Pay
Attention to New Year Market Indicators [ The problem with these anecdotal,
mechanized (and sophomoric) technical guidelines is that the frauds on wall
street are well aware of them and with the current computer technology can
easily program to meet them with the fraudulent hope they’ll become
self-fulfilling. I disagree with the ‘everything coming up roses, green shoots
and all’ scenarios being painted in typical self-interested fashion and hardly
objective. Even near perma-bull John Augustine (speaking with Motek) looks for
at a minimum, if things go well for the economy (not at all likely and no can
do with real numbers / data) a 3-5% pullback / correction near term. Keep in
mind all stock prices have been inflated by amounts exceeding the gains, viz.,
13-17% by the debased dollar which of course is reflected in huge price
increases for commodities across the board which will impact margins or
consumption or both going forward. ] Plessis ‘If Santa has not yet made his way
to your investment portfolio, don’t despair. According to Jeffrey Hirsch (Stock Trader’s Almanac),
the “Santa Claus Rally” normally occurs during the last five trading days of a
year and the ensuing first two trading sessions of the new year. During this
seven-day period stocks historically tend to advance (by 1.5% on average since
1950), but when recording a loss, they frequently trade much lower in the new
year.With four of the seven sessions behind us there has been little in it,
with the S&P 500 Index marginally up by 0.09% and the Dow Jones Industrial
Average losing 0.03%.Another old stock market saw tells us the first five
trading days of January sets the course for January (known as the “First Five
Days Early Warning System”), and if the month of January is higher, there is a
good chance the year will end higher, i.e. the so-called “January Barometer”.
Every down January since 1950 has been followed by a new or continuing bear
market or a flat year. “As January goes, so goes the year,” said Hirsch.Lastly,
according to Hirsch, the “December Low Indicator" says that should
the Dow Jones Industrial Index close below its December low anytime during the
first quarter, it is frequently an excellent warning sign of lower levels
ahead. The numbers to watch are those recorded on December 1: 1,206.07 for the
S&P 500 Index and 11,255.78 for the Dow Industrial Average.The American
benchmark indices will have to crash today in order to make 2010 a down year.
Early indications therefore point to the January Barometer (with January having
been a down month) this year failing investors. Looking ahead to 2011, time
will tell whether the year-end/new-year indicators play out according to the
historical pattern. Meanwhile, we’ll have some fun tracking how it pans out.’
Happy
New Year! Here Are The Final Numbers For 2010 , On Friday December 31, 2010
‘Indices mixed
today, but not for the year. Stocks weren't the real winner, however, with
commodity prices booming.
First, today's
scoreboard:
Now, the final scoreboard for 2010:
Equities:
Check out the best and worst performing global equity indices
in 2010 >
Commodities:
Check
out Societe Generale's guide to commodities in 2011 >
Bonds:
Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Broad Market
Index rose 4.7% this year.
The Economic Collapse
Dec 17, 2010
The financial
collapse that so many of us have been anticipating is seemingly closer then
ever. Over the past several weeks, there have been a host of ominous
signs for the U.S. economy. Yields on U.S. Treasuries have moved up
rapidly and Moody’s is publicly warning that it may have to cut the rating on
U.S. government debt soon. Mortgage rates are also moving up
aggressively. The euro and the U.S. dollar both look incredibly shaky.
Jobs continue to be shipped out of the United States at a blistering pace as
our politicians stand by and do nothing. Confidence in U.S. government
debt around the globe continues to decline. State and local governments
that are drowning in debt across the United States are savagely cutting back on
even essential social services and are coming up with increasingly “creative”
ways of getting more money out of all of us. Meanwhile, tremor after
tremor continues to strike the world financial system. So does this mean
that we have almost reached a tipping point? Is the world on the verge of
a major financial collapse?
Let’s hope
not, but with each passing week the financial news just seems to get eve
worse. Not only is U.S. government debt spinning wildly toward a breaking
point, but many U.S. states (such as California) are in such horrific financial
condition that they are beginning to resemble banana republics.
But it is not
just the United States that is in trouble. Nightmarish debt problems in Greece,
Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Belgium and several other European nations
threaten to crash the euro at any time. In fact, many economists are now
openly debating which will collapse first – the euro or the U.S. dollar.
Sadly, this is
the inevitable result of constructing a global financial system on debt.
All debt bubbles eventually collapse. Currently we are living in the
biggest debt bubble in the history of the world, and when this one bursts it is
going to be a disaster of truly historic proportions.
So will we
reach a tipping point soon? Well, the following are 25 signs that the
financial collapse is rapidly getting closer….
#1 The official U.S. unemployment rate has not been
beneath 9 percent since
April 2009.
#2 According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there are
currently 6.3
million vacant homes in the United States that are either for sale or for
rent.
#3 It is being projected that the U.S. trade deficit
with China could hit 270 billion dollars
for the entire year of 2010.
#4 Back in 2000, 7.2 percent of blue collar workers
were either unemployed or underemployed. Today that figure is up
to 19.5 percent.
#5 The Chinese government has accumulated approximately
$2.65 trillion in
total foreign exchange reserves. They have drained this wealth from the
economies of other nations (such as the United States) and instead of
reinvesting all of it they are just sitting on much of it. This is
creating tremendous imbalances in the global economy.
#6 Since the year 2000, we have lost 10% of our middle class jobs. In the
year 2000 there were approximately 72 million middle class jobs in the United
States but today there are only about 65 million middle class jobs.
#7 The United States now employs about the same number
of people in manufacturing as
it did back in 1940. Considering the fact that we had 132 million
people living in this country in 1940 and that we have well over 300 million
people living in this country today, that is a very sobering statistic.
#8 According to CoreLogic, U.S. housing prices have now
declined for
three months in a row.
#9 The average rate on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage soared
11 basis points just this past week. As mortgage rates continue to
push higher it is going to make it even more difficult for American families to
afford homes.
#10 22.5 percent of all residential mortgages in the
United States were in negative equity as of the end of the third quarter
of 2010.
#11 The U.S. monetary base has
more than doubled since the beginning of the most recent recession.
#12 U.S. Treasury yields have been rising steadily
during the 4th quarter of 2010 and
recently hit a six-month high.
#13 Incoming governor Jerry Brown is scrambling to find
$29 billion more to cut from the California state budget. The
following quote from Brown about the desperate condition of California
state finances is not going to do much to inspire confidence in California’s
financial situation around the globe….
“We’ve been living in fantasy land. It is much worse
than I thought. I’m shocked.”
#14
24.3
percent of the residents of El Centro, California are currently unemployed.
#15
The average home in Merced, California has declined in value by
63 percent over the past four years.
#16
Detroit Mayor Dave Bing has come up with a new way to save money. He
wants to cut 20
percent of Detroit off from essential social services such as road repairs,
police patrols, functioning street lights and garbage collection.
#17
The second most dangerous city in the United States – Camden, New Jersey – is
about to lay off about
half its police in a desperate attempt to save money.
#18
In 2010, 55
percent of Americans between the ages of 60 and 64 were in the labor
market. Ten years ago, that number was just 47 percent. More older
Americans than ever find that they have to keep working just to survive.
#19
Back in 1998, the United States had 25 percent of the world’s high-tech export
market and China had just 10 percent. Ten years later, the United States had
less than 15 percent and China’s share had soared to 20 percent.
#20
The U.S. government budget deficit increased to a whopping $150.4 billion last
month, which represented the biggest November budget deficit on record.
#21
The U.S. government is somehow going to have to roll over existing debt and
finance new debt that
is equivalent to 27.8 percent of GDP in 2011.
#22
The United States had been the leading consumer of energy on the globe for
about 100 years, but this past summer China took over the number one spot.
#23
According to an absolutely stunning new poll, 40 percent of all U.S. doctors plan to bail out of the
profession over the next three years.
#24
As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had been
unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over
6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.
#25
All over the United States, local governments have begun instituting “police
response fees”. For example, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has come up
with a plan under which a
fee of $365 would be charged if police are called to respond to an
automobile accident where no injuries are involved. If there are injuries
as a result of the crash that is going to cost extra.
As you examine
the long-term trends, you quickly come to realize that the U.S. is trapped in
an endless spiral of debt, the middle class is being wiped out, the U.S. dollar
is being destroyed and America is rapidly becoming a post-industrial wasteland.
Posted below
are 16 nightmarish economic trends to watch carefully in 2011. It is
becoming exceedingly apparent that unless something is done rapidly we are
heading for an economic collapse of unprecedented magnitude….
#1 Do you want to see something scary? Just check
out the chart below. Since the beginning of the economic downturn, the
U.S. monetary base has more than doubled. But don’t worry – Federal
Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has promised us that this could never cause
inflation. In fact, Bernanke says that we need to inject even more
dollars into the economy. So if you are alarmed by the chart below, you
are just being irrational according to Bernanke….
#2 Thousands of our factories, millions of our jobs and
hundreds of billions of dollars of our national wealth continue to be shipped
overseas. In 1985, the U.S. trade deficit with China was 6 million dollars
for the entire year. In the month of August
alone, the U.S. trade deficit with China was over 28 billion
dollars. Nobel economist Robert W. Fogel of the University of Chicago
is projecting that the Chinese economy will be three times larger than the U.S. economy by the
year 2040 if current trends continue.
#3 The United States is rapidly becoming a
post-industrial wasteland. Back in 1959, manufacturing represented 28
percent of all U.S. economic output. In 2008, it represented only
11.5 percent and it continues to fall. Sadly, the truth is that America
is being deindustrialized. As of the end of 2009, less
than 12 million Americans worked in manufacturing. The last time that
less than 12 million Americans were employed in manufacturing was in 1941.
#4 The number of Americans that have been out of work
for an extended period of time has absolutely exploded over the last few
years. As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had
been unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over
6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.
#5 The middle class continues to be squeezed out of
existence. According to a poll
taken in 2009, 61 percent of Americans ”always or usually” live
paycheck to paycheck. That was up substantially from 49 percent
in 2008 and 43 percent in 2007.
#6 The number of Americans living in poverty is
absolutely skyrocketing. 42.9 million Americans are now on food
stamps, and one out of every six Americans is now enrolled
in at least one anti-poverty program run by the federal government.
Unfortunately, many of those that have been hardest hit by this economic
downturn have been children. According to one new study,
approximately 21 percent of all children in the United States are
living below the poverty line in 2010 - the highest rate in 20 years.
#7 Many American families have been pushed beyond the
breaking point during this economic downturn. Over 1.4 million Americans
filed for personal bankruptcy in 2009, which represented a
32 percent increase over 2008. The final number for 2010 is expected
to be even higher.
#8 The U.S. real estate market continues to
stagnate. During
the third quarter of 2010, 67 percent of mortgages in Nevada were
“underwater”, 49 percent of mortgages in Arizona were “underwater” and 46
percent of mortgages in Florida were “underwater”. So what happens if home
prices go down even more?
#9 More elderly Americans than ever are being forced to
put off retirement and continue working. In 2010, 55
percent of Americans between the ages of 60 and 64 were in the labor
market. Ten years ago, that number was just 47 percent.
Unfortunately, it looks like this problem will only get worse in the years
ahead. In America today, approximately half of all workers have
less than $2000 saved up for retirement.
#10 In the United States today, there are simply far too
many retirees and not nearly enough workers to support them. Back in 1950
each retiree’s Social Security benefit was paid for by 16
workers. Today, each retiree’s Social Security benefit is paid for
by approximately 3.3 workers. By 2025 it is projected that
there will be approximately two workers for each retiree.
#11 Financial assets continue to become concentrated in
fewer and fewer hands. For example, the “big four” U.S.
banks (Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells
Fargo) had approximately 22 percent of all deposits in FDIC-insured
institutions back in 2000. As of the middle of 2009 that figure was up to 39 percent.
#12 The Federal Reserve has been destroying the value of
the U.S. dollar for decades. Since the Federal Reserve was created in
1913, the U.S. dollar has lost over 95 percent of its purchasing power.
An item that cost $20.00 in 1970 would cost you $112.35 today. An item
that cost $20.00 in 1913 would cost you $440.33 today.
#13 Commodity prices continue to soar into the
stratosphere. Ten years ago, the price of a barrel of oil hovered around 20 to 30
dollars most of the time. Today, the price of oil is rapidly closing
in on 100 dollars a barrel and there are now fears that it could soon go much
higher than that.
#14 Federal government spending is completely and
totally out of control. The U.S. government budget deficit increased to a
whopping $150.4 billion last month, which represented the biggest November deficit on record. But our
politicians can’t seem to break their addiction to debt. In fact,
Democrats are trying to ram through a
1,924 page, 1.1 trillion dollar spending bill in the final days of the
lame-duck session of Congress before the Republicans take control of the House
of Representatives next year.
#15 The U.S. national debt is rapidly closing in on 14 trillion dollars. It is more
than 13 times larger than it was just 30 short years ago. According to an
official U.S. Treasury Department report to Congress, the U.S. national
debt is projected to climb
to an estimated $19.6 trillion by 2015.
#16 Unfortunately, the official government numbers
grossly understate the horrific nature of the crisis we are facing. John
Williams of Shadow Government Statistics has calculated that if the federal government
would have used GAAP accounting standards to measure the federal budget deficit
for 2009, it would have been approximately 8.8
trillion dollars. Not only that, but John Williams now says that U.S.
government debt is
so wildly out of control that it is mathematically impossible for us to
“grow” our way out of it….
The government’s finances not only are out of control,
but the actual deficit is not containable. Put into perspective, if the
government were to raise taxes so as to seize 100% of all wages, salaries and
corporate profits, it still would be showing an annual deficit using GAAP
accounting on a consistent basis. In like manner, given current revenues,
if it stopped spending every penny (including defense and homeland security)
other than for Social Security and Medicare obligations, the government still
would be showing an annual deficit. Further, the U.S. has no potential way
to grow out of this shortfall.
The more one examines the U.S. economic situation,
the more depressing it becomes. The U.S. financial system is trapped
inside a horrific debt spiral and we are headed straight for economic
oblivion.
If our leaders attempt to interrupt the debt spiral
it will plunge our economy into a depression. If our leaders attempt to
keep the debt spiral going for several more years it will just make the
eventual crash even worse. Either way, we are headed for a financial
implosion that will be truly historic.
The debt-fueled good times that we have been enjoying
for the last several decades are rapidly coming to an end. Unfortunately
for the tens of millions of Americans that are already suffering, our economic
problems are only going to get worse in the years ahead.’
The following
are 25 unemployment statistics that are almost too depressing to read….
#1 According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the
U.S. unemployment rate for November was 9.8
percent. This was up from 9.6 percent in October, and it continues a
trend of depressingly high unemployment rates. The official unemployment
number has been at 9.5 percent or higher for well over a year at this point.
#2 In November 2006, the “official” U.S. unemployment
rate was just 4.5
percent.
#3 Most economists had been expecting the U.S. economy
to add about 150,000 jobs in November. Instead, it
only added 39,000.
#4 In the United States today, there are over 15
million people who are “officially” considered to be unemployed for
statistical purposes. But everyone knows that the “real” number is even
much larger than that.
#5 As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million
Americans that had been unemployed for half a year or longer. Today,
there are over
6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.
#6 The number of “persons not in the labor force” in
the United States recently
set another new all-time record.
#7 It now takes the average unemployed American over
33 weeks to find a job.
#8 When you throw in “discouraged workers” and
“underemployed workers”, the “real” unemployment rate in the state of
California is
actually about 22 percent.
#9 In America today there are not nearly enough jobs
for everyone. In fact, there are now approximately
5 unemployed Americans for every single job opening.
#10 According
to The New York Times, Americans that have been unemployed for five weeks
or less are three times more likely to find a new job in the coming month than
Americans that have been unemployed for over a year.
#11 The U.S. economy would need to create 235,120
new jobs a month to get the unemployment rate down to pre-recession levels
by 2016. Does anyone think that there is even a prayer that is going to
happen?
#12 There are 9
million Americans that are working part-time for “economic reasons”.
In other words, those Americans would gladly take full-time jobs if they could
get them, but all they have been able to find is part-time work.
#13 In 2009, total wages, median wages, and average
wages all
declined in the United States.
#14 As of the end of 2009, less than 12 million
Americans worked in manufacturing. The last time that less
than 12 million Americans were employed in manufacturing was in 1941.
#15 The United States has lost at least 7.5
million jobs since the recession began.
#16 Today, only
about 40 percent of Ford Motor Company’s 178,000 workers are employed
in North America, and a big percentage of those jobs are in Canada and
Mexico.
#17 In 1959, manufacturing represented 28
percent of U.S. economic output. In 2008, it represented 11.5
percent.
#18 Earlier this year, one poll found that 28% of all American households had at least one member that
was looking for a full-time job.
#19 In the United States today, over
18,000 parking lot attendants have college degrees.
#20 The United States has lost a staggering
32 percent of its manufacturing jobs since the year 2000.
#21 As the employment situation continues to stagnate,
millions of American families have decided to cut back on things such as
insurance coverage. For example, the percentage of American households
that have life insurance coverage is at its lowest level in
50 years.
#22 Unless Congress acts, and there is no indication
that is going to happen, approximately 2 million Americans will stop receiving unemployment checks over the next
couple of months.
#23 A poll that was released by the Pew Research Center
back in June discovered that an
astounding 55 percent of the U.S. labor force has
experienced either unemployment, a pay decrease, a reduction in hours
or an involuntary move to part-time work since the economic downturn
began.
#24 According to Richard McCormack, the United States
has lost over
42,000 factories (and counting) since 2001.
#25 In the United States today, 317,000
waiters and waitresses have college degrees.
But this is
what we get for creating the biggest debt
bubble in the history of the world. For decades we have been digging
a deeper hole for ourselves by going into increasingly larger amounts of
debt. In America today, our entire economy is based on debt. Even
our money
is debt. We were fools if we ever thought this could go on forever.
Just think about it. Have you ever gone out and run up a bunch of
debt? It can be a lot of fun sitting behind the wheel of a new car,
running your credit cards up to the limit and buying a beautiful big house that
you cannot afford. But in the end what happens? It always catches up with you.
Well, our collective debt is starting to catch up with us. There is a sea
of red ink on every level of American society. It is only a matter of
time before it destroys our economy. IF YOU THINK THAT
THINGS ARE BAD NOW, JUST WAIT. THINGS ARE GOING TO GET A WHOLE LOT
WORSE. A HORRIFIC ECONOMIC COLLAPSE IS COMING, AND IT IS GOING TO BE VERY,
VERY PAINFUL.’
Timid
Tuesday: Is it Safe? Davis
‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are
simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of
global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form
of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh)
is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut
$100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while
continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1%
each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool
all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT
THERE! ‘
17 Things Worrying
Investors Lloyd's Wall of Worry
Worry Count: 17
CHINA: 1,330,044,605 people can’t be wrong.
The PIIGS: Fasten your seatbelts. It’s gonna be a long, bumpy, expensive,
weird, (insert your own adjective here) freak show of a ride.
CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER 49 STATES: Not yet as dire as “The PIIGS”. Might I
suggest the classier moniker of “The Prosciuttos” for the American basket-case
states?
QE II: Gobble?
U.S. ECONOMY: The “Punky Brewster” of the global economic landscape.
UNEMPLOYMENT: Only thing worse than losing your job, losing your unemployment
check. At least there’s the holiday season to cheer everyone up (read: heavy
sarcasm).
TAXES: Praying to the Financial Market Gods that we don’t have another
TARP-like vote fiasco.
OBAMA ADMINISTRATION PART II: Still two years before the Pres. election and the
peanut gallery is already pleading for a Hail Mary Pass to get them back in the
game.
HFT: Instead of beating up these liquidity supplying traders, let’s honor them
with their very own stock exchange. But wait -- with no retail
saps to pick-off they will never get that Day 1 opening bell tick. Perfect.
XMAS 2010: As my professor friend Nick says, “Nowadays Americans are dining off
of two menus – The Million Dollar and the $0.99 Cent.” And both
are pissed about it.
CURRENCIES: Poor Mr. Greenback. Does someone need a hug?
HOUSING CRISIS: Price Stabilization – Are we there yet? Just a little bit more.
Are we there yet? Just a little bit more. Are we there yet? Just a little bit
more….
INFLATION/DEFLATION: Fed Chief Ben B. comes out swinging from his heels in
defense of inflation promotion. Don’t punch yourself out as this one is likely
to go the distance.
COMMODITIES: Corrected but still sky high; fortunately these prices are only
affecting core, basic, life-sustaining necessities and sparing our electronic
gadgets and plus-sized SUVs. Whew!
INSIDER TRADING: Another black eye for Hedge Funds. I estimate that makes black
eye number 6,597.
INTEREST RATES: South Korea and China slowly turning up the dial to “11”. On
the other hand the U.S. has removed the dial altogether. This never ends well….
NORTH KOREA: Here we go again.
Drudgereport: Medicare
Bound to Bust 'by 2017' as First Boomers Hit 65...
POLL:
Only 21% Want FCC to Regulate Internet...
Fear of Political Agenda...
Next
Year's Wars: 16 brewing conflicts to watch...
VIDEO:
Oil Could Push to $110...
Berlin
sees most snow in December since 1900s...
White
House Plans to Push 'Global Warming' Policy, GOP Vows Fight...
FLASHBACK:
Gore Reports Snow and Ice Across World Vanishing Quickly...
Top
China blogger forced to shut down magazine...
Non-US
banks gain from Fed crisis fund; Half of emergency credit facility cash went to
foreign institutions...
Backlash...
THE
MAN WHO TOOK ON BIG SIS... Pilot angered TSA with video... ‘…News10 established a relationship with the Liu
family last July after their rental home in Sacramento's Oak Park was destroyed
by an arsonist. Four firefighters were injured when the house exploded…’
Oil
rises near $92...
Ex-SHELL
president sees $5 gas in year...
MATTHEWS:
Why Doesn't Obama Just Release The Birth Certificate?
NYT:
Bundle Up, It's Global Warming...
Obama
Reading List: Book on Reagan... [ Reagan would absolutely detest,
hate (yes, Reagan could hate ) wobama
and did detest, hate people like failed president like no other in history,
wobama]
Duma
Disses Obama, delays START vote...
Assange
fears death in a US jail...
OPEC
Members 'Target $100'...
China,
following pervasively corrupt, meaningfully lawless, defacto bankrupt american
example, bars political dissident access to lawyers...
Indefinite
detention possible for suspects at Guantanamo Bay...
DARK SIDE OF SIS: AGENTS RAID HOME OF PILOT CRITICAL OF TSA...
Posted Video Exposing Airport Security Flaws...
PUNISHED...
DEFICIT
HITS RECORD...
MINORITY
REPORT: Spielberg advising on rebranding Dems... [ Come on! You
can’t unring the bell on the damage they’ve done by particularly doing the
opposite of what they said, from perpetual war, to no prosecutions of the wall
street frauds now marked to anything as per criminal courtesy via FASB rule
change, etc.. They b*** s*** like their mascot, ‘wobama the b’ (for b*** s***);
not that the republicans are substantially different … they’re incompetent,
corrupt, etc... They’ve embraced the ‘history of decline and fall of
nation-states’. ]
TODAY:
Obama pledges 'singular focus' on economy...
ONE
YEAR AGO: 'Obama to focus hard on economy'...
TWO
YEARS AGO: Obama to put 'renewed focus' on economy...
US
press should fear being targeted: Assange...
BLOWOUT:
Government liabilities rose $2 trillion for year...
PEOPLE:
308,745,538
DEBT:
$13,868,461,000,000
STATE
OF THE NATION: Census shows slowing US growth...
GOP-leaning
states pick up seats in Congress...
NY, OH, IL, MA, NJ and PA lose seats...
FCC
Gives Government Power to Regulate Web...
Agency
splits along party lines...
DeMint
vows to reverse 'Internet takeover'...
AP:
TOP 10 STORIES OF 2010...
MOODY'S
May Cut US Rating on Tax Package...
New
spending bill totals $1.1 TRILLION!
Congress
Job Approval Rating Worst in GALLUP History...
FLASHBACK:
Obama Promised 5-Day, Public Review of Bills Before Signing; Signs Tax Bill
Within Hours of House Vote...
13 million get unexpected tax bill from 'tax credit'?
Pelosi
skips vote on tax bill, then shuns signing ceremony...
House
votes to extend gov't funding -- through Tuesday...
OBAMA
FALLS TO 40% APPROVE IN FOXNEWS POLL...
The FCC's Threat to Internet Freedom...
Dems
play politics with 'net neutrality' vote...
'Sweeping
new rules'...
REGULATE...
SHUT:
Music Web Sites Dispute Legality of Their Closing...
UK
ministers threaten: Censor web, or we will legislate 'to protect children'...
Plan
to block all online porn...
Hugo
Chavez defends plan for web regulations...
Venezuela
tightens Internet regulation...
THEY'RE
COMING FOR THE INTERNET!
JULIUS
SEIZURE
$2
trillion debt crisis threatens to bring down 100 US cities...
States
face $140 billion in budget shortfalls...
32
states borrow billions from feds to cover unemployment benefits...
Friedman:
America the Stupid...
French
AAA Grade at Risk as Downgrades Sweep Europe...
Oil Heads
Toward $100...
Chavez
defends plan for Internet regulations...
UK
ministers threaten: Censor web, or we will legislate 'to protect children'...
The
FCC's Threat to Internet Freedom...
Dems
play politics with 'net neutrality' vote...
'Sweeping
new rules for the Internet'...
SKorea
detains Chinese fishermen...
Security
Council meets on tensions...
North
Threatens More Attacks...
...
says war would go nuclear
China
warns of escalating arms race...
'Don't ask' repeal moves toward law...
DREAM OVER: Senate Blocks Bill for Illegal Immigrants...
Budget
Brawl Looms in Congress...
Michelle
wears $2,500 purchased dress to Christmas concert...
Senate
Plans Weekend Votes on 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell,' Amnesty Bill...
Senator:
Gay ban tied to Russia treaty...
UN
PLANS INTERNET REGULATION [ Those
who can’t do … work at the u.n., in the u.s.; after all, for the first time in
human history, the internet has for the most part enabled an unfettered look at
the truth and truthful reasons for the unequivocally sad state of the world.
That a supposed world body should support and potentially facilitate the
encroachment upon such global communication is reason enough to dismantle such
an already discredited body which arbitrarily seeks enforcement of some
‘resolutions’ as to some but not others ( ie., israel, u.n. resolutions 242,
338, etc., israeli and american war crimes, etc..) Raison d’tre … I don’t think
so! Quite the contrary! ]
Regulators
close banks in GA, FL, AR, MN... [ Regulators shutter 3 small banks in Ga., 1 each in
Fla., Ark., Minn.; 157 banks closed in 2010 ]
Payrolls Drop in 28 States, Joblessness Rises in 21...
Nevada rate to 14.3%...
Rhode Island City Nears Bankruptcy...
Ireland Debt Downgrade...
IMF chief worried about Europe domino effect...
Senate
clerks preparing to read 1,924-page spending bill on floor -- for 50 hours!...
Senator:
'There's No Way' To Read Entire Bill Before Vote...
KERRY:
'Why Would We Have To Read Something?'
McConnell
offers 1-page resolution in place of 1,924-page spending bill...
SHOWDOWN:
Gingrich Urges Fillibuster...
Biden
To GOP Opposition: 'Get Out Of The Way'...
Reid:
Earmarks are 'what we're supposed to do'...
Ban on Gitmo transfers vanishes...
Omnibus
bill loaded with goodies for abortion industry...
PRIORITIES:
House approves bill to make hybrids louder...
23%
Say USA Heading in Right Direction, Lowest Since Obama Took Office...
POLL:
Just 29% think Obama will be re-elected...
Is
America the sick man of the globe?
BUCHANAN:
Is this our America anymore?
UK
Red Cross Bans Christmas to Avoid Offending Muslims...
SALVATION
ARMY bell ringer caught stealing from kettle...
Deputies
suspended after getting into brawl at party...
2
women charged with robbing 74-year-old...
Hundreds
of gifts for kids stolen from 'Toys for Tots'...
Thousands
of dollars in donated toys ruined after skunk attack...
Grocery
prices grow by 1.5 times inflation rate...
Socialist
president plays host to capitalism...
REPORT:
Obama told lawmakers not passing tax deal could end presidency...
A
$48 billion earmark...
PAPER:
Year of bullying, bluff and bailouts leaves euro fighting for its life...
Reeling
from riots, Italy faces uncertainty...
Greek
anti-austerity strike turns violent...
VIDEO...
MORE
UNREST: 2011...
$575
million PER PAGE...
6,488
earmarks...
McConnell
fumes: 'No one has seen it'...
Reid threatens to keep Congress into next year...
Intelligence
Reports Offer Dim Views of Afghan War...
HOLBROOKE
LAST WORDS: STOP THIS WAR!
UPDATE:
RUSSIA TO USE CHINA CURRENCY IN TRADES...
UK
GRANTS ASSANGE BAIL; SWEDEN APPEALS...
Release
delayed...
Lawyer:
Secret Grand Jury Meeting Outside Washington on Leak...
CHRISTMAS CRIMES: Drive-By
Purse Snatcher Terrorizing Women In NJ...
2
women charged with robbing 74-year-old...
Hundreds
of gifts for kids stolen from 'Toys for Tots'...
Thousands
of dollars in donated toys ruined after skunk attack...
Copper
thieves burn down city's Christmas tree...
Burglar
steals family's gifts -- and its dog!
Grave
robbers steal 400 urns from cemetery...
'Grinch'
Steals Packages Off Doorsteps, Signs For Deliveries...
Home
Invaders Tie Up 12-Year-Old Boy, Take Video Games...
90-Year-Old
Man Put In Choke-Hold, Robbed Of $370...
'Tea
Party' anger simmers over backroom deal; Ramps up efforts...
2
Bank Failures Bring Year's Tally To 151...
COPS: Madoff's son hangs himself with dog collar in SoHo
apartment...
...gave mechanic $400 tip day before suicide
Madoff
Trustee Launches $19.6 Billion Lawsuit; 60 accused of participating in 'illegal
scheme'...
Pump
prices close in on average $3 a gallon...
FLASHBACK:
$1.81 when Obama took office...
BLOW
TO O: JUDGE RULES GOV'T CAN'T MANDATE CITIZENS BUY HEALTH CARE...
Cantor:
Direct Appeal to Supremes...
POLL:
Support For Obamacare Hits New Low...
Pelosi:
'Are You Serious?'
Obama: 'I'm itching for a fight'...
U
N C O N S T I T U T I O N A L
Barbara
Walters: 'This Guy (wobama) Has an Emotional Problem' [ Yes, it’s true,
babawawa … wobama has substantial mental problems which along with inherent
criminality are pervasive in america which also includes boner, and where were
you in discussing such, babawawa regarding psychopaths bush, clinton, etc., or
even former beau, senile greenspun ]...
DEFICIT
HITS RECORD...
Putin Slams West for Assange Arrest...
US
cable: Cuba to be insolvent within 2-3 years...
Assange
Lawyers Prepare for U.S. Spying Indictment...
Teen
Arrested in Hack Attacks...
Donations
to WIKILEAKS are Tax Deductible -- in Germany...
Anonymous
cyberwarriors stun experts...
Media
outlets may be probed over WikiLeaks stories, joe ‘zelig zionist incompetent
and corrupt‘ lieberman in Campaign To Trample The First Amendment claims Can the US government prosecute media outlets
that reported on the WikiLeaks cables? According to joe ‘zelig zionist
incompetent and corrupt‘ lieberman in
his Campaign To Trample The First Amendment, the answer is maybe.
Home
Values May Drop by $1.7 Trillion This Year...
UNEMPLOYMENT
WEEK: DOWN TO 421,000; REVISED UP LAST WEEK 438,000...
POLL:
Most Americans Say They’re Worse Off Under Obama...
F
O [Related: Olbermann:
Obama Is ‘God Damned Wrong’ ]
REVENGE
OF THE WIKIS!
Army
of hackers targets the Swedish government...
Take down
MASTERCARD site...
...VISA
PAYPAL...
AMAZON
braces for hactivist attack...
Palin
under cyber attack...
Assange's
'poison pill' file impossible to stop...
MOSCOW:
Give Assange Nobel Peace Prize...
SENATE REJECTS REPEAL OF DON'T ASK DON'T TELL...
House
Dems push through massive budget bill...
Final
House Race Decided; GOP Net Gain: 63 Seats...
Ron
Paul, Author of 'End the Fed,' to Lead Fed Oversight Panel...
Student
protesters in London turn violent over tuition hikes...
Thousands
try to break through police barricades at Houses of Parliament...
...attack car containing Prince Charles, Camilla...
Rolls
Royce hit with paint; rear window smashed...
US Treasuries hit by biggest sell-off since
LEHMAN...
Prices Plunge for 2nd Day on Deficit Fears...
Rattles investors...
Oil tipped to bubble over $100 barrel...
Food Stamp Rolls Continue to Rise...
SHOCK POLL: Americans Believe China Has Surpassed USA
in Economic Strength...
'U.S. fiscal health worse than Europe's'...
Sorkin: Palin TV show is 'snuff movie'... [ Yeah … ‘she’s really all that’ and worse …
I have great difficulty getting past the fact that she’s so incredibly dumb …
not just ‘nonintellectual’ … butt really dumb! ] ‘… Sorkin, writer of the recent Facebook movie The
Social Network, also accused the Fox News contributor of making a "snuff
film" after the latest episode of Sarah's Palin's Alaska featured the
politician going hunting with her father and shooting a caribou. He described
Palin as "deranged", a "witless bully" and a "phony
pioneer girl". He also said The Learning Channel, the US cable network,
"should be ashamed of itself" for broadcasting her "truly awful
reality show"…’
Senate convicts Clinton-appointed judge...
[ Come on! One way or another they’re almost all getting bribed; including the initial
lifetime appointment as alito, trump-barry, etc.. Abolish the
corrupt, costly, economically wasteful lifetime extravagantly appointed federal
courts (see RICO case http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) End those lifetime licenses to steel. ] In earlier hearings, two attorneys who once worked
with Porteous had testified that they gave him thousands of dollars in cash,
including about $2,000 stuffed in an envelope in 1999, just before Porteous
decided a major civil case in their client's favor.
Assange could face espionage trial in USA...
Palin under cyber attack...
1st Amendment issues...
Assange's 'poison pill' file impossible to stop...
WIKILEAKS: Stop Us? You'll Have to Shut Down Web...
Berkeley 'resolution' honoring leaker...
Scientologists outraged over spoof Christmas play... [ Hubbard was such a total fraud!
Scientologists are delusional! ]St. Petersburg, Florida – ‘A controversial holiday musical production is
set to open at American Stage Theatre in St. Petersburg. Photos:
Pictures of
A Very Merry Unauthorized Children's Scientology Pageant "A
Very Merry Unauthorized Children's Scientology Pageant" is a musical play
designed for the holiday season, but this play will not focus on Jesus Christ,
but instead the story is about L. Ron Hubbard, the founder of the church Of
Scientology…’
NO BAIL...
Assange
'sabotaged condom' during one night stand...
Refused to wear one during another...
Stockholm police: Both women are victims...
INTERPOL WARRANT FOR NOT WEARING PROTECTION?
ASSANGE
UNDER ARREST:
'HE
DIDN'T WEAR A CONDOM'
Under
arrest, will Assange dump the Doomsday Files?
Assange:
Don't shoot messenger for revealing uncomfortable truths...
FLASHBACK:
HILLARY COMPLAINS GOVERNMENTS BLOCK FREE FLOW OF INFO ON INTERNET...
WIKILEAKS:
LIVE UPDATES...
FCC
push to regulate news draws fire...
Lieberman:
NYT may have committed crime by printing WIKILEAKS docs...
US
to Host World Press Freedom Day in 2011 … [ What a total travesty! The u.s. as
host … What a cruel joke! ] ...
OBAMA
RACES TO CUT TAXES BEFORE REPUBLICANS: 6.2% Social Security tax would drop to
4.2% for workers for one year... MORE
THE
NEW OBAMA!
SURPRISE TAX CUT
MOVE [ As
with defacto bankrupt america generally, more defacto bankrupt social security
system, etc., are distinctions without
significant differences. ]
OIL
HITS $89...
Pump
prices hit 2-year high...
Schwarzenegger Declares Fiscal Emergency, Proposes $9.9 Billion In
Cuts...
Top
Democrats defect, join unified GOP...
WIKILEAKS'
Assange Will Release Encrypted Files If Arrested...
Cables
Reveal How US Manipulated Climate Accord...
Cable:
China Leaders Ordered Hacking on GOOGLE...
Meddling
by Neighbors Adds to Iraq's Woes...
Government
Workers Ordered Not to Read Cables...
Gingrich:
Leaks Show Admin 'Shallow,' 'Amateurish'...
McConnell:
Assange a 'High-Tech Terrorist'...
List of facilities 'vital to US security' leaked...
Mirror
Sites Appear by the Hundreds...
Assange
Speaks...
Hillary
Jokes...
US
forced to shake up embassies around world...
THE
DOOMSDAY FILES
PAPER:
Wave goodbye to Internet freedom...
[ I’m absolutely astounded that the world is not profoundly grateful to Assange
et als for providing insight into the machinations and insanity of pervasively
corrupt, defacto bankrupt america, et als who wreaked havoc on the world as
they pillage, plunder, and destroy (lives, nations, etc.). ]
+39,000
JOBS IN NOVEMBER...
BOEHNER: Dem Leaders Should Stop Wasting Time on Tax
Hike Votes...
HALPERIN: Dems 'In Midst of Nervous Breakdown'...
Obama Makes Surprise Trip to Afghanistan...
Flies 7,000 miles -- talks to Karzai for 15 minutes on
phone!
Forgets the Coast Guard...
Leaves Biden behind to handle 'disappointing' jobs
report...
Reid, funded by casinos, pushes online gambling...
ABCNEWS accused of breaking embargo...
2010
death toll of US troops nears that of 2001-2008 combined...
OBAMA SPEECHWRITER JOKES ABOUT TSA GROPING: Allows
'defrocked priests to give back to society'...
US
Deficit-Cutting Plan Falls Short of Needed Votes...
UNEMPLOYMENT UP TO 9.8%
HILLARY: Secretary of State will be 'my last public
position'... ... PITCHE$ $IGNED DVD ON HOME $HOPPING NETWORK..
US TO BAILOUT EU
[ Riiiiight! Sounds like a plan! After all, in defacto bankrupt america money
does grow on trees … derivatively (pun intended) that is … you know … that ever
more worthless fiat paper currency … and ultimately, existentially,
philosophically, doesn’t paper come from trees … sure it does …so, no problemo
since money grows on trees. ]
BOMBSHELL: European banks took big slice of
Fed aid...
Hundreds of billions of dollars...
Fed reveals global extent of its backing...
]Funds went to stalwarts of
American industry including GE and Caterpillar and household-name companies
such as Verizon, new data show.
GEORGIA: HUNDREDS LINE UP IN COLD FOR HEAT HELP...
Assistance Funds Quickly Depleted...
'Almost like being in soup line during great
depression'...
VIDEO...
DELAYING TAX VOTE COULD 'CRASH
STOCK MARKET' STARTING 12/15 [ Come on! There’s no way to justify
the tax cut to the top 1% including the frauds on wall street … their threats
don’t hunt no more … the nation’s defacto bankrupt … see Davis, supra! ]
Chase Bank orders branch to remove Christmas tree...
Cyber attack forces WIKILEAKS to change web address...
Respected media outlets collaborate with
organization... [ Said
outlets and other disseminators and of course Wikileaks deserve accolades for
the advancement of first amendment liberties in the name of an informed global
body politick for all.]
UPDATE: Latest developments...
Foreign contractors hired Afghan 'dancing boys'...
Embassy cables portray Karzai as corrupt, erratic...
CIA drew up UN spying wishlist...
Assange speaks...
UPDATE: Latest WIKILEAKS developments...
Foreign contractors hired Afghan 'dancing boys'...
Embassy cables portray Karzai as corrupt, erratic...
CIA drew up UN spying wishlist...
SANTA CLAUSE: FED AID WENT TO COMPANIES, BANKS,
OFFSHORE...
SECRETLY BAILED OUT GE -- GE NEWS OUTLETS FAILED TO
REVEAL IN FED COVERAGE...
SANTA
CLAUSE: FORD, BMW, TOYOTA Took Secret Government Money......
Fed Created Conflicts in Improvising Financial System
Rescue...
Tax Breaks for Bailout Recipients Spark Debate...
MORE SECRETS: Fed Withholds Data for $885 Billion in
Loans...
RUSSIA TO HOST '18 WORLD CUP FINALS...
Qatar selected '22 host over USA, others...
'AMERICAN
PSYCHO' musical in works... [ I recommend the derivative films,
American Psycho and American Psycho 2,
for insight! ]
National Board of Review: SOCIAL NETWORK named best
film... [ National board of what? ‘Inception’ is by
far and away the ‘Best Film’ across the board, in all categories, and on the
list! ] LIST...
BANK OF AMERICA Becoming 'Bank of Asia' as
Revenue Increases 30% ...
RESET: PUTIN CRITICIZES USA OVER WIKILEAKS … [ Putin
deserves the greatest deference in matters of global concern in light of his
greater rationality; america’s self-serving accusations are merely envy and
projection / displacement (in psychoanalytic terms) of america’s pervasively
corrupt, criminal, broken system which is a far cry in reality from defacto
bankrupt america’s propaganda.]...
REWARD: [ The payoff. Bribe complete! Next bribe
scenario … ] CITI to Hire Obama's Ex-Budget Chief Orszag...
FLASHBACK: Rubin and friends ride NY-DC shuttle...
ZUCKERMAN: Watching America's Decline and Fall [the moral authority of the West has
dramatically declined in the face of the financial crisis. It has revealed deep
fault lines within Western economies that have spread to the global economy. The majority of Western governments
are running fiscal deficits of 10 percent or more relative to
GDP, but it is increasingly clear that there will be no quick fixes, that big
government and fiscal deficits will not bring us back to the status quo ante.
Indeed, the tidal wave of red ink has meant that the leverage-led or
debt-led growth model is dead. Developed countries will be forced to deal with
their debt on every level, from the personal to the corporate to the sovereign.
Being able to borrow may have made people feel richer, but having to repay the
debt is certainly making them feel poorer, particularly since the unfunded
liabilities that many governments face from aging populations will have to be
paid for by a shrinking band of workers. (Ecoutez, mes amis!) Demography is destiny. As a result, there is a
burgeoning consensus that we are witnessing an inevitable rise of the East and
a decline of the West…( Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012). ) ]...
Interpol issues wanted notice for Julian
Assange [ They just can’t take the truth! ] ...
US cuts access to files [ Think about it. Really think
about it. Their policies are in the tank, along with the nation and the rest of
this world as a consequence. Don’t those so detrimentally affected (everyone)
have a right to know? I think in light of the global frauds, contrived
perpetual wars though defacto bankruptcy of this and other nations, pervasive
corruption and crime, failed policies domestically and geo-politically while
serving the very parochial interests of the self-interested few, the answer is
an unequivocal, YES! I believe that world history will write Mr. Assange as a
hero in the truest sense. He should be given a medal; and, certainly, since mr.
b*** s*** wobama undeservingly got a ‘nobel peace prize’ (what he does, not
what he says, ie., Afghanistan, etc.), who more than Julian Assange is
deserving of that and more? Cover-up / propaganda … thy name is fallen
america.]...
WIKILECTURE: 'HILLARY SHOULD
RESIGN' ‘…Hillary Clinton, Julian Assange said, "should resign."
Speaking over Skype from an undisclosed location on Tuesday, the WikiLeaks
founder was replying to a question by TIME managing editor Richard Stengel over
the diplomatic-cable dump that Assange's organization loosed on the world this
past weekend. Stengel had said the U.S. Secretary of State was looking like
"the fall guy" in the ensuing controversy, and had asked whether her
firing or resignation was an outcome that Assange wanted. "I don't think
it would make much of a difference either way," Assange said. "But
she should resign if it can be shown that she was responsible for ordering U.S.
diplomatic figures to engage in espionage in the United Nations, in violation
of the international covenants to which the U.S. has signed up. Yes, she should
resign over that."…’
CITY ON EDGE: Cash-Strapped Newark, new jersey Forced
To Lay Off 14% Of Police Force... [ From decades old
(1978-1985) direct personal experience with newark, n.j., the police are the
absolute last cuts that can be afforded to be made. Indeed, while walking
through Military Park (a sliver of a “park” - more a pedestrian
thoroughfare/cement walks) in newark, new jersey on the way to the bank during
lunch hour, I heard the clearly audible screams/cries of what turned out to be
an old lady on the ground with blood streaming from her mouth. I ran toward the
sound of the cries, the source of which I could not see because there were so
many people in and about this thoroughfare so as to block any vision of the
source of the cries. When I came to the woman, on the ground, blood streaming
from her mouth, I asked what happened, to which she responded she had been hit
in the mouth and knocked to the ground, her purse stolen/put inside her
shopping bag, and she pointed out the criminal casually now walking across the
main street. Nobody stopped to help her, many having passed her by. I slammed
the thug to the ground so hard that, in light of all the blood and confusion
(limbic system / adrenalin flow) I thought I had been stabbed (the blood was
from his elbows hitting the pavement so hard - no one helped / a crowd gathered
/ an undercover cop happened along). When I testified at the Grand Jury
Proceeding I made sure his threat on my life was set forth in prima facie
fashion so as to maximize the DA’s position with both felonies ( he went to
prison – pled out ). The other case I wrote about here ( This was included on
my website in the Psychology forum discussion of ‘bystander effect’ / diffusion
of responsibility. ) - Having had occasion to have run down a mugger in newark,
n.j. who apparently had followed a girl from the bank on her way to the bursar
to pay tuition, though in pretty good shape, I was astounded by how totally
exhausting such a pursuit was, how much like rubber my arms were when I traded
punches with the perpetrator, and truth be told, if I had a flashlight on my
belt, I have little doubt that I would have probably used it to subdue the
perp. The girl was not that seriously injured, did get her pocketbook and
tuition back, and the criminal went to jail. The other thing about such a
pursuit that amazed me was that no one else assisted the girl or me despite
being in a position to do so). (Other newark / new jersey and new york, n.y.
metro, viz., ie., connecticut, and of course, d.c., d.c. metro, viz., ie.,
virginia experience … corrupt federal judges as maryanne trump barry, sam
alito, shiff, matz (california), hall, underhill, dorsey, etc.. Defacto
bankrupt america’s so-called system is pervasively corrupt and broken (AP) Abolish the corrupt, costly, economically
wasteful lifetime extravagantly appointed federal courts - see RICO case http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) ]
Nation's '2nd Most Dangerous City' (camden, new
jersey) To Lay Off Nearly Half Of Police Force...
Chicagoland: Vandals torch Christmas charity van...
Businessman
gets harsh prison term (Washington Post) [ Come on! Quality of justice
concerns by pervasively corrupt / defacto bankrupt america (I’ve seen this
first hand and have sworn under penalty of perjury to the readily discernible
corruption in the ‘so-called judicial process’ / american illegal system; and
Orwellian britain / european illegal systems little better as toadies to the
criminal americans)? Don’t make me laugh? The u.s. illegal system is a cruel
joke! What parallel universe / fantasy land are they living in? ] A Moscow judge's decision to impose the
harshest possible penalty on Russian oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky signaled
that Prime Minister Vladimir Putin intends to keep a firm grip on power and is
unwilling to bend to American and European concerns about the quality of
Russian justice.
October 15, 2010 (*see
infra)
Steven M. Martinez, Assistant Director In Charge
Federal Bureau of Investigation, USDOJ
11000 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 1700
Los Angeles, CA 90024
Dear Sir:
I enclose herewith 3
copies of the within DVD rom autorun disk (which will open in your computer’s
browser) as per your office’s request as made this day (the disk and contents
have been scanned by Avast, McAfee, and Norton which I’ve installed on my
computer to prevent viral attacks / infection and are without threat). I also
include 1 copy of the DVD as filed with the subject court as referenced therein
(which files are also included on the aforesaid 3 disks in a separate folder
named ‘112208opocoan’). The (civil) RICO action (as you’re aware, the RICO Act
is a criminal statute which provides a civil remedy, including treble damages
and attorney fees, as an incentive for private prosecution of said claims
probably owing to the fact that the USDOJ seems somewhat overwhelmed and in
need of such assistance given the seriousness and prevalence of said violations
of law which have a corrupting influence on the process, and which corruption
is pervasive). A grievance complaint against Coan was also filed concurrently
with the subject action and held in abeyance pending resolution of the action
which was illegally dismissed without any supporting law and in contravention
of the Order of The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge, USDC, District
Connecticut. The files below the horizontal rule are the referenced documents as
filed. (Owing to the damage to the financial interests of both the U.S. and the
District of Congresswoman Roybal-Allard, viz., Los Angeles, the
Qui Tam provisions of the Federal
False Claims Act probably would apply and I would absent resolution seek to
refer the within to a firm with expertise in that area of the law with which I
am not familiar).
The document in 5 pages under penalty of
perjury I was asked to forward to the FBI office in New Haven is probably the
best and most concise summary of the case
RICO Summary to FBI Under Penalty
of Perjury at Their Request (5 pages) [
ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://albertpeia.com/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf ].
The correspondence I
received from the Congresswoman by way of email attachment (apparent but
typical problem with my mail) along with my response thereto is included on the
3 disks as fbicorrespondencereyes.htm . With regard to the
calls to the FBI’s LA and New Haven, CT offices: There was one call to the LA
office and I was referred to the Long Beach, CA office where I personally met
with FBI Agent Jeff Hayes to whom I gave probative evidentiary documents of the
money laundering which he confirmed as indicative of same (he was transferred
from said office within approximately a month of said meeting and his location
was not disclosed to me upon inquiry). The matter was assigned to FBI Agent Ron
Barndollar and we remained in touch for in excess of a decade until he abruptly
retired (our last conversation prior to his retirement related to the case and
parenthetically, Rudy Giuliani whose father I stated had been an enforcer for
the mob to which he registered disbelief and requested I prove it, which I did
– he served 12 years in prison, aggravated assault/manslaughter? – and no,
there is no Chinese wall of separation – Andrew Maloney’s the one that
prosecuted gotti).
In contradistinction
to the statement in said correspondence, there is a plethora of information
including evidence supporting the claims set forth in the RICO VERIFIED COMPLAINT (see infra). Such includes and as set
forth in the case, inter alia,
There is applicable insurance / surety coverage and neither LA, nor
creditors, nor I should continue to have been damaged by this brazened corrupt
and illegal scenario, which should be resolved in accordance with the
meaningful rules of law apposite thereto.
Sincerely,
Albert L. Peia
611 E. 5th Street, #404
Los Angeles, CA 90013
(213) 219-**** (cell phone)
(213) 622-3745 (listed land line but there are unresolved problems with
the line, computer connection may be the reason but I hesitate to chance
greater non-performance / worsening by their ‘fix’ so cell phone best for
contact).
----------
*The foregoing and as
indicated therein was previously send 9-14-10 but delivery confirmation was
flawed as set forth below and my inquiries to the u.s. postal service rebuffed
(I believe tampered with inasmuch as your office could not locate same). This cover
letter (9-13-10) is on the 3 disks with navigable hyperlinks to the subject
files for ease of reference, including the files in the RICO action as
indicated. (10-15-10) I spoke with Rose, FBI, ADIC Secretary, who indicates
once again that your office has not received the aforesaid and which can
reasonably be presumed to have been tampered with, and hence, a violation of
the federal statute concerning same. ]
-----
Former
president convicted of rape (Washington Post) [ Between the orgies, war crimes, assassinations, etc., what a
bunch of sick perverts, criminals the israeli operatives / powers that be and
their friends are; see, ie., Victor Ostrovsky Mossad
ebook download in PDF format September: Victor Ostrovsky, a former Mossad
trainee, publishes his book By Way of Deception ... Israel's Mossad has regularly
faked Australian passports for its. spies,
… 1 http://khup.com/keyword/victor-ostrovsky-mossad-by-way-of-deception.html 2 http://khup.com/keyword/page-2/victor-ostrovsky-mossad-by-way-of-deception.html 3 http://khup.com/keyword/page-3/victor-ostrovsky-mossad-by-way-of-deception.html ]
An Israeli court finds former president Moshe Katsav guilty of rape,
indecent assault and sexual harassment of female subordinates, the most serious
conviction of a former top official in Israel's history
Economic
forecasters see growth in 2011 (Washington Post) [ Growth indeed … in the deficits that is …
and in insurmountable fashion at that … which masks / obfuscates in the
short-term the weakness and structural shift in the worst economic terms
imaginable while benefiting the self-interested few (ie., frauds on wall
street, war profiteers, the ‘already campaigning for the next election’ pols,
etc.. The trade-off is far from commensurate.
The Economic Collapse
Dec 17, 2010
The financial
collapse that so many of us have been anticipating is seemingly closer then
ever. Over the past several weeks, there have been a host of ominous
signs for the U.S. economy. Yields on U.S. Treasuries have moved up
rapidly and Moody’s is publicly warning that it may have to cut the rating on
U.S. government debt soon. Mortgage rates are also moving up
aggressively. The euro and the U.S. dollar both look incredibly
shaky. Jobs continue to be shipped out of the United States at a
blistering pace as our politicians stand by and do nothing. Confidence in
U.S. government debt around the globe continues to decline. State and
local governments that are drowning in debt across the United States are
savagely cutting back on even essential social services and are coming up with
increasingly “creative” ways of getting more money out of all of us.
Meanwhile, tremor after tremor continues to strike the world financial
system. So does this mean that we have almost reached a tipping
point? Is the world on the verge of a major financial collapse?
Let’s hope
not, but with each passing week the financial news just seems to get eve
worse. Not only is U.S. government debt spinning wildly toward a breaking
point, but many U.S. states (such as California) are in such horrific financial
condition that they are beginning to resemble banana republics.
But it is not
just the United States that is in trouble. Nightmarish debt problems in
Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Belgium and several other European
nations threaten to crash the euro at any time. In fact, many economists
are now openly debating which will collapse first – the euro or the U.S.
dollar.
Sadly, this is
the inevitable result of constructing a global financial system on debt.
All debt bubbles eventually collapse. Currently we are living in the
biggest debt bubble in the history of the world, and when this one bursts it is
going to be a disaster of truly historic proportions.
So will we
reach a tipping point soon? Well, the following are 25 signs that the
financial collapse is rapidly getting closer….
#1 The official U.S. unemployment rate has not been
beneath 9 percent since
April 2009.
#2 According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there are
currently 6.3
million vacant homes in the United States that are either for sale or for
rent.
#3 It is being projected that the U.S. trade deficit
with China could hit 270 billion dollars
for the entire year of 2010.
#4 Back in 2000, 7.2 percent of blue collar workers
were either unemployed or underemployed. Today that figure is up
to 19.5 percent.
#5 The Chinese government has accumulated approximately
$2.65 trillion in
total foreign exchange reserves. They have drained this wealth from the
economies of other nations (such as the United States) and instead of
reinvesting all of it they are just sitting on much of it. This is
creating tremendous imbalances in the global economy.
#6 Since the year 2000, we have lost 10% of our middle class jobs. In the
year 2000 there were approximately 72 million middle class jobs in the United
States but today there are only about 65 million middle class jobs.
#7 The United States now employs about the same number
of people in manufacturing as
it did back in 1940. Considering the fact that we had 132 million
people living in this country in 1940 and that we have well over 300 million
people living in this country today, that is a very sobering statistic.
#8 According to CoreLogic, U.S. housing prices have now
declined for
three months in a row.
#9 The average rate on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage soared
11 basis points just this past week. As mortgage rates continue to
push higher it is going to make it even more difficult for American families to
afford homes.
#10 22.5 percent of all residential mortgages in the
United States were in negative equity as of the end of the third quarter
of 2010.
#11 The U.S. monetary base has
more than doubled since the beginning of the most recent recession.
#12 U.S. Treasury yields have been rising steadily
during the 4th quarter of 2010 and
recently hit a six-month high.
#13 Incoming governor Jerry Brown is scrambling to find
$29 billion more to cut from the California state budget. The
following quote from Brown about the desperate condition of California
state finances is not going to do much to inspire confidence in California’s
financial situation around the globe….
“We’ve been living in fantasy land. It is much worse
than I thought. I’m shocked.”
#14
24.3
percent of the residents of El Centro, California are currently unemployed.
#15
The average home in Merced, California has declined in value by
63 percent over the past four years.
#16
Detroit Mayor Dave Bing has come up with a new way to save money. He
wants to cut 20
percent of Detroit off from essential social services such as road repairs,
police patrols, functioning street lights and garbage collection.
#17
The second most dangerous city in the United States – Camden, New Jersey – is
about to lay off about
half its police in a desperate attempt to save money.
#18
In 2010, 55
percent of Americans between the ages of 60 and 64 were in the labor
market. Ten years ago, that number was just 47 percent. More older
Americans than ever find that they have to keep working just to survive.
#19
Back in 1998, the United States had 25 percent of the world’s high-tech export
market and China had just 10 percent. Ten years later, the United States had
less than 15 percent and China’s share had soared to 20 percent.
#20
The U.S. government budget deficit increased to a whopping $150.4 billion last
month, which represented the biggest November budget deficit on record.
#21
The U.S. government is somehow going to have to roll over existing debt and finance
new debt that
is equivalent to 27.8 percent of GDP in 2011.
#22
The United States had been the leading consumer of energy on the globe for
about 100 years, but this past summer China took over the number one spot.
#23
According to an absolutely stunning new poll, 40 percent of all U.S. doctors plan to bail out of the
profession over the next three years.
#24
As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had been
unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over
6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.
#25
All over the United States, local governments have begun instituting “police
response fees”. For example, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has come up
with a plan under which a
fee of $365 would be charged if police are called to respond to an
automobile accident where no injuries are involved. If there are injuries
as a result of the crash that is going to cost extra.
Timid
Tuesday: Is it Safe? Davis
‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are
simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of
global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form
of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh)
is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut
$100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while
continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1%
each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool
all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT
THERE! ‘
5
More Themes for 2011 Suttmeir ‘5 themes for 2011 (6 more are on their way):
Tracking the US Capital Markets – US stocks are overvalued fundamentally and overbought
technically on both daily and weekly charts. The snow storm causes stocks
to drift lower and higher.
Here are my remaining themes for 2011 – Six through
Eleven (a continuation
of 1-5)
6.
QE2, the $600 billion program where the Federal Reserve buys long dated US
Treasury Securities has been a failure so far. The yield on the 10-Year was 2.334 when Fed Chief
Bernanke touted QE2 in October only to see the yield nearly 125 basis points
higher in December. The primary intent of QE2 was to lower longer-dated US
Treasury yields. Yields held this week’s value level at 3.494 again on
Wednesday. There is risk to 3.75 to 4.25 in 2011, but with or without this
weakness, the 10-Year yield will decline to 2.75 to 2.50 during 2011.
7.
Comex Gold has gone parabolic, and therefore you cannot predict how high gold
prices can climb. I do know that
corrections will be fierce and painful for those that buy strength instead of
weakness. The 2011 neutral zone is between $1350 and $1450.
8.
Nymex Crude Oil is headed back above $100 per barrel according to most experts.
I cannot rule that out for 2011, but
the downside is more significant given weekly closes below the $87 per barrel
area. If gasoline stays above $3.00 per gallon demand on Main Street will slow
down and will be a drag on economic growth and job creation.
9.
Problems among the PIIGS nations denominated in euros will trump problems at
the state level in the USA. This
will keep the euro versus the dollar in a trading range. We will begin
2011 with a quarterly pivot around 1.3150.
10.
US stocks show strong technical characteristics. The S&P 500 is above the 61.8% Fibonacci
Retracement of the decline from October 2007 to the low of March 2009 at
1228.74. Dow Theory had a Buy Signal in early November and another confirmation
in December. The Dow Industrial Average – I project downside to 9,375 in
the first half with a rebound to 11,500 in the second half. Strength above
11,500 will return to 11,500, and the 2011 close will be at or below 11,500.
11.ValuEngine.com
indicates that equity fundamental are not cheap. Fifteen of sixteen sectors will begin 2011 overvalued
according to ValuEngine. The normal range for the percent undervalued or
overvalued stocks is 35% to 65%. We will begin 2011 close to the low end of the
range for undervalued stocks and towards the high end for overvalued stocks. Because
of the battle between the technicals and fundamentals, stocks will be
reversal-oriented in 2011 and be little changed year over year.
Tracking
the US Capital Markets – US stocks
are overvalued fundamentally and overbought technically on both daily and
weekly charts.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate
any positions within the next 72 hours.’
Struggling to the Finish Line: Dave's Daily ‘Most
economic news today (Jobless Claims, Chicago PMI and Home Sales) was, ahem,
"better than expected"; still, that didn't spark any determined
buying. Maybe without any POMO Thursday trading desks were running on empty.
2010 was an interesting year with lots of erratic behavior but a Fed
"stick save" in the end. Flash Crashes, elections, tax issues,
spending, unemployment, POMO and home prices were all center stage. Now you're
probably expecting some sort of forecast from your humble pundit, but alas, all
I can offer are three basic tenets to follow:
"The
best laid schemes of mice and men go often askew."
-- Robert
Burns
Or, if you
prefer: "The best laid plans of mice and men often go awry"
-- John
Steinbeck
"If
you must forecast, forecast often."
--Economist
Edgar Fiedler (ETF Digest Sacred Cow IX)
"Things
change"
-- ETF Digest
Sacred Cow X
You were
expecting Dow 20,000?!?
Volume
Thursday did improve a tad and breadth was flat… ‘
8 Contrarian Signs Against a 2011 Rally: My Thoughts Mansell ‘Recently my grandfather sent me an article from DailyFinance.com. The article was
listing 8 contrarian signs to suggest a stall in the current rally in
2011…Check out the article for more information on each of the points and links
to charts and etc. I just list them below and my opinions on each.
1)
Industrial production and capacity utilization have both stalled: This is a
fair argument and one that merits some consideration. My only comment would be
that just because it is slowing down does not necessarily bode poorly for the
economy (though "growth" may slow). It is my understanding that much
of the growth in the industrial production was in companies rebuilding
inventories that they depleted during the height of the recession. It should be
obvious that it would turn down at some point but I am curious to know if the
recent downturn has more than accounted for the loss of restocking inventories
in the equation.
2)
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has been in a downtrend since June: The BDI is down
because people the world over are worried about oversupply within the dry bulk
sector. This is also why a lot of the stocks within that sector trade at single
digit P/Es. My argument, though, is that low rates due to oversupply doesn't
suggest anything about the overall global economy and its recovery; it is just
the mismanagement of assets by industry executives.If we are making the
argument that the price being lower to ship goods is bad; here is an argument
for gradually raising rates.The way people are determining the oversupply is by
looking at outstanding orders; however, in 2010 around 50% of orders weren't
delivered due to cancellations by the companies who ordered them. I imagine a
similar number will occur in 2011 (source, slides 6 and 7). Also, I have read an
interview with an industry executive that suggests they have yet to see a
slowdown in demand, even with the increased number of ships AND the attempts of
China's government to slow its growth. The Chinese economy is still 10% larger
than it was last year, has grown substantially this year, and I think that
growth has taken out a large amount of the expected slack within the shipping
industry. India and other emerging markets are also supposed to be doing pretty
well, suggesting further demand there.Also, 21% of the current fleet (of
Panamax vessels) are over the age of 20 years old. I do not know what the
average scrap rate is for a panamax vessel but I know that currently there are
non that appear to be over 35 and few that fall into the 30-35 range. This
suggests that over the next 10 years we'll see the scrapping of 1 out of every
5 of the current fleet. While this clearly won't help short term rates, it does
suggest that oversupply won't last long and will begin improving over the next
five years or so.
3)
Interest rates are rising: Some have actually hailed the Fed's QE2
program as a success based on this; clearly investors are expecting more
inflation which is why rates are rising and this inflation expectation started
largely after the Fed began that program. However, I was never a fan of this
program and I don't know how inflation is supposed to help the 10% of people
who are unemployed who find their savings eaten away by rising prices AND
necessary living expenses.
4)
Oil and gasoline have risen to levels that some analysts see as negative for
growth: This makes sense; however, I do not know much about this. I
know gas prices were much higher while the economy was stalling in 2008, but we
didn't have the unemployment we have now and the economy WAS stalling so it
would be hard to know the effect of high gasoline prices. I think we've all
noticed its quick rise, though, and it will lead to less disposable income.
5) Property taxes and other state/local taxes are rising: I don't know the absolute amount of
dollars for each but I know that Congress cut the social security tax for
working individuals over the next year which should help them make up some of
these rising costs. Also, consumers have been deleveraging and are spending
less disposable income on credit, which means that this shouldn't be too
entirely unbearable but will weigh on consumer spending nonetheless.
6)
Retail investors are shunning the U.S. stocks: This to me suggests
that it is a time to buy. Especially since companies have the most cash on
balance sheets than they have had since the 1950s. As soon as the economy turns
around they'll produce returns on that cash or invest it abroad and earn those
returns now. Either way, you're currently getting more safety in cash, with
greater growth potential, for cheaper prices than available before and this is
bad because....?Also, aren't retail investors notorious for being wrong? There
are investment strategies based entirely around doing the exact opposite of
retail investors; while this doesn't mean we should dismiss their actions or
automatically do the opposite, I do think we should consider how much weight
we're placing on retail investors' behavior.
7)
Margin debt is at the highest levels since September 2008:
Very true, but as #6 says there are fewer dollars from investors in the market,
so this affects few individuals at very large levels and doesn't appear to be
pandemic for all US households.
8)
Investor sentiment remains at extremely high levels: What
investors? Money has been leaving the equity markets since 2008, as suggested
in #6, and we've seen net outflows in equity markets even during the
"recovery". So investors are saying they're excited about stocks
while pulling money out of equity markets and putting it into bond markets,
gold, and other investments? I think I'd rather follow the truth in people's
actions as opposed to following their words. I don't think
investor sentiment is REALLY that high if they are investing in other assets as
opposed to stocks.Lastly, I'm really disappointed that this article didn't
mention the ONE greatest threat that I believe is currently inflicting the
American economy and that is the continuous struggle in housing. Don't get me
wrong, I'm currently investing in REITs, but I think housing is far from the
bottom and that in 2011 and 2012 we'll see further atrophy in home prices.New
single home sales have fallen back to 283,000 in October 2010, which is a
little lower than the 300k -320k that we were seeing at the beginning of 2000
and a far cry from the near 600,000 we saw at the peak; however, even though
these numbers have normalized, other factors have not.In 2000, 300k homes for
sale represented about 4 months of supply which is normal. The 283,000 number
we've seen, while lower than the 300k in 2000, represents 8+ months of
inventory currently. On top of this, we have waves of foreclosures that are
hitting the market further exacerbating the problem. I think it's safe to say
that we probably have over a year's worth of housing inventory that will be
available for sale over the next year AND interest rates are rising, making it
more expensive to own. The only thing that can give a little to rebalance the
equation is home prices.On top of all of this, in 2011 and 2012 we'll start to
see another wave of ARMs resetting. I do not believe that we'll see a pandemic
of foreclosures because people are unable to afford the switch that we saw in
2008 and 2009, but I do think we'll see a lot of foreclosures because people
won't want to pay that much for houses that are worth 25%-30% less than what
they were when the agreed to the ARM. In fact, the scenario of people living
free in their homes for a year or more has become a relatively common
occurrence even now as they realize that foreclosures are so backed up that
they can live rent free for some time. I imagine that raising interest rates
will only make more people decided that it's better to default now on the
higher rates and rent or purchase a less expensive home....In the short term,
this could cause massive damage to the economy. Over the long term, it allows
for greater deleveraging and a normalization of the housing industry as opposed
to dragging this recovery out over a much longer period of time.Another downturn
in the housing industry, which I think is likely even as the rest of the
economy recovers, will likely be what makes 2011 and 2012 bleak.The only
solutions for making this situation better, faster, include: creating jobs,
speeding up the foreclosures process to get houses off the market and to
prevent voluntary default, coming up with effective ways to allow homeowners to
modify/refinance, and letting this monster run its course. Between the years
2000 and 2006, we more than doubled the amount of money in mortgages
outstanding in the US. That is incredible when you consider that mortgages are
15-30 year maturities yet we doubled the amount in 6 YEARS! It's going to take
the better part of a decade for us to recover from this and housing will be in
trouble for awhile…’
Baby
Boomers Start To Turn 65: 16 Statistics About The Coming Retirement Crisis That
Will Drop Your Jaw The American Dream | The moment when
the first Baby Boomers reach retirement age has arrived. ‘ … The following are
16 statistics about the coming retirement crisis that will drop your jaw…..
#1 Beginning January 1st, 2011 every single day more
than 10,000 Baby Boomers will reach the age of 65. That is going to keep
happening every single day for the next 19 years.
#2 According to one recent survey, 36 percent of
Americans say that they don’t
contribute anything at all to retirement savings.
#3 Most Baby Boomers do not have a traditional pension
plan because they have been going out of style over the past 30 years.
Just consider the following quote from Time
Magazine: The traditional pension plan is disappearing. In 1980, some
39 percent of private-sector workers had a pension that guaranteed a steady
payout during retirement. Today that number stands closer to 15 percent,
according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute in Washington, D.C.
#4 Over 30 percent of U.S. investors currently in their
sixties have more than 80
percent of their 401k invested in equities. So what happens if the
stock market crashes again?
#5 35%
of Americans already over the age of 65 rely almost entirely on
Social Security payments alone.
#6 According to another recent survey, 24%
of U.S. workers admit that they
have postponed their planned retirement age at least
once during the past year.
#7 Approximately
3 out of 4 Americans start claiming Social Security benefits the moment
they are eligible at age 62. Most are doing this out of necessity.
However, by claiming Social Security early they get locked in at a much lower
amount than if they would have waited.
#8 Pension consultant Girard Miller recently told
California’s Little Hoover Commission that state and local government bodies in
the state of California have $325
billion in combined unfunded pension liabilities. When you break that
down, it comes to $22,000 for every single working adult in California.
#9 According to a recent report from Stanford
University, California’s three biggest pension funds are as much as $500
billion short of meeting future retiree benefit obligations.
#10
It has been reported that the $33.7 billion Illinois Teachers
Retirement System is
61% underfunded and is on the verge of complete collapse.
#11 Robert Novy-Marx of the
University of Chicago and Joshua D. Rauh of Northwestern’s Kellogg School of
Management recently calculated the combined pension liability for all 50
U.S. states. What they found was that the 50 states are collectively
facing $5.17 trillion in pension obligations, but they only
have $1.94 trillion set aside in state pension funds. That is a
difference of 3.2
trillion dollars. So where in the world is all of that extra money
going to come from? Most of the states are already completely broke and
on the verge of bankruptcy.
#12
According to the Congressional Budget Office, the Social Security system will pay
out more in benefits than it receives in payroll taxes in 2010. That
was not supposed to happen until at least 2016. Sadly, in the years
ahead these “Social Security deficits” are scheduled to become absolutely
horrific as hordes of Baby Boomers start to retire.
#13
In 1950, each retiree’s Social Security benefit was paid for by 16
U.S. workers. In 2010, each retiree’s Social Security benefit
is paid for by approximately 3.3 U.S. workers. By 2025, it is
projected that
there will be approximately two U.S. workers for each retiree. How in
the world can the system possibly continue to function properly with numbers
like that?
#14
According to a
recent U.S. government report, soaring interest costs on
the U.S. national debt plus rapidly escalating spending on
entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare will absorb
approximately 92 cents of every single dollar of federal revenue by the
year 2019. That is before a single dollar is spent on anything
else.
#15
After analyzing Congressional Budget Office data, Boston University economics
professor Laurence J. Kotlikoff concluded that the U.S. government is facing a “fiscal
gap” of $202 trillion dollars. A big chunk of that is made up of
future obligations to Social Security and Medicare recipients.
#16
According to a recent AARP survey of Baby Boomers, 40
percent of them plan to work “until they drop”.
Companies all over America have been dropping their
pension plans in anticipation of the time when the Baby Boomers would
retire. 401k programs were supposed to be part of the answer, but if the
stock market crashes again, it is absolutely going to devastate the Baby
Boomers.
State and local governments are scrambling to find
ways to pay out all the benefits that they have been promising. Many
state and local governments will be forced into some very hard choices by the
hordes of Baby Boomers that will now be retiring.
Of course whenever a big financial crisis comes along
these days everyone looks to the federal government to fix the problem.
But the truth is that after fixing crisis after crisis the federal government
is flat broke …’
Constitution's
new starring role in House (Washington Post) [ Riiiiight!…Whew! That was a close one…we can all
rest easy now…and to think we were thinkin’ they were goin’ in the wrong
direction and sinkin’…for those skeptics who hail this as yet another desperate
and redundant gimmick … have no fear, the new congress is here. ]
‘…They will read the Constitution aloud…’
Roubini:
‘Housing Prices Can Only Move Down’ According to economist Nouriel Roubini,
the housing market is in a double dip. And negative Case-Shiller Home Price
numbers out today only confirm that unpleasant truth.
Housing
market forecast (Washington Post) Expert says
"house prices probably have another 20% to fall." And that may be a
"conservative estimate.’
The 10 Most Important Tax Tips Of 2010 Posted by Investopedia
It’s the end of the year, and while holiday baking may be top of mind, that
niggling little task of getting the year-end tax tasks done is still there,
bothering you over the scent of the fruitcake in the oven. The
following tips will give you some specifics so you can take care of taxes,
and then get back to your fun holiday activities.
IN
PICTURES: Top 10
Solutions For A Big Tax Bill
IN PICTURES: 6
Tax Credits That Anyone Can Claim
The Bottom Line
With taxes, you don’t know until you ask. You may be able to save much more
than you think you can just by making a few simple changes, or by paying for
expenses in December instead of January, February or March. It’s a little bit
of forethought that can make the tax bill much more bearable.
For the latest financial news, see Water
Cooler Finance: FBI Insider-Trading Bust.’
Army
edits its history of deadly battle of Wanat (Washington
Post) [ Come on! Does anyone really think they ever get a true story from the
u.s. gov’t et als about anything at all?
] Draft put majority of blame on top commanders, but final version's
focuses on lower-level leaders sparks anger among families of those killed.
A subtler tack to fight Afghan corruption?
(Washington Post) [ How
about a not so subtler tack to fight corruption starting right here in the u.s.
of a. where corruption and crime are pervasive and in fact, at the root of the
Afghanistan problems, from american reinvigorated heroin trade to bribery
attendant thereto to killing civilians, etc..
Defacto
Bankrupt, Meaningfully Lawless, War Criminal Nation america, the leader of
nations … in crime:
Though having but 5% of the world’s population, america can
boast 76% of the world’s serial killers, followed by Europe with England/UK
then Germany leading the way for the eu [excerpt, 6 minute video, Serial
Killers: Real Life Hannibal Lechters http://www.albertpeia.com/realifeamericaserialkillers.mpg (as is consistent with crime generally,
see infra)]. Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive
(defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of
the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern
emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed employees,
cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in this evolved
american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense ( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
) ]:
Rank |
|||
# 1 |
11,877,218 |
|
|
# 2 |
6,523,706 |
|
|
# 3 |
6,507,394 |
|
… ]
Wall
Street Is Laundering Drug Money And Getting Away With It Zach
Carter, … etc. … Drudgereport:
CLASSIFIED
NO MORE: USA RACES TO LIMIT WIKILEAKS DAMAGE
[Publishing the Wikileaks is the right thing to do; after all, one
cannot possibly look to even one rationally correct strategy, domestically,
globally, geopolitically that would justify continued hiding/cover-up of the
failed strategies, their genesis, flawed rationale, etc., which has cost this
nation and the world dearly] ...
WIKILEAKS:
We've been hit with 'mass distributed denial of service attack'...
MOST
EMBARRASSING, DAMAGING DISCLOSURE IN DECADES...
SENATORS:
PROSECUTE THE LEAKERS!
NYT
EXPLAINS: THE DECISION TO PUBLISH … [The NYT clearly did the right thing to
publish; after all, one cannot possibly look to even one rationally correct
strategy, domestically, globally, geopolitically that would justify continued
hiding/cover-up of the failed strategies, their genesis, flawed rationale,
etc., which has cost this nation and the world dearly]...
SKorea
says sound of artillery heard on island...
US,
SKorea start major naval drills...
China
issues warning...
DHS
SEIZES DOMAIN NAMES...
EU
Debt Crisis Escalates...
6
American soldiers killed in Afghanistan...
Next Debt
Crisis 'May Start in Washington'...
WIKILEAKS
TURNS ON OBAMA! … [ Like who hasn’t, and for good reason! Publishing
the Wikileaks is the right thing to do; after all, one cannot possibly look to
even one rationally correct strategy, domestically, globally, geopolitically
that would justify continued hiding/cover-up of the failed strategies, their
genesis, flawed rationale, etc., which has cost this nation and the world
dearly] ]
] Authorities are
investigating whether Julian Assange violated criminal laws, including possible
charges under the Espionage Act, sources say. Afghanistan: Gates: Progress has
'exceeded my expectations' (Post, December 8, 2010; 5:53 PM)
U.S. hurting peace chances by giving up on
israeli settlement freeze, analysts say (Post,
December 8, 2010; 11:00 PM)
In South Korea, Joint Chiefs chairman scolds
China for its 'tacit approval' of North's aggression (Post,
December 8, 2010; 11:01 PM)
Iran talks end with little sign of progress
(Post, December 8, 2010; 1:04 AM)
Rice, on 'The View,' defends Obama on
WikiLeaks (Post, December 8, 2010; 1:00 AM) (Washington Post) [ The problems in all these regions
are inextricably tied to the nation with insurmountable problems of its own and
own making. That nation quite obviously
is pervasively corrupt, meaningfully lawless, defacto bankrupt america (along
with such comparable enablers / allies as zionist israel, nato, etc.. How can
anyone believe anything they say, least of all gates who hails from
C(ottage)I(ndustries of)A(merica) based on lies, chaos, and conflict.]
Army
edits its history of deadly battle of Wanat (Washington
Post) [ Come on! Does anyone really think they ever get a true story from the
u.s. gov’t et als about anything at all?
] Draft put majority of blame on top commanders, but final version's
focuses on lower-level leaders sparks anger among families of those killed.
A subtler tack to fight Afghan corruption?
(Washington Post) [ How
about a not so subtler tack to fight corruption starting right here in the u.s.
of a. where corruption and crime are pervasive and in fact, at the root of the
Afghanistan problems, from american reinvigorated heroin trade to bribery
attendant thereto to killing civilians, etc..
Defacto
Bankrupt, Meaningfully Lawless, War Criminal Nation america, the leader of
nations … in crime:
Though having but 5% of the world’s population, america can
boast 76% of the world’s serial killers, followed by Europe with England/UK
then Germany leading the way for the eu [excerpt, 6 minute video, Serial
Killers: Real Life Hannibal Lechters http://www.albertpeia.com/realifeamericaserialkillers.mpg (as is consistent with crime generally,
see infra)]. Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive
(defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of the
world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern emerging
here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed employees, cia,
all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in this evolved
american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense ( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
) ]:
Rank |
|||
# 1 |
11,877,218 |
|
|
# 2 |
6,523,706 |
|
|
# 3 |
6,507,394 |
|
… ]
Wall
Street Is Laundering Drug Money And Getting Away With It Zach
Carter, … etc. … Drudgereport:
CLASSIFIED NO MORE: USA RACES
TO LIMIT WIKILEAKS DAMAGE [Publishing
the Wikileaks is the right thing to do; after all, one cannot possibly look to
even one rationally correct strategy, domestically, globally, geopolitically
that would justify continued hiding/cover-up of the failed strategies, their
genesis, flawed rationale, etc., which has cost this nation and the world
dearly] ...
WIKILEAKS: We've been hit
with 'mass distributed denial of service attack'...
MOST EMBARRASSING, DAMAGING
DISCLOSURE IN DECADES...
SENATORS: PROSECUTE THE
LEAKERS!
NYT EXPLAINS: THE DECISION TO
PUBLISH … [The NYT clearly did the right thing to publish; after all, one
cannot possibly look to even one rationally correct strategy, domestically,
globally, geopolitically that would justify continued hiding/cover-up of the
failed strategies, their genesis, flawed rationale, etc., which has cost this
nation and the world dearly]...
SKorea says sound of
artillery heard on island...
US, SKorea start major naval
drills...
China issues warning...
DHS SEIZES DOMAIN NAMES...
EU Debt Crisis Escalates...
6 American soldiers killed in
Afghanistan...
Next Debt Crisis 'May Start in Washington'...
WIKILEAKS TURNS ON OBAMA!
… [ Like who hasn’t, and for good reason! Publishing the Wikileaks is the right
thing to do; after all, one cannot possibly look to even one rationally correct
strategy, domestically, globally, geopolitically that would justify continued
hiding/cover-up of the failed strategies, their genesis, flawed rationale,
etc., which has cost this nation and the world dearly] ]
] Authorities are
investigating whether Julian Assange violated criminal laws, including possible
charges under the Espionage Act, sources say. Afghanistan: Gates: Progress has
'exceeded my expectations' (Post, December 8, 2010; 5:53 PM)
U.S. hurting peace chances by giving up on
israeli settlement freeze, analysts say (Post,
December 8, 2010; 11:00 PM)
In South Korea, Joint Chiefs chairman scolds
China for its 'tacit approval' of North's aggression (Post,
December 8, 2010; 11:01 PM)
Iran talks end with little sign of progress
(Post, December 8, 2010; 1:04 AM)
Rice, on 'The View,' defends Obama on
WikiLeaks (Post, December 8, 2010; 1:00 AM) (Washington Post) [ The problems in all these regions
are inextricably tied to the nation with insurmountable problems of its own and
own making. That nation quite obviously
is pervasively corrupt, meaningfully lawless, defacto bankrupt america (along
with such comparable enablers / allies as zionist israel, nato, etc.. How can
anyone believe anything they say, least of all gates who hails from
C(ottage)I(ndustries of)A(merica) based on lies, chaos, and conflict.]
5
Economic Themes for 2011 Suttmeier
‘5 themes for 2011 (6 more are on their way):
Tracking the US Capital Markets – US stocks are overvalued fundamentally and overbought
technically on both daily and weekly charts. The snow storm causes stocks
to drift lower and higher.
The Yield on the 10-Year Note (3.345) – Tested this week’s value level at 3.494 with today’s
risky level at 3.306.
Comex Gold ($1384.2) – The 50-day at $1372.1 held at the low on Monday with
this week’s risky level at $1401.2.
Nymex Crude Oil ($90.79) – Reached a new high for the year at $91.88, shy of
this week’s risky level at $93.28. Support is the 21-day simple moving average
at $88.24.
The Euro (1.3163) – My weekly value level is 1.2906 with 200-day simple
moving average at 1.3087 and quarterly pivot at 1.3318, which goes away at the
end of the year.
The Dow Industrial Average (11,555) – Remains extremely overbought on both daily and weekly
charts. The 21-day simple moving average is 11,384 with a daily pivot at 11,569
and this week’s risky level at 11,629.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate
any positions within the next 72 hours.
Market
Crash on 12/31/10? Technical indicators suggest market collapse may begin
by December 31st Why
Stocks Could Collapse...Beginning as Soon as December 31, 2010!
The Fed has propped up the equity markets for
months ... but that could soon come to a
disastrous end! Dennis Slothower is one of the world’s leading technical analysts.
He’s one of the few advisors whose readers completely avoided ALL losses during
the disaster that was 2008. And now he’s issuing another dire warning. His
technical indicators suggest that the market manipulation we’ve seen over the
last several months is about to come to an end…and that means thousands of
investors are about to get clobbered. This correction could begin as soon
as December 31st– so it’s important that you
take action now to prepare yourself. Click on the link below for immediate
access to Dennis Slothower’s latest report, which will explain – in plain
English – just how Dennis saw the collapse of 2008 coming…and how he’ll help
you avoid disaster in the weeks ahead.
http://www.stealthstocksonline.com/reports/FreeReport4StealthStocks.pdf
What's
Coming in 2011? More Gloom, But Not Necessarily Doom Krasting ‘Oh boy, is 2011
going to be an exciting year! Some things that I think might happen:
Have a great year!’
Toasting
the bad economy (Washington Post) [
As indeed the Russians should since they have much to celebrate. Russian
tiger team hails success yahoo
Moscow's
unprecedented military deal (Washington Post) ( France should be praised
inasmuch as a strong Russia, and conversely, a weak perpetual war, war
mongering, war crimes, pervasively corrupt nation, america is optimal for world
peace! ) Russia
is last in series of major powers to seal valuable deals with India (Washington Post) ( Bravo for India … a deal with
Russia is a deal with a future! ) ] Their country still endures the sting of
economic crisis, but Russians plan to drink up this holiday season. Applebaum: The
'decline of the West' (Washington Post) [ It really is true … and, no
leftist sympathizer with his book of the same name, none other than Buchanan
says as much. The reason of course is based on reality. From Orwellian Britain,
to failed nation-state the pervasively corrupt and defacto bankrupt
wobama-bushland america, to perpetual war ‘me-toos’ (ie., nato allies, war
crimes nations israel, u.s., etc.), their frauds (wall street, etc.) protected,
laws meaningless(see RICO
case http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) , their ruthless suppression subtle, hidden,
but odious as never before in their respective histories, the west at best has
become that ‘distinction without significant difference’ and heading to worse
than can be imagined. Of course they’ll lay blame to something other than the
huge frauds / wealth transfers that have plundered the nation. Indeed, one
could even cogently argue that said plundering gave rise to the flawed, failed
communism lie in the first instance. Yet, Russia, a great nation with a rich
history is not a communist nation, did not violently suppress the people as
they shirked that communist yoke / albatross, is not as defacto bankrupt,
meaningfully lawless, pervasively corrupt america engaging in perpetual wars of
destruction to persons and property, and with a great leader of historical
dimension in Putin is a far more rational choice than the bankrupt west on all
levels. As for communist china, it has
truly been a self-defeating, self-destructive creation of the west out of greed
which is in no short supply in the west.
PREVIOUS:
Wikileaks
founder freed on bail (Washington
Post) [ ‘… Moore (correctly) asserts
that Assange
is under attack solely because he had the courage to expose American war
crimes. Moore writes:
We
were taken to war in Iraq on a lie. Hundreds of thousands are now dead. Just
imagine if the men who planned this war crime back in 2002 had had a WikiLeaks
to deal with. They might not have been able to pull it off. The only reason
they thought they could get away with it was because they had a guaranteed
cloak of secrecy....
So
why is WikiLeaks, after performing such an important public service, under such
vicious attack? Because they have outed and embarrassed those who have covered
up the truth…’
CLINTON BODY COUNT
By: Ether Zone
Staff
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored A viral You Tube upload of
one of Alex Jones’ most popular feature films ‘The Obama Deception’ has been
censored following a spur of the moment campaign to elevate the movie’s title
to the top of the major internet search engines. In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
CLINTON BODY COUNT
By: Ether Zone
Staff
Here is the latest body
count that we have. All of these people have been connected with the Clintons
in some form or another. We have not included any deaths that could not be
verified or connected to the Clinton scandals. All deaths are listed
chronologically by date. This list is current and accurate to the best of our
knowledge as of January 13, 1999 August 1, 2000. (see complete list http://albertpeia.com/bodycount.htm )
Susan Coleman: Rumors were circulating in Arkansas of an affair
with Bill Clinton. She was found dead with a gunshot wound to the head at 7 1/2
months pregnant. Death was an apparent suicide.
Kevin Ives & Don Henry: Initial cause of death was reported to be the result
of falling asleep on a railroad track in Arkansas on August 23, 1987. This
ruling was reported by the State medical examiner Fahmy Malak. Later it was
determined that Kevin died from a crushed skull prior to being placed on the
tracks. Don had been stabbed in the back. Rumors indicate that they might have
stumbled upon a Mena drug operation.
Paul Olson: A Federal witness in investigations to drug money
corruption in Chicago politics, Paul had just finished 2 days of FBI interviews
when his plane ride home crashed, killing Paul and 130 others on Sept 8 1994.
The Sept. 15, 1994 Tempe Tribune newspaper reported that the FBI suspected that
a bomb had brought down the airplane.
Calvin Walraven: 24 year on Walraven was a key witness against Jocelyn
Elder's son's drug case. Walraven was found dead in his apartment with a
gunshot wound to the head. Tim Hover, a Little Rock police spokesman says no
foul play is suspected.
Alan G. Whicher: Oversaw Clinton's Secret Service detail. In October 1994
Whicher was transferred to the Secret Service field office in the Murrah
Building in Oklahoma City. Whatever warning was given to the BATF agents in
that building did not reach Alan Whicher, who died in the bomb blast of April
19th 1995.
Ron Brown:. The Commerce Secretary died on April 3, 1996, in an
Air Force jet carrying Brown and 34 others, including 14 business executives on
a trade mission to Croatia, crashed into a mountainside. The Air Force, in a
22-volume report issued in June of 1996, confirmed its initial judgment that
the crash resulted from pilot errors and faulty navigation equipment At the
time of Brown's death, Independent Counsel Daniel Pearson was seeking to
determine whether Brown had engaged in several sham financial transactions with
longtime business partner Nolanda Hill shortly before he became secretary of
commerce.
Charles Meissner: died: UNK - Following Ron Brown's death, John Huang was
placed on a Commerce Department contract that allowed him to retain his
security clearance by Charles Meissner. Shortly thereafter, Meissner died in
the crash of a small plane. He was an Assistant Secretary of Commerce
for International Economic Policy.
Barbara Wise: Wise a 14-year Commerce Department employee found dead and
partially naked in her office following a long weekend. She worked in the same
section as John Huang. Officially, she is said to have died of natural causes.
Mary C. Mahoney: 25, murdered at the Georgetown Starbuck's coffee bar over
the 4th of July '97 weekend. She was a former White House intern who worked
with John Huang. Apparently she knew Monica Lewinsky and her sexual encounters
with Bill Clinton. Although not verified, it has been said that Lewinsky told
Linda Tripp that she did not want to end up like Mahoney.
---------------------------------------------------------
] Gerson: He could have
taken quiet credit for the bipartisan tax deal; he chose otherwise. ]
10 Good Reasons To Be Worried About The Stock Market In
2011 , On Sunday December 26, 2010,
‘This is one of David Rosenberg's best pieces in awhile. In his latest daily
note, the Gluskin-Sheff economist
presents 10 reasons bulls should be worried about the stock market in 2011. And
it's not just that there are all kinds of negative headlines that are being
ignored, or that some economic datapoints aren't so hot, or that there is still
deflation. He makes a great argument that many factors, like the level of
bullishness, the relative valuation of stocks to bonds, and the unanimity in
thinking are worrisome. If anything, the list isn't taking into account
everything we see right now.
7.
BREADTH IS
DETERIORATING "As Bob Farrell is
clearly indicating in his work, momentum and market breadth have been
lacking. The number of stocks in the S&P 500 that are making
52-week highs is declining even though the index continues to make new 52-week
highs. "Source: Gluskin-Sheff
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/10-reasons-to-be-worried-about-the-stock-market-in-2011-2010-12#breadth-is-deteriorating-7#ixzz19G1KZX2Q
8.
VALUATIONS ARE
GETTING RICH "Stocks are overvalued at the present levels. For
December, the Shiller P/E ratio says stocks are now trading at a whopping 22.7
times earnings! In normal economic periods, the Shiller P/E is between 14
and 16 times earnings. Coming out of the bursting of a credit bubble, the
P/E ratio historically is 12. Coming out of a credit bubble of the
magnitude we just had, the P/E should be at single digits." Source: Gluskin-Sheff Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/10-reasons-to-be-worried-about-the-stock-market-in-2011-2010-12#valuations-are-getting-rich-8#ixzz19G23tGaQ
9.
HOUSING
IS STILL A HUGE THREAT "The potential for a significant down-leg in home
prices is being underestimated. The unsold existing inventory is still
80% above the historical norm, at 3.7 million. And that does not include
the ‘shadow’ foreclosed inventory. According to some superb research
conducted by the Dallas Fed, completing the mean-reversion process would entail
a further 23% decline in real home prices from here. In a near zero
percent inflation environment, that is one massive decline in nominal
terms. Prices may not hit their ultimate bottom until some point in 2015.
"Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/10-reasons-to-be-worried-about-the-stock-market-in-2011-2010-12#housing-is-still-a-huge-threat-9#ixzz19G2O6qNU
10. FISCAL STRAINS POSE A MAJOR THREAT "Arguably the most
understated, yet significant, issue facing both U.S. economy and U.S. markets
is the escalating fiscal strains at the state and local government levels, particularly
those jurisdictions with uncomfortably high pension liabilities. Have a
look at Alabama town shows the cost of neglecting a pension fund on the front
page of the NYT as well as Chapter 9 weighed in pension woes on page C1 on
WSJ." In the absence of Chapter 9 declarations or dramatic federal
aid, fixing the fiscal problems at lower levels of government is very likely
going to require some radical restraint, perhaps even breaking up existing
contracts for current retirees and tapping tax payers for additional revenues.
The story has some how become lost in all the excitement over the New Tax Deal
cobbled together between the White House and the lame duck Congress just a few
weeks ago." Source: Gluskin-Sheff Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/10-reasons-to-be-worried-about-the-stock-market-in-2011-2010-12#fiscal-strains-pose-a-major-threat-10#ixzz19G2gqTZP
THE
STOCK MARKET IS A BUBBLE Corson ‘The stock market is not bubbled up, you
say? Well then, let's take a serious macro macro look at the situation and
raise the matter as a question.How is it that from about 1950 (or 1965 at
least) up to about 1985, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stayed mostly in the
range from about 250 to 1200, when America was growing and doing pretty well on
average, and then, from about 1985 to the year 2000 or so -- a mere fifteen
years -- the Dow shot up to over 10,000, when middle class America realized
almost no income gains in real terms and the economy basically cycled from one
boom and bust cycle to the next?I argue we face one of the biggest bubbles of
all time. Let me explain and lets address the problem by focusing on the DJIA.
Here is what the DJIA has done since 1965. click to enlarge images
What
we observe is the DJIA has gone up about ten fold from 1965 to the year 2000 or
so. But what has industrial production in the US done during that time frame?
Industrial
production has increased to be sure, but only by a factor of three or so. It
certainly has not increased anything like the DJIA. But there is slippage, you
say. To be sure, we now generate more services, the time series data have been
smoothed and more importantly changed, etc., etc. But these explanations simply
don't bridge the gap.
Here is another one that doesn't either.
Back in the early-to-mid 1980s macro economists noted
that the risk premium being paid on equities over bonds was far higher than was
warranted by standard measures of individuals’ attitudes towards risk. In
short, the risk premium agents were being paid more than compensated them for
the risk. This was particularly surprising since over the long run, the risk on
equities was no different than that on bonds. As a result, there appeared to be
an arbitrage opportunity by shifting one’s portfolio from bonds to stocks and
holding the equities for a long time.
Do you believe that? We simply had a financial
epiphany and corrected. More importantly, do you want to believe that or
anything except we are bubbled up?As we know, Japan had this problem with its
stock market and here is what happened. But that can't happen here you say. I
ask, why not?
Even GDP and profits have not caught up with this
market. They too have only increased three and a half fold at best.
(The data in these charts are smoothed to conceal
recessions and ease presentation.)Why is it that we don't have a serious bubble
in our stock market now? Were our valuations all wrong for years on end
earlier, or do we have it wrong now? I think we have a problem and our heads
are in the sand… http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/243573-is-the-dow-showing-a-major-stock-market-bubble?source=yahoo
’
Why I See the Dow and Disposable Income Going Lower in 2011 ‘ Sharma ‘
“An economist is someone who sees something that works in practice and
wonders if it would work in theory.” - Ronald Reagan
The Dow crossed
11400 in November this year, as I had analyzed
and predicted in the beginning of this year at Seeking Alpha.
The Dow (and the
US Economy) might still go up for the first quarter of 2011. However, going
forward from the second quarter of 2011, my analysis points me towards a lower
Dow. Here are some of the factors:
Technical
Analysis:
I did a technical
analysis of the Dow’s historical data for my previous article - the Dow fell
more than 40% only on 2 other previous occasions before the great recession –
in 1938 and 1974. If we look at 2 years after the recovery started, the Dow had
grown, but if we look at the 3rd year after the recovery started, the Dow had
fallen from the year before. Since Recovery started in March 2009, I had
analyzed that the Dow would grow for 2 years after that. However, on the basis
of the same analysis, the Dow should start falling in the third year, after
March 2011.
Disposable
Incomes:
In one of my
previous articles, I talked about the importance of disposable income for the
US economy, and had used it to identify both the beginning and the end of last
recession. High disposable income is one of the important factors contributing
to the growth of the consumer based economy of the United States and is based
on the concept of high wages for services of individuals. High disposable
incomes help consumers purchase the excess inventory of cheap finished goods
and creates a demand for new types of goods and services. I do not believe high
disposable income has anything to do with productivity, it is simply a matter
of what society thinks is the value of a person’s work (for example, Artisans
and craftsmen migrated from Europe to the US in the last century as they could
get paid higher wages in the US - they mostly did the same work as before).
Higher wages do not necessarily increase inflation, as long as the supply of
available goods is higher than the demand.
The following
factors are now threatening to lower the disposable incomes again in 2011:
- Wages: Private sector wages are still restrained from
growing due to high unemployment, outsourcing, technology and globalization.
Though Public sector/Government employees were protected and were getting wage
increases, a recent federal government order has restrained that too. With 70%
of the US economy in the service sector, a wage increase/higher charge for
services is important for the economy to grow.
- Higher
Interest Rates: As money has been
moving out of the Bond markets, Interest Rates have again started going up and
would impact peoples' budgets.
- Oil prices: Oil prices have steadily been increasing in 2010 and
due to global demand, may continue in 2011 also.
-
Commodity Products : The
recent Onion crisis in India tells me that that there will be Inflation in food
and commodities due to demand from the developing countries, and will impact
disposable incomes in 2011.
High
Unemployment: Unemployment does not
seem to be going down due to the following factors:
- Housing
Market: The housing market is a large
employer in United States. Stable and increasing home prices helps build
consumer confidence and encourages people to spend and invest in renovating and
purchasing houses. Home Prices in the US bottomed out in the middle of 2009 and
grew in 2010 for some time. 2010 saw a brisk activity in homebuyers looking for
foreclosure properties for many months. However, the issue of Robo-signatures
at Banks and a non-clear government policy about the legal status of the
purchase of such foreclosure properties has now slowed that clearing process.
- Bank Lending
and New Projects: Though the Fed has
enabled the banks to give loans, banks do not find enough viable projects for
lending, and though there is a pent-up demand among homebuyers, the banks are
overcautious about that sector and are still not lending fast enough.
- Crisis in US
Municipalities and States: Something
unusual happened in the last decade: while government organizations continued
giving salary raises to employees, the salaries of private sector employees did
not grow much due to outsourcing, globalization and technology. An imbalance
has been created in the budgets of government organizations and the capacity of
private citizens to pay for these budgets. Municipalities and State governments
have been forced to either layoff government employees or use new laws and ways
to collect taxes from commercial organizations and individuals. These new taxes
and requirements has been further eroding the attractiveness of investing in
the United States by corporations and individuals.
- Absence of
new Technologies: Traditionally, the
US economy and employment rides on new technologies (the last one being the IT
and Telecom technologies of the 1990s). Except green technologies, which are
yet to add meaningfully to employment numbers, no other new technologies are on
the horizon. The new tax rules by government to encourage industry investment
in R&D would help, but it has a long gestation period.
On the positive side, the government has the capacity to intervene in some of these factors and the President looking for a second term might change things aggressively to grow the economy.’
Pope calls for end to conflicts – Pope expresses his hope for an end to
conflicts around the world, in his traditional Christmas message from the
Vatican. AP - Iraqi Christians celebrated
a somber Christmas in a Baghdad cathedral stained with dried blood, while the
Pope exhorted Chinese Catholics to stay loyal despite restrictions on them in a
...
Blunt,
and true. Kissinger had left Germany in August 1938 as a 15-year-old refugee,
three months before Kristallnacht. His granduncle, three aunts and other relatives
were murdered in the Holocaust.
So
it is appalling to hear Kissinger, an epic life later, telling Nixon on a
scratchy recording from March 1, 1973: "Let's face it: The emigration of
Jews from the Soviet Union is not an objective of American foreign policy. And
if they put Jews into gas chambers in the Soviet Union, it is not an American
concern. It may be a humanitarian concern."
Some
commentators have attempted to provide a psychological explanation for this
incident, having to do with the struggles of a Jew in an anti-Semitic White
House. But this effort is not necessary. Kissinger's words were not the
expression of a quirk but of an argument. In 1969, he had publicly declared:
"We will judge other countries, including communist countries, on the
basis of their actions, not on the basis of their domestic ideologies."
This is a commonplace assertion of a school of foreign policy called
"realism" -- that only the external behavior of regimes really
matters, that their internal conduct does not concern American interests.
It
is a view currently popular, even ascendant, among foreign-policy thinkers.
Kissinger was merely being unsentimental in its application. In response to the
recent release of the recording, Kissinger said his words "must be viewed
in the context of the time." That context was a debate over the
Jackson-Vanik Amendment of 1974. The Soviet government -- which both practiced
anti-Semitism and resented the brain drain of Jewish departures -- had imposed
heavy fines on émigrés. Sen. Henry Jackson and Rep. Charles Vanik, supported by
American Jewish groups, responded with legislation that linked normal trade
relations with the Soviet Union (and other "nonmarket" economies) to
the freedom to emigrate.
Kissinger
believed that detente with the Soviet Union was of overriding importance and
that human rights issues should only be raised quietly, on an unrelated
diplomatic track. "The Jewish community in this country, on that
issue," he told Nixon, "is behaving unconscionably. It's behaving
traitorously."
But
Jackson-Vanik turned out to be a pivot point in the Cold War. After an initial
drop in emigration, the legislation exerted two decades of pressure on Soviet
leaders, eventually resulting in higher emigration levels. It pressed one of
the West's most powerful ideological advantages against the Soviet Union by
demonstrating the weakness of a system that must build walls to keep its people
from fleeing. This emphasis on human rights inspired not only Jewish refuseniks
but other groups and nationalities that inhabited the Soviet prison.
Jackson-Vanik
was both a rejection of Kissinger's realism and a preview of Reaganism. It
asserted that oppressive regimes are more likely to threaten their neighbors,
placing human rights nearer the center of American interests. It elevated
standards of human dignity that were direct threats to regimes premised on
their denial.
Henry
Kissinger is not a simple villain, because he is not a simple anything.
Complexity is his creed. In other circumstances, he was a friend to the state
of Israel. He skillfully navigated a difficult patch in the Cold War. In later
writings, he has recognized the role of idealism in sustaining American global
engagement.
This
37-year-old quote does not characterize an entire career. But it illustrates
the narrowness of foreign policy realism. It has a sadly limited view of power,
discounting American ideological advantages in global ideological struggles.
Realists often hold a simplistic view of great-power relations, asserting that
any humanitarian pressure on Russia or China will cause the whole edifice of
global order to crumble. This precludes the possibility of a mature
relationship with other nations in which America both stands for its values and
pursues common interests.
And
from this historical episode, it is clear that repeated doses of foreign policy
realism can deaden the conscience. In President Nixon's office, a lack of human
sentiment was viewed as proof of mental toughness -- an atmosphere that
diminished the office itself. Realists are often dismissive of Manichean
distinctions between good and evil, light and darkness. But in the world beyond
good and evil, some may be lightly consigned to the gas chambers.
MICHAEL GERSON is a Washington Post columnist ([email protected]).
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored A viral You Tube upload of
one of Alex Jones’ most popular feature films ‘The Obama Deception’ has been
censored following a spur of the moment campaign to elevate the movie’s title
to the top of the major internet search engines. In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
3 Investment Traps for 2011 , On Thursday December 23, 2010, ‘It's
the end of the year and Wall Street is busy selling their New Year forecasts.
According to 10 strategists and investment managers polled by Barron's, there's
no cloud in the sky. The future's looking bright.If you've followed Wall Street
forecasts for a few years, you must have discerned a pattern: Forecasts are
always rosy. If Wall Street analysts were meteorologists, their outlook would
always be 'sunny' unless it is actually raining.Therein lies the problem; Wall
Street never sees hard rain coming and only offers an umbrella after investors
have gotten trenched. The purpose of this article is to provide an out of the
box forecast with analysis you won't hear on the Street.
Insiders vs. Analysts
Analysts have their optimistic disposition implanted by the companies
they cover. Corporate managers have every incentive to stay positive for as
long as they can. Ironically, as CEOs project record high earnings, insider
selling has picked up as Investors Intelligence reports that: 'there was a
sharp acceleration in the pace of insider selling over the last week, as if
they suddenly all received word that the index highs would end.' Who would you
rather believe - analysts (and their sources) with an agenda or the action of
insiders with skin in the game? Something doesn't seem right if insiders want
you to do as they say but not as they do.
Unbridled Enthusiasm
Mark Twain said that: 'When I find myself on the side of the majority,
I know it's time to find a new place to side.' The majority of investors (and
analysts) now believe in rising stock prices. Sentiment gauges have recorded
readings not registered since the 2007 all-time highs, or before the May 'Flash
Crash.' This is usually a sign of a market that's getting ready to roll over.
Trap #1
This brings us to the first investment trap for 2011 - equities. After
rallying more than 85%, the major indexes a la Dow (DJI: ^DJI), S&P (SNP:
^GSPC) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) are simply overbought, over loved and
overvalued. This doesn't mean that they have to crumble tomorrow, but NOW is
the time to think about protection. In each of the past three years, January
trading has delivered a surprise shot of reality. Don't be surprised if it
happens again in 2011. Sectors with the biggest gains include retail (NYSEArca:
XRT
- News),
consumer discretionary (NYSEArca: XLY - News),
materials (NYSEArca: XLB - News),
and technology and these are also the most vulnerable to correction. Even
though it defies Wall Street's approach of linear extrapolation, sectors that
do well one year, rarely top the list the following year. It would make sense
to either buy put protection - which is historically cheap due to a low VIX -
or set mental stop-loss safety levels to avoid suffering through a painful
correction. In an effort to keep this article brief, we won't delve into the
Europe crisis. One of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter's predictions for 2010
was an increase in sovereign debt defaults. The Europe crisis will be with us
for a while and will turn into a big drag for developed markets (NYSEArca: EFA
- News)
eventually.
Trap #2
A rush for tax-free yield drove investors into municipal bonds.
Chasing yields can be a pricey mistake. If you plot dividend yields against
stock prices over the past 100 years, you'll quickly notice that periods of low
yields are generally a good time to sell, not buy stocks. The muni bond market
has been an obvious, but ignored, house of cards. California is nearly bankrupt
and every other state or municipality has seen their tax revenue dwindle.
Loaning money to municipalities is like giving a car loan to someone who just
lost their job. The default risk is high. On August 26, the very day Treasuries
and muni bonds topped - the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter told its subscribers
to get out of muni bonds, corporate bonds and Treasuries. Prices for bonds have
tumbled since and the danger isn't over. The three trillion muni bond market is
in serious danger. Now is the time to worry about return of your money, not
return on your money.
Trap #3
Not all is as it seems and if you put your trust in the Fed, you may
soon be disappointed. Quantitative easing in general, and QE2 in
particular, was supposed to stimulate the economy, increase inflation and
the money supply.[chart] As the chart above shows, it didn't do any of the
above. QE2 also was intended to lower interest rates to increase lending and
make mortgages more affordable. The chart below shows what the interest of the
10-Yr Treasury has done since QE2 was launched.[chart]The Fed is treating the
previous indulgence in debt by taking on even more debt. This is like taking
more heroin to kick a drug addiction. It will keep you functioning for a while,
but eventually your system will shut down. The only chance of success is to
detox.
The Minefield Looks Pretty
To sum up, we are looking at a minefield covered by a beautiful
blanket of flowers. The Fed - although it's failed to jolt the economy - has
succeeded in inflating stocks (NYSEArca: TMW
- News)
and commodities. It has served as fertilizer for fake growth.But sentiment is
indicative of a market ready to roll over. Similar sentiment readings and
warnings by the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter in December 2008, January 2010,
and April 2010 led to declines from 9 - 29%. Aside from Fed induced liquidity,
there's not been much reason to believe this time will be different.In terms of
breadth, we note that fewer than 80% of S&P 500 (NYSEArca: IVV
- News)
stocks are above their 50-day moving averages, as the index itself is moving
from one marginal new high to the next. There were also fewer new 52-week highs
in December than there were during the April highs.
Enjoy the Sight, Mind the Feel
Creeping up trends like the current one can go on for weeks. But take
a look at the price action leading to the April highs and it becomes clear that
such stair stepping up trends tend to end very abruptly and without
warning.That doesn't mean the market has to crumble tomorrow, but if you choose
to maneuver through trap-infested territory, it pays to be careful and protect
yourself.The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
provides important support/resistance levels that serve as an early warning
signal twice a week. The break of certain resistance levels could break the
bull's spirit and cause an April/May like air-pocket decline.
[video]
Trader Cautious for 2011at TheStreet.com (Thu 11:33AM EST)
[video]
Money Pouring Out of Equity Fundsat TheStreet.com (Thu 11:31AM
EST)
[video]
Claims Missing Seasonal Hiringat TheStreet.com (Thu 11:20AM EST)
YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]:
‘… There was plenty of data out ahead of the open, but none of it produced any
real reaction among premarket participants. Among the items, personal income
increased 0.3% while consumption increased 0.4%. The Briefing.com consensus
called for respective increases of 0.2% and 0.5%. Personal income in the prior
month had increased 0.4% while spending had increased 0.7% in the same time.
Durable goods orders for November fell 1.3%, which is worse than the 1.1%
decline that had been generally expected, but not as bad as the prior month's
3.1% drop. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders increased 2.4% in
November. They were widely expected to increase by just 0.8% after they fell
1.9% in the prior month. Initial jobless claims for the week ended December 18
were also out ahead of the open. They totaled 420,000, which is in step with
the 424,000 initial claims that had been expected and down slightly from the
tally of 423,000 that was recorded for the previous week. Continuing claims
came in 4.06 million, down about 100,000 from the prior week. Its steady
downtrend since summer is largely the result of fewer initial claims and the
expiration of unemployment benefits, rather than actual hiring. Even after
trade opened participants were largely unresponsive to the University of
Michigan's final December Consumer Sentiment Survey, which improved slightly to
a five-month best of 74.5, up from 74.2. New home sales were a bit
disappointing. They increase 5.5% in November to an annualized rate of 290,000,
but that was still a bit less than the rate of 300,000 that had been expected.
Many remain concerned that recent increases in the 10-year Treasury yield,
which is now near 3.40%, has put added pressure on housing demand…’
Arms
treaty's approval is another win for Obama (Washington
Post) [ This was a major victory for
Putin who wanted this … that’s why I was for it! ] The White House strategy to secure Senate passage of New START
proves successful, but GOP critics could hamper similar measures in the future.
Robertson's
Decriminalize pot remarks light up Internet (Washington Post) [ ]
Drudgereport: DEFICIT
HITS RECORD...
MINORITY
REPORT: Spielberg advising on rebranding Dems... [ Come on! You
can’t unring the bell on the damage they’ve done by particularly doing the
opposite of what they said, from perpetual war, to no prosecutions of the wall
street frauds now marked to anything as per criminal courtesy via FASB rule
change, etc.. They b*** s*** like their mascot, ‘wobama the b’ (for b*** s***);
not that the republicans are substantially different … they’re incompetent,
corrupt, etc... They’ve embraced the ‘history of decline and fall of
nation-states’. ]
TODAY:
Obama pledges 'singular focus' on economy...
ONE
YEAR AGO: 'Obama to focus hard on economy'...
TWO
YEARS AGO: Obama to put 'renewed focus' on economy...
US
press should fear being targeted: Assange...
BLOWOUT:
Government liabilities rose $2 trillion for year...
PEOPLE:
308,745,538
DEBT:
$13,868,461,000,000
STATE
OF THE NATION: Census shows slowing US growth...
GOP-leaning
states pick up seats in Congress...
NY, OH, IL, MA, NJ and PA lose seats...
FCC
Gives Government Power to Regulate Web...
Agency
splits along party lines...
DeMint
vows to reverse 'Internet takeover'...
AP:
TOP 10 STORIES OF 2010...
MOODY'S
May Cut US Rating on Tax Package...
New
spending bill totals $1.1 TRILLION!
Congress
Job Approval Rating Worst in GALLUP History...
FLASHBACK:
Obama Promised 5-Day, Public Review of Bills Before Signing; Signs Tax Bill
Within Hours of House Vote...
13 million get unexpected tax bill from 'tax credit'?
Pelosi
skips vote on tax bill, then shuns signing ceremony...
House
votes to extend gov't funding -- through Tuesday...
OBAMA
FALLS TO 40% APPROVE IN FOXNEWS POLL...
The FCC's Threat to Internet Freedom...
Dems
play politics with 'net neutrality' vote...
'Sweeping
new rules'...
REGULATE...
SHUT:
Music Web Sites Dispute Legality of Their Closing...
UK
ministers threaten: Censor web, or we will legislate 'to protect children'...
Plan
to block all online porn...
Hugo
Chavez defends plan for web regulations...
Venezuela
tightens Internet regulation...
THEY'RE
COMING FOR THE INTERNET!
JULIUS
SEIZURE
$2
trillion debt crisis threatens to bring down 100 US cities...
States
face $140 billion in budget shortfalls...
32
states borrow billions from feds to cover unemployment benefits...
Friedman:
America the Stupid...
French
AAA Grade at Risk as Downgrades Sweep Europe...
Oil Heads
Toward $100...
Chavez
defends plan for Internet regulations...
UK
ministers threaten: Censor web, or we will legislate 'to protect children'...
The
FCC's Threat to Internet Freedom...
Dems
play politics with 'net neutrality' vote...
'Sweeping
new rules for the Internet'...
SKorea
detains Chinese fishermen...
Security
Council meets on tensions...
North
Threatens More Attacks...
...
says war would go nuclear
China
warns of escalating arms race...
'Don't ask' repeal moves toward law...
DREAM OVER: Senate Blocks Bill for Illegal Immigrants...
Budget
Brawl Looms in Congress...
Michelle
wears $2,500 purchased dress to Christmas concert...
Senate
Plans Weekend Votes on 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell,' Amnesty Bill...
Senator:
Gay ban tied to Russia treaty...
UN
PLANS INTERNET REGULATION [ Those
who can’t do … work at the u.n., in the u.s.; after all, for the first time in
human history, the internet has for the most part enabled an unfettered look at
the truth and truthful reasons for the unequivocally sad state of the world.
That a supposed world body should support and potentially facilitate the
encroachment upon such global communication is reason enough to dismantle such
an already discredited body which arbitrarily seeks enforcement of some
‘resolutions’ as to some but not others ( ie., israel, u.n. resolutions 242, 338,
etc., israeli and american war crimes, etc..) Raison d’tre … I don’t think
so! Quite the contrary! ]
Regulators
close banks in GA, FL, AR, MN... [ Regulators shutter 3 small banks in Ga., 1 each in
Fla., Ark., Minn.; 157 banks closed in 2010 ]
Payrolls Drop in 28 States, Joblessness Rises in 21...
Nevada rate to 14.3%...
Rhode Island City Nears Bankruptcy...
Ireland Debt Downgrade...
IMF chief worried about Europe domino effect...
Senate
clerks preparing to read 1,924-page spending bill on floor -- for 50 hours!...
Senator:
'There's No Way' To Read Entire Bill Before Vote...
KERRY:
'Why Would We Have To Read Something?'
McConnell
offers 1-page resolution in place of 1,924-page spending bill...
SHOWDOWN:
Gingrich Urges Fillibuster...
Biden
To GOP Opposition: 'Get Out Of The Way'...
Reid:
Earmarks are 'what we're supposed to do'...
Ban on Gitmo transfers vanishes...
Omnibus
bill loaded with goodies for abortion industry...
PRIORITIES:
House approves bill to make hybrids louder...
23%
Say USA Heading in Right Direction, Lowest Since Obama Took Office...
POLL:
Just 29% think Obama will be re-elected...
Is
America the sick man of the globe?
BUCHANAN:
Is this our America anymore?
UK
Red Cross Bans Christmas to Avoid Offending Muslims...
SALVATION
ARMY bell ringer caught stealing from kettle...
Deputies
suspended after getting into brawl at party...
2
women charged with robbing 74-year-old...
Hundreds
of gifts for kids stolen from 'Toys for Tots'...
Thousands
of dollars in donated toys ruined after skunk attack...
Grocery
prices grow by 1.5 times inflation rate...
Socialist
president plays host to capitalism...
REPORT:
Obama told lawmakers not passing tax deal could end presidency...
A
$48 billion earmark...
PAPER:
Year of bullying, bluff and bailouts leaves euro fighting for its life...
Reeling
from riots, Italy faces uncertainty...
Greek
anti-austerity strike turns violent...
VIDEO...
MORE
UNREST: 2011...
$575
million PER PAGE...
6,488
earmarks...
McConnell
fumes: 'No one has seen it'...
Reid threatens to keep Congress into next year...
Intelligence
Reports Offer Dim Views of Afghan War...
HOLBROOKE
LAST WORDS: STOP THIS WAR!
UPDATE:
RUSSIA TO USE CHINA CURRENCY IN TRADES...
UK
GRANTS ASSANGE BAIL; SWEDEN APPEALS...
Release
delayed...
Lawyer:
Secret Grand Jury Meeting Outside Washington on Leak...
CHRISTMAS CRIMES: Drive-By
Purse Snatcher Terrorizing Women In NJ...
2
women charged with robbing 74-year-old...
Hundreds
of gifts for kids stolen from 'Toys for Tots'...
Thousands
of dollars in donated toys ruined after skunk attack...
Copper
thieves burn down city's Christmas tree...
Burglar
steals family's gifts -- and its dog!
Grave
robbers steal 400 urns from cemetery...
'Grinch'
Steals Packages Off Doorsteps, Signs For Deliveries...
Home
Invaders Tie Up 12-Year-Old Boy, Take Video Games...
90-Year-Old
Man Put In Choke-Hold, Robbed Of $370...
'Tea
Party' anger simmers over backroom deal; Ramps up efforts...
2
Bank Failures Bring Year's Tally To 151...
COPS: Madoff's son hangs himself with dog collar in SoHo
apartment...
...gave mechanic $400 tip day before suicide
Madoff
Trustee Launches $19.6 Billion Lawsuit; 60 accused of participating in 'illegal
scheme'...
Pump
prices close in on average $3 a gallon...
FLASHBACK:
$1.81 when Obama took office...
BLOW
TO O: JUDGE RULES GOV'T CAN'T MANDATE CITIZENS BUY HEALTH CARE...
Cantor:
Direct Appeal to Supremes...
POLL:
Support For Obamacare Hits New Low...
Pelosi:
'Are You Serious?'
Obama: 'I'm itching for a fight'...
U
N C O N S T I T U T I O N A L
Barbara
Walters: 'This Guy (wobama) Has an Emotional Problem' [ Yes, it’s true,
babawawa … wobama has substantial mental problems which along with inherent
criminality are pervasive in america which also includes boner, and where were
you in discussing such, babawawa regarding psychopaths bush, clinton, etc., or
even former beau, senile greenspun ]...
DEFICIT
HITS RECORD...
Putin Slams West for Assange Arrest...
US
cable: Cuba to be insolvent within 2-3 years...
Assange
Lawyers Prepare for U.S. Spying Indictment...
Teen
Arrested in Hack Attacks...
Donations
to WIKILEAKS are Tax Deductible -- in Germany...
Anonymous
cyberwarriors stun experts...
Media
outlets may be probed over WikiLeaks stories, joe ‘zelig zionist incompetent
and corrupt‘ lieberman in Campaign To Trample The First Amendment claims Can the US government prosecute media outlets
that reported on the WikiLeaks cables? According to joe ‘zelig zionist
incompetent and corrupt‘ lieberman in
his Campaign To Trample The First Amendment, the answer is maybe.
Home
Values May Drop by $1.7 Trillion This Year...
UNEMPLOYMENT
WEEK: DOWN TO 421,000; REVISED UP LAST WEEK 438,000...
POLL:
Most Americans Say They’re Worse Off Under Obama...
F
O [Related: Olbermann:
Obama Is ‘God Damned Wrong’ ]
REVENGE
OF THE WIKIS!
Army
of hackers targets the Swedish government...
Take down
MASTERCARD site...
...VISA
PAYPAL...
AMAZON
braces for hactivist attack...
Palin
under cyber attack...
Assange's
'poison pill' file impossible to stop...
MOSCOW:
Give Assange Nobel Peace Prize...
SENATE REJECTS REPEAL OF DON'T ASK DON'T TELL...
House
Dems push through massive budget bill...
Final
House Race Decided; GOP Net Gain: 63 Seats...
Ron
Paul, Author of 'End the Fed,' to Lead Fed Oversight Panel...
Student
protesters in London turn violent over tuition hikes...
Thousands
try to break through police barricades at Houses of Parliament...
...attack car containing Prince Charles, Camilla...
Rolls
Royce hit with paint; rear window smashed...
US Treasuries hit by biggest sell-off since
LEHMAN...
Prices Plunge for 2nd Day on Deficit Fears...
Rattles investors...
Oil tipped to bubble over $100 barrel...
Food Stamp Rolls Continue to Rise...
SHOCK POLL: Americans Believe China Has Surpassed USA
in Economic Strength...
'U.S. fiscal health worse than Europe's'...
Sorkin: Palin TV show is 'snuff movie'... [ Yeah … ‘she’s really all that’ and worse …
I have great difficulty getting past the fact that she’s so incredibly dumb …
not just ‘nonintellectual’ … butt really dumb! ] ‘… Sorkin, writer of the recent Facebook movie The
Social Network, also accused the Fox News contributor of making a "snuff
film" after the latest episode of Sarah's Palin's Alaska featured the
politician going hunting with her father and shooting a caribou. He described
Palin as "deranged", a "witless bully" and a "phony
pioneer girl". He also said The Learning Channel, the US cable network,
"should be ashamed of itself" for broadcasting her "truly awful
reality show"…’
Senate convicts Clinton-appointed judge...
[ Come on! One way or another they’re almost all getting bribed; including the
initial lifetime appointment as alito, trump-barry, etc.. Abolish the
corrupt, costly, economically wasteful lifetime extravagantly appointed federal
courts (see RICO case http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) End those lifetime licenses to steel. ] In earlier hearings, two attorneys who once worked
with Porteous had testified that they gave him thousands of dollars in cash,
including about $2,000 stuffed in an envelope in 1999, just before Porteous
decided a major civil case in their client's favor.
Assange could face espionage trial in USA...
Palin under cyber attack...
1st Amendment issues...
Assange's 'poison pill' file impossible to stop...
WIKILEAKS: Stop Us? You'll Have to Shut Down Web...
Berkeley 'resolution' honoring leaker...
Scientologists outraged over spoof Christmas play... [ Hubbard was such a total fraud!
Scientologists are delusional! ]St. Petersburg, Florida – ‘A controversial holiday musical production is
set to open at American Stage Theatre in St. Petersburg. Photos: Pictures of
A Very Merry Unauthorized Children's Scientology Pageant "A
Very Merry Unauthorized Children's Scientology Pageant" is a musical play
designed for the holiday season, but this play will not focus on Jesus Christ,
but instead the story is about L. Ron Hubbard, the founder of the church Of
Scientology…’
NO BAIL...
Assange
'sabotaged condom' during one night stand...
Refused to wear one during another...
Stockholm police: Both women are victims...
INTERPOL WARRANT FOR NOT WEARING PROTECTION?
ASSANGE
UNDER ARREST:
'HE
DIDN'T WEAR A CONDOM'
Under
arrest, will Assange dump the Doomsday Files?
Assange:
Don't shoot messenger for revealing uncomfortable truths...
FLASHBACK:
HILLARY COMPLAINS GOVERNMENTS BLOCK FREE FLOW OF INFO ON INTERNET...
WIKILEAKS:
LIVE UPDATES...
FCC
push to regulate news draws fire...
Lieberman:
NYT may have committed crime by printing WIKILEAKS docs...
US
to Host World Press Freedom Day in 2011 … [ What a total travesty! The u.s. as
host … What a cruel joke! ] ...
OBAMA
RACES TO CUT TAXES BEFORE REPUBLICANS: 6.2% Social Security tax would drop to
4.2% for workers for one year... MORE
THE
NEW OBAMA!
SURPRISE TAX CUT
MOVE [ As with defacto bankrupt america
generally, more defacto bankrupt social security system, etc., are distinctions without significant
differences. ]
OIL
HITS $89...
Pump
prices hit 2-year high...
Schwarzenegger Declares Fiscal Emergency, Proposes $9.9 Billion In
Cuts...
Top
Democrats defect, join unified GOP...
WIKILEAKS'
Assange Will Release Encrypted Files If Arrested...
Cables
Reveal How US Manipulated Climate Accord...
Cable:
China Leaders Ordered Hacking on GOOGLE...
Meddling
by Neighbors Adds to Iraq's Woes...
Government
Workers Ordered Not to Read Cables...
Gingrich:
Leaks Show Admin 'Shallow,' 'Amateurish'...
McConnell:
Assange a 'High-Tech Terrorist'...
List of facilities 'vital to US security' leaked...
Mirror
Sites Appear by the Hundreds...
Assange
Speaks...
Hillary
Jokes...
US
forced to shake up embassies around world...
THE
DOOMSDAY FILES
PAPER:
Wave goodbye to Internet freedom...
[ I’m absolutely astounded that the world is not profoundly grateful to Assange
et als for providing insight into the machinations and insanity of pervasively
corrupt, defacto bankrupt america, et als who wreaked havoc on the world as
they pillage, plunder, and destroy (lives, nations, etc.). ]
+39,000
JOBS IN NOVEMBER...
BOEHNER: Dem Leaders Should Stop Wasting Time on Tax
Hike Votes...
HALPERIN: Dems 'In Midst of Nervous Breakdown'...
Obama Makes Surprise Trip to Afghanistan...
Flies 7,000 miles -- talks to Karzai for 15 minutes on
phone!
Forgets the Coast Guard...
Leaves Biden behind to handle 'disappointing' jobs
report...
Reid, funded by casinos, pushes online gambling...
ABCNEWS accused of breaking embargo...
2010
death toll of US troops nears that of 2001-2008 combined...
OBAMA SPEECHWRITER JOKES ABOUT TSA GROPING: Allows
'defrocked priests to give back to society'...
US
Deficit-Cutting Plan Falls Short of Needed Votes...
UNEMPLOYMENT UP TO 9.8%
HILLARY: Secretary of State will be 'my last public
position'... ... PITCHE$ $IGNED DVD ON HOME $HOPPING NETWORK..
US TO BAILOUT EU
[ Riiiiight! Sounds like a plan! After all, in defacto bankrupt america money
does grow on trees … derivatively (pun intended) that is … you know … that ever
more worthless fiat paper currency … and ultimately, existentially,
philosophically, doesn’t paper come from trees … sure it does …so, no problemo
since money grows on trees. ]
BOMBSHELL: European banks took big slice of
Fed aid...
Hundreds of billions of dollars...
Fed reveals global extent of its backing...
]Funds went to stalwarts of
American industry including GE and Caterpillar and household-name companies
such as Verizon, new data show.
GEORGIA: HUNDREDS LINE UP IN COLD FOR HEAT HELP...
Assistance Funds Quickly Depleted...
'Almost like being in soup line during great
depression'...
VIDEO...
DELAYING TAX VOTE COULD 'CRASH
STOCK MARKET' STARTING 12/15 [ Come on! There’s no way to justify
the tax cut to the top 1% including the frauds on wall street … their threats
don’t hunt no more … the nation’s defacto bankrupt … see Davis, supra! ]
Chase Bank orders branch to remove Christmas tree...
Cyber attack forces WIKILEAKS to change web address...
Respected media outlets collaborate with
organization... [ Said
outlets and other disseminators and of course Wikileaks deserve accolades for
the advancement of first amendment liberties in the name of an informed global
body politick for all.]
UPDATE: Latest developments...
Foreign contractors hired Afghan 'dancing boys'...
Embassy cables portray Karzai as corrupt, erratic...
CIA drew up UN spying wishlist...
Assange speaks...
UPDATE: Latest WIKILEAKS developments...
Foreign contractors hired Afghan 'dancing boys'...
Embassy cables portray Karzai as corrupt, erratic...
CIA drew up UN spying wishlist...
SANTA CLAUSE: FED AID WENT TO COMPANIES, BANKS,
OFFSHORE...
SECRETLY BAILED OUT GE -- GE NEWS OUTLETS FAILED TO
REVEAL IN FED COVERAGE...
SANTA
CLAUSE: FORD, BMW, TOYOTA Took Secret Government Money......
Fed Created Conflicts in Improvising Financial System
Rescue...
Tax Breaks for Bailout Recipients Spark Debate...
MORE SECRETS: Fed Withholds Data for $885 Billion in
Loans...
RUSSIA TO HOST '18 WORLD CUP FINALS...
Qatar selected '22 host over USA, others...
'AMERICAN
PSYCHO' musical in works... [ I recommend the derivative films,
American Psycho and American Psycho 2,
for insight! ]
National Board of Review: SOCIAL NETWORK named best
film... [ National board of what? ‘Inception’ is by
far and away the ‘Best Film’ across the board, in all categories, and on the
list! ] LIST...
BANK OF AMERICA Becoming 'Bank of Asia' as
Revenue Increases 30% ...
RESET: PUTIN CRITICIZES USA OVER WIKILEAKS … [ Putin
deserves the greatest deference in matters of global concern in light of his greater
rationality; america’s self-serving accusations are merely envy and projection
/ displacement (in psychoanalytic terms) of america’s pervasively corrupt,
criminal, broken system which is a far cry in reality from defacto bankrupt
america’s propaganda.]...
REWARD: [ The payoff. Bribe complete! Next bribe
scenario … ] CITI to Hire Obama's Ex-Budget Chief Orszag...
FLASHBACK: Rubin and friends ride NY-DC shuttle...
ZUCKERMAN: Watching America's Decline and Fall [the moral authority of the West has
dramatically declined in the face of the financial crisis. It has revealed deep
fault lines within Western economies that have spread to the global economy. The majority of Western governments
are running fiscal deficits of 10 percent or more relative to
GDP, but it is increasingly clear that there will be no quick fixes, that big
government and fiscal deficits will not bring us back to the status quo ante.
Indeed, the tidal wave of red ink has meant that the leverage-led or
debt-led growth model is dead. Developed countries will be forced to deal with
their debt on every level, from the personal to the corporate to the sovereign.
Being able to borrow may have made people feel richer, but having to repay the
debt is certainly making them feel poorer, particularly since the unfunded
liabilities that many governments face from aging populations will have to be
paid for by a shrinking band of workers. (Ecoutez, mes amis!) Demography is destiny. As a result, there is a
burgeoning consensus that we are witnessing an inevitable rise of the East and
a decline of the West…( Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012). ) ]...
Interpol issues wanted notice for Julian
Assange [ They just can’t take the truth! ] ...
US cuts access to files [ Think about it. Really think
about it. Their policies are in the tank, along with the nation and the rest of
this world as a consequence. Don’t those so detrimentally affected (everyone)
have a right to know? I think in light of the global frauds, contrived
perpetual wars though defacto bankruptcy of this and other nations, pervasive
corruption and crime, failed policies domestically and geo-politically while
serving the very parochial interests of the self-interested few, the answer is
an unequivocal, YES! I believe that world history will write Mr. Assange as a
hero in the truest sense. He should be given a medal; and, certainly, since mr.
b*** s*** wobama undeservingly got a ‘nobel peace prize’ (what he does, not
what he says, ie., Afghanistan, etc.), who more than Julian Assange is
deserving of that and more? Cover-up / propaganda … thy name is fallen
america.]...
WIKILECTURE: 'HILLARY SHOULD
RESIGN' ‘…Hillary Clinton, Julian Assange said, "should resign."
Speaking over Skype from an undisclosed location on Tuesday, the WikiLeaks
founder was replying to a question by TIME managing editor Richard Stengel over
the diplomatic-cable dump that Assange's organization loosed on the world this
past weekend. Stengel had said the U.S. Secretary of State was looking like
"the fall guy" in the ensuing controversy, and had asked whether her firing
or resignation was an outcome that Assange wanted. "I don't think it would
make much of a difference either way," Assange said. "But she should
resign if it can be shown that she was responsible for ordering U.S. diplomatic
figures to engage in espionage in the United Nations, in violation of the
international covenants to which the U.S. has signed up. Yes, she should resign
over that."…’
CITY ON EDGE: Cash-Strapped Newark, new jersey Forced
To Lay Off 14% Of Police Force... [ From decades old
(1978-1985) direct personal experience with newark, n.j., the police are the
absolute last cuts that can be afforded to be made. Indeed, while walking through
Military Park (a sliver of a “park” - more a pedestrian thoroughfare/cement
walks) in newark, new jersey on the way to the bank during lunch hour, I heard
the clearly audible screams/cries of what turned out to be an old lady on the
ground with blood streaming from her mouth. I ran toward the sound of the
cries, the source of which I could not see because there were so many people in
and about this thoroughfare so as to block any vision of the source of the
cries. When I came to the woman, on the ground, blood streaming from her mouth,
I asked what happened, to which she responded she had been hit in the mouth and
knocked to the ground, her purse stolen/put inside her shopping bag, and she
pointed out the criminal casually now walking across the main street. Nobody
stopped to help her, many having passed her by. I slammed the thug to the
ground so hard that, in light of all the blood and confusion (limbic system /
adrenalin flow) I thought I had been stabbed (the blood was from his elbows
hitting the pavement so hard - no one helped / a crowd gathered / an undercover
cop happened along). When I testified at the Grand Jury Proceeding I made sure
his threat on my life was set forth in prima facie fashion so as to
maximize the DA’s position with both felonies ( he went to prison – pled out ).
The other case I wrote about here ( This was included on my website in the
Psychology forum discussion of ‘bystander effect’ / diffusion of
responsibility. ) - Having had occasion to have run down a mugger in newark, n.j.
who apparently had followed a girl from the bank on her way to the bursar to
pay tuition, though in pretty good shape, I was astounded by how totally
exhausting such a pursuit was, how much like rubber my arms were when I traded
punches with the perpetrator, and truth be told, if I had a flashlight on my
belt, I have little doubt that I would have probably used it to subdue the
perp. The girl was not that seriously injured, did get her pocketbook and
tuition back, and the criminal went to jail. The other thing about such a
pursuit that amazed me was that no one else assisted the girl or me despite
being in a position to do so). (Other newark / new jersey and new york, n.y.
metro, viz., ie., connecticut, and of course, d.c., d.c. metro, viz., ie.,
virginia experience … corrupt federal judges as maryanne trump barry, sam
alito, shiff, matz (california), hall, underhill, dorsey, etc.. Defacto
bankrupt america’s so-called system is pervasively corrupt and broken (AP) Abolish the corrupt, costly, economically wasteful
lifetime extravagantly appointed federal courts - see RICO case http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) ]
Nation's '2nd Most Dangerous City' (camden, new
jersey) To Lay Off Nearly Half Of Police Force...
Chicagoland: Vandals torch Christmas charity van...
Fed Achieves Higher Price Goals: Dave's Daily ‘Do higher prices for "stuff"
make you feel better about things? Only Chavez or Ahmadinejad would be happy
since PC NIMBY American's keep being self-destructive. And, if you're an
American you've probably forgotten we have an entire Department of Energy which
has only produced more bureaucrats and patronage then more energy. You see
folks, whenever there's a problem with something important (energy, education,
banking and etc) we just create a new agency or department and assume it will
get fixed. What a bunch of suckers we are! There is only one thing innocent
citizens/investors can do--get long whatever it is they say they're
"fixing". In this case that would be commodities and oil.
Not much happened Wednesday beyond higher prices for stocks and commodities
overall. There were two light POMO
actions just to keep things well-lubed for the few traders remaining.
Volume was half-day like while headlines scream "markets post Lehman
highs" and etc. Breadth per the WSJ was positive once again.’
Can Stocks Hold on to Their Gains? , On Wednesday December 22,
2010, 7:02 pm EST Are Stocks Cheap? [
Reality’s short anwer: NO! NO! NO! ] , On Tuesday November 30, 2010 Are
Stocks Over Loved and Over Valued? [ Is the Pope Catholic? Do bears s***
in the woods? … Reality’s short answer: YES! YES! YES! ]
, On Monday November 22, 2010 ‘Momentum and perception are the big intangibles of the investing
universe. Nobody knows exactly when the investing masses' mojo will turn
on or off, overheat or over correct.Valuations, similar to gravity, are the big
equalizer. In a world of uncertainty, valuations are the one thing you can rely
on. Getting valuations right is one thing, figuring out when valuations
will exercise their gravitational pull on stocks (NYSEArca: VTI
- News)
is another.
Using Valuations as a Guide
When planning a
trip from point A to B, you need to know where A and B are. If you don't know
your destination, you will most likely end up some place you don't want to
be. Failing to prepare is preparing to fail.Fair valuations are the final
investment destination. If you invest in an undervalued market or stock and
have the patience to let the market do its magic, your investment will be
profitable 9 out of 10 times.If you invest in an overvalued market and don't
get out in time, odds are that your journey will end in tears.
Asking the 'Valuation Guru'
Charles Dow, the
founder of the Wall Street Journal and inventor of the Dow Jones Averages was
an astute student of valuations. According to Mr. Dow, a correct understanding
of valuations is the single most important ingredient to investment success. If
Mr. Dow was still alive, what would he say about today's market? Would he tell
you to buy or sell?Let's examine the most basic and probably purest measure of value:
Dividend yields.Unlike P/E ratios, dividend yields can't be fudged and
massaged. Companies with a healthy cash flow use their financial prowess to
attract and retain buy-and hold type investors with juicy dividend checks.The
dividend yield is expressed as a percentage of the stock price and can rise for
two reasons: 1) stock price drops or 2) dividend payment increases. As a rule
of thumb, the higher dividend yields, the healthier valuations.
Dividend Yield - Buy High, Sell Low
It's human nature
to want what you can't get. Current yields are low, but everybody wants income,
so investors are willing to risk the return of their money for return on their
money. Current yields are close to an all-time low, so it's fair to
assume that stocks are overvalued.The opposite was true in the first quarter of
2009. A variety of ETFs yielded close to or even more than 10%. The Financial
Select Sector SPDRs (NYSEArca: XLF - News)
and Vanguard Financial ETF (NYSEArca: VFH
- News)
paid more than 7%.Dividend ETFs like the iShares DJ Select Dividend (NYSEArca: DVY
- News)
and SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (NYSEArca: SDY
- News)
had yields north of 6%, and even plain value ETFs like Vanguard Value
(NYSEArca: VTV - News)
and iShares Russell 1000 Value (NYSEArca: IWD
- News)
paid more than 4%.The problem at that time was that nobody was interested in
yield. Investors shunned stocks and yields like cats shun water. Within a week
of prices bottoming and stocks beginning to rally, the ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter recommended to load up on dividend-rich ETFs.Here's the newsletter's
March 2, 2009 recommendation: 'This counter trend rally will have to be broad
and powerful in order to relieve investor's pent-up urge to buy. Dividend ETFs
with a higher allocation to financials are likely to rise higher than the broad
market. Some of the dividend yields are quite juicy and can help to offset
timing mistakes.'
Beware of the Yields
Trap
Since then, the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) has risen as much as 84%,
the performance for the Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) has
been similar. What about dividend yields?If the March 2009 lows marked a true
market bottom, dividend payments should have increased somewhat proportionally
to stock prices. They didn't. In fact, yields today are lower than they were at
the March 2009 bottom.In March 2009 the dividend yield for S&P 500
constituents was 3.6%. By multiplying 3.6% with the March 2009 low of 666 we
arrive at a dividend yield of 23.98 points. In October 2010, the S&P
yielded 1.97%. Based on an S&P at 1,200 points, this represented 23.64
points, 0.34 points less than at the March 2009 bottom.Hunting after yield
without considering the risk at current prices is similar to maxing out your
credit cards just to rack up frequent flier miles. The return comes at a
(long-term) cost.
Beware of the Earnings TrapIn my humble opinion, earnings are more
than just a trap, they are a minefield. According to the numbers we are fed,
earnings have already surpassed the threshold reached at the peak of the
dot-com bubble and are projected to eclipse even the 2007 all-time record high
in 2011.If this doesn't strike you as odd, take a moment to examine the chart below.
Leading up to the 2007 stock market and earnings high, we had consistent GDP
growth (not historically great but steady). The real unemployment rate (U-6,
published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics) was 8.4%.[chart]Today, GDP is
sputtering (and inflated by government subsidies) and U-6 unemployment has more
than doubled to 17%. For those who prefer to go by the media's more palatable
U-3 jobless number, it has soared from below 4.7% to 9.6%. Does that look like
the kind of environment that would produce record high earnings?I don't think
it would be presumptuous to wonder if financial engineering and massaging the
books has something to do with high earnings. Remember the 157 rule change
which allows banks (NYSEArca: KBE - News)
to hide real estate losses (see June 2010 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter for a
detailed analysis).Even when assuming that current earnings are for real, the
P/E ratio (high earnings translate into a lower P/E ratio) is still
historically elevated. Admittedly not as much out of line as a year ago, but
still high.
Don't Bet Against
Valuations
Buying into an overvalued market and expecting a long-term gain,
is like sowing seed in the winter and expecting to reap in the summer - it
doesn't work that way.Of course, over the short-term, markets can defy
valuations and make disciplined investors look like temporary fools. But, as
the 2000 and 2008 declines have shown, there are no shortcuts to long-term
success.The most intriguing facet of dividend yields and P/E ratios is that
they tend to pinpoint major market bottoms. All historic market bottoms had one
thing in common: super high dividend yields and ridiculously low P/E
ratios.Based on this historic clue, the March 2009 bottom looks more like a
fake than a major bottom. Just as ice doesn't thaw unless the temperature rises
above 32 degrees, the market doesn't bottom until P/E ratios and dividend
yields signal that a valuation reset has occurred.The December issue of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
includes a detailed analysis of P/E ratios, dividend yields, and two other
benchmarks of value-based forecasting plotted against historic charts of the
S&P 500 and Dow Jones.A picture paints more than a thousand words, and the
featured chart shows how overvalued stocks are and how far they have to drop
before a sustainable new bull market can begin.’
John
Hussman's Index: Stocks Are 13% Overvalued John Hussman, manager of Hussman Strategy Growth Fund
(HSGFX), proposed price to peak 10 year average earnings as a long term stock
market valuation metric. Compared with the normal one year price to earning
ratio, Price to Peak Earnings would eliminate short term noise. This is similar
to Shiller's ‘Cyclically Adjusted Price Earning’
ratio (CAPE10) and Warren Buffett’s stock market
GNP/GDP metric.In his weekly commentary on Dec 5, 2005, titled as 'Earnings Revert to the Mean,
Stocks Will Struggle', he proposed a simplistic method: "buy when
Price to Peak Earnings is lower than 15 and sell when it exceeds 19.5".
John Hussman has been using this as the valuation yardstick to manage the
Hussman Strategic Growth Fund HSGFX.A model portfolio called P Hussman Peak PE Market Timing
Strategy Buy 15 Sell 19.5 Weekly is also maintained to live monitor
the strategy suggested in 'Earnings Revert to the Mean,
Stocks Will Struggle'. click [chart] On Nov
19, 2010, the ratio of Real Price to the average of last 10 year Peak Real
Earnings (13.44) to its long term average (11.93) is 1.13. The US stock market is 13%
overvalued. We will be tracking this number biweekly.
WikiLeaks Founder: We Have Enough Information To Make An
Exec At A Major Bank Resign Huffington
Post | An upcoming data dump by
WikiLeaks will be damaging enough that an executive at a major American bank
will resign, the organization’s founder Julian Assange said in a recent
interview.
CIA
launches task force (Washington
Post) [ Oh yeah! There should be a task force all right; but an independent one
‘to assess the impact of … thousands of U.S.’ missteps as a consequence of
failed, flawed cia ‘strategies’, ‘intelligence-related’ blunders (ie., nation
bankrupting perpetual wars, Iraq, Afghanistan, now Pakistan, Iran, and of
course, as cia man poppy bush put it, that ‘engagement thing’ with China
including technology transfers and giving away the store, etc.. Then there’s
their illegal drug ops, securities fraud, etc., ( see http://albertpeia.com/CIAAgentAffidavit1.jpg , http://albertpeia.com/FBIAgentAffidavit11.jpg ,
see also, RICO
case http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm )
. I mean, can anybody really be
sorry we learned that the Iraq war / debacle was based on a lie? ]
Jeffrey
Saut: 'Do You Sincerely Want to Be Rich?'Excerpt from Raymond James
strategist Jeffrey Saut's latest
essay (published Monday, December 20th):
“Do you have the mental fortitude to accept huge
gains?”“This comment usually gets a hearty laugh, which merely goes to show how
little most people have determined it actually to be a problem. But consider
how many times has the following sequence of events occurred? For a full year,
you trade futures contracts, making $1000 here, losing $1500 there, making
$3000 here and losing $2000 there. Once again, you enter a trade because your
(trading) method told you to do so. Within a week, you’re up $4000. Your
friend/partner/acquaintance/broker/advisor calls you and, looking out only for
your welfare, tells you to take your profit. You have guts, though, and you
wait. The following week, your position is up $8000, the best gain you have
ever experienced. ‘Get out!’ says your friend. You sweat, still hoping for
further gains. The next Monday, your contract opens limit (down) against you.
Your friend calls and says, ‘I told you so. You got greedy. But hey, you’re
still way up on the trade. Get out tomorrow.’ The next day, on the opening, you
exit the trade, taking a $5000 profit. It’s your biggest profit of the year,
and you click your heels, smiling gratefully, proud of yourself. Then, day
after day for the next six months, you watch the market continue to go in the
direction of your original trade. You try to find another entry point and
continue to miss. At the end of six months, your method finally, quietly,
calmly says, ‘Get out.’ You check the figures and realize that your initial
entry, if held, would have netted $450,000.”“So what was your problem? Simply
that you had allowed yourself, unconsciously, to define your ‘normal’ range of
profit and loss. When the big trade finally came along, you lacked the self
esteem to take all it promised . . . who were you to shoot for such huge gains?
Why should you deserve more than your best trade of the year? Then you
abandoned both (trading) method and discipline. To win the game, make sure that
you understand why you’re in it. The big moves in markets only come once or
twice a year. Those are the ones which will pay you for all the work, fear,
sweat, and aggravation of the previous years. Don’t miss them for reasons other
than those required by your objectively defined method. The IRS categorizes
capital gains as ‘unearned income,’ that’s baloney. It’s hard to make money in
the market. Every time you make, you richly deserve. Don’t ever forget that.”
... Robert Prechter – the Elliott Wave Theorist
(1992) [ Dow
1000? Robert Prechter Thinks So
Prechter
Reiterrates Call For Dow 1,000, Even As Surging Gold And Plunging Dollar Leave
Much Credibility To Be Desired Bulls Go to Extremes: Don't Buy the "Breakout",
Sell It, Prechter Says Russell:
This Is One Of The Largest Tops In Stock Market History My old friend, Bob Prechter, is talking about Dow 400. I
used to think this was an absurd joke. I no longer think it’s a joke. The
ultimate result will be a primary bear market shocking in duration and extent.
…’ Robert R. Prechter Jr. is author of a number of newsletters
and books including “Elliott Wave Principle” (1978) in which he predicted the
super bull market of the 1980s; “At the Crest of the Tidal Wave – A Forecast of
the Great Bear Market” (1995) in which he predicted a slow motion economic
earthquake, brought about by a great asset mania, that would register 11 on the
financial Richter scale causing a collapse of historic proportions; and
“Conquer the Crash: You can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression”
(2002) in which he described the economic cataclysm that we are just beginning
to experience and advised how to position one’s self financially during that
period of time.
Depression is Imminent
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to
below 777 which was the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and
quite likely drop below 400 at one or more times during the bear market. ]
“Do you sincerely want to be rich?!”What a great question! It’s a question I ponder this time of year as I reflect on the year gone by. This year that question leaped out while studying the history of buying stampedes. Recall, the current stampede is now 77 sessions in length, which eclipses the longest such skein recorded in my notes of some 45 years. While reviewing the 1987 upside stampede, into the August 1987 peak, I rediscovered the aforementioned quote from Robert Prechter. It’s an excellent quip. Virtually everybody can identify with it.On the surface the question seems laughable; who can’t accept huge gains? But in order to set yourself up for such gains you have to possess the courage to take an oversize position and maybe even leverage it. That kind of risk takes stomach and fortitude. Many times I have waited for the right moment, the big move, and decided against it. Maybe it was because I chickened out. While I often rationalized the hesitation away, the real reason I did not act was the emotional strain.Yet, I know myself and have learned that emotional actions are failures most of the time. What one has to do is be able to step outside of themselves in an objective fashion. When you do that, it’s kind of like seeing things in slow motion. You are calm, objective, and can see ahead, perceiving the proper sequence of events. You just know you’re right and you act......I bring these thoughts up today because it’s very human to look back after this September 1st to December 18th “buying stampede” and say, “If I hadda . . . !” If I hadda bought that stock, that option, that index, in size, etc. . . . ! It’s painful. But, post mortems help you learn in this business. I’ve learned that history repeats itself in the financial markets, despite changing players and changing events. You have to identify the patterns, and then you have to possess the courage to act, to believe in your own discipline …That said, there are signs that the current rally is long of tooth, suggesting the potential for a January “air pocket.” Furthermore, there is precedent for that. In 1981 the SPX suffered a 5% downside “air pocket.” Again in 1990 there was a 7% “hit.” In fact, January 2010 saw a 4% hiccup. Accordingly, while I still believe the upside should be favored into year-end, I am starting to consider some downside hedge “bets” to reduce the risk in portfolios.’
Elvis, Nixon And The New Normal McSherry ‘It was 40 years
ago today On this date forty years ago, December 21, 1970, in a bizarre meeting
of pop culture icons, Elvis Presley met with President Richard Nixon after ‘The
King’ appeared unannounced at the gates of the Executive Mansion and handed the
guard on duty a 5-page handwritten letter requesting a meeting with the
president.Elvis presented the president with a commemorative Colt .45 pistol
during the meeting for some reason, and according to notes of the meeting taken
by Nixon aide Egil Krogh, Presley told the president that he thought the
Beatles were a “real force for anti-American spirit” (not to mention having put
a serious dent in the King’s record sales. He was probably resentful of their
role in his banishment to Vegas).Elvis also disclosed that he had been studying
“Communist brainwashing and the drug culture for over ten years.” At least the
second claim was not hyperbole! After the meeting, Elvis got what he was
after: a ceremonial appointment as a “Federal Agent at Large” in the war
against drugs. I wonder if the badge helped him fill all of the prescriptions
he obtained while under the care of the acquiescent Dr. Nick.Elvis was such an
important cultural figure in American history that two versions of him co-exist
in the pantheon of Pop Culture Gods. The one we all prefer to remember is the
cool, leather-clad rockabilly version that dramatically burst upon the world
stage in the 1950s, but the overweight, caped Vegas version still has a hold on
the popular imagination. Together they symbolize a peculiarly American version
of a Shakespearian tragedy.While it will be sometime before we know if the
upcoming year is filled with scintillating versions of “Hound Dog” or turgid
versions of “In The Ghetto,” we can at least run with the metaphor for the rest
of this blog entry. After a decade in which a debt-fueled spree caused the
American economy to become as bloated as the late-period Vegas Elvis after a
night spent bingeing on amphetamines and fried peanut butter and banana
sandwiches, it should have come to little surprise to any of us that the
post-housing bubble crash was so painful to endure. But now American
corporations have become as lean as the leather-clad Elvis seen during his
famous televised “comeback” special in 1968 and investors can’t help falling in
love with the thought that the so-called “new normal” may not be quite as
depressing as some of the popularizers of that phrase have been
predicting.Reluctant buyers appear to have decided that it’s now or never and
have been jumping into the market in the anticipation that improving economic
conditions will result in an earnings bonanza for said corporations.Many
suspicious minds, scarred by the experiences of the past two years are having a
hard time buying into the notion of a “melt-up” in the market, but the indexes
are currently pressing up against a number of resistance levels and an upside
breakout could cause the shorts to check into Heartbreak Hotel. The recovery of
the service sector, currently said to make up nearly two-thirds of the American
economy, will be the key to improved GDP growth and investors would be wise to
key an eye on related metrics.Services (think Elvis’coterie of assorted
“hangers-on”) tend to recover later in the cycle than durable goods and if the
pattern plays out as it has in past recoveries, we could be on a verge of
another leg up. Anecdotal evidence supports the thesis that he wealth effect
caused by a rising market is encouraging consumers to spend during this holiday
season. Can it be long before businesses large and small begin to reap the
benefits of increased consumer spending? Judging by the increasing number of
prognosticators who are predicting a strong rally, we all could be headed for
Graceland in 2011. Thank you very much.’
The Economic Collapse
Dec 17, 2010
The financial
collapse that so many of us have been anticipating is seemingly closer then
ever. Over the past several weeks, there have been a host of ominous
signs for the U.S. economy. Yields on U.S. Treasuries have moved up
rapidly and Moody’s is publicly warning that it may have to cut the rating on
U.S. government debt soon. Mortgage rates are also moving up
aggressively. The euro and the U.S. dollar both look incredibly
shaky. Jobs continue to be shipped out of the United States at a
blistering pace as our politicians stand by and do nothing. Confidence in
U.S. government debt around the globe continues to decline. State and
local governments that are drowning in debt across the United States are
savagely cutting back on even essential social services and are coming up with
increasingly “creative” ways of getting more money out of all of us.
Meanwhile, tremor after tremor continues to strike the world financial
system. So does this mean that we have almost reached a tipping
point? Is the world on the verge of a major financial collapse?
Let’s hope
not, but with each passing week the financial news just seems to get eve
worse. Not only is U.S. government debt spinning wildly toward a breaking
point, but many U.S. states (such as California) are in such horrific financial
condition that they are beginning to resemble banana republics.
But it is not
just the United States that is in trouble. Nightmarish debt problems in
Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Belgium and several other European
nations threaten to crash the euro at any time. In fact, many economists
are now openly debating which will collapse first – the euro or the U.S.
dollar.
Sadly, this is
the inevitable result of constructing a global financial system on debt.
All debt bubbles eventually collapse. Currently we are living in the
biggest debt bubble in the history of the world, and when this one bursts it is
going to be a disaster of truly historic proportions.
So will we
reach a tipping point soon? Well, the following are 25 signs that the
financial collapse is rapidly getting closer….
#1 The official U.S. unemployment rate has not been
beneath 9 percent since
April 2009.
#2 According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there are
currently 6.3
million vacant homes in the United States that are either for sale or for
rent.
#3 It is being projected that the U.S. trade deficit
with China could hit 270 billion dollars
for the entire year of 2010.
#4 Back in 2000, 7.2 percent of blue collar workers
were either unemployed or underemployed. Today that figure is up
to 19.5 percent.
#5 The Chinese government has accumulated approximately
$2.65 trillion in
total foreign exchange reserves. They have drained this wealth from the
economies of other nations (such as the United States) and instead of
reinvesting all of it they are just sitting on much of it. This is
creating tremendous imbalances in the global economy.
#6 Since the year 2000, we have lost 10% of our middle class jobs. In the
year 2000 there were approximately 72 million middle class jobs in the United
States but today there are only about 65 million middle class jobs.
#7 The United States now employs about the same number
of people in manufacturing as
it did back in 1940. Considering the fact that we had 132 million
people living in this country in 1940 and that we have well over 300 million
people living in this country today, that is a very sobering statistic.
#8 According to CoreLogic, U.S. housing prices have now
declined for
three months in a row.
#9 The average rate on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage soared
11 basis points just this past week. As mortgage rates continue to
push higher it is going to make it even more difficult for American families to
afford homes.
#10 22.5 percent of all residential mortgages in the
United States were in negative equity as of the end of the third quarter
of 2010.
#11 The U.S. monetary base has
more than doubled since the beginning of the most recent recession.
#12 U.S. Treasury yields have been rising steadily
during the 4th quarter of 2010 and
recently hit a six-month high.
#13 Incoming governor Jerry Brown is scrambling to find
$29 billion more to cut from the California state budget. The
following quote from Brown about the desperate condition of California
state finances is not going to do much to inspire confidence in California’s
financial situation around the globe….
“We’ve been living in fantasy land. It is much worse
than I thought. I’m shocked.”
#14
24.3
percent of the residents of El Centro, California are currently unemployed.
#15
The average home in Merced, California has declined in value by
63 percent over the past four years.
#16
Detroit Mayor Dave Bing has come up with a new way to save money. He
wants to cut 20
percent of Detroit off from essential social services such as road repairs,
police patrols, functioning street lights and garbage collection.
#17
The second most dangerous city in the United States – Camden, New Jersey – is
about to lay off about
half its police in a desperate attempt to save money.
#18
In 2010, 55
percent of Americans between the ages of 60 and 64 were in the labor
market. Ten years ago, that number was just 47 percent. More older
Americans than ever find that they have to keep working just to survive.
#19
Back in 1998, the United States had 25 percent of the world’s high-tech export
market and China had just 10 percent. Ten years later, the United States had
less than 15 percent and China’s share had soared to 20 percent.
#20
The U.S. government budget deficit increased to a whopping $150.4 billion last
month, which represented the biggest November budget deficit on record.
#21
The U.S. government is somehow going to have to roll over existing debt and
finance new debt that
is equivalent to 27.8 percent of GDP in 2011.
#22
The United States had been the leading consumer of energy on the globe for
about 100 years, but this past summer China took over the number one spot.
#23
According to an absolutely stunning new poll, 40 percent of all U.S. doctors plan to bail out of the
profession over the next three years.
#24
As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had been
unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over
6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.
#25
All over the United States, local governments have begun instituting “police
response fees”. For example, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has come up
with a plan under which a
fee of $365 would be charged if police are called to respond to an
automobile accident where no injuries are involved. If there are injuries
as a result of the crash that is going to cost extra.
As you examine
the long-term trends, you quickly come to realize that the U.S. is trapped in
an endless spiral of debt, the middle class is being wiped out, the U.S. dollar
is being destroyed and America is rapidly becoming a post-industrial wasteland.
Posted below
are 16 nightmarish economic trends to watch carefully in 2011. It is
becoming exceedingly apparent that unless something is done rapidly we are
heading for an economic collapse of unprecedented magnitude….
#1 Do you want to see something scary? Just check
out the chart below. Since the beginning of the economic downturn, the
U.S. monetary base has more than doubled. But don’t worry – Federal
Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has promised us that this could never cause
inflation. In fact, Bernanke says that we need to inject even more
dollars into the economy. So if you are alarmed by the chart below, you
are just being irrational according to Bernanke….
#2 Thousands of our factories, millions of our jobs and
hundreds of billions of dollars of our national wealth continue to be shipped
overseas. In 1985, the U.S. trade deficit with China was 6 million dollars
for the entire year. In the month of August
alone, the U.S. trade deficit with China was over 28 billion
dollars. Nobel economist Robert W. Fogel of the University of Chicago
is projecting that the Chinese economy will be three times larger than the U.S. economy by the
year 2040 if current trends continue.
#3 The United States is rapidly becoming a
post-industrial wasteland. Back in 1959, manufacturing represented 28
percent of all U.S. economic output. In 2008, it represented only
11.5 percent and it continues to fall. Sadly, the truth is that America
is being deindustrialized. As of the end of 2009, less
than 12 million Americans worked in manufacturing. The last time that
less than 12 million Americans were employed in manufacturing was in 1941.
#4 The number of Americans that have been out of work
for an extended period of time has absolutely exploded over the last few
years. As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had
been unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over
6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.
#5 The middle class continues to be squeezed out of
existence. According to a poll
taken in 2009, 61 percent of Americans ”always or usually” live
paycheck to paycheck. That was up substantially from 49 percent
in 2008 and 43 percent in 2007.
#6 The number of Americans living in poverty is
absolutely skyrocketing. 42.9 million Americans are now on food
stamps, and one out of every six Americans is now enrolled
in at least one anti-poverty program run by the federal government.
Unfortunately, many of those that have been hardest hit by this economic
downturn have been children. According to one new study,
approximately 21 percent of all children in the United States are
living below the poverty line in 2010 - the highest rate in 20 years.
#7 Many American families have been pushed beyond the
breaking point during this economic downturn. Over 1.4 million Americans
filed for personal bankruptcy in 2009, which represented a
32 percent increase over 2008. The final number for 2010 is expected
to be even higher.
#8 The U.S. real estate market continues to
stagnate. During
the third quarter of 2010, 67 percent of mortgages in Nevada were
“underwater”, 49 percent of mortgages in Arizona were “underwater” and 46
percent of mortgages in Florida were “underwater”. So what happens if
home prices go down even more?
#9 More elderly Americans than ever are being forced to
put off retirement and continue working. In 2010, 55
percent of Americans between the ages of 60 and 64 were in the labor
market. Ten years ago, that number was just 47 percent.
Unfortunately, it looks like this problem will only get worse in the years
ahead. In America today, approximately half of all workers have
less than $2000 saved up for retirement.
#10 In the United States today, there are simply far too
many retirees and not nearly enough workers to support them. Back in 1950
each retiree’s Social Security benefit was paid for by 16
workers. Today, each retiree’s Social Security benefit is paid for
by approximately 3.3 workers. By 2025 it is projected that
there will be approximately two workers for each retiree.
#11 Financial assets continue to become concentrated in
fewer and fewer hands. For example, the “big four” U.S.
banks (Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells
Fargo) had approximately 22 percent of all deposits in FDIC-insured
institutions back in 2000. As of the middle of 2009 that figure was up to 39 percent.
#12 The Federal Reserve has been destroying the value of
the U.S. dollar for decades. Since the Federal Reserve was created in
1913, the U.S. dollar has lost over 95 percent of its purchasing power.
An item that cost $20.00 in 1970 would cost you $112.35 today. An item
that cost $20.00 in 1913 would cost you $440.33 today.
#13 Commodity prices continue to soar into the
stratosphere. Ten years ago, the price of a barrel of oil hovered around 20 to 30
dollars most of the time. Today, the price of oil is rapidly closing
in on 100 dollars a barrel and there are now fears that it could soon go much
higher than that.
#14 Federal government spending is completely and
totally out of control. The U.S. government budget deficit increased to a
whopping $150.4 billion last month, which represented the biggest November deficit on record. But our
politicians can’t seem to break their addiction to debt. In fact,
Democrats are trying to ram through a
1,924 page, 1.1 trillion dollar spending bill in the final days of the
lame-duck session of Congress before the Republicans take control of the House
of Representatives next year.
#15 The U.S. national debt is rapidly closing in on 14 trillion dollars. It is more
than 13 times larger than it was just 30 short years ago. According to an
official U.S. Treasury Department report to Congress, the U.S. national
debt is projected to climb
to an estimated $19.6 trillion by 2015.
#16 Unfortunately, the official government numbers
grossly understate the horrific nature of the crisis we are facing. John
Williams of Shadow Government Statistics has calculated that if the federal
government would have used GAAP accounting standards to measure the federal
budget deficit for 2009, it would have been approximately 8.8
trillion dollars. Not only that, but John Williams now says that U.S.
government debt is
so wildly out of control that it is mathematically impossible for us to
“grow” our way out of it….
The government’s finances not only are out of
control, but the actual deficit is not containable. Put into perspective,
if the government were to raise taxes so as to seize 100% of all wages,
salaries and corporate profits, it still would be showing an annual deficit
using GAAP accounting on a consistent basis. In like manner, given current
revenues, if it stopped spending every penny (including defense and homeland
security) other than for Social Security and Medicare obligations, the
government still would be showing an annual deficit. Further, the U.S. has
no potential way to grow out of this shortfall.
The more one examines the U.S. economic situation,
the more depressing it becomes. The U.S. financial system is trapped
inside a horrific debt spiral and we are headed straight for economic
oblivion.
If our leaders attempt to interrupt the debt spiral
it will plunge our economy into a depression. If our leaders attempt to
keep the debt spiral going for several more years it will just make the
eventual crash even worse. Either way, we are headed for a financial
implosion that will be truly historic.
The debt-fueled good times that we have been enjoying
for the last several decades are rapidly coming to an end. Unfortunately
for the tens of millions of Americans that are already suffering, our economic
problems are only going to get worse in the years ahead.’
Timid
Tuesday: Is it Safe? Davis
‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are
simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of
global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form
of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh)
is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut
$100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while
continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1%
each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool
all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT
THERE! ‘
17 Things Worrying
Investors Lloyd's Wall of Worry
Worry Count: 17
CHINA: 1,330,044,605 people can’t be wrong.
The PIIGS: Fasten your seatbelts. It’s gonna be a long, bumpy, expensive,
weird, (insert your own adjective here) freak show of a ride.
CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER 49 STATES: Not yet as dire as “The PIIGS”. Might I
suggest the classier moniker of “The Prosciuttos” for the American basket-case
states?
QE II: Gobble?
U.S. ECONOMY: The “Punky Brewster” of the global economic landscape.
UNEMPLOYMENT: Only thing worse than losing your job, losing your unemployment
check. At least there’s the holiday season to cheer everyone up (read: heavy
sarcasm).
TAXES: Praying to the Financial Market Gods that we don’t have another
TARP-like vote fiasco.
OBAMA ADMINISTRATION PART II: Still two years before the Pres. election and the
peanut gallery is already pleading for a Hail Mary Pass to get them back in the
game.
HFT: Instead of beating up these liquidity supplying traders, let’s honor them
with their very own stock exchange. But wait -- with no retail
saps to pick-off they will never get that Day 1 opening bell tick. Perfect.
XMAS 2010: As my professor friend Nick says, “Nowadays Americans are dining off
of two menus – The Million Dollar and the $0.99 Cent.” And both
are pissed about it.
CURRENCIES: Poor Mr. Greenback. Does someone need a hug?
HOUSING CRISIS: Price Stabilization – Are we there yet? Just a little bit more.
Are we there yet? Just a little bit more. Are we there yet? Just a little bit
more….
INFLATION/DEFLATION: Fed Chief Ben B. comes out swinging from his heels in
defense of inflation promotion. Don’t punch yourself out as this one is likely
to go the distance.
COMMODITIES: Corrected but still sky high; fortunately these prices are only
affecting core, basic, life-sustaining necessities and sparing our electronic
gadgets and plus-sized SUVs. Whew!
INSIDER TRADING: Another black eye for Hedge Funds. I estimate that makes black
eye number 6,597.
INTEREST RATES: South Korea and China slowly turning up the dial to “11”. On
the other hand the U.S. has removed the dial altogether. This never ends well….
NORTH KOREA: Here we go again.
AP:
TOP 10 STORIES OF 2010... Crary, Ap
National Writer – NEW YORK – The massive Gulf of Mexico oil spill,
triggered by a deadly blast at a rig used by BP, was the top news story of 2010, followed by the
divisive health care overhaul, according to The Associated Press' annual poll
of U.S. editors and news directors.The oil spill received 54 first-place votes
out of 180 ballots cast for the top 10 stories. The health care bill was next,
with 30 first-place votes. The U.S. election was third.In fourth place was the
U.S. economy, which had been voted the top story of 2009.
Here are 2010's top 10 stories, in order:
1.
_GULF OIL
DISASTER: The April 20 explosion at a BP-leased rig killed 11 workers and
unleashed a deep-sea spill that ultimately spewed at least 170 million gallons
of crude into the Gulf. Consequences included devastation for fishing and
tourism industries, a huge and costly cleanup effort, a management change at
BP, and creation of a $20 billion fund to pay for damages.
2.
_HEALTH CARE
OVERHAUL: After bitter political wrangling, President Barack Obama was able to
sign into law one of his major campaign promises — a $1 trillion health care
overhaul intended to expand coverage to more Americans. But Republicans used
public misgivings about parts of the plan as a springboard for election gains,
and the overhaul faced a welter of lawsuits challenging its constitutionality.
3.
_US ELECTIONS:
President Obama called it a "shellacking" — an election in which the
Republicans surged to a majority in the House of Representatives, and gained
more governor's offices and legislative majorities. The Democrats were able to
hang on to their edge in the Senate, leaving the U.S. with at least two years
of divided government.
4.
_US ECONOMY:
Economists said the deepest recession since the Great Depression was over, and consumers began
to spend more as the year neared a close. But the unemployment rate stayed well
above 9 percent, and home prices were weighed down by foreclosures and sluggish
demand.
5.
_HAITI
EARTHQUAKE: Already the Western Hemisphere's most destitute nation, Haiti was shattered by an earthquake on Jan.
12 that killed at least 230,000 and left millions homeless. Crucial
reconstruction projects were slow to get started; disease and political
instability added to the woes.
6.
_TEA PARTY
MOVEMENT: Though it lacked the trappings of traditional political organizations,
the tea party movement had a profound impact on the 2010 election, influencing
the stances of Republican leaders and enabling some maverick challengers to
oust GOP establishment candidates in the primaries.
7.
_CHILE MINE
RESCUE: In a year of disasters and squabbles, this was a miraculous feel-good
story. Trapped nearly a half-mile underground for 69 days after an Aug. 5 mine
collapse, 33 Chilean miners were freed one-by-one while an entranced global
audience watched on television.
8.
_IRAQ: U.S.
forces formally ended their combat role and looked ahead to planned
withdrawal, while Iraqis endured months of bitter political haggling after an
election that failed to heal Sunni-Shiite divisions.
9.
_WIKILEAKS:
First came the online postings of a huge batch of U.S. military documents from
Iraq and Afghanistan, Then WikiLeaks started releasing
a cache of classified State Department diplomatic cables, creating
embarrassment for Washington in its dealings with other nations.
10. _AFGHANISTAN: After months of deliberation, President
Obama ordered a troop surge in a major bid to turn the tide of the nearly
10-year-old war. Intense fighting pushed the Taliban out of some longtime
strongholds, but the militants remained resilient, and Afghanistan remained
beset by corruption and ineffectual government.
It was a year
of dramatic and diverse news events. Among the stories which didn't make the
top 10 were Arizona's enactment of a tough law against illegal immigration, the
European fiscal crisis, a Supreme Court ruling freeing corporations and unions
to fund election ads targeting candidates, floods in
Pakistan that affected 20 million people, and the volcanic eruption in Iceland
that caused trans-Atlantic air travel chaos."We wish we could have voted
for a top 15 or 20, there were so many compelling stories this year,"
wrote news editor Larry Lockhart of the Casa Grande Dispatch in Arizona.Jessica
Runnels Rourk, an editor at The Post and Courier in Charleston, S.C., said the
health care overhaul was a catalyst for other major political
events."Conservative anger over the law gave rise to the tea party
movement, and the law itself became a symbol of the lack of bipartisanship in
Congress that cost incumbents from both parties in November's elections,"
she noted on her ballot.’
Afghanistan delivers a belated, muted
criticism of Obama's war strategy review (Washington Post) [ war
strategy review … Don’t make me laugh! What strategy? To what end? National
bankruptcy? Accomplished! Costly blowback (now and future)? Accomplished!
Heroin trade up? Accomplished! Increase global anti-american sentiment?
Accomplished! Incresed corporate welfare to special war profiteering interests?
Accomplished! Killing innocent men, women, and children? Accomplished! …
‘should have focused more on other issues, such as Afghan civilian casualties’…
duh! Remember, these
wobamanoids/bushies are desperate criminals in a failed administratin / nation
]
WikiLeaks:
Julian Assange says police feared he would be assassinated outside High Court The founder of WikiLeaks Julian Assange has
claimed he is being bombarded with death threats from american soldiers (who
have got to be considered propagandized fools since he actually was helping
them inasmuch as they are viewed by the so-called powers that be as nothing
more than nation-distracting cannon fodder, despite any political rhetoric to
the contrary). ]Enactment of the
controversial rules would mark the government's strongest move yet to ensure
Web data reach consumers' homes unimpeded.
Applebaum:
The
'decline of the West' (Washington Post) [ It really is true … and, no
leftist sympathizer with his book of the same name, none other than Buchanan
says as much. The reason of course is based on reality. From Orwellian Britain,
to failed nation-state the pervasively corrupt and defacto bankrupt
wobama-bushland america, to perpetual war ‘me-toos’ (ie., nato allies, war
crimes nations israel, u.s., etc.), their frauds (wall street, etc.) protected,
laws meaningless(see RICO
case http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) , their ruthless suppression subtle, hidden,
but odious as never before in their respective histories, the west at best has
become that ‘distinction without significant difference’ and heading to worse
than can be imagined. Of course they’ll lay blame to something other than the
huge frauds / wealth transfers that have plundered the nation. Indeed, one
could even cogently argue that said plundering gave rise to the flawed, failed
communism lie in the first instance. Yet, Russia, a great nation with a rich
history is not a communist nation, did not violently suppress the people as
they shirked that communist yoke / albatross, is not as defacto bankrupt,
meaningfully lawless, pervasively corrupt america engaging in perpetual wars of
destruction to persons and property, and with a great leader of historical
dimension in Putin is a far more rational choice than the bankrupt west on all
levels. As for communist china, it has
truly been a self-defeating, self-destructive creation of the west out of greed
which is in no short supply in the west.
PREVIOUS:
Wikileaks
founder freed on bail (Washington
Post) [ ‘… Moore (correctly) asserts
that Assange
is under attack solely because he had the courage to expose American war
crimes. Moore writes:
We
were taken to war in Iraq on a lie. Hundreds of thousands are now dead. Just
imagine if the men who planned this war crime back in 2002 had had a WikiLeaks
to deal with. They might not have been able to pull it off. The only reason
they thought they could get away with it was because they had a guaranteed
cloak of secrecy....
So
why is WikiLeaks, after performing such an important public service, under such
vicious attack? Because they have outed and embarrassed those who have covered
up the truth…’
CLINTON BODY COUNT
By: Ether Zone
Staff
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored A viral You Tube upload of
one of Alex Jones’ most popular feature films ‘The Obama Deception’ has been
censored following a spur of the moment campaign to elevate the movie’s title
to the top of the major internet search engines. In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
CLINTON BODY COUNT
By: Ether Zone
Staff
Here is the latest body
count that we have. All of these people have been connected with the Clintons
in some form or another. We have not included any deaths that could not be
verified or connected to the Clinton scandals. All deaths are listed
chronologically by date. This list is current and accurate to the best of our
knowledge as of January 13, 1999 August 1, 2000. (see complete list http://albertpeia.com/bodycount.htm )
Susan Coleman: Rumors were circulating in Arkansas of an affair
with Bill Clinton. She was found dead with a gunshot wound to the head at 7 1/2
months pregnant. Death was an apparent suicide.
Kevin Ives & Don Henry: Initial cause of death was reported to be the result
of falling asleep on a railroad track in Arkansas on August 23, 1987. This
ruling was reported by the State medical examiner Fahmy Malak. Later it was
determined that Kevin died from a crushed skull prior to being placed on the
tracks. Don had been stabbed in the back. Rumors indicate that they might have
stumbled upon a Mena drug operation.
Paul Olson: A Federal witness in investigations to drug money
corruption in Chicago politics, Paul had just finished 2 days of FBI interviews
when his plane ride home crashed, killing Paul and 130 others on Sept 8 1994.
The Sept. 15, 1994 Tempe Tribune newspaper reported that the FBI suspected that
a bomb had brought down the airplane.
Calvin Walraven: 24 year on Walraven was a key witness against Jocelyn
Elder's son's drug case. Walraven was found dead in his apartment with a gunshot
wound to the head. Tim Hover, a Little Rock police spokesman says no foul play
is suspected.
Alan G. Whicher: Oversaw Clinton's Secret Service detail. In October 1994
Whicher was transferred to the Secret Service field office in the Murrah
Building in Oklahoma City. Whatever warning was given to the BATF agents in
that building did not reach Alan Whicher, who died in the bomb blast of April
19th 1995.
Ron Brown:. The Commerce Secretary died on April 3, 1996, in an
Air Force jet carrying Brown and 34 others, including 14 business executives on
a trade mission to Croatia, crashed into a mountainside. The Air Force, in a
22-volume report issued in June of 1996, confirmed its initial judgment that
the crash resulted from pilot errors and faulty navigation equipment At the
time of Brown's death, Independent Counsel Daniel Pearson was seeking to
determine whether Brown had engaged in several sham financial transactions with
longtime business partner Nolanda Hill shortly before he became secretary of
commerce.
Charles Meissner: died: UNK - Following Ron Brown's death, John Huang was
placed on a Commerce Department contract that allowed him to retain his
security clearance by Charles Meissner. Shortly thereafter, Meissner died in
the crash of a small plane. He was an Assistant Secretary of Commerce
for International Economic Policy.
Barbara Wise: Wise a 14-year Commerce Department employee found dead and
partially naked in her office following a long weekend. She worked in the same
section as John Huang. Officially, she is said to have died of natural causes.
Mary C. Mahoney: 25, murdered at the Georgetown Starbuck's coffee bar over
the 4th of July '97 weekend. She was a former White House intern who worked
with John Huang. Apparently she knew Monica Lewinsky and her sexual encounters
with Bill Clinton. Although not verified, it has been said that Lewinsky told
Linda Tripp that she did not want to end up like Mahoney.
---------------------------------------------------------
] Gerson: He could have
taken quiet credit for the bipartisan tax deal; he chose otherwise. ]
Low-wage
families on the rise (Washington Post) [ Yeah! Poverty and the size of the
(still unprosecuted from last fraud) fraudulent wall street sinkhole bonuses …
rising. ] Recession sharply increased the percentage of working people who earn
wages so paltry they struggle to survive, according to a new report.
This is an especially
great time to Sell / Take Profits since there is much, much worse to come! (
They’re just suckin’ you in with debased dollar, inflated earnings and
depressed P/E multiples thereby, insurmountable debt and stock bubble
therefrom, diverting attention from their huge fraud accomplis with trillions
of the worthless paper / toxic asset results of same now marked to anything as
per legislated FASB rule change! ) ( These lower dollar, hyperinflationary
currency manipulations / translations to froth paper stocks, and insurmountable
debt will end quite badly as in last crash and worse! )
Sweet Stock Market Lullaby - Followed by Rude Awakening? , On Monday
December 20, 2010, 6:33 pm EST
Rock-a-bye
baby, in the treetop ... are you asleep yet?The stock market is lulling
investors to sleep. Since early September stocks have gone nowhere but up. Four
weeks of steady gains have rekindled optimism and created a state of euphoria
not seen in years ... since late 2007 to be exact.The irony of this article is
that few investors will feel compelled to read anything that resembles a
warning or contains a bearish message. The few that read this piece will
probably scoff at it. That's how bear market rallies work and that's why they
are effective.The soothing rhythm of the VIX has lulled investors into a state
of complacency. If you had to describe investor's alertness in sleep lingo, a
state of REM sleep would probably be the closest comparison.History tells us
that the (bear) market only strikes when least expected.Based on a variety of
sentiment measures, a stock market decline is viewed to be less likely to
happen now than in 2000 or 2007.
No Hedging Required - 2011 Will Be Gangbusters
Investors
and traders are content to hold on to massive long positions without hedge. One
of the easiest ways to hedge your stock portfolio is via put options. The CBOE
Equity Put/Call Ratio has tumbled to the second lowest reading in years. The
only time investors hedged less was in April 2010.Back then, the put/call ratio
dropped to 0.45. The lack of hedging is dangerous for prices because the market
is without a safety net. The only option for spooked investors without hedge is
to sell. Selling causes prices to drop.On April 16, 2010, the ETF Profit
Strategy Newsletter warned of the consequences of a low put/call ratio:
'Selling results in more selling. This negative feedback loop usually results
in rapidly falling prices. The pieces are in place for a major decline. We are
simply waiting for the proverbial first domino to fall over and set off a chain
reaction.'The first domino dropped just a few days later, setting off the May 6
'Flash Crash' and ultimately resulted in a swift 15% correction for the Dow
(DJI: ^DJI), 17% correction for the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), 19% for the Nasdaq
(Nasdaq: ^IXIC), and 21% for the Russell 2000 (Chicago Options: ^RUT).
This Time is Different
The
spirit of 'this time is different' is one of the most fascinating phenomenons
known to Wall Street. Investors' sentiment precisely follows the ebb and flow
of stock prices. When prices are up, the future is expected to be bright. When
prices are down, the future is supposedly bleak (just think of the 2007 peak
and 2009 bottom).This approach of linear extrapolations feeds the herding
mentality, which contrarians use as contrarian indicators. This approach is not
foolproof but, nevertheless, is one of the most accurate, if not the most
accurate timing tool known to underground Wall Street aficionados.The chart
below illustrates the four most prominent occurrences of extreme optimism, or
the 'this time is different' effect. The green line connects the price of the
S&P with the timeline and various sentiment gauges. [chart] Investors
thought this time is different at the 2007 peak, in May 2008, in January 2010,
and again in April 2010. The only thing different at all four times was the
velocity of the descent, but each period of euphoria was greeted by despair.
Optimism and Bad News
If
you have watched CNBC's 60 Minutes over the past two weeks, you are aware of
some serious 'Black Swans.'Scott Pelley's introduction to Ben Bernanke's
interview couldn't have been more sobering: 'That is the worst recovery we've
ever seen. Ben Bernanke is concerned. Chairmen of the Fed rarely do interviews,
but this week Bernanke feels he has to speak out because he believes his
critics may not understand how much trouble the economy is in.'The financial
media, however, ignored Ben Bernanke's outright scary assessment of the economy
and focused on the silver lining: A bad economy may lead to QE3 and its cousins
QE4 and QE5. What's better, an improving economy or more QE? Apparently QE is
just as good as more jobs.Yesterday's 60 Minutes focused the next big thing;
Municipal and state defaults. In the two years since the 'Great Recession,'
states have collectively spent nearly half a trillion dollars more than they
collected. There's a trillion dollar hole in their public pension fund and
according to New Jersey's Governor, the day of reckoning is near.Meredith
Whitney, one of the few analysts who foresaw the bubble building in banks
(NYSEArca: KBE - News)
and financials (NYSEArca: XLF - News)
believes at least part of the three trillion municipal bond market will unravel
within the next year.For much of 2010 municipal bonds were brewing their own
little bubble. As it is common with bubbles, they are rarely foreseen by the
public eye. In the case of muni bonds, yield hungry investors ignored the red
flags.On August 26, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned that it is time
to get out of muni bonds (NYSEArca: MUB
- News),
corporate bonds (NYSEArca: LQD - News)
and Treasuries (NYSEArca: TLT - News).
The chart below shows what has happened to muni bonds. [chart]
History Rhymes
John Hussman: 12 Reasons for Market Caution ‘Excerpt from the Hussman Funds' Weekly
Market Comment (12/20/10):
1) Investors dangerously underestimate
the risk of an abrupt and possibly severe equity market plunge Look back over history at points in
time where stocks were trading at a rich multiple to normalized earnings (the
Shiller multiple is a useful gauge here, as forward operating and price/peak
earnings are both corrupted by profit margins that are about 50% above their
historic norms). Combine that with overbought, overbullish conditions and
rising interest rates. What you will get is a list of most historical pre-crash
peaks. Depending on precisely how you define your classifier, you may pick up
one or two benign outcomes, such as April 1999 (which I noted in the Hazardous
Ovoboby piece in early 2007), but ask whether, on average, you would have
knowingly chosen to take market risk at those points...
5) The U.S. economy is recovering, but
that recovery is vulnerable to even modest shocks.
As I noted a couple of weeks ago, in
the ideal case where the economy grows continuously without further credit
strains, the "mean-reversion benchmark" scenario would be for GDP
growth to approach an average rate of 3.8% annually for about 4 years, followed
by about 2.3% annual growth thereafter. The corresponding mean-reversion
benchmark for employment growth would be an average of about 200,000 new jobs
per month on a sustained basis.There has certainly been some improvement in
various indicators of economic activity. As strange as this may sound, given my
criticism of the Fed, I would attribute much of this improvement to a sentiment
effect in response Fed's policy of quantitative easing. While long-term
Treasury yields are significantly higher than before QE2 was announced, and
though I continue to believe that the main effect of QE2 has been to encourage
ultimately short-sighted speculation, the Emperor's-clothes enthusiasm about
QE2 has had at least the short-term effect of buoying short-term spending and
hiring plans. Unfortunately, this sort of sentiment-dependent bounce in
activity is not very robust to shocks.So while the surface activity of the U.S.
economy has observably improved, it is in the context of an overvalued,
overbought, overbullish, rising-yields market that is vulnerable to abrupt
losses, a global financial system that remains subject to strains from
sovereign default, a housing market where one-in-seven mortgages is delinquent
or in foreclosure, and nearly one-in-four is already underwater with a huge
overhang of unliquidated foreclosure inventory still in the pipeline, and a
domestic financial system that lacks transparency and may still be slouching
toward insolvency. The U.S. economy is progressing on the surface, but it
remains a house built on a ledge of ice.’
Pre-Holiday
Market Outlook: Mixed Bag of Signals, More Risk Than Reward Nyaradi
‘Rudolph was well into bringing the “Santa Rally” to town when this week
he suddenly ran into the ominous sounding “Hindenburg Omen.” Beyond that,
economic news was mostly positive while markets remain overbought, breadth is
dwindling and upward momentum has stalled heading into the lightly traded
Christmas week.
Looking
at My Screens
As I mentioned,
momentum is dwindling as the indexes stall near highs for the year. Bullish
sentiment remains at high extremes typically associated with market tops and
preceding significant declines.
Also, last week
markets generated a confirmed “Hindenburg Omen” that is a fairly reliable
forecaster for impending markets declines.
There are lots of
good articles about the Hindenburg Omen but the salient facts from wikipedia.org
are these:
While I’m not a follower of the Hindenburg Omen and
don’t base trading decisions upon its occurences, I believe its statistical
performance merits attention, particularly when combined with other technical
indicators currently flashing caution.
Interestingly, the last Hindenburg Omen occured in
August and received wide attention in both the blogosphere and mainstream
media. In contrast, the current signal has gone largely unnoticed which is
fascinating from a contrarian point of view. As we all know, when everyone in
the market expects one thing to happen (prices to rise) usually the opposite
occurs.
The View from 35,000 Feet
This was a largely bullish week for economic reports
as Housing Starts, Retail Sales, Empire State Manufacturing, Industrial
Production, Initial Unemployment Claims, Housing Starts and Leading Economic
Indicators all came in on the positive side of the ledger.
In the minus column, rising interest rates continued
troubling markets along with the ongoing problems in Europe, particularly
Moody’s downgrade of Ireland by five steps.
But propping markets up, the Fed continued its bond
buying program and Congress passed the tax cut extension/stimulus bill that
President Obama promptly signed. That is a classic case of kicking the can down
the road but that is a subject for another day.
What It All Means
Technically, the markets are showing substantial
deterioration while economic reports continue to show improvement so we have a
mixed bag of signals.
Investor bullishness is reaching nearly manic highs
while seasonal factors favor higher prices. All along the way, the Fed
continues its asset buying program to prop up asset prices while Europe continues
to bubble in the background.
Rudolph has run into the Hindenburg and it will be
interesting to see if Rudolph and Santa can complete their appointed rounds
this Christmas season.
It seems a logical conclusion that at the current juncture there is more risk than reward in the market over the next few weeks and into the early days of 2011…’
Highlights
of Tax Law Stimulus Lounsbury ’A summary
of the new tax law provisions was posted at the GEI News Blog
as the law was being signed by the president Friday. The outline was presented
courtesy of the FPA (Financial Planning
Association). The economic impact of the new tax law will be subject to careful
scrutiny and analysis in the coming days. GEI offers here some first pass
estimates on the stimulative effects of the law.
The excerpts in
each section are from the previously posted FPA highlights.
Two-year
extension of all current tax rates through 2012
This is basically no change from the tax law in place
in 2010 so the stimulative value is largely positive only by not being negative,
as it would have been to return to pre-2001 levels. CBO (Congressional Budget
Office) Director Douglas Elmendorf has estimated (see Menzie Chinn) that
the cumulative impact on GDP of these provisions in 2010-2015 would be between
$20 billion and $80 billion. An estimate from Moody’s
puts the GDP benefit at $60 billion.
As a first pass, using the Moody’s number, the impact
on GDP in 2011 is $30 billion. This is not additional GDP, it is preserving GDP
that would have been lost had the Bush tax cuts expired.
The cost
of the tax cut extension totals $207.5 billion, or just under $104 billion for
each 2011 and 2012.
Temporary modification of Estate, Gift and
Generation-Skipping Transfer Tax for 2010, 2011, 2012
The cost
of the new estate tax totals $68 billion, $34 billion for each 2011 and 2012
compared to the pre-2001 exemption of $1 million with a 55% top tax rate. If we
compare to 2010 when there was no estate tax (but there was also no step up in
basis for heirs), the law might actually yield more tax revenue than in 2010.
In addition, the author has not found any multiplier or stimulus estimate. For
estimating purposes the multiplier will be assumed to be the same as for income
taxes (0.29). Thus the estimate is that a reduction in GDP of $10 billion will
be realized in each 2011 and 2012.
Because the dollars are small and the direction and
magnitude of the revenue change from 2010 to 2011 so uncertain, this first pass
estimate will ignore this as a source or removal of stimulus.
AMT Patch for 2010 and 2011
The cost
of the new estate tax totals $137 billion, approximately $68 billion for each
2011 and 2012. Since this is an extension of the tax law from 2010, it provides
no additive to GDP. Without this provision using the multiplier estimate from Moody’s
indicates that GDP would have decreased by about $32 billion for each 2011 and
2012.
Extension of “tax extenders” for 2010 and 2011,
including:
Costs and multiplier factors for these items have not
been located.
Temporary Employee Payroll Tax Cut
This is a biggie. The total cost
in 2011 is $112 and the Moody’s estimate for the multiplier
is 1.29, giving a GDP adder for 2011 of $144 billion.
Expanded Child Tax Credit, Earned Income Credit and
Marriage Penalty Relief
Some of these factors are actually overlapping, in
the author’s opinion. For example, the child tax credit and the earned income
tax credit are probably the same thing, if not completely then in large part.
These tax provisions have different multiplier
estimates. The marriage penalty relief should have the same multiplier as
the tax rate extension in the first section. The GDP impact would therefore be
about $4 billion for each 2011 and 2012.
The child tax credit would have multiplier about 1.02
according to Moody’s,
so the impact on GDP would be about $48 billion per year (2011 and 2012).
Both of these would not be adders to 2010 GDP. The
absence of these provisions would have provided a reduction in GDP for each
2011 and 2012 of $52 billion.
Education Incentives Extended Through 2012
Costs
for these total $18 billion; multipliers for these items have not been located.
These are extension of 2010 programs and should not have any significant impact
on changing GDP, although the passage may have avoided a GDP subtraction. If we
assume the same multiplier as for income taxes, the GDP reduction avoided is
about $3 billion each year (2011 and 2012).
Extension of Certain Expiring Provision for
Individuals through 2011
Costs
are estimated to about $7 billion. No multiplier estimate has been found. The
change from 2010 is probably not significant and the GDP loss if not extended
would probably be small in the grand scheme of things ($1 billion per year?).
Temporary Extension of Investment Incentives
Costs
are estimated to about $53 billion. The Moody’s estimated multiplier is
only 0.27, so the GDP benefit is about $7 billion for each 2011 and 2012. This
is not an adder to 2010 GDP but what would have been subtracted if the tax law
had not been enacted.
Extension of Certain Expiring Provisions for
Businesses through 2011
Costs and multiplier estimates have not been located.
Extension of Unemployment Insurance
The cost
of this is $53 billion, all in 2011. The estimated multiplier is
1.64 so the GDP adder is $87 billion. As in many other cases this is not an
adder to 2010 GDP, but what would have been subtracted had the benefits not
been extended.
Other/Unidentified
There remains about $30 billion in lost 2010 tax
revenue that has not been accounted for in the above analysis. See table next
section. If we assign the income tax multiplier to that, each of the nest two
years will see a GDP effect of about $4 billion. We will assume that is loss of
GDP prevented, and not added GDP.
GEI First Pass Estimate of Effects of 2010 Tax Law
Click on table for larger image.
At the end of 2011 it is the very preliminary estimate
from GEI that tax revenues of approximately $554 billion will have
been foregone and GDP growth will have benefited by $368 billion. Of course the
tax revenues may in fact be reduced by less than $554 billion if the economy
grows. And of course GDP may not grow as projected.
However, the above caveats aside, an
oversimplification of the preliminary estimates states that we might be
increasing the national debt by $554 billion and gaining only $368 billion in
additional economic activity. Based on these preliminary estimates GDP should
be about 1.6% higher than in 2010. That could mean GDP growth for 2011 around
4%.
If there had no been tax law the GDP hit for 2011
could have been about 0.9% and GDP for 2011 could have been around 1.5%.
The above projections are based on the current GDP
growth rate about 2.5% as a base line.
In return for the GDP boost the national debt will be
increased by about 4% in 2011 over what it would have been with no tax law.
That projection assumes, of course, that the GDP growth rate did not take a
bigger hit with the reduced and withdrawn stimulus. If there turned out to be a
return to recession, tax revenues would take a hit and the deficit would almost
certainly increase at a faster rate in that eventuality.
Considering the possibility that another dip into
recession could be the alternative, the loss of nearly $190 billion in the path
pursued might be a cheap cost compared to another recession which could well
trigger a deep depression.
There are those who will debate my proposition above,
but I will stand with it until I see better data.’
National
/ World
Rev.
Sharpton Calls for FCC Hearings On Talk Radio [ Come on … who takes ape
sharpton seriously? Remember the Tawana, Bwana! Tawana Brawley In
1987, black teenager Tawana Brawley claimed that six white ... of the attackers
by Miss Brawley's advisers: Maddox, the Rev ... Vernon Mason. While Miss
Brawley refused to speak with… www.albertpeia.com/tawana.htm The Man With the Plan of
Surge Surging when these guys were really hurt, as was so with
ape-sharpton’s/tawana brawley’s victims. The whole new jersey, fight that well
deserved sopranos/corrupt/garbage/sewer state www.albertpeia.com/42007newsposts.htm
] Kurt Nimmo
| Federal agency encouraged to go after Obama’s enemies.
Snow and mansion arrest fail to silence WikiLeaks chief (AFP) - AFP - Deep in the snowy English countryside,
Julian Assange spends his time at a friend's mansion defending the WikiLeaks
website following his release on bail from a London prison.
Assange cites McCarthyism as BoA tightens WikiLeaks vice (AFP)
WikiLeaks chief says US preparing to indict him (AP)
Tax
deal marks comeback for president (Washington Post) [ Come on! What parallel universe
are you living in? Drudgereport: OBAMA FALLS TO 40% APPROVE IN
FOXNEWS POLL...
DEFICIT HITS RECORD...
MOODY'S May Cut US Rating on Tax Package...
New spending bill totals $1.1
TRILLION!
Congress Job Approval Rating
Worst in GALLUP History...
FLASHBACK: Obama Promised
5-Day, Public Review of Bills Before Signing; Signs Tax Bill Within Hours of
House Vote...
13 million get unexpected
tax bill from 'tax credit'?
Pelosi skips vote on tax
bill, then shuns signing ceremony...
House votes to extend gov't
funding -- through Tuesday...
Fiscally
Irresponsible Friday: Trading for Magic Beans Davis
‘Good job Congress! Way to take it from your new
Republican Masters! Not since Jack sold his cow for some magic beans has a
deal like this been made by our "leadership" where families earning
between $35,000 and $64,000 go $7,800 further into debt to get a $613 tax break
while
families earning between $5M and $10M get $38,590 and families earning $50M
to $100M get $380,590 and families (or Corporations, of course) earning $500M
to $1Bn get $3,859,000 or about 12,590 times more than the average middle class
family but, then again, they deserve it because – they are that much better
than you are! Face it, unless you are in an income category where your tax
benefit has 5 digits, you are what George Orwell (who worked in England’s
Ministry of Propaganda) called a "Prole." In 1984
the Proles (proletariat) were the vast majority of the populace, the working
class of Oceana. Though the proles are the majority, they are unimportant. The
Party explicitly teaches that the Proles are "natural inferiors who
must be kept in subjection, like animals". As one of the Party
Leaders observes: "the relative freedom of working-class people is
merely a symptom of the contempt in which they are held". It is not
only the Party which regards the Proles as unimportant: the arch-enemy,
Goldstein, dismisses them too, referring to the divisions of High, Middle and
Low people, in which the Low are essentially destined to remain powerless. This
attitude has much in common with the one Huxley shows in Brave New World—the
lower castes are mindless enough to be satisfied with little, and can be relied
on not to be troublesome. [picture] You’re
not going to be any trouble are you? Enjoy your $613, little people. That’s
what, about a month’s worth of gasoline and cable TV? Congratulations on your
voting acumen – you certainly have gotten the Government that you deserve! I
apologize because I had mischaracterized the tax cuts as being fairer to the
Middle Class last
week, when I said it was only an outrage. I thought that families earning
$50,000 would be getting $900, not $613, but it turns out that 12,590 times
$287 is another $3,613,330 that could be given to a Billionaire and they NEED
that money to buy stuff that might create a job while you would only go waste
it on food or clothing. Thank goodness we have elected people who see this
clearly! Congressman
Ryan Paul is one of those people and he points out: "Whose money
is this after all?" It’s not your money that your family is going
$7,800 further into debt to protect – it’s THEIR money. THEY earned it and THEY
are darned well going to keep it. "Hey," you might say,
"I work for THEM – didn’t I make that money and isn’t this OUR country
that’s in debt and needs responsible fiscal policy?" Well, that’s
just Commie talk and you’d better watch yourself – we’ve already sent your name
of to HomeSec so consider yourself on notice… The Proles in this country are
dumb enough but what amazes me is the people who support the tax cuts thinking
you are "one of THEM" when "they" look at
you the same way you step over a homeless man in the streets. $858Bn is the
NATIONAL Debt that we are taking on to fund these cuts. The cuts work out to
about 0.75% of your income and your family share of the additional debt burden
is $7,800 so, unless you are making AT LEAST $1M PER YEAR as a corporation or
individual, this tax cut is a net loss for you. Once you clear that $1M hurdle,
it’s all gravy flowing uphill to your plate! Even better if you are a "Corporate
Citizen" – you have no real debt obligation to this nation because, like
Haliburton and many, many others – you can simply move whenever you want –
to avoid taxation AND prosecution! [picture] As Bloomberg proclaims today
"It’s
a Great Time to Be Rich," saying:
Savvy wealthy Americans would be able to capitalize
on an environment in which their tax rates on income and investments remain at
historic lows. Also, new rules would make it possible to pass on fortunes to
heirs with less fuss and lower taxes than all but a brief period of the past 80
years.
"The climate we’ll have after this
legislation is extremely favorable for wealthy families," says
Jeffrey Cooper, a professor at Quinnipiac University School of Law and a former
estate planner who has studied the history of U.S. tax law.
The tax compromise extends a 15 percent top tax rate
on long-term capital gains and dividends enacted in 2003, which is the lowest
rate since 1933. The top capital-gains rate was 77 percent in 1918 and, since
1921, its highest point was 39.9 percent in 1976 and 1977—though certain gains
could be excluded from taxation. Estate planning experts say their wealthy
clients could be entering an unprecedented period when tax rules—along with low
interest rates and previously existing loopholes—make it easier than ever to
transfer large sums to children and grandchildren. Obama
and other Democrats had sought to limit the use of GRATs, but failed.
"That’s a wonderful technique for parents looking to pass assets on to
children at nearly zero [tax rates]," says Jennifer Immel, senior
wealth planner at PNC Wealth Management. [chart] As
Robert Reich points out: "The only practical effect of adding $858
billion to the deficit will be to put more pressure on Democrats to reduce
non-defense spending of all sorts, including Social Security and Medicare, as
well as education and infrastructure. It is nothing short of Ronald Reagan’s
(and David Stockman’s) notorious 'starve the beast' strategy." As Bob
reminds us, the richest 1 percent of Americans is now taking home a larger
percentage of the nation’s income than at any time since 1928. And we recall
what happened in 1929. He warns: "Unless the vast majority of
Americans has enough purchasing power to keep the economy going without going
ever more deeply into debt, the economy will eventually go over a cliff."
Yeah, I know, just another Liberal worried about the stupid Proles… So let’s
forget feeling sorry for the
losers at the bottom of the economic pyramid and start studying them to
come up with an investment premise. After all, last year, in my 2010 outlook, I
predicted this year would be "A
Tale of Two Economies" as the rich would continue to do very, very
well while the poor would fall further behind. What I didn’t expect was that
the poor would vote for more of the same in the elections but, as PT Barnum
once said, "Never underestimate the stupidity of the American
public." As I said, they now have exactly the Government they deserve so
screw those guys and let’s make some money!We need to examine the family budget
and find the places where money can actually be made selling to people who have
none. Back in last December’s article, I had said: "Let’s not kid
ourselves that anything in this country is being done for the benefit of the
90% who serve us. We provide the basics and there are even many fine companies
who can make money selling those basics like KO, MCD, JNJ, WMT… that we can
invest in." McDonald's (MCD) has flown up 25% this year with Coca-Cola (KO) up 15%
with Walmart (WMT) up just 5% and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
actually down about 3%. Medical equipment (IHI) has been a mixed bag
with Health Care legislation still in question but GE (GE)
has been a great performer (up 20%) and both Universal Health Services (UHS)
and Tenet Healthcare (THC) were the right way to go (only THC only
started working recently). Big Pharma and Biotech still have room to run. TBT has NOT had a good
year but it’s finally starting to improve as our country sinks further and
further into debt – we just didn’t account for QE1 or QE2, for that matter back
in December.
Intercontinental Hotels (IHG) was a good pick and
Continental Airlines (CAL) got bought out but what was I
thinking, liking Orbitz (OWW) better than Priceline (PCLN)?
– never bet against Shatner! Solars like SunPower (SPWRA)
and Suntech (STP) have dropped 50% this year
while MEMC (WFR) (our favorite) is getting cheap
again and Corning (GLW) is my bargain pick of the tech group along with
Cisco (CSCO)
(which wasn’t on last year’s list). All in all, not much has changed but I will
be doing my 2011 outlook over the holidays so let’s keep that household budget
in mind. But as this family with the $100K income now has another $750 to
spend, maybe more if they refinanced their home – I’ll try to do an updated
budget, taking into account higher fuel prices (as we’ve noted, it’s a great
way to FORCE middle class people to spend money) and higher food prices.
