9-13-11 POSTS



 

U.S. poverty rate hit 15.1% in 2010 One in six Americans are living in poverty, Census Bureau reports, vivid evidence of the recession. (Washington Post) [ No surprise here! Yet, an examination of that top percentile of the wealthiest will show their wealth enhanced by leaps and bounds ultimately, and for quite some time now with misguided (though, ie., campaign, bribe, quid pro quo, etc., expedient) policies / strategies / incompetence,  etc., on the backs of and to the detriment of the middle class and nouveau-poor, respectively and particularly. And let me add its going to get worse!  Latest: Economist Who Predicted Market Crash Warns of 2012 Aftershock. See More Here.    Famed economist predicts economic calamity in 2012. See the evidence.Newsmax http://w3.newsmax.com/a/aftershockb/video.cfm?promo_code=CA79-1      50% unemployment, 90% stock market drop, 100% inflation. See the Evidence (Newsmax.com    Drudgereport: TEMPLETON chairman: Financial Crisis 'Around Corner'...
'WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF A GREAT, GREAT DEPRESSION...'
Obama Economists Admit: 'Stimulus' Cost $278,000 per Job...
GALLUP SHOCK: 'REPUBLICAN' BEATS OBAMA BY 8%
GALLUP: APPROVE DOWN TO 38%...
Highest Negative Rating Ever...
DOJ raids guitar factory... [ With unprosecuted securities fraud in the trillions, and my own experience with the DOJ that has covered up serious RICO crimes, etc.,  http://albertpeia.com/fbimartinezcongallard.htm   http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf     http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm   , I find this somewhat incredulous in terms of priorities!]
JOBS: ZERO...
BROKE: POST OFFICE SYSTEM MAY SHUT DOWN ENTIRELY THIS WINTER... [Good! Let UPS take them over the usps is totally unreliable]
AMERICA FALLS TO 5TH PLACE...
46.2 million Americans are now poor...
22% of children in poverty...
Dramatic drop in median income...
Likely to worsen...
POVERTY SOARS
SETS NEW RECORD

 

Economic / Financial Collapse Imminent Stansberry  Investment Advisory http://www.albertpeia.com/stansberrysinvestmentadvisory.flv    Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011 Dow will Fall to 3,800 4,500 by 2012 Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the latest. U.S. Dollar will Decline Housing will Decline by 40 60% from Todays Levels Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010 and 2012).  Fed Economists Predict A 15 Year Bear Market For Stocks Aug 23rd, 2011 News (BusinessInsider)  ,  End Of Cycle Smelling Like Dow 3K, Gold 3K  Forbes /  Bill Bonner   ,  No Recession Coming ... It's Already Here   , Financial Crisis Phase II Is Ahead at Forbes Bert Dohmen  In late 2007, I wrote the book Prelude To Meltdown, predicting the global crisis that occurred the following year.  I now see a similar confluence of events that warns of phase II of the global crisis My work shows that the new recession has started.”… Over the past 33 years, we have called the start of every recession, often on the exact month, or within one month, of the official start as determined one year later by the official arbiter of recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) However, inflation is far understated for political reasons. Currently, the GDP deflator is 1.8%, which hardly reflects the true rise in prices. Therefore, what is counted as growth, is actually price increases. Actual inflation, according to free market economists who calculate inflation as it was done in 1980 before the politician re-engineered it, is now more than 11%. Using that to adjust GDP for inflation, would show that the economy is now in a very sharp contraction…’Accounting Gimmics Resurface as Growth Flounders at TheStreet Rebekah Smith)

 

 

 

http://www.albertpeia.com/todayspage.htm  
http://albertpeia.com/fbimartinezcongallard.htm  
http://www.albertpeia.com 

 

 

 

 

Milloy: Think tank dismisses poverty’s pain  (Washington Post) [ Yeah! Typical! After all, we all know the so-called ‘think-tanks’ tanked,  along with their governmental ‘strategic’ counterparts, ie., nsa, cia, all three branches of the pervasively corrupt u.s. government, along with those plushly accoutered, hallowed halls of wall street, u.s. executive boardrooms, etc.. But don’t expect a ‘Perry Mason moment’ from them anytime soon where they prostrate themselves before the court of public opinion and admit their guilt. No, there’ll be no ‘mea culpas’ from them anytime soon though long overdue along with prosecutions. The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed!  Train Reading: The Stock Market Is (Criminally) InsaneThe Wall Street Journal  ,  This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits because there’s much worse to come! This is a suckers’ market contrived as with this suckers’ rally to suck suckers in and keep suckers sucked in and is based on fraud / manipulated programmed hft (high frequency trades – see, ie., What to Expect Next From the Markets , Dave’s Daily, infra ) and b***s*** alone! [ ‘american technology is horrendous and vastly overrated!’ I really mean it; and that’s reality, which speaks volumes about the pathetic state of the world ,   Don't Trust Wall Street and this Market  ETFguide ,  Congress budget agency warns panel of economic ills  ,  Nearly 1 in 6 Americans in poverty, Census says  ,  Cisco cuts long-term sales growth forecast  ,  International alarm over euro zone crisis grows  ,  Why Can't Wall Street Be Honest With The Public? Forbes  ,  Venture capital veteran Perkins sees danger ahead  , These Wall Street Firms are About to Start Firing People Like Crazy  ,   Same Alan Greenspan Who Warned Against Budget Surplus Now Warns About Deficit  ,  ETF Redemptions Highest Since 2008: Report ETF Trends , 20 Signs Of Imminent Financial Collapse In Europe The Economic Collapse ,  The 2nd Edge Of Modern Financial Repression: Manipulating Inflation Indexes To Steal From Retirees & Public Workers Gold Seek  Previous:The latest b***s*** story into the close is ‘rich’, but not as in wealthy. One interviewee / pundit even preposterously referred to the ‘Marco Polo effect’, viz., that communist China’s rumored to be about to save one of the PIIGS, italy … but who’s going to save communist china … really … some very bad karma for communist china just ‘round the corner! Don’t forget, the market’s rallied literally many hundreds of points owing to that spin / b***s*** called the ‘euro solution’, etc., which of course, never existed in reality, but great ‘fraud’ points (that computerized hf commissioned churn-and-earn, up and down, get you now and get you later). Then the so-called ‘technical support’ levels … based on much worse than spun fundamentals / reality. It’s the other way around, fools … fundamentals create technical support levels, not vice versa. Unprecedented Monthly Volume Sell-Off Suggests Now's the Time to Take Shelter at Minyanville Kevin A. Tuttle Sep 12, 2011  ,  Preparing for a Credit Crisis at Minyanville  John Mauldin  ,  What's the Long-Term Outlook for Stocks and The Economy? ETFguide   Simon Maierhofer, September 12, 2011  ,    ]     Prepare For Recession And Bear Market at Forbes Sy Harding, ‘Brace yourself for a recession ,  Senate (Quietly) Approves $500 Billion Increase in Borrowing Authority Sep 9th, 2011 by News (WSJ Blogs) PG View: Shhhhh. Don’t tell anyone, but we blew through that initial $400 bln debt ceiling hike in about a month /  Europe on the Verge of a Political Breakdown News , 4 Bearish Mega Trends  Simon Maierhofer / S&P 1,100 And Lower - More Likely Than you Think  , STOCKS DEMOLISHED, EUROPE NEAR BREAKING POINT: Here's What You Need To Know Business Insider , Ominous Bear Flag Pattern Suggests S&P 500 At 1,000  Scott Redler ,  What to Expect Next From the Markets Minyanville  Jeffrey Cooper ‘Conclusion: It looks like a program was run using the least amount of dollars to goose the indices by focusing on some big cap names like Apple, Amazon, Baidu, IBM, and Caterpillar,  Dave’s Daily:’.. The HAL 9000s have been doing business as HFTs (High Frequency Traders) launching many buy or sell programs using complex algorithms which can drive prices on indexes higher or lower in dramatic fashion. One of their great acts is called "quote stuffing". It's another illegal activity which the SEC hasn't quite figured out. It's as futile for them as the illegal fee-driven recent end-of-quarter price jam-job..’, etc.. Keep in mind the  ‘r’ word (‘recession’- actually should be ‘d’ word for depression) subtracting out the understated inflationary price increases (deflating growth with realistic inflation deflator), we’re already there (– see, Burt Dohmen, Financial Crisis Phase II Is Ahead at Forbes, infra)           7 Reasons Why New Lows are Likely  ETF Guide   ,  Albert Edwards Has Another Reason You Should Worry About Profits The Wall Street Journal, Mark Gongloff   ,   Chart Shock: The REAL Unemployment Rate Is 22% The Daily Bail September 2, 2011 ,  Deja Vu All Over Again: Total US Debt Passes Debt Ceiling… In Under One Month Since Extension  Sep 2nd, 2011 News (ZeroHedge)  ,   Global Recession: Right Here, Right Now at Minyanville  Mike Shedlock Sep 02, 2011  ,    Fearing An Even Worse Inflationary Depression Ahead Bob Chapman | The debauching of currencies worldwide goes on with great abandon. Previous: Typical (suckers’ rally into the close on still lingering hopes for more fed funny money that’s a detriment / negative to all but the frauds on wall street and has been a dismal policy failure) window-dressed end of month based on bad news, fraud, and b***s*** alone – watch for fake data / reports out of their sheer desperation  ,  Beware Dow In September: Do You Believe The Data?   [ NO! I DON’T BELIEVE THE GOVERNMENT DATA ( Famed economist predicts economic calamity in 2012x   http://w3.newsmax.com/a/aftershockb/video.cfm?promo_code=CA79-1    , NOR DO I BELIEVE THE NON-GOVERNMENT DATA (Accounting Gimmics Resurface as Growth Flounders at TheStreet Rebekah Smith, infra)  ,   Global Recession Likely, Depression Possible: Economist  Aug 31st, 2011 by News (CNBC)  ,    Ignore Buffett's Advice, Don't Buy Stocks Forbes /  Dohmen , The "Crimes" That Wrecked The Markets  Forbes / Lenzner  ,  What to Expect Next From the Markets at Minyanville  Jeffrey Cooper Aug 29, 2011  ‘Conclusion: It looks like a program was run using the least amount of dollars to goose the indices by focusing on some big cap names like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Baidu (BIDU), IBM (IBM), and Caterpillar (CAT) on Friday. That is why the market is so dangerous here…‘  Arguments for Being in the Crash Camp   Conor Sen  Aug 29, 2011 ‘If you want to take risk, only own things you're willing to own in a down 20-30% tape, because that's what we could see over the next month...’  , Economic / Financial Collapse Imminent – Stansberry  Investment Advisory http://www.albertpeia.com/stansberrysinvestmentadvisory.flv    Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011 Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012 Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the latest. U.S. Dollar will Decline Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010 and 2012).  Fed Economists Predict A 15 Year Bear Market For Stocks Aug 23rd, 2011 News (BusinessInsider)  ,  End Of Cycle Smelling Like Dow 3K, Gold 3K  Forbes /  Bill Bonner   ,  No Recession Coming ... It's Already Here   , Financial Crisis Phase II Is Ahead at Forbes Bert Dohmen ‘ In late 2007, I wrote the book Prelude To Meltdown, predicting the global crisis that occurred the following year.  I now see a similar confluence of events that warns of phase II of the global crisis… My work shows that “the new recession has started.”… Over the past 33 years, we have called the start of every recession, often on the exact month, or within one month, of the official start as determined one year later by the official arbiter of recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)… However, inflation is far understated for political reasons. Currently, the GDP deflator is 1.8%, which hardly reflects the true rise in prices. Therefore, what is counted as “growth,” is actually price increases. Actual inflation, according to free market economists who calculate inflation as it was done in 1980 before the politician re-engineered it, is now more than 11%. Using that to adjust GDP for inflation, would show that the economy is now in a very sharp contraction…’ ,  NOR DO I BELIEVE THE NON-GOVERNMENT DATA (Accounting Gimmics Resurface as Growth Flounders at TheStreet Rebekah Smith) at this point of abounding desperation for both. ] Murray Coleman ‘If you believe in seasonal factors, betting on the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) wouldn’t seem like the best play about this time of year. Over the past 100 years, the Dow itself has averaged a drop of 0.8% in September, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Over the last 50 years, the Dow has averaged a fall of 0.79%; in the past 20 years the benchmark has typically dropped by 0.60% during the month…’    

 

 

 

http://www.albertpeia.com/todayspage.htm  
http://albertpeia.com/fbimartinezcongallard.htm  
http://www.albertpeia.com 

 

 

 

White House pressed on $500M loan to solar company now under investigation EXCLUSIVE | It pushed federal reviewers for a decision so Biden could announce approval at a factory groundbreaking, e-mails show. (Washington Post) [ Yes, that uneconomic job creation (u.s.postal service included) can get downright fraudulent. Eh! But lets not kid ourselves. This is pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america; and that inherent criminality with all that that entails. Its in their genes some might say. I observed such first-hand: 

SHARE YOUR OPINION ON THE DEBT LIMIT
Dear Congresswoman Roybal-Allard:

The following is my comment to an LA Times article regarding a Justice Department cover-up! As for your inquiry, all I think about day and night is a long overdue resolution to the RICO litigation as set forth therein:

ATF Chief Melson:Justice Department trying to shield officials (LATimes) Serrano

 

I believe him!

 I truly empathize with the ATF in terms of government cover-ups, notably by even the DOJ. You’ll recognize some familiar names (ie., Alito, Trump, Freeh (Louis Freeh now has dual citizenship with Italy), and some familiar crimes (ie., drug money laundering, etc. – real cash cow for gov’t ops, bribes, etc.). [Did you know this about the following ATF Agents who were probably viewed as loose ends: Steve Willis, Robert Williams, Todd McKeahan & Conway LeBleu:   Died February 28, 1993 by gunfire at Waco. All four were examined by a pathologist and died from identical wounds to the left temple. All four had been body guards for Bill Clinton, three while campaigning for President and when he was Governor of Arkansas.They also were the ONLY 4 BATF agents killed at Waco. ]

 

 

 

Heres some real, complicit cover-up / fraud on the part of the federal government, et als:

 

October 15, 2010 (*see infra {ultimately delivered by UPS})

 

 

Steven M. Martinez, Assistant Director In Charge
Federal Bureau of Investigation, USDOJ
11000 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 1700

Los Angeles, CA 90024

 

 

Dear Sir:

 

I enclose herewith 3 copies of the within DVD rom autorun disk (which will open in your computers browser) as per your offices request as made this day (the disk and contents have been scanned by Avast, McAfee, and Norton which Ive installed on my computer to prevent viral attacks / infection and are without threat). I also include 1 copy of the DVD as filed with the subject court as referenced therein (which files are also included on the aforesaid 3 disks in a separate folder named 112208opocoan). The (civil) RICO action (as youre aware, the RICO Act is a criminal statute which provides a civil remedy, including treble damages and attorney fees, as an incentive for private prosecution of said claims probably owing to the fact that the USDOJ seems somewhat overwhelmed and in need of such assistance given the seriousness and prevalence of said violations of law which have a corrupting influence on the process, and which corruption is pervasive). A grievance complaint against Coan was also filed concurrently with the subject action and held in abeyance pending resolution of the action which was illegally dismissed without any supporting law and in contravention of the Order of The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge, USDC, District Connecticut. The files below the horizontal rule are the referenced documents as filed. (Owing to the damage to the financial interests of both the U.S. and the District of Congresswoman Roybal-Allard, viz., Los Angeles, the Qui Tam provisions of the Federal False Claims Act probably would apply and I would absent resolution seek to refer the within to a firm with expertise in that area of the law with which I am not familiar).

 

 

The document in 5 pages under penalty of perjury I was asked to forward to the FBI office in New Haven is probably the best and most concise summary of the case  RICO Summary to FBI Under Penalty of Perjury at Their Request (5 pages)      [  ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf   http://albertpeia.com/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf          ].

 

 

The correspondence I received from the Congresswoman by way of email attachment (apparent but typical problem with my mail) along with my response thereto is included on the 3 disks as     fbicorrespondencereyes.htm     .   With regard to the calls to the FBIs LA and New Haven, CT offices: There was one call to the LA office and I was referred to the Long Beach, CA office where I personally met with FBI Agent Jeff Hayes to whom I gave probative evidentiary documents of the money laundering which he confirmed as indicative of same (he was transferred from said office within approximately a month of said meeting and his location was not disclosed to me upon inquiry). The matter was assigned to FBI Agent Ron Barndollar and we remained in touch for in excess of a decade until he abruptly retired (our last conversation prior to his retirement related to the case and parenthetically, Rudy Giuliani whose father I stated had been an enforcer for the mob to which he registered disbelief and requested I prove it, which I did he served 12 years in prison, aggravated assault/manslaughter? and no, there is no Chinese wall of separation Andrew Maloneys the one that prosecuted gotti).

 

 

In contradistinction to the statement in said correspondence, there is a plethora of information including evidence supporting the claims set forth in the    RICO VERIFIED COMPLAINT    (see infra). Such includes and as set forth in the case, inter alia,

 

 

 

 

There is applicable insurance / surety coverage and neither LA, nor creditors, nor I should continue to have been damaged by this brazened corrupt and illegal scenario, which should be resolved in accordance with the meaningful rules of law apposite thereto.

 

 

Sincerely,

 

 

Albert L. Peia

611 E. 5th Street, #404

Los Angeles, CA 90013

(213) 219-**** (cell phone)

(213) 622-3745 (listed land line but there are unresolved problems with the line, computer connection may be the reason but I hesitate to chance greater non-performance / worsening by their fix so cell phone best for contact).{recent change 323-786-6651 -magic jack}

 

 

                       ----------

 

*The foregoing and as indicated therein was previously send 9-14-10 but delivery confirmation was flawed as set forth below and my inquiries to the u.s. postal service rebuffed (I believe tampered with inasmuch as your office could not locate same). This cover letter (9-13-10) is on the 3 disks with navigable hyperlinks to the subject files for ease of reference, including the files in the RICO action as indicated. (10-15-10) I spoke with Rose, FBI, ADIC Secretary, who indicates once again that your office has not received the aforesaid and which can reasonably be presumed to have been tampered with, and hence, a violation of the federal statute concerning same. (Ultimately delivered by UPS) ]

 

 

http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf       http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm        Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holders vows to target financial fraud  WP Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown.    America Is a Failed State Because It Wont Prosecute Financial Crime  Washingtons Blog / the grim economic reality   [  http://albertpeia.com/grimreality.htm           

CRIME STATS(u.s.No.1)

Rank  

Countries 

Amount 

 

# 1  

United States:

11,877,218 

 

# 2  

United Kingdom:

6,523,706 

 

# 3  

Germany:

6,507,394 

 

UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE...      ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims ' Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holders vows to target financial fraud  WP | Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown.        


THE OBAMA DECEPTION
  http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv    

 


http://www.albertpeia.com 

 

 

 

Sincerely and Regards,

 

Al Peia

 

 

http://www.albertpeia.com/todayspage.htm 
http://albertpeia.com/fbimartinezcongallard.htm  
http://www.albertpeia.com 

 

 

 

Milbank: Don’t expect much from supercommittee  (Washington Post) [ Ah! Dear, sweet Mr. Milbank. ‘Where has all his optimism gone, long time passing. Where has all his optimism gone, as long, long ago’ … Geez, where are Peter, Paul, and Mary when you need them, for an american folk song of sorts … a coming of age ballad for sweet wobama apologist / aficionado Mr. Milbank. Well, at least it’s a distinct positive when one can say the ever endearing Mr. Milbank is right, albeit in somewhat cynical fashion. Yet, hope’s still alive ‘cause, unbeknownst to Mr. Milbank, with powers beyond those of mere mortal men, ( ‘Supercommittee’ is further taxed The president’s jobs plan is likely to add to the burdens of legislators who already face a daunting task. WP )  look Mr. Milbank! Up in the sky! It’s bird brains, it’s crashing planes, it’s ‘supercommitee’! Yes, it’s supercommittee! Strange ‘extra-constitutional’ incarnation from another lost time! Able to get people to leap from tall buildings in a suicidal bound! And who, disguised as america’s representatives fight a never-ending battle for lies, injustice, the american way.  A big task for debt ‘supercommittee’  CBO says during next 10 years, Washington probably will spend $4.69 trillion more than it collects in taxes. (Washington Post) [ Task? We’re now talking ‘Mission Impossible”!   Deja Vu All Over Again: Total US Debt Passes Debt Ceiling… In Under One Month Since Extension  Sep 2nd, 2011 News (ZeroHedge)  ,  #8 The U.S. national debt continues to get worse by the day.  Just check out what economics professor Laurence J. Kotlikoff recently told NPR….“If you add up all the promises that have been made for spending obligations, including defense expenditures, and you subtract all the taxes that we expect to collect, the difference is $211 trillion. That’s the fiscal gap” ..’     Deficits And Stimulus Only Delay The Inevitable Collapse Bob Chapman | America is insolvent and has been so for a long time. US Is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece: Gross When adding in all of the money owed to cover future liabilities in entitlement programs the US is actually in worse financial shape than Greece and other debt-laden European countries, Pimco’s Bill Gross told CNBC Monday.  Maierhofer: ‘USA INCOME STATEMENT:Total federal spending in 2010 amounted to $3.456 trillion. Total receipts added up to $2.162 trillion. USA Inc.'s 2010 deficit was $1.294 trillion.The 2011 federal budget is $3.7 trillion with a projected deficit of$1.6 trillion. …USA BALANCE SHEET: Consensus estimates for unfunded obligations vary. Mary Meeker pegs the shortfall at $31 trillion, PIMCO's Bill Gross estimates the unreported debt to be $75 trillion, while other estimates exceed $100 trillion (these amounts are insurmountable) …’     Rhetoric forms aggressive stance (Washington Post) [ Riiiiight! Aggressive rhetoric … otherwise known by what wobama’s known for; viz., b***s***! Sometimes as here, something can be too late. Poll: Obama ratings sink to new lows  (WP) [ Yeah! There’s no surprise here; except total bewilderment at the sight of ‘awe-struck’ fans of wobama who’s been on that ‘eternal campaign’ of total b***s***! I mean, it’s embarrassing for everyone concerned. What he said he was going to do, he didn’t; and, what he condemned and said he wasn’t going to do, he did. That campaign jive-talkin’ b***s*** is not so long ago that people should be forgetting what he said then, which turned out to be meaningless. He’s so pathetic and embarrassing to even listen to. People should be ashamed of themselves. After all, the joke, wobama, is on them.Realize that if wobama’s actions had not belied his words/campaign promises, the nation’s position would have been substantially improved. He’s a total failure!    Bad memories(WP).. they remind us how the country got into this mess ..it is also true of ‘wobama the b’ for b***s*** (perma wars and no pros of wall street frauds have continued with ‘obama bush failure 3’),  his statute of limitations on blaming Bush runs out’ as set forth by Forbes / Mariotti, Obama's Legacy: A Failed Recovery & Double-Dip Recession‘…There will be no significant recovery in the United States of America while Barack Obama is President.  The evidence is overwhelming:  everything Obama has tried to fuel a recovery (with his Democratic allies in Congress) has failed.  Statistics claiming jobs saved by the stimulus package were mostly fiction, and cost American taxpayers about $275,000 each.  Nearly 2-1/2 million fewer Americans have jobs than before the stimulus. Barack Obama has been President for 30 months—2-1/2 years..He “bailed out” GM, but many believe that his interference didn’t save GM; it merely cost taxpayers an extra $15-20 billion..His broken campaign promises are too numerous to list..’Sen.Grassley“It doesn’t make sense that an agency responsible for investigations would want to get rid of potential evidence’ [Report: SEC lawyer exposed FBI informant (WP) [ Clearly, the sec liar (sic – lawyer) is one of those typically with a ‘pre or post’ arrangement, whether implicit or explicit; you know, that ubiquitous ‘bribe thing’ in pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt, fallen  america. Indeed, the scenario typifies that national drain / sinkhole new york (new york / new jersey metro) where, for example, FBI informants were routinely exposed by ‘italians’ in the new york d.a.’s office over the objection of the FBI, and were promptly murdered by mafia [documented with authority in‘Goombata: The Improbable Rise and Fall of John Gotti and His Gang’ Cummings / Volkman  ]  The "Crimes" That Wrecked The Markets  Forbes   unprosecuted securities fraud in the trillions, and my own experience with the ‘DOJ’ that has covered up serious RICO crimes, etc.,  http://albertpeia.com/fbimartinezcongallard.htm   http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf     http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm   

UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE...ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims ' Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud  WP Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown.America Is a Failed State Because It Won’t Prosecute Financial Crime Roche 'The worst part of it  ...Obama, who vowed change, has done almost nothing to fix any of it and in fact continues most of the policies that helped get us here in the first place’ http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv    

http://www.albertpeia.com/todayspage.htm  
 
http://www.albertpeia.com 

UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE...ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims ' Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud  WP Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown.America Is a Failed State Because It Won’t Prosecute Financial Crime Roche 'The worst part of it  ...Obama, who vowed change, has done almost nothing to fix any of it and in fact continues most of the policies that helped get us here in the first place’ http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv    

 

 

http://www.albertpeia.com/todayspage.htm  
http://albertpeia.com/fbimartinezcongallard.htm  
http://www.albertpeia.com 

 

 

 

Special Report: On Recession Road  (Washington Post) [ ‘The long and winding road’ (The Great Beat les), that leads to depression’s door, oh, oh, oh, oh … will never disappear, I’ve seen and warned of that road before … Yes, we’re already in the (continued great) recession, intractably on the road to depression and even worse in some respects, for pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america. If only they’d have listened and done the right thing!  Latest: Economist Who Predicted Market Crash Warns of 2012 Aftershock. See More Here.    Famed economist predicts economic calamity in 2012. See the evidence.Newsmax http://w3.newsmax.com/a/aftershockb/video.cfm?promo_code=CA79-1      50% unemployment, 90% stock market drop, 100% inflation. See the Evidence (Newsmax.com    Drudgereport: TEMPLETON chairman: Financial Crisis 'Around Corner'...
'WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF A GREAT, GREAT DEPRESSION...'     Economic / Financial Collapse Imminent – Stansberry  Investment Advisory http://www.albertpeia.com/stansberrysinvestmentadvisory.flv    Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011 Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012 Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the latest. U.S. Dollar will Decline Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010 and 2012).  Fed Economists Predict A 15 Year Bear Market For Stocks Aug 23rd, 2011 News (BusinessInsider)  ,  End Of Cycle Smelling Like Dow 3K, Gold 3K  Forbes /  Bill Bonner   ,  No Recession Coming ... It's Already Here   , Financial Crisis Phase II Is Ahead at Forbes Bert Dohmen ‘ In late 2007, I wrote the book Prelude To Meltdown, predicting the global crisis that occurred the following year.  I now see a similar confluence of events that warns of phase II of the global crisis… My work shows that “the new recession has started.”… Over the past 33 years, we have called the start of every recession, often on the exact month, or within one month, of the official start as determined one year later by the official arbiter of recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)… However, inflation is far understated for political reasons. Currently, the GDP deflator is 1.8%, which hardly reflects the true rise in prices. Therefore, what is counted as “growth,” is actually price increases. Actual inflation, according to free market economists who calculate inflation as it was done in 1980 before the politician re-engineered it, is now more than 11%. Using that to adjust GDP for inflation, would show that the economy is now in a very sharp contraction…’ (Accounting Gimmics Resurface as Growth Flounders at TheStreet Rebekah Smith)  The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed!  Train Reading: The Stock Market Is (Criminally) InsaneThe Wall Street Journal  ,  This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits because there’s much worse to come! This is a suckers’ market contrived as with this suckers’ rally to suck suckers in and keep suckers sucked in and is based on fraud / manipulated programmed hft (high frequency trades – see, ie., What to Expect Next From the Markets , Dave’s Daily, infra ) and b***s*** alone! [ ‘american technology is horrendous and vastly overrated!’ I really mean it; and that’s reality, which speaks volumes about the pathetic state of the world ,   Don't Trust Wall Street and this Market  ETFguide ,  Congress budget agency warns panel of economic ills  ,  Nearly 1 in 6 Americans in poverty, Census says  ,  Cisco cuts long-term sales growth forecast  ,  International alarm over euro zone crisis grows  ,  Why Can't Wall Street Be Honest With The Public? Forbes  ,  Venture capital veteran Perkins sees danger ahead  , These Wall Street Firms are About to Start Firing People Like Crazy  ,   Same Alan Greenspan Who Warned Against Budget Surplus Now Warns About Deficit  ,  ETF Redemptions Highest Since 2008: Report ETF Trends , 20 Signs Of Imminent Financial Collapse In Europe The Economic Collapse ,  The 2nd Edge Of Modern Financial Repression: Manipulating Inflation Indexes To Steal From Retirees & Public Workers Gold Seek  Previous:The latest b***s*** story into the close is ‘rich’, but not as in wealthy. One interviewee / pundit even preposterously referred to the ‘Marco Polo effect’, viz., that communist China’s rumored to be about to save one of the PIIGS, italy … but who’s going to save communist china … really … some very bad karma for communist china just ‘round the corner! Don’t forget, the market’s rallied literally many hundreds of points owing to that spin / b***s*** called the ‘euro solution’, etc., which of course, never existed in reality, but great ‘fraud’ points (that computerized hf commissioned churn-and-earn, up and down, get you now and get you later). Then the so-called ‘technical support’ levels … based on much worse than spun fundamentals / reality. It’s the other way around, fools … fundamentals create technical support levels, not vice versa. Unprecedented Monthly Volume Sell-Off Suggests Now's the Time to Take Shelter at Minyanville Kevin A. Tuttle Sep 12, 2011  ,  Preparing for a Credit Crisis at Minyanville  John Mauldin  ,  What's the Long-Term Outlook for Stocks and The Economy? ETFguide   Simon Maierhofer, September 12, 2011  ,    ]     Prepare For Recession And Bear Market at Forbes Sy Harding, ‘Brace yourself for a recession ,  Senate (Quietly) Approves $500 Billion Increase in Borrowing Authority Sep 9th, 2011 by News (WSJ Blogs) PG View: Shhhhh. Don’t tell anyone, but we blew through that initial $400 bln debt ceiling hike in about a month /  Europe on the Verge of a Political Breakdown News , 4 Bearish Mega Trends  Simon Maierhofer / S&P 1,100 And Lower - More Likely Than you Think  , STOCKS DEMOLISHED, EUROPE NEAR BREAKING POINT: Here's What You Need To Know Business Insider , Ominous Bear Flag Pattern Suggests S&P 500 At 1,000  Scott Redler ,  What to Expect Next From the Markets Minyanville  Jeffrey Cooper ‘Conclusion: It looks like a program was run using the least amount of dollars to goose the indices by focusing on some big cap names like Apple, Amazon, Baidu, IBM, and Caterpillar,  Dave’s Daily:’.. The HAL 9000s have been doing business as HFTs (High Frequency Traders) launching many buy or sell programs using complex algorithms which can drive prices on indexes higher or lower in dramatic fashion. One of their great acts is called "quote stuffing". It's another illegal activity which the SEC hasn't quite figured out. It's as futile for them as the illegal fee-driven recent end-of-quarter price jam-job..’, etc.. Keep in mind the  ‘r’ word (‘recession’- actually should be ‘d’ word for depression) subtracting out the understated inflationary price increases (deflating growth with realistic inflation deflator), we’re already there (– see, Burt Dohmen, Financial Crisis Phase II Is Ahead at Forbes, infra)           7 Reasons Why New Lows are Likely  ETF Guide   ,  Albert Edwards Has Another Reason You Should Worry About Profits The Wall Street Journal, Mark Gongloff   ,   Chart Shock: The REAL Unemployment Rate Is 22% The Daily Bail September 2, 2011 ,  Deja Vu All Over Again: Total US Debt Passes Debt Ceiling… In Under One Month Since Extension  Sep 2nd, 2011 News (ZeroHedge)  ,   Global Recession: Right Here, Right Now at Minyanville  Mike Shedlock Sep 02, 2011  ,    Fearing An Even Worse Inflationary Depression Ahead Bob Chapman | The debauching of currencies worldwide goes on with great abandon. Previous: Typical (suckers’ rally into the close on still lingering hopes for more fed funny money that’s a detriment / negative to all but the frauds on wall street and has been a dismal policy failure) window-dressed end of month based on bad news, fraud, and b***s*** alone – watch for fake data / reports out of their sheer desperation  ,  Beware Dow In September: Do You Believe The Data?   [ NO! I DON’T BELIEVE THE GOVERNMENT DATA ( Famed economist predicts economic calamity in 2012x   http://w3.newsmax.com/a/aftershockb/video.cfm?promo_code=CA79-1    , Global Recession Likely, Depression Possible: Economist  Aug 31st, 2011 by News (CNBC)  ,    Ignore Buffett's Advice, Don't Buy Stocks Forbes /  Dohmen , The "Crimes" That Wrecked The Markets  Forbes / Lenzner  ,  Arguments for Being in the Crash Camp   Conor Sen  Aug 29, 2011 ‘If you want to take risk, only own things you're willing to own in a down 20-30% tape, because that's what we could see over the next month...’  NOR DO I BELIEVE THE NON-GOVERNMENT DATA (Accounting Gimmics Resurface as Growth Flounders at TheStreet Rebekah Smith) at this point of abounding desperation for both. ] Murray Coleman ‘If you believe in seasonal factors, betting on the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) wouldn’t seem like the best play about this time of year. Over the past 100 years, the Dow itself has averaged a drop of 0.8% in September, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Over the last 50 years, the Dow has averaged a fall of 0.79%; in the past 20 years the benchmark has typically dropped by 0.60% during the month…’  


 

http://www.albertpeia.com/todayspage.htm  
http://albertpeia.com/fbimartinezcongallard.htm  
http://www.albertpeia.com 

 

 

Lewis: What would MLK say to Obama?  (Washington Post) [ He’d say not color of skin, but that ‘content of character thing’ should at least start at the DOJ under fellow black Holder. I mean, who would take them seriously if it didn’t!  UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE...ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims '.    White House turns attention to blacks Focus comes amid a growing concern that economic conditions might hamper black voter turnout. (Washington Post) [ As if we couldn’t see that coming. Yet, the ‘make-work, make-shift’ jobs already extant in the federal, state, local ‘public service’ sectors along with the otherwise unemployable at, ie., the u.s. postal service, etc., are uneconomic and overly costly (Drudgereport: Obama Economists Admit: 'Stimulus' Cost $278,000 per Job... ) at best and downright wasteful at worst, the latter being the most prevalent scenario. Moreover, despite the rhetoric, blacks will always ‘back the black’. No criteria. No analysis. ‘Back the black’ their despoiling cry. I think wobama and holder are probably more concerned with making sure the ‘black panthers’ are in full force at the polls to intimidate white voters, which racism they’ve given ‘carte blanche’, protection from prosecution … UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE...ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims '. With wobama et als, the jive-talking b***s*** never ends!     Robinson: King’s dream remains unrealized  (Washington Post) [ Yeah! That ‘content of their character’ thing’s a b***ch to live up to … just don’t measure up! What’s a white person to do, especially when black atty. General Holder with Obama’s tacit approval is racist himself (themselves)  UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE...ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims '. Drudgereport: 'Mob' beatings at WI state fair...
'Hundreds of young black people beating white people'... [ Typical…  ]
Fairgoers 'pulled out of cars'...
'They were just going after white people'...
Heightened security...

