economic decline…The Economic
Collapse Jan 14, 2011 ‘2010 was
quite a year, wasn’t it? 2010 will be remembered for a lot of things, but
for those living in the United States, one of the main things that last year
will be remembered for is economic decline. The number of foreclosure
filings set a new record, the number of home repossessions set a new record,
the number of bankruptcies went up again, the number of Americans that became
so discouraged that they simply quit looking for work reached a new all-time
high and the number of Americans on food stamps kept setting a brand new record
every single month. Meanwhile, U.S. government debt reached record highs,
state government debt reached record highs and local government debt reached
record highs. What a mess! In fact, even many of the “good”
economic records that were set during 2010 were indications of underlying
economic weakness. For example, the price of gold set an all-time record
during 2010, but one of the primary reasons for the increase in the price of
gold was that the U.S. dollar was rapidly losing value. Most Americans
had been hoping that 2010 would be the beginning of better times, but
unfortunately economic conditions just kept getting worse.
So will things
improve in 2011? That would be nice, but at this point there are not a
whole lot of reasons to be optimistic about the economy. The truth is
that we are trapped in a period of long-term economic decline and we are now
paying the price for decades of horrible decisions.
Amazingly,
many of our politicians and many in the mainstream media have declared that
“the recession is over” and that the U.S. economy is steadily improving now.
Well, if
anyone tries to tell you that the economy got better in 2010, just show them
the statistics below. That should shut them up for a while.
The following
are 20 new economic records that were set during 2010….
#1 An all-time record of 2.87
million U.S. households received a foreclosure filing in 2010.
#2 The number of homes that were actually repossessed reached
the 1 million mark for the first time ever during 2010.
#3 The price of gold moved above $1400 an ounce for the
first time ever during 2010.
#4 According to the American Bankruptcy Institute,
approximately 1.53
million consumer bankruptcy petitions were filed in 2010, which was up 9
percent from 1.41 million in 2009. This was the highest number of
personal bankruptcies we have seen since the U.S. Congress substantially
tightened U.S. bankruptcy law several years ago.
#5 At one point during 2010, the average time needed to
find a job in the United States had risen to an all-time record of 35.2 weeks.
#6 Back in 1970, 25 percent of all jobs in the United
States were manufacturing jobs. Today, only 9 percent of the jobs in the
United States are manufacturing jobs, which is believed to be a new record low.
#7 The number of Americans working part-time jobs “for
economic reasons” was the highest it has been in at least five decades
during 2010.
#8 The number of American workers that are so
discouraged that they have given up searching for work reached an all-time high near the end of 2010.
#9 Government spending continues to set new all-time
records. In fact, at the moment the U.S. government is spending
approximately 6.85 million
dollars every single minute.
#10 The number of Americans on food stamps surpassed
43 million by the end of 2010. This was a new all-time record, and
government officials fully expect the number of Americans enrolled in the
program to continue to increase throughout 2011.
#11 The number of Americans on Medicaid surpassed 50
million for the first time ever in 2010.
#12 The U.S. Census Bureau originally announced that
43.6 million Americans are now living in poverty and according to them that was
the highest number of Americans living in poverty that they had ever
recorded in 51 years of
record-keeping. But now the Census Bureau says that they
miscalculated and that the real number of poor Americans is actually 47.8 million.
#13 According to the FDIC, 157
banks failed during 2010. That was the highest number of bank
failures that the United States has experienced in any single year during the
past decade.
#14 The Federal Reserve brought in a record $80.9 billion in profits during
2010. They returned $78.4 billion of that to the U.S. Treasury, but the
real story is that thanks to the Federal Reserve’s continual debasement of our
currency, the U.S. dollar was
worth less in 2010 than it ever had been before.
#15 It is projected that the major financial firms on
Wall Street will pay out an all-time record of $144 billion in compensation for
2010.
#16 Americans now owe more than $881 billion on student loans,
which is a new all-time record.
#17 In July, sales of new homes in the United
States declined to the lowest level
ever recorded.
#18 According to Zillow, U.S. housing prices have now
declined a
whopping 26 percent since their peak in June 2006. Amazingly, this is
even farther than house prices fell during the Great Depression. From
1928 to 1933, U.S. housing prices only fell 25.9 percent.
#19 State and local government debt reached at an
all-time record of 22 percent of U.S. GDP during 2010.
#20 The U.S. national debt has surpassed the 14 trillion
dollar mark for the first time ever and it is being projected that it will
soar well past 15 trillion during 2011.
There are some
people that have a hard time really grasping what statistics actually
mean. For people like that, often pictures and charts are much more
effective. Well, that is one reason I like to include pictures and graphs
in many of my articles, and below I have posted my favorite chart from this
past year. It shows the growth of the U.S. national debt from 1940 until
today. I honestly don’t know how anyone can look at this chart and still
be convinced that our nation is not headed for a complete financial meltdown….[chart]
14 Eye Opening Statistics Which Reveal Just How
Dramatically The U.S. Economy Has Collapsed Since 2007 Most
Americans have become so accustomed to the “new normal” of continual economic
decline that they don’t even remember how good things were just a few short
years ago. ‘The Economic Collapse Jan 10, 2011
’Most Americans have become so accustomed to the “new normal” of continual
economic decline that they don’t even remember how good things were just a few
short years ago. Back in 2007, unemployment was very low, good jobs were
much easier to get, far fewer Americans were living in poverty or enrolled in
welfare programs and government finances were in much better shape. Of
course most of this prosperity was fueled by massive amounts of debt, but at
least times were better. Unfortunately, things have really deteriorated
over the last several years. Since 2007, unemployment has skyrocketed,
foreclosures have set new all-time records, personal bankruptcies have soared
and U.S. government debt has gotten completely and totally out of
control. Poll after poll has shown that Americans are now far less
optimistic about the future than they were in 2007. It is almost as if
the past few years have literally sucked the hope out of millions upon millions
of Americans.
Sadly,
our economic situation is continually getting worse. Every month the
United States loses more factories. Every month the United States loses
more jobs. Every month the collective wealth of U.S. citizens continues
to decline. Every month the federal government goes into even more
debt. Every month state and local governments go into even more debt.
Unfortunately,
things are going to get even worse in the years ahead. Right now we look
back on 2005, 2006 and 2007 as “good times”, but in a few years we will look
back on 2010 and 2011 as “good times”.
We
are in the midst of a long-term economic decline, and the very bad economic
choices that we have been making as a nation for decades are now starting to
really catch up with us.
So
as horrible as you may think that things are now, just keep in mind that things
are going to continue to deteriorate in the years ahead.
But
for the moment, let us remember how far we have fallen over the past few
years. The following are 14 eye opening statistics which reveal just how
dramatically the U.S. economy has collapsed since 2007….
#1
In November 2007, the official U.S. unemployment rate was just 4.7
percent. Today, the official U.S. unemployment rate is 9.4 percent.
#2
In November 2007, 18.8% of unemployed Americans had been out of work for 27
weeks or longer. Today that percentage is up to 41.9%.
#3
As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had been
unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over
6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or
longer.
#4
Nearly 10 million Americans now receive unemployment insurance, whichis
almost four times as many as were receiving it back
in 2007.
#5
More than half of the U.S. labor force (55 percent) has “suffered a spell of
unemployment, a cut in pay, a reduction in hours or have become involuntary
part-time workers” since the “recession” began in December 2007.
#6
According to one analysis, the United States has lost a total of approximately
10.5 million jobs since 2007.
#7
As 2007 began, only 26 million Americans were on food stamps. Today, an
all-time record of 43.2 million Americans are enrolled in the
food stamp program.
#8
In 2007, the U.S. government held a total of $725 billion in mortgage
debt. As of the middle of 2010, the U.S. government held a total of $5.148 trillion in mortgage debt.
#9
In the year prior to the “official” beginning of the most recent recession in
2007, the IRS filed just 684,000 tax liens against U.S. taxpayers. During
2010, the IRS filed over a million tax liens against U.S.
taxpayers.
#10
From the year 2000 through the year 2007, there were 27 bank failures in the
United States. From 2008 through 2010, there were 314 bank failures in the United States.
#11
According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the number
of U.S. families with children living in homeless sheltersincreased from 131,000 to 170,000 between 2007
and 2009.
#12
In 2007, one poll found that 43 percent of Americans were living “paycheck to
paycheck”. Sadly, according to a survey released very close to the end of
2010, approximately 55 percent
of all Americans are now living paycheck to paycheck.
#13
In 2007, the “official” federal budget deficit was just 161 billion
dollars. In 2010, the “official” federal budget deficit was approximately 1.3 trillion dollars.
#14
As 2007 began, the U.S. national debt was just under 8.7 trillion
dollars. Today, the U.S. national debt has just surpassed 14 trillion dollars and it
continues to soar into the stratosphere.
So
is there any hope that we can turn all of this around?
Unfortunately,
the massive amount of debt that we have piled up as a society over the last
several decades has made that impossible.
If
you add up all forms of debt (government debt, business debt, individual debt),
it comes to approximately 360 percent of GDP. It is the biggest debt
bubble in the history of the world.
If
the federal government and our state governments stop borrowing and spending so
much money, our economy would collapse. But if they keep borrowing and
spending so much money they will continually make the eventual economic
collapse even worse.
We
are in the terminal stages of the most horrific debt spiral the world has ever
seen, and when the debt spiral gets stopped the house of cards is going to
finally come down for good.
So
enjoy these times while you still have them. Yes, today is not nearly as
prosperous as 2007 was, but today is most definitely a whole lot better than
2015 or 2020 is going to be.
Sadly,
we could have avoided this financial disaster completely if only we had
listened more carefully to those that founded this nation. Once upon a
time, Thomas Jefferson said
the following….
I wish it were possible to obtain a single amendment to our Constitution. I would be willing to depend on that alone for the reduction of the administration of our government to the genuine principles of its Constitution; I mean an additional article, taking from the federal government the power of borrowing.’
The Economic Collapse
Dec 17, 2010
The financial
collapse that so many of us have been anticipating is seemingly closer then
ever. Over the past several weeks, there have been a host of ominous
signs for the U.S. economy. Yields on U.S. Treasuries have moved up
rapidly and Moody’s is publicly warning that it may have to cut the rating on
U.S. government debt soon. Mortgage rates are also moving up
aggressively. The euro and the U.S. dollar both look incredibly
shaky. Jobs continue to be shipped out of the United States at a
blistering pace as our politicians stand by and do nothing. Confidence in
U.S. government debt around the globe continues to decline. State and
local governments that are drowning in debt across the United States are
savagely cutting back on even essential social services and are coming up with
increasingly “creative” ways of getting more money out of all of us.
Meanwhile, tremor after tremor continues to strike the world financial
system. So does this mean that we have almost reached a tipping
point? Is the world on the verge of a major financial collapse?
Let’s hope
not, but with each passing week the financial news just seems to get eve
worse. Not only is U.S. government debt spinning wildly toward a breaking
point, but many U.S. states (such as California) are in such horrific financial
condition that they are beginning to resemble banana republics.
But it is not
just the United States that is in trouble. Nightmarish debt problems in
Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Belgium and several other European
nations threaten to crash the euro at any time. In fact, many economists
are now openly debating which will collapse first – the euro or the U.S.
dollar.
Sadly, this is
the inevitable result of constructing a global financial system on debt.
All debt bubbles eventually collapse. Currently we are living in the
biggest debt bubble in the history of the world, and when this one bursts it is
going to be a disaster of truly historic proportions.
So will we
reach a tipping point soon? Well, the following are 25 signs that the
financial collapse is rapidly getting closer….
#1 The official U.S. unemployment rate has not been
beneath 9 percent since
April 2009.
#2 According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there are
currently 6.3
million vacant homes in the United States that are either for sale or for
rent.
#3 It is being projected that the U.S. trade deficit
with China could hit 270 billion dollars
for the entire year of 2010.
#4 Back in 2000, 7.2 percent of blue collar workers
were either unemployed or underemployed. Today that figure is up
to 19.5 percent.
#5 The Chinese government has accumulated approximately
$2.65 trillion in
total foreign exchange reserves. They have drained this wealth from the
economies of other nations (such as the United States) and instead of
reinvesting all of it they are just sitting on much of it. This is
creating tremendous imbalances in the global economy.
#6 Since the year 2000, we have lost 10% of our middle class jobs. In the
year 2000 there were approximately 72 million middle class jobs in the United
States but today there are only about 65 million middle class jobs.
#7 The United States now employs about the same number
of people in manufacturing as
it did back in 1940. Considering the fact that we had 132 million
people living in this country in 1940 and that we have well over 300 million
people living in this country today, that is a very sobering statistic.
#8 According to CoreLogic, U.S. housing prices have now
declined for
three months in a row.
#9 The average rate on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage soared
11 basis points just this past week. As mortgage rates continue to
push higher it is going to make it even more difficult for American families to
afford homes.
#10 22.5 percent of all residential mortgages in the United
States were in negative equity as of the end of the third quarter
of 2010.
#11 The U.S. monetary base has
more than doubled since the beginning of the most recent recession.
#12 U.S. Treasury yields have been rising steadily
during the 4th quarter of 2010 and
recently hit a six-month high.
#13 Incoming governor Jerry Brown is scrambling to find
$29 billion more to cut from the California state budget. The
following quote from Brown about the desperate condition of California
state finances is not going to do much to inspire confidence in California’s
financial situation around the globe….
“We’ve been living in fantasy land. It is much worse
than I thought. I’m shocked.”
#14
24.3
percent of the residents of El Centro, California are currently unemployed.
#15
The average home in Merced, California has declined in value by
63 percent over the past four years.
#16
Detroit Mayor Dave Bing has come up with a new way to save money. He
wants to cut 20
percent of Detroit off from essential social services such as road repairs,
police patrols, functioning street lights and garbage collection.
#17
The second most dangerous city in the United States – Camden, New Jersey – is
about to lay off about
half its police in a desperate attempt to save money.
#18
In 2010, 55
percent of Americans between the ages of 60 and 64 were in the labor
market. Ten years ago, that number was just 47 percent. More older
Americans than ever find that they have to keep working just to survive.
#19
Back in 1998, the United States had 25 percent of the world’s high-tech export
market and China had just 10 percent. Ten years later, the United States had
less than 15 percent and China’s share had soared to 20 percent.
#20
The U.S. government budget deficit increased to a whopping $150.4 billion last
month, which represented the biggest November budget deficit on record.
#21
The U.S. government is somehow going to have to roll over existing debt and
finance new debt that
is equivalent to 27.8 percent of GDP in 2011.
#22
The United States had been the leading consumer of energy on the globe for
about 100 years, but this past summer China took over the number one spot.
#23
According to an absolutely stunning new poll, 40 percent of all U.S. doctors plan to bail out of the
profession over the next three years.
#24
As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had been
unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over
6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.
#25
All over the United States, local governments have begun instituting “police
response fees”. For example, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has come up
with a plan under which a
fee of $365 would be charged if police are called to respond to an
automobile accident where no injuries are involved. If there are injuries
as a result of the crash that is going to cost extra.
As you examine
the long-term trends, you quickly come to realize that the U.S. is trapped in
an endless spiral of debt, the middle class is being wiped out, the U.S. dollar
is being destroyed and America is rapidly becoming a post-industrial wasteland.
Posted below are
16 nightmarish economic trends to watch carefully in 2011. It is becoming
exceedingly apparent that unless something is done rapidly we are heading for
an economic collapse of unprecedented magnitude….
#1 Do you want to see something scary? Just check
out the chart below. Since the beginning of the economic downturn, the
U.S. monetary base has more than doubled. But don’t worry – Federal
Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has promised us that this could never cause
inflation. In fact, Bernanke says that we need to inject even more
dollars into the economy. So if you are alarmed by the chart below, you
are just being irrational according to Bernanke….
#2 Thousands of our factories, millions of our jobs and
hundreds of billions of dollars of our national wealth continue to be shipped
overseas. In 1985, the U.S. trade deficit with China was 6 million dollars
for the entire year. In the month of August
alone, the U.S. trade deficit with China was over 28 billion
dollars. Nobel economist Robert W. Fogel of the University of Chicago
is projecting that the Chinese economy will be three times larger than the U.S. economy by the
year 2040 if current trends continue.
#3 The United States is rapidly becoming a
post-industrial wasteland. Back in 1959, manufacturing represented 28
percent of all U.S. economic output. In 2008, it represented only
11.5 percent and it continues to fall. Sadly, the truth is that America
is being deindustrialized. As of the end of 2009, less
than 12 million Americans worked in manufacturing. The last time that
less than 12 million Americans were employed in manufacturing was in 1941.
#4 The number of Americans that have been out of work
for an extended period of time has absolutely exploded over the last few
years. As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had
been unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over
6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.
#5 The middle class continues to be squeezed out of
existence. According to a poll
taken in 2009, 61 percent of Americans ”always or usually” live
paycheck to paycheck. That was up substantially from 49 percent
in 2008 and 43 percent in 2007.
#6 The number of Americans living in poverty is
absolutely skyrocketing. 42.9 million Americans are now on food
stamps, and one out of every six Americans is now enrolled
in at least one anti-poverty program run by the federal government.
Unfortunately, many of those that have been hardest hit by this economic
downturn have been children. According to one new study,
approximately 21 percent of all children in the United States are
living below the poverty line in 2010 - the highest rate in 20 years.
#7 Many American families have been pushed beyond the
breaking point during this economic downturn. Over 1.4 million Americans
filed for personal bankruptcy in 2009, which represented a
32 percent increase over 2008. The final number for 2010 is expected
to be even higher.
#8 The U.S. real estate market continues to
stagnate. During
the third quarter of 2010, 67 percent of mortgages in Nevada were
“underwater”, 49 percent of mortgages in Arizona were “underwater” and 46
percent of mortgages in Florida were “underwater”. So what happens if
home prices go down even more?
#9 More elderly Americans than ever are being forced to
put off retirement and continue working. In 2010, 55
percent of Americans between the ages of 60 and 64 were in the labor
market. Ten years ago, that number was just 47 percent.
Unfortunately, it looks like this problem will only get worse in the years
ahead. In America today, approximately half of all workers have
less than $2000 saved up for retirement.
#10 In the United States today, there are simply far too
many retirees and not nearly enough workers to support them. Back in 1950
each retiree’s Social Security benefit was paid for by 16
workers. Today, each retiree’s Social Security benefit is paid for
by approximately 3.3 workers. By 2025 it is projected that
there will be approximately two workers for each retiree.
#11 Financial assets continue to become concentrated in
fewer and fewer hands. For example, the “big four” U.S.
banks (Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo) had
approximately 22 percent of all deposits in FDIC-insured institutions back in
2000. As of the middle of 2009 that figure was up to 39 percent.
#12 The Federal Reserve has been destroying the value of
the U.S. dollar for decades. Since the Federal Reserve was created in
1913, the U.S. dollar has lost over 95 percent of its purchasing power.
An item that cost $20.00 in 1970 would cost you $112.35 today. An item
that cost $20.00 in 1913 would cost you $440.33 today.
#13 Commodity prices continue to soar into the
stratosphere. Ten years ago, the price of a barrel of oil hovered around 20 to 30
dollars most of the time. Today, the price of oil is rapidly closing
in on 100 dollars a barrel and there are now fears that it could soon go much
higher than that.
#14 Federal government spending is completely and
totally out of control. The U.S. government budget deficit increased to a
whopping $150.4 billion last month, which represented the biggest November deficit on record. But our
politicians can’t seem to break their addiction to debt. In fact,
Democrats are trying to ram through a
1,924 page, 1.1 trillion dollar spending bill in the final days of the
lame-duck session of Congress before the Republicans take control of the House
of Representatives next year.
#15 The U.S. national debt is rapidly closing in on 14 trillion dollars. It is more
than 13 times larger than it was just 30 short years ago. According to an
official U.S. Treasury Department report to Congress, the U.S. national
debt is projected to climb
to an estimated $19.6 trillion by 2015.
#16 Unfortunately, the official government numbers
grossly understate the horrific nature of the crisis we are facing. John
Williams of Shadow Government Statistics has calculated that if the federal
government would have used GAAP accounting standards to measure the federal
budget deficit for 2009, it would have been approximately 8.8
trillion dollars. Not only that, but John Williams now says that U.S.
government debt is
so wildly out of control that it is mathematically impossible for us to
“grow” our way out of it….
The government’s finances not only are out of
control, but the actual deficit is not containable. Put into perspective,
if the government were to raise taxes so as to seize 100% of all wages, salaries
and corporate profits, it still would be showing an annual deficit using GAAP
accounting on a consistent basis. In like manner, given current revenues,
if it stopped spending every penny (including defense and homeland security)
other than for Social Security and Medicare obligations, the government still
would be showing an annual deficit. Further, the U.S. has no potential way
to grow out of this shortfall.
The more one examines the U.S. economic situation,
the more depressing it becomes. The U.S. financial system is trapped
inside a horrific debt spiral and we are headed straight for economic
oblivion.
If our leaders attempt to interrupt the debt spiral
it will plunge our economy into a depression. If our leaders attempt to
keep the debt spiral going for several more years it will just make the
eventual crash even worse. Either way, we are headed for a financial
implosion that will be truly historic.
The debt-fueled good times that we have been enjoying
for the last several decades are rapidly coming to an end. Unfortunately
for the tens of millions of Americans that are already suffering, our economic
problems are only going to get worse in the years ahead.’
The following
are 25 unemployment statistics that are almost too depressing to read….
#1 According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the
U.S. unemployment rate for November was 9.8
percent. This was up from 9.6 percent in October, and it continues a
trend of depressingly high unemployment rates. The official unemployment
number has been at 9.5 percent or higher for well over a year at this point.
#2 In November 2006, the “official” U.S. unemployment
rate was just 4.5
percent.
#3 Most economists had been expecting the U.S. economy
to add about 150,000 jobs in November. Instead, it
only added 39,000.
#4 In the United States today, there are over 15
million people who are “officially” considered to be unemployed for
statistical purposes. But everyone knows that the “real” number is even
much larger than that.
#5 As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans
that had been unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over
6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.
#6 The number of “persons not in the labor force” in
the United States recently
set another new all-time record.
#7 It now takes the average unemployed American over
33 weeks to find a job.
#8 When you throw in “discouraged workers” and
“underemployed workers”, the “real” unemployment rate in the state of
California is
actually about 22 percent.
#9 In America today there are not nearly enough jobs
for everyone. In fact, there are now approximately
5 unemployed Americans for every single job opening.
#10 According
to The New York Times, Americans that have been unemployed for five weeks
or less are three times more likely to find a new job in the coming month than
Americans that have been unemployed for over a year.
#11 The U.S. economy would need to create 235,120
new jobs a month to get the unemployment rate down to pre-recession levels
by 2016. Does anyone think that there is even a prayer that is going to
happen?
#12 There are 9
million Americans that are working part-time for “economic reasons”.
In other words, those Americans would gladly take full-time jobs if they could
get them, but all they have been able to find is part-time work.
#13 In 2009, total wages, median wages, and average
wages all
declined in the United States.
#14 As of the end of 2009, less than 12 million
Americans worked in manufacturing. The last time that less
than 12 million Americans were employed in manufacturing was in 1941.
#15 The United States has lost at least 7.5
million jobs since the recession began.
#16 Today, only
about 40 percent of Ford Motor Company’s 178,000 workers are employed
in North America, and a big percentage of those jobs are in Canada and
Mexico.
#17 In 1959, manufacturing represented 28
percent of U.S. economic output. In 2008, it represented 11.5
percent.
#18 Earlier this year, one poll found that 28% of all American households had at least one member that
was looking for a full-time job.
#19 In the United States today, over
18,000 parking lot attendants have college degrees.
#20 The United States has lost a staggering
32 percent of its manufacturing jobs since the year 2000.
#21 As the employment situation continues to stagnate,
millions of American families have decided to cut back on things such as
insurance coverage. For example, the percentage of American households
that have life insurance coverage is at its lowest level in
50 years.
#22 Unless Congress acts, and there is no indication
that is going to happen, approximately 2 million Americans will stop receiving unemployment checks over the next
couple of months.
#23 A poll that was released by the Pew Research Center
back in June discovered that an
astounding 55 percent of the U.S. labor force has
experienced either unemployment, a pay decrease, a reduction in hours
or an involuntary move to part-time work since the economic downturn
began.
#24 According to Richard McCormack, the United States
has lost over
42,000 factories (and counting) since 2001.
#25 In the United States today, 317,000
waiters and waitresses have college degrees.
But this is
what we get for creating the biggest debt
bubble in the history of the world. For decades we have been digging
a deeper hole for ourselves by going into increasingly larger amounts of
debt. In America today, our entire economy is based on debt. Even
our money
is debt. We were fools if we ever thought this could go on forever.
Just think about it. Have you ever gone out and run up a bunch of
debt? It can be a lot of fun sitting behind the wheel of a new car,
running your credit cards up to the limit and buying a beautiful big house that
you cannot afford. But in the end what happens? It always catches up with you.
Well, our collective debt is starting to catch up with us. There is a sea
of red ink on every level of American society. It is only a matter of
time before it destroys our economy. IF YOU THINK THAT
THINGS ARE BAD NOW, JUST WAIT. THINGS ARE GOING TO GET A WHOLE LOT
WORSE. A HORRIFIC ECONOMIC COLLAPSE IS COMING, AND IT IS GOING TO BE
VERY, VERY PAINFUL.’
Timid
Tuesday: Is it Safe? Davis
‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are
simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of
global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form
of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh)
is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut
$100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while
continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1%
each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool
all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT
THERE! ‘
17 Things Worrying
Investors Lloyd's Wall of Worry
Worry Count: 17
CHINA: 1,330,044,605 people can’t be wrong.
The PIIGS: Fasten your seatbelts. It’s gonna be a long, bumpy, expensive,
weird, (insert your own adjective here) freak show of a ride.
CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER 49 STATES: Not yet as dire as “The PIIGS”. Might I
suggest the classier moniker of “The Prosciuttos” for the American basket-case
states?
QE II: Gobble?
U.S. ECONOMY: The “Punky Brewster” of the global economic landscape.
UNEMPLOYMENT: Only thing worse than losing your job, losing your unemployment
check. At least there’s the holiday season to cheer everyone up (read: heavy
sarcasm).
TAXES: Praying to the Financial Market Gods that we don’t have another
TARP-like vote fiasco.
OBAMA ADMINISTRATION PART II: Still two years before the Pres. election and the
peanut gallery is already pleading for a Hail Mary Pass to get them back in the
game.
HFT: Instead of beating up these liquidity supplying traders, let’s honor them
with their very own stock exchange. But wait -- with no retail
saps to pick-off they will never get that Day 1 opening bell tick. Perfect.
XMAS 2010: As my professor friend Nick says, “Nowadays Americans are dining off
of two menus – The Million Dollar and the $0.99 Cent.” And both
are pissed about it.
CURRENCIES: Poor Mr. Greenback. Does someone need a hug?
HOUSING CRISIS: Price Stabilization – Are we there yet? Just a little bit more.
Are we there yet? Just a little bit more. Are we there yet? Just a little bit
more….
INFLATION/DEFLATION: Fed Chief Ben B. comes out swinging from his heels in
defense of inflation promotion. Don’t punch yourself out as this one is likely
to go the distance.
COMMODITIES: Corrected but still sky high; fortunately these prices are only
affecting core, basic, life-sustaining necessities and sparing our electronic
gadgets and plus-sized SUVs. Whew!
INSIDER TRADING: Another black eye for Hedge Funds. I estimate that makes black
eye number 6,597.
INTEREST RATES: South Korea and China slowly turning up the dial to “11”. On
the other hand the U.S. has removed the dial altogether. This never ends well….
NORTH KOREA: Here we go again.
Consumer confidence down, LiveLeak.com - Loonie closes above U.S. dollar … dollar for first time closes below parity on Canadian
loonie … hey, hey, hey … 'Huge' stock decline — but not yet MarketWatch
- Commentary: Adens … ‘mega trend’ looks grim … The
Adens expect a hyperinflationary collapse … ‘ Oh come
on! Manipulated dollar decline with inflated earnings, stock prices thereby,
etc., … we’ve seen this all before … the last few crashes … Jobless
rate jumps to 9.8% as hiring slows (Washington Post) [ The reality is not a mystery! The nation’s
been thrown under the bus for the greater good (wealth) of the very few (frauds
on wall street, etc.); wall street giving out record bonuses from their accomplished
fraud (with no-recession b.s. bernanke help) of $144 BILLION: Come on! This is
gettin’ even more downright ridiculous (if that’s even possible)! Pending home
foreclosure / distress sales up, oil prices (and oil stocks) up, debased dollar
down, plus a little familiar ‘better than expected’ thrown in along with
prospects of a ‘no-recession bernanke’ market-frothing bull session on 60
minutes and, voila, suckers’ rally into the close to keep the suckers suckered!
What’s good for the frauds on wall street is bad for just about everyone else
which includes the vast majority of people and businesses, domestically and
globally, as current dollar manipulation / debasement ultimately results in
higher costs and loss of purchasing power (ie., oil, etc.). Clearly, this is
one of those fraudulent wealth transfers to the frauds on wall street et als
which will ultimately be paid for by those who least are in a position to
afford it, courtesy of the ever more worthless Weimar dollar, etc., inflating
earnings, eps, lowering p/e multiples, etc., see infra. This is an especially
great time to sell / take profits while you can since there's much worse to
come! Previous: Rosy numbers on consumer sentiment, unemployment (far better
than private forecasts) from the government prior to the holiday so-called
‘shop till you drop’? How can anyone believe anything they say? Najerian
interviewed by Motek chimes in with the reason for good retail cheer; viz., people
have stopped paying their mortgages and are using the funds to purchase retail
goods; while Davidowitz adds that with record numbers of americans on food
stamps, real unemployment at 17+, and wall street giving out record bonuses
from their accomplished fraud (with no-recession b.s. bernanke help) of $144
BILLION … the high end stores /
jewelers will do well … daaaaah! And, with insiders
and wall street frauds selling into the bubble as preceded last crash, this is
an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits! Suckers’ rally on light volume, full moon, and government
complicity (false data / reports) to keep suckers suckered (easy for the wall
street frauds to do with just a mouse click / push of the button – and, they
know all those technical trade lines that are easy to program in this current
phase of the scam/fraud with the debased dollar). Keep in mind, the totally
mindless blather from the ‘cottage industries’ of and fraudulent wall street
itself in talking up lower P/E multiples when the same is a direct result of
the debasement of the dollar and the consequent manipulation / translation (not
real, see Davis, infra) which preceded the financial crisis / last crash.
Unemployment, trade, deficit, etc., numbers continue decidedly worse than
expected along with other negative data (and in the ‘wrong direction’, that
spin accorded ‘down but not as bad as before’ b*** s*** ) yet the market has
rallied like no tomorrow with used home foreclosure / distressed sales, though
abated owing to ‘foreclosuregate’, the other ‘heralded’ good news. Moreover, the dumbo lemmings of Europe have
jumped on the fraudulent defacto bankrupt american crazy train propelled to the
precipice also as if no tomorrow. This is about keeping the suckers sucked in
with the help of a market-frothing pre-election debased dollar for favorable
currency translation and paper (but not real when measured in, ie., gold, etc.)
profits which preceded the last crisis, inflating a bubble as in the last
crisis to facilitate the churn-and-earn, particularly with computerized (and
high frequency) trades and which commissions they’ll get again on the way down.
There is nothing to support these overbought stock prices, fundamentally or
otherwise. These are desperate criminals ‘at work’. Even wall street shill, the
senile Buffett is saying we’re still in a recession (depression) [
Davis: ‘… all profits are inflated
by 10% (from falling, debased dollar) and that 10% is the E that gets divided
from the P and gives us a much better price/multiple to hang our hats on and
that gets investors to BUYBUYBUY …’ The bull market that never was / were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold ] This is a great
opportunity to sell / take profits (these lower dollar, hyperinflationary
currency manipulations / translations to froth paper stocks will end quite
badly as in last crash)! This
is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression.
The past up moves were manipulated bull (s***) cycles (at best) in a secular
bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the
prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders
commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street ‘programmed
computerized high-frequency churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as
in prior crashes ( widely reported, high-frequency trading routinely
accounts for more than 50% of daily U.S. equity trading volume and regularly
approaches 70%. )’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end
until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally
prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.The Stock Market's
Long Decline Has Begun Smith ]
(1-21-11) Dow 11,872 +49 Nasdaq 2,689 -15
S&P 500
1,283 +3 [CLOSE- OIL $89.11
(-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS
$3.00 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.20 REG./ $3.29 MID-GRADE/
$3.39 PREM./ $3.79 DIESEL) /
GOLD $1,343 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $27.45 (+47% for year 2009)
PLATINUM $1,822 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .73 EURO, 82 YEN, .62
POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/update 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.42% …..… AP
Business Highlights
...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price
Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic /
International This
Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET
MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING
ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6
Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived
website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010
The Week Ahead:
Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010
01-13-10 Forecast for
2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10
Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking
Economic
Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not
Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal
Charts Trendsresearch.com
forecast for 2009 1-7-10
Crash is coming! ‘WORST
ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’ Must Read
Economic / Financial
Data
This Depression is
just beginning The coming
depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY
GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC
The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding
Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY,
ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE
TO COME!
National / World
Jerome Corsi:
"Hawaii Governor Can't Find Obama's Long Form Birth Certificate.". See the rest on the Alex
Jones YouTube channel.
Drudgereport: BANKRUPTCY
FOR STATES STUDIED
CA
DECLARES EMERGENCY
Facing
$1.6B shortfall, San Fran pays employees $170 million in bonuses...
What
Happened to 15 Million Jobs?
Wall
Street's 'Bernanke' rally runs into headwinds...
Home
sales hit 13-year low...
UPDATE:
Hawaii governor says Obama's birth record 'exists' but can't produce it...
Obama
daughter practices Chinese with Hu...
Chinese
Tiger ate US Dove for lunch...
FBI
'largest' Mafia takedown...
Flowchart...
'Vinny
Carwash', 'The Fang', 'Tony Bagels', 'Johnny Pizza', 'Baby Shacks', 'Jack the
Wack', 'Junior Lollipops', 'Bobby Glasses'...
MTV
PORN: Parents Television Council Calls for Fed Investigation Into 'SKINS'...
VIACOM
PRESENTS: SEX AT 15!
Young Star Defends Show's Racy Content: 'It's What Teens Are
Doing'...
TACO
BELL Pulls Ads...
Teacher
Suspended After 2nd Graders 'Sex Acts In Class'...
Joan Rivers calls Michelle
Obama 'Blackie O'... [ ‘Blackie O’ … Very funny! … I like that … but
don’t look for joan on ‘The View’ anytime soon, or invites from the whitehouse
either … but of course, and ‘Blackie O’ might retort that joan will be too busy
anyway, reprising the role of ‘The Joker’ in the next Batman film by the gifted
director, Christopher Nolan, with AH new Catwoman … meow! ]
Equities
Have Come Very Far Very Fast - Some Conservatism Is Warranted ‘With nothing
but bullish news and earnings releases prompting the biggest fall rally since
2006, it is timely and conservative to be cautious in equities going forward,
according to many market participants with good long term track records.
Valuations are showing signs of divergence, where high P/E ratio stocks are
rising without a follow through from statistically cheap stocks in many
industries.This “reach for yield” has engendered a new ethos in the stock
market where taking greater risk is more important in equity selection than
corporate net worth, earnings, discounted cash flow analysis, and net asset
values. Many times in the past this tendency has led to large market declines,
as valuations on the major averages become extended. Shares of technology
firms, and especially small cap technology stocks, have risen on metrics we
have not seen since the heady days of 1999 and 2000 – things like eyeballs,
mouse clicks, and 70 P/E ratios are back in fashion.In the latest public
interview with Ben Bernanke, the Fed Chief played down the notion that rising
food and energy prices outweighed the economic gains that QE has created,
saying with a smile that “the Russell 2000 is up 30% plus" since the
announcement of additional stimulus at Jackson Hole last summer. What bothers
many fundamental investors about this statement is the fact that the valuation
and earnings for the Russell were not mentioned by Mr. Bernanke (does he
actually believe in efficient market theory?), but simply that the nominal
price of the index fund is up. We all remember when price got ahead of
fundamentals in the housing market. While the Fed Chief is excited about the
stock market, no mention of the benefits to private business or the unemployed
was given.
Whether or not
this possibly short lived rise in nominal stock prices actually helps small
business owners over the long haul, I am obviously pulling for a full economic
recovery and believe in US capital markets over the longer term. If the markets
are now 30% more overvalued then they were last summer, many putting capital to
work here after the 90% rally could be badly hurt when Ron Paul begins his scrutiny
over the Fed’s actions. If QE is eventually wound down (or the expectation of
the wind down begins hitting stock prices), stocks could be badly hurt going
forward. Many feel the rise in the Russell 2000 was from an already expensive
base for many issues, and that risks of another flash crash are now greatly
heightened even if the overall benefit to the market means such action was
warranted.The last time oil prices rose from $40 to $91 we had major stock
market problems, and a continued rise in commodity prices could threaten the
global recovery and our stock market returns, at least when measured in Swiss
Francs or Norwegian Kroner. Greater leverage and money issuance could
exacerbate these issues and the short term gains may not be worth the longer term
damage overvalued markets could create when everyone runs for the exits at the
same time.
click to
enlarge [chart]
In addition to
the high valuations of many stock indicies, the latest news about Steve Jobs is
disconcerting when you factor in Apple’s 20% position in the QQQQ
(Nasdaq 100). Experienced Investors know that the QQQQ generally leads
technology shares, and technology shares generally lead the broader markets. A
fall in AAPL
to $300 could easily start a 3-7% correction in the overall equity markets
based on the weighting of Apple in the QQQQ, and the past behavior of Apple
stock when Jobs has been in the headlines for medical reasons.The man is truly
a genius, crediting a large part of his success to experiences with LSD in the
1970s and his belief in making each customer more creatively effective. Of
course, I am pulling for Jobs (wishing him well, as he has a fantastic passion
to make the world a better place) and for the markets overall here, but I am
cautious on these developments from an investment perspective. Whether more
stimulus and forward earnings growth mean “any correction is a buying
opportunity” is for the reader to decide, but taking your cues from Mr. Market
and being fearful when others are greedy seems to make a lot of sense here.Just
last year, the US equity markets declined over 10% in less than three hours on
May 6, 2010 and many believe this decline was more than just a glitch. The same
type of decline hit equities on September 29, 2008 and more of these market
jolting events could be looming in our future. So, in light of the fact that we
have come very far, very fast in equities, I believe some degree of
conservatism is likely well worth the opportunity cost. Corrections never come
when people expect them to, and stocks don’t go straight up forever.’
Parallel Universe DIA vs. QQQQ: Dave's Daily ‘The big names just don't want to
break down. Remembering the DJIA is a price weighted index -- companies like
IBM keep things well-propped. In the meantime, tech struggles over the past few
days especially with the breakdown in "cloud" sectors. Commodity
markets were hit hard on worries China's inflation situation will warrant more
tightening. This, should it happen, is never friendly for commodity markets and
precious metals as
we posted earlier with GLD (SPDR Gold ETF). Economic data was mixed with
better Jobless Claims and Housing data while the Philly Fed report was disappointing
with current report and the previous report adjusted lower. Earnings continue
to flow and most beat expectations handily once again reminding us of the
ineptitude of most analysts. It's a hard job, but somebody has to do it at
least making sure companies "beat" for the M&A goodwill. Through
the first half of the day stocks stayed lower
but crept higher abetted by more POMO and a recovery in some financial stocks.
It may be very difficult for any meaningful sell-off or correction as long as
Ben is printing. Volume improved significantly today which is typical on down
days. Breadth, per the WSJ, was decidedly negative. ‘
Retreat
Unfolding? Inflation Trader ‘Markets recently
have been reversing Mackay’s classic observation that “Men…think in herds; it
will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses
slowly, and one by one.” Instead, the slow march of stocks higher has meant
that people have been going mad one by one, and joining the crowd. Does the
maxim hold true in reverse? Will they recover their senses in herds?This would
be a bad thing, and I am relieved to observe that while the 1% decline in
equities yesterday was the largest single-day selloff since November 23rd, the
volume was not appreciably different from Tuesday’s volume. A bear might growl
that this shows how much lower even a little selling might push
prices, but classic technical analysis would expect to see a swelling of volume
to confirm a trend change.My suspicion, techies or no, is that this is more
than a one-day respite in a relentless march. The negative earnings surprises
and/or downbeat announcements from Goldman (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), Northern Trust (NTRS), Citigroup (C), and American Express (AXP) (cutting 550 jobs) helped drive the
NASDAQ Bank Index down 2.6%. Barclays (BCS) just laid off a number of people, many of
them very senior, with essentially no warning. Anecdotally, I can report
friends at other dealers who are starting to size up their options/escape hatch
as well. This is all very strange if you read the economic headlines, or even
the earnings reports which, while downbeat, weren’t exactly the big losses of
2008-09. Is there some signal here about the economy, or is the financial
reform bill just damaging prospects for financial institutions? Or am I reading
too much into narrow anecdotal evidence? I will just say the state of the
banking sector just feels less bumptious than it did just a couple of months
ago.Homebuilders were also down, some 3.5% as measured by the S&P 500
Homebuilding Index. Surely this cannot be simply a reaction to the weak New
Home Sales number (529k vs 550k expected). After all, the inventory of new
homes (which isn’t in the Housing Starts report, but is relevant here) is at
the lowest level since 1968 (see Chart, click to enlarge), and
adjusted for population it is probably at the lowest level ever.[chart]
Inventory of New Homes. Yes, they compete with the high inventories of
EXISTING homes, but this picture is reasonably upbeat for the home building
industry in the long-term.Both banking and homebuilding, of course, were
sectors that cratered and were bailed out in the housing crisis. Could they be
canaries in the coal mine now? I doubt it on the homebuilder side, but I have
long held that the mega-bank is going to be an expensive use of capital now
that the social costs of being big have resulted in legislation that will have
the effect of lower volumes, lower margins, and lower leverage. All three legs
of the ROE formula, in other words, will be under pressure; the future should
belong to the boutiques and partnerships…just as the past once belonged to
Merrill, Lynch, Pierce, Fenner, and Smith instead of Merrill/BOA.The tiny
tremor in stocks yesterday – which, granted, feels like a massive earthquake
since it has been so long since the last tiny tremor – is only a warning. But
it is a warning echoed in the breakdown of the dollar below its trading range
for the last two months (see Chart, click to enlarge).[chart]
Dollar is looking soggy again.None of these little hints and wiggles
would matter much in the normal course of events. They’re not big news. The
problem is that there are a lot of people waiting for a Sign to Get Out.
Several of these things could be construed to be enough of a warning for a
nervous investor to flee. The question is whether these investors regain their
senses one by one, or in herds.It is far too early to make this suggestion, but
I think a reasonably gentle 2.5% further selloff to 1250 on the S&P would
be welcomed by many. A more-rapid decline, say if yesterday’s 1% turns into
today’s 1.5% and Friday’s 2%, would cause more concern and widen the range of
possible outcomes thereafter. In this circumstance I think it isn’t whether
you wake up the giant, or when you wake up the giant, but how
you wake him up, and jumping on his chest is unlikely to produce the results
you would like.I am not sure that economic data will have anything to do with
the unfolding retreat, but if Initial Claims (Consensus: 420k from 445k) fails
to drop back onto the improving trend or if Existing Home Sales (Consensus:
4.87mm versus 4.68mm last) goes down instead of up, those will be additional
irritants for the investing public. Today also brings the Philly Fed Index
(Consensus: 20.8, unchanged), which is expected to stay near the 2010 highs.
There is plenty of scope for disappointment, in my view.By the way, I am not
terribly sanguine about bonds, either. Yields are very low, and although weak
economic data is typically good for bonds I think that is less clear when the
government plainly needs growth in order to be able to redeem those bonds some
day (at least, in the absence of debt monetization). Given that we are still
struggling with the deficit from the 2008-09 crisis, is it good for bonds if we
enter another recession or even a period of choppy near-zero growth? I think
the answer there is unclear. Commodity indices for me still look like the best
medium-term bet although they have certainly come far themselves in the last
few months.However, the Treasury is going to issue $13bln of a new 10y TIPS
bond today, with a real yield that will be near 1%. That is pretty
uninteresting unless your alternative is the 10y nominal note at 3.33%. I am
not fond of the duration, even in real bonds, but I suspect the auction will go
fine. The TIPS market continues to be in a zero-net-supply situation with the
Fed essentially providing all the new cash that the Treasury raises through the
TIPS auctions. It is hard to be bearish on auction results in that situation.’
Is the Up Trend
Broken? On Thursday January 20, 2011, ‘We published this
article a few days ago and decided to re-run it because it answers today's
most-asked question: Is the up trend broken? Since the article first ran, we
offered this conclusion in the January 14th ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter:
'Based on the confluence of overhead resistance, optimistic sentiment extremes,
short-term bearish seasonality and waning breadth, the end of this rally seems
near. According to resistance levels, the odds for a reversal at S&P 1,300
+/- 10 points are high.' Whether the final top is in place remains to be seen,
but here is what might be expected over the coming weeks. Original article starts here:What the market's rally lacks in
charisma, it has made up in persistence. The stair-step, creeping type of an up
grind is lulling investors to sleep as we speak. Steady and seemingly risk-free
gains have rekindled optimism and created a state of euphoria not seen in years
... since late 2007 to be exact.The irony of this article is that few investors
will feel compelled to read anything that resembles a warning or contains a
bearish message. The few that read this piece will probably scoff at it. That's
how bear market rallies work and that's why they are effective.The soothing
rhythm of the VIX has lulled investors into a state of complacency. If you had
to describe investor's alertness in sleep lingo, a state of REM sleep would
probably be the closest comparison.History tells us that the (bear) market only
strikes when least expected.Based on analyst polls by Bloomberg, Barron's, USA
Today and a variety of sentiment measures, a stock market (NYSEArca: VTI - News) decline is as remote today
as it was in 2000 or 2007.
Hedging Activity Drops
Investors and traders are content to hold on to massive long positions
without hedge. One of the easiest ways to hedge your stock portfolio is via put
options. Last week the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio dropped to 0.4, the lowest
reading since April 15, 2010.The lack of hedging is dangerous for prices
because the market is without a safety net. The only option for spooked
investors without hedge is to sell. Selling causes prices to drop.On April 16,
2010, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned of the consequences of a low
put/call ratio: 'Selling results in more selling. This negative feedback loop
usually results in rapidly falling prices. The pieces are in place for a major
decline. We are simply waiting for the proverbial first domino to fall over and
set off a chain reaction.'The first domino dropped just a few days later,
setting off the May 6 'Flash Crash' and ultimately resulted in a swift 15%
correction for the Dow (DJI: ^DJI), 17% correction for the S&P (SNP:
^GSPC), 19% for the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC), and 21% for the Russell 2000
(NYSEArca: IWM - News).A different measure of
complacency is the premium traders willingness to pay for call options
(bullish bets). Based on a three-month average, the price for put options
(bearish bets) is near a 10-year low. The only other time that rivals current
readings was in 2007.
This Time is Different
The
spirit of 'this time is different' is one of the most fascinating phenomenons
known to Wall Street. Investors' sentiment follows the ebb and flow of stock
prices. When prices are up, the future is expected to be bright. When prices
are down, the future is supposedly bleak (just think of the 2007 peak and 2009
bottom).This approach of linear extrapolations feeds the herding mentality,
which contrarians use as effective indicators. This approach is not foolproof
but, nevertheless, is one of the most accurate, if not the most accurate timing
tool known to underground Wall Street aficionados.The chart below (taken from
the January 2011 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter) illustrates the four most
prominent occurrences of extreme optimism, or the 'this time is different'
effect. The green line connects the price of the S&P with the timeline and
various sentiment gauges.[chart]Investors thought 'this time is different' at the
2007 peak, in May 2008, in January 2010, and again in April 2010. The only
thing different at all four times was the velocity of the descent, but each
period of euphoria was greeted by despair.
History Rhymes
History
doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes. In 2007, Merrill Lynch's Global
Economics Report foresaw a bright future: 'The Merrill Lynch global economics
team believes that the economy will continue to grow in 2007 - with no sign of
a significant cyclical slowdown.'According to J.P. Morgan, Barclays Capital and
Goldman Sachs (Merrill Lynch failed to foresee its own demise in 2007 and is no
more), the S&P will gain between 15 - 20% in 2011 and the 'economy will
continue to grow in 2011.'Perhaps this time will be different, but based on
history, now is the time to at least be cautious and protect your investments.
An ounce of protection is worth more than a pound of cure. Based on long-term
valuation metrics the stock market is priced to deliver pain, not gain (see
November 2011 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter for a detailed analysis).Based on
sentiment, the market is overheated and due for a correction at the very least,
and how often have we seen a correction turn into something more? Timing a top
is tricky, but based on support and resistance levels and seasonal patterns it
is possible to narrow down when the market is ready to roll over. End of
original article.We don't make up structurally important support/resistance
levels, the market does, so it behooves us to listen. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter monitors the market's vital signs
and highlights important support/resistance levels. If the next important
support fails, we might be looking at an April-like decline.’