Remember, as Mr. Davies
said:
Gas bills, rent bills, tax bills, phone bills
I’m such a wreck but I’m staying alive
I’d really like to change the world
And save it from the mess it’s in
I’m too weak, I’m so thin
I’d like to fly but I can’t even swim
Gotta be a Superman just to survive
We’re still skeptical and bearish until the Dow actually holds 11,500 for a day, so far, we haven’t even closed there – missing it yesterday by just 0.75! Oil fell all the way to 87.75 pre market, giving us yet another (yawn) victory off the $89 line in the futures. This trade will keep working until we’re over $90 and we can expect another test into the open on tax cut fever, but it’s copper we’ll be watching today as well as the Dollar at the 80.50 mark to give us a clue as to intra-day direction. While we may look irresponsible in our spending – that’s only because you are not sitting us next to Europe, who are still spiraling out of control (Ireland just got a FIVE (5!) notch downgrade from Moody’s. Generally you have to be hit with a nuclear missile for that to happen) – even as they pass bigger and bigger bailout deals.’
This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits
(these lower dollar, hyperinflationary currency manipulations / translations to
froth paper stocks, and insurmountable debt will end quite badly as in last
crash and worse)!
Fiscally
Irresponsible Friday: Trading for Magic Beans Davis
‘Good job Congress! Way to take it from your new
Republican Masters! Not since Jack sold his cow for some magic beans has a
deal like this been made by our "leadership" where families earning
between $35,000 and $64,000 go $7,800 further into debt to get a $613 tax break
while
families earning between $5M and $10M get $38,590 and families earning $50M
to $100M get $380,590 and families (or Corporations, of course) earning $500M
to $1Bn get $3,859,000 or about 12,590 times more than the average middle class
family but, then again, they deserve it because – they are that much better
than you are! Face it, unless you are in an income category where your tax
benefit has 5 digits, you are what George Orwell (who worked in England’s
Ministry of Propaganda) called a "Prole." In 1984
the Proles (proletariat) were the vast majority of the populace, the working
class of Oceana. Though the proles are the majority, they are unimportant. The
Party explicitly teaches that the Proles are "natural inferiors who
must be kept in subjection, like animals". As one of the Party
Leaders observes: "the relative freedom of working-class people is
merely a symptom of the contempt in which they are held". It is not
only the Party which regards the Proles as unimportant: the arch-enemy,
Goldstein, dismisses them too, referring to the divisions of High, Middle and
Low people, in which the Low are essentially destined to remain powerless. This
attitude has much in common with the one Huxley shows in Brave New World—the
lower castes are mindless enough to be satisfied with little, and can be relied
on not to be troublesome. [picture] You’re
not going to be any trouble are you? Enjoy your $613, little people. That’s
what, about a month’s worth of gasoline and cable TV? Congratulations on your
voting acumen – you certainly have gotten the Government that you deserve! I
apologize because I had mischaracterized the tax cuts as being fairer to the
Middle Class last
week, when I said it was only an outrage. I thought that families earning
$50,000 would be getting $900, not $613, but it turns out that 12,590 times
$287 is another $3,613,330 that could be given to a Billionaire and they NEED
that money to buy stuff that might create a job while you would only go waste
it on food or clothing. Thank goodness we have elected people who see this
clearly! Congressman
Ryan Paul is one of those people and he points out: "Whose money
is this after all?" It’s not your money that your family is going
$7,800 further into debt to protect – it’s THEIR money. THEY earned it and THEY
are darned well going to keep it. "Hey," you might say,
"I work for THEM – didn’t I make that money and isn’t this OUR country
that’s in debt and needs responsible fiscal policy?" Well, that’s
just Commie talk and you’d better watch yourself – we’ve already sent your name
of to HomeSec so consider yourself on notice… The Proles in this country are
dumb enough but what amazes me is the people who support the tax cuts thinking
you are "one of THEM" when "they" look at
you the same way you step over a homeless man in the streets. $858Bn is the
NATIONAL Debt that we are taking on to fund these cuts. The cuts work out to
about 0.75% of your income and your family share of the additional debt burden
is $7,800 so, unless you are making AT LEAST $1M PER YEAR as a corporation or
individual, this tax cut is a net loss for you. Once you clear that $1M hurdle,
it’s all gravy flowing uphill to your plate! Even better if you are a "Corporate
Citizen" – you have no real debt obligation to this nation because, like
Haliburton and many, many others – you can simply move whenever you want –
to avoid taxation AND prosecution! [picture] As Bloomberg proclaims today
"It’s
a Great Time to Be Rich," saying:
Savvy wealthy Americans would be able to capitalize
on an environment in which their tax rates on income and investments remain at
historic lows. Also, new rules would make it possible to pass on fortunes to
heirs with less fuss and lower taxes than all but a brief period of the past 80
years.
"The climate we’ll have after this
legislation is extremely favorable for wealthy families," says
Jeffrey Cooper, a professor at Quinnipiac University School of Law and a former
estate planner who has studied the history of U.S. tax law.
The tax compromise extends a 15 percent top tax rate
on long-term capital gains and dividends enacted in 2003, which is the lowest
rate since 1933. The top capital-gains rate was 77 percent in 1918 and, since
1921, its highest point was 39.9 percent in 1976 and 1977—though certain gains
could be excluded from taxation. Estate planning experts say their wealthy
clients could be entering an unprecedented period when tax rules—along with low
interest rates and previously existing loopholes—make it easier than ever to
transfer large sums to children and grandchildren. Obama
and other Democrats had sought to limit the use of GRATs, but failed.
"That’s a wonderful technique for parents looking to pass assets on to
children at nearly zero [tax rates]," says Jennifer Immel, senior
wealth planner at PNC Wealth Management. [chart] As
Robert Reich points out: "The only practical effect of adding $858
billion to the deficit will be to put more pressure on Democrats to reduce
non-defense spending of all sorts, including Social Security and Medicare, as
well as education and infrastructure. It is nothing short of Ronald Reagan’s
(and David Stockman’s) notorious 'starve the beast' strategy." As Bob
reminds us, the richest 1 percent of Americans is now taking home a larger
percentage of the nation’s income than at any time since 1928. And we recall
what happened in 1929. He warns: "Unless the vast majority of
Americans has enough purchasing power to keep the economy going without going
ever more deeply into debt, the economy will eventually go over a cliff."
Yeah, I know, just another Liberal worried about the stupid Proles… So let’s
forget feeling sorry for the
losers at the bottom of the economic pyramid and start studying them to
come up with an investment premise. After all, last year, in my 2010 outlook, I
predicted this year would be "A
Tale of Two Economies" as the rich would continue to do very, very
well while the poor would fall further behind. What I didn’t expect was that
the poor would vote for more of the same in the elections but, as PT Barnum
once said, "Never underestimate the stupidity of the American
public." As I said, they now have exactly the Government they deserve so
screw those guys and let’s make some money!We need to examine the family budget
and find the places where money can actually be made selling to people who have
none. Back in last December’s article, I had said: "Let’s not kid
ourselves that anything in this country is being done for the benefit of the
90% who serve us. We provide the basics and there are even many fine companies
who can make money selling those basics like KO, MCD, JNJ, WMT… that we can
invest in." McDonald's (MCD) has flown up 25% this year with Coca-Cola (KO) up 15%
with Walmart (WMT) up just 5% and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
actually down about 3%. Medical equipment (IHI) has been a mixed bag with
Health Care legislation still in question but GE (GE)
has been a great performer (up 20%) and both Universal Health Services (UHS)
and Tenet Healthcare (THC) were the right way to go (only THC only
started working recently). Big Pharma and Biotech still have room to run. TBT has NOT had a good
year but it’s finally starting to improve as our country sinks further and
further into debt – we just didn’t account for QE1 or QE2, for that matter back
in December.
Intercontinental Hotels (IHG) was a good pick and
Continental Airlines (CAL) got bought out but what was I
thinking, liking Orbitz (OWW) better than Priceline (PCLN)?
– never bet against Shatner! Solars like SunPower (SPWRA)
and Suntech (STP) have dropped 50% this year
while MEMC (WFR) (our favorite) is getting cheap
again and Corning (GLW) is my bargain pick of the tech group along with
Cisco (CSCO)
(which wasn’t on last year’s list). All in all, not much has changed but I will
be doing my 2011 outlook over the holidays so let’s keep that household budget
in mind. But as this family with the $100K income now has another $750 to
spend, maybe more if they refinanced their home – I’ll try to do an updated
budget, taking into account higher fuel prices (as we’ve noted, it’s a great
way to FORCE middle class people to spend money) and higher food prices.
Remember, as Mr. Davies
said:
Gas bills, rent bills, tax bills, phone bills
I’m such a wreck but I’m staying alive
I’d really like to change the world
And save it from the mess it’s in
I’m too weak, I’m so thin
I’d like to fly but I can’t even swim
Gotta be a Superman just to survive
We’re still skeptical and bearish until the Dow actually holds 11,500 for a day, so far, we haven’t even closed there – missing it yesterday by just 0.75! Oil fell all the way to 87.75 pre market, giving us yet another (yawn) victory off the $89 line in the futures. This trade will keep working until we’re over $90 and we can expect another test into the open on tax cut fever, but it’s copper we’ll be watching today as well as the Dollar at the 80.50 mark to give us a clue as to intra-day direction. While we may look irresponsible in our spending – that’s only because you are not sitting us next to Europe, who are still spiraling out of control (Ireland just got a FIVE (5!) notch downgrade from Moody’s. Generally you have to be hit with a nuclear missile for that to happen) – even as they pass bigger and bigger bailout deals.
The Cummulative National Debt.htm
Tough
Environment for Housing Should Persist in 2011Suttmeier ‘The rise in the
10-Year yield is overdone and my semiannual pivot at 3.479 has become a magnet.
Comex Gold closed above its 50-day simple moving average at $1369.10, and
closes have been above this support since August 12th. Nymex Crude oil remains
influenced by my weekly pivot at $88.76. The euro has been influenced by my
quarterly pivot at 1.3318. The Dow Industrial Average remains overbought on
both daily and weekly charts and gains above 11,500 have not been sustained so
far. Stocks are overvalued according to ValuEngine with fifteen of sixteen
sectors overvalued. The major averages straddle this week’s risky levels /
pivots at 11,467 Dow, 1242.9 SPX, 2643 NASDAQ, 5141 Transports, 770.13 Russell
2000, and 428.02 Sox. Foreclosure freezes have put a temporary hold on home
repossessions. 10-Year Note – (3.471)
My daily value level is 3.753 with a semiannual pivot at 3.479, and weekly
pivot at 3.176, annual pivots at 2.999 and 2.813, and quarterly, semiannual and
monthly risky levels at 2.265, 2.249 and 1.949. [chart] Courtesy of
Thomson / Reuters Comex Gold – ($1370.7) Daily, quarterly, semiannual and
annual value levels are $1347.9, $1306.4, $1260.8, $1218.7 and $1115.2 with a
weekly pivot at $1377.4, and monthly risky level at $1443.5. click on
charts to enlarge [chart] Courtesy of
Thomson / Reuters Nymex Crude Oil – ($87.86) Semiannual, annual and monthly
value levels are $83.94, $77.05 and $75.50 with daily and weekly pivots at
$87.56 and $88.76, and semiannual and annual risky levels at $96.53 and
$97.29. [chart] Courtesy of
Thomson / Reuters The Euro – (1.3237) My monthly value level is 1.2500 with
daily, weekly and quarterly pivots at 1.3246, 1.3227 and 1.3318, and semiannual
risky level at 1.4733. [chart] Courtesy of
Thomson / Reuters Daily Dow: (11,499) Semiannual, annual, monthly and quarterly
value levels are 10,558, 10,379, 10,325 and 8,523 with annual and semiannual
pivots at 11,235 and 11,296, and daily and weekly pivots at 11,499 and 11,467. [chart] Courtesy of
Thomson / Reuters Foreclosure Freezes Causes Steep Drop in Home Repossessions
Home repossessions dropped 28% in November sequentially and 12% year over year.
Even so, the year to date total is around 980,000 according the RealtyTrac.
Once we get into 2011, the pace of foreclosures should pick up again as the
freezes end and as improved documentation practices are put into place by
lenders. The tough environment for housing should persist in 2011; high
unemployment, a continued weak housing market, and tighter lending standards.
With 10.8 million households or 22.5% of all homes with a mortgage were
underwater at the end of the third quarter. There are 5 million mortgages that
are at least two month in arrears, yet many of them have not even entered the
foreclosure process. According to Trulia Inc there is ten months of housing
inventory up for sale and in many communities sellers are cutting prices across
the country. The average price cut is 12% from a year ago. Until the housing
market shows a sustainable recovery, job creation will lag and the economic
recovery will remain weak as the FOMC stated on Tuesday.’
Ireland Rating Lowered Five Levels by Moody's With Threat of More to Come Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Daniel Gros, director of the Centre for European Policy Studies, talks about Moody's Investors Service's downgrade of Ireland and the outlook for the economy. Moody's Slashes Ireland's Rating as EU Wraps Up Summit New York Times Moody's Slashes Irish Debt to 3 Grades Above Junk ABC News BusinessWeek - BBC News - Reuters
Tough
Environment for Housing Should Persist in 2011 Midnight Trader 4:15 PM, Dec 17, 2010 – ‘
GLOBAL SENTIMENT
UPSIDE MOVERS
(+) ORCL continues evening gain after earnings, guidance beat.
(+) TTWO continues evening gain after Q4 beat.
(+) RIMM continues evening gain after beat.
(+) ICO reportedly gets interest from Massey Energy.
(+) YRCW court says ABF Freight can not sue company.
(+) MI sold to BMO Financial.
DOWNSIDE MOVERS
(-) AIB, IRE down as Moody's cuts Ireland debt rating.
(-) AZN says Brilanta study to be delayed.
MARKET DIRECTION
Better-than-expected earnings results from Oracle (ORCL) and
Research in Motion (RIMM) buoyed U.S. markets but gains were
tempered by a Moody's downgrade of Ireland's debt. European debt issues were an
overhang for much of the day as traders worry that despite aid packages cobbled
together for the likes of Ireland and Greece, those economies and others in
Europe remain shaky. U.S. traders got some added good news from the Conference
Board as the index of leading indicators gained 1.1% in November, up from a
0.4% rise in October and yet another sign the U.S. economy is on the mend.
Moody's downgraded Ireland's government-bond rating by five notches and said
the country had a weak economic outlook.
U.S. November leading economic indicators rose 1.1%, the biggest gain since
March, but only matching Street views. Nine of the 10 component indicators
included in the index rose in November, with the largest positive contribution
coming from the index of supplier deliveries. Building permits were the only
negative contributor.
Also, lawmakers approved a two-year across-the-board extension of Bush-era tax
cuts just before midnight Thursday by a vote of 277-148. The bill, already
passed by the Senate, now goes to President Barack Obama for signature. The
bill includes a 2% rollback of Social Security payroll taxes, extends
unemployment insurance for 13 months, and brings back the estate tax at 35% for
two years on estates of more than $5 million. Wall Street has given mixed
reviews to the plan, believing it may help stimulate a weak economic recovery
but at the cost of even deeper deficit burdens.
Looking forward to the a holiday-shortened trading week, there are several
names on the earnings docket that should see strong trading interest. On
Monday, Adobe (ADBE), Darden's Restaurants (DRI),
Jabil (JBL)
and Paychex (PAYX)
report financials. Hovnanian (HOV), Nike (NKE) and Red
Hat (RHT)
are due with financials on Tuesday, followed by Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY)
and Micron Technology (MU) on Wednesday. No significant earnings
reports are due on Thursday, and U.S. markets are closed Friday in observance
of Christmas Day.
On the economic front, MBA mortgage applications; GDP; existing home sales;
FHFA home price index; and crude inventories are slated for release on
Wednesday. On Thursday, traders will get a look at personal income/spending;
PCE prices; durable orders; initial claims; University of Michigan sentiment;
and new home sales data.
In Friday's company news:
Shares of InterMune (ITMN) soared after the company said that the
European Medicines Agency "adopted a positive opinion" to allow the
marketing of its lung drug Esbriet. The drug is being developed for the
treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. This is a a rare, fatal condition
where lungs suffer scarring due to unknown causes.
Shares of Google (GOOG) saw modest downside pressure as the the Internet
search giant faces antitrust complaints in the European Union from publishers
who say that the company discriminates against their sites, Bloomberg reported.
The EU took over part of a complaint that was originally filed with Germany's
antitrust agency in January. The EU is looking into whether Google
discriminated against competing services in its search results.
Hewlett Packard Co. (HPQ) shares were near flat even after the
computer maker said it faces a wider federal investigation into alleged payment
of kickbacks to sell its products overseas. The joint U.S. Justice Department
and Securities and Exchange Commission probe is now looking into bribery
allegations in Austria, Serbia, the Netherlands and the Commonwealth of
Independent States, according to a regulatory filing by the company. HP is
already under investigation in Russia and Germany for alleged bribes dating
back as far as 10 years ago.
ADRs of AstraZeneca (AZN) were down in the regular session after the
U.S. Food and Drug Administration asked for additional analysis of data from a
study of Brilinta. Analysts said the demand for extra analysis is likely to
delay final approval of the drug by six to twelve months.
Oracle (ORCL)
was a solid gainer in regular session trading after posting strong results and
guidance late Thursday.
Allied Irish Banks (AIB) and Bank of Ireland (IRE) were lower
after Moody's downgraded Ireland's credit rating by five notches. Moody's cut
Ireland's rating to Baa1 with a negative outlook from Aa2 and warned further
downgrades could follow if Dublin was unable to stabilize its debt situation.
Commodities finished mostly higher with both crude oil and gold futures ending
in the gainers column.
Crude oil for January delivery finished up $0.32, or 0.34%, to $88.02 a barrel.
In other energy futures, heating oil was down 0.07% to $2.47 a gallon while
natural gas rose 0.47%, to $4.06 per million British thermal units.
Gold futures logged gains during the day amid fresh worries over the U.S.
budget deficit, MarketWatch reported.
Gold for February delivery finished up 0.6% to $1,379.20 an ounce. In other
metal futures, silver rose 1.47% to $29.20 a troy ounce while copper was up
1.29% to $4.16 a pound.’
In
Marketing of a New Mortgage Fund, Pimco Lists Former Bush Officials New
York Times | Washington’s revolving door where officials leave
government to pursue lucrative opportunities working with industries they once
dealt with while in public office.
National
/ World
Wikileaks
founder freed on bail (Washington
Post) [ ‘… Moore (correctly) asserts
that Assange
is under attack solely because he had the courage to expose American war
crimes. Moore writes:
We
were taken to war in Iraq on a lie. Hundreds of thousands are now dead. Just
imagine if the men who planned this war crime back in 2002 had had a WikiLeaks
to deal with. They might not have been able to pull it off. The only reason
they thought they could get away with it was because they had a guaranteed
cloak of secrecy....
So
why is WikiLeaks, after performing such an important public service, under such
vicious attack? Because they have outed and embarrassed those who have covered
up the truth…’
CLINTON BODY COUNT
By: Ether Zone
Staff
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored A viral You Tube upload of
one of Alex Jones’ most popular feature films ‘The Obama Deception’ has been
censored following a spur of the moment campaign to elevate the movie’s title
to the top of the major internet search engines. In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
CLINTON BODY COUNT
By: Ether Zone
Staff
Here is the latest body
count that we have. All of these people have been connected with the Clintons
in some form or another. We have not included any deaths that could not be
verified or connected to the Clinton scandals. All deaths are listed
chronologically by date. This list is current and accurate to the best of our
knowledge as of January 13, 1999 August 1, 2000. (see complete list http://albertpeia.com/bodycount.htm )
Susan Coleman: Rumors were circulating in Arkansas of an affair
with Bill Clinton. She was found dead with a gunshot wound to the head at 7 1/2
months pregnant. Death was an apparent suicide.
Kevin Ives & Don Henry: Initial cause of death was reported to be the result
of falling asleep on a railroad track in Arkansas on August 23, 1987. This
ruling was reported by the State medical examiner Fahmy Malak. Later it was
determined that Kevin died from a crushed skull prior to being placed on the
tracks. Don had been stabbed in the back. Rumors indicate that they might have
stumbled upon a Mena drug operation.
Paul Olson: A Federal witness in investigations to drug money
corruption in Chicago politics, Paul had just finished 2 days of FBI interviews
when his plane ride home crashed, killing Paul and 130 others on Sept 8 1994. The
Sept. 15, 1994 Tempe Tribune newspaper reported that the FBI suspected that a
bomb had brought down the airplane.
Calvin Walraven: 24 year on Walraven was a key witness against Jocelyn
Elder's son's drug case. Walraven was found dead in his apartment with a
gunshot wound to the head. Tim Hover, a Little Rock police spokesman says no
foul play is suspected.
Alan G. Whicher: Oversaw Clinton's Secret Service detail. In October 1994
Whicher was transferred to the Secret Service field office in the Murrah Building
in Oklahoma City. Whatever warning was given to the BATF agents in that
building did not reach Alan Whicher, who died in the bomb blast of April 19th
1995.
Ron Brown:. The Commerce Secretary died on April 3, 1996, in an
Air Force jet carrying Brown and 34 others, including 14 business executives on
a trade mission to Croatia, crashed into a mountainside. The Air Force, in a
22-volume report issued in June of 1996, confirmed its initial judgment that
the crash resulted from pilot errors and faulty navigation equipment At the
time of Brown's death, Independent Counsel Daniel Pearson was seeking to
determine whether Brown had engaged in several sham financial transactions with
longtime business partner Nolanda Hill shortly before he became secretary of
commerce.
Charles Meissner: died: UNK - Following Ron Brown's death, John Huang was
placed on a Commerce Department contract that allowed him to retain his
security clearance by Charles Meissner. Shortly thereafter, Meissner died in
the crash of a small plane. He was an Assistant Secretary of Commerce
for International Economic Policy.
Barbara Wise: Wise a 14-year Commerce Department employee found dead and
partially naked in her office following a long weekend. She worked in the same
section as John Huang. Officially, she is said to have died of natural causes.
Mary C. Mahoney: 25, murdered at the Georgetown Starbuck's coffee bar over
the 4th of July '97 weekend. She was a former White House intern who worked
with John Huang. Apparently she knew Monica Lewinsky and her sexual encounters
with Bill Clinton. Although not verified, it has been said that Lewinsky told
Linda Tripp that she did not want to end up like Mahoney.
---------------------------------------------------------
Krauthammer: Comeback
kid (Washington Post) [ While
getting almost everything (ie., perpetual wars, economy, political scenario,
etc.) wrong, almost all of the time, with a gaunt, ghastly visage that’s almost
unbearable to view much less listen to, krauthammer certainly gets this wrong.
Where do they get such ‘professional commentators’ as him? After all, though
given the benefit of every possible doubt, wobama’s failure has been consistent
with a profile of predictable disfunctionality, and his jive-talking b*** s***
belying his every flawed action is too egregious too dispel from memory which
of course is reflected in all polls and probably much worse. ]
Pearlstein:
GOP and tax cuts? Now that's rich. (Washington Post) [ Why is it that
today, of all times in american history (albeit a relatively short and fudged
one at that), people are particularly afraid to call ‘a spade a spade’. After
all, america is defacto bankrupt and pervasively corrupt. Moreover,
economically speaking, the principle of marginal propensity to consume
militates against the egalitarian treatment accorded the rich relative to the
growing ranks and magnitude of the poor in the u.s.. Practically speaking, this
irrational scenario in light of the fraudulent wall street scams, inter alia,
still in large part unprosecuted, has become all too familiar in the
everdeclining america we now see. It brings to mind that axiom prominently
displayed in that seminal (masterfully done by Francis Ford Coppola)
‘Godfather’ film (the source of inspiration and trendy rationalization for what
have now become ubiquitous mob scenarios infesting america and now manifest in
every stripe, color, persuasion; and particularly, the especially nefarious
government mob.),‘Behind Every Fortune, a Crime’. Even if that wasn’t true then
(but probably was), it most assuredly is true in america now (ie., wall street
frauds, war profiteering, etc.). ]
2010: The Year of Reflation The Housing Time Bomb ‘ Since it looks like the
holiday trade is on, I thought I would look back and see how various sectors
performed in 2010: [chart] (Click
to enlarge)
My Take: If you were an inflationist you did pretty darn well
last year. Commodities were clearly the play of the year. I find it kinda funny
to look at the S&P 500 performance relative to other investment
options.CNBC would love to make you believe that buying stocks was and always
is the best thing to do. As you can see above, this was clearly not the case in
2010. Ironically, bonds gave a lot back since November when the Fed started
it's brilliant QE strategy.You can thank the Fed's reckless policies (along
with lots of Chindians) for the commodity run. The dollar has held up well as
of late as a result of the European debt fiasco but it's clearly evident above
that the market believes inflation is coming.If you were a deflationist in 2010
you pretty much got slaughtered. The classic deflation trade is to go short
stocks and energy and go long the dollar and bonds. So much for that idea in
2010.Personally, I was pleased with my year for the most part. I did well with
gold and silver. My bond funds did well thanks to PIMCO. I lost a little on
some short hedges but I was glad I owned them when we dipped this summer. My
cash didn't do anything thanks to low rates. In fact, I probably lost money
from an inflation adjusted standpoint but that's OK. The security of knowing
it's there is invaluable from my perspective at this point in the game.
Where Do We Go From Here? This is the million dollar question.
I will touch on this today but stay tuned for a THTB Top 10 prediction list for
2011. I see this done a lot and i liked it, so I figured I would give it a
shot.I think a lot of what happens in 2010 will come down to the Fed, the bond
market, and politics. I think Obama put himself in a bad spot by passing the
tax cuts. I say this because Washington DC is going to change drastically
starting next year. The House and the Senate will both be filled with several
new tea partying Republicans who are going to want to cut spending. As the
deficit worsens we will see increasing pressure to do something to stop it.This
is going to lead to job cuts and other austerity measures beginning in 2011. I
don't expect anything drastic but it will start nonetheless. Obama is going to
end up looking bad when the Republicans start cutting because the middle class
are the ones who are going to feel the pain. Obama will then get painted the
President who gave the middle class the shaft after giving tax cuts to the
rich. This will be a political nightmare for him down the line and ironically I
think the left may hate on him on this issue as much as the right does.
The Bottom Line We have clearly reached a fork in the road
when it comes to the markets and the economy. Unemployment remains high and is
getting worse. Our deficit is on the verge of not being manageable as bond
yields continue to rise.Stocks have priced in a strong 2011 recovery which I
don't think is going to happen. I can't see any material recovery without a
nice uptick in jobs. The only reason we had a recovery this year was because
the government was willing to put it on it's credit card. The economy would
have been miserable this year without their handouts.The Fed would love to
rinse and repeat the same thing this year which is why we got QE2. The problem
with this idea is the Fed now has the bond market to deal with. They aren't too
keen on this idea. They are becoming increasingly worried about our deficits
because they see no recovery that can pull us out of this mess.The Fed doesn't
see the recovery either. If they did then they would have never pushed the QE2
button. Bernanke knows this can't work but he did it anyway because there was
no other option. The after shocks are still being felt from our
"printing" announcement. Bonds have collapsed and commodities have
soared ever since.This is going to be felt down the line by stocks as increased
costs hurt margins. Remember: Oil remains stubbornly high and you need oil to
make pretty much everything in our economy. The bottom line is, I expect lower
stock prices in our future as the market realizes that the great 2011 recovery
was nothing but a pipedream.
CPI
Indicating a Market Turning Point Is at Hand? Jin ‘Wednesday, the CPI for November
2010 was released. The headline CPI increased by 1.1% over November 2009. The
core CPI increased by 0.8% over the same month in 2009. Both readings are well
below the Federal Reserve’s long term target inflation rate of 2%, reinforcing
the Fed’s worrying about deflation rather than inflation. And worry it should,
the Fed. QE2 has not shown any success in its intended impact of improving
employment and lifting inflation in the U.S. But China and a large part of emerging
economies have already felt the heat. Nearly all commodities have seen their
prices rise sharply in the past two months. The latest CPI growth rate from
China is 5.1%, the highest in over two years. The Fed might have had this
scenario in mind when the FOMC decided to implement QE2 last November. In
addition to stimulating business investment in the U.S., QE2 causes inflation
to rise in emerging economies, which implicitly reduces the cost advantage
enjoyed by those regions. The idea then, is that the imbalance between the U.S.
and emerging economies could be somehow corrected. However, as the global
supply chain is tightly integrated today, the U.S. may have to bear the costs
of QE2 before the benefits are felt. The reason is simple. So far, commodity
prices reacted much more strongly to QE2 than CPI in the U.S. The pace of
commodity price appreciation is so fast that the adjustment in the global
supply chain has not occurred yet. U.S. corporations have already seen their
input price hiking. However, since unemployment rates have stayed above 9% for
nearly 20 months now, consumer prices in the U.S. have little room to increase
further. As companies cannot pass the higher costs of raw materials to final
consumers, in the short term, there are two likely results: The first result is
that corporations will have to cut their profit margins since they cannot fully
pass their increased costs to consumers. Lower profit margin means less
incentive to invest and expand. Another result is to cut other costs (mainly
labor costs) to offset rising materials prices. Cutting labor cost will reduce
wages, increase unemployment and then put more pressure on consumers. Both
results spell trouble for the whole economy and the stock market. Historical
data has proven the above point. The following chart presents the monthly
S&P 500 Index and the growth rate of U.S. core CPI minus the growth rate of
the Import Price Index from China to the U.S. Since China is often the last
step in the supply chain- in assembling and shipping goods to the U.S.- the
growth rate of the Import Price Index from China could measure the production
costs of U.S. companies (a better measurement than PPI in the U.S.). Click
to enlarge: [chart]
The chart shows that the S&P 500 largely lagged the growth rate of core CPI
ex the growth rate of import prices from China. More importantly, whenever the
core CPI ex-import price moved across zero, a major turning point of the stock
market happened in a very short period thereafter or even at the same time. The
import price index from China has only been available since December 2003. In
the past seven years, the growth rate of core CPI ex-import price from China
has only moved across zero twice. It first fell below zero during the period
between the end of 2007 and the beginning of 2008. The S&P 500 index
reached its peak during that period. Then, the rate rose above zero at the
beginning of 2009. One month later, the S&P 500 index touched the bottom.
After the CPI release Wednesday, the growth rate of core CPI ex-import price is
now at 0.4%, continuing its downward trend. Given rising inflation expectations
in China and the danger of deflation in the U.S. right now, that rate is
falling below zero again. Companies will bear the increasing costs and see
their profits fall. Is the next turning point for the stock market right in
front of us now?’
Red Cross offers bleak assessment of Afghan
war (Washington Post) [ Well at least someone’s telling the truth
about pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america’s destructive,
self-destructive, self-defeating perpetual war in Afghanistan … ‘…As the war affects more areas of the country, a
growing number of Afghans have been caught in crossfire and thousands have fled
their home towns, Reto Stocker, the head of the ICRC here, said during a news
conference in Kabul. "We are entering a new, rather murky phase in the
conflict in which the proliferation of armed groups threatens the ability of
humanitarian organizations to reach the people who need their help,"
Stocker said. "The conflict is now in its 10th year. It is spreading.
There is no end in sight." The assessment was unusually bleak and blunt
for an organization that tends to be circumspect in public. ICRC officials in
Afghanistan have a deep and nuanced understanding of the conflict because they
have open lines of communication with all major armed groups, including the
Taliban…’ ]
Senate
overwhelmingly approves tax-cut deal
(Washington Post) [ Yeah … you
just have to shake your head and wonder with Davis … Timid
Tuesday: Is it Safe? Davis
‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are
simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of
global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form
of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh)
is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut
$100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while
continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1%
each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool
all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT
THERE! ‘]
A far-reaching $858 billion tax plan negotiated by the White House and
Republican leaders sails through the Senate and is heading for a vote Thursday
in the House, as lawmakers rush to prevent a New Year's tax hike from striking
virtually every American household.
As you examine
the long-term trends, you quickly come to realize that the U.S. is trapped in
an endless spiral of debt, the middle class is being wiped out, the U.S. dollar
is being destroyed and America is rapidly becoming a post-industrial wasteland.
Afghan
war's next big debate: Troop withdrawal –‘"differences of opinion" persist over
the long-term goals ‘ (Washington Post) [ Long-term goals? What goals? You mean
defacto bankruptcy of the nation … Already mission accomplished … Increase
reasons for blowback and global anti-american sentiment … Again, mission
accomplished … Greater reason to
disapprove ‘leadership’ … Once again,
mission accomplished … Drudgereport: DEFICIT HITS RECORD...
MOODY'S May Cut US Rating on Tax Package...
New spending bill totals $1.1
TRILLION!
Congress Job Approval Rating
Worst in GALLUP History...
Socialist president plays
host to capitalism...
REPORT: Obama told lawmakers
not passing tax deal could end presidency...
A $48 billion earmark... … and, long-term as defined by at best,
election cycles . ] Despite signs of progress from Obama's main
counterinsurgency strategy, "differences of opinion" persist over the
long-term goals.
QE2
Is a Failure Higher Yields Will Hurt Overbought Stocks Suttmeier ‘The primary purpose of QE2 was to
force US Treasury yields lower to help consumers and home owners on Main Street
USA. Since October 8th the yield on the 10-Year is 117 basis points higher,
which in my opinion makes “QE2 A FAILURE”. Comex Gold remains between this
week’s value level at $1377.4 and my monthly risky level at $1443.5. Nymex
Crude oil is back below my weekly pivot at $88.76 this week. The euro is just
above my quarterly pivot at 1.3318. The Dow Industrial Average closed above
11,444.08 to confirm another Dow Theory Buy Signal, but stocks are overbought
on both daily and weekly charts. This week’s risky levels / pivots are 1242.9
SPX, 2643 NASDAQ, 5141 Transports, 770.13 Russell 2000, and 428.02 Sox. Stocks
are overbought on both daily and weekly charts and ValuEngine shows fifteen of
sixteen sectors overvalued. The Fed’s concerns are real, but their policy
decisions are a failure.
10-Year Note – (3.453) Daily and semiannual pivots are 3.465 and
3.479 with a weekly risky level at 3.176, and annual pivots at 2.999 and 2.813,
and quarterly, semiannual and monthly risky levels at 2.265, 2.249 and 1.949. The
rise in yields is overdone technically.
Courtesy of
Thomson / Reuters
Comex Gold – ($1397.6) Weekly, Quarterly, semiannual and annual
value levels are $1377.4, $1306.4, $1260.8, $1218.7 and $1115.2 with a daily
pivot at $1410.4, and monthly risky level at $1443.5. Gold has a negative
divergence in momentum.
click on
charts to enlarge
Courtesy of
Thomson / Reuters
Nymex Crude
Oil – ($88.30) Semiannual, annual
and monthly value levels are $83.94, $77.05 and $75.50 with a weekly pivot at
$88.76, and daily and weekly pivots at $88.92 and $88.76, and semiannual and
annual risky levels at $96.53 and $97.29. Oil has negative MOJO.
Courtesy of
Thomson / Reuters
The Euro – (1.3384) Weekly and monthly value levels are 1.3227
and 1.2500 with quarterly and daily pivots at 1.3318 and 1.3417, and semiannual
risky level at 1.4733.
Courtesy of
Thomson / Reuters
Daily Dow: (11,477) Semiannual, annual, monthly and quarterly
value levels are 10,558, 10,379, 10,325 and 8,523 with annual and semiannual
pivots at 11,235 and 11,296, and weekly and daily pivots at 11,467 and 11,446. The
Dow is extremely overbought with overvalued fundamentals.
Courtesy of
Thomson / Reuters
Fed Statement
for the December 14th FOMC Meeting – Caution Prevails
·
Information received
since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November confirms that the
economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to
bring down unemployment.
·
Household spending is
increasing at a moderate pace, but remains constrained by high unemployment,
modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit.
·
Business spending on
equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year,
while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak.
·
Employers remain
reluctant to add to payrolls.
·
The housing sector
continues to be depressed.
·
Longer-term inflation
expectations have remained stable, but measures of underlying inflation have
continued to trend downward.
QE2 Continues as Planned
·
The Committee will
maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its
securities holdings.
·
The Committee intends
to purchase $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the
second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month.
·
The Committee will
maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and
continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of
resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation
expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal
funds rate for an extended period.
My Analysis – The low interest rate policy has not worked. QE2 is not working as
intended, as US Treasury yields are rising not declining. The Federal Reserve
should never have taken the federal funds rate below 3%, because zero to one
percent rates for Wall Street simply ignites commodity speculation and creates
bubbles including the housing bubble, which is still deflating. Low rates make
it impossible for folks on Main Street living on a fixed income to earn money
market rates high enough to drive consumer spending. The Fed’s concern about
deflation is ludicrous, as food and energy prices move higher day to day. You
cannot have a sustained economic recovery without a program that helps the
housing market and resolves the problems that persist among community banks
across the country.’
Europe Concerns Resurface: Dave's Daily - ‘It seems the on again off again
euro zone troubles just keep coming. Wednesday it was Spain's turn in the
spotlight with threats of credit rating downgrades. So, just when you think
things are "fixed" they come unglued. This affair caused the dollar
to rise and commodity related markets to fall as many investors get whipsawed
about. Despite the rise in the dollar and another bout of POMO
bonds continued to
sell-off. It makes one wonder at the Fed's policies frankly since the effect
thus far has been the opposite of policy intentions. Further, the rise in
yields will eventually become a negative for equity investors as higher yields
compete for investor dollars…’
Markets Are Overbought, But On With the Party Tradermark ‘The unshortable market continues. Even losing some of the
"generals" doesn't seem to matter anymore. We are now at the halfway
point of December and despite a huge run for the month, the two major indices
(I don't consider Dow Jones to be useful as it is 30 stocks and price weighted)
have each only suffered one day of drops: A crushing 0.1% drop in the S&P
500 on Dec. 6 and a debilitating 0.5% loss in the Nasdaq on the 13th. Other
than that, every other day is a non-stop win (or tie).
[chart]
Just another in a series of V shaped moves (that were once rare) since QE1
began. Truly the only time this market acted normally these past 1.75 years was
in a short period in late spring/early summer of 2010 when we were in between
QE1 and QE1.5 (when the Fed decided it needed to begin buying Treasuries to
keep its balance sheet from shrinking and before QE2 was announced) Each time I
think to myself this market is overbought and needs a rest, I have to remember
- this is not a market with normal price discovery ... overbought is only a
state of mind. Dick Arms stated this morning, using his Arms index, the market
is the most overbought in the nearly 50 years since he started the measure.
It has been nearly 50 years since I invented the Arms
Index (also known as the TRIN) and wrote about it in an article for Barrons.
Since then, the Index has had many big swings, most being very good signals.
Now, in terms of both the five-day and the 10-day moving averages, the Arms
Index is at its most overbought levels ever.
We did have a few drops during the QE 1, 1.5, and 2
campaigns such as July 2009. But other than a few weeks in November 2010 when
Europe temporarily interfered with the "we can only go up or
sideways" market, this has been a non-stop party since Jackson Hole,
Wyoming, in late August.
Obviously at some point we are due to consolidate a
now soon to be four-month move ... but a lot of fingers have been severed
trying to use any historical pattern as to when this time will come. I continue
to be amazed all the "free market capitalists" on certain TeeVee
channels are applauding the Fed's intention to inflate assets... I guess
intervention is super cool as long as it pushes things in the "right
direction" versus a true market value.
National / World
WikiLeaks
founder not yet freed (Washington Post) [ ‘… Moore (correctly) asserts that Assange
is under attack solely because he had the courage to expose American war
crimes. Moore writes:
We
were taken to war in Iraq on a lie. Hundreds of thousands are now dead. Just
imagine if the men who planned this war crime back in 2002 had had a WikiLeaks
to deal with. They might not have been able to pull it off. The only reason
they thought they could get away with it was because they had a guaranteed
cloak of secrecy....
So
why is WikiLeaks, after performing such an important public service, under such
vicious attack? Because they have outed and embarrassed those who have covered
up the truth…’
CLINTON BODY COUNT
By: Ether Zone
Staff
Senate
prepares for tax package vote (Washington Post) [ What’s outlandish is that
the polls strewn and bandied about in support of this bill do not include an
exclusion of the top 1%. I am no fan of taxes, especially the way they waste
money for various nefarious interests, parties, agendas, illegal wars, etc.;
but the nation is defacto bankrupt.
Previous: Tax-cut
package clears test in Senate (Washington Post) [
Drudgereport: DEFICIT
HITS RECORD... MOODY'S May Cut US Rating on Tax Package... Senate
reaches enough votes to move forward... Previous: Where
does $250,000 a year go? (Washington Post)
[ The point so aptly made by Davis hereafter and infra, is that
‘somethin’s gotta’ give, and the top 1% and the $1trillion in unnecessary war
spending, for example, are the logical places to start. After all, the nation’s
defacto bankrupt! Davis
‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are
simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of
global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form
of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh)
is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut
$100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while
continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1%
each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool
all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT
THERE! ‘ ] In the heated battle over extending the
expiring Bush-era tax cuts, a single number has emerged from the crossfire:
$250,000. But just how flush is a family of four with a $250,000 income?
Analysis examines what it's like to be a 'rich' family in America. ] ] The measure is expected to sail through
the Senate with even stronger support than it received in a test vote this
week, when 83 senators voted to advance the package in the strongest bipartisan
vote on a major initiative since President Obama took office.
Senate
spending bill is loaded with earmarks (Washington Post) [ Well what else are spending
bills for … to spend of course … and we all know the defacto bankrupt nation
can afford it… Drudgereport: DEFICIT
HITS RECORD...
MOODY'S
May Cut US Rating on Tax Package...
New
spending bill totals $1.1 TRILLION!
$575
million PER PAGE...
6,488
earmarks...
McConnell
fumes: 'No one has seen it'...
Howard Davidowitz on the Economy:
"Here Are the Numbers ... WE'RE BROKE!" 11-25-10
‘The U.S. economy "is
a complete disaster," Howard Davidowitz declared here in July,
the most recent in a string of dire predictions from
Tech Ticker's most entertaining guest. On the eve of Thanksgiving, I asked
Davidowitz if he had any regrets, or was ready to throw in the towel given recent signs of
economic revival. Are you kidding me? "Here are the numbers...we're
broke," Davidowitz declares, noting the U.S. government goes $5 billion
deeper into debt every day and is facing $1 trillion-plus annual deficits for
the next decade. "In other words, we're bankrupt."As with the
economy, Davidowitz is unwaveringly consistent
in his views on President Obama, calling him "deranged, dysfunctional and
discredited."Results of the midterm election show "the people of this
country think we are in a catastrophe," he says. "I'm with
them."Check the accompanying video for more of Howard's unfettered
opinions and stay tuned for additional clips from
this interview. And...Happy Thanksgiving! Aaron Task is the host of Tech
Ticker. You can follow him on Twitter at @atask or email him at
[email protected]’
] Weeks after swearing off earmarks, many senators stand to gain tens of
millions of dollars for pet projects in a massive $1.2 trillion measure. House
Democrats consider estate tax amendments
Credit
Suisse: The 5 Biggest Risks of 2011 Roche ‘In a
recent strategy note, Andrew Garthwaite of Credit Suisse covered what he
believes are the biggest risks heading into 2011. On the whole, Garthwaite
believes all 5 risks are manageable, which contributes to their expectations
for 13% gains in the S&P next year.The 5 risks and the CS opinion of each
is attached:
·
Chinese
inflation (as
above), which we think is manageable until we see a sharp rise in export
prices;
·
Peripheral
Europe.
Critically, we think even under a severe private sector de-leveraging scenario,
Spanish government debt to GDP would only rise to 100% by 2014E which would make
its funding arithmetic sustainable, provided fiscal policy is tightened by
another 2% of GDP (which should be politically possible). We think core Europe
will continue to support peripheral Europe (the cost of it not doing so would
be at least $500bn on our estimates); the European Financial Stability Facility
(EFSF)
is likely to be extended and the ECB is unlikely to withdraw from the policy of
providing unlimited liquidity to the banks. Peripheral Europe needs Germany’s
economy to grow well above trend (after all it is 50% larger than the
periphery) – and that, we think, will continue to happen.
·
The
inventory rebuild has been extreme: normally, a reversal of an inventory rebuild of this
magnitude is associated with a slowdown in growth. Yet, the level of
inventories (to sales) is not extreme and there should also be a positive
surprise to domestic demand, which again limits de-stocking;
·
Fiscal
overkill. Yet,
we estimate fiscal tightening now accounts for just 1% of GDP globally in 2011
and is being watered down; especially now that the Bush tax cuts have been
renewed.
·
Contraction
in lending.
Yet, US bank leverage is already close to a 30-year low and US and European
bank lending conditions are consistent with a pick-up in loan growth.
Source: CS’
First Move's the Wrong Move: Dave's Daily ‘FIRST MOVE'S THE WRONG MOVE Fed days often feature the
initial market move after an FOMC announcement that turns out to be the wrong
move as markets reverse. So it was today as the initial jump after the
announcement was met by selling. What did the Fed do or say that was different?
Not much really. But, those in the business of dissecting the announcement
seized, for what it's worth, on a subtle change in housing sector language. The
previous announcement stated concern over "housing starts" and now
the statement was "housing sector". Somebody gets paid big bucks to
ferret this stuff out. Be that as it may, stocks were higher early on Retail
Sales data which was, ahem, better than expected. One thing interesting in the
report was that discounting was very high and one would think this would affect
profit margins. Ignored overall was the poor earnings report from Best Buy
which must mean everyone has their big screen TV now. Good news came from Amgen
which announced good results on a prostrate drug. Everyone is focused on
forecasts for 2011 and we don't want to be left out. We value the judgments
from the Business Monitor International (London) in our recent interview here.
Volume was once again quite light while breadth was mixed to negative per the
WSJ…’
YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]: ‘The FOMC statement made for a volatile afternoon as stocks sold off, treasuries sold off, and the dollar rallied. The Dow had been trading up as much as 85 points following the FOMC statement, but sold off as traders digested the news, and closed with a gain of 48 points. Today's gains in the Dow allowed the index to close at its best level since September 2008. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each finished with gains of 0.1%…’
National
/ World
Newt Gringo Wants
Your Brown Babies Keith Johnson | This is all part of an
ongoing campaign—financed by powerful money interests—to co-opt every
grassroots political movement in America.
World Trade Organization upholds U.S. tax on Chinese tires (Washington Post) [ Well there’s a tax that’ll stick. There is a feeling out there, certainly on wall street, that the damage they have done (still out there in the trillions now marked to anything as per legislated FASB rule change) and as well, the steps taken to bail them out, was of great benefit to all, kind of like that ‘ we’re doing the people’s work’ in washington. We all know that that was then and still is absolute, total b*** s***. The bailout was good for them only, and they amazingly (not really so amazing) had the political clout in Washington to get that mindset shoved down everyone’s throats. Actually, if prosecuted with disgorgement / fines, the damage would at least be somewhat diminished but still not absent since the choices made with ever more scarce resources, financial and otherwise, do have long-term implications and (detrimental) effects and the favoring of the high-frequency churn-and-earn among other fraud continuance has only enabled and encourages these should be felons / inmates to greater frauds to the substantial detriment to the greater good of the nation. The following sounds like a real plan although prosecution, jail, fines, and disgorgement are the far better route; but there’s no excuse for not doing one or the other. Poll: Majority want Wall Street to help bailout government A levy on financial services firms is the top choice among more than a dozen deficit-cutting options in poll. Dec. 13 (Bloomberg) -- More than 70 percent of Americans say big bonuses should be banned this year at Wall Street firms that took taxpayer bailouts, a Bloomberg National Poll shows. An additional one in six favors slapping a 50 percent tax on bonuses exceeding $400,000. Just 7 percent of U.S. adults say bonuses are an appropriate incentive reflecting Wall Street’s return to financial health. A large majority also want to tax Wall Street profits to reduce the federal budget deficit. A levy on financial services firms is the top choice among more than a dozen deficit-cutting options presented to respondents ...’] A panel at the Geneva-based trade group agreed that the U.S. was justified in slapping a 35 percent tax on Chinese tires under WTO provisions.
Tax-cut
package clears test in Senate (Washington Post) [ Drudgereport: DEFICIT HITS RECORD... MOODY'S May Cut US Rating on Tax Package...
Senate reaches enough votes
to move forward...
Previous: Where
does $250,000 a year go? (Washington Post)
[ The point so aptly made by Davis hereafter and infra, is that
‘somethin’s gotta’ give, and the top 1% and the $1trillion in unnecessary war
spending, for example, are the logical places to start. After all, the nation’s
defacto bankrupt! Davis
‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are
simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of
global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form
of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh)
is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut
$100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while
continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1%
each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool
all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT
THERE! ‘ ] In the heated battle over extending the
expiring Bush-era tax cuts, a single number has emerged from the crossfire:
$250,000. But just how flush is a family of four with a $250,000 income?
Analysis examines what it's like to be a 'rich' family in America. ]
John
Hussman: Warning, An Updated Who's Who of Awful Times to Invest Excerpt
from the Hussman Funds' Weekly Market
Comment (12/13/10):
In recent weeks, the U.S. stock market has been characterized by an overvalued,
overbought, overbullish, rising-yields syndrome that has historically been
hostile to stocks. Last week, the situation became much more pointed. Past
instances have been associated with such uniformly negative outcomes that the
current situation has to be accompanied by the word "warning."
The following set of conditions is one way to capture the basic
"overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yields" syndrome:
1) S&P 500 more than 8% above its 52 week (exponential) average
2) S&P 500 more than 50% above its 4-year low
3) Shiller P/E greater than 18
4) 10-year Treasury yield higher than 6 months earlier
5) Advisory bullishness > 47%, with bearishness < 27% (Investor's Intelligence)
[These are observationally equivalent to criteria I noted in the July
16, 2007 comment, A Who's
Who of Awful Times to Invest. The Shiller P/E is used in place of the
price/peak earnings ratio (as the latter can be corrupted when prior peak
earnings reflect unusually elevated profit margins). Also, it's sufficient for
the market to have advanced substantially from its 4-year low, regardless of
whether that advance represents a 4-year high. I've added elevated bullish
sentiment with a 20 point spread to capture the "overbullish" part of
the syndrome, which doesn't change the set of warnings, but narrows the number
of weeks at each peak to the most extreme observations].
The historical instances corresponding to these conditions are as
follows:
December 1972 - January 1973 (followed by a 48% collapse over the next 21 months)
August - September 1987
(followed by a 34% plunge over the following 3 months)
July 1998 (followed abruptly by an 18% loss over the following
3 months)
July 1999 (followed
by a 12% market loss over the next 3 months)
January 2000
(followed by a spike 10% loss over the next 6 weeks)
March 2000 (followed by a spike loss of 12% over 3 weeks, and
a 49% loss into 2002)
July 2007 (followed
by a 57% market plunge over the following 21 months)
January 2010
(followed by a 7% "air pocket" loss over the next 4 weeks)
April 2010 (followed
by a 17% market loss over the following 3 months)
December 2010...
We certainly are aware of trend-following models that are positive here,
but these things are testable, and when we do so, we find that they have
performed less well over the long-term, and with much larger drawdowns, than
our Market Climate approach (if that wasn't the case, we would be using them
instead). As I noted in recent weeks, we've introduced robust modifications
that broaden the number of Climates we define, and will allow us to take
moderate, transitory exposure to market fluctuations much more frequently. So
despite our present defensiveness, we expect to have more sensitivity to short
and intermediate-term fluctuations as we move forward. Clearing the overbought
and overbullish components of the present environment, without a significant
breakdown in overall market internals, would be the quickest way to prompt a
more constructive stance, even in what we view as an overvalued market. All of
that said, we are hard defensive here.’
[$$]
Seoul Warns Barclays, JPMorgan SEOUL—South Korean units of
Barclays PLC and J.P. Morgan Chase Co. violated local banking regulations by
selling inappropriate currency derivatives, an official at the Financial
Supervisory Service said ...’
Unintended
Consequences of Monetary Policy Mauldin ‘Correct me if I'm wrong, but I seem to remember that one of the
reasons for QE2 was to lower rates on the longer end of the US yield curve.
Clearly, that has not happened? Today we look at come of the unintended
consequences of monetary policy, turn our eyes briefly to consumer debt, and
wonder about deflating incomes. There are a lot of very interesting things to
cover. (This letter will print long because there are a lot of graphs. There is
the usual amount of copy.)
Ten-Year Yields Are Rising
Look at the chart below. The yield on ten-year US bonds has been rising since
the beginning of QE2. But it is not just US bonds; European and UK bonds are
moving up as well. This has also meant that mortgage rates in the US are up
almost a half percent in the last few months. That certainly has not helped
housing prices or sales, as it makes housing less affordable. (Chart from my
friends at Variant Perception.) [chart]
But it is not just the US and UK. Look at what is happening to German bonds,
supposedly the safest in Europe. They are up about as much as their
counterparts. (Chart from Cowen International and data from Bloomberg.) [chart]
And then we look at Japan and we see the same phenomenon. Japanese real rates
going up? Really? What is up with that? [chart]
In Europe it is now cheaper to hedge against corporate default than sovereign
default. That is not the way it is supposed to be. [chart]
My friend and fishing buddy David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors is in London at
a conference where they are discussing this very issue. He sent a note that
says:
In meetings today we speculated that the sell-off is
not a US-only phenomenon. We speculated that it is more than a reaction to
Bernanke's QE2. If all benchmark 10-year debt is selling off by about the same
amount in price change, could it be that this selling is the reallocation of
globally indexed funds away from sovereign debt and into something else? Think
of yourself as a Persian Gulf fund. You usually hold foreign sovereign debt in
proportion to an index or benchmark. Now you want to reduce your exposure to
some of the countries in the index. You either have to sell proportionately
from all of the countries in the index or you will face a concentration that
violates your index or benchmark. Worldwide sell-off in benchmark sovereign
debt suggests this reallocation is underway. Otherwise, how can you account for
the Japanese government bond, the German Bund, and the US Treasury note all
moving in a correlated way?
I think that is part of it. I also think that
investors and non-core central banks (those in the emerging world especially)
are asking themselves about the wisdom of holding sovereign debt in currencies
that are either in trouble (the euro) or have central banks that are printing
money (the US, UK, and Japan). Couple that with the US having just done a tax
compromise that is one huge stimulus bill, on top of extending the tax cuts,
and it is enough to make investors consider the wisdom of holding longer-term
debt at low rates.
Earlier this year I did one of my Conversations with
John Mauldin with professors Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff, who wrote the book
This Time is Different. Here is a quote from Ken:
I would say that virtually every country in the world
is grappling right now with how fast we get out of our fiscal stimulus and how
much do we worry about this longer term problem of debt. And I fear that all
together too many countries will wait too long, which doesn't mean you end up
getting forced to default, it just means the choices get more painful.
Something we just find as a recurrent theme, is you're just rolling along, borrowing
money and it seems okay, and that's what a lot of people say and wham, you hit
some limit. No one knows where it is, what it is, but we know you hit it.
Carmen and I do have numbers of what are really high debts and what aren't. And
the U.S. will hit that [limit] and there are people who say it is not a problem
and everyone loves us, greatest country in the world, where else will the
Chinese invest? And you want to hear a great, "this time it's
different" theme that's a new one.John, you started out this conversation
on how we got started in this research and this was one of the things in our
2003 paper that is now built into the early chapter or two of the book that
just got us really excited was this realization of how not only theoretically,
but quantitatively you see it, that countries have the threshold that they hit
that we've found ways to try and crudely measure, where the interest rates
you're charged just explode.It was an epiphany for us because it helped us
understand in a really clear way, why it was that the IMF program that we were
involved with, and watching and commenting on, so many of them seemed to run
awry. We would be presented with this calculation with, "Oh well their
debt is 50 percent, and we're going to let them go slow and run it up to 55
percent before we start getting it down." But you know if they are running
into trouble at 50 percent, and you let it go up to 55 percent, the interest
rate could just explode on you as the markets just don't have confidence. And
then in our more recent works that we just finished this paper, Growth in a
Time of Debt, we found that there was a parallel effect for advanced
countries where they hit these growth limits at 90 and 100 percent.
In their book (a must read!) they write:
Highly indebted governments, banks, or corporations
can seem to be merrily rolling along for an extended period, when bang! -
confidence collapses, lenders disappear, and a crisis hits.
Bang
is the right word. It is the nature of human beings to assume that the current
trend will work out, that things can't really be that bad. The trend is your
friend ... until it ends. Look at the bond markets just a few months before
World War I. There was no sign of an impending war. Everyone "knew"
that cooler heads would prevail.
We can look back now and see where we made mistakes
in the recent crisis. We actually believed that this time was different, that
we had better financial instruments, smarter regulators, and were so, well,
modern. Times were different. We knew how to deal with leverage. Borrowing
against your home was a good thing. Housing values would always go up. Etc.
Now there are bullish voices telling us that things
are headed back to normal. Mainstream forecasts for GDP growth next year (2011)
are quite robust, north of 3.5-4% for the year, based on evidence from past
recoveries.
However, the underlying fundamentals of a banking
crisis are far different from those of a typical business-cycle recession, as
Reinhart and Rogoff's work so clearly reveals. It typically takes years to work
off excess leverage in a banking crisis, with unemployment often rising for 4
years running.
The Fed Flow of Funds data came out this week, and it
is a treasure trove for those of us with no social life. Look at the following
chart. This is basically credit card debt, and it is continuing to fall.
[chart]
The New York Times reports (hat tip: Mike Shedlock):
"he lowest percentage of shoppers in the
27-year-history of a national survey said they used credit cards over the
Thanksgiving weekend, while the use of general credit cards like Visa and
MasterCard fell 11 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, according
to the credit bureau TransUnion. Britt Beemer, chief executive of America's
Research Group, a survey firm, said 'The consumer really feels a lot of
pressure from previous debts, and they just aren't going to dig themselves into
that kind of hole,' he said. After the Thanksgiving shopping weekend, the group
found that just about 17 percent were paying with credit ... just over half of
last year's level and the lowest rate in the 27 years it has conducted a
survey.
Credit lines have been reduced and cards have gone
away. Debit cards are the current growth area, but such a drop-off in credit
card debt is unprecedented, and the graph above and the NYT-cited survey give
no indications that it's going to change soon.
Then the next chart is total consumer credit
outstanding. Interestingly, when I looked at it this week I noted an uptick.
That seemed odd and didn't square with the credit card data. I put it into my
mental file to figure out what was happening.
[chart]
And then I read fellow data miner and good friend
David Rosenberg, who looked a little deeper into the data. Seems that they now
count student loans as consumer credit, whereas they did not in the past. I
guess I missed that memo. (Which makes using past data a bitch. I wish they
would keep the data consistent or just create another series, if they think it
is that important.) This from David:
Is The Credit Contraction Over? What do you know?
Outstanding U.S. consumer credit expanded $3.3 billion in October after eking
out a $1.3 billion increase in September. This is the first back-to-back gain
since just before Hank Paulson took out his bazooka in the summer of 2008. Does
this mean the credit contraction is over? Hell no. First, the raw not
seasonally adjusted data show a $700 million decline.Once again, it was
federally-supported credit (ie. student-backed loans) that accounted for all
the increase last month - a record $31.8 billion expansion. Commercial banks,
securitized pools and finance companies posted huge declines - to the point
where excluding federal loans, consumer credit plunged $32.5 billion, to the
lowest level since November 2004 (not to mention down a record 9% YoY). Over
the past three months consumer credit outstanding net of federal student
assisted loans has collapsed $76 billion ... this degree of contraction is
without precedent. [chart]
That makes a lot more sense. But then how is it that
consumer spending is rising as much as it has recently? Seems the savings rate
is back down to 4% and people are hitting their savings.
I want us to look at these few paragraphs from a
Bloomberg story quoted by Merrill:
'Ford Investing $600 million, Hiring 1,800 at SUV
plant.' -- According to Bloomberg, Ford is hiring 1,800 workers and spending
$600 million to overhaul a factory in Louisville, Kentucky that builds sport
utility vehicles. Once the overhaul is complete, the plant will operate with
two shifts employing 2,900 workers which is an increase from the current one
shift that only employs 1,100. However, while work on the plant is being
performed (starting December 16th) 700 workers will be laid off from the plant
but they will return in the fourth quarter of 2011. Overall, 1,000 new
employees will be added to Ford's payroll due to the plant's overhaul while the
rest are relocated from other factories. New hires will be paid $14.50 an hour.
That works out to about $29,000 a year. Take away
Social Security and other taxes and that does not leave a lot, certainly not
enough to buy one of those SUVs. But that is the wave of the future, as we now
compete in a global economy. I know I keep talking about my kids, but I can see
every time we talk how tough it is. I get it.
But what do interest rates, QE2, debt, and lower
wages have to do with each other?
QE2 and the nervousness of investors around the world
are pushing up interest rates. We in the US may not have as much time as we
think we do before Bang! and rates start moving up with a vengeance. And no
amount of QE3-4-5 will bring rates down when the bond vigilantes strike fear
into the markets.
Further, that money is not showing up in new loans to
either consumers or businesses. It is showing up in asset prices like stocks,
emerging markets, and commodities. Oil at $90 and gasoline at $3 per gallon is
a tax on consumers, especially at the lower end of the scale. Food prices climb
as grains explode, along with the metals that go into our products. And rising
interest rates are not good for mortgages. QE2 is not helping consumers or the
housing market. Those are unintended consequences. I am sure that was not the
plan. It is helping banks with a steeper yield curve. And maybe that is the
plan.
Ben. Get a clue. The world is not responding to your
theories. What it is doing is getting worried about a central bank that will
debase a currency. I agree that your current QE is not all that much in the
grand scheme of things, but it is perception and NOT the actual use of those
new dollars that is driving rates up.
Further, I am sure you are paying attention to the
problems over in Europe. There is the real potential for another credit crisis,
where we may in fact need some liquidity injections. You are wasting your
bullets on the wrong targets. It is NOT working.
Further, what if the Irish go to the polls in a few
months and vote in a new government that repudiates the current agreement (for
Irish taxpayers to back Irish bank debt that is owed to German and French
banks), and then when the ECB and the Germans tell them no one will buy any new
debt they simply say, "Fine, we won't pay you on anything." Think
that wouldn't throw a wrench in the gears? Can you 100% assure me that it won't
happen?
(As an aside, I might vote for that if I were Irish.
Given where they are, how much worse can it get? Here in Texas we lost all our
banks in the oil and real estate crash of the '80s. Now we are doing just fine.
It would be tough, but the Irish are being asked to shoulder a massive amount
of bank debt, far beyond their real means to pay. Erin Go Bragh.)
I can't get any real data on how closely tied US
banks are to European banks. The ties were certainly close in the last credit
crisis. How much has that changed? If we actually need the Fed to step in once
again, the markets could get really spooked, as the next QE rounds might not be
accepted so sanguinely.
Then maybe I am just a natural-born worrier, sitting
back here in the cheap seats. The markets are going up. The call-to-put ratio
is high and rising. Bull-bear sentiment is very high. The world is bullish.
What could go wrong? Bartender, another round, please.
Disclaimer
John Mauldin is president of Millennium Wave
Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor. All material presented herein
is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Investment
recommendations may change and readers are urged to check with their investment
counselors before making any investment decisions…’
2010: The Year of Bifurcated Recoveries, Part 2 ‘… In summation, we really do have two separate economies:
(1)
An industrial, export, Wall Street and general consumer goods economy, which is
in a strong, full, V-shaped recovery; and
(2)
an economy consisting of:
- Housing and other construction, which is still bouncing along the bottom or
still declining slightly
-
State and local government, lagging one year behind and still in the throes of
recession, and
-
Employment, which is growing slowly; and wages and income, which are barely
growing at all.
The
story of 2010 was indeed that of the bifurcated recovery.’
Is Santa Claus rally almost done? (Reuters) Krudy NEW YORK – ‘The December rally may be reaching its
climax, with just two weeks to go before Santa Claus makes his midnight run. Dwindling
volume, excess optimism, and history all point to a stock market that could be
running out of steam…’
Two bank closures bring year total to 151 (Reuters) Paramount
Bank Bank Fails Along with Earthstar Bank
This brings the total amount of 2010 bank
failures to 151. ... Paramount Bank closed on Friday, December 10 without any advanced notice
to customers. ... MyBankTracker.com - FoxBusiness.com
- Two Bank Failures Bring Year's Tally To 151 Published December
10, 2010. | MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO -- One bank failure in Pennsylvania and one in
... http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2010/12/10/bank-failures-bring-years-tally
Israel group blasts arrests of
Palestinian minors [ May
have been some serious stone-throwers say israelis in their own defense. ] The Associated Press -
JERUSALEM (AP) - Heavily armed Israeli police dragged the Dana brothers from
their home before dawn, tossed them in armored jeeps and hauled them in for
interrogation, the Palestinian boys and their father told The Associated Press.
Video: Credibility of
Israeli-Palestinian peace talks questioned
Al Jazeera Video: Credibility of
Israeli-Palestinian peace talks questioned Al Jazeera Report: Police dealings with Palestinian minors illegal Ha'aretz
In
backing tax-cut deal, Clinton regains spotlight (Washington Post) [ Right own failed presidency?
Righto … riiiiight! No can do … least of all with a guy who propitiously
stumbled into ‘the short-lived era’ of the global peace dividend, only to
snatch failure from the jaws of victory … Of course, one may say, well, they’re
better than their bush league predecessors … point well taken … but in
retrospect they’ve proven to be distinctions in name only without significant differences,
from war, to economics (nafta, new world order b*** s***, perpetual war /
conflict, etc.). Criminals all, the new pervasively corrupt, meaningfully
lawless, defacto bankrupt america . ] Ex-president's solo turn in White House
briefing room seems at least a temporary handoff of power by Obama as he
struggles to right own presidency.
[ Timid
Tuesday: Is it Safe? Davis
‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are
simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of
global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form
of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh)
is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut
$100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while
continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1%
each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool
all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT
THERE! ‘
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored A viral You Tube upload of
one of Alex Jones’ most popular feature films ‘The Obama Deception’ has been
censored following a spur of the moment campaign to elevate the movie’s title
to the top of the major internet search engines. In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
CLINTON BODY COUNT
By: Ether Zone
Staff
Here is the latest body
count that we have. All of these people have been connected with the Clintons
in some form or another. We have not included any deaths that could not be
verified or connected to the Clinton scandals. All deaths are listed
chronologically by date. This list is current and accurate to the best of our
knowledge as of January 13, 1999 August 1, 2000. (see complete list http://albertpeia.com/bodycount.htm )
Susan Coleman: Rumors were circulating in Arkansas of an affair
with Bill Clinton. She was found dead with a gunshot wound to the head at 7 1/2
months pregnant. Death was an apparent suicide.
Kevin Ives & Don Henry: Initial cause of death was reported to be the result
of falling asleep on a railroad track in Arkansas on August 23, 1987. This
ruling was reported by the State medical examiner Fahmy Malak. Later it was
determined that Kevin died from a crushed skull prior to being placed on the
tracks. Don had been stabbed in the back. Rumors indicate that they might have
stumbled upon a Mena drug operation.
Paul Olson: A Federal witness in investigations to drug money
corruption in Chicago politics, Paul had just finished 2 days of FBI interviews
when his plane ride home crashed, killing Paul and 130 others on Sept 8 1994.
The Sept. 15, 1994 Tempe Tribune newspaper reported that the FBI suspected that
a bomb had brought down the airplane.
Calvin Walraven: 24 year on Walraven was a key witness against Jocelyn
Elder's son's drug case. Walraven was found dead in his apartment with a
gunshot wound to the head. Tim Hover, a Little Rock police spokesman says no
foul play is suspected.
Alan G. Whicher: Oversaw Clinton's Secret Service detail. In October 1994
Whicher was transferred to the Secret Service field office in the Murrah
Building in Oklahoma City. Whatever warning was given to the BATF agents in
that building did not reach Alan Whicher, who died in the bomb blast of April
19th 1995.
Ron Brown:. The Commerce Secretary died on April 3, 1996, in an
Air Force jet carrying Brown and 34 others, including 14 business executives on
a trade mission to Croatia, crashed into a mountainside. The Air Force, in a
22-volume report issued in June of 1996, confirmed its initial judgment that
the crash resulted from pilot errors and faulty navigation equipment At the
time of Brown's death, Independent Counsel Daniel Pearson was seeking to
determine whether Brown had engaged in several sham financial transactions with
longtime business partner Nolanda Hill shortly before he became secretary of
commerce.
Charles Meissner: died: UNK - Following Ron Brown's death, John Huang was
placed on a Commerce Department contract that allowed him to retain his
security clearance by Charles Meissner. Shortly thereafter, Meissner died in
the crash of a small plane. He was an Assistant Secretary of Commerce
for International Economic Policy.
Barbara Wise: Wise a 14-year Commerce Department employee found dead and
partially naked in her office following a long weekend. She worked in the same
section as John Huang. Officially, she is said to have died of natural causes.
Mary C. Mahoney: 25, murdered at the Georgetown Starbuck's coffee bar over
the 4th of July '97 weekend. She was a former White House intern who worked
with John Huang. Apparently she knew Monica Lewinsky and her sexual encounters
with Bill Clinton. Although not verified, it has been said that Lewinsky told
Linda Tripp that she did not want to end up like Mahoney.
---------------------------------------------------------
Hillary Clinton signals failure of direct
talks on Mideast peace (Washington Post) [ Wow! I guess we were
all blind-sided by that one …riiiiight! … I mean, who woulda thunk it … failed
mideast peace talks … Rather than face american humiliation time after time
along with contra american interest mideast status quo, america should ‘read
the riot act’ to illegal nuke totin’, provocateur and war criminal nation
israel and impose a fair peace … which america has the capacity to do, along
with an overwhelming global consensus in which to do it! ]
New
Economic Slide to a Lower Level? The Inflation Trader ‘Initial Claims did
not administer the coup de grace to the bond market. While TIPS
continued to struggle, bonds were roughly unchanged on the day as Claims came
out quite near to expectations (421k). It does appear that ‘Claims have begun a
new slide to a lower level, but I would caution here against relying too much
on one’s eyes. The spike in late summer makes the slide appear larger than it
really is, and moreover at this time of year (and, frankly, through most of
January) the volatility of the Claims numbers is much higher. Ergo, we need
more data to be sure that we’re really seeing what we’re seeing. I would say
that I “suspect” it is so, but I don’t have enough evidence yet to reject the
null. Absent such a mercy-strike, the market was reasonably quiet yesterday.
However, one of my favorite data releases – come to think of it, the fact that
I have a favorite data release is pretty sad – was out yesterday: the Federal
Reserve’s quarterly Z1 Flow of Funds report, updated through Q3. I like this
report because it allows me to update charts like these (click to enlarge):
[chart] This chart
(click to enlarge) shows that Federal, State, and Local debt
(including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt) as a proportion of total debt. This
matters because the higher this ratio goes, the bigger the incentive for the
government to simply monetize the debt. It isn’t outlandishly high yet, but the
trend is kinda bad. [chart] This chart
(click to enlarge) makes a neat point. The private sector is
deleveraging, slightly. But the overall economy is not, because the government
has thoughtfully taken up the slack and borrowed whatever we weren’t borrowing.
This is not unrelated to the fact that the economy didn’t collapse after
2008Q3. Some of you may applaud the Administration(s) for this since it
helped avert an imminent collapse. Some of you may throw brickbats at the
Administration(s), since if leverage was what was causing the collapse to
threaten, we clearly have the same Sword of Damocles hanging over our heads. I
tend towards the latter camp, but either way I think we can agree it’s a
smashing chart. [chart] So where
has the private deleveraging come from? Well, there is a myth that the consumer
is deleveraging. A little bit, yes, but most of the deleveraging is
coming from domestic financial institutions (banks, dealers, etc). And yes, you
might combine these last two charts and say “so, the financial system basically
foisted a bunch of debt onto the federal ledger, aka taxpayers?” Yep, that was
the deal the Administration(s) made with the devil. Again, some of you will
applaud this for the short-term results and others will hurl rotten tomatoes.
But probably none of you will pat Bank of America (BAC)
on the back these days. (I’m just sayin’.) [chart] Tobin's Q /
Average Q And, yes, the Z.1 allows us to calculate a variation of Tobin’s Q. If
you don’t know what Tobin’s Q is, you can
read my comparatively-succinct explanation here, but in a nutshell it is a
way of comparing the market value of equities to the replacement value of their
assets. Higher means a frothier market. Here I’ve divided the calculated Q by
the average Q since 1952 to get a normalized Q. If this makes you think the
stock market may still be overvalued, then you can thank Q. You’re welcome!’
Time
to Take a Pause? - author: The Housing Time
Bomb ‘Let me start things with a chart (click to enlarge) of the
S&P of the past 12 months: [chart]
My Take:
I think this chart is very interesting. As you can see above, we saw a huge
rally this fall as the market roared back to it's post crash highs. What's
interesting to me is it looks like the market is having a hard time breaking
through to the upside since getting back up here.
Could we be hitting an inflection point where the trend reverses? It's to soon
to tell, but what I can say is if the longer the market continues to stall up
here the higher the risk is to the downside.
I think the market is realizing there are many questions that need to be
answered before marching higher:
Take Continued:
Can you blame the market from taking a pause here? The market seems to be
running on fumes at this point given the risks I described above.
I loved the two tech tickers below that discuss some of the same worries:
Take Continued
I couldn't agree more with the guests above. QE2 is "criminal" and
the fact that Bernanke feels he needs to go on 60 Minutes and sell it makes me
extremely uneasy.
Bernanke's point about being 100% in control of this situation is borderline
delusional.
How could anyone be 100% certain of anything given the risks above? Some of the
most brilliant hedge fund managers quit the game because the market became so
uncertain. How can this guy get on air and actually say something like this?
I mean just look at their history as the commentator above brilliantly points:
The Fed has always been late in reacting to key "inflection" points
over the past 15 years. Their biggest mistake was holding rates down for too
long which then created the housing bubble. This will likely go down in the
history books as the worst policy decision in history.
In fact, after looking at their history, I am 100% sure that they will be too
late to react when this all blows up in their face. God help us all when this
happens.
The Bottom Line
The one thing you can count on right now is uncertainty. The Democrats have now
decided to not go through with Obama's idiotic tax cut deal(thank god).
Let's hope the Democrats have enough balls to hold out long enough for a better
deal. I must admit I am skeptical because in their eyes they can't afford to
not do anything. The Republicans have time on their side because the clock is
ticking and something must get done now.
If this thing gets strung out without compromise then my guess is the Democrats
will end up eating the whole **it sandwich at the 11th hour before the critters
go home for the holiday. We will see what the bond market has to say if this is
how it plays out.
In the meantime, cash is king until we get more clarity around the economy. As
"the credit trader" told me last week: "Now is a time to sit on
capital because bigger opportunities lie ahead".
Remember, we are in the middle of a housing crash and we still have a long ways
to go especially if rates keep rising. This is the 100lb gorilla in the room
that everyone keeps trying to ignore.
Every now and then he rears his ugly head, beats his chest, and reminds us how
bad it really is:’
What
if I Were a Buy and Hold Investor?
Roche [ The scenario is actually
worse than the bad, secular bear market one that Roche accurately posits owing
to the fact that there has been a substantial structural shift away from and
substantially deleterious to pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america in
economic, financial, and geo-political terms. ] ‘I don’t discuss long-term
investment strategies for various reasons, but I understand that the majority
of investors don’t have the time to implement an approach
that is similar to mine. I have, on occasion, made broader long-term
prognostications. For example, in early 2009 it was very popular to proclaim
that “buy and hold” was dead (which I said was
nonsense at the time) or that the bear market was never going to end. The smart money was doing the
opposite of what the permabears were saying as “once in a lifetime
opportunities” were apparent in many markets. It would be convenient
revisionist history for me to say that I was “all in” on long-term bullish bets
back in 2009 (that hasn’t been my M.O. over the last 5 years), but there are a
few long-term indicators that I have routinely tracked in recent years that
have proven to be superb long-term trend indicators. Among them are my Expectation
Ratio, Stock
market to GNP ratio, the AAII’s allocation
portfolio and jobless claims trends. In late January 2009 I highlighted one
very bullish long-term development in the markets:
The indicator (my ER) has only just recently become
positive again which is telling me that analysts are finally beginning to cut
their estimates to realistic levels. The indicator was a little early to the
party in 2007 and I presume it will be early again in forecasting a recovery,
however, it is a good sign that now is a time when you might want to be dipping
your toe in the waters. If you’re young and have a long time horizon you
certainly want to be adding to positions.
A few weeks later I discussed the long-term impact
of jobless claims:
The inverse of this is what we’re seeing now. People
are being laid off at a record rate and that’s a potentially bullish sign. It
means that the economy is entering a period of under-capacity. Although it goes
against every intuition you might have I think this is one more sign (in addition to my ER)
that we are closer to the bottom than the top. If you have a long time horizon
I think it’s best to ignore those people who are saying that buy and hold is
dead. In fact, as I’ve repeated recently, buy and hold is likely more viable
now than ever.
At the same time the stock market to GNP ratio was
also giving a very bullish signal and the AAII’s small investor allocation for
equities had declined to levels consistent with previous market bottoms. For
those with a stomach for risk the stars were in many ways aligned. It’s safe to
say that my own performance over the last two years would have been superior if
I had been eating more of this long-term cooking, however, a longer perspective
(my 60%+ outperformance in 2008 for instance) shows that my short-term tactical
approach to the markets has saved me a great deal of anxiety and successfully
resulted in high risk adjusted returns. Regardless of my current approach, it’s
useful to update these long-term models on occasion if not for my own benefit
then for the benefit of the reader. Maintaining a grasp on the overall macro
picture can also be useful in trying to grasp where we are in the investment
cycle.
Since I’ve updated the first three indicators just
recently I figure it’s about time we update the fourth. The chart below (click
to enlarge) shows the most recent jobless claims data. Any economist will
tell you that jobs are likely the single most important component to economic
and profit growth. The weekly jobless claims data remains the closest real-time
proof of labor market trends. Therefore, equities tend to be relatively closely
correlated with claims data.
I have (somewhat arbitrarily) used this indicator in
recent years to gauge labor utilization. When claims are low it means the
economy is humming and that things are unlikely to improve substantially. This
tends to coincide with equity environments that are richly valued or
overvalued. The opposite occurs when claims are high. This tends to coincide
with an environment in which labor is being underutilized and equities are
inexpensive. Over the last two years we’ve moved from a period that is
consistent with aggressive equity accumulation (very high claims data) to a
period of more moderate growth, but growth nonetheless. We’re still well off
the historical range in which equities are a clear sell.[chart]
If we look at all four indicators the outlook remains
a bit mixed. My ER is very bullish. The market:GNP ratio is moderately
overvalued. The AAII allocation survey is not consistent with market tops. And
finally, the jobless claims data is consistent with an environment in which you
want to own stocks, but not aggressively accumulate stocks. This all adds up to
a longer-term outlook of moderate, but not aggressive bullishness.
So, the question then is – if you held a gun to my
head would I be a long-term buyer or seller of stocks currently? I would likely
be a buyer, however, because I
still believe we are in a balance sheet recession and have resolved none of
our long-term imbalances I am not eating that cooking. Instead, I continue to
use a short-term model based on the idea that the secular bear is alive and
well and volatility must be navigated as opposed to ignored. Risk
management is not going out of style. While a long-term outlook is likely
to reward equity investors in the coming years I believe higher risk adjusted
returns can be obtained through a multi-strategy short-term approach that
focuses on hedging strategies and risk management. Hopefully, however, this
helps some of you long-term investors put things into perspective.
‘Anna Ardin,
described in court documents as “Miss A,” had deleted Twitter messages speaking
highly of Wikileaks founder Julian Assange, the man she would later accuse of
rape, according to Göran Rudling, the editor Consensus Now, a website arguing
that laws based on sexual activities need to be consensual to not be considered
criminal.Assange was in Stockholm, Sweden, in August to speak at the invitation
of Sweden’s Social Democratic Party. The event was organized by Ardin, who was the
press secretary of the Brotherhood Movement, which is an adjunct of the Social
Democratic Party.The 31 year old woman is described as a feminist, leftist and animal rights activist
who previously worked at the Uppsala University where she handled equality
issues for the students’ union.Earlier this week, the Cuban news agencies Granma
and Prensa Latina stated that Ardin is a Cuban CIA collaborator who works with
Miami-based, U.S. government paid intelligence agencies. They say Ardin is
linked to the anti-Cuban terrorist Carlos Aberto Montaner.In newspapers and
blogs, the blond Swede has been called a “honey trap” — see here, here, and here — a word that describes intelligence agencies using
women to lure in male targets.Between Saturday and Sunday, August 14-15, Ardin
wrote the following about Assange on her Twitter account:
‘Julian
wants to go to a crayfish party, anyone have a couple of available seats
tonight or tomorrow? #fb’
‘Sitting
outdoors at 02:00 and hardly freezing with the world’s coolest smartest people,
it’s amazing! #fb’
“When Anna
Ardin files a police complaint against Julian Assange on 20 August these tweets
are removed,” Rudling notes. “Why? As far as I can tell, it’s not common for
victims of crime to delete blogs, clean up their cellphones, and try to get
witnesses to attest to things that aren’t true. Why is it so important to
remove these particular tweets?”Rudling wrote about his discovery on the Radsoft
website on September 30.James Catlin, also writing for Radsoft, reports that Ardin
and Swedish associate Sofia Wilén invented the rape scenario in order to entrap
Assange. “They went to the police station asking for advice, knowing the police
would turn it into an accusation of rape. They’re also the ones who leaked the
story to the tabloid Expressen,” writes Catlin.Catlin claims Ardin’s SMS
history proves she made the story up and plotted with Wilén “to leak the story
to notorious Swedish tabloid Expressen.”It was reported that Ardin moved to the Palestinian West Bank to
work with an outreach group called the Ecumenical Accompaniment Program in
Palestine and Israel, but this was later debunked. The group’s program
coordinator, Pauline Nunu, said Ardin had canceled her trip and did not know
where she was.On Thursday, December 9, Rundle reported that Ardin may have ceased actively
co-operating with the Swedish prosecution service and her own lawyer.“The move
comes amid a growing campaign by leading Western feminists to question the
investigation, and renewed confusion as to whether Sweden has actually issued
charges against Assange. Naomi Klein, Naomi Wolf, and the European group Women
Against Rape, have all made statements questioning the nature and purpose of
the prosecution,” Rundle wrote for Crikey.A growing number of observers believe
Ardin works for the CIA and was employed to set-up Assange. “After leaving
Cuba, Ardin worked with web sites financed by USAID and controlled by the CIA,”
writes the Australia-Cuba Friendship Society.
One of these sites was ‘Miscelánea de Cuba’,
run by the Cuban Alexis Gainza. Through Gainza she became linked to Swedish
agencies, including Dagens Nyheter and SVT, and entered the Swedish Social
Democrat party. Gainza is linked to the German Internationale Gesellschaft
für Menschenrechte (International Human Rights Society), a group linked to
German and U.S. intelligence and has some former Nazis (such as Ludwig Martin)
and ex military figures (Dieter von Glahn) in its ranks. The current president
of the IGFM, Martin Lessenthin, works closely with the Venezuelan opposition
party Primero Justicia, led by the anti-Chavez terrorist Alejandro Peña.
Primero Justicia, in turn is the main partner of the International republican
Institute, and extreme right wing group funded by the US Government’s National
Endowment for Democracy.
Both USAID and the National Endowment for Democracy
are linked to the CIA. In 2009, a high ranking CIA official admitted that USAID is a cover
for the agency. “A lot of what we [NED] do today was done covertly 25 years ago
by the CIA,” Allen Weinstein, one of the founders of NED, admitted.
Julian Assange, who appears to be a dupe for a concerted government effort to
shut down whistleblowers and criminalize the release of government information,
may or may not be extradited from Britain to Sweden to face what now appears to
be wholly invented rape charges. A number of politicians and officials want
Assange sent to the United States to face espionage charges. Assange’s lawyer,
however, said that she did not believe the Espionage Act applied to Assange,
who is she added currently in solitary confinement in Wandsworth prison in
London, according to The
Telegraph.’
It's OK to Panic, But Take Your Time Inflation Trader ‘Another day of selloff in the bond
market, and I wonder how much fingernail-chewing is happening at the Fed?
10-year Treasury yields rose to 3.27% for the first time since mid-June (see
Chart, click to enlarge). Forget QE2 at the beginning of November, or the
discussion about it at the end of August; in June we had just watched
volatility spike and the S&P was undecided about whether to go above 1100
or below 1050 (it eventually did both). Inflation expectations were in retreat.
[chart] This is
starting to get ugly. The sharp selloff in bonds is, at some level, not
terribly surprising because of the time of year. Illiquidity in December is
hardly a news flash, and I always take care to remind people that illiquidity
doesn’t mix well with all of the mortgage paper out there that represents
“short gamma” positions. More succinctly put, if you start a stone rolling at
this time of year, it is often more likely to gather speed than come to rest.
For all of the beating that nominal yields have taken, though, real yields
today got it worse. The 10-year real yield surpassed 1% for the first time
since September, on a 19bp selloff. 10-year TIPS yields have risen from 0.40%
to 1.04% since the Fed started QE2 (see Chart, click to enlarge). Keep
in mind that this happened on a day in which the Federal Reserve was buying
TIPS in the market. [chart] …’
Where
no man has gone before (Washington Post) [ Geeh! I can almost hear that
Star Trek Theme reverberate in my head, followed by a taste of Zarathustra …
After all, this is 2010 Odd but hardly a Space Odyssey. Indeed, merely
launching rockets is a far cry from Jupiter, and as for the moon; well, they
just didn’t get that done either … though the video was … okay. Launch
of secret US space ship masks even more secret launch of new weapon
Senate
leaders set to begin debate on tax cuts (Washington
Post) [ Riiiiight! They’re busy doing the people’s work … the question is,
which people? If you said the frauds on wall street, you’d be correct. If you
said the top 1% in income (the wealthiest), you’d be correct. If you said
themselves, you’d be correct. If you said anything else you’d undoubtedly be
incorrect. See infra, ie., The Economic
Recovery Rolls on as America Turns to Food Stamps What recovery? On fraudulent wall street? The
new fraud goes on!, etc.. ] Democrats are still angry, but lawmakers say the magnitude of the
concessions President Obama won in the talks came into sharper focus. GOP
lawmakers hiring lobbyists, despite rhetoric Interactive: What the extension means for you. Reid
seeks votes that are sure to fail
The Economic
Recovery Rolls on as America Turns to Food Stamps [ What recovery? On fraudulent wall street?
The new fraud goes on! ] Tradermark ‘I could talk about the food stamp issue once a month, but as the
"recovery" gains steam, I prefer to only speak about it when we hit
important milestones. Believe it or not, when I began FMMF in 2007,
"only" 1 in 11 of our citizens was on foodstamps. [May 7, 2008: 1 in 11 Americans on
Food Stamps] We passed many milestones during the Great
Recession...1 in 10, 1 in 9 [Jun 8, 2009: 1 in 9 Americans on
Food Stamps] ... and finally in the throes of recovery we hit 1 in 8
... with 1 in 4 American children in the program.[Nov 29, 2009: 1 in 4 Children,
and 1 in 8 Americans Now on Food Stamps] I know it is hard to
believe in a country where we measure our progress based on how the stock
market does, how many Coach bags the average upper middle class woman owns, or
what aggregate GDP figures say, but things are pretty awful for a large part of
society. After crossing the 1 in 8 threshold last Thanksgiving, just over a
year later we are sniffing at 1 in 7 (which would be approximately 14.25% of
all citizen per the WSJ.The
bifurcation of American society continues at pace. [Nov 10, 2009: Walmart Executive
"There are Families Not Eating at the End of the Month"]
Definitely a fascinating society we are creating.... the social implications in
the long run are compelling. We joke about Americans not being engaged and why
we do not have protests in the street about what is happening in this country,
like those crazy Europeans. Aside from being busy with the circus (Dancing with
the Stars, NFL, et al) ... we are also offered bread. If you want to see those
sort of public movements, take away programs like food stamp. When the
desperation kicks in, you would see some serious game changing fireworks [Dec 8, 2007: Do the Bottom 80% of
Americans Stand a Chance?] [Sep 7, 2009: Citigroup - America;
A Modern Day Plutonomy]
Anyhow,
per the 'wealth effect' plan, we're all gonna get rich via the stock market
bubble Ben is inflating, so no problemo. [Nov 10, 2010: Who Will Any Form
of Intermediate Term Wealth Effect Really Help? Not the Masses] The
irony of my piece on November 10th is borne out by the fact that the 6 of the
10 counties ringing Washington D.C. are the country's richest, as our federal
government spends as if there is no tomorrow. But Washington D.C. itself has
more than 1 in 5 citizens on food stamps.
FOOD STAMP USE, BY STATE [Click on the top of any column to resort the chart.]
U.S.
total |
42,911,042
|
16.2% |
1.2% |
14% |
Alabama |
849,785 |
12.8% |
1.2% |
18% |
Alaska |
81,196 |
15.4% |
-0.1% |
11.6% |
Arizona |
1,044,410 |
10.9% |
-0.3% |
15.8% |
Arkansas |
483,309 |
8.4% |
0.7% |
16.7% |
California |
3,466,974 |
17.7% |
1.2% |
9.4% |
Colorado |
424,878 |
16.8% |
0.1% |
8.5% |
Connecticut |
364,341 |
22.8% |
1.4% |
10.4% |
Delaware |
124,755 |
21.9% |
2.6% |
14.1% |
District
of Columbia |
128,759 |
16.4% |
1.7% |
21.5% |
Florida |
2,881,019 |
25.8% |
2.5% |
15.5% |
Georgia |
1,693,976 |
16.4% |
0.7% |
17.2% |
Hawaii |
147,250 |
15.7% |
1.2% |
11.4% |
Idaho |
214,378 |
39.1% |
1.2% |
13.9% |
Illinois |
1,839,051 |
18.6% |
8.5% |
14.2% |
Indiana |
857,992 |
13.3% |
0.6% |
13.4% |
Iowa |
352,164 |
10.9% |
0% |
11.7% |
Kansas |
291,126 |
18% |
0.6% |
10.3% |
Kentucky |
804,538 |
8.7% |
-0.1% |
18.6% |
Louisiana |
864,112 |
10.3% |
0.9% |
19.2% |
Maine |
237,530 |
9.6% |
0.1% |
18% |
Maryland |
616,102 |
20.4% |
1.5% |
10.8% |
Massachusetts |
785,435 |
12.2% |
1% |
11.9% |
Michigan |
1,884,751 |
15.2% |
0.4% |
18.9% |
Minnesota |
455,852 |
17.2% |
0.7% |
8.7% |
Mississippi |
601,432 |
8.7% |
1.1% |
20.4% |
Missouri |
928,183 |
7.9% |
0.1% |
15.5% |
Montana |
119,039 |
15.8% |
0.1% |
12.2% |
Nebraska |
169,385 |
14.5%td> |
0% |
9.4% |
Nevada |
314,253 |
28.7% |
1.5% |
11.9% |
New
Hampshire |
110,576 |
20.4% |
0.6% |
8.3% |
New
Jersey |
690,075 |
27.2% |
1.9% |
7.9% |
New
Mexico |
390,154 |
20.1% |
0.6% |
19.4% |
New York |
2,895,995 |
13.3% |
0.8% |
14.8% |
North
Carolina |
1,476,207 |
18.2% |
2.3% |
15.7% |
North
Dakota |
61,229 |
7.1% |
0.3% |
9.5% |
Ohio |
1,683,877 |
11.9% |
0.8% |
14.6% |
Oklahoma |
613,531 |
14% |
0.9% |
16.6% |
Oregon |
738,702 |
13.2% |
0.7% |
19.3% |
Pennsylvania |
1,644,259 |
13.2% |
0.3% |
13% |
Rhode
Island |
150,450 |
26% |
1.3% |
14.3% |
South
Carolina |
832,651 |
11.3% |
0.3% |
18.3% |
South
Dakota |
99,504 |
14.9% |
0% |
12.2% |
Tennessee |
1,267,478 |
8% |
0.5% |
20.1% |
Texas |
3,837,839 |
24.6% |
0.9% |
15.5% |
Utah |
269,819 |
25.9% |
3.8% |
9.7% |
Vermont |
87,838 |
7.7% |
1% |
14.1% |
Virginia |
826,277 |
13.8% |
0.7% |
10.5% |
Washington |
1,006,518 |
16.4% |
0.8% |
15.1% |
West
Virginia |
343,764 |
5.1% |
-0.6% |
18.9% |
Wisconsin |
762,287 |
21.3% |
0.6% |
13.5% |
Wyoming |
35,615 |
17.2% |
0.2% |
6.5% |
Sources:
USDA, WSJ Research
[Nov 5, 2010: USA Today:
Anti-Poverty Programs Surpass Cost of Medicare in US]
[May 25, 2010: 1 in 5.5 Dollars of
American Income Now Via Government; All time High]
[Oct 22, 2010: Reuters - The
Haves, the Have Nots, and the Dreamless Dead]
[Sep 3, 2010: FT.com - The Crisis
in Middle America]
[July 26, 2010: [Video]
DatelineNBC - America's Increasing Ranks of Poor]
original article’
Fading
Momentum: Dave's Daily ‘Some worry that interest rates are
rising quickly steepening the yield curve which in turn rallies the dollar and
hurts commodities. Clearly, rising interest rates have always been the enemy of
commodities especially when they rally the dollar. Politics are also in play as
investors fret that congress won't pass the Obama deal made with republicans.
That seems a little too short-term in thinking since next month republicans
take charge of the agenda either way. So, investors are trying to come to an
understanding of current conditions feeding sector rotation and a lack of
resolve. Copper has always been a measure of economic growth; hence the
"Dr. Copper" nickname given the metals ability to forecast
accurately. Copper prices are setting new highs and that indicates strong
demand particularly from China where every economist worries about bubbles and
economic dangers. But, I'll go with the good doctor. We haven't gotten much in
the way of economic data recently but that will change with Jobless Claims on
Thursday as if anyone cares based on recent reactions to both a good or poor
report. The lack of conviction is reflected by another low volume trading day
on Wednesday. Breadth was mixed.’
Bull Market for Traders Only
Hui ‘Further to my last post indicating
that the bulls are firmly in control of the stock market, I received a number
of comments to the effect of "what are risks in your forecast?"
BULLISH CALL FOR TRADERS ONLY
First of all, I would emphasize that my bullish call is for traders only.
Investors should be cognizant of the macro risks inherent in this market. I
agree with John Hussman that
central bank action is only propping up a house of cards and the macro risks
are considerable [my emphasis]:
I continue to view Bernanke's apparent objective for QE2
- to create a "wealth effect" by encouraging speculation in risk
assets - to be dangerously misguided. Historically, the elasticity of GDP to
changes in the stock market is on the order of 0.03 to 0.05, and is transitory
at that. In plain English, this means that even large changes in the value of
the stock market do not translate well into changes in GDP. This is because
consumers correctly consume on the basis of what they see as their
"permanent income," and are well aware that changes in volatile assets
tend to be transitory when they are not accompanied by growth in real output
and incomes. Bernanke is not thinking as an economist in this regard. He is
thinking like a witch doctor calling on animal spirits (ooh, eee, ooh-aah-aah,
ting, tang, walla-walla bing-bang).
And the ECB seems to be getting into the act as well:
Finally, last week, Jean Claude Trichet, the head of
the European Central Bank, provided early indications that the ECB would be
stepping up its buying peripheral government debt issued by Ireland, Greece,
Portugal and Spain. Of course, the ECB prefers to "sterilize" these
interventions, so it can be expected to sell the debt of stronger members such
as Germany. Accordingly, yields dropped on the debt of credit-strained European
countries, while German yields pushed to fresh yearly highs. It doesn't take
much thought to recognize that, like Bernanke's actions, the actions of the ECB
are ultimately likely to represent not monetary policy but fiscal policy. When
you buy the debt of countries that have a high likelihood of defaulting on this
debt, or will avoid default only by the creation of currency that could have
been issued to finance fiscal expenditures, it follows that you are engaging in
fiscal policy without the authorization of elected governments.
For the time being, my inner trader continues
to believe that central bankers are intent on throwing a huge party - so enjoy
it while you can (but don't forget to keep an eye on the exit).
KEEP AN EYE ON CHINA
While the risks posed by the actions of the Federal Reserve and the ECB are
longer term in nature, the biggest risk to the near term outlook continues to
be China. The Chinese economy may be slowing. Indicators such as the Baltic Dry Index are
suggestive of incipient weakness. The Chinese have indicated that they are
worried about inflation and they may take further stepss to
tighten monetary policy by increasing banking reserve ratios in 2011.
Other analysts have
indicated that the Chinese authorities may resort to interest rate increase and
possibly price controls.I believe that as long as the RMB-USD peg remains,
Federal Reserve actions (QE2, QE3...) are likely to export asset price
inflation to China and the Chinese authorities have limited tools available to
combat domestic inflationary pressures. The real risk becomes one of China
going overboard on the limited toolset that they have and send their economy
into a hard landing. Moreover, with the US recovery continuing to be anemic for
the forseeable future and the 2012 presidential election just over the horizon
next year, trade tensions with China are likely to rise in 2011 because of
domestic political considerations. What happens if either Washington or Beijing
miscalculates?
WATCH FOR SIGNS OF WEAKNESS
For the time being, I am watching the Shanghai market closely. The chart below
shows that while that market has retreated from recent highs, it appears to be
only corrective action (for now). Should the Shanghai Composite weaken further,
along with other indicators such as the Baltic Dry and more signs of Chinese
tightening, then it's time for the bulls to head for the exits. [chart] ‘
ETF Fund Flows: RSP Exceeds, SPY
Bleeds , On
Wednesday December 8, 2010, 11:00 am EST ‘Investors put $322
million into the Rydex S&P Equal Weight ETF (NYSEArca:RSP - News), while pulling $1.61 billion out
of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEArca:SPY - News), as total assets in U.S. ETFs
climbed to more than $986 million for the first time, according to data
compiled by IndexUniverse.com.The stock market was
about unchanged from Monday, as renewed concern about Ireland’s indebtedness
erased early gains related to a deal in Washington that extended Bush-era tax
cuts for two years. The Dow Jones industrial average declined 3.03 points,
closing at 11,359.16.SPY’s outflows were offset by a number of equity creations,
including $581.8 million that went into the small-cap Russell 2000 ETF
(NYSEArca:IWM - News). Also, $170.6 million went into
the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSEArca:DIA - News).Overall, net inflows across all
asset classes totaled $513.9 million.One noteworthy redemption was the $113.6 million
investors pulled out of the iShares Barclays 10-20 Year Treasury Bond Index
Fund (NYSEArca:TLH - News). That was one reflection in the
ETF world of how bond yields have been rising since the Federal Reserve
launched its quantitative easing plan several weeks ago.
Top 10 Creations (All ETFs)
Ticker |
Name |
Net Flows ($,mm) |
AUM ($, mm) |
AUM % Change |
IWM |
iShares
Russell 2000 |
581.78 |
16,645.71 |
4% |
RSP |
Rydex S&P
Equal Weight |
322.41 |
2,660.28 |
14% |
XLY |
Consumer
Discretionary Select Sector SPDR |
187.19 |
2,755.55 |
7% |
MDY |
SPDR
S&P MidCap 400 |
185.69 |
11,262.21 |
2% |
DIA |
SPDR Dow
Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust |
170.58 |
8,141.39 |
2% |
IWN |
iShares
Russell 2000 Value |
138.74 |
4,737.83 |
3% |
XRT |
SPDR
S&P Retail |
136.34 |
1,004.64 |
16% |
XLP |
Consumer
Staples Select Sector SPDR |
88.11 |
3,244.71 |
3% |
IWO |
iShares
Russell 2000 Growth |
77.21 |
4,032.33 |
2% |
EWJ |
iShares
MSCI Japan |
63.26 |
4,194.20 |
2% |
Top 10 Redemptions (All ETFs)
Ticker |
Name |
Net Flows ($,mm) |
AUM ($, mm) |
AUM % Change |
SPY |
SPDR
S&P 500 |
-1,608.97 |
83,909.98 |
-2% |
XLE |
Energy
Select Sector SPDR |
-115.07 |
8,595.43 |
-1% |
TLH |
iShares
Barclays 10-20 Year Treasury Bond |
-113.63 |
261.36 |
-30% |
XLI |
Industrial
Select Sector SPDR |
-107.52 |
3,581.61 |
-3% |
XLV |
Health
Care Select Sector SPDR |
-92.67 |
2,777.36 |
-3% |
USO |
United
States Oil |
-87.54 |
1,826.86 |
-5% |
XLF |
Financial
Select Sector SPDR |
-69.69 |
6,425.63 |
-1% |
EZU |
iShares
MSCI EMU |
-60.10 |
784.83 |
-7% |
VXX |
iPath
S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN |
-59.76 |
1,216.24 |
-5% |
IYR |
iShares
Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate |
-55.51 |
3,036.58 |
-2% |
ETF Daily Flows By Asset Class
|
Net Flows ($, mm) |
AUM ($, mm) |
% of AUM |
U.S.
Equity |
440.61 |
426,912.43 |
0.10% |
International
Equity |
222.91 |
275,769.02 |
0.08% |
U.S.
Fixed Income |
-100.22 |
134,897.89 |
-0.07% |
International
Fixed Income |
- |
6,560.80 |
0.00% |
Commodities |
-109.59 |
100,656.74 |
-0.11% |
Currency |
66.27 |
4,826.98 |
1.37% |
Leveraged |
34.90 |
12,875.81 |
0.27% |
Inverse |
-19.07 |
19,730.58 |
-0.10% |
Asset
Allocation |
- |
488.29 |
0.00% |
Alternatives |
-21.91 |
3,677.72 |
-0.60% |
Total: |
513.90 |
986,396.27 |
0.05% |
Top 10 Volume Surprises, Funds >$50 mm AUM
Ticker |
Name |
Average Volume |
1-Day Volume |
% of Average |
TLH |
iShares
Barclays 10-20 Year Treasury Bond |
55,196 |
868,506 |
1573% |
NFO |
Guggenheim
Insider Sentiment ETF |
61,743 |
600,007 |
972% |
PSK |
SPDR
Wells Fargo Preferred Stock |
26,692 |
209,858 |
786% |
IGM |
iShares
S&P North American Technology Sector |
51,616 |
386,731 |
749% |
IWW |
iShares
Russell 3000 Value |
33,016 |
233,096 |
706% |
GXC |
SPDR
S&P China |
127,541 |
729,452 |
572% |
IJT |
iShares
S&P SmallCap 600 Growth |
170,435 |
974,287 |
572% |
PWJ |
PowerShares
Dynamic Mid Cap Growth Portfolio |
36,161 |
175,514 |
485% |
VIS |
Vanguard
Industrials |
48,782 |
220,635 |
452% |
RYJ |
Guggenheim
Raymond James SB-1 Equity ETF |
12,506 |
53,949 |
431% |
Top 10 1-Day Performers, Excluding Leverage/Inverse Funds and >1,000
Shares Traded
Ticker |
Name |
1-Day Performance |
1-Day Volume |
AUM ($, mm) |
|
|
|
|
|
VNM |
Market
Vectors Vietnam |
4.15% |
725,554 |
210.48 |
TDH |
TDX
Independence 2020 |
2.48% |
4,815 |
41.24 |
STPP |
iPath
U.S. Treasury Steepener ETN |
2.42% |
12,000 |
6.80 |
CU |
First
Trust ISE Global Copper |
2.12% |
84,988 |
67.82 |
LD |
iPath Dow
Jones-UBS Lead Subindex Total Return ETN |
2.03% |
3,024 |
5.91 |
COPX |
Global X
Copper Miners |
1.95% |
295,794 |
52.42 |
EIRL |
iShares
MSCI Ireland Capped Investable Market |
1.95% |
4,075 |
3.03 |
PEK |
Market
Vectors China |
1.68% |
10,007 |
20.21 |
PTRP |
PowerShares
Global Progressive Transportation Portfolio |
1.56% |
1,440 |
6.07 |
Bottom 10 1-Day Performers, Excluding Leverage/Inverse Funds and
>1,000 Shares Traded
Ticker |
Name |
1-Day Performance |
1-Day Volume |
AUM ($, mm) |
CVOL |
C-Tracks
Exchange-Traded Notes on the Citi Volatility Index |
-5.40% |
2,500 |
16.40 |
SIVR |
ETFS
Physical Silver |
-5.11% |
1,141,269 |
461.69 |
SLV |
iShares
Silver |
-4.85% |
69,216,688 |
10,727.13 |
UBD |
Claymore
U.S. Capital Markets Bond |
-4.75% |
1,599 |
10.57 |
DTYL |
iPath
U.S. Treasury 10-Year Bull ETN |
-4.50% |
50,900 |
4.56 |
DBS |
PowerShares
DB Silver |
-4.48% |
182,890 |
189.25 |
PALL |
ETFS
Physical Palladium |
-3.73% |
469,888 |
834.16 |
ZROZ |
PIMCO 25+
Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury |
-3.58% |
32,338 |
35.58 |
GDXJ |
Market
Vectors Junior Gold Miners |
-3.55% |
4,292,186 |
2,235.34 |
GWO |
ELEMENTS
Credit Suisse Global Warming ETN |
-3.45% |
9,000 |
3.34 |
Drudgereport: US Treasuries hit by biggest sell-off since
LEHMAN...
Prices Plunge for 2nd Day on Deficit Fears...
Rattles investors...
Oil tipped to bubble over $100 barrel...
Food Stamp Rolls Continue to Rise...
SHOCK POLL: Americans Believe China Has Surpassed USA
in Economic Strength...
'U.S. fiscal health worse than Europe's'...
Sorkin: Palin TV show is 'snuff movie'... [ Yeah … ‘she’s really all that’ and worse …
I have great difficulty getting past the fact that she’s so incredibly dumb …
not just ‘nonintellectual’ … butt really dumb! ] ‘… Sorkin, writer of the recent Facebook movie The
Social Network, also accused the Fox News contributor of making a "snuff
film" after the latest episode of Sarah's Palin's Alaska featured the
politician going hunting with her father and shooting a caribou. He described
Palin as "deranged", a "witless bully" and a "phony
pioneer girl". He also said The Learning Channel, the US cable network,
"should be ashamed of itself" for broadcasting her "truly awful
reality show"…’
Senate convicts Clinton-appointed judge...
[ Come on! One way or another they’re almost all getting bribed; including the
initial lifetime appointment as alito, trump-barry, etc.. Abolish the
corrupt, costly, economically wasteful lifetime extravagantly appointed federal
courts (see RICO case http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) End those lifetime licenses to steel. ] In earlier hearings, two attorneys who once worked
with Porteous had testified that they gave him thousands of dollars in cash,
including about $2,000 stuffed in an envelope in 1999, just before Porteous
decided a major civil case in their client's favor.
Assange could face espionage trial in USA...
Palin under cyber attack...
1st Amendment issues...
Assange's 'poison pill' file impossible to stop...
WIKILEAKS: Stop Us? You'll Have to Shut Down Web...
Berkeley 'resolution' honoring leaker...
Scientologists outraged over spoof Christmas play... [ Hubbard was such a total fraud!
Scientologists are delusional! ]St. Petersburg, Florida – ‘A controversial holiday musical production is
set to open at American Stage Theatre in St. Petersburg. Photos: Pictures of
A Very Merry Unauthorized Children's Scientology Pageant "A
Very Merry Unauthorized Children's Scientology Pageant" is a musical play
designed for the holiday season, but this play will not focus on Jesus Christ,
but instead the story is about L. Ron Hubbard, the founder of the church Of
Scientology…’
NO BAIL...
Assange
'sabotaged condom' during one night stand...
Refused to wear one during another...
Stockholm police: Both women are victims...
INTERPOL WARRANT FOR NOT WEARING PROTECTION?
ASSANGE
UNDER ARREST:
'HE
DIDN'T WEAR A CONDOM'
Under
arrest, will Assange dump the Doomsday Files?
Assange:
Don't shoot messenger for revealing uncomfortable truths...
FLASHBACK:
HILLARY COMPLAINS GOVERNMENTS BLOCK FREE FLOW OF INFO ON INTERNET...
WIKILEAKS:
LIVE UPDATES...
FCC
push to regulate news draws fire...
Lieberman:
NYT may have committed crime by printing WIKILEAKS docs...
US
to Host World Press Freedom Day in 2011 … [ What a total travesty! The u.s. as
host … What a cruel joke! ] ...
OBAMA
RACES TO CUT TAXES BEFORE REPUBLICANS: 6.2% Social Security tax would drop to
4.2% for workers for one year... MORE
THE
NEW OBAMA!
SURPRISE TAX CUT
MOVE [ As with defacto bankrupt america
generally, more defacto bankrupt social security system, etc., are distinctions without significant
differences. ]
OIL
HITS $89...
Pump
prices hit 2-year high...
Schwarzenegger Declares Fiscal Emergency, Proposes $9.9 Billion In
Cuts...
Top
Democrats defect, join unified GOP...
WIKILEAKS'
Assange Will Release Encrypted Files If Arrested...
Cables
Reveal How US Manipulated Climate Accord...
Cable:
China Leaders Ordered Hacking on GOOGLE...
Meddling
by Neighbors Adds to Iraq's Woes...
Government
Workers Ordered Not to Read Cables...
Gingrich:
Leaks Show Admin 'Shallow,' 'Amateurish'...
McConnell:
Assange a 'High-Tech Terrorist'...
List of facilities 'vital to US security' leaked...
Mirror
Sites Appear by the Hundreds...
Assange
Speaks...
Hillary
Jokes...
US
forced to shake up embassies around world...
THE
DOOMSDAY FILES
PAPER:
Wave goodbye to Internet freedom...
[ I’m absolutely astounded that the world is not profoundly grateful to Assange
et als for providing insight into the machinations and insanity of pervasively
corrupt, defacto bankrupt america, et als who wreaked havoc on the world as
they pillage, plunder, and destroy (lives, nations, etc.). ]
+39,000
JOBS IN NOVEMBER...
BOEHNER: Dem Leaders Should Stop Wasting Time on Tax
Hike Votes...
HALPERIN: Dems 'In Midst of Nervous Breakdown'...
Obama Makes Surprise Trip to Afghanistan...
Flies 7,000 miles -- talks to Karzai for 15 minutes on
phone!
Forgets the Coast Guard...
Leaves Biden behind to handle 'disappointing' jobs
report...
Reid, funded by casinos, pushes online gambling...
ABCNEWS accused of breaking embargo...
2010
death toll of US troops nears that of 2001-2008 combined...
OBAMA SPEECHWRITER JOKES ABOUT TSA GROPING: Allows
'defrocked priests to give back to society'...
US
Deficit-Cutting Plan Falls Short of Needed Votes...
UNEMPLOYMENT UP TO 9.8%
HILLARY: Secretary of State will be 'my last public
position'... ... PITCHE$ $IGNED DVD ON HOME $HOPPING NETWORK..
US TO BAILOUT EU
[ Riiiiight! Sounds like a plan! After all, in defacto bankrupt america money
does grow on trees … derivatively (pun intended) that is … you know … that ever
more worthless fiat paper currency … and ultimately, existentially, philosophically,
doesn’t paper come from trees … sure it does …so, no problemo since money grows
on trees. ]
BOMBSHELL: European banks took big slice of
Fed aid...
Hundreds of billions of dollars...
Fed reveals global extent of its backing...
]
Funds went to stalwarts
of American industry including GE and Caterpillar and household-name companies
such as Verizon, new data show.
GEORGIA: HUNDREDS LINE UP IN COLD FOR HEAT HELP...
Assistance Funds Quickly Depleted...
'Almost like being in soup line during great
depression'...
VIDEO...
DELAYING TAX VOTE COULD 'CRASH
STOCK MARKET' STARTING 12/15 [ Come on! There’s no way to justify
the tax cut to the top 1% including the frauds on wall street … their threats
don’t hunt no more … the nation’s defacto bankrupt … see Davis, supra! ]
Chase Bank orders branch to remove Christmas tree...
Cyber attack forces WIKILEAKS to change web address...
Respected media outlets collaborate with
organization... [ Said
outlets and other disseminators and of course Wikileaks deserve accolades for
the advancement of first amendment liberties in the name of an informed global
body politick for all.]
UPDATE: Latest developments...
Foreign contractors hired Afghan 'dancing boys'...
Embassy cables portray Karzai as corrupt, erratic...
CIA drew up UN spying wishlist...
Assange speaks...
UPDATE: Latest WIKILEAKS developments...
Foreign contractors hired Afghan 'dancing boys'...
Embassy cables portray Karzai as corrupt, erratic...
CIA drew up UN spying wishlist...
SANTA CLAUSE: FED AID WENT TO COMPANIES, BANKS,
OFFSHORE...
SECRETLY BAILED OUT GE -- GE NEWS OUTLETS FAILED TO
REVEAL IN FED COVERAGE...
SANTA
CLAUSE: FORD, BMW, TOYOTA Took Secret Government Money......
Fed Created Conflicts in Improvising Financial System
Rescue...
Tax Breaks for Bailout Recipients Spark Debate...
MORE SECRETS: Fed Withholds Data for $885 Billion in
Loans...
RUSSIA TO HOST '18 WORLD CUP FINALS...
Qatar selected '22 host over USA, others...
'AMERICAN
PSYCHO' musical in works... [ I recommend the derivative films,
American Psycho and American Psycho 2,
for insight! ]
National Board of Review: SOCIAL NETWORK named best
film... [ National board of what? ‘Inception’ is by
far and away the ‘Best Film’ across the board, in all categories, and on the
list! ] LIST...
BANK OF AMERICA Becoming 'Bank of Asia' as
Revenue Increases 30% ...
RESET: PUTIN CRITICIZES USA OVER WIKILEAKS … [ Putin
deserves the greatest deference in matters of global concern in light of his
greater rationality; america’s self-serving accusations are merely envy and
projection / displacement (in psychoanalytic terms) of america’s pervasively
corrupt, criminal, broken system which is a far cry in reality from defacto
bankrupt america’s propaganda.]...
REWARD: [ The payoff. Bribe complete! Next bribe
scenario … ] CITI to Hire Obama's Ex-Budget Chief Orszag...
FLASHBACK: Rubin and friends ride NY-DC shuttle...
ZUCKERMAN: Watching America's Decline and Fall [the moral authority of the West has
dramatically declined in the face of the financial crisis. It has revealed deep
fault lines within Western economies that have spread to the global economy. The majority of Western governments
are running fiscal deficits of 10 percent or more relative to
GDP, but it is increasingly clear that there will be no quick fixes, that big
government and fiscal deficits will not bring us back to the status quo ante.
Indeed, the tidal wave of red ink has meant that the leverage-led or
debt-led growth model is dead. Developed countries will be forced to deal with
their debt on every level, from the personal to the corporate to the sovereign.
Being able to borrow may have made people feel richer, but having to repay the
debt is certainly making them feel poorer, particularly since the unfunded
liabilities that many governments face from aging populations will have to be
paid for by a shrinking band of workers. (Ecoutez, mes amis!) Demography is destiny. As a result, there is a
burgeoning consensus that we are witnessing an inevitable rise of the East and
a decline of the West…( Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012). ) ]...
Interpol issues wanted notice for Julian
Assange [ They just can’t take the truth! ] ...
US cuts access to files [ Think about it. Really think
about it. Their policies are in the tank, along with the nation and the rest of
this world as a consequence. Don’t those so detrimentally affected (everyone)
have a right to know? I think in light of the global frauds, contrived
perpetual wars though defacto bankruptcy of this and other nations, pervasive
corruption and crime, failed policies domestically and geo-politically while
serving the very parochial interests of the self-interested few, the answer is
an unequivocal, YES! I believe that world history will write Mr. Assange as a
hero in the truest sense. He should be given a medal; and, certainly, since mr.
b*** s*** wobama undeservingly got a ‘nobel peace prize’ (what he does, not
what he says, ie., Afghanistan, etc.), who more than Julian Assange is
deserving of that and more? Cover-up / propaganda … thy name is fallen
america.]...
WIKILECTURE: 'HILLARY SHOULD
RESIGN' ‘…Hillary Clinton, Julian Assange said, "should resign."
Speaking over Skype from an undisclosed location on Tuesday, the WikiLeaks
founder was replying to a question by TIME managing editor Richard Stengel over
the diplomatic-cable dump that Assange's organization loosed on the world this
past weekend. Stengel had said the U.S. Secretary of State was looking like
"the fall guy" in the ensuing controversy, and had asked whether her
firing or resignation was an outcome that Assange wanted. "I don't think
it would make much of a difference either way," Assange said. "But
she should resign if it can be shown that she was responsible for ordering U.S.
diplomatic figures to engage in espionage in the United Nations, in violation
of the international covenants to which the U.S. has signed up. Yes, she should
resign over that."…’
CITY ON EDGE: Cash-Strapped Newark, new jersey Forced
To Lay Off 14% Of Police Force... [ From decades old
(1978-1985) direct personal experience with newark, n.j., the police are the
absolute last cuts that can be afforded to be made. Indeed, while walking
through Military Park (a sliver of a “park” - more a pedestrian
thoroughfare/cement walks) in newark, new jersey on the way to the bank during
lunch hour, I heard the clearly audible screams/cries of what turned out to be
an old lady on the ground with blood streaming from her mouth. I ran toward the
sound of the cries, the source of which I could not see because there were so
many people in and about this thoroughfare so as to block any vision of the
source of the cries. When I came to the woman, on the ground, blood streaming
from her mouth, I asked what happened, to which she responded she had been hit
in the mouth and knocked to the ground, her purse stolen/put inside her
shopping bag, and she pointed out the criminal casually now walking across the
main street. Nobody stopped to help her, many having passed her by. I slammed
the thug to the ground so hard that, in light of all the blood and confusion
(limbic system / adrenalin flow) I thought I had been stabbed (the blood was
from his elbows hitting the pavement so hard - no one helped / a crowd gathered
/ an undercover cop happened along). When I testified at the Grand Jury
Proceeding I made sure his threat on my life was set forth in prima facie
fashion so as to maximize the DA’s position with both felonies ( he went to
prison – pled out ). The other case I wrote about here ( This was included on
my website in the Psychology forum discussion of ‘bystander effect’ / diffusion
of responsibility. ) - Having had occasion to have run down a mugger in newark,
n.j. who apparently had followed a girl from the bank on her way to the bursar
to pay tuition, though in pretty good shape, I was astounded by how totally
exhausting such a pursuit was, how much like rubber my arms were when I traded
punches with the perpetrator, and truth be told, if I had a flashlight on my
belt, I have little doubt that I would have probably used it to subdue the
perp. The girl was not that seriously injured, did get her pocketbook and
tuition back, and the criminal went to jail. The other thing about such a
pursuit that amazed me was that no one else assisted the girl or me despite
being in a position to do so). (Other newark / new jersey and new york, n.y.
metro, viz., ie., connecticut, and of course, d.c., d.c. metro, viz., ie.,
virginia experience … corrupt federal judges as maryanne trump barry, sam
alito, shiff, matz (california), hall, underhill, dorsey, etc.. Defacto
bankrupt america’s so-called system is pervasively corrupt and broken (AP) Abolish the corrupt, costly, economically
wasteful lifetime extravagantly appointed federal courts - see RICO case http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) ]
Nation's '2nd Most Dangerous City' (camden, new
jersey) To Lay Off Nearly Half Of Police Force...
Chicagoland: Vandals torch Christmas charity van...
Go to following pages for
above links:
http://www.albertpeia.com/currentopics2ndqtr10108.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm
http://www.scribd.com/alpeia
http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com
http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm
You may post a comment on
my blog on any topic: http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com
http://www.angelfire.com/indie/pearly/htmls/bush-carlyle.html ] Investment giant says it will likely sell shares.Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates tours eastern Afghanistan, days before the Obama administration is scheduled to complete a major review of its war strategy.
Tax
deal, spending plan up against a hectic finish (Washington Post) [ 1 out of 2 would be great
according to the vast national and world majority; specifically, pass the
nuclear arms treaty and don’t pass whatever’s necessary to keep the u.s.
government running. Please, in the yuletide spirit of peace on earth and good
will towards men, women, and children, don’t keep the u.s. government running. ] Congress will try to pass two major items
before the end of the year: a $1.1 trillion bill to keep the government running
and a nuclear arms treaty
State of the Market in Early
December 2010 Montgomery ‘The "Helicopter Economics Investing
Guide" is meant to help educate people on how to make profitable investing
choices in the current economic environment. We have coined this term to
describe the current monetary and fiscal policies of the U.S. government, which
involve unprecedented money printing. This is the official blog of the New York
Investing meetup:There is a lot of controversy currently on whether the markets
are bullish or bearish as we enter December. Most investors are on the bullish
side, yet there are voices of caution saying the market has gotten too frothy.
There is substantial evidence that the market is indeed over done on the
upside. Yet, there is a case to be made that it can get even more
overpriced.The first thing investors should note is that the U.S. stock market
has entered a period of volatility, with the Dow Jones Industrials commonly
going up or down more than 100 points in a day. Such wild swings are not
healthy for a market. They indicate indecision on the part of traders. The
market, like everything else, will eventually break if it is bent too
much.Certainly investors are generally very bullish, probably much too bullish
at this point. At the end of November, Investors Intelligence had the bulls at
over 55% and the bears at around 21%. These are classical points where the
market frequently turns. When too many people become bullish, there is
eventually no one else to buy and too many bears mean there is no one else to
sell. A recent global survey supports this view with large money managers
having only 3% of their funds in cash – the lowest level ever recorded. The
large funds, who move the markets with their actions, are basically tapped out
and have no more money to invest. So where is the money coming from for the
rally we saw the first three trading days of December?Quite simply, it’s coming
from the Federal Reserve. This doesn’t mean the Fed is buying stocks. It means
the Fed is pumping money (newly printed money) into the financial system and
this money is finding its way into the markets. For its current quantitative
easing program the Fed bought $8.17 billion in treasuries on December 1st,
$8.31 billion on December 2nd and $6.81 billion on December 3rd. Not only did
this drive U.S. stocks up, but gold broke above $1400 an ounce and oil hit $90
a barrel – both inflation indicators. The rising price of oil is particularly
significant since oil tends to hit seasonal lows in December and February and
yet it is going up now instead of down. Higher oil prices percolate through the
economy and lead to higher prices for a large number of items. They also
increase the U.S. trade deficit, which means the government has to borrow or
print even more money in order to fund it.Despite the obvious inflationary
implications of quantitative easing, the Fed consistently denies it will lead
to inflation even though excess money printing has always led to inflation in
the past. The original form of money printing was cutting the amount of gold or
silver in coins. It only took a short time before coinage was invented in 600
to 700 B.C.E. before one of the Greek city states caught on to this idea – the
government had over borrowed and wanted to pay back the money it owed with
cheaper currency (this should sound familiar to Americans in 2010). Paper money
was invented by the Chinese before 1000 A.D., but they eventually had to stop
using it because they made so much of it that it led to huge inflation. The
lessons of what happens when too much money it created go way back – yet
governments continue to it over and over again and with the same predictable
outcome. Yet, even though I have researched this extensively, I have not found
any government that ever admitted its role in creating inflation. It’s always
someone else or something else that is responsible.Most market observers are
bullish on the market because expansionary Fed policies should make stocks go
up. We have not only had a zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) since December 2008,
but the Fed is on its second round of money printing through quantitative
easing. Under ordinary circumstances, the stock market should be rising.
However, circumstances have hardly been ordinary since the Credit Crisis
began.We only have to look at what happened to the Japanese stock market to
predict the long-term impact of current Fed policies. The Japanese have had
close to zero interest rates for most of the 2000s. They also started engaging
in quantitative easing. This didn’t keep the Nikkei, which was close to 40,000
at its height at the beginning of 1990, from falling below 8000 in 2003 and in
2008/2009. The Japanese made other attempts to push their stock market up as
well – and these worked temporarily. Ultimately economic reality prevailed however.
In the long run this approach is not likely to work any better for Fed Chair
Ben Bernanke.The current quantitative easing program of the Fed is not working
as planned either. Interest rates were supposed to go down and so was the
trade-weighted U.S. dollar. Neither has happened. Interest rates went up – and
this is a negative for the market – and the dollar also went up instead of
going down. Interest rates are possibly going up because foreigners are selling
some of their large holdings of U.S. treasuries (the exporting countries are
extremely angry at Bernanke’s policies). The dollar is going up because of the
banking crisis in Ireland. The 85 billion euro bailout there has not calmed
markets because everyone realizes that there are major problems remaining in
Portugal and Spain. Both countries deny they need a bailout, but so did Ireland
right up to the last minute.The market is also rising on economic data that is
being reported as "good." This is mostly wishful thinking on the part
of the mass media and the government press releases that they publish without
much examination or by putting in context. Auto sales and consumer confidence
have been two oft cited pieces of evidence of an improving economy.Auto sales
which are supposedly taking place at a rate of 12.2 million a year have
frequently been brought up as evidence of a recovering economy. At the bottom
of the Credit Crisis, when the economy literally stopped dead in it tracks,
auto sales were approximately 10 million a year and at the top they were 17
million a year. So, they are indeed doing better than they did when the economy
was completely frozen (whether this can be referred to as a recovery is quite
another matter). The improvement in auto sales taking place now though is
nothing compared to the increases in the 1930s during the Great Depression,
which lasted for many years after the first big increases in auto sales were
reported.Consumer confidence rising to the 54 level also got a lot of hype. The
number needs to be over 90 to indicate an economy that is doing just OK. The
number during a boom would be well over 100. The slight chances in this figure
are nothing but statistical noise – meaningless changes caused by random
movements. What caused the slight increase were consumers becoming more
confident about the future state of the economy. This is not surprising since
they keep reading in the papers and hearing on TV that the economy is getting
better, even though they don’t see it in the everyday lives. The "present
conditions" number is still at an incredibly low 24. It has been stuck
around this level for a quite a long time.The November employment figures last
Friday also threw some cold water on the economic recovery scenario. The
government admitted to unemployment rising to a rate of 9.8%. The
underemployment rate, which includes some discouraged workers and
people forced to work part time was 17.0%. There has been little change in
these figures during 2010. Investors should remember that the stimulus bill
from early 2009 was supposed to prevent unemployment from rising above 8.0%.
The Fed’s first round of quantitative easing was also supposed to fix the
economy. Even though both failed, Washington is one of the few places where
lack of success isn’t a reason for not repeating an action.The failure of
Washington’s policies can be seen by how little the GDP improved despite the
massive stimulus that has been applied. In fiscal year 2010 (ending September
30th), the U.S. ran a budget deficit of 1,290 billion dollars (or $1.29
trillion). During the same time period, the GDP increased by 635.5 billion
dollars or slightly less than half of the budget deficit. So for every two
dollars being run in deficits, the U.S. is getting less than a dollar of
economic growth (and this is with a zero interest rates on Fed funds, the
return would diminish as interest rates got higher). The borrowed money for the
deficit still has to be paid back or reduced by creating inflation. There is no
way the U.S. will be able to pay back its national debt (the accumulation of
all the annual deficits) and the higher the total becomes the greater the
inflation that will eventually be necessary to deal with it.At the moment, the
U.S. stock market looks like it could be topping. Along with the volatility,
the technical indicators, such as the RSI, MACD and DMI are fairly negative.
The Dow industrial Average broke below its 50-day moving average in late
November, but rose above it on December 1st. The Dow is leading the market down
and it should be watched for the future direction of the market. The other
major indices – the S&P 500, the Nasdaq and the small cap Russell 2000 -
have still managed to stay above their simple 50-day moving averages. Until all
the indices have fallen below their 50-day moving averages, the stock market
should still be considered to be in an uptrend.While there will always be some
stocks that go up no matter how bad the market, at the moment, it is a
generally a good idea to avoid buying any more stocks or commodity ETFs. The
upside profit potential is probably limited. If you have large profits, you
should consider taking some money off the table. The classic trading rule of
thumb is that if you have a 100% profit in something, you should sell half of
your position. It also a good idea to keep reasonable stops (an automatic sell
at a price you have selected before hand). What is a reasonable stop depends on
how much profit you are willing to potentially give up.If you have a large
portfolio and wish to hedge it or you just want to take a short position on the
market, you can do so by buying the VXX,
the ETF for the VIX (the volatility index). The VXX is not perfect because it
unfortunately doesn’t precisely track the VIX. The big advantage of the VIX is
that when it gets very low, there is limited downside risk of loss (shorting a
stock can have an infinite risk of loss). In the current environment, a VIX
around 18 or below seems to be a good buy. It is possible that the VIX still
has to fill a gap in the 16s to 17s. If this happens - and it may not – this
should be considered a very good buy point. Like all investment positions, it’s
generally not a good idea to buy 100% of the position you ultimately want all
at once. Buying on days when the market is up a lot is the best approach.
Investors should be cautious at this point. The bullishness seems overdone and
things always look best at a top. The market could indeed go higher, but a lot
of risk is being taken on to make whatever extra money can be made. If you are
a day trader or very short-term trader, this can be a profitable time for you.
For position traders, with a trade horizon of several months or more, this is
not the best of times for additional long positions.’
Pakistani anti-Taliban militias offer lessons
for U.S. in Afghanistan (Washington Post) [ Riiiiight! The new pervasively corrupt,
defacto bankrupt american talking point … the new american-induced inbred
chaos, like ‘napalm in the morning in Vietnam’, smells like … victory…
riiiiight! … sounds a new new new new new plan! ]
Why Not Silver, Too?: Dave's Daily ‘Goldfinger may "love only gold" but methinks he's more
versatile. While gold continued its steady rally to new highs Monday, silver
continues to put on a show rising nearly 3%. What's driving this? Some suggest
there's still trouble with JPMs short position whether that's old news or not.
Further silver bulls argue silver should be priced at its historical price
ratio relationship to gold at around 18-1. If that were the case we'd be
pushing $80. Finally, has Bernanke and the Fed given the green light to higher
prices by saying POMO could increase if necessary?During Bernanke's 60 Minutes
interview he stated he could reverse inflation in minutes if the Fed chose to
raise interest rates. Since he said there was no inflation during the interview
and added the possibility of greater POMO it seems he can't reverse himself
now. Commodity exchanges will be pressured to raise margin requirements to cool
markets. That can work spectacularly in the short-run anyway; but, the sense is
silver is in short supply. Look, I've been in the business long enough to remember
the Hunt Bros debacle in the late 70s. I also remember having a Commodity
Trading Advisor being long silver futures in the mid-80s. Our clients were long
at $8 and I went into a meeting with the price at $12. There I pondered what
color my new Porsche would be and smirked at my peers. (Do you guys know how
smart and sharp I am?) But, alas, I left the meeting an hour later to find
silver back at $8. Given the experiences, I'd advise caution. Europe still has
its ubiquitous problems that seem never to end. It's scary in the sense the
current episode is reminiscent of the "drip, drip, drip" of bad news
from late 2007. This still troubles investors as they flock to precious metals.
Meanwhile back to conventional markets things were rather slow unless you were
one of the gang of 500
scam artists preparing for perp-walks. Light volume must have set a record
for a typical Monday in December. Breadth was positive to flat.’
AT&T is rated worst cellphone service
provider by Consumer Reports [ They should have also added land
lines to this ‘distinction’. ] Los
Angeles Times The magazine, known for independent testing of
consumer products, said AT&T came in last behind top scorer US Cellular.
Verizon Wireless, Sprint and T-Mobile also scored higher than the exclusive
service provider of ...
Timid
Tuesday: Is it Safe? Davis
‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are
simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of
global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form
of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh)
is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut
$100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while
continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1%
each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool
all of the people all of the time.
THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE
CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘
17 Things Worrying
Investors Lloyd's Wall of Worry
Worry Count: 17
CHINA: 1,330,044,605 people can’t be wrong.
The PIIGS: Fasten your seatbelts. It’s gonna be a long, bumpy,
expensive, weird, (insert your own adjective here) freak show of a ride.
CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER 49 STATES: Not yet as dire as “The PIIGS”.
Might I suggest the classier moniker of “The Prosciuttos” for the American
basket-case states?
QE II: Gobble?
U.S. ECONOMY: The “Punky Brewster” of the global economic landscape.
UNEMPLOYMENT: Only thing worse than losing your job, losing your
unemployment check. At least there’s the holiday season to cheer everyone up
(read: heavy sarcasm).
TAXES: Praying to the Financial Market Gods that we don’t have another
TARP-like vote fiasco.
OBAMA ADMINISTRATION PART II: Still two years before the Pres. election
and the peanut gallery is already pleading for a Hail Mary Pass to get them
back in the game.
HFT: Instead of beating up these liquidity supplying traders, let’s
honor them with their very own stock exchange. But wait -- with no retail
saps to pick-off they will never get that Day 1 opening bell tick. Perfect.
XMAS 2010: As my professor friend Nick says, “Nowadays Americans are
dining off of two menus – The Million Dollar and the $0.99 Cent.” And both
are pissed about it.
CURRENCIES: Poor Mr. Greenback. Does someone need a hug?
HOUSING CRISIS: Price Stabilization – Are we there yet? Just a little
bit more. Are we there yet? Just a little bit more. Are we there yet? Just a
little bit more….
INFLATION/DEFLATION: Fed Chief Ben B. comes out swinging from his heels
in defense of inflation promotion. Don’t punch yourself out as this one is
likely to go the distance.
COMMODITIES: Corrected but still sky high; fortunately these prices are
only affecting core, basic, life-sustaining necessities and sparing our electronic
gadgets and plus-sized SUVs. Whew!
INSIDER TRADING: Another black eye for Hedge Funds. I estimate that
makes black eye number 6,597.
INTEREST RATES: South Korea and China slowly turning up the dial to
“11”. On the other hand the U.S. has removed the dial altogether. This never
ends well….
NORTH KOREA: Here we go again.
Come on! This is gettin’ even more downright
ridiculous (if that’s even possible)! Pending home foreclosure / distress sales
up, oil prices (and oil stocks) up, debased dollar down, plus a little familiar
‘better than expected’ thrown in along with prospects of a ‘no-recession
bernanke’ market-frothing bull session on 60 minutes and, voila, suckers’ rally
into the close to keep the suckers suckered! What’s good for the frauds on wall
street is bad for just about everyone else which includes the vast majority of
people and businesses, domestically and globally, as current dollar
manipulation / debasement ultimately results in higher costs and loss of
purchasing power (ie., oil, etc.). Clearly, this is one of those fraudulent
wealth transfers to the frauds on wall street et als which will ultimately be
paid for by those who least are in a position to afford it, courtesy of the
ever more worthless Weimar dollar, etc., inflating earnings, eps, lowering p/e
multiples, etc., see infra. This is an especially great time to sell / take
profits while you can since there's much worse to come! Previous: Rosy numbers
on consumer sentiment, unemployment (far better than private forecasts) from
the government prior to the holiday so-called ‘shop till you drop’? How can
anyone believe anything they say? Najerian interviewed by Motek chimes in with
the reason for good retail cheer; viz., people have stopped paying their
mortgages and are using the funds to purchase retail goods; while Davidowitz
adds that with record numbers of americans on food stamps, real unemployment at
17+, and wall street giving out record bonuses from their accomplished fraud
(with no-recession b.s. bernanke help) of $144 BILLION … the high end stores / jewelers will do well
… daaaaah! And, with insiders and wall street frauds selling into the bubble as preceded
last crash, this is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits! Suckers’ rally on light volume, full
moon, and government complicity (false data / reports) to keep suckers suckered
(easy for the wall street frauds to do with just a mouse click / push of the
button – and, they know all those technical trade lines that are easy to
program in this current phase of the scam/fraud with the debased dollar). Keep
in mind, the totally mindless blather from the ‘cottage industries’ of and
fraudulent wall street itself in talking up lower P/E multiples when the same
is a direct result of the debasement of the dollar and the consequent
manipulation / translation (not real, see Davis, infra) which preceded the
financial crisis / last crash. Unemployment, trade, deficit, etc., numbers
continue decidedly worse than expected along with other negative data (and in
the ‘wrong direction’, that spin accorded ‘down but not as bad as before’ b***
s*** ) yet the market has rallied like no tomorrow with used home foreclosure /
distressed sales, though abated owing to ‘foreclosuregate’, the other
‘heralded’ good news. Moreover, the
dumbo lemmings of Europe have jumped on the fraudulent defacto bankrupt
american crazy train propelled to the precipice also as if no tomorrow. This is
about keeping the suckers sucked in with the help of a market-frothing
pre-election debased dollar for favorable currency translation and paper (but
not real when measured in, ie., gold, etc.) profits which preceded the last
crisis, inflating a bubble as in the last crisis to facilitate the
churn-and-earn, particularly with computerized (and high frequency) trades and
which commissions they’ll get again on the way down. There is nothing to support
these overbought stock prices, fundamentally or otherwise. These are desperate
criminals ‘at work’. Even wall street shill, the senile Buffett is saying we’re
still in a recession (depression)
[ Davis: ‘… all profits are inflated
by 10% (from falling, debased dollar) and that 10% is the E that gets divided
from the P and gives us a much better price/multiple to hang our hats on and
that gets investors to BUYBUYBUY …’ The bull market that never was / were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold ] This is a great
opportunity to sell / take profits (these lower dollar, hyperinflationary
currency manipulations / translations to froth paper stocks will end quite
badly as in last crash)! This
is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression.
The past up moves were manipulated bull (s***) cycles (at best) in a secular
bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the
prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders
commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street ‘programmed
computerized high-frequency churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as
in prior crashes ( widely reported, high-frequency trading routinely
accounts for more than 50% of daily U.S. equity trading volume and regularly
approaches 70%. )’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end
until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally
prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.The Stock Market's
Long Decline Has Begun Smith ]
Drudgereport: OBAMA
RACES TO CUT TAXES BEFORE REPUBLICANS: 6.2% Social Security tax would drop to
4.2% for workers for one year... MORE
THE
NEW OBAMA!
SURPRISE TAX CUT
MOVE [ As with defacto bankrupt america
generally, more defacto bankrupt social security system, etc., are distinctions without significant
differences. ]
OIL
HITS $89...
Pump
prices hit 2-year high...
Schwarzenegger Declares Fiscal Emergency, Proposes $9.9 Billion In
Cuts...
Top
Democrats defect, join unified GOP...
WIKILEAKS'
Assange Will Release Encrypted Files If Arrested...
Cables
Reveal How US Manipulated Climate Accord...
Cable:
China Leaders Ordered Hacking on GOOGLE...
Meddling
by Neighbors Adds to Iraq's Woes...
Government
Workers Ordered Not to Read Cables...
Gingrich:
Leaks Show Admin 'Shallow,' 'Amateurish'...
McConnell:
Assange a 'High-Tech Terrorist'...
List of facilities 'vital to US security' leaked...
Mirror
Sites Appear by the Hundreds...
Assange
Speaks...
Hillary
Jokes...
US
forced to shake up embassies around world...
THE
DOOMSDAY FILES
PAPER:
Wave goodbye to Internet freedom...
[ I’m absolutely astounded that the world is not profoundly grateful to Assange
et als for providing insight into the machinations and insanity of pervasively
corrupt, defacto bankrupt america, et als who wreaked havoc on the world as they
pillage, plunder, and destroy (lives, nations, etc.). ]
+39,000
JOBS IN NOVEMBER...
BOEHNER: Dem Leaders Should Stop Wasting Time on Tax
Hike Votes...
HALPERIN: Dems 'In Midst of Nervous Breakdown'...
Obama Makes Surprise Trip to Afghanistan...
Flies 7,000 miles -- talks to Karzai for 15 minutes on
phone!
Forgets the Coast Guard...
Leaves Biden behind to handle 'disappointing' jobs
report...
Reid, funded by casinos, pushes online gambling...
ABCNEWS accused of breaking embargo...
2010
death toll of US troops nears that of 2001-2008 combined...
OBAMA SPEECHWRITER JOKES ABOUT TSA GROPING: Allows
'defrocked priests to give back to society'...
US
Deficit-Cutting Plan Falls Short of Needed Votes...
UNEMPLOYMENT UP TO 9.8%
HILLARY: Secretary of State will be 'my last public
position'... ... PITCHE$ $IGNED DVD ON HOME $HOPPING NETWORK..
US TO BAILOUT EU
[ Riiiiight! Sounds like a plan! After all, in defacto bankrupt america money
does grow on trees … derivatively (pun intended) that is … you know … that ever
more worthless fiat paper currency … and ultimately, existentially,
philosophically, doesn’t paper come from trees … sure it does …so, no problemo
since money grows on trees. ]
BOMBSHELL: European banks took big slice of
Fed aid...
Hundreds of billions of dollars...
Fed reveals global extent of its backing...
]
Funds went to stalwarts
of American industry including GE and Caterpillar and household-name companies
such as Verizon, new data show.
GEORGIA: HUNDREDS LINE UP IN COLD FOR HEAT HELP...
Assistance Funds Quickly Depleted...
'Almost like being in soup line during great
depression'...
VIDEO...
DELAYING TAX VOTE COULD 'CRASH
STOCK MARKET' STARTING 12/15 [ Come on! There’s no way to justify
the tax cut to the top 1% including the frauds on wall street … their threats
don’t hunt no more … the nation’s defacto bankrupt … see Davis, supra! ]
Chase Bank orders branch to remove Christmas tree...
Cyber attack forces WIKILEAKS to change web address...
Respected media outlets collaborate with
organization... [ Said
outlets and other disseminators and of course Wikileaks deserve accolades for
the advancement of first amendment liberties in the name of an informed global
body politick for all.]
UPDATE: Latest developments...
Foreign contractors hired Afghan 'dancing boys'...
Embassy cables portray Karzai as corrupt, erratic...
CIA drew up UN spying wishlist...
Assange speaks...
UPDATE: Latest WIKILEAKS developments...
Foreign contractors hired Afghan 'dancing boys'...
Embassy cables portray Karzai as corrupt, erratic...
CIA drew up UN spying wishlist...
SANTA CLAUSE: FED AID WENT TO COMPANIES, BANKS,
OFFSHORE...
SECRETLY BAILED OUT GE -- GE NEWS OUTLETS FAILED TO
REVEAL IN FED COVERAGE...
SANTA
CLAUSE: FORD, BMW, TOYOTA Took Secret Government Money......
Fed Created Conflicts in Improvising Financial System
Rescue...
Tax Breaks for Bailout Recipients Spark Debate...
MORE SECRETS: Fed Withholds Data for $885 Billion in
Loans...
RUSSIA TO HOST '18 WORLD CUP FINALS...
Qatar selected '22 host over USA, others...
'AMERICAN
PSYCHO' musical in works... [ I recommend the derivative films,
American Psycho and American Psycho 2,
for insight! ]
National Board of Review: SOCIAL NETWORK named best
film... [ National board of what? ‘Inception’ is by
far and away the ‘Best Film’ across the board, in all categories, and on the
list! ] LIST...
BANK OF AMERICA Becoming 'Bank of Asia' as
Revenue Increases 30% ...
RESET: PUTIN CRITICIZES USA OVER WIKILEAKS … [ Putin
deserves the greatest deference in matters of global concern in light of his
greater rationality; america’s self-serving accusations are merely envy and
projection / displacement (in psychoanalytic terms) of america’s pervasively
corrupt, criminal, broken system which is a far cry in reality from defacto
bankrupt america’s propaganda.]...
REWARD: [ The payoff. Bribe complete! Next bribe
scenario … ] CITI to Hire Obama's Ex-Budget Chief Orszag...
FLASHBACK: Rubin and friends ride NY-DC shuttle...
ZUCKERMAN: Watching America's Decline and Fall [the moral authority of the West has
dramatically declined in the face of the financial crisis. It has revealed deep
fault lines within Western economies that have spread to the global economy. The majority of Western governments
are running fiscal deficits of 10 percent or more relative to
GDP, but it is increasingly clear that there will be no quick fixes, that big
government and fiscal deficits will not bring us back to the status quo ante.
Indeed, the tidal wave of red ink has meant that the leverage-led or
debt-led growth model is dead. Developed countries will be forced to deal with
their debt on every level, from the personal to the corporate to the sovereign.
Being able to borrow may have made people feel richer, but having to repay the
debt is certainly making them feel poorer, particularly since the unfunded
liabilities that many governments face from aging populations will have to be
paid for by a shrinking band of workers. (Ecoutez, mes amis!) Demography is destiny. As a result, there is a
burgeoning consensus that we are witnessing an inevitable rise of the East and
a decline of the West…( Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012). ) ]...
Interpol issues wanted notice for Julian
Assange [ They just can’t take the truth! ] ...
US cuts access to files [ Think about it. Really think
about it. Their policies are in the tank, along with the nation and the rest of
this world as a consequence. Don’t those so detrimentally affected (everyone)
have a right to know? I think in light of the global frauds, contrived
perpetual wars though defacto bankruptcy of this and other nations, pervasive
corruption and crime, failed policies domestically and geo-politically while
serving the very parochial interests of the self-interested few, the answer is
an unequivocal, YES! I believe that world history will write Mr. Assange as a
hero in the truest sense. He should be given a medal; and, certainly, since mr.
b*** s*** wobama undeservingly got a ‘nobel peace prize’ (what he does, not
what he says, ie., Afghanistan, etc.), who more than Julian Assange is
deserving of that and more? Cover-up / propaganda … thy name is fallen
america.]...
WIKILECTURE: 'HILLARY SHOULD
RESIGN' ‘…Hillary Clinton, Julian Assange said, "should resign."
Speaking over Skype from an undisclosed location on Tuesday, the WikiLeaks
founder was replying to a question by TIME managing editor Richard Stengel over
the diplomatic-cable dump that Assange's organization loosed on the world this
past weekend. Stengel had said the U.S. Secretary of State was looking like
"the fall guy" in the ensuing controversy, and had asked whether her
firing or resignation was an outcome that Assange wanted. "I don't think
it would make much of a difference either way," Assange said. "But
she should resign if it can be shown that she was responsible for ordering U.S.
diplomatic figures to engage in espionage in the United Nations, in violation
of the international covenants to which the U.S. has signed up. Yes, she should
resign over that."…’
CITY ON EDGE: Cash-Strapped Newark, new jersey Forced
To Lay Off 14% Of Police Force... [ From decades old
(1978-1985) direct personal experience with newark, n.j., the police are the
absolute last cuts that can be afforded to be made. Indeed, while walking
through Military Park (a sliver of a “park” - more a pedestrian
thoroughfare/cement walks) in newark, new jersey on the way to the bank during
lunch hour, I heard the clearly audible screams/cries of what turned out to be
an old lady on the ground with blood streaming from her mouth. I ran toward the
sound of the cries, the source of which I could not see because there were so
many people in and about this thoroughfare so as to block any vision of the
source of the cries. When I came to the woman, on the ground, blood streaming
from her mouth, I asked what happened, to which she responded she had been hit
in the mouth and knocked to the ground, her purse stolen/put inside her
shopping bag, and she pointed out the criminal casually now walking across the
main street. Nobody stopped to help her, many having passed her by. I slammed
the thug to the ground so hard that, in light of all the blood and confusion
(limbic system / adrenalin flow) I thought I had been stabbed (the blood was
from his elbows hitting the pavement so hard - no one helped / a crowd gathered
/ an undercover cop happened along). When I testified at the Grand Jury
Proceeding I made sure his threat on my life was set forth in prima facie
fashion so as to maximize the DA’s position with both felonies ( he went to
prison – pled out ). The other case I wrote about here ( This was included on
my website in the Psychology forum discussion of ‘bystander effect’ / diffusion
of responsibility. ) - Having had occasion to have run down a mugger in newark,
n.j. who apparently had followed a girl from the bank on her way to the bursar
to pay tuition, though in pretty good shape, I was astounded by how totally
exhausting such a pursuit was, how much like rubber my arms were when I traded
punches with the perpetrator, and truth be told, if I had a flashlight on my
belt, I have little doubt that I would have probably used it to subdue the
perp. The girl was not that seriously injured, did get her pocketbook and
tuition back, and the criminal went to jail. The other thing about such a
pursuit that amazed me was that no one else assisted the girl or me despite
being in a position to do so). (Other newark / new jersey and new york, n.y.
metro, viz., ie., connecticut, and of course, d.c., d.c. metro, viz., ie.,
virginia experience … corrupt federal judges as maryanne trump barry, sam
alito, shiff, matz (california), hall, underhill, dorsey, etc.. Defacto
bankrupt america’s so-called system is pervasively corrupt and broken (AP) Abolish the corrupt, costly, economically
wasteful lifetime extravagantly appointed federal courts - see RICO case http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) ]
Nation's '2nd Most Dangerous City' (camden, new
jersey) To Lay Off Nearly Half Of Police Force...
Chicagoland: Vandals torch Christmas charity van...
A
resurgent Syria alarms u.s., israel (Washington Post) [ Tell me! What doesn’t alarm these two
paranoid, zionist neo-nazi regimes of oppression, suppression, aggression, and
regression. If they were individuals, they’d undoubtedly be diagnosed as
psychopaths, sociopaths totally ignorant of the rights of others, laws,
civilized behavior as israel pads her illegal nuke arsenals with american
supplied weaponry / support while expecting all other nations to ‘role over and
die’. Bipolar / manic / depressive, the ups and downs are increasingly
difficult for even americans to follow. Obssessive / compulsive thy names are
zionist israel / america. Projection / displacement regarding their own illegal
acts, war crimes, etc.; what they say as distinguished from what they do …
dissociative fugue? Yes … the u.s. and israel are the world’s lunatics, sorely
in need of therapy! ] Syria's fresh
interference in Lebanon and its increasingly sophisticated weapons shipments to
Hezbollah have alarm officials and prompt Israel's military to consider
striking a Syrian weapons depot.
Super
PACs boost super wealthy's clout (Washington Post) [ Oh yeah! It’s really worked like
a charm … for them … as the nation’s decline and fall is no longer a matter of
debate but reality. What really gets me is the blather about american
‘democracy’ as if it’s something that’s real as opposed to fantasy /
propaganda; especially in the context of (illegally) ‘bringing democracy’ to
such nations as Iraq, Afghanistan, etc.. At best, pervasively corrupt defacto
bankrupt america is a plutocracy, albeit a failed one; and quite frankly, I
think america to be no more than a huge mob, cartel, of meaningfully lawless
thugs. ZUCKERMAN:
Watching America's Decline and Fall [the moral authority of the West has dramatically
declined in the face of the financial crisis. It has revealed deep fault lines
within Western economies that have spread to the global economy. The majority of Western governments are running
fiscal deficits of 10 percent or more relative to GDP, but it is
increasingly clear that there will be no quick fixes, that big government and
fiscal deficits will not bring us back to the status quo ante. Indeed, the
tidal wave of red ink has meant that the leverage-led or
debt-led growth model is dead. Developed countries will be forced to deal with
their debt on every level, from the personal to the corporate to the sovereign.
Being able to borrow may have made people feel richer, but having to repay the
debt is certainly making them feel poorer, particularly since the unfunded
liabilities that many governments face from aging populations will have to be
paid for by a shrinking band of workers. (Ecoutez, mes amis!) Demography is destiny. As a result, there is a
burgeoning consensus that we are witnessing an inevitable rise of the East and
a decline of the West…( Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012). ) ]... ]
OPINION:
Why prosecuting Assange won't be easy (Washington Post) [ ‘charges he
denies and claims are part of an effort to shut him down’ … I believe Assange.
Indeed, such as this is typical and ultimately part of america’s decline and
fall as spurious charges / no action against major criminals (ie., wall street
frauds, criminal acts by government employees in all three branches of the u.s.
government, etc.) have long been america’s injustice department’s strong suit.
Yeah! One, Assange, against the many / mighty is also the bully scenario evidenced
by america’s contrived / illegal conflicts / wars; ie., Granada, Panama, Iraq,
Afghanistan, etc., while real criminals who’ve been greasing palms have not a
care in the world beyond their next scam / fraud as the fruits of their last
financial crisis inducing fraud continue to be consummated by those worthless
now ‘marked to anything’ paper assets are converted to hard fiat currency with
a complicit fed, all three branches of the u.s. government (see RICO case http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ), and surprisingly, the lemmings of
Europe. ]
Pending
Home Sales Up; Pending Stock Sales Down
The Inflation Trader ‘The stock market continues to look like a
one-decision investment, as investors piled in for a second day and drove
prices still higher. The S&P rose 1.3%, reflecting the ebullience and dare
I say exuberance in European bond markets. Portuguese 10-year debt rallied
55bps, Ireland improved 36bps, and Greece and Spain both picked up 24bps (poor
Ireland rallied a mere 14bps). The occasion for this show of enthusiasm was the
meeting of the ECB – actually, more to the point it was that the ECB went into
the market to buy bonds right after the meeting. Clearly banks and investors
had been pleading for additional support of the sovereign bond market (which
they got) and an extension and even expansion of the special liquidity
facilities (they got a one-quarter extension of special loans from the ECB, but
no expansion of the program). But the ECB didn’t exactly surprise the market.
ECB President Trichet, insisting that recent growth numbers have surprised on
the upside … imagine how many banks would have failed already if growth had
surprised on the downside!! … admitted that growth risks are currently tilted
to the downside although he saw inflation risks as balanced. Yawn. The equity
market rally was aided by a surge in October Pending Home Sales, which leapt
10% month-over-month. Investors overlooked the worse-than-expected Initial
Claims (although 436k is still better than we have seen for a while) to focus
on this rather unimportant report. To put the jump into context, I think it is
worthwhile to look at the year-on-year number. See the chart below, click
to enlarge, (Source: Bloomberg) for that. You see, we also had a surge in
Pending Home Sales last fall, so that the monthly spike appears more
likely to be the result of poor seasonal adjustment affecting the report in the
autumn.
Yeah, the
monthly surge in pending home sales doesn't really look impressive on a y/y
basis. U.S. Treasury note yields rose on all of the (scoff!) good news, with
the 10y yield rising to a heady 2.99%. The dollar weakened, and the VIX
weakened. It would seem that many investors feel the crisis is over. Again. Or
perhaps they just hope that it is over for this year. Before we get too far out
in front of this wonderful, powerful, riskless recovery, we probably should
pause to look at today’s Employment report. Recall that last month’s report was
a mess, with strong private payrolls yet an Unemployment Rate that barely
missed ticking higher and a labor force participation rate that fell
to a 24-year low. The market that day initially focused on the Jobs number but
was unable to hold early gains. However, looking back on it now, people seem to
recall that it was a strong Employment report and they are looking to draw
grand conclusions if today’s report makes it two in a row. The Consensus
forecast is achievable, with expectations for 150k new jobs and a 9.6%
Unemployment Rate (unchanged, but this probably implies a small improvement).
But while Initial Claims have recently looked positive, there are other
indicators that are not so strong. In particular I am mindful of the
Jobs-Hard-To-Get element of the Consumer Confidence report. The ADP, which
clocked in at a better-than-expected +93k on Wednesday, is consistent with a
101k showing from private payrolls (see chart below, click to enlarge).
[chart]
The 93k ADP figure suggests that +100k is roughly what we should expect from
private payrolls. Accordingly, I am not very sanguine about the number later
today, although I don’t expect a huge miss; given the recent rally into previous resistance I think that
playing stocks from the short side is a defensible trading strategy. It also is
not clear to me that, once the ECB stops buying PIIGS bonds, there will be lots
of other buyers lined up behind them – so while I wouldn’t short PIIGS bonds
for spite (it is usually a bad short-term bet to fade the central
bankers), if I were long I would get out. The Non-Manufacturing ISM (Consensus:
54.8 from 54.3) is also scheduled for a mid-morning release. This isn’t likely
to be a market mover.’
Soft
Jobs Figure Halts Run Of Upbeat Data ‘The U.S. economy added just 39,000
jobs in November, a far cry below expectations, and the unemployment rate rose
to 9.8%. Friday's nonfarm payrolls from the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor
Statistics stunned Wall Street, sending index futures from modest gains to
losses of better than 0.5% in pre-market trading. The weak report – private
sector payrolls added just 50,000 jobs, compared with expectations for about
140,000 – came amid a string of more upbeat data, including Thursday's weekly
jobless claims report. The number of discouraged workers climbed to 1.3
million in November, up 421,000 from a year ago. The closely-watched measure of
the average workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours and hourly earnings inched up
just a penny to $22.75. With those figures it comes as little surprise that the
number of workers involuntarily working part-time because they can't find
full-time jobs was barely changed at 9 million.Temp jobs continued to rise,
adding another 40,000 jobs, as did healthcare with a gain of 19,000, but retail
trade employment was down 28,000 and manufacturing shed 13,000 jobs. ‘
Initial
Weekly Claims Rise 26,000 [ Bad,
worse than expected news … stocks rally … what fraud / b*** s***. ] ]NEW YORK (TheStreet) – ‘The number of
Americans filing unemployment claims for the first time rose more than expected
last week, the Labor Department said early Thursday. The advance figure for
seasonally adjusted initial claims increased by a higher-than-expected 26,000
to 436,000 in the week ended Nov. 27, from the previous week's upwardly revised
estimate of 410,000. Analysts were expecting initial claims to rise to 422,000,
after it dropped to 407,000, its lowest level since July 2008 in the previous
week. The number of Americans filing continuing claims -- those who have been
receiving unemployment insurance for at least a week -- came in higher than
expected at 4.27 million for the week ended Nov. 20, an increase of 53,000 from
the previous week's revised figure of 4.217 million. Consensus estimates
projected continuing claims to come in at 4.2 million. The four-week moving
average in initial claims, which smoothes the volatility in week-to-week
reports, was 431,000, a decrease of 5,750 from the previous week's revised
average of 436,750. The four-week moving average in continuing claims was 4.288
million, a decrease of 29,250 from the preceding week's revised average of
4.317 million. The numbers do not include millions of those who claim benefits
under the extended unemployment benefits program. The advance seasonally
adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.4% for the week ending Nov. 20,
unchanged from the previous week's upwardly revised level of 3.4 percent…’
John
Hussman's Index: Stocks Are 13% Overvalued John Hussman, manager of Hussman Strategy Growth Fund
(HSGFX), proposed price to peak 10 year average earnings as a long term stock
market valuation metric. Compared with the normal one year price to earning
ratio, Price to Peak Earnings would eliminate short term noise. This is similar
to Shiller's ‘Cyclically Adjusted Price Earning’
ratio (CAPE10) and Warren Buffett’s stock market
GNP/GDP metric.In his weekly commentary on Dec 5, 2005, titled as 'Earnings Revert to the Mean,
Stocks Will Struggle', he proposed a simplistic method: "buy
when Price to Peak Earnings is lower than 15 and sell when it exceeds
19.5". John Hussman has been using this as the valuation yardstick to manage
the Hussman Strategic Growth Fund HSGFX.A model portfolio called P Hussman Peak PE Market Timing
Strategy Buy 15 Sell 19.5 Weekly is also maintained to live monitor
the strategy suggested in 'Earnings Revert to the Mean,
Stocks Will Struggle'. click [chart] On Nov
19, 2010, the ratio of Real Price to the average of last 10 year Peak Real
Earnings (13.44) to its long term average (11.93) is 1.13. The US stock market is 13%
overvalued. We will be tracking this number biweekly.
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored A viral You Tube upload of
one of Alex Jones’ most popular feature films ‘The Obama Deception’ has been
censored following a spur of the moment campaign to elevate the movie’s title
to the top of the major internet search engines. In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Communications
lay bare Afghan corruption
(Washington Post) [ Corruption?
The same, along with the american re-invigorated heroin trade there go hand in hand. There were no illusions
concerning karzai and brother’s ties to same and the cia and the same also the
very reason for choosing him. ‘Tens of millions of dollars are carried out of Afghanistan
each month, with no telling how much is illicit. The country's dominant money
exchange caters to "narco-traffickers, insurgents, and criminals"
also known as the cia and friends. Come on! Wake up! You’re paying for this and
their enrichment. These revelations confirm the obvious.] WikiLeaks disclosures
provide new details showing how corruption has undermined progress in a country
that is in many ways a 9-year-old project in U.S. nation-(destruction,
including defacto bankrupt america) building. Leaks
reveal frustration with Karzai Inquiry:
Troop killed aid worker
Obama,
GOP in quiet talks to extend tax cuts (Washington
Post) [ How can this be justified for the ‘top 1%’ economically, financially,
fiscally, rationally, morally, etc.. The nation’s defacto bankrupt and not by a
small margin. Davis weighs in with reality (and see infra) ‘ …
This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply
happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global
GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of
unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is
to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn
worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to
spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year).
There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the
people all of the time. THIS
HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! … ‘ ] The discussions, which parallel a more
public set of talks, have left many Democrats grousing that the president is
being too quick to accommodate GOP.
Bulls Charge On With Blinders: Dave's Daily ‘More POMO
($8.3 billion), better Retail Sales reports and Pending Home Sales data
(+10.4%) allow bulls to build on yesterday's rally. Any worries from Europe,
China tightening, higher Jobless Claims are mere inconveniences when the light
is a bright green. Let's face it. This is what the Fed stated they wanted with
their POMO activities -- higher prices overall with higher stock prices
emphasized. The Fed prints money and buys bonds from the Primary Dealers and
(wink, wink) they know what they're supposed to do with it. Bears just better
get out of the way. Friday presents the
unemployment report which should be a nonevent if numbers are bad -- remember,
and keep repeating this mantra as you try to reason with events: "bad news
is good, good news is better." That should do the trick…’
Initial
Weekly Claims Rise 26,000 [ Bad,
worse than expected news … stocks rally … what fraud / b*** s***. ] ]NEW YORK (TheStreet) – ‘The number of
Americans filing unemployment claims for the first time rose more than expected
last week, the Labor Department said early Thursday. The advance figure for
seasonally adjusted initial claims increased by a higher-than-expected 26,000
to 436,000 in the week ended Nov. 27, from the previous week's upwardly revised
estimate of 410,000. Analysts were expecting initial claims to rise to 422,000,
after it dropped to 407,000, its lowest level since July 2008 in the previous
week. The number of Americans filing continuing claims -- those who have been
receiving unemployment insurance for at least a week -- came in higher than
expected at 4.27 million for the week ended Nov. 20, an increase of 53,000 from
the previous week's revised figure of 4.217 million. Consensus estimates
projected continuing claims to come in at 4.2 million. The four-week moving
average in initial claims, which smoothes the volatility in week-to-week
reports, was 431,000, a decrease of 5,750 from the previous week's revised
average of 436,750. The four-week moving average in continuing claims was 4.288
million, a decrease of 29,250 from the preceding week's revised average of
4.317 million. The numbers do not include millions of those who claim benefits
under the extended unemployment benefits program. The advance seasonally
adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.4% for the week ending Nov. 20,
unchanged from the previous week's upwardly revised level of 3.4 percent…’
Come on! Suckers’ rally to keep the suckers
suckered! Clearly, this is one of those fraudulent wealth transfers to the
frauds on wall street et als which will ultimately be paid for by those who
least are in a position to afford it, courtesy of the ever more worthless
Weimar dollar, etc., inflating earnings, eps, lowering p/e multiples, etc., see
infra. This is an especially great time to sell / take profits while you can
since there's much worse to come! Previous: Rosy numbers on consumer sentiment,
unemployment (far better than private forecasts) from the government prior to
the holiday so-called ‘shop till you drop’? How can anyone believe anything
they say? Najerian interviewed by Motek chimes in with the reason for good
retail cheer; viz., people have stopped paying their mortgages and are using
the funds to purchase retail goods; while Davidowitz adds that with record
numbers of americans on food stamps, real unemployment at 17+, and wall street
giving out record bonuses from their accomplished fraud (with no-recession b.s.
bernanke help) of $144 BILLION … the
high end stores / jewelers will do well … daaaaah! And, with insiders and wall street frauds selling
into the bubble as preceded last crash, this is an especially great opportunity
to sell / take profits! Suckers’ rally on light volume, full moon, and government
complicity (false data / reports) to keep suckers suckered (easy for the wall
street frauds to do with just a mouse click / push of the button – and, they
know all those technical trade lines that are easy to program in this current
phase of the scam/fraud with the debased dollar). Keep in mind, the totally
mindless blather from the ‘cottage industries’ of and fraudulent wall street
itself in talking up lower P/E multiples when the same is a direct result of
the debasement of the dollar and the consequent manipulation / translation (not
real, see Davis, infra) which preceded the financial crisis / last crash.
Unemployment, trade, deficit, etc., numbers continue decidedly worse than
expected along with other negative data (and in the ‘wrong direction’, that
spin accorded ‘down but not as bad as before’ b*** s*** ) yet the market has
rallied like no tomorrow with used home foreclosure / distressed sales, though
abated owing to ‘foreclosuregate’, the other ‘heralded’ good news. Moreover, the dumbo lemmings of Europe have
jumped on the fraudulent defacto bankrupt american crazy train propelled to the
precipice also as if no tomorrow. This is about keeping the suckers sucked in
with the help of a market-frothing pre-election debased dollar for favorable
currency translation and paper (but not real when measured in, ie., gold, etc.)
profits which preceded the last crisis, inflating a bubble as in the last crisis
to facilitate the churn-and-earn, particularly with computerized (and high
frequency) trades and which commissions they’ll get again on the way down.
There is nothing to support these overbought stock prices, fundamentally or
otherwise. These are desperate criminals ‘at work’. Even wall street shill, the
senile Buffett is saying we’re still in a recession (depression) [ Davis: ‘… all
profits are inflated by 10% (from falling, debased dollar) and that 10% is the
E that gets divided from the P and gives us a much better price/multiple to
hang our hats on and that gets investors to BUYBUYBUY …’ The bull market that never was / were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold ] This is a great
opportunity to sell / take profits (these lower dollar, hyperinflationary
currency manipulations / translations to froth paper stocks will end quite
badly as in last crash)! This
is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression.
The past up moves were manipulated bull (s***) cycles (at best) in a secular
bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the
prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders
commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street ‘programmed
computerized high-frequency churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as
in prior crashes ( widely reported, high-frequency trading routinely
accounts for more than 50% of daily U.S. equity trading volume and regularly
approaches 70%. )’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end
until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally
prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.The Stock Market's
Long Decline Has Begun Smith ]
Are Stocks Cheap? [
Reality’s short anwer: NO! NO! NO! ] , On Tuesday November 30, 2010 Are
Stocks Over Loved and Over Valued? [ Is the Pope Catholic? Do bears s***
in the woods? … Reality’s short answer: YES! YES! YES! ]
, On Monday
November 22, 2010 ‘Momentum and
perception are the big intangibles of the investing universe. Nobody
knows exactly when the investing masses' mojo will turn on or off, overheat or
over correct.Valuations, similar to gravity, are the big equalizer. In a world
of uncertainty, valuations are the one thing you can rely on. Getting
valuations right is one thing, figuring out when valuations will exercise their
gravitational pull on stocks (NYSEArca: VTI
- News)
is another.
Using Valuations as a Guide
When planning a
trip from point A to B, you need to know where A and B are. If you don't know
your destination, you will most likely end up some place you don't want to
be. Failing to prepare is preparing to fail.Fair valuations are the final
investment destination. If you invest in an undervalued market or stock and
have the patience to let the market do its magic, your investment will be
profitable 9 out of 10 times.If you invest in an overvalued market and don't
get out in time, odds are that your journey will end in tears.
Asking the 'Valuation Guru'
Charles Dow, the
founder of the Wall Street Journal and inventor of the Dow Jones Averages was
an astute student of valuations. According to Mr. Dow, a correct understanding
of valuations is the single most important ingredient to investment success. If
Mr. Dow was still alive, what would he say about today's market? Would he tell
you to buy or sell?Let's examine the most basic and probably purest measure of
value: Dividend yields.Unlike P/E ratios, dividend yields can't be fudged and
massaged. Companies with a healthy cash flow use their financial prowess to
attract and retain buy-and hold type investors with juicy dividend checks.The
dividend yield is expressed as a percentage of the stock price and can rise for
two reasons: 1) stock price drops or 2) dividend payment increases. As a rule
of thumb, the higher dividend yields, the healthier valuations.
Dividend Yield - Buy High, Sell Low
It's human nature
to want what you can't get. Current yields are low, but everybody wants income,
so investors are willing to risk the return of their money for return on their
money. Current yields are close to an all-time low, so it's fair to
assume that stocks are overvalued.The opposite was true in the first quarter of
2009. A variety of ETFs yielded close to or even more than 10%. The Financial
Select Sector SPDRs (NYSEArca: XLF - News)
and Vanguard Financial ETF (NYSEArca: VFH
- News)
paid more than 7%.Dividend ETFs like the iShares DJ Select Dividend (NYSEArca: DVY
- News)
and SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (NYSEArca: SDY
- News)
had yields north of 6%, and even plain value ETFs like Vanguard Value
(NYSEArca: VTV - News)
and iShares Russell 1000 Value (NYSEArca: IWD
- News)
paid more than 4%.The problem at that time was that nobody was interested in
yield. Investors shunned stocks and yields like cats shun water. Within a week
of prices bottoming and stocks beginning to rally, the ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter recommended to load up on dividend-rich ETFs.Here's the newsletter's
March 2, 2009 recommendation: 'This counter trend rally will have to be broad
and powerful in order to relieve investor's pent-up urge to buy. Dividend ETFs
with a higher allocation to financials are likely to rise higher than the broad
market. Some of the dividend yields are quite juicy and can help to offset
timing mistakes.'
Beware of the Yields
Trap
Since then, the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) has risen as much as 84%,
the performance for the Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) has
been similar. What about dividend yields?If the March 2009 lows marked a true
market bottom, dividend payments should have increased somewhat proportionally
to stock prices. They didn't. In fact, yields today are lower than they were at
the March 2009 bottom.In March 2009 the dividend yield for S&P 500
constituents was 3.6%. By multiplying 3.6% with the March 2009 low of 666 we
arrive at a dividend yield of 23.98 points. In October 2010, the S&P
yielded 1.97%. Based on an S&P at 1,200 points, this represented 23.64
points, 0.34 points less than at the March 2009 bottom.Hunting after yield
without considering the risk at current prices is similar to maxing out your
credit cards just to rack up frequent flier miles. The return comes at a
(long-term) cost.
Beware of the Earnings TrapIn my humble opinion, earnings are more
than just a trap, they are a minefield. According to the numbers we are fed,
earnings have already surpassed the threshold reached at the peak of the
dot-com bubble and are projected to eclipse even the 2007 all-time record high
in 2011.If this doesn't strike you as odd, take a moment to examine the chart
below. Leading up to the 2007 stock market and earnings high, we had consistent
GDP growth (not historically great but steady). The real unemployment rate
(U-6, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics) was 8.4%.[chart]Today, GDP
is sputtering (and inflated by government subsidies) and U-6 unemployment has
more than doubled to 17%. For those who prefer to go by the media's more
palatable U-3 jobless number, it has soared from below 4.7% to 9.6%. Does that
look like the kind of environment that would produce record high earnings?I
don't think it would be presumptuous to wonder if financial engineering and
massaging the books has something to do with high earnings. Remember the 157
rule change which allows banks (NYSEArca: KBE
- News)
to hide real estate losses (see June 2010 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter for a
detailed analysis).Even when assuming that current earnings are for real, the
P/E ratio (high earnings translate into a lower P/E ratio) is still
historically elevated. Admittedly not as much out of line as a year ago, but
still high.
Don't Bet Against
Valuations
Buying into an overvalued market and expecting a long-term gain,
is like sowing seed in the winter and expecting to reap in the summer - it
doesn't work that way.Of course, over the short-term, markets can defy
valuations and make disciplined investors look like temporary fools. But, as
the 2000 and 2008 declines have shown, there are no shortcuts to long-term
success.The most intriguing facet of dividend yields and P/E ratios is that
they tend to pinpoint major market bottoms. All historic market bottoms had one
thing in common: super high dividend yields and ridiculously low P/E
ratios.Based on this historic clue, the March 2009 bottom looks more like a
fake than a major bottom. Just as ice doesn't thaw unless the temperature rises
above 32 degrees, the market doesn't bottom until P/E ratios and dividend
yields signal that a valuation reset has occurred.The December issue of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
includes a detailed analysis of P/E ratios, dividend yields, and two other
benchmarks of value-based forecasting plotted against historic charts of the
S&P 500 and Dow Jones.A picture paints more than a thousand words, and the
featured chart shows how overvalued stocks are and how far they have to drop
before a sustainable new bull market can begin.’
Timid
Tuesday: Is it Safe? Davis
‘Is it safe?
Is what safe?
Is it safe?
I don’t know what you mean. I can’t tell
you something’s safe or not, unless I know specifically what you’re talking
about.
Is it safe?
Tell me what the "it" refers to.
Is it safe?
Yes, it’s safe, it’s very safe, it’s so
safe you wouldn’t believe it.
Is it safe?
No. It’s not safe, it’s… very dangerous,
be careful.
One could only wish
we could torture the MSM pundits the way the evil dentist tortured Dustin
Hoffman in Marathon Man - these guys cannot give us a straight answer and,
frankly, we’re not even sure what the question is anymore. Is it safe to buy
bonds? Is it safe to buy stocks? Is our currency safe? Are commodities safe?
All this uncertainty
is certainly boosting gold and, although I am no fan of gold speculation, we
did take a gold hedge in last Tuesday’s Alert to Members and on Wednesday our
market hedge was a 500% hedge on the Russell that goes 100% in the money right
about 730. Monday’s upside Alert play was a 1,000% payoff on FAS that’s already
all in the money – it’s a crazy market when your longs and your shorts work at
the same time!
That’s the sort of
thing that gave us the confidence to restart the "$10,000 to $50,000 by
Jan 21st" virtual portfolio as we were halfway to goal at $26,000 when we
cashed out in early October. We didn’t like the market then for directional
plays and we still don’t but now we’re taking the opportunity to practice our
short-term trading techniques in this choppy market. As you can see from David
Fry’s Nasdaq chart above, we’re in a critical zone and the chips are literally
flying every which way – our job is just to reach in and grab a few.
Yesterday we focused
on the DIA (always a favorite) $112 calls, which opened at .94 and we took 20
at the open and stopped out with a quick .10 loss ($200) just 10 minutes later
as the Dow failed to hold 11,000. We took a re-load with 30 at .75 at 11:12,
stuck out the dip to .70 and cashed back out at $1.05, for a very nice $900
gain on our second attempt. We need to average $500 a day to get to our goal by
Jan 21st, so we’re off to a fine start already!
CHART
The key to
day-trading options is paying close attention to your channels. In more certain
market conditions, we would have rode out the initial drop and doubled down at
.75 for a .80 average entry on 40 contracts but 11,000 was a key breakdown and
we couldn’t be sure the S&P 500 would hold 1,177 so it wasn’t worth taking
the chance.
CHART
As you can see from
David’s S&P chart, we did get our hold at 1,177 and between looking
stronger at the 1,180 line and our anticipation of the day’s POMO by the Fed,
we were brave enough to test our buy premise for the 2nd time. We’re also
getting used to these sell-offs into the close and we know to take the money
and run sooner, rather than later. I called an end to this trade at 3:29 in
Member Chat as we have no reason to be greedy on a 40% day’s gain.
That left us with a
bearish play on one of our high flyers and a bullish play on the Financials as
we need something to the upside, just in case but I can assure you our hearts
are not in the bull side just yet because no one can answer the question –
"Is it safe?"
That’s why we have
1,000% plays to the upside hedging 500% plays to the downside – we don’t know
what’s going to happen but we sure do think something is going to happen pretty
soon! So, we construct plays that give us great pay-offs in either direction
which enables us to use just a little bit of our sideline cash on trades that
can give us a 5x and 10x payoff. We don’t really care what the market does and,
in fact, when it does nothing – as it has been for a week – we can win on both
sides! This is what hedging is all about – striking a balance that allows us to
take advantage of opportunities in either direction or no direction at all.
There is risk, of
course, and the risk we take on these spreads is usually being forced to own
the underlying stock or ETF at a discount (see "How to Buy Stocks for a 15-20%
Discount"). This is just fine as long as you only play things you really
do want to own at the assignment price so always keep that in mind – we expect
to have the losing side put to us and we are pleasantly surprised if it isn’t
but, if it is, we are happy to be long-term owners in, for example, QID.
Speaking of QID, it
is the Nasdaq we’ll be looking to short if the Dow and the S&P 500 break
down as they certainly have the most to lose next to the Russell, who we are
already short on. We already have longer-term QID spreads, also in the 500%
range, that we were using at the top to guard against a move back to $50 on the
Qs. The Qs are always fun to play with as they have weekly options and we love
our weekly option plays! Oil is another short play on our radar but we were
hoping for a more bullish surge last night to give us a better entry than $86.
Now the dollar is back to 81.40 and oil can’t even hold $85 – pathetic!
That’s not stopping
gold as it is perceived as "safe" by millions of global investors who
are liquidating their Euros. $130Bn floated to Ireland Monday morning didn’t
even keep the EU markets up through lunch-time as they dropped about 2% on the
day, closing at the lows. This morning, after gapping up (bouncing) half a
point at the open, the EU markets are now down about half a point during lunch.
As Martin Weiss points out:
The authorities had hoped that Irish
bond yields would come down sharply, helping to avert a disastrous, additional
interest burden for the government. Instead, bond investors have dumped Irish
bonds with both hands, driving their prices down and yields up. Exactly seven
days ago, on the morning after the big bailout announcement, the yield on
Ireland’s benchmark 10-year government bond was near 8 percent. Now, it has
surged by more than a full percentage point to 9.17 percent. That extra
interest cost alone threatens to eat up a big chunk of the bailout money.
That doesn’t sound
"safe" at all, does it? As I said to Members in my Weekend Post,
where we examined the Dollar chart – "I’m not a TA guy, but dollar bears
should be very concerned if we break up here as conditions are ripe for a big
run." At the height of the last Greek debt crisis — on February 8, 2010,
to be exact — the cost of insuring a €10 million 5-year Greek government bond
reached a peak of €420,855. But last week, the cost on the exact same
instrument had surged above €1,000,000! Who is going to keep their money in
Europe under those conditions? Notorious bond pimp, Mohamed El Erian was on
CNBC this morning, calling for action before his investments turn sour! Europe
isn’t "safe", California isn’t "safe", giving money to
Timmy certainly isn’t "safe" and borderlines irrational. Asia may not
be "safe" either so where is a man with $1Tn under management
supposed to go? I’ll be the first one to chip in to send El Erian and Bill
Gross to another planet so they can wreck their economies for a change – who’s
with me?
Of course the boys
from Pimpco are already trapped in their own little hell with pretty much every
nation on Earth defaulting on debt. What, you say? Who is defaulting on debt?
Pretty much everybody says I and so says the Market Oracle, who have a nice
article with "eight-by-ten colour glossy photographs with circles and
arrows and a paragraph on the back of each one explaining what each one was to
be used as evidence" that makes the very good point that inflation,
quantitative easing or whatever you want to call it is simply a default on debt
only it’s the kind of default where you pretend to pay back the debt but you
pay it back with worthless bits of paper that in no way, shape or form
resembles the value of the paper you were lent. That’s default folks!
How is it better to
have a global policy of "extend and pretend" that amounts to nothing
more than a multi-trillion Dollar massive default against bondholders (as their
debts get canceled for monopoly money) than to just honestly restructure global
debt so we can all see where we actually stand and reorganize (because that’s
what bankruptcies are supposed to help us do) in order to move forward more
responsibly in the future. It is not "safe" to pretend that the
global markets are functioning correctly and to keep taking new investors
capital in this global Ponzi scheme that is, in fact, collapsing right now!
What’s beginning to
unravel, even in this "brilliant" scheme is that investors are
starting to wise up and are reluctant to put more money into money-printing
nations like the US, the EU and Japan. Even China had a failed bond auction
last week and Spain is having them weekly with the last auction not filling at
5% and we’re already up to 5.25 with 5.5% likely on the next offering. At 6%,
the wheels begin to come off the El Autobus and then all bets will be off in
the EU.
The US has
"solved" the problem of waning interest in our TBills by selling them
to the Fed and I encourage anyone who has debts to try this at home. Simply
take out your checkbook and give your spouse some deposit slips. Let them go
upstairs so you don’t feel like it’s all being done in the same room. Then have
your spouse put down whatever number you need as a deposit, which you can then
immediately write checks against. If anyone wants to know where your wife got
the money – she can say – well my husband clearly made an entry in his
checkbook that we had the money and that’s the money I’m using to give him!
See, who can argue with that kind of logic?
This is how we pay
off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything
out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably
owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities.
The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative
pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of
discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn
on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no
fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of
the time.
THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘
Drudgereport: US TO
BAILOUT EU [ Riiiiight! Sounds like a plan! After all, in defacto
bankrupt america money does grow on trees … derivatively (pun intended) that is
… you know … that ever more worthless fiat paper currency … and ultimately,
existentially, philosophically, doesn’t paper come from trees … sure it does
…so, no problemo since money grows on trees.
]
BOMBSHELL: European banks took big slice of Fed aid...
Hundreds of billions of dollars...
Fed reveals global extent of its backing... ]
Funds went to stalwarts
of American industry including GE and Caterpillar and household-name companies
such as Verizon, new data show.
GEORGIA:
HUNDREDS LINE UP IN COLD FOR HEAT HELP...
Assistance
Funds Quickly Depleted...
'Almost
like being in soup line during great depression'...
VIDEO...
DELAYING
TAX VOTE COULD 'CRASH STOCK MARKET' STARTING 12/15 [ Come on! There’s no
way to justify the tax cut to the top 1% including the frauds on wall street …
their threats don’t hunt no more … the nation’s defacto bankrupt … see Davis,
supra! ]
Nation's
'2nd Most Dangerous City' (camden, new jersey) To Lay Off Nearly Half Of Police
Force...
UPDATE:
Latest WIKILEAKS developments...
Foreign
contractors hired Afghan 'dancing boys'...
Embassy
cables portray Karzai as corrupt, erratic...
CIA
drew up UN spying wishlist...
SANTA
CLAUSE: FED AID WENT TO COMPANIES, BANKS, OFFSHORE...
SECRETLY
BAILED OUT GE -- GE NEWS OUTLETS FAILED TO REVEAL IN FED COVERAGE...
MORE
SECRETS: Fed Withholds Data for $885 Billion in Loans...
RUSSIA
TO HOST '18 WORLD CUP FINALS...
Qatar
selected '22 host over USA, others...
National
Board of Review: SOCIAL NETWORK named best film... [ National
board of what? ‘Inception’ is by far and away the ‘Best Film’ across the board
and on the list! ] LIST...
BANK OF AMERICA Becoming 'Bank of Asia' as Revenue Increases 30% ...
RESET:
PUTIN CRITICIZES USA OVER WIKILEAKS … [ Putin deserves the greatest deference
in matters of global concern in light of his greater rationality; america’s
self-serving accusations are merely envy and projection / displacement (in
psychoanalytic terms) of america’s pervasively corrupt, criminal, broken system
which is a far cry in reality from defacto bankrupt america’s propaganda.]...
REWARD:
[ The payoff. Bribe complete! Next bribe scenario … ] CITI to Hire Obama's
Ex-Budget Chief Orszag...
FLASHBACK:
Rubin and friends ride NY-DC shuttle...
ZUCKERMAN:
Watching America's Decline and Fall [the moral authority of the West has dramatically
declined in the face of the financial crisis. It has revealed deep fault lines
within Western economies that have spread to the global economy. The majority of Western governments are running
fiscal deficits of 10 percent or more relative to GDP, but it is
increasingly clear that there will be no quick fixes, that big government and
fiscal deficits will not bring us back to the status quo ante. Indeed, the
tidal wave of red ink has meant that the leverage-led or
debt-led growth model is dead. Developed countries will be forced to deal with
their debt on every level, from the personal to the corporate to the sovereign.
Being able to borrow may have made people feel richer, but having to repay the
debt is certainly making them feel poorer, particularly since the unfunded
liabilities that many governments face from aging populations will have to be
paid for by a shrinking band of workers. (Ecoutez, mes amis!) Demography is destiny. As a result, there is a
burgeoning consensus that we are witnessing an inevitable rise of the East and
a decline of the West…( Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012). ) ]...
Interpol issues wanted notice for Julian Assange [ They just can’t
take the truth! ] ...
US
cuts access to files [ Think about it. Really think about it. Their policies
are in the tank, along with the nation and the rest of this world as a
consequence. Don’t those so detrimentally affected (everyone) have a right to
know? I think in light of the global frauds, contrived perpetual wars though
defacto bankruptcy of this and other nations, pervasive corruption and crime,
failed policies domestically and geo-politically while serving the very
parochial interests of the self-interested few, the answer is an unequivocal,
YES! I believe that world history will write Mr. Assange as a hero in the
truest sense. He should be given a medal; and, certainly, since mr. b*** s***
wobama undeservingly got a ‘nobel peace prize’ (what he does, not what he says,
ie., Afghanistan, etc.), who more than Julian Assange is deserving of that and
more? Cover-up / propaganda … thy name is fallen america.]...
WIKILECTURE:
'HILLARY SHOULD RESIGN' ‘…Hillary Clinton, Julian Assange said, "should
resign." Speaking over Skype from an undisclosed location on Tuesday, the
WikiLeaks founder was replying to a question by TIME managing editor Richard
Stengel over the diplomatic-cable dump that Assange's organization loosed on
the world this past weekend. Stengel had said the U.S. Secretary of State was
looking like "the fall guy" in the ensuing controversy, and had asked
whether her firing or resignation was an outcome that Assange wanted. "I
don't think it would make much of a difference either way," Assange said. "But
she should resign if it can be shown that she was responsible for ordering U.S.
diplomatic figures to engage in espionage in the United Nations, in violation
of the international covenants to which the U.S. has signed up. Yes, she should
resign over that."…’
CITY
ON EDGE: Cash-Strapped Newark, new jersey Forced To Lay Off 14% Of Police
Force... [ From decades old (1978-1985) direct
personal experience with newark, n.j., the police are the absolute last cuts
that can be afforded to be made. Indeed, while walking through Military Park (a
sliver of a “park” - more a pedestrian thoroughfare/cement walks) in newark,
new jersey on the way to the bank during lunch hour, I heard the clearly
audible screams/cries of what turned out to be an old lady on the ground with
blood streaming from her mouth. I ran toward the sound of the cries, the source
of which I could not see because there were so many people in and about this
thoroughfare so as to block any vision of the source of the cries. When I came
to the woman, on the ground, blood streaming from her mouth, I asked what
happened, to which she responded she had been hit in the mouth and knocked to
the ground, her purse stolen/put inside her shopping bag, and she pointed out
the criminal casually now walking across the main street. Nobody stopped to
help her, many having passed her by. I slammed the thug to the ground so hard
that, in light of all the blood and confusion (limbic system / adrenalin flow)
I thought I had been stabbed (the blood was from his elbows hitting the
pavement so hard - no one helped / a crowd gathered / an undercover cop
happened along). When I testified at the Grand Jury Proceeding I made sure his
threat on my life was set forth in prima facie fashion so as to maximize
the DA’s position with both felonies ( he went to prison – pled out ). The
other case I wrote about here ( This was included on my website in the
Psychology forum discussion of ‘bystander effect’ / diffusion of
responsibility. ) - Having had occasion to have run down a mugger in newark,
n.j. who apparently had followed a girl from the bank on her way to the bursar
to pay tuition, though in pretty good shape, I was astounded by how totally
exhausting such a pursuit was, how much like rubber my arms were when I traded
punches with the perpetrator, and truth be told, if I had a flashlight on my
belt, I have little doubt that I would have probably used it to subdue the
perp. The girl was not that seriously injured, did get her pocketbook and
tuition back, and the criminal went to jail. The other thing about such a
pursuit that amazed me was that no one else assisted the girl or me despite
being in a position to do so). (Other newark / new jersey and new york, n.y.
metro, viz., ie., connecticut, and of course, d.c., d.c. metro, viz., ie.,
virginia experience … corrupt federal judges as maryanne trump barry, sam
alito, shiff, matz (california), hall, underhill, dorsey, etc.. Defacto
bankrupt america’s so-called system is pervasively corrupt and broken (AP) Abolish the corrupt, costly, economically
wasteful lifetime extravagantly appointed federal courts - see RICO case http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) ]
Russia: Putin warns of arms buildup
(Washington Post) [ Drudgereport: RESET: PUTIN CRITICIZES USA
OVER WIKILEAKS … Putin deserves the
greatest deference in matters of global concern in light of his greater
rationality; america’s self-serving accusations are merely envy and projection
/ displacement (in psychoanalytic terms) of america’s pervasively corrupt,
criminal, broken system which is a far cry in reality from defacto bankrupt
america’s propaganda... ]
Amazon
stops hosting WikiLeaks Assange
hiding from Interpol Thwarting
WikiLeaks coverage Unflattering
portrait of Moscow (Washington
Post) [ Wow! Sounds like neo-nazi-zionist america … you know, burn all those
non-flattering sources of information / reality. The real clue here was the
source of speech suppression / oppression; viz., that corrupt, incompetent,
zionist ‘being there’ zelig of man, lieberman, et als. Interpol issues
wanted notice for Julian Assange [ They just can’t take the truth! ] ... US cuts access to files [
Think about it. Really think about it. Their policies are in the tank, along
with the nation and the rest of this world as a consequence. Don’t those so
detrimentally affected (everyone) have a right to know? I think in light of the
global frauds, contrived perpetual wars though defacto bankruptcy of this and
other nations, pervasive corruption and crime, failed policies domestically and
geo-politically while serving the very parochial interests of the
self-interested few, the answer is an unequivocal, YES! I believe that world
history will write Mr. Assange as a hero in the truest sense. He should be
given a medal; and, certainly, since mr. b*** s*** wobama undeservingly got a
‘nobel peace prize’ (what he does, not what he says, ie., Afghanistan, etc.),
who more than Julian Assange is deserving of that and more? Cover-up /
propaganda … thy name is fallen america.]... ]
Fed
aid in crisis went beyond U.S. banks (Washington Post) [ Drudgereport: US TO BAILOUT EU [ Riiiiight! Sounds like a plan!
After all, in defacto bankrupt america money does grow on trees … derivatively
(pun intended) that is … you know … that ever more worthless fiat paper
currency … and ultimately, existentially, philosophically, doesn’t paper come
from trees … sure it does …so, no problemo since money grows on trees. ]
BOMBSHELL: European
banks took big slice of Fed aid...
Hundreds of
billions of dollars...
Fed reveals global
extent of its backing... ]
Funds went to stalwarts
of American industry including GE and Caterpillar and household-name companies
such as Verizon, new data show.
BANK OF AMERICA Becoming 'Bank of Asia' as Revenue Increases 30% ...
RESET:
PUTIN CRITICIZES USA OVER WIKILEAKS … [ Putin deserves the greatest deference
in matters of global concern in light of his greater rationality; america’s
self-serving accusations are merely envy and projection / displacement (in
psychoanalytic terms) of america’s pervasively corrupt, criminal, broken system
which is a far cry in reality from defacto bankrupt america’s propaganda.]...
REWARD:
[ The payoff. Bribe complete! Next bribe scenario … ] CITI to Hire Obama's
Ex-Budget Chief Orszag...
FLASHBACK:
Rubin and friends ride NY-DC shuttle...
ZUCKERMAN:
Watching America's Decline and Fall [the moral authority of the West has dramatically
declined in the face of the financial crisis. It has revealed deep fault lines
within Western economies that have spread to the global economy. The majority of Western governments are running
fiscal deficits of 10 percent or more relative to GDP, but it is
increasingly clear that there will be no quick fixes, that big government and
fiscal deficits will not bring us back to the status quo ante. Indeed, the
tidal wave of red ink has meant that the leverage-led or
debt-led growth model is dead. Developed countries will be forced to deal with
their debt on every level, from the personal to the corporate to the sovereign.
Being able to borrow may have made people feel richer, but having to repay the
debt is certainly making them feel poorer, particularly since the unfunded
liabilities that many governments face from aging populations will have to be
paid for by a shrinking band of workers. (Ecoutez, mes amis!) Demography is destiny. As a result, there is a
burgeoning consensus that we are witnessing an inevitable rise of the East and
a decline of the West…( Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012). ) ]...
Interpol issues wanted notice for Julian Assange [ They just can’t
take the truth! ] ...
US
cuts access to files [ Think about it. Really think about it. Their policies
are in the tank, along with the nation and the rest of this world as a
consequence. Don’t those so detrimentally affected (everyone) have a right to
know? I think in light of the global frauds, contrived perpetual wars though
defacto bankruptcy of this and other nations, pervasive corruption and crime,
failed policies domestically and geo-politically while serving the very
parochial interests of the self-interested few, the answer is an unequivocal,
YES! I believe that world history will write Mr. Assange as a hero in the
truest sense. He should be given a medal; and, certainly, since mr. b*** s***
wobama undeservingly got a ‘nobel peace prize’ (what he does, not what he says,
ie., Afghanistan, etc.), who more than Julian Assange is deserving of that and
more? Cover-up / propaganda … thy name is fallen america.]...
WIKILECTURE:
'HILLARY SHOULD RESIGN' ‘…Hillary Clinton, Julian Assange said, "should
resign." Speaking over Skype from an undisclosed location on Tuesday, the
WikiLeaks founder was replying to a question by TIME managing editor Richard
Stengel over the diplomatic-cable dump that Assange's organization loosed on
the world this past weekend. Stengel had said the U.S. Secretary of State was
looking like "the fall guy" in the ensuing controversy, and had asked
whether her firing or resignation was an outcome that Assange wanted. "I don't
think it would make much of a difference either way," Assange said.
"But she should resign if it can be shown that she was responsible for
ordering U.S. diplomatic figures to engage in espionage in the United Nations,
in violation of the international covenants to which the U.S. has signed up.
Yes, she should resign over that."…’
CITY
ON EDGE: Cash-Strapped Newark, new jersey Forced To Lay Off 14% Of Police
Force... [ From decades old (1978-1985) direct
personal experience with newark, n.j., the police are the absolute last cuts
that can be afforded to be made. Indeed, while walking through Military Park (a
sliver of a “park” - more a pedestrian thoroughfare/cement walks) in newark,
new jersey on the way to the bank during lunch hour, I heard the clearly
audible screams/cries of what turned out to be an old lady on the ground with
blood streaming from her mouth. I ran toward the sound of the cries, the source
of which I could not see because there were so many people in and about this
thoroughfare so as to block any vision of the source of the cries. When I came
to the woman, on the ground, blood streaming from her mouth, I asked what
happened, to which she responded she had been hit in the mouth and knocked to
the ground, her purse stolen/put inside her shopping bag, and she pointed out
the criminal casually now walking across the main street. Nobody stopped to
help her, many having passed her by. I slammed the thug to the ground so hard
that, in light of all the blood and confusion (limbic system / adrenalin flow)
I thought I had been stabbed (the blood was from his elbows hitting the
pavement so hard - no one helped / a crowd gathered / an undercover cop
happened along). When I testified at the Grand Jury Proceeding I made sure his
threat on my life was set forth in prima facie fashion so as to maximize
the DA’s position with both felonies ( he went to prison – pled out ). The
other case I wrote about here ( This was included on my website in the
Psychology discussion of ‘bystander effect’ / diffusion of responsibility. ) -
Having had occasion to have run down a mugger in newark, n.j. who apparent had
followed a girl from the bank on her way to the bursar to pay tuition, though
in pretty good shape, I was astounded by how totally exhausting such a pursuit
was, how much like rubber my arms were when I traded punches with the
perpetrator, and truth be told, if I had a flashlight on my belt, I have little
doubt that I would have probably used it to subdue the perp. The girl was not
that seriously injured, did get her pocketbook and tuition back, and
the criminal went to jail. The other thing about such a pursuit that
amazed me was that no one else assisted the girl or me despite being in a
position to do so). (Other newark / new jersey and new york, n.y. metro, viz.,
ie., connecticut, and of course, d.c., d.c. metro, viz., ie., virginia
experience … corrupt federal judges as maryanne trump barry, sam alito, shiff,
matz (california), hall, underhill, dorsey, etc.. Defacto bankrupt america’s
so-called system is pervasively corrupt and broken (AP) Abolish the corrupt, costly, economically
wasteful lifetime extravagantly appointed federal courts - see RICO case http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) ]
EU-US Back-Scratching Society: Dave's Daily – ‘The worries over eurozone
troubles were absent Wednesday as it was assumed the U.S. would back any rescue of
troubled sovereign debt issues. This was well-hyped but then later denied
by the Treasury. No matter, bulls were not about to be slowed by
inconvenient facts shifting instead to better economic data. As the Fed Beige
Book reported modest economic growth was continuing and the ADP Jobs Report
showed 93K job growth in the services sector. Also Labor Productivity rose 2.3%
but ISM factory index was lower. Oh, and just in case you missed it, there was
another round of POMO
Wednesday to keep markets and FOFs (Friends of the Fed) well-lubed. In this
operation, many of the bonds purchased from the Primary Dealers were from the
auction last week so the shell game continues. Further, how much more can the
Fed print to shore up the EU? We had four days of stock market declines and had
gotten short-term oversold so a bounce wasn't surprising. Let's not forget this
is the best month of the year and those daring to be short were squeezed.
Finally, let's remember what bullish month and season we're in now. Volume was
higher than previous market melt-ups and breadth was quite positive but not
quite a 90/10 day by current data.’
Private
employers add jobs, manufacturing grows (Reuters)
[ Come on! That ‘jersey-based
adp thing’? That ‘better than expected thing’?
Then there’s ‘the Institute for Supply Management said its index of
national factory activity dipped to 56.6 last month from 56.9 in October’ which
is bad but what the heck, this is a good month for stocks, that’s what they
say, you know, Santa Claus rallies, etc., and you believe in Santa Claus …
riiiiight!’ How can anyone believe anything they say? ] ‘…Even though
economists cheered the job gains, they noted the labor market still has a long
way to go. Friday's jobs report is forecast to show the U.S. unemployment rate
remained at 9.6 percent in November. Also, the number of planned layoffs in
November by U.S. employers rose to the highest since March, according to a
report by consultants Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. Employers
announced 48,711 planned job cuts last month, up 28 percent from 37,986 in October,
with the government and nonprofit sector leading the rise, the report showed. A
government report showing construction spending posted a 0.7 percent gain in
October provided a more upbeat view of the economy. Expectations had been for a
0.4 percent decline in spending, a Reuters poll showed…’
New
Home Sales Fell 8.1% in October Suttmeier ‘For the 10-Year yield my annual
value level is 2.999 with a annual pivot at 2.813, and quarterly and semiannual
risky levels at 2.265 and 2.249. Gold remains above its 50-day simple moving
average at $1345.8. My quarterly value level is $1306.4 with weekly risky level
at $1401.6. Crude oil is just above my semiannual pivot at $83.94 with this
week’s risky level at $84.89. The euro is below my quarterly pivot at 1.3318
and its 200-day simple moving average at 1.3129 on Monday. The Dow is below its
50-day at 11,062, which indicates risk to my semiannual and annual pivots at
10,558 and 10,379. My annual and semiannual pivots are 11,235 and 11,296. New
Home Sales declined in October along with home prices.
10-Year Note – (2.826) My annual value level is 2.999 with daily, annual
and weekly pivots at 2.855, 2.813 and 2.816, and monthly, quarterly and
semiannual risky levels at 2.380, 2.265 and 2.249.
Click [chart] Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Comex Gold – ($1366.3) Quarterly, semiannual and annual value
levels are $1306.4, $1260.8, $1218.7 and $1115.2 with my monthly pivot at
$1373.0, and daily and weekly risky levels at $1381.7 and $1401.6. Watch
the 50-day simple moving average at $1345.8.
[chart] Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Nymex Crude
Oil – ($85.74) Monthly and annual
value levels are $78.51 and $77.05 with semiannual, daily and weekly pivots at
$83.94, $84.01 and $84.89, and semiannual and annual risky levels at $96.53 and
$97.29.
[chart] Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
The Euro – (1.3119) My monthly value level is 1.2709 with daily
and quarterly pivots at 1.3321 and 1.3318, and weekly and semiannual risky
levels at 1.3688 and 1.4733. The euro is below its 200-day simple moving
average at 1.3129.
[chart] Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Daily Dow: (11,052) Monthly, semiannual, annual and quarterly
value levels are 10,848, 10,558, 10,379 and 8,523 with daily, annual,
semiannual, and weekly risky levels at 11,197, 11,235, 11,296, and 11,469. The
Dow is below its 50-day simple moving average at 11,063.
[chart] Courtesy of
Thomson / Reuters
New Home Sales
Fell 8.1% in October - According to
the Commerce Department New Home Sales fell 8.1% in October to a 283,000 annual
rate, and sales are down 28.5% year over year. This report came out before
Thanksgiving last week and followed a weaker than expected reading for Existing
Home Sales.Home builders have slowed the pace of building as banks are stingy
with regard to construction loans. There are only 202,000 new homes available
for sale, the lowest since June 1968.New homes are under downward price
pressures with the median price dropping a record 13.9% in October to the
lowest level since October 2003. The price decline was 9.4% year over year.’
Street
Renews Slump After Case-Shiller Shows Home Prices Slip Schaefer ‘…. The housing market's woes
returned to center stage with the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, which
showed declines are accelerating in the largest U.S. cities. On a
year-over-year basis, the index's 20-city gauge inched up 0.6% from a year ago
in September, but the figure was down 0.7% from the month prior as 18 of the 20
cities saw declines. Prices were rising through July, buoyed by the
government's home buyer tax credits, but have swooned in more recent months
after the credits expired and could continue their slide into 2011 given the
record number foreclosures that may further depress prices …’
Are Stocks Cheap? [
Reality’s short anwer: NO! NO! NO! ] , On Tuesday November 30, 2010 Are
Stocks Over Loved and Over Valued? [ Is the Pope Catholic? Do bears s***
in the woods? … Reality’s short answer: YES! YES! YES! ]
, On Monday
November 22, 2010 ‘Momentum and
perception are the big intangibles of the investing universe. Nobody
knows exactly when the investing masses' mojo will turn on or off, overheat or
over correct.Valuations, similar to gravity, are the big equalizer. In a world
of uncertainty, valuations are the one thing you can rely on. Getting
valuations right is one thing, figuring out when valuations will exercise their
gravitational pull on stocks (NYSEArca: VTI
- News)
is another.
Using Valuations as a Guide
When planning a
trip from point A to B, you need to know where A and B are. If you don't know
your destination, you will most likely end up some place you don't want to
be. Failing to prepare is preparing to fail.Fair valuations are the final
investment destination. If you invest in an undervalued market or stock and
have the patience to let the market do its magic, your investment will be
profitable 9 out of 10 times.If you invest in an overvalued market and don't
get out in time, odds are that your journey will end in tears.
Asking the 'Valuation Guru'
Charles Dow, the
founder of the Wall Street Journal and inventor of the Dow Jones Averages was
an astute student of valuations. According to Mr. Dow, a correct understanding
of valuations is the single most important ingredient to investment success. If
Mr. Dow was still alive, what would he say about today's market? Would he tell
you to buy or sell?Let's examine the most basic and probably purest measure of
value: Dividend yields.Unlike P/E ratios, dividend yields can't be fudged and
massaged. Companies with a healthy cash flow use their financial prowess to
attract and retain buy-and hold type investors with juicy dividend checks.The
dividend yield is expressed as a percentage of the stock price and can rise for
two reasons: 1) stock price drops or 2) dividend payment increases. As a rule
of thumb, the higher dividend yields, the healthier valuations.
Dividend Yield - Buy High, Sell Low
It's human nature
to want what you can't get. Current yields are low, but everybody wants income,
so investors are willing to risk the return of their money for return on their
money. Current yields are close to an all-time low, so it's fair to
assume that stocks are overvalued.The opposite was true in the first quarter of
2009. A variety of ETFs yielded close to or even more than 10%. The Financial
Select Sector SPDRs (NYSEArca: XLF - News)
and Vanguard Financial ETF (NYSEArca: VFH
- News)
paid more than 7%.Dividend ETFs like the iShares DJ Select Dividend (NYSEArca: DVY
- News)
and SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (NYSEArca: SDY
- News)
had yields north of 6%, and even plain value ETFs like Vanguard Value
(NYSEArca: VTV - News)
and iShares Russell 1000 Value (NYSEArca: IWD
- News)
paid more than 4%.The problem at that time was that nobody was interested in
yield. Investors shunned stocks and yields like cats shun water. Within a week
of prices bottoming and stocks beginning to rally, the ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter recommended to load up on dividend-rich ETFs.Here's the newsletter's
March 2, 2009 recommendation: 'This counter trend rally will have to be broad
and powerful in order to relieve investor's pent-up urge to buy. Dividend ETFs
with a higher allocation to financials are likely to rise higher than the broad
market. Some of the dividend yields are quite juicy and can help to offset
timing mistakes.'
Beware of the Yields
Trap
Since then, the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) has risen as much as 84%,
the performance for the Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) has
been similar. What about dividend yields?If the March 2009 lows marked a true
market bottom, dividend payments should have increased somewhat proportionally
to stock prices. They didn't. In fact, yields today are lower than they were at
the March 2009 bottom.In March 2009 the dividend yield for S&P 500
constituents was 3.6%. By multiplying 3.6% with the March 2009 low of 666 we
arrive at a dividend yield of 23.98 points. In October 2010, the S&P
yielded 1.97%. Based on an S&P at 1,200 points, this represented 23.64
points, 0.34 points less than at the March 2009 bottom.Hunting after yield
without considering the risk at current prices is similar to maxing out your
credit cards just to rack up frequent flier miles. The return comes at a
(long-term) cost.
Beware of the Earnings TrapIn my humble opinion, earnings are more
than just a trap, they are a minefield. According to the numbers we are fed,
earnings have already surpassed the threshold reached at the peak of the
dot-com bubble and are projected to eclipse even the 2007 all-time record high
in 2011.If this doesn't strike you as odd, take a moment to examine the chart
below. Leading up to the 2007 stock market and earnings high, we had consistent
GDP growth (not historically great but steady). The real unemployment rate
(U-6, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics) was 8.4%.[chart]Today, GDP
is sputtering (and inflated by government subsidies) and U-6 unemployment has
more than doubled to 17%. For those who prefer to go by the media's more palatable
U-3 jobless number, it has soared from below 4.7% to 9.6%. Does that look like
the kind of environment that would produce record high earnings?I don't think
it would be presumptuous to wonder if financial engineering and massaging the
books has something to do with high earnings. Remember the 157 rule change
which allows banks (NYSEArca: KBE - News)
to hide real estate losses (see June 2010 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter for a
detailed analysis).Even when assuming that current earnings are for real, the
P/E ratio (high earnings translate into a lower P/E ratio) is still
historically elevated. Admittedly not as much out of line as a year ago, but still
high.
Don't Bet Against
Valuations
Buying into an overvalued market and expecting a long-term gain,
is like sowing seed in the winter and expecting to reap in the summer - it
doesn't work that way.Of course, over the short-term, markets can defy valuations
and make disciplined investors look like temporary fools. But, as the 2000 and
2008 declines have shown, there are no shortcuts to long-term success.The most
intriguing facet of dividend yields and P/E ratios is that they tend to
pinpoint major market bottoms. All historic market bottoms had one thing in
common: super high dividend yields and ridiculously low P/E ratios.Based on
this historic clue, the March 2009 bottom looks more like a fake than a major
bottom. Just as ice doesn't thaw unless the temperature rises above 32 degrees,
the market doesn't bottom until P/E ratios and dividend yields signal that a
valuation reset has occurred.The December issue of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
includes a detailed analysis of P/E ratios, dividend yields, and two other
benchmarks of value-based forecasting plotted against historic charts of the
S&P 500 and Dow Jones.A picture paints more than a thousand words, and the
featured chart shows how overvalued stocks are and how far they have to drop
before a sustainable new bull market can begin.’
John
Hussman's Index: Stocks Are 13% Overvalued John Hussman, manager of Hussman Strategy Growth Fund
(HSGFX), proposed price to peak 10 year average earnings as a long term stock
market valuation metric. Compared with the normal one year price to earning
ratio, Price to Peak Earnings would eliminate short term noise. This is similar
to Shiller's ‘Cyclically Adjusted Price Earning’
ratio (CAPE10) and Warren Buffett’s stock market
GNP/GDP metric.In his weekly commentary on Dec 5, 2005, titled as 'Earnings Revert to the Mean,
Stocks Will Struggle', he proposed a simplistic method: "buy
when Price to Peak Earnings is lower than 15 and sell when it exceeds
19.5". John Hussman has been using this as the valuation yardstick to
manage the Hussman Strategic Growth Fund HSGFX.A model portfolio called P Hussman Peak PE Market Timing
Strategy Buy 15 Sell 19.5 Weekly is also maintained to live monitor
the strategy suggested in 'Earnings Revert to the Mean,
Stocks Will Struggle'. click [chart] On Nov
19, 2010, the ratio of Real Price to the average of last 10 year Peak Real
Earnings (13.44) to its long term average (11.93) is 1.13. The US stock market is 13%
overvalued. We will be tracking this number biweekly.
WikiLeaks founder could be charged under
Espionage Act (Washington Post) [
Drudgereport: Interpol issues
wanted notice for Julian Assange [ They just can’t take the truth! ] ...
US cuts access to files [
Think about it. Really think about it. Their policies are in the tank, along with
the nation and the rest of this world as a consequence. Don’t those so
detrimentally affected (everyone) have a right to know? I think in light of the
global frauds, contrived perpetual wars though defacto bankruptcy of this and
other nations, pervasive corruption and crime, failed policies domestically and
geo-politically while serving the very parochial interests of the
self-interested few, the answer is an unequivocal, YES! I believe that world
history will write Mr. Assange as a hero in the truest sense. He should be
given a medal; and, certainly, since mr. b*** s*** wobama undeservingly got a
‘nobel peace prize’ (what he does, not what he says, ie., Afghanistan, etc.),
who more than Julian Assange is deserving of that and more? Cover-up / propaganda
… thy name is fallen america.]...
WIKILECTURE: 'HILLARY SHOULD
RESIGN' ‘…Hillary Clinton, Julian Assange said, "should resign."
Speaking over Skype from an undisclosed location on Tuesday, the WikiLeaks
founder was replying to a question by TIME managing editor Richard Stengel over
the diplomatic-cable dump that Assange's organization loosed on the world this
past weekend. Stengel had said the U.S. Secretary of State was looking like
"the fall guy" in the ensuing controversy, and had asked whether her
firing or resignation was an outcome that Assange wanted. "I don't think
it would make much of a difference either way," Assange said. "But
she should resign if it can be shown that she was responsible for ordering U.S.
diplomatic figures to engage in espionage in the United Nations, in violation
of the international covenants to which the U.S. has signed up. Yes, she should
resign over that."…’
CITY ON EDGE: Cash-Strapped
Newark, new jersey Forced To Lay Off 14% Of Police Force... [ From decades old
(1978-1985) direct personal experience with newark, n.j., the police are the absolute
last cuts that can be afforded to be made. Indeed, while walking through
Military Park (a sliver of a “park” - more a pedestrian thoroughfare/cement
walks) in newark, new jersey on the way to the bank during lunch hour, I heard
the clearly audible screams/cries of what turned out to be an old lady on the
ground with blood streaming from her mouth. I ran toward the sound of the
cries, the source of which I could not see because there were so many people in
and about this thoroughfare so as to block any vision of the source of the
cries. When I came to the woman, on the ground, blood streaming from her mouth,
I asked what happened, to which she responded she had been hit in the mouth and
knocked to the ground, her purse stolen/put inside her shopping bag, and she
pointed out the criminal casually now walking across the main street. Nobody
stopped to help her, many having passed her by. I slammed the thug to the
ground so hard that, in light of all the blood and confusion (limbic system /
adrenalin flow) I thought I had been stabbed (the blood was from his elbows
hitting the pavement so hard - no one helped / a crowd gathered / an undercover
cop happened along). When I testified at the Grand Jury Proceeding I made sure
his threat on my life was set forth in prima facie fashion so as to
maximize the DA’s position with both felonies ( he went to prison – pled out ).
The other case I wrote about here ( This was included on my website in the
Psychology discussion of ‘bystander effect’ / diffusion of responsibility. ) -
Having had occasion to have run down a mugger in newark, n.j. who apparently
had followed a girl from the bank on her way to the bursar to pay tuition,
though in pretty good shape, I was astounded by how totally exhausting such a
pursuit was, how much like rubber my arms were when I traded punches with the
perpetrator, and truth be told, if I had a flashlight on my belt, I have little
doubt that I would have probably used it to subdue the perp. The girl was not
that seriously injured, did get her pocketbook and tuition back, and
the criminal went to jail. The other thing about such a pursuit that
amazed me was that no one else assisted the girl or me despite being in a
position to do so). (Other newark / new jersey and new york, n.y. metro, viz.,
ie., connecticut, and of course, d.c., d.c. metro, viz., ie., virginia
experience … corrupt federal judges as maryanne trump barry, sam alito, shiff,
matz (california), hall, underhill, dorsey, etc.. Defacto bankrupt america’s
so-called system is pervasively corrupt and broken (AP) Abolish the corrupt, costly, economically
wasteful lifetime extravagantly appointed federal courts - see RICO case http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) ]
]
Federal
Diary Deficit
panel eyes federal pay (Washington Post) [ ‘critical challenges being
shouldered by federal workers’ ? … PLEASE! Shoulder them no more … haven’t they
done enough damage already … cease and desist … do not pass go … do not collect
$200,000+ (with benefits), abolish lifetime appointments, etc., prosecute the
frauds on wall street including jail, fines, and disgorgement, etc.. Fire them! The exception is law enforcement
only, along with what’s strictly necessary and directly tied to prosecutions. ]
After
meeting, hope for cuts deal (Washington Post) [ Is this some parallel universe they’re
operating in? Davis weighs in with reality (and see infra) ‘ …
This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply
happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global
GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of
unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is
to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn
worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to
spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year).
There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the
people all of the time. THIS
HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! … ‘ ]
President Obama and congressional Republicans expressed determination Tuesday
to reach an agreement on the tax cuts due to expire at year's end
New
Home Sales Fell 8.1% in October Suttmeier ‘For the 10-Year yield my annual
value level is 2.999 with a annual pivot at 2.813, and quarterly and semiannual
risky levels at 2.265 and 2.249. Gold remains above its 50-day simple moving average
at $1345.8. My quarterly value level is $1306.4 with weekly risky level at
$1401.6. Crude oil is just above my semiannual pivot at $83.94 with this week’s
risky level at $84.89. The euro is below my quarterly pivot at 1.3318 and its
200-day simple moving average at 1.3129 on Monday. The Dow is below its 50-day
at 11,062, which indicates risk to my semiannual and annual pivots at 10,558
and 10,379. My annual and semiannual pivots are 11,235 and 11,296. New Home
Sales declined in October along with home prices.
10-Year Note – (2.826) My annual value level is 2.999 with daily, annual
and weekly pivots at 2.855, 2.813 and 2.816, and monthly, quarterly and
semiannual risky levels at 2.380, 2.265 and 2.249.
Click [chart] Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Comex Gold – ($1366.3) Quarterly, semiannual and annual value
levels are $1306.4, $1260.8, $1218.7 and $1115.2 with my monthly pivot at
$1373.0, and daily and weekly risky levels at $1381.7 and $1401.6. Watch
the 50-day simple moving average at $1345.8.
[chart] Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Nymex Crude
Oil – ($85.74) Monthly and annual
value levels are $78.51 and $77.05 with semiannual, daily and weekly pivots at
$83.94, $84.01 and $84.89, and semiannual and annual risky levels at $96.53 and
$97.29.
[chart] Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
The Euro – (1.3119) My monthly value level is 1.2709 with daily
and quarterly pivots at 1.3321 and 1.3318, and weekly and semiannual risky levels
at 1.3688 and 1.4733. The euro is below its 200-day simple moving average
at 1.3129.
[chart] Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Daily Dow: (11,052) Monthly, semiannual, annual and quarterly
value levels are 10,848, 10,558, 10,379 and 8,523 with daily, annual,
semiannual, and weekly risky levels at 11,197, 11,235, 11,296, and 11,469. The
Dow is below its 50-day simple moving average at 11,063.
[chart] Courtesy of
Thomson / Reuters
New Home Sales
Fell 8.1% in October - According to
the Commerce Department New Home Sales fell 8.1% in October to a 283,000 annual
rate, and sales are down 28.5% year over year. This report came out before
Thanksgiving last week and followed a weaker than expected reading for Existing
Home Sales.Home builders have slowed the pace of building as banks are stingy
with regard to construction loans. There are only 202,000 new homes available
for sale, the lowest since June 1968.New homes are under downward price
pressures with the median price dropping a record 13.9% in October to the
lowest level since October 2003. The price decline was 9.4% year over year.’
Street
Renews Slump After Case-Shiller Shows Home Prices Slip Schaefer ‘… For the second straight day,
stocks plunged into the red at the opening bell in New York Tuesday. The
housing market's woes returned to center stage with the S&P/Case-Shiller
home price index, which showed declines are accelerating in the largest U.S.
cities. On a year-over-year basis, the index's 20-city gauge inched up 0.6%
from a year ago in September, but the figure was down 0.7% from the month prior
as 18 of the 20 cities saw declines. Prices were rising through July, buoyed by
the government's home buyer tax credits, but have swooned in more recent months
after the credits expired and could continue their slide into 2011 given the
record number foreclosures that may further depress prices …’
Robots Don’t Need Us Anymore (PC World) Daw ‘ Here is your daily warning of the coming technological
singularity: Robots have begun creating themselves with no direct human
intervention. And, shockingly, it’s even weirder than it already sounds. These
robots aren’t just built independently of humans using a 3D printer; they’re designed
independently by a software algorithm that creates its own best robot for a
given task. Germany’s
Fraunhofer Institute calls its creations "genetic robots." The
algorithmic software used in the project creates several different designs and
then decides which is most fit for the task. While similar projects have
existed in the past the Fraunhofer algorithm takes into account physical laws
and environmental factors. All of this allows for unprecedented variation and
even a kind of mutation in the output of the robot designs. The chosen design
is then created on a 3D printer and sent on its merry way. At the moment the
robots are fairly simplistic little guys with ball and socket joint parts to
allow for the many variations spat out by the genetic algorithms, so the fear
of robot revolution may be a bit premature. Still, the completely independent
design and creation of robots paves the way for some pretty freaky stuff. How
long before a robot is created using this method that doesn’t just imitate
human design, it surpasses it? ‘
Drudgereport: Interpol issues wanted notice for Julian Assange [ They just can’t
take the truth! ] ...
US
cuts access to files [ Think about it. Really think about it. Their policies
are in the tank, along with the nation and the rest of this world as a
consequence. Don’t those so detrimentally affected (everyone) have a right to
know? I think in light of the global frauds, contrived perpetual wars though
defacto bankruptcy of this and other nations, pervasive corruption and crime,
failed policies domestically and geo-politically while serving the very
parochial interests of the self-interested few, the answer is an unequivocal,
YES! I believe that world history will write Mr. Assange as a hero in the
truest sense. He should be given a medal; and, certainly, since mr. b*** s***
wobama undeservingly got a ‘nobel peace prize’ (what he does, not what he says,
ie., Afghanistan, etc.), who more than Julian Assange is deserving of that and
more? Cover-up / propaganda … thy name is fallen america.]...
WIKILECTURE:
'HILLARY SHOULD RESIGN' ‘…Hillary Clinton, Julian Assange said, "should
resign." Speaking over Skype from an undisclosed location on Tuesday, the
WikiLeaks founder was replying to a question by TIME managing editor Richard
Stengel over the diplomatic-cable dump that Assange's organization loosed on
the world this past weekend. Stengel had said the U.S. Secretary of State was
looking like "the fall guy" in the ensuing controversy, and had asked
whether her firing or resignation was an outcome that Assange wanted. "I
don't think it would make much of a difference either way," Assange said.
"But she should resign if it can be shown that she was responsible for
ordering U.S. diplomatic figures to engage in espionage in the United Nations,
in violation of the international covenants to which the U.S. has signed up.
Yes, she should resign over that."…’
CITY
ON EDGE: Cash-Strapped Newark, new jersey Forced To Lay Off 14% Of Police
Force... [ From decades old (1978-1985) direct
personal experience with newark, n.j., the police are the absolute last cuts
that can be afforded to be made. Indeed, while walking through Military Park (a
sliver of a “park” - more a pedestrian thoroughfare/cement walks) in newark,
new jersey on the way to the bank during lunch hour, I heard the clearly
audible screams/cries of what turned out to be an old lady on the ground with
blood streaming from her mouth. I ran toward the sound of the cries, the source
of which I could not see because there were so many people in and about this
thoroughfare so as to block any vision of the source of the cries. When I came
to the woman, on the ground, blood streaming from her mouth, I asked what
happened, to which she responded she had been hit in the mouth and knocked to
the ground, her purse stolen/put inside her shopping bag, and she pointed out
the criminal casually now walking across the main street. Nobody stopped to
help her, many having passed her by. I slammed the thug to the ground so hard
that, in light of all the blood and confusion (limbic system / adrenalin flow)
I thought I had been stabbed (the blood was from his elbows hitting the
pavement so hard - no one helped / a crowd gathered / an undercover cop
happened along). When I testified at the Grand Jury Proceeding I made sure his
threat on my life was set forth in prima facie fashion so as to maximize
the DA’s position with both felonies ( he went to prison – pled out ). The
other case I wrote about here ( This was included on my website in the
Psychology discussion of ‘bystander effect’ / diffusion of responsibility. ) -
Having had occasion to have run down a mugger in newark, n.j. who apparent had
followed a girl from the bank on her way to the bursar to pay tuition, though in
pretty good shape, I was astounded by how totally exhausting such a pursuit
was, how much like rubber my arms were when I traded punches with the
perpetrator, and truth be told, if I had a flashlight on my belt, I have little
doubt that I would have probably used it to subdue the perp. The girl was not
that seriously injured, did get her pocketbook and tuition back, and
the criminal went to jail. The other thing about such a pursuit that
amazed me was that no one else assisted the girl or me despite being in a
position to do so). (Other newark / new jersey and new york, n.y. metro, viz.,
ie., connecticut, and of course, d.c., d.c. metro, viz., ie., virginia
experience … corrupt federal judges as maryanne trump barry, sam alito, shiff,
matz (california), hall, underhill, dorsey, etc.. Defacto bankrupt america’s
so-called system is pervasively corrupt and broken (AP) Abolish the corrupt, costly, economically
wasteful lifetime extravagantly appointed federal courts - see RICO case http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) ]
Wall
Street Is Laundering Drug Money And Getting Away With It Zach
Carter, … etc. … Drudgereport:
CLASSIFIED NO MORE: USA RACES
TO LIMIT WIKILEAKS DAMAGE [Publishing
the Wikileaks is the right thing to do; after all, one cannot possibly look to
even one rationally correct strategy, domestically, globally, geopolitically
that would justify continued hiding/cover-up of the failed strategies, their
genesis, flawed rationale, etc., which has cost this nation and the world
dearly] ...
WIKILEAKS: We've been hit
with 'mass distributed denial of service attack'...
MOST EMBARRASSING, DAMAGING
DISCLOSURE IN DECADES...
SENATORS: PROSECUTE THE
LEAKERS!
NYT
EXPLAINS: THE DECISION TO PUBLISH … [The NYT clearly did the right thing to
publish; after all, one cannot possibly look to even one rationally correct
strategy, domestically, globally, geopolitically that would justify continued
hiding/cover-up of the failed strategies, their genesis, flawed rationale,
etc., which has cost this nation and the world dearly]...
SKorea
says sound of artillery heard on island...
US,
SKorea start major naval drills...
China
issues warning...
DHS
SEIZES DOMAIN NAMES...
EU
Debt Crisis Escalates...
6
American soldiers killed in Afghanistan...
Next Debt
Crisis 'May Start in Washington'...
WIKILEAKS
TURNS ON OBAMA! … [ Like who hasn’t, and for good reason! Publishing
the Wikileaks is the right thing to do; after all, one cannot possibly look to
even one rationally correct strategy, domestically, globally, geopolitically
that would justify continued hiding/cover-up of the failed strategies, their
genesis, flawed rationale, etc., which has cost this nation and the world
dearly] ]
] Authorities are
investigating whether Julian Assange violated criminal laws, including possible
charges under the Espionage Act, sources say.
Reasons to Be Fearful About the Stock Market Norfolk ‘This is the time that tests bearish
investors. Interest rates on deposits are lower than inflation, if you look at
food and energy costs. Since the 1990s, I have been more cautious than most of
my investors and have been careful to suggest that they might like to keep
their powder dry. Some listened and switched to cash in 1998 and 1999, and so
avoided the fallout of the 2000-2003 decline.Just when I was beginning to feel
that things were getting sensibly priced, interest rates were pushed down and
the already-existing house price bubble superinflated from 2003 on, along with
much else. And then...But now there is talk of investors being
"forced" into the market by negative real returns on cash - and fears
that inflation may rise significantly. I recently
displayed a graph from the Now
and Futures site, showing how German shareholders survived the Weimar
hyperinflation of 1923, after a severe interim drop. "Financial
Armageddon" author Michael
Panzner justly pointed out that there was a danger that investors in a
similar situation might lose their nerve, sell out and miss the market
recovery.It is also very hard to stay out of the market when it has risen
dramatically. I was batting away queries from clients in the latter stages of
the tech stock boom with warnings of what I strongly suspected was a bubble
ready to burst. But there is pressure to get in, not merely because of greed
but in the case of fund managers, fear: the fear that your boss will use peer
benchmarks to judge you negatively and appoint someone else to take over the
portfolio. So you need nerve at more than one level in the organization.Invesco
Perpetual's Neil Woodford has that kind of nerve. During the dot com craze, he
stayed out and stuck to his guns despite the stellar tech-invested performances
of others' funds - and fortunately the management backed him.Woodford was very
bullish - selectively - in January this year, according to the Daily
Telegraph. So how does he feel now? Well, bearish about China this week,
according to Investment
Week. This, at a time when others are coming late to the emerging-markets
party, looking for something to get exciting returns. Surely, we tell
ourselves, someone's making money somewhere, and we want a piece. This, I
think, is the dangerous time.It's caught out geniuses before now. During the
South Sea Bubble of 1720, Sir Isaac Newton bought in, sold out and made £7000
profit - about £1 million in today's money. Then, seeing the market soaring
further, he bought in again. And the scam crashed, costing him £20,000 - the
equivalent of nearly £3 million.Some say the market now has been climbing a
"wall of worry", so that really, we're not in a mania and reasonable
concern has already been factored into valuations. Personally, I fear that this
is like a lunatic certifying his own sanity and discharging himself from the
hospital - "I'm all right now."I'm not alone in this fear. In a Financial
Sense article by Tim Wood, he says:
I continue to believe, based on the evidence at hand,
that the rally out the March 2009 low is a large scale bear market rally that
should ultimately prove to separate Phase I from Phase II of the much larger
and ongoing secular bear market. But, just as I told my subscribers before that
low was even made, the longer this rally holds up, the more dangerous it
becomes. Reason being, it becomes more and more convincing.
We have interest rates lower than ever, debts higher
than ever and a financial sector borrowing cash at giveaway rates and playing
games in the market. We now have an interdependent world economy, which is like
lashing all the lifeboats together - extra security in a small storm and
complete disaster in a big one. Granted that the situation is such that there
is no completely valid basis of comparison - and remembering that the Dow now
lists companies that garner much more from foreign earnings than they used to -
let's take a look at the Dow adjusted for CPI inflation since the peak before
last - the one in January of 1966:
Remember, too, that everyone agrees that we've just
had a recession, and many say we're not out of it. Where would you pin the tail
on this donkey? Mr. Market appears to have stuck it on the back of his neck. click
to enlarge [chart] If we are
climbing the Wall of Worry, we're starting from very high up. Don't look down…’
Microsoft
Downplays 'Nightmare' Windows Kernel Flaw [ They would
… downplay the flaw. ]A security firm claims a Windows kernel bug lets attackers
evade Windows UAC security.
Bernanke's True Intentions Revealed Simon
Maierhofer, On Monday November
29, 2010 Unintended
Consequences of Bernanke's QE2 Simon
Maierhofer, On Tuesday November 23, 2010
In the
mid-2000s, Alan Greenspan was the hero of the financial world. With his blunt
philosophy of inflation, Greenspan was credited for turning the tech-bust into
a real estate and financial boom.Following the 2008/2009 meltdown, Greenspan
morphed from hero to scapegoat (or for Thanksgiving aficionados; turkey to
feather duster). Another Turkey to Feather Duster Roundtrip?Bernanke carried on
the torch of fearless Keynesian Fed Presidents and made it on the cover of Time
magazine within his first term. Much ink has been spilled about the effects and
side effects of quantitative easing in general and QE2 in particular (click
here if you care to read my two cents worth). Actions speak louder than words,
and the initial reaction by stocks and commodities has been net-positive (at
least when going back to the initial announcement), which is exactly what the
financial alchemists in Washington wanted to see; but, what about the economy
or the unemployed? Obviously, that's only a secondary concern.According to
Bernanke (quoted in the Washington Post), inflating stock prices is the golden
grail of today's monetary policy: 'Higher stock prices will boost consumer
wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased
spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle,
will further support economic expansion.'
Perhaps it's
been lost to Mr. Bernanke that the Fed actively inflating asset prices has a
number of unfair side effects.
1) Wall Street
banksters' get to profit from their mistakes that led to the sub-prime debacle.
2) Retail
investors have been withdrawing money from mutual funds for two years. The
effect of higher stock prices is lost to many.
3) Artificially
depressing interest rates takes away wealth from savers and distributes it to
borrowers. Who are today's savers? Retirees and near-retirees. In fact, this
group accounts for more individuals (and lost spending power) than ever before.
WHAT EFFECT HAS THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S MONETARY POLICY HAD ON JOBLESS
AMERICANS? LET'S EXAMINE THE FACTS:
August 2007:
Fed lowered discount rate, unemployment rate at 4.7%
December 2008:
Fed reduced rates to just north of zero, unemployment rate at 7.4%.
March 2009: Fed
launches QE1, unemployment rate at 8.6%.
November 2010:
Fed launches QE2, unemployment rate at 9.6%.
While large cap
(NYSEArca: IVV - News), mid cap (NYSEArca: MDY - News), small cap (NYSEArca:
IWM - News), international (NYSEArca: EFA - News), emerging market stocks (NYSEArca:
EEM - News) and commodities are brewing their own Fed sponsored bubble, the
jobless are left in the dust. Would there have been anyway to help them?
Our
infrastructure (streets and bridges) is literally rotting away beneath our
tires. $600 billion (as in $600 billion QE2) would have been enough money to
employ 4 million construction workers at $75,000/year for two years.
Going this
route would provide jobs for the hardest hit sector, increase morale and social
status and distribute money to the consumer so he can do what he does best -
consume. The labor cost of such an infrastructure repair program would be far
less than $600 billion because the government wouldn't have to pay unemployment
benefits to Americans who could be employed.
The United
States' current predicament is not unique, it happened before. Not in the U.S.,
but in Japan (NYSEArca: EWJ - News). Following a late 1980s real estate bust,
Japan's Nikkei has gone nowhere but down (aside from counter trend rallies, some
massive, but nonetheless trumped by the bear market).
The chart below
illustrates Japan's pain. The April 2010 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter,
includes an in-depth analysis of the similarities between the two scenarios.
One of the few
differences is that Japan's breakdown occurred amidst a roaring global bull
market. The U.S. bear market isn't that lucky, as it parallels an escalating
European debt crisis and, therefore, should be swifter and ultimately more
pronounced.
If there's only
one sentence you take away from this article, let it be this: Things change
fast. If you wish, you may add a second: Bear markets work much faster than
bull markets.
Momentum is a
strong force. Upside momentum breeds optimism which eventually culminates at
optimistic extremes. A few days before the April decline, the ETF Profit
Strategy Newsletter noted that the: 'message conveyed by the composite
bullishness is unmistakably bearish.'
A more recent
example of bear market forces taking hold can be found in the municipal bond
market. For over two years, muni bonds have been quenching the thirst of yield
hungry investors.
On July 8, the
ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter observed: 'Predicting the location of the next
credit crisis isn't easy by virtue of the fact that there are so many darn
cracks everywhere. Nevertheless, the $2.8 trillion municipal bond market looks
especially ripe for disaster.'
On August 26 -
the very day muni bonds and 30-year Treasury Bonds (NYSEArca: TLT - News)
peaked - the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter followed up the initial red flag
with this word of advice: 'Our technical analysis along with fundamentals
suggest that T-Bonds are getting ready to roll over. A look at the overall
picture suggests that this is more than just a minor correction. The rally in
municipal, corporate and high yield bonds is showing signs of weakness too.
Investors should start exiting from those markets.'
The chart of
the iShares S&P National Muni Bond ETF (NYSEArca: MUB - News) below shows
that MUB lost nearly two years worth of gains within a matter of weeks.
Thus far, the
major indexes a la Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI), S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) and Nasdaq
(Nasdaq: ^IXIC) have largely resisted that drag. But a chain is only as strong
as its weakest link.
At its most
recent earnings disappointment, Cisco CEO Chambers disclosed that weak sales to
the government and state sector contributed to weak earnings. The government
sector accounts for 13% of spending on goods and services.
It's probably
just a matter of time until this weakness affects the tech (NYSEArca: XLK -
News), and by extension the consumer discretionary (NYSEArca: XLY - News)
sectors; especially since earnings for 2011 are expected to clock in at an
all-time high (no, that's not a typo, check Standard and Poor's earnings
estimates).
For right now,
the straws (fundamental problems) are piling up on the camel's back (stock
market), until the last straw breaks his back. My personal guess is that the
insanity will go on a bit longer, but as we've seen in 2000, 2007, 2010 and the
above MUB chart, the power of the last straw can bring the camel to its knees
in a hurry.
Unlike Wall
Street and the financial media, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter doesn't
simply ignore red flags, but tries to identify Trojan-Horse-like asset classes
before they enter and destroy your portfolio. Semi-weekly updates continually
monitor major asset classes and provide invaluable support and resistance
levels.
Come on! Suckers rally into the close to keep the
suckers suckered! Previous: Rosy numbers on consumer sentiment, unemployment
(far better than private forecasts) from the government prior to the holiday
so-called ‘shop till you drop’? How can anyone believe anything they say?
Najerian interviewed by Motek chimes in with the reason for good retail cheer;
viz., people have stopped paying their mortgages and are using the funds to
purchase retail goods; while Davidowitz adds that with record numbers of
americans on food stamps, real unemployment at 17+, and wall street giving out
record bonuses from their accomplished fraud (with no-recession b.s. bernanke
help) of $144 BILLION … the high end
stores / jewelers will do well … daaaaah! And, with insiders and wall street frauds selling
into the bubble as preceded last crash, this is an especially great opportunity
to sell / take profits! Suckers’ rally on light volume, full moon, and government
complicity (false data / reports) to keep suckers suckered (easy for the wall
street frauds to do with just a mouse click / push of the button – and, they
know all those technical trade lines that are easy to program in this current
phase of the scam/fraud with the debased dollar). Keep in mind, the totally
mindless blather from the ‘cottage industries’ of and fraudulent wall street
itself in talking up lower P/E multiples when the same is a direct result of
the debasement of the dollar and the consequent manipulation / translation (not
real, see Davis, infra) which preceded the financial crisis / last crash.
Unemployment, trade, deficit, etc., numbers continue decidedly worse than
expected along with other negative data (and in the ‘wrong direction’, that
spin accorded ‘down but not as bad as before’ b*** s*** ) yet the market has
rallied like no tomorrow with used home foreclosure / distressed sales, though
abated owing to ‘foreclosuregate’, the other ‘heralded’ good news. Moreover, the dumbo lemmings of Europe have
jumped on the fraudulent defacto bankrupt american crazy train propelled to the
precipice also as if no tomorrow. This is about keeping the suckers sucked in
with the help of a market-frothing pre-election debased dollar for favorable
currency translation and paper (but not real when measured in, ie., gold, etc.)
profits which preceded the last crisis, inflating a bubble as in the last
crisis to facilitate the churn-and-earn, particularly with computerized (and
high frequency) trades and which commissions they’ll get again on the way down.
There is nothing to support these overbought stock prices, fundamentally or
otherwise. These are desperate criminals ‘at work’. Even wall street shill, the
senile Buffett is saying we’re still in a recession (depression) [ Davis: ‘… all
profits are inflated by 10% (from falling, debased dollar) and that 10% is the
E that gets divided from the P and gives us a much better price/multiple to
hang our hats on and that gets investors to BUYBUYBUY …’ The bull market that never was / were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold ] This is a great
opportunity to sell / take profits (these lower dollar, hyperinflationary
currency manipulations / translations to froth paper stocks will end quite
badly as in last crash)! This
is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression.
The past up moves were manipulated bull (s***) cycles (at best) in a secular
bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the
prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders
commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street ‘programmed
computerized high-frequency churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as
in prior crashes ( widely reported, high-frequency trading routinely
accounts for more than 50% of daily U.S. equity trading volume and regularly
approaches 70%. )’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end
until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally
prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.The Stock Market's
Long Decline Has Begun Smith ]
National / World
Int'l groups say Israel not living up to Gaza promises
Jerusalem Post Gaza
blockade still 'crippling' BBC News
Aid groups decry blockade on Gaza Aljazeera.net Sen.
John Kerry calls for Israel to cede Golan Heights and East Jerusalem...
Drudgereport:
Assange:
Document Dump Targets 'Lying, Corrupt and Murderous Leadership'...
Ecuador
offers Assange residency...
King
Abdullah of Saudi Arabia proposed planting chips in Gitmo prisoners upon
release...
China
'ready to abandon North Korea'...
China
'scared to death' of Pelosi...
USA
RACES TO LIMIT WIKI DAMAGE [ Publishing
the wikileaks is the right thing to do; after all, one cannot possibly look to
even one rationally correct strategy, domestically, globally, geopolitically
that would justify continued hiding/cover-up of the failed strategies, their
genesis, flawed rationale, etc., which has cost this nation and the world
dearly] ...
Laughter
in Rome, Denials in Berlin...
Sen.
John Kerry calls for Israel to cede Golan Heights and East Jerusalem...
Reveal:
Iran 'smuggled arms' to Hezbollah on ambulances...
Reveal:
Hillary Clinton ordered diplomats to spy on UN leaders...
*UN
seeks answers from Washington...
What
America REALLY
thinks of world leaders...
Now
Australian police investigate Assange...
Holder
orders criminal investigation...
Pentagon:
No guarantee against another leak...
Disclosures
show secrets not safe...
Obama
'not pleased'...
CYBER
MONDAY NIGHTMARE
CLASSIFIED
NO MORE: USA RACES TO LIMIT WIKILEAKS DAMAGE
[Publishing the Wikileaks is the right thing to do; after all, one
cannot possibly look to even one rationally correct strategy, domestically,
globally, geopolitically that would justify continued hiding/cover-up of the
failed strategies, their genesis, flawed rationale, etc., which has cost this
nation and the world dearly] ...
250,000
State Dept. cables cover Iran, NKorea, Putin... MORE
Reveal:
Dangerous standoff with Pakistan...
Gitmo became game of 'Let's Make A Deal'...
US to Slovenia: Take a prisoner if you want meeting with
Obama...
Reveal:
Clinton Orders US Diplomats to Spy on Other Countries at UN...
Reveal:
Iran obtained missiles from NKorea -- capable of striking Europe...
WIKILEAKS:
We've been hit with 'mass distributed denial of service attack'...
MOST
EMBARRASSING, DAMAGING DISCLOSURE IN DECADES...
Reveal:
China conducting computer sabotage...
Saudis are chief financiers for al Qaeda...
Reveal:
Saudis repeatedly urge US attack on Iran...
SENATORS:
PROSECUTE THE LEAKERS!
NYT
EXPLAINS: THE DECISION TO PUBLISH … [The NYT clearly did the right thing to publish;
after all, one cannot possibly look to even one rationally correct strategy,
domestically, globally, geopolitically that would justify continued
hiding/cover-up of the failed strategies, their genesis, flawed rationale,
etc., which has cost this nation and the world dearly]...
SKorea
says sound of artillery heard on island...
US,
SKorea start major naval drills...
China
issues warning...
DHS
SEIZES DOMAIN NAMES...
EU
Debt Crisis Escalates...
6
American soldiers killed in Afghanistan...
Obama
announces two-year pay freeze for federal workers...
Dem
Leader Hoyer: Military should also see pay freeze...
Now
rescue threatens Germany...
100,000+
march in Dublin over budget cuts...
'Day
of Reckoning' Nears...
Banks
downgraded -- one to junk bond status...
Portugal
Denies Report on Bailout...
Spain
Bets on Budget Cuts...
Next Debt
Crisis 'May Start in Washington'...
WIKILEAKS
TURNS ON OBAMA! … [ Like who hasn’t, and for good reason! Publishing
the Wikileaks is the right thing to do; after all, one cannot possibly look to
even one rationally correct strategy, domestically, globally, geopolitically
that would justify continued hiding/cover-up of the failed strategies, their
genesis, flawed rationale, etc., which has cost this nation and the world
dearly] ]
LEAKED:
Gates Says 'Russian democracy has disappeared' [ Talk about the pot calling the
kettle black! Pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america merely goes through
the façade of some familiar motions, now totally corrupted and control,
reminiscent of what had been a
democracy, long since lost to and fallen by the weight of inherent crime and
corruption.] ...
Ireland
Wins $113 Billion Bailout as EU Ministers Seek to Halt Debt Crisis...
Labour
Leader: 'A national sell out'...
100,000+
march in Dublin over budget cuts...
'Day
of Reckoning' Nears...
Banks
downgraded -- one to junk bond status...
Portugal
Denies Report on Bailout...
Spain
Bets on Budget Cuts...
PAPER:
'Never before in history has a superpower lost control of such vast amounts of
such sensitive information'...
Assange
teasing Obama over drip, drip drip...
FALLOUT...
Go to following pages for
above links:
http://www.albertpeia.com/currentopics2ndqtr10108.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com
http://www.scribd.com/alpeia
http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm
You may post a comment on
my blog on any topic: http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com
U.S.
strips intelligence analyst of security clearance and job but won't say why (Washington
Post) [ Wow! Talk about splitting hairs and not being brain surgery! After all,
even a perfunctory look at Intelligence’s intelligence (Iraq, perpetual wars,
contrived conflicts, etc., though defacto bankruptcy of the nation) leads
ineluctably to a shrug of the shoulders and a conclusion that such are
distinctions without significant, meaningful differences. ]
The
nerve center of the U.S. Treasury Department (Washington Post) [ Nerve
center? The defacto bankrupt u.s. treasury? Brings to mind such word pictures
as myasthenias gravis, Lou Gehrig’s Disease, Alsheimer’s Disease, dementia,
etc.. It’s disappointing that this
article doesn’t paint a more realistic picture of disfunction (though
fraud-facilitative) consistent with those degenerative, mind/body-numbing
diseases aforementioned. ]
Why We
Should Be Skeptical of Any Near Term Strength in the Markets [ Keep in mind, the scenario is even worse than the dismal one
described as follows because the debasement of the dollar has artificially
inflated earnings substantially and lowered P/E multiples thereby (see, ie.,
Davis, etc., infra)] Prieur du Plessis
‘The S&P 500 Index is entering expensive territory with the cyclically
adjusted price-earnings ratio at 22.64 approaching the average of 25.0 from the
post ICT crisis to the advent of the Lehman debacle. The current level is also
at the upper end of the range that existed from 1881 to the start of the ICT
bubble in the latter part of the 1990s. Click [chart] for charts: [chart] On the
normal basis, with the PE calculated trailing 12-month earnings, the market is inexpensive
at 17.86 times earnings compared to the past 20 years. However, the market is
expensive compared to the long-term historical average of 15.5 times earnings. [chart] The Q Ratio
defined by Doug Short as the total price of the market divided by the
replacement cost of all its companies is currently at the upper end of the
range since 2003 and near the previous peaks in valuation since 1900 bar the
ICT bubble in the latter part of the 1990s. [chart] Source:
dshort.com Sitting on a price to book value of 2.3 times the S&P 500 is
still significantly below the average at 2.3 times compared to 2.9 since 1981.
Barring the ICT bubble the average is closer to 2.5, though. [chart] Sources:
Various internet; Plexus Asset Management. If the S&P 500’s long-term
historical earnings growth of 6% in real terms is factored in and given the
average dividend yield of 3.7% of the S&P 500 over the past 70 years, the
capital return over the next seven years is expected to be minus 1.1%
per year. If the exit dividend yield turns out to be that of the past ten
years’ average of 2.1%, though, the capital return will be 6.1% per year. [chart] Sources:
Hussman Funds; Plexus Asset Management. In light of the extended valuation
levels I think the market is currently discounting the latter and view it as
close to the upper limit of what can be expected. I will treat any further
significant strength in the market with the utmost caution. At best, it seems
to me that year-on-year growth in the coming years could range between 0% and
10%. [chart] The
declining trend of the peaks in the Coppock indicator of the S&P 500 is
also worrisome, indicating that further significant upward momentum will be a
hard-fought battle and not without risk. [chart] The
technical position is also telling me that a significant correction may be in
the offing. [chart] Caveat
emptor!
John
Hussman's Index: Stocks Are 13% Overvalued John Hussman, manager of Hussman Strategy Growth Fund
(HSGFX), proposed price to peak 10 year average earnings as a long term stock
market valuation metric. Compared with the normal one year price to earning
ratio, Price to Peak Earnings would eliminate short term noise. This is similar
to Shiller's ‘Cyclically Adjusted Price Earning’
ratio (CAPE10) and Warren Buffett’s stock market
GNP/GDP metric.In his weekly commentary on Dec 5, 2005, titled as 'Earnings Revert to the Mean,
Stocks Will Struggle', he proposed a simplistic method: "buy
when Price to Peak Earnings is lower than 15 and sell when it exceeds
19.5". John Hussman has been using this as the valuation yardstick to
manage the Hussman Strategic Growth Fund HSGFX.A model portfolio called P Hussman Peak PE Market Timing
Strategy Buy 15 Sell 19.5 Weekly is also maintained to live monitor
the strategy suggested in 'Earnings Revert to the Mean,
Stocks Will Struggle'. click [chart] On Nov
19, 2010, the ratio of Real Price to the average of last 10 year Peak Real
Earnings (13.44) to its long term average (11.93) is 1.13. The US stock market is 13%
overvalued. We will be tracking this number biweekly.
Howard Davidowitz on the Economy:
"Here Are the Numbers ... WE'RE BROKE!" The U.S. economy "is a complete disaster,"
Howard Davidowitz declared here in July,
the most recent in a string of dire predictions from
Tech Ticker's most entertaining guest.On the eve of Thanksgiving, I asked
Davidowitz if he had any regrets, or was ready to throw in the towel given recent signs of
economic revival. Are you kidding me? "Here are the numbers...we're
broke," Davidowitz declares, noting the U.S. government goes $5 billion
deeper into debt every day and is facing $1 trillion-plus annual deficits for
the next decade. "In other words, we're bankrupt."As with the
economy, Davidowitz is unwaveringly consistent
in his views on President Obama, calling him "deranged, dysfunctional and
discredited."Results of the midterm election show "the people of this
country think we are in a catastrophe," he says. "I'm with
them."Check the accompanying video for more of Howard's unfettered
opinions and stay tuned for additional clips from
this interview. And...Happy Thanksgiving! Aaron Task is the host of Tech
Ticker. You can follow him on Twitter at @atask or email him at
[email protected]
Big New York insider trading
probe spawns another (AP) ‘NEW
YORK – An insider trading case last year that federal
authorities said was the biggest ever is providing a recipe for another case
that may be even bigger. The current case is largely an extension of work that
led to the arrest of Galleon Group founder Raj Rajaratnam in October 2009. The
Galleon investigation marked the first time that federal authorities used
wiretaps in an insider trading probe. Similarly, wiretaps led to the first
arrest in the latest case. Don Ching Trang Chu, a consulting firm executive,
was arrested Wednesday for allegedly providing private information about a
company's corporate earnings to a hedge fund. The FBI this week searched the
offices of three hedge funds and subpoenaed some of Wall Street's most
influential firms, including Janus Capital Group and SAC Capital. The Galleon
case has resulted in 23 arrests and 14 guilty pleas. Many of those arrested are
cooperating in the latest investigation ...’
The Big
Disconnect: U.S. Corporate Profits Rising With No Job Growth [ This dynamic is far more dire than
presented hereafter; first, profits are inflated by the debasement of the u.s.
fiat paper currency ( see infra, ie., Davis, etc.) ; second, there has been an
irrevocable structural shift in the u.s. economy in the most negative sense,
formally cheered by the churn-and-earn frauds on wall street, and, those jobs
really have been shipped overseas and won’t be coming back. ‘The nation’s been
taken to the cleaners’ as wall street cheered. Another example: DOW down 142,
up 150, down 95 on three successive days. What changed? Hundreds of millions in
(computerized high frequency trade) commissions each day taken out of the real
economy by those parasitic frauds on wall street. ] Hunkar ‘U.S. companies earned profits at an annual rate
of $1.659 trillion in the third quarter, according to a Commerce Department report released
Tuesday. In non-inflation adjusted terms, this is the highest figure since the
government started keeping track over 60 years ago. Since the credit crisis
ended, many businesses have resumed growing profits – but have not resumed
creating jobs. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.6% in October,
with 14.8 million persons unemployed, according to official figures. U.S. firms
slashed 8.5 million jobs during the last recession; millions of these workers
remain unemployed. However, corporate profits are soaring to pre-crisis levels.
This is because American businesses are able to increase profits by rising
productivity, increasing exports, cutting costs, and in some cases raising
prices. Productivity simply means extracting more or the same amount of work
using fewer workers. Globally, U.S. companies are leaders in productivity due
to the corporate culture prevalent in the U.S. and the fierce competition in
many industries. Hence, in the current situation, they are wringing out more
profits with fewer workers. This concept was illustrated in a recent Bloomberg article:
Campbell (CPB),
the world’s largest soup maker, DuPont Co. (DD), the third-biggest
U.S. chemical maker, and United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS), the world’s
largest package-delivery business, are asking workers to help save cash by
working smarter with existing technology. A potential cost: Efficiency gains
reduce the chances recession-casualty jobs will come back.“When the
productivity growth comes, then watch out because that is when companies start
not needing so much labor,” Edmund Phelps, a Columbia University economist and
Nobel laureate, said in an interview.Some 142 non-financial companies in the
S&P 500 had improvements in operating margins of three percentage points or
more from the final three months of 2007, when the previous expansion peaked,
compared with the most recent quarter, according to data compiled by Bloomberg
as of yesterday.
The chart below shows annualized corporate profits, both
before and after taxes, since 1947: [chart]
The following chart shows corporate profit growth in
terms of GDP: [chart]
(Charts source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, via
Haver Analytics, as published by The
New York Times.)
It represented 11.2% of GDP last quarter, a figure
that has been growing for seven consecutive quarters. Therefore, for the past
seven quarters, companies have been earning higher profits with almost no
hiring of workers, since unemployment remains stubbornly high at around 10
percent. The Economist wrote about this dichotomy in the U.S. economy
back in August in an article entitled
“Profits, But No Jobs“:
Americans used to love to hear tales of success in
business. One of the many oddities of the current joyless economic recovery is
that this traditional enthusiasm is strikingly lacking. Corporate America has
bounced back impressively. The quarterly results season that is now nearly over
has revealed that profits are back within a whisker of the all-time highs
achieved before the downturn in late 2008. By some calculations, the rate of
recovery of profits from their trough is the strongest since the end of the
Great Depression. Yet nobody seems pleased. Not investors, who have failed to
push up share prices in the way this sort of earnings growth would have caused
them to do at this stage of previous economic cycles. Certainly not
politicians, who complain that firms are “hoarding” cash and creating hardly
any new jobs. As Robert Reich, an economist at Berkeley and former labour
secretary under Bill Clinton, puts it: “Bottom line: higher corporate
profits no longer lead to higher employment. We’re witnessing a great
decoupling of company profits from jobs.”
[Emphasis mine.] Corporate America is reaping the rewards for tough actions
taken after the financial markets collapsed in September 2008.
Yes
indeed. There is a huge disconnect between rising corporate earnings and job
growth. This recovery is not only a “jobless recovery” but also a “joyless
recovery." According to S&P, non-financial companies in the S&P
500 held over $1 trillion in cash at the end of the first quarter. Much of this
cash is neither getting paid out as higher dividends to investors, nor being
spent on capital investments …’
Debt turmoil, contagion fears
sweep Europe (AP) ‘LISBON, Portugal – Europe struggled mightily
Friday to keep the debt crisis from engulfing country after country. Portugal
passed austerity measures to fend off the speculative
trades pushing it toward a bailout and Ireland rushed to negotiate its own
imminent rescue.As Portugal and Spain insisted they will not seek
outside help, creating an eery sense of deja-vu for investors, Europe braced
for what seems inevitable — more expensive bailouts.The Portuguese Parliament
approved an unpopular debt-reducing package, including tax hikes and cuts in
pay and welfare benefits. But while that helped to avoid a sharper
deterioration in bond markets, the sense among analysts was that the move had
only bought a little time.Adding to the pressure, Ireland's major banks were
hit with credit downgrades — one to junk bond status — as speculation mounted that the
EU-IMF bailout of Ireland, to be revealed within days, would require investors
to take losses, a possibility earlier denied by officials."This confusing
`pea-soup' of indecision, vacillation and disunity by the EU is beginning to
create unnecessarily seismic waves of fear in international bond and money
markets," said David Buik, markets analyst at BGC Partners.Yields in
fiscally weak eurozone countries remained near record highs Friday, stocks
slumped across the board and the 16-nation euro lost another 0.8 percent on the
day to trade at $1.3241, just off two-month lows.Portugal's high debt and low
growth have alarmed investors, but the government insists it doesn't require an
international rescue — a line ominously reminiscent of claims by Greece and Ireland
before their massive rescues.Analysts say markets need more reassurance from EU
leaders that the rot can be stopped in Portugal before spreading to Spain, the
continent's fourth-largest economy — a scenario that would threaten the
16-nation euro currency itself …’
Investor Sentiment and Fund Flows Templeton ‘Two weeks ago bullish investor sentiment was reported at its highest level of the year coming in at 57.56%. At the same time the S&P 500 Index hit its yearly high of 1,225. In the following week the bullish sentiment level fell over 17 percentage points to 40% and the market has trended lower since that time. In the latest week the bullish sentiment level has ticked higher to 47.4% with the market trading pretty much in a volatile range. [chart] From The Blog of HORAN Capital Advisors Click, Data Source: American Association of Individual Investors This market volatility seems to be resulting in investors having uncertainty about investing in equities. The below chart (click to enlarge) shows investors continue to pour money into bond mutual funds at the expense of equity mutual funds. The chart captures data through mid September and the subsequent table (click to enlarge) contains weekly data for November. [chart] From The Blog of HORAN Capital Advisors
[chart] From The Blog of HORAN Capital
Advisors Table Data Source: ICI
…’
The 17 Things Worrying Investors This Week Lloyd's Wall of Worry
Week of November 22-26
Worry Count: 17
CHINA: 1,330,044,605 people can’t be wrong.
The PIIGS: Fasten your seatbelts. It’s gonna be a long, bumpy,
expensive, weird, (insert your own adjective here) freak show of a ride.
CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER 49 STATES: Not yet as dire as “The PIIGS”.
Might I suggest the classier moniker of “The Prosciuttos” for the American basket-case
states?
QE II: Gobble?
U.S. ECONOMY: The “Punky Brewster” of the global economic landscape.
UNEMPLOYMENT: Only thing worse than losing your job, losing your
unemployment check. At least there’s the holiday season to cheer everyone up
(read: heavy sarcasm).
TAXES: Praying to the Financial Market Gods that we don’t have another
TARP-like vote fiasco.
OBAMA ADMINISTRATION PART II: Still two years before the Pres. election
and the peanut gallery is already pleading for a Hail Mary Pass to get them
back in the game.
HFT: Instead of beating up these liquidity supplying traders, let’s
honor them with their very own stock
exchange. But wait -- with no retail saps to pick-off they
will never get that Day 1 opening bell tick. Perfect.
XMAS 2010: As my professor friend Nick says, “Nowadays Americans are
dining off of two menus – The Million
Dollar and the $0.99 Cent.” And both are pissed about it.
CURRENCIES: Poor Mr. Greenback. Does someone need a hug?
HOUSING CRISIS: Price Stabilization – Are we there yet? Just a little
bit more. Are we there yet? Just a little bit more. Are we there yet? Just a
little bit more….
INFLATION/DEFLATION: Fed Chief Ben B. comes out swinging from his heels
in defense of inflation promotion. Don’t punch yourself out as this one is
likely to go the distance.
COMMODITIES: Corrected but still sky high; fortunately these prices are
only affecting core, basic, life-sustaining necessities and sparing our
electronic gadgets and plus-sized SUVs. Whew!
INSIDER TRADING: Another black eye for Hedge Funds. I estimate that
makes black eye number 6,597.
INTEREST RATES: South Korea and China slowly turning up the dial to
“11”. On the other hand the U.S. has removed the dial altogether. This never
ends well….
NORTH KOREA: Here we go again.
Why We
Should Be Skeptical of Any Near Term Strength in the Markets [ Keep in mind, the scenario is even worse than the dismal one
described as follows because the debasement of the dollar has artificially
inflated earnings substantially and lowered P/E multiples thereby (see, ie.,
Davis, etc., infra)] The Big
Disconnect: U.S. Corporate Profits Rising With No Job Growth [ This dynamic is far more dire than
presented hereafter; first, profits are inflated by the debasement of the u.s.
fiat paper currency ( see infra, ie., Davis, etc.) ; second, there has been an
irrevocable structural shift in the u.s. economy in the most negative sense,
formally cheered by the churn-and-earn frauds on wall street, and, those jobs
really have been shipped overseas and won’t be coming back. ‘The nation’s been
taken to the cleaners’ as wall street cheered. Another example: DOW down 142,
up 150, down 95 on three successive days. What changed? Hundreds of millions in
(computerized high frequency trade) commissions each day taken out of the real
economy by those parasitic frauds on wall street. ] Come on! Rosy numbers on
consumer sentiment, unemployment (far better than private forecasts) from the
government prior to the holiday so-called ‘shop till you drop’? How can anyone
believe anything they say? Najerian interviewed by Motek chimes in with the
reason for good retail cheer; viz., people have stopped paying their mortgages
and are using the funds to purchase retail goods; while Davidowitz adds that
with record numbers of americans on food stamps, real unemployment at 17+, and
wall street giving out record bonuses from their accomplished fraud (with
no-recession b.s. bernanke help) of $144 BILLION … the high end stores / jewelers will do well … daaaaah! And, with insiders and wall street frauds selling
into the bubble as preceded last crash, this is an especially great opportunity
to sell / take profits! Suckers’ rally on light volume, full moon, and government
complicity (false data / reports) to keep suckers suckered (easy for the wall
street frauds to do with just a mouse click / push of the button – and, they
know all those technical trade lines that are easy to program in this current
phase of the scam/fraud with the debased dollar). Keep in mind, the totally
mindless blather from the ‘cottage industries’ of and fraudulent wall street
itself in talking up lower P/E multiples when the same is a direct result of
the debasement of the dollar and the consequent manipulation / translation (not
real, see Davis, infra) which preceded the financial crisis / last crash.
Unemployment, trade, deficit, etc., numbers continue decidedly worse than
expected along with other negative data (and in the ‘wrong direction’, that
spin accorded ‘down but not as bad as before’ b*** s*** ) yet the market has
rallied like no tomorrow with used home foreclosure / distressed sales, though
abated owing to ‘foreclosuregate’, the other ‘heralded’ good news. Moreover, the dumbo lemmings of Europe have
jumped on the fraudulent defacto bankrupt american crazy train propelled to the
precipice also as if no tomorrow. This is about keeping the suckers sucked in
with the help of a market-frothing pre-election debased dollar for favorable
currency translation and paper (but not real when measured in, ie., gold, etc.)
profits which preceded the last crisis, inflating a bubble as in the last
crisis to facilitate the churn-and-earn, particularly with computerized (and
high frequency) trades and which commissions they’ll get again on the way down.
There is nothing to support these overbought stock prices, fundamentally or
otherwise. These are desperate criminals ‘at work’. Even wall street shill, the
senile Buffett is saying we’re still in a recession (depression) [ Davis: ‘… all
profits are inflated by 10% (from falling, debased dollar) and that 10% is the
E that gets divided from the P and gives us a much better price/multiple to
hang our hats on and that gets investors to BUYBUYBUY …’ The bull market that never was / were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold ] This is a great
opportunity to sell / take profits (these lower dollar, hyperinflationary
currency manipulations / translations to froth paper stocks will end quite
badly as in last crash)! This
is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression.
The past up moves were manipulated bull (s***) cycles (at best) in a secular
bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the
prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders
commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street ‘programmed
computerized high-frequency churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as
in prior crashes ( widely reported, high-frequency trading routinely
accounts for more than 50% of daily U.S. equity trading volume and regularly
approaches 70%. )’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end
until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally
prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.The Stock Market's
Long Decline Has Begun Smith ]
Who Will Any
Form of Intermediate Term Wealth Effect Really Help? [ The
so-called ‘wealth effect touted by no-recession helicopter ben‘ is just a
continuation of the fraudulent wall street bailout / subsidization
churn-and-earn scam / fraud. Bill Fleckenstein Has Some Thoughts On
QE2: “These Idiots Think We Can Print Our Way To Prosperity” ( I disagree! I believe they are well aware
of the folly of their fraudulent and ultimately disastrous approach but are, as
in the last debacle, creating a fraudulent bubble for the wall street frauds
and insiders to sell into, which they are indeed doing as we speak. (INSIDER SELLING IS AT RECORD HIGHS)
(Another Nobel Economist Says We Have to Prosecute Fraud Or
Else the Economy Won’t Recover As economists such as William
Black and James Galbraith have repeatedly said, we cannot solve the economic
crisis unless we throw the criminals who committed fraud in jail. ) ]
Fed to pump $600B into the economy (Washington Post) [ Listen to this total, absolute b*** s*** … from
no-recession-helicopter ben shalom or b.s. for short, bernanke, with green
shoots wilting on the vine … to his recent ‘better to try and fail than to do
nothing at all’ … Balderdash! … I hearken back to a distinction made by the
brilliant Peter Drucker who in emphasizing the distinction between efficiency
and effectiveness states that being effective means doing the right things,
clearly not the case here … other than frothing that fraudulent wall street
market with high-frequency programmed trades and debased dollars he can’t seem
to print enough of, and for all but wall frauds churn and earn profits as they
retain their fraudulent gains from the last debacle and this one, his policies
are nothing short of disaster for this nation and the world. That money going
into wall street pockets has to come from somewhere … guess. Remember,
america’s defacto bankrupt and the consequences for those continuing frauds on
wall street don’t justify the irretrievable costs! ]
In addition to a question for Bloomberg TV anchor
Betty Lui, who asked Bill to “admit” that “the markets were in a better mood
yesterday after QE2,” which is simply this: “Betty? Betty? Betty? How about in
summer 2008, 2007, were the markets in a good mood? Were the markets in a good
mood then?” Quite
right! The same pattern that preceded the last crash. Falling dollar, high
volume programmed high frequency trades to the upside creating an even larger,
gravity-defying bubble for the wall street frauds and insiders to sell
into. They’re not too big or important to fail and jail! Prospective
economic health depends on that reality! ]
John Hussman:
Bubble, Crash, Bubble, Crash, Bubble... [ This really is the story and far worse than the bad scenario
presented herefter by Hussman in light of the debased dollar and the inflated
earnings and lower P / E ratios thereby, etc. ] Excerpt from the Hussman Funds'
Weekly Market Comment (11/8/10):
‘We will continue this cycle until we
catch on. The problem isn't only that the Fed is treating the symptoms instead
of the disease. Rather, by irresponsibly promoting reckless speculation,
misallocation of capital, moral hazard (careless lending without
repercussions), and illusory "wealth effects," the Fed has become
the disease ... It is difficult to interpret Bernanke's defense of QE2 as
anything else but an attempt to replace the recent bubble with yet another - to
drive already overvalued risky assets to further overvaluation in hopes that
consumers will view the "wealth" as permanent. The problem here is
that unlike housing, which consumers had viewed as immune from major price
declines, investors have observed two separate stock market plunges of over 50%
each, within the past decade alone. While investors have obviously demonstrated
an aptitude for ignoring risk over short periods of time, it is a simple fact
that raising the price of a risky asset comes at the sacrifice of lower
long-term returns, except when there is a proportional increase in the
long-term stream cash flows that can be expected from the security. As a result
of Bernanke's actions, investors now own higher priced securities that can be
expected to deliver commensurately lower long-term returns, leaving their lifetime
"wealth" unaffected, but exposing them to enormous risk of price
declines over the intermediate (2-5 year) horizon. This is not a basis on which
consumers are likely to shift their spending patterns. What Bernanke doesn't
seem to absorb is that stocks are nothing but a claim on a long-term stream of
cash flows that investors expect to be delivered over time. Propping up the
price of stocks changes the distribution of long-term investment returns,
but it doesn't materially affect the cash flows. This reckless policy has done
nothing but to promote further overvaluation of already overvalued assets. The
current Shiller P/E above 22 has historically been associated with subsequent
total returns in the S&P 500 of less than 5% annually, on average, over
every investment horizon shorter than a decade ... We are betting on the wrong
horse. When the Fed acts outside of the role of liquidity provision, it does
more harm than good. Worse, we have somehow accepted a situation where the
Fed's actions are increasingly independent of our democratically elected
government. Bernanke's unsound leadership has placed the nation's economic
stability on two pillars: inflated asset prices, and actions that - in Bernanke's
own words - should be "correctly viewed as an end run around the authority
of the legislature" (see below). The right horse is ourselves, and the
ability of our elected representatives to create an economic environment that
encourages productive investment, research, development, infrastructure, and
education, while avoiding policies that promote speculation, discourage work,
or defend reckless lenders from experiencing losses on bad investments.’
National / World
Violent Crime Rises in New York as … s New York Times
Drudgereport: NKorea warns region is on brink of war...
China issues warning ahead of US-SKorea drills...
Sounds of new fire near island cause panic...
american HOLIDAY NUTS:VIDEO: Crazed shoppers stampede at TARGET...
Marine stabbed at BEST BUY...
Shopper arrested after packing gun in belt; knives,
'pepper grenade'...
Mall food court placed on lockdown after fight,
reports of gunshots...
Shopper arrested after cutting in line, raging...
Police called after 'thousands' rush TOYS R US...
Woman busted after gun threat at toy store...
Shoppers accuse WAL-MART of false advertising...
FACEBOOK posting leads to assault with frying pan,
stabbing...
Woman jumps from bridge onto I-95...
EU Debt Crisis Escalates...
Now rescue threatens Germany...
Irish bond yields hit high, banks sink...
'Day of Reckoning' Nears...
Banks downgraded -- one to junk bond status...
Portugal
Denies Report on Bailout...
Spain Bets on Budget Cuts...
Pentagon to test 2nd space strike craft (illegal
militarization of space … oh, they can afford it … riiiiight!) ...
Next Debt
Crisis 'May Start in Washington'...
Progress in Afghan war called 'uneven'
( Washington Post ) [ Uneven? Riiiiight! The real question
consonant with reality: Is there EVEN progress at all … just a little bit … un
petit peux … teeny weeny, itsy bitsy, one iota of progress … A resounding NO! …
unless you’re counting the magnitude of america’s defacto bankruptcy,
anti-american sentiment, etc.. ]
U.S.
deployment sends a message to China ( Washington Post ) [
And what message is that, pray tell … I’d say they’ve gotten the message
and here’s the first installment of a reply to the multi-front contrived war /
war mongering / pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt nation america …
Drudgereport: CHINA, RUSSIA QUIT DOLLAR
… Previous: N.Korean
attack leaves U.S. with few options
I’d be very concerned about the contrived nature of the incident as set
forth by infowars.com / prisonplanet.com
as follows: Korean
War Crisis: Brought To You By Uncle Sam Despite the fact that South Korea
admits it fired the first shots that prompted the North to retaliate, the vast
majority of the establishment press are feverishly blaming North Korea for a
new escalation in the crisis, while failing completely to acknowledge the fact
that the whole fiasco was generated as a direct result of Uncle Sam’s policy
through two separate administrations to ensure hereditary dictator Kim Jong-Il
and his successors acquired the atom bomb.
North
Korea Attack Part Of RAND Plan For Total War? The exchange of artillery
fire between North and South Korea, which the North says was started by South
Korea firing shells during a military drill, could act as the catalyst for a
huge new conflict that the RAND Corporation has been lobbying for over the past
two years. ] North Korea's artillery attack on a South Korean island Tuesday,
coupled with its choreographed rollout of a new nuclear program, has presented
the U.S. with a massive strategic challenge.
Photos:
Artillery fire exchanged In sending
the aircraft carrier USS George Washington to the Yellow Sea, the Obama
administration says it is putting on a show of U.S. support for South
Korea. Poll:
How should U.S. proceed? Few
good options for U.S.
Ireland
unveils painful plan to cut spending
(Washington Post) [ Things are gettin’ downright existential /
philosophical; all this pain, suffering stuff … I’m waitin’ for them to start
quotin’ Soren Kierkegaard’s ‘sickness unto death’ … yeah … things are that bad
and coming soon to a region near you!
Drudgereport:The Domino Effect... List of Problem Banks Grows... ‘…The number of banks on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp's confidential "problem" list grew over the
summer even while the overall industry posted solid net income. The FDIC says
its list of troubled banks rose to 860 in the July-September quarter from 829
in the previous quarter. At the same time, the FDIC says banks earned $14.5
billion during the third quarter. That was a decrease from the previous quarter's
result of $21.4 billion, but well above the $2 billion banks earned a year
earlier ..’ ]The move comes as the near-bankrupt government scrambles to show
negotiators from the International Monetary Fund and European Union that it can
cut spending and raise more revenue to meet the conditions of a $115 billion
rescue package. Related News Europe
contagion worsens on Merkel's plan
Ireland
rating lowered by S&P Spain
excludes bailout amid 'speculative attacks'
Come on! Rosy numbers on consumer sentiment,
unemployment (far better than private forecasts) from the government prior to
the holiday so-called ‘shop till you drop’? How can anyone believe anything
they say? Najerian interviewed by Motek chimes in with the reason for good
retail cheer; viz., people have stopped paying their mortgages and are using
the funds to purchase retail goods; while Davidowitz adds that with record
numbers of americans on food stamps, real unemployment at 17+, and wall street
giving out record bonuses from their accomplished fraud (with no-recession b.s.
bernanke help) of $144 BILLION … the
high end stores / jewelers will do well … daaaaah! And, with insiders and wall street frauds selling
into the bubble as preceded last crash, this is an especially great opportunity
to sell / take profits! Suckers’ rally on light volume, full moon, and government
complicity (false data / reports) to keep suckers suckered (easy for the wall
street frauds to do with just a mouse click / push of the button – and, they
know all those technical trade lines that are easy to program in this current
phase of the scam/fraud with the debased dollar). Keep in mind, the totally
mindless blather from the ‘cottage industries’ of and fraudulent wall street
itself in talking up lower P/E multiples when the same is a direct result of
the debasement of the dollar and the consequent manipulation / translation (not
real, see Davis, infra) which preceded the financial crisis / last crash.
Unemployment, trade, deficit, etc., numbers continue decidedly worse than
expected along with other negative data (and in the ‘wrong direction’, that
spin accorded ‘down but not as bad as before’ b*** s*** ) yet the market has
rallied like no tomorrow with used home foreclosure / distressed sales, though
abated owing to ‘foreclosuregate’, the other ‘heralded’ good news. Moreover, the dumbo lemmings of Europe have
jumped on the fraudulent defacto bankrupt american crazy train propelled to the
precipice also as if no tomorrow. This is about keeping the suckers sucked in
with the help of a market-frothing pre-election debased dollar for favorable
currency translation and paper (but not real when measured in, ie., gold, etc.)
profits which preceded the last crisis, inflating a bubble as in the last
crisis to facilitate the churn-and-earn, particularly with computerized (and
high frequency) trades and which commissions they’ll get again on the way down.
There is nothing to support these overbought stock prices, fundamentally or
otherwise. These are desperate criminals ‘at work’. Even wall street shill, the
senile Buffett is saying we’re still in a recession (depression) [ Davis: ‘… all
profits are inflated by 10% (from falling, debased dollar) and that 10% is the
E that gets divided from the P and gives us a much better price/multiple to
hang our hats on and that gets investors to BUYBUYBUY …’ The bull market that never was / were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold ] This is a great
opportunity to sell / take profits (these lower dollar, hyperinflationary
currency manipulations / translations to froth paper stocks will end quite
badly as in last crash)! This
is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression.
The past up moves were manipulated bull (s***) cycles (at best) in a secular
bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the
prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders
commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street ‘programmed
computerized high-frequency churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as
in prior crashes ( widely reported, high-frequency trading routinely
accounts for more than 50% of daily U.S. equity trading volume and regularly
approaches 70%. )’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end
until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally
prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.The Stock Market's
Long Decline Has Begun Smith ]
Wednesday's
Data Dump: Durable Goods, Jobless Claims, Wages [ Dump indeed! As in stocks. After all,
as bad as the durable goods data is, it no doubt is worse than they’re saying!
] The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis published several economic reports today
that collectively offer a mixed bag of macroeconomic news. The updates on new
orders for durable goods, personal income and spending, and weekly jobless
claims are usually dispatched on separate days. Because of the Thanksgiving
holiday tomorrow, all three were released this morning, leaving an unusually
hefty dose of statistics to review. Here’s a brief tour of some of the
noteworthy data points:
DURABLE GOODS (much worse than expected)
New orders for durable goods dropped a hefty 3.3% on a seasonally adjusted
basis in October vs. the previous month. The drop reverses September’s revised
5.0% rise, the Census Bureau reports.
It’s too soon to say if October’s retreat for new orders is a sign of things to
come, but it’s troubling nonetheless. Indeed, we haven’t seen such a deep fall
in durable goods orders since the 8% tumble in January 2009, when the financial
crisis and recession were raging. The setback was widespread. Even after
ignoring the volatile aircraft sector, or removing the government’s
defense-related orders, October was still a losing month for durable goods
orders. The only good news is that new orders are still up sharply vs. a year
ago, rising more than 10% last month vs. October 2009. And let's remember, too,
that this is a volatile series. It's also a crucial leading indicator, and so
for the moment there’s a new reason to wonder about the staying power of the
economic recovery. One month is hardly definitive proof of anything, but any
excuse to worry will do these days. click [chart] for images
[chart]
PERSONAL INCOME & SPENDING
The trend was more encouraging for income and spending last month. Disposable
personal income (DPI) rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in October, more than
repairing September’s modest 0.1% decline, according to
the Bureau of Economic Analysis. DPI has increased every month this year
except for September’s mild setback. Meanwhile, consumer spending marched
upward last month as well. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) advanced in
October by a respectable 0.4% over September. That’s the fourth consecutive
monthly rise. The increase in consumption was especially strong in the
cyclically sensitive area of durable goods purchases, which gained 1.9% in
October—the best month since March’s 3.5% jump.
[chart]
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS
We saved the best for last. New filings for jobless benefits dropped by a
robust 34,000 last week, the Labor Department advises.
That pushed new weekly unemployment applications down to 407,000—the lowest
since July 2008. Is the long-awaited drop in jobless claims finally here? If
so, that bodes well for stronger job growth, or so history suggests. Of course,
there’s always reason to doubt any one report. The obvious suspect for skewing
the data is the Thanksgiving holiday. Did the newly unemployed delay filing
last week because of Turkey day? We’ll know soon enough. But even if last
week’s drop is misleading, there’s no denying the improvement in this series over
the past few months. If the lower levels of jobless claims holds in the weeks
ahead, it’s a strong sign of improving momentum in the labor market.
[chart]
WAGES
In fact, the update on private wages for October in the spending and income
report suggests that the job market is on the mend. Or at least wage growth is.
Private wages rose 0.6% last month, the fourth-straight monthly increase. On a
year-over-year basis, the trend looks even stronger, as the chart below shows.
Falling applications for jobless benefits and rising wages is a potent
combination, assuming it lasts. It has so far.
[chart]
AP
Business Highlights: On Wednesday November 24, 2010, 5:47 pm EST
‘Probe leads investors to wonder: Is game rigged? NEW YORK (AP) -- The
Wall Street insider trading investigation may lead everyday investors -- already
rattled by a stock market meltdown, a one-day "flash crash" and the
Madoff scandal -- to finally conclude that the game is rigged …’ [ Come on!
Wake up! It’s worse than just rigged! These computerized high-frequency
churn-and-earn commissioned tades are literally eating away at the nation’s
productive resources ($144 billion in wall street bonuses this year alone) …
then the continuing frauds … the mark to anything worthless paper from the last
fraud still out there … now let’s see if they have the fortitude and resolve to
prosecute the perps. ]
YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]:
‘… Support picked up amid news that the latest initial jobless claims count
fell 34,000 week-over-week to a two-year low of 407,000, which is less than the
442,000 initial claims that had been widely expected among economists polled by
Brieifng.com. Continuing claims set their own two-year low at 4.18 million,
down from 4.32 million in the prior week. The improvement in jobless claims
generally overshadowed disappointing durable goods orders data for October.
Total orders declined 3.3%, which is worse than the 0.3% decline that had been
widely expected. Orders less transportation fell 2.7%, which contrasts sharply
to the 0.4% increase that had been expected by many. The rather poor orders
readings for October come after overall orders for September increased 5.0% and
orders less transportation increased 1.3%. Less attention was paid to personal
income and spending for October. Income increased 0.5%, which is slightly
stronger than the expected increase of 0.4%. Spending increased 0.4%, but that
was a bit softer than the 0.6% increase that had been expected. In the prior
month income was flat and spending had increased 0.3%. Once trade opened and
stocks made a nice gap up, buying was further bolstered by the final Consumer
Sentiment Survey for November from the University of Michigan. It improved to
71.6 after a preliminary reading of 69.3. However, enthusiasm for that report was
offset by news that new home sales for October fell 8.1% month-over-month to an
annualized rate of 283,000 units, which is less than the 314,000 units that had
been broadly forecast by economists polled by Briefing.com …’
[video]
Teddy Weisberg: No Positives for Market
NEW YORK (TheStreet) - - Teddy Weisberg of Seaport Securities is bearish
on the direction of the market.
Stocks Sharply Lower Today as Fed Minutes Aggravate Negative
Global Factors Midnight
Trader 4:14 PM, Nov 23, 2010
National / World
[ http://www.prisonplanet.com http://www.infowars.com ]
Drudgereport: Tough-guy
Putin calls DiCaprio 'a real man' for Tiger Summit ...
CHINA,
RUSSIA QUIT DOLLAR
OPT-OUT...
POLL:
61% oppose new airport security measures...
Prosthetics
Become Source of Shame at Airport Screenings...
Scanner
Uproar Shadows Holiday Travel...
AAA
Expects Record Traffic on Highways...
30-Mile Backup on Mass Turnpike...
VIDEO: TSA
Speedo Protester...
VIDEO:
Woman wears bikini to LAX...
Woman:
Agents Singled Me Out For My Breasts...
Fliers Claim TSA Has Deactivated Body Scanners...
Jobless
Claims, Durable Goods Offer Mixed (Though Faked to the Upside) Economic
Message...
Food
bank delivery van stolen on eve of Thanksgiving...
Squatters
overrunning foreclosed homes in LA...
Ireland
Plans to Reduce Spending 20%, Raise Taxes...
Cut
Minimum Wage...
Portugal,
Spain hit by investor fears over debt...
The
Domino Effect...
List of
Problem Banks Grows... ‘…The number of banks on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp's confidential "problem" list grew over the
summer even while the overall industry posted solid net income. The FDIC says
its list of troubled banks rose to 860 in the July-September quarter from 829
in the previous quarter. At the same time, the FDIC says banks earned $14.5
billion during the third quarter. That was a decrease from the previous
quarter's result of $21.4 billion, but well above the $2 billion banks earned a
year earlier ..’
Go to following pages for
above links:
http://www.albertpeia.com/currentopics2ndqtr10108.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com
http://www.scribd.com/alpeia
http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm
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N.Korean
attack leaves U.S. with few options
( Washington Post ) [ I’d be
very concerned about the contrived nature of the incident as set forth by
infowars.com / prisonplanet.com as
follows: Korean
War Crisis: Brought To You By Uncle Sam Despite the fact that South Korea
admits it fired the first shots that prompted the North to retaliate, the vast
majority of the establishment press are feverishly blaming North Korea for a
new escalation in the crisis, while failing completely to acknowledge the fact
that the whole fiasco was generated as a direct result of Uncle Sam’s policy
through two separate administrations to ensure hereditary dictator Kim Jong-Il
and his successors acquired the atom bomb.
North
Korea Attack Part Of RAND Plan For Total War? The exchange of artillery
fire between North and South Korea, which the North says was started by South
Korea firing shells during a military drill, could act as the catalyst for a
huge new conflict that the RAND Corporation has been lobbying for over the past
two years. ] North Korea's artillery attack on a South Korean island Tuesday,
coupled with its choreographed rollout of a new nuclear program, has presents
the U.S. with a massive strategic challenge.
Photos:
Artillery fire exchanged
Joblessness
to remain elevated, Fed projects ( Washington
Post ) [ Mr. Irwin’s come a long way
from his ‘glass-half-full-though-empty’ days and I just wish in discussing
those so-called enhanced earnings that he included reference to the lessened
quality of said earnings as accomplished by way of the debasement of the u.s.
currency inflating a bubble in part thereby as preceded the last crash,; which
bubble the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into (see
plenary discussion infra, ie., Why
Ben Bernanke Is Wrong Rein This column originally appeared in Forbes ‘… In other words, he wants simply to
reinflate the bubble that caused our problems in the first place. Soaring
equity prices won't increase confidence until more jobs are created. It will
only postpone the day of reckoning…’ , etc. ). ] Even though conditions are likely to remain
miserable for job seekers, a bounce-back is underway in the nation's corporate
sector.
[video]
Teddy Weisberg: No Positives for Market
NEW YORK (TheStreet) - - Teddy Weisberg of Seaport Securities is bearish
on the direction of the market.
Unintended
Consequences of Bernanke's QE2 Simon
Maierhofer, On Tuesday November 23, 2010, 12:34 pm EST
In the
mid-2000s, Alan Greenspan was the hero of the financial world. With his blunt
philosophy of inflation, Greenspan was credited for turning the tech-bust into
a real estate and financial boom.Following the 2008/2009 meltdown, Greenspan
morphed from hero to scapegoat (or for Thanksgiving aficionados; turkey to
feather duster). Another Turkey to Feather Duster Roundtrip?Bernanke carried on
the torch of fearless Keynesian Fed Presidents and made it on the cover of Time
magazine within his first term. Much ink has been spilled about the effects and
side effects of quantitative easing in general and QE2 in particular (click
here if you care to read my two cents worth). Actions speak louder than words,
and the initial reaction by stocks and commodities has been net-positive (at least
when going back to the initial announcement), which is exactly what the
financial alchemists in Washington wanted to see; but, what about the economy
or the unemployed? Obviously, that's only a secondary concern.According to
Bernanke (quoted in the Washington Post), inflating stock prices is the golden
grail of today's monetary policy: 'Higher stock prices will boost consumer
wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased
spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle,
will further support economic expansion.'
Perhaps it's
been lost to Mr. Bernanke that the Fed actively inflating asset prices has a
number of unfair side effects.
1) Wall Street
banksters' get to profit from their mistakes that led to the sub-prime debacle.
2) Retail
investors have been withdrawing money from mutual funds for two years. The
effect of higher stock prices is lost to many.
3) Artificially
depressing interest rates takes away wealth from savers and distributes it to
borrowers. Who are today's savers? Retirees and near-retirees. In fact, this
group accounts for more individuals (and lost spending power) than ever before.
WHAT EFFECT HAS THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S MONETARY POLICY HAD ON JOBLESS
AMERICANS? LET'S EXAMINE THE FACTS:
August 2007:
Fed lowered discount rate, unemployment rate at 4.7%
December 2008:
Fed reduced rates to just north of zero, unemployment rate at 7.4%.
March 2009: Fed
launches QE1, unemployment rate at 8.6%.
November 2010:
Fed launches QE2, unemployment rate at 9.6%.
While large cap
(NYSEArca: IVV - News), mid cap (NYSEArca: MDY - News), small cap (NYSEArca:
IWM - News), international (NYSEArca: EFA - News), emerging market stocks
(NYSEArca: EEM - News) and commodities are brewing their own Fed sponsored
bubble, the jobless are left in the dust. Would there have been anyway to help
them?
Our
infrastructure (streets and bridges) is literally rotting away beneath our
tires. $600 billion (as in $600 billion QE2) would have been enough money to
employ 4 million construction workers at $75,000/year for two years.
Going this
route would provide jobs for the hardest hit sector, increase morale and social
status and distribute money to the consumer so he can do what he does best -
consume. The labor cost of such an infrastructure repair program would be far
less than $600 billion because the government wouldn't have to pay unemployment
benefits to Americans who could be employed.
The United
States' current predicament is not unique, it happened before. Not in the U.S.,
but in Japan (NYSEArca: EWJ - News). Following a late 1980s real estate bust,
Japan's Nikkei has gone nowhere but down (aside from counter trend rallies,
some massive, but nonetheless trumped by the bear market).
The chart below
illustrates Japan's pain. The April 2010 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter,
includes an in-depth analysis of the similarities between the two scenarios.
One of the few
differences is that Japan's breakdown occurred amidst a roaring global bull
market. The U.S. bear market isn't that lucky, as it parallels an escalating
European debt crisis and, therefore, should be swifter and ultimately more
pronounced.
If there's only
one sentence you take away from this article, let it be this: Things change
fast. If you wish, you may add a second: Bear markets work much faster than
bull markets.
Momentum is a
strong force. Upside momentum breeds optimism which eventually culminates at
optimistic extremes. A few days before the April decline, the ETF Profit
Strategy Newsletter noted that the: 'message conveyed by the composite
bullishness is unmistakably bearish.'
A more recent
example of bear market forces taking hold can be found in the municipal bond
market. For over two years, muni bonds have been quenching the thirst of yield
hungry investors.
On July 8, the
ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter observed: 'Predicting the location of the next credit
crisis isn't easy by virtue of the fact that there are so many darn cracks
everywhere. Nevertheless, the $2.8 trillion municipal bond market looks
especially ripe for disaster.'
On August 26 -
the very day muni bonds and 30-year Treasury Bonds (NYSEArca: TLT - News)
peaked - the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter followed up the initial red flag
with this word of advice: 'Our technical analysis along with fundamentals
suggest that T-Bonds are getting ready to roll over. A look at the overall
picture suggests that this is more than just a minor correction. The rally in
municipal, corporate and high yield bonds is showing signs of weakness too.
Investors should start exiting from those markets.'
The chart of
the iShares S&P National Muni Bond ETF (NYSEArca: MUB - News) below shows
that MUB lost nearly two years worth of gains within a matter of weeks.
Thus far, the
major indexes a la Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI), S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) and Nasdaq
(Nasdaq: ^IXIC) have largely resisted that drag. But a chain is only as strong
as its weakest link.
At its most
recent earnings disappointment, Cisco CEO Chambers disclosed that weak sales to
the government and state sector contributed to weak earnings. The government
sector accounts for 13% of spending on goods and services.
It's probably
just a matter of time until this weakness affects the tech (NYSEArca: XLK -
News), and by extension the consumer discretionary (NYSEArca: XLY - News)
sectors; especially since earnings for 2011 are expected to clock in at an
all-time high (no, that's not a typo, check Standard and Poor's earnings
estimates).
For right now,
the straws (fundamental problems) are piling up on the camel's back (stock
market), until the last straw breaks his back. My personal guess is that the
insanity will go on a bit longer, but as we've seen in 2000, 2007, 2010 and the
above MUB chart, the power of the last straw can bring the camel to its knees
in a hurry.
Unlike Wall
Street and the financial media, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter doesn't
simply ignore red flags, but tries to identify Trojan-Horse-like asset classes
before they enter and destroy your portfolio. Semi-weekly updates continually
monitor major asset classes and provide invaluable support and resistance levels.
Fred
Carstensen: We're in for a Lost Decade
Levy ‘Economist Fred Carstensen is a professor of economics at the
University of Connecticut and executive director of the university's Center for
Economic Analysis.
H.L.: What do
you predict is the real effect of the Federal Reserve’s plan to buy $600
billion worth of Treasurys – and what do you think of Fed Chairman Ben
Bernanke’s defense of the move against other countries’ negative reactions?
F.C.: It’s
exactly what the late economist Milton Friedman, the great guru of conservative
economic thought, would want him to do. There’s no question that it’s the right
strategy, and there’s no question that it’s actually working. The American
stock market is up 14 percent since Bernanke announced in August that he would
do this. And it’s gotten investors to switch from government debt to equities.
Household wealth has increased $1.3 trillion as a consequence, and households
feeling somewhat wealthier will consume somewhat more.
The hope is
that the shift in investments will also help convince companies to expand. So
insofar as the Fed police can actually influence financial markets, it’s
worked.
But there are
two issues: First, it may not be large enough to really have a sufficient
impact on economic performance. Second, monetary policy is like pushing on a
string, because ultimately businesses respond to demand not supply. So,
Bernanke has successfully improved the supply of credit, but American demand is
still very weak. In fact, some significant share of the benefits from the
policy flow out of the country and flow abroad. And because so much of what we
consume is imported, it increases capital exports to China, Viet Nam, South
Korea, and Germany and increases imports of merchandise, and those two
processes tend to drive the value of the dollar down. It diminishes the demand
for dollars and increases the demand for foreign currencies, because when you
invest in China you have to convert your dollars into Chinese currency. The
consequence is the demand for dollar falls. That’s why foreign countries are
complaining about this, because it’s working. Meanwhile, the foreign countries
that I mentioned are pursuing dynamic economic development strategies,
improving their workforce, investing in education, investing in infrastructure.
The U.S. is pursuing none of these strategies in any coherent way.
But let’s get
this into perspective. The depreciation of the dollar is much, much less than
the depreciation that occurred during the Bush administration. There is no
historical basis on which to complain about the change in the value of the
American dollar or about the Fed’s policies by other countries or by the
Republicans who are criticizing it and asking that it be stopped. The only
reason they would want it stopped is because they want to thwart economic
recovery. I do mean that the only motivation that I can understand is they want
to thwart recovery. But the data demonstrate that the policy has been
successful, but in a large sense, the policy has not and will not improve
American economic performance.
H.L.: Where is
the U.S. economy headed?
F.C: In general,
the economy is going to grow at an anemic pace, and as a consequence it will
generate relatively few new jobs. We will therefore continue to have relatively
high unemployment rates for several years. I don’t see how we’re going to get
unemployment rates below 8 to 10 percent in the foreseeable future. I don’t see
where the job creation is going to come from.
Most
forecasters have downgraded their projections for U.S. economic growth for the
next two or three years from a range of 2.5 to 3 percent growth down to 2 to
2.3 percent annually. That is such a slow growth rate it will create very few
jobs. We will not get a job recovery in the near future, and we are not making
the kinds of strategic investments that are likely to strengthen our economic
performance further out. Frankly, I think we’re in for a lost decade. I can
easily see us limping along through the entire decade.
H.L.: What’s
going to change it?
F.C.: It’s
just a matter of effective political leadership and getting the people to
understand the kind of perverse policies that we’re currently pursuing. There’s
a huge mythology that’s been out there over the last 30 years that government
doesn’t do anything useful, Yet it’s public-sector investment in human capital
and infrastructure that is at the heart of America’s historic economic success
and it is precisely the strategy that these competitive economies are now
pursuing. India and China are in fact making massive investments in education,
rfeserach and development, and infrastructure. It is making them progressively
more competitive, even as America becomes less competitive.
H.L.: Is the
economy threatened by deflation -- the downward cycle of prices, leading to
lower profits, then lower wages, then fewer new jobs, and more layoffs -- that
feeds on itself, drains the economy, and keeps it flaccid?
F.C.: No.
There is some small threat of deflation, but the Federal Reserve is going to do
everything imaginable to prevent that from happening. If we got into a
deflationary cycle it would be extraordinarily destructive.
H.L.: Will the
resurgent Republicans solve our economic problems with the plans they’ve
announced, or will their goal of blocking all Democratic initiatives paralyze
the economy and the nation even more than they already are?
F.C.: Yes. I
have seen nothing in the Republican proposals that suggest anything, any
strategies or initiatives that would help to drive economic recovery. They talk
about budget cuts. Well, budget cuts are going to reduce the number of people
who are employed, reduce the demand for goods and services, so inherently what
the core set of proposals that Republicans seem to be committed to enacting
would clearly be a drag on the national economy.
H.L.: So you
seem to think that the deficit hawks are wrong in their approach to healing the
economy?
F.C.: Reducing
the deficit in the short term in the face of a weakening economy inevitably
weakens the economy further. That’s simply basic economic analysis that has
nothing to do with ideology.
H.L.: Should
all the Bush tax cuts be extended or just those for people earning less than
$250,000 a year?
F.C.: Keep them, kill them, it won’t make much difference either way. The reason is that the Bush tax cuts themselves delivered very little benefit to the American economy. Following the Bush tax cuts we had the lowest level of business investment in 50 years. We had a very weak job recovery. The benefits of the Bush tax cuts both in consumption and in investment largely flowed out of the country. They benefited the global economy. They did not benefit the American economy. We import our consumption goods and the attractive investments are in emerging markets, so the money did not stay here.’
Tumbling
Tuesday - China Korea and Europe, Oh My! Davis ‘Man was yesterday silly! We ran with some
upside plays out of the box but they died by 10:10. I called the top at 10:12
when I pointed out to Members that 2,530 was Friday’s top-out on the Nas and
2,532 was resistance going back to the Friday before. By 10:54, the Nasdaq was
back down to 2,515 and I said to Members:
Wow, that turned fast! What a joke that the Nas can pop from
2,500 to 2,530 in 30 mins and then all the way back down 30 mins later – as I
said this morning – an untradable market unless you are a real cowboy
day-trader.
Of course we are cowboy day
traders, and mega kudos to JRW, who called a move into TZA at $20.06 and a move
out at $20.84 (4%) at 1pm. My own 1:31 note to Members was: "Volume died
at 77M on the Dow at 1:27, only 50M since 10am so very slow at the moment,
which means we could start heading up again." And, of course, we did! At
1:57, I added: "Meanwhile, Nas looks like it’s going to make another run
back to 2,532 – just to make sure it’s totally obvious what a farce this market
is…"
Of course, at PSW, we don’t
care IF the market is fixed as long as know HOW it’s fixed so we can play along
at home. As the Nas headed back to our 2,532 target (where they closed exactly
for the day), we added the weekly QQQQ $53 puts at .45, which was a play I
called at 3:01 in Member Chat, while the puts were still selling for .55 –
that's how fixed the market is – we know option prices an hour in advance!
Speaking of fixed markets,
the image above right is from Bess Levin’s well-titled "Insider Trading
Festivus 2010" in which she suggests sending FBI strip-o-grams to the evil
hedge fund of your choice "just to f*ck with them!" Bess cautions
fund managers not to assume that all FBI agents bursting through their doors
are strippers as that can lead to some very awkward moments…
Meanwhile, it’s a Festivus
for the rest of us (who are short) as the markets roll back over. Of course,
yesterday’s insane market moves served to reinforce our "take the money
and run" sentiment as we got a drop on the Dow all the way to 11,060 at
12:48 yet the Dow recovered 120 points into the close on weak volume that gave
us the cue to move in short – despite our bullish expectations for HP (HPQ)
earnings (we sold puts earlier in the session).
The Nikkei was up 1% this
morning but the rest of Asia had a rotten day with the Hang Seng falling 627
points (2.67%) and the Shanghai off 56 points (2%) and the BSE down 265 points
(1.33%). This knocked the FXI below support and down to the 22 DMA at 42.67
(see David Fry’s chart) and breaking that would be – bad. China is experiencing
runaway inflation and Wen Jiabao’s price controls are doing nothing to rein in
the 54% increase in the money supply over the past two years – an amount our
own Fed calls "a good start."
Bloomberg has an article
today with this little anecdote:
Standing near his 12-table noodle shop on Beijing’s
Yonghegong Avenue, owner Liu Heliang says meat and vegetable prices have
climbed 10 percent in a year and staff wages are up 40 percent.
“I’m struggling to make ends meet with costs going up like
this,” said Liu, a native of Sichuan province who pays his workers as much as
1,800 yuan ($271) a month, or 88 percent more than the Beijing minimum wage, to
serve up a staple Chinese meal. “Raising prices is the only way out,” he said,
predicting he won’t be able to hold out beyond two months.
I mean, really people, how is
a man supposed to run a successful business when he is forced to pay his
workers close to $10 a day?!? This is why we must protect the business owners
in this country before our own workers start getting funny ideas about being
able to afford to eat the food they serve or buy the things they make ... This
is a great example of why China’s growth is unsustainable. Just the way Egypt’s
growth was unsustainable 3,000 years ago because it was based on slavery,
China’s growth also reaches a breaking point if the workers are no longer
willing to accept their lot in life.
Paying a worker $271 a month
(and that dollar matters when it’s only $271!) for 160 hours of work (and you
know it’s more than that) is $1.70 per hour or about what I made as a busboy in
1976, when my plan was to buy a brand new VW Beetle for $1,999. That’s why Tata
motors has cars for $2,499 – that’s what the market will bear over there! Of
course, in 1976 gas was $1 per gallon and we’d put 6 kids in that VW and $1
each would get us to the shore and back and another Dollar would pay for lunch
so I was happy to work one hour to pay for a day off and save the rest. Modern
workers are not so lucky as they work all 40 hours of the week just to buy
necessities and spend their free time praying nothing happens that will force
them to borrow money.
“They are just not addressing
the fundamental problem at all,” said Patrick Chovanec, an associate professor
at Beijing’s Tsinghua University. With the expansion of credit and cash in the
economy stemming from China’s response to the global crisis, “you’re sitting on
a volcano,” he said. China’s plans to rein in prices include selling state food
reserves, stabilizing the cost of natural gas and cracking down on speculation
in and hoarding of agricultural products, the State Council said. The aim is to
damp food inflation that reached 10 percent in October, more than twice the 4.4
percent headline rate.
If you think you don’t have
to worry about whether or not Chinese workers can afford a Big Mac, think
again. The myth of infinite Chinese demand is what’s spurring the speculative
rally in America. Since the people PHYSICALLY cannot afford price increases,
margins are being squeezed and sales are dropping fast. Bloomberg points to
another example of an apple seller whose prices went up 60% which led directly
to a 60% drop in sales – all this is right on the money with my call on the
2010 outlook I made last year – it’s "A Tale of Two Economies" and
the wealthy investing class simply does not see (or does not want to see) the
abject suffering of the working class – whether it’s Chinese or US workers, as
the situation reaches a breaking point.
Even the mighty US consumers
are nearing the breaking point with just 15.7% of holiday shopping completed by
the week ending Nov. 14th compared to 20.5% at this time last year and 28.3% in
2008 – the last year we had a "healthy" economy and when 10M more
people had jobs and 4M more families had homes to put a Christmas tree up in.
Food companies are still
reeling from lower sales volumes that began in 2008 with what some dub
"pantry deloading." Over the past two years, the number of items kept
in American pantries has fallen about 20%, according to a recent SymphonyIRI
survey. Consumers are also cutting back on the range of goods they stock. The
average household had 369 unique items in its medicine cabinets, pantries and
cosmetics bags this year, compared with 404 in 2006, the survey found.
[chart]
We’re going to run our annual
PSW Holiday Shopping Survey this weekend so our Members can give us their
observations of Black Fridays from around the nation. Our holiday surveys have
been excellent predictors in the past so I look forward to this year’s results!
The Government revised GDP UP this morning, to 2.5% in Q3 from 2% originally
estimated. That’s a nice 50% improvement over Q2′s 1.7%, although we
still have 9.6% official unemployment but I guess those bums weren’t shopping
anyway. A big contributor to GDP was a 28.2% boost in year over year profits in
the Financial Sector, which is about 20% of the S&P these days. Thank
goodness for that as we were sure worried about our Bankster buddies in this
rough economy!
openingimageFed Minutes are
out at 2 pm and we can expect the Fed to lower their forecasts, despite the GDP.
They have to do this to justify QE2, of course, as "The Bernank" does
whatever it takes to distract you from what’s really happening.
Ireland is NOT
"fixed." As I mentioned in yesterday’s post, they are two weeks away
from a budget vote and, if they can’t agree on the loan terms that are being
shoved down their throats – we could be right back to chaos over there. Now
that Ireland does appear to have a lifeline, the sharks have moved on to
surround Portugal, Italy and Spain, with Antonio Garcia Pascual, chief southern
European economist at Barclays Capital in London, saying “Spain is bit too big
to be bailed out, the size of a rescue required would use up all the funds
available and then you have Italy with contagion as well,” prompting “a
situation where the euro itself is put into question.”
So happy Tuesday to you and
GOOD LUCK – we’re going to need it to get through this mess! We’ll be watching
our 10% lines and taking the money and running on our short plays because we
don’t really have the volume for a proper breakdown just yet but the trend is
no longer the friend of the bulls who need to do more than last minute
stick-saves to turn things around at this point.
Things should be interesting
this afternoon with the Fed Minutes and, for the morning, we’ll be looking to
hold the floor we established last Thursday and Friday at Dow 11,120 (already
lost), S&P 1,185 (already lost), Nasdaq 2,500 (holding), NYSE 7,550 (oops
again), and Russell 715 (holding). If those break down, we’ve got a clean shot
for another 2.5% drop below those lines and that’s going to make for a very
worried Thanksgiving for those who ignored my cash calls of the past month.’
Why
Ben Bernanke Is Wrong Rein This column originally appeared in Forbes [ ‘… In other words, he wants simply to
reinflate the bubble that caused our problems in the first place. Soaring
equity prices won't increase confidence until more jobs are created. It will
only postpone the day of reckoning…’ ]
‘I have a childhood friend named Johnny. Our families used to vacation together. By high school we had grown apart, as Johnny got into drinking and pot. He dropped out of school and graduated to hard drugs and who knows what else. By the time he reached his 20s, he was a total mess. Out of love, his parents vainly doled out money and vacations to him. No matter how well-intentioned they were, his parents basically enabled him. Johnny got worse and worse. Nothing worked until one day they kicked him to the curb and said "we love you but we won't give you any more money.' The next few years were torture for both Johnny and his parents. He would disappear for months at a time, occasionally showing up gaunt and ragged. Fortunately, he is now getting rid of his internal demons, off drugs, back in school and living at home. Like Johnny's parents, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is misguided with his $600 billion "QE2" quantitative easing. He is continuing to enable America's addiction to debt without addressing America's internal structural problems. As I said on Bloomberg TV in an appearance last week, America is addicted to debt the way a drug addict is addicted to heroin. Bernanke needs to cut off the money supply, as Johnny's parents did, and have the U.S. go through very painful restructuring for three to five years. Otherwise America will never get better. With QE2, Bernanke is copying the mistakes Japan made over the past two decades trying to move beyond its stagnation. Like the U.S. now, Japan lowered interest rates nearly to zero and invested in infrastructure. Those policies led to drawn-out stagnation with entire industries and towns dependent on handouts. The same will happen to America if Bernanke continues to pump liquidity into the system. Why? Low interest rates and an increased money supply are worthless tools if companies don't think there are ways to make money. More than a trillion dollars sits on the books of America's largest companies in reserves for a rainy day, because they are scared about the future. It is true that when credit markets don't work a short-term money infusion is needed (as was done with the Trouble Asset Relief Program in 2008), but continuing to throw money at those problems nearly three years after the recession started in the hope that something will finally stick is foolish. Aside from relying on the wrong measures to remedy the current situation, here are two more reasons why Bernanke's policy is wrong.First, Bernanke says he wants a looser monetary policy to boost the stock market and increase confidence, even though the Dow has rebounded from 6,000 to 11,000 in the last two years. Huh? What a ridiculous, dimwitted view for a central b anker to have. In other words, he wants simply to reinflate the bubble that caused our problems in the first place. Soaring equity prices won't increase confidence until more jobs are created. It will only postpone the day of reckoning. Instead, the U.S. should look to Singapore for guidance. The government there subsidized new hires of private companies as soon as the crisis hit. The result? Companies competed to hire at a fraction of their normal costs. Even though Singapore's export-oriented economy got hit hard, its gross domestic product grew 10.6% in the third quarter of 2010, year over year. America should subsidize new hires for small and medium enterprises in key sectors like clean technology, high technology and media and focus on job creation in small and medium-size businesses, not on temporary census takers. That will boost confidence and create jobs. Second, global investors are rightly worried that with the U.S. money supply growing the value of the dollar will continue to drop. So what are they doing? Companies likeApple, General Electric and Pepsi are investing in emerging markets like Brazil, India and China that are rebounding better from the crisis. The result is massive asset bubbles in those places that could create great volatility if they popped. In other words, Bernanke is unleashing America's economic woes and bubbles on the rest of the world. America's closest allies like Germany and Brazil are protesting, sensibly, as are the Chinese. They don't want Bernanke to fob off America's problems onto them. Lowering the value of dollar also won't help America export its way to success, as Bernanke and President Obama mistakenly believe. Countries like Thailand and Japan will keep up by devaluing their own currencies. Currency wars don't help anyone. Instead of debasing the greenback, America should bolster its manufacturing prowess. It doesn't have the workers and infrastructure needed to make Nike and Ralph Laurenproducts, but it can and should be manufacturing more products higher up the value chain, where China and Vietnam can't compete. Instead of trying to blame China's currency policies for America's problems (I am still not sure how Bernanke seems to forget that the global crisis started because of irresponsible regulatory oversight and easy credit in the U.S., since he became a member of the Fed's Board of Governors in 2002), the Federal Reserve chairman needs to look at quelling America's economic demons. There are no easy answers. Fixing those problems will be painful and politically difficult and may cause unemployment to spike and the equity markets to drop. But it has to be done. Unless Bernanke learns as Johnny's parents did that tough love works better than throwing money at problems, I am very concerned that America's addiction to debt will continue to damage the global economy.’
Who Will Any Form of Intermediate Term Wealth Effect Really
Help? [ The so-called ‘wealth effect touted by
no-recession helicopter ben‘ is just a continuation of the fraudulent wall
street bailout / subsidization churn-and-earn scam / fraud. Bill Fleckenstein Has Some Thoughts On
QE2: “These Idiots Think We Can Print Our Way To Prosperity” ( I disagree! I believe they are well aware
of the folly of their fraudulent and ultimately disastrous approach but are, as
in the last debacle, creating a fraudulent bubble for the wall street frauds
and insiders to sell into, which they are indeed doing as we speak. (INSIDER SELLING IS AT RECORD HIGHS)
(Another Nobel Economist Says We Have to Prosecute Fraud Or
Else the Economy Won’t Recover As economists such as William
Black and James Galbraith have repeatedly said, we cannot solve the economic
crisis unless we throw the criminals who committed fraud in jail. ) ]
Fed to pump $600B into the economy (Washington Post) [ Listen to this total, absolute b*** s*** … from
no-recession-helicopter ben shalom or b.s. for short, bernanke, with green
shoots wilting on the vine … to his recent ‘better to try and fail than to do
nothing at all’ … Balderdash! … I hearken back to a distinction made by the
brilliant Peter Drucker who in emphasizing the distinction between efficiency
and effectiveness states that being effective means doing the right things,
clearly not the case here … other than frothing that fraudulent wall street
market with high-frequency programmed trades and debased dollars he can’t seem
to print enough of, and for all but wall frauds churn and earn profits as they
retain their fraudulent gains from the last debacle and this one, his policies
are nothing short of disaster for this nation and the world. That money going
into wall street pockets has to come from somewhere … guess. Remember,
america’s defacto bankrupt and the consequences for those continuing frauds on
wall street don’t justify the irretrievable costs! ]
In addition to a question for Bloomberg TV anchor
Betty Lui, who asked Bill to “admit” that “the markets were in a better mood
yesterday after QE2,” which is simply this: “Betty? Betty? Betty? How about in
summer 2008, 2007, were the markets in a good mood? Were the markets in a good
mood then?” Quite
right! The same pattern that preceded the last crash. Falling dollar, high
volume programmed high frequency trades to the upside creating an even larger,
gravity-defying bubble for the wall street frauds and insiders to sell
into. They’re not too big or important to fail and jail! Prospective
economic health depends on that reality! ]
John Hussman: Bubble, Crash, Bubble, Crash, Bubble... [ This really is the story and far worse
than the bad scenario presented herefter by Hussman in light of the debased
dollar and the inflated earnings and lower P / E ratios thereby, etc. ] Excerpt
from the Hussman Funds' Weekly Market Comment (11/8/10):
‘We will continue this cycle until we
catch on. The problem isn't only that the Fed is treating the symptoms instead
of the disease. Rather, by irresponsibly promoting reckless speculation,
misallocation of capital, moral hazard (careless lending without
repercussions), and illusory "wealth effects," the Fed has become
the disease ... It is difficult to interpret Bernanke's defense of QE2 as
anything else but an attempt to replace the recent bubble with yet another - to
drive already overvalued risky assets to further overvaluation in hopes that
consumers will view the "wealth" as permanent. The problem here is
that unlike housing, which consumers had viewed as immune from major price
declines, investors have observed two separate stock market plunges of over 50%
each, within the past decade alone. While investors have obviously demonstrated
an aptitude for ignoring risk over short periods of time, it is a simple fact
that raising the price of a risky asset comes at the sacrifice of lower
long-term returns, except when there is a proportional increase in the
long-term stream cash flows that can be expected from the security. As a result
of Bernanke's actions, investors now own higher priced securities that can be
expected to deliver commensurately lower long-term returns, leaving their lifetime
"wealth" unaffected, but exposing them to enormous risk of price
declines over the intermediate (2-5 year) horizon. This is not a basis on which
consumers are likely to shift their spending patterns. What Bernanke doesn't
seem to absorb is that stocks are nothing but a claim on a long-term stream of
cash flows that investors expect to be delivered over time. Propping up the
price of stocks changes the distribution of long-term investment
returns, but it doesn't materially affect the cash flows. This reckless policy
has done nothing but to promote further overvaluation of already overvalued
assets. The current Shiller P/E above 22 has historically been associated with
subsequent total returns in the S&P 500 of less than 5% annually, on
average, over every investment horizon shorter than a decade ... We are betting
on the wrong horse. When the Fed acts outside of the role of liquidity
provision, it does more harm than good. Worse, we have somehow accepted a
situation where the Fed's actions are increasingly independent of our
democratically elected government. Bernanke's unsound leadership has placed the
nation's economic stability on two pillars: inflated asset prices, and actions
that - in Bernanke's own words - should be "correctly viewed as an end run
around the authority of the legislature" (see below). The right horse is
ourselves, and the ability of our elected representatives to create an economic
environment that encourages productive investment, research, development,
infrastructure, and education, while avoiding policies that promote
speculation, discourage work, or defend reckless lenders from experiencing
losses on bad investments.’
Insiders
selling (into the bubble as preceded last crash), this is an especially great
opportunity to sell / take profits! Suckers’ rally to keep suckers suckered (easy for the wall
street frauds to do with just a mouse click / push of the button – and, they
know all those technical trade lines that are easy to program in this current
phase of the scam/fraud with the debased dollar). Keep in mind, the totally
mindless blather from the ‘cottage industries’ of and fraudulent wall street
itself in talking up lower P/E multiples when the same is a direct result of the
debasement of the dollar and the consequent manipulation / translation (not
real, see Davis, infra) which preceded the financial crisis / last crash.
Unemployment, trade, deficit, etc., numbers continue decidedly worse than
expected along with other negative data (and in the ‘wrong direction’, that
spin accorded ‘down but not as bad as before’ b*** s*** ) yet the market has
rallied like no tomorrow with used home foreclosure / distressed sales, though
abated owing to ‘foreclosuregate’, the other ‘heralded’ good news. Moreover, the dumbo lemmings of Europe have
jumped on the fraudulent defacto bankrupt american crazy train propelled to the
precipice also as if no tomorrow. This is about keeping the suckers sucked in
with the help of a market-frothing pre-election debased dollar for favorable
currency translation and paper (but not real when measured in, ie., gold, etc.)
profits which preceded the last crisis, inflating a bubble as in the last
crisis to facilitate the churn-and-earn, particularly with computerized (and
high frequency) trades and which commissions they’ll get again on the way down.
There is nothing to support these overbought stock prices, fundamentally or
otherwise. These are desperate criminals ‘at work’. Even wall street shill, the
senile Buffett is saying we’re still in a recession (depression) [ Davis: ‘… all
profits are inflated by 10% (from falling, debased dollar) and that 10% is the
E that gets divided from the P and gives us a much better price/multiple to
hang our hats on and that gets investors to BUYBUYBUY …’ The bull market that never was / were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold ] This is a great
opportunity to sell / take profits (these lower dollar, hyperinflationary
currency manipulations / translations to froth paper stocks will end quite
badly as in last crash)! This
is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression.
The past up moves were manipulated bull (s***) cycles (at best) in a secular
bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the
prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders
commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street ‘programmed
computerized high-frequency churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as
in prior crashes ( widely reported, high-frequency trading routinely
accounts for more than 50% of daily U.S. equity trading volume and regularly
approaches 70%. )’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end
until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally
prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.The Stock Market's
Long Decline Has Begun Smith ]
To
solve the deficit, the numbers add up -- but not the votes ( Washington Post ) [ Geeh! A discussion of the deficit with a
reference to math … who woulda’ thunk it! I mean, that’s script material for
the next installment of ‘Mission Impossible’. ]The sudden proliferation of
deficit-reduction plans is a reminder that the deficit is, at its heart, a math
problem.
National / World
Drudgereport: US-SKorea
Joint Military Exercises Possible in Coming Days...
NKorea's
military command vows 'merciless' military strike against South...
Fires
artillery onto island...
South
denies seeking redeployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons...
Returns
Fire...
'Intentional,
planned attack'...
CHINA
WATCHES... WHITE
HOUSE CONDEMNS...
Russia
Sees 'Colossal Danger'...
IT
BEGINS
POLL:
Obama job approval sinks to 39%...
Woman
who told Obama her financial fears -- has lost her job...
Even
MoveOn.org sours...
Afghan
violence soars, insurgency expanding..
Helmand's
refugees disheartened by troops (Washington Post) [ ‘Gauge of success?’ Come on! What success
can be had? Greater defacto bankruptcies for the nato coalition members? More
death and destruction? Even if it were not true (that they are to blame) though
I believe it is, the u.s. / brits / nato will be blamed for even unimprovable
scenarios beyond their scope and control where even pyhric victories are not in
the cards (though that’s all they could possibly have hoped for). Indeed, a
geopolitical misstep of monumental proportion for the u.s., Britain, et als.
Then there’s the u.s. initiated resurgence of the poppy / heroin production /
trade … their raison d’etre. ] The arid province will be an important gauge
of success in the U.S.-led strategy against the Taliban. But refugees offer a
bleak assessment, blaming insecurity in Afghanistan on the presence of U.S. and
British troops.
The
Wall Street snitch pitch
(Washington Post) [ Oh yeah!
Laws are great on paper, but in a pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt nation
as america, just try to get them to apply them as opposed to the more lucrative
perpetration and cover-up (but the incentives are a positive). ] An
unlikely ad has been getting screen time in Manhattan theaters that cater to a
Wall Street crowd. [
October 15,
2010 (*see infra)
Steven M. Martinez, Assistant Director In Charge
Federal Bureau of Investigation, USDOJ
11000 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 1700
Los Angeles, CA 90024
Dear Sir:
I enclose herewith 3
copies of the within DVD rom autorun disk (which will open in your computer’s
browser) as per your office’s request as made this day (the disk and contents
have been scanned by Avast, McAfee, and Norton which I’ve installed on my
computer to prevent viral attacks / infection and are without threat). I also
include 1 copy of the DVD as filed with the subject court as referenced therein
(which files are also included on the aforesaid 3 disks in a separate folder
named ‘112208opocoan’). The (civil) RICO action (as you’re aware, the RICO Act
is a criminal statute which provides a civil remedy, including treble damages
and attorney fees, as an incentive for private prosecution of said claims
probably owing to the fact that the USDOJ seems somewhat overwhelmed and in
need of such assistance given the seriousness and prevalence of said violations
of law which have a corrupting influence on the process, and which corruption
is pervasive). A grievance complaint against Coan was also filed concurrently
with the subject action and held in abeyance pending resolution of the action
which was illegally dismissed without any supporting law and in contravention
of the Order of The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge, USDC, District
Connecticut. The files below the horizontal rule are the referenced documents
as filed. (Owing to the damage to the financial interests of both the U.S. and
the District of Congresswoman Roybal-Allard, viz., Los Angeles, the
Qui Tam provisions of the Federal
False Claims Act probably would apply and I would absent resolution seek to
refer the within to a firm with expertise in that area of the law with which I
am not familiar).
The document in 5 pages under penalty of
perjury I was asked to forward to the FBI office in New Haven is probably the
best and most concise summary of the case
RICO Summary to FBI Under Penalty
of Perjury at Their Request (5 pages) [
ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://albertpeia.com/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf ].
The correspondence I
received from the Congresswoman by way of email attachment (apparent but
typical problem with my mail) along with my response thereto is included on the
3 disks as fbicorrespondencereyes.htm . With regard to the
calls to the FBI’s LA and New Haven, CT offices: There was one call to the LA
office and I was referred to the Long Beach, CA office where I personally met
with FBI Agent Jeff Hayes to whom I gave probative evidentiary documents of the
money laundering which he confirmed as indicative of same (he was transferred
from said office within approximately a month of said meeting and his location
was not disclosed to me upon inquiry). The matter was assigned to FBI Agent Ron
Barndollar and we remained in touch for in excess of a decade until he abruptly
retired (our last conversation prior to his retirement related to the case and parenthetically,
Rudy Giuliani whose father I stated had been an enforcer for the mob to which
he registered disbelief and requested I prove it, which I did – he served 12
years in prison, aggravated assault/manslaughter? – and no, there is no Chinese
wall of separation – Andrew Maloney’s the one that prosecuted gotti).
In contradistinction
to the statement in said correspondence, there is a plethora of information
including evidence supporting the claims set forth in the RICO VERIFIED COMPLAINT (see infra). Such includes and as set
forth in the case, inter alia,
There is applicable insurance / surety coverage and neither LA, nor
creditors, nor I should continue to have been damaged by this brazened corrupt
and illegal scenario, which should be resolved in accordance with the
meaningful rules of law apposite thereto.
Sincerely,
Albert L. Peia
611 E. 5th Street, #404
Los Angeles, CA 90013
(213) 219-**** (cell phone)
(213) 622-3745 (listed land line but there are unresolved problems with
the line, computer connection may be the reason but I hesitate to chance
greater non-performance / worsening by their ‘fix’ so cell phone best for
contact).
----------
*The foregoing and as
indicated therein was previously send 9-14-10 but delivery confirmation was
flawed as set forth below and my inquiries to the u.s. postal service rebuffed
(I believe tampered with inasmuch as your office could not locate same). This
cover letter (9-13-10) is on the 3 disks with navigable hyperlinks to the
subject files for ease of reference, including the files in the RICO action as
indicated. (10-15-10) I spoke with Rose, FBI, ADIC Secretary, who indicates
once again that your office has not received the aforesaid and which can
reasonably be presumed to have been tampered with, and hence, a violation of
the federal statute concerning same. ]
-----
Food
banks swamped by demand (Washington Post) [ Oooooh! Sounds bullish (unlike
those other bank runs) … to the lunatic frauds on wall street this full-moon
luneday (Monday) … you know … ‘demand is up’ … riiiiight! … but the real question
is:
Are Stocks
Over Loved and Over Valued? [ Is the Pope Catholic? Do bears
s*** in the woods? … Reality’s short answer: YES! YES! YES! ]
, On Monday
November 22, 2010, 12:32 pm EST ‘Momentum and perception are the big
intangibles of the investing universe. Nobody knows exactly when the
investing masses' mojo will turn on or off, overheat or over
correct.Valuations, similar to gravity, are the big equalizer. In a world of
uncertainty, valuations are the one thing you can rely on. Getting
valuations right is one thing, figuring out when valuations will exercise their
gravitational pull on stocks (NYSEArca: VTI - News) is another.
Using Valuations as a Guide
When planning a
trip from point A to B, you need to know where A and B are. If you don't know
your destination, you will most likely end up some place you don't want to
be. Failing to prepare is preparing to fail.Fair valuations are the final
investment destination. If you invest in an undervalued market or stock and
have the patience to let the market do its magic, your investment will be
profitable 9 out of 10 times.If you invest in an overvalued market and don't
get out in time, odds are that your journey will end in tears.
Asking the 'Valuation Guru'
Charles Dow, the
founder of the Wall Street Journal and inventor of the Dow Jones Averages was
an astute student of valuations. According to Mr. Dow, a correct understanding
of valuations is the single most important ingredient to investment success. If
Mr. Dow was still alive, what would he say about today's market? Would he tell
you to buy or sell?Let's examine the most basic and probably purest measure of
value: Dividend yields.Unlike P/E ratios, dividend yields can't be fudged and
massaged. Companies with a healthy cash flow use their financial prowess to
attract and retain buy-and hold type investors with juicy dividend checks.The
dividend yield is expressed as a percentage of the stock price and can rise for
two reasons: 1) stock price drops or 2) dividend payment increases. As a rule
of thumb, the higher dividend yields, the healthier valuations.
Dividend Yield - Buy High, Sell Low
It's human nature
to want what you can't get. Current yields are low, but everybody wants income,
so investors are willing to risk the return of their money for return on their
money. Current yields are close to an all-time low, so it's fair to
assume that stocks are overvalued.The opposite was true in the first quarter of
2009. A variety of ETFs yielded close to or even more than 10%. The Financial
Select Sector SPDRs (NYSEArca: XLF - News) and Vanguard Financial ETF
(NYSEArca: VFH - News) paid more than 7%.Dividend ETFs
like the iShares DJ Select Dividend (NYSEArca: DVY - News) and SPDR S&P Dividend ETF
(NYSEArca: SDY - News) had yields north of 6%, and even
plain value ETFs like Vanguard Value (NYSEArca: VTV - News) and iShares Russell 1000 Value
(NYSEArca: IWD - News) paid more than 4%.The problem at
that time was that nobody was interested in yield. Investors shunned stocks and
yields like cats shun water. Within a week of prices bottoming and stocks
beginning to rally, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter recommended to load up
on dividend-rich ETFs.Here's the newsletter's March 2, 2009 recommendation:
'This counter trend rally will have to be broad and powerful in order to
relieve investor's pent-up urge to buy. Dividend ETFs with a higher allocation
to financials are likely to rise higher than the broad market. Some of the
dividend yields are quite juicy and can help to offset timing mistakes.'
Beware of the Yields
Trap
Since then, the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) has risen as much as 84%,
the performance for the Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) has
been similar. What about dividend yields?If the March 2009 lows marked a true
market bottom, dividend payments should have increased somewhat proportionally
to stock prices. They didn't. In fact, yields today are lower than they were at
the March 2009 bottom.In March 2009 the dividend yield for S&P 500
constituents was 3.6%. By multiplying 3.6% with the March 2009 low of 666 we
arrive at a dividend yield of 23.98 points. In October 2010, the S&P
yielded 1.97%. Based on an S&P at 1,200 points, this represented 23.64
points, 0.34 points less than at the March 2009 bottom.Hunting after yield
without considering the risk at current prices is similar to maxing out your
credit cards just to rack up frequent flier miles. The return comes at a
(long-term) cost.Beware of the Earnings TrapIn my humble opinion, earnings are more
than just a trap, they are a minefield. According to the numbers we are fed,
earnings have already surpassed the threshold reached at the peak of the
dot-com bubble and are projected to eclipse even the 2007 all-time record high
in 2011.If this doesn't strike you as odd, take a moment to examine the chart
below. Leading up to the 2007 stock market and earnings high, we had consistent
GDP growth (not historically great but steady). The real unemployment rate
(U-6, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics) was 8.4%.[chart]Today, GDP
is sputtering (and inflated by government subsidies) and U-6 unemployment has
more than doubled to 17%. For those who prefer to go by the media's more
palatable U-3 jobless number, it has soared from below 4.7% to 9.6%. Does that
look like the kind of environment that would produce record high earnings?I
don't think it would be presumptuous to wonder if financial engineering and
massaging the books has something to do with high earnings. Remember the 157
rule change which allows banks (NYSEArca: KBE - News) to hide real estate losses (see
June 2010 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter for a detailed analysis).Even when
assuming that current earnings are for real, the P/E ratio (high earnings
translate into a lower P/E ratio) is still historically elevated. Admittedly
not as much out of line as a year ago, but still high.
Don't Bet Against
Valuations
Buying into an overvalued market and expecting a long-term gain,
is like sowing seed in the winter and expecting to reap in the summer - it
doesn't work that way.Of course, over the short-term, markets can defy
valuations and make disciplined investors look like temporary fools. But, as
the 2000 and 2008 declines have shown, there are no shortcuts to long-term success.The
most intriguing facet of dividend yields and P/E ratios is that they tend to
pinpoint major market bottoms. All historic market bottoms had one thing in
common: super high dividend yields and ridiculously low P/E ratios.Based on
this historic clue, the March 2009 bottom looks more like a fake than a major
bottom. Just as ice doesn't thaw unless the temperature rises above 32 degrees,
the market doesn't bottom until P/E ratios and dividend yields signal that a
valuation reset has occurred.The December issue of the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter includes a detailed analysis of P/E
ratios, dividend yields, and two other benchmarks of value-based forecasting
plotted against historic charts of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones.A picture
paints more than a thousand words, and the featured chart shows how overvalued
stocks are and how far they have to drop before a sustainable new bull market
can begin.’
Reality check
for Fed forecasts (Reuters) - Reuters - The U.S. economy, to mix two
Federal Reserve catch phrases, may be disappointingly slow for an extended
period.
The 17 Things Worrying Investors
Right Now
LLOYD'S WALL OF WORRY
WEEK OF NOVEMBER 15-19
WORRY COUNT: 17
CHINA: Kickin’ it purely “my way or the highway.” Especially treacherous
on the rest of us as they are still building their highways.
THE PIIGS: Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. FYI: News of
their demise has been greatly…delayed.
CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER 49 STATES: Automakers – done. Banks – done.
Next on line at the bailout window: Muni Bonds
.
“Please step up to the white line.”
QE II: In the popularity ratings still more dear than a root canal but
not by much.
U.S. ECONOMY: This aging heavyweight looks to be making a comeback but
don’t expect any championship belts.
UNEMPLOYMENT: The good news is we added 151,000 new jobs. The bad news
is that's about 100,000 less than needed to keep us from sinking deeper into
the jobless quicksand pit.
TAXES: Extend and Pretend-- it ain't just for loans anymore.
HEALTHCARE REFORM: “If I were a cheese what kind of cheese would I be?
Umm…that would be Swiss.” Give it a year or so.
OBAMA ADMINISTRATION PART II: “Heavy lies the crown.”
XMAS 2010: Praying the Repo Man doesn’t tow away Santa’s sleigh until
after he brings some good cheer. Stack of $20s for me, KK!
CURRENCIES: No longer a race to the bottom. More like a slow bumpy roll
down into death valley.
HOUSING CRISIS: The reset button doesn’t seem to be working here. Might I
suggest bulldozers and bonfires?
INFLATION/DEFLATION: The Fed’s inflation wish will come true. And then,
like old luggage and my gut, it will be with us for a long time.
G20 MEETING: Granted I wasn’t expecting any Gold Medals for the U.S., I
wasn’t expecting a disqualification smack down either.
TERRORISM: I knew there was a reason I always hated changing the toner
cartridge.
COMMODITIES: Trying to wrestle them down with higher margin
requirements. You mean some people actually pay for these things?
HFT: High Frequency Trading -- a festering boil on our stock market but
nothing a penny transaction tax wouldn’t clear up. Dr. SEC, we’re waiting…?
St. Louis tops
list of most dangerous US cities (AP)
TRENTON, N.J. – St. Louis overtook Camden, N.J., as the nation's most
dangerous city in 2009, according to a national study released Sunday.The study
by CQ Press found St. Louis had 2,070.1 violent
crimes per 100,000 residents, compared with a national average of 429.4. That
helped St. Louis beat out Camden, which topped last year's list and was the
most dangerous city for 2003 and 2004.Detroit, Flint, Mich., and Oakland,
Calif., rounded out the top five. For the second straight year, the safest city
with more than 75,000 residents was Colonie, N.Y.The annual rankings are based
on population figures and crime data compiled by the FBI. Some criminologists
question the findings, saying the methodology is unfair.Greg Scarbro, unit
chief of the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting Program, said the FBI
also discourages using the data for these types of rankings.Kara Bowlin,
spokeswoman for St. Louis Mayor Francis Slay, said the city actually has been
getting safer over the last few years. She said crime in St. Louis has gone
down each year since 2007, and so far in 2010, St. Louis crime is down 7
percent.Erica Van Ross, spokeswoman for the St. Louis Police Department, called
the rankings irresponsible."Crime is based on a variety of factors. It's
based on geography, it's based on poverty, it's based on the economy," Van
Ross said."That is not to say that urban cities don't have challenges,
because we do," Van Ross said. "But it's that it's irresponsible to
use the data in this way." [ See the lists here http://albertpeia.com/listssafestdangerouscities.htm ]
Drudgereport:
Pessimistic Fed to slash growth forecasts...
Ireland Second Euro Nation to Request International
Aid as Banks Wobble...
Protesters break through front gate of PM's office...
Rescue Would Dwarf Greek Bailout...
Portugal on the brink...
Spain
Will Be 'the Biggie...
HANDS ON BOY
TSA WORKERS FEAR BACKLASH
GLORIA ALLRED: I LIKED BEING FELT-UP AND FINGERED!
Ireland to Seek EU-Led Bailout; Works to Avert Bank
'Collapse'...
WSJ: U.S. in Vast Insider Trading Probe...
Lame duck Dem governor in Iowa OKs $100 million in
raises for state workers...
BUFFETT: 'Rich' Americans Should Be Paying 'a Lot'
More in Taxes...
‘JFK
Deathbed Confession’ reaches #1 on Google Ahead of Ventura TV program Aaron
Dykes | Former Gov. Jesse Ventura appeared on the Alex Jones Show
today to inform the world about the earth-shattering info that will air tonight
on TruTV, prompting a #1 search term.
Go to following pages for
above links:
http://www.albertpeia.com/currentopics2ndqtr10108.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com
http://www.scribd.com/alpeia
http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm
You may post a comment on my blog on any topic: http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
NATO
members pledge to fight (to continue their)
terrorism (Washington Post) [ Come on! Wars based on lies, war
crimes, etc., and resistance / blowback called terrorism? Really! Nato’s almost
to a nation suckin’ wind! Yeah, defacto bankrupt like america, almost to a
nation they are. How pathetic! How tragic for the world! ] The U.S.-led NATO alliance declared
Friday that it will focus on antimissile defenses and fighting terrorism in
Afghanistan and "around the globe." Washington Post Foreign
Service Thursday, November 18, 2010;
3:42 PM MOSCOW - Russians are mystified. They can't quite
believe the U.S.
Senate might fail to ratify the nuclear arms treaty, and they see no good
from such an outcome… And think of how the United States - and particularly
Obama - would look, Rogov said. "The fact that
America can't deliver on its promises would harm its standing around the
world," he said. "And if START is not ratified, the [2009] Nobel
Peace Prize would look very funny indeed." [ War crimes, torture, illegal wars, pervasively corrupt, massive
frauds with global consequences, etc.; the world has looked … america and
wobama et als look quite bad indeed! ]
Audit:
Pension agency needs strategy for workload surge (Washington Post) [
Workload volume? I’d be more concerned with treasury revenue volume inasmuch as
this is a federal, state, nation, local, corporate (large and small)
catastrophe, current and prospective as promises greatly exceed resources. ]
The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation "should arm itself with a well
thought-out strategy for addressing surges in workload volume."
Bernanke
hits back at critics (Washington
Post) [ Mr. Irwin’s apt description using ‘full-throated rebuttal’ as,
hopefully, a very subtle shade of well-founded sarcasm and skepticism is indeed
welcomed. After all, there is an air of desperation about b.s. ben shalom
bernanke whose prediction of no-recession is to this day far short of the mark
(indeed, even according to that shill of fraudulent wall street, senile buffet,
we’re still in the midst of what’s now dubbed ‘The Great Recession’, which is
in fact a depression and soon to be an unprecedented hyperinflationary
depression at that. That bernanke now shifts gears if not blame for his
incompetence (he hasn’t the slightest idea what he’s doing other than helping
the frauds on wall street, an end in itself) by saying america can’t do it
alone is indeed very telling. Send the incompetent bernanke back to the ivy
league vegetable garden from whence he came. Abolish the fed! ] The Fed
chairman's speech at a European Central Bank conference amounts to a
full-throated rebuttal, a departure from the reserved tone he usually uses to
discuss monetary policy.
Sentiment Seems Excessively Bullish,
Watch The Stock Charts Harding ‘The market is in what is
usually its favorable season of November to May, when it typically makes most
of its gains each year. But it hasn’t been that way so far. Among other
worries, analysts are concerned that the market’s consistent annual seasonality
of ‘Sell in May and Go Away (until November1)’ has failed to work over the last
two months. The market topped out on schedule in late April and was down 16% by
July. This fall it began what is historically the worst three-month period of
the year, August, September and October, with a big decline in August, which
was the worst August in years. But then, usually negative September and October
turned out to be just about the most positive two months of the year. So can we
be sure November, December, and January will follow their historical pattern of
usually being the most positive months of the year? Or was the weakness that
normally takes place in September and October postponed to November and
December? (…ad…) November hasn’t started out well, with the S&P 500 down
roughly 3% over the last two weeks. So, analysts are watching potential support
and resistance levels. For instance, two weeks ago the S&P 500 had rallied
all the way back to the level it reached at its April top. It has now pulled
back from that potential resistance level, and in the process it broke below
the previous support at its 21-day moving average for the first time since the
rally began in early September.The question is whether it can break back up
through the resistance at that moving average and establish it as support
again, or if the moving average will now become overhead resistance that prevents
the market from making further progress.Interesting enough, the market
experienced a big triple-digit rally on Thursday that carried the S&P 500,
Dow, and Nasdaq back up almost to their 21-day moving averages in one day. But
the rally stopped just short of those resistance levels. So the question is
still out there. [chart] Normally, market analysts would not be focused on such
short-term considerations. But a situation is also in place that might have
intermediate-term implications, thus making how the market deals with the
short-term support and resistance levels more important. SEC filings show that
usually astute corporate insiders have been selling into the market strength of
the last few months at a near record pace, even as investor groups that have a
history of being wrong at market turning points (extremely bearish at market
bottoms and extremely bullish at market tops) have taken the opposite position.
For instance, mutual funds have a history of holding high levels of cash at
market bottoms and being fully invested at market tops, and they have stepped
up their buying in the last two months. Bank of America/Merrill Lynch reported
this week that its latest poll of large fund managers, conducted between
November 5 and November 11, found their sentiment to be the most bullish since
April, that they have invested just about all they can, now holding on average
only 3.5% of their investors’ assets in cash reserves to meet potential
redemptions, one of the lowest levels of cash on record. The latest sentiment
report by Investors Intelligence, which measures the sentiment of
investment newsletters, shows 56.2% are bullish, only 20.2% bearish, the
highest level of bullishness since December, 2007, which was a couple of months
after the severe 2007-2009 bear market began. And the weekly poll of
its members by the American Association of Individual Investors, showed
sentiment had reached 57.6% bullish last week, its highest level in a number of
years, higher than just before the 2007 bull market top (54.6% bullish), higher
than just before the top in January of this year (49.2%) and higher than just
before the April top (48.5% bullish).It plunged to only 40.0% bullish this
week, which had some pundits saying, “Ah, that removes the risk from the
investor sentiment side.” But unfortunately that’s not how it usually works.The
market was down sharply last week and the first three days of this week. So
sentiment would be expected to be less bullish this week. But once a warning
level of bullishness has been reached, a return to lower levels doesn’t usually
make any difference.For instance, at the bull market top in 2007, bullishness
reached 54.6% on October 11. The market had already topped out two days
earlier. The next weekly reading on the AAII poll showed a drop to 41.9%
bullish, and two weeks later to only 31.2% bullish. Those subsequent drops in
bullishness were of no importance, the 2007-2009 bear market was
underway.Similarly, at the April top this year, the AAII poll reached its high
of bullishness at 48.5% on April 15. It dropped to only 38.1% bullish the next
week. But that was of no importance. The peak of bullishness had been reached.
The market topped out into the April-July correction on April 23, a week after
the high reading.So, analysts are probably justified in watching to see if the
market can recover and break out above the potential resistance at short-term
21-day moving averages again.If not, and the potential top-out at the high two
weeks ago remains in place, those high levels of bullish investor sentiment
last week will take on more importance.’
No
stock exchange for old, new GM shares (Washington Post) [ Well, if this
headline stopped after ‘No stock exchange’ you got my attention (stamping out
those wall street frauds would be a real step forward) … GM stock, not so much,
not to rain on their parade. GM, Ford, and Chrysler in the face of stiff competition will have to cannibalize
one another, unfortunately, given economic realities. ] General Motors will be issuing new stock, a signal that the
company is emerging from the ashes like the mythical phoenix. Initial
Jobless Claims Rise 2,000 [ Now how is this good news at this point in the
‘no-recession’ (bernanke) / great recession / depression? Oh yes, that ‘not as
bad as expected’ dynamic. Then you have the fraudulent wall street shills, ie.,
the street, forbes, etc., talking this up as if reality as in the last bubble
crash doesn’t exist. What this is is a great opportunity to get out of this
fraudulent, manipulated churn-and-earn market that the wall street frauds and
insiders use to commission and sell into. And, now that they’ve gotten the
benefit of their IPO and the benefit of my doubt and without playing the role
of spoiler (with reality), sell that GM stock, if you’re smart. ]
Equities Update: Global Worries Keep U.S. Trade in Check Midnight
Trader 4:11 PM, Nov 19, 2010 --
UPSIDE
MOVERS
(+)
DELL gains on earnings.
(+)
MELA jumps on drug developments.
(+)
CRM continues evening gain after Q3 beat.
(+)
LVS gains as Moody's hikes credit rating.
(+)
ANN gains on earnings.
DOWNSIDE
MOVERS
(-/+)
F, GM trade mixed in wake of GM IPO, mixed analyst notes.
(-)
IRE down as focus on Dublin bailout persists.
MARKET
DIRECTION
A
slate of better-than-expected earnings reports from tech firms Dell (DELL) and
Salesforce.com (CRM) provided enough support to nudge up the Nasdaq on Friday,
but the broader market carried little of that upside enthusiasm until a late
buying binge sent the DJIA and S&P into positive territory. A move by China
to tighten its monetary policy and continued wariness over Ireland's
negotiations for an economic aid package out of Europe held markets in check
for much of Friday's trade.
China's
central bank hiked the reserve requirement ratio for banks by 50 basis points,
an effort to crimp inflationary pressures. Separately, Ireland continued its
negotiations with European agencies and the IMF, and all indications suggest
the country will take a bailout package - a move that will take some of the
European debt worries out of the spotlight in the near-term.
Looking
out to next week, U.S. traders will see a holiday-shortened week as markets
close Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and open just a half-day on Friday.
On Monday, earnings are due from Brocade (BRCD) and HP (HPQ). Campbell Soup Co.
(CPB) posts financials on Tuesday followed by Deere (DE) and Tiffany (TIF) on
Wednesday.
On
the economic front, data is packed into just two days next week, with GDP and
existing home sales due on Tuesday. On Wednesday, traders will get a look at
personal income/spending; PCE prices; durable orders; initial claims; Michigan
Sentiment; new home sales; crude inventories and minutes from the latest FOMC
meeting.
Elsewhere
in today's market, shares of Pfizer (PFE) and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) were
down following news the two stopped a trial of their experimental blood thinner
after incidents of increased bleeding in patients outweighed benefits for
patients who recently had a heart attack, or bad chest pain. The drug--named
apixaban--is being tested to stop heat complications in patents with acute
coronary syndrome.
Allied
Irish Banks (AIB) ADRs were trading lower after it said deposits declined 17%
this year as customers pulled money out amid the ongoing debt crisis in that
country and around Europe. Deposits at the bank--Ireland's second
largest--declined by about $17.8 billion euros since the beginning of the year.
The bank said it is increasing its reliance on monetary authorities amid the
challenging funding conditions.
Del
Monte Foods (DLM) shares soared on reports KKR (KKR) is preparing an $18.50 a
share offer for the company. Sources say the firms have been talking for some
time and were hoping to wrap up the deal before Del Monte reports its quarterly
earnings on Dec. 2.
Shares
of General Motors (GM), which provided lift to the market yesterday, traded
down modestly in the wake of its IPO pricing Thursday. GM advanced as much as
9.1% during its first day of trading since filing for bankruptcy last year. The
U.S. Treasury and other GM owners sold $15.8 billion in common shares at an IPO
price of $33 each, which was the second-largest U.S. IPO on record.
On
the earnings front:
--Cost
Plus (CPWM) says Q3 sales were $194.6 million, a 7.3% increase from a year ago.
Net loss was $0.38 per share, down from a loss of $1 a year ago. Q4 sales are
seen between $324 million to $330 million. EarningsWhispers says the consensus
is for $329 million.
--Dell
(DELL) was higher after the computer maker late Thursday reported its Q3 profit
more than doubled and revenue surged to $15.4 billion from $12.9 billion.
--Foot
Locker (FL) gained after reporting Q3 net income of $52 million, or $0.33 per
share, easily beating an adjusted $16-million gain last year. The Street view
was for a $0.17 per share profit, according to
Thomson
Reuters.
--Salesforce.com
(CRM) leaped higher after it reported Q3 non-GAAP EPS of 32 cents a share
compared to Street estimates of 31 cents a share. The company reported revenue
of $429 million compared to Street estimates of $410.46 million. Non-GAAP
diluted EPS in Q4 is expected to be in the range of approximately $0.27 to
approximately $0.28. The Street is at 28 cents a share.
Commodities
finished lower as economic concerns--mostly from China's move to slow its
economy--left gold futures fractionally higher while weighing on crude oil
futures.
Crude
oil for January delivery finished down $0.34, or 0.4%, at $81.51 a barrel. In
other energy futures, heating oil was down 0.95% to $2.27 a gallon while
natural gas rose 3.79%, to $1.15 per million British thermal units.
Gold
futures had begun a small rally in late trading but still ended fractionally
lower.
Gold
for December delivery finished down $0.70 to $1,352.30 an ounce. In other metal
futures, silver rose 0.5% to $27.04 a troy ounce while copper was down $0.01 to
$3.83 a pound.’
EEM closed today up 0.06%, or three cents, at $46.51
a share.
The PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ)
finished up Friday by 0.08%, or four cents, at $52.47 a share.
The Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB)
closed up today 0.80%, or 28 cents, at $35.39 a share.
The
Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF)
closed down 0.04%, or one cent, at $14.85 a share.’
Is QE2 Losing Its
Allure? ,
On Friday November 19, 2010, 1:14 pm EST A picture
says more than a thousand words and the chart below does just that. Take a
minute to study the chart, and you'll also learn that it takes only one picture
to expel a myth, regardless of how pervasive it is.The black line is the percentage
increase of the Fed's adjusted monetary base since January 2007, or the amount
the Fed has spent on quantitative easing and other fiscal maneuvers. According
to the QE myth, a drastically rising monetary base will increase money supply
and inflation.The grey line is the M2 money supply. To compare apples to
apples, M2 is also illustrated as percentage increase. The blue line is
inflation measured by CPI.There's really not much else to say about QE1. Of
course, we could add an additional thousand words of CNBC-fluff-like analysis,
but your time is better-spent examining other pressing QE related topics,
like:Did stocks rally because of QE1? Will stocks rally because of QE2?
[chart]
Timing is Everything
The second chart (quantitative easing and the big picture) plots the
S&P's performance against QE1.As you can see, QE1 came at a time (on March
18, 2009) when the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) plummeted 57% from its October high.
The Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI), Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) and other broad market
measures didn't fare any better.Needless to say, the market was extremely
oversold. After predicting a bottom target of Dow 6,700, the ETF Profit
Strategy Newsletter issued a strong buy alert on March 2, 2009. Stocks bottomed
on March 6. By March 18 (when QE1 became official), the S&P had already
soared 20%. [chart]
QE1 vs. QE2
Timing is probably the main difference between QE1 and QE2. In
terms of economic benchmarks, there hasn't been much improvement. Unemployment
has risen from 8.6% in March 2009 to 9.6% (U-6 unemployment has gone from 15.6%
to 17.1%). Real estate prices have failed to recover while consumer confidence
is about at the same level today as it was in April 2009.What has changed is
the stock market. The S&P today is nearly 80% above its March 2009 low. In
other words, QE1 was launched after the major indexes lost some 57% while QE2
will be released after stocks have already rallied 80%. You decide which
environment is more conducive for higher prices.
What's Fueling the Stock and Commodity Rally?
If you are a one-word-explanation kind of a person, the answer is
liquidity.Fed-induced liquidity to be more accurate. Right now, banks
(NYSEArca: KRE - News)
and financial institutions (NYSEArca: XLF
- News)
are swimming in liquidity. Where does the liquidity come from?It's a
complicated process, here's the short version (the longer version was discussed
in the November ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter):Currently, banks are allowed to
borrow money from the Fed at an interest rate of 0.25%. Of course, the average
American can't borrow at 0.25%, but the biggest banks can.
Guaranteed Profits for Banks
With the borrowed money, banks buy Treasuries. Long-term Treasuries
(NYSEArca: TLT - News)
pay about 3.5%. This is a guaranteed profitable trade. Pay 0.25% - get 3.5%.
There's no incentive for banks to provide risky loans to broke consumers if the
government offers you a no-loss option.In addition to the guaranteed margin
profit, the Federal Reserve buys back Treasuries from banks via its Permanent
Open Market Operations (POMO). Since Bond prices have gone up for most of the
year, this is another profit source for banks. Buy low, sell high. Another
government guaranteed trade. Where do all the profits go? Look around! A rising
tide lifts all boats. Domestic stocks, international stocks (NYSEArca: FEZ
- News),
emerging market stocks (NYSEArca: EEM - News),
broad bond funds (NYSEArca: AGG - News)
and commodities (NYSEArca: DBC - News)
are all up.
Fly in the Ointment
All things come to an end eventually. Even this perfectly legal and
unethical enrichment cycle the banks are feasting on.30-Year T-Bonds were the
first to decouple themselves from the liquidity rally. They topped on August 25
and have been going down since. On that very day, the ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter stated that: 'Our technical analysis along with fundaments suggest
that T-Bonds are getting ready to roll over.'Shortly thereafter, Bill Gross
stated that the 30-year bond bull market is over. Lower bond prices mean higher
bond interest rates. When interest rates rise, investors become less inclined
to 'gamble' with stocks.And regarding the POMO repurchase profit racket, lower
bond prices mean smaller profits for banks which translates into less money to
drive up stocks and commodities. This alone probably won't be a big enough
knock against the liquidity house of cards, but every crash has to start
somewhere - bonds may be the beginning.
Gold, Silver, Commodities and Inflation
Throughout much of 2008, 2009 and 2010, gold, silver and stocks have
been moving in the same direction. That direction was usually the opposite of
the U.S. dollar. A weak dollar means rising stocks and vice versa.If you look
carefully, you'll see that the dollar has found support around current levels,
which coincided with a correction in gold (NYSEArca: GLD
- News)
and silver (NYSEArca: SLV - News).
In fact, gold has been correcting even though stocks have continued to rise.
It's said that a fragmented market is an unhealthy market.This doesn't mean the
patient (= various markets) can't live (= rise) longer, but it is an early
warning sign.
Short-Term Effects of QE2
Leading up to today's Fed meeting, stocks have been rallying. If you
believe 'buy the rumor and sell the news' will be the case, that's exactly the
behavior you'd expect to see. Once the news is released, the big question is
whether investors feel they actually got the steak or just the sizzle.Sentiment
is extreme enough where a 'sizzle-induced' disappointment could lead to a
correction - a correction bigger than many expect.Of course, there are many who
believe that the ueber-bullish presidential election year cycle (October ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter, page 4) will kick in and propel stocks for the
foreseeable future.Either way, we find ourselves at a very important juncture.
The stock market has drawn a few lines in the sand, or trigger levels. A
breakout above trigger levels will lead to the next resistance, while a drop
below support may open the floodgates.
Tent
Cities, Homelessness, Soul-Crushing Despair: Legacy Of Decades Of Government
Debt, Mismanagement Of Economy The Economic Collapse | The safety net is getting awfully crowded.
National / World
Europe
roiled by financial crisis (Washington Post) [ European crisis? … Coming to
a state near you … made Lloyd’s List infra ….. ‘THE PIIGS: Portugal, Ireland,
Italy, Greece and Spain. FYI: News of their demise has been greatly…delayed.
CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER 49 STATES: Automakers – done. Banks – done. Next on
line at the bailout window: Muni Bonds’
Stocks Close Higher by Over 1.5%, but Where was the Volume? [ Running on
fumes, hopes, and b*** s*** alone. They’ve been there done that. ] ‘…The move
higher this morning was due to three catalysts: 1) China signaled that its
inflation-fighting techniques won't be as severe as feared; 2) Dublin indicated
that it was moving closer to reaching a deal with the IMF and EU on bailout
terms; 3) Philadelphia Fed Survey was better than expected which mitigated
worries sparked by Monday's Empire State Manufacturing Survey, while Jobless
Claims continue to show improvement…’
More Evidence of a Housing Double Dip Crawford ‘More evidence of the double-dip in housing continues
to trickle out. Corelogic reported that its home price index fell 1.8%
month-over-month from August to September and 2.8% year-over-year. The index is
now down 29% from the peak, but still slightly above the low reached in March
2009. Zimbabwe Ben has his work cut out for him to prevent home prices from
falling to new lows in 2011. From Corelogic
CoreLogic today released its September Home Price
Index (HPI) that shows that home prices in the U.S. declined for the second
month in a row after rising slightly for the first seven months of the year.
According to the CoreLogic HPI, national home prices, including distressed
sales, declined 2.79 percent in September 2010 compared to September 2009 and
declined by 1.08 percent [revised] in August 2010 compared to August 2009.
Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined .73 percent in
September 2010.
“We’re continuing to see price declines across the
board with all but seven states seeing a decrease in home prices,” said Mark
Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “This continued and widespread decline will
put further pressure on negative equity and stall the housing recovery.”
[chart] …’
Big
Money Sells Stocks, Pie-Eyed Bulls Rush In
Harding ‘Hey, who's selling those stocks? On the
surface at least the market and surrounding conditions look eerily similar
to the April top. The S&P 500 is falling back short-term from the
same level, breaking below the support at its 21-day m.a. for the first time
after a similar two and a half month rally began, with the market being spooked
by the return of worries about the debt crisis in Europe, and with investor
sentiment as measured by the American Association of Individual Investors at
high levels of bullishness and complacency. (The AAII poll reached 48.5%
bullish at the April top, and was at 57.6% bullish in its latest report last
Wednesday night).
But there are
differences too, the biggest of which is the new round of quantitative easing
by the Fed. However, it’s also interesting that the
recent high on the S&P 500 was a Fibonacci 62% retracement of the 2007-2009
bear market.
That’s
a level where institutions may start pulling out of equities, just as bullish
individual investors start piling in, and trading volume in Tuesday’s sell-off
was 30% higher on the NYSE than the average of the last several months.’
If
the Fed Can't Keep This Market Afloat, What Can? [ Nothing! Markets go up
and down (that’s what markets do), efficient markets doing so for good reason.
There is no good reason for the u.s. market (among many others) to be up, and many
reasons for it (them) to be down, fraud being just one of many. ] Nyaradi ‘It has been a tough couple of weeks, at best, for Dr. Bernanke
and his colleagues at the Federal Reserve, since they’ve been under nearly
unrelenting attack since their announcement of “QE2,” the new $600 billion of
bond purchases by the Fed.
First it was the Chinese and Germans at the recent G20 meeting in Seoul and
then, more recently, they have taken flak from economists and politicians
alike.
Sarah Palin led the political parade by issuing a “cease and desist” order
while a raft of prominent Republicans including Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul
joined in criticizing the Fed’s recently implemented plans.
Beyond that, a group of 23 well known economists including Michael J. Boskin,
(Former Chairman, President’s Council of Economic Advisors for George H.W.
Bush,) John F. Cogan, (Former Associate Director, U.S. Office of Management and
Budget in the Reagan Administration, ( and Douglas Holtz-Eakin, (former
Director of the Congressional Budget Office,) wrote an open letter in the Wall
Street Journal in which they said, “We believe the Federal Reserve’s
large-scale asset purchase plan (so-called “quantitative easing”) should be
reconsidered and discontinued. We do not believe such a plan is necessary or
advisable under current circumstances. The planned asset purchases risk
currency debasement and inflation, and we do not think they will achieve the
Fed’s objective of promoting employment.”
And finally, just yesterday, two prominent Republicans, Senator Bob Corker and
Representative Mike Pence, said that they were introducing legislation to force
the Fed to focus solely on inflation and drop its dual mandate of promoting
inflation within target levels and full employment. Pence said that the Fed
policy has “failed” and that the Fed should focus on keeping inflation low and
preserving the value of the dollar…’
Which
Country's Banking System Is Most at Risk? Crawford ‘Previously, we took a
look at European banks to see which one had the largest
sovereign exposure to Ireland. Here is a very interesting chart from the
Bank for International Settlements that shows total foreign exposure to Greece,
Ireland, Portugal, and Spain by bank nationality. This is very important
because it shows not just sovereign exposure but also total exposure (consumer
lending, lending to the public sector, etc). The information is current as of
the end of Q1 2010.The most alarming statistic from the report is that total
worldwide exposure to Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain amounts to a
whopping $2.6 trillion, which shows that any default could quickly collapse
Europe and have significant consequences for the entire world. The two
countries who should be praying for a bailout of Ireland are Germany and Great
Britain since they are they have the largest exposures. Better fire up those
ECB printing presses!
Click charts
[chart]
Here is a chart I made based on the BIS report which is easier to follow and
more colorful. One thing to remember about the BIS report is that it does not
include exposures of banks headquartered in the respective country.
[chart]
From the BIS report:
(pdf)
Banks increase exposures to Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain: BIS-reporting banks increased their total exposures to residents of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain in the first quarter of 2010, despite mounting market pressures on these countries. The $109 billion (4.3%) combined expansion brought BIS reporting banks’ aggregate exposures to that group of economies to $2.6 trillion. Total exposures to Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain increase. Total exposures to Greece grew by $20.7 billion (7.1%). The expansion was driven by a $21.6 billion (29.3%) rise in BIS reporting banks’ other exposures, most of which reflected an $18.1 billion (54.0%) increase in their credit commitments to residents of the country. By contrast, foreign claims on residents of Greece declined by $0.9 billion (0.4%). Claims on non-banks and claims on the public sector both went up (by $4.0 billion (4.7%) and $0.8 billion (0.8%), respectively). However, those increases were more than offset by a $5.7 billion (16.9%) contraction in foreign claims on banks located in the country. BIS reporting banks also increased their exposures to the residents of Spain and Portugal. Despite the fact that foreign claims on Spain declined by $10.3 billion (1.2%) during the period, overall exposures to residents of the country expanded by $17.3 billion (1.5%) due to a $27.6 billion (11.8%) rise inbanks’ other exposures. Meanwhile, banks increased their total exposures to Portugal by $10.6 billion (3.2%). Both foreign claims and other exposures went up (by $5.8 billion (2.3%) and $4.8 billion (6.1%), respectively). Spanish banks increased their exposures to residents of Portugal by $5.2 billion (4.7%), more than banks headquartered in any other country.’
QE2 Is Failing: Here's Evidence Loundsbury
[ I quite agree with Loundsbury (and disagree on the point by Roche, infra;
viz., there are many reasons for the market to fall including the
preposterousness of the failed fed approaches). There are simply an
unprecedented plethora of real reasons for the market to fall; ie.,
overvaluation, debasement of dollar, manipulation, fraud, a clueless fed /
no-recession ben shalom bernanke et als who don’t have the slightest idea what
they’re doing or what to do, a structural shift away from u.s., pervasive
corruption in and defacto bankruptcy of the u.s., etc.. ] ‘ I know I have seen
that QE2 is failing a number of times in the last 24 hours. In support of such
statements I offer the following two graphs from the 5
Min. Forecast: [charts]
Since QE2 hasn't really started yet, it might be more accurate to state
that the prospect of QE2 is a failure. However, I would offer the following as
the most accurate statement: There have been limited changes in stocks and
bonds since the plan for QE2 has been discussed. Stocks are still more than 10%
higher than they were at the end of August and bonds have not changed all that
much in the past few months as well. The 10-year Treasury yield at 2.85% as
this is written is below the rates seen in early August. There are many
possible reasons for the sharp losses in stocks and bonds the past several
days. The prospects for QE2 may have contributed but, in this analyst's
opinion, that affect is very marginal compared to other factors that are current
active. See yesterday's article for discussion of some of these market factors. There may be several reasons
to question QE2, as Steve Hansen has discussed here
and here and here.
But screaming that the markets have entered a judgment about QE2 effects on
securities markets before it has actually started is just plain poppycock based
on the current evidence…’
The
17 Things Worrying Investors Right Now
LLOYD'S WALL OF WORRY
WEEK OF NOVEMBER 15-19
WORRY COUNT: 17
CHINA: Kickin’ it purely “my way or the highway.” Especially treacherous
on the rest of us as they are still building their highways.
THE PIIGS: Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. FYI: News of
their demise has been greatly…delayed.
CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER 49 STATES: Automakers – done. Banks – done.
Next on line at the bailout window: Muni Bonds
.
“Please step up to the white line.”
QE II: In the popularity ratings still more dear than a root canal but
not by much.
U.S. ECONOMY: This aging heavyweight looks to be making a comeback but
don’t expect any championship belts.
UNEMPLOYMENT: The good news is we added 151,000 new jobs. The bad news
is that's about 100,000 less than needed to keep us from sinking deeper into
the jobless quicksand pit.
TAXES: Extend and Pretend-- it ain't just for loans anymore.
HEALTHCARE REFORM: “If I were a cheese what kind of cheese would I be?
Umm…that would be Swiss.” Give it a year or so.
OBAMA ADMINISTRATION PART II: “Heavy lies the crown.”
XMAS 2010: Praying the Repo Man doesn’t tow away Santa’s sleigh until
after he brings some good cheer. Stack of $20s for me, KK!
CURRENCIES: No longer a race to the bottom. More like a slow bumpy roll
down into death valley.
HOUSING CRISIS: The reset button doesn’t seem to be working here. Might I
suggest bulldozers and bonfires?
INFLATION/DEFLATION: The Fed’s inflation wish will come true. And then,
like old luggage and my gut, it will be with us for a long time.
G20 MEETING: Granted I wasn’t expecting any Gold Medals for the U.S., I
wasn’t expecting a disqualification smack down either.
TERRORISM: I knew there was a reason I always hated changing the toner
cartridge.
COMMODITIES: Trying to wrestle them down with higher margin
requirements. You mean some people actually pay for these things?
HFT: High Frequency Trading -- a festering boil on our stock market but
nothing a penny transaction tax wouldn’t clear up. Dr. SEC, we’re waiting…?
National / World
Drudgereport: House
Dems want $12 billion more in jobless benefits...
GOP blocks bill...
Troubled
California to Restructure Debt Sales...
Bond
Woe Bodes Ill for States...
House
Dems want $12 billion more in jobless benefits...
GOP blocks bill...
Fears
of new food crisis as prices soar...
House
ethics panel recommends censure for Rangel...
Rangel
weeps... ‘…"Failure to pay taxes for 17 years. What is
that?" McCaul asked, referring to Rangel's shortchanging the Internal
Revenue Service on rental income from his villa in the Dominican Republic. McCaul also noted the
committee's finding that Rangel solicited donors for the Charles B. Rangel
Center at City College of New York from donors who had business before the Ways and Means Committee…’
Preventing
a domino effect (Washington Post) [
Riiiiight! That ‘domino effect’. Nothing like a sentimental favorite
word picture to sell ‘policy / strategy’ as the ‘domino effect’ … I mean, it
worked so well for the Vietnam War. And, they even got a Nixon touting it. ] As Europe debates a possible Ireland
bailout, they are also worried about a more pressing question.
NATO
envoy: Karzai criticism 'not helpful' (Washington Post) [
Riiiiight! It’s only their country; their country being destroyed; their
country’s citizens being maimed and killed; their pain; their defacto
bankruptcy along with ‘misery-loves-company’ u.s. and nato allies, etc.. ]
The top NATO civilian in Afghanistan says that coalition forces have
"regained the initiative" in the war, but he added that President
Hamid Karzai's recent criticism of U.S. and NATO strategy is "not
helpful" in the lead-up to a summit in Lisbon.
QE2 Is Failing: Here's Evidence Loundsbury
[ I quite agree with Loundsbury (and disagree on the point by Roche, infra;
viz., there are many reasons for the market to fall including the
preposterousness of the failed fed approaches). There are simply an
unprecedented plethora of real reasons for the market to fall; ie.,
overvaluation, debasement of dollar, manipulation, fraud, a clueless fed /
no-recession ben shalom bernanke et als who don’t have the slightest idea what
they’re doing or what to do, a structural shift away from u.s., pervasive
corruption in and defacto bankruptcy of the u.s., etc.. ] ‘ I know I have seen
that QE2 is failing a number of times in the last 24 hours. In support of such
statements I offer the following two graphs from the 5
Min. Forecast: [charts]
Since QE2 hasn't really started yet, it might be more accurate to state
that the prospect of QE2 is a failure. However, I would offer the following as
the most accurate statement: There have been limited changes in stocks and
bonds since the plan for QE2 has been discussed. Stocks are still more than 10%
higher than they were at the end of August and bonds have not changed all that much
in the past few months as well. The 10-year Treasury yield at 2.85% as this is
written is below the rates seen in early August. There are many possible
reasons for the sharp losses in stocks and bonds the past several days. The
prospects for QE2 may have contributed but, in this analyst's opinion, that
affect is very marginal compared to other factors that are current active. See
yesterday's article for discussion of some of these market factors. There may be several reasons
to question QE2, as Steve Hansen has discussed here
and here and here.
But screaming that the markets have entered a judgment about QE2 effects on
securities markets before it has actually started is just plain poppycock based
on the current evidence…’
The
17 Things Worrying Investors Right Now
LLOYD'S WALL OF WORRY
WEEK OF NOVEMBER 15-19
WORRY COUNT: 17
CHINA: Kickin’ it purely “my way or the highway.” Especially treacherous
on the rest of us as they are still building their highways.
THE PIIGS: Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. FYI: News of
their demise has been greatly…delayed.
CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER 49 STATES: Automakers – done. Banks – done.
Next on line at the bailout window: Muni Bonds
.
“Please step up to the white line.”
QE II: In the popularity ratings still more dear than a root canal but
not by much.
U.S. ECONOMY: This aging heavyweight looks to be making a comeback but
don’t expect any championship belts.
UNEMPLOYMENT: The good news is we added 151,000 new jobs. The bad news
is that's about 100,000 less than needed to keep us from sinking deeper into
the jobless quicksand pit.
TAXES: Extend and Pretend-- it ain't just for loans anymore.
HEALTHCARE REFORM: “If I were a cheese what kind of cheese would I be?
Umm…that would be Swiss.” Give it a year or so.
OBAMA ADMINISTRATION PART II: “Heavy lies the crown.”
XMAS 2010: Praying the Repo Man doesn’t tow away Santa’s sleigh until
after he brings some good cheer. Stack of $20s for me, KK!
CURRENCIES: No longer a race to the bottom. More like a slow bumpy roll
down into death valley.
HOUSING CRISIS: The reset button doesn’t seem to be working here. Might I
suggest bulldozers and bonfires?
INFLATION/DEFLATION: The Fed’s inflation wish will come true. And then,
like old luggage and my gut, it will be with us for a long time.
G20 MEETING: Granted I wasn’t expecting any Gold Medals for the U.S., I
wasn’t expecting a disqualification smack down either.
TERRORISM: I knew there was a reason I always hated changing the toner
cartridge.
COMMODITIES: Trying to wrestle them down with higher margin
requirements. You mean some people actually pay for these things?
HFT: High Frequency Trading -- a festering boil on our stock market but
nothing a penny transaction tax wouldn’t clear up. Dr. SEC, we’re waiting…?
National / World
Drudgereport:
Bernanke's
'Cheap Money' Spurs Investment Outside USA...
AILES:
OBAMA 'DIFFERENT BELIEF SYSTEM THAN MOST AMERICANS'...
I
COULD BEAT HIM! … [ wobama
and co. have their fingers crossed since palin’s probably the only one who
can’t! ]
Euro
zone seems at a loss to stop the rot...
Berlusconi
rating at new low as govt crisis worsens...
New
French defense minister says Afghanistan a trap...
Iran:
Foreign planes violated airspace...
Exercises
involve protecting nuclear facilities...
Efforts
to Extend 'Tax Cuts' Falter as Talks Are Delayed...
$319
BILLION PAID IN JOBLESS BENEFITS OVER PAST 3 YEARS...
Fears
of new food crisis as prices soar...
Study:
Americans fleeing high-tax, union-dominated states... ‘Migration from high-tax states to
states with lower taxes and less government spending will
dramatically alter the composition of future Congresses, according to a
study by Americans for Tax Reform Eight states are projected to gain at least
one congressional seat under reapportionment following the 2010 Census: Texas
(four seats), Florida (two seats), Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina,
Utah and Washington (one seat each). Their average top state personal income
tax rate: 2.8 percent.By contrast, New York and Ohio are likely to lose two
seats each, while Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri,
New Jersey, and Pennsylvania will be down one apiece. The average top state
personal income tax rate in these loser states: 6.05 percent.The state and
local tax burden is nearly a third lower in states with growing populations,
ATR found. As a result, per capita government spending is also lower: $4,008 for
states gaining congressional seats, $5,117 for states losing them.And, as ATR
notes, “in eight of ten losers, workers can be forced to join a union as a
condition of employment. In 7 of the 8 gainers, workers are given a choice
whether to join or contribute financially to a union.”Imagine that: Americans
are fleeing high tax, union-dominated states and settling in states with lower
taxes, right-to-work laws and lower government spending. Nothing sends a
message like voting with your feet.’
Budget
agreement may be harder than anticipated (Washington Post) [ ‘They’ve seen
the enemy / opposition … the enemy is
themselves … Yeah … The nation’s defacto bankrupt with an economic / financial
structural shift away from america created by them and theirs as never before
in the history of the u.s. with the most dour and negative implications.
Pervasive corruption, incompetence, fraud, etc., has destroyed this country.
The market will ultimately do what they don’t. They’ve seen the enemy …
themselves! ]The leaders of the president's fiscal commission come under fire
from the panel's own members.
Lenders,
AGs in talks over foreclosure fund (Washington Post) [ Wow! Yet
another fund! If you think this is a mess, just wait for the muni (ain’t so
puny) bond crisis next up …
The 17 Things Worrying Investors
Right Now
LLOYD'S WALL OF WORRY
WEEK OF NOVEMBER 15-19
WORRY COUNT: 17
CALIFORNIA
AND THE OTHER 49 STATES: Automakers
– done. Banks – done. Next on line at the bailout window: Muni Bonds
.
“Please step up to the white line.”
CHINA: Kickin’ it purely “my way or the highway.” Especially treacherous
on the rest of us as they are still building their highways.
THE PIIGS: Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. FYI: News of
their demise has been greatly…delayed.
QE II: In the popularity ratings still more dear than a root canal but
not by much.
U.S. ECONOMY: This aging heavyweight looks to be making a comeback but
don’t expect any championship belts.
UNEMPLOYMENT: The good news is we added 151,000 new jobs. The bad news
is that's about 100,000 less than needed to keep us from sinking deeper into
the jobless quicksand pit.
TAXES: Extend and Pretend-- it ain't just for loans anymore.
HEALTHCARE REFORM: “If I were a cheese what kind of cheese would I be?
Umm…that would be Swiss.” Give it a year or so.
OBAMA ADMINISTRATION PART II: “Heavy lies the crown.”
XMAS 2010: Praying the Repo Man doesn’t tow away Santa’s sleigh until
after he brings some good cheer. Stack of $20s for me, KK!
CURRENCIES: No longer a race to the bottom. More like a slow bumpy roll
down into death valley.
HOUSING CRISIS: The reset button doesn’t seem to be working here. Might I
suggest bulldozers and bonfires?
INFLATION/DEFLATION: The Fed’s inflation wish will come true. And then,
like old luggage and my gut, it will be with us for a long time.
G20 MEETING: Granted I wasn’t expecting any Gold Medals for the U.S., I
wasn’t expecting a disqualification smack down either.
TERRORISM: I knew there was a reason I always hated changing the toner
cartridge.
COMMODITIES: Trying to wrestle them down with higher margin requirements.
You mean some people actually pay for these things?
HFT: High Frequency Trading -- a festering boil on our stock market but
nothing a penny transaction tax wouldn’t clear up. Dr. SEC, we’re waiting…?
] Proposal would help banks avoid court challenges and aid state
investigators in efforts to seek relief for homeowners who were wronged,
officials said.
Markets Hit
Vertical Drop: Dave's Daily ‘Markets followed-on Monday's
malaise with heavy selling tied to worries from China that inflation was
getting out of control. This caused commodity markets to implode. It was
reported the Chinese government was dumping stockpiles of grains and meats on
markets to drive prices lower. The commodity exchanges have increased precious
metals margins twice in the last week which usually stems rallies and that
continued this week. Furthermore, investors
are having second thoughts about the Fed's QE policies as they become more
concerned with China's moves in the opposite direction. It just shows how
leadership is changing in the 21st century. Emerging Market stocks
well-tied to commodity markets and with more volatility anyway fell harder than
other markets. Earnings were coming in roughly as expected from powerhouses
like HD and WMT. Meanwhile Industrial Production was weaker than expected and
the PPI was up less than expected (and, yes the laughable "core" rate
was down). Bonds rallied, reversing previous declines, in perhaps a brief
flight to safety.
It seems clear that our DeMark sequential weekly 9 counts well illustrated here
many times have once again called an exit correctly with many such views on
November 5th... ‘
QE2
Is Failing: Here's Evidence Loundsbury [ I quite agree with
Loundsbury (and disagree on the point by Roche, infra; viz., there are many
reasons for the market to fall including the preposterousness of the failed fed
approaches). There are simply an unprecedented plethora of real reasons for the
market to fall; ie., overvaluation, debasement of dollar, manipulation, fraud,
a clueless fed / no-recession ben shalom bernanke et als who don’t have the
slightest idea what they’re doing or what to do, a structural shift away from
u.s., pervasive corruption in and defacto bankruptcy of the u.s., etc.. ] ‘ I know I have seen
that QE2 is failing a number of times in the last 24 hours. In support of such
statements I offer the following two graphs from the 5
Min. Forecast:
[charts] Since QE2 hasn't really
started yet, it might be more accurate to state that the prospect of QE2 is a
failure. However, I would offer the following as the most accurate statement:
There have been limited changes in stocks and bonds since the plan for QE2 has
been discussed. Stocks are still more than 10% higher than they were at the end
of August and bonds have not changed all that much in the past few months as
well. The 10-year Treasury yield at 2.85% as this is written is below the rates
seen in early August. There are many possible reasons for the sharp losses in
stocks and bonds the past several days. The prospects for QE2 may have
contributed but, in this analyst's opinion, that affect is very marginal
compared to other factors that are current active. See yesterday's article for
discussion of some of these market factors.
There may be several reasons to question QE2, as Steve Hansen has discussed here and here and here. But screaming that the markets
have entered a judgment about QE2 effects on securities markets before it has
actually started is just plain poppycock based on the current evidence…’
Is it Time to Bail
on Stocks and Commodities? On Tuesday November 16, 2010, 2:18 pm EST ‘According to the most recent AAII poll,
57.6% of investors are bullish, so why am I bearish? Well, one reason is that
pervasive bullishness has never really paid off. It didn't before the
tech-crash (NYSEArca: XLK - News) in 2000, it didn't before the
real estate crash in 2005, and didn't before the financial led crash (NYSEArca:
XLF - News) in 2007. But - and that's a big
but - I have to admit, something is different this time around. What is it?
Does the Market See a Mirage?
It's said that the market discounts the future and looks about six
months ahead. In March 2009, stocks turned up. Based on the market's foresight,
the economy should have started improving no later than the end of 2009.As 2010
is coming to a close, we notice that the economy is still stuck in a rut. Yes,
some indicators have improved, but in terms of aggregate net progress, there's
been little over the past year.Unlike the economy, stocks are soaring. From the
March 2009 lows, the Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI) has rallied as much as 77%, the
S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) as much as 84% and the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) as much as
105%. What was the 'futuristic vision' that propelled stocks and left the
economy in the dust?
Unexpected Doesn't mean Impossible
The disconnect between stocks and the economy was very pronounced
earlier this year. By April, many measures of sentiment had reached extremes
not seen since the 2007, 2000 and even 1987 market tops. On April 16, the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter stated: 'The message conveyed by the composite
bullishness is unmistakably bearish.' Referring to the low put/call ratio, the
Newsletter remarked: 'Once prices do fall and investors get afraid of incurring
losses, the only option is to sell. Selling, results in more selling. This
negative feedback loop usually results in rapidly falling prices.'A few weeks
later, a 'Flash crash' visited Wall Street and injected a healthy dose of
reality. Since the market was repelled by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
(a common retracement level for counter trend rallies), which coincided with
extremely bullish sentiment, I assumed that the April high would not be broken.
But it was. Why?
Liquidity Explained
The effect of supply and demand on prices is almost as well
established as the law of gravity. While it's impossible to defy gravity,
there's a crafty group of people who've found a way to tamper with the law of
supply and demand. As it turns out, if you artificially inflate demand, prices
will rise. The only organization big enough to pull off such a stunt is the
Fed. And as unethical as it may seem, the Fed is using (as in rewarding) banks
(NYSEArca: KBE - News) to do just that. The image below
illustrates how quantitative easing (QE2) is designed to inflate asset prices.
In short, via QE2 the Federal Reserve injects fresh money into banks. Since
banks are not lending (there's just been another drop in consumer loans), they
use the money to buy assets across the board (the November issue of the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter includes a detailed analysis of this process and the
long-term effect on asset prices). [Chart] Trading volume has been historically low, so the effect of
extra liquidity ($105 billion over the next month) is magnified. Extra
liquidity is the only explanation for the rare phenomenon of all asset classes
rising at the same time. Do you remember the purpose of asset allocation and
diversification? Asset classes boom and bust at various cycles ... Not lately.
Most asset classes rise and fall in tandem. That is as unhealthy as it is
historically unusual…Is the Fed's open money spigot enough reason to turn
bullish? To me it isn't. In fact, I can't think of a single government law,
rule or incentive that hasn't backfired in some way, at some time. QE2 is
likely to be no different. Up until last week, U.S. stocks, international
stocks (NYSEArca: VT - News), emerging market stocks
(NYSEArca: EEM - News), commodities (NYSEArca: GSG - News), gold (NYSEArca: GLD - News) and silver (NYSEArca: SLV - News) were rising in sync. Now, the
three outrageously contrarian predictions I shared via the ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter aren't that outrageous anymore. The three predictions were: 1) A
rising dollar 2) A falling or correction stock market 3) A falling or
correcting commodity market…What caused and triggered the post 2007 meltdown?
Easy credit fueled unsustainable growth for decades and falling real estate
prices caused the collapse. The sub-prime mortgage debacle extends far beyond
the mortgage market (worth about $10 trillion). Since sub-prime mortgages have
been repacked, tranched, and leveraged many times over, the total problem is
much bigger. The only way to recover real estate losses is for real estate prices
to return to their 2006 highs. This isn't happening. Since the home buying tax
credit expired, home prices have fallen 0.2% year-over-year, while the number
of homes sold plummeted more than 25% compared to last quarter. In addition to
rising real estate prices, I'd need to see falling unemployment. Not just the
media's favorite headline jobless number (currently 9.6%), but real
unemployment. The main reason unemployment has at least been stable is due to a
shrinking labor pool, otherwise even the rosy 9.6% would be above 10%. Since a
recovery in real estate prices and a decline in unemployment would not
completely deal with the issue of over valuation, I would only become a
cautious bull.
How to Navigate this Market
No doubt, the Fed's outright manipulation of the market is more than
just a tempest in a teapot.' Various indicators (in particular sentiment)
seem to have been skewed by the massive inflow of indiscriminate dollars.
Nevertheless, as the post April 2010 performance shows (including the 'Flash
Crash'), the market has not become entirely immune to its own forces. The Fed
is simply creating a bigger … bubble…’
Market Sell-Off:
The Realization That QE Is Not Inflationary Roche [ Again, Mr. Roche is not quite correct as to
why, but correct as to the fed’s failure and sell-off nevertheless, the reasons
for which are still extant and further downside in the offing. ] ‘The QE trade
is unwinding in dramatic fashion as the market slowly realizes that QE is not
in any way inflationary. As I mentioned last week the smart money markets
(fixed income and FX) were foreshadowing this as early as last week. The air
pocket created by Ben Bernanke created an incredible trading opportunity for
investors who weren’t blinded by confidence in the Federal Reserve. Just two
weeks ago I said:
Would add (to shorts) into any move
over 1200. Would LOVE to see 1220.
My position is that the market is
misinterpreting the economic impact of QE in the long-term. My market position
has always been that we could rally to these levels and that at these levels
the market has become overly optimistic. If I am wrong I will lose some money
and move on. It’s part of the business.
Like clockwork the market touched 1220,
bounced and sold-off. The carnage across markets is broad. The only thing
rallying is volatility, USD and US treasuries. In essence, the leveraged QE
inflation trade is collapsing. You can thank Ben Bernanke for this. When you
create distortions in the market you get volatility, uncertainty and ultimately
a collapse in prices. Keeping market prices “higher than they otherwise would
be” is not a recipe for economic growth. The most worrisome development is
dissension inside the EMU. Austria is now threatening to withhold their
contribution to the Greek bailout unless Greece can prove that they have
fulfilled their requirements for aid:
The cost of insuring against default by
Greece and the premium investors demand to hold the country’ bonds rather than
lower-risk German Bunds jumped on Tuesday after Austria said Athens had not met
aid commitments.
Five-year credit default swaps were 100
bps wider on the day at 950 bps, according to monitor Markit, while the 10-year
yield spread between Greek and German government bonds was 15 bps wider at 923
bps.
Greece has not fulfilled commitments
for its European Union-backed aid package, Austrian finance minister Josef
Proell said on Tuesday, adding that Vienna had not yet submitted its
contribution for December.
That’s not the only concern in the
markets. Municipal bonds in the US continue to crash as a market that was
priced for perfection now begins to price in some risk. Commodity markets are
being crushed under the pressure of failing QE and tighter monetary policy in
China. And ultimately U.S. stocks have finally succumbed to reality.
click to enlarge images
chart1…out
(Figure 1)
chart2
(Figure 2)
chart3
(Figure 3) …‘
Lynn Reaser: Significant
Profit-Taking Ahead
The Early Evidence: QE Does More
Harm Than Good Roche What
exactly has QE “lite” and the expectations of QE2 done for markets and the
economy so far? Two months following the initial rumors of of QE2 and well into
QE “lite” we can make some early conclusions:
1)
Equity markets have rallied, but this is of little significance. There is no
evidence supporting an equity market “wealth effect” according to Robert
Shiller (see here) and James Bianco
(see here). Bianco’s
research actually finds that the corresponding commodity price increases are
more likely to be a net negative for consumers. And even if there is a “wealth
effect” it only helps the rich because the middle class are only minority
holders of equities on the whole. Of course, this isn’t a crisis of the wealthy
so this looks like another case of failing trickle down economics at best. It’s
also worth nothing that stock prices are nominal wealth so intentionally
distorting prices from fundamentals is no recipe for sustained wealth. Keeping
equity prices “higher than they otherwise would be” only diminishes the Fed’s
credibility while also creating distortions in markets.
2)
The 10 year bond yield is HIGHER since the Jackson Hole
speech. The 30 year bond yield is up 50 bps since the Jackson Hole speech.
Therefore, there is unlikely to be a sustained refinancing effect and no
increased demand to take on more debt (not that this would work in a balance
sheet recession anyhow, but Mr. Bernanke fails to acknowledge that this is a
demand side problem). 74% of all consumer debt is mortgage based so it’s
baffling that they are targeting the short end of the yield curve. Bernanke
wants to stimulate borrowing, but his actions aren’t backing up his talk. He is focusing his efforts on the
short end of the curve where rates are already very low –
astoundingly confusing and misguided policy.
3)
Many commodities have rallied in recent weeks which will do nothing but put
pressure on input costs and ultimately make life more difficult for the US
consumer (assuming these costs even get passed along, which is unlikely due to
weak end demand). The consumer will either be hit with higher costs which they
can’t afford to sustain or US corporations will continue to be hesitant to hire
the millions that need jobs because they are too busy protecting their margins.
On the one hand, this one of the few certainties we have regarding QE – it hurts corporate margins by
causing a speculative ramp up in commodity prices. [chart]
4)
QE IS NOT MONEY PRINTING
[ It is here where Mr. Roche goes awry and is not quite correct. An analogous
example (of enabling), though not perfect, would be if the fed was purchasing
worthless driftwood at the base of the Mississippi or tumbleweeds in Texas
reflected only by accounting book entries does not change the effect of ever
more worthless Weimar dollar creation. ] so there is no reason to believe that
it will cause anything more than expectations of future inflation.
When the Fed implements a policy of QE they are merely purchasing an asset that
already existed and swapping it with a deposit. There is some debate over the
price changes before these transactions take place and whether the Fed is
buying at higher prices, but this is offset by the fact that the Fed is
removing a high yielding asset for a lower yielding asset. In this case, they
are removing 1.2% paper (on average) in exchange for reserves that will earn
just 0.25%. Remember, in QE1 the Fed removed over ~$47.5B in interest income
from the private sector. So if anything, this has a marginal deflationary impact.
5)
Borrowing didn’t pick-up after QE1 and there’s certainly no signs of a borrowing
boom in recent data. Of course, with real estate in the midst of a double dip
there’s unlikely to be a surge in borrowing in the coming quarters anyhow. As
Robert Shiller detailed, the “wealth effect” of a housing boom can be quite
substantial. With home prices now declining
again we’re actually seeing the opposite of a “wealth
effect”. In other words, the majority of Americans don’t feel better
because Wall Street rallies each and every day. They feel worse because the
asset they come home to every night, the asset that accounts for the majority
of their net worth, has declined in value. [chart]
So just what exactly does QE do for the economy? Even
the people who are advocates of it don’t seem to know and certainly can’t back
up their claims with any positive evidence. Meanwhile the media and its
misguided punditry are falling all over each other to spread falsehoods and
inaccuracies regarding this policy as they shower Ben Bernanke with praise for
trying something. I am not sure why Mr. Bernanke is worthy of any
praise. He did not foresee this crisis. He responded too late when it was clear
that a crisis was on our doorstep. And when he finally did respond he saved the
banking system and left the American public out to dry. Thus far the evidence
surrounding his latest tool looks poor at best and it in fact appears as though
it could be causing more harm than good.
As for the markets, there has been some interesting
action in recent weeks. It looks like the smart money markets (FX and fixed
income) have slowly started coming around to the fact that QE won’t cause a
dollar crash (because there is no interest rate effect and no “printed money”).
Meanwhile, risk markets (equities and commodities) are on fire as “buy the dip”
and “don’t fight the Fed” become the motto on every trading desk. The
divergence here won’t last and given the early evidence it looks to me like a
whole lot of investors are deep into the risk trade without the fundamentals to
back it up. They’ve placed a bet on a Fed Chief who has failed at nearly every
step of his tenure. A great deal of leveraged optimism has been priced into the
market based on this “non-event“. I do not
know if I have ever seen the market rally so much around an event that involved
more misguided and inaccurate analysis.
Mr. Bernanke has created dangerous distortions in
many markets over a policy that appears to have no real economic impact. He is
playing games with the markets in an effort to give the appearance that he has
not run out of policy tools. This not only calls into question the independence
of the Federal Reserve, but has to very seriously make one wonder whether Mr.
Bernanke is fit to run the world’s most important Central Bank? I have long
maintained that he was never fit for this position and in my opinion the early
evidence of QE only further confirms that belief.
How to Protect Yourself From the
Crash of 2011 Lichtenfeld ‘There’s going to be a massive stock and bond market
selloff in the first half of 2011.Not only that, the selloff could cause a
worldwide financial disaster, global market crashes and the destruction of
wealth that will make the popping of the dotcom and housing bubbles feel like a
mild inconvenience.
Why?
Because, quite simply, America is playing a dangerous game of
“chicken” with its national debt. And the ramifications are extraordinary. I’m
going to explain the situation and give you three ways to protect yourself from
this mess before it’s too late…
Debt Doomsday: Coming in May 2011
America’s debt ceiling currently stands at $14.3 trillion. This
is the level that, by law, the government’s debt is not allowed to exceed.
Trouble is, the government’s present debt has swelled to $13.7
trillion.
This means that at the current rate, we’re on course to smash
through that $14.3 trillion ceiling around May 2011 (although it might happen a
month or two later, depending on what budget cuts are enacted in the next few
months and how quickly they’re implemented).
So what will the government do about this? Same thing it’s done
almost every year since 1962: Raise the debt ceiling so America can pay its
bills.
Congress really has no choice in the matter either. If the
ceiling isn’t raised, we’ve got a problem. A very big one.
A Fistful of Dominos
Without Congressional approval for additional debt, the U.S
government cannot pay its bills – most notably, interest payments on treasury
bonds, bills and notes.
If America defaults on those payments, or even misses them by
just one day, the domino effect would be brutal…
* Domino #1: The
country would lose its AAA credit rating and those bonds, bills and notes would
no longer enjoy their status as the safest investments on the planet.
* Domino #2: In turn,
a lower credit rating would mean that the United States would pay higher
interest on its bonds in order to attract investors. Result?
* Domino #3: A tidal
wave of selling through fixed income markets, driving interest rates higher
still.
* Domino #4: Social
Security would be hit hard, as its funds are invested in Treasuries. Suddenly,
Social Security would have far less resources than just a day or two earlier.
* Domino #5: If money
is pouring out of so-called “safe” investments, you can bet that in that kind
of environment, the demand for riskier investments would be next to nil. Stocks
and financial markets around the globe would plummet.
So why is this year’s Congressional raising of the debt limit
different than every other?
To Raise or Not to Raise?
Simple: This year, some members of Congress have said they won’t
vote to raise the debt ceiling. And they may be serious this time.
Earlier this year, 38 Republican Senators voted against raising
the ceiling. However, they did so, knowing full well that they’d be outvoted
and that the limit would be raised despite their “objections.” That way, they
could return to their Congressional districts, claiming some semblance of
fiscal responsibility.
Their vote didn’t matter so much back then… but with the
Republicans having wrestled control of the House of Representatives last week,
it sure does now.
It throws up an interesting dilemma. The Republicans – and
particularly the Tea Party candidates who ran on a platform of cutting spending
and the deficit – will have a very difficult choice to make. Either go back on
their word and vote for an increase in the debt ceiling, or vote against it and
run the risk of financial calamity.
It’s still early, but some Senators are already threatening to
vote “no.”
* Senator-elect Rand
Paul of Kentucky has indicated that he won’t vote in favor of raising the debt
ceiling.
* South Carolina
Senator Jim DeMint said he won’t vote to raise the limit unless it’s combined
with some plan to balance the budget, return to 2008 spending levels and repeal
President Obama’s healthcare plan.
* When asked if he’d
vote against a debt ceiling increase, even if it leads to a government
shutdown, Utah Senator-elect Mike Lee answered, “It’s an inconvenience. It
would be frustrating to many people and it’s not a great thing, yet at the same
time, it’s not something we can rule out.”
* And Republican
National Committee Chairman Michael Steele told CNN, “We’re not going to
compromise on raising more debt or the debt ceiling.”
This may be a dangerous political strategy…
History Repeating? Not Likely…
In 1995, the Republicans threatened President Clinton with
shutting down the government if he didn’t agree to their budget. Clinton vowed
that he’d never agree to it, even if his approval rating fell to 5%.
He won, too. The government did in fact shut down and the
Republicans were the focal point of America’s anger. President Clinton’s
approval numbers actually went up.
Flash forward to today. President Obama is likely aware of this
history. And while he may be willing to negotiate on spending cuts, he will not
repeal healthcare reform, which is the hallmark of his Presidency.
For Obama, though, the situation in 2011 will be much worse than
it was for Clinton in 1995. I’m talking about a meltdown in the stock and bond
markets.
Bill Busting… Washington Style
Bruce Bartlett, a former advisor to President Reagan and deputy
assistant secretary for economic policy at the Treasury Department under
President George H.W. Bush, recently stated, “You introduce even the tiniest
little bit of doubt into the minds of ultra-conservative investors and that’s
potentially disastrous. It hurts our ability to raise money without a risk
premium.”
Representative John Boehner, the new Speaker of the House,
appears to be more realistic than his colleagues in the Senate. He’s indicated
that he’d vote for raising the debt ceiling as long as it accompanies spending
reductions.
The bottom line, though, is this: The Senate likely doesn’t have
the votes to defeat a bill to raise the debt ceiling, while the House does.
And in the end, it doesn’t matter. The bill doesn’t have to be
defeated. A filibuster accomplishes the same thing. Don’t forget, this bill
must be passed by the date we hit the ceiling, otherwise the government goes
into default. It’s not something that can be put off until later.
So, in fact, a filibuster is even more powerful than a “no”
vote. And the mere threat of a filibuster could spook investors badly enough to
sell first and ask questions later.
You need to go about protecting yourself as soon as possible…
Protect Yourself From America’s Debt Showdown
There are a few investments that will likely do well in the
chaotic environment I just described…
* Gold: The resilient yellow metal should soar as the U.S.
dollar sinks and investors flee to safety. If you don’t want to own the metal
itself, you can buy the SPDR Gold Shares Trust (NYSE: GLD) ETF, which serves as
a close proxy to the price of gold bullion.
* Short Treasuries
(Option 1): Consider the ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (NYSE: TBF), which
aims for a 100% inverse correlation to the Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Bond
Index.
* Short Treasuries
(Option 2): If you’re a more aggressive investor, take a look at the ProShares
UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (NYSE: TBT). It seeks to obtain results that are
double the inverse daily performance of the Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury
Bond Index. So if the index falls 10%, the ETF should gain about 20%...'
Contrarian
Ideas Are Starting to Show 'Teeth' , On Wednesday November 10, 2010, 7:25 pm
EST If you've lost money over
the past 10 years, this statement may seem like a personal assault: 'Timing the
market is easy and profitable.' That's the implied conclusion from a recent
TrimTabs study. What's the recipe? A recent Wall Street Journal article drew
this lesson from the study: 'Over the past decade, it was actually quite simple
to time the market. All you had to do was buy when the public was selling and
sell when the public was buying.' Naturally, going against the crowd is easier
said than done. That's why it's often said that successful investing is simple,
but it isn't easy. Good investment opportunities come along only so often. Now
seems to be the time. A good opportunity offers more profit potential than risk
of losses.
Do the Opposite 'Buy when the public was selling and sell when
the public was buying,' was the Wall Street Journal's conclusion. So, what's
the public doing right now? The public - this includes individual investors and
Wall Street - is buying everything. Look around you, the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC),
Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI), Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC), small caps (NYSEArca: IWM - News), mid caps (NYSEArca: MDY - News), international stocks (NYSEArca: EFA - News), emerging markets (NYSEArca: EEM - News), bonds (NYSEArca: AGG - News), gold (NYSEArca: GLD - News), silver (NYSEArca: SLV - News), and many other commodities
(NYSEArca: DBC - News) are up, up, up. Meanwhile, the
U.S. dollar (NYSEArca: UUP - News) is down. According to Wall Street
and the media, the investment universe is full of profit sweet spots. Stocks
right now are a win-win scenario, at least so they say. Any bad news is viewed
to bring about more quantitative easing and is, therefore, good news and good
news is good news anyway. Gold is another sweet spot. There's no need to worry
about inflation or deflation. Gold is sure to profit either way, or so they
say. From a fundamental point of view, gold is as sound an investment today as
real estate was a few years ago. Of course with gold, this time is different.
Isn't it always? The U.S. dollar is doomed because more quantitative easing
(more dollars in circulation) will reduce the value of the current dollars in
the system. The government doesn't care if the dollar falls to oblivion, so why
should you?
Engrained Opinions Actually, there's a good reason to watch
what's going on with the dollar. All the assets mentioned above (stocks, bonds
and commodities) are denominated in dollars. A cheap dollar means higher prices
and vice versa. Over the past five months, the U.S. Dollar Index dropped as
much as 15%. Interestingly, it's after a 15% slide that the greenback has
become despised. Investors dislike the dollar as much today as they did
in late 2009 when it was about to lose its reserve currency status. At that
time, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter went out on a limb and predicted a
major U.S. dollar rally. From November 2009 to June 2010, the dollar soared as
much as 20%, a diabolical move for currencies. In June, when fears about Europe
and a crumbling euro currency made the rounds (and optimism surrounding the
dollar was plentiful), the newsletter called for a dollar correction.
Prediction #1 - The Dollar will Rally This correction has
morphed into a decline pervasive enough to push dollar sentiment to an extreme
that, historically, has foreshadowed significant turnarounds. The notion
of a trend reversal is confirmed by technical indicators. The October 21
Technical Forecast (part of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter) stated: 'Last
week's dollar action was encouraging as the U.S. Dollar Index finished with a
green candle low on Friday and since pushed above the lower acceleration band.
That's what bottoms are made of.' Since then, the U.S. Dollar Index has rallied
above its middle acceleration band. (chart) As far as a candle formation goes,
those are the initial stages of a trend reversal. Once again, a rising dollar
is bad for stocks and commodities.
Prediction #2 - Commodities (Including Gold and Silver) Will Decline
Not only is the dollar way oversold, the commodity rally is stretched to a
point where a sharp and prolonged reversal could happen any moment. Net
speculative positions in many commodities are at record highs, as is the
percentage of bullish traders. We've seen time and again that extreme optimism
is unhealthy for any market. Albeit not a short-term timing tool, it's a big
red flag. Once underway, the selling pressure should affect nearly all
commodities, including oil (NYSEArca: USO - News) and agricultural commodities
(NYSEArca: DBA - News).
Prediction #3 - Nasdaq Should Lead Equity Decline Largely due
to Apple's stellar performance, the Nasdaq has been outperforming the broad
market. The Nasdaq's performance from here will be very telling.The Wall Street
Journal just reported that: 'No hype: Tech is again a market star.' Let's see
if the tech index can maintain it's star status. If it doesn't, watch out for a
Nasdaq-led decline.
Third One 'Free' - QE2 Won't Work If you took a poll on Wall
Street, 8 out of 10 Ivy League educated, Armani wearing, Mercedes driving Wall
Street Banksters would probably tell you that QE2 will work.The media agrees.
When September's jobless numbers went public, the figures were much worse than
expected, but stocks surged. Why? Associated Press headline: 'Faith in Fed
pushes Dow past 11,000.'When stocks slid on October 14, hope of QE2 kept things
from getting worse. AP headline: 'Stocks dip; Likely Fed move keeps losses in
check.'QE2 may end up working for Wall Street, but it seems not to have worked
for the economy. If it did work, why would we need QE2?Obviously, the rumor of
QE2 was enough to drive up stocks. Will the actual news deliver the steak or
just the sizzle?
In POMO They Trust The fact is that the Federal Reserve's
Permanent Open Market Operation (POMO) purchases of Treasuries have had a
direct and delayed effect on the market's performance. Certain purchases
translated into positive performance 89% of the time (a detailed performance
analysis and schedule of future POMO purchases is available in the November
issue of the).
Should You Fight the Fed? Will the Fed win the tug-of-war
against sentiment, valuations, and technical analysis, all of which point
towards a correction?If history is a guide, the market will win ... sooner or
later. One way of navigating the current uncertainty is via support and
resistance levels. A break through overhead resistance is likely to result in
higher prices, while slicing through support may open the floodgates.
NATIONAL / WORLD
Drudgereport: START ON STOP!
RANGEL GUILTY...
Old razzle dazzle doesn't save 20-term Dem...
Rioters attack UN peacekeepers in Haiti...
SHOCK POLL: ONLY 26% OF PUBLIC THINKS OBAMA WILL BE
REELECTED...
Emanuel: I never believed in bipartisanship...
Woman becomes nation's 1st transgender trial judge...
OAKLAND, Calif. – ‘A
49-year-old California patent lawyer has been elected as the nation's first
openly transgender trial judge. Alameda County elections
officials say Victoria Kolakowski beat prosecutor John Creighton 51 to 48
percent — a margin of nearly 10,000 votes — in the Nov. 2 election to fill the
vacancy in California's Superior Court …’
Guy Lerner's Bear Signal or Why Investors Should Be Cautious Now
Loundsbury ‘ Guy Lerner offers a market timing service at The
Technical Take. He has just put out a bear
signal alert. Here are some of the things he is looking at:
·
Insider selling has
moved to an extreme.
·
Rydex market timing
funds are extremely bullish (contrary indicator)
·
His Dumb Money
Indicator has gone very bullish (contrary indicator)
He also has a Smart Money Indicator which he has not
commented on in his latest release.
Here is a quote:
The "Dumb Money" indicator (see figure 1)
looks for extremes in the data from 4 different groups of investors who
historically have been wrong on the market:
1) Investors
Intelligence; 2) Market
Vane; 3) American Association of Individual Investors; and 4) the put call
ratio. The "Dumb Money" indicator remains extremely bullish for the
fifth week in a row.
And, to put what Lerner is saying in perspective:
Our buy signal was issued on August
19, 2010, when market participants were fearful, and with market
participants bullish to an extreme degree a bear signal is being issued here.
If the market hasn't topped out already, it should do so within a couple of
percent of the recent highs. Rallies should be sold and stops tightened up. The
market is prone to sudden sell offs. There will be better risk adjusted
opportunities to buy in the future.
Here is Lerner's Figure 1 (Dumb Money
Indicator): [chart]
Additional perspective can be obtained from the following observations:
·
The Dumb Money
Indicator has a weaker signal now than in April and, more importantly, is
weaker than much of the time from the March 2009 bottom to January 2010 when a
historic rally was in full swing.
·
The Rydex indicator
is well below the levels reached in January and April this year.
·
The insider
indicator is issuing a far stronger signal than anything seen in the last three
years.
So two of the three indicators Lerner has released are making relatively weak
calls, while the third is sending a very strong signal.
It is interesting that the AAII (American Association of Individual Investors)
investor sentiment survey reached 57.6% bullish, the highest level since
January 2007. This is widely believed to be a contrary indicator and is one of
the four parts of Lerner's Dumb Money Indicator. However, analysis has shown
that the track record for the AAII Sentiment reading as a contrary indicator,
while it does have some merits, shows some variability in past results when
bearish sentiment correlations were tracked.There are a number of reasons why
investors should remain cautious in coming weeks, independent of the investor
sentiment market timing calls. Among these are rumors of Chinese monetary
tightening, resurgent sovereign debt issues in Europe, a crashing muni bond
market in the U.S., an over-extended U.S. stock market following an 18%+ rise
in little more than two months, a steepening downturn in the U.S. housing
market, an earnings and outlook shock from tech bellwether Cisco (CSCO)
and worries that monetary policy can not make a significant difference to the
lagging U.S. economy. And that is probably only a partial list of things
weighing on the U.S. stock market right now and probably for several weeks to
come.’
Bulls
Blow A Huge Chance: Here's What You Need To Know Weisenthat
‘Hard to imagine bulls being too happy about today, when it looked like there
could be a decisive break from last week's hard selling. But first, the
scoreboard:
Dow: -10.52
NASDAQ: -3.44
S&P 500: -0.5
And now, the top stories:
ETF Data
Daily: SPY Bleeds $1.14 Billion,
On Monday November 15, 2010, 11:00 am EST ‘Investors pulled $1.14 billion out of the
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEArca:SPY
- News) on Friday, as stocks and
bonds pulled back for various reasons, not the least of which is growing doubts
about whether the Federal Reserve’s plan to buy $600 billion in Treasurys will
truly come to pass.The small-cap iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSEArca:IWM - News) meanwhile suffered $115.2
million in redemptions, and the PowerShares DB Agriculture ETF (NYSEArca:DBA - News) had $86.7 million, rounding
out the top three funds in terms of outflows.Overall, U.S. ETFs had $546.9
million in outflows, which, along with the stock market’s losses, lowered total
assets in U.S. ETFs to $966.33 billion.The Dow Jones industrial average fell on
Friday 90.52 points to 11,192.58, and lost 2.2 percent in the whole week.
Concerns weighing on stocks ranged from China slowing its growth to control
inflation, Ireland’s poor fiscal situation growing worse and views that the
Fed’s “quantitative easing” plans would debase the dollar and would thus face
opposition from U.S. legislators and global leaders.
Creations
On
the flip side, most of the new money flowed into two State Street sector ETFs.
The Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSEArca:XLF
- News)
and Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (NYSEArca:XLY
- News)
gathered $201.9 million and $163.9, respectively. Rounding out the top three
funds was the broad-based SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust
(NYSEArca:DIA
- News),
which gathered $112.2 million.
Top 10 Creations (All ETFs)
Ticker |
Name |
Net Flows ($,mm) |
AUM ($, mm) |
AUM % Change |
XLF |
Financial
Select Sector SPDR |
201.87 |
7,199.14 |
3% |
XLY |
Consumer
Discretionary Select Sector SPDR |
163.93 |
1,945.70 |
9% |
DIA |
SPDR
Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust |
112.15 |
7,989.65 |
1% |
XLE |
Energy
Select Sector SPDR |
91.19 |
7,142.63 |
1% |
VXX |
iPath
S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN |
87.76 |
1,947.55 |
5% |
IVV |
iShares
S&P 500 |
78.39 |
23,419.16 |
0% |
XLK |
Technology
Select Sector SPDR |
57.24 |
5,772.11 |
1% |
IVE |
iShares
S&P 500 Value |
48.06 |
3,915.57 |
1% |
FXE |
CurrencyShares
Euro |
47.78 |
457.31 |
12% |
EWD |
iShares
MSCI Sweden |
43.08 |
376.96 |
13% |
Top 10 Redemptions (All ETFs)
Ticker |
Name |
Net Flows ($,mm) |
AUM ($, mm) |
AUM % Change |
SPY |
SPDR
S&P 500 |
-1,135.78 |
87,104.38 |
-1% |
IWM |
iShares
Russell 2000 |
-115.19 |
14,128.53 |
-1% |
DBA |
PowerShares
DB Agriculture |
-86.65 |
2,327.88 |
-4% |
QQQQ |
PowerShares
QQQ |
-86.63 |
23,017.67 |
0% |
XRT |
SPDR
S&P Retail |
-71.42 |
352.64 |
-17% |
FXI |
iShares
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 |
-62.41 |
8,515.12 |
-1% |
EWG |
iShares
MSCI Germany |
-57.28 |
1,832.95 |
-3% |
TZA |
Direxion
Daily Small Cap Bear 3x |
-36.40 |
856.85 |
-4% |
IYR |
iShares
Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate |
-35.68 |
2,994.37 |
-1% |
IWV |
iShares
Russell 3000 |
-24.92 |
3,030.07 |
-1% |
ETF Daily Flows By Asset Class
|
Net Flows ($, mm) |
AUM ($, mm) |
% of AUM |
U.S. Equity |
-627.68 |
413,084.27 |
-0.15% |
International Equity |
80.16 |
271,637.23 |
0.03% |
U.S. Fixed Income |
-51.23 |
137,365.91 |
-0.04% |
International Fixed Income |
- |
6,766.88 |
0.00% |
Commodities |
-12.97 |
95,336.44 |
-0.01% |
Currency |
39.94 |
4,893.35 |
0.82% |
Leveraged |
22.74 |
11,618.35 |
0.20% |
Inverse |
-82.44 |
20,800.85 |
-0.40% |
Asset Allocation |
- |
487.12 |
0.00% |
Alternatives |
84.59 |
4,340.37 |
1.95% |
Total: |
-546.89 |
966,330.77 |
|
Top 10 Volume Surprises, Funds >$50 mm AUM
Ticker |
Name |
Average Volume |
1-Day Volume |
% of Average |
TAO |
Guggenheim
China Real Estate ETF |
64,763 |
699,190 |
1080% |
DAG |
PowerShares
DB Agriculture Double Long ETN |
482,931 |
4,039,250 |
836% |
IEI |
iShares
Barclays 3-7 Year Treasury Bond |
161,369 |
1,107,325 |
686% |
IEZ |
iShares
Dow Jones U.S. Oil Equipment & Services |
147,107 |
971,034 |
660% |
IDV |
iShares
Dow Jones International Select Dividend |
264,758 |
1,499,877 |
567% |
IHE |
iShares
Dow Jones U.S. Pharmaceuticals |
13,781 |
75,862 |
550% |
EWD |
iShares
MSCI Sweden |
322,013 |
1,653,594 |
514% |
FXS |
CurrencyShares
Swedish Krona |
14,039 |
72,024 |
513% |
IWV |
iShares
Russell 3000 |
326,511 |
1,521,712 |
466% |
BIL |
SPDR
Barclays Capital 1-3 Month T-Bill |
626,274 |
2,913,964 |
465% |
Top 10 1-Day Performers, Excluding Leverage/Inverse Funds and >1,000
Shares Traded
Ticker |
Name |
1-Day Performance |
1-Day Volume |
AUM ($, mm) |
VXX |
iPath
S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN |
4.78% |
18,696,979 |
1,947.55 |
VXZ |
iPath
S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN |
3.03% |
338,366 |
995.85 |
TFI |
SPDR
Barclays Capital Municipal Bond |
2.05% |
499,515 |
970.24 |
HYD |
Market
Vectors High-Yield Municipal |
1.91% |
160,947 |
213.53 |
PZA |
PowerShares
Insured National Municipal Bond |
1.03% |
304,607 |
621.45 |
IPD |
SPDR
S&P International Consumer Discretionary Sector |
0.63% |
57,429 |
19.81 |
ITM |
Market
Vectors Intermediate Municipal |
0.46% |
45,609 |
229.45 |
BSCH |
Guggenheim
BulletShares 2017 Corporate Bond ETF |
0.44% |
2,360 |
9.64 |
AGZ |
iShares
Barclays Agency Bond |
0.41% |
42,772 |
366.06 |
ZROZ |
PIMCO
25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury |
0.35% |
12,473 |
41.11 |
Bottom 10 1-Day Performers, Excluding Leverage/Inverse Funds and
>1,000 Shares Traded
Ticker |
Name |
1-Day Performance |
1-Day Volume |
AUM ($, mm) |
SGG |
iPath
Dow Jones-UBS Sugar Subindex Total Return ETN |
-10.24% |
430,455 |
60.70 |
AGF |
PowerShares
DB Agriculture Long ETN |
-8.30% |
6,850 |
3.22 |
FUD |
UBS
E-TRACS CMCI Food Total Return ETN |
-6.50% |
22,618 |
8.54 |
JJN |
iPath
Dow Jones-UBS Nickel Subindex Total Return ETN |
-6.15% |
32,522 |
14.69 |
DBS |
PowerShares
DB Silver |
-5.93% |
189,625 |
165.33 |
SLV |
iShares
Silver |
-5.87% |
57,133,074 |
9,229.36 |
SIVR |
ETFS
Physical Silver |
-5.83% |
717,474 |
376.26 |
USV |
UBS
E-TRACS CMCI Silver Total Return ETN |
-5.69% |
1,350 |
6.26 |
UAG |
UBS
E-TRACS CMCI Agriculture Total Return ETN |
-5.53% |
4,390 |
8.42 |
FUE |
ELEMENTS
MLCX Biofuels Total Return ETN |
-5.48% |
11,211 |
2.62 |
John
Hussman: The Cliff Excerpt from the Hussman Funds' Weekly Market Comment
(11/15/10):
‘Last week, the return/risk profiles that we estimate
for stocks, bonds and even gold declined abruptly, based on the metrics we
track. We don't know how long this shift will persist, but at present,
investment risk appears to have spiked considerably, and our estimates of
prospective market returns have deteriorated. The abruptness of the shift in
market conditions is exemplified by the weakness observed in Irish, Greek and
Spanish debt, as well as the plunge in municipal bonds (particularly, as Barry
Ritholtz observes, in CA issues - see the chart below), which was steep enough
to erase nearly a full year of progress in just three days. [chart]
On the NYSE, hundreds of stocks achieved new 52-week
highs, but ended down on the week, with technical evidence suggesting a uniform
reversal from a "high pole" buying climax. The percentage of bullish
investment advisors reached 48.4% - the highest since the April peak, while the
AAII sentiment poll shot to 57.6% bulls - the highest since 2007. Our bond
market measures shifted to an unfavorable status for yield pressures, putting
the stock market in an overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yields
conformation despite QE2, which as anticipated, has been met with fairly eager
offers from bondholders. ...
I've reviewed the valuation conditions of the stock
market extensively in recent months, emphasizing that stocks are not a claim on
a single year's earnings, but rather on a whole stream of future cash flows
that will be delivered to investors over time. At present, investors and
analysts who focus on simple price/earnings multiples (rather than modeling the
entire stream of cash flows) are placing themselves at tremendous risk, because
simple P/E multiples are being distorted by unusually wide profit margins. Part
of this can be traced to weak employment conditions, which have held down wages
and salaries. But there is more to the story - the rebound in profit margins
also reflects a heavy contribution from financials (which may be more
indicative of accounting factors than sustainable earnings), as well as the
tail-end of stimulus spending.
The chart below underscores the relationship between
high current profit margins and poor subsequent earnings growth. The blue line
shows U.S. corporate profits as a percentage of GDP (left scale), which is
currently just over 8% and at the highest level since 2007. The red line
depicts subsequent 5-year growth in profits, but on an inverted right
scale (higher values are more negative). In effect, it should not be a surprise
if present levels of corporate profits are followed by negative profit
growth over the coming 5 years. Indeed, the 2009 burst of stimulus spending is
most probably the only factor that has prevented profit growth from being
negative over the most recent 5-year period. [chart] ‘
Currencies
Flashing Major Warning Signs for a Significant Correction
Prepping for the Opening Bell: Pain and Sobriety Return to the
Markets, Waters Remain Choppy
The
Economy Will Not Recover Until the Economic Criminals are Prosecuted, and There
Are Real Investigations Into 9/11 and Other Government Failures Trust is
essential for a stable economy; Trust is currently at an all-time low;
Launching criminal prosecutions and real investigations is one of the main
prerequisites for an economic recovery.
Drudgereport: DANGER:
NY Fed: 'State manufacturing plunges'...
PRAVDA:
America conducts subversive activities in friendly territories...
THE
TERRORISTS HAVE WON
Airport
body-scan radiation under new scrutiny...
Government
in our pants...
TSA agents eject man from airport for opting out of 'groin check'...
'You touch my junk and I'm going to have you arrested'...
BIG
SIS DOUBLES DOWN: Scanners are safe, pat-downs discreet...
POLL:
Are new security screenings affecting your decision to fly?
MAG:
Abolish the TSA...
VIDEO:
Nude Protest in Germany...
Social
Security judges facing more violent threats...
Irish 'in
bailout talks with EU'... Gov't
denies... ...young
flee abroad
Greece
admits breach of bailout as audit begins...
CA
COURT: Illegal aliens entitled to in-state tuition...
Petraeus
lashes out at Karzai's criticism...
Toll
from Afghan clash rises to 5, worst in 6 months...
As Iraqis forged agreement, U.S. remained influential, administration says (Washington Post) [ Wow! u.s. remained influential; kind of says it all … brings to mind that destructive character, Sluggo, on the ‘Mr. Bill Show’ of SNL fame. Thanks but no thanks!. ] Agreement leaves some Iraqis bitter The mood in Baghdad's Sunni neighborhood of Adhamiyah was one of quiet but bitter resignation Friday, a day after Iraq's Shiite incumbent prime minister kept his post during a chaotic parliamentary session marred by a walkout. U.S. says it remained influential
Melinda Gates resigns from the Post Co. board(Washington Post) [ I think that’s a good thing for The Washington Post but will say no more than that. ] Wife of billionaire Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates did not give a reason for stepping down.
1)
Equity markets have rallied, but this is of little significance. There is no
evidence supporting an equity market “wealth effect” according to Robert
Shiller (see here)
and James Bianco (see here).
Bianco’s research actually finds that the corresponding commodity price
increases are more likely to be a net negative for consumers. And even if there
is a “wealth effect” it only helps the rich because the middle class are only
minority holders of equities on the whole. Of course, this isn’t a crisis of
the wealthy so this looks like another case of failing trickle down economics
at best. It’s also worth nothing that stock prices are nominal wealth so
intentionally distorting prices from fundamentals is no recipe for sustained
wealth. Keeping equity prices “higher than they otherwise would be” only
diminishes the Fed’s credibility while also creating distortions in markets.
2)
The 10 year bond yield is HIGHER since the Jackson Hole
speech. The 30 year bond yield is up 50 bps since the Jackson Hole speech.
Therefore, there is unlikely to be a sustained refinancing effect and no
increased demand to take on more debt (not that this would work in a balance
sheet recession anyhow, but Mr. Bernanke fails to acknowledge that this is a
demand side problem). 74% of all consumer debt is mortgage based so it’s
baffling that they are targeting the short end of the yield curve. Bernanke wants
to stimulate borrowing, but his actions aren’t backing up his talk. He is focusing his
efforts on the short end of the curve where rates are already very low –
astoundingly confusing and misguided policy.
3)
Many commodities have rallied in recent weeks which will do nothing but put
pressure on input costs and ultimately make life more difficult for the US
consumer (assuming these costs even get passed along, which is unlikely due to
weak end demand). The consumer will either be hit with higher costs which they
can’t afford to sustain or US corporations will continue to be hesitant to hire
the millions that need jobs because they are too busy protecting their margins.
On the one hand, this one of the few certainties we have regarding QE – it hurts
corporate margins by causing a speculative ramp up in commodity prices.
[chart]
4)
QE IS NOT MONEY
PRINTING [ It is here where Mr. Roche goes awry and is not quite
correct. An analogous example (of enabling), though not perfect, would be if
the fed was purchasing worthless driftwood at the base of the Mississippi or
tumbleweeds in Texas reflected only by accounting book entries does not change
the effect of ever more worthless Weimar dollar creation. ] so there is no
reason to believe that it will cause anything more than expectations of
future inflation. When the Fed implements a policy of QE they are merely
purchasing an asset that already existed and swapping it with a deposit. There
is some debate over the price changes before these transactions take place and
whether the Fed is buying at higher prices, but this is offset by the fact that
the Fed is removing a high yielding asset for a lower yielding asset. In this
case, they are removing 1.2% paper (on average) in exchange for reserves that
will earn just 0.25%. Remember, in QE1 the Fed removed over ~$47.5B in interest
income from the private sector. So if anything, this has a marginal deflationary
impact.
5)
Borrowing didn’t pick-up after QE1 and there’s certainly no signs of a
borrowing boom in recent data. Of course, with real estate in the midst of a
double dip there’s unlikely to be a surge in borrowing in the coming quarters
anyhow. As Robert Shiller detailed, the “wealth effect” of a housing boom can
be quite substantial. With
home prices now declining again we’re actually seeing the opposite
of a “wealth effect”. In other words, the majority of Americans don’t
feel better because Wall Street rallies each and every day. They feel worse
because the asset they come home to every night, the asset that accounts for
the majority of their net worth, has declined in value. [chart]
So just what exactly does QE do for the economy? Even
the people who are advocates of it don’t seem to know and certainly can’t back
up their claims with any positive evidence. Meanwhile the media and its
misguided punditry are falling all over each other to spread falsehoods and
inaccuracies regarding this policy as they shower Ben Bernanke with praise for
trying something. I am not sure why Mr. Bernanke is worthy of any
praise. He did not foresee this crisis. He responded too late when it was clear
that a crisis was on our doorstep. And when he finally did respond he saved the
banking system and left the American public out to dry. Thus far the evidence
surrounding his latest tool looks poor at best and it in fact appears as though
it could be causing more harm than good.
As for the markets, there has been some interesting
action in recent weeks. It looks like the smart money markets (FX and fixed
income) have slowly started coming around to the fact that QE won’t cause a
dollar crash (because there is no interest rate effect and no “printed money”).
Meanwhile, risk markets (equities and commodities) are on fire as “buy the dip”
and “don’t fight the Fed” become the motto on every trading desk. The
divergence here won’t last and given the early evidence it looks to me like a
whole lot of investors are deep into the risk trade without the fundamentals to
back it up. They’ve placed a bet on a Fed Chief who has failed at nearly every
step of his tenure. A great deal of leveraged optimism has been priced into the
market based on this “non-event“.
I do not know if I have ever seen the market rally so much around an event that
involved more misguided and inaccurate analysis.
Mr. Bernanke has created dangerous distortions in
many markets over a policy that appears to have no real economic impact. He is
playing games with the markets in an effort to give the appearance that he has
not run out of policy tools. This not only calls into question the independence
of the Federal Reserve, but has to very seriously make one wonder whether Mr.
Bernanke is fit to run the world’s most important Central Bank? I have long
maintained that he was never fit for this position and in my opinion the early
evidence of QE only further confirms that belief.
5
Long-Term Consequences Of The Recession [ Actually this great recession that wasn’t going to happen as per
b.s. bernanke is actually a depression which continues despite manipulation and
spin and definitional niceties. Those continuing ‘consequences’ are merely a
reflection of this fact. ]
Simpson
‘Whenever the word “recession” comes up, people expect a certain
amount of damage, and damage of a certain type. Everybody knows that there will
be job losses and a general sense of gloom and malaise. Most people also seem
to expect the government to “do something” to end the recession. Along the way,
the stock market falls, interest rates drop and overall economic
activity slows down. It is never pleasant, but it is a relatively routine part
of the economic cycle.The Great Recession that officially ended a year ago may
be different with consequences that could run deep and last for many years…
“I
Love You, But …”
This recession seems to be having a definite impact on family life.
Industrial production is not the only “production” that has fallen; birth rates
have dropped to record lows as people delay having children in the face of the
economic troubles. What’s more, there is the expected increase in divorces –
not surprising, given that monetary issues are a common root cause of divorce
and tough economic times sharpen those problems – as well as a big spike in
prenup agreements.
Losing the Future
One
of the saddest under-reported consequences of recession is the different
impacts it can have on young people. Grim as it is, recessions lead to higher
rates of child malnutrition, and there is ample evidence that points to serious
long-term consequences to such malnutrition, including stunted development and
academic under-achievement.Even for kids who have enough to eat, the impacts
can still be serious. Less money in the pockets of parents can have a direct
impact on the kids’ education and enrichment opportunities. Too many high
school kids are finding college slipping out of reach due to a combination of
parents who cannot help with tuition and banks that will not lend. What’s more,
it is fair to wonder what the psychological impact may be of seeing mom and/or
dad lose a job and be out of work for years – does it inspire unproductive
emotions like resentment or fatalism? (For more, see The 6 Worst Student Loan Mistakes You Can Make.)
More Anger, More Distrust
Recessions
have a way of stapling a “kick me” sign to the back of whatever government is
in charge during the troubles. This recession feels a bit different though, as
almost everybody seems angry about something. One side of the aisle is livid at
what they see as untrammeled expansion and intrusion of government; the other
side chastises the government for not getting involved enough and solving the
problem!With a festering pit of rancor to exploit, some politicians are apparently
looking to score points with constituents by stirring the pot instead of
working with their colleagues to create long-term solutions for national
policy. In turn, that may mean that this recession has the long-term side
effect of distracting the political process and creating so many bad feelings
that important work goes undone and problems become even more serious down the
line.
A New World of Jobs and Housing
It
seems likely that this recession will have a long tail in terms of its impact
on jobs and housing. Individuals who thought their portfolio and/or the value
of their house meant that retirement was imminent may now be facing a decade or
more of additional working years. That could be bad on several levels, as it
will block new entrants from the job market and will mean higher employment
costs for companies. Ironically, the government may stand to benefit, as it
could increase the spread of time where these workers contribute to the Social Security system before taking
benefits.It is not unusual for housing prices to decline in a recession, but
the role of housing in this Great Recession is clearly a little different than
past examples. With so many people trapped in unsellable houses, the normal
migration from areas with no jobs to areas with jobs has been stymied.
Moreover, so many people have learned a harsh lesson regarding the fallacy of
houses making great investments.What could this mean for the future? It is not
unthinkable that politicians may reconsider whether it really is good to
aggressively promote home ownership and whether Congress ought to roll back
certain incentives. It may also be the case that former homeowners either
decide that the hassles of home ownership are not worth the risks, or that they
cannot get mortgages again in the future. In either case, houses may lose their
luster and the recovery in housing prices could turn into a multi-decade slog.
(For more, see Boomers: Twisting The Retirement Mindset.)
Huge Debts to Pay
In
an ironic twist, a recession that came about in large part because of excessive
consumer debt and excessive financial leverage in the system may yet end with
far too much debt on balance sheets. As the Fed has determinedly
pushed rates down to near-nothing, corporations (and the federal government)
have gorged on the cheap paper.Savvy companies will no doubt put this capital
to work and make substantial returns on the leverage. The problem is, it is never the savvy companies
that cause reason to worry. It’s the “me too” companies led by reckless or
inept managers who will cause the trouble. Sooner or later, these companies
will have a tough time paying their debts, and that will lead to a whole new
cycle of worry, distress, job loss and so on. Likewise, without a buoyant
economy to bail out the federal government, this high public debt burden could
lead the way to higher taxes, higher inflation and other unpleasant consequences.’
Stocks
stumbled to close out a red week on Wall Street as the major indexes dropped
more than TK over five days.Some pullback was certainly to be expected after a
two-month rally culminated in last week's surge punctuated by the Federal Reserve's
plan to purchase $600 billion in Treasury debt through June 2011., a plan that
got off to a rocky start Friday as technical difficulties forced the central
bank to extend the window for its first round of purchases.
The Fed's action has drawn criticism from around the
world since last week, leading up to the G20 meeting in South Korea this week that has been marked
thus far by sniping whether QE2 is intended to artificially depress the value of
the dollar. Another wrinkle comes from China, where inflation hit a two-year
high and sparked concerns that the central bank there could try to tamp down
growth and in turn slow the global recovery.
All that combined with continued weakness from
technology stocks on the heels of a cautious
outlook from Cisco
Systems ( CSCO
- news -
people ) Wednesday.
The sector was not a complete basket case Friday – its losses were in line with
the broader market thanks partly to a dividend hike from Intel
( INTC
- news -
people ) – but the Technology
SPDR ETF ( XLK
- news -
people ) was still
down 1.4%.
The Dow Jones industrial average lost 91 points to
11,193, while the S&P 500 fell 14 points to 1,199 and the Nasdaq sank 37
points to 2,518. For the week the indexes were down 2.2%, 2.2% and 2.4%,
respectively. Commodities were also reeling on the news out of China, with gold
down more than $30 to below $1,370 an ounce and oil dropping to less than $85 a
barrel.
Boeing ( BA
- news -
people ) was among the
culprits behind the Dow's decline, sliding 3.5% amid fresh concerns over delays
on its 787 Dreamliner. Analysts at Bernstein cut the aircraft maker to market
perform, citing worries that challenges for the 787 could offset positive
demand trends, according to TradeTheNews.com.’
Drudgereport:
Obama's
economic view rejected on world stage...
NYT:
Obama’s Glow Dims on Trip to Asia...
UPDATE:
G-20 refuses to back US push on China's currency...
Sarkozy
questions dollar’s dominant role in world...
IMF
Shadow Looms; Irish Take Pay Cuts to Avoid Bailout...
Airport
body-scan radiation under new scrutiny...
PILOTS,
PASSENGERS RAGE AT NEW NAKED SCANNERS, PATDOWNS...
MUSLIM
GROUP TELLS WOMEN WEARING HIJABS: REFUSE FULL-BODY SEARCH...
US
postal service delivers less mail, loses $8.5 billion ... [ The u.s.postal service is totally unreliable ‘… *The
foregoing and as indicated therein was previously send 9-14-10 but delivery
confirmation was flawed as set forth below and my inquiries to the u.s. postal
service rebuffed (I believe tampered with inasmuch as your office could not
locate same). This cover letter (9-13-10) is on the 3 disks with navigable
hyperlinks to the subject files for ease of reference, including the files in
the RICO action as indicated. (10-15-10) I spoke with Rose, FBI, ADIC
Secretary, who indicates once again that your office has not received the
aforesaid and which can reasonably be presumed to have been tampered with, and
hence, a violation of the federal statute concerning same…’ ]
Pelosi's
bid carries pros and cons (Washington Post) [ That’s
pro’s and cons in the more literal sense of the words; viz., pros_titutes and
cons / criminals / frauds. No mystery here!
]
Sunnis'
walkout mars political talks in Iraq (Washington Post) [ It’s … be…ginning
to look a lot like Christmas, everywhere pervasively corrupt ‘little israel’
defacto bankrupt war criminal nation america goes (to the tune of that
Christmas song) … Nothing like creating the anti-Christian sentiment through
failed policy to keep the war machine greased with money defacto bankrupt
america doesn’t really have (and aren’t the jews / israelis by definition ‘anti-Christ
and hence anti-Christian’) ] One chaotic parliamentary session reflects
challenges facing U.S. efforts to leave behind a stable Iraq with a
representative government. Attack
on Karachi police building kills 18 (Washington Post) About six militants
open fire on a criminal investigations office in the "red zone," a
highly secured area within Pakistan's largest city that houses the provincial
minister's residence and the U.S. Consulate. [Visiting U.S. senators praise Afghan
progress, say drawdown date is unrealistic (Washington Post) [ I’ll
tell you what’s unrealistic: having compromised senators ( ie., non-war-heroe
senile mccain, closet homosexual graham, incompetent zelig zionist lieberman, new
york sinkhole slug Kirsten Gillibrand chided As 'Schumer's (zionist)
Little Girl' ) stay the course with already failed pervasively corrupt,
defacto bankrupt american policy … Paul
Craig Roberts: Government Abandoned Vietnam POWs Kurt
Nimmo |
John McCain worked overtime to make sure Vietnam POWs never came home. I think
the even bigger story vis-à-vis mccain is: http://www.albertpeia.com/heroenot.htm
‘Did you know that that so-called "american heroe" john mccain was
referred to by his fellow pows in Vietnam as something akin to the
"songbird" inasmuch as he was constantly "singing" to his
Viet-Cong captors to curry favor and better treatment? This has been documented
with authority by Colonel David Hackworth. The same violates military
code/protocol (other soldiers have been court-martialed for far less) click Here, Here. [ http://www.albertpeia.com/hackworth.htm
] But, you see, this covered up scenario, compromizing the false facade
of far less than a heroe, is exactly what a criminal (lie of a) nation as
america loves and encourages (get everyone's hands dirty so no-one dares to
rectify same, ie., bush, sr., clinton, bush, jr.). That is, "toe the
(corrupt, propagandized) line", become a criminal, or be exposed,
prosecuted, and/or ruined; and, hasn't anyone asked how "wall street"
has been "spared the spotlight" (and even was accorded protective
legislation from their criminal culpability) and focus of inquiry, attention,
and prosecution despite being the primary beneficiaries financial and otherwise
of these scams (you know the wall street motto, "churn and earn";
huge conflicts of interest if not outright fraud)…’…Oh and they so can afford
it Deficit
panel proposes huge cuts (Washington Post) [ Cuts? I heard the corrupt, incompetent lawmakers were giving
themselves a raise. They actually deserve at least a 10% paycut and abolition
of those lifetime appointments / permanent corrupt bureaucracies. Nothing
succeeds like failure and crime in pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt
america! ] Lawmakers propose curbs on Social Security, cuts in spending and tax
hikes if long-term goals aren't met. ]
Sentiment Indicators Are
Screaming Sell-Off Hedge Fund Live ‘As we have witnessed a solid run
up from 1140 and a break to new highs in both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ
Composite sentiment indicators are hitting levels we witnessed in January and
April which resulted in dynamic sell-offs. The latest indicator comes from Mark
Hulbert who keeps a 30+ year sentiment indicator which tracks the mood of
newsletter editors for equities, bonds, and gold. As of yesterday the Hulbert
Stock Newsletter Sentiment index (S&P 500) is at 60.8% which is about a 40%
point jump from September 2010. 60.8% is just below Hulbert’s line in the sand
of 65% whcih has coincided with numerous market tops. In April, his indicator
topped at 65.5% and in January at 65.2%. Hulbert’s NASDAQ indicator, which has
a more volatile range due to the speculative nature of the index, is at 73%. In
April 2010 Hulbert’s NASDAQ indicator topped out at 80%. Hulbert’s index isn’t
perfect, for instance in Oct. 2006 his index read 67.8%, but, shrugged off the
outsized bullishness and continued to rally until Feb. 2007. All in all, the
majority of indicators tell you we are overbought and if managers need to chase
performance into year-end we should see a rally into year-end, but these are
facts and according to Hulbert’s study we could very well see a sell-off.’
Short-Term, High-Probability Mean
Reversion Indicator. Energy Very Overbought Crowder If you recall,
yesterday I stated that the Biotech ETF (IBB) was in a “very oversold” state
according to my High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicators. The RSI (2) had
pushed to a low of 1.5. I suppose I should have taken my own advice and placed
a trade Tuesday morning as the ETF pushed down to test the 50-day moving
average only to bounce right off and push higher to finish the day up $0.61 or
0.7%.As it stands now, the major market indice, S&P 500 (SPY), is still in
an overbought state right alongside the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ). The
Energy ETF (XLE) is now on my radar as it has pushed into a “very overbought”
state and the RSI (2) is currently reading 94.4. I would prefer to see a
reading above 95 before I take a position, so we will have to see how today
plays out. As I wrote this, the futures were substantially lower. Cisco’s
(CSCO) outlook was well below analysts’ expectations, which pushed the stock
lower 12% after hours and as expected, has pushed the Nasdaq 100 lower 1.3%
after hours. If this holds up overnight, I should be able to get out of my
current QQQQ position for a decent profit. Also, I think this could lead to the
11/4 gap close in all of the major indices. Could this be the beginning of
further declines? While no one knows for certain, there are three remaining
gaps that have yet to close. So, if indeed you believe that all gaps close
eventually then maybe today could be the beginning of something special, that
is, if you are one of the few bears left.
Short-Term
High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator – as of close 11/10/10
Benchmark
ETFs
*
S&P 500 (SPY) – 70.5 (overbought)
*
Dow Jones (DIA) – 65.0 (neutral)
*
Russell 2000 (IWM) – 69.1 (neutral)
*
NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ) – 77.5 (overbought)
Sector
ETFs
*
Biotech (IBB) – 39.6 (neutral)
*
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) – 71.3 (overbought)
*
Health Care (XLV) – 38.9 (neutral)
*
Financial (XLF) – 65.3 (neutral)
*
Energy (XLE) – 92.4 (very overbought)
*
Gold Miners (GDX) – 68.3 (neutral)
*
Industrial (XLI) – 56.7 (neutral)
*
Materials (XLB) – 61.0 (neutral)
*
Real Estate (IYR) – 47.1 (neutral)
*
Retail (RTH) – 58.6 (neutral)
*
Semiconductor (SMH) – 75.1 (overbought)
*
United States Oil Fund (USO) – 75.2 (overbought)
*
Utilities (XLU) – 36.2 (neutral)
International
ETFs
*
Brazil (EWZ) – 42.7 (neutral)
*
China 25 (FXI) – 57.8 (neutral)
*
EAFE (EFA) – 54.4 (neutral)
*
South Korea (EWY) – 68.2 (neutral)
Commodity
ETFs
*
Gold (GLD) – 67.6 (neutral)
Ultra
Extremes
*
Small Cap Bear 3x (TZA) – 28.4 (oversold)
*
Small-Cap Bull 3x (TNA) – 68.4 (neutral)
*
UltraLong QQQQ (QLD) – 62.3 (neutral)
*
Ultra Long S&P 500 (SSO) – 69.5 (neutral)
*
Ultra Short S&P 500 (SDS) – 28.8 (oversold)
*
UltraShort 20+ Treasury (TBT) – 74.5 (overbought)
Disclosure:
Long TZA. Short QQQQ, FXI and SPY.
Cisco Delivers
Unexpected Pain: Dave's Daily ‘It wasn't all
that bad now, was it? As the day progressed a little Novocain was provided by
bulls who very much believe in the meme: good news is good and bad news is
better. Markets inched steadily higher since every gap lower is a buying
opportunity. Besides, Thursday was Veterans Day so there was no economic data
to spoil the party. The G-20 is basically finished with serious issues and
controversies papered over. Meanwhile Bernanke's QE plan is getting more negative
reaction even as he outlines another $100 billion in Treasury bonds to be
purchased over the next month. It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas for
the "gang of 21"' (the Fed's Primary Dealer network). Wouldn't you
like to be a Primary Dealer? You can sell your bonds to them and get freshly
minted greenbacks to trade. What the banks do with that money is anyone's guess
since they're not telling. Most believe it pushes stock prices higher, and
indeed, Bernanke himself suggested that much last week. Here's the deal from
our perspective anyway -- markets were overbought and we observed dozens of
weekly DeMark 9 counts on all major markets and subsectors. Usually that
indicates "trend exhaustion'", sideways action and perhaps even a
reversal…’
NUTCASE
CENTRAL [comedy if not so tragic] : Tim Geithner
Bought Shares Of Sweet Ass Manufacturer To Teach His Kids About Stocks - Government officials
often avoid conflicts between professional obligations and personal finances by
divesting company stocks from their portfolios. So it comes as a surprise that,
along with the s... Merrill Lynch
Guys Got At Least One Thing Right - Say what you want
about them but they knew their Harry Potter references. And shouldn’t that
count for something? Some Merrill Lynch & Co. traders had a dark
departmental secret: They called it the ... Goldman Sachs
Interview Tutorial Devoid Of Any Useful Tips For A Reason
- As a firm with one of the most daunting interview processes on
Wall Street, in which candidates may be asked to come in 30 to 100 times,
Goldman Sachs is uniquely qualified to offer tips to job seeker... FSA To Require
Firms To Record Employees’ Phone Calls Despite It Being A Waste Of Money That
Enterprising Insider Traders Will Undoubtedly Work Around
- The Financial Services Authority announced today that “relevant
communications made with, sent from or received on mobile phones and other
handheld devices must be recorded and stored for six months.”... Harbinger
Capital Has An Interesting Alternative Theory For Why Goldman Sachs Pulled Its
Money From The Fund
Bernanke Confirms That The Key
Goal Of The Fed, And QE2, Is To Boost Stock Prices Zero
Hedge | So much for the Fed’s two mythical mandates of promoting
“maximum employment” and maintaining “price stability.”
The “Current Housing Recession is
Rivaling the Great Depression’s Real Estate Downturn [and] Will Easily Eclipse
It In the Coming Months” During the Great Depression, home prices
fell 25.9 percent in five years. The U.S. housing market is now down around 25
percent from its peak in 2006.
National / World
Is the Fed’s Debt-Buying
Unconstitutional? Fox News | Is the Fed engaging in
an unconstitutional monetization of the U.S. Congress’ out of control spending
spree that is really a bridge loan to fiscal insanity?
Agents Provocateurs Turn Tuition
Protest Into Violent Melee Kurt Nimmo | Another
protest devolves into a violent sideshow for the corporate media.
Drudge Stirs National Debate On
TSA Abuse The populist Drudge Report website has stirred a national
debate on TSA abuse of passengers through dangerous naked body scanners and
invasive groping measures, culminating in an onslaught of resistance from
numerous prominent travel and pilots associations, and leading to the
organization of a national opt out day on November 24.
Drudgereport: Backlash grows over TSA's 'naked strip searches'...
Pilots and passengers rail at new airport
patdowns...
Resistance spreads...
UPDATE: China lashes Fed pumping as risk to global
recovery...
Lula: World headed for 'bankruptcy'...
G-20 deals prove elusive...
Woman Tries To Set Herself On Fire Outside Summit...
Go to following pages for
above links:
http://www.albertpeia.com/currentopics2ndqtr10108.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com
http://www.scribd.com/alpeia
http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm
Tradermark ‘…Now let's look at it from
one last angle before we leave the subject. There is one form of wealth that
has a far more conventional distribution pattern in the US of A. That is saving
deposits.Top 1%: 20% of American deposits Next 9%: 38% Bottom 90%: 42% [chart] So if one wanted to actually help the bottom
90%, and "lift all boats" and "generate economic activity"
perhaps one would lift Fed fund rates to a level that banks would actually pay
something larger than the size of a flea on savings. Or indeed something
tangible on Certificates of Deposits (amazingly the average CD rate fell
below 1% as of last week). That actually would be some form of wealth effect
for the masses... instead our saver class is being used as a mass subsidization
scheme for the debtors and speculator class. Of course the latter is
concentrated in the upper shards of society as the previous paragraphs
showcased. [Mar
31, 2010: Ben Bernanke Content to Sacrifice American Savors to Recapitalize
Banks and Benefit Debtors] So who again exactly is QE2
"benefiting" (if the 'wealth effect indeed is even real?) Due to the
demolishment of savers, we will have people twice burned by NASDAQ 2000, and
real estate 2007 trying to rebuild their savings facing a scorched earth
scenario. As for those fixed income seniors (who receive no cost of living
adjustment because America has "no inflation" per government statistics)?
If they want to make any inflation adjusted returns they will be 'herded' out
of CDs and savings into bonds and stocks so they can survive the Bernanke
inflation regime. And that's in an environment where the dollar is stable ...
don't even think about the losses the savers of the country are suffering as
their wealth is sapped away, so that a small proportion of our corporations can
create jobs in China and India! make some extra bucks via weak dollar
exports. Most likely just about these folks throw their hands up in disgust and
go "all in" on risk assets, the next bubble implosion from fake asset
values will commence, transferring the last vestiges of middle class wealth to
the masters of our universe. (this will be round 3 of that cycle since 1999 -
notice a pattern?) So as we clap for Mr. Bernanke, and sing kumbaya about how
manipulation of asset prices is helping "us all" try not to think of
any of the data in this piece. Stick to dogma recited on CNBC, or else your
head might spin off.’
China's
Dagong Downgrades U.S. Debt to A+ on Quantitative Easing
America
Is Either Going To Suffer Through A Deflationary Depression Or Hyperinflation It
seems the Fed has given up on the idea that the country can build a viable and
stable economy through the conventional means. Instead, our central bank has
resorted to once again growing GDP and increasing employment by the creation of
asset bubbles. This is a dangerous game that no one, least of all the Fed,
knows how to play.
Phantom Jobs Paul Craig Roberts | The financial press did no investigation and
simply reported the number handed to the media by the government.
Drudgereport: SLASH
AND BURN!
Debt
Panel: Cut Social Security, Medicare...
End Tax
Deduction for Mortgages...
Raise
Retirement Age...
DEMS
PRESSING PELOSI TO STEP ASIDE...
More
federal workers' pay tops $150,000...
REVOLT...
TX
GOV CALLS SOCIAL SECURITY BANKRUPT 'PONZI SCHEME'...
OIL
HITS $88...
STUDENTS
RUN WILD IN LONDON...
'THIS
IS JUST THE BEGINNING'...
VIDEO...
UK
Govt to withhold welfare checks from some unemployed...
IRELAND
MESS: INVESTORS DUMP BONDS...
BANK
DOOM...
German
tempers fray as US policy gulf widens...
CHINA
TO OVERTAKE US ECONOMY 'WITHIN 2 YEARS'...
China
to buy stake in GM...
China
jails father of tainted milk victim; Organized support group for parents...
Clinton
announces $150 million to Palestinian Authority...
...criticizes
Israeli expanded building plan
GREENSPAN
WARNS OVER WEARKER DOLLAR...
GOP's
Palin paradox (Washington Post) Parker: She's too powerful to ignore, and too (fill-in-the-blank) to take
seriously. [ Say it! … Dumb! … Everybody knows it! … Cher even said it! … I
believe that this further evinces the leadership vacuum in america and is a
testament to how unequivocally far america has fallen. Powerful? I don’t think so! ]
Sarah
Palin: The Next Teleprompter Reader in the White House [ Not gonna’ happen
… she’s just too embarrassingly dumb …
and all that fake macho / zionist b*** s***
… unless her gal o’donnel casts a spell … which is a whole new ball game
… witches … really … how ‘bout dumb *******s …. she’s really dumb enough to
press the button. ] ? Kurt Nimmo | In 2008, Tea Party Sarah trekked to New York to
kiss Henry Kissinger’s ring.
Sarah
Palin: The Next Teleprompter Reader in the White House? [ Not gonna’ happen … she’s just too embarrassingly dumb … unless her gal o’donnel casts a spell …
which is a whole new ball game … witches … really … how ‘bout dumb *******s ...
and all that fake macho / zionist b*** s*** ... she’s really dumb enough to
press the button. ] It looks like the establishment is grooming Tea Party Sarah
for a run. She says as much in the Newsmax interview below.
Palin
calls reporters 'impotent' and 'limp' (Washington Post) [ I must reiterate,
she, palin’s so embarrassingly dumb! She truly is the joke that keeps on
giving! I really mean it! I mean, what next? ] The former Alaska governor
weighed in herself: "Those who are impotent and limp and gutless and they
go on their anonymous -- sources that are anonymous -- and impotent, limp and
gutless reporters take anonymous sources and cite them as being factual
references," she told Sean Hannity. "It just slays me ( this could be
a somewhat Freudian slip as she contemplates the uselessness of sexually
non-interested reporters while she meant lays and I think her supposed /
purported attractiveness / desirability is vastly overstated; but, this makes
for great SNL skits; you know, those reporters not man enough to service her
) because it's so absolutely clear what
the state of yellow journalism is today that they would take these anonymous
sources as fact."
The
power of Palin's touch
(Washington Post) [Wow! Talk about stupid. Murphy could have eliminated the
middle-man (person) and appeared on SNL himself; maybe reprising a familiar
(Eddie) Murphy role as Gumby 2, Son of Gumby. The only thing funnier is palin
herself. She’s so embarrassingly dumb!] .Endorsement lifts little-known
candidate in Md., giving the struggling campaign a "megaphone."
Comment on:
5 Myths about Sarah Palin at 10/14/2010 9:39 PM EDT
Test
yourself to find out how much you know about Sarah Palin. Take the quiz and
after, check out The Washington Post's 'Five Myths about Palin.' (Washington
Post) [ Geeh! I scoured the quiz / 5 myths and nowhere did I see the obvious
myth; viz., that she really has a brain. Maybe gal pal pol protégé o’donnell
can help her out … a few mysterious words, a slimy newt (gingrich) in a caldron
of b*** s*** , and voila … a new reality which is what o’donnell herself is
sorely in need of … O'Donnell, evolved Milbank: She didn't mention mice with
human brains in Wednesday's debate. But she said silly things. Stromberg:
O'Donnell is... wow The CNN host, moderating the long awaited Delaware senatorial
debate Wednesday night, was trying to get the Republican nominee to talk about
her 1998 statement on the Bill Maher show that "evolution is a myth."
"Do you believe evolution is a myth?" Blitzer asked.
"I believe that the local ... " O'Donnell began, then started anew.
"I was talking about what a local school taught, and that should be
taught, that should be decided on the local community."
"Do you believe evolution is a myth?" the moderator repeated.
"Local schools should make that decision."
"What do you believe?"
"What I believe is irrelevant."
"Why is it irrelevant? Voters want to know."
"What I will support in Washington, D.C. is the ability of the local
school system to decide what is taught in their classrooms," O'Donnell
repeated.
The answer, though, was obvious: Of course she believes in evolution; she is a
product of evolution herself. She has evolved from a very odd woman who spoke
about the evils of masturbation and of mice with fully functioning human brains
and of her experience in sorcery (but she didn't join a coven!). …
Obama
cites Indonesia as model for Muslims (Washington Post)[
Drudgereport: Obama slams israel from
Jakarta … [ Wow! Who woulda’ thunk it … Wobama growing gonads in Indonesia … He
is quite correct, albeit in one of those sparingly infrequent moments … But,
alas … he’ll be returning to ‘little israel’ soon (usa) and I’m sure his
rhetoric will return to typical pro-israeli (anti-american interest) actions
and words (b*** s***)! ]...
netanayahu takes Flight
Back...
Confronts Anti-israel
Reality/Truth Movement in USA...
China Ratings
Agency Downgrades America... ] In city he
once lived in as a boy, Obama heralds nation's "spirit of tolerance"
that allows mosques, churches and temples to co-exist in a democracy.
Fed
Concludes Structurally High Unemployment is a Myth Mike Shedlock
| Ben Bernanke and the Fed have great belief in academic models whether they
make any real world practical sense or not. Indeed, Bernanke’s reliance on
formulas instead of common sense is what told him there was no housing bubble,
that unemployment would not get above 8.5%, and that Quantitative Easing in
massive force would cause the unemployment rate to drop. He was wrong on all
counts.
Drudgereport: Appears to have been launched
at sea...
No sign NORAD, NORTHCOM
detected...
Just a jetliner's contrail?...
VIDEO...
MYSTERY 'MISSILE' OFF CA
COAST; PENTAGON 'NO CLUE' [ I believe the pentagon has no clue, but
not as concerns that missile. How totally and pathetically desperate they are!
]
Obama slams israel from
Jakarta … [ Wow! Who woulda’ thunk it … Wobama growing gonads in Indonesia … He
is quite correct, albeit in one of those sparingly infrequent moments … But,
alas … he’ll be returning to ‘little israel’ soon (usa) and I’m sure his
rhetoric will return to typical pro-israeli (anti-american interest) actions
and words (b*** s***)! ]...
netanayahu takes Flight
Back...
Confronts Anti-israel
Reality/Truth Movement in USA...
China Ratings
Agency Downgrades America...
Fed Backlash Grows...
China Fires Back At Bernanke
With Harsh New Capital Controls...
WARNS: 'CATASTROPHIC
INFLUENCE ON WORLD'...
GERMANY: 'The US Has Lived on
Borrowed Money for Too Long'...
PENTAGON: TROOPS MAY STAY IN
IRAQ...
U.S. Commander: U.S. Will Be
Fighting in Afghanistan in 2014... [ As I said, to reiterate, the
pentagon is clueless! ]
"After standing on the
stage, after the debates, I made it very plain, we will not have an all-volunteer
army. And yet, this week—we will have an all-volunteer army. Let me restate
that."—Daytona Beach, Fla., Oct. 16, 2004
"The CIA laid out several
scenarios and said life could be lousy, life could be OK, life could be
better, and they were just guessing as to what the conditions might be
like."—New York, Sept. 21, 2004
"Free societies are hopeful
societies. And free societies will be allies against these hateful few who have
no conscience, who kill at the whim of a hat."—Washington, D.C., Sept. 17,
2004 (Thanks to David Stanford.)
"That's why I went to the
Congress last September and proposed fundamental—supplemental funding, which is
money for armor and body parts and ammunition and fuel."—Erie, Pa., Sept.
4, 2004
"Too many good docs are
getting out of the business. Too many OB/GYN's aren't able to practice their
love with women all across the country."—Sept. 6, 2004, Poplar Bluff, Mo.
… there are so many more … ]
Israel
plans housing in East Jerusalem (Washington Post) [netanayahu ‘cause everyone knows nuclear
israel is greatest danger to world Jerusalem Post PM heckled repeatedly by activists at New Orleans GA
protesting West Bank "occupation" and plans for loyalty oath. Israel
is the greatest threat to the world, and its nuclear program must be stopped,
Prime Minister ... US 'Deeply Disappointed'
but committed to impotence by israel's Building Plan for East Jerusalem
Voice of America Israel permits new settlement homes Aljazeera.net ] The move
will likely complicate pm netanayahu's current visit to the United States for
talks about reviving stalled peace negotiations with the Palestinians.
Fed
official raises doubts over bond-purchase plan
Judges
chastise banks over foreclosure details (Washington Post)
[ Wow! Talk about parallel universes. Come on! Rules of law, legal
precedents are absolutely irrelevant in pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt
america. Then there’s the ‘who’s getting’ or givin’ the green (or votes – some
states elect judges, but appointment lends itself to the ‘green way’)
factor’] ‘…Trust "of the lending
institutions and Wall Street has eroded in some areas of the country more than
others [ Some? How ‘bout almost all!
]," Winslow said…’ A
judgment in favor of a homeowner has alarmed the nation's biggest lenders, who
say it could establish a dramatic new legal precedent.’ [Feds press mortgage lenders to
fix documents (Washington Post)
[ Fix documents? In matters
involving far more serious crimes of far more significance longer term to the nation,
I’d be content with mere adherence to clear law applied to the documented
facts, no matter where and to whom the crimes lead … see infra… ] White House says Obama will not
sign foreclosure bill [
Oooooh, whoops … Sounds like a plan!]
Consumer advocates and state officials argue legislation would make it
difficult for homeowners to challenge documents prepared in other states. [When talking about the pervasively corrupt
american legal / judicial system, you’re truly talking about tips of the
iceberg! Judges rule without title,
lenders can't foreclose (Washington Post) [ Rules of law? I
didn’t think they cared. That’s certainly the direct experience I’ve had with
the pervasively corrupt american legal / judicial system (along with the other
two branches of the u.s. government and defact bankrupt america generally).
Court decisions could call into doubt the ownership of mortgages, raising
urgent challenges for both the real estate market, wider financial system. Connecticut, California join
probe of Ally (Washington Post)
[I’d be much more impressed if they initiated a probe of more readily
discernible criminal offenses in violation of the RICO Act http://albertpeia.com
Frauds/Liars
(sic-lawyers)Covering Up for Other Frauds/Liars (sic-lawyers). In Productive
Societies as China, Japan, etc., Fraudulent Liars (sic-lawyers) and the
Fraudulent u.s. System They're a Part of Are Unheard Of/Non-existent. List of
Files Regarding Filed Attorney Grievance Against Fraud coan et als Or Here For A Clearer View Of
Filed Grievance Complaint,
Response, Exhibits, and Related RICO Filings Note the Committee of
Frauds/Liars (sic-lawyers). Included are DOJ Rep., State Court Rep., State Atty.
General Office Rep., and even a Vegetable Garden yale law prof who probably
never practiced law in his life. How Pathetic! http://albertpeia.com/fbiofficela91310 ] Justice: FBI improperly opened
probes (Washington
Post) [ I just hope
they’re as zealous (in probing readily discernible crime) with regard to my
RICO matters and the corruption in the (judicial / legal) process since, in the
final analysis, it will have been the corruption within that will have brought
the nation down irrevocably and totally.
October 15, 2010 (*see infra)
Steven M. Martinez, Assistant Director In Charge
Federal Bureau of Investigation, USDOJ
11000 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 1700
Los Angeles, CA 90024
Dear Sir:
I enclose herewith 3
copies of the within DVD rom autorun disk (which will open in your computer’s
browser) as per your office’s request as made this day (the disk and contents
have been scanned by Avast, McAfee, and Norton which I’ve installed on my
computer to prevent viral attacks / infection and are without threat). I also
include 1 copy of the DVD as filed with the subject court as referenced therein
(which files are also included on the aforesaid 3 disks in a separate folder
named ‘112208opocoan’). The (civil) RICO action (as you’re aware, the RICO Act
is a criminal statute which provides a civil remedy, including treble damages
and attorney fees, as an incentive for private prosecution of said claims
probably owing to the fact that the USDOJ seems somewhat overwhelmed and in need
of such assistance given the seriousness and prevalence of said violations of
law which have a corrupting influence on the process, and which corruption is
pervasive). A grievance complaint against Coan was also filed concurrently with
the subject action and held in abeyance pending resolution of the action which
was illegally dismissed without any supporting law and in contravention of the
Order of The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge, USDC, District
Connecticut. The files below the horizontal rule are the referenced documents
as filed. (Owing to the damage to the financial interests of both the U.S. and
the District of Congresswoman Roybal-Allard, viz., Los Angeles, the
Qui Tam provisions of the Federal
False Claims Act probably would apply and I would absent resolution seek to
refer the within to a firm with expertise in that area of the law with which I
am not familiar).
The document in 5 pages under penalty of
perjury I was asked to forward to the FBI office in New Haven is probably the
best and most concise summary of the case
RICO Summary to FBI Under Penalty
of Perjury at Their Request (5 pages) [
ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf ].
The correspondence I
received from the Congresswoman by way of email attachment (apparent but
typical problem with my mail) along with my response thereto is included on the
3 disks as fbicorrespondencereyes.htm . With regard to the
calls to the FBI’s LA and New Haven, CT offices: There was one call to the LA
office and I was referred to the Long Beach, CA office where I personally met
with FBI Agent Jeff Hayes to whom I gave probative evidentiary documents of the
money laundering which he confirmed as indicative of same (he was transferred
from said office within approximately a month of said meeting and his location
was not disclosed to me upon inquiry). The matter was assigned to FBI Agent Ron
Barndollar and we remained in touch for in excess of a decade until he abruptly
retired (our last conversation prior to his retirement related to the case and
parenthetically, Rudy Giuliani whose father I stated had been an enforcer for
the mob to which he registered disbelief and requested I prove it, which I did
– he served 12 years in prison, aggravated assault/manslaughter? – and no,
there is no Chinese wall of separation – Andrew Maloney’s the one that
prosecuted gotti).
In contradistinction
to the statement in said correspondence, there is a plethora of information
including evidence supporting the claims set forth in the RICO VERIFIED COMPLAINT (see infra). Such includes and as set
forth in the case, inter alia,
There is applicable insurance / surety coverage and neither LA, nor
creditors, nor I should continue to have been damaged by this brazened corrupt
and illegal scenario, which should be resolved in accordance with the
meaningful rules of law apposite thereto.
Sincerely,
Albert L. Peia
611 E. 5th Street, #404
Los Angeles, CA 90013
(213) 219-**** (cell phone)
(213) 622-3745 (listed land line but there are unresolved problems with
the line, computer connection may be the reason but I hesitate to chance
greater non-performance / worsening by their ‘fix’ so cell phone best for
contact).
----------
*The foregoing and as
indicated therein was previously send 9-14-10 but delivery confirmation was
flawed as set forth below and my inquiries to the u.s. postal service rebuffed
(I believe tampered with inasmuch as your office could not locate same). This
cover letter (9-13-10) is on the 3 disks with navigable hyperlinks to the
subject files for ease of reference, including the files in the RICO action as
indicated. (10-15-10) I spoke with Rose, FBI, ADIC Secretary, who indicates
once again that your office has not received the aforesaid and which can
reasonably be presumed to have been tampered with, and hence, a violation of
the federal statute concerning same.
-----
Label/Receipt Number:
0310 1230 0000 0862 8183
Expected Delivery
Date: September 15, 2010
Class: Priority Mail®
Service(s): Delivery
Confirmation™
Status: Delivered
Your item was
delivered at 10:14 am on September 15, 2010 in LOS ANGELES, CA 90024.
Track and
Confirm
Enter Label/Receipt Number.
Enter Label / Receipt
Number.
Detailed
Results:
Bullet Delivered, September 15, 2010, 10:14 am, LOS
ANGELES, CA 90024
Bullet Arrival at Post Office, September 15, 2010,
4:12 am, LOS ANGELES, CA 90024
Bullet Processed through Sort Facility, September 14,
2010, 8:29 pm, LOS ANGELES, CA 90052
Bullet Acceptance, September 14, 2010, 4:04 pm, LOS
ANGELES, CA 90017
----
Sent Postage Prepaid: United States Mail - VIA Priority
Mail, Delivery Confirmation and VIA Certified Mail this ___ day of October,
2010.
Signed:
___________________________________
Albert L. Peia
-------------
Label/Receipt Number: 7009 2250
0002 1116 5915
Expected Delivery Date: October 6, 2010
Class: Priority Mail®
Service(s): Certified Mail™
Status: Delivered
Your item was delivered at 11:42 am on October 06, 2010 in LOS ANGELES, CA
90024.
Detailed Results:
Delivered,
October 06, 2010, 11:42 am, LOS ANGELES, CA 90024
Arrival
at Unit, October 06, 2010, 4:15 am, LOS ANGELES, CA 90024
Acceptance,
October 05, 2010, 11:12 am, LOS ANGELES, CA 90017
---------------------------
Label/Receipt Number: 0309 3220
0000 4028 9039
Expected Delivery Date: October 6, 2010
Class: Priority Mail®
Service(s): Delivery Confirmation™
Status: Delivered
Your item was delivered at 9:03 am on October 06, 2010 in LOS ANGELES, CA
90024.
Detailed Results:
Delivered,
October 06, 2010, 9:03 am, LOS ANGELES, CA 90024
Arrival
at Post Office, October 06, 2010, 6:10 am, LOS ANGELES, CA 90024
Acceptance,
October 05, 2010, 11:11 am, LOS ANGELES, CA 90017
-------
Sent VIA UPS Courier this 15th day of October, 2010.
Signed: Albert L. Peia
------------
Gerald Celente: “The selloff of
America” Financial
institutions on Wall Street are preparing to pay a shocking record $144 billion
dollars in compensation & benefits. This amid spiraling foreclosures and an
economic crisis that has devastated Americans, leaving many out in the street.
Gerald Celente of the Trends Research Institute says that the gap between rich
and poor in the US will continue to get larger because of the bank bailout that
Washington shelled out in 2008.
]
Why
I'm Short the Market, or Why the Market Is Not a Forward Looking Indicator
‘I’m sure there are plenty of investors who will scoff at the thesis of
this article after reading the title. After all, in a free market economy the
equity markets are supposed to reflect investors’ perception of future
earnings. However, looking back over the past decade or so, it seems as if this
has rarely been the case. Rather, equity markets are mean-reverting mechanisms
that react to investors’ irrational levels of optimism or pessimism. Were
markets correctly pricing future earnings in March 2000 or October 2007? What
about in March of 2009? What about now?Over the last two months, the markets
have staged a massive rally in anticipation of another round of quantitative
easing. It seems as if most analysts, investors, and pundits have been praising
QE2 as the solution to all of our problems. Even worse, they are pretending as
if there are no possible negative repercussions or end to the rally in sight.
Personally, my favorite take on QE2 was Jim Cramer’s reckless analysis on
Thursday. My two favorite comments were “We're investing to make money, not
make predictions about the economy.” and “If you can buy stocks that rally like
they did today, because of this Bernanke plan, you can also sell those stocks
after they've rallied.” Both of these comments are completely absurd. His
audience is mostly amateur investors and frankly this is horrible advice.
Despite what I consider to be the absurdity of Cramer’s comments, they actually
echo much of investor sentiment right now. It is that sentiment that I plan to
refute in this article. The basis of my argument centers on the Fed’s decision
to announce further quantitative easing and what I believe that means for the
markets. Let me begin, though, by saying that quantitative easing is
complicated and has effects that will be felt around the globe. As such, it is
unreasonable to expect I could succinctly cover the topic in its entirety in
one article. Instead, I would like to call attention to a couple things I find
particularly troubling in the hopes of fostering an intelligent discussion.By
now, most investors should be well aware of the Fed’s intentions with
quantitative easing. Essentially, the Fed is expanding its balance sheet to
purchase treasuries in order to force interest rates even lower, prompting
greater investment in a variety of asset classes. This effect is achieved
because the Fed is printing money and driving the value of the dollar lower. A
weaker dollar means dollar-denominated asset prices will increase on a relative
basis. Further, a weak dollar means American made goods are cheaper overseas
and should help increase exports. The hope is that inflated asset prices will
give investors a “wealth effect”, leading to increased spending and job
creation. It is my understanding that this is quantitative easing in a
nutshell.My first concern is with the term “wealth effect”. It is not wealth
creation. Rather, the prices of the assets you own increase because they are
worth less in dollar terms. The hope that this will fool investors or
businesses discredits their intelligence. Certainly major corporations are not
this stupid. Most of them operate in many countries and are well aware of
currency effects. Even individual investors should be somewhat aware of the
inverse relationship between equities and the dollar, they have mentioned it on
CNBC everyday for the last five months. If anything, the Fed may be able to
fool amateur investors who take a more passive approach. However, this seems
counterproductive to the necessary deleveraging most Americans are still going
through. After watching the markets hit two-year highs Friday, I decided to
look a little deeper into the inverse relationship between equities and the
dollar. What I found was fairly surprising. On June 9th, 2010, the
Dollar Index futures hit a high of $88.91. They closed Friday at a low of
$76.76. In the past five months, the price has dropped 13.7%. Over that same
time period, the S&P 500 has moved from a close of $1055.69 on June 9th to
a high of $1225.85. The rise in the S&P 500 over the same time period was
16.1%, pretty close to the decrease in the dollar. I decided to calculate what
the S&P 500 would be worth today, based on the June 9th valuation of the
dollar. The answer? $1057.91, only 0.002% higher than 5 months ago when the
recent rally began. This helps to emphasize my point that the “wealth effect”
is merely an illusion and a lousy one at that. (I should note this is rough
math. I arrived at my valuation by taking the product of the fractional dollar
value and the closing price of the S&P 500 at the end of the time
period.)My second concern with further quantitative easing actually pertains to
its effect on the Americans who likely have no understanding of what the Fed is
doing – low-income, underemployed, and unemployed Americans. This group of
Americans is most accurately represented by the real unemployment rate, which
most experts peg between 15% and 20%. For these individuals, the “wealth
effect” is irrelevant. The majority are either dependent on unemployment
benefits or living paycheck-to-paycheck.Times are especially tough for this
segment of the American population and those problems are about to be
exacerbated by the rapid devaluation of the dollar. As I said earlier, a weaker
dollar means dollar-denominated asset prices will increase on a relative basis.
This increase includes the price of commodities like gas, food, clothing, etc.
In the same time period referenced above, heating oil futures have increased
19.5%, wheat futures have increased 70.1%, cotton futures have increased 74.7%,
and corn futures have increased 73.4%. I have placed the chart for cotton
futures below to illustrate this point. (chart) This increase in commodity
prices is being driven, in large part, because of the Feds systematic weakening
of the dollar. In the short-term, the spike in commodity prices will be offset
by hedges retailers and manufacturers likely have in place. However, in the
long-term these price increases will eventually be passed on to the consumer as
hedges expire. This, I believe, will be a pivotal point in the story of our
economic recovery. When these skyrocketing commodity prices get passed on to
the 15-20% of Americans that are really struggling to get by, they will have a
HUGE impact on their budgets and their quality of life. If wages are not able
to keep pace with rising costs, consumers will really be in a difficult
position. Simple economics will tell you if price increases outpace income
growth, demand will decrease. Argued another way, companies could absorb rising
costs to maintain demand, but the result would be shrinking profit margins.
Either way, I am of the belief that consumer staples and consumer discretionary
stocks in particular have a rough road ahead of them. The effect of rising
prices is not reflected in stock prices now, but it is my belief that this
realization will begin to sink in with analysts very soon. In fact, the Wall
St. Journal actually ran an article on Friday discussing this very problem. If
you’re interested you can read it here.Here is my understanding of the situation
and why I think the Fed is playing a very dangerous game. The Fed is printing
money to increase asset prices in the hope that people spend money they don’t
really have to create jobs. While these jobs would be based on artificial
demand, the hope is that lighting a spark would get the economy moving in the
right direction and the demand will eventually fill in as people with new jobs
begin to spend again. In the meantime, the Fed is racing rapidly increasing
commodity prices that will eventually be passed on to the consumer. In the end,
it all comes down to timing. In my opinion, the Fed is taking a very sizable
risk in the hopes it can time this spark correctly. If it fails, as a nation we
will have borrowed another $600 billion and will have little to show for
it.After watching the events of this past week unfold, I have turned decidedly
bearish on the markets. In the past few days I have heard far too many
comparisons to the 2000 tech bubble. Investors’ attitude seems to be if it
keeps going up, why not buy it and sell at the top to make a quick buck? People
are choosing to ignore the stagnant unemployment rate, the uptick in
unemployment claims, inflation that is trailing Fed targets, weak GDP growth,
and a host of other mediocre economic data. There are plenty of cliché sayings
that seem appropriate right now, but my favorite is Warren Buffett’s classic
idiom “be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy”.At
the end of last week I positioned myself quite short. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) is within 2.5% of its 2007 high, despite
a starkly different economic picture than three years ago. The ETFs that track
consumer discretionary (XLY)
and consumer staples (XLP)
are both trading right at their May 2009 highs and are not far off their 2007
highs. I’m positioning myself with puts on the QQQQ and a short position in the
XLY. I wanted to short the XLP as well but was unable to borrow the shares, so
I increased the size of my short position in the XLY. I also went short Netflix
(NFLX) after their 11% pop on earnings. The
company is currently trading at 65x earnings (TTM) and if I am correct in my
assumptions, Netflix will be subject to a harsher selloff relative to the
broader markets.As an interesting closing thought, when looking at the Nasdaq
100, I thought the recent weakness of the dollar might have had some effect in
its recent climb to 2007 highs. Quite the contrary, Dollar Index futures are
actually trading within 1% of their November 2007 price. The historical chart
below shows that the Dollar Index is essentially trading at the exact same
level it was right before the 2007 collapse of the equity markets. Essentially,
the market feels the Nasdaq 100 should only be trading at a discount of 2.5% to
its 2007 highs. I find that very disturbing given the many economic
uncertainties we have yet to resolve, let alone the fact we only reached 2007
highs because consumers were bingeing on cheap credit…just food for thought.’
Light Volume Shallow Selloff: Dave's Daily ‘…The important thing is markets are overbought and in need of
some corrective action even if it's sideways movement. After all, we've had a
big run and news from earnings and economic data are light. Equity markets hit
the skids early with the DJIA dropping 100
points early on government bank subpoenas.
But with another $6 billion in POMO
markets were able to mount a slow steady recovery throughout the day. And
speaking of subpoenas, Janet Tavakoli (Tavakoli Structured Finance) and I
discuss bank and mortgage fraud in
this video commentary. Not everyone is on board with the Fed's QE actions
especially from overseas; but, it was notable today that Fed
Governor Warsh issued a dissenting view as well. Despite a small rally in
the dollar, commodities were
mostly flat with the notable exception of precious metals -- with new highs in
gold and silver. Bonds rallied slightly. ‘
Velocity is just the dollar value of GDP that the
economy produces per dollar of monetary base. You can also think of
velocity as the number of times that one dollar “turns over” each year to
purchase goods and services in the economy. Rising velocity implies that money
is “turning over” more rapidly, so that nominal GDP is increasing faster than
the stock of money.
If velocity rises, holding the quantity of money constant,
you’ll observe either growth in real output or inflation. Falling velocity
implies that a given stock of money is being hoarded, so that nominal GDP is
growing slower than the stock of money. If velocity falls, holding the quantity
of money constant, you’ll observe either a decline in real GDP or
deflation.
The belief that an increase in the money supply will
result in an increase in GDP relies on the assumption that velocity will not
decline in proportion to the increase in money. Unfortunately for the
proponents of “quantitative easing,” this assumption fails spectacularly in the
data—both in the U.S. and internationally—particularly at a zero interest rate.
How to Spot a Liquidity Trap
The chart below plots the velocity of the U.S. monetary base against interest
rates since 1947. Since high money holdings correspond to low velocity, the
graph is simply the mirror image of the theoretical chart above.
Few theoretical relationships in economics hold quite
this well. Recall that a Keynesian liquidity trap occurs at the point when
interest rates become so low that cash balances are passively held regardless
of their size. The relationship between interest rates and velocity therefore
goes flat at low interest rates, since increases in the money stock simply
produce a proportional decline in velocity, without requiring any further
decline in yields. Notice the cluster of observations where the interest rate
is zero? Those are the most recent data points.
One might argue that while short-term interest rates
are essentially zero, long-term interest rates are not, which might leave some
room for a “Hicksian” effect from QE —that is, a boost to investment and
economic activity in response to a further decline in long-term interest rates.
The problem here is that longer-term interest rates, in an expectations sense,
are already essentially at zero. The remaining yield on longer-term bonds is a
risk premium that is commensurate with U.S. interest-rate volatility (Japanese
risk premiums are lower, but they also have nearly zero interest-rate
variability).
So QE at this point represents little but an effort
to drive risk premiums to levels that are inadequate to compensate investors
for risk. This is unlikely to go well. Moreover, as noted below, the precise
level of long-term interest rates is not the main constraint on borrowing here.
The key issues are the rational desire to reduce debt loads, and the inadequacy
of profitable investment opportunities in an economy flooded with excess
capacity.
One of the most fascinating aspects of the current
debate about monetary policy is the belief that changes in the money stock are
tightly related either to GDP growth or inflation at all. Look at the
historical data and you will find no evidence of it. Over the years, I’ve
repeatedly emphasized that inflation is primarily a reflection of fiscal policy—specifically,
growth in the outstanding quantity of government liabilities, regardless of
their form, in order to finance unproductive spending.
Look at the experience of the 1970s (which followed
large expansions in transfer payments), as well as every historical
hyperinflation, and you’ll find massive increases in government spending that
were made without regard to productivity (Germany’s hyperinflation, for
instance, was provoked by continuous wage payments to striking workers).
Likewise, real economic growth has no observable
correlation with growth in the monetary base (the correlation is actually
slightly negative but insignificant). Rather, economic growth is the result of
hundreds of millions of individual decision-makers, each acting in their best
interests to shift their consumption plans, saving, and investment in response
to desirable opportunities that they face. Their behavior cannot simply be
induced by changes in the money supply or in interest rates, absent those
desirable opportunities.
You can see why monetary-base manipulations have so
little effect on GDP by examining U.S. data since 1947. Expand the quantity
of base money, and it turns out that velocity falls in nearly direct
proportion. The cluster of points at the bottom right reflect the most
recent data.
[Geek's Note: The slope of the relationship plotted
above is approximately -1, while the Y intercept is just over 6%, which makes
sense, and reflects the long-term growth of nominal GDP, virtually independent
of variations in the monetary base.
For example, 6% growth in nominal GDP is consistent
with 0% M and 6% V, 5% M and 1% V, 10% M and -4% V, etc. There is somewhat more
scatter in 3-year, 2-year and 1-year charts, but it is random scatter.
If expansions in base money were correlated with predictably higher GDP growth,
and contractions in base money were correlated with predictably lower GDP
growth, the slope of the line would be flatter and the fit would still be
reasonably good. We don't observe this.]
Just to drive the point home, the chart below
presents the same historical relationship in Japanese data over the
past two decades. One wonders why anyone expects quantitative easing in the
U.S. to be any less futile than it was in Japan.
(chart)
Simply put, monetary policy is far less effective in
affecting real (or even nominal) economic activity than investors seem to
believe. The main effect of
a change in the monetary base is to change monetary velocity and short-term
interest rates. Once short-term interest rates drop to zero, further expansions
in base money simply induce a proportional collapse in velocity.
I should emphasize that the Federal Reserve does have
an essential role in providing liquidity during periods of crisis,
such as bank runs, when people are rapidly converting bank deposits into
currency. Undoubtedly, we would have preferred the Fed to have provided that
liquidity in recent years through open-market operations using Treasury
securities, rather than outright purchases of the debt securities of insolvent
financial institutions, which the public is now on the hook to make whole.
The Fed should not be in the insolvency bailout game.
Outside of open-market operations using Treasuries, Fed loans during a crisis
should be exactly that, loans – and preferably following Bagehot’s Rule (“lend
freely but at a high rate of interest”). Moreover, those loans must be senior
to any obligation to bank bondholders—the public’s claim should precede private
claims. In any event, when liquidity constraints are truly binding, the Fed has
an essential function in the economy.
At present, however, the governors of the Fed are
creating massive distortions in the financial markets with little hope of
improving real economic growth or employment. There is no question that the Fed
has the ability to affect the supply of base money, and can affect the level of
long-term interest rates, given a sufficient volume of intervention. The real
issue is that neither of these factors is currently imposing a binding
constraint on economic growth, so there is no benefit in relaxing them further.
The Fed is pushing on a string.
Excerpted from the November 5 issue of John Mauldin’s
Thoughts From The Frontline.
Come On!
Insiders selling (into the bubble as preceded last crash), this is an
especially great opportunity to sell / take profits! Suckers’ rally into the close off lows
to keep suckers suckered (easy for the wall street frauds to do with just a
mouse click / push of the button – and, they know all those technical trade
lines that are easy to program in this current phase of the scam / fraud with the
debased dollar). Keep in mind, the totally mindless blather from the ‘cottage
industries’ of and fraudulent wall street itself in talking up lower P/E
multiples when the same is a direct result of the debasement of the dollar and
the consequent manipulation / translation (not real, see Davis, infra) which
preceded the financial crisis / last crash. Unemployment, trade, deficit, etc.,
numbers continue decidedly worse than expected along with other negative data
(and in the ‘wrong direction’, that spin accorded ‘down but not as bad as
before’ b*** s*** ) yet the market has rallied like no tomorrow with used home
foreclosure / distressed sales, though abated owing to ‘foreclosuregate’, the
other ‘heralded’ good news. Moreover,
the dumbo lemmings of Europe have jumped on the fraudulent defacto bankrupt
american crazy train propelled to the precipice also as if no tomorrow. This is
about keeping the suckers sucked in with the help of a market-frothing
pre-election debased dollar for favorable currency translation and paper (but
not real when measured in, ie., gold, etc.) profits which preceded the last
crisis, inflating a bubble as in the last crisis to facilitate the
churn-and-earn, particularly with computerized (and high frequency) trades and
which commissions they’ll get again on the way down. There is nothing to
support these overbought stock prices, fundamentally or otherwise. These are
desperate criminals ‘at work’. Even wall street shill, the senile Buffett is
saying we’re still in a recession (depression) [ Davis: ‘… all
profits are inflated by 10% (from falling, debased dollar) and that 10% is the
E that gets divided from the P and gives us a much better price/multiple to
hang our hats on and that gets investors to BUYBUYBUY …’ The bull market
that never was / were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold
] This is a
great opportunity to sell / take profits (these lower dollar, hyperinflationary
currency manipulations / translations to froth paper stocks will end quite
badly as in last crash)! This
is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression.
The past up moves were manipulated bull (s***) cycles (at best) in a secular
bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the
prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders
commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street ‘programmed
computerized high-frequency churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as
in prior crashes ( widely reported,
high-frequency trading routinely accounts for more than 50% of daily U.S.
equity trading volume and regularly approaches 70%. )’. This national
decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the
wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and
disgorgement imposed.The Stock Market's
Long Decline Has Begun Smith ]
Fed Global Backlash Grows Wall Street Journal - NEW DELHI—Global controversy mounted over the Federal
Reserve's decision to pump billions of dollars into the US economy, with
President Barack Obama defending the move as China, Russia and the euro zone
added to a chorus of ... Obama Cranks Up Currency Heat on China as Gold, Oil Prices Soar
Fox News Fed's Stimulus Overshadows This Week's Economic Summit CNBC CNNMoney - New York Times -
Bloomberg -
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http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm
Fed
boosts markets where WH, Congress could not (Washington Post) [ Alas, poor
Mr. Irwin … we knew him … for a fleeting moment of departure from his
glass-half-full though empty days … that ephemeral lucidity that seems now lost
forever in Mr. Irwin … I mean, look at this headline … phrased as almost a
positive by implication … he’s hurting my eyes … after all, would you cheer a
bank robber who robs a bank then distributes the loot to his friends … well,
his friends will spend same and that loot was just sitting there … in the bank
… riiiiight! Like the moment of fleeting brilliance of the retard consummately
played by oscar-winner Cliff Robertson in ‘Charly’, let me just euphemistically
say that Mr. Irwin and those who purport to think his way as appears by his
less than incisive article are displaying a regressive thought pattern, at
best, and short-memories / stupidity at worst. Artificially boosting stock
prices (and commissions) by debasing currency is not the wh, congress, nor the
fed’s mission or purpose and will end quite badly as has always historically
been the case. Bill Fleckenstein Has Some Thoughts On
QE2: “These Idiots Think We Can Print Our Way To Prosperity” [ I disagree! I believe they are well aware
of the folly of their fraudulent and ultimately disastrous approach but are, as
in the last debacle, creating a fraudulent bubble for the wall street frauds
and insiders to sell into, which they are indeed doing as we speak. (INSIDER SELLING IS AT RECORD HIGHS)
(Another Nobel Economist Says We Have to Prosecute Fraud Or
Else the Economy Won’t Recover As economists such as William
Black and James Galbraith have repeatedly said, we cannot solve the economic
crisis unless we throw the criminals who committed fraud in jail. ) ]
Fed to pump $600B into the economy (Washington Post) [ Listen to this total, absolute b*** s*** … from
no-recession-helicopter ben shalom or b.s. for short, bernanke, with green
shoots wilting on the vine … to his recent ‘better to try and fail than to do
nothing at all’ … Balderdash! … I hearken back to a distinction made by the
brilliant Peter Drucker who in emphasizing the distinction between efficiency
and effectiveness states that being effective means doing the right things,
clearly not the case here … other than frothing that fraudulent wall street
market with high-frequency programmed trades and debased dollars he can’t seem
to print enough of, and for all but wall frauds churn and earn profits as they
retain their fraudulent gains from the last debacle and this one, his policies
are nothing short of disaster for this nation and the world. That money going
into wall street pockets has to come from somewhere … guess. Remember,
america’s defacto bankrupt and the consequences for those continuing frauds on
wall street don’t justify the irretrievable costs! ]
In addition to a question for Bloomberg TV anchor
Betty Lui, who asked Bill to “admit” that “the markets were in a better mood
yesterday after QE2,” which is simply this: “Betty? Betty? Betty? How about in
summer 2008, 2007, were the markets in a good mood? Were the markets in a good
mood then?” [ Quite
right! The same pattern that preceded the last crash. Falling dollar, high
volume programmed high frequency trades to the upside creating an even larger,
gravity-defying bubble for the wall street frauds and insiders to sell
into. They’re not too big or important to fail and jail! Prospective
economic health depends on that reality! ] ]
Employers
add 151K jobs, most since May (Washington Post) [ And you can take that to your insolvent bank (Banks in Md, Calif shuttered; 141 failures in '10
-
AP) . After all, if the
defacto bankrupt american gov’t’s labor department says it, it must be true
(although new record for that ‘stopped looking’ fudge factor as well. People Who “Want A Job Now” Jumps To Second Highest Ever
As Persons Not In Labor Force Reaches Record Some more facts emerging
from a look at two more sub-headline indicators: the persons not in the labor
force, which we noted in the prior post, is now at the highest ever, at
84,626K, an increase of 462K from September.)]
Caught In A Lie: Bernanke Promised Congress The Federal
Reserve Would Not Monetize The Debt But Now That Is Exactly What Is Happening On
June 3rd, 2009 Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke promised the U.S. Congress
that the Federal Reserve would not monetize the debt of the U.S. government.
Why You Shouldn't Invest in American Stocks
Daily Short-Term, High-Probability Mean Reversion
Indicator: ETFs in Extreme Overbought State
Stocks Rise To End This Ridiculously Exhausting Week:
Here's What You Need To Know , On Friday November 5, 2010, We
don't blame you if you left your desk at 8:31 today, the minute after the jobs
report came out [ Ridiculous is the word. Is anyone foolish enough to believe
anything the u.s. labor department has to say? After all, these are desperate
criminals; that corrupt government / fraudulent wall street axis. Totally
preposterous! Then of course on top of
what is described infra as ‘yesterday was the most terrifying bull rally ever,
as every last thing that wasn't the dollar went berserk. It felt like a mini-Zimbabwe day’. Zimbabweans are pikers compared to
defacto bankrupt america’s current third-world scam / fraud! ] It was a ridiculously busy week, what with
the election and FOMC and jobs report.
Banks in Md, Calif shuttered; 141 failures in '10
- AP
Do As I Say No Matter What I Do ‘…Stocks are a
more difficult conundrum. If the Fed wants ‘em higher, then they may well be
able to push them higher for a while until they crack and collapse. But the
time to crack and collapse is inherently unstable (for two excellent
explorations of this phenomenon, see Why Stock Markets Crash: Critical Events in Complex
Financial Systems
and the more-accessible Ubiquity: Why Catastrophes Happen).
I am naturally risk-averse, although even investors with a greater risk
tolerance should also respond to uncertainty by decreasing bet size (see my discussion of the Kelly Criterion here)
…’
Trading Has Become Exuberant Pierce
“if folks really understood what was going on they would be
pissed. but most are happy to spot breakouts.” @marketmonk
“Anyone else feel like we are on a freight train headed for a
cliff? Oh look the transports are up.” @docjck
Yesterday
was an amazingly fantastic day if you’re long. Frustrating day if you were in
cash. Disastrous day if you were short. What can anybody say about yesterday’s
reaction to the Fed news except that it appears we’re headed towards a severe
inflationary environment that could be our own demise. I believe those 2 tweets
above really capture the essence of where we stand after a $600 billion band
aid. I’d be curious what the interest ends up being after it’s paid back. Does
anybody ever think of that? Commodities are speaking…can you hear them? My
watchlist exploded yesterday with the amount of stocks I’m adding to it. You
can see the ones that made the cut here. Normally it’s a great thing to add
stocks that I’m interested in buying, but there comes a point where too many is
a sign that something bad is about to happen. It reminds me of this story from
a biology class in College. My professor had a jar where he placed some sort of
micro-organism that reproduced and they doubled their amount everyday. After 21
days there was such a high number inside this jar, that there wasn’t enough
space to live. The 22nd day they all died because when they doubled again there
just wasn’t enough space to accommodate them all. For some reason it feels like
we’re on that path with money creation, inflation…even our own population
growth if you want to parallel the two stories…’
Bank Holiday Rumors Swirl Amidst Currency Crisis Paul Joseph Watson | Fed’s “mad experiment”
in dollar debasement stokes fresh jitters.
Bank Holiday Rumors Swirl Amidst Currency Crisis With
the world on the verge of a currency war as the Federal Reserve follows through
on its dollar-killing quantitative easing program, rumors are once again
swirling of a “bank holiday,” during which US citizens will be prevented from
withdrawing money or at least limited in the amount of the withdrawal they can
make.
Asian Nations Are Already Teaming Up To Protect Themselves
From The “Bernanke Super-Put” “Bernanke super-put” is the excellent
phrase Ambrose Evans-Pritchard uses to describe the latest round of QE.
National /
World
UN, Soros Push Global Tax To Fight Man-Made Climate Change
A top UN panel on Friday called for increased taxes on carbon
emissions and air and sea transport to raise 100 billion dollars a year to
combat climate change.
Drudgereport:
OCTOBER
UNEMPLOYMENT REMAINS AT 9.6%... ADDED 151,000 JOBS
Labor Force Participation Rate Drops To 25 Year Low, At 64.5%...
Oil above $87...
Boehner: First cut should be lawmakers' salaries...
House GOP Promises Democrats Chance to Offer Spending
Amendments...
BACKLASH BUILDS AGAINST FED PUMPING...
'Dollar
at Risk of Crashing, Triggering Inflation'...
Brazil ready to retaliate for US move in 'currency war'...
CHINA WARNS FED MOVE 'HUGE RISK'...
Germany
Concerned...
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http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm
Another Nobel Economist Says We
Have to Prosecute Fraud Or Else the Economy Won’t Recover As
economists such as William Black and James Galbraith have repeatedly said, we
cannot solve the economic crisis unless we throw the criminals who committed
fraud in jail. ‘Washington’s Blog Nov 4th, 2010 As economists such as
William Black and James Galbraith have repeatedly said, we cannot solve the
economic crisis unless we throw the criminals who committed fraud in jail. And
Nobel prize winning economist George Akerlof has demonstrated that failure to
punish white collar criminals – and instead bailing them out- creates
incentives for more economic crimes and further destruction of the economy in
the future. See this, this and this. Nobel prize winning economist Joseph
Stiglitz just agreed. As Stiglitz told Yahoo’s Daily Finance on October 20th:
This is a really important point to understand from the point of view of our
society. The legal system is supposed to be the codification of our norms and
beliefs, things that we need to make our system work. If the legal system is
seen as exploitative, then confidence in our whole system starts eroding. And
that’s really the problem that’s going on. *** A lot of the predatory practices
in automobile loans are going to be able to be continued. Why is it OK to
engage in bad lending in automobiles and not in the mortgage market? Is there
any principle? We all know the answer to that. No, there’s no principle. It’s
money. It’s campaign contributions, lobbying, revolving door, all of those
kinds of things *** The system is designed to actually encourage that kind of
thing, even with the fines [referring to former Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozillo,
who recently paid tens of millions of dollars in fines, a small fraction of
what he actually earned, because he earned hundreds of millions.]. I know so
many people who say it’s an outrage that we had more accountability in the
’80’s with the S&L crisis than we are having today. Yeah, we fine them, and
what is the big lesson? Behave badly, and the government might take 5% or 10%
of what you got in your ill-gotten gains, but you’re still sitting home pretty
with your several hundred million dollars that you have left over after paying
fines that look very large by ordinary standards but look small compared to the
amount that you’ve been able to cash in. *** So the system is set so that even
if you’re caught, the penalty is just a small number relative to what you walk
home with. The fine is just a cost of doing business. It’s like a parking fine.
Sometimes you make a decision to park knowing that you might get a fine because
going around the corner to the parking lot takes you too much time. ***I think
we ought to go do what we did in the S&L [crisis] and actually put many of
these guys in prison. Absolutely. These are not just white-collar crimes or
little accidents. There were victims. That’s the point. There were victims all
over the world. *** So do we have any confidence that these guys who got us
into the mess have really changed their minds? Actually we have pretty [good]
confidence that they have not. I’ve seen some speeches where they said,
“Nothing was really wrong. We didn’t get things quite right. But our
understanding of the issues is pretty sound.” If they think that, then we
really are in a sorry mess. *** There are many aspects of [deterring people
from committing crime]. Economists focus on the whole notion of incentives.
People have an incentive sometimes to behave badly, because they can make more
money if they can cheat. If our economic system is going to work then we have
to make sure that what they gain when they cheat is offset by a system of
penalties. And that’s why, for instance, in our antitrust law, we often don’t
catch people when they behave badly, but when we do we say there are treble
damages. You pay three times the amount of the damage that you do. That’s a
strong deterrent. Unfortunately, what we’ve been doing now, and more recently
in these financial crimes, is settling for fractions – fractions! – of the
direct damage, and even a smaller fraction of the total societal damage. That
is to say, the financial sector really brought down the global economy and if
you include all of that collateral damage, it’s really already in the trillions
of dollars. But there’s a broader sense of collateral damage that I think that
has not really been taken on board. And that is confidence in our legal system,
in our rule of law, in our system of justice. When you say the Pledge of
Allegiance you say, with “justice for all.” People aren’t sure that we have
justice for all. Somebody is caught for a minor drug offense, they are sent to
prison for a very long time. And yet, these so-called white-collar crimes,
which are not victimless, almost none of these guys, almost none of them, go to
prison. *** Let me give you another example of where the legal system has
gotten very much out of whack, and which contributed to the financial crisis.
In 2005, we passed a bankruptcy reform. It was a reform pushed by the banks. It
was designed to allow them to make bad loans to people to who didn’t understand
what was going on, and then basically choke them. Squeeze them dry. And we
should have called it, “the new indentured servitude law.” Because that’s what
it did. Let me just tell you how bad it is. I don’t think Americans understand
how bad it is. It becomes really very difficult for individuals to discharge
their debt. The basic principle in the past in America was people should have
the right for a fresh start. People make mistakes. Especially when they’re
preyed upon. And so you should be able to start afresh again. Get a clean
slate. Pay what you can and start again. Now if you do it over and over again
that’s a different thing. But at least when there are these lenders preying on
you should be able to get a fresh start. But they [the banks] said, “No, no,
you can’t discharge your debt,” or you can’t discharge it very easily. *** This
is indentured servitude. And we criticize other countries for having indentured
servitude of this kind, bonded labor. But in America we instituted this in 2005
with almost no discussion of the consequences. But what it did was encourage
the banks to engage in even worse lending practices. *** The banks want to
pretend that they did not make bad loans. They don’t want to come into reality.
The fact that they were very instrumental in changing the accounting standards,
so that loans that are impaired where people are not paying back what they owe,
are treated as if they are just as good as a well-performing mortgage. So the
whole strategy of the banks has been to hide the losses, muddle through and get
the government to keep interest rates really low. *** The result of this is, as
long as we keep up this strategy, it’s going to be a long time before the
economy recovers …’
Dollar Shrinkage:
Dave's Daily INSIDER SELLING IS
AT RECORD HIGHS - ‘I gotta do something different right? It seems
every report and blog is writing about what a great day this was for markets.
It was except for low volume. Overseas governments don't like the dollar
shrinkage one little bit. A currency war is the likely result. Oh,
and before we get too optimistic (we're long too you know) its reported insider selling is
at record highs--like, what do they know? Meanwhile with the big
rally day for stocks and just about everything else priced in dollars. (Even
bond prices rose!) It's all about the Fed wanting higher asset prices and that
means stocks too. Forget about the PPT. The important thing when it comes to
the Fed's monetary policies is for every action there's a reaction. They know
that raising stock prices is good for 401Ks. It makes people feel better so
they'll shop more and maybe even buy a house. And, forget about employment data
since the unemployed have been left out on the ice with a few worthless dollars
to buy food. As stated, volume was light for this type of day and reflects the
absence of retail investors who continue to withdraw sums from equities. What
good is inflation if they're sitting in low-yielding bonds? Breadth was
positive naturally but not a 90/10 day.’
5 Promises
That Money Printing Can't Fulfill - Pento ‘It seems the current Chairman of the Federal
Reserve is of the belief that diluting the dollar is the cure for everything
from a recession to male pattern baldness. And like other snake-oil salesmen
before him, Mr. Bernanke is heavy on promises and light on results. Here are
five prescriptions that money printing can't fulfill:
Unlike the snake oil of printed money, these genuine
therapies take time and effort, and sometimes have painful side effects. The
quack remedies offered by Dr. Bernanke promise to cure all ills with no effort
on the part of the patient. If the measures I propose are established in
concert, we would lay the groundwork upon which to rebuild the country's
goods-producing sector. If allowed to flourish, manufacturing can create the
needed jobs to lower the long-term unemployment rate and restore the county's
economic vitality. The Fed's plan, by contrast, has only one predictable
consequence: inflation. Indeed, Bernanke has already been remarkably successful
in sending asset prices higher. Not only are most commodities soaring in dollar
terms, but the broader measures of the money supply have started to surge as
well. The compounded annual rates of change in MZM and M2 over the last month
are 13.3% and 9.1% respectively. The prices-paid component of the September ISM
manufactures survey jumped to 71, and the YoY increase in the PPI is 4%. Sure,
we can look to the Dow or the stabilization of home prices and say the Fed's
magic is working, but just because the headache has gone away doesn't mean
you've cured the stroke. We can look to the inflation indicators to see that
the Fed has failed to stop the bleeding.
Remember, the Fed is now printing dollars to purchase
the bulk of US Treasuries at auction, in a process called debt monetization.
It is that process of the Fed expanding the money supply to subsidize federal
debt that is causing domestic prices to surge. It will not be very long before
the consumer acutely suffers from this dangerous policy. On this point, history
is clear: inflation has caused the destruction of every middle class and every
economy that has sought it as a solution. There are no quick fixes to our
current economic predicament, but there are fixes. It's up to the American
people to decide they've had enough of Ben 'Rasputin' Bernanke and they're
ready for some tough medicine. When that happens, I've got some great
specialists to recommend.’
Financial
Improprieties Abound as Stocks Rally , On Thursday November 4, 2010, 6:53 pm EDT Throughout mankind's history, scales have
been a symbol of equality. As much as commoners rely on scales to be treated
fairly, 'ueber commoners' try to escape the scales of justice and equality and
want to be measured by different and better standards. In his Gettysburg
Address, Abraham Lincoln exhorted his listeners to ensure the survival of a
government of the people, by the people, for the people. It seems like survival
of the fittest like forces have turned a government of, by and for the people
into a government of, for and by special interest groups. No More Robin
Hood This week we read that even the Robin Hood of investors, creates
his own rules. Warren Buffett - the only candidate to even remotely resemble a
Robin Hood of Wall Street - had a friendly exchange with the SEC about the
treatment of actual losses.Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway was sitting on
$1.86 billion in losses caused by declining Kraft and US Bancorp stock. The
losses were more than 12 months old and according to current accounting rules
had to be written down.Perhaps Warren had seen how Wall Street is allowed to
bend accounting rules to its favor (more about that in a moment) and thought:
'what they can do I can do better.'In short, Berkshire didn't write down the $1.86
billion in losses because ... drum roll ... as Berkshire's Chief Financial
Officer Marc Hamburg's reasoned:'We believe it is reasonably possible that the
market prices of Kraft Foods and U.S. Bancorp will recover to our cast within
the next one to two years assuming that there are no material adverse events
affecting these companies or the industries in which they operate.'In other
words, Berkshire didn't want to write down losses, because under the right
circumstances there's a fair chance that stock prices will recover.Perfect
Conditions - 100% ProfitabilityOf course, under the right conditions
any loss could reverse itself. But, because we don't live in a perfect world,
we have accounting rules. The final numbers are designed to help investors
evaluate a company's current financial health.If the Doctor tells you that you
have high cholesterol, do you tell him: 'Don't worry, under the perfect
conditions I'll eat only raw vegetables,' when in reality you live on burgers
and fries and should be on a double dose of cholesterol meds?Interestingly -
and very smartly - Warren Buffett's new knight - Todd Combs - has stolen the
headlight and absorbed the attention of what otherwise could turn into a
full-fledged accounting scandal.Further ImplicationsCourtesy of
the post-2007 credit contraction, Wall Street Banksters, the administration,
and reputable companies have become quite adept at the denial and cover up
approach.Case in point, Fannie and Freddie. In 2008, management for the ailing
housing giant denied financial trouble. On Sunday, September 7, 2008, the
government seized control of Fannie and Freddie. Nevertheless, stocks rallied
on Monday the morning after.Despite stock's (NYSEArca: VTI - News) party mood, the ETF Profit
Strategy Newsletter considered banks (NYSEArca: KBE - News) and financial institutions
(NYSEArca: XLF - News) a 'downward spiral with no
stop-loss provision' and predicted Dow (DJI: ^DJI) 7,500 previously in
September 2008.As stocks quickly tumbled to Dow 7,500, the government became
desperate. Real estate related losses were piling up; investors lost confidence
in the financial system and drove Washington Mutual out of business.The problem
was too big to fix, so the administration forced the Financial Accounting
Standards Board to change rule 157. Obviously, the fix is only topical. If it
wasn't, why would Fannie and Freddie need an additional $215 billion in aid?The
'new and improved' rule 157 allowed Banksters to value assets at what they
might be worth in the future. If bank A purchased a portfolio of real estate
(NYSEArca: IYR - News) for $10 million in 2006 and lost
$6 million because the assets turned toxic, bank A is allowed to value the
portfolio just below $10 million. The very real loss is not included in the
current earnings numbers.Can You Trust EarningsThe real
question is whether you can trust reported earnings? If Berkshire, along with
most banks and financial conglomerates, has the legal right to fudge their
earnings we may rightly wonder who else is employing this convenient accounting
trick? Some would call them stupid if they didn't.Ironically, Citigroup's
profits exceeded estimates because they reduced bad loan provisions. JPMorgan
on the other hand expects mortgage buybacks (related to the foreclosure
disaster) to cost lenders $120 billion.To emphasize, Citigroup reducing its bad
loan reserves would be like an insurance company reducing its natural disaster
fund right before hurricane season.Be that as it may, the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC),
Dow Jones (NYSEArca: DIA - News), and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC)
continue to rally. The Nasdaq 100 (Nasdaq: QQQQ - News) has already shot past its April
2010 recovery high, while the Dow and S&P (NYSEArca: IVV - News) are within striking distance.Expect
the Unexpected Following a horrendous August, investors were expecting
a terrible September and/or October. The opposite happened.As we approach
November, we hear that this month usually kicks off the most profitable time of
the year. Fourth quarter institutional cash inflows tend to result in the best
consecutive three-month period.As we've discussed here in the past,
institutions are not the only ones that provide liquidity right now. The
Federal Reserve via its POMO purchases is another one (detailed analysis
available in the November issue of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter). This extra liquidity is
not to be underestimated.An Extra Black Swan As we've
experienced many times, the market tends to surprise the investing masses -
most of which are bullish right now…’
National / World
Drudgereport:
UP. UP, UP: Stocks at Highest Since LEHMAN's Fall...
Jobless
claims higher...
Oil six-month high...
Gold new high...
BACKLASH BUILDS AGAINST FED
PUMPING
Pelosi Seriously Considers Staying as Dem
Leader … [Nothing succeeds like failure in defacto bankrupt, pervasively
corrupt america]...
WHITE HOUSE FACES INVESTIGATIONS...
No shredding documents...
New House Judiciary Chairman to Obama:
Prepare...
Washington, Alaska Senate races still up in the air;
10 House races uncalled...
CT guv race mired in controversy; AP rescinds call for
Dem...
Bag of Uncounted Ballots Found in totally corrupt,
dead city of Bridgeport, CT...
Brazil ready to retaliate for US move in 'currency
war'...
CHINA WARNS FED MOVE 'HUGE RISK'...
Germany
Concerned...
Go to following pages for
above links:
http://www.albertpeia.com/currentopics2ndqtr10108.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com
http://www.scribd.com/alpeia
http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm
Alleged
Afghan voting fraud to be investigated The Afghan attorney general's office
has begun investigating nine cases in which election officials are accused of rigging
votes.
Global
impact of U.S. elections
Foreign
Policy: A Plan B for Obama
(Washington Post) [ Plan B? Come
on! … Either he’s on plan z or has no plan at all! ] World
capitals brace for a new political order in Washington, as policymakers and
analysts tried to assess the impact on foreign policy of a new Republican-led
U.S. House. Foreign
Policy: The China election [ China
election? Don’t make me laugh! Almost as big a joke as american elections! (I
realize the article wasn’t about an ‘election’ (hmm … riiiiight) in China per
se, but wanted to make the albeit indirect point.)]
Fed
to pump $600B into the economy (Washington Post) [ Listen to this total, absolute b*** s***
… from no-recession-helicopter ben shalom or b.s. for short, bernanke, with
green shoots wilting on the vine … to his recent ‘better to try and fail than
to do nothing at all’ … Balderdash! … I hearken back to a distinction made by
the brilliant Peter Drucker who in emphasizing the distinction between
efficiency and effectiveness states that being effective means doing the right
things, clearly not the case here … other than frothing that fraudulent wall
street market with high-frequency programmed trades and debased dollars he
can’t seem to print enough of, and for all but wall frauds churn and earn
profits as they retain their fraudulent gains from the last debacle and this
one, his policies are nothing short of disaster for this nation and the world.
That money going into wall street pockets has to come from somewhere … guess.
Remember, america’s defacto bankrupt and the consequences for those continuing
frauds on wall street don’t justify the irretrievable costs! ]
Much Ado About Nothing?: Dave's
Daily ‘…How much more
tension can you give investors and still wind up with just a little "stick
save" to close the session? Color me disappointed over the lack of any
entertainment value Wednesday. Frankly, often markets will react to Fed
decisions a day later which makes Thursday perhaps more interesting. The
election results came in about as advertised. Then the Fed's QE decision
offered greater stimulus than expected but that didn't seem to move equity
markets. Bond markets were volatile as the yield curve rose sharply since the
Fed is focusing their buying on shorter-term securities. Commodity prices were
mixed as precious metals were sold while the dollar fell somewhat. This was a
rather strange or unusual result. Earnings were still rolling-in better than
expected while economic data was also better than expected (ISM, ADP, and
Factory Orders). We still have Friday's unemployment report but the Fed is
already done for now so who cares? Oh, and just to keep us interested, the GM IPO is about to hit markets to the tune of
$13 billion. It will be interesting to see how that goes. The selling group
will be calling in a few favors and wringing some hands to get this sucker off
the ground…’
Forget
the Short Term Questions, We're Actually in the Eye of a Very Long Storm Seeking Alpha
'Buy
the Dip' Becomes 'Buy the Rip' Roche ‘… This evening’s early polling data
shows the GOP making big gains in the House and possibly taking the Senate. Wall
Street loves the news as it means a return to the good old days of no
regulation, low taxes and essentially all the things that helped cause this
situation in the first place. Curiously, this has been just about the most
widely anticipated event in months if not years so it’s odd to see this rush
into risk assets as the news comes out….This was widely expected to be a “sell
the news” event …’
Feeling
Sanguine About Stocks? Bullish Complacency Has Reached an Extreme Jack
Sparrow [ Yeah, Captain Jack knows pirated plunder when he sees it … ie.,
he points out the reason for bullishness being price-earnings multiples; yet,
as set for infra and by Davis infra, earnings have been inflated by the debased
dollar currency which lowers, quite substantially and artificially,
price-earnings ratios and is a significant factor in security analysis relating
to quality of said earnings and a substantial negative for valuations, which
reality as preceded the last crash is not discounted at all in the current /
continuing bubble-fraud.] ‘Feeling sanguine about stocks? Here is a data point
that should give you pause. Via the AAII and James Mackintosh at the FT, holdings
of cash are now at their lowest levels since March of 2000.
“If that date sounds familiar,” adds Mackintosh, “it should. The dot com bubble
was just about to pop, and the S&P 500 hit levels not reached again for
seven years.” (chart).
Mackintosh further highlights the “bull-bear spread” (blue line) as plotted
against the S&P 500 (red line) in the multi-year chart above The bull-bear spread is a basic contrary
indicator that is most valuable at extremes. When bulls greatly
outnumber bears — as represented by spikes in the spread — the market tends to
run out of gas. This makes sense because, when optimism peaks, those
with an urge to buy have mostly done so. Conversely, the bull-bear spread did a
great job of highlighting the March 2009 lows, which came at a pessimistic
extreme. As you can see, at current levels, the bull-bear spread is at
record highs (with cash holdings at decade lows). Complacency is rampant.
So why haven’t stocks roared even more? Because a good portion of that
bullishness has been focused on corporate credit markets alongside equities.
Bulls argue that the S&P is still reasonably priced, based on a forward
earnings multiple in the 12.5 range. But this assumption depends on a far more
speculative one — that corporate earnings have not hit a cyclical peak.
The twin threats of post-stimulus slowdown and housing double dip threaten this
belief. What really matters now is whether the U.S. economy is in true recovery
or not. If the answer is “yes,” then the Fed is behind the curve and QE2 will
serve as just another inflationary paper asset boost. If the answer is
“no,” then the great body of evidence suggests QE2 will fail — and
investors will be punished harshly for taking their complacency to such
extremes.’
The
Fed No Longer Cares About Hiding The Fact It Is Killing The Dollar A number
of prominent figures within the financial world are warning that a second round
of quantitative easing, expected to be announced today by the Federal Reserve,
will have disastrous consequences for the US dollar and the global economy.
Pace
of recovery remains unclear (Washington Post) [ What recovery? (Even wall street shill, the senile Buffett is saying
we’re still in a recession (depression). Buffett: We're
Still in a Recession ) ? The resurgence in the wall
street fraud ] QE2
Is Not A Recovery Plan, It’s A Stealthy Scheme To Prepare For The Next Bank
Bailout [ Next bailout? How ‘bout
they’re still working on the last one … you know, that now ‘marked to anything’
multi-trillion dollar thing … I think people fail to recognize / realize /
appreciate the magnitude of the last / continuing fraud by the criminally
insane lunatics on wall street and accomplices. See infra. ] Federal (that says it all … NOT) report on
manufacturing provides a glimmer of encouragement. [ This
is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits! Suckers’ rally into the close to keep suckers suckered
(easy for the wall street frauds to do with just a mouse click / push of the
button). Keep in mind, the totally mindless blather from the ‘cottage
industries’ of and fraudulent wall street itself in talking up lower P/E
multiples when the same is a direct result of the debasement of the dollar and
the consequent manipulation / translation (not real, see Davis, infra) which
preceded the financial crisis / last crash. Unemployment, trade, deficit, etc.,
numbers continue decidedly worse than expected along with other negative data
(and in the ‘wrong direction’, that spin accorded ‘down but not as bad as
before’ b*** s*** ) yet the market has rallied like no tomorrow with used home
foreclosure / distressed sales, though abated owing to ‘foreclosuregate’, the
other ‘heralded’ good news. Moreover,
the dumbo lemmings of Europe have jumped on the fraudulent defacto bankrupt
american crazy train propelled to the precipice also as if no tomorrow. This is
about keeping the suckers sucked in with the help of a market-frothing
pre-election debased dollar for favorable currency translation and paper (but
not real when measured in, ie., gold, etc.) profits which preceded the last
crisis, inflating a bubble as in the last crisis to facilitate the
churn-and-earn, particularly with computerized (and high frequency) trades and
which commissions they’ll get again on the way down. There is nothing to
support these overbought stock prices, fundamentally or otherwise. These are
desperate criminals ‘at work’. Even wall street shill, the senile Buffett is
saying we’re still in a recession (depression) [ Davis: ‘… all profits are inflated by 10% (from falling,
debased dollar) and that 10% is the E that gets divided from the P and gives us
a much better price/multiple to hang our hats on and that gets investors to
BUYBUYBUY …’ The bull market that never was / were beyond wall
street b.s. when measured in gold ] This is an
especially great opportunity to sell / take profits (these lower dollar,
hyperinflationary currency manipulations / translations to froth paper stocks
will end quite badly as in last crash)! This
is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression.
The past up moves were manipulated bull (s***) cycles (at best) in a secular
bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the
prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders
commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street ‘programmed
computerized high-frequency churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as
in prior crashes ( widely reported, high-frequency trading routinely
accounts for more than 50% of daily U.S. equity trading volume and regularly
approaches 70%. )’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end
until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally
prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.The Stock Market's
Long Decline Has Begun Smith ]
National / World
Go to following pages for
above links:
http://www.albertpeia.com/currentopics2ndqtr10108.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com
http://www.scribd.com/alpeia
http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm
Memoir:
Bush debated dropping Cheney (Washington Post) [ More unequivocal proof that moron dumbya bush
couldn’t, like wobama and recent predecessors, make the right decision even if
their presidencies and the nation’s survival depended on it. Heck uv a job
brownie, bushie, cheney, wobamie, etc…. Keep up those nation bankrupting,
attention-diverting wars you knucklehead war criminals, you. ]
Equities
Up as Street Bets on Fed Efforts, Congressional Shift [ The fraud
continues …Come on! What total b*** s***! ]
Houdini Had Nothing on
This (Suckers’) Rally
Farrish ‘The rally lasted about thirty minutes and then worry took
center stage. The NASDAQ gave up a twenty-five point gain which was within
three points of the April high. The S&P 500 index gave back twelve points
and barely ended the day positive. Was this the final attempt to reach the
April highs before the reality of what has been the driver hits the headlines?
Since the low on August 27th, quantitative easing and the election have been
two of the driving factors in the move. In fact, many believe this to be
nothing more than a liquidity rally. Factoring in the economic data one would
have to give that argument serious consideration.The Fed announced on August
27th that it was considering another round of quantitative easing to stimulate
the economy. The increased money supply is intended to reduce rates and keep
freely flowing to stimulate growth through low interest rate loans. The
argument for or against such efforts have been debated endlessly in the press
over the last five weeks and the anticipation has prompted a 13% rally in the
broad markets. It has accomplished the feat without a single draw-down of more
than 2% since the move higher began. In the process of this accomplishment the
dollar has declined 7% paying the price for proposed Fed actions.What I find
interesting to this point, the Fed hasn’t taken any action, nor have they
defined what action they may take moving forward. In other words speculation
has been the driving factor in this broad market gain of 13% since the last
FOMC meeting. Without supply any additional liquidity, the Fed has accomplished
growth in the equity markets. Sounds like, “buy on the rumor” is in play. Some interesting stats:
Last Friday the Q3 GDP report was a 2% gain. If the economy is growing at 2% and the above stats are the results, Houdini is in charge of the markets. I will be so bold as to say the market is overbought based on the current data. If investors are looking forward and anticipating accelerating growth, Q4 GDP growth estimates are currently 2.3%.China continues to grow despite the efforts to slow their economy. The manufacturing data released yesterday showed better than expected growth despite the restriction place on lending and available credit. Interesting that the US markets rally on proposed easing and essentially free money, while the Chinese markets rally on stronger economic growth. Maybe Bernanke really is Houdini!Tomorrow we should get the facts to go along with the speculation. The conclusion of the FOMC meeting is supposed to produce details on how much free money the Fed will produce to stimulate speculative growth in the US stock market (sorry I mean economy). The details will prove supportive of the growth which has taken place since the August 27th announcement or it will be disappointing and prompt a retraction of the growth. Either way all eyes will be fixated on the release at 2:15 PM.Today is all about the midterm elections. To make it easier on the networks there are no economic reports to get in the way. The only surprise awaiting the results will be how many seats are lost in the House and Senate by Democrats. Regardless the end result will leave all of the primary questions unanswered. But at least we can return to the normal mindless commercials on TV versus the mindless rambling about the “other” candidate. Should make for interesting headlines tomorrow.I do have one question that has been haunting me this entire election season…, why is it considered ‘extreme’ to call for a balanced budget act from Congress, but it is normal to pass a Congressional budget for 2011 that has a deficit of 1.3 trillion dollars? … ’
National /
World
World Series: San Fran fans reaction Fox Sports [ I became a fan of
San Fran the minute I saw dumbya bush bumbling around and particularly when I
saw poppy and dumbya on the mound as dumbya threw that ball … Congratulations,
‘Giants! ]
Drudgereport:
REPUBLICANS
WIN SENATE SEATS: AL, AR, AZ, FL, GA, IA, ID, IL, IN, OH, OK, KY, KS, LA, MO,
ND, NH, PA, SC, SD, WI...
DEMS WIN: CA, CT, DE, HI, MD,
NY, WV...
TOO CLOSE TO CALL: NV...
REPUBLICAN
WINS OBAMA'S OLD SENATE SEAT...
JERRY
BROWN IN...
BOXER
IN...
BARNEY
FRANK IN...
RUSS
FEINGOLD OUT...
GOP
celebrates...
DETAILS,
MAP: GOVERNOR RACES...
DETAILS,
MAP: HOUSE RACES...
New
Black Panther Returns to Same Polling Place? Jerry Jackson, the same New Black Panther member who
intimidated voters in 2008 back at the same polling station, instructs voter to
vote straight Democrat, then proceeds to threaten same voter.
Bernanke
Faces More Congressional Scrutiny After Republican Election Gains...
PUMP:
Fed Likely to Announce $500 Billion of Purchases...
'Biggest
decision in decades'...
Fed easing
may means 20% drop of dollar value...
'The
end of dollar hegemony'...
AIG
moves ahead with efforts to repay taxpayers (Washington Post) (Oh come on!
… Wake up! … Are you really going to spin business reality in america into some
magnanimous gesture on the part new york sinkhole-based aig … The
Calm Before the Storm: Are We Approaching a Turning Point for the U.S. Economy? [ The essence of the current scam / fraud is
succinctly set forth thusly, albeit tepidly …
Snyder ‘…You
see, the truth is that "quantitative easing" is not only just a way
to stimulate the economy, it is also a way to give backdoor bailouts to the big
banks without having to go through the U.S. Congress. In a previous article, I described how this
works....
1) The
big U.S. banks have massive quantities of junk mortgage-backed securities that
are worth little to nothing that they desperately want to get rid of.
2) They
convince the Federal Reserve (which the big banks are part-owners of) to buy up
these "toxic assets" at significantly above market price.
3) The
Federal Reserve creates massive amounts of money out of thin air to buy up all
of these troubled assets. The public is told that all of this
"quantitative easing" is necessary to stimulate the U.S. economy.
The
Calm Before the Storm: Are We Approaching a Turning Point for the U.S. Economy? [ The essence of the current scam / fraud is
succinctly set forth thusly, albeit tepidly … Snyder ‘…You
see, the truth is that "quantitative easing" is not only just a way
to stimulate the economy, it is also a way to give backdoor bailouts to the big
banks without having to go through the U.S. Congress. In a previous article, I described how this
works....
1) The
big U.S. banks have massive quantities of junk mortgage-backed securities that
are worth little to nothing that they desperately want to get rid of.
2) They
convince the Federal Reserve (which the big banks are part-owners of) to buy up
these "toxic assets" at significantly above market price.
3) The
Federal Reserve creates massive amounts of money out of thin air to buy up all
of these troubled assets. The public is told that all of this
"quantitative easing" is necessary to stimulate the U.S. economy.
4) The
big banks are re-capitalized and have gotten massive amounts of bad mortgage
securities off their hands, the Federal Reserve has found a way to pump
hundreds of billions (if not trillions) of dollars into the economy, and most
of the American people are none the wiser…’ ]
Snyder ‘An eerie calm has descended upon world financial markets as they
await perhaps the two most important financial events of the year this week. On
Tuesday, investors will be eagerly awaiting the results of one of the most
anticipated midterm elections in U.S. history. On Wednesday, the Federal
Reserve is expected to end months of speculation by formally announcing the
details of a new round of quantitative easing. If either the election or the
meeting of the Federal Reserve open market committee delivers a highly
unexpected result, it could have a dramatic impact on world financial markets.
In fact, many are looking at this week as a potential turning point for the
U.S. economy. The decisions that are made or not made this week could set us
down a road from which the U.S. economy may never recover.At this point, it looks like
the Republicans will take control of the U.S. House of Representatives and will
pick up a number of U.S. Senate seats as well.There are many in the financial
world who already consider Barack Obama to be the most
"anti-business" president in U.S. history, so a defeat for the Democrats
on Tuesday would be greatly welcomed by many on Wall Street. Barack Obama's
decline in popularity since he was elected has been absolutely stunning.
According to Gallup, Barack Obama had an average approval rating of just 44.7% during the seventh quarter of
his presidency, which was a brand new low. In fact, Obama's average approval
rating has fallen during every single quarter since he took office. Things have
gotten so bad for Obama that one new poll has found that 47% of Democrats now think that Barack
Obama should be challenged for the 2012 Democratic presidential nomination.
However, if the Democrats were able to do surprisingly well on Tuesday, it
would not only shock the political pundits, but it would also likely put world
financial markets in a very bad mood. If the Republicans do very well on
Tuesday, it will likely mean that there will be no more extensions for those
receiving long-term unemployment benefits. Some state governments are already
anticipating this and are making preparations. For example, armed security
guards are now being posted at all 36 full-service
unemployment offices in the state of Indiana. It is estimated that approximately 2 million Americans will lose
their unemployment insurance benefits during this upcoming holiday season if
Congress does not authorize another emergency extension of benefits by the end
of November. If the Republicans do very well on Tuesday, it would make it much
more likely that the extension will not happen.But if millions of unemployed
Americans suddenly find themselves without any unemployment checks, that is
only going to cause anger and frustration to grow.Either way, the unfortunate
truth is that this election is not going to change much.Over the past five
elections, incumbents have been re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives
at an average rate of 96 percent. This time will be a little
different of course, but not that much different. The sad truth is that we are
still likely to see about 80 percent of the exact same faces going back to the
U.S. Congress for the next session.However, even if the American people could
somehow vote out every single member of Congress, it would still not do much to
fundamentally change our economic situation because the U.S. Congress does not
run the economy ,and neither does the President.Of course both of those institutions
can influence the U.S. economy, but it is actually the Federal Reserve that
runs the economy.The Federal Reserve controls the money supply. The Federal
Reserve controls our interest rates. If the U.S. government wants more money it
has to go get it from the Federal Reserve. It is the Federal Reserve that is
tasked with the mandate of keeping unemployment low while also keeping
inflation at a "reasonable" level.But these days, Federal Reserve
officials don't really seem to be that concerned about the dangers of
inflation. In fact, several top Federal Reserve officials have come out in
recent weeks and have made public statements not only advocating more
quantitative easing, but also suggesting that inflation is not a danger because
it is actually "too low" right now.In fact, there
have been some rumblings that many officials at the Fed would actually welcome
more inflation because they think that it would somehow stimulate the economy.
In fact, a Federal Reserve paper that was released in September actually
floated the idea that a spike in oil prices would be quite good for the U.S. economy.And
these are the people running our economy?Are we all caught in an episode of The
Twilight Zone?Well, as far as rising oil prices are concerned, the Fed will
almost surely get its wish. As I have written about previously, the price
of oil is almost certainly heading to 100 dollars a barrel. But if the price of
oil shoots up, isn't that going to cause significant inflationary pressure on
the prices of thousands of other goods and services? Of course. Unfortunately,
very few of our leaders seem too concerned about inflation or about protecting
the value of the U.S. dollar these days. In fact, now even the IMF is publicly
proclaiming that the U.S. dollar is "overvalued". What a mess. But there
is another aspect of a new round of "quantitative easing" that the American
people really wouldn't like if they could actually figure out what is going on.
You see, the truth is that "quantitative easing" is not only just a
way to stimulate the economy, it is also a way to give backdoor bailouts to the
big banks without having to go through the U.S. Congress. In a previous article, I described how this
works....
1)
The big U.S. banks have massive quantities of junk mortgage-backed securities
that are worth little to nothing that they desperately want to get rid of.
2)
They convince the Federal Reserve (which the big banks are part-owners of) to
buy up these "toxic assets" at significantly above market price.
3)
The Federal Reserve creates massive amounts of money out of thin air to buy up
all of these troubled assets. The public is told that all of this
"quantitative easing" is necessary to stimulate the U.S. economy.
4)
The big banks are re-capitalized and have gotten massive amounts of bad
mortgage securities off their hands, the Federal Reserve has found a way to
pump hundreds of billions (if not trillions) of dollars into the economy, and
most of the American people are none the wiser.
Now how do you think the American people would feel about
"quantitative easing" if they really understood all this?But
unfortunately, most Americans will be watching the election results on Tuesday
night without having even a basic understanding of how our economy is really
run.Already, there are a ton of signs that the U.S. economy
is heading in a very bad direction, and dumping a handful of Congress critters
out of office might feel good, but it isn't going to do much to really change
our economic problems.The American people desperately need to be educated about
how our financial system really works. But unfortunately, most Americans will
likely not wake up until the whole house of cards comes crashing down.’
Is
The Fed TRYING To Force A Surge In Commodity Prices And Input Costs? Diapason
Explains Why Hyperinflation Is Blackhawk Ben’s End Goal The Fed is hoping
for not only mild inflation, but an outright surge in prices.
Why
Is Indiana Putting Armed Security Guards Into 36 Unemployment Offices Across
The State? Economic Collapse | Did you ever think that
things in America would get so bad that we would need to put armed guards into
our unemployment offices?
QE2
Is Not A Recovery Plan, It’s A Stealthy Scheme To Prepare For The Next Bank
Bailout [ Next bailout? How ‘bout
they’re still working on the last one … you know, that now ‘marked to anything’
multi-trillion dollar thing … I think people fail to recognize / realize /
appreciate the magnitude of the last / continuing fraud by the criminally
insane lunatics on wall street and accomplices. ] Pragmatic Capitalist
| I’ve shown in rather elaborate detail in recent weeks that quantitative
easing does not help the real economy generate a sustained recovery.
Obama:
Suspicious packages are a 'credible terrorist threat' (Washington
Post) [October suprprise anyone …
still October … trick or treat … there are skeptics … then there are some
who’ll say … just jewish synagogues, no big deal … nothing of strategic value …
healthy dose of skepticism … Obama
‘Fake Terror’ Alert Story Hits #1 on Google Aaron Dykes
Infowars.com October 29, 2010 Efforts to warn the population that the Obama
Administration, like the Bush Administration
before it, has engaged in issuing fake terror alerts has gone viral,
with the search term “fake terror” reaching #1 on
Google Trends. It is yet another success in the Infowar, initiated
on the Alex Jones Show. As we are just days out from the 2010 midterm
elections, voters must realize that the establishment has willfully engaged in
hyping up false alerts to scare the public into believing that we are under
siege by potential terrorist acts at all moments. Various “officials” have been
warning that an attack is likely to occur for weeks now, and it is no surprise
to see the Obama Administration trying to use the fear to its advantage. Recall
that Obama advisor and former top Clinton official, Robert Shapiro, alluded to the
idea that only a terror attack could save Obama’s presidency earlier
in the year.
“The bottom line here is that Americans don’t believe in President
Obama’s leadership,” said Shapiro, adding, “He has to find some way between now
and November of demonstrating that he is a leader who can command confidence
and, short of a 9/11 event or an Oklahoma City bombing, I can’t think of how he
could do that.”
Read the original story by Paul Joseph Watson here, as it has been updated.
U.S.A. -
Home of Financial Absurdities , On Friday
October 29, 2010, 6:41 pm EDT
Throughout mankind's history, scales have been a symbol of equality. As
much as commoners rely on scales to be treated fairly, 'ueber commoners' try to
escape the scales of justice and equality and want to be measured by different
and better standards.In his Gettysburg Address, Abraham Lincoln exhorted his
listeners to ensure the survival of a government of the people, by the people,
for the people. It seems like survival of the fittest like forces have turned a
government of, by and for the people into a government of, for and by special
interest groups.
No More Robin Hood
This week we read that even the Robin Hood of investors, creates his own rules.
Warren Buffett - the only candidate to even remotely resemble a Robin Hood of
Wall Street - had a friendly exchange with the SEC about the treatment of
actual losses.Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway was sitting on $1.86 billion
in losses caused by declining Kraft and US Bancorp stock. The losses were more
than 12 months old and according to current accounting rules had to be written
down. Perhaps Warren had seen how Wall Street is allowed to bend accounting
rules to its favor (more about that in a moment) and thought: 'what they can do
I can do better.' In short, Berkshire didn't write down the $1.86 billion in
losses because ... drum roll ... as Berkshire's Chief Financial Officer Marc
Hamburg's reasoned: ‘We believe it is reasonably possible that the market
prices of Kraft Foods and U.S. Bancorp will recover to our cast within the next
one to two years assuming that there are no material adverse events affecting
these companies or the industries in which they operate.' In other words,
Berkshire didn't want to write down losses, because under the right
circumstances there's a fair chance that stock prices will recover.
Perfect Conditions - 100% Profitability
Of course, under the right conditions any loss could reverse itself.
But, because we don't live in a perfect world, we have accounting rules. The
final numbers are designed to help investors evaluate a company's current
financial health. If the Doctor tells you that you have high cholesterol, do
you tell him: 'Don't worry, under the perfect conditions I'll eat only raw
vegetables,' when in reality you live on burgers and fries and should be on a
double dose of cholesterol meds? Interestingly - and very smartly - Warren
Buffett's new knight - Todd Combs - has stolen the headlight and absorbed the
attention of what otherwise could turn into a full-fledged accounting scandal.
Further Implications
Courtesy of the post-2007 credit contraction, Wall Street Banksters, the
administration, and reputable companies have become quite adept at the denial
and cover up approach. Case in point, Fannie and Freddie. In 2008, management
for the ailing housing giant denied financial trouble. On Sunday,
September 7, 2008, the government seized control of Fannie and Freddie.
Nevertheless, stocks rallied on Monday the morning after. Despite stock's
(NYSEArca: VTI - News) party mood, the ETF Profit
Strategy Newsletter considered banks (NYSEArca: KBE - News) and financial institutions
(NYSEArca: XLF - News) a 'downward spiral with no stop-loss
provision' and predicted Dow (DJI: ^DJI) 7,500 previously in September 2008. As
stocks quickly tumbled to Dow 7,500, the government became desperate. Real
estate related losses were piling up; investors lost confidence in the
financial system and drove Washington Mutual out of business. The problem was
too big to fix, so the administration forced the Financial Accounting Standards
Board to change rule 157. Obviously, the fix is only topical. If it wasn't, why
would Fannie and Freddie need an additional $215 billion in aid? The 'new and
improved' rule 157 allowed Banksters to value assets at what they might be
worth in the future. If bank A purchased a portfolio of real estate (NYSEArca: IYR - News) for $10 million in 2006 and lost
$6 million because the assets turned toxic, bank A is allowed to value the
portfolio just below $10 million. The very real loss is not included in the
current earnings numbers.
Can You Trust Earnings
The real question is whether you can trust reported earnings? If Berkshire,
along with most banks and financial conglomerates, has the legal right to fudge
their earnings we may rightly wonder who else is employing this convenient
accounting trick? Some would call them stupid if they didn't. Ironically,
Citigroup's profits exceeded estimates because they reduced bad loan
provisions. JPMorgan on the other hand expects mortgage buybacks (related to
the foreclosure disaster) to cost lenders $120 billion. To emphasize, Citigroup
reducing its bad loan reserves would be like an insurance company reducing its
natural disaster fund right before hurricane season. Be that as it may, the
S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), Dow Jones (NYSEArca: DIA - News), and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC)
continue to rally. The Nasdaq 100 (Nasdaq: QQQQ - News) has already shot past its April
2010 recovery high, while the Dow and S&P (NYSEArca: IVV - News) are within striking distance.
Expect the Unexpected Following a horrendous August, investors
were expecting a terrible September and/or October. The opposite happened. As
we approach November, we hear that this month usually kicks off the most
profitable time of the year. Fourth quarter institutional cash inflows tend to
result in the best consecutive three-month period. As we've discussed here in
the past, institutions are not the only ones that provide liquidity right now.
The Federal Reserve via its POMO purchases is another one (detailed analysis
available in the November issue of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter). This
extra liquidity is not to be underestimated.
An Extra Black Swan
As we've experienced many times, the market tends to surprise the investing
masses - most of which are bullish right now. A decline from current prices
would certainly be a surprise. To the average investor, who's betting on QE2 to
lift the economy and personal investments, a decline would indeed represent a
'Black Swan.' As noted in any chart, this season of the year, sentiment, and
the market's behavior indicates that the next couple of weeks are likely to be
pivotal for the upcoming months. As of yet, the market has not given away its
true intentions, but it's sending subtle clues. Some recent support/resistance
points are likely to turn into trigger levels, which once activated should fuel
a move into that direction. The semi-weekly Technical Forecast (part of the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter) includes the latest technical analysis
along with trigger, target, safety and stop-loss levels designed to navigate
the current environment profitably.
Gold Soars as the Fed
Contemplates More QE
National / World
Drudgereport:
BUCHANAN: The country is up for grabs... ‘…Consider the critical issue facing America today –
the budget and trade deficits, the soaring national debt, an unemployment near 10 percent for 14 straight months
– and how neither party seems to have the cure. While George Bush's tax cuts
did not cause this, they did not prevent it. And if Republicans believe that
his deficits did cause it, why have those Republicans not addressed the causes
of those deficits – Bush's (and wobama’s) wars, Bush's tax cuts and Bush's
social spending on No Child Left Behind and Medicare
drug benefits? Yet, if liberal Democrats are right and deficits are the correct
Keynesian cure for recession, why have Obama deficits of $1.4 and $1.3 trillion
failed so dismally? … The Federal Reserve, having used and broken every tool in
its toolbox, including doubling the money supply and setting interest rates at
near zero, will now bet the farm on inflation, starting Nov. 3. Both parties
have lost the mandate of heaven, and neither knows if its economic philosophy
even works anymore. We are in uncharted waters. The country is up for grabs.’
ROUBINI: A PRESIDENCY HEADED FOR A FISCAL
TRAINWRECK...
Europe 'dismayed' as midterms highlight Obama's
struggles...
POLL: 65% Would Vote to Replace Entire Congress...
POLL: Majority Wants Obama Fired In 2012...
Democrat predicts GOP takeover in the House...
Candidates use children to make final pitch...
Politicians use PIs to unearth their own skeletons...
JET INK BOMB ALERT...
SINISTER PACKAGES ON CARGO PLANES...
Al Qaeda suspected...
'Syringe, powder and cell phone components'...
BIG SIS: Expect Extensive Pat-Downs To Become The
Norm...
MILBANK: Obama is the last laugh... (Washington Post) [ Quite right! Wobama’s so
pathetic … I believe most would find even wobama’s post-office perks
objectionable … he was given the benefit of every doubt and support following
what has to be considered the easiest act in the world to follow (dumbya bush)
and has failed miserably, marking the beginning of a long overdue reality check
and national blackout in america. ]
Milbank ’On Comedy Central,
the joke was on President Obama Wednesday night. The president had come, on the
eve of what will almost certainly be the loss of his governing majority, to plead his case before Jon Stewart,
gatekeeper of the disillusioned left. But instead of displaying the sizzle that
won him an army of youthful supporters two years ago, Obama had a Brownie
moment. The Daily Show host was giving Obama a tough time about hiring the
conventional and Clintonian Larry Summers as his top economic advisor. "In
fairness," the president replied defensively, "Larry Summers did a
heckuva job." "You don't want to use that phrase, dude," Stewart
recommended with a laugh. Dude. The indignity of a comedy show host calling the
commander in chief "dude" pretty well captured the moment for Obama.
He was making this first-ever appearance by a president on the Daily Show as
part of a long-shot effort to rekindle the spirit of '08. In the Daily Show,
Obama had a friendly host and an even friendlier crowd…’
Vietnam
jails bloggers, sentences activists (Washington Post) [ What is
it about the allure of ‘everyone’s equal b*** s***’ inherent to pure,
unadulterated totalitarian communism. Always the same story and quite a
pathetic one at that. (Previous,
infra.) As for cuban rhetoric, I don’t take anything they say seriously (I
remind people that if you said something anti-government in cuba, you’d be dead
or in jail), although I’m not hesitant to include a good point if made (ie.,
castro recently talking about nuclear holocaust risk, etc.). Disclaimer: I have been and continue to be
opposed to an end to a trade embargo on cuba; not because of their communist
system (I’m staunchly opposed to communism – ‘everybody’s equal except some bureaucrats
are more equal than others’, etc.), but solely because of their grant of asylum
to a black panther member who murdered a state trooper. ] In the run-up to a
visit by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, the actions have threatened
the significant progress between the U.S. and Vietnam in recent months. Black
Panther case reveals schism (Washington Post) [ I mean, really
… You’d think a black president and black ag would have more sense … Drudgereport: WASHPOST: Black
Panthers case taps deep racial divisions at Justice... Previous: UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE
BIAS AT JUSTICE... CIVIL RIGHTS PANEL TO PURSUE
FED PROBE IN BLACK PANTHER CASE... ex-Justice official quit over the handling of a voter
intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party accused his former
employer of instructing attorneys in the civil rights division to ignore cases
that involve black defendants and white victims US v. AZ... Cases
against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud Obama broke promises ) Disclaimer: I have been and continue to be opposed to
an end to a trade embargo on cuba; not because of their communist system (I’m
staunchly opposed to communism – ‘everybody’s equal except some bureaucrats are
more equal than others’, etc.), but solely because of their grant of asylum to
a black panther member who murdered a state trooper: ‘Assata
Shakur - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Assata Olugbala Shakur (born July
16, 1947[1]
as JoAnne Deborah Byron, married name Chesimard[2]) is
an African-American activist and escaped convict who
was a member of the Black Panther Party (BPP) and Black Liberation Army (BLA). Between 1971 and
1973, Shakur was accused of several crimes, of which she would never be
charged, and made the subject of a multi-state manhunt.[3][4] In May 1973, Shakur was involved in a shootout on the
New Jersey Turnpike, during which New Jersey State Trooper Werner Foerster
and BLA member Zayd Malik Shakur were killed and Shakur and Trooper James
Harper were wounded.[5]
Between 1973 and 1977, Shakur was indicted in
relation to six other alleged criminal incidents—charged with murder, attempted
murder, armed
robbery, bank robbery, and kidnapping—resulting
in three acquittals
and three dismissals. In 1977, she was convicted of the first-degree murder of Foerster and of seven other felonies
related to the shootout.[6]
Shakur was then incarcerated in several prisons, where her treatment drew
criticism from some human rights groups. She escaped from prison in 1979
and has been living in Cuba
in political asylum since 1984.’ - The black panthers are not a bunch of
‘warm and fuzzy’ people. As for cuban rhetoric, I don’t take anything they say
seriously (I remind people that if you said something anti-government in cuba,
you’d be dead or in jail), although I’m not hesitant to include a good point if
made (ie., castro recently talking about nuclear holocaust risk, etc.). Suit over voter intimidation -- reported
by poll-watcher Chris Hill, above -- roils Justice Dept.
Govt. "Diverging from Reality", U.S. "At Risk
of Downward Spiral," Sachs Warns Sachs ‘Life, liberty and the
pursuit of happiness are under assault in this country as our political system
has basically taken the American people hostage. That was a key tenet of an
impassioned speech by Professor Jeffrey Sachs’s at The Economist’s
Buttonwood Gathering earlier this week.“The U.S. is at risk of a downward
spiral because we are diverging from reality," Sachs says, citing a
"profound failure on many fronts." Sachs, who is director of The
Earth Institute and author of several books, gave a laundry list of
problems plaguing America that are being ignored: a crumbling infrastructure,
severe poverty, debilitating budget deficits, failing education, climate
change, energy policy…the list goes on. Despite these huge, structural
challenges, America is obsessed with the short-term...and the next election,
Sachs laments. “We are not looking at anything aside from who’s up, who’s down
for November and we are only looking from that moment on [to] who is going to
be up for 2012.”As a result of the two-year political cycle, Sachs argues that
we’ve become way too shortsighted in our policymaking, or lack
thereof. “Strangely missing,” he says, are "government program
and plans set before the American people. What we have is relentless backroom
negotiations with interest groups.”The American people have essentially been forgotten
as politicians continuously vie for the support of special interest groups. “It
is staggering the vested interested and the large money pouring into the
campaign,” he says.Recalling Rahm Emanuel's famous quip that a “crisis is a
terrible thing to waste,” Sachs says leadership in Washington is key to getting
us back on track. He feels the financial crisis could have been used to fix
many of our long-term problems (see list above) but President Obama and his
party fumbled the opportunity. Still, Sachs has no great faith in the GOP
either…’
Street
Sags As Earnings Outweigh Drop In Jobless Claims [ Come on! Days before the
elections … do you really think those much better than expected unemployment
claims numbers were real? ]
Bullish
Sentiment Near 2-1/2 Year High [ As
it was just before the last crash! ]
JPMorgan,
HSBC Accused of Manipulating Silver Futures HSBC Holdings Plc and JPMorgan
Chase & Co. were accused in an investor’s lawsuit of placing “spoof”
trading orders to manipulate silver futures and options prices in violation of
U.S. antitrust law.
National
/ World
Drudgereport: BUCHANAN:
The country is up for grabs... ‘…Consider the critical issue facing America today –
the budget and trade deficits, the soaring national debt, an unemployment near 10 percent for 14 straight months
– and how neither party seems to have the cure. While George Bush's tax cuts did
not cause this, they did not prevent it. And if Republicans believe that his
deficits did cause it, why have those Republicans not addressed the causes of
those deficits – Bush's (and wobama’s) wars, Bush's tax cuts and Bush's social
spending on No Child Left Behind and Medicare drug
benefits? Yet, if liberal Democrats are right and deficits are the correct
Keynesian cure for recession, why have Obama deficits of $1.4 and $1.3 trillion
failed so dismally? … The Federal Reserve, having used and broken every tool in
its toolbox, including doubling the money supply and setting interest rates at
near zero, will now bet the farm on inflation, starting Nov. 3. Both parties
have lost the mandate of heaven, and neither knows if its economic philosophy
even works anymore. We are in uncharted waters. The country is up for grabs.’
ROUBINI:
A PRESIDENCY HEADED FOR A FISCAL TRAINWRECK...
Europe
'dismayed' as midterms highlight Obama's struggles...
POLL:
65% Would Vote to Replace Entire Congress...
POLL:
Majority Wants Obama Fired In 2012...
Democrat
predicts GOP takeover in the House...
Candidates
use children to make final pitch...
Politicians
use PIs to unearth their own skeletons...
MILBANK: Obama is the last
laugh... (Washington
Post) [ Quite right! Wobama’s so pathetic and a total joke … I believe most
would find even wobama’s post-office perks objectionable … he was given the
benefit of every doubt and support following what has to be considered the
easiest act in the world to follow (dumbya bush) and has failed miserably,
marking the beginning of a long overdue reality check and national blackout
(‘you know, the energy thing’) in america.
]
Milbank ’On Comedy Central,
the joke was on President Obama Wednesday night. The president had come, on the
eve of what will almost certainly be the loss of his governing majority, to plead
his case before Jon Stewart, gatekeeper of the disillusioned left. But
instead of displaying the sizzle that won him an army of youthful supporters
two years ago, Obama had a Brownie moment. The Daily Show host was giving Obama
a tough time about hiring the conventional and Clintonian Larry Summers as his
top economic advisor. "In fairness," the president replied
defensively, "Larry Summers did a heckuva job." "You don't want
to use that phrase, dude," Stewart recommended with a laugh. Dude. The
indignity of a comedy show host calling the commander in chief "dude"
pretty well captured the moment for Obama. He was making this first-ever
appearance by a president on the Daily Show as part of a long-shot effort to
rekindle the spirit of '08. In the Daily Show, Obama had a friendly host and an
even friendlier crowd…’
Comment
on: U.S.
military campaign to topple resilient Taliban hasn't succeeded at 10/28/2010 5:35 AM EDT
Afghanistan:
U.S. military campaign to topple Taliban hasn't succeeded (Washington Post) [
The really tragic thing about all the death and destruction inflicted by
america for no good reason is that one with even a modicum of sense of military
strategy / history could have easily (as here warned on this site) predicted
this failed outcome; and then, there’s america’s defacto bankruptcy, their
greed for their resurgent heroin trade dollars which the Taliban had all but
eradicated, and that in this as in most instances, america’s clearly the bad
guy. ]
Comment
on: E.U.
rules let Iran import, export oil, creating possible split from U.S. policy
at 10/28/2010 5:23 AM EDT
New E.U. rules let Iran import, export oil, gas (Washington Post) [
Probably too little, too late to save the eu from pervasively corrupt, defacto
bankrupt american insanity, from mark to anything valuations, Weimar dollar
type currencies, perpetual wars, etc., yet this is at least a step in the right
direction for the eu.] The United States and Europe have worked cooperatively
on Iran policy since President Obama took office, but a small crack might have
begun to open over sanctions that are beginning to pinch ordinary Iranians.
Iran connects U.S./israel to deadly blasts I believe Iran! ‘West, israel linked to SE Iran blasts’ A
ranking official with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has implicated
“the us, israel and some european countries” in the deadly blasts in the
southeastern Iranian city of Zahedan.
Comment
on: Federal
bailout oversight panel raises alarms over foreclosure crisis at 10/28/2010 5:15 AM EDT
Bailout
panel raises alarms (Washington Post) [ Whew! Just in the nick of time … really
dodged a bullet … NOT! …They’re as late as they’ve been complicit in every
problem this nation has, particularly with their cozy relationship with the
frauds on wall street (still unprosecuted) who’ve benefited mightily from these
continuing scams / frauds at everyone’s expense. ] Repercussions of the
foreclosure crisis worry lawmakers.
Comment
on: Wells
Fargo acknowledges problems in foreclosure paperwork at 10/28/2010 5:11 AM EDT
Bank
finds paperwork flaws (Washington Post) [The obviousness of this headline
brings to mind such rhetorical queries as ‘do bears s*** in the woods’ and ‘is
the Pope Catholic’, etc.. This is pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt
america; home of the frauds, fleeced, and f*** ups! ] Lender has stood by its
foreclosure paperwork for weeks as other banks discovered errors and halted
sales.
Comment on: Most
Americans worry about ability to pay mortgage or rent, poll finds at 10/28/2010 5:06 AM EDT
Are
you like most Americans? (Washington Post) [ Oh come on! If mortgage payments
were all americans had to worry about in this fraud-rampant, pervasively
corrupt (all 3 branches of u.s. government), defacto bankrupt nation they’d
have reason to jump for joy. ] A new Washington Post poll reveals that most
Americans worry about making mortgage payments.
Bulls Get Edgy: Dave's Daily ‘The dollar rallies, gold and
commodities fall, stocks get wobbly, bonds get sold and frankly, investors just
lose their nerve. Despite the obligatory end-of-day "stick save"
today, perhaps investors wish to square-up before the election on Tuesday and
the Fed decision Wednesday. Earnings from companies like DuPont continue to
beat estimates while Durable Goods Orders, ex-airplanes and military, was weak.
This means corporate investment in new stuff remains weak as well. But, hey,
doesn't this more good news for those want a strenuous QE effort? Oh, the
mystery of it all! PIMCO's Bill Gross stated to clients that the Fed was
running a Ponzi Scheme which he dubs a "Sammy
Scheme". Also highly regarded market veteran Jeremy Grantham lambasted
what the Fed was doing as "The
Night of the Living Dead". Then we have the 25th straight
week of equity mutual fund outflows combined with another round of POMO
tomorrow which might take up the slack. In the meantime, you may tune in to our
video
podcast with Dan Dolan, Director of Wealth Management Strategies for the
Select Sector SPDR Trust. We discuss the many sector ETFs, the indexes they're
linked to, and most importantly, where the positive or negative money-flow is
whether from technology to financials. Volume increased in good two-way action
today but breadth wound up the day negative…’
Hoping
the Fed Will 'Disappoint' the Market and Say No to QE2 Goodman ‘Many people
now believe that the Federal Reserve is composed of a group of persons who do
the bidding of companies like Goldman Sachs (GS).
Jan Hatzius, chief economist of Goldman Sachs, is spearheading the effort to
insure heavy dollar debasement, claiming that the issuance of $4 trillion new
counterfeit dollars will help the real economy. Reading Hatzius' justifications
is like reading the ravings of a lunatic. If Hatzius were an imbecile, I would
accept that. But, he is surely not. He is, instead, the living mouthpiece for a
group of executives at Goldman Sachs, who are not satisfied with the amount of
cash they have already managed to extract from the American public. They want
yet more free counterfeit cash from the Fed to play with. It is not the first
time this has happened. Firms similar to Goldman Sachs were also pressuring the
Reichsbank of Weimar Germany from 1919-23 to engage in more and more
quantitative easing. At that time, the German central bank obliged and the
famous Weimar hyperinflation episode that scarred Germany for generations was
the result.It is said that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which sets
interest rates and orders official counterfeiting from time to time, will never
disappoint the “market”. The term “market” seems to be defined as the big
investment banks on Wall Street. Jan Hatzius has a lot of wants and desires
that mirror the goal of his firm to make as much profit as possible in their
role as speculators and brokers who service speculators. He and fellow Goldman
Sachs’ alumnus, William Dudley, President of the New York Fed, claim that
counterfeit dollars (QE-2) will help lower the unemployment rate. Yet, the
first round of quantitative easing did absolutely nothing to lower the
unemployment rate. QE-1 mostly juiced the stock and commodity markets with an
unhealthy dose of speculative feel-good fever. It caused the price of many
commodities to skyrocket. Higher commodity prices, fed by
"counterfeit" QE cash, has put a great strain on the real economy.
They have enriched many of our nation’s enemies in the Middle East, Venezuela
and elsewhere. The reflation of commodity prices, especially at the supermarket
and at the gas pump, is very unhealthy for American consumers who are strapped
to begin with. Yet, in spite of this, the primary dealers tell us that the Fed
must do more. QE-1 was essentially a huge stealth tax imposed by the Fed to
save the big banks. Now, QE-2 will essentially be another huge stealth tax
designed to make big banks richer, at the expense of the rest of society. Of
course, the Fed is not supposed to have taxation power. Our Constitution
reserved this for Congress. Indeed, taxation without representation was the
rallying cry of the American Revolution. With the Fed and quantitative easing,
however, we have reached the ultimate in taxation without representation.
Americans must pay the tax, on food, fuel and other things, and no one in
Congress can do anything about it. The tax has been imposed by the Fed, an
organization controlled by the same banks that will benefit from taking this
money from the American people.QE-1 was most effective in saving big banks from
what appeared to be their inevitable demise in March 2007. The weak foundations
of their income and assets caused many banks to be unwilling to lend money to
other banks. Some of the biggest financial institutions in the world were
unable to convert many of their assets, then thought to be worthless, into
cash. Quantitative easing created a market for agency and mortgage backed
bonds, for example, at a time that the private market wanted no part of them.
It put cash in the pockets of the banks and bonuses in the hands of their bank
executives. QE-1 was announced and carried out starting in March, 2009, a time
of unusual dollar demand from foreign banks faced with billions in defaulting
dollar denominated assets. The dollar had reached its highest level in years,
and that fact helped the Fed get away with it. Dollar demand has drastically
dropped since then, and the currency is floundering near its historic lows
right now. The Fed won't get away with QE-2 without America paying heavy
consequences.Some countries, like Brazil, are already erecting protective
tariff barriers in order to exclude unwanted dollar denominated investment.
Given this backdrop, during a time of unprecedented dollar weakness, we believe
that QE-2 will eventually lead to a runaway selloff of the U.S. dollar in the
real market, as opposed to merely in the leveraged currency markets. That would
be devastating both to the American economy and that of the world.The world
would have been better without QE-1. Insolvent banks should have been allowed
to fail. That would have allowed us to nationalize them, fire all the
incompetent executives, and sell off the pieces to more prudent management,
leaving no golden parachutes and no rewards for failure. However, there was an
argument, at that time, that doing this would send the world into a deep
depression. It was a weak argument and I vehemently disagreed at the time.
However, a lot of people believed it and it was used to justify the biggest
counterfeiting and money debasement episode in history.No such financial crisis
exists today, and no such justifications can be relied on. Bank profits are now
quite high. Profits in the rest of corporate America are also high. Corporate
cash hoards are also high. Corporations will only be inclined to spend that
cash in America (as opposed to converting it into foreign currencies and/or
gold), or engage in speculation like the banks, if they have confidence in the
U.S. economy. Engaging in another round of quantitative easing decreases
confidence.Some diseases weaken the host, but they allow the host to live.
Others weaken and then kill the host. Guys like Jan Hatzius and William Dudley,
as well as all the others who are pushing QE-2, are suffering from the second
type of disease. They will not be satisfied with anything less than sucking all
the life's blood from the nation’s economy, even if it means that the entire
economy dies. They are willing and ready to destroy confidence in the U.S.
dollar and the U.S. economy through more quantitative easing, at a time when no
arguable justification for it exists. Once confidence is destroyed, it will be
difficult or impossible to regain. Meanwhile, virtually all the primary dealers
of the Federal Reserve are expressing certainty that the Fed will begin another
round of official counterfeiting on November 3, 2010. Bank of America/Merrill
Lynch (BAC) says $500 billion at the next meeting
with a total of $1 trillion. Deutsche Bank (DB) says
$125 billion and then $50-100 billion for 6 months for a total of $500 billion.
The Wall Street Journal has announced that the FOMC is poised to announce the
printing of several hundred billion at its next meeting, without saying where
it got that information. (See here.)It
is troubling, to say the least, that private companies like Goldman Sachs,
Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank and media outlets, like the Wall Street Journal,
often seem to know what the Fed will do, before it does it. Where are they
getting this information? Reuters recently exposed corruption at the Federal
Reserve in the form of selective leaks of inside information to favored persons
in private industry. (See here.) A
special prosecutor's office should be established to investigate and determine
the source of the inside information. The S&P office should aggressively
prosecute all persons at the Fed who are identified as sources, no
matter how high they may rank in the hierarchy, as well as those who received
the information. In any case, this type of foreknowledge activity illustrates a
high level of corruption at the Federal Reserve and why the organization has
lost most of its credibility.For once in its lengthy existence, the FOMC should
say “no” to the primary dealers. But, perhaps, that is impossible. Those who
say that the FOMC, with one or two exceptions, is composed of financial whores
and owned by various executives at the primary dealers, might be right.
However, if they are wrong, given the circumstances, the FOMC will disappoint
the "market" by announcing no further quantitative easing at this
time. Disclosure: No positions in any company mentioned’
Mike Shedlock on the Economy, Deflation and Where to
Invest This Year [ I personally believe mish to be a lightweight, but correct in
some respects albeit after the fact while providing a lot of historical data
(which is interesting) … ie., he totally misses the computerized high-frequency
programmed fraud (and consequent effects), the basic economic equation, the
debasement of dollar / lower price earnings multiple dynamic / fraud, etc., and
though bearish, is afraid to say it; ie., ‘It is far easier to make up for lost opportunities than lost cash’. Tell
us something we don’t know mish.’ ] Martenson ‘… The Case Against
the Fed What Has Government Done to Our Money?… Mish: I am a firm believer in peak oil.
I don't know how anyone can deny it.
Given peak oil, and given the demand from China for oil and other
commodities, the world is on a crash
course of demand that cannot be filled. China is growing at 8-10% a
year (assuming you believe the stats). Can China keep growing at that rate
forever? For even 10 more years? What about India? Brazil? …Fed will print and
print and print. Let's look at a few examples. Zimbabwe Hyperinflation
In the case of Zimbabwe, a loss of faith in currency occurred before the
printing occurred. The Weimar Republic is a different story. In Zimbabwe, the
Mugabe government initiated a "land reform" program intended to
correct the inequitable land distribution created by colonial rule. Ultimately,
Mugabe's attempt to bail out the poor at the expense of the wealthy is what
triggered capital flight and loss of faith of the currency. His reforms not
only caused a flight of capital and human capital (the wealthy), they also led
to sanctions by the US and Europe. In response, Mugabe turned on the printing
presses but the loss of faith in the currency had already occurred. Weimar
Hyperinflation In Weimar Germany, printing for war reparations kicked
off hyperinflation. War reparations were a political event. So was the invasion
of Germany to enforce payment of those reparations. Argentina
Hyperinflation Argentina based its currency on the US dollar, a
political mistake. When Argentina could no longer hold the peg, its currency
collapsed. Hyperinflation is a Political Event The commonality
between Zimbabwe, Weimar, and Argentina is they are both political events. In
Zimbabwe a political event triggered capital flight, in Weimar a political event
started massive printing, and in Argentina everything collapsed when a foolish
peg could not be sustained. In each case, a collapse of faith in currency
(hyperinflation) led governments to massive printing campaigns, not the other
way around. …’
National / World
Drudgereport: CBSNEWSNYT:
Parts of Obama Coalition Drift Toward GOP...
GALLUP
SEES TIDAL WAVE
CHICAGOLAND:
Officials scramble to send out vote-by-mail ballots...
Daytona
Beach Commissioner Charged With Absentee Ballot Fraud...
Nevada
Secretary Of State Says 'No Evidence' Of Fraud...
Residents
cry foul over ballots in PA...
Republicans
Plan Budget Cuts Early If They Take Power ...
REALCLEAR
WRAP: SENATE HOUSE...
ABCNEWS
NOTE MIKE
ALLEN PLAYBOOK MSNBC
FIRST READ WASH
POST FIX...
CHICAGO: 'Glitch' with vote-by-mail system; Hundreds of thousands of
voters may be disenfranchised...
UPDATE:
Tensions flare offstage at KY debate; Dem supporter steps on foot of woman
wearing surgical boot...
ANTI-REPUBLICAN
PROTESTER STOMPED...
Bill
Clinton: 'It's What Happened To Me In 94'...
SHOCK
POLL: OBAMA HITS 37 APPROVAL...
Dem
candidates shun president...
Obama:
My name's not on ballot, but my agenda is...
Fiorina
Admitted to Hospital for Infection...
WH
bristles over top Republicans remarks...
REALCLEAR
WRAP: SENATE HOUSE...
ABCNEWS
NOTE MIKE
ALLEN PLAYBOOK MSNBC
FIRST READ WASH
POST RUNDOWN...
REID 'FREE FOOD' AT TURNOUT EVENTS
UNIONS 'GIFT CARDS' FOR VOTES
SOROS:
LEGALIZE THE WEED... [ … In his opinion piece, Soros said that the nation’s marijuana laws
"are clearly doing more harm than good" at a cost of billions of
dollars a year "to enforce this unenforceable prohibition."Soros
wrote that regulating and taxing marijuana would reduce the crime and violence
linked to criminal drug gangs and violations of civil liberties "that
occur when large numbers of otherwise law-abiding citizens are subject to
arrest." He also noted that minorities are arrested at higher rates for
marijuana crimes, creating arrest records that may follow them through
life.Although he endorsed Proposition 19, noting that it would allow
recreational use and small-scale cultivation, Soros also suggested "its
deficiencies can be corrected on the basis of experience." Besides
allowing adults 21 and older to grow and possess marijuana, the initiative
would allow cities and counties to authorize commercial cultivation, sales and
taxation … (
My position is similar but for the reason to take the profit from the gangs,
criminals, and to tax it). ]
VEGAS:
'I WENT TO VOTE AND HARRY REID'S NAME WAS ALREADY CHECKED'...
Voting Machine Techs Are SEIU...
N
CAROLINA: I VOTED REPUBLICAN AND MACHINE CHECKED DEMOCRAT...
[ Let’s get real … declining / fallen america’s a banana republic (pervasively
corrupt, defacto bankrupt, gunboat diplomacy, etc.)]
Global
extinction crisis looms, study says
(Washington
Post ) [ 90% of all species that have ever existed
are now extinct. On this dying planet, extinction is not the exception but the
rule! Approximately 3 extinctions per hour and humans are posited as the
causative irritant (Niles Eldredge) and humans will be no exception (wars,
etc.) ] One-fifth of all vertebrates and as many as a third of all sharks and
rays are now threatened.
Art Hogan of
Jefferies, while being interviewed by Frank Motek indicated that next week will
probably be a ‘sell on the news’ week, the absence of that rumor / b*** s***
story, viz., the election results, being the precipitating factor [Come on ….
Does anybody really believe that election results at this point in declining,
defacto bankrupt america’s history mean anything at all (bi-partisan
corruption, perpetual war policy, incompetence, etc, in all three branches of
government)]. He was promptly cut off [they probably used an att line ( corrupt
jersey based att now owned by war criminal bushie bonkers Texas based sbc does
the government bidding which impacts on service and privacy)]. Slusiewicz, as immediately follows the table sets forth
the same cautionary note, and inter alia, I would add the following for prospective full moon cycles in
addition to the numbers to help explain the fraudulent wall street lunacy (and
yes, they are criminally insane lunatics on wall street):
Year |
New Moon |
First Quarter |
Full Moon |
Last Quarter |
2010 Moon
Phases dates |
||||
2010 |
|
|
|
Jan
7 10:40 |
|
Nov 6
04:52 |
Nov
13 16:39 |
Nov
21 17:27 |
Nov
28 20:36 |
|
Dec
5 17:36 |
Dec
13 13:59 |
Dec
21 08:13 t |
Dec
28 04:18 |
|
|
|
|
|
Year |
New Moon |
First
Quarter |
Full Moon |
Last
Quarter |
2011 Moon
Phases dates |
||||
2011 |
Jan
04 09:03 |
Jan
12 11:31 |
Jan
19 21:21 |
Jan 26
12:57 |
|
Feb
3 02:31 |
Feb
11 07:18 |
Feb
18 08:36 |
Feb
24 23:26 |
|
Mar
4 20:46 |
Mar
12 23:45 |
Mar
19 18:10 |
Mar
26 12:07 |
|
Apr
3 14:32 |
Apr
11 12:05 |
Apr
18 02:44 |
Apr
25 02:47 |
|
May
3 06:51 |
May
10 20:33 |
May
17 11:09 |
May
24 18:52 |
|
Jun
1 21:03 |
Jun
9 02:11 |
Jun
15 20:13 |
Jun
23 11:48 |
Nothing to Cheer About Slusiewicz ‘My daughter is a cheerleader at her school.
As you know, cheerleaders have to cheer for their teams through good and bad
times no matter what. It seems that investors today are acting as cheerleaders
for the Federal Reserve. The current chant goes something like this; “Go Ben –
Print more money – Buy more Bonds! Go Ben Go – Buy more Assets!” It doesn’t
matter that this same Fed that back in the beginning of 2007, when New Century
Financial (the first big time subprime lending company) failed, the Fed
continued to talk about ‘excess liquidity.’ When the problems became worse the
Fed said that the problems would be contained to only subprime loans. When the
problems spread from subprime to prime loans - this same Fed clearly announced
that the problems would be minor and not extend into the rest of the US
economy. When the economy started into a full blown recession in 2008– Fed
officials were saying it would only be a soft patch in a robust economy until
it was too late. They were behind the curve ball all the way down. The first
Quantitative Easing program, which had the Fed buying mortgage securities in an
attempt to keep interest rates low to stimulate the housing market, was only
partially successful. Because, while interest rates for mortgages stayed low,
seniors on fixed incomes suffered and the housing market still remains
vulnerable. So far Fed actions have not been too successful are reviving our
economy on a widespread basis – just look at job growth or the lack thereof.
Some will argue that without the Fed things would have been much worse. That is
debatable. My contention is that we would have dropped farther and faster, but
the recovery would have also been much quicker without the humongous debt
burden we created that will likely last for generations. But that is not the
point of discussion in this prose. The real concern is that if investors feel
that America is on the road to recovery – what do we need to print another
trillion dollars for (QE2)? Could it be that structurally we still have some
issues? One would never know it judging from the complacency of investors. The
VIX fear index is at extreme low levels. The AAII investors’ sentiment gauge
also shows a high level of bullishness and an extreme low level of bears. The
spread from bulls to bears is one that is normally associated with market tops.
This could mean that investors either trust or fear the bearded one who wields
a big printing press. Institutions are also very bullish as mutual funds are
carrying near record low levels of cash today. Also adding to the mutual fund
dilemma has been the record amount of redemptions by individual investors from
stock funds over the preceding several months. From a technical perspective, I
see a very extended rising bearish wedge pattern formed since the August 31st
lows on the major indices. The market run up over that timeframe also has an
eerie similarity to the run up from February to the April highs of this year. I
observe a double top formation with the current and April highs and the markets
are currently intersecting their respective 200 week declining moving averages,
adding resistance to the uptrend. We have more volume on the down days than on
the up days, signaling distribution. The High Frequency Traders that caused the
flash crash in May still constitute the majority of the volume each trading day
– which to me still demonstrates potential instability. The market set up is
very similar to the April highs, but the only thing missing is a catalyst to
get the market moving up or down from here. I am very concerned about the
inverse relationship markets have with the US Dollar. Sentiment on the dollar
is 100% bearish! The old adage is to invest opposite of everyone else –
especially when everyone is all on one side. You cannot get more bearish on the
dollar than what it is today. If the dollar reverses back up and the inverse
relationship holds true to form – then the stock market could be in for a
reversal. Now the dollar bears are going to see the QE2 that’s coming and state
that the dollar is going to continue its slide. It wasn’t too long ago that
many pundits were saying that the Euro would not only drop to par with the US
dollar – but it would cease to exist as a currency. Look what has transpired
since. The only certainty is change. Now is a time for caution! Some major
events are coming soon. The election on November 2nd and the much anticipated
Fed announcement the next day to name a few. Clearly investors are cheering,
hoping, and waiting for the next move by the Fed. November 3rd cannot get here
soon enough. Is this going to be one of those buy on rumor and sell on news
events? Can the Fed live up to the expectations built into current market
prices for another round of quantitative easing? Will the Fed’s action really
spread to the overall economy and create jobs and boost our nation into a self
sustaining recovery? I’ll keep my daughter cheering on Ben Bernanke and his
friends – “Go Bernanke – the economy doesn’t want another spanky” – or
something like that. Disclosure: Author maintains positions in
GLL, ZSL, TBT, PCH, PCL, EUO and cash’
Flat Finish
on Wall Street Midnight
Trader Oct 26, 2010 --
GLOBAL SENTIMENT
UPSIDE MOVERS
(+) NTRS gains as reports says HSBC may make a bid.
(+) JASO projects better-than-expected Q3.
(+) COH beats with Q1 results.
(+) SUPG continues evening gain after earnings top
year-ago levels.
(+) MIPS continues strong evening upside in wake of
earnings beat.
(+) F loses early bid that followed earnings beat.
DOWNSIDE MOVERS
(-) DD gives up early gain to turn just lower; beats
with weaker earnings, raises guidance.
(-) TXN continues evening decline that followed Q3
estimates, Q4 guidance that straddles Street view.
(-) UBS investment side performance clouds earnings
beat.
(-) RF misses loss expectations.
(-) TLAB guides for revenue miss.
(-) ARMH dented by Q3 results.
(-) X earnings disappoint.
(-) ZRAN warns for Q4 after Q3 revenue miss.
(-) VLTR downgraded.
MARKET DIRECTION
Stock averages end barely in positive territory.
Mixed earnings, disappointing home price data and an improving dollar offset a
report showing a rise in consumer confidence.Consolidation kept a lid on stock
markets. The blue-chip DJIA has pushed up to score a fresh 2010 high a couple
of times in recent sessions before edging back to close off that mark.Stocks
turned positive at mid-day as a consumer sentiment report offered some support
for the broader market.U.S. consumer confidence rose in October to 50.2,
according to the Conference Board. Economists had expected a reading of 50,
according to a MarketWatch poll. Confidence for September was revised up to
48.6, from a prior estimate of 48.5. The barometer on consumers' expectations
rose to 67.8 in October from 65.5 in September, while consumers' assessment of
current conditions rose to 23.9 from 23.3.The U.S. August Case-Shiller home
price index, released before the bell, fell 0.2%, but is up 1.7% in the past
year.Ford Motor Co. (F)
and Coach (COH) were gainers
after their respective results, while Texas Instruments (TXN) and US Steel
Corp. (X)
disappointed with their earnings and outlooks.
Wall St advances on dollar weakness,
Fed bets (Reuters)
– [ Look at the aforementioned headline. Isn’t anyone getting the sense of how
totally preposterous this is? Then there’s the ‘market frothing’ used home
foreclosure / distressed home sales number … previous wall street b*** s***
story, the election and consequent gridlock story … as if they’re substantially
different …perpetual war, runaway nation-bankrupting record deficit spending,
incompetence, corruption (still no prosecution of the wall street frauds), etc.
What total b*** s***! ] U.S. stocks rose to a five-and-a-half month high on
Monday as a falling dollar, partly driven by expectations of further stimulus
by the Federal Reserve, prompted investors to buy riskier as... [ Davis: ‘… all profits are inflated by 10% (from falling,
debased dollar) and that 10% is the E that gets divided from the P and gives us
a much better price/multiple to hang our hats on and that gets investors to
BUYBUYBUY …’ Previous pre-crash: The bull market
that never was / were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold
] This is an
especially great opportunity to sell / take profits (these lower dollar,
hyperinflationary currency manipulations / translations to froth paper stocks
will end quite badly as in last crash)! This
is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression.
The past up moves were manipulated bull (s***) cycles (at best) in a secular
bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the
prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders
commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street ‘programmed
computerized high-frequency churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as
in prior crashes ( widely reported,
high-frequency trading routinely accounts for more than 50% of daily U.S.
equity trading volume and regularly approaches 70%. )’. This national
decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the
wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and
disgorgement imposed.The Stock Market's
Long Decline Has Begun Smith ‘The Fed's campaign to boost the
risk-trade in equities by destroying the dollar has reached its limits. Now
gravity will take hold as stocks enter a Long Decline.On Monday, Daily
Finance published my article Is the Market Ready
to Roll Over? These Signs Say Yes.
National / World
Don't Trust the Rally: "Its Just High-Speed Guys Chasing Each Other, Saluzzi Says ‘Major averages are hovering near their highest levels since September 2008, but retail investors continue to flee the market. Domestic equity funds have suffered outflows for 24 consecutive weeks through Friday, and over $81 billion has come out of domestic equity mutual funds year to date, according to Morningstar.At the risk of stating the obvious, several factors explain why investors simply don't trust the rally. Twice bitten, thrice shy: Having been burned by the bursting of the tech stock bubble in 2000, the housing bubble and the financial crisis of 2008, investors are understandably wary of getting sucked in again. A "lost decade" for index investors hasn't helped either. It's the Economy Stupid: With the "real" unemployment rate near 17%, millions of Americans simply have no money to put into the market; many are cashing out their 401(k) plans and otherwise raiding their nest eggs in an effort to stay afloat. Given the economic backdrop, it's no surprise many investors see the rally as being detached from reality and due only to the Fed's easy money policies...and the promise of more! "We're not seeing any sort of growth other than stimulus," says Joseph Saluzzi, co-founder of Themis Trading. "That is a very disturbing thing -- the constant stimulus that keeps on coming that really does nothing other than barely keep you above [breakeven] on the GDP print." In addition, Saluzzi says investors are rightfully worried about a market dominated by "high-speed guys just chasing each other up and down the price ladder." Unsafe at High Speeds As has been widely reported, high-frequency trading routinely accounts for more than 50% of daily U.S. equity trading volume and regularly approaches 70%. Saluzzi isn't opposed to high-frequency trading per se, calling it a "byproduct of the market structure," as detailed in the accompanying video. But he believes that structure is broken, thanks to rules promoting computer-driven trading, most notably Reg NMS. As a result of regulatory changes and new technology, events like the May 6 ‘flash crash' "will happen again," he says. "There's not a doubt in my mind." Many retail investors feel the same way, another reason for the mistrust of the rally and why about $65 billion of the equity fund outflows this year have occurred in the five months since the "flash crash".’
Are TIPs a Gip?: Dave's Daily The
story of the day was the Treasury's
five-year TIP sale. I'm as shocked as Cosmo Kramer on this but shouldn't be
since TIP yields were heading in this direction. Who would buy a bond with a
negative yield? What's the message for investors?
Hyperinflation and soon! If it goes that way the government will have to
reconfigure the CPI to ex everything we do except the cost of government.
Elsewhere there was news existing home sales were higher--big
whoops! Markets rallied higher early mostly on the same old theme: a weak
dollar is a good thing since not much was accomplished at the G-20. The USA is
rapidly becoming the world's laughing stock ... [ Laughing stock indeed! ]
Hope Is Not a Strategy: Or Is It? Moenning ‘Anyone
who has been around the investing game for any length of time is likely
familiar with the old saw, “Hope is not a strategy.” This famous Wall Streetism
reminds investors and traders alike that holding onto a losing position in the
hope that it will come back to your purchase price is not a sound strategy. Nor
is hoping that the stock in question will suddenly come through with blowout
earnings, surprise with a new product, or be bought out by a competitor. No,
the stock market game is about dealing with what is happening, not what you
hope to see in the future. However, it appears to be quite clear that hope is
indeed the singular driving factor in the stock market these days. For example,
there is the hope that Bernanke and Co. will ride in on their white horses to
save the economy with a little something they like to call QE II. There is hope
that the elections will bring an end to the anti-business environment and
perhaps remove some of the uncertainty surrounding taxes, regulations,
etc.There is hope that the economy will continue to improve and that the
Chinese will be able to walk the tightrope between avoiding bubbles and
maintaining a strong economy. There is hope that the G20 gathering will put an
end to the “competitive currency devaluations” (aka currency wars). There is
hope that the American consumer will continue to avoid saving and return to
spending everything they make (and then some). And there is a fair amount of
hope that the PIGI’S acronym will quickly fade from people’s memories. It is my
humble opinion that hope relating to any or all of the above has been
responsible for pushing up the stock market indices since September 1st. At last
check, the S&P sports a gain of nearly 13% over the last 38 trading days
while the venerable DJIA is up 11.2% and the NASDAQ has climbed a nifty 17.3%.
Not bad for a couple months work, eh?. Lots of people are comparing the current
joyride to the upside to the February-April affair, during which S&P gained
roughly 15% over a period of two and one-half months. Perhaps the comparisons
are being made because of the similarities of the rallies in terms of breadth
and duration. Perhaps the comparisons are being made because the Dow is now
back to within a stone’s throw of the highs for this bull market cycle that
were set on April 26th. And perhaps the comparisons have arisen from the idea
that during the Feb-April jaunt, it was also hope that things would be better
going forward that drove the action. However, I’d like to take exception with
that last idea as the current rally’s brand of hope is a horse of a completely
different color. You see, during the market’s spring fling, the economic data
was coming in consistently better than expectations. If you will recall, this
was before the public knew that the recession had ended (although we had been
suggesting such since late summer). Thus, the hope at that time had to do with
the idea that the economic recovery might actually be better than expected. And
since no one in their right mind was overly optimistic about the outlook at
that point in time, suddenly there was a lot of room for discounting the
upside. Of course, the fun ended abruptly when the world started to fret over
the idea that Greece’s financial woes were going to drag the world back into
crisis. And then once that concept took hold, traders immediately tossed aside
the rose colored glasses and started employing the “R” word with regularity.
But, once it became clear that the “soft patch” had subsided, traders began to
once again look ahead to blue skies. Which bring us back to hope. While I am a
trend-follower at heart, I DO need to understand and accept the reasoning
behind the move in order to be wholeheartedly onboard the train. And as such,
I’m growing more than a little concerned that the hope trade may be setting us
up for disappointment at some point in the near future. Unlike the Feb-April
rally, which was based on data, this rally is based on hope and hope alone.
(Well, okay, there have been some decent earnings numbers showing up now and
again and the economic data hasn’t exactly been a disaster.) In short, the hope
is that David Tepper is right – that stocks win regardless of whether or not
the economy grows from here. Now toss in the idea that the Fed’s latest plan
involves pushing rates that it normally doesn’t control lower and you’ve got a
recipe for a declining dollar. And since traders have their fancy new computers
set to buy “risk assets” (commodities, stocks, emerging markets) whenever the
dollar falls, well, it’s been a good time to own equities. However, at some
point, this “trade” is going to run its course. At some point, the dollar’s
decline will end. At some point, reality will set in that the current economic
growth rate (said to be in the 2% - 2.5% range for 2011) can only generate so
much in terms of earnings power. And unless the Fed can magically engineer a
recovery in jobs sooner rather than later, at some point, disappointment might
rear its ugly head. Sorry to be a Debbie Downer on this first day of ski season
(yes fans, Loveland ski area in Colorado once again takes home the prize as the
first resort to crank up its lifts), but I’m of the mind that, at some point,
traders will be reminded of the fact that hope is not a strong reason to keep
buying stocks. But until then, I plan to continue to enjoy the view from these
rose-colored glasses and ride the tide. Disclosure: No positions
Drudgereport:
Dark
clouds for Dems as Obama embarks on last push...
Dem
Hopeful Says Obama Can 'Shove It'...
'He
ignored us and now he's coming into Rhode Island treating us like ATM
machine'...
Debt
Has Increased $5 Trillion Since Speaker Pelosi Vowed, 'No New Deficit
Spending'...
States
Weigh Letting Noncitizens Vote...
REALCLEAR
WRAP: SENATE HOUSE...
ABCNEWS
NOTE MIKE
ALLEN PLAYBOOK MSNBC
FIRST READ WASH
POST RUNDOWN...
REPUBLICANS
'GOTTA SIT IN THE BACK' [ The regressive veiled reference to
‘sit in the back of the bus dark-skinned freedom riders’, the already mentally
trouble wobama has really lost it … he’s such a desperate and pathetic b***
s*** artist … who can take him seriously? I mean, really! What an insult to the
so-called base of constituents he’s appealing to … and, haven’t his actions, ie., no-pros the wall street frauds,
more war, etc., belied his words? He’s so pathetic! So typical! ]
REPORT: First lady 'likely' to meet 'commercial sex workers' in
India!
Presidential
entourage books all 570 rooms in 5-star Taj Mahal Hotel...
Teleprompter
to debut at India's Parliament when Obama speaks...
Photos
show Israeli troops 'abusing Palestinians'...
WIRE:
Fed's secretive $300B CITIBANK bailout...
Dollar at
Risk of Becoming 'Toxic Waste'...
Hits
new 15-year low versus yen...
Inflation-Protected Securities Yield Goes Negative for First Time...
FDIC Head
Sounds Alarm on Foreclosure Litigation...
China,
India, Brazil, Turkey get more power at IMF...
Deficit
Panel Targets Areas to Cut...
U-TURN:
Obama 'to focus on deficit in next 2 years'...
CLINTON
PLAYS TO HALF-EMPTY HIGH SCHOOL GYM
Secret
Iraq war records reveal grim new details (Washington
Post) Logs released by WikiLeaks offer chilling insights about conflict's death
toll and the tactics of Iraqi leaders who have taken over as U.S. troops exit.
[ Now why did I think the u.s.
military’s numbers were all wet? Poll: Does WikiLeaks put soldiers in danger? I
haven’t looked at this poll, but my inner poll says needless wars in other
people’s lands put soldiers at risk, particularly when your nation is defacto
bankrupt. ] Previous: 77,000 Iraqis killed from 2004 to
August 2008, U.S. military says (Washington Post) [ And you can take that to the fraudulent american
bank … riiiiight! … Come on … americans lie about everything and certainly this
… A conservative estimate from AP
through only 2007: Study: 151,000 Iraqis died in conflict’s violence Surveyors
face danger to count casualties from 2003 to 2006 The
Associated Press - updated
1/9/2008 7:15:50 PM ET 2008-01-10T00:15:50 About 151,000 Iraqis died from violence in the
first three years after the United States invaded, concludes the best effort
yet to count deaths — one that still may not settle the fierce debate over the
war's true toll on civilians and others … americans are just lying war criminal
american scum. Obama’s
Finest Hour: Killing Innocent People For “Made-Up Crap” Floyd Empire Burlesque Oct 22, 2010 If ever I am tempted by the siren songs of my tribal
past as a deep-fried, yellow-dawg Democrat, and begin to feel any faint,
atavistic stirrings of sympathy for the old gang, I simply think of things like the scenario below, sketched last week by
Johann Hari, and those wispy ghosts of partisanship past go howling back to the
depths:
Imagine
if, an hour from now, a robot-plane swooped over your house and blasted it to
pieces. The plane has no pilot. It is controlled with a joystick from 7,000
miles away, sent by the Pakistani military to kill you. It blows up all the
houses in your street, and so barbecues your family and your neighbours until
there is nothing left to bury but a few charred slops. Why? They refuse to
comment. They don’t even admit the robot-planes belong to them. But they tell
the Pakistani newspapers back home it is because one of you was planning to
attack Pakistan. How do they know? Somebody told them. Who? You don’t know, and
there are no appeals against the robot.Now imagine it doesn’t end there: these
attacks are happening every week somewhere in your country. They blow up
funerals and family dinners and children. The number of robot-planes in the sky
is increasing every week. You discover they are named “Predators”, or “Reapers”
– after the Grim Reaper. No matter how much you plead, no matter how much you
make it clear you are a peaceful civilian getting on with your life, it won’t
stop. What do you do? If there was a group arguing that Pakistan was an evil
nation that deserved to be violently attacked, would you now start to listen?…[This]
is in fact an accurate description of life in much of Pakistan today, with the
sides flipped. The Predators and Reapers are being sent by Barack Obama’s CIA,
with the support of other Western governments, and they killed more than 700
civilians in 2009 alone – 14 times the number killed in the 7/7 attacks in
London. The floods were seen as an opportunity to increase the attacks, and
last month saw the largest number of robot-plane bombings ever: 22. Over the
next decade, spending on drones is set to increase by 700 per cent.
Friends,
it’s very simple: if you support Barack Obama and the Democrats — even if
reluctantly, even if you’re just being all sophisticatedly super-savvy and
blogospherically strategic about it, playing the “long game” or eleven-dimensional
chess or what have you — you are supporting the outright murder of innocent
people who have never done anything against you or yours. You have walked into
a house, battered down the bedroom door, put the barrel of a gun against the
temple of a sleeping child, and pulled the trigger. That is what you are
supporting, that is what you are complicit in, that is what you yourself
are doing.
]
7
banks closed in Fla., Ga., Ill., Kan., Ariz. WASHINGTON (AP) – ‘Regulators
on Friday shut down a total of seven banks in Florida, Georgia, Illinois,
Kansas and Arizona, lifting to 139 the number of U.S. banks that have fallen
this year as soured loans have mounted and the economy has sputtered …’
Three Outrageously Contrarian Predictions - , On Friday October 22, 2010, 7:10
pm EDT If you've lost money over the past 10 years, this statement may
seem like a personal assault: 'Timing the market is easy and profitable.'
That's the implied conclusion from a recent TrimTabs study.What's the recipe? A
recent Wall Street Journal article drew this lesson from the study: 'Over the
past decade, it was actually quite simple to time the market. All you had to do
was buy when the public was selling and sell when the public was
buying.'Naturally, going against the crowd is easier said than done. That's why
it's often said that successful investing is simple, but it isn't easy.Good
investment opportunities come along only so often. Now seems to be the time. A
good opportunity offers more profit potential than risk of losses. Do
the Opposite 'Buy when the public was selling and sell when the public
was buying,' was the Wall Street Journal's conclusion. So, what's the public
doing right now? The public - this includes individual investors and Wall
Street - is buying everything. Look around you, the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), Dow
Jones (DJI: ^DJI), Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC), small caps, mid caps, international
stocks (NYSEArca: EFA - News),
emerging markets (NYSEArca: EEM - News),
bonds (NYSEArca: AGG - News),
gold (NYSEArca: GLD - News),
silver (NYSEArca: SLV - News),
and many other commodities (NYSEArca: DBC
- News)
are up, up, up. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar (NYSEArca: UUP
- News)
is down. According to Wall Street and the media, the investment universe is
full of profit sweet spots. Stocks right now are a win-win scenario, at least
so they say. Any bad news is viewed to bring about more quantitative easing and
is, therefore, good news and good news is good news anyway. Gold is another
sweet spot. There's no need to worry about inflation or deflation. Gold is sure
to profit either way, or so they say. From a fundamental point of view, gold is
as sound an investment today as real estate was a few years ago. Of course with
gold, this time is different. Isn't it always? The U.S. dollar is doomed
because more quantitative easing (more dollars in circulation) will reduce the
value of the current dollars in the system. The government doesn't care if the
dollar falls to oblivion, so why should you? Engrained Opinions Actually,
there's a good reason to watch what's going on with the dollar. All the assets
mentioned above (stocks, bonds and commodities) are denominated in dollars. A
cheap dollar means higher prices and vice versa. Over the past five months, the
U.S. Dollar Index dropped as much as 15%. Interestingly, it's after a 15% slide
that the greenback has become despised. Investors dislike the dollar as much
today as they did in late 2009 when it was about to lose its reserve currency
status. At that time, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter went out on a limb and
predicted a major U.S. dollar rally. From November 2009 to June 2010, the
dollar soared as much as 20%, a diabolical move for currencies. In June, when
fears about Europe and a crumbling euro currency made the rounds (and optimism
surrounding the dollar was plentiful), the newsletter called for a dollar
correction. Prediction #1 - The Dollar will Rally This
correction has morphed into a decline pervasive enough to push dollar sentiment
to an extreme that, historically, has foreshadowed significant
turnarounds. The notion of a trend reversal is confirmed by technical
indicators. Sunday night's Technical Forecast (part of the ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter) stated: 'Last week's dollar action was encouraging as the U.S.
Dollar Index finished with a green candle low on Friday and since pushed above
the lower acceleration band. That's what bottoms are made of.' Friday's green
candle low was followed by two more green candles. On Tuesday (October 19), the
U.S. Dollar Index closed above its middle acceleration band. [chart] As far as
a candle formation goes, those are the initial stages of a trend reversal. Once
again, a rising dollar is bad for stocks and commodities. Prediction #2
- Commodities (Including Gold and Silver) Will Decline Not only is the
dollar way oversold, the commodity rally is stretched to a point where a sharp
and prolonged reversal could happen any moment. Net speculative positions in
many commodities are at record highs, as is the percentage of bullish traders.
We've seen time and again that extreme optimism is unhealthy for any market.
Albeit not a short-term timing tool, it's a big red flag. Once underway, the
selling pressure should affect nearly all commodities, including oil (NYSEArca:
USO
- News)
and agricultural commodities (NYSEArca: DBA
- News).
Prediction #3 - Nasdaq Should Lead Equity Decline It's been
publicized surprisingly little that the Nasdaq 1000 (Nasdaq: QQQQ
- News)
has already moved above its April recovery high. This has largely been due to
Apple's stellar performance. The Nasdaq's performance from here will be
very telling. If it's able to establish support above Monday's $51.52 high, the
slide in equity prices may be halted temporarily. If it isn't, watch out for a
Nasdaq-led decline across the board. Third One 'Free' - QE2 Won't Work If
you took a poll on Wall Street, 8 out of 10 Ivy League educated, Armani
wearing, Mercedes driving Wall Street Banksters would probably tell you that
QE2 will work. The media agrees. When September's jobless numbers went public,
the figures were much worse than expected, but stocks surged. Why? Associated
Press headline: 'Faith in Fed pushes Dow past 11,000.' When stocks slid on
October 14, hope of QE2 kept things from getting worse. AP headline: 'Stocks
dip; Likely Fed move keeps losses in check.' QE2 may end up working for Wall
Street, but it seems not to have worked for the economy. If it did work, why
would we need QE2? Obviously, the rumor of QE2 was enough to drive up stocks.
Will the actual news deliver the steak or just the sizzle? In POMO They
Trust The fact is that the Federal Reserve's Permanent Open Market
Operation (POMO) purchases of Treasuries have had a direct and delayed effect
on the market's performance. Certain purchases translated into positive
performance 89% of the time (a detailed performance analysis and schedule of
future POMO purchases is available in the November issue of the ETF Profit
Strategy Newsletter). Should You Fight the Fed? Will the Fed
win the tug-of-war against sentiment, valuations, and technical analysis, all
of which point towards a correction, perhaps a drastic one? If history is a
guide, the market will win ... sooner or later. One way of navigating the
current uncertainty is via support and resistance levels. A break through
overhead resistance is likely to result in higher prices, while slicing through
support may open the floodgates. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter,
along with the semi-weekly Technical Forecast, highlights the most recent and
applicable support/resistance levels along with corresponding target
levels.
Wall
St circuit breakers fail to ease market nerves [High frequency churn and earn in motion, and draining main street
/ the nation! ] Mikolajczak NEW YORK (Reuters) – ‘Market circuit breakers put in place
after the May 6 "flash crash" have not stopped large swings in U.S.
stocks and traders remain wary of glitches in the trading system. The speed of
trading, owing to high frequency strategies, means plenty of trades can take
place even after a halt is put in place by circuit breakers. The last stock to
be halted due to a circuit breaker, Progress Energy Inc, had more than 100
trades occur after the stock triggered a halt and resulted in nearly 60
canceled trades. "It's under the
spotlight more now since May 6," said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading
at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey. "I don't want to say it's
knocking at confidence, but some people get frustrated about it." The
circuit breakers were imposed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to
prevent the kind of turmoil seen on May 6 when the Dow Jones industrial average
lost then recouped around 700 points in about 20 minutes. With the new
regulations, head-scratching moves in individual issues are increasingly under
the microscope. On Monday, nearly $500 million in trades in the SPDR S&P
500 ETF Trust were cancelled. The trades occurred at a price of 106.46, several
points below where the index was trading at that time. The NYSE Arca exchange
attributed the trades being completed to an issue with a software release,
causing the closing auction cycle to run at 4:15 p.m. and the trades to be
ruled broken by NYSE Arca Market Management. Large orders filled on illiquid
exchanges -- a practice known as "ripping the book" -- have resulted
in halts of large stocks such as Nucor Corp. and Cisco Systems Inc. "It shows you the fragmented market
isn't necessarily working. When you had a central liquidity place when there
was two dominant exchanges you didn't have that type of situation," added
Saluzzi. Lately a handful of very small stocks have been the target of trading
strategies that result in sharp upward moves, seemingly without news. LiveDeal,
a company with a tiny market capitalization of $2.68 million, saw its share
price more than triple to $14 a share on Thursday from $4.42 the day before.
Shares fell to $9.89 on Friday …’
Trouble Comes in Threes: Dave's Daily
Putting
an End to the 'Cash on the Sidelines' Myth Roche ‘We’ve highlighted the financial punditry’s obsession with “cash
on the sidelines” over the course of the last year in attempts to show that
there is really no such thing. The argument from an investment perspective is
utterly absurd. In general, investors like to think that their cash is some
sort of fuel for the market that will drive prices higher. This is easily
debunked simply by looking at the transactions at work. When you buy stocks you
are effectively swapping cash with the seller. It’s that simple. There is no
change in net financial assets. You merely swapped cash for stock and the
seller swapped stock for cash. The price you arrive at is merely a function of
psychology. Who is the more eager buyer or seller? While there is technically
“cash on the sidelines” this amount of cash on the sidelines is relatively
stable in any given period. It’s not changing with every transaction as many
would have you believe. Therefore, there is no fuel or pile of cash that is
just waiting to be injected into the market and drive prices higher. In terms
of corporate balance sheets the argument is equally misleading. You’ll often
hear the financial punditry discuss the asset side of the balance sheet while
ignoring the liability side. There’s all this “cash on the sidelines” just
waiting to hire people, merge with other companies, etc. The only problem is,
debt has been surging at the same time that cash levels rise. We’ve discussed
this thoroughly in the past (see
here), but Mish at Global
Economic Analysis (with the help of Tableau Software) provided a
great visual tool today that puts this reality into perspective. We can see
from the following tool that corporate balance sheets aren’t nearly in the
excellent condition that most people believe.
CASH ON THE SIDELINES? DON’T BELIEVE IT. [CHART]
TOTAL CASH $3,705.5 BILLION -
TOTAL DEBT $4,455.1 BILLION = NET CASH (749.6 BILLION)’
Rallyin’ into the close to keep
suckers suckered on top of bad news! The October Philadelphia Fed Index hit 1.0, below the 1.5 that had been
widely forecast. Meanwhile, Leading Indicators for September increased 0.3%, as
expected ( but based upon the ‘stock prices floating on air and b*** s***’
component of same – the ultimate ‘bootstrap’ ). This is
an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits (these lower dollar,
hyperinflationary currency manipulations / translations to froth paper stocks
will end quite badly as in last crash)! This
is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression.
The past up moves were manipulated bull (s***) cycles (at best) in a secular
bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the
prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission
and sell into. This is a typical wall street ‘programmed computerized
high-frequency churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior
crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until
justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted,
jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.The Stock Market's
Long Decline Has Begun Smith ‘The Fed's campaign to boost the
risk-trade in equities by destroying the dollar has reached its limits. Now
gravity will take hold as stocks enter a Long Decline.On Monday, Daily
Finance published my article Is the Market Ready
to Roll Over? These Signs Say Yes.
QE2
Not Such a Slam-Dunk? Krasting The 100% certain sure thing in the market
today is that QE-2 will come on November 3rd and that it will be decisive in
its scope. Well I am not so sure any more.
I am certain that the Fed reads Zero Hedge. But how
much influence they have is a question. When it gets up to Time magazine
however, it is another matter altogether. It is not possible for the Fed to
avoid the collective roar that is coming from across the country at this point.
If the Fed blunders with an unpopular QE-2 the results will be disastrous. Not
only will the economy tank but the Fed will have lost a good chunk of its
remaining credibility. The downside risks to Bernanke are enormous. I don’t
think he believes he is in a popularity contest, but he does know he can’t run
monetary policy with protesters outside his door. How much is he prepared to
gamble given that he clearly does not have a consensus amongst his own board?
He is an academic, not a gambler.
it may come in a little stronger than the second
quarter. So we have to keep our eye on that.
Bond traders panicked and hit bids on long coupons. I
like that read. Bullard gave us a hint that maybe this QE-2 is not such a
slam-dunk. (See
ZH story on Bullard)
I started this with; “The 100% certain sure thing in
the market today is that QE-2 will come on November 3rd and that it will be
decisive in its scope.” If that certainty factor falls to 50% the S&P
is going to take a big dump. That possibility was simply not in the print at
the close.
The
Unintended Consequences of QE2 Roche ‘It looks like the Fed is already
beginning to worry about the unintended consequences of QE2. In a speech earlier
this week Richard Fisher discussed an important consequence of QE. He said:
In my darkest moments, I have begun to wonder if the
monetary accommodation we have already engineered might even be working in the
wrong places.
It certainly is working in the wrong places. While
the Fed creates paper profits in stocks and bonds QE appears to also be
influencing the price of commodities. Commodity prices have surged in recent
weeks as the Fed has driven the dollar lower. What’s so pernicious here is the
margin compression that Gaius discussed the
other day. This is crucial because the margin recovery has been the single most
important component of the equity market recovery.
What’s so interesting here is that Ben Bernanke might
actually be creating a double headwind for the economy in the coming quarters.
Not only is he reducing margins for many corporations, but because quantitative
easing is inherently deflationary (because it replaces interest bearing assets
with non-interest bearing assets) it is not helping aggregate demand. From the
perspective of a corporation this means stagnant revenues and higher input
costs. That will only increase the reluctance to hire. Of course, the Fed
thinks they can prop up particular markets and generate a “wealth effect” that
is unsupported by the underlying fundamentals. Interestingly, in the long-run,
Mr. Bernanke might be creating more damage than he even understands. But at
least someone at the Fed is beginning to wonder if this strategy is viable.‘
‘White House
seeks to remove Obama’ Press
TV ‘A US analyst says some officials
in the White House and the administration are considering legal action to
remove Barack Obama from presidency.
Oct 22, 2010 A US analyst says
some officials in the White House and the administration are considering legal
action to remove Barack Obama from presidency. “Right now, there is discussion
in Washington and within the government of using the 25th amendment to the US
Constitution to remove Obama from office,” Edward Spannaus from Executive
Intelligence Review said in an interview with Press TV on Friday. The amendment
allows for removing the president if he/she has incapacity either physically or
mentally. “In this case, Obama is mentally incapable of fulfilling the office
of president,” Spannaus went on to say. Referring to Obama’s plummeting
popularity, mostly due to the recent economic collapse in the US, Spannaus
said, “There is no way that his presidency could be salvaged at this point and
it does not really make any difference who wins the congressional elections.”
“He was not qualified to be the president in the first place. He was put in there
precisely because he would act as a puppet and they knew he would be a puppet
for Wall Street, for the London financiers and for the British,” Spannaus
added. A recent survey from Gallup has revealed that more than half of American
voters would not support the incumbent US president’s re-election.A recent
survey from Gallup has revealed that more than half of American voters would
not support the re-election of President Barack Obama.
Imagine
if, an hour from now, a robot-plane swooped over your house and blasted it to
pieces. The plane has no pilot. It is controlled with a joystick from 7,000
miles away, sent by the Pakistani military to kill you. It blows up all the
houses in your street, and so barbecues your family and your neighbours until
there is nothing left to bury but a few charred slops. Why? They refuse to
comment. They don’t even admit the robot-planes belong to them. But they tell
the Pakistani newspapers back home it is because one of you was planning to attack
Pakistan. How do they know? Somebody told them. Who? You don’t know, and there
are no appeals against the robot.Now imagine it doesn’t end there: these
attacks are happening every week somewhere in your country. They blow up
funerals and family dinners and children. The number of robot-planes in the sky
is increasing every week. You discover they are named “Predators”, or “Reapers”
– after the Grim Reaper. No matter how much you plead, no matter how much you
make it clear you are a peaceful civilian getting on with your life, it won’t
stop. What do you do? If there was a group arguing that Pakistan was an evil
nation that deserved to be violently attacked, would you now start to
listen?…[This] is in fact an accurate description of life in much of Pakistan
today, with the sides flipped. The Predators and Reapers are being sent by
Barack Obama’s CIA, with the support of other Western governments, and they
killed more than 700 civilians in 2009 alone – 14 times the number killed in
the 7/7 attacks in London. The floods were seen as an opportunity to increase
the attacks, and last month saw the largest number of robot-plane bombings
ever: 22. Over the next decade, spending on drones is set to increase by 700
per cent.
Friends,
it’s very simple: if you support Barack Obama and the Democrats — even if
reluctantly, even if you’re just being all sophisticatedly super-savvy and
blogospherically strategic about it, playing the “long game” or
eleven-dimensional chess or what have you — you are supporting the outright murder
of innocent people who have never done anything against you or yours. You have
walked into a house, battered down the bedroom door, put the barrel of a gun
against the temple of a sleeping child, and pulled the trigger. That is what
you are supporting, that is what you are complicit in, that is what you
yourself are doing.
Drudgereport: REPORTS:
Illegals canvassing for votes...
Angle
to Reid: Man up, man up, man up...
Vegas:
Record 15% Unemployment...
Reid
defends million-dollar RITZ-CARLTON condo...
Obama
T-shirt serves as voting 'dress code' reminder ...
NOONAN:
'Tea Party' saved GOP from Bush...
PELOSI
CHALLENGED IN SAN FRAN...
Republican
candidate: Violent overthrow of govt 'on table'...
'Our
nation founded on violence'...
GREATEST DATA LEAK IN MILITARY HISTORY!
Feds
shut 6 banks in FL, GA, IL, KS; 138 bank failures this year...
WASHPOST: Black Panthers case taps deep racial divisions at
Justice...
'BUT
FOR ME, WE'D BE IN WORLD-WIDE DEPRESSION’ … Wow! … '...
Water
on the Moon: A Billion Gallons! ...may
bolster case for manned [military] base [ May? Come on! … biggest
boondoggle since wmd’s inIraq and the last fake appollo video? … ]
U.S.
pushes currency accord (Washington Post) [ Then what will be fraudulent
wall street’s excuse for the air-ball bubble stocks. Come
on! … Get real! They haven’t the slightest clue what they’re doing. The
October Philadelphia Fed Index hit 1.0, (50%) below the 1.5 that had been
widely forecast. Meanwhile, Leading Indicators for September increased 0.3%, as
expected (but based upon the ‘stock prices floating on air and b*** s***’
component of same). This is an especially great
opportunity to sell / take profits (these lower dollar, hyperinflationary
currency manipulations / translations to froth paper stocks will end quite
badly as in last crash)! This
is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression.
The past up moves were manipulated bull (s***) cycles (at best) in a secular
bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the
prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders
commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street ‘programmed
computerized high-frequency churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as
in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end
until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally
prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.The Stock Market's
Long Decline Has Begun Smith ‘The Fed's campaign to boost the
risk-trade in equities by destroying the dollar has reached its limits. Now
gravity will take hold as stocks enter a Long Decline.On Monday, Daily
Finance published my article Is the Market Ready
to Roll Over? These Signs Say Yes. ] The move is conceived largely as a new tack in a dispute over
China's policies, but it is poised to become a battle for the Group of 20 major
economic powers.
Wednesdays
Rebound Does Not Alter My Market Outlook
Suttmeier The yield on the 10-Year note is between my monthly pivot at
2.555 and my quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 2.265 and 2.249. Gold is
trading around my monthly pivot at $1343.7 between my quarterly value level at
$1306.4 and weekly risky level at $1373.6. Crude oil is just above my weekly
pivot at $82.38 with semiannual and monthly risky levels at $83.94 and $84.74.
The euro is trying to rally to this week’s risky level at 1.4074. The major
equity averages remain overbought with overhead risky levels. For the Dow my
weekly risky level is 11,229, my annual risky level is 11,235, and my
semiannual risky level is 11,296. I answer readers’ questions on the Dow Theory
Buy Signal. I comment on the Fed’s Beige Book.
10-Year Note – (2.475) Weekly, annual and annual value levels are
2.620, 2.813 and 2.999 with monthly and daily pivots at 2.555 and 2.539, and
quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 2.265 and 2.249. click to enlarge [chart] Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Comex Gold – ($1344.2) Quarterly, semiannual and annual value
levels are $1306.4, $1260.8, $1218.7 and $1115.2 with my monthly pivot at
$1343.7, and daily and weekly risky levels at $1369.0 and $1373.6. [chart] Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Nymex Crude
Oil – ($82.54) My annual value level
is $77.05 with daily and weekly pivots at $81.41 and $82.38, and semiannual and
monthly risky levels at $83.94 and $84.74.
[chart]
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
The Euro – (1.3964) My quarterly value level is 1.3318 with
daily and weekly risky levels at 1.3948 and 1.4060. My monthly value level is
1.2342 with semiannual risky level at 1.4733. [chart]
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Daily Dow: (11,108) Monthly, semiannual, annual and quarterly
value levels are 10,857, 10,558, 10,379 and 8,523 with daily, weekly, annual
and semiannual risky levels at 11,132, 11,229, 11,235, 11,290 and 11,296. My
annual risky level at 11,235 was tested at the April 26th high of 11,258.01.
[chart] Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Reader
Questions about Dow Theory
1.
Do you think the Dow
will close above 11,205.03 triggering a Dow Theory Buy Signal? First of
all Dow Transports must also close above 4,806.1 to confirm a Dow Theory Buy. I
am not betting that such a signal will occur, as my longer term forecast is
“Dow 8,500 before Dow 11,500”.
2.
If the get a Dow Theory
Buy signal what is the upside target? If the Dow does not have a monthly
close above 11,296 the Dow Theory Buy could become a false signal. I do
not have a specific target above 11,296 as there are no higher risky levels.
This happens when a market goes parabolic, in stocks called a “melt-up” as all
shorts are forced to cover.
3.
What would negate a Dow
Theory Buy Signal? I will track the weekly chart as the Dow is
overbought. A weekly close below the five-week modified moving average with
declining MOJO would be the sell signal. The five-week modified moving
average is at 10,727 this week and will move higher each week.
IN SUM, I STILL FORECAST “DOW 8,500 BEFORE
DOW 11,500” …
The Beige Book Reflects Modest Economic Growth, but
Let’s Focus on the Headwinds
·
Housing markets
remain weak with most Districts reporting sales below year-ago levels. Reports
on prices suggested stability, however. Conditions in the commercial real
estate sector were subdued, and construction was expected to remain weak.
Lending activity was stable in most Districts.
·
Bernanke is worried
about deflation but that’s not evident in the Beige Book. Input costs, most notably for agricultural
commodities and industrial metals, rose further. Shipping rates increased, and
retailers in some Districts noted rising wholesale prices.
·
Demand for
transportation services appears to have slowed.
What’s Ahead for the Foreclosure Mess?
·
The big banks are
saying their paperwork is accurate so foreclosures should commence soon.
·
The attorneys general
in all states are investigating whether lenders violated state laws.
·
Evicted homeowners are
hiring lawyers for suits against the major lenders.
·
Judges will scrutinize
foreclosure documents with skepticism.
·
Congress will hold
hearings.
·
All of this remains the
fall-out of the Subprime Crisis.
Disclosure: No positions
It's
Time to Take Some Profits
Are
the Markets Headed for a Correction? Babak ‘The stock market has been in rally
mode since the start of September. Since then the S&P 500 has gained 13%,
very close to the ~15% it gained from the early February 2010 lows until
mid-April 2010. With that has come a few breadth signals that the rally is
getting tired and may need to rest or retrace before continuing.Earlier I
mentioned the overbought breadth reading from the percentage
of issues in the S&P 500 trading above their 50 day moving average. This
was the highest since April’s top. That measure has backed away slightly from
the peak (93%) and it now at 89%.But other measures of market internals are
very elevated. For example, the daily advance decline statistics are very high
and the McClellan Summation index, which is based on that raw data is reaching
levels we haven’t seen since early May 2010, as the market was rolling over: Click
to see a larger chart in a new tab: (chart)
Usually when the McClellan Summation index peaks around this level, the stock
market either corrects or treads water to digest its gains. The exception is
when we have a very high velocity momentum market coming out of an incredibly
oversold bear market condition. We saw this twice in the past 10 years: first
in 2003 and then in 2009. I’ve drawn circles around those instances to mark
them better. With those exceptions, however, the McClellan Summation index is a
good measure of how ‘tired’ breadth is. By the way, I use the Nasdaq McClellan
Summation index instead of the NYSE variation due to the pollution of
non-operating company issues trading on the big board which skew the breadth
data significantly. Click to see a larger chart in a new tab: (chart)
The other breadth measure I refer to repeatedly is the analysis of the number
of new highs relative to new lows. The High-Low index is basically a ratio of the
number of new 52 week highs divided by the number of new 52 week lows added to
the new highs. Since it can be rather jittery, I’ve smoothed it with a 10 day
(or 2 trading week) moving average. You can see the same two periods of extreme
momentum when the needle got stuck almost consistently to 90-100%. Excluding
those, a reading this high corresponds to a market top: Click to see a
larger chart in a new tab: (chart)
Fibonacci Target Moving away from market internals, we can take a look at
the charts based on simple resistance and support. With such a rally in place,
it is normal for the market to consolidate the gains before moving forward,
especially with the April highs so close and acting as resistance. (chart)
A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement between the low in early July (1010.91) to the
‘top’ from Monday (1185.53) gives a target area at 1118. This also dovetails
nicely with the previous resistance which pushed back the S&P 500 in mid
June and early August. So as a previous resistance level, this is a natural
support area for the market to retest.’
Fundamentals
Always Matter The Housing Time
Bomb ‘What a wacky
couple days in the market eh? Whoa! Volatility is back! None of this helps from
a confidence standpoint of course. The dollar trade the past few days was
absolutely ridiculous (click to enlarge): [chart]
Crazy isn't it? Moves like this on the dollar just are not supposed to happen.
Stocks and other commodities caught fire once the dollar started collapsing
yesterday morning. We sold off later in the day to close up around 1%. What was
interesting yesterday was watching the bond market. Take a look at the 10 year
(click to enlarge): [chart]
As you can see, bonds actually moved higher despite the sharp rally in stocks.
We should have seen bonds move in the other direction as the market soared
higher. This pretty much tells you that there wasn't much conviction behind the
rally. Most investors remain scared and prefer to sit in bonds. The move higher
was all about the falling dollar yesterday. Why this is a good thing for stocks
is beyond me. I also think that all of the money the Fed is creating is one of
the reasons why we are seeing both stocks and bonds rising at the same time. We
had another POMO from the Fed yesterday, much like we saw on Monday so
yesterday's move makes a little more sense from a "funny money"
standpoint. Fundamentally of course none of this makes any sense, but we all
know that's have gone out the window for the time being. Just keep one thing in
the back of your mind: The fundamentals always matter. Just ask anyone that
leveraged themselves into the tech bubble. Let me finish up with a great video
of Jim Rogers aired on CNBC Asia last night. Jim hits the cover off the ball as
he slams CNBC, and rips into the artificial book values of the banks that the
analysts feed the bulltards on Bubblevision. Enjoy!
Investor Bullishness, Low Fear Level Hint At Market Top Harding As all investors and traders are aware,
investor sentiment is a ‘contrary’ indicator, always at high levels of
bullishness and complacency at market tops, and at extreme levels of
bearishness and fear at market bottoms. Because sentiment can remain at extreme
levels for quite some time it cannot be used to time the market, but when it
reaches those extremes it does serve as a warning to keep an eye on other
conditions and signals. The results of the weekly member poll of by the
American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) were released last night,
and showed bullishness at 49.6% and bearishness at 25.2%, for a spread of 24.4.
The poll reached 50.9% bullish a month ago, so it remains in its warning zone
around 50% bullish. It reached only 48.5% bullish, 29.7% bearish at the April
top this year.The VIX Index (aka the Fear Index) is also showing a low level of
fear (high level of bullishness and complacency), bouncing around 20, in the
area associated with rally tops since the last bull market ended in 2007, as
marked by the vertical red lines in the chart below. (Chart) And the October 12
Investors Intelligence Sentiment poll showed 47.2% bulls, only 22.5% bears. So,
it might be wise to at least be aware of the sentiment situation at this point,
particularly with the Dow’s internal strength, as measured by its Relative
Strength Index, in negative divergence with the Dow’s last high (its RSI made
lower highs). That was also the situation at the tops of the previous rallies
of this year, as marked by the short-red lines on the chart. (Chart)
Initial
Claims Fall More Than Expected (Two weeks to election – desperation mode)
NEW YORK (TheStreet) – ‘The
number of Americans filing unemployment claims for the first time fell more
than expected last week according to a labor department report released early
Thursday.
Initial
weekly claims fell by 23,000 to 452,000 in the week ended Oct. 16, from the
previous week. But the magnitude of the drop was exaggerated by the Labor
Department's upward revision of the previous week's figure to 475,000 from
462,000. Still, analysts were expecting initial claims to drop by 7,000 to
452,000, according to consensus estimates from Briefing.com…’
Drudgereport:
264
HOURS: Key Senate Battles Tighten...
NOONAN:
'Tea party' saved GOP from Bush...
Axelrod
Suggests Dem Upset: 'Stay Up For The Full Night'...
ELECTION
MONTH: Millions of early voters...
GALLUP:
Obama's Approval Rating at New Low...
Wall
St mogul picked for State Dept post...
FANNIE/GOLDMAN
lobbyist tapped as National Security Advisor… (Wow!)...
FANNIE,
FREDDIE bailout could double...
French
union calls for massive new pension protest...
DAY
9: Chaos as airports are blockaded...
'Birthright'
of privileges...
Fuel
short as port, refinery strikes drag on...
Sarkozy
lashes out...
Connecticut
law firm opens drive-thru window … [ This doesn’t surprise me a bit based upon
experience with such connecticut liars as coan et als, etc. ] ...
SHOWDOWN: French Strikes Intensify...
BROKE
UK SLASHES 500,000 GOV'T JOBS...
SHOWDOWN:
French Strikes Grow ...
Tourists
warned to stay away as violence spirals...
'Birthright'
of privileges...
Will
Americans Follow Mass Civil Unrest?
Will
the Federal Reserve Cause a Civil War?
NJ
Toll Worker Earns $321,985... [Such is life in the multi-ethnic mob-infested /
controlled, pervasively corrupt, garbage state (ny, northeast, dc metro/ va,
cal, not far behind) … could you imagine the figures for pols / judges, etc.,
if bribes and drug money, etc., were included. ] ‘…It took place as tolls were
being increased. The biggest expense uncovered in the audit was $30 million in
unjustified bonuses to employees and management in 2008 and 2009 without
consideration of performance…’
Sarkozy
vows crack down...
DAY
6: Violent turn...
Thousands
protest against looming cuts in London...
SHOWDOWN: China halting key minerals to USA...
ANGER...
HAS
THE FED RUN OUT OF IDEAS? [ Quite some time ago, actually. ]
THE
'INFLATION' OPTION...
Dollar
Declines for Fifth Week...
Support
for Afghanistan war at all-time low...
17
SOLDIERS KILLED IN PAST 3 DAYS...
Limbaugh:
Obama looks 'demonic' in new photos … and limbaugh knows demonic, himself and
relative wobama ... [Obama
Distant Cousins with Palin, Limbaugh, Bush |
CNSnews.com Obama Distant Cousins with Palin, Limbaugh,
Bush. Obama's Related to Palin. Wednesday, October 13, 2010.
By Jocelyn Noveck, Associated Press ... www.cnsnews.com/news/.../obama-distant-cousins-palin-limbaugh-bushes (wobama, palin, limbaugh, bush distant cousins … I knew there were some
dark secrets there … hillbilly heroin, etc.. – Wow! Talk about the
nation-declining dangers of inbreeding! Poor defacto bankrupt, pervasively
corrupt america never had a chance! ) ]
ABCNEWS:
63 Dem House Seats in 'Serious Danger'...
Barone:
Dems find careers threatened by ObamaCare votes...
GALLUP:
Unemployment at 10.0% in Mid-October...
The Stock Market's
Long Decline Has Begun Smith ‘The Fed's campaign to boost the risk-trade in
equities by destroying the dollar has reached its limits. Now gravity will take
hold as stocks enter a Long Decline.On Monday, Daily Finance
published my article Is the Market Ready
to Roll Over? These Signs Say Yes. On Tuesday, October 19, the
market did roll over.Is this merely a brief hiccup on the way to S&P500
1,500 and Dow 15,000, or the first stages in a Long Decline? Here is the
evidence to support the idea that stocks are entering a Long Decline.Back
on October 8 I looked at some of these issues in Look Out Below
(I've got a bad feeling about this).As always, please note this is
not investment advice, it is merely the musings of an amateur observer; please
review the HUGE GIANT BIG FAT DISCLAIMER below.First up, the U.S.
dollar, which the Fed has been destroying to prop up equities before the
election: (Chart)
Alas, there is pushback from various forces against this destruction of the
dollar, and as the dollar climbs then the see-saw tips and equities decline.
Those predicting the continued destruction of the dollar see a double-top
pattern suggesting "the top is in;" I see a long-term uptrend line
and a line of resistance around 90 that will eventually be broken to the
upside. Time will tell who is right, the dollar Bears or the dollar Bulls. Mr.
VIX is waving the yellow flag of "crash ahead." Complacency in
the face of sobering financial realities is not just unreal but completely
deranged. To note but a few:
1.
A Eurozone debt crisis which has not been resolved, despite the propaganda.
2.
A massive credit/real estate bubble in China which will burst, just like every
other bubble in history, despite the many voices claiming "there is no
bubble in Chinese real estate."
3.
A foreclosure/MBS/bank insolvency structural crisis in the U.S. which has
barely started.
Note
that the VIX is marking out a long-term uptrend of higher lows, meaning
increasing volatility is the backdrop against which the market acts out its
various dramatics. (Chart)
The broad-based S&P 500 (SPX) is looking toppy and vulnerable on the weekly
chart. Note the declining volume as retail investors continue pulling tens
of billions of dollars out of the pump-and-dump charade known as the U.S. stock
market. Also note the bearish cross of the 20-day MA dipping below the 50-day
MA, signaling the start of a downtrend, and the weakening MACD trend. Kissing
the resistance of the 200-day moving average and then rolling over is a classic
market move. (Chart)
Beneath the new high notched by the NADAQ 100 (NDX) we see marked weakness.Now
that Apple has rolled over, then who's left to keep the tech-heavy NDX afloat?
Google (GOOG),
Amazon (AMZN)
and Priceline (PCLN)? Three companies out of 100 is a very narrow
market, and one vulnerable to just the sort of rollover we are now witnessing. (Chart)
The other "market leader" sector, the financials, are running a
high fever. Bogus "earnings" from the money-center banks (reduce
your reserves against losses by $6 billion and surprise, you "booked a
profit" on paper) have lifted the financial ETF XLF off the crumbling edge
of meltdown, but at some point the flag/wedge pattern here will break big up or
down. Does anyone with skin in the game seriously think banks are poised to
reap vast new profits? Really? From where? Enough to offset the tens of
billions they will be losing as the MBS/foreclosure fraud bills come due? (Chart)
There is very little support in this chart once it breaks below $12.50: next
stop, $7.50 and then $5. Disclosure: I am short the XLF via puts and long FAZ. HUGE GIANT BIG FAT
DISCLAIMER: Nothing on this site should be construed as investment
advice or guidance. It is not intended as investment advice or guidance, nor is
it offered as such. It is solely the opinion of the writer, who is NOT an
investment counselor/professional. All the content of this website is solely an
expression of his personal interests and is posted as free-of-charge opinion
and commentary. If you seek investment advice, consult a registered, qualified
investment counselor (As with any other professional service, confirm their
track record and referrals).’
We Are
Heading Into a Hyperinflationary Storm? Summers ‘In the last month and a
half, stocks have COMPLETELY returned to the atmosphere of March-April 2010: an
atmosphere in which stocks are overbought, overstretched, and yet KEEP
rallying. [chart] As you can see, the daily RSI has just touched “overbought”
status at 70. From a strictly technical standpoint, the next lines of
resistance are 1,180, then 1,205 on the S&P 500. We’ve now got layers upon
layers of support as well: [chart] Most market analysts would look at this
set-up and say that we’re in a new bull market. I do not think that is the
case. Instead, I think the market is discounting major inflation and possibly
hyperinflation. Indeed, if stocks are overbought and overextended, their
performance is nothing compared to that of Gold: [chart] As you can see, the
precious metal has erupted higher since mid-August. As I write this, bullion is
up 23% since March 2010. Compare this to the S&P 500’s performance of 1.3%
over the same time period, and it’s clear which asset class is the one to own.
Indeed, priced in Gold, stocks have done nothing since April. [chart] This final chart is key
to understanding what’s happening in the markets. In plain terms, stocks are
NOT creating wealth, they are rallying based on Dollar devaluation, If you
price them in non-paper currency (Gold), they are LOSING purchasing power. This is also clear
when you compare the S&P 500’s performance to that of the US Dollar over
the last few months. [chart] As you can see, we have a near perfect inverse
correlation here, with stocks rallying as the US Dollar falls. With that in
mind, we need to focus on the US currency, since its drop is what’s fueling
this rampant speculation in stocks and commodities. [chart] The US Dollar is
now oversold and nearing its multi-year trendline. If we DO NOT bounce
here, then the next line of support is at 74. After that, it’s the 2008 low
(also the 20 year low) of 71. I have to be blunt here: if the US Dollar DOES
NOT bounce soon, a hyper-inflationary scenario is INCREASINGLY likely in the
US. Indeed on a weekly basis a break down past 74 on the US Dollar would
trigger a MASSIVE Head and Shoulders pattern which has a downside target of 40
or so (roughly 50% lower than where the US Dollar is today). If this collapse
were to occur, you would see hyperinflation erupt in the US similar to that of
Weimar Germany. Precious metals would erupt higher and the US Dollar would no
longer be the reserve currency of the world. [chart] What’s truly
worrisome is that the Fed is hell bent on enacting the exact same policies that
have created the Dollar collapse (and the rally in stocks) over the last few
months, namely, additional Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) ramp jobs.
The name sounds clever, but it really just consists of the Fed buying US debt
from the large private banks, which in turn take the Fed’s money and buy
stocks. Indeed, the Fed just announced it will be monetizing an additional $32
billion worth of US debt in the next few weeks. The schedule for these ramp
jobs is as follows:
-October 15:
-October 18:
-October 20:-
-October 22:
-October 26:
-October 28:
-November 1:
-November 4:
-November 8:
In plain terms, the Fed is going to keep doing what it’s been doing: trashing
the US Dollar to pump stocks. And it’s going to do this to the tune of some $10
billion per week over the next month. Thus, as ridiculous as it sounds, the
stocks up/ US Dollar down trend of the last two months is likely to continue
into early November. But if the US Dollar doesn’t bounce soon and start rallying
with force, we’re heading into a VERY nasty period. Disclosure:
None’
Markets Thrust Headlong Into the
Maelstrom of Correction Now that Apple (AAPL)
earnings have come and gone, the market has likely commenced its topping
process and investors should expect choppy sessions ahead. Tops come in two
forms. Markets either set a conclusive top, which is followed by 10-15 sessions
of straight down (much like we saw in late June), or they tend to consolidate
through a series of huge up and down moves (like we saw in January, April and
July). Given the velocity of this move up, the bulls will simply not give up
that easily. This 170-point whacking will be swiftly answered by the bulls. But
don't get too complacent or think that we're headed much higher from here as we
limp into the mid-term elections and QE2. We'll see a good fight from the
bulls, much like we did for 10 sessions before topping in late April. But the
bears will win this battle and we'll get a much needed correction. It's healthy
for the markets after a move like we've had. Yet, unlike these past few
corrections since April, this correction could very likely present us with a
good buying opportunity. In fact, I think that this correction could be the
last we'll see in a very long time. What I suspect will happen is that we'll
see a very severe sell-off followed by another 2009-type leg up in the markets.
There's a very large number of reasons why we're set to sell-off. But seeing as
how the vast majority (>99%) of market participants simply misconstrue the
difference between the weight of evidence and conclusion, I won't be surprised
to see the idiocy that usually comes with the writing of these types of
articles. Yet, because I like to take on tasks which are obviously futile, I'll
give it a shot nonetheless. Here are the reasons why we're probably going to
see a significant sell-off very shortly, if we haven't started already. The
vast majority of these reasons come by way of Cobra's Market View. I'm just
summarizing what he has already said over the past few weeks. But the evidence
has now gotten overwhelmingly bearish.
1. Commercial Hedges are far too net short the NASDAQ-100. Whenever
commercial traders get this short the NDX, there is a very high likelihood for
a correction. And seeing as how the NASDAQ led this move higher; as goes the
NASDAQ-100, so goes the market. Commercial hedgers took record short positions
in October. More than double what we saw ahead of the 2008 top. This chart is
courtesy of SentimentTrader and annotations are
courtesy of Cobra's Market View. See here.
2. The AAII Bull Ratio (4-week average) is way too high. There's a very
strong correlation between market tops and bullish sentiment getting
over-extended. Notice the strong correlation between market tops and extreme
levels in AAII
(click). Again, this chart is courtesy of SentimentTrader, the find and annotations
courtesy of Cobra's Market View.
3. Too many Reversals. Peter (Yong) Pan, the author of Cobra's Market
View, noticed a strong correlation between market tops and multiple reversal
days. We've had far too many reversal days now. In fact, this is the highest
number of reversal days recorded for any rally without a correction since 2008.
Good game? We've had 4 actual bearish reversals into the red and 8 or more
reversals that while didn't close red, were deep reversals nonetheless. Again, notice the
correlation between tops and reversals.
4. Institutional selling divergence from the market getting high. Though
the market continued to rise through October, institutional selling starting to
pick up. This also has a high correlation to tops in the market. See Cobra's
Market View chart here.
5. VIX at 1-Month Low in October. Here's a table outlining the S&P
500's performance in the 2-3 weeks after the VIX hits a one-month low in the
month of October. The odds highly favor the bears under these circumstances.
See here.
6. Up Big on Off-Season. Whenever the S&P 500 is up in the
off-earnings season, the tendency has been to sell the market during earnings
season. The last three times the S&P 500 has been up 5% or more in the
off-season, the average sell-off during earnings season has been about 5%. See here.
7. ISEE Index & ETF Only hitting too many extremes. There's also a
very high correlation to tops in the market whenever, on multiple days, we see
a reading of over 100 on the call-put ratio on the indices (Index & ETF
Only ISEE). Whenever we start to see a lot of hedging or outright shorting near
the end of a big rally like we've had, its been a pretty big sign that we're
headed lower. This chart is courtesy of Cobra's Market View and the International
Securities Exchange. Note the high correlation
between tops in the market, and multiple days of high ISEE index readings.
8. Broken Rising Wedge. We have a confirmed broken rising wedge
on the SPY as of Tuesday. That is pretty bearish. Rising wedges are
by their nature bearish formations to begin with as nearly 70% of the cases
will usually end with a breakout to the downside.
9. Lower Trend Line Failure. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)
broke its lower trend line Tuesday. The DJIA tends to lead the market.
Tuesday's failure is just another piece of evidence suggesting we're headed
lower.
10. Apple Weakening. Now for the grand finale. Apple is the unequivocal
market leader and was the market leader in this huge September rally. Now just
because Apple sold off on earnings doesn't mean that this particular move up is
over. In fact, there are cases where Apple has reversed out of its sell-off to
make new highs days later. But those cases are very few. If Apple closes under
$300 a share, it will be a very bad sign for this market, and particularly for
the QQQQ (given the fact that it's nearly 20% of the
weighting of the NASDAQ-100).
There's some strong evidence that Apple is very overextended. You can see the
arguments making a case for an intermediate term top in Apple (2-3 months) here.
Now for the big disclaimer. This is the part that 99% of the people who are in
the financial industry have difficulty comprehending: Just because the evidence
overwhelmingly favors the bear case, just because the correlations are very
high that we've either topped or are approaching a top to this rally, just
because commercial traders are super net short, doesn't mean that we
are going to sell off with 100% certainty! This is just evidence!
Evidence needs to be weighed against other considerations. Right now the
balance of the evidence supports a conclusion that the market is about to
undergo a correction. If the market doesn't happen to sell-off from here, it
doesn't make the conclusion or the evidence any less valid. Just because an
indicator doesn't work one time, doesn't mean that the entire sample of cases
becomes invalidated. Most of the indicators above have such a high level of
reliability that any one of them individually can suggest we're topping when at
extremes. We have several indicators at extremes. Yet, in the end, what moves
this market higher is a willing buyer and a willing seller. If the supply of
buyers continues to outstrip the supply of sellers, then despite the hard
evidence, we're going higher. But the only common sense thing for traders and
investors to do is to bet with the probability. Right now, the odds favor the
bears. That's all that can be said here. But given that QE2 is right around the
corner, given that the mid-term elections are right around the corner, and
given that Ben Bernanke has made it painfully obvious that the Federal Reserve
will do everything in its power to backstop the equities market, anything is
possible. If Bernanke wants it, we can rally 100 straight days from here with
every single indicator in the market hitting extremes. One more thing: These were
just a selection of some of the indicators suggesting that we're at extreme
levels. Good luck! Disclosure: Net long Apple with a fully hedged
call-spread. Heavy puts on the QQQQ.Disclaimer: The
information contained in this blog is not to be taken as either an investment
or trading recommendation, and serious traders or investors should consult with
their own professional financial advisors before acting on any thoughts
expressed in this publication. This blog is for intellectual and educational
purposes only.
Stock Market Thrill Ride: Dave's Daily - ‘You could take any image put up above here and whatever the image message conveys do the opposite the next day. Let's see, down 165, up 129 and it isn't any wonder retail is in its 23rd week of equity mutual fund redemptions. I don't want to sound unhappy since we're overwhelmingly long markets but trading against this machine-driven affair becomes more difficult with each day. Basically, everything reversed from yesterday and we might just end this tale there. Materials, industrials, energy and airlines led markets higher. Commodities did an about face rising as the dollar fell which accelerated upon release of the Fed Beige Book showing slow growth. Who knew?! (It's that "win-win" stuff again.) A consequence of low interest rates is companies like EBay and IBM are or have sold bonds at low interest rates to buy back their own stock. This is just financial engineering versus innovation and growth one of the things wrong with ultra low interest rates. And, by the way, the Fed did a small POMO operation today just to let us know they're around. Volume was lighter on the reversal higher which has been the case forever it seems. Breadth was positive…’
National
/ World
Feds press mortgage lenders to
fix documents (Washington Post)
[ Fix documents? In matters
involving far more serious crimes of far more significance longer term to the
nation, I’d be content with mere adherence to clear law applied to the
documented facts, no matter where and to whom the crimes lead … see infra… ] White House says Obama will not
sign foreclosure bill [
Oooooh, whoops … Sounds like a plan!]
Consumer advocates and state officials argue legislation would make it
difficult for homeowners to challenge documents prepared in other states. [When talking about the pervasively corrupt
american legal / judicial system, you’re truly talking about tips of the
iceberg! Judges rule without title,
lenders can't foreclose (Washington Post) [ Rules of law? I
didn’t think they cared. That’s certainly the direct experience I’ve had with
the pervasively corrupt american legal / judicial system (along with the other
two branches of the u.s. government and defact bankrupt america generally).
Court decisions could call into doubt the ownership of mortgages, raising
urgent challenges for both the real estate market, wider financial system. Connecticut, California join
probe of Ally (Washington Post)
[I’d be much more impressed if they initiated a probe of more readily
discernible criminal offenses in violation of the RICO Act http://albertpeia.com Frauds/Liars
(sic-lawyers)Covering Up for Other Frauds/Liars (sic-lawyers). In Productive
Societies as China, Japan, etc., Fraudulent Liars (sic-lawyers) and the
Fraudulent u.s. System They're a Part of Are Unheard Of/Non-existent. List of
Files Regarding Filed Attorney Grievance Against Fraud coan et als Or Here For A Clearer View Of
Filed Grievance Complaint, Response,
Exhibits, and Related RICO Filings Note the Committee of
Frauds/Liars (sic-lawyers). Included are DOJ Rep., State Court Rep., State
Atty. General Office Rep., and even a Vegetable Garden yale law prof who
probably never practiced law in his life. How Pathetic! http://albertpeia.com/fbiofficela91310 ] Justice: FBI improperly opened
probes (Washington
Post) [ I just hope
they’re as zealous (in probing readily discernible crime) with regard to my
RICO matters and the corruption in the (judicial / legal) process since, in the
final analysis, it will have been the corruption within that will have brought
the nation down irrevocably and totally.
October 15, 2010 (*see infra)
Steven M. Martinez, Assistant Director In Charge
Federal Bureau of Investigation, USDOJ
11000 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 1700
Los Angeles, CA 90024
Dear Sir:
I enclose herewith 3
copies of the within DVD rom autorun disk (which will open in your computer’s
browser) as per your office’s request as made this day (the disk and contents
have been scanned by Avast, McAfee, and Norton which I’ve installed on my
computer to prevent viral attacks / infection and are without threat). I also
include 1 copy of the DVD as filed with the subject court as referenced therein
(which files are also included on the aforesaid 3 disks in a separate folder
named ‘112208opocoan’). The (civil) RICO action (as you’re aware, the RICO Act
is a criminal statute which provides a civil remedy, including treble damages
and attorney fees, as an incentive for private prosecution of said claims
probably owing to the fact that the USDOJ seems somewhat overwhelmed and in
need of such assistance given the seriousness and prevalence of said violations
of law which have a corrupting influence on the process, and which corruption
is pervasive). A grievance complaint against Coan was also filed concurrently
with the subject action and held in abeyance pending resolution of the action
which was illegally dismissed without any supporting law and in contravention
of the Order of The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge, USDC, District
Connecticut. The files below the horizontal rule are the referenced documents
as filed. (Owing to the damage to the financial interests of both the U.S. and
the District of Congresswoman Roybal-Allard, viz., Los Angeles, the
Qui Tam provisions of the Federal
False Claims Act probably would apply and I would absent resolution seek to
refer the within to a firm with expertise in that area of the law with which I
am not familiar).
The document in 5 pages under penalty of
perjury I was asked to forward to the FBI office in New Haven is probably the
best and most concise summary of the case
RICO Summary to FBI Under Penalty
of Perjury at Their Request (5 pages) [
ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf ].
The correspondence I
received from the Congresswoman by way of email attachment (apparent but
typical problem with my mail) along with my response thereto is included on the
3 disks as fbicorrespondencereyes.htm . With regard to the
calls to the FBI’s LA and New Haven, CT offices: There was one call to the LA
office and I was referred to the Long Beach, CA office where I personally met
with FBI Agent Jeff Hayes to whom I gave probative evidentiary documents of the
money laundering which he confirmed as indicative of same (he was transferred
from said office within approximately a month of said meeting and his location
was not disclosed to me upon inquiry). The matter was assigned to FBI Agent Ron
Barndollar and we remained in touch for in excess of a decade until he abruptly
retired (our last conversation prior to his retirement related to the case and
parenthetically, Rudy Giuliani whose father I stated had been an enforcer for
the mob to which he registered disbelief and requested I prove it, which I did
– he served 12 years in prison, aggravated assault/manslaughter? – and no,
there is no Chinese wall of separation – Andrew Maloney’s the one that
prosecuted gotti).
In contradistinction
to the statement in said correspondence, there is a plethora of information
including evidence supporting the claims set forth in the RICO VERIFIED COMPLAINT (see infra). Such includes and as set
forth in the case, inter alia,
There is applicable insurance / surety coverage and neither LA, nor
creditors, nor I should continue to have been damaged by this brazened corrupt
and illegal scenario, which should be resolved in accordance with the
meaningful rules of law apposite thereto.
Sincerely,
Albert L. Peia
611 E. 5th Street, #404
Los Angeles, CA 90013
(213) 219-**** (cell phone)
(213) 622-3745 (listed land line but there are unresolved problems with
the line, computer connection may be the reason but I hesitate to chance
greater non-performance / worsening by their ‘fix’ so cell phone best for
contact).
----------
*The foregoing and as
indicated therein was previously send 9-14-10 but delivery confirmation was
flawed as set forth below and my inquiries to the u.s. postal service rebuffed
(I believe tampered with inasmuch as your office could not locate same). This
cover letter (9-13-10) is on the 3 disks with navigable hyperlinks to the
subject files for ease of reference, including the files in the RICO action as
indicated. (10-15-10) I spoke with Rose, FBI, ADIC Secretary, who indicates
once again that your office has not received the aforesaid and which can
reasonably be presumed to have been tampered with, and hence, a violation of
the federal statute concerning same.
-----
Label/Receipt Number:
0310 1230 0000 0862 8183
Expected Delivery
Date: September 15, 2010
Class: Priority Mail®
Service(s): Delivery
Confirmation™
Status: Delivered
Your item was
delivered at 10:14 am on September 15, 2010 in LOS ANGELES, CA 90024.
Track and
Confirm
Enter Label/Receipt Number.
Enter Label / Receipt
Number.
Detailed
Results:
Bullet Delivered, September 15, 2010, 10:14 am, LOS
ANGELES, CA 90024
Bullet Arrival at Post Office, September 15, 2010, 4:12
am, LOS ANGELES, CA 90024
Bullet Processed through Sort Facility, September 14,
2010, 8:29 pm, LOS ANGELES, CA 90052
Bullet Acceptance, September 14, 2010, 4:04 pm, LOS
ANGELES, CA 90017
----
Sent Postage Prepaid: United States Mail - VIA Priority
Mail, Delivery Confirmation and VIA Certified Mail this ___ day of October,
2010.
Signed:
___________________________________
Albert L. Peia
-------------
Label/Receipt Number: 7009 2250
0002 1116 5915
Expected Delivery Date: October 6, 2010
Class: Priority Mail®
Service(s): Certified Mail™
Status: Delivered
Your item was delivered at 11:42 am on October 06, 2010 in LOS ANGELES, CA
90024.
Detailed Results:
Delivered,
October 06, 2010, 11:42 am, LOS ANGELES, CA 90024
Arrival
at Unit, October 06, 2010, 4:15 am, LOS ANGELES, CA 90024
Acceptance,
October 05, 2010, 11:12 am, LOS ANGELES, CA 90017
---------------------------
Label/Receipt Number: 0309 3220
0000 4028 9039
Expected Delivery Date: October 6, 2010
Class: Priority Mail®
Service(s): Delivery Confirmation™
Status: Delivered
Your item was delivered at 9:03 am on October 06, 2010 in LOS ANGELES, CA
90024.
Detailed Results:
Delivered,
October 06, 2010, 9:03 am, LOS ANGELES, CA 90024
Arrival
at Post Office, October 06, 2010, 6:10 am, LOS ANGELES, CA 90024
Acceptance,
October 05, 2010, 11:11 am, LOS ANGELES, CA 90017
-------
Sent VIA UPS Courier this 15th day of October, 2010.
Signed: Albert L. Peia
------------
Gerald Celente: “The selloff of
America” Financial
institutions on Wall Street are preparing to pay a shocking record $144 billion
dollars in compensation & benefits. This amid spiraling foreclosures and an
economic crisis that has devastated Americans, leaving many out in the street.
Gerald Celente of the Trends Research Institute says that the gap between rich
and poor in the US will continue to get larger because of the bank bailout that
Washington shelled out in 2008.
Look
Closer - It's a Giant House of Cards , On
Tuesday October 19, 2010, 7:14 pm Call
me a hopeless 'free market' romantic, but I believe that the natural forces of
supply and demand (and cause and effect) will eventually trump the Federal
Reserve's underhanded, yet obvious, efforts to pump up the market. If you are
curious to know how the Fed massages the stock (NYSEArca: VTI - News) and commodity markets (NYSEArca: DBC - News) in an effort to keep the economy
from collapsing, keep reading. But before we get there, let's take a look at a
problem that is as obvious as it is ignored.
Bad News is Good News and Good News is Good News If you've
ever been asked: 'Honey, does this skirt look too tight,' you know there's only
one response that won't have negative consequences. Right now, the market - at
least according to Wall Street and the media - is in a win-win position. Any
commentary to the contrary is met with disdain. Good news means the economy is
improving. Bad news means more quantitative easing is on the way. Any news is
good news. But what about the foreclosure debacle or mortgage bust 2.0? It
seems like investors have not even begun to price in the eventual
ramifications. Without going into too much detail, courtesy of faulty
foreclosure procedures, many mortgage payers may have the legal right to walk
away from their debt. Banks (NYSEArca: KBE - News) and other financial institutions
(NYSEArca: XLF - News) on the other hand have no
recourse of getting their money back. The plot for the financial sector
continues to thicken ... and continues to be ignored.
Obvious and Ignored Simultaneously, Bloomberg featured the
following two headlines on Monday: 'Citigroup profits exceeds estimates on
decline in provision for bad loans' 'Mortgage buybacks may cost lenders $120
billion, JPMorgan says' In case the irony of the headlines isn't obvious, here
it is again: Citigroup rallied over 5% because profit increased due to a
reduction of bad loan provisions, while a fellow banking giant sees a $120
billion future liability caused by bad loans. Is this a problem that can be
hidden via another round of accounting rule changes? As I look at the
performance of stocks, I wonder how long it will take for investors to realize
the magnitude of the problem. Stocks don't care, which means investors don't
care - at least not yet. Overall, the market reminds me a lot of April 2010.
For a period of weeks, the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) and Dow (DJI: ^DJI) kept
inching higher, making incremental new recovery highs and thereby pushing
sentiment readings to an extreme. It seemed like the rally would never end, but
it did. On April 16, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter took note of this
unhealthy behavior and stated that: 'The message conveyed by the composite
bullishness is unmistakable bearish.' Note the reason for investors'
bullishness in April and compare it to today. The newsletter continued: 'Most
bulls have no clue why they are bullish except for the fact that they feel the
need to play the momentum game. It doesn't take an economist to see how fragile
the economy really is.' Have things improved since April? Let's see;
unemployment has gone up, GDP has been revised down, banks are struggling, real
estate (NYSEArca: IYR - News) continues to slide, Europe has
been patched although hit with more downgrades and the foreclosure landslide
has hit the fan. Things have gotten worse, yet stocks have come back to revisit
the April highs. How come? There's an explanation with an 89% accuracy ratio;
more in a moment. Crushed by an Elephant You can't write an
article right now without commenting on Apples earnings. In case you haven't
heard, they were outstanding. Apple has a variety of great products. After
countless crashes, I switched from a PC to Mac and haven't regretted the move.
I'm the proud owner of the 'iTriple' (iPod, iPad and iPhone) and have no
complaints. But investors are a fickle and insatiable bunch. No matter how good
things are, they want better. How much better can it get for Apple? More iPhone
sales through Verizon, is huge. Christmas season is big, but hasn't that
already been priced in? The entire technology sector (NYSEArca: XLK - News) collapsed in 2000. Busts are
always a surprise and they always occur at the top. AAPL (NasdaqGS: AAPL - News) accounts for 20.93% of the Nasdaq
(Nasdaq: ^IXIC), as much as Google, Qualcomm, Microsoft, Oracle, Amazon and
Cisco combined. As Apple goes, so goes the Nasdaq. In Monday's after hours
trading, Apple is down over 5%.
More than a 'Rotten Apple' Apple is not the only liability to
the market. Complacency is another. The VIX (Chicago Options: ^VIX) is trading
at the lowest level since April and small option trades are about as hopeful as
they were in April. Small option traders are one of the purest real-money
sentiment gauges as they aren't clouded by institutional hedging cross
currents.
Rising Prices, How and Why? Since the Fed has been unable to
create consumer inflation (why else would we need QE2?) it has shifted its
focus to another type of inflation - asset inflation. As the administrations
attempts to propel the economy have failed, it realizes that the stock markets
role as a nation's mood barometer is crucial to the economy's survival. A
declining stock market would surely deliver a depression.
Monetizing Debt Monetizing debt was the buzzword in early
2009, when the Federal Reserve agreed to buy $1.2 trillion of government and
government agency debt (such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac). By so doing, the
Federal Reserve exchanged crisp new dollar bills against toxic debt. This also
meant that the U.S. dollar was not only backed by U.S. Treasuries, it was also
backed by toxic mortgages. Quite a departure from the gold (NYSEArca: GLD - News) standard. The chart below shows
the soaring balance sheet of the Federal Reserve. [chart]
In POMO They Trust Who are 'they?' POMO is the Federal Reserve's Permanent Market
Operations. Via POMO, the Fed buys back T-Bonds from banks and financial
institutions. 'They' are banks. Banks sell the T-Bonds at a profit and invest
the additional funds in stocks and commodities. A rising stock market - even if
devoid of any fundament reason - is what the government wants. It doesn't
matter that the same banks that started the financial wreckage now make money
with the clean up. The chart below illustrates this process. Entire books have
been written to explain the unethical role of the Federal Reserve. The November
issue of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter explains the process concisely and
understandably in a few pages. [chart]
POMO vs. Free Market As mentioned above, I am a free stock
market romantic and believe that normal market forces will drag the market down
as swiftly as it's come up. But, POMO should not be underestimated. It's
success rate in lifting the market is in some instances higher than 80% and the
Fed is holding a lot of POMO purchases before the November 2nd elections,
probably in an attempt to keep prices up (a detailed analysis of the POMO
effects on the S&P and schedule of future POMO purchases is available in
the November ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter). Whether you are bullish, bearish
or confused, the coming days/weeks seem to be pivotal in determining whether
POMO will drive prices up, or market forces will push prices down. The ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter includes a forecast for the days, week,
and month ahead, along with safety and target levels that help navigate the
market and stay on the right side of the trade.
Will Floating QE2
Sink the Economy? McMorris In 2007, savers in America actually were
"dis-saving" or saving at negative rates of about -2%, according to
the Federal Reserve. But now that Americans
understand the need to cut debt, savings rates have rebounded correspondingly
to over 6%. Question: If we view the 8% swing as a one-time step down to a new
baseline, could we grow GDP at a 3-4% desired rate from that baseline and
maintain a 6% savings rate? My answer? No! The 8% change in savings behaviour
has a significant impact on aggregate consumption. What is saved is not spent.
With 70% of the American GDP dependent on Consumption, such a significant
impact will necessarily have a negative impact to GDP.To better understand this
secular (generational) change in behaviour, here is the formula for GDP:
GDP
= Consumption (Private) + Investment + Govt Spending + Net Trade (where imports
are negative)
For GDP to grow, one or all of those elements must grow. Consumption is said to
have a 70% weighting ($10.3T of $14.6T in Q1 2010),
so its growth is most important (at an 8% delta in consumption, the impact to
GDP is 5.6%). Exports are negative, and no matter how much we depreciate the
dollar, X will probably not turn positive, so no help there. Government
spending subtracts from Consumption and Investment in reality, since it is not
productive. So, though it has been 15% of the equation historically, it has
moved toward 25% as Consumption has declined. Government Spending must be
reduced for a healthy economy, so no growth there, but contraction. Investment
does not include Savings, Bond or Share Purchases, so what has been lost in
Consumption to Savings is lost to GDP growth. So, while the step function
towards savings brought GDP down to 1%, what will happen to move it back up,
and therefore allow profits to continue to expand and eventually for businesses
to re-employ? Got me. We are in a classic "liquidity trap", just like
Japan. I think our population is inherently more biased to consumption, so I
don't think we stay trapped for as long. But it won't be easy to get out. By
component: Consumption has been impacted by both unemployment increases and
savings increases. It may not continue to shrink, but it won't grow much either
(therefore the PIMCO-inspired label "New Normal"). We do have the
benefit in this country of an annual population increase of around 1%. That
helps as compared to Japan which has no immigration. Considering the consumer
commitment to debt reduction and static unemployment, I think another 2% of
growth, on top of population, is probably all that can be asked for. So, 3% x
.70 weighting = 2.1% contribution. But Savings will continue to subtract from
GDP (since it reduces Consumption). Savings does not turn into investment until
businesses conduct capital expansion projects, and replacement does not count.
For the same reason, equity ownership of businesses does not count either as it
is mostly a matter of trading existing shares. An IPO or secondary offeirng
would contribute to GDP if the proceeds were used for capital purchases. I
don't think govt financed "Infrastructure Projects" count either, as
they are mostly replacement or repair of existing public capital (roads and
sewers). Businesses sitting on big piles of cash detracts from GDP as the money
is not Invested in the GDP sense. 1% contribution, best case? Government
spending continues to contract (especially state and local). No help here for
GDP growth and instead it is likely to subtract from GDP over the coming years
by 2-3% as pension and other government benefit programs undergo a squeeze. The
real estate tax base is not coming back anytime soon and so spending must also
be contracted. Net Exports may become less negative with a dollar devaluation
policy. But the impact will be small. Most other exporting economies are
depreciating their currencies in kind so as to not lose competitive advantage.
The only beneficiary are commodities and precious metals. Maybe we go from -2%
to -1%. No real help. Bottom line: where do we get GDP growth? I show (2.1 + 1
- 2 - 1) = 0.1%. This is the a normal that is different than in the past and a
wise investor will consider if this is the economic environment that will lift
the value of equity markets. Author's Disclosure: No positions
in stock discussed in this article
Homebuilders Remain Pessimistic
Nicholas Perna: Downside Risks
Are Greatest in Coming Year
National / World
Cartels
beef up presence in U.S. (Washington Post) [ I strongly recommend the
entertaining, albeit exaggerated for shock effects, films by the talented
director Robert Rodriguez, ‘Machete’ and ‘Once Upon a Time in Mexico’. The
important point in the films is the manipulation and interwoven money
connections, pieces of the action, bribes, etc. (see infra, RICO case, 10-15-10
letter to the FBI , ( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
). While I
assume he’s of Mexican-American descent, and only slightly biased as a
consequence, realize that a real life american story, names, etc., wouldn’t get
made / distributed. Those Cartels referenced in this article wouldn’t be here
without inside american help, very, very high up and quite officially
unofficial. ] When a major Mexican drug cartel opened a branch office in San
Diego, U.S. authorities tapped into their cellphones -- then listened, watched
and waited.
The
ugly truth about the economy (Washington Post) [ Well, Mr. Sloan is quite
right to be talking about the ugly truth about the economy; except, it’s far
uglier than even he dares to imagine or put down in writing, particularly for
defacto bankrupt, pervasively corrupt america … Economists Herald New Great Depression
The world is currently experiencing the
modern day equivalent of the Great Depression, according to a prominent
economist who has added his voice to scores of others now forecasting ongoing
economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.) , and my position and that
of demographer Dent (This
is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression.
The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market.
This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes
with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and
sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato
scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise,
will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are
criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. Krugman: It's All Downhill From
Here Cullen Roche Love him or hate him
Paul Krugman has been awfully right with regards to the macro picture in the
last few years. He’s one of the rare economists who had the foresight to see
the housing bubble and the likelihood of economic downturn that would result
from it. Krugman recently caused a stir when he said the US economy was headed
for the third depression. He isn’t back down from that outlook:
I’ve had a couple of conversations
lately with people who follow politics and public affairs, but aren’t that
close to the economic discussion — and I’ve discovered that there are two
comforting delusions still out there.
Delusion #1 is that we’re on the road
to recovery, just more slowly than we’d like; to be fair, the White House keeps
saying this.
But it’s not at all true. GDP is
growing below potential; employment, even if you focus just on private
employment, is growing more slowly than the working-age population. If you ask
how long it will take us to return to, say, 5 percent unemployment on the
current track, the answer is forever.
Delusion #2 is the belief that the
stimulus may yet do the trick, because there are still substantial funds
unspent. I tried to deal with this last year.
The level of GDP depends not on total funds spent, but on the rate at which
funds are being spent, which has already peaked; GDP growth on the rate of
change in the rate at which funds are being spent, which peaked last year. It’s
all downhill from here.
Harry
Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012). ]
Feds
press mortgage lenders to fix documents (Washington Post) [
Fix documents? In matters involving far more serious crimes of far more
significance longer term to the nation, I’d be content with mere adherence to
clear law applied to the documented facts, no matter where and to whom the
crimes lead … see infra… ] White
House says Obama will not sign foreclosure bill [ Oooooh, whoops … Sounds like a plan!] Consumer advocates and state officials argue legislation would
make it difficult for homeowners to challenge documents prepared in other
states. [When talking about the
pervasively corrupt american legal / judicial system, you’re truly talking
about tips of the iceberg! Judges
rule without title, lenders can't foreclose (Washington Post) [
Rules of law? I didn’t think they cared. That’s certainly the direct experience
I’ve had with the pervasively corrupt american legal / judicial system (along
with the other two branches of the u.s. government and defact bankrupt america
generally). Court decisions could call into doubt the ownership of mortgages,
raising urgent challenges for both the real estate market, wider financial
system. Connecticut,
California join probe of Ally (Washington Post) [I’d be much more impressed if they initiated a probe of more
readily discernible criminal offenses in violation of the RICO Act http://albertpeia.com Frauds/Liars
(sic-lawyers)Covering Up for Other Frauds/Liars (sic-lawyers). In Productive
Societies as China, Japan, etc., Fraudulent Liars (sic-lawyers) and the
Fraudulent u.s. System They're a Part of Are Unheard Of/Non-existent. List of
Files Regarding Filed Attorney Grievance Against Fraud coan et als Or Here For A Clearer View Of
Filed
Grievance Complaint, Response, Exhibits, and Related RICO Filings Note the Committee of
Frauds/Liars (sic-lawyers). Included are DOJ Rep., State Court Rep., State
Atty. General Office Rep., and even a Vegetable Garden yale law prof who
probably never practiced law in his life. How Pathetic! http://albertpeia.com/fbiofficela91310
] Justice:
FBI improperly opened probes
(Washington Post) [ I just hope
they’re as zealous (in probing readily discernible crime) with regard to my
RICO matters and the corruption in the (judicial / legal) process since, in the
final analysis, it will have been the corruption within that will have brought
the nation down irrevocably and totally.
October 15, 2010 (*see infra)
Steven M. Martinez,
Assistant Director In Charge
Federal Bureau of Investigation, USDOJ
11000 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 1700
Los Angeles, CA 90024
Dear Sir:
I enclose herewith 3
copies of the within DVD rom autorun disk (which will open in your computer’s
browser) as per your office’s request as made this day (the disk and contents
have been scanned by Avast, McAfee, and Norton which I’ve installed on my
computer to prevent viral attacks / infection and are without threat). I also
include 1 copy of the DVD as filed with the subject court as referenced therein
(which files are also included on the aforesaid 3 disks in a separate folder
named ‘112208opocoan’). The (civil) RICO action (as you’re aware, the RICO Act
is a criminal statute which provides a civil remedy, including treble damages
and attorney fees, as an incentive for private prosecution of said claims
probably owing to the fact that the USDOJ seems somewhat overwhelmed and in
need of such assistance given the seriousness and prevalence of said violations
of law which have a corrupting influence on the process, and which corruption
is pervasive). A grievance complaint against Coan was also filed concurrently
with the subject action and held in abeyance pending resolution of the action
which was illegally dismissed without any supporting law and in contravention
of the Order of The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge, USDC, District
Connecticut. The files below the horizontal rule are the referenced documents
as filed. (Owing to the damage to the financial interests of both the U.S. and
the District of Congresswoman Roybal-Allard, viz., Los Angeles, the
Qui Tam provisions of the Federal
False Claims Act probably would apply and I would absent resolution seek to
refer the within to a firm with expertise in that area of the law with which I
am not familiar).
The document in 5 pages under penalty of
perjury I was asked to forward to the FBI office in New Haven is probably the
best and most concise summary of the case
RICO Summary
to FBI Under Penalty of Perjury at Their Request (5 pages) [
ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf ].
The correspondence I
received from the Congresswoman by way of email attachment (apparent but
typical problem with my mail) along with my response thereto is included on the
3 disks as fbicorrespondencereyes.htm .
With regard to the calls to the FBI’s LA and New Haven, CT offices:
There was one call to the LA office and I was referred to the Long Beach, CA
office where I personally met with FBI Agent Jeff Hayes to whom I gave
probative evidentiary documents of the money laundering which he confirmed as
indicative of same (he was transferred from said office within approximately a
month of said meeting and his location was not disclosed to me upon inquiry).
The matter was assigned to FBI Agent Ron Barndollar and we remained in touch
for in excess of a decade until he abruptly retired (our last conversation
prior to his retirement related to the case and parenthetically, Rudy Giuliani
whose father I stated had been an enforcer for the mob to which he registered
disbelief and requested I prove it, which I did – he served 12 years in prison,
aggravated assault/manslaughter? – and no, there is no Chinese wall of
separation – Andrew Maloney’s the one that prosecuted gotti).
In contradistinction
to the statement in said correspondence, there is a plethora of information
including evidence supporting the claims set forth in the RICO
VERIFIED COMPLAINT
(see infra). Such includes and as set forth in the case, inter alia,
There is applicable insurance / surety coverage and neither LA, nor
creditors, nor I should continue to have been damaged by this brazened corrupt
and illegal scenario, which should be resolved in accordance with the
meaningful rules of law apposite thereto.
Sincerely,
Albert L. Peia
611 E. 5th Street, #404
Los Angeles, CA 90013
(213) 219-**** (cell phone)
(213) 622-3745 (listed land line but there are unresolved problems with
the line, computer connection may be the reason but I hesitate to chance
greater non-performance / worsening by their ‘fix’ so cell phone best for
contact).
----------
*The foregoing and as
indicated therein was previously send 9-14-10 but delivery confirmation was
flawed as set forth below and my inquiries to the u.s. postal service rebuffed
(I believe tampered with inasmuch as your office could not locate same). This
cover letter (9-13-10) is on the 3 disks with navigable hyperlinks to the
subject files for ease of reference, including the files in the RICO action as
indicated. (10-15-10) I spoke with Rose, FBI, ADIC Secretary, who indicates
once again that your office has not received the aforesaid and which can
reasonably be presumed to have been tampered with, and hence, a violation of
the federal statute concerning same.
-----
Label/Receipt Number:
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Expected Delivery
Date: September 15, 2010
Class: Priority Mail®
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Confirmation™
Status: Delivered
Your item was
delivered at 10:14 am on September 15, 2010 in LOS ANGELES, CA 90024.
Track and
Confirm
Enter Label/Receipt Number.
Enter Label / Receipt
Number.
Detailed
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Bullet Delivered, September 15, 2010, 10:14 am, LOS
ANGELES, CA 90024
Bullet Arrival at Post Office, September 15, 2010,
4:12 am, LOS ANGELES, CA 90024
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2010, 8:29 pm, LOS ANGELES, CA 90052
Bullet Acceptance, September 14, 2010, 4:04 pm, LOS
ANGELES, CA 90017
----
Sent Postage Prepaid: United States Mail - VIA Priority
Mail, Delivery Confirmation and VIA Certified Mail this ___ day of October,
2010.
Signed: ___________________________________
Albert L. Peia
-------------
Label/Receipt
Number: 7009 2250 0002 1116 5915
Expected Delivery Date: October 6, 2010
Class: Priority Mail®
Service(s): Certified Mail™
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Your item was delivered at 11:42 am on October 06, 2010 in LOS ANGELES, CA
90024.
Detailed Results:
|
|
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Delivered, October 06, 2010, 11:42 am, LOS ANGELES, CA
90024 |
|
Arrival at Unit, October 06, 2010, 4:15 am, LOS
ANGELES, CA 90024 |
|
Acceptance, October 05, 2010, 11:12 am, LOS ANGELES, CA
90017 |
---------------------------
Label/Receipt
Number: 0309 3220 0000 4028 9039
Expected Delivery Date: October 6, 2010
Class: Priority Mail®
Service(s): Delivery Confirmation™
Status: Delivered
Your item was delivered at 9:03 am on October 06, 2010 in LOS ANGELES, CA
90024.
Detailed Results:
|
|
|
Delivered, October 06, 2010, 9:03 am, LOS ANGELES, CA
90024 |
|
Arrival at Post Office, October 06, 2010, 6:10 am, LOS
ANGELES, CA 90024 |
|
Acceptance, October 05, 2010, 11:11 am, LOS ANGELES, CA
90017 |
-------
Sent VIA UPS Courier this 15th day of October, 2010.
Signed: Albert L. Peia
------------
REMINDER: There's
Been A Huge Global Market Boom, And There Is Plenty Of Room To Fall , On Monday October 18, 2010, 5:17 pm EDT ‘We discussed this
this morning, but in light of the
mediocre Apple and IBM earnings it's worth revisiting this. The
markets have been on an epic run all around the world, with all kinds of
"risk" assets from stocks, to commodities, to emerging market bonds
soaring towards nosebleed heights. And at least for the moment, it seems the
air is about to let out as stocks are tanking after hours. Bear in mind too
that in the conventional sense, both IBM and Apple reported "good"
earnings, but with the selloff in full effect, investors will start to ask:
what other "good" news is priced in? The election? QE? Look out
below.’
S&P 500 index futures dip
after Apple, IBM (Reuters) - 1 hour ago Reuters - S&P 500 index futures slipped
lower on Monday after quarterly results from Apple Inc and IBM . NEW YORK (Reuters) – S&P 500 index
futures slipped lower on Monday after quarterly results from Apple Inc (AAPL.O)
and IBM (IBM.N). S&P 500 futures dipped 3.6 points, Dow Jones industrial
average futures fell 17 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures shed 17 points. Apple
shares were halted in extended trade and IBM shares fell 3.6 percent to $137.70. [ And
don’t forget, that includes the ongoing currency manipulation / translation to
inflate earnings per share (and artificially lower p/e multiples).]
Why There Is Currently a Sizeable
Air Pocket Beneath Risk Assets
Roche / Pragmatic Capitalism ’…Currently, I view the market as excessively
risky from the long side (which is why I am net short for
the first time since before the flash crash earlier this year). Aside from
several exogenous risks (the foreclosure mess, a strong Euro sparking sovereign
debt fears in Europe, currency war, etc) there is also the risk that all three
of the themes above disappoint investors in the coming weeks as a massive “sell
the news event unfolds” in the final weeks of October and in early November. On
a slightly different note – I ran some numbers over the weekend and pulled up a
few factoids that readers might find interesting with regards to the indicator
I use called “quantified disequilibrium”. As I’ve previously mentioned, this
program quantifies what I call the disequilibrium in the market – it quantifies
hundreds of inputs to output a real-time measurable risk level. Using this
algorithm without leverage in a long/short 100% equity strategy has generated a
25.67% annualized return since inception (January 2006) with a Sharpe ratio of
2.29 and a max monthly drawdown of -5.22% in one of the most challenging market
environments ever. The risk component
has only been at current levels (or higher) twice in the last 5 years. The first instance was September 24th, 2007 at S&P
1526. Just shy of the all-time high and prior to a multi-month decline of
almost 20%. The second instance was January 5th, 2009 at S&P 890. We had
rallied 11% off the October 2008 lows and we all know what happened next. The market
took a nose dive down to the March 2009 lows for an epic two month collapse of
25%…’
And Now, Here's The First 11
State Pensions Funds That Will Run Out Of Money Provided by The Business Insider, October, 18, 2010:Here's a
shocker: The most immediate state pension crises aren't in New York or
California. They're in Middle America.When it comes to state pensions in the
most trouble, do places like New Hampshire come to mind? Probably not, unless you
live there, and maybe not even then. After all, it makes sense that the
biggest, most populous members of the union, where budget follies are fairly
common, would be facing the most urgently needed fixes. The truth is
considerably different. The Granite State claims the No. 11 slot, and it's not
the only unexpected name facing pension woes. Hawaii, Kansas and others made
their way on to the list. Now, these pension plans aren't going to be
obliterated tomorrow -- New Hampshire, for instance, is estimated to see its
plan run out of money in 2022, so they've got 12 years to rectify the
situation. For some other states, the matter is more pressing, and no more so
than for the Land of Lincoln.Illinois is just 8 years away from exhausting its
pension fund and creating a yearly $14 billion hole, according to data from Joshua Ruah an associate
professor of finance at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern
University.That's a projected 32 percent of the state's revenue
going to fill a pension hole. Every year.Indiana, Louisiana, Oklahoma and
Colorado are among the next pension funds to fall. The rest of the union is
just around the corner.But wait. Just to make sure the list is not a complete
surprise, know that the New York City suburbs of Connecticut and New Jersey
made it on board. They have until 2019 to sort it out. And Now, 11 State
Pension Funds That May Run of Out Money
#1 Illinois
Year
pension fund runs out: 2018
Bill
in the following year: $13.6 billion
Share
of state revenue: 32%
#2
Connecticut
Year
pension fund runs out: 2019
Bill
in the following year: $4.9 billion
Share
of state revenue: 27%
#3
Indiana
Year
pension fund runs out: 2019
Bill
in the following year: $3.6 billion
Share
of state revenue: 17%
#4
New Jersey
Year
pension fund runs out: 2019
Bill
in the following year: $14.4 billion
Share
of state revenue: 34%
#5
Hawaii
Year
pension fund runs out: 2020
Bill
in the following year: $1.7 billion
Share
of state revenue: 24%
#6
Louisiana
Year
pension fund runs out: 2020
Bill
in the following year: $4.3 billion
Share
of state revenue: 27%
#7
Oklahoma
Year
pension fund runs out: 2020
Bill
in the following year: $3.7 billion
Share
of state revenue: 30%
#8
Colorado
Year
pension fund runs out: 2022
Bill
in the following year: $7.8 billion
Share
of state revenue: 54%
#9
Kansas
Year
pension fund runs out: 2022
Bill
in the following year: $2.5 billion
Share
of state revenue: 23%
#10
Kentucky
Year
pension fund runs out: 2022
Bill
in the following year: $5.3 billion
Share
of state revenue: 35%
#11
New Hampshire
Year
pension fund runs out: 2022
Bill
in the following year: $1.0 billion
Share of state revenue: 30%
Countrywide's Mozilo will settle
fraud claims (Washington Post)
[ This should be policy across the board, particularly on the criminal
prosecution side, for which long overdue fines and disgorgement will
substantially eat into the record deficits of defacto bankrupt america. This national decline, economic and
otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et
als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. ] The firm's former CEO will pay millions to settle allegations that he
misled investors.
77,000 Iraqis killed from 2004 to
August 2008, U.S. military says (Washington Post) [ And you can take that to the fraudulent american
bank … riiiiight! … Come on … americans lie about everything and certainly this
… A conservative estimate from AP
through only 2007: Study: 151,000 Iraqis died in conflict’s violence Surveyors
face danger to count casualties from 2003 to 2006 The
Associated Press - updated
1/9/2008 7:15:50 PM ET 2008-01-10T00:15:50 About 151,000 Iraqis died from violence in
the first three years after the United States invaded, concludes the best effort
yet to count deaths — one that still may not settle the fierce debate over the
war's true toll on civilians and others … americans are just lying war criminal
american scum. ]
In foreclosure process, speed equaled
money (Washington Post) [ Yeah … we all know how
effective bank speed (fraud) strategies have been … in losing money … equaled
money lost … the sorry story of a
defacto bankrupt nation, fraught with fraud and b*** s*** , in intractable
decline ]Banks seized millions of homes
through a mass production system in which firms were paid to move cases quickly
through the pipeline.
The Root of the Problem
The Inflation Trader [ I think it unfortunate that most fail to properly weight
in their analysis the irrevocable structural shift that has occurred in the
defacto bankrupt u.s. and which cannot be undone. The ‘powers that be’
literally gave up (sold out) the american store (ie., technology transfers for
money, protracted treasury depleting and geopolitically unwise wars,
perma-frauds on wall street without prosecution, pervasive corruption at all
levels including all three branches of the u.s. government, etc., covered
elsewhere on this site.) Then of course there’s the insurmountable debt and
interest thereon which is now eating into real (not fake / falsified ) GDP
along with other unserviceable promises exacerbating the magnitude of the
nations defacto insolvency. ] See infra.
Recovery
Concerns Resurface Mody
/ Bondsquawk ‘Stocks declined as increased jobless numbers and a widened trade
deficit spiked concerns about the recovery. Investor’s confidence in betting
that the Fed will take action increased after prices of wholesale goods rose at
a very sluggish rate in September. Treasuries continued to slide and yields
ended higher across the spectrum. Economic Data Initial jobless in the week ended Oct 9
increased by 13,000 to 462K after the claims filed for the previous week were
revised upwards by 4000. Continuous claims declined to the lowest level in a
year, now at 4399K. The trade deficit for August widened more than forecast to
$46.3 billion as cheaper import prices and increased demand for foreign autos
and capital equipment overshadowed the gains by exports. Exports gained 0.2%
compared to 2% in July, surpassed by a 2.1% increase in imports in August.
Goods and services imported grew by 2.4% and 0.5% respectively, and while
exports of goods remained flat, services exported gained 0.7%. The trade
deficit can be narrowed only when the U.S., whose economy is mainly service
oriented, starts meeting its own demands for goods and increases export of
services. In other reports, the wholesale price of goods excluding food and
energy showed a sluggish 0.1% growth for a second month as inflationary
pressure decreases. The Producer Price Index excluding food and energy prices
grew by merely 0.1% in September, reported the Labor Department. The Fed expressed
in its last meeting that is will aim its monetary policy at, among other
things, increasing inflation expectations. The economy seems to be in a lull,
where neither inflationary nor deflationary pressures are strong enough to
cause any change in its current state. Interest Rates
Treasuries continued to slide on increased supply, pushing yields higher across
the curve (click on chart to enlarge). Long termed Treasuries fell the
most as seen in the 10 bp increase In the yield on the 30-Yr, which ended at 3.92%.
The benchmark bond fell as its yield pushed 7 bp higher to 2.51%. The belly of
the curve rose as the 5-Yr ended 7 bp higher at 1.18%. The 2-Yr yield fell 2 bp
to .38% to push the front end of the curve slightly higher. (chart )
Inflation expectations, as indicated by the yield differential between the
10-Yr Treasury and an equal maturity inflation indexed bond (TIPS), widened 8
bp to 2.14%. (click on chart to enlarge) (chart )
Yields were mixed across the Atlantic. France’s benchmark 5-Y bond ended flat
at 1.65%. Germany’s 5-Yr bonds slipped slightly as its yield ended a basis
point higher at 1.43%. Yields were mixed among the peripherals nations. Yield
on Portugal’s benchmark bond tightened 10 bp to 4.65%. Ireland’s 5-Yr bond
yield gained and pushed its yield 21 bp lower at 4.91%. Greece bond ended its
rally as its yield gained 24 bp to 8.78%. Spain’s 5-Yr bond cut its losses from
Wednesday as its yield slipped 4 bp to 2.91%. Across The Capital
Markets Stocks slipped on poor economic data. The S&P retreated
0.45 to 1173.81. NASDAQ ended 0.3% lower at 2435.38. The VIX index gained
higher to 19.88. The DXY dollar index weakened further to 76.542. Euro advanced
against the dollar to 1.4084. The cable (GBP/USD) gained to 1.6011. Gold
continued to scale new heights as it ended at 1381.15.’
Why
I'm Concerned About a Near Term Pullback in Stock Prices Soos Global Capitalist [ The following is
coming from a market optimist who talks earnings but fails to account for
quality as Davis infra; that of itself means he’s not the brightest bulb on the
planet, but he at least recognizes the lack of rationality here which, by the
way, preceded the last several crashes. ] ‘John
Lipsky, the current First Deputy Managing Director of the IMF, taught me
something many years ago when we were colleagues at Salomon Brothers in a
conversation then about various countries in Europe that were part of the “Euro
Convergence” process. Regarding the extremely high marginal tax rates at that
time in some of the socialist economies, for example in Sweden where I believe
it was in the 80% range, I recall discussing the seeming disincentive for
people to work when only 20 cents on the ‘dollar’ would stay in their pocket
while the rest would go to the government. I suggested that such a situation
would likely lead to high levels of unemployment….to which I recall John adding
that not only could it lead to higher levels of unemployment currently, but
that the longer people stay unemployed the more unemployable they
become due to lost job skills, lack of training for new types of work and the
like - a potentially economically crippling process known as “hysteresis”. That
conversation parachuted back into my mind in recent days, partly due to the
recent awful Non-Farm Payroll data, and partly in reaction to the ongoing
stratospheric levels of Jobless Claims and related unemployment numbers. But
beyond that, it’s also partly attributable to some considerations I've had
about the overall market activity which has been largely euphoric of late based
on hopes for Fed QE2, lower interest rates, more economic growth, weaker USD
and higher commodity prices. Specifically, while I have been, and remain, optimistic
on equities for medium and longer horizon portfolios, largely driven by my view
of global economic growth in emerged and emerging countries around the world
especially in the context of infrastructure build up, I have become much
more cautious in putting additional cash to work, and in fact am concerned near
term about a meaningful pullback in stock prices. Why? For one,
increased global market risk and uncertainty. As I wrote last week in “Positioning for the Week Ahead: Navigating the Risks and
Opportunities in Choppy Market Waters”, the lack of a globally
integrated response to the quickly developing global ‘currency war’ presents
the markets with, if nothing else, a significant increase in risk…..risk of
unilateral action by countries in defense of their economies a la:
·
Japan’s intervention several weeks ago to
devalue the Yen and last week’s announcement of lower rates and of a ‘QE’ type
fund, and
·
Korea’s inaction this week by not hiking rates
despite inflationary signs thereby choosing to accept a bit of inflation rather
than fight it with higher rates which would likely strengthen their currency
and hurt exports, and
·
the US's Fed whose minutes from the September
meeting that we got a glimpse of this week clearly showed the Fed team standing
on the dock ready to christen the QE2 as it’s about to set sail.
Second,
my perception that markets have allowed corporate earnings to provide a
disguising shadow on the underlying economic weakness that prevails in the US.
With little in the way of new economic data this week, most market participants
have been rightfully focused on the earnings parade….and some parade it’s been.
From Alcoa (AA), to Intel (INTC), to CSX, the news both in the rearview mirror and
ahead through the windshield has been quite good. And that’s perhaps one of the
strongest supportive factoids for my still cautiously, patient optimism. But
when one considers the depth and breadth of the US economic slump, and when one
contemplates the risks of “hysteresis” despite the remarkable flexibility of
the US labor force, it doesn’t take long to aggressively question the soundness
of the logic that has driven current market valuations, the arguably flawed causal
relationship of QE>>lower interest rates>>more domestic economic
growth>> higher equity prices. Hysteresis could put a serious kibosh on
the economic growth link in that chain.
Third,
next week’s data calendar will probably not provide much news on the economic
front to alter the perception of just how deep of a hole the US economy is in.
We do get Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, which together is
unlikely to show much improvement especially when you have a look at where we
are now vs where we’re coming from:
(Source:
ChartFacts.com) click to enlarge (chart)
We’ll also get Housing Starts and Permits…and there too, look at the reality of
what “improvement” has to mean in order to make a dent in what is an awful
situation. (chart)
Compounding that, of course, has been this week’s leap-frogging of the
foreclosure fiasco to the front pages. Banks across the land have been freezing
foreclosure proceedings, cries are being heard from DC and beyond for full
blown investigations of banks that could result in large penalties, and one
likely result could be a protracted major headwind for any improvement in the
ailing housing industry. What now? In the context of open kimono, I’ve been adding
equity exposure for the past several months with a “buy on dip” tactical
approach, focusing on companies involved in global businesses with strong
balance sheets, good dividend payouts, aggressive expansions into Emerging
Markets countries, and in industries that are less likely to fall subject to
intense new regulatory regimes. The higher markets have gone, though, the
slower I’ve been to invest on any dips. And at these levels, I’m considering
not just a pause in buying, but possibly some profit-taking with the goal of
re-entering at lower levels. Bear in mind, this article is in no way meant to
be considered personalized investment advice, but rather a thought-provoking
note on issues that investors ought to consider in determining their own investment
decisions that are uniquely appropriate for their financial profiles and risk
tolerances. It’s meant to broaden the dialogue in terms of what should drive
investment decisions beyond a simple reflex reaction to QE, whether it will or
won’t happen, and in terms of including the broader landscape of US economic
travails in addition to the global currency and policy tensions. In sum,
despite my longer term optimism, current events have raised my
“concern-ometer”. To put it colloquially, perhaps next to “Hysteresis” in the
dictionary, a simplified, figurative definition could read: the needle that
popped the bubble. Look for updates as things evolve.
Disclaimer:
Soos Global Capital Advisors, LLC (“Soos Global”) is a New York state
registered investment adviser located in Harrison, New York. Soos Global may
only transact business in those states in which it is registered, or qualifies
for an exemption or exclusion from registration requirements. The publication
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For information pertaining to the registration status of Soos Global, please
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and fees is available from Soos Global upon written request. Soos Global does
not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness,
suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any
unaffiliated third party, whether linked to Soos Global's opinions or
incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility therefor. All such information
is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should
be guided accordingly. Past performance may not be indicative of future
results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that future
performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the
investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Soos
Global) made reference to directly or indirectly by Soos Global in its opinion,
or indirectly via a link to an unaffiliated third party web site, will be
profitable or equal the corresponding indicated performance level(s). Different
types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no
assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable
for a client or prospective client’s investment portfolio. Historical
performance results for investment indices and/or categories generally do not
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Soos Global), will be profitable or equal any historical performance level(s).
Disclosure: LONG: INTC, AA and various ETFs and stocks in
S&P, Europe, Asia and Latin America.’
Market
Outlook: Will This Party Continue? [ Here’s another weak sister who
recognizes something amiss; viz., market iinsanity / scam / fraud, etc., as
we’ve seen in prior manipulations preceding crashes. ] Ramsden ‘If the last
month or so in the market has been something of a party, we would like, for
good reason, the party to never end. If the last twelve months of the economy
has been something of a revival, we want that revival, soft as it may be, to
continue. The past week
has shown the collective’s desire most clearly. While the Fed’s facial
expressions have hinted at a willingness to keep the party going, the
market has read into these messages and celebrated without pause. While the
broader economy will manifest its disposition in upcoming reports, there are
early glimpses offered by quarterly corporate earnings, now trickling in with
intelligence from the trenches. The markets have taken in these reports, mixed
them with the remembered images of a smiling Fed, and decided that the
party continues. But the festivity seems based on hopes that are not
altogether wholesome, and such parties all too often don’t end on a high note.
That quantitative easing is on its own unlikely to provide a substantial
economic boost has been reported and analyzed at length, including
here, and the market probably recognizes the risk. No matter, more than in
anticipation of economic lift the market seems to be trading on dollar
devaluation, (also associated with QE2). We of course realize, but perhaps turn
a blind eye to the fact that the Fed is not acting in isolation, and that a
cheaper dollar necessarily must be cheap in relation to some other currency.
Few if any central banks seem nowadays happy to sacrifice theirs
for the benefit of ours, and a point will come when the declining dollar
will no
longer suffice to prop up stocks. When this occurs, we will likely become
more focused on fundamentals, and coming on the heels of a “Great Recession”
and two years of cost-cutting to the bone, such analysis should lead us to
revenues head-on. With this in mind, we can have a peak at what may lie ahead
for revenues and the economy, watching for signals that the early bellwethers
of quarterly reporting season have to offer. Let’s take, for example, JP Morgan
(JPM)
(see earnings call transcript here):
On a 15% revenue decline from a period that was to begin with not particularly
stellar, the company managed to somehow still increase earnings and still beat
analyst estimates. Cutting compensation helped, no doubt, but what helped even
more was an (arbitrary) reduction of loan loss reserves… Pause to consider: Is
it not a contradiction of perspectives when, on one hand, corporate revenues
for a diversified financial organization decline substantially, while on the
other hand, the company feels good enough about economic prospects to deem its
loan portfolio quality substantially improved? Does anyone see the irony? It’s
ironic, isn’t it? The broader market didn’t get it: Up strongly all day,
post-announcement, while JP Morgan shares themselves traded
down. Such bumping and grinding and disoriented stuttered-steps are bound
to occur in the wee hours, when the group gets all pointless and sloppy. When a
stock that is driving the market up concurrently moves in the opposite
direction, the party is beginning to get unruly. Disclosure: No positions.
Drudgereport: Bernanke:
Economy growing too slowly to reduce unemployment...
'Further
Action' With Too-Low Inflation...
Federal
deficit tops $1 trillion - again...
Consumer
Sentiment Falls...
Damage
From Mortgages Spreads...
BANK
OF AMERICA shares fall up to 6.5%...
China
to USA: We are not to blame for your problems...
Dollar
fall sparks stability warnings...
Currency
tensions persist...
Support for Afghanistan war at all-time low...
17
TROOPS KILLED IN PAST 3 DAYS...
BANK
OF AMERICA Downgraded by Bond Market...
Stock
Selloff Adds to Pressure on Banks...
Washington
Policy Makers Resist Calls for a Big Fix in Foreclosure Crisis...
Fuel
pipeline to Paris cut as protests escalate...
NEW
NORMAL: Long Recovery Looks Like a Recession (Depression) ...
Applications
for jobless benefits rise to 462,000...
'Higher-than-expected'...
September
home foreclosures top 100,000 for first time...
Inflation,
Trade Deficit Surge Higher...
Dollar
tanks as Bernanke speech looms...
Afghans
allege abuse at secret US jail...
13
troops killed in Afghanistan -- in two days...
Fed
Mulls Raising Inflation Expectations to Boost Economy...
Gold
Hits Another Record...
Pension
protests escalate in France...
Sarkozy
stands firm...
Strikes
shut Eiffel Tower...
Blankley:
The White House Bunker So Soon?
Comment on:
The O'Donnell-Coons debate and survival of the fittest
at 10/14/2010 10:07 PM EDT
O'Donnell,
evolved The O'Donnell-Coons debate and survival of the fittest (Washington
Post) [ Or might that be ‘sh******, or flittest, … says Stromberg: O'Donnell
is... wow … I second that emotion … Wow!
Test yourself to find out how much you know about Sarah Palin. Take the quiz
and after, check out The Washington Post's 'Five Myths about Palin.'
(Washington Post) [ Geeh! I scoured the quiz / 5 myths and nowhere did I see
the obvious myth; viz., that she really had a brain. Maybe gal pal pol protégé
o’donnell can help her out … a few mysterious words, a slimy newt (gingrich) in
a caldron of b*** s*** , and voila … a new reality which is what o’donnell
herself is sorely in need of … O'Donnell, evolved Milbank: She didn't mention
mice with human brains in Wednesday's debate. But she said silly things.
Stromberg: O'Donnell is... wow The CNN host, moderating the long awaited
Delaware senatorial debate Wednesday night, was trying to get the Republican
nominee to talk about her 1998 statement on the Bill Maher show that
"evolution is a myth."
"Do you believe evolution is a myth?" Blitzer asked.
"I believe that the local ... " O'Donnell began, then started anew.
"I was talking about what a local school taught, and that should be
taught, that should be decided on the local community."
"Do you believe evolution is a myth?" the moderator repeated.
"Local schools should make that decision."
"What do you believe?"
"What I believe is irrelevant."
"Why is it irrelevant? Voters want to know."
"What I will support in Washington, D.C. is the ability of the local
school system to decide what is taught in their classrooms," O'Donnell
repeated.
The answer, though, was obvious: Of course she believes in evolution; she is a
product of evolution herself. She has evolved from a very odd woman who spoke
about the evils of masturbation and of mice with fully functioning human brains
and of her experience in sorcery (but she didn't join a coven!). …]
Comment on:
U.S.-led forces aiding reconciliation talks between
Afghan government, Taliban at 10/14/2010 9:57 PM EDT
U.S.-led
forces aiding reconciliation talks between Afghan government, Taliban
(Washington Post) [ Yeah! I think quite a few people are saying none too soon,
and then there’s the american defacto bankruptcy thing … and then when america
can gracefully or ungracefully vacate other peoples lands … sounds like a plan!
Drudgereport: 13 troops killed in Afghanistan -- in two days... ]
Afghan spending faces scrutiny (Washington Post) Wow! Talk about a little bit
late for that. Oh, right … they were busy spending money the nation doesn’t
have on other things. Congress extends war funding for Afghanistan Baltimore
Co. Independent Examiner | Congress voted to extend funding for the war in
Afghanistan by an additional $59 billion late on Tuesday. Disappearing Act:
$8.7 Billion of Iraq Development Money Missing Kurt Nimmo | Government says it
is all the fault of shoddy accounting practices. 3 U.S. troops die in Afghan
war's deadliest month (Washington Post 7-30-10) World News Digest: a Worth it?
4 U.S. troops die in bomb blast in south Afghanistan (AP, July 24, 2010) ‘There
will be blood’ … whoops, that’s oil, wrong movie theme. This one’s about heroin
trade. 2 More Americans killed in copter crash in Afghanistan (AP) Not so much,
unless they rename Tony Montana, to To Mon el Swahili and recut ‘Scarface’ to
reflect an Aghanistan Heroin connection, or similarly change ‘Hurt Locker’.
It’s a good thing for the military that IQ tests aren’t required. Three U.S.
Embassy guards killed in rocket attack in Baghdad's Green Zone (Washington
Post) Big yes there since ‘The Green Zone’ got Hollywood movie status. Bomb
near Iraq mosque kills 15; U.S. soldier dies in road blast (Washington Post,
July 22, 2010) But guess what … none of that’s worth it; even for volunteer
soldiers whose suicide rate is unprecedented owing to this pointless,
meaningless conflagration for the sake of the military industrial complex and
the enrichment of the few; and, to which Pat Tillman was to attest which got
him fragged.
Comment on:
Lack of proper mortgage paper trail could leave big banks
reeling again at
10/14/2010 9:13 PM EDT
Debacle
threatens economy - Lack of proper mortgage paper trail could leave big banks
reeling again
oy (Washington Post) [ Could? Kind of brings to mind the old wives’ tale that
ghosts are spirits that don’t realize they’re already dead … I mean, let’s get
real! ]
Comment on:
Worries over fast-tracked foreclosures send bank stocks
plummeting at
10/14/2010 9:04 PM EDT
Foreclosure
worries shock bank stocks (Washington Post) [ Come on! If it was only that,
they’d be jumpin’ for joy. The fact is the economic realities are far more dire
than the pre-election spin; and then there are the toxic assets / paper /
securities now marked to ‘anything’ as per legislated FASB rule change. The
last debacle has never really ended and Davis explains, infra, how these stock
rallies are all hot air. ]
The 'Rubber Band Rule' Proves Pretty Effective TraderMark
‘On Wednesday I noted that the market was approaching levels above the 13-day
moving average where it typically corrected from during this rally. There was
still a bit of room to the upside (about 0.3%-0.7%) but the
rubber band was being pulled quite strongly. Effectively this is a
simplistic way to speak of 'mean reversion.' For now the pattern continues....
buying comes
in on the pullbacks to the 13 day, and then the market rallies and gets
2-3% above the 13 day, and that is where selling and/or consolidation occurs.
It is nothing if not mechanically (silicon) consistent. One time this will be
wrong. The pattern is the pattern... until it is not. Then you get havoc, and
finally the bulls will get trapped. Of course, you never know which time will
be the change. I thought it would have happened by now, but we are not
operating under normal quasi-free market rules (rarely have we the past 3 years
but now its a level of extreme beyond compare). So historical rule books are
not working as well in 2008-2010. (Chart) As of now, S&P 1158 is
the 13 day and it should move up tomorrow a few points. At some point QE is
priced into the market, and I also have thought it would have happened by now,
incorrectly. So each time we have an event like Bernanke talking tomorrow
morning, we have to see if the market shrugs it off. There *have* been some
divergences the past 24 hours - yesterday I noted the bond market
(longer duration) reversing, and today even as the dollar is bludgeoned yet
again we are not getting the "buy anything that moves" trade. Are
those warnings signs or irrelevant? Obviously in 2 weeks it will be easier to
tell you. I can print a litany of warning signs ... 93%
of stocks in S&P 500 over 50 day moving average, rampant speculation in
(pardon my french) s*** stocks, lack of leadership from former generals (the
cloud computing stocks), and now rumors planted by banksters that Yahoo is
going to be bought out (congrats to the CEO for $37M pay day for accomplishing
no value add for shareholders by the way), or the latest buyout rumor: EMC
Computer which is a fine $40B+ company. Surely Oracle will be happy to spit out
$50B+ to buy it... after all, it's only money and we're printing more every
second. But lots of those signs have been around for a while, and QE has
overwhelmed everything. We need to see an event such as the speech tomorrow in
which the market does not bid up risk assets on news EVERYONE already knows to
mark any serious selling point... combined with a break of this 13 day MA (in
my opinion). When the QE2 meme loses its potency, we finally have a change. As
an aside, let me keep repeating - so it is not lost in the day to day - this
will end badly. Frankly almost every 'solution' of the past 3 years brings with
it terrible consequences - because we refuse to take our medicine. We just
don't know when "it" happens... all we are doing is repeating the
same policies that got us NASDAQ 99 and real estate 2005, and commodities 2007.
We are just making the bets bigger and more dangerous, and kicking the can of
yarn (which each time it rolls, it grows). I've written many times when we look
back in a decade Bernanke will be viewed in the same harsh light as
Greenspan... even though "the market" worshiped Greenspan when he was
doing those things, just as "the market" worships Bernanke. Look at
these PE firms borrowing money to reward themselves as if its 2006 again, look
at the hedgies bidding up risk assets with free money, look at the banks cost
of capital near zilch (and they still can't get out of their own way). Everyone
is getting 'rich' off the risk assets (woo hoo) - why would "the market"
not love central bankers like this? Why am I talking like this? I should be
celebrating like a good ole Wall Streeter! But as a common American - you
should be anywhere from disgusted to fearful of what these people are doing.
Just as Greenspan refused to allow a real (cleansing) recession under his
watch, and instead created a pressure valve that once blown brought down the
entire U.S. financial system - Bernanke is painting the exact same portrait.
But like good Romans, we are supposed to enjoy the orgy while it happens and
let tomorrow worry about itself - Cramerican style. Just
don't lose sight of the long run - the consequences of this 'recovery' are
going to be debilitating. My only shock is as we repeat the same Fed induced
bubbles now on 5-8 year cycles, no one questions those who bring us these
issues repeatedly - instead we give them even more power. Quite amazing really.
Disclosure:
None’
Economists Herald New Great
Depression The world is currently
experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression, according to a
prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others now forecasting
ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.) , and my position
and that of demographer Dent (This is a global depression. This is a
secular bear market in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated
bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically
manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that
the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical
wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior
crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until
justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted,
jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. Krugman: It's All Downhill From
Here Cullen Roche Love him or hate him
Paul Krugman has been awfully right with regards to the macro picture in the
last few years. He’s one of the rare economists who had the foresight to see
the housing bubble and the likelihood of economic downturn that would result
from it. Krugman recently caused a stir when he said the US economy was headed for
the third depression. He isn’t back down from that outlook:
I’ve had a couple of conversations
lately with people who follow politics and public affairs, but aren’t that close
to the economic discussion — and I’ve discovered that there are two comforting
delusions still out there.
Delusion #1 is that we’re on the road
to recovery, just more slowly than we’d like; to be fair, the White House keeps
saying this.
But it’s not at all true. GDP is
growing below potential; employment, even if you focus just on private
employment, is growing more slowly than the working-age population. If you ask
how long it will take us to return to, say, 5 percent unemployment on the
current track, the answer is forever.
Delusion #2 is the belief that the
stimulus may yet do the trick, because there are still substantial funds
unspent. I tried to deal with this last year.
The level of GDP depends not on total funds spent, but on the rate at which
funds are being spent, which has already peaked; GDP growth on the rate of
change in the rate at which funds are being spent, which peaked last year. It’s
all downhill from here.
Harry
Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012). ]
This is still an especially
great opportunity to sell / take profits! Suckers’ rally into the close to keep suckers suckered
(easy for the wall street frauds to do with just a mouse click / push of the
button). The unemployment numbers again came in decidedly worse than expected
along with other negative data (and in the ‘wrong direction’, that spin
accorded ‘down but not as bad as before’ b*** s*** ) yet the market has rallied
like no tomorrow with used home foreclosure / distressed sales, though abated
owing to ‘foreclosuregate’, the other ‘heralded’ good news. Moreover, the dumbo lemmings of Europe have
jumped on the fraudulent defacto bankrupt american crazy train propelled to the
precipice also as if no tomorrow. This is about keeping the suckers sucked in
with the help of a market-frothing pre-election debased dollar for favorable
currency translation and paper (but not real when measured in, ie., gold, etc.)
profits which preceded the last crisis, inflating a bubble as in the last
crisis to facilitate the churn-and-earn, particularly with computerized (and
high frequency) trades and which commissions they’ll get again on the way down.
There is nothing to support these overbought stock prices, fundamentally or
otherwise. These are desperate criminals ‘at work’. Even wall street shill, the
senile Buffett is saying we’re still in a recession (depression). Buffett: We're Still in a Recession [ Wow! A moment of lucidity from senile
Buffet which belies his prior ‘rosy wall street shill talk’, but his greater
candor is welcomed nonetheless although the ‘d’ (for depression) word is more
appropriate and accurate.] Roche
‘Warren Buffett disagrees with the NBER. He says we’re still in a recession and
likely to remain in a recession for quite a while. These comments are far more
tempered than the ones that were published last week. Of
course, my favorite part in this clip is where he says the U.S. government did
the right thing in responding to the crisis. They certainly did the right thing
for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
shareholders. Whether or not they did the right thing for America is a whole
other story…’ [ And, of course we now know that it wasn’t the right thing for
america … The question inevitably
becomes, ‘Who’s manipulating who, what, and why? After all, we know defacto
bankrupt america’s pervasively corrupt! ]
The
Root of the Problem The Inflation Trader [
I think it unfortunate that most fail to
properly weight in their analysis the irrevocable structural shift that has
occurred in the defacto bankrupt u.s. and which cannot be undone. The ‘powers
that be’ literally gave up (sold out) the american store (ie., technology
transfers for money, protracted treasury depleting and geopolitically unwise
wars, perma-frauds on wall street without prosecution, pervasive corruption at
all levels including all three branches of the u.s. government, etc., covered
elsewhere on this site.) Then of course there’s the insurmountable debt and
interest thereon which is now eating into real (not fake / falsified ) GDP
along with other unserviceable promises exacerbating the magnitude of the
nations defacto insolvency. ] See infra.
The 'Rubber Band Rule' Proves Pretty Effective TraderMark
‘On Wednesday I noted that the market was approaching levels above the 13-day
moving average where it typically corrected from during this rally. There was
still a bit of room to the upside (about 0.3%-0.7%) but the
rubber band was being pulled quite strongly. Effectively this is a
simplistic way to speak of 'mean reversion.' For now the pattern continues....
buying comes
in on the pullbacks to the 13 day, and then the market rallies and gets
2-3% above the 13 day, and that is where selling and/or consolidation occurs.
It is nothing if not mechanically (silicon) consistent. One time this will be
wrong. The pattern is the pattern... until it is not. Then you get havoc, and
finally the bulls will get trapped. Of course, you never know which time will
be the change. I thought it would have happened by now, but we are not
operating under normal quasi-free market rules (rarely have we the past 3 years
but now its a level of extreme beyond compare). So historical rule books are
not working as well in 2008-2010. (Chart) As of now, S&P 1158 is
the 13 day and it should move up tomorrow a few points. At some point QE is
priced into the market, and I also have thought it would have happened by now,
incorrectly. So each time we have an event like Bernanke talking tomorrow
morning, we have to see if the market shrugs it off. There *have* been some
divergences the past 24 hours - yesterday I noted the bond market
(longer duration) reversing, and today even as the dollar is bludgeoned yet
again we are not getting the "buy anything that moves" trade. Are
those warnings signs or irrelevant? Obviously in 2 weeks it will be easier to
tell you. I can print a litany of warning signs ... 93%
of stocks in S&P 500 over 50 day moving average, rampant speculation in
(pardon my french) s*** stocks, lack of leadership from former generals (the
cloud computing stocks), and now rumors planted by banksters that Yahoo is
going to be bought out (congrats to the CEO for $37M pay day for accomplishing
no value add for shareholders by the way), or the latest buyout rumor: EMC
Computer which is a fine $40B+ company. Surely Oracle will be happy to spit out
$50B+ to buy it... after all, it's only money and we're printing more every
second. But lots of those signs have been around for a while, and QE has
overwhelmed everything. We need to see an event such as the speech tomorrow in
which the market does not bid up risk assets on news EVERYONE already knows to
mark any serious selling point... combined with a break of this 13 day MA (in
my opinion). When the QE2 meme loses its potency, we finally have a change. As
an aside, let me keep repeating - so it is not lost in the day to day - this
will end badly. Frankly almost every 'solution' of the past 3 years brings with
it terrible consequences - because we refuse to take our medicine. We just
don't know when "it" happens... all we are doing is repeating the
same policies that got us NASDAQ 99 and real estate 2005, and commodities 2007.
We are just making the bets bigger and more dangerous, and kicking the can of
yarn (which each time it rolls, it grows). I've written many times when we look
back in a decade Bernanke will be viewed in the same harsh light as
Greenspan... even though "the market" worshiped Greenspan when he was
doing those things, just as "the market" worships Bernanke. Look at
these PE firms borrowing money to reward themselves as if its 2006 again, look
at the hedgies bidding up risk assets with free money, look at the banks cost
of capital near zilch (and they still can't get out of their own way). Everyone
is getting 'rich' off the risk assets (woo hoo) - why would "the
market" not love central bankers like this? Why am I talking like this? I
should be celebrating like a good ole Wall Streeter! But as a common American -
you should be anywhere from disgusted to fearful of what these people are
doing. Just as Greenspan refused to allow a real (cleansing) recession under
his watch, and instead created a pressure valve that once blown brought down
the entire U.S. financial system - Bernanke is painting the exact same
portrait. But like good Romans, we are supposed to enjoy the orgy while it
happens and let tomorrow worry about itself - Cramerican style. Just don't lose sight of the long run - the consequences of
this 'recovery' are going to be debilitating. My only shock is as we repeat the
same Fed induced bubbles now on 5-8 year cycles, no one questions those who
bring us these issues repeatedly - instead we give them even more power. Quite
amazing really. Disclosure: None’
Economists Herald New Great
Depression The world is currently
experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression, according to a
prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others now forecasting
ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.) , and my position
and that of demographer Dent (This is a global depression. This is a
secular bear market in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated
bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically
manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that
the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical
wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior
crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until
justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted,
jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. Krugman: It's All Downhill From
Here Cullen Roche Love him or hate him
Paul Krugman has been awfully right with regards to the macro picture in the
last few years. He’s one of the rare economists who had the foresight to see
the housing bubble and the likelihood of economic downturn that would result
from it. Krugman recently caused a stir when he said the US economy was headed
for the third depression. He isn’t back down from that outlook:
I’ve had a couple of conversations
lately with people who follow politics and public affairs, but aren’t that
close to the economic discussion — and I’ve discovered that there are two
comforting delusions still out there.
Delusion #1 is that we’re on the road
to recovery, just more slowly than we’d like; to be fair, the White House keeps
saying this.
But it’s not at all true. GDP is
growing below potential; employment, even if you focus just on private
employment, is growing more slowly than the working-age population. If you ask
how long it will take us to return to, say, 5 percent unemployment on the
current track, the answer is forever.
Delusion #2 is the belief that the
stimulus may yet do the trick, because there are still substantial funds
unspent. I tried to deal with this last year.
The level of GDP depends not on total funds spent, but on the rate at which
funds are being spent, which has already peaked; GDP growth on the rate of
change in the rate at which funds are being spent, which peaked last year. It’s
all downhill from here.
Harry
Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012). ]
Feds
press mortgage lenders to fix documents (Washington Post) [
Fix documents? In matters involving far more serious crimes of far more
significance longer term to the nation, I’d be content with mere adherence to
clear law applied to the documented facts, no matter where and to whom the
crimes lead … see infra… ] White
House says Obama will not sign foreclosure bill [ Oooooh, whoops … Sounds like a plan!] Consumer advocates and state officials argue legislation would
make it difficult for homeowners to challenge documents prepared in other
states. [When talking about the
pervasively corrupt american legal / judicial system, you’re truly talking
about tips of the iceberg! Judges
rule without title, lenders can't foreclose (Washington Post) [
Rules of law? I didn’t think they cared. That’s certainly the direct experience
I’ve had with the pervasively corrupt american legal / judicial system (along
with the other two branches of the u.s. government and defact bankrupt america
generally). Court decisions could call into doubt the ownership of mortgages,
raising urgent challenges for both the real estate market, wider financial
system. Connecticut,
California join probe of Ally (Washington Post) [I’d be much more impressed if they initiated a probe of more
readily discernible criminal offenses in violation of the RICO Act http://albertpeia.com Frauds/Liars
(sic-lawyers)Covering Up for Other Frauds/Liars (sic-lawyers). In Productive
Societies as China, Japan, etc., Fraudulent Liars (sic-lawyers) and the
Fraudulent u.s. System They're a Part of Are Unheard Of/Non-existent. List of
Files Regarding Filed Attorney Grievance Against Fraud coan et als Or Here For A Clearer View Of
Filed
Grievance Complaint, Response, Exhibits, and Related RICO Filings Note the Committee of
Frauds/Liars (sic-lawyers). Included are DOJ Rep., State Court Rep., State
Atty. General Office Rep., and even a Vegetable Garden yale law prof who
probably never practiced law in his life. How Pathetic! http://albertpeia.com/fbiofficela91310
] Justice:
FBI improperly opened probes
(Washington Post) [ I just hope
they’re as zealous (in probing readily discernible crime) with regard to my
RICO matters and the corruption in the (judicial / legal) process since, in the
final analysis, it will have been the corruption within that will have brought
the nation down irrevocably and totally.
October
5, 2010 (*see infra)
Steven M. Martinez,
Assistant Director In Charge
Federal Bureau of Investigation, USDOJ
11000 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 1700
Dear Sir:
I enclose herewith 3
copies of the within DVD rom autorun disk (which will open in your computer’s
browser) as per your office’s request as made this day (the disk and contents
have been scanned by Avast, McAfee, and Norton which I’ve installed on my computer
to prevent viral attacks / infection and are without threat). I also include 1
copy of the DVD as filed with the subject court as referenced therein (which
files are also included on the aforesaid 3 disks in a separate folder named
‘112208opocoan’). The (civil) RICO action (as you’re aware, the RICO Act is a
criminal statute which provides a civil remedy, including treble damages and
attorney fees, as an incentive for private prosecution of said claims probably
owing to the fact that the USDOJ seems somewhat overwhelmed and in need of such
assistance given the seriousness and prevalence of said violations of law which
have a corrupting influence on the process, and which corruption is pervasive).
A grievance complaint against Coan was also filed concurrently with the subject
action and held in abeyance pending resolution of the action which was
illegally dismissed without any supporting law and in contravention of the
Order of The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge, USDC, District
Connecticut. The files below the horizontal rule are the referenced documents
as filed. (Owing to the damage to the financial interests of both the U.S. and
the District of Congresswoman Roybal-Allard, viz., Los Angeles, the
Qui Tam provisions of the Federal
False Claims Act probably would apply and I would absent resolution seek to
refer the within to a firm with expertise in that area of the law with which I
am not familiar).
The document in 5 pages under penalty of
perjury I was asked to forward to the FBI office in New Haven is probably the
best and most concise summary of the case
RICO Summary
to FBI Under Penalty of Perjury at Their Request (5 pages) [
ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf ].
The correspondence I
received from the Congresswoman by way of email attachment (apparent but
typical problem with my mail) along with my response thereto is included on the
3 disks as fbicorrespondencereyes.htm .
With regard to the calls to the FBI’s LA and New Haven, CT offices:
There was one call to the LA office and I was referred to the Long Beach, CA
office where I personally met with FBI Agent Jeff Hayes to whom I gave
probative evidentiary documents of the money laundering which he confirmed as
indicative of same (he was transferred from said office within approximately a
month of said meeting and his location was not disclosed to me upon inquiry).
The matter was assigned to FBI Agent Ron Barndollar and we remained in touch
for in excess of a decade until he abruptly retired (our last conversation
prior to his retirement related to the case and parenthetically, Rudy Giuliani
whose father I stated had been an enforcer for the mob to which he registered
disbelief and requested I prove it, which I did – he served 12 years in prison,
aggravated assault/manslaughter? – and no, there is no Chinese wall of
separation – Andrew Maloney’s the one that prosecuted gotti).
In contradistinction
to the statement in said correspondence, there is a plethora of information
including evidence supporting the claims set forth in the RICO
VERIFIED COMPLAINT
(see infra). Such includes and as set forth in the case, inter alia,
There is applicable insurance / surety coverage and neither LA, nor
creditors, nor I should continue to have been damaged by this brazened corrupt
and illegal scenario, which should be resolved in accordance with the
meaningful rules of law apposite thereto.
Sincerely,
Albert L. Peia
611 E. 5th Street, #404
Los Angeles, CA 90013
(213) ******* (cell phone)
(213) 622-3745 (listed land line but there are unresolved problems with
the line, computer connection may be the reason but I hesitate to chance
greater non-performance / worsening by their ‘fix’ so cell phone best for
contact).
----------
*The foregoing and as
indicated therein was previously send 9-14-10 but delivery confirmation was
flawed as set forth below and my inquiries to the u.s. postal service rebuffed
(I believe tampered with inasmuch as your office could not locate same). This
cover letter (9-13-10) is on the 3 disks with navigable hyperlinks to the
subject files for ease of reference, including the files in the RICO action as
indicated.
-----
Label/Receipt Number:
0310 1230 0000 0862 8183
Expected Delivery
Date: September 15, 2010
Class: Priority Mail®
Service(s): Delivery
Confirmation™
Status: Delivered
Your item was delivered
at 10:14 am on September 15, 2010 in LOS ANGELES, CA 90024.
Track and
Confirm
Enter Label/Receipt Number.
Enter Label / Receipt
Number.
Detailed
Results:
Bullet Delivered, September 15, 2010, 10:14 am, LOS
ANGELES, CA 90024
Bullet Arrival at Post Office, September 15, 2010,
4:12 am, LOS ANGELES, CA 90024
Bullet Processed through Sort Facility, September 14,
2010, 8:29 pm, LOS ANGELES, CA 90052
Bullet Acceptance, September 14, 2010, 4:04 pm, LOS
ANGELES, CA 90017
----
Sent Postage Prepaid: United States Mail - VIA Priority
Mail, Delivery Confirmation and VIA Certified Mail this 5th day of October,
2010.
Signed:
___________________________________
Albert L. Peia
RealtyTrac
Reports Q3 Foreclosures Hit All Time Record… Just In Time For The Plunge Looks
like someone may have had a little advance notice on October’s foreclosure
semi-moratorium festivities. According to RealtyTrac, September foreclosures
marked a 5 month high of 347,420, jumping 3% from the previous month and 1%
from September 2009, even as the 3rd quarters marked the highest foreclosure
activity on record.
Report
From Europe: Rise in Jobless Claims Takes Shine Off Stocks The Mole The QE
trade is alive and well and risk assets are firing on all cylinders. Gains in
stocks and commodities, in particular, are now accelerating. It seemed to me
that QE2 talk would prove bullish for risk assets. And the lack of a
cooperative stance within the G20 on currency matters – as the IMF meetings
over the weekend showed – is now adding fuel to the fire. To recap U.S. stocks
rose Weds, sending benchmark indexes to five-month highs (but failed to close
above the key 1175 level), as better-than-estimated results at CSX Corp. (CSX) and China’s record currency reserves
boosted optimism in the economic recovery. CSX, the second-largest publicly
traded U.S. railroad, rallied 4.2 percent after also saying it’s seeing
improvements across almost all markets, Alcoa added 1.3 percent and
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX)
advanced 3.8 percent leading a measure of raw materials producers to the
biggest gain among 10 industries in the S&P’s 500 Index, amid speculation
that Chinese demand will improve after the world’s fastest-growing major
economy announced $2.65 trillion in currency reserves. But JP Morgan (JPM), which had opened up 2 percent after
beating the Street by 13 percent, later turned offered as on second glance the
figures were flattered by a higher reserve release and lower provisions and
finished the day down 1.5 percent. I think those Chilean miners have become too
mainstream…I preferred them when they were underground!
Today’s Market Moving Stories
Company
/ Equity News
wobama, palin, limbaugh distant cousins … I knew
there were some dark secrets there … hillbilly heroin, etc..
The
Root of the Problem The Inflation Trader [
I think it unfortunate that most fail to
properly weight in their analysis the irrevocable structural shift that has
occurred in the defacto bankrupt u.s. and which cannot be undone. The ‘powers
that be’ literally gave up (sold out) the american store (ie., technology
transfers for money, protracted treasury depleting and geopolitically unwise
wars, perma-frauds on wall street without prosecution, pervasive corruption at
all levels including all three branches of the u.s. government, etc., covered
elsewhere on this site.) Then of course there’s the insurmountable debt and
interest thereon which is now eating into real (not fake) GDP along with other
unserviceable promises exacerbating the magnitude of the nations defacto
insolvency. ] ‘Your view of something often depends on the position from
which you view it. I don’t mean this in the Theory-Of-Relativity sense that a
moving observer perceives time differently from the stationary observer, although
it is true there too of course. I mean it in the more prosaic sense that a
tightrope seems higher when you are standing on it than when you are looking at
it from below. As observers of the economy, our initial position – our ‘null
hypothesis,’ as I sometimes refer to it – will very much drive our response to
economic data; our market position may, if we are not very careful about it,
affect our view of the likely future direction of the market. The Federal
Reserve yesterday released the minutes of their most-recent meeting, and it
looks to me as if their perspective about the necessity of quantitative easing
is more biased than we had previously believed. While the minutes reflected (as
they often have, especially over the last two years) a diversity of opinion,
the following notation grabbed my attention:
Several members noted that unless the pace of
economic recovery strengthened or underlying inflation moved back toward a
level consistent with the Committee’s mandate, they would consider it appropriate
to take action soon.
Notice the subtle difference between this and what
actually was agreed to be released as the FOMC’s statement for that meeting:
Measures of underlying inflation are currently at
levels somewhat below those the Committee judges most consistent, over the
longer run, with its mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability.
“Longer run” in the second phrase seems to conflict
with “soon” in the first phrase, making it appear that the official statement
was a compromise with at least several members pushing for action “soon.” But
that cadre also sets the bar quite low. They aren’t saying the Fed should ease
further if things get worse, but that they should ease if
things don’t get better quickly enough.That’s a very activist slant.
While this group appears to be in the minority, we know from the various
speeches that it isn’t a minority of one. QE certainly appears more likely
every day that we don’t get positive blow-out economic news.
What is the justification for easing on the basis of
a too-slow improvement? I imagine much of this concerns a fairly obscure debate
about whether economic growth is “unit root” or not. Stay with me here. This
sounds esoteric, but it matters.
It isn’t important to understand the mathematics behind
determining whether a time series is generated by a process with a unit root;
if you’re interested, you can read the Wikipedia article on ‘unit
root.’ * For our purposes, what is important to understand is this: if
economic output is not unit root but is rather trend-stationary, then
over time the economy will tend to return to the trend level of output. If
economic output is unit root, then a shock to the economy such as we
have experienced will not naturally be followed by a return to the prior level
of output. Actually, the Wikipedia chart is pretty helpful at understanding
this – see below (chart). This picture taken from the Wikipedia
article on "unit root" (see above for link)
So, the red line is what we have experienced the last
few years (stylistically, not literally). If growth is “unit root” then the
trend basically picks up from where output is in the immediate aftermath of the
shock; if growth is trend-stationary then the recovery should see a period of
faster-than-trend growth to get output back to the prior trend level. Note that
in both cases, we are assuming no specific contribution from monetary policy.
If you believe that growth is trend-stationary, then monetary policy merely
serves to get growth back to trend more quickly, thereby minimizing the welfare
loss from the output gap (schematically, the area between the dotted line and
the “actual” red/blue line). Thereafter, monetary policy takes the pedal off
the metal and lets growth converge with trend. If, on the other hand, you
believe that growth is unit root, then monetary policy is either trying to
arrest the decline in the red line to put the economy back on the green line,
or it is (dangerously) trying to accelerate growth back to a “trend” that is
not really a trend. I expect this is the substance of Hoenig’s objection – if
we’re back near the green line, and output is unit root, then goosing the
economy more “will lead to future imbalances that undermine stable long-run
growth” (the phrase from the FOMC statement where Hoenig’s dissent was noted).
Clearly, most of the Committee doesn’t believe
that output is unit root, because if it did then it would tend to be more
suspicious of the ability of Fed policy to reduce that welfare loss. It is true
that it is difficult to reject the unit root hypothesis for many economic time
series – the ratio of noise to signal in economic data means it tends to be
pretty hard to reject many hypotheses that are in the ballpark of
being reasonable. But it matters. Problems like this, where the downside to
being incorrect are possibly quite large compared to the upside to being right,
argue against dramatic Fed action. However, the sense of heroism inculcated in
us at a young age by Superman’s exploits argue in favor of heroic measures.
Most of us, though, aren’t actually bulletproof. I will make one final
observation about this that throws another wrench in the works. What if we
don’t know where the dotted line in the picture above actually lies? Long-term
economic growth has changed over time as the economy has matured, as population
growth changed, and for other reasons. Suppose the unobservable dotted line actually
intersects the right-end of the red line? In that case, the current debate
takes a totally different patina. If trend growth has actually slowed down in
the last decade, then arguably the economic and financial crisis may just have
been returning us down to the real trend. In that case, further aggressive Fed
action would be essentially trying to restore those dangerous imbalances. This,
too, could be part of Hoenig’s argument. And this possibility, too, argues for
conservative policy actions.
In economics, unfortunately, we don’t have a map we
can look at where a bright red dot indicates You Are Here. But
wherever we are, it seems that an increasingly influential minority at the Fed
wants to be somewhere else. They are likely to get their wish. The markets
responded to all of this yesterday in sleepy fashion, with one exception. The
VIX plunged, dropping not only below 20 for the first time since April but also
dropping below 19. The degree of confidence being expressed by the stock market
here, heading into earnings season followed by a difficult holiday sales
season, is chilling. It is hard to let go of suddenly-performing equities, but
I am making sales here of some of my lower-yielding and less-conservative
equity holdings. Other than some import price data today, there is little on
the calendar. Chairman Bernanke is giving a speech on business innovation, but
be alert for Q&A.
The
Coming Bomb From Helicopter Ben Epeneter ‘At the
Federal Open Market Committee meeting on November 2nd and 3rd, the Federal
Reserve may be ready to buy anywhere from $500 billion to $1 trillion of US
Treasuries and mortgages from banks, financial institutions, and the open
market, an operation generally known as printing money. Federal Reserve
Chairman Ben Bernancke, New York Fed President William Dudley, Chicago
President Charles Evans, the Boston President, and others are targeting a 2%
inflation rate (the CPI is now about 1%). Their hope is that unemployment will
be substantially reduced, gross domestic product will increase, and hope and
happiness will return. We think the size of this money-printing operation
qualifies as a "bomb" to the markets. Here's five reasons why it's a
bomb and won't work as planned.
An increase in the inflation rate quite possibly already in the pipeline.
Since Chairman (Helicopter Ben) Bernancke announced his intentions at the
August Jackson Hole Wyoming conference, prices for gold, oil, copper, steel,
platinum and other precious commodities have risen substantially. These price
increases will eventually find their way into the final cost of goods and
services you and I buy. An inflation rate of 2% could happen without any
further action by the Federal Reserve.
Limited inflation targeting will not work as shown by history. Former
Federal Reserve Chairman William McChesney Martin retired in 1970, but during
his tenure, he testified before the Senate Finance Committee, "There is no
validity whatever in the idea that any inflation, once accepted, can be
confined to moderate proportions." The experience of the 70's seems to
support his statement. During the 50's and 60's it was thought that some
inflation was good for the economy. Looks those who forgot history are putting
forth again the idea that limited inflation is good.
Businesses won't borrow until they have confidence that other costs won't
go up. The real problem that Federal Reserve money printing doesn't
address is the reluctance of business owners to hire more workers and expand
business until they know what the costs are going to be (such as health
insurance) and what the income tax rate will be (such as the Bush tax cut
extension). In addition, owners are struggling with new regulations imposed
upon them
Banks won't lend. Banks are building their capital bases and
their lending standards have increased. Lending activity is down because of
those reasons and providing more cash will not affect lending activity much if
any.
The cost/benefit analysis doesn't support it. The Federal Reserve
has modeled what would happen if they printed $500 billion of new money. The
interest rate on the benchmark 10-yr Treasury note would decrease by .15% or 15
basis points. Unemployment would decrease by 0.2%. GDP would increase by 0.2%.
We would ask whether the cost of inflation to the United States as a whole is
worth the benefits as modeled by the Fed…’
A
Look at Small Business Sentiment, Cautious Consumers and the Stealth Recession Short
‘The latest issue of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends is out
today (download PDF).
The heavily watched Small Business Optimism Index rose fractionally from 88.8
to 89.0. Here's a comment from the opening of the report:
The increase is certainly not a significant move, but
at least it did not fall. Still, the Index remains in recession territory. The
downturn may be officially over, but small business owners have for the most
part seen no evidence of it.
The first chart below taken from the report with a line at 100 and some highlights added to help us visualize that dramatic change in small-business sentiment that accompanied the Great Financial Crisis. Compare, for example the Optimism Index of the past three years with the readings in 2000-2003 with the collapse of the Tech Bubble. (chart) The next chart is an overlay of the Optimism Index since 2005 with a 91-day moving average of the Consumer Metrics Institute's Weighted Composite Index, which I regularly monitor here. (chart) The chart suggests that the government's stimulus measures had a temporary impact consumer discretionary spending but little or no impact on small business sentiment. To paraphrase the new NFIB report, the recession may officially be over, but the Small Business Optimism Index is still in recession territory. Disclosure: No positions’
Buying
High, Selling Low Still Popular After All These Years
Government
Prepares To Seize Private Pensions Paul Joseph Watson | ‘Massive wealth confiscation program would replace 401(k)
system with Social Security-run ponzi scheme. The government is preparing to seize the private 401(k) pensions
of millions of Americans while enforcing an additional 5 per cent payroll tax
as part of a new bailout program that will empower the Social Security
Administration to redistribute pension funds in a frightening example of big
government gone wild. Public pension plans have been so aggressively looted
already by the government that cities and counties face a $574 billion funding
gap, according to a CNBC report.
That black hole is set to be filled by a new proposal that will “fairly”
distribute taxpayer-funded pensions to everyone, by confiscating the private
wealth of millions of Americans. Its proponents express staggering arrogance in
thinking that they can just steal money people have worked for decades to
accrue as if it’s their own. Not only would the government confiscate 401(k)
pensions, it would also impose a mandatory 5 per cent payroll tax payable by
everyone, according to a hearing chaired last week by Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa),
Chairman of the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee. “This
would, of course, be a sister government ponzi scheme working in tandem with
Social Security, the primary purpose being to give big government politicians
additional taxpayer funds to raid to pay for their out-of-control spending,” writes Connie Hair.
The hearing was a platform for advocates of Guaranteed Retirement Accounts
(GRAs), a program authored by Teresa Ghilarducci, professor of economic policy
analysis at the New School for Social Research in New York. Back in November
2008, Ghilarducci testified to Congress that 401(k)s and IRAs should be
confiscated and converted into universal Guaranteed Retirement Accounts (GRAs)
managed by the Social Security Administration. “You don’t hold hearings on
something you don’t intend to do,” points out the
Market Ticker blog. “I hate it when I’m right. I hate it even more when
tens of millions of Americans are going to get reamed to pay for the crimes of
the handful on Wall Street, and their crony enablers in Washington DC.”…’
More Bad News: 10 Things You
Should Know About The Latest Economic Numbers The Economic Collapse | We are in such a rapid decline that it is hard for
most Americans to even comprehend it.
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a
Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010 and
2012). ]
Government
Prepares To Seize Private Pensions The government is preparing to seize the
private 401(k) pensions of millions of Americans while enforcing an additional
5 per cent payroll tax as part of a new bailout program that will empower the
Social Security Administration to redistribute pension funds in a frightening
example of big government gone wild.
Israeli MP:
Shoot child rock throwers An Israeli lawmaker has backed the shooting of
Palestinians that throw rocks at settler cars, saying even children should also
be targeted.
Israeli
prime minister offers conditional settlements freeze (Washington Post )
[ Déjà vu all over again? Now why is there a familiar ring to this story
… maybe ‘cause of the ‘been there done that ‘ reality. It’s really quite
incredible since israel’s in violation of u.n. resolutions (242, 338, etc.),
international law, nuclear proliferation treaty, a drain on the the u.s.
globally / domestically, etc.. The u.s. / international community should impose
a resolution. ]
Hostage
accidently killed by rescuers? (Washington Post) [ Winning hearts and minds … riiiiight! ]
Drudgereport:
RASMUSSEN: 63% Angry at Policies of Federal
Government; 43% Very Angry...
America on 'brink of a Second Revolution'...
[ This is more real than most people can imagine!
]
SHE'S A WHAT?
BROWN CAMP CALLS HER A 'W**RE'...
SHOCK AUDIO...
Biden: 'If We Lose, We're Going To Play Hell'..
POLL: BUSH PULLS
EVEN WITH OBAMA [ WOW! THE ULTIMATE INSULT … WELL, AS I’VE BEEN SAYING, THERE’S
VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE … YET, WOBAMA HAD THE EASIEST ACT IN THE WORLD TO FOLLOW AND BLEW IT … OR THEM, BY NOT DOING
WHAT HE CAMPAIGNED AND WON ON … BUT STILL, BUSH THE WAR CRIMINAL, MORON,
INCOMPETENT, ETC., DOESN’T EVEN WARRANT A MENTION, SO DUMB AND PATHETIC WAS HE
… POOR WOBAMA]
JOBLESS RATE TOPS 9.5% FOR 14 STRAIGHT MONTHS...
USA Won't Recover Lost Jobs 'Until March 2020' At
Current Pace … (and they’re still dreamin’) ...
Buchanan: Food Stamp Nation...
WSJ: Dem unleash IRS and Justice on donors to
political opponents … ( but still no wall street fraud prosecutions … they must
be payin’ the big bucks ) ....
GOP Leaders Slam Obama Over Foreign Contributions
'Lie'...
FLASHBACK: Obama Accepting Untraceable Donations...
Dem attack ad sets 'new low for mud'...
REPORT: Brown's wife, not campaign aide, called
Whitman a 'w****' … [ I’d be more concerned with the rudy giuliani kiss of
death endorsement and the folowing seemingly indefensible actions ... Brown Lays Out Sharp Contrast with
Billionaire Opponent in Two New ... Oct 1, 2010 ... The first ad
highlights Jerry Brown's fiscal prudence and job creation ... when she paid
herself $120 million right before the company laid off 10% of
its workers.]
Dollar continues plunge as 'currency war' concerns linger...
Putin Selling First EURO Bonds...
China Reserves May Hit $2.5 Trillion...
Regulators planning worldwide rules for large firms...
420 banks demand 1-world currency...
FDIC may seek $1 billion from
failed-bank executives (Washington Post) [ Isn’t this exactly what
the DOJ should be doing vis-à-vis the frauds on wall street; and additionally, the wall street frauds et als should
as well be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.] The agency has authorized lawsuits against more
than 50 officers and directors of failed banks across the country.
MICROSOFT
issues its biggest-ever security fix...
* Microsoft addresses record 49 flaws in its software
* Affects Windows, Internet Explorer, Office
* Fixes vulnerability exploited by Stuxnet virus (Adds details on Stuxnet
virus, comments from researcher)
By Jim
Finkle BOSTON, Oct 12 (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O)
issued its biggest-ever security fix on Tuesday, including repairs to its ubiquitous
Windows operating system and Internet browser for flaws that could let hackers
take control of a PC.The new patches aim to fix a number of vulnerabilities
including the notorious Stuxnet virus that attacked an Iranian
nuclear power plant and other industrial control systems around the
world.Microsoft said four of the new patches -- software updates that write
over glitches -- were of the highest priority and should be deployed
immediately to protect users from potential criminal attacks on the Windows
operating systems.Microsoft said it also repaired other less serious security
weaknesses in Windows, along with security problems in its widely used Office
software for PCs and Microsoft Server software for business computers.Microsoft
released 16 security patches to address 49 problems in its products, many of
which were discovered by outside researchers who seek out such vulnerabilities
to win cash bounties as well as notoriety for their technical
prowess."This is a huge jump," said Amol Sarwate, a research manager
with computer security provider Qualys Inc. "I think the reason for it is
that more and more people are out there looking for vulnerabilities."The
geeks who report such vulnerabilities to software makers are known as
"white hat" hackers. Sarwate warned that there are also plenty of
"black hats," or criminal hackers who look for vulnerabilities in
software that they can exploit to launch attacks on computer systems.Indeed,
the world's biggest software maker said that the patches released on Tuesday
include software to fix a vulnerability exploited by the Stuxnet virus -- a
malicious program that attacks PCs used to run power plants and other
infrastructure running Siemens (SIEGn.DE)
industrial control systems.The virus, which infected computers at Iran's
Bushehr nuclear power plant, was discovered over the summer. Security research
Symantec said that it detected the highest concentration of the virus on
computer systems in Iran, though it was also spotted in Indonesia, India, the
United States, Australia, Britain, Malaysia and Pakistan.So
far Microsoft has patched three of the four vulnerabilities exploited by
Stuxnet's unknown creators.The total of 49 vulnerabilities exceeds the previous
record of 34, which was set in October 2009 and matched in June and August of
this year.The constant patching of PCs is a time-consuming process for
corporate users, who need to test the fixes before they deploy them to make
sure they do not cause machines to crash because of compatibility problems with
existing software. (Reporting by Jim Finkle. Editing by Robert MacMillan, Gary
Hill)
The Two Parties in a Race to the Fiscal Bottom The Daily
Bail ‘Polticians lie. The national debt
clock tells the truth. Brand new David Stockman interview with the Fiscal
Times.
---
David Stockman, the former budget
director during Ronald Reagan’s first term, speaks out on the Obama presidency,
the state of the economy, the Bush tax cuts, and what the midterm results might
do to the Democratic agenda.
The
Bush tax cuts are “unaffordable,’’ he says. Extending them would be a
“travesty.” President Obama’s stimulus program was “futile.” Ben S. Bernanke,
the Federal Reserve chairman, is undermining the whole economy.
Today,
Stockman says,
Stockman, Reagan’s budget director from
1981 to 1985, initially became famous for his zeal in slashing government
spending on almost everything except defense. Less government and lower taxes,
he fervently believed, would ultimately mean more prosperity for everyone. But
he will be best remembered for confessing, in an interview with William Greider
for The Atlantic Monthly, his disillusionment with the “supply-side” economic
policies that led to soaring deficits under Reagan. “None of us really
understands what’s going on with all these numbers,’’ he declared, along with
many other criticisms that nearly got him fired.
The Fiscal Times [TFT]: What should the president and Congress do about the
Bush tax cuts this year?
David Stockman [DS]:
The fact is, the Bush tax cuts were
unaffordable when enacted a decade ago. Now, two unfinanced wars later, and
after a massive Wall Street bailout and trillion-dollar stimulus spending
spree, it is nothing less than a fiscal travesty to continue adding $300
billion per year to the national debt. This is especially true since these tax
cuts go to the top 50 percent of households, which can get by, if need be, with
the surfeit of consumption goods they accumulated during the bubble years. So
Congress should allow the Bush tax cuts to expire for everyone. By doing
nothing, the government would be committing its first act of fiscal
truth-telling in decades.
TFT: Should the government provide more stimulus for the economy, or cut
spending to bring the deficit down?
DS: We are not in a conventional business cycle recovery, so stimulus
is futile and just adds needlessly to the $9 trillion of Treasury paper
already floating dangerously around world financial markets. Instead, after 40
years of profligate accumulation of public and private debt, and reckless
money-printing by the Fed, we had an economic crash landing, which left us with
an enduring structural breakdown, not just a cyclical downturn.
Author's Disclosure: None’
My
Weekly Market Forecast: Currency Pairs Edition Summers ‘… On this side of the pond, some 43 million Americans
(13% of the total population) are officially living in poverty. The jobs
numbers are a joke and all talk of recovery has been manufactured via
accounting gimmicks or full-scale fraud. I’m detailing more of this in tomorrow’s
article, but for the sake of this week’s forecast, I’m simply trying to point
out that the US economy is on the brink of full-scale disaster and at some
point (possibly this week) this reality could (will) hit the stock market…’
Markets
Continue to Rise Despite Poor Data Equedia Network Corporation‘…It doesn't
matter what economic data is being thrown at us. The markets have continued to
soar despite poor economic numbers, growth, and scandals. But eventually, these
numbers will catch up with the markets.It's no secret that the Obama
administration is doing whatever it can to help fuel the growth in the stock
market ahead of the midterm elections in November. He has to. The stock market
has become a leading indicator for confidence in our economy and judging by
Obama's approval rating, the Democrats could easily lose their power in the
Senate. That's why they have continuously
pumped money into the markets …’
Meaningless
Monday: Rethinking That Round Earth Idea Davis ‘… As I mentioned, because
other countries aren’t as stupid as we imagine, we need to create 3 dollars in
order to borrow 1. That gives us $1 more debt (out of 10) and $2 less value to
our remaining pile. How long can that go on? One reason our currency creation
is so inefficient is because the people we are giving the money to, the Banks,
aren’t willing to invest it in America either. They have their own debt holes
to fill and most of the money we give them goes into a derivatives ($200Tn and
rising) juggling scheme that makes them look solvent and masks their very, very
questionable asset bases.
The
banks take the money the Fed is dumping on them and speculate in commodities
and foreign currencies and THEN they buy some TBills in order to keep the
treadmill running. This forces asset bubbles in things like gold and oil but
they too are a complete illusion because it’s only the idiots with dollars that
are buying them - the rest of the World stopped chasing shiny metals in June
but the flat-Earthers in the US just didn’t seem to get the message. Here’s
gold priced in Euros, which is DOWN 8% in 3 months! (chart)
Our stock
markets, of course, look just even worse - down 10% to the Euro in the last 3 months,
but that won’t stop the MSM from engaging in the Grand Delusion that they are
feeding to the voters this month - that everything is somehow going according
to plan (what plan?)
and happy days are just around the corner - as long as Americans can keep
pretending the World is not round at all but a neat little square with our
great nation on top and in the center.
Well, there’s
a lot to be said for getting out while you’re on top - or at least while there
are still enough people fooled into believing you are on top. As the Joker says
in the "what plan?" link above - Nobody panics when things
go according to plan, EVEN WHEN THE PLAN IS HORRIFYING!
That’s what we
have now, a horrifying plan to prop up the US Economy based on the belief that
the US is the center of the universe and that the rest of the World will be
fooled by our fiscal nonsense. As you can see from the gold chart and the
S&P chart - we stopped fooling them a long time ago. What will happen when
we can no longer fool ourselves?
It’s a
meaningless semi-holiday in America - a day the bulls can only pray will be
quiet, because all my charting indicates that real activity is very likely to
come to the downside this week.’
Bad
News Is Still Good News Nyaradi ‘Last week was all about “bad news being
good” and the Fed and QE2. The news was almost uniformly bad, and regarding QE2
the questions were about how much and when and how much is already priced into
the markets?
Everything
else including mixed earnings reports, “Foreclosure Gate” and an almost
unbelievably bad employment report on Friday was overshadowed by the promise of
more “punch in the punchbowl” from Dr. Bernanke and his cohorts at the Federal
Reserve.
In a
continuation of the “bad news is good news” theme, markets were able to rally
up to significant resistance and remain vastly overbought while gold continued
its tear and the dollar remained under attack.
The only
question that seems to remain is whether or not Dr. Bernanke will be able to
offset the ongoing torrent of negative news and keep our economic ship afloat.
Looking
At My Screens
On the
technical front, markets certainly remain in dangerous territory. RSI is at
levels that typically precede significant corrections and prices are up against
the May highs and significant resistance there. We also see stochastic at
overbought levels and investor sentiment at excessively bullish levels.
Contrary
to prevailing popular opinion, stock prices can go down as well as up.
The View
from 35,000 Feet
On a
fundamental level, “bad news continued to be good” as the unemployment report
was a disaster and “Foreclosuregate” threatens to freeze the entire real estate
market and even threaten the financial system for some unknown period of time.
On the
employment front, the economy shed 95,000 jobs instead of a projected small
gain and this fact alone has led to the market expecting a new round of
quantitative easing coming out of the Feds next meeting. The decline in non
farm payrolls wasn’t the only bad news as U6 rose to 17.1% from 16.7%,
indicating a higher level of underemployment than last month even as the
overall unemployment rate remained static at 9.6%.
There are now
fewer people working in America than there were two years ago and for those
working, the average workweek remained flat at about 32 hours, indicating no
imminent change in hiring by companies.
The other
piece of almost unbelievable news was the announcement that many foreclosures
are in jeopardy because they may not have been carried out correctly.
Allegations of fraud are flying and in response to the flap, foreclosures have
been halted in many states including the suspension of foreclosure activities
by Bank of America in all 50 states. The crisis seems to be set to widen with
the announcement that 40 states attorneys general are joining forces to launch
an investigation into these allegations as early as Tuesday.
This is a
complex and murky issue but basically it seems to throw into question the
validity of thousands of foreclosures that have taken place and present the
possibility that this situation could literally freeze the foreclosure process
for some unknown period of time.
The
ramifications go beyond a frozen real estate market in that it also could
spread to big banks like Bank of America (BAC),
JP Morgan (JPM) and Citigroup (C) which are
highly active in this field and by preventing them from offloading these non
performing loans from their balance sheets for some unknown period of time.
Estimates of
potential fines could range as high as $10 Billion in Ohio alone for one
company being targeted by the Ohio Attorney General and one can only guess
about how deep and black this hole might be.
And finally, a
couple of notes regarding QE 2 came from the President of the St. Louis Fed who
said that its quite possible they could wait until the December meeting to
initiate QE2 and a word of warning from the IMF’s chief economist who said on
CNBC, “I don’t think we should fool ourselves. We have used most of the
monetary ammunition we have.”
What It
All Means
So, all in
all, this is a fine kettle of fish.
The entire
global equities market is betting that “Big Ben” can save the world yet again
and that he’ll start in November. Meanwhile we have a dramatically slowing
economy that can’t generate even a small level of job growth and the potential
for a massive implosion in the real estate and credit world involving a
gigantic asset class, Residential Mortgage Backed Securities.
I’ve said
before that you can’t make this kind of stuff up and, unfortunately, that’s
still true today as we face the beginning of what could be an almost irrelevant
earnings season.’
World food
production must double in the period 1965-2000 to stay even; it must triple if
nutrition is to be brought up to minimum requirements. That there is
insufficient additional, good quality agricultural land available in the world
to meet these needs is so
well documented (Borgstrom, 1965) that we will not belabor the point here.
Then he went into
a long diatribe about how we are going to run out of water, energy, food, land
– and that the heat from nuclear power plants is going to destroy the
climate.
A more easily
evaluated problem is the tremendous quantity of waste heat generated at nuclear
installations (to say nothing of the usable power output, which, as with power
from whatever source, must also ultimately be dissipated as heat). Both have potentially disastrous effects on the local and world
ecological and climatological balance.
This guy must be
the life of the party. After a dozen pages of psychotic disaster prediction, he
gets to the punch line. He wants to snip men’s private parts.
If we may
safely rule out circumvention of the Second Law or the divorce of energy
requirements from population size, this suggests that, whatever science and
technology may accomplish,
population growth must be stopped.
But it cannot
be emphasized enough that if the population control measures are not initiated
immediately and effectively, all the technology man can bring to bear will not
fend off the misery to come.’0 Therefore, confronted as we are with limited
resources of time and money, we must consider carefully what fraction of our
effort should be applied to the cure of the disease itself instead of to
the temporary relief of the symptoms. We should ask, for example, how many vasectomies could be performed by a program funded with the 1.8 billion dollars
required to build a single nuclear agro-industrial complex, and what the
relative impact on the problem would be in both the short and long terms. The decision for population control will be opposed
by growth-minded economists and businessmen, by nationalistic statesmen, by
zealous religious leaders, and by the myopic and well-fed of every description. It is therefore incumbent on all who sense the
limitations of technology and the fragility of the environmental balance to
make themselves heard above the hollow, optimistic chorus-to convince
society and its leaders that there is no alternative but the cessation of
our irresponsible, all-demanding, and all-consuming population growth.
In other
words, he proposed forced sterilization based on his hair-brained theories. His
reward for being dangerous, wrong and anti-democratic? Obama made him his
science advisor.
Buyer
anxiety mounts as foreclosure deals freeze / Homeowners'
dreams in limbo (Washington Post)
[ Ah! That’s not so bad … you know … being in limbo, that is … after all, as the lobotomized VP Biden has
warned, ‘Drudgereport: Biden:
'If We Lose, We're Going To Play Hell'..’ … so that place between
heaven and hell (limbo) ain’t lookin’ so bad … compared to hell that is.] While impact of halted sales has been worse in
regions where lenders need court orders to seize homes, D.C. area market has
also been affected.
Bulls Celebrate Bad News: Dave's Daily ‘The unemployment report came in "worse than expected"
but in this Orwellian environment when the mantra is: "good news is good
and bad news is better", well then, that's the way we roll. Bulls like the
notion of more QE, zero interest rates and Washington gridlock. As to the
latter, distrust of government competence and fiscal discipline has never been
more universal. So we rallied... However, things weren't all peaches and cream
since chip equipment maker Novellus (NVLS) issued a warning pulling down its
shares and dragging others down with it. And, while it may seem nice that many banks are halting
foreclosure procedures it really just postpones the inevitable and makes things
harder for shareholders--unless another bailout is in the works. Markets are
"forward-looking" and if the current theory holds, there must be a
lot of bad news ahead! …’
The
Real World vs. the Stock Market Reitmeister ‘September's Employment
Situation was worse than expected Friday morning. Yet bad news is good news
these days for those who think a second round of Fed quantitative easing (QE2)
will bolster the markets. So stocks bolted into positive territory on the day,
pushing up to Dow 11,000.
It’s
an odd dichotomy. We have a somewhat improving economy. Yet the average person
does not feel better about the situation. That’s because either they or someone
close to them is out of work. (The classic economic joke is that a Recession is
when your neighbor is out of work. A Depression is when you are.)
Along
these lines I noticed something odd today. I drove to my children’s school for
Parent-Teacher conferences. The school is 14 miles away along fairly busy
roads. On the route are three McDonalds. That sounds fairly normal. But then I
saw five Cash for Gold locations. Two of them are brand new; the other three
came around just over the past couple years.
Yes,
gold prices are high… but the real reason for the existence of these places is
for people to trade in family heirlooms for cash because they are going broke.
Then throw in all the vacant stores and it’s hard to get a sense that things
are truly getting better.
So
why are corporate profits going higher? Three main reasons:
1)
Major cost cutting. Mostly on the staffing side of the equation. So each dollar
in revenue produces more profit.
2)
Modestly improving US economy moves up revenue a bit. Combine that with #1
above and it creates attractive year over year profit growth.
3)
About half of US corporate profits these days come from overseas. Europe may be
weak, but growth in China, India, Brazil etc. more than makes up for that
shortfall.
This
is why healthy corporate profits and a rising stock market seem to be
disconnected from the realities in our own backyards. The good news is that
conditions in the US should keep modestly improving, which certainly bolsters
the case for the stock market going forward. Combine this with the alternatives
to the stock market right now are not attractive.
Holding
cash? No thanks.
Treasuries?
That bubble is going to pop sometime (and yes I would recommend buying TBF or TBT for when that party
takes place).
Gold?
That is getting frothy right now. I might be tempted to pick up some on a pull
back. But my history of trading gold is poor. In my long term account I’ve been
riding the bull rally since 2002 when prices were around $300 per ounce. Still
have plenty of shares on hand, mostly GDX (gold miners ETF).
There
is lots in store next week when earnings season heats up. If good results combine
with healthy guidance for the future, then the market will move to the recent
highs of Dow 11,300. If the results are poor, then we'll probably see a retrace
to the 50/200 day moving averages which are converged at around 10,500. My bet
is that we do make it to 11,300. I'm not expecting much beyond that til next
year.
My
Two Cents
During
the day I read many other investment articles of interest. Here are links to
some new ones with my two cents added underneath.
Rail
Traffic Maintains Year High Levels (Todd Sullivan)
There
are a lot of estimate increases recently for the major rails. This is a very
positive sign going into earnings season. I recently picked up some UNP because
of it. But no shame in CSX Corp. (CSX), Kansas City Southern (KSU),
Norfolk Southern (NSC) etc.
Gaining
Traction with Caterpillar? (Ray Merola)
All
the fundamentals are going right for them including the recent drop in the US
dollar making their exports more attractive. I personally prefer Cummins (CMI) and Joy
Global (JOYG).
But no shame in owning CAT.
We
Don't Need QE2 (Calafia Beach Pundit)
Agreed.
No shortage of money. And no person in their right mind would hold cash right
now if they felt there wasn't a better way to get a return. So if they are not
risking that money it's because the reward isn't there. That is the problem.
Disclosure: I own
shares in JOYG, CMI and UNP
(These Amounts Are Not Real But Illustrative)
|
$1 share of stock
|
$1 paper dollar
|
$1 piece of gold
|
$1 loaf of bread
|
$1 bond
|
$1 cd
|
Valuation after doubling amount of money
(printing, QE, etc.) in dollars
|
$2
(but the very temporary spike less than that
accorded hard assets)
|
$1
|
$2
|
$2
|
$1
|
$1
|
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be
in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression
is likely to hit between mid-2010 and mid-2013, especially around early 2011,
but if the banking system continues to implode a deep downturn or depression
could begin sometime in 2009 instead of 2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012 Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002
low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the latest. Inflation will Increase until mid-
2010 and then turn to Deflation Interest
Rates will Increase U.S. Dollar will
Decline Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels Greatest Economic
and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010 and 2012).
UNDERSTANDING THE ( LAST BUT ONGOING SINCE
WORTHLESS TOXIC ASSETS / PAPER, THE PRODUCTS OF THEIR FRAUD, NOW MARKED TO
ANYTHING AS PER LEGISLATED FASB RULE CHANGE STILL OUT THERE IN THE MANY
TRILLIONS) GREAT WALL STREET FRAUD (summarized
- as posted on this site on the dates as indicated)
*(12-30-07) The best and easiest to understand
analogy, though not perfect, to the wall street markets is the kiting of checks
at lightning computerized trading speed on which commissions are taken although
there is nothing of real value underlying their fraudulent scheme. (10-10-08) Now
to bring this analogy closer to the current crisis, assume as is the case of
the worthless sub-prime securities, there is no charge off/debit as is
ordinarily the case with a cleared check and the worthless 'collateralized
sub-prime security' is repackaged, resold, recommissioned based upon as
collateral the original worthless security which is in turn repackaged, resold,
recommissioned based upon as collateral the subsequent worthless security, and
so on to the tune of (hundreds of) trillions of this worthless, fraudulent
paper (blatent securities fraud which must be prosecuted and fraudulently
derived profits disgorged).
*(12-31-07) HIGH FREQUENCY PROGRAMMED TRADING: The
ubiquitous computerization of wall street functions, the
enhancement/advance/integration of the said computer equipment/peripherals in
terms of computing power and speed, along with the concomitant
advance/sophistication of the programming concerning same has enhanced the
ability of the frauds on wall street to effect their frauds with blinding speed
vis-à-vis the funds entrusted to their care by way of programmed trades, ie.,
buy, sell, stop limits, etc.. An example (though not perfect) is
illustrative: Dow drops 200 points as programmed sell orders kick in with
some not so fudged negative news. Nothing changes but the following day the
market rises 205 points on programmed buy orders (a little higher despite the
absence of any positive news). Hence, the huge swings which have become ever so
more prevalent. Though nothing has changed, hundreds of millions of dollars
without relation to any value added (in economic terms, service, etc.) is taken
in commissions (percentages, points, spreads) by the frauds on wall street on
huge computerized trading volume (hence, the multi-billion dollar bonuses on
top of huge salaries, etc.). The fact is that these funds entrusted to them are
so large that such computerized “buys” can simulate other than rational demand
causing prices to rise solely to generate huge commissions to them and new
funds coming in (as in a ponzi scheme). The corrupt government has been
complicit in terms of false economic reports, legislation protecting the fraud
(ie., exemption from RICO accountability, etc.), while the courts are also
corrupt facilitators (ie., new york, new jersey, california, etc., and
similarly don’t count on arbitration panels). There was a time when
transaction costs mattered in financial investment decisions. The
trades/commissions are not a net positive for the economy but are indeed of
great benefit to the recipients of same (who like termites eat away at other
peoples’ money, and whose marginal propensity to consume is less than those
allocating their monies /pensions /401ks/savings etc.; hence, the mess to
follow). Finally, the NASDAQ/tech has become the “safe haven” but in reality as
in the dot.com bust days are just the great story without much fundamental
understanding that keeps the fraudulent ball rolling.
(1-01-08) Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the
wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in
light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since
only A Very Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The
Economy (New Investment Capital via, ie., ipo’S), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically)
"Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized
programmed trades.
*(1-3-08) $14 billion ($21 billion in 2006) in bonuses to the
lunatic/frauds on wall street for a commissionable (sub prime bundled) fraud
well done, inflation up, dollar down, oil prices up, manufacturing down; one
analyst/reporter/journalist from inside sources pegs the sub-prime dollar value
of the shilled worthless paper at $516 TRILLION (even a percentage of same
renders the problem unfixable-hence, culpable parties must be held accountable
and disgorge their ill-gotten gains from, ie., commissioning worthless paper,
taking a point here or there and fraudulently passing same on, ad infinitum,
etc.). Of course there are also a plethora of garden-variety frauds as always,
ie., 10-B-5, insider trading, etc..
*(10-10-08)
Now to bring the initial check-kiting analogy closer to the current crisis,
realize as is the case of the worthless sub-prime securities, there is no
charge-off/debit as is ordinarily the case with a cleared check and the
worthless 'collateralized sub-prime security' is repackaged, resold,
recommissioned based upon (collateralized by) as collateral the original
worthless security which is in turn repackaged, resold, recommissioned based
upon as collateral the subsequent worthless security, and so on (a geometric
progression) to the tune of (hundreds of) trillions of this worthless,
fraudulent paper (blatent/flagrant securities fraud which must be prosecuted
and fraudulently derived profits disgorged).
THE BAILOUT FRAUD/SCAM
This is not brain surgery and the fraud,
bonuses/compensation (mortgages, subprime and otherwise, are only a relatively
small portion of the fraud / scam providing “cover / collateral” for the worthless
but heavily commissioned paper over and over again in a multiplicity of
different forms of worthless paper) in the mega-billions should first be
disgorged before taxpayers are forced to pony up and pay the frauds again for
their fraud which caused the problem in the first instance, must be prosecuted.
It should also be noted that despite the rhetoric, the wall street bailout
will NOT solve the crisis or eliminate the economic pain except to make
permanent the fraudulent wealth transfer to the most well healed
heals/frauds/criminals in the nation who caused the so-called crisis by their
greed/corruption/fraud.
Stocks
surge to highest level in nearly five months (Washington Post) [ Come on! The service sector? That
non-productive morass of paper pushin’, commissionin’, make-work sector, in an
election year no less, the impetus for a market rally along with Japan’s zero
interest rate prep for yet another lost decade … I don’t think so! What total
b*** s***.
Buyer anxiety mounts as
foreclosure deals freeze / Homeowners' dreams in limbo (Washington Post) [ Ah! That’s not so bad …
you know … being in limbo, that is …
after all, as the lobotomized VP Biden has warned, ‘Drudgereport: Biden: 'If We Lose, We're Going To Play Hell'..’
… so that place between heaven and hell (limbo) ain’t lookin’ so bad … compared
to hell that is.] While
impact of halted sales has been worse in regions where lenders need court
orders to seize homes, D.C. area market has also been affected.
Bulls Celebrate Bad News: Dave's Daily ‘The unemployment report came in "worse than expected"
but in this Orwellian environment when the mantra is: "good news is good
and bad news is better", well then, that's the way we roll. Bulls like the
notion of more QE, zero interest rates and Washington gridlock. As to the
latter, distrust of government competence and fiscal discipline has never been
more universal. So we rallied... However, things weren't all peaches and cream
since chip equipment maker Novellus (NVLS) issued a warning pulling down its
shares and dragging others down with it. And, while it may seem nice that many banks are halting
foreclosure procedures it really just postpones the inevitable and makes things
harder for shareholders--unless another bailout is in the works. Markets are
"forward-looking" and if the current theory holds, there must be a
lot of bad news ahead! …’
The
Real World vs. the Stock Market Reitmeister ‘September's Employment
Situation was worse than expected Friday morning. Yet bad news is good news
these days for those who think a second round of Fed quantitative easing (QE2)
will bolster the markets. So stocks bolted into positive territory on the day,
pushing up to Dow 11,000.
It’s
an odd dichotomy. We have a somewhat improving economy. Yet the average person
does not feel better about the situation. That’s because either they or someone
close to them is out of work. (The classic economic joke is that a Recession is
when your neighbor is out of work. A Depression is when you are.)
Along
these lines I noticed something odd today. I drove to my children’s school for
Parent-Teacher conferences. The school is 14 miles away along fairly busy roads.
On the route are three McDonalds. That sounds fairly normal. But then I saw
five Cash for Gold locations. Two of them are brand new; the other three came
around just over the past couple years.
Yes,
gold prices are high… but the real reason for the existence of these places is
for people to trade in family heirlooms for cash because they are going broke.
Then throw in all the vacant stores and it’s hard to get a sense that things
are truly getting better.
So
why are corporate profits going higher? Three main reasons:
1)
Major cost cutting. Mostly on the staffing side of the equation. So each dollar
in revenue produces more profit.
2)
Modestly improving US economy moves up revenue a bit. Combine that with #1
above and it creates attractive year over year profit growth.
3)
About half of US corporate profits these days come from overseas. Europe may be
weak, but growth in China, India, Brazil etc. more than makes up for that
shortfall.
This
is why healthy corporate profits and a rising stock market seem to be
disconnected from the realities in our own backyards. The good news is that
conditions in the US should keep modestly improving, which certainly bolsters
the case for the stock market going forward. Combine this with the alternatives
to the stock market right now are not attractive.
Holding
cash? No thanks.
Treasuries?
That bubble is going to pop sometime (and yes I would recommend buying TBF or TBT for when that party
takes place).
Gold?
That is getting frothy right now. I might be tempted to pick up some on a pull
back. But my history of trading gold is poor. In my long term account I’ve been
riding the bull rally since 2002 when prices were around $300 per ounce. Still
have plenty of shares on hand, mostly GDX (gold miners ETF).
There
is lots in store next week when earnings season heats up. If good results
combine with healthy guidance for the future, then the market will move to the
recent highs of Dow 11,300. If the results are poor, then we'll probably see a
retrace to the 50/200 day moving averages which are converged at around 10,500.
My bet is that we do make it to 11,300. I'm not expecting much beyond that til
next year.
My
Two Cents
During
the day I read many other investment articles of interest. Here are links to
some new ones with my two cents added underneath.
Rail
Traffic Maintains Year High Levels (Todd Sullivan)
There
are a lot of estimate increases recently for the major rails. This is a very
positive sign going into earnings season. I recently picked up some UNP because
of it. But no shame in CSX Corp. (CSX), Kansas City Southern (KSU),
Norfolk Southern (NSC) etc.
Gaining
Traction with Caterpillar? (Ray Merola)
All
the fundamentals are going right for them including the recent drop in the US
dollar making their exports more attractive. I personally prefer Cummins (CMI) and Joy
Global (JOYG).
But no shame in owning CAT.
We
Don't Need QE2 (Calafia Beach Pundit)
Agreed.
No shortage of money. And no person in their right mind would hold cash right
now if they felt there wasn't a better way to get a return. So if they are not
risking that money it's because the reward isn't there. That is the problem.
Disclosure: I own
shares in JOYG, CMI and UNP
Fed
weighs a more focused response (Washington Post) [ Yeah!
And, they better be quick about it because, when it comes to the fed, the
plethora of rumors of their imminent demise are NOT greatly exaggerated. Drudgereport: America on 'brink of a Second Revolution'... [This is more real than most people can imagine! ] The
Fed is dead, maybe by 2012 Paul B. Farrell - MarketWatch
ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) — ‘OK, so Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the “Black
Swan” author, actually said: “The Fed won’t exist in 25 years.” Warning: It’ll
happen much sooner, fallout of the coming Second American Revolution. It’s
inevitable: Wall Street banks control the Federal Reserve system , it’s their
personal piggy bank. They’ve already done so much damage, yet have more control
than ever. Tea-party
activists in their own words Tea-party activists talk to Russ Britt on
what their movement represents. Warning: That’s a set-up. They will eventually
destroy capitalism, democracy, and the dollar’s global reserve-currency status.
They will self-destruct before 2035 … maybe as early as 2012 … most likely by
2020. Last week we cheered the Tea Party for starting the countdown to the
Second American Revolution. Our timeline is crucial to understanding the
historic implications of Taleb’s prediction that the Fed is dying, that it’s
only a matter of time before a revolution triggers class warfare forcing
America to dump capitalism, eliminate our corrupt system of lobbying, come up
with a new workable form of government, and create a new economy without a
banking system ruled by Wall Street. Read
'America on the brink of a Second Revolution.' …’ ]As the Federal Reserve considers what steps it might take to try to
boost growth, attention has focused on whether the Fed might buy an enormous
quantity of bonds to flood the economy with some specific amount of money.
ADP Offered a Clear Warning for Friday's Jobs Report Kaminis ‘ADP offered its estimate of private nonfarm payrolls
Wednesday, but due to the proximity of the data to Friday's Labor Department
truth, and given recent comfort with the service sector, I think the market
overlooked a glaring warning signal.
ADP
Employment Services reported its data on September's private labor market
Wednesday, and the news was not good. The report covering the net change in the
private labor force serves as a precursor and predictor (for some) for the
Labor Department's Employment Situation Report.
September's
release showed a net decrease of 39,000 private nonfarm payrolls. The data only
offers an estimate really of a section of the Labor Market's aggregate data,
which will also contain public payroll changes.
There
is no economists' consensus forecast for the ADP report, and so less impetus
for market reaction on a higher or lower result. That said, September's news
compared against an increase of 10K jobs in August, revised from the initially
reported decrease of 10K. Also, it represented a change in direction (despite
August's initial negative), and followed seven consecutive months of positive
change in the private job market.
ADP
rightly notes that those last seven months of growth were negligible, but errs
in its determination that this change is therefore insignificant. Rather, the
change supports the market's worst fear, that the economy is paralyzed and
impotent without government stimulus.
ADP
also noted broad-based declines across industry sectors. There was one bright
spot, and it should be appreciated, because the dominant service-providing
sector showed an increase in payrolls of 6,000 in September, marking the eighth
consecutive monthly gain for the important segment. However, it was not enough
to offset an employment decline in the goods-producing sector of 45,000.
I
was first to point toward slippage in manufacturing, before there were any
signs of it, as I anticipated that panic induced production cuts and capacity
concentration would lead to a counter reaction to restock bare shelves (a
bounce before normalization to still poor sales levels); and I noted emerging
market demand continued. ADP estimates manufacturing employment declined by
17,000, the third consecutive monthly drop, and now the majority of gurus are
on board with my forecast for segment concentration.
ADP
says construction employment likely dropped by 28,000 during September, and
since there have been few projects underway in the residential arena, beware
commercial real estate investors. The financial services sector lost 13K jobs
in September; perhaps pre-bonus firings played a role here. The environment
favors the employer these days, and so few bonuses are secure… and fewer jobs.
Jobs
also dropped across all sizes of firms, marking an -11K change in large firms;
-14K in medium; and -14K in small firms. ADP's chart also seems to clearly
depict a double-dip, and though employment has been historically labeled a
lagging indicator, I continue to expect it to act as an anchor this time
around, due to the depth and degree of cuts. Further, advances in technology
have driven permanent job elimination, with the recession only applying
catalyst for the eventual reductions to efficient capacity.
I
reiterate (from my weekly copy) that since this estimate from ADP only precedes
the more important report by two days, it is limited in its impact potential
and rendered mute by the Labor Department's pending truth. Traders are waiting
the 48 hours before banking cash or putting it to work, as evidenced by the
Dow's fractional move Wednesday. However, if this data point was reported in
isolation, it would have weighed heavily on stocks Wednesday. In fact, I expect
confirmation of weakness by the Labor Department, barring weird
changes in the size of the labor force, will drive home this same message on
Friday. To spell it out, I think it's a short-term sell signal, and see the
slight Tuesday uptick in the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (with confirmation for
services here) too weak to hold against this weight of labor. Disclosure: No positions
Market
Outlook: It's Not, NOT a Growth Story Goldman ‘Yesterday’s miserable ADP data
blew up NASDAQ while the Dow eked out a small gain. The lesson? The recent
rally was driven BOTH by fundamentals (strong corporate cash flows and balance
sheets that benefit from low long-term interest rates) as well as the vain hope
that the economy would start growing again. The tech sector’s improvement
reflected the latter view. I don’t believe it, so I am staying away from tech
stocks, financials, retailers and so forth.
Quantitative
easing, once again, won’t create economic growth. It will just reprice assets.
In the Keynesian model, it is supposed to drive money out of safe-haven refuges
(which have a negative real return) and into brick-and-mortar and, presumably
job creation. What it does, in fact, is turn gold into a safe haven, and force
an increase in the savings rate! That’s because prospective pensioners who
thought they could retire with a 7% annuity are looking at a 4% annuity
instead. They simply have to save more, and that’s bad for consumption. The
cost of money isn’t the main obstacle to job creation. Obamacare and associated
regulatory burdens are the big problem.
The trouble is that the Fed is run by people who think that jobs are produced by mathematical equations, when they are in fact created by skill, guile, risk, and sleepless nights …’
U.S.
funds go to Taliban, warlords, report finds (Washington
Post) [ Well, defacto bankrupt america can afford it; after all, how much more
defacto bankrupt can the nation get? Well, then again, despite the headline, a
lot of those hundreds of billions are finding their way back into american
hands, albeit dirty ones, like, for example the 360 tons of hundred dollar
bills flown into Iraq and still unaccounted for, etc.. ]Military has minimal
knowledge of and virtually no control over thousands of Afghans it pays to guard
operating bases, bipartisan report finds.
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a
Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012). ]
Norcini,
Sinclair – Financial Hurricane To Collapse the System King World News
conducted an interview today that included comments from Jim Sinclair and Dan
Norcini regarding incredibly important events that are unfolding in both the
financial system and the gold and silver markets. This interview describes what
may very well bring the financial system to its knees.
National / World
First
Amendment Ruling Destined to Kill Internet Free Speech It now appears
certain the Supreme Court will rule against the First Amendment. “The justices
appeared inclined to set a limit to freedom of speech when ordinary citizens
are targeted with especially personal and hurtful attacks.
Unauthorized
US strike kills 4 Pakistanis A non-UN-sanctioned US strike on a house in
Pakistan’s tribal region of North Waziristan has killed four civilians and
injured two others.
Drudgereport: America
on 'brink of a Second Revolution'...
GALLUP: UNEMPLOYMENT ACTUALLY AT 10.1% … ( not counting the huge
‘stopped looking fudge factor which brings same to 20 plus percent )...
Government 'likely to understate' final report
before midterms...
Election
workers could skew job stats...
Job
losses in 2009 likely bigger than thought...
UN
warns of global unrest over unemployment...
GOLDMAN
SACHS: Economy 'fairly bad' or 'very bad' over next 6 – 9 months (years) ...
Food
Stamp Recipients at Record 41.8 Million Americans...
TIME
MAG: Anguish and Anxiety...
Fed
Officials Mull Inflation as a Fix…
Riiiiight! Sounds like a plan! ..
Dollar
slide continues...
89,000
stimulus payments went to dead people, prisoners...
OBAMA:
GOP takeover of Congress would mean 'hand-to-hand combat' … [ Ooooh! The fear
factor … Well, if wobama the b (for b*** s***) said it, it must be true …
riiiiight!] ...
DOZENS
FALL ILL AT OBAMA RALLY … [ Having Swallowed too Much Wobama B*** S*** … THAT’S
WHY]
Airstrike probe finds poor coordination between Pakistan, U.S. (Washington Post) [ Riiiiight! That coordination thing underlying those unfriendly-fire incidents and civilian deaths wherever american storm troopers happen to be … Eureka! And all this while everyone was thinking that the same was just typical americana! ]
Geithner
stokes world pressure on China over currency (Washington Post) [ I say,
‘Look Inward Hell’s Angels’! Is
America Under Attack … Or Are the Barbarians Inside the Gates? Infowars.com Congress and American economists
are blaming China for America’s economic woes. / Good advice from Farrel (infra) ‘Warning:
Never trust the American Treasury Secretary …Remember
Hank Paulson, Wall Street’s Trojan Horse inside Washington? Earlier he had made
over half a billion as Goldman’s CEO. Back in July 2007 before the meltdown he
bragged to Fortune that this is “the strongest global economy I’ve seen in my
business lifetime.” Never trust anything “leaders” like him say. Never.’ ( I
don’t believe anything they say! ) ]The U.S. is trying to escalate international pressure on China to
change how it manages its currency, casting a global focus on what U.S.
officials say has become a major risk to the economic recovery.
We Are Looking at Trillion-Dollar Annual Interest Payments on
U.S. Debt Owens ‘Last night I was reviewing the
Congressional Budget Office's recent outlook to get a handle on their
assumptions (I know, an exciting Monday night!) One of our astute readers
kicked off this exercise by taking a look at the government's debt and interest
rate projections out to 2015. The reader concluded that the call (by many) that
higher interest rates is an inevitability is incorrect. The reason being that
debt payments at higher interest rates would not be possible with debt levels
of this magnitude. As has been the case in Japan, rates HAVE to stay low, or
it'd be game over. More on this below. For starters, I'd like to review some of
the assumptions laid out by the CBO (whose projections are historically
inaccurate - usually comically so) to see how much risk and probability we have
to the downside. That is, both in terms of total debt, and interest payments on
that debt.
First
up - revenues and expenditures. The CBO says right now is as "bad as it's
gonna get" in terms of yearly deficits. From here we close the gap to
"more manageable" levels: (chart) This assumes low rates
until 2012, and rate hikes through 2015, that would bring the 3-month rate to
4.9%, and the 10-year rate to 5.9%: (chart) Source: Congressional
Budget Office One glaring problem with top-line estimates above is that the CBO
is projecting 4.1% GDP growth annually from 2012 through 2014:
Given its assumptions about fiscal
policy, CBO projects that real (inflation adjusted) gross domestic product will
increase by 2.8 percent between the fourth quarters of 2009 and 2010 and by 2.0
percent in 2011 (see Table 2-1). After 2011, the projected growth of real GDP
picks up, averaging 4.1 percent annually from 2012 through 2014 and closing the
gap between GDP and its potential level (the amount of production that
corresponds to a high rate of use of labor and capital resources) by the end of
2014 (see Figure 2-1).
Anyone want to take the other side of
that trade?
And here's my favorite:
The modest growth in output projected
for the next two years points to sluggish growth in employment during the
remainder of this year and next. Consequently, the unemployment rate in CBO’s
projections declines slowly, falling to 9.3 percent at the end of 2010 and 8.8
percent at the end of 2011 (see Figure 2-2 on page 32). After 2011, growth in
employment picks up along with growth in output, and the unemployment rate
declines more rapidly, reaching 5.1 percent at the end of 2014.
Be sure you view the projections below
with rose-colored glasses - otherwise, they may seem preposterous!
(chart) Source: Congressional Budget Office
Nevermind the legions of
"underemployed" though - apparently even the CBO didn't have the
stomach to spin the future of this disastrous runaway train: (chart)
If we, for sake of argument, accept the above projections at face-value, then
we are looking at annual interest payments that will head towards $1 trillion
dollars by the end of the decade: (chart) Source: NPR.org
Which is ugly, but not "end of the world" ugly. The debt holds
at approximately 67% of GDP - which is not quite in "default
red-zone" territory. Though you can see, a few tweaks to the formula, and
we're likely right there.
For a good expert perspective, NPR article quotes Kenneth Rogoff of This Time is Different fame - who concurs with
our questioning of these assumptions:
CBO's projections actually rest on
fairly optimistic assumptions about growth and interest. Under not particularly
fanciful alternative scenarios, annual debt payments could turn out to be more
like $1.5 trillion, says Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard University economist.
Rogoff, whose work on the history of
financial crises is widely cited, doesn't think the U.S. would face a crisis
akin to the one currently ravaging Greece and threatening to spread across
Europe. Still, it won't be pretty.
"In Greece, it's happening faster
than you can blink," he says. "In the U.S., it would be interest
rates rising painfully and slowly over several years. We would adjust, but that
doesn't mean it's not going to be painful and slow our growth."
Rates rising "painfully and
slowly" is certainly a departure from the bond vigilantes of the 1970's
riding back into town to extract pain and misery from the irresponsible
spending Federal government. Then again, as mentioned above, it probably must
be a slower feast, otherwise the entire host would be killed if interest rates
spiked severely, which would signify GAME OVER
In conclusion, we can probably figure that government assumptions are
too rosy - debt levels are going to be greater than advertised. Which means that
capping interest rates is going to be extremely important to the Federal
government.
Can they do it - or at least kick the
can way down the road, like Japan's been able to do (so far)?
Big
hat tip to our correspondent Dr. Evil for contributing to this story! Disclosure:
No position’
Tea-party activists talk to Russ Britt on what their
movement represents. Warning: That’s a set-up. They will eventually destroy
capitalism, democracy, and the dollar’s global reserve-currency status. They
will self-destruct before 2035 … maybe as early as 2012 … most likely by 2020.
Last week we cheered the Tea Party for starting the countdown to the Second
American Revolution. Our timeline is crucial to understanding the historic implications
of Taleb’s prediction that the Fed is dying, that it’s only a matter of time
before a revolution triggers class warfare forcing America to dump capitalism,
eliminate our corrupt system of lobbying, come up with a new workable form of
government, and create a new economy without a banking system ruled by Wall
Street.
Read
'America on the brink of a Second Revolution.'
Let’s reexamine the timeline closely:
Stage 1: The Democrats just put the nail in their coffin confirming they’re
wimps when they refused to force the GOP to filibuster Bush tax cuts for
billionaires.
Stage 2: In the elections the GOP takes over the House, expanding its strategic
war to destroy Obama with its policy of “complete gridlock” and “shutting down
government.”
Stage 3: Post-election Obama goes lame-duck, buried in subpoenas and vetoes.
Stage 4: In 2012, the GOP wins back the White House and Senate. Health care returns
to insurers. Free-market financial deregulation returns. Lobbyists intensify
their anarchy.
Stage 5: Before the end of the second term of the new GOP president, Washington
is totally corrupted by unlimited, anonymous donations from billionaires and
lobbyists. Wall Street’s Happy Conspiracy triggers the third catastrophic
meltdown of the 21st century that Robert Shiller of “Irrational Exuberance”
fame predicts, resulting in defaults of dollar-denominated debt and the
dollar’s demise as the world’s reserve currency.
Stage 6: The Second American Revolution explodes into a brutal full-scale class
war with the middle class leading a widespread rebellion against the
out-of-touch, out-of-control Happy Conspiracy sabotaging America from within.
Stage 7: The domestic class warfare is exaggerated as the Pentagon’s global
warnings play out: That by 2020 “an ancient pattern of desperate, all-out wars
over food, water, and energy supplies would emerge” worldwide and “warfare is
defining human life.”
In this rapidly unfolding scenario, the Fed cannot
survive. Why? Not because the Fed is at the center of America’s economic
problems, beyond repair, a dying institution. But because the Fed is a pawn of
Wall Street’s Happy Conspiracy, which is incapable of seeing the train wreck
that it set up. This out-of-control, conspiracy of greedy Wall Street bankers,
corporate CEOs, corrupt politicians and Forbes 400 billionaires will, in the
near future, trigger the third catastrophic meltdown of the 21st century, a
collapse that paradoxically can transform America into a new, stronger
post-capitalist economy … but only after a revolution and brutal class warfare.
But few will talk about what’s coming.
Warning: Never trust the American Treasury Secretary
So who can you trust to tell us the truth? Taleb says it’s very simple. His
“simple metric” was made clear at a recent “Washington Ideas Forum” in a piece
by Atlantic editor Nicole Allan: Unfortunately most fail Taleb’s test. Most get
it wrong. Many lie, exaggerate, speak half-truths or, worse, say nothing.
Here’s Taleb’s “simple metric for judging whose economic opinions are worth his
time: ‘Did someone predict the crisis before it happened” in the past? “If the
answer is no, I don’t want to hear what the person says. If the person saw the
crisis coming then I want to hear what they have to say” about future crises.
Taleb target No. 1: Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, who spoke just before
Taleb at the forum. Of course, experience tells us you really can’t trust
anyone in government. All politicians fudge the numbers, cherry-pick data to
suit their personal goals, biases and political rhetoric. Remember Hank Paulson, Wall Street’s Trojan Horse inside
Washington? Earlier he had made over half a billion as Goldman’s CEO. Back in
July 2007 before the meltdown he bragged to Fortune that this is “the strongest
global economy I’ve seen in my business lifetime.” Never trust anything
“leaders” like him say. Never.’ [ I don’t believe anything any of them says! ]
Jobs
Growth Stalled and New Fed Polices Wont Help
Goldman
Sachs Says U.S. Economy May Be `Fairly Bad’ Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said
the U.S. economy is likely to be “fairly bad” or “very bad” over the next six
to nine months.
Rally
Stalls As Private Payrolls Dip
Market
Warning: Danger, Will Robinson! Cam Hui ‘I have learned over the years that my underlying
investment outlook has a Value bias and that I suffer from the curse of Value
investors everywhere by being too early. Often, I have found myself fighting
the trend and underperforming as a result. One of the tools that I have used to
mitigate that effect is to look for inflection points in sentiment and
momentum.
First of all, I agree with John
Hussman that the US economy appears to be deteriorating (and he
writes much more eloquently than I do). So far, the stock market hasn't paid
much attention to those risks and is in fact probing new highs as I write this.
However, the inflection point may be arriving. Bloomberg reports that the Street is now
cutting S&P 500 earnings estimates:
For the first time in more than a year
analysts are cutting their forecasts for Standard & Poor’s 500 Index
earnings, jeopardizing gains from the biggest September rally since World War
II.
Estimates for S&P 500 companies’ combined 2011 profit fell as low as $95.17
last month from an August high of $96.16 and posted the first quarterly
reduction since the three months ended June 2009, according to more than 8,500
analyst forecasts tracked by Bloomberg. The revision came as the benchmark
gauge for U.S. equities rose 8.8 percent last month, the largest September
advance since 1939.
Moreover, the number of new highs aren't expanding despite the strength in the
averages: (chart) Just as the bulls appear to be taking control, I am put in
the position of the robot in the old TV series Lost in Space as I
warn: "Danger! Will Robinson! Danger!" ‘
Drudgereport:
Private
Sector Hiring in Sept. Falls 39,000...
POLL:
Working-class whites shun Dems...
Middle
Class Slams Brakes on Spending...
Food
Stamp Recipients at Record 41.8 Million Americans...
GOLDMAN
SACHS: Economy 'fairly bad' or 'very bad' over next 6 – 9 months (years) ...
New
Yorkers' Income Falls for 1st Time in 70 Years...
Greek
debt and deficit figures 'to shoot up'...
Ireland's
debt ratings cut...
Judges
rule without title, lenders can't foreclose (Washington Post) [ Rules of law? I didn’t think
they cared. That’s certainly the direct experience I’ve had with the
pervasively corrupt american legal / judicial system (along with the other two
branches of the u.s. government and defact bankrupt america generally). Court
decisions could call into doubt the ownership of mortgages, raising urgent
challenges for both the real estate market, wider financial system. Connecticut,
California join probe of Ally (Washington Post) [I’d be much more impressed if they initiated a probe of more
readily discernible criminal offenses in violation of the RICO Act http://albertpeia.com Frauds/Liars
(sic-lawyers)Covering Up for Other Frauds/Liars (sic-lawyers). In Productive
Societies as China, Japan, etc., Fraudulent Liars (sic-lawyers) and the
Fraudulent u.s. System They're a Part of Are Unheard Of/Non-existent. List of
Files Regarding Filed Attorney Grievance Against Fraud coan et als Or Here For A Clearer View Of
Filed
Grievance Complaint, Response, Exhibits, and Related RICO Filings Note the Committee of
Frauds/Liars (sic-lawyers). Included are DOJ Rep., State Court Rep., State
Atty. General Office Rep., and even a Vegetable Garden yale law prof who
probably never practiced law in his life. How Pathetic! http://albertpeia.com/fbiofficela91310
] Justice:
FBI improperly opened probes
(Washington Post) [ I just hope
they’re as zealous (in probing readily discernible crime) with regard to my
RICO matters and the corruption in the (judicial / legal) process since, in the
final analysis, it will have been the corruption within that will have brought
the nation down irrevocably and totally.
October
5, 2010 (*see infra)
Steven M. Martinez,
Assistant Director In Charge
Federal Bureau of Investigation, USDOJ
11000 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 1700
Dear Sir:
I enclose herewith 3
copies of the within DVD rom autorun disk (which will open in your computer’s
browser) as per your office’s request as made this day (the disk and contents
have been scanned by Avast, McAfee, and Norton which I’ve installed on my
computer to prevent viral attacks / infection and are without threat). I also
include 1 copy of the DVD as filed with the subject court as referenced therein
(which files are also included on the aforesaid 3 disks in a separate folder
named ‘112208opocoan’). The (civil) RICO action (as you’re aware, the RICO Act
is a criminal statute which provides a civil remedy, including treble damages
and attorney fees, as an incentive for private prosecution of said claims
probably owing to the fact that the USDOJ seems somewhat overwhelmed and in
need of such assistance given the seriousness and prevalence of said violations
of law which have a corrupting influence on the process, and which corruption
is pervasive). A grievance complaint against Coan was also filed concurrently
with the subject action and held in abeyance pending resolution of the action
which was illegally dismissed without any supporting law and in contravention
of the Order of The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge, USDC, District
Connecticut. The files below the horizontal rule are the referenced documents
as filed. (Owing to the damage to the financial interests of both the U.S. and
the District of Congresswoman Roybal-Allard, viz., Los Angeles, the
Qui Tam provisions of the Federal
False Claims Act probably would apply and I would absent resolution seek to
refer the within to a firm with expertise in that area of the law with which I
am not familiar).
The document in 5 pages under penalty of
perjury I was asked to forward to the FBI office in New Haven is probably the
best and most concise summary of the case
RICO Summary
to FBI Under Penalty of Perjury at Their Request (5 pages) [
ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf ].
The correspondence I
received from the Congresswoman by way of email attachment (apparent but
typical problem with my mail) along with my response thereto is included on the
3 disks as fbicorrespondencereyes.htm .
With regard to the calls to the FBI’s LA and New Haven, CT offices:
There was one call to the LA office and I was referred to the Long Beach, CA
office where I personally met with FBI Agent Jeff Hayes to whom I gave
probative evidentiary documents of the money laundering which he confirmed as
indicative of same (he was transferred from said office within approximately a
month of said meeting and his location was not disclosed to me upon inquiry).
The matter was assigned to FBI Agent Ron Barndollar and we remained in touch
for in excess of a decade until he abruptly retired (our last conversation
prior to his retirement related to the case and parenthetically, Rudy Giuliani
whose father I stated had been an enforcer for the mob to which he registered
disbelief and requested I prove it, which I did – he served 12 years in prison,
aggravated assault/manslaughter? – and no, there is no Chinese wall of
separation – Andrew Maloney’s the one that prosecuted gotti).
In contradistinction
to the statement in said correspondence, there is a plethora of information
including evidence supporting the claims set forth in the RICO
VERIFIED COMPLAINT
(see infra). Such includes and as set forth in the case, inter alia,
There is applicable insurance / surety coverage and neither LA, nor
creditors, nor I should continue to have been damaged by this brazened corrupt
and illegal scenario, which should be resolved in accordance with the
meaningful rules of law apposite thereto.
Sincerely,
Albert L. Peia
611 E. 5th Street, #404
Los Angeles, CA 90013
(213) ******* (cell phone)
(213) 622-3745 (listed land line but there are unresolved problems with
the line, computer connection may be the reason but I hesitate to chance
greater non-performance / worsening by their ‘fix’ so cell phone best for
contact).
----------
*The foregoing and as
indicated therein was previously send 9-14-10 but delivery confirmation was
flawed as set forth below and my inquiries to the u.s. postal service rebuffed
(I believe tampered with inasmuch as your office could not locate same). This
cover letter (9-13-10) is on the 3 disks with navigable hyperlinks to the
subject files for ease of reference, including the files in the RICO action as
indicated.
-----
Label/Receipt Number:
0310 1230 0000 0862 8183
Expected Delivery
Date: September 15, 2010
Class: Priority Mail®
Service(s): Delivery
Confirmation™
Status: Delivered
Your item was
delivered at 10:14 am on September 15, 2010 in LOS ANGELES, CA 90024.
Track and
Confirm
Enter Label/Receipt Number.
Enter Label / Receipt
Number.
Detailed
Results:
Bullet Delivered, September 15, 2010, 10:14 am, LOS
ANGELES, CA 90024
Bullet Arrival at Post Office, September 15, 2010,
4:12 am, LOS ANGELES, CA 90024
Bullet Processed through Sort Facility, September 14,
2010, 8:29 pm, LOS ANGELES, CA 90052
Bullet Acceptance, September 14, 2010, 4:04 pm, LOS
ANGELES, CA 90017
----
Sent Postage Prepaid: United States Mail - VIA Priority
Mail, Delivery Confirmation and VIA Certified Mail this 5th day of October,
2010.
Signed: ___________________________________
Albert L. Peia
• Audio: Obama on terrorism tactics
A subtler tack to fight Afghan corruption?
(Washington
Post) [ How about a not so subtler tack
to fight corruption starting right here in the u.s. of a. where corruption and
crime are pervasive and in fact, at the root of the Afghanistan problems, from
american reinvigorated heroin trade to bribery attendant thereto to killing
civilians, etc.. Defacto Bankrupt, Meaningfully Lawless,
War Criminal Nation america, the leader of nations … in crime:
Though having but 5% of the world’s population, america can
boast 76% of the world’s serial killers, followed by Europe with England/UK
then Germany leading the way for the eu [excerpt, 6 minute video, Serial
Killers: Real Life Hannibal Lechters http://www.albertpeia.com/realifeamericaserialkillers.mpg (as is consistent with crime generally,
see infra)]. Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive
(defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of
the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern
emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed
employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in
this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense
( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
) ]:
Rank |
|||
# 1
|
11,877,218 |
|
|
# 2
|
6,523,706 |
|
|
# 3
|
6,507,394 |
|
… ]
Go to following pages for
above links:
http://www.albertpeia.com/currentopics2ndqtr10108.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com
http://www.scribd.com/alpeia
http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm
You may post a comment on my blog on any
topic: http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com
Good
Economic News Is OK, Bad News Is Better for the Market By Adam Sharp
‘Markets have reached a point where fundamentals don't matter much. These days,
when nasty economic data comes out, stocks are more likely to rise than they
are to fall. Why? Because ugly data means the Fed is likely to
"ease" further — i.e. pump more cash into the economy. That money
inevitably finds its way into the markets. The logic is perverse; but to be a
successful investor today, you need to focus more on what the Fed is up to than
anything fundamental. Morgan Stanley's Jim Caron summed it up nicely in a
recent note
to clients:
Investment decisions across many asset classes today
are tantamount to an educated guess on what the Fed decides to do regarding QE.
In the near-term this trumps fundamentals, valuations and almost
everything else.
If you believe in any sort of free market, it's all
very frustrating to watch. This market is dependent on a few bank-biased
individuals — not ideal, to say the least. But there is a bright spot in this
mess: precious metals, of course. Gold, silver, palladium, and
platinum have all benefited from the Fed's quantitative easing (QE) experiment.
The rationale for owning these assets is simple: If you believe the Fed will
print more money, you should buy
physical PMs and miners.Major inflation doesn't even need to occur for gold
to rise. As long as the Feds keep eroding the dollar's purchasing power and
running huge deficits, gold and other metals should perform well. Back in
December of 2009 — in a piece called "Why I'm
Buying the Gold Dips" — I wrote, "There's simply no way the Fed
can stop propping up the market." Gold was trading around $1065 then, and
it's over $1300 today. The long-PM strategy has worked for years, and I don't
see that changing in the near future. Budget woes and financial uncertainty
aren't going away any time soon, so precious metals should continue to
outperform. Especially now that QE 2.0 is beginning to be accepted as
inevitable. Analysts are finally realizing that deflation will not be allowed
to occur. The Fed printing presses are just warming up... They will continue to
devalue the dollar, goose the stock market, and monetize America's debt for as
long as they can get away with it. Like I said, it's not ideal. But it's the
hand we've been dealt. Precious metals remain a great way to play it.’
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a
Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012). ]
Fed, ECB throwing world into chaos: Stiglitz (Reuters) By Walter Brandimarte NEW YORK (Reuters) – Ultra-loose monetary policies by
the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are throwing the world into
"chaos" rather than helping the global economic recovery, Nobel
Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said on Tuesday.A "flood
of liquidity" from the Fed and the ECB is bringing instability to
foreign-exchange markets, forcing countries such as Japan and Brazil to defend
its exporters, Stiglitz told reporters in a conference at Columbia
University."The irony is that the Fed is creating all this liquidity with
the hope that it will revive the American economy," Stiglitz said.
"It's doing nothing for the American economy, but it's causing chaos over
the rest of the world. It's a very strange policy that they are
pursuing."The U.S. dollar has weakened about 6.5 percent against a basket of major currencies since the beginning
of September as prospects for further monetary easing by the Fed have led
investors to seek higher returns elsewhere.That flow of dollars caused
currencies to appreciate in many emerging market countries such as Brazil,
which offers strong growth prospects. The Japanese yen has also hit record highs against the dollar on expectation
of additional greenback weakness.Recent actions by those countries to curb the
strength of their currency were "necessary," Stiglitz
added."It's natural in that context for them to say -- we can't just let
our exchange rates appreciate and destroy our exports," he said.On Monday,
Brazil doubled a tax on foreign investment into local government bonds, while Japan lowered the target for its benchmark
interest rate to a range between zero and 0.1 percent.The Bank of Japan also
pledged to buy 5 trillion yen ($60 billion) worth of assets, in a strategy
similar to the one adopted by the Fed to pump funds into the economy.But
additional monetary stimulus will "clearly" not solve the problems
caused by lack of global aggregate demand, Stiglitz said."Lowering the
interest rates may help a little bit, but that's much too weak to address the
problems facing the United States and Europe," Stiglitz said. "We need
fiscal stimulus."(Reporting by Walter Brandimarte; Editing by Jan Paschal)
National / World
Drudgereport: America on 'brink of a Second
Revolution'...
UN warns of global unrest
over unemployment...
Manhattan Office Vacancy Rate
Hits Six-Year High...
Super-rich investors buy gold
by ton... Per ounce price tops
$1,340...
Mondale: Obama's
teleprompters are 'idiot boards'... Video...
GALLUP RACE DIVIDE: OBAMA
APPROVAL 91% WITH BLACKS, 36% WITH WHITES AND EVERYBODY ELSE ...
Christine O'Donnell Ad: 'I Am
Not A Witch' … [ just a crazy b**ch ] ...
World Economy 'Decoupling
From USA'...
IMF admits West stuck in
near-depression...
The Calm Before the Stock Market Storm Wall Street Sector Selector
‘ … What It All Means In three words, “more pain ahead.” We unfortunately have a
long road ahead as a country and as investors and try as they might, the best
the powers that be can hope to do is kick the can down the road, as the old
saying goes. Herbert Hoover, “the father” of the Great Depression learned this
lesson and our current leaders should listen to his voice of experience: “Economic
depression cannot be cured by legislative action or executive pronouncement.
Economic wounds must be healed by the action of the cells of the economic body
– the producers and consumers themselves.” We will heal but it’s going
to take some time and much more pain. Over the last few weeks we’ve been in
the “calm before the storm.” The storm is about to hit and will either take us
to higher ground and safety or into a vortex of volatility and asset destruction.
Wall Street Sector Selector remains in the “red flag” mode, expecting
stormy weather and lower prices ahead. …’
The
Claim That This Was the Best September Since 1939 Is False Short ‘… Here are some questions you might
ask if you want to thoroughly understand what has been repeated on TV and in
the print media during the last couple of days that is absolutely false and
purposely designed to make you feel bullish. Why is anyone claiming September
gained more than any other September since 1939, especially since that claim is
not only technically false and very misleading, but constitutes disinformation
when they learn the actual facts? …’
Nouriel Roubinis Talk at Googles Zeitgeistminds Harrison ‘Chrystia
Freedland introduces Dr. Roubini, reminding him that he is still known as Dr.
Doom. She quips he should wear the name with pride because he was "one of
the very few economists who was actually right about the crisis." This reminds
me of Nassim Taleb who said recently that we
shouldn’t listen to anything Tim Geithner and Paul Krugman have to say
since they were blind-sided by the crisis. PBS’ Paul Solman once called Taleb
and Roubini collectively "The
Bon Vivants of Doom And Gloom."I kind of like that one better. P.S.
Irving Fisher never called the Great Crash and Depression. In fact, he is
famous for talking about a "permanently high plateau" just before
things fell apart. But Fisher still made a positive contribution to our
understanding of the situation with his Debt-Deflation
Theory of Great Depressions. Just sayin’. In any event, here is
Nouriel Roubini’s talk. If you’ve heard his economic forecasts before, there is
nothing new here. But the clip runs just over 20 minutes and gives you a more
expansive understanding of why he sees the global economy as still in a world
of hurt …’
Dick Bové: Run For Your
Lives ‘Absolutely certain usa will have another economic meltdown requiring
another TARP-like solution (bailout)’
Wall
Street Sees World Economy Decoupling From U.S. Bloomberg | Underpinning their
analysis is the view that international reliance on U.S. trade has diminished
and is too small to spread the lingering effects of America’s housing bust.
9-13-10
Steven M. Martinez,
Assistant Director In Charge
Federal Bureau of Investigation, USDOJ
11000 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 1700
Los Angeles, CA 90024
Dear Sir:
I enclose herewith 3
copies of the within DVD rom autorun disk (which will open in your computer’s
browser) as per your office’s request as made this day (the disk and contents
have been scanned by Avast, McAfee, and Norton which I’ve installed on my
computer to prevent viral attacks / infection and are without threat). I also
include a copy of the DVD as filed with the subject court as referenced therein
(which files are also included on the aforesaid 3 disks in a separate folder
named ‘112208opocoan’)…
The (civil) RICO action (as you’re aware, the
RICO Act is a criminal statute which provides a civil remedy, including treble
damages and attorney fees, as an incentive for private prosecution of said
claims probably owing to the fact that the USDOJ seems somewhat overwhelmed and
in need of such assistance given the seriousness and prevalence of said
violations of law which have a corrupting influence on the process, and which
corruption is pervasive). A grievance complaint against Coan was also filed
concurrently with the subject action and held in abeyance pending resolution of
the action which was illegally dismissed without any supporting law and in
contravention of the Order of The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge,
USDC, District Connecticut. The files below the horizontal rule are the
referenced documents as filed. (Owing to the damage to the financial interests
of both the U.S. and the District of Congresswoman Roybal-Allard, viz., Los Angeles,
the Qui
Tam provisions of the Federal False Claims Act probably would apply and
I would absent resolution seek to refer the within to a firm with expertise in
that area of the law with which I am not familiar).
The
document in 5 pages under penalty of perjury I was asked to forward to the FBI
office in New Haven is probably the best and most concise summary of the
case RICO
Summary to FBI Under Penalty of Perjury at Their Request (5 pages) [ http://albertpeia.com/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf (
http://albertpeia.com/fbiofficela91310 )
].
The correspondence I
received from the Congresswoman by way of email attachment (apparent but
typical problem with my mail) along with my response thereto is included on the
3 disks as fbicorrespondencereyes.htm . With regard to the
calls to the FBI’s LA and New Haven, CT offices: There was one call to the LA
office and I was referred to the Long Beach, CA office where I personally met
with FBI Agent Jeff Hayes to whom I gave probative evidentiary documents of the
money laundering which he confirmed as indicative of same (he was transferred
from said office within approximately a month of said meeting and his location
was not disclosed to me upon inquiry).
The matter was assigned to FBI Agent Ron Barndollar and we remained in
touch for in excess of a decade until he abruptly retired (our last
conversation prior to his retirement related to the case and parenthetically,
Rudy Giuliani whose father I stated had been an enforcer for the mob to which
he registered disbelief and requested I prove it, which I did – he served 12
years in prison, aggravated assault/manslaughter? – and no, there is no Chinese
wall of separation – Andrew Maloney’s the one that prosecuted gotti).
In contradistinction to
the statement in said correspondence, there is a plethora of information
including evidence supporting the claims set forth in the RICO
VERIFIED COMPLAINT (see infra). Such includes and as set forth
in the case, inter alia,
There
is applicable insurance / surety coverage and neither LA, nor creditors, nor I
should continue to have been damaged by this brazened corrupt and illegal
scenario, which should be resolved in accordance with the meaningful rules of
law apposite thereto.
Sincerely,
Albert
L. Peia
611
E. 5th Street, #404
Los
Angeles, CA 90013
(213)
******** (cell phone)
(213)
622-3745 (listed land line but there are unresolved problems with the line,
computer connection may be the reason but I hesitate to chance greater
non-performance / worsening by their ‘fix’ so cell phone best for contact).
• Audio:
Obama on terrorism tactics
A subtler tack to fight Afghan corruption?
(Washington Post) [ How
about a not so subtler tack to fight corruption starting right here in the u.s.
of a. where corruption and crime are pervasive and in fact, at the root of the
Afghanistan problems, from american reinvigorated heroin trade to bribery
attendant thereto to killing civilians, etc..
Defacto
Bankrupt, Meaningfully Lawless, War Criminal Nation america, the leader of
nations … in crime:
Though having but 5% of the world’s population, america can
boast 76% of the world’s serial killers, followed by Europe with England/UK
then Germany leading the way for the eu [excerpt, 6 minute video, Serial
Killers: Real Life Hannibal Lechters http://www.albertpeia.com/realifeamericaserialkillers.mpg (as is consistent with crime generally,
see infra)]. Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive
(defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of
the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern
emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed
employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in
this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense
( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
) ]:
Rank |
|||
# 1 |
11,877,218 |
|
|
# 2 |
6,523,706 |
|
|
# 3 |
6,507,394 |
|
… ]
Go to following pages for
above links:
http://www.albertpeia.com/currentopics2ndqtr10108.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com
http://www.scribd.com/alpeia
http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm
]
October Topples The 'New Bull
Market?' , On Friday October 1, 2010, 7:58 pm
‘Talk
about a two-faced month. On one hand, October has a nasty reputation of
delivering market crashes, like in 1929, 1987 and 2008. On the other hand,
October ushers in the sweet spot of the presidential election year cycle. Gains
starting in the mid-term fourth quarter (2010) lasting until the pre-election
first quarter (2011) have averaged around 15% since 1950.
Since
the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declared the 'Great Recession'
to have ended in June 2009, we'll use some of NBER's criteria to examine the
market's risks and potential.
What's a Recession?
Here's
how NBER defines recession: 'A recession is a period between a peak and a
trough. During a recession, a significant decline in economic activity spreads
across the economy and can last from a few months to more than a year.'
Aha,
so economic activity is the key to declaring the onset and end of a recession.
So what is the definition of economic activity? Again, this excerpt is directly
from the NBER website:
'The
Committee does not have a fixed definition of economic activity. It examines
and compares the behavior of various measures of broad activity: real GDP
measured on the product and income sides, economy-wide employment, and real
income. The Committee also may consider indicators that do not cover the entire
economy, such as real sales and the Federal Reserve's index of industrial
production.'
Recession Over - Really?
Ok,
so let's look at a few of the indictors NBER uses to determine economic
activity:
Unemployment:
In June 2009, 16.5% of American were jobless. In August 2010, 16.7% of
Americans were jobless. If the candor of those numbers surprises you, it's
based on the U-6 figures published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Even the
more commonly known U-3 number increased from 9.5% in June 2009 to 9.6% in
August 2010.
Real
income: According to a new study released by the Census Bureau, 1 in 7
Americans lives in poverty. The overall poverty rate climbed to 14.3% or 43.6
million people, the highest since the 1960s. The poverty level for 2009 was set
at $21,954 for a family of four. Imagine what the poverty rate would be
if these households weren't receiving continually extended unemployment checks.
GDP:
Just a few weeks ago, the government revised - in this context revised means
lowered - the GDP numbers for 2007, 2008 and 2009. GDP for 2007 was revised
down from 2.5% growth to 2.3%. The 2008 decrease was lowered from 1.9% to 2.8%
and 2009 growth was revised up from a 0.1% to a 0.2% increase.
If
you feel that a 0.2% year-over-year 'bounce' in GDP is enough to usher in a new
bull market, a revisit in economics 101 is advised.
The
chart below plots the S&P 500 against various economic indicators. The grey
line marks the post-June 2009 recession period. [chart]
Dare to be Different
For
obvious reasons, the government and Wall Street would like us to believe that
the stock market rally is a reflection of an economy gathering steam. Even most
of the media is convinced that's the case and we are encouraged not to doubt
them.
So,
dare we consider facts and developments that might derail this post-recession
bull market? Yes, even at the risk of being considered party poopers, dare we
do!
Change of Perception
Perception
is probably the most persuasive and least reliable force to influence our
decisions. Like a caterpillar, perception morphs from its humble beginning as a
disrespected and misunderstood line of reasoning to a popular and
crowd-pleasing mass movement.
For
example, the March 2, 2009 buy alert by the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter was
met with mockery and disbelief. A year later, this once scorned idea had
morphed into a movement with mass appeal.
By
April 2010, there was no question that the bull market was over. In fact, by
many measures, investors were more optimistic about American's future prospects
than in the year 2000 or 2007.
Two
weeks before the April 2010 high watermark was reached, the ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter warned: 'The message conveyed by the composite bullishness is unmistakable
bearish.' Since the May 6 'Flash Crash' we've been caught up in a roller
coaster of emotions as the market zigzagged from support to resistance.
The
final jury is still out on what's next, but we know that perception can change
at a whim. Don't misinterpret the current bullishness as a reliable buy signal.
A Dangerous Apple
Apple
might very well be the most influential company on the planet today. Why?
Apple
has a 20.32% weighting in the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: QQQQ
- News)
and 12% weighting in tech sector ETFs (NYSEArca: IYW
- News).
As
Apple goes, so goes the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC). If the high beta Nasdaq is up,
the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI), Russell 2000 (Chicago Options:
^RUT), and others often follow.
Apple
(NasdaqGS: AAPL - News)
has a market cap of $264 billion, 20% bigger than Microsoft. Yet, Apple carries
a 5x bigger weight in the Nasdaq than Microsoft.
This
lack of 'weight management' is due to an oddity that goes back to the late
1990s when the QQQs were launched. Back then a mechanism was put into place to
keep Microsoft, which often accounted for 30 - 35% of the Nasdaq, below the 25%
threshold (important for tax purposes).
Since
then, Microsoft's weighting has been systematically and consistently reduced,
while Apple has yet to reach the 25% level before experiencing a similar fate.
Regardless,
if Apple sneezes, the market gets a cold. Since its 2009 low, Apple has rallied
nearly 300%. The advance since late August is the steepest leg of the
rally. The stock has been trading above its upper acceleration band for
over three weeks and is extremely overbought.
A Rotten Bunch of Apples?
Apple
moved from the status of underdog to top dog. The problem with being the top
dog is that expectations become higher and higher. There comes a saturation
point where expectations simply can't be met anymore. At that point, the stock
price has nowhere to go but down.
After
selling more than several million new iPhones and iPads, one has to wonder if
Apple can keep up this pace of sales in an obviously deteriorating economy.
And, if and when Apple sneezes ...
Of
course a spoiled Apple is not the only danger than may befall Wall Street. A
return of reality would be enough to pummel stocks.
In
fact, knowing that NBER likes to take its time when declaring the beginning and
end of recessions, we might already be in the next recession and not even know
it.
Over
the next few months investors will have to navigate through a maze of
conflicting currents. October for example, is one of the best months of the
year. October, however, has also a reputation of ushering in bear markets.
The
fourth quarter of the mid-term election year is the sweet spot of the
Presidential Election year cycle, while the still looming Hindenburg Omen and
other prominent sell signals contradict this long-standing bullish seasonality.
To
navigate such treacherous waters, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
provides safety and target levels that help narrow down the market's path,
along with the ultimate target range and semi-weekly updates.’
It's October: Should We Be Scared? [ In this over-priced, over-valued,
over-bought market, be scared … be very scared! ] Slusiewicz ‘The month of October conjures up
thoughts of market crashes and other frightful events. As we start the fourth
quarter investors are wondering about the near term direction for the markets –
are we dressed as bulls or bears? There are many factors that will come in
play, that should clear up that picture very shortly. Make no mistake about it,
regardless of whether you are a bull or a bear -we are extended and extended
big time right here and now. I believe we will have some sort of correction in
the near term. Its how deep and what follows that correction that matters most.
The
markets staged a big run-up for the month of September. It was the best
September since 1939. What happened after that run-up in 1939? Well it took
until January 1945 to get back to those levels. If you recall your history –
World War II may have had something to do with declines over that duration and
I’m not predicting the next world war. However, there does appear to be a
contest that is going on between countries across the globe to see who can
devalue their currency the most and the fastest.
It
appears that the US is winning the race to devalue its dollar. The stock market
seems to leading the cheer for this catastrophe to happen. As the dollar
declines the goods manufactured by US multinational companies are more
competitive overseas. Also repatriation of foreign currencies back into US
dollars can be a profitable endeavor, enhancing corporate profits as our money
weakens. Oil back over $80 a barrel is another by product of a weak currency.
The US consumes half the gasoline in the world. We’re pretty much a captive
market for the foreign oil producing nations. As our money’s purchasing power
declines – they demand more dollars to make up the shortfall – because they
can! Is higher oil and a weaker dollar good for the average American?
According
to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission the bullish sentiment for the US
dollar is close to 0%. We, as Americans, can only hope that sentiment acts as a
contrary indicator and the dollar starts to rally soon. Gold is giving all
global currencies a thumbs down. Central Banks across the globe are trying to
devalue their own currency, by printing more green, red, or orange dollars in
their own countries flavor and using their freshly minted currency as bailout
money. With the US Dollar as the global reserve currency – we seem to be winning
the race currently, but is this really what we want to do?? I think not, but
others are rejoicing.
As
far as our markets are concerned, we have entered into one of the seasonally
weakest periods of the year. Mutual Fund cash levels are at an all time low.
Gold set yet another all time high Friday. Silver is at a new rally high as
well. Gold and silver are fear trades. It seems contradictory that a weak
dollar would drive the price of precious metals to new highs and indicate that
the US business machine (as measured by the stock indices) would do well at the
same time.
Technically,
stock prices are at the upper boundary of a channel trend. Some markets like
the NASDAQ 100 have formed an almost parabolic chart pattern since September
1st. Parabolas’ generally end and reverse into a mirror image. Daily
stochastics are on a sell signal and the weekly stochastics are in nosebleed
territory ready for a turn. Bearish divergence is occurring on the NYSE, RUT,
S&P, and the NASDAQ Advance Decline lines. Advance / Decline divergence is
a very reliable signal seen near market turns.
Fundamentally
new home sales the last two months were the worst ever and second worst on
record. The jobless claim numbers remain very high and sentiment seems to be
getting worse. Make no mistake we are in a zone where a healthy sell off could
occur. It's the magnitude of that sell off that we want to watch. Do we stop at
1122, 1105, or do we retest 1040 or more?
The
real test will be what happens after we pullback and have a rally attempt. It
will be interesting to watch and maybe worth a revisit. I believe the US dollar
will be the key!
Disclosure: Positions in GLD, SDS, SH and SLV’
The
Q Ratio Indicates a Significantly Overvalued Market: A Comprehensive Look
Short ‘The Q Ratio is a popular
method of estimating the fair value of the stock market developed by Nobel
Laureate James Tobin. It's a fairly simple concept, but laborious to calculate.
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of
all its companies. The data for making the calculation comes from the Federal
Reserve Z.1 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United
States, which is released quarterly for data that is already over two months
old. The first chart shows Q Ratio from 1900 through the first quarter of 2010.
I've also extrapolated the ratio since June based on the price of VTI, the
Vanguard Total Market ETF, to
give a more up-to-date estimate. (chart)
Interpreting the Ratio
The
data since 1945 is a simple calculation using data from the Federal Reserve Z.1
Statistical Release, section B.102., Balance Sheet and Reconciliation Tables
for Nonfinancial Corporate Business. Specifically it is the ratio of Line 35
(Market Value) divided by Line 32 (Replacement Cost). It might seem logical
that fair value would be a 1:1 ratio. But that has not historically been the
case. The explanation, according to Smithers & Co. (more about them later) is:
The replacement cost of company assets
is overstated. This is because the long-term real return on corporate equity,
according to the published data, is only 4.8%, while the long-term real return
to investors is around 6.0%. Over the long-term and in equilibrium, the two
must be the same.
The average (arithmetic mean) Q ratio
is about 0.70. In the chart below I've adjusted the Q Ratio to an arithmetic
mean of 1 (i.e., divided the ratio data points by the average). This gives a
more intuitive sense to the numbers. For example, the all-time Q Ratio high at
the peak of the Tech Bubble was 1.82 — which suggests that the market price was
158% above the historic average of the replacement cost. The
all-time lows in 1921, 1932 and 1982 were around 0.43, which is 57% below
replacement cost. That's quite a range. (chart)
Another Means to an End
Smithers & Co., an investment firm
in London, incorporates the Q Ratio in their analysis. In fact, CEO Andrew
Smithers and economist Stephen Wright of the University of London coauthored a
book on the Q Ratio, Valuing Wall Street. They prefer the geometric
mean for standardizing the ratio, which has the effect of weighting
the numbers toward the mean. The chart below is adjusted to the geometric mean,
which, based on the same data as the two charts above, is 0.65. This analysis
makes the Tech Bubble an even more dramatic outlier at 179% above the
(geometric) mean.(chart)
The More Complicated Calculation of
Tobin's Q
John Mihaljevic, who was Dr. Tobin's
research assistant at Yale and collaborated with Tobin in revising the ratio
formula, uses a more complex formula based on the Flow of Funds data for calculating
Q. The formula is explained in detail at Mihaljevic's Manual of
Ideas website. The chart below uses the Mihaljevic/Tobin formula for
the Q calculation. (chart)
I would make two points about the more
intricate formula. First it produces results that are remarkably similar to the
simple calculation (first chart above. Also, the chart here differs somewhat
from the version posted at the Manual of Ideas website (reproduced here), even though my chart uses the Manual of
Ideas calculation formula. I've corresponded with John about the differences,
and he explained them as an artifact of undocumented revisions to the
government's Flow of Funds data. The Manual of Ideas Q Ratio is updated
quarterly when the latest Z.1 numbers are released, and no changes are made to
the ratio for previous quarters. My charts were built from scratch with the
historic Z.1 data with any undocumented revisions included.
Note: My calculations with the last two
Z.1 releases confirm John's explanation of undocumented Fed tinkering with the
older data. The changes are relatively minor, but they have resulted in over a
dozen quarterly Q modifications ranging from -0.01 to +0.02, with the upward
adjustments clustered toward the recent quarters.
Extrapolating Q
Unfortunately, the Q Ratio isn't a very
timely metric. The Flow of Funds data is over two months old when it's
released, and three months will pass before the next release. To address this
problem, I've been making extrapolations for the more recent months based on
changes in the market value of the VTI, the Vanguard Total Market ETF, which
essentially becomes a surrogate for line 32 in the data. The last two Z.1
releases have validated this approach. The extrapolated ratios for July, August
and September (to date) are 0.97, 0.92, 0.99 respectively.
Bottom Line: The Message of Q
The mean-adjusted charts above indicate
that the market remains significantly overvalued by historical standards — by
about 41% in the arithmetic-adjusted version and 52% in the geometric-adjusted
version. Of course periods of over- and under-valuation can last for many years
at a time.
Disclosure: No positions’
Krugman:
We’re Going To Have To Default On Our Debt One Way Or Another Some dour
commentary from Paul Krugman this morning on the implications of our monster
debt. Economists Herald New Great
Depression The world is currently
experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression, according to a
prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others now forecasting
ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.) , and my position
and that of demographer Dent ( Prechter and many others are also in this camp
although I believe he does not factor in sufficiently the debasement of the
u.s. currency / dollar in arriving at his numbers which do however, at 1,000 on
the DOW reflect real, as opposed to inflated values of 3-4,000 owing to the
ever more worthless Weimar dollars which provides ‘spin material’ for the wall
street frauds but is really quite ominous going forward, and very detrimental
in real economic terms.) [This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global
depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular
bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the
prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders
commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the
hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic
and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds
et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. Krugman: It's All Downhill From
Here Cullen Roche Love him or hate him
Paul Krugman has been awfully right with regards to the macro picture in the
last few years. He’s one of the rare economists who had the foresight to see
the housing bubble and the likelihood of economic downturn that would result
from it. Krugman recently caused a stir when he said the US economy was headed
for the third depression.]
National
/ World
Drudgereport:
America
on 'brink of a Second Revolution'...
UN
warns of global unrest over unemployment...
Merkel
calls for calm as rail protest turns ugly...
Photos
show US soldiers posing with Afghan corpses...
US
apologizes for '40s syphilis study in Guatemala … Unconflicted psychopaths! ...
'One
In 10' Americans Depressed...
Gore
fails to mention Obama during Dem rally...
VIDEO:
Crowd Chants 'You Are a Fraud!' -- 'Global Warming is Hoax!'...
AZ Sheriff:
Obama's 'Got His Hands Wrapped Around Our Throats'...
'Not
more than 30 seconds' to sign each foreclosure document (Washington Post) [
Well, the fraudulent wall street glass-half-full (though empty) camp say …
‘good for used home sales numbers’ as an excuse to push those computerized
programmed trade buttons higher’. Mr. Denninger expounds, see infra. Market
Outlook: Warning Signs Karl Denninger (Yes, Karl … true as the night
follows the day … Reality Does Bite! ) Anyone
following the markets knows the drill by now. A bad economic report comes out
(e.g. consumer confidence) and the market plunges 1%. An hour later, there's a magical
reversal and suddenly, we go to new highs for the day, which
"sticks" until the close. ] A OneWest Bank employee says she
and her team of seven others have signed 6,000 documents a week, or about
24,000 a month, without reading all of them.
Market
Outlook: Warning Signs Karl Denninger [ Yes, Karl … true as the night
follows the day … Reality Does Bite! ] Anyone
following the markets knows the drill by now.
A
bad economic report comes out (e.g. consumer confidence) and the market plunges
1%. An hour later, there's a magical reversal and suddenly, we go to
new highs for the day, which "sticks" until the close.
A
huge IPO gets pulled (Liberty Mutual) due to bad conditions - the
market sells off at the open, and goes down about 3/4%. Then there's a magical
reversal and we go to new highs for the day.
Trucking
volumes collapse and are reported. The market sells off, and then suddenly, there's
a magical reversal and the market goes to new daily highs.
Merideth
Whitney comes on the air and says that regional banks are cooked - their
revenue model is broken and the collapsing yield curve will crush them. In
addition, trading volumes are down at the major investment banks, so that will
cream their earnings. BANK, the Nasdaq Bank index, takes off on a literal
vertical tear as soon as she says this, rising by more than FORTY POINTS in an
hour.
David
Tepper says that if the economy is good, the market will go up. If the economy
is bad, The Fed will print more money and devalue the currency, and the
market will go up. Nobody questions the obvious disconnect (since when can
you borrow your way to prosperity, or debase your way there - and in what
instance in history has this ever worked?) but the magical buy-fairy shows
up and the markets scream higher, rising nearly 3%.
Does
anyone remember 2007 or early 2008?
Bear
Stearns blew up and the overnight futures were essentially lock-limit down.
What happened right after that? The magical buy fairy showed up and we went
to recovery highs - nearly 200 handles above where we were when Bear
exploded. (chart)
Anyone
remember "Buffett will buy the world"? Was anyone ever prosecuted
for all the false rumors that moved the market 1 or even 2% in the last hour of
trade - those rumors always seemed to hit CNBS when the market was
down 1% or more and threatening to break some key technical level. Suddenly, an
outright lie would be "disseminated" and the market would
violently reverse.
How
about Dick "I'm gonna burn the shorts" Fuld? The market roared,
right? For how long? And was he right - or was it Lehman that burned?
Look,
you can blame manipulation, you can blame The Fed, you can blame whatever you
want.
But
what I know from more than 10 years of trading is this:
When the market starts to act like this
- when there's this "invisible hand" that magically levitates things,
when people
resort to disseminating outright lies about the market or specific companies
and do so to counteract actual bad news that would otherwise result in moves
down, it
is a sign of desperation - there are people with money and power who are on the
wrong side of the bet and they are willing to deceive you and rip you off
outright to avoid being the one with the bag.
Do with that information what you
will.’
THE POP LOOKS LIKE A TOP - Harry Schiller ‘This morning's
explosive pop to multi-month highs had many bulls excited about the
much-anticipated breakout above resistance at the 1150 level of the S&P 500
(SPX) and the next big bull leg. But a simple look at the daily charts might
have dispelled some of this bullish hoopla, as the morning gap-up opening not
only served as a catalyst for this brief frenzy about a breakout, but also
satisfied (or almost satisfied) some important overhead objectives. Here's the
rule, folks: If the market surges at the opening, leaving big opening gaps and
returning to the tops of previously unfilled gaps -- especially gaps that the
market has been working on for several days -- DON'T BUY IT. It's that simple.
In fact, I'd take it a step further: Look for spots to sell and sell short, but
use tight stops above the tops of those gaps. This is,...’
The
Stock Market Crash of the '00s
Lounsbury ‘Here is a graph of
the stock
market crash over the past ten years, from Business Insider
Clusterstock:
[ chart
]
The S&P 500 has declined approximately 85% from the 2000 high. This
rivals the 1929-32 crash where the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 89%. These
two declines are the worst U.S. stock market declines in history, when looked
at with respect to the value of gold. A review of the secular market cycles
since 1900 can be found here.
A more
detailed analysis of the market decline from 2000 was published in January
and contained this chart for DJIA data:
[ chart ]
With gold now over $1,300 an ounce, a return to the March 2009 lows would
establish a valuation very close to the 89% loss line. If gold were to rise to
the $1,500 mark, a Dow value a little above $7,000 would constitute an 89% loss
from the year 2000. The inflation adjusted high from the early 1980s
corresponds to a price for gold between $2,100 and $2,200 today. If that price
were achieved the current market value for stocks would be an 89% loss from the
top.’
Drudgereport: [ Wow!
Things and wobama are getting, in the immortal words of Lewis Carroll,
curiouser and curiouser! And more desperate! ] HIP
HOP BARACK!
VIDEO:
'IT TOOK TIME TO FREE THE SLAVES'...
Democratic
National Committee enlisted artist B.o.B to perform...
Lyrics:
'I'm Dat ******'...
’Im Dat Nigga Lyrics
Im that ni**a X3
and im clean, that machine,
super cool, super mean
(T.I.)
You Already know,
im the hottest ni**a you heard in a long time,
introducin you to the hottest n**a you heard in a long time..
mega pimp, super clean, the coolest in the universe. Ni**as hatin on what he
doin, just mad cause they aint do it first.
his name pop up when you hit "playa" on ya google search. Bit**es bow
they heads and bend they knees, just like they do in church.
drop dough into a purse, before you get into a skirt.
she agree to do the work, before she get into the purp.
till my pine box drop down into the dirt, ima be by far the hottest ni**a known
to the earth. in the air i fly cant compare, my swagger to another rapper dont
you dare try, anybody wit a pair of eyes can look and see, no licorcy, will
ever be, next to me. or nothin near by. tho i invite you all to try, aye, ima a
fair guy. just approach with caution, be aware, cause i dont share my..thrown.
my crown i own, hottest flo on any song. im on im gone...ni**a!
B.o.B you up next baby,
GRAND HUSTLE NI**A!
if i aint the hottest ni**a on the mutha f***in universe, i guess ill just have
to do till he get here ni**a!
(B.o.B)
Here i go...
Im that ni**a that you heard about thru word of mouth,
they prolly said i change the music in the dirty south,
now that the word is out,
the timing is perfect now,
to take all these hypicritical rumors and burn em down.
if you observe the doubt you would see what they worried bout,
they say i sound like dre when im rappin bout virgins now,
honestly, i could give a fu** wut you blurtin out.
point blank, im in the game..rockin my jerseys now.
so just accept me or dont pay me no mind,
either way you gonna be hearin me all the time,
wether on greg street, or 107.9,
or on yo favorite rap blog, on yo rap website,
and if that aint right, then show me straight to the judge.
just like bryan nichols i aint spittin, nuthin but slugs,
venomous blood in my vains,
chemicals up in my brain,
yes i resemble a criminal,
B.o. Bizzle, you aint fu**in wit mane!
ahhh!’
PUMP
UP THE BASE: 'IT TOOK TIME TO FREE THE SLAVES' [ How ‘bout freein’ them by putting them in
jail! Do people really listen to that s**t? How totally regressive! Enough to make you want to vomit! ]
USA
'Practically Owned' by China...
Irish
Deficit to hit 32% of GDP!
U.S.
pressures Iranian officials (Washington Post) [ Boy! You just can’t
make this stuff up! Defacto bankrupt america (and their terrorist client state
israel) has engaged in war crimes, including murders of civilians, among other
literal killing, raping and plundering of nations, based literally in some
instances on lies, etc., violating international laws, u.n. resolutions (ie.,
242, 338, etc.), torture, kidnapping/torture and they’re talking about … Iran?
What parallel universe do they purport to reside in …? I’d say a suitable place
called he*l. ]The Obama administration is stepping up pressure on Iran with a
fresh set of penalties against eight senior officials for alleged human rights
abuses.
The Only Reason Stocks Have Rallied This Month Graham Summers The Fed generally
claims that it stopped its first Quantitative Easing (QE) program back in March
2010 and that there were no additional debt monetizations between then and the
announcement of its QE lite program in August.
Yet,
as I’ve proven time and again, the Fed has continued to monetize Wall Street’s
debts EVERY options expiration week since QE 1 ended… proving beyond a doubt
that the Fed’s QE program did NOT actually end in March.
Here’s
the chart of the Fed’s recent actions for those of you who haven’t seen this
before. Options expiration weeks are in bold… ‘Unbeknownst to most investors,
last week ( no-recession-helicopter) Ben (b.s. for b*** s*** shalom) Bernanke
(oj the juice man) pumped an additional $11.05 BILLION into the system ON TOP
of the $11.15 pumped via the POMOs. In plain terms, THE FED JUICED THE
SYSTEM BY $20+ BILLION IN A SINGLE WEEK, BRINGING ITS LIQUIDITY PUMPS RIGHT
BACK QE 1 LEVELS… ’
Postal
Service close to going broke (Washington Post) [ No surprise here! My most
recent experience with the USPS regarding a very simple request, their
dereliction, and email: Monday,
September 27, 2010 5:07 PM
From:
"albert
peia" <[email protected]>
To:
"United States
Postal Service"
you still haven't
provided the requested information. I'm astounded you're still in business.
Don't contact me about this again. You're service is pathetic as one would
typically expect in a corrupt, defacto bankrupt, third-world country.
|
Rethinking a Dollar-Heavy Asset Allocation
Picerno "Like it or not, significant dollar depreciation is more probable
than most now suppose," writes Simon Johnson, a professor at MIT’s Sloan
School of Management, in a Bloomberg column today. The market seems to be
discounting no less. Certainly the gold market is roaring higher in part
because the odds that the dollar will fall in the months (years?) ahead look
quite a bit better than even. Johnson, co-author of 13 Bankers: The Wall Street Takeover and the Next
Financial Meltdown,
sees three reasons why the dollar will trend lower: 1) worries over political
gridlock in Washington as the country grapples with a huge budget deficit; 2)
sluggish U.S. economic growth, which will compel the Fed to focus on lowering
long-term interest rates, a.k.a., a new round of quantitative easing; and 3)
the growing appetite of emerging market nations to diversify their large and
growing foreign exchange reserves into currencies other than the greenback.
"The dollar is, therefore, likely to depreciate against all floating
currencies," Johnson predicts. That's hardly a radical idea these days,
considering that the buck has been more or less weakening since June. The
previous rebound in the dollar that prevailed in the first half of this year
now appears to be over. One reason is because of an increased appetite for risk
in the global economy in recent months. When macro anxiety rises, liquidity
tends to gravitate into dollars, the world's reserve currency. But as investors
and governments have become convinced recently that the economic challenges
aren't quite so acute, particularly outside of the developed economies, the
appeal of non-dollar assets and currencies has taken flight once more. (Chart)
"The safe bet is to keep selling the dollar, especially given reasonably
supportive data from the euro," Peter Frank, currency analyst at Societe
Generale, tells Reuters today.Safe? Well, that's going
too far. But certainly it's prudent for U.S. investors to hold some amount of
non-dollar allocations in their portfolios. There are several options,
including broad commodity funds. Commodities, which are generally priced in
dollars, tend to move in the opposite direction of the buck. Two of the more
popular exchange traded products in this corner: iShares S&P GSCI
Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) and iPath DJ-UBS Commodity Index TR ETN (DJP). The underlying index designs are energy
heavy, however. For a lesser emphasis on oil and gas, take a look at ELEMENTS
Rogers Intl Commodity ETN (RJI)
and GreenHaven Continuous Commodity Index (GCC).Gold in particular is the leading
commodity alternative to the dollar. The world generally sees the precious
metal as the antidote to Washington's fiat currency, which is why the pair
generally share a negative correlation. Two leading gold ETFs: SPDR Gold Shares
(GLD) and iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU).Foreign stocks and bonds priced in local
currencies are another option, although each must be analyzed in concert with
the underlying fundamentals of their respective markets along with the forex
outlook. Although most non-U.S. stock ETFs and mutual funds don't hedge forex,
foreign currency exposure is a bit tougher to find in foreign bond products.
Harder, but not impossible. A small but growing list includes SPDR Barclays
Capital International Treasury Bond (BWX)
and iShares S&P/Citigroup Int'l Treasury Bond (IGOV) Meanwhile, consider too the first local
currency emerging market bond ETF: Van Eck Market Vectors Emerging Markets (EMLC). Keep in mind that the forex factor
tends to be much larger for bonds vs. stocks. Why? Bonds generally have a
relatively low expected return vs. equities, which means that the forex factor
can easily overwhelm the risk/return profile for foreign bond portfolios.If you
can stomach the volatility and have a taste for speculation, there's also a
wide choice of foreign currency ETFs to capitalize on a weakening dollar,
ranging from the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish (UDN), which is primarily a euro and yen play,
to the emerging-market focused choices )WisdomTree Dreyfus Emerging Currency
Fund (CEW))
as well as individual country targets (WisdomTree Dreyfus Brazilian Real Fund (BZF)
and WisdomTree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan Fund (CYB)).Investing
in currencies comes with a high risk, of course, and so it's not for the faint
of heart. Caveat emptor.But even if you're a conservative investor with a
long-term outlook, and your portfolio is missing equity and/or bond allocations
denominated in foreign currencies, it's time to rethink what amounts to a huge
bet in favor of everything going well in the U.S. I wouldn't discount the
possibility, but neither would I bet the farm on that scenario either. Disclosure:
None
The
Seven Lean Years Scenario Is Still Intact
Cam Hui ‘The was some recent buzz in the blogosphere when Jeffrey Hirsch
of the Stock Traders' Alamanac forecast
that the Dow would go on an eight-year tear with a target of 38,820 (see
the full comment here).
Most commentators focused on the maginitude of the gain. Lost in the noise of
the forecast was that the start of the bull market would begin in 2017. I have
written about this in the past.
A lot of long-term analysis is pointing toward the 2017-8 as the start of a new
bull, meaning that we would have to endure seven lean years. On September 7,
2010, I wrote that:\\
Jeremy Grantham revisited his “seven lean years”
scenario in his July
quarterly letter. About a year ago, Art
Cashin highlighted the 17.6 year stock market cycle, which pointed to a
bottom around 2017. I also wrote
about an academic study that correlated demographic trends to P/E ratios, which
pointed to a long-term bottom around 2018. I also suggested
that while markets are likely to be flat longer term, they are going to be
volatile and experience huge intermediate term swings.
Now Hirsch has bought a ticket on the 2017 train and that ticket is looking
more and more interesting. In that kind of low-return environment, I would
reiterate my thesis that buy-and-hold strategies are likely to disappoint,
especially in an era of uncertain
equity risk premiums. Investors need to look to new strategies to raise
their returns.’
Daily
State of Markets: A Complete Contradiction? Moenning ‘Good morning. If you don't mind,
please take a moment and put your thinking caps on for me. Now, let's put the
following data into our crowded brains and see what we come up with. First, we
learned yesterday that The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index took a
dive in September as all the bad economic news finally caught up to the public.
Next, we learned that the Richmond Fed also took a pretty big hit and continued
its downtrend trend in September, falling to -2 from +11 in August (and for the
record, here's the recent data: July +16, June +23, May +26, April +30). This
was on top of the surprisingly weak data from Monday's Chicago Fed National
Business Activity Index. Finally, let's toss in the fact that bond yields
plunged with the yield on the 10-year falling to its lowest level of this cycle
(2.456%).So, given the above inputs, what should we expect stocks to do? Let's
review: Weak economic data plus falling bond yields equals... Yep, that's
right, a Dow rally of nearly 50 points! Huh?As a trader, we should be
applauding the bulls for pulling off a nice gain in what would appear to be a
complete contradiction in terms. By definition, bond yields fall on bad news and stocks tend
to follow suit. But as the saying goes, it ain't the news, but how the market
reacts to the news that matters. So, traders everywhere could be heard cheering
the bulls' big accomplishment on Tuesday. And putting all sarcasm aside, we
will admit that our heroes in horns are to be commended for their efforts.But
as a card carrying member of the There Has To Be a Reason Behind the Big Moves
Club, I'm a little befuddled. While I can give you several reasons why stocks may
move up on what would appear to be bad news, none of them are really great
explanations. For example, we've got the end-of-the quarter window dressing
rationale, which sometimes seems to be a factor in the market and sometimes not. And while I
could go on, the most likely excuse for stocks to rally on bad news and falling
bond yields (and rising gold prices) is the Tepper Trade.As you may recall,
big-time hedge fund manager David Tepper told CNBC recently that stocks win
whether the economy goes up or down. Mr. Tepper opined that if the economy
tanks from here, the Fed would launch QE II (to froth the market) …’
Economic Data -- Que Sera Sera: Dave's Daily ‘Thursday and Friday bring more important data with GDP estimate,
Jobless Claims (all estimates "locked" at 450K), Chicago PMI,
Personal Income & Spending, U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Construction
Spending and the ISM Index. These, taken together, should give investors plenty
to think about. The current theme of both good and bad data as good things will
be tested. But, let's remember, Thursday marks the end of the quarter while
Friday's the start of a new month. With the former, expect some window dressing
where possible and the latter might mean who gives a rip. As trading volume
shrinks layoffs in the financial sector are, and will be the result. Fearless
heretic and analyst Meredith Whitney estimated yesterday 80K Wall Street types
will lose their jobs in 2011. ICI (Investment Company Institute) has just noted
domestic equity mutual funds saw a 21st sequential outflow of $2.5 billion,
bringing the total year-to-date to over $70 billion. Volume has told us another
thing; the only folks trading are HFTs and hedge funds. Some might suggest a
few banks with their POMO from heaven but how will we ever know? There's no
transparency from the most transparent....oh nevermind. Wednesday's volume was
especially light as tension builds before the economic news onslaught. Breadth
was mixed. ‘
Feds
Radiating Americans At Internal Checkpoints Paul Joseph Watson | While illegals and hardcore drugs flood into the
country from across the border, authorities target truck drivers in Atlanta.
Drudgereport: Paladino alleges Cuomo affair
… former Kennedy wife Kerry backs Cuomo … Kennedys officially extinct ...
Wobama Struggles to Reconnect
With Voters … hoping they’ll believe his lies again ...
MESSAGE: GOP lying to
americans … look who’s talkin’ wobama … (wobama’s such total b*** s***) ...
UPDATE: Obama, Biden, Kerry
Lash Out at Electorate...
And she's (pelosi) as
unpopular as BP... ...ethics pledge falters
Maine guv candidate: 'I'd
tell Obama to go to hell'...
Fort Hood: Four soldiers
'killed themselves' in last week...
Gates’ Revelation: Military
(nation) faces strains after decade(s) of war...
Troop Suicides On Pentagon's
'Emergency' List...
'We need to make clear ...
the cancer is in Pakistan' (Washington
Post) [ How ‘bout the reality that the cancer is in Washington and tel aviv! I
mean, come on! … This from a guy who’s failed presidency speaks volumes about
his own inability to govern. After all, wasn’t he elected based on campaign
promises to end perpetual war as geopolitical strategy, particularly in light
of the reality of america’s defacto bankruptcy and that ‘opposite effect /
blowback thing’? Wobama is so full of s*** as indeed they all are, all three
branches of the failed, corrupt u.s. government and those mini mini black /
grey areas that purport to be patriotic americentric while enriching
themselves, only. Anti-americanism has never been so real and globally
popular.] The reason to create a secure, self-governing Afghanistan, President
Obama told his aides last year, was "so the cancer doesn't spread
there."
Pearlstein:
Can business afford Jim DeMint? (Washington Post) [ At this point, given
the structural shift in the most negative sense, the real question is whether
the defacto bankrupt nation america can afford business, along with the costly
over-priced / over-valued / pervasively corrupt and incompetent three branches
of the u.s. government along with the corporate welfare programs, particularly
involving the military industrial complex. The answer, obvious of course, is
no! ]
Senate
Republicans block outsourcing bill
(Washington Post)
Week |
Fed Action |
July
22 |
-$8
billion |
July 15 |
+$8.6 billion |
July
8 2010 |
+$1
billion |
July
1 2010 |
-$13
billion |
June
24 2010 |
+$175
million |
June 17 2010 |
+$12 billion |
June
10 2010 |
-$4
billion |
June
3 2010 |
+$2
billion |
May
27 2010 |
-$16
billion |
May 20 2010 |
+$14 billion |
May
13 2010 |
+$10
billion |
May
6 2010 |
-$4
billion |
April
29 2010 |
-$1
billion |
April 15 2010 |
+$31 billion |
April
8 2010 |
+$420
million |
April
1 2010 |
-$6
billion |
You’ll
note that the Fed ALWAYS made its largest capital contributions during options
expiration weeks. Heck it pumped $31 BILLION into the system in April 2010,
just ONE MONTH after it claimed QE 1 ended!
However,
since that time the Fed has pumped a total of over $65 billion into Wall Street
on options expiration weeks. On non-expiration weeks the Fed either withdraws
money or makes small money pumps.
This
pattern finally ended in August 2010 when the Fed failed to pump the
system on options expiration week. But then again, why bother? The Fed was
about to announce its QE lite program in which it would use the interest on
maturing securities to purchase Treasuries from Wall Street Primary Dealers via
its Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO).
I
realize that last sentence is a lot to take in. So let me explain how this new
QE Lite Program works before we continue.
During
Treasury auctions there are 18 banks, called Primary Dealers, who are given
unprecedented access to US Debt (Treasuries) in terms of pricing and control.
These are the BIG BOYS of finance including firms like Goldman Sachs (GS), JP Morgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Credit Suisse (CS), and others.
During
its QE 1 Program, the Fed bought over $1.0 trillion in securities from these
firms. Its new QE lite program consists of it using the interest and proceeds
from the securities in its portfolio that are maturing to buy Treasuries from
the Primary Dealers via Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO).
In
simple terms, the POMO actions allow the Fed to pump money into Wall Street (by
buying Treasuries from the Primary Dealers) without DIRECTLY monetizing
Treasury debt (the Treasuries had already been issued). The Primary Dealers
then take this fresh capital from the Fed and plow into stocks, forcing the
sort of ramp job we saw last week on Friday. (chart)
All
told, the Fed has bought $20 billion worth of Treasuries in this fashion,
$11.15 of which it purchased last week alone. With this kind of weekly money
pumping in place, Bernanke and pals don’t need to continue their “behind the
scenes” games (like the options expiration week money pumps).
Or
do they?
Unbeknownst
to most investors, last week ( no-recession-helicopter) Ben (b.s. for b*** s***
shalom) Bernanke (oj the juice man) pumped an additional $11.05 BILLION into
the system ON TOP of the $11.15 pumped via the POMOs. In plain terms, THE
FED JUICED THE SYSTEM BY $20+ BILLION IN A SINGLE WEEK, BRINGING ITS LIQUIDITY
PUMPS RIGHT BACK QE 1 LEVELS.
If
you want to know why stocks have rallied in the last month, this is THE reason.
The economy isn’t improving and the European Crisis isn’t over. Nothing has
improved. All that has happened is the Fed funneled money into the Primary
Dealers who ramped the market.
This
is also the reason why the latest rally has almost entirely consisted of gap
ups: the Primary Dealers ramp the market and then the computer trading programs
take care of the rest. (chart)
In
plain terms, the market is being juiced higher, plain and simple. There is no
fundamental reason for stocks to be rallying. Moreover, we have numerous signs
of a top forming (mutual fund cash levels, insider selling to buying ratios,
negative divergence, etc). Those who choose to buy into the farce of a rally
are going to get what’s coming to them. And when they do, it won’t be pretty.
Disclosure: None ]
Consumer
confidence drops to lowest since Feb. (Washington Post)
A Candid Appraisal of the Recovery John
Browne Over the last two weeks,
seemingly good economic news offered some shreds of optimism to a stock market
that was desperate for a pick-me-up.
The
week before last, the National Bureau of Economic Research declared that the US
recession had ended back in June 2009. At the beginning of last week, news came
in that month-on-month retail sales had risen by 0.4 percent. Combined with
successful government debt auctions in the eurozone, increasing expectations
that Republicans will take back the House (thereby blunting the leftward drift
of Washington), and hopes that a new round of quantitative easing will pump up
growth, mainstream analysts are developing a feeling of near-euphoria.
Although
it hard to begrudge the punch drunk for grasping at a little hope, investing is
a dispassionate endeavor that calls for close and realistic analysis. In that
spirit, let's dig deeper into the recent 'good news.'
First,
the single month's rise in retail sales was a blip on what has been a long-term
downtrend. Furthermore, retail sales in August typically get a large boost from
seasonal 'back to school' spending. This year, retail sales were boosted
further by temporary tax incentives and vendor discounts.
Second,
the successful auction of debt from worrisome eurozone countries, like Ireland,
only served to further camouflage the ongoing risk of sovereign default by
these states. None of them have committed to a comprehensive program of
austerity and market liberalization - Ireland maintains a 'too big to fail'
doctrine while Greece is on the verge of riots from its so-far modest efforts
at privatization. None of the PIIGS would have had successful bond sales if
Germany hadn't been pressured into becoming a 'sovereign of last resort' for
the whole currency area.
Apart
from health of the weakest nations, a more important issue is understanding how
sovereign debt is analyzed by investors in the first place. Those who consider
buying government debt have for many years relied on backward-looking
measurements such as debt-to-GDP to analyze the investment quality.
But
that's only half the picture, and oftentimes it's even less than that. It does
not include off-balance sheet items such as unfunded pensions, social security
payments, or health obligations. For the US, I estimate this total debt amounts
to some $134 trillion - nearly ten times the 'official' figure.
On
a deeper level, using the public debt-to-GDP ratio to assess sovereign solvency
implies that governments have access to the entire annual production of their
economies. In reality, they have access only to that portion which is taxable.
As taxes increase, there are natural limits imposed by increasing inefficiency
and avoidance behaviors. Therefore, 'net GDP,' the portion available to the
government for debt service, is significantly smaller than the gross GDP of the
nation.
With
real government debts, including off-balance sheet items, far larger than
officially recognized and net GDPs far smaller that top-line GDP, the solvency
of many sovereigns should be considered dubious at best.
For
example, the debt-to-GDP ratio of the United States is currently 65 percent,
which puts the country towards the solvent end of the debt spectrum among
developed Western nations. However, the real debt-to-net GDP ratio is a
staggering 358 percent, making the US the most insolvent nation in the group,
behind even Greece!
In
the interest of brevity, I will only touch on the fact that the above number is
actually still an underestimate. It does not account for the portion of gross
GDP claimed by state and municipal governments to service their debts. After
all, all levels of government tax the same base. So, the effective portion of
GDP available to the federal government is even smaller still.
The
third problem with the late round of 'good news' is that while a GOP sweep of
House races looks likely, it is unlikely to make a large impact on policy. It
is doubtful that the small number of freshman GOP Representatives will be able
to win over their more mature, big government-minded colleagues. Any pending
GOP 'small government' revolution will be heavy on talk and short on accomplishments.
It
should come as no surprise that the Republicans' "Pledge to America"
lacked specific commitments for cost-cutting. Republicans are terrified of
becoming the party of austerity, and the next Republican President will want to
avoid being seen as 'Hoover 2.0'. Therefore, any structural changes will come
slowly - and perhaps too late.
Finally,
whatever actions the Fed takes in the name of further stimulus will have the
same unintended consequences as all previous stimulus efforts. Long-term sustainability
will be sacrificed in favor of a short-term boom. Since World War II, the
underlying strength of the US economy has allowed the central bank to get away
with this strategy, as the economy simply outgrew the inefficiencies caused by
monetary manipulation. But what happens when we are in a period of secular
decline?
So
we see that Wall Street is again playing the part of Pangloss. Unfortunately,
their purported inklings of a renewed rally in the US markets do not stand up
to candid appraisal.
Bad Data Rescues Stocks: Dave's
Daily ‘Bad
economic data (Consumer Confidence 48.5 vs 53 consensus) and more worries from
Europe regarding Irish banks drove markets sharply lower early. But, then the
Fed showed up with a small POMO operation reminding bulls that bad data
keeps the Fed as their friend. The smokescreen for the day was deal-making. The
new deal or theme taking root in markets is good news is good and bad news is
even better…’
Report From Europe: Ireland's Bonds in More Trouble
Krugman:
We’re Going To Have To Default On Our Debt One Way Or Another Some dour
commentary from Paul Krugman this morning on the implications of our monster
debt.
This is an especially great
opportunity to sell / take profits! There’s an old axiom that remains as true today as ever; viz.,
‘don’t look a gift horse in the mouth’, that is of course unless you’re of the
‘buy and hold’ mentality. Specifically, if you recall the recent market rally
on the better than expected unemployment numbers from the government, albeit
false data based on estimates that of course were as true as ‘bernie madoff is
a reliable, trustworthy, seasoned professional with whom to entrust your money
for investment’. The unemployment numbers just came in decidedly worse than
expected (and in the ‘wrong direction’, that spin accorded ‘down but not as bad
as before’ b*** s*** ) yet the market has this day rallied like no tomorrow
with used home foreclosure / distressed sales the other ‘heralded’ good news.
This is about keeping the suckers sucked in for now, and window dressing for
the month and the 3rd quarter which can be and is manipulated, particularly
with computerized (and high frequency) trades and which commissions they’ll get
again on the way down. There is nothing to support these overbought stock
prices, fundamentally or otherwise. These are desperate criminals ‘at work’.
Even wall street shill Buffett is saying we’re still in a recession
(depression) Buffett: We're Still in a Recession [ Wow! A moment of lucidity from Buffet
which belies his prior ‘rosy wall street shill talk’, but his greater candor is
welcomed nonetheless although the ‘d’ (for depression) word is more appropriate
and accurate.] Roche ‘Warren
Buffett disagrees with the NBER. He says we’re still in a recession and likely
to remain in a recession for quite a while. These comments are far more
tempered than the ones that were published last week. Of
course, my favorite part in this clip is where he says the U.S. government did
the right thing in responding to the crisis. They certainly did the right thing
for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
shareholders. Whether or not they did the right thing for America is a whole
other story…’ [ And, of course we now know that it wasn’t the right thing for
america … The question inevitably
becomes, ‘Who’s manipulating who, what, and why? After all, we know defacto
bankrupt america’s pervasively corrupt! ]
Economists Herald New Great
Depression The world is currently
experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression, according to a
prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others now forecasting
ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.) , and my position and that of demographer Dent (This is a global
depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up
move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has
been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with
great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell
into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam /
fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will
not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are
criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.
Krugman: It's All Downhill From
Here Cullen Roche Love him or hate him
Paul Krugman has been awfully right with regards to the macro picture in the
last few years. He’s one of the rare economists who had the foresight to see
the housing bubble and the likelihood of economic downturn that would result
from it. Krugman recently caused a stir when he said the US economy was headed
for the third depression. He isn’t back down from that outlook:
I’ve had a couple of conversations
lately with people who follow politics and public affairs, but aren’t that
close to the economic discussion — and I’ve discovered that there are two
comforting delusions still out there.
Delusion #1 is that we’re on the road
to recovery, just more slowly than we’d like; to be fair, the White House keeps
saying this.
But it’s not at all true. GDP is
growing below potential; employment, even if you focus just on private employment,
is growing more slowly than the working-age population. If you ask how long it
will take us to return to, say, 5 percent unemployment on the current track,
the answer is forever.
Delusion #2 is the belief that the
stimulus may yet do the trick, because there are still substantial funds
unspent. I tried to deal with this last year.
The level of GDP depends not on total funds spent, but on the rate at which
funds are being spent, which has already peaked; GDP growth on the rate of
change in the rate at which funds are being spent, which peaked last year. It’s
all downhill from here.
Harry
Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012). ]
Dow
1000? Robert Prechter Thinks So
National / World
Drudgereport:
Consumer confidence drops to
lowest since Feb...
Bush aide: Economy 'Close to
Destructive Tipping Point'...
CEOs' view of economy
darkens...
Afghan President Hamid Karzai
breaks down in tears over state of country...
CIA INTENSIFIES DRONE
AIRSTRIKES WITHIN PAKISTAN...
GOLD NEW HIGH: $1311...
Murky
waters for D.C.'s 'boat people' (Washington Post) [ Murky waters? Boat
people? Yeah, sounds like the third world defacto bankrupt america of present
and future. Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman seems to think so! Krugman:
We’re Going To Have To Default On Our Debt One Way Or Another Some dour
commentary from Paul Krugman this morning on the implications of our monster
debt. Economists Herald New Great
Depression The world is currently
experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression, according to a
prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others now forecasting
ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.) , and my position and that of demographer Dent (This is a global depression. This is a
secular bear market in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated
bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically
manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that
the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical
wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior
crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until
justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted,
jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. Krugman: It's All Downhill From
Here Cullen Roche Love him or hate him
Paul Krugman has been awfully right with regards to the macro picture in the
last few years. He’s one of the rare economists who had the foresight to see
the housing bubble and the likelihood of economic downturn that would result
from it. Krugman recently caused a stir when he said the US economy was headed
for the third depression. He isn’t back down from that outlook:
I’ve had a couple of conversations
lately with people who follow politics and public affairs, but aren’t that
close to the economic discussion — and I’ve discovered that there are two
comforting delusions still out there.
Delusion #1 is that we’re on the road
to recovery, just more slowly than we’d like; to be fair, the White House keeps
saying this.
But it’s not at all true. GDP is
growing below potential; employment, even if you focus just on private
employment, is growing more slowly than the working-age population. If you ask
how long it will take us to return to, say, 5 percent unemployment on the
current track, the answer is forever.
Delusion #2 is the belief that the
stimulus may yet do the trick, because there are still substantial funds
unspent. I tried to deal with this last year.
The level of GDP depends not on total funds spent, but on the rate at which
funds are being spent, which has already peaked; GDP growth on the rate of
change in the rate at which funds are being spent, which peaked last year. It’s
all downhill from here.
Harry
Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012). ]
9-13-10
Steven M. Martinez,
Assistant Director In Charge
Federal Bureau of Investigation, USDOJ
11000 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 1700
Los Angeles, CA 90024
Dear Sir:
I enclose herewith 3
copies of the within DVD rom autorun disk (which will open in your computer’s
browser) as per your office’s request as made this day (the disk and contents
have been scanned by Avast, McAfee, and Norton which I’ve installed on my
computer to prevent viral attacks / infection and are without threat). I also
include a copy of the DVD as filed with the subject court as referenced therein
(which files are also included on the aforesaid 3 disks in a separate folder
named ‘112208opocoan’)…
The (civil) RICO action (as you’re aware, the
RICO Act is a criminal statute which provides a civil remedy, including treble
damages and attorney fees, as an incentive for private prosecution of said
claims probably owing to the fact that the USDOJ seems somewhat overwhelmed and
in need of such assistance given the seriousness and prevalence of said
violations of law which have a corrupting influence on the process, and which
corruption is pervasive). A grievance complaint against Coan was also filed
concurrently with the subject action and held in abeyance pending resolution of
the action which was illegally dismissed without any supporting law and in
contravention of the Order of The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge,
USDC, District Connecticut. The files below the horizontal rule are the
referenced documents as filed. (Owing to the damage to the financial interests
of both the U.S. and the District of Congresswoman Roybal-Allard, viz., Los
Angeles, the Qui Tam provisions of the Federal False Claims Act probably would apply and I would absent
resolution seek to refer the within to a firm with expertise in that area of
the law with which I am not familiar).
The document in 5 pages under penalty of
perjury I was asked to forward to the FBI office in New Haven is probably the
best and most concise summary of the case
RICO
Summary to FBI Under Penalty of Perjury at Their Request (5 pages) [ http://albertpeia.com/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf (
http://albertpeia.com/fbiofficela91310 )
].
The correspondence I
received from Congresswoman by way of email attachment (apparent but typical
problem with my mail) along with my response thereto is included on the 3 disks
as fbicorrespondencereyes.htm . With regard to the
calls to the FBI’s LA and New Haven, CT offices: There was one call to the LA
office and I was referred to the Long Beach, CA office where I personally met
with FBI Agent Jeff Hayes to whom I gave probative evidentiary documents of the
money laundering which he confirmed as indicative of same (he was transferred
from said office within approximately a month of said meeting and his location
was not disclosed to me upon inquiry).
The matter was assigned to FBI Agent Ron Barndollar and we remained in
touch for in excess of a decade until he abruptly retired (our last
conversation prior to his retirement related to the case and parenthetically,
Rudy Giuliani whose father I stated had been an enforcer for the mob to which
he registered disbelief and requested I prove it, which I did – he served 12
years in prison, aggravated assault/manslaughter? – and no, there is no Chinese
wall of separation – Andrew Maloney’s the one that prosecuted gotti).
In contradistinction
to the statement in said correspondence, there is a plethora of information
including evidence supporting the claims set forth in the RICO
VERIFIED COMPLAINT (see infra). Such includes and as set forth
in the case, inter alia,
There is applicable insurance / surety coverage and neither LA, nor
creditors, nor I should continue to have been damaged by this brazened corrupt
and illegal scenario, which should be resolved in accordance with the
meaningful rules of law apposite thereto.
Sincerely,
Albert L. Peia
611 E. 5th Street, #404
Los Angeles, CA 90013
(213) ******** (cell phone)
(213) 622-3745 (listed land line but there are unresolved problems with
the line, computer connection may be the reason but I hesitate to chance
greater non-performance / worsening by their ‘fix’ so cell phone best for
contact).
• Audio: Obama on terrorism tactics
A subtler tack to fight Afghan corruption?
(Washington
Post) [ How about a not so subtler tack
to fight corruption starting right here in the u.s. of a. where corruption and
crime are pervasive and in fact, at the root of the Afghanistan problems, from
american reinvigorated heroin trade to bribery attendant thereto to killing
civilians, etc.. Defacto Bankrupt, Meaningfully Lawless,
War Criminal Nation america, the leader of nations … in crime:
Though having but 5% of the world’s population, america can
boast 76% of the world’s serial killers, followed by Europe with England/UK
then Germany leading the way for the eu [excerpt, 6 minute video, Serial
Killers: Real Life Hannibal Lechters http://www.albertpeia.com/realifeamericaserialkillers.mpg (as is consistent with crime generally,
see infra)]. Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive
(defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of
the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern
emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed
employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in
this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense
( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
) ]:
Rank |
|||
# 1
|
11,877,218 |
|
|
# 2
|
6,523,706 |
|
|
# 3
|
6,507,394 |
|
… ]
Go to following pages for
above links:
http://www.albertpeia.com/currentopics2ndqtr10108.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com
http://www.scribd.com/alpeia
http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm
Hussman: Not Out of the Woods Yet Roche There
are clear signs that the recovery has started to fade and the debate over a
double dip continues to rage. The NBER thinks the recession is over, but John
Hussman is concerned that just as the last recession ends the next one is
already beginning. Dr. Hussman says we’re not out of the woods yet as the
NBER’s own indicators appear to be pointing to another downturn just as they
announce the end of the previous one:
Below, I’ve combined the long-term
Stock and Watson data with the ECRI Weekly Leading Index growth rate to give a
picture of how fluctuations in these measures have correlated with past
recessions (shaded orange) identified by the NBER. Given the upward spike in
growth that we observed in mid-2009, the choice of a June 2009 turning point is
consistent with historical precedent. The Committee typically dates the
beginning of a recovery at the point where the growth rates of underlying
measures of economic growth clearly spike from negative to positive. What is of
immediate concern though, is the trajectory that growth rates have taken since
then. (chart) . Again, the graph presented here is as of June 30, 2010. While
we know the ECRI data has deteriorated further since June, we won’t have GDP
figures for a while yet. Given the data in hand, it’s clear that past growth
downturns of the same extent have often gone on to become recessions. However,
there are a few exceptions where these growth rates dipped below zero and then
recovered. If we had good reason to expect positive economic tailwinds, we
would be less concerned about the present deterioration. Unfortunately, my
impression is that the bulk of the growth that we did observe coming off of the
June 2009 economic low was driven by a burst of stimulus spending coupled with
a variety of programs to pull economic activity forward. My concern is that
these synthetic factors are now trailing off, with little intrinsic economic
activity to carry a recovery forward. Suffice it to say that we’re not yet out
of the woods.
Of course, the NBER (and most
economists and most market participants) won’t acknowledge a new recession
until long after it has become obvious. According to the NBER’s own indicators
it looks like the next recession could very well be in its infancy. As always,
I highly recommend Dr. Hussman’s full weekly letter which can be found here.
Source:
Hussman Funds
My
Weekly Market Forecast Graham Summers ‘Last
week I forecast that we would see a reversal in stocks. The market did indeed
show signs of breaking down on Wednesday and Thursday, however, the Fed’s juice
managed to keep stocks afloat and closing in the green for the week. (chart)
All told, the Fed injected more than $10 billion into the market directly via
its three Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) pumps. However, Bailout Ben
wasn’t content with mere open market juicing, so he pumped another $10 billion
into the system “behind the scenes.”
I’m going to address this activity in depth in Tuesday’s article, but
for now I simply wanted to stress that more than $20 billion in Fed money pumps
hit the market last week. This should clear up ANY questions as to why stocks
are holding up, let alone rallying. Another way of looking at this, is that the
Fed is trashing the US Dollar to prop up stocks. Indeed, the US currency has
broken down below both its 50- and its 200-DMAs. Even worse, it has broken
critical support at 80, which has served as a MAJOR line of importance over the
last 20 years (the Dollar has only broken below this line twice: once during
the 2008 lows and during the 2009 QE-induced collapse). (chart) This breakdown could
turn out to be a bearish head-fake. However, if it is, the US Dollar needs
to start rallying hard soon. Indeed, we are nearing a “death” cross pattern
here: when the 50-DMA falls below the 200-DMA.
These patterns typically are harbingers of further weakness. Combined
with the fact the Dollar is below 80 for only the third time in 20 years, this is a MAJOR warning
that unless we get a reversal soon, the Dollar is in VERY serious trouble. Indeed, we have the makings of a massive Head and
Shoulders pattern here. As I write, we’re sitting just on the neckline
of this pattern. Multiple closings below this line would confirm that the US
Dollar is headed lower with a downside target around 71 or so. This would very
likely mean stocks re-testing the April highs (1,220) and Gold exploding to
$1,350 or even higher. (chart) This is certainly one outcome, however, I don’t
think it will prove to be the case. Stocks are overbought and the US Dollar is
oversold. At the least we need to see a retrenchment or consolidation in the
former and a bounce in the latter. Big Picture: stocks have come up against MAJOR
resistance at 1,150. This is occurring right as the S&P 500 reaches an
overbought RSI reading (70) and on dwindling volume. (chart) Furthermore,
stocks have risen to test the upper trend-line of their trading channel dating
back to early May 2010. This line, which coincides with long-term resistance at
1,150, adds to the likelihood of a reversal here. (chart) The first line of
support is 1,123 or so. We actually fell to test this last week, but Friday’s
POMO-induced ramp job stopped the breakdown. So for now overhead resistance is
1,150 and support is 1,123 or so. A break above the one sets the stage for a
rally to 1,170 or even 1,180… a breakdown below the other (1,123) and the next
real line of support is 1,100 then 1,080. We have POMOs this week on Tuesday
and Thursday. In light of this, I think we might see a final impulse push in
stocks above 1,150. However, this effort will fail and we’ll see a retrenchment
back to 1,123 or so. And if we take out support a 1,123 on a closing basis then
the rally is likely over and we’re heading back down in a major way. When that happens selling pressure should
pick up INTENSELY and stocks should absolutely collapse. This rally has
occurred on nothing but fumes and short-covering. The only thing holding back
the sellers is the Fed’s OBVIOUS intervention. But at some point, even this
will prove irrelevant just as it did in 2008. Disclosure: None’
Brace
Yourselves For Disappointing Quarterly Earnings Harding Nucor's
Daniel DiMicco is one of many CEOs with unpleasant news about third-quarter
earnings With only a few more days to the end of the quarter the market’s
attention will turn ahead to the third quarter earnings reporting season, which
traditionally begins with Alcoa’s earnings, due out on October 7. In what has
appeared to be a conundrum for several months, Wall Street has been raising its
earnings estimates for the third quarter while at the same time economists and
even the Federal Reserve have been bringing down their estimates of economic
growth quite dramatically. While we will have to wait awhile to see how those
seemingly opposite outlooks actually reconcile, the third quarter earnings
“warning” period is already underway and seems to be providing clues.
Typically, only 20% to 25% of companies pre-announce results, and according to
Thomson Reuters, so far 112 of the 500 companies in the S&P 500 have
already issued pre-announcements. Of those, only 34 have said their
third-quarter earnings will beat Wall Street’s estimates, while 78 have warned
they will not. That 2.3 to 1 ratio is running considerably more negative than
the second quarter earnings warning period when the ratio of positive and
negative preannouncements was 1 to 1. Special
Offer: Dividends don’t lie the way corporate earnings surely can. Click
here for dozens of undervalued blue chips with superior financial stability,
growth prospects and yields..in Investment Quality Trends.
Confused
and Conflicted Markets Nyaradi
“If you’re not confused, you’re not paying attention.” -- Tom
Peters Certainly, management guru
Tom Peters’ quote could apply to last week’s market action as we saw significant
moves in both directions only to end up at about where we started the week when
the markets closed on Friday. The markets do seem confused and conflicted as we
see gold, bonds and stocks all rising in unison. One or more of these
markets has gotten it wrong and sooner or later we’re going to find out which
one it is. Sooner could be as soon as this week with significant economic
reports coming our way. Looking
At My Screens As always, the
chart tells the story: chart courtesy of StockCharts.com In this
chart of the S&P 500 we see RSI at overbought levels and if you look back
to early August and early April, you’ll find similar levels soon followed by
significant declines. In “normal” market conditions you don’t see RSI at
extreme overbought/oversold levels as often as we have lately, but typically,
this is a very reliable indicator when these situations occur. Resistance
marked by the horizontal red line is at the 1150 level and a break above here
would indicate higher prices ahead. In the bottom display, the Full Stochastic
is on a “sell” signal and in Overbought territory, and while this can be a
choppy indicator, looking back to April, June and August, we can see similar
levels followed by significant declines. To make matters even more interesting,
one needs to consider these tantalizing facts:
The View from 35,000 Feet
On a fundamental level, the news
remained dismal last week with weekly unemployment rising and Rite Aid (RAD) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) not reaching earnings expectations. The
Senate postponed voting on extending the “Bush Tax Cuts” until after the
election which adds uncertainty to the picture and Ireland slipped into a
double dip recession with a contraction in its 2nd Quarter GDP. Existing home
prices declined in July by -0.5% and the FOMC said it stands ready with more
quantitative easing, effectively telegraphing a move in that direction at their
next meeting. August Durable goods orders declined -1.3% from the previous
+0.7% and August New Home sales rose, although this was the second worst report
on record and so offers small comfort to the beleaguered real estate market.
But stocks rallied on Friday on the hope of the “Bernanke Put” which says that
the Fed will not let asset prices decline even if it means trashing the U.S.
dollar for the rest of our lifetimes. That possibility, of course, is why gold
is rallying through the psychologically important $1300 level. While a record,
gold still stands far below its all time inflation adjusted high of $2318 and
so could still have lots of room left to run.
Household net worth declined $1.5
Trillion in the 2nd Quarter and now stands 15% below its 2006 peak.
What It All Means
It’s now the Federal Reserve and the
central banks of the world marshaled against a growing tide of deflation and
economic deceleration. The record of success of quantitative easing is spotty
at best and so we can only wait to find out if “things are different this
time.”
The Week Ahead
As I mentioned at the outset, today’s
markets are conflicted and confused, however, it’s likely we’ll soon gain some
clarity with significant economic reports coming at us all week.
Pay particular attention to the Q2 GDP
revision and Chicago PMI on Thursday and the blizzard of reports on Friday that
include income, spending, consumer sentiment, construction spending and the all
important ISM, Institute of Supply Manufacturing September report.
These data points should be significant
enough to push markets higher or lower in a meaningful way and so by next
weekend the way forward should be in sharper focus.
Wall Street Sector Selector remains in
the “Red Flag” mode, expecting lower prices ahead.
Economic Reports:
Tuesday:
0900: July Case/Shiller Home Index
1000: September Consumer Confidence
Thursday:
0830: Q2 GDP Revision
0830: Initial Unemployment Claims,
Continuing Unemployment Claims
0945: September Chicago PMI
Friday:
0830: August Personal Income
0830: August Personal Spending
0955: September University of Michigan
Consumer Sentiment Final Report
1000: August Construction Spending
1000: September ISM
1400: September Car/Truck Sales
Sector Spotlight:
Leaders: Bonds, Thailand, Peru
Laggards: Regional Banks, Real Estate, Financial
Services
Disclosure: SEF, SH, VXX,
SPY Put Option
This is still an especially
great opportunity to sell / take profits! There’s an old axiom that remains as true today as ever;
viz., ‘don’t look a gift horse in the mouth’, that is of course unless you’re
of the ‘buy and hold’ mentality. Specifically, if you recall the recent market
rally on the better than expected unemployment numbers from the government,
albeit false data based on estimates that of course were as true as ‘bernie
madoff is a reliable, trustworthy, seasoned professional with whom to entrust
your money for investment’. The unemployment numbers just came in decidedly
worse than expected (and in the ‘wrong direction’, that spin accorded ‘down but
not as bad as before’ b*** s*** ) yet the market has this day rallied like no
tomorrow with used home foreclosure / distressed sales the other ‘heralded’
good news. This is about keeping the suckers sucked in for now, and window
dressing for the month and the 3rd quarter which can be and is manipulated,
particularly with computerized (and high frequency) trades and which
commissions they’ll get again on the way down. There is nothing to support
these overbought stock prices, fundamentally or otherwise. These are desperate
criminals ‘at work’. Even wall street shill Buffett is saying we’re still in a
recession (depression) Buffett: We're Still in a Recession [ Wow! A moment of lucidity from Buffet
which belies his prior ‘rosy wall street shill talk’, but his greater candor is
welcomed nonetheless although the ‘d’ (for depression) word is more appropriate
and accurate.] Roche ‘Warren
Buffett disagrees with the NBER. He says we’re still in a recession and likely
to remain in a recession for quite a while. These comments are far more
tempered than the ones that were published last week. Of
course, my favorite part in this clip is where he says the U.S. government did
the right thing in responding to the crisis. They certainly did the right thing
for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) shareholders.
Whether or not they did the right thing for America is a whole other story…’ [
And, of course we now know that it wasn’t the right thing for america … The question inevitably becomes, ‘Who’s
manipulating who, what, and why? After all, we know defacto bankrupt america’s
pervasively corrupt! ]
On
the Secret Committee to Save the Euro, a Dangerous Divide Two months after
Lehman Brothers collapsed in the fall of 2008, a small group of European
leaders set up a secret task force—one so secret that they dubbed it “the group
that doesn’t exist.”
Downhill With the GOP
New York Times ‘Once upon a time, a Latin American political
party promised to help motorists save money on gasoline. How? By building
highways that ran only downhill.’
Paul Krugman
’I’ve always liked that story, but the truth is that the party received hardly
any votes. And that means that the joke is really on us. For these days one of
America’s two great political parties routinely makes equally nonsensical
promises. Never mind the war on terror, the party’s main concern seems to be
the war on arithmetic. And this party has a better than even chance of retaking
at least one house of Congress this November.
Banana republic, here we come.
On Thursday, House Republicans released their “Pledge to America,” supposedly
outlining their policy agenda. In essence, what they say is, “Deficits are a
terrible thing. Let’s make them much bigger.” The document repeatedly condemns
federal debt — 16 times, by my count. But the main substantive policy proposal
is to make the Bush tax cuts permanent, which independent estimates say would
add about $3.7 trillion to the debt over the next decade — about $700 billion
more than the Obama administration’s tax proposals…’
National / World
Army
censors photos of Afghan corpses in ‘kill-for-sport’ trial Evidently
worried about a repeat of the anger aimed at US forces over photos of torture
at Abu Ghraib prison, the US military is restricting access to photos of Afghan
corpses in the “kill-for-sport” trial of five US soldiers.
It Is Official:
The US Is a Police State “Violent extremism” is one of those undefined
police state terms that will mean whatever the government wants it to mean. In
this morning’s FBI’s foray into the homes of American citizens of conscience,
it means antiwar activists, whose activities are equated with “the material
support of terrorism,” just as conservatives equated Vietnam era anti-war
protesters with giving material support to communism.
Drudgereport: KRUGMAN:
BRING ON THE DEFAULTS...
Banks
Keep Failing, No End in Sight...
PILOTS
SHOCK CLAIM: Aliens have deactivated nuke missiles...
Confession
Video: US Soldier Describes Thrill Kill of Innocent Afghans...
UN
to appoint space ambassador to greet aliens...
GOP
targets federal workers' pay (Washington Post) Issue becomes midterm flash point in wake of high
unemployment, stagnant private-sector wages.
Poll:
Are federal government salaries too high? [ The obviousness of the answer
to this question brings to mind such rhetorical queries as ‘do bears s*** in
the woods’ and ‘is the Pope Catholic’,
etc.. Of course, unequivocally responding in the affirmative does not do
justice either to the obvious response or to the preposterousness of the sense
of importance attached to these so-called employees who have to be considered
the most over-paid, incompetent, and most cases corrupt (all 3 branches of the
u.s. government included, along with the fed, etc.) and lazy employees
anywhere, anytime. Indeed, given the damage they’ve done, they should be paying
the taxpayers! ]
Pearlstein:
It may be time to get back into stocks (Washington Post) [ Wow! With all
the documented criminality, manipulation, computerized high-frquency programmed
trades and fundamentals that make each uptick a walk through Alice’s
Wonderland, one may only scratch their head and ask of Mr. Pearlstein, will you
be the one left holding the hot potato in musical-chairs-like fashion and
hence, making ‘roughly wrong or precisely wrong’ distinctions without a
difference. There is nothing underpinning this overbought / overvalued stock
market but hot air, outright lies / fraud, and a déjà vu scenario that once
again as consistent with George Santayana’s admonition ("Those who cannot remember
the past are condemned to repeat it.") has eluded the masses (wall streets
a**es).]
Obama reaches out to Iran with multiple
messages (Washington Post) [
This is closer to the correct approach, conciliatory, especially in light of
israel’s summarily and haughtily dismissing even the suggestion of or adherence
to the Non-Proliferation Treaty as not in israel’s interest, the war crimes,
violation of u.n. resolutions, flotilla murders, sinking of uss liberty/sailor
murders, etc.. However, truth be told, I was dismayed and somewhat disheartened
by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s confusion ( evincing a lack of understanding ) and
hope the same a slip of tongue and correct him as follows: ‘9-11 was that
‘pearl harbor event’ heralded and sought by the neo-cons (don’t forget, there
were orders for NORAD to stand down that day, symmetrical implosion, 9-11
truth, etc.) that facilitated a huge abrogation of rights (ie., Patriot Act, etc.),
a diversion of funds to the military industrial complex among other lunatics,
ie., cia, nsa, etc., but was not intended to nor did it help the u.s. economy;
but helping the militant zionist israeli regime was indeed a goal and the
cheers of the mossad agents on the banks of the Hudson in Weehawken, n.j.
viewing the burning towers are testament to the truth of that part of his
statement. ]
The Bulls Are
Looking Tired by John Nyaradi ‘Today's Indicators:
Negative action in the U.S. markets and
around the world yesterday left me with the distinct impression that the bulls
are getting tired.
On a fundamental basis, the bad news
was headlined by that pesky unemployment problem just won’t go away with a rise
in weekly claims yesterday, while on the corporate front, Rite Aid (RAD) and
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) got whacked for not meeting earnings
expectations and Blockbuster (BBI) filed for bankruptcy.
The Senate decided they didn’t want to
deal with the soon to expire “Bush Tax Cuts” until after the election which
inserts more than a hint of uncertainty as well as a “ticking clock” into this
all important situation.
Overseas storm clouds continued gathering
(yet again) as Ireland is in a confirmed double dip with its 2nd Quarter GDP
contracting while Germany’s growth slowed more than expected.
Finally, battle scarred veteran Paul
Volcker summed it all up by saying that “the financial system is broken” and
that it is “so difficult to get out of this recession because of the basic
disequilibrium in the real economy.” (Mr. Volcker obviously doesn’t watch
financial television.)
On the technical front, the S&P
sliced right back down through the 1130-1135 level that had provided such
strong resistance and now was supposed to be support and thus broke the upwards
trend line in place since the beginning of the early September rally.
Yesterday’s close at 1124 leaves the
index 8 points above its 200 Day Moving Average, the widely accepted
demarcation line of bull and bear markets.
Internals continue to weaken in terms
of breadth, Advance/Decline line, and Up/Down Volume, all indicating lack of
strength in the upwards direction.
Today we get Durable Goods and New Home
Sales but looming ever larger next week are some huge reports that we’ll
discuss in detail on the weekend report.
For today, Wall Street Sector Selector
remains in the “Red Flag” mode, expecting lower prices ahead.
Disclosure: SH, SEF, EFZ, VXX, SPY Put
Option’
This is an especially great
opportunity to sell / take profits! There’s an old axiom that remains as true today as ever; viz.,
‘don’t look a gift horse in the mouth’, that is of course unless you’re of the
‘buy and hold’ mentality. Specifically, if you recall the recent market rally
on the better than expected unemployment numbers from the government, albeit
false data based on estimates that of course were as true as ‘bernie madoff is
a reliable, trustworthy, seasoned professional with whom to entrust your money
for investment’. The unemployment numbers just came in decidedly worse than
expected (and in the ‘wrong direction’, that spin accorded ‘down but not as bad
as before’ b*** s*** ) yet the market has this day rallied like no tomorrow
with used home foreclosure sales the other ‘heralded’ good news. This is about
keeping the suckers sucked in for now, and window dressing for the month and
the 3rd quarter which can be and is manipulated, particularly with computerized
(and high frequency) trades and which commissions they’ll get again on the way
down. There is nothing to support these overbought stock prices, fundamentally
or otherwise. These are desperate criminals ‘at work’. Even wall street shill
Buffett is saying we’re still in a recession (depression) Buffett: We're
Still in a Recession [ Wow!
A moment of lucidity from Buffet which belies his prior ‘rosy wall street shill
talk’, but his greater candor is welcomed nonetheless although the ‘d’ (for
depression) word is more appropriate and accurate.] Roche ‘Warren Buffett disagrees with the NBER. He says
we’re still in a recession and likely to remain in a recession for quite a
while. These comments are far more tempered than the ones that were
published last week. Of course, my favorite part in this clip is
where he says the U.S. government did the right thing in responding to the
crisis. They certainly did the right thing for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
shareholders. Whether or not they did the right thing for America is a whole
other story…’ [ And, of course we now know that it wasn’t the right thing for
america … The question inevitably
becomes, ‘Who’s manipulating who, what, and why? After all, we know defacto
bankrupt america’s pervasively corrupt! ] … Then of course there’s been the
full-moon-effect which enhances the lunacy already typical of the frauds on
wall street.
Economists Herald New Great
Depression The world is currently
experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression, according to a
prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others now forecasting
ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.) , and my position and that of demographer Dent (This is a global
depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up
move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has
been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with
great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell
into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam /
fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will
not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are
criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.
Krugman: It's All Downhill From
Here Cullen Roche Love him or hate him
Paul Krugman has been awfully right with regards to the macro picture in the
last few years. He’s one of the rare economists who had the foresight to see
the housing bubble and the likelihood of economic downturn that would result
from it. Krugman recently caused a stir when he said the US economy was headed
for the third depression. He isn’t back down from that outlook:
I’ve had a couple of conversations
lately with people who follow politics and public affairs, but aren’t that
close to the economic discussion — and I’ve discovered that there are two
comforting delusions still out there.
Delusion #1 is that we’re on the road
to recovery, just more slowly than we’d like; to be fair, the White House keeps
saying this.
But it’s not at all true. GDP is
growing below potential; employment, even if you focus just on private
employment, is growing more slowly than the working-age population. If you ask
how long it will take us to return to, say, 5 percent unemployment on the
current track, the answer is forever.
Delusion #2 is the belief that the
stimulus may yet do the trick, because there are still substantial funds
unspent. I tried to deal with this last year.
The level of GDP depends not on total funds spent, but on the rate at which
funds are being spent, which has already peaked; GDP growth on the rate of
change in the rate at which funds are being spent, which peaked last year. It’s
all downhill from here.
Harry
Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012). ]
Examining
the Current Market: No Fear Slusiewicz ‘…On Friday 98% of the S&P 500 companies were up.
Generally fast run ups like the one we’ve just gone through, followed by
exponential blow offs like what we witnessed on Friday causes me to take a more
cautious point of view. It seems that the Fed is attempting to juice the
markets with their Permanent Open Market Operations. This week alone the
Federal Reserve purchased $11.15 Billion worth of various US Treasury
securities from the seven primary banks. What the banks did what that immediate
boatload of cash is unknown, but one would suspect that a portion of those
founds found its way into the stock market. The alternative is to believe that
the negative, but less bad durable goods order number and the second worst
ever, but still improved from July’s all time low, new home sales drove the markets
up 2% on Friday…’
Fridays Rally Makes No Sense at
All Reitmeister ‘Thursday Reity Says: “For now,
let’s just assume a healthy little pullback is in store and we’ll take the rest
as it comes.“
Friday Reity enjoys foot in mouth sandwich for lunch.Why did the
market explode higher on Friday? Maybe because it often does the exact opposite
of what makes sense.Yes, you might read articles that say the Durable Goods
report was the reason for the market to roar higher. Hey folks, it wasn’t that
good, or durable, of a report to make investors feel like our economy is in
great shape.
Some other experts may point out that this is a short covering
rally. Meaning the hedge funds and traders are taking their money out of recent
shorts that are now going awry and that creates additionally buying pressure
that moves up the market in the short run. Perhaps that has some validity.And
some other experts will talk about how we have gone above key technical levels
that are bullish indicators. (Hey, weren’t these same technicians boo-hooing
about the Hindenburg Cross just a few weeks ago and how that spelled doom for
the market?)
Add it all up and we see why investing is so tricky. And why
it’s hard to be 100% bullish or 100% bearish sometimes. The key is to strike a
good balance between the possibilities of what might happen. Meaning that when
you invest you have to realize there are good odds you can be wrong. So best to
hedge your bets a little to realize that the other side of the argument may
have some credence.
My Two Cents
(During the day I read many other investment articles of
interest. Here are links to some new ones with my 2 cents added underneath).
Most (And Least)
Valuable Global Brand NamesWhat's funny is that there is very little
correlation between a highly respected brand and share price appreciation.
Probably because most of these brands are former growth stories that are now
much larger and the PE keeps getting compacted to get in line with current
growth expectations. Certainly true for MSFT over the last several years. And
for GOOG's underperformance this year (by the way, I think that move is way
overdone and time to buy GOOG which is now a nice large cap GARP stock).
Goldman's 10 Stocks
for Dividend Growth
Is this the best set of 10 dividend yielding stocks? Probably
not.
The more important issue is that probably any combination of 10
high yielding stocks will outperform the low yielding 10 year Treasury over
that 10 year stretch.
Warren Buffett: The
Recession Is Not Over
Its a recognition that corporations can quickly cut costs and
improve profitability making it seem like "alls well". However, John
& Joan Q. Public are the "cost that gets cut" and for them the
recession is alive and kicking.
News
for bank failures september 24, 2010 Regulators
close banks in Florida, Washington Ryan Holeywell | September 24, 2010 8:59 PM Regulators closed banks in Florida and
Washington Friday night, bringing the total number of bank failures to 127 ... Bank Failure Friday - September 24, 2010
- Happy Failure
Friday Everyone! With the approach of the election season, Barry and his
"crack" financial team (those who haven't announced ... FDIC: Federal
Deposit Insurance Corporation Bank Closing Information - September 24, 2010 ... Complete Failed Bank List · Failed Financial
Institution Contact Search · Bank Failures in Brief ...
Housing and Jobs and Leading
Economic Indicators...Oh My!
European Debt Worries Resurface
Look Out
Below! Harding ‘…And at a time when last week’s
weekly AAII investor sentiment poll showed 50.9% bullish? That’s the highest
level of bullishness and complacency since it reached 54.6% bullish in October,
2007 near the October, 2007 top of the 2003-2007 bull market. The other higher
reading was 53.3% bullish on May 1, 2008, as the market ended a bear market
rally and plunged into its unfavorable season leg down of 2008. Other readings
not quite as high, but at interesting times: The poll reached 49.2% bullish
just prior to the Jan/Feb correction this year, and 48.5% bullish at the April
top this year …’
Drudgereport: FBI Serves 'Terrorism' Warrants in Chicago,
Minneapolis...
...raids homes of war protesters
Justice Official Calls Dismissal of Black Panther Case
'Travesty'...
...Says Dept. Discourages 'Race Neutral' Enforcement
of Laws...
PAPER: QUEEN TRIED TO USE STATE POVERTY FUND TO HEAT
BUCKINGHAM PALACE...
Blockbuster
goes bust (Washington Post ) [ Sounds like a plan! … The new america plan …
Drudgereport: Zuckerman:
The American Dream Has Become a Nightmare... Buffett:
'We're still in a recession'... ] The video retailer filed for bankruptcy after it
failed to stand up to competition from the likes of Netflix.
Chaos
in the nation's foreclosure system (Washington Post ) [ Is that all? If
only the chaos was only in the defacto bankrupt nation’s foreclosure system;
that would be something to cheer. Unfortunately, corruption in america is
pervasive, systemic, structural and the chaos is a growth factor in the most
negative sense ]Ally Financial's
decision to halt home evictions in 23 states brought to light troubles in the
overburdened foreclosure system including faked documents, forged signatures
and lenders who take shortcuts.
Obama
focuses on human rights
[Washington Post ] At U.N., president urges nations to "not stand idly
by" when those values, democracy are threatened [ except when defacto
bankrupt america is doing the threatening, which is usually the case, and if
you’re white … ( UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE
BIAS AT JUSTICE... CIVIL RIGHTS PANEL TO PURSUE
FED PROBE IN BLACK PANTHER CASE... ex-Justice official quit over the handling of a voter
intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party accused his former
employer of instructing attorneys in the civil rights division to ignore cases
that involve black defendants and white victims US v. AZ... Cases
against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud Obama broke promises ) ] .
Recession
is far from over for many Americans (Washington Post ) [ Many? How ‘bout
most all! Beyond the election / incumbent desperation act / rhetoric. ] Buffett: We're Still in a Recession [ Wow! A moment of lucidity from Buffet
which belies his prior ‘rosy wall street shill talk’, but his greater candor is
welcomed nonetheless although the ‘d’ (for depression) word is more appropriate
and accurate.] Roche ‘Warren Buffett
disagrees with the NBER. He says we’re still in a recession and likely to
remain in a recession for quite a while. These comments are far more tempered
than the ones that were published last week. Of
course, my favorite part in this clip is where he says the U.S. government did
the right thing in responding to the crisis. They certainly did the right thing
for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
shareholders. Whether or not they did the right thing for America is a whole
other story…’ [ And, of course we now know that it wasn’t the right thing for
america … The question inevitably
becomes, ‘Who’s manipulating who, what, and why? After all, we know defacto
bankrupt america’s pervasively corrupt! ]
Look Out Below! Harding ‘…And at a time when last week’s weekly AAII investor sentiment poll
showed 50.9% bullish? That’s the highest level of bullishness and complacency
since it reached 54.6% bullish in October, 2007 near the October, 2007 top of
the 2003-2007 bull market. The other higher reading was 53.3% bullish on May 1,
2008, as the market ended a bear market rally and plunged into its unfavorable
season leg down of 2008. Other readings not quite as high, but at interesting
times: The poll reached 49.2% bullish just prior to the Jan/Feb correction this
year, and 48.5% bullish at the April top this year …’
Thursday
Market Outlook: Listening to Herbert Hoover
‘Red
Flag: We Expect Lower Prices Ahead
Daily Technical Sentiment Indicators: Optimistic (Bearish)
Short Term Market Condition: Overbought (short term bearish)
Short Term Trend: Up
Medium Term Trend: Down
Long Term Trend: Down
So
far, this week’s news and market action looks decidedly deflationary and even
depression-like and so I went back in time to see what President Herbert
Hoover, often blamed for the Great Depression, had to say about his times and
to see what we might be able to learn from him about the times we live in.
Some
of his most prescient and applicable quotes were:
“Let
me remind you that credit is the lifeblood of business, the lifeblood of prices
and jobs.” (Certainly an issue today and our money center banks should pay
heed)
“It
is just as important that business keep out of government as that government
keep out of business.” (No doubt about it. Every policy maker in America needs
to understand this.)
I’m
the only person of distinction who has ever had a depression named for him.”
(President Obama might be the second.)
“Economic depression cannot be cured by legislative action or
executive pronouncement. Economic wounds must be healed by the action of the
cells of the economic body – the producers and consumers themselves.”
(Dr.
Bernanke and his colleagues really need to “get” this one, and judging from
what I’m reading this week, I’m not sure they do.)
And,
finally, old Herb had a morbid sense of humor when he said, “Blessed are
the young for they shall inherit the national debt.” (Unfortunately still
too true today.)
So apparently
as the old saying goes: “The more things change, the more they stay the same.”
This
week so far has been more than a little spooky and reminiscent of Herbert
Hoover’s times as we listened to Dr. Bernanke and the FOMC warn of deflation
and further quantitative easing and then read today’s housing report which
indicated that home prices declined in July by -0.5%.
The
FOMC said that “the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in
recent months…and that “employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing
starts are at a depressed level. Bank lending has continued to contract, but at
a reduced rate in recent months.”
“Measures
of underlying inflation are currently at levels somewhat below those the
Committee judges most consistent, over the longer run, with its mandate to
promote maximum employment and price stability…..the Committee will continue to
monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and is prepared to
provide additional accommodation if needed to support economic recovery and to
return inflation, over time, to levels consistent with its mandate.”
So
in a nutshell, deflation is a major concern, the $1.5 Trillion the Fed has
thrown on this fire has failed to work and now they stand ready to throw more
money at this problem in hopes of keeping our economic ship from sinking.
It’s
clear what the market thinks of all of this as Treasury bonds continue to rally
and gold heads for the stratosphere. Equities cheered Dr. Bernanke’s comments
at first but then, realizing that deflation is a bad thing, settled back down
to well below the top of the recent range.
One
only needs to look at history to see that government efforts have little impact
on ending depressions and deflation. The Great Depression didn’t end until the
onset of World War II and Japan is a prime example of the ongoing failure of
quantitative easing policies as they enter their second “lost decade.”
Today
comes the jobs report, home sales and leading economic indicators and we’ll see
if any light shines from this most recent data.
Technically,
markets remain overbought and due for a correction and so from a fundamental,
technical and seasonal perspective, we are in treacherous waters for sure.
We
need to learn from Herbert Hoover’s words and experience or fall victim to
George Santayana’s famous warning, “Those who do not remember the past are
condemned to repeat it.”
Wall
Street Sector Selector remains positioned to the “short” side of the market,
expecting choppy to lower prices ahead.
Disclosure: SH, EFZ, SEF, SPY put option’
Am
I Too Bearish? [ In a word, No! ] Cullen Roche ‘1) Am I too bearish? Some commenters have noted that I seem
a bit too bearish all the time. Some have even gone so far as to imply that I
am a permabear. These are fair comments, but require some clarification. The
other day I mentioned my top down approach to the markets. Most of
what I write about here at Pragmatic Capitalism is a macro view. Therefore, you
get a heavy dose of macro with a dollop of micro. I am of the belief that we
are in a secular bear and a balance sheet recession. Therefore, you get a
pretty heavy dose of bearish arguments thrown at you. Nonetheless, I try to
balance the site out with some of the more reasonable bullish arguments. What I
am not, however, is a permabear. Within this macro outlook I have been bullish
at many of the most opportune moments in the last few years. Most notable was my bottom call on March 8th when everyone in
the universe was negative and I said the government was about to engage in an
unprecedented market intervention that would be bullish for stocks. More
recently on September 1st I was asked specifically if I was shorting the
market. My response:
Ideally I would, however, I think it’s
dangerous to build shorts right now. If the market is about to collapse then
it’s about the most widely known collapse ever. Markets don’t tank when
everyone is this bearish unless there is some sort of extreme event (which
isn’t occurring currently). I think the April period when I was very negative
(and short) is a great example.
I have actually been looking for a spot
to get long even though my macro outlook is negative (which it has been for
several years)…
Now, in fairness, I did not buy for my
macro equity strategy so don’t take this as some form of revisionist history
where I am patting myself on the back for a trade that never occurred. On
September 2nd I got what I later referred to as a “soft buy signal” as opposed
to a conviction buy signal (more on this below). In hindsight it’s easy to say
that I should have had more conviction in the signal and simply bought stocks,
but that’s not my modus operandi. As I have previously explained, I have rules
within my micro outlook that guide my various strategies and approaches. I
trade the indicators (in this case a proprietary algorithm) and not the market.
My rules tell me when to buy, sell and short. If my strict rules are not met I
do not act.I have often referred to myself as a lion in the grass. The lion is
not greedy. She does not just run wildly across the plains chasing antelope
(thinking of day traders here). Instead, she devises a plan and lies in wait as
the plan unfolds to her liking. If the environment is not right she does not
act. There is too much at stake for her to make mistakes and risk losing a meal
that might feed an entire pride for weeks or months. My mentality is no
different. I am not frantically trading therefore you get a small dose of my
trading perspective. Instead, I am measuring the risk environment day by day
waiting for the antelope to step just close enough so I can react in a way that
gives me very good odds of being right, fat and well fed for many months.
2) Quantifying the disequilibrium. As I previously mentioned, I use
several strategies. One of these is global macro, however, it has never been my
strong suit. It never has been, but it is an approach I have grown increasingly
confident about in recent years (a little luck in a tough market environment
apparently results in a bit of hubris). Within this strategy I have an equity
component. I use dozens of different indicators that measure the markets on a
daily basis. These indicators are best summed in an indicator I call quantified
disequilibrium. It is a short-term indicator that measures whether the market
is excessively risky or not. It combines fundamental analysis with behavioral
finance in an attempt to measure the disequilibrium in the market. Since its
inception in 2008 it has resulted in 74% total returns vs -22% for the S&P
500. Trade win rate is 84%. I have not calculated risk adjusted returns for the
index, but I am certain that they are impressive. Some of its more notable
calls include shorting the market crash of 2008, shorting
the flash crash of 2009 and buying in early March 2009. After issuing a soft
buy signal on September 2nd the index is now flashing the warning signal (but
not a short signal). This does not mean the market is necessarily about to
decline, but merely means that the risk/reward profile has deteriorated
substantially in recent weeks. (chart)
3) Revisiting Swedish models. Some people in this country have a big
problem with Swedish models. I certainly don’t. Throughout much of 2008 I
mentioned that there were two historical approaches to tackling a debt crisis –
the Japan model and the Swedish model. The results were dramatically different.
In essence, the Swedes took their medicine. They bit the bullet, forced the
banks to take losses and helped stem a panic from occurring. The Japan outcome,
as we all know, has not been quite so successful. They allowed zombie banks to
earn their way out of the crisis and largely avoided taking their medicine. On
the consumer front the U.S. has implemented similar strategies. In general cash
for clunkers, homebuyers tax credits, bank bailouts, etc have all been attempts
to paper over he debt problem. It clearly hasn’t worked. We have attempted to
create capitalism without losers. There is no such thing. In September of 2008 I
wrote a letter to the Federal Reserve. It said:
I am writing this letter with regards
to the current banking crisis. As you likely know there is precedent for the
issues we are currently facing. Not only did Japan enter a similar deflationary
period in 1991, but Scandinavia entered an even more similar period around the
same time. I have attached the contact info and a paper with a descriptive
response to the issue by Arne Berggren. I hope you will forward this message to
the appropriate sources as it contains brilliant insight into a situation that
is very similar to our current predicament. And please thank the board for their
hard work during these trying times. http://www.fdic.gov/bank/historical/managing/sym1-09.pdf
I wonder how different the world would
be today if we had allowed more banks to be nationalized (or failed) while
focusing our time and energy on the real crux of this crisis – Main Street.
Instead, we listened to men who were either misguided and/or had a vested
interest in saving the banks (Buffett, Paulson, Geithner, Bernanke, etc). It would
be humorous if it hadn’t hurt so many millions of people. My guess is the
long-term outlook for the U.S. economy would be far better than it is today if
we had not repeated the mistakes of the past.’
Thursday:
Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble [ As is obvious, things are getting quite
dicey on fraudulent wall street and there’s a typical plethora of insanity in
the air (of wall street).] ‘
"I’m
forever blowing bubbles,
Pretty bubbles in the air,
They fly so high, nearly reach the sky,
Then like my dreams they fade and die.
Fortune’s always hiding,
I’ve looked everywhere,
I’m forever blowing
bubbles,
Pretty bubbles in the air."
Gold,
Treasuries,
Junk Bonds,
Netflix (NFLX)
(we shorted them yesterday), Priceline (PCLN)
(we shorted them Monday), Credit
Default Swaps - take your pick of what is
going to be the next bubble to burst.
We shorted TLT
again yesterday ($105) as I sure wouldn’t lend the US money at those rates and
neither, it seems, will the "smart money" guys anymore. The cost
to hedge against losses on U.S. government debt rose to the most in six weeks
as investors bet the Federal Reserve will put more cash into the economy.
Credit-default swaps on U.S. Treasuries climbed 1.7 basis points, the biggest
increase in more than three weeks, to 49.4, according to data provider CMA. The
Fed said Tuesday that slowing inflation and sluggish growth may require further
action. The statement positioned the central bank to expand its near-record
$2.3 trillion balance sheet as soon as their November meeting - just in time
for a Santa Clause boost for the markets.
So why does this
not make us bullish? Well, as
I said to Members on Tuesday, it was an anticipated statement with no
immediate action and we’re at the top of a 10% run for September so, as
I said in yesterday’s post, we anticipate a pullback of 2%, back to our 4%
line (see post). Also in yesterday’s post, I mentioned our IWM
9/30 $67 puts ($1.10) and the DIA Oct $105 puts (.89) both of which were good
for a reload on yesterday’s silly spike, where I said to Members in the 9:56
Alert:
I like the same IWM and DIA puts as yesterday as we
test 10,800 on the Dow - I don’t think it’s going to last. Tomorrow we lose the
usual 450,000 jobs for the week and we have Existing Home Sales at 10, which
can now disappoint as Building Permits were a big upside surprise yesterday. We
also get Leading Economic Indicators at 10 but they are expected up just 0.1%
and I doubt they go negative. Friday we have Durable Goods, which should be
down 2% and New Home Sales at 10, also now set up to disappoint even the very
low 291,000 expected. So caution, caution, caution PLEASE!
I had already mentioned in the morning post that
"bear is the word" and this is where the free readers tend to get
confused because I was all bullish for the beginning of the month but, as I say
often enough and as our Members know very well - I am not bullish, I am
RANGEISH - which is a very different thing. 10,700 is the top of our range and
with the Russell failing to confirm our 5% line at 666 (they hit it but didn’t
hold it) kept us cautious and then we turn to the news flow to see if we’re
going to have the gas to get past our major resistance lines and, so far, no -
we do not.
Right in yesterday’s morning post I said: "The
weak dollar will mask a weak market this morning and that will support
commodities and the commodity pushers in early trading but watch that dollar,
which will likely get bought up by the BOJ at some point and that will send oil
and copper down and those strong sectors will pull back and likely lead us back
down to test our 4% levels at Dow 10,608, S&P 1,112, Nas 2,288, NYSE 7,072
and Russell 660." Just to be clear, I don’t MAKE the markets do these
things - I can only tell you what the market is going to do and how to make
money trading it but I’m not the guy with his hand on the switch, so don’t
blame me. We flip-flop when we have to because the market changes every day and
whether you are a bull or a bear, you are likely to be wrong soon.
Speaking of being wrong, that’s what we were about
gold at the beginning of the week when we looked at GLL for a short position at
$1,280. We are scaling in, of course but, as I said about gold in yesterday’s
chat:
"It’s a bubble. The same statements they are
making now were made about housing and oil and tulips. Just keep in mind that
that doesn’t stop gold from going to $3,000, just like oil went to $147, up 47%
in the last Quarter before it crashed and it ended up all the way at $35 yet
"that time is was different" and 1,000 experts told me I was wrong
for all of ‘07 and ‘08 and, for 75% of that time - THEY WERE RIGHT!"
Even as gold flies up to $1,299 and copper tags
$3.594 in overnight trading, commodities
under management dropped 2.3% last month from a record $300Bn to $293Bn.
This was the first pullback since January as investors withdrew $5Bn from
commodity index swaps - the first monthly decline in 5 years! “There was
concern about the U.S. and concern about China that spooked the market,”
according to Barclays Capital.
There’s even some in-fighting within the Gang of 12
as Morgan Stanley says investors should buy the lowest-rated corporate debt,
while Goldman Sachs says stay away. Bonds graded CCC in the U.S. are the “cheapest”
high- yield securities with “economic data once again beginning to surprise
to the upside,” Morgan Stanley told clients yesterday in a report. Goldman
Sachs says higher-rated speculative-grade debt is the way to go as the economy
decelerates.
And what should we do when mommy and daddy are
fighting like this? Cash out and go stay at a friend’s house is my advice. The
September move may not be over but it sure does look fake at this point and
making 10% in a month is plenty for most people’s year so I’m leaning towards
quitting while we’re ahead and getting prepared to flip aggressively bearish if
our 4% levels don’t hold.
Of course, this is just the follow-through of the
pattern we expected post-Fed (see charts in
Tuesday’s chat) so we’re just going to enjoy the
ride down and we reserve the right to get bullish again (and this does
not affect our long-term, hedged trades, just our directional short-term bets)
- pending earnings reports, of course.
As we expected, jobs are a bust with weekly
unemployment up 12K to 465,000, that’s dipping the US futures about 1% and we
still have Existing Home Sales and Leading Economic Indicators at 10, which
were already reasons we took bearish positions yesterday. The key is going to
be what kind of volume we get on the way down and what levels hold up to give us
a clue of whether we are still at the top of our 10,200, 1,070 range or whether
we indeed can call our former mid-range new floor. Oil broke yesterday, as we
expected (very nice for the OIH puts) and today’s natural gas report at
10:30 is not likely to cheer them up and $73.50 would be a shame to fail. We’ve
been tracking the barrel counts over at the NYMEX in member chat and there is
still quite a stockpile that needs to be worked off - another bearish factor
that’s kept us on our toes as we approached our upside goals.
Asia
was mixed this morning but mostly closed for holidays with the BSE posting yet
another decline. We looked at some BRIC shorts yesterday, including India but I
favored BGZ (ultra-short emerging
markets) to shorting IFN (India ETF), which gives fantastic bang for
the bearish buck.
The
shine is coming off India as they’ve butchered their chance to impress people
by hosting the 54-nation Commonwealth Games, with some countries threatening to
pull out just weeks before training begins. Work for the Games has been plagued
by construction delays, allegations of corruption and friction between
officials of the Games Federation and the local organizing committee. A
heavier-than-usual monsoon season made finishing the work harder. Some
completed venues sprouted bad leaks.
Ireland’s
GDP also sprang a bad leak in Q2 as an
unexpected 1.2% decline casts serious doubts on the country’s ability to
cut the deficit by 3%, feeding concerns over Dublin’s ability to repay it’s
debts without outside help. Although "economists" called it wrong,
the report is pretty much in-line with the IMF’s expectations, which were far
more bearish so not a huge event but worth watching as a sentiment changer,
nonetheless. Private
sector growth dropped 5% throughout the Euro-zone to 53.8, down from 56.2
in August. Above 50 is still growing but, like Ireland’s GDP, these little
set-backs can add up to a change in investor sentiment very quickly.
An
appreciation of 20 percent in China’s currency would cause widespread
bankruptcies in China’s export sector, where firms operate on thin margins, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said on
Wednesday. "The conditions for a major appreciation of the renminbi
do not exist," Wen said in a speech to U.S. businessmen in New York.
He said the appreciation of China’s currency demanded by U.S. lawmakers would
not bring jobs back to the United States because U.S. firms no longer make such
labor-intensive products.
The Premier is in New York to get his ass kissed by
Obama while we pretend to get tough on Chinese currency. As I mentioned last
week, China has stopped bying US Treasuries and, for the moment, Japan is
filling the gap - but how long will that last as Japan is pressured to apply
more stimulus at home?
We’ll be on our toes as we test each of our levels on
the way down. Hopefully those 4% lines will hold, which would be impressive
with all this negative noise. Durable Goods is ahead of the bell tomorrow morning
and it’s very unlikely that report is good and we also get record-low New Home
Sales at 10 so there’s nothing to be bullish about into tomorrow’s open and
next week we see our own GDP along with Case-Shiller, Consumer Confidence,
Personal Income & Spending, ISM and Auto Sales so busy, busy into earnings.
Disclosure: None’
A
Warning for the Bulls Cam Hui ‘As NBER
has declared the recession over and with the SPX decisively rallied
through technical resistance at 1130, traders should be tilting towards the
bullish side, right?Not necessarily. Barry Ritholz posted on the 10 things that make him nervous about the
market. I generally agree with Barry's assesssments and I would like to add a
few more of my own. While I don't have ten items, here is what is bothering me
about stocks at the current levels.
Technicals pointing to economic deterioration
Analyzing relative charts, sectors/industries relative to the market, can tell
you a lot about what the consensus is thinking. Here is the relative chart of
the Morgan Stanley Cyclicals Index: (chart)The chart looks like an inverted
saucer to me - which is bearish. The cyclicals deteriorated through a relative
uptrend in May and are now in a relative downtrend. This is not the picture of
a robust economic recovery.What's more, when I look at housing, as proxied by
XHB against the market, it isn't signalling a rip roaring recovery either.
(chart)As well, the Banking Index looks terrible against the market. This
picture looks a lot like the relative chart of the cyclicals - a relative
downtrend within an inverted saucer top formation. Without leadership from the
Financials, can a new upleg be launched?(chart)For the followers of my Inflation-Deflation Timer mode, I refer to my latest comment indicating that I am getting
very mixed signals. The model has moved to a technical "inflation"
signal. I would tend to discount that signal and remain in "neutral"
because of the anomolous condition of strong commodity prices and falling bond
yields.
Watch out for the double-tip talk
John Hussman has been writing in the last several weeks
about impending deterioration in economic indicators [emphasis added]:
As I've emphasized in recent weeks, the
U.S. economy is still in a normal "lag window" between deterioration
in leading measures of economic activity and (probable) deterioration in
coincident measures. Though the lags are sometimes variable, as we saw in 1974
and 2008, normal lags would suggest an abrupt softening in the September
ISM report (due in the beginning of October), with new
claims for unemployment softening beginning somewhere around mid-October.
It's possible that the historically tight relationships that we've reviewed iin
recent weeks will not hold in this particular instance, but we have no
reasonable basis to expect that. Indeed, if we look at the drivers of economic
growth outside of the now fading impact of government stimulus spending, we
continue to observe little intrinsic activity.
Already, the employment picture is ominous:
US
walks out on Ahmadinejad's UN speech (AP) - The U.S. delegation walked out of the U.N. speech of Iranian
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Thursday after he said some in the world have
speculated that Americans were behind the Sept. 11 terror attacks, staged in an
attempt to assure Israel's survival.
Drudgereport: Spitzer:
Cuomo 'Dirtiest, Nastiest' Of Politicians … but he made mob’s man cuomo his
Cujo / consiglieri attorney general anyway … how pathetic is new york .....
Dead
in Afghan chopper crash were all American...
Jobless
claims rise again...
Welch:
Administration Is 'Anti-Business'...
Zuckerman:
The American Dream Has Become a Nightmare...
Buffett:
'We're still in a recession'...
Military
toughest on Obama
(Washington Post) [ Almost hard to
believe since wobama foolishly, in contravention of campaign pledges and sound
judgment, has given the ‘sullen mullen militants’, also contrary to reason,
everything they’ve asked for and more; kind of a dumbya bush in disguise (but I
believe Woodward). Credit must be given to the three officers - retired Lt.
Gen. Karl W. Eikenberry, retired Gen. James L. Jones and Lt. Gen. Douglas Lute,
the generals tapped for key positions that are traditionally filled by
civilians, for their astute but ignored analysis and courage for standing up to
the darkly dysfunctional sullen mullenights who got their ill-found way. ) ] Bob Woodward's new book presents three
generals in civilian posts as his most skeptical critics.
Large
U.S. paramilitary presence in Afghanistan (Washington Post)
[ Yeah … defacto bankrupt america can really afford it … you know, to
protect (and participate in) their resurgent heroin trade to the benefit of the
few ‘insiders’. ] Existence of covert CIA teams, operating near the Pakistan
border, is revealed in a new book by Bob Woodward and documents released by
WikiLeaks.
GOP
to call for spending freeze (Washington Post) [ Presumably because in defacto bankrupt
america you can’t spend what you don’t have (or can you) which of course hasn’t
stopped them in the past and certainly didn’t stop war criminal dumbya bush, et
als. I don’t believe anything they say; and that’s a bipartisan statement.
]"Pledge to America" illustrates how party would govern if it wins
control of Congress in Nov.
Mourning
in America (Washington Post) [ More
like, ‘mourning america’ while the rest of the world, in light of america’s
fabricated, illegal wars and war crimes is saying, ‘good mourning america’.]
Sucker's
Rally? Reitmeister ‘Why am I trimming profits when the market seems to be
rallying?
Justice:
FBI improperly opened probes
(Washington Post) [ Well, I just
hope they’re as zealous (in probing readily discernible crime) with regard to
my RICO matters and the corruption in the (judicial / legal) process since, in
the final analysis, it will have been the corruption within that will have
brought the nation down irrevocably and totally ] .
9-13-10
Steven M. Martinez,
Assistant Director In Charge
Federal Bureau of Investigation, USDOJ
11000 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 1700
Los Angeles, CA 90024
Dear Sir:
I enclose herewith 3
copies of the within DVD rom autorun disk (which will open in your computer’s
browser) as per your office’s request as made this day (the disk and contents
have been scanned by Avast, McAfee, and Norton which I’ve installed on my
computer to prevent viral attacks / infection and are without threat). I also
include a copy of the DVD as filed with the subject court as referenced therein
(which files are also included on the aforesaid 3 disks in a separate folder
named ‘112208opocoan’). The (civil) RICO action (as you’re aware, the RICO Act
is a criminal statute which provides a civil remedy, including treble damages
and attorney fees, as an incentive for private prosecution of said claims
probably owing to the fact that the USDOJ seems somewhat overwhelmed and in
need of such assistance given the seriousness and prevalence of said violations
of law which have a corrupting influence on the process, and which corruption
is pervasive). A grievance complaint against Coan was also filed concurrently
with the subject action and held in abeyance pending resolution of the action
which was illegally dismissed without any supporting law and in contravention
of the Order of The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge, USDC, District
Connecticut. The files below the horizontal rule are the referenced documents
as filed. (Owing to the damage to the financial interests of both the U.S. and
the District of Congresswoman Roybal-Allard, viz., Los Angeles, the
Qui Tam provisions of the Federal
False Claims Act probably would apply and I would absent resolution seek to
refer the within to a firm with expertise in that area of the law with which I
am not familiar).
The document in 5 pages under penalty of
perjury I was asked to forward to the FBI office in New Haven is probably the
best and most concise summary of the case
RICO
Summary to FBI Under Penalty of Perjury at Their Request (5 pages) [ http://albertpeia.com/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf (
http://albertpeia.com/fbiofficela91310 )
].
The correspondence I
received from Congresswoman by way of email attachment (apparent but typical
problem with my mail) along with my response thereto is included on the 3 disks
as fbicorrespondencereyes.htm . With regard to the
calls to the FBI’s LA and New Haven, CT offices: There was one call to the LA
office and I was referred to the Long Beach, CA office where I personally met
with FBI Agent Jeff Hayes to whom I gave probative evidentiary documents of the
money laundering which he confirmed as indicative of same (he was transferred
from said office within approximately a month of said meeting and his location
was not disclosed to me upon inquiry).
The matter was assigned to FBI Agent Ron Barndollar and we remained in
touch for in excess of a decade until he abruptly retired (our last
conversation prior to his retirement related to the case and parenthetically,
Rudy Giuliani whose father I stated had been an enforcer for the mob to which
he registered disbelief and requested I prove it, which I did – he served 12 years
in prison, aggravated assault/manslaughter? – and no, there is no Chinese wall
of separation – Andrew Maloney’s the one that prosecuted gotti).
In contradistinction
to the statement in said correspondence, there is a plethora of information
including evidence supporting the claims set forth in the RICO
VERIFIED COMPLAINT (see infra). Such includes and as set forth
in the case, inter alia,
There is applicable insurance / surety coverage and neither LA, nor
creditors, nor I should continue to have been damaged by this brazened corrupt
and illegal scenario, which should be resolved in accordance with the
meaningful rules of law apposite thereto.
Sincerely,
Albert L. Peia
611 E. 5th Street, #404
Los Angeles, CA 90013
(213) ******** (cell phone)
(213) 622-3745 (listed land line but there are unresolved problems with
the line, computer connection may be the reason but I hesitate to chance
greater non-performance / worsening by their ‘fix’ so cell phone best for
contact).
A subtler tack to fight Afghan corruption?
(Washington
Post) [ How about a not so subtler tack
to fight corruption starting right here in the u.s. of a. where corruption and
crime are pervasive and in fact, at the root of the Afghanistan problems, from
american reinvigorated heroin trade to bribery attendant thereto to killing
civilians, etc.. Defacto Bankrupt, Meaningfully Lawless,
War Criminal Nation america, the leader of nations … in crime:
Though having but 5% of the world’s population, america can
boast 76% of the world’s serial killers, followed by Europe with England/UK
then Germany leading the way for the eu [excerpt, 6 minute video, Serial
Killers: Real Life Hannibal Lechters http://www.albertpeia.com/realifeamericaserialkillers.mpg (as is consistent with crime generally,
see infra)]. Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive
(defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of
the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern
emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed
employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in
this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense
( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
) ]:
Rank |
|||
# 1
|
11,877,218 |
|
|
# 2
|
6,523,706 |
|
|
# 3
|
6,507,394 |
|
… ]
A
quandary in Afghan corruption fight (Washington Post)
[ Come on! Is this some cruel
joke? Corruption, lawlessness is now synonomous with america. Afghans
question U.S.-style corruption/capitalism (Washington
Post) [ As indeed they should inasmuch as the same is neither capitalism nor
american style in the traditional sense referenced here. Defacto bankrupt, in
decline, and pervasively corrupt, meaningfully lawless america is a nation
unworthy of emulation! ] Kabul Bank became the pride of Afghanistan's
financial system by offering the conveniences and thrills of 21st-century
capitalism. But the scene outside the bank's headquarters Wednesday was far
from that modern ideal.U.S.-backed investigative teams have assembled evidence
of rampant corruption in Afghanistan, and the findings have had unintended
consequences.
Mourning
in America (Washington Post) [ More
like, ‘mourning america’ while the rest of the world, in light of america’s
fabricated, illegal wars and war crimes is saying, ‘good mourning america’.]
Sucker's
Rally? Reitmeister ‘Why am I trimming profits when the market seems to be
rallying?
Market Rallies on 'Recession End': Is This a Joke? Satwaves ‘We learned Monday that the
recession that has gripped this country for the last two and a half years
actually ended in June of 2009. The markets rallied on the news, yet left a lot
of my readers asking what it meant. One of our members whom happens to own over
thirty wireless phone stores for example, explained that before the recession,
a great month meant 150 to 200 activations per store. A good month resulted in
100 to 150 activations per store, while a not-so-good month came in between 80
to 100 activations per store. Since the recession took hold, this subscriber
considers himself lucky to acheive 50 to 65 activations per store, per month.
Not wanting to let go of employees with families, this member continues to pay
his employees out of his own pocket in the hope that things will get better. Is
the recession really over for him? The answer will surprise you. The short
answer is yes. Economists define a recession as two quarters of negative GDP
growth. In layman's terms, it means only that things stopped getting worse as
of June 2009. It does not signify that anything has improved. Think of a
receding hairline if you will. Just because it has stopped receding does not
mean new hair has grown back. For my friend, and millions of small business
owners like him nationwide, things stopped getting worse back in June of 2009.
A bottom had been established. Unfortunately, this is where most Americans find
themselves living these days. The question going forward is how to fix it.
Economists are looking for moderate growth of about 2.6% as we climb out of the
recession. Let's apply this factor to the gentleman in the example above.
Instead of 50 to 65 activations per month, my friend can look forward to that
number increasing to 52 to 67 activations per month over the coming year. This
is not something my friend is happy about, and needless to say he gets quite
upset when he hears people touting the end of the recession. This will not
create jobs. This will not end foreclosures. This will not put an end to the
record number of poverty stricken Americans this country now has to contend
with. There is a solution however, but unfortunately it would require the
politicians on Capital Hill to put aside their differences and actually work
for the benefit of the people they represent. It would require a sitting
Democratic President to accept an idea from his former Republican rival.
Americans want jobs, not unemployment checks and certainly not government programs
designed to acclimate people to a life of poverty. The government can and
should create those jobs, by building nuclear power plants across the country.
Just as job creation in infrastructure lead us out of the great depression, so
too can it lead the country now. By now everyone knows about the troubled
electrical grid our country faces. Oil and coal generate most of the power we
use today. Still, on a hot summer day air conditioning usage results in
blackouts in cities and towns across the nation. A new movement is now underway
which will test our capacities like never before, in the way of the electric
automobile. Where will the power needed come from? I know of one non-public
company for instance that has ordered 6000 such cars. Although the idea was
first presented by a Republican, a Democrat has the ability to say today that
it is a good idea whose time has come. Let both take credit and let America and
its people prosper. Nuclear power plants will create jobs in every field from
architecture and engineering to food service. It will put to work thousands of
carpenters, electricians, plumbers, drywall installers, roofers, landscapers,
excavators and the like who will purchase everything from groceries to shoes
and yes....even that brand new Droid along with a two year activation. Disclosure:
No positions
Investor
'Sugar High' Becomes 'Sugar Crash'
Reitmeister … I am highly amused
by the different reactions that took place after the FOMC Meeting Announcement.
In particular day traders acted like hyperactive children at a birthday party.
Instead of screaming for more cake, candy and cola they pounded the table for
more stimulus. So when they saw the Fed leaning more in that direction they
pushed up the Dow by 100 points in just minutes. Investors came in a bit later
to find the traders crashing from the “sugar high”. You could say that the
investors were like the parents who needed to clean up after the children’s
mess. What investors heard from the announcement was “if the Fed is ready to
use more stimulus, then economy must be a LOT worse off than we suspected”.
From there the traders rally was deflated and the market ended the day in the
red. It will be interesting to see which sentiment prevails going forward …’
The
Great Recession is Over. Long Live the Great Deleveraging Marta ‘… The NBER
declared that the recession that began in December 2007 ended in June 2009. The
18-month recession represents the longest since the end of WWII. The problem
with declaring the recession over is that it suggests an end to the Great
Recession. The term Great Recession relies on a misguided concept of the latest
period of negative growth as a normal downturn in the business cycle, even if
on a global scale. Furthermore, in circumscribing the situation within an
18-month period, the term fails to appreciate the breadth, depth and enormity
of the recent - and ongoing - crisis. Think back on the Great Depression. At
least that phrase contains the word, “depression,” which carries with it the
stigma of a really, really bad, multi-year, economic downturn. However, even
that term proves inadequate … What is
happening right now, and what has been happening in fits and starts since 2000,
is the Great Deleveraging, which in many ways parallels the origins and path of
the Great Depression. From 1991 to 2000, just as from 1918 to 1929, the world
enjoyed the benefits of The End of History (end of the Cold War), known in the
former period as The War to End All Wars. The benefits showed up in the period
of “Irrational Exuberance”, known in the earlier period as the “Roaring ‘20’s.”
The “Crash of ‘29” was mirrored by implosion of the Internet Bubble in 2000.
However, a Depression did not ensue in the ‘00’s because the Fed and the
Federal government responded in exactly the opposite way that they did in 1929
and the early-‘30’s. In 2001-2003, the Fed cut interest rates and the Federal
government cut taxes. An economic recovery ensued. However, just as growth
during the ‘30’s proved ephemeral and sporadic, the recovery of the early- to
mid-‘00’s proved unsustainable. In fact, the above-mentioned policies during
the early-‘00’s, in concert with other government initiatives like “a home for
every American”, increased leverage for large banks, and a failure to regulate
hedge funds, actually caused something of another “roaring ‘20’s” that ended in
tears in 2007 with the collapse of home lending and then hedge funds. The
financial system continued to teeter through 2007, before the start of the
Great Recession, and nearly collapsed in 2008. To those who believe that the
financial collapse is complete and that the end of the Great Recession marks
the end of an economic cycle, if not all our economic woes, you are likely to
be surprised when you look back in 10 to 15 years and discover that the term
Great Recession spans a much longer period than originally thought; just as the
term "Great Depression" has been expanded to an indeterminate end
date. There are several reasons that the Great Deleveraging will continue.
First, the toxins have not been fully purged from the international banking
system, and so financial intermediation will remain significantly impaired.
Second, private citizens have yet to fully delever. For example, in the US,
many individuals and families are slowly bleeding out financially, trying to
offset underemployment in jobs paying considerably less than those lost in the
past two years by slowly draining savings to pay for houses that cannot be
sold. Third, the governments of several nations, as well as the ECB, the Fed
and the IMF, have onboarded or underwritten many of the toxins from the private
financial system. These bailouts, combined with the excesses of government
forays into excessive social welfare programs, will lead to crises in the
future. For example, in the US, government leaders still fail to act on the
insolvencies of social security, Medicare and Medicaid. Instead, they
outrageously create even more healthcare entitlements and promise that there
will be no extra cost. Fourth, some governments, like the U.S. and Japan, have
engaged in fruitless Keynesian stimulus projects that have worsened the
countries’ fiscal situations without providing the hoped-for growth. In fact,
the situation is becoming dire enough that we are beginning to see competitive
quantitative easing, which presents Japan with the specter of yet another
recession, deflation and a third lost decade. As they try to save their own
economy, they will put more pressure on the economies of their trading partners
and competitors. At some point, all the balance sheets, those of individuals,
banks, governments, central banks and extra-national entities like the IMF,
will need to be purged in order to right the global economy. This is the Great
Deleveraging, and it’s got years to run before it finally burns out.’
National / World
IS THE RECESSION
REALLY OVER? , ON TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 21, 2010, 12:29 PM EDT ( link to all charts used in this article )
The National
Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - a panel of economists entrusted with the
responsibility to officially declare the beginning and end of recessions -
declared the end of this recession. But wait, amidst the sound of popping
champagne corks, the snore of complacency and a cheer leading media, you can
hear the economy's distress signals.
THE GOOD
NEWS
But who likes
to hear about gloom and doom. Let's focus on the good news. As per NBER, the
longest recession the country has endured since World War II officially ended
in June 2009 (see chart below). During this recession, the economy has lost
over 7 million jobs while the major market indexes a la Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI),
S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC), and Russell 2000 (Chicago
Options: ^RUT) lost well over 50% of their value. By declaring that the
recession ended 14 months ago, NBER takes advantage of the much-coveted
privilege of evaluating the economy in hindsight, as it did in December 2008
when it declared that the recession had started 12 month earlier. (chart)
Investors
don't have the luxury of placing trades based on hindsight and need to rely on
forward looking data, not the rear view mirror. Based purely on forward looking
indicators, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter predicted the biggest counter
trend rally since the October all-time highs on March 2, 2009 and recommended
buying long and leveraged long ETFs, such as the Financial Select Sector SPDRS
(NYSEArca: XLF - News), Technology Select Sector
SPDRs (NYSEArca: XLK - News), Ultra S&P ProShares
(NYSEArca: SSO - News), Ultra Financial ProShares
(NYSEArca: UYG - News) and many others. Are
forward looking indicators now in line with NBER?
THE BAD NEWS
What does the NBER base its decisions on? To make its determination, the NBER
looks at figures that make up the nation's gross domestic product, incomes,
employment, and industrial activity.
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
Obviously, recent downward revisions to the GDP did not prevent NBER from its
assessment that the recession had ended. The chart below shows recent revisions
to GDP. (chart)
Telling the 15
million unemployed Americans that the recession has ended is like telling a
homeless person that real estate prices (NYSEArca: IYR - News) are about to pick up. It's
ironic at best and cruel at worst.
UNEMPLOYMENT
The chart
below shows the real percentage of unemployed Americans expressed by the U-6
unemployment data, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. With
unemployment near an all-time high, can the recession really be over? (chart)
CONSUMER
SENTIMENT
It is said
that consumer spending makes up about two thirds to three quarters of the
economy. What causes consumer spending? Money flow and confidence in future
growth are often the catalysts. Judging by the unemployment numbers, money flow
is limited. This no doubt has had an effect on consumer confidence. The chart
below shows the Consumer Confidence Index. If the recession is over, why is
confidence near an all-time low? (chart)
Friday's
release of the University of Michigan's Confidence Index was another blow
against the economy. Based on this report, Americans planning to buy a home
have fallen to a five-month low. Also, Americans planning to buy a car
have dropped to the lowest level since December 2008, and 20% of Americans
incomes are at risk of deflating. Not only is the lack of spending power a practical
threat to any economy, it is also a statistical threat to future GDP numbers. A
piece of statistical news that fits into the picture of falling consumer
confidence is that the nation's poverty rate jumped to 14.3%
(datasource:
U.S. Census Bureau). Poverty in the U.S. is defined by a family of four living
on less than $21,954 a year. Currently, 43.6 million Americans fall into this
category. But perhaps this doesn't make a difference, as the government is
counting on the faithful flock of economists that don't see their own demise
and the few thousand Wall Streeters' that cashed in on multi-billion dollar
bonuses to lift the economy.
THE SILVER LINING
Even though the NBER declared this recession over, it doesn't preclude the
occurrence of another recession. According to NBER, if the economy starts
shrinking again, it could mark the onset of a much feared but unexpected
double-dip recession. As the first chart shows, this happened in the early
1980s.
NO DOUBLE DIP
To Wall Street's cheerleaders, the worst-case scenario is that the economy is
stuck between a rock and a hard place as illustrated by this Bloomberg
headline: 'Escaping double dip still means no relief for jobless.' As for
investors, they seem not to care much. Monday saw U.S. stocks (NYSEArca: VTI - News) rally by 1.5%.
International stocks (NYSEArca: EFA
- News) and emerging markets
(NYSEArca: EEM - News) were up 1.5 -1.7%. Even
European stocks (NYSEArca: FEZ
- News) were up, although the
European Central Bank had to intervene to stabilize the Irish bond markets on
Friday. In other words, the ECB had to prevent another Greece-style default. In
fact, does not the emergence of yet another European country defaulting, remind
us of the February - April 2010 rally. This rally occurred on ultra-low volume
and against a backdrop of bad news. It then stopped all of a sudden for
seemingly no specific reason. On April 16, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
warned: 'the pieces are in place for a major decline. We are simply waiting for
the proverbial domino to fall over and set off a chain reaction.' The situation
is similar right now. Even though stocks have broken out of the 1,040 - 1,130
trading range, they have done so on low volume and increased investor optimism.
Within the past three weeks, the percentage of bullish investors tracked by
AAII has soared by 30.15%, to the highest level in over a year. This doesn't
mean that stocks can't inch up a bit further, just as they did earlier in
April, but a look at all pieces of the puzzle doesn't paint the picture of a
new bull market. The October issue of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter evaluates the bullish and bearish
potential of the market with a unique approach, along with corresponding target
levels and profit strategies.
Bulls Go to Extremes: Don't Buy the "Breakout",
Sell It, Prechter Says
Stocks jumped Monday with the Dow rising 1.4% to 10,753 and the S&P
gaining 1.5% to 1143, its highest close in four months. The S&P eclipsing
1130 for the first time since late June would seem to confirm the long-awaited
technical breakout for the index, and could pull many reluctant investors off the
sidelines. "Many automatic buy and sell orders are set around market
milestones such as these, and investors watch those levels closely for clues
about which way the market may go next," the AP reports. But the wise move now is to sell this recent rally, says Robert
Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International. "I think we're getting
ready for another leg on the downside," Prechter says, citing evidence of
what he says are extreme levels of optimism, including:
In addition, Prechter notes volume has been punk during the rally in recent weeks a sign, to him, that buyers lack conviction. The veteran market-watcher says the current environment is similar to the 1930-31 period. "The market can make its high while optimism makes a peak despite the fact you're going stair-step lower," he says. "What we had in May with the ‘flash crash' was the first wave down." Prechter predicts these periods of downturns sandwiched around 4-5 months of recovery "where people think we've hit the bottom" is likely to "go one for quite a long time" until a true bottom is reached well below the March 2009 lows, much less today's levels.
Macro
Insights From Seth Klarman Seth Klarman, the legendary hedge fund manager
at Baupost is increasingly concerned about the macro investing environment.
With the retirements of several prominent hedge fund managers in recent months
he’s clearly not alone in his thinking. In a recent interview (see here
for the entire interview) Klarman provides some excellent macro insights
and explains why he is more worried about the world than he has been in his
entire career. Klarman echoes
comments I have often made here. In effect, the recovery has been almost
entirely artificial and will result in unquantifiable future threats. Klarman
calls the current market a “Hostess Twinkie”:
A Hostess Twinkie is a confection that has made many
childhoods slightly happier, but it is composed of totally artificial
ingredients. My context, of about 6–12 months ago, was that virtually
everything was being manipulated by the government. Nothing was natural in the
markets. Interest rates were held at zero, the government was buying all kinds
of securities—notably, mortgage securities—and who knows what else has ended up
on the Fed’s balance sheet.
We have had lending programs—Troubled Asset Relief
Program (TARP), Cash for Clunkers, and even Cash for Caulkers. We just don’t
know the full extent to which investors have been manipulated. But certainly,
the government wants people to buy equities, to invest so that the market will
move higher, creating a wealth effect or at least eliminating the negative
wealth effect in order to make people feel better about their situation, to
restore a degree of optimism so that the economy might recover.
I am worried to this day about what would happen to
the markets, to the economy if, in the midst of all these manipulations, we
realized that they are, in fact, a Twinkie. I think the answer is that no one
knows, including those in Washington. Will the economy continue to recover and
grow at a healthy rate or will we sink into a double-dip recession? As we can
all see, the high degree of government involvement continues.
Of course, the USA isn’t the only country kicking the
can. Klarman cites the European bailout as another game of government kick the
can:
The European bailout is gargantuan. I doubt it will
work because it kicks the can further down the road and is yet one more
manipulation that encourages people to own securities. It is almost as if our
government is in the business of giving people bad advice: “We are going to
hold rates at zero. Please buy stocks or junk bonds that will yield [an
inadequate] 5 or 6 percent.” In effect, it forces unsophisticated investors to
speculate wildly on securities that are too overvalued.
All of this has Klarman more concerned than he has
ever been. That’s a mouthful from a legend like Klarman who has seen more than
his fair share of cycles:
I am more worried about the world, more broadly, than
I have ever been in my career.
Like myself, Klarman
believes there are unquantifiable repercussions from the bailouts:
I am also troubled that we didn’t get the value out
of this crisis that we should have. The Great Depression led us to a
generation—or even two generations—of changed behavior. I grew up hearing about
how our grandparents had a “depression mentality.” It’s awful to have a
depression, but it’s a great thing to have a depression mentality because it
means that we are not speculating, we are not living beyond our means, we don’t
quit our job to take a big risk because we know we might not get another job. There
is something stable about a country, a society built on those values.
In some sense, from the recent crisis we have
developed a “really bad couple of weeks” mentality, and that’s not enough to
tide us through, teach us to avoid future bubbles, and ensure a strong
recovery.
Klarman isn’t a macro expert (he’s a bottom up
investor), but something just doesn’t pass the sniff test with all these
bailouts. How can the global economy continually bailout the losers without
ever allowing these excesses to truly pass from the system? Klarman says we
will eventually reach a tipping point:
A tipping point is invisible, as we just saw in
Greece. In most situations, everything appears fine until it’s not fine, until,
for example, no one shows up at a Treasury auction. In the meantime, we can be
lulled into thinking all is well, that the United States will always be rated
triple-A. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner speaks as if—at least in his
public statements—he has been lulled into thinking that the United States will
always be triple-A. That kind of thinking guarantees that someday the United
States will no longer be triple-A. A sovereign deserves to be rated triple-A
only if it has valuable assets, a good education system, a great
infrastructure, and the rule of law, all of which are called into question by
an eroding infrastructure, a government that changes the law or violates it
whenever there is a crisis, and a legislature that shows no fiscal
responsibility. There is an old saying, “How did you go bankrupt?” And the
answer is, “Gradually, and then suddenly.” The impending fiscal crisis in the
United States will make its appearance in the same way.
Klarman finds the current environment particularly
difficult because many of the hedges that have been working are more
speculative in nature. He finds little value in most commodities (with the
exception of land) because commodities offer no real cash flow and instead rely
almost entirely on some future “greater fool” buying the asset from you.
Klarman makes an exception with gold, however:
Gold is unique because it has the age-old aspect of
being viewed as a store of value. Nevertheless, it’s still a commodity and has
no tangible value, and so I would say that gold is a speculation. But because
of my fear about the potential debasing of paper money and about paper money
not being a store of value, I want some exposure to gold.
Klarman sees all of this government intervention
resulting in higher rates of inflation:
I think the odds are low that such high inflation
will happen in the near future, but looking ahead five years, it becomes more
likely, although certainly not a 50/50 chance. With a very limited initial
outlay, I think a hedge like ours is a reasonable protection.
Ultimately, the downside of the current bailout fever
comes in the form of an intangible risk. Capitalism without losers is like
Catholocism without hell. Klarman sees no way of avoiding future collapses
given that we’ve never actually been forced to learn from our past collapses:
Essentially, the problem is that government
intervention interfered with the lessons investors needed to learn. Those who
stared into the metaphorical abyss are right back at it, with the possible
exception of college endowments, for whom the pain has been long lasting because
of their spend rate. Almost everybody else is drinking the Kool Aid again, and
it is very troubling. We could have another serious collapse, and people would
again not be prepared for it.
Secular Bear Market Myths, Part 2 Claassen In yesterday's Secular Bear
Market Myths Part 1 we debunked the myth that a secular bear
market requires poor earnings growth. In part two, we illustrate the typical
price pattern of a thirteen to sixteen year secular bear market and use that
pattern to provide a near term and long term Market Outlook. The market may be
nearing a critical juncture. If you want to know what to expect, read on ….
A Secular Pattern
Inflation Adjusted (Real) S&P 500 Index 1953-1991 (chart)
After adjusting for inflation, both the high inflation driven
secular bear markets and the deflation driven secular bear markets take on a
more similar form. This is especially true when a secular bear market is
defined as the period between the peak and trough of the average P/E ratio.
Using the numbers on the above chart we see that from the 1966 peak in the P/E
ratio [1] (see chart of Shiller’s CAPE in first report) to the 1982 low [4] was
sixteen years. Both the nominal and real price peak was in late 1968, thirteen
years from the 1982 low. This is indicative of the typical secular bear market;
a period of sixteen to thirteen years.
There are seven years between the two peaks [1] and [2] along with
two major declines [3]. After the second major decline, there is a relief rally
[R], then a multi-month trading range as a period of distribution, followed by
a multi-year decline to complete the bear market [4].
S&P Composite 1917-1951 with Present S&P 500 (chart)
We can see a similar pattern of behavior in the deflationary bear
market of the 1930’s. Yes, the market overlay in orange is our present S&P
500. We will get to that next.
Like the inflation adjusted 1970’s (and 1900-1921) the major highs
and lows follow a pattern. The entire period from 1929 to 1942 encompasses
thirteen years. The two major tops [1] and [2] are seven years apart. There are
two major declines [3], a relief rally [R] followed by a prolonged sideways
period, and finally a decline to complete the bear market [4].
The 2000 - 2016? Bear Market
Overlaid in orange on the above chart is the current S&P 500
with the P/E ratio peak in 2000 lined up with the P/E ratio peak in 1929. Not
surprisingly, the peak [2] and troughs [3] all line up within a couple of
months of their 1930’s counterparts. It appears the rally from the March ’09
low was the relief rally [R]. If our current S&P 500 follows the same path
as these previous bear markets, we should expect a prolonged sideways period
and decline to final low of the bear market sometime in-between 2013 and 2016.
As illustrated in the historical chart of the S&P Composite, when this
secular bear market is complete the trailing Shiller CAPE ratios should be
under ten. The higher the earnings from now until that time, the less the
market will need to decline to complete this period and move into the next secular
bull market. Conversely, the lower the earnings, the more the market averages
would need to decline to meet their sub 10 trough in the index P/E ratio.
Inflation Adjusted (Real) S&P 500 1959-1983 with Current Inflation
Adjusted S&P 500 (chart)
As nicely as the current bear market has fit within the profile of
the past, the chart above and the chart below should serve as signs of caution
not to expect too tight a correlation between past markets and the
present. The patterns of past market behavior are a good guide; they help us
understand the environment we are in and keep our expectations in check. But
the turning points that look so perfect on the monthly charts have still been
accurate only within a +/- of several months. In hind sight that does not seem
like much, in real time two or three months can feel like an eternity.
Also, each secular period is unique, and the market will respond to
that uniqueness in a manner different than what our past market roadmaps might
lead us to expect. For example, when we line up the current market with the
1966 P/E ratio peak (above), although the major turning points line up, there
is a unique rally peak in 1968 (see above chart). That difference can be
explained by the difference between inflation and deflation based bear markets.
But, for now, the current environment is not completely identical to either the
pure inflation or deflation periods.
Obviously, current inflation is not the least bit similar to the
1970’s and despite deflationary pressures; this is not the Great Depression. We
do believe that this cycle will have more in common with deflationary cycles
than inflation. If we look back again at the P/E chart on (reposted below) we
can see that secular bear markets have cycled between a falling interest rate and
falling P/E environment, and a rising interest rate falling P/E environment.
The current economic background is more similar to the deflationary period. In
previous Market Updates we have illustrated how, since 1998, the intermarket
correlations have been indicative of a market that fears deflation more than
inflation, which fits very well with this cycle.
P/E Ratio (CAPE) for US Equities and Long Term Interest Rates: source RJ Shiller (chart)
NASDAQ Composite Aligned with Nikkei 225 1984-2010 (chart)
Japan is another example of a deflationary bear market. We have
shown the above chart before, with the overlay of the NASDAQ Composite matching
the year 2000 peak of the NASDAQ and the 1990 (December 1989) peak of the
Nikkei 225. The major turning points fit very well with the pattern, but the
volatility between the turning points is very different. For example, where our
S&P Composite model suggest a modest decline followed by a sideways period
(after [R]), the Nikkei 225 collapsed without pause. It is very unlikely that
the NASDAQ Composite will decline at same rate with which the Nikkei 225
declined at this stage of their bear market. It is more likely that the
sharpness of the Nikkei’s decline from 2000 [R] to 2003 [4] will be a feature
unique to their bear market. We should also note that it is apparent from our
model that Japan’s bear market should have been complete in 2003 [4]. The
Nikkei’s rally from the 2003 low to 2007 high was an astounding 140%! But, the
decline that followed, and the current persistent deflation shows they have not
yet pulled themselves out of their economic bear market. Is this because of
incorrect monetary or fiscal policy decisions? Have we made similar policy
mistakes? We don’t know and won’t know until after the fact.
Thus, while we have a good road map to follow, we must still
diligently monitor our indicators and market conditions. It is more important
to follow what the market is doing, than what it should do relative to any
predictive model.
Short Term Outlook
The above pages were originally written in June, 2010. The addendum
below is a short term outlook as of September 19, 2010. (chart)
Current Dow Jones Industrial Average Daily with NASDAQ 100 Year 2000
Overlay
…’
Homebuilder
Confidence Remains in the Dump
National / World
Sen.
DeMint champions 'tea party' candidates
(Washington Post) Bill
Maher digs up O'Donnell 'witchcraft' clip (AP) [ She’s done! There’s no excuse for that! None! ] ‘… "I dabbled into witchcraft. I never
joined a coven," she said. " ... I hung around people who were doing
these things. I'm not making this stuff up. I know what they told me they do,"
she said. "... One of my first dates with a witch was on a satanic altar,
and I didn't know it. I mean, there's little blood there and stuff like
that," she said. "We went to a movie and then had a little midnight
picnic on a satanic altar." …’ Occult
Obsessed Elite Claim Christine O’Donnell is a Witch Kurt Nimmo | The corporate media, the propaganda organ of the global elite, sets
its sites on Delaware’s Christine O’Donnell. … Sorry kurt … there’s no excuse
for that … she’s done! An
O'Donnell repeat is unlikely
(Washington Post) There are at least three reasons to be skeptical of
Del. Senate candidate's ability to win. OPINION:
O'Donnell's forgivable sin? | Politerati Rough
Sketch: 10 reasons O'Donnell may be a witch
Justice:
FBI improperly opened probes (Washington
Post) [ Well, I just hope they’re as
zealous (in probing readily discernible crime) with regard to my RICO matters
and the corruption in the (judicial / legal) process since, in the final
analysis, it will have been the corruption within that will have brought the
nation down irrevocably and totally ] .
September 13, 2010
Steven M. Martinez, Assistant Director In Charge
Federal Bureau of Investigation, USDOJ
11000 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 1700
Dear Sir:
I enclose herewith 3 copies of the within DVD rom autorun disk (which
will open in your computer’s browser) as per your office’s request as made this
day (the disk and contents have been scanned by Avast, McAfee, and Norton which
I’ve installed on my computer to prevent viral attacks / infection and are
without threat). I also include a copy of the DVD as filed with the subject
court as referenced therein (which files are also included on the aforesaid 3
disks in a separate folder named ‘112208opocoan’). The (civil) RICO action (as
you’re aware, the RICO Act is a criminal statute which provides a civil remedy,
including treble damages and attorney fees, as an incentive for private
prosecution of said claims probably owing to the fact that the USDOJ seems
somewhat overwhelmed and in need of such assistance given the seriousness and
prevalence of said violations of law which have a corrupting influence on the
process, and which corruption is pervasive). A grievance complaint against Coan
was also filed concurrently with the subject action and held in abeyance
pending resolution of the action which was illegally dismissed without any
supporting law and in contravention of the Order of The Honorable Robert N.
Chatigny, Chief Judge, USDC, District Connecticut. The files below the
horizontal rule are the referenced documents as filed. (Owing to the damage to
the financial interests of both the U.S. and the District of Congresswoman
Roybal-Allard, viz., Los Angeles, the Qui Tam provisions of the Federal False Claims Act probably would
apply and I would absent resolution seek to refer the within to a firm with
expertise in that area of the law with which I am not familiar).
The document in 5 pages under
penalty of perjury I was asked to forward to the FBI office in New Haven is
probably the best and most concise summary of the case RICO
Summary to FBI Under Penalty of Perjury at Their Request (5 pages) [ http://albertpeia.com/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf (
http://albertpeia.com/fbiofficela91310 )
].
The correspondence I received from Congresswoman by way of email
attachment (apparent but typical problem with my mail) along with my response
thereto is included on the 3 disks as
fbicorrespondencereyes.htm . With regard to the
calls to the FBI’s LA and New Haven, CT offices: There was one call to the LA
office and I was referred to the Long Beach, CA office where I personally met
with FBI Agent Jeff Hayes to whom I gave probative evidentiary documents of the
money laundering which he confirmed as indicative of same (he was transferred
from said office within approximately a month of said meeting and his location
was not disclosed to me upon inquiry). The matter was assigned to FBI Agent Ron
Barndollar and we remained in touch for in excess of a decade until he abruptly
retired (our last conversation prior to his retirement related to the case and
parenthetically, Rudy Giuliani whose father I stated had been an enforcer for
the mob to which he registered disbelief and requested I prove it, which I did
– he served 12 years in prison, aggravated assault/manslaughter? – and no,
there is no Chinese wall of separation – Andrew Maloney’s the one that
prosecuted gotti).
In contradistinction to the statement in said correspondence, there is
a plethora of information including evidence supporting the claims set forth in
the RICO
VERIFIED COMPLAINT (see infra). Such includes and as set forth
in the case, inter alia,
There is applicable insurance / surety
coverage and neither LA, nor creditors, nor I should continue to have been
damaged by this brazened corrupt and illegal scenario, which should be resolved
in accordance with the meaningful rules of law apposite thereto.
Sincerely,
Albert L. Peia
611 E. 5th Street, #404
Los Angeles, CA 90013
(213) ******** (cell phone)
(213) 622-3745 (listed land line but there are unresolved problems with the
line, computer connection may be the reason but I hesitate to chance greater
non-performance / worsening by their ‘fix’ so cell phone best for contact).
Recession ends, anxiety
lingers (Washington Post) Come on! This is typical, pre-election, fraudulent wall street,
full moon b*** s*** ; you know, like the no recession … just more defacto
bankruptcy of the nation to tide / smooth things over! Obama confronts deepening angst from
Americans who have little faith that the recovery is for real.
Yes! It is a full moon with
predictable lunacy from the lunatic frauds on wall street!
Gerald
Celente: US Economy = Depression Famous investor and billionaire George Soros referred to the US
economy as “blah,” saying he expects a further slowdown. US President Barack
Obama has insisted however that the US economy is heading in the right
direction. Gerald Celente, the director of the Trends Research Institute said
the economy is not just blah, it’s in a depression. It’s the summer of the
greatest recession,” he said.
Too
Much Liquidity Creating New Investment Bubbles … Again?
#1 The Census Bureau says that 43.6 million Americans
are now living in poverty and according to them that is the highest number of
poor Americans in
51 years of record-keeping.
#2 In the year 2000, 11.3
percent of Americans were living in poverty. In 2008, 13.2 percent of
Americans were living in poverty. In 2009, 14.3 percent of Americans were
living in poverty. Needless to say the trend is moving in the wrong
direction.
#3 In 2009 alone, approximately
4 million more Americans joined the ranks of the poor.
#4 According to the Associated Press, experts believe
that 2009 saw the
largest single year increase in the U.S. poverty rate since the U.S.
government began calculating poverty figures back in 1959.
#5 The U.S. poverty rate is now the third worst among
the developed nations tracked by the Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development.
#6 Today the United States has approximately 4
million fewer wage earners than it did in 2007.
#7 Nearly 10 million Americans now receive
unemployment insurance, which is
almost four times as many as were receiving it in 2007.
#8 U.S. banks repossessed 25
percent more homes in August 2010 than they did in August 2009.
#9 One out of every seven mortgages in the United
States was either delinquent or in foreclosure during the first quarter of
2010.
#10 There are now 50.7
million Americans who do not have health insurance. One trip to the
emergency room would be all it would take to bankrupt a significant percentage of
them.
#11 More
than 50 million Americans are now on Medicaid, the U.S. government
health care program designed principally to help the poor.
#12 There are now over
41 million Americans on food stamps.
#13 The number of Americans enrolled in
the food stamp program increased a
whopping 55 percent from December 2007 to June 2010.
#14 One out of every six Americans is now being served by
at least one government anti-poverty program.
#15 California’s poverty rate soared
to 15.3 percent in 2009, which was the highest in 11 years.
#16 According to an analysis by Isabel Sawhill and Emily
Monea of the Brookings Institution, 10 million more Americans (including 6
million more children) will slip into poverty over
the next decade.
#17 According to a recently released Federal Reserve report,
Americans experienced a $1.5
trillion loss in combined household net worth in the second quarter of
2010.
#18 Manufacturing employment in the U.S. computer industry is
actually lower in 2010 than
it was in 1975.
#19 Median U.S. household income is
down 5 percent from its peak of more than $52,000 in 1999.
#20 A study recently released by the Center for
Retirement Research at Boston College University found that Americans are
$6.6 trillion short of what they need for retirement … ‘
Black
September Postponed, New Month Yet To Be Determined Shell ‘… US markets
have to assimilate notes from the FOMC meeting and various housing reports this
week. Today, the National Association of Home Builders Index came in at 13,
unchanged from the previous month. With 50 a neutral number, there was no
optimism here. Tomorrow US building permits and housing starts will be
announced. With US home seizures and bank foreclosures rising to records, and
banks offering these home in competition with new homes, new home builders may
be relying upon divine intervention to assist with their sales…’
Major Indices Up Against the Wall ‘ …
Bad News:
Oil
dropped to a two week low on concerns for global growth.
Ireland
and Portugal were back in the news with the Irish/German Bund spread reaching
record highs along with the cost of insurance on their debt; the story was the
same in Portugal and these developments helped to drive the Euro down against
the dollar.
Barclays
Bank (BCS) issued a memo saying that Ireland may
need IMF help, a view that was promptly and vigorously denied by the Irish
government, but the markets seemed to rebuff those denials as gold reached a
new record high.
On
the home front, Fed Ex (FDX) reported
seeing slower growth ahead and on Friday we saw our 125th bank failure for the
year.
The
New York Empire Manufacturing Index posted a huge miss for September, coming in
at 4.1, down from a previous 7.1 and consensus estimate of 6.4
Industrial
production declined in August to +0.2% from +0.6%.
On
Friday, an unexpected drop in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
index to 66.6 for September took that index to its lowest level in more than a
year.
Unemployment
remains at a quarter century high while in 2009, the U.S. poverty rate was the
highest since 1994, with 14% of Americans living below the poverty line.
In
the all important real estate market, Realty Trac reported that bank
repossessions hit a record high in August and now one out of every 380 homes in
America are in some phase of the foreclosure process. There is now a three year
supply of distressed homes on the market and this comes against the backdrop of
household wealth declining 2.8% in the second quarter and the lowest median
household income since 1997.
The
lumber industry is an important facet of the U.S. economy and is reflective of
the state of the housing industry. This week the Western Wood Products
Association reports that 2009 was its worst year on record and that 2010 timber
sales and production could be even worse. In 2005, the U.S. had a record 2.1
million housing starts that dropped to 555,000 in 2009, the lowest number of
starts since World War II.
All
of this would lead to the obvious conclusion that we could expect still lower
home prices ahead.
What It All Means
From
a technical standpoint, the markets are poised for a significant decline and
from a macro standpoint; significant risks are inherent in the slowing economy
and problems in Europe heating up yet again. Seasonality also points to
increasing danger as September and October tend to be treacherous months for
market declines.
Furthermore,
mutual fund cash levels are at record lows and this phenomenon was also in play
before both the 2000 and 2008 market meltdowns. With not much gas left in the
tank and an ominous macro environment, it’s hard to make a bullish case in the
weeks ahead.
However
there’s always the possibility for upside surprises from resilient earnings
reports and ever present, not so invisible hand of government intervention here
and abroad.
A
sustained breakout higher will likely lead to a significant rally while failure
here will likely lead to a significant correction to test recent lows.
The most likely probability is for a move lower and Wall Street Sector Selector
remains in the “Red Flag” mode, expecting lower prices ahead.’
How
Wall Street Manipulates the News...And Investors Shaefer Wall Street’s
business model depends upon two factors:
(1) Keeping
you interested enough in the markets to leave your cash with them so they can
float it, make a return on it higher than the one they pay you, and use your
cash to convince the regulators that they have enough in “assets” to borrow
money to expand their own proprietary trading, and...
(2) Keeping
you trading. The easiest way for them to do this is to slant the news favorably
for a few weeks to a few months, then slant the same or similar news
unfavorably for a few weeks to a few months. This way, they get you to buy on
their alleged good news, then sell when the news “turns bad” and hopes are
dashed. That gives them two commissions instead of one. Done over the course of
a year, it gives them dozens rather than one or two.
A recent case
in point is the current rally based upon the fact that the ISM Manufacturing
index rose from 55.5 to 56.3, an inconsequential amount not much bigger than a
rounding error, from July to August of 2010, an inconsequential time frame too
short to measure anything meaningful. The following week, the ISM
Non-Manufacturing Index (“services” rather than manufacturing) fell a rather
more consequential 54.3 to 51.5, its lowest reading since January, a rather
more consequential time frame. Since Services comprise three-quarters of US
economic activity, one might think this would have been cause for concern. But
the news was buried on page 16 because Wall Street wants us buying now, not
selling. Once they have their shorts in place (today? tomorrow?) so they can
profit both from their short positions and from retail investors’ panic selling
and the commissions that flow only from activity, you’ll find “the news” has
magically turned bad again. Then, after they have your commission dollars and
their profits from short-selling, they'll spin the news positively again. It’s
a classic example of Lucy van Pelt whisking the football away from Charlie
Brown every time he gets th-i-i-s close to actually kicking it through the
uprights. But you don’t have to play along! Stand back from the daily barrage
of data and “commentary” on the data and you’ll see the entire process more
clearly. And if you agree, you might take a look at selling into euphoria and
buying into despair, as we try to do. The current outlook is supposedly nothing
but lollipops and rainbows, so we are now short via ProShares' inverse ETFs:
S&P 500 (SH), Emerging Markets (EUM), and Russell 2000 (RWM). I expect a rally based upon
real, versus manufactured, slanted and spun, news, this fall. Throwing out the
current crop of ne’er-do-wells in Congress alone should be good for a few
hundred points on the Dow. But, personally, I don’t see that rally mounting
from 10,600. No, Wall Street needs to terrify the public one more time, so they
can cover their short positions and buy cheaply as the public sells. A decline
below 10,000, possibly well below 10,000, is in their interest before the next
big rally. Do your own due diligence – stand aside and watch the manipulation
of the silliest sorts of news like: “Only 450,000 newly-unemployed this month
in America! Economists had predicted 460,000!! Buy!!! Buy!!!!” And if you
agree, take a look at the above and other inverse ETFs. I imagine they’ll be
very good to us over the next few weeks or couple months…
Author's
Disclosure: We and those
clients for whom it is appropriate own or are purchasing SH, EUM, and RWM.
The Fine
Print: As Registered
Investment Advisors, we see it as our responsibility to advise the following:
we do not know your personal financial situation, so the information contained
in this communiqué represents the opinions of the staff of Stanford Wealth
Management, and should not be construed as personalized investment advice. Past
performance is no guarantee of future results, rather an obvious statement but
clearly too often unheeded judging by the number of investors who buy the
current #1 mutual fund only to watch it plummet next month! We encourage you to
do your own research on individual issues we recommend for your analysis to see
if they might be of value in your own investing. We take our responsibility to
proffer intelligent commentary seriously, but it should not be assumed that
investing in any securities we are investing in will always be profitable. We
do our best to get it right, and we “eat our own cooking,” but we could be
wrong, hence our full disclosure as to whether we own or are buying the
investments we write about.’
The
Mega-Bear Quartet and L-Shaped 'Recoveries' Doug Short I retired this chart series in early August in
deference to my preferred inflation-adjusted
series that aligns the S&P 500 2000 high with the Nikkei peak in 1989.
Here's an update of the retired series by special request.
This chart
series overlays the current S&P 500 with the L-shaped
"recoveries" after the Dow Crash of 1929, the Nikkei 225 after
Japan's 1989 bubble, and the post Tech Bubble NASDAQ. Click the chart below for
a larger version and use the links to see various comparisons. [chart]
I've also
included an updated two-decade inflation-adjusted
chart, which gives us a fascinating visualization of the impact of
inflation on long-term market prices. The higher the rate of inflation during a
bear market, the greater the real decline. Compare, for example, the peak of
the Dow rally in year seven with the same peak in the two-decade nominal
chart. The difference is the result of deflation during the Great
Depression.
It's rather stunning to see the real (inflation-adjusted) decline of the
Nikkei, two decades years after its crash. The recent lows rival the traumatic
Dow bottom in 1932, less than 3 years after its peak.
These charts remind us that bear markets can last a long time. And it's not
necessary to go back to the Great Depression for an example.
[See also my preferred
version, which puts the start of the current secular bear in 2000 with the
popping of the Tech Bubble. In inflation-adjusted terms, the S&P 500
reached its all-time high in March 2000. Although the nominal high in October
2007 was higher, the "real" high was not.]
Note: These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study
the today's market in relation to historic market cycles.
The Analysts Are Starting to Get Silly Moenning In doing my weekend
research, I came across a couple of items that reminded me why I am such a
cynic:
First,
beware of "Conventional Wisdom": I believe it is safe to say that it
is widely accepted that Merger & Acquisition (M&A) activity is
generally viewed as a positive. That it reflects a view that "stocks are
cheap" and that the act of buying represents a source of demand. While
true to some degree, I found the following points from an opposing view to be interesting:
Here are some interesting points; I'm
sure you'll agree:
Second, in this week's Barron's
I came across the following excerpt from "The Weekly Speculator"
(date tagged Sept. 16) in the Market Watch Section. I use this only as an
example, and not as a general criticism of this newsletter. The excerpt reads
in part as follows:
...but it is our belief that recent
months have seen a data cycle play out, rather than a genuine moderation of
economic activity. Support for this view has certainly been delivered in recent
weeks by a sudden firming of US economic data, which has consistently been
above consensus since late August.
Really?
It seems to me that housing sales have
collapsed since the the "Home Buyer Credit" ended. Automobile sales
cratered after the "Cash for Clunkers" program finished. Inventories
are building again, which may very well not be a sign of confidence, but simply
overstocking. Consumer credit continues to contract. Consumer sentiment is
falling. I could go on.
Certainly there have been some positive
reports, mostly it seems relating to layoffs, jobless claims, etc. But in
general, I read the data as bottom-bouncing at best, and a re-intensifying
contraction as a fair possibility. Examine the below table of recent economic
reports which I have compiled. It is by no means complete, but hopefully will
give a fair representation of recent economic reports. You be the judge:
Recent Economic Data
|
|
|
Reuters |
Reuters |
|
9/17 |
UofM Conf |
66.6 |
70.0 |
68.9 |
Worse |
9/16 |
Philly Fed |
-0.70 |
3.8 |
-7.7 |
Missed |
9/16 |
Jobless Claims |
450K |
455K |
451K |
Better |
9/16 |
Producer Price Index |
+0.4% |
+0.3% |
+0.2% |
Worst |
9/15 |
Industrial Production |
+0.2% |
+0.2% |
+1.0% |
Worst |
9/15 |
Empire Manuf Survey |
4.14 |
5.00 |
7.10 |
Weakening |
9/14 |
Business Inventories |
+1.0% |
+0.6% |
+0.3% |
Improving |
9/14 |
Retail Sales |
+0.4% |
+0.3% |
+0.4% |
Better? |
9/10 |
Wholesale Inventories |
+1.3% |
N/A |
+0.1% |
Improving |
9/8 |
Consumer Credit |
-$3.6 billion |
-$3.5 billion |
-$1.3 billion |
Weakening |
9/8 |
Beige Book |
Widespread Signs |
N/A |
N/A |
Weakening |
9/3 |
Non-Farm Payroll |
-54K |
-90K |
-131K |
Better |
9/3 |
Unemployment Rate |
9.6% |
9.6% |
9.5% |
Flat/Worsening |
9/2 |
Factory Orders |
+0.1% |
+0.3% |
-0.6% |
Weak |
9/1 |
Domestic Car Sales |
8.3M |
8.7M |
8.9M |
Weaker |
8/25 |
New Home Sales |
276K |
340K |
330K |
Record Low |
8/24 |
Existing Home Sales |
3.83M |
4.65M |
5.37M |
15 year low |
Relating to the decline in outstanding
consumer credit, I believe that this is part of the consumer getting their
house in order. I feel that it will help build a solid foundation from which a
secular (long-term) economic advance could begin such as the 50s and 60s and
the 80s and 90s.
For the immediate future however, I am
of the opinion that declining consumer credit reflects an attitude by the
consumer to spend less, and this will be a damper to the economy in the short
run.
Inventory build-ups are more of an iffy
situation. If the reflect an unintended accumulation of unsold merchandise,
then a period of inventory reduction may be forth-coming. It is this inventory
reduction that concerns me and would be one more near term negative.
So, what do take away from this? Just
because it's written or spoken doesn't make it true, even my statements. Take
very little on faith, especially when it is regarding the markets.
"Trust no one" - Walter
Donovan to Indiana Jones, Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade
Disclosure: No positions
Historian:
Mao Greatest Mass Murderer in World History Independent | Mr Dikötter is the only author to have delved into
the Chinese archives since they were reopened four years ago.
Defaults
- Not Frugality - Account for Debt Decline
‘If you think that American consumers have found religion when it comes
to debt, you might be surprised by what really is happening. From the
WSJ:
First, consider household debt. Over the two years
ending June 2010, the total value of home-mortgage debt and consumer credit
outstanding has fallen by about $610 billion, to $12.6 trillion, according to
theFederal Reserve. That’s an annualized decline of about
2.3%, which is pretty impressive given the fact that such debts grew at an
annualized rate in excess of 10% over the previous decade.
There are two ways, though, that the debts can
decline: People can pay off existing loans, or they can renege on the loans,
forcing the lender to charge them off. As it happens, the latter accounted for
almost all the decline. Over the two years ending June 2010, banks and other
lenders charged off a total of about $588 billion in mortgage and consumer
loans, according to data from the Fed and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.
That means consumers managed to shave off only $22
billion in debt through the kind of belt-tightening we typically envision. In
other words, in the absence of defaults, they would have achieved an annualized
decline of only 0.08%…’
Drudgereport: GREAT
ESCAPE: HOUSE MAY ADJOURN '3 WEEKS EARLY’ [ Two views: 1) Despite the rhetoric,
spin, fake data, etc., the country is defacto bankrupt and ashambles 2) At
least they won’t be able to do more damage ] '
Prince
Charles: 'I happily talk to plants, trees' … yeah, inbreeding eventually takes
its toll ...
UK
Proposes All Paychecks Go to the State First… Wow! ...
WHAT YOU SAID: WHAT YOU SAID
(Washington Post) ‘ Ralph Novak Lincoln, Calif. I retired in 1983 after 24 years as an Air Force
officer and retired again from DoD as a GS-15 in early 2005 after 20 years of
service and moved to Northern California in 2006’. … ‘Yeah, I'm not rich, but my out-of-work neighbors who used to
have household incomes of $300K to $500K and house payments of $5K to $8K a
month look at me with a lot of envy. I worked hard, saved the TSP max and am
thankful that my wife took the long view and pressed me to stay with the
federal government. It's hard to see what monetary value there is in spending
an entire career as a GS employee when you are working long, stress-filled days
and years. But the first thing you should do after retirement is to go to your
next high school/college reunion and see how the rest of the world is
doing.’ [What a typical pathetic loser
this guy is; and typifies that government employee attitude of indispensability
when in fact they are not only superfluous and expendable, but actually a
substantial drag on the nation but are a positive in one respect … adding to
the nations insurmountable debt; ‘long, stress-filled days and years’ … don’t
make me laugh! He forgot to say that
incompetent (and corrupt, etc.) government types like him, living off the ever
expanding bureaucratic t*t (bushes are a great example as well, etc.) have
played a huge role in creating the deplorable conditions and debacle the
defacto bankrupt nation is now facing. ]
Secretary of stand-up: Corny Washington
jokes? Robert Gates has a million of 'em. (Washington
Post) [ Could it be that’s because he
is a joke. Certainly his prognosticating continues to be … a joke. Aw, well,
what the heck, he’s an affable killer from the CIA and he has resuscitated the
heroin trade in Afghanistan, along with protracted war, etc., after all … eh …
cut him some slack … riiiiight! ]
Economists Herald New Great
Depression The world is currently
experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression, according to a
prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others now forecasting
ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.) , and my position,
Nobel Prize Winner Krugman’s, and that of demographer Dent … This is a global depression. This is a
secular bear market in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated
bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically
manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that
the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical
wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior
crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until
justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted,
jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed … Krugman: It's All Downhill From
Here Cullen Roche Love him or hate him
Paul Krugman has been awfully right with regards to the macro picture in the
last few years. He’s one of the rare economists who had the foresight to see
the housing bubble and the likelihood of economic downturn that would result
from it. Krugman recently caused a stir when he said the US economy was headed
for the third depression. He isn’t back down from that outlook:
I’ve had a couple of conversations
lately with people who follow politics and public affairs, but aren’t that
close to the economic discussion — and I’ve discovered that there are two
comforting delusions still out there.
Delusion #1 is that we’re on the road
to recovery, just more slowly than we’d like; to be fair, the White House keeps
saying this.
But it’s not at all true. GDP is
growing below potential; employment, even if you focus just on private
employment, is growing more slowly than the working-age population. If you ask
how long it will take us to return to, say, 5 percent unemployment on the
current track, the answer is forever.
Delusion #2 is the belief that the
stimulus may yet do the trick, because there are still substantial funds
unspent. I tried to deal with this last year.
The level of GDP depends not on total funds spent, but on the rate at which
funds are being spent, which has already peaked; GDP growth on the rate of
change in the rate at which funds are being spent, which peaked last year. It’s
all downhill from here.
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a
Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012). ]
Accumulating
Incongruities [ Bottom line in this article is that the author (and
me) doesn’t buy the labor /
unemployment stats which have been skewed / guesstimated to the up side which
probably is no surprise given the abounding desperation and proximity to the
elections ]
Household
Net Worth Plunges By Most Since Q4 2008, As Government Borrowing Surges In
other words, the net wealth of the US household continues to track the
performance of the stock market tick for tick. And one wonders why the Fed, per
Alan Greenspan’s admission, is only focused on ramping stocks up to all time
highs.
This
is only half of the story though. Despite all these methodological weaknesses I
was curious enough to look for the list of states with the worst and best
poverty rates. I skimmed through their 88 page report but I could not find a
single table breaking down their flawed results by state. This must be top
secret information, I said to myself.
Drudgereport: Doomsday warnings of US apocalypse gain ground...
Audit:
$2 million per stimulus job...
1
in 7 Americans lives in poverty...
50-year
high...
Foreclosures
Rise; Repossessions Set Record...
Gold
hits new high...
US poverty on track to post record gain
under Obama...
Last minute aid helps city dodge default...
MICHELLE
IN 'HELL': 'CAN'T STAND' FIRST LADY JOB … (at least there’s some reciprocity)
...
BREITBART Shock Audio: Facing 'Obligations' From Leadership,
Democrat Congresswoman Leaves Voicemail for Lobbyist Cash...
RASMUSSEN:
First Post-Primary Poll, Coons winning in Delaware
Coons (D) 53% O’Donnell (R) 42%
Will
light bulb manufacturing stay in the U.S.? [ Methinks it’s a bit late to be
asking that question. In fact, meknows it’s too late to be asking that question
in light of the irrevocable structural shift precipitated by those geniuses in
Washington, including among other helmsmen of this now titanic of a nation,
those ‘strategists’ in those hallowed halls of, ie., the cia, nsa, think tanks,
sink tanks, etc., and of course, those vaunted trade deals which include
essentially all branches of the corrupt u.s. government with complicit titans /
ceos of american industry with a time horizon defined by their latest
compensation package / stock option expirations as cheered by the wall street
frauds who sold off / transferred the technological capacity to do so; and, of
course, the coup de grace, viz., that thing called NAFTA that Ross Perot was
vilified for opposing and warning against. There is really nothing in america
that can’t be produced cheaper elsewhere. Then there’s the defacto bankruptcy
of the nation when even more corporate welfare / subsidies would be necessary
to make such even remotely possible. As for prospective purported technological
advances / innovations, from my view there’s only so much utility that can
derived / squeezed from ‘hula hoops’. ]
Bank
got even more special help (Washington Post) [ Special
help? … Talk about euphemisms … LA, yes dudes, way (as they say in the
valley! ] OneUnited, now at the center
of a House ethics probe, received TARP aid despite its poor health. Warren
to be tapped as adviser (Washington Post) [ Well, that about does it …
slam-dunk for the administration … yet another ivy leaguer who at least to her
credit has talked tough; but, show us the prosecutions … show us the money
(they took) ! Show them the jail walls!
Handcuffs For Wall Street, Not
Happy Talk Zach Carter | The fraud allegations that have emerged over the past year are not
restricted to a few bad apples at shady companies — they involve some of the
largest players in global finance. ] Obama plans to tap Harvard law professor
to a special advisory role so she can help stand up a new consumer financial
protection bureau while avoiding a potentially vicious Senate confirmation
fight. Senate
passes small business credit measure (Washington Post) [ Riiiiight! That
should do the trick! Besides … It’s an election year … time to celebrate … you
know, don’t worry, be happy … and what’s a paltry amount like that anyway for
defacto bankrupt america, an interest payment on the insurmountable debt anyway
… what the heck! (Economists Herald New Great
Depression , see infra) ]The bill creates a $30 billion government fund to help open
lending for credit-starved small businesses, cut their taxes and boost federal
loan programs for them.
Clinton
wraps up Israeli, Palestinian talks - for now (Washington
Post) [ That’s a wrap (Hollywood speak), or just a lot of crap (reality). Well
some celluloid facetime (hill, I said celluloid, not cellulite), appearance of
doing something (not). U.S.
urges Arab states to drop israel nuclear treaty demand Reuters Oooooh! Wow! Sounds like a plan! … For world
conflagration … Another step toward nuclear prone middle east … israel should
be exempt because ….. ‘US –
Israel’s partner in crime, not a referee’ … You really can’t make this stuff up; the preposterous s***
coming out of america! ]The U.S. envoy to the UN atomic watchdog urged Arab
states to withdraw a resolution calling on Israel to sign an anti-nuclear arms
treaty, warning it would send a negative signal to Middle East peace
talks. Israelis,
Palestinians already broaching tough topics in talks, envoy says (Washington
Post) ‘US –
Israel’s partner in crime, not a referee’ (Infowars.com) Israeli and Palestinian leaders are holding a new
round of direct talks. Bombshell:
Barack Obama conclusively outed as CIA creation Wayne Madsen |
Investigative journalist Wayne Madsen has discovered CIA files that document
the agency’s connections to the lives of Barack Obama and his mother, father,
grandmother, and stepfather. ]
RAMALLAH, WEST BANK - Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton on Thursday
wrapped up three days of intense Middle East diplomacy that produced good
atmospherics but no sign that an impasse over Israeli settlement construction
has been resolved. (Alex Brandon - AP)
Leading Economic Indicators Continue to Suggest Return to
Contraction Is Likely
U.S.
Economy "Gradually Deteriorating," Levy Says: Recession Likely in
2011
Philadelphia
Manufacturing Index Falls
Foreclosures
Rise; Repossessions Set Record CNBC
| US foreclosure activity rose in August from the previous month, and banks and
lenders took ownership from homeowners at a record pace.
Ten Reasons This Rally Is Ultimately Toast
Wachtel ‘Here are 10 reasons why risk assets (stocks, riskier forex pairs,
industrial commodities) have a very high probability of a pullback very soon.
Technical Indicators: High Risk Of Downturn
The S&P
500 is the best single representative of overall risk appetite. It is telling
us that a pullback is coming very soon. (chart)
1. Coming Bounce Off Of Upper Bollinger Band (standard 2, 20 default settings):
Once the index starts to pull back from its upper Bollinger
band, it usually pulls back to at least its 50 day SMA, often lower. Since the
end of the most recent rally in late April, this rule has worked flawlessly in
both mid-June and mid-August. The index is now once again at its upper
Bollinger Band.
Up Against Multiple Reinforcing Layers Of Strong Resistance
Around 1120.
2. Upper Bollinger Band (noted above).
3. 200 day SMA (purple line).
4. 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the February 2010 low (which
has held up well as support, only violated for a few sessions in July and
August).
5. Neckline (red horizontal line around 1125) of the big bearish
Head-And-Shoulders pattern dating all the way back to the beginning of 2010.
Left shoulder in January, head in April, and right shoulder in June.
6. This same resistance at 1125 is reinforced by another bearish
chart pattern- a bearish double top (that may soon become a triple top if the
above indicators prove correct).
7. Recent Rally On Low Volume: The rally that began in late
August has been on very low volume, which suggests lack of conviction and thus
less durability.
Fundamentals Don’t Support A Rally
8. We are heading into the second half of the month, which is
lighter on significant news data than would be needed to justify a push past
the above strong resistance layers
In addition, there is the overwhelmingly bearish fundamental
backdrop:
9. US economic slowdown in every meaningful category: housing
prices (where the bear market began), jobs, spending, etc. Even manufacturing,
until recently a rare bright spot, has been slowing since the prior Philly Fed
report.
10. The ongoing and utterly unsolved EU sovereign debt/banking
crisis, with its now periodic eruptions. While we have no major eruptions
reported recently, PIIGS sovereign and bank yields and CDS rates remain at
May’s crisis levels, a clear indication that markets are very nervous and ready
to sell off, as they have over the past weeks on news of Ireland’s latest bank
bailout and a Wall Street Journal article on how the EU bank stress tests
understated PIIGS bond exposure.
Despite Range Trading - Prominent Sell Signals Still
Alive On Thursday September 16, 2010, 12:35 pm EDT About a month ago, news about the ominous
Hindenburg Omen, terrible September/October and other prominent sell signals
were the big buzz around Wall Street. Has the recent rally and range bound
trading neutralized or even eliminated the bearish undercurrents? A look at
current sentiment would make you think so. Sentiment surveys show that
bullishness has soared and optimists are back in control (see chart below).But
are the optimists generally right? No. In fact, unfounded optimism is one of
the biggest investment traps and most effective bear market tricks. On April
16, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned that: 'The message conveyed by
the composite bullishness is unmistakably bearish. Most bulls have no clue why
they are bullish except for the fact that they feel the need to play the
momentum game. Sounds like 2000 and 2007 all over again.' When it comes to
investing, emotions tend to get in the way of making money. It takes an
opportunistic, yet realistic approach to profit in this market.
Parallels Between 2000, 2007, and Today
From a purely analytical point of view, the April ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter examined the 2000 and 2007 market tops and compared them with the
2010 price action, at a time when optimism was soaring sky-high. The parallels
between the 2000, 2007 and forming 2010 tops were striking, that's why the
newsletter concluded that: 'A comparison between the 2000 and 2007 double tops
to the current constellations shows that the market may roll over at any time.'
Similar to the January/April 2000 and July/October 2007 double tops, the April
2010 highs were preceded by a lower January top. But the parallels didn't stop
there.
Major Tops Followed by Decoy Rallies
Following the initial 2007 decline, the April, May 2008 rally rekindled new
hope and pushed the major indexes a la Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI), S&P (SNP:
^GSPC), and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) briefly above their 200-day moving average
(MA). Following the initial April 2010 decline, the July/August rally also
pushed the S&P briefly above the 200-day MA. Both, in 2008 and 2010,
the indexes were rebuffed by the 200-day MA. The failure to stay above the
200-day MA in May 2008 was followed by a 53.75% decline in the S&P 500.
Former performance leaders like the Financial Select Sector SPDRs (NYSEArca: XLF - News) and KBW Bank ETF (NYSEArca: KBE - News) tumbled 79%, the Technology
Sector SPDRs (NYSEArca: XLK - News) dropped 49%. Even conservative
sectors such as utilities (NYSEArca: XLU - News) and healthcare (NYSEArca: XLV - News) dropped another 35 - 45%. Like a
free diver who comes up for air, the market tends to rally to keep investors
engaged before the next leg down. The chart below - which plots bullish
advisor sentiment against the price of the S&P 500 from June 2007 -
September 2010, illustrates the market's cruel habit of spreading hope just
before the hammer drops. [chart]
It Happened Before
Since we are talking about prior market tops, we can't help but mention the
mother of all sucker rallies, which occurred in 1929/1930. Following the
initial 1929 meltdown, the 1930 rally recouped 50% of the previously lost
points. Ironically, the 1930 rally ended on April 16. The 2010 counter trend
rally ran its course on April 26. In addition to a near identical termination
date, the two rallies rekindled the same kind of bullish sentiment. Below are a
few headlines and statement from April 1930. Keep in mind that the Dow went on
to decline more than 80% thereafter. 'For the immediate future, the outlook is
bright' - Irving Fisher, Ph. D. in Economics 'I see nothing in the present
situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism.' - Andrew W. Mellon,
U. S. Secretary of the Treasury 'The depression is over' - Herbert Hoover,
President If you escaped the market in
time, you might be able to read the following April 2010 headlines with a fair
shot of humor and realize the irony: 'As job worries ease, will anything stop
the stock market?' – CNBC 'Dow 11,000 is only the beginning' - Wall Street
Journal 'Check the real estate: It is time to delve in' - Wall Street Journal
It Happened Recently
It's easy to dismiss any parallels to the Great Depression simply because it
happened 80 years ago. However, an 80% drop is nothing unusual and has been
seen recently. The Nasdaq (Nasdaq: QQQQ - News) peaked in 2000 and tumbled 78.4%
within less than two years. Much evidence suggests that the Nasdaq's woes are
not yet over with more losses and lower lows on the horizon. Oil prices tumbled
77% after topping at $147.3 a barrel in 2008. Both, the Nasdaq and oil prices
topped at a time when higher prices were a foregone conclusion. With regards to
oil, the expectation for higher fuel prices moved all major car manufacturers
to advertise and build low MPG cars. As soon as their commercials hit TVs,
radios, and newspapers across the country, oil and fuel prices started to drop
like a rock. Some still dismiss those declines as sector bubbles, not broad
market declines.
It Happened to an Entire Country
The Nikkei is Japan's version of the S&P 500 and covers hundreds of stocks.
In 1989, the Nikkei topped at 38,946. Since then, it has dropped over 80% to
below 8,000 (see chart below, published in the April 2010 ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter). [chart] Throughout this 20-year decline, the Nikkei had eleven
rallies of 20% or more and four that were 50% or more. In total, the Nikkei
rallied well over 250,000 rally points, yet it remains 76% below its 1989 peak.
The decline of Japan's stock market (NYSEArca: EWJ - News) and economy happened amidst a
global bull market. Imagine what can happen to the U.S. stock market during a
global recession spurred by European (NYSEArca: FEZ - News) debt woes and global stock market
(NYSEArca: EFA - News) weakness. It's human nature to
rationalize and invent reasons why something can't happen. It's the stock
market's nature to prove investors wrong. Based on parallels that aren't
farfetched by any means, a follow through of the post 2007 U.S. equity meltdown
is more than just a possibility.
Fundamentals, Technicals, Valuations, and History in Agreement
Investing is about putting the odds in your favor. There is no such thing as a
100% certain profit opportunity. However, there are high probability profit
opportunities where the odds of having a winning trade are high and the
potential reward is much higher than the potential risk. Such high probability
profit opportunities occur when as many indicators as possible point in the
same direction. Right now, there is a near unanimous consent between
fundamental and technical indicators, along with valuations and historic
patterns. The latest ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter includes a detailed analysis of various
market forecasting tools, along with a short, mid, and long-term outlook for
the U.S. stock market and a target range for the ultimate market bottom. Even
though the economic outlook is dim, realistic investors can feel optimistic
about the opportunities in the months and years ahead. ,
Yen hits 15-year high
vs dollar
Regional
Manufacturing Still Deteriorating
August
Foreclosures Highest on Record RealtyTrac, an online foreclosure sale site,
will release its monthly numbers on Thursday, but sources there confirm the
number of repossessions will come in just shy of 100,000 for the month.
U.S.
urges Arab states to drop israel nuclear treaty demand Reuters [ Oooooh! Wow! Sounds like a plan! … For world
conflagration … Another step toward nuclear prone middle east … israel should
be exempt because ….. ‘US –
Israel’s partner in crime, not a referee’ … You really can’t make this stuff up; the preposterous s***
coming out of america! ]The U.S. envoy to the UN atomic watchdog urged Arab
states to withdraw a resolution calling on Israel to sign an anti-nuclear arms
treaty, warning it would send a negative signal to Middle East peace talks. Israelis,
Palestinians already broaching tough topics in talks, envoy says (Washington
Post) ‘US –
Israel’s partner in crime, not a referee’ (Infowars.com) Israeli and Palestinian leaders are holding a new
round of direct talks. Bombshell:
Barack Obama conclusively outed as CIA creation Wayne Madsen |
Investigative journalist Wayne Madsen has discovered CIA files that document
the agency’s connections to the lives of Barack Obama and his mother, father,
grandmother, and stepfather.
O'Donnell's
win throws a challenge at the GOP [ Aw shucks!
Change just around the corner say the bipartisan incumbents… change afoot, like
wobama’s foot in his mouth / a** change …
Let’s get real … no real change is a-coming … but ‘hopium’ (previously
discussed) is a powerfully addictive drug. Let’s all awake from this hopium
induced stupor and read these government frauds the riot act! Defacto
bankrupt american politics are getting downright nasty (AP). Ask nancy
pelosi, ‘the wicked witch of the west’
( only a minute, this political ad by John Dennis is well done and very
funny) http://albertpeia.com/nancypelosiwickedwitchofthewest.flv
. ] By beating their candidate for the Senate seat in Delaware, the tea
party sends a message to the Republican establishment: You are not in
charge. Frustration with GOP pushed
win O'Donnell's win in the Delaware Senate
primary reflects voter sentiment toward party elders.
Stocks'
rise defies record Underestimating
the Risks of the Stock Market
Keep in mind, this is an election year and as good as it gets, as bad as
it is beyond the spun / fake market-frothing
data ] [Babak ‘If you spend
enough time trading and studying the markets you realize viscerally that
markets tend to fall and fall hard much more than they rise. We got a very good
example of this in the 2008 bear market where the S&P 500 index gave back
in about 18 months all the gains that had taken it almost 5 years to accumulate
(March 2003 to October 2007). The theoretical framework that many people use
and that which is still taught in finance classes across the globe continues to
assume that returns fall into a normal distribution. While it is useful to know
that modern portfolio theory and EMH are flimsy theories with no real world
applications, it doesn’t help us to recalibrate our instruments to just how
asymmetrical stock returns really are. To get at that answer, the research team
at Welton Investments compared the actual distribution of returns from the
S&P 500 index over the past 50 years with the expected risk based on a
Monte Carlo simulation. The results are shown in the chart below: [ chart Source:
Tail Risk ] This
study shows that investors continuously and severely underestimated negative
returns. In fact, going by rolling quarterly losses of 20% or more, investors
experienced 5.3 times more of these “fat tail” events than that accounted for
by the expectations based on a normal distribution. That difference is huge!
Knowing this historical reality, investors have two choices: either don’t play
the game (get out of stocks) or play but have a safety net handy for the
inevitable fall …’ ]Defying September's
track record of being unkind to investors, the stock market has shot up for the
past two weeks as investors have grown less fearful the economy will slip into
another recession.
O'Donnell's
win throws a challenge at the GOP [ Aw shucks!
Change just around the corner say the bipartisan incumbents… change afoot, like
wobama’s foot in his mouth / a** change …
Let’s get real … no real change is a-coming … but ‘hopium’ (previously
discussed) is a powerfully addictive drug. Let’s all awake from this hopium
induced stupor and read these government frauds the riot act! Defacto
bankrupt american politics are getting downright nasty (AP). Ask nancy
pelosi, ‘the wicked witch of the west’
( only a minute, this political ad by John Dennis is well done and very
funny) http://albertpeia.com/nancypelosiwickedwitchofthewest.flv
. ] By beating their candidate for the Senate seat in Delaware, the tea
party sends a message to the Republican establishment: You are not in
charge. Frustration
with GOP pushed win
O'Donnell's win in the Delaware Senate primary reflects voter sentiment
toward party elders.
Stocks'
rise defies record Underestimating
the Risks of the Stock Market
Keep in mind, this is an election year and as good as it gets, as bad as
it is beyond the spun / fake market-frothing
data ] [Babak ‘If you spend
enough time trading and studying the markets you realize viscerally that
markets tend to fall and fall hard much more than they rise. We got a very good
example of this in the 2008 bear market where the S&P 500 index gave back
in about 18 months all the gains that had taken it almost 5 years to accumulate
(March 2003 to October 2007). The theoretical framework that many people use
and that which is still taught in finance classes across the globe continues to
assume that returns fall into a normal distribution. While it is useful to know
that modern portfolio theory and EMH are flimsy theories with no real world
applications, it doesn’t help us to recalibrate our instruments to just how
asymmetrical stock returns really are. To get at that answer, the research team
at Welton Investments compared the actual distribution of returns from the
S&P 500 index over the past 50 years with the expected risk based on a
Monte Carlo simulation. The results are shown in the chart below: [ chart Source:
Tail Risk ] This
study shows that investors continuously and severely underestimated negative
returns. In fact, going by rolling quarterly losses of 20% or more, investors
experienced 5.3 times more of these “fat tail” events than that accounted for
by the expectations based on a normal distribution. That difference is huge!
Knowing this historical reality, investors have two choices: either don’t play
the game (get out of stocks) or play but have a safety net handy for the
inevitable fall …’ ]Defying September's
track record of being unkind to investors, the stock market has shot up for the
past two weeks as investors have grown less fearful the economy will slip into
another recession.
Government Bans Tea Party From Celebrating U.S. Constitution Local government representatives in an Ohio town have taken it upon themselves to prohibit a Tea Party celebration of the US Constitution, prompting a lawsuit over restrictions on First Amendment rights.
Empire
State Manufacturing Falls in September
Technical Resistance: Here We Go Again Hui ‘…The odds seem to
favor another downleg for a couple of reasons.
First of all, investor sentiment has gotten incredibly bullish
in the space of a couple of weeks, which is contrarian bearish.
More important for the intermediate term, the market is facing a number of
macro headwinds of economic weakness starting in 4Q. John Hussman noted in his
latest weekly comment [emphasis added]: As I've noted frequently
in recent commentaries, the typical lag between deterioration in say, the ECRI
Weekly Leading Index and the ISM Purchasing Managers Index is about 13 weeks,
and sometimes longer. The typical lag with respect to new claims for
unemployment is about 23-26 weeks (which puts the likely window of
deterioration at about the October - November time frame), and the
typical lag with respect to the payroll unemployment report is, not
surprisingly, about 4 weeks beyond that.
Uber-bear Albert Edwards put it more bluntly:The
current situation reminds me of mid 2007. Investors then were content to stick
their heads into very deep sand and ignore the fact that The Great Unwind had
clearly begun. But in August and September 2007, even though the wheels were
clearly falling off the global economy, the S&P still managed to rally 15%!
The recent reaction to data suggests the market is in a similar deluded state
of mind. Yet again, equity investors refuse to accept they are now locked in a
Vulcan death grip and are about to fall unconscious…’
The Dow Is Overbought on Its Daily Chart
To
Dip or Double-Dip? Janjigian There
has been a lot of talk lately about whether or not we will have a double-dip
recession. I have long been in the camp that says a double-dip is a real
possibility. I believe the probability for a second recession is higher now
than it was last March. But how does one actually assign a number to this
probability? The economists Nouriel Roubini and Martin Feldstein are perhaps
the most bearish on the economy. They say the chances of a second recession are
about one in three. This means they believe that if the economy were to
experience the same exact conditions it is experiencing now hundreds of times,
one-third of those times would result in a recession. Another way to look at is
that the probability that we will not have a second recession is about 67%. In
other words, even the most bearish economists believe there is a much better
chance that we will avoid a second recession than there is that we will
actually have one … [ Hey, come on! If they only were the most bearish on the
economy
To
Dip or Double-Dip? Janjigian There
has been a lot of talk lately about whether or not we will have a double-dip
recession. I have long been in the camp that says a double-dip is a real
possibility. I believe the probability for a second recession is higher now
than it was last March.
Economists Herald New Great
Depression The world is currently
experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression, according to a
prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others now forecasting
ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.) , and my position and that of demographer Dent (This is a global
depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up
move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has
been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with
great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell
into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam /
fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will
not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are
criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.
Krugman: It's All Downhill From
Here Cullen Roche Love him or hate him
Paul Krugman has been awfully right with regards to the macro picture in the
last few years. He’s one of the rare economists who had the foresight to see
the housing bubble and the likelihood of economic downturn that would result
from it. Krugman recently caused a stir when he said the US economy was headed
for the third depression. He isn’t back down from that outlook
Industrial
output growth slows (Reuters) WASHINGTON (Reuters) – ‘U.S. industrial output slowed
last month and a regional measure of factory activity touched a 14-month low in
September, pointing to a cooling in manufacturing as the boost from an
inventory build-up fades. The reports on Wednesday were consistent with other
data suggesting the U.S. economy is stuck in a soft spot, but they also showed
the manufacturing sector continued to expand and
offered nothing to suggest a new recession was brewing. "We have a sharp
slowdown, but that doesn't look like it's going to develop into an outright
collapse," said Paul Ashworth, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics
in Toronto. Industrial production rose 0.2 percent in August, Federal Reserve
data showed, matching economists' forecasts for a sharp slowdown
from July when unusually strong auto manufacturing lifted output. July's gain
was revised down to 0.6 percent from 1 percent …’
Defacto bankrupt american politics are getting downright
nasty. Ask nancy
pelosi, ‘the wicked witch of the west’
http://albertpeia.com/nancypelosiwickedwitchofthewest.flv
.
Drudgereport: Doomsday warnings of US apocalypse gain ground...
US poverty on track to post record gain
under Obama...
Last minute aid helps city dodge default...
NYC
Disaster On Primary Day; Machine Glitches Cause Chaos...
Bloomberg
Blasts...
Feds
probing...
US
troops continue combat missions in Iraq, despite Obama's end-of-war speech...
Poll
workers being used to inflate jobs totals?
Retirement
on Hold: American Workers $6 Trillion Short...
REPUBLICAN ACCUSES WHITE HOUSE OF 'CLASS WARFARE'...
Paul says GOP shares blame for deficits...
Kerry flip-flops on tax cuts...
Muslims protest Quran-burning plan...
Florida pastor calls it off...
Christians rip pages from Muslim holy book in front of
White House...
Man ignites Quran near Ground Zero...
VIDEO...
Mosque opponents, supporters face off in downtown
NYC...
OBAMA: 'We are not and never will be at war
with Islam'...
'Tea
party' favorites score in DE, NY...
Establishment
Freaks...
'One
nation under revolt'...
Christine
Smacks Rove: 'So-Called Political Guru'...
CASH POURS IN FOR
O'DONNELL; $500,000 IN ONE DAY...
Upsets...
RESULTS...
WIRE...
IN:
RANGEL SURVIVES CHALLENGE...
OUT: DC
MAYOR VOTED DOWN IN UPSET...
HANGING:
DINGELL WARNS DONORS HE COULD LOSE...
Dems
gamble by shifting fire to Boehner...
Bill
Clinton: New-look GOP makes Bush look liberal!
POLL:
Only 25% of public trusts gov't...
The
Crash, Obama and Disappearing Dem Majority...
Jobless
strain Social Security's disability program (Washington Post) [ Jobless?
Strain? Disability? If only that were the only problem for the debacle that
will be called ‘social security’. Indeed, even at full employment, those
worthless iou’s will still be worthless as this typical capital hill political
math project will eventually, as with ponzi schemes generally, end very badly.
]
More
banks missing TARP dividend payments [ Isn’t it true as never before in the
short history of defacto bankrupt america, that nothing succeeds in america
quite like a lack of success? ] Bank Failure Friday
Continues at Seeking Alpha ‘…Bank Failure Friday
continues with the total number of failures for 2010 now up to 119 on the way
to 150 to 200, as the third quarter total ended September 10th at 33. During
“The Great Credit Crunch” the FDIC only closed 25 banks during all of 2008. In
2009 the FDIC picked up the pace with 140 bank failures with a peak of 50 in
the third quarter of 2009. So far in 2010 the FDIC closed 41 banks in the first
quarter, another 45 in the second quarter, and so far 33 for the third quarter.
With 119 bank failures so far in 2010 the total for “The Great Credit Crunch”
is up to 284 continuing its path to my predicted 500 to 800 by the end of 2012
into 2013 …]
Pearlstein:
A bold new breed of bank regulators (Washington Post) [ Wow! Gee! I had
always viewed Mr. Pearlstein as a grounded kind of guy. You know … somewhat
realistic … I guess I was wrong ‘cause who’s kidding whom? Criminal
prosecutions, jail, fines, and disgorgement are the only way to maximize
regulatory effectiveness, presently and prospectively. As of now, it pays for
the predisposed frauds to take what currently is miniscule chance of
prosecution for what have been and remain huge personal and corporate gains. Handcuffs For Wall Street, Not
Happy Talk Zach Carter | The fraud allegations that have emerged over the past year are not
restricted to a few bad apples at shady companies — they involve some of the largest
players in global finance. Finance groups: Long transition
to ease new bank rules (Washington Post) [ Basel’s all the rage … Riiiiight! Bonkers for Basel, the
thing in rally vogue this day … but,
not Basil as in Basil Rathbone of super sleuth Sherlock Holmes film fame who’d
make short shrift of this fraudulent wall street contagion that has swept over
Europe in a manner to rightfully earn the moniker ‘eventual black Friday
plague’ … and then there’s the ‘higher oil price’ part of the suckers’ rally.
We can certainly expect Rosanne Rosanna Danna formerly of SNL fame, as night
follows the day, to chime in with a reminder as her mama always used to say,
‘it’s always something’ … but unfortunately, that somethin’ is not
reality. YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]:
‘Broad-based buying on the back of Basel III boosted stocks to their fourth
straight gain, or seventh advance in eight sessions. Still, participation
remained unimpressive ... ‘ AP Business Highlights
‘… Banks get years to
adjust to new global rules BASEL,
Switzerland (AP) -- Bankers and analysts said new global rules could mean less
money available to lend to businesses and consumers, but praised a decision to
leave plenty of time -- until 2019 -- before the financial stability
requirements come into full force’ ] The requirements adopted by the
Basel Committee on Banking Supervision fall short of what's needed to prevent
another financial crisis. ]
Buried Alive
- Prominent Sell Signals
Is the Stock
Market Safe? [
This time the consensus is correct, in a ‘fish in a barrel’ kind of way! ]‘In a word, no. That’s the general
consensus found in a survey of individual investors done by AP and CNBC this
week. As if dealing with two major bear markets since the turn of the century
wasn’t enough, all the talk about high frequency trading and the May 6th
"Flash Crash" seems to have pushed individual investors over the edge
in terms of their comfort level with the stock market. In fact, according to an
AP/CNBC poll, 55% of those surveyed believe the stock market is fair only to
some investors. The bottom line of this particular survey is that investors are
now wary about the idea of using the stock market as a way to invest for
retirement. Instead, the survey found that the vast majority of individual
investors continue to pump unprecedented amounts of money into what many
believe is the most overvalued asset class on the planet – government bonds.
One result of the 10-plus year secular bear market in stocks is the gradual
erosion of the public’s interest and confidence in stocks as an investment. Of
course this HAS happened before. Anyone recall the 1982 cover of Time magazine
with the title “The Death of Equities?” Although the cyclical bull market that
began in March 2009 remains intact, the public has been pulling money out of
the market on a monthly basis. Since January 2008, the Investment Company
Institute reports that a total of $244 billion has been withdrawn from US
equity funds. Yet at the same time, a total of more than $589 billion has
poured into US bond mutual funds, which is an unparalleled amount. It appears
that the "Flash Crash" may have been the straw that broke the camel’s
back. For example, in the 11 weeks prior to May 6th the public pumped a strong
$26.6 billion into equity mutual funds. This is hardly surprising since during
that time the market was rising steadily and had gained more than 70% in the
past 12 months. However, in the 16 weeks since the "Flash Crash,"
investors have been running scared. In fact, Investment Company Institute
reports that the public has pulled money out of US equity funds each and every
week since, with cumulative withdrawals now totaling $55.9 billion. Thus, it
would appear that the market’s recent volatility has caused the investing
public to lose confidence in the market. The AP/CNBC poll found that 61% of
those surveyed felt the volatility has made them less confident about buying
and selling stocks. There is also a widespread perception is that the market is
rigged or unfair to the little guy. Nearly 90% of the survey respondents whose
portfolios are less than $50,000 said the market is unfair to small investors.
In addition, the public doesn’t seem to have much faith in the administration to
fix the situation in the market. The poll found that just 8% expressed strong
confidence in federal regulators while 50% expressed little-to-no confidence in
those tasked with overseeing the markets. Does this mean it is time to give up
on the stock market as an investment vehicle? We would respond with a
resounding “no!” The trick is to understand that the game has changed. After an
18-year bull market, the tide has turned. As such, investors actually have to
do something besides putting money into any old mutual fund and closing their
eyes. Disclosure: No positions’
Handcuffs For Wall Street, Not
Happy Talk Zach Carter | The fraud allegations that have emerged over the past year are not
restricted to a few bad apples at shady companies — they involve some of the
largest players in global finance.
Hatzius: The Risks Are Still to
the Downside
Gates
starts to outline cuts to save $100 billion for defense (Washington Post ) [ Oooooh …
sounds like a plan! No, not gates’ only slightly less bankrupt nation plan over
5 years which bearly covers the interest on the trillion plus for the wars; but
rather, Karzai’s plan for u.s. companies extended to u.s. presence, period! ]
Defense Secretary Robert Gates on Tuesday said the Pentagon must get "more
bang for its buck and shift its focus to the military's needs for the
future." Karzai wants private security firms out of
Afghanistan: KARZAI WANTS COMPANIES OUT U.S. calls 4-month deadline 'very
challenging' (Washington Post) One too many civilian killed.
Maybe they figured out that american non-strategy employing the Hegelian
methodology of creating problems that American firms can solve. Doomed to
failure, they eventually catch on. The bushes were famed for same but wobama
has foolishly been no slouch in this regard.
Cuba to cut 500,000 workers,
reform salaries (Washington Post) [ Boy, when Castro said communism
wasn’t working for them anymore, he wasn’t kidding! No gloating for defacto
bankrupt, pervasively corrupt america which is a far cry from capitalism and
but a whisper from collapse itself.]
Banks miss TARP payments
(Washington Post) [ Sounds like a plan! … Bank Failure Friday
Continues at Seeking Alpha ‘…Bank Failure Friday
continues with the total number of failures for 2010 now up to 119 on the way
to 150 to 200, as the third quarter total ended September 10th at 33. During
“The Great Credit Crunch” the FDIC only closed 25 banks during all of 2008. In
2009 the FDIC picked up the pace with 140 bank failures with a peak of 50 in
the third quarter of 2009. So far in 2010 the FDIC closed 41 banks in the first
quarter, another 45 in the second quarter, and so far 33 for the third quarter.
With 119 bank failures so far in 2010 the total for “The Great Credit Crunch”
is up to 284 continuing its path to my predicted 500 to 800 by the end of 2012
into 2013 … (see rest of article infra)]
Doomsday warnings of US
apocalypse gain ground AFP
| Economists peddling dire warnings that the world’s number one economy is on
the brink of collapse.
A subtler tack to fight Afghan
corruption? (Washington Post) [ How about a not so subtler tack to fight corruption starting
right here in the u.s. of a. where corruption and crime are pervasive and in
fact, at the root of the Afghanistan problems, from american reinvigorated
heroin trade to bribery attendant thereto to killing civilians, etc.. Defacto Bankrupt, Meaningfully Lawless, War Criminal Nation
america, the leader of nations … in crime:
Though having but 5% of the world’s population, america can
boast 76% of the world’s serial killers, followed by Europe with England/UK
then Germany leading the way for the eu [excerpt, 6 minute video, Serial Killers: Real Life
Hannibal Lechters http://www.albertpeia.com/realifeamericaserialkillers.mpg (as is consistent with crime generally,
see infra)]. Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive
(defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of
the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern
emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed
employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in
this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense
( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
) ]:
Rank |
|||
# 1
|
11,877,218 |
|
|
# 2
|
6,523,706 |
|
|
# 3
|
6,507,394 |
|
… ]
Doomsday
warnings of US apocalypse gain ground AFP | Economists peddling dire warnings that the world’s
number one economy is on the brink of collapse.
Bank Failure Friday Continues at Seeking
Alpha ‘…Bank Failure Friday continues with the total number of
failures for 2010 now up to 119 on the way to 150 to 200, as the third quarter
total ended September 10th at 33. During “The Great Credit Crunch” the FDIC
only closed 25 banks during all of 2008. In 2009 the FDIC picked up the pace
with 140 bank failures with a peak of 50 in the third quarter of 2009. So far
in 2010 the FDIC closed 41 banks in the first quarter, another 45 in the second
quarter, and so far 33 for the third quarter. With 119 bank failures so far in
2010 the total for “The Great Credit Crunch” is up to 284 continuing its path
to my predicted 500 to 800 by the end of 2012 into 2013.
The
failed bank was publicly-traded Horizon Bank (HZNB.OB), which had huge
overexposures to C&D and CRE loans with risk ratios of 358% and 1769%
versus the ignored regulatory guidelines of 100% and 300% of risk-based
capital. The commitment pipeline of commercial real estate loans was 99% funded
as “extend and pretend” caused this failure. The consolidator bank has been
used before by the FDIC; Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK) which has a HOLD rating according to
ValuEngine.
Here
are some statistics from the FDIC for the Second Quarter 2010: There were 45
bank failures in the second quarter, and we ended the quarter with the number
of FDIC-insured financial institutions declining to 7,893, of which 1306 are
publicly-traded.
·
1172 of all community banks (14.8%) are overexposed to Construction & Development
Loans.
·
1432 or 18.1% are overexposed to Nonfarm / Nonresidential real estate loans.
·
2504 or 31.7% are thus overexposed to Commercial Real Estate loans.
·
1317 or 16.7% have a real estate loan pipeline that’s 100% funded.
·
2622 or 33.2% have a pipeline that’s between 80% and 100% funded.
·
3939 of 49.9% of all banks have a pipeline that’s 80% or more funded. So
half the community banks in America remain overleveraged to Commercial Real
Estate and the possible losses remain about $1.5 trillion.
Publicly-Traded
Banks:
·
293 of the 1306 publicly-traded banks are overexposed to C&D loans
·
394 are overexposed to Nonfarm / Nonresidential real estate loans.
·
687 or 52.6% of the publicly-traded banks are thus overexposed to Commercial
Real Estate loans. We publish this list as the ValuEngine List of Problem
Banks.
·
234 publicly-traded banks have a real estate loan portfolio that’s 100% funded.
·
463 have a real estate loan portfolio between 80% and 100% funded.
·
697 thus have significant real estate loan pipeline stress.
Problem
Banks at the end of the Second Quarter versus the First Quarter:
·
Given
the waves of bank failures the total assets among the 686 Publicly-Traded
Problem Banks declined to $135.9 billion from $164.7 billion in the first quarter.
C&D loans declined to $12.7 billion from $16.4 billion with a CRE loan
pipeline steady at 78.1% versus 78.0%.
·
Assets
among the 91 Deadbeat Banks, (those in arrears on making TARP dividend
payments), totals $99.9 billion with C&D loans at $10.9 billion and a CRE
pipeline of 80.9%.
·
Assets
among failed publicly-traded banks increased to $122.5 billion from $116.7
billion in the first quarter. C&D loans increased to $22.3 billion from
$21.5 billion. The CRE loan pipeline increased a tick to 90.4% from 90.3%.
Assets among banks with a CRE pipeline
of 80% or more funded increased to $3.84 trillion including $121.3 billion in
C&D loans. The average pipeline for 3939 banks is 92.0%. Among this list
are four big banks that will likely see waves of write-offs in upcoming
quarters.
·
JP
Morgan Chase (JPM)
with $1.72 trillion in assets has a pipeline of 80%.
·
SunTrust
Banks (STI) has $160.5 billion in assets with an 83%
pipeline.
·
BB&T
Corp (BBT) has $149.2 billion in assets with an 84%
pipeline.
·
Fifth
Third Bank (FITB) has
100.0 billion in assets with an 84% pipeline.
Disclosure: No positions’
U.S. Trade Deficit Still Growing
Defacto Bankrupt, Meaningfully Lawless, War Criminal Nation
america, the leader of nations … in crime:
Though having but 5% of the world’s population, america can
boast 76% of the world’s serial killers, followed by Europe with England/UK
then Germany leading the way for the eu [excerpt, 6 minute video, Serial
Killers: Real Life Hannibal Lechters http://www.albertpeia.com/realifeamericaserialkillers.mpg (as is consistent with crime generally,
see infra)]. Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive
(defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of
the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern
emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed
employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in
this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense
( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
) ]:
Rank |
|||
# 1
|
11,877,218 |
|
|
# 2
|
6,523,706 |
|
|
# 3
|
6,507,394 |
|
|
# 4
|
3,771,850 |
|
|
# 5
|
2,952,370 |
|
|
# 6
|
2,853,739 |
|
|
# 7
|
2,683,849 |
|
|
# 8
|
2,516,918 |
|
|
# 9
|
2,231,550 |
|
|
# 10
|
1,764,630 |
|
|
# 11
|
1,543,220 |
|
|
# 12
|
1,516,029 |
|
|
# 13
|
1,422,863 |
|
|
# 14
|
1,404,229 |
|
|
# 15
|
1,340,529 |
|
|
# 16
|
1,234,784 |
|
|
# 17
|
973,548 |
|
|
# 18
|
923,271 |
|
|
# 19
|
593,997 |
|
|
# 20
|
565,108 |
|
|
# 21
|
553,594 |
|
|
# 22
|
552,411 |
|
|
# 23
|
520,194 |
|
|
# 24
|
491,026 |
|
|
# 25
|
427,230 |
|
|
# 26
|
420,782 |
|
|
# 27
|
372,341 |
|
|
# 28
|
351,153 |
|
|
# 29
|
330,071 |
|
|
# 30
|
312,204 |
|
|
# 31
|
307,631 |
|
|
# 32
|
286,482 |
|
|
# 33
|
283,702 |
|
|
# 34
|
236,165 |
|
|
# 35
|
218,360 |
|
|
# 36
|
214,192 |
|
|
# 37
|
167,173 |
|
|
# 38
|
Peru: |
161,621 |
|
# 39
|
148,915 |
|
|
# 40
|
134,010 |
|
|
# 41
|
132,867 |
|
|
# 42
|
130,375 |
|
|
# 43
|
107,373 |
|
|
# 44
|
102,783 |
|
|
# 45
|
101,853 |
|
|
# 46
|
92,646 |
|
|
# 47
|
85,776 |
|
|
# 48
|
84,599 |
|
|
# 49
|
81,697 |
|
|
# 50
|
81,274 |
|
|
# 51
|
80,592 |
|
|
# 52
|
60,242 |
|
|
# 53
|
59,426 |
|
|
# 54
|
57,799 |
|
|
# 55
|
49,329 |
|
|
# 56
|
44,762 |
|
|
# 57
|
40,263 |
|
|
# 58
|
39,188 |
|
|
# 59
|
38,620 |
|
|
# 60
|
36,302 |
|
|
# 61
|
35,943 |
|
|
# 62
|
31,138 |
|
|
# 63
|
26,046 |
|
|
# 64
|
24,066 |
|
|
# 65
|
21,058 |
|
|
# 66
|
19,814 |
|
|
# 67
|
19,350 |
|
|
# 68
|
18,301 |
|
|
# 69
|
17,023 |
|
|
# 70
|
15,520 |
|
|
# 71
|
15,029 |
|
|
# 72
|
13,292 |
|
|
# 73
|
13,023 |
|
|
# 74
|
12,048 |
|
|
# 75
|
Oman: |
11,782 |
|
# 76
|
8,872 |
|
|
# 77
|
7,857 |
|
|
# 78
|
7,026 |
|
|
# 79
|
5,838 |
|
|
# 80
|
5,303 |
|
|
# 81
|
4,297 |
|
|
# 82
|
751 |
|
|
|
Total: |
63,531,202 |
|
|
Weighted average: |
774,770.8 |
|
DEFINITION: Note:
Crime statistics are often
better indicators of prevalence of law enforcement and willingness to report crime (I believe, and facts support, crime in
america to be substantially under-reported and under-prosecuted owing to
pervasive corruption, arbitrary enforcement of the law, etc.) than actual
prevalence.
SOURCE: The Eighth United Nations Survey on Crime Trends and
the Operations of Criminal Justice Systems (2002) (United Nations Office on
Drugs and Crime, Centre for International Crime Prevention)
Drudgereport:
Doomsday
warnings of US apocalypse gain ground...
US poverty on track to post record gain under Obama...
Last
minute aid helps city dodge default...
REPUBLICAN
ACCUSES WHITE HOUSE OF 'CLASS WARFARE'...
Paul
says GOP shares blame for deficits...
Kerry
flip-flops on tax cuts...
Muslims
protest Quran-burning plan...
Florida
pastor calls it off...
Christians
rip pages from Muslim holy book in front of White House...
Man
ignites Quran near Ground Zero...
VIDEO...
Mosque
opponents, supporters face off in downtown NYC...
OBAMA: 'We are not and never will be at war with Islam'...
When Will the Bad Dream
End? Anthony
Gregory | It has been nine
whole years since 9/11, and it is starting to look like the “post-9/11″
insanity has become a permanent feature of the American landscape.
Defense
cuts could slow D.C. economy for years (Washington
Post) [ Well, giving credence to the 9/11 Truthers and a reason why the attacks
were allowed to go forward and even in part why those mossad agents on the
banks of the Hudson in Weehawken, n.j. were cheering as the twin towers were in
flames, war, both legal and illegal when they’re greedy enough which is almost
always, and war profiteering specifically, is very big business; but alas, more
destructive, both home and abroad, than constructive in both real and economic
terms; and then of course, the geopolitical toll which will linger far longer
than the ephemeral short-term gains for the unscrupulous few. ( I had a
full-professor who was also a CPA for my Cost Accounting Course as required for
my MBA in Finance, evening program, NYU GBA. He referenced his own military experience
in pointing out the folly of much of the military budgetary / spending process
in terms of his duties which included each day firing off munitions (small
mortars, ‘rockets’, etc.) at nothing whatsoever at all, if only to make sure at
the end of the month (longer periods) more munitions / spending would have to
be budgeted and purchased and so on. They’ve certainly come a long way in the
‘budgetary / spending’ process by creating wars to maintain same. This can
never be justified; and, after all, the nation’s defacto bankrupt. ). What
isn’t corrupt / fraudulent in washington d.c., or in America generally, for
that matter? ] After surging during
post-9/11 era, the industry now braces for a major contraction and layoffs that
could produce a significant drag on region.
Unemployment
Claims Not as Bullish as They Seem (Why?
Kudrna:‘The Labor Department reported
Thursday morning that new claims for unemployment dropped a seasonally adjusted
27,000 to 451,000. Unexpected bullish news, right? The markets immediately
gapped-up on this information as the bulls found good reason to buy. Unexpected
positive news is almost always met with a bullish move north as it’s rarely
priced in. However, a useful tidbit of information about that shockingly large
drop came out after the gap-up. Bloomberg reported that nine states didn't file
claims data to the Labor Department in Washington because of the Labor Day
holiday earlier this week. California and Virginia estimated their figures and
the U.S. government estimated the other seven. Coincidence in the large drop or
not? We will see when the next revision comes out but usually those revisions
fail to make headlines as we are already focusing on future claims. This has
been a great cover-up method for a long time…’
How Government
Reporting Will Intensify the Inevitable , On Friday September 10, 2010,
12:41 pm EDT ‘Natural
carbonation keeps a champagne bottle under constant pressure. The more you
shake the bottle, the higher the pressure gets and the further the cork will
eventually fly. Figuratively speaking, the government has been shaking the
bottle. Watch out when the cork pops. On August 10, the Associated Press
reported that the Federal Reserve has found a new trick to jumpstart the
economy. Below is the full quote that shows why we probably can't expect
unbiased assessments coming out of Washington, or the Fed's corner: 'The
Federal Reserve policymakers are pondering ways to jumpstart the economic
recovery. The trick: making sure whatever they do or say doesn't rattle Wall
Street.' Some of the recent government statistics have been 'interesting' no
doubt, and we know the administration has spent trillions in an attempt to lift
the economy, but would it go as far as actually fudging statistics? We'll examine
potential cases for 'data spiking' in a moment, but for now we'll take a look
at one of the most popular government statistics, which is misleading to say
the least.
GDP - Like a Flag in the Wind
GDP reports are prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and are a
science all in itself. GDP reports are often revised. The 'advance' estimate is
published at the end of the first month following the close of a quarter. In
addition to the 'advance' estimate, there are first and second revisions called
the 'preliminary' and 'final' estimates. The 'final' estimate is reviewed
annually, usually in July. Once every several years, the BEA reviews all data
back to 1929. On July 30, the BEA lowered Q2 2010 growth from an estimated 2.7%
to 2.4%. The real GDP for all three previous years was revised as well. It was
lowered by 0.2% for 2007, it was lowered by 0.6% for 2008 and it was lowered by
0.4% for 2009 (see chart below)[chart]. In percentage terms, the real GDP for
2007 was revised down from 2.5% growth to 2.3%. The 2008 decrease was lowered
from 1.9% to 2.8%, and 2009 growth was revised up from a 0.1% to a 0.2%
increase. In essence, the BEA proved that the recession was (or is) much deeper
and the alleged recovery much weaker than previously reported. Imagine if you
would have based your 2007 and 2008 investment decisions on GDP reports. But
wait, there is more. On August 27, the BEA lowered the Q2 2010 GDP growth from
2.4% to 1.6%. The financial media, however, applauded the reduction since
the final 1.6 number was still higher than the 1.4% economists expected. Stocks
rallied over 2% that day.
Unemployment Numbers - Not Deserving of Your Trust
Unemployment in August increased from 9.5% to 9.6%, but that's
ok. Why? According to the financial media, the increase of unemployment was due
to an increase in labor force. An estimated 6.6 million students will be
graduating and joining the labor force this year. An increasing labor force is
a reality, not an excuse to rationalize higher unemployment numbers. The real
unemployment rate (U-6) reported by the BLS (but neglected by the financial
media) jumped from 16.5% to 16.7%. Nevertheless, stocks rallied nearly 3% when
unemployment figures were released on September 3rd. According to the BLS, the
manufacturing sector lost 27,000 jobs in August. This, however, contradicts the
positive August ISM manufacturing report, which rose from 55.5% to 56.3%.
Here is the analysis from the Institute for Supply Management: 'A PMI in excess
of 42 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the
overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates growth for the 16th consecutive
month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector
for the 13th consecutive month.' If you ask the unemployed, it doesn't feel
like the manufacturing sector is improving.
Changing Rules to Accommodate Growth
Amidst the biggest financial meltdown since the Great Depression, the
administration had to act quickly. The sheer amount of toxic assets overwhelmed
the banking (NYSEArca: KBE - News)
and financial sectors (NYSEArca: XLF - News),
which led to the fall of Lehman Brothers and credit contraction around the
globe (NYSEArca: EFA - News).
It was impossible to eliminate trillions of bad loans or revive the ailing real
estate market (NYSEArca: IYR - News).
It was impossible to prop up faltering sectors like consumer discretionary
(NYSEArca: XLY - News)
and technology (NYSEArca: XLK - News).
In short, it was impossible to change reality. It was, however, possible to
change the prevailing perception and hide the root problems. In fact, it wasn't
just possible; it proved to be fairly easy. The government simply urged the
Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) to change some rules. On April 2,
2009, the FASB changed Rule 157. The ripple effect caused by massive real
estate losses suffered by the 'too big to fail' banks (NYSEArca: IYF
- News),
as well as regional banks (NYSEArca: KRE
- News),
threatened the integrity of the entire system. The 157 Rule change allowed
banks to park all their losses in a bucket called other comprehensive income
(OCI). OCI appears on the balance sheet, but not on the income statement and
thus does not affect earnings. In late 2009 and early 2010, banks exceeded
their earnings expectations - at least on paper - which created the perception
that the economy was recovering. As it turns out, the timing for the Rule 157
change was perfect and coincided with the biggest stock market rally in recent
history. A 50%+ run in the Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI), S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), and
Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) intensified the perception that the economy was on the
mend. Before the accounting rule change and other government efforts, the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter predicted the biggest rally since the October 2007
all-time highs. Via the March 2nd Trend Change Alert, the newsletter advised to
close out previously recommended short positions (some gained 100% and more)
and buy long and leveraged ETFs, many of which gained 50%, 100% or more.
Back to the Future
All was well until April 2010. Prior to the April highs, Mr. Bernanke, Mr.
Geithner, and the President were campaigning for their fair share of credit for
rescuing and reviving the country. Rather than examining and disclosing some of
the government's questionable methods, the media jumped on the bandwagon and
tickled the alleged 'saviors' egos. By doing so, the pressure in the champagne
bottle was increased. More investors bought stocks under the mistaken view the
economy had improved. This increased the pool of stock owners and the pipeline
of sellers. As per the most recent GDP numbers, investors found out that the
state of the economy is worse than previously thought. Furthermore, the
government has lost credibility and some of its associated ability to inflate
stock market confidence. Watch out, once the cork blows! Investors
leaving the market could send prices falling as fast as champagne gushing out
of a bottle. In fact, this exodus probably started already. On April 16,
the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted that: 'The cork seems to have popped.
Reality is setting in. The pieces are in place for a major decline.' Following
the April highs, the ensuing decline erased eight months worth of gains in a
mere 22 trading days. An initial wave of somewhat critical media reports
quickly faded as the stock market stabilized. Sideways trading tends to calm
the nerves and get investors re-engaged before the hammer drops again. What's
the moral of the story? Faulty
government data and trend-following media reports tend to distort the real
picture and postpone and intensify the inevitable.
The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
combines the analysis of various indicators with common sense and
out-of-the-box thinking to formulate a short, mid, and long-term forecast.’
U.S.
drops in competitiveness ( Washington Post ) [ Fourth place for pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america?
I don’t think so; not in their wildest dreams, and there’s a lot of that in
america these days, but little else. Reality says america’s place should be in
the twenties at best.
Drudgereport: Thousands of Afghans protest
Quran-burning plan...
Tennessee preacher to burn
Quran...
Topeka, Kansas church vows
burning...
Protester plans to burn on
Wyoming's Capitol steps...
FLASHBACK: Muslims Burn
Bibles and Destroy Crosses...
Ground Zero imam
ignores pastor's two-hour deadline...
U.S.
drops in competitiveness ( Washington Post ) [ Fourth place for pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america?
I don’t think so; not in their wildest dreams, and there’s a lot of that in
america these days, but little else. Reality says america’s place should be in
the twenties at best. Previous: U.S.
drops in competitiveness
(Washington Post) [ Singapore, Sweden, … ? Don’t make me laugh! From defacto bankrupt, meaningfully lawless
america’s perspective, this fallen ranking was a gift and one must be asking,
what were they smoking (or whose money were they taking?) and is the rest of
the world really that bad off? ] Large
deficits and a weakened financial system make the U.S. less competitive in the
global economy, according to World Economic Forum's new ranking. Sweden
Is A Better Place To Do Business Than The U.S. – [Well, that part is true, but
…]. ‘…Sweden, by contrast, has
“the world’s most transparent and efficient public institutions, with very low
levels of corruption and undue influence.” Which loosely translated from
wonk-speak sounds like, “You’re better off dealing with honest socialists than
crony capitalists.”’ [ True enough, but I still don’t buy it (the rankings),
especially america’s fourth place (as opposed to lower) ranking.]
Yeah! The lack of
prosecutions and teeth therein has led to continued and bolder frauds and a
complicit u.s. government! Stocks
extend gains after drop in jobless claims [ Washington Post ] I was very disappointed to see this headline
without disclaimor. Very disheartening.
[ It’s really quite amazing, and you won’t get this from the ‘money
honeys’ or other mainstream drivel (actually I got this from the CBS news
reporter, 1070am radio, but NOT their business report), the so-called better
than expected jobs report (albeit bad at 451,000 continuing claims) was
actually based upon federal government estimates for those reports that were
not submitted owing to the holiday … and we all know how conservative the u.s.
government is in making estimates, especially in election cycles when
desperation abounds … riiiiight! ( Drudgereport: GOV'T MAKES IT UP: JOBS
NUMBERS 'ESTIMATED' FOR WEEK... 'BETTER THAN EXPECTED'...
) Then there’s the ‘need more capital’ news from among the
strongest players in the European sector, viz., Germany’s Deutsch Bank, which
can only mean, particularly in light of their adoption of the fraudulent wall
street american mark to anything valuation of worthless paper, still out there
in the many (hundreds?) of trillions. (see infra, ‘…ECB chief economist Jurgen
Stark tells German MPs that the banking system is insolvent. This led to
complete shock because the newspaper headlines from July suggested the
opposite. The German policy establishment is under the illusion that its
banking system is sound because it passed what turned out to be fraudulent
stress test…’) Now, if the German banking system’s insolvent, is there a term
for double, triple, quadrupal, etc., insolvent for what the american banking
system must be? One doesn’t need clairvoyance to know that only bodes ill. Stocks Cling to Skinny Gains, Can't Shake Banking
Concerns ]
The Eerie Implications of Market
Volume and Mutual Fund Flows ‘… Here's a more compelling question: If
two-thirds or more of daily volume is a function of high-frequency trading,
what are the implications for index prices over the long haul? A year has
passed since I posted some charts illustrating the incredible ratio of S&P
500 volume devoted to five financial stocks. Today's game is no doubt different
from last September. It may be about making money, but it probably has little
to do with investing — which may explain a lot about current volume metrics and
mutual fund flows. I'll update these volume charts periodically in the months
ahead.’
Report From Europe: Fall in U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
Cheers Stocks The Mole …
Today is Rosh Hashanah, the jewish New Year, in which it is believed the names
of the righteous are recorded in the book of life, those in the middle ground
are given ten days to repent and become good, while the wicked are deleted from
the book of life. In essence, it is make or break time for the year. One wonders
if we might be entering a similar phase for Ireland with landmark decisions
over the fate of Anglo Irish Bank taken (with the cost of the funeral to be
know in early October) and the funding cliff for Irish banks to refund some
€25bn of maturing debt this month pending (though I feel fears over their
capacity to roll this debt is way overblown)…
Today’s Market Moving Stories
Worth a read: Michael Lewis has a field
day: Beware of Greeks Bearing Bonds (Vanity Fair)
Bad Math - Why The Bullish Case Doesn't Add Up , On Wednesday September 8, 2010, 3:19 pm
EDT
1+1=2 2+2=4
The simplicity and accuracy of those calculations is undeniable. How about this
equation? Fundamental Weakness + Technical Sell Signals + Overpriced Stocks =
Lower Stock Prices. This calculation also seems to be simple and accurate.
Let's look at some equations that don't make sense.
1+1=3 or Better Earnings = Higher Stock Prices
2+2=5 or Weaker than Expected Economy = Rising Stock
Prices
3+3=7 or Positive Analyst Estimates = Higher Stock Prices
4+4=9 or Technical Sell Signals = Higher Stock Prices
5+5=11 or Overvalued Stocks = Higher Prices
Drudgereport: GOV'T MAKES IT UP: JOBS
NUMBERS 'ESTIMATED' FOR WEEK...
'BETTER THAN EXPECTED'...
Treasuries Tumble Following Weak 30-Year Sale...
600
Lockheed execs take buyout
(Washington Post) [ Talk about
having your fingers on the economic / fiscal pulse of the nation. This should
be a new leading economic indicator which, unlike many of the others, is less
prone to manipulation. All hail, the ‘golden goose’ is dead! Drudgereport: MORGAN STANLEY: U.S. Government Bond
Defaults Inevitable … This is a global depression. This is a
secular bear market in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated
bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically
manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that
the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical
wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior
crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until
justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted,
jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. ] The move reflects a shift underway as defense
contractors scramble to prepare for Pentagon budget cuts.
U.S.
drops in competitiveness
(Washington Post) [ Singapore, Sweden, … ? Don’t make me laugh! From defacto bankrupt, meaningfully lawless
america’s perspective, this fallen ranking was a gift and one must be asking,
what were they smoking (or whose money were they taking?) and is the rest of
the world really that bad off? ] Large
deficits and a weakened financial system make the U.S. less competitive in the
global economy, according to World Economic Forum's new ranking. Sweden
Is A Better Place To Do Business Than The U.S. – [Well, that part is true, but
…]. ‘…Sweden, by contrast, has
“the world’s most transparent and efficient public institutions, with very low
levels of corruption and undue influence.” Which loosely translated from
wonk-speak sounds like, “You’re better off dealing with honest socialists than
crony capitalists.”’ [ True enough, but I still don’t buy it (the rankings),
especially america’s fourth place (as opposed to lower) ranking.]
Afghans question U.S.-style capitalism (Washington Post) [ As indeed they should inasmuch as the same is neither capitalism nor american style in the traditional sense referenced here. Defacto bankrupt, in decline, and pervasively corrupt, meaningfully lawless america is a nation unworthy of emulation! ] Kabul Bank became the pride of Afghanistan's financial system by offering the conveniences and thrills of 21st-century capitalism. But the scene outside the bank's headquarters Wednesday was far from that modern ideal.
Fed
sees widespread slowdown of growth (Washington Post) [ Stocks rally anyway
… the ‘miracle of computerized programmed trading’ even if the math and
fundamentals don’t add up …
Bad Math - Why The Bullish Case Doesn't Add Up , On Wednesday September 8, 2010, 3:19 pm
EDT
1+1=2 2+2=4
The simplicity and accuracy of those calculations is undeniable. How about this
equation? Fundamental Weakness + Technical Sell Signals + Overpriced Stocks =
Lower Stock Prices. This calculation also seems to be simple and accurate.
Let's look at some equations that don't make sense.
1+1=3 or Better Earnings = Higher Stock Prices
Earnings season is over. Most companies beat earnings but issued
cautious forecasts. This is particularly true of the tech (NYSEArca: XLK
- News)
and financial sectors (NYSEArca: XLF - News).
By large, profits are still driven by cost-cutting, not organic growth. Retail
sales, which make up about one third of the economy, continued to fall after
the second quarter ended. Additionally, the expectation that taxes will go up
might have moved some companies to pull some of next year's income into this
year. This can't be good for Q3 and Q4 profits. As we've seen in January and
April of 2010, positive earnings reports are not bullish for stocks, especially
if future guidance is weak.
2+2=5 or Weaker than Expected Economy = Rising Stock Prices
On July 30, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) lowered the Q2 Gross Domestic
Product (GD) growth from an estimated 2.7% to 2.4%. On August 27, the Q2 GDP
was lowered further to a jaw-dropping 1.6%. But it didn't stop there. The real
GDP for all three previous years was revised as well. It was lowered by 0.2%
for 2007, it was lowered by 0.6% for 2008, and it was lowered by 0.4% for 2009.
In percentage terms, the real GDP for 2007 was revised down from 2.5% growth to
2.3%. The 2008 decrease was lowered from 1.9% to 2.8% and 2009 growth was revised
up from a 0.1% to a 0.2% increase. In essence, the BEA proved that the
recession was (or is) much deeper than perceived and the alleged recovery much
weaker than previously reported. This comes as no surprise, as the key sector
of the financial debacle - real estate (NYSEArca: IYR
- News)
- remains in a funk. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that the number of vacant
properties, including foreclosures, residences for sale, and vacation homes,
reached 18.9 million. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continue to lose money. Has
anyone ever wondered how banks (NYSEArca: KBE
- News)
can make money on the same kind of loans that pushed Fannie and Freddie to the
brink of ruin? Since bad real estate loans triggered the post 2007 economic
meltdown, how can the economy recover without real estate leading the way?
3+3=7 or Positive Analyst Estimates = Higher Stock Prices
A recent Associated Press article observed that 'analysts only seem to hit the
mark with their estimates in the strongest economic times (2003 - 2006).' Why?
'The problem is that analysts get most of their information from the companies
they cover. Corporate managers have every incentive to stay positive for as
long as they can.' Is that true; as true as 1+1=2? On April 26, the day the
S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) topped at 1,219, the Dow (DJI: ^DJI) at 11,258, the Nasdaq
(Nasdaq: ^IXIC) at 2,535, Bloomberg reported the following: 'U.S. stocks
cheapest since 1990 on analyst estimates.' Contrary to analyst estimates, the
ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter stated that 'the potential exists that Monday's
high marked a significant top.' Since April, the broad market dropped as much
as 17%. In March 2009, with the Dow below 7000 and the S&P below 700,
analysts lowered their earnings forecasts from $113 in April 2008 to $40. On
March 2nd, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter sent out a Trend Change Alert and
recommended to buy long and leveraged long ETFs such as the Direxion Daily
Financial Bull 3X Shares (NYSEArca: FAS
- News)
and Ultra S&P 500 ProShares (NYSEArca: SSO
- News).
If
you care to know, until recently, analysts estimated that earnings for the
S&P 500 will exceed their 2006 all-time high, in 2011. Based on that
assumption, stocks are cheap. How about that for flawed math?
4+4=9 or Technical Sell Signals = Higher Stock Prices
The 200-day moving average (MA) is one of the best-known technical indicators,
as it provides delineation between technically healthy and sick stocks. On May
20, the S&P closed below the 200-day MA for the first time since late 2007.
Every attempt to rally and stay above it has since failed miserably. On July 2,
the 50-day MA for the S&P dropped below its 200-day MA for the first time
since late 2007. The same holds true for mid caps (NYSEArca: MDY
- News),
small caps (NYSEArca: IWM - News)
and nearly all individual sector indexes. For good reason, this is called a
Death Cross. Over the past ten years, the death cross has been accurate 75% of
the time, with a 19.72% average return on six winning trades and 6.95% average
return on two losing trades. [chart] In addition to the Death Cross, there are
two head and shoulders patterns, one in the making for over 10 years, and the
other has the breadth suggestive of a major meltdown (see September ETF Profit
Strategy Newsletter).
5+5=11 or Overvalued Stocks = Higher Prices
As explained above, based on overly optimistic earnings estimates, analysts
believe that stocks are cheap. Rather than basing a future outlook on
estimates, it makes sense to use facts as a foundation for any outlook. Why add
an extra variable to what's already an unpredictable market? Ask Yale Professor
Robert Shiller, who's done extensive research on the subject of valuations, and
he'll tell you stocks are historically overvalued based on the current P/E
ratio. Compare today's P/E ratio with the P/E ratio seen at major market
bottoms, and you'll see that stocks are overvalued by more than 50%. Another
gauge that doesn't lie is dividend yields. A company's dividends are a direct
reflection of cash flow and financial health. The current yield is 2.65% for
the Dow and 2.05% for the S&P. Dividends are close to their all-time
low set in 1999 (we know what happened then). This means that companies are
cash strapped and overvalued. Looking at a long-term chart of dividend yields
plotted against stock prices shows clearly that markets don't bottom until
dividends skyrocket. Just as ice doesn't thaw unless the temperature moves
above 32 degrees, the economy won't thaw and show signs of life unless P/E
ratios drop to, and dividend yields rise to, levels seen at major market
bottoms. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
includes a detailed analysis of four valuation metrics, along with short-term
target ranges for stocks and the ultimate market bottom. Based on simple math
and common sense, the July lows are certainly in danger. But it doesn't stop there.
Report From Europe: Panic Amongst the PIIGS (Seeking Alpha – The Mole) [ Sounds
far from hunky-dory to me and as the
wall street frauds would have you believe and used as a rallying point this
day. Total b*** s***! ] ‘U.S. stocks fell for the first time in five days
Tuesday, ending the longest streak of gains for the S&P 500 Index since
July, on concern the European debt crisis may worsen and hamper global growth.
Bank of America (BAC) and
Citigroup (C) fell at least 2% as European banks slid on
concern stress tests understated potential losses from sovereign debt.
Meanwhile ConocoPhillips (COP) and Chevron (CVX) slumped more than 1.2% as crude oil fell
the most in a week. But Oracle (ORCL) rallied 5.9%
after naming Mark Hurd, former chief executive officer of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) as president. Today, despite some token
buying by the ECB and a decent Portuguese bond auction, the bond vigilantes
have again been out doing their worst pushing the Irish / German 10 year spread
out to levels not seem since 1988 when the debt GDP ratio was 118% . Indeed
yesterday saw the worst single daily performance by Irish Government
bonds ever in terms of spread widening. Greece is also back in the
crosshairs in response to a downward revision to Q2 Greek GDP to -1.8% from
-1.5% originally, and on news the National Bank of Greece plans to raise Eur2.8
bln of capital. The latter may be especially alarming in the current
environment, but really reflects a desire for extra security and also a cash
hoard to potentially spend on weaker rivals. ATEbank stands prominently in this
respect. (picture)
Today’s Market Moving Stories
The stand-out mover in FX today was GBP, which rallied sharply, largely it
would seem on news that Vodafone (VOD) has sold
its stake in China Mobile and intends to use 70% of the proceeds (£4.2bn) to
fund share buybacks. The macros community had started to build GBP shorts in
recent days and this M&A flow prompted a flurry of short-covering, assisted
as well by better than feared Halifax house price data.
Irish Banking
According to the Irish Times this morning, the bank’s chairman has stated that
a statement on Anglo should be expected today. Who will make it or what the
nature of the announcement will be is not evident, but keep eyes peeled around
4pm. Recent media reports have indicated strongly that an orderly wind down of
the bank over 10-15yrs is the new preferred option. But what the markets are
really looking for is an update on the total FINAL bottom line kitchen sink
cost of the bailout and whether its closer to Eur 25bn or S&P’s recent
& much criticized Eur 35bn figure. UPDATE – SEE VERY BOTTOM OF THIS POST.
..
Japan
Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said he is prepared to take “bold”
action on currencies, including intervention in foreign-exchange markets, after
the yen reached a 15-year high against the dollar. “We will take bold action if
necessary and naturally that can include intervention,” Noda told lawmakers in
parliament today. “We have to use every option available as a strong yen is
likely to have a severe impact on companies.” The yen rose to 83.52 per dollar
yesterday, the highest level since June 1995, as concerns about weakening
growth in the U.S. and Europe bolstered the currency’s appeal as a refuge.
UK Outlook
A U.K. index of hiring for permanent jobs in August showed the slowest growth
pace in 10 months, KPMG LLP and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation
said. The gauge of full-time job placements dropped to 56.3 from 60.2 in July,
the groups said in an e-mailed report today in London. That’s the slowest pace
since October. Readings above 50 indicate an increase in hiring. The U.K. is
bracing itself for a period of austerity as Prime Minister David Cameron
pledges to reduce the country’s record budget deficit. U.K. shop price
inflation accelerated in August as the price of food rose at the quickest
annual pace in over a year, a survey showed Tuesday. Total shop price inflation
was 1.7% on the year in August and 0.1% on the month, compared with a 1.5%
annual rate and 0.1% monthly decline in prices in July, the monthly survey by
the British Retail Consortium showed. That was due to a more-than-one
percentage point rise in the cost of food. Food prices were 3.8% higher in
August than a year earlier, while food prices rose 0.2% from July. And July’s
UK industrial production figures suggest that the manufacturing sector
continues to enjoy steady, if unspectacular, growth. The 0.3% rise in
manufacturing output was the third such gain in a row and pushed the yoy rate of
output growth up to a new cycle high of 4.9%. Overall industrial production saw
a similar monthly gain. For now, then, the output data are defying the rather
gloomier tone of some of the recent industrial surveys, such as last week’s
CIPS report on manufacturing. But it is worth remembering that the surveys
normally lead the hard data by a few months, so it would be no surprise if
output growth were to start to weaken over the next few months. And even if
output posts similar increases in August and September, industry won’t make as
strong a contribution to GDP growth in Q3 as it did in Q2. Overall, UK industry
is still doing pretty well, but it may not last too much longer. (picture)
Company / Equity News
And finally UPDATE – Text of announcement
on Anglo Irish
The Minister for Finance today briefed his Government colleagues on the
strategic options for the future of Anglo Irish Bank. The Minister conveyed to
the Government the views of the Board of Anglo Irish Bank, the Central Bank,
the National Treasury Management Agency, the Department of Finance, the EU
Commission and his own assessment of the position.The Government decided that
Anglo Irish Bank will be split into a Funding Bank and an Asset Recovery Bank.
Anglo Irish Bank has not expanded its loan book since it was nationalised in
early 2009 and this will remain the case. It is intended that in due course the
Recovery Bank will be sold in whole or in part or that its assets will be run
off over a period of time. The guaranteed position of depositors will be
unchanged by the new arrangements and no action is required of them as a result
of today’s announcement. The depositors will become customers of the Funding
Bank which will be fully capitalized and continue as a regulated bank. In order
to restore the reputation of the Irish Financial System it is essential to
bring finality to the problem of Anglo Irish Bank – our most distressed
institution. The Government’s primary objective in dealing with Anglo Irish
Bank has been to minimise the cost of this distressed bank to the Irish
taxpayer. The Board of Anglo Irish Bank submitted its preferred option to the
Minister and to the European Commission at the end of May for consideration
under State Aid rules. The board’s plan envisaged splitting the bank into an
asset management company and a new good bank. The asset management company
would have managed out over time the bank’s lower quality assets remaining
after the transfers to NAMA. The new good bank would have managed the remaining
share of the loan book, retained the bank’s deposit funding and sought new
lending opportunities to grow the bank. The Minister acknowledges the good
faith and hard work of the board in producing a credible proposal for the
future of the bank. However, the Government has concluded that this plan in its
current form does not now provide the most viable and sustainable solution to
ensure the continued stability of the Irish banking system.
Resolution Proposal
In these circumstances, the Government has decided to opt for a variation of
the board’s restructuring proposal. The Government’s decision does not affect
existing guarantee arrangements. Under the restructuring plan, the Funding Bank
will be a Government-backed/guaranteed specialist deposit bank which will
contain the bank’s deposit book. It will be a stand-alone, regulated bank,
completely separated from Anglo’s loan assets and it will be owned directly by
the Minister for Finance. This bank will not engage in any lending, but will
provide a secure home for Anglo’s depositors and any new customers who wish to
deposit their funds with it. Depositors with the Funding Bank will be
completely insulated from the future performance of the rest of the current
Anglo Irish Bank loan book. The Asset Recovery Bank will also be a licensed
regulated bank. Its dedicated focus will be on the work-out over a period of
time of the assets not being transferred to NAMA in a manner which maximises
the return to the taxpayer.
Costs
The Government believes that it is essential to identify, with as much
certainty as possible, the final cost for the restructuring and resolution of
the bank. This will underpin international financial confidence in Ireland.
Accordingly, the Central Bank will determine the appropriate levels of capital
needed in both institutions. Its decision will be announced by October.
EU Commission
The Department of Finance has conducted intensive discussions with the EU
Commission in recent weeks about the future of Anglo Irish Bank. The Minister
for Finance met Commissioner Almunia last Monday to discuss the issue. A formal
detailed plan is being prepared for submission to the Commission for approval.
The Minister said: “Today’s decision by the Government will provide certainty
about the future of Anglo Irish Bank. Resolution of this, our most distressed
institution, is essential to the promotion of confidence and stability in our
financial system.”
8th September 2010
ENDS
Brian Meenan
Press Office
PH: 6045875
email: [email protected]
‘
This is what a depression is all about — an economy that 33 months after
a recession begins, with zero policy rates, a stuffed central bank sheet, and a
10% deficit-to-GDP ratio, is still in need of government help for its
sustenance.
Drudgereport: BLIAR BUSTED: Former UK PM's autobiography includes
dialogue from meeting with 'Queen' -- taken from fiction movie! Developing...
REV:
THE BURNING WILL PROCEED...
'Meant
to Be a Warning'...
Vatican:
'Outrageous'...
NYPD:
'Dangerous'...
Holder:
'Idiotic'...
Clinton:
'Disgraceful'...
Palin:
'Unnecessary provocation'...
FBI:
Retaliation 'Likely'...
Petraeus
Speaks Out on Quran Burning...
Endangers
Troops...
Pastor
Says Church Not Deterred...
Hartford
City Council meetings to begin with Muslim prayers...
2
SOLDIERS KILLED IN IRAQ, 9 WOUNDED
ADDICTED
TO STIMULUS: $50,000,000,000 MORE
Dems wary
of WH's huge new spending plan...
Obama
takes aim at Boehner... 'They talk about me like a dog'… [ If the shoe fits ... President
Obama calls African-Americans a ‘mongrel people’ President Obama waded into
the national race debate in an unlikely setting and with an unusual choice of
words: telling daytime talk show hosts that African-Americans are “sort of a
mongrel people.” ]
'They talk about me like a dog'...
FLASHBACK: President-Elect Obama: Mutt 'Like Me'...
'Even
liberal elites concede that Obama's presidency is crumbling'...
BARONE:
Sinking with Obama, Democrats plan political triage...
Muslims
Protest Plans to Burn Quran...
'Death
to America'...
Fears
rise as EU nations aim to raise borrowing...
Roubini:
More than 400 US Banks Will Fail...
'COMBAT
OVER': US TROOPS BATTLE IN BAGHDAD...
Why the Furious Bear Will Come Back - , On Tuesday September 7, 2010, 4:34
pm ‘The Top Ten List has become
a staple of David Letterman's Late Show. We don't quite have the space to
discuss ten reasons why the bear market isn't over (if we did, we'd probably
put you to sleep), but we'll take a crack at a Top Five List. Without further
ado, here it is:
#1: Forget About Earnings
Using
past earnings numbers to project future performance is like basing your
Roulette bet on the numbers that won previously… [chart]
#2: Budget Deficits
The
2011 U.S. deficit projection for 2011 was raised from $1.2 trillion to $1.4
trillion...
#3: Banks - Nothing but Fluff
…Fundamentally,
however, nothing had changed… 'The house of cards was much bigger and started
to stretch beyond Wall Street…The government postponed the collapse of the
'whole deck' thus far. As of recent, however, some disturbing information has
surfaced. Bank of America admitted to hiding bad assets and Goldman's 82% profit
drop shows that the days of fat trading profits - such as seen in Q3 and Q4
2009 and Q1 2010 - are over… It doesn't take an economist to know that taking
money from your savings account and transferring it to your checking account
can't be counted as income.
#4 Real Estate
In
late July, the market allegedly rallied because new home sales jumped 24% to
330,000 units in June. We feel the urge to put this number into perspective.
May sales were revised from an original 300,000 units to 267,000 units - this
is an all-time low. Bouncing off from the lowest level on record, new home
sales did indeed increase 24%. Is that reason to celebrate though? Chances are
the 330,000 will be revised lower in the future. Regardless, 330,000 homes sold
pales in comparison to the 1.4 million homes sold in 2005.The U.S. Census
Bureau reported that the number of vacant properties, including foreclosures,
residences for sale and vacation homes, reached 18.9 million. It shouldn't be
too long before those bleak fundamentals are reflected in the performance of
real estate ETFs like the iShares DJ US Real Estate ETF (NYSEArca: IYR
- News)
and SPDR DJ REIT ETF (NYSEArca: RWR - News).
..
#5: Consumer Confidence
During
periods of economic expanse the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index
has averaged a reading above 100. Recessions average a reading of 71. The
current confidence reading is at a dismal 50.4. The chart below paints this sad
picture. [chart] Consumer spending is said to make up about three quarters of
the economy. How can the economy recover without participation by the consumer?
It can't. That doesn't mean stocks can't rally temporarily. Such a disconnect
between the economy and Wall Street's dream world tends to be short-lived.
Sentiment Confusion
…
More importantly though, the optimism surrounding the April highs is indicative
of a major market top, a top that implies a decline much deeper than the 20%
we've seen thus far. This conclusion is certainly supported by the
above-mentioned Top Five list and many other indicators…
To
consumer advocates, antitrust enforcement lacking (Washington
Post) [ Unfortunately, at least for those who still care, america’s long past
the glory days of the trust-busters. In fact, america’s long past the days of
any meaningful law at all. See infra, RICO Summary to FBI Under Penalty of
Perjury, which includes how sam alito as u.s. attorney parleyed cover-up and
obstruction of justice et als into fed.ct.appeals and u.s.supreme court
lifetime appointments. The corruption’s incredible but very real. ] The
Justice Department's antitrust division has yet to exercise its signature
power: to bring a case against a corporate titan suspected of abusing its
dominance.
Pearlstein: The bleak truth about unemployment (Washington Post) [ When I saw this headline I felt certain that Mr. Pearlstein would be discussing the reality that the real unemployment rate exceeds 20% with that ‘stopped looking’ fudge factor removed as merely a convenient subterfuge. But, alas and lamentably, I was wrong. To be sure, Mr. Pearstein’s topic is important and probably more optimistic than anyone deserves to be in light of some grim realities that most dare not mention with the defacto bankrupt nation just barely surviving on that wonder drug called hopium (see infra, DeCiantis: ‘Students of behavioral finance must have had a field day this past week. In the wake of a month of dismal economic reports, Wall Street got its risk on with a few better than expected reports on manufacturing sentiment, home sales, and employment. Hopium, it appears, is a powerful drug. [ HOPIUM … YEAH! I KIND OF LIKE THAT METAPHOR WHICH RINGS TRUE! ] ). As for Mr. Pearlstein’s ‘how to make the american economy competitive again.’, I liken this Gordian knot of a problem to one for which magic mushrooms, along with hopium, are as far as reality will permit in terms of even imagining such could possibly be the case. You cannot unring the bell on the irrevocable structural changes wrought by the greediest, most corrupt, and, though often wrapped in the flag, treasonous, lawless elements of american society; governmental, quasi-governmental, and private business (which included the necessary technology transfers). That’s reality! ]
September: In Like a Lion, Out Like
a Lamb DeCiantis: ‘Students of behavioral
finance must have had a field day this past week. In the wake of a month of
dismal economic reports, Wall Street got its risk on with a few better than
expected reports on manufacturing sentiment, home sales, and employment.
Hopium, it appears, is a powerful drug. [ HOPIUM … YEAH! I KIND OF LIKE THAT
METAPHOR WHICH RINGS TRUE! ]
Economists
spent August cautiously lowering their outlook for the second half of the year
as Obama's "recovery summer" failed to bear fruit,
the Federal Reserve failed at both of its twin mandates (stable prices and full
employment), and bullish analysts failed to convince investors that the market
was ready to climb to fresh highs. As a result, stocks ended the worst August
in nine years with rising calls for stimulus and fears of the dreaded
double-dip.
Then
came September. In like a lion, surging nearly 3% on the first trading day of
the month on the heels of a better-than-expected survey by the Institute for
Supply Management of the manufacturing industry. Representing (statistically
speaking) nearly 30% of the US economy, the number was expected to fall after a
series of similar Fed surveys from around the country indicated that American
heavy industry -- that engine of growth over the last two quarters -- was
finally loosing steam. Instead, it leapfrogged every estimate on The Street to
post its first advance since May. Granted the rise was modest, but the surprise
factor flipped the all-important risk switch and a reinvigorated camp of bulls
poured back into the market, convinced that their creeping suspicions about a
slip back into recession were all just a bad dream.
[chart]
Outside
of a few trading irregularities, the data itself forced
the bears to take pause and reflect on the substance of the report. The
economics team at Goldman Sachs may have summarized it best:
"Without question, the report was
better than expected...[but] the details of the report actually reinforce the
case for further slowing in this sector. As shown in Exhibit 2, the gap between
the indexes for new orders and inventories, an important lead indicator of
movements in the composite index and in industrial production, almost
disappeared in the August report. As recently as May, this gap was a robust
20.1 index points. The clear—if uneven—downward trend in this indicator
actually strengthens the case for a decline in the composite index in coming
months. The bottom line: US manufacturing output may still be expanding, but
the risk that these goods are winding up on the shelf has increased."
More telling, however, was the
dissection by semi-permabear David Rosenberg that helps to put the August
print into context:
In a nutshell, ISM did smash consensus
expectations in August but the composition left much to be desired. The
coincident indicators firmed but the categories that actually lead
manufacturing activity softened across the board.
As we said at the outset, the ISM index
was at complete odds with the regional surveys. Philadelphia, New York,
Milwaukee, Richmond and Kansas City were all down. Dallas and Cincinnati were
up. In the past, when we had a 5-to-2 ratio to the downside, the share of the
time ISM managed to eke out an advance was 4%.
It would be wise to lean against the
market's initial dramatic reaction to this data. The ISM orders/inventories
ratio is a decent leading indicator and it sank to 1.033x from 1.065 in July.
1.278x in Julne and 1.441x in May. The hidden nugget in today's report is that
this ratio has decline to levels not seen since February 2009. And the last
time it fell this fast to this type of level was in the September to December
2007 period (1.03x from 1.30x) when once again, there was tremendous confusion
and intense debate over whether it was a recession/soft patch in the economy
and the bear market/corrective phase in equities.
Suffice it to say that in the past 30
years, with eleven observations, ISM dropped to 47x in the three months after
such a decline in the orders/inventory ratio to such a low level as is the case
today. That is the average, the median, and the mode. The highest ISM reading
three months hence was 51.9, so if past is prescient, today's data was likely a
huge headfake.
[chart] The ISM report also overshadowed
another important data release on construction, but we'll get to that later.
The next feather in the bulls' cap was a pair of data points on residential
real estate -- the sick dog of nearly every major developed economy in the G8.
The first revealed a rise in July pending home sales (5.6%) after a
precipitous drop in May (30%) and a further drop in June (2.6%) as an $8,000 tax credit expired.
Analysts collectively expected a drop of 1%. Needless to say the markets were
pleasantly surprised.
A closer look at the data reveals two
key narratives not captured by the popular media or trading desks. First, it's
important to contextualize the "rise" in pending sales by looking at a
longer time series that tells the same story (this particularl series only goes
back to 2005). The graph below speaks for itself.
Second, the reported data may suffer
from a disease common to many of the economic statistics released every day:
Seasonal Adjustment Disorder (SAD). Given the inherent seasonality of the home
buying cycle (higher during the summer when kids aren't in school, lower in
winter when the weather is less than ideal for moving) economists at the
National Association of Realtors make adjustments
for these factors to make monthly comparisons easier.
However, that can sometimes mask changes in the raw data, as was the case with
the August NAR release. As Rosenberg suggests:
While the increase in pending home
sales is encouraging, we did dig through the data and found that the not
seasonally adjusted numbers (the raw numbers) fell by 7%, with declines across the
country. This makes sense as July is usually a slower month for homebuying
activities.
We wonder if there is a chance that the
seasonal adjustment factors could be overstating the monthly increase given
that we have seen such huge volatility in the housing numbers in the recent
year making the seasonal adjustment process more difficult. Recall that
Standard and Poor’s issued a note about the Case-Shiller home price index
saying that “the turmoil in the housing market in the last few years has
generated unusual movements that are easily mistaken for shifts in the normal
seasonal patterns, resulting in larger seasonal adjustments and misleading
results.
Another data point that drew a lot of
bullish attention was Tuesday's housing release on prices. After a few dismal
years, any news that isn't a decrease is more than welcome by just about
everyone, rich and poor, domestic and international. Tuesday's Case-Shiller
print was no exception, as home prices "jumped"...by a mind-numbing 1%...two
months ago in June... on a rolling three-month basis (i.e. April through
June).....still reflecting the last dying gasp of the home buyers' tax credit.
Again, a little context:
And how the markets rallied.
Friday's bulls, reinvigorated after a
powerful (and low volume) start to the month, launched their
attack on a new front: employment. Long a forgotten weapon in the bulls'
arsenal, private payrolls climbed by a larger-than-expected 67,000 in
August, beating expectations for a 45,000 gain. At that rate, it would only
take a little under 9 years to rehire the 7,000,000 people who lost their jobs
during the recession but have yet to find new work (assuming no increase in
population). Only 7,000 permanent government jobs were shed during the month,
though economists expect that number to rise as state and local governments
face crippling budget deficits. The other 114,000 new
claims represent the last major layoff of temporary census workers, who rejoin
an army of job seekers that have collectively become one of America's most
structural economic challenges.
Obviously plenty of reason for the
markets to celebrate.
Now for the bad news.
On the same day as the ISM
Manufacturing survey was released to considerable fanfare, July's construction
spending was released by the Census Bureau and confirmed a worsening
year-over-year decline of nearly 11%. Month over month, spending was down 1% in
July and suggests another downward revision to third quarter GDP.
More from Goldman:
Construction outlays dropped 1% in July
from a level that was revised down a whopping 2.7%. This dismal construction
report flew below the market's radar, as it normally does since it usually
comes out alongside the ISM manufacturing survey. One might dub construction
outlays the Rodney Dangerfield ("I don't get no respect") of US
economic indicators. Of all the data released this week, it has the most direct
bearing on the real GDP "bean count" next to the monthly consumption
report. Hence, since consumption was only modestly better than expected, a case
can be made that third-quarter growth might actually be lower now than we
thought a week ago despite all the upside surprises.
[chart]
Wednesday also revealed that another
source of bullish sentiment in July may have been a little premature: auto sales. After months of steep retail incentives and easy
year-over-year growth comparisons, cash- and credit-strapped
Americans returned to a more cautious consumption path. As the second largest
leveraged purchase in a typical household, auto sales reflected that shift.
Only Chrysler, the runt of the litter, managed to squeak out an
increase in sales in an otherwise sluggish retail environment.
[chart]
Finally, on Friday the latest ISM Non-Manufacturing
survey was released and was every bit as disappointing as everyone expected the
manufacturing survey to be. The index slowed to 51.5% in August from 54.3% in
July and 55.4% in May, and its components were even less rosy. From Econoday:
A new optimism after today's jobs
report -- not so fast. The ISM non-manufacturing report shows broad and
deeper-than-expected slowing. New orders at 52.4 are down more than four points
in August for the slowest rate of month-to-month growth so far this year.
Employment, which in this report includes government workers, is signaling
contraction, at 48.2 for a nearly three point decline for the worst reading
since January. The composite headline index at 51.5 is down exactly three
points for what is also the worst reading since January. Backlog orders are
basically flat, export orders are down, deliveries are showing less delays, and
general business activity is slower. Imports did rise as did raw material
prices.
[chart]
In response, the market cut its morning
gains in half, only to rally into the close to retest the morning highs. What
makes this week's schizophrenic ISM interpretations so dangerous is that the
upside surprise on Wednesday was based on data that captures roughly a third of
the economy, while Friday's non-manufacturing disappointment approximates activity
in roughly two-thirds of the economy. So of course the markets ended the week
up 3%.
Once again, Goldman's analysts try to
walk a fine line between sell-side optimism and buy-side skepticism:
On the whole, it's been a good week for
US economic data...reports on factory activity, pending home sales, and the
labor market have surprised to the high side. In fact, some of these readings
have benefited from positive judgmental adjustments, as factors not readily
apparent in the headline indicator have also been better than expected.
However, this does not mean that the outlook for US economic activity has
improved, except insofar as the better-than-expected news eases market worries
about a "double dip". At least some - perhaps most - of the improvement
... reflects what Paul Krugman once called, in a much different context,
"The Age of Diminished Expectations". In the current setting, we note
that several prominent forecasters have marked down forecasts of economic
activity and therefore may also have lowered their sights on the higher
frequency indicators.
Interpretive bias is inevitable when
any new data is released. Optimists will quickly find a silver lining in any
dark cloud, and pessimists will pick apart even the most robust reports of
growth and tease out a bearish narrative. Investors should think twice when
these competing forces fall out of balance -- when markets are as unabashedly
bearish as they were in late 2008, or as unapologetically bullish as the were
during the second half of 2009.
If the first few days of September are
any indication of how the month will unfold, we may be back on the perma-bull
track. When disappointing data is released, investors cheer for more fiscal and
monetary stimulus. When data is surprisingly positive, investors cheer at the
prospect of a sustainable, organic recovery. As we saw in early 2010, this
"heads I win, tails you lose" mentality is particularly vulnerable to
rapid and substantial correction, and a September that entered as a lion may
finish the third quarter as a lamb.
Disclosure: Long safety, short risk (no specific
stocks mentioned)’
Correlation
and the S&P 500 [ I really think this author was a bit too
diffident in talking about the computerized churn-and-earn scam which eats away
at the real economy , but the discussion highlights at least this immense
problem area ] ‘The immense correlation between the market, and almost all risk
assets on Earth is not a new subject to FMMF readers. [Jun 30, 2009: Bloomberg - Correlation Among Asset Classes
Highest Ever] I beat this dead horse monthly, mostly out of abject
frustration. [Sep 2, 2010: Why Bother with Individual Stocks in the
Perfectly Correlated Market?] I don't have an issue when the market
is up 2-3% or 90% of stocks move in the same direction, it is all these days
the market is up or down 0.7% when it drives a person nuts.
Friday,
for example, every position I had but one was up. As I type this every position
but one is down.
This
correlation madness started to become an issue in 2007 as we were told that
hedgies control 40%(ish) of each day's trading volume. As I said then, since
mutual and pension funds are relatively staid players, the 'fast money' is the
marginal buyer, and 'hot money' in the form of hedge funds - especially of the
quant variety - are the marginal buyer. The problem now is they seem to be the
only buyer as equity fund withdrawals continue on pace as the retail guy floods
into bond funds.
So
we have a market dominated by computers trading to computers, all using related
algo's - happy, happy, joy joy. Now we hear things such as 60-70% of trades
flow through these players... and since EFTs are the weapon of choice,
computerized trading of EFTs have taken over the market. [Jun 29, 2010: Correlations Among Asset Classes Reach Ever
Higher Extremes as HAL9000 Algos Dominate Life] The SPY ETF is now about 9% of ALL volume as of
last check, and we had a time about 7-8 months ago where Citigroup (C), AIG (AIG),
Fannie (FNMA.OB), and Freddie (FMCC.OB) were 40% of all volume. Pathetic.
Frankly,
it makes the market a frustrating and 'less fun' place. The market used to be a
four-dimensional jigsaw puzzle, comprised of fundamental, technical,
psychological, and 'animal spirits.' Now it's just the dumbed down
two-dimensional Etch a Sketch. Shake it at 4 pm every day, because it has no
memory from day to day. Sure you can adjust (in fact you must adjust) if you
plan to stick around, but when everything is a 1:1 correlation, it simply
reduces the market to 'stoopid' and coming in each day, checking your brain at
the door, and staring at the S&P 500 chart trying to guess where it will be
in 3 hours, 3 days, and 3 weeks gets to be boring. [Jul 15, 2010: WSJ - Correlation Soars on S&P 500
Shares]
But
this is the casino market we have built, and I don't see anything
changing anytime soon. The other issue is it makes it so much more difficult to
outperform the market. Surely there are a handful of stock names that still
outperform (or underperform) but with almost everything swaying in the exact
same direction as the market, creating alpha is difficult. Most of the
performance nowadays is not about stocks, but due to calling turns in the
greater market - increasingly hard to position for as you scale in size.
Especially when the majority of the turns are due to binary reactions to
economic reports or Fed announcements - it's simply placing your bets on red
and black, not a stock market.
I've
written about said frustration in the past amongst the "human"
hedgies, [July 8, 2010: Hedge Funds "Frozen in Headlights"
as BiPolar Market with 1:1 Correlation in All Things Not Named U.S. Treasuries
Causes Confusion] and this is taking a toll on the mutual fund
managers as well.
One
of my big beefs with the mutual fund industry is that many players - especially
in the bigger funds - are closed index funds. They all have super cool names
but almost anything in 'large cap value' or 'large cap growth' were hybrid
closet indexers. They basically flip an Exxon (XOM), Intel (INTC), or a Microsoft (MSFT), with a Walmart (WMT), Verizon (VZ), or a Cisco Systems (CSCO) -- change the order, weighting, and
indeed are able to charge a nice fee for doing nothing other than being the
S&P 500 with a small twist. I cannot tell you how many 401k plans I
reviewed for people, where I went to look at the top 10 holdings of the 12-15
mutual fund choices and 90% of them were identical (just in different order in
weightings!). The statistic of 0.99 correlation amongst the S&P 500 and
many of the largest funds is quite remarkable and points to my 'closet index'
beef, but with the mechanics of our new paradigm market, it has taken it to a
whole new level. It also says a lot of people are wasting their money paying
management fees for what is an S&P 500 ETF clone.
That
said, even with the closet index situation that has been growing for a decade+
you used to be able to try to outperform if you plied your trade in small or
medium caps (or international markets), but the HFT + EFT = GLEE environment we
now live in has made that increasingly moot, since most of those stocks now
move in unison as well. If your stock is not in a major EFT it generally sits
ignored with low volume... if it IS in an ETF than it doesnt matter the company
specifics - as long as the algo's are buying (or selling that ETF) as flavor of
the day, every component in that ETF is a winner (or loser)! Stoopid is as
stoopid does in the market with 1st grade logic.
One
gentleman I've admired for many years is Will Danoff at Fidelity Contrafund. [Sep 9, 2008: Will Danoff in Kiplinger Magazine]
His fund has been huge in size for years on end (I'm talking multiples the size
of the biggest hedge funds - Contrafund is now up to $62 BILLION), yet he has
been able to somehow outperform his peer group (and until the past 5 years the
S&P 500) by a wide margin, mostly by being somewhat contrarian. This
despite holding many positions and not being extremely concentrated - a feat I
find quite remarkable since once you start owning 200-250 positions I don't know
how you can beat the market over time. (Contrafund owns 445 positions as of last quarter!) Danoff is highlighted in
this piece, which is why I mention him - he is no dummy.
Via
Bloomberg:
Disclosure: None’
Obama
defends policies and offers new proposal (Washington Post) [ No you can’t wobama … b*** s*** everyone
again! ‘Yes, we can … NOT!’ That dog don’t hunt anymore wobama. Drudgereport:
Obama
takes aim at Boehner... 'They talk about me like a dog'… [ If the shoe fits, wobama … keep
gearing up Afghanistan … sounds like a plan]... ]Faced with twin challenges of boosting the economy
and saving congressional seats, the president tries to do a little of both on
Labor Day.
Krugman:
It's All Downhill From Here Cullen Roche Love
him or hate him Paul Krugman has been awfully right with regards to the macro
picture in the last few years. He’s one of the rare economists who had the
foresight to see the housing bubble and the likelihood of economic downturn
that would result from it. Krugman recently caused a stir when he said the US
economy was headed for the third depression. He isn’t back down from that outlook:
I’ve had a couple of conversations
lately with people who follow politics and public affairs, but aren’t that
close to the economic discussion — and I’ve discovered that there are two
comforting delusions still out there.
Delusion #1 is that we’re on the road
to recovery, just more slowly than we’d like; to be fair, the White House keeps
saying this.
But it’s not at all true. GDP is
growing below potential; employment, even if you focus just on private
employment, is growing more slowly than the working-age population. If you ask
how long it will take us to return to, say, 5 percent unemployment on the
current track, the answer is forever.
Delusion #2 is the belief that the
stimulus may yet do the trick, because there are still substantial funds
unspent. I tried to deal with this last year. The level of GDP depends not on
total funds spent, but on the rate at which funds are being spent, which has
already peaked; GDP growth on the rate of change in the rate at which funds are
being spent, which peaked last year. It’s all downhill from here.
If you can ignore the schizophrenic
market for just a second it’s hard to reject Krugman’s macro outlook. The
private sector has been running on fumes since the debt bubble burst in 2007.
The government’s extraordinary actions helped bolster the economy, but merely
papered over what was a very weak private sector. As we see the government step
aside it’s difficult to imagine that the weakness at the private sector won’t
again be exposed for what it really is.
Government
Bonds: Can the U.S. Maintain Confidence in Its Debt? Cliff Kule Massive,
unsustainable government debt - it's everywhere. Especially in America. At some
point, will the world begin to lose confidence in America's growing debt? Will
interest rates then skyrocket? Will a Greek-style crisis in U.S. government bonds
then ensue? Is there any way out?
America can
claim its debt problems are not as bad as some countries. But that ignores some
important points:
Is there any way for America to maintain the
confidence?
One way would be for America to become fiscally
prudent, simply stop creating money and debt, let the massive deflationary
forces of credit contraction and consumer de-leveraging run their natural
course. This would cleanse the system of toxic debt. It would also clearly and
immediately cause another Great Depression.
Another way would be for America to simply print more
money, create more debt, blindly following Keynesian economics that brought us
into this mess in the first place. Attempt to "inflate away" the debt
without losing the confidence of investors that buy the U.S. government bonds.
This has been tried many times throughout history with disastrous consequences.
The chart below (courtesy of Economic Edge) shows how
increases in debt are recently giving less and less “umph” to economic GDP
growth to the point now of negative GDP growth. Eric Sprott has produced an
excellent study suggesting that 9 cents of "growth" is coming
with every dollar we go deeper into debt. Bud Conrad has produced
calculations that are equally discouraging. This massive debt-driven money
printing would therefore likely lead some form of hyperinflation in a futile
attempt to stimulate economic growth.
This leaves one other option.... a direction that is
hardly ever considered... a policy tool still waiting to be tried!... America
could return to the gold standard... Why? Because the gold standard system
would back the U.S. dollar by real money, and enforce a responsible discipline
of fiscal and monetary policy that Congress and the Federal Reserve cannot
currently do. In turn this would maintain confidence in America's debt.
“The gold
standard has one tremendous virtue: the quantity of the money supply, under the
gold standard, is independent of the policies of governments and political
parties. This is its advantage. It is a form of protection against spendthrift
governments.” Ludwig von
Mises (1881-1973)
Monetary systems on a gold standard system cannot
increase money supply as needed. Under a gold standard system, paper money is
backed by something of real tangible value. The total amount of gold limits the
total amount of paper money that can be created. New money must be backed by
additional gold. Omnis’ Jim Rickards suggests this possible solution:
a “gold backed currency at a non-deflationary price… sound money leads to sound
growth and the creation of real, not illusory, wealth.”
In 1971, President Nixon simply severed the tie
between gold and U.S. dollars. As he closed the gold “window,” Nixon proclaimed
“We are all Keynesians now” (referring to the Keynesian economic school of
thought where gold has no function). Austrian School economists and Cliff Küle
would like to say – We are not all Keynesians.
Did severing the link between the dollar and gold
work to strengthen confidence in the U.S.? Please consider:
Until the greenback is once again made as good as
gold, many millions of people will persist in believing that the barbarous
relic is still a better bet.
Recently speaking about Goldman Sachs’ problems at
the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, former President Bill
Clinton said,
There is a bigger problem here… too much of our
growth was in finance ever since went off the gold standard.
The dollar “tie” to gold might be “re-tied” just as
simply as it was untied. In a certain respect, America never really went off
the gold standard. The tie between gold and U.S. dollar was simply adjusted to
0%. So, simply adjust it back. What tie would be needed today to restore
America back to the gold standard? Let’s do the simple math.
Official
figures for the total amount of gold reserves held by the U.S. Treasury are
8133.5 tonnes of gold. This gold is owned by all Americans and is held in trust
by the government for the people. Given that 1 metric tonne is 32150.746
ounces, that amounts to:
8133.5 tonnes x 32150.746 ounces/tonne =
261498092.591 ounces
If we look at recent Federal Reserve
data, we note that the total U.S. M1 seasonally adjusted money supply is at
$1712.2 Billion of currency. Therefore if we were to take the total currency
and back it by the total amount of gold, this would give:
$1712.2 billion divided by 261498092.591 = US$6547
per ounce
There you have it – if the U.S. were to devalue the
U.S. dollar, setting gold at 6550 U.S. dollars per ounce of gold, the country
could position to go back on the gold standard. Global confidence in the U.S.
dollar and in America's debt would be maintained. It may be as simple as
finding the right price for the government gold holdings to give
"backing" to every dollar in circulation.
$6550/ounce is approximately the current value
necessary to give "gold backing" to the current level of M1 money
supply. If the U.S. wanted to expand the money supply further to stimulate the
economy, it would need to set a new price for its gold holdings which is even
higher than $6550/ounce or somehow get more gold. The U.S. could then be in a
position to expand money supply as necessary to stimulate growth and able to
extend credit to other nations. This is an essential ingredient to restoring
confidence and keeping the title of reserve currency. After all, a reserve
currency should be able to extend credit to nations in need, not be in need of
credit from other nations.
As Jim Rickards
states, this one-to-one ratio backing of gold with the U.S. dollar
would comfortably support a broader U.S. money supply
on a one-to-one ratio and maintain confidence in the dollar and U.S. sovereign
debt.
Perhaps only then could global confidence in the U.S.
dollar and in U.S. debt be maintained – if not, either a deflationary
depression or a hyperinflationary depression could be in store as confidence
wanes with increasing levels of public debt.
Back to the Future
Nick Barisheff, President and CEO of Bullion
Management Group, emphasizes
that gold is money:
Gold is not and never has been a currency. Gold is
something entirely different and far more valuable. It is money.
Cliff Küle suggests that to maintain confidence in
its debt, America must bring back the gold standard, anchoring the U.S. dollar
back to real money - gold, as Article 1 of the Constitution of the United
States commits it to be.
Disclosure: No positions
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a
Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012).
National / World
Drudgereport: Petraeus
Speaks Out on Quran Burning...
Endangers
Troops...
Pastor
Says Church Not Deterred...
Hartford
City Council meetings to begin with Muslim prayers...
2
SOLDIERS KILLED IN IRAQ, 9 WOUNDED
ADDICTED
TO STIMULUS: $50,000,000,000 MORE
Dems wary
of WH's huge new spending plan...
Obama
takes aim at Boehner... 'They talk about me like a dog'… [ If the shoe fits ... President
Obama calls African-Americans a ‘mongrel people’ President Obama waded into
the national race debate in an unlikely setting and with an unusual choice of
words: telling daytime talk show hosts that African-Americans are “sort of a
mongrel people.” ]
'They talk about me like a dog'...
FLASHBACK: President-Elect Obama: Mutt 'Like Me'...
Muslims
Protest Plans to Burn Quran...
'Death
to America'...
Fears
rise as EU nations aim to raise borrowing...
Roubini:
More than 400 US Banks Will Fail...
'COMBAT
OVER': US TROOPS BATTLE IN BAGHDAD...
Obama
to call for $100B business tax credit (Washington
Post) [ Just in the nick of time … riiiiight! … for the elections … you know,
‘talking points’ though of no economic effect
… and to make america, only slightly more bankrupt ... at this point,
who’s counting? ] Under mounting pressure to intensify his focus on the economy
ahead of the midterm elections, president seeks to boost research and
development
Afghan
bankers' assets frozen (Washington Post) Authorities bar sale of
properties held by principal owners, but freeze excludes Karzai's brother [
Yeah … don’t want to get him too angry … he’s too valuable to the heroin trade
resurrected by america. ].
Small
businesses feel squeezed by Obama policies (Washington Post) [ Well, the
grim reality for them is that they just don’t pony-up those big campaign
dollars like those non-performing corporate welfare recipient conglomerates /
big businesses. The other reality, reiterated again here is that everybody’s on
to the fact that wobama’s great at delivering speeches, albeit teleprompted,
but as we now all know, he doesn’t deliver. It’s rather pathetic to see that
old loser and jingoistic fake war hero fraud, senile, incompetent mccain who
never saw a new war opportunity he didn’t like despite america’s defacto
bankruptcy (a policy the post-election wobama’s promulgated) because of same
being given air time as some sort of wise old sage when he’s really just an
old, stale joke who would have been even worse than wobama but not by much,
failed presidencies both. ]
Celebrating Job Losses ‘For now I will stick with the belief that Friday's action was just
another oversold rally in the context of a falling market. I would love for the
economy to right itself … Unfortunately I still don’t see or understand how we
are going to accomplish those things in the near term. I do see many technical
indicators flashing warning signs … Until then cash is the safest investment
and all celebrations should be put on hold.’
Democrats running on austerity (Washington
Post) [ Wee doggies! … The new republican party is born … Actually, despite the myth, the reality is
that under Reagan ( and the bushies, and of course, wobama – clinton caught a
break with the peace dividend but the bureaucracy grew ) government spending
significantly increased along with the government bureaucracy. ] Fearing midterm wipeout, party hopefuls
embrace budget cuts with the zeal of Reagan Republicans.
Ex-bank executives say their
dismissals caused panic withdrawals in Kabul (Post,
September 4, 2010; 8:52 AM) Karzai
urges Afghans not to panic as bank withdrawals accelerate (Post,
September 4, 2010; 3:11 AM) Suicide bombing kills at lesat 55
(Washington Post) Pakistan… After
Iraq war, uncertainty and seemingly mixed messages (Post,
September 2, 2010; 4:26 PM) [ What do these nations have in common? An
american presence … and from the foregoing it’s clear that this sounds like a
reporting job for Rosanne Rosanna Dana of SNL fame who has insight into such
scenarios as this ‘cause her mama always said …it’s always something! ]
U.S. to temper stance on
Afghanistan corruption (Washington Post) [ Sounds like a plan! After all, in
america’s own image of corruption, ie., bribery, heroin trade, etc., they’re
remolding Afghanistan replete with good old american style corruption and they
don’t want no noses pokin’ around to see america’s direct involvement in the
corruption, bribery, etc., and particularly the heroin trade, the american
raison d’etre there where the Taliban had all but eradicated the heroin
production / trade which surged thereafter with the american participation. The
American rationale seems to be, continue the corruption, etc., since to
eliminate same would help the Taliban. Riiiiight! My, oh my! You can’t make this stuff up.] Military officials conclude that effort to
drive out all but the most corrosive abuses in region would create a power
vacuum that Taliban could exploit.
Not-so-dire
jobs report gives stocks a boost (Washington Post) AP Business
Highlights [ Wow! ‘Private
employers hired more workers over the past three months than first thought’ …
Riiiiight! Especially with 2 months to the mid-term elections (time for federal
term limits and the abolition of lifetime appointments for anything owing to
the nation’s defacto bankruptcy), desperation with fake / false data / reports;
and, that negative but better than expected thing as unemployment rate inches
up to 9.6% (the real unemployment rate is approximately 20+% with that ‘stopped
looking’ fudge-factor giving them the false positive). I mean, come on! Private
reports on non-farm payrolls down each week, but suddenly from out of nowhere
defying virtually all economist estimates the ue claims are up, and prior gov’t
reports revised up. This is a great opportunity to sell / take profits! ]
‘(AP)Companies add 67K workers, but jobless rate rises WASHINGTON (AP) --
Private employers hired more workers over the past three months than first
thought, a glimmer of hope for the weak economy ahead of the Labor Day weekend.
But the unemployment rate rose because not enough jobs were created to absorb
the growing number of people looking for work ...’
Mark
Hulbert's Take: What Are the Odds of a September Decline? at Seeking
Alpha (Fri, Sep 3) ‘Some of the work Mark Hulbert does is nothing
more than telling us what the gurus in the universe he follows are thinking
individually and, more frequently, in the aggregate. But of late, he also has
been doing some far more interesting analysis in the “Yale Hirsch” mode – and
the results are not satisfying if you are a bull.
The bullish
case seems to rest on two platforms: (1) August was really bad therefore
September should be good in reaction to that, and (2) “Everyone” now expects
the current crop of politicos to suffer major setbacks in November and, since
the market is a predictive mechanism, investors are positioning themselves
today for what they believe will be wonderful news post-November (like an
extension of the current tax rates and a reduction in pork-barrel spending by
irresponsible pols.)
The Dow
rallied more than 300 points the first two days of September so, making the
usual straight-line assumption, bulls believe that today is the day to get
invested, Hmmm. Let’s examine each of the above platforms in turn.
Quoting Mr.
Hulbert’s conclusions based upon his historical analysis:
I have good news and bad news when
it comes to slicing and dicing the historical data as it pertains to September.
The good news is that it is
possible, by carefully reading the statistical tea leaves, to get advance insight
into whether any given month is likely to do better or worse than average.
The bad news: Those tea leaves provide no such hope
that this September will be able to beat its historical reputation as being
awful for stocks.
His research shows that since 1896 (the year the Dow
Jones Industrial Average was created,) the Dow has lost an
average of 1.15% in September. The average gain for all other
months was 0.71%. Worse, a look at the historical record shows that Septembers
did not show a 1.15% decline following a bad August – they showed a 2.7%
decline! Typically, when August is down, as goes August, so goes September --
only twice as bad as usual.
Worse than that, Hulbert notes, “During each of the
past nine decades... September's rank relative to other months in terms of
performance was never higher than ninth. It was dead last in five of those nine
decades -- including the most recent one.”
He adds a final bit of gasoline to this bonfire by
noting that the CBOE's Volatility Index (VIX) is relatively low going into
September, the month tends to do better. Uh-oh. The VIX at the end of August
was quite a bit higher than 20. (And for those who have followed our comments
on the VXX and VXZ ETFs in the past, we
believe they have now entered an excellent buy area.)
As for the second platform, the market seldom reacts
favorably to the same news twice. I’ve been writing for two years that the
pendulum will swing, that the 2008 election was a rejection of the
guns-and-butter policy of the previous administration and was little different
than the voters’ rejection of President Johnson’s guns and butter policies in
1968 (thrusting Richard Nixon into office with disastrous consequences we hope
are not repeated this time around), and that mid-term elections are almost
always about mitigating the euphoria of the previous presidential election.
This is not news!
The rally of September 1st and 2nd
may have occurred as a result of Johnny-come-latelies reaching the conclusion
Wall Street reached about the mid-term elections weeks or months ago. If that
is the case, I imagine the smart money is rubbing their hands with glee and
using this rally to lay on bigger short positions.
The current rally was ostensibly about the fact that
the Chinese Purchasing Managers Index rose to 51.7 in August from 51.2 in July,
followed by the news that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index improved from 55.5
in July to 56.3 in August. I don't see it – these incremental numbers are
nothing but decimal dust in the grand scheme of things! Easily manipulated by
the bureaucrats in charge of such numbers, the “improvement” is so small as to
be barely measurable – and to raise not a stir among the media when they are
“revised” from “up 0.5%” to “down 0.1%” or whatever in another month.
The other economic numbers that form the backdrop to
this rally include: Canada’s GDP fell to an annual rate of 2% in the 2nd
quarter, down from 5.8% in Q1; auto sales absolutely plunged in the U.S. and
around the world; there was a continued drop in U.S. construction spending;
there were declining retail sales in Euro nations; and the ADP employment
report indicating that we didn’t just grow jobs at too slow a pace to cover all
the new workers entering the labor force, but we actually lost some 10,000
private sector jobs! Government is still hiring, of course, but we must always
remember: the private sector is income, government is overhead. That doesn’t
mean we don’t need certain government workers – what hellish existence would it
be without fire and police protection, or good teachers to educate our
children? But it is still overhead even if we collectively choose to pay for it
in order to enhance our safety or literacy.
Bottom line: September tends to do worse in years
that August has been bad. August was bad. The news of the mid-term elections is
already old news and will most likely follow the historical path of all
mid-term elections. We will return more to the center. And the good news to
propel the market higher is likely to be short-lived. Clearly, we aren’t out of
the woods yet. If the market is in a news-dominated phase, we are likely in big
trouble.
For our clients we are stressing safety, with inverse
ETF protection from the likes of ProShares Short S&P 500 (SH),
ProShares Short Russell 200 (RWM), ProShares UltraShort Nasdaq (QID)
and ProShares Short MSCI Emerging Markets (EUM). (If the US and Europe
aren’t consuming, who is going to order stuff from the emerging nations? They
will fall if our markets and economies fall…) We are also buying VXX and VXZ
and are keeping our bond positions short and inflation-resistant, as we do with
WIP, TIP,
BWZ,
and MINT. Finally, we own
some special situations in precious metals, energy and agriculture. (See
previous articles for specifics, including this
and this...)
AP Business
Highlights [ Wow! ‘Private
employers hired more workers over the past three months than first thought’ …
Riiiiight! Especially with 2 months to the mid-term elections (time for federal
term limits and the abolition of lifetime appointments for anything owing to
the nation’s defacto bankruptcy), desperation with fake / false data / reports;
and, that negative but better than expected thing as unemployment rate inches
up to 9.6% (the real unemployment rate is approximately 20+% with that ‘stopped
looking’ fudge-factor giving them the false positive). I mean, come on! Private
reports on non-farm payrolls down each week, but suddenly from out of nowhere
defying virtually all economist estimates the ue claims are up, and prior gov’t
reports revised up. This is a great opportunity to sell / take profits!
]Companies add 67K workers, but jobless rate rises WASHINGTON (AP) -- Private
employers hired more workers over the past three months than first thought, a
glimmer of hope for the weak economy ahead of the Labor Day weekend. But the
unemployment rate rose because not enough jobs were created to absorb the
growing number of people looking for work ...’
Stocks
Churning in Trading Range: Dave's Daily ‘This will be short. Perhaps the image [old lady (wall street)
churning (scam) butter (stocks)] and title should suffice as a summary of the
week. After all, I indicated "possibly" I might post on Friday. The
current market is a reprise of early July's rally from June's selloff. Now into
September the August lows are reversing. How durable will this be is anyone's
guess. Economic data was greeted with bullish enthusiasm as markets were
oversold after Monday's slump. The unemployment data was just about the same as
previous once you look deeper inside the data. The birth/death model is just an
estimate made out of thin air. Once you view the data ex-that, things look
pretty grim. There are very few players involved this week and perhaps in the
future. It's interesting many major banks are closing their proprietary trading
operations. This removes another important prop to markets as retail investors
have left the scene. Further, for stock mutual funds, the exodus continues for
the 16th straight week. Cash balances at these funds are at historic
lows of 3% as the outflow continues. Curiously, short interest is also at an
all-time low near 4% meaning few for bulls to squeeze. We only have hedge funds
and overseas investors in the game. And, it does seem like a game more than
ever now. Bulls jumped on the oversold conditions on Wednesday as a DeMark 9
was registered on Tuesday for most major market daily charts then. A rally on
that technical condition was no surprise ...’
Important
Manufacturing Indicators Look Weak at Seeking Alpha (Fri, Sep 3)
Consumption
Contraction Approaches 2008 Low at Seeking Alpha (Fri, Sep 3)
Beware
the Big Red Leading Indicator at Seeking Alpha (Fri, Sep 3)
Small
Investors Turns More Bullish (contrarian indicator) at Seeking
Alpha (Fri, Sep 3)
Unemployment
Rate Edges up to 9.6% at TheStreet.com (Fri, Sep 3)
AAII
Sentiment Survey: Bullish Sentiment Improves, But Bearishness Still Dominates
at Seeking Alpha (Fri, Sep 3)
Monthly
Markets Review: Risk Aversion Rises in August as Double Dip Concerns Grow at
Seeking Alpha (Fri, Sep 3) ‘…The ECB keeping rates at a record low
of 1% and zero interest policies in the US and in most western economies
remains bullish for gold as the opportunity cost, the lack of yield, of owning
gold is negligible, especially with inflation having picked up recently in many
economies internationally. Further signs of burgeoning food inflation were seen
in the surge in the price of global meat prices which have risen to 20 year
highs … (chart) September can be the 'cruelest month' for stocks. Conversely,
more years than not, precious metals prices perform well in September and many
analysts reckon this year will not disappoint those owning gold. Given the
uncertain financial and economic outlook, it is important that investors remain
diversified with allocations to cash, short dated government bonds,
international equities, and gold…’
National / World
Drudgereport: UNEMPLOYMENT
JUMPS TO 9.6%...
Economy
LOST 283,000 jobs during 'Recovery
Summer' months...
NPR:
'Recovery Summer' Ends With Economic
Pothole...
Labor
Sec. Declares: 'There are jobs out there'...
TREASURY
HEAD RUSHES BACK FROM VACATION; AIDES SEARCH FOR OTHER JOBS PACKAGE...
120
Days to Go Until Largest Tax Hikes in History...
President
Claims Job Creation; Doesn't Mention Net Job Loss of 54K...
HE
NEEDS A VACATION: OBAMA TO CAMP DAVID...
Taxpayers
to face initial loss on GM IPO; Treasury to sell first shares below
break-even...
David Rosenberg: The U.S. Is Suffering a Japanese-Style
Depression Burrows
‘Presciently bearish David Rosenberg, the chief economist and strategist at
Gluskin Sheff who called the global meltdown back when he was still at Merrill
Lynch, isn't budging from his view that the U.S. is in a depression
-- and a prolonged, Japanese-style one at that. Rosenberg reminded clients on Wednesday that here we are 33
months after the Great Recession began, and yet home prices, gross domestic product, credit outstanding,
organic personal income and employment are all lower
now than they were prior to the onset of the downturn. "We can understand
that this is not exactly cocktail conversation, but this is a Japanese-style
(even worse perhaps) modern-day depression," Rosenberg writes. "It's
not the 1930s because soup lines have been replaced with unemployment insurance
lines -- over 10 million checks and for up to 99 weeks. The poor souls who
endured the bitter 1930s had no such relief." And as for the U.S.'s
vaunted labor flexibility and superior demographics saving it from a Japanese
sort of lost decade or two, well, Rosenberg is having
none of it. "Government policy and the record number of people upside-down
on their mortgage have seriously impaired the flexibility of the labor
market," Rosenberg writes. And the U.S. birth rate has declined for two consecutive
years and is at its lowest level in a century, he notes. Of course, it's no
surprise to buy-and-hold investors that U.S. equities have already notched a
lost decade and then some. Take a look at this 10-year chart of the S&P 500
($INX): See full article from DailyFinance: http://srph.it/aZTYr7’
[$$] U.S. Equity ETFs Implode ‘U.S. equity ETFs hemorrhaged assets during
the month of August as investors sought out emerging-market equity and debt
along with fixed-income picks. According to National Stock Exchange data
(nsx.com) released today, U.S. equity ETFs shed nearly $11 billion in assets
last month. Here's something remarkable: One U.S. equity ETF accounted for more
than half of these outflows. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF, arguably the ETF
industry's most iconic fund, saw net outflows totaling more than $6.6 billion
last month. Who were the biggest losers besides SPY? You'll recognize some of
these names: the PowerShares QQQ ETF, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF and the SPDR
DJIA ETF saw net asset outflows of $2 billion, $1.7 billion and $616 million,
respectively. At the other end of the spectrum, the Vanguard MSCI Emerging
Markets ETF and the iShares MSCI-Emerging Markets ETF attracted $1.9 billion
and $1.8 billion, respectively, while the...’
Retail
sales, home contracts rise modestly (Washington Post) [ Forced / Distressed / Underwater pending / foreclosure sales
the impetus for short-covering / suckers’ rally on light and hence, easily
manipulated, pre-holiday computerized trade volume. The government, desperate
and defacto bankrupt, is back to their fake / false data reporting; you know,
the kind that spurs the fraudulent wall street rallies and gets revised by 35%
+ down later as with GDP just recently, but the wall street frauds will get
their commissions again on the way down.
YAHOO
[BRIEFING.COM]: ‘…Early
participants had little reason to alter their mood since the initial jobless
claims count for the week ended August 28 came in at 472,000, which is in on
par with the 475,000 initial claims that had been widely expected. The latest
tally was also little changed from the prior week total of 478,000. Continuing
claims saw a more substantial slip as they fell to 4.46 million from 4.48
million. Final nonfarm productivity readings for the second quarter also
offered little surprise. Productivity in the quarter fell 1.8%, which is in
stride with the 1.7% decline that had been widely forecasted. Unit labor costs
for the quarter increased 1.1%, as expected. Pending home sales for July
provided participants with a positive surprise. They posted a 5.2% monthly
increase, which contrasts with the call for no change from economists polled by
Briefing.com. That data overshadowed news that factory orders for July
increased 0.1% instead of 0.3% as had been widely expected…’ Stocks
rise on economic hopes ahead of payrolls (Reuters) Riiiiight! Sounds like a
plan! ]
Nation / World
Drudgereport: TIME: (WOBAMA) MR.
UNPOPULAR... FLASHBACK: (WOBAMA) TIME MAN
OF THE YEAR 2008...
Calls for USA to
shore up Afghanistan Bank as withdrawals accelerate...
UPDATE: Oil rig explodes in
Gulf of Mexico; 7 active wells on platform...
COAST GUARD: Mile-long 'oil
sheen' spreading...
Russian police raid opposition
magazine... [They don’t often do this overtly in america anymore
since most media is in cahoots / controlled; but still, no excuse for putin who
is often disengaged as when he is out shooting Siberian Tigers with
sophisticated weaponry. ]
Pledge
beaten by sorority sisters who warned her 'snitches get stitches'... ‘… In her lawsuit,
excerpted here, Howard noted that she had originally planned to pledge
Alpha Kappa Alpha, the oldest African-American women’s sorority. But since the
sorority’s San Jose chapter has been suspended due to hazing activities, Howard
opted to join Sigma Gamma Rho, believing that “they represented the
‘sisterhood’ she sought in a sorority.” However, Howard contends, that the
group’s pledge process was far from sisterly. According to her complaint, she
and fellow pledges were punched, slapped, kicked, slammed into walls, struck
with a wooden spoon and a cane, and had books and coins thrown at them during a
series of 16 nighttime initiation sessions. Howard recalled one evening when a
sorority sister told her to close her eyes. She was then struck on the buttocks
with what she later learned was a kitchen pot. The pledges were also frequently
struck with a wooden paddle, Howard said, blows that left her with welts on her
buttocks. Howard reported that pledges were repeatedly warned not to talk with
friends and family about the initiation process, since “snitches get stitches.”
They were also told that if they failed to participate in certain pledge activities,
they would be “jumped out,” a gang term for a beating conducted by all members
of the group. Howard’s complaint names as defendants San Jose State University,
Sigma Gamma Rho, and various sorority members, including a quartet of women
who, court records show, pleaded no contest earlier this year to misdemeanor
hazing charges. The defendants--Princess Odom; Monique Hughes; Joslyn Beard;
and Nicole Remble--were each sentenced to 90 days in jail, directed to serve
two years of court probation, and barred from involvement with any sorority.
Odom, Hughes, Beard, and Remble (all negroes) are
pictured here, clockwise from upper left, in San Jose Police Department mug
shots.’
Pearlstein:
Put millionaires' tax money to good use (Washington Post) [ Nobody likes
even the sound of higher taxes, particularly when the same goes for such waste
as porkbarrel, political spending but especially the nation-bankrupting
needless war spending, the black budgets, etc.. That said, Mr. Pearlstein is
quite right, especially when one considers the source of the ‘largesse’, viz.,
nation-bankrupting war criminal moron dumbya bush who snidely smirked as he
talked of ‘his (political) base’ and all the ‘politicking’ entailed in same.
Remember… the nation is defacto bankrupt! Moreover, I don’t buy that ‘most
productive’ sector being ‘disincentivized’ unless measured by the magnitude of
their frauds (ie., wall street, etc.), transfer of the nation’s productive
capacity (ie., u.s. ceo’s and politicians, etc., with few exceptions).
Additionally, their marginal propensity to consume is less than that of lower
wage earners (economics) ]
Army supervisor was worried about leak
suspect's mental health, attorney says (Washington
Post) [ One cannot help but hearken back to a frequently deployed ‘government
at its worst’ strategy, ie., Ellsberg/Pentagon papers, former soviet union,
etc., in attempting to discredit such informants, etc., which of course is a
telltale sign of america’s similar fate / decline / fall. ]
What if Roger Clemens is telling the
truth? http://voices.washingtonpost.com/hard-hits/2010/08/what_if_roger_clemens_is_telli.html I ordinarily don’t comment on sports matters
but this is one of those exceptions. While not in any way dismissing the
seriousness of the prevalent use, for quite some time, of performance-enhancing
drugs, my own position on the matter was to place an asterisk next to those who
made the record-books so-doing (still matters of proof) with a more stringent
policy going forward. Where does an incompetent, nation-bankrupting,
non-performing congress get off going after a performance-driven baseball
player when huge crimes, warcrimes, frauds from this same government are still
unprosecuted? Ask the wall street frauds the tough questions … they’ll lie.
Then, even assuming, arguendo, Clemens slipped up … picture the
alice-in-wonderland surreal scene presided over by that mammalian rodent-like
presence of that incompetent in the semblance of some beaver-toothed woodland
creature as, ie., hedgehog, gopher, etc., amidst characters that would rival
the famed mad tea party, mad-hatters all. There are far bigger fish to fry and
of greater consequence to the nation but their lack of courage and incompetence
is the only consistency on capital hill, and everyone knows it. How pathetic!
After all, aren’t all three branches of the u.s. government a lie of
themselves, and have a near single digit approval rates to prove it.
Pa.
capital nearing bankruptcy (Washington Post) [ Sounds like a dry run for the nation’s capital. Drudgereport: MORGAN STANLEY: Government Bond Defaults Inevitable …
Everyone who is capable of thinking knows america is defacto bankrupt. The question is, how did Morgan
Stanley’s assessment escape scrutiny and
follow-up by the press. Indeed, it is certainly a breach of duty to have
done so in light of the implications. ] In a highly unusual move, the city of
Harrisburg says it will not make a $3.3 million payment.
Obama prods Mideast leaders (Washington Post ) [ The real question is … who is going to prod defacto bankrupt, war
crimes nation america … on peace, that is. Then there’s that ‘oh, it’s just war
crimes, illegal nuke-toting israel … laws, rules, un resolutions, etc., don’t
apply to them factor and the concomitant skepticism attendant thereto. ]
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Palestinian President Abbas are set to
open direct peace talks.
A
year ago I posted a story citing the many reasons why we were
sinking into the deflationary Japanese trap. The primary flaw with the US
response to the crisis was that we never actually confronted the problem at
hand. I have often cited Japanese economists such as Richard Koo who appear to
have a good grasp on the problems in Japan and now in the USA. In this case, I
cited Keiichiro Kobayashi who is now looking most prescient:
We continue to ignore our past and the
warnings from those who have dealt with similar financial crises. Keiichiro
Kobayashi, Senior Fellow at the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and
Industry is the latest economist with an in-depth understanding of Japan, who
says the U.S. and U.K. are making all the same mistakes:
“Bad debt
is the root of the crisis. Fiscal stimulus may help economies for a couple of
years but once the “painkilling” effect wears off, US and European economies
will plunge back into crisis. The crisis won’t be over until the nonperforming
assets are off the balance sheets of US and European banks.”…
Read that last paragraph again. These
are scarily accurate comments. While the USA claims to have many economists who
understand the Japan disease and/or the Great Depression the policy actions
we’ve undertaken do not appear to be in line with any understanding of this
history.
What we’ve done over the last few years
is repeat the mistakes of Japan’s past. Instead of confronting the debt
problems head on we have simply tried to fill the output gap with short-term
spending plans and impotent monetary policies. As Kobayashi presciently said,
the “bad debt is the root of the crisis”. I think most mainstream economists,
the administration and the Fed have continually misdiagnosed our problems. They
have attempted to save the banking sector and simply fill in holes with
spending plans that prop up markets, entice more borrowing and largely ignore
the actual cause of the current crisis. Some economists have argued that the
Recovery Act didn’t fail, but that it was too small. This is like saying that
the cancer patient didn’t receive enough percocet. More percocet isn’t the
cure. Targeting the cancer and trying to cut it out is the cure. Yet, we
continue to ignore the lessons of Japan despite having so many “experts” on the
Japanese disease. Therefore, we appear destined to repeat their horrid economic
history assuming our current path isn’t miraculously altered.’
WHO ELSE IS CLUELESS IN THE FINANCIAL SECTOR? [ As I’ve previously said and
reiterate here, the lunatic frauds on wall street are criminally insane and the
only way to stop / deter their debilitating churn and earn among other
computerized frauds is prosecution, jail, fines, and disgorgement! Once again
they’re back to their huge fraudulent gains as seen this reporting period
despite growing problem bank list, worthless paper from the prior fraud in the
(hundreds of) trillions now marked to anything, and look at August results and
worse to come; that money for their commissions / premiums must come from
someplace, viz., the bubble which will deflate / crash. ] Graham Summers
‘Here’s a zinger of a news story:
Barclays Plc had no idea how big Lehman
Brothers Holdings Inc.’s futures-and-options trading business was when it
considered taking over
the defunct bank’s derivatives trades at exchanges in 2008, a Barclays
executive said.“Lehman’s books were in such a mess that I don’t think
they knew where they were,” Elizabeth James, a director of Barclays’s
futures business, testified today in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Manhattan. James
worked on Barclays’s purchase of Lehman’s brokerage during the 2008 financial
crisis.-- Bloomberg
I’ve railed for months that the central
issue surrounding the Financial Crisis (derivatives) was not only misunderstood
but completely ignored by the mainstream financial media. Here we are, nearly
two years after Lehman Brothers went bust, and they’re telling us that Lehman
had “no idea” what its options and futures exposure was.
Let’s put this into perspective.
The notional value of the derivatives
market at the time that Lehman went bust was somewhere between $600 trillion
and $1 Quadrillion (1,000 trillions). It was a market of inter-linked paper
contracts entangling virtually every financial institution (including some
non-financials), country (Greece, Italy used derivatives to get into the
European union), and county (Birmingham Alabama is one example) in the world. As
a market it was at least 20 times larger than the world stock market and
somewhere north of 10 times World GDP.
In other words, this was the giant
white elephant in the living room.
And here’s Lehman brothers, one of Wall
Streets’ finest, most respected financial institutions which had been in
business for over 150 years announcing that it had “no idea” “if
it had sold $2 billion more options than it had bought, or whether it owned $4
billion more than it had sold.”
In today’s world of trillion dollar
bailouts, $2-4 billion doesn’t sound like much, so let’s give some perspective
here… in its golden days, Lehman Brother’s market cap was roughly $47 billion.
So you’re talking about bets equal to an amount between five and 10% of its
market cap. Not exactly chump change.
And Lehman had no idea where it was or
how much it really owed.
Mind you, we’re only addressing
Lehman’s options and futures derivatives, we’re completely ignoring its
mortgage backed securities, collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), and other
Level 3 assets. Options and futures are literally the “tip of the iceberg,” the
most visible portion of the behemoth that was Lehman’s off balance sheet
derivative issues. After all, these are regulated
securities,
unlike most derivatives.
Now, if the above statement doesn’t
send shivers down your spine, have a look at the notional value of derivatives
exposure at the top five financial institutions in the US (mind you, this chart
is denominated in TRILLIONS). [chart]
If Lehman had “no idea” what it owned
even when it came to options and futures (regulated derivatives), what are the odds
that these other firms, whose derivative exposure is tens if not hundreds of
times larger than that of Lehman’s, might similarly be “in the dark’ regarding
their risk?
Moreover, who on earth might be on the
opposite end of these deals? Other US counties like Birmingham Alabama (which
JP Morgan transformed into 3rd world country status)? Other countries like
Italy or Greece (who used Goldman’s financial engineering to get into the
European Union)? My next-door neighbor’s house? Tim Geithner’s long-lost tax
returns? WHO KNOWS?
The point is that the very same issues
that nearly took the financial world under in 2008 still exist today. In fact,
this time around the systemic risk is even more severe.
Consider that the Credit Default Swap
(CDS) market which nearly took the financial system down in 2008 was roughly
$50-60 trillion in size. In contrast, the interest rate based derivative
market is in the ballpark of $500+ trillion.
Indeed, US commercial banks alone have
$182 TRILLION in notional value of interest rate based derivatives outstanding
right now. To put that ridiculous number in perspective it’s 13 times
US GDP and roughly three times WORLD GDP…’
Predicting
This Year's Bank Failures ‘The FDIC’s quarterly banking profile, providing
data for quarter 2, was released today. The number of 2010 United States bank
failures will likely exceed the 2009 failures, the FDIC reported. This was as I
reported in this space back in May. Thus far this year there have been 118 bank
closings, which compares to about 80 by the same time of year in 2009. The
number of banks on the problem list is still rising. It is now at 829 banks…’
Drudgereport: Auto sales:
Worst August since 1983...
Increase
in federal spending hits record (Washington Post) [ Sounds like a plan …
the ‘increase the depth of the nation’s bankruptcy’ plan! And, unlike other
american plans, this plan’s working … that bankruptcy thing … but otherwise,
not! ]
Is
the U.S. Bankrupt? [YES!] (at Motley Fool)
The Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts recently reported that
bankruptcy filings between April and June hit a four-year high. Consumer
bankruptcies rose 21 percent while business bankruptcies increased eight
percent. The list of corporate bankruptcies over the last couple of years
includes big names like Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual, and GM. And financial institutions like
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) received billions of dollars
through the federal government's Troubled Asset Relief Program. Should
investors add the U.S. government to that list of big name bankruptcies? I recently asked
Boston University economics professor Lawrence Kotlikoff, author of Jimmy Stewart is Dead: Ending the World's Ongoing
Financial Plague with Limited Purpose Banking.
Mac Greer:
Larry, I noticed the headline or the title of a recent article that you wrote, US
is Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It (see infra)
Home
prices up 4.2 percent in U.S. (Washington Post) [And america and ultimately
taxpayers paid for every percentage point with money they and soon taxpayers
don’t have and experts say the expiration of same will further be felt in the
form of declining real estate prices going forward. ]
Predicting
This Year's Bank Failures ‘The FDIC’s quarterly banking profile, providing
data for quarter 2, was released today. The number of 2010 United States bank
failures will likely exceed the 2009 failures, the FDIC reported. This was as I
reported in this space back in May. Thus far this year there have been 118 bank
closings, which compares to about 80 by the same time of year in 2009. The
number of banks on the problem list is still rising. It is now at 829 banks…’
Ron
Paul to Fed, Ft. Knox: Show Me the Gold
at Minyanville
The
Deteriorating Macro Picture
The rebound in assets was surprisingly strong and the
ability of corporations to sustain bottom line growth has been truly impressive
– far better than I expected. However, I am growing increasingly concerned that
the market has priced in overly optimistic earnings sustainability – in other
words, estimates
and expectations have overshot to the upside.
What we’ve seen over the last few years is not
terribly complex in my opinion. The housing boom created what was in essence a
massively leveraged household sector. The problems were compounded by the
leveraging in the financial sector, however, this was merely a symptom of the
real underlying problem and not the cause of the financial crisis (despite
what Mr. Bernanke continues to say and do to fix the economy) …’
Car
sales, spending up, but experts not convinced of trend (Washington Post) [
I’d say time for ‘mouth to mouth
resuscitation’ and a closer look isn’t even necessary. Some experts? Just ask
any guy on main street. Treading water? I’d say time for post-mortem on the
drowning victim.] But a closer look at those car sales raises questions about
whether the auto market - and consumer spending as a whole - are indeed on an
upward arc or whether they are just treading water.
In
the Middle East, it's still 1947 (Washington
Post) [ Indeed it should be! Among the few
times the cia was correct, and they’ve been trying to put square pegs in round
holes ever since, to america’s substantial detriment. I wonder what what those
american sailors of the US Liberty killed by the israelis would say? USS
Liberty Survivor Threatened by Unknown Israeli This is what happened to Phillip F. Tourney, decorated war hero
and survivor of Israel’s premeditated attack on the USS Liberty 43 years ago.
On the evening of Aug. 6, Tourney was verbally threatened by a foreign national
claiming to work for the government of israel. As for the purported disdain
shown for war mongerer netanayahu, if only wobama’s actions matched his words,
the same would represent a major plus for him and the nation of america, so
sorely in need of pluses whether the same be budgetary or economic or
geopolitical. In fact, for America to abrogate 1948 would guarantee America’s
survival, prosperity, and global hegemony in the most positive sense. ]
Obama
speech on Iraq has risks (Washington Post) [ Yeah, very true indeed!
The main one being that he’s supplanting that illegal, unnecessary,
nation-bankrupting war with yet another in Afghanistan which will not be lost
on those who supported his candidacy based on promised end to unnecessary war
policies which have diverted time, attention, ill-afforded resources including
personnel and continue to do so even as defacto bankrupt america crumbles.
]
Home
prices up 4.2 percent in U.S. (Washington Post) [And america and ultimately
taxpayers paid for every percentage point with money they and soon taxpayers
don’t have and experts say the expiration of same will further be felt in the
form of declining real estate prices going forward. ]
In the Eye of a Financial Katrina - http://seekingalpha.com/author/wall-street-sector-selector
Sunday, August 29th, was the fifth anniversary of Hurricane Katrina’s landfall
along the Gulf Coast and all of us vividly remember the horrific images of that
day and the days and weeks after. Five years later, the Gulf Coast has come a
long way but most would agree there’s still have a long way to go and many
scars yet to be healed. In the world of money and investing, the Financial
Katrina hit three years ago this month with the beginning of the sub prime meltdown
that led to the “Great Recession.” For the past year or so, we have been in
what appeared to be a recovery but now looks more like the eye of the storm;
today it is quite likely that the second wall of the hurricane is now rapidly
bearing down upon us. The news this week was intensely negative and the
only bright spot came on Friday with Chairman Bernanke’s speech at Jackson Hole
in which he essentially told us, “don’t worry, be happy” and that all would be
well. In spite of the Chairman’s calming tone, Wall Street Sector Selector
remains in the “red flag flying” mode and we believe that an intense storm lies
just ahead. Looking at My Screens On a technical basis,
one can only be bearish and the two charts below tell a quick and scary story.
[ chart
courtesy of StockCharts.com ]In the chart of the S&P 500 above
we see the “death cross” highlighted by the downward pointing arrow wherein the
50-Day Moving Average crossed below the 200-Day Moving Average which is a
widely followed indicator of lower stock prices ahead. In the upper box we see
the 14-day RSI pointing upwards from relatively oversold levels indicating that
a short term bounce could be forthcoming, while the red horizontal line shows
the support at 1040 which was tested and held every day last week. From this
display we can conclude that we are in a bear market, slightly oversold and
near support that, if broken, could lead to a quick drop to the July lows of
1010. [ chart
courtesy of StockCharts.com ] The point and figure chart above
paints an even more ominous picture. A double bottom “sell” signal was
generated on August 11th and the index has now broken through the blue bullish
support line, indicating the onset of a new bear market in this major index.
Support and resistance lines in point and figure charting tend to act like firm
walls and mark major turning points in direction, and this recent trend change
is the first since March, 2009, when the lows were hit and last year’s
unprecedented rally began. The breach of this bullish support line is a
major development and in my opinion is an unmistakable sign that it’s time to
head for the storm shelters. The View from 35,000 Feet
The fundamental news was equally shocking this week as existing home sales
declined to 3.8 million units for July from a previous level of 5.26 million.
This number is a record low and single family home sales were at the lowest
levels since 1995. Truly we are in what could only be described as a housing
market depression, and this comes in spite of historically low mortgage rates
that people appear to be ignoring. Seemingly almost nobody wants to buy a house
at any rate or any price. New home sales fared no better, declining to record
lows, as well, while 25% of mortgage holders are currently “upside down” in
their homes, owning more than they’re worth, and 15% are in some part of the
foreclosure process. Beyond the dismal news from the housing market, the July
Durable Goods report was dismal and points to an ongoing slowdown in capital
spending and on Friday 2nd Quarter GDP was revised downward to 1.6% from a
previous 2.4% in what could only be described as a terrifying result in light
of the stimulus and Federal Reserve intervention required to generate this
paltry number. More and more analysts are pointing to further reductions in
GDP for 3rd Quarter towards flat or even negative territory while the stock
market seems currently priced for 1.5-2.5% growth and this creates a situation
which is unlikely to have a positive outcome going forward. Looking across the spectrum of noted
analysts, we find Princeton economist and former Federal Reserve member Alan
Blinder writing an article in the Wall Street Journal titled, “The Fed is Running
out of Ammo” and noted Yale economist Robert Shiller appeared on the Wall
Street Journal’s “Big Interview” and said that a double dip “may be imminent.”
And finally Albert Edwards, the noted analyst from Societe General
says to look for 450 on the S&P 500, a roll back to 1982 levels. Fidelity
reports that in the second quarter 25% of people took hardship withdrawals from
their 401ks, a number that represents a 10 year high, to help them meet living
expenses and the ECRI remained in recessionary territory with a -9.9% reading
last week. On Friday Intel (INTC) cut its
earnings and revenue forecast and across the Atlantic Ireland was downgraded
and given a negative outlook by S&P. Also in Europe, interest rates and
Credit Default Swap pricing continued to rise as their sovereign debt situation
continues to erode confidence in the outcome of the European Central Bank’s
historic intervention efforts of a couple of months ago. The bond market remains
priced for Armageddon, forming what many say will one day be the biggest bubble
of all time and lead to a historic crash in the bond market somewhere down the
road. But on Friday, Dr. Bernanke cheered world markets when he told us that he
expected no double dip, that growth would continue and improve and that he and
his colleagues stood ready to do whatever it takes to avoid deflation and that
he had the tools to lead the global economy to recovery. This upbeat assessment
comes after unprecedented government stimulus, interest rates lowered to near
zero and $1.7 Trillion of asset purchases by the Fed since the onset of the
Great Recession. So one can only wonder how this is going to work. If the
medicine hasn’t worked so far, why would a little more of the same medicine
make a difference? What It All Means As we’ve been saying
for weeks, a double dip looks highly probable with the odds growing daily,
lower stock prices look likely and to make your chest feel even tighter, summer
is almost over, traders will be back from the Hamptons, the kids will be back
in school and we’re about to enter the dreaded month of September which is
historically the worst month for stock market performance. At Wall Street
Sector Selector, we remain in the “Red Flag” mode, expecting lower prices
ahead, and we forecast that the second storm wall of the Financial Katrina is
about to hit. The Week Ahead To say that a major week lies ahead is a massive understatement. Economic
Reports: A busy round of economic reports this week will give us a
look at personal income and spending, home prices, manufacturing and what the
Federal Reserve really thought at their recent meeting with everything leading
up to the climactic Non Farm Payroll report on Friday. Certainly all of this
will be food for thought going into the long Labor Day weekend. Tuesday:
0900: Case/Shiller 20 City Home Price Index 0945: August Chicago PMI
1000: August Consumer Confidence. 1400: FOMC Meeting Minutes Wednesday:
0815: July Construction Spending 1000: August ISM Index 1400: August
Auto Sales Thursday: 0830: Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims
1000: July Factory Orders 1000: July Pending Home Sales Friday: 0830: August Non Farm Payrolls 0830: August
Unemployment Rate 1000: ISM Services Sector Spotlight: Leaders:
Silver, Oil, Copper Laggards: Mexico, Global
Shipping, South Korea This week we’re heading for Southwest Florida for a last
week of R&R before school starts and reality strikes after the long Labor
Day weekend. We hope to have a nice time on the beach and not see any tar balls
between our toes. Sadly, I’m sure this year’s Labor Day celebration won’t be a
particularly happy occasion for the 14.6 million of our fellow citizens who
remain unemployed and I can only wish them the very best and a speedy return to
gainful employment and happier days ahead. Disclosure: RWM,
PSQ, SH, SEF, EFZ, SKF, VXX, S&P 500 Put Option
Five
reasons to be optimistic about the economy (Washington Post) Those Who Ignore History...
China’s
Central Bank Chief Rumored To Have Defected Rumors have circulated in China
that People’s Bank of China Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan has left the country. The
rumors appear to have started following reports on Aug. 28 which cited Ming
Pao, a Hong Kong-based news agency, saying that because of an approximately
$430 billion loss on U.S. Treasury bonds, the Chinese government may punish
some individuals within the PBOC, including Zhou.
Drudgereport:
AMERICA RUST- India's economy races 8.8%...
Russian
economy grows 4.0%...
German
unemployment rate 7.6%...
FDIC
MESS: 829 BANKS AT RISK...
48
HOURS: 21 American soldiers killed in Afghanistan...
Worst
August For Stocks Since 2001...
Congressional
Travel Stipends Probed...
Dems
face midterm meltdown...
Ron
Paul questions whether there's gold at Fort Knox, NY Fed...
Dow Falls
140 Points; Banks, Industrials Slide...
1
OUT OF 6 TAKE GOV'T AID...
Homelessness
Up 50% In New York City...
OBAMA
BLAMES BUSH AGAIN FOR ECONOMY … [ bush (et als) does deserve blame but with
flawed pro-fraudulent wall street among other non-policies and continued
nation-bankrupting war, wobama is a distinction without a difference and has
bought it and can no longer shirk responsibility with the blame game ] ...
Iran
state media call French first lady prostitute...
EDUCATION
SEC URGED STAFF: GO TO SHARPTON RALLY
Stocks
up [america down] (Washington Post) Previously
reported economic growth, upon which hundreds of rally ‘points’ were
predicated, revised down by 50% of the actual 1.6%. This is typical but no
small laughing matter which bespeaks the wayward ways of wall street that got
us to this debacle which also includes defacto bankruptcy of the nation. So,
GDP down, consumer confidence down, and stocks rally like no tomorrow (which is
the fraudulent wall street time horizon … they’ll just commission on the way
down). Am I missing something here, particularly when a more sobering view from
a rational player, INTEL, is far more credible? One former fed chair likened
no-recession-helicopter ben bernanke’s factually deficient, empty words to ‘a
doctor telling a patient he’s not sure of what the problem is (that economic
uncertainty thing he referenced), but if his leg gets worse he can always
amputate.’ Previously, as pertains to the jackson hole
no-recession-helicopter-ben b*** s*** non-event / talk. Fed action signals new activism (WP) [ Riiiiight!
The activist fed! That’s all we need. As if we needed more of what brought us
to this point! Certainly the fed’s role in the continuing and current financial
crisis / debacle cannot be ignored or disputed. Nothing like a hegelian
methodology to create the very problems
for which they are called upon to offer solutions, increasing their sense of
importance, and concentrating power thereby. (Think about it. It is really
rather quite absurd that each meeting time the financial markets hold their bated
breath for these incompetent boobs). Then there’s the cover-up with an
opportunity for enrichment of some, usually the tight-lipped yes-men then ever
after and forever bonded in what becomes tantamount to an almost fraternal link
by ‘virtue’ of the crime thereby. No, I’m not saying their initial missteps
were necessarily badly intended, but the manipulations thereafter to obfuscate
their incompetence (senile greenspun, no-recession-helicopter-ben, etc.) comes
at a great price and is nothing less than tantamount to or just outright crime.
I’d abolish the fed without hesitation or compunction. After all, at this point
of decline and defacto bankruptcy of the nation you certainly can’t point to
success nor argue their indispensability. Then there’s also the missing
trillions, over-printing of fiat currency, and all that sub rosa activity with
the worthless fraudulent toxic paper which I believe is being supplanted with
ultimately hard currency to the great benefit of the frauds and great detriment
to the nation.]
Fed
vows to act if economy stalls (Washington Post) [ Wow!
Really! Sounds like a plan! A ‘no-recession-helicopter-ben’ plan! One former fed chair / bk. pres. likened
no-recession-helicopter ben bernanke’s factually deficient, empty words to ‘a
doctor telling a patient he’s not sure of what the problem is (that economic
uncertainty thing no-recession-helicopter-ben referenced), but if his leg gets worse he can always amputate’
Why
is the recovery faltering? (Washington Post) [ Oooooh! ‘Dat ben! He
gives such great, unctuously soothing talks. Along with wobama, we must
consider this time, a time for defacto bankrupt American decline with the
cocomitant rise of b*** s*** . The watchwords are no longer (as in Hollywood
and elsewhere) ‘pastics’, ‘computer chips’,
but rather b*** s*** and more b*** s***! I truly must say, almost as a
‘revenge to Samuelson economics kind of thing’, that Mr. Samuelson here talks
symptoms rather than (structural) causes and totally misses the (big)
macroeconomic picture and should be chastised for faulting prudence.]
Helicopter
Ben Bernanke Says Everything Is Going To Be Okay Don’t worry everybody.
Federal Reserve Chairman “No Recession Helicopter Ben” Bernanke says that the
U.S. economy is going to be just fine, and that if it does slip up somehow the
Federal Reserve is ready to rush in to the rescue. That was essentially
Bernanke’s message to an annual gathering of central bankers in Jackson Hole,
Wyoming on Friday.
Is Ben Lost? [Yes!]
Butter ‘The much awaited
speech by Ben Bernanke, on Friday, was a bit of a non-event. It was
interesting, however, to see the 30 Year bounce, from 3.55% to 3.7%, the moment
that Ben explained his cunning plan to push long-term interest rates down. But
at least we learned that $140 billion of the $1.25 billion the Fed advanced to
buy agency debt and MBS, got repaid. One question Ben: “How much did you pay
for the $140 billion that got repaid? Did you make a profit, or are you going
to wait until Ron Paul’s audit before you let us know how that went?.” I know
I’ve got a dirty mind, but I can’t help thinking that if Ben had made a profit
on that transaction, he would have been crowing about it. I loved this bit,
particularly the “Thus”:
Thus, our purchases of Treasury, agency debt, and
agency MBS likely both reduced the yields on those securities and also pushed
investors into holding other assets with similar characteristics, such as
credit risk and duration. For example, some investors who sold MBS to the Fed
may have replaced them in their portfolios with longer-term, high-quality
corporate bonds, depressing the yields on those assets as well.
Hmm…
But this was
the kicker, admittedly hidden away between jargon-heaped on jargon, but there
all the same:
(Al those good things managed)... provide further
support for the economic recovery while maintaining price stability, the Fed
has also taken extraordinary measures to ease monetary and financial
conditions.
I especially
love the part about “further” support. As if the banks are going out and
lending money to Main Street, as opposed to simply using their free, Fed
supplied, get-out-of-jail card to create an illusion of solvency whilst they
“extend and pretend”. Similar to what happened in Japan after their bubble
burst. The real gem, however, was the idea of “maintaining price stability”.
What that means is stopping assets prices (house prices, commercial real
estate, and to some extent stocks) from going down to where they have to go, before
market clearing can start. Funny how when asset prices were bubbling through
the roof, that was not considered “inflationary” by the Fed and was not
something to be concerned about. But, when asset prices fall through the floor,
that is considered deflationary (or disinflationary), and is very bad. Ben
looks to me suspiciously like a greenhorn lost in the woods who used up all his
ammo shooting at shadows. And yet, there is the Big Bad Wolf of private sector
deleveraging faster than he can run the printing presses, (and more
importantly, get that money out into the real world) lurking round the corner.’
Corporate
Media Dismisses Castro’s Bin Laden Claim As Far-Fetched Conspiracy Theory The corporate media wasted little time in
seizing upon controversial Cuban leader Fidel Castro’s comments about Osama bin
Laden being a U.S. spy to deride the claim as a far-fetched conspiracy theory,
and yet the fact that Bin Laden was once a CIA protégé and has been used time
and again to the benefit of the U.S. government’s geopolitical agenda is a
documented fact.
Drudgereport: 7
US troops killed in latest Afghanistan fighting...
Castro:
Osama bin Laden is US spy...
PAPER:
CIA secretly paying Afghan officials...
7
U.S. troops die in Afghanistan violence (Washington
Post) [ I was discussing my opposition
to the contrived conflict in Iraq with a former air force man with high (top?)
security clearance from economic, geopolitical, and humanitarian perspectives;
and further, mentioned I had sought and gotten an appointment to West Point (I
was exempt) so I could go (Vietnam) as an officer rather than a grunt who were
being used as mere cannon fodder as now in Iraq (I also related the fact that I
am thankful, for a multitude of reasons, I changed my mind in light of then new
realities). He replied, quite seriously, that’s what they’re there for… No they
are not! But yes, that is their unequivocal, unforgiveable attitude beyond the
b*** s*** (look at cheney-5 deferments, bush-powderpuff duty courtesy of poppy
bush, clinton-draft dodger, wobama-never served, etc.. Just a destructive
waste!) The latest deaths bring
to 42 the number of American forces who have died this month in Afghanistan
after July's high of 66.
U.S.
officers weary and humbled (Washington Post) [ Indeed they should be; and, if they are able
to make sense of the last 2 decades particularly, they are certifiably true
american crazy, a condition in the u.s. and among it’s war mongering allies
that is found in self-destructive abundance. No joke! And then there are the
crimes / frauds. My position is also that such frauds as the disappearance of
the 360 tons of $100 bills, etc., and similar such frauds should come right off
the top, a direct reduction in their budget allocation particularly in light of
the defacto bankruptcy of the nation! ]
How Iraq vets make sense
of the last seven years will affect how america wields its military power [very
poorly indeed!] .
We’re Already In Recession [actually a depression] Harding ‘‘…
look at the trend. After an unusual four straight quarters of
negative growth in the severe 2008-2009 recession, the recession ended in the
September quarter of last year when GDP managed fragile growth of 1.6% for the
quarter, and then improved to 5.0% growth in the December quarter.It was
understood that much of that growth was temporary, fueled by government
spending, and spending by consumers provided with government bonuses and
rebates, as well as temporary rebuilding of inventories by businesses. But it
was expected that with that jumpstart the recovery could continue on its own
legs.So, it was a bit of a surprise when GDP growth slowed to 3.7% in the March
quarter of this year while those programs were still having an influence. But
economists still expected the economy would grow at a 3% pace in the June
quarter even with those programs winding down, and for the rest of the year.So,
it was a real disappointment when second quarter growth was reported a
month ago as having been only 2.4%. Plus, when additional data became
available for May and June, the last two months of the second quarter, and
those reports were increasingly negative, economists predicted that Q2 GDP
growth would be revised down to only 1.3%.On Friday, the revision was released,
and it showed growth last quarter slowed significantly, but only to 1.6%, not
as bad as the latest forecast.The media and the stock market, starving for good
news–and with the market short-term oversold after being down 10 of the
previous 13 days–took it as a positive. But let’s get real.The issue is
not whether economists got their forecast right or wrong, but the degree to
which economic growth is slowing. And a trend of 5% growth in the December
quarter, followed by a 1.3% decline to 3.7% growth in the March quarter,
followed by a 2.1% decline to 1.6% growth in the March quarter is a chilling
rate of decline.Now factor in that economic reports so far for July and August,
the first two months of the third quarter, have been significantly worse than
those of May and June, and significantly worse than economists’ forecasts, with
the relapse pretty much across the board; in the housing industry,
manufacturing, retail sales, consumer and business confidence, the decline in
U.S. exports, and so on.It’s not a stretch then to think that economic growth
is declining by another increment of more than 1.6% this quarter, which would
have it in negative territory, already in recession.In his speech Friday
morning at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Fed Chairman
Bernanke, while saying he still expects the economy to grow in the second half
“albeit at a relatively modest pace” did not put forth a very convincing
argument, using such phrases as “painfully slow recovery in the labor market”.
. . “economic projections are inherently uncertain”. . . . “the economy is
vulnerable to unexpected developments” . . . “the recovery is less vigorous
than we expected.”Nor did he seem confident that the Fed’s depleted arsenal of
tools to re-stimulate the economy would be effective if needed. Two of the four
possible actions he mentioned seemed to suggest consumers and markets could be
fooled into confidence with mere talk.His brief list of four possible actions
were, “1) conducting additional purchases of longer-term securities [bonds and
mortgage-related securities]; 2) modifying the Fed’s FOMC meeting
communications to investors; 3) reducing the interest the Fed pays banks on
their excess reserves. And I will also comment of a fourth strategy, proposed
by several economists- namely, that the Fed increase its inflation
goals.”Providing details on two of the four possible actions, he said, “The
Fed’s current statement after its FOMC meetings reflects the FOMC’s
anticipation that exceptionally low interest rates will be warranted ‘for an
extended period’ . . . A step the Committee could consider if conditions called
for it, would be to modify the language to communicate to investors that it
anticipates keeping the target for the federal funds rate low for a longer
period of time.”As for the fourth possible action in his list of four, he said
the Fed could alter the phrases it uses to communicate its goals for inflation
by “increasing its medium-term inflation goals above levels consistent with
price stability.”That’s scary stuff if those are two of the four actions the
Fed sees as its best options to re-stimulate the economy.Also of concern, in
its report revising Q2 GDP growth down to just 1.6%, the Commerce Department
reported that corporate earnings declined significantly in the second quarter,
after-tax earnings rising just 0.1%, compared to the gain of 11.4% in the first
quarter. Meanwhile, Wall Street continues to ratchet up its earnings
estimates.On the positive side, consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of
the economy, rose 2% in the second quarter, compared to 1.9% in the first
quarter. But the bad news is that the reports since, on consumer confidence and
retail sales in July and August, have been big disappointments.Putting it all
together, don’t be surprised if a couple of months down the road we learn the
economy was already in recession in the current quarter.’
Fed
vows to act if economy stalls (Washington Post) [ Wow!
Really! Sounds like a plan! A ‘no-recession-helicopter-ben’ plan! One former fed chair / bk. pres. (Brusca) likened no-recession-helicopter ben
bernanke’s factually deficient, empty words to ‘a doctor telling a patient he’s
not sure of what the problem is (that economic uncertainty thing no-recession-helicopter-ben referenced), but if his leg gets worse he can
always amputate’.] U.S. markets rebound on news that central bank will
step in if conditions unexpectedly worsen.
Drudgereport:
Analyst:
CITIGROUP 'Cooking the Books'...
Banks
back switch to renminbi for trade; Incentives to move from dollar and euro...
THE
SPEECH: Bernanke under pressure to prop it up...
'RECOVERY
SUMMER' ENDS SICK
GDP
REVISION: 1.6%
Says
recovery softer, Fed prepared to buy more...
Weaker
GDP raises stakes...
WIRE:
What Biden didn't
mention on stimulus...
ZUCKERMAN:
The Most Fiscally Irresponsible Government in History … along with bushes’...
Joint
Chiefs Chairman: National Debt is a Security Threat...
Recession
pushes US birth rate to new low...
RECOVERY
BUMMER: Youth employment lowest since 1948...
Thousands line up before dawn for mortgage help in Palm Beach
County...
Chossudovsky:
China could already be world’s largest economy
Is
the U.S. Bankrupt? [YES!] (at Motley Fool)
The Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts recently reported that
bankruptcy filings between April and June hit a four-year high. Consumer
bankruptcies rose 21 percent while business bankruptcies increased eight
percent. The list of corporate bankruptcies over the last couple of years
includes big names like Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual, and GM.
And financial institutions like Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) received billions of dollars
through the federal government's Troubled Asset Relief Program. Should
investors add the U.S. government to that list of big name bankruptcies? I recently asked
Boston University economics professor Lawrence Kotlikoff, author of Jimmy Stewart is Dead: Ending the World's Ongoing
Financial Plague with Limited Purpose Banking.
Mac Greer: Larry, I noticed the headline or the title of a
recent article that you wrote, US is Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It.
So with that in mind, what is your take on the economy these days?
Larry Kotlikoff: Well there is a lot of uncertainty, as
rightfully there should be. We have seen the financial sector implode basically
because of the systematic production and sale of trillions of dollars of
fraudulent securities under the cover of proprietary information, so nobody really
had the ability to look inside big companies like Bear Sterns or Merrill Lynch
to see exactly what they owned or owed. That problem remains today, even with
the passage of Dodd-Frank. There is no requirement that the financial industry
come clean with respect to what it is doing with our money, so every major
financial player says you can't see what we are doing because we have the Midas
touch. We are going to beat the market, and if we show you, everybody will see
our secret formula for making you a mint. As a result, they have a great cover
to produce fraudulent securities. And then when there is a sniff of fraud, one
can easily presume that everything they are doing is fraudulent, which may not
at all be the case. And then there is a run against those institutions as we
saw with Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers and all the other ones because of the
perception that so much of their holdings were fraudulent and that their
reporting was fraudulent. And of course the rating companies and the regulators
and the boards of directors and the members of Congress were all, in effect, in
bed with each other to achieve this result. I don't see anything that has
fundamentally changed, so that is one major area of fragility. We could have
another meltdown in the financial market tomorrow because as Dick Fuld [Lehman
former CEO] said, he claims that their balance sheet was just fine and that
this was all just a panic, it was not connected with any facts. Well, he said
that every institution on Wall Street --- Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) -- could have
experienced the same thing. His concern about this happening to other companies
is well taken. So we have a financial system that is set up to fail again, and
we have a fiscal situation which is a complete and dire mess. It could lead to
a financial panic that could lead to a much bigger meltdown of the financial
system than we have seen.
Greer: Is the U.S. bankrupt?
Kotlikoff: Bankruptcy means not being able to pay your future
bills. If you can't pay your current bills, your creditors are already after
you so you already are bankrupt. If you can't pay your future bills, that
really is the operational definition of going bankrupt or being bankrupt. The
U.S. government can't pay its future bills. These bills, in total, in present
value, exceed the revenues by $202 trillion. This is based on taking the data projected
by CBO (Congressional Budget Office) back on June 26 of this year, when they
put out their alternative fiscal scenario, which is their best long-term
projection of government spending, including servicing the official debt, and
government revenues. And if you present value the differential between spending
and revenues, including extrapolating beyond their projection which is
important to do, you get a fiscal gap of $202 trillion. To come up with
$202 trillion in present value, you'd have to immediately and permanently
double all taxes we have. You'd have to do it immediately. We're talking
here about running a 5% GDP surplus this year instead of running a 9% deficit.
So I don't see that happening. We have to cut spending or we have to print money.
Either way you're cutting spending so either way you're, in effect, reining in
spending promises. And that suits my definition of bankruptcy. And I think
there are ways of cutting spending and getting our fiscal house in order but we
need to engage in radical surgery here and not putting on the band-aid that
this administration is so fond of.
Greer: One of our Motley Fool writers recently interviewed Euro Pacific Capital President Peter
Schiff. In 2006, he was predicting the economic downturn, and he now
says that we are, "In the early stages of a depression now. It is going to
be a horrific experience for average Americans who are going to watch their
standard of living plunge." Do you agree?
Kotlikoff: Well, this has been a depression so far for
millions of Americans. It didn't have to happen. It is really man-made. We have
the same physical capital and human capital sitting here in place. We don't
have to stay in a depressed state. The problem is that things are not
coordinated. We don't have buyers optimistic about getting paid salaries and we
don't have sellers optimistic about being able to find buyers, so everybody is
kind of sitting on their hands. We can have some, a bunch of KISS's, which are
"keep it simple, stupid" solutions to our problems, and lots of
people throughout the country realize this, that we need to fix things
fundamentally. We can't do it with 2,000 page bills that make bureaucratic
structures that are basically clogging up our economic arteries, even more
bureaucratic…
China
Buys Euros as Fear of World Depression Grows Webster G. Tarpley
| The one certainty is that there is no recovery, and that the second wave of a
world economic depression dominates the world.
Economy Caught in Depression, Not Recession: Rosenberg Positive
gross domestic product readings and other mildly hopeful signs are masking an
ugly truth: The US economy is in a 1930s-style Depression, Gluskin Sheff
economist David Rosenberg said Tuesday. ‘Positive gross domestic product
readings and other mildly hopeful signs are masking an ugly truth: The US
economy is in a 1930s-style Depression, Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg
said Tuesday. Writing in his daily briefing to investors, Rosenberg said the
Great Depression also had its high points, with a series of positive GDP
reports and sharp stock market gains. But then as now, those signs of recovery
were unsustainable and only provided a false sense of stability, said
Rosenberg. Rosenberg calls current economic conditions
“a depression, and not just some garden-variety recession,” and notes
that any good news both during the initial 1929-33 recession and the one that
began in 2008 triggered “euphoric response.”
Even
Tony Robbins Is Warning That An Economic Collapse Is Coming It seems like almost
everyone is warning of a coming economic collapse these days.
Why to Expect a Bipolar Market Move Next Week [Well, I don’t know about a diagnosis of
bipolar, but ‘criminally insane’; yes, that’s wall street in a nutshell.]
Bond Bubble, Dollar Doom - Embrace The Fear Says Fisher [ Riiiiight!
Sounds like a plan … to bail out the frauds on wall street as they sell their
‘hot potatoes’ in their typical ‘musical chair’ pre-crash charade! ] ‘… Hussman:
Dollar Collapse Coming: In his latest market commentary, top fund
manager John Hussman continues to express a bearish view, and says that more
quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve is likely to
trigger “an abrupt collapse in the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar”.
Hussman offers something of a primer on exchange rates, and concludes by saying
this: “The policy of quantitative easing is likely to force a large adjustment
on the U.S. dollar because the Federal Reserve is choosing to lay a heavier
hand on the Treasury bond market than would result from economic conditions
alone,” he says. “The resulting shift in interest rates and long-term inflation
prospects combine to dramatically reduce the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar.
A significant and relatively abrupt devaluation is then required, in an amount
sufficient to set up expectations of a U.S. dollar appreciation over time.” Special
Offer: People mocked Gary Shilling when he said SELL in 2006 and 2007. But he
was right and his subscribers are richer for it. Click here for Gary Shilling’s
current investment advice. As for the market, Hussman says he
continues to see unfavorable valuations, unfavorable market action, and
unfavorable economic pressures. The Fed’s new go at quantitative easing may
well limit deflationary fears, he says, which has led him to increase exposure
to precious metals and foreign currencies. Hussman also says the U.S. should
focus on restructuring debt, and offers his take on how it should do so …’
U.S. Financial System Still "Fundamentally
Corrupt," Kotlikoff Says: Here's How to Fix It ‘We have a "fundamentally corrupt
financial system" and the Dodd-Frank reform bill did nothing to change it,
says Boston University economics professor Laurence
Kotlikoff. "Relatively little has changed except there are
going to be more federal regulators who are probably going to miss major
problems." At the core of the 2008 crisis was "the production and
sale of trillions of fundamentally fraudulent securities," Kotlikoff says,
suggesting all levels of society participated in the fraud -- including
homeowners. At the center of it all were financial intermediaries (a.k.a. Wall
Street) who packaged and sold "snake oil under the guise of proprietary
information" to limit or eliminate disclosure, and enabled by corrupt
rating agencies, regulators and elected officials, he says. In the accompanying video, Kotlikoff explains
how we can "make Wall Street safe for Main Street." In short, we should transform all financial
companies with limited liability (banks, hedge funds, private equity firms and
insurance companies alike) into mutual funds, which the professor describes as
"little banks that have 100% capital requirements. " Notably, the big
mutual fund companies survived the "financial earthquake" of 2008-09
when the rest of the financial system collapsed, Kotlikoff recalls. In late
2009, Kotlikoff and Harvard's Niall Ferguson penned an op-ed for The FT describing a blueprint for
how to take moral hazard out of banking. Citing a speech by Bank of England
governor Mervyn King, Kotlikoff and Ferguson called for "limited purpose
banking" (LPB), that would "limit banks to their legitimate purpose -
financial intermediation and payment facilitation." Nine months later,
Kotlikoff remains convinced this "very simple reform" remains a much
better alternative than the financial reform bill hammered out in Washington -
with plenty of influence from Wall Street lobbyists. "We are rebuilding
[the system] out of straw rather than out of brick," Kotlikoff says, suggesting
his "LPB" proposal will ultimately be good for the economy and
provide a model for the rest of the world. "If we have a safe, sound
[financial] structure other countries will follow suit," he says.’
100-Year Bonds --- Sign of Trouble?
Even
Tony Robbins Is Warning That An Economic Collapse Is Coming It seems like
almost everyone is warning of a coming economic collapse these days.
National / World:
Saudi
couple hammer 24 hot nails into their maid after she complained of heavy
workload [Saudi Arabia is total
b*** s***. Time for displacement of the saudi mob family, and establishment of
a meaningful nation-state! They are an embarrassment to Muslims everywhere!] A
Saudi couple tortured their Sri Lankan maid by hammering 24 hot nails into her
after she complained of her heavy workload. Mrs Ariyawathi told a local
newspaper that her employers tortured her with the nails as punishment.
Drudgereport:
MORGAN
STANLEY: Government Bond Defaults Inevitable...
Roubini:
Growth to Be 'Well Below' 1% ...
New Home
Sales Sink to Lowest Pace on Record...
POLITICO:
SOME DEMS THINK HOUSE IS GONE...
INTEL
CEO blasts Obama, Dems; USA faces looming tech decline...
LETTERMAN
TURNS: 'He'll have plenty of time for vacations after his one term' … [ This
really is so true … wobama is so total, typical b*** s*** ] ...
Economy Caught in Depression, Not Recession: Rosenberg Positive
gross domestic product readings and other mildly hopeful signs are masking an
ugly truth: The US economy is in a 1930s-style Depression, Gluskin Sheff
economist David Rosenberg said Tuesday. ‘Positive gross domestic product
readings and other mildly hopeful signs are masking an ugly truth: The US
economy is in a 1930s-style Depression, Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg
said Tuesday. Writing in his daily briefing to investors, Rosenberg said the
Great Depression also had its high points, with a series of positive GDP
reports and sharp stock market gains. But then as now, those signs of recovery
were unsustainable and only provided a false sense of stability, said
Rosenberg. Rosenberg calls current economic conditions
“a depression, and not just some garden-variety recession,” and notes
that any good news both during the initial 1929-33 recession and the one that
began in 2008 triggered “euphoric response.”
Even
Tony Robbins Is Warning That An Economic Collapse Is Coming It seems like
almost everyone is warning of a coming economic collapse these days.
Why to Expect a Bipolar Market Move Next Week [Well, I don’t know about a diagnosis of
bipolar, but ‘criminally insane’; yes, that’s wall street in a nutshell.]
Bond Bubble, Dollar Doom - Embrace The Fear Says Fisher [ Riiiiight!
Sounds like a plan … to bail out the frauds on wall street as they sell their
‘hot potatoes’ in their typical ‘musical chair’ pre-crash charade! ] ‘… Hussman:
Dollar Collapse Coming: In his latest market commentary, top fund
manager John Hussman continues to express a bearish view, and says that more
quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve is likely to
trigger “an abrupt collapse in the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar”.
Hussman offers something of a primer on exchange rates, and concludes by saying
this: “The policy of quantitative easing is likely to force a large adjustment
on the U.S. dollar because the Federal Reserve is choosing to lay a heavier
hand on the Treasury bond market than would result from economic conditions
alone,” he says. “The resulting shift in interest rates and long-term inflation
prospects combine to dramatically reduce the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar.
A significant and relatively abrupt devaluation is then required, in an amount
sufficient to set up expectations of a U.S. dollar appreciation over time.” Special
Offer: People mocked Gary Shilling when he said SELL in 2006 and 2007. But he
was right and his subscribers are richer for it. Click here for Gary Shilling’s
current investment advice. As for the market, Hussman says he
continues to see unfavorable valuations, unfavorable market action, and
unfavorable economic pressures. The Fed’s new go at quantitative easing may
well limit deflationary fears, he says, which has led him to increase exposure
to precious metals and foreign currencies. Hussman also says the U.S. should
focus on restructuring debt, and offers his take on how it should do so …’
Launch
of secret US space ship masks even more secret launch of new weapon
Review of John Vaillant's
"The Tiger: A True Story of Vengeance and Survival" Montgomery [Truly
my kind of hero!](Washington Post http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/27/AR2010082702288.html?hpid=features1&hpv=national Buy this book. I will! ) [Truly my kind of hero! (As a matter of
disclosure, I like all cats, big and small!) I do believe an important point to
be gleened here is how totally primative the Chinese are which makes this
current economic scenario we’re experiencing courtesy Clinton, and particularly
the bushes, ie., (captain cia ambassador poppy) who themselves have a long
documented familial history of primative behaviors (ie., war profiteering, war
crimes, etc.; the bushes are such can’t do anything well vegetables),
especially disheartening. I mean, after all, isn’t the communist Chinese
business model, simply put, probably the most primitive one this world has ever
known; viz., slave labor. I say, boycott china products; impose tariffs,
sanctions, restrictions on the products of the primitive communist Chinese
mongrels. ]
Stepped-up
efforts fail to stem drug money (Washington Post) [ Come on! Wake up! That’s american, yes american big business.
The stuff that the war in Afghanistan is made of; viz., ie., heroin, etc..
]Stashing cash in spare tires, engine transmissions and truckloads of baby
diapers, couriers for Mexican drug cartels are moving tens of billions of
dollars in profits south across the border each year, a river of dirty money
that has overwhelmed U.S. and Mexican customs agents.
The Bush-Carlyle Connection
There’s no
business like war business
05/11/03: (Information Clearing House)
There are so many connections between the Bushes, the ‘Defence’ establishment,
the global trade in arms, that the mind boggles. That it barely gets a mention
in the mainstream media (except of course, to simply ‘report’ it) is a scandal
of the grandest proportions. But it only goes to show the power of big business
and the political class they have installed in both the US and the UK..
Former
FBI Agent Reveals New Angle On Kennedy Assassination [bush, typically, was involved up to his
eyeballs, and ‘knuck’ (knucklehead not-to-bright ford) the typical go along to get along. ]‘… Despite
the threat and possibility of a conspiracy to assassinate the president, the
FBI and Secret Service allowed Kennedy to travel to Dallas. “[They] should have
stopped the President from traveling instantly,” said Adams.
bush/Carlyle
cont’d … (after all, John Major is employed by the Carlyle Group and BAE
Systems, the major arms supplier to the UK, is part-owned by Carlyle). Not only
the connections beggar belief but the sheer hypocrisy of the Bush government
should put it in a new category in the Guinness Book of Records! As you’ll see
from just of a few of the links to information on Carlyle below, their
tentacles extend to many of the armed conflicts going on in the world. There’s
no business like war business!
I’ve presented
them in no particular order, the common denominator is the Bush family.
"Arms
Buildup Enriches Firm Staffed by Big Guns"
Defense:
Ex-president and other elites are behind weapon-boosting Carlyle Group.
By Mark
Fineman, Times Staff Writer January 10 2002
Source: http://www.truthout.org/docs_01/01.11F.Arms.Carlyle.htm
"The Best
Enemies Money Can Buy"
From Hitler To
Saddam Hussein to Osama bin Laden - Insider Connections and the Bush Family's
Partnership with Killers of Americans
Brown
Brothers, Harriman - BNL- and the Carlyle Group By Michael C. Ruppert
Source: http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/10_09_01_carlyle.html
"Legal
Group Blasts Papa Shrub on Bin Laden Link"
Bush Sr. Could
Profit From War by Geoffrey Gray October 11th, 2001, Village Voice
Source: http://www.villagevoice.com/issues/0141/gray.php
"BUSH
WATCH…BUSH MONEY"
Source: http://www.bushwatch.com/bushmoney.htm
"CHRONOLOGY:
The Bushes And The Carlyle Group" Bushnews.com
Source: http://www.bushnews.com/bushcarlyle.htm
"The
Bush-Carlyle Group Archive" Buzzflash
A link to a
number of links on the Carlyle Group
Source: http://www.buzzflash.com/perspectives/2002/Bush-Carlyle.html
Carlyle's way
Making a mint inside "the iron triangle" of defense, government, and
industry. By Dan Briody January 8, 2002 Red Herring
Source: http://www.redherring.com/vc/2002/0111/947.html
"The
Carlyle Group" Spectrazine
Alfred Mendes
looks at a single US investment corporation and asks some pertinent questions
about democracy, terrorism and power.
Source: http://www.spectrezine.org/global/carlyle.htm
"Crony
Reform" Slate
How the access
capitalists at the Carlyle Group became real businessmen.
By Daniel
Gross Tuesday, April 15, 2003
Source: http://slate.msn.com/id/2081572/
"The Big
Guns: The Carlyle Group and Defense Lobbying" OpenSecrets.org
Source: http://www.opensecrets.org/alerts/v6/alertv6_52.asp
"The
Carlyle Group; Elder Bush in Big G.O.P. Cast Toiling for Top Equity Firm"
by Leslie Wayne Monday, March 5, 2001, New York Times
Source: http://www.commondreams.org/headlines01/0305-03.htm
"The
Pakistan-India conflict is being funded and fomented by the same faces that
brought you the war on terrorism"
A particularly
evil manifestation of the arms business is the one in the on-going low
intensity war between in India and Pakistan and the Carlyle Group’s role in it
Source: http://www.propagandamatrix.com/pakistan_india.html
"US arms
group heads for Lisbon: The Carlyle Group, integrated by the Bush and bin Laden
families awarded a billion dollar contract to "rebuild Iraq", 6
April 2003
Source: http://globalresearch.ca/articles/NEW304A.html
"Bush's
Favorite Terrorist Buddy & Carlyle Group (Bush, Sr. Etc) Profits Increasing
From Afghan War"
Source: http://www.apfn.org/apfn/WTC_profits.htm
"Former
President Bush Works for International Investment Firm With Ties To Saudi Arabia"
- Company Had Bin Laden Family Connections Judicial Watch
Source: http://www.judicialwatch.org/1685.shtml
"Meet the
Carlyle Group"
How will
President George W. Bush personally make million$, if not billion$ from the War
on Terror? The easy way. He’ll inherit it. Former World Leaders and
Washington Insiders Making Billions in the War on Terrorism
Source: http://www.angelfire.com/indie/pearly/htmls/bush-carlyle.html
"Carlyle
group scandal"
Source: http://linkthing.com/screed/carlyle_group_cluster.html
WIKIPEDIA http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlyle_Group ‘The Carlyle Group is a global private equity investment firm, based in Washington, D.C., with more than $84.5 billion of equity capital under management, diversified over 64 different funds as of March 31, 2009.[1] The firm operates four fund families, focusing on leveraged buyouts, growth capital, real estate and leveraged finance investments. The firm employs more than 890 employees, including 495 investment professionals in 20 countries with several offices in the Americas, Europe, Asia and Australia; its portfolio companies employ more than 415,000 people worldwide. Carlyle has over 1300 investors in 71 countries. Carlyle was ranked in 2007 as the largest private equity firm in the world, according to a ranking called the PEI 50 based on capital under management.[2] However, the firm moved down to second largest as of May 2010.[3] …’
New-home
sales hit a 40-year low | Your
take (Washington Post) [ A 40 yr low? … At least it’s a record, say the
frauds on wall street and how much worse can it be? Much worse, says reality! Economy Caught in Depression, Not Recession: Rosenberg / Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman
says the US is in the "early stages of a third Great Depression.
]
Fed
policy is foggy as economic picture clouds (Washington
Post) [ Wow! Look to ‘no recession helicopter ben for guidance’? You’re hurting
my ears and eyes, again. Meanwhile, everyone’s waiting for buh, buh, buh, benny
and his jets to say no depression. At least we’ll be able to add certainty,
albeit the opposite of what he says. But the fact is already that, ‘This is a global depression. This is a
secular bear market in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated
bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically
manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that
the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into.’ ] With housing market retreating,
unemployment lingering and Fed officials in open disagreement, markets look to
Bernanke for guidance.
Economy Caught in Depression, Not Recession: Rosenberg
Even
Tony Robbins Is Warning That An Economic Collapse Is Coming It seems like
almost everyone is warning of a coming economic collapse these days.
Why to Expect a Bipolar Market Move Next Week [Well, I don’t know about a diagnosis of
bipolar, but ‘criminally insane’; yes, that’s wall street in a nutshell.]
Bond Bubble, Dollar Doom - Embrace The Fear Says Fisher [ Riiiiight!
Sounds like a plan … to bail out the frauds on wall street as they sell their
‘hot potatoes’ in their typical ‘musical chair’ pre-crash charade! ] ‘… Hussman:
Dollar Collapse Coming: In his latest market commentary, top fund
manager John Hussman continues to express a bearish view, and says that more
quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve is likely to
trigger “an abrupt collapse in the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar”.
Hussman offers something of a primer on exchange rates, and concludes by saying
this: “The policy of quantitative easing is likely to force a large adjustment
on the U.S. dollar because the Federal Reserve is choosing to lay a heavier
hand on the Treasury bond market than would result from economic conditions
alone,” he says. “The resulting shift in interest rates and long-term inflation
prospects combine to dramatically reduce the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar.
A significant and relatively abrupt devaluation is then required, in an amount
sufficient to set up expectations of a U.S. dollar appreciation over time.” Special
Offer: People mocked Gary Shilling when he said SELL in 2006 and 2007. But he
was right and his subscribers are richer for it. Click here for Gary Shilling’s
current investment advice. As for the market, Hussman says he
continues to see unfavorable valuations, unfavorable market action, and
unfavorable economic pressures. The Fed’s new go at quantitative easing may
well limit deflationary fears, he says, which has led him to increase exposure
to precious metals and foreign currencies. Hussman also says the U.S. should
focus on restructuring debt, and offers his take on how it should do so …’
Even
Tony Robbins Is Warning That An Economic Collapse Is Coming It seems like
almost everyone is warning of a coming economic collapse these days.
Second
Hindenburg Omen Confirmation In As Many Days, Third H.O. Event In One Week
Jim
Rogers: If You Want Your Family To Be Silly Rich In The Future, Then Leave
America And Move To Asia Now As you may know, Jim Rogers moved to Singapore
in 2007, though he maintains a residence in the U.S. as well.
U.S. Financial System Still "Fundamentally
Corrupt," Kotlikoff Says: Here's How to Fix It ‘We have a "fundamentally corrupt
financial system" and the Dodd-Frank reform bill did nothing to change it,
says Boston University economics professor Laurence
Kotlikoff. "Relatively little has changed except there are
going to be more federal regulators who are probably going to miss major
problems." At the core of the 2008 crisis was "the production and
sale of trillions of fundamentally fraudulent securities," Kotlikoff says,
suggesting all levels of society participated in the fraud -- including
homeowners. At the center of it all were financial intermediaries (a.k.a. Wall
Street) who packaged and sold "snake oil under the guise of proprietary
information" to limit or eliminate disclosure, and enabled by corrupt
rating agencies, regulators and elected officials, he says. In the accompanying video, Kotlikoff
explains how we can "make Wall Street safe for Main Street." In short, we should transform all financial
companies with limited liability (banks, hedge funds, private equity firms and
insurance companies alike) into mutual funds, which the professor describes as
"little banks that have 100% capital requirements. " Notably, the big
mutual fund companies survived the "financial earthquake" of 2008-09
when the rest of the financial system collapsed, Kotlikoff recalls. In late
2009, Kotlikoff and Harvard's Niall Ferguson penned an op-ed for The FT describing a blueprint for
how to take moral hazard out of banking. Citing a speech by Bank of England
governor Mervyn King, Kotlikoff and Ferguson called for "limited purpose
banking" (LPB), that would "limit banks to their legitimate purpose -
financial intermediation and payment facilitation." Nine months later,
Kotlikoff remains convinced this "very simple reform" remains a much
better alternative than the financial reform bill hammered out in Washington -
with plenty of influence from Wall Street lobbyists. "We are rebuilding
[the system] out of straw rather than out of brick," Kotlikoff says,
suggesting his "LPB" proposal will ultimately be good for the economy
and provide a model for the rest of the world. "If we have a safe, sound
[financial] structure other countries will follow suit," he says.’
Home
sales drop to lowest level in 15 years [ Get those foreclosure sales
rollin’ say the frauds on wall street who will spin same to their
market-frothing delight! ]
100-Year Bonds --- Sign of Trouble?
Even
Tony Robbins Is Warning That An Economic Collapse Is Coming It seems like
almost everyone is warning of a coming economic collapse these days.
National / World:
Drudgereport:
MORGAN
STANLEY: Government Bond Defaults Inevitable...
Roubini:
Growth to Be 'Well Below' 1% ...
New Home
Sales Sink to Lowest Pace on Record...
POLITICO:
SOME DEMS THINK HOUSE IS GONE...
INTEL
CEO blasts Obama, Dems; USA faces looming tech decline...
LETTERMAN
TURNS: 'He'll have plenty of time for vacations after his one term' … [ This
really is so true … wobama is so total, typical b*** s*** ] ...
Drudgereport: GALLUP GENDER GAP: Obama's
Approval Among Men Hits All-Time Low of 39%...
LOBOTOMY JOE BIDEN: 'We're
moving in right direction'… Right lobotomy joe, anything you say! ...
Worries about recovery
deepen...
'Hindenburg Omen' creator
exits stock market...
Economy in 'Depression, Not Recession'...
Dow Faces 'Bouncy Ride to 5,000'...
Typical Slow Summer -- or Something Darker?
Drop in Home Sales Renews
Pricing Fears...
Investors Scatter to
Safety...
Unemployed group blasts
Geithner's handling of economy...
BOEHNER URGES OBAMA TO
FIRE...
'Government as community
organizer' has failed...
LA UNVEILS $578 MILLION
SCHOOL
More Expensive Than China's
Olympic Stadium!
California Delays $2.9
Billion School, County Payments Amid Budget Impasse...
'Beat Whitey Night': Iowa
racial attacks at state fair... POLICE REPORTS...
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Did Google Block “Barry
Soetoro” Search Term? Screenshots obtained by a Prison Planet reader suggest
that Google may have moved to de-list “Barry Soetoro” as a popular search term
shortly after it rose to the top of the Google Trends charts after yesterday’s
effort by radio talk show host Alex Jones to focus attention on Barack Obama’s
real name.
100-Year Bonds --- Sign of Trouble?
Monday in the Markets: MOJO Extremes The decline in yields is overdone, gold is
overbought, and crude oil and the euro are oversold. The Dow is not
oversold.The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury tested 2.531 on Friday versus my
quarterly risky level at 2.495. Gold tested $1239.5 last week and today’s risky
level is $1241.7. For Crude oil this week’s pivot is $73.59 with my annual
pivot at $77.05. The euro is below its 50-day simple moving average at 1.2739
this morning. For the Dow today’s value level is 9,983 with the 50-day simple
moving average at 10,303, and weekly and annual pivots at 10.358 and 10,379.
10-Year Note – (2.612) My annual pivot is 2.813 with a weekly pivot at 2.574
and daily risky level at 2.507. My annual value level is 2.999 with quarterly
and semiannual risky levels at 2.495 and 2.249. Note that the decline
in yield is extremely overdone [charts] …
World Indices / Week ended
August 20, 2010 Yahoo Finance
BEAR MARKET MATH - JULY LOWS IN
DANGER , On Friday August
20, 2010, 4:53 pm EDT ‘
1+1=2
2+2=4
The simplicity
and accuracy of those calculations is undeniable. How about this equation?
Fundamental Weakness + Technical Sell Signals + Overpriced Stocks = Lower Stock
Prices. This calculation also seems to be simple and accurate. Let's look at
some equations that don't make sense.
1+1=3 or Better Earnings = Higher Stock Prices Earnings season is over. Most companies
beat earnings but issued cautious forecasts. This is particularly true of the
tech (NYSEArca: XLK - News)
and financial sectors (NYSEArca: XLF - News).
By large, profits are still driven by cost-cutting, not organic growth. Retail
sales, which make up about one third of the economy, continued to fall after
the second quarter ended. Additionally, the expectation that taxes will go up
might have moved some companies to pull some of next year's income into this
year. This can't be good for Q3 and Q4 profits. As the chart below shows,
positive earnings reports are not bullish for stocks, especially if future
guidance is weak.[chart]
2+2=5 or Weaker than Expected Economy = Rising Stock Prices On July 30, the Bureau of Economic
Analysis (BEA) lowered the previous quarter's Gross Domestic Product (GD)
growth from an estimated 2.7% to 2.4%. But it didn't stop there. The real GDP
for all three previous years was revised as well. It was lowered by 0.2% for
2007, it was lowered by 0.6% for 2008, and it was lowered by 0.4% for 2009. In
percentage terms, the real GDP for 2007 was revised down from 2.5% growth to
2.3%. The 2008 decrease was lowered from 1.9% to 2.8% and 2009 growth was
revised up from a 0.1% to a 0.2% increase. In essence, the BEA proved that the
recession was (or is) much deeper than perceived and the alleged recovery much
weaker than previously reported. This comes as no surprise, as the key sector
of the financial debacle - real estate (NYSEArca: IYR
- News)
- remains in a funk. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that the number of vacant
properties, including foreclosures, residences for sale, and vacation homes,
reached 18.9 million. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continue to lose money. Has
anyone ever wondered how banks (NYSEArca: KBE
- News)
can make money on the same kind of loans that pushed Fannie and Freddie to the
brink of ruin? Since bad real estate loans triggered the post 2007 economic
meltdown, how can the economy recover without real estate leading the way?
3+3=7 or Positive
Analyst Estimates = Higher Stock Prices A recent Associated Press article observed that 'analysts
only seem to hit the mark with their estimates in the strongest economic times
(2003 - 2006).' Why? 'The problem is that analysts get most of their
information from the companies they cover. Corporate managers have every
incentive to stay positive for as long as they can.' Is that true; as true as
1+1=2? On April 26, the day the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) topped at 1,219, the Dow
(DJI: ^DJI) at 11,258, the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) at 2,535, Bloomberg reported
the following: 'U.S. stocks cheapest since 1990 on analyst estimates.' Contrary
to analyst estimates, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter stated that 'the potential
exists that Monday's high marked a significant top.' Since April, the broad
market (NYSEArca: TWM - News)
dropped as much as 17%. In March 2009, with the Dow below 7000 and the S&P
below 700, analysts lowered their earnings forecasts from $113 in April 2008 to
$40. On March 2nd, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter sent out a Trend Change
Alert and recommended to buy long and leveraged long ETFs such as the Ultra
Financial (NYSEArca: UYG - News)
and Ultra S&P 500 ProShares (NYSEArca: SSO
- News).
If you care to know, analysts estimate that earnings for the S&P 500 will
exceed their 2006 all-time high, in 2011. Based on that assumption, stocks are
cheap. How about that for flawed math?
4+4=9 or Technical Sell Signals = Higher Stock Prices The 200-day moving average (MA) is one
of the best-known technical indicators, as it provides delineation between
technically healthy and sick stocks. On May 20, the S&P closed below the
200-day MA for the first time since late 2007. Every attempt to rally and stay
above it has since failed miserably. On July 2, the 50-day MA for the S&P
dropped below its 200-day MA for the first time since late 2007. The same holds
true for mid caps (NYSEArca: MDY - News),
small caps (NYSEArca: IWM - News)
and nearly all individual sector indexes. For good reason, this is called a
Death Cross. Over the past ten years, the death cross has been accurate 75% of
the time, with a 19.72% average return on six winning trades and 6.95% average
return on two losing trades. In addition to the Death Cross, there are two head
and shoulders patterns, one in the making for over 10 years, and the other has
the breadth suggestive of a major meltdown (see September ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter).
5+5=11 or Overvalued Stocks = Higher Prices As explained above, based on overly
optimistic earnings estimates, analysts believe that stocks are cheap. Rather
than basing a future outlook on estimates, it makes sense to use facts as a
foundation for any outlook. Why add an extra variable to what's already an
unpredictable market? Ask Yale Professor Robert Shiller, who's done extensive
research on the subject of valuations, and he'll tell you stocks are
historically overvalued based on the current P/E ratio. Compare today's P/E
ratio with the P/E ratio seen at major market bottoms, and you'll see that
stocks are overvalued by more than 50%. Another gauge that doesn't lie is
dividend yields. A company's dividends are a direct reflection of cash flow and
financial health. The current yield is 2.65% for the Dow and 2.05% for the
S&P. Even value funds like the iShares Russell 1000 Value (NYSEArca: IWD
- News)
yield only a measly 2.08%. Dividends are close to their all-time low set in
1999 (we know what happened then). This means that companies are cash strapped
or overvalued. Looking at a long-term chart of dividend yields plotted against
stock prices shows clearly that markets don't bottom until dividends skyrocket.
Just as ice doesn't thaw unless the temperature moves above 32 degrees, the
economy won't thaw and show signs of life unless P/E ratios drop to, and
dividend yields rise to, levels seen at major market tops. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
includes a detailed analysis of four valuation metrics, along with short-term
target ranges for stocks and the ultimate market bottom. Based on simple math
and common sense, the July lows are certainly in danger. But it doesn't stop
there.’
DOES HISTORY REPEAT, RHYME OR JUST HAVE COINCIDENCES? Lounsbury: ‘… Has anything of economic utility resulted? I have
not found it. And counter to the effect of the dot.com collapse, the credit
bubble collapse may not have stripped out some of the speculative income excesses.
Wall Street bonuses are back to pre-crisis levels and there has been no
"claw-back" of ill-gotten gains from the pirates who seized the
economic ship. In fact, the pirates are still in command of the ship and are
still under full sail. Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum! From my first Treasury report:
… the problem was that our systems,
especially in finance and health care, are too heavily focused on pay for
transactions rather than pay for outcomes. I didn’t have the presence of mind
to bring instant gratification into the discussion, but that would have
certainly made my thought process clearer.
I don't think this created any waves,
but I will continue to wail in the wilderness about how compensation formulas
contribute to and compound the structural problems in our financial system. So,
back to the earnings chart that started this discussion. In view of what has
been discussed here I believe we will find that history, in this instance, will
at least rhyme, if not repeat exactly. Structural economic problems are
sufficiently similar for the two eras that I expect we will see some form of
recurrence of events 5 and 6 [Depression] …’
DISMANTLING BULLISH ARGUMENTS …
Bull Market Argument #1 - Stocks are Cheap Even though the
economy is in the worst shape since the Great Depression, economists at large
believe that stocks (NYSEArca: IVV - News)
are cheap … We've previously analyzed the folly of relying on projected
earnings forecasts and therefore, will only pose two more facts as food for
thought before moving onto the next argument. Even if earnings are
positive the market can decline, as we've seen with the 9% and 17% declines in
January and May. Most of the earnings growth has been fueled by cost-cutting,
not organic growth. What does that tell us about the sustainability of growth?
Bull Market Argument #2 - Cash on the Sidelines Cash on the
sideline is viewed as bullish because, theoretically, it can be used to buy
stocks and drive up prices. Some distinguish between corporate cash and retail
cash on the sidelines. Many forget that for every dollar in cash, there is a
debt that has to be repaid. According to the Federal Reserve, nonfinancial
firms' debt totals $7.2 trillion, the highest level ever. As far as retail
investors go, the current debt-income ratio is at 126%. The pre-bubble average
was around 70%. To get back to the pre-bubble norm, about $6 trillion worth of
debt would have to be eliminated. Retail money in money market funds is
currently around the same level as it was in 2006/2007. Is that bullish?
Debunking the Bond Myth No doubt there's been a migration from
investment dollars out of stocks and into bonds and gold… Bonds - especially
corporate high yield bonds - could soon assume the role real estate had in
2006. Many thought that real estate (NYSEArca: IYR
- News)
will always go up. As it turns out, real estate prices can move in both
directions, as can bond prices.
A Closer Look at Gold What about gold? … The previous cash
level low was recorded in August of 2007. We know what happened then. Rather
than focusing on the sideline cash, perhaps we should focus on the trillions of
dollars still in the market. More selling means lower prices.
'Stocks are Cheap' vs. Realistic Valuations Using projected
earnings to determine the markets real value is like counting chickens that
have yet to hatch. Things change, and as studies have shown, analysts and
economist are usually the last to discern that change. Market forecasting based
on solid facts is tricky enough, but basing forecasts on thin assumptions
usually translates into financial suicide… Stock market tops when P/E ratios
are high, dividend yields are low and mutual fund cash reserves are low. Over
the past year, we have seen P/E ratios at an all-time high, dividend yields
close to their 1999 low, and mutual fund cash levels at an all-time low. In addition,
we have also seen investor optimism soar to levels reminiscent of 2000 and
2007…
Drudgereport:
NEW LOW
FOR O: GALLUP DAILY SHOWS OBAMA 41% APPROVE, 52% DIS...
'Allahu
Akbar!' Iran test fires new missile...
'Al-Qaida
prepares for Israel-Iran war'...
US
Assures Israel Nuclear Iran Isn't Imminent...
Israel
tells UN it will stop new Gaza aid flotilla...
Lebanon
refuses to bow to warning...
CHICAGOLAND:
ShoreBank Closed by FDIC...
...strong
ties to Obama administration
USA
DEBT: $13,310,379,000,000.00
$44,000 PER CITIZEN...
NEW
JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE TO 500,000...
Highest
level in 9 months...
CBO:
DEFICIT 9.1% OF GDP... DEVELOPING...
Homeowners
Expect Home Values to Fall More...
Celente:
Stock Market Crash Before End of 2010 Gerald Celente believes that the stock market will crash before
the end of 2010 , gold will soar.
Fed
Official Admits the Fed Starts Boom/Bust Cycles There are all kinds of
things awry with this article…
Bulls Scatter ... Again ‘At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we wanted to once again
highlight the lack of conviction among investors and advisors in the current
market environment. Following the July rally, bullish sentiment based on the Investors
Intelligence weekly survey jumped to its highest level since May. Then
last week, the S&P 500 dropped more than 3% and the bulls scattered. In
this week's survey, bullish sentiment declined 12% for its largest weekly
decline since the flash crash…’
Know Your Indicators: Hindenburg Omen ‘…Below we outline the five criteria (taken from Zero Hedge) that need to be satisfied in order
for the indicator to be triggered. They are:
Another Round of POMO: Dave's Daily ‘…Thursday we'll get another round of Uncle Sugar's
special blend via more POMO (Permanent Open Market Operations). This private
label brew will go directly to the Primary Dealers (dba: Da Boyz) who will use
it to trade as before…’
More Fuel For a Bigger Decline , On Tuesday
August 17, 2010, 4:18 pm EDT A
French proverb states that a fault denied is committed twice. Denial, as
blissful as it is for the time being, does not serve as protection against the
inevitable.A perfect example of denial is the May 6 flash crash. Neither Wall
Street, the financial media, nor investors wanted to see the danger of such a
meltdown beforehand. After it happened, they were in denial about the cause.
Denial is Bliss
The
simple truth is that the market was ripe for a major correction. A few weeks
before the flash crash, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted the extremely
low CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio and warned: 'It seems that only a minority of
equity positions are equipped with a put safety net. Once prices do fall and
investors do get afraid of incurring losses, the only option is to sell.
Selling, results in more selling. This negative feedback loop usually results
in rapidly falling prices.' As it turns out, there was no clumsy-fingered trader
at fault for the decline that reduced the Dow (DJI: ^DJI) by more than 1,000
points in one day. If it had been a simple error, stocks wouldn't have fallen
to new lows after the flash crash. If it had been a simple error, the S&P
(SNP: ^GSPC) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) wouldn't still be trading below the
flash crash close.
The Reality of Denial
But,
that's the power of denial. Since the April 26 highs, the S&P has been
moving from lower highs to lower lows. On July 1, the S&P had arrived at
1,011. The ensuing rally lifted the markets by nearly 10%, but failed to push
the S&P and Nasdaq above the July 21 highs. The July 21 highs failed to
move above the May 12 highs. The May 12 highs were significantly short of the
April 26 highs. Despite the obvious downtrend, investors get as excited about
dead end bounces as ever. This is not a bullish omen. In fact, according to the
ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter's technical analysis, the steepest leg of the
decline is still ahead. Before we look at more technical details, let's browse
through some fundamental factors that reflect the current state of denial:
Don't Worry About Bank Failures
111
banks were added to the FDIC's failed bank list thus far in 2010. At the same
time last year, only 76 banks had been shut down. According to an FDIC press
release, Metro Bank of Dade County had total assets of $442.3 million and total
deposits of $391.3 million. Assets outweigh liabilities by $51 million. That's
good, but apparently not accurate. According to the FDIC's press release, closing
Metro Bank will cost the FDIC $67.6 million. Why? Because an accounting trick
allows banks to artificially inflate their assets. The accounting trick allowed
this small bank to overstate its assets by about 25%. Other banks on the FDIC
list overstated their assets by more than 50%. Imagine the size of the problem,
considering that the four biggest banks (NYSEArca: KBE
- News)
of the country have about $7.5 trillion in combined assets. We should also
point out that none of those losses technically affect earnings, at least not
yet (for a detailed analysis refer to the June issue of the ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter).
Don't Worry About Falling Real Estate
The
National Association of Home Builders reported that its monthly reading of
builder's sentiment about the housing market sank to 14, the lowest level since
March 2009. Unlike other economic indicators, this index is taken from builders
that have their finger on the pulse of Main Street and is forward looking.
Despite the rally in equities (NYSEArca: VTI
- News)
and real estate (NYSEArca: IYR - News),
homebuilders (NYSEArca: XHB - News)
never really saw light at the end of the tunnel.
Don't Worry About Foreclosures
According
to RealtyTrac, more than 1 million American households are likely to lose their
homes to foreclosure this year. This is about 10 times as high as during an
average year. 25% of the U.S. household sector has a sub-600 FICO score. Yet,
Fannie Mae is offering financing to first-time buyers who only have a $1,000
down-payment. Nearly $150 billion have been spent to keep the doors of Fannie,
Freddie and company open. Does it make sense to artificially extend the
life of a patient destined to die? In the case of Fannie, politicians seem to
think that lending more money and ultimately creating more toxic assets will
solve the problems. Even a third grader understands the irony of that concept.
Denial is alive and well.
Don't Worry About Bankrupt States
States
are in trouble. The bigger the state, the bigger the trouble it seems.
California has a $1.8 trillion economy. If CA was a country, its economy would
be the seventh biggest in the world, bigger than Russia. But, CA has no money.
CNN reports that as many as 200,000 state workers in CA could see their pay
scale slashed to minimum wage, if orders from the governor's office are
followed. You don't need to be one of the 200,000 to know that is bad. To go
from state salary to minimum wage is a huge drop.
Don't Worry About Falling Prices
Look
around and you see a general downtrend develop: U.S. stocks (NYSEArca: IWB
- News),
international stocks (NYSEArca: EFA - News)
and emerging market stocks (NYSEArca: EEM
- News).
The same applies to commodities (NYSEArca: DBC
- News),
real estate prices (NYSEArca: RWR - News)
and consumer goods. The above-mentioned 'don't worries' all contribute to the
deflationary spiral (see image below for a visual). Unemployment remains high
because businesses have no pricing power. This leads to lower income, default
foreclosures, and ultimately even higher unemployment. Even Bernanke knows,
there is no easy fix to a deflationary cycle. Once engrained, it feeds on
itself. [chart]
Don't Worry About Death Crosses
A death cross is one of the most powerful technical indicators. It occurs when the shorter simple moving average (SMA) crosses below the longer SMA. Over the last few weeks we saw literally dozens of such death crosses. Most notable was the S&P, Dow Jones and Nasdaq experiencing not only a death cross created by the 50 and 200-day SMA, but also courtesy of the 10 and 40-week SMA. Despite the rally from the July lows, the sell signal triggered by the various death crosses remained active. The fact that the Dow Jones was the only major index to rally above the June 21 highs provides an additional bearish non-confirmation. Over the past ten years, the buy/sell action triggered by the SMA crosses has a success rate of 75% - 100%. Winning trades outperformed losing trades by a ratio of at least 3:1. In investing, those are not the kind of odds you want to bet against. In other words, it's time to face reality and abandon denial. Leading up to the April highs, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted a pinnacle of denial which was reflected by investors' outright enthusiasm about stocks. At a time when approximately 8 of 10 investment advisors and newsletter writers were bullish on stocks, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted: 'The message conveyed by the composite bullishness is unmistakably bearish. The pieces are in place for a major decline.' Since April 26, the major indexes dropped as much as 17%. Despite the recent rally, this seems to have been only the first installment of a significant decline. This decline is now in progress. In fact, the August issue of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter explains the one chart-pattern that explains why the next leg down will be strong and powerful. A British Historian noted decades ago that a wise person does at once what a fool does at last. Both do the same thing; only at different times. Will you get out of the markets way in time, or too late?
Here’s a new piece of the dismally murky puzzle which belies
a previous raison d’etre for rally: Greek
Bonds Slump As Austerity Backfires, Country Enters “Death Spiral”, And The
Violent End Game Approaches . Previously, Walmart same store sales were actually down (overseas
results were up), and, think about it. Isn’t Walmart, as essentially an
american based sales agent of china products a ‘contrarian indicator’ for the
the u.s.; that is , hasn’t Walmart’s rise coincided with american main street’s
demise. Similarly, fraudulent wall street high frequency churn and earn
programmed trade scams among many other
frauds as yet unprosecuted has heralded the death knell for american
business and the economy, generally. Old news at best and, that ‘not bad as expected, better than expected dog
don’t hunt no more’! ‘YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]:
… Retailers were also strong. As a group retailers climbed 1.8%. Discount
retail giant and Dow component Wal-Mart (WMT 51.02, +0.61) was
a solid performer on the back of in-line earnings and an improved
forecast. Home improvement retailer and
fellow Dow component Home Depot (HD 28.31, +0.93) had
a more positive influence over retailers. It posted better-than-expected
earnings for the latest quarter, but issued a rather mixed forecast. A
smaller-than-expected increase in housing starts during July didn't do anything
to derail the stock this session. Housing starts for July increased 1.7%
month-over-month to an annualized rate of 546,000 units, which is less than the
rate of 555,000 units that had been widely anticipated. Building permits for
July fell 3.1% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 565,000, which is
below the rate of 573,000 that had been expected…’ But, just a push of the computer programmed trade button and off we go,
reality / valuation / economics be damned. In real security analysis (very
simplified / summarized), as opposed to the continued frauds on wall street,
one must begin with the largest and most significant aggregate (a simple word
picture / analogy: ‘rising tide lifts all boats’). If you get this right, the
probabilities in your favor are substantially enhanced. From there, you want
leading industries, and leading companies within said leading industries
(again, larger aggregates then picks, to enhance probabilities, not guarantees,
in your favor). Your time frame, 1-3-5 yrs tops for projections, (including
income statement/EPS, balance sheet, and applying an appropriate P/E – a
detailed, multi-faceted approach beyond what could be described in this
summary); and, that’s all they are, projections. Beyond that time frame, your
guess. On fraudulent wall street, every day, though already discounted in large
part (6-8 mos, approx.), the market spins, churns, and with lightning fast
computerized high-frequency trade programs commissions in huge volumes like no
other time in financial history when real valuation meant something, with no
net economic value added, but very lucrative to the frauds on wall street,
which ultimately is a net detriment to the economy / the nation /and other
industries as we’ve seen and as described elsewhere on this site and in these
posts http://albertpeia.com
. Preposterously, they even sometimes refer to seasonal factors as if hearing
them for the first time and ‘explaining’ an up move (almost invariably already
discounted). Today, they shrugged off the deepening economic reality despite the
election year frothing / manipulations. This
is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression.
The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market.
This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes
with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and
sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato
scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise,
will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are
criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. ].
Are You Ready
For How Bad It Will Get? Graham Summers
| ‘There are numerous components in the latest GDP number that are extremely
suspect. The vast majority of investors
are going to be taken to the cleaners. I realize this view is far from the consensus. Even
those who are in the bear camp aver that the Stimulus did in fact bring us out
of recession at least temporarily.
However,
I would strongly contend that the recovery was in fact non-existent for the
following reasons:
1. The Government data used to validate
the recovery (GPD, unemployment, etc) is clearly massaged if not bordering on
outright propaganda
2. We are in fact in a depression and
the “recovery” was simply a bounce in economic activity taking place within the
context of a larger economy contraction
Regarding #1, every Government data
point used in promoting the “recovery” had some degree of fudging in it. Let’s
consider GDP for instance.
There are numerous devious tactics used
to overstate GDP growth, however, the most obvious gimmick the BLS uses is
overstating GPD growth in the present and then revising it lower in the
subsequent quarters.’
Kaufman on High Frequency Trading ‘Sen. Ted Kaufman (D., Del.) has been banging the drum on the need for
regulatory changes to high frequency trading for a while. His latest
thoughts on the matter take the form of a letter to SEC Chairwoman Mary Schapiro
urging — among other things — major high-frequency trading firms be
required to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Dow Jones Newswires’ Jacob Bunge reports:…’
Deceptive
Economic Statistics: While the economists lied the US economy died Paul Craig Roberts | The
bought-and-paid-for-economists got all the media forums for a decade. While
they lied, the US economy died.
Manufacturing,
housing sectors exhibit diverging fortunes (Washington Post) I’d say understatement but I truly don’t
know what this headline means juxtaposed with ‘fortunes’.
Google
Yanks “Kill The Web” Article That Warned Of Internet Takeover Having at
first appeared as normal, our earlier article about Google’s plan to kill the
web has been completely de-listed from Google News. This is completely
unprecedented and underscores how keen Google is to prevent people from finding
out that it is a CIA-NSA front that is preparing to completely end the Internet
as we know it with the Verizon net-neutrality killing deal.
Drudgereport:
NEW LOW
FOR O: GALLUP DAILY SHOWS OBAMA 41% APPROVE, 52% DIS...
NEW
JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE TO 500,000...
Highest
level in 9 months...
CBO:
DEFICIT 9.1% OF GDP... DEVELOPING...
Homeowners
Expect Home Values to Fall More...
Death of
the 'McMansion': Era of Huge Homes Is Over...
Bankruptcies
Reach Nearly 5-Year High...
REPORT:
China targets U.S. troops with arms buildup...
Military
power growing...
Pentagon
warning...
Risky
game on the high seas...
How
long can America fend off the dragon?
'Without
a revolution, Americans are history'...
From Good to Mediocre ‘Through last Friday, 2,127 US companies had reported quarterly
numbers this earnings season. What started out as a strong earnings season is
going out with a whimper (earnings season ends tomorrow with Wal-Mart's report)…’
High Probability for Lower Market Prices Ahead ‘…Economic numbers being what they are (very poor), we
should expect a downward revision of second quarter GDP to 1.5% from the
originally disappointing number of 2.4%. As more data is being released it is
apparent that we are witnessing even further deterioration here in the third
quarter…We may have reached a tipping point where many are tired of others
being the benefactors of taxpayer money …’
Gold Providing Safety During Market Downturn ‘ … The death cross occurs when the 50
day moving average crosses the 200 day moving average on the downside. These
patterns, when combined with other technical indicators can predict major
market downturns…THE ODDS OF A LONG TERM DOWNTREND ARE
BECOMING HIGHLY PROBABLE. THESE SIGNALS COULD POSSIBLY INDICATE THE START OF A
TWELVE TO EIGHTEEN MONTH DOWN CYCLE. Gold, on the other hand, has shown
great relative strength despite the general markets correcting and negative
sentiment about the economy from Washington…’
Will
Quantitative Easing By The Federal Reserve Unleash Economic Hell? The Economic Collapse | Most
of the folks populating Congress are so incompetent that they should not even
be hired to mop the floors of a Dairy Queen.
China surpasses Japan as world's No. 2 economy
(Washington Post) [ As
if we didn’t see that coming! ]
HOW TO BEAR MARKET PROOF YOUR PORFOLIO , On Friday
August 13, 2010, ‘… The 22 trading days following the April 26
market highs erased eight months worth of gains. Bear markets move much quicker
than bull markets.
Rule #1: Better too Early than too Late
When preparing for a bear market (we'll discuss in a
moment why we have been preparing for a bear market), it is prudent to start
early. Anyone who sold their long positions as early as September last year
would be in a better position than the buy-and hold crowd that is still
clinging to their holdings.
Rule #2: Don't Trust Wall Street and the Media
By now, even the mainstream media is sensing that
something might not be quite right with the market's performance. However,
there is still hope that the second half of the year will get a lift from
positive earning results. Before you bet your money on that line of reasoning,
consider the picture the media painted days within the April 2010 market top.
April 19, 2010 'America is back - The remarkable tale of
an economic turnaround' – Newsweek
'Recovery tilting to V-shape as profits prompts growth revision' - Bloomberg
April 25, 2010: 'U.S. stocks cheapest since 1990 on
analyst estimates' – Bloomberg
'Technical Analysts see room to roll' - Wall Street Journal
April 27, 2010 'Greece contagion fears unfounded' -
Reuters
May 3, 2010: 'Manufacturing in U.S. grows at fastest pace
since 2004 as recovery gains traction' - Bloomberg
Over the past two and a half months, the S&P
(NYSEArca: SPY - News) and Dow (NYSEArca: DIA - News) have lost as much as 17%. A 20% loss is
considered the mark of a new bear market. In essence, we are only one bad day
away from the next bear. Of course, throughout the massive bear market rally
from the March 2009 lows, which the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
predicted via the March 2, 2009 Trend Change Alert, the newsletter maintained
that it was only a bear market trap which would fool a majority of investors.
On April 16 it stated that 'Most bulls have no clue why they are bullish except
for the fact that they feel the need to play the momentum game. Sounds like
2000 and 2007 all over again. The message conveyed by the composite bullishness
is unmistakably bearish.'
Rule #3: Don't Underestimate Cash
In a period of falling prices, cash or cash equivalents
like short term Treasuries (NYSEArca: SHY - News) maintain your purchasing power -
long-term Treasuries (NYSEArca: TLT - News) are interest rate sensitive and may move
faster than you think. When stocks fall and you are able to maintain your
purchasing power, you are able to buy stocks at a discount. In essence, cash
offers a positive return in periods of falling prices. Additionally, or
alternatively, investors may choose to buy short or leveraged short ETFs such
as the Short S&P 500 ProShares (NYSEArca: SH - News), UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares
(NYSEArca: TWM - News) UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares
(NYSEArca: SDS - News), Short Financial ProShares (NYSEArca: SEF -News), Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3x Shares
(NYSEArca: FAZ - News) and many more.
Rule #4: Don't Procrastinate
On May 14, the ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter predicted that the S&P (NYSEArca: IVV - News) will fall through the important 1,040
resistance level. Aside from a small cluster of resistances (one being round
number resistance), a break below 1,040 opened the door wide for significantly
lower prices. We mentioned above that we've been preparing for a reemerging
bear market even before the April highs. Why? Simply put, stocks are
overvalued. How can that be? One of the above headlines read that U.S. stocks
are cheapest since 1990, at least according to analyst projections. The key
word is projections. Analysts project operating earnings for the S&P to
clock in at $94.83 in 2011. This is higher than the 2007 peak of $91.47. That's
right, despite record high unemployment, a European (NYSEArca: VGK - News) debt crisis, a 17% U.S. market
correction, and all the other problems economists expect corporate profits will
exceed their 2007 all-time highs. Does that sound reasonable to you? Keep in
mind that projected earnings are just that - projected. They can and will
change. In fact, analysts have a reputation of following the trend. In April
2008, analysts predicted earnings of $113. After cutting its forecast to $53,
Goldman Sachs cut its earnings forecast to $40 in March 2009. As we know today,
stocks rallied, and actual 2009 earnings came in at $56.87. The list goes on,
but the simple message is that analysts tend to be overly optimistic before the
fall and overly pessimistic before a rally. Right now they are overly
optimistic. The conclusion is easy.
Rule #5: Know who to Trust
Even when basing the current P/E ratio on overly
optimistic estimates, it is still far away from the P/E ratios seen at historic
market bottoms. The same holds true for dividend yields. A look at various
valuation measures shows that the market is overvalued by much more than just
10 or 20%. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter provides a detailed analysis of four
valuation metrics with a near spotless track record of historic
accuracy…’
No Exit, Stage Left or Right
Peter shiff ‘… Those who fear a double dip
recession are justified in their concerns, but they are also missing the big
picture. The 2008 recession never ended. It was merely interrupted by
trillions of dollars of stimulus that purchased GDP “growth” with borrowed
money. But as the bills come due, GDP should now contract … After decades
of abuse, it’s time for the Fed to take make a dramatic exit, because the US
economy can’t take it anymore.’
Capital Controls: The Final
Phase in the Great Looting of America Eric
Blair | Capital controls are the
next big event in the government-banking-oligarchy’s great looting of America.
Fed Leads America “To The Brink
Of Collapse” When even the New York Times and CNN are admitting that the
United States faces not only a double-dip recession but potentially a new great
depression, any alarm bells that have not been rung should now be sounding loudly.
Bailouts Went To Foreign Banks:
Congressional Report Confirms What We Already Knew A Congressional Oversight
Panel issued today highlights the fact that large portions of the Treasury’s
$700 billion bailout fund have gone straight into the coffers of foreign banks,
a fact that we knew months ago, but is only now being officially recognised.
Marc Faber: Protect Your
Property with High Voltage Fences, Barbed Wire, Booby Traps, Military Weapons
and Dobermans Investment guru and publisher of The Gloom, Boom and Doom
report, Marc Faber, regularly discusses investment strategies for protecting
and building wealth during times of economic distress.
Warnings:
Social Security at risk
(Washington Post) [ Not this again! It bears repeating, that was always
a bad idea and there was a plethora of reasons set forth on my site as to why
the social security privatization plan being shilled by moron war criminal
dumbya bush on behalf of the wall street frauds was an exceedingly bad idea.
Indeed, as defacto insolvent as america / the social security system is, the
nation and system would have been wiped out by privatization debacle. Talk
about too big to, but still failed. It was a bad idea then, and though
accusations may fly as to fear mongering, the reality of the venality attendant
to such a preposterous course on behalf of the wall street frauds requires
vigilance, scrutiny, and discourse concerning even the remote possibility of
such a fool-hearty betrayal of the citizenry of the nation. As such, as off the
mark as wobama has almost invariably been, he’s on the mark on this. ]ANALYSIS | Obama says GOP wants to privatize program, but
liberals see a different threat.
Foreclosures
surge 9 percent in July (Washington
Post) Those glass-half-full frauds on wall street along with the administration
will be cheering this unequivocally bad news with a dubious retort as ‘used
home sales will rise’ … riiiight! Anything you say …
Stocks
dip for third straight day (Washington
Post) [Investor fears? How ‘bout reality. Even an essentially non-business site
as Drudge has the pulse of this pervasive realization that ‘those dogs of happy
days are here again don’t hunt no more’. Check the heads: DRUDGEREPORT: America Is
'Bankrupt Mickey Mouse Economy'...
WIRE:
USA 'Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It'...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT HITS RECORD HIGH
JOBLESS
CLAIMS JUMP TO HIGHEST SINCE FEB...
California
can't pay bills -- may use IOUs for August payments...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
Homes
lost to foreclosure up 6% from last year...
Grim
Voter Mood Turns Grimmer...
and Economists
Herald New Great Depression The world is
currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression,
according to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others
now forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.
Peter Schiff: “We’re in the
Early Stages of a Depression” The Motley Fool | Four years and the worst
recession since the Great Depression later, Schiff stands alone again with a
bleaker diagnosis for the economy: an inflationary depression. My take: This is a global
depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up
move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has
been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with
great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell
into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam /
fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will
not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are
criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed
Pearlstein: The
FCC and the bandwidth wars (Washington
Post) [The internet has been among the few areas of growth and american
prominence, at least at this point in time. Clearly, as with the throng that
heralded in NAFTA, the self-interested voices of ie., google, verizon, etc.,
are similarly anathema to the greater good (as was NAFTA). Berners-Lee spoke
against such parochialism in no uncertain terms, much as did Ross Perot on
NAFTA and history has proven Perot correct as is so of the mind numbing
approaches of google, verizon, etc.] Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse (infowars.com) [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the
internet along with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously
opposed same and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and
verizon as mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc.,
operatives at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government
hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went public today with their “policy
framework” — better known as the pact to end the Internet as we know it.
AP Business
Highlights ‘Jobs picture dims as
unemployment claims rise WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy is looking bleaker
as new applications for jobless benefits rose last week to the highest level in
almost six months. It's a sign that hiring remains weak and employers may be
going back to cutting their staffs. Analysts say the increase suggests
companies won't be adding enough workers in August to lower the 9.5 percent
unemployment rate. First-time claims for jobless benefits edged up by 2,000 to
a seasonally adjusted 484,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. That's the
highest total since February. Analysts had expected claims to fall…’
Bearish Sentiment Falls to 14-Week Low [Talk about contrarian indicators!] AAII – ‘Bullish sentiment rose
9.4 percentage points to 39.8% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Despite the
size of the increase, the proportion of individual investors expecting stock
prices to rise over the next six months is only at a two-week high. The
historical average is 39%. Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices
will stay essentially flat over the next six months, fell 1.3 percentage points
to 30.1%. The historical average is 31%. Bearish sentiment, expectations that
stock prices will fall, dropped 8.1 percentage points to 30.1%. This is a
14-week low. The historical average is 30%. The survey period, Thursday through
Wednesday, needs to be taken into consideration when looking at these results.
Stock prices were essentially flat through most of this week's survey period
(with the obvious exception of yesterday), giving some investors hope that a
short-term bottom had been established. Though there were big changes in
bullish and bearish sentiment, both optimism and pessimism are close to their
historical averages. As a result, I would argue that individual investors'
confidence in the market remains fragile…’
U.S.
trade deficit startles markets (Washington Post) [ Unexpectedly? I don’t
think so! And, I have my site, other references / links and posts to prove it;
and, what’s more, I’m not alone. After all, what are NAFTAs for anyway.
However, I also must candidly admit I don’t frequent the mainstream blather /
propaganda that includes the ‘money-honeys’ (when the messenger’s more
important than the message, problems and distortions are bound to follow) and
their ilk, etc.. NBR’s
about it and even they have their pressures (I don’t consider the Washington
Post mainstream in the pejorative sense of the word, with a rich journalistic
history to back that up, all things considered) ]. Unexpectedly bad news from
three continents reinforces fears that global recovery is faltering.
Obama signs $26 billion jobs
bill (WP) [I feel compelled to
comment here that even using capital hill math one would be hard-pressed to
justify $26 billion taxpayer / treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save
300,000 state / local government jobs! After all, the nation is defacto
bankrupt! I think the former Soviet Union would have done the same.]
Fed action signals new activism (Washington
Post) [ Riiiiight! The activist fed! That’s all we need. As if we needed more
of what brought us to this point! Certainly the fed’s role in the continuing
and current financial crisis / debacle cannot be ignored or disputed. Nothing
like a hegelian methodology to create
the very problems for which they are called upon to offer solutions, increasing
their sense of importance, and concentrating power thereby. (Think about it. It
is really rather quite absurd that each meeting time the financial markets hold
their bated breath for these incompetent boobs). Then there’s the cover-up with
an opportunity for enrichment of some, usually the tight-lipped yes-men then ever
after and forever bonded in what becomes tantamount to an almost fraternal link
by ‘virtue’ of the crime thereby. No, I’m not saying their initial missteps
were necessarily badly intended, but the manipulations thereafter to obfuscate
their incompetence (senile greenspun, no-recession-helicopter-ben, etc.) comes
at a great price and is nothing less than tantamount to or just outright crime.
I’d abolish the fed without hesitation or compunction. After all, at this point
of decline and defacto bankruptcy of the nation you certainly can’t point to
success nor argue their indispensability. Then there’s also the missing
trillions, over-printing of fiat currency, and all that sub rosa activity with
the worthless fraudulent toxic paper which I believe is being supplanted with
ultimately hard currency to the great benefit of the frauds and great detriment
to the nation.]
ACCORDING TO TECHNICAL INDICATORS, MELTDOWN IS
POSSIBLE A SOLID TRACK
RECORD An analysis of the SMA crossover
buy/sell signals triggered for the S&P over the past 10 days shows that six
of the eight signals (75%) were correct. ..LAGGING BUT
ACCURATE Many dismiss
the 200-day or other SMAs as lagging indicators. Although an indicator may be
lagging it doesn't mean it's incorrect or should be dismissed… Even though a
lagging indicator, the rain does confirm that a storm is coming. A PRO-ACTIVE
APPROACH You'd expect Wall Street and the financial
media to be the financial weather man and warn you of upcoming storms.
Unfortunately, that is not so. Leading up to the April 2010 recovery highs,
Wall Street and the media proclaimed the skies are clear, 'sunny throughout the
year' was their weather forecast. Only after investors got drenched, did Wall
Street recommend pulling out the umbrella. Sure enough, as soon as the
umbrellas came out, stocks switched into rally mode and the sky cleared up.
Unlike Wall Street, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned of the brewing
storm while it was still sunny. On April 16, the newsletter warned that
'historically, there has rarely been a more pronounced sell signal ... When
consumers spend, they do so with credit cards. Visa and Master Card both got
hit with a death cross. It's just a matter of time until the discretionary
sector follows. WAIT, THERE IS MORE …High copper
prices are reflective of high demand and a humming economy. Lower copper prices
signal trouble ahead. On June 22, an ominous death cross visited copper's
chart. PUTTING THE ODDS IN YOUR FAVOR Investing is
a game of probabilities. While you always want to have the odds in your favor,
you never want to bet against the odds. Right now, the odds are piling up on
the bearish side of the ledger. Even though Wall Street is saying that the sky
has cleared up, 'meteorologists' with a better track record are warning of the
storm ahead. In fact, there is one rare chart formation that strongly suggests
the onset of a 2008-like decline, a development that's certainly supported by
the number of death crosses spanning a variety of markets. The August issue of
the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter includes a detailed short, mid and
long-term forecast, along with the one chart that tells the market's story and
true bearish potential.
Californians’ income falls for
first time since WWII Sacramento Bee | The personal incomes of
Golden State workers fell by that amount in 2009 compared with the previous
year.
Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the internet along
with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously opposed same
and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and verizon as
mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc., operatives
at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went
public today with their “policy framework” — better known as the pact to end
the Internet as we know it.
DRUDGEREPORT:
America Is
'Bankrupt Mickey Mouse Economy'...
WIRE:
USA 'Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It'...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT HITS
RECORD HIGH
JOBLESS
CLAIMS JUMP TO HIGHEST SINCE FEB...
California
can't pay bills -- may use IOUs for August payments...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
Homes
lost to foreclosure up 6% from last year...
Grim
Voter Mood Turns Grimmer...
Claims
of Afghan civilian deaths spark protest...
Military
sees heavier fighting in fall...
PAPER:
10 reasons why Obama presidency is in meltdown...
GALLUP:
Even the Poor Are Abandoning Obama; Approval Under 50%...
Obama
abolishes White House position dedicated to transparency...
Michelle
Obama popularity falls...
UPDATE:
Suspected serial killer arrested in Atlanta...
Attempting
to flee to israel … to be with kindred spirits ...
MOB
RUSH FOR FED AID DRAWS RIOT POLICE
DOW drops
265...
Feds
rethink policies that encourage home ownership...
Obama: $3
Billion More in Aid for Unemployed...
US
posts widest trade gap in 20 months...
Q2 GDP Growth Could Be Revised To Just 1% After Trade Data...
PUMP:
FED TO BUY MORE DEBT...
DOWNGRADES
OUTLOOK...
US-backed
fighters in Iraq defect to al-Qaida... [Winning hearts and minds …
for Al Qaida … just one too many civilian deaths for no good reason at all ]
Republicans
Suggest Names for 'Second Stimulus' Bill...
'Where
do the bailouts end?' [I feel compelled to comment here that
even capital hill math would be hard-pressed to justify $26 billion taxpayer /
treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save 300,000 state / local
government jobs! After all, the nation is defacto bankrupt! ]
Gerald Celente On the Alex
Jones Show: Double Dip Depression Will Lead Us Into War The white shoe boys are
taking us into the worst depression in history.
Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the internet along
with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously opposed same
and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and verizon as
mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc., operatives
at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went
public today with their “policy framework” — better known as the pact to end
the Internet as we know it.
Economists
Herald New Great Depression The world is
currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression,
according to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others
now forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.
Riiiiight! That ‘no-longer looking’ dynamic that saves the day and the ue rate
at 9.5%. At this rate of progress, and according to their thinking and
manipulations, full employment at an unprecedented 0% unemployment is just
around the corner as everyone stops looking for the jobs no longer here, many
of which were sent overseas and which are not coming back owing to substantial
economic structural / financial shifts.
Jobs Report: Companies Slow to Hire ABC
News - Only about 8 percent of the 8.4 million jobs lost at the
peak of the recession have been recovered, leaving millions of Americans still
looking for work, according to an analysis by ABC News' Business Unit. Video: News Update: US
Unemployment Rate Holds at 9.5%, 71,000 Jobs Added in June SmarTrend News 71K more jobs not enough to dent unemployment rate The Associated Press
When perusing the headlines and the
following, I immediately thought ‘between Iraq and a hard place (Afghanistan
and america’s defacto bankruptcy)’:
Between a Rock and a Hard Place Jerry Slusiewicz ‘Everyone knows that being between a rock
and a hard place is not a good place to be. That is where the market is right
now. We continue to have terrible news in the housing sector. There is no
general economic recovery as of yet. Jobless claims continue to mount, while
net new jobs are not being created in a significant enough number to even
sustain the population growth (approximately 150,000 net new jobs per month
needed). By far the majority of economic reports for May, June, July, and now
August, have been worse than forecast. That includes home starts, home sales,
home-builder confidence, retail sales, auto sales, consumer confidence, durable
goods orders, manufacturing, jobs, etc. Yet the market rallies or barely goes
down on these bad reports. What gives? It seems that bad news is good news
right now…
Stepping Aside Because I Can Always
Buy Back In Leigh Drogen ‘I sold
out of everything this morning, for a few reasons…First, breakouts don’t always
work and momentum stocks have a habit of ending their trends abruptly.
Second, …I can buy back in this afternoon if I change my mind (not likely). I
see more risk to the downside here than I do to the upside. …Third, the jobs
number tomorrow scares me. No, it doesn’t matter what the number is, we all
know it’s going to be bad, what matters is how the market reacts, and I have
the feel it’s not going to be good. Fourth, many of my oscillators are
overbought here.Fifth, and finally, I don’t like the fact that this rally has
primarily taken place on the back of the most beaten down sectors. …It all just
doesn’t pass the smell test for me. I’ve been successful at this not because
I’m always right, but because I know when I’m wrong and I’m willing to change
course or step aside. Right now, I’ll step aside.’
Were Unemployment Claims Really So 'Unexpected'?
WE’RE UNDERESTIMATING THE BEARISH POTENTIAL , August 3, 2010
’… Will Anything Stop the Market? Something Did
… At the same time, the April numbers were lowered the second time by
an additional 24,000 units, while May sales were revised lower by 33,000 units.
To summarize, April and May sales were reduced by 57,000 units. Therefore, June
sales were 24% above May sales. By the way, May sales were the lowest on record…
Temporary
Firehouse Closures Begin In Philadelphia CBS 3 | The city
of Philadelphia has started temporarily closing fire stations in order to
balance its budget.
Warning
Signs Suggest Market Headed for Another Collapse … One can find no shortage of fundamental or
mechanical theories explaining what might form the basis of a future financial
collapse published at Zero Hedge, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Nouriel Roubini or
Karl Denninger. In fact, I buy into a lot of the evidence presented by these
sources, and believe that one gains a better grasp of financial reality
spending 10 minutes with Zero Hedge than spending 2 weeks listening to the
mainstream financial media. It is laughable to compare the vacant drivel coming
out of Dennis Kneale to even one single article published by Tyler Durden or
Ryan Iskander…
1. HEAD &
SHOULDERS ON THE S&P 500, DOW JONES, AND NASDAQ …
2. BULLISH FLAG ON
THE VIX? We can’t have a massive spike in volatility without a coinciding
collapse in the equity markets …
3.
THE DEATH-CROSS ON THE S&P SUGGESTS THE 2009 TO 2010 RALLY MIGHT BE OVER
…
4. THE VOLUMELESS
RALLY & MUTUAL FUND OUTFLOWS
…
5. 1,000 POINT FLASH
CRASHES
…
6. BOND MARKET
DISTRUSTFUL OF THE RALLY
…
7. MARKET LEADERSHIP
IS WEAKENING
[chart] … ‘
Stocks' Late Push: Some
Optimism, Some Pessimism [Late
push … as in a constipated bowel movement … Come on! Another one of those push
the computer programmed trade button and off we go, reality / valuation /
economics be damned. In real security analysis (very simplified / summarized),
as opposed to the continued frauds on wall street, one must begin with the
largest and most significant aggregate (a simple word picture / analogy: ‘rising
tide lifts all boats’). If you get this right, the probabilities in your favor
are substantially enhanced. From there, you want leading industries, and
leading companies within said leading industries (again, larger aggregates then
picks, to enhance probabilities, not guarantees, in your favor). Your time
frame, 1-3-5 yrs tops for projections, (including income statement/EPS, balance
sheet, and applying an appropriate P/E – a detailed, multi-faceted approach
beyond what could be described in this summary); and, that’s all they are,
projections. Beyond that time frame, your guess. On fraudulent wall street,
every day, though already discounted in large part (6-8 mos, approx.), the
market spins, churns, and with lightning fast computerized high-frequency trade
programs commissions in huge volumes like no other time in financial history
when real valuation meant something, with no net economic value added, but very
lucrative to the frauds on wall street, which ultimately is a net detriment to
the economy / the nation /and other industries as we’ve seen and as described
elsewhere on this site and in these posts http://albertpeia.com . Preposterously, they
even sometimes refer to seasonal factors as if hearing them for the first time
and ‘explaining’ an up move (almost invariably already discounted). Today, they
shrugged off the deepening economic reality despite the election year frothing
/ manipulations. This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market
in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in
a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national
decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the
wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and
disgorgement imposed. ].
Slowing economic rebound raises
unemployment fears (AP) [Wow! Talk about understatements!]
Marc Faber Questions if Dow
Could Hit 1,000 In the August edition of the ‘The Gloom, Boom
& Doom Report’ Marc Faber questions whether the Dow could hit 1,000 as predicted by Robert Prechter,
based on his interpretation of Elliot Waves, Fibonacci numbers and
socioeconomic trends. Prechter, who has written 13
books on finance (external link), believes that the
stock market is historically overvalued in terms of dividends and earnings,
because of a “great rise in positive social mood.” But the mood changed in 2000
and the “trend toward negative social mood will lead to an economic
contraction,” according to Prechter. “Small bear markets lead to recessions,
big bear markets lead to depressions. The current bear market will be the
biggest in nearly 300 years, so the depression will be correspondingly deep,”
Prechter said.
Wall
St falls after weak outlooks drag (Reuters) U.S. stocks sagged in volatile
trading on Thursday after weak outlooks from technology companies and downbeat
comments from a Federal Reserve official gave investors little reason to buy.
Fed says some districts report slowing economy (Reuters)
Flaws of the European Stress Test … 'Bank stress test' became the magic phrase. Nothing calms fear
like a stress test that's labeled as rigorous. The stress test raises a few
very obvious questions: 1) Will it work? 2) Why was it needed in addition to a
$1 trillion aid package? 3) Is the stress test just a gimmick to appease
investors? The stress test is conducted by the London-based Committee of
European Banking Supervisors (CEBS). Ironically, the test has ignored the majority
of banks' holdings of sovereign debt. Sovereign debt concerns by the so-called
PIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain) triggered the latest wave
of financial problems. Ignoring sovereign debt in the Euro stress test would be
like ignoring toxic real estate assets in the U.S. 10% Good - 90% Bad
According to a Morgan Stanley survey, European banks hold about 90% of their
Greek government bonds in their banking books and 10% in their trading books.
The bonds in the banking book are generally held until maturity, the bonds in
the trading book are traded more frequently. According to a document obtained
by Bloomberg, the stress test assumes a loss of 23.1% on Greek debt, 14% on
Portuguese bonds, 12.3% on Spanish debt, 4.7% on German debt, 10% on U.K. debt,
and 5.9% on French debt. However, the stress test only looks at the bonds held
in banks' trading books, which account for a mere 10% of Greek bond holdings.
Can that be called a stress test? Nouriel Roubini says that 'the assumptions
made about economic growth, about sovereign risk are not realistic enough.' The
fact that only seven banks failed the test with a combined shortfall of $4.5
billion confirms the lax nature of the test. … The U.S. Bank Stress Test - A Nice Façade A closer look
under the hood of the U.S. bank stress test, however, shows that there's not
much substance behind the facade either. It was determined that the 19 tested
U.S. banks need to increase their balance sheets by $75 billion to meet the
conditions of what's termed the 'worst case scenario.' To a large extent, the
$75 billion of additional capital was financially engineered. Banks didn't have
to actually raise $75 billion. They were able to change the label of some of
their assets on their balance sheets. The government supported this practice
via mandatory convertible preferred shares (detailed analysis in May 2009 issue
of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter) …’
Moody's:
Regional banks on review for downgrade (AP)
Consumer
confidence dims (Reuters)
Job worries drove July U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest since
February, with one in six people expecting lower income in the next six months,
underscoring the precarious state of econo...
Global
steelmakers paint gloomy picture (Reuters)
US
bank failures in 2010 surpass 100
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. bank failures this year have surpassed a bleak
milestone of 100 as regulators shut down banks in Georgia, Florida, South
Carolina, Kansas, Nevada and Minnesota. The six bank seizures announced Friday
bring to 102 the failures so far in 2010. The pace of bank closures this year
is well ahead of that of last year, which saw a total 140 bank shuttered amid
the recession and mounting loan defaults …
On the Disconnect Between the Market and the Economy Michael Shulman:
(No recession helicopter ben) Bernanke Admits Major Policy Failures; Stocks Soar Darryl Montgomery What's wrong with this picture?
In his bi-annual testimony before Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke
admitted that after more than a year and a half of zero interest rates and $3
trillion in federal deficit spending since 2008, the best case
scenario for the U.S. economy is slow growth and high unemployment. The S&P
500 is up 2.5% so far this morning on this 'good' news. Bernanke's congressional testimony included the
following statements (emphasis added by me):
"Most [FOMC] participants viewed uncertainty
about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the
majority saw [at the June Fed meeting] the risks to growth as weighted to
the downside."
"Financial conditions--though much improved
since the depth of the financial crisis--have become less supportive of
economic growth in recent months."
"Many banks continue to have a large volume
of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight.
With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank
loans outstanding have continued to contract."
"After two years of job losses, private payrolls
expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this
year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially.
In all likelihood, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the
nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009."…
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Did Google Block “Barry
Soetoro” Search Term? Screenshots obtained by a Prison Planet reader suggest
that Google may have moved to de-list “Barry Soetoro” as a popular search term
shortly after it rose to the top of the Google Trends charts after yesterday’s
effort by radio talk show host Alex Jones to focus attention on Barack Obama’s
real name.
Feb
26, 2009 ... Bolton, the NEOCON gift that keeps on giving the
Repuglycans zero ... The problem with McCain was this. As a veteran
and a POW he get's high marks. ..... to get some treatment at the closest mental
health facility. ...
thinkprogress.org/2009/02/26/bolton-nukes-chicago/ -
Cached
- Similar
Aug
4, 2009 ... Bolton, like all neocons, doesn't understand that
there is ..... Of course, we all know it was BUSH who caused the problem
in the first place, right? .... they view the world in the light of their own mental
disorder, ...
thinkprogress.org/2009/08/.../bolton-north-korea-journalists/ - Cached
- Similar
Show
more results from thinkprogress.org
Dec
21, 2009 ... Re: Breaking: Neocon John Bolton Names Dick
Cheney "Conservati ... republicanism/conservatism is a mental
illness that is killing America and ... Problem is one side will
shamelessly try and stack the deck in their favor ...
crooksandliars.com › Blogs
› Logan
Murphy's blog - Cached
- Similar
Apr
17, 2007 ... On March 25, John Bolton was interviewed by BBC
Newsnight's Jeremy Paxman (video here). ... I think the real problem
was in not relying more on Iraqis. .... BTW, a mental giant, you are
not. The best thing to happen to ...
www.democrats.com › Blogs
› Bob
Fertik's blog - Cached
Bolton and his neo-con
crazies aren't setting the agenda anymore, ... And I do not mean the mental
condition of Mr Bolton and his fellow neocons. ...
www.lobelog.com/bolton-suggests-nuclear-attack-on-iran/ - Cached
- Similar
May
26, 2009 ... It's a special kind of mental illness. ... Bolton
has been derided as "the neocon's neocon" who "laps up
the hosannas of fellow ...
atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/.../dont-hold-your-breath-ambassador-bolton.html - Cached
Dec
4, 2006 ... Clyburn: E-Vote 'Hacked'; Rawl: 'Systemic Software Problems'
.... Add 'The Fall of the NeoCons: Bye Bye Bolton' to
Del.icio · Add 'The ... The Army's Lack of Mental Health Treatment for
Returning Troops" NEXT STORY » ...
www.bradblog.com/?p=3873 - Cached
30
posts - 4 authors - Last post: 21 hours ago
"Religion
is science for the mental ill" - Myself ... John Bolton
is a Bush neo con,,, obviously broke and needing the money. ...
www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1163684/pg2
New
article on darkpolitricks: Neocon Bolton Renews Call for Israel to
Bomb Iran http: darkpoltweeter (Dark Politricks RT): New article on
darkpolitricks: ...
www.wwnewsflash.com/bolton
· [PDF]
File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat - Quick
View
a sweeping diagnosis, it's clear that mental health has been a problem
within ...... Neocon icon John Bolton, Bush's abrasive former
Ambassador to the UN, ...
www.sf911truth.org/neocons.pdf
On
Facebook: Israeli soldier posed with bound Arab (AP)
China
focuses on military might (Washington Post) [And the big difference here (between them
and defacto bankrupt america) is that ‘THEY CAN AFFORD IT’ and are not fighting
nation-bankrupting, anti-american-sentiment-creating wars all over the
place.] Nation is quickly modernizing
forces, extending influence deep into Pacific and Indian oceans.
Afghans
still see U.S. as bad guy (Washington Post ) [Riiiiight! Sounds like a plan …
winning hearts and minds throughout the world … great for exports also as such
‘won hearts and minds’ just love to buy american.] American, NATO forces retain
blame for civilian deaths despite spike from insurgent violence.
Preparing
for World War III, Targeting Iran Humanity is at a dangerous crossroads.
War preparations to attack Iran are in “an advanced state of readiness”. Hi
tech weapons systems including nuclear warheads are fully deployed.
Pentagon tells WikiLeaks: "Do right thing" (Reuters) [Great
advice … if only the endless war, military complex based pentagon could take
it!] The Pentagon demanded on Thursday that whistle-blower web site WikiLeaks
immediately hand over about 15,000 secret Afghan war records it had not yet
published and erase material it had alrea…
Oliver
Stone has apologized for his anti-Semitic rant, but is the damage already done.
What damage? To perceived reality as opposed to reality? When you look at
america’s pro-israel, self-destructive, contra-indicated policies, including
the hands off policy vis-à-vis fraudulent wall street, you see the truth to
what he says which is what so many astute individuals are already thinking /
realizing. How can people continue to ignore the truth, to their own detriment
Think about it. Do you really think he would risk the typical onslaught if the
same weren’t true? ‘Director Oliver
Stone has been forced to make a grovelling apology over an anti-Semitic
outburst. The double Academy Award winner claimed that the Russians suffered
more during the Second World War and that there was a Jewish 'domination of the
media'. Stone also said that Jews had '****ed up' U.S. foreign policy for years
and suggested the British supported Hitler ...’ The relentless attacks on Mel
Gibson are of the same caliber and purpose; suppression of truth!
WASHPOST
Ombudsman: Why Silence on Black Panther Story? (Washington Post) ‘Thursday's Post reported about a growing controversy
over the Justice
Department's decision to scale down a voter-intimidation case against members
of the New Black Panther Party. The story succinctly summarized the issues
but left many readers with a question: What took you so long? For months,
readers have contacted the ombudsman wondering why The Post hasn't been
covering the case. The calls increased recently after competitors such as the New
York Times and the Associated Press wrote stories. Fox News and right-wing
bloggers have been pumping the story. Liberal bloggers have countered, accusing
them of trying to manufacture a scandal. But The Post has been virtually
silent. The story has its origins on Election Day in 2008, when two members of
the New Black Panther Party stood in front of a Philadelphia polling place. YouTube
video of the men, now viewed nearly 1.5 million times, shows both wearing
paramilitary clothing. One carried a nightstick…’
Latino
KKK: You are too white to be American! ALIPAC | Tan Klan woman can scream racist
comments because the Obama administration and most of the major news networks
in America have her back.
Drudgereport:
NEW
LOW FOR O: USATODAYGALLUP HAS OBAMA APPROVE AT 41%...
America Is
'Bankrupt Mickey Mouse Economy'...
WIRE:
USA 'Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It'...
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT HITS
RECORD HIGH
JOBLESS
CLAIMS JUMP TO HIGHEST SINCE FEB...
California
can't pay bills -- may use IOUs for August payments...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
Homes
lost to foreclosure up 6% from last year...
Grim
Voter Mood Turns Grimmer...
Claims
of Afghan civilian deaths spark protest...
Military
sees heavier fighting in fall...
UPDATE:
Suspected serial killer arrested in Atlanta...
Attempting
to flee to israel … to be with kindred spirits ...
DEFICIT
ADDS $165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
MOB
RUSH FOR FED AID DRAWS RIOT POLICE
DOW drops
265...
Feds
rethink policies that encourage home ownership...
Obama: $3
Billion More in Aid for Unemployed...
US
posts widest trade gap in 20 months...
Q2 GDP Growth Could Be Revised To Just 1% After Trade Data...
PUMP:
FED TO BUY MORE DEBT...
DOWNGRADES
OUTLOOK...
US-backed
fighters in Iraq defect to al-Qaida... [Winning hearts and minds …
for Al Qaida … just one too many civilian deaths for no good reason at all ]
Republicans
Suggest Names for 'Second Stimulus' Bill...
'Where
do the bailouts end?' [I feel compelled to comment here that
even capital hill math would be hard-pressed to justify $26 billion taxpayer /
treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save 300,000 state / local
government jobs! After all, the nation is defacto bankrupt! ]
CASTRO
WARNS OF IMPENDING NUCLEAR HOLOCAUST
WELCOME
TO THE RECOVERY...
JULY
UNEMPLOYMENT -131,000 JOBS...
Revised: May/June -97,000 jobs than first reported...
Odd
mix of bad news...
CASTRO
WARNS OF IMPENDING NUCLEAR HOLOCAUST
Michelle
Obama 'modern-day Marie Antoinette'...
NYT:
'Leaves the taxpayers with a hefty bill'...
While
Obama preaches sacrifice, his family frolics in Spain...
Gazpacho,
turbot, veal and ratatouille with the king...
Lavish
Obama vacation in time of economic turmoil raises eyebrows...
BAKER:
'Leaves taxpayers with hefty bill'...
Hollywood
star-studded gala at first lady's luxury hotel...
MICHELLE
O'S $375,000 VACATION?!
Strolls Marbella after State Dept. 'racist' Spaniards gaffe...
White
House calling: Please will you make a coat for Michelle...
Boy
Scouts boo Obama...
GALLUP:
Blacks and Whites Continue to Differ Sharply on Obama...
JUDGE
KNOCKS DOWN MARRIAGE PROP IN CA
BLOW
TO O: MO SAYS NO
Voters
overwhelmingly rejected federal mandate to purchase health insurance...
Americans
swap passports; Desire to avoid tax leads some to renounce citizenship...
Ahmadinejad
survives blast near motorcade...
'Stupid
Zionists have hired mercenaries to assassinate me'...
FALTERING RECOVERY TRIPS DOLLAR...
GM,
FORD and CHRYSLER Sales All Lag Estimates...
Stimulus
Slammed: Republican Senators Release Report Alleging Waste...
The
100 worst stimulus projects...
SHOCK
VIDEO: DEM CONGRESSMAN BRAGS: 'FEDERAL GOVERNMENT CAN DO MOST ANYTHING IN THIS
COUNTRY'...
Deadliest Month Of Afghan War
Paper:
Will Washington's Failures Lead To Second American Revolution
Maxine
Waters faces trial over bank bailout funds...
HOT WATERS
Dems
Say Sorry, Charlie...
Democrats
Say Rangel Should Resign...
Obama:
Time For Rangel To End Career 'With Dignity'...
60,000 babies born to 'noncitizens' get U.S. birthright - in Texas
alone...
Dutch
become 1st NATO member to quit Afghanistan...
China
surpasses Japan as world's No. 2 economy
(Washington Post) As if
no one saw that coming.
Lots
of stimulus yet to be spent (Washington Post) [Wow! Sounds like Alec’s
looking for ‘work’ on wall street. I think his glass is not only
‘wall-street-half-full’, but has an extra concentration of fluoride, the
effects of which seem ‘reachingly obvious’. Time to come back to economic
reality, Alec. ] As Americans puzzle
over why the economic stimulus package enacted more than a year ago has failed
to restore vigorous job growth, one explanation has emerged from new reports: A
lot of the money is not yet out the door.
Warnings:
Social Security at risk
(Washington Post) [ Not this again! It bears repeating, that was always
a bad idea and there was a plethora of reasons set forth on my site as to why
the social security privatization plan being shilled by moron war criminal
dumbya bush on behalf of the wall street frauds was an exceedingly bad idea.
Indeed, as defacto insolvent as america / the social security system is, the
nation and system would have been wiped out by privatization debacle. Talk
about too big to, but still failed. It was a bad idea then, and though
accusations may fly as to fear mongering, the reality of the venality attendant
to such a preposterous course on behalf of the wall street frauds requires
vigilance, scrutiny, and discourse concerning even the remote possibility of
such a fool-hearty betrayal of the citizenry of the nation. As such, as off the
mark as wobama has almost invariably been, he’s on the mark on this. ]ANALYSIS | Obama says GOP wants to privatize program, but
liberals see a different threat.
Foreclosures
surge 9 percent in July (Washington
Post) Those glass-half-full frauds on wall street along with the administration
will be cheering this unequivocally bad news with a dubious retort as ‘used
home sales will rise’ … riiiight! Anything you say …
Stocks
dip for third straight day (Washington
Post) [Investor fears? How ‘bout reality. Even an essentially non-business site
as Drudge has the pulse of this pervasive realization that ‘those dogs of happy
days are here again don’t hunt no more’. Check the heads: DRUDGEREPORT: America Is 'Bankrupt Mickey Mouse Economy'...
WIRE: USA 'Bankrupt and We
Don't Even Know It'...
DEFICIT ADDS
$165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT HITS RECORD HIGH
JOBLESS CLAIMS JUMP TO
HIGHEST SINCE FEB...
California can't pay bills --
may use IOUs for August payments...
DEFICIT ADDS
$165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
Homes lost to foreclosure up
6% from last year...
Grim Voter Mood Turns
Grimmer... and Economists
Herald New Great Depression The world is
currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression,
according to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others
now forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.
Peter Schiff: “We’re in the
Early Stages of a Depression” The Motley Fool | Four years and the worst
recession since the Great Depression later, Schiff stands alone again with a
bleaker diagnosis for the economy: an inflationary depression. My take: This is a global
depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up
move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has
been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with
great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell
into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam /
fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will
not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are
criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed
Pearlstein: The
FCC and the bandwidth wars (Washington
Post) [The internet has been among the few areas of growth and american
prominence, at least at this point in time. Clearly, as with the throng that
heralded in NAFTA, the self-interested voices of ie., google, verizon, etc.,
are similarly anathema to the greater good (as was NAFTA). Berners-Lee spoke
against such parochialism in no uncertain terms, much as did Ross Perot on
NAFTA and history has proven Perot correct as is so of the mind numbing
approaches of google, verizon, etc.] Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse (infowars.com) [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the
internet along with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously
opposed same and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and
verizon as mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc.,
operatives at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government
hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went public today with their “policy
framework” — better known as the pact to end the Internet as we know it.
AP Business
Highlights ‘Jobs picture dims as
unemployment claims rise WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy is looking bleaker
as new applications for jobless benefits rose last week to the highest level in
almost six months. It's a sign that hiring remains weak and employers may be
going back to cutting their staffs. Analysts say the increase suggests
companies won't be adding enough workers in August to lower the 9.5 percent
unemployment rate. First-time claims for jobless benefits edged up by 2,000 to
a seasonally adjusted 484,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. That's the
highest total since February. Analysts had expected claims to fall…’
Bearish Sentiment Falls to 14-Week Low [Talk about contrarian indicators!] AAII – ‘Bullish sentiment rose
9.4 percentage points to 39.8% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Despite the
size of the increase, the proportion of individual investors expecting stock
prices to rise over the next six months is only at a two-week high. The
historical average is 39%. Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices
will stay essentially flat over the next six months, fell 1.3 percentage points
to 30.1%. The historical average is 31%. Bearish sentiment, expectations that
stock prices will fall, dropped 8.1 percentage points to 30.1%. This is a
14-week low. The historical average is 30%. The survey period, Thursday through
Wednesday, needs to be taken into consideration when looking at these results.
Stock prices were essentially flat through most of this week's survey period
(with the obvious exception of yesterday), giving some investors hope that a
short-term bottom had been established. Though there were big changes in
bullish and bearish sentiment, both optimism and pessimism are close to their
historical averages. As a result, I would argue that individual investors'
confidence in the market remains fragile…’
U.S.
trade deficit startles markets (Washington Post) [ Unexpectedly? I don’t think
so! And, I have my site, other references / links and posts to prove it; and,
what’s more, I’m not alone. After all, what are NAFTAs for anyway. However, I
also must candidly admit I don’t frequent the mainstream blather / propaganda
that includes the ‘money-honeys’ (when the messenger’s more important than the
message, problems and distortions are bound to follow) and their ilk, etc.. NBR’s about it and even they have their pressures (I
don’t consider the Washington Post mainstream in the pejorative sense of the
word, with a rich journalistic history to back that up, all things considered)
]. Unexpectedly bad news from three continents reinforces fears that global
recovery is faltering.
Obama signs $26 billion jobs
bill (WP) [I feel compelled to
comment here that even using capital hill math one would be hard-pressed to
justify $26 billion taxpayer / treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save
300,000 state / local government jobs! After all, the nation is defacto
bankrupt! I think the former Soviet Union would have done the same.]
Fed action signals new activism (Washington
Post) [ Riiiiight! The activist fed! That’s all we need. As if we needed more
of what brought us to this point! Certainly the fed’s role in the continuing
and current financial crisis / debacle cannot be ignored or disputed. Nothing
like a hegelian methodology to create
the very problems for which they are called upon to offer solutions, increasing
their sense of importance, and concentrating power thereby. (Think about it. It
is really rather quite absurd that each meeting time the financial markets hold
their bated breath for these incompetent boobs). Then there’s the cover-up with
an opportunity for enrichment of some, usually the tight-lipped yes-men then
ever after and forever bonded in what becomes tantamount to an almost fraternal
link by ‘virtue’ of the crime thereby. No, I’m not saying their initial
missteps were necessarily badly intended, but the manipulations thereafter to
obfuscate their incompetence (senile greenspun, no-recession-helicopter-ben,
etc.) comes at a great price and is nothing less than tantamount to or just
outright crime. I’d abolish the fed without hesitation or compunction. After
all, at this point of decline and defacto bankruptcy of the nation you
certainly can’t point to success nor argue their indispensability. Then there’s
also the missing trillions, over-printing of fiat currency, and all that sub
rosa activity with the worthless fraudulent toxic paper which I believe is
being supplanted with ultimately hard currency to the great benefit of the
frauds and great detriment to the nation.]
ACCORDING TO TECHNICAL INDICATORS, MELTDOWN IS
POSSIBLE A
SOLID TRACK RECORD An analysis
of the SMA crossover buy/sell signals triggered for the S&P over the past
10 days shows that six of the eight signals (75%) were correct. ..LAGGING
BUT ACCURATE Many dismiss
the 200-day or other SMAs as lagging indicators. Although an indicator may be
lagging it doesn't mean it's incorrect or should be dismissed… Even though a
lagging indicator, the rain does confirm that a storm is coming. A
PRO-ACTIVE APPROACH You'd expect Wall Street and the
financial media to be the financial weather man and warn you of upcoming
storms. Unfortunately, that is not so. Leading up to the April 2010 recovery
highs, Wall Street and the media proclaimed the skies are clear, 'sunny
throughout the year' was their weather forecast. Only after investors got
drenched, did Wall Street recommend pulling out the umbrella. Sure enough, as
soon as the umbrellas came out, stocks switched into rally mode and the sky
cleared up. Unlike Wall Street, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned of
the brewing storm while it was still sunny. On April 16, the newsletter warned
that 'historically, there has rarely been a more pronounced sell signal ...
When consumers spend, they do so with credit cards. Visa and Master Card both
got hit with a death cross. It's just a matter of time until the discretionary
sector follows. WAIT, THERE IS MORE …High copper
prices are reflective of high demand and a humming economy. Lower copper prices
signal trouble ahead. On June 22, an ominous death cross visited copper's
chart. PUTTING THE ODDS IN YOUR FAVOR Investing is
a game of probabilities. While you always want to have the odds in your favor,
you never want to bet against the odds. Right now, the odds are piling up on
the bearish side of the ledger. Even though Wall Street is saying that the sky
has cleared up, 'meteorologists' with a better track record are warning of the
storm ahead. In fact, there is one rare chart formation that strongly suggests
the onset of a 2008-like decline, a development that's certainly supported by
the number of death crosses spanning a variety of markets. The August issue of
the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter includes a detailed short, mid and
long-term forecast, along with the one chart that tells the market's story and
true bearish potential.
Californians’ income falls for
first time since WWII Sacramento
Bee | The personal incomes of
Golden State workers fell by that amount in 2009 compared with the previous
year.
Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the internet along
with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously opposed same
and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and verizon as
mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc., operatives
at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went
public today with their “policy framework” — better known as the pact to end
the Internet as we know it.
DRUDGEREPORT: America Is 'Bankrupt Mickey
Mouse Economy'...
WIRE: USA 'Bankrupt and We
Don't Even Know It'...
DEFICIT ADDS
$165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT HITS
RECORD HIGH
JOBLESS CLAIMS JUMP TO
HIGHEST SINCE FEB...
California can't pay bills --
may use IOUs for August payments...
DEFICIT ADDS
$165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
Homes lost to foreclosure up
6% from last year...
Grim Voter Mood Turns
Grimmer...
Claims of Afghan civilian
deaths spark protest...
Military sees heavier
fighting in fall...
PAPER: 10 reasons why Obama
presidency is in meltdown...
GALLUP: Even the Poor Are Abandoning Obama; Approval Under
50%...
Obama abolishes White House
position dedicated to transparency...
Michelle Obama popularity
falls...
UPDATE: Suspected serial
killer arrested in Atlanta...
Attempting to flee to israel
… to be with kindred spirits ...
MOB
RUSH FOR FED AID DRAWS RIOT POLICE
DOW drops 265...
Feds rethink policies that
encourage home ownership...
Obama: $3 Billion More in Aid for Unemployed...
US posts widest trade gap in
20 months...
Q2 GDP Growth Could
Be Revised To Just 1% After Trade Data...
PUMP: FED TO BUY MORE DEBT...
DOWNGRADES OUTLOOK...
US-backed fighters in Iraq
defect to al-Qaida... [Winning hearts and minds … for Al Qaida …
just one too many civilian deaths for no good reason at all ]
Republicans Suggest Names for
'Second Stimulus' Bill...
'Where do the bailouts end?' [I feel compelled to comment here that
even capital hill math would be hard-pressed to justify $26 billion taxpayer /
treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save 300,000 state / local government
jobs! After all, the nation is defacto bankrupt! ]
Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the internet along
with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously opposed same
and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and verizon as
mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc., operatives
at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went
public today with their “policy framework” — better known as the pact to end
the Internet as we know it.
Economists
Herald New Great Depression The world is
currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression, according
to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others now
forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.
Riiiiight! That ‘no-longer looking’ dynamic that saves the day and the ue rate
at 9.5%. At this rate of progress, and according to their thinking and
manipulations, full employment at an unprecedented 0% unemployment is just
around the corner as everyone stops looking for the jobs no longer here, many
of which were sent overseas and which are not coming back owing to substantial
economic structural / financial shifts.
Jobs Report: Companies Slow to Hire ABC
News - Only about 8 percent of the 8.4 million jobs lost at the
peak of the recession have been recovered, leaving millions of Americans still
looking for work, according to an analysis by ABC News' Business Unit. Video: News Update: US
Unemployment Rate Holds at 9.5%, 71,000 Jobs Added in June SmarTrend News 71K more jobs not enough to dent unemployment rate The Associated Press
When perusing the headlines and the
following, I immediately thought ‘between Iraq and a hard place (Afghanistan
and america’s defacto bankruptcy)’:
Between a Rock and a Hard Place Jerry Slusiewicz ‘Everyone knows that being between a rock
and a hard place is not a good place to be. That is where the market is right
now. We continue to have terrible news in the housing sector. There is no
general economic recovery as of yet. Jobless claims continue to mount, while
net new jobs are not being created in a significant enough number to even
sustain the population growth (approximately 150,000 net new jobs per month
needed). By far the majority of economic reports for May, June, July, and now
August, have been worse than forecast. That includes home starts, home sales,
home-builder confidence, retail sales, auto sales, consumer confidence, durable
goods orders, manufacturing, jobs, etc. Yet the market rallies or barely goes
down on these bad reports. What gives? It seems that bad news is good news
right now…
Stepping Aside Because I Can Always
Buy Back In Leigh Drogen ‘I sold
out of everything this morning, for a few reasons...’
Were Unemployment Claims Really So 'Unexpected'?
WE’RE UNDERESTIMATING THE BEARISH POTENTIAL , August 3, 2010
’… Will Anything Stop the Market? Something Did
… At the same time,
the April numbers were lowered the second time by an additional 24,000 units,
while May sales were revised lower by 33,000 units. To summarize, April and May
sales were reduced by 57,000 units. Therefore, June sales were 24% above May
sales. By the way, May sales were the lowest on record…
Temporary
Firehouse Closures Begin In Philadelphia CBS
3 | The
city of Philadelphia has started temporarily closing fire stations in order to
balance its budget.
Warning
Signs Suggest Market Headed for Another Collapse
Stocks' Late Push: Some
Optimism, Some Pessimism [Late
push … as in a constipated bowel movement … Come on! Another one of those push
the computer programmed trade button and off we go, reality / valuation /
economics be damned. In real security analysis (very simplified / summarized),
as opposed to the continued frauds on wall street, one must begin with the
largest and most significant aggregate (a simple word picture / analogy:
‘rising tide lifts all boats’). If you get this right, the probabilities in your
favor are substantially enhanced. From there, you want leading industries, and
leading companies within said leading industries (again, larger aggregates then
picks, to enhance probabilities, not guarantees, in your favor). Your time
frame, 1-3-5 yrs tops for projections, (including income statement/EPS, balance
sheet, and applying an appropriate P/E – a detailed, multi-faceted approach
beyond what could be described in this summary); and, that’s all they are,
projections. Beyond that time frame, your guess. On fraudulent wall street,
every day, though already discounted in large part (6-8 mos, approx.), the
market spins, churns, and with lightning fast computerized high-frequency trade
programs commissions in huge volumes like no other time in financial history
when real valuation meant something, with no net economic value added, but very
lucrative to the frauds on wall street, which ultimately is a net detriment to
the economy / the nation /and other industries as we’ve seen and as described
elsewhere on this site and in these posts http://albertpeia.com . Preposterously, they
even sometimes refer to seasonal factors as if hearing them for the first time
and ‘explaining’ an up move (almost invariably already discounted). Today, they
shrugged off the deepening economic reality despite the election year frothing
/ manipulations. This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market
in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in
a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national
decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the
wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and
disgorgement imposed. ].
Slowing economic rebound raises
unemployment fears (AP) [Wow! Talk about understatements!]
Marc Faber Questions if Dow
Could Hit 1,000 In the August edition of the ‘The Gloom, Boom
& Doom Report’ Marc Faber questions whether the Dow could hit 1,000 as predicted by Robert Prechter, based
on his interpretation of Elliot Waves, Fibonacci numbers and socioeconomic
trends. Prechter, who has written 13
books on finance (external link), believes
that the stock market is historically overvalued in terms of dividends and
earnings, because of a “great rise in positive social mood.” But the mood
changed in 2000 and the “trend toward negative social mood will lead to an
economic contraction,” according to Prechter. “Small bear markets lead to
recessions, big bear markets lead to depressions. The current bear market will
be the biggest in nearly 300 years, so the depression will be correspondingly
deep,” Prechter said.
Wall
St falls after weak outlooks drag (Reuters) U.S. stocks sagged in volatile
trading on Thursday after weak outlooks from technology companies and downbeat
comments from a Federal Reserve official gave investors little reason to buy.
Fed says some districts report slowing economy (Reuters)
Flaws of the European Stress Test … 'Bank stress test' became the magic phrase. Nothing calms fear
like a stress test that's labeled as rigorous. The stress test raises a few
very obvious questions: 1) Will it work? 2) Why was it needed in addition to a
$1 trillion aid package? 3) Is the stress test just a gimmick to appease
investors? The stress test is conducted by the London-based Committee of
European Banking Supervisors (CEBS). Ironically, the test has ignored the
majority of banks' holdings of sovereign debt. Sovereign debt concerns by the
so-called PIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain) triggered the
latest wave of financial problems. Ignoring sovereign debt in the Euro stress
test would be like ignoring toxic real estate assets in the U.S. 10%
Good - 90% Bad According to a Morgan Stanley survey, European banks hold about 90%
of their Greek government bonds in their banking books and 10% in their trading
books. The bonds in the banking book are generally held until maturity, the
bonds in the trading book are traded more frequently. According to a document
obtained by Bloomberg, the stress test assumes a loss of 23.1% on Greek debt,
14% on Portuguese bonds, 12.3% on Spanish debt, 4.7% on German debt, 10% on
U.K. debt, and 5.9% on French debt. However, the stress test only looks at the
bonds held in banks' trading books, which account for a mere 10% of Greek bond
holdings. Can that be called a stress test? Nouriel Roubini says that 'the
assumptions made about economic growth, about sovereign risk are not realistic
enough.' The fact that only seven banks failed the test with a combined
shortfall of $4.5 billion confirms the lax nature of the test. … The U.S. Bank Stress Test - A Nice Façade A closer look under the hood of
the U.S. bank stress test, however, shows that there's not much substance
behind the facade either. It was determined that the 19 tested U.S. banks need
to increase their balance sheets by $75 billion to meet the conditions of
what's termed the 'worst case scenario.' To a large extent, the $75 billion of
additional capital was financially engineered. Banks didn't have to actually
raise $75 billion. They were able to change the label of some of their assets
on their balance sheets. The government supported this practice via mandatory
convertible preferred shares (detailed analysis in May 2009 issue of the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter) …’
Moody's:
Regional banks on review for downgrade (AP)
Consumer
confidence dims (Reuters)
Job worries drove July U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest since
February, with one in six people expecting lower income in the next six months,
underscoring the precarious state of econo...
Global
steelmakers paint gloomy picture (Reuters)
US
bank failures in 2010 surpass 100
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. bank failures this year have surpassed a bleak
milestone of 100 as regulators shut down banks in Georgia, Florida, South
Carolina, Kansas, Nevada and Minnesota. The six bank seizures announced Friday
bring to 102 the failures so far in 2010. The pace of bank closures this year
is well ahead of that of last year, which saw a total 140 bank shuttered amid
the recession and mounting loan defaults …
On the Disconnect Between the Market and the Economy Michael Shulman:
(No recession helicopter ben) Bernanke Admits Major Policy Failures; Stocks Soar Darryl Montgomery What's wrong with this picture?
In his bi-annual testimony before Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke
admitted that after more than a year and a half of zero interest rates and $3
trillion in federal deficit spending since 2008, the best case
scenario for the U.S. economy is slow growth and high unemployment. The S&P
500 is up 2.5% so far this morning on this 'good' news. Bernanke's congressional testimony included the
following statements (emphasis added by me):
"Most [FOMC] participants viewed uncertainty
about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the
majority saw [at the June Fed meeting] the risks to growth as weighted to
the downside."
"Financial conditions--though much improved
since the depth of the financial crisis--have become less supportive of
economic growth in recent months."
"Many banks continue to have a large volume
of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight.
With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank
loans outstanding have continued to contract."
"After two years of job losses, private payrolls
expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this
year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially.
In all likelihood, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the
nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009."…
Pat Tillman’s Father To Army
Investigator: ‘F— You… And Yours’ There always was a dark
cinematic thread to the story of Pat Tillman: the football star imbued with
post-9/11 patriotism who was killed in a friendly-fire incident in the Afghan
mountains and the allegations of a massive bureaucratic cover-up involving the
highest levels of the U.S. Army in the wake of the tragedy.
Preparing
for World War III, Targeting Iran Humanity is at a dangerous crossroads.
War preparations to attack Iran are in “an advanced state of readiness”. Hi
tech weapons systems including nuclear warheads are fully deployed.
Pentagon tells WikiLeaks: "Do right thing" (Reuters) [Great
advice … if only the endless war, military complex based pentagon could take
it!] The Pentagon demanded on Thursday that whistle-blower web site WikiLeaks
immediately hand over about 15,000 secret Afghan war records it had not yet
published and erase material it had alrea…
WASHPOST
Ombudsman: Why Silence on Black Panther Story? (Washington Post) ‘Thursday's Post reported about a growing
controversy over the Justice
Department's decision to scale down a voter-intimidation case against members
of the New Black Panther Party. The story succinctly summarized the issues
but left many readers with a question: What took you so long? For months,
readers have contacted the ombudsman wondering why The Post hasn't been
covering the case. The calls increased recently after competitors such as the
New York Times and the Associated Press wrote stories. Fox News and right-wing
bloggers have been pumping the story. Liberal bloggers have countered, accusing
them of trying to manufacture a scandal. But The Post has been virtually
silent. The story has its origins on Election Day in 2008, when two members of
the New Black Panther Party stood in front of a Philadelphia polling place. YouTube
video of the men, now viewed nearly 1.5 million times, shows both wearing
paramilitary clothing. One carried a nightstick…’
Latino
KKK: You are too white to be American! ALIPAC | Tan
Klan woman can scream racist comments because the Obama administration and most
of the major news networks in America have her back.
Down in the Dumps Street: Dave's Daily Wall Street now Dump Street.
Options Action: Bearish Bet on the Market ‘During tumultuous times you want to protect your
portfolio but how should you do it? Brian Stutland has a strategy using the S&P
ETF He suggests selling
a call against a long position.
[$$] Prepping for a Data-Filled Friday [Writing covered calls is an interesting,
conservative financial strategy that certainly can enhance overall return, but
as well, limit upside potential / capital gains … which in this market is ‘no
problemo’ whatsoever, reality considered ]‘There were several folks out this
morning yelling to buy the dip (Jim Cramer was one of them), and traders who
followed that advice did pretty well. Rather than buying the dip, I used the
initial drop to escape some positions I thought were going to expire worthless,
then I used the bounce to lighten up more. Bears were able to get the SPDR back
under the $108.75 to $108.88 area, which I see as key right now. Another Friday
and I'm curious to see any impact from the weekly options. Will the big names
be stuck right around the strikes where they stand now? Unfortunately, the
bigger tech names are closer to their downward strikes than their higher
strikes, so that could pressure the market. One name that doesn't seem to care
is Baidu. It is right in between the $80 and $85 strike right now, so...’
U.S.
trade deficit startles markets (Washington Post) [ Unexpectedly? I don’t
think so! And, I have my site, other references / links and posts to prove it;
and, what’s more, I’m not alone. After all, what are NAFTAs for anyway.
However, I also must candidly admit I don’t frequent the mainstream blather /
propaganda that includes the ‘money-honeys’ (when the messenger’s more
important than the message, problems and distortions are bound to follow) and
their ilk, etc.. NBR’s
about it and even they have their pressures (I don’t consider the Washington
Post mainstream in the pejorative sense of the word, with a rich journalistic
history to back that up, all things considered) ]. Unexpectedly bad news from
three continents reinforces fears that global recovery is faltering.
Obama signs $26 billion jobs
bill (WP) [I feel compelled to
comment here that even using capital hill math one would be hard-pressed to
justify $26 billion taxpayer / treasury dollars they don’t really have, to save
300,000 state / local government jobs! After all, the nation is defacto
bankrupt! I think the former Soviet Union would have done the same.]
Fed action signals new activism (Washington
Post) [ Riiiiight! The activist fed! That’s all we need. As if we needed more
of what brought us to this point! Certainly the fed’s role in the continuing
and current financial crisis / debacle cannot be ignored or disputed. Nothing
like a hegelian methodology to create
the very problems for which they are called upon to offer solutions, increasing
their sense of importance, and concentrating power thereby. (Think about it. It
is really rather quite absurd that each meeting time the financial markets hold
their bated breath for these incompetent boobs). Then there’s the cover-up with
an opportunity for enrichment of some, usually the tight-lipped yes-men then
ever after and forever bonded in what becomes tantamount to an almost fraternal
link by ‘virtue’ of the crime thereby. No, I’m not saying their initial
missteps were necessarily badly intended, but the manipulations thereafter to
obfuscate their incompetence (senile greenspun, no-recession-helicopter-ben,
etc.) comes at a great price and is nothing less than tantamount to or just
outright crime. I’d abolish the fed without hesitation or compunction. After
all, at this point of decline and defacto bankruptcy of the nation you
certainly can’t point to success nor argue their indispensability. Then there’s
also the missing trillions, over-printing of fiat currency, and all that sub
rosa activity with the worthless fraudulent toxic paper which I believe is
being supplanted with ultimately hard currency to the great benefit of the
frauds and great detriment to the nation.]
Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the internet along
with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously opposed same
and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and verizon as
mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc., operatives
at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government hands! ]. So Google
and Verizon went public today with their “policy framework” — better known as
the pact to end the Internet as we know it.
Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the internet along
with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously opposed same
and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and verizon as
mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc., operatives
at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went
public today with their “policy framework” — better known as the pact to end
the Internet as we know it.
Riiiiight! That ‘no-longer looking’ dynamic that saves the day and the ue rate
at 9.5%. At this rate of progress, and according to their thinking and
manipulations, full employment at an unprecedented 0% unemployment is just
around the corner as everyone stops looking for the jobs no longer here, many
of which were sent overseas and which are not coming back owing to substantial
economic structural / financial shifts.
Jobs Report: Companies Slow to Hire ABC
News - Only about 8 percent of the 8.4 million jobs lost at the
peak of the recession have been recovered, leaving millions of Americans still
looking for work, according to an analysis by ABC News' Business Unit. Video: News Update: US
Unemployment Rate Holds at 9.5%, 71,000 Jobs Added in June SmarTrend News 71K more jobs not enough to dent unemployment rate The Associated Press
When perusing the headlines and the
following, I immediately thought ‘between Iraq and a hard place (Afghanistan
and america’s defacto bankruptcy)’:
Between a Rock and a Hard Place Jerry Slusiewicz ‘Everyone knows that being between a rock
and a hard place is not a good place to be. That is where the market is right
now. We continue to have terrible news in the housing sector. There is no
general economic recovery as of yet. Jobless claims continue to mount, while
net new jobs are not being created in a significant enough number to even
sustain the population growth (approximately 150,000 net new jobs per month
needed). By far the majority of economic reports for May, June, July, and now
August, have been worse than forecast. That includes home starts, home sales,
home-builder confidence, retail sales, auto sales, consumer confidence, durable
goods orders, manufacturing, jobs, etc. Yet the market rallies or barely goes
down on these bad reports. What gives? It seems that bad news is good news
right now…
Stepping Aside Because I Can Always
Buy Back In Leigh Drogen ‘I sold
out of everything this morning, for a few reasons…First, breakouts don’t always
work and momentum stocks have a habit of ending their trends abruptly.
Second, …I can buy back in this afternoon if I change my mind (not likely). I
see more risk to the downside here than I do to the upside. …Third, the jobs
number tomorrow scares me. No, it doesn’t matter what the number is, we all
know it’s going to be bad, what matters is how the market reacts, and I have
the feel it’s not going to be good. Fourth, many of my oscillators are
overbought here.Fifth, and finally, I don’t like the fact that this rally has primarily
taken place on the back of the most beaten down sectors. …It all just doesn’t
pass the smell test for me. I’ve been successful at this not because I’m always
right, but because I know when I’m wrong and I’m willing to change course or
step aside. Right now, I’ll step aside.’
Were Unemployment Claims Really So 'Unexpected'?
WE’RE UNDERESTIMATING THE BEARISH POTENTIAL , August 3, 2010
’… Will Anything Stop the Market? Something Did
… At the same time, the April numbers were lowered the second time by an
additional 24,000 units, while May sales were revised lower by 33,000 units. To
summarize, April and May sales were reduced by 57,000 units. Therefore, June
sales were 24% above May sales. By the way, May sales were the lowest on
record…
Temporary
Firehouse Closures Begin In Philadelphia CBS 3 | The city
of Philadelphia has started temporarily closing fire stations in order to
balance its budget.
Warning
Signs Suggest Market Headed for Another Collapse
Stocks' Late Push: Some
Optimism, Some Pessimism [Late
push … as in a constipated bowel movement … Come on! Another one of those push
the computer programmed trade button and off we go, reality / valuation /
economics be damned. In real security analysis (very simplified / summarized),
as opposed to the continued frauds on wall street, one must begin with the
largest and most significant aggregate (a simple word picture / analogy:
‘rising tide lifts all boats’). If you get this right, the probabilities in
your favor are substantially enhanced. From there, you want leading industries,
and leading companies within said leading industries (again, larger aggregates
then picks, to enhance probabilities, not guarantees, in your favor). Your time
frame, 1-3-5 yrs tops for projections, (including income statement/EPS, balance
sheet, and applying an appropriate P/E – a detailed, multi-faceted approach beyond
what could be described in this summary); and, that’s all they are,
projections. Beyond that time frame, your guess. On fraudulent wall street,
every day, though already discounted in large part (6-8 mos, approx.), the
market spins, churns, and with lightning fast computerized high-frequency trade
programs commissions in huge volumes like no other time in financial history
when real valuation meant something, with no net economic value added, but very
lucrative to the frauds on wall street, which ultimately is a net detriment to
the economy / the nation /and other industries as we’ve seen and as described
elsewhere on this site and in these posts http://albertpeia.com . Preposterously, they
even sometimes refer to seasonal factors as if hearing them for the first time
and ‘explaining’ an up move (almost invariably already discounted). Today, they
shrugged off the deepening economic reality despite the election year frothing
/ manipulations. This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market
in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in
a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national
decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the
wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and
disgorgement imposed. ].
Slowing economic rebound raises
unemployment fears (AP) [Wow! Talk about understatements!]
Marc Faber Questions if Dow Could
Hit 1,000 In the August edition of the ‘The Gloom, Boom
& Doom Report’ Marc Faber questions whether the Dow could hit 1,000 as predicted by Robert Prechter,
based on his interpretation of Elliot Waves, Fibonacci numbers and
socioeconomic trends. Prechter, who has written 13
books on finance (external link), believes that the
stock market is historically overvalued in terms of dividends and earnings,
because of a “great rise in positive social mood.” But the mood changed in 2000
and the “trend toward negative social mood will lead to an economic
contraction,” according to Prechter. “Small bear markets lead to recessions,
big bear markets lead to depressions. The current bear market will be the
biggest in nearly 300 years, so the depression will be correspondingly deep,”
Prechter said.
Wall
St falls after weak outlooks drag (Reuters) U.S. stocks sagged in volatile
trading on Thursday after weak outlooks from technology companies and downbeat
comments from a Federal Reserve official gave investors little reason to buy.
Fed says some districts report slowing economy (Reuters)
Flaws of the European Stress Test … 'Bank stress test' became the magic phrase. Nothing calms fear
like a stress test that's labeled as rigorous. The stress test raises a few very
obvious questions: 1) Will it work? 2) Why was it needed in addition to a $1
trillion aid package? 3) Is the stress test just a gimmick to appease
investors? The stress test is conducted by the London-based Committee of
European Banking Supervisors (CEBS). Ironically, the test has ignored the
majority of banks' holdings of sovereign debt. Sovereign debt concerns by the
so-called PIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain) triggered the
latest wave of financial problems. Ignoring sovereign debt in the Euro stress
test would be like ignoring toxic real estate assets in the U.S. 10%
Good - 90% Bad According to a Morgan Stanley survey, European banks
hold about 90% of their Greek government bonds in their banking books and 10%
in their trading books. The bonds in the banking book are generally held until
maturity, the bonds in the trading book are traded more frequently. According
to a document obtained by Bloomberg, the stress test assumes a loss of 23.1% on
Greek debt, 14% on Portuguese bonds, 12.3% on Spanish debt, 4.7% on German
debt, 10% on U.K. debt, and 5.9% on French debt. However, the stress test only
looks at the bonds held in banks' trading books, which account for a mere 10%
of Greek bond holdings. Can that be called a stress test? Nouriel Roubini says
that 'the assumptions made about economic growth, about sovereign risk are not
realistic enough.' The fact that only seven banks failed the test with a
combined shortfall of $4.5 billion confirms the lax nature of the test. … The U.S. Bank Stress Test - A Nice Façade
A closer look under the hood of the U.S. bank stress test, however, shows that
there's not much substance behind the facade either. It was determined that the
19 tested U.S. banks need to increase their balance sheets by $75 billion to
meet the conditions of what's termed the 'worst case scenario.' To a large
extent, the $75 billion of additional capital was financially engineered. Banks
didn't have to actually raise $75 billion. They were able to change the label
of some of their assets on their balance sheets. The government supported this
practice via mandatory convertible preferred shares (detailed analysis in May
2009 issue of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter) …’
Moody's:
Regional banks on review for downgrade (AP)
Consumer
confidence dims (Reuters)
Job worries drove July U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest since
February, with one in six people expecting lower income in the next six months,
underscoring the precarious state of econo...
Global
steelmakers paint gloomy picture (Reuters)
US
bank failures in 2010 surpass 100
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. bank failures this year have surpassed a bleak
milestone of 100 as regulators shut down banks in Georgia, Florida, South
Carolina, Kansas, Nevada and Minnesota. The six bank seizures announced Friday
bring to 102 the failures so far in 2010. The pace of bank closures this year
is well ahead of that of last year, which saw a total 140 bank shuttered amid
the recession and mounting loan defaults …
On the Disconnect Between the Market and the Economy Michael Shulman:
(No recession helicopter ben) Bernanke Admits Major Policy Failures; Stocks Soar Darryl Montgomery What's wrong with this picture?
In his bi-annual testimony before Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke
admitted that after more than a year and a half of zero interest rates and $3
trillion in federal deficit spending since 2008, the best case
scenario for the U.S. economy is slow growth and high unemployment. The S&P
500 is up 2.5% so far this morning on this 'good' news. Bernanke's congressional testimony included the
following statements (emphasis added by me):
"Most [FOMC] participants viewed uncertainty
about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the
majority saw [at the June Fed meeting] the risks to growth as weighted to
the downside."
"Financial conditions--though much improved
since the depth of the financial crisis--have become less supportive of
economic growth in recent months."
"Many banks continue to have a large volume
of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight.
With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank
loans outstanding have continued to contract."
"After two years of job losses, private payrolls
expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this
year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially.
In all likelihood, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the
nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009."…
Preparing
for World War III, Targeting Iran Humanity is at a dangerous crossroads.
War preparations to attack Iran are in “an advanced state of readiness”. Hi
tech weapons systems including nuclear warheads are fully deployed.
Pentagon tells WikiLeaks: "Do right thing" (Reuters) [Great
advice … if only the endless war, military complex based pentagon could take
it!] The Pentagon demanded on Thursday that whistle-blower web site WikiLeaks
immediately hand over about 15,000 secret Afghan war records it had not yet
published and erase material it had alrea…
Oliver
Stone has apologized for his anti-Semitic rant, but is the damage already done.
What damage? To perceived reality as opposed to reality? When you look at
america’s pro-israel, self-destructive, contra-indicated policies, including
the hands off policy vis-à-vis fraudulent wall street, you see the truth to
what he says which is what so many astute individuals are already thinking /
realizing. How can people continue to ignore the truth, to their own detriment
Think about it. Do you really think he would risk the typical onslaught if the
same weren’t true? ‘Director Oliver
Stone has been forced to make a grovelling apology over an anti-Semitic
outburst. The double Academy Award winner claimed that the Russians suffered
more during the Second World War and that there was a Jewish 'domination of the
media'. Stone also said that Jews had '****ed up' U.S. foreign policy for years
and suggested the British supported Hitler ...’ The relentless attacks on Mel
Gibson are of the same caliber and purpose; suppression of truth!
WASHPOST
Ombudsman: Why Silence on Black Panther Story? (Washington Post) ‘Thursday's Post reported about a growing
controversy over the Justice
Department's decision to scale down a voter-intimidation case against members
of the New Black Panther Party. The story succinctly summarized the issues
but left many readers with a question: What took you so long? For months,
readers have contacted the ombudsman wondering why The Post hasn't been
covering the case. The calls increased recently after competitors such as the
New York Times and the Associated Press wrote stories. Fox News and right-wing
bloggers have been pumping the story. Liberal bloggers have countered, accusing
them of trying to manufacture a scandal. But The Post has been virtually
silent. The story has its origins on Election Day in 2008, when two members of
the New Black Panther Party stood in front of a Philadelphia polling place. YouTube
video of the men, now viewed nearly 1.5 million times, shows both wearing
paramilitary clothing. One carried a nightstick…’
Latino
KKK: You are too white to be American! ALIPAC | Tan Klan woman can scream racist
comments because the Obama administration and most of the major news networks
in America have her back.
In weak economy, more people are filing early
for Social Security (Washington Post) I think this to be a combination of prescience and ‘get while the
getting’s good’. After all, this is an unfunded promise meant to be broken by
defacto bankrupt America.
In
Iraq, $2.6B unaccounted for (Washington Post) [Daaah! Fog of war frauds among others; the nation’s
treasury pillaged and plundered; I’ve previously commented here and included on
my website http://albertpeia.com , see infra] Pentagon can't account for how it spent $2.6 billion of Iraqi oil
proceeds, an IG report says.
Gerald Celente On the Alex
Jones Show: Double Dip Depression Will Lead Us Into War The white shoe boys are
taking us into the worst depression in history.
Google-Verizon Pact: It Gets
Worse [ Timothy Berners-Lee, putative father of the internet along
with Cerf, has already weighed in on this topic and strenuously opposed same
and whose learned opinion should be given great weight. google and verizon as
mere government shills at best and government, ie., nsa / cia, etc., operatives
at worst, are ‘johnny-come-latelies’ and died fast in government hands! ]. So Google and Verizon went
public today with their “policy framework” — better known as the pact to end
the Internet as we know it.
What
Pentagon cuts mean for future of defense contractors (Washington Post) Well, taking a page from the fraudulent wall street glass
always half full even when empty camp, they might say more pie and less
competition for that inner circle of frauds. You know, this is a dead goose
with gold-plated eggs scenario. Reality: U.S.
IS BANKRUPT AND WE DON’T EVEN KNOW IT : LAURENCE KOTLIKOFF AUG. 11
(BLOOMBERG) -(WASHINGTON POST) - LET’S GET
REAL. THE U.S. IS BANKRUPT. NEITHER SPENDING MORE NOR TAXING LESS WILL HELP THE
COUNTRY PAY ITS BILLS ... Peter Schiff: “We’re in the
Early Stages of a Depression” The
Motley Fool | Four years and the worst
recession since the Great Depression later, Schiff stands alone again with a
bleaker diagnosis for the economy: an inflationary depression.
Yeah!
Dave’s the only one who seems to be on the mark concerning the preposterous
market action this day. Even before reading same I was going to comment here
that I believed that the decision to ‘mouse click / button push’ the programmed
buy trades was probably made after hours in the previous session. Remember,
these are desperate criminally insane frauds on wall street who really try very
hard to get people to by into their paper-churning high-frequency trade /
commission scam for which ultimately potentially productive money is siphoned
off / drained from the economy into their pockets which is a net negative in
real economic terms. They know all the tricks, technical trendlines, moving
averages, etc., to suck them in: Buy Program Express Lifts Markets: Dave's Daily - The
economic news from the unemployment report could not be worse and an old
pattern was repeated -- higher volume on a selloff followed by an engineered
"stick save" into the close. It used to be hard to make this stuff
up, now it's becoming routine. As noted yesterday, bulls might like bad data
since they'd expect another round of quantitative easing (QE2) from the Fed and
a politically desperate administration. This means more liquidity baby and an
opportunity to lift stocks to new highs. That's the thinking from bizzaro-land.
So we get another big intraday 150 point swing in the DJIA as the "2:15 PM
Buy Program Express" hits the tape on time as volume starts to dry up.
That's why the caution sign advises to stay away from the Program Trading
Express. Nevertheless, volume increased
Friday with most of that coming early and often. Breadth was negative but not
overwhelmingly so.
(08-09-10)
Economists
Herald New Great Depression The world is
currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression,
according to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others
now forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.
Economist
sticks by stimulus, regrets call on jobless rate (Washington Post) Well,
they skipped the ‘fall on her sword for the sake of the empire’ part, albeit a
defacto bankrupt empire … or, maybe that’s why she was chosen … because she’s a
Rome ..r. I’m still perplexed since ‘no-recession-helicopter-ben’ bernanke and
senile greenspun have far worse track records and indeed have been causative
agents for crises owing to their consistent ‘misdiagnoses’, and as if tenured
to said position received no such critical, job-jeopardizing scrutiny ( I’d
abolish the fed, absent full audit / transparency. In other words, I’d abolish
the fed).
Jobs Report: Companies Slow to Hire Only about 8 percent of the 8.4 million
jobs lost at the peak of the recession have been recovered, leaving millions of
Americans still looking for work, according to an analysis by ABC News'
Business Unit. Video: News Update: US
Unemployment Rate Holds at 9.5%, 71,000 Jobs Added in June SmarTrend News 71K more jobs not enough to dent unemployment rate The Associated Press
Come on! Preposterous!
Service sector? You mean the the b*** s*** sector. Even if believed (I don’t
believe anything they say, and at the least all must be discounted down, as
they do later when people have forgotten that’s the purported reason they
rallied), what is 17,000 service (predominantly b*** s*** government bought
jobs with non-existent deficit building funds with some exceptions – yes, 80%
of america’s economy is now b*** s*** and as on wall street, fraud) jobs in the
relative scheme of things given the magnitude of the problems, structural and
otherwise? Nothing! Stocks went up on typically spun ‘nothing’.
General's
record is set straight (Washington Post) Knowing for sure, you know, that it
truly was Nixon who banged that pregnant girl just like the tea shirt said is
kind of a mind altering experience. After all, just as Truman once said, Nixon
didn’t know whether he’s lying or telling the truth. Well, that’s one for old
saint Nixon since that militates against intent; you know, the not knowing
part, and after all, he was a liar(sic) by trade. Truth be told, by more
current american standards of corruption, venality, verity, etc., Nixon was but
a choir boy. The irony of it all. Oh,
the times they are a changin’.
Comment on: Jobs
in the cards? at 8/4/2010 6:11 AM EDT
How Obama can help small
business (Washington Post) You’re a bit late … they’ve already decided how to
help … you might call their plan of putting them out of their vaunted misery
mercy killing, euthanasia, etc..
FHA: Mortgage insurance claims down (Washington Post) At least somethin’s goin’
up, according to tiny tim ‘God bless us, everyone’! Treasury Secretary Timothy
Geithner: Unemployment Could Go Up Before It Comes Down Infowars.com - [Ooooh!
Sounds like a plan ‘tiny tim’! … God bless us everyone! ] Treasury Secretary
Timothy Geithner acknowledged that it is still a “tough economy” for most
americans, and warned it’s possible the unemployment rate will go up for a
couple of months before it comes down as more people enter the labor force.
U.S. savings rate at highest level in a year, data show: UNEASE ABOUT U.S.
ECONOMY
Data suggest recovery not yet self-sustaining (Washington Post) Riiiight!
Income and spending basically unchanged with falloff in both, while pending housing
sales down to the lowest level on record. The half-glass full frauds on wall
street will take it. They can spin that.
Drudgereport: NEW LOW FOR O: USATODAYGALLUP HAS OBAMA APPROVE AT 41%...
Americans swap passports; Desire to avoid tax leads some to renounce
citizenship...
FALTERING RECOVERY TRIPS DOLLAR...
GM, FORD and CHRYSLER Sales All Lag Estimates...
Comment on: FHA
is in better shape than expected at
8/4/2010 5:55 AM EDT
FHA: Mortgage insurance
claims down (Washington Post) At least somethin’s goin’ up, according to tiny
tim ‘God bless us, everyone’! Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner: Unemployment
Could Go Up Before It Comes Down Infowars.com - [Ooooh! Sounds like a plan
‘tiny tim’! … God bless us everyone! ] Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner
acknowledged that it is still a “tough economy” for most americans, and warned
it’s possible the unemployment rate will go up for a couple of months before it
comes down as more people enter the labor force.
Comment on: As
wages stall, savings rate rises at
8/4/2010 4:56 AM EDT
U.S. savings rate at highest
level in a year, data show (Washington Post) Riiiight! Income and spending
basically unchanged with falloff in both, while pending housing sales down to
the lowest level on record. The half-glass full frauds on wall street will take
it.
Comment on: Democrats
turn to manufacturing for jobs at 8/4/2010
4:52 AM EDT
Manufacturing focus of
jobs plan (Washington Post) L’il bit late, but, sounds like a plan. The
government’s defacto bankrupt, but, they could always use an extra pen or two
for signing those spending bills. No bics allowed. Made in usa pens only. Ah!
But alas. Defacto bankrupt america’s expertise now lies in manufacturing wars.
Slowing economic rebound raises
unemployment fears (AP) [Wow! Talk about understatements!]
PricewaterhouseCoopers
laying off 500 employees
(Washington Post) Well, the least you can say for these accountants is
that unlike washington, they can do basic math (add / subtract).
Regulators
close banks (108 total 2010) in Fla., Ga., Ore., Wash. (Washington Post)
Sounds like a plan! Things going swimmingly. Just separating the wheat from the
chaff, so to speak.
U.S.
recovery hopes fade as economic growth dips (Washington
Post) Gross domestic product is not rising fast enough to ease unemployment …
Previous-Mideast
Digest Israeli shelling kills 2 wounds 6 Gaza civilians: (Washington Post)
[War criminal israelis justified their attack saying when the 10 year
old girl grew up to be a woman she’d be prepared to fire rockets at them]
In 1948, U.S. Secretary of Defense James Forrestal, an opponent
of the creation of a Jewish state in Palestine, warned that, even though
failure to go along with the Zionists might cost President Truman the states of
New York, Pennsylvania, and California, it was about time that somebody should
pay some consideration to whether we might not lose the United States. Mr.
Forrestal was absolutely correct! Isn’t that exactly what’s happened to defacto
bankrupt america in intractable decline.
TIME
TO REVOKE AND NULLIFY THE BALFOUR DECLARATION AND ABROGATE THE CREATION OF THE
NATION STATE OF ISRAEL
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
DIGEST: Consumer confidence down; home
prices up (from and at low levels which Shiller’s concedes are for
the moment stabilized but unsustainable) (Washington Post) The positive here is that at least the
consumers / populace have finally got something right.
Consumer
confidence dims (Reuters)
Job worries drove July U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest since
February, with one in six people expecting lower income in the next six months,
underscoring the precarious state of econo...
Moody's:
Regional banks on review for downgrade (AP)
Global
steelmakers paint gloomy picture (Reuters)
US
bank failures in 2010 surpass 100
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. bank failures this year have surpassed a bleak
milestone of 100 as regulators shut down banks in Georgia, Florida, South
Carolina, Kansas, Nevada and Minnesota. The six bank seizures announced Friday
bring to 102 the failures so far in 2010. The pace of bank closures this year
is well ahead of that of last year, which saw a total 140 bank shuttered amid
the recession and mounting loan defaults …
This is quite incredible. The wobama market … based on b*** s***
alone. Yes, there’s a waning full moon. Yes, this is an election year and we’ve
seen frothing, false data / reports before. But come on! This is downright ridiculous.
I had occasion to hear from a so-called money manager on what used to be a
balanced business / finance radio program (I seldom listen to said program
anymore, truth be told, but owing to a scheduling quirk caught same this day)
say that all the economic / business news last week was good. In point of fact,
the actual news was all bad (except for some sporadic earnings reports that
were discounted many months ago). What parallel universe are these foisty
feisty frauds living in? Again, waning full moon Then the infamous federal but
not really federal, express in only a month (with blazing full moon) changed
downward guidance to upward guidance and based on b*** s***, and voila …
another full moon rally (oh yeah, the percentage up from low level housing
still low). Are the 30 day lunar cycles at work or just election year frothing?
Preposterous. Fundamentals have not changed. Structural problems to the economy
and insurmountable debt remain and will worsen. All their computer programmed
trading tricks with eye towards so-called technical support, resistance, etc.,
levels will suck some suckers in as always, they’ll still get their commissions
on the way down, and we’ll see the bubble deflate again.
This is an especially great opportunity to sell and take whatever
profits / gains because there is truly much worse to come and the nation’s
defacto bankrupt in every way.
This Week in the Markets - Suttmeier ‘ …Bank Failure Friday – The FDIC closed
seven banks last Friday bringing the total for the month of July to 17 and 103
for the year. Month to date bank failures have drained the FDIC Deposit
Insurance fund by $925.7 million brining the year to date today to $18.5
billion well above the $15.33 billion prepaid assessments for all of 2010. I
estimate that the DIF is now in arrears by $32.7 billion.
The Death of Paper Money Ambrose
Evans-Pritchard | As they
prepare for holiday reading in Tuscany, City bankers are buying up rare copies
of an obscure book on the mechanics of Weimar inflation published in 1974.
Yes! I just (7-24-10) looked up and a
quandary no longer as I saw the reason for the market action to the upside the
last few sessions. A blazing full moon! Lest there be any doubt, truly a
testament to the reality of lunacy and the lunar links thereto are the lunatic
fraudulent rallies on fraudulent wall street; criminally insane by any
standard.
This
is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression.
The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market.
This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes
with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and
sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato
scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national
decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted,
jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Push
to cut top brass causing much unease (Washington Post) [ Of ‘geese and gold-plated
eggs’ … I think only fables, cartoons, and nursery rhymes are the means by
which to convey the depth and seriousness of america’s decline / bankruptcy.
They really just don’t get it. Denial. Mental infirmity. Outright stupidity.
Whatever the reason, reality is what it is. DRUDGEREPORT: America Is 'Bankrupt Mickey Mouse Economy'...
WIRE: USA 'Bankrupt and We
Don't Even Know It'...
DEFICIT ADDS
$165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT HITS RECORD HIGH
JOBLESS CLAIMS JUMP TO
HIGHEST SINCE FEB...
California can't pay bills --
may use IOUs for August payments...
DEFICIT ADDS
$165,040,000,000.00 -- IN ONE MONTH!
Homes lost to foreclosure up
6% from last year...
Grim Voter Mood Turns
Grimmer... and others Economists
Herald New Great Depression … ] None of the Pentagon's spending cuts and
budget battles is causing more angst than Robert Gates's vow to trim number of
generals and admirals.
Petraeus:
Strategy is on track (Washington
Post) (What strategy? It just gets worse. america’s defacto bankrupt! Plus,
we’ve heard this before! Drudgereport:
Petraeus: 'We're doing
everything we can' …[Sounds like a plan!]...Builds Case for 'Success' in
Afghanistan …[If only words could make it so!]...) In Washington Post interview, general says he sees
signs of progress in Afghanistan, supports Obama's decision to begin
withdrawing troops next July.
China
focuses on military might (Washington Post) [And the big difference here (between them
and defacto bankrupt america) is that ‘THEY CAN AFFORD IT’ and are not fighting
nation-bankrupting, anti-american-sentiment-creating wars all over the place.] Nation is quickly modernizing forces,
extending influence deep into Pacific and Indian oceans.
Afghans
still see U.S. as bad guy (Washington
Post ) [Riiiiight! Sounds
like a plan … winning hearts and minds throughout the world … great for exports
also as such ‘won hearts and minds’ just love to buy american.] American, NATO
forces retain blame for civilian deaths despite spike from insurgent violence.
U.S. looks to replicate Iraq
strategy, tactics (Washington Post ) [Oh right! Stick with that winning plan that worked so swimmingly (as
in drowning, in ie., debt, death, regional if not wordly anti-american
sentiment, etc.)]. In Kandahar, U.S. military
officials hope that a secure green zone, similar to the area in Baghdad, will
make it more difficult for Taliban insurgents to mount attacks to key buildings
in the Afghan city.
Accountability is unclear in israeli probe of flotilla
raid (Washington
Post) Oh, come on! An israeli probe of an
israeli massacre of civilians. Time for israel to pay; for illegal nukes, for
violations of international law, for continued violations of u.n. resolutions,
for provocations as pretexts to sabotage peace talks, and on and on ad nauseum.
Why does america among other nations feel compelled to sacrifice themselves for
the sake of a global criminal nation with an insatiable greed and blood-thirst
as israel?
The
israeli Spin-Machine in Overdrive: dershowitz to the Rescue? Armed
Israeli commandos, the elite of the elites, rappelled to the deck of a Turkish
ship carrying humanitarian relief supplies to the 1.5 million prisoners in the
Gaza concentration camp.
Previous-Mideast
Digest Israeli shelling kills 2 wounds 6 Gaza civilians: (Washington Post)
[War criminal israelis justified their attack saying when the 10 year
old girl grew up to be a woman she’d be prepared to fire rockets at them …
press on says fellow war criminal defacto bankrupt nation america] israeli shellfire killed two Palestinian freedom
fighters and wounded six people, including a 10-year-old girl, in the Gaza
Strip, Palestinian medical workers and an official with a militant group said.
An israeli military spokeswoman said soldiers opened fire on militants
suspected of preparing to fire a rocket at them.
Comment on: Mideast
Digest at 8/4/2010 5:44 AM EDT
Mideast Digest
(Washington Post, August 4, 2010) Blowback’s a reality. One that only fools
would ignore, defacto bankrupt america. Time to throw hated war criminal nation
israel under the bus. Why should america sacrifice itself for the war mongering
israelis. They’d NEVER do that for america. I’ve even heard analysts with
regional expertise say that the nation was better off under sadam.
Top Secret America: How
the DOD does it (Washington Post) Does what? Come On! You can’t take this
guy seriously. First, he’s military; what do you expect him to say. Second, he
talks of wars as if they always have to have one or be searching for one and we
all know they “find” them. Finally, he all but ignores what the underrated
President General Eisenhower warned of in the form of the unscrupulous,
insatiably greedy military/industrial complex which as colonel he but a very
small cog in who goes along to get along. The fact is also that they can’t be
managed and also that they don’t even try!
Afghanistan war deaths (Washington
Post) What a colossal waste; the u.s. might even spin this to a growth
scenario, albeit in deaths. For General Petraeus, battling corruption in
Afghanistan is a priority (Washington Post) If Betraeus is
serious, he better look closer to home / u.s.!
WikiLeaks documents cause little concern over
public perception of war: WikiLeaks documents cause little concern over
public perception of war (Washington Post) Of course not! That’s what defacto
coup d’etat is all about (even beyond their propaganda). The public,
overwhelming against these nation-bankrupting illegal wars (america is defacto
bankrupt) which fact propelled spineless incompetent vegetable wobama to the
whitehouse, has become irrelevant in their view,; but, not so fast as mass
unrest is afoot.
Ron
Paul: After ‘CIA coup,’ agency ‘runs military’ US House Rep. Ron Paul
says the CIA has has in effect carried out a “coup” against the US government,
and the intelligence agency needs to be “taken out.” I also personally
believe there has been a defacto coup d’etat which has manifested in
various substantial, blatant, brazened frauds, ie., wall street, missing 360
tons of $100 bills in Iraq, war profiteering, etc., without any fear of
prosecution, and of course concomitant decline for u.s. as the treasury is
looted. But I also believe its scope is beyond just the CIA with many complicit
within the corrupted 3 branches of u.s. government (fed judges, us attorneys,
illegal system, etc.) plus the military and private big money, ie., Goldman
Sachs / wall street men, etc., among other organized crime. america is defacto
bankrupt in every way!
In
Iraq, $2.6B unaccounted for (Washington Post) [Daaah! Fog of war frauds among others; the nation’s
treasury pillaged and plundered; I’ve previously commented here and included on
my website http://albertpeia.com , see infra] Pentagon can't account for how it spent $2.6 billion of Iraqi oil
proceeds, an IG report says.
Articles on Catherine Austin Fitts' Blog: http://solari.com
Billions
over Baghdadby
Donald L. Barlett and James B. Steele - Vanity FairSeptember 2007
Those Who Blow Whistle on
Contractor Fraud in Iraq Face PenaltiesDeborah Hastings -
APAugust 2007
Auditor Quits with NASA
Finances in ChaosBy
Arindam Nag and Deborah ZabarenkoMay 15, 2004
The War on WasteCBS NewsCiting "cooked books" at DoD,
Rumsfeld on the missing $2.3 trillion, ... January 29, 2002
Military Stashes Covert
Millions St.
Petersburg TimesSeptember 28, 2003
Key
Documents
U.S.
Department of Defense Web Site "The technology revolution has transformed
organizations across the private sector, but not ours, not fully, not yet. We
are, as they say, tangled in our anchor chain. Our financial systems are
decades old. According to some estimates, we cannot track $2.3 trillion in
transactions. We cannot share information from floor to floor in this building
because it's stored on dozens of technological systems that are inaccessible or
incompatible."- Remarks as Delivered by Secretary of Defense Donald H.
Rumsfeld, The Pentagon, Monday, September 10, 2001 Independent Audit Report - Department of DefenseRe: $1.1 Trillion Missing from DODFebruary 26, 2002
Testimony of the Inspector General - Department of Housing
& Urban DevelopmentRe: $59 Billion Missing from HUD March 22, 2000 Discrepancies in America's
Accounts Hide a Black Hole By Daniel Gros, Financial Times June 15, 2006
Road to Ruin by Eric Sprott, Sprott Asset Management Regarding
the $11 Trillion Deficit in the US Government in FY 2004January 2005
U.S.' Missing $Trillions Make
Mainstream At LastScoop
Media's version of the Chronicle Story with more links addedMay 26, 2003
Dillon,
Read & Co. Inc. and the Aristocracy of Stock Profits by Catherine
Austin Fitts A case study of two teams each
with competing visions for America.April 2006
Estimate $3.3 Trillion Missing From U.S. Treasuryby Buddy Grizzard An excellent overview integrating
coverage by key investigative journalists August 2002
Where is the Collateral? and So, Where is the Collateral?A two-part series by Chris Sanders of Sanders
Research Associates in London
These articles connect the dots between the missing money, the Where is the
Money? litigation,
questionable HUD deals, and the impact on the investment communityOctober 2003
and July 2004
U.S. "Could Be Going
Bankrupt"by
Edmund Conway, Economics EditorUK TelegraphJuly 2006
whereisthemoney.org Web site documenting the missing money -- includes
petition, FAQs, Who's Who ... also available in Spanish
Top Secret America: How
the DOD does it (Washington Post) Does what? Come On! You can’t take this
guy seriously. First, he’s military; what do you expect him to say. Second, he
talks of wars as if they always have to have one or be searching for one and we
all know they “find” them. Finally, he all but ignores what the underrated
President General Eisenhower warned of in the form of the unscrupulous,
insatiably greedy military/industrial complex which as colonel he but a very
small cog in who goes along to get along. The fact is also that they can’t be
managed and also that they don’t even try!
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘In light of this
development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Web Site Archived FLV Version
of Esoteric Agenda http://albertpeia.com/esotericagenda.flv
(Previously) I’d say this
alito vs. wobama is a tempest in a teapot inasmuch as alito is more than just a
lightweight, hack, liar, fraud etc., as set forth in the comments. alito is a
criminal who should have served / should be serving time in prison for
obstruction of justice, bribery, among other RICO violations. To alito, drug
money is as green as corporate money and worth his vote as well. In addition to
being an inept [I looked in on the one mob case he had brought, bungled, lost
(accidently on purpose?) since I was suing some mob-connected under RICO and
the court (I had known / previously met outside of court the judge Ackerman
through a client) was absolute bedlam and a total joke since incompetent
corrupt alito brought in all 20 mob defendants (rather than prosecute one or a
few to flip them first) who feigning illness had beds/cots in the courtroom
along with their moans during testimony and had the jury in stitches)] and
corrupt (see below and particularly the summary provided to the FBI under
penalty of perjury [
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
] ) u.s. attorney.
You’re naïve to think
that the so-called supreme court is any different from the rest of the
meaningfully lawless and pervasively corrupt american ‘system’. I knew well an
accomplished trial lawyer, fellow american college of trial lawyers / and a bar
examiner, who pondered from time to time becoming a judge “so he’d never have
to work again” – his words.
Some comments on
alito…all appropriate:
Probably the worst appointment in one
hundred years.
Posted by: mnjam
-----------------------
Really? That's a pretty sweeping
statement to make about someone who's only been on the court a short few years.
And I thought that liberals were in
universal agreement that Clarence Thomas was the worst appointment in all of
history?
Posted by: blert | January 28, 2010 2:11
AM | Report abuse
----------------------------
Yes. Really. Alito is a total lightweight and hack. He makes Thomas look like
John Marshall or Oliver Wendell Holmes. I KNOW ALITO.
Posted by: mnjam | January 28, 2010 2:24 AM |
the loser here is alito.lost his composure not good for a judge especially
afederal or supreme justice .loser big time this will live with guy for a very
time.roberts and the other justices will have a talk with him that is a
given.this relly larger than o one day news cycle.
Posted by: donaldtucker | January 28, 2010 1:12 AM |
Should Alito resign or be impeached?
Posted by: jdmca | January 28, 2010 1:05 AM |
I
include the first two comments to the foregoing headline:
Billo Says:
June 11th, 2010 at 6:15
am
Lunacy? Keep in mind
that this country is run and controlled by lunatics. Our press government and
military seem to take their orders from Israel. Isarel wants to be known as a
pack of “mad dogs. Do we want “mad dogs” controlling us?
Here we see a bunch of phony accusations against Iran just
like we did in the run up to the bogus wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and now
Pakistan. The boy has cried wold ten thousand times. It’s time to identify the
“lunatics” and kindly take away the car keys. If you won’t let your friends
drive drunk, why do we let a bunch of “lunatic” enemies run this place.
Glen Reply:
June 11th, 2010 at 6:47
am
Lunacy it would be.
But it is also to their
great credit that the Iranians have not made their own threats.
Everyone knows there are
3 WMD threats, Nuclear Biological and chemical. The scariest of which is
Biological.
Any attack done under
the threat of immediate biological retaliation would deter only the insane.
Watch out america home
of the insane, home of the leaders who want an 80% population reduction.
Mideast
Digest Israeli shelling kills 2 wounds 6 Gaza civilians: (Washington Post)
[War criminal israelis justified their attack saying when the 10 year
old girl grew up to be a woman she’d be prepared to fire rockets at them …
press on says fellow war criminal defacto bankrupt nation america] israeli shellfire killed two Palestinian freedom
fighters and wounded six people, including a 10-year-old girl, in the Gaza
Strip, Palestinian medical workers and an official with a militant group said.
An israeli military spokeswoman said soldiers opened fire on militants
suspected of preparing to fire a rocket at them.
A
Plague Upon The World: The USA is a “Failed State” Dr. Paul
Craig Roberts | The American people are lost in la-la land. They have
no idea that their civil liberties have been forfeited. US
citizen killed on flotilla reportedly shot four times in head Raw
Story | A forensic report said Furkan Dogan was shot at close range,
with four bullets in his head and one in his chest, according to the Anatolian
news agency. The explanation foisted off on the americans by war criminal
israelis is probably something on the order of ‘they just wanted to make sure
they missed him’. Roberts:
‘AIPAC purchases US elections’ Russia Today | Paul
Craig Roberts says that there will be nothing that is going to be done by the
United States to change the relationship with Israel.
‘US
funding terrorist group against Iran’ Press TV | A
member of a terrorist organization operating in Iran says that a US State
department radio station originally put him in touch with the group.
Paul
Craig Roberts: Government Abandoned Vietnam POWs Kurt Nimmo
| John McCain worked overtime to make sure Vietnam POWs never came home. I
think the even bigger story vis-à-vis mccain is: http://www.albertpeia.com/heroenot.htm
‘Did you know that that so-called "american heroe" john mccain was
referred to by his fellow pows in Vietnam as something akin to the
"songbird" inasmuch as he was constantly "singing" to his
Viet-Cong captors to curry favor and better treatment? This has been documented
with authority by Colonel David Hackworth. The same violates military
code/protocol (other soldiers have been court-martialed for far less) click Here, Here. [ http://www.albertpeia.com/hackworth.htm
] But, you see, this covered up scenario, compromizing the false facade
of far less than a heroe, is exactly what a criminal (lie of a) nation as
america loves and encourages (get everyone's hands dirty so no-one dares to
rectify same, ie., bush, sr., clinton, bush, jr.). That is, "toe the
(corrupt, propagandized) line", become a criminal, or be exposed,
prosecuted, and/or ruined; and, hasn't anyone asked how "wall street"
has been "spared the spotlight" (and even was accorded protective
legislation from their criminal culpability) and focus of inquiry, attention,
and prosecution despite being the primary beneficiaries financial and otherwise
of these scams (you know the wall street motto, "churn and earn";
huge conflicts of interest if not outright fraud)…’
Coalition wants UK space lift-off [ Don’t make me laugh! ]
Israel’s
Nukes Out of the Shadows Israel faces unprecedented pressure to
abandon its official policy of “ambiguity” on its possession of nuclear weapons
as the international community meets at the United Nations in New York this
week to consider banning such arsenals from the Middle East.
NASA wants mission to bring Martian rocks to Earth (AP) Why?
They already have that and more:
Launch
of secret US space ship masks even more secret launch of new weapon
http://www.albertpeia.com/UFOetryWeNeverWentToTheMoonPNTV.wmv
[To the
Professor at the beginning of the course]
10-5-09
Postscript: Professor *****,
I felt compelled to thank you again for the add; not to curry your favor but
indeed to express profound thanks inasmuch as this is probably the last formal
course at a formal educational institution I'll ever take; and among the most
important. While I had bought at discount a library-discarded 1993 Anthropology
by Embers text, though meaning to read same never quite got to it. I am
astounded by the substantial amount of time involved in the evolutionary
process, not that I ever stopped to think about it, and one must come away with
the sense of 'and all that...for this?'. This course should be required
curriculum along with psychology, sociology, etc., but probably won't be owing
to what is, as it should be, a very humbling educational experience for any
member of the human race.
Regards,
Al Peia
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
How
much is $1.4 trillion? | Doing
the math (Washington Post) Math?
How plebian a task on capital hill. I think the lack thereof is as much a lack
of aptitude / intelligence as it is a lack of will. And, this is a bi-partisan
foible. According to the Debt Clock (approx. two months ago):
• Total national debt: $13 trillion (near 13.3 now)
• Debt per citizen: $42,026
• Debt per taxpayer: $117,982
• Total interest due: $1.9 trillion
• Interest per citizen: $2,211
Click here to see the Debt Clock, which is updated every
second.
• Total personal debt: $16.5 trillion
• Total mortgage debt: $14.1 trillion
• Total consumer debt: $2.45 trillion
• Personal debt per citizen: $53,483
• Debt held by foreign countries: $4.07
trillion
Jobless
claims jump higher than expected (Washington Post) Sounds like a reason for a feel good rally on
fraudulent wall street, however ephemeral.
They
ensured financial regulation overhaul (Washington Post) What
overhaul? New bureaucracy, more power to the fed and corrupt incompetents as
tiny tim geithner (that $4 trillion’s still missing from the ny fed), no
recession helicopter ben bernanke, perps scot free and keep their loot, etc..
Real reform requires that the wall
street frauds et als be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement
imposed.
Existing-home
sales drop for second month (Washington Post) Bad economic news … what
better reason for a typically fraudulent suckers’ bear market, short-covering
rally for the high-frequency computerized churn-and-earn wall street frauds to
commission and ultimately sell into.
Go to following pages for
above links:
http://www.albertpeia.com/currentopics2ndqtr10108.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm
You may post a comment on my blog on any
topic: http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com
WASHPOST Ombudsman: Why
Silence on Black Panther Story? (Washington Post) ‘Thursday's Post reported about a growing
controversy over the Justice
Department's decision to scale down a voter-intimidation case against members
of the New Black Panther Party. The story succinctly summarized the issues
but left many readers with a question: What took you so long? For months,
readers have contacted the ombudsman wondering why The Post hasn't been covering
the case. The calls increased recently after competitors such as the New York
Times and the Associated Press wrote stories. Fox News and right-wing bloggers
have been pumping the story. Liberal bloggers have countered, accusing them of
trying to manufacture a scandal. But The Post has been virtually silent. The
story has its origins on Election Day in 2008, when two members of the New
Black Panther Party stood in front of a Philadelphia polling place. YouTube
video of the men, now viewed nearly 1.5 million times, shows both wearing
paramilitary clothing. One carried a nightstick…’
DRUDGEREPORT: Arab guilty of rape after
consensual sex with Jew... ‘An Israeli man of Arab origin has been convicted of rape after having
consensual sex with a woman who had believed him to be a fellow Jew. Sabbar
Kashur, 30, was sentenced to 18 months in prison on Monday after the court
ruled that he was guilty of rape by deception. According to the complaint filed
by the woman with the Jerusalem district court, the two met in downtown
Jerusalem in September 2008 where Kashur, an Arab from East Jerusalem,
introduced himself as a Jewish bachelor seeking a serious relationship. The two
then had consensual sex in a nearby building before Kashur left. When she later
found out that he was not Jewish but an Arab, she filed a criminal complaint
for rape and indecent assault …’
Mideast
Digest Israeli shelling kills 2 wounds 6 Gaza civilians: (Washington Post)
[War criminal israelis justified their attack saying when the 10 year
old girl grew up to be a woman she’d be prepared to fire rockets at them …
press on says fellow war criminal defacto bankrupt nation america] israeli shellfire killed two Palestinian freedom
fighters and wounded six people, including a 10-year-old girl, in the Gaza
Strip, Palestinian medical workers and an official with a militant group said.
An israeli military spokeswoman said soldiers opened fire on militants
suspected of preparing to fire a rocket at them.
The yardarm is the
remedy Dozens of our friends and comrades, of wonderful compassionate
activists are dead and wounded in the pirate attack in the high seas on
humanitarian aid boats. This is a dreadful crime that will forever be
remembered and should be punished. The Israeli pirates attacked the
humanitarian aid Freedom Flotilla in the international waters over 150 km out
of their territorial waters. The boats carried no arms; the participants
strictly adhered to Ghandian mode by asking the Greek and Cyprus authorities to
search the boats to avoid later claims that they were armed.
A
Plague Upon The World: The USA is a “Failed State” Dr. Paul
Craig Roberts | The American people are lost in la-la land. They have
no idea that their civil liberties have been forfeited. US
citizen killed on flotilla reportedly shot four times in head Raw
Story | A forensic report said Furkan Dogan was shot at close range,
with four bullets in his head and one in his chest, according to the Anatolian
news agency. The explanation foisted off on the americans by war criminal
israelis is probably something on the order of ‘they just wanted to make sure
they missed him’. Roberts:
‘AIPAC purchases US elections’ Russia Today | Paul
Craig Roberts says that there will be nothing that is going to be done by the
United States to change the relationship with Israel.
‘US
funding terrorist group against Iran’ Press TV | A member of a terrorist organization
operating in Iran says that a US State department radio station originally put
him in touch with the group.
Mideast
Digest Israeli shelling kills 2 wounds 6 Gaza civilians: (Washington Post)
[War criminal israelis justified their attack saying when the 10 year
old girl grew up to be a woman she’d be prepared to fire rockets at them … press
on says fellow war criminal defacto bankrupt nation america] israeli shellfire killed two Palestinian freedom
fighters and wounded six people, including a 10-year-old girl, in the Gaza
Strip, Palestinian medical workers and an official with a militant group said.
An israeli military spokeswoman said soldiers opened fire on militants
suspected of preparing to fire a rocket at them.
Top Secret America: How
the DOD does it (Washington Post) Does what? Come On! You can’t take this
guy seriously. First, he’s military; what do you expect him to say. Second, he
talks of wars as if they always have to have one or be searching for one and we
all know they “find” them. Finally, he all but ignores what the underrated
President General Eisenhower warned of in the form of the unscrupulous,
insatiably greedy military/industrial complex which as colonel he but a very
small cog in who goes along to get along. The fact is also that they can’t be
managed and also that they don’t even try!
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘In light of this
development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Web Site Archived FLV Version
of Esoteric Agenda http://albertpeia.com/esotericagenda.flv
(Previously) I’d say this
alito vs. wobama is a tempest in a teapot inasmuch as alito is more than just a
lightweight, hack, liar, fraud etc., as set forth in the comments. alito is a
criminal who should have served / should be serving time in prison for
obstruction of justice, bribery, among other RICO violations. To alito, drug
money is as green as corporate money and worth his vote as well. In addition to
being an inept [I looked in on the one mob case he had brought, bungled, lost
(accidently on purpose?) since I was suing some mob-connected under RICO and
the court (I had known / previously met outside of court the judge Ackerman
through a client) was absolute bedlam and a total joke since incompetent
corrupt alito brought in all 20 mob defendants (rather than prosecute one or a
few to flip them first) who feigning illness had beds/cots in the courtroom
along with their moans during testimony and had the jury in stitches)] and
corrupt (see below and particularly the summary provided to the FBI under
penalty of perjury [
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
] ) u.s. attorney.
You’re naïve to think
that the so-called supreme court is any different from the rest of the
meaningfully lawless and pervasively corrupt american ‘system’. I knew well an
accomplished trial lawyer, fellow american college of trial lawyers / and a bar
examiner, who pondered from time to time becoming a judge “so he’d never have
to work again” – his words.
Some comments on
alito…all appropriate:
Probably the worst appointment in one
hundred years.
Posted by: mnjam
-----------------------
Really? That's a pretty sweeping
statement to make about someone who's only been on the court a short few years.
And I thought that liberals were in
universal agreement that Clarence Thomas was the worst appointment in all of
history?
Posted by: blert | January 28, 2010 2:11
AM | Report abuse
----------------------------
Yes. Really. Alito is a total lightweight and hack. He makes Thomas look like
John Marshall or Oliver Wendell Holmes. I KNOW ALITO.
Posted by: mnjam | January 28, 2010 2:24 AM |
the loser here is alito.lost his composure not good for a judge especially
afederal or supreme justice .loser big time this will live with guy for a very
time.roberts and the other justices will have a talk with him that is a
given.this relly larger than o one day news cycle.
Posted by: donaldtucker | January 28, 2010 1:12 AM |
Should Alito resign or be impeached?
Posted by: jdmca | January 28, 2010 1:05 AM |
I
include the first two comments to the foregoing headline:
Billo Says:
June 11th, 2010 at 6:15
am
Lunacy? Keep in mind
that this country is run and controlled by lunatics. Our press government and
military seem to take their orders from Israel. Isarel wants to be known as a
pack of “mad dogs. Do we want “mad dogs” controlling us?
Here we see a bunch of phony accusations against Iran just
like we did in the run up to the bogus wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and now
Pakistan. The boy has cried wold ten thousand times. It’s time to identify the
“lunatics” and kindly take away the car keys. If you won’t let your friends
drive drunk, why do we let a bunch of “lunatic” enemies run this place.
Glen Reply:
June 11th, 2010 at 6:47
am
Lunacy it would be.
But it is also to their
great credit that the Iranians have not made their own threats.
Everyone knows there are
3 WMD threats, Nuclear Biological and chemical. The scariest of which is
Biological.
Any attack done under
the threat of immediate biological retaliation would deter only the insane.
Watch out america home
of the insane, home of the leaders who want an 80% population reduction.
Corrupt
u.s. courts / judges: Their lifetime plush appointments should be abolished,
which corrupt entities are unheard of in productive societies as China, Japan,
etc.. Time to abolish these drags on society and eliminate their lifetime
stipends and corrupt costly bureaucracies.
Paul
Craig Roberts: Government Abandoned Vietnam POWs Kurt Nimmo
| John McCain worked overtime to make sure Vietnam POWs never came home. I
think the even bigger story vis-à-vis mccain is: http://www.albertpeia.com/heroenot.htm
‘Did you know that that so-called "american heroe" john mccain was
referred to by his fellow pows in Vietnam as something akin to the
"songbird" inasmuch as he was constantly "singing" to his
Viet-Cong captors to curry favor and better treatment? This has been documented
with authority by Colonel David Hackworth. The same violates military
code/protocol (other soldiers have been court-martialed for far less) click Here, Here. [ http://www.albertpeia.com/hackworth.htm
] But, you see, this covered up scenario, compromizing the false facade
of far less than a heroe, is exactly what a criminal (lie of a) nation as
america loves and encourages (get everyone's hands dirty so no-one dares to
rectify same, ie., bush, sr., clinton, bush, jr.). That is, "toe the
(corrupt, propagandized) line", become a criminal, or be exposed,
prosecuted, and/or ruined; and, hasn't anyone asked how "wall street"
has been "spared the spotlight" (and even was accorded protective
legislation from their criminal culpability) and focus of inquiry, attention,
and prosecution despite being the primary beneficiaries financial and otherwise
of these scams (you know the wall street motto, "churn and earn";
huge conflicts of interest if not outright fraud)…’
Coalition wants UK space lift-off [ Don’t make me laugh! ]
Israel’s
Nukes Out of the Shadows Israel faces unprecedented pressure to
abandon its official policy of “ambiguity” on its possession of nuclear weapons
as the international community meets at the United Nations in New York this
week to consider banning such arsenals from the Middle East.
NASA wants mission to bring Martian rocks to Earth (AP) Why?
They already have that and more:
Launch
of secret US space ship masks even more secret launch of new weapon
http://www.albertpeia.com/UFOetryWeNeverWentToTheMoonPNTV.wmv
[To the
Professor at the beginning of the course]
10-5-09
Postscript: Professor *****,
I felt compelled to thank you again for the add; not to curry your favor but
indeed to express profound thanks inasmuch as this is probably the last formal
course at a formal educational institution I'll ever take; and among the most
important. While I had bought at discount a library-discarded 1993 Anthropology
by Embers text, though meaning to read same never quite got to it. I am
astounded by the substantial amount of time involved in the evolutionary
process, not that I ever stopped to think about it, and one must come away with
the sense of 'and all that...for this?'. This course should be required
curriculum along with psychology, sociology, etc., but probably won't be owing
to what is, as it should be, a very humbling educational experience for any
member of the human race.
Regards,
Al Peia
Go to following
pages for above links:
http://www.albertpeia.com/currentopics2ndqtr10108.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm
You may post a comment on my blog on any topic: http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com
Mideast DIGEST (Washington
Post, July 19, 2010) netanayahu
admits on video he deceived US to destroy Oslo accord The contents of a
secretly recorded video threaten to gravely embarrass not only Benjamin
netanayahu, the Israeli prime minister but also the US administration of Barack
Obama.
22
Statistics That Prove The Middle Class Is Being Systematically Wiped Out Of
Existence In America The 22
statistics that you are about to read prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that the
middle class is being systematically wiped out of existence in America.
Congress
Passes Bankster Consolidation Bill Kurt
Nimmo | Financial reform is a three-card Monte scam, a confidence
game, a sleight of hand.
Wall
Street Is Laundering Drug Money And Getting Away With It
They still know how to
count. When you defraud for many billions, paying $550 million is chump change.
Goldman
to pay $550M to settle civil fraud charges (AP) Late stock rally
ahead of Goldman settlement news And the beat goes on!
Goldman Sachs beats the SEC– ‘Can Goldman Sachs Group Inc. wheel and deal or
what? The bank and brokerage's settlement with the Securities and Exchange
Commission on Thursday over the ill-fated Abacus deal may be its best trade
ever. At $550 million, it's not terribly
expensive. (GS 152.19, +6.97, +4.80%) hasn't agreed to restrict its practices
in any meaningful way. And poof! The firm can go back to work with its biggest
liability paid. Investors are ecstatic, Goldman shares rocketed 5.5% in
after-hours trading. No wonder Goldman called it "the right outcome for
our firm shareholders and clients." See
full story on the SEC settlement. For the regulators, the settlement is
more than just anticlimactic. Having bet all of its chips on reversing
embarrassing episodes such as the Bernie Madoff fiasco in an aggressive case
against Wall Street, the SEC whiffed.
Sure, the settlement is the biggest in the agency's history. Yes, the
SEC was able to squeeze Goldman on the settlement language and admit it was a
"mistake" not to have disclosed Paulson & Co.'s role in picking
the ill-fated securities. But come on. Goldman's net income last year was $12.1
billion. It could be even higher this year, given the robust first quarter
Goldman already has had. The settlement amounts to less than 5% of profits.
Maybe Goldman Sachs will even be able to write it off …’
‘This is
a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The
past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This
has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with
great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell
into.’
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a
Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012
Exports
are up, but where are the jobs? (Washington Post) Gone with the wind?
Sorry, I must have been thinking of million dollar movies. Seriously though, I
dare say everyone knows they were gone with that ‘bi-partisan executive /
congressional, think-tank, cia / nsa ill wind’ that others might refer to as
flatulence / passing gas, also called NAFTA, and also proudly hailed by the
foregoing as ‘strategy’. They’re gone, and never to return. Moreover, the
flipside of the exports, viz., imports, doesn’t bode well despite the fraudulent
wall street b*** s*** and their chorus of cheerleaders in washington. Some
might say self-delusion but I would say fraud covers all.
Companies
pile up cash but still won't add jobs (Washington Post) Unlike the public sector (which now exceeds private
sector in job gains and average compensation), the private sector attempts to
mesh hiring with economic supply / demand factors to maximize (shareholder) profits / wealth. Whatever
faults american companies have, with relatively few exceptions, this still
remains a very basic fundamental and building surplus (generating profits) is a
necessary precept to ensure survival and the capacity to be a good ‘citizen’ so
to speak. Then there’s reality:
Retail
sales down for 2nd consecutive month (Washington Post) Another ‘Come on’ day on fraudulent wall street! This
time it’s the unexpected downward revision to previous market-frothing retail
sales report and poor retail sales and plunge in mortgage applications and then
there’s the fed minutes pointing to extended bad economy. See Dave Fry’s (Daily)
summary below referencing in euphemistic fashion, yet another ongoing
manipulation also known as fraud. (Absent prosecutions, they’ll continue to do
what comes natural to frauds on wall street). Great opportunity to sell / take
profits since much worse, also called reality beyond the b*** s***, to come.
Then there’s also the bad but typical news; viz., retail sales, mortgage apps, economic outlook down, and yesterday
deficits, trade and budget, up.
NATION NEWS DIGEST: J.P. Morgan Chase
posts $4.8 billion profit (Washington Post) Yet another ‘Come on’ day on fraudulent wall street! This
time it’s the unexpected jump in continuing claims for unemployment, yesterday
the downward revision to previous market-frothing retail sales report and poor
retail sales and plunge in mortgage applications and then there’s the fed
minutes pointing to extended bad economy. Then there’s also now the ‘goldfinger
factor’ as in goldman’s middle finger. When you defraud for many billions, paying $550 million is
chump change. Goldman shares rocketed 5.5% in after-hours trading. No wonder
Goldman called it "the right outcome for our firm shareholders and
clients." (Absent
prosecutions, they’ll continue to do what comes natural to frauds on wall
street). Great opportunity to sell / take profits since much worse, also called
reality beyond the b*** s***, to come. Then there’s also the bad but typical
news; viz., previous retail sales, mortgage apps, economic outlook down, and
continuing claims for unemployment, deficits, trade / budget, up. (Just in:
7-16-10 Poll – only 43% of Americans approve of the Afganistan War, down from
52% in January, 2010)
Pearlstein: Can
regulation beget innovation? (Washington Post) I believe the more seminal question to be,
whether american companies, consistent with overall american decline and
corruption in so pervasive a fashion, are capable of or inclined toward real
innovation where enhancements to productivity, as well as greater profits, is
the consequence as desired. Certainly there has been ‘innovation’ by the wall
street frauds in the types of (ultimately worthless / fraudulent) paper and
high frequency trade programs enhancing their bottom-lines but little else;
and, those cutting edge ‘weapons of mass destruction’ produced or financed
(israel) by america are hardly productive in the economic sense but innovative
and profitable in the short run, and unwise and nation-bankrupting in the
longer run which we’re in right now!
Ex-Justice
official: CIA may have exceeded limits (Washington
Post) Wee doggies! This sounds like the
stuff that SNL Weekend Update ‘Really’ skits are made of; also fitting into
that list of queries as, ‘Is the Pope Catholic?’, ‘Do bears **** in the
woods?’, etc.. Come on! Wake up! This
is the kind of complicit cover-up / corruption found betwixt and between all
three branches of the u.s. government leading ineluctably to america’s current
decline and to which I’ve attested under penalty of perjury in the context of
the RICO litigation [ http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
].
Go to following pages for
above links:
http://www.albertpeia.com/currentopics2ndqtr10108.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm
You may post a comment on my
blog on any topic: http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com
For
now, spew of oil into Gulf of Mexico is halted (Washington Post) Well, thank God for small favors! I suggest they change that
name, ‘integrity test’; that’s doomed to end in failure. Yes, the brits are
back. They’ve clogged the well, with help from the ‘usual suspects’, the
americans. What precision! What teamwork!
Victory at last … riiiiight!
Then there is the well researched,
produced, and informative ‘ESOTERIC AGENDA’ which explains how we’ve gotten to
this forlorn point: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7052400717834950257#
Pentagon
warns Congress: Accounts running dry...(Drudgereport) Isn’t this headline
eerily reminiscent of that seminal B film by Roger Corman for Jack Nicholson,
‘Little Shop of Horrors’ (and remake) wherein a murderous vegetable / plant
clamors incessantly and insatiably, ‘feed me’. Eight U.S. service members killed in series
of attacks in southern Afghanistan (Washington Post, July 15,
2010) . This ridiculous war apparently for the sake of the american sponsored
reinvigorated heroin trade was a bad idea ab initio even if america wasn’t
defacto bankrupt.
‘This is
a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The
past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This
has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with
great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell
into.’
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a
Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012
Exports
are up, but where are the jobs? (Washington Post) Gone with the wind?
Sorry, I must have been thinking of million dollar movies. Seriously though, I
dare say everyone knows they were gone with that ‘bi-partisan executive /
congressional, think-tank, cia / nsa ill wind’ that others might refer to as
flatulence / passing gas, also called NAFTA, and also proudly hailed by the
foregoing as ‘strategy’. They’re gone, and never to return. Moreover, the
flipside of the exports, viz., imports, doesn’t bode well despite the
fraudulent wall street b*** s*** and their chorus of cheerleaders in
washington. Some might say self-delusion but I would say fraud covers all.
Companies
pile up cash but still won't add jobs (Washington Post) Unlike the public sector (which now exceeds private
sector in job gains and average compensation), the private sector attempts to
mesh hiring with economic supply / demand factors to maximize (shareholder) profits / wealth. Whatever
faults american companies have, with relatively few exceptions, this still
remains a very basic fundamental and building surplus (generating profits) is a
necessary precept to ensure survival and the capacity to be a good ‘citizen’ so
to speak. Then there’s reality:
Retail
sales down for 2nd consecutive month (Washington Post) Another ‘Come on’ day on fraudulent wall street! This
time it’s the unexpected downward revision to previous market-frothing retail
sales report and poor retail sales and plunge in mortgage applications and then
there’s the fed minutes pointing to extended bad economy. See Dave Fry’s
(Daily) summary below referencing in euphemistic fashion, yet another ongoing
manipulation also known as fraud. (Absent prosecutions, they’ll continue to do
what comes natural to frauds on wall street). Great opportunity to sell / take
profits since much worse, also called reality beyond the b*** s***, to come.
Then there’s also the bad but typical news; viz., retail sales, mortgage apps, economic outlook down, and yesterday
deficits, trade and budget, up.
WHICH WAY IS THE MARKET GOING NEXT? Gomes: ‘Having been a technical analyst for the first 10 years of my
investing career and a fundamental analyst for the past 15 years, I'm a
believer that technical patterns form as fundamentals unfold. As such, if you
know something about both, you can confirm both against each other. At this
point in time, I see a market that is technically reaching up toward its 200
day moving average (2,250 for the NASDAQ). I also see a 50 day moving average
that is threatening to drop below that 200 day moving average. Technically,
that is usually a very bad sign for the market. …
1) Economic indicators are dropping fast. For all intents and purposes, the
unemployment rate has not budged. Meanwhile, store shelves are stocked again,
PCs have been upgraded, etc. In other words, the pent-up demand that drove the
current rebound has almost run its course. What little remains no longer has
the power to drive the economy as it has over the past 18-months.
2)
"Follow the money". This is one of the most powerfully simple rules
on Wall Street. When money is flowing into the economy (i.e. via lower interest
rates or stimulus $$$), it's usually good for stocks..and vice versa. At
present, interest rates can't go much lower and the numerous stimulus programs
are losing effectiveness. This means that the money is no longer flowing in.
Worse yet, the money that was spent is not generally viewed as having been
money well spent. This does not bode well for a new stimulus package to come
anytime soon. In other words, money is not flowing in AND doesn't appear poised
to flow in anytime soon. In fact, state and municipal budgets are being cut
(money flowing OUT), while they raise local sales and income taxes (more money
flowing out). if federal taxes go up in 2011, as planned, even more money will
be flowing out. If you follow that, you should be flowing out of the stock
market. In short, barring a new stimulus package of other major money-flowing
event, I believe the economy slips back toward recession. Whether or not we
double-dip, we will almost certainty slip in that direction.
3)
If you follow the money in Europe, you will run for the hills. Europe has
decided to spin 180-degrees and shift from stimulus to austerity (if you don't
know the definition, look it up -- you'll likely hear it again -- and not just
from me). Effectively the opposite of stimulus, austerity will pull money away
from the European economies...which tells us to pull money away from stocks.
Worse yet, the effect of the EU/IMF bailout is already wearing off. Greek
yields are rising again and Portuguese credit ratings have been reduced.
4)
Global bubbles are bursting. Most notably, home sales in China and Canada are
starting to fall. Remember what happened when the U.S. housing market cracked?
That's right -- that's what started this mess in the first place.
5)
Politically, this period in time has a tendency to be bad for stocks. There is
uncertainty around the mid-year elections...and the market hates uncertainty.
Historically, the political picture doesn't become clear until October, at
which point we might expect a rally. Until then, expect the democrats to do
everything they can to retain their jobs in November. That means, "stop
pissing off the public"...and the public seems pretty pissed about how the
stimulus $$$ worked out for them (or more accurately, how it DIDN'T work out
for them). Thus, the political pressure will lean against further stimulus
until after the elections.
The
Bottom Line: I believe that the market will start to reflect these concerns
very soon. These are real fundamental concerns, which you can see reflected in
the technicals. As the market reaches the 50DMA and the 200DMA, it will be
inclined to retreat (barring some new, hugely positive news). Meanwhile, the
50DMA is 90%+ likely to cross below the 200DMA, giving the market more reason
to retrench. At some point, if the economy sinks far enough and if the market
drops far enough, political pressure for more stimulus will mount. At that
point, money will flow back into the economy. But that time is not now. Now,
money is flowing away like the tide...and so should your invested capital. I'm
not always right, but I do my best, based on the information before me. Based
on what I see right now, the most logical conclusion is to expect a long, ugly
summer for stocks. If I see information that changes that view, I'll be sure to
post an update to this post. Disclosure: I have short positions against the
market
No
help in sight for jobless (Washington Post) Well, from their perspective, they
really don’t feel your pain, and, it gives the frauds on wall street another
b*** s***, market frothing, false talking point in the form of ‘fewer
continuing claims for unemployment’. Then there’s that ‘ depression thing’.
The
big crash — America plunges into Depression Alexander
Cockburn
‘This is a global
depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up
move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has
been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with
great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell
into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn, pass the hot potato scam /
fraud as in prior crashes.’
Making
millions from mowing lawns [Sounds like a plan … riiiiight!]
(Washington Post) Value Added | Entrepreneur's reinvestment and diversification
… By Thomas Heath For the less entrepreneurial at heart
there’s always … flippin’ burgers … Washington,
D.C.: the nation's (burger) capital? (Washington Post) | ‘The Washington
area has emerged as fertile ground for ground chuck …’ Survey:
A satisfied federal workforce (Washington Post) Indeed they should be since
they’re totally expendable and a waste of taxpayer money.
Return of the No-Volume Melt-Up
Momentum Book Update: Trend Indicators Still Pointing Negative
Employment Picture Is Getting Bleaker
The Debt Party Is Over ‘… In a Ponzi scheme, the end comes
when the marginal investor decides to do something else with his money. Then
the house of cards stars falling apart. …’
DRUDGEREPORT: BOMBSHELL: Media Mogul Mort
Zuckerman Admits He Wrote One Of Obama's Speeches...
Were White House Officials Ready to Expose Collaboration?
Zuckerman Now: Obama Barely
Treading Water...
MICHELLE TELLS BLACKS TO 'INCREASE INTENSITY'
6 troops killed in Afghanistan...
DEM GOVS WARN: OBAMA SUIT VS. AZ IS 'TOXIC'
Debt panel has gloomy outlook...
Crisis Awaits World’s Banks as Trillions Come
Due...
G20 looks to Beijing to drive global growth …
They’re dreamin’! ...
They say ‘stocks oversold’. Preposterous!
Stocks have been overbought based on bad news or nothing at all, rallying on
‘not as bad as expected’. Even if that were true (I don’t believe anything they
say), who cares what the criminally insane frauds on wall street say what they
expect. It’s fundamentals, economic and financial, that ultimately count; but,
in the meantime, they’re like termites eating away at the nation’s foundation
with lightning fast computerized trade programs, all of which excessively huge
commission churn / earn revenues are a net negative for the economy in real
economic terms which is evidenced by unprecedented economic decline in all
productive sectors of the economy. This is a great opportunity to SELL / TAKE
PROFITS since this suckers rally to suck suckers in and keep them sucked in is
based on fraud and b*** s*** alone
and: ‘This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a
global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a
secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has
preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds
and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and
earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes.’
Technical Indicators Trigger Major
Sell Signal ‘…In summary, the bearish picture is confirmed by technical
indicators, a fundamental outlook, sentiment gauges, and valuations.Based on
what the market considered fair market valuations at prior historic market
bottoms, one can conclude how far stocks have to drop to reach the previously
attained level of fair valuations …’
: ‘On Friday July 9, 2010,
4:32 pm EDT It rarely ever happens, but when it does, it's serious. It
has only happened nine times in 10 years. We are referring to crossovers
between the 200-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs).Very few technical
indicators receive as much attention and media coverage as the 50 and 200-day
SMAs. The 200-day MA is perceived to be the dividing line between a stock that
is technically healthy and one that is not. It's a Big
Deal It's a big deal when a stock or an index drops
below the 200-day SMA. It's an even bigger deal when the 50-day SMA of any
given stock or index drops below the 200-day SMA. Such a crossover reflects
internal weakness - at least in theory. We'll discuss in a moment how the
actual numbers match up with theoretic assumptions. On June 22, 2010, the
S&P 500 (SNP: ^GSPC) and Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI) dropped below the 200-day
SMA. One day later the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) followed. On July 2, 2010, the
50-day SMA for the S&P (NYSEArca: SPY
- News)
dropped below the 200-day SMA. On July 6, the Dow Jones (NYSEArca: DIA
- News)
followed. As of today, the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: QQQQ
- News)
is barely hanging on. This sounds like a doomsday scenario. Does a rigid
analysis show that there is validity to 200-day and 50-day SMA crossover
buy/sell signals? Let's investigate.Crossovers - Lagging but Notable Many argue that
the SMA crossover is a delayed signal that emphasizes past weakness more than
it foreshadows future declines. To an extent, that is true. There are other
warning signals that point to a market turn long before the SMA does. For
example, on April 16, 2010, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted an
extremely low put/call ratio along with other bullish sentiment extremes. The
newsletter stated that 'the message conveyed by the composite bullishness is
unmistakably bearish. Once prices start to fall and investors get afraid of
incurring losses, the only option is to sell (due to the low put/call ratio).
Selling, results in more selling. This negative feedback loop usually results
in rapidly falling prices.' Prices did fall rapidly. The 22 trading days
following the April 26 high, erased eight months worth of gains. It took a 17%
drop for the SMA crossover to trigger a sell signal. When the ETF Profit
Strategy Newsletter issued a strong buy signal on March 2, 2009, it emphasized
that the developing rally would be a counter trend rally followed by a steep
decline and maintained this viewpoint even though prices kept rallying
relentlessly into the April highs. The SMA crossover now expresses the
possibility that even lower prices are ahead. 200 and
50-day SMA Crossovers - How Accurate? How about the
SMA crossover track record? Over the past 10 years, there have been nine
S&P SMA crossovers with five sell and four buy signals. We have yet to see
the results of the most recent sell signal. However, of the eight previous
signals, six were correct. Average gains following each signal were 14.91%.
$10,000 invested according to the buy/sell recommendations given right after
the first sell signal was triggered on October 30, 2000 at S&P 1,399, would
be worth $24,769 today. More Than just Crossovers If it sounds
too good to be true, it often is. As is the case with so many technical
indicators, crossovers need to be viewed in context with other indicators. In
other words, take a step back and evaluate how crossovers fit into the larger
picture. The larger picture (going back to 2007) reveals that trading volume
associated with market declines has been generally high, while trading volume
seen during rallies has been generally low; a bearish sign. Does
Wednesday's 3.13% Rally Invalidate the Sell Signal? On Wednesday,
the S&P rallied 32 points or 3.13%. The Dow rallied 2.82%, while the Nasdaq
rallied 3.13%. Does this mean the bull market is back on track?Since the
April market top, we've seen about a handful of 2-3% bounces. All associated
gains were erased within a matter of days. Chances are this time will be the
same. In fact, some sort of bounce was to be expected. On July 5, the ETF
Profit Strategy Newsletter stated 'considering that the S&P is butting
against the 100-week SMA, lower accelerations band, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
levels, round number resistance at 1,000, and weekly s1 at 994, there is a good
chance we will see some sort of a bounce develop from the 990 - 1,015 area.
Weekly r1 at 1,066 and pivot at 1,063 should serve as resistance.' This bounce
is in its later stages right now. What's Next? Let's revisit
the larger picture. Out of the nine leading industry sectors, seven have seen
their 50-day SMA cross below the 200-day SMA - financials (NYSEArca: XLF
- News),
technology (NYSEArca: XLK - News),
consumer staples (NYSEArca: XLP - News),
materials (NYSEArca: XLB - News),
utilities (NYSEArca: XLU - News),
energy (NYSEArca: XLE - News)
and healthcare (NYSEArca: XLV - News).
The consumer discretionary (NYSEArca: XLY
- News)
and industrial sector (NYSEArca: XLI - News)
are the only holdouts. All nine sectors, however, trade below their 200-day
SMA. Fundamentals, sentiment readings and valuations also point south. Some of
the fundamentals we have discussed in these pages are crafty accounting practices
designed to hide huge losses racked up by big financial institutions not yet
realized along with a continually bad unemployment picture. Sentiment
surrounding the April highs recorded extremes not seen since the 2000, 2007,
and even 1987 market top. There are multiple sentiment measures (such as the
VIX, cash allocation, put/call ratio, percentage of bullish/bearish advisors,
mutual fund cash levels, etc.). Each sentiment measure is one piece of
the puzzle. The more pieces of the puzzle you have, the clearer the picture
becomes. Leading up to the April highs, nearly all sentiment indicators peaked,
painting a complete bearish picture. In summary, the bearish picture is
confirmed by technical indicators, a fundamental outlook, sentiment gauges, and
valuations. Based on what the market considered fair market valuations at prior
historic market bottoms, one can conclude how far stocks have to drop to reach
the previously attained level of fair valuations. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
includes a detailed analysis of four valuation metrics with a track record of
accuracy, along with the implied target range for an ultimate market bottom.
This is provided in addition to its short, mid and long-term forecast. When the
market speaks, it behooves investors to listen. Fighting the tape has often
proven to be foolish, as the market will always have the final word.’
A
Market Forecast That Says ‘Take Cover’ New York Times
| We have entered a market decline of staggering proportions — perhaps the
biggest of the last 300 years.
Commercial Real Estate Loans Extend
and Pretend ‘…Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Commercial Real Estate Loans – Extend and Pretend Community banks have commercial real estate
loans where the borrower cannot make scheduled interest and principle payments.
More than 50% of all FDIC-insured institutions have loan pipelines that are 80%
to 100% funded. This is a measure of how banks are stuck with noncurrent
assets, but they are not classified that way. Instead, community banks are
giving borrowers more time to make their payments on the theory that it’s better to collect zero on some loans rather than
owning the real estate that collateralizes those loans. This concept is dubbed
“extend and pretend” hoping that the borrower will
eventual pay the loan back. Banks in this practice are known as “Zombie Banks” as
they can’t
lend, can’t lure in new investors, and wait for the FDIC to knock
on their doors on Friday afternoon. This strategy includes stretching out loan
maturities and allowing below-market interest rates to slow the number of
defaults and preserving the capital of banks that would be expended if property
had to become “Other Real Estate Owned.” As a result “Loans 30 to 89 Days in Arrears” and “Noncurrent”
loans are not growing as fast as they should be. The net result of these
practices masks the true toxicity of the Commercial Real Estate market. It’s not just the small banks that
are employing “extend and pretend”
tactics. I read that the Bank of America (BAC) has extended a large real estate loan in
Buckhead, Georgia the high-class area north of Atlanta. The loan finances the
development of a high-end shopping and residential project in 2007 and now
three years later the cranes are silent and the project is fenced in. The
banking regulators are helping the banks by allowing the lenders several ways
to restructure loans. While doing so the banks are allowed to keep these loans
as “performing” even with collateral values below the loan
amounts. Extend and pretend is also known as kicking the can down the road. It
seems to me that we have wasted billions if not trillions in stimulus money and
bank bailouts when this money could have been used to actually fund the
completion of these projects. Such a plan would have cost tax payers much less
and would have kept Americans working on Main Street USA, as finishing
incompleted real estate projects are clearly “shovel ready” projects.
According to Foresight Analytics banks hold $176 billion of CRE loans that
could be declared toxic. This is the tip of the iceberg as the FDIC Quarterly
Banking Profile shows $1.09 trillion in nonfarm nonresidential real estate
loans and $418 billion in Construction & Development loans on the books of
our nation’s banks. About two-thirds of
the CRE loans are maturing between now and 2014, and are underwater. Commercial
real estate property values are down 42% from the October 2007 peak. At the end
of the first quarter 9.1% are delinquent up from 7% a year earlier. Bankers
justify “extend and pretend” saying
that it’s better than calling the loan and dumping more property
on a depressed market. We need a stronger economy to entice new investors to
resurrect projects and to find new demand for competed offices, hotels, condos
etc which are the finished products of completed CRE projects. Without a strong
economic recovery these loans will eventually have to be written off down the
road. The problem is that while these loans are on hold banks can’t justify new
loans, which would be the engine of economic growth. And the beat goes on. Disclosure:
No positions’
Light Volume Temptations: Dave's Daily ‘Volume still matters, doesn't it?
It seems not as the financial media ignores our light volume market in favor of
writing bullish headlines. With hedge funds mostly sidelined according to
reports posted here yesterday, the primary buyers must be trading desks on Wall
Street and a handful of algo traders. It's tempting to come off the sidelines
and join the fun but perhaps it's just the trap they're laying for you. A
headline at Reuters read this afternoon: "Weaker Economic Views Equals
Stronger 3-Year Note Sale". So, if equity markets are forward-looking one
must wonder what these few buyers are seeing beyond a short-term trade.
Headline writers say its strong earnings growth that will prop markets coupled
with rosy outlooks. That would have to be the case otherwise this is just a
sucker's rally. As stated, volume was holiday-like light (40% below average)
making it really easy for the machines to take over trading, and so they did
... ‘
DRUDGEREPORT:
Evans-Pritchard:
It's Really Starting to Feel Like 1932 [Depression] ...
Dow Repeats Great Depression
Pattern...
Investors
fear risk of regional defaults...
Obama:
'The great jobs killer'...
Turkey, a leader
of nations, wants war criminal israel apology, israel rejects demand ...
Inventory Cycle Has Run Its Course Harrison – ‘… This is the scenario I have been predicting for
months now.
David Rosenberg says the
ISM leads jobs. And, the latest jobs
numbers were weak.
I would be nonplused about the recent ISM data if it
weren’t for the column highlighted in red. Notice how the momentum for
everything is slowing. Not just the overall index, but new orders, production
and employment …’
DRUDGEREPORT: TORN
ON FOURTH OF JULY: OBAMA DIVIDES NATION...
Great
Republic in parlous state -- politically, economically...
YEAR
9: Petraeus in Afghanistan warns of tough mission...
'We are in this
to win' … Win what? The fact of america’s defacto bankruptcy and being there IS
failure no matter what they ultimately call this debacle ...
Illinois
Stops Paying Its Bills...
Facing
'outright disaster' amid budget crisis...
Turn On, Tune In...Nah, Just Drop Out … Discouraged workers at a new
cycle high And small wonder. The median unemployment duration went to a new
all-time high (since the 1940s, anyway, when that series begins) and shows no
signs of slowing its ascent …
(Chart, source Bloomberg)…
NY
Times’ Krugman: We Are Entering The Third Depression Recessions are
common; depressions are rare. [Correction: we’re already in a depression].
JUNE UNEMPLOYMENT 9.5%... 125,000 JOBS
LOST...
Rate
dips as 652,000 give up search...
Depressing...
[That’s why they’re called depressions (just kidding … but no laughing matter)
… At this rate, with all those lost jobs and jobseekers no longer seeking
those lost jobs that aren’t there, by their calculations (9.5% the bright spot
… riiiiight!) we should be at full employment very soon … you can’t make this
stuff up … really!].
Ron
Paul: 114 Flip Flop on Audit The Fed Causing Bill to Fail 229 – 198 Ron
Paul’s attempt to audit the Federal Reserve, which was previously co-sponsored
by 320 members of the House (HR 1207), failed by a vote of 229-198. All
Republicans voted in favor of the measure with 23 Democrats crossing the aisle
to vote with Republicans. 122 co-sponsors of HR 1207, all Democrats, jumped
ship and voted against the measure. The Future of Audit the
Fed Congressman Ron Paul discusses the latest in the efforts to get a
full and complete audit of the Fed as well as the future of Fed transparency.
Like Congressman Paul says, we’ve accomplished a lot of good with our movement,
and there’s many reasons to be optimistic for the
future. Ditch
the Buck! Dollar demise ‘a matter of months’ A report by the United
Nations says the American dollar should be ditched as the main global reserve
currency. It said that the global financial meltdown has exposed systematic
weaknesses, one of which is the reliance on the
greenback. G-20
is Relying on China To Drive the World Economy … But China Isn’t Looking So Hot
The G-20 is apparently relying on China to drive the world economy.
Middle
class families face a triple whammy Edmund Conway |
Falling pensions, cuts and the banking crisis will impoverish many families.
The following are 50 random facts that show
just how dramatically america has changed….
#50) A new report released by the United
Nations is publicly calling for the establishment of a world
currency and none of the major news networks are even
covering it.
#49) Arnold Schwarzenegger has ordered California
State Controller John Chiang to reduce state worker pay for July to the federal
minimum allowed by law — $7.25 an hour for most
state workers.
#48) A police officer in Oklahoma recently tasered an 86-year-old disabled grandma in her bed
and stepped on her oxygen hose until she couldn’t breathe because they
considered her to be a “threat”.
#47) In early 2009, U.S. net national savings as a
percentage of GDP went negative for the first time since 1952,
and it has continued its downward trend since then.
#46) Corexit 9500 is so incredibly toxic that the
UK’s Marine Management Organization has completely banned it, so if there
was a major oil spill in the North Sea, BP would not be able to use it.
And yet BP has dumped over a million gallons of dispersants such as Corexit
9500 into the Gulf of Mexico.
#45) For the first time in U.S. history, more than 40 million Americans are on food stamps,
and the U.S. Department of Agriculture projects that number will go up to 43
million Americans in 2011.
#44) It has come out that one employee used a Federal
Emergency Management Agency credit card to buy $4,318 in “Happy
Birthday” gift cards. Two
other FEMA officials charged the cost of 360 golf umbrellas ($9,000) to the
taxpayers.
#43) Researchers at the State University of New York at
Buffalo received $389,000 from the U.S. government to pay
100 residents of Buffalo $45 each to record how much malt liquor they drink and how much
pot they smoke each day.
#42) The average duration of unemployment in the United States
has risen to an all-time high.
#41) The bottom 40 percent of all income earners in
the United States now collectively own less than 1 percent of the nation’s
wealth.
#40) In the U.S., the average federal worker now earns about twice as much as the average
worker in the private sector.
#39) Back in 1950 each retiree’s Social Security benefit
was paid for by 16 workers. Today, each retiree’s Social
Security benefit is paid for by approximately 3.3 workers.
By 2025 it is projected that there will be approximately two workers
for each retiree.
#38) According to a U.S. Treasury Department report to
Congress, the U.S. national debt will top $13.6 trillion this year and climb to an estimated $19.6 trillion by 2015.
#37) The federal government actually has the gall to ask for online
donations that will supposedly go towards paying off the national
debt.
#36) The Cactus Bug Project at the University Of
Florida was allocated $325,394 in economic stimulus funds to study the mating decisions of cactus bugs.
#35) A dinner cruise company in Chicago got nearly $1
million in economic stimulus funds to combat terrorism.
#34) It is being reported that a 6-year-old girl from Ohio is
on the “no fly” list maintained by U.S. Homeland Security.
#33) During the first quarter of 2010, the total number of
loans that are at least three months past due in the United States increased for the 16th consecutive quarter.
#32) According to a new report, Americans spend twice as much as residents of other
developed countries on healthcare, but get lower quality and far less
efficiency.
#31) Some experts are warning that the cost of bailing
out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could reach as high as $1
trillion.
#30) The FDA has announced that the offspring of cloned animals could be in our food
supply right now and that there is nothing that they can do about
it.
#29) In May, sales of new homes in the United States dropped to the lowest level ever
recorded.
#28) In 1950, the ratio of the average executive’s paycheck to
the average worker’s paycheck was about 30 to 1. Since the year 2000,
that ratio has ranged between 300 to 500 to one.
#27) Federal border officials recently said that Mexican
drug cartels have not only set up shop on American soil, they are
actually maintaining lookout bases in
strategic locations in the hills of southern Arizona.
#26) The U.S. government has declared some parts
of Arizona off limits to U.S. citizens because of
the threat of violence from Mexican drug smugglers.
#25) According to the credit card repayment calculator, if you
owe $6000 on a credit card with a 20 percent interest rate and only pay the
minimum payment each time, it will take you 54 years to pay off that credit
card. During those 54 years you will pay $26,168 in interest
rate charges in addition to the $6000 in principal that you are required to pay
back.
#24) According to prepared testimony by Goldman Sachs Chief
Operating Officer Gary Cohn, Goldman Sachs shorted roughly $615 million of
the collateralized debt obligations and residential mortgage-backed securities
the firm underwrote since late 2006.
#23) The six biggest banks in the United States now
possess assets equivalent to 60 percent of America’s gross national product.
#22) Four of the biggest U.S. banks (Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan
Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup) had a “perfect
quarter” with zero days of trading losses during the
first quarter of 2010.
#21) 1.41 million Americans filed for personal bankruptcy in
2009 – a 32 percent increase over 2008.
#20) BP has hired private security contractors
to keep the American people away from oil cleanup sites and nobody
seems to care.
#19) Barack Obama is calling for a “civilian expeditionary force”
to be sent to Afghanistan and Iraq to help overburdened military troops build
infrastructure.
#18) On June 18th, two Christians decided that they would
peacefully pass out copies of the gospel of John on a public sidewalk
outside a public Arab festival in Dearborn, Michigan and within 3 minutes
8 policemen surrounded them and placed them under arrest.
#17) It is being reported that sales of foreclosed homes in
Florida made up nearly 40 percent of all
home purchases in the first part of this year.
#16) During a recent interview with Larry King,
former first lady Laura Bush revealed to the world that she is actually in
favor of legalized gay marriage and a woman’s “right” to abortion.
#15) Scientists at Columbia University are warning that the
dose of radiation from the new full body security scanners going into airports
all over the United States could be up to 20 times higher
than originally estimated.
#14) 43 percent of Americans have less than $10,000
saved for retirement.
#13) The FDIC’s deposit insurance fund now has negative 20.7 billion dollars in it,
which represents a slight improvement from the end of 2009.
#12) The judge that BP is pushing for to hear an
estimated 200 lawsuits on the Gulf of Mexico oil disaster gets tens of thousands of dollars a
year in oil royalties and is paid travel expenses to industry
conferences.
#11) In recent years the U.S. government has spent $2.6
million tax dollars to study the drinking habits of Chinese prostitutes and
$400,000 tax dollars to pay researchers to cruise six bars in Buenos
Aires, Argentina to find out why gay men engage in risky sexual behavior
when drunk.
#10) U.S. officials say that more than three billion
dollars in cash (much of it aid money paid for by U.S. taxpayers)
has been stolen by corrupt officials in Afghanistan and flown out of Kabul
International Airport in recent years.
#9) According to a report by the U.S. Department of
Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics, the baggage check fees
collected by U.S. airlines shot up 33% in the first
quarter of 2010 to $769 million.
#8) Three California high school students are fighting for
their right to show their American patriotism - even on a Mexican
holiday - after they were forced to remove
their American flag T-shirts on Cinco de Mayo.
#7) Right now, interest on the U.S. national debt and spending
on entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare are somewhere in
the neighborhood of 10 to 15 percent of GDP. By 2080, they are
projected to eat up approximately 50 percent of GDP.
#6) The total of all government, corporate and consumer
debt in the United States is now about 360 percent of GDP.
#5) A 6-year-old girl was recently handcuffed and sent to
a mental facility after throwing temper tantrums at her
elementary school.
#4) In Florida, students have been arrested by police for things as
simple as bringing a plastic butter knife to school, throwing an eraser,
and drawing a picture of a gun.
#3) School officials in one town in Massachusetts are
refusing to allow students to recite the Pledge of Allegiance.
#2) According to one new study, approximately 21 percent
of children in the United States are living below the poverty line in 2010.
#1) Since 1973, more than 50 million babies have been
murdered in abortion facilities across the United States.
Drudgereport: JUNE UNEMPLOYMENT 9.5%... 125,000 JOBS
LOST...
Rate
dips as 652,000 give up search...
Depressing...
[That’s why they’re called depressions (just kidding … but no laughing matter)
… At this rate, with all those lost jobs and jobseekers no longer seeking
those lost jobs that aren’t there, by their calculations (9.5% the bright spot
… riiiiight!) we should be at full employment very soon … you can’t make this
stuff up … really!].
New
jobless claims rise [again]...
'Surprise'...
Pending
home sales plunge record 30%...
Weak economic
data suggest 'recovery' fizzling...
Fears
mount over slowing global demand...
UN
committee calls for dumping US dollar...
Six Months
to Go Until the Largest Tax Hikes in History...
From Ryan Ellis on Thursday, July 1, 2010 4:15 PM
Read more: http://www.atr.org/six-months-untilbr-largest-tax-hikes-a5171##ixzz0sVN5aBH3
In just six months, the largest tax hikes in the history of America
will take effect. They will hit families and small businesses in three great
waves on January 1, 2011:
First Wave: Expiration of 2001 and 2003 Tax Relief
In 2001 and 2003, the GOP Congress enacted several tax cuts for investors,
small business owners, and families. These will all expire on January 1,
2011:
Personal income tax rates will rise. The top income tax
rate will rise from 35 to 39.6 percent (this is also the rate at which
two-thirds of small business profits are taxed). The lowest rate will
rise from 10 to 15 percent. All the rates in between will also
rise. Itemized deductions and personal exemptions will again phase out,
which has the same mathematical effect as higher marginal tax rates. The
full list of marginal rate hikes is below:
- The 10% bracket rises to an expanded 15%
- The 25% bracket rises to 28%
- The 28% bracket rises to 31%
- The 33% bracket rises to 36%
- The 35% bracket rises to 39.6%
Higher taxes on marriage and family. The “marriage
penalty” (narrower tax brackets for married couples) will return from the first
dollar of income. The child tax credit will be cut in half from $1000 to
$500 per child. The standard deduction will no longer be doubled for
married couples relative to the single level. The dependent care and
adoption tax credits will be cut.
The return of the Death Tax. This year, there is no
death tax. For those dying on or after January 1 2011, there is a 55
percent top death tax rate on estates over $1 million. A person leaving
behind two homes and a retirement account could easily pass along a death tax
bill to their loved ones.
Higher tax rates on savers and investors. The capital
gains tax will rise from 15 percent this year to 20 percent in 2011. The
dividends tax will rise from 15 percent this year to 39.6 percent in
2011. These rates will rise another 3.8 percent in 2013.
Second Wave: Obamacare
There are over twenty new or higher taxes in Obamacare.
Several will first go into effect on January 1, 2011. They include:
The “Medicine Cabinet Tax” Thanks to Obamacare,
Americans will no longer be able to use health savings account (HSA), flexible
spending account (FSA), or health reimbursement (HRA) pre-tax dollars to
purchase non-prescription, over-the-counter medicines (except insulin).
The “Special Needs Kids Tax” This provision of Obamacare
imposes a cap on flexible spending accounts (FSAs) of $2500 (Currently, there
is no federal government limit). There is one group of FSA owners for
whom this new cap will be particularly cruel and onerous: parents of special
needs children. There are thousands of families with special needs
children in the United States, and many of them use FSAs to pay for special
needs education. Tuition rates at one leading school that teaches special
needs children in Washington, D.C. (National Child Research Center) can easily
exceed $14,000 per year. Under tax rules, FSA dollars can be used to pay
for this type of special needs education.
The HSA Withdrawal Tax Hike. This provision of Obamacare
increases the additional tax on non-medical early withdrawals from an HSA from
10 to 20 percent, disadvantaging them relative to IRAs and other tax-advantaged
accounts, which remain at 10 percent.
Third Wave: The Alternative Minimum Tax and Employer Tax Hikes
When Americans prepare to file their tax returns in January of 2011, they’ll be
in for a nasty surprise—the AMT won’t be held harmless, and many tax relief
provisions will have expired. The major items include:
The AMT will ensnare over 28 million families, up from 4 million last
year. According to the left-leaning Tax Policy Center, Congress’ failure to index
the AMT will lead to an explosion of AMT taxpaying families—rising from 4
million last year to 28.5 million. These families will have to calculate
their tax burdens twice, and pay taxes at the higher level. The AMT was
created in 1969 to ensnare a handful of taxpayers.
Small business expensing will be slashed and 50% expensing will
disappear. Small businesses can normally expense (rather than
slowly-deduct, or “depreciate”) equipment purchases up to $250,000. This
will be cut all the way down to $25,000. Larger businesses can expense
half of their purchases of equipment. In January of 2011, all of it will
have to be “depreciated.”
Taxes will be raised on all types of businesses. There
are literally scores of tax hikes on business that will take place. The
biggest is the loss of the “research and experimentation tax credit,” but there are many, many others. Combining
high marginal tax rates with the loss of this tax relief will cost jobs.
Tax Benefits for Education and Teaching Reduced. The
deduction for tuition and fees will not be available. Tax credits for
education will be limited. Teachers will no longer be able to deduct
classroom expenses. Coverdell Education Savings Accounts will be
cut. Employer-provided educational assistance is curtailed. The
student loan interest deduction will be disallowed for hundreds of thousands of
families.
Charitable Contributions from IRAs no longer allowed.
Under current law, a retired person with an IRA can contribute up to $100,000
per year directly to a charity from their IRA. This contribution also
counts toward an annual “required minimum distribution.” This ability
will no longer be there.
Read more: http://www.atr.org/six-months-untilbr-largest-tax-hikes-a5171##ixzz0sVMwYIhK
Investors get more gloomy & bearish We just had a very
difficult three month stretch for stocks. The S&P 500 fell 12% for
the quarter as did NASDAQ. The Shanghai Composite, China’s largest stock index, fell 22.9 in its local
currency, the yuan. The MSCI EAFE Index (foreign stocks) was down 14%.
Given the negative news, it is not surprising that investors are becoming more
bearish on stocks. This chart from Bespoke is based on the weekly Investors
Intelligence survey, which is getting close to levels from a year
ago. This is not close the peak we reached in early 2009, but the mood is
definitely more negative now: [chart]
Double Dip on the Way There were many events contributing to yesterday’s sell-off, and the
most likely culprits around the globe included more protests in Greece,
continued to concerns about Europe at large, and a downward revision (due to a
calculation error) of a leading economic indicator reading in China for the
month of April. But when it comes down to it, our own economy has yet to stand
on solid ground. While the recovery has continued to be shaky at best, recent
economic readings may be pointing to a double dip recession. Yesterday’s batch
of economic data seemed to be confirming that, as it brought a very dismal
reading on consumer confidence. June’s number stood at 52.9, far below
expectations of 62.5, and pointing to the consumers’ weariness about the job
market, and economic recovery in general. To go further, the previous reading
for May was revised downward, to 62.7 from 63.3. But the drop from May to June
really sends the message home: we’re not out of the woods yet. Earlier in the
week, we saw personal savings rates rise again, even while personal income
growth was meager. Americans, despite bringing home a little more cash,
continued to save more for the expected rainy days, and have yet to return to
their spendthrift ways. After yesterday’s precipitous selling, one would expect
to see a bit of a bounce in today’s trading session. That wasn’t the case,
however, as more weak data continued to dampen economic hopes. Today’s culprit
was the ADP private sector job report. The report stated that private payroll
gains were muted in June, with only 13,000 jobs added – far less than the
60,000 expected by economists. While May’s reading was revised slightly upwards
(to 57,000 hires from previously reported 55,000), today’s release does not
bode well for the much anticipated report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
due out on Friday. The non-farms payroll survey includes government workers and
has been inflated in recent months due to hiring for the 2010 Census … [chart]
…The June report, however, will reflect many of those workers being laid off in
the past month. In May, 431,000 jobs were added, but without support from
temporary government hires, economists are predicting job losses in June. Last week,
consensus estimates were for a loss of 70,000 jobs for the month. By yesterday,
those estimates were downgraded further, to 110,000. With the help of today’s
ADP report, expectations have continued to fall: economists now expect a
reading of negative 125,000 …
Barron's: Why the Market Will Keep Sliding Perry D- Barron's has a nice summary of what the future may hold in its
"Up and Down Wall Street." It summarizes as well as anything I've
read recently where we're likely headed. Bugging the (stock) market is the
increasingly obvious disparity between what the Street's incorrigible
cheerleaders see and prophesy and what's actually happening in the real
world...The double dip in housing may or may not be a template of what's in
store for the economy as a whole. But at the very least, it is a precursor of
other serious disappointments destined to feed the unease among the jittery
populace, which most emphatically includes investors.
It cites the predictions of SDK Captial's Dee Kessler:
--the massive
fiscal and monetary stimulus so liberally applied in 2008-2009 is starting to
run out of steam, with financial conditions tightening and leading economic
indicators pointing to a stretch of "anemic activity."
--"structural
headwinds," such as public and private deleveraging, higher taxes, greater
regulation and trade tensions.
--the
well-publicized woes of the European bloc, which accounts for 20% of the
world's GDP, as further evidence that the global economy, as he puts it, is
downshifting.
--The period of
easy comparisons in corporate results, he says, is coming to a close,
--"Although
the fundamentals in the U.S., Europe and Japan are worse," Dee spots
plenty of downside in emerging markets and doesn't fancy the notion of
decoupling.
--Come another
financial crisis, "the only policy response left will be to print
money." Which, of course, is what the gold bugs are counting on and why
bullion has glistened so brightly.
That about sums
up the outlook. The nice insight here is that anxiety over future economic
malaise -- and the additional money printing that'll be done to mask it --
might be a bigger factor than current inflationary pressure behind the surge in
gold prices.
In other words,
for the deflation-believers: deflation today? Perhaps. But big-time inflation
tomorrow.
Disclosure: No positions
NY
Times’ Krugman: We Are Entering The Third Depression Recessions are
common; depressions are rare. [Correction: we’re already in a depression].
Stocks: Once More Up, Then the Big Down Smith -The ingredients
for a classic head and shoulders topping pattern in the stock market are all
present. That suggests one more rise and then a massive grinding move down to
2009 lows. Officially, of course, everything's peachy with the economy.
Europe is fixed, China is booming, consumer confidence is rising, and we are
encouraged to resume our borrow and spend ways as the economy will not
"double-dip" into recession. The economy will not slide into another
recession, we are reassured constantly, even though roughly 80% of Americans
don't think we ever left the recessionary quicksand. Please see "Two
Scoop Special": Double-Dip Recession Guaranteed (May 21, 2010) for
more … Exactly what drivers are there for future gains in corporate profits? I
can't think of any, short of Martians landing and going on a shopping spree
with gold they manufacture in their spacecraft. On the negative side, we have:
1. The rising dollar is a huge headwind to sales in the
eurozone and elsewhere.
2. The low-hanging fruit of pushing the workforce to produce more output for
the same salary/wages have all been picked.
3. The inventory build-out is done for everything but the iPhone 4 and iPad.
4. So-called "fiscal austerity" (when did living within one's means
become some sort of brutual "austerity"? Talk abour propaganda!) in
the eurozone and U.S. states will remove tens of billions of dollars from
corporate sales.
5. Global overcapacity is alive and well. There is overcapacity in everything
manufactured except the iPhone 4, and that will be in glut by 2011 as well.
6. Uncle Sam is not distributing trillions of dollars quite as freely. There
seems to be some glimmer of awareness that there could be consequences of squandering
trillions of borrowed dollars on essentially worthless projects such as
occupying Iraq, inflating the housing market by socializing the entire mortgage
market, propping up Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA, etc.
7. Housing is rolling over now that the socialized mortgage market has been
tentatively allowed to go off life-support (it is wheezing and turning blue in
the face, not signs of vibrant health).
8. There is no pricing power anywhere once stimulus-goosed demand declines to
organic demand (flat to down) …
Momentum Book Update: The Market Is a Mess and the Long Bond Is
About to Break Out … Not only do us swing traders have to fight the urge
to chase price action up, but lay off the keyboard trying to catch falling
knives in the relative strength stocks which are holding up. If you tried to
buy support in your favorite names this week, you got your hands cut up. I’ll continue to rely on the understanding of my own
emotions as they have served me well. When we opened higher on Monday morning I
knew I was in the right place, cash, as the market was just way overbought. If
you bought most relative strength names last week, by the end of this week you
were well underwater. So where do we go from here? I’ve got no clue, the market is a mess, the charts are a mess, and the
long bond is about to break out. If that happens all bets are off, we could see
an “event”. If the smart money is lining up at the exits and moving into
bonds, there’s a good chance they see
something coming down the pipe …
SUITING UP FOR A POST-DOLLAR WORLD John Browne ‘The
global financial crisis is playing out like a slow-moving, highly predicable
stage play. In the current scene, Western governments are caught between the
demands of entitled welfare beneficiaries and the anxiety of bondholders who
fear they will be stuck with the bill. As the crisis reaches an apex, prime
ministers and presidents are forced into a Sophie's choice between social
unrest and bankruptcy. But with the "Club Med" economies set to fall
like dominoes, the US Treasury market is not yet acting the role we would have
anticipated. … The newspapers are now riddled with hints that foreign
governments have lost faith in Washington and the dollar reserve system. It
seems to me only natural that after a century of war, inflation, and socialism,
the next hundred years would belong to those people who hold the timeless
values of hard money and fiscal prudence. Unfortunately, our policymakers are
not those people.’
China's
Hu Jintao Says Group of 20 Must Coordinate to Consolidate Recovery Bloomberg … How about the G195
countries in the world collectively be considered in this task of
coordination owing to the abject failure of the so-called G20 which have in
lockstep coordination precipitated this global crisis including the war
mongering, war criminal acts of the so-called nato allies et als, particularly
the u.s., and as well the likes of war criminal nation israel which have never
avoided a contra-indicated, anti-recovery war / conflict they could contrive /
rationalize. The so-called G7, 8, 9, 20, etc., are a pathetic bunch of
incompetent vegetables / jokers / showmen / clowns.
The following is really the
quintessential question and issue, particularly in light of america’s defacto
bankruptcy and international law; but paramount humanitarian concerns alone
would militate against america’s current misguided course. Is Petraeus McChrystal’s Replacement or Obama’s? Paul
Craig Roberts | All of this drama is playing out despite the
continuing lack of any valid reason for the american invasions of Iraq and
Afghanistan.
3 SIGNS OF A SUCKER RALLY AFTER
EXAMINING TECHNICAL EVIDENCE, SENTIMENT INDICATORS AND VARIOUS VALUATION
METRICS, IT BECOMES OBVIOUS THAT THE RECENT BOUNCE PROVIDES A SELLING, NOT
BUYING OPPORTUNITY ...’
Reports:
IAF Landed at Saudi Base, US Troops near Iran Border Arutz
Sheva | The Israeli Air Force recently unloaded military equipment at
a Saudi Arabia base, a semi-official Iranian news agency claimed
Wednesday. It’s
time for the world to take a close look at the despotic, totalitarian regime
that presently exists for the grandeur and wealth of a few while hiding behind
Islam as they betray same and Muslims everywhere. The time has come for regime
change in Saudi Arabia to yield a nation of and for the people of Saudi Arabia
and the glory of Islam.
Connecticut
vegetable lieberman: China Can Shut Down The Internet, Why Can’t We … (great
logic from a totalitarian zionist)? Senator joe Zelig the zionist
israeli lieberman, co-author of a bill that would give President Obama a ‘kill
switch’ to shut down parts of the Internet, attempted to reassure CNN viewers
yesterday that concerns about the government regulating free speech on the web
were overblown, but he only stoked more alarm by citing China, a country that
censors all online dissent against the state, as the model to which American
should compare itself.
Soros
Says ‘We Have Just Entered Act II’ of Crisis Bloomberg
| Soros said the current situation in the world economy is “eerily” reminiscent
of the 1930s. Gerald
Celente: U.S. Financial Markets to Collapse by End of 2010 Infowars.com
| Gerald Celente is a renowned trend forecaster, publisher of the Trends
Journal, business consultant and author who makes predictions about the global
financial markets and other events of historical
importance. Jobless
Claims in U.S. Decreased Last Week to 456,000 Bloomberg |
More Americans than anticipated filed applications for unemployment benefits
last week.
Market Outlook: Bearish Background to Bullish Storyline Sean
Hannon: ‘The last two weekly market
commentaries have discussed how the underlying trend of the market is now
bearish and all rallies should be used to sell stocks and reduce risks. With
nearly every news outlet spouting the bullish storyline, these articles served
as an outline of a disciplined investment strategy. Those who followed the
outline have done well as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow), S&P 500,
and NASDAQ each declined over 5% since my initial warning. With the Dow still
stuck below the psychologically important 10,000 level and all three major U.S.
markets trading beneath their 200-day moving averages (MA), the bearish
backdrop is clear. Even if many are still looking for a rally, we should
understand that the primary trend is lower. Instead of focusing on how high
prices will rally, we should instead consider how much further prices can fall
…’
Greek
Default Seen by Almost 75% in Poll Doubtful About Trichet Global
investors have little confidence in Europe’s efforts to contain its debt crisis
or in European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, with 73 percent
calling a default by Greece likely. 12
Reasons Why The U.S. Housing Crash Is Far From Over Over the past
several months, many in the mainstream media have hailed the slight improvement
in the U.S. real estate market as a “housing
recovery”. US
Needs Austerity Too: Hedge Fund Strategist The United States will
have to adopt austerity measures similar to the ones taken in Europe, because
the problems faced are largely the same, Timothy Scala, macro-strategist at
Sophis Investments, told CNBC.com. Market
Analyst: ‘BP’s Not Going to Last as a Company More Than a Matter of Months’ We’ve
heard politicians, even conservative Republicans, suggest BP would be held
completely responsible for the devastation caused by the oil spill plaguing the
Gulf of Mexico, even if it means its very existence.
US
Media Terrified Of Mentioning USS Liberty Do you know that an
american naval vessel was attacked by israel in international waters, 43 years
ago today, resulting in the deaths of dozens of american sailors
Arab lawmaker on flotilla sparks outrage in israel (AP) -
An Israeli-Arab lawmaker's decision to join hundreds of activists on a
pro-Palestinian flotilla has elevated her from relative political obscurity,
transforming her into the poster child for the ...
DEBT
POISED TO OVERTAKE GDP Key
Indicators of a New Depression Neeraj Chaudhary |
Great Depression II developing into something far more devastating than its predecessor
You’re Being Decieved
Infowars.com | We’re heading over an economic cliff and
there’s nothing the government can or will do about it except
lie. The
Folly of Blindly Trusting the Government
‘What Does China Want?’ They want to speak to Rosanne
Rosanna Danna, of course! ‘Asian markets tumble on fears over Hungary’
…Riiiiight! Hungary’s the thing! … Rosanne Rosanna Danna, formerly of SNL fame
wanted in Asia to chime in with what her mama always used to say, ‘ It’s always
something ‘ . Of course, it matters little to the frauds on wall street what
the something is said to be since the reality is … ‘This is a global
depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. This was a
manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a
typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great
regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into.
This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud
as in prior crashes.’ ( It should be noted, and there
have been a multitude of other instances, that I’m getting substantial
‘attacks’ vis-à-vis my internet connection which has slowed dramatically these
posts. I don’t think the interference is either accidental nor just
coincidental but consistent with corrupt defacto bankrupt america’s critics of
which I am one and not alone in that regard – slowing, militating against the
devastating truth about america.) Europe
is Heading for a Depression Despite a nearly-$1 trillion rescue operation,
financial conditions in the eurozone continue to deteriorate. All the gauges of
market stress are edging upwards and credit default swaps (CDS) spreads have
widened to levels not seen since the weekend of the emergency
euro-summit. Key
Indicators of a New Depression With the mainstream media focusing on the
country’s leveling unemployment rate, improving retail sales, and nascent
housing recovery, one might think that the US government has successfully
navigated the economy through recession and growth has
returned. Get Ready for a Double Dip … but many warning
flags point towards significant deterioration in the U.S. and global economy
going forward and so I think that by the end of the year or early 2011, we
could very well be facing a new leg down in the world’s economic situation …
[I’d say too optimistic since, to reiterate: This
is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression.
This was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has
been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with
great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell
into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam /
fraud as in prior crashes.]
european
central banks intervened to shore up the ever more worthless euro, buying into
that fraudulent wall street b*** s*** story that that ‘s a good thing, rallying
stocks off their lows. It is amazing how dumb europe has become so quickly. An
exception is what I believe was Germany’s steps against derivatives, which market
according to a derivatives trader on the radio this day is a $40 trillion
market (missed his name). To reiterate as applicable to yet another fraudulent
scheme previously stated, said market is paper on paper moving around and
generating commissions at lightning computerized speed but adding no real value
in real economic terms; again, the analogy of termites eating away at the
(nation’s) foundation is apposite. As such, that money has to come from some
real place and hence, the ever more frequent and larger crashes we are seeing.
Don’t forget that the worthless paper from previous such fraudulent schemes now
marked to anything is still out there in a magnitude some have placed in the
hundreds of trillions.
The
Worst Money Supply Plunge Since The Depression Means A Double Dip Is Now A
‘Virtual Certainty’ The stock of U.S. money as measured by ‘M3′
money supply fell to $13.9 trillion from $14.2 trillion during the three months
ending in April. [ This is still an extraordinarily
high level but … I don’t buy it. I believe the printing presses have been working
overtime to pump out ever more worthless fiat currency and with the many
trillions of worthless fraudulent paper still out there and marked to anything.
I further believe the same is being surreptitiously used to supplant the
fraudulent paper, the consequences of which will be devastating, of course, as
is invariably so in depressions in any event. This scenario would also mean
huge fraud accomplis. ] Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level The bankster
operative who helped destroy Glass-Steagall is back. Larry Summers, Obama’s top
economic adviser, has told Congress to “grit its teeth” and approve a fresh
fiscal boost of $200 billion to keep growth on track, reports the Daily
Telegraph. Fiat
Money Supply Contracting at Great Depression Level Kurt Nimmo
| The Federal Reserve stopped publishing M3 figures back in 2006.
The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally
prosecuted, jailed, fined and disgorgement imposed. If that were so, they
wouldn’t be worrying about who wins / loses since those who fraudulently play,
invariably would (and should) pay. If they’re not prosecuted, everyone
loses.
POST MORTEM AND REVIEW Ricky:
A post mortem is in order. The elements of this
worldwide con game are remarkably simple, not complex at all. Apparently you
only need a few things to make a mockery of the entire global economic system,
and big banks garnered these few important things through “regulatory capture”:
1) Unregulated, unenforced rules (particularly for
derivatives)
2) license to “mark to model” (assign your own values to your assets)
3) ability to peg present value to irrational expected future returns (based on
unlimited, exponential growth)
4) infinite leverage (no effective requirements for reserve capital in
unregulated “shadow” markets)
5) massive size, so that the bank is "too big to fail"
6) non-transparency and non-accountability.
SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY!
THE FORECASTS:
Harry Dent, Jr.
Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012
Russell Napier is the author of the book “Anatomy of the Bear”, a professor at the
Edinburgh Business School and a consultant to CLSA Ltd. which is one of the top
research houses in Asia. Napier’s research indicates (and I paraphrase) that:
The S&P 500 will Decline to 400 by 2014 (the Dow 30 to 3800)
The S&P 500 will then undergo a major crash that will see U.S. equity
prices bottom at almost 50% below current levels (i.e. to 400 or less; the Dow
30 to 3800 or less) sometime around 2014 as Tobin’s “q” drops to 0.3 signaling
the end of the bear market, as it has done at the end of the four largest U.S.
market declines in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982.
U.S. Treasury Sales Collapse Leading to End of U.S. Dollar as Reserve Currency
Robert R. Prechter Jr. is author of a number of newsletters and books including
“Elliott Wave Principle” (1978) in which he predicted the super bull market of
the 1980s; “At the Crest of the Tidal Wave – A Forecast of the Great Bear
Market” (1995) in which he predicted a slow motion economic earthquake, brought
about by a great asset mania, that would register 11 on the financial Richter
scale causing a collapse of historic proportions; and “Conquer the Crash: You
can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression” (2002) in which he
described the economic cataclysm that we are just beginning to experience and
advised how to position one’s self financially during that period of time.
Depression is Imminent
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to
below 777 which was the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and
quite likely drop below 400 at one or more times during the bear market.
According to the Debt Clock:
• Total national debt: $13 trillion
• Debt per citizen: $42,026
• Debt per taxpayer: $117,982
• Total interest due: $1.9 trillion
• Interest per citizen: $2,211
Click here to see the Debt Clock, which is updated every
second.
• Total personal debt: $16.5 trillion
• Total mortgage debt: $14.1 trillion
• Total consumer debt: $2.45 trillion
• Personal debt per citizen: $53,483
• Debt held by foreign countries: $4.07
trillion
Go to following pages for
above links:
http://www.albertpeia.com/currentopics2ndqtr10108.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm
NATION NEWS DIGEST: J.P. Morgan Chase
posts $4.8 billion profit (Washington Post) Yet another ‘Come on’ day on fraudulent wall street! This
time it’s the unexpected jump in continuing claims for unemployment, yesterday
the downward revision to previous market-frothing retail sales report and poor
retail sales and plunge in mortgage applications and then there’s the fed
minutes pointing to extended bad economy. Then there’s also now the ‘goldfinger
factor’ as in goldman’s middle finger. When you defraud for many billions, paying $550 million is
chump change. Goldman shares rocketed 5.5% in after-hours trading. No wonder
Goldman called it "the right outcome for our firm shareholders and
clients." (Absent
prosecutions, they’ll continue to do what comes natural to frauds on wall
street). Great opportunity to sell / take profits since much worse, also called
reality beyond the b*** s***, to come. Then there’s also the bad but typical
news; viz., previous retail sales, mortgage apps, economic outlook down, and
continuing claims for unemployment, deficits, trade / budget, up. (Just in:
7-16-10 Poll – only 43% of Americans approve of the Afganistan War, down from
52% in January, 2010)
Pearlstein: Can
regulation beget innovation? (Washington Post) I believe the more seminal question to be,
whether american companies, consistent with overall american decline and
corruption in so pervasive a fashion, are capable of or inclined toward real
innovation where enhancements to productivity, as well as greater profits, is
the consequence as desired. Certainly there has been ‘innovation’ by the wall
street frauds in the types of (ultimately worthless / fraudulent) paper and high
frequency trade programs enhancing their bottom-lines but little else; and,
those cutting edge ‘weapons of mass destruction’ produced or financed (israel)
by america are hardly productive in the economic sense but innovative and
profitable in the short run, and unwise and nation-bankrupting in the longer
run which we’re in right now!
U.S.
to host Mideast peace talks (Washington Post) [ Call
me skeptical, cynical, etc., but somehow, u.s. juxtaposed with the words Mideast, peace strains credulity and just doesn’t ring true! ] While citing obstacles, White House expresses
hope that deal for Palestinian state may come soon.
Mideast DIGEST (Washington
Post) netanayahu
admits on video he deceived US to destroy Oslo accord The contents of a
secretly recorded video threaten to gravely embarrass not only Benjamin
netanayahu, the Israeli prime minister but also the US administration of Barack
Obama.
Ex-bank executives say their
dismissals caused panic withdrawals in Kabul (Post,
September 4, 2010; 8:52 AM) Karzai
urges Afghans not to panic as bank withdrawals accelerate (Post,
September 4, 2010; 3:11 AM) Suicide bombing kills at lesat 55
(Washington Post) Pakistan… After
Iraq war, uncertainty and seemingly mixed messages (Post,
September 2, 2010; 4:26 PM) [ What do these nations have in common? An
american presence … and from the foregoing it’s clear that this sounds like a
reporting job for Rosanne Rosanna Dana of SNL fame who has insight into such
scenarios as this ‘cause her mama always said …it’s always something! ]
U.S. to temper stance on
Afghanistan corruption (Washington Post) [ Sounds like a plan! After all, in
america’s own image of corruption, ie., bribery, heroin trade, etc., they’re
remolding Afghanistan replete with good old american style corruption and they
don’t want no noses pokin’ around to see america’s direct involvement in the
corruption, bribery, etc., and particularly the heroin trade, the american
raison d’etre there where the Taliban had all but eradicated the heroin
production / trade which surged thereafter with the american participation. The
American rationale seems to be, continue the corruption, etc., since to
eliminate same would help the Taliban. Riiiiight! My, oh my! You can’t make this stuff up.] Military officials conclude that effort to
drive out all but the most corrosive abuses in region would create a power
vacuum that Taliban could exploit.
CIA
acting on fear of terror attacks in Europe (Washington Post) [ Riiiiight!
That europe concern ... that same
concern that dragged them down the same american drain called perpetual,
nation-bankrupting war and blowback … Sounds like a plan! Those dumb Europeans!
]A sharply escalated campaign of CIA drone strikes in Pakistan is aimed in part
at al-Qaeda units suspected of planning terrorist attacks on targets in Europe.
7
U.S. troops die in Afghanistan violence (Washington
Post) [ I was discussing my opposition
to the contrived conflict in Iraq with a former air force man with high (top?)
security clearance from economic, geopolitical, and humanitarian perspectives;
and further, mentioned I had sought and gotten an appointment to West Point (I
was exempt) so I could go (Vietnam) as an officer rather than a grunt who were
being used as mere cannon fodder as now in Iraq (I also related the fact that I
am thankful, for a multitude of reasons, I changed my mind in light of then new
realities). He replied, quite seriously, that’s what they’re there for… No they
are not! But yes, that is their unequivocal, unforgiveable attitude beyond the
b*** s*** (look at cheney-5 deferments, bush-powderpuff duty courtesy of poppy
bush, clinton-draft dodger, wobama-never served, etc.. Just a destructive
waste!) The latest deaths bring
to 42 the number of American forces who have died this month in Afghanistan
after July's high of 66.
U.S.
officers weary and humbled (Washington Post) [ Indeed they should be; and, if they are able
to make sense of the last 2 decades particularly, they are certifiably true
american crazy, a condition in the u.s. and among it’s war mongering allies
that is found in self-destructive abundance. No joke! And then there are the
crimes / frauds. My position is also that such frauds as the disappearance of
the 360 tons of $100 bills, etc., and similar such frauds should come right off
the top, a direct reduction in their budget allocation particularly in light of
the defacto bankruptcy of the nation! ]
How Iraq vets make sense
of the last seven years will affect how america wields its military power [very
poorly indeed!] .
Paul
Craig Roberts: Government Abandoned Vietnam POWs Kurt Nimmo
| John McCain worked overtime to make sure Vietnam POWs never came home. I
think the even bigger story vis-à-vis mccain is: http://www.albertpeia.com/heroenot.htm
‘Did you know that that so-called "american heroe" john mccain was
referred to by his fellow pows in Vietnam as something akin to the
"songbird" inasmuch as he was constantly "singing" to his
Viet-Cong captors to curry favor and better treatment? This has been documented
with authority by Colonel David Hackworth. The same violates military
code/protocol (other soldiers have been court-martialed for far less) [ http://www.albertpeia.com/hackworth.htm
] But, you see, this covered up scenario, compromizing the false facade
of far less than a heroe, is exactly what a criminal (lie of a) nation as
america loves and encourages (get everyone's hands dirty so no-one dares to
rectify same, ie., bush, sr., clinton, bush, jr.). That is, "toe the
(corrupt, propagandized) line", become a criminal, or be exposed,
prosecuted, and/or ruined; and, hasn't anyone asked how "wall street"
has been "spared the spotlight" (and even was accorded protective
legislation from their criminal culpability) and focus of inquiry, attention,
and prosecution despite being the primary beneficiaries financial and otherwise
of these scams (you know the wall street motto, "churn and earn";
huge conflicts of interest if not outright fraud)
In
Iraq, a precarious time plagued by 'what ifs' (Washington
Post) [ How ‘bout in america, a
precarious time plagued by ‘what ifs’. What if bush et als hadn’t lied and
brought us this (these) illegal war(s). What if america hadn’t been bankrupted
by these pointless, self-defeating, and endless war policies. What if wobama
had delivered on his promises. What if … ] ‘…"The Americans are leaving,
and they didn't solve the problems," said Falah al-Naqib, a Sunni
legislator from the secular Iraqiya bloc. "So far they've failed and left Iraq
to other countries."…’
Fla.
pastor reconsiders plan on burning Korans (Washington Post) [ Sounds like a plan! Riiiiight!
] Amid disagreement over whether
deal was struck to move mosque near Ground Zero in exchange for calling off
burning, he now says he's "suspending" event.
Afghans
still see U.S. as bad guy [Riiiiight! Sounds like a plan … winning hearts and minds throughout the
world … great for exports also as such ‘won hearts and minds’ just love to buy
american.] American, NATO forces retain blame for civilian deaths despite spike
from insurgent violence.
U.S. looks to replicate Iraq
strategy, tactics (Washington Post ) [Oh right! Stick with that winning plan that worked so swimmingly (as
in drowning, in ie., debt, death, regional if not wordly anti-american
sentiment, etc.)]. In Kandahar, U.S. military
officials hope that a secure green zone, similar to the area in Baghdad, will
make it more difficult for Taliban insurgents to mount attacks to key buildings
in the Afghan city.
China
focuses on military might (Washington Post) [And the big difference here (between them
and defacto bankrupt america) is that ‘THEY CAN AFFORD IT’ and are not fighting
nation-bankrupting, anti-american-sentiment-creating wars all over the
place.] Nation is quickly modernizing
forces, extending influence deep into Pacific and Indian oceans.
Asian
sites' protection urged to save tigers (Washington
Post) [ This is clearly a noble task of the highest order that will
effect returns manyfold in the most positive sense for this increasing small
and troubled world. ] Just 42 sites across Asia, ranging from temperate forests
to tropical grasslands, are key to the survival of one of the world's most
iconic, and feared, wild cats - the tiger.
Military
toughest on Obama
(Washington Post) [ Almost hard to
believe since wobama foolishly, in contravention of campaign pledges and sound
judgment, has given the ‘sullen mullen militants’, also contrary to reason,
everything they’ve asked for and more; kind of a dumbya bush in disguise (but I
believe Woodward). Credit must be given to the ‘three officers - retired Lt.
Gen. Karl W. Eikenberry, retired Gen. James L. Jones and Lt. Gen. Douglas Lute,
the generals tapped for key positions that are traditionally filled by
civilians’, for their astute but ignored analysis and courage for standing up
to the darkly dysfunctional sullen mullenights who got their ill-found way.
Worthless dollars to donuts, President General Eisenhower would have called
this ill-fated debacle what it is; viz., a military industrial complex welfare
program doomed to failure, and, as for the heroin trade operatives, they’d all
be in the ‘hootsgow’. ) ] Bob Woodward's new book presents three generals in
civilian posts as his most skeptical critics.
Large
U.S. paramilitary presence in Afghanistan (Washington Post) [ Yeah … defacto bankrupt america
can really afford it … you know, to protect (and participate in) their
resurgent heroin trade to the benefit of the few ‘insiders’. ] Existence of
covert CIA teams, operating near the Pakistan border, is revealed in a new book
by Bob Woodward and documents released by WikiLeaks.
Mourning
in America (Washington Post) [ More
like, ‘mourning america’ while the rest of the world, in light of america’s
fabricated, illegal wars and war crimes is saying, ‘good mourning america’.]
Secretary of stand-up: Corny Washington
jokes? Robert Gates has a million of 'em. (Washington
Post) [ Could it be that’s because he
is a joke. Certainly his prognosticating continues to be … a joke. Aw, well,
what the heck, he’s an affable killer from the CIA and he has resuscitated the
heroin trade in Afghanistan, after all … eh … cut him some slack … riiiiight! ]
Obama reaches out to Iran with multiple
messages (Washington Post) [
This is closer to the correct approach, conciliatory, especially in light of
israel’s summarily and haughtily dismissing even the suggestion of or adherence
to the Non-Proliferation Treaty as not in israel’s interest, the war crimes,
violation of u.n. resolutions, flotilla murders, sinking of uss liberty/sailor
murders, etc.. However, truth be told, I was dismayed and somewhat disheartened
by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s confusion ( evincing a lack of understanding ) and
hope the same a slip of tongue and correct him as follows: ‘9-11 was that
‘pearl harbor event’ heralded and sought by the neo-cons (don’t forget, there
were orders for NORAD to stand down that day, symmetrical implosion, 9-11
truth, etc.) that facilitated a huge abrogation of rights (ie., Patriot Act,
etc.), a diversion of funds to the military industrial complex among other
lunatics, ie., cia, nsa, etc., but was not intended to nor did it help the u.s.
economy; but helping the militant zionist israeli regime was indeed a goal and the
cheers of the mossad agents on the banks of the Hudson in Weehawken, n.j.
viewing the burning towers are testament to the truth of that part of his
statement. ]
Obama
focuses on human rights
(Washington Post) At U.N., president
urges nations to "not stand idly by" when those values, democracy are
threatened [ except when defacto bankrupt america is doing the threatening,
which is usually the case, and if you’re white … ( UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE
BIAS AT JUSTICE... CIVIL RIGHTS PANEL TO PURSUE
FED PROBE IN BLACK PANTHER CASE... ex-Justice official quit over the handling of a voter
intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party accused his former
employer of instructing attorneys in the civil rights division to ignore cases
that involve black defendants and white victims US v. AZ... Cases
against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud Obama broke promises ) ] .
Alleged Afghan voting fraud to be investigated (Washington Post)
[ Geeh! They’re really taking
this americanization of Afghanistan really seriously, corruption in voting
among other governmental processes in the corrupt american way not excepted. ]
Afghanistan: Afghan ally vital to U.S.
despite graft allegations (Washington Post) [
Wow! As if we didn’t see that rationalization coming in light of the
fact that they learned their pervasively corrupt american lessons well; even
beyond america’s reinvigoration of the heroin trade which the Taliban had all
but eradicated. ]
A
quandary in Afghan corruption fight (Washington Post)
[ Come on! Is this some cruel
joke? Corruption, lawlessness is now synonomous with america. Afghans
question U.S.-style corruption/capitalism (Washington
Post) [ As indeed they should inasmuch as the same is neither capitalism nor
american style in the traditional sense referenced here. Defacto bankrupt, in
decline, and pervasively corrupt, meaningfully lawless america is a nation
unworthy of emulation! ] Kabul Bank became the pride of Afghanistan's
financial system by offering the conveniences and thrills of 21st-century
capitalism. But the scene outside the bank's headquarters Wednesday was far
from that modern ideal.U.S.-backed investigative teams have assembled evidence
of rampant corruption in Afghanistan, and the findings have had unintended
consequences.
Obama
focuses on human rights
(Washington Post) At U.N., president
urges nations to "not stand idly by" when those values, democracy are
threatened [ except when defacto bankrupt america is doing the threatening,
which is usually the case, and if you’re white … ( UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE
BIAS AT JUSTICE... CIVIL RIGHTS PANEL TO PURSUE
FED PROBE IN BLACK PANTHER CASE... ex-Justice official quit over the handling of a voter
intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party accused his former
employer of instructing attorneys in the civil rights division to ignore cases
that involve black defendants and white victims US v. AZ... Cases
against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud Obama broke promises ) ] .
U.S.
pressures Iranian officials (Washington Post) [ Boy! You just can’t
make this stuff up! Defacto bankrupt america (and their terrorist client state
israel) has engaged in war crimes, including murders of civilians, among other
literal killing, raping and plundering of nations, based literally in some
instances on lies, etc., violating international laws, u.n. resolutions (ie.,
242, 338, etc.), torture, kidnapping/torture and their talking about … Iran?
What parallel universe do they purport to reside in …? I’d say a suitable place
called he*l. ]The Obama administration is stepping up pressure on Iran with a
fresh set of penalties against eight senior officials for alleged human rights
abuses.
http://www.angelfire.com/indie/pearly/htmls/bush-carlyle.html ]
Investment giant says it will likely sell shares, which would require
the very private firm to be transparent. ] Defense Secretary
Robert M. Gates tours eastern Afghanistan, days before the Obama administration
is scheduled to complete a major review of its war strategy.
9-13-10
Steven M. Martinez,
Assistant Director In Charge
Federal Bureau of Investigation, USDOJ
11000 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 1700
Los Angeles, CA 90024
Dear Sir:
I enclose herewith 3
copies of the within DVD rom autorun disk (which will open in your computer’s
browser) as per your office’s request as made this day (the disk and contents
have been scanned by Avast, McAfee, and Norton which I’ve installed on my
computer to prevent viral attacks / infection and are without threat). I also
include a copy of the DVD as filed with the subject court as referenced therein
(which files are also included on the aforesaid 3 disks in a separate folder
named ‘112208opocoan’)…
The (civil) RICO action (as you’re aware, the
RICO Act is a criminal statute which provides a civil remedy, including treble
damages and attorney fees, as an incentive for private prosecution of said
claims probably owing to the fact that the USDOJ seems somewhat overwhelmed and
in need of such assistance given the seriousness and prevalence of said
violations of law which have a corrupting influence on the process, and which
corruption is pervasive). A grievance complaint against Coan was also filed
concurrently with the subject action and held in abeyance pending resolution of
the action which was illegally dismissed without any supporting law and in
contravention of the Order of The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge,
USDC, District Connecticut. The files below the horizontal rule are the
referenced documents as filed. (Owing to the damage to the financial interests
of both the U.S. and the District of Congresswoman Roybal-Allard, viz., Los
Angeles, the
Qui Tam provisions of the Federal False Claims Act probably would apply
and I would absent resolution seek to refer the within to a firm with expertise
in that area of the law with which I am not familiar).
The
document in 5 pages under penalty of perjury I was asked to forward to the FBI
office in New Haven is probably the best and most concise summary of the
case RICO
Summary to FBI Under Penalty of Perjury at Their Request (5 pages) [ http://albertpeia.com/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf (
http://albertpeia.com/fbiofficela91310 )
].
The correspondence I
received from Congresswoman by way of email attachment (apparent but typical
problem with my mail) along with my response thereto is included on the 3 disks
as fbicorrespondencereyes.htm . With regard to the
calls to the FBI’s LA and New Haven, CT offices: There was one call to the LA
office and I was referred to the Long Beach, CA office where I personally met
with FBI Agent Jeff Hayes to whom I gave probative evidentiary documents of the
money laundering which he confirmed as indicative of same (he was transferred
from said office within approximately a month of said meeting and his location
was not disclosed to me upon inquiry).
The matter was assigned to FBI Agent Ron Barndollar and we remained in
touch for in excess of a decade until he abruptly retired (our last
conversation prior to his retirement related to the case and parenthetically,
Rudy Giuliani whose father I stated had been an enforcer for the mob to which
he registered disbelief and requested I prove it, which I did – he served 12
years in prison, aggravated assault/manslaughter? – and no, there is no Chinese
wall of separation – Andrew Maloney’s the one that prosecuted gotti).
In contradistinction to
the statement in said correspondence, there is a plethora of information
including evidence supporting the claims set forth in the RICO
VERIFIED COMPLAINT (see infra). Such includes and as set forth
in the case, inter alia,
There
is applicable insurance / surety coverage and neither LA, nor creditors, nor I
should continue to have been damaged by this brazened corrupt and illegal
scenario, which should be resolved in accordance with the meaningful rules of
law apposite thereto.
Sincerely,
Albert
L. Peia
611
E. 5th Street, #404
Los
Angeles, CA 90013
(213)
******** (cell phone)
(213)
622-3745 (listed land line but there are unresolved problems with the line,
computer connection may be the reason but I hesitate to chance greater
non-performance / worsening by their ‘fix’ so cell phone best for contact).
• Audio:
Obama on terrorism tactics
A subtler tack to fight Afghan corruption?
(Washington Post) [ How
about a not so subtler tack to fight corruption starting right here in the u.s.
of a. where corruption and crime are pervasive and in fact, at the root of the
Afghanistan problems, from american reinvigorated heroin trade to bribery attendant
thereto to killing civilians, etc.. Defacto Bankrupt, Meaningfully Lawless,
War Criminal Nation america, the leader of nations … in crime:
Though having but 5% of the world’s population, america can
boast 76% of the world’s serial killers, followed by Europe with England/UK
then Germany leading the way for the eu [excerpt, 6 minute video, Serial
Killers: Real Life Hannibal Lechters http://www.albertpeia.com/realifeamericaserialkillers.mpg (as is consistent with crime generally,
see infra)]. Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive
(defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of
the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern
emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed
employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in
this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense
( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
) ]:
Rank |
|||
# 1 |
11,877,218 |
|
|
# 2 |
6,523,706 |
|
|
# 3 |
6,507,394 |
|
… ]
]
Airstrike probe finds poor coordination
between Pakistan, U.S. (Washington Post) [ Riiiiight! That
coordination thing underlying those unfriendly-fire incidents and civilian
deaths wherever american storm troopers happen to be … Eureka! And all this
while everyone was thinking that the same was just typical americana! ]
U.S.
funds go to Taliban, warlords, report finds (Washington
Post) [ Well, defacto bankrupt america can afford it; after all, how much more
defacto bankrupt can the nation get? Well, then again, despite the headline, a
lot of those hundreds of billions are finding their way back into american
hands, albeit dirty ones, like, for example the 360 tons of hundred dollar
bills flown into Iraq and still unaccounted for, etc.. ]Military has minimal
knowledge of and virtually no control over thousands of Afghans it pays to
guard operating bases, bipartisan report finds.
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a
Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010
and 2012). ]
Sunnis'
walkout mars political talks in Iraq (Washington Post) [ ‘It’s … be…ginning
to look a lot like Christmas, everywhere pervasively corrupt ‘little israel’
defacto bankrupt war criminal nation america goes (to that Christmas tune) …
Nothing like creating the anti-Christian sentiment through failed policy to
keep the war machine greased with money defacto bankrupt america doesn’t really
have (and aren’t the jews / israelis by definition ‘anti-Christ and hence
anti-Christian’) ] One chaotic parliamentary session reflects challenges facing
U.S. efforts to leave behind a stable Iraq with a representative
government. Attack
on Karachi police building kills 18 (Washington Post) About six militants
open fire on a criminal investigations office in the "red zone," a
highly secured area within Pakistan's largest city that houses the provincial
minister's residence and the U.S. Consulate. [Visiting U.S. senators praise Afghan
progress, say drawdown date is unrealistic (Washington Post) [ I’ll
tell you what’s unrealistic: having compromised senators ( ie., non-war-heroe
senile mccain, closet homosexual graham, incompetent zelig zionist lieberman, new
york sinkhole slug Kirsten Gillibrand chided As 'Schumer's (zionist)
Little Girl' ) stay the course with already failed pervasively corrupt,
defacto bankrupt american policy … Paul
Craig Roberts: Government Abandoned Vietnam POWs Kurt
Nimmo |
John McCain worked overtime to make sure Vietnam POWs never came home. I think
the even bigger story vis-à-vis mccain is: http://www.albertpeia.com/heroenot.htm
‘Did you know that that so-called "american heroe" john mccain was
referred to by his fellow pows in Vietnam as something akin to the
"songbird" inasmuch as he was constantly "singing" to his
Viet-Cong captors to curry favor and better treatment? This has been documented
with authority by Colonel David Hackworth. The same violates military
code/protocol (other soldiers have been court-martialed for far less) click Here, Here. [ http://www.albertpeia.com/hackworth.htm
] But, you see, this covered up scenario, compromizing the false facade
of far less than a heroe, is exactly what a criminal (lie of a) nation as
america loves and encourages (get everyone's hands dirty so no-one dares to
rectify same, ie., bush, sr., clinton, bush, jr.). That is, "toe the
(corrupt, propagandized) line", become a criminal, or be exposed,
prosecuted, and/or ruined; and, hasn't anyone asked how "wall street"
has been "spared the spotlight" (and even was accorded protective
legislation from their criminal culpability) and focus of inquiry, attention,
and prosecution despite being the primary beneficiaries financial and otherwise
of these scams (you know the wall street motto, "churn and earn";
huge conflicts of interest if not outright fraud)…’…Oh and they so can afford
it Deficit
panel proposes huge cuts (Washington Post) [ Cuts? I heard the corrupt, incompetent lawmakers were giving
themselves a raise. They actually deserve at least a 10% paycut and abolition
of those lifetime appointments / permanent corrupt bureaucracies. Nothing
succeeds like failure and crime in pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt
america! ] Lawmakers propose curbs on Social Security, cuts in spending and tax
hikes if long-term goals aren't met. ]
A
united goal: Saving the tiger (Washington Post) [
Clearly the wisdom of an historically great leader for the ages,
Vladimir V. Putin should be given great deference in all matters of global
concern. Having evolved from his youthful indiscretion as a novice KGB agent, a
hand dealt to him (by a soviet communist system) more than chosen, he has
reminded the world of the greatness that was, is, and forever will be Russia’s
and His! ] The tale of
the magnificent Siberian tiger, and its unfinished fight for survival, should
be a compelling one for the 500 conservationists and world leaders arriving for
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin's tiger summit this weekend.
Where
no man has gone before (Washington Post) [ Geeh! I can almost hear that
Star Trek Theme reverberate in my head, followed by a taste of Zarathustra …
After all, this is 2010 Odd but hardly a Space Odyssey. Indeed, merely
launching rockets is a far cry from Jupiter, and as for the moon; well, they
just didn’t get that done either … though the video was … okay. Launch
of secret US space ship masks even more secret launch of new weapon
Karzai
officials on CIA payroll (Washington Post)
[Riiiiight! The roster of allies … love of america breakin’ out all over
the region … boy oh boy … talk about creating your own boondoggles … well, they
can afford it. After all, it’s only taxpayer money and america’s already
defacto bankrupt. Then again, they have the requisite licenses; viz., to kill,
to steal, to distribute illegal drugs, etc.. Whew! Glad they didn’t act without
the requisite licensure.]
WikiLeaks founder could be charged under
Espionage Act (Washington Post) [
Drudgereport: Interpol issues
wanted notice for Julian Assange [ They just can’t take the truth! ] ...
US cuts access to files [
Think about it. Really think about it. Their policies are in the tank, along
with the nation and the rest of this world as a consequence. Don’t those so
detrimentally affected (everyone) have a right to know? I think in light of the
global frauds, contrived perpetual wars though defacto bankruptcy of this and
other nations, pervasive corruption and crime, failed policies domestically and
geo-politically while serving the very parochial interests of the
self-interested few, the answer is an unequivocal, YES! I believe that world
history will write Mr. Assange as a hero in the truest sense. He should be
given a medal; and, certainly, since mr. b*** s*** wobama undeservingly got a
‘nobel peace prize’ (what he does, not what he says, ie., Afghanistan, etc.),
who more than Julian Assange is deserving of that and more? Cover-up /
propaganda … thy name is fallen america.]...
WIKILECTURE: 'HILLARY SHOULD
RESIGN' ‘…Hillary Clinton, Julian Assange said, "should resign."
Speaking over Skype from an undisclosed location on Tuesday, the WikiLeaks
founder was replying to a question by TIME managing editor Richard Stengel over
the diplomatic-cable dump that Assange's organization loosed on the world this
past weekend. Stengel had said the U.S. Secretary of State was looking like
"the fall guy" in the ensuing controversy, and had asked whether her
firing or resignation was an outcome that Assange wanted. "I don't think
it would make much of a difference either way," Assange said. "But
she should resign if it can be shown that she was responsible for ordering U.S.
diplomatic figures to engage in espionage in the United Nations, in violation
of the international covenants to which the U.S. has signed up. Yes, she should
resign over that."…’
CITY ON EDGE: Cash-Strapped
Newark, new jersey Forced To Lay Off 14% Of Police Force... [ From decades old
(1978-1985) direct personal experience with newark, n.j., the police are the
absolute last cuts that can be afforded to be made. Indeed, while walking
through Military Park (a sliver of a “park” - more a pedestrian
thoroughfare/cement walks) in newark, new jersey on the way to the bank during
lunch hour, I heard the clearly audible screams/cries of what turned out to be
an old lady on the ground with blood streaming from her mouth. I ran toward the
sound of the cries, the source of which I could not see because there were so
many people in and about this thoroughfare so as to block any vision of the
source of the cries. When I came to the woman, on the ground, blood streaming
from her mouth, I asked what happened, to which she responded she had been hit
in the mouth and knocked to the ground, her purse stolen/put inside her
shopping bag, and she pointed out the criminal casually now walking across the
main street. Nobody stopped to help her, many having passed her by. I slammed
the thug to the ground so hard that, in light of all the blood and confusion
(limbic system / adrenalin flow) I thought I had been stabbed (the blood was
from his elbows hitting the pavement so hard - no one helped / a crowd gathered
/ an undercover cop happened along). When I testified at the Grand Jury
Proceeding I made sure his threat on my life was set forth in prima facie
fashion so as to maximize the DA’s position with both felonies ( he went to
prison – pled out ). The other case I wrote about here ( This was included on
my website in the Psychology discussion of ‘bystander effect’ / diffusion of
responsibility. ) - Having had occasion to have run down a mugger in newark,
n.j. who apparent had followed a girl from the bank on her way to the bursar to
pay tuition, though in pretty good shape, I was astounded by how totally
exhausting such a pursuit was, how much like rubber my arms were when I traded
punches with the perpetrator, and truth be told, if I had a flashlight on my
belt, I have little doubt that I would have probably used it to subdue the
perp. The girl was not that seriously injured, did get her pocketbook and
tuition back, and the criminal went to jail. The other thing about such a
pursuit that amazed me was that no one else assisted the girl or me despite
being in a position to do so). (Other newark / new jersey and new york, n.y.
metro, viz., ie., connecticut, and of course, d.c., d.c. metro, viz., ie.,
virginia experience … corrupt federal judges as maryanne trump barry, sam
alito, shiff, matz (california), hall, underhill, dorsey, etc.. Defacto
bankrupt america’s so-called system is pervasively corrupt and broken (AP) Abolish the corrupt, costly, economically
wasteful lifetime extravagantly appointed federal courts - see RICO case http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) ]
]
Wall
Street Is Laundering Drug Money And Getting Away With It Zach
Carter, … etc. … Drudgereport:
CLASSIFIED NO MORE: USA RACES
TO LIMIT WIKILEAKS DAMAGE [Publishing
the Wikileaks is the right thing to do; after all, one cannot possibly look to
even one rationally correct strategy, domestically, globally, geopolitically
that would justify continued hiding/cover-up of the failed strategies, their
genesis, flawed rationale, etc., which has cost this nation and the world
dearly] ...
WIKILEAKS: We've been hit
with 'mass distributed denial of service attack'...
MOST EMBARRASSING, DAMAGING
DISCLOSURE IN DECADES...
SENATORS: PROSECUTE THE
LEAKERS!
NYT
EXPLAINS: THE DECISION TO PUBLISH … [The NYT clearly did the right thing to
publish; after all, one cannot possibly look to even one rationally correct
strategy, domestically, globally, geopolitically that would justify continued
hiding/cover-up of the failed strategies, their genesis, flawed rationale,
etc., which has cost this nation and the world dearly]...
SKorea
says sound of artillery heard on island...
US,
SKorea start major naval drills...
China
issues warning...
DHS
SEIZES DOMAIN NAMES...
EU
Debt Crisis Escalates...
6
American soldiers killed in Afghanistan...
Next Debt
Crisis 'May Start in Washington'...
WIKILEAKS
TURNS ON OBAMA! … [ Like who hasn’t, and for good reason! Publishing
the Wikileaks is the right thing to do; after all, one cannot possibly look to
even one rationally correct strategy, domestically, globally, geopolitically
that would justify continued hiding/cover-up of the failed strategies, their
genesis, flawed rationale, etc., which has cost this nation and the world
dearly] ]
] Authorities are
investigating whether Julian Assange violated criminal laws, including possible
charges under the Espionage Act, sources say.
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has
been censored In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Did Google Block “Barry
Soetoro” Search Term? Screenshots obtained by a Prison Planet reader suggest
that Google may have moved to de-list “Barry Soetoro” as a popular search term
shortly after it rose to the top of the Google Trends charts after yesterday’s
effort by radio talk show host Alex Jones to focus attention on Barack Obama’s
real name.
Bush's
fantasy world (Washington Post) [
I’m frankly surprised to see cohen bite the hand that feeds zionists(
ie., dumbya bush, et als). After all, I’ve never seen cohen not like a pro
israel policy, regardless of the cost
to this nation in blood, sweat, tears, and geopolitical and general decline,
particulary economic / financial; nor like a pro-american policy that
negatively impacts israel. I think america particularly, and the rest of the
world has sacrificed enough for the greedy, blood-thirsty, lawless israelis. ] Cohen: WikiLeaks shows the unreality of a presidential
memoir. Jeffrey
Smith: Fighting
leaks
Palestinians
counter israeli offer on settlements (Washington Post) [ The Palestinians, unlike the lawless israelis are
cognizant of u.n. resolutions, prior accords, international law, etc., in their
proposal. ]
Israeli
prime minister offers conditional settlements freeze (Washington Post )
[ Déjà vu all over again? Now why is there a familiar ring to this story
… maybe ‘cause of the ‘been there done that ‘ reality. It’s really quite
incredible since israel’s in violation of u.n. resolutions (242, 338, etc.),
international law, nuclear proliferation treaty, a drain on the the u.s.
globally / domestically, etc.. The u.s. / international community should impose
a resolution. ]
Israel: Defining 'Jewish state': For
many, term has different meanings (Washington Post) [
Well ain’t that the truth! As per Forrestal’s warning (infra), it meant new
york, pennsylvania, and California … for the greedy zionist israelis it means
anything they want it to mean, borders, laws, u.n. resolutions, civilized
behavior, etc., be damned! ]
Clinton
wraps up Israeli, Palestinian talks - for now (Washington
Post) [ That’s a wrap (Hollywood speak), or just a lot of crap (reality). Well
some celluloid facetime (hill, I said celluloid, not cellulite), appearance of
doing something (not). U.S.
urges Arab states to drop israel nuclear treaty demand Reuters Oooooh! Wow! Sounds like a plan! … For world
conflagration … Another step toward nuclear prone middle east … israel should
be exempt because ….. ‘US –
Israel’s partner in crime, not a referee’ … You really can’t make this stuff up; the preposterous s***
coming out of america! ]The U.S. envoy to the UN atomic watchdog urged Arab
states to withdraw a resolution calling on Israel to sign an anti-nuclear arms
treaty, warning it would send a negative signal to Middle East peace
talks. Israelis,
Palestinians already broaching tough topics in talks, envoy says (Washington
Post) ‘US –
Israel’s partner in crime, not a referee’ (Infowars.com) Israeli and Palestinian leaders are holding a new
round of direct talks. Bombshell:
Barack Obama conclusively outed as CIA creation Wayne Madsen |
Investigative journalist Wayne Madsen has discovered CIA files that document
the agency’s connections to the lives of Barack Obama and his mother, father,
grandmother, and stepfather. ]
RAMALLAH, WEST BANK - Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton on Thursday
wrapped up three days of intense Middle East diplomacy that produced good
atmospherics but no sign that an impasse over Israeli settlement construction
has been resolved. (Alex Brandon - AP)
A
resurgent Syria alarms u.s., israel (Washington Post) [ Tell me! What doesn’t alarm these two
paranoid, zionist neo-nazi regimes of oppression, suppression, aggression, and
regression. If they were individuals, they’d undoubtedly be diagnosed as psychopaths,
sociopaths totally ignorant of the rights of others, laws, civilized behavior
as israel pads her illegal nuke arsenals with american supplied weaponry /
support while expecting all other nations to ‘role over and die’. Bipolar /
manic / depressive, the ups and downs are increasingly difficult for even
americans to follow. Obssessive / compulsive thy names are zionist israel /
america. Projection / displacement regarding their own illegal acts, war
crimes, etc.; what they distinguished from what they do … dissociative identity
disorder, dissociative fugue? Yes … the u.s. and israel are the world’s
lunatics, sorely in need of therapy! ]
Syria's fresh interference in Lebanon and its increasingly sophisticated
weapons shipments to Hezbollah have alarm officials and prompt Israel's
military to consider striking a Syrian weapons depot.
Accountability is unclear in israeli probe of flotilla
raid (Washington
Post) Oh, come on! An israeli probe of an
israeli massacre of civilians. Time for israel to pay; for illegal nukes, for
violations of international law, for continued violations of u.n. resolutions,
for provocations as pretexts to sabotage peace talks, and on and on ad nauseum.
Why does america among other nations feel compelled to sacrifice themselves for
the sake of a global criminal nation with an insatiable greed and blood-thirst
as israel?
The
israeli Spin-Machine in Overdrive: dershowitz to the Rescue? Armed
Israeli commandos, the elite of the elites, rappelled to the deck of a Turkish
ship carrying humanitarian relief supplies to the 1.5 million prisoners in the
Gaza concentration camp.
CIA
Stooge Awlaki Prime Suspect Behind Plane Bomb Plot Paul Joseph
Watson | Evidence screams “false flag” as authorities seek to crush
resistance against invasive airport security measures, while Obama exploits
event for domestic and geopolitical gain.
Did
Obama Order British Authorities To Find Non-Existent Ink Bomb? After having
examined the suspicious ink toner device for six hours and found it to be a
dud, bomb experts at East Midlands Airport only reversed their decision after
being ordered to re-inspect the package by US authorities following President
Obama’s Friday afternoon speech in which he claimed that the devices did in
fact contain explosives.
Toner Bomb Plot
Used to Empower CIA In addition to adding new urgency and a fresh dose of
hysteria to the flagging war on manufactured terror, the toner bomb plot has
provided an excuse to rationalize the global reach of the CIA.
Yemen
Insists No Packages Sent 48 Hours Prior to Toner Bomb Hysteria Kurt
Nimmo | As usual, the government has not done a very good job of
making the latest al-CIA-duh plot credible.
Obama
Issues Fake Terror Alert On Eve Of Elections As we predicted on four
separate occasions would happen, the Obama White House has deliberately
contrived a fake terror scare on the eve of the mid-term elections in an effort
to subdue the rampaging political appetite for anti-big government candidates
that threatens to sweep aside establishment incumbents next week. ]
Obama:
Suspicious packages are a 'credible terrorist threat' (Washington
Post) [October suprprise anyone …
still October … trick or treat … there are skeptics … then there are some
who’ll say … just jewish synagogues, no big deal … nothing of strategic value …
healthy dose of skepticism … Obama
‘Fake Terror’ Alert Story Hits #1 on Google Aaron Dykes
Infowars.com October 29, 2010 Efforts to warn the population that the Obama
Administration, like the Bush Administration
before it, has engaged in issuing fake terror alerts has gone viral,
with the search term “fake terror” reaching #1 on
Google Trends. It is yet another success in the Infowar, initiated
on the Alex Jones Show. As we are just days out from the 2010 midterm
elections, voters must realize that the establishment has willfully engaged in
hyping up false alerts to scare the public into believing that we are under
siege by potential terrorist acts at all moments. Various “officials” have been
warning that an attack is likely to occur for weeks now, and it is no surprise
to see the Obama Administration trying to use the fear to its advantage. Recall
that Obama advisor and former top Clinton official, Robert Shapiro, alluded to the
idea that only a terror attack could save Obama’s presidency earlier
in the year.
“The bottom line here is that Americans don’t believe in President
Obama’s leadership,” said Shapiro, adding, “He has to find some way between now
and November of demonstrating that he is a leader who can command confidence
and, short of a 9/11 event or an Oklahoma City bombing, I can’t think of how he
could do that.”
Read the original story by Paul Joseph Watson here, as it has been updated.
GOP's
Palin paradox (Washington Post) Parker: She's too powerful to ignore, and too (fill-in-the-blank) to take
seriously. [ Say it! … Dumb! … Everybody knows it! … Cher even said it! … I
believe that this further evinces the leadership vacuum in america and is a
testament to how unequivocally far america has fallen. Powerful? I don’t think so! ]
Sarah
Palin: The Next Teleprompter Reader in the White House [ Not gonna’ happen
… she’s just too embarrassingly dumb …
and all that fake macho / zionist b*** s***
… unless her gal o’donnel casts a spell … which is a whole new ball game
… witches … really … how ‘bout dumb *******s …. she’s really dumb enough to
press the button. ] ? Kurt Nimmo | In 2008, Tea Party Sarah trekked to New York to
kiss Henry Kissinger’s ring.
Sarah
Palin: The Next Teleprompter Reader in the White House? [ Not gonna’ happen … she’s just too embarrassingly dumb … unless her gal o’donnel casts a spell …
which is a whole new ball game … witches … really … how ‘bout dumb *******s ...
and all that fake macho / zionist b*** s*** ... she’s really dumb enough to
press the button. ] It looks like the establishment is grooming Tea Party Sarah
for a run. She says as much in the Newsmax interview below.
Palin
calls reporters 'impotent' and 'limp' (Washington Post) [ I must reiterate,
she, palin’s so embarrassingly dumb! She truly is the joke that keeps on
giving! I really mean it! I mean, what next? ] The former Alaska governor
weighed in herself: "Those who are impotent and limp and gutless and they
go on their anonymous -- sources that are anonymous -- and impotent, limp and
gutless reporters take anonymous sources and cite them as being factual
references," she told Sean Hannity. "It just slays me ( this could be
a somewhat Freudian slip as she contemplates the uselessness of sexually
non-interested reporters while she meant lays and I think her supposed /
purported attractiveness / desirability is vastly overstated; but, this makes
for great SNL skits; you know, those reporters not man enough to service her
) because it's so absolutely clear what
the state of yellow journalism is today that they would take these anonymous
sources as fact."
The
power of Palin's touch
(Washington Post) [Wow! Talk about stupid. Murphy could have eliminated the
middle-man (person) and appeared on SNL himself; maybe reprising a familiar
(Eddie) Murphy role as Gumby 2, Son of Gumby. The only thing funnier is palin
herself. She’s so embarrassingly dumb!] .Endorsement lifts little-known
candidate in Md., giving the struggling campaign a "megaphone."
Comment on:
5 Myths about Sarah Palin at 10/14/2010 9:39 PM EDT
Test
yourself to find out how much you know about Sarah Palin. Take the quiz and
after, check out The Washington Post's 'Five Myths about Palin.' (Washington
Post) [ Geeh! I scoured the quiz / 5 myths and nowhere did I see the obvious
myth; viz., that she really has a brain. Maybe gal pal pol protégé o’donnell
can help her out … a few mysterious words, a slimy newt (gingrich) in a caldron
of b*** s*** , and voila … a new reality which is what o’donnell herself is
sorely in need of … O'Donnell, evolved Milbank: She didn't mention mice with
human brains in Wednesday's debate. But she said silly things. Stromberg:
O'Donnell is... wow The CNN host, moderating the long awaited Delaware
senatorial debate Wednesday night, was trying to get the Republican nominee to
talk about her 1998 statement on the Bill Maher show that "evolution is a
myth."
"Do you believe evolution is a myth?" Blitzer asked.
"I believe that the local ... " O'Donnell began, then started anew.
"I was talking about what a local school taught, and that should be
taught, that should be decided on the local community."
"Do you believe evolution is a myth?" the moderator repeated.
"Local schools should make that decision."
"What do you believe?"
"What I believe is irrelevant."
"Why is it irrelevant? Voters want to know."
"What I will support in Washington, D.C. is the ability of the local
school system to decide what is taught in their classrooms," O'Donnell
repeated.
The answer, though, was obvious: Of course she believes in evolution; she is a
product of evolution herself. She has evolved from a very odd woman who spoke
about the evils of masturbation and of mice with fully functioning human brains
and of her experience in sorcery (but she didn't join a coven!). …
"After standing on the
stage, after the debates, I made it very plain, we will not have an
all-volunteer army. And yet, this week—we will have an all-volunteer army. Let
me restate that."—Daytona Beach, Fla., Oct. 16, 2004
"The CIA laid out several
scenarios and said life could be lousy, life could be OK, life could be
better, and they were just guessing as to what the conditions might be
like."—New York, Sept. 21, 2004
"Free societies are hopeful
societies. And free societies will be allies against these hateful few who have
no conscience, who kill at the whim of a hat."—Washington, D.C., Sept. 17,
2004 (Thanks to David Stanford.)
"That's why I went to the
Congress last September and proposed fundamental—supplemental funding, which is
money for armor and body parts and ammunition and fuel."—Erie, Pa., Sept.
4, 2004
"Too many good docs are
getting out of the business. Too many OB/GYN's aren't able to practice their
love with women all across the country."—Sept. 6, 2004, Poplar Bluff, Mo.
"They've seen me make
decisions, they've seen me under trying times, they've seen me weep, they've
seen me laugh, they've seen me hug. And they know who I am, and I believe
they're comfortable with the fact that they know I'm not going to shift
principles or shift positions based upon polls and focus groups."
—Interview with USA Today, Aug. 27, 2004
"I didn't join the
International Criminal Court because I don't want to put our troops in the
hands of prosecutors from other nations. Look, if somebody has done some wrong
in our military, we'll take care of it. We got plenty of capability of dealing
with justice."—Niceville, Fla., Aug. 10, 2004
"So community colleges are
accessible, they're available, they're affordable, and their curriculums don't
get stuck. In other words, if there's a need for a certain kind of worker, I
presume your curriculums evolved over time."—Niceville, Fla., Aug. 10,
2004
"Tribal sovereignty means
that, it's sovereign. You're a—you've been given sovereignty, and you're viewed
as a sovereign entity. And, therefore, the relationship between the federal
government and tribes is one between sovereign entities."—Washington,
D.C., Aug. 6, 2004
"Secondly, the tactics of
our—as you know, we don't have relationships with Iran. I mean, that's—ever
since the late '70s, we have no contacts with them, and we've totally
sanctioned them. In other words, there's no sanctions—you can't—we're out of
sanctions."—Annandale, Va., Aug. 9, 2004
"I mean, if you've ever
been a governor of a state, you understand the vast potential of broadband
technology, you understand how hard it is to make sure that physics, for
example, is taught in every classroom in the state. It's difficult to do. It's,
like, cost-prohibitive."—Washington, D.C., June 24, 2004 (Thanks to
Michael Shively.)
"Our enemies are innovative
and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm
our country and our people, and neither do we."—Washington, D.C., Aug. 5,
2004 (Thanks to Alicia Butler.)
"And I am an optimistic
person. I guess if you want to try to find something to be pessimistic about,
you can find it, no matter how hard you look, you know?"—Washington, D.C.,
June 15, 2004 (Thanks to Robert Irwin.)
"[A] free Iraq is essential
to our respective securities."—Washington, D.C., June 1, 2004
"I want to thank my friend,
Sen. Bill Frist, for joining us today. … He married a Texas girl, I want you to
know. (Laughter.) Karyn is with us. A West Texas girl, just like
me."—Nashville, Tenn., May 27, 2004
"I'm honored to shake the
hand of a brave Iraqi citizen who had his hand cut off by Saddam
Hussein."—Washington, D.C., May 25, 2004
"This has been tough weeks
in that country."—Washington, D.C., April 13, 2004 (Thanks to David
Huddleston.)
"[B]y the way, we rank 10th
amongst the industrialized world in broadband technology and its availability.
That's not good enough for America. Tenth is 10 spots too low as far as I'm
concerned."—Minneapolis, Minn., April 26, 2004
"My job is to, like, think
beyond the immediate."—Washington, D.C., April 21, 2004
"This is historic times."—New
York, N.Y., April 20, 2004
"Obviously, I pray every
day there's less casualty."—Fort Hood, Texas, April 11, 2004 (Thanks to
Pat Gallagher.)
"Recession means that
people's incomes, at the employer level, are going down, basically, relative to
costs, people are getting laid off."—Washington, D.C., Feb. 19, 2004
(Thanks to Garry Trudeau.)
"God loves you, and I love
you. And you can count on both of us as a powerful message that people who
wonder about their future can hear."—Los Angeles, Calif., March 3, 2004
(Thanks to Tanny Bear.)
"The march to war affected
the people's confidence. It's hard to make investment. See, if you're a small
business owner or a large business owner and you're thinking about investing,
you've got to be optimistic when you invest. Except when you're marching to
war, it's not a very optimistic thought, is it? In other words, it's the
opposite of optimistic when you're thinking you're going to war."
—Springfield, Mo., Feb. 9, 2004 (Thanks to Garry Trudeau.)
"See, one of the interesting
things in the Oval Office—I love to bring people into the Oval Office—right
around the corner from here—and say, this is where I office, but I want you to
know the office is always bigger than the person."—Washington, D.C., Jan.
29, 2004 (Thanks to Michael Shively.)
"More Muslims have died at
the hands of killers than—I say more Muslims—a lot of Muslims have died—I don't
know the exact count—at Istanbul. Look at these different places around the
world where there's been tremendous death and destruction because killers
kill."—Washington, D.C., Jan. 29, 2004 (Thanks to Michael Shively.)
"In an economic recession,
I'd rather that in order to get out of this recession, that the people be
spending their money, not the government trying to figure out how to spend the
people's money."—Tampa, Fla., Feb. 16, 2004
"King Abdullah of Jordan,
the King of Morocco, I mean, there's a series of places—Qatar, Oman—I mean,
places that are developing—Bahrain—they're all developing the habits of free
societies."—Washington, D.C., Jan. 29, 2004
"But the true strength of
America is found in the hearts and souls of people like Travis, people who are
willing to love their neighbor, just like they would like to love
themselves."—Springfield, Mo., Feb. 9, 2004 (Thanks to George Dupper.)
"My views are one that
speaks to freedom."—Washington, D.C., Jan. 29, 2004
"In my judgment, when the
United States says there will be serious consequences, and if there isn't
serious consequences, it creates adverse consequences."
"There is no such thing
necessarily in a dictatorial regime of iron-clad absolutely solid
evidence. The evidence I had was the best possible evidence that he had a
weapon."
"The recession started upon
my arrival. t could have been—some say February, some say March, some speculate
maybe earlier it started—but nevertheless, it happened as we showed up here.
The attacks on our country affected our economy. Corporate scandals affected
the confidence of people and therefore affected the economy. My decision on
Iraq, this kind of march to war, affected the economy."—Meet the Press,
Feb. 8, 2004
"I was a prisoner too, but
for bad reasons."—To Argentine President Nestor Kirchner, on being told
that all but one of the Argentine delegates to a summit meeting were imprisoned
during the military dictatorship, Monterrey, Mexico, Jan. 13, 2004
"[T]he illiteracy level of
our children are appalling."—Washington, D.C., Jan. 23, 2004 (Thanks to
Lewell Gunter.)
"Just remember it's the
birds that's supposed to suffer, not the hunter."—Advising quail hunter
and New Mexico Sen. Pete Domenici, Roswell, N.M., Jan. 22, 2004
"One of the most meaningful
things that's happened to me since I've been the governor—the
president—governor—president. Oops. Ex-governor. I went to Bethesda Naval
Hospital to give a fellow a Purple Heart, and at the same moment I watched
him—get a Purple Heart for action in Iraq—and at that same—right after I gave
him the Purple Heart, he was sworn in as a citizen of the United States—a
Mexican citizen, now a United States citizen."—Washington, D.C., Jan. 9,
2004
"I want to thank the
astronauts who are with us, the courageous spacial entrepreneurs who set such a
wonderful example for the young of our country."—Washington, D.C., Jan.
14, 2004
"And if you're interested
in the quality of education and you're paying attention to what you hear at
Laclede, why don't you volunteer? Why don't you mentor a child how to
read?"—St. Louis, Mo., Jan. 5, 2004
"So thank you for reminding
me about the importance of being a good mom and a great volunteer as
well."—St. Louis, Jan. 5, 2004
"I want to remind you all
that in order to fight and win the war, it requires an expenditure of money
that is commiserate with keeping a promise to our troops to make sure that
they're well-paid, well-trained, well-equipped."
"See, without the tax relief package, there would have been a deficit, but
there wouldn't have been the commiserate—not 'commiserate'—the kick to our
economy that occurred as a result of the tax relief."
"[T]he best way to find these terrorists who hide in holes is to get
people coming forth to describe the location of the hole, is to give clues and
data."
"Justice was being delivered to a man who defied that gift from the
Almighty to the people of Iraq."—Washington, D.C., Dec. 15, 2003
"[A]s you know, these are
open forums, you're able to come and listen to what I have to
say."—Washington, D.C., Oct. 28, 2003
"The ambassador and the
general were briefing me on the—the vast majority of Iraqis want to live in a
peaceful, free world. And we will find these people and we will bring them to
justice."—Washington, D.C., Oct. 27, 2003 (Thanks to Robert Hack.)
"[W]hether they be
Christian, Jew, or Muslim, or Hindu, people have heard the universal call to
love a neighbor just like they'd like to be called
themselves."—Washington, Oct. 8, 2003 (Thanks to George Dupper.)
"See, free nations are
peaceful nations. Free nations don't attack each other. Free nations don't
develop weapons of mass destruction."—Milwaukee, Wis., Oct. 3, 2003
"[W]e've had leaks out of
the administrative branch, had leaks out of the legislative branch, and out of
the executive branch and the legislative branch, and I've spoken out
consistently against them, and I want to know who the leakers
are."—Chicago, Sept. 30, 2003
"Washington is a town where
there's all kinds of allegations. You've heard much of the allegations. And if
people have got solid information, please come forward with it. And that would
be people inside the information who are the so-called anonymous sources, or people
outside the information—outside the administration."—Chicago, Sept. 30,
2003 (Thanks to Andy Bowers.)
"[T]hat's just the nature
of democracy. Sometimes pure politics enters into the rhetoric."—Crawford,
Texas, Aug. 8, 2003 (Thanks to Inigo Thomas.)
"I glance at the headlines
just to kind of get a flavor for what's moving. I rarely read the stories, and
get briefed by people who are probably read the news
themselves."—Washington, D.C., Sept. 21, 2003
"I'm so pleased to be able
to say hello to Bill Scranton. He's one of the great Pennsylvania
political families."—Drexel Hill, Penn., Sept. 15, 2003 (Thanks to Michael
Shively.)
"We had a good Cabinet
meeting, talked about a lot of issues. Secretary of State and Defense brought
us up to date about our desires to spread freedom and peace around the
world."—Washington, D.C., Aug. 1, 2003 (Thanks to Tanny Bear.)
"Security is the essential
roadblock to achieving the road map to peace."—Washington, D.C., July 25,
2003
"Our country puts $1
billion a year up to help feed the hungry. And we're by far the most generous
nation in the world when it comes to that, and I'm proud to report that. This
isn't a contest of who's the most generous. I'm just telling you as an aside.
We're generous. We shouldn't be bragging about it. But we are. We're very
generous."—Washington, D.C., July 16, 2003
"It's very interesting when
you think about it, the slaves who left here to go to America, because of their
steadfast and their religion and their belief in freedom, helped change America."—Dakar,
Senegal, July 8, 2003 (Thanks to Michael Shively.)
"My answer is bring them
on."—On Iraqi militants attacking U.S. forces, Washington, D.C., July 3,
2003
"You've also got to measure
in order to begin to effect change that's just more—when there's more than
talk, there's just actual—a paradigm shift."—Washington, D.C., July 1,
2003 (Thanks to Michael Shively.)
"I urge the leaders in
Europe and around the world to take swift, decisive action against terror
groups such as Hamas, to cut off their funding, and to support—cut funding and
support, as the United States has done."—Washington, D.C., June 25, 2003
"Iran would be dangerous if
they have a nuclear weapon."—Washington, D.C., June 18, 2003
"Now, there are some who
would like to rewrite history—revisionist historians is what I like to call
them."—Elizabeth, N.J., June 16, 2003
"I am determined to keep
the process on the road to peace."—Washington, D.C., June 10, 2003 (Thanks
to Tanny Bear.)
"The true strength of
America happens when a neighbor loves a neighbor just like they'd like to be
loved themselves."—Elizabeth, N.J., June 16, 2003
"We are making steadfast
progress."—Washington, D.C., June 9, 2003 (Thanks to Michael Shively.)
"I'm the master of low
expectations."—Aboard Air Force One, June 4, 2003
"I'm also not very
analytical. You know I don't spend a lot of time thinking about myself, about
why I do things."—Aboard Air Force One, June 4, 2003
"I recently met with the
finance minister of the Palestinian Authority, was very impressed by his grasp
of finances."—Washington, D.C., May 29, 2003
"Oftentimes, we live in a
processed world—you know, people focus on the process and not
results."—Washington, D.C., May 29, 2003
"I've got very good
relations with President Mubarak and Crown Prince Abdallah and the King of
Jordan, Gulf Coast countries."—Washington, D.C., May 29, 2003
"All up and down the
different aspects of our society, we had meaningful discussions. Not only in
the Cabinet Room, but prior to this and after this day, our secretaries, respective
secretaries, will continue to interact to create the conditions necessary for
prosperity to reign."—Washington, D.C., May 19, 2003
"First, let me make it very
clear, poor people aren't necessarily killers. Just because you happen to be
not rich doesn't mean you're willing to kill."—Washington, D.C., May 19,
2003
"We ended the rule of one
of history's worst tyrants, and in so doing, we not only freed the American
people, we made our own people more secure."—Crawford, Texas, May 3, 2003
(Thanks to Tony Marciniec.)
"We've had a great weekend
here in the Land of the Enchanted."—Albuquerque, N.M., May 12, 2003 (New
Mexico's state nickname is "Land of Enchantment.")
"We've got hundreds of
sites to exploit, looking for the chemical and biological weapons that we know
Saddam Hussein had prior to our entrance into Iraq."—Santa Clara, Calif.,
May 2, 2003 (Thanks to Michael Shively.)
"I think war is a dangerous
place."—Washington, D.C., May 7, 2003
"I don't bring God into my
life to—to, you know, kind of be a political person."—Interview with Tom
Brokaw aboard Air Force One, April 24, 2003
"You're free. And freedom
is beautiful. And, you know, it'll take time to restore chaos and order—order
out of chaos. But we will."—Washington, D.C., April 13, 2003
"Perhaps one way will be,
if we use military force, in the post-Saddam Iraq the U.N. will definitely need
to have a role. And that way it can begin to get its legs, legs of
responsibility back."—the Azores, Portugal, March 16, 2003
"I know there's a lot of
young ladies who are growing up wondering whether or not they can be champs.
And they see the championship teams from USC and University of Portland here,
girls who worked hard to get to where they are, and they're wondering about the
example they're setting. What is life choices about?"—Washington, D.C.,
Feb. 24, 2003
"Now, we talked to Joan
Hanover. She and her husband, George, were visiting with us. They are near
retirement—retiring—in the process of retiring, meaning they're very smart,
active, capable people who are retirement age and are
retiring."—Alexandria, Va., Feb. 12, 2003 (Thanks to Dennis Doubleday.)
"Columbia carried
in its payroll classroom experiments from some of our students in
America."—Bethesda, Md., Feb. 3, 2003
"And, most importantly,
Alma Powell, secretary of Colin Powell, is with us."—Washington, D.C.,
Jan. 30, 2003
"The war on terror involves
Saddam Hussein because of the nature of Saddam Hussein, the history of Saddam
Hussein, and his willingness to terrorize himself."—Grand Rapids, Mich.,
Jan. 29, 2003
"When Iraq is liberated,
you will be treated, tried, and persecuted as a war criminal."—Washington,
D.C., Jan. 22, 2003 (Thanks to Chad Conwell.)
"Many of the punditry—of
course, not you (laughter)—but other punditry were quick to say, no one is
going to follow the United States of America."—Washington, D.C., Jan. 21,
2003
"One year ago today, the
time for excuse-making has come to an end."—Washington, D.C., Jan. 8, 2003
"I think the American
people—I hope the American–I don't think, let me—I hope the American people
trust me."—Washington, D.C., Dec. 18, 2002
"The goals for this country
are peace in the world. And the goals for this country are a compassionate
American for every single citizen. That compassion is found in the hearts and
souls of the American citizens."—Washington, D.C., Dec. 19, 2002 (Thanks
to Michael Shively.)
"There's only one person
who hugs the mothers and the widows, the wives and the kids upon the death of
their loved one. Others hug but having committed the troops, I've got an
additional responsibility to hug and that's me and I know what it's
like."—Washington, D.C., Dec. 11, 2002
"In other words, I don't
think people ought to be compelled to make the decision which they think is
best for their family."—Washington, D.C., Dec. 11, 2002 (Thanks to
Stephanie Nichols.)
"Sometimes, Washington is
one of these towns where the person—people who think they've got the sharp
elbow is the most effective person." —New Orleans, Dec. 3, 2002 (Thanks to
Michael Shively.)
"The law I sign today
directs new funds and new focus to the task of collecting vital intelligence on
terrorist threats and on weapons of mass production."—Washington, D.C.,
Nov. 27, 2002
"These people don't have
tanks. They don't have ships. They hide in caves. They send suiciders
out."—Speaking about terrorists, Portsmouth, N.H., Nov. 1, 2002
"I know something about
being a government. And you've got a good one."—Stumping for Gov. Mike
Huckabee, Bentonville, Ark., Nov. 4, 2002
"I need to be able to move
the right people to the right place at the right time to protect you, and I'm
not going to accept a lousy bill out of the United Nations Senate."—South
Bend, Ind., Oct. 31, 2002
"John Thune has got a
common-sense vision for good forest policy. I look forward to working with him
in the United Nations Senate to preserve these national heritages."
"Any time we've got any
kind of inkling that somebody is thinking about doing something to an American
and something to our homeland, you've just got to know we're moving on it, to
protect the United Nations Constitution, and at the same time, we're protecting
you."—Aberdeen, S.D., same day (Thanks to George Dupper.)
"Let me tell you my
thoughts about tax relief. When your economy is kind of ooching along, it's
important to let people have more of their own money."—Boston, Oct. 4,
2002
"I was proud the other day
when both Republicans and Democrats stood with me in the Rose Garden to
announce their support for a clear statement of purpose: you disarm, or we
will."—Speaking about Saddam Hussein, Manchester, N.H., Oct. 5, 2002
(Thanks to George Dupper.)
"You see, the Senate wants
to take away some of the powers of the administrative branch."—Washington,
D.C., Sept. 19, 2002
"We need an energy bill
that encourages consumption."—Trenton, N.J., Sept. 23, 2002
"People say, how can I help
on this war against terror? How can I fight evil? You can do so by mentoring a
child; by going into a shut-in's house and say I love you."—Washington,
D.C., Sept. 19, 2002
"I'm plowed of the
leadership of Chuck Grassley and Greg Ganske and Jim Leach."—Davenport,
Iowa, Sept. 16, 2002
"There's an old saying in
Tennessee—I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee—that says, fool me once,
shame on—shame on you. Fool me—you can't get fooled again."—Nashville,
Tenn., Sept. 17, 2002
"There's no doubt in my
mind that we should allow the world worst leaders to hold America hostage, to
threaten our peace, to threaten our friends and allies with the world's worst
weapons."—South Bend, Ind., Sept. 5, 2002
"If you don't have any
ambitions, the minimum-wage job isn't going to get you to where you want to
get, for example. In other words, what is your ambitions? And oh, by the way,
if that is your ambition, here's what it's going to take to achieve
it."—Speech to students in Little Rock, Ark., Aug. 29, 2002 (Thanks to
George Dupper.)
"See, we love—we love
freedom. That's what they didn't understand. They hate things; we love things.
They act out of hatred; we don't seek revenge, we seek justice out of
love."—Oklahoma City, Aug. 29, 2002
"There's no cave deep
enough for America, or dark enough to hide."—Oklahoma City, Aug. 29,
2002 (Thanks to Michael Shively.)
"President Musharraf, he's
still tight with us on the war against terror, and that's what I
appreciate. He's a—he understands that we've got to keep al-Qaida on the
run, and that by keeping him on the run, it's more likely we will bring him to
justice."—Ruch, Ore., Aug. 22, 2002 (Thanks to Scott Miller.)
"I'm a patient man. And
when I say I'm a patient man, I mean I'm a patient man."
"Nothing he [Saddam
Hussein] has done has convinced me—I'm confident the Secretary of Defense—that
he is the kind of fellow that is willing to forgo weapons of mass destruction,
is willing to be a peaceful neighbor, that is—will honor the people—the Iraqi
people of all stripes, will—values human life. He hasn't convinced me, nor has
he convinced my administration."—Crawford, Texas, Aug. 21, 2002
"I'm thrilled to be here in
the bread basket of America because it gives me a chance to remind our fellow
citizens that we have an advantage here in America—we can feed
ourselves."—Stockton, Calif., Aug. 23, 2002 (Thanks to Christopher Baird.)
"There's no bigger task
than protecting the homeland of our country."
"The federal government and
the state government must not fear programs who change lives, but must welcome
those faith-based programs for the embetterment of mankind."—Stockton,
Calif., Aug. 23, 2002 (Thanks to George Dupper.)
"I love the idea of a
school in which people come to get educated and stay in the state in which
they're educated."
"There may be some tough
times here in America. But this country has gone through tough times before,
and we're going to do it again."
"I promise you I will
listen to what has been said here, even though I wasn't here."
"I can assure you that,
even though I won't be sitting through every single moment of the seminars, nor
will the vice president, we will look at the summaries."
"Tommy [Thompson, Health
and Human Services secretary,] is a good listener, and he's a pretty good
actor, too."
"The trial lawyers are very
politically powerful. … But here in Texas we took them on and got some good
medical—medical malpractice.""I firmly believe the death tax is good
for people from all walks of life all throughout our society."
—Waco, Texas, Aug. 13, 2002
"There was no malfeance
involved. This was an honest disagreement about accounting procedures. ...
There was no malfeance, no attempt to hide anything."—White House press
conference, Washington, D.C., July 8, 2002
"I also understand how
tender the free enterprise system can be."—White House press conference,
Washington, D.C., July 9, 2002
"Over 75 percent of white
Americans own their home, and less than 50 percent of Hispanos and African
Americans don't own their home. And that's a gap, that's a homeownership gap.
And we've got to do something about it."—Cleveland, Ohio, July 1, 2002
"Whether you're here by
birth, or whether you're in America by choice, you contribute to the vitality
of our life. And for that, we are grateful."—Washington, D.C., May
17, 2002
"I'd rather have them
sacrificing on behalf of our nation than, you know, endless hours of testimony
on congressional hill."—National Security Agency, Fort Meade, Maryland,
June 4, 2002
"We're working with
Chancellor Schröder on what's called 10-plus-10-over-10: $10 billion from the
U.S.,$10 billion from other members of the G7 over a 10-year period, to help
Russia securitize the dismantling—the dismantled nuclear
warheads."—Berlin, Germany, May 23, 2002
"Do you have blacks,
too?"—To Brazilian President Fernando Cardoso, Washington, D.C., Nov. 8,
2001
"This is a nation that
loves our freedom, loves our country."—Washington, D.C, May 17, 2002
"The public education
system in America is one of the most important foundations of our democracy.
After all, it is where children from all over America learn to be responsible
citizens, and learn to have the skills necessary to take advantage of our
fantastic opportunistic society."—Santa Clara, Calif., May 1, 2002
"After all, a week ago,
there were—Yasser Arafat was boarded up in his building in Ramallah, a building
full of, evidently, German peace protestors and all kinds of people. They're
now out. He's now free to show leadership, to lead the world."—Washington,
D.C., May 2, 2002 (Thanks to M. Bateman.)
"This foreign policy stuff
is a little frustrating."—as quoted by the New York Daily News,
April 23, 2002
"I want to thank the dozens
of welfare to work stories, the actual examples of people who made the firm and
solemn commitment to work hard to embetter themselves."—Washington, D.C.,
April 18, 2002 (Thanks to George Dupper.)
"And so, in my State of
the—my State of the Union—or state—my speech to the nation, whatever you want
to call it, speech to the nation—I asked Americans to give 4,000 years—4,000
hours over the next—the rest of your life—of service to America. That's what I
asked—4,000 hours." —Bridgeport, Conn., April 9, 2002 …(there are many
more)
Election outcome may complicate Obama's
foreign policy (Washington Post)
[ Wow! That’s all this country
needs … a more self-destructive zionist-leaning foreign policy which, as
obvious to the rest of the world, ignores israel’s transgressions (ie.,
violations of international law, u.n. resolutions, nuclear non-proliferation
treaty, etc.) while focusing on geopolitically detrimental or otherwise,
non-events. I see an already zionist-leaning foreign policy with wobama and co.
which begs the question … What foreign policy? James Forrestal made the point
infra: ]
Obama
cites Indonesia as model for Muslims (Washington Post)[
Drudgereport: Obama slams israel from
Jakarta … [ Wow! Who woulda’ thunk it … Wobama growing gonads in Indonesia … He
is quite correct, albeit in one of those sparingly infrequent moments … But,
alas … he’ll be returning to ‘little israel’ soon (usa) and I’m sure his
rhetoric will return to typical pro-israeli (anti-american interest) actions
and words (b*** s***)! ]...
netanayahu takes Flight
Back...
Confronts Anti-israel
Reality/Truth Movement in USA...
China Ratings
Agency Downgrades America... ] In city he
once lived in as a boy, Obama heralds nation's "spirit of tolerance"
that allows mosques, churches and temples to co-exist in a democracy.
Progress in Afghan war called 'uneven'
( Washington Post ) [ Uneven? Riiiiight! The real question
consonant with reality: Is there EVEN progress at all … just a little bit … un
petit peux … teeny weeny, itsy bitsy, one iota of progress … A resounding NO! …
unless you’re counting the magnitude of america’s defacto bankruptcy,
anti-american sentiment, etc.. ]
Visiting U.S. senators praise Afghan
progress, say drawdown date is unrealistic (Washington Post) [ I’ll
tell you what’s unrealistic: having compromised senators ( ie., non-war-heroe
senile mccain, closet homosexual graham, incompetent zelig zionist lieberman, new
york sinkhole slug Kirsten Gillibrand chided As 'Schumer's (zionist)
Little Girl' ) stay the course with already failed pervasively corrupt,
defacto bankrupt american policy … Paul
Craig Roberts: Government Abandoned Vietnam POWs Kurt
Nimmo |
John McCain worked overtime to make sure Vietnam POWs never came home. I think
the even bigger story vis-à-vis mccain is: http://www.albertpeia.com/heroenot.htm
‘Did you know that that so-called "american heroe" john mccain was
referred to by his fellow pows in Vietnam as something akin to the
"songbird" inasmuch as he was constantly "singing" to his
Viet-Cong captors to curry favor and better treatment? This has been documented
with authority by Colonel David Hackworth. The same violates military
code/protocol (other soldiers have been court-martialed for far less) click Here, Here. [ http://www.albertpeia.com/hackworth.htm
] But, you see, this covered up scenario, compromizing the false facade
of far less than a heroe, is exactly what a criminal (lie of a) nation as
america loves and encourages (get everyone's hands dirty so no-one dares to
rectify same, ie., bush, sr., clinton, bush, jr.). That is, "toe the
(corrupt, propagandized) line", become a criminal, or be exposed,
prosecuted, and/or ruined; and, hasn't anyone asked how "wall street"
has been "spared the spotlight" (and even was accorded protective
legislation from their criminal culpability) and focus of inquiry, attention,
and prosecution despite being the primary beneficiaries financial and otherwise
of these scams (you know the wall street motto, "churn and earn";
huge conflicts of interest if not outright fraud)…’…Oh and they so can afford
it Deficit
panel proposes huge cuts (Washington Post) [ Cuts? I heard the corrupt, incompetent lawmakers were giving
themselves a raise. They actually deserve at least a 10% paycut and abolition
of those lifetime appointments / permanent corrupt bureaucracies. Nothing
succeeds like failure and crime in pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt
america! ] Lawmakers propose curbs on Social Security, cuts in spending and tax
hikes if long-term goals aren't met.
Families remember USS Cole 10 years later
(Washington Post) [ If only Americans remembered the uss
liberty, they’d understand the israeli albatross strangling and bleeding the
life out of america as they have since that
fateful day.] In
the Middle East, it's still 1947 (Washington
Post) [ Indeed it should be! Among the few
times the cia was correct, and they’ve been trying to put square pegs in round
holes ever since, to america’s substantial detriment. I wonder what what those
american sailors of the US Liberty killed by the israelis would say?
USS
Liberty Survivor Threatened by Unknown Israeli This is what happened to Phillip F. Tourney, decorated war hero
and survivor of Israel’s premeditated attack on the USS Liberty 43 years ago.
On the evening of Aug. 6, Tourney was verbally threatened by a foreign national
claiming to work for the government of israel. As for the purported disdain
shown for war mongerer netanayahu, if only wobama’s actions matched his words,
the same would represent a major plus for him and the nation of america, so
sorely in need of pluses whether the same be budgetary or economic or
geopolitical. In fact, for America to abrogate 1948 would guarantee America’s
survival, prosperity, and global hegemony in the most positive sense. ]
‘The Obama Deception’
Censored A viral You Tube upload of
one of Alex Jones’ most popular feature films ‘The Obama Deception’ has been
censored following a spur of the moment campaign to elevate the movie’s title
to the top of the major internet search engines. In light of
this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be
complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if
incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv
Judges
rule without title, lenders can't foreclose (Washington Post) [ Rules of law? I didn’t think
they cared. That’s certainly the direct experience I’ve had with the
pervasively corrupt american legal / judicial system (along with the other two
branches of the u.s. government and defact bankrupt america generally). Court
decisions could call into doubt the ownership of mortgages, raising urgent
challenges for both the real estate market, wider financial system. Connecticut,
California join probe of Ally (Washington Post) [I’d be much more impressed if they initiated a probe of more
readily discernible criminal offenses in violation of the RICO Act http://albertpeia.com Frauds/Liars
(sic-lawyers)Covering Up for Other Frauds/Liars (sic-lawyers). In Productive
Societies as China, Japan, etc., Fraudulent Liars (sic-lawyers) and the
Fraudulent u.s. System They're a Part of Are Unheard Of/Non-existent. List of
Files Regarding Filed Attorney Grievance Against Fraud coan et als Or Here For A Clearer View Of
Filed
Grievance Complaint, Response, Exhibits, and Related RICO Filings Note the Committee of
Frauds/Liars (sic-lawyers). Included are DOJ Rep., State Court Rep., State
Atty. General Office Rep., and even a Vegetable Garden yale law prof who
probably never practiced law in his life. How Pathetic! http://albertpeia.com/fbiofficela91310
] Justice:
FBI improperly opened probes
(Washington Post) [ I just hope
they’re as zealous (in probing readily discernible crime) with regard to my
RICO matters and the corruption in the (judicial / legal) process since, in the
final analysis, it will have been the corruption within that will have brought
the nation down irrevocably and totally.
October 5, 2010 (*see infra)
Steven M. Martinez,
Assistant Director In Charge
Federal Bureau of Investigation, USDOJ
11000 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 1700
Dear Sir:
I enclose herewith 3
copies of the within DVD rom autorun disk (which will open in your computer’s
browser) as per your office’s request as made this day (the disk and contents
have been scanned by Avast, McAfee, and Norton which I’ve installed on my
computer to prevent viral attacks / infection and are without threat). I also
include 1 copy of the DVD as filed with the subject court as referenced therein
(which files are also included on the aforesaid 3 disks in a separate folder
named ‘112208opocoan’). The (civil) RICO action (as you’re aware, the RICO Act
is a criminal statute which provides a civil remedy, including treble damages
and attorney fees, as an incentive for private prosecution of said claims
probably owing to the fact that the USDOJ seems somewhat overwhelmed and in
need of such assistance given the seriousness and prevalence of said violations
of law which have a corrupting influence on the process, and which corruption
is pervasive). A grievance complaint against Coan was also filed concurrently
with the subject action and held in abeyance pending resolution of the action
which was illegally dismissed without any supporting law and in contravention
of the Order of The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge, USDC, District
Connecticut. The files below the horizontal rule are the referenced documents
as filed. (Owing to the damage to the financial interests of both the U.S. and
the District of Congresswoman Roybal-Allard, viz., Los Angeles, the
Qui Tam provisions of the Federal
False Claims Act probably would apply and I would absent resolution seek to
refer the within to a firm with expertise in that area of the law with which I
am not familiar).
The document in 5 pages under penalty of
perjury I was asked to forward to the FBI office in New Haven is probably the
best and most concise summary of the case
RICO Summary
to FBI Under Penalty of Perjury at Their Request (5 pages) [
ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf ].
The correspondence I
received from the Congresswoman by way of email attachment (apparent but typical
problem with my mail) along with my response thereto is included on the 3 disks
as fbicorrespondencereyes.htm .
With regard to the calls to the FBI’s LA and New Haven, CT offices:
There was one call to the LA office and I was referred to the Long Beach, CA
office where I personally met with FBI Agent Jeff Hayes to whom I gave
probative evidentiary documents of the money laundering which he confirmed as
indicative of same (he was transferred from said office within approximately a
month of said meeting and his location was not disclosed to me upon inquiry).
The matter was assigned to FBI Agent Ron Barndollar and we remained in touch
for in excess of a decade until he abruptly retired (our last conversation
prior to his retirement related to the case and parenthetically, Rudy Giuliani
whose father I stated had been an enforcer for the mob to which he registered
disbelief and requested I prove it, which I did – he served 12 years in prison,
aggravated assault/manslaughter? – and no, there is no Chinese wall of
separation – Andrew Maloney’s the one that prosecuted gotti).
In contradistinction
to the statement in said correspondence, there is a plethora of information
including evidence supporting the claims set forth in the RICO
VERIFIED COMPLAINT
(see infra). Such includes and as set forth in the case, inter alia,
There is applicable insurance / surety coverage and neither LA, nor
creditors, nor I should continue to have been damaged by this brazened corrupt
and illegal scenario, which should be resolved in accordance with the
meaningful rules of law apposite thereto.
Sincerely,
Albert L. Peia
611 E. 5th Street, #404
Los Angeles, CA 90013
(213) ******* (cell phone)
(213) 622-3745 (listed land line but there are unresolved problems with
the line, computer connection may be the reason but I hesitate to chance
greater non-performance / worsening by their ‘fix’ so cell phone best for
contact).
----------
*The foregoing and as
indicated therein was previously send 9-14-10 but delivery confirmation was
flawed as set forth below and my inquiries to the u.s. postal service rebuffed
(I believe tampered with inasmuch as your office could not locate same). This
cover letter (9-13-10) is on the 3 disks with navigable hyperlinks to the
subject files for ease of reference, including the files in the RICO action as
indicated.
-----
Label/Receipt Number:
0310 1230 0000 0862 8183
Expected Delivery
Date: September 15, 2010
Class: Priority Mail®
Service(s): Delivery
Confirmation™
Status: Delivered
Your item was
delivered at 10:14 am on September 15, 2010 in LOS ANGELES, CA 90024.
Track and
Confirm
Enter Label/Receipt Number.
Enter Label / Receipt
Number.
Detailed
Results:
Bullet Delivered, September 15, 2010, 10:14 am, LOS
ANGELES, CA 90024
Bullet Arrival at Post Office, September 15, 2010,
4:12 am, LOS ANGELES, CA 90024
Bullet Processed through Sort Facility, September 14,
2010, 8:29 pm, LOS ANGELES, CA 90052
Bullet Acceptance, September 14, 2010, 4:04 pm, LOS
ANGELES, CA 90017
----
Sent Postage Prepaid: United States Mail - VIA Priority
Mail, Delivery Confirmation and VIA Certified Mail this 5th day of October,
2010.
Signed:
___________________________________
Albert L. Peia
• Audio: Obama on terrorism tactics
A subtler tack to fight Afghan corruption?
(Washington
Post) [ How about a not so subtler tack
to fight corruption starting right here in the u.s. of a. where corruption and
crime are pervasive and in fact, at the root of the Afghanistan problems, from
american reinvigorated heroin trade to bribery attendant thereto to killing
civilians, etc.. Defacto Bankrupt, Meaningfully Lawless,
War Criminal Nation america, the leader of nations … in crime:
Though having but 5% of the world’s population, america can
boast 76% of the world’s serial killers, followed by Europe with England/UK
then Germany leading the way for the eu [excerpt, 6 minute video, Serial
Killers: Real Life Hannibal Lechters
http://www.albertpeia.com/realifeamericaserialkillers.mpg (as is consistent with crime generally,
see infra)]. Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive
(defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of
the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern
emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed
employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in
this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense
( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
) ]:
Rank |
|||
# 1
|
11,877,218 |
|
|
# 2
|
6,523,706 |
|
|
# 3
|
6,507,394 |
|
… ]
Stepped-up
efforts fail to stem drug money (Washington Post) [ Come on! Wake up! That’s american, yes american big business.
The stuff that the war in Afghanistan is made of; viz., ie., heroin, etc..
]Stashing cash in spare tires, engine transmissions and truckloads of baby
diapers, couriers for Mexican drug cartels are moving tens of billions of
dollars in profits south across the border each year, a river of dirty money
that has overwhelmed U.S. and Mexican customs agents.
Mideast Digest: Iran's Ahmadinejad
calls for regional solution to Afghan crisis (Washington
Post) And appropriately so, as leader of a nation in the region as opposed to
invading nations from outside the region (particularly as one targeted by
assassins the likely assigns of those outside the region).
Judge: 'Don't ask, don't tell' is
unconstitutional (Washington Post) [ Well, we
all know that judge walker is alledgedly a homo, so the question here is
whether judge phillips is a lesbian… just kidding! Not to slight homosexuals
but to emphasize judicial bias / corruption which is pervasive in america and
I’ve observed, experienced, and have been substantially damaged by pervasive
and systemic corruption in the american judicial process which has become more
blatant and which justifies the abolition of these costly, corrupt lifetime
appointment / bureaucracies. The fact is that ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’ is the
policy throughout the pervasively corrupt federal system which is indeed as
illegal as it is unconstitutional!
( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
). ]
(Previously) I’d say this
alito vs. wobama is a tempest in a teapot inasmuch as alito is more than just a
lightweight, hack, liar, fraud etc., as set forth in the comments. alito is a
criminal who should have served / should be serving time in prison for
obstruction of justice, bribery, among other RICO violations. To alito, drug
money is as green as corporate money and worth his vote as well. In addition to
being an inept [I looked in on the one mob case he had brought, bungled, lost
(accidently on purpose?) since I was suing some mob-connected under RICO and
the court (I had known / previously met outside of court the judge Ackerman
through a client) was absolute bedlam and a total joke since incompetent
corrupt alito brought in all 20 mob defendants (rather than prosecute one or a
few to flip them first) who feigning illness had beds/cots in the courtroom
along with their moans during testimony and had the jury in stitches)] and
corrupt (see below and particularly the summary provided to the FBI under
penalty of perjury [
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
] ) u.s. attorney.
You’re naïve to think
that the so-called supreme court is any different from the rest of the
meaningfully lawless and pervasively corrupt american ‘system’. I knew well an
accomplished trial lawyer, fellow american college of trial lawyers / and a bar
examiner, who pondered from time to time becoming a judge “so he’d never have
to work again” – his words.
Some comments on
alito…all appropriate:
Probably the worst appointment in one
hundred years.
Posted by: mnjam
-----------------------
Really? That's a pretty sweeping statement
to make about someone who's only been on the court a short few years.
And I thought that liberals were in
universal agreement that Clarence Thomas was the worst appointment in all of
history?
Posted by: blert | January 28, 2010 2:11
AM | Report abuse
----------------------------
Yes. Really. Alito is a total lightweight and hack. He makes Thomas look like
John Marshall or Oliver Wendell Holmes. I KNOW ALITO.
Posted by: mnjam | January 28, 2010 2:24 AM |
the loser here is alito.lost his composure not good for a judge especially
afederal or supreme justice .loser big time this will live with guy for a very
time.roberts and the other justices will have a talk with him that is a
given.this relly larger than o one day news cycle.
Posted by: donaldtucker | January 28, 2010 1:12 AM |
Should Alito resign or be impeached?
Posted by: jdmca | January 28, 2010 1:05 AM |
I
include the first two comments to the foregoing headline:
Billo Says:
June 11th, 2010 at 6:15
am
Lunacy? Keep in mind
that this country is run and controlled by lunatics. Our press government and
military seem to take their orders from Israel. Isarel wants to be known as a
pack of “mad dogs. Do we want “mad dogs” controlling us?
Here we see a bunch of phony accusations against Iran just
like we did in the run up to the bogus wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and now
Pakistan. The boy has cried wold ten thousand times. It’s time to identify the
“lunatics” and kindly take away the car keys. If you won’t let your friends
drive drunk, why do we let a bunch of “lunatic” enemies run this place.
Glen Reply:
June 11th, 2010 at 6:47
am
Lunacy it would be.
But it is also to their
great credit that the Iranians have not made their own threats.
Everyone knows there are
3 WMD threats, Nuclear Biological and chemical. The scariest of which is
Biological.
Any attack done under
the threat of immediate biological retaliation would deter only the insane.
Watch out america home
of the insane, home of the leaders who want an 80% population reduction.
Paul
Craig Roberts: Government Abandoned Vietnam POWs Kurt Nimmo
| John McCain worked overtime to make sure Vietnam POWs never came home. I
think the even bigger story vis-à-vis mccain is: http://www.albertpeia.com/heroenot.htm
‘Did you know that that so-called "american heroe" john mccain was
referred to by his fellow pows in Vietnam as something akin to the
"songbird" inasmuch as he was constantly "singing" to his
Viet-Cong captors to curry favor and better treatment? This has been documented
with authority by Colonel David Hackworth. The same violates military
code/protocol (other soldiers have been court-martialed for far less) click Here, Here. [ http://www.albertpeia.com/hackworth.htm
] But, you see, this covered up scenario, compromizing the false facade
of far less than a heroe, is exactly what a criminal (lie of a) nation as
america loves and encourages (get everyone's hands dirty so no-one dares to
rectify same, ie., bush, sr., clinton, bush, jr.). That is, "toe the
(corrupt, propagandized) line", become a criminal, or be exposed,
prosecuted, and/or ruined; and, hasn't anyone asked how "wall street"
has been "spared the spotlight" (and even was accorded protective
legislation from their criminal culpability) and focus of inquiry, attention,
and prosecution despite being the primary beneficiaries financial and otherwise
of these scams (you know the wall street motto, "churn and earn";
huge conflicts of interest if not outright fraud)…’
Coalition wants UK space lift-off [ Don’t make me laugh! ]
Israel’s
Nukes Out of the Shadows Israel faces unprecedented pressure to abandon
its official policy of “ambiguity” on its possession of nuclear weapons as the
international community meets at the United Nations in New York this week to
consider banning such arsenals from the Middle East.
NASA wants mission to bring Martian rocks to Earth (AP) Why?
They already have that and more:
Launch
of secret US space ship masks even more secret launch of new weapon
http://www.albertpeia.com/UFOetryWeNeverWentToTheMoonPNTV.wmv
[To the
Professor at the beginning of the course]
10-5-09
Postscript: Professor *****,
I felt compelled to thank you again for the add; not to curry your favor but
indeed to express profound thanks inasmuch as this is probably the last formal
course at a formal educational institution I'll ever take; and among the most
important. While I had bought at discount a library-discarded 1993 Anthropology
by Embers text, though meaning to read same never quite got to it. I am
astounded by the substantial amount of time involved in the evolutionary
process, not that I ever stopped to think about it, and one must come away with
the sense of 'and all that...for this?'. This course should be required
curriculum along with psychology, sociology, etc., but probably won't be owing
to what is, as it should be, a very humbling educational experience for any
member of the human race.
Regards,
Al Peia
Go to following pages for
above links:
http://www.albertpeia.com/currentopics2ndqtr10108.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com
http://www.scribd.com/alpeia
http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm
You may post a comment on my blog on any topic: http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com
Drudgereport:
KRUGMAN:
'We are now, I fear, in the early stages of a third depression'...
STOCKS HIT LOWEST OF YEAR...
DEBT
SOARS TO HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE WWII...
PRIVATE SECTOR SEES WEAKER JUNE JOBS...
Sputtering...
Bilderberg
2010: Between the sword and the wall...
Protesters
'being detained, searched, questioned'...
Final
List of Participants...
Stephen Hawking: Aliens exist but don't talk to them --
it's too dangerous … might not like us… Oh pshaw! … Human nature, man’s
inhumanity to man? … Such humble beginnings and evolutionary history …
What’s not to like? … Besides, not to worry. With their advanced
technologies that defy human understanding, the aliens already know you’re here
… to stay. So, not to worry. After all, as we know from that documentary of
that same name, ‘Earth Girls Are Easy’ … and then there’s photosynthesis on
earth in a very big way also going for it! ...
Seeing
Aliens Will Likely Take Centuries. Centuries? Not goin’ to happen; at best,
decades.