[ .. (the following incident is my personal experience: black perps, white victims)‘.. while walking through Military Park (a sliver of a “park” - more a pedestrian thoroughfare/cement walks) in newark, new jersey on the way to the bank during lunch hour, I heard the clearly audible screams/cries of what turned out to be an old lady on the ground with blood streaming from her mouth. I ran toward the sound of the cries, the source of which I could not see because there were so many people in and about this thoroughfare so as to block any vision of the source of the cries. When I came to the woman, on the ground, blood streaming from her mouth, I asked what happened, to which she responded she had been hit in the mouth and knocked to the ground, her purse stolen/put inside her shopping bag, and she pointed out the criminal casually now walking across the main street. Nobody stopped to help her, many having passed her by. I slammed the thug to the ground so hard that, in light of all the blood and confusion (limbic system / adrenalin flow) I thought I had been stabbed (the blood was from his elbows hitting the pavement so hard - no one helped / a crowd gathered / an undercover cop happened along). When I testified at the Grand Jury Proceeding I made sure his threat on my life was set forth in prima facie fashion so as to maximize the DA’s position with both felonies ( he went to prison – pled out ). The other case I wrote about here ( This was included on my website in the Psychology forum discussion of ‘bystander effect’ / diffusion of responsibility. ) - Having had occasion to have run down a mugger in newark, n.j. who apparently had followed a girl from the bank on her way to the bursar to pay tuition, though in pretty good shape, I was astounded by how totally exhausting such a pursuit was, how much like rubber my arms were when I traded punches with the perpetrator, and truth be told, if I had a flashlight on my belt, I have little doubt that I would have probably used it to subdue the perp (a police officer here in California was the object of intense criticism for having used a flashlight to subdue a criminal after a long chase so I included that here) . The girl was not that seriously injured, did get her pocketbook and tuition back, and the criminal went to jail (where they belong). The other thing about such a pursuit that amazed me was that no one else assisted the girl or me despite being in a position to do so. I was also mugged by 4 blacks and 2 hispanics in an incident here in Los Angeles, CA. But, to be fair and balanced, the RICO litigation involves those uncivilized who consider themselves ‘whites’ http://albertpeia.com/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf  (predominantly but not exclusively jews / romans-italians / mobsters / government slugs). ]  N.Y. bumped from foreclosure panel Iowa’s attorney general says N.Y. official “actively worked to undermine” group’s efforts in foreclosure negotiation with banks. (Washington Post) [ Yeah! No surprise here! Yet new jersey’s ‘representative’ would have been equally disingenuous in corruptly carry out his / her duties, so ‘doody-full’ are they, from there!  Sen. Chuck Grassley  “It doesn’t make sense that an agency responsible for investigations would want to get rid of potential evidence…’ [ Oh but it does make sense Sen. Grassley:   Report: SEC lawyer exposed FBI informant (WP) [ Clearly, the sec liar (sic – lawyer) is one of those typically with a ‘pre or post’ arrangement, whether implicit or explicit; you know, that ubiquitous ‘bribe thing’ in pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt, fallen  america. Indeed, the scenario typifies that national drain / sinkhole new york (new york / new jersey metro) where, for example, FBI informants were routinely exposed by ‘italians’ in the new york d.a.’s office over the objection of the FBI, and were promptly ‘dispatched’/assassinated / hit by mafia / organized crime [ this was documented with authority in the book ‘Goombata: The Improbable Rise and Fall of John Gotti and His Gang’ Cummings / Volkman  ]

 

 

http://www.albertpeia.com 

 

 

Obama cant win  NATOs success in Libya proves that no good Obama .. goes unpunished. (Washington Post) [ Yeah! I think hes correct, using most of his words: Obama cant win  NATOs success in Libya proves that no good Obama .. goes unpunished. I mean come on, with ie., war crimes nation israel and despotic saudi arabia unscathed; not to mention the defacto bankruptcy of all members of the nato alliance and americas particularly among their war crimes, whos kidding whom? Yes, its true obama / nato cant win while theyre unequivocally losing!  Saying otherwise no longer means its true!  Poll puts Obama in dead heat with 4 GOP contenders (Washington Post) [ Wow! I dont know about that seems hard to reconcile that poll with wobamas record low approval ratings consonant with wobamas record low performance consonant with the nations record low prospects in large part owing to wobamas non-performance by deviating from campaign promises; and hence, his consequent consummate performance as bush failure 3.  Unions angry over Postal Service cuts They said any move to break labor contracts to lay off 120,000 would hurt the already ailing movement. (Washington Post) [ I reiterate my call for the well managed, efficient, and reliable company, UPS to take over the operation of the poorly managed, inefficient, and unreliable USPS. Postal Service seeking 20 percent staff cut EXCLUSIVE | In cost-cutting bid, USPS also proposes withdrawing employees from existing health and retirement plans and creating its own benefit programs. Congress would need to sign off. (Washington Post) [ I think its a great idea. Indeed, 50% would be substantially better. Even better yet, UPS should take over their entire operation. After all, UPS is well managed and efficient; and also, very reliable. On the other hand, the USPS is poorly managed, inefficient, and very unreliable: 
October 15, 2010 (*see infra {ultimately delivered by UPS})

                       ----------

 

*The foregoing and as indicated therein was previously send 9-14-10 but delivery confirmation was flawed as set forth below and my inquiries to the u.s. postal service rebuffed (I believe tampered with inasmuch as your office could not locate same). This cover letter (9-13-10) is on the 3 disks with navigable hyperlinks to the subject files for ease of reference, including the files in the RICO action as indicated. (10-15-10) I spoke with Rose, FBI, ADIC Secretary, who indicates once again that your office has not received the aforesaid and which can reasonably be presumed to have been tampered with, and hence, a violation of the federal statute concerning same. (Ultimately delivered by UPS) ]Report: DOJ investigating S&P's mortgage securities ratings Associated Press The Justice Department is investigating whether the agency improperly rated dozens of mortgage securities in the years leading up to the financial crisis. (Washington Post) [ There you go the retaliation the long awaited payback (quid pro quo witheld) for long overdue downgrade. They should be investigating themselves, the SEC ( SEC destroyed documents, senator says ), among numerous other fraudulent, illegal schemes, activities. 3 Top Crooks Still Roaming Free After the Economic Crash Wall St. Cheat Sheet  The global economy and stock markets took a nose dive in 2008. But that hasnt stopped some of the biggest masterminds from escaping a day of luxury…’ The "Crimes" That Wrecked The Markets  Forbes / Lenzner  ,  SEC accused of destroying files Former agency official says SEC violated federal law by destroying records of enforcement cases in which it decided not to file charges. (Washington Post) [ Duh, ya think? The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed!     SEC destroyed documents, senator says 17 Aug 2011 The Securities and Exchange Commission may have destroyed documents and compromised enforcement case ...   Grassley: Agency may have got rid of Goldman, Madoff documents   Ronald D. Orol, MarketWatch WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) The Securities and Exchange Commission may have destroyed documents and compromised enforcement cases involving activity at large banks and hedge funds during the height of the financial crisis in 2008, according to allegations made by a lawmaker on Wednesday. From what Ive seen, it looks as if the SEC might have sanctioned some level of case-related document destruction, said Sen. Chuck Grassley, Republican of Iowa, in a letter to the agencys chairman, Mary Schapiro. Sen. Chuck Grassley  It doesnt make sense that an agency responsible for investigations would want to get rid of potential evidence. If these charges are true, the agency needs to explain why it destroyed documents, how many documents it destroyed over what timeframe, and to what extent its actions were consistent with the law. Agency staff destroyed over 9,000 files related to preliminary agency investigations, according to a letter sent in July to Grassley, the top Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee, and obtained by MarketWatch. The allegations were made by SEC enforcement attorney, Darcy Flynn, in a letter to Grassley. Flynn is a current employee, and according to the letter, received a bonus for his past years work. Flynn alleges the SEC destroyed files related to matters being examined in important cases such as Bernard Madoff and a $50 billion Ponzi scheme he operated as well as an investigation involving Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS +0.33%   trading in American International Group credit-default swaps in 2009. Flynn also alleged that the agency destroyed documents and information collected for preliminary investigations at Wells Fargo & Co. WFC +1.34% , Bank of America Corp. BAC +0.81% , Citigroup C +0.13%  , Credit Suisse CS +0.38%  , Deutsche Bank DB +0.79%  Morgan Stanley MS -0.06%  and the now-bankrupt Lehman Brothers. The letter goes into particular detail about Deutsche Bank, the former employer of current SEC enforcement chief Robert Khuzami as well as former enforcement chiefs Gary Lynch and Richard Walker…’ Sen. Chuck Grassley  It doesnt make sense that an agency responsible for investigations would want to get rid of potential evidence…’ [ Oh but it does make sense Sen. Grassley:   Report: SEC lawyer exposed FBI informant (WP) [ Clearly, the sec liar (sic lawyer) is one of those typically with a pre or post arrangement, whether implicit or explicit; you know, that ubiquitous bribe thing in pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt, fallen  america. Indeed, the scenario typifies that national drain / sinkhole new york (new york / new jersey metro) where, for example, FBI informants were routinely exposed by italians in the new york d.a.s office over the objection of the FBI, and were promptly dispatched/assassinated / hit by mafia / organized crime [ this was documented with authority in the book Goombata: The Improbable Rise and Fall of John Gotti and His Gang Cummings / Volkman  ] Train Reading: The Stock Market Is Insane The Wall Street Journal ,   Welcome To The New Bear Market For Stocks  Forbes / Suttmeier ,  Dow/Gold Ratio Lowest Since 1987 Crash   Forbes /  Adrian Ash  ,   Ignore Buffett's Advice, Don't Buy Stocks Forbes /  Dohmen , The "Crimes" That Wrecked The Markets  Forbes / Lenzner  ,  Tech Leading Market Lower The Wall Street Journal  ,  Banks closed in Fla, Ga, Ill; 2011 total is 68   ,   No Recession Coming ... It's Already Here  Previous:8-18-11 Stocks rally off lows to suck suckers in and keep suckers sucked in on bad news (Jobless Claims, Inflation Rise More Than Expected CNBC) , fraud ( SEC destroyed documents, senator says    Crimes Wrecked The Markets    ), and b***s*** alone!  MKM Bracing For SPY To Drop 8% More; Nasdaq Nearing August Lows Barrons.com,  WHY NEW LOWS ARE LIKELY  8-18-11 Maierhofer, Is It 2008 Again? Looking at the Summer Crash of 2011 Gayed A real bear market has begun …’ ,  Abandon Ship?[The USS Titanic] Yes, Because of These 5 Bearish Icebergs ... McGill ,  There's A Recession Coming According To The Data at Forbes  ,  HP, Dell hammered as tech-spending outlook darkens   JDSU, NetApp, disappointing figures, shares hit hard in after-hours trade   Dell braces investors for a bumpy road Dell makes a case on why it can better weather an upcoming storm  ,   S&P says sell Google's shares after Motorola deal  ,  STOCKS FALL AFTER FLOOD OF BAD NEWS: Here's What You Need To Know  Joe Weisenthal ,   Stocks Slip On Concern Over Europe's Debt, U.S. Data  ,  Watch Out: 2011 Looks A Lot Like The Market Top In 2007 Sean Hanlon Take A Lesson From 2007 And Sell Stocks Now at Forbes, [video] Trader: We Could Test 1120 Lows at TheStreet.com   In a Downtrend, Sell a Rally (Daily FX)     Latest: Economist Who Predicted Market Crash Warns of 2012 Aftershock. See More Here.    Famed economist predicts economic calamity in 2012. See the evidence.Newsmax http://w3.newsmax.com/a/aftershockb/video.cfm?promo_code=CA79-1      50% unemployment, 90% stock market drop, 100% inflation. See the Evidence (Newsmax.com)   Five Reason Stocks Are Crashing, Tips to Prepare for Meltdown (Moneynews) Unthinkable Poised to Happen on Wall Street. See Disturbing Charts. (Newsmax.com)  US Recession Is Guaranteed: Expert CNBC.com 

SHARE YOUR OPINION ON THE DEBT LIMIT
Dear Congresswoman Roybal-Allard:

The following is my comment to an LA Times article regarding a Justice Department cover-up! As for your inquiry, all I think about day and night is a long overdue resolution to the RICO litigation as set forth therein:

ATF Chief Melson:Justice Department trying to shield officials (LATimes) Serrano

 

I believe him!

 I truly empathize with the ATF in terms of government cover-ups, notably by even the DOJ. You’ll recognize some familiar names (ie., Alito, Trump, Freeh (Louis Freeh now has dual citizenship with Italy), and some familiar crimes (ie., drug money laundering, etc. – real cash cow for gov’t ops, bribes, etc.). [Did you know this about the following ATF Agents who were probably viewed as loose ends: Steve Willis, Robert Williams, Todd McKeahan & Conway LeBleu:   Died February 28, 1993 by gunfire at Waco. All four were examined by a pathologist and died from identical wounds to the left temple. All four had been body guards for Bill Clinton, three while campaigning for President and when he was Governor of Arkansas.They also were the ONLY 4 BATF agents killed at Waco. ]

 

 

 

Heres some real, complicit cover-up / fraud on the part of the federal government, et als:

 

October 15, 2010 (*see infra {ultimately delivered by UPS})

 

 

Steven M. Martinez, Assistant Director In Charge
Federal Bureau of Investigation, USDOJ
11000 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 1700

Los Angeles, CA 90024

 

 

Dear Sir:

 

I enclose herewith 3 copies of the within DVD rom autorun disk (which will open in your computers browser) as per your offices request as made this day (the disk and contents have been scanned by Avast, McAfee, and Norton which Ive installed on my computer to prevent viral attacks / infection and are without threat). I also include 1 copy of the DVD as filed with the subject court as referenced therein (which files are also included on the aforesaid 3 disks in a separate folder named 112208opocoan). The (civil) RICO action (as youre aware, the RICO Act is a criminal statute which provides a civil remedy, including treble damages and attorney fees, as an incentive for private prosecution of said claims probably owing to the fact that the USDOJ seems somewhat overwhelmed and in need of such assistance given the seriousness and prevalence of said violations of law which have a corrupting influence on the process, and which corruption is pervasive). A grievance complaint against Coan was also filed concurrently with the subject action and held in abeyance pending resolution of the action which was illegally dismissed without any supporting law and in contravention of the Order of The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge, USDC, District Connecticut. The files below the horizontal rule are the referenced documents as filed. (Owing to the damage to the financial interests of both the U.S. and the District of Congresswoman Roybal-Allard, viz., Los Angeles, the Qui Tam provisions of the Federal False Claims Act probably would apply and I would absent resolution seek to refer the within to a firm with expertise in that area of the law with which I am not familiar).

 

 

The document in 5 pages under penalty of perjury I was asked to forward to the FBI office in New Haven is probably the best and most concise summary of the case  RICO Summary to FBI Under Penalty of Perjury at Their Request (5 pages)      [  ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf   http://albertpeia.com/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf          ].

 

 

The correspondence I received from the Congresswoman by way of email attachment (apparent but typical problem with my mail) along with my response thereto is included on the 3 disks as     fbicorrespondencereyes.htm     .   With regard to the calls to the FBIs LA and New Haven, CT offices: There was one call to the LA office and I was referred to the Long Beach, CA office where I personally met with FBI Agent Jeff Hayes to whom I gave probative evidentiary documents of the money laundering which he confirmed as indicative of same (he was transferred from said office within approximately a month of said meeting and his location was not disclosed to me upon inquiry). The matter was assigned to FBI Agent Ron Barndollar and we remained in touch for in excess of a decade until he abruptly retired (our last conversation prior to his retirement related to the case and parenthetically, Rudy Giuliani whose father I stated had been an enforcer for the mob to which he registered disbelief and requested I prove it, which I did he served 12 years in prison, aggravated assault/manslaughter? and no, there is no Chinese wall of separation Andrew Maloneys the one that prosecuted gotti).

 

 

In contradistinction to the statement in said correspondence, there is a plethora of information including evidence supporting the claims set forth in the    RICO VERIFIED COMPLAINT    (see infra). Such includes and as set forth in the case, inter alia,

 

 

 

 

There is applicable insurance / surety coverage and neither LA, nor creditors, nor I should continue to have been damaged by this brazened corrupt and illegal scenario, which should be resolved in accordance with the meaningful rules of law apposite thereto.

 

 

Sincerely,

 

 

Albert L. Peia

611 E. 5th Street, #404

Los Angeles, CA 90013

(213) 219-**** (cell phone)

(213) 622-3745 (listed land line but there are unresolved problems with the line, computer connection may be the reason but I hesitate to chance greater non-performance / worsening by their fix so cell phone best for contact).{recent change 323-786-6651 -magic jack}

 

 

                       ----------

 

*The foregoing and as indicated therein was previously send 9-14-10 but delivery confirmation was flawed as set forth below and my inquiries to the u.s. postal service rebuffed (I believe tampered with inasmuch as your office could not locate same). This cover letter (9-13-10) is on the 3 disks with navigable hyperlinks to the subject files for ease of reference, including the files in the RICO action as indicated. (10-15-10) I spoke with Rose, FBI, ADIC Secretary, who indicates once again that your office has not received the aforesaid and which can reasonably be presumed to have been tampered with, and hence, a violation of the federal statute concerning same. (Ultimately delivered by UPS) ]

 

 

http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf       http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm        Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holders vows to target financial fraud  WP Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown.    America Is a Failed State Because It Wont Prosecute Financial Crime  Washingtons Blog / the grim economic reality   [  http://albertpeia.com/grimreality.htm           

CRIME STATS(u.s.No.1)

Rank  

Countries 

Amount 

 

# 1  

United States:

11,877,218 

 

# 2  

United Kingdom:

6,523,706 

 

# 3  

Germany:

6,507,394 

 

UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE...      ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims ' Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holders vows to target financial fraud  WP | Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown.        


THE OBAMA DECEPTION
  http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv    

 


http://www.albertpeia.com 

 

 

 

Sincerely and Regards,

 

Al Peia

 

 

 

http://www.albertpeia.com 

 

 

 

 

 

9-13-11 NEWS / TOPICS





The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed!  Train Reading: The Stock Market Is (Criminally) InsaneThe Wall Street Journal  ,  This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits because theres much worse to come! This is a suckers market contrived as with this suckers rally to suck suckers in and keep suckers sucked in and is based on fraud / manipulated programmed hft (high frequency trades see, ie., What to Expect Next From the Markets , Daves Daily, infra ) and b***s*** alone! [ american technology is horrendous and vastly overrated! I really mean it; and thats reality, which speaks volumes about the pathetic state of the world ,   Don't Trust Wall Street and this Market  ETFguide ,  Congress budget agency warns panel of economic ills  ,  Nearly 1 in 6 Americans in poverty, Census says  ,  Cisco cuts long-term sales growth forecast  ,  International alarm over euro zone crisis grows  ,  Why Can't Wall Street Be Honest With The Public? Forbes  ,  Venture capital veteran Perkins sees danger ahead  , These Wall Street Firms are About to Start Firing People Like Crazy  ,   Same Alan Greenspan Who Warned Against Budget Surplus Now Warns About Deficit  ,  ETF Redemptions Highest Since 2008: Report ETF Trends , 20 Signs Of Imminent Financial Collapse In Europe The Economic Collapse ,  The 2nd Edge Of Modern Financial Repression: Manipulating Inflation Indexes To Steal From Retirees & Public Workers Gold Seek  Previous:The latest b***s*** story into the close is rich, but not as in wealthy. One interviewee / pundit even preposterously referred to the Marco Polo effect, viz., that communist Chinas rumored to be about to save one of the PIIGS, italy but whos going to save communist china really some very bad karma for communist china just round the corner! Dont forget, the markets rallied literally many hundreds of points owing to that spin / b***s*** called the euro solution, etc., which of course, never existed in reality, but great fraud points (that computerized hf commissioned churn-and-earn, up and down, get you now and get you later). Then the so-called technical support levels based on much worse than spun fundamentals / reality. Its the other way around, fools fundamentals create technical support levels, not vice versa. Unprecedented Monthly Volume Sell-Off Suggests Now's the Time to Take Shelter at Minyanville Kevin A. Tuttle Sep 12, 2011  ,  Preparing for a Credit Crisis at Minyanville  John Mauldin  ,  What's the Long-Term Outlook for Stocks and The Economy? ETFguide   Simon Maierhofer, September 12, 2011  ,    ]     Prepare For Recession And Bear Market at Forbes Sy Harding, Brace yourself for a recession ,  Senate (Quietly) Approves $500 Billion Increase in Borrowing Authority Sep 9th, 2011 by News (WSJ Blogs) PG View: Shhhhh. Dont tell anyone, but we blew through that initial $400 bln debt ceiling hike in about a month /  Europe on the Verge of a Political Breakdown News , 4 Bearish Mega Trends  Simon Maierhofer / S&P 1,100 And Lower - More Likely Than you Think  , STOCKS DEMOLISHED, EUROPE NEAR BREAKING POINT: Here's What You Need To Know Business Insider , Ominous Bear Flag Pattern Suggests S&P 500 At 1,000  Scott Redler ,  What to Expect Next From the Markets Minyanville  Jeffrey Cooper Conclusion: It looks like a program was run using the least amount of dollars to goose the indices by focusing on some big cap names like Apple, Amazon, Baidu, IBM, and Caterpillar,  Daves Daily:.. The HAL 9000s have been doing business as HFTs (High Frequency Traders) launching many buy or sell programs using complex algorithms which can drive prices on indexes higher or lower in dramatic fashion. One of their great acts is called "quote stuffing". It's another illegal activity which the SEC hasn't quite figured out. It's as futile for them as the illegal fee-driven recent end-of-quarter price jam-job.., etc.. Keep in mind the  r word (recession- actually should be d word for depression) subtracting out the understated inflationary price increases (deflating growth with realistic inflation deflator), were already there ( see, Burt Dohmen, Financial Crisis Phase II Is Ahead at Forbes, infra)           7 Reasons Why New Lows are Likely  ETF Guide   ,  Albert Edwards Has Another Reason You Should Worry About Profits The Wall Street Journal, Mark Gongloff   ,   Chart Shock: The REAL Unemployment Rate Is 22% The Daily Bail September 2, 2011 ,  Deja Vu All Over Again: Total US Debt Passes Debt Ceiling In Under One Month Since Extension  Sep 2nd, 2011 News (ZeroHedge)  ,   Global Recession: Right Here, Right Now at Minyanville  Mike Shedlock Sep 02, 2011  ,    Fearing An Even Worse Inflationary Depression Ahead Bob Chapman | The debauching of currencies worldwide goes on with great abandon. Previous: Typical (suckers rally into the close on still lingering hopes for more fed funny money thats a detriment / negative to all but the frauds on wall street and has been a dismal policy failure) window-dressed end of month based on bad news, fraud, and b***s*** alone watch for fake data / reports out of their sheer desperation  ,  Beware Dow In September: Do You Believe The Data?   [ NO! I DONT BELIEVE THE GOVERNMENT DATA ( Famed economist predicts economic calamity in 2012x   http://w3.newsmax.com/a/aftershockb/video.cfm?promo_code=CA79-1    , NOR DO I BELIEVE THE NON-GOVERNMENT DATA (Accounting Gimmics Resurface as Growth Flounders at TheStreet Rebekah Smith, infra)  ,   Global Recession Likely, Depression Possible: Economist  Aug 31st, 2011 by News (CNBC)  ,    Ignore Buffett's Advice, Don't Buy Stocks Forbes /  Dohmen , The "Crimes" That Wrecked The Markets  Forbes / Lenzner  ,  What to Expect Next From the Markets at Minyanville  Jeffrey Cooper Aug 29, 2011  Conclusion: It looks like a program was run using the least amount of dollars to goose the indices by focusing on some big cap names like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Baidu (BIDU), IBM (IBM), and Caterpillar (CAT) on Friday. That is why the market is so dangerous here…‘  Arguments for Being in the Crash Camp   Conor Sen  Aug 29, 2011 If you want to take risk, only own things you're willing to own in a down 20-30% tape, because that's what we could see over the next month...  , Economic / Financial Collapse Imminent Stansberry  Investment Advisory http://www.albertpeia.com/stansberrysinvestmentadvisory.flv    Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011 Dow will Fall to 3,800 4,500 by 2012 Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the latest. U.S. Dollar will Decline Housing will Decline by 40 60% from Todays Levels Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010 and 2012).  Fed Economists Predict A 15 Year Bear Market For Stocks Aug 23rd, 2011 News (BusinessInsider)  ,  End Of Cycle Smelling Like Dow 3K, Gold 3K  Forbes /  Bill Bonner   ,  No Recession Coming ... It's Already Here   , Financial Crisis Phase II Is Ahead at Forbes Bert Dohmen  In late 2007, I wrote the book Prelude To Meltdown, predicting the global crisis that occurred the following year.  I now see a similar confluence of events that warns of phase II of the global crisis My work shows that the new recession has started.”… Over the past 33 years, we have called the start of every recession, often on the exact month, or within one month, of the official start as determined one year later by the official arbiter of recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) However, inflation is far understated for political reasons. Currently, the GDP deflator is 1.8%, which hardly reflects the true rise in prices. Therefore, what is counted as growth, is actually price increases. Actual inflation, according to free market economists who calculate inflation as it was done in 1980 before the politician re-engineered it, is now more than 11%. Using that to adjust GDP for inflation, would show that the economy is now in a very sharp contraction…’ ,  NOR DO I BELIEVE THE NON-GOVERNMENT DATA (Accounting Gimmics Resurface as Growth Flounders at TheStreet Rebekah Smith) at this point of abounding desperation for both. ] Murray Coleman If you believe in seasonal factors, betting on the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) wouldnt seem like the best play about this time of year. Over the past 100 years, the Dow itself has averaged a drop of 0.8% in September, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Over the last 50 years, the Dow has averaged a fall of 0.79%; in the past 20 years the benchmark has typically dropped by 0.60% during the month…’  

 

 

