9-28-11 POSTS


 

 

 

 

D.C. area unemployment up in August During the 12-month period ending in August, the region dropped 2,600 jobs in its most reliable sector. (Washington Post) [ Well that got ‘no-recession-helicopter ben b.s. bernanke’s ‘ attention. Much like ‘Punxsutawney Phil ‘ of ground hog day, he’s finally seen his shadow! Cast a giant shadow sweet ben shalom bernanke! {  Hallmark unveils unemployment greeting cards(WP) See … defacto bankrupt american ingenuity … that ‘opportunity in every calamity’ thing / that ‘glass is half full’ (though empty) … riiiiight! } The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed!  Train Reading: The Stock Market Is (Criminally) Insane The Wall Street Journal  ,  This is still an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits because there’s much worse to come!  [  Bernanke calls unemployment a ‘national crisis’   28 Sep 2011 Fed chief Ben Bernanke said Wednesday that the nation’s weak labor market was “a national crisis” - Duh! No-recession-wall-street-lovin’-helicopter ben’s … done it again! … brilliant description of unfortunately what already is thanks in large part to his wall (fraud) street largess / welfare in the form of QE’s, etc. , Unthinkable Poised to Happen on Wall Street. See Disturbing Charts. (Moneynews) http://w3.newsmax.com/a/aftershockb/video.cfm?PROMO_CODE=CD97-1     ,  Prepare for Lehman Brothers Part 2   ,  Arguments for Being in the Crash Camp   Conor Sen Sep 28, 2011  ,  Now's Not the Time to Take on Equity Market Exposure at Minyanville Erik Swarts Sep 28, 2011 ,  [video]Buying on Rumor - Prepare For The Selling On NewsTheStreet.com TV ,  End of Quarter Price Mark-Ups; Dave’s Daily   http://www.thestreet.com/story/11260606/1/end-of-quarter-price-mark-ups-daves-daily.html  Dave Fry  9-27-11 ‘All you need do is view the last week of June 2011, the previous quarter end, and you'll note a similar quarter end jam-job…’  , Roubini: U.S. in Throes of Economic Contraction Sep 27th, 2011 News (Bloomberg) , SHILLER: House Prices Probably Won’t Hit Bottom For Years Sep 27th, 2011  News (BusinessInsider) , Split opens over Greek bail-out terms Sep 27th, 2011 15:37  News (Financial Times) ,   The familiar fraud/pattern of end-of-month/quarter window dressing b***s*** story of ‘hopes’ (ie., americanized funny-money fraud in the eurozone, etc.) from the frauds on wall street …  Dave’s Daily:’.. The HAL 9000s have been doing business as HFTs (High Frequency Traders) launching many buy or sell programs using complex algorithms which can drive prices on indexes higher or lower in dramatic fashion. One of their great acts is called "quote stuffing". It's another illegal activity which the SEC hasn't quite figured out. It's as futile for them as the illegal fee-driven recent end-of-quarter price jam-job..’   , despite the reality of bad news , New home sales hit 6-month low, prices drop , Euro zone damps talk of rapid debt crisis steps , On the Lookout for a Red October Minyanville ‘ … Aside from history, if we take a look at the global environment, there are a handful of things suggesting that we will experience a turbulent October…’  ,    Suckers’ rally into the close to suck suckers in and keep suckers sucked in based on lingering hopes for unaffordably damaging funny money / QE ultimately taxpayer funded / borne bailout / welfare for these fraudulent ‘titans of capitalism’ on wall street, viz., nothing whatsoever ( watch for their fraudulent / illegal end of month/quarter window dressing - Play It Again Sam: Dave's Daily ‘ ... The HAL 9000s have been doing business as HFTs (High Frequency Traders) launching many buy or sell programs using complex algorithms which can drive prices on indexes higher or lower in dramatic fashion. One of their great acts is called "quote stuffing". It's another illegal activity which the SEC hasn't quite figured out. It's as futile for them as the illegal fee-driven recent end-of-quarter price jam-job. One of these actions was featured courtesy of our friends at Zero Hedge and depicted below as it occurred Thursday afternoon. The first chart features the quotes per second (NOTE: one instance exceeding 800 quotes per second). The next chart shows the market's simultaneous reaction.  http://www.thestreet.com/tsc/daves/082511/image002.jpg  )  , and bad news (  Soros: US Is Already in Double-Dip Recession CNBC.com  ,   Stocks: Don't Get All Comfortable Just Yet WS /Conway ,  Stocks Endure Worst Five-Day Slamming Since '08, Still On Edge About Greece Forbes , More Pain Is Coming To Equities  http://regator.com/p/253227580/more_pain_is_coming_to_equities  Penguin Capital Markets , David Cameron: world on brink of new economic crisis London Telegraph , Every Age Group Is Getting Poorer In America, Except For One Advisor Perspectives , Global economy pushed to the brink Sep 23rd, 2011 News Financial Times , European and US Economies Teetering on Weak Policy, Leadership Minyanville Kerr , Moody's downgrades 8 Greek banks (AP)  ,   Signs The Perfect Economic Storm Is Coming  http://www.bullfax.com/?q=node-signs-perfect-economic-storm-coming  ,   America’s debt woe is worse than Greece’s Sep 21st, 2011 News (CNN) — ‘Our government is utterly broke. There are signs everywhere one looks. Social Security can no longer afford to send us our annual benefit statements. The House can no longer afford its congressional pages. The Pentagon can no longer afford the pension and health care benefits of retired service members. NASA is no longer planning a manned mission to Mars. We’re broke for a reason. We’ve spent six decades accumulating a huge official debt (U.S. Treasury bills and bonds) and vastly larger unofficial debts to pay for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid benefits to today’s and tomorrow’s 100 million-plus retirees. The government’s total indebtedness — its fiscal gap — now stands at $211 trillion, by my arithmetic. [source]’  ,  $16 muffins, $8 coffee served in Justice audit , Market Recap: FOMC Announces Operation Twist, Banks Tumble, Investors Flee Sovereign Debt Wall St. Cheat Sheet September 21, 2011, Wall Street sinks 3 percent after Fed cites economic "risks"  NEW YORK (Reuters)  ,   Moody's downgrades big banks on changed policy  ,  Italy downgraded, IMF says Europe behind the curve  Reuters  ,  IMF downgrades outlook for US and Europe economies [Sep 20, 2011] ... Fund has sharply downgraded its outlook for the U.S. economy through 2012 ...  http://finance.yahoo.com/news/IMF-downgrades-outlook-for-US-apf-1240337037.html?x=0 much worse than expected:  Market Recap: S&P Downgrades Italy, Housing Starts Tumble, Markets Wait on funny-money no-recession ben bernanke   Wall St Cheat Sheet ,   IMF Downgrades Global Economic Outlook  ,  Drudgereport: IMF WARNS: INTO THE DANGER ZONE... ...warns of USA 'lost decade'  ,  New High: 37% Say Their Home Is Worth Less Than Remaining Mortgage Payments Rasmussen  ,  30 Signs That The U.S. Economy Is About To Go Into The Toilet The Economic Collapse  ,  A Fed IOER Cut Could Backfire on Banks, Warns Pimco  ,   3 Reasons Markets Were Up As Central Banks Stepped in to Boost Dollar Liquidity in European Banks Wall St. Cheat Sheet Today the Department of Labor announced that consumer prices had climbed twice what economists had predicted in August, while initial jobless claims jumped last week to their highest level since June. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s report on manufacturing in the region contracted more than expected in September, while its general economic index dropped to its weakest reading since November 2010, indicating that companies in the region covered by the New York Fed’s manufacturing index are cutting back. The consumer-price report also showed that hourly earnings fell in August in their biggest one-month decline since July 2008, while the cost of energy, food, healthcare, and shelter all rose.‘ ,   David Rosenberg: “It’s Time To Start Calling This For What It Is: A Modern Day Depression” Zero Hedge ,  Geithner: Economy In “An Early Stage” Of Crisis  ,  Flat retail sales keeps U.S. on recession watch ) fraud  ( ETFs have potential to become the next toxic scandal Sep 19th, 2011 News (The Telegraph) Financial Stability Board (FSB), an international super-regulator, wrote a prescient if less than catchily-titled paper “Potential financial stability issues arising from recent trends in Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)”..warning – ETFs are not the cheap and transparent vehicles the marketers would have us believe ..no one who read the FSB report was surprised to see the words ETF and rogue trader in the same sentence… half of the ETFs in Europe today do not match the index they are designed to track by holding all of its constituent shares.. Derivative trades add a second layer of uncertainty .. the counterparty risk that the organisation on the other side of the contract might go bust. Even worse, the provider of the ETF might sometimes be a part of the same organisation as the derivatives desk carrying out the swap…For reasons which I’m not sure I could explain even if I had the space, it is possible for the number of shares sold short in an ETF to massively exceed the actual number of shares available.’) / manipulated programmed hft (high frequency trades – see, ie.,  What to Expect Next From the Markets , Dave’s Daily, infra ) and b***s*** alone! [ Stock Market Secret Word of the Day Is 'Delusion' WSJ  ,  watch for fake data / reports out of their sheer desperation  ,  ‘american technology is horrendous and vastly overrated!’ I really mean it; and that’s reality, which speaks volumes about the pathetic state of the world , Minyanville's T3 Daily Recap: Market Squeeze Continues, But Was it a Trap?  By T3Live.com ‘Today's action … another clever ploy to suck in longs while relieving some of the oversold condition of the market’  ,  Don't Trust Wall Street and this Market  ETFguide ,  Congress budget agency warns panel of economic ills  ,  Nearly 1 in 6 Americans in poverty, Census says  ,  Cisco cuts long-term sales growth forecast  ,  International alarm over euro zone crisis grows  ,  Why Can't Wall Street Be Honest With The Public? Forbes  ,  Venture capital veteran Perkins sees danger ahead  , These Wall Street Firms are About to Start Firing People Like Crazy  ,   Same Alan Greenspan Who Warned Against Budget Surplus Now Warns About Deficit  ,  ETF Redemptions Highest Since 2008: Report ETF Trends , 20 Signs Of Imminent Financial Collapse In Europe The Economic Collapse ,  The 2nd Edge Of Modern Financial Repression: Manipulating Inflation Indexes To Steal From Retirees & Public Workers Gold Seek  Lawless America: 20 Examples Of Desperate People Doing Desperate Things The American Dream  ,  Poverty In America: A Special Report The Economic Collapse | America is getting poorer.  How Greece Is Mocking the Rest of the World  [ Well, let’s get real here! There’s plenty to mock in this world, and Greece is hardly the nation to be doing the mocking. I think it’s the markets that are mocking the rest of the world’s stupidity for buying into this false reality / obfuscation / fraud, particularly by way of the now pervasive worldwide acceptance of the american strategy of currency debasement which really is a fraud facilitator because it masks to all but the intelligent few the underlying economic weakness and decline. A simplistic example, though not perfect, is apropos here: a company sells a product for 1 dollar which costs 1 dollar to make (assuming arguendo to cover fixed expenses - no profit). The fed over-printing / creating dollars like mad to the point where it now takes 2 dollars to render the same purchasing power of  1 dollar when the goods were produced. The company sells the products for 2 dollars (the previous equivalent of 1 dollar before debasement). The company is now showing earnings 1 dollar per unit sold, yet in real terms, they’ve gotten no more than the equivalent of that 1 dollar per unit. (If you’ve been to the grocery store lately, particularly the last 1-2 months, I’ve found meats, etc., to be up 50-100%, etc.). The same obfuscating manipulations are applicable to assets generally, and to those pieces of paper called stocks which are even ‘worse for the wear’ since churn-and-earn commissions at lightning computerized speed are being subtracted from this illusory ‘enhanced value’ which in reality doesn’t exist at all. ( Such manipulations from currency translation also provide ‘arbitrage opportunities’ though similarly largely ultimately subtracted from no real value being created. ) This is why fraudulent wall street loves the fed’s QE’s and dollar debasement / over-printing / creating and also why it’s been a dismal failure and a net negative in real economic terms as seen on main street and in the decimation of the middle class and growing ranks of the poor. In the analysis of securities, this would be considered ‘the quality of earnings factor’ that goes into the assignment of a p/e multiple to the projected earnings. Sufficeth to say, this is no longer done on wall street in any real or legitimate fashion, if at all. Indeed, it’s a fair statement to say that security analysis is no longer a ‘practice’ as same was considered, once upon a time, by value investors / analysts. As set forth by Dave and Cooper, infra, computerized programmed manipulation at lightning speed has been expedient in the short run for the wall street frauds but ultimately leads to the inevitable crash since as I often reiterate: Remember, there is no modern day alchemy that spins worthless paper into gold except fraudulently for the frauds on wall street who’ve literally oftimes done exactly that; ‘cashing out’ for hard currency and gold, precious metals, at everyone else’s expense including main street. They’re just not that important and represent, like termites eating away at the nation’s foundation, a drag on the economy, the nation as one would expect from parasites such as they are’. What to Expect Next From the Markets Minyanville  Jeffrey Cooper ‘Conclusion: It looks like a program was run using the least amount of dollars to goose the indices by focusing on some big cap names like Apple, Amazon, Baidu, IBM, and Caterpillar { Apple Hits New High (Update1) [ 9-19-11 This manipulated programmed trade to froth markets is a crash in the making – sell at these ridiculous levels / take profits! },  Dave’s Daily:’.. The HAL 9000s have been doing business as HFTs (High Frequency Traders) launching many buy or sell programs using complex algorithms which can drive prices on indexes higher or lower in dramatic fashion. One of their great acts is called "quote stuffing". It's another illegal activity which the SEC hasn't quite figured out. It's as futile for them as the illegal fee-driven recent end-of-quarter price jam-job..’] Simon Maierhofer,September 16, 2011, ‘Webster's dictionary defines gullible as naive and easily duped or cheated'…’     



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Will: Barney Frank tampers with the Fed (Washington Post) [ Not that tampering could make them any worse for the wear … dodd-frank (the soft-touch)… riiiiight! dodd / lieberman, much like feinstein /  boxer (let’s not forget pelousi) have been total failures for their respective states, and certainly collectively for the nation. frank? What’s he to do with his misspent time now that congressional pages have been eliminated owing to budgetary shortfalls … sure, tamper with the fed, what else is there to do … his results have paralleled the nation’s decline; yet, in fairness, he’s not alone in sharing the blame as reflected in the poll numbers, collectively and individually (and I would add all three branches of pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america’s failed government to this dynamic).  8 More Reasons Why You Should Be Deeply Concerned That The U.S. Government Has Lost Its AAA Credit Rating The Economic Collapse ‘…  #8 The U.S. national debt continues to get worse by the day.  Just check out what economics professor Laurence J. Kotlikoff recently told NPR….“If you add up all the promises that have been made for spending obligations, including defense expenditures, and you subtract all the taxes that we expect to collect, the difference is $211 trillion. That’s the fiscal gap” ..’   Why You Shouldn't Buy Into This Plunge Forbes/O'Neil‘The market is building momentum to the downside’). !  Italy unveils plan to calm fears of escalating crisis  (WP) [ Yeah, dem piigs were back in the news. Dem PIIGS still got problems.  Europe’s debt crisis threatens Italy (WP) [ Yeah, dem’ darn PIIGS.  Reminds me of that joke (I won’t repeat it here except the punch line): ‘That’s black bart’s girl’.  Pelosi: ‘We are not Greece’  ( but greecy Italy Italians voice concern over Italian debt crisis scenario [ Whew! Close call! There you go. Nothing to worry about now that wobama’s got a boehner … so not to be so hard on them; if pelosi says it, it must be true … Not! …Pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america, they, she look pretty greecey to me. After all, if the same’s wobama’s ‘far-reaching plan on debt’, we all know ‘wobama the b’ (for b***s***) is total b***s*** which means like Greecey PIIGS they’ll be back to the trough for more … slop … py.  Deficits And Stimulus Only Delay The Inevitable Collapse Bob Chapman | America is insolvent and has been so for a long time. US Is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece: Gross When adding in all of the money owed to cover future liabilities in entitlement programs the US is actually in worse financial shape than Greece and other debt-laden European countries, Pimco’s Bill Gross told CNBC Monday.  Maierhofer: ‘USA INCOME STATEMENT:Total federal spending in 2010 amounted to $3.456 trillion. Total receipts added up to $2.162 trillion. USA Inc.'s 2010 deficit was $1.294 trillion.The 2011 federal budget is $3.7 trillion with a projected deficit of$1.6 trillion. …USA BALANCE SHEET: Consensus estimates for unfunded obligations vary. Mary Meeker pegs the shortfall at $31 trillion, PIMCO's Bill Gross estimates the unreported debt to be $75 trillion, while other estimates exceed $100 trillion (these amounts are insurmountable) …’ ]   ]

 

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Taliban stalks outskirts of one of Afghanistan’s safest cities In Afghanistan’s north, insurgents are tightening their grip in farmlands and villages near Mazar-e-Sharif. (Washington Post) [ Insurgents? Or, freedom fighters … I think reality’d say the latter … After all, unless you’re blindedly pro-opium-heroin trade, resurgent since the brutal american occupation along with death and destruction concomitant therewith, you’d have take truth for what it is! U.S officials say Mullen overstated Pakistan’s ties to insurgents Adm. Mike Mullen’s assertion that an insurgent group in Afghanistan is a “veritable arm” of Pakistan’s spy service went too far, some U.S. officials say. (Washington Post) [ What does it matter what war-mongering, pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america says at this point, certainly in this region, where misguided u.s. actions have spoken volumes, and louder at that. It’s amazing to see what ‘fubar’ americans can even do to ‘wet dreams’. Will: The Pentagon’s greatest fear (Washington Post) [ Geeh! Upon reading this headline I expected some ‘rah, rah stay the course’ invective like, ie., ‘fear itself’; or, alternatively, a response more consonant with reality, as, ie., ‘reality’, which given america’s defacto bankruptcy and anti-american sentiment engendered by their ‘budget-necessity’ misadventures so antithetical to this nation’s and the world’s prospects in futuro. But alas, ‘exploitive cyber probes’ does not immediately come to mind. Moreover, having been ‘targeted / victimized’ by what I only can reasonably infer to be ‘government operatives / surrogates’, I find it difficult to shed a tear for a huge bureaucracy (part of that deleterious military industrial complex warned against by the great President General Eisenhower) that is literally in large part america’s and the world’s problem(s)(perma wars etc.).  Sept. 11’s unhealed wounds Commemoration can’t mend what is self-inflicted. (Washington Post) [ This article seems somewhat out-of-character for Mr. Will who seemed back when to be somewhat of an administration apologist, ‘war(ts) and all’. Yet, this piece is so well done ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/sept-11s-self-inflicted-wounds/2011/09/08/gIQAfjm5FK_story.html ) that I was sorely tempted to archive same on my own site. What he says, needed sayin’.  These perma wars that real Generals as the great but under-rated President General Eisenhower would have seen right through and opposed as misguided ‘military industrial complex welfare programs’ were never a good idea. Yet, they’ve given the corrupt incompetents in Washington ‘something to do’ while diverting attention from huge frauds and failures. Pentagon bans media coverage of ceremony to return remains of soldiers killed in helo crash (Washington Post) [Sources: Seal Team 6 Was Murdered TheAlexJonesChannel | The SEALs team has reportedly been extremely angry about the fabricated OBL raid and ready to talk. Pakistan TV Report Contradicts US Claim of Bin Laden’s Death Paul Craig Roberts | OBL’s death will remain one of those many “truths” that rest on nothing but the government’s word. Sources: Seal Team 6 Was Murdered The Alex Jones Channel | The SEALs team has reportedly been extremely angry about the fabricated OBL raid and ready to talk.  Pakistan TV Report Contradicts US Claim of Bin Laden’s Death Paul Craig Roberts | OBL’s death will remain one of those many “truths” that rest on nothing but the government’s word. Seal Team 6 Crash Was An Inside Job Alex Jones | Were Obama and the globalists tying up loose ends? Old Tattered Republic: Why Do Some Believe Known Liars? TheAlexJonesChannel | Why do we buy ANY of the lies? Infowars Ireland Predicted SEAL Team 6 Demise Tony Cartalucci | Strange Coincidence Surrounding a Known Conspiracy. FLASHBACK: Eyewitness to OBL Raid Saw Helicopter Explode (TRANSCRIPT) [ As indicated on this albertpeia.com website, I didn’t buy the administration’s desperate and politically opportunist Osama event and still don’t buy it; and further, I believe this! ]Veterans Today | TRANSCRIPT of critical interview with Pakistani eyewitness to Bin Laden raid. Is this the key to SEAL Team 6s demise? “Bin Laden” Heroes Probably Murderered to Keep Them Quiet  Gordon Duff  Veterans Today August 7, 2011 | Some Possibly Killed in Abbottabad Helicopter Crash Months Before. [ As indicated on this albertpeia.com website, I didn’t buy the administration’s desperate and politically opportunist Osama event and still don’t buy it; and further, I believe this! ] Today 31 NATO troops, 20 of them Navy Seals from the Osama bin Laden operation died in what is reported as a helicopter crash in Afghanistan.

‘The chance of this story being true is almost nil. The chances of this being a staged coverup is over 80%. We believe these people were murdered to silence them. This is why.

We have solid information on two areas:

1. Osama bin Laden died in 2001 as an active CIA employee and his body was recovered in Afghanistan and taken to “the sand box.” We were told it was frozen. We have so much verification from this, CIA, ISI, US military and top officials. I have a direct confirmation from Bin Laden’s CIA handler who I grilled mercilessly on this.

2. The Abbottabad operation involved numerous American deaths, witnessed, bodies all over, a helicopter crash. (suppressed translated TV interview below) These bodies were recovered by land vehicle from Islamabad and there was NO “successful” bin Laden operation of any kind. There was and has been a CIA safe house in Abbotabad where terror suspects were stored for years.

This gave the US several areas of severe vulnerability. Generally, Navy Seals are the best people in the world at keeping their mouths shut, these are real team players, as the term “Seal Team” belies.

We at VT were informed that the bin Laden operation was staged at this time, a theatrical farce, to cover the exit of Secretary Gates, the move by former CIA Director Leon Panetta into the DOD as Secretary of Defense and to stem any heroic claims by new CIA Director Petraeus of killing the long dead Osama bin Laden, the long frozen CIA operative.

Petraeus is a possible presidential contender and had to be denied this “gift from heaven,” a fast track to the oval office for sure.

Again, I remind you, I went over specific meetings on bin Laden with his handlers, getting every last detail. I have watched what has gone on, the continuing need to vilify a long dead top CIA operative to provide residual cover for the Bush administration….

The reason? Bush and his cronies are all facing charges of war crimes, not just in minor jurisdictions but heading for the ICC, putting them on the dock with Gaddafi ( a far less harmful character).

As for the timing of this incident? This we will work on. What we can easily surmise is that some of the dead have been dead since their bodies were taken away from the helicopter crash site in Abbotabad.

Who would order such a thing? We are going to have to wait but we are going to find out. However, we expected this, the timing is exactly as predicted. Read full article

Deaths of SEAL Team 6 Exposed Aaron Dykes & Alex Jones | We predicted shortly after the raid on bin Laden’s compound that SEALs would soon be reported dead in a helicopter crash or staged incident following multiple reports from military sources.

SEAL Unit Supposedly Responsible for Osama Hit Killed in Copter Crash Kurt Nimmo | Is it possible the Pentagon took out the helicopter to send a message to the SEALs, just in case some of them decide (like Pat Tillman did) to tell the truth?

Questions raised by the SEAL Team 6 deaths in Afghanistan Madison Ruppert | It took minutes before the Internet was ablaze with chatter about the deaths of these American commandos.

SHARE YOUR OPINION ON THE DEBT LIMIT
Dear Congresswoman Roybal-Allard:

The following is my comment to an LA Times article regarding a Justice Department cover-up! As for your inquiry, all I think about day and night is a long overdue resolution to the RICO litigation as set forth therein:

ATF Chief Melson:Justice Department trying to shield officials (LATimes) Serrano

 

I believe him!

 I truly empathize with the ATF in terms of government cover-ups, notably by even the DOJ. Youll recognize some familiar names (ie., Alito, Trump, Freeh (Louis Freeh now has dual citizenship with Italy), and some familiar crimes (ie., drug money laundering, etc. real cash cow for govt ops, bribes, etc.). [Did you know this about the following ATF Agents who were probably viewed as loose ends: Steve Willis, Robert Williams, Todd McKeahan & Conway LeBleu:   Died February 28, 1993 by gunfire at Waco. All four were examined by a pathologist and died from identical wounds to the left temple. All four had been body guards for Bill Clinton, three while campaigning for President and when he was Governor of Arkansas.They also were the ONLY 4 BATF agents killed at Waco. ]

Here’s some real, complicit cover-up / fraud on the part of the federal government, et als:

 

October 15, 2010 (*see infra {ultimately delivered by UPS})

 

 

Steven M. Martinez, Assistant Director In Charge
Federal Bureau of Investigation, USDOJ
11000 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 1700

Los Angeles, CA 90024

 

 

Dear Sir:

 

I enclose herewith 3 copies of the within DVD rom autorun disk (which will open in your computer’s browser) as per your office’s request as made this day (the disk and contents have been scanned by Avast, McAfee, and Norton which I’ve installed on my computer to prevent viral attacks / infection and are without threat). I also include 1 copy of the DVD as filed with the subject court as referenced therein (which files are also included on the aforesaid 3 disks in a separate folder named ‘112208opocoan’). The (civil) RICO action (as you’re aware, the RICO Act is a criminal statute which provides a civil remedy, including treble damages and attorney fees, as an incentive for private prosecution of said claims probably owing to the fact that the USDOJ seems somewhat overwhelmed and in need of such assistance given the seriousness and prevalence of said violations of law which have a corrupting influence on the process, and which corruption is pervasive). A grievance complaint against Coan was also filed concurrently with the subject action and held in abeyance pending resolution of the action which was illegally dismissed without any supporting law and in contravention of the Order of The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge, USDC, District Connecticut. The files below the horizontal rule are the referenced documents as filed. (Owing to the damage to the financial interests of both the U.S. and the District of Congresswoman Roybal-Allard, viz., Los Angeles, the Qui Tam provisions of the Federal False Claims Act probably would apply and I would absent resolution seek to refer the within to a firm with expertise in that area of the law with which I am not familiar).

 

 

The document in 5 pages under penalty of perjury I was asked to forward to the FBI office in New Haven is probably the best and most concise summary of the case  RICO Summary to FBI Under Penalty of Perjury at Their Request (5 pages)      [  ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf   http://albertpeia.com/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf          ].

 

 

The correspondence I received from the Congresswoman by way of email attachment (apparent but typical problem with my mail) along with my response thereto is included on the 3 disks as     fbicorrespondencereyes.htm     .   With regard to the calls to the FBI’s LA and New Haven, CT offices: There was one call to the LA office and I was referred to the Long Beach, CA office where I personally met with FBI Agent Jeff Hayes to whom I gave probative evidentiary documents of the money laundering which he confirmed as indicative of same (he was transferred from said office within approximately a month of said meeting and his location was not disclosed to me upon inquiry). The matter was assigned to FBI Agent Ron Barndollar and we remained in touch for in excess of a decade until he abruptly retired (our last conversation prior to his retirement related to the case and parenthetically, Rudy Giuliani whose father I stated had been an enforcer for the mob to which he registered disbelief and requested I prove it, which I did – he served 12 years in prison, aggravated assault/manslaughter? – and no, there is no Chinese wall of separation – Andrew Maloney’s the one that prosecuted gotti).

 

 

In contradistinction to the statement in said correspondence, there is a plethora of information including evidence supporting the claims set forth in the    RICO VERIFIED COMPLAINT    (see infra). Such includes and as set forth in the case, inter alia,

 

 

 

 

There is applicable insurance / surety coverage and neither LA, nor creditors, nor I should continue to have been damaged by this brazened corrupt and illegal scenario, which should be resolved in accordance with the meaningful rules of law apposite thereto.

 

 

Sincerely,

 

 

Albert L. Peia

611 E. 5th Street, #404

Los Angeles, CA 90013

(213) 219-**** (cell phone)

(213) 622-3745 (listed land line but there are unresolved problems with the line, computer connection may be the reason but I hesitate to chance greater non-performance / worsening by their ‘fix’ so cell phone best for contact).{recent change 323-786-6651 -magic jack}

 

 

                       ----------

 

*The foregoing and as indicated therein was previously send 9-14-10 but delivery confirmation was flawed as set forth below and my inquiries to the u.s. postal service rebuffed (I believe tampered with inasmuch as your office could not locate same). This cover letter (9-13-10) is on the 3 disks with navigable hyperlinks to the subject files for ease of reference, including the files in the RICO action as indicated. (10-15-10) I spoke with Rose, FBI, ADIC Secretary, who indicates once again that your office has not received the aforesaid and which can reasonably be presumed to have been tampered with, and hence, a violation of the federal statute concerning same. (Ultimately delivered by UPS) ]

 

 

http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf       http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm        Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud  WP Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown.    America Is a Failed State Because It Won’t Prosecute Financial Crime  Washington’s Blog / the grim economic reality   [  http://albertpeia.com/grimreality.htm           

CRIME STATS(u.s.No.1)

Rank  

Countries 

Amount 

 

# 1  

United States:

11,877,218 

 

# 2  

United Kingdom:

6,523,706 

 

# 3  

Germany:

6,507,394 

 

UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE...      ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims ' Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud  WP | Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown.        


THE OBAMA DECEPTION’  http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv    

 


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Al Peia

 

 

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Has the IMF gone lax on Europe? The International Monetary Fund has avoided walloping private investors with the sort of losses that wiped out banks in developing countries during earlier crises, sparking criticism that the agency has a double standard. (Washington Post) [ Lax? As in ex-lax, the stool-softening laxative that will have everyone crappin’ all over the place. Just give them a little time ( http://ex-lax.com  - Excellent mornings guaranteed by ex-lax®. The ex-lax brand is an expert in gentle, dependable overnight relief. ) Yes, lots of excellent mourning on the way. Greece passes unpopular property tax The new tax is an attempt to raise $2.7 billion in revenue and prove to European creditors that the country is serious about meeting its fiscal targets. But the measure hits hard for Greek families already struggling.  (Washington Post) [  European bank continues bond-buying It has become the region’s “last resort” investor as it tries to keep a lid on the rates paid by Italy, Spain.  (Washington Post) [ Nothing succeeds quite like failure in the ‘new west’. From people-killing, nation-bankrupting, nation-destroying perma wars to QE’s to gimmicks to ‘warp speed’ currency printing presses, the lock-step rush for the abyss like lemmings they’ve become. Never mind that across the board, such as the aforementioned has actually exacerbated the crisis / problems they were supposedly meant to solve. This truly has become a ubiquitous scenario of the blind leading the blind; with the blindest of all, viz., pervasively corrupt – defacto bankrupt america, leading the charge (no pun intended – though their credit bears mentioning ,   Mark Hulbert,CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) [ Of course Mr. Hulbert is correct in pointing out the folly of what’s purportedly causing the meltdown. Indeed, he might even borrow from the homespun wisdom of the mama of that stellar investigative reporter, formerly of SNL fame, Rosanne Rosanna Dana, who reminds us ‘ It’s always somethin’ ‘ . Indeed, Rosanne; it is always somethin’… just not the somethin’ that the frauds on wall street et als say it is. The fact is the markets are grossly over-valued courtesy of a myriad of fraudulent tools; from computer-prgrammed high-frequency trade churn-and-earn scams, to ever more worthless funny money, to blatant misrepresentation / fudged numbers, etc.. Will you be left holding their worthless bag of hot potatoes? Will you be their fool … again … in this suckers’ market? ]  — ‘Greece ate my homework. Not only that, if you believe the financial headlines, Greece is responsible for almost every financial ill that has beset the investment arena over the last 18 months. I say it’s time the headline writers came up with a new story to “explain” what’s happening to the stock market.

Consider last week, for example, when investors’ concern about a possible Greek default supposedly caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +1.33%   to lose 738 points and the combined market capitalizations of all publicly traded stocks in the U.S. to lose $865 billion.
How could Greece have been the cause of that, when Greece’s total sovereign debt (counting both government debt and from the country’s monetary authorities) amounts to $393 billion, according to the International Monetary Fund? It doesn’t make sense, even if Greece’s debt were completely owed to U.S. banks — which it most definitely is not.

Blaming Greece makes even less sense when we focus on more than just the last week. Since the stock market high this spring, for example, U.S. stocks have lost approximately $2.5 trillion in market cap. Once again, the prime suspect is concern over Europe’s debt situation.

Yet the $2.5 trillion loss is more than twice the total debt (from both the government and the monetary authorities) of Greece, Spain and Portugal combined — the three PIIGS countries considered to be most in danger of default.

Why, then, do so many investment commentators persist in telling the story that Europe’s debt situation is to blame? Because it’s a convenient and easy explanation to fall back upon, especially in the face of a market that is otherwise acting so inscrutably.

How many of us have the guts to say that we don’t really know why the market went up or down? Rather than admitting that, we instead tell stories — akin to Rudyard Kipling’s “Just So” stories, such as the one about how the leopard got his spots.

Blaming Greece is only the latest example of this. My perennial favorite is the oft-used explanation that the market went up (or down) on a given day because there were more buyers than sellers (or more sellers than buyers). This is just intellectual laziness, of course: During any trading session there are always the same number of buyers and sellers.

Investors need to let Greece rest in peace. That country has enough problems of its own without being asked to take responsibility for ours as well.’

Split opens over Greek bail-out terms Sep 27th, 2011 15:37  News (Financial Times) — A split has opened in the eurozone over the terms of Greece’s second €109bn bail-out with as many as seven of the bloc’s 17 members arguing for private creditors to swallow a bigger writedown on their Greek bond holdings, according to senior European officials.The divisions have emerged amid mounting concerns that Athens’ funding needs are much bigger than estimated just two months ago. They threaten to unpick a painfully negotiated deal reached with private sector bond holders in July.…Because of the recent economic downturn and Greece’s slow implementation of austerity measures, officials estimate Athens’ funding needs over the next three years have grown beyond the €172bn forecast this summer.[source]

PG View: Missed numbers out of Greece? Say it isn’t so. How far beyond €172 bln are we talking here? Does any number they give have any meaning? The funding needs when the last deal was cut back 0n 21-Jul where €109 bln, since then Greece’s needs have exploded about 60%…or more! No sane investor would throw more money into this sinkhole of unknowns.

Europe’s High-Risk Gamble Sep 27th, 2011 News by Martin Feldstein (ProSyn) — The Greek government needs to escape from an otherwise impossible situation. It has an unmanageable level of government debt (150% of GDP, rising this year by ten percentage points), a collapsing economy (with GDP down by more than 7% this year, pushing the unemployment rate up to 16%), a chronic balance-of-payments deficit (now at 8% of GDP), and insolvent banks that are rapidly losing deposits.The only way out is for Greece to default on its sovereign debt. When it does, it must write down the principal value of that debt by at least 50%. The current plan to reduce the present value of privately held bonds by 20% is just a first small step toward this outcome.[source]

 

SHILLER: House Prices Probably Won’t Hit Bottom For Years Sep 27th, 2011  News (BusinessInsider) — The July numbers for the most widely followed measure of house prices, the S&P/Case-Shiller Index, were released this morning.The numbers weren’t terrible–on a seasonally adjusted basis, July was basically the same as June–but one of the creators of the index, Professor Robert Shiller of Yale University, isn’t taking much solace in them.The economy has deteriorated significantly since July, Professor Shiller observes, and he suspects that the housing market has followed suit.[source]

Roubini: U.S. in Throes of Economic Contraction Sep 27th, 2011 News (Bloomberg) — Most advanced economies are lapsing back into recession while the U.S. is already in the throes of an economic contraction, according to Nouriel Roubini, co- founder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics LLC.“The way I see the global economy, I think we’re entering into a recession again in most advanced economies,” Roubini said in a panel discussion today at the Bloomberg Dealmakers Summit in New York. “I think we’re already into one in the U.S. based on the hard and soft data — same with most of the euro zone, same with the United Kingdom.” [source]  David Rosenberg: “It’s Time To Start Calling This For What It Is: A Modern Day Depression” Zero Hedge

 

 

 

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IMF chief warns of recession (Washington Post) [ Little bit late in the game for that! Yet, had she warned of depression, given the ‘way behind the curve factor’, she’d certainly have some wiggle room based upon obfuscation and semantics alone.                                                                               

The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed!  Train Reading: The Stock Market Is (Criminally) Insane The Wall Street Journal  ,  This is still an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits because there’s much worse to come!  [  Bernanke calls unemployment a ‘national crisis’   28 Sep 2011 Fed chief Ben Bernanke said Wednesday that the nation’s weak labor market was “a national crisis” - Duh! No-recession-wall-street-lovin’-helicopter ben’s … done it again! … brilliant description of unfortunately what already is thanks in large part to his wall (fraud) street largess / welfare in the form of QE’s, etc. , Unthinkable Poised to Happen on Wall Street. See Disturbing Charts. (Moneynews) http://w3.newsmax.com/a/aftershockb/video.cfm?PROMO_CODE=CD97-1     ,  Prepare for Lehman Brothers Part 2   ,  Arguments for Being in the Crash Camp   Conor Sen Sep 28, 2011  ,  Now's Not the Time to Take on Equity Market Exposure at Minyanville Erik Swarts Sep 28, 2011 ,  [video]Buying on Rumor - Prepare For The Selling On NewsTheStreet.com TV ,  End of Quarter Price Mark-Ups; Dave’s Daily   http://www.thestreet.com/story/11260606/1/end-of-quarter-price-mark-ups-daves-daily.html  Dave Fry  9-27-11 ‘All you need do is view the last week of June 2011, the previous quarter end, and you'll note a similar quarter end jam-job…’  , Roubini: U.S. in Throes of Economic Contraction Sep 27th, 2011 News (Bloomberg) , SHILLER: House Prices Probably Won’t Hit Bottom For Years Sep 27th, 2011  News (BusinessInsider) , David Rosenberg: “It’s Time To Start Calling This For What It Is: A Modern Day Depression” Zero Hedge  , Split opens over Greek bail-out terms Sep 27th, 2011 15:37  News (Financial Times) ,   The familiar fraud/pattern of end-of-month/quarter window dressing b***s*** story of ‘hopes’ (ie., americanized funny-money fraud in the eurozone, etc.) from the frauds on wall street …  Dave’s Daily:’.. The HAL 9000s have been doing business as HFTs (High Frequency Traders) launching many buy or sell programs using complex algorithms which can drive prices on indexes higher or lower in dramatic fashion. One of their great acts is called "quote stuffing". It's another illegal activity which the SEC hasn't quite figured out. It's as futile for them as the illegal fee-driven recent end-of-quarter price jam-job..’   , despite the reality of bad news , New home sales hit 6-month low, prices drop , Euro zone damps talk of rapid debt crisis steps , On the Lookout for a Red October Minyanville ‘ … Aside from history, if we take a look at the global environment, there are a handful of things suggesting that we will experience a turbulent October…’  ,    Suckers’ rally into the close to suck suckers in and keep suckers sucked in based on lingering hopes for unaffordably damaging funny money / QE ultimately taxpayer funded / borne bailout / welfare for these fraudulent ‘titans of capitalism’ on wall street, viz., nothing whatsoever ( watch for their fraudulent / illegal end of month/quarter window dressing - Play It Again Sam: Dave's Daily ‘ ... The HAL 9000s have been doing business as HFTs (High Frequency Traders) launching many buy or sell programs using complex algorithms which can drive prices on indexes higher or lower in dramatic fashion. One of their great acts is called "quote stuffing". It's another illegal activity which the SEC hasn't quite figured out. It's as futile for them as the illegal fee-driven recent end-of-quarter price jam-job. One of these actions was featured courtesy of our friends at Zero Hedge and depicted below as it occurred Thursday afternoon. The first chart features the quotes per second (NOTE: one instance exceeding 800 quotes per second). The next chart shows the market's simultaneous reaction.  http://www.thestreet.com/tsc/daves/082511/image002.jpg  )  , and bad news (  Soros: US Is Already in Double-Dip Recession CNBC.com  ,   Stocks: Don't Get All Comfortable Just Yet WS /Conway ,  Stocks Endure Worst Five-Day Slamming Since '08, Still On Edge About Greece Forbes , More Pain Is Coming To Equities  http://regator.com/p/253227580/more_pain_is_coming_to_equities  Penguin Capital Markets , David Cameron: world on brink of new economic crisis London Telegraph , Every Age Group Is Getting Poorer In America, Except For One Advisor Perspectives , Global economy pushed to the brink Sep 23rd, 2011 News Financial Times , European and US Economies Teetering on Weak Policy, Leadership Minyanville Kerr , Moody's downgrades 8 Greek banks (AP)  ,   Signs The Perfect Economic Storm Is Coming  http://www.bullfax.com/?q=node-signs-perfect-economic-storm-coming  ,   America’s debt woe is worse than Greece’s Sep 21st, 2011 News (CNN) — ‘Our government is utterly broke. There are signs everywhere one looks. Social Security can no longer afford to send us our annual benefit statements. The House can no longer afford its congressional pages. The Pentagon can no longer afford the pension and health care benefits of retired service members. NASA is no longer planning a manned mission to Mars. We’re broke for a reason. We’ve spent six decades accumulating a huge official debt (U.S. Treasury bills and bonds) and vastly larger unofficial debts to pay for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid benefits to today’s and tomorrow’s 100 million-plus retirees. The government’s total indebtedness — its fiscal gap — now stands at $211 trillion, by my arithmetic. [source]’  ,  $16 muffins, $8 coffee served in Justice audit , Market Recap: FOMC Announces Operation Twist, Banks Tumble, Investors Flee Sovereign Debt Wall St. Cheat Sheet September 21, 2011, Wall Street sinks 3 percent after Fed cites economic "risks"  NEW YORK (Reuters)  ,   Moody's downgrades big banks on changed policy  ,  Italy downgraded, IMF says Europe behind the curve  Reuters  ,  IMF downgrades outlook for US and Europe economies [Sep 20, 2011] ... Fund has sharply downgraded its outlook for the U.S. economy through 2012 ...  http://finance.yahoo.com/news/IMF-downgrades-outlook-for-US-apf-1240337037.html?x=0 much worse than expected:  Market Recap: S&P Downgrades Italy, Housing Starts Tumble, Markets Wait on funny-money no-recession ben bernanke   Wall St Cheat Sheet ,   IMF Downgrades Global Economic Outlook  ,  Drudgereport: IMF WARNS: INTO THE DANGER ZONE... ...warns of USA 'lost decade'  ,  New High: 37% Say Their Home Is Worth Less Than Remaining Mortgage Payments Rasmussen  ,  30 Signs That The U.S. Economy Is About To Go Into The Toilet The Economic Collapse  ,  A Fed IOER Cut Could Backfire on Banks, Warns Pimco  ,   3 Reasons Markets Were Up As Central Banks Stepped in to Boost Dollar Liquidity in European Banks Wall St. Cheat Sheet Today the Department of Labor announced that consumer prices had climbed twice what economists had predicted in August, while initial jobless claims jumped last week to their highest level since June. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s report on manufacturing in the region contracted more than expected in September, while its general economic index dropped to its weakest reading since November 2010, indicating that companies in the region covered by the New York Fed’s manufacturing index are cutting back. The consumer-price report also showed that hourly earnings fell in August in their biggest one-month decline since July 2008, while the cost of energy, food, healthcare, and shelter all rose.‘ ,  Geithner: Economy In “An Early Stage” Of Crisis  ,  Flat retail sales keeps U.S. on recession watch ) fraud  ( ETFs have potential to become the next toxic scandal Sep 19th, 2011 News (The Telegraph) Financial Stability Board (FSB), an international super-regulator, wrote a prescient if less than catchily-titled paper “Potential financial stability issues arising from recent trends in Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)”..warning – ETFs are not the cheap and transparent vehicles the marketers would have us believe ..no one who read the FSB report was surprised to see the words ETF and rogue trader in the same sentence… half of the ETFs in Europe today do not match the index they are designed to track by holding all of its constituent shares.. Derivative trades add a second layer of uncertainty .. the counterparty risk that the organisation on the other side of the contract might go bust. Even worse, the provider of the ETF might sometimes be a part of the same organisation as the derivatives desk carrying out the swap…For reasons which I’m not sure I could explain even if I had the space, it is possible for the number of shares sold short in an ETF to massively exceed the actual number of shares available.’) / manipulated programmed hft (high frequency trades – see, ie.,  What to Expect Next From the Markets , Dave’s Daily, infra ) and b***s*** alone! [ Stock Market Secret Word of the Day Is 'Delusion' WSJ  ,  watch for fake data / reports out of their sheer desperation  ,  ‘american technology is horrendous and vastly overrated!’ I really mean it; and that’s reality, which speaks volumes about the pathetic state of the world , Minyanville's T3 Daily Recap: Market Squeeze Continues, But Was it a Trap?  By T3Live.com ‘Today's action … another clever ploy to suck in longs while relieving some of the oversold condition of the market’  ,  Don't Trust Wall Street and this Market  ETFguide ,  Congress budget agency warns panel of economic ills  ,  Nearly 1 in 6 Americans in poverty, Census says  ,  Cisco cuts long-term sales growth forecast  ,  International alarm over euro zone crisis grows  ,  Why Can't Wall Street Be Honest With The Public? Forbes  ,  Venture capital veteran Perkins sees danger ahead  , These Wall Street Firms are About to Start Firing People Like Crazy  ,   Same Alan Greenspan Who Warned Against Budget Surplus Now Warns About Deficit  ,  ETF Redemptions Highest Since 2008: Report ETF Trends , 20 Signs Of Imminent Financial Collapse In Europe The Economic Collapse ,  The 2nd Edge Of Modern Financial Repression: Manipulating Inflation Indexes To Steal From Retirees & Public Workers Gold Seek  Lawless America: 20 Examples Of Desperate People Doing Desperate Things The American Dream  ,  Poverty In America: A Special Report The Economic Collapse | America is getting poorer.  How Greece Is Mocking the Rest of the World  [ Well, let’s get real here! There’s plenty to mock in this world, and Greece is hardly the nation to be doing the mocking. I think it’s the markets that are mocking the rest of the world’s stupidity for buying into this false reality / obfuscation / fraud, particularly by way of the now pervasive worldwide acceptance of the american strategy of currency debasement which really is a fraud facilitator because it masks to all but the intelligent few the underlying economic weakness and decline. A simplistic example, though not perfect, is apropos here: a company sells a product for 1 dollar which costs 1 dollar to make (assuming arguendo to cover fixed expenses - no profit). The fed over-printing / creating dollars like mad to the point where it now takes 2 dollars to render the same purchasing power of  1 dollar when the goods were produced. The company sells the products for 2 dollars (the previous equivalent of 1 dollar before debasement). The company is now showing earnings 1 dollar per unit sold, yet in real terms, they’ve gotten no more than the equivalent of that 1 dollar per unit. (If you’ve been to the grocery store lately, particularly the last 1-2 months, I’ve found meats, etc., to be up 50-100%, etc.). The same obfuscating manipulations are applicable to assets generally, and to those pieces of paper called stocks which are even ‘worse for the wear’ since churn-and-earn commissions at lightning computerized speed are being subtracted from this illusory ‘enhanced value’ which in reality doesn’t exist at all. ( Such manipulations from currency translation also provide ‘arbitrage opportunities’ though similarly largely ultimately subtracted from no real value being created. ) This is why fraudulent wall street loves the fed’s QE’s and dollar debasement / over-printing / creating and also why it’s been a dismal failure and a net negative in real economic terms as seen on main street and in the decimation of the middle class and growing ranks of the poor. In the analysis of securities, this would be considered ‘the quality of earnings factor’ that goes into the assignment of a p/e multiple to the projected earnings. Sufficeth to say, this is no longer done on wall street in any real or legitimate fashion, if at all. Indeed, it’s a fair statement to say that security analysis is no longer a ‘practice’ as same was considered, once upon a time, by value investors / analysts. As set forth by Dave and Cooper, infra, computerized programmed manipulation at lightning speed has been expedient in the short run for the wall street frauds but ultimately leads to the inevitable crash since as I often reiterate: Remember, there is no modern day alchemy that spins worthless paper into gold except fraudulently for the frauds on wall street who’ve literally oftimes done exactly that; ‘cashing out’ for hard currency and gold, precious metals, at everyone else’s expense including main street. They’re just not that important and represent, like termites eating away at the nation’s foundation, a drag on the economy, the nation as one would expect from parasites such as they are’. What to Expect Next From the Markets Minyanville  Jeffrey Cooper ‘Conclusion: It looks like a program was run using the least amount of dollars to goose the indices by focusing on some big cap names like Apple, Amazon, Baidu, IBM, and Caterpillar { Apple Hits New High (Update1) [ 9-19-11 This manipulated programmed trade to froth markets is a crash in the making – sell at these ridiculous levels / take profits! },  Dave’s Daily:’.. The HAL 9000s have been doing business as HFTs (High Frequency Traders) launching many buy or sell programs using complex algorithms which can drive prices on indexes higher or lower in dramatic fashion. One of their great acts is called "quote stuffing". It's another illegal activity which the SEC hasn't quite figured out. It's as futile for them as the illegal fee-driven recent end-of-quarter price jam-job..’] Simon Maierhofer,September 16, 2011, ‘Webster's dictionary defines gullible as naive and easily duped or cheated'…’     

 

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Obama rejects Palestinians U.N. bid  While rejecting bid for statehood, president delivers clear statement of support for Israel in speech  (Washington Post) [ Will the real wobama the b (for b***s***) please stand up wobamas john kerry today and gone tomorrow all sides of all issues while standing for nothing at all that talk with netanayahoo they really must have plenty on wobama and yet to be exposed if no co-wop with israel ( even beyond whats already known and not public as it should be THE OBAMA DECEPTION  http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv   ) the republicans, wobama, and democrats are just falling all over one another to please israel, albeit from an elevation no greater than their knees. How totally pathetic they are! How myopic! How totally unprincipled! How self-defeating! How self-destructive! No small wonder pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt americas irreparably broken! Americas debt woe is worse than Greeces Sep 21st, 2011 News (CNN) Our government is utterly broke. There are signs everywhere one looks. Social Security can no longer afford to send us our annual benefit statements. The House can no longer afford its congressional pages. The Pentagon can no longer afford the pension and health care benefits of retired service members. NASA is no longer planning a manned mission to Mars. Were broke for a reason. Weve spent six decades accumulating a huge official debt (U.S. Treasury bills and bonds) and vastly larger unofficial debts to pay for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid benefits to todays and tomorrows 100 million-plus retirees. The governments total indebtedness its fiscal gap now stands at $211 trillion, by my arithmetic. [source]     Drudgereport: Obama re-affirms desire for Palestinian state...  

Palestinian move hits Dem vote base; Republicans woo Jewish electorate...
Israel Floats 'Interim Solution' To Palestinian Statehood Debate [ Half measures will not do! Too much time, resources have been wasted! Time for the final solution’… the choices: peaceful or non-peaceful; rational or irrational; reasonable or unreasonable! There has been nothing to have changed the reasonable expectations created by secretary of state clinton and wobama herselves in espousing this administrations unequivocal position in support of Palestinian statehood! ] ...
REPORT: SOLYNDRA execs to plead Fifth...
HOUSE TO PROBE OBAMA ACTIONS ON GOV'T LOAN...
Second witness says White House tried to steer testimony...

Abbas announces U.N. member bid Move appears to seal fate of U.S. efforts to broker a deal to resume Israeli-Palestinian talks. (Washington Post) [ U.S. (israeli) efforts? Resume infinite talks? Is this some parallel universe theyre operating in? Lets apply the Einstein definition to such a preposterous position promulgated by the u.s. / israelis: Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Time for action regarding this long overdue independent statehood which should be fate accomplis! U.N. showdown could test U.S. role in Mideast One week before a United Nations vote over Palestinian statehood, the Obama administration is confronting the stark new limits of its influence. (Washington Post) [  What role? As israels mouthpiece? War, war, and more war? Death, destruction, and self-defeat including defacto bankruptcy for the u.s.? Fomenting anti-american sentiment? What role? The role the israeli lobby says is appropriate for america? How foolish america has been! Anxieties mount over Palestinian statehood bid (WP) [ And anxieties mount over no statehood bid! What gives here! Only yesterday (not long ago), hillary clinton was talking about the need for and appropriateness of same. Has the israeli lobby, so costly and detrimental to american interests here and abroad, given her and hers a talking to? . U.S. vetoes Security Council resolution denouncing Israeli settlements (WP) [ Drudgereport: Hillary Clinton: Israeli Settlements 'Illegitimate' [We know that hill Weve known that for quite some time along with their illegal nukes, war crimes, etcThe whole world knows that so dont just talk about it,DO SOMETHING!]..pervasively corrupt, defacto americas self-defeating,self-destructive way U.S. vetoes Security Council resolution denouncing Israeli settlements Sounds like a plan!..for self-destruction! ] Israel's fear (WP)[Wake up! Illegal nuke totin, war crimes nation israels fears-p l e a s e, spare me the pro-israeli b*** s*** ! What israel fears is a projection of their own ill-founded motives/actions for which all norms, rules, laws governing civilized behavior are suspended for expedience at the least, and blood-thirst that some posit as a remnant of their historic role as Christ-killers(with roman juice).  Isnt it time, in these desperate times for america, to put u.s., not israels interests, first.Who cares what israel fears!In 1948, U.S. Secretary of Defense James Forrestal, an opponent of the creation of a Jewish state in Palestine, warned that, even though failure to go along with the Zionists might cost President Truman the states of New York, Pennsylvania, and California, it was about time that somebody should pay some consideration to whether we might not lose the United States!     Israel wary of transition in Egypt, concerned about regional stability (Washington Post) [ Who cares what the paranoid, war criminal, illegal nuke totin, war criminal israelis are wary of. This country has gone down the tubes cow-towing to the paranoid, self-interested concerns of the psycho / sociopathic zionist israelis who are forever projecting their own pathological motives to every turn of history while ignoring their own culpability in producing the very outcomes they purportedly seek to avoid. War, conflict, greed, bloodshed is the historically based israeli way. ]   A resurgent Syria alarms u.s., israel (Washington Post) [  Tell me! What doesnt alarm these two paranoid, zionist neo-nazi regimes of oppression, suppression, aggression, and regression. If they were individuals, theyd undoubtedly be diagnosed as psychopaths, sociopaths totally ignorant of the rights of others, laws, civilized behavior as israel pads her illegal nuke arsenals with american supplied weaponry / support while expecting all other nations to role over and die. Bipolar / manic / depressive, the ups and downs are increasingly difficult for even americans to follow. Obssessive / compulsive thy names are zionist israel / america. Projection / displacement regarding their own illegal acts, war crimes, etc.; what they distinguished from what they do dissociative identity disorder, (dissociative) psychogenic fugue? Yes the u.s. and israel are the worlds lunatics, sorely in need of therapy! ]  Syria's fresh interference in Lebanon and its increasingly sophisticated weapons shipments to Hezbollah have alarm officials and prompt Israel's military to consider striking a Syrian weapons depot.

 

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Lewis: What would MLK say to Obama?  (Washington Post) [ He’d say not color of skin, but that ‘content of character thing’ should at least start at the DOJ under fellow black Holder. I mean, who would take them seriously if it didn’t!  UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE...ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims '.    White House turns attention to blacks Focus comes amid a growing concern that economic conditions might hamper black voter turnout. (Washington Post) [ As if we couldn’t see that coming. Yet, the ‘make-work, make-shift’ jobs already extant in the federal, state, local ‘public service’ sectors along with the otherwise unemployable at, ie., the u.s. postal service, etc., are uneconomic and overly costly (Drudgereport: Obama Economists Admit: 'Stimulus' Cost $278,000 per Job... ) at best and downright wasteful at worst, the latter being the most prevalent scenario. Moreover, despite the rhetoric, blacks will always ‘back the black’. No criteria. No analysis. ‘Back the black’ their despoiling cry. I think wobama and holder are probably more concerned with making sure the ‘black panthers’ are in full force at the polls to intimidate white voters, which racism they’ve given ‘carte blanche’, protection from prosecution … UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE...ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims '. With wobama et als, the jive-talking b***s*** never ends!     Robinson: King’s dream remains unrealized  (Washington Post) [ Yeah! That ‘content of their character’ thing’s a b***ch to live up to … just don’t measure up! What’s a white person to do, especially when black atty. General Holder with Obama’s tacit approval is racist himself (themselves)  UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE...ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims '. Drudgereport: 'Mob' beatings at WI state fair...
'Hundreds of young black people beating white people'... [ Typical…  ]
Fairgoers 'pulled out of cars'...
'They were just going after white people'...
Heightened security...

[ .. (the following incident is my personal experience: black perps, white victims)‘.. while walking through Military Park (a sliver of a “park” - more a pedestrian thoroughfare/cement walks) in newark, new jersey on the way to the bank during lunch hour, I heard the clearly audible screams/cries of what turned out to be an old lady on the ground with blood streaming from her mouth. I ran toward the sound of the cries, the source of which I could not see because there were so many people in and about this thoroughfare so as to block any vision of the source of the cries. When I came to the woman, on the ground, blood streaming from her mouth, I asked what happened, to which she responded she had been hit in the mouth and knocked to the ground, her purse stolen/put inside her shopping bag, and she pointed out the criminal casually now walking across the main street. Nobody stopped to help her, many having passed her by. I slammed the thug to the ground so hard that, in light of all the blood and confusion (limbic system / adrenalin flow) I thought I had been stabbed (the blood was from his elbows hitting the pavement so hard - no one helped / a crowd gathered / an undercover cop happened along). When I testified at the Grand Jury Proceeding I made sure his threat on my life was set forth in prima facie fashion so as to maximize the DA’s position with both felonies ( he went to prison – pled out ). The other case I wrote about here ( This was included on my website in the Psychology forum discussion of ‘bystander effect’ / diffusion of responsibility. ) - Having had occasion to have run down a mugger in newark, n.j. who apparently had followed a girl from the bank on her way to the bursar to pay tuition, though in pretty good shape, I was astounded by how totally exhausting such a pursuit was, how much like rubber my arms were when I traded punches with the perpetrator, and truth be told, if I had a flashlight on my belt, I have little doubt that I would have probably used it to subdue the perp (a police officer here in California was the object of intense criticism for having used a flashlight to subdue a criminal after a long chase so I included that here) . The girl was not that seriously injured, did get her pocketbook and tuition back, and the criminal went to jail (where they belong). The other thing about such a pursuit that amazed me was that no one else assisted the girl or me despite being in a position to do so. I was also mugged by 4 blacks and 2 hispanics in an incident here in Los Angeles, CA. But, to be fair and balanced, the RICO litigation involves those uncivilized who consider themselves ‘whites’ http://albertpeia.com/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf  (predominantly but not exclusively jews / romans-italians / mobsters / government slugs). ]  N.Y. bumped from foreclosure panel Iowa’s attorney general says N.Y. official “actively worked to undermine” group’s efforts in foreclosure negotiation with banks. (Washington Post) [ Yeah! No surprise here! Yet new jersey’s ‘representative’ would have been equally disingenuous in corruptly carry out his / her duties, so ‘doody-full’ are they, from there!  Sen. Chuck Grassley  “It doesn’t make sense that an agency responsible for investigations would want to get rid of potential evidence…’ [ Oh but it does make sense Sen. Grassley:   Report: SEC lawyer exposed FBI informant (WP) [ Clearly, the sec liar (sic – lawyer) is one of those typically with a ‘pre or post’ arrangement, whether implicit or explicit; you know, that ubiquitous ‘bribe thing’ in pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt, fallen  america. Indeed, the scenario typifies that national drain / sinkhole new york (new york / new jersey metro) where, for example, FBI informants were routinely exposed by ‘italians’ in the new york d.a.’s office over the objection of the FBI, and were promptly ‘dispatched’/assassinated / hit by mafia / organized crime [ this was documented with authority in the book ‘Goombata: The Improbable Rise and Fall of John Gotti and His Gang’ Cummings / Volkman  ]

 

 

http://www.albertpeia.com 

 

 

Obama cant win  NATOs success in Libya proves that no good Obama .. goes unpunished. (Washington Post) [ Yeah! I think hes correct, using most of his words: Obama cant win  NATOs success in Libya proves that no good Obama .. goes unpunished. I mean come on, with ie., war crimes nation israel and despotic saudi arabia unscathed; not to mention the defacto bankruptcy of all members of the nato alliance and americas particularly among their war crimes, whos kidding whom? Yes, its true obama / nato cant win while theyre unequivocally losing!  Saying otherwise no longer means its true!  Poll puts Obama in dead heat with 4 GOP contenders (Washington Post) [ Wow! I dont know about that seems hard to reconcile that poll with wobamas record low approval ratings consonant with wobamas record low performance consonant with the nations record low prospects in large part owing to wobamas non-performance by deviating from campaign promises; and hence, his consequent consummate performance as bush failure 3.  Unions angry over Postal Service cuts They said any move to break labor contracts to lay off 120,000 would hurt the already ailing movement. (Washington Post) [ I reiterate my call for the well managed, efficient, and reliable company, UPS to take over the operation of the poorly managed, inefficient, and unreliable USPS. Postal Service seeking 20 percent staff cut EXCLUSIVE | In cost-cutting bid, USPS also proposes withdrawing employees from existing health and retirement plans and creating its own benefit programs. Congress would need to sign off. (Washington Post) [ I think its a great idea. Indeed, 50% would be substantially better. Even better yet, UPS should take over their entire operation. After all, UPS is well managed and efficient; and also, very reliable. On the other hand, the USPS is poorly managed, inefficient, and very unreliable: 
October 15, 2010 (*see infra {ultimately delivered by UPS})

                       ----------

 

*The foregoing and as indicated therein was previously send 9-14-10 but delivery confirmation was flawed as set forth below and my inquiries to the u.s. postal service rebuffed (I believe tampered with inasmuch as your office could not locate same). This cover letter (9-13-10) is on the 3 disks with navigable hyperlinks to the subject files for ease of reference, including the files in the RICO action as indicated. (10-15-10) I spoke with Rose, FBI, ADIC Secretary, who indicates once again that your office has not received the aforesaid and which can reasonably be presumed to have been tampered with, and hence, a violation of the federal statute concerning same. (Ultimately delivered by UPS) ]Report: DOJ investigating S&P's mortgage securities ratings Associated Press The Justice Department is investigating whether the agency improperly rated dozens of mortgage securities in the years leading up to the financial crisis. (Washington Post) [ There you go the retaliation the long awaited payback (quid pro quo witheld) for long overdue downgrade. They should be investigating themselves, the SEC ( SEC destroyed documents, senator says ), among numerous other fraudulent, illegal schemes, activities. 3 Top Crooks Still Roaming Free After the Economic Crash Wall St. Cheat Sheet  The global economy and stock markets took a nose dive in 2008. But that hasnt stopped some of the biggest masterminds from escaping a day of luxury…’ The "Crimes" That Wrecked The Markets  Forbes / Lenzner  ,  SEC accused of destroying files Former agency official says SEC violated federal law by destroying records of enforcement cases in which it decided not to file charges. (Washington Post) [ Duh, ya think? The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed!     SEC destroyed documents, senator says 17 Aug 2011 The Securities and Exchange Commission may have destroyed documents and compromised enforcement case ...   Grassley: Agency may have got rid of Goldman, Madoff documents   Ronald D. Orol, MarketWatch WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) The Securities and Exchange Commission may have destroyed documents and compromised enforcement cases involving activity at large banks and hedge funds during the height of the financial crisis in 2008, according to allegations made by a lawmaker on Wednesday. From what Ive seen, it looks as if the SEC might have sanctioned some level of case-related document destruction, said Sen. Chuck Grassley, Republican of Iowa, in a letter to the agencys chairman, Mary Schapiro. Sen. Chuck Grassley  It doesnt make sense that an agency responsible for investigations would want to get rid of potential evidence. If these charges are true, the agency needs to explain why it destroyed documents, how many documents it destroyed over what timeframe, and to what extent its actions were consistent with the law. Agency staff destroyed over 9,000 files related to preliminary agency investigations, according to a letter sent in July to Grassley, the top Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee, and obtained by MarketWatch. The allegations were made by SEC enforcement attorney, Darcy Flynn, in a letter to Grassley. Flynn is a current employee, and according to the letter, received a bonus for his past years work. Flynn alleges the SEC destroyed files related to matters being examined in important cases such as Bernard Madoff and a $50 billion Ponzi scheme he operated as well as an investigation involving Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS +0.33%   trading in American International Group credit-default swaps in 2009. Flynn also alleged that the agency destroyed documents and information collected for preliminary investigations at Wells Fargo & Co. WFC +1.34% , Bank of America Corp. BAC +0.81% , Citigroup C +0.13%  , Credit Suisse CS +0.38%  , Deutsche Bank DB +0.79%  Morgan Stanley MS -0.06%  and the now-bankrupt Lehman Brothers. The letter goes into particular detail about Deutsche Bank, the former employer of current SEC enforcement chief Robert Khuzami as well as former enforcement chiefs Gary Lynch and Richard Walker…’ Sen. Chuck Grassley  It doesnt make sense that an agency responsible for investigations would want to get rid of potential evidence…’ [ Oh but it does make sense Sen. Grassley:   Report: SEC lawyer exposed FBI informant (WP) [ Clearly, the sec liar (sic lawyer) is one of those typically with a pre or post arrangement, whether implicit or explicit; you know, that ubiquitous bribe thing in pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt, fallen  america. Indeed, the scenario typifies that national drain / sinkhole new york (new york / new jersey metro) where, for example, FBI informants were routinely exposed by italians in the new york d.a.s office over the objection of the FBI, and were promptly dispatched/assassinated / hit by mafia / organized crime [ this was documented with authority in the book Goombata: The Improbable Rise and Fall of John Gotti and His Gang Cummings / Volkman  ] Train Reading: The Stock Market Is Insane The Wall Street Journal ,   Welcome To The New Bear Market For Stocks  Forbes / Suttmeier ,  Dow/Gold Ratio Lowest Since 1987 Crash   Forbes /  Adrian Ash  ,   Ignore Buffett's Advice, Don't Buy Stocks Forbes /  Dohmen , The "Crimes" That Wrecked The Markets  Forbes / Lenzner  ,  Tech Leading Market Lower The Wall Street Journal  ,  Banks closed in Fla, Ga, Ill; 2011 total is 68   ,   No Recession Coming ... It's Already Here  Previous:8-18-11 Stocks rally off lows to suck suckers in and keep suckers sucked in on bad news (Jobless Claims, Inflation Rise More Than Expected CNBC) , fraud ( SEC destroyed documents, senator says    Crimes Wrecked The Markets    ), and b***s*** alone!  MKM Bracing For SPY To Drop 8% More; Nasdaq Nearing August Lows Barrons.com,  WHY NEW LOWS ARE LIKELY  8-18-11 Maierhofer, Is It 2008 Again? Looking at the Summer Crash of 2011 Gayed A real bear market has begun …’ ,  Abandon Ship?[The USS Titanic] Yes, Because of These 5 Bearish Icebergs ... McGill ,  There's A Recession Coming According To The Data at Forbes  ,  HP, Dell hammered as tech-spending outlook darkens   JDSU, NetApp, disappointing figures, shares hit hard in after-hours trade   Dell braces investors for a bumpy road Dell makes a case on why it can better weather an upcoming storm  ,   S&P says sell Google's shares after Motorola deal  ,  STOCKS FALL AFTER FLOOD OF BAD NEWS: Here's What You Need To Know  Joe Weisenthal ,   Stocks Slip On Concern Over Europe's Debt, U.S. Data  ,  Watch Out: 2011 Looks A Lot Like The Market Top In 2007 Sean Hanlon Take A Lesson From 2007 And Sell Stocks Now at Forbes, [video] Trader: We Could Test 1120 Lows at TheStreet.com   In a Downtrend, Sell a Rally (Daily FX)     Latest: Economist Who Predicted Market Crash Warns of 2012 Aftershock. See More Here.    Famed economist predicts economic calamity in 2012. See the evidence.Newsmax http://w3.newsmax.com/a/aftershockb/video.cfm?promo_code=CA79-1      50% unemployment, 90% stock market drop, 100% inflation. See the Evidence (Newsmax.com)   Five Reason Stocks Are Crashing, Tips to Prepare for Meltdown (Moneynews) Unthinkable Poised to Happen on Wall Street. See Disturbing Charts. (Newsmax.com)  US Recession Is Guaranteed: Expert CNBC.com 

SHARE YOUR OPINION ON THE DEBT LIMIT
Dear Congresswoman Roybal-Allard:

The following is my comment to an LA Times article regarding a Justice Department cover-up! As for your inquiry, all I think about day and night is a long overdue resolution to the RICO litigation as set forth therein:

ATF Chief Melson:Justice Department trying to shield officials (LATimes) Serrano

 

I believe him!

 I truly empathize with the ATF in terms of government cover-ups, notably by even the DOJ. You’ll recognize some familiar names (ie., Alito, Trump, Freeh (Louis Freeh now has dual citizenship with Italy), and some familiar crimes (ie., drug money laundering, etc. – real cash cow for gov’t ops, bribes, etc.). [Did you know this about the following ATF Agents who were probably viewed as loose ends: Steve Willis, Robert Williams, Todd McKeahan & Conway LeBleu:   Died February 28, 1993 by gunfire at Waco. All four were examined by a pathologist and died from identical wounds to the left temple. All four had been body guards for Bill Clinton, three while campaigning for President and when he was Governor of Arkansas.They also were the ONLY 4 BATF agents killed at Waco. ]

 

 

 

Heres some real, complicit cover-up / fraud on the part of the federal government, et als:

 

October 15, 2010 (*see infra {ultimately delivered by UPS})

 

 

Steven M. Martinez, Assistant Director In Charge
Federal Bureau of Investigation, USDOJ
11000 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 1700

Los Angeles, CA 90024

 

 

Dear Sir:

 

I enclose herewith 3 copies of the within DVD rom autorun disk (which will open in your computers browser) as per your offices request as made this day (the disk and contents have been scanned by Avast, McAfee, and Norton which Ive installed on my computer to prevent viral attacks / infection and are without threat). I also include 1 copy of the DVD as filed with the subject court as referenced therein (which files are also included on the aforesaid 3 disks in a separate folder named 112208opocoan). The (civil) RICO action (as youre aware, the RICO Act is a criminal statute which provides a civil remedy, including treble damages and attorney fees, as an incentive for private prosecution of said claims probably owing to the fact that the USDOJ seems somewhat overwhelmed and in need of such assistance given the seriousness and prevalence of said violations of law which have a corrupting influence on the process, and which corruption is pervasive). A grievance complaint against Coan was also filed concurrently with the subject action and held in abeyance pending resolution of the action which was illegally dismissed without any supporting law and in contravention of the Order of The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge, USDC, District Connecticut. The files below the horizontal rule are the referenced documents as filed. (Owing to the damage to the financial interests of both the U.S. and the District of Congresswoman Roybal-Allard, viz., Los Angeles, the Qui Tam provisions of the Federal False Claims Act probably would apply and I would absent resolution seek to refer the within to a firm with expertise in that area of the law with which I am not familiar).

 

 

The document in 5 pages under penalty of perjury I was asked to forward to the FBI office in New Haven is probably the best and most concise summary of the case  RICO Summary to FBI Under Penalty of Perjury at Their Request (5 pages)      [  ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf   http://albertpeia.com/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf          ].

 

 

The correspondence I received from the Congresswoman by way of email attachment (apparent but typical problem with my mail) along with my response thereto is included on the 3 disks as     fbicorrespondencereyes.htm     .   With regard to the calls to the FBIs LA and New Haven, CT offices: There was one call to the LA office and I was referred to the Long Beach, CA office where I personally met with FBI Agent Jeff Hayes to whom I gave probative evidentiary documents of the money laundering which he confirmed as indicative of same (he was transferred from said office within approximately a month of said meeting and his location was not disclosed to me upon inquiry). The matter was assigned to FBI Agent Ron Barndollar and we remained in touch for in excess of a decade until he abruptly retired (our last conversation prior to his retirement related to the case and parenthetically, Rudy Giuliani whose father I stated had been an enforcer for the mob to which he registered disbelief and requested I prove it, which I did he served 12 years in prison, aggravated assault/manslaughter? and no, there is no Chinese wall of separation Andrew Maloneys the one that prosecuted gotti).

 

 

In contradistinction to the statement in said correspondence, there is a plethora of information including evidence supporting the claims set forth in the    RICO VERIFIED COMPLAINT    (see infra). Such includes and as set forth in the case, inter alia,

 

 

 

 

There is applicable insurance / surety coverage and neither LA, nor creditors, nor I should continue to have been damaged by this brazened corrupt and illegal scenario, which should be resolved in accordance with the meaningful rules of law apposite thereto.

 

 

Sincerely,

 

 

Albert L. Peia

611 E. 5th Street, #404

Los Angeles, CA 90013

(213) 219-**** (cell phone)

(213) 622-3745 (listed land line but there are unresolved problems with the line, computer connection may be the reason but I hesitate to chance greater non-performance / worsening by their fix so cell phone best for contact).{recent change 323-786-6651 -magic jack}

 

 

                       ----------

 

*The foregoing and as indicated therein was previously send 9-14-10 but delivery confirmation was flawed as set forth below and my inquiries to the u.s. postal service rebuffed (I believe tampered with inasmuch as your office could not locate same). This cover letter (9-13-10) is on the 3 disks with navigable hyperlinks to the subject files for ease of reference, including the files in the RICO action as indicated. (10-15-10) I spoke with Rose, FBI, ADIC Secretary, who indicates once again that your office has not received the aforesaid and which can reasonably be presumed to have been tampered with, and hence, a violation of the federal statute concerning same. (Ultimately delivered by UPS) ]

 

 

http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf       http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm        Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holders vows to target financial fraud  WP Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown.    America Is a Failed State Because It Wont Prosecute Financial Crime  Washingtons Blog / the grim economic reality   [  http://albertpeia.com/grimreality.htm           

CRIME STATS(u.s.No.1)

Rank  

Countries 

Amount 

 

# 1  

United States:

11,877,218 

 

# 2  

United Kingdom:

6,523,706 

 

# 3  

Germany:

6,507,394 

 

UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE...      ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims ' Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holders vows to target financial fraud  WP | Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown.        


THE OBAMA DECEPTION
  http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv    

 


http://www.albertpeia.com 

 

 

 

Sincerely and Regards,

 

Al Peia

 

 

 

http://www.albertpeia.com 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9-28-11 NEWS / TOPICS



                       

The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed!  Train Reading: The Stock Market Is (Criminally) Insane The Wall Street Journal  ,  This is still an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits because theres much worse to come!  [  Bernanke calls unemployment a national crisis   28 Sep 2011 Fed chief Ben Bernanke said Wednesday that the nations weak labor market was a national crisis - Duh! No-recession-wall-street-lovin-helicopter bens done it again! brilliant description of unfortunately what already is thanks in large part to his wall (fraud) street largess / welfare in the form of QEs, etc. , Unthinkable Poised to Happen on Wall Street. See Disturbing Charts. (Moneynews) http://w3.newsmax.com/a/aftershockb/video.cfm?PROMO_CODE=CD97-1     ,  Prepare for Lehman Brothers Part 2   ,  Arguments for Being in the Crash Camp   Conor Sen Sep 28, 2011  ,  Now's Not the Time to Take on Equity Market Exposure at Minyanville Erik Swarts Sep 28, 2011 ,  [video]Buying on Rumor - Prepare For The Selling On NewsTheStreet.com TV ,  End of Quarter Price Mark-Ups; Daves Daily   http://www.thestreet.com/story/11260606/1/end-of-quarter-price-mark-ups-daves-daily.html  Dave Fry  9-27-11 All you need do is view the last week of June 2011, the previous quarter end, and you'll note a similar quarter end jam-job…’  , Roubini: U.S. in Throes of Economic Contraction Sep 27th, 2011 News (Bloomberg) , SHILLER: House Prices Probably Wont Hit Bottom For Years Sep 27th, 2011  News (BusinessInsider) , Split opens over Greek bail-out terms Sep 27th, 2011 15:37  News (Financial Times) ,   The familiar fraud/pattern of end-of-month/quarter window dressing b***s*** story of hopes (ie., americanized funny-money fraud in the eurozone, etc.) from the frauds on wall street   Daves Daily:.. The HAL 9000s have been doing business as HFTs (High Frequency Traders) launching many buy or sell programs using complex algorithms which can drive prices on indexes higher or lower in dramatic fashion. One of their great acts is called "quote stuffing". It's another illegal activity which the SEC hasn't quite figured out. It's as futile for them as the illegal fee-driven recent end-of-quarter price jam-job..   , despite the reality of bad news , New home sales hit 6-month low, prices drop , Euro zone damps talk of rapid debt crisis steps , On the Lookout for a Red October Minyanville Aside from history, if we take a look at the global environment, there are a handful of things suggesting that we will experience a turbulent October…’  ,    Suckers rally into the close to suck suckers in and keep suckers sucked in based on lingering hopes for unaffordably damaging funny money / QE ultimately taxpayer funded / borne bailout / welfare for these fraudulent titans of capitalism on wall street, viz., nothing whatsoever ( watch for their fraudulent / illegal end of month/quarter window dressing - Play It Again Sam: Dave's Daily ... The HAL 9000s have been doing business as HFTs (High Frequency Traders) launching many buy or sell programs using complex algorithms which can drive prices on indexes higher or lower in dramatic fashion. One of their great acts is called "quote stuffing". It's another illegal activity which the SEC hasn't quite figured out. It's as futile for them as the illegal fee-driven recent end-of-quarter price jam-job. One of these actions was featured courtesy of our friends at Zero Hedge and depicted below as it occurred Thursday afternoon. The first chart features the quotes per second (NOTE: one instance exceeding 800 quotes per second). The next chart shows the market's simultaneous reaction.  http://www.thestreet.com/tsc/daves/082511/image002.jpg   )  , and bad news (  Soros: US Is Already in Double-Dip Recession CNBC.com  ,   Stocks: Don't Get All Comfortable Just Yet WS /Conway ,  Stocks Endure Worst Five-Day Slamming Since '08, Still On Edge About Greece Forbes , More Pain Is Coming To Equities  http://regator.com/p/253227580/more_pain_is_coming_to_equities  Penguin Capital Markets , David Cameron: world on brink of new economic crisis London Telegraph , Every Age Group Is Getting Poorer In America, Except For One Advisor Perspectives , Global economy pushed to the brink Sep 23rd, 2011 News Financial Times , European and US Economies Teetering on Weak Policy, Leadership Minyanville Kerr , Moody's downgrades 8 Greek banks (AP)  ,   Signs The Perfect Economic Storm Is Coming  http://www.bullfax.com/?q=node-signs-perfect-economic-storm-coming  ,   Americas debt woe is worse than Greeces Sep 21st, 2011 News (CNN) Our government is utterly broke. There are signs everywhere one looks. Social Security can no longer afford to send us our annual benefit statements. The House can no longer afford its congressional pages. The Pentagon can no longer afford the pension and health care benefits of retired service members. NASA is no longer planning a manned mission to Mars. Were broke for a reason. Weve spent six decades accumulating a huge official debt (U.S. Treasury bills and bonds) and vastly larger unofficial debts to pay for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid benefits to todays and tomorrows 100 million-plus retirees. The governments total indebtedness its fiscal gap now stands at $211 trillion, by my arithmetic. [source]  ,  $16 muffins, $8 coffee served in Justice audit , Market Recap: FOMC Announces Operation Twist, Banks Tumble, Investors Flee Sovereign Debt Wall St. Cheat Sheet September 21, 2011, Wall Street sinks 3 percent after Fed cites economic "risks"  NEW YORK (Reuters)  ,   Moody's downgrades big banks on changed policy  ,  Italy downgraded, IMF says Europe behind the curve  Reuters  ,  IMF downgrades outlook for US and Europe economies [Sep 20, 2011] ... Fund has sharply downgraded its outlook for the U.S. economy through 2012 ...  http://finance.yahoo.com/news/IMF-downgrades-outlook-for-US-apf-1240337037.html?x=0 much worse than expected:  Market Recap: S&P Downgrades Italy, Housing Starts Tumble, Markets Wait on funny-money no-recession ben bernanke   Wall St Cheat Sheet ,   IMF Downgrades Global Economic Outlook  ,  Drudgereport: IMF WARNS: INTO THE DANGER ZONE... ...warns of USA 'lost decade'  ,  New High: 37% Say Their Home Is Worth Less Than Remaining Mortgage Payments Rasmussen  ,  30 Signs That The U.S. Economy Is About To Go Into The Toilet The Economic Collapse  ,  A Fed IOER Cut Could Backfire on Banks, Warns Pimco  ,   3 Reasons Markets Were Up As Central Banks Stepped in to Boost Dollar Liquidity in European Banks Wall St. Cheat Sheet Today the Department of Labor announced that consumer prices had climbed twice what economists had predicted in August, while initial jobless claims jumped last week to their highest level since June. The Federal Reserve Bank of New Yorks report on manufacturing in the region contracted more than expected in September, while its general economic index dropped to its weakest reading since November 2010, indicating that companies in the region covered by the New York Feds manufacturing index are cutting back. The consumer-price report also showed that hourly earnings fell in August in their biggest one-month decline since July 2008, while the cost of energy, food, healthcare, and shelter all rose. ,   David Rosenberg: Its Time To Start Calling This For What It Is: A Modern Day Depression Zero Hedge ,  Geithner: Economy In An Early Stage Of Crisis  ,  Flat retail sales keeps U.S. on recession watch ) fraud  ( ETFs have potential to become the next toxic scandal Sep 19th, 2011 News (The Telegraph) Financial Stability Board (FSB), an international super-regulator, wrote a prescient if less than catchily-titled paper Potential financial stability issues arising from recent trends in Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)..warning ETFs are not the cheap and transparent vehicles the marketers would have us believe ..no one who read the FSB report was surprised to see the words ETF and rogue trader in the same sentence half of the ETFs in Europe today do not match the index they are designed to track by holding all of its constituent shares.. Derivative trades add a second layer of uncertainty .. the counterparty risk that the organisation on the other side of the contract might go bust. Even worse, the provider of the ETF might sometimes be a part of the same organisation as the derivatives desk carrying out the swapFor reasons which Im not sure I could explain even if I had the space, it is possible for the number of shares sold short in an ETF to massively exceed the actual number of shares available.) / manipulated programmed hft (high frequency trades see, ie.,  What to Expect Next From the Markets , Daves Daily, infra ) and b***s*** alone! [ Stock Market Secret Word of the Day Is 'Delusion' WSJ  ,  watch for fake data / reports out of their sheer desperation  ,  american technology is horrendous and vastly overrated! I really mean it; and thats reality, which speaks volumes about the pathetic state of the world , Minyanville's T3 Daily Recap: Market Squeeze Continues, But Was it a Trap?  By T3Live.com Today's action another clever ploy to suck in longs while relieving some of the oversold condition of the market  ,  Don't Trust Wall Street and this Market  ETFguide ,  Congress budget agency warns panel of economic ills  ,  Nearly 1 in 6 Americans in poverty, Census says  ,  Cisco cuts long-term sales growth forecast  ,  International alarm over euro zone crisis grows  ,  Why Can't Wall Street Be Honest With The Public? Forbes  ,  Venture capital veteran Perkins sees danger ahead  , These Wall Street Firms are About to Start Firing People Like Crazy  ,   Same Alan Greenspan Who Warned Against Budget Surplus Now Warns About Deficit  ,  ETF Redemptions Highest Since 2008: Report ETF Trends , 20 Signs Of Imminent Financial Collapse In Europe The Economic Collapse ,  The 2nd Edge Of Modern Financial Repression: Manipulating Inflation Indexes To Steal From Retirees & Public Workers Gold Seek  Lawless America: 20 Examples Of Desperate People Doing Desperate Things The American Dream  ,  Poverty In America: A Special Report The Economic Collapse | America is getting poorer.  How Greece Is Mocking the Rest of the World  [ Well, lets get real here! Theres plenty to mock in this world, and Greece is hardly the nation to be doing the mocking. I think its the markets that are mocking the rest of the worlds stupidity for buying into this false reality / obfuscation / fraud, particularly by way of the now pervasive worldwide acceptance of the american strategy of currency debasement which really is a fraud facilitator because it masks to all but the intelligent few the underlying economic weakness and decline. A simplistic example, though not perfect, is apropos here: a company sells a product for 1 dollar which costs 1 dollar to make (assuming arguendo to cover fixed expenses - no profit). The fed over-printing / creating dollars like mad to the point where it now takes 2 dollars to render the same purchasing power of  1 dollar when the goods were produced. The company sells the products for 2 dollars (the previous equivalent of 1 dollar before debasement). The company is now showing earnings 1 dollar per unit sold, yet in real terms, theyve gotten no more than the equivalent of that 1 dollar per unit. (If youve been to the grocery store lately, particularly the last 1-2 months, Ive found meats, etc., to be up 50-100%, etc.). The same obfuscating manipulations are applicable to assets generally, and to those pieces of paper called stocks which are even worse for the wear since churn-and-earn commissions at lightning computerized speed are being subtracted from this illusory enhanced value which in reality doesnt exist at all. ( Such manipulations from currency translation also provide arbitrage opportunities though similarly largely ultimately subtracted from no real value being created. ) This is why fraudulent wall street loves the feds QEs and dollar debasement / over-printing / creating and also why its been a dismal failure and a net negative in real economic terms as seen on main street and in the decimation of the middle class and growing ranks of the poor. In the analysis of securities, this would be considered the quality of earnings factor that goes into the assignment of a p/e multiple to the projected earnings. Sufficeth to say, this is no longer done on wall street in any real or legitimate fashion, if at all. Indeed, its a fair statement to say that security analysis is no longer a practice as same was considered, once upon a time, by value investors / analysts. As set forth by Dave and Cooper, infra, computerized programmed manipulation at lightning speed has been expedient in the short run for the wall street frauds but ultimately leads to the inevitable crash since as I often reiterate: Remember, there is no modern day alchemy that spins worthless paper into gold except fraudulently for the frauds on wall street whove literally oftimes done exactly that; cashing out for hard currency and gold, precious metals, at everyone elses expense including main street. Theyre just not that important and represent, like termites eating away at the nations foundation, a drag on the economy, the nation as one would expect from parasites such as they are. What to Expect Next From the Markets Minyanville  Jeffrey Cooper Conclusion: It looks like a program was run using the least amount of dollars to goose the indices by focusing on some big cap names like Apple, Amazon, Baidu, IBM, and Caterpillar { Apple Hits New High (Update1) [ 9-19-11 This manipulated programmed trade to froth markets is a crash in the making sell at these ridiculous levels / take profits! },  Daves Daily:.. The HAL 9000s have been doing business as HFTs (High Frequency Traders) launching many buy or sell programs using complex algorithms which can drive prices on indexes higher or lower in dramatic fashion. One of their great acts is called "quote stuffing". It's another illegal activity which the SEC hasn't quite figured out. It's as futile for them as the illegal fee-driven recent end-of-quarter price jam-job..] Simon Maierhofer,September 16, 2011, Webster's dictionary defines gullible as naive and easily duped or cheated'…’     

 

 

Previous:The latest b***s*** story into the close is rich, but not as in wealthy. One interviewee / pundit even preposterously referred to the Marco Polo effect, viz., that communist Chinas rumored to be about to save one of the PIIGS, italy but whos going to save communist china really some very bad karma for communist china just round the corner! Dont forget, the markets rallied literally many hundreds of points owing to that spin / b***s*** called the euro solution, etc., which of course, never existed in reality, but great fraud points (that computerized hf commissioned churn-and-earn, up and down, get you now and get you later). Then the so-called technical support levels based on much worse than spun fundamentals / reality. Its the other way around, fools fundamentals create technical support levels, not vice versa. Unprecedented Monthly Volume Sell-Off Suggests Now's the Time to Take Shelter at Minyanville Kevin A. Tuttle Sep 12, 2011  ,  Preparing for a Credit Crisis at Minyanville  John Mauldin  ,  What's the Long-Term Outlook for Stocks and The Economy? ETFguide   Simon Maierhofer, September 12, 2011  ,    ]     Prepare For Recession And Bear Market at Forbes Sy Harding, Brace yourself for a recession ,  Senate (Quietly) Approves $500 Billion Increase in Borrowing Authority Sep 9th, 2011 by News (WSJ Blogs) PG View: Shhhhh. Dont tell anyone, but we blew through that initial $400 bln debt ceiling hike in about a month /  Europe on the Verge of a Political Breakdown News , 4 Bearish Mega Trends  Simon Maierhofer / S&P 1,100 And Lower - More Likely Than you Think  , STOCKS DEMOLISHED, EUROPE NEAR BREAKING POINT: Here's What You Need To Know Business Insider , Ominous Bear Flag Pattern Suggests S&P 500 At 1,000  Scott Redler ,Keep in mind the  r word (recession- actually should be d word for depression) subtracting out the understated inflationary price increases (deflating growth with realistic inflation deflator), were already there ( see, Burt Dohmen, Financial Crisis Phase II Is Ahead at Forbes, infra)           7 Reasons Why New Lows are Likely  ETF Guide   ,  Albert Edwards Has Another Reason You Should Worry About Profits The Wall Street Journal, Mark Gongloff   ,   Chart Shock: The REAL Unemployment Rate Is 22% The Daily Bail September 2, 2011 ,  Deja Vu All Over Again: Total US Debt Passes Debt Ceiling In Under One Month Since Extension  Sep 2nd, 2011 News (ZeroHedge)  ,   Global Recession: Right Here, Right Now at Minyanville  Mike Shedlock Sep 02, 2011  ,    Fearing An Even Worse Inflationary Depression Ahead Bob Chapman | The debauching of currencies worldwide goes on with great abandon. Previous: Typical (suckers rally into the close on still lingering hopes for more fed funny money thats a detriment / negative to all but the frauds on wall street and has been a dismal policy failure) window-dressed end of month based on bad news, fraud, and b***s*** alone watch for fake data / reports out of their sheer desperation  ,  Beware Dow In September: Do You Believe The Data?   [ NO! I DONT BELIEVE THE GOVERNMENT DATA ( Famed economist predicts economic calamity in 2012x   http://w3.newsmax.com/a/aftershockb/video.cfm?promo_code=CA79-1    , NOR DO I BELIEVE THE NON-GOVERNMENT DATA (Accounting Gimmics Resurface as Growth Flounders at TheStreet Rebekah Smith, infra)  ,   Global Recession Likely, Depression Possible: Economist  Aug 31st, 2011 by News (CNBC)  ,    Ignore Buffett's Advice, Don't Buy Stocks Forbes /  Dohmen , The "Crimes" That Wrecked The Markets  Forbes / Lenzner  ,  What to Expect Next From the Markets at Minyanville  Jeffrey Cooper Aug 29, 2011  Conclusion: It looks like a program was run using the least amount of dollars to goose the indices by focusing on some big cap names like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Baidu (BIDU), IBM (IBM), and Caterpillar (CAT) on Friday. That is why the market is so dangerous here…‘  Arguments for Being in the Crash Camp   Conor Sen  Aug 29, 2011 If you want to take risk, only own things you're willing to own in a down 20-30% tape, because that's what we could see over the next month...  , Economic / Financial Collapse Imminent Stansberry  Investment Advisory http://www.albertpeia.com/stansberrysinvestmentadvisory.flv    Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011 Dow will Fall to 3,800 4,500 by 2012 Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the latest. U.S. Dollar will Decline Housing will Decline by 40 60% from Todays Levels Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010 and 2012).  Fed Economists Predict A 15 Year Bear Market For Stocks Aug 23rd, 2011 News (BusinessInsider)  ,  End Of Cycle Smelling Like Dow 3K, Gold 3K  Forbes /  Bill Bonner   ,  No Recession Coming ... It's Already Here   , Financial Crisis Phase II Is Ahead at Forbes Bert Dohmen  In late 2007, I wrote the book Prelude To Meltdown, predicting the global crisis that occurred the following year.  I now see a similar confluence of events that warns of phase II of the global crisis My work shows that the new recession has started.”… Over the past 33 years, we have called the start of every recession, often on the exact month, or within one month, of the official start as determined one year later by the official arbiter of recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) However, inflation is far understated for political reasons. Currently, the GDP deflator is 1.8%, which hardly reflects the true rise in prices. Therefore, what is counted as growth, is actually price increases. Actual inflation, according to free market economists who calculate inflation as it was done in 1980 before the politician re-engineered it, is now more than 11%. Using that to adjust GDP for inflation, would show that the economy is now in a very sharp contraction…’ ,  NOR DO I BELIEVE THE NON-GOVERNMENT DATA (Accounting Gimmics Resurface as Growth Flounders at TheStreet Rebekah Smith) at this point of abounding desperation for both. ] Murray Coleman If you believe in seasonal factors, betting on the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) wouldnt seem like the best play about this time of year. Over the past 100 years, the Dow itself has averaged a drop of 0.8% in September, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Over the last 50 years, the Dow has averaged a fall of 0.79%; in the past 20 years the benchmark has typically dropped by 0.60% during the month…’  

 

 

Obama's Legacy: A Failed Recovery & Double-Dip Recession  Forbes / Mariotti  ‘…There will be no significant recovery in the United States of America while Barack Obama is President.  The evidence is overwhelming:  everything Obama has tried to fuel a recovery (with his Democratic allies in Congress) has failed.  Statistics claiming jobs saved by the stimulus package were mostly fiction, and cost American taxpayers about $275,000 each.  Nearly 2-1/2 million fewer Americans have jobs than before the stimulus. Barack Obama has been President for 30 months2-1/2 years. He spent the first year obsessed with passing Obamacare, a program that doesnt create jobs, but might destroy a lot of them.  He bailed out GM, but many believe that his interference didnt save GM; it merely cost taxpayers an extra $15-20 billion, and stole from legitimate investors to buy off the UAW.  His broken campaign promises are too numerous to list.  At some point, his statute of limitations on blaming Bush runs out…’   ,   The Bear Market Rally Has Begun at Minyanville   Toby Connor Aug 30, 2011 ‘…Investors need to be prepared. This is going to be a very, very convincing rally. The tendency is going to be to buy into the media hype -- that this was nothing more than a severe correction in an ongoing bull market. This was not a correction. This was the first leg down in a new cyclical (secular) bear market. And like all bear markets it will be subject to violent countertrend rallies that toy with traders' emotions, and ultimately cause investors to ride the bear all the way to the bottom…’    Scandal scarred commerce dept. report on consumer spending with anemic income figures (typically as always unworthy of belief as unbelievable anything the government says in their desperation) spurs suckers rally (along with some short covering) to suck suckers in and keep suckers sucked in.  Massive Understatement: Mohamed El-Erians reply to Frank Motek 1070am regarding particularly the 300+ point swing to the upside today, (theyre) confused! Indeed they are! But when youre commissioning those manipulated computer programmed high-frequency-trade swings, churning and earning at lightning speed, such euphemistic criticism falls short with the impact of water off a ducks back.      Moreover, how pathetic are they, those Pavlov dogs on wall street salivating at the mere prospect of a QE handout ultimately at taxpayer expense, in one form or another. Even more pathetic is the so-called rally based on a purported rethink of fedspeak alleged  to be so filled with latent / hidden meaning of a form of QE welfare down the road. Those pathetic titans of capitalism; aka, the frauds of wall street.  Never mind that the QEs have failed miserably and at great costs (inflation, financial, economic, etc.) and detriment to all but the frauds on wall street by way of their manipulated computer-programmed ( high frequency trading) commissioned churn-and-earn. Wall streets rise has been among the causes of and comcomitant to americas decline / demise. Remember, there is no modern day alchemy that spins worthless paper into gold except fraudulently for the frauds on wall street whove literally oftimes done exactly that; cashing out for hard currency and gold, precious metals, at everyone elses expense including main street. Theyre just not that important and represent, like termites eating away at the nations foundation, a drag on the economy, the nation as one would expect from parasites such as they are. So whats changed of significance? Nothing! Absolutely nothing; yet a manipulated computer-programmed ( high frequency trading bots ) churn-and-earn suckers rally based on desperation, bad news, fraud and b***s*** alone to suck suckers in and keep suckers sucked in. Horrific news on the economic front particularly since the anemic (revised downward and I think much worse than reported) 1% GDP growth is all owing to hefty price increases / inflation, fudged and not reported accurately. Financial Crisis Phase II Is Ahead at Forbes Bert Dohmen  In late 2007, I wrote the book Prelude To Meltdown, predicting the global crisis that occurred the following year.  I now see a similar confluence of events that warns of phase II of the global crisis My work shows that the new recession has started.”… Over the past 33 years, we have called the start of every recession, often on the exact month, or within one month, of the official start as determined one year later by the official arbiter of recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) However, inflation is far understated for political reasons. Currently, the GDP deflator is 1.8%, which hardly reflects the true rise in prices. Therefore, what is counted as growth, is actually price increases. Actual inflation, according to free market economists who calculate inflation as it was done in 1980 before the politician re-engineered it, is now more than 11%. Using that to adjust GDP for inflation, would show that the economy is now in a very sharp contraction…’  This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits because theres much worse to come! ,  Despite being glad that Apple has survived (though outlook now dimmed regardless of rhetoric and beyond the Jobs retirement), american technology is horrendous and vastly overrated! I really mean it, and thats reality, which speaks volumes about the pathetic state of the world ,  Famed economist predicts economic calamity in 2012. See the evidence.Newsmax  http://w3.newsmax.com/a/aftershockb/video.cfm?promo_code=CA79-1      50% unemployment, 90% stock market drop, 100% inflation. See the Evidence (Newsmax.com  ,       Bernanke - Man of Mystery: Dave's Daily at TheStreet  Bernanke did what a lot of people expected him to do -- speak softly but carry a big printing press. After being down nearly 200 points the DJIA rallied to close higher by 135 points. Pundits shrugged embracing the idea if something was really wrong Bernanke would have acted; besides, bulls' reasoned stocks are cheap based on trailing PEs of around 12. Away from that was more crummy economic news with GDP printing at only 1% growth. This may be revised lower again like most other indicators of late…’  (Daves Daily:.. The HAL 9000s have been doing business as HFTs (High Frequency Traders) launching many buy or sell programs using complex algorithms which can drive prices on indexes higher or lower in dramatic fashion. One of their great acts is called "quote stuffing". It's another illegal activity which the SEC hasn't quite figured out. It's as futile for them as the illegal fee-driven recent end-of-quarter price jam-job..)   Play It Again Sam: Dave's Daily  [ As always, Dave is spot-on as an astute, knowledgeable, seasoned veteran of the markets. ] Thursday was another great show starring Jobless Claims, Warren Buffet, HAL 9000s, Steve Jobs and, of course, Da Boyz running the CRIMEX (COMEX and CME) on precious metals options expiration.The spin on Jobless Claims data was prior claims were adjusted higher making recent higher claims look not so bad especially when you add Verizon workers. Warren Buffett entered from stage left with a $5 billion investment in Bank of America giving him 6% interest tax-free (a "coddled" billionaire?) and making he and Berkshire a new TARP program. The HAL 9000s have been doing business as HFTs (High Frequency Traders) launching many buy or sell programs using complex algorithms which can drive prices on indexes higher or lower in dramatic fashion. One of their great acts is called "quote stuffing". It's another illegal activity which the SEC hasn't quite figured out. It's as futile for them as the illegal fee-driven recent end-of-quarter price jam-job. One of these actions was featured courtesy of our friends at Zero Hedge and depicted below as it occurred Thursday afternoon. The first chart features the quotes per second (NOTE: one instance exceeding 800 quotes per second). The next chart shows the market's simultaneous reaction. http://www.thestreet.com/tsc/daves/082511/image002.jpg  Steve Jobs sadly is retiring from his leading role as Apple CEO but the stock hardly budged given the products and brand are already well-known and his retirement was much anticipated. Last, but not least certainly, was the performance of Da Boyz production of gold price manipulation…’ Previous: Manipulated computer-programmed ( high frequency trading bots ) churn-and-earn suckers rally into the close based on desperation, fraud and b***s*** alone to suck suckers in and keep suckers sucked in!   Stocks up on government report (I consistently and here now again warn of fake reports / data) on durables far better than expectations / reality100% better? I dont think so! Come on sheer desperation at best! Steve Jobs resigns from Apple, Cook becomes CEO - SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Silicon Valley legend Steve Jobs on Wednesday resigned as chief executive of Apple Inc in a stunning move that ended his 14-year reign at the technology giant he co-founded i... [ Far more than just a Silicon Valley legend, Steve Jobs literally saved Apple from extinction Im truly glad he saved Apple, my first computer (1986 - apple IIc for word processing / data based records / forms / templates / data which I interfaced with an electric typewriter for letter quality) and for that all should be thankful. Apple is the Nasdaq (40% weighting) and quite more, that now was! Thats past tense. Steve Jobs goes out a big winner as indeed he should! Yet, make no mistake, as one might expect, his timing was impeccable inasmuch as without his uniquely inspired innovation, competition moving in, and particularly the coming debacle / crisis the worst of which lies ahead, things are not looking up, in and for pervasively corrupt / defacto bankrupt america particularly, euphemistically speaking. ]  End Of Cycle Smelling Like Dow 3K, Gold 3K  Forbes /  Bill Bonner  Our view [ the correct view ] is that the bear market began in January 2000. The feds fought it off with two huge extravaganzas of spending the first beginning in 2001 the other after 2008. Stimulus does wonders for stock prices but it no longer works for the economy that sustains them. For every dollar that the Fed has put to work to fight the crisis since 2008, for example, it has produced only 80 cents worth of GDP. It didnt work……that the recession of 08-09 in the US never actually ended……and that stocks will go down over the next 5-10 years until they finally hit a real bottom…’  Ted Weisberg to Frank Motek 1070am could think of no reason for the market to be up (BAD NEWS: new home sales down, oil prices up - China's manufacturing index showed a decline, the seventh straight month of declines for German manufacturing and the first decline in two years for European manufacturing activity, in u.s. a big miss on new home sales and a decline in the Richmond Fed's manufacturing index.) with some prodding ultimately a begrudging mention of that meaningless fudge term oversold which of course is no reason at all particularly since the market is substantially overvalued so take this as an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits because theres much worse to come! ,  Fed Economists Predict A 15 Year Bear Market For Stocks Aug 23rd, 2011 News (BusinessInsider) The San Francisco Fed has come out with a research paper connecting the dots between the retiring baby boomers and stock prices. The thinking is that the boomers will divest themselves of stocks as they retire and eat into their savings.These conclusions are just horrendous! The suggestion is that there is a 15-year bear market in front of us. Multiples will fall by 50%!!…“We do see it as something of a headwind as the economy is attempting to recover. These deep thinkers have it completely wrong. They think that the key to having a stronger economy is higher stock prices. So they spend all of their efforts dreaming up ways to keep the S&P ramping up. I think it is the exact other way around. If the economy were to be growing [ you see, thats the problem in large part the economy wont really be growing (huge price increases / inflation for the illusion), among a multitude of other problems ], it is reasonable to assume that stock prices might rise. It is completely false to assume that attempts to jigger stocks higher will lead to a stronger economy [ This is true, but the writer ignores the criminal fraud factor as the raison detre for the jiggering. ]  ,  Dow:Gold Ratio and the Secular Bear Market Minyanville  Toby Connor Stocks.. after.. bear market rally, will roll over and continue down into a final four-year cycle low..Depending on whether or not the Fed tries to fight the cleansing process, or Ben Bernanke tries to stop the bear market with another round of quantitative easing, stocks should either test or breach the March '09 lows. Either way I expect that 2012 will go down as one of the worst years in human history. Certainly in the same category as 1932, if not worse …’  ,  american technology is horrendous and vastly overrated! ,  Famed economist predicts economic calamity in 2012. See the evidence.Newsmax  http://w3.newsmax.com/a/aftershockb/video.cfm?promo_code=CA79-1      50% unemployment, 90% stock market drop, 100% inflation. See the Evidence (Newsmax.com  ,   Accounting Gimmics Resurface as Growth Flounders at TheStreet Rebekah Smith, director of financial advisory services at accounting and consulting firm GBQ consulting, says accounting tricks and schemes are likely to start unraveling as we head into 2012 and the lag effect catches up. "The typical accounting fraud goes on for about 18 to 26 months before it is uncovered. The frauds that took place in 2009 are not going to surface until later in 2011 or into 2012."   ,  Morgan Stanley Biggest Welfare Recipient as Federal Reserve Lent Banks $1.2 Trillion During Financial Crisis Wall St. Cheat Sheet  ,    Social Security disability on verge of insolvency     ,  Welcome To The New Bear Market For Stocks  Forbes / Suttmeier ,  Dow/Gold Ratio Lowest Since 1987 Crash   Forbes /  Adrian Ash  ,   Ignore Buffett's Advice, Don't Buy Stocks Forbes /  Dohmen , The "Crimes" That Wrecked The Markets  Forbes / Lenzner  ,  Tech Leading Market Lower The Wall Street Journal  ,  Banks closed in Fla, Ga, Ill; 2011 total is 68   ,   No Recession Coming ... It's Already Here   Minyanville's T3 Daily Recap: Market Gives Back Weekend Gains Amid US Bank Woes at Minyanville  ,Previous:8-18-11 Stocks rally off lows to suck suckers in and keep suckers sucked in on bad news (Jobless Claims, Inflation Rise More Than Expected CNBC) , fraud ( SEC destroyed documents, senator says    Crimes Wrecked The Markets    ), and b***s*** alone!  MKM Bracing For SPY To Drop 8% More; Nasdaq Nearing August Lows Barrons.com,  WHY NEW LOWS ARE LIKELY  Maierhofer, Is It 2008 Again? Looking at the Summer Crash of 2011 Gayed A real bear market has begun …’ ,  Abandon Ship?[The USS Titanic] Yes, Because of These 5 Bearish Icebergs ... McGill ,  There's A Recession Coming According To The Data at Forbes  ,  HP, Dell hammered as tech-spending outlook darkens   JDSU, NetApp, disappointing figures, shares hit hard in after-hours trade   Dell braces investors for a bumpy road Dell makes a case on why it can better weather an upcoming storm  ,   S&P says sell Google's shares after Motorola deal  ,  STOCKS FALL AFTER FLOOD OF BAD NEWS: Here's What You Need To Know  Joe Weisenthal ,   Stocks Slip On Concern Over Europe's Debt, U.S. Data  ,  Watch Out: 2011 Looks A Lot Like The Market Top In 2007 Sean Hanlon Take A Lesson From 2007 And Sell Stocks Now at Forbes, [video] Trader: We Could Test 1120 Lows at TheStreet.com   In a Downtrend, Sell a Rally (Daily FX)     Latest: Economist Who Predicted Market Crash Warns of 2012 Aftershock. See More Here.    )   Five Reason Stocks Are Crashing, Tips to Prepare for Meltdown (Moneynews) Unthinkable Poised to Happen on Wall Street. See Disturbing Charts. (Newsmax.com)  US Recession Is Guaranteed: Expert CNBC.com  So whats changed of significance (other than previous full moon and consequent effects on the lunatic wall street frauds) Nothing! Absolutely nothing, yet a manipulated computer-programmed ( high frequency trading bots ) churn-and-earn suckers rally based on desperation, fraud and b***s*** alone (ie., backward looking, revisions, faked data, etc.) to keep suckers suckered, which makes for an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits since theres much, much worse to come!     Regulators close 64th U.S. bank this year , U.S. consumer sentiment grim but retail sales jump with gasoline prices up  ,  [$$] 'Junk' Bonds Point to Recession  , Stock Market Parallels to 2000 and 2008 Should Not Be Ignored   , How Low Will Stocks Go?   Michael Kahn, who writes the Getting Technical column for Barrons.com and the QuickTakes Pro blog, has long argued were in a secular (long-term) bear market, and he thinks the cyclical bull is over, too. Like Arbeter, he sees 1,010 to 1,050 as the next level of support for the S&P, and below that 930.  50% unemployment & 90% Dow crash also predicted. Newsmax   Tech up? Is this some kind of a joke? Absolute confirmation of dire prospects worldwide since american tech is horrendous.  (Newsmax.com) Robert Wiedemers new book, Aftershock: Protect Yourself and Profit in the Next Global Financial Meltdown, quickly is becoming the survival guide for the 21st century. And Newsmaxs eye-opening Aftershock Survival Summit video, with exclusive interviews and prophetic predictions, already has affected millions around the world but not without ruffling a few feathers.    [ The instant  video on the economic / financial collapse from Stansberry and Associates is so well researched  and succinctly presented  that Ive archived same on my website; also, because the facts and views presented comport with the facts and views Ive presented on my site which I believe to be correct. This is a must-view, must-see that I strongly recommend!    
The complete url:     http://www.albertpeia.com/stansberrysinvestmentadvisory.flv   http://www.albertpeia.com/stansberrysinvestmentadvisory.mp4    Written text of presentation (without pictures  / charts)]  [A lot of pre-election year obfuscation, manipulation but the debacle is already here:  Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
Dow will Fall to 3,800
4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the latest.
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40
60% from Todays Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010 and 2012).
   Dow 1000? Robert Prechter Thinks So      Prechter Reiterrates Call For Dow 1,000, Even As Surging Gold And Plunging Dollar Leave Much Credibility To Be Desired        Bulls Go to Extremes: Don't Buy the "Breakout", Sell It, Prechter Says     Russell: This Is One Of The Largest Tops In Stock Market History  My old friend, Bob Prechter, is talking about Dow 400. I used to think this was an absurd joke. I no longer think its a joke. The ultimate result will be a primary bear market shocking in duration and extent. …’     Forecasts from Dent, Napier, and then Prechter: Depression is Imminent The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to below 777 which was the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and quite likely drop below 400 at one or more times during the bear market.  [ 8 More Reasons Why You Should Be Deeply Concerned That The U.S. Government Has Lost Its AAA Credit Rating The Economic Collapse ‘…  #8 The U.S. national debt continues to get worse by the day.  Just check out what economics professor Laurence J. Kotlikoff recently told NPR.If you add up all the promises that have been made for spending obligations, including defense expenditures, and you subtract all the taxes that we expect to collect, the difference is $211 trillion. Thats the fiscal gap ..   Why You Shouldn't Buy Into This Plunge Forbes/O'NeilThe market is building momentum to the downside.]    Russell Napier is the author of the book Anatomy of the Bear, a professor at the Edinburgh Business School and a consultant to CLSA Ltd. which is one of the top research houses in Asia. Napiers research indicates (and I paraphrase) that: The S&P 500 will Decline to 400 by 2014 (the Dow 30 to 3800) The S&P 500 will then undergo a major crash that will see U.S. equity prices bottom at almost 50% below current levels (i.e. to 400 or less; the Dow 30 to 3800 or less) sometime around 2014 as Tobins q drops to 0.3 signaling the end of the bear market, as it has done at the end of the four largest U.S. market declines in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982. U.S. Treasury Sales Collapse Leading to End of U.S. Dollar as Reserve Currency Robert R. Prechter Jr. is author of a number of newsletters and books including Elliott Wave Principle (1978) in which he predicted the super bull market of the 1980s; At the Crest of the Tidal Wave A Forecast of the Great Bear Market (1995) in which he predicted a slow motion economic earthquake, brought about by a great asset mania, that would register 11 on the financial Richter scale causing a collapse of historic proportions; and Conquer the Crash: You can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression (2002) in which he described the economic cataclysm that we are just beginning to experience and advised how to position ones self financially during that period of time. Depression is Imminent The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to below 777 which was the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and quite likely drop below 400 at one or more times during the bear market.    Watch for fake govt data / reports owing to political desperation!  This an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits, particularly if you missed Tuesday or May, since theres much, much worse to come! Thursday, Aug.11, 2011: what changed from yesterday which warranted a more than 500 point plunge with paper stocks still over-valued? Well, some bad news labeled as better than expected 1) 7,000 fewer jobless claims than expected (just a little over 1% better even if you believe them I dont) 2) Cisco shows results better than expected 3) Record monthly trade deficit  [ What Recovery? Forbes we cant call this a recovery. Theres no reason to celebrate when a job report was better than expected. Why? Because the expectation was abysmal to begin with. Cisco Systems Incs quarterly results edged past Wall Streets scaled-back expectations ...They beat a low bar. A lot of it is coming from cost cutting, which we anticipated. In that sense its a relief, Joanna Makris of Mizuho Securities USA told Reuters. Cisco, which depends on government spending for about a fifth of its revenue, said in July it would cut 15 percent of its workforce and sell a set-top box factory in Mexico.. Cisco bulls may underestimate tough road ahead Randewich. ] Tuesday, Aug.9,2011: what changed from yesterday which warranted a more than 600 point plunge with paper stocks still over-valued and a 545 bounce off of afternoon lows? Nothing! Absolutely nothing, yet a manipulated computer-programmed churn-and-earn suckers rally based on fraud and b***s*** alone to keep suckers suckered, which makes for AN ESPECIALLY GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL / TAKE PROFITS SINCE THERES MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!  [ Is this some parallel universe where unfounded criticism is levied at S&P for the downgrade when theyve actually cut the pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt disunited states a break by not rating what america truly is; viz., junk status for the paper / liabilities / obligations that cannot and will not be paid (or the equivalent vis-à-vis what would be in worse than evermore worthless Weimar dollars or some other ponzi-like subterfuge, obfuscation). The amounts are insurmountable going forward. They point to Moodys and Fitch; yet, lets not kid ourselves, S&P is the 800 pound gorilla in this world among rating agencies and moodys, fitch have substantially diminished themselves as entities consistent with their mission and purpose and as well, their credibility. I mean, come on! Consider the pressure that was and continues to be applied. Moodys and fitch, quite frankly, folded. Chinas rating agency has already downgraded u.s. paper and theyre holding (huge amounts of that u.s. junk); and hence, against their own interest. Wake up! Wall Street closes worst week since '08 with wild day NEW YORK (Reuters) S&P on U.S. downgrade: Debt pact 'falls short' - Reuters  S&P downgrades US credit rating from AAA   S&P Shocks the U.S. with Credit Downgrade to AA+ from Prestigious AAA Rating  Wall St. Cheat Sheet    What Recovery? Forbes   ‘…we cant call this a recovery. Theres no reason to celebrate when a job report was better than expected. Why? Because the expectation was abysmal to begin with. And while were at it, we cant ignore increasing sovereign debt problems in Europe…’  Top 3 Reasons Markets Erased the Years Gains Wall St. Cheat Sheet  1) Japan and Europe 2) Unemployment.3) Capital goods - billions of dollars in lost revenue. Financial Crisis Phase II Is Ahead at Forbes Bert Dohmen  In late 2007, I wrote the book Prelude To Meltdown, predicting the global crisis that occurred the following year.  I now see a similar confluence of events that warns of phase II of the global crisis My work shows that the new recession has started.”… Over the past 33 years, we have called the start of every recession, often on the exact month, or within one month, of the official start as determined one year later by the official arbiter of recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) However, inflation is far understated for political reasons. Currently, the GDP deflator is 1.8%, which hardly reflects the true rise in prices. Therefore, what is counted as growth, is actually price increases. Actual inflation, according to free market economists who calculate inflation as it was done in 1980 before the politician re-engineered it, is now more than 11%. Using that to adjust GDP for inflation, would show that the economy is now in a very sharp contraction…’FLASHBACK HERE: Selling In May Is Very Good Advice This Year  Harding   Remember: Sell in May and Go Away and If Youve Not Sold by June, Youre a Loon! Albert Edwards: Thinks the Market Could Fall 70% [ Hes not alone!   PRECHTER: We're Still In A Massive Bear Market And Stocks Will Crash To New Lows     Stock Market: 4 Current Warning Signs  Navin ‘…1) The 5-year high in the level of insider corporate stock sales is telling. At 565 sells for every 1 buy, its never been higher. Yes, its normal for insiders to be selling some of their stocks so they can buy new yachts and some of this is pre-planned. But that ratio which has spiked recently is extraordinarily high, one might even say off-the-chart  previous‘…1) Job cuts. 2 ) ISM service-sector report. Mondays ISM manufacturing report contributed to market losses on Monday, but todays report, though equally negative, didnt quite have the same effect as markets began to level out this afternoon. The ISM service-sector index declined to 52.7% in July. The U.S. service sector accounts for three-fourths of all economic activity, and employs four out of every five U.S. workers , so a 0.5% decline speaks volumes about the state of economic recovery…’  Factory orders for June fell by 0.8% (just because they say the bad news isnt as bad as expected does not make such bad news rally material. Indeed, the huge ralleys based on now revised downward data never seem to retrace that fake data induced stock surge based thereon.    Service sector growth slowest since 2010    Moody's sets negative outlook on BNY, JPMorgan         S&P ends string of losses on tech rebound  Tech rebound? Is this some kind of a joke? Tech up today? Absolute confirmation of dire prospects worldwide since american tech is horrendous. Yet, sizzling childs play is the order of the day and credit still must be given to those [ie., Steve Jobs-Im truly glad he saved Apple, my first computer (apple IIc for word processing / data based records / forms / templates / data which I interfaced with an electric typewriter for letter quality)] who could (as he) identify such novelties as the biggest over-priced / over-valued sensations since the hoola hoop (hoopla hoops - which were pretty cheap and with some minor health benefits to boot).Take this run-up as a gift based on fraudulent wall street b***s*** alone and take this opportunity to sell / take profits / sell today if you missed in may and then go away! Nothing has been solved; maybe forestalled.  Rout spells trouble for Wall Street  / Moody's confirms U.S. rating at Aaa, outlook negative / Chinese rating agency cuts U.S. debt again / Minyanville's T3 Daily Recap: Signed Debt Deal No Cure for Sickly Market  / US auto industry uneasy after weak July sales / Fitch Unimpressed By Debt Deal, GDP; Markets Unimpressed By Fitch / US debt deal alone won't sustain AAA rating / Stocks now down for year as economic concerns grow AP    The Daily Market Report Aug 1st, 2011  PG  Relief? What Relief? http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum Late last night when party leaders and the President announced that they had reached a bipartisan deal that would allow the debt ceiling to be raised, gold dropped about 1%. Global stocks rallied in relief and briefly, ever so briefly, gold was out of favorCBO scores the package as accomplishing $2.1 trillion in spending cuts over the next 10-years, the CBO baseline also has the deficit rising $6.7 trillion over the same period. The premise apparently being that were working our way to actual cutting by cutting to slow the pace of the nations proliferate spending. In actuality and as evidenced below that CBO baseline may prove to be way too optimistic. What really lit an intraday fire under gold today was the big miss on US July ISM, which plunged to 50.9. The market was expecting a modest downtick to 55.0 from 55.3 in June The Truth About The Debt Deal: Its Pretty Much Meaningless Business Insider/ Come on! Who believes their pre-election year data, reports, b***s***? Theres desperation in the air and like never before! One commentator, Peter Shiff, to Frank Motek of 1070am Bus.Report references the sham in Washington; and regardless, points to default by way of inflation, further stating that the debt ceilings already been breached by borrowing. Moreover, he additionally states that default is inevitable by way of inflation; that the fed will be buying the evermore worthless american paper (bonds) and creating/printing evermore worthless american dollars; that theres been a quid pro quo with at least one of the 3 (S&P, Moodys, Fitch) federal licensed rating agencies, viz., of reaffirming the u.s. AAA rating in return for no prosecution surrounding their role in the S&P AAA rated worthless (fraudulent, mortgage-backed, derivative) paper securities (fraud) giving rise to the previous leg of this continuing, ongoing debacle / crisis. He finally goes on to recommend non-u.s., non-dollar denominated assets, precious metals, and alternate currencies. Initial unemployment claims rise to 418000 - Jul. 21, 2011 which bad news sparked wall street rally what total b***s***. No budget deal, celebrated Greek Plan DEFAULT! sounds like a plan!, backward looking earnings results riiiiight! Watch Out: 2011 Looks A Lot Like The Market Top In 2007 at Forbes  Sean Hanlon  / Deficits And Stimulus Only Delay The Inevitable Collapse Bob Chapman | America is insolvent and has been so for a long time. US Is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece: Gross When adding in all of the money owed to cover future liabilities in entitlement programs the US is actually in worse financial shape than Greece and other debt-laden European countries, Pimcos Bill Gross told CNBC Monday.  Maierhofer: USA INCOME STATEMENT:Total federal spending in 2010 amounted to $3.456 trillion. Total receipts added up to $2.162 trillion. USA Inc.'s 2010 deficit was $1.294 trillion.The 2011 federal budget is $3.7 trillion with a projected deficit of$1.6 trillion. USA BALANCE SHEET: Consensus estimates for unfunded obligations vary. Mary Meeker pegs the shortfall at $31 trillion, PIMCO's Bill Gross estimates the unreported debt to be $75 trillion, while other estimates exceed $100 trillion (these amounts are insurmountable) …’ Huge suckers rally to keep the suckers suckered in this market based upon backward looking data discounted multiple times to the upside (including the apple numbers as recently as last week on leaked expectations of better than expected, etc.), taxpayer funded QE results, and b***s*** alone. This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits since theres much, much worse to come!   IT'S GOING TO HURT 'FOR LONG TIME TO COME' [ Says tiny tim geithner thanks for the heads up tiny tim  God bless us everyone!  As if we didnt already know it / feel it! Dave's Daily  'If you can keep interest rates this low this long, its inevitable cheap financing can allow companies to start cobbling each other up. Further Ben's policies allow companies like IBM to sell bonds at 1% and buy back shares with the proceeds (total paper bubble-scam). POMO is occurring almost daily and Primary Dealers can buy back their shares and pay dividends with what essentially is taxpayer money-- Why The Dow Will Plunge To 7,000 By 24/7 Wall St.    S&P Poised For Dropoff, Says Initial Jobless Claims  Forbes / Maureen Farrell  ]




A Decade of Decline in Equity Markets Faisal Humayun [ This is a must read and explains how the market’s been artificially propped, the dow relative to hard assets, ie., gold (dow/gold ratio), has actually crashed 78%, and comparable prospects for the next decade, etc.. ‘…The Dow Jones Index was trading at 11,357 levels at the beginning of the year 2000. More than a decade later (as of beginning July 2011), the index is at 12582. Therefore, the index has gained 11% in the last ten years…’ Yet, the inflationary dollar (declining) debasement rate was 31%. (-31%) {See the inflation calculator infra – and that’s just the government (inflation) numbers … reality is much worse!} Meanwhile, the frauds on wall street are churnin’ and earnin’ like never before at lightning computerized speeds enabling the high-frequency trades that are commissioned in unprecedented large volumes; a big net negative in real economic terms.]  While Washington Fiddled The Economy Burned at Forbes [ Oh come on! Let’s get real here! The economy was already burning (see infra), Washington notwithstanding! Indeed, the frauds on wall street with those contraindicated paper stock computer programmed commissioned churn-and-earn rallies would love for you to think it’s Washington only {that aw shucks, coulda’ been clear sailin’ otherwise moment; but the reality is that things are far more dire financially and economically than their window-dressed scams would indicate, though washington’s no help, incompetent, unknowledgeable, and ineffectual as they are (although fraudulent wall street, aside from their consummate scammin’, is little better and probably overly relied upon and light in those very areas one would expect to find profiency; viz., finance and economics.) Most importantly, realize that if wobama’s actions had not belied his words/campaign promises, the nation’s position, though still ominous, would have been substantially improved.}  ] Check out this inflation calculator:   http://www.albertpeia.com/inflationcalculator.htm

 

 

Here’s a picture of obama voters / backers: http://www.albertpeia.com/wobamavoters.gif

 

 

Beneath the Market’s Swings, Some Real Cause for Worry  News  Jeff Cox August 11 (CNBC) — ‘So whether this equals, falls short of, or exceeds the financial crisis of 2008 hardly seems to matter—investors are afraid, very afraid, and the question as much as anything in the minds of many market pros will be what soothes that fear. Analyst Dick Bove at Rochdale Securities says he knows why: More restrictive capital requirements and near-zero interest rates set at the Federal Reserve [cnbc explains] that make lending neither easy nor lucrative, a trend that will make it difficult for the economy to grow. “If one thinks through these limitations it can be seen that banks must shrink their balance sheets and change their business patterns to maintain their profits. What they are unlikely to do is to expand their lending activities in order to grow the economy,” Bove wrote in a lengthy banking analysis Thursday.“However, the Federal Reserve is suggesting that the economy is unlikely to grow,” he wrote. “If the Fed is prescient, then banks are facing higher loan losses, lower loan volume, and reduced margins on a wide array of banking products. The outlook is not appealing.”“Even though the United States is able to both print and borrow money, it is as bankrupt as the Europeans,” Bove wrote. “Covering deficits and paying debt with borrowed funds, some of which is newly printed, does not constitute meeting debt service requirements.”…’

 

 


The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed
! Previous, full moon and fraudulent wall street, get this, rallies on not as bad as expected EU stress tests and better than expected google results but forget the dire consumer (recession level) consumer sentiment number ‘cause after all, consumer spending just a paltry 70% of GDP.  Think about this: short-lived Pavlov dog rally (the conditioned stimulus) on hopes for more welfare for wall street and some good results in communist China. This despite the previous failure of QE for everyone but the frauds on wall street and ultimately, though circumlocuted, at great taxpayer expense. Titans of capitalism? How ‘bout the biggest unprosecuted frauds in the world. Preposterous!  Roche 'The worst part of it  ...Obama, who vowed change, has done almost nothing to fix any of it and in fact continues most of the policies that helped get us here in the first place’  ‘INSIDE JOB’ Ferguson wins Oscar for Documentary on the unprosecuted massive extant fraud in the (many) TRILLIONS by the frauds on wall street ( and declares with oscar in hand that not one high level wall street exec has been prosecuted … despite ‘earning’ billions from the fraud )   I want just one person with courage enough to stand up and explain to all that these huge commissionable computerized trading volumes like never before are a net negative in a very big way … that’s a fact … that’s economic reality in real terms!   Trade deficit up, growth predictions by fed scaled down [ do you recall how many upside market points for the false, more positive growth projections by the ‘no-recession’ fed, then there’s also the costly, hyperinflationary failed QE hopes, more fed jawboning rallies the frauds on wall street off their lows to keep suckers suckered – they all belong in jail!   Housing Woes to Cause Recession in 2012, Says Gary Shilling - Peter Gorenstein  STOCKS BARELY FALL AFTER MOUNTAIN OF BAD NEWS: Here's What You Need To Know Business Insider Weisenthal Economic scenario far worse than expected (and in this pre-election year the reality is still far worse than reported), yet stocks still rallied off lows to keep suckers sucked in to this fraudulent market    Click here to see the new scariest jobs chart ever  http://www.businessinsider.com/details-from-the-awful-june-june-jobs-report-2011-7    >  See all 12 charts from St Louis Fed:  http://static8.businessinsider.com/image/4e1712edcadcbba25f030000-595-356/chart.jpg    Previous:Stocks rally on jersey-based, former Lautenberg ADP still paltry, better than expected 157,000 private jobs number and one’s got to wonder ‘who got paid’, one way or another, for the fudge. Then there’s the horrific ‘american tech’. Retail? The defacto bankrupt government’s probably buying with money they don’t have, at best; and, as with other data in these desperate pre-election-year times, plain false, falsified, fudged, spun. Previous day, all bad news … from eurozone (protugal, et als), to asia zone (china worse than expected), to america (where to begin, from defacto bankruptcy, to debased currency, to insurmountable debt / dervice, to pervasive corruption, etc.) … stocks rally on fraud and b***s*** alone. Previous, higher oil price rally, along with Netflix ‘technology rally’ … Don’t make me laugh! … Total desperation on wall street and in Washington … How pathetic! … Jobless claims at 428,000 much worse than expected; and, don’t forget, these are desperate ‘pre-election times’ when regardless of factual reality (ie., fake reports, data, as, ie., ‘wobama hometown’ corrupt chicago ISM is up as even their youth gangs are showing increased criminal activity which probably accounts for the rise; ie., meth, crack labs, etc.?) data / reports are fudged / faked / spun. Foreclosure, distressed sales up, at least on paper with contracts signed, so no surprise nor reason to cheer here, as markets worldwide jump on the american crazy train for a short-lived bounce as all problems remain. This is the same month end (and quarter, half) spurt / window dressing based on b***s*** alone to keep the suckers suckered and an especially great time to sell / take profits since there’s much worse to come! Talk about milking the greek crisis for the umpteenth time a so-called solution (and there are loads of greecy scenarios worldwide …  I don’t think so and neither does Schaeffer who says: ‘…even once such a package is passed it only buys time. Actually fixing the fiscal condition of Greece is not something that can be solved in a matter of weeks, or even months…‘ but it’s great press for the churn and earn and to keep the suckers suckered.  Technology rally? Defacto bankrupt american technology is horrendous but great sizzle for the new fraud as in the dotcom bust days. Then there’s the greasy b.s. new greecy b.s. factor. The rally into the close and the previous so-called (4 day) ‘rally’ was based on b***s*** alone to keep the suckers suckered and for ‘smarter money ‘ along with the frauds to sell into. This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come!    Selling In May Is Very Good Advice This Year  Harding   Remember: Sell in May and Go Away and If You’ve Not Sold by June, You’re a Loon! ‘ ‘Albert Edwards: Thinks the Market Could Fall 70%’ [ He’s not alone!   PRECHTER: We're Still In A Massive Bear Market And Stocks Will Crash To New Lows     Stock Market: 4 Current Warning Signs  Navin ‘…1) The 5-year high in the level of insider corporate stock sales is telling. At 565 sells for every 1 buy, it’s never been higher. Yes, it’s normal for insiders to be selling some of their stocks so they can buy new yachts and some of this is pre-planned. But that ratio — which has spiked recently — is extraordinarily high, one might even say off-the-chart.       Wall Street 'Vastly Underestimating' Risk of Debt Default  Forbes / Robert Lenzner   StreetTalk ‘ “Meet the Press” climaxed Sunday  with a startling market prognostication from David Brooks, conservative columnist for the NY Times. The risk of a debt default over the combustible issue of the Medicare deficit hangs over the course of the stock market. Buyers Beware!“I was up in Wall Street  this week,” Brooks said. “They’re vastly underestimating the source of piolitical risk here. We could have a major problem, I think, either this summer or the next couple years. And I’d be worried about investing too much in the market. That’s my financial advice.”…’   Another Financial Crisis Is On The Way, Mobius Says      Market Crash 6/30/11?Technical indicators suggest market collapse may begin by June 30th Dennis Slothower is one of the world’s leading technical analysts. He’s one of the few advisors whose readers completely avoided ALL losses during the disaster that was 2008. And now he’s issuing another dire warning. His technical indicators suggest that the market manipulation we’ve seen over the last several months is about to come to an end…and that means thousands of investors are about to get clobbered. This correction could begin as soon as June 30th– so it’s important that you take action now to prepare yourself. StealthStocksOnline.com        STOCKS HAVE BIG RALLY AFTER PILES OF UGLY NEWS: Here's What You need To Know    Harry Dent: “Major Crash” Coming for Stocks, Commodities Already Topping Out           24 Signs Of Economic Decline In America ‘The US is in the middle of a devastating long-term economic decline..’ ]  States face shortfall for retirees (WP)   Public workers’ retirement funds had a gap of $1.26 trillion at the end of fiscal 2009    Study: Affordable rentals scarce  (WP)      Poll: For Obama, low marks on Afghan war (WP)  Fuel prices cut into Obama popularity  (WP) They’ve used the contrived mideast turmoil and their wars to obfuscate and divert attention from their failure.    Davis ‘This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘  Dave's Daily  'If you can keep interest rates this low this long, its inevitable cheap financing can allow companies to start cobbling each other up. Further Ben's policies allow companies like IBM to sell bonds at 1% and buy back shares with the proceeds (total paper bubble-scam). POMO is occurring almost daily and Primary Dealers can buy back their shares and pay dividends with what essentially is taxpayer money-- Why The Dow Will Plunge To 7,000 By 24/7 Wall St.   S&P Poised For Dropoff, Says Initial Jobless Claims  Forbes / Maureen Farrell   

 

 

 

Take A Lesson From 2007 And Sell Stocks Now at Forbes, Sean Hanlon August has given new meaning to the dog days of summer as the broad equity market has retracted all year-to-date gains and dropped into negative territory, all within the first couple weeks.

As written in my previous Market Commentary on July 20, our research uncovered potentially dangerous activity in the equity markets that could lead to a break and high volatility.  We presented this in that Market Commentary by the chart in Figure 1 below.  Using our proprietary research methodologies, we elected to make a major tactical move on June 17.

That move reduced all equity and high-yield bond exposure, creating 50% cash or cash equivalent allocations across all portfolios. This defensive move was shown to be prudent as volatility erupted and considerable downside was experienced in equity markets in the first week of August, as shown in Figure 2.

Figure 1 (click image to enlarge.)

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/advisor/files/2011/08/11.jpg

With this heightened volatility, we were observant that this market behavior was eerily similar to market conditions in 2007. To elaborate on this point, lets compare the S&P 500 Index for 2007 vs. the first seven months of 2011.  As you can see below in Figure 2, 2007 experienced high volatility yet remained range-bound in an upward trend (represented by the overlaid black bands).

Figure 2 (click image to enlarge.)

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/advisor/files/2011/08/2.jpg

 

The first half of 2011 maintained a range-bound upward trend until finally breaking sharply to the downside in the first week of August.

Of course now everyone wants to know what happens next?  Our research has no special predictive power of what may happen now that the trend has been broken. Instead, what our research is telling us is to remain extremely cautious at this time.  We have since moved client portfolios to almost 100% money markets and/or cash equivalents in all accounts.  We do maintain some high quality bond positions.

You may think But I cant make any money in money markets, they pay nothing these days!  True enough, but there are many times in ones investing lifetime where the best investment is to simply maintain principal.  That principal amount will be able to potentially purchase more in the not too distant future.

A simple example is stocks.  On April 29 of this year, $1,340 purchased the equivalent of one S&P 500 Index share.  Today, to own those same companies that make up the S&P 500 Index, the cost is below $1,200, yet the same amount of dividends is being received.  In this period preserving principal has resulted in increased investment purchasing power, income and potentially increased return.

 

Related article: Watch Out: 2011 Looks A Lot Like The Market Top In 2007

 

 

 

[video] Trader: We Could Test 1120 Lows at TheStreet.com

 

 

There's A Recession Coming According To The Data at Forbes  The stock market peaked in April, and is behaving in the saame fashion it did in late 2007, when big troubles from real estate writedowns were spreading through the financial sector.

The most worrisome statistic this week was the Empire State Manufacturing indedx wehich was down from a minus 3.76 to a minus 7.7 a leading indicator of recession in the past. The new industrial orders index from New York remained well below zero at minus 7.8.

The Federal Reserve Board has promised to keep interest rates at zero until 2013 an admission that the economy is not expected to rebound for two years until the next President is in the White House. This policy step indicates the Fed does not believe the economy will recover either this year or next year. Never before has the centreal bank made such a policy declaration for as long a period as two years.

There were 1300 new lows in the market on August 8th another phenomenon that hasd not taken place since the great stagnation was triggered in 2008. Even though the market indexes made up all their lost ground, it appewars that investors are willing to delude themselves that  corporate profits will reemain at very high levels despite the period of austerity we are clearly entering.

The austerity required in Europe to deal with the sovereign debt crisis is likely to push Europe into a recession. This will impact US corporations dependent on important profits from Europe.

The corporate return on revenues has risen the past two years to a peak of 14% an unusually high level of profits that is not expected to continue.

Consumer savings are rising as household debt gets paid back. But, we are a long way from safety levels of savings in a high unemployment period. And the higherb the saavings rise so the lower the level of consumption will be.

Housing numbers were down 1.5% last month underscoring that the turnaround in housing is not close at hand.

 

 

Market's Swoon Should Be Your Wake Up Call

 

 

Watch Out: 2011 Looks A Lot Like The Market Top In 2007 Sean Hanlon:   Back on December 12, 2007 I wrote a market commentary that started as follows:

The equity markets have been very volatile this year, but also range bound.  A picture speaks a thousand words so all one needs to do is view the chart below of the S&P 500 Index to understand just how volatile and range bound things have been.  Specifically, since February 20, 2007, only nine and one half months or so ago, the S&P 500 Index has been down 5.86%, up 13.02%, down 9.43%, up 11.26%, down 10.09%, and now up 7.73% through 12/10/07 so far in this latest up leg!  All this in ONLY nine and one half months!

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/advisor/files/2011/07/market-commentary-1.jpg

History is repeating itself so far in 2011, which has been fraught with ups and downs in both international and domestic equity markets.  This is due to many things, including the considerable economic doubts and various countries debt situations. This uncertainty has translated into market performance with direct impacts on portfolio returns and more prominently in portfolio volatility. This volatility is best seen in the chart below of the S&P 500 Index beginning 1/1/11.

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/advisor/files/2011/07/market-commentary-2.jpg

2010 ended positivity and the momentum carried into the first two months of 2011 however the end of February began a series of events that led market returns on a whipsaw ride of ups and downs, resulting in the current universal mid-year views of market uncertainty.

What news was associated with this volatility? All the usual; crude oil prices, natural disasters, corporate earnings, politics, economic forecast revisions for both developed and emerging markets, the European debt situation, the United States debt situation and more to name just a few.

One thing is for certain; the current volatile, range bound market activity is difficult at best to profit from.  In this investing environment patience is the most important attribute.  I will be patient and will be careful until the trends are preferable.

Our strategy at Hanlon Investment Management is to attempt to minimize downside risk by exiting risk asset classes, such as equities, during periods of uncertainty, getting invested in more conservative asset classes, such as money markets and short-term bonds, and re-entering into risky asset classes when we identify them as attractive, when the trend is our friend and positive!

Having identified this volatility, in June we made defensive, tactical investment decisions that provide less exposure to these volatile, range bound markets and prepare us to re-enter the markets when they possess improved risk characteristics.

 

 

 

SEC may have destroyed documents, senator says 17 Aug 2011 The Securities and Exchange Commission may have destroyed documents and compromised enforcement case ...   Grassley: Agency may have got rid of Goldman, Madoff documents   Ronald D. Orol, MarketWatch WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) The Securities and Exchange Commission may have destroyed documents and compromised enforcement cases involving activity at large banks and hedge funds during the height of the financial crisis in 2008, according to allegations made by a lawmaker on Wednesday. From what Ive seen, it looks as if the SEC might have sanctioned some level of case-related document destruction, said Sen. Chuck Grassley, Republican of Iowa, in a letter to the agencys chairman, Mary Schapiro. Sen. Chuck Grassley  It doesnt make sense that an agency responsible for investigations would want to get rid of potential evidence. If these charges are true, the agency needs to explain why it destroyed documents, how many documents it destroyed over what timeframe, and to what extent its actions were consistent with the law. Agency staff destroyed over 9,000 files related to preliminary agency investigations, according to a letter sent in July to Grassley, the top Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee, and obtained by MarketWatch. The allegations were made by SEC enforcement attorney, Darcy Flynn, in a letter to Grassley. Flynn is a current employee, and according to the letter, received a bonus for his past years work. Flynn alleges the SEC destroyed files related to matters being examined in important cases such as Bernard Madoff and a $50 billion Ponzi scheme he operated as well as an investigation involving Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS +0.33%   trading in American International Group credit-default swaps in 2009. Flynn also alleged that the agency destroyed documents and information collected for preliminary investigations at Wells Fargo & Co. WFC +1.34% , Bank of America Corp. BAC +0.81% , Citigroup C +0.13%  , Credit Suisse CS +0.38%  , Deutsche Bank DB +0.79%  Morgan Stanley MS -0.06%  and the now-bankrupt Lehman Brothers. The letter goes into particular detail about Deutsche Bank, the former employer of current SEC enforcement chief Robert Khuzami as well as former enforcement chiefs Gary Lynch and Richard Walker…’

Sen. Chuck Grassley  It doesnt make sense that an agency responsible for investigations would want to get rid of potential evidence…’ [ Oh but it does make sense Sen. Grassley:   Report: SEC lawyer exposed FBI informant (WP) [ Clearly, the sec liar (sic lawyer) is one of those typically with a pre or post arrangement, whether implicit or explicit; you know, that ubiquitous bribe thing in pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt, fallen  america. Indeed, the scenario typifies that national drain / sinkhole new york (new york / new jersey metro) where, for example, FBI informants were routinely exposed by italians in the new york d.a.s office over the objection of the FBI, and were promptly dispatched/assassinated / hit by mafia / organized crime [ this was documented with authority in the book Goombata: The Improbable Rise and Fall of John Gotti and His Gang Cummings / Volkman  ]

 

 

TRAIN READING: COVER-UP  Mark Gongloff

Is the SEC covering up Wall Street crimes?
Matt Taibbi

The forex market is causing some companies to pull up stakes Heard on the Street

Resisting the urge to buy the dips Josh Brown

Maybe its not stocks that are cheap, but earnings estimates that are high Ritholtz

What happens after a Greek default? Fortune

Stop blaming Greece for the markets problems Mark Hulbert

Frau Merkel, it really is a euro crisis Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Hero or hypocrite? The Buffett Rule, then and now Jeff Matthews

CRB commodity index back to 1749 (warning: extreme verticality) Ritholtz

Will stocks rally as profit margins fall?
FT Alphaville

Europeans still dont seem to understand the enormity of their crisis Economist

Misunderstanding the effects of QE2 was a grave mistake, hurting us today Pragmatic Capitalism

The myth of cash on the sidelines James Bianco at The Big Picture

A flowchart of Greece endgames none appealing BBC

The unexamined crisis of 2008 Economists View

Monetary moves have lost their magic Reuters Breakingviews

Jobs are not really being held back by deficit uncertainty The Atlantic

The real failure at Netflix Abnormal Returns

Peak oil may be beside the point Economist

The Troy Davis case shows how wrong eyewitness evidence can be Slate

The Tiger Mom goes to China New Yorker

Overconfidence may be an evolutionary advantage Discover

Buy your own private island in NYC for less than $300,000 Curbed (via Felix Salmon)

Bank of Americas layoffs pointless, wouldnt even pay the lawyers Huffington Post

Time to break up Bank of America The Atlantic

Why is the UK still rated AAA? FT Alphaville

New human ancestor discovered WSJ

The cost of a crowded volatility trade FT Alphaville

Workers malaise foreshadows wider social issues Mohamed El-Erian at Reuters

No, were not waiting for your official recession call, economist Josh Brown in Forbes

Your guide to living in 10 fictional worlds Wired

Failing US economy no reason to stop investing in print media, all experts agree The Onion

Enough with the monetary easing already Pragmatic Capitalism

The US economy is becoming more susceptible to hurricanes Real Time Economics

How Irene lived up to the hype  Five Thirty Eight

The War on Terror is dead The Atlantic

Emerging markets now have more heft and reach than developed ones Economist (video)

Why is the White House defending banks from investigations? Megan McArdle

Hurricane Irene may cause a gas-price spike
CNN/Money

Know the difference between short-term and long-term problems for the economy Ritholtz

Why arent governments more afraid of a double-dip recession? The Atlantic

France deserves a downgrade at least as much as the US does Bethany McLean in Slate

Recent market volatility has historical precedent Mark Hulbert

Stop worrying about China not buying Treasurys, already FT Alphaville

Fed hawks at odds over their reasons for dissent Reuters

Why Rick Perry made a bid for the anti-Fed set  Slate

Maslows hierarchy of needs gets an update The Atlantic

How did so many people feel one small quake in Virginia?  The Atlantic

Philly Fed coincident indicators turning red Calculated Risk

Treasurys are priced for disaster Capital Spectator

Profit recession risks tick higher FT Alphaville

The rich can afford to pay more taxes Bruce Bartlett in Economix



 

Everything You Need to Know About the Latest Market Plunge [But were afraid to ask]  Minyanville Staff Aug 18, 2011  ‘After a rather benign start to the week, markets plunged on Thursday with the S&P 500 shedding 4.5% and the Nasdaq-100 falling nearly 5%. The main driver on the day was speculation European banks remain insufficiently capitalized. Gold jumped nearly 25 to a record high and Treasuries rallied. Among stock movers, Apple (AAPL) outperformed the indices but still dropped 3.7%, Microsoft (MSFT) also outperformed closing down just 2.2%, Bank of America (BAC) dropped 6% and Oracle (ORCL) fell 8.3%.
Below are this week's top Minyanville stories examining the state of the US and global markets.

Is It 2008 Again? Looking at the Summer Crash of 2011
A real bear market has begun, and bonds got it right as early as February that the biggest threat to the global economic system is deflation.
by Michael A. Gayed 

Dynamics of This Market Panic Ripple Though History
The 10-year anniversary of the 1929 high ties to the beginning of World War II on September 1st, 1939 when Hitler invaded Poland and France declared war on Germany.
by Jeffrey Cooper 

Are Gold and S&P 500 Behaving Logically or Irrationally?
Unfortunately Mr. Market rarely embarks upon the logical until he has convinced enough market participants to behave irrationally.
by J. W. Jones 


Random Thoughts: Fed Dissention and Financial Market Fatigue
The world's wildest reality show continues.
by Todd Harrison

Handicapping the Global Economic Recovery
The obvious question must be begged: where do we go from here?
by Todd Harrison 

Coming in October: Next Major Price Cycle Low
A major price cycle on the daily S&P 500 chart, which shows reliability in bottoming about every 15.5 months, is due for its next low on or about October 31.
by Michael Paulenoff 

Volume Trends Suggest Worst Is Not Over for Stocks
When the market rallies hard after a nasty decline, one of the first things that can determine whether the rally's a keeper or not is volume. Here's why.
by Tim Thielen

The Sign of the Bear

When the quarterly turns down, the normal expectation is for the market to carve out a low soon, in terms of time and price -- not to waterfall.
by Jeffrey Cooper

Economy Showing Signs of Life, but Not for Long

We're on the brink of a nice little bump from the data coming in, but on the whole, a 1930s-style depression seems to be on track.
by MoneyShow.com

Wall of Worry Keeps Rising on Europe's Credit Crisis Fears

To make matters worse, politicians in the world's crisis-free countries are on summer vacation.
by Lloyd Khaner

Why Is Everyone Bullish on the US?
Wall Street will always think positively of the market, but the facts are pointing to a bearish phase.
by Gary Kaltbaum

Five Things You Need to Know: Asymmetric Economy Increasingly Untenable and Unstable
This situation cannot continue without adjustment.
by Kevin Depew

Fed's Easing Policy Means Worse Living Through Convexity
As the Fed removes interest rate risk through stealth QE3, it introduces other risks, distorting incentives for investing and weakening the economy in the long term.
by Professor Pinch

Are US Markets Facing the Abyss?

The vast majority of technicals are indicating a new bear leg.
by Jeffrey Cooper ‘

 

 

 

Dow Tumbles on New Worries About Same Old Issues - Aaron Task

Who’s Worse: U.S. Banks or Bernie Madoff? - Stacy Curtin

 



 


WHY NEW LOWS ARE LIKELY   Simon Maierhofer, August 18, 2011  Last Sunday's (August 14) ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter update listed 5 reasons why new lows are likely. Here they are:

HISTORIC REVERSAL

We've been expecting a major market top in the S&P 500 (SNP: ^GSPC), Dow Jones Industrials (DJI: ^DJI) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC). The April 3 ETF Profit Strategy update identified the ideal target range for a major top to be 1,369 - 1,382. The chart below was featured in the same update.

It outlines a top around 1,370 followed by an initial decline to about 1,230 (happened in June), followed by a rally (happened in July), followed by a steep decline.

DEATH CROSS

The death cross is one of the most talked about technical events, that's why I don't put too much stock in it. However, there are two interesting facts about previous death crosses.

The 2000 and 2007 death cross occurred about three days before the S&P embarked on its next leg down. The 2010 death cross was actually a buy signal. However, it occurred after the S&P and DJIA bounced off a multi-year trend line. This time the trend line was broken so a more bearish interpretation of the death cross is appropriate.

                               https://www.etfguide.com/images/PDNewsletter_Images/5%20-%20April%203%20TF.jpg  

SEASONALITY

August, September, and October is the most bearish stretch of the year. September and October sport negative performance even in the pre-election year.

SENTIMENT

From S&P 1,370 on May 2 to S&P 1,258 on June 16, the S&P shed 112 points and sentiment measured by Investors Intelligence (II) and the American Association for Individual Investors (AAII) turned deeply bearish (only 37% II bulls). The June 16 ETF Profit Strategy update took that as a queue to buy (long positions were closed at S&P 1,340).

From S&P 1,353 on July 7 to S&P 1,102 on August 9 the S&P lost 251 points, yet the II sentiment poll registered the second most bullish reading since the first week of May (47.3% II bulls). AAII and II polls are often considered the 'dumb money.' If the 'dumb money' views last Wednesday's low as a buying opportunity, the 'smart money' should be suspicious.

VIX PATTERN

If you have the charting capabilities, take a moment and plot the VIX (Chicago Options: ^VIX) against the S&P for the months of September - November 2008 and April - July 2010. If you don't have the time you may simply look at the chart below.

                                https://www.etfguide.com/images/PDNewsletter_Images/yahoo%20-%20vix%20pattern.gif  

What we've seen in 2008 and 2010 is that a VIX peak did not coincide with the S&P bottom. The S&P bottom actually occurred against a lower VIX reading. If this pattern continues, we will see lower lows.

The August 14 ETF Profit Strategy update includes a detailed analysis of the VIX pattern.

THE SCRIPT

Via more or less accidental chart surfing I found a striking resemblance between the 2007 market top and the May 2011 top.  This moved me to state in the July 17 Profit Strategy update that:

'There is a similar trend line and a triple top above the trend line. A break below that trend line could be a precursor of bad things. Next week the trend line will be at about 1,262.' The S&P sliced through that trend line on August 4 and fell an additional 12% within the next four days.

The August 7 Profit Strategy update revisited that script and concluded this: 'We now have a rough script; let's see how much lip the actors will add during the live performance (I.e. S&P downgrade). 

The two main things I have taken away from the 2007 script are:

1) There will be a new low.

2) There will be a powerful counter trend rally to around 1,xxx (reserved for subscribers).'

THE VERDICT

We got the new low and we got a rather powerful rally. Now the question is, how long will the low last and how high will stocks rally?

The script suggests there will be another low. The VIX pattern suggests there should be another price low. Seasonality suggests that there's some headwind on the way up. Sentiment readings suggest we should be suspicious of any rally. The death cross also suggests lower prices.

SUMMARY

There were a number of good reasons to expect new lows on Sunday. Yesterday's ETF Profit Strategy update recommended to go short as soon as the S&P breaks below 1,373. This happened within the first few minutes of trading today. Now it's time to let the script play out…’

S&P Triggers 200-day MA Death Cross - What Does this Mean? ETFguide.com

Is This a New Bear Market? The Chart That Tells The Whole Story ETFguide.com

Why The Worst May Be Yet To Come ETFguide.com

 

 

 

Abandon Ship?[The USS Titanic] Yes, Because of These 5 Bearish Icebergs | iPhone 2 (robot)... By Michael McGill: August 18, 2011 is a day that has handed out some of the worst economic news since a few days in the 2008 financial crisis, and it has the Dow Jones Industrial Average down big time. The reasons keep piling up to turn bearish and pile into safer investments. Here are 5 reasons showing that investors need to be on the watch out for choppy waters tsunami type waves ahead: Homes Sales Drop 3.5% in July This marks the weakest sales (4.67 million) figure in 14 years, even beating last years disappointing mark of 4.91 million. This is despite the average rate of a 30-year fixed mortgage coming in at its lowest level on record (4.15) this week. This is data to fight the ever increasing hope that home owners have of increasing the value of their homes. Jobless Claims Rise 9,000 Last week investors were looking for Complete Story »

·        Homes Sales Drop 3.5% in July

·        Jobless Claims Rise 9,000

·        Treasuries Hitting Record Highs (record low yields)

·        Inflation at the Consumer Level Rose to 0.5% in July

·        World GDP Growth Slowdown - …’

 

 

 

Dow/Gold Ratio Lowest Since 1987 Crash   Forbes   Adrian Ash Todays gold buyers might still get to look early birds as this depression wears on GROWTH or defensestocks or gold? Intra-day noise aside in summer 2011, Mr.Markets choice looks plain.

The Dow/Gold Ratio a measure of the U.S. stock markets valuation in ounces of gold has sunk as equities have plunged but gold prices have jumped so far this summer.

Dropping through 6.0 ahead of Fridays New York opening, the Dow/Gold Ratio hasnt been this low since early 1989, back when world equity markets were recovering from the Great Crash of Black Monday 1987.

http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/files/DowGoldviii11.png

That slump itself had taken the Dow/Gold Ratio all the way down to 3.6, with gold prices rising to nearly $500 per ounce as the Wall Street index sank to 1776 points. Growth, of course, was only taking a pause in late 1987 a quick breather before the real race to perfection of the late 1990s. Today, in contrast, the Dow/Gold Ratio could still go a lot further down. Or so says history.

Trading a little over its century-long average of 10.0 today, the ratio bottomed during the 1930s Great Depression at just below 2.0 ounces of gold for one Dow unit. At the nadir of the next global depression the inflationary depression of the early 1980s the Dow/Gold Ratio sank even lower, down to 1.0.

Whatever flavor of depression weve got at the start of this decade and it is a depression, as Western jobs data continue to show and as the Dow/Gold yardstick will confirm if it goes much lower (keep an eye on the underperformance of gold mining equities, too) a growing flow of private savings is choosing defense in gold bullion rather than choosing business-risk in listed stocks.

That choice might sound self-fulfilling if you work in psychiatry or government, a kind of clinical disorder open to curing with medication, zero interest rates or perhaps a third round of quantitative easing most likely aimed at risk assets, we guess, rather than the risk free Treasury bonds targeted by QE1 and QE2 and which institutional investors are all-too keen to hold anyway.

So far, however, investors choosing to buy gold only account for a tiny portion of the money fleeing equities.

From here to a true depression low in Dow/Gold (if such a level is reached), todays gold buyers will need to find many more friends. Theyd also look early-birds compared with the rush out of stocks and into gold needed to reach that 2.0 or 1.0 mark.

 

The Great Stocks Vs. Gold Round Trip  Aug 19th, 2011 News (BusinessInsider) — ‘ When priced in gold stocks have now returned to where they were at the market’s low-point, back in 2009. Actually, we’re even worse now.  http://www.usagold.com/pete/newsviews/20110819GoldSPratio.jpg   PG View: In 1965 De Gaulle called for a return to an “indisputable monetary base,” one that “does not bear the mark of any particular country.” He of course was referring to gold. As was pointed out in a Forbes article early in the week on the 40th anniversary of President Nixon closing the gold window, over the last four thousand years, the only period in which humanity has not consistently based its currency in metal, specifically gold, is the last forty.” And look what that has wrought…’


Ignore Buffett's Advice, Don't Buy Stocks at Forbes Bert Dohmen [ Yeah this is really good advice. As a shill for fraudulent wall street, they may have given him some stellar performances and cash to boot; but, the homespun bumpkin senile buffets analytical abilities, if ever really extant, have certainly passed the point of no return. You may recall how the clintons, with a mere $1,000 or so, were revealed as commodities trading wizards, but as written up in the Wall Street Journal someone was giving them money. In fairness, that they were singled out (was) is a bit arbitrary inasmuch as thats going on all the time on wall street, and now with greater precision owing to greater computer programming capabilities, to everyone elses detriment. Remember, in a manner of speaking, there are two sides to every trade, viz., winner and loser (in relative terms).] The markets plunged going into August 8. On that day, the DJI closed with a loss of 629 points. My indicators signaled that a brief bounce would commence the next day. According to the charts, the first target for the S&P 500 was 1205. The target was hit exactly a few days later. That was followed by a renewed plunge.

I have been looking for a serious crisis to start in September. It appears that we have seen the prelude for that. The big smart money has been preparing for the past five months.You can see the distribution pattern on the charts since mid-February. The rush to the exits is now accelerating and the smart money has been selling short in large amounts.

The extreme bullish sentiment that prevailed until the latest plunge was first replaced by complacency, then by concern. However, the fear stage is still missing, except at hedge funds that were forced to sell because of margin calls. In fact, during the severe plunge in the first week of August, investment investors became even more bullish according to Investorsintelligence.com. That is not good for the markets.

The market negatives are increasing in numbers. The IPO window is now shut. There are signs that credit is once again vanishing. Loans are being called in, some companies appear to have difficulties rolling over their Commercial Paper, junk bonds yields are soaring, European banks may stop lending to each other, and the European crisis is spreading out across the globe. Its my view that this will cause another credit crisis, just as in 2008.

Whats worse is that contrary to 2008, the big players learned to read the signs from their 2008 mistakes. They are now wide awake, although in the media, their minions still repeat the same bullish fairy tale. This means that this crisis could develop much faster than the last one. (Read my book, Financial Apocalypse, which is the 2008 roadmap, one which can be used very well for what is now happening.)

The words possible recession suddenly is being mentioned a lot in the media, although economists still strongly deny that possibility. Our rule is that the stronger their denials, the more certain and the deeper the recession will be. In fact, I declared in our May 9 issue of the Wellington Letter that the recession had started.

Morgan Stanley lowered its global GDP growth forecasts for 2012 from 4.5% to 3.8%. My forecast is for 1%-2% or less. It would be negative growth except for the fudged inflation numbers.

The European politicians are not any smarter than those in the U.S. Merkel and Sarkozy had a meeting in Paris and did nothing. That day I called the outcome Disastrous for the markets. It took the markets a day to digest the consequences and then the selling avalanche started. Many of the markets in Europe, led by the banks stocks, went into virtual free falls, losing from 4%-7% in one day. Such losses indicate an approaching crisis.

Now we see some of the well-known Wall Street figures appearing in the media, telling investors all the reasons why stocks are a good buy. One appeared with a long list of bullish factors. Well, that list didnt prevent the global stock market from losing an incredible $6 trillion over the past several weeks. He did the same cheerleading on national TV in 2007 before investors lost 50% of their wealth.

Warren Buffett is also once again the cheerleader saying he is buying stocks. He did that in 2007-2008 as well, and then the meltdown started later in 2008.

I would not fall for this self-serving advice. Words cannot rescind a recession that we already have, it cannot stop the insolvency of entire countries in Europe, it cant change the fact that major profit downgrades will appear soon, and it cant stop the China crisis that is now starting.

Gold is soaring, but the mining stocks look terribly weak. There is great danger now with the gold stocks getting hit hard by less developed countries, including South Africa, to nationalize gold mines. This is too lucrative for them to resist.

I would get out of all money market funds unless they are U.S. government only.  The MMFs have big exposure to European banks. We believe that lending between banks in Europe may seize, which means that the whole structure will start shaking. You will start hearing the word contagion.

In my opinion, the danger period is approaching. What we have seen until now is just a preview. The main feature is likely to be worse.

Bert Dohmen is editor of Bert Dohmens Wellington Letter and author of Prelude To Meltdown (2007) and Financial Apocalypse (2011).




The "Crimes" That Wrecked The Markets  Forbes / Robert Lenzner CNNs anchor in London, Richard Quest, raised the issue squarely today about trying to explain the crimes that have created this failure to recover from the 2008 recession and the fear of another  downturn in the economy that could wipe out many of the gains we have achieved. Quest, of course, did not mean felonies or violations of the law that would land people in prison. I think he meant crimes of bad policy, crimes of financial illiteracy, crimes of stupidity, crimes of poor leadership.

So, heres my attempt to sum up my answer to Quest.

The powers-that-be saved  the Masters of the Universe on Wall Street by using trillions of loans, investments and guarantees that sent the signal that Finance was the nations Number One Priority.  This historic gift to finance meant that the growing disparity between the super-rich and the middle class would continue to widen, without anyone of our top policy gurus suggesting it was splitting our nation. Some academics even worry about the crime of pushing the middle class into poverty.

Nevertheless, there was no bold strategy left to help those out of work. It was a crime that the stimulus program did nothing to create any jobs in the private sector. Obamas economic adviser in 2009 , Larry Summers, was dead set against a make-work program to put the nations skilled construction workers busy on repairing  the rusting infrastructure he finds distasteful at airports and railroad stations. Now, we are going to be given the sop of an infrastructure bank that couldnt possibly be in place for years, if ever.

No question the handling  of the debt limit debacle was  crime of poor planning, no overall shred strategy and trying to effect a master plan for $4  trillion cuts with only days to go before the August 2nd deadline. Keystone Cops,  whatever you wish to call it caused a loss of confidence in the nations politicians; a kind of virtual crime on the public who deserved better. Much better. This entire episode removed the foundations to rational expectations for the stock market and threw the nation into a madhouse of volatility and confusion.

I dont know what to call the lapse in the markets faith in paper money and the more-or-less steady rise in the price of gold from $850 an ounce 3 years ago to well over $1800 today.  There is no other stock, bond or commodity you could have purchased that had this magnificent performance. Well, maybe the shares of Apple, and some global commodity producers.

Moreover, it was a crime to do nothing about the obscene bonuses taken by the Masters of the Universe who only were able to pay themselves in this way because of the federal bailout. No one has tried to  get back the fortunes taken away by Lehmans Richard Fuld,  Countrywide Credits Angelo Mozilloor either of the Merrill Lynch CEOs, who helped destroy their iconic firm. Now theres a crime.

Then, theres the  SECs unwillingness to reinstitute the uptick on short sales of stock so that hedge funds and other speculators could not trigger sharp sell-offs in the stock market If you had this uptick rule back, every short seller would have to wait for a transaction at a higher price to  sell short rather than the libertarian crime that allows them to pound a stock lower to make sure-thing profits. Its a crime short sellers are able to shoot ducks in a barrel. Shocking lack of fairness. No wonder Aunt Sadie is fleeing.

No doubt there were crimes committed in the week of volatility, with gyrations that scared the public. These movements up and down were caused by the high frequency trading by computers owned by hedge funds who are not investors but in-and-out traders several times a day and who have no regard for fundamental values.  These Masters Of  The Universe have the ultimate power in American society because of their political contributions and lobbying.

I believe Obamas health plan to be a crime because it was a sellout to the 5 giant health insurance firms that were given 4 years clear and free to raise their premiums without interference. It was a crime because Obama was told by leading Senators it was a terrible sellout of the citizenry.

I dont know what to call the bankruptcy of fiscal and monetary policy.  In some existential sense it is a crime that we have run out of  fiscal and monetary ammunition to turn this  collapsing shock treatment around. It is a crime that 300 million people will be looking for Ben Bernanke, Fed Chairman, to pull a rabbit out of a hat in Jackson, Wyoming next week, when central bankers are meeting.  QE2 came from last years meeting but it created no jobs.

The same will be true after Labor Day when the much-ballyhooed Obama  speech on jobs is coming. I fear expectations are going to be terribly disappointed. Expect  rhetoric as in We have always been a Triple A nation and we always will be Triple A. That was a crime of speaking mush, when 300 million people know better, and wanted to hear something meaningful. Not to have bold, kick-ass leadership at a time of crisis is a sad sort of a crime. 



Accounting Gimmics Resurface as Growth Flounders at TheStreet ‘-- Accounting gimmicks -- once the staple of the boom-boom stock market -- are on the rise as companies attempt to convince analysts and investors that they are profitable despite a sluggish economy, according to industry watchers. Accounting techniques of Groupon and Zynga were under the spotlight recently, with the Securities and Exchange Commission instructing both companies to adhere to more stricter and conventional accounting standards, causing them to amend their IPO offer documents.

The creative metrics in the IPO documents of recent social-media IPOs are reminiscent of the dot-com bubble when stocks were valued on metrics like "eyeballs", while fundamentals like revenues and profits were ignored.

 

Rebekah Smith, director of financial advisory services at accounting and consulting firm GBQ consulting, says accounting tricks and schemes are likely to start unraveling as we head into 2012 and the lag effect catches up. "The typical accounting fraud goes on for about 18 to 26 months before it is uncovered. The frauds that took place in 2009 are not going to surface until later in 2011 or into 2012."

 

Financial statement fraud like the kind that took place at Enron are rare. The Association of Certified Fraud Examiners estimates that such manipulation accounts for only 4.8% of total fraud cases, although it causes the most financial damage, with the median loss being more than $4 million.

 

But accounting gimmicks that focus on non-GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) measures are rampant and they can be misleading.

Groupon, for instance, claimed that the marketing expenses incurred to acquire customers were "one-time investments" and hence they should be excluded from the calculations of operating income.

By that metric the company made an operating profit at $81.6 million in the first quarter of 2011, as opposed to an operating loss of $113.9 million under traditional accounting standards.

 

However, analysts were quick to point out the metric was absurd. "If you are going to capitalize acquisition costs, the onus is on you to show proof that acquired customers stay as customers (and actually buy products for many years)," Aswath Damodaran, Professor of Finance at Stern School of Business and a reputed author of textbooks on valuation, wrote in a blog post.

 

"With strong competition from other online coupon based companies (like LivingSocial), it is entirely possible that customers once acquired, are fickle and move on... If that is the case, the acquisition cost has a very short amortizable life and begins to look more like an operating expense," he wrote.

 

Zynga issued a restatement of its second quarter results saying it did not hew to accounting standards in the way it estimates how long people play its video games. That had the effect of understating revenues during the second quarter. While the impact of the Zynga's restatement itself was not substantial, it highlighted the murky accounting involved when it comes to new business models.  "There is a new market of publicly traded companies with business models that open more room for interpretation on how revenues and costs should be treated. We do see some aggressive accounting techniques" says Dan Mahoney, director of research at the Center for Financial Research and Analysis, a unit of MSCI that specializes in forensic accounting.

Smith of GBQ Consulting says there is a greater risk of financial statement manipulation at such new-age businesses. "We have a lot of new business models and people are still trying to understand how the finances of these companies work," she said. "Companies get to decide what to tell them[investors] on how their industry works. They decide what the metrics should be."

While in a traditional sector an astute analyst might call a company's bluff, it is harder when you don't have history as a guide. "We don't have a typical 10-year history. As a financial professional, you can't make a conclusion on what the financial metrics should look like," says Smith.

Mahoney at CFRA says companies with high valuations are also ripe for these sort of gimmicks, as they are under pressure to sustain valuations.

While in a traditional sector an astute analyst might call a company's bluff, it is harder when you don't have history as a guide. "We don't have a typical 10-year history. As a financial professional, you can't make a conclusion on what the financial metrics should look like," says Smith.

Netflix(NFLX) has been criticized in the past for its calculation of subscriber churn rate, which looks at the number of cancellations as a proportion of subscribers. Netflix's method has the effect of overstating the subscriber base, thus making the churn rate seem lower.

Analysts have over time learned to adjust for this inconsistency. And as it turns out, the movie rental firm has drastically limited the metrics it is willing to provide , saying that in 2012 it will no longer report churn, gross subscriber additions and subscriber acquisition costs.

Problem solved.

Stern's Damodaran says companies resort to these tricks because the market analysts simplistically assign multiples to a profit metric. All companies have to do is "make a change that affects earnings and you can change the valuation," he says. "Investors need to understand what Groupon's business model is, what their potential market is, who are they going up against."

--Written by Shanthi Bharatwaj in New York

>To contact the writer of this article, click here: Shanthi Bharatwaj.



Morgan Stanley Biggest Welfare Recipient as Federal Reserve Lent Banks $1.2 Trillion During Financial CrisisWall St. Cheat Sheet



Dow:Gold Ratio and the Secular Bear Market at Minyanville  Toby Connor Aug 23, 2011 ‘However low the risk, large potential trades are now in the stock market, not in playing chicken with the gold parabola.

 As I have been warning investors for many months, stocks have now entered stage III of the secular bear market. Gold, on the other hand, is now in the final parabolic phase of a 2.5 year C wave advance.

My best guess was that we would see a Dow:Gold ratio of between 5-6 before this C-wave ended. The ratio was at 5.71 as of today. I think we may still have a little further to go on the downside for stocks and a little further upside in gold. So it's entirely possible that we could see a Dow gold ratio of 1:5 before the trends reverse.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/File/August11/tobyc8231.JPG
Click to enlarge

However low the risk, large potential trades are now in the stock market, not in playing chicken with the gold parabola.

Cyclically the stock market is now in the middle of the timing band for an intermediate bottom. Presumably a sharp bear market rally in stocks will trigger a regression to the mean, profit-taking event in the precious metals market (the D-wave).

D-waves almost always test, and sometimes marginally penetrate, the 200-day moving average. I've illustrated in the chart above a rough guess as to where I expect the countertrend rally in stocks and the D-wave correction in gold to retrace.

Keep in mind that the fundamentals for gold have not changed. A D-wave is simply a profit-taking event triggered by an unsustainable parabolic rally. It has nothing to do with fundamentals. Once the D-wave has run its course, gold will enter a sharp snapback rally (the A-wave), after which it should consolidate for the remainder of the bear market in stocks.

Stocks, on the other hand, after what should be a very convincing bear market rally, will roll over and continue down into a final four-year cycle low, probably in the late summer or early fall of 2012.

Depending on whether or not the Fed tries to fight the cleansing process, or Ben Bernanke tries to stop the bear market with another round of quantitative easing, stocks should either test or breach the March '09 lows.

Either way I expect that 2012 will go down as one of the worst years in human history. Certainly in the same category as 1932, if not worse
…’

 

Is the Market Forecasting War?   { Kind of a large dart board in terms of educated guessing in light of the perma-war bent of these perma-war bent nations; viz., ie., u.s., israel, europe, etc.. }  [ If so, and if this writers correct, all natos and americas misguided actions in the Mideast will be viewed as an attempt to weaken Arab nations for the benefit of war-mongering israel and will never be forgotten as such, to the substantial detriment of the dying so-called western alliance. ]



End Of Cycle Smelling Like Dow 3K, Gold 3K  Forbes /  Bill Bonner  Listen up, dear reader herein we announce an historic Daily Reckoning forecast.  Heres your north star, your compass, your GPS to the future. Print it out. Paste it to your refrigerator:

About the turn of the century, two markets turned Gold turned up Stocks turned down These major trends will end Whence they meet

Our view is that the bear market began in January 2000. The feds fought it off with two huge extravaganzas of spending the first beginning in 2001 the other after 2008.

Stimulus does wonders for stock prices but it no longer works for the economy that sustains them. For every dollar that the Fed has put to work to fight the crisis since 2008, for example, it has produced only 80 cents worth of GDP. It didnt work.

Fighting a credit contraction with more credit is a losing proposition. Eventually, investors are bound to realize that stocks are headed down. Eventually the bear market will resume. And eventually it will come to an end.

But when? Our guess is that it will end when the Dow and the price of gold arrive at the same point probably around $3,000. Whatever the number, youll be able to buy the entire group of Dow stocks for the price of one ounce of gold.

Of course, our view is a minority one. Warren Buffett doesnt buy it. Most investors dont buy it. We dont even suggest that you buy it, dear reader. Just remember it. If it turns out as expected, we want to be able to say We told you so.

And if it doesnt work out? Please have the grace to forget we mentioned it.

We would like to be able to predict the future, but weve never gotten the hang of it. Were just guessing.

But since were just guessing, we dont see why we should hold back.

Were also guessing that

the weight of so much debt is depressing growthand will soon depress stock prices too

that the economy is becoming zombified from too much government moneyespecially the military

that Mr. Market is ready for a long bear market anyhow; hes tanned, rested, and ready to go to work

that the US is following in Japans footstepstowards a long period of on-again, off-again recession

that the recession of 08-09 in the US never actually ended

and that stocks will go down over the next 5-10 years until they finally hit a real bottom.

Our guess is that gold goes down, shakes out the speculators and weak investors and then, perhaps a couple years from now, perhaps longer begins its third and final phase.

 

Back-to-School Sales Looking Blahat The Wall Street Journal

 

CHINA, EMERGING MARKETS POINT TO DOUBLE-DIP 2011 August 24 http://www.iphone2die4.com/2011/08/24/china-emerging-markets-point-to-double-dip   iphone-robot ChartProphet submit: The collapse of the emerging markets, especially China, India, and Brazil, will have a huge ripple effect on the rest of the worlds economies, and will plunge most countries back into a global recession.One of the major drivers of the markets over the past two years has been the unstoppable and highly promising future of the emerging markets, especially China. As millions of inhabitants in emerging countries begin to enter the modern world and middle class, their consumption and their effect on the economies of countries all over the globe increases. And as millions of people contribute to the growth of China, India, and other countries, they will require extra food, energy sources such as gasoline and oil, cotton for their increased consumption and clothing needs, industrial metals for their new cars and technology, and many other materials that a growing and evolving population needs…’

 

 

How much higher can Apple shares go without Jobs? (Reuters) [ Or the market without jobs? The answer euphemistally is not much but more accurately should be not all and down quite a bit! ]

 

 

Arguments for Being in the Crash Camp   Conor Sen  Aug 29, 2011 ‘If you want to take risk, only own things you're willing to own in a down 20-30% tape, because that's what we could see over the next month.  ‘This piece is going to read a bit like an inner monologue in the hopes that seeing how I wrestle with conflicting ideas may help with your own thought process. One of the responsibilities of putting your thoughts online for public consumption is only writing when you think you have something worth reading. After awhile you accumulate a portfolio of pieces and can see common themes in your writing, the struggles you've had, and whether you've been on the mark or not. And this summer I've written primarily about three topics: 1) the 2011 consumer tech IPO names led by Groupon, LinkedIn, and Zillow, which I've done a reasonable job with, 2) pessimism about the debt ceiling deal being resolved early due to the intransigence of the 2011 GOP, which I also feel I analyzed well, and 3) the ongoing macro tug-of-war between compelling valuations and the escalating European debt crisis, which I've gotten wrong.

The closest I got was in a June 24 piece where I wrote,

"My experience in 2007-08 taught me that in credit contagions understanding these dynamics is all that matters. Charts don't matter, macro data doesn't really matter, and until the contagion stops valuation doesn't really matter either. A $1 bill could trade for 70 cents if firms need to raise capital."


That's what I fought earlier this month, convinced that valuations for some blue-chip firms and not-as-bad-as-people-think macro data would be good enough. It hasn't been. The problem is, I thought about the issue too narrowly, focusing only on European sovereign spreads without seeing the second-order effects those spreads would eventually have. As sovereign spreads for the European periphery widened, governments responded by imposing austerity measures, which have now flowed through to the point where Europe may be back in recession. Here's one measure of the trend in economic activity for the key European countries.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/LisaCatchJUNE2011/plummet1.jpg

With sovereign spreads stressed and economic activity rolling over, European banks have been under pressure, both the equity and of course the credits, with credit default swaps for European banks at wider levels than they were in 2008-09.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/LisaCatchJUNE2011/plummet2.jpg

The problem with this is that credit spreads and equity prices are intricately linked, as this chart from Goldman Sachs shows comparing the spreads of the key iTraxx Main CDS index with the STOXX 600 index, Europe's equivalent to the S&P 500.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/LisaCatchJUNE2011/plummet3.jpg

And in a leveraged, interconnected world, a systemic problem somewhere flows everywhere else, as investment-grade and high-yield credit indices in the US show.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/LisaCatchJUNE2011/plummet4.jpg

The key question I've asked this week is: Can European banks, or Bank of America, fund themselves right now? The answer is no. That's a problem. If economic data were getting better, even on a green shoots basis, that might be one thing, but just about every data point we've gotten out of Europe recently, or Philly Fed here in the US, has been negative on a second derivative, and in many cases, a first derivative basis.

If we knew that fiscal and monetary policymakers were ready to fire bazookas and gas up their helicopters, that'd be a different story. In 2008-09 we got a big fiscal stimulus package out of China and a lesser but still sizable one in the US. Today we have both the US and Europe looking to cut spending, not increase it. On the monetary policy front, the ECB actually raised rates this summer, and Ben Bernanke's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday shows that either he doesn't think additional stimulus is needed, that it won't help, or that there's too much political risk to take bold action, precisely the problem he said hampered the Japanese in his famous 2002 speech on deflation.

Most worrisome of all might have been comments out of German Chancellor Angela Merkel last weekend, when she said, “Politicians can’t and won’t simply run after the markets. The markets want to force us to do certain things. That we won’t do. Politicians have to make sure that we’re unassailable, that we can make policy for the people.”

This is after a 25% drop in the DAX, and the leader of the country that holds all the cards in Europe says that she won't be bullied by markets. The Bernanke/Merkel/Trichet put may exist, but its strike price appears to be a lot lower than many thought.

When nearly every major bank in Europe has a credit spread north of 300bps or is headed there in a hurry, I'm not going to make the argument that so-so US economic data, solid earnings, and attractive valuations will win out in the short term. Markets are cruel and merciless when it comes to leveraged institutions under financial stress. In 2008-09 to combat this we got TARP, the AIG (AIG) bailout, the stimulus package, the Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program (TLGP), a whole host of other short-term funding programs from the Fed, and finally in March of 2009 we got green shoots, second derivative improvements in the economy. Today we have, "Most of the economic policies that support robust economic growth in the long run are outside the province of the central bank." If the SPX went to 700-800 we would see multi-generational bargains for a whole host of names, many of which would trade at around cash value plus a 2-3 multiple on earnings. But structurally, there's no reason why it can't happen. If you want to take risk here, only own things you're willing to own in a down 20-30% tape, because that's what we could see over the next month.’

 

 

 

Stocks Woosh Higher in Vacuum, Now Perfectly Poised for Disappointment at The Wall Street Journal

 



 

What to Expect Next From the Markets at Minyanville  Jeffrey Cooper Aug 29, 2011  ‘Conclusion: It looks like a program was run using the least amount of dollars to goose the indices by focusing on some big cap names like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Baidu (BIDU), IBM (IBM), and Caterpillar (CAT) on Friday. That is why the market is so dangerous here ‘   ‘From a technical perspective, the markets are looking dangerous right now. On Friday, a big buy program was run for Ben Bernanke’s speech after running the stops and getting traders short.

The S&P buckled after breaking the 1154 mid-point of the recent range, running the stops and trapping shorts for good measure on a Pinocchio of the key 1140 support, as offered in the last report.

However a first hour low was scored in a mirror image of recent first hour highs and I sent an alert to cover shorts. Combined with Bernanke’s speech, the flip was switched to save a poor weekly close when the S&P recaptured 1154.

A 10 minute chart of the SPY shows a downside ORB (a break of the opening range defined by the first 30 minutes) to flush the stops, and then an ORB Reversal back through the level of the downside pivot, followed by a powerful Reverse ORB on a thrust back through the top of the opening range implying a trend day to the upside.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/cooper/0811/29/ARCX_SPY_10%20--%20SPDR%20S&P%20500%20TRUST.jpg

The promise of the Catapult ORB -- first to the downside then back to the upside -- was further fulfilled on penetrating topside lateral resistance above 117 SPY.

In so doing, the notion of a Fed Cha Cha Cha was turned into more of a jitterbug for the shorts to run for cover.

The ensuing extension by the SPY led to a retracement back to the low of Thursday’s high bar.

Thursday gave a first hour high while Friday gave a first hour low as the robots play ping pong with tape.

One might fairly call Friday the “case of the missing ‘cha’".

Typically following Fedspeak, there is a sequence of 3 moves in opposite directions with the third move being the genuine bias.

In Thursday morning’s report I suggested that the direction following the first hour on that day should be the bias into the weekend. There was a change of character in the dynamics which the Reverse ORB did a good job of identifying.

There is another short term change in character implying a continuation on Monday morning (whether that will define a first hour high again near the important 1180ish resistance remains to be seen).

That short term change in character is set up by Friday’s Reversal of a Reversal, or what I call a ‘Kaiser Soze’.

Why? The important Three Day Chart Turned down on Monday as the S&P traced out 3 consecutive lower daily lows. In addition, Monday saw the Weekly Swing Chart turn down.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/cooper/0811/29/SPXweeklyJulyb.jpg
Click to enlarge

The fact that the turndown was marginal and defined a low immediately in terms of both time and price was a bullish indication of a short term test and a potential short term “W” bottom on the daily charts.

The takeaway was a multi-day rally which played out, finally satisfying a kiss of the overhead 20 day moving average which the S&P failed to accomplish on the first rally off the lows.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/cooper/0811/29/INDEX_$SPX_D%20--%20S&P%20500%20INDEX%20%7BDelay20%7D.jpg

The tag of the 20 dma, which played out on Thursday, was the first test of that trendline since the Cascade Setup began in July.

A pullback to the 20 dma is referred to by many traders as the Holy Grail for its effectiveness in defining a reversal point -- especially the first time.

Like clockwork, the S&P was rejected by the 20 dma on Thursday in concert with a turnup of the Three Day Chart. This defined another high, setting up a continuation trade for Friday to the downside.

However, a funny thing happened when the bears pressed the case of the “yes we have no QE3 Bananas for you” speech at the Jackson Hole forum -- the S&P left a Reversal of a Reversal, stopping right at the 20 day moving average and flirting with an extension above it this morning. This would coincide with a breakout over a trendline from late July.

Not all breakouts are created equal, as we saw with the breakout to a new high in May this year and also on the short-lived trendline breakout into the important July 7th pivot high.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/cooper/0811/29/SPXdailyAprilb.jpg
Click to enlarge

My rule of thumb is that breakouts and upspikes in persistent bear phases are made for the selling. However, as the weekly chart of the S&P shows, the index will turn its weekly chart back up on trade over last week's high of 1190.68 (Thursday’s first hour high).

The normal expectation is that this would set up another high, but because of the pattern of the W bottom, the constructive behavior on last week's turndown of the Weekly Swing Chart, and because the S&P is poised to pop over its 20 dma this morning which coincides with a breakout over a declining trendline, there is a likelihood that the bears will keep their claws in their pockets and the bulls may snort a little. While I would give the market its due on the upside if the action is constructive following the turn up of the weekly chart -- which the futes suggest will occur near the open -- I am not too interested in being long more than a few hours and overnight.

Be that as it may, a further change in short term behavior and constructive action following a turn up of the Weekly Swing Chart suggests a move to/over 1208, the recent swing high.

 

At the same time the the 55-day panic point from the July 7th pivot window does not close until August 31st, so this is tricky here. However, the market is not a fine Swiss watch and when it comes to these cycles one must allow for plus or minus a few days. I think we should key off the behavior following a turnup in the weekly chart and the action following the first hour. If the trend is still in runaway down mode, another high could be defined quickly. I would exercise some patience here and let the market speak.

The cycles suggest another short-term plunge into September 3rd and then a bigger rally to 1220 or higher into/around the end of the first week of September to September 11th. It then suggests another plunge that undercuts the 1100 low to possibly as low as 1018ish. If a flush of the lows plays out under 1100, it could mirror the pattern from 1937 or 1938. In other words it could be a fractal of the first waterfall decline with a marginal undercut, or we could see a deep flush of the lows.

The takeaway is that not all W bottoms are created equal. Often a W V pattern plays out. This is the pattern that played out from the triangle/consolidation in late 2008 to the “V” in March ’09.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/cooper/0811/29/DJ-30%201937%20-%201938%20final%202.jpg

While the institutional bulls are caught long on the trap door setup from August, a little strategy is required: above 1180 and then 1200 could see the S&P test 1220ish. This marks the double tops from April/November 2010. When the market knifed though those prior highs, which should have been ultimate support if the trend was still healthy, the Head & Shoulders Top projection to 1150 at a minimum became irrefutable. Those prior peaks near 1220, now broken, should offer substantial resistance. However, with many funds trapped short and everyone looking for a test of the neckline near 1250/1260 and a test of the 200 day moving average as it turns down, reconfirming the sign of the bear, it’s anybody’s guess if the sellers let it get back there -- at least in September. Perhaps a test of the 200 day plays out after a ‘W V’ and a flush of the lows, leading to a big “Bankers Rally”/Christmas rally to rescue bonuses, like in 2007.

Conclusion: It looks like a program was run using the least amount of dollars to goose the indices by focusing on some big cap names like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Baidu (BIDU), IBM (IBM), and Caterpillar (CAT) on Friday.

That is why the market is so dangerous here -- because despite big gains in these names when a big fund turns around to liquidate, they find few substantial bids on the way back down and these same stocks can be down 4 and 5 points again with another 400 point DJIA down day. When exactly that next break comes is anybody’s guess, but cycles suggest it is sooner rather than later. I would be patient about being too long for more than a few hours to a day or two for the time being. With everyone looking for the Big Backtest of the 200 dma, it is also anybody’s guess as to when that arrives -- from here or following a flush out of the lows. With everyone eyeing perceived targets of S&P 1220 to 1250, will the market just burn out here with everybody waiting and with an undercut of the lows having to play out before a better rally into year end? It is interesting that the war cycle from 1990 -- when Iraq's invasion of Kuwait on August 2nd precipitated a market waterfall -- that there was a July pivot high as there was this year.

In 1990 there was no low until October. August 2, 1990 was 252 months ago, tying to the big September 3rd historic cycle (which includes the 1929 all time high). In addition we have the 120 month anniversary of 9/11 and that Spike & Reversal pattern coming up, so I think a lot of volatility remains in store and patience and discipline will be critical no matter how good a short term change in character appears.

Strategy: I would look to scalp long above 1170 and scalp short below 1160. Monday may hold up, but it will be interesting to see if we reach the high for the week today -- in bear phases the first hour of the session often times scores the high for the day. If Tuesday is a reversal day, I suspect the market will trend down into the Labor Day weekend. If the market rallies up into the weekend it should define another ledge and jumping off point.

Gold broke according to expectations early last week from just above 1900. Another short sets up in the 1820 zone if it hasn’t already topped with a turnup of the daily charts on Friday. Ditto iShares Silver Trust (SLV). The next break should target 1660 and below that 1590.’

 

 

Obama's Legacy: A Failed Recovery & Double-Dip Recession Forbes / Mariotti  There will be no significant recovery in the United States of America while Barack Obama is President.  The evidence is overwhelming:  everything Obama has tried to fuel a recovery (with his Democratic allies in Congress) has failed.  Statistics claiming jobs saved by the stimulus package were mostly fiction, and cost American taxpayers about $275,000 each.  Nearly 2-1/2 million fewer Americans have jobs than before the stimulus.

Barack Obama has been President for 30 months2-1/2 years. He spent the first year obsessed with passing Obamacare, a program that doesnt create jobs, but might destroy a lot of them.  He bailed out GM, but many believe that his interference didnt save GM; it merely cost taxpayers an extra $15-20 billion, and stole from legitimate investors to buy off the UAW.  His broken campaign promises are too numerous to list.  At some point, his statute of limitations on blaming Bush runs out.  The latest joke is that the White House is that named the location of East Coast earthquake near DC Bushs Fault.

Obama himself said, “…that after three years, if the economy wasnt fixed he should be a one-term president.

Clearly the economic malaise started on George W. Bushs watch.  Its causes will be argued for decades, but most of them are traceable to irresponsible lending and excessive spending both by government and the American people.  The trouble that started before 2008 is directly traceable to actions (or inactions) of Bush and GOP allies in Congress.  They spent America into the start of the current deficit during his eight years in the White House.

But that was then, and this is now. Since Obama took office the situation has gotten much, much worse. Obama has run up the deficit at more than twice the rate Bush did. During the first quarter of 2011, the US economy barely grew at 0.4%that was followed by second quarters anemic growth of 1%.  This was during the period when the Obama recovery was supposed to be well underway.  Employment data is unremittingly terrible:  new jobless claims are stuck at 400,000+/- each month, with job creation well below what it takes just to absorb new workforce entrants.  More Americans have been unemployed longer than ever in our history.  And looking ahead, the news is not good.

This is Obamas failed American recovery, and in the near future, Obamas impending double-dip recession (thanks in no small part to his three consecutive years with Trillion-dollar in deficits that have inflated the national deficit to soaring heights$14+ Trillion.)  That legacy clearly belongs to President Barack Obama and with help from the Congress led by Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi during 2008-2010.   Thanks to them, our country hasnt even had a budget since Obama took office.

The latest Obama Blame Finger pointing focuses on the Tea Party as extremists who have a problem with astronomical deficits as far as the eye can see.  (Pointing at Bush is getting a little old since hes been out of office for 2-1/2 years).  Obama needs a new scapegoat.  The problem with the Tea Party is that it is like the child in the fairy tale, The Emperors New Clothes. The child is reviled for pointing out that the emperor is naked.  Thus, the Tea Party is not wrong, just unwelcome.

Now Obama also wants to point the Blame Finger at the GOP House for the downgrade in the US debt rating by Standard and Poors.  It seems that he believes that everyone else is to blame but him. That downgrade was predestined by the combination of irresponsible spending and Obamas clueless attempts to throw money at a recovery to no avail.  Spending $1.50 for every dollar of revenue, running trillion dollar annual deficits is reason enough for a downgrade in the US debt rating.

Face it folks:  This is Obamas failed recovery. And if (or when) it comes to pass, this double-dip recession (just around the corner) is his too.

Make no mistake, there IS plenty of blame to go around.  About 75% of Americans are fed up with both Obama and Congress.   The conservative and liberal factions of the House and Senate behaved badly in the recent debt ceiling negotiation.  President Obama wanted to stay above the fray so he provided no leadership. He didnt even know how to bring the opposing viewpoints together.  He talked about bi-partisanship and consensus, but his actions disproved his words.

Until the president saw an impending disaster, he sat on the sidelines, afraid to do anything that might hinder his reelection campaign.  Then, when his intervention didnt help, and arguably hurt the progress, he grew impatient, petulant and angry.

John Boehner, however, did an admirable job trying to build a compromise deal on the debt ceiling, and get his own Caucus to support such a plan.  Except, Obama was attacked by his liberal base for even considering the grand bargain, so he came in and dumped another raise taxes more demand on Boehner.  Id have walked out too, which Boehner was right to do.

But at least they were arguing about the right thing: how much to cut spending and how.

The Tea Partys desire for fiscal responsibility is right, but it doesnt mean that tax revenue cant be increased.  It can; how its done is what matters.  The tax code desperately needs to be restructured.  Simply digging in on old positions doesnt help; it hurts.  The goal is to get the country working again, and grow our way out of this mess.

The one phrase of President Obamas that I agree with is Country First.  But John Boehner was the one who tried his best to put Country First.  If Obama truly chooses that as his 2012 campaign slogan, it will reek of hypocrisy.

If the members of Congress would put 1) country first, 2) constituents wishes next, and 3) personal agendas last, they might be able to work together to find a way out of this mess.

What happens in the Super-Committee of Twelve will be both revealing and predictive.  Either Americas Congressional leaders willor wontput "country first" and try to find common ground and reasonable compromises to lead America out of this mess.

Whatever happens, this failed recovery and impending recession belong to President Barack Obama.  His condescending explanations of why we Americans dont get it, how this will take a long time, this recovery, and his class warfare about millionaires and billionaires versus the common folk are all wearing thin.

This kind of rhetoric wont solve Americas problems.   It takes strong, informed, and experienced leadership to get through a mess like this one. We need a fixer, not a hypocritical speechmaker in the White House.  Barack Obama is not that man.  A wise man once told me, The person who got you into a problem is seldom the one who will get you out of it. Thats why there will be no recovery on Obamas watch…’

 



Chart Shock: The REAL Unemployment Rate Is 22% The Daily Bail September 2, 2011 http://www.infowars.com/chart-shock-the-real-unemployment-rate-is-22

http://dailybail.com/storage/chart-real-unemployment-3.gif?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1314981227699

’It’s now above 23% with the August update.  Details from John William’s Shadow Stats.’  Shadow Stats ‘The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers. The U-3 unemployment rate is the monthly headline number. The U-6 unemployment rate is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) broadest unemployment measure, including short-term discouraged and other marginally-attached workers as well as those forced to work part-time because they cannot find full-time employment.’

 

 

 

Deja Vu All Over Again: Total US Debt Passes Debt Ceiling… In Under One Month Since Extension  Sep 2nd, 2011 News (ZeroHedge) — ‘Remember when one month ago the US, to much pomp and circumstance, not to mention one downgrade, announced a grand bargain raising the debt ceiling from $14.294 trillion to something much higher, with a stop gap intermediate ceiling of $14.694 trillion, or $400 billion more. Well, as of today, or less than a month since the expansion, total US debt is at $14.697 trillion. Yep – the total debt is again over the ceiling, which means the US debt increased by $400 billion in one month. Score one for fiscal prudence. And while the total debt subject to the limit is still slightly less, at $14.652, one week of Treasury auctions and will be time for Moody’s to justify again why the US is a quadruple A credit.  http://www.usagold.com/pete/newsviews/DebtCeiling.jpg 

 

 

 

 

Global Recession: Right Here, Right Now at Minyanville  Mike Mish Shedlock Sep 02, 2011 Why are we talking about avoiding recession when the global economy is clearly in one and fundamentals are horrendous?

 

  It's time to stop debating whether or not the US or Europe is headed into recession. The facts show the entire global economy is in recession.

Global Recession Supporting Data-Points


Ten Thoughts

1. Prior stimulus in the US is dead, having run its full course.
2. There is no incentive in the US Congress for more stimulus.
3. Austerity measures have yet to hit Italy and France.
4. Austerity measures will continue to bite Spain, Greece, Ireland.
5. Germany's export machine will die without the rest of Europe.
6. QE3 will fail much sooner than QE2 as interest rates already extremely accommodating.
7. Gold may respond well to competitive currency devaluation schemes.
8. The Eurozone is highly likely to breakup, although timing is unknown.
9. Global equities and commodities are priced for perfection.
10. Perfection is not happening.

 Talk of avoiding recession when the global economy is clearly in one and fundamentals are horrendous is sheer lunacy. For more, see Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis here.

 

U.S. Postal Service nearing bankruptcy as email asserts its dominance [Good! Let UPS take them over the usps is totally unreliable]

 

 

Albert Edwards Has Another Reason You Should Worry About Profits at The Wall Street Journal  Mark Gongloff

http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OB-PM490_margin_K_20110906142805.jpg

Brendan posted earlier about how Citigroup is getting worried about profit margins. Theyre not alone Soc Gens in-house Dr. Doom, Albert Edwards, has a note today with his own take on the subject.

Shockingly, Mr. Edwardss take is downbeat!

While Citi focused on the impact of government spending on corporate profits, Mr. Edwards zeroes in on the recent collapse in productivity and surge in labor costs and what they say about margins:

Last week the BLS revised the unit labor cost rise in Q2 up from 2.2% to 3.3% quarter over quarter. US non-farm business unit labour costs are now rising by 2% year over year. That is very bad news for profits. Bad news for equities. And because the pace of ULC is a key driver of inflation (upwards in this instance), it is bad news for an increasingly criticised and divided Fed.

Since labour costs overwhelmingly dominate corporate costs, trends in productivity are crucial to the pace of growth of company profits. If unit labour cost growth is below unit price inflation, then unit margins are expanding. This, together with unit sales growth (and the less important unit non-labour costs), arithmetically determine profit growth.

Typically, productivity growth tends to ebb and flow with the economic cycle i.e. productivity tends to rise as the economy accelerates and vice versa. Therefore unit labour costs tend to fall sharply early in economic recoveries (as has happened recently), but typically begin to rise and eventually exceed output price inflation later in the cycle.

When unit labour costs start to rise quicker than output prices, as is the case now, this tends to exert an upward pressure on inflation as companies try to maintain margins. The pass-through of this upward pressure on inflation is largely determined by the pace of the cycle. If demand is robust, inflation will rise. If demand is weak and companies cannot pass on cost increases, margins and profits get crushed. That is the tipping point we have now reached.

And Wall Street analysts, in a truly shocking development, actually seem to be paying attention, Mr. Edwards writes:

[W]e should not be surprised at the pace of deterioration in analyst earnings optimism: in fact we have seen a near record rate of decline in US estimates over the past six months. In Europe things are even worse! As Andrew Lapthorne shows in this week’’s Global Equity Market Arithmetic, European (ex UK) the level of analyst optimism has now dived to 24%, a level only ever reached in recession.

 

 

 

Why Every Investor Needs to Time the Market Breakout  In tumultuous times conventional wisdom suggests buying then holding high quality, blue chip, dividend paying stocks for stability. The big idea is to avoid "timing the market" by extending the time frame beyond the current day, month, year or even decade. The value/yield camp tends to view volatile markets, such as that of 2011, as a chance to add to a portfolio while flighty "traders" panic in and out of stocks.The mathematical fact is those who have bought and held stocks over the last 3, 5 or even 10 years have lost money, either on an absolute basis or relative to inflation. Missing the 50% drop of 2008 didn't require intuition, charting or sophisticated financial analysis. Selling the news when Bear Stearns got sold for $2 got you out of the S&P500 well over 1,250. Selling the news of the Lehman collapse got you out of stocks well over 1,200 on the S&P. Once out, investors had two years to get back into the market below where they made their exit. I don't particularly regard stepping aside as trading; it's common sense. If investing in this manner is a mug's game, buying and holding forever, putting Blue Chips in a drawer forever, or dollar-cost averaging have been tantamount to financial self-abuse…’   This Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold and Hope http://www.albertpeia.com/endofbuyandhold.htm Brian Rezny June 03, 2010 Buy and hold investing is a popular strategy, and the thinking is straightforward: in the long run, the market will offer returns, in spite of short-term volatility. In theory, this is a sensible idea. Unfortunately, this approach does not work in todays market. Why not? Of course, the market is down for this month. But thats not the reason this is not a buy and hold environment. Its not just about the recent correction, or the end of a market rally. The current trend fits into a much bigger picture and its a picture of a long-term bear market. Secular markets are long-term trends, typically lasting about 18 years…’  [ This was true and among my conclusions even back in 1977 when I did my MBA thesis: MBA Finance, NYU GBA, 1977. It most assuredly is glaringly true today.  Fed Economists Predict A 15 Year Bear Market For Stocks Aug 23rd, 2011 News (BusinessInsider)  ,  A Decade of Decline in Equity Markets Faisal Humayun [ This is a must read and explains how the markets been artificially propped, the dow relative to hard assets, ie., gold (dow/gold ratio), has actually crashed 78%, and comparable prospects for the next decade, etc.. ‘…The Dow Jones Index was trading at 11,357 levels at the beginning of the year 2000. More than a decade later (as of beginning July 2011), the index is at 12582 (11,297). Therefore, the index has gained 11%  (-0-% as of this day) in the last ten years…’ Yet, the inflationary dollar (declining) debasement rate was 31%. (-31%) {See the inflation calculator infra and thats just the government (inflation) numbers reality is much worse!} Meanwhile, the frauds on wall street are churnin and earnin like never before at lightning computerized speeds enabling the high-frequency trades that are commissioned in unprecedented large volumes; a big net negative in real economic terms.]   



 

Prepare For Recession And Bear Market at Forbes Sy Harding, Brace yourself for a recession.

Central banks around the world seem to be doing so, making little effort to prevent it this time around, resigned to letting the business cycle play out.

Stock markets around the world also seem to be doing so. In anticipation of economic slowdowns that wont slide all the way into recessions, stock markets normally decline only into corrections (declines of less than 20%). But they plunge into bear markets when recessions loom.

And global stock markets outside of the U.S. are already in full-fledged bear markets. That includes 10 of the worlds 12 largest economies, the exceptions being only the U.S. and Canada.

In order of the size of their economies, at the recent August lows the stock market in China, the worlds second largest economy, was down 23% from its November peak, Japan down 21%, Germany down 30%, France down 29%, the United Kingdom down 21%, Brazil down 33%, Italy down 39%, India down 25%, Russia down 28%, and Spain down 29%. The exceptions were the U.S. and Canada, which at their August lows were down only 16% (the Dow) and 18% respectively.

The recession and bear market are coming to the U.S. too, and may have already arrived.

You can be sure of that because its been one world economically for years, and historically global economies and stock markets tended to always move in and out of recessions and bear markets together even before their dependence on each other became so pronounced.

You can be sure of it because central banks seem willing to let it play out this time as in days of old, without intervention.

In the financial crisis of 2007-2008, it took a massive coordinated effort by global central banks to pull the world back from the brink of what would have been a total global financial collapse.

But when their economies began to slow again in 2010, without the world being on the brink of financial Armageddon, major nations outside of the U.S. were content to let the business cycle play out normally, arguing against the U.S. Feds decision to jump in with its QE2 stimulus efforts.

Indeed, while the Fed was making that massive monetary easing effort, central banks in Asia, Europe, and South America were tightening monetary policies and raising interest rates to ward off rising inflation, and to tackle the government debt crises created by their 2008-2009 bailout efforts.

The Feds QE2 effort pushed a flood of additional dollars into the global financial system, spiking the prices of commodities and paper assets like stocks, but had no lasting effect on even the U.S. economy.

This year, as global economies again slow significantly, central banks outside of the U.S. again seem content, or at least resigned, to letting the business and economic cycle play out, even though it likely means a global recession.

They refrain from saying anything too negative that might make matters worse, but for instance, this week the central bank of Brazil, which actually has one of the worlds strongest and fastest growing economies (but highest rate of inflation), warned that this downturn in global economies will not be as severe as in 2008-2009, but will be more prolonged.

The Financial Times reported Friday that As the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Developments forecasts showed on Thursday, the near-term economic outlook for the Group of Seven is dire, yet the mood is one of resignation. . . . Finance ministers across the G7 are searching for ways to explain their lack of likely coordinated action.

And even in the U.S., the Federal Reserve has been clearly transparent about its reluctance to intervene this time.

With the economy far weaker than it was when the Fed intervened with QE2 last year, Fed Chairman Bernanke continues to say the Fed has some tools it can use if necessary, but will wait and see. In his most recent speeches he cautioned that the Fed is limited in what it can do anyway, and called for Congress to step up to the plate.

Thursday evening, President Obama did call for Congress to step up to the plate and pass his $450 billion jobs bill.

But even if the proposal should get through the political grinder of the grid-locked Congress, it would be too little too late by the time it could be implemented.

So prepare for a recession and bear market.

Hopefully investors learned from the 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 bear markets that Wall Streets advice to diversify into defensive stocks wont do it. As Ive shown you in previous columns, so-called defensive stocks, defensive because they pay high dividends or have been around a long time, are dragged down just as far as any in a bear market.

Back in the old days the call of successful investors in times like this was that cash is king. Even receiving little to no interest income on cash was better than experiencing a 30 to 40% loss.

These days investors are better served. The availability of inverse mutual funds and inverse exchanged-traded funds, designed to move up when markets move down, make them the new king in bear markets. Cash may be better than losses, but the opportunities for 30% profits while others are experiencing 30% losses are even better.

In the interest of full disclosure, I and my subscribers have already taken double-digit profits from positions in the ProShares Short S&P 500 etf, symbol SH, and ProShares Short Russell 2000 etf, symbol RWM, and were looking at others.

 

 

4 Bearish Mega Trends   Simon Maierhofer, September 9, 2011, ‘In 2004, Daniel Simons of the University of Illinois and Christopher Chabris of Harvard University conducted an experiment that was as simple as it was fascinating.

If you want to be part of the experiment, watch this video before you read any further.

The Experiment

There are two groups of three people each. One group is wearing black shirts, the other group white shirts. The assignment is to watch how many times the players wearing white, pass the basketball.

If you counted 15, you are correct. But more importantly, did you notice the gorilla? While you were counting passes, a woman dressed in a gorilla suit walked slowly across the scene, stopped to face the camera and thumped her chest.

Half of the people watching the video with the intent of counting passes did not see the gorilla. The experiment illustrates the phenomenon of unintentional blindness. This condition, also known as perceptual blindness, prevents people from perceiving things that are in plain sight.

For most of 2010-11 Wall Street was so enamored by the magical powers of QE2 that it forgot about the 800-pound gorilla - the economy that wasn't improving. In fact, the economy continued deteriorating in plain sight.

There are five bearish mega trends that may draw stock prices much lower over the coming years. Here are the five mega trends (and what will make stocks rally in between).

U.S. Deficit

For a moment, take a mental journey with me back in time. We are now in early 2008. The major indexes a la S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI), and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) are slowly coming off their all-time high, but the collapse of Lehman Brothers has not yet hit the news.

Unbeknownst to most, the perfect financial storm is brewing. Once the storm hits, it is much worse than anyone expected. But, the eventual damage is limited. Why? Because, the government steps up and does what it takes to prevent the financial system from failing.

Today has the feel of early 2008. Another perfect storm may be brewing. Will the government be there to do what it takes to support 'too big to fail?' No! In 2008 financial companies were in trouble. In 2011 entire countries (look at Europe and the U.S.) are struggling to escape the grip of delinquency.

A Decelerating Generation

Starting in 2011, more than 10,000 baby boomers a day will turn 65, a pattern that will continue for the next 19 years. This dry humor cartoon encapsulates the problem retirees' face today:

Two older gentlemen are having a drink. One says: 'As a Baby Boomer, I never thought the boom would be the sound of my retirement accounts collapsing.' He'd like to sip on a nice Scotch while enjoying a steak, but has to settle for water and free bread sticks at Olive Garden.

Most retirees still haven't recovered from the lost decade. Let's make the term lost decade more personal. A 55 year old with $100,000 in his retirement account at the beginning of the year 2000 and a 6% projected rate of return, would have $201,419 today.

The S&P trades 20% below its 2000 level. Courtesy of the lost decade, that $100,000 in the year 2000 has turned into $80,000 today (perhaps less if invested too aggressively). In other words, many retirees may have to get by on less than half of their expected nest egg. In addition, their home, rather than being an asset (many considered it an ATM a few years ago), has turned into a liability.

It doesn't take much imagination to see that strapped retirees are bad for economic growth. When the focus is on survival rather than pleasure, sectors like technology (NYSEArca: XLK - News), retail (NYSEArca: XRT - News), and consumer discretionary (NYSEArca: XLY - News) suffer.

In addition, baby boomers that have been buying stocks for decades (think of all the 401k money) are now turning into sellers of stock.

Low Interest Rates

Low interest rates are great for the U.S. government because it reduces debt payments on Treasuries and businesses wanting to expand. Unfortunately, businesses don't feel like expanding or even hiring and for pretty much everyone else low interest rates are negative.

Some try to sell the idea that low interest rates are good for stocks (NYSEArca: VTI - News) because money will flow from low interest bonds into stocks in an effort to get a better return.

The chart below plots the Nikkei against Japan's version of the discount rate. The discount rate has been below 1% since 1995. At the same time the Nikkei has dropped from above 20,000 to below 10,000. Much of this happened during a raging global bull market. Imagine what a global bear market can do to U.S. stocks.

                    https://www.etfguide.com//contributor/UserFiles/8/Image/yahoo%20japan%20discount.gif

Low interest rates are a double negative because they reduce available spending for retirees who need to get as much income as possible to survive.

Coming to a Head

The above three bearish trends were highlighted in detail in various 2011 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletters. Due to those, and other mega trends, the Newsletter has been expecting a major market top.

For much of 2011 however, the expectation of a major market top was postponed until the ideal target range was reached. The April 3 ETF Profit Strategy update included a precise range for a major market top: 'In terms of resistance levels, the 1,369 - 1,382 range is a strong candidate for a reversal of potentially historic proportions. '

Why was S&P 1,369 - 1,382 a candidate for a reversal of historic proportions? The chart below, published by the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter in March and many times since, has the answer.

                   https://www.etfguide.com//contributor/UserFiles/8/Image/yahoo%20M%20pattern.gif

What you see is a giant M, or head and shoulders top. The right shoulder was made up of the parallel trend channel that connects the 2002 and 2009 low, with the 2000 high. In April/May the upper line of the trend channel ran through 1,377. Additional resistance was provided by Fibonacci levels at 1,389 and 1,369.

On May 2, the S&P briefly spiked as high as 1,370.58 before retreating and eventually dropping 18% in twelve trading days (July 25 - August 9). Once the S&P dropped below the 200-day SMA it entered free fall territory.

The July 28 ETF Profit Strategy update warned that: 'A break below the 200-day SMA and the trend line may trigger panic selling. One way to avoid missing out on a potentially big opportunity is to use the 200-day SMA at 1,284 as delineation between bullish and bearish bets - buy as long as the 200-day SMA serves as support, sell if it becomes resistance.'

From top to bottom (once the bottom is in), the S&P will have fallen more than 250 points. No doubt this kind of move validates a counter trend rally. When and where will this rally start and how high will it go?

The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter provides a detailed outlook for the remainder of 2011 along with the target for a 2011 bottom and 2011 top. The Newsletter doesn't promise to get every turn of the market right, but it will identify the money-losing gorillas. Just imagine if you sold your holdings at the target range for a major top.

 

 

Zero Job Growth in August Supports Recession Case ETFguide.com

 

 

Why to Sell When Wall Street Says 'Buy' and Vice Versa ETFguide.com

 

S&P 1,100 And Lower - More Likely Than you Think Simon Maierhofer, On Friday September 9, 2011, ‘The S&P has been chopping around aimlessly for nearly a month. Wednesday ETF Profit Strategy update explained the reason and the outcome as follows:

'The aimless sideways trading and lack of powerful and predominantly one-directional rally suggests that the S&P is stuck in a mild up side correction to be followed by new lows. Range bound trading lulls investors into a false sense of security.'

Here are more than a handful of reasons why new lows are likely.

Up Trend Broken

The chart below shows the Dow Jones Industrials (DJI: ^DJI) since the March 2009 bottom. The DJIA weekly candle low touched the yellow trend line on different occasions before breaking through it on August 2.

The S&P 500 (SNP: ^GSPC) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) adhered to a similar but not as pronounced trend line. But the S&P also had a key experience on August 2. The August 2 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter update observed regarding a head and shoulders top that the: 'S&P is about to break below the neckline around 1,249. A break below this neckline would unlock a measured target of S&P 1,140.'

The fact that both the DJIA and S&P 500 broke through necklines that have held for over two years is less than encouraging.

In addition, the S&P's May 2 high at 1,370 occurred right within the sweet spot of a major market top. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter published the chart below on various occasions throughout March, April and May and preached that S&P 1,369 - 1,382 is the ideal target range for a major market top (chart below was featured in the April 5 ETF Profit Strategy update).

                                         https://www.etfguide.com/images/PDNewsletter_Images/5%20-%20April%203%20TF.jpg                           

Death Cross

The death cross is one of the most talked about technical events, that's why I don't put too much stock in it. However, there are two interesting facts about previous death crosses.

The 2000 and 2007 death cross occurred about three days before the S&P embarked on its next leg down. The 2010 death cross was actually a buy signal. However, it occurred after the S&P and DJIA bounced off the yellow trend line (this time the trend line was broken).

Seasonality

August, September, and October is the most bearish stretch of the year. September and October sport negative performance even in the pre-election year.

Sentiment

From S&P 1,370 on May 2 to S&P 1,258 on June 16, the S&P shed 112 points and sentiment measured by Investors Intelligence (II) and the American Association for Individual Investors (AAII) turned deeply bearish. The June 16 ETF Profit Strategy update took that as a queue to buy (long positions were closed at S&P 1,340).

From S&P 1,353 on July 7 to S&P 1,102 on August 9 the S&P lost 251 points, yet the II sentiment poll registered the second most bullish reading since the first week of May. AAII and II polls are often considered the 'dumb money.' If the 'dumb money' views last Wednesday's low as a buying opportunity, the 'smart money' should be suspicious.

VIX Pattern

If you have the charting capabilities, take a moment and plot the VIX (NYSEArca: VXX - News) against the S&P for the month of September - November 2008 and April - July 2010. If you don't have the time you may simply look at the chart below.

                                         https://www.etfguide.com/images/PDNewsletter_Images/yahoo%20-%20vix%20pattern.gif           

What we've seen in 2008 and 2010 is that a VIX peak did not coincide with the S&P bottom. The S&P bottom actually occurred against a lower VIX reading. If this pattern continues, we will see lower lows.

The August 14 ETF Profit Strategy update includes a detailed analysis of the VIX pattern, along with the time frame and target level for an expected turn.

The Script

Via more or less accidental chart surfing I found a striking resemblance between the 2007 market top and the May 2011 top.  This moved me to state in the July 17 Profit Strategy update that:

'There is a similar trend line and a triple top above the trend line. A break below that trend line could be a precursor of bad things. Next week the trend line will be at about 1,262.'

The S&P sliced through that trend line on August 4 and fell an additional 12% within the next four days (this ascending trend line is now a big target and resistance).

The August 7 Profit Strategy update revisited that script and concluded this: 'We now have a rough script; let's see how much lip the actors will add during the live performance (I.e. S&P downgrade).

The two main things I have taken away from the 2007 script are:

1) There will be a new low.

2) There will be a powerful counter trend rally to around 1,xxx (reserved for subscribers).'

Short-term Outlook

Wednesday's (September 7) ETF Profit Strategy update advised aggressive investors to short the S&P 500 as soon as it breaks below 1,173. This doesn't mean that stocks can't go higher, but shorting the S&P against major support/resistance (with a tight stop-loss above) is the only conservative way to assure participation in the next leg down…’

 

 

Ominous Bear Flag Pattern Suggests S&P 500 At 1,000  Scott Redler Talk of a possible Greek debt default grew louder as the day wore on Friday, with several euro zone officials commenting that they expect a default over the weekend. Naturally, the markets didnt respond positively to the news. Combine that with the terror alerts in New York City and Washington, D.C., this weekend for the 10th anniversary of 9/11, and it was a recipe for heavy selling.

The Dow closed off more than 300 points to finish another wildly volatile week, and based on the action and news, we could be headed for another huge Monday morning gap down. However, it was difficult to chase shorts at the end of the day at such oversold levels, because if the Greek default doesnt come to fruition and there is no major terrorist attack, those short positions would likely be in serious pain.

The news of a possible Greek default, which would be a historic first-time event, overshadowed any individual stock stories today. In isolation, the default of a relatively small Eurozone economy would not be the end of the world, but with other, larger Euro economies standing on extremely shaky ground (especially Italy), such an event could trigger a domino effect unlike anything ever witnessed in modern human history.

Conventional wisdom would tell you that gold shot through the roof on a day like this, but whispers about potential margin hikes pushed GLD to a lower open and seemed to keep the metal at bay. Even with the market tanking, GLD had a hard time ticking higher.

Technical Take

If you take a step back and look at the SPY chart on a daily and even weekly time frame, the obvious pattern that jumps out at you is a wide, but well-defined, bear flag. Previously, we noted the well-defined head and shoulders pattern that forecast the deep correction.

The only strategies that have worked, and provided limited risk, over the past month have been buying and selling extreme moves in both directions. Large gap downs on Monday and Tuesday had investors extremely bearishthe most bearish since September 2007which gave way to a steep short squeeze.

As weve seen before, that low-volume bounce/short squeeze was only transitory, as Ben Bernanke would put it. The oversold bounce we saw early in the week actually turned out to be a negative event for the bulls, because it allowed the market to work off its severely oversold condition and prime for another plunge.

After such a harsh move lower, which began around the time of the debt ceiling debate and S&P downgrade, it is natural for there to be some indecision in the indices. However, nobody would have expected the range to remain as wide as it has been. Resolution to this pattern will come at one point or another, and based in the in-bound move, there will be a powerful secondary move (more than likely to the downside). The lower end of the channel also lines up with the 200-week Moving Average, which will be another crucial technical level.

The measured move could take the S&P down to the 1,000 range if a worst-case type scenario plays out, which would involve a Greek debt default that triggered a domino effect in Europe that could likely trigger defaults in at least a few other PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) nations as well.

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/greatspeculations/files/2011/09/SP-bear-flag-1024x675.png

Technically, we are also seeing some clues that tell us that all is not well with Mr. Market. Nearly every sector is currently mired in a bearish technical formation; there are no rays of light. The one area of relative strength early in the week, is starting to look ready to break down as well.

One clue we look to first is high-beta tech. If the market is healthy under the hood, the leading high-beta tech stocks will usually hold up well. We saw some relative strength early in the week from the likes of Apple Inc. (AAPL), Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) and Baidu.com Inc. (BIDU), but none of them were able to withstand the force of todays drop. AAPL and BIDU in particular look to be forming wedge continuation patterns, which generally resolve to the downside.

During the formation of the head and shoulders pattern, for example, the Industrials (XLI) and the Homebuilders (XHB) started to break down first, which signaled to us that the rest of the market wasnt far behind.

When selling is isolated and weak sectors drag the market down, it can be considered a buying opportunity for strong stocks. When selling is more across-the-board, its a sign to get of the way.

The measured move of the head and shoulder played out almost to a T (as you can see on the chart). Technical patterns arent always perfect, but they provide a good roadmap. Another thing you have to understand about technical analysis too is that it is largely a self-fulfilling prophecy. Moves in the market often play out simply because a large group of traders and investors are reacting based on the same set of rules.

Before the break of the head and shoulders, you had the more mainstream media start talking about the scary head and shoulders top pattern, which got both Main St. and Wall St. bearish. Now, everyone in the industry is talking about this ominous bear flag pattern, which is likely to make its rounds in the more mainstream media this weekend (along with the news about Greece).

Final Word

While doomsday talk is rampant right nowbetween a domino effect of European sovereign debt defaults to 9/11 anniversary attacksas traders we never trade based on assumptions. The traders who are consistent and profitable over the long haul are the ones who, first and foremost, limit their risk. At the end of the day today, for example, there is enormous risk for both longs and shorts.

If Greece does default and/or there is some sort of attack on NYC/DC, the market is sure to open sharply lower on Monday. However, if one or both of those events do not occur, shorts would be in for a massive squeeze. After such a harsh down day like today, it is best to take any profits you may have generated and take a firm seat on the sidelines.

Even if you are not involved in the weekend trade, there will be tremendous opportunity over the next few weeks to take advantage of this historic market volatility. Great opportunity comes with great risk, so be sure to, more than ever, stick to your personal trading rules and dont make big bets you cant afford to pay off.

 

 

Unprecedented Monthly Volume Sell-Off Suggests Now's the Time to Take Shelter at Minyanville Kevin A. Tuttle Sep 12, 2011 ‘Do not concern yourself if the market goes up today, tomorrow, or a month from now. The risk of entering is not worth the reward.

Over the weekend I had the pleasure of speaking with a very prominent European money manager overseeing hundreds of billions about the "across-the-pond" financial crisis unwind and looming hazard of a potential domino-effect coming to fruition. Without rehashing the entire conversation, the consensus is not "if," its "when" will the developing pressure finally blow. He actually went so far as to say it could truly begin unraveling within the next few weeks considering the catalysts currently in play.

The intent of providing the conversation synopsis is not for sake of fear, but understanding the potential ramifications. About three years ago, in one of my firm's quarterly reports, we opined on a unique situation in regard to the GDP measurements of Global Nations. It stated the unprecedented growth statistics from the 56 nations tracked.
History is currently being made in the sense that all the globally tracked economic growth nations (56), every one 100%..., are showing expansion. This lead to my next comment If the economic cycle pendulum swings in both directions what would happen if the inverse occurred? Are 2011/2012 the years we are about to find out? Maybe thats somewhat extreme, but yet is it possible?

We at my firm do not pretend to be intelligent enough to figure out all the nuances, catalysts, causes and reasons why the markets could fall apart; we
ll leave it to the team of economists and officials to attempt to sort that out. What we do instead is try to determine when the storm is coming and how to take shelter, which brings me to my point: Now is the time. Take shelter! Do not concern yourself if the market goes up today, tomorrow or a month from now. Clarity is key! Would you sail your boat into rocky waters with a potential hurricane looming because of your love of sailing? Is the risk worth the reward? For some, maybe; but for most, probably not.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/LisaCatchJUNE2011/jo.jpg 

Since the "2011 Channel of Indecision" broke on August 4, the seas have picked up dramatically and have begun swallowing ships. The markets have never seen this type of monthly volume sell-off
47% above average (unprecedented), as seen in the monthly chart above. As Kenny Rogers put it so eloquently Know when to hold em and know when to fold em', know when to walk away, know when to run!

Editor's Note: Read more at Tuttle Asset Management.

 

 

What's the Long-Term Outlook for Stocks and The Economy? ETFguide   Simon Maierhofer, September 12, 2011, ‘The stock market's summer performance has been nothing but stunning. Seeing daily swings in excess of 4% has become as common as American fast food in China.

Sometimes it's helpful to step back and shift the focus from day-to-day changes to multi-decade trends. This kind of big picture evaluation shows whether events like this summer's meltdown are just a hiccup or confirmation of a long-term trend (change).

MORE THAN JUST A MULTI-DECADE FLUKE

Gradual changes are often so subtle that they are nearly invisible to the naked eye or novice observer. But, just because a change is gradual doesn't mean it's insignificant.

Let's take a look at the basic make up of the U.S. economy. A few decades ago, sweat-trenched U.S. manufacturing facilities were the most fertile, growth-producing environment on the planet. This growth was fueled by 'Made in America' products. The growth was organic and it was real.

The first red box in the chart below captures this period of powerful organic growth. It lasted from 1947 - 1966. During this period, GDP growth averaged 4.18%.

The second red box captures a period of growth fueled by low interest and financial engineering. During this period - from 1975 - 2000 - GDP growth averaged only 3.4%.

                                     https://www.etfguide.com//contributor/UserFiles/8/Image/Growth%20Periods%20Yahoo.gif

(The above chart was featured in the March 2011 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter)

The Only Original Dow Component, Not some Hot Tech Stock

General Electric (NYSE: GE - News), a company that prospered during both phases, aptly illustrates the difference between both periods.

Until the late 1960s, GE was known for manufacturing quality, American-made products like refrigerators, washing machines, stoves, light bulbs, and jet engines. GE manufactured real products, provided real jobs, and made real profits.

Starting in the 1980s GE changed its focus from blue collar manufacturing to white collar alchemy. GE ventured into television and high finance. GE's focus shifted from building quality products to financing purchases of competitor products. Ultimately, it went from manufacturing real products to building a financial house of cards.

In August 2000, GE traded as high as $60.5 a share. In 2009 it was as low as $5.73 - a 90% drop. Today, it's hovering around $15. As you ponder this change in valuation, keep in mind that GE is the only original Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI: ^DJI) component, not some hot today cold tomorrow tech stock.

A NEW TREND IS BORN ... AND KILLED

Financially engineered (artificial) profits appeared to be the best new thing since sliced bread. However, GDP growth since 2000 has dropped dramatically, now only 1.71%. The post-2007 meltdown shows that an economy cannot be built on the financial (NYSEArca: XLF - News) and banking (NYSEArca: KBE - News) sectors.

It also shows that an artificial bull market is much more receptive to huge corrections. We've had the 2000 tech bust (NYSEArca: XLK - News), the 2005 real estate (NYSEArca: IYR - News) debacle, the 2007/2008 deflation of the financial sector, and most recently the summer 2011 meltdown.

If you think financially engineered profits are bad, brace yourself for what lies ahead. The hopes for economic prosperity (perhaps even survival) rest on Facebook, Twitter, Groupon, LinkedIn, Netflix, and the like.

Social networking isn't a proven business model, yet Facebook has an estimated market cap larger than those of Boeing, Home Depot, Walt Disney, Dell, Hewlett Packard, Costco, or even Goldman Sachs.

Hewlett-Packard employs 325,000 people, Home Depot 300,000, Boeing 160,000. However, Facebook cuts pay checks to only about 1,000 lucky employees.  Welcome to the future of high corporate profit margins and even higher unemployment.

Groupon has an estimated value of $6-9 billion, but its recipe of success is to coax businesses into providing discounts of 50 - 90%. Groupon is a classic economic leach that benefits by sucking the profits out of its client base and teaching its subscribers to buy only at discount prices. Welcome to a future of shrinking small business profits.

THE STOCK MARKET AGREES

The big picture fundamental outlook appears less than confidence inspiring. What about the big picture technical outlook?

The chart below (although small in size due to upload limitations) was featured in the March ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter and provides a big picture technical forecast. In fact, it's about as 'big picture' as it gets.

                    https://www.etfguide.com//contributor/UserFiles/8/Image/yahoo%20M%20pattern.gif  

What you see is a giant bearish M pattern, it could even be considered a head and shoulders pattern. The neckline is formed by the 2002 and 2009 lows.

To determine an upside price target, we drew a parallel channel that connects the 2002 and 2009 lows with the 2000 high. The April 3 ETF Profit Strategy update said the following about this trend channel and other resistance levels:

'For the month of April this trend line will traverse through 1,377. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement is at 1,381.5. There is a fairly strong Fibonacci projection resistance at 1,369. In terms of resistance levels, the 1,369 - 1,382 range is a strong candidate for a reversal of potentially historic proportions.'

The S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) peaked on May 2 at 1,370.58 and has since lost as much as 269 points or 19%. The Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) has held up slightly better, but no matter how you slice it, the stock market has given up more than a year's worth of gains within a matter of weeks. The VIX (Chicago Options: ^VIX) spiked to the highest level in over a year.

In addition, all major U.S. indexes broke below a trend line that has provided support on nine different occasions since the March 2009 lows.

This doesn't prevent rallies. In fact, based on our research, we should see a sizeable rally soon. However, odds favor that the stock market's trend has changed from up to down…’

 

 

[video] Trader: Waiting for Treasury Bubble to Burst at TheStreet.com

 

Preparing for a Credit Crisis at Minyanville  John Mauldin’ “I am sure the Euro will oblige us to introduce a new set of economic policy instruments. It is politically impossible to propose that now. But some day there will be a crisis and new instruments will be created.”-- Romano Prodi, EU Commission President, December 2001

Prodi and the other leaders who forged the euro … knew a crisis would develop, as Milton Friedman and many others had predicted. They accepted that as the price of European unity. But now the payment is coming due, and it is far larger than they probably thought…

The Consequences of Austerity

The markets are pricing in an almost 100% certainty of a Greek default (OK, actually 91%), and the rumors in trading circles of a default this weekend by Greece are rampant. Bloomberg (and everyone else) reported that Germany is making contingency plans for the default. Of course, Greece has issued three denials today that I can count. I am reminded of that splendid quote from the British ’80s sitcom, Yes, Prime Minister: “Never believe anything until it’s been officially denied.”

Germany is assuming a 50% loss for their banks and insurance companies. Sean Egan (head of very reliable bond-analyst firm Egan-Jones) thinks the ultimate haircut will be closer to 90%. And that is just for Greece. More on the contagion factor below.

“The existence of a ‘Plan B’ underscores German concerns that Greece’s failure to stick to budget-cutting targets threatens European efforts to tame the debt crisis rattling the euro. German lawmakers stepped up their criticism of Greece this week, threatening to withhold aid unless it meets the terms of its austerity package, after an international mission to Athens suspended its report on the country’s progress.

“ ‘Greece is “on a knife’s edge,”’ German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told lawmakers at a closed-door meeting in Berlin on Sept. 7, a report in parliament’s bulletin showed yesterday. If the government can’t meet the aid terms, ‘it’s up to Greece to figure out how to get financing without the euro zone’s help,’ he later said in a speech to parliament.

“Schaeuble travelled to a meeting of central bankers and finance ministers from the Group of Seven nations in Marseille, France, today as they face calls to boost growth amid increasing threats from Europe’s debt crisis and a slowing global recovery.” (Bloomberg)


(There is an over/under betting pool in Europe on whether Schaeuble remains as Finance Minister much longer after this weekend’s G-7 meeting, given his clear disagreement with Angela Merkel. I think I take the under. Merkel is tough. Or maybe he decides to play nice. His press doesn’t make him sound like that type, though. They are playing high-level hardball in Germany.)

Anyone reading my letter for the last three years cannot be surprised that Greece will default. It is elementary school arithmetic. The Greek debt-to-GDP is currently at 140%. It will be close to 180% by year’s end (assuming someone gives them the money). The deficit is north of 15%. They simply cannot afford to make the interest payments. True market (not Eurozone-subsidized) interest rates on Greek short-term debt are close to 100%, as I read the press. Their long-term debt simply cannot be refinanced without Eurozone bailouts…

[Quick sidebar: If (when) the US goes into recession [We’re already in a recession!], have you thought about what the result will be? A recession of course means lower GDP, which will mean higher unemployment. That will increase costs due to increased unemployment and other government aid, and of course lower revenues as tax receipts (revenues) go down. Given the projections and path we are currently on, that means even higher deficits than we have now. If President Obama has his plan enacted, and if we go into a recession, we will see record-level deficits. Certainly over $1.5 trillion, and depending on the level of the recession, we could scare $2 trillion. Think the Tea Party will like that? Governments have less control than they think over these things. Ask Greece or any other country in a debt crisis how well they predicted their budgets.]

The Greeks were off by over 25%. And they are being asked to further cut their deficit by 4% or so every year for the next 3-4 years. That guarantees a full-blown depression. And it also means lower revenues and higher deficits, even at the reduced budget levels, which means they get further away from their goal, no matter how fast they run. They are now in a debt death spiral. There is no way out, short of Europe simply bailing them out for nothing, which is not likely.

Europe is going to deal with this Greek crisis. The problem is that this is the beginning of a string of crises and not the end. They do not appear, at least in public, to want to deal with the systemic problem of too much debt in all the peripheral countries…

Euro Breakup – The Consequences

The Euro Should Not Exist (Like This)

Under the current structure and with the current membership, the Euro does not work. Either the current structure will have to change, or the current membership will have to change.

Fiscal Confederation, Not Break-Up

Our base case with an overwhelming probability is that the Euro moves slowly (and painfully) towards some kind of fiscal integration. The risk case, of break-up, is considerably more costly and close to zero probability. Countries cannot be expelled, but sovereign states could choose to secede. However, popular discussion of the break-up option considerably underestimates the consequences of such a move.

The Economic Cost (Part 1)

The cost of a weak country leaving the Euro is significant. Consequences include sovereign default, corporate default, collapse of the banking system and collapse of international trade. There is little prospect of devaluation offering much assistance. We estimate that a weak Euro country leaving the Euro would incur a cost of around 9,500 to 11,500 per person in the exiting country during the first year. That cost would then probably amount to 3,000 to 4,000 per person per year over subsequent years. That equates to a range of 40% to 50% of GDP in the first year.

The Economic Cost (Part 2)

Were a stronger country such as Germany to leave the Euro, the consequences would include corporate default, recapitalization of the banking system and collapse of international trade. If Germany were to leave, we believe the cost to be around 6,000 to 8,000 for every German adult and child in the first year, and a range of 3,500 to 4,500 per person per year thereafter. That is the equivalent of 20% to 25% of GDP in the first year. In comparison, the cost of bailing out Greece, Ireland and Portugal entirely in the wake of the default of those countries would be a little over 1,000 per person, in a single hit.

The Political Cost

The economic cost is, in many ways, the least of the concerns investors should have about a break-up. Fragmentation of the Euro would incur political costs. Europes soft power influence internationally would cease (as the concept of Europe as an integrated polity becomes meaningless). It is also worth observing that almost no modern fiat currency monetary unions have broken up without some form of authoritarian or military government, or civil war.

Welcome to the Hotel California

Welcome to the Hotel California
Such a lovely place
Such a lovely face
They livin
it up at the Hotel California
What a nice surprise, bring your alibis

Last thing I remember, I was running for the door
I had to find the passage back to the place I was before
Relax, said the night man, We are programmed to receive.
You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave!

-- The Eagles, 1977

You can disagree with the UBS analysis in various particulars, but what it shows is that there is no free lunch. It is not a matter of pain or no pain, but of how much pain and how is it shared. And to make it more difficult, breaking up may cost more than to stay and suffer, for both weak and strong countries. There are no easy choices, no simple answers. Like the Hotel California, you can check in but you can
t leave! There are simply no provisions for doing so, or even for expelling a member.

The costs of leaving for Greece would be horrendous. But then so are the costs of staying. Choose wisely. Quoting again from the UBS report:

“… the only way for a country to leave the EMU in a legal manner is to negotiate an amendment of the treaty that creates an opt-out clause. Having negotiated the right to exit, the Member State could then, and only then, exercise its newly granted right. While this superficially seems a viable exit process, there are in fact some major obstacles.

Negotiating an exit is likely to take an extended period of time. Bear in mind the exiting country is not negotiating with the Euro area, but with the entire European Union. All of the legislation and treaties governing the Euro are European Union treaties (and, indeed, form the constitution of the European Union). Several of the 27 countries that make up the European Union require referenda to be held on treaty changes, and several others may choose to hold a referendum. While enduring the protracted process of negotiation, which may be vetoed by any single government or electorate, the potential secessionist will experience most or all of the problems we highlight in the next section (bank runs, sovereign default, corporate default, and what may be euphemistically termed civil unrest).

Leaving abruptly would result in a lengthy bank holiday and massive lawsuits and require the willingness to simply thumb your nose in the face of any European court, as contracts of all sorts would have to be voided. The Greek government would have to conveniently pass a law that would require all Greek businesses to pay back euro contracts in the new drachma, giving cover to their businesses, who simply could not find the euros to repay. But then, what about business going forward?

Medical supplies? Food?
The basics? You have to find hard currencies for what you dont produce in the country. Greece is not energy self-sufficient, importing more than 70% of its energy needs. They have a massive trade deficit, which would almost disappear, as who outside of Greece would want the new drachma? Banking? Parts for boats and business equipment? The list goes on and on. Commerce would slump dramatically, transportation would suffer, and unemployment would skyrocket.

If Germany were to leave, its export-driven economy would be hit very hard. It is likely that the
new mark would appreciate in value, much like the Swiss Franc, making exports from Germany even more costly. Not to mention potential trade barriers and the serious (and probably lengthy) recession that many of their export and remaining Eurozone trade partners would be thrown into. And German banks, which have loaned money in euros, would have depreciating assets and would need massive government support. (Just as they do now!)..

Ray Dalio and his brilliant economics team at Bridgewater have done a series of reports on a plan for Europe. Basically, it involves deciding which institutions must be saved (and at what cost) and letting the rest simply go their own way. If they are bankrupt, then so be it. Use the capital of Europe to save the important institutions (not shareholders or bondholders). Will they do it? Maybe.

The extraordinarily insightful and brilliant John Hussman recently wrote on a similar theme. He is a must-read for me. Quoting:

The global economy is at a crossroad that demands a decision whom will our leaders defend? One choice is to defend bondholders existing owners of mismanaged banks, unserviceable peripheral European debt, and lenders who misallocated capital by reaching for yield and fees by making mortgage loans to anyone with a pulse. Defending bondholders will require forced austerity in government spending of already depressed economies, continued monetary distortions, and the use of public funds to recapitalize poor stewards of capital. It will do nothing for job creation, foreclosure reduction, or economic recovery.

The alternative is to defend the public by focusing on the reduction of unserviceable debt burdens by restructuring mortgages and peripheral sovereign debt, recognizing that most financial institutions have more than enough shareholder capital and debt to their own bondholders to absorb losses without hurting customers or counterparties but also recognizing that properly restructuring debt will wipe out many existing holders of mismanaged financials and will require a transfer of ownership and recapitalization by better stewards. That alternative also requires fiscal policy that couples the willingness to accept larger deficits in the near term with significant changes in the trajectory of long-term spending.

In game theory, there is a concept known as Nash equilibrium (following the work of John Nash). The key feature is that the strategy of each player is optimal, given the strategy chosen by the other players. For example, I drive on the right / you drive on the right is a Nash equilibrium, and so is I drive on the left / you drive on the left. Other choices are fatal.

Presently, the global economy is in a low-level Nash equilibrium where consumers are reluctant to spend because corporations are reluctant to hire; while corporations are reluctant to hire because consumers are reluctant to spend. Unfortunately, simply offering consumers some tax relief, or trying to create hiring incentives in a vacuum, will not change this equilibrium because it does not address the underlying problem. Consumers are reluctant to spend because they continue to be overburdened by debt, with a significant proportion of mortgages underwater, fiscal policy that leans toward austerity, and monetary policy that distorts financial markets in a way that encourages further misallocation of capital while at the same time starving savers of any interest earnings at all.

We cannot simply shift to a high-level equilibrium (consumers spend because employers hire, employers hire because consumers spend) until the balance sheet problem is addressed. This requires debt restructuring and mortgage restructuring. While there are certainly strategies (such as property appreciation rights) that can coordinate restructuring without public subsidies, large-scale restructuring will not be painless, and may result in market turbulence and self-serving cries from the financial sector about global financial meltdown. But keep in mind that the global equity markets can lose $4-8 trillion of market value during a normal bear market. To believe that bondholders simply cannot be allowed to sustain losses is an absurdity. Debt restructuring is the best remaining option to treat a spreading cancer. Other choices are fatal.

(Click here for the rest of the article.)

You think the worlds central banks and main institutions are not worried? They are pulling back from bank debt in Europe, as are US money-market funds. (Note: I would check and see what your money-market funds are holding how much European bank debt and to whom? While they are reportedly reducing their exposure, there is some $1.2 trillion still in euro-area institutions that have PIIGS exposure.)

Look at the following graph from the St. Louis Fed. It is the amount of deposits at the US Fed from foreign official and international accounts, at rates that are next to nothing. It is higher now than in 2008. What do they know that you don’t?

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/LisaCatchJUNE2011/fred1.jpg

The Slow March to Recession in the US..

John Hussman, in the same report, offers the chart below, which is a variant on themes I have highlighted in past issues, but with his own personal twist. It is a combination of four Fed indices and four ISM reports. And it has been reliable as a predictor of recessions – one of which it strongly suggests we are either in or heading into.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/LisaCatchJUNE2011/fred2.jpg

And recent revisions to economic data suggest that companies are going to have even more trouble making those powerhouse earnings that are being estimated. As Albert Edwards of Societe Generale reports this week:

“… at the start of 2011, productivity trends took a remarkable turn for the worse especially compared to what was initially reported. An initial estimate that Q1 productivity grew by 1.8% was transformed to show a decline of 0.6%. A slight 0.7% rise in Q1 ULC (unit labor costs) was transformed to show a staggering surge of 4.8%! In addition to that 4.8% rise, ULC rose a further 2.2% in Q2. But the news gets even worse Last week the BLS revised the ULC rise in Q2 up from 2.2% to 3.3% QoQ. US non-farm business unit labor costs are now rising by 2% yoy. That is very bad news for profits. Bad news for equities. And because the pace of ULC is a key driver of inflation (upwards in this instance), it is bad news for an increasingly criticized and divided Fed.

Preparing for a Credit Crisis

There is so much that could push us into another 2008 Lehman-type credit crisis..

I did an interview with good friends David Galland and Doug Casey of Casey Research yesterday. They are decidedly more bearish than I am, so wanted an optimist to sit on their panel. But they forced me to admit that some of my optimism depends on the probability of US political leaders doing the right thing. ..

But whether you want to make it 50-50 to 70-30 or (pick a number), there is a reasonable prospect of another credit crisis. So what should you do?

First, think back to 2008. Were you liquid enough? Did you have enough cash? If not, then think about raising that cash now. When the crisis hits, you have to sell what you can for what you can get, not what you want for reasonable prices
…’

 

 

Don't Trust Wall Street and this Market  ETFguide  [ I couldn’t say this better myself! Take heed! My sentiments exactly, except far worse is in store! ] Simon Maierhofer, September 13, 2011, ‘The chicken is clueless about the egg's fate. Will it hatch or become an omelet?

Wall Street is clueless about their forecasts, will they 'hatch' or become egg on their face? Who cares; as long as it sounds good at the time, Wall Street's opinions are promoted by the media. Is this a haphazard approach? Judge for yourself.

The most recent Wall Street blunder was the over emphasis on positive earnings in April. Here are some of the headlines Wall Street and the financial media featured late April 2011:

Morgan Stanley shares rise as earnings beat estimates

Stocks, commodities rise as earnings top estimates

Leading U.S. indicators, consumer confidence gain as fuel costs discounted

World revs up U.S. profits

The Global economy is improving

The S&P breaks out

The Dow's going to 20,000

Sales growth the big surprise on Wall Street

Buffett says odds of another U.S. banking crisis low

Equities finally seeing light on the economy

Stocks find sea of tranquility

Flawed Reasoning

The chart below, featured in the September 2010 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter, reveals the flawed reasoning behind Wall Street's expectations. It plots Earnings per Share (EPS) against GDP and U-6 unemployment numbers.

                https://www.etfguide.com//contributor/UserFiles/8/Image/EPS%20Growth%20Yahoo.gif

Notice how earnings for Q1, Q2, and Q3 2011 were supposed to reach a new all-time high. There were at least four reasons why record high EPS estimates were not long-term bullish:

1) GDP was contracting, U-6 (and every other measure of unemployment) did not signal a recovery. Every spike in EPS would be temporary and unsustainable.

2) EPS estimates are just a projection and are about as valuable as an un-hatched egg.

3) The last time EPS reached an all-time high was in Q2 2007. We all know what happened thereafter.

4) EPS or P/E ratios can be distorted via financial trickery. Financials (NYSEArca: XLF - News) and banks (NYSEArca: KBE - News) took advantage of this when accounting rule FASB 157 was changed on April 2, 2009. This allowed banks to hide trillions of dollars of unrealized mortgage losses in an accounting loophole that doesn't affect their income statement and earnings. Thus some of banks' losses were included in earnings numbers.

The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter's conclusion was simple and straight to the point: 'Buying at current prices with the expectation of long-term gains is almost certain to deliver despair and tears.'

Proceed With Caution

P/E ratios or EPS aren't a short-term timing tool and didn't prevent stocks from rallying since the above analysis was featured in the September ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter.

Nevertheless, a major market top was expected. The April 3 ETF Profit Strategy update put it succinctly this way: 'In terms of resistance levels, the 1,369 - 1,382 range is a strong candidate for a reversal of potentially historic proportions. Bullish bets should be watched very carefully, especially once stocks move above 1,356.'

The Summer 2011 meltdown erased all gains going back as far as December 2009. Yes, over 18 months of gains were eliminated within a matter of weeks.

Financial Serial Offender

If Wall Street was subject to the 'three strikes you're out' rule, there wouldn't be any financial offices in New York. By now it's common knowledge that Wall Street was overly optimistic in 2007 - right before the financial collapse - and overly pessimistic at the March 2009 lows - the beginning of a 100% + rally for the major indexes a la S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC).

More recent financial offenses include Wall Street's ill-advised fascination with silver in late April. On April 27 the Wall Street Journal ran a front-page article entitled 'Silver rush spreads to stock market.' The commentary read as follows: 'The metals are increasingly considered attractive as a permanent store of value that doesn't diminish like paper currencies.'…’

 

 

Congress budget agency warns panel of economic ills

 

Nearly 1 in 6 Americans in poverty, Census says

 

Growth Stocks Look Pricey. Favor Free Cash Firms with glowing growth projections have gotten expensive.

 

Cisco cuts long-term sales growth forecast [ And just when I was about to say that american technology is horrific, overrated but leading the charge higher on wall street because sell the sizzle works better with tech since most dont understand it. Actually, american tech at most is different color hula hoops! ]

 

International alarm over euro zone crisis grows

 

Why Can't Wall Street Be Honest With The Public?at Forbes [ Lets not be naïve here If the public knew even half of the truth, theyd be seeking to hang wall street from the yardarms, drawn and quartered they would be, etc.. Yes, hung, drawn and quartered. If caught while yachting on their yachts on taxpayer dime, theyd be keelhauled. There is really no limit to the well placed, well deserved antipathy for the frauds on wall street who should be prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. ]  

 

Venture capital veteran Perkins sees danger ahead

 

These Wall Street Firms are About to Start Firing People Like Crazy By Business Insider September 04 2011 ( archived file )

 

Same Alan Greenspan Who Warned Against Budget Surplus Now Warns About Deficit  [ Yeah! One of the many symptoms of senile dementia, with a strong measure of incompetence to boot (greenspun has a long history of incompetent missteps which through self-promotion, quid pro quos, and a general ubiquity of pervasive ignorance, has gone unscrutinized and unreported. Hes really been that bad!) ]  Mark Gongloff

 


ETF Redemptions Highest Since 2008: Report ETF Trends 

 

 

Stock Market Secret Word of the Day Is 'Delusion' at The Wall Street Journal  Paul Vigna  Once again, markets are eagerly swallowing the soothing words of European leaders, just as they have swallowed the soothing words of Chinese officials, Tim Geithner, etc., etc.

The Dow is up about 190 points, the S&P is up 1.8%, and the Nasdaq is up 2%, after the Conference Call to Save the Universe ended with all sides agreeing that Greece should never leave the eurozone and was doing what it could to get its next bailout fix.

Peter Boockvar at Miller Tabak is not impressed:

Bottom line, Greece is likely going to get its next 8 billion-euro tranche in 2 weeks but apparently Merkel, Sarkozy and Papandreou still dont like paying attention to the bond market, where the 1 year [note]  in Greece is yielding 141.8%, the 2 year is yielding 74.5% and the 10 year is yielding 25.7%.

This says of course that the only lifeline the Greek government has is thru the generosity of its neighbors as they have almost zero chance of paying back in full all that is owed.

I mentioned Merkel being in fantasyland yesterday and delusion is the word today that comes to mind after seeing these Greek headlines.

One would think at this point that Greece would want a more pronounced debt restructuring in order to slash their debt instead of playing this game of pretend because theyre afraid to hurt the feelings of bondholders.



Zoellick: World economy in new danger zone 

 

Geithner: Economy In “An Early Stage” Of Crisis Sep 14th, 2011 08:47 by News  (RealClearPolitics) — Jim Cramer, CNBC host: “Now let’s talk about the fact that you said the economy is weak. You put out a jobs plan. The New York Times today basically gives its obituary. ‘Tax plan for jobs bill.’ Familiar ring. Meaning the GOP will not back this. Is this dead on arrival?”

Tim Geithner, U.S. Secretary of Treasury: Absolutely not. I think that theres no reason now for the Congress of the United States not to act to help strengthen growth in the near term. Its the conservative, prudent, responsible thing to do. You can think of it as protection against Europe.

Cramer: Okay.

Geithner: You can think of it as insurance against weaker growth going forward. And you got to think about the alternatives. If Congress or Washington is incapable of acting, then policy will be damaging to growth because what youll have is a deeper, steeper contraction in fiscal support than is prudent for an economy at this early stage of the crisis given the shocks we face. You know, life is about choices. Life is about alternatives. [source] PG View: While this may be a significant admission on the part of the Treasury Secretary; in reality this may be the early stage of a crisis within the broader well-established crisis.

 

Risk Rises at ECB as European Banks Lose Deposits Sep 14th, 2011 07:43 by News (Bloomberg)

 

S&P Rally to 1,240 Before Capitulation Zacks Kevin Cook,September 14, 2011, ‘Fear has not gripped the market. The VIX, a good proxy for the institutional perception of risk since it is based on the premium being paid for S&P 500 put protection, has not made new highs since early August…’ 

 

Moody’s cuts two French banks’ ratings Sep 14th, 2011 07:39 by News (Financial Times)

 

EU warned of credit crunch threat, French banks hit WROCLAW,Poland/PARIS (Reuters) - European finance ministers have been warned confidentially of the danger of a renewed credit crunch as a "systemic" crisis in euro zone sovereign debt spills...

 

Can the U.S. Sidestep Contagion with Europe? ETFguide  [ Short answer: NO! ] ‘… SINKING INCOME LEVELS Even without Europe's problems, the U.S.' reputation for being the land of milk and honey has been declining. Household income, according to the Census Bureau's annual report on living standards, fell for the third consecutive year and on an inflation adjusted basis, incomes have retreated back to levels seen 15-years ago. Median household income was at a mere $49,445 in 2010. Full-time workers also experienced sagging incomes, which are lower today than in 1978, after adjusting for inflation. Furthermore, the poverty rate for Americans increased to 15.1% of the population. Will Europe's crisis help the U.S. economy end a multi-decade trend of falling incomes and rising poverty? STILL BLIND TO RECESSION What do economists have to say about all of this? As a collective group, economists still deny the existence of an economic recession and their off-the-mark financial projections show it. Instead of taking a sober and realistic view of the economy, they see growth, growth and more growth. Economists with the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) predicted 2.8% expansion for the U.S. economy in May, but have since scaled back that forecast to 1.7%. For 2012, the group is projecting 2.3% growth. The NABE has been likewise wrong about the unemployment rate. They were projecting a jobless rate of 8.7% for the remainder of 2011 and 8.2% for next year. Instead, nationwide unemployment has remained above 9% and if we account for marginally attached workers along with unemployed self-employed workers the actual national jobless rate is probably closer to 20%. It's important to remember the NABE's survey was completed before the White House's unveiling of a $447 billion plan to stimulate job growth through (more) government spending and tax cuts. No doubt, once economists factor in the President's latest plan, they'll re-revise their economic forecasts bullishly upward to agree with their perennial growth bias…’

 

 

Minyanville's T3 Daily Recap: Market Squeeze Continues, But Was it a Trap?  By T3Live.com Sep 14, 2011, ‘After a quick rinse in the first hour of trading Wednesday, the squeeze was back on as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) surged 4 points (3.4%) from low to high. Weak shorts were forced to cover, and it was off the races for stocks. But just when it seemed all was well with the market, a harsh pull-in during the last half-hour of trading erased nearly half of those gains. We have seen this type of behavior before during this wide range consolidation in the market, and it typically leads to further downside. A teleconference between German, Greek, and French leaders today resulted in assurances that Greece would remain part of the Eurozone, but the same problems still exist on the troubled continent. There is a crisis of confidence starting occuring among European banks, with account holders keen to protect themselves from calamity. This is exacerbating previous capitalization concerns, which were confirmed this morning when French banks were downgraded. Today's action could have been another clever ploy to suck in longs while relieving some of the oversold condition of the market. Risk is high in both directions in this environment, and, as we have stated repeatedly over the last two weeks, it's best to keep your trading light at this stage.’

 

Flat retail sales keeps U.S. on recession watch 

 

Another Absolutely Bonkers Day  Mark Gongloff ‘Still spinning? Well, folks, that was the stock market. Hope you enjoyed it. Just another quiet, totally normal day. Yep, just another day when the Dow loses 140 points in the last 20 minutes of trading, after soaring as high as 280 for pretty much no fundamental reason.Still, you can’t complain about it too much. All the good stuff led the market higher today. The S&P’s 1.4% gain was paced by healthy cyclical stuff like industrials, up 1.75%, consumer discretionary, up 1.65% and tech, up 1.6%.The Dow transports jumped 2%. The VIX gave up 6.3%.All good signs, but you can’t shake the nagging feeling that it can’t be realistic, given how absolutely nuts the action has been lately. The Treasury market held pretty much steady, with the 10-year note yielding 2% just about all day.Nobody’s comfortable right now — shorts have got to be worried, and many got squeezed today.Those of us who are long, meanwhile, are anxiously checking whether our top has stopped spinning yet.’

 

Europe's Outlook Darkens as French Banks Wobble and Austria Delays Greek Bailout at Minyanville

 

The Daily Market Report  Sep 14th, 2011 by NewsIf There Was Any Doubt… (USAGOLD) — ‘The yield on Greek 1-year money is trading in excess of 140% today; up dramatically from just a week ago when the 1-year yield was still below 100%. Clearly this is unsustainable and Greece is unquestionably on the verge of default, save for some massive infusion of funds that will negate Greece’s need to access global credit markets…’



Huge Surge in Bank of America Foreclosures CNBC | Bank of America is ramping up its foreclosure processing.



David Rosenberg: Its Time To Start Calling This For What It Is: A Modern Day Depression Zero Hedge | You know youre in a depression when interest rates go to zero and there is no revival in credit-sensitive spending. September 14, 2011

By now only the cream of the naive, Kool-Aid intoxicated crop believes that the US is not in either a deep recession, or, realistically, depression. For anyone who may still be on the fence, here is David Rosenbergs latest letter which will seal any doubts for good. It will also make it clear what the fair value of the stock market is assuming QE3 fails, which it will, and the market reverts to trading to fair value as predicated by bond spreads. To wit: If the Treasury market is correct in its implicit assumption of a renewed contraction in the economy, then we could well be talking about corporate earnings being closer to $75 in 2011 as opposed to the current consensus view of over $110. In other words, we may wake up to find out a year from now that whoever was buying the market today under an illusion of a forward multiple of 10x was actually buying the market with a 15x multiple. And since we are in the throes of a deep depression and a 10x multiple is more than generous, applying that to $75 in S&P earnings, means that the fair value of the S&P is well leave that to our readers.

From Breakfast with Rosie, of Gluskin Sheff

We just came off the weakest recovery on record despite the massive amounts of stimulus that the U.S. government has delivered in so many ways. That the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is down to 2% already speaks volumes because the last time we were at these levels was back in December 2008 when the downturn was already 12 months old. A period like the one we have endured over the past six months when bank shares are down 30% and the 10- year note yield is down 130 basis points has never in the past foreshadowed anything very good coming down the pike. If market rates are at Japanese levels, or at 1930s levels, then its time to start calling this for what it is: A modern day depression.

Look, that entire period from 1929-1941 saw several quarters of huge bungee-jump style GDP growth and countless tradable rallies in the stock market.

But that misses the point.

The point being that a depression, put simply, is a very long period of economic malaise and when the economy fails to respond in any meaningful or lasting way to government stimulus programs. A series of rolling recessions and modest recoveries over a multi-year period of general economic stagnation as the excesses from the prior asset and credit bubble are completely wrung out of the system. In baseball parlance, we are in the third inning of this current debt deleveraging ball game.

You know youre in a depression when interest rates go to zero and there is no revival in credit-sensitive spending.

The economy is in a depression when the banks are sitting on nearly $2 trillion of cash and yet there is no lending going onto the private sector. Its otherwise known as a liquidity trap.

Depressions usually are caused by a bursting of an asset bubble and a contraction in credit, whereas plain-vanilla recessions are typically caused by inflation and excessive manufacturing inventories. You tell me which fits the bill today.

When almost half of the ranks of the unemployed have been looking for a job fruitlessly for at least six months, you know you are in something much deeper than a garden-variety recession. True, we cant see the soup lines; the soup lines are in the mail 99 weeks of unemployment cheques for over 10 million jobless Americans. Dont be lulled into the view that we are into anything remotely close to a normal economic cycle.

Basically, in a depression, secular changes take place. Attitudes towards debt, discretionary spending and homeownership are altered for many years, or at least until the scars from the traumatic experience with defaults and delinquencies fade away. That is why we saw existing home sales slide to 15- year lows and new home sales to record lows despite the fact that mortgage rates have tumbled to their lowest levels in modern history. There is no economic model that would tell you that declining mortgage rates should lead to lower home sales.

More fundamentally, in a recession, the economy is revived by government stimulus. In depressions, the economy is sustained by government stimulus. There is a very big difference between these two states.

In a recession, everything would be back to a new high nearly three years after the initial contraction in the economy. This time around, everything from organic personal income to employment to real GDP to home prices to corporate earnings to outstanding bank credit are still all below, to varying degrees, the levels prevailing in December 2007.

Lets be clear: After all the monetary, fiscal and bailout stimulus, the economy should be roaring ahead, as would be the case if the economy were coming out of a normal garden-variety recession. The fact that there has been no sustained response to all these efforts by the government to turn things around is testament to the view that this is not actually a traditional recession at all, but something closely resembling a depression. That, my friends, is exactly what the bond market is signaling, with Treasury yields rapidly approaching Japanese levels. Just because the stock market embarked on a stimulus-led speculative two-year rally, which ended abruptly in April 2011 does not change that fact.

For all the chatter about whether the recession that started in December 2007 ended in mid-2009, here is what you should know about the historical record. The 1930s depression was not marked by declining quarterly GDP data every single quarter. In fact, the technical recessionary aspect to the initial period following the asset and credit shock goes from the third quarter of 1929 to the first quarter of 1933.

I can understand how emotional the debate can get over whether or not we have actually just stumbled along some post-recession recovery path or whether or not this is actually a depression in the sense of a downward trend in economic activity merely punctuated with noise that is influenced by recurring rounds of government intervention. The reality is that the Fed cut the funds rate to zero, as was the case in Japan, to little avail. Then the Fed tripled the size of its balance sheet again with little sustained impetus to a broken financial system. Government deficits of nearly 10% relative to GDP, or double what FDR ever ran during the 1930s, have obviously fallen flat in terms of providing any lasting impact to the economy.

This is going to sound like a broken record but it took a decade of parabolic credit growth to get the U.S. economy into this deleveraging mess and there is clearly no painless quick fix towards bringing household debt into historical realignment with the level of assets and income to support the prevailing level of liabilities. We are talking about $5 trillion of excess debt that has to be extinguished either by paying it down or by walking away from it (or having it socialized). Look, we can understand the need to be optimistic, but it is essential that we recognize the type of market and economic backdrop we are in.

The markets are telling us something valuable when (after a period of unprecedented government bailouts, incursions and stimulus programs) the yield on the 5-year note is south of 1% and the 10-year is down to 2%. Instead of contemplating over how attractively priced equities must be in this environment, market strategists and commentators would bring a lot more to the table if they tried to decipher what the macro message is from this price action in the Treasury market. Conducting stock market valuation analysis based on unrealistic consensus earnings assumptions does nobody any good, especially when these estimates are in the process of being cut, and at a time when the Treasury market is telling us we are the precipice of another recession.

If the Treasury market is correct in its implicit assumption of a renewed contraction in the economy, then we could well be talking about corporate earnings being closer to $75 in 2011 as opposed to the current consensus view of over $110. In other words, we may wake up to find out a year from now that whoever was buying the market today under an illusion of a forward multiple of 10x was actually buying the market with a 15x multiple.

Hows that for a reality check?

This augers for capital preservation, defensive orientation in the equity market and a focus on income-yielding securities; something weve been advocating for some time.

 


 

How American Taxpayers Could End Up Paying for ECB Liquidity Flood at The Wall Street Journal 

 

Company Analysts Hop On Bandwagon Of Gloom  [ Yes! This is in contradistinction to the funny money bandwagon of irrational exuberance that has swept up nations worldwide who have now joined the ranks of the fraudulent american manipulated markets of non-value asset / security pricing which will end quite badly as always! ] 

 

 

How Greece Is Mocking the Rest of the World  [ Well, let’s get real here! There’s plenty to mock in this world, and Greece is hardly the nation to be doing the mocking. I think it’s the markets that are mocking the rest of the world’s stupidity for buying into this false reality / obfuscation / fraud, particularly by way of the now pervasive worldwide acceptance of the american strategy of currency debasement which really is a fraud facilitator because it masks to all but the intelligent few the underlying economic weakness and decline. A simplistic example, though not perfect, is apropos here: a company sells a product for 1 dollar which costs 1 dollar to make (assuming arguendo to cover fixed expenses - no profit). The fed over-printing / creating dollars like mad to the point where it now takes 2 dollars to render the same purchasing power of  1 dollar when the goods were produced. The company sells the products for 2 dollars (the previous equivalent of 1 dollar before debasement). The company is now showing earnings 1 dollar per unit sold, yet in real terms, they’ve gotten no more than the equivalent of that 1 dollar per unit. (If you’ve been to the grocery store lately, particularly the last 1-2 months, I’ve found meats, etc., to be up 50-100%, etc.). The same obfuscating manipulations are applicable to assets generally, and to those pieces of paper called stocks which are even ‘worse for the wear’ since churn-and-earn commissions at lightning computerized speed are being subtracted from this illusory ‘enhanced value’ which in reality doesn’t exist at all. ( Such manipulations from currency translation also provide ‘arbitrage opportunities’ though similarly largely ultimately subtracted from no real value being created. ) This is why fraudulent wall street loves the fed’s QE’s and dollar debasement / over-printing / creating and also why it’s been a dismal failure and a net negative in real economic terms as seen on main street and in the desimation of the middle class and growing ranks of the poor. In the analysis of securities, this would be considered ‘the quality of earnings factor’ that goes into the assignment of a p/e multiple to the projected earnings. Sufficeth to say, this is no longer done on wall street in any real or legitimate fashion if at all. Indeed, it’s a fair statement to say that security analysis is no longer a ‘practice’ as same was considered, once upon a time, by value investors / analysts. As set forth by Dave and Cooper, infra, computerized programmed manipulation at lightning speed has been expedient in the short run for the wall street frauds but ultimately leads to the inevitable crash since as I often reiterate:  Remember, there is no modern day alchemy that spins worthless paper into gold except fraudulently for the frauds on wall street who’ve literally oftimes done exactly that; ‘cashing out’ for hard currency and gold, precious metals, at everyone else’s expense including main street. They’re just not that important and represent, like termites eating away at the nation’s foundation, a drag on the economy, the nation as one would expect from parasites such as they are’. What to Expect Next From the Markets Minyanville  Jeffrey Cooper ‘Conclusion: It looks like a program was run using the least amount of dollars to goose the indices by focusing on some big cap names like Apple, Amazon, Baidu, IBM, and Caterpillar,  Dave’s Daily:’.. The HAL 9000s have been doing business as HFTs (High Frequency Traders) launching many buy or sell programs using complex algorithms which can drive prices on indexes higher or lower in dramatic fashion. One of their great acts is called "quote stuffing". It's another illegal activity which the SEC hasn't quite figured out. It's as futile for them as the illegal fee-driven recent end-of-quarter price jam-job..’.      Simon Maierhofer, On Friday September 16, 2011, ‘Webster's dictionary defines gullible as naive and easily duped or cheated'.

On Thursday stocks rallied after Germany and France gave assurance that Greece will remain a member of the euro.

Haven't we been down this road before? How often have there been statements assuring that Greece is fine or will be fine? An Associated Press article stated this week that: 'Hopes were raised by the outcome of a teleconference Wednesday between leaders of France, Germany and Greece.'

Hope worked as propaganda tool for President Obama three years ago, but hope is not a suitable investment strategy. Einstein's famous definition of insanity comes to mind: Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Since the beginning of 2010 there have been five 10%+ sell offs. All of them, with the exception of the March 2011 decline (Japan earthquake), were blamed on Greece. When stocks recovered, it was credited to Greece's rigorous adherence to the demanded austerity measures or new bailout money.

The S&P has made no net progress since January 2010. After two years of water treading and lessons in Greek-style financial mockery we have to ask, is Wall Street insane?

Greece's Prime Minister George Papandreou just pledged that a reform program would be on the top of Thursday's (yesterday) Greek cabinet meeting. To buy stocks based on a pledge to push a concern that was initially sold as non-issue but has morphed into a matter of survival on the top of an agenda does seem insane.

Or should we just consider the Greeks geniuses? After all, they have figured out how to control Wall Street. Today it only takes mythical Grecian hope for a hopefully hopeful outcome to excite Wall Street.

A German saying may describe Greece's situation. Loosely translated, it goes like this: Once your reputation is ruined, you may live blatantly uninhibited.

Insane Financial Pain

The Greek saga began over two years ago, when, on June 23, 2009, Greece's finance minister nonchalantly disclosed that: 'The rate of growth for the Greek economy in 2009 is expected to slow more than forecasted. Specifically, it will range around zero and only return to growth in 2010.' The disclosed budget deficit at the time was $3.1 billion.

Growth obviously didn't return in 2010, but the following headlines all offered hope in 2010:

ECB member says no bailouts for Greece

Bulls run on Greece news

Debtors bet Greece won't spill

Is Greece's crisis over?

Greece contagion fears unfounded

IMF approved $3.3 billion for Greece amid impressive fiscal adjustment

If Greece's adjustment was that impressive, why are we still talking about Greece?

Small Fish in the Debt Pond

Greece has made quite a splash but it is just a small fish in the European debt pond. Given some more time, we'll probably find out that bigger fish make bigger splashes. Next in line are Portugal, Spain, Italy and France. In terms of size, this is probably like comparing a goldfish with a tuna.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that: 'European banks are cutting back on dollar denominated loans, a troublesome sign of credit contraction at a time when American and European economies can least afford it.' Credit contraction is the mother of deflation and Bernanke's most feared enemy.

The Chairman of Societe Generale, one of France's largest banks, made it a point to state on Monday that the bank was well funded. Nevertheless, it will be reducing its dollar denominated debt and lay off workers. When promises conflict actions, we know that actions speak louder than words. Laying off workers is not confidence inspiring.

Back in February, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned that: 'The debt problem of sovereign European countries has or is about to turn into a debt problem of super sovereign entities. The IMF and EU swallowing up massive amounts of debt has not eliminated debt, it has merely re- shuffled and concentrated it.'

On July 15, I stated via ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter: 'I know European stocks will tank eventually but I don't know when. However, I see that the iShares MSCI EAFA ETF (NYSEArca: EFA - News) just sliced below it's 20, 50 and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). The same is true for the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEArca: EEM - News). The high reward, low risk trade would be to go short EFA or EEM with a stop loss just above the 200-day SMA Corresponding ETFs are Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (NYSEArca: EFZ - News) and Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (NYSEArca: EUM - News).

What's Next?

Fortunately the European Union can rely on the smarts of its many capable members. There is former IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn who'd rather force his will on an innocent Manhattan hotel worker than enforce strict financial rules on member countries, Luxembourg's Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker who openly confesses to lying if required by circumstances and a whole slew of officials suffering from gullibility. You should think twice before betting against the European financial dream team.

As for me, I rely on technicals, not on officials, their decisions or the media's interpretation of it. The technicals I focus on are those of the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC). Not surprisingly, European stocks have generally moved in the same direction as the S&P.

The S&P and the SPDR Euro STOXX 50 ETF (NYSEArca: FEZ - News) both topped on May 2. The S&P's top came right on queue and within the 1,369 - 1,382 target range of a major market top I've outlined via the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter since early 2011.

Unlike the S&P, FEZ sunk to new lows on September 12. On that day FEZ was 38% below its May 2 high. Some more near-term damage may be to come for European stocks, but after a 38% haircut is not the time to double up on short positions.

As far as the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) is concerned, new lows are likely…’

 

Citi Cuts S&P 500 Target, Too at The Wall Street Journal

 

Lesson From A Burst Bubble: Dead Men Don't Spend at Forbes The Lehman bankruptcy was a much more important event than 9/11. It marked the end of a 60-year credit expansion. Maybe it marked the high water mark for the U.S. empire, too, and the beginning of the end for the U.S. dollar-based world monetary system.

Whats most remarkable about this post-Lehman economy is that it is so un-remarkable. The economy is contracting, and as it contracts, it squeezes jobs, incomes, spending and prices.

We saw a note in the press yesterday. It told us that even the wages of sin are falling. The union that represents waiters and cocktail servers at Atlantic City casinos says the hourly base has fallen from $8.74 to only $4.50. And tips are tumbling. Surveys of prostitutes show their earnings are a bit limp, too.

And as people get squeezed by the financial correction, they gasp for breath. There are now 46.2 million people in America under the poverty line, according to The Los Angeles Times. Thats the most in 50 years.

But nothing extraordinary about that either. This is the biggest correction in half a century too. And you dont have to look very far to find more confirmation.

Thats why the 10-year Treasury note yield has fallen to the lowest level since right after WWII, and its why nearly half the people looking for a job have been looking for more than six months. And its why a recent poll shows that 72% of Americans think the nation is going to hell.

Now, finally, almost everyone realizes that this is not a recession-recovery situation. Something else is going on. The Financial Times calls it a Great Recession. Richard Koo calls it a Balance Sheet Recession. And David Rosenberg says we should call it what it really is a modern depression.

But well stick with our Great Correction label. Because we think there is more going on here than even a depression describes. (About whichmore below).

So far, practically everything that has happened is about what youd expect the predictable, ordinary consequences of a contraction. There is nothing remarkable about it.

But whats this? The Dow is back on the rise. Stock market investors dont seem to have gotten the message: this economy is in a contraction. Theyre still pricing stocks as if they thought the underlying businesses would grow. But companies dont add sales or profits in a contraction.

At least gold investors seem to have a better idea of what is going on. They sold the yellow metal.  The price of the GLD is dropping.

And the bond market too has its feet on the ground. The yield on the 10-year note is only 2.08%. That is a level consistent with a Japanese-style slump

No surprises here. But what if there were more going on than a simple financial correctioneven a correction of a 60-year credit expansion? What if the Great Correction were greater than we thought? More ambitious, more aggressive and more dangerous?

In the space of the last 500 years the human population grew approximately 1000%. If it were a financial chart, youd look at it and think uh ohits a bubble.

What if we were approaching a correction?

Reuters reports that the population of Japan is falling like a stone. Some 20 million Japanese are expected to disappear in the next 30 years.

Declining, graying populations are not what you need for economic growth. Old people dont spend much. Dead people spend even less.

As a result, the economy shrivels up like a 90-year-old. In Japan today about the only business still growing is the funeral business. People spend $157 to rent cold rooms, where they can store their loved ones while they await a spot at the crematorium. No kidding. Heres Reuters:

Annual deaths are expected to peak at 1.66 million in 2040 as the bulk of the nations baby boomer generation expires. By then, Japans population will have shrunk by around 20 million people, an unprecedented die off for a nation neither at war or blighted by famine.

Dead Men Dont Spend by Bill Bonner originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning.

 

 

ETFs have potential to become the next toxic scandal Sep 19th, 2011 News (The Telegraph) Back in April, the Financial Stability Board (FSB), an international super-regulator, wrote a prescient if less than catchily-titled paper Potential financial stability issues arising from recent trends in Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).Its central warning that ETFs are not the cheap and transparent vehicles the marketers would have us believe was spot on. When UBSs $2bn black hole hit the screens on Thursday, no one who read the FSB report was surprised to see the words ETF and rogue trader in the same sentencearound half of the ETFs in Europe today do not match the index they are designed to track by holding all of its constituent shares. Unlike the plain vanilla full replication ETFs which do, 45pc of the market is in the form of so-called swap-based ETFs which instead use derivative agreements, often with investment banks, to simulate the performance of the underlying assets. Derivative trades add a second layer of uncertainty to the unavoidable ups and downs of the market, the counterparty risk that the organisation on the other side of the contract might go bust. Even worse, the provider of the ETF might sometimes be a part of the same organisation as the derivatives desk carrying out the swapFor reasons which Im not sure I could explain even if I had the space, it is possible for the number of shares sold short in an ETF to massively exceed the actual number of shares available. [source]

 

 

4 'Invisible' Forces to Seal the Market's Fate ETFguide Simon Maierhofer, On Monday September 19, 2011, ‘In 2004, Daniel Simons of the University of Illinois and Christopher Chabris of Harvard University conducted an experiment that was as simple as it was fascinating.

If you want to be part of the experiment, watch this video before you read any further.

The Experiment

There are two groups of three people each. One group is wearing black shirts, the other group white shirts. The assignment is to watch how many times the players wearing white, pass the basketball.

If you counted 15, you are correct. But more importantly, did you notice the gorilla? While you were counting passes, a woman dressed in a gorilla suit walked slowly across the scene, stopped to face the camera and thumped her chest.

Half of the people watching the video with the intent of counting passes did not see the gorilla. The experiment illustrates the phenomenon of unintentional blindness. This condition, also known as perceptual blindness, prevents people from perceiving things that are in plain sight.

For most of 2010-11 Wall Street was so enamored by the magical powers of QE2 that it forgot about the 800-pound gorilla - the economy that wasn't improving. In fact, the economy continued deteriorating in plain sight.

There are five bearish mega trends that may draw stock prices much lower over the coming years. Here are the five mega trends (and what will make stocks rally in between).

U.S. Deficit

For a moment, take a mental journey with me back in time. We are now in early 2008. The major indexes a la S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI), and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) are slowly coming off their all-time high and the VIX (Chicago Options: ^VIX) is reflecting some complacency before the collapse of Lehman Brothers hits the news.

Unbeknownst to most, the perfect financial storm is brewing. Once the storm hits, it is much worse than anyone expected. But, the eventual damage is limited. Why? Because, the government steps up and does what it takes to prevent the financial system from failing.

Today has the feel of early 2008. Another perfect storm may be brewing. Will the government be there to do what it takes to support 'too big to fail?' No! In 2008 financial companies were in trouble. In 2011 entire countries (look at Europe and the U.S.) are struggling to escape the grip of delinquency.

A Decelerating Generation

Starting in 2011, more than 10,000 baby boomers a day will turn 65, a pattern that will continue for the next 19 years. This dry humor cartoon encapsulates the problem retirees' face today:

Two older gentlemen are having a drink. One says: 'As a Baby Boomer, I never thought the boom would be the sound of my retirement accounts collapsing.' He'd like to sip on a nice Scotch while enjoying a steak, but has to settle for water and free bread sticks at Olive Garden.

Most retirees still haven't recovered from the lost decade. Let's make the term lost decade more personal. A 55 year old with $100,000 in his retirement account at the beginning of the year 2000 and a 6% projected rate of return, would have $201,419 today.

The S&P trades 20% below its 2000 level. Courtesy of the lost decade, that $100,000 in the year 2000 has turned into $80,000 today (perhaps less if invested too aggressively). In other words, many retirees may have to get by on less than half of their expected nest egg. In addition, their home, rather than being an asset (many considered it an ATM a few years ago), has turned into a liability.

It doesn't take much imagination to see that strapped retirees are bad for economic growth. When the focus is on survival rather than pleasure, sectors like technology (NYSEArca: XLK - News), retail (NYSEArca: XRT - News), and consumer discretionary (NYSEArca: XLY - News) suffer.

In addition, baby boomers that have been buying stocks for decades (think of all the 401k money) are now turning into sellers of stock.

Low Interest Rates

Low interest rates are great for the U.S. government because it reduces debt payments on Treasuries and businesses wanting to expand. Unfortunately, businesses don't feel like expanding or even hiring and for pretty much everyone else low interest rates are negative.

Some try to sell the idea that low interest rates are good for stocks (NYSEArca: VTI - News) because money will flow from low interest bonds into stocks in an effort to get a better return.

The chart below plots the Nikkei against Japan's version of the discount rate. The discount rate has been below 1% since 1995. At the same time the Nikkei has dropped from above 20,000 to below 10,000. Much of this happened during a raging global bull market. Imagine what a global bear market can do to U.S. stocks.

                   https://www.etfguide.com//contributor/UserFiles/8/Image/yahoo%20japan%20discount.gif  

Low interest rates are a double negative because they reduce available spending for retirees who need to get as much income as possible to survive.

Coming to a Head

The above three bearish trends were highlighted in detail in various 2011 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletters. Due to those, and other mega trends, the Newsletter has been expecting a major market top.

For much of 2011 however, the expectation of a major market top was postponed until the ideal target range was reached. The April 3 ETF Profit Strategy update included a precise range for a major market top: 'In terms of resistance levels, the 1,369 - 1,382 range is a strong candidate for a reversal of potentially historic proportions. '

Why was S&P 1,369 - 1,382 a candidate for a reversal of historic proportions? The chart below, published by the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter in March and many times since, has the answer.

                   https://www.etfguide.com//contributor/UserFiles/8/Image/yahoo%20M%20pattern.gif

What you see is a giant M, or head and shoulders top. The right shoulder was made up of the parallel trend channel that connects the 2002 and 2009 low, with the 2000 high. In April/May the upper line of the trend channel ran through 1,377. Additional resistance was provided by Fibonacci levels at 1,389 and 1,369.

On May 2, the S&P briefly spiked as high as 1,370.58 before retreating and eventually dropping 18% in twelve trading days (July 25 - August 9). Once the S&P dropped below the 200-day SMA it entered free fall territory…’

 

 

Stock-ECRI Disconnect Suggests More Downside at The Wall Street Journal  Oddly Cheery Greek Pronouncements, Part Deux at The Wall Street Journal     Greek Finance Ministry Sends Oddly Cheery E-Mail at The Wall Street Journal  Apple Hits New High (Update1) [ This manipulated programmed trade to froth markets is a crash in the making sell at these ridiculous levels / take profits! ]  Stocks cut losses on hopes for Greece     Analysis: Japan's lost decade still a risk for U.S. economy    Behind the poverty numbers: real lives, real pain   Market Havoc and Threats to Your Pension International Forecaster | We have warned over and over again that government was going to come after your private retirement funds.  US taxpayers could be on hook for Europe bailout MSNBC | The U.S. is coming to Europe’s financial rescue.

 

 

IMF downgrades outlook for US and Europe economies [Sep 20, 2011] ... Fund has sharply downgraded its outlook for the U.S. economy through 2012 ...  http://finance.yahoo.com/news/IMF-downgrades-outlook-for-US-apf-1240337037.html?x=0



Market Recap: S&P Downgrades Italy, Housing Starts Tumble, Markets Wait on Bernanke   Wall St Cheat Sheet  September 20, 2011, Markets closed mixed on Wall Street today: Dow +0.07% , S&P -0.17% , Nasdaq -0.86% , Oil +1.39% , Gold +1.65% .

On the commodities front, Oil climbed to $86.89 a barrel. Precious metals also climbed, with Gold rising to $1,808.30 an ounce while Silver climbed 1.95% to $39.93 an ounce.

Hot Feature: European Central Banks Are Hungry for Gold

Todays markets were mixed because:

1) Italy. Standard & Poors cut Italys credit rating late Monday by one level to A from A+, citing weak economic growth and criticizing Romes response to the debt crisis. Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi responded, saying that the move was influenced by political considerations and media stories rather than economic reality. Markets quickly shrugged off the news, with major indices in Italy, Germany, and London all opening higher this morning.

2) Bernanke. Goldman Sachs provided a preview of what investors could see tomorrow from the Federal Reserve, saying there is a high probability that the FOMC will announce further easing steps at the conclusion of this weeks meeting. Goldman went on to say that Operation Twist looks very likely and that, As a complementary measure, we also expect that the committee will announce a cut in the interest on excess reserves (IOER) rate to 0.1% from 0.25%, although this is a much closer call. An IOER cut would lower market interest rates a small amount and could aid communication. The expectation of good news buoyed markets despite a day full of negative or at least neutral economic data, and had the major indices climbing high in mid-day, though theyve since declined toward more reasonable levels, given that the IMF announced today that it had lowered its global economic forecast for 2011 and 2012, with growth in Europe and the U.S. stalling.

3) Housing. Both housing starts and completions declined in August from already depressed numbers, according to a monthly report by the Department of Urban Housing and Development, in conjunction with the U.S. Census Bureau. However, building permits increased last month, which means more projects are likely to start within the next six months. The news had building stocks climbing higher, including Toll Brothers , D.R. Horton , KB Home , PulteGroup , Hovnanian Enterprises , and The Ryland Group all outperforming the major indices.

BONUS: IMF Downgrades Global Economic Outlook

 

30 Signs That The U.S. Economy Is About To Go Into The Toilet The Economic Collapse | If you think the U.S. economy is bad now, just wait for a few months.

 

Signs The Perfect Economic Storm Is Coming | www.bullfax.com  http://www.bullfax.com/?q=node-signs-perfect-economic-storm-coming  09/22/2011 By Michael T. Snyder: The financial world is officially going crazy. Can you believe what is going on out there right now? Financial markets have been jumping up and down like crazy for months and this is creating a lot of fear. Other than during the financial crisis of 2008, in the post-World War II era have we ever experienced as much financial instability as we are seeing right now? Should we just accept that massive financial instability is going to be part of "the new normal" in the financial world? The wild swings that we are witnessing in the global financial marketplace are making a whole lot of people very nervous right at the moment. When markets go up, they tend to do it slowly and steadily. When markets go down, a lot of times it can happen very rapidly. Also, as I have mentioned before, more major stock market crashes happen duringThe following is from an article that was recently posted on MarketWatch....

The insiders have vanished.

Chief executives. Board members. The head honchos. The people who know. Just a few weeks ago, they were out in force, buying up shares in their own companies with both hands. No longer. Theyve disappeared. Almost overnight. Theyve stopped buying, says Charles Biderman, the chief executive of stock market research firm TrimTabs, which tracks the data.

For some reason, this almost always starts happening before a crash. So obviously this is not a good sign.

A lot of normal investors have been pulling large amounts of money out of stocks as well. The following is from a report in the Financial Post....

Investors have pulled more money from U.S. equity funds since the end of April than in the five months after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., adding to the $2.1 trillion rout in American stocks.

About $75 billion was withdrawn from funds that focus on shares during the past four months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from the Investment Company Institute, a Washington-based trade group, and EPFR Global, a research firm in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Outflows totaled $72.8 billion from October 2008 through February 2009, following Lehmans bankruptcy, the data show.

Are you starting to get the picture?

Not only that, but a third very troubling sign is that an extraordinary number of bets have been placed against the S&P 500. As I noted the other day, if there is a stock market crash in the next few weeks, somebody is going to make a ton of money....

We are seeing an amazing number of bets against the S&P 500 right now. According to CNN, the number of bets against the S&P 500 rose to the highest level in a year last month. But that was nothing compared to what we are seeing for October. The number of bets against the S&P 500 for the month of October is absolutely astounding. Somebody is going to make a monstrous amount of money if there is a stock market crash next month.

It doesn't take a genius to see all the dark financial clouds that are gathering on the horizon.

And all of the bad news that is constantly coming out of Europe is certainly not helping things. For example, yesterday S&P slashed the credit ratings of seven different Italian banks.

Credit downgrades have become so frequent that we hardly even notice them anymore. Pessimism is everywhere right now. Suddenly it seems like almost everyone is predicting that another "recession" is coming....

 

Portfolio Insights by Brett Arends Sept. 21, 2011 Brett Arends, MarketWatch BOSTON (MarketWatch)