U.S.
Supreme Court Issues Landmark Decision: Constitution is Void PRNewswire-USNewswire
| Landmark decision that serves to allow judges to void the Constitution in
their courtrooms. ’ The U.S. Supreme Court issued a landmark decision that serves
to allow judges to void the Constitution in their courtrooms. The decision was
issued on January 18, 2011, and the Court did not even explain the decision
(Docket No. 10-632, 10-633, and 10-690). One word decisions: DENIED.Presented
with this information and massive proof that was not contested in any manner by
the accused judges, at least six of the justices voted to deny the
petitions:“There is no legal or factual basis whatsoever for the decisions of
the lower courts in this matter. These rulings were issued for corrupt reasons.
Many of the judges in the Northern District of Georgia and the Eleventh Circuit
are corrupt and violate laws and rules, as they have done in this case. The
Supreme Court must recognize this Petition as one of the most serious matters
ever presented to this Court.” ‘The key questions answered negatively by the
U.S. Supreme Court was: “Whether federal courts must be stopped from operating
corruptly and ignoring all laws, rules, and facts.” Windsor says: "I have
discovered that the federal judges in Atlanta, Georgia,
Washington, DC, and the justices of the United
States Supreme Court function like common criminals intentionally making bogus
rulings against honest people while covering up the crimes of their fellow
judges. I have been contacted by people from all over the country and
around the world with their stories of judicial corruption with judges all over
the U.S."My charges have been totally ignored by the
United States Attorney's Office, the FBI, and Congress. I do not believe
there is a shred of decency, honesty, or Constitutional rights in our federal
courts. In my opinion, we now live in a police state. Judges are
free to do absolutely anything they want. Our laws are meaningless.
Your life savings can be stolen by a federal judge, and they have no risk
in violating every law in the books."In my opinion, this is the most
serious issue that our country has ever faced. Our rights have been
stolen. And the mainstream media refuses to cover this story because they
are afraid of the judges. Heaven help us."I believe our only hope in
America is if the masses become aware of what is taking place. I am
writing an expose, and my book will be available at Borders, Barnes &
Noble, and on amazon.com soon. The publisher will decide if the title is Lawless
America or Screwed, Glued, and Tattooed." For more information,
see www.LawlessAmerica.com.’
Drudgereport:
FBI
Rounds Up 127 Mobsters in Biggest Mafia Bust in New York History…( This is
great news and music to my ears! I really hate the mob … I really do! Hats off
to the FBI! ) ...
MOB
Bust So BIG they're being held at ARMY Fort...
House
GOP Lists $2.5 Trillion in Spending Cuts...
China:
USA #1 no more...
GE
CEO: China one day will be world's biggest economy...
A
day after cutting $19B deal with China, Boeing slashes 1,100 US jobs...
US
Stocks slide on fears of Chinese rate hike...
Obama:
'We Welcome China's Rise'...
Currency system 'product of the past'...
HU QUESTIONS FUTURE OF DOLLAR
RISING
DRAGON: China on equal footing with USA as Hu visits Washington...
GE
CEO: China one day will be world's biggest economy… daaaaah! ...
Obama:
'We Welcome China's Rise'...
Careful
to avoid criticism...
HOUSE
VOTES TO REPEAL HEALTHCARE LAW...
Dem
Compares Republicans to Nazis during debate...
26
states join suit against law...
SHOCK
CLAIM: World needs $100 TRILLION more credit, says World Economic Forum...
Japan
hits 'critical point' on state debt...
APPLE
faces pollution storm in China... ‘A group of 36 Chinese environmental groups has accused Apple of
failing to address concerns over pollution and worker health issues in
factories supplying components for its gadgets…’
Home
building stuck near 50 year lows...
CASHOUT:
Daley Files to Sell $8.3 Million JPMORGAN Shares After Joining Obama Team...
Taiwanese
mock meeting w/ video cartoon...
Missiles
off target in major Taiwan drill...
China
'got stealth tech from Russia'...
GE
to sign slew of China deals...
'Experience
China' takes over NYC's Times Square...
PEW:
65% see China as an 'adversary' or 'serious problem'...
STUXNET
WORM USED AGAINST IRAN WAS TESTED IN ISRAEL...
Three
U.S. Soldiers Killed in Iraq...
GALLUP:
U.S. Satisfaction Remains Near 12-Month Low...
CBS
POLL: 77% say cut spending; only 9% say raise taxes...
States
Warned of $2.5 Trillion
Pensions Shortfall...
Schwarzenegger:
I Was 'Addicted' To Being Governor...
Comprehensive
List of Tax Hikes in Obamacare...
Republican
senator sees bipartisan agreement on debt ceiling … (no surprise here; after
all, they have to get paid…for what?…more and more people are asking the
question - all three branches including
the toy soldiers for perpetual war and illegal drugs / arms ops) ...
Obama
Gives Communist Leader Lavish State Dinner...
China
lending hits new heights; Funding to poor states (that includes defacto
bankrupt america) tops World Bank...
RISE
OF RED DRAGON: CHINA SHAPES WORLD
Jobs Takes
Medical Leave...
House panel wants Homeland Security documents...
GALLUP:
U.S. Satisfaction Remains Near 12-Month Low...
Ahmadinejad,
Medvedev agree to boost ties...
Moscow
reaffirms Soviet recognition of Palestine...
Camden,
NJ braces for deep police, fire cuts...
Israeli
human rights groups sound alarm (Washington Post) [ As indeed they should!
As a war crimes nation along with pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt
america, israel has much to lose by exposure of their pervasive crimes though
the entire world is aware of same including illegal nukes! … Ie., Accountability is unclear in israeli probe of flotilla
raid (Washington
Post) Oh, come on! An israeli probe of an
israeli massacre of civilians. Time for israel to pay; for illegal nukes, for
violations of international law, for continued violations of u.n. resolutions,
for provocations as pretexts to sabotage peace talks, and on and on ad nauseum.
Why does america among other nations feel compelled to sacrifice themselves for
the sake of a global criminal nation with an insatiable greed and blood-thirst
as israel? ] An
initiative in the Israeli parliament this month to investigate the funding of
local human rights organizations has intensified debate here about the role of
the groups, which critics have accused of harming Israel.
Obama
presses (as in pressing Mr. Hu’s pants) Chinese leader on rights At
summit, Hu admits his nation needs to make more progress (Washington Post) [ Riiiiight! … Mr. Hu says
with utmost sarcasm to continued perpetual war president, in the mold of dumbya
bush though national u.s. defacto bankruptcy, viz., ‘wobama the b (for b***
s***)’. White
House more hard-nosed about Chinese government / Hu
to face a tougher Obama administration (Washington Post) [ Please … don’t
make me laugh … and, are you sure you didn’t mean more ‘brown-nosed’ about the
Chinese government. This is starting to sound like seed material for the
Weekend Update SNL skit segment, ‘REALLY’. I mean, really. Does anybody believe
this? Come on … I don’t think so! ] Analysts say President Hu Jintao is eager
to burnish his legacy, but he will find a White House that views his government
with misgivings.] [Drudgereport: Currency system
'product of the past'...
HU QUESTIONS FUTURE
OF DOLLAR
RISING DRAGON: China on equal
footing with USA as Hu visits Washington...
GE CEO: China one day will be
world's biggest economy… daaaaah! ...
Obama: 'We Welcome China's
Rise'...
Careful to avoid criticism... ] President
urges counterpart to allow more freedom and open a real dialogue with the Dalai
Lama, and raises the case of imprisoned Nobel winner.
Possible Earnings Season Potholes , On Wednesday January 19, 2011, 6:58 pm EST ‘Earnings season is upon us and according to
10 strategists and investment managers polled by Barron's, there's no cloud in
the sky. The future's looking bright.If you've followed Wall Street forecasts
for a few years, you must have discerned a pattern: Forecasts are always rosy.
If Wall Street analysts were meteorologists, their outlook would always be
'sunny' unless it is actually raining.Therein lies the problem; Wall Street
never sees hard rain coming and only offers an umbrella after investors have
gotten trenched. The purpose of this article is to provide an out of the box
forecast with analysis you won't hear on the Street.
Insiders vs. Analysts
Analysts
have their optimistic disposition implanted by the companies they cover.
Corporate managers have every incentive to stay positive for as long as they
can.Ironically, as CEOs project record high earnings, insider selling has
picked up. In December, Investors Intelligence reports that: 'there was a sharp
acceleration in the pace of insider selling over the last week, as if they
suddenly all received word that the index highs would end.'Who would you rather
believe - analysts (and their sources) with an agenda or the action of insiders
with skin in the game? Something doesn't seem right if insiders want you to do
as they say but not as they do.
Unbridled Enthusiasm
Mark
Twain said that: 'When I find myself on the side of the majority, I know it's
time to find a new place to side.' The majority of investors (and analysts) now
believe in rising stock prices.Sentiment gauges have recorded readings not
registered since the 2007 all-time highs, or before the May 'Flash Crash.' This
is usually a sign of a market that's getting ready to roll over.
Trap #1
This
brings us to the first investment trap for Q1 2011 - equities. After rallying
more some 90%, the major indexes a la Dow (DJI: ^DJI), S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) and
Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) are simply overbought, over loved and overvalued. This
doesn't mean that they have to crumble tomorrow, but NOW is the time to think
about protection.In each of the past three years, January trading has delivered
a surprise shot of reality. Don't be surprised if it happens again in
2011.Sectors with the biggest gains include retail (NYSEArca: XRT
- News),
consumer discretionary (NYSEArca: XLY - News),
materials (NYSEArca: XLB - News),
and technology and these are also the most vulnerable to correction.Even though
it defies Wall Street's approach of linear extrapolation, sectors that do well
one year, rarely top the list the following year. It would make sense to either
buy put protection - which is historically cheap due to a low VIX - or set
mental stop-loss safety levels to avoid suffering through a painful
correction.In an effort to keep this article brief, we won't delve into the
Europe crisis. One of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter's predictions for 2010
was an increase in sovereign debt defaults. The Europe crisis will be with us
for a while and will turn into a big drag for developed markets (NYSEArca: EFA
- News)
eventually.
Trap #2
A
rush for tax-free yield drove investors into municipal bonds. Chasing yields
can be a pricey mistake. If you plot dividend yields against stock prices over
the past 100 years, you'll quickly notice that periods of low yields are
generally a good time to sell, not buy stocks.The muni bond market has been an
obvious, but ignored, house of cards. California is nearly bankrupt and every
other state or municipality has seen their tax revenue dwindle. Loaning money
to municipalities is like giving a car loan to someone who just lost their job.
The default risk is high.On August 26, the very day Treasuries and muni bonds
topped - the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter told its subscribers to get out of
muni bonds, corporate bonds and Treasuries. Prices for bonds have tumbled since
and the danger isn't over. The three trillion muni bond market is in serious
danger. Now is the time to worry about return of your money, not return on your
money.
Trap #3
Not
all is as it seems and if you put your trust in the Fed, you may soon be
disappointed. Quantitative easing in general, and QE2 in particular, was
supposed to stimulate the economy, increase inflation and the money
supply.[chart]As the chart above shows, it didn't do any of the above. QE2 also
was intended to lower interest rates to increase lending and make mortgages
more affordable. The chart below shows what the interest of the 10-Yr Treasury
has done since QE2 was launched.[chart]The Fed is treating the previous indulgence
in debt by taking on even more debt. This is like taking more heroin to kick a
drug addiction. It will keep you functioning for a while, but eventually your
system will shut down. The only chance of success is to detox.
The Minefield Looks Pretty
To sum
up, we are looking at a minefield covered by a beautiful blanket of flowers.
The Fed - although it's failed to jolt the economy - has succeeded in inflating
stocks (NYSEArca: VTI - News)
and commodities (NYSEArca: DBA - News).
It has served as fertilizer for fake growth.But sentiment is indicative of a
market ready to roll over. Similar sentiment readings and warnings by the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter in December 2008, January 2010, and April 2010 led
to declines from 9 - 29%. Aside from Fed induced liquidity, there's not been
much reason to believe this time will be different. The market's internal
strength has been waning as various breadth indicators failed to confirmed the
recent price highs.
Enjoy the Sight, Mind the Feel
Creeping
up trends like the current one can go on for weeks. But take a look at the
price action leading to the April highs and it becomes clear that such stair
stepping up trends tend to end very abruptly and without warning.That doesn't
mean that a correction has to turn into a meltdown, but if you maneuver through
trap-infested territory, it pays to be careful and protect yourself.’
Financials Lay an Egg: Dave's Daily ‘If I don't post every day it's
easy to forget how the routine goes, but that's not your problem. Anyway, most
disappointment Wednesday surrounded financials and perhaps materials. Investors
were pretty energized regarding bank prospects but were disappointed with GS
and AXP reports. The DJIA was propped higher by IBM's earnings keeping in mind
it's a "price weighted" index with the company being the big dog
there. Oddly, the rest of the tech sector saw sharp declines led by semis and
networking. Commodity markets were mixed to down on the day while the dollar
sold-off. Bonds rallied some as stocks were lower and home building data was
weak. Volume continues to be incredibly light and it's hard to put your finger
on why. Connected obliquely was news that hedge fund assets reached and
exceeded their prior highs now at $1.9 trillion. With an unknown percentage of
these assets involved in HFT (High Frequency Trading) it only enhances the
impact of this activity. As some may know we utilize DeMark indicators to assess
timing exits from long or short positions. DeMark is usually quiet but today he
posted a note suggesting an "imminent" decline in markets was at
hand. With POMO ongoing (more
today) it's the wind behind bulls' sails that could defeat many technical
indicators. In any event, volume picked up on selling while breadth was
decidedly negative per the WSJ.’
White
House more hard-nosed about Chinese government / Hu
to face a tougher Obama administration (Washington Post) [ Please … don’t make me laugh … and, are you sure
you didn’t mean more ‘brown-nosed’ about the Chinese government. This is
starting to sound like seed material for the Weekend Update SNL skit segment,
‘REALLY’. I mean, really. Does anybody believe this? Come on … I don’t think
so! ] Analysts say President Hu Jintao is eager to burnish his legacy, but he
will find a White House that views his government with misgivings.
Self
Correcting Market Poses Unique Situation Pierce ‘There is quite a danger
premium built into this market as the market continues to grind higher. Here
are a few thoughts as to what the look of a correction could look like from
user AlbertaRocks on Seeking Alpha referencing the
Hindenburg Omen, Goldman Sacks, and market makers.
Sources are saying that the vast
majority of investors are now in the market “with no hedge”, meaning with no
puts. But you can bet that the institutional managers have some protection of
some sort. If they don’t have puts in place, you can be pretty sure that they
have trailing stops in place. And we can rest assured that they’re tightening
those trailing stops with each passing day. The more wacky and contrived this melt-up
becomes, the tighter they’ll move them. Wouldn’t you just love to know how
tight those stops are, and how many shares are for sale at each price level
just below the market? You can bet the farm that Goldman knows.
That’s most likely why there’s been no sell-off allowed. And that’s why there’s little likelihood of there being any sell-off that they can control. I’ve been speculating on this for damned near a year now. I thought they’d lost control at the August correction, but I was wrong. But the further this Fed induced insanity has gone, the more likely it is that the xxxxxxx (the Fed, GS and their minions) are probably finally trapped. This is why we “need” to see if 1130 holds. If it does, I’d bet that it would be “barely”. If it doesn’t, then 900 might not hold either. Anyway, that’s why I’m expecting violence in the markets. I don’t even know whether to expect a nice, tidy slow melt-down that accelerates (if that’s even possible), or a 40 handle gap lower one of these days. But whatever it is, when those stops begin triggering, there won’t be a damned thing GS can do about it other than buy them all up… or just let ‘em go and throw all their own shares into the pot as well. If the bankers ever want out, the question we’ve all be asking is “who they gonna sell to?”. Now we can add the fact that not only do they have nobody to sell to, but they have billions of shares of competition who’ll want out at the same time as the banks do. Man…. I can’t see how it could be anything other than a violent crash.’
Gauging
Economic Activity: It Takes Money to Make Money Hansen ‘It appears that
most people focus on money flows as the gauge of economic activity.
Non-monetary measures are generally ignored. GDP measures money flows.
Consider that
the majority of people (aka "consumers") in the USA (and the world
for that matter) account for a small portion of the money movements. Looking at
incomes (and not expenditures), the reality comes into focus.
click to
enlarge images
The above
graph shows the breakdown of the economy by income - not selected expenditure
like GDP. The sum of this income pie is several times GDP as money moves around
the economy. The relationship between the incomes of people, business and
government (as shown on the above pie chart) has remained fairly constant since
1948.
What has
changed is the income distribution of people (totaling 43% of total USA income)
in the yellow and green pie slices. The yellow pie slice of Joe Sixpack has
been getting smaller while the green pie slice for the richer Americans has
been getting larger.
Average income
becomes larger than median income as the number of high earners increases.
When we use
money flows as a metric to understand how well an economy is doing, the
majority of the population (the yellow pie slice) becomes insignificant. Joe
Sixpack does not have enough money to be a factor in this economy where money
flows are the squeaky wheel which gets the grease. As the economic controllers
are graded by how much money flows grow, natural gravity (not conspiracy or
lobbyists) would cause laws and regulations to favor groups (business and high
worth people) which will make the "money flow" economy expand.
In the case of
the USA, 80% of the people amount to 40% of personal income, while 20% of the
people make 60% of personal income. This fixation on money movements as a
metric to understand economic growth favors the elements of the economy which
most easily can generate faster monetary expansion.
You remember
the saying "It takes money to make money".
For the
richest people of the economy, this has translated into long term wealth
building (chart
complements of Wikipedia).
If economic
progress was based on counting jobs, or living conditions, or life expectancy -
attention would be directed towards that metric instead of GDP which has little
in common with Joe Sixpack, or the majority of Americans. The GDP metric is now
discriminating against Joe Sixpack.
GDP in chained
dollars keeps rising. Joe is getting further behind.
Economic
News This Week:
Econintersect
economic forecast for January
2010 pointing to a slightly improving economy. This week the Weekly Leading
Index (WLI) from ECRI continued
to improve from 3.4 to 3.7 implying the business conditions six months from now
might be improving. Six monts ago, the WLI was declining indicating that
December should have been slightly worse then July 2010. This December data is
coming in fairly strong.
[chart]
Initial
unemployment claims in this week’s release increased slightly. If you look at
the not seasonally adjusted claims - they rose to an eye popping 770,413.
Here is a
comparison to prior years non-seasonally adjusted initial claims with the
approximate gain over the previous week:
It is likely that the seasonal adjustment factors are
a little off this week, and is one more reason to follow the four week moving
average with smooths out the inconsistencies in the data. The unadjusted
increase for the first week of the year in 2011 is similar to the two
preceeding years (2009 and 2010). All three are obviously much larger than the
preceeding three years (2006,2007 and 2008). One is tempted to ascribe this
difference to the institution of a New Normal. However, 2005 (153,000) is close
to the range observed for 2009-2011 so maybe the distribution of data 2006-2011
is a circumstantial arrangement of random data.
Moral: Exercize caution when casually attributing
observations to a "New" Normal.
Most of the data released this week was inconsistent
with Econintersect’s December forecast of slow growth - and it more resembles
Econintersect's January forecast. Overall the December data released this week
was strong. However, the transport indicators began their improvement in
December which historically foretells economic improvement. Warning: one month
does not make a trend. The table below itemizes the major events and analysis
this week.
Weekly Economic Release Scorecard:
Item |
Headline |
Analysis |
Up 0.5% |
Energy price surge a concern to Econintersect for 2011 economic
expansion |
|
Up 0.8% |
This is a gross understatement. This is record sales up 8% YoY. |
|
Up 0.8% |
Agree that Industrial Production increased |
|
Up 1.2% |
This is November Data - but the increase is confirmed by the
unadjusted data |
|
Up 1.1% MoM |
Energy surged 7.7%. Likely to show up in CPI in the following months |
|
Shrunk $100 million |
Historically high exports but surplus likely grew $3.5 billion |
|
|
Consumer Contraction is now 270 days old |
|
Up 2.4% |
Diesel use at December historical highs |
|
Up 7.3% |
Positive trend lines going into 2011 |
|
Down 0.6% |
Both consumer sentiment and small business are in the same relative
negative positions |
|
Up 1.9% |
November sales are at historical highs for November |
|
|
Avoid owning fixed assets |
|
|
Historically major bond holders dump at first sign of inflation |
|
|
Chupacabra is not coming to eat our goats |
|
|
There is far more risk then realized |
|
|
The underlying economic driver is jobs. |
|
|
This entire economic policy morass is encumbered with lack of
experimental control. |
Bankruptcy this week: Constar International Inc.
Bank Failures This Week:
[chart] ‘
On
Unemployment, Inflation and Flawed Fed Logic
[ Hasner has omitted a very crucial fact:
america’s defacto bankrupt and saddled with insurmountable record level
debt! ] Hasner ‘The sum total of Fed actions over the
past 3 years can probably be summed up as the central bank attempting to create
its own reality. They have committed to the following :
All of these actions are the result of
a single fact: They are compensating for failing to do the job they were tasked
with from 2000 to 2008. They failed and we pay and pay.
I think we have to first explore why
inflation is so important to the Fed to make sense of this mess.
The banks are still in a big hole (of
their own digging) and need housing prices to stay elevated to keep their
losses in check. These same banks need to recapitalize at low interest rates
(via bond issuance) and to profit from the rate spread to keep their salary
game intact. The wealthiest individuals in America stand to lose the most from
deflation, even though housing price devaluation would enable an entire new
generation of hard working Americans to participate in the housing market.
The influence of the wealthy on Fed
policy is not hard to understand. Keep the status quo and you are safe from
congressional inquiry as a Fed governor; do what's in the best long term best
interest of the American citizenry at large and you are not. Congress by and
large will continue to go along with this charade for as long as we let them.
It should be "one man, one vote", but these days it’s how many
dollars you can pony up that determines how many "votes" you can
muster.
Why does inflation serve the largest
banks and corporations disproportionately while hurting the average working
citizen?
Greater Inflation is desired because
the largest banks still hold massive amounts of "bad" loans on their
books that simply cannot be justified under any scenario except elevated
housing prices. Greater inflation is desired by large multinational businesses
so that they may increase current pricing levels and continue to grow
profitability for shareholders. Greater inflation is sought so that the Fed can
regain credibility and maintain the illusion of being in control of the
markets. Inflation in basic necessities such as food, energy, health care and
educational expenses have the potential to drain the resources of anyone below
the upper strata of society. Making life harder for those on the margin to
protect those at the top is not only bad economic policy, it's immoral.
What might the potential long term
effects of a near zero Fed funds rate be?
The longer the Fed keeps rates at zero,
the longer the banks have to develop strategies for operating in a
"risk" free capital environment. Given past history, it's only a
matter of time (when, not if) until the banks blow the economy up yet again.
Low rates directly benefit the banks and large corporate sectors of the
economy. They can borrow at historic low rates whereas the average citizen has
no capability of obtaining such funding. While mortgage rates have moved to
levels we have not seen in a decades, the corresponding tightening in loan
qualification standards means that many cannot take advantage of them. Profits
to the largest businesses and no tangible benefit to the American citizen - can
you see a pattern developing?
The Fed will eventually be faced with a
quandary of enormous proportions. Either raise rates and suffer the wrath of a
capital allocation system that has spent the better part of 5 years devising
the most profitable ways to game that system, or keep rates at or near zero and
continue favoring the largest and wealthiest businesses in America over the
working class. I fear the Fed may be secretly planning to permanently lower
rates because I cannot frankly see any other way out of their dilemma.
Let's talk about employment in America,
or more correctly, the problem with employment in America.
The latest government report shows a
9.4% rate of unemployment. While that statistic is down from 9.8% from the
previous month, it probably reflects people actually dropping out of the labor
force and not gains in employment. They drop out when their discouragement
level becomes so high it is unbearable for them to keep trying. Unbearable for
them to keep trying to seek gainful employment. Is this the America we really
want?
The latest report shows that 103,000
jobs were created. This is not even near enough to take up the new workers
entering the work force, let alone put back to work the tens of millions (yes
that's right....tens of millions) of people who have lost their jobs and are
seeking work. I can't believe this is happening in America. It's sickening.
Record profits and cash balances for America's biggest businesses and no
employment opportunities for the working class.
Unemployment compensation was extended
to 99 weeks for those seeking work. But what was missing was any sort of
connection between these benefits and actually re-training these folks for
careers that may be in demand. If a worker is laid off due to economic
circumstances, chances are his line of work or skillset is not in demand
anymore. Why in the world are we not getting these folks into new careers? I
know for some it is a stretch to think that an educated IT worker may now have
to re-train as a health care worker or a nursing home assistant, but at some
point in this vicious cycle you have to let the free market work.
We currently 'import' people from all
over the world to staff our hospitals and nursing homes and I sometimes wonder
why we are not putting able bodied Americans to work instead of just sending
them 99 weeks of unemployment checks while they go through the futile exercise
of trying to re-live their past glories. The reason, of course, is that these
jobs pay much less than their former occupations and then they wouldn't be able
to afford that damn McMansion anymore. You do see it all goes back to the banks
and their bad loans. When does it all end? The Fed believes that more inflation
is the answer to unemployment in America. How about you?
To be constructive in my final
analysis, I recommend we do the following things NOW to get this country back
on the path to economic opportunity for all, and not just those who already
have it:
The
Outlook for Inflation Inflation Trader ‘Retail Sales was
softer-than-expected (+0.6%, +0.5% ex-auto, plus downward revisions, versus
0.8%/0.7% expected), Industrial Production stronger-than-expected (+0.8% versus
+0.5%), and CPI a smidge above expectations (maintaining 0.8% y/y on core, and
rising to 1.5% y/y on headline). More on CPI later.
“Close
enough!” cried the equity traders, who subsequently put up prices 0.7% on the
day, to 28-month highs in the S&P. Bond traders also felt the balance
favored a stronger economy and faster price increases, but moved yields only a
few basis points higher with the 10y note to 3.33%. Inflation swaps curiously
softened 2-5bps despite the reasonably sunny outlook for carry; some traders
and investors feel the inflation market is a bit frothy right now – which it
is, but supply is tight and I am not sure I’d be very aggressive about shorting
inflation-linked bonds even at these valuations.
With Friday’s
trading, the Jan-2011 TIPS have matured. The yield of the bond over its
lifetime is a picture of the economy of the 2000s (see Chart, click to
enlarge, source MorganMarkets). The recession of the early part of the
decade shows up clearly, as does the expansion from 2004-07; the dip in late
2007 as the developing recession became apparent was followed by the spike as
Lehman collapsed and balance sheets became allergic to anything except TBills.
It was clearly the buying opportunity of the last few decades in fixed-income,
as the ongoing crisis was more consistent with sub-zero real yields, and the
issue subsequently rallied nearly 700 basis points in 15 months from December
2008 to March 2010.
Jan 11s, we'll
miss ye.
So now, let’s
talk about CPI.
Core CPI was
+0.092% month-on-month; the annual rate of change rose slightly to +0.804%. I’d
mentioned Friday the potential for a surprise higher in the monthly change
because of the reversal of last month’s seasonal adjustment quirk (which, in
November, held the monthly change down). This didn’t happen,
and my suspicion is that the main part of the effect will actually be seen in this
month: January 2010’s seasonally-adjusted change in core CPI
was a rather surprising -0.14%, which accounts for most of the difference in
the seasonally-adjusted and non-seasonally-adjusted year-on-year series. We
will have to wait a month to see.
But that is
just sharp-pencil trivia for the bow-tied set. The bottom line is that the
year-on-year change in core CPI is now rising. The headline figure did surprise
on the upside, printing +0.505% to put the year-on-year rise at +1.496%. This
was accomplished mostly through the rise in commodities (gasoline contributed
0.37% to the headline number, so with core+gasoline you have almost all of the
month’s change), and more of that is to come over the next few months.
Perhaps more
surprising is that the second-largest contribution came from housing,
which added 0.08% to the overall figure and therefore accounts for just about
all of the rise in core CPI. This is remarkable – it was the largest such
contribution in years. This is probably a reasonable time for a step back and a
re-think about the overall outlook for inflation.
The
Outlook For Inflation
Current
Conditions:
The basic
pricing conditions in the United States at present are:
Surprisingly, housing is now contributing to
inflation.
To my surprise - although anticipated by my models -
core ex-housing has regressed to the core number rather than the other way
around.
Base Forecast:
Aggregated models of core inflation and one which
separately forecasts housing inflation both project rising inflation going
forward. The average of the models is 1.5% for 2011 core inflation.
Interestingly, the model that separates out housing inflation projects 1.8%,
but then converges in 2012.
The main influences on the 2011 inflation outlook are
the late-2008 spike in money supply, the decline in the dollar over 2009, and
the level of core inflation in late 2010. It is important to realize that there
are long lags in the pass-through of monetary policy to
inflation. Most of the broad currents of 2011 inflation have long since been
formed. Policymakers are right now working on policies that will influence 2012
and 2013 inflation, but not much will drastically change the outlook for core
inflation in 2011.
Risks to the Outlook:
However, the model is not “fully specified.” That is,
not every possible influence on inflation is included in the model – mostly
because there are all kinds of influences that I can’t imagine, or because some
influences operate with variable lags. For example, my models do not include
consumer expectations of inflation. Partly, this is because I don’t think they
have a lot to do with inflation, but the Federal Reserve thinks they are very
important and if they’re right, my model will miss inflation zigzags that are
caused by changes in consumer expectations and not captured in other variables.
I also do not model changes in money velocity directly, but this can be as
important or even more important than the level of the money stock itself.
The risks to the outlook have been generally to the
upside over the last year or so, but seem to be somewhat more balanced now that
core ex-housing has decelerated. Of course, when we are near the lows we should
expect that inflation feels saggy and that the risks seem more
balanced. Here are what I see as the main risks to the outlook.
Downward Risks
Upward Risks
Source: Financial Times, Jan 13, 2011
I’ll end there. The bottom line is that the 2011
trajectory will be to roughly a doubling of core inflation with a good chance
of headline figures outpacing the rise in core (and perhaps significantly). The
less-stable pricing environment will also likely produce a larger jump in perceived
inflation. There are both upward and downward risks to this forecast, but the
upward risks in my view predominate – especially in the medium- and long-term
outlooks.
The bond market is closed today, Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, but on Tuesday the Empire Manufacturing (Consensus: 13.00 from 10.57) report is due out. The next regular installment of this comment will be on Wednesday morning.’
John
Hussman: Borrowing Returns Hussman ‘As a reminder of how we approach market
valuation, we strongly believe that securities are a claim to a stream of
future cash flows that can actually be expected to be delivered to investors
over time. As a result, we have little sympathy (and history demonstrates
little sympathy) for the popular but misguided practice of applying arbitrary
valuation multiples to forward analyst estimates of earnings. Generally, these
"forward earnings" estimates fail to normalize for fluctuations in
profit margins, return on equity, and other factors that have historically
driven short-term earnings temporarily above and below levels that that would
have a stable, proportional relationship with the present value of subsequent
cash flows. Forward operating earnings estimates are more volatile and more
influenced by recent short-term behavior than can properly be used as a basis
for valuation, and the resulting earnings "misses" can be
particularly extreme at turning points.In the graph below, you'll notice that
the prior peak for S&P 500 trailing net earnings has often been a
reasonable "rule of thumb" estimate of normalized earnings, but in
recent years, temporary spikes in profit margins have periodically driven peak
earnings briefly above properly normalized levels. For that reason, as I wrote
several years ago, prior peak earnings have become increasingly unreliable.
This is particularly true given the actual destruction of book value and
revenue in recent years. It's certainly possible to debate the precise level of
normalized earnings here, but somewhere in the $70-$75 range, which is where we
are at present, is roughly accurate on a trailing net basis. Our
estimates also assume continued future long-term growth of slightly more than
6% annually, as reflected by the red channels.
[chart]
Importantly, since our normalized figure tends to run with earnings peaks rather
than earnings troughs, the corresponding multiple applicable to these earnings
has historically been less than 14 (and was actually closer to 12 in pre-bubble
data, which was typically associated with long-term total returns near 10%
annually). Since "forward operating" earnings are typically about 20%
higher than trailing net, the resulting historical P/E "norms" should
also be adjusted accordingly (which analysts rarely do). None of this is to say
that the earnings peak during the current economic cycle has to be limited to
the present level of normalized earnings - just that more elevated earnings
would not be an appropriate basis on which to compute the long-term value of
stocks.’
The
Teflon Market Is Here [ Just ask the ‘Teflon Don’ … oh, right … he’s dead …The
pervasively corrupt frauds on wall street, the fed, and the u.s. government are
desperate to evade their unequivocal responsibility and overdue punishment
(prosecution, fines, jail, disgorgement) for the last and ongoing (toxic, worthless paper assets now marked to
anything) fraud diverting attention from their own culpability for the prior
bubble/crash and on-going financial / economic crisis, america’s worst economy
and prospects in america’s relatively short history with this contrived bubble
exceeding that precursor to the last crash; “this has never happened before, in
82 years of history”, and a crash is what’s a-coming. This is nothing short of
pathetic desperation that typifies the last gasp of the dead and dying,
figuratively of course. ] Roche
‘Calling this a “bullish” run might be a bit of an understatement. There has
been an unprecedented bid under the market since August 2010. The Bernanke Put
is well entrenched in everyone’s minds. This week ’s spike in jobless claims
was not enough to cause risk appetite to temper as it likely just reminds
investors that rising claims are what led to QE2 to begin with. Indeed, this is
a Federal Reserve that will not allow equity prices to falter to any
substantial degree. Nominal wealth creation has become the rally cry of a group
of economic thinkers who truly have no idea how to create sustainable economic
growth.
The
stats behind this bull market are even more remarkable than the rally itself
appears. As I noted in December the market literally could not
decline. But the data since then shows an even more untouchable
market (via ZeroHedge):
“As a point of reference the S&P
has been above the 10 day average for 30 days straight, and above the 50 day
average for 92 days straight. What is remarkable are some statistical findings
that pertain to the average’s movement with respect to the SMAs. Sentiment
Trader points out that while as part of the recent surge in the
S&P, the market has gone for “92 days without closing below its 50-day
average, which has been matched only 17 other times since 1928.” Where
it gets scary, is that as pointed out, during this time the market has not
closed below the 10 DMA once during the past 30 days. And as Sentiment Trader
notes, “this has never happened before, in 82 years of history.”
Not much else needs to be said. The
teflon market is here.
Update: Some additional thoughts from Jeff
Saut:
Herb Stein once remarked, “If something
can’t go on forever, it won’t!” And, the current “buying stampede” is now 90
sessions long, making it the longest one ever recorded in my notes of more than
40 years. Combine that with many other “finger to wallet” indicators suggesting
caution and I am currently just sitting. Indeed, sometimes me sits and thinks
and sometimes me just sits. As the astute Lowry’s organization opines, “Our
last short term sell-signal for aggressive traders was triggered on December
30th, when the 14-day Stochastic indicator dropped from overbought levels and
crossed below its moving average. A conventional short term sell-signal, for
culling selective stocks [from portfolios], was registered as of
today’s market close (last Friday), when our Short Term Index dropped a total
of more than 6 points from its recent high of 104.” ‘
Don't Fight the Fed: Dave's Daily ‘To be sure, companies like Apple and Intel are doing well
overall. But some companies are doing well due to ongoing Fed financial support
like banks and some auto companies. QE policies are designed to prop stock
markets higher, and with volume light, the job is made easier. Therefore, when
worse than expected economic data is released (Jobless Claims, Consumer
Confidence, Retail Sales, CPI, Chinese tightening and etc) investors toss that
information aside aided by more POMO.
More maddening to more thoughtful people are the lies being bandied about
particularly with inflation data. Food and energy prices are much higher and
eliminating them from the data due to imagined "volatility" is beyond
mere spin. When I was a young college student, my statistics professor gave to
each student a book: "How
to Lie with Statistics." I think it must remain required reading for
BLS, Treasury and Fed officials among others. Let's remember, the government
has a huge entitlement liability geared to inflation statistics. They're
conflicted…The Fed is just repeating what's worked for them before--another
bubble…’
Bullish
Sentiment Dips, But Optimism Is Still High Rotblut
‘Bullish sentiment declined 3.5 percentage points to 52.3% in the latest AAII
Sentiment Survey. Despite the dip, optimism that stock prices will rise stayed
above its historical average of 39% for the 19th consecutive week, matching the
streak set in the second half of 2004.
Neutral
sentiment, expectations that stock prices will be essentially flat over the next
six months, slipped 1.6 percentage points to 24.2%. This was the 23rd
consecutive week that neutral sentiment has been below its historical average
of 31%.
Bearish
sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months,
rose 5.2 percentage points to 23.4%. Though this is a four-week high for
pessimism, pessimism is below its historical average for the 16th time in the
past 18 weeks.
Though
there was a decline this week, bullish sentiment remains in the range that has
largely held over the past six weeks. This has resulted in the eight-week
moving average reaching 53%, its highest level since January 6, 2005. High
levels of bullish sentiment have been correlated with market reversals, but
other indicators should be considered before making a market forecast.
As
noted above, bullish sentiment has been above its historical average for 19
consecutive weeks, matching the streak set during the period of August 26
through December 30, 2004. A record streak of 42 consecutive weeks occurred during
the period of May 29, 2003, through March 11, 2004, when investors realized
that a recovery from the decade’s first bear market was fully underway.
This week’s special question asked AAII members about their expectations for fourth-quarter earnings. Most respondents expected profits to be good with companies continuing to experience growth. There was not a consensus on how much profits would be up, however.
After seeing the price of gold continue to climb and
reading all the ...http://blogs.forbes.com/.../gary-shilling-says-housing-will-get-much-worse Gary Shilling
Sees `Significant' Stock Selloff Within 12 Months ...Nov 12, 2010 ... Gary
Shilling , who predicted the U.S. housing collapse, says the stock market
is overvalued and foresees a “significant” selloff within a ... ]
Early in 2008, in his monthly Insight report, Shilling laid out
13 investment themes for the year ahead that proved to be 100% dead-on
accurate--a perfect 13-for-13--and they proved extremely profitable for his Insight
readers.
Here's a scorecard to show how Shilling's forecast
from 2008 has panned out:
1. Sell or
sell short homebuilder stocks and bonds.
2. If you
plan to sell your home, second home or investment home anytime soon, do so
yesterday.
3. Sell
short subprime mortgages.
4. Sell or
sell short housing-related stocks.
5. Sell or
sell short consumer discretionary spending companies.
6. Sell
low-grade fixed-income securities.
7. Sell or
avoid most commercial real estate.
8. Short
commodities.
9. Sell or
sell short emerging market equities.
10. Sell
emerging country bonds.
11. Buy
the dollar before long.
12. Sell
or sell short U.S. stocks in general.
13. Buy
long Treasury bonds.
Gary Shilling released 12 New
Strategies for thriving during the market melt-down. We call
it his "Bear Market Tool Kit."
You can access his recommendations when you subscribe to Gary Shilling's
Insight. And by subscribing now, you’ll ensure that you will receive Gary
Shilling’s investment strategies for 2011 and beyond.
Are the brokers and television analysts who
constantly parrot the "conventional wisdom" paying serious attention
to any of Shilling's predictions? Probably not. Gary looks for hidden investment opportunities, which often
means going against the conventional wisdom. And when you learn more about
Gary's credentials and his track record, you will realize that everyone who
doesn't pay attention to what he says might end up with some serious egg on
their faces.
Gary has twice been
ranked as Wall Street’s top economist by polls in Institutional Investor;
he was also named the country’s number one Commodity Trader Advisor by Futures
magazine. And in 2003, MoneySense ranked him as the 3rd best stock
market forecaster, right behind Warren Buffett. He also challenges the
consensus in appearances on CNBC.
Gary also has a long-standing reputation for
independent thought...and for getting it right. Back in 1969, he correctly
predicted, to the surprise of many, the 1969-1970 recession. In the early
1970s, he stood alone in predicting the severe 1973-1975 global recession. In
the late 1970s, when double-digit inflation was raging, Gary was nearly unique
in forecasting dwindling inflation rates as well as the wonderful stock and
bond markets that lay ahead.
Gary has been running away from the
herd for years, and he’s been nearly alone in making some early, and accurate,
calls:
•In early 1999, in the midst of the Internet stock
boom, Gary Shilling was nearly alone in warning of a collapse in tech stocks.
In January 2000, with stocks still strong, Gary Shilling said a major bear
market was at hand. In November 2000, he foresaw total declines of 30%-40% in
the Dow Industrials, 40%-50% in the S&P 500 and 70%-80% in the Nasdaq—right
on target with the overall decline of 35% in the Dow, 49% in the S&P and 78%
in the Nasdaq.
•While bulls were talking up housing, Gary was nearly
alone for years in warning of a collapse well before the rest of the crowd saw
any signs that something was amiss.
Wouldn’t you have benefited from such insights? Gary
Shilling's Insight readers were not only well-prepared when the bad news
began to unfold, but were also equipped to make money while others suffered.
}
Rotblut
cont’d
Here
is a sampling of the responses:
Historical Averages:
The AAII Sentiment Survey has been
conducted weekly since July 1987 and asks AAII members whether they think stock
prices will rise, remain essentially flat, or fall over the next six months.
The survey period runs from Thursday (12:01 a.m.) to Wednesday (11:59 p.m.).
The survey and its results are available online.’
Just
One Bank
Failure Today There was only one closure today which brings the total number of bank
failures for 2011 to three. Oglethorpe Bank in Brunswick, Georgia was closed
by ...
Bond Panic to Weigh on Stocks Cadora ‘Despite the stock market's seemingly inexorable rise,
clues to a coming crisis continue to build, promising not only to bring down
equity prices sooner rather than later, but also to make the correction much
more severe than most expect. As readers of my Member Letter know, I have been
anticipating a dollar crisis to visit markets sometime in the first half of
2011, spurred by an exodus from bonds as the Federal Reserve continues its
malfeasant policies. In now seems the dollar crisis will be paired with a panic
in the municipal bond market.
[chart](Click
to enlarge)
The Illinois legislature's decision to raise taxes as a means to fill its
budget gap sets an ominous tone for the municipal bond market. The message is
clear: politicians will attempt to drain taxpayer resources rather than control
outrageous spending habits. In other words, the root of the budget problem will
be ignored. This direction is bearish not only for munis, but also for the
economy.
A muni bond meltdown will be detrimental to the dollar in more than one way,
not the least of which comes from the dollar's chief persecutor, Ben Bernanke.
Despite Bernanke's persistent denials that the Fed would step in to bail out a
state government, pressure will grow on him to do so as the crisis worsens. It
will be interesting to see if his political will fails him again.
Higher interest rates from bond markets ... both municipal and Federal ... will
do no favors for the stock market. In fact, a sense of crisis will exacerbate
an equity decline. I have proposed to readers that when this crisis hits,
stocks will fall in tandem with the dollar rather than being supported by its
decline. That period of positive correlation may be just in front of us.
The stock
market itself is looking quite exhausted. According to my cycle analysis,
equities are due for a dive into a yearly low. Several market indicators also
suggest the time is ripe for stocks to roll over.
[chart]
(Click to enlarge)
[chart]
(Click to enlarge)
[chart]
(Click to enlarge)
Consider also
that the respectable work performed over at sentimentrader.com shows several
sentiment extremes ... all bearish for the equity outlook ... including a very
large gap between smart money and dumb money confidence. The stage is set for a
significant stock market correction and this week's breakdown in the muni bond
market may provide the needed catalyst.’
Tech-Heavy
ETF Hits Short-Term Extreme - High Probability of Reverting to Mean? Cowder ‘It was just another day in the park for the
bulls. The continued push since the gap became higher on Jan. 3 has managed to
push the tech-heavy QQQQ into a short-term “very overbought” extreme with an
RSI (2) at 98.4. As I always state, when an ETF typically reaches an extreme of
this manner, the market fades over the short-term (1-3 days). A move that
pushes QQQQ lower would likely close the gap at $54.62, which would mean a 3.5%
loss for the QQQQ.
A
move like this would certainly be advantageous for my current open positions in
both the High-Probability and Mean-Reversion strategy. Yes, I took a position
later in the afternoon in the tech-heavy index and so far I like the
probability on this one. All of the short-term technical indicators that I
follow are reading extremes, so I had no choice but to take a position.
Intel
(INTC) comes out after the bell tomorrow and
should be quite the catalyst for the QQQQ’s next move. I would love to say that
the next move is definitely going to be bearish over the short-term, but as we
all know in trading, even when M-R probability is leaning heavily towards your
side, there are no guarantees.
Short-Term High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator – as of
close 1/11/10
Benchmark ETFs
Sector ETFs
International ETFs
Commodity ETFs
Ultra Extremes
Disclosure: I am short QQQQ.
Initial
Jobless Claims Rise 35,000 ‘NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The number of Americans filing unemployment
claims unexpectedly rose last week, the Labor Department said early Thursday.
The advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims increased by 35,000 to
445,000 in the week ended Jan.8, the highest level since October. Economists
were expecting initial claims to drop to 405,000, according to consensus
estimates from Bloomberg. Estimates ranged from 400,000 to 415,000…’
An
Amazing Statistic About Our Abnormal Market [ The only thing amazing is
that no one has come forth to state how preposterous this ‘modern day miracle
of computerized programming technology’ can make unreality so appealingly and
seemingly real that all are swept away with this tsunami of b*** s*** until
it’s too late, which as preceding other crashes, seems furthest from thoughts,
mind, and plausibility until invariably, grim reality comes a-calling and this
scenario as before will end as before especially quite badly. ] ‘Rev Shark
at Realmoney.com posted an amazing statistic which I believe he found at
sentimenttrader.com.
According to Sentimentrader.com, the S&P 500 has
now gone 92 days without closing below its 50-day moving average. That has only
happened 17 times since 1928. But what is really amazing is that over the past 30 days, we haven't
closed below the 10-day moving average even once. That has never happened in
the last 82 years of market history.
As I've stated multiple times, it is not the rally we
are experiencing that is strange, it is the total inability to pullback at any
point that is boggling to anyone who has more than 6 months of market history
under their belt.
Don't forget in September and October we did not
close below the 13 day moving average for 2 months in a row. Indeed other than
a hiccup caused by Ireland, we might be working on the 5th month of no
pullbacks.
This is an abnormal market. Anyone using historical
context to trade is lost at sea. Congratulations to Mr. Brian Sack, the
Bernank, and his POMO crew for
making a mockery of traditional somewhat 'free' markets
Nevertheless, balance sheet policy can still lower
longer-term borrowing costs for many households and businesses, and it adds to
household wealth by keeping asset prices higher than they otherwise would be.
Amen Brian. In the future I'd just eliminate the
middle man (primary dealers) and just buy SPY futures directly on a daily
basis, much more efficient than our current charade. Granted that removes the
Wizard of Oz effect (don't look behind the curtain - it's magic), but at least
it would be intellectually honest. (I know, I know - primary dealers don't
"buy stock directly" blah blah)
[Jan 6, 2010: Charles Biderman of TrimTabs Claims US Government Supporting Stock Market]’
13%
Thursday - When Will You Capitulate? Davis ‘It’s starting! [chart] The last of
the bears are now capitulating. We’re hearing it in Member Chat and we’re
reading it in analyst reports and we’re seeing the fund managers on TV – it is
very out of vogue to be a bear.
Just a few weeks ago, I pointed out to Members how
few bears remained by saying "Look to your left, look to your right,
look in front of you and look behind you – you would be the only bear."
That was way back when "only" 20% of investors were bearish
– as of yesterday, we lost 1/3 of those poor creatures and now only 13% of the
market is bearish. Now you can look diagonally as well and you’ll STILL be the
only bear!
Certainly the
market seems to be proving the primary axiom of "You can’t fight the
Fed." Pretty much no matter what happens, the market goes up. Bryan
Leighton from Traddr! makes a good point saying: "It’s a neutral
to positive market and the only thing that can change that is some sort of
surprise event out of Europe or out of Asia or something major out of the US
that the Fed is not ready for or prepared for. If they are prepared for it – it
will not happen – it will not have a major effect on the markets."
That’s the
reality we’re dealing with out there. As long as the Fed and their pet IBanks
are running the markets and as long as volume is at 3-year lows, allowing the
TradeBots to control each move – then it is wrong to be a bear. But, is it 87%
wrong? 87% bullish sentiment isn’t just "very" bullish –
it’s a new, historic high. It’s like going to a
fight where the entire crowd only cheers for one guy which, like
professional wrestling, would be an automatic indication that the game must be fake, Fake, FAKE!
As you can see
from this longer-term chart, we are as extremely bullish now as we were
extremely bearish in the two worst market events of the past quarter-century.
Much the way that Black Monday of 1987 and the Crashes of 2008/9 were unique
buying opportunities at 15% bullish, this may be a unique shorting opportunity
at 15% bearish that you are not likely to see again for decades.