Obama's Legacy: A Failed Recovery & Double-Dip Recession  Forbes / Mariotti  ‘…There will be no significant recovery in the United States of America while Barack Obama is President.  The evidence is overwhelming:  everything Obama has tried to fuel a recovery (with his Democratic allies in Congress) has failed.  Statistics claiming jobs saved by the stimulus package were mostly fiction, and cost American taxpayers about $275,000 each.  Nearly 2-1/2 million fewer Americans have jobs than before the stimulus. Barack Obama has been President for 30 months2-1/2 years. He spent the first year obsessed with passing Obamacare, a program that doesnt create jobs, but might destroy a lot of them.  He bailed out GM, but many believe that his interference didnt save GM; it merely cost taxpayers an extra $15-20 billion, and stole from legitimate investors to buy off the UAW.  His broken campaign promises are too numerous to list.  At some point, his statute of limitations on blaming Bush runs out…’   ,   The Bear Market Rally Has Begun at Minyanville   Toby Connor Aug 30, 2011 ‘…Investors need to be prepared. This is going to be a very, very convincing rally. The tendency is going to be to buy into the media hype -- that this was nothing more than a severe correction in an ongoing bull market. This was not a correction. This was the first leg down in a new cyclical (secular) bear market. And like all bear markets it will be subject to violent countertrend rallies that toy with traders' emotions, and ultimately cause investors to ride the bear all the way to the bottom…’    Scandal scarred commerce dept. report on consumer spending with anemic income figures (typically as always unworthy of belief as unbelievable anything the government says in their desperation) spurs suckers rally (along with some short covering) to suck suckers in and keep suckers sucked in.  Massive Understatement: Mohamed El-Erians reply to Frank Motek 1070am regarding particularly the 300+ point swing to the upside today, (theyre) confused! Indeed they are! But when youre commissioning those manipulated computer programmed high-frequency-trade swings, churning and earning at lightning speed, such euphemistic criticism falls short with the impact of water off a ducks back.      Moreover, how pathetic are they, those Pavlov dogs on wall street salivating at the mere prospect of a QE handout ultimately at taxpayer expense, in one form or another. Even more pathetic is the so-called rally based on a purported rethink of fedspeak alleged  to be so filled with latent / hidden meaning of a form of QE welfare down the road. Those pathetic titans of capitalism; aka, the frauds of wall street.  Never mind that the QEs have failed miserably and at great costs (inflation, financial, economic, etc.) and detriment to all but the frauds on wall street by way of their manipulated computer-programmed ( high frequency trading) commissioned churn-and-earn. Wall streets rise has been among the causes of and comcomitant to americas decline / demise. Remember, there is no modern day alchemy that spins worthless paper into gold except fraudulently for the frauds on wall street whove literally oftimes done exactly that; cashing out for hard currency and gold, precious metals, at everyone elses expense including main street. Theyre just not that important and represent, like termites eating away at the nations foundation, a drag on the economy, the nation as one would expect from parasites such as they are. So whats changed of significance? Nothing! Absolutely nothing; yet a manipulated computer-programmed ( high frequency trading bots ) churn-and-earn suckers rally based on desperation, bad news, fraud and b***s*** alone to suck suckers in and keep suckers sucked in. Horrific news on the economic front particularly since the anemic (revised downward and I think much worse than reported) 1% GDP growth is all owing to hefty price increases / inflation, fudged and not reported accurately. Financial Crisis Phase II Is Ahead at Forbes Bert Dohmen  In late 2007, I wrote the book Prelude To Meltdown, predicting the global crisis that occurred the following year.  I now see a similar confluence of events that warns of phase II of the global crisis My work shows that the new recession has started.”… Over the past 33 years, we have called the start of every recession, often on the exact month, or within one month, of the official start as determined one year later by the official arbiter of recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) However, inflation is far understated for political reasons. Currently, the GDP deflator is 1.8%, which hardly reflects the true rise in prices. Therefore, what is counted as growth, is actually price increases. Actual inflation, according to free market economists who calculate inflation as it was done in 1980 before the politician re-engineered it, is now more than 11%. Using that to adjust GDP for inflation, would show that the economy is now in a very sharp contraction…’  This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits because theres much worse to come! ,  Despite being glad that Apple has survived (though outlook now dimmed regardless of rhetoric and beyond the Jobs retirement), american technology is horrendous and vastly overrated! I really mean it, and thats reality, which speaks volumes about the pathetic state of the world ,  Famed economist predicts economic calamity in 2012. See the evidence.Newsmax  http://w3.newsmax.com/a/aftershockb/video.cfm?promo_code=CA79-1      50% unemployment, 90% stock market drop, 100% inflation. See the Evidence (Newsmax.com  ,       Bernanke - Man of Mystery: Dave's Daily at TheStreet  Bernanke did what a lot of people expected him to do -- speak softly but carry a big printing press. After being down nearly 200 points the DJIA rallied to close higher by 135 points. Pundits shrugged embracing the idea if something was really wrong Bernanke would have acted; besides, bulls' reasoned stocks are cheap based on trailing PEs of around 12. Away from that was more crummy economic news with GDP printing at only 1% growth. This may be revised lower again like most other indicators of late…’  (Daves Daily:.. The HAL 9000s have been doing business as HFTs (High Frequency Traders) launching many buy or sell programs using complex algorithms which can drive prices on indexes higher or lower in dramatic fashion. One of their great acts is called "quote stuffing". It's another illegal activity which the SEC hasn't quite figured out. It's as futile for them as the illegal fee-driven recent end-of-quarter price jam-job..)   Play It Again Sam: Dave's Daily  [ As always, Dave is spot-on as an astute, knowledgeable, seasoned veteran of the markets. ] Thursday was another great show starring Jobless Claims, Warren Buffet, HAL 9000s, Steve Jobs and, of course, Da Boyz running the CRIMEX (COMEX and CME) on precious metals options expiration.The spin on Jobless Claims data was prior claims were adjusted higher making recent higher claims look not so bad especially when you add Verizon workers. Warren Buffett entered from stage left with a $5 billion investment in Bank of America giving him 6% interest tax-free (a "coddled" billionaire?) and making he and Berkshire a new TARP program. The HAL 9000s have been doing business as HFTs (High Frequency Traders) launching many buy or sell programs using complex algorithms which can drive prices on indexes higher or lower in dramatic fashion. One of their great acts is called "quote stuffing". It's another illegal activity which the SEC hasn't quite figured out. It's as futile for them as the illegal fee-driven recent end-of-quarter price jam-job. One of these actions was featured courtesy of our friends at Zero Hedge and depicted below as it occurred Thursday afternoon. The first chart features the quotes per second (NOTE: one instance exceeding 800 quotes per second). The next chart shows the market's simultaneous reaction. http://www.thestreet.com/tsc/daves/082511/image002.jpg  Steve Jobs sadly is retiring from his leading role as Apple CEO but the stock hardly budged given the products and brand are already well-known and his retirement was much anticipated. Last, but not least certainly, was the performance of Da Boyz production of gold price manipulation…’ Previous: Manipulated computer-programmed ( high frequency trading bots ) churn-and-earn suckers rally into the close based on desperation, fraud and b***s*** alone to suck suckers in and keep suckers sucked in!   Stocks up on government report (I consistently and here now again warn of fake reports / data) on durables far better than expectations / reality100% better? I dont think so! Come on sheer desperation at best! Steve Jobs resigns from Apple, Cook becomes CEO - SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Silicon Valley legend Steve Jobs on Wednesday resigned as chief executive of Apple Inc in a stunning move that ended his 14-year reign at the technology giant he co-founded i... [ Far more than just a Silicon Valley legend, Steve Jobs literally saved Apple from extinction Im truly glad he saved Apple, my first computer (1986 - apple IIc for word processing / data based records / forms / templates / data which I interfaced with an electric typewriter for letter quality) and for that all should be thankful. Apple is the Nasdaq (40% weighting) and quite more, that now was! Thats past tense. Steve Jobs goes out a big winner as indeed he should! Yet, make no mistake, as one might expect, his timing was impeccable inasmuch as without his uniquely inspired innovation, competition moving in, and particularly the coming debacle / crisis the worst of which lies ahead, things are not looking up, in and for pervasively corrupt / defacto bankrupt america particularly, euphemistically speaking. ]  End Of Cycle Smelling Like Dow 3K, Gold 3K  Forbes /  Bill Bonner  Our view [ the correct view ] is that the bear market began in January 2000. The feds fought it off with two huge extravaganzas of spending the first beginning in 2001 the other after 2008. Stimulus does wonders for stock prices but it no longer works for the economy that sustains them. For every dollar that the Fed has put to work to fight the crisis since 2008, for example, it has produced only 80 cents worth of GDP. It didnt work……that the recession of 08-09 in the US never actually ended……and that stocks will go down over the next 5-10 years until they finally hit a real bottom…’  Ted Weisberg to Frank Motek 1070am could think of no reason for the market to be up (BAD NEWS: new home sales down, oil prices up - China's manufacturing index showed a decline, the seventh straight month of declines for German manufacturing and the first decline in two years for European manufacturing activity, in u.s. a big miss on new home sales and a decline in the Richmond Fed's manufacturing index.) with some prodding ultimately a begrudging mention of that meaningless fudge term oversold which of course is no reason at all particularly since the market is substantially overvalued so take this as an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits because theres much worse to come! ,  Fed Economists Predict A 15 Year Bear Market For Stocks Aug 23rd, 2011 News (BusinessInsider) The San Francisco Fed has come out with a research paper connecting the dots between the retiring baby boomers and stock prices. The thinking is that the boomers will divest themselves of stocks as they retire and eat into their savings.These conclusions are just horrendous! The suggestion is that there is a 15-year bear market in front of us. Multiples will fall by 50%!!…“We do see it as something of a headwind as the economy is attempting to recover. These deep thinkers have it completely wrong. They think that the key to having a stronger economy is higher stock prices. So they spend all of their efforts dreaming up ways to keep the S&P ramping up. I think it is the exact other way around. If the economy were to be growing [ you see, thats the problem in large part the economy wont really be growing (huge price increases / inflation for the illusion), among a multitude of other problems ], it is reasonable to assume that stock prices might rise. It is completely false to assume that attempts to jigger stocks higher will lead to a stronger economy [ This is true, but the writer ignores the criminal fraud factor as the raison detre for the jiggering. ]  ,  Dow:Gold Ratio and the Secular Bear Market Minyanville  Toby Connor Stocks.. after.. bear market rally, will roll over and continue down into a final four-year cycle low..Depending on whether or not the Fed tries to fight the cleansing process, or Ben Bernanke tries to stop the bear market with another round of quantitative easing, stocks should either test or breach the March '09 lows. Either way I expect that 2012 will go down as one of the worst years in human history. Certainly in the same category as 1932, if not worse …’  ,  american technology is horrendous and vastly overrated! ,  Famed economist predicts economic calamity in 2012. See the evidence.Newsmax  http://w3.newsmax.com/a/aftershockb/video.cfm?promo_code=CA79-1      50% unemployment, 90% stock market drop, 100% inflation. See the Evidence (Newsmax.com  ,   Accounting Gimmics Resurface as Growth Flounders at TheStreet Rebekah Smith, director of financial advisory services at accounting and consulting firm GBQ consulting, says accounting tricks and schemes are likely to start unraveling as we head into 2012 and the lag effect catches up. "The typical accounting fraud goes on for about 18 to 26 months before it is uncovered. The frauds that took place in 2009 are not going to surface until later in 2011 or into 2012."   ,  Morgan Stanley Biggest Welfare Recipient as Federal Reserve Lent Banks $1.2 Trillion During Financial Crisis Wall St. Cheat Sheet  ,    Social Security disability on verge of insolvency     ,  Welcome To The New Bear Market For Stocks  Forbes / Suttmeier ,  Dow/Gold Ratio Lowest Since 1987 Crash   Forbes /  Adrian Ash  ,   Ignore Buffett's Advice, Don't Buy Stocks Forbes /  Dohmen , The "Crimes" That Wrecked The Markets  Forbes / Lenzner  ,  Tech Leading Market Lower The Wall Street Journal  ,  Banks closed in Fla, Ga, Ill; 2011 total is 68   ,   No Recession Coming ... It's Already Here   Minyanville's T3 Daily Recap: Market Gives Back Weekend Gains Amid US Bank Woes at Minyanville  ,Previous:8-18-11 Stocks rally off lows to suck suckers in and keep suckers sucked in on bad news (Jobless Claims, Inflation Rise More Than Expected CNBC) , fraud ( SEC destroyed documents, senator says    Crimes Wrecked The Markets    ), and b***s*** alone!  MKM Bracing For SPY To Drop 8% More; Nasdaq Nearing August Lows Barrons.com,  WHY NEW LOWS ARE LIKELY  Maierhofer, Is It 2008 Again? Looking at the Summer Crash of 2011 Gayed A real bear market has begun …’ ,  Abandon Ship?[The USS Titanic] Yes, Because of These 5 Bearish Icebergs ... McGill ,  There's A Recession Coming According To The Data at Forbes  ,  HP, Dell hammered as tech-spending outlook darkens   JDSU, NetApp, disappointing figures, shares hit hard in after-hours trade   Dell braces investors for a bumpy road Dell makes a case on why it can better weather an upcoming storm  ,   S&P says sell Google's shares after Motorola deal  ,  STOCKS FALL AFTER FLOOD OF BAD NEWS: Here's What You Need To Know  Joe Weisenthal ,   Stocks Slip On Concern Over Europe's Debt, U.S. Data  ,  Watch Out: 2011 Looks A Lot Like The Market Top In 2007 Sean Hanlon Take A Lesson From 2007 And Sell Stocks Now at Forbes, [video] Trader: We Could Test 1120 Lows at TheStreet.com   In a Downtrend, Sell a Rally (Daily FX)     Latest: Economist Who Predicted Market Crash Warns of 2012 Aftershock. See More Here.    )   Five Reason Stocks Are Crashing, Tips to Prepare for Meltdown (Moneynews) Unthinkable Poised to Happen on Wall Street. See Disturbing Charts. (Newsmax.com)  US Recession Is Guaranteed: Expert CNBC.com  So whats changed of significance (other than previous full moon and consequent effects on the lunatic wall street frauds) Nothing! Absolutely nothing, yet a manipulated computer-programmed ( high frequency trading bots ) churn-and-earn suckers rally based on desperation, fraud and b***s*** alone (ie., backward looking, revisions, faked data, etc.) to keep suckers suckered, which makes for an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits since theres much, much worse to come!     Regulators close 64th U.S. bank this year , U.S. consumer sentiment grim but retail sales jump with gasoline prices up  ,  [$$] 'Junk' Bonds Point to Recession  , Stock Market Parallels to 2000 and 2008 Should Not Be Ignored   , How Low Will Stocks Go?   Michael Kahn, who writes the Getting Technical column for Barrons.com and the QuickTakes Pro blog, has long argued were in a secular (long-term) bear market, and he thinks the cyclical bull is over, too. Like Arbeter, he sees 1,010 to 1,050 as the next level of support for the S&P, and below that 930.  50% unemployment & 90% Dow crash also predicted. Newsmax   Tech up? Is this some kind of a joke? Absolute confirmation of dire prospects worldwide since american tech is horrendous.  (Newsmax.com) Robert Wiedemers new book, Aftershock: Protect Yourself and Profit in the Next Global Financial Meltdown, quickly is becoming the survival guide for the 21st century. And Newsmaxs eye-opening Aftershock Survival Summit video, with exclusive interviews and prophetic predictions, already has affected millions around the world but not without ruffling a few feathers.    [ The instant  video on the economic / financial collapse from Stansberry and Associates is so well researched  and succinctly presented  that Ive archived same on my website; also, because the facts and views presented comport with the facts and views Ive presented on my site which I believe to be correct. This is a must-view, must-see that I strongly recommend!    
The complete url:     http://www.albertpeia.com/stansberrysinvestmentadvisory.flv   http://www.albertpeia.com/stansberrysinvestmentadvisory.mp4    Written text of presentation (without pictures  / charts)]  [A lot of pre-election year obfuscation, manipulation but the debacle is already here:  Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
Dow will Fall to 3,800
4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the latest.
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40
60% from Todays Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010 and 2012).
   Dow 1000? Robert Prechter Thinks So      Prechter Reiterrates Call For Dow 1,000, Even As Surging Gold And Plunging Dollar Leave Much Credibility To Be Desired        Bulls Go to Extremes: Don't Buy the "Breakout", Sell It, Prechter Says     Russell: This Is One Of The Largest Tops In Stock Market History  My old friend, Bob Prechter, is talking about Dow 400. I used to think this was an absurd joke. I no longer think its a joke. The ultimate result will be a primary bear market shocking in duration and extent. …’     Forecasts from Dent, Napier, and then Prechter: Depression is Imminent The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to below 777 which was the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and quite likely drop below 400 at one or more times during the bear market.  [ 8 More Reasons Why You Should Be Deeply Concerned That The U.S. Government Has Lost Its AAA Credit Rating The Economic Collapse ‘…  #8 The U.S. national debt continues to get worse by the day.  Just check out what economics professor Laurence J. Kotlikoff recently told NPR.If you add up all the promises that have been made for spending obligations, including defense expenditures, and you subtract all the taxes that we expect to collect, the difference is $211 trillion. Thats the fiscal gap ..   Why You Shouldn't Buy Into This Plunge Forbes/O'NeilThe market is building momentum to the downside.]    Russell Napier is the author of the book Anatomy of the Bear, a professor at the Edinburgh Business School and a consultant to CLSA Ltd. which is one of the top research houses in Asia. Napiers research indicates (and I paraphrase) that: The S&P 500 will Decline to 400 by 2014 (the Dow 30 to 3800) The S&P 500 will then undergo a major crash that will see U.S. equity prices bottom at almost 50% below current levels (i.e. to 400 or less; the Dow 30 to 3800 or less) sometime around 2014 as Tobins q drops to 0.3 signaling the end of the bear market, as it has done at the end of the four largest U.S. market declines in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982. U.S. Treasury Sales Collapse Leading to End of U.S. Dollar as Reserve Currency Robert R. Prechter Jr. is author of a number of newsletters and books including Elliott Wave Principle (1978) in which he predicted the super bull market of the 1980s; At the Crest of the Tidal Wave A Forecast of the Great Bear Market (1995) in which he predicted a slow motion economic earthquake, brought about by a great asset mania, that would register 11 on the financial Richter scale causing a collapse of historic proportions; and Conquer the Crash: You can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression (2002) in which he described the economic cataclysm that we are just beginning to experience and advised how to position ones self financially during that period of time. Depression is Imminent The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to below 777 which was the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and quite likely drop below 400 at one or more times during the bear market.    Watch for fake govt data / reports owing to political desperation!  This an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits, particularly if you missed Tuesday or May, since theres much, much worse to come! Thursday, Aug.11, 2011: what changed from yesterday which warranted a more than 500 point plunge with paper stocks still over-valued? Well, some bad news labeled as better than expected 1) 7,000 fewer jobless claims than expected (just a little over 1% better even if you believe them I dont) 2) Cisco shows results better than expected 3) Record monthly trade deficit  [ What Recovery? Forbes we cant call this a recovery. Theres no reason to celebrate when a job report was better than expected. Why? Because the expectation was abysmal to begin with. Cisco Systems Incs quarterly results edged past Wall Streets scaled-back expectations ...They beat a low bar. A lot of it is coming from cost cutting, which we anticipated. In that sense its a relief, Joanna Makris of Mizuho Securities USA told Reuters. Cisco, which depends on government spending for about a fifth of its revenue, said in July it would cut 15 percent of its workforce and sell a set-top box factory in Mexico.. Cisco bulls may underestimate tough road ahead Randewich. ] Tuesday, Aug.9,2011: what changed from yesterday which warranted a more than 600 point plunge with paper stocks still over-valued and a 545 bounce off of afternoon lows? Nothing! Absolutely nothing, yet a manipulated computer-programmed churn-and-earn suckers rally based on fraud and b***s*** alone to keep suckers suckered, which makes for AN ESPECIALLY GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL / TAKE PROFITS SINCE THERES MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!  [ Is this some parallel universe where unfounded criticism is levied at S&P for the downgrade when theyve actually cut the pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt disunited states a break by not rating what america truly is; viz., junk status for the paper / liabilities / obligations that cannot and will not be paid (or the equivalent vis-à-vis what would be in worse than evermore worthless Weimar dollars or some other ponzi-like subterfuge, obfuscation). The amounts are insurmountable going forward. They point to Moodys and Fitch; yet, lets not kid ourselves, S&P is the 800 pound gorilla in this world among rating agencies and moodys, fitch have substantially diminished themselves as entities consistent with their mission and purpose and as well, their credibility. I mean, come on! Consider the pressure that was and continues to be applied. Moodys and fitch, quite frankly, folded. Chinas rating agency has already downgraded u.s. paper and theyre holding (huge amounts of that u.s. junk); and hence, against their own interest. Wake up! Wall Street closes worst week since '08 with wild day NEW YORK (Reuters) S&P on U.S. downgrade: Debt pact 'falls short' - Reuters  S&P downgrades US credit rating from AAA   S&P Shocks the U.S. with Credit Downgrade to AA+ from Prestigious AAA Rating  Wall St. Cheat Sheet    What Recovery? Forbes   ‘…we cant call this a recovery. Theres no reason to celebrate when a job report was better than expected. Why? Because the expectation was abysmal to begin with. And while were at it, we cant ignore increasing sovereign debt problems in Europe…’  Top 3 Reasons Markets Erased the Years Gains Wall St. Cheat Sheet  1) Japan and Europe 2) Unemployment.3) Capital goods - billions of dollars in lost revenue. Financial Crisis Phase II Is Ahead at Forbes Bert Dohmen  In late 2007, I wrote the book Prelude To Meltdown, predicting the global crisis that occurred the following year.  I now see a similar confluence of events that warns of phase II of the global crisis My work shows that the new recession has started.”… Over the past 33 years, we have called the start of every recession, often on the exact month, or within one month, of the official start as determined one year later by the official arbiter of recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) However, inflation is far understated for political reasons. Currently, the GDP deflator is 1.8%, which hardly reflects the true rise in prices. Therefore, what is counted as growth, is actually price increases. Actual inflation, according to free market economists who calculate inflation as it was done in 1980 before the politician re-engineered it, is now more than 11%. Using that to adjust GDP for inflation, would show that the economy is now in a very sharp contraction…’FLASHBACK HERE: Selling In May Is Very Good Advice This Year  Harding   Remember: Sell in May and Go Away and If Youve Not Sold by June, Youre a Loon! Albert Edwards: Thinks the Market Could Fall 70% [ Hes not alone!   PRECHTER: We're Still In A Massive Bear Market And Stocks Will Crash To New Lows     Stock Market: 4 Current Warning Signs  Navin ‘…1) The 5-year high in the level of insider corporate stock sales is telling. At 565 sells for every 1 buy, its never been higher. Yes, its normal for insiders to be selling some of their stocks so they can buy new yachts and some of this is pre-planned. But that ratio which has spiked recently is extraordinarily high, one might even say off-the-chart  previous‘…1) Job cuts. 2 ) ISM service-sector report. Mondays ISM manufacturing report contributed to market losses on Monday, but todays report, though equally negative, didnt quite have the same effect as markets began to level out this afternoon. The ISM service-sector index declined to 52.7% in July. The U.S. service sector accounts for three-fourths of all economic activity, and employs four out of every five U.S. workers , so a 0.5% decline speaks volumes about the state of economic recovery…’  Factory orders for June fell by 0.8% (just because they say the bad news isnt as bad as expected does not make such bad news rally material. Indeed, the huge ralleys based on now revised downward data never seem to retrace that fake data induced stock surge based thereon.    Service sector growth slowest since 2010    Moody's sets negative outlook on BNY, JPMorgan         S&P ends string of losses on tech rebound  Tech rebound? Is this some kind of a joke? Tech up today? Absolute confirmation of dire prospects worldwide since american tech is horrendous. Yet, sizzling childs play is the order of the day and credit still must be given to those [ie., Steve Jobs-Im truly glad he saved Apple, my first computer (apple IIc for word processing / data based records / forms / templates / data which I interfaced with an electric typewriter for letter quality)] who could (as he) identify such novelties as the biggest over-priced / over-valued sensations since the hoola hoop (hoopla hoops - which were pretty cheap and with some minor health benefits to boot).Take this run-up as a gift based on fraudulent wall street b***s*** alone and take this opportunity to sell / take profits / sell today if you missed in may and then go away! Nothing has been solved; maybe forestalled.  Rout spells trouble for Wall Street  / Moody's confirms U.S. rating at Aaa, outlook negative / Chinese rating agency cuts U.S. debt again / Minyanville's T3 Daily Recap: Signed Debt Deal No Cure for Sickly Market  / US auto industry uneasy after weak July sales / Fitch Unimpressed By Debt Deal, GDP; Markets Unimpressed By Fitch / US debt deal alone won't sustain AAA rating / Stocks now down for year as economic concerns grow AP    The Daily Market Report Aug 1st, 2011  PG  Relief? What Relief? http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum Late last night when party leaders and the President announced that they had reached a bipartisan deal that would allow the debt ceiling to be raised, gold dropped about 1%. Global stocks rallied in relief and briefly, ever so briefly, gold was out of favorCBO scores the package as accomplishing $2.1 trillion in spending cuts over the next 10-years, the CBO baseline also has the deficit rising $6.7 trillion over the same period. The premise apparently being that were working our way to actual cutting by cutting to slow the pace of the nations proliferate spending. In actuality and as evidenced below that CBO baseline may prove to be way too optimistic. What really lit an intraday fire under gold today was the big miss on US July ISM, which plunged to 50.9. The market was expecting a modest downtick to 55.0 from 55.3 in June The Truth About The Debt Deal: Its Pretty Much Meaningless Business Insider/ Come on! Who believes their pre-election year data, reports, b***s***? Theres desperation in the air and like never before! One commentator, Peter Shiff, to Frank Motek of 1070am Bus.Report references the sham in Washington; and regardless, points to default by way of inflation, further stating that the debt ceilings already been breached by borrowing. Moreover, he additionally states that default is inevitable by way of inflation; that the fed will be buying the evermore worthless american paper (bonds) and creating/printing evermore worthless american dollars; that theres been a quid pro quo with at least one of the 3 (S&P, Moodys, Fitch) federal licensed rating agencies, viz., of reaffirming the u.s. AAA rating in return for no prosecution surrounding their role in the S&P AAA rated worthless (fraudulent, mortgage-backed, derivative) paper securities (fraud) giving rise to the previous leg of this continuing, ongoing debacle / crisis. He finally goes on to recommend non-u.s., non-dollar denominated assets, precious metals, and alternate currencies. Initial unemployment claims rise to 418000 - Jul. 21, 2011 which bad news sparked wall street rally what total b***s***. No budget deal, celebrated Greek Plan DEFAULT! sounds like a plan!, backward looking earnings results riiiiight! Watch Out: 2011 Looks A Lot Like The Market Top In 2007 at Forbes  Sean Hanlon  / Deficits And Stimulus Only Delay The Inevitable Collapse Bob Chapman | America is insolvent and has been so for a long time. US Is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece: Gross When adding in all of the money owed to cover future liabilities in entitlement programs the US is actually in worse financial shape than Greece and other debt-laden European countries, Pimcos Bill Gross told CNBC Monday.  Maierhofer: USA INCOME STATEMENT:Total federal spending in 2010 amounted to $3.456 trillion. Total receipts added up to $2.162 trillion. USA Inc.'s 2010 deficit was $1.294 trillion.The 2011 federal budget is $3.7 trillion with a projected deficit of$1.6 trillion. USA BALANCE SHEET: Consensus estimates for unfunded obligations vary. Mary Meeker pegs the shortfall at $31 trillion, PIMCO's Bill Gross estimates the unreported debt to be $75 trillion, while other estimates exceed $100 trillion (these amounts are insurmountable) …’ Huge suckers rally to keep the suckers suckered in this market based upon backward looking data discounted multiple times to the upside (including the apple numbers as recently as last week on leaked expectations of better than expected, etc.), taxpayer funded QE results, and b***s*** alone. This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits since theres much, much worse to come!   IT'S GOING TO HURT 'FOR LONG TIME TO COME' [ Says tiny tim geithner thanks for the heads up tiny tim  God bless us everyone!  As if we didnt already know it / feel it! Dave's Daily  'If you can keep interest rates this low this long, its inevitable cheap financing can allow companies to start cobbling each other up. Further Ben's policies allow companies like IBM to sell bonds at 1% and buy back shares with the proceeds (total paper bubble-scam). POMO is occurring almost daily and Primary Dealers can buy back their shares and pay dividends with what essentially is taxpayer money-- Why The Dow Will Plunge To 7,000 By 24/7 Wall St.    S&P Poised For Dropoff, Says Initial Jobless Claims  Forbes / Maureen Farrell  ]




A Decade of Decline in Equity Markets Faisal Humayun [ This is a must read and explains how the market’s been artificially propped, the dow relative to hard assets, ie., gold (dow/gold ratio), has actually crashed 78%, and comparable prospects for the next decade, etc.. ‘…The Dow Jones Index was trading at 11,357 levels at the beginning of the year 2000. More than a decade later (as of beginning July 2011), the index is at 12582. Therefore, the index has gained 11% in the last ten years…’ Yet, the inflationary dollar (declining) debasement rate was 31%. (-31%) {See the inflation calculator infra – and that’s just the government (inflation) numbers … reality is much worse!} Meanwhile, the frauds on wall street are churnin’ and earnin’ like never before at lightning computerized speeds enabling the high-frequency trades that are commissioned in unprecedented large volumes; a big net negative in real economic terms.]  While Washington Fiddled The Economy Burned at Forbes [ Oh come on! Let’s get real here! The economy was already burning (see infra), Washington notwithstanding! Indeed, the frauds on wall street with those contraindicated paper stock computer programmed commissioned churn-and-earn rallies would love for you to think it’s Washington only {that aw shucks, coulda’ been clear sailin’ otherwise moment; but the reality is that things are far more dire financially and economically than their window-dressed scams would indicate, though washington’s no help, incompetent, unknowledgeable, and ineffectual as they are (although fraudulent wall street, aside from their consummate scammin’, is little better and probably overly relied upon and light in those very areas one would expect to find profiency; viz., finance and economics.) Most importantly, realize that if wobama’s actions had not belied his words/campaign promises, the nation’s position, though still ominous, would have been substantially improved.}  ] Check out this inflation calculator:   http://www.albertpeia.com/inflationcalculator.htm

 

 

Here’s a picture of obama voters / backers: http://www.albertpeia.com/wobamavoters.gif

 

 

Beneath the Market’s Swings, Some Real Cause for Worry  News  Jeff Cox August 11 (CNBC) — ‘So whether this equals, falls short of, or exceeds the financial crisis of 2008 hardly seems to matter—investors are afraid, very afraid, and the question as much as anything in the minds of many market pros will be what soothes that fear. Analyst Dick Bove at Rochdale Securities says he knows why: More restrictive capital requirements and near-zero interest rates set at the Federal Reserve [cnbc explains] that make lending neither easy nor lucrative, a trend that will make it difficult for the economy to grow. “If one thinks through these limitations it can be seen that banks must shrink their balance sheets and change their business patterns to maintain their profits. What they are unlikely to do is to expand their lending activities in order to grow the economy,” Bove wrote in a lengthy banking analysis Thursday.“However, the Federal Reserve is suggesting that the economy is unlikely to grow,” he wrote. “If the Fed is prescient, then banks are facing higher loan losses, lower loan volume, and reduced margins on a wide array of banking products. The outlook is not appealing.”“Even though the United States is able to both print and borrow money, it is as bankrupt as the Europeans,” Bove wrote. “Covering deficits and paying debt with borrowed funds, some of which is newly printed, does not constitute meeting debt service requirements.”…’

 

 


The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed
! Previous, full moon and fraudulent wall street, get this, rallies on not as bad as expected EU stress tests and better than expected google results but forget the dire consumer (recession level) consumer sentiment number ‘cause after all, consumer spending just a paltry 70% of GDP.  Think about this: short-lived Pavlov dog rally (the conditioned stimulus) on hopes for more welfare for wall street and some good results in communist China. This despite the previous failure of QE for everyone but the frauds on wall street and ultimately, though circumlocuted, at great taxpayer expense. Titans of capitalism? How ‘bout the biggest unprosecuted frauds in the world. Preposterous!  Roche 'The worst part of it  ...Obama, who vowed change, has done almost nothing to fix any of it and in fact continues most of the policies that helped get us here in the first place’  ‘INSIDE JOB’ Ferguson wins Oscar for Documentary on the unprosecuted massive extant fraud in the (many) TRILLIONS by the frauds on wall street ( and declares with oscar in hand that not one high level wall street exec has been prosecuted … despite ‘earning’ billions from the fraud )   I want just one person with courage enough to stand up and explain to all that these huge commissionable computerized trading volumes like never before are a net negative in a very big way … that’s a fact … that’s economic reality in real terms!   Trade deficit up, growth predictions by fed scaled down [ do you recall how many upside market points for the false, more positive growth projections by the ‘no-recession’ fed, then there’s also the costly, hyperinflationary failed QE hopes, more fed jawboning rallies the frauds on wall street off their lows to keep suckers suckered – they all belong in jail!   Housing Woes to Cause Recession in 2012, Says Gary Shilling - Peter Gorenstein  STOCKS BARELY FALL AFTER MOUNTAIN OF BAD NEWS: Here's What You Need To Know Business Insider Weisenthal Economic scenario far worse than expected (and in this pre-election year the reality is still far worse than reported), yet stocks still rallied off lows to keep suckers sucked in to this fraudulent market    Click here to see the new scariest jobs chart ever  http://www.businessinsider.com/details-from-the-awful-june-june-jobs-report-2011-7    >  See all 12 charts from St Louis Fed:  http://static8.businessinsider.com/image/4e1712edcadcbba25f030000-595-356/chart.jpg    Previous:Stocks rally on jersey-based, former Lautenberg ADP still paltry, better than expected 157,000 private jobs number and one’s got to wonder ‘who got paid’, one way or another, for the fudge. Then there’s the horrific ‘american tech’. Retail? The defacto bankrupt government’s probably buying with money they don’t have, at best; and, as with other data in these desperate pre-election-year times, plain false, falsified, fudged, spun. Previous day, all bad news … from eurozone (protugal, et als), to asia zone (china worse than expected), to america (where to begin, from defacto bankruptcy, to debased currency, to insurmountable debt / dervice, to pervasive corruption, etc.) … stocks rally on fraud and b***s*** alone. Previous, higher oil price rally, along with Netflix ‘technology rally’ … Don’t make me laugh! … Total desperation on wall street and in Washington … How pathetic! … Jobless claims at 428,000 much worse than expected; and, don’t forget, these are desperate ‘pre-election times’ when regardless of factual reality (ie., fake reports, data, as, ie., ‘wobama hometown’ corrupt chicago ISM is up as even their youth gangs are showing increased criminal activity which probably accounts for the rise; ie., meth, crack labs, etc.?) data / reports are fudged / faked / spun. Foreclosure, distressed sales up, at least on paper with contracts signed, so no surprise nor reason to cheer here, as markets worldwide jump on the american crazy train for a short-lived bounce as all problems remain. This is the same month end (and quarter, half) spurt / window dressing based on b***s*** alone to keep the suckers suckered and an especially great time to sell / take profits since there’s much worse to come! Talk about milking the greek crisis for the umpteenth time a so-called solution (and there are loads of greecy scenarios worldwide …  I don’t think so and neither does Schaeffer who says: ‘…even once such a package is passed it only buys time. Actually fixing the fiscal condition of Greece is not something that can be solved in a matter of weeks, or even months…‘ but it’s great press for the churn and earn and to keep the suckers suckered.  Technology rally? Defacto bankrupt american technology is horrendous but great sizzle for the new fraud as in the dotcom bust days. Then there’s the greasy b.s. new greecy b.s. factor. The rally into the close and the previous so-called (4 day) ‘rally’ was based on b***s*** alone to keep the suckers suckered and for ‘smarter money ‘ along with the frauds to sell into. This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come!    Selling In May Is Very Good Advice This Year  Harding   Remember: Sell in May and Go Away and If You’ve Not Sold by June, You’re a Loon! ‘ ‘Albert Edwards: Thinks the Market Could Fall 70%’ [ He’s not alone!   PRECHTER: We're Still In A Massive Bear Market And Stocks Will Crash To New Lows     Stock Market: 4 Current Warning Signs  Navin ‘…1) The 5-year high in the level of insider corporate stock sales is telling. At 565 sells for every 1 buy, it’s never been higher. Yes, it’s normal for insiders to be selling some of their stocks so they can buy new yachts and some of this is pre-planned. But that ratio — which has spiked recently — is extraordinarily high, one might even say off-the-chart.       Wall Street 'Vastly Underestimating' Risk of Debt Default  Forbes / Robert Lenzner   StreetTalk ‘ “Meet the Press” climaxed Sunday  with a startling market prognostication from David Brooks, conservative columnist for the NY Times. The risk of a debt default over the combustible issue of the Medicare deficit hangs over the course of the stock market. Buyers Beware!“I was up in Wall Street  this week,” Brooks said. “They’re vastly underestimating the source of piolitical risk here. We could have a major problem, I think, either this summer or the next couple years. And I’d be worried about investing too much in the market. That’s my financial advice.”…’   Another Financial Crisis Is On The Way, Mobius Says      Market Crash 6/30/11?Technical indicators suggest market collapse may begin by June 30th Dennis Slothower is one of the world’s leading technical analysts. He’s one of the few advisors whose readers completely avoided ALL losses during the disaster that was 2008. And now he’s issuing another dire warning. His technical indicators suggest that the market manipulation we’ve seen over the last several months is about to come to an end…and that means thousands of investors are about to get clobbered. This correction could begin as soon as June 30th– so it’s important that you take action now to prepare yourself. StealthStocksOnline.com        STOCKS HAVE BIG RALLY AFTER PILES OF UGLY NEWS: Here's What You need To Know    Harry Dent: “Major Crash” Coming for Stocks, Commodities Already Topping Out           24 Signs Of Economic Decline In America ‘The US is in the middle of a devastating long-term economic decline..’ ]  States face shortfall for retirees (WP)   Public workers’ retirement funds had a gap of $1.26 trillion at the end of fiscal 2009    Study: Affordable rentals scarce  (WP)      Poll: For Obama, low marks on Afghan war (WP)  Fuel prices cut into Obama popularity  (WP) They’ve used the contrived mideast turmoil and their wars to obfuscate and divert attention from their failure.    Davis ‘This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘  Dave's Daily  'If you can keep interest rates this low this long, its inevitable cheap financing can allow companies to start cobbling each other up. Further Ben's policies allow companies like IBM to sell bonds at 1% and buy back shares with the proceeds (total paper bubble-scam). POMO is occurring almost daily and Primary Dealers can buy back their shares and pay dividends with what essentially is taxpayer money-- Why The Dow Will Plunge To 7,000 By 24/7 Wall St.   S&P Poised For Dropoff, Says Initial Jobless Claims  Forbes / Maureen Farrell   

 

 

 

Take A Lesson From 2007 And Sell Stocks Now at Forbes, Sean Hanlon August has given new meaning to the dog days of summer as the broad equity market has retracted all year-to-date gains and dropped into negative territory, all within the first couple weeks.

As written in my previous Market Commentary on July 20, our research uncovered potentially dangerous activity in the equity markets that could lead to a break and high volatility.  We presented this in that Market Commentary by the chart in Figure 1 below.  Using our proprietary research methodologies, we elected to make a major tactical move on June 17.

That move reduced all equity and high-yield bond exposure, creating 50% cash or cash equivalent allocations across all portfolios. This defensive move was shown to be prudent as volatility erupted and considerable downside was experienced in equity markets in the first week of August, as shown in Figure 2.

Figure 1 (click image to enlarge.)

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/advisor/files/2011/08/11.jpg

With this heightened volatility, we were observant that this market behavior was eerily similar to market conditions in 2007. To elaborate on this point, lets compare the S&P 500 Index for 2007 vs. the first seven months of 2011.  As you can see below in Figure 2, 2007 experienced high volatility yet remained range-bound in an upward trend (represented by the overlaid black bands).

Figure 2 (click image to enlarge.)

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/advisor/files/2011/08/2.jpg

 

The first half of 2011 maintained a range-bound upward trend until finally breaking sharply to the downside in the first week of August.

Of course now everyone wants to know what happens next?  Our research has no special predictive power of what may happen now that the trend has been broken. Instead, what our research is telling us is to remain extremely cautious at this time.  We have since moved client portfolios to almost 100% money markets and/or cash equivalents in all accounts.  We do maintain some high quality bond positions.

You may think But I cant make any money in money markets, they pay nothing these days!  True enough, but there are many times in ones investing lifetime where the best investment is to simply maintain principal.  That principal amount will be able to potentially purchase more in the not too distant future.

A simple example is stocks.  On April 29 of this year, $1,340 purchased the equivalent of one S&P 500 Index share.  Today, to own those same companies that make up the S&P 500 Index, the cost is below $1,200, yet the same amount of dividends is being received.  In this period preserving principal has resulted in increased investment purchasing power, income and potentially increased return.

 

Related article: Watch Out: 2011 Looks A Lot Like The Market Top In 2007

 

 

 

[video] Trader: We Could Test 1120 Lows at TheStreet.com

 

 

There's A Recession Coming According To The Data at Forbes  The stock market peaked in April, and is behaving in the saame fashion it did in late 2007, when big troubles from real estate writedowns were spreading through the financial sector.

The most worrisome statistic this week was the Empire State Manufacturing indedx wehich was down from a minus 3.76 to a minus 7.7 a leading indicator of recession in the past. The new industrial orders index from New York remained well below zero at minus 7.8.

The Federal Reserve Board has promised to keep interest rates at zero until 2013 an admission that the economy is not expected to rebound for two years until the next President is in the White House. This policy step indicates the Fed does not believe the economy will recover either this year or next year. Never before has the centreal bank made such a policy declaration for as long a period as two years.

There were 1300 new lows in the market on August 8th another phenomenon that hasd not taken place since the great stagnation was triggered in 2008. Even though the market indexes made up all their lost ground, it appewars that investors are willing to delude themselves that  corporate profits will reemain at very high levels despite the period of austerity we are clearly entering.

The austerity required in Europe to deal with the sovereign debt crisis is likely to push Europe into a recession. This will impact US corporations dependent on important profits from Europe.

The corporate return on revenues has risen the past two years to a peak of 14% an unusually high level of profits that is not expected to continue.

Consumer savings are rising as household debt gets paid back. But, we are a long way from safety levels of savings in a high unemployment period. And the higherb the saavings rise so the lower the level of consumption will be.

Housing numbers were down 1.5% last month underscoring that the turnaround in housing is not close at hand.

 

 

Market's Swoon Should Be Your Wake Up Call

 

 

Watch Out: 2011 Looks A Lot Like The Market Top In 2007 Sean Hanlon:   Back on December 12, 2007 I wrote a market commentary that started as follows:

The equity markets have been very volatile this year, but also range bound.  A picture speaks a thousand words so all one needs to do is view the chart below of the S&P 500 Index to understand just how volatile and range bound things have been.  Specifically, since February 20, 2007, only nine and one half months or so ago, the S&P 500 Index has been down 5.86%, up 13.02%, down 9.43%, up 11.26%, down 10.09%, and now up 7.73% through 12/10/07 so far in this latest up leg!  All this in ONLY nine and one half months!

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/advisor/files/2011/07/market-commentary-1.jpg

History is repeating itself so far in 2011, which has been fraught with ups and downs in both international and domestic equity markets.  This is due to many things, including the considerable economic doubts and various countries debt situations. This uncertainty has translated into market performance with direct impacts on portfolio returns and more prominently in portfolio volatility. This volatility is best seen in the chart below of the S&P 500 Index beginning 1/1/11.

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/advisor/files/2011/07/market-commentary-2.jpg

2010 ended positivity and the momentum carried into the first two months of 2011 however the end of February began a series of events that led market returns on a whipsaw ride of ups and downs, resulting in the current universal mid-year views of market uncertainty.

What news was associated with this volatility? All the usual; crude oil prices, natural disasters, corporate earnings, politics, economic forecast revisions for both developed and emerging markets, the European debt situation, the United States debt situation and more to name just a few.

