Wall Street Lunacy 2006

Current Topics 2006

Financial Lunacy 2006

World Indices Weekly Closing Prices

Full Moons, Fraud, and Lunatics. What More Can Be Said.

Current Market Numbers/Closing Prices From Yahoo

Current Wall Street Lunacy Updates 2008

Wall Street Lunacy 1st Quarter 2008

(1-16-08) Economist Dr. Irving Kellner…..already in recession, monetary policy (rate cuts, etc.) will not help in such a scenario, collateralized mortgage securities have become worthless so write-downs, no bottom until housing/real estate falls further, consumer saving rates low, debt levels high, worse to come…..Economist Lawrence Summers says recession could be long and severe…..bankruptcies up 40%, industrial production flat, inflation up and much higher than reported DEFAULTS UP, Housing down, inflation up, consumer confidence down SHARPLY, TRADE DEFICIT NEAR RECORD AND ABOVE EXPECTATIONS, RETAIL SALES DOWN AND FAR BELOW EXPECTATIONS, ALREADY IN RECESSION DESPITE JAWBONING (BULL S**T) TO THE CONTRARY, fake economic reports/data, more bull s**t/spin, dollar to fall even further with fed panic, as stocks drop modestly relative to reality (DOW -34, NASDAQ –23, S&P -7). REALITY: THIS IS A BEAR MARKET IN A SECULAR BEAR MARKET IN A RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A SECULAR (AND QUITE PERMANENT-THEY’VE MADE ALL THE WRONG CHOICES) ECONOMIC DOWNTREND IN THE U.S.   ONE ANALYST/REPORTER/JOURNALIST FROM INSIDE SOURCES PEGS THE SUB-PRIME DOLLAR VALUE OF THE SHILLED WORTHLESS PAPER AT $516 TRILLION (EVEN A PERCENTAGE OF SAME RENDERS THE PROBLEM UNFIXABLE-HENCE, CULPABLE PARTIES MUST BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE AND DISGORGE THEIR ILL-GOTTEN GAINS FROM, IE., COMMISSIONING WORTHLESS PAPER, TAKING A POINT HERE OR THERE AND FRAUDULENTLY PASSING SAME ON, AD INFINITUM, ETC.). Time to put the wall street among other corporate frauds in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their ill-gotten gains.(1-15-08) weaker than expected retail sales report for December, Wholesale Prices Up 6.3% in '07- Largest amount in 26 years,Dollar hits record low vs Swiss franc ,Survey: Asia, Europe Has World's Freest Economies,Citigroup raises a whopping diluting $14.5  billion, cuts dividend, announces layoffs, $18 billion in write-downs and more to follow as subprime losses mount  DEFAULTS UP, Housing down, inflation up, consumer confidence down SHARPLY, TRADE DEFICIT NEAR RECORD AND ABOVE EXPECTATIONS, RETAIL SALES DOWN AND FAR BELOW EXPECTATIONS, ALREADY IN RECESSION DESPITE JAWBONING (BULL S**T) TO THE CONTRARY, as stocks drop modestly relative to reality (DOW -277, NASDAQ –60, S&P -35). REALITY: THIS IS A BEAR MARKET IN A SECULAR BEAR MARKET IN A RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A SECULAR (AND QUITE PERMANENT-THEY’VE MADE ALL THE WRONG CHOICES) ECONOMIC DOWNTREND IN THE U.S.  Time to put the wall street among other corporate frauds in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their ill-gotten gains.
(1-14-08) OIL PRICE RALLY RALLIES STOCKS, DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY CONSISTENT WITH FED PANIC, COMMODITIES/GOLD UP SHARPLY/RECORDS, STAGFLATION,  IBM SO EXCITED THEY PREMATURELY JAWBONE STOCKS HIGHER WITH THE RHETORIC THAT HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN…..RIIIIIGHT!,
DEFAULTS UP, Housing down, inflation up, consumer confidence down SHARPLY, TRADE DEFICIT NEAR RECORD AND ABOVE EXPECTATIONS, RETAIL SALES DOWN AND FAR BELOW EXPECTATIONS, ALREADY IN RECESSION DESPITE JAWBONING (BULL S**T) TO THE CONTRARY, lunatics’/suckers’ bear market rally/dead dog bounce (DOW +171, NASDAQ +38, S&P +15) REALITY: THIS IS A BEAR MARKET IN A SECULAR BEAR MARKET IN A RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A SECULAR (AND QUITE PERMANENT-THEY’VE MADE ALL THE WRONG CHOICES) ECONOMIC DOWNTREND IN THE U.S.  Time to put the wall street among other corporate frauds in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their ill-gotten gains. (1-11-08)  DEFAULTS UP, Housing down, inflation up, consumer confidence down SHARPLY, TRADE DEFICIT NEAR RECORD AND ABOVE EXPECTATIONS, RETAIL SALES DOWN AND FAR BELOW EXPECTATIONS, ALREADY IN RECESSION DESPITE JAWBONING (BULL S**T) TO THE CONTRARY, STAGFLATION, dollar down as stocks drop modestly relative to reality (DOW -247, NASDAQ –49, S&P -19). Nothing has fundamentally changed regarding the descent and decline of criminal/fraud banana republic america and the already bad news is worse than acknowledged.  Watch for the fake economic reports/data, more bull s**t/spin, ie., insiders not selling-real reason is their fear of fraud prosecutions (they’ve known for quite some time that the business/economic scenario is much worse than purported/reported and have” made their hay” already predicated on same with many multimillion dollar pay packages for which disgorgement is appropriate), etc. Time to put the wall street among other corporate frauds in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their ill-gotten gains. (1-10-08) Good money after bad is the mantra on wall street as BofA with $2 billion already in Countrywide says they’ll shoot-the-moon, take the whole ball of wax, eat the whole thing, keep the fraud ball rolling/covered, etc., which rallies stocks based on bull s**t alone, notably that of fed head bernanke who jawbones (bull s**ts) stocks higher with promised rate cuts, even weaker dollar, and even higher hyperinflation thereby. Retail sales down and far below expectations, already in recession despite jawboning (bull s**t) to the contrary, stagflation. Citibank and Merrill Lynch desperately seek to sell more of themselves to foreign interests to cover substantial losses/fraud. Merrill Lynch to write down another $15 billion and more to come. American Express to write off more than $440 million in bad credit card debt. One respected analyst/fund manager says we’re in a bear market having broken through all resistence levels. Lunatics’/suckers’ bear market rally/dead dog bounce into the close (dow +117, nasdaq +13, s&p +11) to keep the suckers suckered and computerized commission trade dollars flowing. Time to put the wall street frauds in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their illgotten gains. (1-9-08) Happy days are here again (REALITY SAYS NOT) say the frauds on wall street with new bull s**t talking point that the newly (not really, just covered up to perpetuate the fraud) discovered fact that we’re already in recession and that means rate cuts to make the dollar even more worthless and the hyperinflation even more hyper, and that the now conceded reality of recession will be short-lived. How about reality that the same marks the (continuation)beginning of a downturn from which there will be no coming back for criminal/fraud america. 

Economic 9/11 Just as the Twin Towers collapsed from the top down, so too will the US economy from an Economic 9/11, when the high-stake speculators, banks, brokerages, and buyout firms that leveraged billions with millions get hit with reality. The Panic of 08 Failing banks, busted brokerages, toppled corporate giants, bankrupt cities, states in default, foreign creditors cashing out of US securities … whatever the spark, the stage is set for panic in the streets. America’s broke and the whole world knows it. As america’s economy spirals down and that the dollar will fall with it, foreign creditors are dumping dollars on the market … and even Third World street vendors don’t want to take greenbacks any longer. The further it falls, the less it’s worth. The less it’s worth, the less it buys. In the real world they call it "inflation." In america they call it "good for business." http://www.trendsresearch.com Time to put the wall street frauds in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their illgotten gains. Lunatics’/suckers’ bear market rally/dead dog bounce into the close (DOW +146, NASDAQ +34, S&P +18) to keep the suckers suckered and computerized commission trade dollars flowing. (1-8-08) Housing down, inflation up, consumer confidence down, oil prices up, dollar down as stocks drop modestly relative to reality (DOW -238, NASDAQ –58, S&P -25). Nothing has fundamentally changed regarding the descent and decline of criminal/fraud america and the already bad news is worse than acknowledged. $14 billion ($21 billion in 2006) in bonuses to the lunatic/frauds on wall street for a commissionable (sub prime bundled) fraud well done, inflation up, dollar down, oil prices up, manufacturing down; one analyst/reporter/journalist from inside sources pegs the sub-prime dollar value of the shilled worthless paper at $516 TRILLION (even a percentage of same renders the problem unfixable-hence, culpable parties must be held accountable and disgorge their ill-gotten gains from, ie., commissioning worthless paper, taking a point here or there and fraudulently passing same on, ad infinitum, etc.).  (1-7-08) With sloth-like reflexes and speed the fallible frauds on wall street now recognize, yes we’re already in a recession, with new bull s**t talking point, that’s good for some stocks - NOT says reality- as lunatics’/suckers’ bear market rally/dead dog bounce into the close (DOW +27, NASDAQ –5, S&P +4) to keep the suckers suckered and computerized commission trade dollars flowing. Despite severe inflation (the fed excludes food and energy from their fake/worthless/meaningless calculation, because it’s allegedly cyclical…..riiiiight! And everything else is imported cheap for the purpose of increasing the deficit and eliminating u.s. jobs) the frauds are hoping for more fake gov’t reports, rate cuts to make the dollar even more worthless and inflation greater, etc., and hope they’ll escape accountability for their fraud ($14 billion in bonuses,$21 billion in 2006, on top of huge salaries, etc.). (1-4-08) Small dose of reality as unemployment rises to 5% and stocks drop modestly relative to reality (DOW -256, NASDAQ –98, S&P -35). Nothing has fundamentally changed regarding the descent and decline of criminal/fraud america and the already bad news is worse than acknowledged. (1-3-08)  Despite economists expectations of fewer new jobs, ADP, a jersey based company not unfamiliar to the fraud/crime of placing fake/non-existent employees on payrolls to facilitate (illegal/drug) money laundering plays ball (I’m sure for a price/favor) with the frauds on wall street with a figure in excess of same (40,000) with the labor department also chiming in with fake data; durables down, auto sales down (Ford now #3); bull s**t talking points for  lunatics’/suckers’ bear market rally/dead dog bounce into the close (DOW +13, NASDAQ –6, S&P +0) to keep the suckers suckered and computerized commission trade dollars flowing. (1-2-08)Modest drop relative to reality on wall street, as DOW drops 221, S&P down 21 and NASDAQ down 42. $14 billion ($21 billion in 2006) in bonuses to the lunatic/frauds on wall street for a commissionable (sub prime bundled) fraud well done, inflation up, dollar down, oil prices up, manufacturing down; one analyst/reporter/journalist from inside sources pegs the sub-prime dollar value of the shilled worthless paper at $516 TRILLION (even a percentage of same renders the problem unfixable-hence, culpable parties must be held accountable and disgorge their ill-gotten gains from, ie., commissioning worthless paper, taking a point here or there and fraudulently passing same on, ad infinitum, etc.).