As an
optimist, it
was easy for me to say 'buy' when I was one of the 15% still bullish in March
of 2009 – don’t expect the same conviction from me about selling in January
of 2011. We are generally bullish. We are long-term bullish. BUT – and it’s a Big But (not to
mention blasphemy) – I don’t think The Bernank is either all powerful or
infallible and I do believe that "some sort of surprise event out of
Europe or out of Asia or something major out of the US" could happen
at any moment so, as
I said yesterday – we remain short-term cautious between now and April,
even as the rest of the market marches towards 99% bullish around us.
This does not
stop us from making some bullish plays – in fact Scott
of Sabrient just reviewed the 4 Dark Horse Trader’s Hedge plays we’ve been
tracking in a virtual portfolio since the fall and the only problem we’ve been
having is they are too successful as the stocks have been outpacing
our expectations and we have to let go of both Veeco Instruments (VECO)
(with a 36% profit in 5 months) and World Acceptance Corp. (WRLD)
(with a 25% profit in 3 months) because the stocks performed so well that
they’re not worth adjusting our hedges anymore. That’s why we like our bullish
to neutral Buy/Write Strategy, we can’t be harmed to the upside, only forced to
take our profits off the table and find anther partner to dance with – which
isn’t a bad forced discipline on stocks that are running ahead of 100% annual
gains.
Could
we make more money by just "going for it" and being 100% bullish?
Sure we could, and once inflation takes hold and begins to snowball the markets
higher, that is exactly what we’re going to do but, as I have pointed out
before – missing the first 100% move up in the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange wasn’t a
big deal since it was followed by moves of 1,000%, 1,000,000%, 1,000,000,000%
and 1,000,000,000,000% before the markets finally calmed down. On the other
hand, people who participated in Brazil’s 100% run in 8 months that began in
October of 2007 found themselves right back where they started just 4 months
later.
We participated
100% bullishly since our June
26th Buy List, which was followed by July 7th’s "9
Fabulous Dow Plays Plus a Chip Shot," July 26th's "Turning
$10K to $50K by Jan 21st" (halfway there), August 29th’s "Defending
Your Portfolio With Dividends" and September 3rd’s "September’s
Dozen." That’s how we played the rally from S&P 1,030
to 1,160 (10%).
On October
3rd, I put up "October’s
Overbought Eight" and they were AMZN, BIDU, CMG,
FSLR,
MOS,
NFLX, PCLN
and TLT. Needless to say,
we got stopped out of most of those pretty quickly and that led to a Q4 version
of "Defending
Your Portfolio With Dividends" on October 23rd (S&P
1,180) and we rode those out through December 11th, when we got tired of
waiting for a correction and (at S&P 1,240) went with "Breakout
Defense – 5,000% in 5 Trades or Less" and those were followed
with December 25th’s (S&P 1,256) "Secret
Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2011" also with a few trades
aimed at making around 500% should the rally continue.
So why is it,
with only one bearish Member Portfolio in 7 months, that I feel like I might be
too bearish? Well, for one thing – I’m getting lonely. I work on the Web and my
colleagues in the MSM and the Blogosphere have pretty much all found religion
and developed an almost unshakable faith in The Bernank, in China, in Corporate
America, in Commodities – you name it, they think it can’t go wrong. So much so
that the VIX, which measures the market’s expectation of stock market
volatility over the next 30 day period, has dropped all the way to 16.
Now 16 isn’t
"low" for the VIX, it’s actually about the historic average.
It is, however a far cry from 89 in 2008 and 48 as recently as May and if you
tell me I now have less to worry about today than I did in 2007 when we were
still in the middle of a major rally and 60% of investors were bullish and the
VIX was in the mid-20s, I have to ask you why? 10% more people are unemployed
than in 2007, the World is $18Tn more in debt than it was then, Inflation has
tripled (although you can argue that playing inflation IS the bullish premise),
Global GDP projections are 1/2 of what they were, Banks are unstable, States
are unstable and Nations are unstable yet I am supposed to buy Netflix (NFLX) (we
are short) with a p/e multiple of 71.50 or AMZN with a p/e of 74.50 (we want to
be short) based primarily on my faith that the Great
Bernanke in the sky would not let anything bad happen to my investments?
Well
sorry, call me an atheist, call it blasphemy, but I do not have 100% faith in
the Great Bernanke in the sky. I may have had 60% faith and I may have even had
70% faith but I DO NOT have 87% faith that Bernanke will overcome all those
MASSIVE, SCARY, DANGEROUS Global obstacles that are still littering the
investing landscape and take us to the promised land of S&P 1,500. Does
that make me bearish or sensibly cautious? When 87% of the market is bullish,
then sensibly cautious looks a lot like bearish, doesn’t it?
Perhaps that’s
why people like the right Reverend Jim Cramer and his Cult of the MoMo Stocks
irritate me lately. That man has FAITH! Well, either faith or he’s being paid
off by fund managers to pimp their stocks so they can dump them on Jimmy’s
fanatical followers while they pick up whatever he’s chasing people out of on
the cheap – it’s hard to tell….
I was the lone
bullish preacher in the wilderness in March of 2009 so I have seen the promised
land of recovery and, unlike Dr. King, who said "I may not get
there with you" and was, unfortunately, right, I fully
intend to get there and I want us all to get there with our portfolios intact
so we will continue to hedge the market following the sound policy advocated by
Ronald Reagan when dealing with the Russians, which was: "Trust — but
verify."
I
pointed out on the first trading day of 2011 that we expected January to be
heavily manipulated right up to expiration. Assuming Lloyd and Co. were lazy
and using the same Alpha 2 Bot program they ran last January, we were looking
for a 300 point run that tops out at 11,850 on the Dow and 1,285 on the S&P
and we hit goal on the S&P yesterday, to the penny of where I said we’d be
on Jan 3rd – trusted and verified. Now we will see how the next 7 market
sessions play out into expiration day. If we pop higher – we’re off the pattern
and we’ll have to consider leaving the 13%, shouting hallelujah and joining
the crowd but, if we flatline or fail to hold – then you can expect the first
Member Portfolio of 2011 to be a bearish one!’
E.U.
seeks to expand bailout fund to calm markets (Washington Post) [Nyaradi
The
Sick Man Tries to Save the Terminally Ill (
I can’t recall the specific phrase, but applied
here it goes something like this, ‘Japan with
a debt to GDP ratio of 200% is going to save Europe, but who’s going to save
Japan’. Let’s get real
here as the u.s. house-building with decks, as in Titanics and reshuffled /
rearranged deck chairs, of cards, as in ‘houses of cards’, becomes insanely
ubiquitous worldwide and will systemically (now globally) end quite badly. This
is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits since there is much,
much worse to come. ) Nyaradi ‘It was a quiet
day yesterday for ETFs and stocks in world markets as most exchange traded
funds recovered recent losses amid reduced tensions in Europe.Incredibly,
Japan’s intent to buy European bonds was the catalyst for the more positive
atmosphere in Europe, and as the title of this article suggests, this is truly
the sick man trying to save the terminally ill…see infra… ’ ] Nations
expand the scope of the euro-zone bailout fund, saying more support is
necessary as investors worry about the prospects of Portugal and Spain.
The
Sick Man Tries to Save the Terminally Ill [
I can’t
recall the specific phrase, but applied here it goes something like this,
‘Japan with a debt to GDP ratio of 200% is going to save Europe, but who’s
going to save Japan’. Let’s get real here as the u.s. house-building with
decks, as in Titanics and reshuffled / rearranged deck chairs, of cards, as in
‘houses of cards’, becomes insanely ubiquitous worldwide and will systemically
(now globally) end quite badly. This is an especially great opportunity to sell
/ take profits since there is much, much worse to come. ] Nyaradi
‘It was a quiet day yesterday for ETFs and stocks in world markets as
most exchange traded funds recovered recent losses amid reduced tensions in
Europe.
Incredibly,
Japan’s intent to buy European bonds was the catalyst for the more positive
atmosphere in Europe, and as the title of this article suggests, this is truly
the sick man trying to save the terminally ill.
The
soap opera in Europe, like every soap opera, is getting boring. It starts with
rising interest rates and credit default swap rates which is met by the
concerned government proclaiming that they’re totally solvent and will never need
a bailout which ends up to be exactly what happens.
Portugal
will be selling 10 year notes today, Wednesday, and its ten year debt has stood
largely above 7% in recent days. When rates in Greece and Ireland hit these
levels, bailouts came within days in both cases. Italy and Spain go to the bond
trough this week, as well, and so it will be an active few days in Europe.
Bottom
line; get ready for an ECB bailout of Portugal coming soon, possibly this week.
At
home, we move into earnings season, Illinois is moving towards an income tax
increase to deal with its budget deficit while Governor Brown in California
begins to sell his austerity plans.
Daily Moves for Major ETFs:
Dow
Jones Industrials: (NYSEArca: DIA) +0.30%
Russell
2000: (NYSEArca: IWM) -0.47%
NASDAQ
100: (NasdaqGM: QQQQ) +0.41%
S&P
500 Index: (NYSEArca: SPY) +0.37%
MSCI
Emerging Markets:(NYSEArca: EEM) +1.06%
MSCI
China (NYSEArca: FXI) +1.13%
Gold
(NYSEArca: GLD) +0.59%
7-10
Year Treasuries: (NYSEArca: IEF) -0.39%
20+
Year Treasuries: (NYSEArca: TLT) -0.56%
VIX
-3.71%
U.S.
Dollar (NYSE:Arca: (NYSE:Arca: UUP) -0.08%
The
major indexes remain overvalued and overbought on a technical and fundamental
basis and so Wall Street Sector Selector remains in “Yellow Flag” status,
expecting choppy to lower prices ahead.’
Lunch with Marc Faber: Predictions and Insights Sinn – ‘Tuesday I had the pleasure of meeting Marc
Faber for the first time and I thoroughly enjoyed his detailed, logical, and
smooth-flowing presentation. Faber is good on television, but he is much better
live as he is more open with regard to his disdain for Bernanke, Greenspan,
Krugman et al. He even ended the Q&A portion by saying ‘I hope you have a
better idea of what to do with your wealth, but what you do with your
client’s wealth is another story’. Below I have listed the main concepts that
Faber’s presentation impressed on my thinking:
Key takeaways
from Marc Faber Luncheon- January 11, 2011
The Eurozone
is worse off than even the U.S. at this point because they lack a single fiscal
authority. It is difficult to implement a federal/super-sovereign approach in
the Eurozone due to challenge of implementing a single taxing authority with
supervisory and enforcement powers.
When asked
about the possibility of dividing the Eurozone into a north and south euro, he
dismissed this idea as being very unlikely.
The most
likely path forward for the Eurozone will be for the ECB to continue to
monetize the sovereign debt of the weaker Member States. He also stressed the
point that the ultimate solution will be highly political and unpredictable and
that there will be plenty of ‘noise’ on the way to the final outcome.
Faber is concerned
about a slowdown in China and India over the next 3-6 months. China currently
has negative real interest rates and may need to raise rates over 100 basis
points in order to bring the real interest rate back near zero. He also
mentioned that he had recently reduced his investment exposure to China and
India.
Faber seemed
most bullish on the price of oil and pointed out that Chinese consumers consume
only 2 barrels of oil per capita/year while US consumers consume over 20
barrels of oil per capita/year.
Faber pointed
out how under leveraged Asian consumers are compared to Western European/ US
consumers. He cited that only 10% of Vietnamese have a bank account which
demonstrates how much room there is for leveraging in Asia.
·He was VERY
bearish on U.S. government debt long term and even pointed to a chart of US
10-year note yields over the past 60 years. He then waved the laser pointer to
indicate that yields will eventually go past the early 1980s highs.
·He
illustrated the performance of Mexican government bonds and the peso currency
from the late 1970s to 1988. The peso lost 98% of its value vs. the US dollar
and Mexican bonds performed horribly while Mexican equities priced in US
dollars ended the 10-year period slightly positive.
Finally, Faber
pointed out that there is potential for geopolitical tensions between China and
India as they compete for natural resources (oil, water). He pointed out that
China and India share the Brahmaputra River. There has been continued
speculation that China plans to build a dam on the river in order to divert
water to the North of the country (Doug Kass also mentioned the possibility of
a military conflict between China and India over this river in his year end
predictions for 2011). In addition, Faber explained that China isn’t happy
about the US recommendation that India join the UN Security Council.
Oddly enough,
I agree with almost everything Dr. Faber discussed. However, I doubt that gold
will undergo a 20% correction this year (I would say 10-15% is the maximum
unless there were to be a complete paradigm shift in monetary policy from the
ECB/Fed). The crowd was most amused by Dr. Faber’s disdainful comments about
Messieurs Bernanke, Greenspan, and Krugman.
While I agree
with the latter two, I believe Chairman Bernanke is doing the only thing he can
do with the terrible hand he has been dealt. I also believe the possibility of
a military confrontation between China and India is extremely remote due to the
potential magnitude of the consequences. Dr. Faber managed to cause me to be
even more concerned about the state of the US fiscal situation than I already
was. I didn’t think that was possible, but when he explained the US would be
using 30% of total tax revenues just to pay interest on the national debt
within a few years, I realized the situation was more serious than even I had
realized. Disclosure: I
am long GLD.’
Cupcake
Capitalism Offers Hope for New Bubble: Jonathan Weil Weil
‘The first thing every prospective investor should know about Crumbs Holdings
LLC, which operates 34 cupcake shops, is that there was an error in the first
sentence of its Jan. 10 press release announcing the New York retailer’s
planned public listing on the Nasdaq Stock Market.
Crumbs called
itself the “creator of the gourmet cupcake.” The claim is false. Crumbs didn’t
create the gourmet cupcake. I did, or at least that’s how I choose to remember
it.
It was a
glorious Sunday morning in October 1976. I was six years old. My mom helped me
follow the instructions on a box of Duncan
Hines cake mix. I added Frosted Flakes to the icing, spread the sugary goo
on top of my creations, and dubbed them Jonny’s Chocolate Crunchcakes. They
were Gr-r-reat!
Crumbs
executives say they plan to expand to 200 locations within four years, a
sixfold increase. They’ll have no need for a traditional initial public
offering, though. Crumbs plans to do a reverse merger with a publicly traded
shell company called 57th
Street General Acquisition Corp.
It’s easy to
dismiss the cupcake craze’s arrival on Wall Street as just another
indicator of a world gone mad, because it is. Yet there’s a serious point here,
too. This may be one of the most hopeful signs in a long time that the economic
boom-to- bust cycle may be returning to boom again.
Think about
it. Would a chain of stores selling outsourced $4.50 cupcakes have stood a
chance at luring stock-market investors three years ago, when the banking
crisis was driving the world into a global recession? No way. Yet now the red
velvet carpet is out for the likes of Crumbs Bake Shop. The opportunities for
other entrepreneurs seem endless.
Master Plan
Before long,
sophisticated investors may once again line up to throw money at sure-fire
concepts like iron-on T-shirts and collectible plush toys. This must be good news,
whether you’re a central banker or a maxed-out office worker buying a caramel
apple on credit. It’s evidence that our global economic leaders’ master plan is
working. That would be to spend our way out of the last bubble’s wreckage with
money we don’t have, until we can create a new bubble to wealth-effect our
troubles away.
To be sure,
the news from Crumbs
doesn’t signal an actual bubble, only the promise of one. But it does tempt us
to consider that there may be real bubbles, even monstrous ones, soon. To
accomplish this, we’ll need the titans of industry and finance to remain united
in pressing for the common good. And there’s positive news on this front.
Remorse-Free
Zone
This week
Barclays Plc’s chief executive, Robert Diamond, told
British parliamentarians it’s time for banks to stop apologizing and start
rebuilding confidence. “There was a period of remorse and apology for banks.
That period needs to be over,” he told a House of Commons committee in London.
When this
period of remorse supposedly occurred, I’m not sure. What matters, though, is
that the world now appears to be coming around to Diamond’s way of thinking,
which is that we must all agree to be confident.
Similarly,
last week President Barack
Obama picked a top JPMorgan Chase & Co. banker and former Fannie Mae
board member, William Daley, to be his new chief of staff. Amazingly, hardly
anyone complained. It seems Americans are too busy trying to
figure out how to buy pre-IPO shares of Facebook and Twitter. Distrust of Wall
Street is so 2009.
You also can
see the seeds of this new era in our corporate leaders’ math. The same day
Crumbs said it would go public, Groupon Inc., which claims to have been called
“the fastest growing company ever” by Forbes magazine, issued a press release under this headline: “Groupon Raises,
Like, A Billion Dollars.” Actually the amount was $950 million. But we can all
agree that a billion grabs more attention.
All of which
shows there’s hope for the world’s economy to return quickly to rapid growth,
as long as we work together to figure out how we can get in all these new
bubbles and sell at just the right time, before everyone else figures out when
that is. Then we can be rich again. That is, until the next bust, by which time
we’ll have moved on to even bigger booms.
All we have to
do is believe. Jonathan
Weil is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.) To
contact the writer of this column: Jonathan Weil in New York at [email protected]
‘
Four Financial Farces That Will End in Disaster Summers ‘At this point the news out of the financial world is more insane than
… well, just about anything.
Farce #1: Japan Can Bail Out Anything.
First
off, Japan, which has a debt to GDP ratio of 200%, is bailing out Europe, which
has a smaller but equally disturbing debt problem. Yes, one broke country
(Japan) is now trying to bail out an entire economic union, despite the fact
that it hasn't succeeded in managing its own finances or economy in over 20
years.Indeed, the idea that Japan could bail out anyone when it’s failed to
create any substantial economic growth despite spending trillions of yen should
give you an idea of just how out of control the entire financial system has
become. We are literally in the end game now. Unless Martians come down and
start bailing out Earth, the Great Sovereign Default will be in full effect
within the next six months.
Farce #2: Inflation Is at 1%.
Meanwhile,
Ben Bernanke claims that inflation in the U.S. is at 1%. President Obama has to
maintain that this is a fact with a straight face next week when he meets with
French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who is witnessing food riots in Algeria due
to soaring food prices.The Fed has claimed inflation is under control for
months now, proving that its members must not eat food, drive cars, or know how
to read. Indeed, in order to ignore rising prices in the U.S., you would
literally have to not shop for groceries, not pump gas into your car, not read
the newspaper, and not have access to the Internet or any financial news
outlet.I sincerely hope that the Fed is not run by folks who fit this
description, but after reading the next two farces, I’m not so sure.
Farce #3: QE Is Working.
Various
Fed officials have stepped forward to claim that its Quantitative Easing
program has worked. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I thought the whole purpose of
QE was to lower interest rates.How then do you explain the following? [chart]As
you can see, interest rates have soared since the Fed implemented QE 2. It’s
not like QE has helped the U.S. economy either; food stamp usage has hit new
records since it began.And yet the Fed claims that QE is not only working, but
we need more of it. However, even that farce pales compared to the next and
final financial farce of today’s essay.
Farce #4: The Folks Managing the Fed’s QE Efforts Have No
Investing Experience.
Then,
of course, there’s the recent revelation that the Fed’s monetary policies
involving the purchasing of trillions of U.S. Treasuries are in the hands of
folks aged 26, 29, and 34, none of whom have any investing experience
whatsoever.And they’re in charge of buying up trillions in U.S. debt.If, at
this point, it’s not clear that the entire financial system is not a disaster
waiting to happen, then I don’t know what else to say. Indeed, our entire
system is built on fraud and managed by folks who don’t know what they’re
doing. And if you think they’ll steer us to safety, consider that around the
globe we’re already beginning to see signs of systemic collapse.Indeed, I
believe we are in fact on the verge of another round of deflation which will
take prices down across the board as the U.S. dollar rallies. However, this
period will be short-lived as it will be followed by a U.S. dollar collapse
soon after.At that point, the next stage is the paper currency collapse, the
stage at which inflation accelerates as the U.S. dollar collapses, destroying
purchasing power while inflation hedges explode higher.Some, like the most
popular picks (gold and silver bullion), will record strong gains. However,
others (the ones that 99.9% of the investment world are currently clueless
about), will go absolutely parabolic.’
Volume Still Incredibly Weak: Dave's Daily - ‘Words fail me frankly, but I'll
attempt a posting here knowing volume remains incredibly weak as markets are
supported primarily by Ben's POMO
activities. As the Fed was buying 5-year bonds, the Treasury was selling 3-year
notes--um, left hand, right hand. Markets did get a boost early by an upgrade
of HPQ by UBS combined with easing tensions in the habitually troubled euro
zone. To the latter, the Japanese said they'd be buyers of euro zone debt to
show support for the region. Trouble is, will the EU reciprocate? Alcoa's
earnings report, complex as always, was greeted by some selling. Verizon
announced it would feature the iPhone which led to some light selling of VZ and
AAPL--such is the level of conviction currently…’
Janney Technical Analyst Sees 3-5% Correction In S&P 500
'Looming' Coleman ‘Janney Capital Markets’ technical
analyst Dan
Wantrobski sent a note to
clients Tuesday afternoon saying that he’s moved into the bear’s camp.A 3-5%
correction on the S&P 500 index is “looming,” he added, with the first stop
being the benchmark’s 50-day moving average.The S&P 500’s 50-day moving
average, an often-mentioned short-term indicator, is currently sitting at 1228,
says the analyst.
His main points include:
“The VIX has hit levels that in the past two years
accompanied corrections in the market. True, the VIX could actually breakdown
and head even lower from here- but if it holds support at 15 (currently it’s
17.06), it would suggestive of a market turn, in our opinion,” Wantrobski
wrote.
The worst positioned sectors, he finds, are (with a representative ETF): Retail (XRT), Consumer Staples (XLP), Telecom (IYZ) and Gold (GLD).Of course, a close proxy for the blue chip benchmark is the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY).’
Sam
Stovall: Extreme Bullishness a Concern - Stocks Will Probably Correct Levy ‘Sam Stovall is chief investment strategist at
Standard & Poor’s Equity Research as well as the author of The Seven Rules of Wall Street and the column Stovall's
Sector Watch, a page on Spoutlook.com.
Harlan
Levy: How do you rate the jobs
situation, and what are the implications for this year?
Sam Stovall: I was disappointed from a payroll perspective but
was encouraged from an unemployment rate standpoint. What’s more I was
encouraged to see a decline in the number of the underemployed, because it
implies that the drop in the unemployment rate was not due to job seekers
giving up in frustration.
However, the jobs
situation is still the biggest impediment to the stock market’s performance in
2011. S&P Chief Econoist David Wyss continues to believe that unemployment
will likely remain above 9 percent for all of 2011 and that this will remain a
jobless economic and stock market recovery.
If, however, we
find that the payroll picture improves more rapidly than anticipated, we
believe the upward trajectory in economic and market performance will
accelerate.
H.L.: The level of investor optimism about the stock
market seems extreme these days. How bullish are you on stocks?
S.S.: I do think that the extreme level of investor
optimism is something to be concerned about in the near term, but it does not
stop me from being optimistic for the longer term. The recent spate of
better-than-expected economic reports combined with the still strong forecasted
increase in earnings supports the seasonal tendency for the S&P 500 to be
strong in both the January and the first-quarter of a president’s third year in
office.
That said, the
stock market usually gives investors a second opportunity to get back in at
lower prices. By that I mean since World War II 89 percent of the time the
S&P 500 has been lower at some point in the new year as compared with the
closing level of the prior year. Of course, past performance is no guarantee of
future results, and this year’s market action might fail to take a breather,
but I doubt it. So I don’t think it’s wise to be chasing returns right now,
because nearly nine times out of every 10 the market in the new year trades
about 9 percent below the closing level of the prior year.
H.L.: Has the stock market priced in the massive debts of
the states and cities and towns?
S.S.: That’s a very good question. I’m not really sure.
The market seems to go back and forth between fear and complacency as it
relates to debt on a variety of levels, be it sovereign, state, local, or
personal. When it comes to the states’ debts, they’re facing monumental
obligations that they may have a very hard time fulfilling. California is
certainly substantially larger than the economies of Greece and Ireland, and if
you add Illinois to the equation, there would be substantial reason to be
worried should these states default on their obligations.
Based on the
absence of meaningful discussion of a potential default, that leads me to
believe that the market does not expect default to be a likely outcome. I’m
worried that we’re putting it on the back burner, but it’s obviously not
affecting the market. It’s the outlook of the bears versus the outlook of the
bulls. Bears focus on structural problems , things that take years to
materialize, whereas bulls tend to look at nearer term events and basically say
the trend is my friend until it ends. Chances are the bears will eventually be
proved correct, but people ignore the bears because it takes so long. By then a
lot of people have just stopped listening. I don’t know that they should not be
ignoring it. The market tends to evaluate everything and attempts to put it in
perspective. Sometimes they’re wrong -- like when it came to housing and the
financial crisis -- and they might be ignoring it currently at their own peril
later on.
That’s why I
always think it’s wise to use both fundamental and technical analysis, since
fundamentals tell you what and technicals tell you when. Right
now the fundamentals are positive from a mainstream Gross Domestic Product
perspective as well as a corporate earnings standpoint, but there are a lot of
potential pitfalls from housing, unemployment, and debt that may yet
materialize. Technically speaking, however, the trend is still our friend and
implies further upside. Should these worries be moved from the back burner to
the front burner once again, the charts will likely give us advanced warning.
H.L.: What sectors of the economy look healthy and which
don’t?
S.S.: All sectors of the S&P 500 are expected to post
positive year-over year results in the fourth quarter of 2010 as well as the
full year of 2010 and in 2011. The strongest earnings increases in 2011 are
likely to be seen in the cyclical areas of the economy, such as industrials,
technology, energy, and materials.
The defensive
areas, which are also typically slow-growth areas, are likely to be just that,
the laggards in corporate profit growth this year.
H.L.: Will the dollar stay strong, and if so is that bad
for stocks, the way it recently has been?
S.S.: The dollar may decline from a technical perspective
in the near term as it undulates between support and resistance, yet should the
U.S. economy continue to improve and interest rates gradually work their way
higher, that would likely cause the dollar to remain firm rather than force it
into a renewed downward direction. It’s neither good nor bad, because investors
will look at the firmer dollar as a confirmation that our economy is improving.
H.L.: Now that the Republicans are in control of the House
of Representatives, will their promises of massive spending cuts and
elimination of business regulations end up killing the recovery?
S.S.: We believe that because the Democrats still control the Senate that we probably won’t see the steamrolling effect of the Republican-controlled House and its impact on spending cuts that people worry about materializing in 2011. They will still have to get a buy-in from the Democrats. So it may curtail increased spending, but it probably won’t lead to draconian spending cuts.’
The Three Biggest Risks in Today's Market Leeb ‘Last week I sat down with some fellow
market players for an extended conversation about the opportunities and risks
investors face today. The most productive questions we asked ourselves were
“What could go wrong in 2011 and beyond?” and “What can we do about it?” Of the
many possible disasters that emerged, here are my top three candidates.
This is more than just a case of “the bigger they are, the
harder they fall.” We’ve said before that Germany's greatest advantage today is
its participation in the euro. Having its currency tied to many smaller and
weaker European nations effectively gives Germany the most undervalued currency
among developed nations. In terms of the German economy, the euro is more
undervalued than even the Chinese yuan. Such a cheap currency gives Germany an
edge in selling exports to other nations.
Of course, whenever you take advantage of a situation, you
become vulnerable to any change in it. Germany has certainly taken advantage of
the weak euro: Exports now make up 40% of the German economy and virtually all
of its growth is export-driven.
If the euro were to break up, Germany would be forced to adopt a
new currency that would be valued fairly on the world stage. Its exports would
plunge, sending its economy into a deep recession. Such an event could provoke
disharmony if not separatist movements among the 16 states that make up the
German republic. (Let's recall that economic illness in Germany once led to the
rise of Hitler and World War II.) The risk is that a serious German recession
could cause a return of the pre-Bismarck era when competition among states made
war commonplace within Europe.
Equally worrying is Germany's trade balance with China. Before
2009, China was the only significant country with which Germany ran a deficit.
Now that deficit has become a surplus, but the change is not a positive, since
it is the result of Germany's decision to sell high-tech goods to China.
As has happened before, China will likely seize upon the
opportunity to re-engineer Germany's technology, create its own high-tech
product lines, and export them at cheaper prices. Germany could then lose
another big advantage.
Of course, neither of these potential events would be worse for
Germany than the break-up of the EU itself. We doubt this will happen, at least
not for some time, because it would take a policy mistake of gigantic
proportions. The member states have a strong motivation to keep the EU together
and avoid the depression that would surely follow. Nonetheless, mistakes have
been made before.
For instance, today we have a short-term interruption of the
Trans-Alaskan oil pipeline which affects less than 1% of the world's oil
supply. Yet it has resulted in a 1.5% jump in oil prices.
Any unexpected increase in oil demand from China or the other
developing nations, or another unexpected drop in production, could send oil
prices to the moon. It would be a replay of 2008, with an equally disastrous
deflationary end.
We assume you are well enough off to withstand a jump in
gasoline prices without a serious decline in your lifestyle. However, there are
millions of Americans with incomes under $60,000 a year who could not tolerate
$5 a gallon gasoline without cutting back spending in other areas. Falling
consumer spending could spell curtains for the recovery.
The first article discussed how much easier it is for a young
person to get into a top U.S. college if one of their parents went there. In
fact, the legacy advantage gives people a 7X greater likelihood of admission.
We need not remind you that the American Dream was that anyone,
regardless of their background, could achieve success through hard work and/or
natural talent. It was the dream of creating a meritocracy, where the
biggest rewards go to the individuals who most deserve them. By contrast, the
legacy advantage rewards people for simply having the right parents. It is a
step towards creating a hereditary upper class, or a plutocracy –
exactly the opposite of what America is all about.
China, on the other hand, doles out opportunities to young
people according to how well they score on tests. The second NYT
article, written by Nicholas Kristof, discussed Hou Yifan, a 16-year-old
Chinese girl from a poor background who is now the top female chess player in
the world. Hou's talent was supported by training and financing from the
Chinese government. Kristof's point, which we agree with, is that China invests
in talent, regardless of its origins.
China's government may not be democratic, but it is built upon
the principles of a meritocracy. It recruits and nurtures the brightest and the
best. Consequently, Xi Jinping, China's heir apparent to current leader Hu
Jintao, started his career as a farm laborer. His father was a poor tea trader
who spent 16 years in prison for his politics. (Offhand, we don't recall the
last U.S. President who came from such humble beginnings. Certainly, there have
been very few since Andrew Jackson.) Suffice it to say that fewer U.S. leaders
today have come from poor backgrounds than ever before - which suggests that
many highly talented young people are finding the doorway to the American Dream
barred against them.
If the U.S. is to retain its standing in the world, we need to
get our act together. We need to make sure the best talent is nurtured and
rewarded, not wasted. We need to maintain leadership in vital technologies. We
need to rethink political correctness (that is, we need to embrace ideas that
are true regardless whether they serve vested interests).
As Defense Secretary Gates learned on his recent visit to China,
the country has the flexibility to expand its military while the U.S. is now
looking at cutbacks. China is also planning to spend $1.5 trillion on new
high-tech industries that will increase its energy supplies and efficiency. The
only solution the U.S. seems willing to consider is more offshore drilling. We
must stop being so complacent.
Meanwhile, so long as we are looking at convex curves in not
only oil prices but also copper and other commodities, we will continue to
invest for the next exponential advance. Gold remains the safest long-term investment
you can make today as a hedge against deflation and inflation. Buy either gold
stocks or bullion ETFs.’
Drudgereport:
SILENCE:
RI Gov. bans state employees from speaking on talkradio...
Dem
Congressman: If Violent Rhetoric Didn't Cause This Shooting -- It Will Cause
Next One!
BILL
CLINTON: 'WE NEED TO BE CAREFUL ABOUT THINGS WE SAY' … [ How about, OR DO! ]
...
OBAMA
FLASHBACK: 'If They Bring a Knife to the Fight, We Bring a Gun'...
Dem
rep urging 'civility' had called for FL guv candidate to be shot...
NEW
PUSH FOR 'FAIRNESS DOCTRINE'...
MSNBC
Matthews Cites Radio Stars Mark Levin, Michael Savage As Reason For AZ
Shooting...
Dem
Senator Fundraises Off Murders...
PISTOL
SALES SURGE AFTER AZ SHOOTING
Snow
in 49 states including Hawaii…[Sounds like that ‘Global Warming
Thing’…Riiiiight!] ...
Bank
of China Brings Yuan Trading to USA...
China
Stealth Test Upstages Gates, Hu...
France
our biggest ally, declares Obama: President's blow to Special Relationship with
Britain...
Sarkozy
to be subject of 'hugely embarrassing' film...
Watchdog
over Afghan reconstruction resigns (Washington Post) [ Wow! Sounds like he
really meant business … which also meant, congress ‘hearing footsteps’ so to
speak, that he had to go. After all, applying a stringent standard that
promises to do something about fraud and corruption is a standard that would
threaten the entire u.s. government … all three branches. ] Arnold Fields, the head of the office
charged with investigating corruption in the multibillion-dollar effort to
rebuild Afghanistan has resigned, the White House said, following congressional
demands that he be replaced.
China
as Europe's white knight? (Washington Post) [ White
knight? I don’t think so. Yellow night and day, I think yes. Not to impugn
their motives, but the Book of Ecclesiastes said it well: "What
has been is what will be, and what has been done is what will be done; and there
is nothing new under the sun"
Jun 18, 2007 ... John
Perkins' career as an economic hit man (EHM) has taken him all over
the globe. He details his activities as an EHM in his best-seller ...
heartlanddiaryofbettyb.blogspot.com/.../confessions-of-economic-hit-man.html - Cached - Similar
Mar 23, 2007 ...
Confessions of an Economic Hitman by John Perkins is an exclamation
point riddled history of a few financial manipulations of the Cold War ...
cobb.typepad.com/cobb/2007/03/confessions_of_.html -
Cached - Similar
Aug 9, 2006 ...
rustydude's diary :: :: The reason I bring it up within the ..... I am
thrilled to hear all this support for the Economic Hit Man book since
...
www.dailykos.com/story/2006/8/10/04532/7753 - Cached - Similar
Jul 13, 2010 ... In 2008,
Greek writer/director Stelios Koul made a documentary about Perkins entitled “Diary
of an Economic Hit Man.” ...
www.thewrap.com/.../cinema-libre-acquires-economic-hit-man-19179 - Cached
14 Eye Opening Statistics Which Reveal Just How
Dramatically The U.S. Economy Has Collapsed Since 2007 Most
Americans have become so accustomed to the “new normal” of continual economic
decline that they don’t even remember how good things were just a few short
years ago. ‘The Economic Collapse Jan 10, 2011
’Most Americans have become so accustomed to the “new normal” of continual
economic decline that they don’t even remember how good things were just a few
short years ago. Back in 2007, unemployment was very low, good jobs were
much easier to get, far fewer Americans were living in poverty or enrolled in
welfare programs and government finances were in much better shape. Of
course most of this prosperity was fueled by massive amounts of debt, but at
least times were better. Unfortunately, things have really deteriorated
over the last several years. Since 2007, unemployment has skyrocketed,
foreclosures have set new all-time records, personal bankruptcies have soared
and U.S. government debt has gotten completely and totally out of
control. Poll after poll has shown that Americans are now far less optimistic
about the future than they were in 2007. It is almost as if the past few
years have literally sucked the hope out of millions upon millions of
Americans.
Sadly,
our economic situation is continually getting worse. Every month the
United States loses more factories. Every month the United States loses
more jobs. Every month the collective wealth of U.S. citizens continues
to decline. Every month the federal government goes into even more
debt. Every month state and local governments go into even more debt.
Unfortunately,
things are going to get even worse in the years ahead. Right now we look
back on 2005, 2006 and 2007 as “good times”, but in a few years we will look
back on 2010 and 2011 as “good times”.
We
are in the midst of a long-term economic decline, and the very bad economic
choices that we have been making as a nation for decades are now starting to
really catch up with us.
So
as horrible as you may think that things are now, just keep in mind that things
are going to continue to deteriorate in the years ahead.
But
for the moment, let us remember how far we have fallen over the past few
years. The following are 14 eye opening statistics which reveal just how
dramatically the U.S. economy has collapsed since 2007….
#1
In November 2007, the official U.S. unemployment rate was just 4.7
percent. Today, the official U.S. unemployment rate is 9.4 percent.
#2
In November 2007, 18.8% of unemployed Americans had been out of work for 27
weeks or longer. Today that percentage is up to 41.9%.
#3
As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had been
unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over
6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or
longer.
#4
Nearly 10 million Americans now receive unemployment insurance, whichis
almost four times as many as were receiving it back
in 2007.
#5
More than half of the U.S. labor force (55 percent) has “suffered a spell of unemployment,
a cut in pay, a reduction in hours or have become involuntary part-time
workers” since the “recession” began in December 2007.
#6
According to one analysis, the United States has lost a total of approximately
10.5 million jobs since 2007.
#7
As 2007 began, only 26 million Americans were on food stamps. Today, an
all-time record of 43.2 million Americans are enrolled in the
food stamp program.
#8
In 2007, the U.S. government held a total of $725 billion in mortgage
debt. As of the middle of 2010, the U.S. government held a total of $5.148 trillion in mortgage debt.
#9
In the year prior to the “official” beginning of the most recent recession in
2007, the IRS filed just 684,000 tax liens against U.S. taxpayers. During
2010, the IRS filed over a million tax liens against U.S.
taxpayers.
#10
From the year 2000 through the year 2007, there were 27 bank failures in the
United States. From 2008 through 2010, there were 314 bank failures in the United States.
#11
According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the number
of U.S. families with children living in homeless sheltersincreased from 131,000 to 170,000 between 2007
and 2009.
#12
In 2007, one poll found that 43 percent of Americans were living “paycheck to
paycheck”. Sadly, according to a survey released very close to the end of
2010, approximately 55 percent
of all Americans are now living paycheck to paycheck.
#13
In 2007, the “official” federal budget deficit was just 161 billion
dollars. In 2010, the “official” federal budget deficit was approximately 1.3 trillion dollars.
#14
As 2007 began, the U.S. national debt was just under 8.7 trillion
dollars. Today, the U.S. national debt has just surpassed 14 trillion dollars and it
continues to soar into the stratosphere.
So
is there any hope that we can turn all of this around?
Unfortunately,
the massive amount of debt that we have piled up as a society over the last
several decades has made that impossible.
If
you add up all forms of debt (government debt, business debt, individual debt),
it comes to approximately 360 percent of GDP. It is the biggest debt
bubble in the history of the world.
If
the federal government and our state governments stop borrowing and spending so
much money, our economy would collapse. But if they keep borrowing and
spending so much money they will continually make the eventual economic
collapse even worse.
We
are in the terminal stages of the most horrific debt spiral the world has ever
seen, and when the debt spiral gets stopped the house of cards is going to
finally come down for good.
So
enjoy these times while you still have them. Yes, today is not nearly as
prosperous as 2007 was, but today is most definitely a whole lot better than
2015 or 2020 is going to be.
Sadly,
we could have avoided this financial disaster completely if only we had
listened more carefully to those that founded this nation. Once upon a
time, Thomas Jefferson said
the following….
I wish it were possible to obtain a single amendment to our Constitution. I would be willing to depend on that alone for the reduction of the administration of our government to the genuine principles of its Constitution; I mean an additional article, taking from the federal government the power of borrowing.’
Options Data Suggests Topping Action -VXX
- News)
has lulled investors into a state of complacency. If you had to describe
investor's alertness in sleep lingo, a state of REM sleep would probably be the
closest comparison.History tells us that the (bear) market only strikes when
least expected.Based on analyst polls by Bloomberg, Barron's, USA Today and a
variety of sentiment measures, a stock market (NYSEArca: VTI
- News)
decline is as remote today as it was in 2000 or 2007.
Hedging Activity Drops
Investors
and traders are content to hold on to massive long positions without hedge. One
of the easiest ways to hedge your stock portfolio is via put options. Last week
the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio dropped to 0.4, the lowest reading since April
15, 2010.The lack of hedging is dangerous for prices because the market is
without a safety net. The only option for spooked investors without hedge is to
sell. Selling causes prices to drop.On April 16, 2010, the ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter warned of the consequences of a low put/call ratio: 'Selling results
in more selling. This negative feedback loop usually results in rapidly falling
prices. The pieces are in place for a major decline. We are simply waiting for
the proverbial first domino to fall over and set off a chain reaction.'The
first domino dropped just a few days later, setting off the May 6 'Flash Crash'
and ultimately resulted in a swift 15% correction for the Dow (DJI: ^DJI), 17%
correction for the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), 19% for the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC),
and 21% for the Russell 2000 (NYSEArca: IWM
- News).A
different measure of complacency is the premium traders willingness to pay
for call options (bullish bets). Based on a three-month average, the price for
put options (bearish bets) is near a 10-year low. The only other time that
rivals current readings was in 2007.
This Time is Different
The
spirit of 'this time is different' is one of the most fascinating phenomenons
known to Wall Street. Investors' sentiment follows the ebb and flow of stock
prices. When prices are up, the future is expected to be bright. When prices
are down, the future is supposedly bleak (just think of the 2007 peak and 2009
bottom).This approach of linear extrapolations feeds the herding mentality,
which contrarians use as effective indicators. This approach is not foolproof
but, nevertheless, is one of the most accurate, if not the most accurate timing
tool known to underground Wall Street aficionadosThe chart below (taken from
the January 2011 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter) illustrates the four most
prominent occurrences of extreme optimism, or the 'this time is different'
effect. The green line connects the price of the S&P with the timeline and
various sentiment gauges. [chart] Investors thought 'this time is different' at
the 2007 peak, in May 2008, in January 2010, and again in April 2010. The only
thing different at all four times was the velocity of the descent, but each
period of euphoria was greeted by despair.
Optimism and Bad News
If
you had a chance to watch CNBC's 60 Minutes over the past two weeks, you are
aware of some possible 'Black Swan' events.Scott Pelley's introduction to Ben
Bernanke's interview couldn't have been more sobering: 'That is the worst
recovery we've ever seen. Ben Bernanke is concerned. Chairmen of the Fed rarely
do interviews, but this week Bernanke feels he has to speak out because he
believes his critics may not understand how much trouble the economy is in.'The
financial media, however, ignored Ben Bernanke's sobering assessment of the
economy and focused on the silver lining: A bad economy may lead to QE3 and its
cousins QE4 and QE5. What's better, an improving economy or more QE? Apparently
QE is just as good as more jobs.Another 60 Minutes focused on the next big thing;
Municipal and state defaults. In the two years since the 'Great Recession,'
states have collectively spent nearly half a trillion dollars more than they
collected. There's a trillion dollar hole in their public pension fund and
according to New Jersey's Governor, the day of reckoning is near.Meredith
Whitney, one of the few analysts who foresaw the bubble building in banks
(NYSEArca: KBE - News)
and financials (NYSEArca: XLF - News)
believes at least part of the three trillion municipal bond market will unravel
within the next year.For much of 2010 municipal bonds were brewing their own
little bubble. As it is common with bubbles, they are rarely foreseen by the
public eye. In the case of muni bonds, yield hungry investors ignored the red
flags.On August 26, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned that it is time
to get out of muni bonds, corporate bonds and Treasuries. Muni-bonds topped on
August 26 and have since given up more than two years worth of gains.
History Rhymes
Yes,
history doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes. In 2007, Merrill Lynch's
Global Economics Report foresaw a bright future: 'The Merrill Lynch global
economics team believes that the economy will continue to grow in 2007 - with
no sign of a significant cyclical slowdown.'According to J.P. Morgan, Barclays
Capital and Goldman Sachs (Merrill Lynch failed to foresee its own demise in
2007 and is no more), the S&P will gain between 15 - 20% in 2011 and the
'economy will continue to grow in 2011.'Perhaps this time will be different,
but based on history, now is the time to at least be cautious and protect your
investments. An ounce of protection is worth more than a pound of cure. Based
on long-term valuation metrics the stock market is priced to deliver pain, not
gain (see November 2011 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter for a detailed analysis).Based
on sentiment, the market is overheated and due for a correction at the very
least, and how often have we seen a correction turn into something more? Timing
a top is tricky, but based on support and resistance levels and seasonal
patterns it is possible to narrow down when the market is ready to roll
over.The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
includes the next resistance likely to mark the end of this rally and important
structural support. A close below this important support level will probably
break the bulls' spirit and the market's streak.’
New
Ponzi Scheme: Blame Bernie [ Which one? Which ‘weak end at bernie’s’?
Bernie bernanke or madoff? As usual, where’s the DOJ? ‘The SEC seeks an
injunction, DISGORGEMENT and civil penalties’. Now note that that disgorgement
thing has yet to be applied to the gargantuan frauds on wall street. Indeed,
now flush with cash from legislative (mark to anything change in FASB rules)
and fed (new bubble) help, the frauds on wall street are cashing out bonuses
exceeding $144 billion. For those who think there’s no economic damage attendant
to such frauds as those perpetrated by the frauds on wall street which the
computer-programmed high-frequencey churn-and-earn continuing as we speak, take
further note of this disaster called the defacto bankrupt u.s. economy that the
slicker, though less blatant than the fraud that follows which pales in
comparison to that bailed out by the u.s. taxpayers at great long-term cost to
the nation. ] Singer ‘Frankly, it’s
becoming a bit of a broken record. According to a Securities and Exchange
Commission (SEC) Complaint filed on January 6, 2010, a number of
Defendants perpetrated a Ponzi scheme – yet another such allegation against
another group of alleged fraudsters. Securities and
Exchange Commission, Plaintiff, vs. Raymond P. Morris, E & R Holdings, LLC,
Wise Financial Holdings, LLC, Momentum Leasing, LLC, James L. Haley,
Cornerstone Capital Fund, LLC, Vantage Point Capital, LLC, Jay J. Linford
Freedom Group, LLC, and Luc D. Nguyen, Defendants (11CV00021, Utah
District Court, January 6, 20100) NOTE: The SEC Complaint contains only
allegations. The Defendants are presumed innocent of the charges and it will be
the government’s burden to prove the Defendants’ guilt at trial.
The Complaint alleges that Morris first approached
Haley (who was in a real estate investment group with Morris), about an
exclusive investment that was allegdly started by the owner of the Houston
Astros and had generated 20% returns per month for nearly eight years.
Wow, that’s too good to pass up, if you ask me – I
mean, geez, the Houston Astros owner started it. And, even more compelling, 20%
returns for eight years. Hey, no reason to really check any of that out,
right? I mean the Houston Astros are in baseball, and baseball is as
American as apple pie, and any deal offering 20% returns that’s so all-American
has to be the real thing. Batter up!Morris allegedly told Haley that this hot investment opportunity is
based on a capital leasing concept (the “Fund”). Once money is invested
in the Fund, Morris purportedly represented that the money would be
deposited into an account under Morris’s sole control and would never leave the
account.Odd how the investors’ cash never quite seems to get directly
deposited into these troubled investments but always seems to wind up
offshore, in a conduit, or in some account under someone else’s
control. Sort of like when you open a brokerage account and decide to buy
1,000 shares of stock and your stockbroker insists that you write the check for
the purchase price made payable to him — why? Oh, well, if you really
have to ask, it’s not for you, he says. If you must know, he reluctantly
confides in you, it’s so that the brokerage firm can first verify that you have
the dollars to buy the stock. I’m doing you a favor, he says, by allowing you
to first give me the money. That way you don’t have to worry about
getting cleared to buy the stock. You can trust me, I’m your stockbroker.
It all sounds a bit more fishy when I put it like
that, doesn’t it?
And what supposedly was the point of depositing the
investors’ funds into the Morris-controlled account?
The Complaint alleges that Morris explained to Haley
that once investor capital was verified, private traders would obtain large
lines of credit and then would invest the proceeds in bonds, hard money lending
and small businesses. Morris advised Haley that the return from these
investments would be sufficient to guarantee investors a return of 20% per
month or more.
Did you get that?
Private traders are out there waiting for those
ever-so-urgent phone calls that assure them that cash has been legitimately
invested in some account, and once that assurance is given to the private
traders, well, you know, they obtain humongous lines of credit. What do the
traders do with all that credit? Well, they invest in “bonds, hard money
lending and small businesses.” Again,
you’d think that investors would do some hardcore homework and confirm all of
those representations. However, we would not have these stories and
lawsuits if folks went through the trouble of keeping other folks honest –
would we?Still – for some reason there are a lot of folks out there – I’ll call
them pigeons, if you don’t mind – who seem to have a fire in their wallets and
can’t wait to send dollars into yet another Fund that guarantees 20% once some
supposed group of private traders obtains verification of deposit and then goes
out and leverages the sums on deposit into impressive sounding
investments. Apparently, Haley was hot to trot. You understand why,
don’t you? The Houston Astros connection. The 20%. The verified funds in
someone else’s account. Tough to ask questions or demand proof about something
so enticing. (Yes, that’s sarcasm — dripping and heavy).
Only one problem.Morris told Haley they could
not join the Fund unless an existing investor died.My, isn’t that too
bad? Clearly this deal is for real because folks are literally dying for
other investors to get in. I mean, you know, seriously, no one would possibly
make up such a precondition. Course not. You’d have to kill some investor off
just to make way for another investor. That’s just nuts.