One thing is for certain; the current volatile, range bound market activity is difficult at best to profit from.  In this investing environment patience is the most important attribute.  I will be patient and will be careful until the trends are preferable.

Our strategy at Hanlon Investment Management is to attempt to minimize downside risk by exiting risk asset classes, such as equities, during periods of uncertainty, getting invested in more conservative asset classes, such as money markets and short-term bonds, and re-entering into risky asset classes when we identify them as attractive, when the trend is our friend and positive!

Having identified this volatility, in June we made defensive, tactical investment decisions that provide less exposure to these volatile, range bound markets and prepare us to re-enter the markets when they possess improved risk characteristics.

 

 

 

SEC may have destroyed documents, senator says 17 Aug 2011 The Securities and Exchange Commission may have destroyed documents and compromised enforcement case ...   Grassley: Agency may have got rid of Goldman, Madoff documents   Ronald D. Orol, MarketWatch WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) The Securities and Exchange Commission may have destroyed documents and compromised enforcement cases involving activity at large banks and hedge funds during the height of the financial crisis in 2008, according to allegations made by a lawmaker on Wednesday. From what Ive seen, it looks as if the SEC might have sanctioned some level of case-related document destruction, said Sen. Chuck Grassley, Republican of Iowa, in a letter to the agencys chairman, Mary Schapiro. Sen. Chuck Grassley  It doesnt make sense that an agency responsible for investigations would want to get rid of potential evidence. If these charges are true, the agency needs to explain why it destroyed documents, how many documents it destroyed over what timeframe, and to what extent its actions were consistent with the law. Agency staff destroyed over 9,000 files related to preliminary agency investigations, according to a letter sent in July to Grassley, the top Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee, and obtained by MarketWatch. The allegations were made by SEC enforcement attorney, Darcy Flynn, in a letter to Grassley. Flynn is a current employee, and according to the letter, received a bonus for his past years work. Flynn alleges the SEC destroyed files related to matters being examined in important cases such as Bernard Madoff and a $50 billion Ponzi scheme he operated as well as an investigation involving Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS +0.33%   trading in American International Group credit-default swaps in 2009. Flynn also alleged that the agency destroyed documents and information collected for preliminary investigations at Wells Fargo & Co. WFC +1.34% , Bank of America Corp. BAC +0.81% , Citigroup C +0.13%  , Credit Suisse CS +0.38%  , Deutsche Bank DB +0.79%  Morgan Stanley MS -0.06%  and the now-bankrupt Lehman Brothers. The letter goes into particular detail about Deutsche Bank, the former employer of current SEC enforcement chief Robert Khuzami as well as former enforcement chiefs Gary Lynch and Richard Walker…’

Sen. Chuck Grassley  It doesnt make sense that an agency responsible for investigations would want to get rid of potential evidence…’ [ Oh but it does make sense Sen. Grassley:   Report: SEC lawyer exposed FBI informant (WP) [ Clearly, the sec liar (sic lawyer) is one of those typically with a pre or post arrangement, whether implicit or explicit; you know, that ubiquitous bribe thing in pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt, fallen  america. Indeed, the scenario typifies that national drain / sinkhole new york (new york / new jersey metro) where, for example, FBI informants were routinely exposed by italians in the new york d.a.s office over the objection of the FBI, and were promptly dispatched/assassinated / hit by mafia / organized crime [ this was documented with authority in the book Goombata: The Improbable Rise and Fall of John Gotti and His Gang Cummings / Volkman  ]

 

 

TRAIN READING: COVER-UP  Mark Gongloff

Is the SEC covering up Wall Street crimes?
Matt Taibbi

The forex market is causing some companies to pull up stakes Heard on the Street

Resisting the urge to buy the dips Josh Brown

Maybe its not stocks that are cheap, but earnings estimates that are high Ritholtz

What happens after a Greek default? Fortune

Bank of Americas layoffs pointless, wouldnt even pay the lawyers Huffington Post

Time to break up Bank of America The Atlantic

Why is the UK still rated AAA? FT Alphaville

New human ancestor discovered WSJ

The cost of a crowded volatility trade FT Alphaville

Workers malaise foreshadows wider social issues Mohamed El-Erian at Reuters

No, were not waiting for your official recession call, economist Josh Brown in Forbes

Your guide to living in 10 fictional worlds Wired

Failing US economy no reason to stop investing in print media, all experts agree The Onion

Enough with the monetary easing already Pragmatic Capitalism

The US economy is becoming more susceptible to hurricanes Real Time Economics

How Irene lived up to the hype  Five Thirty Eight

The War on Terror is dead The Atlantic

Emerging markets now have more heft and reach than developed ones Economist (video)

Why is the White House defending banks from investigations? Megan McArdle

Hurricane Irene may cause a gas-price spike
CNN/Money

Know the difference between short-term and long-term problems for the economy Ritholtz

Why arent governments more afraid of a double-dip recession? The Atlantic

France deserves a downgrade at least as much as the US does Bethany McLean in Slate

Recent market volatility has historical precedent Mark Hulbert

Stop worrying about China not buying Treasurys, already FT Alphaville

Fed hawks at odds over their reasons for dissent Reuters

Why Rick Perry made a bid for the anti-Fed set  Slate

Maslows hierarchy of needs gets an update The Atlantic

How did so many people feel one small quake in Virginia?  The Atlantic

Philly Fed coincident indicators turning red Calculated Risk

Treasurys are priced for disaster Capital Spectator

Profit recession risks tick higher FT Alphaville

The rich can afford to pay more taxes Bruce Bartlett in Economix



 

Everything You Need to Know About the Latest Market Plunge [But were afraid to ask]  Minyanville Staff Aug 18, 2011  ‘After a rather benign start to the week, markets plunged on Thursday with the S&P 500 shedding 4.5% and the Nasdaq-100 falling nearly 5%. The main driver on the day was speculation European banks remain insufficiently capitalized. Gold jumped nearly 25 to a record high and Treasuries rallied. Among stock movers, Apple (AAPL) outperformed the indices but still dropped 3.7%, Microsoft (MSFT) also outperformed closing down just 2.2%, Bank of America (BAC) dropped 6% and Oracle (ORCL) fell 8.3%.
Below are this week's top Minyanville stories examining the state of the US and global markets.

Is It 2008 Again? Looking at the Summer Crash of 2011
A real bear market has begun, and bonds got it right as early as February that the biggest threat to the global economic system is deflation.
by Michael A. Gayed 

Dynamics of This Market Panic Ripple Though History
The 10-year anniversary of the 1929 high ties to the beginning of World War II on September 1st, 1939 when Hitler invaded Poland and France declared war on Germany.
by Jeffrey Cooper 

Are Gold and S&P 500 Behaving Logically or Irrationally?
Unfortunately Mr. Market rarely embarks upon the logical until he has convinced enough market participants to behave irrationally.
by J. W. Jones 


Random Thoughts: Fed Dissention and Financial Market Fatigue
The world's wildest reality show continues.
by Todd Harrison

Handicapping the Global Economic Recovery
The obvious question must be begged: where do we go from here?
by Todd Harrison 

Coming in October: Next Major Price Cycle Low
A major price cycle on the daily S&P 500 chart, which shows reliability in bottoming about every 15.5 months, is due for its next low on or about October 31.
by Michael Paulenoff 

Volume Trends Suggest Worst Is Not Over for Stocks
When the market rallies hard after a nasty decline, one of the first things that can determine whether the rally's a keeper or not is volume. Here's why.
by Tim Thielen

The Sign of the Bear

When the quarterly turns down, the normal expectation is for the market to carve out a low soon, in terms of time and price -- not to waterfall.
by Jeffrey Cooper

Economy Showing Signs of Life, but Not for Long

We're on the brink of a nice little bump from the data coming in, but on the whole, a 1930s-style depression seems to be on track.
by MoneyShow.com

Wall of Worry Keeps Rising on Europe's Credit Crisis Fears

To make matters worse, politicians in the world's crisis-free countries are on summer vacation.
by Lloyd Khaner

Why Is Everyone Bullish on the US?
Wall Street will always think positively of the market, but the facts are pointing to a bearish phase.
by Gary Kaltbaum

Five Things You Need to Know: Asymmetric Economy Increasingly Untenable and Unstable
This situation cannot continue without adjustment.
by Kevin Depew

Fed's Easing Policy Means Worse Living Through Convexity
As the Fed removes interest rate risk through stealth QE3, it introduces other risks, distorting incentives for investing and weakening the economy in the long term.
by Professor Pinch

Are US Markets Facing the Abyss?

The vast majority of technicals are indicating a new bear leg.
by Jeffrey Cooper ‘

 

 

 

Dow Tumbles on New Worries About Same Old Issues - Aaron Task

Who’s Worse: U.S. Banks or Bernie Madoff? - Stacy Curtin

 



 


WHY NEW LOWS ARE LIKELY   Simon Maierhofer, August 18, 2011  Last Sunday's (August 14) ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter update listed 5 reasons why new lows are likely. Here they are:

HISTORIC REVERSAL

We've been expecting a major market top in the S&P 500 (SNP: ^GSPC), Dow Jones Industrials (DJI: ^DJI) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC). The April 3 ETF Profit Strategy update identified the ideal target range for a major top to be 1,369 - 1,382. The chart below was featured in the same update.

It outlines a top around 1,370 followed by an initial decline to about 1,230 (happened in June), followed by a rally (happened in July), followed by a steep decline.

DEATH CROSS

The death cross is one of the most talked about technical events, that's why I don't put too much stock in it. However, there are two interesting facts about previous death crosses.

The 2000 and 2007 death cross occurred about three days before the S&P embarked on its next leg down. The 2010 death cross was actually a buy signal. However, it occurred after the S&P and DJIA bounced off a multi-year trend line. This time the trend line was broken so a more bearish interpretation of the death cross is appropriate.

                               https://www.etfguide.com/images/PDNewsletter_Images/5%20-%20April%203%20TF.jpg  

SEASONALITY

August, September, and October is the most bearish stretch of the year. September and October sport negative performance even in the pre-election year.

SENTIMENT

From S&P 1,370 on May 2 to S&P 1,258 on June 16, the S&P shed 112 points and sentiment measured by Investors Intelligence (II) and the American Association for Individual Investors (AAII) turned deeply bearish (only 37% II bulls). The June 16 ETF Profit Strategy update took that as a queue to buy (long positions were closed at S&P 1,340).

From S&P 1,353 on July 7 to S&P 1,102 on August 9 the S&P lost 251 points, yet the II sentiment poll registered the second most bullish reading since the first week of May (47.3% II bulls). AAII and II polls are often considered the 'dumb money.' If the 'dumb money' views last Wednesday's low as a buying opportunity, the 'smart money' should be suspicious.

VIX PATTERN

If you have the charting capabilities, take a moment and plot the VIX (Chicago Options: ^VIX) against the S&P for the months of September - November 2008 and April - July 2010. If you don't have the time you may simply look at the chart below.

                                https://www.etfguide.com/images/PDNewsletter_Images/yahoo%20-%20vix%20pattern.gif  

What we've seen in 2008 and 2010 is that a VIX peak did not coincide with the S&P bottom. The S&P bottom actually occurred against a lower VIX reading. If this pattern continues, we will see lower lows.

The August 14 ETF Profit Strategy update includes a detailed analysis of the VIX pattern.

THE SCRIPT

Via more or less accidental chart surfing I found a striking resemblance between the 2007 market top and the May 2011 top.  This moved me to state in the July 17 Profit Strategy update that:

'There is a similar trend line and a triple top above the trend line. A break below that trend line could be a precursor of bad things. Next week the trend line will be at about 1,262.' The S&P sliced through that trend line on August 4 and fell an additional 12% within the next four days.

The August 7 Profit Strategy update revisited that script and concluded this: 'We now have a rough script; let's see how much lip the actors will add during the live performance (I.e. S&P downgrade). 

The two main things I have taken away from the 2007 script are:

1) There will be a new low.

2) There will be a powerful counter trend rally to around 1,xxx (reserved for subscribers).'

THE VERDICT

We got the new low and we got a rather powerful rally. Now the question is, how long will the low last and how high will stocks rally?

The script suggests there will be another low. The VIX pattern suggests there should be another price low. Seasonality suggests that there's some headwind on the way up. Sentiment readings suggest we should be suspicious of any rally. The death cross also suggests lower prices.

SUMMARY

There were a number of good reasons to expect new lows on Sunday. Yesterday's ETF Profit Strategy update recommended to go short as soon as the S&P breaks below 1,373. This happened within the first few minutes of trading today. Now it's time to let the script play out…’

S&P Triggers 200-day MA Death Cross - What Does this Mean? ETFguide.com

Is This a New Bear Market? The Chart That Tells The Whole Story ETFguide.com

Why The Worst May Be Yet To Come ETFguide.com

 

 

 

Abandon Ship?[The USS Titanic] Yes, Because of These 5 Bearish Icebergs | iPhone 2 (robot)... By Michael McGill: August 18, 2011 is a day that has handed out some of the worst economic news since a few days in the 2008 financial crisis, and it has the Dow Jones Industrial Average down big time. The reasons keep piling up to turn bearish and pile into safer investments. Here are 5 reasons showing that investors need to be on the watch out for choppy waters tsunami type waves ahead: Homes Sales Drop 3.5% in July This marks the weakest sales (4.67 million) figure in 14 years, even beating last years disappointing mark of 4.91 million. This is despite the average rate of a 30-year fixed mortgage coming in at its lowest level on record (4.15) this week. This is data to fight the ever increasing hope that home owners have of increasing the value of their homes. Jobless Claims Rise 9,000 Last week investors were looking for Complete Story »

·        Homes Sales Drop 3.5% in July

·        Jobless Claims Rise 9,000

·        Treasuries Hitting Record Highs (record low yields)

·        Inflation at the Consumer Level Rose to 0.5% in July

·        World GDP Growth Slowdown - …’

 

 

 

Dow/Gold Ratio Lowest Since 1987 Crash   Forbes   Adrian Ash Todays gold buyers might still get to look early birds as this depression wears on GROWTH or defensestocks or gold? Intra-day noise aside in summer 2011, Mr.Markets choice looks plain.

The Dow/Gold Ratio a measure of the U.S. stock markets valuation in ounces of gold has sunk as equities have plunged but gold prices have jumped so far this summer.

Dropping through 6.0 ahead of Fridays New York opening, the Dow/Gold Ratio hasnt been this low since early 1989, back when world equity markets were recovering from the Great Crash of Black Monday 1987.

http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/files/DowGoldviii11.png

That slump itself had taken the Dow/Gold Ratio all the way down to 3.6, with gold prices rising to nearly $500 per ounce as the Wall Street index sank to 1776 points. Growth, of course, was only taking a pause in late 1987 a quick breather before the real race to perfection of the late 1990s. Today, in contrast, the Dow/Gold Ratio could still go a lot further down. Or so says history.

Trading a little over its century-long average of 10.0 today, the ratio bottomed during the 1930s Great Depression at just below 2.0 ounces of gold for one Dow unit. At the nadir of the next global depression the inflationary depression of the early 1980s the Dow/Gold Ratio sank even lower, down to 1.0.

Whatever flavor of depression weve got at the start of this decade and it is a depression, as Western jobs data continue to show and as the Dow/Gold yardstick will confirm if it goes much lower (keep an eye on the underperformance of gold mining equities, too) a growing flow of private savings is choosing defense in gold bullion rather than choosing business-risk in listed stocks.

That choice might sound self-fulfilling if you work in psychiatry or government, a kind of clinical disorder open to curing with medication, zero interest rates or perhaps a third round of quantitative easing most likely aimed at risk assets, we guess, rather than the risk free Treasury bonds targeted by QE1 and QE2 and which institutional investors are all-too keen to hold anyway.

So far, however, investors choosing to buy gold only account for a tiny portion of the money fleeing equities.

From here to a true depression low in Dow/Gold (if such a level is reached), todays gold buyers will need to find many more friends. Theyd also look early-birds compared with the rush out of stocks and into gold needed to reach that 2.0 or 1.0 mark.

 

The Great Stocks Vs. Gold Round Trip  Aug 19th, 2011 News (BusinessInsider) — ‘ When priced in gold stocks have now returned to where they were at the market’s low-point, back in 2009. Actually, we’re even worse now.  http://www.usagold.com/pete/newsviews/20110819GoldSPratio.jpg   PG View: In 1965 De Gaulle called for a return to an “indisputable monetary base,” one that “does not bear the mark of any particular country.” He of course was referring to gold. As was pointed out in a Forbes article early in the week on the 40th anniversary of President Nixon closing the gold window, over the last four thousand years, the only period in which humanity has not consistently based its currency in metal, specifically gold, is the last forty.” And look what that has wrought…’


Ignore Buffett's Advice, Don't Buy Stocks at Forbes Bert Dohmen [ Yeah this is really good advice. As a shill for fraudulent wall street, they may have given him some stellar performances and cash to boot; but, the homespun bumpkin senile buffets analytical abilities, if ever really extant, have certainly passed the point of no return. You may recall how the clintons, with a mere $1,000 or so, were revealed as commodities trading wizards, but as written up in the Wall Street Journal someone was giving them money. In fairness, that they were singled out (was) is a bit arbitrary inasmuch as thats going on all the time on wall street, and now with greater precision owing to greater computer programming capabilities, to everyone elses detriment. Remember, in a manner of speaking, there are two sides to every trade, viz., winner and loser (in relative terms).] The markets plunged going into August 8. On that day, the DJI closed with a loss of 629 points. My indicators signaled that a brief bounce would commence the next day. According to the charts, the first target for the S&P 500 was 1205. The target was hit exactly a few days later. That was followed by a renewed plunge.

I have been looking for a serious crisis to start in September. It appears that we have seen the prelude for that. The big smart money has been preparing for the past five months.You can see the distribution pattern on the charts since mid-February. The rush to the exits is now accelerating and the smart money has been selling short in large amounts.

The extreme bullish sentiment that prevailed until the latest plunge was first replaced by complacency, then by concern. However, the fear stage is still missing, except at hedge funds that were forced to sell because of margin calls. In fact, during the severe plunge in the first week of August, investment investors became even more bullish according to Investorsintelligence.com. That is not good for the markets.

The market negatives are increasing in numbers. The IPO window is now shut. There are signs that credit is once again vanishing. Loans are being called in, some companies appear to have difficulties rolling over their Commercial Paper, junk bonds yields are soaring, European banks may stop lending to each other, and the European crisis is spreading out across the globe. Its my view that this will cause another credit crisis, just as in 2008.

Whats worse is that contrary to 2008, the big players learned to read the signs from their 2008 mistakes. They are now wide awake, although in the media, their minions still repeat the same bullish fairy tale. This means that this crisis could develop much faster than the last one. (Read my book, Financial Apocalypse, which is the 2008 roadmap, one which can be used very well for what is now happening.)

The words possible recession suddenly is being mentioned a lot in the media, although economists still strongly deny that possibility. Our rule is that the stronger their denials, the more certain and the deeper the recession will be. In fact, I declared in our May 9 issue of the Wellington Letter that the recession had started.

Morgan Stanley lowered its global GDP growth forecasts for 2012 from 4.5% to 3.8%. My forecast is for 1%-2% or less. It would be negative growth except for the fudged inflation numbers.

The European politicians are not any smarter than those in the U.S. Merkel and Sarkozy had a meeting in Paris and did nothing. That day I called the outcome Disastrous for the markets. It took the markets a day to digest the consequences and then the selling avalanche started. Many of the markets in Europe, led by the banks stocks, went into virtual free falls, losing from 4%-7% in one day. Such losses indicate an approaching crisis.

Now we see some of the well-known Wall Street figures appearing in the media, telling investors all the reasons why stocks are a good buy. One appeared with a long list of bullish factors. Well, that list didnt prevent the global stock market from losing an incredible $6 trillion over the past several weeks. He did the same cheerleading on national TV in 2007 before investors lost 50% of their wealth.

Warren Buffett is also once again the cheerleader saying he is buying stocks. He did that in 2007-2008 as well, and then the meltdown started later in 2008.

I would not fall for this self-serving advice. Words cannot rescind a recession that we already have, it cannot stop the insolvency of entire countries in Europe, it cant change the fact that major profit downgrades will appear soon, and it cant stop the China crisis that is now starting.

Gold is soaring, but the mining stocks look terribly weak. There is great danger now with the gold stocks getting hit hard by less developed countries, including South Africa, to nationalize gold mines. This is too lucrative for them to resist.

I would get out of all money market funds unless they are U.S. government only.  The MMFs have big exposure to European banks. We believe that lending between banks in Europe may seize, which means that the whole structure will start shaking. You will start hearing the word contagion.

In my opinion, the danger period is approaching. What we have seen until now is just a preview. The main feature is likely to be worse.

Bert Dohmen is editor of Bert Dohmens Wellington Letter and author of Prelude To Meltdown (2007) and Financial Apocalypse (2011).




The "Crimes" That Wrecked The Markets  Forbes / Robert Lenzner CNNs anchor in London, Richard Quest, raised the issue squarely today about trying to explain the crimes that have created this failure to recover from the 2008 recession and the fear of another  downturn in the economy that could wipe out many of the gains we have achieved. Quest, of course, did not mean felonies or violations of the law that would land people in prison. I think he meant crimes of bad policy, crimes of financial illiteracy, crimes of stupidity, crimes of poor leadership.

So, heres my attempt to sum up my answer to Quest.

The powers-that-be saved  the Masters of the Universe on Wall Street by using trillions of loans, investments and guarantees that sent the signal that Finance was the nations Number One Priority.  This historic gift to finance meant that the growing disparity between the super-rich and the middle class would continue to widen, without anyone of our top policy gurus suggesting it was splitting our nation. Some academics even worry about the crime of pushing the middle class into poverty.

Nevertheless, there was no bold strategy left to help those out of work. It was a crime that the stimulus program did nothing to create any jobs in the private sector. Obamas economic adviser in 2009 , Larry Summers, was dead set against a make-work program to put the nations skilled construction workers busy on repairing  the rusting infrastructure he finds distasteful at airports and railroad stations. Now, we are going to be given the sop of an infrastructure bank that couldnt possibly be in place for years, if ever.

No question the handling  of the debt limit debacle was  crime of poor planning, no overall shred strategy and trying to effect a master plan for $4  trillion cuts with only days to go before the August 2nd deadline. Keystone Cops,  whatever you wish to call it caused a loss of confidence in the nations politicians; a kind of virtual crime on the public who deserved better. Much better. This entire episode removed the foundations to rational expectations for the stock market and threw the nation into a madhouse of volatility and confusion.

I dont know what to call the lapse in the markets faith in paper money and the more-or-less steady rise in the price of gold from $850 an ounce 3 years ago to well over $1800 today.  There is no other stock, bond or commodity you could have purchased that had this magnificent performance. Well, maybe the shares of Apple, and some global commodity producers.

Moreover, it was a crime to do nothing about the obscene bonuses taken by the Masters of the Universe who only were able to pay themselves in this way because of the federal bailout. No one has tried to  get back the fortunes taken away by Lehmans Richard Fuld,  Countrywide Credits Angelo Mozilloor either of the Merrill Lynch CEOs, who helped destroy their iconic firm. Now theres a crime.

Then, theres the  SECs unwillingness to reinstitute the uptick on short sales of stock so that hedge funds and other speculators could not trigger sharp sell-offs in the stock market If you had this uptick rule back, every short seller would have to wait for a transaction at a higher price to  sell short rather than the libertarian crime that allows them to pound a stock lower to make sure-thing profits. Its a crime short sellers are able to shoot ducks in a barrel. Shocking lack of fairness. No wonder Aunt Sadie is fleeing.

No doubt there were crimes committed in the week of volatility, with gyrations that scared the public. These movements up and down were caused by the high frequency trading by computers owned by hedge funds who are not investors but in-and-out traders several times a day and who have no regard for fundamental values.  These Masters Of  The Universe have the ultimate power in American society because of their political contributions and lobbying.

I believe Obamas health plan to be a crime because it was a sellout to the 5 giant health insurance firms that were given 4 years clear and free to raise their premiums without interference. It was a crime because Obama was told by leading Senators it was a terrible sellout of the citizenry.

I dont know what to call the bankruptcy of fiscal and monetary policy.  In some existential sense it is a crime that we have run out of  fiscal and monetary ammunition to turn this  collapsing shock treatment around. It is a crime that 300 million people will be looking for Ben Bernanke, Fed Chairman, to pull a rabbit out of a hat in Jackson, Wyoming next week, when central bankers are meeting.  QE2 came from last years meeting but it created no jobs.

The same will be true after Labor Day when the much-ballyhooed Obama  speech on jobs is coming. I fear expectations are going to be terribly disappointed. Expect  rhetoric as in We have always been a Triple A nation and we always will be Triple A. That was a crime of speaking mush, when 300 million people know better, and wanted to hear something meaningful. Not to have bold, kick-ass leadership at a time of crisis is a sad sort of a crime. 



Accounting Gimmics Resurface as Growth Flounders at TheStreet ‘-- Accounting gimmicks -- once the staple of the boom-boom stock market -- are on the rise as companies attempt to convince analysts and investors that they are profitable despite a sluggish economy, according to industry watchers. Accounting techniques of Groupon and Zynga were under the spotlight recently, with the Securities and Exchange Commission instructing both companies to adhere to more stricter and conventional accounting standards, causing them to amend their IPO offer documents.

The creative metrics in the IPO documents of recent social-media IPOs are reminiscent of the dot-com bubble when stocks were valued on metrics like "eyeballs", while fundamentals like revenues and profits were ignored.

 

Rebekah Smith, director of financial advisory services at accounting and consulting firm GBQ consulting, says accounting tricks and schemes are likely to start unraveling as we head into 2012 and the lag effect catches up. "The typical accounting fraud goes on for about 18 to 26 months before it is uncovered. The frauds that took place in 2009 are not going to surface until later in 2011 or into 2012."

 

Financial statement fraud like the kind that took place at Enron are rare. The Association of Certified Fraud Examiners estimates that such manipulation accounts for only 4.8% of total fraud cases, although it causes the most financial damage, with the median loss being more than $4 million.

 

But accounting gimmicks that focus on non-GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) measures are rampant and they can be misleading.

Groupon, for instance, claimed that the marketing expenses incurred to acquire customers were "one-time investments" and hence they should be excluded from the calculations of operating income.

By that metric the company made an operating profit at $81.6 million in the first quarter of 2011, as opposed to an operating loss of $113.9 million under traditional accounting standards.

 

However, analysts were quick to point out the metric was absurd. "If you are going to capitalize acquisition costs, the onus is on you to show proof that acquired customers stay as customers (and actually buy products for many years)," Aswath Damodaran, Professor of Finance at Stern School of Business and a reputed author of textbooks on valuation, wrote in a blog post.

 

"With strong competition from other online coupon based companies (like LivingSocial), it is entirely possible that customers once acquired, are fickle and move on... If that is the case, the acquisition cost has a very short amortizable life and begins to look more like an operating expense," he wrote.

 

Zynga issued a restatement of its second quarter results saying it did not hew to accounting standards in the way it estimates how long people play its video games. That had the effect of understating revenues during the second quarter. While the impact of the Zynga's restatement itself was not substantial, it highlighted the murky accounting involved when it comes to new business models.  "There is a new market of publicly traded companies with business models that open more room for interpretation on how revenues and costs should be treated. We do see some aggressive accounting techniques" says Dan Mahoney, director of research at the Center for Financial Research and Analysis, a unit of MSCI that specializes in forensic accounting.

Smith of GBQ Consulting says there is a greater risk of financial statement manipulation at such new-age businesses. "We have a lot of new business models and people are still trying to understand how the finances of these companies work," she said. "Companies get to decide what to tell them[investors] on how their industry works. They decide what the metrics should be."

While in a traditional sector an astute analyst might call a company's bluff, it is harder when you don't have history as a guide. "We don't have a typical 10-year history. As a financial professional, you can't make a conclusion on what the financial metrics should look like," says Smith.

Mahoney at CFRA says companies with high valuations are also ripe for these sort of gimmicks, as they are under pressure to sustain valuations.

While in a traditional sector an astute analyst might call a company's bluff, it is harder when you don't have history as a guide. "We don't have a typical 10-year history. As a financial professional, you can't make a conclusion on what the financial metrics should look like," says Smith.

Netflix(NFLX) has been criticized in the past for its calculation of subscriber churn rate, which looks at the number of cancellations as a proportion of subscribers. Netflix's method has the effect of overstating the subscriber base, thus making the churn rate seem lower.

Analysts have over time learned to adjust for this inconsistency. And as it turns out, the movie rental firm has drastically limited the metrics it is willing to provide , saying that in 2012 it will no longer report churn, gross subscriber additions and subscriber acquisition costs.

Problem solved.

Stern's Damodaran says companies resort to these tricks because the market analysts simplistically assign multiples to a profit metric. All companies have to do is "make a change that affects earnings and you can change the valuation," he says. "Investors need to understand what Groupon's business model is, what their potential market is, who are they going up against."

--Written by Shanthi Bharatwaj in New York

>To contact the writer of this article, click here: Shanthi Bharatwaj.



Morgan Stanley Biggest Welfare Recipient as Federal Reserve Lent Banks $1.2 Trillion During Financial CrisisWall St. Cheat Sheet



Dow:Gold Ratio and the Secular Bear Market at Minyanville  Toby Connor Aug 23, 2011 ‘However low the risk, large potential trades are now in the stock market, not in playing chicken with the gold parabola.

 As I have been warning investors for many months, stocks have now entered stage III of the secular bear market. Gold, on the other hand, is now in the final parabolic phase of a 2.5 year C wave advance.

My best guess was that we would see a Dow:Gold ratio of between 5-6 before this C-wave ended. The ratio was at 5.71 as of today. I think we may still have a little further to go on the downside for stocks and a little further upside in gold. So it's entirely possible that we could see a Dow gold ratio of 1:5 before the trends reverse.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/File/August11/tobyc8231.JPG
Click to enlarge

However low the risk, large potential trades are now in the stock market, not in playing chicken with the gold parabola.

Cyclically the stock market is now in the middle of the timing band for an intermediate bottom. Presumably a sharp bear market rally in stocks will trigger a regression to the mean, profit-taking event in the precious metals market (the D-wave).

D-waves almost always test, and sometimes marginally penetrate, the 200-day moving average. I've illustrated in the chart above a rough guess as to where I expect the countertrend rally in stocks and the D-wave correction in gold to retrace.

Keep in mind that the fundamentals for gold have not changed. A D-wave is simply a profit-taking event triggered by an unsustainable parabolic rally. It has nothing to do with fundamentals. Once the D-wave has run its course, gold will enter a sharp snapback rally (the A-wave), after which it should consolidate for the remainder of the bear market in stocks.

Stocks, on the other hand, after what should be a very convincing bear market rally, will roll over and continue down into a final four-year cycle low, probably in the late summer or early fall of 2012.

Depending on whether or not the Fed tries to fight the cleansing process, or Ben Bernanke tries to stop the bear market with another round of quantitative easing, stocks should either test or breach the March '09 lows.

Either way I expect that 2012 will go down as one of the worst years in human history. Certainly in the same category as 1932, if not worse
…’

 

Is the Market Forecasting War?   { Kind of a large dart board in terms of educated guessing in light of the perma-war bent of these perma-war bent nations; viz., ie., u.s., israel, europe, etc.. }  [ If so, and if this writers correct, all natos and americas misguided actions in the Mideast will be viewed as an attempt to weaken Arab nations for the benefit of war-mongering israel and will never be forgotten as such, to the substantial detriment of the dying so-called western alliance. ]



End Of Cycle Smelling Like Dow 3K, Gold 3K  Forbes /  Bill Bonner  Listen up, dear reader herein we announce an historic Daily Reckoning forecast.  Heres your north star, your compass, your GPS to the future. Print it out. Paste it to your refrigerator:

About the turn of the century, two markets turned Gold turned up Stocks turned down These major trends will end Whence they meet

Our view is that the bear market began in January 2000. The feds fought it off with two huge extravaganzas of spending the first beginning in 2001 the other after 2008.

Stimulus does wonders for stock prices but it no longer works for the economy that sustains them. For every dollar that the Fed has put to work to fight the crisis since 2008, for example, it has produced only 80 cents worth of GDP. It didnt work.

Fighting a credit contraction with more credit is a losing proposition. Eventually, investors are bound to realize that stocks are headed down. Eventually the bear market will resume. And eventually it will come to an end.

But when? Our guess is that it will end when the Dow and the price of gold arrive at the same point probably around $3,000. Whatever the number, youll be able to buy the entire group of Dow stocks for the price of one ounce of gold.

Of course, our view is a minority one. Warren Buffett doesnt buy it. Most investors dont buy it. We dont even suggest that you buy it, dear reader. Just remember it. If it turns out as expected, we want to be able to say We told you so.

And if it doesnt work out? Please have the grace to forget we mentioned it.

We would like to be able to predict the future, but weve never gotten the hang of it. Were just guessing.

But since were just guessing, we dont see why we should hold back.

Were also guessing that

the weight of so much debt is depressing growthand will soon depress stock prices too

that the economy is becoming zombified from too much government moneyespecially the military

that Mr. Market is ready for a long bear market anyhow; hes tanned, rested, and ready to go to work

that the US is following in Japans footstepstowards a long period of on-again, off-again recession

that the recession of 08-09 in the US never actually ended

and that stocks will go down over the next 5-10 years until they finally hit a real bottom.

Our guess is that gold goes down, shakes out the speculators and weak investors and then, perhaps a couple years from now, perhaps longer begins its third and final phase.

 

Back-to-School Sales Looking Blahat The Wall Street Journal

 

CHINA, EMERGING MARKETS POINT TO DOUBLE-DIP 2011 August 24 http://www.iphone2die4.com/2011/08/24/china-emerging-markets-point-to-double-dip   iphone-robot ChartProphet submit: The collapse of the emerging markets, especially China, India, and Brazil, will have a huge ripple effect on the rest of the worlds economies, and will plunge most countries back into a global recession.One of the major drivers of the markets over the past two years has been the unstoppable and highly promising future of the emerging markets, especially China. As millions of inhabitants in emerging countries begin to enter the modern world and middle class, their consumption and their effect on the economies of countries all over the globe increases. And as millions of people contribute to the growth of China, India, and other countries, they will require extra food, energy sources such as gasoline and oil, cotton for their increased consumption and clothing needs, industrial metals for their new cars and technology, and many other materials that a growing and evolving population needs…’

 

 

How much higher can Apple shares go without Jobs? (Reuters) [ Or the market without jobs? The answer euphemistally is not much but more accurately should be not all and down quite a bit! ]

 

 

Arguments for Being in the Crash Camp   Conor Sen  Aug 29, 2011 ‘If you want to take risk, only own things you're willing to own in a down 20-30% tape, because that's what we could see over the next month.  ‘This piece is going to read a bit like an inner monologue in the hopes that seeing how I wrestle with conflicting ideas may help with your own thought process. One of the responsibilities of putting your thoughts online for public consumption is only writing when you think you have something worth reading. After awhile you accumulate a portfolio of pieces and can see common themes in your writing, the struggles you've had, and whether you've been on the mark or not. And this summer I've written primarily about three topics: 1) the 2011 consumer tech IPO names led by Groupon, LinkedIn, and Zillow, which I've done a reasonable job with, 2) pessimism about the debt ceiling deal being resolved early due to the intransigence of the 2011 GOP, which I also feel I analyzed well, and 3) the ongoing macro tug-of-war between compelling valuations and the escalating European debt crisis, which I've gotten wrong.