(12-31-07) Modest drop relative to reality on wall street, as DOW ends up 6%, S&P up 3%, and NASDAQ up 9% for year 2007. One analyst optimistically and modestly projects 15% decline for 2008. (12-28-07) If it looks/sounds too good to be true, it probably isn’t. An aphorism apropos to most frauds and to wall street particularly. Indeed, there was a time when economics/finance bore some relation to the level of stock prices which heretofore had been a precursor to economic conditions. Yet, with depression level economic conditions/indicators (those that aren’t fudged too much), the market has rallied to new highs taking huge commission dollars along the way. Fake gov’t reports, consumers spent (much) more than they earned, durables down, housing sales at 12 yr. Low and down 9%, dollar down, $14 billion in bonuses ($21 billion in 2006, on top of huge salaries, etc.) to the lunatic/frauds on wall street for a commissionable (sub prime bundled) fraud well done, inflation up; one analyst/reporter/journalist from inside sources pegs the sub-prime dollar value of the shilled worthless paper at $516 TRILLION (even a percentage of same renders the problem unfixable-hence, culpable parties must be held accountable and disgorge their ill-gotten gains from, ie., commissioning worthless paper, taking a point here or there and fraudulently passing same on, ad infinitum, etc.), dollar at/near record lows, housing/real estate/indices/prices down, durable goods orders down more than expected .4%, leading indicators down, bull s**t talking points for  lunatics’/suckers’ bear market rally/dead dog bounce into the close to keep the suckers suckered and computerized commission trade dollars flowing; deficits, fake/false government reports/data, expectation of rate cut because things are so bad despite higher than reported inflation and negative effect on worthless dollar, etc., all to keep the suckers suckered and computerized commission trade dollars flowing, while pros/institutions are tip-toeing to the doorway leaving you with their bag of tricks/fraud/bull s**t!  Nothing has fundamentally changed regarding the descent and decline of criminal/fraud america. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Very Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital via, ie., ipo’S - less than 5% of what they do, etc.), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades. (12-27-07) Modest drop relative to reality on wall street as durables up less than expected at .1% (still over-reported), oil inventories down, oil prices up, dollar down, etc.. (12-26-07) Housing price fall sets new record, higher oil prices, wall street fund refuses redemptions (ie., black rock…..once the frauds have your money it’s theirs to commission, pillage, and plunder), retail sales below expectations, all bad news but wall street no longer ‘climbs the wall of worry’ but rather climbs the wall of rationality, as lunatics’/suckers’ bear market rally/dead dog bounce into the close to keep the suckers suckered and computerized commission trade dollars flowing. How about the lunatic/frauds on wall street are just climbing the walls because they’re mad as hatters, nuttier than fruitcakes, etc.. Get your money out while you still can. Like Elvis, the smart money has already left the building. (12-24-07) Santa Claus rally! Santa Claus rally! …..riiiiight! The lunatic frauds on wall street have a right to a santa claus rally (looking toward future frauds they will perpetrate since there is nothing whatsoever to justify the current level of commissionable fraudulently worthless paper including the dollar). (12-21-07) Fake gov’t report from scandal-scarred commerce dep’t, (suuuuure), consumers spent (much) more than they earned, oil prices up, dollar down, $14 billion in bonuses to the lunatic/frauds on wall street for a commissionable (sub prime bundled) fraud well done, inflation up, one analyst/reporter/journalist from inside sources pegs the sub-prime dollar value of the shilled worthless paper at $516 TRILLION (even a percentage of same renders the problem unfixable-hence, culpable parties must be held accountable and disgorge their ill-gotten gains from, ie., commissioning worthless paper, taking a point here or there and fraudulently passing same on, ad infinitum, etc.), dollar at/near record lows, housing/real estate/indices/prices down, durable goods orders down more than expected .4%, leading indicators down, bull s**t talking points for  lunatics’/suckers’ bear market rally/dead dog bounce into the close to keep the suckers suckered and computerized commission trade dollars flowing (12-20-07) Fake gov’t report on GDP growth (4.9% suuuuure), leading indicators down again and tech-wreck will save us (riiiiight) new bull s**t talking points for  lunatics’/suckers’ bear market rally/dead dog bounce into the close to keep the suckers suckered and computerized commission trade dollars flowing, BEAR STEARNS Posts First Loss; Bigger-Than-Expected Mortgage Fallout... ,all the bad news remains the same….. (12-19-07) Modest drop relative to reality on wall street, first losses ever for those wall street gurus/make that lunatics/frauds bear sterns, morgan stanley but higher oil prices on lower oil inventories rallies stocks into the close, riiiiight….. all the bad news remains the same….. (12-18-07) Housing starts down, building permits down, inflation (wholesale) (though still substantially underreported) up sharply (highest in 34 years), consumer price index shows higher than expected inflation (though still substantially underreported), lunatics’/suckers’ bear market rally/dead dog bounce into the close to keep the suckers suckered and computerized commission trade dollars flowing, all the bad news remains the same…..

 Housing Construction Hits 16-Year Low...  Broken Seasonals Suggest a Bear Market  (12-17-07) Another modest drop relative to reality on wall street as the i word plus the r word yield the stagflation word, with Monday morning quarterbacks very late to the game starting to talk recession, with fears of accountability for the fraudulent run-up/bubbles weighing heavy as all the bad news remains the same….. (12-14-07) Modest drop relative to reality on wall street, as consumer price index shows higher than expected inflation (though still substantially underreported) , fears they may be held accountable for their fraud mount, and none of the sugar-coated bad news has changed…..  (12-13-07) Inflation (wholesale) (though still substantially underreported) up sharply (highest in 34 years), bond prices fall sharply, lunatics’/suckers’ bear market rally/dead dog bounce into the close to keep the suckers suckered and computerized commission trade dollars flowing, all the bad news remains the same….. (12-12-07) Federal deficit up sharply, along with oil prices (inventories fell substantially), foreclosures up, dollar down, sparks lunatics’/suckers’ bear market rally/dead dog bounce into the close to keep the suckers suckered and computerized commission trade dollars flowing, while pros/institutions are tip-toeing to the doorway leaving you with their bag of tricks/fraud/bull s**t!  Nothing has fundamentally changed regarding the descent and decline of criminal/fraud america. (12-11-07) Modest relative to reality drop on wall street as fears they may be held accountable for their fraud mount and nothing has changed….. (12-10-07) The market started the week on a bulls**tish note, aided by a financial sector that rallied again on the back of news about capital infusions (good money after bad) despite write-downs/losses in the financial sector, ie., UBS, MBIA, etc.. Another fake report from the gov’t also helped the fraud. Already sugar coated fake data/news/reports have been as bad as could be and far worse than expected by the fed leading to new bull s**t fraud-facilitating talking point, viz., interest rate cut expectations despite worthless dollar and much higher than reported inflation, one analyst/reporter/journalist from inside sources pegs the sub-prime dollar value of the shilled worthless paper at $516 TRILLION (even a percentage of same renders the problem unfixable-hence, culpable parties must be held accountable and disgorge their ill-gotten gains from, ie., commissioning worthless paper, taking a point here or there and fraudulently passing same on, ad infinitum, etc.), dollar at/near record lows, consumer confidence down, housing/real estate/indices/prices down, durable goods orders down more than expected .4%, leading indicators down, oil price drop on “less demand” (riiiiight) rallied oil stocks (suuuuure) (11-30-07), deficits, fake/false government reports/data, expectation of rate cut because things are so bad despite higher than reported inflation and negative effect on worthless dollar, etc., all to keep the suckers suckered and computerized commission trade dollars flowing, while pros/institutions are tip-toeing to the doorway leaving you with their bag of tricks/fraud/bull s**t!  Nothing has fundamentally changed regarding the descent and decline of criminal/fraud america. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Very Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital via, ie., ipo’S), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

The time-lines below highlight the four recessions in the US economy since 1980…..While the NBER was only a little late in its recognition of the recession that began in Summer 1981, they were late to the game in the remaining three. In fact, during the last two recessions, the NBER did not officially declare the start to a recession until the recession had already ended. The u.s. is already in recession, beyond the fake data/reports, with much higher than reported inflation, etc..

Economic Expert Says Global Crash Imminent
Echoes former world bank leader with prediction of global recession Steve Watson
A leading economic expert has warned that a global crash and recession is imminent on the back of record highs in real estate, stocks and energy, combined with a devaluation of the dollar and continued speculative bubble thinking. Robert Shiller, the Stanley B. Resor Professor of Economics at Yale University told an audience at the annual Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) Week that a sharp downward correction is due in the global markets. Shiller stated: Perhaps we have gotten a little too confident in the global economic growth, said Shiller. The problem is high oil, stock and real estate prices. I believe that a substantial part is speculative bubble thinking. We have gotten too confident of the prices in these markets.

Economic Outlook 2008: Darkening Clouds
Dom Armentano Lew Rockwell.com Thursday December 6, 2007 Presidential election years usually are not recessionary but next year will be an exception. Several economic factors are colliding in an almost perfect storm to markedly slow the general economy and the stock market. The most important signal flashing recession is, of course, the sub-prime mortgage fiasco. After years of monetary inflation on the part of the Federal Reserve, individuals and families with poor credit were suckered into low-down-payment/low-interest adjustable mortgages that simply cannot be maintained or repaid under current conditions. Their incentive is to sell the property quickly before their equity evaporates and/or the financial institution repossesses it. Yet the massive oversupply of homes and condos for sale has pushed prices down at a record clip and made additional foreclosures even more likely. Next year, unfortunately, will be the Year of the Auction. The financial institutions have also been punished…well sort of. Various institutions including hedge funds that hold these poorly performing debt obligations have been forced (by accounting rules) to "write down" the value of these assets, take huge paper losses in the bargain, and pull in their financial horns. Thus, any near-term recovery in housing must now fight a record supply availability, falling prices, higher insurance costs and restricted credit…a near-term impossibility in my view. Moreover, the slowdown in residential and commercial construction will send secondary ripple effects throughout the economy. Laid-off construction workers don't spend money. Construction and home furnishing suppliers sell less output and make fewer investments. Even local governments will be pinched by declining property-tax assessments and fewer developer fees. Things are likely to get worse before they get any better. The second major factor indicating a near-term recession is the sky-high price of crude oil and refined product. Pushed upward by world-wide speculative Mid-East war fears and increases in demand (especially from China), increasing energy prices act as an inflationary "tax" on domestic production and consumption throughout the market economy. Higher costs of production will lower profits; higher prices will reduce some consumption. The only good news here is that any substantial economic slowdown in 2008 will eventually moderate the price of oil and other commodity prices as well. The third factor in the current recession scenario – and the real wild card – is the continuing decline in the value of the dollar in international money markets caused by our Iraq blunder and the Federal Reserve–generated oversupply of dollars. Some economists would argue that a devalued dollar is good for U.S. exports, and thus positive for the economy as a whole. I disagree for three reasons. First, the bulk of crude oil purchases takes place in dollars; a falling dollar translates into still higher crude oil prices. Second, the U. S. dollar is the major reserve currency of the international monetary system and dollar-paying investments (such as U.S. Treasury bills and bonds) are held in massive amounts by foreign banks and governments. Dollar devaluation makes these investments less attractive and any disinvestment in these areas would sharply drive bond prices down and increase interest rates. The third reason why dollar devaluation makes recession more likely is that it effectively prevents the Federal Reserve from pushing U.S. interest rates much lower. Any additional Fed easing (inflation) would be seen as a signal of even further future dollar devaluation and even higher dollar prices for oil. Unfortunately, we will not be able to "inflate" our way out of this recession this time. We will simply have to take our lumps and let market forces liquidate the bulk of the malinvestments caused by the unprecedented Greenspan money bubble. This liquidation process will not be pretty but it is necessary to restore a sustainable economic recovery in the years ahead.

Don’t forget: Criminal america has the highest crime rates in the world. No other so-called ‘civilized’ nation even comes close.

Euro gains on dollar in official reserves...
FROM THE SUB-PRIME TO THE RIDICULOUS: HOW $100B VANISHED...
PAPER: TOP ECONOMIST SAYS AMERICA WILL PLUNGE INTO RECESSION...

UNDERSTANDING THE GREAT WALL STREET FRAUD (summarized)
*(12-30-07) The best and easiest to understand analogy, though not perfect, to the wall street markets is the kiting of checks at lightning computerized trading speed on which commissions are taken although there is nothing of real value underlying their fraudulent scheme.
*(12-31-07) The ubiquitous computerization of wall street functions, the enhancement/advance/integration of the said computer equipment/peripherals in terms of computing power and speed, along with the concomitant advance/sophistication of the programming concerning same has enhanced the ability of the frauds on wall street to effect their frauds with blinding speed vis-à-vis the funds entrusted to their care by way of programmed trades, ie., buy, sell, stop limits, etc.. An example (though not perfect) is illustrative:  Dow drops 200 points as programmed sell orders kick in with some not so fudged negative news. Nothing changes but the following day the market rises 205 points on programmed buy orders (a little higher despite the absence of any positive news). Hence, the huge swings which have become ever so more prevalent. Though nothing has changed, hundreds of millions of dollars without relation to any value added (in economic terms, service, etc.) is taken in commissions (percentages, points, spreads) by the frauds on wall street on huge computerized trading volume (hence, the multi-billion dollar bonuses on top of huge salaries, etc.). The fact is that these funds entrusted to them are so large that such computerized “buys” can simulate other than rational demand causing prices to rise solely to generate huge commissions to them and new funds coming in (as in a ponzi scheme). The corrupt government has been complicit in terms of false economic reports, legislation protecting the fraud (ie., exemption from RICO accountability, etc.), while the courts are also corrupt facilitators (new york, etc., and similarly don’t count on arbitration panels).  There was a time when transactions costs mattered in financial investment decisions. The trades/commissions are not a net positive for the economy but are indeed of great benefit to the recipients of same (who like termites eat away at other peoples’ money, and whose marginal propensity to consume is less than those allocating their monies/pensions/401ks/savings etc.; hence, the mess to follow). Finally, the NASDAQ has become the “safe haven” but in reality as in the dot.com bust days are just the great story without much fundamental understanding that keeps the fraudulent ball rolling.
*(1-01-08)
Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Very Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital via, ie., ipo’S), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