Eureka!Haley was really, really, really lucky
because Morris called Haley with the wonderful news (albeit, quite sad)
that one of the few investors in the Fund just dropped dead less than a week
after Morris told Haley about this amazing investment
opportunity. The Complaint asserts that Morris indicated that if
Haley could raise $500,000 in three to five days, they could invest in the
Fund.
Happy days!
The Complaint alleges that without conducting any due
diligence into Morris or the Fund, Haley began soliciting investments from
friends and neighbors and raised $500,000, which he gave to Morris.What did
Haley tell his acquaintances? Oh, the Complaint says that he simply repeated
Morris’s representations about the whole set-up and further assured the
investors that their funds would only be used for “verification of deposit” purposes. I
like the sound of that, don’t you? Verifcation of deposit purposes.
Me? I’ve only been on Wall Street for about thirty years and although I’m
not sure what the hell “verification of deposit purposes” means, I must admit
that it sounds pretty impressive. Of course, silly me, I would never write out
a check to anyone for something like “verification of deposit purposes” without
reviewing all the source documents and confirming the bona fides of the
supposed traders and the trades but, then again, I’m just another stupid
lawyer.The Complaint alleges that from about August 2007 through June
2008, Haley, through his entities Cornerstone Capital andVantage Point, raised
at least $20 million for Morris’s Fund.Oh, and there’s this tidbit:
Morris and Haley had entered into an oral agreement that provided a payment
of 20% per month on funds Haley raised. Another thing, Haley could
determine what portion of his fee he gave back to his investors. Lemme see, 20%
of $20 million is like, what?, about $4 million? Not bad for simply
getting friends and acquaintances into some verification of deposit purposes
thingamajig. I wonder how much of that Haley gave back to the investors?
Sometime prior to June 2007, Morris and Haley hired
Nguyen, a Utah attorney, to assist them with legal matters relating to
soliciting investments. Nguyen set up Morris’s and Haley’s investment entities,
drafted offering documents, and filed Forms D with the Commission for Morris
controlled entities, E & R Holdings, Wise Financial and Momentum, and for
Haley controlled entities, Cornerstone Capital and Vantage Point. After
setting up the investment entities, the Complaint alleges that Nguyen stepped
outside his role as counsel and began soliciting investments. Despite having
conducted no due diligence on Morris or the Fund, Nguyen allegedly repeated
Morris’s misrepresentations about the Fund to investors.Nguyen is also charged
with knowingly making additional false representations to investors, including
that he had reviewed the Fund’s documents and had personally spoken with the
banks and private traders involved. Nguyen touted the Fund as “one of the best
he had ever seen” and told investors he “understood the Fund better than Morris
or Haley.” Allegedly, Nguyen told investors that he was an
“SEC attorney,” and that the Fund was “one of the best he had ever seen,” and
that he had done extensive due diligence into Morris’s Fund and knew the
program better than Morris or Haley. Nguyen purportedly told investors he
had personally met with the attorneys representing the supposed trading
companies involved in the Fund and that he had received copies of all operating
agreements between the leasing companies and the trading companies. In fact,
Nguyen performed no due diligence on Morris or the Fund, never met with anyone
affiliatedNguyen also falsely told investors that he personally had significant
assets invested in the Fund. In fact, Nguyen made no capital contributions to
the Fund. Oh, and let’s not forget that Nguyen was allegedly paid at least
$330,000 from Morris for raising investment funds and was paid at least an
additional $58,000 in legal fees.
Sometime during the Spring of 2007, Morris met
Linford at an investment seminar , and thereafter, Linford is charged with
raising about $1 million for the Fund by misrepresenting that the Fund paid
returns as high as 100% in seven days with no risk to investor principal.
In April 2008, Morris stopped making regular interest
payments to investors. Morris gave many explanations to investors,
including that Homeland Security had frozen the accounts, that the Madoff case
had caused banks to hold funds and that typographical errors in wire request
forms had caused delays.Oh, I see, it’s the old Homeland
Security-Madoff-Typo-Dog-Ate-My-Homework explanation. Don’t they have a form
for that?As investors complained and threatened to go to the SEC and other
government agencies, Morris began disseminating phony bank statements falsely
showing that he had over $200 million deposited with Wachovia Bank. In late
October 2008, Morris gave Nguyen a purported “Bank Confirmation Letter” from
Wachovia. This fraudulent letter states that Wachovia “currently holds funds in
the amount of…$201,782,567.89…[and] Mr. Raymond Paul Morris is the signatory on
this account.” The letter also says “the funds are good, clean and of
non-criminal origin, are unencumbered and freely disposable.”In addition to the
letter, Morris gave Nguyen a phony “Verification of Depository,” also
purporting to be from Wachovia Bank, showing that $201,827,067.89 was in
Morris’s account.
Okay, so, let’s at least give these guys credit. It’s
not like they came up with a simple round number, such as
$201,000,000.00. No, this is more convincing with every place filled with
a seemingly plausible number. Can you find the whole numbers from 0 to 9
that are missing? Can you find Waldo?After
Nguyen received the bogus “Bank Confirmation Letter” and “Verification of
Depository,” the Complaint alleges that he agreed to draft a letter to Morris’s
investors, assuring them their funds were safe. Unfortunately, Nguyen allegedly
did not conduct reasonable due diligence prior to sending this October 30,2008
letter. The letter caused investors to delay their attempts to contact
government authorities regarding Morris, Haley, Linford and Nguyen and their
investment activities.
By the time the Ponzi scheme unraveled, Morris, Haley, Linford and Nguyen, and their respective entities, had allegedly defrauded at least 90 investors out of at least $60 million by offering and selling unregistered and non-exempt promissory notes based on material misrepresentations and omissions.Many of the investors who lost money in the Fund were inexperienced, unsophisticated and had minimal net worth and annual income. Many investors lost their entire savings. Some investors went so far as to borrow the money they invested and are now indebted beyond their ability to repay their lenders.In truth, the Complaint alleges that Morris did not work with private traders to obtain lines of credit that were invested. As has become the norm with these Ponzi schemes, Morris is accused of using investor funds to make bogus interest payments to earlier investors from capital raised from later investors. Moreover, rather than investing the funds in debt and equity vehicles, real estate, commodities and leasing it to private traders, Morris used investor money to support a lavish lifestyle, including a luxurious home and several sports cars, and to make illusory interest payments to early investors in his scheme.Out of the approximate $20 million Haley raised, the Complaint alleges that he used at least $700,000 for personal expenses, including payments on a new home and $25,000 per month rental payments while building this new home.The Complaint charges Morris, Haley, Lindford, Nguyen, E&R Holdings, Wise Financial, Momentum, Cornerstone, Vantage Point and Freedom Group with violations of Sections 5(a), 5(c) and 17(a) of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 10(b) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (Exchange Act) and Rule 10b-5 thereunder. The complaint also charges Morris, Haley and Nguyen with violates of Section 15(a) of the Exchange Act. The SEC seeks an injunction, disgorgement and civil penalties.’
Sentiment Signaling a Call for Caution - Prieur du Plessis ‘The results of the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey
are shown in the graphs below. The Survey measures the percentage of individual
investors who are bullish, bearish or neutral on stock market for the next six
months. As the masses are usually on the wrong side of market movements,
particularly at tops and bottoms, sentiment indicators fulfil a useful function
as contrarian indicators. The bullish sentiment (55.9%) and bearish sentiment
(18.3%) readings are at fairly extreme levels, as also seen from the bull-bear
spread being quite a bit higher than the market peak of October 2007. Sentiment
indicators are fairly blunt instruments from a timing point of view and can
stay at high / low levels for extended periods. However, when companies are
overvalued and technical indicators overbought, overbullish sentiment
indicators complete a threesome of tools arguing quite strongly for a cautious
approach to stock market investment.
Click to
enlarge:
Source: AAII Investor Sentiment Survey;
Plexus Asset Management.’
Why your local Hospital could soon shut down
Illinois
faces steep tax increases to meet fiscal crisis (Washington Post) [ This is
only the beginning of this continued ultimately hyperinflationary depression
with much worse to come. How
the recession imploded states' finances (Washington Post) [ This is truly no joke! Municipal
Debt Threatens U.S. Economy Lim ‘The debt crisis that has taken down banks,
and even countries, threatens more than 100 American municipalities this year.
According to Meredith Whitney, who works as a US research analyst, local and
state debts are the biggest concerns to the US economy today. It is large
enough to derail economic recovery.
She said that,
There’s not a doubt on my mind that you will see a
spate of municipal bond defaults. You can see fifty to a hundred sizable
defaults – more. This will amount to hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of
defaults.
American states and cities have a total debt load of
around $2 trillion.
New Jersey government Chris Christie summarized it
clearly,
White
House to extend more support (to overcome widespread suspicion and
anti-americanism) to Pakistan (Washington Post) [ Well, there you have it. Another
victory notched up for defacto bankrupt, war criminal nation america. Sounds
like a plan … you know, that winning hearts and minds thing … destroy the
country, kill their people, have contractors siphon off the cash (with
kickbacks of course). Victory americana … Riiiiight! ] Offer aimed at overcoming widespread
suspicion and anti-Americanism in nation, which is seen as a vexing but crucial
partner in anti-terror efforts
Data
point to economy crawling out of downturn (Washington Post) [ I don’t
believe anything the u.s. government et als says or reports. What Today's Job Numbers Aren't Telling You , On Friday January 7, 2011, 6:10 pm EST
‘Another
month goes by and another unemployment report deciphered. Is there more to this
month's report than the 9.4% headline number? Unless you are content with the
information spoon fed by the financial media, you'll find the data points
revealed in this article rather interesting.The only other Wall Street ritual
that tops monthly unemployment reports is earnings season. Like any other
ritual, it comes with many myths and fables attached. The most common one is
that unemployment directly affects stock prices.
Myth Busted
If
you base your investment decisions on today's release, you may want to revisit
the market's performance following last month's release (published on December
3, 2010).The U-3 unemployment rate spiked from 9.6% to 9.8%. This was a huge
disappointment, yet major stock indexes a la S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), Dow (DJI:
^DJI) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) rallied. What caused this unexpected reaction?
The answer can be found in technical analysis.The technical setup going into
last month's unemployment release (published on December 3) was predominantly
bullish. With the S&P (NYSEArca: IVV
- News)
at 1,225 in early November, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter highlighted important
support at 1,165 - 1,170 and on November 7 stated: 'Any correction that doesn't
drop below 1,165 will likely result in new highs' with resistance at 1,267
(revised to 1,281 on December 12).As the chart below illustrates, the S&P
tested support on five occasions and set the stage for future gains. That's why
despite the dismal jobless numbers, stocks spiked on the day of the release and
continued higher. [chart] Before we talk about the technical set up going
into today's release, let's examine some unknown but important details about
today's unemployment report.
What the Headlines Won't Tell You
The
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS.org) publishes more data than just the heavily
quoted U-3 unemployment headline number (currently 9.4%).In fact, if you do
some surfing on BLS.org you will find that the headline number is deceptive at
best and inaccurate at least. Below are some statistics that put America's job
market in perspective.According to the BLS, the real unemployment rate (U-6),
which includes workers who stopped looking for jobs or had to settle for
part-time jobs - is at 16.7%.
One
of the most remarkable BLS data points on the BLS site is the average number of
weeks workers are now unemployed. The jobless are unemployed for an average of
34.2 weeks. As the chart below shows, this is the second highest reading
in the survey's 63-year history (all-time high was 34.8 in July
2010).
[chart]
Along
the same lines, the number of workers unemployed for more than 27 weeks (usually
unemployment benefits cease after 26 weeks) is near its May 2010 all-time
high.
[chart]
A Painful Misconception
The
Bush tax-cut extension led many to believe that unemployment benefits have been
extended beyond the 99 weeks (26 weeks state-funded plus 73 weeks federal
benefits) available to the 25 worst hit states. This is not correct.According
to CNBC, no benefits will be paid once the 99-week period is exhausted. As per
the extension, however, the jobless will continue to receive up to 99 weeks of
unemployment checks.Over the past three years, the unemployed have collected
about $320 billion in jobless benefits. About two million '99ers' received
their last benefit check around Christmas.
A Shrinking Workforce
It
is estimated that about 150,000 'youngsters' enter the work force every year.
That's why the work force has steadily increased since 1948. Courtesy of the
2008 bear market, the workforce has actually been shrinking as discouraged
workers drop out of the statistics .Discouraged workers are those who
stopped searching in the last four weeks. Excluding them from the
workforce and the unemployment equation artificially lowers the U-3
unemployment rate. Discouraged workers surged to a new record high of 1.32 million
which depressed the labor force participation rate to 64.3% (a 27-year low). If
the participation rate had stayed the same, the U-3 unemployment rate would be
9.7%.
Making Sense of What Doesn't Make Sense
Based
on U-6 numbers, since December 2006 as many 13 million Americans have
either lost their jobs, or have been downgraded. Meanwhile food stamp
recipients have mushroomed by ten 10 million.Nevertheless, stocks have shrugged
off an avalanche of bad news and continue plowing ahead towards new highs. Does
that make sense?It does when you include the Federal Reserve and it's
quantitative easing program in this lopsided equation. The Fed has a history of
creating and ignoring bubbles. The 2000 tech (NYSEArca: XLK
- News)
bubble came and went and was followed by the 2005 real estate (NYSEArca: IYR
- News)
bubble.The 2005 real estate bubble was somewhat cushioned by the 2007 financial
(NYSEArca: XLF - News)
bubble. The 2007 bubble bust expressed itself fully until the Fed started
inflating yet another bubble - the QE1 and QE2-based 'great' new bull market.
The Technical Set Up
Looking
at the long-term picture, there is reason to be skeptical about the growth
potential for U.S. stocks (NYSEArca: IWM
- News).
But if you want instant gratification - as most investors do - what's the
technical set up for the coming weeks?Looking at the market's internal indicators,
we note that momentum is strong but breadth is weakening. Sentiment - one of
the most reliable indicators in the investment universe - is extremely bullish,
which is bearish for stocks.Prior instances when the ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter noted overheated excitement for stocks was in January 2009, January
2010, and April 2010. Another bearish factor is the new January effect
that's seen stocks decline each January over the past three
years.Additionally, the S&P is about to reach the measured upside target of
a W pattern (December 12 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter) and a host of other
resistance levels.In summary, momentum and Fed induced liquidity point up, but
sentiment gauges and some technical indicators convey a deeply bearish
message.The best way to navigate such cross currents is to let the market speak
and carefully analyze its reaction to important support and resistance levels.
Failure to break resistance levels combined with an inability to remain above
support have been recipes for disaster in the past, especially with
bullish sentiment at extreme levels.A chain is only as strong as its weakest
link. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
monitors the market's internal strength to identify weak links before they
break.’
Twain
needs no fixin' (Washington Post) [ I quite agree with Ms. Parker,
particularly in this digital age which facilitates such censorship which can be
accomplished with such ease and an environment as in the self-created paranoid
u.s. replete with pervasive corruption, incompetence, and criminality where
perpetrators / criminals therein cry out for more cover-up / censorship all in
the self-destructive name of ‘war on terror’, jingoistic patriotism, etc.. I’m
against almost all censorship (subject
to very limited exceptions, ie., ‘yelling fire in a crowded theater, kiddy
porn, etc., except that the u.s. courts are so corrupt and venal that they can
no longer be trusted to responsibly apply those limited exceptions to narrowly
defined exceptional circumstances. See, for example, RICO case
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm )
. DRUDGEREPORT: NYT
SATURDAY: NUMBER OF COMBAT INJURIES IN AFGHANISTAN APPROACHES IRAQ-WAR
LEVELS... DEVELOPING...
'WE'RE
DIGGING OUT OF A HOLE' [ Example of sentiment: some comments - ‘…Barack Obama is a cooked goose. He is absolutely
the most incompetent president of the U.S. ever, so he continues to spin the
numbers in such a manner that might make him look good. News for him: NOTHING
will make you look good. Pretty is skin deep, incompetence goes clear to the
bone. "Let his days be few; and let another take his office." Psalms
109:8- RightStuff, Texas, USA, 7/1/2011 19:45
You know what happens when you keep digging a hole - you reach China and
that is what is going to finish the americans and Obamarama...- Olrik, Canada,
7/1/2011 19:41
'We're digging ourselves out of a hole' - Barack Hussein Obama To get
out of a hole you've dug so deep, is to STOP DIGGING, fill it up with soil so
you can climb OUT OF THE HOLE. STOP SPENDING OBAMA! STOP PRINTING MONEY! The US
dollar is weakening against YUAN of China. Republicans better start cutting all
spending, defund/repeal Obamacare, America is flat BROKE! If Republicans can't
rein all spending created by Pelosi and her peons, their DEBT would be BIGGER
than their economy.- Observer, over here, over there, 7/1/2011 19:33
Well the ammo index is still down, I guess having 3,000 rounds is
enough- NVBob, Richland WA USA, 7/1/2011 19:31
Fill in the hole, with Obama in it, at the bottom!- Stan, St Louis,
Missouri, USA, 7/1/2011 19:30
Is
a Correction Inevitable? [Short answer: YES! ] Vistesen ‘The signs are
clear: risk is overloved, overbought and overextended but does this necessarily
spell the inevitable correction? [Short answer: YES! ] (click for larger
image) [chart] Since
Augsut 2010 the SPY has barely touched its 50 day moving average. Indeed, it
has stayed well clear of it. Those, like yours truly, who entered 2011 fancying
some bloodletting have so far been disappointed. Plan
B Economics points to the obvious that oftentimes in the world of
investing, a choir chiming for an event to unfold is the best bet that it will not
occur.
I’ve had a pretty good sense in the past knowing when
the “correction” trade is overcrowded. I gotta say that I definitely sense that
now. Bulls are on guard for a correction and bears are calling for one too. In
fact, I’ve never seen such a unanimous call for a correction as I do now in a
long time. Near the low of the day I saw a headline from bigcharts.com that
said some portfolio manager claimed the January correction has started. The
market didn’t even go in the red for the year yet and this guy’s already saying
the correction has started? Talk about being over-eager. I believe this group
think call for a correction means that a correction either won’t happen or will
be quite shallow, well below expectations.
As a good friend of mine noted that this is like
second-guessing the second-guesser. Market timing is best performed when
frontrunning the crowd, not standing in the middle shouting like everyone else.
On the technical side, I would like to see two (or three) straight days of
declines in the SPY before calling it.The more interesting point is how deep
(or shallow) it will be. A move to the 50 day MA marker would be something like
4.15% and come at around 1221 at current levels. Sounds about right to me.’ [
Vistesen’s clearly an unbridled optimist! ]
Drowning
in Debt Nyaradi ‘Everywhere I looked yesterday, the world seemed to be
drowning in debt.
In
Portugal, bond spreads continue to widen as they prepare for a sale on January
12th while next door in Spain, their “D-Day” (debt day) sale comes on January
13th. France steps up on January 10th with more than $10 billion coming to
market with Italy following on January 11.
The
euro fell to the lowest level against the U.S. Dollar in three months in
anticipation of next week’s auctions while the U.S. Dollar Index rose +0.68%.
Closer
to home, Illinois struggles wtih a nearly $15 Billion hole that needs to be
filled and so is pushing for a tax hike to do the job while in California,
recycled Governor Jerry Brown promises to unveil a budget next week that will
be “painful.”
Meanwhile,
December retail sales originally ballyhooed as being the best in years turned
in a lackluster performance and the pesky problem of persistent unemployment
resurfaced yesterday with Initial Claims rising unexpectedly to 409,000 from
391,000 prior while Continuing Claims managed to fall.
Today
comes the big report and whisper numbers are huge improvements over recent
numbers.
Technically
there’s no breadth and no momentum to market action and we remain in very
overbought territory on nearly all indicators.
Daily Moves for Major ETFs:
Dow
Jones Industrials: (NYSEArca: DIA) -0.22%
Russell
2000: (NYSEArca: IWM) -0.47%
NASDAQ
100: (NasdaqGM: QQQQ) +0.32%
S&P
500 Index: (NYSEArca: SPY) -0.20%
MSCI
Emerging Markets:(NYSEArca: EEM) -1.07%%
MSCI
China (NYSEArca: FXI) -0.79%%
Gold
(NYSEArca: GLD) -0.40%
7-10
Year Treasuries: (NYSEArca: IEF) +0.52%
20+
Year Treasuries: (NYSEArca: TLT) +0.44%
VIX
+2.23%
U.S.
Dollar (NYSE:Arca: UUP) +0.77%
The major
indexes remain overvalued and overbought on a technical and fundamental basis
and so Wall Street Sector Selector remains in “Yellow Flag” status, expecting
choppy to lower prices ahead.’
Thursday's
Economic Data Roundup: Mixed News Roche ‘U.S. retailers posted weaker than
expected sales in December, the Monster job index declined from last month’s
highs and unemployment claims continued their steady trend lower. All in all it
was a very mixed day of data.
“Jobless claims haven’t been too bumpy this holiday period, moving convincingly lower. Claims did rise to 409,000 in the January 1 week yet follow the prior week’s 391,000 for the second best reading of the recovery (prior week revised from 388,000). The four-week average is telling the story, down 3,500 in the week for a 410,750 level that is down nearly 20,000from a month ago…’
US says too much fluoride causing splotchy teeth (AP) [ Actually,
flouride’s a poison which is actually used in such things as ‘rat poison’, but
has also historically been used to make ‘populations’ more docile /
controllable. I guess they figure they’ve finally gotten the controlled
american public zombies where they want them…mission accomplished…no need to
waste more flouride. ] In a remarkable turnabout, federal health officials say
many americans are now getting too much fluoride because of its presence not
just in drinking water but in toothpaste, mouthwash and other ...
DRUDGEREPORT: NYT SATURDAY: NUMBER OF
COMBAT INJURIES IN AFGHANISTAN APPROACHES IRAQ-WAR LEVELS... DEVELOPING...
'WE'RE
DIGGING OUT OF A HOLE' [ Example of sentiment: some comments - ‘…Barack Obama is a cooked goose. He is absolutely
the most incompetent president of the U.S. ever, so he continues to spin the
numbers in such a manner that might make him look good. News for him: NOTHING
will make you look good. Pretty is skin deep, incompetence goes clear to the
bone. "Let his days be few; and let another take his office." Psalms
109:8- RightStuff, Texas, USA, 7/1/2011 19:45
You know what happens when you keep digging a hole - you reach China and
that is what is going to finish the americans and Obamarama...- Olrik, Canada,
7/1/2011 19:41
'We're digging ourselves out of a hole' - Barack Hussein Obama To get
out of a hole you've dug so deep, is to STOP DIGGING, fill it up with soil so
you can climb OUT OF THE HOLE. STOP SPENDING OBAMA! STOP PRINTING MONEY! The US
dollar is weakening against YUAN of China. Republicans better start cutting all
spending, defund/repeal Obamacare, America is flat BROKE! If Republicans can't
rein all spending created by Pelosi and her peons, their DEBT would be BIGGER
than their economy.- Observer, over here, over there, 7/1/2011 19:33
Well the ammo index is still down, I guess having 3,000 rounds is
enough- NVBob, Richland WA USA, 7/1/2011 19:31
Fill in the hole, with Obama in it, at the bottom!- Stan, St Louis,
Missouri, USA, 7/1/2011 19:30
Jobs
report an 'utter mess'... ‘…However, some economists were less optimistic. 'It's a bit of a mixed
bag,' said Ryan Sweet, an economist at Moody's Analytics. Many analysts hoped
to see larger job gains, and the drop in the unemployment rate is unlikely to
be sustained, he said. 'The labour market ended last year with a bit of a
thud,' he said…’
China
plans $1.3 billion 'seven-star hotel'...
China
Backs Europe, Euro for Investing Reserves...
REPORT:
Too much fluoride in US water...
CBO
Says Repeal Would Reduce Spending by $540 Billion...’The Congressional Budget Office, in an email to
Capitol Hill staffers obtained by the Spectator, has said that
repealing the national health care law would reduce net spending by $540
billion in the ten year period from 2012 through 2021. That number represents
the cost of the new provisions, minus Medicare cuts. Repealing the bill would
also eliminate $770 billion in taxes. It's the tax hikes in the health care law
(along with the Medicare cuts) which accounts for the $230 billion in deficit
reduction…’
Republicans
reject cost estimate on health repeal (Washington Post) [
One thing’s certain … they’ll agree to disagree … $14 plus trillion and
counting and wobama the b for b*** s*** and co are worried about a couple
hundred billion … tax cuts to the rich …
(Davis ‘… This is how we
pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get
anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but
probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded
liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see
Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth
of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend
$1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is
no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all
of the time. THIS HOUSE
OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE!) ‘Then again, look at the war spending : Drudgereport: Congresswoman calls
Afghanistan 'national embarrassment'... 'Epic failure'... Rep. Lynn Woolsey (D-CA) talks about the
"disastrous" war that is Afghanistan. "This war represents an
epic failure, a national embarrassment and a moral blight," Rep. Woolsey
said. [ True enough! Though broke, they’re still voting for more war across the
board. But even more than that, this war is a blowback-creating,
self-perpetuating, self-destructive, self-defeating, colossally expensive
debacle benefiting only the war profiteers / lobbies and attendant frauds while
diverting attention from the more ’mundane’ tasks of governance of a failing,
pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt nation, viz., america. ]
PENTAGON BUDGET SLASH [
Riiiiight! … What’s $80 billion on a trillion dollar tab especially with those
off-budget special items whenever they so choose. ]: OBAMA TO CUT TROOPS ON ACTIVE DUTY
FEDS BREAK GROUND ON SUPER
SPY CENTER (Riiiiight! More spending on those ultra-efficient super-spies, ie.,
Iraq on a lie, illegal drug ops, 9-11 NORAD ordered to stand down, etc., though
u.s. defacto bankrupt)...
New Miami Police peeping
drone may be first in country; ACLU approves...
Man Arrested for Having
'Suspicious' Bagel on Plane...
Ex-CIA officer charged with
leak to NYT reporter...
Packages Cause
'Flash Explosions' At 2 State Gov't Buildings in MD...
One addressed to Gov...
US Treasury asks Congress to
lift debt ceiling...
Obama calls Gibbs $174,000
salary 'relatively modest' ( Come on! In pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt
america, government jobs for the otherwise unemployable at those levels are
over-priced and over-valued, as are other so-called executive jobs, ie., fraudulent
wall street, etc.. Look at their results! )... ] Boehner dismisses CBO forecast that rescinding law would raise deficit
by about $230 billion and leave 32 million more Americans uninsured.
Apprehension ahead of Moqtada al-Sadr speech (Washington Post) [ What is he expected to say?:
Thank you america for bombing, invading, and destroying his nation based on a
lie? Thank you america for killing, maiming innocent children, women, and men?
Thank you america for all the depleted uranium you’ve left behind? Thank you
america for removing your america-supported mad-dog tyrant sadam hussein who
foolishly played into his cia handlers’ trap regarding that green light for
Kuwait invasion over the slant-drilling by the latter from April Glasspie. I
don’t think so, and I don’t think the rest of the world nor his fellow Iraqis
think so. ] Lawmakers across Iraq's
political and ethnic spectrums wait for word from anti-American Shiite cleric
Moqtada al-Sadr, saying his first address after returning from nearly four
years of self-imposed exile in Iran would likely say a lot about his approach
to Iraq's government.
1 in 6 Americans Live in Poverty Tradermark ‘One of the biggest mega trends
happening in America is the bifurcation of society between the haves and the
have nots. Many of the jobs the 'underclass' once did are gone forever, while
others spent freely when times were good, and when the tide turned, have little
buffer. [Dec 8, 2007: Do the Bottom 80% of Americans Stand a
Chance?] After all, saving for a rainy day is what boring people do.
Others really never got off the ground, as the K-12 education system has
degraded dramatically the past few decades.Frankly the underlying trend - as
bad as it is on the surface - has been hidden by multiple bubbles, and most
recently, there has been a level of government assistance never seen before. [Nov 5, 2010: USA Today - Anti-Poverty Programs Surpass
Cost of Medicare] In terms of government spending. This brings up a
host of issues as any changes to the social safety net are going to send
millions past GO and directly to impoverished status (and yes there are people
gaming the system, but not tens of millions). There are myriad societal effects
of the transformation of America from a relative egalitarian society in the
1960s to a 2 or 3 class system - but those are topics for other posts we have
done.The official U.S. government tally of who is living in poverty is a joke.
We last looked at it about 16 months ago [Sep 19, 2009: US Poverty Rises to 11 Year High - But
Still Vastly Understated] For example, if you make $23,000 for a
family of 4 - you are not in poverty. If you are single and make $14,000 you
are not in poverty. I'm not sure in what counties except for rural Mississippi
you can accomplish that cost of living, but apparently the government believes
a middle class lifestyle is available at $25K for a family of 4 in all of
America. Or at least it would be inconvenient to admit otherwise. And yes once
more let me put the caveat that being "poor" in America is different
than being poor in Malawi, but in theory we should be comparing ourselves to
other first world countries.The AP has an interesting report of a new measure of
poverty in the U.S., based on the census. It has a different band of parameters
and shows an increase over the government's incredibly generous definition of
poverty. What is striking is the large increase in those in the over 65+ camp
who fall into poverty. Due to our consumption culture (encouraged by the
government at every turn, since we've transformed our economy from good
producing to services and consumption) many are entering the golden years with
little to nothing.Where once many had their mortgage paid off by the time they
retired and hence could live on a much lower income as their largest expense
was eliminated, now after a generation of serial refinancing and cash out to
finance buying 'what we deserve', many still have the mortgage to worry about
even at age 70+. There are many other factors we've discussed often - i.e. the
move from pensions to do it yourself savings in a country where saving is a sin
and spending is worshiped, the disaster that is the 401k system, etc. Unlike
the mortgage crisis which is playing out in a relative short period of time
(6-8 years), this grand economic experiment of running an economy on
consumption & services (you do my nails, I'll cut your hair, you serve me a
beer, I'll cut your lawn, you build a house, I'll default on it) is taking
decades to play out. But we're starting to see the first wave of results the
past 5-10 years, and it's not pretty.Bigger picture, there are enormous
stresses being formed at the bottom end of the society, and more and more are
being caught in the net. Anyone who truly believes there will be any serious
spending cuts at the federal level does not realize the (increasing) dependency
that has been created by the a multitude of poor decisions over the past few
decades. Indeed we fast approach the time when 1 in every 5 dollars of
"income" are government transfers. [May 25, 2010: 1 in 5.5 Dollars of American Income Now Via
Government; All time High] At this point, the genie is out of the
bottle and with a dysfunctional government whose only solution is layer on more
debt to kick the can down the road, our modern day plutonomy only grows in
power. [Sep 7, 2009: Citigroup - America; A Modern Day Plutonomy]
However, there appears nothing to be worried about since we've been well
trained to parrot the fact that as long as the S&P 500 only goes up,
everything in America is fine. Nothing to see here, move along (buy stocks as
you are moving of course).
Via AP
[Feb 20, 2009: NYT - Newly Poor Swell Lines @ Food Banks
Nationwide]
[Oct 22, 2010: Reuters - The Haves, the Have Nots, and the
Dreamless Dead]
[Sep 3, 2010: FT.com - The Crisis in Middle America]
[July 26, 2010: [Video] DatelineNBC - America's Increasing
Ranks of Poor]
Unemployment Claims Are Not What They Appear Adler
‘First-time unemployment claims rose by 52,038 to 577,279 in the week that
ended January 1. The Wall Street captive media is, as usual, fudging the
reports by reporting that claims were at 409,000, based on the seasonal hocus
pocus. They report an uptick of 18,000 instead of 52,000. Both Dow Jones and
Bloomberg are emphasizing that the 4 week moving average dropped sharply.
Again, this is based on seasonally adjusted fudge packing.The truth is that
while this year's end of year rise in claims is better than the past two years,
the numbers are still a lot worse than during good economic times. This week’s
jump of 52k compares with a rise of 88,929 in the week that ended 1/2/10. The
chart below shows that the normal seasonal uptrend is at a lower trend level
than the past two years, but well above 2006-2008. The insured unemployment
rate remains well above the 2004-2008 period. However, even that number may be
misleading because it uses a base number comprised of a 6 month average from
the period that ended in June. Because fewer people are now eligible, the
actual rate should be higher.[chart]Because new
claims are limited to those eligible, part of the downtrend in new claims is
due to the millions of persons losing eligibility. To account for that, the
next chart shows new claims as a percentage of those eligible. Here the
improving trend shows evidence of leveling off. The normal seasonal spike at
the beginning of January needs to hold around .053% to keep the downtrend from
the peaks of the past 2 years intact. The green line connects the most recent
week with the same week in prior years. Next week’s data should be the seasonal
peak.[chart]The
Department of Labor calculates the total number of covered employees quarterly,
using a 6 month average. The current figure is based on data from the first
half of 2010, which is not very useful now. However, it does imply that much of
the drop in continuing claims has come from those losing eligibility.[chart]The
following chart shows Continued Claims on an inverse scale, overlaid with stock
prices and Fed securities holdings. The inverse Continued Claims graph is a
directional proxy for total employment. The downtick at this time of year is
normal. The trend remains strong which suggests that the seasonally adjusted
payrolls data tomorrow should be positive. The consensus calls for a gain of
140,000. As I reported in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition
Treasury update to subscribers this week, wage tax withholding in December ran
15% ahead of November, but that probably reflects withholding from year end
bonuses rather than a significant increase in employment levels. The year to
year gain was more muted.[chart]It’s pretty
clear from this chart that the Fed is the driver of these trends, but that
other forces are at work causing diminishing returns.Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no
plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.’
Expecting Employment Surprise: Dave's Daily ‘There are a lot of wild estimates making the rounds for
employment data Friday. Consensus estimates for new jobs added range from
150-200K, but some whisper numbers are as high as 500K and that would shock
many sectors. Meanwhile stocks were hurt early by poorly received December same
store sales (despite bullish headlines to the contrary) and rebound higher in
Jobless Claims. Nevertheless, the dollar continued to rise as commodity markets
were still selling-off. The buzz remains inflation is heating up particularly
in food and energy so investors fear tightening even as the Fed is engaged in
QE. Now that's interesting!! Bond prices remained rather stable. The Fed tossed
in more POMO
activity Thursday. As that was announced stocks immediately rallied if only
briefly. What a coincidence! In advance of the all-important employment report
volume remained light and breadth negative.’
Are Investors Concerned About Rising Gas Prices? Rotblut
‘Bullish sentiment extended its streak of above-average readings to 18
consecutive weeks in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. This is the longest such
streak since 2004. The percentage of individual investors expecting stock
prices to rise over the next six months rose 4.3 percentage points to 55.9%.
The historical average is 39%.Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices
will stay essentially flat over the next six months, fell 2.5 percentage points
to 25.9%. Neutral sentiment has been below its historical average of 31% for 22
consecutive weeks.Bearish sentiment, expectations that stocks prices will fall
over the next six months, slipped 1.8 percentage points to 18.3%. Bearish
sentiment has been below its historical average of 30% for 15 out of the last
17 weeks.Bullish sentiment remains at historically high levels. One example of
this is the eight-week moving average of bullish sentiment, which is above 51%
for the third consecutive week. (It is at 51.4%.) This measure has not been
higher since January 2005. Other measures also suggest sentiment is running
hot, including the spread between bullish and bearish sentiment (37.6
percentage points) and the standard deviation (bullish sentiment is more than
one standard deviation above the historical mean). High bullish readings have
been correlated with market pullbacks, but other indicators should be analyzed
before predicting where stocks prices are headed.Individual investors are
continuing to feel optimistic about stock prices due to, in part, the sustained
rally and additional signs that the economy is recovering. News of upbeat 2011
forecasts from several market strategists is also playing a role.This week’s
special question asked AAII members whether they are concerned about the
potential impact rising gasoline prices will have the economic recovery.About
half of respondents described themselves as being somewhat worried about rising
prices at the pump. Many did think the economy will grow, though the pace of
the recovery might be slowed. Several members added the caveat that their
concerns are dependent on how high prices actually rise. A small number thought
higher prices would be good for their energy holdings or would increase demand
for fuel-efficient vehicles and other green initiatives. Here is a sampling of
the responses:
This week’s sentiment survey results:
Historical Averages:
The AAII Sentiment Survey has been conducted weekly since July 1987 and asks AAII members whether they think stock prices will rise, remain essentially flat, or fall over the next six months. The survey period runs from Thursday (12:01 a.m.) to Wednesday (11:59 p.m.). The survey and its results are available online.’
Less
Than 35% of All Stocks Are Undervalued Suttmeier ‘ValuEngine now shows that only
34.6% of more than 5,000 stocks are undervalued with 65.4% overvalued. A
reading below 35% may persist for a while, but typically the stock market tops
out when less than 35% of all stocks are undervalued. Fifteen of 16 sectors are
overvalued by 8.6% for Consumer Discretionary to 33.1% for Basic Industries.
Medical is the undervalued sector, but only by 1.4%. The major equity averages
are extremely overbought on both daily and weekly charts. The missing
ingredient for a top is the lack of nearby risky levels for the major averages.
The major equity averages straddle quarterly value levels, pivots and risky
levels favoring a reversal-oriented first quarter – 11,395 Dow, 1162.5 SPX,
2853 NASDAQ, 4671 Transports and 765.50 Russell 2000. The rise in the 30-year
yield above 4.5% is a major drag on equity valuations. With stock market
complacency as high as it is, Comex gold closed below its 50-day simple moving
average at 1380.6 for the first time since August 11. Nymex crude oil is above
this week’s pivot at $88.50. The euro is between its 200-day at 1.3080 and its
50-day at 1.3422, approaching a test of the 200-day. The Dow is well above my
annual pivot at 11,491 without a nearby risky level as the MOJO run continues.
Valuations are stretched with only 16.1% of all stocks undervalued by at least
20%, whereas 33.0% of all stocks are overvalued by more than 20%.[chart](Click
to enlarge)
It is difficult to find stocks to add to the ValuTrader Model
Portfolio as only 76
stocks are rated STRONG BUY or BUY with a market cap of at least five billion
and average daily trading volume of 500,000 shares or more, and projected to
gain at least 7.5% over the next twelve months. There are twelve stocks in the model
portfolio.
Key Levels From My Proprietary Analytics
10-year Note – (3.483) Weekly, annual and semiannual value levels are 3.714,
3.791 and 4.268 with a daily risky level at 3.371. Annual, semiannual and
monthly risky levels are 2.690, 2.441, 2.322 and 2.150.
Comex Gold – ($1373.7) Annual, semiannual and annual value levels are
$1356.5, $1300.6 and $1187.2 with a weekly pivot at $1380.0. Daily, monthly,
quarterly and semiannual risky levels are $1412.74, $1439.0, $1441.7 and
$1452.6.
Nymex Crude Oil – ($90.30) Semiannual and monthly value levels are $87.52 and
$75.74 with a weekly pivot at $88.50. Annual, semiannual and quarterly risky
levels are $99.91, $101.92, $107.14 and $110.87.
The euro –
(1.3149) Monthly and weekly value levels are 1.2805 and 1.2703 with quarterly
and daily pivots at 1.3227 and 1.3358, and semiannual and annual risky levels
at 1.4624, 1.4989, 1.6367 and 1.7312.
Daily Dow:
(11,723) Annual, quarterly, weekly, semiannual, monthly and semiannual value
levels are 11,491, 11,395, 11,334, 10,959, 10,427 and 9,449 with a daily pivot
at 11,687, and annual risky level at 13,890.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.’
Retailers
hold down stocks ahead of jobs data (Reuters) - Stocks
slipped on Thursday as soft retail sales and a sharp rise in the dollar left
investors edgy a day before December's U.S. employment report.
U.N.
group warns of possible food crisis (Washington Post) [ Possible? How ‘bout
it’s already begun and hence, inevitable particularly since worldwide with few
exceptions in looking to the u.s. as analogous to the self-destructive
compulsion of an addict or drunk they’ve jumped on the american crazy train,
from perpetual wars, to profligate spending, to over-printing of fiat paper
currencies, to mark to anything burial and cover-up and no-pros of fraudulent
paper schemes of the fraudulent wall street ilk / variety, etc. ] The Food and Agricultural Organization
said Wednesday that the world faces a "food price shock" after the
agency's benchmark index of farm commodities prices shot up last month.
How
the recession imploded states' finances (Washington Post) [ This is truly no joke! Municipal
Debt Threatens U.S. Economy Lim ‘The debt crisis that has taken down banks,
and even countries, threatens more than 100 American municipalities this year.
According to Meredith Whitney, who works as a US research analyst, local and
state debts are the biggest concerns to the US economy today. It is large
enough to derail economic recovery.
She said that,
There’s not a doubt on my mind that you will see a
spate of municipal bond defaults. You can see fifty to a hundred sizable
defaults – more. This will amount to hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of
defaults.
American states and cities have a total debt load of
around $2 trillion.
New Jersey government Chris Christie summarized it
clearly,
We spent too much on everything. We spent money we
didn’t have. We borrowed money just crazily. The credit card’s maxed out, and
it’s over. We now have to get to the business of climbing out of the hole.
We’ve been digging it for a decade or more. We’ve got to climb now, and a climb
is harder.
Cities from Madrid to Detroit are struggling to pay
off even just basic services such as street cleaning. Ms. Whitney’s comments are
likely to put focus on municipal bonds. She is ranked as one of the most
influential women in American business. While working for Oppenheimer, a New
York investment bank, she predicted that Citibank will cut its dividends.
Although she suffered from a lot of criticisms then, her analysis proved to be
correct as the bank was forced to seek government bail-out. Ms. Whitney has
since started her own consulting firm.
Deficit Already Affecting Public Spending
American states have spent almost $500 billion more
than tax revenues. In addition, they face another $1 trillion hole in pension
funds. Already, Detroit is cutting road repairs, cleaning services, police, and
lighting expenditures which affects 20% of the population. The city has
suffered from nearly two decades of decline due to US auto outsourcing. It no
longer generates enough wealth to provide services to its 900,000 inhabitants.
Meanwhile, Illinois is suffering from similar ills after spending twice as much
as it generated in tax. It is already six months behind on creditor payments.
It owes $400 million to the University of Illinois alone and has 21% chances of
defaulting on its debts. According to CMA Datavision which is a derivatives
information company, this percentage is more than any other state. Other states
such as California and Arizona are also taking steps to solve their debt
problems. California has raised university tuition fees by 32% while Arizona
sold its Supreme Court and state capitol buildings before leasing them back.
Florida is another state that may be hit by a default; this state is the center
of a real estate boom that went best recently.
Philip Brown, the managing director of Citigroup in
London said that,
It’s all part of the same parcel: public sector
indebtedness needs to be cut, it needs a lot of austerity and it hit the
central government first, and now is hitting local bodies.
Unlike banks and other financial institutions,
“cities are their own”. According to Andres Rodriguez-Pose, a professor of
economic geography at the London School of Economics, “cities will have to pay
for their debts, and in some cases they will have to carry out dramatic cuts,
such as Detroit’s.” If there is a city that best symbolizes distressed local
finances, it is Vallejo in California. Vallejo is a former US navy town located
near San Francisco. It has entered into Chapter Nine bankruptcy protection in
2008 and the effects are still resonating up to this day. The city is trying to
negotiate with the unions, which has refused to accept a plan to cut salary two
years ago. Vallejo has a population of around 120,000 but it carries $195
million in unfunded pension obligations. The town does not have enough local
industry to sustain its finances; property tax collection dropped dramatically
upon the collapse of the real estate market. Vallejo is given a C rating by
Standard & Poor, the lowest level. US cities are more susceptible to
defaults than their European counterparts because it relies mainly on municipal
bonds while European towns depend on government bailouts and bank loans.
Gold Expectations for 2011
Now, let’s take a look at long-term gold chart
(courtesy of StockCharts.com) to see how
bullion fared this week:
[chart] For some
time, gold has tried to break the upper border of the rising trend channel.
Gold prices have been wavering from $1,340 to $1,423 since October 5 with a
general upward slope. It has often just fallen by a fraction below the rising
trend line. There are signs that a break-out could be seen soon. We take into
account that gold is quite bullish at the onset of a new year. The $1,600
target still seems realistic for the early part of 2011. 2010 ended on a high
note for precious metals. Gold ended the year at $1,421 an ounce while silver
is at $30.91 an ounce. Overall, gold prices rose by 30% in 2010 while silver
leaped 80%. Prognostications abound in 2011. These forecasts consider the
outlook for currencies, inflation, and interest rates in the world’s largest
economies. We’ll examine some of the trends that may influence gold prices:Gold
prices tend to rise in times of projected or actual inflation due to the
bullion’s status as a “safe haven” asset. Investors who are seeking an asset
that reacts favorably to currency devaluation and inflation typically move some
of their wealth into gold. Right now, the Fed is more concerned about deflation
rather than inflation. As such, they show little reluctance to flood the US
economy with dollars. Meanwhile, countries such as India and China want
stronger economic growth. The result of this is higher inflation. China’s
prices are now 5.1% higher compared to a year ago while India projects an inflation
of 5.5% by March 2011. But the correlation between high inflation and high gold
prices isn’t set in stone. Although more inflation will initially favor high
gold prices, the countervailing policy of keeping interest rates to control
inflation sometimes makes interest-bearing instruments more attractive. As of
now, however, rates are not high enough to have an impact on gold prices.
Historically, the first two months of the year are good for gold. Buyers seek
back the gold positions they shed going into the New Year. The continuing
inflationary concerns can further support prices in 2011. The Reserve Bank of
India said that inflation is not slowing down as quickly as desired. In the US,
there are reports that companies are experiencing higher costs for staffing
and/or materials, but these costs are not yet being felt by the customers.
According to Frank Holmes, the CEO of US Global Investors, “The two pillars of
gold are, in any country’s currency, are negative real interest rate and
deficit spending.” Mr. Holmes believes that low interest rates won’t go away
anytime soon as this would be “catastrophic” to the financial system.’
World Food Prices Rise: Get Ready for the Riots? [ Food
Riots Next? FAO Says Food Prices Surpass Record Highs Seen During 2007-2008
Bubble infowars.com / prisonplanet.com
The last time food prices hit ridiculous levels, the immediate outcome was
global food riots in places such as Haiti and Bangladesh. ] Tradermark ‘As the 'financialization' of
every commodity of earth continues at pace, and easy money pours out of almost
every major central bank, we have now reached the point where food prices have
surpassed the record levels of 2008. [Feb
12, 2008: Wheat is Being Ruined by ... what else... Hedge Funds and Speculators]
[Apr
28, 2008: Wall Street Grain Hoarding Brings Farmers, Consumers Near Ruin] [Apr
6, 2008: Agflation Hits Rice - Prices Up 50% in 2 Weeks] What happened back
then? Just some minor issues such as rioting in many '2nd' and '3rd' world
countries. Looks like we need to prepare for another hot summer. And
domestically those food stamps are not going to go quite so far as they used
to. [Nov
10, 2009: Walmart Executive - "There are Families Not Eating at the End of
the Month"]
Oh well, just consider it collateral damage in The Bernank's plan to make us
(and Goldman, JPMorgan, et al) all
rich via asset inflation. (I will stop by some local food banks to let them
know they can make some mad money in the markets to offset the rising prices)
Just remember to blame it all on China - that was a great excuse back in 08,
even though we saw once leverage was taken out of the financial system prices
of commodities suddenly crashed. This repeating epidemic has no relationship at
all with financial speculation at all. Nope.
On a related note - a tip of the hat to Congress for the recent ethanol funding
expansion, snuck in during the lame duck. If there is one thing that makes
sense when we have the potential for global food crisis, it is putting
inefficient corn in our cars. [Mar
27, 2008: WSJ - Farm Lobby Beats Back Assault on Subsidies] The main saving
grace at this time is rice, which is massively important in the East. Too bad
there is not a rice ETF or else speculators with Ben's easy money supply
and demand dynamics could push it up much more quickly.
Via
Bloomberg:
Rising Asset Prices Cannibalize U.S. Growth , On Wednesday January 5, 2011,
7:44 pm EST
‘Rising
asset prices are bad for investors! At first glance this statement makes no
sense at all. Upon closer examination, however, there is much truth to this
statement. Bear with me for a couple of minutes and you'll see what I mean.
Rising Oil Prices - Good or Bad?
Perception
seems to have a bigger influence on news coverage than facts. A recent Wall
Street Journal front-page headline read that: 'Oil back at $90 as growth gains
pace.'According to the WSJ reporter, 'the recovery in oil prices is an
encouraging sign of world growth.' Wait a minute. Since when are rising oil
prices (NYSEArca: USO - News)
good for the economy?In early 2008, when oil prices were rising, economists
were in agreement that the ripple effect of rising crude would sap the American
consumer of precious discretionary funds.Obviously, the concept of cause and
effect is subject to interpretation. The same cause (rising oil prices) had a
different effect in 2008 than it has today. In 2008 it stifled the economy; in
2011 it's viewed as a sign of improvement.Because rising oil prices affect everybody,
they are often compared to a flat tax - like a sales tax. More money spent on
taxes means less money spent on items that help improve the economy. In fact,
some economists argue that rising crude negates much or all of the monetary
benefits of the tax cut extension.