The closest I got was in a June 24 piece where I wrote,

"My experience in 2007-08 taught me that in credit contagions understanding these dynamics is all that matters. Charts don't matter, macro data doesn't really matter, and until the contagion stops valuation doesn't really matter either. A $1 bill could trade for 70 cents if firms need to raise capital."


That's what I fought earlier this month, convinced that valuations for some blue-chip firms and not-as-bad-as-people-think macro data would be good enough. It hasn't been. The problem is, I thought about the issue too narrowly, focusing only on European sovereign spreads without seeing the second-order effects those spreads would eventually have. As sovereign spreads for the European periphery widened, governments responded by imposing austerity measures, which have now flowed through to the point where Europe may be back in recession. Here's one measure of the trend in economic activity for the key European countries.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/LisaCatchJUNE2011/plummet1.jpg

With sovereign spreads stressed and economic activity rolling over, European banks have been under pressure, both the equity and of course the credits, with credit default swaps for European banks at wider levels than they were in 2008-09.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/LisaCatchJUNE2011/plummet2.jpg

The problem with this is that credit spreads and equity prices are intricately linked, as this chart from Goldman Sachs shows comparing the spreads of the key iTraxx Main CDS index with the STOXX 600 index, Europe's equivalent to the S&P 500.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/LisaCatchJUNE2011/plummet3.jpg

And in a leveraged, interconnected world, a systemic problem somewhere flows everywhere else, as investment-grade and high-yield credit indices in the US show.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/LisaCatchJUNE2011/plummet4.jpg

The key question I've asked this week is: Can European banks, or Bank of America, fund themselves right now? The answer is no. That's a problem. If economic data were getting better, even on a green shoots basis, that might be one thing, but just about every data point we've gotten out of Europe recently, or Philly Fed here in the US, has been negative on a second derivative, and in many cases, a first derivative basis.

If we knew that fiscal and monetary policymakers were ready to fire bazookas and gas up their helicopters, that'd be a different story. In 2008-09 we got a big fiscal stimulus package out of China and a lesser but still sizable one in the US. Today we have both the US and Europe looking to cut spending, not increase it. On the monetary policy front, the ECB actually raised rates this summer, and Ben Bernanke's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday shows that either he doesn't think additional stimulus is needed, that it won't help, or that there's too much political risk to take bold action, precisely the problem he said hampered the Japanese in his famous 2002 speech on deflation.

Most worrisome of all might have been comments out of German Chancellor Angela Merkel last weekend, when she said, “Politicians can’t and won’t simply run after the markets. The markets want to force us to do certain things. That we won’t do. Politicians have to make sure that we’re unassailable, that we can make policy for the people.”

This is after a 25% drop in the DAX, and the leader of the country that holds all the cards in Europe says that she won't be bullied by markets. The Bernanke/Merkel/Trichet put may exist, but its strike price appears to be a lot lower than many thought.

When nearly every major bank in Europe has a credit spread north of 300bps or is headed there in a hurry, I'm not going to make the argument that so-so US economic data, solid earnings, and attractive valuations will win out in the short term. Markets are cruel and merciless when it comes to leveraged institutions under financial stress. In 2008-09 to combat this we got TARP, the AIG (AIG) bailout, the stimulus package, the Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program (TLGP), a whole host of other short-term funding programs from the Fed, and finally in March of 2009 we got green shoots, second derivative improvements in the economy. Today we have, "Most of the economic policies that support robust economic growth in the long run are outside the province of the central bank." If the SPX went to 700-800 we would see multi-generational bargains for a whole host of names, many of which would trade at around cash value plus a 2-3 multiple on earnings. But structurally, there's no reason why it can't happen. If you want to take risk here, only own things you're willing to own in a down 20-30% tape, because that's what we could see over the next month.’

 

 

 

Stocks Woosh Higher in Vacuum, Now Perfectly Poised for Disappointment at The Wall Street Journal

 



 

What to Expect Next From the Markets at Minyanville  Jeffrey Cooper Aug 29, 2011  ‘Conclusion: It looks like a program was run using the least amount of dollars to goose the indices by focusing on some big cap names like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Baidu (BIDU), IBM (IBM), and Caterpillar (CAT) on Friday. That is why the market is so dangerous here ‘   ‘From a technical perspective, the markets are looking dangerous right now. On Friday, a big buy program was run for Ben Bernanke’s speech after running the stops and getting traders short.

The S&P buckled after breaking the 1154 mid-point of the recent range, running the stops and trapping shorts for good measure on a Pinocchio of the key 1140 support, as offered in the last report.

However a first hour low was scored in a mirror image of recent first hour highs and I sent an alert to cover shorts. Combined with Bernanke’s speech, the flip was switched to save a poor weekly close when the S&P recaptured 1154.

A 10 minute chart of the SPY shows a downside ORB (a break of the opening range defined by the first 30 minutes) to flush the stops, and then an ORB Reversal back through the level of the downside pivot, followed by a powerful Reverse ORB on a thrust back through the top of the opening range implying a trend day to the upside.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/cooper/0811/29/ARCX_SPY_10%20--%20SPDR%20S&P%20500%20TRUST.jpg

The promise of the Catapult ORB -- first to the downside then back to the upside -- was further fulfilled on penetrating topside lateral resistance above 117 SPY.

In so doing, the notion of a Fed Cha Cha Cha was turned into more of a jitterbug for the shorts to run for cover.

The ensuing extension by the SPY led to a retracement back to the low of Thursday’s high bar.

Thursday gave a first hour high while Friday gave a first hour low as the robots play ping pong with tape.

One might fairly call Friday the “case of the missing ‘cha’".

Typically following Fedspeak, there is a sequence of 3 moves in opposite directions with the third move being the genuine bias.

In Thursday morning’s report I suggested that the direction following the first hour on that day should be the bias into the weekend. There was a change of character in the dynamics which the Reverse ORB did a good job of identifying.

There is another short term change in character implying a continuation on Monday morning (whether that will define a first hour high again near the important 1180ish resistance remains to be seen).

That short term change in character is set up by Friday’s Reversal of a Reversal, or what I call a ‘Kaiser Soze’.

Why? The important Three Day Chart Turned down on Monday as the S&P traced out 3 consecutive lower daily lows. In addition, Monday saw the Weekly Swing Chart turn down.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/cooper/0811/29/SPXweeklyJulyb.jpg
Click to enlarge

The fact that the turndown was marginal and defined a low immediately in terms of both time and price was a bullish indication of a short term test and a potential short term “W” bottom on the daily charts.

The takeaway was a multi-day rally which played out, finally satisfying a kiss of the overhead 20 day moving average which the S&P failed to accomplish on the first rally off the lows.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/cooper/0811/29/INDEX_$SPX_D%20--%20S&P%20500%20INDEX%20%7BDelay20%7D.jpg

The tag of the 20 dma, which played out on Thursday, was the first test of that trendline since the Cascade Setup began in July.

A pullback to the 20 dma is referred to by many traders as the Holy Grail for its effectiveness in defining a reversal point -- especially the first time.

Like clockwork, the S&P was rejected by the 20 dma on Thursday in concert with a turnup of the Three Day Chart. This defined another high, setting up a continuation trade for Friday to the downside.

However, a funny thing happened when the bears pressed the case of the “yes we have no QE3 Bananas for you” speech at the Jackson Hole forum -- the S&P left a Reversal of a Reversal, stopping right at the 20 day moving average and flirting with an extension above it this morning. This would coincide with a breakout over a trendline from late July.

Not all breakouts are created equal, as we saw with the breakout to a new high in May this year and also on the short-lived trendline breakout into the important July 7th pivot high.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/cooper/0811/29/SPXdailyAprilb.jpg
Click to enlarge

My rule of thumb is that breakouts and upspikes in persistent bear phases are made for the selling. However, as the weekly chart of the S&P shows, the index will turn its weekly chart back up on trade over last week's high of 1190.68 (Thursday’s first hour high).

The normal expectation is that this would set up another high, but because of the pattern of the W bottom, the constructive behavior on last week's turndown of the Weekly Swing Chart, and because the S&P is poised to pop over its 20 dma this morning which coincides with a breakout over a declining trendline, there is a likelihood that the bears will keep their claws in their pockets and the bulls may snort a little. While I would give the market its due on the upside if the action is constructive following the turn up of the weekly chart -- which the futes suggest will occur near the open -- I am not too interested in being long more than a few hours and overnight.

Be that as it may, a further change in short term behavior and constructive action following a turn up of the Weekly Swing Chart suggests a move to/over 1208, the recent swing high.

 

At the same time the the 55-day panic point from the July 7th pivot window does not close until August 31st, so this is tricky here. However, the market is not a fine Swiss watch and when it comes to these cycles one must allow for plus or minus a few days. I think we should key off the behavior following a turnup in the weekly chart and the action following the first hour. If the trend is still in runaway down mode, another high could be defined quickly. I would exercise some patience here and let the market speak.

The cycles suggest another short-term plunge into September 3rd and then a bigger rally to 1220 or higher into/around the end of the first week of September to September 11th. It then suggests another plunge that undercuts the 1100 low to possibly as low as 1018ish. If a flush of the lows plays out under 1100, it could mirror the pattern from 1937 or 1938. In other words it could be a fractal of the first waterfall decline with a marginal undercut, or we could see a deep flush of the lows.

The takeaway is that not all W bottoms are created equal. Often a W V pattern plays out. This is the pattern that played out from the triangle/consolidation in late 2008 to the “V” in March ’09.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/cooper/0811/29/DJ-30%201937%20-%201938%20final%202.jpg

While the institutional bulls are caught long on the trap door setup from August, a little strategy is required: above 1180 and then 1200 could see the S&P test 1220ish. This marks the double tops from April/November 2010. When the market knifed though those prior highs, which should have been ultimate support if the trend was still healthy, the Head & Shoulders Top projection to 1150 at a minimum became irrefutable. Those prior peaks near 1220, now broken, should offer substantial resistance. However, with many funds trapped short and everyone looking for a test of the neckline near 1250/1260 and a test of the 200 day moving average as it turns down, reconfirming the sign of the bear, it’s anybody’s guess if the sellers let it get back there -- at least in September. Perhaps a test of the 200 day plays out after a ‘W V’ and a flush of the lows, leading to a big “Bankers Rally”/Christmas rally to rescue bonuses, like in 2007.

Conclusion: It looks like a program was run using the least amount of dollars to goose the indices by focusing on some big cap names like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Baidu (BIDU), IBM (IBM), and Caterpillar (CAT) on Friday.

That is why the market is so dangerous here -- because despite big gains in these names when a big fund turns around to liquidate, they find few substantial bids on the way back down and these same stocks can be down 4 and 5 points again with another 400 point DJIA down day. When exactly that next break comes is anybody’s guess, but cycles suggest it is sooner rather than later. I would be patient about being too long for more than a few hours to a day or two for the time being. With everyone looking for the Big Backtest of the 200 dma, it is also anybody’s guess as to when that arrives -- from here or following a flush out of the lows. With everyone eyeing perceived targets of S&P 1220 to 1250, will the market just burn out here with everybody waiting and with an undercut of the lows having to play out before a better rally into year end? It is interesting that the war cycle from 1990 -- when Iraq's invasion of Kuwait on August 2nd precipitated a market waterfall -- that there was a July pivot high as there was this year.

In 1990 there was no low until October. August 2, 1990 was 252 months ago, tying to the big September 3rd historic cycle (which includes the 1929 all time high). In addition we have the 120 month anniversary of 9/11 and that Spike & Reversal pattern coming up, so I think a lot of volatility remains in store and patience and discipline will be critical no matter how good a short term change in character appears.

Strategy: I would look to scalp long above 1170 and scalp short below 1160. Monday may hold up, but it will be interesting to see if we reach the high for the week today -- in bear phases the first hour of the session often times scores the high for the day. If Tuesday is a reversal day, I suspect the market will trend down into the Labor Day weekend. If the market rallies up into the weekend it should define another ledge and jumping off point.

Gold broke according to expectations early last week from just above 1900. Another short sets up in the 1820 zone if it hasn’t already topped with a turnup of the daily charts on Friday. Ditto iShares Silver Trust (SLV). The next break should target 1660 and below that 1590.’

 

 

[video] Markets Bouncing From High Frequency Traders at TheStreet.com   Consumer Confidence Collapses, Dragging Market Lower   WSJ Marketbeat Mark Gongloff A Dispirited Fed Chairman Emerges at Jacksons Hole    Obama's Legacy: A Failed Recovery & Double-Dip Recession Forbes / Mariotti  Tomorrow's Tape: The Pretenders at The Wall Street Journal      Another Seinfeld Rally WSJ Marketbeat Mark Gongloff Minyanville's T3 Daily Recap: Fed Minutes Lift Market After Poor Consumer Confidence Readingat Minyanville T3Live.com Aug 30, 2011

 

Obama's Legacy: A Failed Recovery & Double-Dip Recession Forbes / Mariotti  There will be no significant recovery in the United States of America while Barack Obama is President.  The evidence is overwhelming:  everything Obama has tried to fuel a recovery (with his Democratic allies in Congress) has failed.  Statistics claiming jobs saved by the stimulus package were mostly fiction, and cost American taxpayers about $275,000 each.  Nearly 2-1/2 million fewer Americans have jobs than before the stimulus.

Barack Obama has been President for 30 months2-1/2 years. He spent the first year obsessed with passing Obamacare, a program that doesnt create jobs, but might destroy a lot of them.  He bailed out GM, but many believe that his interference didnt save GM; it merely cost taxpayers an extra $15-20 billion, and stole from legitimate investors to buy off the UAW.  His broken campaign promises are too numerous to list.  At some point, his statute of limitations on blaming Bush runs out.  The latest joke is that the White House is that named the location of East Coast earthquake near DC Bushs Fault.

Obama himself said, “…that after three years, if the economy wasnt fixed he should be a one-term president.

Clearly the economic malaise started on George W. Bushs watch.  Its causes will be argued for decades, but most of them are traceable to irresponsible lending and excessive spending both by government and the American people.  The trouble that started before 2008 is directly traceable to actions (or inactions) of Bush and GOP allies in Congress.  They spent America into the start of the current deficit during his eight years in the White House.

But that was then, and this is now. Since Obama took office the situation has gotten much, much worse. Obama has run up the deficit at more than twice the rate Bush did. During the first quarter of 2011, the US economy barely grew at 0.4%that was followed by second quarters anemic growth of 1%.  This was during the period when the Obama recovery was supposed to be well underway.  Employment data is unremittingly terrible:  new jobless claims are stuck at 400,000+/- each month, with job creation well below what it takes just to absorb new workforce entrants.  More Americans have been unemployed longer than ever in our history.  And looking ahead, the news is not good.

This is Obamas failed American recovery, and in the near future, Obamas impending double-dip recession (thanks in no small part to his three consecutive years with Trillion-dollar in deficits that have inflated the national deficit to soaring heights$14+ Trillion.)  That legacy clearly belongs to President Barack Obama and with help from the Congress led by Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi during 2008-2010.   Thanks to them, our country hasnt even had a budget since Obama took office.

The latest Obama Blame Finger pointing focuses on the Tea Party as extremists who have a problem with astronomical deficits as far as the eye can see.  (Pointing at Bush is getting a little old since hes been out of office for 2-1/2 years).  Obama needs a new scapegoat.  The problem with the Tea Party is that it is like the child in the fairy tale, The Emperors New Clothes. The child is reviled for pointing out that the emperor is naked.  Thus, the Tea Party is not wrong, just unwelcome.

Now Obama also wants to point the Blame Finger at the GOP House for the downgrade in the US debt rating by Standard and Poors.  It seems that he believes that everyone else is to blame but him. That downgrade was predestined by the combination of irresponsible spending and Obamas clueless attempts to throw money at a recovery to no avail.  Spending $1.50 for every dollar of revenue, running trillion dollar annual deficits is reason enough for a downgrade in the US debt rating.

Face it folks:  This is Obamas failed recovery. And if (or when) it comes to pass, this double-dip recession (just around the corner) is his too.

Make no mistake, there IS plenty of blame to go around.  About 75% of Americans are fed up with both Obama and Congress.   The conservative and liberal factions of the House and Senate behaved badly in the recent debt ceiling negotiation.  President Obama wanted to stay above the fray so he provided no leadership. He didnt even know how to bring the opposing viewpoints together.  He talked about bi-partisanship and consensus, but his actions disproved his words.

Until the president saw an impending disaster, he sat on the sidelines, afraid to do anything that might hinder his reelection campaign.  Then, when his intervention didnt help, and arguably hurt the progress, he grew impatient, petulant and angry.

John Boehner, however, did an admirable job trying to build a compromise deal on the debt ceiling, and get his own Caucus to support such a plan.  Except, Obama was attacked by his liberal base for even considering the grand bargain, so he came in and dumped another raise taxes more demand on Boehner.  Id have walked out too, which Boehner was right to do.

But at least they were arguing about the right thing: how much to cut spending and how.

The Tea Partys desire for fiscal responsibility is right, but it doesnt mean that tax revenue cant be increased.  It can; how its done is what matters.  The tax code desperately needs to be restructured.  Simply digging in on old positions doesnt help; it hurts.  The goal is to get the country working again, and grow our way out of this mess.

The one phrase of President Obamas that I agree with is Country First.  But John Boehner was the one who tried his best to put Country First.  If Obama truly chooses that as his 2012 campaign slogan, it will reek of hypocrisy.

If the members of Congress would put 1) country first, 2) constituents wishes next, and 3) personal agendas last, they might be able to work together to find a way out of this mess.

What happens in the Super-Committee of Twelve will be both revealing and predictive.  Either Americas Congressional leaders willor wontput "country first" and try to find common ground and reasonable compromises to lead America out of this mess.

Whatever happens, this failed recovery and impending recession belong to President Barack Obama.  His condescending explanations of why we Americans dont get it, how this will take a long time, this recovery, and his class warfare about millionaires and billionaires versus the common folk are all wearing thin.

This kind of rhetoric wont solve Americas problems.   It takes strong, informed, and experienced leadership to get through a mess like this one. We need a fixer, not a hypocritical speechmaker in the White House.  Barack Obama is not that man.  A wise man once told me, The person who got you into a problem is seldom the one who will get you out of it. Thats why there will be no recovery on Obamas watch…’

 



Chart Shock: The REAL Unemployment Rate Is 22% The Daily Bail September 2, 2011 http://www.infowars.com/chart-shock-the-real-unemployment-rate-is-22

http://dailybail.com/storage/chart-real-unemployment-3.gif?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1314981227699

’It’s now above 23% with the August update.  Details from John William’s Shadow Stats.’  Shadow Stats ‘The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers. The U-3 unemployment rate is the monthly headline number. The U-6 unemployment rate is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) broadest unemployment measure, including short-term discouraged and other marginally-attached workers as well as those forced to work part-time because they cannot find full-time employment.’

 

 

 

Deja Vu All Over Again: Total US Debt Passes Debt Ceiling… In Under One Month Since Extension  Sep 2nd, 2011 News (ZeroHedge) — ‘Remember when one month ago the US, to much pomp and circumstance, not to mention one downgrade, announced a grand bargain raising the debt ceiling from $14.294 trillion to something much higher, with a stop gap intermediate ceiling of $14.694 trillion, or $400 billion more. Well, as of today, or less than a month since the expansion, total US debt is at $14.697 trillion. Yep – the total debt is again over the ceiling, which means the US debt increased by $400 billion in one month. Score one for fiscal prudence. And while the total debt subject to the limit is still slightly less, at $14.652, one week of Treasury auctions and will be time for Moody’s to justify again why the US is a quadruple A credit.  http://www.usagold.com/pete/newsviews/DebtCeiling.jpg 

 

 

 

 

Global Recession: Right Here, Right Now at Minyanville  Mike Mish Shedlock Sep 02, 2011 Why are we talking about avoiding recession when the global economy is clearly in one and fundamentals are horrendous?

 

  It's time to stop debating whether or not the US or Europe is headed into recession. The facts show the entire global economy is in recession.

Global Recession Supporting Data-Points


Ten Thoughts

1. Prior stimulus in the US is dead, having run its full course.
2. There is no incentive in the US Congress for more stimulus.
3. Austerity measures have yet to hit Italy and France.
4. Austerity measures will continue to bite Spain, Greece, Ireland.
5. Germany's export machine will die without the rest of Europe.
6. QE3 will fail much sooner than QE2 as interest rates already extremely accommodating.
7. Gold may respond well to competitive currency devaluation schemes.
8. The Eurozone is highly likely to breakup, although timing is unknown.
9. Global equities and commodities are priced for perfection.
10. Perfection is not happening.

 Talk of avoiding recession when the global economy is clearly in one and fundamentals are horrendous is sheer lunacy. For more, see Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis here.

 

U.S. Postal Service nearing bankruptcy as email asserts its dominance [Good! Let UPS take them over the usps is totally unreliable]

 

 

Albert Edwards Has Another Reason You Should Worry About Profits at The Wall Street Journal  Mark Gongloff

http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OB-PM490_margin_K_20110906142805.jpg

Brendan posted earlier about how Citigroup is getting worried about profit margins. Theyre not alone Soc Gens in-house Dr. Doom, Albert Edwards, has a note today with his own take on the subject.

Shockingly, Mr. Edwardss take is downbeat!

While Citi focused on the impact of government spending on corporate profits, Mr. Edwards zeroes in on the recent collapse in productivity and surge in labor costs and what they say about margins:

Last week the BLS revised the unit labor cost rise in Q2 up from 2.2% to 3.3% quarter over quarter. US non-farm business unit labour costs are now rising by 2% year over year. That is very bad news for profits. Bad news for equities. And because the pace of ULC is a key driver of inflation (upwards in this instance), it is bad news for an increasingly criticised and divided Fed.

Since labour costs overwhelmingly dominate corporate costs, trends in productivity are crucial to the pace of growth of company profits. If unit labour cost growth is below unit price inflation, then unit margins are expanding. This, together with unit sales growth (and the less important unit non-labour costs), arithmetically determine profit growth.

Typically, productivity growth tends to ebb and flow with the economic cycle i.e. productivity tends to rise as the economy accelerates and vice versa. Therefore unit labour costs tend to fall sharply early in economic recoveries (as has happened recently), but typically begin to rise and eventually exceed output price inflation later in the cycle.

When unit labour costs start to rise quicker than output prices, as is the case now, this tends to exert an upward pressure on inflation as companies try to maintain margins. The pass-through of this upward pressure on inflation is largely determined by the pace of the cycle. If demand is robust, inflation will rise. If demand is weak and companies cannot pass on cost increases, margins and profits get crushed. That is the tipping point we have now reached.

And Wall Street analysts, in a truly shocking development, actually seem to be paying attention, Mr. Edwards writes:

[W]e should not be surprised at the pace of deterioration in analyst earnings optimism: in fact we have seen a near record rate of decline in US estimates over the past six months. In Europe things are even worse! As Andrew Lapthorne shows in this week’’s Global Equity Market Arithmetic, European (ex UK) the level of analyst optimism has now dived to 24%, a level only ever reached in recession.

 

 

 

Why Every Investor Needs to Time the Market Breakout  In tumultuous times conventional wisdom suggests buying then holding high quality, blue chip, dividend paying stocks for stability. The big idea is to avoid "timing the market" by extending the time frame beyond the current day, month, year or even decade. The value/yield camp tends to view volatile markets, such as that of 2011, as a chance to add to a portfolio while flighty "traders" panic in and out of stocks.The mathematical fact is those who have bought and held stocks over the last 3, 5 or even 10 years have lost money, either on an absolute basis or relative to inflation. Missing the 50% drop of 2008 didn't require intuition, charting or sophisticated financial analysis. Selling the news when Bear Stearns got sold for $2 got you out of the S&P500 well over 1,250. Selling the news of the Lehman collapse got you out of stocks well over 1,200 on the S&P. Once out, investors had two years to get back into the market below where they made their exit. I don't particularly regard stepping aside as trading; it's common sense. If investing in this manner is a mug's game, buying and holding forever, putting Blue Chips in a drawer forever, or dollar-cost averaging have been tantamount to financial self-abuse…’   This Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold and Hope http://www.albertpeia.com/endofbuyandhold.htm Brian Rezny June 03, 2010 Buy and hold investing is a popular strategy, and the thinking is straightforward: in the long run, the market will offer returns, in spite of short-term volatility. In theory, this is a sensible idea. Unfortunately, this approach does not work in todays market. Why not? Of course, the market is down for this month. But thats not the reason this is not a buy and hold environment. Its not just about the recent correction, or the end of a market rally. The current trend fits into a much bigger picture and its a picture of a long-term bear market. Secular markets are long-term trends, typically lasting about 18 years…’  [ This was true and among my conclusions even back in 1977 when I did my MBA thesis: MBA Finance, NYU GBA, 1977. It most assuredly is glaringly true today.  Fed Economists Predict A 15 Year Bear Market For Stocks Aug 23rd, 2011 News (BusinessInsider)  ,  A Decade of Decline in Equity Markets Faisal Humayun [ This is a must read and explains how the markets been artificially propped, the dow relative to hard assets, ie., gold (dow/gold ratio), has actually crashed 78%, and comparable prospects for the next decade, etc.. ‘…The Dow Jones Index was trading at 11,357 levels at the beginning of the year 2000. More than a decade later (as of beginning July 2011), the index is at 12582 (11,297). Therefore, the index has gained 11%  (-0-% as of this day) in the last ten years…’ Yet, the inflationary dollar (declining) debasement rate was 31%. (-31%) {See the inflation calculator infra and thats just the government (inflation) numbers reality is much worse!} Meanwhile, the frauds on wall street are churnin and earnin like never before at lightning computerized speeds enabling the high-frequency trades that are commissioned in unprecedented large volumes; a big net negative in real economic terms.]   



 

Prepare For Recession And Bear Market at Forbes Sy Harding, Brace yourself for a recession.

Central banks around the world seem to be doing so, making little effort to prevent it this time around, resigned to letting the business cycle play out.

Stock markets around the world also seem to be doing so. In anticipation of economic slowdowns that wont slide all the way into recessions, stock markets normally decline only into corrections (declines of less than 20%). But they plunge into bear markets when recessions loom.

And global stock markets outside of the U.S. are already in full-fledged bear markets. That includes 10 of the worlds 12 largest economies, the exceptions being only the U.S. and Canada.

In order of the size of their economies, at the recent August lows the stock market in China, the worlds second largest economy, was down 23% from its November peak, Japan down 21%, Germany down 30%, France down 29%, the United Kingdom down 21%, Brazil down 33%, Italy down 39%, India down 25%, Russia down 28%, and Spain down 29%. The exceptions were the U.S. and Canada, which at their August lows were down only 16% (the Dow) and 18% respectively.

The recession and bear market are coming to the U.S. too, and may have already arrived.

You can be sure of that because its been one world economically for years, and historically global economies and stock markets tended to always move in and out of recessions and bear markets together even before their dependence on each other became so pronounced.

You can be sure of it because central banks seem willing to let it play out this time as in days of old, without intervention.

In the financial crisis of 2007-2008, it took a massive coordinated effort by global central banks to pull the world back from the brink of what would have been a total global financial collapse.

But when their economies began to slow again in 2010, without the world being on the brink of financial Armageddon, major nations outside of the U.S. were content to let the business cycle play out normally, arguing against the U.S. Feds decision to jump in with its QE2 stimulus efforts.

Indeed, while the Fed was making that massive monetary easing effort, central banks in Asia, Europe, and South America were tightening monetary policies and raising interest rates to ward off rising inflation, and to tackle the government debt crises created by their 2008-2009 bailout efforts.

The Feds QE2 effort pushed a flood of additional dollars into the global financial system, spiking the prices of commodities and paper assets like stocks, but had no lasting effect on even the U.S. economy.

This year, as global economies again slow significantly, central banks outside of the U.S. again seem content, or at least resigned, to letting the business and economic cycle play out, even though it likely means a global recession.

They refrain from saying anything too negative that might make matters worse, but for instance, this week the central bank of Brazil, which actually has one of the worlds strongest and fastest growing economies (but highest rate of inflation), warned that this downturn in global economies will not be as severe as in 2008-2009, but will be more prolonged.

The Financial Times reported Friday that As the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Developments forecasts showed on Thursday, the near-term economic outlook for the Group of Seven is dire, yet the mood is one of resignation. . . . Finance ministers across the G7 are searching for ways to explain their lack of likely coordinated action.

And even in the U.S., the Federal Reserve has been clearly transparent about its reluctance to intervene this time.

With the economy far weaker than it was when the Fed intervened with QE2 last year, Fed Chairman Bernanke continues to say the Fed has some tools it can use if necessary, but will wait and see. In his most recent speeches he cautioned that the Fed is limited in what it can do anyway, and called for Congress to step up to the plate.

Thursday evening, President Obama did call for Congress to step up to the plate and pass his $450 billion jobs bill.

But even if the proposal should get through the political grinder of the grid-locked Congress, it would be too little too late by the time it could be implemented.

So prepare for a recession and bear market.

Hopefully investors learned from the 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 bear markets that Wall Streets advice to diversify into defensive stocks wont do it. As Ive shown you in previous columns, so-called defensive stocks, defensive because they pay high dividends or have been around a long time, are dragged down just as far as any in a bear market.

Back in the old days the call of successful investors in times like this was that cash is king. Even receiving little to no interest income on cash was better than experiencing a 30 to 40% loss.

These days investors are better served. The availability of inverse mutual funds and inverse exchanged-traded funds, designed to move up when markets move down, make them the new king in bear markets. Cash may be better than losses, but the opportunities for 30% profits while others are experiencing 30% losses are even better.

In the interest of full disclosure, I and my subscribers have already taken double-digit profits from positions in the ProShares Short S&P 500 etf, symbol SH, and ProShares Short Russell 2000 etf, symbol RWM, and were looking at others.

 

 

4 Bearish Mega Trends   Simon Maierhofer, September 9, 2011, ‘In 2004, Daniel Simons of the University of Illinois and Christopher Chabris of Harvard University conducted an experiment that was as simple as it was fascinating.

If you want to be part of the experiment, watch this video before you read any further.

The Experiment

There are two groups of three people each. One group is wearing black shirts, the other group white shirts. The assignment is to watch how many times the players wearing white, pass the basketball.

If you counted 15, you are correct. But more importantly, did you notice the gorilla? While you were counting passes, a woman dressed in a gorilla suit walked slowly across the scene, stopped to face the camera and thumped her chest.

Half of the people watching the video with the intent of counting passes did not see the gorilla. The experiment illustrates the phenomenon of unintentional blindness. This condition, also known as perceptual blindness, prevents people from perceiving things that are in plain sight.

For most of 2010-11 Wall Street was so enamored by the magical powers of QE2 that it forgot about the 800-pound gorilla - the economy that wasn't improving. In fact, the economy continued deteriorating in plain sight.

There are five bearish mega trends that may draw stock prices much lower over the coming years. Here are the five mega trends (and what will make stocks rally in between).

U.S. Deficit

For a moment, take a mental journey with me back in time. We are now in early 2008. The major indexes a la S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI), and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) are slowly coming off their all-time high, but the collapse of Lehman Brothers has not yet hit the news.

Unbeknownst to most, the perfect financial storm is brewing. Once the storm hits, it is much worse than anyone expected. But, the eventual damage is limited. Why? Because, the government steps up and does what it takes to prevent the financial system from failing.

Today has the feel of early 2008. Another perfect storm may be brewing. Will the government be there to do what it takes to support 'too big to fail?' No! In 2008 financial companies were in trouble. In 2011 entire countries (look at Europe and the U.S.) are struggling to escape the grip of delinquency.

A Decelerating Generation

Starting in 2011, more than 10,000 baby boomers a day will turn 65, a pattern that will continue for the next 19 years. This dry humor cartoon encapsulates the problem retirees' face today:

Two older gentlemen are having a drink. One says: 'As a Baby Boomer, I never thought the boom would be the sound of my retirement accounts collapsing.' He'd like to sip on a nice Scotch while enjoying a steak, but has to settle for water and free bread sticks at Olive Garden.

Most retirees still haven't recovered from the lost decade. Let's make the term lost decade more personal. A 55 year old with $100,000 in his retirement account at the beginning of the year 2000 and a 6% projected rate of return, would have $201,419 today.

The S&P trades 20% below its 2000 level. Courtesy of the lost decade, that $100,000 in the year 2000 has turned into $80,000 today (perhaps less if invested too aggressively). In other words, many retirees may have to get by on less than half of their expected nest egg. In addition, their home, rather than being an asset (many considered it an ATM a few years ago), has turned into a liability.

It doesn't take much imagination to see that strapped retirees are bad for economic growth. When the focus is on survival rather than pleasure, sectors like technology (NYSEArca: XLK - News), retail (NYSEArca: XRT - News), and consumer discretionary (NYSEArca: XLY - News) suffer.

In addition, baby boomers that have been buying stocks for decades (think of all the 401k money) are now turning into sellers of stock.

Low Interest Rates

Low interest rates are great for the U.S. government because it reduces debt payments on Treasuries and businesses wanting to expand. Unfortunately, businesses don't feel like expanding or even hiring and for pretty much everyone else low interest rates are negative.

Some try to sell the idea that low interest rates are good for stocks (NYSEArca: VTI - News) because money will flow from low interest bonds into stocks in an effort to get a better return.

The chart below plots the Nikkei against Japan's version of the discount rate. The discount rate has been below 1% since 1995. At the same time the Nikkei has dropped from above 20,000 to below 10,000. Much of this happened during a raging global bull market. Imagine what a global bear market can do to U.S. stocks.

                    https://www.etfguide.com//contributor/UserFiles/8/Image/yahoo%20japan%20discount.gif

Low interest rates are a double negative because they reduce available spending for retirees who need to get as much income as possible to survive.

Coming to a Head

The above three bearish trends were highlighted in detail in various 2011 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletters. Due to those, and other mega trends, the Newsletter has been expecting a major market top.

For much of 2011 however, the expectation of a major market top was postponed until the ideal target range was reached. The April 3 ETF Profit Strategy update included a precise range for a major market top: 'In terms of resistance levels, the 1,369 - 1,382 range is a strong candidate for a reversal of potentially historic proportions. '

Why was S&P 1,369 - 1,382 a candidate for a reversal of historic proportions? The chart below, published by the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter in March and many times since, has the answer.

                   https://www.etfguide.com//contributor/UserFiles/8/Image/yahoo%20M%20pattern.gif

What you see is a giant M, or head and shoulders top. The right shoulder was made up of the parallel trend channel that connects the 2002 and 2009 low, with the 2000 high. In April/May the upper line of the trend channel ran through 1,377. Additional resistance was provided by Fibonacci levels at 1,389 and 1,369.

On May 2, the S&P briefly spiked as high as 1,370.58 before retreating and eventually dropping 18% in twelve trading days (July 25 - August 9). Once the S&P dropped below the 200-day SMA it entered free fall territory.