Video: 'The most conclusive evidence' Bhutto was shot December 31, 2007
Ron Paul indeed Out-Foxed (for now) December 31, 2007
United Nations Comic Books Designed to Brainwash Kids December 31, 2007
Ron Beats Rudy? New Hampshire could surprise a lot of people
December 31, 2007

CIA-ISI Created “Qaeda Network” Blamed for Pakistan Troubles

In Another One of Many Blunders (will the israelis sell same to ie., China as they did with missile technology, info, etc.) israel to have access to U.S. National Ballistic Missile Defense System

Israel to assassinate Haniya: Report

Knesset Report Blasts Israeli Military Failure

Countdown: Mobman giuliani Making Millions From Data Mining Company

Olmert’s Latest Excuse to Thwart Peace Process: Presses PA to Take Steps for Fighting Terror
Israel: Biggest Single Self-destructive Irony of Western History Perhaps the biggest single self-destructive irony of Western history is best understood by standing in the town square of Bethlehem, allowing one’s gaze to pass over the roof top of the church that covers the stable where Jesus was supposedly born, and let one’s eye drift into the blue sky beyond and thinking: How on earth could it be that the Christians, whose belief in the divine center around Jesus’ crucifixion carried out by Roman soldiers but done at the behest of the Jewish populace, could turn round nearly two millennia later and say to the Jews in effect: We buy the argument that you are God’s chosen people and this land is your land and we are going to turn it over to you as your “national home”, even though the Arabs or their forefathers have been living here since the Romans kicked the Jews out of Babylon after demolishing the Temple in AD 70. This is what British foreign secretary, Arthur Balfour, did in his famous Declaration, strongly backed by Prime Minister Lloyd George, a religious man who saw the Jewish cause as one that must be supported by Christian charity…..
US Must Re-Evaluate Its Self-destructive Relationship With Israel

(5-1/2/3/4/5-07) Blazing Full Moon and Lunatic wall street frauds rally, STAGFLATION, AS INFLATION ABOVE EXPECTATIONS (HIGHEST IN 16 YEARS), WEAK GROWTH BELOW EXPECTATIONS, Worthless Dollar Down [they’re printing them like they’re going out of style because they are (so much so that they’ve stopped reporting M3)], then there was also the Weimar Republic, the pre-1929 crash rally, but this is far worse. LEGENDARY VALUE INVESTOR JEREMY GRANTHAM, CHAIRMAN OF BOSTON FIRM GRANTHAM MAYO VAN OTTERLOO, SAYS WE ARE NOW SEEING THE FIRST WORLDWIDE BUBBLE IN HISTORY COVERING ALL ASSET CLASSES. First, realize that the criminal americans lie about everything, especially for money. One expert says that with near record lows against the Euro, Pound, etc., the translation into worthless dollars by multi-nationals artificially inflates profits/stock prices, but that is only part of the story. The Euro Next union brings the fraud to the european exchange rates, much like the carry trades in a ponzi-like commissionable paper scheme in Asia, which ultimately reverts to the mean (arbitrage) and as greenspan says, can’t last and will unravel into what would be tantamount to hot potato/musical chairs with someone holding the bag/precipitous decline/wiped out. The expert also correctly points out that there is now a total disconnect between the market and the u.s. economy which has and will continue to decline/weaken. The fact is also that although superior to the u.s., there are substantial structural problems inherent to the European economies. So absurd was this surge (like nutcase dumbya’s) that the higher oil prices rallied the transports.....riiiiight! Lunatic frauds on wall street rally on as bad business news can get, sales of previously owned homes take biggest tumble in two decades, consumer confidence down sharply , b**l s**t  (including fake economic reports-they lie about everything), higher oil prices, and, ie.,  ignoring reality regarding,  erosion in consumer sentiment and one-year inflation expectations at the highest level in 8 months, rising food and energy costs, Systemic Recession The US is sliding into a long-term economic downturn, ChinaMerica America owned the 20th century, but it won't own the 21st, Dollar Down, Gold to Soar ...Real Estate Fiz...Recession 2007 ...Catch 22 – Lower interest rates in u.s. would decimate already worthless dollar REALITY COURTESY OF http://www.trendsresearch.com, negative inflation/economic data and continue their backward looking frenzied rally mode despite higher oil prices, unexpected jump in jobless claims, mortgage defaults highest in 37 years, retailers warning that April same-store sales will be weak, and the largest rise in import prices, Citigroup to cut 17000 jobs and earnings down 11% but stock rallies, national mortgage delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 2.87% in Q1, sentiment down, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the current rate of inflation remains too high, and on previous stellar employment report from government ...riiiiight!..., (what about the real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by acturial/accounting), as previously u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!..., despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A info, both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street’s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week’s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it’s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who’ve been printing worthless dollars like they’re going out of style because they are (so much so that they’ve stopped reporting M3), remove words ‘additional firming’ is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don’t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,  previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds continues,  blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it’s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering ‘bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally’ (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)’ fueled by b**l s**t alone close only moderately lower to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 73/75/29/23, S&P up 3/9/3/3, and NASDAQ up 6/26/6/6, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody’s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What’s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds.  Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.).  BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don’t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month’s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you’re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low.  Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford’s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone.  Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they’ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.  Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious ‘Santa Claus rally’.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!  Total  bulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they’re booking sales to ‘straw men/companies’.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up  (OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOW  In other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.  MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in the  fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) …..riiiiight!….. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO’s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90’s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.  Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good …..riiiiight…..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they’re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn’t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected…..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming….. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News….. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight …..despite printing worthless dollars like they’re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can’t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn’t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Rupert Murdoch Bids $5B for Dow Jones

AP - Rupert Murdoch hasn't shrunk away from fights as he built News Corp. into a global media empire. But his surprise $5 billion bid for Dow Jones & Co., publisher of The Wall Street Journal, faces tough sledding after the company's controlling shareholders said they would block it.

Iowa Refinery Snags May Raise Gas Prices AP
BP CEO John Browne Resigns Amid Furor
AP
Stocks Up on Murdoch Bid for Dow Jones
AP
GM, Ford, Toyota, Honda Sales Drop
AP

After struggling to find their footing all morning and much of the afternoon Tuesday, stocks finally garnered some of the momentum that just helped propel stocks to their best monthly performance since 2003. The underlying bullish momentum vaulted the Dow to another record close, finishing the first trading day in May with its eighth gain over the last ten years.Absent a catalyst to get buying efforts back on track following a 4.9% decline in March pending home sales and a higher than expected prices paid component in today's ISM Index report feeding into inflation fears, oil prices spiking to session lows late in the day gave investors something to cheer about. Crude for June delivery closed down 2% at $64.40/bbl amid speculation tomorrow's weekly inventories report will show a build in crude supplies. The fact that the Energy sector did not relinquish much in the way of its intraday leadership was also noteworthy.Of the eight sectors finishing higher, Utilities (+1.1%) continued to provide the safest bet for investors unsure if the two-decade old adage "sell in May and go away" will hold true this year, especially since there is no reason for the stock market to have rallied so strongly in April based on deteriorating fundamentals.Some more M&A activity also helped to keep sellers sidelined into the close of trading. Dow Jones & Co. (DJ 56.30 +19.97) confirming receipt of an unsolicited $60 per share offer (or roughly $5 bln) from News Corp (NWS 22.99 -1.01) was the day's biggest surprise. Speculation about more consolidation throughout Publishing (+3.7%) helped to offset weakness among retailers like Circuit City (CC 16.55 -0.90), which lowered Q1 expectations and withdrew guidance, and Liz Claiborne (LIZ 37.13 -7.59), which handily missed analysts' expectations.Microsoft (MSFT 30.40 +0.46) also made news on the M&A front, and the bellwether's 1.5% surge was an integral part of the leadership exhibited by Technology Tuesday. Shareholders applauded reports that Microsoft may make a bid for 24/7 Real Media (TFSM 11.97 +2.02) to keep pace with similar deals made recently by Internet search-engine rivals.On the earnings front, Dow component Procter & Gamble (PG 62.98 -1.42) highlighted the list of reporters posting a 14% rise in Q3 profits and raising the lower end of its FY07 EPS outlook. Vulcan Materials (VMC 115.27 -8.40) also turned in a solid earnings report. Be that as it may, with PG and VMC running higher in anticipation of strong results yesterday, both were greeted with a sell-the-news response and were among their respective sectors' worst performing components. Consumer Staples and Materials were the only sectors failing to start the new month on an upbeat note. BTK +0.2% DJ30 +73.23 DJTA -0.1% DJUA +1.0% NASDAQ +6.44 NQ100 +0.3% SOX +0.1% SP400 +0.3% SP500 +3.93 XOI +0.2% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1624/1434/2.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1518/1723/1.68 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
 March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

 

Jeremy Grantham: All the World's a Bubble
By Brett Arends

How high will the Dow go? 15,000? 20,000? How about 36,000? While euphoria sweeps stock markets here and worldwide, there are at least a few voices of dissent. One, unsurprisingly, is legendary value investor Jeremy Grantham -- the man Dick Cheney, plus a lot of other rich people, trusts with his money. Grantham, chairman of Boston firm Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo, has been a voice of caution for years. But he has upped his concerns in his latest letter to shareholders. Grantham says we are now seeing the first worldwide bubble in history covering all asset classes.

Everything is in bubble territory, he says.

Everything.

 


'The bursting of this bubble will be across all countries and all assets.' -- Jeremy Grantham


 

"From Indian antiquities to modern Chinese art," he wrote in a letter to clients this week following a six-week world tour, "from land in Panama to Mayfair; from forestry, infrastructure and the junkiest bonds to mundane blue chips; it's bubble time!" "Everyone, everywhere is reinforcing one another," he wrote. "Wherever you travel you will hear it confirmed that 'they don't make any more land,' and that 'with these growth rates and low interest rates, equity markets must keep rising,' and 'private equity will continue to drive the markets.' "

As Grantham points out, a bubble needs two things: excellent fundamentals and easy money.

The mechanism is surprisingly simple," he wrote. "Perfect conditions create very strong 'animal spirits,' reflected statistically in a low risk premium. Widely available cheap credit offers investors the opportunity to act on their optimism." And it becomes self-sustaining. "The more leverage you take, the better you do; the better you do, the more leverage you take. A critical part of a bubble is the reinforcement you get for your very optimistic view from those around you." It's something to think about the next time you hear someone tell you that the stock market will keep rising simply because the world economy is doing so well. That would make sense only if we were paying a constant price for each unit of world GDP, instead of higher and higher prices for one slice of that GDP -- equity.

Grantham concludes that every asset class is expensive today compared with historic averages and compared with the cost of replacing it.

 

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington — First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. “I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,” said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. “The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,” Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. “Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.” Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent — the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. “The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,” BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. “People are being very cautious,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. “The housing crunch is now hurting.” At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers — Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. — reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. “This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,” Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks…..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.  Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,” U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production Flaw  WASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed’s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.  Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I’ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis …..riiiiight….. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don’t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it’s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $64; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again’ as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush’s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the “better than expectations” game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what’s up is down and what’s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they’ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin’ to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don’t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch  12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

              July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct  4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans’ spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn’t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren’t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There’s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O’Hara, “I’ll worry about that tomorrow” attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don’t share their bosses’ zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can’t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59½ years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I’ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125–149 Analysts’ Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(4-30-07) STAGFLATION, AS INFLATION ABOVE EXPECTATIONS (HIGHEST IN 16 YEARS), WEAK GROWTH BELOW EXPECTATIONS, Worthless Dollar Down [they’re printing them like they’re going out of style because they are (so much so that they’ve stopped reporting M3)], then there was also the Weimar Republic, the pre-1929 crash rally, but this is far worse. LEGENDARY VALUE INVESTOR JEREMY GRANTHAM, CHAIRMAN OF BOSTON FIRM GRANTHAM MAYO VAN OTTERLOO, SAYS WE ARE NOW SEEING THE FIRST WORLDWIDE BUBBLE IN HISTORY COVERING ALL ASSET CLASSES. First, realize that the criminal americans lie about everything, especially for money. One expert says that with near record lows against the Euro, Pound, etc., the translation into worthless dollars by multi-nationals artificially inflates profits/stock prices, but that is only part of the story. The Euro Next union brings the fraud to the european exchange rates, much like the carry trades in a ponzi-like commissionable paper scheme in Asia, which ultimately reverts to the mean (arbitrage) and as greenspan says, can’t last and will unravel into what would be tantamount to hot potato/musical chairs with someone holding the bag/precipitous decline/wiped out. The expert also correctly points out that there is now a total disconnect between the market and the u.s. economy which has and will continue to decline/weaken. The fact is also that although superior to the u.s., there are substantial structural problems inherent to the European economies. So absurd was this surge (like nutcase dumbya’s) that the higher oil prices rallied the transports.....riiiiight! Lunatic frauds on wall street rally on as bad business news can get, sales of previously owned homes take biggest tumble in two decades, consumer confidence down sharply , b**l s**t  (including fake economic reports-they lie about everything), higher oil prices, and, ie.,  ignoring reality regarding,  erosion in consumer sentiment and one-year inflation expectations at the highest level in 8 months, rising food and energy costs, Systemic Recession The US is sliding into a long-term economic downturn, ChinaMerica America owned the 20th century, but it won't own the 21st, Dollar Down, Gold to Soar ...Real Estate Fiz...Recession 2007 ...Catch 22 – Lower interest rates in u.s. would decimate already worthless dollar REALITY COURTESY OF http://www.trendsresearch.com, negative inflation/economic data and continue their backward looking frenzied rally mode despite higher oil prices, unexpected jump in jobless claims, mortgage defaults highest in 37 years, retailers warning that April same-store sales will be weak, and the largest rise in import prices, Citigroup to cut 17000 jobs and earnings down 11% but stock rallies, national mortgage delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 2.87% in Q1, sentiment down, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the current rate of inflation remains too high, and on previous stellar employment report from government ...riiiiight!..., (what about the real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by acturial/accounting), as previously u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!..., despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A info, both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street’s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week’s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it’s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who’ve been printing worthless dollars like they’re going out of style because they are (so much so that they’ve stopped reporting M3), remove words ‘additional firming’ is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don’t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,  previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds continues,  blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it’s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering ‘bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally’ (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)’ fueled by b**l s**t alone close only moderately lower to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average down 58, S&P down 12, and NASDAQ down 32, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody’s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What’s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds.  Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.).  BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don’t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month’s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you’re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low.  Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford’s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone.  Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they’ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.  Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious ‘Santa Claus rally’.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!  Total  bulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they’re booking sales to ‘straw men/companies’.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up  (OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOW  In other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.  MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in the  fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) …..riiiiight!….. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO’s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90’s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.  Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good …..riiiiight…..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they’re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn’t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected…..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming….. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News….. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight …..despite printing worthless dollars like they’re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can’t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn’t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Ford Exec Foresees Smaller Engines

AP - Susan Cischke admits that her vision is a little fuzzy when she looks more than two decades into the future, but she still sees an internal combustion engine, albeit one smaller, lighter and more fuel-efficient than the engines of today.

Circuit City Expects 1Q Loss AP
Stocks Fall As Traders Eye Economic Data
AP
Oil Prices Drop in Asian Trading
AP
Group: Wal-Mart Violates Workers' Rights
AP

After turning in such an impressive performance in April, it wasn't surprising to see investors finally start to question whether valuations would be sustainable over the near term, especially with the worst six months of the year [historically] beginning tomorrow.Before the opening bell sounded, participants were greeted with some encouraging news on the inflation front. March core PCE, the Fed's favored inflation gauge, was unchanged. That brought the year/year rate back down to 2.1% and closer to the Fed's comfort zone of below 2%, which we believe will be reached around mid-year to leave policy makers more room to address any economic concerns with some modest easing.Be that as it may, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq coming into today's action with respective gains of 6.2%, 5.2%, and 5.6% for the month, a rally built on a batch of quarterly earnings results that merely checked in better than lowered expectations offered little incentive for investors to keep forging ahead with the indices clearly running ahead of the fundamentals. As a reminder, earnings growth expectations for Q2 and Q3 still languish in the low single digits and, if the earnings game rules continue to hold true, the bar will be lowered even further if the economic outlook remains murky. Of the nine sectors losing ground, Materials (-1.6%) paced the way lower; but that could be expected since it ranks among this year's best performers.Consumer Discretionary (-1.3%) was in focus after RadioShack (RSH 29.14 +1.42) said Q1 profits soared five-fold. However, a softer than expected personal spending number earlier prompted some consolidation among several other retailers. Homebuilders were another weak spot after a government report showed that private residential construction fell by 1% in March.Energy turned in the third worst performance today, falling 1.2% in sympathy with a 1.1% decline in crude for June delivery, followed by a 1.0% drop in Technology. Both sectors ranking among April's top three in terms of performance also tempted investors to take some money off the table heading into a seasonally weak period for stocks.Consumer Staples was in focus following upbeat earnings reports from Wrigley (WWY 58.88 +3.83) and Alberto-Culver (ACV 24.33 +0.98), as well as an analyst upgrade on Colgate-Palmolive (CL 67.76 +0.72). Procter & Gamble (PG 64.51 1.53) and Avon Products (AVP 39.86 +0.35) running up ahead of their Tuesday-morning reports also provided a floor of support throughout most of the day. Nonetheless, not even the proclivity of the sector to outperform during periods of uncertainty or an economic slowdown was enough to keep it in positive territory.Telecom was the only sector to finish higher Monday, as Verizon Communications (VZ 38.18 +0.29) matched analysts' forecasts but added 1.7 mln wireless customers in Q1. Telecom was also the only sector that failed to partake in the April rally, closing out the month flat versus April gains of more than 4% on average for the remaining nine economic sectors. BTK -1.6% DJ30 -58.03 DJTA -1.7% DJUA -1.0% DOT -1.0% NASDAQ -32.12 NQ100 -1.2% R2K -1.8% SOX -1.2% SP400 -1.4% SP500 -11.70 XOI -1.0% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2172/895/2.03 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2379/910/1.50 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
 March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

 

Jeremy Grantham: All the World's a Bubble
By Brett Arends

How high will the Dow go? 15,000? 20,000? How about 36,000? While euphoria sweeps stock markets here and worldwide, there are at least a few voices of dissent. One, unsurprisingly, is legendary value investor Jeremy Grantham -- the man Dick Cheney, plus a lot of other rich people, trusts with his money. Grantham, chairman of Boston firm Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo, has been a voice of caution for years. But he has upped his concerns in his latest letter to shareholders. Grantham says we are now seeing the first worldwide bubble in history covering all asset classes.

Everything is in bubble territory, he says.

Everything.

 


'The bursting of this bubble will be across all countries and all assets.' -- Jeremy Grantham


 

"From Indian antiquities to modern Chinese art," he wrote in a letter to clients this week following a six-week world tour, "from land in Panama to Mayfair; from forestry, infrastructure and the junkiest bonds to mundane blue chips; it's bubble time!" "Everyone, everywhere is reinforcing one another," he wrote. "Wherever you travel you will hear it confirmed that 'they don't make any more land,' and that 'with these growth rates and low interest rates, equity markets must keep rising,' and 'private equity will continue to drive the markets.' "

As Grantham points out, a bubble needs two things: excellent fundamentals and easy money.

The mechanism is surprisingly simple," he wrote. "Perfect conditions create very strong 'animal spirits,' reflected statistically in a low risk premium. Widely available cheap credit offers investors the opportunity to act on their optimism." And it becomes self-sustaining. "The more leverage you take, the better you do; the better you do, the more leverage you take. A critical part of a bubble is the reinforcement you get for your very optimistic view from those around you." It's something to think about the next time you hear someone tell you that the stock market will keep rising simply because the world economy is doing so well. That would make sense only if we were paying a constant price for each unit of world GDP, instead of higher and higher prices for one slice of that GDP -- equity.

Grantham concludes that every asset class is expensive today compared with historic averages and compared with the cost of replacing it.

 

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington — First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. “I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,” said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. “The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,” Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. “Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.” Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent — the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. “The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,” BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. “People are being very cautious,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. “The housing crunch is now hurting.” At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers — Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. — reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. “This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,” Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks…..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.  Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,” U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production Flaw  WASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed’s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.  Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I’ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis …..riiiiight….. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don’t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it’s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $65; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again’ as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush’s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the “better than expectations” game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what’s up is down and what’s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they’ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin’ to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don’t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch  12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

              July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct  4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans’ spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn’t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren’t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There’s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O’Hara, “I’ll worry about that tomorrow” attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don’t share their bosses’ zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can’t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59½ years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I’ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125–149 Analysts’ Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(4-27-07) STAGFLATION AS INFLATION ABOVE EXPECTATIONS (HIGHEST IN 16 YEARS), WEAK GROWTH BELOW EXPECTATIONS, Worthless Dollar Down, then there was also the Weimar Republic, the pre-1929 crash rally, but this is far worse. LEGENDARY VALUE INVESTOR JEREMY GRANTHAM, CHAIRMAN OF BOSTON FIRM GRANTHAM MAYO VAN OTTERLOO, SAYS WE ARE NOW SEEING THE FIRST WORLDWIDE BUBBLE IN HISTORY COVERING ALL ASSET CLASSES. First, realize that the criminal americans lie about everything, especially for money. One expert says that with near record lows against the Euro, Pound, etc., the translation into worthless dollars by multi-nationals artificially inflates profits/stock prices, but that is only part of the story. The Euro Next union brings the fraud to the european exchange rates, much like the carry trades in a ponzi-like commissionable paper scheme in Asia, which ultimately reverts to the mean (arbitrage) and as greenspan says, can’t last and will unravel into what would be tantamount to hot potato/musical chairs with someone holding the bag/precipitous decline/wiped out. The expert also correctly points out that there is now a total disconnect between the market and the u.s. economy which has and will continue to decline/weaken. The fact is also that although superior to the u.s., there are substantial structural problems inherent to the European economies. So absurd was this surge (like nutcase dumbya’s) that the higher oil prices rallied the transports.....riiiiight! Lunatic frauds on wall street rally on as bad business news can get, sales of previously owned homes take biggest tumble in two decades, consumer confidence down sharply , b**l s**t  (including fake economic reports-they lie about everything), higher oil prices, and, ie.,  ignoring reality regarding,  erosion in consumer sentiment and one-year inflation expectations at the highest level in 8 months, rising food and energy costs, Systemic Recession The US is sliding into a long-term economic downturn, ChinaMerica America owned the 20th century, but it won't own the 21st, Dollar Down, Gold to Soar ...Real Estate Fiz...Recession 2007 ...Catch 22 – Lower interest rates in u.s. would decimate already worthless dollar REALITY COURTESY OF http://www.trendsresearch.com, negative inflation/economic data and continue their backward looking frenzied rally mode despite higher oil prices, unexpected jump in jobless claims, mortgage defaults highest in 37 years, retailers warning that April same-store sales will be weak, and the largest rise in import prices, Citigroup to cut 17000 jobs and earnings down 11% but stock rallies, national mortgage delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 2.87% in Q1, sentiment down, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the current rate of inflation remains too high, and on previous stellar employment report from government ...riiiiight!..., (what about the real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by acturial/accounting), as previously u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!..., despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A info, both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street’s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week’s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it’s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who’ve been printing worthless dollars like they’re going out of style because they are (so much so that they’ve stopped reporting M3), remove words ‘additional firming’ is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don’t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,  previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds continues,  blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it’s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering ‘bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally’ (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)’ fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 15, S&P down 1, and NASDAQ up 3, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody’s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What’s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds.  Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.).  BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don’t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month’s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you’re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low.  Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford’s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone.  Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they’ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.  Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious ‘Santa Claus rally’.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!  Total  bulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they’re booking sales to ‘straw men/companies’.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up  (OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOW  In other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.  MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in the  fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) …..riiiiight!….. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO’s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90’s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.  Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good …..riiiiight…..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they’re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn’t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected…..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming….. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News….. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight …..despite printing worthless dollars like they’re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can’t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn’t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Economy Crawls, Raising Recession Fears

AP - The worst economic growth in four years is raising concern that troubles in the U.S. housing market will spread and throw the country into a recession before the year is out.

FDA Agents Raid Pet Food Plant, Offices AP
Adviser Ordered to Start Fraud Sentence
AP
AT&T CEO Whitacre Says He Will Retire
AP
FDA Rejects Merck's Vioxx Successor
AP

The major averages finished mixed and relatively flat Friday as investors looked lethargic closing out another impressive week of sizable gains fueled by this quarter's busiest week of earnings. Nonetheless, sellers armed with a weak GDP report, a mixed batch of earnings, and surging oil prices tried to fight the market's underlying bullish trend only to come up short, again.As has been the case throughout the Dow's virtually unabated month-long run into record territory, gains from just a handful of blue chips were just enough to help the average finish higher for the 19th time in 21 tries.Follow-through momentum in 3M Co (MMM 81.72 +1.27), and Honeywell (HON 54.87 +1.18) soaring 2.2% to a multi-year high, accounted for the bulk of the price-weighted index's advance; but fellow component Microsoft (MSFT 30.08 +0.98) was the day's headliner and Dow's best performer. Last night, the tech bellwether posted a 65% jump in Q3 profits that were a record amid strong Vista sales and provided reassuring guidance. A quiet 1.7% surge in shares of Cisco Systems (CSCO 26.99 +0.44), a suggested holding in the Briefing.com Active Portfolio, provided additional sector support. Dell (DELL 25.21 +0.30) was another tech winner, jumping 1.2% after CEO Michael Dell sent an email to the company's employees outlining steps to "re-ignite" growth. Minimizing the tech sector's performance, though, was weakness across the board from chip stocks after Broadcom (BRCM 33.40 -1.46) said it has limited visibility into near-term results. That news ran counter to what larger competitor Texas Instruments (TXN 34.79 -0.37) said earlier in the week. The PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index surged 3.1% on Tuesday after TXN cited improved demand predicated on the end to last year's inventory correction.The biggest surprise of the day was the economically-sensitive Industrial sector's ability to shrug off a weaker than expected advance read of 1.3% on Q1 GDP. While the data served as a reminder that the decent earnings trends for Q1 may not continue into Q2 and Q3, investors already anticipating signs of a slowdown and perhaps another round of supportive M&A news come Monday found just enough momentum to look past the dated nature of the GDP data.The Industrial sector got its biggest lift from a 2.7% surge in Dow component General Electric (GE 36.79 +0.95), which moved after a Citigroup analyst said GE should spin off its NBC and GE Money units. Environmental Services was the day's best performing S&P industry group (+7.6%) after Waste Management (WMI 38.21 +2.86) followed up a 19% rise in Q1 profits by raising its full-year forecasts. Construction & Farming was another source of sector support, getting a huge lift from Cummins Inc. (CMI 96.15 +10.16). The stock soared 12% to an all-time high after it handily beat expectations and boosted its FY07 profit outlook. DJ30 +15.44 NASDAQ +2.75 SP500 -0.18 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1836/1166/2.11 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1854/1392/1.40 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
 March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

 

Jeremy Grantham: All the World's a Bubble
By Brett Arends

How high will the Dow go? 15,000? 20,000? How about 36,000? While euphoria sweeps stock markets here and worldwide, there are at least a few voices of dissent. One, unsurprisingly, is legendary value investor Jeremy Grantham -- the man Dick Cheney, plus a lot of other rich people, trusts with his money. Grantham, chairman of Boston firm Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo, has been a voice of caution for years. But he has upped his concerns in his latest letter to shareholders. Grantham says we are now seeing the first worldwide bubble in history covering all asset classes.

Everything is in bubble territory, he says.

Everything.

 


'The bursting of this bubble will be across all countries and all assets.' -- Jeremy Grantham


 

"From Indian antiquities to modern Chinese art," he wrote in a letter to clients this week following a six-week world tour, "from land in Panama to Mayfair; from forestry, infrastructure and the junkiest bonds to mundane blue chips; it's bubble time!" "Everyone, everywhere is reinforcing one another," he wrote. "Wherever you travel you will hear it confirmed that 'they don't make any more land,' and that 'with these growth rates and low interest rates, equity markets must keep rising,' and 'private equity will continue to drive the markets.' "

As Grantham points out, a bubble needs two things: excellent fundamentals and easy money.

The mechanism is surprisingly simple," he wrote. "Perfect conditions create very strong 'animal spirits,' reflected statistically in a low risk premium. Widely available cheap credit offers investors the opportunity to act on their optimism." And it becomes self-sustaining. "The more leverage you take, the better you do; the better you do, the more leverage you take. A critical part of a bubble is the reinforcement you get for your very optimistic view from those around you." It's something to think about the next time you hear someone tell you that the stock market will keep rising simply because the world economy is doing so well. That would make sense only if we were paying a constant price for each unit of world GDP, instead of higher and higher prices for one slice of that GDP -- equity.

Grantham concludes that every asset class is expensive today compared with historic averages and compared with the cost of replacing it.

 

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington — First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. “I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,” said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. “The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,” Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. “Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.” Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent — the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. “The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,” BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. “People are being very cautious,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. “The housing crunch is now hurting.” At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers — Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. — reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. “This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,” Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks…..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.  Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,” U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production Flaw  WASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed’s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.  Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I’ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis …..riiiiight….. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don’t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it’s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $66; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again’ as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush’s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the “better than expectations” game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what’s up is down and what’s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they’ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin’ to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don’t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch  12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

              July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct  4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans’ spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn’t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren’t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There’s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O’Hara, “I’ll worry about that tomorrow” attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don’t share their bosses’ zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can’t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59½ years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I’ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125–149 Analysts’ Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(4-26-07) There was the Weimar Republic, the pre-1929 crash rally, but this is far worse. First, realize that the criminal americans lie about everything, especially for money. One expert says that with near record lows against the Euro, Pound, etc., the translation into worthless dollars by multi-nationals artificially inflates profits/stock prices, but that is only part of the story. The Euro Next union brings the fraud to the european exchange rates, much like the carry trades in a ponzi-like commissionable paper scheme in Asia, which ultimately reverts to the mean (arbitrage) and as greenspan says, can’t last and will unravel into what would be tantamount to hot potato/musical chairs with someone holding the bag/precipitous decline/wiped out. The expert also correctly points out that there is now a total disconnect between the market and the u.s. economy which has and will continue to decline/weaken. The fact is also that although superior to the u.s., there are substantial structural problems inherent to the European economies. So absurd was this surge (like nutcase dumbya’s) that the higher oil prices rallied the transports.....riiiiight! Lunatic frauds on wall street rally on as bad business news can get, sales of previously owned homes take biggest tumble in two decades, consumer confidence down sharply , b**l s**t  (including fake economic reports-they lie about everything), higher oil prices, and, ie.,  ignoring reality regarding,  erosion in consumer sentiment and one-year inflation expectations at the highest level in 8 months, rising food and energy costs, Systemic Recession The US is sliding into a long-term economic downturn, ChinaMerica America owned the 20th century, but it won't own the 21st, Dollar Down, Gold to Soar ...Real Estate Fiz...Recession 2007 ...Catch 22 – Lower interest rates in u.s. would decimate already worthless dollar REALITY COURTESY OF http://www.trendsresearch.com, negative inflation/economic data and continue their backward looking frenzied rally mode despite higher oil prices, unexpected jump in jobless claims, mortgage defaults highest in 37 years, retailers warning that April same-store sales will be weak, and the largest rise in import prices, Citigroup to cut 17000 jobs and earnings down 11% but stock rallies, national mortgage delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 2.87% in Q1, sentiment down, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the current rate of inflation remains too high, and on previous stellar employment report from government ...riiiiight!..., (what about the real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by acturial/accounting), as previously u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!..., despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A info, both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street’s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week’s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it’s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who’ve been printing worthless dollars like they’re going out of style because they are (so much so that they’ve stopped reporting M3), remove words ‘additional firming’ is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don’t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,  previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds continues,  blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it’s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering ‘bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally’ (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)’ fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 15, S&P down 1, and NASDAQ up 6, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody’s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What’s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds.  Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.).  BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don’t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month’s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you’re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low.  Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford’s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone.  Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they’ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.  Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious ‘Santa Claus rally’.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!  Total  bulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they’re booking sales to ‘straw men/companies’.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up  (OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOW  In other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.  MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in the  fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) …..riiiiight!….. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO’s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90’s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.  Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good …..riiiiight…..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they’re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn’t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected…..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming….. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News….. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight …..despite printing worthless dollars like they’re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can’t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn’t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Microsoft's Vista Sales Boost 3Q Profit

AP - Windows Vista buoyed Microsoft Corp.'s quarterly results, easing fears that the new operating system is too pricey, requires too many hardware upgrades and doesn't work with other companies' applications.

Exxon Mobil 1Q Profit Rises 10 Percent AP
Oil Prices Climb Above $65 a Barrel
AP
No Charges Against Frist in Stock Sale
AP
Ford 1Q Loss Narrows As Revenue Rises
AP

With the Dow soaring more than 800 points over the last four weeks, logging gains in 18 of the last 20 sessions, and finally eclipsing the psychologically significant 13,000 mark yesterday, it wasn't surprising to see blue chips take a bit of a breather Thursday. Nonetheless, a sizable gain from one of the price-weighted index's most expensive names again helped the Dow close at a new all-time high. Before the bell, 3M Co. (MMM 80.52 +3.55) handily topped Wall Street forecasts with a 52% rise in Q1 profits and reaffirmed its FY07 outlook, becoming the Dow's best performer. In fact, if it weren't for a 4.6% rally in 3M shares, the Dow would have closed in negative territory. Fellow Dow component General Motors (GM 32.40 1.33) was the index's next best performer, surging 4.3% after rival Ford Motor (F 8.21 +0.33) posted a narrower than expected Q1 loss that gave investors hope that GM will also surprise the street. Despite a late-day downturn in oil prices, Exxon Mobil (XOM 80.56 +0.64) turning in a commendable performance was also noteworthy. The world's largest publicly-traded component closed at a new all-time high after shareholders applauded better than expected earnings even though the average price of U.S. crude was 8% lower in Q1 versus last year.Of the four sectors finishing with gains, Technology was really the only bright spot following a blowout report from Apple (AAPL 98.84 +3.49). Last night, Apple posted an 88% jump in Q2 earnings on robust iPod sales and surged as much as 7.5% intraday before finishing at an all-time high. Turning in an even better performance on the tech-heavy Nasdaq, though, was Amazon.com (AMZN 62.78 +5.97), which tacked a 10.5% gain onto yesterday's giant 27% surge.

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
 March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington — First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. “I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,” said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. “The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,” Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. “Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.” Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent — the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. “The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,” BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. “People are being very cautious,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. “The housing crunch is now hurting.” At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers — Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. — reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. “This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,” Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks…..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.  Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,” U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production Flaw  WASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed’s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.  Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I’ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis …..riiiiight….. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don’t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it’s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $65; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again’ as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush’s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the “better than expectations” game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what’s up is down and what’s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they’ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin’ to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don’t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch  12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

              July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct  4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans’ spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn’t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren’t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There’s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O’Hara, “I’ll worry about that tomorrow” attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don’t share their bosses’ zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can’t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59½ years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I’ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125–149 Analysts’ Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(4-25-07) There was the Weimar Republic, the pre-1929 crash rally, but this is far worse. First, realize that the criminal americans lie about everything, especially for money. One expert says that with near record lows against the Euro, Pound, etc., the translation into worthless dollars by multi-nationals artificially inflates profits/stock prices, but that is only part of the story. The Euro Next union brings the fraud to the european exchange rates, much like the carry trades in a ponzi-like commissionable paper scheme in Asia, which ultimately reverts to the mean (arbitrage) and as greenspan says, can’t last and will unravel into what would be tantamount to hot potato/musical chairs with someone holding the bag/precipitous decline/wiped out. The expert also correctly points out that there is now a total disconnect between the market and the u.s. economy which has and will continue to decline/weaken. The fact is also that although superior to the u.s., there are substantial structural problems inherent to the European economies. So absurd was this surge (like nutcase dumbya’s) that the higher oil prices rallied the transports.....riiiiight! Lunatic frauds on wall street rally on as bad business news can get, sales of previously owned homes take biggest tumble in two decades, consumer confidence down sharply , b**l s**t  (including fake economic reports-they lie about everything), higher oil prices, and, ie.,  ignoring reality regarding,  erosion in consumer sentiment and one-year inflation expectations at the highest level in 8 months, rising food and energy costs, Systemic Recession The US is sliding into a long-term economic downturn, ChinaMerica America owned the 20th century, but it won't own the 21st, Dollar Down, Gold to Soar ...Real Estate Fiz...Recession 2007 ...Catch 22 – Lower interest rates in u.s. would decimate already worthless dollar REALITY COURTESY OF http://www.trendsresearch.com, negative inflation/economic data and continue their backward looking frenzied rally mode despite higher oil prices, unexpected jump in jobless claims, mortgage defaults highest in 37 years, retailers warning that April same-store sales will be weak, and the largest rise in import prices, Citigroup to cut 17000 jobs and earnings down 11% but stock rallies, national mortgage delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 2.87% in Q1, sentiment down, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the current rate of inflation remains too high, and on previous stellar employment report from government ...riiiiight!..., (what about the real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by acturial/accounting), as previously u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!..., despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A info, both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street’s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week’s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it’s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who’ve been printing worthless dollars like they’re going out of style because they are (so much so that they’ve stopped reporting M3), remove words ‘additional firming’ is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don’t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,  previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds continues,  blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it’s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering ‘bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally’ (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)’ fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 135.95, S&P up 15.01, and NASDAQ up 23.35, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody’s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What’s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds.  Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.).  BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don’t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month’s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you’re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low.  Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford’s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone.  Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they’ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.  Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious ‘Santa Claus rally’.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!  Total  bulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they’re booking sales to ‘straw men/companies’.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up  (OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOW  In other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.  MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in the  fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) …..riiiiight!….. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO’s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90’s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.  Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good …..riiiiight…..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they’re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn’t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected…..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming….. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News….. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight …..despite printing worthless dollars like they’re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can’t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn’t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Investors Hope for Continued Rise on Dow
AP - With the Dow Jones industrial average moving past the 13,000 mark for the first time, investors will likely be searching for a catalyst to send the markets higher.

Nissan's 1Q Profit Plunges 54 Percent AP
Oil Prices Hover Near $66 a Barrel
AP
Delta to Exit Bankruptcy Next Week
AP
China: U.S. to Help Probe Wheat Gluten
AP

Finally, the wait is over, as the attraction of a psychologically important number such as 13,000 on the Dow helped underpin a bullish bias right out of the gate and well into the close. All three major indices finished just off their highs but averaged a one-day gain of roughly 1.0%.While corporate profits continued to pour in better than analysts' lowered expectations, arming the bulls with enough momentum to power the Dow further into record territory, it is worth noting that news other than earnings also had a profound effect on the blue-chip index. Alcoa (AA 35.76 +1.81) soared 5.3% after saying it will explore the possible sale of its packaging unit. Another example was IBM (IBM 101.46 +2.97), which nearly matched yesterday's surprise 3.4% surge following very upbeat buyback news.Nonetheless, more evidence that Wall Street analysts were overly pessimistic going into the Q1 earnings season continued to provide a floor of support for stocks even though economic trends remain worrisome.On the economic front, March durable goods rose a stronger than expected 3.4%, boosted significantly by aircraft orders which also helped Boeing (BA 94.69 +1.02) shareholders look past management's conservative guidance. Even though the headline durable goods number combined with an upward revision to the February figure still doesn't wipe out the huge 8.8% drop in January, investors found solace in the fact that core capital equipment orders bounced back after two months of declines with a healthy 4.7% increase. Non-defense capital goods orders excluding transportation provide a clearer read on underlying business investment.Investors were also eyeing the Fed's Beige Book to see what it may or may not say about the economy. However, after the report to be used at the May 9 FOMC meeting showed "modest or moderate" expansion, "only modest overall wage increases," and generally stable consumer prices, stocks caught another wave of buying interest.A bidding war taking shape that is likely to result in the largest banking deal ever was also noteworthy. Brokerage stocks got a lift after a consortium led by the Royal Bank of Scotland announced a $98 bln counterbid to Barclays' (BCS 58.47 +1.62) $91 bln offer for ABN Amro (ABN 49.77 +2.37) earlier in the week.With the market already questioning whether gasoline supplies will be sufficient by the start of the summer driving season, an 11th straight weekly decline in inventories, and refinery utilization falling to 87.8%, boosting oil prices nearly 2.0%, still wasn't enough to deter investors. Crude for June delivery closed near $65.80/bbl.  The Energy sector surged more than 2.0%, providing some influential leadership as the day's best performing sector.Technology also provided notable leadership to the upside as investors scooped up bellwethers like Apple (AAPL 95.34 +2.10) and Qualcomm (QCOM 45.34 +0.98) in anticipation of more earnings surprises in the what is expected to be one of the largest contributors to profit growth on the S&P 500 this year.Consumer Discretionary was another bright spot Wednesday, getting its biggest boost from Amazon.com (AMZN 56.81 +12.06), which soared 27% after management raised its full-year outlook and said Q1 profits more than doubled. DJ30 +135.95 NASDAQ +23.35 SP500 +15.01 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1251/1827/2.69 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 943/2329/1.67 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
 March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington — First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. “I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,” said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. “The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,” Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. “Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.” Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent — the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. “The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,” BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. “People are being very cautious,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. “The housing crunch is now hurting.” At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers — Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. — reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. “This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,” Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks…..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.  Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,” U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production Flaw  WASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed’s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.  Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I’ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis …..riiiiight….. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don’t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it’s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $64; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again’ as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush’s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the “better than expectations” game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what’s up is down and what’s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they’ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin’ to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don’t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch  12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

              July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct  4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans’ spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn’t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren’t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There’s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O’Hara, “I’ll worry about that tomorrow” attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don’t share their bosses’ zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can’t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59½ years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I’ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125–149 Analysts’ Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(4-24-07) Lunatic frauds on wall street rally on as bad business news can get, sales of previously owned homes take biggest tumble in two decades, consumer confidence down sharply , b**l s**t  (including fake economic reports-they lie about everything), higher oil prices, and, ie.,  ignoring reality regarding,  erosion in consumer sentiment and one-year inflation expectations at the highest level in 8 months, rising food and energy costs, Systemic Recession The US is sliding into a long-term economic downturn, ChinaMerica America owned the 20th century, but it won't own the 21st, Dollar Down, Gold to Soar ...Real Estate Fiz...Recession 2007 ...Catch 22 – Lower interest rates in u.s. would decimate already worthless dollar REALITY COURTESY OF http://www.trendsresearch.com, negative inflation/economic data and continue their backward looking frenzied rally mode despite higher oil prices, unexpected jump in jobless claims, mortgage defaults highest in 37 years, retailers warning that April same-store sales will be weak, and the largest rise in import prices, Citigroup to cut 17000 jobs and earnings down 11% but stock rallies, national mortgage delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 2.87% in Q1, sentiment down, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the current rate of inflation remains too high, and on previous stellar employment report from government ...riiiiight!..., (what about the real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by acturial/accounting), as previously u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!..., despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A info, both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street’s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week’s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it’s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who’ve been printing worthless dollars like they’re going out of style because they are (so much so that they’ve stopped reporting M3), remove words ‘additional firming’ is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don’t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,  previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds continues,  blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it’s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering ‘bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally’ (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)’ fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 34.54, S&P down .52, and NASDAQ up .87, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody’s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What’s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds.  Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.).  BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don’t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month’s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you’re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low.  Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford’s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone.  Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they’ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.  Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious ‘Santa Claus rally’.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!  Total  bulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they’re booking sales to ‘straw men/companies’.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up  (OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOW  In other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.  MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in the  fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) …..riiiiight!….. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO’s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90’s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.  Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good …..riiiiight…..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they’re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn’t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected…..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming….. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News….. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight …..despite printing worthless dollars like they’re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can’t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn’t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Options Troubles at Apple Remain
AP - Apple Inc., on a tear with its popular iPod players and Macintosh computers, is expected to report strong quarterly results Wednesday but will face lingering worries over the role its iconic CEO played in its stock options backdating troubles.

Amazon.com 1Q Profit More Than Doubles AP
GM Says Profit More Important Than Sales
AP
Sun Microsystems Rings Up 3Q Profit
AP
Stocks Recover, Close Mixed on Earnings
AP

     Today’s market close was such a joke, no further commentary is warranted.

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
 March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington — First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. “I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,” said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. “The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,” Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. “Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.” Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent — the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. “The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,” BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. “People are being very cautious,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. “The housing crunch is now hurting.” At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers — Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. — reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. “This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,” Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks…..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.  Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,” U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production Flaw  WASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed’s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.  Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I’ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis …..riiiiight….. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don’t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it’s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $64; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again’ as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush’s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the “better than expectations” game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what’s up is down and what’s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they’ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin’ to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don’t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch  12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

              July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct  4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans’ spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn’t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren’t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There’s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O’Hara, “I’ll worry about that tomorrow” attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don’t share their bosses’ zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can’t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59½ years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I’ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125–149 Analysts’ Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(4-23-07) Lunatic frauds on wall street only modestly lower relative to reality, b**l s**t  (including fake economic reports-they lie about everything), higher oil prices, and, ie.,  ignoring reality regarding,  erosion in consumer sentiment and one-year inflation expectations at the highest level in 8 months, rising food and energy costs, Systemic Recession The US is sliding into a long-term economic downturn, ChinaMerica America owned the 20th century, but it won't own the 21st, Dollar Down, Gold to Soar ...Real Estate Fiz...Recession 2007 ...Catch 22 – Lower interest rates in u.s. would decimate already worthless dollar REALITY COURTESY OF http://www.trendsresearch.com, negative inflation/economic data and continue their backward looking frenzied rally mode despite higher oil prices, unexpected jump in jobless claims, mortgage defaults highest in 37 years, retailers warning that April same-store sales will be weak, and the largest rise in import prices, Citigroup to cut 17000 jobs and earnings down 11% but stock rallies, national mortgage delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 2.87% in Q1, sentiment down, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the current rate of inflation remains too high, and on previous stellar employment report from government ...riiiiight!..., (what about the real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by acturial/accounting), as previously u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!..., despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A info, both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street’s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week’s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it’s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who’ve been printing worthless dollars like they’re going out of style because they are (so much so that they’ve stopped reporting M3), remove words ‘additional firming’ is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don’t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,  previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds continues,  blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it’s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering ‘bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally’ (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)’ fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average down 42.58, S&P down 3.42, and NASDAQ down 2.72, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody’s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What’s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds.  Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.).  BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don’t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month’s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you’re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low.  Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford’s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone.  Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they’ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.  Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious ‘Santa Claus rally’.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!  Total  bulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they’re booking sales to ‘straw men/companies’.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up  (OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOW  In other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.  MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in the  fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) …..riiiiight!….. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO’s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90’s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.  Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good …..riiiiight…..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they’re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn’t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected…..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming….. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News….. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight …..despite printing worthless dollars like they’re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can’t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn’t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Toyota Tops GM in 1Q Global Auto Sales
AP - Toyota Motor Corp. became the world's top auto seller in the first three months of the year, passing rival General Motors Corp. for the first time, the Japanese automaker said Tuesday.

Dr Pepper Hopes MTV Show Will Sell Soda AP
Boston Scientific Profit Falls 64 Pct.
AP
Texas Instruments Shares Surge 9.4 Pct.
AP
China: U.S. Piracy Complaint May Hurt Ties
AP

  Stocks closed modestly lower Tuesday as a market ripe for a pullback lacked the overwhelming evidence necessary to extend recent market gains. With the Dow closing at record highs over the previous three sessions and garnering its entire 4% year-to-date advance over the last three weeks, it wasn't surprising to see investors take some money off the table. The Dow came within 16 points of hitting the 13,000 milestone earlier in the day, getting a lift from analyst upgrades on IBM (IBM 95.27 +0.69) and Caterpillar (CAT 71.85 +0.03), two of the price-weighted index's most expensive names.However, valuation concerns that prompted analyst downgrades on ExxonMobil (XOM 79.24 -0.52) and Pfizer (PFE 26.35 -0.62), coupled with an afternoon sell-off in fellow Dow component General Motors (GM 30.68 -1.00), pushed the Dow into the red for good. GM's Vice Chairman Bob Lutz said there has been some spillover of the mortgage industry meltdown into the auto business, giving investors another reason to question the sustainability of the market's recent run-up.As if valuations weren't already posing a concern, oil prices surging 2.6% and flirting with $66/bbl acted as an additional headwind for the bulls. Crude for June delivery closed at $65.77/bbl amid potential supply disruptions from Nigeria following its presidential elections over the weekend. Oil's rise did lure investors into energy names; but ExxonMobil's substantial influence on the sector offset gains in everything from Drillers to Refiners.Other news getting overshadowed Monday was another wave of M&A. Barclays PLC (BCS 58.27 -1.73) finally unveiled a proposal to acquire ABN Amro NV (ABN 48.16 -1.13) for $91 bln while AstraZeneca PLC (AZN 56.00 -3.04) said it will buy MedImmune (MEDI 56.57 +8.56) for $15.6 bln. While both deals offered some reassurance that companies remain confident about the business climate, the fact that Friday's rally was fueled in part by anticipation Monday would bring another round of supportive M&A activity, and that both deals had been rumored for weeks, resulted in a muted response from investors. As a reminder, MedImmune said it was exploring strategic alternatives on April 12 while Barclays confirmed talks with ABN Amro over a potential blockbuster merger in March.The absence of leadership from Financials and Technology, which only trailed Telecom as today's worst performing sectors, were among the biggest reasons behind the market taking a breather. Better than expected earnings from both sectors last week were among the catalysts for the market's outperformance.Utilities was the only sector that finished in positive territory; but a 0.7% advance on one of the S&P 500's least influential sectors, and an area defensive in nature no less, merely underscored the hesitation on the part of buyers Monday. BTK +1.5% DJ30 -42.58 DJTA -0.9% DJUA +0.6% DOT -0.1% NASDAQ -2.72 NQ100 +0.2% R2K -0.2% SOX -0.7% SP400 +0.2% SP500 -3.42 XOI +0.1% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1766/1294/1.93 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1718/1551/1.38 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
 March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington — First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. “I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,” said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. “The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,” Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. “Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.” Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent — the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. “The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,” BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. “People are being very cautious,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. “The housing crunch is now hurting.” At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers — Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. — reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. “This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,” Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks…..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.  Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,” U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production Flaw  WASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed’s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.  Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I’ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis …..riiiiight….. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don’t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it’s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $65; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again’ as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush’s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the “better than expectations” game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what’s up is down and what’s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they’ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin’ to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don’t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch  12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

              July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct  4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans’ spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn’t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren’t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There’s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O’Hara, “I’ll worry about that tomorrow” attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don’t share their bosses’ zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can’t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59½ years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I’ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125–149 Analysts’ Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(4-20-07) Lunatic frauds on wall street rallying on short-covering, b**l s**t  (including fake economic reports-they lie about everything), higher oil prices, and, ie.,  ignoring reality regarding,  erosion in consumer sentiment and one-year inflation expectations at the highest level in 8 months, rising food and energy costs, Systemic Recession The US is sliding into a long-term economic downturn, ChinaMerica America owned the 20th century, but it won't own the 21st, Dollar Down, Gold to Soar ...Real Estate Fiz...Recession 2007 ...Catch 22 – Lower interest rates in u.s. would decimate already worthless dollar REALITY COURTESY OF http://www.trendsresearch.com, negative inflation/economic data and continue their backward looking frenzied rally mode despite higher oil prices, unexpected jump in jobless claims, mortgage defaults highest in 37 years, retailers warning that April same-store sales will be weak, and the largest rise in import prices, Citigroup to cut 17000 jobs and earnings down 11% but stock rallies, national mortgage delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 2.87% in Q1, sentiment down, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the current rate of inflation remains too high, and on previous stellar employment report from government ...riiiiight!..., (what about the real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by acturial/accounting), as previously u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!..., despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A info, both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street’s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week’s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it’s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who’ve been printing worthless dollars like they’re going out of style because they are (so much so that they’ve stopped reporting M3), remove words ‘additional firming’ is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don’t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,  previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds continues,  blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it’s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering ‘bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally’ (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)’ fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 153.35, S&P up 13.62, and NASDAQ up 21.04, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody’s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What’s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds.  Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.).  BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don’t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month’s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you’re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low.  Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford’s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone.  Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they’ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.  Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious ‘Santa Claus rally’.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!  Total  bulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they’re booking sales to ‘straw men/companies’.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up  (OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOW  In other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.  MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in the  fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) …..riiiiight!….. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO’s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90’s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.  Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good …..riiiiight…..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they’re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn’t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected…..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming….. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News….. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight …..despite printing worthless dollars like they’re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can’t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn’t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Los Angeles Times to Cut About 150 Jobs AP
McDonald's 1Q Profit Climbs 22 Percent
AP
World Bank Panel to Discuss Wolfowitz
AP
Ruling Puts Texas Vioxx Lawsuits on Hold
AP

  Stocks charged out of the gate Friday as buyers rallied around another batch of better than expected quarterly results while sellers, expecting a worst-case scenario for the Q1 earnings season, ran for cover. For a third straight day the Dow closed in record territory, just 38 points away from hitting the 13,000 milestone, and finished the week up 2.8%. The S&P 500, whose five-day winning streak was snapped yesterday, turned in the next best performance among the majors, while the Nasdaq, fresh off its third consecutive decline, closed just below a new six-year high. All 10 economic sectors closed higher. With analysts ratcheting their Q1 EPS growth estimates down from almost 9% three months ago to just above 3%, and several influential names being eyed for more clarity about growth prospects, Caterpillar (CAT 71.82 +3.20) was among the day's biggest surprises after handily topping Wall Street expectations and raising its full-year outlook. Fellow Dow component Honeywell (HON 51.40 +2.34) turned in an even stronger performance, soaring 4.8% to a multi-year high after posting a 21% rise in Q1 earnings and then boosting its 2007 guidance as well. Providing additional support for the Industrials sector were transportation stocks, which completely ignored a 2.7% surge in oil prices. The Dow Jones Transportation Average, an economically-sensitive proxy, also closed at an all-time high. Taking full advantage of higher oil prices, though, was Energy. Crude for May delivery, which expired today, surged 2.7% to $ 63.52/bbl amid growing worries that tomorrow's presidential election in Nigeria, one of the biggest sources of U.S. oil imports, may result in possible shipment disruptions. As the day's best performing sector, its biggest boost came from a 3.0% surge in Exxon Mobil (XOM 79.76 +2.30), which reports earnings next week. Schlumberger (SLB 75.03 +0.71) posting a 63% jump in Q1 profits provided some sense that sector estimates are too low. Evidently, surging oil prices didn't completely upset consumers.  The Consumer Discretionary sector also provided some notable upside leadership. Auto Parts & Equipment (+5.6%) was the day's best performing S&P industry group as shareholders applauded a 38% jump in Q2 net profits on record sales from Johnson Controls (JCI 102.25 +4.65). Specialty Consulting Services (+3.2%) ranked second among the more than 130 S&P industry groups to post gains. H&R Block (HRB 22.56 +0.73), a suggested holding in our Active Portfolio, reached an agreement to sell its OptionOne subprime mortgage businesss.Further proof that first quarter profit growth won't be as dismal as so many on Wall Street initially feared was also witnessed in Technology, a sector pegged to be a significant contributor to earnings growth this year. Last night, Google (GOOG 482.91 +11.26) beat analysts' estimates for the 10th time in 11 tries since going public with a 69% surge in Q1 profits.  Its blowout quarter helped to restore some confidence among tech investors. Above average volume, due in part to options expiration, and the market closing near session highs, set a good tone entering the weekend. Given the slightly negative market breadth over the last three sessions, a decidedly bullish sentiment today was also encouraging. Advancers outpaced decliners on the NYSE by a 3-to-1 margin while those on the Nasdaq held a 2-to-1 edge. BTK +1.1% DJ30 12961.98 DJTA +0.8% DJUA +1.0% DOT +0.6% NASDAQ 2526.39 NQ100 +0.7% R2K +1.2% SOX +0.2% SP400 +1.0% SP500 1484.35 XOI +1.5% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 944/2076/2.17 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 729/2517/1.82 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
 March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington — First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. “I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,” said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. “The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,” Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. “Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.” Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent — the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. “The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,” BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. “People are being very cautious,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. “The housing crunch is now hurting.” At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers — Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. — reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. “This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,” Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks…..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.  Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,” U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production Flaw  WASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed’s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.  Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I’ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis …..riiiiight….. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don’t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it’s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $63; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again’ as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush’s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the “better than expectations” game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what’s up is down and what’s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they’ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin’ to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don’t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch  12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

              July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct  4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans’ spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn’t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren’t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There’s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O’Hara, “I’ll worry about that tomorrow” attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don’t share their bosses’ zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can’t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59½ years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I’ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125–149 Analysts’ Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(4-19-07) What a joke the lunatic frauds on wall street are by rallying on b**l s**t alone (including fake economic reports-they lie about everything), and, ie.,  ignoring reality regarding,  erosion in consumer sentiment and one-year inflation expectations at the highest level in 8 months, rising food and energy costs, Systemic Recession The US is sliding into a long-term economic downturn, ChinaMerica America owned the 20th century, but it won't own the 21st, Dollar Down, Gold to Soar ...Real Estate Fiz...Recession 2007 ...Catch 22 – Lower interest rates in u.s. would decimate already worthless dollar REALITY COURTESY OF http://www.trendsresearch.com, negative inflation/economic data and continue their backward looking frenzied rally mode despite higher oil prices, unexpected jump in jobless claims, mortgage defaults highest in 37 years, retailers warning that April same-store sales will be weak, and the largest rise in import prices, Citigroup to cut 17000 jobs and earnings down 11% but stock rallies, national mortgage delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 2.87% in Q1, sentiment down, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the current rate of inflation remains too high, and on previous stellar employment report from government ...riiiiight!..., (what about the real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by acturial/accounting), as previously u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!..., despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A info, both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street’s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week’s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it’s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who’ve been printing worthless dollars like they’re going out of style because they are (so much so that they’ve stopped reporting M3), remove words ‘additional firming’ is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don’t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,  previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds continues,  blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it’s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering ‘bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally’ (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)’ fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 5, S&P down 2, and NASDAQ down 5, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody’s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What’s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds.  Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.).  BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don’t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month’s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you’re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low.  Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford’s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone.  Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they’ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.  Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious ‘Santa Claus rally’.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!  Total  bulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they’re booking sales to ‘straw men/companies’.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up  (OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOW  In other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.  MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in the  fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) …..riiiiight!….. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO’s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90’s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.  Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good …..riiiiight…..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they’re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn’t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected…..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming….. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News….. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight …..despite printing worthless dollars like they’re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can’t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn’t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Nacchio Convicted of 19 of 42 Charges
AP - Joe Nacchio, a former AT&T executive tapped to transform Qwest Communications into a major telecommunications competitor, was convicted Thursday of 19 of 42 insider trading charges after one-time top executives described his relentless drive to meet revenue projections without revealing financial risks.

Google 1Q Profit Rises 69 Percent AP
Stocks Flat on Economic, Earnings News
AP
Merrill Lynch 1Q Profit Jumps 31 Percent
AP
China Economy Surges 11 Percent
AP

  With conviction on the part of buyers lagging all day and the Dow closing in record territory a day earlier, it wasn't surprising to see the blue-chip index take a bit of a breather Thursday. Be that as it may, the blue-chip index still eked out enough of a gain to extend its winning streak to six and close at another new all-time high. The major averages finished mixed for a third straight session as the tech-heavy Nasdaq languished again as investors remained cautious ahead of more key earnings reports.It is worth noting, though, that things could have been a lot worse, given the decidedly bearish tone coming into today's trading. Before the bell, the market had all of the makings for round two, albeit a much less dramatic sequel, of the Shanghai sell-off that triggered widespread panic on February 27. Higher than expected GDP and CPI reports from China initially renewed concerns about the Chinese government stepping up its efforts to curb speculative buying interest with a possible rate hike.The news roiled overseas markets as Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 1.7%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index plunged 2.3% and the once unknown Shanghai stock exchange tumbled 4.5%. Fortunately for the bulls, fears of a possible unwinding in the yen carry trade and resurgence in risk aversion, similar to that exhibited throughout the month of March in the aftermath of the Asian contagion, continued to subside as the day wore on. The European bourses as well as the major U.S. averages posted only fractional declines.From a leadership standpoint, six of 10 sectors posted losses. Energy (-1.0%) paced the way lower as a 2.1% drop in oil prices diminished the desire to own the likes of explorers and refiners. Crude for May delivery, which expires tomorrow, closed near $61.80/bbl following reports that Enbridge resumed shipments through a previously shutdown pipeline from Canada, last year's biggest source of U.S. crude-oil imports.Evidently lower oil prices did little to excite consumers as the Discretionary turned in the day's second worst performance. Everything from retailers to autos to cable companies were weak, but hotels were the sector's biggest disappointment after Marriott International (MAR 48.12 -3.75) issued disappointing RevPAR guidance.With Google's (GOOG 471.27 -4.74) earnings out after the close, and rival Yahoo! (YHOO 27.50 -0.80) shocking Wall Street yesterday with its disappointing Q1 report, Technology was in focus again Thursday. Yahoo! tacked a nearly 3% decline onto yesterday's 11% drubbing while eBay (EBAY 33.16 -1.29) also weighed heavily on the Internet Services group. A suggested holding in the Briefing.com Active Portfolio, eBay posted a 52% rise in Q1 profits and raised its full-year earnings and revenue forecasts; but with expectations running high ahead of its report last night, investors were tempted to lock in some of its 15% year-to-date advance. One bright spot for tech was Intel (INTC 21.81 +0.46), another suggested holding which surged 2.2% after being upgraded. Intel was an integral reason the Dow hit a new record again and why the tech sector's decline was minimal.On the positive side of things, Health Care was the day's standout, with the bulk of sector support coming from Biotech (+3.4%), today's best performing S&P industry group. Amgen (AMGN 62.32 +2.31) staged a relief rally following upbeat results from a study regarding its blockbuster Aranesp drug while investors also applauded an upbeat Q1 report from Gilead Sciences (GILD 81.67 +3.24). BTK +0.7% DJ30 +4.79 DJTA +0.7% DJUA -0.4% DOT -0.6% NASDAQ -5.15 R2K -0.8% SOX +0.5% SP400 -0.4% SP500 -1.77 XOI -0.8% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1988/1023/2.04 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2122/1117/1.48 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
 March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington — First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. “I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,” said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. “The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,” Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. “Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.” Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent — the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. “The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,” BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. “People are being very cautious,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. “The housing crunch is now hurting.” At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers — Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. — reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. “This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,” Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks…..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.  Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,” U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production Flaw  WASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed’s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.  Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I’ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis …..riiiiight….. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don’t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it’s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended qui3e badly; oil prices now above $61; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again’ as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush’s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the “better than expectations” game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what’s up is down and what’s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they’ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin’ to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don’t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch  12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

              July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct  4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans’ spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn’t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren’t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There’s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O’Hara, “I’ll worry about that tomorrow” attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don’t share their bosses’ zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can’t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59½ years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I’ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125–149 Analysts’ Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(4-18-07) New Moon and what a joke the lunatic frauds on wall street are by rallying on b**l s**t alone, and, ie.,  ignoring reality regarding,  erosion in consumer sentiment and one-year inflation expectations at the highest level in 8 months, rising food and energy costs, Systemic Recession The US is sliding into a long-term economic downturn, ChinaMerica America owned the 20th century, but it won't own the 21st, Dollar Down, Gold to Soar ...Real Estate Fiz...Recession 2007 ...Catch 22 – Lower interest rates in u.s. would decimate already worthless dollar REALITY COURTESY OF http://www.trendsresearch.com, negative inflation/economic data and continue their backward looking frenzied rally mode despite higher oil prices, unexpected jump in jobless claims, mortgage defaults highest in 37 years, retailers warning that April same-store sales will be weak, and the largest rise in import prices, Citigroup to cut 17000 jobs and earnings down 11% but stock rallies, national mortgage delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 2.87% in Q1, sentiment down, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the current rate of inflation remains too high, and on previous stellar employment report from government ...riiiiight!..., (what about the real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by acturial/accounting), as previously u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!..., despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A info, both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street’s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week’s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it’s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who’ve been printing worthless dollars like they’re going out of style because they are (so much so that they’ve stopped reporting M3), remove words ‘additional firming’ is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don’t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,  previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds continues,  blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it’s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering ‘bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally’ (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)’ fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 30, S&P up 1, and NASDAQ down 6, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody’s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What’s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds.  Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.).  BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don’t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month’s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you’re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low.  Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford’s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone.  Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they’ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.  Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious ‘Santa Claus rally’.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!  Total  bulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they’re booking sales to ‘straw men/companies’.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up  (OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOW  In other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.  MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in the  fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) …..riiiiight!….. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO’s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90’s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.  Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good …..riiiiight…..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they’re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn’t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected…..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming….. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News….. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight …..despite printing worthless dollars like they’re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can’t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn’t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Dow Closes Above 12,800 for First Time
AP - The Dow Jones industrial average closed above 12,800 for the first time Wednesday, signaling Wall Street's recovery from its steep decline in February as investors rewarded companies with strong earnings.

Kraft's 1Q Profits Drop 30 Percent AP
Clear Channel Accepts Higher $19.35B Bid
AP
EBay Boosts 1Q Profit by 52 Percent
AP
Gap Clothes to Grace Cover of Vogue
AP

   The indices finished mixed for a second straight day and, in similar fashion to Tuesday's performance, the bulk of buying interest was dictated by gains in just a handful of blue chips. The Dow closed at an historic high, but all three major averages finished the day well off their best levels of the session. A day after a tame read on consumer inflation and solid earnings from two Dow components helped the index briefly eclipse its all-time closing high of 12,786.64, the absence of any potentially troubling economic data and two more of the Dow 30 announcing upbeat quarterly results, alongside some other upbeat blue-chip news, helped power the Dow to its best finish ever.As evidenced by the 1.0% rally in Financials, a nearly 4% surge in shares of Dow component JPMorgan Chase (JPM 52.07 +1.89) was the biggest story of the day. The financial services giant soared to a six-year high after handily beating analysts' expectations with record results, authorizing a $10 bln buyback, and raising its dividend for the first time in six years. Its report helped renew enthusiasm throughout the recently beaten-down and heavily-weighted Financials sector.The only other influential sector attracting buyers, and telling the rest of the story behind today's move into uncharted territory for the Dow, was Industrials. Boeing (BA 93.88 +3.43) surged almost 4% to an all-time high following reports it is the sole bidder for a $2.5 bln South Korean fighter contract. Fellow Dow component Caterpillar (CAT 69.48 +1.82) climbed almost 3% on the back of an analyst upgrade two days before it reports earnings. Boeing's gain alone accounted for almost the entire gain on the Dow.Technology was also in focus after Dow component Intel (INTC 21.37 +0.39) kicked things off last night with its Q1 report. Intel, a suggested holding in the Briefing.com Active Portfolio, posted an in-line report and revenues were a bit light; but management raising gross margin guidance for the full year helped restore investor confidence in its leadership position. Also helping Semiconductors turn in one of the day's best performances was Linear Technology (LLTC 36.05 +3.93), which soared 12% as shareholders applauded its $3 bln stock buyback program.However, given such high expectations being priced into Yahoo! (YHOO 28.31 -3.78) shares of late, first quarter results falling short of forecasts on both the top and bottom lines revived worries that estimates for the tech sector are still overly optimistic. IBM (IBM 94.82 -2.30) was another tech blemish after an in-line report.  Its CFO saying the U.S. market showed signs of weakness prompted multiple analyst downgrades. The 2.4% decline on the Dow's highest priced stock offset what was shaping up to be an even stronger record performance for the price-weighted index. DJ30 +30.80 NASDAQ -6.45 SP500 +1.02 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1797/1228/2.10 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1850/1414/1.58 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
 March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington — First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. “I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,” said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. “The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,” Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. “Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.” Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent — the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. “The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,” BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. “People are being very cautious,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. “The housing crunch is now hurting.” At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers — Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. — reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. “This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,” Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks…..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.  Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,” U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production Flaw  WASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed’s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.  Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I’ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis …..riiiiight….. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don’t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it’s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $63; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again’ as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush’s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the “better than expectations” game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what’s up is down and what’s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they’ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin’ to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don’t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch  12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

              July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct  4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans’ spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn’t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren’t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There’s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O’Hara, “I’ll worry about that tomorrow” attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don’t share their bosses’ zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can’t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59½ years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I’ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125–149 Analysts’ Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(4-17-07) New Moon and the lunatic frauds on wall street do what you expect lunatics to do, ie.,  ignore reality regarding,  erosion in consumer sentiment and one-year inflation expectations at the highest level in 8 months, rising food and energy costs, Systemic Recession The US is sliding into a long-term economic downturn, ChinaMerica America owned the 20th century, but it won't own the 21st, Dollar Down, Gold to Soar ...Real Estate Fiz...Recession 2007 ...Catch 22 – Lower interest rates in u.s. would decimate already worthless dollar REALITY COURTESY OF http://www.trendsresearch.com, negative inflation/economic data and continue their backward looking frenzied rally mode despite higher oil prices, unexpected jump in jobless claims, mortgage defaults highest in 37 years, retailers warning that April same-store sales will be weak, and the largest rise in import prices, Citigroup to cut 17000 jobs and earnings down 11% but stock rallies, national mortgage delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 2.87% in Q1, sentiment down, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the current rate of inflation remains too high, and on previous stellar employment report from government ...riiiiight!..., (what about the real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by acturial/accounting), as previously u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!..., despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A info, both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street’s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week’s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it’s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who’ve been printing worthless dollars like they’re going out of style because they are (so much so that they’ve stopped reporting M3), remove words ‘additional firming’ is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don’t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,  previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds continues,  blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it’s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering ‘bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally’ (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)’ fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 53, S&P up 3, and NASDAQ down 1, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody’s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What’s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds.  Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.).  BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don’t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month’s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you’re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low.  Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford’s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone.  Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they’ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.  Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious ‘Santa Claus rally’.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!  Total  bulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they’re booking sales to ‘straw men/companies’.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up  (OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOW  In other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.  MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in the  fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) …..riiiiight!….. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO’s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90’s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.  Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good …..riiiiight…..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they’re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn’t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected…..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming….. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News….. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight …..despite printing worthless dollars like they’re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can’t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn’t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Yahoo Disappointing 1Q Drags Down Stock
AP - Investors were falling in love with Yahoo Inc. again until the Internet icon's disheartening first-quarter results ruined the mood.

Intel 1Q Profit Surges 19 Percent AP
Late Filers Swamp TurboTax E-File System
AP
IBM Meets 1Q Earnings Forecast
AP
Seagate's 3rd-Quarter Profit Decline
AP

   The major averages closed in split fashion Tuesday as investors weighed another round of upbeat earnings reports and tame inflation data against the temptation to lock in some of the market's recent gains. As a reminder, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq have climbed roughly 3.6% on average during the month of April amid heightened expectations Wall Street analysts may have revised their earnings estimates too low.Meanwhile, with policy makers recently emphasizing their inflation concerns, and the monthly CPI report's ability to influence monetary decision making, early indications were signaling a lower start for stocks. The market's sizable gains a day earlier and the Dow less than 60 points away from its all-time closing high also contributed to the lack of buying interest at the onset of trading.Core consumer prices rising a lower than expected 0.1%, though, helped to ease renewed fears about pricing pressures and provided a floor of buying support. In the end, however, the soft number, coupled with rising energy costs that left total CPI with its biggest increase (+0.6%) since last April, did not exactly signal that inflation is back under control. The recent uptrend in energy prices threatens to raise overall inflation pressures and keep the core trends above Fed targets.Further proof of stabilization in housing, following unexpected 0.8% increases in monthly starts and permits, was also encouraging; but the data merely prompted bargain-hunting interest in Homebuilding (+2.8%), this year's worst performing S&P industry group (-17.9%).The bigger story Tuesday was earnings. Coca-Cola (KO 51.62 +1.35) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 64.60 +1.58), which topped Wall Street expectations, were the biggest reasons behind the Dow briefly eclipsing its all-time closing high of 12,786.64 (Feb.20). While both blue chips acted as notable sources of support for their respective Consumer Staples and Health Care sectors, the defensive nature of both stocks suggested there was less conviction in today's follow-through buying efforts. Coca-Cola and J&J accounted for nearly half of the Dow's 52-point advance.Technology was also in focus as investors placed their bets on solid earnings reports from tech bellwethers like IBM (IBM 97.16 +0.98) and Intel (INTC 20.97 +0.28). Average gains of more than 1.0% from each Dow component, which were scheduled to report after the bell, accounted for another 10 Dow points. DJ30 +52.58 NASDAQ -1.38 SP500 +3.01 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1751/1278/1.92 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1685/1589/1.47 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
 March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington — First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. “I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,” said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. “The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,” Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. “Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.” Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent — the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. “The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,” BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. “People are being very cautious,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. “The housing crunch is now hurting.” At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers — Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. — reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. “This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,” Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks…..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.  Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,” U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production Flaw  WASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed’s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.  Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I’ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis …..riiiiight….. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don’t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it’s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $63; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again’ as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush’s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the “better than expectations” game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what’s up is down and what’s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they’ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin’ to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don’t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch  12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

              July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct  4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans’ spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn’t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren’t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There’s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O’Hara, “I’ll worry about that tomorrow” attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don’t share their bosses’ zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can’t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59½ years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I’ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125–149 Analysts’ Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(4-16-07) The lunatic frauds on wall street prove they are a joke,  ignore reality regarding, erosion in consumer sentiment and one-year inflation expectations at the highest level in 8 months, rising food and energy costs, Systemic Recession The US is sliding into a long-term economic downturn, ChinaMerica America owned the 20th century, but it won't own the 21st, Dollar Down, Gold to Soar ...Real Estate Fiz...Recession 2007 ...Catch 22 – Lower interest rates in u.s. would decimate already worthless dollar REALITY COURTESY OF http://www.trendsresearch.com, negative inflation/economic data and continue their backward looking frenzied rally mode despite higher oil prices, unexpected jump in jobless claims, mortgage defaults highest in 37 years, retailers warning that April same-store sales will be weak, and the largest rise in import prices, Citigroup to cut 17000 jobs and earnings down 11% but stock rallies, national mortgage delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 2.87% in Q1, sentiment down, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the current rate of inflation remains too high, and on previous stellar employment report from government ...riiiiight!..., (what about the real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by acturial/accounting), as previously u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!..., despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A info, both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street’s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week’s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it’s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who’ve been printing worthless dollars like they’re going out of style because they are (so much so that they’ve stopped reporting M3), remove words ‘additional firming’ is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don’t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,  previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds continues,  blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it’s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering ‘bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally’ (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)’ fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 108.33, S&P up 15.62, and NASDAQ up 26.39, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody’s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What’s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds.  Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.).