Rising Commodity Prices - Good or Bad?
If
you've had your money in any single commodity like gold (NYSEArca: GLD
- News),
silver (NYSEArca: SLV - News),
agriculture (NYSEArca: DBA - News)
or broad commodity funds (NYSEArca: DBC
- News),
count yourself happy, but don't get greedy.Commodities had a great run, but
similar to high oil prices, high commodity prices cannibalize economic growth.
Why? The more money needed to spend on food staples, the more careful you have
to be with your discretionary spending.In a still battered real estate market,
homebuilders (NYSEArca: XHB - News)
have to pass on the extra cost of rising timber, iron and copper prices. What
this economy needs is an uptick in real estate prices, not a bigger price tag
for building or remodeling homes.
Major Growth Engines in Trouble
Despite
rising commodity prices, inflation has been a non-issue domestically, largely
because retailers don't have much pricing power.According to Dr. Jim Walker,
Founder of Asianomics Limited, higher commodity prices are already
impoverishing large parts of emerging markets (NYSEArca: EEM
- News)
and are sucking the demand from the poor and middle-income class of
society.Demand from the middle-class is the growth engine of a healthy economy.
Stifling the growth of the world's largest consumer base - China (NYSEArca: FXI
- News)
- can't be good for business.
The 'New Economy'
Many
readers remember a time when the U.S. was a production powerhouse, when General
Electric earned profits with items of tangible value not TV stations and financial
products; a time where GDP was built on ingenuity, hard work and sweat.The
ingenuity portion of the equation is still alive, but look at its transition.
The country's biggest and most successful company - Apple - manufactures and
assembles nearly all of its products in China.The country's newest and most
powerful companies - Groupon and Facebook - were created out of thin air. No
disrespect to Mark Zuckerberg and Andrew Mason - they came up with the right
concept at the right time - but what role does Facebook and Groupon play in the
'new economy?'Facebook is valued at $50 billion, that's more than triple the
market cap of Alcoa. How and what does Facebook contribute to U.S. gross
domestic products (GDP) and real organic economic growth? Yes, Facebook employs
about a thousand people, but what else?How about Groupon? Groupon is an
ingenious business model and has changed (or is about to change) the way
Americans shop. Wall Street is cheering Groupon and can't wait for the IPO.
However, the new way of buying nurtures frugality and robs restaurants and
retail stores of their pricing power. Consumers just won't buy unless they get
a 50%+ discount.Don't get me wrong, I have an above average appreciation for
coupons - probably because there was no such thing when I grew up in Germany-
but Groupon is the antidote to inflation. My guess is that even Bernanke would
agree.
Air-pocket Protection
I
often hear that technical indicators don't work in an environment where the Fed
controls the market and inflates prices at will.If you believe the Fed is
pumping up major indexes like the Dow (DJI: ^DJI), S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) and
Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) you must be wondering how long that will work. If this
rally isn't value driven - which in my humble opinion it isn't - stocks have
nowhere to go but down, eventually.In essence, the Fed is creating a new bubble
in an attempt to mop up the spill left behind by the previous bust. It doesn't
take an investment wizard to figure out that this bubble will also burst,
eventually. When it does, it will probably get ugly.How do you invest in a
market where another potential meltdown lurks behind every correction? You
monitor the markets vital signs. How? Technical indicators are the best way.
Technical Analysis - More Valueable than Ever
Using
purely technical gauges, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter has identified
various long-risk entries (to the upside) since the S&P broke above its
200-day moving average (at the time at 1,115).Technical analysis includes, but
is not limited to, interpreting the effect candle formations, chart patterns
(such as the ascending triangle or W pattern), acceleration bands, Fibonacci
levels, and trading brackets have on prices.A technical approach to the market
takes the bias out of investing. Personally, I am bearish on the market, but
have learned to trust technicals and wait for high probability set ups, long or
short.Despite the recent sentiment extremes, which rivaled or exceeded readings
recorded at the 2007 highs, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter has been
expecting prices to reach 1,285 for the S&P. [chart]On December
12, the newsletter commented as follows on the W pattern: 'The W pattern
(opposite of the bearish M pattern) is a bullish pattern. The upside target is
calculated by the difference between the left side of the W and the bottom of
the W (1,227 - 1,173 = 54). The difference is then added to the right breakout
of 1,227 (1,227 + 54 = 1,281).'Markets tend to reverse around major resistance
points, one of which surrounds the 1,281 area. What happens when stocks (or
other asset classes) change direction from up to down? Will it be a temporary
correction or a protracted decline?’
Stocks Get Lift From Financials and Economic Data - Midnight Trader 4:09 PM, Jan 5, 2011 – ‘
GLOBAL SENTIMENT
UPSIDE MOVERS
(+) ATHR sold to QCOM for $3.5 bln. QCOM up 1.7%.
(+) XING takes new mining stake.
(+) MOS continues evening gain that followed earnings beat.
(+) YOKU gains as Inception offered through premium service.
(+) PPHM starts study on pancreatic cancer treatment.
(+) OPXA to Pursue Phase 3 Clinical Study for Tovaxin in Multiple Sclerosis
After Successful Meetings with FDA.
(+) WAG up after same-store sales figures.
DOWNSIDE MOVERS
(-) MTSN continues evening loss that followed earnings warning.
(-) TRID cuts outlook.
(-) DUK downgraded.
MARKET DIRECTION
Stock averages close near the top end of the day's range after a slippery start
to the trading session. Gains for financial shares rallied the broader market
from the choppy trade seen for much of Wednesday's session.
The S&P Financial index gained 1%. Shares of American International Group (AIG) set the tone. The insurance
giant - which is in the process of selling assets to repay a U.S. bailout -
said it received a $3 billion offer for its Taiwan unit, Nan Shan Life
Insurance, Bloomberg reported. Yesterday, AIG shares declined after it received
a proposal from a local Taiwan company to buy a stake in AIG's Taiwan unit. The
proposal from home security company Taiwan Secom Group is seen as pleasing
regulators but likely is contrary to AIG's interests.
Early economic data supported stock gains. The ADP Employer Services survey
showed a rise in private payrolls in December of 297,000, nearly triple the
number forecast by economists. The report came two days before the government's
employment report, and more evidence of improvement in the still weak job
market could support multiyear highs for stock averages.
Also reported, the Institute for Supply Management reported the vast U.S.
services sector grew in December at its fastest pace in more than four years.
The December ISM non-manufacturing gauge came in at
57.1, up 2.1 points from November and better than MarketWatch-compiled
consensus expectation among economists for 55.6. The employment sub-index
decreased 2.2 percentage points to 50.5, indicating growth in employment for
the fourth consecutive month, but at a slower rate.
Commodities finished mixed as crude futures gained, natural gas plummeted and
gold futures ended at a three-week low.
Crude oil for February delivery finished up $0.92, or 1%, to $90.30 a barrel.
In other energy futures, heating oil was up 1.43% to $2.54 a gallon while
natural gas was plummeted by 4.11% to $4.47 per million British thermal units.
Meanwhile, gold futures dipped to their lowest level in three weeks. Bullion
contracts came off lows though as investors bought on the decline.
Gold for February delivery finished down $5.10 to $1,373.70 an ounce. In other
metal futures, silver was down 4.8% to $29.64 a troy ounce while copper rose
0.69% to $4.39 a pound.
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) is
up 1.1% to $80.32.’
Municipal
Debt Threatens U.S. Economy Lim ‘The debt crisis that has taken down banks,
and even countries, threatens more than 100 American municipalities this year.
According to Meredith Whitney, who works as a US research analyst, local and
state debts are the biggest concerns to the US economy today. It is large
enough to derail economic recovery.
She said that,
There’s not a doubt on my mind that you will see a
spate of municipal bond defaults. You can see fifty to a hundred sizable
defaults – more. This will amount to hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of
defaults.
American states and cities have a total debt load of
around $2 trillion.
New Jersey government Chris Christie summarized it
clearly,
We spent too much on everything. We spent money we
didn’t have. We borrowed money just crazily. The credit card’s maxed out, and
it’s over. We now have to get to the business of climbing out of the hole.
We’ve been digging it for a decade or more. We’ve got to climb now, and a climb
is harder.
Cities from Madrid to Detroit are struggling to pay off
even just basic services such as street cleaning. Ms. Whitney’s comments are
likely to put focus on municipal bonds. She is ranked as one of the most
influential women in American business. While working for Oppenheimer, a New
York investment bank, she predicted that Citibank will cut its dividends.
Although she suffered from a lot of criticisms then, her analysis proved to be
correct as the bank was forced to seek government bail-out. Ms. Whitney has
since started her own consulting firm.
Deficit Already Affecting Public Spending
American states have spent almost $500 billion more
than tax revenues. In addition, they face another $1 trillion hole in pension
funds. Already, Detroit is cutting road repairs, cleaning services, police, and
lighting expenditures which affects 20% of the population. The city has
suffered from nearly two decades of decline due to US auto outsourcing. It no
longer generates enough wealth to provide services to its 900,000 inhabitants.
Meanwhile, Illinois is suffering from similar ills after spending twice as much
as it generated in tax. It is already six months behind on creditor payments.
It owes $400 million to the University of Illinois alone and has 21% chances of
defaulting on its debts. According to CMA Datavision which is a derivatives
information company, this percentage is more than any other state. Other states
such as California and Arizona are also taking steps to solve their debt
problems. California has raised university tuition fees by 32% while Arizona
sold its Supreme Court and state capitol buildings before leasing them back.
Florida is another state that may be hit by a default; this state is the center
of a real estate boom that went best recently.
Philip Brown, the managing director of Citigroup in
London said that,
It’s all part of the same parcel: public sector
indebtedness needs to be cut, it needs a lot of austerity and it hit the
central government first, and now is hitting local bodies.
Unlike banks and other financial institutions,
“cities are their own”. According to Andres Rodriguez-Pose, a professor of
economic geography at the London School of Economics, “cities will have to pay
for their debts, and in some cases they will have to carry out dramatic cuts,
such as Detroit’s.” If there is a city that best symbolizes distressed local
finances, it is Vallejo in California. Vallejo is a former US navy town located
near San Francisco. It has entered into Chapter Nine bankruptcy protection in
2008 and the effects are still resonating up to this day. The city is trying to
negotiate with the unions, which has refused to accept a plan to cut salary two
years ago. Vallejo has a population of around 120,000 but it carries $195
million in unfunded pension obligations. The town does not have enough local
industry to sustain its finances; property tax collection dropped dramatically
upon the collapse of the real estate market. Vallejo is given a C rating by
Standard & Poor, the lowest level. US cities are more susceptible to
defaults than their European counterparts because it relies mainly on municipal
bonds while European towns depend on government bailouts and bank loans.
Gold Expectations for 2011
Now, let’s take a look at long-term gold chart
(courtesy of StockCharts.com) to see how
bullion fared this week:
[chart] For some
time, gold has tried to break the upper border of the rising trend channel.
Gold prices have been wavering from $1,340 to $1,423 since October 5 with a
general upward slope. It has often just fallen by a fraction below the rising
trend line. There are signs that a break-out could be seen soon. We take into
account that gold is quite bullish at the onset of a new year. The $1,600
target still seems realistic for the early part of 2011. 2010 ended on a high
note for precious metals. Gold ended the year at $1,421 an ounce while silver
is at $30.91 an ounce. Overall, gold prices rose by 30% in 2010 while silver
leaped 80%. Prognostications abound in 2011. These forecasts consider the
outlook for currencies, inflation, and interest rates in the world’s largest
economies. We’ll examine some of the trends that may influence gold prices:Gold
prices tend to rise in times of projected or actual inflation due to the
bullion’s status as a “safe haven” asset. Investors who are seeking an asset
that reacts favorably to currency devaluation and inflation typically move some
of their wealth into gold. Right now, the Fed is more concerned about deflation
rather than inflation. As such, they show little reluctance to flood the US
economy with dollars. Meanwhile, countries such as India and China want
stronger economic growth. The result of this is higher inflation. China’s
prices are now 5.1% higher compared to a year ago while India projects an
inflation of 5.5% by March 2011. But the correlation between high inflation and
high gold prices isn’t set in stone. Although more inflation will initially
favor high gold prices, the countervailing policy of keeping interest rates to
control inflation sometimes makes interest-bearing instruments more attractive.
As of now, however, rates are not high enough to have an impact on gold prices.
Historically, the first two months of the year are good for gold. Buyers seek
back the gold positions they shed going into the New Year. The continuing
inflationary concerns can further support prices in 2011. The Reserve Bank of
India said that inflation is not slowing down as quickly as desired. In the US,
there are reports that companies are experiencing higher costs for staffing
and/or materials, but these costs are not yet being felt by the customers.
According to Frank Holmes, the CEO of US Global Investors, “The two pillars of
gold are, in any country’s currency, are negative real interest rate and
deficit spending.” Mr. Holmes believes that low interest rates won’t go away
anytime soon as this would be “catastrophic” to the financial system.’
October 15, 2010 (*see infra)
Steven M. Martinez, Assistant Director In Charge
Federal Bureau of Investigation, USDOJ
11000 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 1700
Los Angeles, CA 90024
Dear Sir:
I enclose herewith 3
copies of the within DVD rom autorun disk (which will open in your computer’s
browser) as per your office’s request as made this day (the disk and contents
have been scanned by Avast, McAfee, and Norton which I’ve installed on my
computer to prevent viral attacks / infection and are without threat). I also
include 1 copy of the DVD as filed with the subject court as referenced therein
(which files are also included on the aforesaid 3 disks in a separate folder
named ‘112208opocoan’). The (civil) RICO action (as you’re aware, the RICO Act
is a criminal statute which provides a civil remedy, including treble damages
and attorney fees, as an incentive for private prosecution of said claims
probably owing to the fact that the USDOJ seems somewhat overwhelmed and in
need of such assistance given the seriousness and prevalence of said violations
of law which have a corrupting influence on the process, and which corruption
is pervasive). A grievance complaint against Coan was also filed concurrently
with the subject action and held in abeyance pending resolution of the action
which was illegally dismissed without any supporting law and in contravention
of the Order of The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge, USDC, District
Connecticut. The files below the horizontal rule are the referenced documents
as filed. (Owing to the damage to the financial interests of both the U.S. and
the District of Congresswoman Roybal-Allard, viz., Los Angeles, the
Qui Tam provisions of the Federal
False Claims Act probably would apply and I would absent resolution seek to
refer the within to a firm with expertise in that area of the law with which I
am not familiar).
The document in 5 pages under penalty of
perjury I was asked to forward to the FBI office in New Haven is probably the
best and most concise summary of the case
RICO Summary to FBI Under Penalty
of Perjury at Their Request (5 pages) [
ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://albertpeia.com/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf ].
The correspondence I
received from the Congresswoman by way of email attachment (apparent but
typical problem with my mail) along with my response thereto is included on the
3 disks as fbicorrespondencereyes.htm . With regard to the
calls to the FBI’s LA and New Haven, CT offices: There was one call to the LA
office and I was referred to the Long Beach, CA office where I personally met
with FBI Agent Jeff Hayes to whom I gave probative evidentiary documents of the
money laundering which he confirmed as indicative of same (he was transferred
from said office within approximately a month of said meeting and his location
was not disclosed to me upon inquiry). The matter was assigned to FBI Agent Ron
Barndollar and we remained in touch for in excess of a decade until he abruptly
retired (our last conversation prior to his retirement related to the case and
parenthetically, Rudy Giuliani whose father I stated had been an enforcer for
the mob to which he registered disbelief and requested I prove it, which I did
– he served 12 years in prison, aggravated assault/manslaughter? – and no,
there is no Chinese wall of separation – Andrew Maloney’s the one that
prosecuted gotti).
In contradistinction
to the statement in said correspondence, there is a plethora of information
including evidence supporting the claims set forth in the RICO VERIFIED COMPLAINT (see infra). Such includes and as set
forth in the case, inter alia,
There is applicable insurance / surety coverage and neither LA, nor
creditors, nor I should continue to have been damaged by this brazened corrupt
and illegal scenario, which should be resolved in accordance with the
meaningful rules of law apposite thereto.
Sincerely,
Albert L. Peia
611 E. 5th Street, #404
Los Angeles, CA 90013
(213) 219-**** (cell phone)
(213) 622-3745 (listed land line but there are unresolved problems with
the line, computer connection may be the reason but I hesitate to chance
greater non-performance / worsening by their ‘fix’ so cell phone best for
contact).
----------
*The foregoing and as
indicated therein was previously send 9-14-10 but delivery confirmation was
flawed as set forth below and my inquiries to the u.s. postal service rebuffed
(I believe tampered with inasmuch as your office could not locate same). This
cover letter (9-13-10) is on the 3 disks with navigable hyperlinks to the
subject files for ease of reference, including the files in the RICO action as
indicated. (10-15-10) I spoke with Rose, FBI, ADIC Secretary, who indicates
once again that your office has not received the aforesaid and which can
reasonably be presumed to have been tampered with, and hence, a violation of
the federal statute concerning same. ]
The following
are 25 unemployment statistics that are almost too depressing to read….
#1 According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the
U.S. unemployment rate for November was 9.8
percent. This was up from 9.6 percent in October, and it continues a
trend of depressingly high unemployment rates. The official unemployment
number has been at 9.5 percent or higher for well over a year at this point.
#2 In November 2006, the “official” U.S. unemployment
rate was just 4.5
percent.
#3 Most economists had been expecting the U.S. economy
to add about 150,000 jobs in November. Instead, it
only added 39,000.
#4 In the United States today, there are over 15
million people who are “officially” considered to be unemployed for
statistical purposes. But everyone knows that the “real” number is even
much larger than that.
#5 As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million
Americans that had been unemployed for half a year or longer. Today,
there are over
6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.
#6 The number of “persons not in the labor force” in
the United States recently
set another new all-time record.
#7 It now takes the average unemployed American over
33 weeks to find a job.
#8 When you throw in “discouraged workers” and
“underemployed workers”, the “real” unemployment rate in the state of
California is
actually about 22 percent.
#9 In America today there are not nearly enough jobs
for everyone. In fact, there are now approximately
5 unemployed Americans for every single job opening.
#10 According
to The New York Times, Americans that have been unemployed for five weeks
or less are three times more likely to find a new job in the coming month than
Americans that have been unemployed for over a year.
#11 The U.S. economy would need to create 235,120
new jobs a month to get the unemployment rate down to pre-recession levels
by 2016. Does anyone think that there is even a prayer that is going to
happen?
#12 There are 9
million Americans that are working part-time for “economic reasons”.
In other words, those Americans would gladly take full-time jobs if they could
get them, but all they have been able to find is part-time work.
#13 In 2009, total wages, median wages, and average
wages all
declined in the United States.
#14 As of the end of 2009, less than 12 million
Americans worked in manufacturing. The last time that less
than 12 million Americans were employed in manufacturing was in 1941.
#15 The United States has lost at least 7.5
million jobs since the recession began.
#16 Today, only
about 40 percent of Ford Motor Company’s 178,000 workers are employed
in North America, and a big percentage of those jobs are in Canada and
Mexico.
#17 In 1959, manufacturing represented 28
percent of U.S. economic output. In 2008, it represented 11.5
percent.
#18 Earlier this year, one poll found that 28% of all American households had at least one member that
was looking for a full-time job.
#19 In the United States today, over
18,000 parking lot attendants have college degrees.
#20 The United States has lost a staggering
32 percent of its manufacturing jobs since the year 2000.
#21 As the employment situation continues to stagnate,
millions of American families have decided to cut back on things such as
insurance coverage. For example, the percentage of American households
that have life insurance coverage is at its lowest level in
50 years.
#22 Unless Congress acts, and there is no indication
that is going to happen, approximately 2 million Americans will stop receiving unemployment checks over the next
couple of months.
#23 A poll that was released by the Pew Research Center
back in June discovered that an
astounding 55 percent of the U.S. labor force has
experienced either unemployment, a pay decrease, a reduction in hours
or an involuntary move to part-time work since the economic downturn
began.
#24 According to Richard McCormack, the United States
has lost over
42,000 factories (and counting) since 2001.
#25 In the United States today, 317,000
waiters and waitresses have college degrees.
But this is
what we get for creating the biggest debt
bubble in the history of the world. For decades we have been digging
a deeper hole for ourselves by going into increasingly larger amounts of
debt. In America today, our entire economy is based on debt. Even
our money
is debt. We were fools if we ever thought this could go on forever.
Just think about it. Have you ever gone out and run up a bunch of
debt? It can be a lot of fun sitting behind the wheel of a new car,
running your credit cards up to the limit and buying a beautiful big house that
you cannot afford. But in the end what happens? It always catches up with you.
Well, our collective debt is starting to catch up with us. There is a sea
of red ink on every level of American society. It is only a matter of
time before it destroys our economy. IF YOU THINK THAT
THINGS ARE BAD NOW, JUST WAIT. THINGS ARE GOING TO GET A WHOLE LOT
WORSE. A HORRIFIC ECONOMIC COLLAPSE IS COMING, AND IT IS GOING TO BE
VERY, VERY PAINFUL.’
Timid
Tuesday: Is it Safe? Davis
‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are
simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of
global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form
of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh)
is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut
$100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while
continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each
year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of
the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT
THERE! ‘
Short-Term, High-Probability Mean-Reversion Indicator:
Overbought Readings Continue to Increase Crowder ‘It was the best
start to a year in over seven years, but I am not sure how long Monday’s gain
will last, at least over the short-term.According to my High-Probability,
Mean-Reversion overbought/oversold indicator, most of the ETFs I follow have
pushed into a short-term “overbought” to “very overbought” state. As I have
stated ad nauseum, when this many ETFs hit a short-term extreme the market
typically takes a short-term reprieve (1-3 days).The XLB
position that is currently held in the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion
strategy moved in the red Monday although it was only a slight move. The position,
in my opinion, still looks rather well-positioned given the short-term extreme
overbought state of the market and XLB.Since I placed the trade there have been
some incredibly large positions taken in XLB. Someone sure thinks the Materials
sector (XLB) is headed south. Check it out here.The year ended with some nice gains as
the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion strategy made 9.7% gains for the month to
follow up the 3.7% in November. Not bad for the first two months of the
strategy. Hopefully 2011 will bring allow for more gains in the strategy.As I
stated last week, going back over the last seven years, if you purchased QQQQ on the 8th trading day of January and
held until the end of the month, you would have had returns of -2.3%, -3.1%,
-2.3%, -2.7%, -4.1%, -1.6% and -7.7%. The median maximum gain during those
trades was +0.7% compared to a median draw down of -5.3%.
Short-Term High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator – as of
close 1/03/10
Benchmark ETFs
* S&P 500 (SPY)
– 86.5 (very overbought) / RSI (2) – 96.5
* Dow Jones (DIA)
–79.5 (overbought)
* Russell 2000 (IWM)
– 71.4 (overbought)
* NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
– 74.5 (overbought)
Sector
ETFs
*
Biotech (IBB)
– 62.5 (neutral)
* Consumer Discretionary (XLY)
– 70.5 (overbought)
* Health Care (XLV)
– 72.5 (overbought)
* Financial (XLF)
– 84.2 (very overbought)
* Energy (XLE)
– 89.5 (very overbought) / RSI (2) – 98.8
* Gold Miners (GDX)
– 48.5 (neutral)
* Industrial (XLI)
– 80.1 (very overbought)
* Materials (XLB)
– 91.4 (very overbought) / RSI (2) – 95.7
* Real Estate (IYR)
– 85.8 (very overbought) / RSI (2) – 96.0
* Retail (RTH) – 76.2
(overbought)
* Semiconductor (SMH) – 61.8
(neutral)
* United States Oil Fund (USO)
– 64.1 (neutral)
* Utilities (XLU)
– 68.3 (neutral)
International
ETFs
*
Brazil (EWZ)
– 82.0 (very overbought) / RSI (2) – 98.7
* China 25 (FXI)
– 72.2 (overbought)
* EAFE (EFA)
– 77.4 (overbought)
* South Korea (EWY)
– 91.9 (very overbought) / RSI (2) – 99.1
Commodity
ETFs
*
Gold (GLD) – 64.9 (neutral)
Ultra
Extremes
* Small Cap Bear 3x (TZA)
– 24.6 (oversold)
* Small-Cap Bull 3x (TNA)
– 74.1 (overbought)
* UltraLong QQQQ (QLD) –
75.4 (overbought)
* Ultra Long S&P 500 (SSO)
– 90.2 (very overbought)
* Ultra Short S&P 500 (SDS)
– 10.7 (very oversold)
* UltraShort 20+ Treasury (TBT)
– 43.5 (neutral)
Disclosure: I am short XLB.’
When
the Going Gets Tough, Governments Seize Private Pensions Depew ‘If you were
of an Austrian economics bent, and could read Polish, you'd find this article
from Mises.pl, about governments
seizing private pension funds to make up for revenue shortfalls, fascinating.
But perhaps you cannot read Polish? Very well. The Christian Science Monitor
has an English version of the article translated via The Adam Smith Institute Blog.
The most striking example is Hungary, where last month
the government made the citizens an offer they could not refuse. They could
either remit their individual retirement savings to the state, or lose the
right to the basic state pension (but still have an obligation to pay
contributions for it). In this extortionate way, the government wants to gain
control over $14bn of individual retirement savings.
The Bulgarian government has come up with a similar idea. $300m of private
early retirement savings was supposed to be transferred to the state pension
scheme. The government gave way after trade unions protested and finally only
about 20% of the original plans were implemented.
A slightly less drastic situation is developing in Poland. The government wants
to transfer of 1/3 of future contributions from individual retirement accounts
to the state-run social security system. Since this system does not back its
liabilities with stocks or even bonds, the money taken away from the savers
will go directly to the state treasury and savers will lose about $2.3bn a
year.
Beware
of the Wall Street Pump Job The Housing Time Bomb [ The old new pump and
dump! ]’ Articles
like the one below really bother me after the rally we have seen in the
past two years:
Is the retail investor returning to stocks?
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks just posted back-to-back years of strong
gains, yet the small U.S. investor largely remained a spectator. Now financial
advisers say investors, many of whom rode out the financial crisis in cash and
bonds, are slowly regaining confidence."What I'm seeing now is there's a
lot more talk about getting into stocks," said David Gottlieb, a Cleveland
adviser for Edward Jones, a nationwide brokerage catering to middle-class Americans.Gottlieb,
who for several months has encouraged clients to increase their stock
allocations, advises reducing bond holdings and buying dividend-paying
stocks.The Standard & Poor's 500 Index kicked off the new year by rising
1.1 percent on Monday, reaching levels not seen since the weeks before Lehman
Brothers collapsed in September 2008. Large company shares, as a group, have
nearly doubled since their March 2009 lows, reflecting two years of
double-digit gains.Worries of a banking system collapse and the deepest
recession in more than 70 years drove many retail investors out of the stock
market back in 2008. And the May 2010 "flash crash," when stocks lost
700 points in minutes for no apparent reason, further undermined confidence.
Investors showed their dismay by pulling money from stock mutual funds month
after month, opting for the perceived safety of cash and bonds.
My Take:
What's your point Reuters? Are you telling investors to buy stocks because
confidence is slowly coming back? Is that a solid fundamental reason to buy?Is
now really the time to buy stocks after the equity markets have
basically doubled since the lows?There are just as many money managers advising
caution in our current investment environment as there are money managers who
are advising investors to take on more risk. There are severe structural issues
with our economy that are not going away, and it angers me that just about
every article out of the media slants their articles into suggesting that you
should buy stocks.Shouldn't the media be totally skeptical of Wall St. after
watching equities plummet 50% twice within the same decade? Also,
let's not forget that these are the same criminals that just finished putting
of millions of Americans into homes that they cannot afford which are worth 30%
less than what they paid for them.Shouldn't the press be relentlessly hammering
Wall St after causing Americans so much financial pain in the last decade? I
don't get it:Why does Wall St. always get a free pass when they destroy
America's 401k's? Why isn't the article above titled "Is Now the
time to sell stocks after a 90% rally?" The media needs to
understand that they have a responsibility when they write this kinda fluff. To
be fair Reuters did toss in a paragraph in the middle of the piece warning of
the risks of getting into stocks:
Still, some advisers are being very cautious.William
Jordan of William Jordan Associates in Laguna Hills, California, says he is
telling clients not to increase their stock exposures."As good as the past
two years have been, you can't say the stock market is undervalued. I'm not
bailing out, but I'm advising people to take some profits."Clients also
are encouraged to stick with their investment plans. Scott Smallman, a Seattle
broker for Wedbush Securities, said he has been checking to see if the stock
market rebound has pushed some stock exposures too high."When markets are
good, our job is to talk clients down from the ceiling," said Smallman,
who on Monday encouraged some clients to consider buying municipal bonds."
The Bottom Line
In my opinion, this article is far from "fair and balanced". Reuters
quoted 4 "pump monkey" advisers suggesting that everyone should be
piling into stocks versus only 2 advisers that were "cautious". There
were zero "bears" in the piece which is ridiculous when you look at
Wall Street's performance over the last 10 years. You are down 20% if you
listened to these bubble makers over the last decade. There are numerous
potentially catastrophic risks that remain out there and they are rarely if
ever laid out by the MSM. High unemployment, bankrupt banks, and insolvent
countries are just just a few that come to mind.I am amazed at how short all of
our memories are when it comes to Wall St. The financial system was brought to
it's knees two years ago by these pigs, and it's still sitting there crippled
as the Fed runs up the credit card pretending that the economy is
recovering.The MSM should be ashamed of themselves for ignoring the financial
fraud and printing pieces of garbage like the one above.What ever happened to
hardcore journalism? Walter Cronkite must be rolling over in his grave. Sadly,
our media outlets now have the attention span of an 8 year old with ADD. If the
news is a week old then it's history in their books.’ [ If it was only attention that was lacking
there’d be at least a modicum of hope. The really sadly here is that most
understand so little of what’s going on and those that do (understand) are want
to report it; you know, mum’s the word, code omerta, no party-poopers allowed,
etc.. ]
U.S.-built
infrastructure is deteriorating (Washington Post) [ At first glance, I
thought this article was miscategorized as a national story in the World
section. Indeed, there’s no denying the truth of the title as america
generally, domestically. Yet, the tragedy is that the tainted, destructive,
self-defeating wars for america have been a boon for war profiteers, frauds of
all stripes, when this defacto bankrupt america is sorely in need of repair,
replacement of its own shoddy, aging infrastructure suffering from the domestic
equivalent of similar scams, kickbacks, shoddy workmanship and all. After all,
it got to the point that they didn’t even go through the motions / façade and
actually flew $12 billion in hundred dollar bills into Iraq which to this day
is unaccounted for / unprosecuted … like the wall street frauds, since the
worthless toxic paper cashed out by wall street is still out there in the
trillions now marked to anything. ] Roads, canals and schools built in
Afghanistan as part of a special U.S. military program are crumbling under
Afghan stewardship, despite new steps imposed over the past year to ensure
reconstruction money is not being wasted, according to government reports.
Profit
From the Rally's Inevitable End: My Correction Wish List Invest Chief ‘As we say goodbye to 2010, we look towards
the future and what 2011 will bring. As you may or may not know, bullish
optimism hit historical highs for the outlook of 2011. I mean you could find
the wildest outlooks, such as Dow 20,000, housing crisis solved, unemployment
6%, etc.There was certainly no shortage of ridiculous claims that will not come
true. The point is, the best way for success in the markets is to simply roll
with the punches. Whether the Dow goes to 6,000 or 60,000, you must roll with
the punches and profit from the changes. If you are too focused on a certain
Dow level or other catalyst, you may be waiting for a long time, missing out on
profits along the way.The first “punch” investors are going to get is a
correction. The Dow had a huge run in December and investors will be taking
profits as they had begun to do in the last few trading days in 2010. It is
advised that you take profits and wait for the correction. While the correction
is occurring, select a “wish list” of companies that you would like to snatch
up at cheaper prices. That way all you have to do is place orders. The homework
to value your stocks should be your reasoning to place them on your “wish
list”.I have my “wish list” ready to go. Here are a few of my stocks that I am
planning on buying during the correction:
Shell is one of the best integrated oil
plays right now. It pays over 5% dividend, P/E of 13.3, financially stable,
good cash flow. It should also be noted that Shell recently inked a huge deal
with Qatar, which should help boost earnings no doubt.Hartford was devastated
by the 2008 crisis, dropping from its high of $66 the stock now stands at
26.50. Hartford is the most undervalued company its industry, in cash flow.
Also, it has a P/E of 11. Hartford has a good management team behind it and it
will surely blossom as the economy recovers.
Diana Shipping has been catching big
money’s attention lately. Diana is pretty undervalued with a P/E of 7.8. Diana
outpaces the rest of its industry in ROE, debt/equity, growth, and cash flow.
Diana is a great stock if you want exposure to bulk shipping. A well known
competitor of Diana Shipping is DryShips (DRYS). Based on value, Diana is a
better call.First Niagara is a regional bank with 171 branches in the Northeast
United States. First Niagara is one of the stronger regional banks which makes
it a good takeover play. First Niagara weathered the recession well and they
pay a 4% dividend. The only major problem I have with FNFG is the fact that
they have a sizable amount of debt on their balance sheet but like I said, this
is a pretty good takeover play and they pay a nice dividend while you wait.
Another regional bank I would recommend for 2011 is East West Bancorp (EWBC).The message I am trying to get
across is that you should always have a list of desired stocks that you would
like to pick up when a pullback occurs. Regardless, it is always important to
do your homework on a stock to understand if that stock fits your investing
style.
The best way to profit in the stock
market is always being prepared for the inevitable. A correction is coming;
stocks are just too expensive right now after the huge rally we have had. It is
time to take some profits and wait patiently for a pullback and pick up some
great names at a cheaper price…’
Market
Crash on 1/31/11? Technical
indicators suggest market collapse may begin by January 31st
Is
This a Major Market Top? [ Truth be told, there was a time when I read
Barron’s with great regularity (no more). I never missed Alan Abelson’s
incisively sharp wit and the market laboratory, the latter being supplanted by
readily accessible numerical data on the web. I also don’t recall Alan Abelson
ever being wrong and I don’t think he’s wrong here, particularly when you
consider the costs, fraud, and insanity underlying this manipulated and
inflated stock market which bubble is at best a (contrived) bull cycle in a
secular bear market. ] Roche ‘With economic recovery still in doubt and
sentiment readings at their highest levels since the S&P 500 topped in
2007, some market prognosticators find the latest surge in stocks to have been
irrational. There is now a near universal belief that stocks have but one
direction to go and that has some investors feeling uneasy. This
weekend’s Barron's showed the diametrically opposing views as two of their
leading columnists (Alan Abelson and Mike Santoli) discussed why they believe
this is a major market top (or not).
Abelson refers
to a certain veteran market technician (whom he doesn’t identify):
And he shares our concern about the epidemic of optimism
that has gripped the Street, manifest in any number of wildly bullish forecasts
for the market in 2011. It is the kind of explosive optimism that is usually
witnessed, he says more in wonder than rue, at market tops, either temporary or
something worse.
He doesn’t buy the argument that the huge stash of
cash supposedly sitting on the sidelines is a guarantee of a steady source of
fuel for the equity rally. Rather, he calls that hefty pile of cash, which is
being augmented by a fresh infusion from fixed-income investors now that bonds
are getting clocked, “scared money.” It belongs, he elaborates, to folks who
all this time have been leery of committing their dough to stocks but, thanks
to December’s quantum leap in share prices, have grown increasingly fearful of
missing the next leg up, and are itching to put all that scratch to work.
That such nervous-newbie equity buyers will stay the
course and step up their buying after the initial, inevitable correction is
hardly a given. Our bet is that they would jackrabbit out at the first hint of
trouble.
The peerless technician is also bothered by the
leadership of the end-of-the-year rally. More specifically, the shares of
commodity-related companies are in the vanguard of the advance at a time when
China, the big global buyer of virtually every commodity known to man, is
striving to rein in inflation. It is no accident, he suggests, that Chinese
stock markets have been lagging, and he feels they may prove a pretty good
precursor for our own dear market.
In sum, he sees stocks making at least a temporary
top early in the new year. It’s hard to say, he readily admits, just how bad or
enduring a setback equities will suffer. But obviously, he’s talking something
more substantial than a flickering decline or a tiny crack.
Santoli’s case against a major market top has been
more commonly discussed:
The reasons the bulls are bullish are also pretty
universally agreed upon. The industrial economy has gathered some momentum, the
emerging markets are surging, companies are flush, profits look set to rise
decently again, the Federal Reserve is seeking new ways to penalize risk
aversion, taxes won’t go up and the market tends to do well in the year after a
midterm election.
And we can add to the list the likelihood that another
financial-engineering cycle is just getting into gear, so expect lots of
equity-friendly refinancings by stretched companies, re-leveraging by cash-rich
ones and buyouts hither and yon.
The thing is, it’s all pretty much true. And because
of that, and given that stock valuations are not excessive, it’s tough to think
a likely pullback or worse would signal some major top.
Indeed, the happy feeling and the recent climb in
margin borrowing and drop in short interest, by one way of looking at them, simply
show that what has been a bull market for the better part of two years is
finally being viewed as one. The last time we had such a run of investor
optimism, indeed, was late 2004, before a calm but not terribly exuberant year.
The risk, then, is more about the near term, about
expectations of ease meeting some unforeseen complication early this year, and
that what’s likely to be a firm fundamental and technical case for riskier
financial assets in 2011 has, to a fair degree, been priced in by the market
lift of late 2010.
Interestingly, both appear to agree that the major
risk is in the near-term. Santoli, however, clearly believes any sell-off will
prove to be a buying opportunity. Abelson tends to still be in the bear market
camp. Major market top or a prelude to a continuation of the bull market? Only
time will tell.
Source: Barron's’
January Barometer - As January Goes,
so Goes the Year? , On Monday
January 3, 2011, 6:40 pm EST Did you know that there are two seasonal
patterns with an accuracy ratio of 90% or higher? This is no joke. The numbers
don't lie, but there is one caveat.The January Barometer has a 90% rate of
success. The essence of the January Barometer is simple, as January goes, so
goes the year. If January is up, the entire year will be up and vice versa.
90% Accuracy - Too Good to be True?
From
1950 to 2008 this pattern has played out most of the time. There were only five
times when it outright failed and seven times when it wasn't exactly accurate.
According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, the Barometer has a 90% accuracy
ratio. In terms of odds, that's about as good as it gets.However, the January
Barometer led investors in the wrong direction in 2001 when the S&P was
down a full 13% at the end of the year after being up 3.5% in January. Again,
there was a major misfire in 2003 when the S&P finished with a 26.4% gain
after a 2.7% January loss.There was a minor misfire in 2005, but the Barometer
couldn't have been more wrong in 2009 and 2010. In 2009 the S&P was down 8.6%
in January but ended the year with a 23.5% gain. After a 3.9% January
loss last year, the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) finished with a 12.6% gain.It seems
like the January Barometer has lost its mojo. In fact, five hits and five
misses bring the last decade's success rate down to 50%, in line with random
odds.
A New January Pattern
Every
January is different, but over the past three years a new pattern has emerged.
Christmas euphoria is followed by a New Year hangover. Let's see what the
numbers say.On December 24, 2007 I was invited to share my 2008 outlook with
CNBC's Maria Bartiromo. At the time, the major indexes had just recovered some
of their initial October/November losses and the percentage of bullish advisors
polled by Investors Intelligence was 54.9%, very close to last week's 55.6%.My
advice then was to employ strategies that benefit from a topping market.
On December 24, 2007, the DJIA (DJI: ^DJI) closed at 13,549, the S&P (SNP:
^GSPC) at 1,496, the Nasdaq 100 (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) at 2,128, and the Russell 2000
(NYSEArca: IWM - News)
at 794.Stocks (NYSEArca: VTI - News)
suffered from topping action throughout 2008 before delivering a year-end
rally. In fact, the 2008 Santa Claus Rally delivered the highest return in
decades, 7.4% for the S&P.On December 14, 2008, I cautioned via the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter: 'Optimistic sentiment, which should be more visible
above Dow 9,000, will give way to further declines. These should draw the
indexes close to or below their November 21st lows of 7,445 for the Dow and 740
for the S&P.' Early January 2008 the DJIA poked above 9,000 three times
before shedding 29%.2009/2010 was not much different than the previous two
years. On December 17, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter stated: 'The days
leading up to and following Christmas tend to have a bullish bias for stocks.
Nevertheless, bearish forces are becoming more pronounced and stocks are facing
stiff resistance at Dow 10,500 and S&P 1,120.' That stiff resistance led to
a swift 9% correction.The chart below illustrates the pattern of December
rallies followed by January sell offs. Of course this new pattern might
disappear as fast as it appears, but my analysis shows that January 2011 will
follow in the footsteps of the three previous Januaries. [chart]
Looking Beyond January
Let's
say we get the expected January correction, then what?We would be in a pickle
because according to the long-term track record of the January Barometer,
stocks should continue weak throughout the year while according to the
Presidential Election Year Cycle stocks should be up.The third year of the Presidential
Election Year Cycle (such as 2011) is historically the strongest of the
four-year cycle. This may sound like a too good to be true statistic, but there
hasn't been a major loss in a pre-election year since 1931.In an effort to get
re-elected, each administration is working overtime the year before elections
to buoy whatever there is to buoy in order to create a setting that's conducive
to winning as many re-election votes as possible.
A Premature Pop?
Courtesy
of the 2008 financial meltdown, the administration and the Fed were forced to
open the money spigot earlier than during the average Presidential cycle. Does
that mean that the stock market has peaked pre-maturely? We don't know yet, but
based on current sentiment readings it's a possibility that shouldn't be
ignored.
Correction and Pop Protection
Since
the market's internals today are similar to what we saw leading up to the April
2010 high and the previous three January highs, it isn't a far stretch to
expect a similar outcome - a swift and largely surprising decline between 9 -
29%.The S&P hasn't reached our upside target level yet, so it's best to let
the current rally do its thing. Once reversal levels are reached, the
proverbial air pocket that's been supporting this creeping up trend is likely
to bust and result in a downward jolt.Momentum is a fickle force. Just as
momentum has carried stocks higher than expected, it may drive prices lower
than any of the ueber-bullish Wall Street analysts expect.
Eliminating Variables
The
big question is whether the Federal Reserve and Wall Street banks (NYSEArca: XLF
- News)
can manage and control any sell off. It surely seems like they were able to do
so in January and April of 2010. However, they were powerless throughout 2008
and had to watch the market swallow up fellow competitors.It's no secret that
my personal outlook is fundamentally bearish, but with the influx of QE2
liquidity and the bullish bias of the Presidential Election Year Cycle, it's
prudent to listen to the market's vital signs.The ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter continuously monitors the market's breadth in connection with
important support and resistance levels. Any trend change from up to down is
most likely to occur against resistance. Once a reversal is in place, it's
vital to watch how the market performs at support levels of various degrees.The
ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
outlines the next major resistance level along with support levels the market
has established over the past weeks, months and years. Nothing expedites
momentum like a break below support. We all know what momentum can do.’
A Look at Base Metals: Dave's Daily ‘A FEW BULLS CHARGE OUT OF THE GATE It was an impressive ramp to
start 2011 wasn't it? Inside the numbers there was again little volume. Markets
are now much overbought and this low volume is worrisome as a cascade of heavy
volume will no doubt appear from the sell-side as long as this continues. There
was another round of POMO
(nearly $8 billion) Monday to start the year which helps trading desks
facilitate what the Fed wants -- higher stock prices. Of course the story
making the biggest splash was Goldman
Sachs wanting a piece of Facebook which would push the value of the company
to $50 billion. Also, BAC settled some outstanding issues with FNM to the tune
of $2 billion. Taken together this pushed the financial sector higher. Most
economic news Monday like ISM Data was generally as expected, but higher prices
in Europe spilled over early to New York. Most bulls believe a growing economy
is in the works which should lead to better earnings and stock prices. That's
the story, and bulls are sticking to it. The Interior
Department will allow some deepwater drilling to resume oddly coincided
with some selling in commodity markets, especially precious metals. But, the
dollar was also somewhat stronger which would usually cause a decline…’
Preparing for the
Financial Crisis The crisis in the US and world financial markets give us
reason to make preparations for the foreseeable problems ahead.
Treasury
Department shifts its stake in Ally Financial (Washington Post) [ Oooooh!
Sounds like a plan (with only those tiny pikers fannie and freddy to follow) …
till the next debacle … which will be coming soon to a theater near you …
Tipping Point: 25 Signs That The Coming Financial Collapse Is Now Closer Then Ever The financial collapse that so many of us have been anticipating is seemingly closer then ever. Over the past several weeks, there have been a host of ominous signs for the U.S. economy… ] Decision could make it easier for the bailed-out lender to launch an IPO and repay its government debt.
Pakistan's
top general vexes U.S. plans (Washington Post) [ Geeh! How dare that PAKISTAN General not jump on the war criminal
american crazy train by putting the interests of his nation ahead of u.s.
contrived interests and preventing Pakistan from being turned into a toxic
wasteland, killing fields, etc., as in Iraq, Afghanistan, etc.. ] Despite intense efforts, officials fail
to persuade Gen. Ashfaq Kayani to undertake the administration's strategy of
eliminating Taliban havens inside Pakistan.
Pay
Attention to New Year Market Indicators [ The problem with these anecdotal,
mechanized (and sophomoric) technical guidelines is that the frauds on wall
street are well aware of them and with the current computer technology can
easily program to meet them with the fraudulent hope they’ll become self-fulfilling.
I disagree with the ‘everything coming up roses, green shoots and all’
scenarios being painted in typical self-interested fashion and hardly
objective. Even near perma-bull John Augustine (speaking with Motek) looks for
at a minimum, if things go well for the economy (not at all likely and no can
do with real numbers / data) a 3-5% pullback / correction near term. Keep in
mind all stock prices have been inflated by amounts exceeding the gains, viz.,
13-17% by the debased dollar which of course is reflected in huge price
increases for commodities across the board which will impact margins or
consumption or both going forward. ] Plessis ‘If Santa has not yet made his way
to your investment portfolio, don’t despair. According to Jeffrey Hirsch (Stock Trader’s Almanac),
the “Santa Claus Rally” normally occurs during the last five trading days of a
year and the ensuing first two trading sessions of the new year. During this
seven-day period stocks historically tend to advance (by 1.5% on average since
1950), but when recording a loss, they frequently trade much lower in the new
year.With four of the seven sessions behind us there has been little in it,
with the S&P 500 Index marginally up by 0.09% and the Dow Jones Industrial
Average losing 0.03%.Another old stock market saw tells us the first five
trading days of January sets the course for January (known as the “First Five
Days Early Warning System”), and if the month of January is higher, there is a
good chance the year will end higher, i.e. the so-called “January Barometer”.
Every down January since 1950 has been followed by a new or continuing bear
market or a flat year. “As January goes, so goes the year,” said Hirsch.Lastly,
according to Hirsch, the “December Low Indicator" says that should
the Dow Jones Industrial Index close below its December low anytime during the
first quarter, it is frequently an excellent warning sign of lower levels
ahead. The numbers to watch are those recorded on December 1: 1,206.07 for the
S&P 500 Index and 11,255.78 for the Dow Industrial Average.The American
benchmark indices will have to crash today in order to make 2010 a down year.
Early indications therefore point to the January Barometer (with January having
been a down month) this year failing investors. Looking ahead to 2011, time
will tell whether the year-end/new-year indicators play out according to the
historical pattern. Meanwhile, we’ll have some fun tracking how it pans out.’
Happy
New Year! Here Are The Final Numbers For 2010 , On Friday December 31, 2010
‘Indices mixed
today, but not for the year. Stocks weren't the real winner, however, with
commodity prices booming.
First, today's
scoreboard:
Now, the final scoreboard for 2010:
Equities:
Check out the best and worst performing global equity indices
in 2010 >
Commodities:
Check
out Societe Generale's guide to commodities in 2011 >
Bonds:
Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Broad Market
Index rose 4.7% this year.
Drudgereport: Medicare
Bound to Bust 'by 2017' as First Boomers Hit 65...
POLL:
Only 21% Want FCC to Regulate Internet...
Fear of Political Agenda...
Next
Year's Wars: 16 brewing conflicts to watch...
VIDEO:
Oil Could Push to $110...
Berlin
sees most snow in December since 1900s...
White
House Plans to Push 'Global Warming' Policy, GOP Vows Fight...
FLASHBACK:
Gore Reports Snow and Ice Across World Vanishing Quickly...
Top
China blogger forced to shut down magazine...
Non-US
banks gain from Fed crisis fund; Half of emergency credit facility cash went to
foreign institutions...
Backlash...
THE
MAN WHO TOOK ON BIG SIS... Pilot angered TSA with video... ‘…News10 established a relationship with the Liu
family last July after their rental home in Sacramento's Oak Park was destroyed
by an arsonist. Four firefighters were injured when the house exploded…’
Oil
rises near $92...
Ex-SHELL
president sees $5 gas in year...
MATTHEWS:
Why Doesn't Obama Just Release The Birth Certificate?
NYT:
Bundle Up, It's Global Warming...
Obama
Reading List: Book on Reagan... [ Reagan would absolutely detest,
hate (yes, Reagan could hate ) wobama
and did detest, hate people like failed president like no other in history,
wobama]
Duma
Disses Obama, delays START vote...
Assange
fears death in a US jail...
OPEC
Members 'Target $100'...
China,
following pervasively corrupt, meaningfully lawless, defacto bankrupt american
example, bars political dissident access to lawyers...
Indefinite
detention possible for suspects at Guantanamo Bay...
DARK SIDE OF SIS: AGENTS RAID HOME OF PILOT CRITICAL OF TSA...
Posted Video Exposing Airport Security Flaws...
PUNISHED...
DEFICIT
HITS RECORD...
MINORITY
REPORT: Spielberg advising on rebranding Dems... [ Come on! You
can’t unring the bell on the damage they’ve done by particularly doing the
opposite of what they said, from perpetual war, to no prosecutions of the wall
street frauds now marked to anything as per criminal courtesy via FASB rule
change, etc.. They b*** s*** like their mascot, ‘wobama the b’ (for b*** s***);
not that the republicans are substantially different … they’re incompetent,
corrupt, etc... They’ve embraced the ‘history of decline and fall of
nation-states’. ]
TODAY:
Obama pledges 'singular focus' on economy...
ONE
YEAR AGO: 'Obama to focus hard on economy'...
TWO
YEARS AGO: Obama to put 'renewed focus' on economy...
US
press should fear being targeted: Assange...
BLOWOUT:
Government liabilities rose $2 trillion for year...
PEOPLE:
308,745,538
DEBT:
$13,868,461,000,000
STATE
OF THE NATION: Census shows slowing US growth...
GOP-leaning
states pick up seats in Congress...
NY, OH, IL, MA, NJ and PA lose seats...
FCC
Gives Government Power to Regulate Web...
Agency
splits along party lines...
DeMint
vows to reverse 'Internet takeover'...
AP:
TOP 10 STORIES OF 2010...
MOODY'S
May Cut US Rating on Tax Package...
New
spending bill totals $1.1 TRILLION!
Congress
Job Approval Rating Worst in GALLUP History...
FLASHBACK:
Obama Promised 5-Day, Public Review of Bills Before Signing; Signs Tax Bill
Within Hours of House Vote...
13 million get unexpected tax bill from 'tax credit'?
Pelosi
skips vote on tax bill, then shuns signing ceremony...
House
votes to extend gov't funding -- through Tuesday...
OBAMA
FALLS TO 40% APPROVE IN FOXNEWS POLL...
The FCC's Threat to Internet Freedom...
Dems
play politics with 'net neutrality' vote...
'Sweeping
new rules'...
REGULATE...
SHUT:
Music Web Sites Dispute Legality of Their Closing...
UK
ministers threaten: Censor web, or we will legislate 'to protect children'...
Plan
to block all online porn...
Hugo
Chavez defends plan for web regulations...
Venezuela
tightens Internet regulation...
THEY'RE
COMING FOR THE INTERNET!
JULIUS
SEIZURE
$2
trillion debt crisis threatens to bring down 100 US cities...
States
face $140 billion in budget shortfalls...
32
states borrow billions from feds to cover unemployment benefits...
Friedman:
America the Stupid...
French
AAA Grade at Risk as Downgrades Sweep Europe...
Oil Heads
Toward $100...
Chavez
defends plan for Internet regulations...
UK
ministers threaten: Censor web, or we will legislate 'to protect children'...
The
FCC's Threat to Internet Freedom...
Dems
play politics with 'net neutrality' vote...
'Sweeping
new rules for the Internet'...
SKorea
detains Chinese fishermen...
Security
Council meets on tensions...
North
Threatens More Attacks...
...
says war would go nuclear
China
warns of escalating arms race...
'Don't ask' repeal moves toward law...
DREAM OVER: Senate Blocks Bill for Illegal Immigrants...
Budget
Brawl Looms in Congress...
Michelle
wears $2,500 purchased dress to Christmas concert...
Senate
Plans Weekend Votes on 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell,' Amnesty Bill...
Senator:
Gay ban tied to Russia treaty...
UN
PLANS INTERNET REGULATION [ Those
who can’t do … work at the u.n., in the u.s.; after all, for the first time in
human history, the internet has for the most part enabled an unfettered look at
the truth and truthful reasons for the unequivocally sad state of the world.
That a supposed world body should support and potentially facilitate the
encroachment upon such global communication is reason enough to dismantle such
an already discredited body which arbitrarily seeks enforcement of some
‘resolutions’ as to some but not others ( ie., israel, u.n. resolutions 242,
338, etc., israeli and american war crimes, etc..) Raison d’tre … I don’t think
so! Quite the contrary! ]
Regulators
close banks in GA, FL, AR, MN... [ Regulators shutter 3 small banks in Ga., 1 each in
Fla., Ark., Minn.; 157 banks closed in 2010 ]
Payrolls Drop in 28 States, Joblessness Rises in 21...
Nevada rate to 14.3%...
Rhode Island City Nears Bankruptcy...
Ireland Debt Downgrade...
IMF chief worried about Europe domino effect...
Senate
clerks preparing to read 1,924-page spending bill on floor -- for 50 hours!...
Senator:
'There's No Way' To Read Entire Bill Before Vote...
KERRY:
'Why Would We Have To Read Something?'
McConnell
offers 1-page resolution in place of 1,924-page spending bill...
SHOWDOWN:
Gingrich Urges Fillibuster...
Biden
To GOP Opposition: 'Get Out Of The Way'...
Reid:
Earmarks are 'what we're supposed to do'...
Ban on Gitmo transfers vanishes...
Omnibus
bill loaded with goodies for abortion industry...
PRIORITIES:
House approves bill to make hybrids louder...
23%
Say USA Heading in Right Direction, Lowest Since Obama Took Office...
POLL:
Just 29% think Obama will be re-elected...
Is
America the sick man of the globe?
BUCHANAN:
Is this our America anymore?
UK
Red Cross Bans Christmas to Avoid Offending Muslims...
SALVATION
ARMY bell ringer caught stealing from kettle...
Deputies
suspended after getting into brawl at party...
2
women charged with robbing 74-year-old...
Hundreds
of gifts for kids stolen from 'Toys for Tots'...
Thousands
of dollars in donated toys ruined after skunk attack...
Grocery
prices grow by 1.5 times inflation rate...
Socialist
president plays host to capitalism...
REPORT:
Obama told lawmakers not passing tax deal could end presidency...
A
$48 billion earmark...
PAPER:
Year of bullying, bluff and bailouts leaves euro fighting for its life...
Reeling
from riots, Italy faces uncertainty...
Greek
anti-austerity strike turns violent...
VIDEO...
MORE
UNREST: 2011...
$575
million PER PAGE...
6,488
earmarks...
McConnell
fumes: 'No one has seen it'...
Reid threatens to keep Congress into next year...
Intelligence
Reports Offer Dim Views of Afghan War...
HOLBROOKE
LAST WORDS: STOP THIS WAR!
UPDATE:
RUSSIA TO USE CHINA CURRENCY IN TRADES...
UK
GRANTS ASSANGE BAIL; SWEDEN APPEALS...
Release
delayed...
Lawyer:
Secret Grand Jury Meeting Outside Washington on Leak...
CHRISTMAS CRIMES: Drive-By
Purse Snatcher Terrorizing Women In NJ...
2
women charged with robbing 74-year-old...
Hundreds
of gifts for kids stolen from 'Toys for Tots'...
Thousands
of dollars in donated toys ruined after skunk attack...
Copper
thieves burn down city's Christmas tree...
Burglar
steals family's gifts -- and its dog!
Grave
robbers steal 400 urns from cemetery...
'Grinch'
Steals Packages Off Doorsteps, Signs For Deliveries...
Home
Invaders Tie Up 12-Year-Old Boy, Take Video Games...
90-Year-Old
Man Put In Choke-Hold, Robbed Of $370...
'Tea
Party' anger simmers over backroom deal; Ramps up efforts...
2
Bank Failures Bring Year's Tally To 151...
COPS: Madoff's son hangs himself with dog collar in SoHo
apartment...
...gave mechanic $400 tip day before suicide
Madoff
Trustee Launches $19.6 Billion Lawsuit; 60 accused of participating in 'illegal
scheme'...
Pump
prices close in on average $3 a gallon...
FLASHBACK:
$1.81 when Obama took office...
BLOW
TO O: JUDGE RULES GOV'T CAN'T MANDATE CITIZENS BUY HEALTH CARE...
Cantor:
Direct Appeal to Supremes...
POLL:
Support For Obamacare Hits New Low...
Pelosi:
'Are You Serious?'
Obama: 'I'm itching for a fight'...
U
N C O N S T I T U T I O N A L
Barbara
Walters: 'This Guy (wobama) Has an Emotional Problem' [ Yes, it’s true,
babawawa … wobama has substantial mental problems which along with inherent
criminality are pervasive in america which also includes boner, and where were
you in discussing such, babawawa regarding psychopaths bush, clinton, etc., or
even former beau, senile greenspun ]...
DEFICIT
HITS RECORD...
Putin Slams West for Assange Arrest...
US
cable: Cuba to be insolvent within 2-3 years...
Assange
Lawyers Prepare for U.S. Spying Indictment...
Teen
Arrested in Hack Attacks...
Donations
to WIKILEAKS are Tax Deductible -- in Germany...
Anonymous
cyberwarriors stun experts...
Media
outlets may be probed over WikiLeaks stories, joe ‘zelig zionist incompetent
and corrupt‘ lieberman in Campaign To Trample The First Amendment claims Can the US government prosecute media outlets
that reported on the WikiLeaks cables? According to joe ‘zelig zionist
incompetent and corrupt‘ lieberman in
his Campaign To Trample The First Amendment, the answer is maybe.
Home
Values May Drop by $1.7 Trillion This Year...
UNEMPLOYMENT
WEEK: DOWN TO 421,000; REVISED UP LAST WEEK 438,000...
POLL:
Most Americans Say They’re Worse Off Under Obama...
F
O [Related: Olbermann:
Obama Is ‘God Damned Wrong’ ]
REVENGE
OF THE WIKIS!
Army
of hackers targets the Swedish government...
Take down
MASTERCARD site...
...VISA
PAYPAL...
AMAZON
braces for hactivist attack...
Palin
under cyber attack...
Assange's
'poison pill' file impossible to stop...
MOSCOW:
Give Assange Nobel Peace Prize...
SENATE REJECTS REPEAL OF DON'T ASK DON'T TELL...
House
Dems push through massive budget bill...
Final
House Race Decided; GOP Net Gain: 63 Seats...
Ron
Paul, Author of 'End the Fed,' to Lead Fed Oversight Panel...
Student
protesters in London turn violent over tuition hikes...
Thousands
try to break through police barricades at Houses of Parliament...
...attack car containing Prince Charles, Camilla...
Rolls
Royce hit with paint; rear window smashed...
US Treasuries hit by biggest sell-off since
LEHMAN...
Prices Plunge for 2nd Day on Deficit Fears...
Rattles investors...
Oil tipped to bubble over $100 barrel...
Food Stamp Rolls Continue to Rise...
SHOCK POLL: Americans Believe China Has Surpassed USA
in Economic Strength...
'U.S. fiscal health worse than Europe's'...
Sorkin: Palin TV show is 'snuff movie'... [ Yeah … ‘she’s really all that’ and worse …
I have great difficulty getting past the fact that she’s so incredibly dumb …
not just ‘nonintellectual’ … butt really dumb! ] ‘… Sorkin, writer of the recent Facebook movie The
Social Network, also accused the Fox News contributor of making a "snuff
film" after the latest episode of Sarah's Palin's Alaska featured the
politician going hunting with her father and shooting a caribou. He described
Palin as "deranged", a "witless bully" and a "phony
pioneer girl". He also said The Learning Channel, the US cable network,
"should be ashamed of itself" for broadcasting her "truly awful
reality show"…’
Senate convicts Clinton-appointed judge...
[ Come on! One way or another they’re almost all getting bribed; including the
initial lifetime appointment as alito, trump-barry, etc.. Abolish the
corrupt, costly, economically wasteful lifetime extravagantly appointed federal
courts (see RICO case http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) End those lifetime licenses to steel. ] In earlier hearings, two attorneys who once worked
with Porteous had testified that they gave him thousands of dollars in cash,
including about $2,000 stuffed in an envelope in 1999, just before Porteous
decided a major civil case in their client's favor.
Assange could face espionage trial in USA...
Palin under cyber attack...
1st Amendment issues...
Assange's 'poison pill' file impossible to stop...
WIKILEAKS: Stop Us? You'll Have to Shut Down Web...
Berkeley 'resolution' honoring leaker...
Scientologists outraged over spoof Christmas play... [ Hubbard was such a total fraud!
Scientologists are delusional! ]St. Petersburg, Florida – ‘A controversial holiday musical production is
set to open at American Stage Theatre in St. Petersburg. Photos:
Pictures of
A Very Merry Unauthorized Children's Scientology Pageant "A
Very Merry Unauthorized Children's Scientology Pageant" is a musical play
designed for the holiday season, but this play will not focus on Jesus Christ,
but instead the story is about L. Ron Hubbard, the founder of the church Of
Scientology…’
NO BAIL...
Assange
'sabotaged condom' during one night stand...
Refused to wear one during another...
Stockholm police: Both women are victims...
INTERPOL WARRANT FOR NOT WEARING PROTECTION?
ASSANGE
UNDER ARREST:
'HE
DIDN'T WEAR A CONDOM'
Under
arrest, will Assange dump the Doomsday Files?
Assange:
Don't shoot messenger for revealing uncomfortable truths...
FLASHBACK:
HILLARY COMPLAINS GOVERNMENTS BLOCK FREE FLOW OF INFO ON INTERNET...
WIKILEAKS:
LIVE UPDATES...
FCC
push to regulate news draws fire...
Lieberman:
NYT may have committed crime by printing WIKILEAKS docs...
US
to Host World Press Freedom Day in 2011 … [ What a total travesty! The u.s. as
host … What a cruel joke! ] ...
OBAMA
RACES TO CUT TAXES BEFORE REPUBLICANS: 6.2% Social Security tax would drop to
4.2% for workers for one year... MORE
THE
NEW OBAMA!
SURPRISE TAX CUT
MOVE [ As with defacto bankrupt america
generally, more defacto bankrupt social security system, etc., are distinctions without significant
differences. ]
OIL
HITS $89...
Pump
prices hit 2-year high...
Schwarzenegger Declares Fiscal Emergency, Proposes $9.9 Billion In
Cuts...
Top
Democrats defect, join unified GOP...
WIKILEAKS'
Assange Will Release Encrypted Files If Arrested...
Cables
Reveal How US Manipulated Climate Accord...
Cable:
China Leaders Ordered Hacking on GOOGLE...
Meddling
by Neighbors Adds to Iraq's Woes...
Government
Workers Ordered Not to Read Cables...
Gingrich:
Leaks Show Admin 'Shallow,' 'Amateurish'...
McConnell:
Assange a 'High-Tech Terrorist'...
List of facilities 'vital to US security' leaked...
Mirror
Sites Appear by the Hundreds...
Assange
Speaks...
Hillary
Jokes...
US
forced to shake up embassies around world...
THE
DOOMSDAY FILES
PAPER:
Wave goodbye to Internet freedom...
[ I’m absolutely astounded that the world is not profoundly grateful to Assange
et als for providing insight into the machinations and insanity of pervasively
corrupt, defacto bankrupt america, et als who wreaked havoc on the world as
they pillage, plunder, and destroy (lives, nations, etc.). ]
+39,000
JOBS IN NOVEMBER...
BOEHNER: Dem Leaders Should Stop Wasting Time on Tax
Hike Votes...
HALPERIN: Dems 'In Midst of Nervous Breakdown'...
Obama Makes Surprise Trip to Afghanistan...
Flies 7,000 miles -- talks to Karzai for 15 minutes on
phone!
Forgets the Coast Guard...
Leaves Biden behind to handle 'disappointing' jobs
report...
Reid, funded by casinos, pushes online gambling...
ABCNEWS accused of breaking embargo...
2010
death toll of US troops nears that of 2001-2008 combined...
OBAMA SPEECHWRITER JOKES ABOUT TSA GROPING: Allows
'defrocked priests to give back to society'...
US
Deficit-Cutting Plan Falls Short of Needed Votes...
UNEMPLOYMENT UP TO 9.8%
HILLARY: Secretary of State will be 'my last public
position'... ... PITCHE$ $IGNED DVD ON HOME $HOPPING NETWORK..
US TO BAILOUT EU
[ Riiiiight! Sounds like a plan! After all, in defacto bankrupt america money
does grow on trees … derivatively (pun intended) that is … you know … that ever
more worthless fiat paper currency … and ultimately, existentially,
philosophically, doesn’t paper come from trees … sure it does …so, no problemo
since money grows on trees. ]
BOMBSHELL: European banks took big slice of
Fed aid...
Hundreds of billions of dollars...
Fed reveals global extent of its backing...
]Funds went to stalwarts of
American industry including GE and Caterpillar and household-name companies
such as Verizon, new data show.
GEORGIA: HUNDREDS LINE UP IN COLD FOR HEAT HELP...
Assistance Funds Quickly Depleted...
'Almost like being in soup line during great
depression'...
VIDEO...
DELAYING TAX VOTE COULD 'CRASH
STOCK MARKET' STARTING 12/15 [ Come on! There’s no way to justify
the tax cut to the top 1% including the frauds on wall street … their threats
don’t hunt no more … the nation’s defacto bankrupt … see Davis, supra! ]
Chase Bank orders branch to remove Christmas tree...
Cyber attack forces WIKILEAKS to change web address...
Respected media outlets collaborate with
organization... [ Said
outlets and other disseminators and of course Wikileaks deserve accolades for
the advancement of first amendment liberties in the name of an informed global
body politick for all.]
UPDATE: Latest developments...
Foreign contractors hired Afghan 'dancing boys'...
Embassy cables portray Karzai as corrupt, erratic...
CIA drew up UN spying wishlist...
Assange speaks...
UPDATE: Latest WIKILEAKS developments...
Foreign contractors hired Afghan 'dancing boys'...
Embassy cables portray Karzai as corrupt, erratic...
CIA drew up UN spying wishlist...
SANTA CLAUSE: FED AID WENT TO COMPANIES, BANKS,
OFFSHORE...
SECRETLY BAILED OUT GE -- GE NEWS OUTLETS FAILED TO
REVEAL IN FED COVERAGE...
SANTA
CLAUSE: FORD, BMW, TOYOTA Took Secret Government Money......
Fed Created Conflicts in Improvising Financial System
Rescue...
Tax Breaks for Bailout Recipients Spark Debate...
MORE SECRETS: Fed Withholds Data for $885 Billion in
Loans...
RUSSIA TO HOST '18 WORLD CUP FINALS...
Qatar selected '22 host over USA, others...
'AMERICAN
PSYCHO' musical in works... [ I recommend the derivative films,
American Psycho and American Psycho 2,
for insight! ]
National Board of Review: SOCIAL NETWORK named best
film... [ National board of what? ‘Inception’ is by
far and away the ‘Best Film’ across the board, in all categories, and on the
list! ] LIST...
BANK OF AMERICA Becoming 'Bank of Asia' as
Revenue Increases 30% ...
RESET: PUTIN CRITICIZES USA OVER WIKILEAKS … [ Putin
deserves the greatest deference in matters of global concern in light of his
greater rationality; america’s self-serving accusations are merely envy and
projection / displacement (in psychoanalytic terms) of america’s pervasively
corrupt, criminal, broken system which is a far cry in reality from defacto
bankrupt america’s propaganda.]...
REWARD: [ The payoff. Bribe complete! Next bribe
scenario … ] CITI to Hire Obama's Ex-Budget Chief Orszag...
FLASHBACK: Rubin and friends ride NY-DC shuttle...
ZUCKERMAN: Watching America's Decline and Fall [the moral authority of the West has
dramatically declined in the face of the financial crisis. It has revealed deep
fault lines within Western economies that have spread to the global economy. The majority of Western governments
are running fiscal deficits of 10 percent or more relative to
GDP, but it is increasingly clear that there will be no quick fixes, that big
government and fiscal deficits will not bring us back to the status quo ante.
Indeed, the tidal wave of red ink has meant that the leverage-led or
debt-led growth model is dead. Developed countries will be forced to deal with
their debt on every level, from the personal to the corporate to the sovereign.
Being able to borrow may have made people feel richer, but having to repay the
debt is certainly making them feel poorer, particularly since the unfunded
liabilities that many governments face from aging populations will have to be
paid for by a shrinking band of workers. (Ecoutez, mes amis!) Demography is destiny. As a result, there is a
burgeoning consensus that we are witnessing an inevitable rise of the East and
a decline of the West…( Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012). ) ]...
Interpol issues wanted notice for Julian
Assange [ They just can’t take the truth! ] ...
US cuts access to files [ Think about it. Really think
about it. Their policies are in the tank, along with the nation and the rest of
this world as a consequence. Don’t those so detrimentally affected (everyone)
have a right to know? I think in light of the global frauds, contrived
perpetual wars though defacto bankruptcy of this and other nations, pervasive
corruption and crime, failed policies domestically and geo-politically while
serving the very parochial interests of the self-interested few, the answer is
an unequivocal, YES! I believe that world history will write Mr. Assange as a
hero in the truest sense. He should be given a medal; and, certainly, since mr.
b*** s*** wobama undeservingly got a ‘nobel peace prize’ (what he does, not
what he says, ie., Afghanistan, etc.), who more than Julian Assange is
deserving of that and more? Cover-up / propaganda … thy name is fallen
america.]...
WIKILECTURE: 'HILLARY SHOULD
RESIGN' ‘…Hillary Clinton, Julian Assange said, "should resign."
Speaking over Skype from an undisclosed location on Tuesday, the WikiLeaks
founder was replying to a question by TIME managing editor Richard Stengel over
the diplomatic-cable dump that Assange's organization loosed on the world this
past weekend. Stengel had said the U.S. Secretary of State was looking like
"the fall guy" in the ensuing controversy, and had asked whether her
firing or resignation was an outcome that Assange wanted. "I don't think
it would make much of a difference either way," Assange said. "But
she should resign if it can be shown that she was responsible for ordering U.S.
diplomatic figures to engage in espionage in the United Nations, in violation
of the international covenants to which the U.S. has signed up. Yes, she should
resign over that."…’
CITY ON EDGE: Cash-Strapped Newark, new jersey Forced
To Lay Off 14% Of Police Force... [ From decades old
(1978-1985) direct personal experience with newark, n.j., the police are the
absolute last cuts that can be afforded to be made. Indeed, while walking
through Military Park (a sliver of a “park” - more a pedestrian
thoroughfare/cement walks) in newark, new jersey on the way to the bank during
lunch hour, I heard the clearly audible screams/cries of what turned out to be
an old lady on the ground with blood streaming from her mouth. I ran toward the
sound of the cries, the source of which I could not see because there were so
many people in and about this thoroughfare so as to block any vision of the
source of the cries. When I came to the woman, on the ground, blood streaming
from her mouth, I asked what happened, to which she responded she had been hit
in the mouth and knocked to the ground, her purse stolen/put inside her
shopping bag, and she pointed out the criminal casually now walking across the
main street. Nobody stopped to help her, many having passed her by. I slammed
the thug to the ground so hard that, in light of all the blood and confusion
(limbic system / adrenalin flow) I thought I had been stabbed (the blood was
from his elbows hitting the pavement so hard - no one helped / a crowd gathered
/ an undercover cop happened along). When I testified at the Grand Jury
Proceeding I made sure his threat on my life was set forth in prima facie
fashion so as to maximize the DA’s position with both felonies ( he went to
prison – pled out ). The other case I wrote about here ( This was included on
my website in the Psychology forum discussion of ‘bystander effect’ / diffusion
of responsibility. ) - Having had occasion to have run down a mugger in newark,
n.j. who apparently had followed a girl from the bank on her way to the bursar
to pay tuition, though in pretty good shape, I was astounded by how totally
exhausting such a pursuit was, how much like rubber my arms were when I traded
punches with the perpetrator, and truth be told, if I had a flashlight on my belt,
I have little doubt that I would have probably used it to subdue the perp. The
girl was not that seriously injured, did get her pocketbook and tuition back,
and the criminal went to jail. The other thing about such a pursuit that
amazed me was that no one else assisted the girl or me despite being in a
position to do so). (Other newark / new jersey and new york, n.y. metro, viz.,
ie., connecticut, and of course, d.c., d.c. metro, viz., ie., virginia
experience … corrupt federal judges as maryanne trump barry, sam alito, shiff,
matz (california), hall, underhill, dorsey, etc.. Defacto bankrupt america’s
so-called system is pervasively corrupt and broken (AP) Abolish the corrupt, costly, economically
wasteful lifetime extravagantly appointed federal courts - see RICO case http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) ]
Nation's '2nd Most Dangerous City' (camden, new
jersey) To Lay Off Nearly Half Of Police Force...
Chicagoland: Vandals torch Christmas charity van...
Businessman
gets harsh prison term (Washington Post) [ Come on! Quality of justice
concerns by pervasively corrupt / defacto bankrupt america (I’ve seen this
first hand and have sworn under penalty of perjury to the readily discernible
corruption in the ‘so-called judicial process’ / american illegal system; and
Orwellian britain / european illegal systems little better as toadies to the
criminal americans)? Don’t make me laugh? The u.s. illegal system is a cruel
joke! What parallel universe / fantasy land are they living in? ] A Moscow judge's decision to impose the
harshest possible penalty on Russian oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky signaled
that Prime Minister Vladimir Putin intends to keep a firm grip on power and is
unwilling to bend to American and European concerns about the quality of
Russian justice.
October 15, 2010 (*see infra)
Steven M. Martinez, Assistant Director In Charge
Federal Bureau of Investigation, USDOJ
11000 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 1700
Los Angeles, CA 90024
Dear Sir:
I enclose herewith 3
copies of the within DVD rom autorun disk (which will open in your computer’s
browser) as per your office’s request as made this day (the disk and contents
have been scanned by Avast, McAfee, and Norton which I’ve installed on my
computer to prevent viral attacks / infection and are without threat). I also include
1 copy of the DVD as filed with the subject court as referenced therein (which
files are also included on the aforesaid 3 disks in a separate folder named
‘112208opocoan’). The (civil) RICO action (as you’re aware, the RICO Act is a
criminal statute which provides a civil remedy, including treble damages and
attorney fees, as an incentive for private prosecution of said claims probably
owing to the fact that the USDOJ seems somewhat overwhelmed and in need of such
assistance given the seriousness and prevalence of said violations of law which
have a corrupting influence on the process, and which corruption is pervasive).
A grievance complaint against Coan was also filed concurrently with the subject
action and held in abeyance pending resolution of the action which was
illegally dismissed without any supporting law and in contravention of the
Order of The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge, USDC, District
Connecticut. The files below the horizontal rule are the referenced documents
as filed. (Owing to the damage to the financial interests of both the U.S. and
the District of Congresswoman Roybal-Allard, viz., Los Angeles, the
Qui Tam provisions of the Federal
False Claims Act probably would apply and I would absent resolution seek to
refer the within to a firm with expertise in that area of the law with which I
am not familiar).
The document in 5 pages under penalty of
perjury I was asked to forward to the FBI office in New Haven is probably the
best and most concise summary of the case
RICO Summary to FBI Under Penalty
of Perjury at Their Request (5 pages) [
ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://albertpeia.com/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf ].
The correspondence I
received from the Congresswoman by way of email attachment (apparent but
typical problem with my mail) along with my response thereto is included on the
3 disks as fbicorrespondencereyes.htm . With regard to the
calls to the FBI’s LA and New Haven, CT offices: There was one call to the LA
office and I was referred to the Long Beach, CA office where I personally met
with FBI Agent Jeff Hayes to whom I gave probative evidentiary documents of the
money laundering which he confirmed as indicative of same (he was transferred
from said office within approximately a month of said meeting and his location
was not disclosed to me upon inquiry). The matter was assigned to FBI Agent Ron
Barndollar and we remained in touch for in excess of a decade until he abruptly
retired (our last conversation prior to his retirement related to the case and
parenthetically, Rudy Giuliani whose father I stated had been an enforcer for
the mob to which he registered disbelief and requested I prove it, which I did
– he served 12 years in prison, aggravated assault/manslaughter? – and no,
there is no Chinese wall of separation – Andrew Maloney’s the one that
prosecuted gotti).
In contradistinction
to the statement in said correspondence, there is a plethora of information
including evidence supporting the claims set forth in the RICO VERIFIED COMPLAINT (see infra). Such includes and as set
forth in the case, inter alia,
There is applicable insurance / surety coverage and neither LA, nor
creditors, nor I should continue to have been damaged by this brazened corrupt
and illegal scenario, which should be resolved in accordance with the
meaningful rules of law apposite thereto.
Sincerely,
Albert L. Peia
611 E. 5th Street, #404
Los Angeles, CA 90013
(213) 219-**** (cell phone)
(213) 622-3745 (listed land line but there are unresolved problems with
the line, computer connection may be the reason but I hesitate to chance
greater non-performance / worsening by their ‘fix’ so cell phone best for
contact).
----------
*The foregoing and as
indicated therein was previously send 9-14-10 but delivery confirmation was
flawed as set forth below and my inquiries to the u.s. postal service rebuffed
(I believe tampered with inasmuch as your office could not locate same). This
cover letter (9-13-10) is on the 3 disks with navigable hyperlinks to the
subject files for ease of reference, including the files in the RICO action as
indicated. (10-15-10) I spoke with Rose, FBI, ADIC Secretary, who indicates
once again that your office has not received the aforesaid and which can
reasonably be presumed to have been tampered with, and hence, a violation of
the federal statute concerning same. ]
-----
Former
president convicted of rape (Washington Post) [ Between the orgies, war crimes, assassinations, etc., what a
bunch of sick perverts, criminals the israeli operatives / powers that be and
their friends are; see, ie., Victor Ostrovsky Mossad
ebook download in PDF format September: Victor Ostrovsky, a former Mossad
trainee, publishes his book By Way of Deception ... Israel's Mossad has regularly
faked Australian passports for its. spies,
… 1 http://khup.com/keyword/victor-ostrovsky-mossad-by-way-of-deception.html 2 http://khup.com/keyword/page-2/victor-ostrovsky-mossad-by-way-of-deception.html 3 http://khup.com/keyword/page-3/victor-ostrovsky-mossad-by-way-of-deception.html ]
An Israeli court finds former president Moshe Katsav guilty of rape,
indecent assault and sexual harassment of female subordinates, the most serious
conviction of a former top official in Israel's history
Economic
forecasters see growth in 2011 (Washington Post) [ Growth indeed … in the deficits that is …
and in insurmountable fashion at that … which masks / obfuscates in the
short-term the weakness and structural shift in the worst economic terms imaginable
while benefiting the self-interested few (ie., frauds on wall street, war
profiteers, the ‘already campaigning for the next election’ pols, etc.. The
trade-off is far from commensurate.
The Economic Collapse
Dec 17, 2010
The financial
collapse that so many of us have been anticipating is seemingly closer then
ever. Over the past several weeks, there have been a host of ominous
signs for the U.S. economy. Yields on U.S. Treasuries have moved up
rapidly and Moody’s is publicly warning that it may have to cut the rating on
U.S. government debt soon. Mortgage rates are also moving up
aggressively. The euro and the U.S. dollar both look incredibly
shaky. Jobs continue to be shipped out of the United States at a
blistering pace as our politicians stand by and do nothing. Confidence in
U.S. government debt around the globe continues to decline. State and
local governments that are drowning in debt across the United States are
savagely cutting back on even essential social services and are coming up with
increasingly “creative” ways of getting more money out of all of us.
Meanwhile, tremor after tremor continues to strike the world financial
system. So does this mean that we have almost reached a tipping
point? Is the world on the verge of a major financial collapse?
Let’s hope
not, but with each passing week the financial news just seems to get eve
worse. Not only is U.S. government debt spinning wildly toward a breaking
point, but many U.S. states (such as California) are in such horrific financial
condition that they are beginning to resemble banana republics.
But it is not
just the United States that is in trouble. Nightmarish debt problems in
Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Belgium and several other European
nations threaten to crash the euro at any time. In fact, many economists
are now openly debating which will collapse first – the euro or the U.S.
dollar.
Sadly, this is
the inevitable result of constructing a global financial system on debt. All
debt bubbles eventually collapse. Currently we are living in the biggest
debt bubble in the history of the world, and when this one bursts it is going
to be a disaster of truly historic proportions.
So will we
reach a tipping point soon? Well, the following are 25 signs that the
financial collapse is rapidly getting closer….
#1 The official U.S. unemployment rate has not been
beneath 9 percent since
April 2009.
#2 According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there are
currently 6.3
million vacant homes in the United States that are either for sale or for
rent.
#3 It is being projected that the U.S. trade deficit
with China could hit 270 billion dollars
for the entire year of 2010.
#4 Back in 2000, 7.2 percent of blue collar workers
were either unemployed or underemployed. Today that figure is up
to 19.5 percent.
#5 The Chinese government has accumulated approximately
$2.65 trillion in
total foreign exchange reserves. They have drained this wealth from the
economies of other nations (such as the United States) and instead of
reinvesting all of it they are just sitting on much of it. This is
creating tremendous imbalances in the global economy.
#6 Since the year 2000, we have lost 10% of our middle class jobs. In the
year 2000 there were approximately 72 million middle class jobs in the United
States but today there are only about 65 million middle class jobs.
#7 The United States now employs about the same number
of people in manufacturing as
it did back in 1940. Considering the fact that we had 132 million
people living in this country in 1940 and that we have well over 300 million
people living in this country today, that is a very sobering statistic.
#8 According to CoreLogic, U.S. housing prices have now
declined for
three months in a row.
#9 The average rate on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage soared
11 basis points just this past week. As mortgage rates continue to
push higher it is going to make it even more difficult for American families to
afford homes.
#10 22.5 percent of all residential mortgages in the
United States were in negative equity as of the end of the third quarter
of 2010.
#11 The U.S. monetary base has
more than doubled since the beginning of the most recent recession.
#12 U.S. Treasury yields have been rising steadily
during the 4th quarter of 2010 and
recently hit a six-month high.
#13 Incoming governor Jerry Brown is scrambling to find
$29 billion more to cut from the California state budget. The
following quote from Brown about the desperate condition of California
state finances is not going to do much to inspire confidence in California’s
financial situation around the globe….
“We’ve been living in fantasy land. It is much worse
than I thought. I’m shocked.”
#14
24.3
percent of the residents of El Centro, California are currently unemployed.
#15
The average home in Merced, California has declined in value by
63 percent over the past four years.
#16
Detroit Mayor Dave Bing has come up with a new way to save money. He
wants to cut 20
percent of Detroit off from essential social services such as road repairs,
police patrols, functioning street lights and garbage collection.
#17
The second most dangerous city in the United States – Camden, New Jersey – is
about to lay off about
half its police in a desperate attempt to save money.
#18
In 2010, 55
percent of Americans between the ages of 60 and 64 were in the labor
market. Ten years ago, that number was just 47 percent. More older
Americans than ever find that they have to keep working just to survive.
#19
Back in 1998, the United States had 25 percent of the world’s high-tech export
market and China had just 10 percent. Ten years later, the United States had
less than 15 percent and China’s share had soared to 20 percent.
#20
The U.S. government budget deficit increased to a whopping $150.4 billion last
month, which represented the biggest November budget deficit on record.
#21
The U.S. government is somehow going to have to roll over existing debt and
finance new debt that
is equivalent to 27.8 percent of GDP in 2011.
#22
The United States had been the leading consumer of energy on the globe for
about 100 years, but this past summer China took over the number one spot.
#23
According to an absolutely stunning new poll, 40 percent of all U.S. doctors plan to bail out of the
profession over the next three years.
#24
As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had been
unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over
6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.
#25
All over the United States, local governments have begun instituting “police
response fees”. For example, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has come up
with a plan under which a
fee of $365 would be charged if police are called to respond to an
automobile accident where no injuries are involved. If there are injuries
as a result of the crash that is going to cost extra.
Timid
Tuesday: Is it Safe? Davis
‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are
simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of
global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form
of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh)
is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut
$100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while
continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1%
each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool
all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT
THERE! ‘
5
More Themes for 2011 Suttmeir ‘5 themes for 2011 (6 more are on their way):
Tracking the US Capital Markets – US stocks are overvalued fundamentally and overbought
technically on both daily and weekly charts. The snow storm causes stocks
to drift lower and higher.
Here are my remaining themes for 2011 – Six through
Eleven (a continuation
of 1-5)
6.
QE2, the $600 billion program where the Federal Reserve buys long dated US
Treasury Securities has been a failure so far. The yield on the 10-Year was 2.334 when Fed Chief
Bernanke touted QE2 in October only to see the yield nearly 125 basis points
higher in December. The primary intent of QE2 was to lower longer-dated US
Treasury yields. Yields held this week’s value level at 3.494 again on
Wednesday. There is risk to 3.75 to 4.25 in 2011, but with or without this
weakness, the 10-Year yield will decline to 2.75 to 2.50 during 2011.
7.
Comex Gold has gone parabolic, and therefore you cannot predict how high gold
prices can climb. I do know that
corrections will be fierce and painful for those that buy strength instead of
weakness. The 2011 neutral zone is between $1350 and $1450.
8.
Nymex Crude Oil is headed back above $100 per barrel according to most experts.
I cannot rule that out for 2011, but
the downside is more significant given weekly closes below the $87 per barrel
area. If gasoline stays above $3.00 per gallon demand on Main Street will slow
down and will be a drag on economic growth and job creation.
9.
Problems among the PIIGS nations denominated in euros will trump problems at
the state level in the USA. This
will keep the euro versus the dollar in a trading range. We will begin
2011 with a quarterly pivot around 1.3150.
10.
US stocks show strong technical characteristics. The S&P 500 is above the 61.8% Fibonacci
Retracement of the decline from October 2007 to the low of March 2009 at
1228.74. Dow Theory had a Buy Signal in early November and another confirmation
in December. The Dow Industrial Average – I project downside to 9,375 in
the first half with a rebound to 11,500 in the second half. Strength above
11,500 will return to 11,500, and the 2011 close will be at or below 11,500.
11.ValuEngine.com
indicates that equity fundamental are not cheap. Fifteen of sixteen sectors will begin 2011 overvalued
according to ValuEngine. The normal range for the percent undervalued or
overvalued stocks is 35% to 65%. We will begin 2011 close to the low end of the
range for undervalued stocks and towards the high end for overvalued stocks. Because
of the battle between the technicals and fundamentals, stocks will be
reversal-oriented in 2011 and be little changed year over year.
Tracking
the US Capital Markets – US stocks
are overvalued fundamentally and overbought technically on both daily and
weekly charts.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate
any positions within the next 72 hours.’
Struggling to the Finish Line: Dave's Daily ‘Most
economic news today (Jobless Claims, Chicago PMI and Home Sales) was, ahem,
"better than expected"; still, that didn't spark any determined
buying. Maybe without any POMO Thursday trading desks were running on empty.
2010 was an interesting year with lots of erratic behavior but a Fed
"stick save" in the end. Flash Crashes, elections, tax issues,
spending, unemployment, POMO and home prices were all center stage. Now you're
probably expecting some sort of forecast from your humble pundit, but alas, all
I can offer are three basic tenets to follow:
"The
best laid schemes of mice and men go often askew."
-- Robert
Burns
Or, if you
prefer: "The best laid plans of mice and men often go awry"
-- John
Steinbeck
"If
you must forecast, forecast often."
--Economist
Edgar Fiedler (ETF Digest Sacred Cow IX)
"Things
change"
-- ETF Digest
Sacred Cow X
You were
expecting Dow 20,000?!?
Volume
Thursday did improve a tad and breadth was flat… ‘
8 Contrarian Signs Against a 2011 Rally: My Thoughts Mansell ‘Recently my grandfather sent me an article from DailyFinance.com. The article was
listing 8 contrarian signs to suggest a stall in the current rally in
2011…Check out the article for more information on each of the points and links
to charts and etc. I just list them below and my opinions on each.
1)
Industrial production and capacity utilization have both stalled: This is a
fair argument and one that merits some consideration. My only comment would be
that just because it is slowing down does not necessarily bode poorly for the
economy (though "growth" may slow). It is my understanding that much
of the growth in the industrial production was in companies rebuilding
inventories that they depleted during the height of the recession. It should be
obvious that it would turn down at some point but I am curious to know if the
recent downturn has more than accounted for the loss of restocking inventories
in the equation.
2)
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has been in a downtrend since June: The BDI is down
because people the world over are worried about oversupply within the dry bulk
sector. This is also why a lot of the stocks within that sector trade at single
digit P/Es. My argument, though, is that low rates due to oversupply doesn't
suggest anything about the overall global economy and its recovery; it is just
the mismanagement of assets by industry executives.If we are making the
argument that the price being lower to ship goods is bad; here is an argument
for gradually raising rates.The way people are determining the oversupply is by
looking at outstanding orders; however, in 2010 around 50% of orders weren't
delivered due to cancellations by the companies who ordered them. I imagine a
similar number will occur in 2011 (source, slides 6 and 7). Also, I have read an
interview with an industry executive that suggests they have yet to see a
slowdown in demand, even with the increased number of ships AND the attempts of
China's government to slow its growth. The Chinese economy is still 10% larger
than it was last year, has grown substantially this year, and I think that
growth has taken out a large amount of the expected slack within the shipping
industry. India and other emerging markets are also supposed to be doing pretty
well, suggesting further demand there.Also, 21% of the current fleet (of
Panamax vessels) are over the age of 20 years old. I do not know what the
average scrap rate is for a panamax vessel but I know that currently there are
non that appear to be over 35 and few that fall into the 30-35 range. This
suggests that over the next 10 years we'll see the scrapping of 1 out of every
5 of the current fleet. While this clearly won't help short term rates, it does
suggest that oversupply won't last long and will begin improving over the next
five years or so.
3)
Interest rates are rising: Some have actually hailed the Fed's QE2
program as a success based on this; clearly investors are expecting more
inflation which is why rates are rising and this inflation expectation started
largely after the Fed began that program. However, I was never a fan of this
program and I don't know how inflation is supposed to help the 10% of people
who are unemployed who find their savings eaten away by rising prices AND
necessary living expenses.
4)
Oil and gasoline have risen to levels that some analysts see as negative for
growth: This makes sense; however, I do not know much about this. I
know gas prices were much higher while the economy was stalling in 2008, but we
didn't have the unemployment we have now and the economy WAS stalling so it
would be hard to know the effect of high gasoline prices. I think we've all
noticed its quick rise, though, and it will lead to less disposable income.
5) Property taxes and other state/local taxes are rising: I don't know the absolute amount of
dollars for each but I know that Congress cut the social security tax for
working individuals over the next year which should help them make up some of
these rising costs. Also, consumers have been deleveraging and are spending
less disposable income on credit, which means that this shouldn't be too
entirely unbearable but will weigh on consumer spending nonetheless.
6)
Retail investors are shunning the U.S. stocks: This to me suggests
that it is a time to buy. Especially since companies have the most cash on
balance sheets than they have had since the 1950s. As soon as the economy turns
around they'll produce returns on that cash or invest it abroad and earn those
returns now. Either way, you're currently getting more safety in cash, with
greater growth potential, for cheaper prices than available before and this is
bad because....?Also, aren't retail investors notorious for being wrong? There
are investment strategies based entirely around doing the exact opposite of retail
investors; while this doesn't mean we should dismiss their actions or
automatically do the opposite, I do think we should consider how much weight
we're placing on retail investors' behavior.
7)
Margin debt is at the highest levels since September 2008:
Very true, but as #6 says there are fewer dollars from investors in the market,
so this affects few individuals at very large levels and doesn't appear to be
pandemic for all US households.
8)
Investor sentiment remains at extremely high levels: What investors?
Money has been leaving the equity markets since 2008, as suggested in #6, and
we've seen net outflows in equity markets even during the "recovery".
So investors are saying they're excited about stocks while pulling money out of
equity markets and putting it into bond markets, gold, and other investments? I
think I'd rather follow the truth in people's actions as opposed to following
their words. I don't think investor sentiment is REALLY that
high if they are investing in other assets as opposed to stocks.Lastly, I'm
really disappointed that this article didn't mention the ONE greatest threat
that I believe is currently inflicting the American economy and that is the
continuous struggle in housing. Don't get me wrong, I'm currently investing in
REITs, but I think housing is far from the bottom and that in 2011 and 2012
we'll see further atrophy in home prices.New single home sales have fallen back
to 283,000 in October 2010, which is a little lower than the 300k -320k that we
were seeing at the beginning of 2000 and a far cry from the near 600,000 we saw
at the peak; however, even though these numbers have normalized, other factors
have not.In 2000, 300k homes for sale represented about 4 months of supply
which is normal. The 283,000 number we've seen, while lower than the 300k in
2000, represents 8+ months of inventory currently. On top of this, we have
waves of foreclosures that are hitting the market further exacerbating the
problem. I think it's safe to say that we probably have over a year's worth of
housing inventory that will be available for sale over the next year AND
interest rates are rising, making it more expensive to own. The only thing that
can give a little to rebalance the equation is home prices.On top of all of
this, in 2011 and 2012 we'll start to see another wave of ARMs resetting. I do
not believe that we'll see a pandemic of foreclosures because people are unable
to afford the switch that we saw in 2008 and 2009, but I do think we'll see a
lot of foreclosures because people won't want to pay that much for houses that
are worth 25%-30% less than what they were when the agreed to the ARM. In fact,
the scenario of people living free in their homes for a year or more has become
a relatively common occurrence even now as they realize that foreclosures are
so backed up that they can live rent free for some time. I imagine that raising
interest rates will only make more people decided that it's better to default
now on the higher rates and rent or purchase a less expensive home....In the short
term, this could cause massive damage to the economy. Over the long term, it
allows for greater deleveraging and a normalization of the housing industry as
opposed to dragging this recovery out over a much longer period of time.Another
downturn in the housing industry, which I think is likely even as the rest of
the economy recovers, will likely be what makes 2011 and 2012 bleak.The only
solutions for making this situation better, faster, include: creating jobs,
speeding up the foreclosures process to get houses off the market and to
prevent voluntary default, coming up with effective ways to allow homeowners to
modify/refinance, and letting this monster run its course. Between the years
2000 and 2006, we more than doubled the amount of money in mortgages
outstanding in the US. That is incredible when you consider that mortgages are
15-30 year maturities yet we doubled the amount in 6 YEARS! It's going to take
the better part of a decade for us to recover from this and housing will be in
trouble for awhile…’
Baby
Boomers Start To Turn 65: 16 Statistics About The Coming Retirement Crisis That
Will Drop Your Jaw The American Dream | The moment when
the first Baby Boomers reach retirement age has arrived. ‘ … The following are
16 statistics about the coming retirement crisis that will drop your jaw…..
#1 Beginning January 1st, 2011 every single day more
than 10,000 Baby Boomers will reach the age of 65. That is going to keep
happening every single day for the next 19 years.
#2 According to one recent survey, 36 percent of
Americans say that they don’t
contribute anything at all to retirement savings.
#3 Most Baby Boomers do not have a traditional pension
plan because they have been going out of style over the past 30 years.
Just consider the following quote from Time
Magazine: The traditional pension plan is disappearing. In 1980, some
39 percent of private-sector workers had a pension that guaranteed a steady
payout during retirement. Today that number stands closer to 15 percent,
according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute in Washington, D.C.
#4 Over 30 percent of U.S. investors currently in their
sixties have more than 80
percent of their 401k invested in equities. So what happens if the
stock market crashes again?
#5 35%
of Americans already over the age of 65 rely almost entirely on
Social Security payments alone.
#6 According to another recent survey, 24%
of U.S. workers admit that they
have postponed their planned retirement age at least
once during the past year.
#7 Approximately
3 out of 4 Americans start claiming Social Security benefits the moment
they are eligible at age 62. Most are doing this out of necessity.
However, by claiming Social Security early they get locked in at a much lower
amount than if they would have waited.
#8 Pension consultant Girard Miller recently told
California’s Little Hoover Commission that state and local government bodies in
the state of California have $325
billion in combined unfunded pension liabilities. When you break that
down, it comes to $22,000 for every single working adult in California.
#9 According to a recent report from Stanford
University, California’s three biggest pension funds are as much as $500
billion short of meeting future retiree benefit obligations.
#10
It has been reported that the $33.7 billion Illinois Teachers
Retirement System is
61% underfunded and is on the verge of complete collapse.
#11 Robert Novy-Marx of the
University of Chicago and Joshua D. Rauh of Northwestern’s Kellogg School of
Management recently calculated the combined pension liability for all 50
U.S. states. What they found was that the 50 states are collectively
facing $5.17 trillion in pension obligations, but they only
have $1.94 trillion set aside in state pension funds. That is a
difference of 3.2
trillion dollars. So where in the world is all of that extra money
going to come from? Most of the states are already completely broke and
on the verge of bankruptcy.
#12
According to the Congressional Budget Office, the Social Security system will pay
out more in benefits than it receives in payroll taxes in 2010. That
was not supposed to happen until at least 2016. Sadly, in the years
ahead these “Social Security deficits” are scheduled to become absolutely
horrific as hordes of Baby Boomers start to retire.
#13
In 1950, each retiree’s Social Security benefit was paid for by 16
U.S. workers. In 2010, each retiree’s Social Security benefit
is paid for by approximately 3.3 U.S. workers. By 2025, it is
projected that
there will be approximately two U.S. workers for each retiree. How in
the world can the system possibly continue to function properly with numbers
like that?
#14
According to a
recent U.S. government report, soaring interest costs on
the U.S. national debt plus rapidly escalating spending on
entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare will absorb
approximately 92 cents of every single dollar of federal revenue by the
year 2019. That is before a single dollar is spent on anything
else.
#15
After analyzing Congressional Budget Office data, Boston University economics
professor Laurence J. Kotlikoff concluded that the U.S. government is facing a “fiscal
gap” of $202 trillion dollars. A big chunk of that is made up of
future obligations to Social Security and Medicare recipients.
#16
According to a recent AARP survey of Baby Boomers, 40
percent of them plan to work “until they drop”.
Companies all over America have been dropping their
pension plans in anticipation of the time when the Baby Boomers would
retire. 401k programs were supposed to be part of the answer, but if the
stock market crashes again, it is absolutely going to devastate the Baby
Boomers.
State and local governments are scrambling to find
ways to pay out all the benefits that they have been promising. Many
state and local governments will be forced into some very hard choices by the
hordes of Baby Boomers that will now be retiring.
Of course whenever a big financial crisis comes along
these days everyone looks to the federal government to fix the problem.
But the truth is that after fixing crisis after crisis the federal government
is flat broke …’
Constitution's
new starring role in House (Washington Post) [ Riiiiight!…Whew! That was a close one…we can all
rest easy now…and to think we were thinkin’ they were goin’ in the wrong
direction and sinkin’…for those skeptics who hail this as yet another desperate
and redundant gimmick … have no fear, the new congress is here. ]
‘…They will read the Constitution aloud…’
Roubini:
‘Housing Prices Can Only Move Down’ According to economist Nouriel Roubini,
the housing market is in a double dip. And negative Case-Shiller Home Price
numbers out today only confirm that unpleasant truth.
Housing
market forecast (Washington Post) Expert says
"house prices probably have another 20% to fall." And that may be a
"conservative estimate.’
The 10 Most Important Tax Tips Of 2010 Posted by Investopedia
It’s the end of the year, and while holiday baking may be top of mind, that
niggling little task of getting the year-end tax tasks done is still there,
bothering you over the scent of the fruitcake in the oven. The
following tips will give you some specifics so you can take care of taxes,
and then get back to your fun holiday activities.
IN
PICTURES: Top 10
Solutions For A Big Tax Bill
IN PICTURES: 6
Tax Credits That Anyone Can Claim
The Bottom Line
With taxes, you don’t know until you ask. You may be able to save much more
than you think you can just by making a few simple changes, or by paying for
expenses in December instead of January, February or March. It’s a little bit
of forethought that can make the tax bill much more bearable.
For the latest financial news, see Water
Cooler Finance: FBI Insider-Trading Bust.’
Army
edits its history of deadly battle of Wanat (Washington
Post) [ Come on! Does anyone really think they ever get a true story from the
u.s. gov’t et als about anything at all?
] Draft put majority of blame on top commanders, but final version's
focuses on lower-level leaders sparks anger among families of those killed.
A subtler tack to fight Afghan corruption?
(Washington Post) [ How
about a not so subtler tack to fight corruption starting right here in the u.s.
of a. where corruption and crime are pervasive and in fact, at the root of the
Afghanistan problems, from american reinvigorated heroin trade to bribery
attendant thereto to killing civilians, etc..
Defacto
Bankrupt, Meaningfully Lawless, War Criminal Nation america, the leader of
nations … in crime:
Though having but 5% of the world’s population, america can
boast 76% of the world’s serial killers, followed by Europe with England/UK
then Germany leading the way for the eu [excerpt, 6 minute video, Serial
Killers: Real Life Hannibal Lechters http://www.albertpeia.com/realifeamericaserialkillers.mpg (as is consistent with crime generally,
see infra)]. Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive
(defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of
the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern
emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed
employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in
this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense
( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
) ]:
Rank |
|||
# 1 |
11,877,218 |
|
|
# 2 |
6,523,706 |
|
|
# 3 |
6,507,394 |
|
… ]
Wall
Street Is Laundering Drug Money And Getting Away With It Zach
Carter, … etc. … Drudgereport:
CLASSIFIED
NO MORE: USA RACES TO LIMIT WIKILEAKS DAMAGE
[Publishing the Wikileaks is the right thing to do; after all, one
cannot possibly look to even one rationally correct strategy, domestically,
globally, geopolitically that would justify continued hiding/cover-up of the
failed strategies, their genesis, flawed rationale, etc., which has cost this
nation and the world dearly] ...
WIKILEAKS:
We've been hit with 'mass distributed denial of service attack'...
MOST
EMBARRASSING, DAMAGING DISCLOSURE IN DECADES...
SENATORS:
PROSECUTE THE LEAKERS!
NYT
EXPLAINS: THE DECISION TO PUBLISH … [The NYT clearly did the right thing to
publish; after all, one cannot possibly look to even one rationally correct
strategy, domestically, globally, geopolitically that would justify continued
hiding/cover-up of the failed strategies, their genesis, flawed rationale,
etc., which has cost this nation and the world dearly]...
SKorea
says sound of artillery heard on island...
US,
SKorea start major naval drills...
China
issues warning...
DHS
SEIZES DOMAIN NAMES...
EU
Debt Crisis Escalates...
6
American soldiers killed in Afghanistan...
Next Debt
Crisis 'May Start in Washington'...
WIKILEAKS
TURNS ON OBAMA! … [ Like who hasn’t, and for good reason! Publishing
the Wikileaks is the right thing to do; after all, one cannot possibly look to
even one rationally correct strategy, domestically, globally, geopolitically
that would justify continued hiding/cover-up of the failed strategies, their
genesis, flawed rationale, etc., which has cost this nation and the world
dearly] ]
] Authorities are
investigating whether Julian Assange violated criminal laws, including possible
charges under the Espionage Act, sources say. Afghanistan: Gates: Progress has
'exceeded my expectations' (Post, December 8, 2010; 5:53 PM)
U.S. hurting peace chances by giving up on
israeli settlement freeze, analysts say (Post,
December 8, 2010; 11:00 PM)
In South Korea, Joint Chiefs chairman scolds
China for its 'tacit approval' of North's aggression (Post,
December 8, 2010; 11:01 PM)
Iran talks end with little sign of progress
(Post, December 8, 2010; 1:04 AM)
Rice, on 'The View,' defends Obama on
WikiLeaks (Post, December 8, 2010; 1:00 AM) (Washington Post) [ The problems in all these regions
are inextricably tied to the nation with insurmountable problems of its own and
own making. That nation quite obviously
is pervasively corrupt, meaningfully lawless, defacto bankrupt america (along
with such comparable enablers / allies as zionist israel, nato, etc.. How can
anyone believe anything they say, least of all gates who hails from
C(ottage)I(ndustries of)A(merica) based on lies, chaos, and conflict.]
Army
edits its history of deadly battle of Wanat (Washington
Post) [ Come on! Does anyone really think they ever get a true story from the
u.s. gov’t et als about anything at all?
] Draft put majority of blame on top commanders, but final version's
focuses on lower-level leaders sparks anger among families of those killed.
A subtler tack to fight Afghan corruption?
(Washington Post) [ How
about a not so subtler tack to fight corruption starting right here in the u.s.
of a. where corruption and crime are pervasive and in fact, at the root of the
Afghanistan problems, from american reinvigorated heroin trade to bribery
attendant thereto to killing civilians, etc..
Defacto
Bankrupt, Meaningfully Lawless, War Criminal Nation america, the leader of
nations … in crime:
Though having but 5% of the world’s population, america can
boast 76% of the world’s serial killers, followed by Europe with England/UK
then Germany leading the way for the eu [excerpt, 6 minute video, Serial
Killers: Real Life Hannibal Lechters http://www.albertpeia.com/realifeamericaserialkillers.mpg (as is consistent with crime generally,
see infra)]. Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive
(defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of
the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern
emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed
employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in
this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense
( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
) ]:
Rank |
|||
# 1 |
11,877,218 |
|
|
# 2 |
6,523,706 |
|
|
# 3 |
6,507,394 |
|
… ]
Wall
Street Is Laundering Drug Money And Getting Away With It Zach
Carter, … etc. … Drudgereport:
CLASSIFIED NO MORE: USA RACES
TO LIMIT WIKILEAKS DAMAGE [Publishing
the Wikileaks is the right thing to do; after all, one cannot possibly look to
even one rationally correct strategy, domestically, globally, geopolitically that
would justify continued hiding/cover-up of the failed strategies, their
genesis, flawed rationale, etc., which has cost this nation and the world
dearly] ...
WIKILEAKS: We've been hit
with 'mass distributed denial of service attack'...
MOST EMBARRASSING, DAMAGING
DISCLOSURE IN DECADES...
SENATORS: PROSECUTE THE
LEAKERS!
NYT EXPLAINS: THE DECISION TO
PUBLISH … [The NYT clearly did the right thing to publish; after all, one
cannot possibly look to even one rationally correct strategy, domestically,
globally, geopolitically that would justify continued hiding/cover-up of the
failed strategies, their genesis, flawed rationale, etc., which has cost this
nation and the world dearly]...
SKorea says sound of
artillery heard on island...
US, SKorea start major naval
drills...
China issues warning...
DHS SEIZES DOMAIN NAMES...
EU Debt Crisis Escalates...
6 American soldiers killed in
Afghanistan...
Next Debt Crisis 'May Start in Washington'...
WIKILEAKS TURNS ON OBAMA!
… [ Like who hasn’t, and for good reason! Publishing the Wikileaks is the right
thing to do; after all, one cannot possibly look to even one rationally correct
strategy, domestically, globally, geopolitically that would justify continued
hiding/cover-up of the failed strategies, their genesis, flawed rationale,
etc., which has cost this nation and the world dearly] ]
] Authorities are
investigating whether Julian Assange violated criminal laws, including possible
charges under the Espionage Act, sources say. Afghanistan: Gates: Progress has
'exceeded my expectations' (Post, December 8, 2010; 5:53 PM)
U.S. hurting peace chances by giving up on
israeli settlement freeze, analysts say (Post,
December 8, 2010; 11:00 PM)
In South Korea, Joint Chiefs chairman scolds
China for its 'tacit approval' of North's aggression (Post,
December 8, 2010; 11:01 PM)
Iran talks end with little sign of progress
(Post, December 8, 2010; 1:04 AM)
Rice, on 'The View,' defends Obama on
WikiLeaks (Post, December 8, 2010; 1:00 AM) (Washington Post) [ The problems in all these regions
are inextricably tied to the nation with insurmountable problems of its own and
own making. That nation quite obviously
is pervasively corrupt, meaningfully lawless, defacto bankrupt america (along
with such comparable enablers / allies as zionist israel, nato, etc.. How can
anyone believe anything they say, least of all gates who hails from
C(ottage)I(ndustries of)A(merica) based on lies, chaos, and conflict.]
5
Economic Themes for 2011 Suttmeier
‘5 themes for 2011 (6 more are on their way):
Tracking the US Capital Markets – US stocks are overvalued fundamentally and overbought
technically on both daily and weekly charts. The snow storm causes stocks
to drift lower and higher.
The Yield on the 10-Year Note (3.345) – Tested this week’s value level at 3.494 with today’s
risky level at 3.306.
Comex Gold ($1384.2) – The 50-day at $1372.1 held at the low on Monday with
this week’s risky level at $1401.2.
Nymex Crude Oil ($90.79) – Reached a new high for the year at $91.88, shy of
this week’s risky level at $93.28. Support is the 21-day simple moving average
at $88.24.
The Euro (1.3163) – My weekly value level is 1.2906 with 200-day simple
moving average at 1.3087 and quarterly pivot at 1.3318, which goes away at the
end of the year.
The Dow Industrial Average (11,555) – Remains extremely overbought on both daily and weekly
charts. The 21-day simple moving average is 11,384 with a daily pivot at 11,569
and this week’s risky level at 11,629.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate
any positions within the next 72 hours.
Market
Crash on 12/31/10? Technical indicators suggest market collapse may
begin by December 31st Why
Stocks Could Collapse...Beginning as Soon as December 31, 2010!
The Fed has propped up the equity markets for
months ... but that could soon come to a
disastrous end! Dennis Slothower is one of the world’s leading technical analysts.
He’s one of the few advisors whose readers completely avoided ALL losses during
the disaster that was 2008. And now he’s issuing another dire warning. His
technical indicators suggest that the market manipulation we’ve seen over the
last several months is about to come to an end…and that means thousands of
investors are about to get clobbered. This correction could begin as soon
as December 31st– so it’s important that you
take action now to prepare yourself. Click on the link below for immediate
access to Dennis Slothower’s latest report, which will explain – in plain
English – just how Dennis saw the collapse of 2008 coming…and how he’ll help
you avoid disaster in the weeks ahead.
http://www.stealthstocksonline.com/reports/FreeReport4StealthStocks.pdf
What's
Coming in 2011? More Gloom, But Not Necessarily Doom Krasting ‘Oh boy, is 2011
going to be an exciting year! Some things that I think might happen:
Have a great year!’
Toasting
the bad economy (Washington Post) [
As indeed the Russians should since they have much to celebrate. Russian
tiger team hails success yahoo
Moscow's
unprecedented military deal (Washington Post) ( France should be praised
inasmuch as a strong Russia, and conversely, a weak perpetual war, war
mongering, war crimes, pervasively corrupt nation, america is optimal for world
peace! ) Russia
is last in series of major powers to seal valuable deals with India (Washington Post) ( Bravo for India … a deal with Russia
is a deal with a future! ) ] Their country still endures the sting of
economic crisis, but Russians plan to drink up this holiday season. Applebaum: The
'decline of the West' (Washington Post) [ It really is true … and, no
leftist sympathizer with his book of the same name, none other than Buchanan
says as much. The reason of course is based on reality. From Orwellian Britain,
to failed nation-state the pervasively corrupt and defacto bankrupt
wobama-bushland america, to perpetual war ‘me-toos’ (ie., nato allies, war
crimes nations israel, u.s., etc.), their frauds (wall street, etc.) protected,
laws meaningless(see RICO
case http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) , their ruthless suppression subtle, hidden,
but odious as never before in their respective histories, the west at best has
become that ‘distinction without significant difference’ and heading to worse
than can be imagined. Of course they’ll lay blame to something other than the
huge frauds / wealth transfers that have plundered the nation. Indeed, one
could even cogently argue that said plundering gave rise to the flawed, failed
communism lie in the first instance. Yet, Russia, a great nation with a rich
history is not a communist nation, did not violently suppress the people as
they shirked that communist yoke / albatross, is not as defacto bankrupt,
meaningfully lawless, pervasively corrupt america engaging in perpetual wars of
destruction to persons and property, and with a great leader of historical
dimension in Putin is a far more rational choice than the bankrupt west on all
levels. As for communist china, it has
truly been a self-defeating, self-destructive creation of the west out of greed
which is in no short supply in the west.
PREVIOUS:
Wikileaks
founder freed on bail (Washington
Post) [ ‘… Moore (correctly) asserts
that Assange
is under attack solely because he had the courage to expose American war
crimes. Moore writes:
We
were taken to war in Iraq on a lie. Hundreds of thousands are now dead. Just
imagine if the men who planned this war crime back in 2002 had had a WikiLeaks
to deal with. They might not have been able to pull it off. The only reason
they thought they could get away with it was because they had a guaranteed
cloak of secrecy....
So
why is WikiLeaks, after performing such an important public service, under such
vicious attack? Because they have outed and embarrassed those who have covered
up the truth…’
CLINTON BODY COUNT
By: Ether Zone
Staff
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored A viral You Tube upload of
one of Alex Jones’ most popular feature films ‘The Obama Deception’ has been
censored following a spur of the moment campaign to elevate the movie’s title
to the top of the major internet search engines. In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
CLINTON BODY COUNT
By: Ether Zone
Staff
Here is the latest body
count that we have. All of these people have been connected with the Clintons
in some form or another. We have not included any deaths that could not be
verified or connected to the Clinton scandals. All deaths are listed
chronologically by date. This list is current and accurate to the best of our
knowledge as of January 13, 1999 August 1, 2000. (see complete list http://albertpeia.com/bodycount.htm )
Susan Coleman: Rumors were circulating in Arkansas of an affair
with Bill Clinton. She was found dead with a gunshot wound to the head at 7 1/2
months pregnant. Death was an apparent suicide.
Kevin Ives & Don Henry: Initial cause of death was reported to be the result
of falling asleep on a railroad track in Arkansas on August 23, 1987. This
ruling was reported by the State medical examiner Fahmy Malak. Later it was
determined that Kevin died from a crushed skull prior to being placed on the
tracks. Don had been stabbed in the back. Rumors indicate that they might have
stumbled upon a Mena drug operation.
Paul Olson: A Federal witness in investigations to drug money
corruption in Chicago politics, Paul had just finished 2 days of FBI interviews
when his plane ride home crashed, killing Paul and 130 others on Sept 8 1994.
The Sept. 15, 1994 Tempe Tribune newspaper reported that the FBI suspected that
a bomb had brought down the airplane.
Calvin Walraven: 24 year on Walraven was a key witness against Jocelyn
Elder's son's drug case. Walraven was found dead in his apartment with a
gunshot wound to the head. Tim Hover, a Little Rock police spokesman says no
foul play is suspected.
Alan G. Whicher: Oversaw Clinton's Secret Service detail. In October 1994
Whicher was transferred to the Secret Service field office in the Murrah
Building in Oklahoma City. Whatever warning was given to the BATF agents in
that building did not reach Alan Whicher, who died in the bomb blast of April
19th 1995.
Ron Brown:. The Commerce Secretary died on April 3, 1996, in an
Air Force jet carrying Brown and 34 others, including 14 business executives on
a trade mission to Croatia, crashed into a mountainside. The Air Force, in a
22-volume report issued in June of 1996, confirmed its initial judgment that
the crash resulted from pilot errors and faulty navigation equipment At the
time of Brown's death, Independent Counsel Daniel Pearson was seeking to
determine whether Brown had engaged in several sham financial transactions with
longtime business partner Nolanda Hill shortly before he became secretary of
commerce.
Charles Meissner: died: UNK - Following Ron Brown's death, John Huang was
placed on a Commerce Department contract that allowed him to retain his
security clearance by Charles Meissner. Shortly thereafter, Meissner died in
the crash of a small plane. He was an Assistant Secretary of Commerce
for International Economic Policy.
Barbara Wise: Wise a 14-year Commerce Department employee found dead and
partially naked in her office following a long weekend. She worked in the same
section as John Huang. Officially, she is said to have died of natural causes.
Mary C. Mahoney: 25, murdered at the Georgetown Starbuck's coffee bar over
the 4th of July '97 weekend. She was a former White House intern who worked
with John Huang. Apparently she knew Monica Lewinsky and her sexual encounters
with Bill Clinton. Although not verified, it has been said that Lewinsky told
Linda Tripp that she did not want to end up like Mahoney.
---------------------------------------------------------
] Gerson: He could have
taken quiet credit for the bipartisan tax deal; he chose otherwise. ]
10 Good Reasons To Be Worried About The Stock Market In
2011 , On Sunday December 26, 2010,
‘This is one of David Rosenberg's best pieces in awhile. In his latest daily
note, the Gluskin-Sheff economist
presents 10 reasons bulls should be worried about the stock market in 2011. And
it's not just that there are all kinds of negative headlines that are being
ignored, or that some economic datapoints aren't so hot, or that there is still
deflation. He makes a great argument that many factors, like the level of
bullishness, the relative valuation of stocks to bonds, and the unanimity in
thinking are worrisome. If anything, the list isn't taking into account
everything we see right now.
7.
BREADTH IS
DETERIORATING "As Bob Farrell is
clearly indicating in his work, momentum and market breadth have been
lacking. The number of stocks in the S&P 500 that are making
52-week highs is declining even though the index continues to make new 52-week
highs. "Source: Gluskin-Sheff
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/10-reasons-to-be-worried-about-the-stock-market-in-2011-2010-12#breadth-is-deteriorating-7#ixzz19G1KZX2Q
8.
VALUATIONS ARE
GETTING RICH "Stocks are overvalued at the present levels. For
December, the Shiller P/E ratio says stocks are now trading at a whopping 22.7
times earnings! In normal economic periods, the Shiller P/E is between 14
and 16 times earnings. Coming out of the bursting of a credit bubble, the
P/E ratio historically is 12. Coming out of a credit bubble of the
magnitude we just had, the P/E should be at single digits." Source: Gluskin-Sheff Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/10-reasons-to-be-worried-about-the-stock-market-in-2011-2010-12#valuations-are-getting-rich-8#ixzz19G23tGaQ
9.
HOUSING
IS STILL A HUGE THREAT "The potential for a significant down-leg in home
prices is being underestimated. The unsold existing inventory is still
80% above the historical norm, at 3.7 million. And that does not include
the ‘shadow’ foreclosed inventory. According to some superb research
conducted by the Dallas Fed, completing the mean-reversion process would entail
a further 23% decline in real home prices from here. In a near zero
percent inflation environment, that is one massive decline in nominal terms.
Prices may not hit their ultimate bottom until some point in 2015. "Read
more: http://www.businessinsider.com/10-reasons-to-be-worried-about-the-stock-market-in-2011-2010-12#housing-is-still-a-huge-threat-9#ixzz19G2O6qNU
10. FISCAL STRAINS POSE A MAJOR THREAT "Arguably the most
understated, yet significant, issue facing both U.S. economy and U.S. markets is
the escalating fiscal strains at the state and local government levels,
particularly those jurisdictions with uncomfortably high pension
liabilities. Have a look at Alabama town shows the cost of neglecting a
pension fund on the front page of the NYT as well as Chapter 9 weighed in
pension woes on page C1 on WSJ." In the absence of Chapter 9
declarations or dramatic federal aid, fixing the fiscal problems at lower
levels of government is very likely going to require some radical restraint,
perhaps even breaking up existing contracts for current retirees and tapping
tax payers for additional revenues. The story has some how become lost in
all the excitement over the New Tax Deal cobbled together between the White
House and the lame duck Congress just a few weeks ago." Source: Gluskin-Sheff
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/10-reasons-to-be-worried-about-the-stock-market-in-2011-2010-12#fiscal-strains-pose-a-major-threat-10#ixzz19G2gqTZP
THE
STOCK MARKET IS A BUBBLE Corson ‘The stock market is not bubbled up, you
say? Well then, let's take a serious macro macro look at the situation and
raise the matter as a question.How is it that from about 1950 (or 1965 at
least) up to about 1985, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stayed mostly in the
range from about 250 to 1200, when America was growing and doing pretty well on
average, and then, from about 1985 to the year 2000 or so -- a mere fifteen
years -- the Dow shot up to over 10,000, when middle class America realized
almost no income gains in real terms and the economy basically cycled from one
boom and bust cycle to the next?I argue we face one of the biggest bubbles of
all time. Let me explain and lets address the problem by focusing on the DJIA.
Here is what the DJIA has done since 1965. click to enlarge images
What
we observe is the DJIA has gone up about ten fold from 1965 to the year 2000 or
so. But what has industrial production in the US done during that time frame?
Industrial
production has increased to be sure, but only by a factor of three or so. It
certainly has not increased anything like the DJIA. But there is slippage, you
say. To be sure, we now generate more services, the time series data have been
smoothed and more importantly changed, etc., etc. But these explanations simply
don't bridge the gap.
Here is another one that doesn't either.
Back in the early-to-mid 1980s macro economists noted
that the risk premium being paid on equities over bonds was far higher than was
warranted by standard measures of individuals’ attitudes towards risk. In
short, the risk premium agents were being paid more than compensated them for
the risk. This was particularly surprising since over the long run, the risk on
equities was no different than that on bonds. As a result, there appeared to be
an arbitrage opportunity by shifting one’s portfolio from bonds to stocks and
holding the equities for a long time.
Do you believe that? We simply had a financial
epiphany and corrected. More importantly, do you want to believe that or
anything except we are bubbled up?As we know, Japan had this problem with its
stock market and here is what happened. But that can't happen here you say. I
ask, why not?
Even GDP and profits have not caught up with this
market. They too have only increased three and a half fold at best.
(The data in these charts are smoothed to conceal
recessions and ease presentation.)Why is it that we don't have a serious bubble
in our stock market now? Were our valuations all wrong for years on end
earlier, or do we have it wrong now? I think we have a problem and our heads
are in the sand… http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/243573-is-the-dow-showing-a-major-stock-market-bubble?source=yahoo
’
9-13-10
Steven M. Martinez, Assistant
Director In Charge
Federal Bureau of Investigation, USDOJ
11000 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 1700
Los Angeles, CA 90024
Dear Sir:
I enclose herewith 3
copies of the within DVD rom autorun disk (which will open in your computer’s
browser) as per your office’s request as made this day (the disk and contents
have been scanned by Avast, McAfee, and Norton which I’ve installed on my
computer to prevent viral attacks / infection and are without threat). I also
include a copy of the DVD as filed with the subject court as referenced therein
(which files are also included on the aforesaid 3 disks in a separate folder
named ‘112208opocoan’)…
The (civil) RICO action (as you’re aware, the
RICO Act is a criminal statute which provides a civil remedy, including treble
damages and attorney fees, as an incentive for private prosecution of said
claims probably owing to the fact that the USDOJ seems somewhat overwhelmed and
in need of such assistance given the seriousness and prevalence of said
violations of law which have a corrupting influence on the process, and which
corruption is pervasive). A grievance complaint against Coan was also filed
concurrently with the subject action and held in abeyance pending resolution of
the action which was illegally dismissed without any supporting law and in
contravention of the Order of The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge,
USDC, District Connecticut. The files below the horizontal rule are the
referenced documents as filed. (Owing to the damage to the financial interests
of both the U.S. and the District of Congresswoman Roybal-Allard, viz., Los
Angeles, the
Qui Tam provisions of the Federal False Claims Act probably would apply
and I would absent resolution seek to refer the within to a firm with expertise
in that area of the law with which I am not familiar).
The
document in 5 pages under penalty of perjury I was asked to forward to the FBI
office in New Haven is probably the best and most concise summary of the
case RICO
Summary to FBI Under Penalty of Perjury at Their Request (5 pages) [ http://albertpeia.com/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf (
http://albertpeia.com/fbiofficela91310 )
].
The correspondence I
received from Congresswoman by way of email attachment (apparent but typical
problem with my mail) along with my response thereto is included on the 3 disks
as fbicorrespondencereyes.htm . With regard to the
calls to the FBI’s LA and New Haven, CT offices: There was one call to the LA
office and I was referred to the Long Beach, CA office where I personally met
with FBI Agent Jeff Hayes to whom I gave probative evidentiary documents of the
money laundering which he confirmed as indicative of same (he was transferred
from said office within approximately a month of said meeting and his location
was not disclosed to me upon inquiry).
The matter was assigned to FBI Agent Ron Barndollar and we remained in
touch for in excess of a decade until he abruptly retired (our last conversation
prior to his retirement related to the case and parenthetically, Rudy Giuliani
whose father I stated had been an enforcer for the mob to which he registered
disbelief and requested I prove it, which I did – he served 12 years in prison,
aggravated assault/manslaughter? – and no, there is no Chinese wall of
separation – Andrew Maloney’s the one that prosecuted gotti).
In contradistinction to
the statement in said correspondence, there is a plethora of information
including evidence supporting the claims set forth in the RICO
VERIFIED COMPLAINT (see infra). Such includes and as set forth
in the case, inter alia,
There
is applicable insurance / surety coverage and neither LA, nor creditors, nor I
should continue to have been damaged by this brazened corrupt and illegal
scenario, which should be resolved in accordance with the meaningful rules of
law apposite thereto.
Sincerely,
Albert
L. Peia
611
E. 5th Street, #404
Los
Angeles, CA 90013
(213)
******** (cell phone)
(213)
622-3745 (listed land line but there are unresolved problems with the line,
computer connection may be the reason but I hesitate to chance greater
non-performance / worsening by their ‘fix’ so cell phone best for contact).
• Audio:
Obama on terrorism tactics
A subtler tack to fight Afghan corruption?
(Washington Post) [ How
about a not so subtler tack to fight corruption starting right here in the u.s.
of a. where corruption and crime are pervasive and in fact, at the root of the
Afghanistan problems, from american reinvigorated heroin trade to bribery
attendant thereto to killing civilians, etc..
Defacto
Bankrupt, Meaningfully Lawless, War Criminal Nation america, the leader of
nations … in crime:
Though having but 5% of the world’s population, america can
boast 76% of the world’s serial killers, followed by Europe with England/UK
then Germany leading the way for the eu [excerpt, 6 minute video, Serial
Killers: Real Life Hannibal Lechters http://www.albertpeia.com/realifeamericaserialkillers.mpg (as is consistent with crime generally,
see infra)]. Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive
(defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of
the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern
emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed
employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in
this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense
( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
) ]:
Rank |
|||
# 1 |
11,877,218 |
|
|
# 2 |
6,523,706 |
|
|
# 3 |
6,507,394 |
|
… ]
]
Airstrike probe finds poor coordination
between Pakistan, U.S. (Washington Post) [ Riiiiight! That
coordination thing underlying those unfriendly-fire incidents and civilian
deaths wherever american storm troopers happen to be … Eureka! And all this
while everyone was thinking that the same was just typical americana! ]
U.S.
funds go to Taliban, warlords, report finds (Washington
Post) [ Well, defacto bankrupt america can afford it; after all, how much more
defacto bankrupt can the nation get? Well, then again, despite the headline, a
lot of those hundreds of billions are finding their way back into american
hands, albeit dirty ones, like, for example the 360 tons of hundred dollar
bills flown into Iraq and still unaccounted for, etc.. ]Military has minimal
knowledge of and virtually no control over thousands of Afghans it pays to
guard operating bases, bipartisan report finds.
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a
Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012). ]
Sunnis'
walkout mars political talks in Iraq (Washington Post) [ ‘It’s … be…ginning
to look a lot like Christmas, everywhere pervasively corrupt ‘little israel’
defacto bankrupt war criminal nation america goes (to that Christmas tune) …
Nothing like creating the anti-Christian sentiment through failed policy to
keep the war machine greased with money defacto bankrupt america doesn’t really
have (and aren’t the jews / israelis by definition ‘anti-Christ and hence
anti-Christian’) ] One chaotic parliamentary session reflects challenges facing
U.S. efforts to leave behind a stable Iraq with a representative
government. Attack
on Karachi police building kills 18 (Washington Post) About six militants
open fire on a criminal investigations office in the "red zone," a
highly secured area within Pakistan's largest city that houses the provincial
minister's residence and the U.S. Consulate. [Visiting U.S. senators praise Afghan
progress, say drawdown date is unrealistic (Washington Post) [ I’ll
tell you what’s unrealistic: having compromised senators ( ie., non-war-heroe
senile mccain, closet homosexual graham, incompetent zelig zionist lieberman, new
york sinkhole slug Kirsten Gillibrand chided As 'Schumer's (zionist)
Little Girl' ) stay the course with already failed pervasively corrupt,
defacto bankrupt american policy … Paul
Craig Roberts: Government Abandoned Vietnam POWs Kurt
Nimmo |
John McCain worked overtime to make sure Vietnam POWs never came home. I think
the even bigger story vis-à-vis mccain is: http://www.albertpeia.com/heroenot.htm
‘Did you know that that so-called "american heroe" john mccain was
referred to by his fellow pows in Vietnam as something akin to the
"songbird" inasmuch as he was constantly "singing" to his
Viet-Cong captors to curry favor and better treatment? This has been documented
with authority by Colonel David Hackworth. The same violates military
code/protocol (other soldiers have been court-martialed for far less) click Here, Here. [ http://www.albertpeia.com/hackworth.htm
] But, you see, this covered up scenario, compromizing the false facade
of far less than a heroe, is exactly what a criminal (lie of a) nation as
america loves and encourages (get everyone's hands dirty so no-one dares to
rectify same, ie., bush, sr., clinton, bush, jr.). That is, "toe the
(corrupt, propagandized) line", become a criminal, or be exposed, prosecuted,
and/or ruined; and, hasn't anyone asked how "wall street" has been
"spared the spotlight" (and even was accorded protective legislation
from their criminal culpability) and focus of inquiry, attention, and
prosecution despite being the primary beneficiaries financial and otherwise of
these scams (you know the wall street motto, "churn and earn"; huge
conflicts of interest if not outright fraud)…’…Oh and they so can afford it Deficit
panel proposes huge cuts (Washington Post) [ Cuts? I heard the corrupt, incompetent lawmakers were giving
themselves a raise. They actually deserve at least a 10% paycut and abolition
of those lifetime appointments / permanent corrupt bureaucracies. Nothing
succeeds like failure and crime in pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt
america! ] Lawmakers propose curbs on Social Security, cuts in spending and tax
hikes if long-term goals aren't met. ]
A
united goal: Saving the tiger (Washington Post) [
Clearly the wisdom of an historically great leader for the ages,
Vladimir V. Putin should be given great deference in all matters of global
concern. Having evolved from his youthful indiscretion as a novice KGB agent, a
hand dealt to him (by a soviet communist system) more than chosen, he has
reminded the world of the greatness that was, is, and forever will be Russia’s
and His! ] The tale of
the magnificent Siberian tiger, and its unfinished fight for survival, should
be a compelling one for the 500 conservationists and world leaders arriving for
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin's tiger summit this weekend.
Where
no man has gone before (Washington Post) [ Geeh! I can almost hear that
Star Trek Theme reverberate in my head, followed by a taste of Zarathustra …
After all, this is 2010 Odd but hardly a Space Odyssey. Indeed, merely
launching rockets is a far cry from Jupiter, and as for the moon; well, they
just didn’t get that done either … though the video was … okay. Launch
of secret US space ship masks even more secret launch of new weapon
Karzai
officials on CIA payroll (Washington Post)
[Riiiiight! The roster of allies … love of america breakin’ out all over
the region … boy oh boy … talk about creating your own boondoggles … well, they
can afford it. After all, it’s only taxpayer money and america’s already
defacto bankrupt. Then again, they have the requisite licenses; viz., to kill,
to steal, to distribute illegal drugs, etc.. Whew! Glad they didn’t act without
the requisite licensure.]
WikiLeaks founder could be charged under
Espionage Act (Washington Post) [
Drudgereport: Interpol issues
wanted notice for Julian Assange [ They just can’t take the truth! ] ...
US cuts access to files [
Think about it. Really think about it. Their policies are in the tank, along
with the nation and the rest of this world as a consequence. Don’t those so
detrimentally affected (everyone) have a right to know? I think in light of the
global frauds, contrived perpetual wars though defacto bankruptcy of this and
other nations, pervasive corruption and crime, failed policies domestically and
geo-politically while serving the very parochial interests of the
self-interested few, the answer is an unequivocal, YES! I believe that world
history will write Mr. Assange as a hero in the truest sense. He should be
given a medal; and, certainly, since mr. b*** s*** wobama undeservingly got a
‘nobel peace prize’ (what he does, not what he says, ie., Afghanistan, etc.),
who more than Julian Assange is deserving of that and more? Cover-up /
propaganda … thy name is fallen america.]...
WIKILECTURE: 'HILLARY SHOULD
RESIGN' ‘…Hillary Clinton, Julian Assange said, "should resign."
Speaking over Skype from an undisclosed location on Tuesday, the WikiLeaks
founder was replying to a question by TIME managing editor Richard Stengel over
the diplomatic-cable dump that Assange's organization loosed on the world this
past weekend. Stengel had said the U.S. Secretary of State was looking like
"the fall guy" in the ensuing controversy, and had asked whether her
firing or resignation was an outcome that Assange wanted. "I don't think
it would make much of a difference either way," Assange said. "But
she should resign if it can be shown that she was responsible for ordering U.S.
diplomatic figures to engage in espionage in the United Nations, in violation
of the international covenants to which the U.S. has signed up. Yes, she should
resign over that."…’
CITY ON EDGE: Cash-Strapped
Newark, new jersey Forced To Lay Off 14% Of Police Force... [ From decades old
(1978-1985) direct personal experience with newark, n.j., the police are the
absolute last cuts that can be afforded to be made. Indeed, while walking
through Military Park (a sliver of a “park” - more a pedestrian
thoroughfare/cement walks) in newark, new jersey on the way to the bank during
lunch hour, I heard the clearly audible screams/cries of what turned out to be
an old lady on the ground with blood streaming from her mouth. I ran toward the
sound of the cries, the source of which I could not see because there were so
many people in and about this thoroughfare so as to block any vision of the
source of the cries. When I came to the woman, on the ground, blood streaming
from her mouth, I asked what happened, to which she responded she had been hit
in the mouth and knocked to the ground, her purse stolen/put inside her
shopping bag, and she pointed out the criminal casually now walking across the
main street. Nobody stopped to help her, many having passed her by. I slammed
the thug to the ground so hard that, in light of all the blood and confusion
(limbic system / adrenalin flow) I thought I had been stabbed (the blood was
from his elbows hitting the pavement so hard - no one helped / a crowd gathered
/ an undercover cop happened along). When I testified at the Grand Jury
Proceeding I made sure his threat on my life was set forth in prima facie
fashion so as to maximize the DA’s position with both felonies ( he went to
prison – pled out ). The other case I wrote about here ( This was included on
my website in the Psychology discussion of ‘bystander effect’ / diffusion of
responsibility. ) - Having had occasion to have run down a mugger in newark,
n.j. who apparent had followed a girl from the bank on her way to the bursar to
pay tuition, though in pretty good shape, I was astounded by how totally
exhausting such a pursuit was, how much like rubber my arms were when I traded
punches with the perpetrator, and truth be told, if I had a flashlight on my
belt, I have little doubt that I would have probably used it to subdue the
perp. The girl was not that seriously injured, did get her pocketbook and
tuition back, and the criminal went to jail. The other thing about such a
pursuit that amazed me was that no one else assisted the girl or me despite
being in a position to do so). (Other newark / new jersey and new york, n.y.
metro, viz., ie., connecticut, and of course, d.c., d.c. metro, viz., ie.,
virginia experience … corrupt federal judges as maryanne trump barry, sam
alito, shiff, matz (california), hall, underhill, dorsey, etc.. Defacto
bankrupt america’s so-called system is pervasively corrupt and broken (AP) Abolish the corrupt, costly, economically
wasteful lifetime extravagantly appointed federal courts - see RICO case http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) ]
]
Wall
Street Is Laundering Drug Money And Getting Away With It Zach
Carter, … etc. … Drudgereport:
CLASSIFIED NO MORE: USA RACES
TO LIMIT WIKILEAKS DAMAGE [Publishing
the Wikileaks is the right thing to do; after all, one cannot possibly look to
even one rationally correct strategy, domestically, globally, geopolitically
that would justify continued hiding/cover-up of the failed strategies, their
genesis, flawed rationale, etc., which has cost this nation and the world
dearly] ...
WIKILEAKS: We've been hit
with 'mass distributed denial of service attack'...
MOST EMBARRASSING, DAMAGING
DISCLOSURE IN DECADES...
SENATORS: PROSECUTE THE
LEAKERS!
NYT
EXPLAINS: THE DECISION TO PUBLISH … [The NYT clearly did the right thing to
publish; after all, one cannot possibly look to even one rationally correct
strategy, domestically, globally, geopolitically that would justify continued
hiding/cover-up of the failed strategies, their genesis, flawed rationale,
etc., which has cost this nation and the world dearly]...
SKorea
says sound of artillery heard on island...
US,
SKorea start major naval drills...
China
issues warning...
DHS
SEIZES DOMAIN NAMES...
EU
Debt Crisis Escalates...
6
American soldiers killed in Afghanistan...
Next Debt
Crisis 'May Start in Washington'...
WIKILEAKS
TURNS ON OBAMA! … [ Like who hasn’t, and for good reason! Publishing
the Wikileaks is the right thing to do; after all, one cannot possibly look to
even one rationally correct strategy, domestically, globally, geopolitically
that would justify continued hiding/cover-up of the failed strategies, their
genesis, flawed rationale, etc., which has cost this nation and the world
dearly] ]
] Authorities are
investigating whether Julian Assange violated criminal laws, including possible
charges under the Espionage Act, sources say.
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Did Google Block “Barry
Soetoro” Search Term? Screenshots obtained by a Prison Planet reader suggest
that Google may have moved to de-list “Barry Soetoro” as a popular search term
shortly after it rose to the top of the Google Trends charts after yesterday’s
effort by radio talk show host Alex Jones to focus attention on Barack Obama’s
real name.
Bush's
fantasy world (Washington Post) [
I’m frankly surprised to see cohen bite the hand that feeds zionists(
ie., dumbya bush, et als). After all, I’ve never seen cohen not like a pro
israel policy, regardless of the cost
to this nation in blood, sweat, tears, and geopolitical and general decline,
particulary economic / financial; nor like a pro-american policy that
negatively impacts israel. I think america particularly, and the rest of the
world has sacrificed enough for the greedy, blood-thirsty, lawless israelis. ] Cohen: WikiLeaks shows the unreality of a presidential
memoir. Jeffrey
Smith: Fighting
leaks
Palestinians
counter israeli offer on settlements (Washington Post) [ The Palestinians, unlike the lawless israelis are
cognizant of u.n. resolutions, prior accords, international law, etc., in their
proposal. ]
Israeli
prime minister offers conditional settlements freeze (Washington Post )
[ Déjà vu all over again? Now why is there a familiar ring to this story
… maybe ‘cause of the ‘been there done that ‘ reality. It’s really quite
incredible since israel’s in violation of u.n. resolutions (242, 338, etc.),
international law, nuclear proliferation treaty, a drain on the the u.s.
globally / domestically, etc.. The u.s. / international community should impose
a resolution. ]
Israel: Defining 'Jewish state': For
many, term has different meanings (Washington Post) [
Well ain’t that the truth! As per Forrestal’s warning (infra), it meant new
york, pennsylvania, and California … for the greedy zionist israelis it means
anything they want it to mean, borders, laws, u.n. resolutions, civilized
behavior, etc., be damned! ]
Clinton
wraps up Israeli, Palestinian talks - for now (Washington
Post) [ That’s a wrap (Hollywood speak), or just a lot of crap (reality). Well
some celluloid facetime (hill, I said celluloid, not cellulite), appearance of
doing something (not). U.S.
urges Arab states to drop israel nuclear treaty demand Reuters Oooooh! Wow! Sounds like a plan! … For world
conflagration … Another step toward nuclear prone middle east … israel should
be exempt because ….. ‘US –
Israel’s partner in crime, not a referee’ … You really can’t make this stuff up; the preposterous s***
coming out of america! ]The U.S. envoy to the UN atomic watchdog urged Arab
states to withdraw a resolution calling on Israel to sign an anti-nuclear arms
treaty, warning it would send a negative signal to Middle East peace
talks. Israelis,
Palestinians already broaching tough topics in talks, envoy says (Washington
Post) ‘US –
Israel’s partner in crime, not a referee’ (Infowars.com) Israeli and Palestinian leaders are holding a new
round of direct talks. Bombshell:
Barack Obama conclusively outed as CIA creation Wayne Madsen |
Investigative journalist Wayne Madsen has discovered CIA files that document
the agency’s connections to the lives of Barack Obama and his mother, father,
grandmother, and stepfather. ]
RAMALLAH, WEST BANK - Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton on Thursday
wrapped up three days of intense Middle East diplomacy that produced good atmospherics
but no sign that an impasse over Israeli settlement construction has been
resolved. (Alex Brandon - AP)
A
resurgent Syria alarms u.s., israel (Washington Post) [ Tell me! What doesn’t alarm these two
paranoid, zionist neo-nazi regimes of oppression, suppression, aggression, and
regression. If they were individuals, they’d undoubtedly be diagnosed as
psychopaths, sociopaths totally ignorant of the rights of others, laws,
civilized behavior as israel pads her illegal nuke arsenals with american
supplied weaponry / support while expecting all other nations to ‘role over and
die’. Bipolar / manic / depressive, the ups and downs are increasingly
difficult for even americans to follow. Obssessive / compulsive thy names are
zionist israel / america. Projection / displacement regarding their own illegal
acts, war crimes, etc.; what they distinguished from what they do …
dissociative identity disorder, dissociative fugue? Yes … the u.s. and israel
are the world’s lunatics, sorely in need of therapy! ] Syria's fresh interference in Lebanon and
its increasingly sophisticated weapons shipments to Hezbollah have alarm
officials and prompt Israel's military to consider striking a Syrian weapons
depot.
Accountability is unclear in israeli probe of flotilla
raid (Washington
Post) Oh, come on! An israeli probe of an
israeli massacre of civilians. Time for israel to pay; for illegal nukes, for
violations of international law, for continued violations of u.n. resolutions,
for provocations as pretexts to sabotage peace talks, and on and on ad nauseum.
Why does america among other nations feel compelled to sacrifice themselves for
the sake of a global criminal nation with an insatiable greed and blood-thirst
as israel?
The
israeli Spin-Machine in Overdrive: dershowitz to the Rescue? Armed
Israeli commandos, the elite of the elites, rappelled to the deck of a Turkish
ship carrying humanitarian relief supplies to the 1.5 million prisoners in the
Gaza concentration camp.
CIA
Stooge Awlaki Prime Suspect Behind Plane Bomb Plot Paul Joseph
Watson | Evidence screams “false flag” as authorities seek to crush
resistance against invasive airport security measures, while Obama exploits
event for domestic and geopolitical gain.
Did
Obama Order British Authorities To Find Non-Existent Ink Bomb? After having
examined the suspicious ink toner device for six hours and found it to be a
dud, bomb experts at East Midlands Airport only reversed their decision after
being ordered to re-inspect the package by US authorities following President
Obama’s Friday afternoon speech in which he claimed that the devices did in
fact contain explosives.
Toner Bomb Plot
Used to Empower CIA In addition to adding new urgency and a fresh dose of
hysteria to the flagging war on manufactured terror, the toner bomb plot has
provided an excuse to rationalize the global reach of the CIA.
Yemen
Insists No Packages Sent 48 Hours Prior to Toner Bomb Hysteria Kurt
Nimmo | As usual, the government has not done a very good job of
making the latest al-CIA-duh plot credible.
Obama
Issues Fake Terror Alert On Eve Of Elections As we predicted on four
separate occasions would happen, the Obama White House has deliberately
contrived a fake terror scare on the eve of the mid-term elections in an effort
to subdue the rampaging political appetite for anti-big government candidates
that threatens to sweep aside establishment incumbents next week. ]
Obama:
Suspicious packages are a 'credible terrorist threat' (Washington
Post) [October suprprise anyone …
still October … trick or treat … there are skeptics … then there are some
who’ll say … just jewish synagogues, no big deal … nothing of strategic value …
healthy dose of skepticism … Obama
‘Fake Terror’ Alert Story Hits #1 on Google Aaron Dykes
Infowars.com October 29, 2010 Efforts to warn the population that the Obama
Administration, like the Bush Administration
before it, has engaged in issuing fake terror alerts has gone viral,
with the search term “fake terror” reaching #1 on
Google Trends. It is yet another success in the Infowar, initiated
on the Alex Jones Show. As we are just days out from the 2010 midterm
elections, voters must realize that the establishment has willfully engaged in
hyping up false alerts to scare the public into believing that we are under
siege by potential terrorist acts at all moments. Various “officials” have been
warning that an attack is likely to occur for weeks now, and it is no surprise
to see the Obama Administration trying to use the fear to its advantage. Recall
that Obama advisor and former top Clinton official, Robert Shapiro, alluded to the
idea that only a terror attack could save Obama’s presidency earlier
in the year.
“The bottom line here is that Americans don’t believe in President
Obama’s leadership,” said Shapiro, adding, “He has to find some way between now
and November of demonstrating that he is a leader who can command confidence
and, short of a 9/11 event or an Oklahoma City bombing, I can’t think of how he
could do that.”
Read the original story by Paul Joseph Watson here, as it has been updated.
GOP's
Palin paradox (Washington Post) Parker: She's too powerful to ignore, and too (fill-in-the-blank) to take
seriously. [ Say it! … Dumb! … Everybody knows it! … Cher even said it! … I
believe that this further evinces the leadership vacuum in america and is a
testament to how unequivocally far america has fallen. Powerful? I don’t think so! ]
Sarah
Palin: The Next Teleprompter Reader in the White House [ Not gonna’ happen
… she’s just too embarrassingly dumb …
and all that fake macho / zionist b*** s***
… unless her gal o’donnel casts a spell … which is a whole new ball game
… witches … really … how ‘bout dumb *******s …. she’s really dumb enough to
press the button. ] ? Kurt Nimmo | In 2008, Tea Party Sarah trekked to New York to
kiss Henry Kissinger’s ring.
Sarah
Palin: The Next Teleprompter Reader in the White House? [ Not gonna’ happen … she’s just too embarrassingly dumb … unless her gal o’donnel casts a spell …
which is a whole new ball game … witches … really … how ‘bout dumb *******s ...
and all that fake macho / zionist b*** s*** ... she’s really dumb enough to
press the button. ] It looks like the establishment is grooming Tea Party Sarah
for a run. She says as much in the Newsmax interview below.
Palin
calls reporters 'impotent' and 'limp' (Washington Post) [ I must reiterate,
she, palin’s so embarrassingly dumb! She truly is the joke that keeps on
giving! I really mean it! I mean, what next? ] The former Alaska governor
weighed in herself: "Those who are impotent and limp and gutless and they
go on their anonymous -- sources that are anonymous -- and impotent, limp and
gutless reporters take anonymous sources and cite them as being factual
references," she told Sean Hannity. "It just slays me ( this could be
a somewhat Freudian slip as she contemplates the uselessness of sexually
non-interested reporters while she meant lays and I think her supposed /
purported attractiveness / desirability is vastly overstated; but, this makes
for great SNL skits; you know, those reporters not man enough to service her
) because it's so absolutely clear what
the state of yellow journalism is today that they would take these anonymous
sources as fact."
The
power of Palin's touch
(Washington Post) [Wow! Talk about stupid. Murphy could have eliminated the
middle-man (person) and appeared on SNL himself; maybe reprising a familiar
(Eddie) Murphy role as Gumby 2, Son of Gumby. The only thing funnier is palin
herself. She’s so embarrassingly dumb!] .Endorsement lifts little-known
candidate in Md., giving the struggling campaign a "megaphone."
Comment on:
5 Myths about Sarah Palin at 10/14/2010 9:39 PM EDT
Test
yourself to find out how much you know about Sarah Palin. Take the quiz and
after, check out The Washington Post's 'Five Myths about Palin.' (Washington
Post) [ Geeh! I scoured the quiz / 5 myths and nowhere did I see the obvious
myth; viz., that she really has a brain. Maybe gal pal pol protégé o’donnell
can help her out … a few mysterious words, a slimy newt (gingrich) in a caldron
of b*** s*** , and voila … a new reality which is what o’donnell herself is
sorely in need of … O'Donnell, evolved Milbank: She didn't mention mice with
human brains in Wednesday's debate. But she said silly things. Stromberg:
O'Donnell is... wow The CNN host, moderating the long awaited Delaware
senatorial debate Wednesday night, was trying to get the Republican nominee to
talk about her 1998 statement on the Bill Maher show that "evolution is a
myth."
"Do you believe evolution is a myth?" Blitzer asked.
"I believe that the local ... " O'Donnell began, then started anew.
"I was talking about what a local school taught, and that should be
taught, that should be decided on the local community."
"Do you believe evolution is a myth?" the moderator repeated.
"Local schools should make that decision."
"What do you believe?"
"What I believe is irrelevant."
"Why is it irrelevant? Voters want to know."
"What I will support in Washington, D.C. is the ability of the local
school system to decide what is taught in their classrooms," O'Donnell
repeated.
The answer, though, was obvious: Of course she believes in evolution; she is a
product of evolution herself. She has evolved from a very odd woman who spoke
about the evils of masturbation and of mice with fully functioning human brains
and of her experience in sorcery (but she didn't join a coven!). …
"After standing on the
stage, after the debates, I made it very plain, we will not have an
all-volunteer army. And yet, this week—we will have an all-volunteer army. Let
me restate that."—Daytona Beach, Fla., Oct. 16, 2004
"The CIA laid out several
scenarios and said life could be lousy, life could be OK, life could be
better, and they were just guessing as to what the conditions might be
like."—New York, Sept. 21, 2004
"Free societies are hopeful
societies. And free societies will be allies against these hateful few who have
no conscience, who kill at the whim of a hat."—Washington, D.C., Sept. 17,
2004 (Thanks to David Stanford.)
"That's why I went to the
Congress last September and proposed fundamental—supplemental funding, which is
money for armor and body parts and ammunition and fuel."—Erie, Pa., Sept.
4, 2004
"Too many good docs are getting
out of the business. Too many OB/GYN's aren't able to practice their love with
women all across the country."—Sept. 6, 2004, Poplar Bluff, Mo.
"They've seen me make
decisions, they've seen me under trying times, they've seen me weep, they've
seen me laugh, they've seen me hug. And they know who I am, and I believe
they're comfortable with the fact that they know I'm not going to shift
principles or shift positions based upon polls and focus groups."
—Interview with USA Today, Aug. 27, 2004
"I didn't join the
International Criminal Court because I don't want to put our troops in the
hands of prosecutors from other nations. Look, if somebody has done some wrong
in our military, we'll take care of it. We got plenty of capability of dealing
with justice."—Niceville, Fla., Aug. 10, 2004
"So community colleges are
accessible, they're available, they're affordable, and their curriculums don't
get stuck. In other words, if there's a need for a certain kind of worker, I
presume your curriculums evolved over time."—Niceville, Fla., Aug. 10,
2004
"Tribal sovereignty means
that, it's sovereign. You're a—you've been given sovereignty, and you're viewed
as a sovereign entity. And, therefore, the relationship between the federal
government and tribes is one between sovereign entities."—Washington,
D.C., Aug. 6, 2004
"Secondly, the tactics of
our—as you know, we don't have relationships with Iran. I mean, that's—ever
since the late '70s, we have no contacts with them, and we've totally
sanctioned them. In other words, there's no sanctions—you can't—we're out of
sanctions."—Annandale, Va., Aug. 9, 2004
"I mean, if you've ever
been a governor of a state, you understand the vast potential of broadband
technology, you understand how hard it is to make sure that physics, for example,
is taught in every classroom in the state. It's difficult to do. It's, like,
cost-prohibitive."—Washington, D.C., June 24, 2004 (Thanks to Michael
Shively.)
"Our enemies are innovative
and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm
our country and our people, and neither do we."—Washington, D.C., Aug. 5,
2004 (Thanks to Alicia Butler.)
"And I am an optimistic
person. I guess if you want to try to find something to be pessimistic about,
you can find it, no matter how hard you look, you know?"—Washington, D.C.,
June 15, 2004 (Thanks to Robert Irwin.)
"[A] free Iraq is essential
to our respective securities."—Washington, D.C., June 1, 2004
"I want to thank my friend,
Sen. Bill Frist, for joining us today. … He married a Texas girl, I want you to
know. (Laughter.) Karyn is with us. A West Texas girl, just like
me."—Nashville, Tenn., May 27, 2004
"I'm honored to shake the
hand of a brave Iraqi citizen who had his hand cut off by Saddam
Hussein."—Washington, D.C., May 25, 2004
"This has been tough weeks
in that country."—Washington, D.C., April 13, 2004 (Thanks to David
Huddleston.)
"[B]y the way, we rank 10th
amongst the industrialized world in broadband technology and its availability.
That's not good enough for America. Tenth is 10 spots too low as far as I'm
concerned."—Minneapolis, Minn., April 26, 2004
"My job is to, like, think
beyond the immediate."—Washington, D.C., April 21, 2004
"This is historic
times."—New York, N.Y., April 20, 2004
"Obviously, I pray every day
there's less casualty."—Fort Hood, Texas, April 11, 2004 (Thanks to Pat
Gallagher.)
"Recession means that
people's incomes, at the employer level, are going down, basically, relative to
costs, people are getting laid off."—Washington, D.C., Feb. 19, 2004
(Thanks to Garry Trudeau.)
"God loves you, and I love
you. And you can count on both of us as a powerful message that people who
wonder about their future can hear."—Los Angeles, Calif., March 3, 2004
(Thanks to Tanny Bear.)
"The march to war affected
the people's confidence. It's hard to make investment. See, if you're a small
business owner or a large business owner and you're thinking about investing,
you've got to be optimistic when you invest. Except when you're marching to
war, it's not a very optimistic thought, is it? In other words, it's the
opposite of optimistic when you're thinking you're going to war."
—Springfield, Mo., Feb. 9, 2004 (Thanks to Garry Trudeau.)
"See, one of the
interesting things in the Oval Office—I love to bring people into the Oval
Office—right around the corner from here—and say, this is where I office, but I
want you to know the office is always bigger than the person."—Washington,
D.C., Jan. 29, 2004 (Thanks to Michael Shively.)
"More Muslims have died at
the hands of killers than—I say more Muslims—a lot of Muslims have died—I don't
know the exact count—at Istanbul. Look at these different places around the
world where there's been tremendous death and destruction because killers
kill."—Washington, D.C., Jan. 29, 2004 (Thanks to Michael Shively.)
"In an economic recession,
I'd rather that in order to get out of this recession, that the people be
spending their money, not the government trying to figure out how to spend the
people's money."—Tampa, Fla., Feb. 16, 2004
"King Abdullah of Jordan,
the King of Morocco, I mean, there's a series of places—Qatar, Oman—I mean,
places that are developing—Bahrain—they're all developing the habits of free
societies."—Washington, D.C., Jan. 29, 2004
"But the true strength of
America is found in the hearts and souls of people like Travis, people who are
willing to love their neighbor, just like they would like to love
themselves."—Springfield, Mo., Feb. 9, 2004 (Thanks to George Dupper.)
"My views are one that
speaks to freedom."—Washington, D.C., Jan. 29, 2004
"In my judgment, when the
United States says there will be serious consequences, and if there isn't
serious consequences, it creates adverse consequences."
"There is no such thing
necessarily in a dictatorial regime of iron-clad absolutely solid
evidence. The evidence I had was the best possible evidence that he had a
weapon."
"The recession started upon
my arrival. t could have been—some say February, some say March, some
speculate maybe earlier it started—but nevertheless, it happened as we showed
up here. The attacks on our country affected our economy. Corporate scandals
affected the confidence of people and therefore affected the economy. My
decision on Iraq, this kind of march to war, affected the economy."—Meet
the Press, Feb. 8, 2004
"I was a prisoner too, but
for bad reasons."—To Argentine President Nestor Kirchner, on being told
that all but one of the Argentine delegates to a summit meeting were imprisoned
during the military dictatorship, Monterrey, Mexico, Jan. 13, 2004
"[T]he illiteracy level of
our children are appalling."—Washington, D.C., Jan. 23, 2004 (Thanks to
Lewell Gunter.)
"Just remember it's the
birds that's supposed to suffer, not the hunter."—Advising quail hunter
and New Mexico Sen. Pete Domenici, Roswell, N.M., Jan. 22, 2004
"One of the most meaningful
things that's happened to me since I've been the governor—the
president—governor—president. Oops. Ex-governor. I went to Bethesda Naval
Hospital to give a fellow a Purple Heart, and at the same moment I watched him—get
a Purple Heart for action in Iraq—and at that same—right after I gave him the
Purple Heart, he was sworn in as a citizen of the United States—a Mexican
citizen, now a United States citizen."—Washington, D.C., Jan. 9, 2004
"I want to thank the
astronauts who are with us, the courageous spacial entrepreneurs who set such a
wonderful example for the young of our country."—Washington, D.C., Jan.
14, 2004
"And if you're interested
in the quality of education and you're paying attention to what you hear at Laclede,
why don't you volunteer? Why don't you mentor a child how to read?"—St.
Louis, Mo., Jan. 5, 2004
"So thank you for reminding
me about the importance of being a good mom and a great volunteer as
well."—St. Louis, Jan. 5, 2004
"I want to remind you all
that in order to fight and win the war, it requires an expenditure of money
that is commiserate with keeping a promise to our troops to make sure that
they're well-paid, well-trained, well-equipped."
"See, without the tax relief package, there would have been a deficit, but
there wouldn't have been the commiserate—not 'commiserate'—the kick to our
economy that occurred as a result of the tax relief."
"[T]he best way to find these terrorists who hide in holes is to get
people coming forth to describe the location of the hole, is to give clues and
data."
"Justice was being delivered to a man who defied that gift from the
Almighty to the people of Iraq."—Washington, D.C., Dec. 15, 2003
"[A]s you know, these are
open forums, you're able to come and listen to what I have to
say."—Washington, D.C., Oct. 28, 2003
"The ambassador and the
general were briefing me on the—the vast majority of Iraqis want to live in a
peaceful, free world. And we will find these people and we will bring them to
justice."—Washington, D.C., Oct. 27, 2003 (Thanks to Robert Hack.)
"[W]hether they be
Christian, Jew, or Muslim, or Hindu, people have heard the universal call to
love a neighbor just like they'd like to be called
themselves."—Washington, Oct. 8, 2003 (Thanks to George Dupper.)
"See, free nations are
peaceful nations. Free nations don't attack each other. Free nations don't
develop weapons of mass destruction."—Milwaukee, Wis., Oct. 3, 2003
"[W]e've had leaks out of
the administrative branch, had leaks out of the legislative branch, and out of
the executive branch and the legislative branch, and I've spoken out
consistently against them, and I want to know who the leakers
are."—Chicago, Sept. 30, 2003
"Washington is a town where
there's all kinds of allegations. You've heard much of the allegations. And if
people have got solid information, please come forward with it. And that would
be people inside the information who are the so-called anonymous sources, or
people outside the information—outside the administration."—Chicago, Sept.
30, 2003 (Thanks to Andy Bowers.)
"[T]hat's just the nature
of democracy. Sometimes pure politics enters into the rhetoric."—Crawford,
Texas, Aug. 8, 2003 (Thanks to Inigo Thomas.)
"I glance at the headlines
just to kind of get a flavor for what's moving. I rarely read the stories, and
get briefed by people who are probably read the news
themselves."—Washington, D.C., Sept. 21, 2003
"I'm so pleased to be able
to say hello to Bill Scranton. He's one of the great Pennsylvania
political families."—Drexel Hill, Penn., Sept. 15, 2003 (Thanks to Michael
Shively.)
"We had a good Cabinet
meeting, talked about a lot of issues. Secretary of State and Defense brought
us up to date about our desires to spread freedom and peace around the
world."—Washington, D.C., Aug. 1, 2003 (Thanks to Tanny Bear.)
"Security is the essential
roadblock to achieving the road map to peace."—Washington, D.C., July 25,
2003
"Our country puts $1
billion a year up to help feed the hungry. And we're by far the most generous
nation in the world when it comes to that, and I'm proud to report that. This
isn't a contest of who's the most generous. I'm just telling you as an aside.
We're generous. We shouldn't be bragging about it. But we are. We're very
generous."—Washington, D.C., July 16, 2003
"It's very interesting when
you think about it, the slaves who left here to go to America, because of their
steadfast and their religion and their belief in freedom, helped change
America."—Dakar, Senegal, July 8, 2003 (Thanks to Michael Shively.)
"My answer is bring them
on."—On Iraqi militants attacking U.S. forces, Washington, D.C., July 3,
2003
"You've also got to measure
in order to begin to effect change that's just more—when there's more than
talk, there's just actual—a paradigm shift."—Washington, D.C., July 1,
2003 (Thanks to Michael Shively.)
"I urge the leaders in
Europe and around the world to take swift, decisive action against terror
groups such as Hamas, to cut off their funding, and to support—cut funding and
support, as the United States has done."—Washington, D.C., June 25, 2003
"Iran would be dangerous if
they have a nuclear weapon."—Washington, D.C., June 18, 2003
"Now, there are some who
would like to rewrite history—revisionist historians is what I like to call
them."—Elizabeth, N.J., June 16, 2003
"I am determined to keep
the process on the road to peace."—Washington, D.C., June 10, 2003 (Thanks
to Tanny Bear.)
"The true strength of
America happens when a neighbor loves a neighbor just like they'd like to be
loved themselves."—Elizabeth, N.J., June 16, 2003
"We are making steadfast
progress."—Washington, D.C., June 9, 2003 (Thanks to Michael Shively.)
"I'm the master of low
expectations."—Aboard Air Force One, June 4, 2003
"I'm also not very
analytical. You know I don't spend a lot of time thinking about myself, about
why I do things."—Aboard Air Force One, June 4, 2003
"I recently met with the
finance minister of the Palestinian Authority, was very impressed by his grasp
of finances."—Washington, D.C., May 29, 2003
"Oftentimes, we live in a
processed world—you know, people focus on the process and not
results."—Washington, D.C., May 29, 2003
"I've got very good
relations with President Mubarak and Crown Prince Abdallah and the King of
Jordan, Gulf Coast countries."—Washington, D.C., May 29, 2003
"All up and down the
different aspects of our society, we had meaningful discussions. Not only in
the Cabinet Room, but prior to this and after this day, our secretaries,
respective secretaries, will continue to interact to create the conditions
necessary for prosperity to reign."—Washington, D.C., May 19, 2003
"First, let me make it very
clear, poor people aren't necessarily killers. Just because you happen to be
not rich doesn't mean you're willing to kill."—Washington, D.C., May 19,
2003
"We ended the rule of one
of history's worst tyrants, and in so doing, we not only freed the American
people, we made our own people more secure."—Crawford, Texas, May 3, 2003
(Thanks to Tony Marciniec.)
"We've had a great weekend
here in the Land of the Enchanted."—Albuquerque, N.M., May 12, 2003 (New
Mexico's state nickname is "Land of Enchantment.")
"We've got hundreds of
sites to exploit, looking for the chemical and biological weapons that we know
Saddam Hussein had prior to our entrance into Iraq."—Santa Clara, Calif.,
May 2, 2003 (Thanks to Michael Shively.)
"I think war is a dangerous
place."—Washington, D.C., May 7, 2003
"I don't bring God into my
life to—to, you know, kind of be a political person."—Interview with Tom
Brokaw aboard Air Force One, April 24, 2003
"You're free. And freedom
is beautiful. And, you know, it'll take time to restore chaos and order—order
out of chaos. But we will."—Washington, D.C., April 13, 2003
"Perhaps one way will be,
if we use military force, in the post-Saddam Iraq the U.N. will definitely need
to have a role. And that way it can begin to get its legs, legs of
responsibility back."—the Azores, Portugal, March 16, 2003
"I know there's a lot of
young ladies who are growing up wondering whether or not they can be champs.
And they see the championship teams from USC and University of Portland here,
girls who worked hard to get to where they are, and they're wondering about the
example they're setting. What is life choices about?"—Washington, D.C.,
Feb. 24, 2003
"Now, we talked to Joan
Hanover. She and her husband, George, were visiting with us. They are near
retirement—retiring—in the process of retiring, meaning they're very smart,
active, capable people who are retirement age and are
retiring."—Alexandria, Va., Feb. 12, 2003 (Thanks to Dennis Doubleday.)
"Columbia carried
in its payroll classroom experiments from some of our students in
America."—Bethesda, Md., Feb. 3, 2003
"And, most importantly,
Alma Powell, secretary of Colin Powell, is with us."—Washington, D.C., Jan.
30, 2003
"The war on terror involves
Saddam Hussein because of the nature of Saddam Hussein, the history of Saddam
Hussein, and his willingness to terrorize himself."—Grand Rapids, Mich.,
Jan. 29, 2003
"When Iraq is liberated,
you will be treated, tried, and persecuted as a war criminal."—Washington,
D.C., Jan. 22, 2003 (Thanks to Chad Conwell.)
"Many of the punditry—of
course, not you (laughter)—but other punditry were quick to say, no one is
going to follow the United States of America."—Washington, D.C., Jan. 21,
2003
"One year ago today, the
time for excuse-making has come to an end."—Washington, D.C., Jan. 8, 2003
"I think the American
people—I hope the American–I don't think, let me—I hope the American people
trust me."—Washington, D.C., Dec. 18, 2002
"The goals for this country
are peace in the world. And the goals for this country are a compassionate
American for every single citizen. That compassion is found in the hearts and
souls of the American citizens."—Washington, D.C., Dec. 19, 2002 (Thanks to
Michael Shively.)
"There's only one person
who hugs the mothers and the widows, the wives and the kids upon the death of
their loved one. Others hug but having committed the troops, I've got an
additional responsibility to hug and that's me and I know what it's
like."—Washington, D.C., Dec. 11, 2002
"In other words, I don't
think people ought to be compelled to make the decision which they think is
best for their family."—Washington, D.C., Dec. 11, 2002 (Thanks to
Stephanie Nichols.)
"Sometimes, Washington is
one of these towns where the person—people who think they've got the sharp
elbow is the most effective person." —New Orleans, Dec. 3, 2002 (Thanks to
Michael Shively.)
"The law I sign today
directs new funds and new focus to the task of collecting vital intelligence on
terrorist threats and on weapons of mass production."—Washington, D.C.,
Nov. 27, 2002
"These people don't have
tanks. They don't have ships. They hide in caves. They send suiciders
out."—Speaking about terrorists, Portsmouth, N.H., Nov. 1, 2002
"I know something about
being a government. And you've got a good one."—Stumping for Gov. Mike
Huckabee, Bentonville, Ark., Nov. 4, 2002
"I need to be able to move
the right people to the right place at the right time to protect you, and I'm
not going to accept a lousy bill out of the United Nations Senate."—South
Bend, Ind., Oct. 31, 2002
"John Thune has got a
common-sense vision for good forest policy. I look forward to working with him
in the United Nations Senate to preserve these national heritages."
"Any time we've got any
kind of inkling that somebody is thinking about doing something to an American
and something to our homeland, you've just got to know we're moving on it, to
protect the United Nations Constitution, and at the same time, we're protecting
you."—Aberdeen, S.D., same day (Thanks to George Dupper.)
"Let me tell you my
thoughts about tax relief. When your economy is kind of ooching along, it's
important to let people have more of their own money."—Boston, Oct. 4,
2002
"I was proud the other day
when both Republicans and Democrats stood with me in the Rose Garden to
announce their support for a clear statement of purpose: you disarm, or we
will."—Speaking about Saddam Hussein, Manchester, N.H., Oct. 5, 2002
(Thanks to George Dupper.)
"You see, the Senate wants
to take away some of the powers of the administrative branch."—Washington,
D.C., Sept. 19, 2002
"We need an energy bill
that encourages consumption."—Trenton, N.J., Sept. 23, 2002
"People say, how can I help
on this war against terror? How can I fight evil? You can do so by mentoring a
child; by going into a shut-in's house and say I love you."—Washington,
D.C., Sept. 19, 2002
"I'm plowed of the
leadership of Chuck Grassley and Greg Ganske and Jim Leach."—Davenport,
Iowa, Sept. 16, 2002
"There's an old saying in
Tennessee—I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee—that says, fool me once,
shame on—shame on you. Fool me—you can't get fooled again."—Nashville,
Tenn., Sept. 17, 2002
"There's no doubt in my
mind that we should allow the world worst leaders to hold America hostage, to
threaten our peace, to threaten our friends and allies with the world's worst
weapons."—South Bend, Ind., Sept. 5, 2002
"If you don't have any
ambitions, the minimum-wage job isn't going to get you to where you want to
get, for example. In other words, what is your ambitions? And oh, by the way,
if that is your ambition, here's what it's going to take to achieve
it."—Speech to students in Little Rock, Ark., Aug. 29, 2002 (Thanks to
George Dupper.)
"See, we love—we love
freedom. That's what they didn't understand. They hate things; we love things.
They act out of hatred; we don't seek revenge, we seek justice out of
love."—Oklahoma City, Aug. 29, 2002
"There's no cave deep
enough for America, or dark enough to hide."—Oklahoma City, Aug. 29,
2002 (Thanks to Michael Shively.)
"President Musharraf, he's
still tight with us on the war against terror, and that's what I
appreciate. He's a—he understands that we've got to keep al-Qaida on the
run, and that by keeping him on the run, it's more likely we will bring him to
justice."—Ruch, Ore., Aug. 22, 2002 (Thanks to Scott Miller.)
"I'm a patient man. And
when I say I'm a patient man, I mean I'm a patient man."
"Nothing he [Saddam
Hussein] has done has convinced me—I'm confident the Secretary of Defense—that
he is the kind of fellow that is willing to forgo weapons of mass destruction,
is willing to be a peaceful neighbor, that is—will honor the people—the Iraqi
people of all stripes, will—values human life. He hasn't convinced me, nor has
he convinced my administration."—Crawford, Texas, Aug. 21, 2002
"I'm thrilled to be here in
the bread basket of America because it gives me a chance to remind our fellow
citizens that we have an advantage here in America—we can feed
ourselves."—Stockton, Calif., Aug. 23, 2002 (Thanks to Christopher Baird.)
"There's no bigger task
than protecting the homeland of our country."
"The federal government and
the state government must not fear programs who change lives, but must welcome
those faith-based programs for the embetterment of mankind."—Stockton,
Calif., Aug. 23, 2002 (Thanks to George Dupper.)
"I love the idea of a
school in which people come to get educated and stay in the state in which
they're educated."
"There may be some tough
times here in America. But this country has gone through tough times before,
and we're going to do it again."
"I promise you I will
listen to what has been said here, even though I wasn't here."
"I can assure you that,
even though I won't be sitting through every single moment of the seminars, nor
will the vice president, we will look at the summaries."
"Tommy [Thompson, Health
and Human Services secretary,] is a good listener, and he's a pretty good
actor, too."
"The trial lawyers are very
politically powerful. … But here in Texas we took them on and got some good
medical—medical malpractice.""I firmly believe the death tax is good
for people from all walks of life all throughout our society."
—Waco, Texas, Aug. 13, 2002
"There was no malfeance
involved. This was an honest disagreement about accounting procedures. ...
There was no malfeance, no attempt to hide anything."—White House press
conference, Washington, D.C., July 8, 2002
"I also understand how
tender the free enterprise system can be."—White House press conference,
Washington, D.C., July 9, 2002
"Over 75 percent of white
Americans own their home, and less than 50 percent of Hispanos and African
Americans don't own their home. And that's a gap, that's a homeownership gap.
And we've got to do something about it."—Cleveland, Ohio, July 1, 2002
"Whether you're here by
birth, or whether you're in America by choice, you contribute to the vitality
of our life. And for that, we are grateful."—Washington, D.C., May
17, 2002
"I'd rather have them
sacrificing on behalf of our nation than, you know, endless hours of testimony
on congressional hill."—National Security Agency, Fort Meade, Maryland,
June 4, 2002
"We're working with
Chancellor Schröder on what's called 10-plus-10-over-10: $10 billion from the
U.S.,$10 billion from other members of the G7 over a 10-year period, to help
Russia securitize the dismantling—the dismantled nuclear
warheads."—Berlin, Germany, May 23, 2002
"Do you have blacks,
too?"—To Brazilian President Fernando Cardoso, Washington, D.C., Nov. 8,
2001
"This is a nation that
loves our freedom, loves our country."—Washington, D.C, May 17, 2002
"The public education
system in America is one of the most important foundations of our democracy.
After all, it is where children from all over America learn to be responsible
citizens, and learn to have the skills necessary to take advantage of our
fantastic opportunistic society."—Santa Clara, Calif., May 1, 2002
"After all, a week ago,
there were—Yasser Arafat was boarded up in his building in Ramallah, a building
full of, evidently, German peace protestors and all kinds of people. They're
now out. He's now free to show leadership, to lead the world."—Washington,
D.C., May 2, 2002 (Thanks to M. Bateman.)
"This foreign policy stuff
is a little frustrating."—as quoted by the New York Daily News,
April 23, 2002
"I want to thank the dozens
of welfare to work stories, the actual examples of people who made the firm and
solemn commitment to work hard to embetter themselves."—Washington, D.C.,
April 18, 2002 (Thanks to George Dupper.)
"And so, in my State of
the—my State of the Union—or state—my speech to the nation, whatever you want
to call it, speech to the nation—I asked Americans to give 4,000 years—4,000
hours over the next—the rest of your life—of service to America. That's what I
asked—4,000 hours." —Bridgeport, Conn., April 9, 2002 …(there are many
more)
Election outcome may complicate Obama's foreign
policy (Washington Post)
[ Wow! That’s all this country
needs … a more self-destructive zionist-leaning foreign policy which, as
obvious to the rest of the world, ignores israel’s transgressions (ie.,
violations of international law, u.n. resolutions, nuclear non-proliferation
treaty, etc.) while focusing on geopolitically detrimental or otherwise,
non-events. I see an already zionist-leaning foreign policy with wobama and co.
which begs the question … What foreign policy? James Forrestal made the point
infra: ]
Obama
cites Indonesia as model for Muslims (Washington Post)[
Drudgereport: Obama slams israel from
Jakarta … [ Wow! Who woulda’ thunk it … Wobama growing gonads in Indonesia … He
is quite correct, albeit in one of those sparingly infrequent moments … But,
alas … he’ll be returning to ‘little israel’ soon (usa) and I’m sure his
rhetoric will return to typical pro-israeli (anti-american interest) actions
and words (b*** s***)! ]...
netanayahu takes Flight
Back...
Confronts Anti-israel
Reality/Truth Movement in USA...
China Ratings
Agency Downgrades America... ] In city he
once lived in as a boy, Obama heralds nation's "spirit of tolerance"
that allows mosques, churches and temples to co-exist in a democracy.
Progress in Afghan war called 'uneven'
( Washington Post ) [ Uneven? Riiiiight! The real question
consonant with reality: Is there EVEN progress at all … just a little bit … un
petit peux … teeny weeny, itsy bitsy, one iota of progress … A resounding NO! …
unless you’re counting the magnitude of america’s defacto bankruptcy,
anti-american sentiment, etc.. ]
Visiting U.S. senators praise Afghan
progress, say drawdown date is unrealistic (Washington Post) [ I’ll
tell you what’s unrealistic: having compromised senators ( ie., non-war-heroe
senile mccain, closet homosexual graham, incompetent zelig zionist lieberman, new
york sinkhole slug Kirsten Gillibrand chided As 'Schumer's (zionist)
Little Girl' ) stay the course with already failed pervasively corrupt,
defacto bankrupt american policy … Paul
Craig Roberts: Government Abandoned Vietnam POWs Kurt
Nimmo |
John McCain worked overtime to make sure Vietnam POWs never came home. I think
the even bigger story vis-à-vis mccain is: http://www.albertpeia.com/heroenot.htm
‘Did you know that that so-called "american heroe" john mccain was
referred to by his fellow pows in Vietnam as something akin to the
"songbird" inasmuch as he was constantly "singing" to his
Viet-Cong captors to curry favor and better treatment? This has been documented
with authority by Colonel David Hackworth. The same violates military
code/protocol (other soldiers have been court-martialed for far less) click Here, Here. [ http://www.albertpeia.com/hackworth.htm
] But, you see, this covered up scenario, compromizing the false facade
of far less than a heroe, is exactly what a criminal (lie of a) nation as
america loves and encourages (get everyone's hands dirty so no-one dares to
rectify same, ie., bush, sr., clinton, bush, jr.). That is, "toe the
(corrupt, propagandized) line", become a criminal, or be exposed,
prosecuted, and/or ruined; and, hasn't anyone asked how "wall street"
has been "spared the spotlight" (and even was accorded protective
legislation from their criminal culpability) and focus of inquiry, attention,
and prosecution despite being the primary beneficiaries financial and otherwise
of these scams (you know the wall street motto, "churn and earn";
huge conflicts of interest if not outright fraud)…’…Oh and they so can afford
it Deficit
panel proposes huge cuts (Washington Post) [ Cuts? I heard the corrupt, incompetent lawmakers were giving
themselves a raise. They actually deserve at least a 10% paycut and abolition
of those lifetime appointments / permanent corrupt bureaucracies. Nothing
succeeds like failure and crime in pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt
america! ] Lawmakers propose curbs on Social Security, cuts in spending and tax
hikes if long-term goals aren't met.
Families remember USS Cole 10 years later
(Washington Post) [ If only Americans remembered the uss
liberty, they’d understand the israeli albatross strangling and bleeding the
life out of america as they have since that
fateful day.] In
the Middle East, it's still 1947 (Washington
Post) [ Indeed it should be! Among the few
times the cia was correct, and they’ve been trying to put square pegs in round
holes ever since, to america’s substantial detriment. I wonder what what those
american sailors of the US Liberty killed by the israelis would say?
USS
Liberty Survivor Threatened by Unknown Israeli This is what happened to Phillip F. Tourney, decorated war hero
and survivor of Israel’s premeditated attack on the USS Liberty 43 years ago.
On the evening of Aug. 6, Tourney was verbally threatened by a foreign national
claiming to work for the government of israel. As for the purported disdain
shown for war mongerer netanayahu, if only wobama’s actions matched his words,
the same would represent a major plus for him and the nation of america, so
sorely in need of pluses whether the same be budgetary or economic or
geopolitical. In fact, for America to abrogate 1948 would guarantee America’s
survival, prosperity, and global hegemony in the most positive sense. ]
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored A viral You Tube upload of
one of Alex Jones’ most popular feature films ‘The Obama Deception’ has been
censored following a spur of the moment campaign to elevate the movie’s title
to the top of the major internet search engines. In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Judges
rule without title, lenders can't foreclose (Washington Post) [ Rules of law? I didn’t think
they cared. That’s certainly the direct experience I’ve had with the pervasively
corrupt american legal / judicial system (along with the other two branches of
the u.s. government and defact bankrupt america generally). Court decisions
could call into doubt the ownership of mortgages, raising urgent challenges for
both the real estate market, wider financial system. Connecticut,
California join probe of Ally (Washington Post) [I’d be much more impressed if they initiated a probe of more
readily discernible criminal offenses in violation of the RICO Act http://albertpeia.com Frauds/Liars
(sic-lawyers)Covering Up for Other Frauds/Liars (sic-lawyers). In Productive
Societies as China, Japan, etc., Fraudulent Liars (sic-lawyers) and the
Fraudulent u.s. System They're a Part of Are Unheard Of/Non-existent. List of
Files Regarding Filed Attorney Grievance Against Fraud coan et als Or Here For A Clearer View Of
Filed
Grievance Complaint, Response, Exhibits, and Related RICO Filings Note the Committee of
Frauds/Liars (sic-lawyers). Included are DOJ Rep., State Court Rep., State
Atty. General Office Rep., and even a Vegetable Garden yale law prof who
probably never practiced law in his life. How Pathetic! http://albertpeia.com/fbiofficela91310
] Justice:
FBI improperly opened probes
(Washington Post) [ I just hope
they’re as zealous (in probing readily discernible crime) with regard to my
RICO matters and the corruption in the (judicial / legal) process since, in the
final analysis, it will have been the corruption within that will have brought
the nation down irrevocably and totally.
October 15, 2010 (*see infra)
Steven M. Martinez, Assistant Director In Charge
Federal Bureau of Investigation, USDOJ
11000 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 1700
Los Angeles, CA 90024
Dear Sir:
I enclose herewith 3
copies of the within DVD rom autorun disk (which will open in your computer’s
browser) as per your office’s request as made this day (the disk and contents
have been scanned by Avast, McAfee, and Norton which I’ve installed on my
computer to prevent viral attacks / infection and are without threat). I also
include 1 copy of the DVD as filed with the subject court as referenced therein
(which files are also included on the aforesaid 3 disks in a separate folder
named ‘112208opocoan’). The (civil) RICO action (as you’re aware, the RICO Act
is a criminal statute which provides a civil remedy, including treble damages
and attorney fees, as an incentive for private prosecution of said claims
probably owing to the fact that the USDOJ seems somewhat overwhelmed and in
need of such assistance given the seriousness and prevalence of said violations
of law which have a corrupting influence on the process, and which corruption
is pervasive). A grievance complaint against Coan was also filed concurrently
with the subject action and held in abeyance pending resolution of the action
which was illegally dismissed without any supporting law and in contravention
of the Order of The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge, USDC, District
Connecticut. The files below the horizontal rule are the referenced documents
as filed. (Owing to the damage to the financial interests of both the U.S. and
the District of Congresswoman Roybal-Allard, viz., Los Angeles, the
Qui Tam provisions of the Federal
False Claims Act probably would apply and I would absent resolution seek to
refer the within to a firm with expertise in that area of the law with which I
am not familiar).
The document in 5 pages under penalty of
perjury I was asked to forward to the FBI office in New Haven is probably the
best and most concise summary of the case
RICO Summary to FBI Under Penalty
of Perjury at Their Request (5 pages) [
ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://albertpeia.com/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf ].
The correspondence I
received from the Congresswoman by way of email attachment (apparent but
typical problem with my mail) along with my response thereto is included on the
3 disks as fbicorrespondencereyes.htm . With regard to the
calls to the FBI’s LA and New Haven, CT offices: There was one call to the LA
office and I was referred to the Long Beach, CA office where I personally met
with FBI Agent Jeff Hayes to whom I gave probative evidentiary documents of the
money laundering which he confirmed as indicative of same (he was transferred
from said office within approximately a month of said meeting and his location
was not disclosed to me upon inquiry). The matter was assigned to FBI Agent Ron
Barndollar and we remained in touch for in excess of a decade until he abruptly
retired (our last conversation prior to his retirement related to the case and
parenthetically, Rudy Giuliani whose father I stated had been an enforcer for
the mob to which he registered disbelief and requested I prove it, which I did
– he served 12 years in prison, aggravated assault/manslaughter? – and no,
there is no Chinese wall of separation – Andrew Maloney’s the one that
prosecuted gotti).
In contradistinction
to the statement in said correspondence, there is a plethora of information
including evidence supporting the claims set forth in the RICO VERIFIED COMPLAINT (see infra). Such includes and as set
forth in the case, inter alia,
There is applicable insurance / surety coverage and neither LA, nor
creditors, nor I should continue to have been damaged by this brazened corrupt
and illegal scenario, which should be resolved in accordance with the
meaningful rules of law apposite thereto.
Sincerely,
Albert L. Peia
611 E. 5th Street, #404
Los Angeles, CA 90013
(213) 219-**** (cell phone)
(213) 622-3745 (listed land line but there are unresolved problems with
the line, computer connection may be the reason but I hesitate to chance
greater non-performance / worsening by their ‘fix’ so cell phone best for
contact).
----------
*The foregoing and as
indicated therein was previously send 9-14-10 but delivery confirmation was
flawed as set forth below and my inquiries to the u.s. postal service rebuffed
(I believe tampered with inasmuch as your office could not locate same). This
cover letter (9-13-10) is on the 3 disks with navigable hyperlinks to the
subject files for ease of reference, including the files in the RICO action as
indicated. (10-15-10) I spoke with Rose, FBI, ADIC Secretary, who indicates
once again that your office has not received the aforesaid and which can
reasonably be presumed to have been tampered with, and hence, a violation of
the federal statute concerning same. ]
----------
*The foregoing and as
indicated therein was previously send 9-14-10 but delivery confirmation was
flawed as set forth below and my inquiries to the u.s. postal service rebuffed
(I believe tampered with inasmuch as your office could not locate same). This
cover letter (9-13-10) is on the 3 disks with navigable hyperlinks to the
subject files for ease of reference, including the files in the RICO action as
indicated.
-----
Label/Receipt Number:
0310 1230 0000 0862 8183
Expected Delivery
Date: September 15, 2010
Class: Priority Mail®
Service(s): Delivery
Confirmation™
Status: Delivered
Your item was
delivered at 10:14 am on September 15, 2010 in LOS ANGELES, CA 90024.
Track and
Confirm
Enter Label/Receipt Number.
Enter Label / Receipt
Number.
Detailed
Results:
Bullet Delivered, September 15, 2010, 10:14 am, LOS
ANGELES, CA 90024
Bullet Arrival at Post Office, September 15, 2010,
4:12 am, LOS ANGELES, CA 90024
Bullet Processed through Sort Facility, September 14,
2010, 8:29 pm, LOS ANGELES, CA 90052
Bullet Acceptance, September 14, 2010, 4:04 pm, LOS
ANGELES, CA 90017
----
Sent Postage Prepaid: United States Mail - VIA Priority
Mail, Delivery Confirmation and VIA Certified Mail this 5th day of October,
2010.
Signed:
___________________________________
Albert L. Peia
• Audio: Obama on terrorism tactics
A subtler tack to fight Afghan corruption?
(Washington
Post) [ How about a not so subtler tack
to fight corruption starting right here in the u.s. of a. where corruption and
crime are pervasive and in fact, at the root of the Afghanistan problems, from
american reinvigorated heroin trade to bribery attendant thereto to killing
civilians, etc.. Defacto Bankrupt, Meaningfully Lawless,
War Criminal Nation america, the leader of nations … in crime:
Though having but 5% of the world’s population, america can
boast 76% of the world’s serial killers, followed by Europe with England/UK
then Germany leading the way for the eu [excerpt, 6 minute video, Serial
Killers: Real Life Hannibal Lechters
http://www.albertpeia.com/realifeamericaserialkillers.mpg (as is consistent with crime generally,
see infra)]. Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive
(defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of
the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern
emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed
employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in
this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense
( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
) ]:
Rank |
|||
# 1
|
11,877,218 |
|
|
# 2
|
6,523,706 |
|
|
# 3
|
6,507,394 |
|
… ]
Stepped-up
efforts fail to stem drug money (Washington Post) [ Come on! Wake up! That’s american, yes american big business.
The stuff that the war in Afghanistan is made of; viz., ie., heroin, etc..
]Stashing cash in spare tires, engine transmissions and truckloads of baby
diapers, couriers for Mexican drug cartels are moving tens of billions of
dollars in profits south across the border each year, a river of dirty money
that has overwhelmed U.S. and Mexican customs agents.
Mideast Digest: Iran's Ahmadinejad
calls for regional solution to Afghan crisis (Washington
Post) And appropriately so, as leader of a nation in the region as opposed to
invading nations from outside the region (particularly as one targeted by
assassins the likely assigns of those outside the region).
Judge: 'Don't ask, don't tell' is
unconstitutional (Washington Post) [ Well, we
all know that judge walker is alledgedly a homo, so the question here is
whether judge phillips is a lesbian… just kidding! Not to slight homosexuals
but to emphasize judicial bias / corruption which is pervasive in america and
I’ve observed, experienced, and have been substantially damaged by pervasive
and systemic corruption in the american judicial process which has become more
blatant and which justifies the abolition of these costly, corrupt lifetime
appointment / bureaucracies. The fact is that ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’ is the
policy throughout the pervasively corrupt federal system which is indeed as
illegal as it is unconstitutional!
( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
). ]
(Previously) I’d say this
alito vs. wobama is a tempest in a teapot inasmuch as alito is more than just a
lightweight, hack, liar, fraud etc., as set forth in the comments. alito is a
criminal who should have served / should be serving time in prison for
obstruction of justice, bribery, among other RICO violations. To alito, drug
money is as green as corporate money and worth his vote as well. In addition to
being an inept [I looked in on the one mob case he had brought, bungled, lost
(accidently on purpose?) since I was suing some mob-connected under RICO and
the court (I had known / previously met outside of court the judge Ackerman
through a client) was absolute bedlam and a total joke since incompetent
corrupt alito brought in all 20 mob defendants (rather than prosecute one or a
few to flip them first) who feigning illness had beds/cots in the courtroom
along with their moans during testimony and had the jury in stitches)] and
corrupt (see below and particularly the summary provided to the FBI under
penalty of perjury [
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
] ) u.s. attorney.
You’re naïve to think
that the so-called supreme court is any different from the rest of the
meaningfully lawless and pervasively corrupt american ‘system’. I knew well an
accomplished trial lawyer, fellow american college of trial lawyers / and a bar
examiner, who pondered from time to time becoming a judge “so he’d never have
to work again” – his words.
Some comments on
alito…all appropriate:
Probably the worst appointment in one
hundred years.
Posted by: mnjam
-----------------------
Really? That's a pretty sweeping statement
to make about someone who's only been on the court a short few years.
And I thought that liberals were in
universal agreement that Clarence Thomas was the worst appointment in all of
history?
Posted by: blert | January 28, 2010 2:11
AM | Report abuse
----------------------------
Yes. Really. Alito is a total lightweight and hack. He makes Thomas look like
John Marshall or Oliver Wendell Holmes. I KNOW ALITO.
Posted by: mnjam | January 28, 2010 2:24 AM |
the loser here is alito.lost his composure not good for a judge especially
afederal or supreme justice .loser big time this will live with guy for a very
time.roberts and the other justices will have a talk with him that is a
given.this relly larger than o one day news cycle.
Posted by: donaldtucker | January 28, 2010 1:12 AM |
Should Alito resign or be impeached?
Posted by: jdmca | January 28, 2010 1:05 AM |
I
include the first two comments to the foregoing headline:
Billo Says:
June 11th, 2010 at 6:15
am
Lunacy? Keep in mind
that this country is run and controlled by lunatics. Our press government and
military seem to take their orders from Israel. Isarel wants to be known as a
pack of “mad dogs. Do we want “mad dogs” controlling us?
Here we see a bunch of phony accusations against Iran just
like we did in the run up to the bogus wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and now
Pakistan. The boy has cried wold ten thousand times. It’s time to identify the
“lunatics” and kindly take away the car keys. If you won’t let your friends
drive drunk, why do we let a bunch of “lunatic” enemies run this place.
Glen Reply:
June 11th, 2010 at 6:47
am
Lunacy it would be.
But it is also to their
great credit that the Iranians have not made their own threats.
Everyone knows there are
3 WMD threats, Nuclear Biological and chemical. The scariest of which is
Biological.
Any attack done under
the threat of immediate biological retaliation would deter only the insane.
Watch out america home
of the insane, home of the leaders who want an 80% population reduction.
Paul
Craig Roberts: Government Abandoned Vietnam POWs Kurt Nimmo
| John McCain worked overtime to make sure Vietnam POWs never came home. I
think the even bigger story vis-à-vis mccain is: http://www.albertpeia.com/heroenot.htm
‘Did you know that that so-called "american heroe" john mccain was
referred to by his fellow pows in Vietnam as something akin to the
"songbird" inasmuch as he was constantly "singing" to his
Viet-Cong captors to curry favor and better treatment? This has been documented
with authority by Colonel David Hackworth. The same violates military
code/protocol (other soldiers have been court-martialed for far less) click Here, Here. [ http://www.albertpeia.com/hackworth.htm
] But, you see, this covered up scenario, compromizing the false facade
of far less than a heroe, is exactly what a criminal (lie of a) nation as
america loves and encourages (get everyone's hands dirty so no-one dares to
rectify same, ie., bush, sr., clinton, bush, jr.). That is, "toe the
(corrupt, propagandized) line", become a criminal, or be exposed,
prosecuted, and/or ruined; and, hasn't anyone asked how "wall street"
has been "spared the spotlight" (and even was accorded protective
legislation from their criminal culpability) and focus of inquiry, attention,
and prosecution despite being the primary beneficiaries financial and otherwise
of these scams (you know the wall street motto, "churn and earn";
huge conflicts of interest if not outright fraud)…’
Coalition wants UK space lift-off [ Don’t make me laugh! ]
Israel’s
Nukes Out of the Shadows Israel faces unprecedented pressure to abandon
its official policy of “ambiguity” on its possession of nuclear weapons as the
international community meets at the United Nations in New York this week to
consider banning such arsenals from the Middle East.
NASA wants mission to bring Martian rocks to Earth (AP) Why?
They already have that and more:
Launch
of secret US space ship masks even more secret launch of new weapon
http://www.albertpeia.com/UFOetryWeNeverWentToTheMoonPNTV.wmv
[To the
Professor at the beginning of the course]
10-5-09
Postscript: Professor *****,
I felt compelled to thank you again for the add; not to curry your favor but
indeed to express profound thanks inasmuch as this is probably the last formal
course at a formal educational institution I'll ever take; and among the most
important. While I had bought at discount a library-discarded 1993 Anthropology
by Embers text, though meaning to read same never quite got to it. I am
astounded by the substantial amount of time involved in the evolutionary
process, not that I ever stopped to think about it, and one must come away with
the sense of 'and all that...for this?'. This course should be required
curriculum along with psychology, sociology, etc., but probably won't be owing
to what is, as it should be, a very humbling educational experience for any
member of the human race.
Regards,
Al Peia
Go to following pages for
above links:
http://www.albertpeia.com/currentopics2ndqtr10108.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com
http://www.scribd.com/alpeia
http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm
You may post a comment on my blog on any topic: http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com
Drudgereport:
KRUGMAN:
'We are now, I fear, in the early stages of a third depression'...
STOCKS HIT LOWEST OF YEAR...
DEBT
SOARS TO HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE WWII...
PRIVATE SECTOR SEES WEAKER JUNE JOBS...
Sputtering...
Bilderberg
2010: Between the sword and the wall...
Protesters
'being detained, searched, questioned'...
Final
List of Participants...
Stephen Hawking: Aliens exist but don't talk to them --
it's too dangerous … might not like us… Oh pshaw! … Human nature, man’s inhumanity
to man? … Such humble beginnings and evolutionary history … What’s not to
like? … Besides, not to worry. With their advanced technologies that defy
human understanding, the aliens already know you’re here … to stay. So, not to
worry. After all, as we know from that documentary of that same name, ‘Earth
Girls Are Easy’ … and then there’s photosynthesis on earth in a very big way
also going for it! ...
Seeing
Aliens Will Likely Take Centuries. Centuries? Not goin’ to happen; at best,
decades.