The July 28 ETF Profit Strategy update warned that: 'A break below the 200-day SMA and the trend line may trigger panic selling. One way to avoid missing out on a potentially big opportunity is to use the 200-day SMA at 1,284 as delineation between bullish and bearish bets - buy as long as the 200-day SMA serves as support, sell if it becomes resistance.'

From top to bottom (once the bottom is in), the S&P will have fallen more than 250 points. No doubt this kind of move validates a counter trend rally. When and where will this rally start and how high will it go?

The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter provides a detailed outlook for the remainder of 2011 along with the target for a 2011 bottom and 2011 top. The Newsletter doesn't promise to get every turn of the market right, but it will identify the money-losing gorillas. Just imagine if you sold your holdings at the target range for a major top.

 

 

Zero Job Growth in August Supports Recession Case ETFguide.com

 

 

Why to Sell When Wall Street Says 'Buy' and Vice Versa ETFguide.com

 

S&P 1,100 And Lower - More Likely Than you Think Simon Maierhofer, On Friday September 9, 2011, ‘The S&P has been chopping around aimlessly for nearly a month. Wednesday ETF Profit Strategy update explained the reason and the outcome as follows:

'The aimless sideways trading and lack of powerful and predominantly one-directional rally suggests that the S&P is stuck in a mild up side correction to be followed by new lows. Range bound trading lulls investors into a false sense of security.'

Here are more than a handful of reasons why new lows are likely.

Up Trend Broken

The chart below shows the Dow Jones Industrials (DJI: ^DJI) since the March 2009 bottom. The DJIA weekly candle low touched the yellow trend line on different occasions before breaking through it on August 2.

The S&P 500 (SNP: ^GSPC) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) adhered to a similar but not as pronounced trend line. But the S&P also had a key experience on August 2. The August 2 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter update observed regarding a head and shoulders top that the: 'S&P is about to break below the neckline around 1,249. A break below this neckline would unlock a measured target of S&P 1,140.'

The fact that both the DJIA and S&P 500 broke through necklines that have held for over two years is less than encouraging.

In addition, the S&P's May 2 high at 1,370 occurred right within the sweet spot of a major market top. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter published the chart below on various occasions throughout March, April and May and preached that S&P 1,369 - 1,382 is the ideal target range for a major market top (chart below was featured in the April 5 ETF Profit Strategy update).

                                         https://www.etfguide.com/images/PDNewsletter_Images/5%20-%20April%203%20TF.jpg                           

Death Cross

The death cross is one of the most talked about technical events, that's why I don't put too much stock in it. However, there are two interesting facts about previous death crosses.

The 2000 and 2007 death cross occurred about three days before the S&P embarked on its next leg down. The 2010 death cross was actually a buy signal. However, it occurred after the S&P and DJIA bounced off the yellow trend line (this time the trend line was broken).

Seasonality

August, September, and October is the most bearish stretch of the year. September and October sport negative performance even in the pre-election year.

Sentiment

From S&P 1,370 on May 2 to S&P 1,258 on June 16, the S&P shed 112 points and sentiment measured by Investors Intelligence (II) and the American Association for Individual Investors (AAII) turned deeply bearish. The June 16 ETF Profit Strategy update took that as a queue to buy (long positions were closed at S&P 1,340).

From S&P 1,353 on July 7 to S&P 1,102 on August 9 the S&P lost 251 points, yet the II sentiment poll registered the second most bullish reading since the first week of May. AAII and II polls are often considered the 'dumb money.' If the 'dumb money' views last Wednesday's low as a buying opportunity, the 'smart money' should be suspicious.

VIX Pattern

If you have the charting capabilities, take a moment and plot the VIX (NYSEArca: VXX - News) against the S&P for the month of September - November 2008 and April - July 2010. If you don't have the time you may simply look at the chart below.

                                         https://www.etfguide.com/images/PDNewsletter_Images/yahoo%20-%20vix%20pattern.gif           

What we've seen in 2008 and 2010 is that a VIX peak did not coincide with the S&P bottom. The S&P bottom actually occurred against a lower VIX reading. If this pattern continues, we will see lower lows.

The August 14 ETF Profit Strategy update includes a detailed analysis of the VIX pattern, along with the time frame and target level for an expected turn.

The Script

Via more or less accidental chart surfing I found a striking resemblance between the 2007 market top and the May 2011 top.  This moved me to state in the July 17 Profit Strategy update that:

'There is a similar trend line and a triple top above the trend line. A break below that trend line could be a precursor of bad things. Next week the trend line will be at about 1,262.'

The S&P sliced through that trend line on August 4 and fell an additional 12% within the next four days (this ascending trend line is now a big target and resistance).

The August 7 Profit Strategy update revisited that script and concluded this: 'We now have a rough script; let's see how much lip the actors will add during the live performance (I.e. S&P downgrade).

The two main things I have taken away from the 2007 script are:

1) There will be a new low.

2) There will be a powerful counter trend rally to around 1,xxx (reserved for subscribers).'

Short-term Outlook

Wednesday's (September 7) ETF Profit Strategy update advised aggressive investors to short the S&P 500 as soon as it breaks below 1,173. This doesn't mean that stocks can't go higher, but shorting the S&P against major support/resistance (with a tight stop-loss above) is the only conservative way to assure participation in the next leg down…’

 

 

Ominous Bear Flag Pattern Suggests S&P 500 At 1,000  Scott Redler Talk of a possible Greek debt default grew louder as the day wore on Friday, with several euro zone officials commenting that they expect a default over the weekend. Naturally, the markets didnt respond positively to the news. Combine that with the terror alerts in New York City and Washington, D.C., this weekend for the 10th anniversary of 9/11, and it was a recipe for heavy selling.

The Dow closed off more than 300 points to finish another wildly volatile week, and based on the action and news, we could be headed for another huge Monday morning gap down. However, it was difficult to chase shorts at the end of the day at such oversold levels, because if the Greek default doesnt come to fruition and there is no major terrorist attack, those short positions would likely be in serious pain.

The news of a possible Greek default, which would be a historic first-time event, overshadowed any individual stock stories today. In isolation, the default of a relatively small Eurozone economy would not be the end of the world, but with other, larger Euro economies standing on extremely shaky ground (especially Italy), such an event could trigger a domino effect unlike anything ever witnessed in modern human history.

Conventional wisdom would tell you that gold shot through the roof on a day like this, but whispers about potential margin hikes pushed GLD to a lower open and seemed to keep the metal at bay. Even with the market tanking, GLD had a hard time ticking higher.

Technical Take

If you take a step back and look at the SPY chart on a daily and even weekly time frame, the obvious pattern that jumps out at you is a wide, but well-defined, bear flag. Previously, we noted the well-defined head and shoulders pattern that forecast the deep correction.

The only strategies that have worked, and provided limited risk, over the past month have been buying and selling extreme moves in both directions. Large gap downs on Monday and Tuesday had investors extremely bearishthe most bearish since September 2007which gave way to a steep short squeeze.

As weve seen before, that low-volume bounce/short squeeze was only transitory, as Ben Bernanke would put it. The oversold bounce we saw early in the week actually turned out to be a negative event for the bulls, because it allowed the market to work off its severely oversold condition and prime for another plunge.

After such a harsh move lower, which began around the time of the debt ceiling debate and S&P downgrade, it is natural for there to be some indecision in the indices. However, nobody would have expected the range to remain as wide as it has been. Resolution to this pattern will come at one point or another, and based in the in-bound move, there will be a powerful secondary move (more than likely to the downside). The lower end of the channel also lines up with the 200-week Moving Average, which will be another crucial technical level.

The measured move could take the S&P down to the 1,000 range if a worst-case type scenario plays out, which would involve a Greek debt default that triggered a domino effect in Europe that could likely trigger defaults in at least a few other PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) nations as well.

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/greatspeculations/files/2011/09/SP-bear-flag-1024x675.png

Technically, we are also seeing some clues that tell us that all is not well with Mr. Market. Nearly every sector is currently mired in a bearish technical formation; there are no rays of light. The one area of relative strength early in the week, is starting to look ready to break down as well.

One clue we look to first is high-beta tech. If the market is healthy under the hood, the leading high-beta tech stocks will usually hold up well. We saw some relative strength early in the week from the likes of Apple Inc. (AAPL), Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) and Baidu.com Inc. (BIDU), but none of them were able to withstand the force of todays drop. AAPL and BIDU in particular look to be forming wedge continuation patterns, which generally resolve to the downside.

During the formation of the head and shoulders pattern, for example, the Industrials (XLI) and the Homebuilders (XHB) started to break down first, which signaled to us that the rest of the market wasnt far behind.

When selling is isolated and weak sectors drag the market down, it can be considered a buying opportunity for strong stocks. When selling is more across-the-board, its a sign to get of the way.

The measured move of the head and shoulder played out almost to a T (as you can see on the chart). Technical patterns arent always perfect, but they provide a good roadmap. Another thing you have to understand about technical analysis too is that it is largely a self-fulfilling prophecy. Moves in the market often play out simply because a large group of traders and investors are reacting based on the same set of rules.

Before the break of the head and shoulders, you had the more mainstream media start talking about the scary head and shoulders top pattern, which got both Main St. and Wall St. bearish. Now, everyone in the industry is talking about this ominous bear flag pattern, which is likely to make its rounds in the more mainstream media this weekend (along with the news about Greece).

Final Word

While doomsday talk is rampant right nowbetween a domino effect of European sovereign debt defaults to 9/11 anniversary attacksas traders we never trade based on assumptions. The traders who are consistent and profitable over the long haul are the ones who, first and foremost, limit their risk. At the end of the day today, for example, there is enormous risk for both longs and shorts.

If Greece does default and/or there is some sort of attack on NYC/DC, the market is sure to open sharply lower on Monday. However, if one or both of those events do not occur, shorts would be in for a massive squeeze. After such a harsh down day like today, it is best to take any profits you may have generated and take a firm seat on the sidelines.

Even if you are not involved in the weekend trade, there will be tremendous opportunity over the next few weeks to take advantage of this historic market volatility. Great opportunity comes with great risk, so be sure to, more than ever, stick to your personal trading rules and dont make big bets you cant afford to pay off.

 

 

Unprecedented Monthly Volume Sell-Off Suggests Now's the Time to Take Shelter at Minyanville Kevin A. Tuttle Sep 12, 2011 ‘Do not concern yourself if the market goes up today, tomorrow, or a month from now. The risk of entering is not worth the reward.

Over the weekend I had the pleasure of speaking with a very prominent European money manager overseeing hundreds of billions about the "across-the-pond" financial crisis unwind and looming hazard of a potential domino-effect coming to fruition. Without rehashing the entire conversation, the consensus is not "if," its "when" will the developing pressure finally blow. He actually went so far as to say it could truly begin unraveling within the next few weeks considering the catalysts currently in play.

The intent of providing the conversation synopsis is not for sake of fear, but understanding the potential ramifications. About three years ago, in one of my firm's quarterly reports, we opined on a unique situation in regard to the GDP measurements of Global Nations. It stated the unprecedented growth statistics from the 56 nations tracked.
History is currently being made in the sense that all the globally tracked economic growth nations (56), every one 100%..., are showing expansion. This lead to my next comment If the economic cycle pendulum swings in both directions what would happen if the inverse occurred? Are 2011/2012 the years we are about to find out? Maybe thats somewhat extreme, but yet is it possible?

We at my firm do not pretend to be intelligent enough to figure out all the nuances, catalysts, causes and reasons why the markets could fall apart; we
ll leave it to the team of economists and officials to attempt to sort that out. What we do instead is try to determine when the storm is coming and how to take shelter, which brings me to my point: Now is the time. Take shelter! Do not concern yourself if the market goes up today, tomorrow or a month from now. Clarity is key! Would you sail your boat into rocky waters with a potential hurricane looming because of your love of sailing? Is the risk worth the reward? For some, maybe; but for most, probably not.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/LisaCatchJUNE2011/jo.jpg 

Since the "2011 Channel of Indecision" broke on August 4, the seas have picked up dramatically and have begun swallowing ships. The markets have never seen this type of monthly volume sell-off
47% above average (unprecedented), as seen in the monthly chart above. As Kenny Rogers put it so eloquently Know when to hold em and know when to fold em', know when to walk away, know when to run!

Editor's Note: Read more at Tuttle Asset Management.

 

 

What's the Long-Term Outlook for Stocks and The Economy? ETFguide   Simon Maierhofer, September 12, 2011, ‘The stock market's summer performance has been nothing but stunning. Seeing daily swings in excess of 4% has become as common as American fast food in China.

Sometimes it's helpful to step back and shift the focus from day-to-day changes to multi-decade trends. This kind of big picture evaluation shows whether events like this summer's meltdown are just a hiccup or confirmation of a long-term trend (change).

MORE THAN JUST A MULTI-DECADE FLUKE

Gradual changes are often so subtle that they are nearly invisible to the naked eye or novice observer. But, just because a change is gradual doesn't mean it's insignificant.

Let's take a look at the basic make up of the U.S. economy. A few decades ago, sweat-trenched U.S. manufacturing facilities were the most fertile, growth-producing environment on the planet. This growth was fueled by 'Made in America' products. The growth was organic and it was real.

The first red box in the chart below captures this period of powerful organic growth. It lasted from 1947 - 1966. During this period, GDP growth averaged 4.18%.

The second red box captures a period of growth fueled by low interest and financial engineering. During this period - from 1975 - 2000 - GDP growth averaged only 3.4%.

                                     https://www.etfguide.com//contributor/UserFiles/8/Image/Growth%20Periods%20Yahoo.gif

(The above chart was featured in the March 2011 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter)

The Only Original Dow Component, Not some Hot Tech Stock

General Electric (NYSE: GE - News), a company that prospered during both phases, aptly illustrates the difference between both periods.

Until the late 1960s, GE was known for manufacturing quality, American-made products like refrigerators, washing machines, stoves, light bulbs, and jet engines. GE manufactured real products, provided real jobs, and made real profits.

Starting in the 1980s GE changed its focus from blue collar manufacturing to white collar alchemy. GE ventured into television and high finance. GE's focus shifted from building quality products to financing purchases of competitor products. Ultimately, it went from manufacturing real products to building a financial house of cards.

In August 2000, GE traded as high as $60.5 a share. In 2009 it was as low as $5.73 - a 90% drop. Today, it's hovering around $15. As you ponder this change in valuation, keep in mind that GE is the only original Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI: ^DJI) component, not some hot today cold tomorrow tech stock.

A NEW TREND IS BORN ... AND KILLED

Financially engineered (artificial) profits appeared to be the best new thing since sliced bread. However, GDP growth since 2000 has dropped dramatically, now only 1.71%. The post-2007 meltdown shows that an economy cannot be built on the financial (NYSEArca: XLF - News) and banking (NYSEArca: KBE - News) sectors.

It also shows that an artificial bull market is much more receptive to huge corrections. We've had the 2000 tech bust (NYSEArca: XLK - News), the 2005 real estate (NYSEArca: IYR - News) debacle, the 2007/2008 deflation of the financial sector, and most recently the summer 2011 meltdown.

If you think financially engineered profits are bad, brace yourself for what lies ahead. The hopes for economic prosperity (perhaps even survival) rest on Facebook, Twitter, Groupon, LinkedIn, Netflix, and the like.

Social networking isn't a proven business model, yet Facebook has an estimated market cap larger than those of Boeing, Home Depot, Walt Disney, Dell, Hewlett Packard, Costco, or even Goldman Sachs.

Hewlett-Packard employs 325,000 people, Home Depot 300,000, Boeing 160,000. However, Facebook cuts pay checks to only about 1,000 lucky employees.  Welcome to the future of high corporate profit margins and even higher unemployment.

Groupon has an estimated value of $6-9 billion, but its recipe of success is to coax businesses into providing discounts of 50 - 90%. Groupon is a classic economic leach that benefits by sucking the profits out of its client base and teaching its subscribers to buy only at discount prices. Welcome to a future of shrinking small business profits.

THE STOCK MARKET AGREES

The big picture fundamental outlook appears less than confidence inspiring. What about the big picture technical outlook?

The chart below (although small in size due to upload limitations) was featured in the March ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter and provides a big picture technical forecast. In fact, it's about as 'big picture' as it gets.

                    https://www.etfguide.com//contributor/UserFiles/8/Image/yahoo%20M%20pattern.gif  

What you see is a giant bearish M pattern, it could even be considered a head and shoulders pattern. The neckline is formed by the 2002 and 2009 lows.

To determine an upside price target, we drew a parallel channel that connects the 2002 and 2009 lows with the 2000 high. The April 3 ETF Profit Strategy update said the following about this trend channel and other resistance levels:

'For the month of April this trend line will traverse through 1,377. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement is at 1,381.5. There is a fairly strong Fibonacci projection resistance at 1,369. In terms of resistance levels, the 1,369 - 1,382 range is a strong candidate for a reversal of potentially historic proportions.'

The S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) peaked on May 2 at 1,370.58 and has since lost as much as 269 points or 19%. The Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) has held up slightly better, but no matter how you slice it, the stock market has given up more than a year's worth of gains within a matter of weeks. The VIX (Chicago Options: ^VIX) spiked to the highest level in over a year.

In addition, all major U.S. indexes broke below a trend line that has provided support on nine different occasions since the March 2009 lows.

This doesn't prevent rallies. In fact, based on our research, we should see a sizeable rally soon. However, odds favor that the stock market's trend has changed from up to down…’

 

 

[video] Trader: Waiting for Treasury Bubble to Burst at TheStreet.com

 

Preparing for a Credit Crisis at Minyanville  John Mauldin’ “I am sure the Euro will oblige us to introduce a new set of economic policy instruments. It is politically impossible to propose that now. But some day there will be a crisis and new instruments will be created.”-- Romano Prodi, EU Commission President, December 2001

Prodi and the other leaders who forged the euro … knew a crisis would develop, as Milton Friedman and many others had predicted. They accepted that as the price of European unity. But now the payment is coming due, and it is far larger than they probably thought…

The Consequences of Austerity

The markets are pricing in an almost 100% certainty of a Greek default (OK, actually 91%), and the rumors in trading circles of a default this weekend by Greece are rampant. Bloomberg (and everyone else) reported that Germany is making contingency plans for the default. Of course, Greece has issued three denials today that I can count. I am reminded of that splendid quote from the British ’80s sitcom, Yes, Prime Minister: “Never believe anything until it’s been officially denied.”

Germany is assuming a 50% loss for their banks and insurance companies. Sean Egan (head of very reliable bond-analyst firm Egan-Jones) thinks the ultimate haircut will be closer to 90%. And that is just for Greece. More on the contagion factor below.

“The existence of a ‘Plan B’ underscores German concerns that Greece’s failure to stick to budget-cutting targets threatens European efforts to tame the debt crisis rattling the euro. German lawmakers stepped up their criticism of Greece this week, threatening to withhold aid unless it meets the terms of its austerity package, after an international mission to Athens suspended its report on the country’s progress.

“ ‘Greece is “on a knife’s edge,”’ German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told lawmakers at a closed-door meeting in Berlin on Sept. 7, a report in parliament’s bulletin showed yesterday. If the government can’t meet the aid terms, ‘it’s up to Greece to figure out how to get financing without the euro zone’s help,’ he later said in a speech to parliament.

“Schaeuble travelled to a meeting of central bankers and finance ministers from the Group of Seven nations in Marseille, France, today as they face calls to boost growth amid increasing threats from Europe’s debt crisis and a slowing global recovery.” (Bloomberg)


(There is an over/under betting pool in Europe on whether Schaeuble remains as Finance Minister much longer after this weekend’s G-7 meeting, given his clear disagreement with Angela Merkel. I think I take the under. Merkel is tough. Or maybe he decides to play nice. His press doesn’t make him sound like that type, though. They are playing high-level hardball in Germany.)

Anyone reading my letter for the last three years cannot be surprised that Greece will default. It is elementary school arithmetic. The Greek debt-to-GDP is currently at 140%. It will be close to 180% by year’s end (assuming someone gives them the money). The deficit is north of 15%. They simply cannot afford to make the interest payments. True market (not Eurozone-subsidized) interest rates on Greek short-term debt are close to 100%, as I read the press. Their long-term debt simply cannot be refinanced without Eurozone bailouts…

[Quick sidebar: If (when) the US goes into recession [We’re already in a recession!], have you thought about what the result will be? A recession of course means lower GDP, which will mean higher unemployment. That will increase costs due to increased unemployment and other government aid, and of course lower revenues as tax receipts (revenues) go down. Given the projections and path we are currently on, that means even higher deficits than we have now. If President Obama has his plan enacted, and if we go into a recession, we will see record-level deficits. Certainly over $1.5 trillion, and depending on the level of the recession, we could scare $2 trillion. Think the Tea Party will like that? Governments have less control than they think over these things. Ask Greece or any other country in a debt crisis how well they predicted their budgets.]

The Greeks were off by over 25%. And they are being asked to further cut their deficit by 4% or so every year for the next 3-4 years. That guarantees a full-blown depression. And it also means lower revenues and higher deficits, even at the reduced budget levels, which means they get further away from their goal, no matter how fast they run. They are now in a debt death spiral. There is no way out, short of Europe simply bailing them out for nothing, which is not likely.

Europe is going to deal with this Greek crisis. The problem is that this is the beginning of a string of crises and not the end. They do not appear, at least in public, to want to deal with the systemic problem of too much debt in all the peripheral countries…

Euro Breakup – The Consequences

The Euro Should Not Exist (Like This)

Under the current structure and with the current membership, the Euro does not work. Either the current structure will have to change, or the current membership will have to change.

Fiscal Confederation, Not Break-Up

Our base case with an overwhelming probability is that the Euro moves slowly (and painfully) towards some kind of fiscal integration. The risk case, of break-up, is considerably more costly and close to zero probability. Countries cannot be expelled, but sovereign states could choose to secede. However, popular discussion of the break-up option considerably underestimates the consequences of such a move.

The Economic Cost (Part 1)

The cost of a weak country leaving the Euro is significant. Consequences include sovereign default, corporate default, collapse of the banking system and collapse of international trade. There is little prospect of devaluation offering much assistance. We estimate that a weak Euro country leaving the Euro would incur a cost of around 9,500 to 11,500 per person in the exiting country during the first year. That cost would then probably amount to 3,000 to 4,000 per person per year over subsequent years. That equates to a range of 40% to 50% of GDP in the first year.

The Economic Cost (Part 2)

Were a stronger country such as Germany to leave the Euro, the consequences would include corporate default, recapitalization of the banking system and collapse of international trade. If Germany were to leave, we believe the cost to be around 6,000 to 8,000 for every German adult and child in the first year, and a range of 3,500 to 4,500 per person per year thereafter. That is the equivalent of 20% to 25% of GDP in the first year. In comparison, the cost of bailing out Greece, Ireland and Portugal entirely in the wake of the default of those countries would be a little over 1,000 per person, in a single hit.

The Political Cost

The economic cost is, in many ways, the least of the concerns investors should have about a break-up. Fragmentation of the Euro would incur political costs. Europes soft power influence internationally would cease (as the concept of Europe as an integrated polity becomes meaningless). It is also worth observing that almost no modern fiat currency monetary unions have broken up without some form of authoritarian or military government, or civil war.

Welcome to the Hotel California

Welcome to the Hotel California
Such a lovely place
Such a lovely face
They livin
it up at the Hotel California
What a nice surprise, bring your alibis

Last thing I remember, I was running for the door
I had to find the passage back to the place I was before
Relax, said the night man, We are programmed to receive.
You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave!

-- The Eagles, 1977

You can disagree with the UBS analysis in various particulars, but what it shows is that there is no free lunch. It is not a matter of pain or no pain, but of how much pain and how is it shared. And to make it more difficult, breaking up may cost more than to stay and suffer, for both weak and strong countries. There are no easy choices, no simple answers. Like the Hotel California, you can check in but you can
t leave! There are simply no provisions for doing so, or even for expelling a member.

The costs of leaving for Greece would be horrendous. But then so are the costs of staying. Choose wisely. Quoting again from the UBS report:

“… the only way for a country to leave the EMU in a legal manner is to negotiate an amendment of the treaty that creates an opt-out clause. Having negotiated the right to exit, the Member State could then, and only then, exercise its newly granted right. While this superficially seems a viable exit process, there are in fact some major obstacles.

Negotiating an exit is likely to take an extended period of time. Bear in mind the exiting country is not negotiating with the Euro area, but with the entire European Union. All of the legislation and treaties governing the Euro are European Union treaties (and, indeed, form the constitution of the European Union). Several of the 27 countries that make up the European Union require referenda to be held on treaty changes, and several others may choose to hold a referendum. While enduring the protracted process of negotiation, which may be vetoed by any single government or electorate, the potential secessionist will experience most or all of the problems we highlight in the next section (bank runs, sovereign default, corporate default, and what may be euphemistically termed civil unrest).

Leaving abruptly would result in a lengthy bank holiday and massive lawsuits and require the willingness to simply thumb your nose in the face of any European court, as contracts of all sorts would have to be voided. The Greek government would have to conveniently pass a law that would require all Greek businesses to pay back euro contracts in the new drachma, giving cover to their businesses, who simply could not find the euros to repay. But then, what about business going forward?

Medical supplies? Food?
The basics? You have to find hard currencies for what you dont produce in the country. Greece is not energy self-sufficient, importing more than 70% of its energy needs. They have a massive trade deficit, which would almost disappear, as who outside of Greece would want the new drachma? Banking? Parts for boats and business equipment? The list goes on and on. Commerce would slump dramatically, transportation would suffer, and unemployment would skyrocket.

If Germany were to leave, its export-driven economy would be hit very hard. It is likely that the
new mark would appreciate in value, much like the Swiss Franc, making exports from Germany even more costly. Not to mention potential trade barriers and the serious (and probably lengthy) recession that many of their export and remaining Eurozone trade partners would be thrown into. And German banks, which have loaned money in euros, would have depreciating assets and would need massive government support. (Just as they do now!)..

Ray Dalio and his brilliant economics team at Bridgewater have done a series of reports on a plan for Europe. Basically, it involves deciding which institutions must be saved (and at what cost) and letting the rest simply go their own way. If they are bankrupt, then so be it. Use the capital of Europe to save the important institutions (not shareholders or bondholders). Will they do it? Maybe.

The extraordinarily insightful and brilliant John Hussman recently wrote on a similar theme. He is a must-read for me. Quoting:

The global economy is at a crossroad that demands a decision whom will our leaders defend? One choice is to defend bondholders existing owners of mismanaged banks, unserviceable peripheral European debt, and lenders who misallocated capital by reaching for yield and fees by making mortgage loans to anyone with a pulse. Defending bondholders will require forced austerity in government spending of already depressed economies, continued monetary distortions, and the use of public funds to recapitalize poor stewards of capital. It will do nothing for job creation, foreclosure reduction, or economic recovery.

The alternative is to defend the public by focusing on the reduction of unserviceable debt burdens by restructuring mortgages and peripheral sovereign debt, recognizing that most financial institutions have more than enough shareholder capital and debt to their own bondholders to absorb losses without hurting customers or counterparties but also recognizing that properly restructuring debt will wipe out many existing holders of mismanaged financials and will require a transfer of ownership and recapitalization by better stewards. That alternative also requires fiscal policy that couples the willingness to accept larger deficits in the near term with significant changes in the trajectory of long-term spending.

In game theory, there is a concept known as Nash equilibrium (following the work of John Nash). The key feature is that the strategy of each player is optimal, given the strategy chosen by the other players. For example, I drive on the right / you drive on the right is a Nash equilibrium, and so is I drive on the left / you drive on the left. Other choices are fatal.

Presently, the global economy is in a low-level Nash equilibrium where consumers are reluctant to spend because corporations are reluctant to hire; while corporations are reluctant to hire because consumers are reluctant to spend. Unfortunately, simply offering consumers some tax relief, or trying to create hiring incentives in a vacuum, will not change this equilibrium because it does not address the underlying problem. Consumers are reluctant to spend because they continue to be overburdened by debt, with a significant proportion of mortgages underwater, fiscal policy that leans toward austerity, and monetary policy that distorts financial markets in a way that encourages further misallocation of capital while at the same time starving savers of any interest earnings at all.

We cannot simply shift to a high-level equilibrium (consumers spend because employers hire, employers hire because consumers spend) until the balance sheet problem is addressed. This requires debt restructuring and mortgage restructuring. While there are certainly strategies (such as property appreciation rights) that can coordinate restructuring without public subsidies, large-scale restructuring will not be painless, and may result in market turbulence and self-serving cries from the financial sector about global financial meltdown. But keep in mind that the global equity markets can lose $4-8 trillion of market value during a normal bear market. To believe that bondholders simply cannot be allowed to sustain losses is an absurdity. Debt restructuring is the best remaining option to treat a spreading cancer. Other choices are fatal.

(Click here for the rest of the article.)

You think the worlds central banks and main institutions are not worried? They are pulling back from bank debt in Europe, as are US money-market funds. (Note: I would check and see what your money-market funds are holding how much European bank debt and to whom? While they are reportedly reducing their exposure, there is some $1.2 trillion still in euro-area institutions that have PIIGS exposure.)

Look at the following graph from the St. Louis Fed. It is the amount of deposits at the US Fed from foreign official and international accounts, at rates that are next to nothing. It is higher now than in 2008. What do they know that you don’t?

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/LisaCatchJUNE2011/fred1.jpg

The Slow March to Recession in the US..

John Hussman, in the same report, offers the chart below, which is a variant on themes I have highlighted in past issues, but with his own personal twist. It is a combination of four Fed indices and four ISM reports. And it has been reliable as a predictor of recessions – one of which it strongly suggests we are either in or heading into.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/LisaCatchJUNE2011/fred2.jpg

And recent revisions to economic data suggest that companies are going to have even more trouble making those powerhouse earnings that are being estimated. As Albert Edwards of Societe Generale reports this week:

“… at the start of 2011, productivity trends took a remarkable turn for the worse especially compared to what was initially reported. An initial estimate that Q1 productivity grew by 1.8% was transformed to show a decline of 0.6%. A slight 0.7% rise in Q1 ULC (unit labor costs) was transformed to show a staggering surge of 4.8%! In addition to that 4.8% rise, ULC rose a further 2.2% in Q2. But the news gets even worse Last week the BLS revised the ULC rise in Q2 up from 2.2% to 3.3% QoQ. US non-farm business unit labor costs are now rising by 2% yoy. That is very bad news for profits. Bad news for equities. And because the pace of ULC is a key driver of inflation (upwards in this instance), it is bad news for an increasingly criticized and divided Fed.

Preparing for a Credit Crisis

There is so much that could push us into another 2008 Lehman-type credit crisis..

I did an interview with good friends David Galland and Doug Casey of Casey Research yesterday. They are decidedly more bearish than I am, so wanted an optimist to sit on their panel. But they forced me to admit that some of my optimism depends on the probability of US political leaders doing the right thing. ..

But whether you want to make it 50-50 to 70-30 or (pick a number), there is a reasonable prospect of another credit crisis. So what should you do?

First, think back to 2008. Were you liquid enough? Did you have enough cash? If not, then think about raising that cash now. When the crisis hits, you have to sell what you can for what you can get, not what you want for reasonable prices
…’

 

 

Don't Trust Wall Street and this Market  ETFguide  [ I couldn’t say this better myself! Take heed! My sentiments exactly, except far worse is in store! ] Simon Maierhofer, September 13, 2011, ‘The chicken is clueless about the egg's fate. Will it hatch or become an omelet?

Wall Street is clueless about their forecasts, will they 'hatch' or become egg on their face? Who cares; as long as it sounds good at the time, Wall Street's opinions are promoted by the media. Is this a haphazard approach? Judge for yourself.

The most recent Wall Street blunder was the over emphasis on positive earnings in April. Here are some of the headlines Wall Street and the financial media featured late April 2011:

Morgan Stanley shares rise as earnings beat estimates

Stocks, commodities rise as earnings top estimates

Leading U.S. indicators, consumer confidence gain as fuel costs discounted

World revs up U.S. profits

The Global economy is improving

The S&P breaks out

The Dow's going to 20,000

Sales growth the big surprise on Wall Street

Buffett says odds of another U.S. banking crisis low

Equities finally seeing light on the economy

Stocks find sea of tranquility

Flawed Reasoning

The chart below, featured in the September 2010 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter, reveals the flawed reasoning behind Wall Street's expectations. It plots Earnings per Share (EPS) against GDP and U-6 unemployment numbers.

                https://www.etfguide.com//contributor/UserFiles/8/Image/EPS%20Growth%20Yahoo.gif

Notice how earnings for Q1, Q2, and Q3 2011 were supposed to reach a new all-time high. There were at least four reasons why record high EPS estimates were not long-term bullish:

1) GDP was contracting, U-6 (and every other measure of unemployment) did not signal a recovery. Every spike in EPS would be temporary and unsustainable.

2) EPS estimates are just a projection and are about as valuable as an un-hatched egg.

3) The last time EPS reached an all-time high was in Q2 2007. We all know what happened thereafter.

4) EPS or P/E ratios can be distorted via financial trickery. Financials (NYSEArca: XLF - News) and banks (NYSEArca: KBE - News) took advantage of this when accounting rule FASB 157 was changed on April 2, 2009. This allowed banks to hide trillions of dollars of unrealized mortgage losses in an accounting loophole that doesn't affect their income statement and earnings. Thus some of banks' losses were included in earnings numbers.

The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter's conclusion was simple and straight to the point: 'Buying at current prices with the expectation of long-term gains is almost certain to deliver despair and tears.'

Proceed With Caution

P/E ratios or EPS aren't a short-term timing tool and didn't prevent stocks from rallying since the above analysis was featured in the September ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter.

Nevertheless, a major market top was expected. The April 3 ETF Profit Strategy update put it succinctly this way: 'In terms of resistance levels, the 1,369 - 1,382 range is a strong candidate for a reversal of potentially historic proportions. Bullish bets should be watched very carefully, especially once stocks move above 1,356.'

The Summer 2011 meltdown erased all gains going back as far as December 2009. Yes, over 18 months of gains were eliminated within a matter of weeks.

Financial Serial Offender

If Wall Street was subject to the 'three strikes you're out' rule, there wouldn't be any financial offices in New York. By now it's common knowledge that Wall Street was overly optimistic in 2007 - right before the financial collapse - and overly pessimistic at the March 2009 lows - the beginning of a 100% + rally for the major indexes a la S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC).

More recent financial offenses include Wall Street's ill-advised fascination with silver in late April. On April 27 the Wall Street Journal ran a front-page article entitled 'Silver rush spreads to stock market.' The commentary read as follows: 'The metals are increasingly considered attractive as a permanent store of value that doesn't diminish like paper currencies.'…’

 

 

Congress budget agency warns panel of economic ills

 

Nearly 1 in 6 Americans in poverty, Census says

 

Growth Stocks Look Pricey. Favor Free Cash Firms with glowing growth projections have gotten expensive.

 

Cisco cuts long-term sales growth forecast [ And just when I was about to say that american technology is horrific, overrated but leading the charge higher on wall street because sell the sizzle works better with tech since most dont understand it. Actually, american tech at most is different color hula hoops! ]

 

International alarm over euro zone crisis grows

 

Why Can't Wall Street Be Honest With The Public?at Forbes [ Lets not be naïve here If the public knew even half of the truth, theyd be seeking to hang wall street from the yardarms, drawn and quartered they would be, etc.. Yes, hung, drawn and quartered. If caught while yachting on their yachts on taxpayer dime, theyd be keelhauled. There is really no limit to the well placed, well deserved antipathy for the frauds on wall street who should be prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. ]   The big banksled by Bank of Americaare a mess, and the uncertainty weighing on them hurts investors and the economy as a whole. As investors keep buying bank stocks in their retirement accounts and taxpayers continue to bail them out, a fundamental question remains: why cant banks tell the truth?

In 2008, we learnedfar too latethat every major Wall Street firm was leveraged 30-to-1 and gambling with shareholders money in search of a big payoff in speculative trading profits.

As we know, this has ruined countless investors and brought our economy to its knees. On Monday morning, the news got worse, as Bank of America announced it would eliminate 30,000 jobs over the next few years. That announcement came after CEO Brian Moynihan told a crowd of institutional investors that the bank wanted to eliminate $5 billion in annual costs by the end of 2013.

Now, according to recently released documents from the Federal Reservedocuments the banks wanted desperately to keep secret and obtained only after years of litigationwe have learned that virtually every major bank borrowed tens of billions of dollars from the Fed to stay afloat in 2008 and 2009. Among the biggest borrowers was Citigroup, which took in north of $100 billion during this time. Of course, Citi never bothered to disclose this borrowing binge until now. Two other big borrowers, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase, were also among the 17 lenders sued by the Federal Housing Finance Authority for allegedly misleading Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac about residential mortgagebacked securities.

Why cant banks level with us? How do their executives mislead investors with impunity?

Heres an idea. Why dont the banks post on their websites a list of ALL the current litigation they face, links to relevant court documents, and the status of the pending cases? After all, they owe their existence to the American taxpayer and should bend over backwards to keep the public informed.

If banks cared about Mr. and Mrs. Public, they would want to put that information directly in front of them, just as the Monday morning sports section prints updates, standings and statistics regarding all the major sports teams.

But heres the catch: the banks DONT care about the public. Theyd rather let the public hang than tell the truth about their legal woes. And thats the real shame here. Unless we have an accurate picture of the banks financial health, our economy, along with Mr. and Mrs. Public, is going nowhere.

 

Venture capital veteran Perkins sees danger ahead

 

Minyanville's T3 Daily Recap: German Finance Minister Says Greece Can Solve Its Own Problems   Stocks closed in the black Tuesday but struggled to hold onto gains at the end of the day. When the market reaches oversold levels like we saw Monday morning, it is typical to see oversold bounces that turn into short squeezes. We have seen that over the past two days, but with short interest at its highest point since late 2007, there are still some shorts out there to squeeze. The question is whether the bad news from Europe will hold off long enough for the bulls to maintain any control. Greece avoided default over the weekend, but many view it as inevitable, and the rhetoric remained sharp today. Late in the afternoon a German Finance Minister basically said that Greece 'can solve its own problems', representing an opinion now that is the majority among the German people. In the end, further bailouts will be up to Germany, so those comments cannot be seen as a positive for the markets…’

 

Wall St. Cheat Sheet: Italy Scares Markets, American Jobs Act in FocusWall St. Cheat Sheet September 13, 2011, ‘ The European economy is back in the spotlight after a report cast doubt on the possibility of China buying a significant amount of Italian debt in order to buoy the sinking economy.  The Euro got crushed and Italian borrowing costs rose today at a 6.5 billion-euro bond auction in which the Rome-based Treasury sold 3.9 billion euros of new benchmark five-year bonds with a 5.6% yield, up from the 4.93% yield on similar-maturity securities sold on July 14. Hot Feature: Italy has 6 Dangerous Problems Which Could Smack the European Economy. President Obama’s American Jobs Act is now the hot debate in Washington. The proposed legislation would cap the amount of interest from municipal bonds that top earners can exclude from their taxable income. The move would decrease the tax break for municipal-bond interest to 28% for couples earning more than $250,000 a year. For top earners, such tax-exempt interest is currently worth 35% in the top tax bracket, as that’s the amount they would otherwise have to pay on their income. Don’t Miss: These Wall Street Firms are About to Start Firing People Like Crazy!

 

These Wall Street Firms are About to Start Firing People Like Crazy By Business Insider September 04 2011 ( archived file )

 

Same Alan Greenspan Who Warned Against Budget Surplus Now Warns About Deficit  [ Yeah! One of the many symptoms of senile dementia, with a strong measure of incompetence to boot (greenspun has a long history of incompetent missteps which through self-promotion, quid pro quos, and a general ubiquity of pervasive ignorance, has gone unscrutinized and unreported. Hes really been that bad!) ]  Mark Gongloff Look whos still talking: The Honorable Dr. Sir Alan Greenspan, formerly of the Committee to Ruin Save the World, now ringing his cowbell of dire warning about the horrible horrors of the federal budget deficit.

Mr. Greenspan is today speaking before a Senate Finance subcommittee on tax policy and the deficit.

This is the same Alan Greenspan, you may recall, who went before Congress in 2001 and rang his cowbell about the horrible horrors of having too much federal budget surplus lying around, where Congress would only be tempted to spend it all on comic books and bubble gum, or something:

At zero debt, the continuing unified budget surpluses now projected under current law imply a major accumulation of private assets by the federal government. Such an accumulation would make the federal government a significant factor in our nations capital markets and would risk significant distortion in the allocation of capital to its most productive uses. Such a distortion could be quite costly, as it is our extraordinarily effective allocation process that has enabled such impressive increases in productivity and standards of living despite a relatively low domestic saving rate.

Remember, this is the same extraordinarily effective allocation process that brought you the tech-stock and housing bubbles, both on Mr. Greenspans watch, inside the space of a decade.

But never mind that! What to do with all of this spare cash that could cause so much trouble to our precious allocation processes? Mr. Greenspan had a suggestion:

In general, for reasons I have testified to previously, if long-term fiscal stability is the criterion, it is far better, in my judgment, that the surpluses be lowered by tax reductions than by spending increases.

As luck would have it, then-President Bush had plans for some ginormous tax cuts, plans Congress passed with Mr. Greenspans tacit approval. Shortly thereafter the world blew up for approximately one decade (and counting), we embarked on two never-ending wars, and there went all of our surplus cash and then some.

Whats Mr. Greenspan got to say now? Kristina Peterson reports:

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned U.S. lawmakers Tuesday that underestimating a federal budget crisis could be devastating to financial markets and urged Congress to eliminate unnecessary tax breaks.

 


ETF Redemptions Highest Since 2008: Report ETF Trends 

 

Italian Borrowing Costs Jump at $8.8B Auction Sep 13th, 2011  News (Bloomberg) Italian borrowing costs jumped at a 6.5 billion-euro ($8.8 billion) bond auction as contagion from Europes debt crisis leaves investors shunning the regions most-indebted nations. The Rome-based Treasury sold 3.9 billion euros of a new benchmark five-year bond to yield 5.6 percent, up from 4.93 percent when similar-maturity securities were sold on July 14. Demand was 1.28 times the amount offered, down from 1.93 times at the last sale.[source]

 


RBC Slashes FedEx Forecast On Shaky Economic Outlook

 

Obama proposes tax hikes to pay for jobs bill AFP | Obama signaled he would pay for his $447 billion dollar jobs plan by raising taxes on the rich and energy corporations.


 

 

Massive default is best way to fix the economy MarketWatch | We can never move forward unless we eliminate the debt


 

The 2nd Edge Of Modern Financial Repression: Manipulating Inflation Indexes To Steal From Retirees & Public Workers Gold Seek | Revealing how your retirement funds are systematically looted by the banking cartel and your federal government

 

Tim Geithner Tells Germany It Has To Sacrifice More Taxpayer Money To Protect The Status Quo Zero Hedge | Geithner has a slightly different message to the locals on how to run their failed monetary union.


 

20 Signs Of Imminent Financial Collapse In Europe The Economic Collapse


 

Greek Crash May Trigger Currency Death Spiral Wealth Cycles | As the U.S. collectively commemorated the 10th anniversary of 9-11, folks in Europe braced for a different type of calamity.


 

German Court Opens Door to Über-Empire and Über-Collapse Euro Pacific Capital | In the early days of September, financial markets worldwide were nervous.

 

(9-13-11) Dow  11,106  +45   Nasdaq  2,532  +37   S&P 500  1,172  +10  [CLOSE- OIL $89.95 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $3.65  (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS  $3.94 REG./ $4.04 MID-GRADE/$4.14 PREM./ $4.22  DIESELL) /  GOLD $1,833  (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $41.01 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,810 (+56% for year 2009)  Metal News for the Day  / DOLLAR= .73 EURO, 76 YEN, .63 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go LOWER)/  Interest Rates:   http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield     10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.00%      AP Business Highlights       ...Yahoo Market Update...         T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap Stocks / Bonds / Currencies -  Domestic / International           This Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold and Hope       The bull market that never was/were  beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold                  WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER       Must Read Economic / Financial Data        This Depression is just beginning     The coming depression  thecomingdepression.net           The Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think       Sliding Back Into the Great Depression  ABSOLUTELY, ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! 

 

 

The Fed’s shadow TARP News by Sen. Jim DeMint August 31 (Politico) — ‘In the run-up to the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve fueled the housing bubble with its easy money policy. Now, we know that after the crisis struck, the Fed secretly propped up elite bankers all the way from Wall Street to Brussels to the Central Bank of Libya.A Bloomberg news investigation found that while the Treasury Department was pumping $700 billion into banks under the Troubled Asset Relief Program, the Fed was covertly operating its own bailout program – the biggest in American history. The Fed’s Shadow TARP issued $1.2 trillion in loans to domestic and foreign banks from 2007 to 2010, far more than Congress authorized Treasury to spend under TARP.…Congress eventually approved a partial audit that showed the Fed extended an incredible $16 trillion – more than the entire U.S. economy – in aggregate lending authority to foreign and domestic banks from the end of 2007 to the middle of 2010…After the second round of quantitative easing was announced, Chinese Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said America “does not recognize, as a country that issues one of the world’s major reserve currencies, its obligation to stabilize capital markets.”German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble was more blunt, calling the Fed “clueless.” [source]’

Global Recession Likely, Depression Possible: Economist  Aug 31st, 2011 by News (CNBC) Global recession in 2012 is 65 to 75 percent certain and could deteriorate into a lengthy depression, Roger Nightingale, economist and strategist at RDN Associates, told CNBC.The peak rate of growth for the worlds economy occurred more than 12 months ago and it carries on going down, Nightingale said. We are probably going into negative territory around spring of next year; it is not for certain, but that is the most likely scenario. I would say the recession is 65 percent, 75 percent certain.The economist warned that should recession kick in, the global economy might be too weak to generate any GDP growth for years, or even decades.

Morning Snapshot News August 31 (USAGOLD) — ‘Gold is modestly lower this morning, but still generally well bid amid rising expectations that the Fed is preparing to ease once again. The St. Louis Fed’s Bullard was hinted in the Japanese press that the Fed may indeed embark on QE3, depending on upcoming data. Bullard added a caveat, saying that it should be confirmed that inflation has eased first. These comments come on the heals of very dovish Fedspeak by Chicago Fed’s Evans on Tuesday.

Todays weaker that expected ADP employment index may further temper expectations for Fridays August nonfarm payrolls report. Consensus is running around +93k, following the +117k print for Jul. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 9.1%.

US ADP employment index rose 91k in Aug, below market expectations of 100k, vs negative revised 109k in Jul.
Canada Q2 GDP -0.4%, below market expectations of +0.1%, vs +3.6% in Q1. GDP +0.2% in Jun, vs -0.3% in May.
UK GfK consumer confidence fell to -31 in Aug, above market expectations of -33, vs -30 in Jul.
Italy CPI EU Harmonized (prelim) rose to 2.2% y/y in Aug; +0.3% m/m.
Italy PPI rose to 4.7% y/y in Jul, vs 4.3% in Jun; +0.3% m/m.
German retail sales unch m/m in Jul, better than market expectations of -2.0%, vs big downward revision to 4.5% in Jun; -1.6% y/y.
German unemployment rate unchanged at 7.0% (sa) in Aug, in-line with expectations.
Eurozone unemployment rate unchanged in Jul at 10.0%, above market expectations, vs upward revised 10.0% in Jun.
South Korea industrial production +3.8% y/y in Jul, vs 6.5% in Jun.
Japan industrial production (prelim) +0.6% m/m (sa) in Jul, well below market expectations, vs 3.8% in Jun.
Japan Markit/JMMA PMI falls to 51.9 in Aug, vs 52.1 in Jul.
Japan construction orders +5.7% y/y in Jul, vs +6.0% in Jun.

 

 

25 Signs That The Financial World Is About To Hit The Big Red Panic Button The Economic Collapse | Most of the worst financial panics in history have happened in the fall.  Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Most of the worst financial panics in history have happened in the fall.  Just recall what happened in 1929, 1987 and 2008.  Well, September 2011 is about to begin and there are all kinds of signs that the financial world is about to hit the big red panic button.  Wave after wave of bad economic news has come out of the United States recently, and Europe is embroiled in an absolutely unprecedented debt crisis.  At this point there is a very real possibility that the euro may not even survive.  So what is causing all of this?  Well, over the last couple of decades a gigantic debt bubble has fueled a tremendous amount of fake prosperity in the western world.  But for a debt bubble to keep going, the total amount of debt has to keep expanding at an ever increasing pace.  Unfortunately for the global economy, sources of credit are starting to dry up.  That is why you hear terms like credit crisis and credit crunch thrown around so much these days.  Without enough credit to feed the monster, the debt bubble is going to burst.  At this point, virtually the entire global economy runs on credit, so when this debt bubble bursts things could get really, really messy.

Nations and financial institutions would never get into debt trouble if they could always borrow as much money as they wanted at extremely low interest rates.  But what has happened is that lending sources are balking at continuing to lend cheap money to nations and financial institutions that are already up to their eyeballs in debt.

For example, the yield on 2 year Greek bonds is now over 40 percent.  Investors dont trust the Greek government and they are demanding a huge return in order to lend them more money.

Throughout the financial world right now there is a lot of fear.  Lending conditions have gotten very tight.  Financial institutions are not eager to lend money to each other or to anyone else.  This credit crunch is going to slow down the economy.  Just remember what happened back in 2008.  When easy credit stops flowing, the dominoes can start falling very quickly.

 

Sadly, this is a cycle that can feed into itself.  When credit is tight, the economy slows down and more businesses fail.  That causes financial institutions to want to tighten up things even more in order to avoid the bad credit risks.  Less economic activity means less tax revenue for governments.  Less tax revenue means larger budget deficits and increased borrowing by governments.    But when government debt gets really high that can cause huge economic problems like we are witnessing in Greece right now.  The cycle of tighter credit and a slowing economy can go on and on and on.

I spend a lot of time talking about problems with the U.S. economy, but the truth is that the rest of the world is dealing with massive problems as well right now.  As bad as things are in the U.S., the reality is that Europe looks like it may be ground zero for the next great financial crisis.

At this point the EU essentially has three choices.  It can choose much deeper economic integration (which would mean a huge loss of sovereignty), it can choose to keep the status quo going for as long as possible by providing the PIIGS with gigantic bailouts, or it can choose to end of the euro and return to individual national currencies.

Any of those choices would be very messy.  At this point there is not much political will for much deeper economic integration, so the last two alternatives appear increasingly likely.

In any event, global financial markets are paralyzed by fear right now.  Nobody knows what is going to happen next, but many now fear that whatever does come next will not be good.

The following are 25 signs that the financial world is about to hit the big red panic button.

#1 According to a new study just released by Merrill Lynch, the U.S. economy has an 80% chance of going into another recession.

#2 Will Bank of America be the next Lehman Brothers?  Shares of Bank of America have fallen more than 40% over the past couple of months.  Even though Warren Buffet recently stepped in with 5 billion dollars, the reality is that the problems for Bank of America are far from over.  In fact, one analyst is projecting that Bank of America is going to need to raise 40 or 50 billion dollars in new capital.

#3 European bank stocks have gotten absolutely hammered in recent weeks.

#4 So far, major international banks have announced layoffs of more than 60,000 workers, and more layoff announcements are expected this fall.  A recent article in the New York Times detailed some of the carnage.

A new wave of layoffs is emblematic of this shift as nearly every major bank undertakes a cost-cutting initiative, some with names like Project Compass. UBS has announced 3,500 layoffs, 5 percent of its staff, and Citigroup is quietly cutting dozens of traders. Bank of America could cut as many as 10,000 jobs, or 3.5 percent of its work force. ABN Amro, Barclays, Bank of New York Mellon, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, Lloyds, State Street and Wells Fargo have in recent months all announced plans to cut jobs tens of thousands all told.

#5 Credit markets are really drying up.  Do you remember what happened in 2008 when that happened?  Many are now warning that we are getting very close to a repeat of that.

#6 The Conference Board has announced that the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index fell from 59.2 in July to 44.5 in August.  That is the lowest reading that we have seen since the last recession ended.

#7 The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has fallen by almost 20 points over the last three months.  This index is now the lowest it has beenin 30 years.

#8 The Philadelphia Feds latest survey of regional manufacturing activity was absolutely nightmarish.

The surveys broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased from a slightly positive reading of 3.2 in July to -30.7 in August. The index is now at its lowest level since March 2009

#9 According to Bloomberg, since World War II almost every time that the year over year change in real GDP has fallen below 2% the U.S. economy has fallen into a recession.

Since 1948, every time the four-quarter change has fallen below 2 percent, the economy has entered a recession. Its hard to argue against an indicator with such a long history of accuracy.

#10 Economic sentiment is falling in Europe as well.  The following is from a recent Reuters article.

A monthly European Commission survey showed economic sentiment in the 17 countries using the euro, a good indication of future economic activity, fell to 98.3 in August from a revised 103 in July with optimism declining in all sectors.

#11 The yield on 2 year Greek bonds is now an astronomical 42.47%.

#12 As I wrote about recently, the European Central Bank has stepped into the marketplace and is buying up huge amounts of sovereign debt from troubled nations such as Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy.  As a result, the ECB is alsomassively overleveraged at this point.

#13 Most of the major banks in Europe are also leveraged to the hilt and have tremendous exposure to European sovereign debt.

#14 Political wrangling in Europe is threatening to unravel the Greek bailout package.  In a recent article, Satyajit Das described what has been going on behind the scenes in the EU.

The sticking point is a demand for collateral for the second bailout package. Finland demanded and got Euro 500 million in cash as security against their Euro 1,400 million share of the second bailout package. Hearing of the ill-advised side deal between Greece and Finland, Austria, the Netherlands and Slovakia also are now demanding collateral, arguing that their banks were less exposed to Greece than their counterparts in Germany and France entitling them to special treatment. At least, one German parliamentarian has also asked the logical question, why Germany is not receiving similar collateral.

#15 German Chancellor Angela Merkel is trying to hold the Greek bailout deal together, but a wave of anti-bailout hysteria is sweeping Germany, and nowaccording to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard it looks like Merkel may not have enough votes to approve the latest bailout package.

German media reported that the latest tally of votes in the Bundestag shows that 23 members from Mrs Merkels own coalition plan to vote against the package, including twelve of the 44 members of Bavarias Social Christians (CSU). This may force the Chancellor to rely on opposition votes, risking a government collapse.

#16 Polish finance minister Jacek Rostowski is warning that the status quo in Europe will lead to collapse.  According to Rostowski, if the EU does not choose the path of much deeper economic integration the eurozone simply is not going to survive much longer.

The choice is: much deeper macroeconomic integration in the eurozone or its collapse. There is no third way.

#17 German voters are against the introduction of Eurobonds by about a 5 to 1 margin, so deeper economic integration in Europe does not look real promising at this point.

#18 If something goes wrong with the Greek bailout, Greece is financially doomed.  Just consider the following excerpt from a recent article by Puru Saxena.

In Greece, government debt now represents almost 160% of GDP and the average yield on Greek debt is around 15%. Thus, if Greeces debt is rolled over without restructuring, its interest costs alone will amount to approximately 24% of GDP. In other words, if debt pardoning does not occur, nearly a quarter of Greeces economic output will be gobbled up by interest repayments!

#19 The global banking system has a total of 2 trillion dollars of exposure to Greek, Irish, Portuguese, Spanish and Italian debt.  Considering how much the global banking system is leveraged, this amount of exposure could end up wiping out a lot of major financial institutions.

#20 The head of the IMF, Christine Largarde, recently warned that European banks are in need of urgent recapitalization.

#21 Once the European crisis unravels, things could move very rapidly downhill.  In a recent article, John Mauldin put it this way.

It is only a matter of time until Europe has a true crisis, which will happen faster BANG! than any of us can now imagine. Think Lehman on steroids. The U.S. gave Europe our subprime woes. Europe gets to repay the favor with an even more severe banking crisis that, given that the U.S. is at best at stall speed, will tip us into a long and serious recession. Stay tuned.

#22 The U.S. housing market is still a complete and total mess.  According to a recently released report, U.S. home prices fell 5.9% in the second quarter compared to a year earlier.  That was the biggest decline that we have seen since 2009.  But even with lower prices very few people are buying.  According to the National Association of Realtors, sales of previously owned homesdropped 3.5 percent during July.  That was the third decline in the last four months.  Sales of previously owned homes are even lagging behind last years pathetic pace.

#23 According to John Lohman, the decline in U.S. economic data over the past three months has been absolutely unprecedented.

#24 Morgan Stanley now says that the U.S. and Europe are hovering dangerously close to a recession and that there is a good chance we could enter one at some point in the next 6 to 12 months.

#25 Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota says that he is so alarmed about the state of the economy that he may drop his opposition to more monetary easing.  Could more quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve soon be on the way? …’

 

 

 

If We Punished Executives the Way China Does, We Wouldn't Have Any Left Minyanville Justin Rohrlich [ I think we should consider this approach, starting with the frauds on wall street, which of course in the sense of all roads lead to, will unearth other criminals deserving of such treatment since their corruption has had life/death effects on the general populace through no fault of their own!] Here in the United States, we've certainly gotten far more than we ever bargained for when it comes to corruption in the collective C-suite.

A few have been punished. Many have not. In China, though, they kill their Dennis Kozlowskis.

Yesterday, Li Hua, former chairman and general manager of the Sichuan division of China Mobile (CHL), was sentenced to death for accepting more than $2.5 million in bribes.

The Intermediate People
s Court in the southwestern city of Panzhihua handed down the verdict with a two-year reprieve, meaning if Li behaves himself, he could skate with a mere slap on the wrist -- life in prison.

The New York Times points out that the "same type of sentence was handed down last month for one of the company
s other former executives, Zhang Chunjiang, who once served as vice chairman of China Mobile, which also included the confiscation of his personal assets and the removal of his political rights.

He was convicted of accepting more than $1.15 million in bribes while working at a series of state-run telecom companies from 1994 to 2009. At least six other executives from China Mobile are under investigation in corruption cases. (It may be worth noting that last week, China Mobile revealed that it
met several times with Steve Jobs to talk about Apple (AAPL) making an iPhone that would support its proprietary 3G standard." Currently, China Unicom (CHU) is the only carrier in China offering the device. )

When Chen Tonghai, former chairman of Sinopec (SNP), was sentenced to death for bribery in 2009, he was also granted a two-year reprieve after confessing to his crimes. According to state-run news service Xinhua, the court cut Chen a break of sorts, stating that for "crimes involving 'extremely large sums of money,' the suspects should be sentenced to death, but 'if they confess or contribute to the handling of relevant cases, they should not get an immediate death penalty in principle.'"

"Chen Tonghai's sentence is a result of people's court's criminal policies and reflects both severe punishment of corruption and the policy of tempering justice with mercy," Xinhua said.

But, Chinese justice lacks a particularly even hand. State-run news service Xinhua explains why certain executions are performed more hastily than others:

Corrupt officials, such as former vice-chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress Cheng Kejie who was executed in September 2000, former vice governor of Anhui Province Wang Huaizhong who was given a lethal injection in February 2004, and former food and drug administration head Zheng Xiaoyu, executed in July 2007, got immediate death sentences because they "refused to plead guilty" and their bribe-taking "caused extremely serious social impact.”


This spring, China revised the law, when authorities deemed 13 non-violent economic offenses to no longer be executable crimes, though Amnesty International called it "legal housekeeping," as the infractions were
all seldom if ever punished by execution to begin with.

Andrew Yang of the Laogai Research Foundation -- established in 1992 by Harry Wu, a democracy activist and survivor of the laogai, China
s system of forced-labor prison camps -- provided us with a translation of the official list (which just so happens not to include bribery):

And finally, simple theft.

However, the Chinese leadership doesn
t rely solely on the legal system to control the business community at large.

From Russell Lee Moses, writing for the Wall Street Journal
s China Real Time Report:

After weeks of taking jabs to the chin from an angry microblogging public, leading forces in the [Chinese Communist] Party have decided to punch back. Politburo member Liu Qi visited the Beijing offices of Sina.com’s (SINA) popular microblogging service Weibo earlier this week and impressed upon the staff there the need for “the Internet’s healthy development”—code words for staying away from topics which attack the rule of the Communist Party or hold officials up for public ridicule.

[…]

Liu’s strong-arm visit follows a series of admonitions in the Party media, warning journalists to get back into the government fold and to play the role of conveying to a skeptical society that cadres care.
The hardline view, expressed in a recent article posted in the “People’s Forum” run by the official People’s Daily, is that microblogging is best confronted, not by embracing it as a way for the public to supervise the Party, but by the Party’s “use [of] the mass media to tell the truth.”


By all accounts, corruption is so thoroughly ingrained in the operating culture of Chinese officialdom, the roles in this situation seem to be comically reversed.

“There is really no way to control the corruption among Chinese officials,” Yang told me in a telephone interview. “If bribery was not punishable by death, corrupt officials would be even bolder in grabbing the public’s wealth. And without a free press, the behavior of officials cannot be monitored, so corruption simply runs wild.”

James H. Zimmerman, Jr., Amnesty International's Country Specialist for China, says the execution of government officials for bribery “is fairly common.”

In an email message, Zimmerman pointed out that “most have been politically isolated, so they have no one coming to their defense.”

The majority of China’s citizenry certainly isn’t.

As explained by Teng Biao of China’s Economic Observer (and translated by Worldcrunch.com), “China is the global leader for the number of corrupt officials who are sentenced to death, and actually executed each year. But, judging by the seemingly endless ‘public demand’ for this kind of punishment and the surging popular anger, it would seem that there is actually not enough of it.”

And Joshua Rosenzweig, former senior researcher at the Di Hua Foundation, a human rights organization based in San Francisco and Hong Kong, told the Washington Post that “there still is a very strong sense that corrupt officials must die among the Chinese population at large. The revulsion for that offense is so strong that there would be a potential political cost to eliminating the death penalty for corruption."

Not altogether surprisingly, the specter of death doesn’t necessarily act as a deterrent.

In 2009, a six-year old schoolgirl in southern China was asked by a television reporter what she wanted to become when she grew up.

"When I grow up I want to be an official," she replied.

"What kind of official?" asked the interviewer.

"A corrupt official because corrupt officials have a lot of things," she said.’

 

 

 

BofA Warns Upcoming “Desperate Measures” By Authorities Will Result In Another 2008 Market Collapse Zero Hedge |

 

 

New national debt data: $4.247 Trillion in 945 days L.A. Times


Home sales approach worst point in half a century Bloomberg


Bloomberg reveals massive corruption in the private Federal Reserve Madison Ruppert


In Baltimore, homes for $10,000 — and less Baltimore Sun | Housing prices continue to fall through much of the region.

Social Security disability on verge of insolvency

 

 

 

MKM Bracing For SPY To Drop 8% More; Nasdaq Nearing August Lows at Barrons.com Murray Coleman ‘Stocks continue to slump today, reeling from a raft of ugly data and growing concerns about European sovereign debt. But how far lower can ETFs tracking key benchmarks slide? MKM Partners’ technical analyst Katie Stockton sees a range around $110 a share for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as the next level of support. That would represent about a 3-4% drop from current levels. SPY most recently was trading down 4.6% at $114.09 a share. “I do expect that level ($110) to be re-tested in coming weeks,” Stockton said in an interview, noting that level had been tested early last week and held. The problem is that her indicators show that blue chip U.S. stocks still could have a ways to go. “The market doesn’t appear oversold at this point, so the market looks like it could go lower,” Stockton said. Perhaps the most important level for SPY is the February 2010 low of $105 a share, roughly 8% below current levels. “That level hasn’t been broken on a decisive basis yet,” Stockton noted. “That’s the number we’re really keeping a close eye on after what’s taken place today.” Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq’s near-term backdrop looks just as volatile, notes Michael Ashbaugh in his Technical Trader investment letter. With Thursday’s downturn, the benchmark has knifed straight through initial support at 2,493 placing it back within August-crash territory. In the near-term, the veteran technician expects to see modest support at around 2,357 — its August closing low. That’s around 0.6% from where the index’s trading at now.’

 

 

 

Stocks Plunge, Gold Surges on Global Concern Aug 18th, 2011 14:30 by News (Bloomberg) — ‘Stocks plunged while Treasuries rallied, pushing yields to record lows, amid growing signs the economy is slowing and speculation that European banks lack sufficient capital. Gold climbed to a record, while oil led commodities lower. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index tumbled 4.5 percent to 1,140.74 at 4 p.m. in New York. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 4.8 percent in its worst plunge since March 2009 and Germany’s DAX Index slid 5.8 percent, the most since 2008. Ten-year Treasury yields fell as much as 19 basis points to 1.97 percent as rates on similar-maturity Canadian and British debt also reached all-time lows. The dollar gained versus 15 of 16 major peers, strengthening 0.6 percent to $1.4336 per euro. Gold futures rallied as much as 2.1 percent to $1,832 an ounce, while oil slid 5.9 percent.’ European Shares Fall Most Since March 2009 Aug 18th, 2011 12:01 by News (CNBC) — ‘European equities suffered their biggest daily fall in two and a half years on Thursday, as a slew of data cast further doubt on the strength of the recovery in the world’s biggest economy. German shares lost most, with traders citing the effects of a short-selling ban on financial stocks in other parts of Europe and intensifying worries about politicians’ lack of a plan to address the euro zone sovereign debt crisis. The European banking sector, exposed to the euro zone debt crisis, fell 6.6 percent and is down 29.7 percent this year.’

 

 

 

 

Jobless Claims, Inflation Rise More Than Expected CNBC | New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week.  Chavez Nationalizes Venezuela’s Gold Industry, Recalls Hundreds of Tons of Gold Held Abroad, May Cause a Scramble for Physical Gold From JP Morgan and Others    SEC destroyed crucial probe data: senator AFP | The SEC may have destroyed documents related to possible violations by major banks and hedge funds.  World stock markets plunge as fears of recession intensify guardian.co.uk   Don’t Swallow the FED’s $16 Trillion Suicide Pill Michael McKay | The Federal Reserve secretly kept the Phony-Fiat-Money-System afloat by “lending” out $16 Trillion.   GALLUP: Americans satisfied with ‘the way things are going’ — 11%! Gallup | Americans’ satisfaction with the way things are going in the United States has fallen back to 11%.

 

 

 

Stocks: Mutual Fund Investors Hate Them the Most Since Oct. 2008 at The Wall Street Journal 

Rick Perry on Ben Bernanke: Fed Chairman's Money Printing Policies Are "Almost Treasonous"at Minyanville 
The Loss of Momentum in the Markets All Too Apparent Now Bob Chapman

 

 

 

Venezuela Plans to Move Reserve Funds Aug 17th, 2011 10:35 by News August 17 (The Wall Street Journal) —‘ Venezuela plans to transfer billions of dollars in cash reserves from abroad to banks in Russia, China and Brazil and tons of gold from European banks to its central bank vaults, according to documents reviewed Tuesday by The Wall Street Journal.The planned moves would include transferring $6.3 billion in cash reserves, most of which Venezuela now keeps in banks such as the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, and Barclays Bank in London to unnamed Russian, Chinese and Brazilian banks, one document said.Venezuela also plans to move 211 tons of gold it keeps abroad and values at $11 billion to the vaults of the Venezuelan Central Bank in Caracas where the government keeps its remaining 154 tons of bullion, the document says. PG View: There have been plenty of reasons to question President Chávez’s sanity in recent years, but seeking to lessen Venezuela’s dependence on the dollar and removing assets, particularly their gold, from Western banks is actually pretty prudent. It will be interesting to see how forthcoming those Western banks will be in facilitating the repatriation of Venezuela’s gold.’ Chavez Plans on Nationalizing Gold Industry Fox Business | “I have here the laws allowing the state to exploit gold and all related activities.”

 

 

Putin sets sights on Eurasian economic union Financial Times | Twenty years after the Soviet Union collapsed, Vladimir Putin, the Russian prime minister, may not, as is sometimes alleged, be trying to recreate it.

 

Putting The Cart On Top Of The Horse, Or Why Heaping Fiscal “Stimulus” Upon “Stimulus” Is Suicide For America Zero Hedge | Feeding the government monster is, contrary to what Krugman and other Keynesians will tell you, in the current regime of coincident monetary irrigation, an exercise in futility.

 

 

 

Merkel/Sarkozy press conference: No chance of eurobond anytime soon. No expansion of ESFS. Move toward common governance.  Financial  transaction tax. Aug 16th, 2011 10:37 by News EUR rallied then retreated. Germany adds to eurozone’s woes Aug 16th, 2011 10:13 by News August 16 (Financial Times) — German economic growth slowed to a near standstill in the second quarter of this year, dealing a further, unexpected blow to the crisis-hit eurozone.The surprisingly-sharp deceleration in activity in Europe’s largest economy hit overall eurozone growth and intensified fears about the global slowdown. It also threatened to complicate the challenge facing the region’s policymakers as they seek to combat its escalating debt crisis.

 

 

Stocks Slip On Concern Over Europe's Debt, U.S. Data

Dell braces investors for a bumpy road 16 Aug 2011 Dell makes a case on why it can better weather an upcoming storm with more higher margin businesses...

S&P says sell Google's shares after Motorola deal

Ron Paul on Texas Straight Talk: U.S. Government Debt Is Becoming Worthless

 

 

 

 

How Low Will Stocks Go? at Minyanville  By MoneyShow.com Aug 12, 2011  Up 500 points one day, down 500 the next. That’s the way the market is these days.

On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 520 points, erasing all of Tuesday’s gains from the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep short-term interest rates near zero. As of noon Thursday, it’s up about 250.

By Wednesday’s close, the Dow had lost 2,000 points, or more than 15% of its value, since July 21. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes lost slightly more during that time. All three are perilously close to the 20% decline from the late April-early May top that many pundits (particularly in the media) use as a rule of thumb to determine a bear market.

Unfortunately, I think stocks have still lower to go. How low? Later in this column I’ll tell you what some respected technical analysts think.

But let’s start with the fundamentals.

First, the economy. Need I say more? Jobless figures were somewhat better in June, but economists have revised downward their estimates of GDP growth. Measures of consumer confidence are pretty weak.

And did anybody get the real message the Federal Open Market Committee put out Tuesday? The economy is so sick, the Fed is willing to guarantee exceptionally low rates for two years! I’ve never seen the Fed telegraph its moves so far in advance, and the FOMC’s statement said over and over again how lousy the economy is.

Meanwhile, the open rebellion by three voting FOMC members makes it highly unlikely we’re going to see another round of quantitative easing anywhere near as big as the last two.

Third, there’s the debt crisis. Everyone agrees the European Union just doesn’t have the money to bail out Italy and Spain, its third and fourth largest economies, if it comes to that. Rumors are swirling about the health of French banks and the safety of France’s AAA rating.

And the debt-ceiling standoff here, which culminated in S&P downgrading the US’s AAA credit rating, means more government action to “fix” the economy is likely off the table.

So there’s no way President Obama will get much additional stimulus. He’s desperately trying to extend unemployment benefits and the payroll tax holiday for another year, but that looks pretty iffy at best. (You can read more from me about the "end of the welfare state" on The Independent Agenda.)

Finally, there are earnings, which have been great. But we’re getting much later in the cycle, and their momentum appears to be slowing. It’s hard for me to see how earnings growth alone is going to power the market much higher when everything else appears to be going in the opposite direction.

And while valuations are looking attractive by some measures, they don’t exist in a vacuum, either.

So, where does that leave us? Four prominent technical analysts I contacted all agreed: Stocks are heading lower, likely into a new bear market.

David Sneddon, head of technical analysis research at Credit Suisse in London, said the 1,370.58 intraday high in the S&P we saw on May 2 was the likely top. There’s critical technical support around 1,100, which is just about from where the market bounced back this week. So far, we seem to be holding that.

The next level of technical support below that is at 1,020-1,022. “You’d have to get below [1,000-1,010] to have a genuine bear market.”

Another London-based technician, Sandy Jadeja of City Index, who watches the Dow, thinks that’s where we’re going.

A few weeks ago, he predicted the Dow would drop to 10,428, which it did. Now, he told me by e-mail, “the rally that follows will be brief, and then lead to another leg down to 9,673 and further.”

“Lows are not to be expected until 2012,” he concluded. “Next month is critical. If we break the low of August in September, there is worse to come.”

 

Mark Arbeter, chief technical analyst of Standard & Poor’s, said back in May and June that the bull market was probably over, as I reported in this column. He hasn’t changed his position.

By e-mail, he said he “would look for some stabilization and a potential short-term rally now that the S&P 500 has fallen into a major zone of chart support…between 1,023 and 1,128.”

Ultimately he thinks the S&P could fall to 1,020, or maybe as low as 935. That would be 15% below Wednesday’s close, and would definitely mark a new bear market.

Michael Kahn, who writes the Getting Technical column for Barrons.com and the QuickTakes Pro blog, has long argued we’re in a secular (long-term) bear market, and he thinks the cyclical bull is over, too. Like Arbeter, he sees 1,010 to 1,050 as the next level of support for the S&P, and below that 930.

“I think it stops at 930 to make the 2000s-2010s follow the 1970s very closely,” he wrote me by e-mail. That’s one decade for which investors have little nostalgia.

The technicians are unanimous that stocks are going lower, though some are looking for a strong rally that goes against the bearish trend. Arbeter doesn’t expect that rally to go much beyond 1,250-1,260 before it sells off again. Sneddon doesn’t think it’ll bounce much higher than 1,200.

“We’ve clearly seen a lot of technical damage done in a lot of markets,” he told me. “I would be personally [inclined] rather to lighten up and reduce my positions” on rallies.

That would be my position, too, if I hadn’t already taken profits and sold what I wanted to a couple of months ago.

If you missed that chance, I wouldn’t sell in panic now, but would wait for stocks to mount a rebound to sell off positions in riskier small-cap stocks (which already may be in a bear market) and emerging markets, whose time in the sun has come and gone. That also may be a good time to permanently reduce your exposure to equities.

But I certainly wouldn’t buy into a market like this with all its wicked swings and uncertainties. Even mighty Goldman Sachs (GS) lost money on 15 trading days in the second quarter! And John Paulson, the hedge-fund genius who masterminded “the greatest trade ever” by shorting subprime mortgages, has lost 31% so far this year in his largest fund.

If people like that who have the best information and technology are losing money in this market, do you really think you’re going to beat them at their own game?

There will be a time to buy again, but it’s not now. This market is heading lower.’


Editor's Note: This article was written by Howard R. Gold, editor at large for MoneyShow.com. 

 

 

 

Five Reasons for the Stock Market Crash and Zero Interest Rate 11 Aug 2011  Read more: Five Reasons for the Stock Market Crash and Zero Interest Rate    http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Stock-Market-Interest-Rate/2011/08/11/id/406976  Its said that the stock market climbs a wall of worry. Because the stock market is trying to predict the future success or failures of various companies, it sometimes gets things wrong. Horribly, terribly wrong.

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling like a rock, with wild swings not seen since the stock market crash of 2008, many investors are on the verge of panic. It
s easy to see why. The Federal Reserve is committed to keeping interest rates near zero until mid-2013 at the earliest. Those low interest rates penalize investors on a fixed income who dont want the risk of the stock market.

Publisher
s Note: In an exclusive interview presentation, Aftershock 2012, Robert Wiedemer outlines a dire financial warning along with a comprehensive blueprint for economic survival. Over one million Americans have seen the evidence and learned how to weather the stock market, secure interest rates, and save their financial future. Watch the video now.

But investors who understand the reasons behind the latest decline in the stock market have little to fear. Below are five reasons why the stock market is crashing right now:

1) Current Debt Crisis in Europe and the United States

Between record high bond rates in Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland, the eurozone has its hands full in dealing with too much debt relative to the size of its various economies. As a result of the poor bond performance from these countries, Europe is on the cusp of plunging into a banking crisis. Such a crisis could send interest rates soaring for “prime” countries like France and Germany, not to mention throw the continent into a recession.

Across the Atlantic, the United States isn’t faring much better. The recent debt ceiling drama concluded at the 11th hour, with very little in the way of true cuts. Instead, the government has promised to cut future growth, which may or may not even occur. No wonder S&P downgraded U.S. debt!

Ultimately, it isn’t risky assets like stocks that cause economic problems. Markets sell off when seemingly safe assets are suddenly recognized as significantly riskier than they were once perceived.

2) United States Government Is at an Impasse

As part of the recent debt ceiling deal, Congress approved the creation of a bipartisan super-committee comprised of 12 members to fast-track legislation. The constitutionality of such a committee is dubious at best, but it’s just one way for Washington lawmakers to pass off responsibility and avoid tough decisions.

It doesn’t end there. The Federal Reserve has tried two rounds of “quantitative easing,” a scheme to buy up excess debt. The rationale was that it would get the U.S. economy back on track. Instead, this plan juiced the returns of the stock market, and sent gas prices and grocery costs soaring.

Meanwhile, Congressional Republicans are calling for the ouster of Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner as a consequence of the U.S. losing its S&P AAA credit rating.

In other words, it’s business as usual for the government: trying to fix a crisis that’s largely the result of its own poor oversight, while avoiding any responsibility for causing the problem in the first place.

3) U.S. Unemployment Is Running Over 15%!

As long as the U.S. economy isn’t creating enough new jobs, it will stagnate. Although the unemployment rate has declined from the double-digit rates it hit in 2009/2010, many astute individuals have noted that the latest unemployment report is inaccurate.

Using the measurement for unemployment used by the government up until the early 1980s, true unemployment is running over 15%!

Meanwhile, many thrown out of work have exhausted their unemployment benefits, which in some cases lasted as long as 99 weeks. Once off unemployment, they officially disappear from the official unemployed list, making the job market appear better than expected.

Adding millions of jobs would be the best economic stimulus possible. It would allow millions to loosen their belts and spend more, which would be a huge boon across the entire economy.

Publisher’s Note: Author and esteemed economist Bob Wiedemer accurately predicted these events more than four years ago. Over one million Americans have seen the evidence and learned how to weather the stock market, secure interest rates, and save their financial future. Watch the video now.

4) United States Has No Economic Growth

Historically, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates to increase economic growth. That’s because lower interest rates make it easier for individuals to borrow money to buy cars, houses, start small businesses and the like. However, there’s been nearly no growth since the United States plunged into a recession in 2008. And the Federal Reserve can’t cut rates any lower.

There’s no doubt in the minds of many market participants that more Fed easing policies are on the way, especially after America’s first-quarter GDP was revised from 1.9% to 0.4%.

The stock market’s moves are highly dependent on economic growth. If an individual company can post huge growth numbers, its shares tend to go up, and its shares tend to decline when growth stalls. When a country’s GDP is stagnant, investors don’t know what to expect. Hence the recent stock market plunge, as economic data may suggest that another recession is upon us.

5) No Housing Recovery

The stock market crash of 2011 is starting to resemble the stock market crash of 2008 in one key way: Bank stocks are leading the decline. Since the start of August, banks deemed “too big to fail” like Citigroup and Bank of America have sold off twice as hard as the overall stock market.

It’s easy to see why. Banks are sitting on millions of properties listed on their balance sheets at pre-housing crash prices. If all these properties hit the market at once, prices would have to fall substantially. If the banks have to sell them at a loss, they’ll take a hit to their balance sheet at a time when they’re still trying to improve it.

A housing recovery can spur job growth for construction jobs, real estate agents, and businesses in new communities. But we currently have a housing glut that will take several years to work through.

Until then, without a housing recovery, it’ll be tough for the overall economy to recover. That means the stock market is in for a wild ride and low interest rates are here to stay.

While these five reasons aren’t a comprehensive list of the problems weighing down the stock market and keeping interest rates paltry, they should give most investors a reason to stay cautious over the next few months.

Based on the market’s action and recent economic data, it’s more likely than not we’re entering a double-dip recession. Stay heavy on safe investments and don’t give into the fear.


Read more: Five Reasons for the Stock Market Crash and Zero Interest Rate
Important: Can you afford to Retire? Shocking Poll Results …’

 

Stocks Overbought Already?at The Wall Street Journal

 

Are US Markets Facing the Abyss? [ Short answer: Worse! ] at Minyanville   Jeffrey Cooper Aug 15, 2011

As soon as the idea of the Deluge had subsided, a hare stopped in the clover and swaying flowerbells, and said a prayer to the rainbow, through the spiders web.

Oh, the precious stones that began to hide, and the flowers that already looked around.

In the dirty main street, stalls were set up and boats were hauled toward the sea, high tiered as in old prints.

Blood flowed at Blue Beard
s -- though slaughterhouses, in circuses, where the windows were blanched by Gods seal. Blood and milk flowed.

Beavers built.
Mazagrans smoked in the little bars.

In the big glass house, still dripping, children in mourning looked at the marvelous pictures.

A door banged; and in the village square the little boy waved his arms, understood by weather vanes and cocks on steeples everywhere, in the bursting shower.

Madame installed a piano in the Alps. Mass and first communions were celebrated at the hundred thousand altars of the cathedral.

Caravans set out. And Hotel Splendid was built in the chaos of ice and the polar night.

Ever after the moon heard jackals howling across the deserts of thyme, and eclogues in wooden shoes growling in the orchard. Then in the violet and budding forest, Eucharis told me it was spring.

Gush, pond -- foam, roll on the bridge and over the woods -- black palls and organs, lightning and thunder, rise and roll -- waters and sorrows rise and launch the Floods again.

For since they have been dissipated -- oh, the precious stones being buried and the opened flowers -- it
s unbearable. And the Queen, the Witch who lights her fire in the earthen pot will never tell us what she knows, and what we do not know.

--Apres Le Deluge, Arthur Rimbaud

"Yeah, keep your eyes on the road, your hands upon the wheel...
Let it roll, baby, roll.
"
-Roadhouse Blues (The Doors)

Somebody hit her with a chair, you know. I guess theres no way to determine who did it. Its already coagulating. She was just an innocent bystander. Its a democracy.
-Jim Morrison

There are things known and there are things unknown, and in between are the doors of perception.
-Aldous Huxley

That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons that History has to teach.
-Aldous Huxley

Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad.
-Aldous Huxley

The market went mad last week. The truth of capitalism was in chaos, democracy in disarray, and paralyzed politics hit home. The truth hurts.

And the Queen, the Witch who lights her fire in the earthen pot will never tell us what she knows, and what we do not know.

Seemingly in unison, market participants' heads hit their pillows Friday night with a thousand points of night running like shards of broken confidence through their minds.

The consumer confidence number hit the lowest level in a generation as the retail therapy of conspicuous consumption threatens to hit the wall.

Anesthetized with lies and sedated with stimulus, is the consumer shopped out and about to send a wake-up call to Mr. Economy?

At the end of World War II, no power existed which could compete with the US militarily or economically.

The US had saved the world from the scourge of dictatorship.

In return, the Bretton-Woods Agreement in the Summer of 1944 also gave us the monetary power to print the world
s currency. We promised it would always be convertible into gold at the rate of $35 per ounce. This proviso was between the worlds central banks and ours. It remained true until August 15, 1971 when President Nixon voided the agreement because French President de Gaulle was about to make a run on our gold, which he knew wasnt sufficient to back up all of the currency then floating around in the worlds central banks. De Gaulle was about to precipitate a kind of run on the bank.

Son of a gun.

Is this a harmonic of the rumors that Dominique Strauss-Kahn -- former head of the IMF who was about to run for the French presidency -- was set up in a hotel in New York because he was about to reveal something about the gold that is or is not in Fort Knox?

Ever since the Bretton Woods Agreement was broken 40 years ago today, the dollar has been wandering in a sort of financial Biblical desert, characterized by the last decade of bubbles and busts.

The monthly S&P shows 3 persistent advances: a 5-year run into March 2000, a 4-year run into July 2007, and a 2-year run in May 2011.

The March 2000 top saw a break and a return rally/test failure into late August 2000. The July 2007 top saw a break and a return rally that made a marginal new high test failure in October 2007. Both of these tests failures of the high came roughly 90 days/degrees later.

In 2011 an initial peak played out on February 18th. A test failure played out with a marginal new high roughly 90 days/degrees later.

In
How Mid-September 2008 Ties To The July 2010 Low And Today from late June, I walked through the setup for a waterfall decline.

The March
03 low was 788 which is where the big advance to 2007 began. 2 x 788 gives the price of the S&P all-time high in 2007.

From the March 6, 2009 low to the May 2, 2011 high is 787 days.

Time was
up this May, but the S&P didnt roll over until the anniversary of the July 07 high.

From August 1971 to August 2011 is 480 months. On the Square of 9 Wheel, 480 is square 90 degrees of August 24th.

August 24th is opposite this year's February 18th peak.

The end of the month also ties to the pre-crash high in 1987, the pre-crash high in 1929, and the return rally high in 2000.

The end of August vibrates off major crashes in history.

In addition, early September ties to the 120-month anniversary of 9/11 and the 1000 point DJIA bungee following that crash.

Will an ABC retracement rally following our recent crash be able to satisfy my projection early last week of a 1000 DJIA rally?

Will the end of the month/early September mark a retracement high or a new low?{PAGE_BREA}Surprisingly, after violating the Bretton Woods agreement, the world kept on functioning as though the US dollar was still as good as gold. The only limit on our power to print money was the world
s willingness to continue tolerating our enormous abuse of this power. In effect, it gave us the power to soak up the savings of others around the world in order for us to consume. It was a giddy time.

It was a giddy-up time for politicians intent on spending to buy votes and the incestuous target they created for lobbyists.

Americans then had a free ride in financial matters to take the labor of others and use them to their benefit. We no longer had to produce. We could just let others do the producing and all that we needed to do was print more money and pay them off.

That illusion is ebbing.

Technically, the market looks like it is creeping higher to finish off an ABC upward correction from 1190 to 1225, which should see the market quickly fall to lower lows. The mid-point of equilibrium between the 666 low and the 1371 high equates to 1018. A decline to 1018 could be a test of the 1011 low in July 2010.

1190 is the mid-point from the July 2010 low to the May 2011 high.

1225 ties to last year's double tops.

A full backtest of the big neckline ties to 1250ish.

This week the market will tie to the chance for an Upside Follow Through Day -- a day with a substantial gain on substantial volume at least 4 days after a low.

This week is also options expiration, so a possible C wave corrective rally could theoretically see the market hold up into the end of the week.

However, without a big momentum day to hook the shorts, the market will drift before another leg down targeting 1040ish to 940ish.

We have been looking for a blow out low near mid-August based primarily on the cycle from 1951.

The closing lows for two sessions near 1121 aligns with mid-August on the Square of 9 Wheel. Only above 1260 does the market suggest something else other than a new bear leg is playing out.

We don
t want to short if a washout has occurred like in August 2007. As we asked in a report last week, is this a blow-out low or a mid-point for a move lower?

At the same time it
s tricky to go long here between 1190 and 1225: the vast majority of technicals indicate a new bear leg. While many stocks are improving they have not repaired the damage.

A lot of comparisons have been made between the current cascade in stocks and 2008. Memory is short on Wall Street, but not that short. It is possible that money managers and robots alike sold first and will ask questions later so as not to be mangled in a another train wreck.

But this is not like 2008 in the sense that the Crash in the Fall of 2008 was a second leg down.

Modern markets haven
t seen a drop off a peak or pivot high from late July like we just witnessed. It was worse that last years Flash Crash in May 2010. It is worse than the initial sell-off in late 2008.

Even on Black Monday in 1987, stocks were decimated in virtually one day and it was over. This one has been a Roller Coaster Crash.

While the market has echoed the Flying Elvis Pattern that installed a low from mid-July 2010, it remains extremely risky as the sharpness and steepness of the selloff leaves it/left it primed for a reflex rally.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/cooper/0811/15/ARCX_SPY_D%20--%20SPDR%20S&P%20500%20TRUST.gif

At the same time, as offered in a chart in this space in late July, the set up for a waterfall crash like 1929 was in place and that pattern may not have played out completely.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/cooper/0811/15/DJIA%201929%20Daily.gif%20final.jpg

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/cooper/0811/15/ARCX_GLD_D%20--%20SPDR%20GOLD%20SHARES.gif   

 

Rickards – US will revalue gold to $7000  Aug 15th, 2011 15:10 by News  August 15 (King World News) — ‘ He (Nixon) said first of all I am imposing national price controls because there was an inflation problem in the United States at the time. The second thing he said was I am putting a 10% surtax of imports on all imported goods coming into the United States. Then about 10 minutes into the speech, very much en passant, he said, ‘Oh by the way we are suspending the convertibility of dollars into gold’ and he immediately went into this Nixonian rant about speculators. So it was very interesting, there were three earth-shaking announcements. Can you imagine any one of those three things going on today? President Obama or any President saying he was going to impose nationwide price controls, or all Chinese goods would have a 10% surcharge. It would be cataclysmic, yet Nixon did both of those things. Plus (Nixon) took us off the gold standard, so it was quite a dramatic speech. In a strange way he did us all a favor by making sure we (the US) held on to the gold. So I do think the United States is in a position to revalue the currency using gold to that $7,000 level. That will obviously be a huge benefit to all of the people who invested in gold because they are going to be along for the ride, along with the United States when that gold goes to $7,000.” Excerpted from an interview that is available here.



Fed Pledge Let's You Know The Fix Is In  Forbes  Peter Schiff Last weeks wild actions on Wall Street should serve as a stark reminder that few investors have any clue as to what is really going on beneath the surface of Americas troubled economy. It did bring startling clarity on at least one front. In its August policy statement the Federal Reserve took the highly unusual step of putting a specific time frame for the continuation of its near zero interest rate policy.

Moving past the previously uncertain pronouncements that they would keep interest rates low for an extended period, the Fed now tells us that rates will not budge from rock bottom for at least two years. Although the markets rallied on the news (at least for a few minutes) in reality the policy will inflict untold harm on the U.S. economy. The move was so dangerous and misguided that three members of the Feds Open Market Committee actually voted against it. This level of dissent within the Fed hasnt been seen for years.

Many economists have short-sightedly concluded that ultra low interest rates are a sure fire way to spur economic growth. The easier and cheaper it is to borrow, they argue, the more likely business and consumers are to spend. And because spending spurs growth, in their calculation, low rates are always good. But, as is typical, they have it backwards.

I believe that ultra-low interest rates are among the biggest impediments currently preventing genuine economic growth in the US economy. By committing to keep them near zero for the next two years, the Fed has actually lengthened the time Americans will now have to wait before a real recovery begins. Low rates are the root cause of the misallocation of resources that define the modern American economy. As a direct result, Americans borrow, consume, and speculate too much, while we save, produce, and invest too little.

It may come as a shock to some, but just like everything else in a free market, interest rate levels are best determined by the freely interacting forces of supply and demand. In the case of interest rates, the determinative factors should be the supply of savings available to lend and the demand for money by people and business who want to borrow. Many of the beneficial elements of market determined rates are explained in my book How an Economy Grows and Why it Crashes. But allowing the government to determine interest rates as a matter of policy creates a number of distortions.

It was bad enough that the Fed held rates far too low, but at least a fig leaf of uncertainty kept the most brazen speculators in partial paralysis. But by specifically telegraphing policy, the Fed has now given cover to the most parasitic elements of the financial sector to undertake transactions that offer no economic benefit to the nation. Specifically, it will simply encourage banks to borrow money at zero percent from the Fed, and then use significant leverage to buy low yielding treasuries at 2 to 4 percent. The result is a bankers dream: guaranteed low risk profit. In other words it will encourage banks to lend to the government, which already borrows too much, and not lend to private borrowers, whose activity could actually benefit the economy.

This reckless policy, designed to facilitate government spending and appease Wall Street financiers, will continue to starve Main Street of the capital it needs to make real productivity-enhancing investments. American investment capital will continue to flow abroad, denying local business the means to expand and hire. It also destroys interest rates paid to holders of bank savings deposits which traditionally had been a financial pillar of retirees. In addition, such an inflationary policy drives real wages lower, robbing Americans of their purchasing power. The consequence is a dollar in free-fall, dragging down with it the standard of living of average Americans.

Until interest rates are allowed to rise to appropriate levels, more resources will be misallocated, additional jobs will be lost, government spending and deficits will continue to grow, the dollar will keep falling, consumer prices will keep rising, and the government will keep blaming our problems on external factors beyond its control. As the old adage goes, insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. 

Peter Schiff is CEO of Euro Pacific Capital.

Related Posts:

 

 

 

Train Reading: The Stock Market Is Insane The Wall Street Journal

The stock market has lost its mind Bethany McLean in Slate

Are US banks turning Japanese? FT Alphaville

Hows that austerity working out for you, UK? Econbrowser

Can Jeremy Grantham profit from ecological mayhem? NY Times Magazine

Authors and critics reveal which lit classics they consider overrated Slate

Its not so easy applying Moneyball principles to soccer WSJ 

 

 

THE STOCK MARKET HAS LOST ITS MIND Bethany McLean in Slate Risk On! Do the Fed, computer trading, and a few hedge funds rule the market? That might explain why it's lost its mind. After the madness of last week and the rollercoaster at the beginning of this week, the stock market recovered from its Aug. 10 rout to bounce 423 points on Aug. 11. It was the fourth day in a row in which the index moved by more than 400 points, which has never happened before in history. As I write this, stock prices are leveling off, but the big swings may not be over. Has the market gone mad? Actually, yes.

In theory, the stock market is supposed to reflect the prospects for the economythe earnings potential of the stocks that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average. But there's more than one reason to believe that what's going on now has little to do with any rational view of the future, and a lot to do with the market itself. "Dip your toes into any risk asset right now and understand that you are not entering into anything remotely resembling a normal market environment," wrote David Rosenberg, the well-respected former Merrill Lynch analyst who is now the chief economist at Canadian firm Gluskin Sheff, in his recent newsletter. "Dysfunctional is more like it."

The first factor to consider is that the huge rebound in stocks and in all sorts of risk assets from the spring of 2009 until May of this year wasn't necessarily driven by a belief that better times were coming. It was driven by a belief that investors had to buy riskier assets given the Fed's determination to hold interest rates near zero. Because investors can't get a return in "safe" assetsindeed, a small return will get chewed up by inflationthey are driven to riskier assets. As more investors pile in, everyone is driven further out along the risk curve.

This is what traders call "risk on." What they mean is that you'll be rewarded for buying risk, regardless of reality. The Fed's second round of quantitative easing ("QE2"), in which it bought $600 billion of Treasuries in order to keep interest rates low, encouraged this investment strategy. "We had a nice two-year rally in risk assets and something close to an economic recovery, but as we had warned, it was built on sticks and straw, not bricks," wrote Rosenberg. "This isn't much different than the financial engineering in the 2002-07 cycle that gave off the appearance of prosperity."

 The Fed intended this to end happily. The fake wealth created by a soaring market was supposed to turn into real wealth, because rich people, who control much of the economy and who have much of their money in the market, were supposed to spend more. But it hasn't worked, partly because of problems in the rest of the worldthe tsunami in Japan, the financial crisis that's brewing in Europeand partly because our own economy is too deep in hock to achieve the necessary stimulus. As Howard Marks, the chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, put it in his recent letter, "The world has awakened to the undesirability of ever-growing government debt."

You can think of the Fed's medicine as a painkiller. It allows everyone to pretend that bad stuff isn't happening, until something shatters the illusion and the comfortable numbness abruptly gives way to panic. There's massive selling. Then the Fed reassures everyone that its toolbox isn't empty just yetwitness the big upturn on Aug. 9 after the Fed said it would likely hold rates near zero until mid-2013 (a worthless prediction if inflation surges)and the market soars. Risk on!

It's hard to develop any real conviction about the direction of the market when so much depends on the actions of the Federal Reserve. That's especially true because even the members of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee aren't all in agreement. Three members voted against the Fed's Aug. 9 announcement. Complicating matters is that the short term direction of the real economy is also at the mercy of the government. The key line in this Wall Street Journal story: "As goes government spending, so goes the U.S. economy."

Another possible factor in the madness is forced selling by big hedge funds. There are rumors that funds are getting hit by margin calls, or that funds that are having a bad year are getting redemption requests from investors, thereby forcing them to sell. Most of the gossip has focused on John Paulson (the hedge fund manager who famously made his fortune by shorting securities backed by subprime mortgages), given the big positions he was known to have in stocks that have gotten trashed. But if Paulson is hurting, he's probably not alone. "No way big guys could have gotten out," one trader tells me via email. "Big hedge funds with all the same big positions. This move down happened so fast that they are trapped." If this theory is right, then sudden rallies like Thursday's upturn will be followed by more selling, as hedge funds take advantage of the ability to get out.

The last explanation I've heard is that most of the buying and selling hasn't been driven by real people, but rather by computers. Hello, HAL 9000! In the last five years, computer-driven trading, whether controversial high-frequency trading or just programs that buy baskets of stocks based on technical figures, has become a bigger and bigger part of the market. Depending on how you define it, sources tell me it constitutes 70 percent to 90 percent of trading now. "The human element is gone," one trader tells me. At least some people believe that the presence of computers exacerbates the big moves up and down. According to this paper by X. Frank Zhang, an associate professor of accounting at the Yale School of Management, "high frequency trading is positively correlated with stock price volatility." Zhang goes on to say that the "positive correlation is stronger among the top 3,000 stocks in market capitalization and among stocks with high institutional holdings. The positive correlation is also stronger during periods of high market uncertainty." Zhang's academic work is supported by the observations of those who have been in the market for a long time. "I suspect that the real culprits here are the computers Wall Street has programmed and unleashed to trade and manage portfolios," wrote John Bollinger, who has been publishing his Capital Growth Letter for more than two decades. "The sort of mindless selling that we are seeing is most likely the result of machines trading and human beings desperately trying to keep up with them."

Should you buy? Should you sell? No one knows. The world is always an uncertain place, but right now it's more uncertain than usual, whether about the ultimate resolution of Europe's crisis or about how the U.S. will reduce its debt and get the economy growing again. Or perhaps I should say reduce its debt or get the economy growing, since it's unlikely to achieve both at the same time. This inability to guess what the future holds means that madness rules.

 

Withdrawals From Stock Funds Biggest Since 08  Aug 12th, 2011 15:32 by News (Bloomberg) Investors pulled the most money from global stock funds since 2008 in the past week as the Standard & Poors downgrade of Treasuries and the deepening European debt crisis prompted a flight into cash and gold. Funds that buy global equities suffered $3.5 billion in net withdrawals in the week ended Aug. 10, the most since the second week of October 2008, according to Cameron Brandt, director of research at Cambridge, Massachusetts-based EPFR Global. Investors removed $11.7 billion from funds that invest in U.S. equities, the most since May 2010 when investors pulled money following a one-day market crash that briefly erased $862 billion.This week had a feeling of capitulation as we saw investors running for cover, Brandt said in a telephone interview. The last time we saw this kind of flight to safety was in 2008, he said.

 

 

U.S. Consumer Confidence Drops to Three-Decade Low Amid Economic Headwinds  Aug 12th, 2011 13:10 by News (Bloomberg) — ‘Confidence among U.S. consumers plunged in August to the lowest level since May 1980, adding to concern that weak employment gains and volatility in the stock market will prompt households to retrench.The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment slumped to 54.9 from 63.7 the prior month. The gauge was projected to decline to 62, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.’

 

 

 

 

 

Pity the Policymakers  July 21st, 2011 by News  by Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) — ‘I don’t know about you, but whenever I am in an airplane experiencing turbulence, I draw comfort from the belief that the pilots sitting behind the cockpit’s closed door know what to do. I would feel very differently if, through an open door, I observed pilots who were frustrated at the poor responsiveness of the plane’s controls, arguing about their next step, and getting no help whatsoever from the operator’s manuals. So it is unsettling that policymakers in many Western economies today resemble the second group of pilots. This perception reflects not only the contradictory pronouncements and behavior of policymakers, but also the extent to which economic outcomes have consistently fallen short of their expectations.This perception is evident in Europe, the United States, and Japan, where indicators of economic sentiment are deteriorating again, already-weak recoveries are stalling, and over-stretched balance sheets are becoming even more precarious.’

 

 

 

Greek finance minister brushes off downgrade [ Sounds like a plan! ]

 

 

 

Is America The Next Greece? at Forbes Marc Schindler ‘After many years of overeating (overspending) Greece is in the emergency room with a major financial heart attack and America isn’t far behind.

The doctors (IMF, European finance ministers, the ECB, etc.) are running around trying to save it. Open heart surgery (loans guaranteed by others) has averted the immediate crisis, but Greece is just as overweight today as it was before the crisis. Attempts to lose weight through exercise (austerity measures) cause serious chest pains (riots). The doctors dont want to admit it, but all signs point to a heart transplant (default) as the only way to get Greece onto its feet again.

Greece isnt the only one. It is a veritable epidemic. Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain and a host of other countries are having chest pains. Iceland is feeling better now with its freshly transplanted heart. The American home owner is still in the hospital from his financial heart attack after gobbling up vast quantities of real estate, and it has been many decades since Uncle Sam last could see his toes.

By most accounts (e.g. here or Bill Gross statements in a recent interview) total hidden government liabilities add up to about $60-$100 trillion. That is on top of the $14 trillion of debt carried on the balance sheet. Adding up those liabilities, the US owes at least five times GDP, which currently sits at about $15 trillion. For comparison, Greeces debt is about 1.5 times its GDP.

This is not really a fair comparison, because it leaves out any hidden liabilities Greece may have. The US debt figure includes unfunded entitlements, state and local debt, and underfunded public pensions. Nevertheless, it is clear that this is an unsustainable debt load even if the estimates turn out to be off by a factor of two or four.

Uncle Sam is already more overweight than Greece ever was. If he doesnt change his ways, he will end up in the hospital like Greece, but at present he is partying like there is no tomorrow, gorging himself on entitlement spending, costly wars, bailouts, subsidies, and countless other delicacies.

Perhaps it would not be such a bad thing if the talks about raising the debt limit failed. After Uncle Sam suffers the resulting self-inflicted mild heart attack (temporary default) and finds out how much fun it is to fetch up in the emergency room, he might be more inclined to take care of himself, slim down, and stick with an exercise regime.

Some kind of a wakeup call is necessary while there is still time to deal with our debt problem. The only way to address it is for Washington to do its job: get everybody to recognize that there is a problem, find a solution that demands some sacrifices from everyone, and work together across party lines to implement it. In the current political environment that does not seem to be possible. Something needs to change the environment. Greece shows that the alternative is not pretty.

 

 

Corporate Earnings Soar Amidst a Dismal Job MarketWall St. Cheat Sheet [That game’s about to end! In fact, that game’s over!  Dave's Daily  'If you can keep interest rates this low this long, its inevitable cheap financing can allow companies to start cobbling each other up. Further Ben's policies allow companies like IBM to sell bonds at 1% and buy back shares with the proceeds (total paper bubble-scam). POMO is occurring almost daily and Primary Dealers can buy back their shares and pay dividends with what essentially is taxpayer money-- ]

 

 

Standing on the precipice – and ready to jump  July 21st, 2011 News By Wolfgang Münchau ( Financial Times) — ‘It looks like there will be deal on a eurozone package for Greece. The full details are still missing, but it appears that the eurozone is forcing Greece into a selective default. As part of such a package, short-term Greek debt will be more or less forcibly converted into long-term debt. The wretched bank tax is mercifully off the table. And the European financial stability facility will most likely be allowed to purchase Greek debt at a discount. LET US NOT MINCE WORDS HERE. THIS WOULD BE A DEFAULT, THE FIRST BY A WESTERN INDUSTRIALISED COUNTRY IN A GENERATION. I am not quite sure how it is possible for the European Central Bank to agree to this, or to all of this. But I will surely be intrigued to hear how Jean-Claude Trichet will manage to be consistent with what he said a few days ago. There are also reports that the eurozone leaders may accept a more flexible EFSF beyond those bond purchases.’

 

 

 

State Finances Are Worse Than You Think at Forbes

 

 

 

So Far, Market Ignoring Dire Warnings at Minyanville

 

 

 

The Greater Depression Is Upon Us by David Galland http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig10/galland34.1.html  Casey Research Recently by David Galland: The Road to Perdition  The phrase Greater Depression was coined by Doug Casey a decade or so back as a way of describing the economic crisis he foresaw as inevitable, and which is now materializing.

Because I think it is important for every organization to constantly challenge its own assumptions, Ive long acted as something of a devils advocate here at Casey Research. By constantly pushing our analysts to revisit their assumptions and calculations, it is my firm intention for us to spot the fork in the road that indicates it is time to shift strategies away from investments designed to do well in the face of a currency debasement and to something else.

Being attentive to that fork in the road is hugely important, because even though we urge our subscribers not to overdo their exposure to inflation hedges, we recognize that many do. Many a good person had their clocks cleaned in the early 1980s solely because they had become overly enamored of their precious metals so much so that they stopped thinking of them as an asset class and began thinking of them more in the terms one might associate with an amorous dinner date. Thus these investors were utterly unprepared when said date stood up and broke a dinner plate over their heads.

With that brief setup, I want to make our views clear: While we correctly anticipated the recent correction in precious metals, this correction is but a blip in a secular bull market that is very much intact.

Doug Casey has often said that the unfolding crisis is going to be even worse than he expects (which is saying something), and the longer the rest of us at Casey Research study the tea leaves, it is hard to disagree that the Greater Depression is still ahead.

Consider: