8-29-11 POSTS

 

White House working to finalize jobs plan The White House scrambled Monday to finalize a new jobs initiative as President Obama nominated the last member Alan Krueger of the economic team that will be charged with carrying it out. (Washington Post) [ If this was only a Jobs plan; as in a Steve Jobs plan, then there could be a modicum of worthy optimism. But alas, a year from those american jokes called elections, its desperation time and one can only assume that whatever purported to be, the so-called jobs initiative is destined to be unaffordably extravagant, downright uneconomic, inefficient and throw in ineffective (Drucker loved to discuss and distinguish the two - efficient / effective), as well. Yet, even in the Steve Jobs plan, China et als are where most of the jobs would be   { Whats Apple without Steve Jobs?  Jobs has the knack of knowing what people want before they do. Can Apple stay ahead of the curve? (Washington Post) [ Without disparaging the company nor the remaining employees, what can be said of Apple with certainty in response the foregoing question is: LESS. That said, there couldnt have been a more propitious time for the great (without even a tinge of sarcasm among the relatively few great CEOs in corporate history) Steve Jobs to leave. Steve Jobs resigns from Apple, Cook becomes CEO - SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Silicon Valley legend Steve Jobs on Wednesday resigned as chief executive of Apple Inc in a stunning move that ended his 14-year reign at the technology giant he co-founded i... [ Far more than just a Silicon Valley legend, Steve Jobs literally saved Apple from extinction Im truly glad he saved Apple, my first computer (1986 - apple IIc for word processing / data based records / forms / templates / data which I interfaced with an electric typewriter for letter quality) and for that all should be thankful. Apple is the Nasdaq (40% weighting) and quite more, that now was! Thats past tense. Steve Jobs goes out a big winner as indeed he should! Yet, make no mistake, as one might expect, his timing was impeccable inasmuch as without his uniquely inspired innovation, competition moving in, and particularly the coming debacle / crisis the worst of which lies ahead, things are not looking up, in and for pervasively corrupt / defacto bankrupt america particularly, euphemistically speaking. }  .  Ross Perot, who also understood the meaning of the word honor was laughed at for accurately predicting the NAFTA, etc., debacle as jobs have gone, never to return, despite rhetoric to the contrary. That bell cannot be unrung, as is true of any betrayal and the consequences thereof. Were not talking about perfection in this far less than perfect world; but rather, what is optimal. The outlook is realistically worse than dismal. The following includes some protective strategies: Famed economist predicts economic calamity in 2012. See the evidence.Newsmax    http://w3.newsmax.com/a/aftershockb/video.cfm?promo_code=CA79-1      Drudgereport: Obama Economists Admit: 'Stimulus' Cost $278,000 per Job...   Jobless Recovery?: 25 Unemployment Statistics That Are Almost Too Depressing To Read ‘… Unemployment is up again! Thats right even though Wall Street is swimming in cash and the Obama administration is declaring that the recession is over, the U.S. unemployment rate has gone even higher. So are you enjoying the jobless recovery? Economic Collapse Blog Dec 4, 2010 Guess what?  Unemployment is up again!  Thats right even though Wall Street is swimming in cash and the Obama administration is declaring that the recession is over, the U.S. unemployment rate has gone even higher ... Times are really, really tough and unfortunately the long-term outlook is very bleak.  We should have compassion on those who are out of work right now, because soon many of us may join them.

The following are 25 unemployment statistics that are almost too depressing to read.

#1 According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. unemployment rate for November was 9.8 percent.  This was up from 9.6 percent in October, and it continues a trend of depressingly high unemployment rates.  The official unemployment number has been at 9.5 percent or higher for well over a year at this point.

#2 In November 2006, the official U.S. unemployment rate was just 4.5 percent.

#3 Most economists had been expecting the U.S. economy to add about 150,000 jobs in November.  Instead, it only added 39,000.

#4 In the United States today, there are over 15 million people who are officially considered to be unemployed for statistical purposes.  But everyone knows that the real number is even much larger than that.

#5 As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had been unemployed for half a year or longer.  Today, there are over 6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.

#6 The number of persons not in the labor force in the United States recently set another new all-time record.

#7 It now takes the average unemployed American over 33 weeks to find a job.

#8 When you throw in discouraged workers and underemployed workers, the real unemployment rate in the state of California is actually about 22 percent.

#9 In America today there are not nearly enough jobs for everyone.  In fact, there are now approximately 5 unemployed Americans for every single job opening.

#10 According to The New York Times, Americans that have been unemployed for five weeks or less are three times more likely to find a new job in the coming month than Americans that have been unemployed for over a year.

#11 The U.S. economy would need to create 235,120 new jobs a month to get the unemployment rate down to pre-recession levels by 2016.  Does anyone think that there is even a prayer that is going to happen?

#12 There are 9 million Americans that are working part-time for economic reasons.  In other words, those Americans would gladly take full-time jobs if they could get them, but all they have been able to find is part-time work.

#13 In 2009, total wages, median wages, and average wages all declined in the United States.

#14 As of the end of 2009, less than 12 million Americans worked in manufacturing.  The last time that less than 12 million Americans were employed in manufacturing was in 1941.

#15 The United States has lost at least 7.5 million jobs since the recession began.

#16 Today, only about 40 percent of Ford Motor Companys 178,000 workers are employed in North America, and a big percentage of those jobs are in Canada and Mexico.

#17 In 1959, manufacturing represented 28 percent of U.S. economic output.  In 2008, it represented 11.5 percent.

#18 Earlier this year, one poll found that 28% of all American households had at least one member that was looking for a full-time job.

#19 In the United States today, over 18,000 parking lot attendants have college degrees.

#20 The United States has lost a staggering 32 percent of its manufacturing jobs since the year 2000.

#21 As the employment situation continues to stagnate, millions of American families have decided to cut back on things such as insurance coverage.  For example, the percentage of American households that have life insurance coverage is at its lowest level in 50 years.

#22 Unless Congress acts, and there is no indication that is going to happen, approximately 2 million Americans will stop receiving unemployment checks over the next couple of months.

#23 A poll that was released by the Pew Research Center back in June discovered that an astounding 55 percent of the U.S. labor force has experienced either unemployment, a pay decrease, a reduction in hours or an involuntary move to part-time work since the economic downturn began.

#24 According to Richard McCormack, the United States has lost over 42,000 factories (and counting) since 2001.

#25 In the United States today, 317,000 waiters and waitresses have college degrees.

But this is what we get for creating the biggest debt bubble in the history of the world.  For decades we have been digging a deeper hole for ourselves by going into increasingly larger amounts of debt.  In America today, our entire economy is based on debt.  Even our money is debt.  We were fools if we ever thought this could go on forever. Just think about it.  Have you ever gone out and run up a bunch of debt?  It can be a lot of fun sitting behind the wheel of a new car, running your credit cards up to the limit and buying a beautiful big house that you cannot afford. But in the end what happens? It always catches up with you. Well, our collective debt is starting to catch up with us.  There is a sea of red ink on every level of American society.  It is only a matter of time before it destroys our economy. IF YOU THINK THAT THINGS ARE BAD NOW, JUST WAIT.  THINGS ARE GOING TO GET A WHOLE LOT WORSE.  A HORRIFIC ECONOMIC COLLAPSE IS COMING, AND IT IS GOING TO BE VERY, VERY PAINFUL.

The Economic Collapse:  24 more signs of economic decline in America

#1 On Monday, S&P altered its outlook on U.S. government debt from stable to negative ..at the rest of the world is losing faith in the U.S. dollar and in U.S. Treasuries.

#2 China has announced reducing their holdings of U.S. dollar

#3 .. panic dollar selling is setting in and U.S. dollar  in for a huge decline.

#4 The biggest bond fund in the world, PIMCO, is now shorting U.S. government bonds.

#5 Bad economy is causing ghost towns to appear all across the U.S..

#6 There are now about 7.25 million less jobs in America than when the recession began back in 2007.

#7 The average American family is having a really tough time -  Only 45.4% of Americans had a job during 2010.  .

#8 Only 66.8% of American men had a job last year- lowest level ever ..

#9 Avg CEO made 343 times more money than the average American

#10 Gas prices five dollars per gallon at gas stations.. $6 gas soon

#11 .. 12 months the average price of gasoline in the US has gone up by about 30%.

#12 Due to rising fuel prices, American Airlines lost a staggering $436 million during first qtr 2011.

#13 U.S. households now receiving more from the US govt than they are paying to the government in taxes.

#14  1 of 4 dollars that the U.S. govt borrows goes to pay the interest on the national debt.

#15 Total home mortgage debt in the United States is now about 5 times larger than it was just 20 years ago.

#16 Total credit card debt in u.s. more than 8 times larger than 30 yrs ago.

#17 Avg household debt in the United States has now reached a level of 136% of avg household income.  In China, avg household debt is only 17% of avg household income.

#18 Avg American spends approximately 23 percent .. on food and gas.

#19 .. 74 percent of u.s. said that they planned to slow down their spending

#20 59 percent u.s. receive money from the govt ..

#21 avg length of unemployment in the U.S. is now an all-time record 39 weeks.

#22 u.s. random acts of violence”…

#23  Americans are popping the gold teeth right out of their mouths / selling them to pawn shops.

 

#24 ..u.s. people gobbling up larger and larger amounts of antidepressants / other drugs.  .. ]

 

 

 

http://www.albertpeia.com 

 

 

Recession as the new normal For millions who exist on the fringes of the workforce, the recession has become permanent, no longer a crisis to endure so much as a reality to accept. (Washington Post) [ This, of course, needs sayin’ and thanks to the author of this article for so sayin’, albeit still somewhat euphemistically. After all, there are those with a track record of success in predicting such things (unlike bernanke et als) who’ve already called it and worse. Financial Crisis Phase II Is Ahead at Forbes Bert Dohmen ‘ In late 2007, I wrote the book Prelude To Meltdown, predicting the global crisis that occurred the following year.  I now see a similar confluence of events that warns of phase II of the global crisis… My work shows that “the new recession has started.”… Over the past 33 years, we have called the start of every recession, often on the exact month, or within one month, of the official start as determined one year later by the official arbiter of recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)… However, inflation is far understated for political reasons. Currently, the GDP deflator is 1.8%, which hardly reflects the true rise in prices. Therefore, what is counted as “growth,” is actually price increases. Actual inflation, according to free market economists who calculate inflation as it was done in 1980 before the politician re-engineered it, is now more than 11%. Using that to adjust GDP for inflation, would show that the economy is now in a very sharp contraction…’  U.S. GDP estimate revised downward  Adjustment, which followed news of lower-than-expected growth, is likely to fuel fears of a new recession. (Washington Post) [ Yet stocks rallied. They rally on the fake numbers, and rally even when the bad fake numbers are revised downward. Yeah … rally mode … party mode … commission mode on the way down … for the frauds on wall street, unlike the motto of the dreaded IRS of ‘get you now, or get you later’, their motto is ‘get you now, and get you later. Really quite outrageous!  The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed!  Train Reading: The Stock Market Is (Criminally) InsaneThe Wall Street Journal , Massive Understatement: Mohamed El-Erian’s reply to Frank Motek 1070am regarding particularly the 300+ point swing to the upside today, ‘(they’re) confused’! Indeed they are! But when you’re commissioning those manipulated computer programmed high-frequency-trade swings, churning and earning at lightning speed, such euphemistic criticism falls short with the impact of water off a duck’s back.      Moreover, how pathetic are they, those Pavlov dogs on wall street salivating at the mere prospect of a QE handout ultimately at taxpayer expense, in one form or another. Even more pathetic is the so-called ‘rally’ based on a purported rethink of fedspeak alleged  to be so filled with ‘ latent / hidden ‘ meaning of a form of QE welfare down the road. Those pathetic ‘titans of capitalism’; aka, the frauds of wall street.  Never mind that the QE’s have failed miserably and at great costs (inflation, financial, economic, etc.) and detriment to all but the frauds on wall street by way of their manipulated computer-programmed ( high frequency trading) commissioned churn-and-earn. Wall street’s rise has been among the causes of and concomitant to main street’s and america’s decline / demise. Remember, there is no modern day alchemy that spins worthless paper into gold except fraudulently for the frauds on wall street who’ve literally oftimes done exactly that; ‘cashing out’ for hard currency and gold, precious metals, at everyone else’s expense including main street. They’re just not that important and represent, like termites eating away at the nation’s foundation, a drag on the economy, the nation as one would expect from parasites such as they are. So what’s changed of significance? Nothing! Absolutely nothing; yet a manipulated computer-programmed ( high frequency trading bots ) churn-and-earn suckers’ rally based on desperation, bad news, fraud and b***s*** alone to suck suckers in and keep suckers sucked in. Horrific news on the economic front particularly since the anemic (revised downward – and I think much worse than reported) 1% GDP growth is all owing to hefty price increases / inflation, fudged and not reported accurately. This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits because there’s much worse to come! , ,  Famed economist predicts economic calamity in 2012. See the evidence.Newsmax  http://w3.newsmax.com/a/aftershockb/video.cfm?promo_code=CA79-1      50% unemployment, 90% stock market drop, 100% inflation. See the Evidence (Newsmax.com  ,       Bernanke - Man of Mystery: Dave's Daily at TheStreet  ‘Bernanke did what a lot of people expected him to do -- speak softly but carry a big printing press. After being down nearly 200 points the DJIA rallied to close higher by 135 points. Pundits shrugged embracing the idea if something was really wrong Bernanke would have acted; besides, bulls' reasoned stocks are cheap based on trailing PEs of around 12. Away from that was more crummy economic news with GDP printing at only 1% growth. This may be revised lower again like most other indicators of late…’  (Dave’s Daily:’.. The HAL 9000s have been doing business as HFTs (High Frequency Traders) launching many buy or sell programs using complex algorithms which can drive prices on indexes higher or lower in dramatic fashion. One of their great acts is called "quote stuffing". It's another illegal activity which the SEC hasn't quite figured out. It's as futile for them as the illegal fee-driven recent end-of-quarter price jam-job..’)   Economic / Financial Collapse Imminent – Stansberry  Investment Advisory http://www.albertpeia.com/stansberrysinvestmentadvisory.flv    Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011 Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012 Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the latest. U.S. Dollar will Decline Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010 and 2012).  Fed Economists Predict A 15 Year Bear Market For Stocks Aug 23rd, 2011 News (BusinessInsider)      Despite being glad that Apple has survived (though outlook now dimmed regardless of rhetoric and beyond the Jobs retirement), ‘american technology is horrendous and vastly overrated!’ I really mean it, and that’s reality, which speaks volumes about the pathetic state of the world  ,  Play It Again Sam: Dave's Daily  [ As always, Dave is spot-on as an astute, knowledgeable, seasoned veteran of the markets. ] ‘ …Thursday was another great show starring Jobless Claims, Warren Buffet, HAL 9000s, Steve Jobs and, of course, Da Boyz running the CRIMEX (COMEX and CME) on precious metals options expiration.The spin on Jobless Claims data was prior claims were adjusted higher making recent higher claims look not so bad especially when you add Verizon workers. Warren Buffett entered from stage left with a $5 billion investment in Bank of America giving him 6% interest tax-free (a "coddled" billionaire?) and making he and Berkshire a new TARP program. The HAL 9000s have been doing business as HFTs (High Frequency Traders) launching many buy or sell programs using complex algorithms which can drive prices on indexes higher or lower in dramatic fashion. One of their great acts is called "quote stuffing". It's another illegal activity which the SEC hasn't quite figured out. It's as futile for them as the illegal fee-driven recent end-of-quarter price jam-job. One of these actions was featured courtesy of our friends at Zero Hedge and depicted below as it occurred Thursday afternoon. The first chart features the quotes per second (NOTE: one instance exceeding 800 quotes per second). The next chart shows the market's simultaneous reaction. http://www.thestreet.com/tsc/daves/082511/image002.jpg  Steve Jobs sadly is retiring from his leading role as Apple CEO but the stock hardly budged given the products and brand are already well-known and his retirement was much anticipated. Last, but not least certainly, was the performance of Da Boyz production of gold price manipulation…’ Previous: Manipulated computer-programmed ( high frequency trading bots ) churn-and-earn suckers’ rally into the close based on desperation, fraud and b***s*** alone to suck suckers in and keep suckers sucked in!   Stocks up on government report (I consistently and here now again warn of fake reports / data) on durables far better than expectations / reality…100% better? I don’t think so! … Come on … sheer desperation at best! Steve Jobs resigns from Apple, Cook becomes CEO - SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Silicon Valley legend Steve Jobs on Wednesday resigned as chief executive of Apple Inc in a stunning move that ended his 14-year reign at the technology giant he co-founded i... [ Far more than just a ‘Silicon Valley legend’, Steve Jobs literally saved Apple from extinction … I’m truly glad he saved Apple, my first computer (1986 - apple IIc for word processing / data based records / forms / templates / data which I interfaced with an electric typewriter for letter quality) and for that all should be thankful. Apple is the Nasdaq (40% weighting) and quite more, that now was! That’s past tense. Steve Jobs goes out a big winner as indeed he should! Yet, make no mistake, as one might expect, his timing was impeccable inasmuch as without his uniquely inspired innovation, competition moving in, and particularly the coming debacle / crisis the worst of which lies ahead, things are not looking up, in and for pervasively corrupt / defacto bankrupt america particularly, euphemistically speaking. ]  End Of Cycle Smelling Like Dow 3K, Gold 3K  Forbes /  Bill Bonner  … ‘Our view [ the correct view ] is that the bear market began in January 2000. The feds fought it off with two huge extravaganzas of spending — the first beginning in 2001 the other after 2008. Stimulus does wonders for stock prices but it no longer works for the economy that sustains them. For every dollar that the Fed has put to work to fight the crisis since 2008, for example, it has produced only 80 cents worth of GDP. It didn’t work……that the recession of ’08-’09 in the US never actually ended……and that stocks will go down over the next 5-10 years until they finally hit a real bottom…’ 

 

 

http://www.albertpeia.com 

 

 

A win for Big Government  The response to Hurricane Irene refutes Tea Partyers who denounce government. (Washington Post) [ Ah, sweet Mr. Milbank. No more the champion of lost causes (ie., wobama the b for b***s***), he’s moved on to the larger, ‘indispensable aggregate’, viz., ‘big government itself’. Yes, it’s true that the people weren’t ‘katrinaed’, and the non-stop news coverage which as mainstream can certainly be lumped in here with ‘big government’; but it’s difficult to see what ‘big government’ really did or accomplished in mitigating the effects of this far ‘less than expectations’ category 1 hurricane / tropical storm. It is specious at best and dangerous at worse to be hailing ‘big government’ as the answer when ‘big government’ has proven to be an unmitigated disaster in and of itself. If only so-called ‘big government’ prosecuted (as they’re empowered) the big crimes rather than participate in and cover up those nation-debilitating, nation-destroying crimes as has become so typical, regardless of the administration or party.  Drudgereport: DOJ raids guitar factory... [ With unprosecuted securities fraud in the trillions, and my own experience with the ‘DOJ’ that has covered up serious RICO crimes, etc.,  http://albertpeia.com/fbimartinezcongallard.htm   http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf     http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm   , I find this somewhat incredulous in terms of priorities!] UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE...ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims '. With wobama et als, the jive-talking b***s*** never ends! N.Y. bumped from foreclosure panel Iowa’s attorney general says N.Y. official “actively worked to undermine” group’s efforts in foreclosure negotiation with banks. (Washington Post) [ Yeah! No surprise here! Yet new jersey’s ‘representative’ would have been equally disingenuous in corruptly carry out his / her duties, so ‘doody-full’ are they, from there!  Sen. Chuck Grassley  “It doesn’t make sense that an agency responsible for investigations would want to get rid of potential evidence…’ [ Oh but it does make sense Sen. Grassley:   Report: SEC lawyer exposed FBI informant (WP) [ Clearly, the sec liar (sic – lawyer) is one of those typically with a ‘pre or post’ arrangement, whether implicit or explicit; you know, that ubiquitous ‘bribe thing’ in pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt, fallen  america. Indeed, the scenario typifies that national drain / sinkhole new york (new york / new jersey metro) where, for example, FBI informants were routinely exposed by ‘italians’ in the new york d.a.’s office over the objection of the FBI, and were promptly ‘dispatched’/assassinated / hit by mafia / organized crime [ this was documented with authority in the book ‘Goombata: The Improbable Rise and Fall of John Gotti and His Gang’ Cummings / Volkman  ] Details of Obama’s jobs plan emerge (Washington Post) [  Oh come on! Too little, too late for ‘wobama the b’ (for b***s***), the eternal campaign(er) … he’s got a ‘good rap’ … that rapper ‘wobama the b’ (for b***s***).  Really! He’s a total embarrassment out there on the campaign trail; and just as much an embarrassment for those who turn out to see him … maybe he’s somewhat of an allure as in a freak show. He’s a total joke! To be finally talking jobs and things just before the election having broken previous campaign promises in his failed role as ‘bush failure 3’. Even his pension is undeserved so much a fraud is he! Black caucus: Tired of making excuses for Obama [ They are not alone! ] Washington Examiner | A key member of the Congressional Black Caucus says they don’t pressure President Obama because he is loved by black voters.  Obama ‘Takes More Vacations Than Any Human Being I’ve Ever Seen’ Fox News | “Here we have a country that really is going to hell in a handbasket.” Bus Tour Bust: Obama’s Approval Plummets Back Into 30s, Says Gallup CNS News | Obama’s politically charged but taxpayer funded bus tour through the Midwest turned into a bust yesterday. Disapproval of Congress Hits All Time High of 84%

Drudgereport: BLACK CAUCUS ON OBAMA: 'WE'RE GETTING TIRED' [ Not as tired of wobama’s b***s*** / excuses as the ‘White Caucus’ and any other Caucus – but, don’t be taken in by their b***s***; they’ll ‘back the black’ every time, regardless!  ]New low of 26% approve of Obama on economy...
Inflation builds...
FOOD PRICES RISING...
UNEMPLOYMENT UP...
OBAMA TO LAY OUT JOBS PLAN -- AFTER VACATION...
'Takes More Vacations Than Any Human Being I've Ever Seen'...
Commiserates with jobless, then off to the Vineyard...

 

Even that italian, belafonte, isn’t buying ‘wobama brand(ed)’:

 

Drudgereport: HARRY BELAFONTE: Obama 'has failed'...
NOONAN: 'HE IS A LOSER'...  
FARRAKHAN: 'THAT'S A MURDERER IN THE WHITE HOUSE'...      

Most importantly, realize that if wobama’s actions had not belied his words/campaign promises, the nation’s position, though still ominous, would have been substantially improved.

 

 

 

http://www.albertpeia.com 



Dick Cheneys self-serving memoir  REVIEW | In My Time serves mainly to reaffirm the former vice presidents lack of regrets. (Washington Post) [ Yes. Lack of regrets. That is exactly what youd expect from an unconflicted psychopath as war criminal cheney most certainly is. The unassuming cheney, barely noticeable in his prior manifestations in one form / position or another, in trying so desperately to imprint himself on the administration of fellow war criminal and moron bush, has been nothing short of disasterous for the world and this country particularly. Clearly, the meds cheneys had to consistently take have shaken up / messed up his body / brain chemistry to the point where cheneys nothing less than psychotic in the most negative sense. Indeed, his change  from somewhat balanced to psychopathic was not lost on former supporter / endorser Gerald Ford who commented publicly, albeit euphemistically, on how mean cheney had become. Such is the way / demeanor of a psychopath upon that defining break from sanity. For those soldiers who were called upon to carry out his sociopathic obsessions, his message to them in explaining his 5 deferments when his nation called on him was that he had better, more important things to do (school deferments). Psychopath that cheney is, and nothing more, who has cost this world and nation immeasurably, cheney is indeed the proverbial dead man walking.  Dick Cheney: One Year As a Walking Zombie Paul Joseph Watson & Alex Jones | Former VP marks anniversary as member of the living dead.  10 Indications The United States Is A Dictatorship    http://www.activistpost.com/2011/05/10-indications-united-states-is.html   8. Torture: Torture has long been a tactic used by America. In fact it runs the leading school on its methods.  The School of the Americas has been responsible for training Latin American dictators and their thugs on how to intimidate the local population and rule with an iron fist.  However, the torture debate has hit mainstream media in a serious discussion about its effectiveness, especially following the assassination of Osama bin Laden.  Aside from the despicable morals involved, torture doesnt work for intelligence gathering, according to experts.  Furthermore, the legalization of torture was what really brought the dreaded Russian secret police out into the open.  When such a declaration is made, it is literally a recruiting strategy to find the criminals and sadists who would love to be part of such a system.  Torture is not normal work for normal people; it is the work of psychopaths such as Dick Cheney who loves the tactic of waterboarding so much that he has stated it should be brought back and used more widely.  No nation that uses torture to obtain confessions can be called legitimate. It is only used as a tool of intimidation and oppression by totalitarian regimes.

For a people to be free, they must first be honest with themselves, their government, and the world at large. History is filled with stories of free nations that fell under the spell cast by their governments who exploited the threat of terror

1. Rule by force, not by law: This is where it all begins; when the legal framework that serves to define a country and its behavior is dismantled and intimidation tactics take over.  In the most extreme case, drone bombings and assassinations have begun of non-citizens, as well as U.S. citizens, leading only to a debate over whether U.S. citizens should be stripped of citizenship before assassination.  Governmental assassinations are in complete opposition to the laws of America and all international laws and agreements.  In the last week we have also seen the official elimination of the 4th Amendment in Indiana, which is a clear precedent-setting ruling to say that the State now believes that it owns the property and person of its citizens.  As a result, the militarized police have been granted unlimited access, which will only cause an escalation in cases of police brutality and misconduct.  This is yet another addition to the precedent set by TSA groping and sexual harassment in airports, Child Protective Services kidnapping children of activists in pro-liberty causes, public school surveillance, and the lawless detention of activists who videotape the police.  All areas of society are now ruled top-down through state legislation adopted to justify federal grants that have installed a police state apparatus in America.  And these federal agencies such as the TSA actually believe they rule supreme over the states.  We now live in a country where CIA abductions, overseas detention, torture and assassinations can be carried out against Americans without due process and without recourse if later cleared.  Consequently, an atmosphere has been created where the government is permitted to break countless laws, like warrantless GPS tracking of activists by the FBI, while average citizens are guilty of pre-crimes.  The increase in executive power under the aegis of National Security is our greatest threat and has led to all that follows.

2. Crushing peaceful protest: Despite the current mission to defend protesters living in dictatorships overseas, when George Bush brought free speech zones to America it effectively spelled the end of peaceful, lawful street protest.  Now the full force of brutality and surveillance has been unleashed upon the very people intent in stopping it through peaceful means.  It is as sure a sign as any about totalitarian intentions, when anti-war activists have become one of the targets.  The activist is beginning to equal terrorist in the all-seeing eye of the State, and any street gathering is a sure sign to let loose all of the riot weapons that were formerly used against insurgents on foreign battlefields.  One look at the G20 protest in Pittsburgh,  a recent Illinois University event, and the ongoing travesty of the torture and incarceration of Bradley Manning, and we can begin to see through the propaganda of White House officials when they talk about terrible dictators in other nations crushing dissent.

3. Checkpoints: The slow acclimation of the populace to military-style checkpoints began first as border control operations up to 100 miles inland in what the ACLU calls the Constitution Free Zone.  However, this has rather quickly morphed into local traffic stops across the country for unsavory characters such as those targeted by the Amber Alert system and DUI checkpoints.   Though apparently well meaning, we are now far beyond even loosely suspected criminal activity, as VIPR teams have been introduced to take over public transportation and events.  The TSA tyranny has hit the streets of America, now forming a de facto internal passport system straight out of the totalitarian playbook.  The expanding checkpoint system dovetails with new initiatives such as the No Ride List proposal of Chuck Shumer, building upon the No Fly List already in place.  These no-travel lists are extrajudicial, secret, and form a guilty-until-proven innocent framework that subverts freedom instead of protecting it.  Incidentally, this element of constant suspicion is exactly what leads to a citizen spy network.

4. Citizen spy network: Dictatorships know how difficult it is to rule over large populations with only the relatively small numbers of military and police. Despite the lessons of terror created by citizen surveillance that the East German Stasi files left us to examine, just such a network has been openly introduced to present-day America and now its even more high-tech and populated.  Secret black budget projects organized through the NSA like Perfect Citizen is just one among many.  Our head of Homeland Security, Janet Napolitano in partnership with retailer Wal-Mart kicked off the See Something, Say Something program, which goes beyond the already high-tech surveillance apparatus of the NSA and turns each of us into an unpaid employee of the police state.  Similarly, the web of cameras and data mining is far too massive for even the well-funded NSA, but with gadgets at our disposal we can now download apps to enable spying on our neighbors.  Most dangerous of all, though, is new legislation introduced by Peter King that enshrines Janet Napolitanos program and would provide immunity for accusers acting in good faith while reporting suspicious activities.  This is guaranteed to lead to false arrests and disappearances, just as it has on every occasion throughout history when a societys fear becomes self-directed.

5. Executive Orders: This is means by which a dictator can come to power in the United States, despite a framework of checks and balances.  Any time a country has centralized its power to the executive branch by erasing the checks and balances of separate legislative and judicial bodies, the result has been dictatorship.  And this normally happens when national security is threatened.  The Constitution is clear, however: only the legislature (Congress) can make laws.  Yet, the use of Executive Orders has increased, beginning with President Clinton who came under fire for his abuse of this power, becoming one of only two presidents (the other was Trumans E.O. 12954) to have an Executive Order struck down by the courts.   His successors seem only to have been encouraged. Clinton issued 14, George W. issued over 60, and Obama is at 26 with many more to be expected if he wins a second term. Among the most egregious of Obamas orders is the ability to hold detainees indefinitely even after a court has found them not guilty.  Executive Orders also form the basis for control over regulatory agencies, which then impose the directives.  While it seems multi-layered with potential checks and balances, all directives can now be issued top-down in dictatorial fashion. 

6. Control of regulatory agencies: This is the more insidious and, ultimately, dangerous tactic used by dictatorships.  Dictatorship through regulation invades every facet of society without relying only upon overt violence.  As mentioned above, only the legislature can make laws.  However, the legislature has created regulatory bodies which make de facto laws through violations that rob us of freedom.  There is no clearer example at the moment than the FDA, which has brought in near-total food control.  The FDA is working in concert with a global agenda being foisted upon us through the Codex Alimentarius commission in Europe which essentially renders anything healthy as toxic, and all that is toxic as healthy.   Regulatory agencies in the United States have engendered a system where the corporate-government revolving door leads to corruption and consolidation not free markets.  The current regulations are opposed to the principles of freedom and independence, and favor only those in positions to make money from more control; so more control and less freedom is what we can expect under these federal directives controlling the states.

7. President declares war unilaterally: Despite the parade of lies that led to wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, it pales in comparison with the new war in Libya and other interventions and sanctions throughout the Middle East and North Africa.  Through Executive Orders, outlined above, the President can declare war so long as there is a resolution passed by Congress.  This has been dispensed with through Obamas illegal wars, and it appears that Congress could go even further by ceding its power completely to the president.  The disregard for Congressional approval is already dictatorial, but if this last step is taken we will effectively be living in a permanent state of war tantamount to WWIII that will be controlled at the sole discretion of the current and future presidents.  This unilateral power to drag nations into war without checks and balances is a hallmark of dictatorships where entire countries are swept along purely by the ideology of their leader. As Ron Paul and Lew Rockwell have stated, We have a dictatorship when it comes to foreign policy.  With the latest development, it is actually a dictatorship when it comes to domestic policy as well, since Americas espionage network has turned inward, and this new presidential power would not be limited to overseas actions.

8. (supra)

9. Forced labor camps (gulags): This is when we know that a totalitarian society has arrived in full and our society is run completely by coercion.  As Naomi Wolf has illustrated, With its jails in Iraq and Afghanistan, and, of course, Guantánamo in Cuba, where detainees are abused, and kept indefinitely without trial and without access to the due process of the law, America certainly has its gulag now.  Additionally, a silent gulag has already been created inside America, starting with the nations prisoners who are increasingly locked up within a for-profit prison-industrial system that makes money both on the construction of prisons as well as the cheap labor force.  The Defense Department itself pays prisoners 23 cents per hour to build its weapons systems, which is clearly a type of slave labor.  One might immediately argue that there is a huge difference between real prisoners and innocent people swept off the streets as they were in Stalinist Russia, for example, or in modern day North Korea and China.  That is to presume, however, that everyone in prison is guilty; and, if they are, that the crimes which have sent them there really constitute offenses worthy of prison sentences.   America has the worlds largest prison population and the highest incarceration rate precisely because nearly everything is a jail-time crime, and there is money to be made by the growing corporate prison system.  The War on Drugs alone has led to a disproportionate number of inmates for non-violent offenses among the already 2.4 million in jail and the 5 million on probation.  With the economy imploding, even debtors prisons have made a comeback.  Although FEMA camps10 Indications The United States Is A Dictatorship  are still relegated to fringe conspiracy theory, we should be wary of the potential endgame for such a proven system of oppression.  Through Continuity of Government, national emergency directives would openly suspend the Constitution and could possibly lead once again to internment camps in America.

10. Control over all communications (propaganda):  Once the physical framework of dictatorial control has been set up, then the justification for its continued presence can commence.  The type of high-tech control grid now put into place in The United States to this point has only been explored in works of fiction such as 198410 Indications The United States Is A Dictatorship  , which has led Paul Craig Roberts to draw a correct parallel.  A public emergency announcement system has in fact been in place since the 50s, whereby the president can interrupt television and radio to deliver critical messages.  However, this has been recently expanded as the FCC voted to mandate (PDF) the first-ever Presidential alert to be aired across the United States on the Nations Emergency Alert System (EAS),   Now, with the arrival of the trackable smartphone that can be hijacked to bring government messages (emergency or not) we find ourselves willing participants in a scenario reaching far beyond 1984.  Using the bin Laden assassination and the threat of guaranteed reprisal, the government has announced that the president will break into these private networks to carry PLAN government messages and warnings; and there is no opt-out. At the same time, we have seen the buildup in rhetoric leading toward Internet control.  As always, an unsavory element of society (pirating) has been used as one of the pretexts to introduce government control over private industry, while cybersecurity lays claim to total control over the infrastructure for national emergencies.  Ideologically, Obama advisor, Cass Sunstein, has proposed a fairness doctrine for the Internet that would enable a government overlay on private websites that would offer counter opinions to anti-establishment content.  We are approaching a situation worse than China, where both mental intrusion via propaganda and physical intrusion via systems control are merging.  It is not comforting to know, also, that the president made a shocking claim recently that he can censor unclassified documents.  There is clearly a concerted effort to take over all forms of information, permitting the government to alter it or censor it before consumption by its citizens.  In any other country we would call this a dictatorship.

It would appear that the United States should be a called a dictatorship based on the above criteria. Once the atmosphere is established, average participants need not be part of a conspiracy, as they tend to unquestioningly go with the flow.  However, we must acknowledge that the U.S. is in a vastly different position than totalitarian regimes of the past, as well as her contemporaries. America has a history that is built upon the foundation of resistance to dictators.  This memory needs to be invoked by following the protections outlined in our founding documents, particularly the power of the states to resist Federal tyranny.  The protections therein can be restored once we have the courage to admit how much freedom we have lost, then refuse to succumb to a fear-based perception of reality.  Only then will Liberty, Love and Peace prevail!

 

 

http://www.albertpeia.com 

 

 

Stocks rise amid global optimism Bank of America and JP Morgan rallied at least 2.1 percent, following gains in European banks. (Washington Post) [The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed!  Train Reading: The Stock Market Is (Criminally) InsaneThe Wall Street Journal , What to Expect Next From the Markets at Minyanville  Jeffrey Cooper Aug 29, 2011  Conclusion: It looks like a program was run using the least amount of dollars to goose the indices by focusing on some big cap names like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Baidu (BIDU), IBM (IBM), and Caterpillar (CAT) on Friday. That is why the market is so dangerous here…‘  Arguments for Being in the Crash Camp   Conor Sen  Aug 29, 2011 If you want to take risk, only own things you're willing to own in a down 20-30% tape, because that's what we could see over the next month...  Scandal scarred commerce dept. report on consumer spending with anemic income figures (typically as always unworthy of belief as unbelievable anything the government says in their desperation) spurs suckers rally (along with some short covering) to suck suckers in and keep suckers sucked in.  Massive Understatement: Mohamed El-Erians reply to Frank Motek 1070am regarding particularly the 300+ point swing to the upside today, (theyre) confused! Indeed they are! But when youre commissioning those manipulated computer programmed high-frequency-trade swings, churning and earning at lightning speed, such euphemistic criticism falls short with the impact of water off a ducks back.      Moreover, how pathetic are they, those Pavlov dogs on wall street salivating at the mere prospect of a QE handout ultimately at taxpayer expense, in one form or another. Even more pathetic is the so-called ‘rally’ based on a purported rethink of fedspeak alleged  to be so filled with ‘ latent / hidden ‘ meaning of a form of QE welfare down the road. Those pathetic ‘titans of capitalism’; aka, the frauds of wall street.  Never mind that the QE’s have failed miserably and at great costs (inflation, financial, economic, etc.) and detriment to all but the frauds on wall street by way of their manipulated computer-programmed ( high frequency trading) commissioned churn-and-earn. Wall street’s rise has been among the causes of and comcomitant to america’s decline / demise. Remember, there is no modern day alchemy that spins worthless paper into gold except fraudulently for the frauds on wall street whove literally oftimes done exactly that; cashing out for hard currency and gold, precious metals, at everyone elses expense including main street. Theyre just not that important and represent, like termites eating away at the nations foundation, a drag on the economy, the nation as one would expect from parasites such as they are. So what’s changed of significance? Nothing! Absolutely nothing; yet a manipulated computer-programmed ( high frequency trading bots ) churn-and-earn suckers’ rally based on desperation, bad news, fraud and b***s*** alone to suck suckers in and keep suckers sucked in. Horrific news on the economic front particularly since the anemic (revised downward – and I think much worse than reported) 1% GDP growth is all owing to hefty price increases / inflation, fudged and not reported accurately. Financial Crisis Phase II Is Ahead at Forbes Bert Dohmen  In late 2007, I wrote the book Prelude To Meltdown, predicting the global crisis that occurred the following year.  I now see a similar confluence of events that warns of phase II of the global crisis My work shows that the new recession has started.”… Over the past 33 years, we have called the start of every recession, often on the exact month, or within one month, of the official start as determined one year later by the official arbiter of recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) However, inflation is far understated for political reasons. Currently, the GDP deflator is 1.8%, which hardly reflects the true rise in prices. Therefore, what is counted as growth, is actually price increases. Actual inflation, according to free market economists who calculate inflation as it was done in 1980 before the politician re-engineered it, is now more than 11%. Using that to adjust GDP for inflation, would show that the economy is now in a very sharp contraction…’  This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits because theres much worse to come! ,  Despite being glad that Apple has survived (though outlook now dimmed regardless of rhetoric and beyond the Jobs retirement), ‘american technology is horrendous and vastly overrated!’ I really mean it, and that’s reality, which speaks volumes about the pathetic state of the world ,  Famed economist predicts economic calamity in 2012. See the evidence.Newsmax  http://w3.newsmax.com/a/aftershockb/video.cfm?promo_code=CA79-1      50% unemployment, 90% stock market drop, 100% inflation. See the Evidence (Newsmax.com  ,       Bernanke - Man of Mystery: Dave's Daily at TheStreet  Bernanke did what a lot of people expected him to do -- speak softly but carry a big printing press. After being down nearly 200 points the DJIA rallied to close higher by 135 points. Pundits shrugged embracing the idea if something was really wrong Bernanke would have acted; besides, bulls' reasoned stocks are cheap based on trailing PEs of around 12. Away from that was more crummy economic news with GDP printing at only 1% growth. This may be revised lower again like most other indicators of late…’  (Daves Daily:.. The HAL 9000s have been doing business as HFTs (High Frequency Traders) launching many buy or sell programs using complex algorithms which can drive prices on indexes higher or lower in dramatic fashion. One of their great acts is called "quote stuffing". It's another illegal activity which the SEC hasn't quite figured out. It's as futile for them as the illegal fee-driven recent end-of-quarter price jam-job..)   Economic / Financial Collapse Imminent Stansberry  Investment Advisory http://www.albertpeia.com/stansberrysinvestmentadvisory.flv    Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011 Dow will Fall to 3,800 4,500 by 2012 Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the latest. U.S. Dollar will Decline Housing will Decline by 40 60% from Todays Levels Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010 and 2012).  Fed Economists Predict A 15 Year Bear Market For Stocks Aug 23rd, 2011 News

 

 

 

http://www.albertpeia.com 

 

 

Lewis: What would MLK say to Obama?  (Washington Post) [ He’d say not color of skin, but that ‘content of character thing’ should at least start at the DOJ under fellow black Holder. I mean, who would take them seriously if it didn’t!  UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE...ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims '.    White House turns attention to blacks Focus comes amid a growing concern that economic conditions might hamper black voter turnout. (Washington Post) [ As if we couldn’t see that coming. Yet, the ‘make-work, make-shift’ jobs already extant in the federal, state, local ‘public service’ sectors along with the otherwise unemployable at, ie., the u.s. postal service, etc., are uneconomic and overly costly (Drudgereport: Obama Economists Admit: 'Stimulus' Cost $278,000 per Job... ) at best and downright wasteful at worst, the latter being the most prevalent scenario. Moreover, despite the rhetoric, blacks will always ‘back the black’. No criteria. No analysis. ‘Back the black’ their despoiling cry. I think wobama and holder are probably more concerned with making sure the ‘black panthers’ are in full force at the polls to intimidate white voters, which racism they’ve given ‘carte blanche’, protection from prosecution … UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE...ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims '. With wobama et als, the jive-talking b***s*** never ends!     Robinson: King’s dream remains unrealized  (Washington Post) [ Yeah! That ‘content of their character’ thing’s a b***ch to live up to … just don’t measure up! What’s a white person to do, especially when black atty. General Holder with Obama’s tacit approval is racist himself (themselves)  UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE...ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims '. Drudgereport: 'Mob' beatings at WI state fair...
'Hundreds of young black people beating white people'... [ Typical…  ]
Fairgoers 'pulled out of cars'...
'They were just going after white people'...
Heightened security...

[ .. (the following incident is my personal experience: black perps, white victims)‘.. while walking through Military Park (a sliver of a “park” - more a pedestrian thoroughfare/cement walks) in newark, new jersey on the way to the bank during lunch hour, I heard the clearly audible screams/cries of what turned out to be an old lady on the ground with blood streaming from her mouth. I ran toward the sound of the cries, the source of which I could not see because there were so many people in and about this thoroughfare so as to block any vision of the source of the cries. When I came to the woman, on the ground, blood streaming from her mouth, I asked what happened, to which she responded she had been hit in the mouth and knocked to the ground, her purse stolen/put inside her shopping bag, and she pointed out the criminal casually now walking across the main street. Nobody stopped to help her, many having passed her by. I slammed the thug to the ground so hard that, in light of all the blood and confusion (limbic system / adrenalin flow) I thought I had been stabbed (the blood was from his elbows hitting the pavement so hard - no one helped / a crowd gathered / an undercover cop happened along). When I testified at the Grand Jury Proceeding I made sure his threat on my life was set forth in prima facie fashion so as to maximize the DA’s position with both felonies ( he went to prison – pled out ). The other case I wrote about here ( This was included on my website in the Psychology forum discussion of ‘bystander effect’ / diffusion of responsibility. ) - Having had occasion to have run down a mugger in newark, n.j. who apparently had followed a girl from the bank on her way to the bursar to pay tuition, though in pretty good shape, I was astounded by how totally exhausting such a pursuit was, how much like rubber my arms were when I traded punches with the perpetrator, and truth be told, if I had a flashlight on my belt, I have little doubt that I would have probably used it to subdue the perp (a police officer here in California was the object of intense criticism for having used a flashlight to subdue a criminal after a long chase so I included that here) . The girl was not that seriously injured, did get her pocketbook and tuition back, and the criminal went to jail (where they belong). The other thing about such a pursuit that amazed me was that no one else assisted the girl or me despite being in a position to do so. I was also mugged by 4 blacks and 2 hispanics in an incident here in Los Angeles, CA. But, to be fair and balanced, the RICO litigation involves those uncivilized who consider themselves ‘whites’ http://albertpeia.com/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf  (predominantly but not exclusively jews / romans-italians / mobsters / government slugs). ]  N.Y. bumped from foreclosure panel Iowa’s attorney general says N.Y. official “actively worked to undermine” group’s efforts in foreclosure negotiation with banks. (Washington Post) [ Yeah! No surprise here! Yet new jersey’s ‘representative’ would have been equally disingenuous in corruptly carry out his / her duties, so ‘doody-full’ are they, from there!  Sen. Chuck Grassley  “It doesn’t make sense that an agency responsible for investigations would want to get rid of potential evidence…’ [ Oh but it does make sense Sen. Grassley:   Report: SEC lawyer exposed FBI informant (WP) [ Clearly, the sec liar (sic – lawyer) is one of those typically with a ‘pre or post’ arrangement, whether implicit or explicit; you know, that ubiquitous ‘bribe thing’ in pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt, fallen  america. Indeed, the scenario typifies that national drain / sinkhole new york (new york / new jersey metro) where, for example, FBI informants were routinely exposed by ‘italians’ in the new york d.a.’s office over the objection of the FBI, and were promptly ‘dispatched’/assassinated / hit by mafia / organized crime [ this was documented with authority in the book ‘Goombata: The Improbable Rise and Fall of John Gotti and His Gang’ Cummings / Volkman  ]

 

 

http://www.albertpeia.com 

 

 

Obama cant win  NATOs success in Libya proves that no good Obama .. goes unpunished. (Washington Post) [ Yeah! I think hes correct, using most of his words: Obama cant win  NATOs success in Libya proves that no good Obama .. goes unpunished. I mean come on, with ie., war crimes nation israel and despotic saudi arabia unscathed; not to mention the defacto bankruptcy of all members of the nato alliance and americas particularly among their war crimes, whos kidding whom? Yes, its true obama / nato cant win while theyre unequivocally losing!  Saying otherwise no longer means its true!  Poll puts Obama in dead heat with 4 GOP contenders (Washington Post) [ Wow! I dont know about that seems hard to reconcile that poll with wobamas record low approval ratings consonant with wobamas record low performance consonant with the nations record low prospects in large part owing to wobamas non-performance by deviating from campaign promises; and hence, his consequent consummate performance as bush failure 3.  Unions angry over Postal Service cuts They said any move to break labor contracts to lay off 120,000 would hurt the already ailing movement. (Washington Post) [ I reiterate my call for the well managed, efficient, and reliable company, UPS to take over the operation of the poorly managed, inefficient, and unreliable USPS. Postal Service seeking 20 percent staff cut EXCLUSIVE | In cost-cutting bid, USPS also proposes withdrawing employees from existing health and retirement plans and creating its own benefit programs. Congress would need to sign off. (Washington Post) [ I think its a great idea. Indeed, 50% would be substantially better. Even better yet, UPS should take over their entire operation. After all, UPS is well managed and efficient; and also, very reliable. On the other hand, the USPS is poorly managed, inefficient, and very unreliable: 
October 15, 2010 (*see infra {ultimately delivered by UPS})

                       ----------

 

*The foregoing and as indicated therein was previously send 9-14-10 but delivery confirmation was flawed as set forth below and my inquiries to the u.s. postal service rebuffed (I believe tampered with inasmuch as your office could not locate same). This cover letter (9-13-10) is on the 3 disks with navigable hyperlinks to the subject files for ease of reference, including the files in the RICO action as indicated. (10-15-10) I spoke with Rose, FBI, ADIC Secretary, who indicates once again that your office has not received the aforesaid and which can reasonably be presumed to have been tampered with, and hence, a violation of the federal statute concerning same. (Ultimately delivered by UPS) ]Report: DOJ investigating S&P's mortgage securities ratings Associated Press The Justice Department is investigating whether the agency improperly rated dozens of mortgage securities in the years leading up to the financial crisis. (Washington Post) [ There you go the retaliation the long awaited payback (quid pro quo witheld) for long overdue downgrade. They should be investigating themselves, the SEC ( SEC destroyed documents, senator says ), among numerous other fraudulent, illegal schemes, activities. 3 Top Crooks Still Roaming Free After the Economic Crash Wall St. Cheat Sheet  The global economy and stock markets took a nose dive in 2008. But that hasnt stopped some of the biggest masterminds from escaping a day of luxury…’ The "Crimes" That Wrecked The Markets  Forbes / Lenzner  ,  SEC accused of destroying files Former agency official says SEC violated federal law by destroying records of enforcement cases in which it decided not to file charges. (Washington Post) [ Duh, ya think? The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed!     SEC destroyed documents, senator says 17 Aug 2011 The Securities and Exchange Commission may have destroyed documents and compromised enforcement case ...   Grassley: Agency may have got rid of Goldman, Madoff documents   Ronald D. Orol, MarketWatch WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) The Securities and Exchange Commission may have destroyed documents and compromised enforcement cases involving activity at large banks and hedge funds during the height of the financial crisis in 2008, according to allegations made by a lawmaker on Wednesday. From what Ive seen, it looks as if the SEC might have sanctioned some level of case-related document destruction, said Sen. Chuck Grassley, Republican of Iowa, in a letter to the agencys chairman, Mary Schapiro. Sen. Chuck Grassley  It doesnt make sense that an agency responsible for investigations would want to get rid of potential evidence. If these charges are true, the agency needs to explain why it destroyed documents, how many documents it destroyed over what timeframe, and to what extent its actions were consistent with the law. Agency staff destroyed over 9,000 files related to preliminary agency investigations, according to a letter sent in July to Grassley, the top Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee, and obtained by MarketWatch. The allegations were made by SEC enforcement attorney, Darcy Flynn, in a letter to Grassley. Flynn is a current employee, and according to the letter, received a bonus for his past years work. Flynn alleges the SEC destroyed files related to matters being examined in important cases such as Bernard Madoff and a $50 billion Ponzi scheme he operated as well as an investigation involving Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS +0.33%   trading in American International Group credit-default swaps in 2009. Flynn also alleged that the agency destroyed documents and information collected for preliminary investigations at Wells Fargo & Co. WFC +1.34% , Bank of America Corp. BAC +0.81% , Citigroup C +0.13%  , Credit Suisse CS +0.38%  , Deutsche Bank DB +0.79%  Morgan Stanley MS -0.06%  and the now-bankrupt Lehman Brothers. The letter goes into particular detail about Deutsche Bank, the former employer of current SEC enforcement chief Robert Khuzami as well as former enforcement chiefs Gary Lynch and Richard Walker…’ Sen. Chuck Grassley  It doesnt make sense that an agency responsible for investigations would want to get rid of potential evidence…’ [ Oh but it does make sense Sen. Grassley:   Report: SEC lawyer exposed FBI informant (WP) [ Clearly, the sec liar (sic lawyer) is one of those typically with a pre or post arrangement, whether implicit or explicit; you know, that ubiquitous bribe thing in pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt, fallen  america. Indeed, the scenario typifies that national drain / sinkhole new york (new york / new jersey metro) where, for example, FBI informants were routinely exposed by italians in the new york d.a.s office over the objection of the FBI, and were promptly dispatched/assassinated / hit by mafia / organized crime [ this was documented with authority in the book Goombata: The Improbable Rise and Fall of John Gotti and His Gang Cummings / Volkman  ] Train Reading: The Stock Market Is Insane The Wall Street Journal ,   Welcome To The New Bear Market For Stocks  Forbes / Suttmeier ,  Dow/Gold Ratio Lowest Since 1987 Crash   Forbes /  Adrian Ash  ,   Ignore Buffett's Advice, Don't Buy Stocks Forbes /  Dohmen , The "Crimes" That Wrecked The Markets  Forbes / Lenzner  ,  Tech Leading Market Lower The Wall Street Journal  ,  Banks closed in Fla, Ga, Ill; 2011 total is 68   ,   No Recession Coming ... It's Already Here  Previous:8-18-11 Stocks rally off lows to suck suckers in and keep suckers sucked in on bad news (Jobless Claims, Inflation Rise More Than Expected CNBC) , fraud ( SEC destroyed documents, senator says    Crimes Wrecked The Markets    ), and b***s*** alone!  MKM Bracing For SPY To Drop 8% More; Nasdaq Nearing August Lows Barrons.com,  WHY NEW LOWS ARE LIKELY  8-18-11 Maierhofer, Is It 2008 Again? Looking at the Summer Crash of 2011 Gayed A real bear market has begun …’ ,  Abandon Ship?[The USS Titanic] Yes, Because of These 5 Bearish Icebergs ... McGill ,  There's A Recession Coming According To The Data at Forbes  ,  HP, Dell hammered as tech-spending outlook darkens   JDSU, NetApp, disappointing figures, shares hit hard in after-hours trade   Dell braces investors for a bumpy road Dell makes a case on why it can better weather an upcoming storm  ,   S&P says sell Google's shares after Motorola deal  ,  STOCKS FALL AFTER FLOOD OF BAD NEWS: Here's What You Need To Know  Joe Weisenthal ,   Stocks Slip On Concern Over Europe's Debt, U.S. Data  ,  Watch Out: 2011 Looks A Lot Like The Market Top In 2007 Sean Hanlon Take A Lesson From 2007 And Sell Stocks Now at Forbes, [video] Trader: We Could Test 1120 Lows at TheStreet.com   In a Downtrend, Sell a Rally (Daily FX)     Latest: Economist Who Predicted Market Crash Warns of 2012 Aftershock. See More Here.    Famed economist predicts economic calamity in 2012. See the evidence.Newsmax http://w3.newsmax.com/a/aftershockb/video.cfm?promo_code=CA79-1      50% unemployment, 90% stock market drop, 100% inflation. See the Evidence (Newsmax.com)   Five Reason Stocks Are Crashing, Tips to Prepare for Meltdown (Moneynews) Unthinkable Poised to Happen on Wall Street. See Disturbing Charts. (Newsmax.com)  US Recession Is Guaranteed: Expert CNBC.com 

SHARE YOUR OPINION ON THE DEBT LIMIT
Dear Congresswoman Roybal-Allard:

The following is my comment to an LA Times article regarding a Justice Department cover-up! As for your inquiry, all I think about day and night is a long overdue resolution to the RICO litigation as set forth therein:

ATF Chief Melson:Justice Department trying to shield officials (LATimes) Serrano

 

I believe him!

 I truly empathize with the ATF in terms of government cover-ups, notably by even the DOJ. You’ll recognize some familiar names (ie., Alito, Trump, Freeh (Louis Freeh now has dual citizenship with Italy), and some familiar crimes (ie., drug money laundering, etc. – real cash cow for gov’t ops, bribes, etc.). [Did you know this about the following ATF Agents who were probably viewed as loose ends: Steve Willis, Robert Williams, Todd McKeahan & Conway LeBleu:   Died February 28, 1993 by gunfire at Waco. All four were examined by a pathologist and died from identical wounds to the left temple. All four had been body guards for Bill Clinton, three while campaigning for President and when he was Governor of Arkansas.They also were the ONLY 4 BATF agents killed at Waco. ]

 

 

 

Heres some real, complicit cover-up / fraud on the part of the federal government, et als:

 

October 15, 2010 (*see infra {ultimately delivered by UPS})

 

 

Steven M. Martinez, Assistant Director In Charge
Federal Bureau of Investigation, USDOJ
11000 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 1700

Los Angeles, CA 90024

 

 

Dear Sir:

 

I enclose herewith 3 copies of the within DVD rom autorun disk (which will open in your computers browser) as per your offices request as made this day (the disk and contents have been scanned by Avast, McAfee, and Norton which Ive installed on my computer to prevent viral attacks / infection and are without threat). I also include 1 copy of the DVD as filed with the subject court as referenced therein (which files are also included on the aforesaid 3 disks in a separate folder named 112208opocoan). The (civil) RICO action (as youre aware, the RICO Act is a criminal statute which provides a civil remedy, including treble damages and attorney fees, as an incentive for private prosecution of said claims probably owing to the fact that the USDOJ seems somewhat overwhelmed and in need of such assistance given the seriousness and prevalence of said violations of law which have a corrupting influence on the process, and which corruption is pervasive). A grievance complaint against Coan was also filed concurrently with the subject action and held in abeyance pending resolution of the action which was illegally dismissed without any supporting law and in contravention of the Order of The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge, USDC, District Connecticut. The files below the horizontal rule are the referenced documents as filed. (Owing to the damage to the financial interests of both the U.S. and the District of Congresswoman Roybal-Allard, viz., Los Angeles, the Qui Tam provisions of the Federal False Claims Act probably would apply and I would absent resolution seek to refer the within to a firm with expertise in that area of the law with which I am not familiar).

 

 

The document in 5 pages under penalty of perjury I was asked to forward to the FBI office in New Haven is probably the best and most concise summary of the case  RICO Summary to FBI Under Penalty of Perjury at Their Request (5 pages)      [  ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf   http://albertpeia.com/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf          ].

 

 

The correspondence I received from the Congresswoman by way of email attachment (apparent but typical problem with my mail) along with my response thereto is included on the 3 disks as     fbicorrespondencereyes.htm     .   With regard to the calls to the FBIs LA and New Haven, CT offices: There was one call to the LA office and I was referred to the Long Beach, CA office where I personally met with FBI Agent Jeff Hayes to whom I gave probative evidentiary documents of the money laundering which he confirmed as indicative of same (he was transferred from said office within approximately a month of said meeting and his location was not disclosed to me upon inquiry). The matter was assigned to FBI Agent Ron Barndollar and we remained in touch for in excess of a decade until he abruptly retired (our last conversation prior to his retirement related to the case and parenthetically, Rudy Giuliani whose father I stated had been an enforcer for the mob to which he registered disbelief and requested I prove it, which I did he served 12 years in prison, aggravated assault/manslaughter? and no, there is no Chinese wall of separation Andrew Maloneys the one that prosecuted gotti).

 

 

In contradistinction to the statement in said correspondence, there is a plethora of information including evidence supporting the claims set forth in the    RICO VERIFIED COMPLAINT    (see infra). Such includes and as set forth in the case, inter alia,

 

 

 

 

There is applicable insurance / surety coverage and neither LA, nor creditors, nor I should continue to have been damaged by this brazened corrupt and illegal scenario, which should be resolved in accordance with the meaningful rules of law apposite thereto.

 

 

Sincerely,

 

 

Albert L. Peia

611 E. 5th Street, #404

Los Angeles, CA 90013

(213) 219-**** (cell phone)

(213) 622-3745 (listed land line but there are unresolved problems with the line, computer connection may be the reason but I hesitate to chance greater non-performance / worsening by their fix so cell phone best for contact).{recent change 323-786-6651 -magic jack}

 

 

                       ----------

 

*The foregoing and as indicated therein was previously send 9-14-10 but delivery confirmation was flawed as set forth below and my inquiries to the u.s. postal service rebuffed (I believe tampered with inasmuch as your office could not locate same). This cover letter (9-13-10) is on the 3 disks with navigable hyperlinks to the subject files for ease of reference, including the files in the RICO action as indicated. (10-15-10) I spoke with Rose, FBI, ADIC Secretary, who indicates once again that your office has not received the aforesaid and which can reasonably be presumed to have been tampered with, and hence, a violation of the federal statute concerning same. (Ultimately delivered by UPS) ]

 

 

http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf       http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm        Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holders vows to target financial fraud  WP Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown.    America Is a Failed State Because It Wont Prosecute Financial Crime  Washingtons Blog / the grim economic reality   [  http://albertpeia.com/grimreality.htm           

CRIME STATS(u.s.No.1)

Rank  

Countries 

Amount 

 

# 1  

United States:

11,877,218 

 

# 2  

United Kingdom:

6,523,706 

 

# 3  

Germany:

6,507,394 

 

UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE...      ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims ' Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holders vows to target financial fraud  WP | Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown.        


THE OBAMA DECEPTION
  http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv    

 


http://www.albertpeia.com 

 

 

 

Sincerely and Regards,

 

Al Peia

 

 

 

http://www.albertpeia.com 

 

 

 

 

 

8-29-11 NEWS / TOPICS

 



The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed!  Train Reading: The Stock Market Is (Criminally) InsaneThe Wall Street Journal , What to Expect Next From the Markets at Minyanville  Jeffrey Cooper Aug 29, 2011  Conclusion: It looks like a program was run using the least amount of dollars to goose the indices by focusing on some big cap names like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Baidu (BIDU), IBM (IBM), and Caterpillar (CAT) on Friday. That is why the market is so dangerous here…‘  Arguments for Being in the Crash Camp   Conor Sen  Aug 29, 2011 If you want to take risk, only own things you're willing to own in a down 20-30% tape, because that's what we could see over the next month...  Scandal scarred commerce dept. report on consumer spending with anemic income figures (typically as always unworthy of belief as unbelievable anything the government says in their desperation) spurs suckers rally (along with some short covering) to suck suckers in and keep suckers sucked in.  Massive Understatement: Mohamed El-Erians reply to Frank Motek 1070am regarding particularly the 300+ point swing to the upside today, (theyre) confused! Indeed they are! But when youre commissioning those manipulated computer programmed high-frequency-trade swings, churning and earning at lightning speed, such euphemistic criticism falls short with the impact of water off a ducks back.      Moreover, how pathetic are they, those Pavlov dogs on wall street salivating at the mere prospect of a QE handout ultimately at taxpayer expense, in one form or another. Even more pathetic is the so-called rally based on a purported rethink of fedspeak alleged  to be so filled with latent / hidden meaning of a form of QE welfare down the road. Those pathetic titans of capitalism; aka, the frauds of wall street.  Never mind that the QEs have failed miserably and at great costs (inflation, financial, economic, etc.) and detriment to all but the frauds on wall street by way of their manipulated computer-programmed ( high frequency trading) commissioned churn-and-earn. Wall streets rise has been among the causes of and comcomitant to americas decline / demise. Remember, there is no modern day alchemy that spins worthless paper into gold except fraudulently for the frauds on wall street whove literally oftimes done exactly that; cashing out for hard currency and gold, precious metals, at everyone elses expense including main street. Theyre just not that important and represent, like termites eating away at the nations foundation, a drag on the economy, the nation as one would expect from parasites such as they are. So whats changed of significance? Nothing! Absolutely nothing; yet a manipulated computer-programmed ( high frequency trading bots ) churn-and-earn suckers rally based on desperation, bad news, fraud and b***s*** alone to suck suckers in and keep suckers sucked in. Horrific news on the economic front particularly since the anemic (revised downward and I think much worse than reported) 1% GDP growth is all owing to hefty price increases / inflation, fudged and not reported accurately. Financial Crisis Phase II Is Ahead at Forbes Bert Dohmen  In late 2007, I wrote the book Prelude To Meltdown, predicting the global crisis that occurred the following year.  I now see a similar confluence of events that warns of phase II of the global crisis My work shows that the new recession has started.”… Over the past 33 years, we have called the start of every recession, often on the exact month, or within one month, of the official start as determined one year later by the official arbiter of recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) However, inflation is far understated for political reasons. Currently, the GDP deflator is 1.8%, which hardly reflects the true rise in prices. Therefore, what is counted as growth, is actually price increases. Actual inflation, according to free market economists who calculate inflation as it was done in 1980 before the politician re-engineered it, is now more than 11%. Using that to adjust GDP for inflation, would show that the economy is now in a very sharp contraction…’  This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits because theres much worse to come! ,  Despite being glad that Apple has survived (though outlook now dimmed regardless of rhetoric and beyond the Jobs retirement), american technology is horrendous and vastly overrated! I really mean it, and thats reality, which speaks volumes about the pathetic state of the world ,  Famed economist predicts economic calamity in 2012. See the evidence.Newsmax  http://w3.newsmax.com/a/aftershockb/video.cfm?promo_code=CA79-1      50% unemployment, 90% stock market drop, 100% inflation. See the Evidence (Newsmax.com  ,       Bernanke - Man of Mystery: Dave's Daily at TheStreet  Bernanke did what a lot of people expected him to do -- speak softly but carry a big printing press. After being down nearly 200 points the DJIA rallied to close higher by 135 points. Pundits shrugged embracing the idea if something was really wrong Bernanke would have acted; besides, bulls' reasoned stocks are cheap based on trailing PEs of around 12. Away from that was more crummy economic news with GDP printing at only 1% growth. This may be revised lower again like most other indicators of late…’  (Daves Daily:.. The HAL 9000s have been doing business as HFTs (High Frequency Traders) launching many buy or sell programs using complex algorithms which can drive prices on indexes higher or lower in dramatic fashion. One of their great acts is called "quote stuffing". It's another illegal activity which the SEC hasn't quite figured out. It's as futile for them as the illegal fee-driven recent end-of-quarter price jam-job..)   Economic / Financial Collapse Imminent Stansberry  Investment Advisory http://www.albertpeia.com/stansberrysinvestmentadvisory.flv    Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011 Dow will Fall to 3,800 4,500 by 2012 Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the latest. U.S. Dollar will Decline Housing will Decline by 40 60% from Todays Levels Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010 and 2012).  Fed Economists Predict A 15 Year Bear Market For Stocks Aug 23rd, 2011 News (BusinessInsider)     Play It Again Sam: Dave's Daily  [ As always, Dave is spot-on as an astute, knowledgeable, seasoned veteran of the markets. ] Thursday was another great show starring Jobless Claims, Warren Buffet, HAL 9000s, Steve Jobs and, of course, Da Boyz running the CRIMEX (COMEX and CME) on precious metals options expiration.The spin on Jobless Claims data was prior claims were adjusted higher making recent higher claims look not so bad especially when you add Verizon workers. Warren Buffett entered from stage left with a $5 billion investment in Bank of America giving him 6% interest tax-free (a "coddled" billionaire?) and making he and Berkshire a new TARP program. The HAL 9000s have been doing business as HFTs (High Frequency Traders) launching many buy or sell programs using complex algorithms which can drive prices on indexes higher or lower in dramatic fashion. One of their great acts is called "quote stuffing". It's another illegal activity which the SEC hasn't quite figured out. It's as futile for them as the illegal fee-driven recent end-of-quarter price jam-job. One of these actions was featured courtesy of our friends at Zero Hedge and depicted below as it occurred Thursday afternoon. The first chart features the quotes per second (NOTE: one instance exceeding 800 quotes per second). The next chart shows the market's simultaneous reaction. http://www.thestreet.com/tsc/daves/082511/image002.jpg  Steve Jobs sadly is retiring from his leading role as Apple CEO but the stock hardly budged given the products and brand are already well-known and his retirement was much anticipated. Last, but not least certainly, was the performance of Da Boyz production of gold price manipulation…’ Previous: Manipulated computer-programmed ( high frequency trading bots ) churn-and-earn suckers rally into the close based on desperation, fraud and b***s*** alone to suck suckers in and keep suckers sucked in!   Stocks up on government report (I consistently and here now again warn of fake reports / data) on durables far better than expectations / reality100% better? I dont think so! Come on sheer desperation at best! Steve Jobs resigns from Apple, Cook becomes CEO - SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Silicon Valley legend Steve Jobs on Wednesday resigned as chief executive of Apple Inc in a stunning move that ended his 14-year reign at the technology giant he co-founded i... [ Far more than just a Silicon Valley legend, Steve Jobs literally saved Apple from extinction Im truly glad he saved Apple, my first computer (1986 - apple IIc for word processing / data based records / forms / templates / data which I interfaced with an electric typewriter for letter quality) and for that all should be thankful. Apple is the Nasdaq (40% weighting) and quite more, that now was! Thats past tense. Steve Jobs goes out a big winner as indeed he should! Yet, make no mistake, as one might expect, his timing was impeccable inasmuch as without his uniquely inspired innovation, competition moving in, and particularly the coming debacle / crisis the worst of which lies ahead, things are not looking up, in and for pervasively corrupt / defacto bankrupt america particularly, euphemistically speaking. ]  End Of Cycle Smelling Like Dow 3K, Gold 3K  Forbes /  Bill Bonner  Our view [ the correct view ] is that the bear market began in January 2000. The feds fought it off with two huge extravaganzas of spending the first beginning in 2001 the other after 2008. Stimulus does wonders for stock prices but it no longer works for the economy that sustains them. For every dollar that the Fed has put to work to fight the crisis since 2008, for example, it has produced only 80 cents worth of GDP. It didnt work……that the recession of 08-09 in the US never actually ended……and that stocks will go down over the next 5-10 years until they finally hit a real bottom…’  Ted Weisberg to Frank Motek 1070am could think of no reason for the market to be up (BAD NEWS: new home sales down, oil prices up - China's manufacturing index showed a decline, the seventh straight month of declines for German manufacturing and the first decline in two years for European manufacturing activity, in u.s. a big miss on new home sales and a decline in the Richmond Fed's manufacturing index.) with some prodding ultimately a begrudging mention of that meaningless fudge term oversold which of course is no reason at all particularly since the market is substantially overvalued so take this as an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits because theres much worse to come! ,  Fed Economists Predict A 15 Year Bear Market For Stocks Aug 23rd, 2011 News (BusinessInsider) The San Francisco Fed has come out with a research paper connecting the dots between the retiring baby boomers and stock prices. The thinking is that the boomers will divest themselves of stocks as they retire and eat into their savings.These conclusions are just horrendous! The suggestion is that there is a 15-year bear market in front of us. Multiples will fall by 50%!!…“We do see it as something of a headwind as the economy is attempting to recover. These deep thinkers have it completely wrong. They think that the key to having a stronger economy is higher stock prices. So they spend all of their efforts dreaming up ways to keep the S&P ramping up. I think it is the exact other way around. If the economy were to be growing [ you see, thats the problem in large part the economy wont really be growing (huge price increases / inflation for the illusion), among a multitude of other problems ], it is reasonable to assume that stock prices might rise. It is completely false to assume that attempts to jigger stocks higher will lead to a stronger economy [ This is true, but the writer ignores the criminal fraud factor as the raison detre for the jiggering. ]  ,  Dow:Gold Ratio and the Secular Bear Market Minyanville  Toby Connor Stocks.. after.. bear market rally, will roll over and continue down into a final four-year cycle low..Depending on whether or not the Fed tries to fight the cleansing process, or Ben Bernanke tries to stop the bear market with another round of quantitative easing, stocks should either test or breach the March '09 lows. Either way I expect that 2012 will go down as one of the worst years in human history. Certainly in the same category as 1932, if not worse …’  ,  american technology is horrendous and vastly overrated! ,  Famed economist predicts economic calamity in 2012. See the evidence.Newsmax  http://w3.newsmax.com/a/aftershockb/video.cfm?promo_code=CA79-1      50% unemployment, 90% stock market drop, 100% inflation. See the Evidence (Newsmax.com  ,   Accounting Gimmics Resurface as Growth Flounders at TheStreet Rebekah Smith, director of financial advisory services at accounting and consulting firm GBQ consulting, says accounting tricks and schemes are likely to start unraveling as we head into 2012 and the lag effect catches up. "The typical accounting fraud goes on for about 18 to 26 months before it is uncovered. The frauds that took place in 2009 are not going to surface until later in 2011 or into 2012."   ,  Morgan Stanley Biggest Welfare Recipient as Federal Reserve Lent Banks $1.2 Trillion During Financial Crisis Wall St. Cheat Sheet  ,    Social Security disability on verge of insolvency     ,  Welcome To The New Bear Market For Stocks  Forbes / Suttmeier ,  Dow/Gold Ratio Lowest Since 1987 Crash   Forbes /  Adrian Ash  ,   Ignore Buffett's Advice, Don't Buy Stocks Forbes /  Dohmen , The "Crimes" That Wrecked The Markets  Forbes / Lenzner  ,  Tech Leading Market Lower The Wall Street Journal  ,  Banks closed in Fla, Ga, Ill; 2011 total is 68   ,   No Recession Coming ... It's Already Here   Minyanville's T3 Daily Recap: Market Gives Back Weekend Gains Amid US Bank Woes at Minyanville  ,Previous:8-18-11 Stocks rally off lows to suck suckers in and keep suckers sucked in on bad news (Jobless Claims, Inflation Rise More Than Expected CNBC) , fraud ( SEC destroyed documents, senator says    Crimes Wrecked The Markets    ), and b***s*** alone!  MKM Bracing For SPY To Drop 8% More; Nasdaq Nearing August Lows Barrons.com,  WHY NEW LOWS ARE LIKELY  Maierhofer, Is It 2008 Again? Looking at the Summer Crash of 2011 Gayed A real bear market has begun …’ ,  Abandon Ship?[The USS Titanic] Yes, Because of These 5 Bearish Icebergs ... McGill ,  There's A Recession Coming According To The Data at Forbes  ,  HP, Dell hammered as tech-spending outlook darkens   JDSU, NetApp, disappointing figures, shares hit hard in after-hours trade   Dell braces investors for a bumpy road Dell makes a case on why it can better weather an upcoming storm  ,   S&P says sell Google's shares after Motorola deal  ,  STOCKS FALL AFTER FLOOD OF BAD NEWS: Here's What You Need To Know  Joe Weisenthal ,   Stocks Slip On Concern Over Europe's Debt, U.S. Data  ,  Watch Out: 2011 Looks A Lot Like The Market Top In 2007 Sean Hanlon Take A Lesson From 2007 And Sell Stocks Now at Forbes, [video] Trader: We Could Test 1120 Lows at TheStreet.com   In a Downtrend, Sell a Rally (Daily FX)     Latest: Economist Who Predicted Market Crash Warns of 2012 Aftershock. See More Here.    )   Five Reason Stocks Are Crashing, Tips to Prepare for Meltdown (Moneynews) Unthinkable Poised to Happen on Wall Street. See Disturbing Charts. (Newsmax.com)  US Recession Is Guaranteed: Expert CNBC.com  So whats changed of significance (other than previous full moon and consequent effects on the lunatic wall street frauds) Nothing! Absolutely nothing, yet a manipulated computer-programmed ( high frequency trading bots ) churn-and-earn suckers rally based on desperation, fraud and b***s*** alone (ie., backward looking, revisions, faked data, etc.) to keep suckers suckered, which makes for an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits since theres much, much worse to come!     Regulators close 64th U.S. bank this year , U.S. consumer sentiment grim but retail sales jump with gasoline prices up  ,  [$$] 'Junk' Bonds Point to Recession  , Stock Market Parallels to 2000 and 2008 Should Not Be Ignored   , How Low Will Stocks Go?   Michael Kahn, who writes the Getting Technical column for Barrons.com and the QuickTakes Pro blog, has long argued were in a secular (long-term) bear market, and he thinks the cyclical bull is over, too. Like Arbeter, he sees 1,010 to 1,050 as the next level of support for the S&P, and below that 930.  50% unemployment & 90% Dow crash also predicted. Newsmax   Tech up? Is this some kind of a joke? Absolute confirmation of dire prospects worldwide since american tech is horrendous.  (Newsmax.com) Robert Wiedemers new book, Aftershock: Protect Yourself and Profit in the Next Global Financial Meltdown, quickly is becoming the survival guide for the 21st century. And Newsmaxs eye-opening Aftershock Survival Summit video, with exclusive interviews and prophetic predictions, already has affected millions around the world but not without ruffling a few feathers.    [ The instant  video on the economic / financial collapse from Stansberry and Associates is so well researched  and succinctly presented  that Ive archived same on my website; also, because the facts and views presented comport with the facts and views Ive presented on my site which I believe to be correct. This is a must-view, must-see that I strongly recommend!    
The complete url:     http://www.albertpeia.com/stansberrysinvestmentadvisory.flv   http://www.albertpeia.com/stansberrysinvestmentadvisory.mp4    Written text of presentation (without pictures  / charts)]  [A lot of pre-election year obfuscation, manipulation but the debacle is already here:  Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
Dow will Fall to 3,800
4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the latest.
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40
60% from Todays Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010 and 2012).
   Dow 1000? Robert Prechter Thinks So      Prechter Reiterrates Call For Dow 1,000, Even As Surging Gold And Plunging Dollar Leave Much Credibility To Be Desired        Bulls Go to Extremes: Don't Buy the "Breakout", Sell It, Prechter Says     Russell: This Is One Of The Largest Tops In Stock Market History  My old friend, Bob Prechter, is talking about Dow 400. I used to think this was an absurd joke. I no longer think its a joke. The ultimate result will be a primary bear market shocking in duration and extent. …’     Forecasts from Dent, Napier, and then Prechter: Depression is Imminent The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to below 777 which was the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and quite likely drop below 400 at one or more times during the bear market.  [ 8 More Reasons Why You Should Be Deeply Concerned That The U.S. Government Has Lost Its AAA Credit Rating The Economic Collapse ‘…  #8 The U.S. national debt continues to get worse by the day.  Just check out what economics professor Laurence J. Kotlikoff recently told NPR.If you add up all the promises that have been made for spending obligations, including defense expenditures, and you subtract all the taxes that we expect to collect, the difference is $211 trillion. Thats the fiscal gap ..   Why You Shouldn't Buy Into This Plunge Forbes/O'NeilThe market is building momentum to the downside.]    Russell Napier is the author of the book Anatomy of the Bear, a professor at the Edinburgh Business School and a consultant to CLSA Ltd. which is one of the top research houses in Asia. Napiers research indicates (and I paraphrase) that: The S&P 500 will Decline to 400 by 2014 (the Dow 30 to 3800) The S&P 500 will then undergo a major crash that will see U.S. equity prices bottom at almost 50% below current levels (i.e. to 400 or less; the Dow 30 to 3800 or less) sometime around 2014 as Tobins q drops to 0.3 signaling the end of the bear market, as it has done at the end of the four largest U.S. market declines in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982. U.S. Treasury Sales Collapse Leading to End of U.S. Dollar as Reserve Currency Robert R. Prechter Jr. is author of a number of newsletters and books including Elliott Wave Principle (1978) in which he predicted the super bull market of the 1980s; At the Crest of the Tidal Wave A Forecast of the Great Bear Market (1995) in which he predicted a slow motion economic earthquake, brought about by a great asset mania, that would register 11 on the financial Richter scale causing a collapse of historic proportions; and Conquer the Crash: You can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression (2002) in which he described the economic cataclysm that we are just beginning to experience and advised how to position ones self financially during that period of time. Depression is Imminent The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to below 777 which was the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and quite likely drop below 400 at one or more times during the bear market.    Watch for fake govt data / reports owing to political desperation!  This an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits, particularly if you missed Tuesday or May, since theres much, much worse to come! Thursday, Aug.11, 2011: what changed from yesterday which warranted a more than 500 point plunge with paper stocks still over-valued? Well, some bad news labeled as better than expected 1) 7,000 fewer jobless claims than expected (just a little over 1% better even if you believe them I dont) 2) Cisco shows results better than expected 3) Record monthly trade deficit  [ What Recovery? Forbes we cant call this a recovery. Theres no reason to celebrate when a job report was better than expected. Why? Because the expectation was abysmal to begin with. Cisco Systems Incs quarterly results edged past Wall Streets scaled-back expectations ...They beat a low bar. A lot of it is coming from cost cutting, which we anticipated. In that sense its a relief, Joanna Makris of Mizuho Securities USA told Reuters. Cisco, which depends on government spending for about a fifth of its revenue, said in July it would cut 15 percent of its workforce and sell a set-top box factory in Mexico.. Cisco bulls may underestimate tough road ahead Randewich. ] Tuesday, Aug.9,2011: what changed from yesterday which warranted a more than 600 point plunge with paper stocks still over-valued and a 545 bounce off of afternoon lows? Nothing! Absolutely nothing, yet a manipulated computer-programmed churn-and-earn suckers rally based on fraud and b***s*** alone to keep suckers suckered, which makes for AN ESPECIALLY GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL / TAKE PROFITS SINCE THERES MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!  [ Is this some parallel universe where unfounded criticism is levied at S&P for the downgrade when theyve actually cut the pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt disunited states a break by not rating what america truly is; viz., junk status for the paper / liabilities / obligations that cannot and will not be paid (or the equivalent vis-à-vis what would be in worse than evermore worthless Weimar dollars or some other ponzi-like subterfuge, obfuscation). The amounts are insurmountable going forward. They point to Moodys and Fitch; yet, lets not kid ourselves, S&P is the 800 pound gorilla in this world among rating agencies and moodys, fitch have substantially diminished themselves as entities consistent with their mission and purpose and as well, their credibility. I mean, come on! Consider the pressure that was and continues to be applied. Moodys and fitch, quite frankly, folded. Chinas rating agency has already downgraded u.s. paper and theyre holding (huge amounts of that u.s. junk); and hence, against their own interest. Wake up! Wall Street closes worst week since '08 with wild day NEW YORK (Reuters) S&P on U.S. downgrade: Debt pact 'falls short' - Reuters  S&P downgrades US credit rating from AAA   S&P Shocks the U.S. with Credit Downgrade to AA+ from Prestigious AAA Rating  Wall St. Cheat Sheet    What Recovery? Forbes   ‘…we cant call this a recovery. Theres no reason to celebrate when a job report was better than expected. Why? Because the expectation was abysmal to begin with. And while were at it, we cant ignore increasing sovereign debt problems in Europe…’  Top 3 Reasons Markets Erased the Years Gains Wall St. Cheat Sheet  1) Japan and Europe 2) Unemployment.3) Capital goods - billions of dollars in lost revenue. Financial Crisis Phase II Is Ahead at Forbes Bert Dohmen  In late 2007, I wrote the book Prelude To Meltdown, predicting the global crisis that occurred the following year.  I now see a similar confluence of events that warns of phase II of the global crisis My work shows that the new recession has started.”… Over the past 33 years, we have called the start of every recession, often on the exact month, or within one month, of the official start as determined one year later by the official arbiter of recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) However, inflation is far understated for political reasons. Currently, the GDP deflator is 1.8%, which hardly reflects the true rise in prices. Therefore, what is counted as growth, is actually price increases. Actual inflation, according to free market economists who calculate inflation as it was done in 1980 before the politician re-engineered it, is now more than 11%. Using that to adjust GDP for inflation, would show that the economy is now in a very sharp contraction…’FLASHBACK HERE: Selling In May Is Very Good Advice This Year  Harding   Remember: Sell in May and Go Away and If Youve Not Sold by June, Youre a Loon! Albert Edwards: Thinks the Market Could Fall 70% [ Hes not alone!   PRECHTER: We're Still In A Massive Bear Market And Stocks Will Crash To New Lows     Stock Market: 4 Current Warning Signs  Navin ‘…1) The 5-year high in the level of insider corporate stock sales is telling. At 565 sells for every 1 buy, its never been higher. Yes, its normal for insiders to be selling some of their stocks so they can buy new yachts and some of this is pre-planned. But that ratio which has spiked recently is extraordinarily high, one might even say off-the-chart  previous‘…1) Job cuts. 2 ) ISM service-sector report. Mondays ISM manufacturing report contributed to market losses on Monday, but todays report, though equally negative, didnt quite have the same effect as markets began to level out this afternoon. The ISM service-sector index declined to 52.7% in July. The U.S. service sector accounts for three-fourths of all economic activity, and employs four out of every five U.S. workers , so a 0.5% decline speaks volumes about the state of economic recovery…’  Factory orders for June fell by 0.8% (just because they say the bad news isnt as bad as expected does not make such bad news rally material. Indeed, the huge ralleys based on now revised downward data never seem to retrace that fake data induced stock surge based thereon.    Service sector growth slowest since 2010    Moody's sets negative outlook on BNY, JPMorgan         S&P ends string of losses on tech rebound  Tech rebound? Is this some kind of a joke? Tech up today? Absolute confirmation of dire prospects worldwide since american tech is horrendous. Yet, sizzling childs play is the order of the day and credit still must be given to those [ie., Steve Jobs-Im truly glad he saved Apple, my first computer (apple IIc for word processing / data based records / forms / templates / data which I interfaced with an electric typewriter for letter quality)] who could (as he) identify such novelties as the biggest over-priced / over-valued sensations since the hoola hoop (hoopla hoops - which were pretty cheap and with some minor health benefits to boot).Take this run-up as a gift based on fraudulent wall street b***s*** alone and take this opportunity to sell / take profits / sell today if you missed in may and then go away! Nothing has been solved; maybe forestalled.  Rout spells trouble for Wall Street  / Moody's confirms U.S. rating at Aaa, outlook negative / Chinese rating agency cuts U.S. debt again / Minyanville's T3 Daily Recap: Signed Debt Deal No Cure for Sickly Market  / US auto industry uneasy after weak July sales / Fitch Unimpressed By Debt Deal, GDP; Markets Unimpressed By Fitch / US debt deal alone won't sustain AAA rating / Stocks now down for year as economic concerns grow AP    The Daily Market Report Aug 1st, 2011  PG  Relief? What Relief? http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum Late last night when party leaders and the President announced that they had reached a bipartisan deal that would allow the debt ceiling to be raised, gold dropped about 1%. Global stocks rallied in relief and briefly, ever so briefly, gold was out of favorCBO scores the package as accomplishing $2.1 trillion in spending cuts over the next 10-years, the CBO baseline also has the deficit rising $6.7 trillion over the same period. The premise apparently being that were working our way to actual cutting by cutting to slow the pace of the nations proliferate spending. In actuality and as evidenced below that CBO baseline may prove to be way too optimistic. What really lit an intraday fire under gold today was the big miss on US July ISM, which plunged to 50.9. The market was expecting a modest downtick to 55.0 from 55.3 in June The Truth About The Debt Deal: Its Pretty Much Meaningless Business Insider/ Come on! Who believes their pre-election year data, reports, b***s***? Theres desperation in the air and like never before! One commentator, Peter Shiff, to Frank Motek of 1070am Bus.Report references the sham in Washington; and regardless, points to default by way of inflation, further stating that the debt ceilings already been breached by borrowing. Moreover, he additionally states that default is inevitable by way of inflation; that the fed will be buying the evermore worthless american paper (bonds) and creating/printing evermore worthless american dollars; that theres been a quid pro quo with at least one of the 3 (S&P, Moodys, Fitch) federal licensed rating agencies, viz., of reaffirming the u.s. AAA rating in return for no prosecution surrounding their role in the S&P AAA rated worthless (fraudulent, mortgage-backed, derivative) paper securities (fraud) giving rise to the previous leg of this continuing, ongoing debacle / crisis. He finally goes on to recommend non-u.s., non-dollar denominated assets, precious metals, and alternate currencies. Initial unemployment claims rise to 418000 - Jul. 21, 2011 which bad news sparked wall street rally what total b***s***. No budget deal, celebrated Greek Plan DEFAULT! sounds like a plan!, backward looking earnings results riiiiight! Watch Out: 2011 Looks A Lot Like The Market Top In 2007 at Forbes  Sean Hanlon  / Deficits And Stimulus Only Delay The Inevitable Collapse Bob Chapman | America is insolvent and has been so for a long time. US Is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece: Gross When adding in all of the money owed to cover future liabilities in entitlement programs the US is actually in worse financial shape than Greece and other debt-laden European countries, Pimcos Bill Gross told CNBC Monday.  Maierhofer: USA INCOME STATEMENT:Total federal spending in 2010 amounted to $3.456 trillion. Total receipts added up to $2.162 trillion. USA Inc.'s 2010 deficit was $1.294 trillion.The 2011 federal budget is $3.7 trillion with a projected deficit of$1.6 trillion. USA BALANCE SHEET: Consensus estimates for unfunded obligations vary. Mary Meeker pegs the shortfall at $31 trillion, PIMCO's Bill Gross estimates the unreported debt to be $75 trillion, while other estimates exceed $100 trillion (these amounts are insurmountable) …’ Huge suckers rally to keep the suckers suckered in this market based upon backward looking data discounted multiple times to the upside (including the apple numbers as recently as last week on leaked expectations of better than expected, etc.), taxpayer funded QE results, and b***s*** alone. This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits since theres much, much worse to come!   IT'S GOING TO HURT 'FOR LONG TIME TO COME' [ Says tiny tim geithner thanks for the heads up tiny tim  God bless us everyone!  As if we didnt already know it / feel it! Dave's Daily  'If you can keep interest rates this low this long, its inevitable cheap financing can allow companies to start cobbling each other up. Further Ben's policies allow companies like IBM to sell bonds at 1% and buy back shares with the proceeds (total paper bubble-scam). POMO is occurring almost daily and Primary Dealers can buy back their shares and pay dividends with what essentially is taxpayer money-- Why The Dow Will Plunge To 7,000 By 24/7 Wall St.    S&P Poised For Dropoff, Says Initial Jobless Claims  Forbes / Maureen Farrell  ]




A Decade of Decline in Equity Markets Faisal Humayun [ This is a must read and explains how the market’s been artificially propped, the dow relative to hard assets, ie., gold (dow/gold ratio), has actually crashed 78%, and comparable prospects for the next decade, etc.. ‘…The Dow Jones Index was trading at 11,357 levels at the beginning of the year 2000. More than a decade later (as of beginning July 2011), the index is at 12582. Therefore, the index has gained 11% in the last ten years…’ Yet, the inflationary dollar (declining) debasement rate was 31%. (-31%) {See the inflation calculator infra – and that’s just the government (inflation) numbers … reality is much worse!} Meanwhile, the frauds on wall street are churnin’ and earnin’ like never before at lightning computerized speeds enabling the high-frequency trades that are commissioned in unprecedented large volumes; a big net negative in real economic terms.]  While Washington Fiddled The Economy Burned at Forbes [ Oh come on! Let’s get real here! The economy was already burning (see infra), Washington notwithstanding! Indeed, the frauds on wall street with those contraindicated paper stock computer programmed commissioned churn-and-earn rallies would love for you to think it’s Washington only {that aw shucks, coulda’ been clear sailin’ otherwise moment; but the reality is that things are far more dire financially and economically than their window-dressed scams would indicate, though washington’s no help, incompetent, unknowledgeable, and ineffectual as they are (although fraudulent wall street, aside from their consummate scammin’, is little better and probably overly relied upon and light in those very areas one would expect to find profiency; viz., finance and economics.) Most importantly, realize that if wobama’s actions had not belied his words/campaign promises, the nation’s position, though still ominous, would have been substantially improved.}  ] Check out this inflation calculator:   http://www.albertpeia.com/inflationcalculator.htm

 

 

Here’s a picture of obama voters / backers: http://www.albertpeia.com/wobamavoters.gif

 

 

Beneath the Market’s Swings, Some Real Cause for Worry  News  Jeff Cox August 11 (CNBC) — ‘So whether this equals, falls short of, or exceeds the financial crisis of 2008 hardly seems to matter—investors are afraid, very afraid, and the question as much as anything in the minds of many market pros will be what soothes that fear. Analyst Dick Bove at Rochdale Securities says he knows why: More restrictive capital requirements and near-zero interest rates set at the Federal Reserve [cnbc explains] that make lending neither easy nor lucrative, a trend that will make it difficult for the economy to grow. “If one thinks through these limitations it can be seen that banks must shrink their balance sheets and change their business patterns to maintain their profits. What they are unlikely to do is to expand their lending activities in order to grow the economy,” Bove wrote in a lengthy banking analysis Thursday.“However, the Federal Reserve is suggesting that the economy is unlikely to grow,” he wrote. “If the Fed is prescient, then banks are facing higher loan losses, lower loan volume, and reduced margins on a wide array of banking products. The outlook is not appealing.”“Even though the United States is able to both print and borrow money, it is as bankrupt as the Europeans,” Bove wrote. “Covering deficits and paying debt with borrowed funds, some of which is newly printed, does not constitute meeting debt service requirements.”…’

 

 


The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed
! Previous, full moon and fraudulent wall street, get this, rallies on not as bad as expected EU stress tests and better than expected google results but forget the dire consumer (recession level) consumer sentiment number ‘cause after all, consumer spending just a paltry 70% of GDP.  Think about this: short-lived Pavlov dog rally (the conditioned stimulus) on hopes for more welfare for wall street and some good results in communist China. This despite the previous failure of QE for everyone but the frauds on wall street and ultimately, though circumlocuted, at great taxpayer expense. Titans of capitalism? How ‘bout the biggest unprosecuted frauds in the world. Preposterous!  Roche 'The worst part of it  ...Obama, who vowed change, has done almost nothing to fix any of it and in fact continues most of the policies that helped get us here in the first place’  ‘INSIDE JOB’ Ferguson wins Oscar for Documentary on the unprosecuted massive extant fraud in the (many) TRILLIONS by the frauds on wall street ( and declares with oscar in hand that not one high level wall street exec has been prosecuted … despite ‘earning’ billions from the fraud )   I want just one person with courage enough to stand up and explain to all that these huge commissionable computerized trading volumes like never before are a net negative in a very big way … that’s a fact … that’s economic reality in real terms!   Trade deficit up, growth predictions by fed scaled down [ do you recall how many upside market points for the false, more positive growth projections by the ‘no-recession’ fed, then there’s also the costly, hyperinflationary failed QE hopes, more fed jawboning rallies the frauds on wall street off their lows to keep suckers suckered – they all belong in jail!   Housing Woes to Cause Recession in 2012, Says Gary Shilling - Peter Gorenstein  STOCKS BARELY FALL AFTER MOUNTAIN OF BAD NEWS: Here's What You Need To Know Business Insider Weisenthal Economic scenario far worse than expected (and in this pre-election year the reality is still far worse than reported), yet stocks still rallied off lows to keep suckers sucked in to this fraudulent market    Click here to see the new scariest jobs chart ever  http://www.businessinsider.com/details-from-the-awful-june-june-jobs-report-2011-7    >  See all 12 charts from St Louis Fed:  http://static8.businessinsider.com/image/4e1712edcadcbba25f030000-595-356/chart.jpg    Previous:Stocks rally on jersey-based, former Lautenberg ADP still paltry, better than expected 157,000 private jobs number and one’s got to wonder ‘who got paid’, one way or another, for the fudge. Then there’s the horrific ‘american tech’. Retail? The defacto bankrupt government’s probably buying with money they don’t have, at best; and, as with other data in these desperate pre-election-year times, plain false, falsified, fudged, spun. Previous day, all bad news … from eurozone (protugal, et als), to asia zone (china worse than expected), to america (where to begin, from defacto bankruptcy, to debased currency, to insurmountable debt / dervice, to pervasive corruption, etc.) … stocks rally on fraud and b***s*** alone. Previous, higher oil price rally, along with Netflix ‘technology rally’ … Don’t make me laugh! … Total desperation on wall street and in Washington … How pathetic! … Jobless claims at 428,000 much worse than expected; and, don’t forget, these are desperate ‘pre-election times’ when regardless of factual reality (ie., fake reports, data, as, ie., ‘wobama hometown’ corrupt chicago ISM is up as even their youth gangs are showing increased criminal activity which probably accounts for the rise; ie., meth, crack labs, etc.?) data / reports are fudged / faked / spun. Foreclosure, distressed sales up, at least on paper with contracts signed, so no surprise nor reason to cheer here, as markets worldwide jump on the american crazy train for a short-lived bounce as all problems remain. This is the same month end (and quarter, half) spurt / window dressing based on b***s*** alone to keep the suckers suckered and an especially great time to sell / take profits since there’s much worse to come! Talk about milking the greek crisis for the umpteenth time a so-called solution (and there are loads of greecy scenarios worldwide …  I don’t think so and neither does Schaeffer who says: ‘…even once such a package is passed it only buys time. Actually fixing the fiscal condition of Greece is not something that can be solved in a matter of weeks, or even months…‘ but it’s great press for the churn and earn and to keep the suckers suckered.  Technology rally? Defacto bankrupt american technology is horrendous but great sizzle for the new fraud as in the dotcom bust days. Then there’s the greasy b.s. new greecy b.s. factor. The rally into the close and the previous so-called (4 day) ‘rally’ was based on b***s*** alone to keep the suckers suckered and for ‘smarter money ‘ along with the frauds to sell into. This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come!    Selling In May Is Very Good Advice This Year  Harding   Remember: Sell in May and Go Away and If You’ve Not Sold by June, You’re a Loon! ‘ ‘Albert Edwards: Thinks the Market Could Fall 70%’ [ He’s not alone!   PRECHTER: We're Still In A Massive Bear Market And Stocks Will Crash To New Lows     Stock Market: 4 Current Warning Signs  Navin ‘…1) The 5-year high in the level of insider corporate stock sales is telling. At 565 sells for every 1 buy, it’s never been higher. Yes, it’s normal for insiders to be selling some of their stocks so they can buy new yachts and some of this is pre-planned. But that ratio — which has spiked recently — is extraordinarily high, one might even say off-the-chart.       Wall Street 'Vastly Underestimating' Risk of Debt Default  Forbes / Robert Lenzner   StreetTalk ‘ “Meet the Press” climaxed Sunday  with a startling market prognostication from David Brooks, conservative columnist for the NY Times. The risk of a debt default over the combustible issue of the Medicare deficit hangs over the course of the stock market. Buyers Beware!“I was up in Wall Street  this week,” Brooks said. “They’re vastly underestimating the source of piolitical risk here. We could have a major problem, I think, either this summer or the next couple years. And I’d be worried about investing too much in the market. That’s my financial advice.”…’   Another Financial Crisis Is On The Way, Mobius Says      Market Crash 6/30/11?Technical indicators suggest market collapse may begin by June 30th Dennis Slothower is one of the world’s leading technical analysts. He’s one of the few advisors whose readers completely avoided ALL losses during the disaster that was 2008. And now he’s issuing another dire warning. His technical indicators suggest that the market manipulation we’ve seen over the last several months is about to come to an end…and that means thousands of investors are about to get clobbered. This correction could begin as soon as June 30th– so it’s important that you take action now to prepare yourself. StealthStocksOnline.com        STOCKS HAVE BIG RALLY AFTER PILES OF UGLY NEWS: Here's What You need To Know    Harry Dent: “Major Crash” Coming for Stocks, Commodities Already Topping Out           24 Signs Of Economic Decline In America ‘The US is in the middle of a devastating long-term economic decline..’ ]  States face shortfall for retirees (WP)   Public workers’ retirement funds had a gap of $1.26 trillion at the end of fiscal 2009    Study: Affordable rentals scarce  (WP)      Poll: For Obama, low marks on Afghan war (WP)  Fuel prices cut into Obama popularity  (WP) They’ve used the contrived mideast turmoil and their wars to obfuscate and divert attention from their failure.    Davis ‘This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘  Dave's Daily  'If you can keep interest rates this low this long, its inevitable cheap financing can allow companies to start cobbling each other up. Further Ben's policies allow companies like IBM to sell bonds at 1% and buy back shares with the proceeds (total paper bubble-scam). POMO is occurring almost daily and Primary Dealers can buy back their shares and pay dividends with what essentially is taxpayer money-- Why The Dow Will Plunge To 7,000 By 24/7 Wall St.   S&P Poised For Dropoff, Says Initial Jobless Claims  Forbes / Maureen Farrell   

 

 

 

Take A Lesson From 2007 And Sell Stocks Now at Forbes, Sean Hanlon August has given new meaning to the dog days of summer as the broad equity market has retracted all year-to-date gains and dropped into negative territory, all within the first couple weeks.

As written in my previous Market Commentary on July 20, our research uncovered potentially dangerous activity in the equity markets that could lead to a break and high volatility.  We presented this in that Market Commentary by the chart in Figure 1 below.  Using our proprietary research methodologies, we elected to make a major tactical move on June 17.

That move reduced all equity and high-yield bond exposure, creating 50% cash or cash equivalent allocations across all portfolios. This defensive move was shown to be prudent as volatility erupted and considerable downside was experienced in equity markets in the first week of August, as shown in Figure 2.

Figure 1 (click image to enlarge.)

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/advisor/files/2011/08/11.jpg

With this heightened volatility, we were observant that this market behavior was eerily similar to market conditions in 2007. To elaborate on this point, lets compare the S&P 500 Index for 2007 vs. the first seven months of 2011.  As you can see below in Figure 2, 2007 experienced high volatility yet remained range-bound in an upward trend (represented by the overlaid black bands).

Figure 2 (click image to enlarge.)

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/advisor/files/2011/08/2.jpg

 

The first half of 2011 maintained a range-bound upward trend until finally breaking sharply to the downside in the first week of August.

Of course now everyone wants to know what happens next?  Our research has no special predictive power of what may happen now that the trend has been broken. Instead, what our research is telling us is to remain extremely cautious at this time.  We have since moved client portfolios to almost 100% money markets and/or cash equivalents in all accounts.  We do maintain some high quality bond positions.

You may think But I cant make any money in money markets, they pay nothing these days!  True enough, but there are many times in ones investing lifetime where the best investment is to simply maintain principal.  That principal amount will be able to potentially purchase more in the not too distant future.

A simple example is stocks.  On April 29 of this year, $1,340 purchased the equivalent of one S&P 500 Index share.  Today, to own those same companies that make up the S&P 500 Index, the cost is below $1,200, yet the same amount of dividends is being received.  In this period preserving principal has resulted in increased investment purchasing power, income and potentially increased return.

 

Related article: Watch Out: 2011 Looks A Lot Like The Market Top In 2007

 

 

 

[video] Trader: We Could Test 1120 Lows at TheStreet.com

 

 

There's A Recession Coming According To The Data at Forbes  The stock market peaked in April, and is behaving in the saame fashion it did in late 2007, when big troubles from real estate writedowns were spreading through the financial sector.

The most worrisome statistic this week was the Empire State Manufacturing indedx wehich was down from a minus 3.76 to a minus 7.7 a leading indicator of recession in the past. The new industrial orders index from New York remained well below zero at minus 7.8.

The Federal Reserve Board has promised to keep interest rates at zero until 2013 an admission that the economy is not expected to rebound for two years until the next President is in the White House. This policy step indicates the Fed does not believe the economy will recover either this year or next year. Never before has the centreal bank made such a policy declaration for as long a period as two years.

There were 1300 new lows in the market on August 8th another phenomenon that hasd not taken place since the great stagnation was triggered in 2008. Even though the market indexes made up all their lost ground, it appewars that investors are willing to delude themselves that  corporate profits will reemain at very high levels despite the period of austerity we are clearly entering.

The austerity required in Europe to deal with the sovereign debt crisis is likely to push Europe into a recession. This will impact US corporations dependent on important profits from Europe.

The corporate return on revenues has risen the past two years to a peak of 14% an unusually high level of profits that is not expected to continue.

Consumer savings are rising as household debt gets paid back. But, we are a long way from safety levels of savings in a high unemployment period. And the higherb the saavings rise so the lower the level of consumption will be.

Housing numbers were down 1.5% last month underscoring that the turnaround in housing is not close at hand.

 

 

Market's Swoon Should Be Your Wake Up Call

 

 

Watch Out: 2011 Looks A Lot Like The Market Top In 2007 Sean Hanlon:   Back on December 12, 2007 I wrote a market commentary that started as follows:

The equity markets have been very volatile this year, but also range bound.  A picture speaks a thousand words so all one needs to do is view the chart below of the S&P 500 Index to understand just how volatile and range bound things have been.  Specifically, since February 20, 2007, only nine and one half months or so ago, the S&P 500 Index has been down 5.86%, up 13.02%, down 9.43%, up 11.26%, down 10.09%, and now up 7.73% through 12/10/07 so far in this latest up leg!  All this in ONLY nine and one half months!

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/advisor/files/2011/07/market-commentary-1.jpg

History is repeating itself so far in 2011, which has been fraught with ups and downs in both international and domestic equity markets.  This is due to many things, including the considerable economic doubts and various countries debt situations. This uncertainty has translated into market performance with direct impacts on portfolio returns and more prominently in portfolio volatility. This volatility is best seen in the chart below of the S&P 500 Index beginning 1/1/11.

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/advisor/files/2011/07/market-commentary-2.jpg

2010 ended positivity and the momentum carried into the first two months of 2011 however the end of February began a series of events that led market returns on a whipsaw ride of ups and downs, resulting in the current universal mid-year views of market uncertainty.

What news was associated with this volatility? All the usual; crude oil prices, natural disasters, corporate earnings, politics, economic forecast revisions for both developed and emerging markets, the European debt situation, the United States debt situation and more to name just a few.

One thing is for certain; the current volatile, range bound market activity is difficult at best to profit from.  In this investing environment patience is the most important attribute.  I will be patient and will be careful until the trends are preferable.

Our strategy at Hanlon Investment Management is to attempt to minimize downside risk by exiting risk asset classes, such as equities, during periods of uncertainty, getting invested in more conservative asset classes, such as money markets and short-term bonds, and re-entering into risky asset classes when we identify them as attractive, when the trend is our friend and positive!

Having identified this volatility, in June we made defensive, tactical investment decisions that provide less exposure to these volatile, range bound markets and prepare us to re-enter the markets when they possess improved risk characteristics.

 

 

 

SEC may have destroyed documents, senator says 17 Aug 2011 The Securities and Exchange Commission may have destroyed documents and compromised enforcement case ...   Grassley: Agency may have got rid of Goldman, Madoff documents   Ronald D. Orol, MarketWatch WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) The Securities and Exchange Commission may have destroyed documents and compromised enforcement cases involving activity at large banks and hedge funds during the height of the financial crisis in 2008, according to allegations made by a lawmaker on Wednesday. From what Ive seen, it looks as if the SEC might have sanctioned some level of case-related document destruction, said Sen. Chuck Grassley, Republican of Iowa, in a letter to the agencys chairman, Mary Schapiro. Sen. Chuck Grassley  It doesnt make sense that an agency responsible for investigations would want to get rid of potential evidence. If these charges are true, the agency needs to explain why it destroyed documents, how many documents it destroyed over what timeframe, and to what extent its actions were consistent with the law. Agency staff destroyed over 9,000 files related to preliminary agency investigations, according to a letter sent in July to Grassley, the top Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee, and obtained by MarketWatch. The allegations were made by SEC enforcement attorney, Darcy Flynn, in a letter to Grassley. Flynn is a current employee, and according to the letter, received a bonus for his past years work. Flynn alleges the SEC destroyed files related to matters being examined in important cases such as Bernard Madoff and a $50 billion Ponzi scheme he operated as well as an investigation involving Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS +0.33%   trading in American International Group credit-default swaps in 2009. Flynn also alleged that the agency destroyed documents and information collected for preliminary investigations at Wells Fargo & Co. WFC +1.34% , Bank of America Corp. BAC +0.81% , Citigroup C +0.13%  , Credit Suisse CS +0.38%  , Deutsche Bank DB +0.79%  Morgan Stanley MS -0.06%  and the now-bankrupt Lehman Brothers. The letter goes into particular detail about Deutsche Bank, the former employer of current SEC enforcement chief Robert Khuzami as well as former enforcement chiefs Gary Lynch and Richard Walker…’

Sen. Chuck Grassley  It doesnt make sense that an agency responsible for investigations would want to get rid of potential evidence…’ [ Oh but it does make sense Sen. Grassley:   Report: SEC lawyer exposed FBI informant (WP) [ Clearly, the sec liar (sic lawyer) is one of those typically with a pre or post arrangement, whether implicit or explicit; you know, that ubiquitous bribe thing in pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt, fallen  america. Indeed, the scenario typifies that national drain / sinkhole new york (new york / new jersey metro) where, for example, FBI informants were routinely exposed by italians in the new york d.a.s office over the objection of the FBI, and were promptly dispatched/assassinated / hit by mafia / organized crime [ this was documented with authority in the book Goombata: The Improbable Rise and Fall of John Gotti and His Gang Cummings / Volkman  ]

 

 

TRAIN READING: COVER-UP  Mark Gongloff

Is the SEC covering up Wall Street crimes?
Matt Taibbi

The forex market is causing some companies to pull up stakes Heard on the Street

Resisting the urge to buy the dips Josh Brown

Maybe its not stocks that are cheap, but earnings estimates that are high Ritholtz

The US economy is becoming more susceptible to hurricanes Real Time Economics

How Irene lived up to the hype  Five Thirty Eight

The War on Terror is dead The Atlantic

 

Emerging markets now have more heft and reach than developed ones Economist (video)

Why is the White House defending banks from investigations? Megan McArdle

Hurricane Irene may cause a gas-price spike
CNN/Money

Know the difference between short-term and long-term problems for the economy Ritholtz

Why arent governments more afraid of a double-dip recession? The Atlantic

France deserves a downgrade at least as much as the US does Bethany McLean in Slate

Recent market volatility has historical precedent Mark Hulbert

Stop worrying about China not buying Treasurys, already FT Alphaville

Fed hawks at odds over their reasons for dissent Reuters

Why Rick Perry made a bid for the anti-Fed set  Slate

Maslows hierarchy of needs gets an update The Atlantic

How did so many people feel one small quake in Virginia?  The Atlantic

Philly Fed coincident indicators turning red Calculated Risk

Treasurys are priced for disaster Capital Spectator

Profit recession risks tick higher FT Alphaville

The rich can afford to pay more taxes Bruce Bartlett in Economix

 



 

Everything You Need to Know About the Latest Market Plunge [But were afraid to ask]  Minyanville Staff Aug 18, 2011  ‘After a rather benign start to the week, markets plunged on Thursday with the S&P 500 shedding 4.5% and the Nasdaq-100 falling nearly 5%. The main driver on the day was speculation European banks remain insufficiently capitalized. Gold jumped nearly 25 to a record high and Treasuries rallied. Among stock movers, Apple (AAPL) outperformed the indices but still dropped 3.7%, Microsoft (MSFT) also outperformed closing down just 2.2%, Bank of America (BAC) dropped 6% and Oracle (ORCL) fell 8.3%.
Below are this week's top Minyanville stories examining the state of the US and global markets.

Is It 2008 Again? Looking at the Summer Crash of 2011
A real bear market has begun, and bonds got it right as early as February that the biggest threat to the global economic system is deflation.
by Michael A. Gayed 

Dynamics of This Market Panic Ripple Though History
The 10-year anniversary of the 1929 high ties to the beginning of World War II on September 1st, 1939 when Hitler invaded Poland and France declared war on Germany.
by Jeffrey Cooper 

Are Gold and S&P 500 Behaving Logically or Irrationally?
Unfortunately Mr. Market rarely embarks upon the logical until he has convinced enough market participants to behave irrationally.
by J. W. Jones 


Random Thoughts: Fed Dissention and Financial Market Fatigue
The world's wildest reality show continues.
by Todd Harrison

Handicapping the Global Economic Recovery
The obvious question must be begged: where do we go from here?
by Todd Harrison 

Coming in October: Next Major Price Cycle Low
A major price cycle on the daily S&P 500 chart, which shows reliability in bottoming about every 15.5 months, is due for its next low on or about October 31.
by Michael Paulenoff 

Volume Trends Suggest Worst Is Not Over for Stocks
When the market rallies hard after a nasty decline, one of the first things that can determine whether the rally's a keeper or not is volume. Here's why.
by Tim Thielen

The Sign of the Bear

When the quarterly turns down, the normal expectation is for the market to carve out a low soon, in terms of time and price -- not to waterfall.
by Jeffrey Cooper

Economy Showing Signs of Life, but Not for Long

We're on the brink of a nice little bump from the data coming in, but on the whole, a 1930s-style depression seems to be on track.
by MoneyShow.com

Wall of Worry Keeps Rising on Europe's Credit Crisis Fears

To make matters worse, politicians in the world's crisis-free countries are on summer vacation.
by Lloyd Khaner

Why Is Everyone Bullish on the US?
Wall Street will always think positively of the market, but the facts are pointing to a bearish phase.
by Gary Kaltbaum

Five Things You Need to Know: Asymmetric Economy Increasingly Untenable and Unstable
This situation cannot continue without adjustment.
by Kevin Depew

Fed's Easing Policy Means Worse Living Through Convexity
As the Fed removes interest rate risk through stealth QE3, it introduces other risks, distorting incentives for investing and weakening the economy in the long term.
by Professor Pinch

Are US Markets Facing the Abyss?

The vast majority of technicals are indicating a new bear leg.
by Jeffrey Cooper ‘

 

 

 

Dow Tumbles on New Worries About Same Old Issues - Aaron Task

Who’s Worse: U.S. Banks or Bernie Madoff? - Stacy Curtin

 



 


WHY NEW LOWS ARE LIKELY   Simon Maierhofer, August 18, 2011  Last Sunday's (August 14) ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter update listed 5 reasons why new lows are likely. Here they are:

HISTORIC REVERSAL

We've been expecting a major market top in the S&P 500 (SNP: ^GSPC), Dow Jones Industrials (DJI: ^DJI) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC). The April 3 ETF Profit Strategy update identified the ideal target range for a major top to be 1,369 - 1,382. The chart below was featured in the same update.

It outlines a top around 1,370 followed by an initial decline to about 1,230 (happened in June), followed by a rally (happened in July), followed by a steep decline.

DEATH CROSS

The death cross is one of the most talked about technical events, that's why I don't put too much stock in it. However, there are two interesting facts about previous death crosses.

The 2000 and 2007 death cross occurred about three days before the S&P embarked on its next leg down. The 2010 death cross was actually a buy signal. However, it occurred after the S&P and DJIA bounced off a multi-year trend line. This time the trend line was broken so a more bearish interpretation of the death cross is appropriate.

                               https://www.etfguide.com/images/PDNewsletter_Images/5%20-%20April%203%20TF.jpg  

SEASONALITY

August, September, and October is the most bearish stretch of the year. September and October sport negative performance even in the pre-election year.

SENTIMENT

From S&P 1,370 on May 2 to S&P 1,258 on June 16, the S&P shed 112 points and sentiment measured by Investors Intelligence (II) and the American Association for Individual Investors (AAII) turned deeply bearish (only 37% II bulls). The June 16 ETF Profit Strategy update took that as a queue to buy (long positions were closed at S&P 1,340).

From S&P 1,353 on July 7 to S&P 1,102 on August 9 the S&P lost 251 points, yet the II sentiment poll registered the second most bullish reading since the first week of May (47.3% II bulls). AAII and II polls are often considered the 'dumb money.' If the 'dumb money' views last Wednesday's low as a buying opportunity, the 'smart money' should be suspicious.

VIX PATTERN

If you have the charting capabilities, take a moment and plot the VIX (Chicago Options: ^VIX) against the S&P for the months of September - November 2008 and April - July 2010. If you don't have the time you may simply look at the chart below.

                                https://www.etfguide.com/images/PDNewsletter_Images/yahoo%20-%20vix%20pattern.gif  

What we've seen in 2008 and 2010 is that a VIX peak did not coincide with the S&P bottom. The S&P bottom actually occurred against a lower VIX reading. If this pattern continues, we will see lower lows.

The August 14 ETF Profit Strategy update includes a detailed analysis of the VIX pattern.

THE SCRIPT

Via more or less accidental chart surfing I found a striking resemblance between the 2007 market top and the May 2011 top.  This moved me to state in the July 17 Profit Strategy update that:

'There is a similar trend line and a triple top above the trend line. A break below that trend line could be a precursor of bad things. Next week the trend line will be at about 1,262.' The S&P sliced through that trend line on August 4 and fell an additional 12% within the next four days.

The August 7 Profit Strategy update revisited that script and concluded this: 'We now have a rough script; let's see how much lip the actors will add during the live performance (I.e. S&P downgrade). 

The two main things I have taken away from the 2007 script are:

1) There will be a new low.

2) There will be a powerful counter trend rally to around 1,xxx (reserved for subscribers).'

THE VERDICT

We got the new low and we got a rather powerful rally. Now the question is, how long will the low last and how high will stocks rally?

The script suggests there will be another low. The VIX pattern suggests there should be another price low. Seasonality suggests that there's some headwind on the way up. Sentiment readings suggest we should be suspicious of any rally. The death cross also suggests lower prices.

SUMMARY

There were a number of good reasons to expect new lows on Sunday. Yesterday's ETF Profit Strategy update recommended to go short as soon as the S&P breaks below 1,373. This happened within the first few minutes of trading today. Now it's time to let the script play out…’

S&P Triggers 200-day MA Death Cross - What Does this Mean? ETFguide.com

Is This a New Bear Market? The Chart That Tells The Whole Story ETFguide.com

Why The Worst May Be Yet To Come ETFguide.com

 

 

 

Abandon Ship?[The USS Titanic] Yes, Because of These 5 Bearish Icebergs | iPhone 2 (robot)... By Michael McGill: August 18, 2011 is a day that has handed out some of the worst economic news since a few days in the 2008 financial crisis, and it has the Dow Jones Industrial Average down big time. The reasons keep piling up to turn bearish and pile into safer investments. Here are 5 reasons showing that investors need to be on the watch out for choppy waters tsunami type waves ahead: Homes Sales Drop 3.5% in July This marks the weakest sales (4.67 million) figure in 14 years, even beating last years disappointing mark of 4.91 million. This is despite the average rate of a 30-year fixed mortgage coming in at its lowest level on record (4.15) this week. This is data to fight the ever increasing hope that home owners have of increasing the value of their homes. Jobless Claims Rise 9,000 Last week investors were looking for Complete Story »

·        Homes Sales Drop 3.5% in July

·        Jobless Claims Rise 9,000

·        Treasuries Hitting Record Highs (record low yields)

·        Inflation at the Consumer Level Rose to 0.5% in July

·        World GDP Growth Slowdown - …’

 

 

 

Dow/Gold Ratio Lowest Since 1987 Crash   Forbes   Adrian Ash Todays gold buyers might still get to look early birds as this depression wears on GROWTH or defensestocks or gold? Intra-day noise aside in summer 2011, Mr.Markets choice looks plain.

The Dow/Gold Ratio a measure of the U.S. stock markets valuation in ounces of gold has sunk as equities have plunged but gold prices have jumped so far this summer.

Dropping through 6.0 ahead of Fridays New York opening, the Dow/Gold Ratio hasnt been this low since early 1989, back when world equity markets were recovering from the Great Crash of Black Monday 1987.

http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/files/DowGoldviii11.png

That slump itself had taken the Dow/Gold Ratio all the way down to 3.6, with gold prices rising to nearly $500 per ounce as the Wall Street index sank to 1776 points. Growth, of course, was only taking a pause in late 1987 a quick breather before the real race to perfection of the late 1990s. Today, in contrast, the Dow/Gold Ratio could still go a lot further down. Or so says history.

Trading a little over its century-long average of 10.0 today, the ratio bottomed during the 1930s Great Depression at just below 2.0 ounces of gold for one Dow unit. At the nadir of the next global depression the inflationary depression of the early 1980s the Dow/Gold Ratio sank even lower, down to 1.0.

Whatever flavor of depression weve got at the start of this decade and it is a depression, as Western jobs data continue to show and as the Dow/Gold yardstick will confirm if it goes much lower (keep an eye on the underperformance of gold mining equities, too) a growing flow of private savings is choosing defense in gold bullion rather than choosing business-risk in listed stocks.

That choice might sound self-fulfilling if you work in psychiatry or government, a kind of clinical disorder open to curing with medication, zero interest rates or perhaps a third round of quantitative easing most likely aimed at risk assets, we guess, rather than the risk free Treasury bonds targeted by QE1 and QE2 and which institutional investors are all-too keen to hold anyway.

So far, however, investors choosing to buy gold only account for a tiny portion of the money fleeing equities.

From here to a true depression low in Dow/Gold (if such a level is reached), todays gold buyers will need to find many more friends. Theyd also look early-birds compared with the rush out of stocks and into gold needed to reach that 2.0 or 1.0 mark.

 

The Great Stocks Vs. Gold Round Trip  Aug 19th, 2011 News (BusinessInsider) — ‘ When priced in gold stocks have now returned to where they were at the market’s low-point, back in 2009. Actually, we’re even worse now.  http://www.usagold.com/pete/newsviews/20110819GoldSPratio.jpg   PG View: In 1965 De Gaulle called for a return to an “indisputable monetary base,” one that “does not bear the mark of any particular country.” He of course was referring to gold. As was pointed out in a Forbes article early in the week on the 40th anniversary of President Nixon closing the gold window, over the last four thousand years, the only period in which humanity has not consistently based its currency in metal, specifically gold, is the last forty.” And look what that has wrought…’


Ignore Buffett's Advice, Don't Buy Stocks at Forbes Bert Dohmen [ Yeah this is really good advice. As a shill for fraudulent wall street, they may have given him some stellar performances and cash to boot; but, the homespun bumpkin senile buffets analytical abilities, if ever really extant, have certainly passed the point of no return. You may recall how the clintons, with a mere $1,000 or so, were revealed as commodities trading wizards, but as written up in the Wall Street Journal someone was giving them money. In fairness, that they were singled out (was) is a bit arbitrary inasmuch as thats going on all the time on wall street, and now with greater precision owing to greater computer programming capabilities, to everyone elses detriment. Remember, in a manner of speaking, there are two sides to every trade, viz., winner and loser (in relative terms).] The markets plunged going into August 8. On that day, the DJI closed with a loss of 629 points. My indicators signaled that a brief bounce would commence the next day. According to the charts, the first target for the S&P 500 was 1205. The target was hit exactly a few days later. That was followed by a renewed plunge.

I have been looking for a serious crisis to start in September. It appears that we have seen the prelude for that. The big smart money has been preparing for the past five months.You can see the distribution pattern on the charts since mid-February. The rush to the exits is now accelerating and the smart money has been selling short in large amounts.

The extreme bullish sentiment that prevailed until the latest plunge was first replaced by complacency, then by concern. However, the fear stage is still missing, except at hedge funds that were forced to sell because of margin calls. In fact, during the severe plunge in the first week of August, investment investors became even more bullish according to Investorsintelligence.com. That is not good for the markets.

The market negatives are increasing in numbers. The IPO window is now shut. There are signs that credit is once again vanishing. Loans are being called in, some companies appear to have difficulties rolling over their Commercial Paper, junk bonds yields are soaring, European banks may stop lending to each other, and the European crisis is spreading out across the globe. Its my view that this will cause another credit crisis, just as in 2008.

Whats worse is that contrary to 2008, the big players learned to read the signs from their 2008 mistakes. They are now wide awake, although in the media, their minions still repeat the same bullish fairy tale. This means that this crisis could develop much faster than the last one. (Read my book, Financial Apocalypse, which is the 2008 roadmap, one which can be used very well for what is now happening.)

The words possible recession suddenly is being mentioned a lot in the media, although economists still strongly deny that possibility. Our rule is that the stronger their denials, the more certain and the deeper the recession will be. In fact, I declared in our May 9 issue of the Wellington Letter that the recession had started.

Morgan Stanley lowered its global GDP growth forecasts for 2012 from 4.5% to 3.8%. My forecast is for 1%-2% or less. It would be negative growth except for the fudged inflation numbers.

The European politicians are not any smarter than those in the U.S. Merkel and Sarkozy had a meeting in Paris and did nothing. That day I called the outcome Disastrous for the markets. It took the markets a day to digest the consequences and then the selling avalanche started. Many of the markets in Europe, led by the banks stocks, went into virtual free falls, losing from 4%-7% in one day. Such losses indicate an approaching crisis.

Now we see some of the well-known Wall Street figures appearing in the media, telling investors all the reasons why stocks are a good buy. One appeared with a long list of bullish factors. Well, that list didnt prevent the global stock market from losing an incredible $6 trillion over the past several weeks. He did the same cheerleading on national TV in 2007 before investors lost 50% of their wealth.

Warren Buffett is also once again the cheerleader saying he is buying stocks. He did that in 2007-2008 as well, and then the meltdown started later in 2008.

I would not fall for this self-serving advice. Words cannot rescind a recession that we already have, it cannot stop the insolvency of entire countries in Europe, it cant change the fact that major profit downgrades will appear soon, and it cant stop the China crisis that is now starting.

Gold is soaring, but the mining stocks look terribly weak. There is great danger now with the gold stocks getting hit hard by less developed countries, including South Africa, to nationalize gold mines. This is too lucrative for them to resist.

I would get out of all money market funds unless they are U.S. government only.  The MMFs have big exposure to European banks. We believe that lending between banks in Europe may seize, which means that the whole structure will start shaking. You will start hearing the word contagion.

In my opinion, the danger period is approaching. What we have seen until now is just a preview. The main feature is likely to be worse.

Bert Dohmen is editor of Bert Dohmens Wellington Letter and author of Prelude To Meltdown (2007) and Financial Apocalypse (2011).




The "Crimes" That Wrecked The Markets  Forbes / Robert Lenzner CNNs anchor in London, Richard Quest, raised the issue squarely today about trying to explain the crimes that have created this failure to recover from the 2008 recession and the fear of another  downturn in the economy that could wipe out many of the gains we have achieved. Quest, of course, did not mean felonies or violations of the law that would land people in prison. I think he meant crimes of bad policy, crimes of financial illiteracy, crimes of stupidity, crimes of poor leadership.

So, heres my attempt to sum up my answer to Quest.

The powers-that-be saved  the Masters of the Universe on Wall Street by using trillions of loans, investments and guarantees that sent the signal that Finance was the nations Number One Priority.  This historic gift to finance meant that the growing disparity between the super-rich and the middle class would continue to widen, without anyone of our top policy gurus suggesting it was splitting our nation. Some academics even worry about the crime of pushing the middle class into poverty.

Nevertheless, there was no bold strategy left to help those out of work. It was a crime that the stimulus program did nothing to create any jobs in the private sector. Obamas economic adviser in 2009 , Larry Summers, was dead set against a make-work program to put the nations skilled construction workers busy on repairing  the rusting infrastructure he finds distasteful at airports and railroad stations. Now, we are going to be given the sop of an infrastructure bank that couldnt possibly be in place for years, if ever.

No question the handling  of the debt limit debacle was  crime of poor planning, no overall shred strategy and trying to effect a master plan for $4  trillion cuts with only days to go before the August 2nd deadline. Keystone Cops,  whatever you wish to call it caused a loss of confidence in the nations politicians; a kind of virtual crime on the public who deserved better. Much better. This entire episode removed the foundations to rational expectations for the stock market and threw the nation into a madhouse of volatility and confusion.

I dont know what to call the lapse in the markets faith in paper money and the more-or-less steady rise in the price of gold from $850 an ounce 3 years ago to well over $1800 today.  There is no other stock, bond or commodity you could have purchased that had this magnificent performance. Well, maybe the shares of Apple, and some global commodity producers.

Moreover, it was a crime to do nothing about the obscene bonuses taken by the Masters of the Universe who only were able to pay themselves in this way because of the federal bailout. No one has tried to  get back the fortunes taken away by Lehmans Richard Fuld,  Countrywide Credits Angelo Mozilloor either of the Merrill Lynch CEOs, who helped destroy their iconic firm. Now theres a crime.

Then, theres the  SECs unwillingness to reinstitute the uptick on short sales of stock so that hedge funds and other speculators could not trigger sharp sell-offs in the stock market If you had this uptick rule back, every short seller would have to wait for a transaction at a higher price to  sell short rather than the libertarian crime that allows them to pound a stock lower to make sure-thing profits. Its a crime short sellers are able to shoot ducks in a barrel. Shocking lack of fairness. No wonder Aunt Sadie is fleeing.

No doubt there were crimes committed in the week of volatility, with gyrations that scared the public. These movements up and down were caused by the high frequency trading by computers owned by hedge funds who are not investors but in-and-out traders several times a day and who have no regard for fundamental values.  These Masters Of  The Universe have the ultimate power in American society because of their political contributions and lobbying.

I believe Obamas health plan to be a crime because it was a sellout to the 5 giant health insurance firms that were given 4 years clear and free to raise their premiums without interference. It was a crime because Obama was told by leading Senators it was a terrible sellout of the citizenry.

I dont know what to call the bankruptcy of fiscal and monetary policy.  In some existential sense it is a crime that we have run out of  fiscal and monetary ammunition to turn this  collapsing shock treatment around. It is a crime that 300 million people will be looking for Ben Bernanke, Fed Chairman, to pull a rabbit out of a hat in Jackson, Wyoming next week, when central bankers are meeting.  QE2 came from last years meeting but it created no jobs.

The same will be true after Labor Day when the much-ballyhooed Obama  speech on jobs is coming. I fear expectations are going to be terribly disappointed. Expect  rhetoric as in We have always been a Triple A nation and we always will be Triple A. That was a crime of speaking mush, when 300 million people know better, and wanted to hear something meaningful. Not to have bold, kick-ass leadership at a time of crisis is a sad sort of a crime. 



Accounting Gimmics Resurface as Growth Flounders at TheStreet ‘-- Accounting gimmicks -- once the staple of the boom-boom stock market -- are on the rise as companies attempt to convince analysts and investors that they are profitable despite a sluggish economy, according to industry watchers. Accounting techniques of Groupon and Zynga were under the spotlight recently, with the Securities and Exchange Commission instructing both companies to adhere to more stricter and conventional accounting standards, causing them to amend their IPO offer documents.

The creative metrics in the IPO documents of recent social-media IPOs are reminiscent of the dot-com bubble when stocks were valued on metrics like "eyeballs", while fundamentals like revenues and profits were ignored.

 

Rebekah Smith, director of financial advisory services at accounting and consulting firm GBQ consulting, says accounting tricks and schemes are likely to start unraveling as we head into 2012 and the lag effect catches up. "The typical accounting fraud goes on for about 18 to 26 months before it is uncovered. The frauds that took place in 2009 are not going to surface until later in 2011 or into 2012."

 

Financial statement fraud like the kind that took place at Enron are rare. The Association of Certified Fraud Examiners estimates that such manipulation accounts for only 4.8% of total fraud cases, although it causes the most financial damage, with the median loss being more than $4 million.

 

But accounting gimmicks that focus on non-GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) measures are rampant and they can be misleading.

Groupon, for instance, claimed that the marketing expenses incurred to acquire customers were "one-time investments" and hence they should be excluded from the calculations of operating income.

By that metric the company made an operating profit at $81.6 million in the first quarter of 2011, as opposed to an operating loss of $113.9 million under traditional accounting standards.

 

However, analysts were quick to point out the metric was absurd. "If you are going to capitalize acquisition costs, the onus is on you to show proof that acquired customers stay as customers (and actually buy products for many years)," Aswath Damodaran, Professor of Finance at Stern School of Business and a reputed author of textbooks on valuation, wrote in a blog post.

 

"With strong competition from other online coupon based companies (like LivingSocial), it is entirely possible that customers once acquired, are fickle and move on... If that is the case, the acquisition cost has a very short amortizable life and begins to look more like an operating expense," he wrote.

 

Zynga issued a restatement of its second quarter results saying it did not hew to accounting standards in the way it estimates how long people play its video games. That had the effect of understating revenues during the second quarter. While the impact of the Zynga's restatement itself was not substantial, it highlighted the murky accounting involved when it comes to new business models.  "There is a new market of publicly traded companies with business models that open more room for interpretation on how revenues and costs should be treated. We do see some aggressive accounting techniques" says Dan Mahoney, director of research at the Center for Financial Research and Analysis, a unit of MSCI that specializes in forensic accounting.

Smith of GBQ Consulting says there is a greater risk of financial statement manipulation at such new-age businesses. "We have a lot of new business models and people are still trying to understand how the finances of these companies work," she said. "Companies get to decide what to tell them[investors] on how their industry works. They decide what the metrics should be."

While in a traditional sector an astute analyst might call a company's bluff, it is harder when you don't have history as a guide. "We don't have a typical 10-year history. As a financial professional, you can't make a conclusion on what the financial metrics should look like," says Smith.

Mahoney at CFRA says companies with high valuations are also ripe for these sort of gimmicks, as they are under pressure to sustain valuations.

While in a traditional sector an astute analyst might call a company's bluff, it is harder when you don't have history as a guide. "We don't have a typical 10-year history. As a financial professional, you can't make a conclusion on what the financial metrics should look like," says Smith.

Netflix(NFLX) has been criticized in the past for its calculation of subscriber churn rate, which looks at the number of cancellations as a proportion of subscribers. Netflix's method has the effect of overstating the subscriber base, thus making the churn rate seem lower.

Analysts have over time learned to adjust for this inconsistency. And as it turns out, the movie rental firm has drastically limited the metrics it is willing to provide , saying that in 2012 it will no longer report churn, gross subscriber additions and subscriber acquisition costs.

Problem solved.

Stern's Damodaran says companies resort to these tricks because the market analysts simplistically assign multiples to a profit metric. All companies have to do is "make a change that affects earnings and you can change the valuation," he says. "Investors need to understand what Groupon's business model is, what their potential market is, who are they going up against."

--Written by Shanthi Bharatwaj in New York

>To contact the writer of this article, click here: Shanthi Bharatwaj.



Morgan Stanley Biggest Welfare Recipient as Federal Reserve Lent Banks $1.2 Trillion During Financial CrisisWall St. Cheat Sheet



Dow:Gold Ratio and the Secular Bear Market at Minyanville  Toby Connor Aug 23, 2011 ‘However low the risk, large potential trades are now in the stock market, not in playing chicken with the gold parabola.

 As I have been warning investors for many months, stocks have now entered stage III of the secular bear market. Gold, on the other hand, is now in the final parabolic phase of a 2.5 year C wave advance.

My best guess was that we would see a Dow:Gold ratio of between 5-6 before this C-wave ended. The ratio was at 5.71 as of today. I think we may still have a little further to go on the downside for stocks and a little further upside in gold. So it's entirely possible that we could see a Dow gold ratio of 1:5 before the trends reverse.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/File/August11/tobyc8231.JPG
Click to enlarge

However low the risk, large potential trades are now in the stock market, not in playing chicken with the gold parabola.

Cyclically the stock market is now in the middle of the timing band for an intermediate bottom. Presumably a sharp bear market rally in stocks will trigger a regression to the mean, profit-taking event in the precious metals market (the D-wave).

D-waves almost always test, and sometimes marginally penetrate, the 200-day moving average. I've illustrated in the chart above a rough guess as to where I expect the countertrend rally in stocks and the D-wave correction in gold to retrace.

Keep in mind that the fundamentals for gold have not changed. A D-wave is simply a profit-taking event triggered by an unsustainable parabolic rally. It has nothing to do with fundamentals. Once the D-wave has run its course, gold will enter a sharp snapback rally (the A-wave), after which it should consolidate for the remainder of the bear market in stocks.

Stocks, on the other hand, after what should be a very convincing bear market rally, will roll over and continue down into a final four-year cycle low, probably in the late summer or early fall of 2012.

Depending on whether or not the Fed tries to fight the cleansing process, or Ben Bernanke tries to stop the bear market with another round of quantitative easing, stocks should either test or breach the March '09 lows.

Either way I expect that 2012 will go down as one of the worst years in human history. Certainly in the same category as 1932, if not worse
…’

 

Is the Market Forecasting War?   { Kind of a large dart board in terms of educated guessing in light of the perma-war bent of these perma-war bent nations; viz., ie., u.s., israel, europe, etc.. }  [ If so, and if this writers correct, all natos and americas misguided actions in the Mideast will be viewed as an attempt to weaken Arab nations for the benefit of war-mongering israel and will never be forgotten as such, to the substantial detriment of the dying so-called western alliance. ]



End Of Cycle Smelling Like Dow 3K, Gold 3K  Forbes /  Bill Bonner  Listen up, dear reader herein we announce an historic Daily Reckoning forecast.  Heres your north star, your compass, your GPS to the future. Print it out. Paste it to your refrigerator:

About the turn of the century, two markets turned Gold turned up Stocks turned down These major trends will end Whence they meet

Our view is that the bear market began in January 2000. The feds fought it off with two huge extravaganzas of spending the first beginning in 2001 the other after 2008.

Stimulus does wonders for stock prices but it no longer works for the economy that sustains them. For every dollar that the Fed has put to work to fight the crisis since 2008, for example, it has produced only 80 cents worth of GDP. It didnt work.

Fighting a credit contraction with more credit is a losing proposition. Eventually, investors are bound to realize that stocks are headed down. Eventually the bear market will resume. And eventually it will come to an end.

But when? Our guess is that it will end when the Dow and the price of gold arrive at the same point probably around $3,000. Whatever the number, youll be able to buy the entire group of Dow stocks for the price of one ounce of gold.

Of course, our view is a minority one. Warren Buffett doesnt buy it. Most investors dont buy it. We dont even suggest that you buy it, dear reader. Just remember it. If it turns out as expected, we want to be able to say We told you so.

And if it doesnt work out? Please have the grace to forget we mentioned it.

We would like to be able to predict the future, but weve never gotten the hang of it. Were just guessing.

But since were just guessing, we dont see why we should hold back.

Were also guessing that

the weight of so much debt is depressing growthand will soon depress stock prices too

that the economy is becoming zombified from too much government moneyespecially the military

that Mr. Market is ready for a long bear market anyhow; hes tanned, rested, and ready to go to work

that the US is following in Japans footstepstowards a long period of on-again, off-again recession

that the recession of 08-09 in the US never actually ended

and that stocks will go down over the next 5-10 years until they finally hit a real bottom.

Our guess is that gold goes down, shakes out the speculators and weak investors and then, perhaps a couple years from now, perhaps longer begins its third and final phase.

 

Back-to-School Sales Looking Blahat The Wall Street Journal

 

CHINA, EMERGING MARKETS POINT TO DOUBLE-DIP 2011 August 24 http://www.iphone2die4.com/2011/08/24/china-emerging-markets-point-to-double-dip   iphone-robot ChartProphet submit: The collapse of the emerging markets, especially China, India, and Brazil, will have a huge ripple effect on the rest of the worlds economies, and will plunge most countries back into a global recession.One of the major drivers of the markets over the past two years has been the unstoppable and highly promising future of the emerging markets, especially China. As millions of inhabitants in emerging countries begin to enter the modern world and middle class, their consumption and their effect on the economies of countries all over the globe increases. And as millions of people contribute to the growth of China, India, and other countries, they will require extra food, energy sources such as gasoline and oil, cotton for their increased consumption and clothing needs, industrial metals for their new cars and technology, and many other materials that a growing and evolving population needs…’

 

 

How much higher can Apple shares go without Jobs? (Reuters) [ Or the market without jobs? The answer euphemistally is not much but more accurately should be not all and down quite a bit! ]

 

 

Arguments for Being in the Crash Camp   Conor Sen  Aug 29, 2011 ‘If you want to take risk, only own things you're willing to own in a down 20-30% tape, because that's what we could see over the next month.  ‘This piece is going to read a bit like an inner monologue in the hopes that seeing how I wrestle with conflicting ideas may help with your own thought process. One of the responsibilities of putting your thoughts online for public consumption is only writing when you think you have something worth reading. After awhile you accumulate a portfolio of pieces and can see common themes in your writing, the struggles you've had, and whether you've been on the mark or not. And this summer I've written primarily about three topics: 1) the 2011 consumer tech IPO names led by Groupon, LinkedIn, and Zillow, which I've done a reasonable job with, 2) pessimism about the debt ceiling deal being resolved early due to the intransigence of the 2011 GOP, which I also feel I analyzed well, and 3) the ongoing macro tug-of-war between compelling valuations and the escalating European debt crisis, which I've gotten wrong.

The closest I got was in a June 24 piece where I wrote,

"My experience in 2007-08 taught me that in credit contagions understanding these dynamics is all that matters. Charts don't matter, macro data doesn't really matter, and until the contagion stops valuation doesn't really matter either. A $1 bill could trade for 70 cents if firms need to raise capital."


That's what I fought earlier this month, convinced that valuations for some blue-chip firms and not-as-bad-as-people-think macro data would be good enough. It hasn't been. The problem is, I thought about the issue too narrowly, focusing only on European sovereign spreads without seeing the second-order effects those spreads would eventually have. As sovereign spreads for the European periphery widened, governments responded by imposing austerity measures, which have now flowed through to the point where Europe may be back in recession. Here's one measure of the trend in economic activity for the key European countries.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/LisaCatchJUNE2011/plummet1.jpg

With sovereign spreads stressed and economic activity rolling over, European banks have been under pressure, both the equity and of course the credits, with credit default swaps for European banks at wider levels than they were in 2008-09.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/LisaCatchJUNE2011/plummet2.jpg

The problem with this is that credit spreads and equity prices are intricately linked, as this chart from Goldman Sachs shows comparing the spreads of the key iTraxx Main CDS index with the STOXX 600 index, Europe's equivalent to the S&P 500.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/LisaCatchJUNE2011/plummet3.jpg

And in a leveraged, interconnected world, a systemic problem somewhere flows everywhere else, as investment-grade and high-yield credit indices in the US show.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/LisaCatchJUNE2011/plummet4.jpg

The key question I've asked this week is: Can European banks, or Bank of America, fund themselves right now? The answer is no. That's a problem. If economic data were getting better, even on a green shoots basis, that might be one thing, but just about every data point we've gotten out of Europe recently, or Philly Fed here in the US, has been negative on a second derivative, and in many cases, a first derivative basis.

If we knew that fiscal and monetary policymakers were ready to fire bazookas and gas up their helicopters, that'd be a different story. In 2008-09 we got a big fiscal stimulus package out of China and a lesser but still sizable one in the US. Today we have both the US and Europe looking to cut spending, not increase it. On the monetary policy front, the ECB actually raised rates this summer, and Ben Bernanke's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday shows that either he doesn't think additional stimulus is needed, that it won't help, or that there's too much political risk to take bold action, precisely the problem he said hampered the Japanese in his famous 2002 speech on deflation.

Most worrisome of all might have been comments out of German Chancellor Angela Merkel last weekend, when she said, “Politicians can’t and won’t simply run after the markets. The markets want to force us to do certain things. That we won’t do. Politicians have to make sure that we’re unassailable, that we can make policy for the people.”

This is after a 25% drop in the DAX, and the leader of the country that holds all the cards in Europe says that she won't be bullied by markets. The Bernanke/Merkel/Trichet put may exist, but its strike price appears to be a lot lower than many thought.

When nearly every major bank in Europe has a credit spread north of 300bps or is headed there in a hurry, I'm not going to make the argument that so-so US economic data, solid earnings, and attractive valuations will win out in the short term. Markets are cruel and merciless when it comes to leveraged institutions under financial stress. In 2008-09 to combat this we got TARP, the AIG (AIG) bailout, the stimulus package, the Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program (TLGP), a whole host of other short-term funding programs from the Fed, and finally in March of 2009 we got green shoots, second derivative improvements in the economy. Today we have, "Most of the economic policies that support robust economic growth in the long run are outside the province of the central bank." If the SPX went to 700-800 we would see multi-generational bargains for a whole host of names, many of which would trade at around cash value plus a 2-3 multiple on earnings. But structurally, there's no reason why it can't happen. If you want to take risk here, only own things you're willing to own in a down 20-30% tape, because that's what we could see over the next month.’

 

 

 

Stocks Woosh Higher in Vacuum, Now Perfectly Poised for Disappointment at The Wall Street Journal

 



 

What to Expect Next From the Markets at Minyanville  Jeffrey Cooper Aug 29, 2011  ‘Conclusion: It looks like a program was run using the least amount of dollars to goose the indices by focusing on some big cap names like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Baidu (BIDU), IBM (IBM), and Caterpillar (CAT) on Friday. That is why the market is so dangerous here ‘   ‘From a technical perspective, the markets are looking dangerous right now. On Friday, a big buy program was run for Ben Bernanke’s speech after running the stops and getting traders short.

The S&P buckled after breaking the 1154 mid-point of the recent range, running the stops and trapping shorts for good measure on a Pinocchio of the key 1140 support, as offered in the last report.

However a first hour low was scored in a mirror image of recent first hour highs and I sent an alert to cover shorts. Combined with Bernanke’s speech, the flip was switched to save a poor weekly close when the S&P recaptured 1154.

A 10 minute chart of the SPY shows a downside ORB (a break of the opening range defined by the first 30 minutes) to flush the stops, and then an ORB Reversal back through the level of the downside pivot, followed by a powerful Reverse ORB on a thrust back through the top of the opening range implying a trend day to the upside.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/cooper/0811/29/ARCX_SPY_10%20--%20SPDR%20S&P%20500%20TRUST.jpg

The promise of the Catapult ORB -- first to the downside then back to the upside -- was further fulfilled on penetrating topside lateral resistance above 117 SPY.

In so doing, the notion of a Fed Cha Cha Cha was turned into more of a jitterbug for the shorts to run for cover.

The ensuing extension by the SPY led to a retracement back to the low of Thursday’s high bar.

Thursday gave a first hour high while Friday gave a first hour low as the robots play ping pong with tape.

One might fairly call Friday the “case of the missing ‘cha’".

Typically following Fedspeak, there is a sequence of 3 moves in opposite directions with the third move being the genuine bias.

In Thursday morning’s report I suggested that the direction following the first hour on that day should be the bias into the weekend. There was a change of character in the dynamics which the Reverse ORB did a good job of identifying.

There is another short term change in character implying a continuation on Monday morning (whether that will define a first hour high again near the important 1180ish resistance remains to be seen).

That short term change in character is set up by Friday’s Reversal of a Reversal, or what I call a ‘Kaiser Soze’.

Why? The important Three Day Chart Turned down on Monday as the S&P traced out 3 consecutive lower daily lows. In addition, Monday saw the Weekly Swing Chart turn down.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/cooper/0811/29/SPXweeklyJulyb.jpg
Click to enlarge

The fact that the turndown was marginal and defined a low immediately in terms of both time and price was a bullish indication of a short term test and a potential short term “W” bottom on the daily charts.

The takeaway was a multi-day rally which played out, finally satisfying a kiss of the overhead 20 day moving average which the S&P failed to accomplish on the first rally off the lows.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/cooper/0811/29/INDEX_$SPX_D%20--%20S&P%20500%20INDEX%20%7BDelay20%7D.jpg

The tag of the 20 dma, which played out on Thursday, was the first test of that trendline since the Cascade Setup began in July.

A pullback to the 20 dma is referred to by many traders as the Holy Grail for its effectiveness in defining a reversal point -- especially the first time.

Like clockwork, the S&P was rejected by the 20 dma on Thursday in concert with a turnup of the Three Day Chart. This defined another high, setting up a continuation trade for Friday to the downside.

However, a funny thing happened when the bears pressed the case of the “yes we have no QE3 Bananas for you” speech at the Jackson Hole forum -- the S&P left a Reversal of a Reversal, stopping right at the 20 day moving average and flirting with an extension above it this morning. This would coincide with a breakout over a trendline from late July.

Not all breakouts are created equal, as we saw with the breakout to a new high in May this year and also on the short-lived trendline breakout into the important July 7th pivot high.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/cooper/0811/29/SPXdailyAprilb.jpg
Click to enlarge

My rule of thumb is that breakouts and upspikes in persistent bear phases are made for the selling. However, as the weekly chart of the S&P shows, the index will turn its weekly chart back up on trade over last week's high of 1190.68 (Thursday’s first hour high).

The normal expectation is that this would set up another high, but because of the pattern of the W bottom, the constructive behavior on last week's turndown of the Weekly Swing Chart, and because the S&P is poised to pop over its 20 dma this morning which coincides with a breakout over a declining trendline, there is a likelihood that the bears will keep their claws in their pockets and the bulls may snort a little. While I would give the market its due on the upside if the action is constructive following the turn up of the weekly chart -- which the futes suggest will occur near the open -- I am not too interested in being long more than a few hours and overnight.

Be that as it may, a further change in short term behavior and constructive action following a turn up of the Weekly Swing Chart suggests a move to/over 1208, the recent swing high.

 

At the same time the the 55-day panic point from the July 7th pivot window does not close until August 31st, so this is tricky here. However, the market is not a fine Swiss watch and when it comes to these cycles one must allow for plus or minus a few days. I think we should key off the behavior following a turnup in the weekly chart and the action following the first hour. If the trend is still in runaway down mode, another high could be defined quickly. I would exercise some patience here and let the market speak.

The cycles suggest another short-term plunge into September 3rd and then a bigger rally to 1220 or higher into/around the end of the first week of September to September 11th. It then suggests another plunge that undercuts the 1100 low to possibly as low as 1018ish. If a flush of the lows plays out under 1100, it could mirror the pattern from 1937 or 1938. In other words it could be a fractal of the first waterfall decline with a marginal undercut, or we could see a deep flush of the lows.

The takeaway is that not all W bottoms are created equal. Often a W V pattern plays out. This is the pattern that played out from the triangle/consolidation in late 2008 to the “V” in March ’09.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/cooper/0811/29/DJ-30%201937%20-%201938%20final%202.jpg

While the institutional bulls are caught long on the trap door setup from August, a little strategy is required: above 1180 and then 1200 could see the S&P test 1220ish. This marks the double tops from April/November 2010. When the market knifed though those prior highs, which should have been ultimate support if the trend was still healthy, the Head & Shoulders Top projection to 1150 at a minimum became irrefutable. Those prior peaks near 1220, now broken, should offer substantial resistance. However, with many funds trapped short and everyone looking for a test of the neckline near 1250/1260 and a test of the 200 day moving average as it turns down, reconfirming the sign of the bear, it’s anybody’s guess if the sellers let it get back there -- at least in September. Perhaps a test of the 200 day plays out after a ‘W V’ and a flush of the lows, leading to a big “Bankers Rally”/Christmas rally to rescue bonuses, like in 2007.

Conclusion: It looks like a program was run using the least amount of dollars to goose the indices by focusing on some big cap names like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Baidu (BIDU), IBM (IBM), and Caterpillar (CAT) on Friday.

That is why the market is so dangerous here -- because despite big gains in these names when a big fund turns around to liquidate, they find few substantial bids on the way back down and these same stocks can be down 4 and 5 points again with another 400 point DJIA down day. When exactly that next break comes is anybody’s guess, but cycles suggest it is sooner rather than later. I would be patient about being too long for more than a few hours to a day or two for the time being. With everyone looking for the Big Backtest of the 200 dma, it is also anybody’s guess as to when that arrives -- from here or following a flush out of the lows. With everyone eyeing perceived targets of S&P 1220 to 1250, will the market just burn out here with everybody waiting and with an undercut of the lows having to play out before a better rally into year end? It is interesting that the war cycle from 1990 -- when Iraq's invasion of Kuwait on August 2nd precipitated a market waterfall -- that there was a July pivot high as there was this year.

In 1990 there was no low until October. August 2, 1990 was 252 months ago, tying to the big September 3rd historic cycle (which includes the 1929 all time high). In addition we have the 120 month anniversary of 9/11 and that Spike & Reversal pattern coming up, so I think a lot of volatility remains in store and patience and discipline will be critical no matter how good a short term change in character appears.

Strategy: I would look to scalp long above 1170 and scalp short below 1160. Monday may hold up, but it will be interesting to see if we reach the high for the week today -- in bear phases the first hour of the session often times scores the high for the day. If Tuesday is a reversal day, I suspect the market will trend down into the Labor Day weekend. If the market rallies up into the weekend it should define another ledge and jumping off point.

Gold broke according to expectations early last week from just above 1900. Another short sets up in the 1820 zone if it hasn’t already topped with a turnup of the daily charts on Friday. Ditto iShares Silver Trust (SLV). The next break should target 1660 and below that 1590.’

 

 

Obama's Legacy: A Failed Recovery & Double-Dip Recession

 

 

 

3 Reasons Markets Were Up After the Commerce Department Reported Jump in Consumer Spending Wall St. Cheat Sheet ‘August 29, 2011, 4:30 pm EDT Markets closed up on Wall Street today: Dow +2.26% , S&P +2.83% , Nasdaq +3.32% , Oil +2.38% , Gold -0.47% .

On the commodities front, Oil climbed to $87.40 a barrel. Precious metals were down, with Gold falling slightly to $1,788.80 an ounce and Silver falling 0.40% to $40.84 an ounce.

Hot News: Merkel and Sarkozys Euro Bailout Under Fire from German Lawmakers

Todays markets were up because:

1) Greek banks. News that Alpha Bank would acquire Eurobank had European stocks rallying, including and especially those of other Greek banks, as the announced merger boosted hopes that European banks would consolidate in order to help them weather the debt crisis. European Union and Greek officials have been pressing lenders to form stronger groups for many months now.

2) Consumer spending. While the news has already been somewhat dampened by the fact that consumer confidence declined sharply in August, consumer spending in July was reported today by the Commerce Department as having risen 0.8%, its fastest rate since February, after declining in June. The recovery of the auto sales played a large part in heightened spending, as did the cost of air conditioning in a July that exceeded average temperature levels in most states. Given that consumer spending accounts for roughly 70% of the U.S. economy, news that it grew so rapidly in July, a month when unemployment declined, paints a good picture of economic growth, though that growth may have been temporarily thwarted in late July and early August as lawmakers fought over a debt deal, S&P downgraded the U.S., and markets experienced a lengthy and drastic sell-off.

3) Capital goods. Some of todays best performers were capital goods stocks, with many outperforming the Dow, the S&P, and the Nasdaq. Leading gains were Dresser-Rand and USG Corp. , climbing roughly 13% each, while heavy-hitters Deere & Co. , Caterpillar , and Cummins all made gains of over 3% during regular trading. Overall, the capital goods sector climbed 3.40%, making it the best-performing sector of the day.

BONUS: Hurricane Irene Leaves Billions of Dollars in Damage

 

 

 

Five- How Irene lived up to the hype Five Thirty Eight ‘…Loss estimates for Irene are going to take some time to calculate but the early figures are quite bad. Estimates in an ABC News article are of property losses of between $7 billion and $13 billion and the rule of thumb is that total economic losses are equal to about twice property losses, which would imply a total price-tag of between $14 billion and $26 billion.Using the low end of that range $14 billion in total losses would rank Irene as the 8th-most destructive storm since 1980, adjusted for inflation and the growth in wealth and population. http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2011/08/29/us/politics/fivethirtyeight-0829-NU3/fivethirtyeight-0829-NU3-blog480.jpg So Irene right now ranks as the 10th-deadliest storm since 1980, with some possibility of that number going higher. And it ranks as the 8th most destructive storm economically, give or take. Meanwhile, it received about the 10th-most media coverage…’

 

 

 

As U.S. Households Save, Economy Sputters by News August 29 (The Wall Street Journal) — “Delay and pray” is not a viable fix for the household sector’s woes. Indeed, it may only be making things worse.In a marked shift from their borrow-and-spend behavior during the boom, U.S. households are now by and large prioritizing saving and debt reduction. On Monday, the Commerce Department is to release July figures likely to show the personal saving rate, or proportion of after-tax monthly income unspent, in the 5% to 5.5% range it has maintained for roughly the past 18 months.

http://www.usagold.com/pete/newsviews/20110829SavingRate.jpg

Though that remains below the 7% to 8% average of prior decades, this recent upswing is a welcome turn from the near-zero saving rates of years past.[source]

PG View: While personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 0.8% in July, the recent rise in the personal savings rate is certainly not welcomed by retailers, nor the Federal government. They dont want you to save. They want you to spend. Nothing would please them more than to see the saving rate drop back to zero or even lower. The Fed recently made it clear that they would continue to disincentivize saving by keeping short-term rates near 0% for at least another two-years. This allows banks to pay a negative yield in real-terms, below the rate of inflation. It therefore makes perfect sense to hold some of your savings in gold.

Euro bail-out in doubt as ‘hysteria’ sweeps Germany Aug 29th, 2011 by News German Chancellor Angela Merkel no longer has enough coalition votes in the Bundestag to secure backing for Europe’s revamped rescue machinery, threatening a consitutional crisis in Germany and a fresh eruption of the euro debt saga. By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard August 28 (The Telegraph) — Mrs Merkel has cancelled a high-profile trip to Russia on September 7, the crucial day when the package goes to the Bundestag and the country’s constitutional court rules on the legality of the EU’s bail-out machinery.

If the court rules that the 440bn rescue fund (EFSF) breaches Treaty law or undermines German fiscal sovereignty, it risks setting off an instant brushfire across monetary union.

The seething discontent in Germany over Europes debt crisis has spread to all the key institutions of the state. Hysteria is sweeping Germany said Klaus Regling, the EFSFs director.

German media reported that the latest tally of votes in the Bundestag shows that 23 members from Mrs Merkels own coalition plan to vote against the package, including twelve of the 44 members of Bavarias Social Christians (CSU). This may force the Chancellor to rely on opposition votes, risking a government collapse.[source]

 

New York Fed re-monetized $3.150 billion in Treasury coupons in today’s QE2.5 operation.

Aug 29th, 2011 09:30 by News

 

US NAR pending home sales -1.3% to 89.7.0 in Jul, vs 90.9 in Jun.

Aug 29th, 2011 08:29 by News

 

US personal income +0.3% in Jul, about what the market was expecting; PCE +0.8%, above expectations.

Aug 29th, 2011 08:27 by News

 

Gold lower at 1819.00 (-8.30). Silver 41.18 (-0.184). Oil better. Dollar weak. Stocks called higher. Treasuries mixed.

 

 

 

 

Prophet Economist Issues Eerie Warning. Disturbing Charts Expose “The Unthinkable.” (Moneynews)

 

The Full-Blown Correction Is Underway

 

Moving Off Gold Standard Responsible Not Only For Inflation, Deficits, Unemployment, But Also Fall Of Roman Empire

 

 

Euro bail-out in doubt as ‘hysteria’ sweeps Germany London Telegraph | If court rules €440bn rescue fund breaches Treaty law or undermines German fiscal sovereignty, it risks brushfire across monetary union.

 

 

Anonymous Announces Wall Street Occupation The Daily Bail | Anonymous has now joined forces with AdBusters in calling for a non-violent occupation of Wall Street beginning on September 17th.


 

Study shows powerful corporations really do control the world’s finances PhysOrg.com | The structure of the control network of transnational corporations affects global market competition and financial stability.

 

 

The American economy is in shambles and Bernanke has no clue what to do about it Activist Post | The private Federal Reserve has been systematically devaluing and debasing the dollar.

 

 

The mystery of the Double Eagle gold coins MSNBC | The most valuable coin in the world sits in the lobby of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in lower Manhattan.

 

 

Anonymous to occupy Wall Street – why not #surroundthefed? Keiser Report | Max Keiser and co-host Stacy Herbert discuss Anonymous joining #occupywallstreet.

 

 

Obama Job Disapproval Hits New High Daily Caller | President Obama’s disapproval rating reached its highest level to date Sunday.

 

 

(8-29-11) Dow  11,539  +255   Nasdaq  2,562  +82   S&P 500  1,210  +33   [CLOSE- OIL $87.61 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $3.59  (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS  $3.79 REG./ $3.90 MID-GRADE/$4.00 PREM./ $4.22  DIESELL) /  GOLD $1,792  (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $40.86  (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,818 (+56% for year 2009)  Metal News for the Day  / DOLLAR= .68 EURO, 76 YEN, .60 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go LOWER)/  Interest Rates:   http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield     10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.28%      AP Business Highlights       ...Yahoo Market Update...         T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies -  Domestic / International           This Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope       The bull market that never was/were  beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold                  ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’       Must Read Economic / Financial Data        This Depression is just beginning     The coming depression…  thecomingdepression.net           The Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think       Sliding Back Into the Great Depression  ABSOLUTELY, ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! 

 

 

BofA Warns Upcoming “Desperate Measures” By Authorities Will Result In Another 2008 Market Collapse Zero Hedge |

 

 

New national debt data: $4.247 Trillion in 945 days L.A. Times


Home sales approach worst point in half a century Bloomberg


Bloomberg reveals massive corruption in the private Federal Reserve Madison Ruppert


In Baltimore, homes for $10,000 — and less Baltimore Sun | Housing prices continue to fall through much of the region.

Social Security disability on verge of insolvency

 

 

 

MKM Bracing For SPY To Drop 8% More; Nasdaq Nearing August Lows at Barrons.com Murray Coleman ‘Stocks continue to slump today, reeling from a raft of ugly data and growing concerns about European sovereign debt. But how far lower can ETFs tracking key benchmarks slide? MKM Partners’ technical analyst Katie Stockton sees a range around $110 a share for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as the next level of support. That would represent about a 3-4% drop from current levels. SPY most recently was trading down 4.6% at $114.09 a share. “I do expect that level ($110) to be re-tested in coming weeks,” Stockton said in an interview, noting that level had been tested early last week and held. The problem is that her indicators show that blue chip U.S. stocks still could have a ways to go. “The market doesn’t appear oversold at this point, so the market looks like it could go lower,” Stockton said. Perhaps the most important level for SPY is the February 2010 low of $105 a share, roughly 8% below current levels. “That level hasn’t been broken on a decisive basis yet,” Stockton noted. “That’s the number we’re really keeping a close eye on after what’s taken place today.” Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq’s near-term backdrop looks just as volatile, notes Michael Ashbaugh in his Technical Trader investment letter. With Thursday’s downturn, the benchmark has knifed straight through initial support at 2,493 placing it back within August-crash territory. In the near-term, the veteran technician expects to see modest support at around 2,357 — its August closing low. That’s around 0.6% from where the index’s trading at now.’

 

 

 

Stocks Plunge, Gold Surges on Global Concern Aug 18th, 2011 14:30 by News (Bloomberg) — ‘Stocks plunged while Treasuries rallied, pushing yields to record lows, amid growing signs the economy is slowing and speculation that European banks lack sufficient capital. Gold climbed to a record, while oil led commodities lower. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index tumbled 4.5 percent to 1,140.74 at 4 p.m. in New York. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 4.8 percent in its worst plunge since March 2009 and Germany’s DAX Index slid 5.8 percent, the most since 2008. Ten-year Treasury yields fell as much as 19 basis points to 1.97 percent as rates on similar-maturity Canadian and British debt also reached all-time lows. The dollar gained versus 15 of 16 major peers, strengthening 0.6 percent to $1.4336 per euro. Gold futures rallied as much as 2.1 percent to $1,832 an ounce, while oil slid 5.9 percent.’ European Shares Fall Most Since March 2009 Aug 18th, 2011 12:01 by News (CNBC) — ‘European equities suffered their biggest daily fall in two and a half years on Thursday, as a slew of data cast further doubt on the strength of the recovery in the world’s biggest economy. German shares lost most, with traders citing the effects of a short-selling ban on financial stocks in other parts of Europe and intensifying worries about politicians’ lack of a plan to address the euro zone sovereign debt crisis. The European banking sector, exposed to the euro zone debt crisis, fell 6.6 percent and is down 29.7 percent this year.’

 

 

 

 

Jobless Claims, Inflation Rise More Than Expected CNBC | New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week.  Chavez Nationalizes Venezuela’s Gold Industry, Recalls Hundreds of Tons of Gold Held Abroad, May Cause a Scramble for Physical Gold From JP Morgan and Others    SEC destroyed crucial probe data: senator AFP | The SEC may have destroyed documents related to possible violations by major banks and hedge funds.  World stock markets plunge as fears of recession intensify guardian.co.uk   Don’t Swallow the FED’s $16 Trillion Suicide Pill Michael McKay | The Federal Reserve secretly kept the Phony-Fiat-Money-System afloat by “lending” out $16 Trillion.   GALLUP: Americans satisfied with ‘the way things are going’ — 11%! Gallup | Americans’ satisfaction with the way things are going in the United States has fallen back to 11%.

 

 

 

Stocks: Mutual Fund Investors Hate Them the Most Since Oct. 2008 at The Wall Street Journal 

Rick Perry on Ben Bernanke: Fed Chairman's Money Printing Policies Are "Almost Treasonous"at Minyanville 
The Loss of Momentum in the Markets All Too Apparent Now Bob Chapman

 

 

 

Venezuela Plans to Move Reserve Funds Aug 17th, 2011 10:35 by News August 17 (The Wall Street Journal) —‘ Venezuela plans to transfer billions of dollars in cash reserves from abroad to banks in Russia, China and Brazil and tons of gold from European banks to its central bank vaults, according to documents reviewed Tuesday by The Wall Street Journal.The planned moves would include transferring $6.3 billion in cash reserves, most of which Venezuela now keeps in banks such as the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, and Barclays Bank in London to unnamed Russian, Chinese and Brazilian banks, one document said.Venezuela also plans to move 211 tons of gold it keeps abroad and values at $11 billion to the vaults of the Venezuelan Central Bank in Caracas where the government keeps its remaining 154 tons of bullion, the document says. PG View: There have been plenty of reasons to question President Chávez’s sanity in recent years, but seeking to lessen Venezuela’s dependence on the dollar and removing assets, particularly their gold, from Western banks is actually pretty prudent. It will be interesting to see how forthcoming those Western banks will be in facilitating the repatriation of Venezuela’s gold.’ Chavez Plans on Nationalizing Gold Industry Fox Business | “I have here the laws allowing the state to exploit gold and all related activities.”

 

 

Putin sets sights on Eurasian economic union Financial Times | Twenty years after the Soviet Union collapsed, Vladimir Putin, the Russian prime minister, may not, as is sometimes alleged, be trying to recreate it.

 

Putting The Cart On Top Of The Horse, Or Why Heaping Fiscal “Stimulus” Upon “Stimulus” Is Suicide For America Zero Hedge | Feeding the government monster is, contrary to what Krugman and other Keynesians will tell you, in the current regime of coincident monetary irrigation, an exercise in futility.

 

 

 

Merkel/Sarkozy press conference: No chance of eurobond anytime soon. No expansion of ESFS. Move toward common governance.  Financial  transaction tax. Aug 16th, 2011 10:37 by News EUR rallied then retreated. Germany adds to eurozone’s woes Aug 16th, 2011 10:13 by News August 16 (Financial Times) — German economic growth slowed to a near standstill in the second quarter of this year, dealing a further, unexpected blow to the crisis-hit eurozone.The surprisingly-sharp deceleration in activity in Europe’s largest economy hit overall eurozone growth and intensified fears about the global slowdown. It also threatened to complicate the challenge facing the region’s policymakers as they seek to combat its escalating debt crisis.

 

 

Stocks Slip On Concern Over Europe's Debt, U.S. Data

Dell braces investors for a bumpy road 16 Aug 2011 Dell makes a case on why it can better weather an upcoming storm with more higher margin businesses...

S&P says sell Google's shares after Motorola deal

Ron Paul on Texas Straight Talk: U.S. Government Debt Is Becoming Worthless

 

 

 

 

How Low Will Stocks Go? at Minyanville  By MoneyShow.com Aug 12, 2011  Up 500 points one day, down 500 the next. That’s the way the market is these days.

On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 520 points, erasing all of Tuesday’s gains from the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep short-term interest rates near zero. As of noon Thursday, it’s up about 250.

By Wednesday’s close, the Dow had lost 2,000 points, or more than 15% of its value, since July 21. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes lost slightly more during that time. All three are perilously close to the 20% decline from the late April-early May top that many pundits (particularly in the media) use as a rule of thumb to determine a bear market.

Unfortunately, I think stocks have still lower to go. How low? Later in this column I’ll tell you what some respected technical analysts think.

But let’s start with the fundamentals.

First, the economy. Need I say more? Jobless figures were somewhat better in June, but economists have revised downward their estimates of GDP growth. Measures of consumer confidence are pretty weak.

And did anybody get the real message the Federal Open Market Committee put out Tuesday? The economy is so sick, the Fed is willing to guarantee exceptionally low rates for two years! I’ve never seen the Fed telegraph its moves so far in advance, and the FOMC’s statement said over and over again how lousy the economy is.

Meanwhile, the open rebellion by three voting FOMC members makes it highly unlikely we’re going to see another round of quantitative easing anywhere near as big as the last two.

Third, there’s the debt crisis. Everyone agrees the European Union just doesn’t have the money to bail out Italy and Spain, its third and fourth largest economies, if it comes to that. Rumors are swirling about the health of French banks and the safety of France’s AAA rating.

And the debt-ceiling standoff here, which culminated in S&P downgrading the US’s AAA credit rating, means more government action to “fix” the economy is likely off the table.

So there’s no way President Obama will get much additional stimulus. He’s desperately trying to extend unemployment benefits and the payroll tax holiday for another year, but that looks pretty iffy at best. (You can read more from me about the "end of the welfare state" on The Independent Agenda.)

Finally, there are earnings, which have been great. But we’re getting much later in the cycle, and their momentum appears to be slowing. It’s hard for me to see how earnings growth alone is going to power the market much higher when everything else appears to be going in the opposite direction.

And while valuations are looking attractive by some measures, they don’t exist in a vacuum, either.

So, where does that leave us? Four prominent technical analysts I contacted all agreed: Stocks are heading lower, likely into a new bear market.

David Sneddon, head of technical analysis research at Credit Suisse in London, said the 1,370.58 intraday high in the S&P we saw on May 2 was the likely top. There’s critical technical support around 1,100, which is just about from where the market bounced back this week. So far, we seem to be holding that.

The next level of technical support below that is at 1,020-1,022. “You’d have to get below [1,000-1,010] to have a genuine bear market.”

Another London-based technician, Sandy Jadeja of City Index, who watches the Dow, thinks that’s where we’re going.

A few weeks ago, he predicted the Dow would drop to 10,428, which it did. Now, he told me by e-mail, “the rally that follows will be brief, and then lead to another leg down to 9,673 and further.”

“Lows are not to be expected until 2012,” he concluded. “Next month is critical. If we break the low of August in September, there is worse to come.”

 

Mark Arbeter, chief technical analyst of Standard & Poor’s, said back in May and June that the bull market was probably over, as I reported in this column. He hasn’t changed his position.

By e-mail, he said he “would look for some stabilization and a potential short-term rally now that the S&P 500 has fallen into a major zone of chart support…between 1,023 and 1,128.”

Ultimately he thinks the S&P could fall to 1,020, or maybe as low as 935. That would be 15% below Wednesday’s close, and would definitely mark a new bear market.

Michael Kahn, who writes the Getting Technical column for Barrons.com and the QuickTakes Pro blog, has long argued we’re in a secular (long-term) bear market, and he thinks the cyclical bull is over, too. Like Arbeter, he sees 1,010 to 1,050 as the next level of support for the S&P, and below that 930.

“I think it stops at 930 to make the 2000s-2010s follow the 1970s very closely,” he wrote me by e-mail. That’s one decade for which investors have little nostalgia.

The technicians are unanimous that stocks are going lower, though some are looking for a strong rally that goes against the bearish trend. Arbeter doesn’t expect that rally to go much beyond 1,250-1,260 before it sells off again. Sneddon doesn’t think it’ll bounce much higher than 1,200.

“We’ve clearly seen a lot of technical damage done in a lot of markets,” he told me. “I would be personally [inclined] rather to lighten up and reduce my positions” on rallies.

That would be my position, too, if I hadn’t already taken profits and sold what I wanted to a couple of months ago.

If you missed that chance, I wouldn’t sell in panic now, but would wait for stocks to mount a rebound to sell off positions in riskier small-cap stocks (which already may be in a bear market) and emerging markets, whose time in the sun has come and gone. That also may be a good time to permanently reduce your exposure to equities.

But I certainly wouldn’t buy into a market like this with all its wicked swings and uncertainties. Even mighty Goldman Sachs (GS) lost money on 15 trading days in the second quarter! And John Paulson, the hedge-fund genius who masterminded “the greatest trade ever” by shorting subprime mortgages, has lost 31% so far this year in his largest fund.

If people like that who have the best information and technology are losing money in this market, do you really think you’re going to beat them at their own game?

There will be a time to buy again, but it’s not now. This market is heading lower.’


Editor's Note: This article was written by Howard R. Gold, editor at large for MoneyShow.com. 

 

 

 

Five Reasons for the Stock Market Crash and Zero Interest Rate 11 Aug 2011  Read more: Five Reasons for the Stock Market Crash and Zero Interest Rate    http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Stock-Market-Interest-Rate/2011/08/11/id/406976  Its said that the stock market climbs a wall of worry. Because the stock market is trying to predict the future success or failures of various companies, it sometimes gets things wrong. Horribly, terribly wrong.

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling like a rock, with wild swings not seen since the stock market crash of 2008, many investors are on the verge of panic. It
s easy to see why. The Federal Reserve is committed to keeping interest rates near zero until mid-2013 at the earliest. Those low interest rates penalize investors on a fixed income who dont want the risk of the stock market.

Publisher
s Note: In an exclusive interview presentation, Aftershock 2012, Robert Wiedemer outlines a dire financial warning along with a comprehensive blueprint for economic survival. Over one million Americans have seen the evidence and learned how to weather the stock market, secure interest rates, and save their financial future. Watch the video now.

But investors who understand the reasons behind the latest decline in the stock market have little to fear. Below are five reasons why the stock market is crashing right now:

1) Current Debt Crisis in Europe and the United States

Between record high bond rates in Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland, the eurozone has its hands full in dealing with too much debt relative to the size of its various economies. As a result of the poor bond performance from these countries, Europe is on the cusp of plunging into a banking crisis. Such a crisis could send interest rates soaring for “prime” countries like France and Germany, not to mention throw the continent into a recession.

Across the Atlantic, the United States isn’t faring much better. The recent debt ceiling drama concluded at the 11th hour, with very little in the way of true cuts. Instead, the government has promised to cut future growth, which may or may not even occur. No wonder S&P downgraded U.S. debt!

Ultimately, it isn’t risky assets like stocks that cause economic problems. Markets sell off when seemingly safe assets are suddenly recognized as significantly riskier than they were once perceived.

2) United States Government Is at an Impasse

As part of the recent debt ceiling deal, Congress approved the creation of a bipartisan super-committee comprised of 12 members to fast-track legislation. The constitutionality of such a committee is dubious at best, but it’s just one way for Washington lawmakers to pass off responsibility and avoid tough decisions.

It doesn’t end there. The Federal Reserve has tried two rounds of “quantitative easing,” a scheme to buy up excess debt. The rationale was that it would get the U.S. economy back on track. Instead, this plan juiced the returns of the stock market, and sent gas prices and grocery costs soaring.

Meanwhile, Congressional Republicans are calling for the ouster of Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner as a consequence of the U.S. losing its S&P AAA credit rating.

In other words, it’s business as usual for the government: trying to fix a crisis that’s largely the result of its own poor oversight, while avoiding any responsibility for causing the problem in the first place.

3) U.S. Unemployment Is Running Over 15%!

As long as the U.S. economy isn’t creating enough new jobs, it will stagnate. Although the unemployment rate has declined from the double-digit rates it hit in 2009/2010, many astute individuals have noted that the latest unemployment report is inaccurate.

Using the measurement for unemployment used by the government up until the early 1980s, true unemployment is running over 15%!

Meanwhile, many thrown out of work have exhausted their unemployment benefits, which in some cases lasted as long as 99 weeks. Once off unemployment, they officially disappear from the official unemployed list, making the job market appear better than expected.

Adding millions of jobs would be the best economic stimulus possible. It would allow millions to loosen their belts and spend more, which would be a huge boon across the entire economy.

Publisher’s Note: Author and esteemed economist Bob Wiedemer accurately predicted these events more than four years ago. Over one million Americans have seen the evidence and learned how to weather the stock market, secure interest rates, and save their financial future. Watch the video now.

4) United States Has No Economic Growth

Historically, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates to increase economic growth. That’s because lower interest rates make it easier for individuals to borrow money to buy cars, houses, start small businesses and the like. However, there’s been nearly no growth since the United States plunged into a recession in 2008. And the Federal Reserve can’t cut rates any lower.

There’s no doubt in the minds of many market participants that more Fed easing policies are on the way, especially after America’s first-quarter GDP was revised from 1.9% to 0.4%.

The stock market’s moves are highly dependent on economic growth. If an individual company can post huge growth numbers, its shares tend to go up, and its shares tend to decline when growth stalls. When a country’s GDP is stagnant, investors don’t know what to expect. Hence the recent stock market plunge, as economic data may suggest that another recession is upon us.

5) No Housing Recovery

The stock market crash of 2011 is starting to resemble the stock market crash of 2008 in one key way: Bank stocks are leading the decline. Since the start of August, banks deemed “too big to fail” like Citigroup and Bank of America have sold off twice as hard as the overall stock market.

It’s easy to see why. Banks are sitting on millions of properties listed on their balance sheets at pre-housing crash prices. If all these properties hit the market at once, prices would have to fall substantially. If the banks have to sell them at a loss, they’ll take a hit to their balance sheet at a time when they’re still trying to improve it.

A housing recovery can spur job growth for construction jobs, real estate agents, and businesses in new communities. But we currently have a housing glut that will take several years to work through.

Until then, without a housing recovery, it’ll be tough for the overall economy to recover. That means the stock market is in for a wild ride and low interest rates are here to stay.

While these five reasons aren’t a comprehensive list of the problems weighing down the stock market and keeping interest rates paltry, they should give most investors a reason to stay cautious over the next few months.

Based on the market’s action and recent economic data, it’s more likely than not we’re entering a double-dip recession. Stay heavy on safe investments and don’t give into the fear.


Read more: Five Reasons for the Stock Market Crash and Zero Interest Rate
Important: Can you afford to Retire? Shocking Poll Results …’

 

Stocks Overbought Already?at The Wall Street Journal

 

Are US Markets Facing the Abyss? [ Short answer: Worse! ] at Minyanville   Jeffrey Cooper Aug 15, 2011

As soon as the idea of the Deluge had subsided, a hare stopped in the clover and swaying flowerbells, and said a prayer to the rainbow, through the spiders web.

Oh, the precious stones that began to hide, and the flowers that already looked around.

In the dirty main street, stalls were set up and boats were hauled toward the sea, high tiered as in old prints.

Blood flowed at Blue Beard
s -- though slaughterhouses, in circuses, where the windows were blanched by Gods seal. Blood and milk flowed.

Beavers built.
Mazagrans smoked in the little bars.

In the big glass house, still dripping, children in mourning looked at the marvelous pictures.

A door banged; and in the village square the little boy waved his arms, understood by weather vanes and cocks on steeples everywhere, in the bursting shower.

Madame installed a piano in the Alps. Mass and first communions were celebrated at the hundred thousand altars of the cathedral.

Caravans set out. And Hotel Splendid was built in the chaos of ice and the polar night.

Ever after the moon heard jackals howling across the deserts of thyme, and eclogues in wooden shoes growling in the orchard. Then in the violet and budding forest, Eucharis told me it was spring.

Gush, pond -- foam, roll on the bridge and over the woods -- black palls and organs, lightning and thunder, rise and roll -- waters and sorrows rise and launch the Floods again.

For since they have been dissipated -- oh, the precious stones being buried and the opened flowers -- it
s unbearable. And the Queen, the Witch who lights her fire in the earthen pot will never tell us what she knows, and what we do not know.

--Apres Le Deluge, Arthur Rimbaud

"Yeah, keep your eyes on the road, your hands upon the wheel...
Let it roll, baby, roll.
"
-Roadhouse Blues (The Doors)

Somebody hit her with a chair, you know. I guess theres no way to determine who did it. Its already coagulating. She was just an innocent bystander. Its a democracy.
-Jim Morrison

There are things known and there are things unknown, and in between are the doors of perception.
-Aldous Huxley

That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons that History has to teach.
-Aldous Huxley

Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad.
-Aldous Huxley

The market went mad last week. The truth of capitalism was in chaos, democracy in disarray, and paralyzed politics hit home. The truth hurts.

And the Queen, the Witch who lights her fire in the earthen pot will never tell us what she knows, and what we do not know.

Seemingly in unison, market participants' heads hit their pillows Friday night with a thousand points of night running like shards of broken confidence through their minds.

The consumer confidence number hit the lowest level in a generation as the retail therapy of conspicuous consumption threatens to hit the wall.

Anesthetized with lies and sedated with stimulus, is the consumer shopped out and about to send a wake-up call to Mr. Economy?

At the end of World War II, no power existed which could compete with the US militarily or economically.

The US had saved the world from the scourge of dictatorship.

In return, the Bretton-Woods Agreement in the Summer of 1944 also gave us the monetary power to print the world
s currency. We promised it would always be convertible into gold at the rate of $35 per ounce. This proviso was between the worlds central banks and ours. It remained true until August 15, 1971 when President Nixon voided the agreement because French President de Gaulle was about to make a run on our gold, which he knew wasnt sufficient to back up all of the currency then floating around in the worlds central banks. De Gaulle was about to precipitate a kind of run on the bank.

Son of a gun.

Is this a harmonic of the rumors that Dominique Strauss-Kahn -- former head of the IMF who was about to run for the French presidency -- was set up in a hotel in New York because he was about to reveal something about the gold that is or is not in Fort Knox?

Ever since the Bretton Woods Agreement was broken 40 years ago today, the dollar has been wandering in a sort of financial Biblical desert, characterized by the last decade of bubbles and busts.

The monthly S&P shows 3 persistent advances: a 5-year run into March 2000, a 4-year run into July 2007, and a 2-year run in May 2011.

The March 2000 top saw a break and a return rally/test failure into late August 2000. The July 2007 top saw a break and a return rally that made a marginal new high test failure in October 2007. Both of these tests failures of the high came roughly 90 days/degrees later.

In 2011 an initial peak played out on February 18th. A test failure played out with a marginal new high roughly 90 days/degrees later.

In
How Mid-September 2008 Ties To The July 2010 Low And Today from late June, I walked through the setup for a waterfall decline.

The March
03 low was 788 which is where the big advance to 2007 began. 2 x 788 gives the price of the S&P all-time high in 2007.

From the March 6, 2009 low to the May 2, 2011 high is 787 days.

Time was
up this May, but the S&P didnt roll over until the anniversary of the July 07 high.

From August 1971 to August 2011 is 480 months. On the Square of 9 Wheel, 480 is square 90 degrees of August 24th.

August 24th is opposite this year's February 18th peak.

The end of the month also ties to the pre-crash high in 1987, the pre-crash high in 1929, and the return rally high in 2000.

The end of August vibrates off major crashes in history.

In addition, early September ties to the 120-month anniversary of 9/11 and the 1000 point DJIA bungee following that crash.

Will an ABC retracement rally following our recent crash be able to satisfy my projection early last week of a 1000 DJIA rally?

Will the end of the month/early September mark a retracement high or a new low?{PAGE_BREA}Surprisingly, after violating the Bretton Woods agreement, the world kept on functioning as though the US dollar was still as good as gold. The only limit on our power to print money was the world
s willingness to continue tolerating our enormous abuse of this power. In effect, it gave us the power to soak up the savings of others around the world in order for us to consume. It was a giddy time.

It was a giddy-up time for politicians intent on spending to buy votes and the incestuous target they created for lobbyists.

Americans then had a free ride in financial matters to take the labor of others and use them to their benefit. We no longer had to produce. We could just let others do the producing and all that we needed to do was print more money and pay them off.

That illusion is ebbing.

Technically, the market looks like it is creeping higher to finish off an ABC upward correction from 1190 to 1225, which should see the market quickly fall to lower lows. The mid-point of equilibrium between the 666 low and the 1371 high equates to 1018. A decline to 1018 could be a test of the 1011 low in July 2010.

1190 is the mid-point from the July 2010 low to the May 2011 high.

1225 ties to last year's double tops.

A full backtest of the big neckline ties to 1250ish.

This week the market will tie to the chance for an Upside Follow Through Day -- a day with a substantial gain on substantial volume at least 4 days after a low.

This week is also options expiration, so a possible C wave corrective rally could theoretically see the market hold up into the end of the week.

However, without a big momentum day to hook the shorts, the market will drift before another leg down targeting 1040ish to 940ish.

We have been looking for a blow out low near mid-August based primarily on the cycle from 1951.

The closing lows for two sessions near 1121 aligns with mid-August on the Square of 9 Wheel. Only above 1260 does the market suggest something else other than a new bear leg is playing out.

We don
t want to short if a washout has occurred like in August 2007. As we asked in a report last week, is this a blow-out low or a mid-point for a move lower?

At the same time it
s tricky to go long here between 1190 and 1225: the vast majority of technicals indicate a new bear leg. While many stocks are improving they have not repaired the damage.

A lot of comparisons have been made between the current cascade in stocks and 2008. Memory is short on Wall Street, but not that short. It is possible that money managers and robots alike sold first and will ask questions later so as not to be mangled in a another train wreck.

But this is not like 2008 in the sense that the Crash in the Fall of 2008 was a second leg down.

Modern markets haven
t seen a drop off a peak or pivot high from late July like we just witnessed. It was worse that last years Flash Crash in May 2010. It is worse than the initial sell-off in late 2008.

Even on Black Monday in 1987, stocks were decimated in virtually one day and it was over. This one has been a Roller Coaster Crash.

While the market has echoed the Flying Elvis Pattern that installed a low from mid-July 2010, it remains extremely risky as the sharpness and steepness of the selloff leaves it/left it primed for a reflex rally.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/cooper/0811/15/ARCX_SPY_D%20--%20SPDR%20S&P%20500%20TRUST.gif

At the same time, as offered in a chart in this space in late July, the set up for a waterfall crash like 1929 was in place and that pattern may not have played out completely.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/cooper/0811/15/DJIA%201929%20Daily.gif%20final.jpg

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/cooper/0811/15/ARCX_GLD_D%20--%20SPDR%20GOLD%20SHARES.gif   

 

Rickards – US will revalue gold to $7000  Aug 15th, 2011 15:10 by News  August 15 (King World News) — ‘ He (Nixon) said first of all I am imposing national price controls because there was an inflation problem in the United States at the time. The second thing he said was I am putting a 10% surtax of imports on all imported goods coming into the United States. Then about 10 minutes into the speech, very much en passant, he said, ‘Oh by the way we are suspending the convertibility of dollars into gold’ and he immediately went into this Nixonian rant about speculators. So it was very interesting, there were three earth-shaking announcements. Can you imagine any one of those three things going on today? President Obama or any President saying he was going to impose nationwide price controls, or all Chinese goods would have a 10% surcharge. It would be cataclysmic, yet Nixon did both of those things. Plus (Nixon) took us off the gold standard, so it was quite a dramatic speech. In a strange way he did us all a favor by making sure we (the US) held on to the gold. So I do think the United States is in a position to revalue the currency using gold to that $7,000 level. That will obviously be a huge benefit to all of the people who invested in gold because they are going to be along for the ride, along with the United States when that gold goes to $7,000.” Excerpted from an interview that is available here.



Fed Pledge Let's You Know The Fix Is In  Forbes  Peter Schiff Last weeks wild actions on Wall Street should serve as a stark reminder that few investors have any clue as to what is really going on beneath the surface of Americas troubled economy. It did bring startling clarity on at least one front. In its August policy statement the Federal Reserve took the highly unusual step of putting a specific time frame for the continuation of its near zero interest rate policy.

Moving past the previously uncertain pronouncements that they would keep interest rates low for an extended period, the Fed now tells us that rates will not budge from rock bottom for at least two years. Although the markets rallied on the news (at least for a few minutes) in reality the policy will inflict untold harm on the U.S. economy. The move was so dangerous and misguided that three members of the Feds Open Market Committee actually voted against it. This level of dissent within the Fed hasnt been seen for years.

Many economists have short-sightedly concluded that ultra low interest rates are a sure fire way to spur economic growth. The easier and cheaper it is to borrow, they argue, the more likely business and consumers are to spend. And because spending spurs growth, in their calculation, low rates are always good. But, as is typical, they have it backwards.

I believe that ultra-low interest rates are among the biggest impediments currently preventing genuine economic growth in the US economy. By committing to keep them near zero for the next two years, the Fed has actually lengthened the time Americans will now have to wait before a real recovery begins. Low rates are the root cause of the misallocation of resources that define the modern American economy. As a direct result, Americans borrow, consume, and speculate too much, while we save, produce, and invest too little.

It may come as a shock to some, but just like everything else in a free market, interest rate levels are best determined by the freely interacting forces of supply and demand. In the case of interest rates, the determinative factors should be the supply of savings available to lend and the demand for money by people and business who want to borrow. Many of the beneficial elements of market determined rates are explained in my book How an Economy Grows and Why it Crashes. But allowing the government to determine interest rates as a matter of policy creates a number of distortions.

It was bad enough that the Fed held rates far too low, but at least a fig leaf of uncertainty kept the most brazen speculators in partial paralysis. But by specifically telegraphing policy, the Fed has now given cover to the most parasitic elements of the financial sector to undertake transactions that offer no economic benefit to the nation. Specifically, it will simply encourage banks to borrow money at zero percent from the Fed, and then use significant leverage to buy low yielding treasuries at 2 to 4 percent. The result is a bankers dream: guaranteed low risk profit. In other words it will encourage banks to lend to the government, which already borrows too much, and not lend to private borrowers, whose activity could actually benefit the economy.

This reckless policy, designed to facilitate government spending and appease Wall Street financiers, will continue to starve Main Street of the capital it needs to make real productivity-enhancing investments. American investment capital will continue to flow abroad, denying local business the means to expand and hire. It also destroys interest rates paid to holders of bank savings deposits which traditionally had been a financial pillar of retirees. In addition, such an inflationary policy drives real wages lower, robbing Americans of their purchasing power. The consequence is a dollar in free-fall, dragging down with it the standard of living of average Americans.

Until interest rates are allowed to rise to appropriate levels, more resources will be misallocated, additional jobs will be lost, government spending and deficits will continue to grow, the dollar will keep falling, consumer prices will keep rising, and the government will keep blaming our problems on external factors beyond its control. As the old adage goes, insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. 

Peter Schiff is CEO of Euro Pacific Capital.

Related Posts:

 

 

 

Train Reading: The Stock Market Is Insane The Wall Street Journal

The stock market has lost its mind Bethany McLean in Slate

Are US banks turning Japanese? FT Alphaville

Hows that austerity working out for you, UK? Econbrowser

Can Jeremy Grantham profit from ecological mayhem? NY Times Magazine

Authors and critics reveal which lit classics they consider overrated Slate

Its not so easy applying Moneyball principles to soccer WSJ 

 

 

THE STOCK MARKET HAS LOST ITS MIND Bethany McLean in Slate Risk On! Do the Fed, computer trading, and a few hedge funds rule the market? That might explain why it's lost its mind. After the madness of last week and the rollercoaster at the beginning of this week, the stock market recovered from its Aug. 10 rout to bounce 423 points on Aug. 11. It was the fourth day in a row in which the index moved by more than 400 points, which has never happened before in history. As I write this, stock prices are leveling off, but the big swings may not be over. Has the market gone mad? Actually, yes.

In theory, the stock market is supposed to reflect the prospects for the economythe earnings potential of the stocks that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average. But there's more than one reason to believe that what's going on now has little to do with any rational view of the future, and a lot to do with the market itself. "Dip your toes into any risk asset right now and understand that you are not entering into anything remotely resembling a normal market environment," wrote David Rosenberg, the well-respected former Merrill Lynch analyst who is now the chief economist at Canadian firm Gluskin Sheff, in his recent newsletter. "Dysfunctional is more like it."

The first factor to consider is that the huge rebound in stocks and in all sorts of risk assets from the spring of 2009 until May of this year wasn't necessarily driven by a belief that better times were coming. It was driven by a belief that investors had to buy riskier assets given the Fed's determination to hold interest rates near zero. Because investors can't get a return in "safe" assetsindeed, a small return will get chewed up by inflationthey are driven to riskier assets. As more investors pile in, everyone is driven further out along the risk curve.

This is what traders call "risk on." What they mean is that you'll be rewarded for buying risk, regardless of reality. The Fed's second round of quantitative easing ("QE2"), in which it bought $600 billion of Treasuries in order to keep interest rates low, encouraged this investment strategy. "We had a nice two-year rally in risk assets and something close to an economic recovery, but as we had warned, it was built on sticks and straw, not bricks," wrote Rosenberg. "This isn't much different than the financial engineering in the 2002-07 cycle that gave off the appearance of prosperity."

 The Fed intended this to end happily. The fake wealth created by a soaring market was supposed to turn into real wealth, because rich people, who control much of the economy and who have much of their money in the market, were supposed to spend more. But it hasn't worked, partly because of problems in the rest of the worldthe tsunami in Japan, the financial crisis that's brewing in Europeand partly because our own economy is too deep in hock to achieve the necessary stimulus. As Howard Marks, the chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, put it in his recent letter, "The world has awakened to the undesirability of ever-growing government debt."

You can think of the Fed's medicine as a painkiller. It allows everyone to pretend that bad stuff isn't happening, until something shatters the illusion and the comfortable numbness abruptly gives way to panic. There's massive selling. Then the Fed reassures everyone that its toolbox isn't empty just yetwitness the big upturn on Aug. 9 after the Fed said it would likely hold rates near zero until mid-2013 (a worthless prediction if inflation surges)and the market soars. Risk on!

It's hard to develop any real conviction about the direction of the market when so much depends on the actions of the Federal Reserve. That's especially true because even the members of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee aren't all in agreement. Three members voted against the Fed's Aug. 9 announcement. Complicating matters is that the short term direction of the real economy is also at the mercy of the government. The key line in this Wall Street Journal story: "As goes government spending, so goes the U.S. economy."

Another possible factor in the madness is forced selling by big hedge funds. There are rumors that funds are getting hit by margin calls, or that funds that are having a bad year are getting redemption requests from investors, thereby forcing them to sell. Most of the gossip has focused on John Paulson (the hedge fund manager who famously made his fortune by shorting securities backed by subprime mortgages), given the big positions he was known to have in stocks that have gotten trashed. But if Paulson is hurting, he's probably not alone. "No way big guys could have gotten out," one trader tells me via email. "Big hedge funds with all the same big positions. This move down happened so fast that they are trapped." If this theory is right, then sudden rallies like Thursday's upturn will be followed by more selling, as hedge funds take advantage of the ability to get out.

The last explanation I've heard is that most of the buying and selling hasn't been driven by real people, but rather by computers. Hello, HAL 9000! In the last five years, computer-driven trading, whether controversial high-frequency trading or just programs that buy baskets of stocks based on technical figures, has become a bigger and bigger part of the market. Depending on how you define it, sources tell me it constitutes 70 percent to 90 percent of trading now. "The human element is gone," one trader tells me. At least some people believe that the presence of computers exacerbates the big moves up and down. According to this paper by X. Frank Zhang, an associate professor of accounting at the Yale School of Management, "high frequency trading is positively correlated with stock price volatility." Zhang goes on to say that the "positive correlation is stronger among the top 3,000 stocks in market capitalization and among stocks with high institutional holdings. The positive correlation is also stronger during periods of high market uncertainty." Zhang's academic work is supported by the observations of those who have been in the market for a long time. "I suspect that the real culprits here are the computers Wall Street has programmed and unleashed to trade and manage portfolios," wrote John Bollinger, who has been publishing his Capital Growth Letter for more than two decades. "The sort of mindless selling that we are seeing is most likely the result of machines trading and human beings desperately trying to keep up with them."

Should you buy? Should you sell? No one knows. The world is always an uncertain place, but right now it's more uncertain than usual, whether about the ultimate resolution of Europe's crisis or about how the U.S. will reduce its debt and get the economy growing again. Or perhaps I should say reduce its debt or get the economy growing, since it's unlikely to achieve both at the same time. This inability to guess what the future holds means that madness rules.

 

Withdrawals From Stock Funds Biggest Since 08  Aug 12th, 2011 15:32 by News (Bloomberg) Investors pulled the most money from global stock funds since 2008 in the past week as the Standard & Poors downgrade of Treasuries and the deepening European debt crisis prompted a flight into cash and gold. Funds that buy global equities suffered $3.5 billion in net withdrawals in the week ended Aug. 10, the most since the second week of October 2008, according to Cameron Brandt, director of research at Cambridge, Massachusetts-based EPFR Global. Investors removed $11.7 billion from funds that invest in U.S. equities, the most since May 2010 when investors pulled money following a one-day market crash that briefly erased $862 billion.This week had a feeling of capitulation as we saw investors running for cover, Brandt said in a telephone interview. The last time we saw this kind of flight to safety was in 2008, he said.

 

 

U.S. Consumer Confidence Drops to Three-Decade Low Amid Economic Headwinds  Aug 12th, 2011 13:10 by News (Bloomberg) — ‘Confidence among U.S. consumers plunged in August to the lowest level since May 1980, adding to concern that weak employment gains and volatility in the stock market will prompt households to retrench.The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment slumped to 54.9 from 63.7 the prior month. The gauge was projected to decline to 62, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.’

 

 

 

 

 

Pity the Policymakers  July 21st, 2011 by News  by Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) — ‘I don’t know about you, but whenever I am in an airplane experiencing turbulence, I draw comfort from the belief that the pilots sitting behind the cockpit’s closed door know what to do. I would feel very differently if, through an open door, I observed pilots who were frustrated at the poor responsiveness of the plane’s controls, arguing about their next step, and getting no help whatsoever from the operator’s manuals. So it is unsettling that policymakers in many Western economies today resemble the second group of pilots. This perception reflects not only the contradictory pronouncements and behavior of policymakers, but also the extent to which economic outcomes have consistently fallen short of their expectations.This perception is evident in Europe, the United States, and Japan, where indicators of economic sentiment are deteriorating again, already-weak recoveries are stalling, and over-stretched balance sheets are becoming even more precarious.’

 

 

 

Greek finance minister brushes off downgrade [ Sounds like a plan! ]

 

 

 

Is America The Next Greece? at Forbes Marc Schindler ‘After many years of overeating (overspending) Greece is in the emergency room with a major financial heart attack and America isn’t far behind.

The doctors (IMF, European finance ministers, the ECB, etc.) are running around trying to save it. Open heart surgery (loans guaranteed by others) has averted the immediate crisis, but Greece is just as overweight today as it was before the crisis. Attempts to lose weight through exercise (austerity measures) cause serious chest pains (riots). The doctors dont want to admit it, but all signs point to a heart transplant (default) as the only way to get Greece onto its feet again.

Greece isnt the only one. It is a veritable epidemic. Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain and a host of other countries are having chest pains. Iceland is feeling better now with its freshly transplanted heart. The American home owner is still in the hospital from his financial heart attack after gobbling up vast quantities of real estate, and it has been many decades since Uncle Sam last could see his toes.

By most accounts (e.g. here or Bill Gross statements in a recent interview) total hidden government liabilities add up to about $60-$100 trillion. That is on top of the $14 trillion of debt carried on the balance sheet. Adding up those liabilities, the US owes at least five times GDP, which currently sits at about $15 trillion. For comparison, Greeces debt is about 1.5 times its GDP.

This is not really a fair comparison, because it leaves out any hidden liabilities Greece may have. The US debt figure includes unfunded entitlements, state and local debt, and underfunded public pensions. Nevertheless, it is clear that this is an unsustainable debt load even if the estimates turn out to be off by a factor of two or four.

Uncle Sam is already more overweight than Greece ever was. If he doesnt change his ways, he will end up in the hospital like Greece, but at present he is partying like there is no tomorrow, gorging himself on entitlement spending, costly wars, bailouts, subsidies, and countless other delicacies.

Perhaps it would not be such a bad thing if the talks about raising the debt limit failed. After Uncle Sam suffers the resulting self-inflicted mild heart attack (temporary default) and finds out how much fun it is to fetch up in the emergency room, he might be more inclined to take care of himself, slim down, and stick with an exercise regime.

Some kind of a wakeup call is necessary while there is still time to deal with our debt problem. The only way to address it is for Washington to do its job: get everybody to recognize that there is a problem, find a solution that demands some sacrifices from everyone, and work together across party lines to implement it. In the current political environment that does not seem to be possible. Something needs to change the environment. Greece shows that the alternative is not pretty.

 

 

Corporate Earnings Soar Amidst a Dismal Job MarketWall St. Cheat Sheet [That game’s about to end! In fact, that game’s over!  Dave's Daily  'If you can keep interest rates this low this long, its inevitable cheap financing can allow companies to start cobbling each other up. Further Ben's policies allow companies like IBM to sell bonds at 1% and buy back shares with the proceeds (total paper bubble-scam). POMO is occurring almost daily and Primary Dealers can buy back their shares and pay dividends with what essentially is taxpayer money-- ]

 

 

Standing on the precipice – and ready to jump  July 21st, 2011 News By Wolfgang Münchau ( Financial Times) — ‘It looks like there will be deal on a eurozone package for Greece. The full details are still missing, but it appears that the eurozone is forcing Greece into a selective default. As part of such a package, short-term Greek debt will be more or less forcibly converted into long-term debt. The wretched bank tax is mercifully off the table. And the European financial stability facility will most likely be allowed to purchase Greek debt at a discount. LET US NOT MINCE WORDS HERE. THIS WOULD BE A DEFAULT, THE FIRST BY A WESTERN INDUSTRIALISED COUNTRY IN A GENERATION. I am not quite sure how it is possible for the European Central Bank to agree to this, or to all of this. But I will surely be intrigued to hear how Jean-Claude Trichet will manage to be consistent with what he said a few days ago. There are also reports that the eurozone leaders may accept a more flexible EFSF beyond those bond purchases.’

 

 

 

State Finances Are Worse Than You Think at Forbes

 

 

 

So Far, Market Ignoring Dire Warnings at Minyanville

 

 

 

The Greater Depression Is Upon Us by David Galland http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig10/galland34.1.html  Casey Research Recently by David Galland: The Road to Perdition  The phrase Greater Depression was coined by Doug Casey a decade or so back as a way of describing the economic crisis he foresaw as inevitable, and which is now materializing.

Because I think it is important for every organization to constantly challenge its own assumptions, Ive long acted as something of a devils advocate here at Casey Research. By constantly pushing our analysts to revisit their assumptions and calculations, it is my firm intention for us to spot the fork in the road that indicates it is time to shift strategies away from investments designed to do well in the face of a currency debasement and to something else.

Being attentive to that fork in the road is hugely important, because even though we urge our subscribers not to overdo their exposure to inflation hedges, we recognize that many do. Many a good person had their clocks cleaned in the early 1980s solely because they had become overly enamored of their precious metals so much so that they stopped thinking of them as an asset class and began thinking of them more in the terms one might associate with an amorous dinner date. Thus these investors were utterly unprepared when said date stood up and broke a dinner plate over their heads.

With that brief setup, I want to make our views clear: While we correctly anticipated the recent correction in precious metals, this correction is but a blip in a secular bull market that is very much intact.

Doug Casey has often said that the unfolding crisis is going to be even worse than he expects (which is saying something), and the longer the rest of us at Casey Research study the tea leaves, it is hard to disagree that the Greater Depression is still ahead.

Consider:

 

 

 

Watch Out: 2011 Looks A Lot Like The Market Top In 2007 at Forbes  Sean Hanlon  Back on December 12, 2007 I wrote a market commentary that started as follows:

The equity markets have been very volatile this year, but also range bound.  A picture speaks a thousand words so all one needs to do is view the chart below of the S&P 500 Index to understand just how volatile and range bound things have been.  Specifically, since February 20, 2007, only nine and one half months or so ago, the S&P 500 Index has been down 5.86%, up 13.02%, down 9.43%, up 11.26%, down 10.09%,
and now up 7.73%
through 12/10/07 so far in this
latest up leg!  All this in ONLY nine and one half months!

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/advisor/files/2011/07/market-commentary-1.jpg

History is repeating itself so far in 2011, which has been fraught with ups and downs in both international and domestic equity markets.  This is due to many things, including the considerable economic doubts and various countries debt situations. This uncertainty has translated into market performance with direct impacts on portfolio returns and more prominently in portfolio volatility. This volatility is best seen in the chart below of the S&P 500 Index beginning 1/1/11.

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/advisor/files/2011/07/market-commentary-2.jpg

2010 ended positivity and the momentum carried into the first two months of 2011 however the end of February began a series of events that led market returns on a whipsaw ride of ups and downs, resulting in the current universal mid-year views of market uncertainty.

What news was associated with this volatility? All the usual; crude oil prices, natural disasters, corporate earnings, politics, economic forecast revisions for both developed and emerging markets, the European debt situation, the United States debt situation and more to name just a few.

One thing is for certain; the current volatile, range bound market activity is difficult at best to profit from.  In this investing environment patience is the most important attribute.  I will be patient and will be careful until the trends are preferable.

Our strategy at Hanlon Investment Management is to attempt to minimize downside risk by exiting risk asset classes, such as equities, during periods of uncertainty, getting invested in more conservative asset classes, such as money markets and short-term bonds, and re-entering into risky asset classes when we identify them as attractive, when the trend is our friend and positive!

Having identified this volatility, in June we made defensive, tactical investment decisions that provide less exposure to these volatile, range bound markets and prepare us to re-enter the markets when they possess improved risk characteristics.

 

 

 

 

Deficit Ceiling and Stocks - Expect the Unexpected ETFguide Simon Maierhofer, July 19, 2011, ‘A number of cliches come to mind when talking about the U.S. debt situation. The most appropriate might be: 'You can't have your cake and eat it too.' The least applicable is probably: 'Never put off until tomorrow what you can do today.'

But if you think the U.S. will default on some of its obligations anytime soon, you don't have enough faith in the government's most potent weapon - extend and pretend (another cliche that's become the modus operandi).

Since 1960, Congress has acted 78 separate times to permanently raise, temporarily extend, or revise the definition of the debt limit. Chances are Congress will act again before the August 2 deadline. That however isn't good news.

By the end of this article you will know the common sense, no nonsense, deficit ramifications for the stock market and why even 'a deal' isn't good news.

USA Inc. - Income Statement

If the United States was a corporation - USA Inc. - here's what the Income Statement would look like:

Total federal spending in 2010 amounted to $3.456 trillion. Total receipts added up to $2.162 trillion. USA Inc.'s 2010 deficit was $1.294 trillion.                                 

The 2011 federal budget is $3.7 trillion with a projected deficit of$1.6 trillion. But there's no reason to despair, just before April 15,Congressional leaders were able to agree on $39 billion worth of budgetcuts for the remainder of the year.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid hailed this heroic effort as a 'historic' level of cuts. To quantify just how 'historic' that effort was we'll put it in percentage terms -1%. The cut amounted to only 1% of the 2011 budget. Apparently it wasn't enough. Thanks to extend and pretend we've arrived at the next deadline.

Stocks Applaud ... and Decline

Keep in mind that back in mid-April when the 'historic' $39 billion cut was hammered out, the S&P was at about 1,300. Following the 'resolution' of the budget problem stocks rallied about 5%.

The April 3 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter featured the chart below (due to size restrictions the chart had to be reduced). As per the chart and accompanying analysis, the Newsletter expected a rally to the next Fibonacci resistance at 1,369, followed by a bounce off the Fibonacci support at either 1,229 or 1,255 and an attempt to take out the previous high.

 http://www.etfguide.com//contributor/UserFiles/8/Image/5%20-%20April%203%20TF.jpg

This outlook was based purely on technical analysis with no regard for the deficit problem or European debt woes (we'll take a look at an updated technical forecast in a moment). The S&P did top at 1,370 on May 2. Thereafter it dropped to 1,259, and tried to take out the previous high (the S&P rallied as high as 1,356 on July 7and stumbled thereafter).

USA Inc. - Balance Sheet

If you think the Income Statement looks bad, you may not want to look at the Balance Sheet. Consensus estimates for unfunded obligations vary. Mary Meeker pegs the shortfall at $31 trillion, PIMCO's Bill Gross estimates the unreported debt to be $75 trillion, while other estimates exceed $100 trillion.

The Deficit and Stocks

When President Obama took office in January 2009, the federal debt was 70% of GDP or $10 trillion. Today the deficit is close to 100% of GDP at $14.3 trillion.  As per a recent AP report, President Obama had to scroll down his demands and would now be content with a $2.4 trillion debt ceiling increase to make it last beyond the 2012 elections.

No doubt, the President would like the deficit issue put on hold until he's re-elected. It seems like everyone has an agenda that takes priority over solving the actual debt issue. The whole game could be summed up as White House budget director Jack Lew put it: 'That all these ideas do is say let's kick the can down the road so that others will deal with it.'

This, by the way, is why the pre-election year of the Presidential election year cycles has seen gains consistently since 1939, because the incumbent party will do what it takes to remain in office longer.

A lose-lose Situation

The drawback of the deficit situation is that there is no easy way out. The government has to either cut spending (as in fewer benefits for Americans) or increase revenue (as in higher taxes).

Pick your poison. Either choice will kill the economy. Of course, you can extend and pretend, which is probably what will end up happening. No matter how much lip stick you have at your disposal, a pig remains a pig. The deficit is a big (red) pig.

What is worse, a $14.3 trillion deficit today, or a $16+ trillion deficit (according to Obama's wish) in 2012? Debt is like gangrene, dry rot or mold, it doesn't just go away, it gets worse (ask Greece, Ireland, Portugal or any of the other PIIGS).

Eliminate Variables

Using European (NYSEArca: VGK - News) debt troubles as a benchmark, there hasn't been a direct correlation between U.S. stocks and European debt. To generalize this even further, there hasn't been a real correlation between the U.S. deficit issue and U.S. stocks.

It was in June 2009 that Greece admitted to having a 'small' problem. Stocks rallied throughout the remainder of 2009, most of 2010 and some in 2011. The same is true for the MSCI EAFE ETF (NYSEArca: EFA - News) and Emerging Market ETF (NYSEArca: EEM - News).

Admittedly, the U.S. is a much bigger problem than the PIGGS, but the principal remains the same - basing investment decisions on the outcome of debt negotiations is tricky because the market has a mind of its own.

Since early 2010, every single time the major indexes a la S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), Dow (DJI: ^DJI), and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) sold off more than a few percent, it's been blamed on Greece. What many don't consider is that the market was helplessly overbought in January, and April 2010 and 2011 and due for a correction anyway. It seems like Greece has been a scapegoat more often than the actual cause. Perhaps it's a game of chicken and the egg. Which came first?

No Chicken-Egg Game

It has been more beneficial and profitable to rely on solid technical analysis rather than playing the chicken and egg game.

Technical analysis along with sentiment readings pegged a market bottom of the same degree at S&P 1,259 - 1,245. That was the opinion of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter on June 15 (one day before the 1,258 bottom):

'The 200-day SMA at 1,257 is sandwiched between the 1,255 Fibonacci projection level dating back to 2002 and this week's s1 at 1,259. Wednesday's low was at 1,261.9. If this low is not enough, there is a strong cluster of support at 1,259 - 1,245. A drop into the 1,259 - 1,245 range would prompt us to close out short positions and leg into long positions' (long positions were closed out at S&P 1,345 on July 7).

There was no fundamental good news on June 15 or 16. Some of the headlines featured on June 15 were:

'Is the bull market over? A look at four different sentiment measures suggests that more pain may await investors.' - Barrons

'Greek default could trigger chain reaction' - AP

'Confidence is eroding among U.S. factories, consumers' Bloomberg …’

 

 

 

Fed Keeping Market Afloat: QE Rally Not Sustainable http://regator.com/p/252365030/fed_keeping_market_afloat_qe_rally_not_sustainable By Matthew Claassen

 

 

Financial Crisis Phase II Is Ahead at Forbes Bert Dohmen  In late 2007, I wrote the book Prelude To Meltdown, predicting the global crisis that occurred the following year.  I now see a similar confluence of events that warns of phase II of the global crisis.

Once again I see all the canaries in the mine, which warned of the 2008 crisis. My just released book, Financial Apocalypse , provides the clues and the road map, with charts, of how my  indicators successfully predicted the meltdown that occurred in the fall of 2008. This book is a guide for detecting the next crisis whenever it occurs.  History repeats, or at minimum, it rhymes.

My work shows that the new recession has started. The May 9 issue of the Wellington Letter was headlined:  Return of the Double-Dip.  At the time, economists were looking for a great economy in the second half. Now they talk about a soft patch.  Over the past 33 years, we have called the start of every recession, often on the exact month, or within one month, of the official start as determined one year later by the official arbiter of recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

How can we be in recession now when the GDP still shows growth? Because of improper inflation adjustments. Real GDP growth, the headline number, is nominal growth minus the rate of inflation. However, inflation is far understated for political reasons.

Currently, the GDP deflator is 1.8%, which hardly reflects the true rise in prices. Therefore, what is counted as growth, is actually price increases. Actual inflation, according to free market economists who calculate inflation as it was done in 1980 before the politician re-engineered it, is now more than 11%. Using that to adjust GDP for inflation, would show that the economy is now in a very sharp contraction.

When the current euphoric earnings forecasts of Wall Street finally reflect that via significant earnings downgrades, the stock market will see a serious adjustment as well.

On July 18, Goldman Sachs (GS) substantially lowered its economic growth forecast. Marketwatch.com had this headline:  Goldman Sachs slashes Economic Forecasts. The next step will be for them to substantially reduce earnings forecasts for the S&P 500.

Will the phase II be as bad as the 2008 crisis? The last crisis was confined to the private sector, i.e. financial institutions. The next one will be involve the threatened default of entire countries. The last time, the central banks bailed out the financial firms and even Warren Buffett bailed out several firms. Who is big enough to bail out entire countries? Or will the term of too big to fail turn to too big to bail?

Bert Dohmen is editor of the Wellington Letter and author of Financial Apocalypse.

 

 

Retail Sales: The "Real" Consumer Remains in a Recession   Doug Short Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/author/doug-short#ixzz1TAkuAIOK

 

 

 

3 Top Crooks Still Roaming Free After the Economic Crash Wall St. Cheat Sheet July 25, 2011, The global economy and stock markets took a nose dive in 2008. But that hasn’t stopped some of the biggest masterminds from escaping a day of luxury.

Here are three financial crooks who are probably sipping daiquiris in Capri at our expense:

Lehman Brothers CEO Richard S. Fuld, Jr.

Few executives were as intimately and extensively involved in the downfall of their firms as Dick Fuld . At the time of the financial collapse, Fuld had worked for Lehman Brothers for nearly 40 years, and had been the firms chief executive since 1994. In that role, not only was he the longest-tenured CEO on Wall Street at the time of the financial crisis, but he was considered one of the best. He was named Institutional Investor magazines top chief executive in the private sector in 2006. The following year, he was paid more than $21 million in cash and stock on top of his base salary of $750,000 a year after the banks net profit rose 5% to a record $4.2 billion. And as recently as March 2008, Barrons listed him on their list of the 30 best CEOs, referring to him as Mr. Wall Street.

When the financial crisis hit, Fuld was one of the few executives to hold onto his position. He counted himself responsible for the company, but didnt realize just how much real estate loans and other toxic assets were weighing on his balance sheet. Instead, he remained confident in the firm that he helped grow from a negative profit in 1993. His hubris can somewhat be understood, given the firm hadnt reported a single quarterly loss since it went public. But Fuld was wrong. He overestimated the value of his firm, rejecting offers that could have saved it from collapse because they didnt adequately reflect what he felt the firm was worth.

We know that sub-prime mortgages were almost solely responsible for the financial crisis, and a large part of the Wall Streets fourth-largest investment banks worth was held in its mortgage business, where mortgages were re-packaged and sold to other investors, often for more than they were really worth. In fact, Lehman was the top U.S. underwriter of mortgage bonds in 2006 and 2007, accounting for roughly 10% of the market. As CEO, Fuld was responsible for buying those assets, which ultimately became toxic and impossible to unload. But whether or not Fuld can be held wholly responsible for the firms loan practices, he can be held responsible for the firms bankruptcy. As late as August 2008, after many CEOs had already been forced to resign, he rejected an offer by state-run Korea Development Bank to buy a 25% stake in Lehman for $4 billion to $6 billion.

Theres no question that the firm Fuld helped build, that hed been a part of since 1969, where he held the top position for 14 years, was criminally responsible for the financial crisis. In fact, it may be the most culpable, given the sheer volume of sub-prime mortgages underwritten by Lehman in the years leading up to the market collapse. On September 15, Lehman became the largest firm to file for bankruptcy in history, dealing a devastating blow to an already fragile financial system. A few weeks later, Fuld was summoned to appear before Congress as part of an inquisition. He was also investigated by three United States Attorneys offices in New York and New Jersey. But ultimately Fuld walked away from Lehman Brothers having pocketed nearly $500 million just in his last six years with the firm, years during which Lehmans sub-prime mortgage practice was contributing to what would ultimately cost taxpayers $700 billion in a government-issued bank bailout program. Fuld was never charged with or convicted of any crimes.

AIG Financial Products CEO Joseph J. Cassano

As a founding member and head of AIG Financial Products, Joe Cassano was responsible for selling hundreds of billions of dollars worth of credit protection in the form of credit-default swaps (CDS) on U.S. sub-prime mortgages, a form of insurance that didnt require that AIG put down any form of collateral. So when the financial crisis hit in 2008 and investment banks requested the insurance money for their collapsing derivatives, AIG was unable to pay what was owed and ultimately had to be bailed out by the government, receiving about $170 billion in taxpayer money.

Cassano resigned from his position at AIG FP in March 2008, having pocketed $280 million in cash and an additional $34 in bonuses. He even managed a $1 million-a-month retirement package that kept him on at AIG as a consultant. Cassano even went on record denying any fault on the part of AIG, saying,

We believed until late 2005 that banks and other mortgage originators were applying appropriate standards when writing mortgages. When we recognized well before many others that changes in the mortgage market likely presented increased risk for future deals, we decided to exit the subprime business. We thought the decision was appropriate, despite the lost profits at the time. With hindsight, the decision looks even more prudent.

Cassano went so far as to blame the bailout for losses on CDS contracts, saying there would have been few, if any, had they not been unwound by the bailout. Testifying before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, Cassano fully defended his firms CDS practices, outlining the careful approval and monitoring system that, specifically identified risk factors and provided an analysis of those risks. Cassano insisted that AIG had not miscalculated the risks of sub-prime mortgages.

However, Cassano was directly responsible for AIGs credit-default swaps program that put the firms many clients, including Goldman Sachs, in danger when it was unable to pay out on insurance claims. He essentially sold billions of dollars worth of vapor he failed to provide what had been paid for by the firms clients. That sounds remarkably like fraud, the grounds upon which many investors have filed suit against Cassano. In fact, regulators in both the U.S. and the U.K. investigated Cassanos acts to determine whether they had been criminal. But like just about every executive responsible for the financial crisis, Cassano was not ultimately charged with any wrongdoing, and remains a free man.

Countrywide Financial Chairman and CEO Angelo Mozilo

Ranked second by Condé Nast Portfolio on their list of the Worst American CEOs of All Time, Angelo Mozilo was charged in 2009 of insider trading and securities fraud by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Mozilo personally sold hundreds of millions of dollars in stock while using shareholder funds to buy back stock to support the share price. He is also responsible for what has been termed the Friends of Angelo VIP program under which several influential lawmakers, including Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, as well as many Fannie Mae employees and other Friends of Angelo, received discounted mortgages.

However, Mozilo was allowed to settle with the SEC on all charges. He agreed to pay $67.5 million in fines, the most ever exacted from an individual in connection with the 2008 financial crisis, and he was banned from ever serving as an officer or director of any other public company. Robert Khuzami, director of the SECs Division of Enforcement, said that Mozilos record penalty is the fitting outcome for a corporate executive who deliberately disregarded his duties to investors by concealing what he saw from inside the executive suite. But in settling, Mozilo was able to avoid a trial and any subsequent criminal charges, and was not required to acknowledge any wrongdoing.

Mozilos net worth has been estimated at roughly $600 million. And because of the indemnification agreement in his contract with Countrywide, the firm was responsible for paying roughly one-third of his fines, leaving Mozilo with a bill of $47.5 million thats less than 10% of his worth. Aside from Bernie Madoff, the only executive tied to the financial crisis to be criminally prosecuted and convicted, Mozilos settlement is the greatest punishment inflicted on any executive responsible for the countrys economic collapse, and falls desperately short of true justice.

 

 

 

Debt, Deficits and the Demise of the American Economy' - Author Peter Tanous Discusses Risk

 

 

 

US Equities Forecast and the Anticipated Path of the Market at Minyanville  Peter Prudden July 25, 2011 ‘… the headline risk remains to the downside and the bogey to lower equity prices in the short to intermediate term is concentrated on the U.S. Debt ceiling. At some point, not only must all developed economies deal with marking down to the level of income, but we must restructure large amounts of excess leverage. Until we accomplish this, growth will be problematic…’

 

 

 

Putin says U.S. is "parasite" on global economy [Unfortunately, this is very true. More unfortunately is the fact that most worldwide don’t realize that fact! I mean, think about it: pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america’s cancerous  perma wars, over-printed debased ‘Weimar’ paper ‘reserve’ currency, huge frauds in securities and otherwise, etc..  ]

 

 

 

3 Reasons Why This Summer Could Get Ugly  Simon Maierhofer, July 29, 2011 [ Well, before getting to the article, we all know why: because … ‘Sell in May, and go away!’ … Quite simple, as previously set forth here and elsewhere, you should have ‘sold in May, and went away!’ Why? Because … as Rosanne Rosanna Danna formerly of SNL fame and as her mama always used to say, ‘it’s always somethin’’ … but unfortunately, that somethin’ is not necessarily what they say it is. ]  It seems like the European Union and U.S. government are stuck in a never ending game of Whac-A-Mole. It seems like more moles are popping up more quickly, needing more force to be subdued (ironically the moles come back just as the problems do)…’

 

 

 

 

 

Mapping the Myths of the U.S. Economy - Stacy Curtin  In The Real State of America Atlas: Mapping the Myths and Truths of the United States, authors Cynthia Enloe and Joni Seager paint a vivid picture of life in the U.S., using a series of charts, graphics and short essays that cover almost every aspect of the nation's economy and society as a whole.

Not only do they give state-by-state comparisons, they show how the U.S. measures up to the rest of the world in areas such as health care, housing and defense. But while analyzing what it's really like to live in the U.S. today, they also uncovered a few "myths and truths" as the title of the book suggests.

Enloe and Seager joined The Daily Ticker's Aaron Task to share three of the most surprising misconceptions they uncovered.

#1 Land of Homeowners

The dream of owning a home is actually more the reality in other countries. In the book, the authors point to the most recent data, which show only 68% of Americans owned their home in 2002, compared with 92% in Hungry, 84% in Mexico, 72% in the U.K. and 71% in Australia.

"One of the things that is a cherished notion about America is we are a nation of homeowners, and homeownership has long been seen as kind of the bedrock of the American dream," says Seager. "I think the current economic crisis and the housing crisis is really shaking that American cherished view of ourselves as having easy access to homeownership."

This is evident in another stat laid out in the book, which shows 83% of people agreed that buying a home was a safe investment in 2003, compared with 70% in 2010. (See: Why I Am Never Going to Own a Home Again)  { Home ownership hits lowest level since 1965  NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Les Christie August 5, 2011 As the foreclosure crisis continues to wreak havoc on the housing market, a source of national pride has taken a sour turn. Home ownership is on the decline and, according to a recent Morgan Stanley report…’ }

#2 Land of Opportunity

Just like the ideal of owning a home, opportunity in this country is now also on the brink.

"Opportunity in this country means a chance for an education [and] a chance for a decent job that allows you to have a decent life," says Enloe, who points to two key factors that hinder people making it here in America.

#3 Land of Givers

While the U.S. does give more money in foreign aid than any other country in the world, as a percentage of GDP it falls way behind many other nations.

Whereas Sweden gives almost 1% of its GDP in 2008, the U.S. gave 0.19%.

"I think it really should shake Americans' self-perception of two things," says Enloe. "[One] is cutting foreign aid actually the ticket to balancing the budget, but also how do we shape up compared to other countries' generosity?"

 

 

 

Debt Deal Is A Blank Check at Forbes

 

 

U.S. Economic Pessimism Grows - Stacy Curtin  While Democrats and Republicans were arguing over how to prevent the U.S. from a default, families across the country have become increasingly concerned about the overall state of the economy, according to the American Enterprise Institute's latest compilation of recent polls taken in various regions.

Friday's worse than expected GDP numbers only reaffirm this notion. The U.S. economy grew less than expected in the second quarter at 1.3%, but the bigger shock came after Q1 GDP was revised down to 0.4% from 1.9%. These numbers suggest the country could be headed for another recession and Americans are definitely feeling the pain. (See: 2011 Is Proving to Be a Horrible Year For the Economy)

One of the most disconcerting findings in the AEI report is a CBS/New York Times poll from June. It showed that over the last year, more Americans have come to believe the current economic downturn is part of a long-term permanent decline and that the economy will never fully recover. In October 2010, 28% of respondents agreed with that statement, versus 39% last month.

"Americans are so pessimistic about the economy now ... . And the level of public pessimism is actually higher than the deep 1981-82 recession overall," due to grim personal outlooks on a number of issues like jobs, retirement and health care, says Karlyn Bowman, a senior fellow at AEI who co-authored the report. "Their negative sentiments are affecting the way they feel about their family's future, and interestingly, the way they feel about their state governments. Usually negative attitudes about the national government don't seep into attitudes about the state government, but this time it is really different. This negative, gloomy mood is pervasive.

Speaker of the House John Boehner echoed these concerns Thursday before one of the many failed House votes to raise the country's debt ceiling. "This is a challenging time for our country," he said. "Americans are worried about their jobs. They're worried about our economy. And they're worried about our debt."

Since the polls in the report were conducted before the debt-ceiling debate really began heating up over the last few weeks, one might conclude that if the same questions were asked today the responses would be even more pessimistic.

Here are other key findings from the AEI report:

Job anxiety: In the past six months, about 5% of Americans surveyed had lost their job, two in 10 said a family member had lost a job, and six in 10 knew someone who lost a job.

In June 2011, 58 percent were very or somewhat worried they could lose a job in the next 12 months. Nearly eight in 10 say jobs are difficult to find where they live. Around a quarter are worried about benefit or pay cuts.

Cutting back: Americans are cutting back on everything from health care to haircuts. Fewer than four in 10 say their personal financial situation is in excellent or good shape right now. Almost as many people say they are falling behind as believe they are getting ahead, but the vast majority describe their financial situation as having just enough money to maintain their standard of living. Inflation worries are high and steady.

Retirement: There's been a dramatic drop in the number of Americans who say they have enough money to retire. In 2002, around six in 10 believed they would have enough money. In the latest survey by Gallup in April, only about four in 10 say they will.

 

 

10 Reasons We Are Heading for a Recession

 

 

USAGOLD RoundTable: Debt Ceiling Resolution EU Sovereign Debt Crisis Aug 3rd, 2011 15:53 by News Were pleased to present our latest RoundTable video discussion with our staff experts George Cooper, Peter Grant and Jonathan Kosares {Immediate access here} Excerpt: Now that the debt ceiling debate is over, and the dust is settling, the market is beginning to get a picture of what, if anything, was accomplished, and can be expected moving forward. The $2 trillion in cuts over ten years amounts to a small dent in our annual deficit, suggesting that the U.S. will continue to increase its debt to GDP ratio over the coming decade. The cuts suggested will merely slow, not reverse, this trend. In the end, this debt deal is nothing more than a giant kick of the can down the road, and a short road at that. The hike to the debt ceiling looks to only buy about six months, so this issue is set to be revisited next year. The market has digested this resolution as such, and gold has responded sharply higher, rising $60 in two days. The DOW meanwhile has come under significant pressure, shedding over 800 points in a week. Things across the pond are not looking any better. The credit facility set up by the ECB is insufficient at best, and contagion remains an enormous risk. Spreads on sovereign debt in Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal and Ireland are at or near all time highs. As talks of dramatically expanding the credit facility heat up, were left to wonder if its even possible for Europe to go big enough to calm market jitters. With Peter Grant, George Cooper, and Jonathan Kosares. (24 min) The Daily Market Report Aug 1st, 2011 12:01 by PG  Relief? What Relief? http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum Late last night when party leaders and the President announced that they had reached a bipartisan deal that would allow the debt ceiling to be raised, gold dropped about 1%. Global stocks rallied in relief and briefly, ever so briefly, gold was out of favor. However, as the details were revealed, doubts were reignited: Doubts as to whether such legislation could actually make it to the Presidents desk. Doubts that the deal would avert a downgrade of US sovereign debt.While the CBO scores the package as accomplishing $2.1 trillion in spending cuts over the next 10-years, the CBO baseline also has the deficit rising $6.7 trillion over the same period. The premise apparently being that were working our way to actual cutting by cutting to slow the pace of the nations proliferate spending. In actuality and as evidenced below that CBO baseline may prove to be way too optimistic.What really lit an intraday fire under gold today was the big miss on US July ISM, which plunged to 50.9. The market was expecting a modest downtick to 55.0 from 55.3 in June. On the heals of last weeks much weaker than expected quarterly GDP data, it has become abundantly apparent that the US economy has slowed to just above stall-speed. David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff and Associates, noted last week that once the economy slows to a growth rate of 1.6% it has proven historically to be a point of no return and recession follows. With Q1 downgraded to just 0.36% and Q2 an anemic 1.3% and likely subject to future negative revision as well the writing may well be on the wall.The debt deal is a short-term kick of the can that at least initially focuses on spending cuts. However, with no mitigation of the uncertainties that have kept private capital sidelined for the past two-years of the so-called recovery, there is little reason to think that a more robust economy is just around the corner. In fact, the opposite may be true. That realization, tipped in by the ISM data, has further escalated the QE3 talk, which prompted gold to retest the record high set Friday at 1632.39. Relief? What relief?If we get another negative surprise on Friday when July nonfarm payrolls comes out, as the ISM employment index suggests we might, the QE3 talk will intensify ever more in the weeks ahead of the Feds Jackson Hole summit. Consensus on July payrolls are running around +100k, although we could see some tempering of those expectations in light of the ISM data.Even with the announcement of the debt ceiling deal, the dollar remains on the ropes, falling to new record lows against the Swiss franc and the yen. If this deal makes it through both Houses of Congress and is signed by the President, it is just another kick of the can and a very short one at that down the road. And with the specter of yet another round of quantitative easing hanging over the market, there is little incentive to buy dollars. Now the BoJ is once again contemplating direct intervention in the market, as I suspect the SNB is. If there are concerted efforts to slow the rise of these currencies, it may make gold an even more alluring option.

 

 

S&P downgrades US credit rating from AAA The United States has lost its sterling credit rating from Standard & Poor's.

 

 

U.S. triple-A debt rating cut by Standard & Poors Aug 5, 2011 The United States late Friday lost its triple-A debt rating from Standard & Poors for the first tie ...
 

 

Text of S&P downgrade of U.S. rating  06 Aug 2011 The following is the text of Standard & Poors downgrade of the United States. ...
 

 

 

S&P Shocks the U.S. with Credit Downgrade to AA+ from Prestigious AAA Rating  Wall St. Cheat Sheet  August 5, 2011,

Standard & Poors is out with an official downgrade of the U.S. credit rating:

We have lowered our long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to AA+ from AAA and affirmed the A-1+ short-term rating.

We have also removed both the short- and long-term ratings from CreditWatch negative.

The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the governments medium-term debt dynamics.

More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policymaking and political institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic challenges to a degree more than we envisioned when we assigned a negative outlook to the rating on April 18, 2011.

Since then, we have changed our view of the difficulties in bridging the gulf between the political parties over fiscal policy, which makes us pessimistic about the capacity of Congress and the Administration to be able to leverage their agreement this week into a broader fiscal consolidation plan that stabilizes the governments debt dynamics any time soon.

The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. We could lower the long-term rating to AA within the next two years if we see that less reduction in spending than agreed to, higher interest rates, or new fiscal pressures during the period result in a higher general government debt trajectory than we currently assume in our base case.

Investing Insights: Is the Debt Ceiling Raise Bullish for Gold?

 

 

 

13 Reasons Why The U.S. Is Now OFFICIALLY BANKRUPT Daily Bail | Stop the budget lies; there are NO cuts. House passes bill to INCREASE spending by $7 trillion over the next 10 years. ATTENTION IDIOTS IN THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA Stop The Budget Lies There Are NO Cuts House Passes Bill To INCREASE Spending By $7 Trillion Over The Next 10 Years

Lies, Damn Lies And Government Budgets

I am so pissed off by the misreporting I could spit Ken Lewis hairballs.

#1) Corporate journalists and financial pundits know NOTHING about budgets.

#2) The Boehner led House passed legislation this evening that INCREASES spending by $7 TRILLION over the next ten years versus a baseline budget that would have increased spending by $9.5 TRILLION over the same period.

#3) CBO said today that LESS than 2% of the decrease in the GROWTH of spending will come before the 2012 elections. The remainder come after the election.

#4) Defense and war machine spending will grow at 3% per year instead of 4% per year.

#5) This was nothing but an agreement to agree at a later date to look for reductions in planned spending GROWTH.

#6) A Super Congress will decide on a mix of tax increases and reductions in planned spending growth to meet the targets at a later date.

#7) No one in Congress even considered Ron Pauls simple plan, now endorsed by Time Magazine as well as liberal economist Dean Baker, to wipe out $1.6 trillion in fake debt owned by the Federal Reserve. Debt that we owe to ourselves, that is entirely legal to wipe away.

#8.) CBO says under this plan, the national debt will INCREASE from $14.4 TRILLION currently to more than $25 TRILLION over the next 10 years.

#9) The assumption for #8 above assumes the economy grows at 3% per year over the next 10 years, and that Treasury interest rates stay at historic lows. When rates increase, and bet your life that they will, interest on the debt will increase and so will annual deficits, leading to a national debt much higher than the $25 TRILLION that CBO estimates.

#10) Regarding Treasury rates and interest on the debt, get educated about a concept called DURATION RISK. Turbo Geithner and his MENSA bed-fellows at Treasury have chosen to finance the great majority of recent and future borrowing in short-term bills, which means that they have to be rolled over frequently. This is perhaps the least-discussed and most dangerous issue related to Treasury debt.

#11) If S&P or Moodys has the sack to downgrade the U.S. AAA rating, a Sovereign CDS default will be triggered and Global Financial Armageddon will be unleashed.

#12) The bill passed by Boehner tonight was the BEST they could do after 6 weeks of fighting.

#13) Due to #12, the United States is officially f*cked.

Thank you and good night.

 

 

 

US Closer to ‘Junk Bond’ Status Than Triple-A: Bove Aug 9th, 2011 14:41 by News August 9 (CNBC) — ‘  “You’ve got a company which is losing about $1.4 trillion this year, probably will lose somewhere around a trillion dollars over the next couple of years. It owes $14.4 trillion (and) over the next five years that will get up to $20 trillion,” the Rochdale Securities analyst said.“So there’s no likelihood whatsoever that this particular company is able to pay down from its own resources the amount of debt that it has, nor is there any likelihood that it’s going to get rid of its deficit,” he added. “If that was a real company, of course, that would be a junk bond.”“I still would expect to see a thousand-point down day at some point in this market as people come to realize there has been a complete change in the financial structure of the world,” he said’

 

 

 

 

If U.S. Slides Into Recession, S&P 500 Could Drop To 830 at Forbes [The pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt u.s. is already in recession (actually worse)!  Financial Crisis Phase II Is Ahead at Forbes Bert Dohmen ‘ In late 2007, I wrote the book Prelude To Meltdown, predicting the global crisis that occurred the following year.  I now see a similar confluence of events that warns of phase II of the global crisis… My work shows that “the new recession has started.”… Over the past 33 years, we have called the start of every recession, often on the exact month, or within one month, of the official start as determined one year later by the official arbiter of recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)… However, inflation is far understated for political reasons. Currently, the GDP deflator is 1.8%, which hardly reflects the true rise in prices. Therefore, what is counted as “growth,” is actually price increases. Actual inflation, according to free market economists who calculate inflation as it was done in 1980 before the politician re-engineered it, is now more than 11%. Using that to adjust GDP for inflation, would show that the economy is now in a very sharp contraction…’FLASHBACK HERE: Selling In May Is Very Good Advice This Year  Harding   Remember: Sell in May and Go Away and If You’ve Not Sold by June, You’re a Loon! ‘ ‘Albert Edwards: Thinks the Market Could Fall 70%’ PRECHTER: We're Still In A Massive Bear Market And Stocks Will Crash To New Lows     Stock Market: 4 Current Warning Signs  Navin ‘…1) The 5-year high in the level of insider corporate stock sales is telling. At 565 sells for every 1 buy, it’s never been higher.   Why The Dow Will Plunge To 7,000 By 24/7 Wall St.    S&P Poised For Dropoff, Says Initial Jobless Claims  Forbes / Maureen Farrell    ]

 

 

 

 

3 Ring Circus: Geithner, Buffett, and Obama Wall St. Cheat Sheet ‘…Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner , who said last April that there was no risk the U.S. could loose its AAA credit rating, voiced his thoughts on the downgrade.  He said, Theyve handled themselves very poorly, and theyve shown a stunning lack of knowledge about the basic U.S. fiscal budget math.  What exactly are they misunderstanding? The U.S. is the largest debtor nation in the world, and spending outlays vastly outnumber revenue.  Geithner went on to say that U.S. bonds were just as safe after the downgrade as before, and predicted that China and investors would remain strong buyers of government debt.On Monday morning, with stock futures heading sharply lower, Warren Buffett tried to inject confidence into the financial markets.  Buffett explained that he believes the U.S. debt is still rated AAA, and the downgrade does not change his mind about government debt.  In fact, the legendary investor holds $47 billion in cash and equivalents as of June 30th.  He said, If I have to buy Treasuries at zero percent yield, I will.  At least the large cash hoard shows that Buffett puts his money where his mouth is.  However, one also has to wonder if Buffetts shareholdings in Moodys , a rival credit agency to S&P, has anything to do with his criticism of S&P.  To add fuel to the fire, S&P also cut Buffetts Berkshire Hathaway outlook from stable to negative.Not to be outdone by Warren Buffetts AAA endorsement, President Obama made a public announcement of his own on Monday.  Despite Americas financial hardship across the board, the President said, Id give U.S. a quadruple-A rating.  This was puzzling for many reasons ( besides the fact there is no quadruple-A rating).  America has a hard enough time keeping its AA+ or AAA rating, let alone achieving some pipe dream quadruple-A rating.  S&P may be the credit agency causing controversy now, but its not the only credit agency to downgrade America.  Chinas credit rating agency Dagong ,  recently cut Americas debt rating from A+ to A, with a negative outlook.  Dagong had already cut Americas credit rating last November from AA to A+ after QE2 was announced.By the end of Monday, it was announced that the Senate banking committee had started a probe into the downgrade actions of S&P.  However, the damage is already done, confidence is broken in the markets.   Gold constantly reaching new highs is a clear example of this.  Perhaps the Senate banking committee should probe Fitch and Moodys and investigate why they still have AAA ratings on U.S. debt?...

 

 

 

Edwards says this has nothing to do with that downgrade   http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/08/09/648126/edwards-says-this-has-nothing-to-do-with-that-downgrade

Posted by Izabella Kaminska on Aug 09 2011

Thought the current turmoil was down to the downgrade of US debt? Wrong!

According to Societe Generales uber bear, Albert Edwards, this has absolutely nothing to do with S&P, the White House, Tea Party etc. Its the economy stupid:

The simple fact is that the global economy is falling back into recession or indeed is already in recession. Equity markets were sliding before the downgrade and bond yields were reacting as one would have expected to the dire economic data. The S&P downgrade may have caused the breach of critical support levels of 1250 on the S&P, but anything could have caused that breach and triggered the technical rout. Expect some sort of retest of this neckline before the market ultimately meets its date with destiny.

Recent US GDP revisions revealed QE2 to be an abject failure as far as producing an economic recovery is concerned with dire 0.9% annualised growth reported in H1 2011. Yet to a man with a hammer, everything is a nail. Hence despite rising core inflation, there is certainly a level of economic and/or market pain to prompt QE3. But expect the real fireworks to occur when the adrenalin rush of QE3 wears off even quicker than QE2.

There are still some diehard happy clappies out there who think we are going to avert recession and the markets will recover. Yet US GDP growth has now fallen below the wellknown 2% stall speed, below which the economy does not seem to be able to regain altitude but instead crashes directly into recession.

Which means its time to come to terms with the fact that recession 2.0 (or was it ever really a recovery?) is on its way whether you like it or not:

At the current (Q2) rate of 1.6% yoy GDP growth, my fellow bear (realist?), David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff, points out in the chart below that a US recession is almost certainly a done deal (never say certain, as in 1956, when recession was temporarily averted for all of nine months). But with this sort of record the onus is now on the optimists to demonstrate why on earth they still believe in a second-half recovery and growth in 2012.

Now, anyone who bought into the dulcet tones of the bullish brigrade is likely to do very badly. A fact which will come as hubris. In Edwards opinion if you were dumb enough to listen to that story, well you reap what you sow:

And in the same way that a country is said to get the government it deserves, I believe the market gets the macro commentators it deserves: i.e. perpetually bullish analysts, taking no personal risk with their never-ending consensus chatter.

After all it was always pretty obvious what was going to happen.

It was just a question of when, rather than if:

Put into its proper Ice Age context, the events of the past decade are entirely explicable. As we see a short-lived economic recovery failing only two years into the cycle and a plunge back into recession, we remind investors that this was exactly the Ice Age template that Japan showed us. A fragile recovery undermined by private sector deleveraging collapses as a semi-bankrupt government tries to rein in runaway deficits.

What next? Well, its Ice Age 3.

Heres how it goes and this is very much of the moment (especially if you are a London resident):

We are now entering the third phase of the Ice Age when another cyclical failure combines with a secular de-rating of equities and re-rating of government bonds. I and many others have been pointing out for a long time now the simple fact that the global economy has been living way beyond its means for years. A massive transfer of income to the very rich has occurred while middle class real incomes stagnated. The middle classes only tolerated this because Central Bankers created housing booms to keep the impoverished middle classes borrowing and spending to give them the illusion of prosperity and stop them from revolting.

I believe the Fed and Bank of England, in particular, were wholly complicit in this daylight robbery (see link). These unsustainable private sector, debt mountains were transferred to the public sector in 2008 to prevent the adjustment to the depression-era reality that the debt unwind would undoubtedly have brought about. Yet, those debts are as unsustainable in the hands of the public sector as they were in the private sector.

Central bank polices havent changed though. Print and print and print. And if that doesnt work, print some more. And as London burns, the point I have always made is that the US and UK are not like Japan in one very special way. Although Japan suffered a decade of pain it is a very homogenous, equal society. The UK and US are not. Some readers may not know that rioting and looting has broken out around London. While I hear the UK politicians denounce the looters as common criminals (which of course they are), I cant help but think that Louis XVI in 1789 and Tsar Nicolas II in 1917 might have said the same thing.

Crikey,

Here comes the revolution. Prepare.

 

 

 

Fed Move, Pavlovian Market Response: Reactions  The Wall Street Journal  Mark Gongloff  Paul Krugman scoffs at the Fed-fueled rally:

The Fed didnt announce a new policy. And despite what some press reports said, it didnt even commit to keeping rates low; all it did was say that if the economy stays weak, rates will stay low well, duh and that it might think about doing other stuff one of these days.

Tyler Durden is amazed:

Following a 600 point plunge in the DJIA yesterday, today we see a 400 point surge following the presentation of the weak case of the expected Bernanke Put. And completing the amazement, the 10 Year bond, moved to almost record lows, and then retraced virtually the entire move, as nobody knows what central planning has in store for America any longer. Additionally, after being up 50%, VIX is now down 22%. Congratulations Ben: in taking central planning to nth double-down levels, you have now broken not only the stock, but the bond market as well…’

 

 

Faber's Pessimism on the U.S. Downgrade  08/09/2011 By EconMatters: Markets saw the worst day since the 2008 financial crisis on Monday, August 8th, the first trading day since Standard & Poor's downgraded the United States' credit rating. Under the weight of a possible twin crisis in Europe and in the U.S., Dow Jones industrial plunged 634 points. Stocks have lost 15% of their value in just two and a half weeks. On a day like this, who else other than Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, would be more appropriate to appear on Bloomberg to talk about the aftermath of the U.S. debt downgrade... Faber indicates a bear market already started on May 2, 2011…’

 

 

 

The 10 Most Indebted Governments in the World   http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/the-10-most-indebted-governments-in-the-world.html ‘…Coming in first place is Japan (NYSE:EWJ), with a whopping $13.795 trillion in debt, just short of the the $14.27 trillion in debt the U.S. carries .. Coming in second against Japan in terms of its debt-to-GDP ratio is Greece, where debt is a relatively low 139% of GDPHot Feature: Who Owns U.S. Debt? Following Greece on the list is Italy (NYSE:EWI), then Iceland, Belgium, Ireland, and the U.S. So why isnt Japan enduring the same kind of financial crisis that so many countries with significantly less debt are currently facing? The answer is simple: Japan owes most of its debt to itself. In comparison, the U.S. owes about 30% of its debt to foreign investors, with China (NYSE:FXI) holding $1.1 billion in U.S. debt, more than any other country…’

 

 

 

Fear Index VIX Up 50%, And In Backwardation, Confirms Fully Fledged Bear Market Volatility slapped markets in the face on Monday, surging 50% in its biggest one-day move since February 2007.  Furthermore, the whole VIX futures curve has been inverted and is in backwardation, indi...

 


 

The Entire World Is Going Bear Market Business Insider | A scary aspect of this selloff: There’s nowhere safe.




8 More Reasons Why You Should Be Deeply Concerned That The U.S. Government Has Lost Its AAA Credit Rating The Economic Collapse | Are you ready for part two of the global financial collapse? When we examine this deal that way, what does it look like? The Economic Collapse Aug 9, 2011 Are you ready for part two of the global financial collapse?  Many now fear that we may be on the verge of a repeat of 2008 after the events of the last several days.  On Friday, Standard & Poors stripped the U.S. government of its AAA credit rating for the first time in history.  World financial markets had been anticipating a potential downgrade, but that still didnt stop panic from ensuing as this week began.  On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 634.76 points, which represented a 5.5 percent plunge.  It was the largest one day point decline and the largest one day percentage decline since December 1, 2008.  Overall, stocks have fallen by about 15 percent over the past two weeks.  When Standard & Poors downgraded long-term U.S. government debt from AAA to AA+, it was just one more indication that faith in the U.S. financial system is faltering.  Previously, U.S. government debt had a AAA rating from S&P continuously since 1941, but now that streak is over.   Nobody is quite sure what comes next.  We truly are in unprecedented territory.  But one thing is for sure there is a lot of fear in the air right now.So exactly what caused S&P to downgrade U.S. government debt?Well, it was the debt ceiling deal that broke the camels back.According to S&P, the debt ceiling deal falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the governments medium-term debt dynamics.As I have written about previously, the debt ceiling deal was a complete and total joke, and S&P realized this.Forget all of the huge figures that the mainstream media has been throwing at you concerning this debt ceiling deal.  The only numbers that matter are for what happens before the next election.The only way that the current debt ceiling deal will last beyond the 2012 election is if Obama is still president, the Democrats still control the Senate and the Republicans still control the House.  If any of those things change, this deal ceiling deal is dead as soon as the election is over.Even if all of those things remain the same, there is still a very good chance that we would see dramatic changes to the deal after the next election.So in evaluating this deal, the important thing is to look at what is going to happen prior to the 2012 election.Well, Barack Obama and the Democrats get the debt ceiling raised by over 2 trillion dollars and will not have to worry about it again until after the 2012 election.The Republicans get 25 billion dollars in savings from spending increases that will be cancelled.The Super Congress that is supposed to be coming up with the second phase of the plan may propose some additional spending cuts that would go into effect before the 2012 election, but that seems unlikely.So in the final analysis, the Democrats won the debt ceiling battle by a landslide.25 billion dollars is not even 1 percent of the federal budget.  The U.S. national debt continues to spiral wildly out of control, and our politicians could not even cut the budget by one percent.Somehow our politicians believed that the rest of the world would be convinced that they were serious about cutting the budget, but it turns out that global financial markets are tired of getting fooled.It has gotten to the point where now even the big credit rating agencies are being forced to do something.  Not that they really have much credibility left.  Everyone still remembers all of those AAA-rated mortgage-backed securities that imploded during the last financial crisis.  The reality is that the big credit rating agencies are a bad joke at this point.Several smaller credit rating agencies have already significantly slashed the credit rating of the U.S. government.  But a lot of pressure had been put on the big three to keep them in line.But now things have gotten so ridiculous that S&P felt forced to make a move.Sadly, our politicians are still trying to maintain the charade that everything is okay.  Barack Obama says that financial markets still believe our credit is AAA and the worlds investors agree.Once again, Barack Obama is dead wrong.The truth is that the credit rating for the U.S. government should have been slashed significantly a long time ago.  This move by S&P was way, way overdue.Moodys might be the next one to issue a downgrade.  At the moment, Moodys says that it will not be downgrading U.S. debt for now, but Moodys also says that it has serious doubts about the enforceability of the budget cuts in the debt ceiling deal.This crisis is just beginning.  It is going to play out over time, and it is going to be very messy.The following are 8 more reasons why you should be deeply concerned that the U.S. government has lost its AAA credit rating.

#1 The U.S. dollar and U.S. government debt are at the very heart of the global financial system.  This credit rating downgrade just doesnt affect the United States it literally shakes the financial foundations of the entire world.

#2 As the stock market crashes, investors are flocking to U.S. Treasuries right now.  However, once the current panic is over the U.S. could be faced with increased borrowing costs.  The credit rating downgrade is a signal to investors that they should be receiving a higher rate of return for investing in U.S. government debt.  If interest rates on U.S. government debt do end up going up, that is going to make it more expensive for the U.S. government to borrow money.  The higher interest on the national debt goes, the more difficult it is going to become to balance the budget.

#3 We could literally see hundreds of other credit rating downgrades now that long-term U.S. government debt has been downgraded.  For example, S&P has already slashed the credit ratings of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from AAA to AA+.  S&P has also already begun to downgrade the credit ratings of states and municipalities.  Nobody is quite sure when we are going to see the dominoes stop falling, and this is not going to be a good thing for the U.S. economy.

#4 10-year U.S. Treasuries are the basis for a whole lot of other interest rates throughout our economy.  If we see the rate for 10-year U.S. Treasuries go up significantly, it will suddenly become a lot more expensive to get a car loan or a home loan.

#5 The current financial panic caused by this downgrade is hitting financial stocks really hard.  The big banks led the decline back in 2008, and it looks like it might be happening again.  Just check out what CNN says happened to financial stocks on Monday.

Financial stocks were among the hardest hit, with Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) plunging 20%, and Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) dropped roughly 15%.

#6 China is freaking out. Chinas official news agency says that China has every right now to demand the United States to address its structural debt problems and ensure the safety of Chinas dollar assets.  If China starts dumping U.S. government debt that would make things a lot worse.

#7 There are already calls for the Federal Reserve to step in and do something.  If the U.S. economy drops into another recession, will we see more quantitative easing?  It seems like we have reached a point where the Fed is constantly in emergency mode.

#8 The U.S. national debt continues to get worse by the day.  Just check out what economics professor Laurence J. Kotlikoff recently told NPR.

If you add up all the promises that have been made for spending obligations, including defense expenditures, and you subtract all the taxes that we expect to collect, the difference is $211 trillion. Thats the fiscal gap

Dick Cheney once said that deficits dont matter, but the truth is that all of the debt we have been piling up for decades is now catching up with us.The United States is in such a huge amount of financial trouble that it is hard to put into words.  The days of easy borrowing for the U.S government are starting to come to an end.  We have been living in the greatest debt bubble in the history of the world, and it has fueled a tremendous amount of prosperity, but now the party is ending.

A whole lot of financial pain is on the horizon.  Please prepare for the hard times that are coming.


 

Don't Fall For The Market's Head Fakes at Forbes David Trainer The mar­ket decline expe­ri­enced thus far is closer to its begin­ning rather than its end. Tuesdays refresh­ing mar­ket rise was likely just a flash in the pan.

There is noth­ing that politi­cians or reg­u­la­tors can do to pre­vent the nat­ural price dis­cov­ery that is crit­i­cal to the long-term health of our cap­i­tal­ist system.

The mar­ket needs to go down again before it can sus­tain any future rise.

We sim­ply must deal with the loads of toxic and mis-allocated cap­i­tal that our prof­li­gate soci­ety has cre­ated over the past 20+ years.

Allow me to explain how we got our­selves in this sit­u­a­tion. The figure below high­lights the three suc­ces­sive stock mar­ket bub­bles in just over 10 years. Com­pare the size of these bub­bles and the rise in stock prices over the last 25 years com­pared to the prior 65 years. A sim­ple trend­line fur­ther accen­tu­ates just how much stock prices have appre­ci­ated com­pared to his­tor­i­cal trends.

Fig­ure 1: His­tor­i­cally Enor­mous Stock Mar­ket Bub­bles Keep Com­ing Back

http://blog.newconstructs.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/figure1.jpg

Sources:   New Con­structs, LLC and Ibbot­son Ibbot­son, 2010 Ibbot­son Stocks, Bonds, Bills and Infla­tion Val­u­a­tion Year­book, (Chicago: Morn­ing Star, 2008), 228229. *Large Cap Stocks as defined by Ibbot­son are the best com­par­i­son for the S&P 500, which did not exist as it does today in 1926.

I am not sug­gest­ing that stock prices should revert to the long-term trend­line. I fully appre­ci­ate the accel­er­at­ing pace of inno­va­tion real­ized by our soci­ety and its impact on stan­dards of liv­ing and improved uti­liza­tion of resources.

There is no ques­tion that we live in unprece­dented times of pros­per­ity and wealth cre­ation. And tech­nol­ogy holds great promise for the future achieve­ment of mankind and will drive improve­ment in the stan­dards of liv­ing around the world.

The prob­lem is that we have got­ten ahead of our­selves. By how much, I am not sure. But I am sure that we are due a (last­ing) cor­rec­tion in the stock mar­ket, and the longer that cor­rec­tion is put off, the more painful it will be.

To illus­trate, lets review what drove the last two mar­ket bubbles.

  1. Tech bub­ble – irra­tional exu­ber­ance about the value in tech stocks com­bined with rather loose mon­e­tary pol­icy pushed stocks and cap­i­tal flows to ridicu­lously high levels
  2. Hous­ing bub­ble – lax lend­ing stan­dards, unscrupu­lous bankers, con­flicted reg­u­la­tors, a bot­tom­less appetite for con­sumer spend­ing and a seem­ingly infi­nite amount of cheap money to finance consumption.

Now, lets review what hap­pened after these bub­bles burst.

  1. After the tech bub­ble: mon­e­tary pol­icy remained highly accom­moda­tive and gov­ern­ment stim­u­lus was aplenty
  2. After the hous­ing bub­ble: mon­e­tary pol­icy remained highly accom­moda­tive and gov­ern­ment stim­u­lus was aplenty

See the response pat­tern? See how it affected the markets?

It is as if the bub­bles never burst. Game back on. Like a high-school party, the music stops and every­one is quiet when the cops show up. Some­one con­vinces the cops that noth­ing unscrupu­lous is going on and all will be calm and qui­et. Then, as soon as the cop car is out of sight, the music gets turned back on and the party goes harder.

What will be the response to the third bub­ble that is forming?

That is the ques­tion that I think the mar­ket is finally fac­ing. The answer is not the same as before.

The gov­ern­ment has run out of stim­u­lus and pol­icy bullets.

Really, what else can politi­cians and reg­u­la­tors do to engi­neer a soft land­ing, or should I say, another bub­ble.

Figure 1 shows that we never really landed. We rocketed from one bubble to the next.

Lets take a look at the options avail­able via the two main forces for stim­u­lat­ing eco­nomic recovery:

  1. Fis­cal pol­icy – given the fed­eral, state and munic­i­pal debt and bud­get prob­lems, another round of stim­u­lus spend­ing or another TARP-like pro­gram is prob­a­bly not in the cards. The funds are sim­ply not avail­able. Not to men­tion, I do not think another bailout plan would go over very well with tax-payers.
  2. Mon­e­tary pol­icy – here we have three poten­tial options.
    1. Lower rates – can they go any lower? The answer is not mean­ing­fully lower unless the Fed­eral Reserve wants neg­a­tive nom­i­nal rates. In addi­tion, low inter­est rates under­mine long-term eco­nomic growth poten­tial.
    2. Extend QE2 to QE3 – given that the point of QE2 was to keep inter­est rates, espe­cially mort­gage rates low, I do not think addi­tional quan­ti­ta­tive eas­ing in the form taken so far would have much if any impact on rates given how lower they already are. More­over, dri­ving oil and other com­mod­ity prices higher by fur­ther under­min­ing the value of the dol­lar is not exactly con­ducive to growth.
    3. A new type of QE3 – sup­pose the Fed were to pur­chase large amounts of assets other than trea­suries such as fore­closed homes. I think that action would likely spook investors because it would sig­nal that the car­ry­ing value of those homes were too high. Oth­er­wise, pri­vate investors would have already bought them for their own port­fo­lios. And bank stocks would sink as investors real­ize that addi­tional write-offs might be com­ing. The same reac­tion applies to any other asset that the Fed might choose to take off pri­vate investors’ hands.

So, who is going to bail us out this time?

My over­rid­ing mes­sage is that no one should have bailed us out to begin with. The longer we avoid the painful process of delever­ag­ing and return­ing to a more delib­er­ate and ratio­nal mode of cap­i­tal allo­ca­tion, the more we delay the inevitable. The more we shift the blame for our finan­cial mis­takes to the pub­lic sec­tor, the deeper the hole we must dig out of.

Which brings me to the next point: shift­ing respon­si­bil­ity to the pub­lic sec­tor, i.e. gov­ern­ment, presents some very seri­ous prob­lems and head­winds for future growth:

  1. The gov­ern­ment is not bail­ing any­one out, tax­pay­ers are. In essence, the gov­ern­ment is using hard-earned tax rev­enue to pay for the mis­takes of cer­tain mem­bers of our society.
  2. Moral haz­ard is con­fused with moral oblig­a­tion. Re-distribution of wealth to those that are in gen­uine need of assis­tance from soci­ety is in our long-term best inter­ests. But moral oblig­a­tion quickly becomes moral haz­ard when the re-distribution applies to peo­ple who should, but pre­fer not to, care for themselves.
  3. When the peo­ple who make mis­takes do not pay for mis­takes, they keep mak­ing them…bigger and big­ger. Can you say “mort­gage back securities”?
  4. We run out of money. When cap­i­tal from pro­duc­tive sources is siphoned away to sub­si­dize unpro­duc­tive invest­ments, cap­i­tal is destroyed and never to be found again. When there is less cap­i­tal avail­able for pro­duc­tive invest­ments, growth is forced to slow as are incomes and payrolls.
  5. When growth slows and jobs are not avail­able, bad things hap­pen. For an exam­ple of bad things happening now, take a look at the riots in the streets in Lon­don.

Until we allow the nat­ural price dis­cov­ery that unfet­tered mar­kets are designed to pro­vide, we con­tinue to sub­si­dize unpro­duc­tive invest­ments. And the longer we sub­si­dize unpro­duc­tive invest­ments, the more wealth (and jobs) we destroy in the present and in the future.

Sure, it feels bet­ter when the stock mar­ket sky­rock­ets, bank accounts are fat, growth is strong and the finan­cial future is bright. Wasnt that what we got in the 1990s, then again in the first decade of this century?

It can­not go on for­ever. Con­sider how much the hous­ing bub­ble was dri­ven by too much bor­row­ing? Though financ­ing might be cheap and easy to get for extended peri­ods of time, there is not an infi­nite supply.

At its core, bor­row­ing is sim­ply a method of cash­ing in today on future earn­ings. The more we bor­row against future earn­ings, the less we have in the future.

Using bor­rowed funds to sub­si­dize unpro­duc­tive invest­ments only com­pounds and accel­er­ates wealth destruction.

Key­ne­sian poli­cies can be suc­cess­ful in cer­tain sit­u­a­tions and for lim­ited amounts of time, but they can­not be sus­tained infi­nitely. Bor­row­ing and spend­ing by the gov­ern­ment can help the econ­omy sur­vive a soft patch or decrease the depth of a reces­sion, but it does not fix the under­ly­ing cap­i­tal allo­ca­tion problem.

Key­ne­sian eco­nomic poli­cies are patches to eco­nomic prob­lems, not fixes. If extended for too long, they only make mat­ters worse.

Before the hous­ing bub­ble, the gov­ern­ment was lev­ered to the hilt. After the hous­ing bub­ble, con­sumers are also lev­ered to the hilt. Both are strug­gling to bal­ance their checkbooks.

So who is left to bail us out? Only two potential candidates: Amer­i­can cor­po­ra­tions and for­eign countries.

A quick sur­vey of the sta­tus of the other major eco­nomic pow­ers is not exactly inspir­ing. China is slow­ing growth to fight its infla­tion prob­lems. The Euro­pean Unions, well, they have their own prob­lems. Japan is not exactly pros­per­ing. In gen­eral, there are few, if any, global eco­nomic bright spots. None are large enough to bail out any­one.

There are many bright spots in cor­po­rate Amer­ica. Com­pa­nies like Apple (AAPL-very attrac­tive rat­ing), Google (GOOG-very attrac­tive rat­ing), Microsoft (MSFT-very attrac­tive rat­ing) and many oth­ers are as prof­itable as ever. Their returns on cap­i­tal rank among the very best in the world. They are shin­ing exam­ples of cap­i­tal real­iz­ing its high­est and best use. For the coun­try as a whole, cash flow returns on assets are near all-time highs. Much of the recent prof­its, how­ever, have come at the expense of the con­sumer as wages have grown much more slowly than profits.

Then, there are the banks. US banks recently enjoyed the largest bailout in the his­tory of the world. Fur­ther, their profit mar­gins have been sub­si­dized by sus­tained low inter­est rates. And yet, they are lend­ing lit­tle money.

Is the prob­lem that banks do not want to lend or that there are not enough borrowers?

I think the answer is both. Many banks are still car­ry­ing a great deal of toxic assets. With so much risk already on their bal­ance sheet, they can­not afford to take on more.

As for bor­row­ers, the uncer­tain tax, reg­u­la­tory and eco­nomic out­looks are not exactly entic­ing entre­pre­neurs, small and large busi­nesses to take risk.

To sum­ma­rize, there is no one left to bail us out this time.

So, what hap­pens next? We buckle down and face the long hard road to true, not arti­fi­cially sub­si­dized recovery.

We rec­og­nize facts:

  1. We can­not spend more than what we make for­ever. Seems like an obvi­ous state­ment, but that is not how the United States has oper­ated over the past sev­eral years.
  2. We have wasted lots of cap­i­tal by sub­si­diz­ing unpro­duc­tive investments.
  3. We have delayed the process of cre­ative destruc­tion whereby unpro­duc­tive invest­ments are replaced by pro­duc­tive investments.
  4. Because of our waste­ful­ness and the delay in cre­ative destruc­tion, much time is required to restore wealth back to the lev­els to which we have become accustomed.
  5. We must rebuild dili­gently, ratio­nally and delib­er­ately to ensure cap­i­tal real­izes its high­est and best use.
  6. Kick­ing the can down the road, Euro-style, only delays the inevitable and makes the prob­lem worse.
  7. Even­tu­ally, we will be much bet­ter off than what we started.

In the mean­time, the stock mar­ket and eco­nomic activ­ity will con­tinue to suf­fer. No pain no gain.

 

 

Stock Market Slide Is the Latest Blow to the Middle ClassThe Daily Ticker  Peter Gorenstein Stocks resumed their decline on Wednesday -- the third big drop in the last five trading days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 520 points, or 4.6%. The S&P 500 fell 4.4% to close at 1,121, while the Nasdaq was taken down more than 101 points to the end the day at 2,381.In other words, Tuesday's gains, in which the Dow jumped 430 points, are a distant memory.Stocks are on track for their worst monthly drop since after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in the fall of 2008. After making steady gains in their 401(k) plans since then, average Americans are once again falling further behind on their retirement goals. The recent drop in the market is making headlines, but as Aaron Task and the Breakout team discuss in this clip, it's by no means the only economic hardship facing the middle class -- it's just the latest. Here are some other headlines you might have missed while you were watching your portfolio shrink over the last few days.

HORRIFIC HOUSING MARKET

Existing home sales fell 2.8% in the second quarter compared to a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors. The number of home sales is also off, falling 5.4% from the previous quarter and is down almost 13% compared to the sometime last year. At this rate the housing market will continue to be a drag on the economy.

BACKDOOR BAILOUT FOR BANKS

Meanwhile, as homeowner pain reaches new heights, it appears banks continue to receive favorable treatment from the government. The Wall Street Journal reports Fannie Mae -- essentially a government entity (that by the way continues to receive billions in taxpayer aid each quarter) -- just spent $500 million to buy the servicing rights to a Bank of America (BAC) portfolio of "seven million loans still causing the most problems." That's what they call a backdoor bailout.Speaking of Bank of America, the stock continued to mirror the pattern of steep sell-offs and furious rallies seen in the broader market. This time, shares of BofA were down 10.9% to $6.77. A conference call held by CEO Brian Moynihan with investors, led by Fairholme's Bruce Berkowitz, didn't help the bank's cause. According to a summary of the call in the WSJ, Moynihan pushed back against those who would question how he has performed while leading the company, and he said BofA would not part ways with brokerage firm Merrill Lynch. Additionally, he said there weren't "many days when I get up and think positively about the Countrywide transaction in 2008."BofA bought the big mortgage firm during the 2008 credit crisis, and it has been responsible for a gigantic financial drag on the firm in the time since.

FED'S FOLLY

The Federal Reserve on Tuesday said it will keep interest rates "exceptionally low" through the middle of 2013. That and the possibility of more quantitative easing may eventually reflate assets -- a good thing for stock portfolios. The problem is the Fed's reaction to the crisis has and will continue to do little to improve real economic conditions, such as stubbornly high unemployment, which remains at 9.1% more than two years after the financial crisis. And, for those able to save some money, the low interest rates aren't rewarding your bank accounts. Add it all up, and unfortunately there's little to feel good about.

 

 

Report: DOJ investigating S&P's mortgage securities ratings Associated Press The Justice Department is investigating whether the agency improperly rated dozens of mortgage securities in the years leading up to the financial crisis. (Washington Post) [ There you go the retaliation the long awaited payback (quid pro quo -the no pros- witheld) for long overdue pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt u.s. downgrade. They should be investigating themselves, the SEC ( SEC destroyed documents, senator says ), among numerous other fraudulent, illegal schemes, activities.  SHARE YOUR OPINION ON THE DEBT LIMIT
Dear Congresswoman Roybal-Allard:

The following is my comment to an LA Times article regarding a Justice Department cover-up! As for your inquiry, all I think about day and night is a long overdue resolution to the RICO litigation as set forth therein:

ATF Chief Melson:Justice Department trying to shield officials (LATimes) Serrano

 

I believe him!

 I truly empathize with the ATF in terms of government cover-ups, notably by even the DOJ. You’ll recognize some familiar names (ie., Alito, Trump, Freeh (Louis Freeh now has dual citizenship with Italy), and some familiar crimes (ie., drug money laundering, etc. – real cash cow for gov’t ops, bribes, etc.). [Did you know this about the following ATF Agents who were probably viewed as loose ends: Steve Willis, Robert Williams, Todd McKeahan & Conway LeBleu:   Died February 28, 1993 by gunfire at Waco. All four were examined by a pathologist and died from identical wounds to the left temple. All four had been body guards for Bill Clinton, three while campaigning for President and when he was Governor of Arkansas.They also were the ONLY 4 BATF agents killed at Waco. ]

 

 

 

Heres some real, complicit cover-up / fraud on the part of the federal government, et als:

 

October 15, 2010 (*see infra {ultimately delivered by UPS})

 

 

Steven M. Martinez, Assistant Director In Charge
Federal Bureau of Investigation, USDOJ
11000 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 1700

Los Angeles, CA 90024

 

 

Dear Sir:

 

I enclose herewith 3 copies of the within DVD rom autorun disk (which will open in your computers browser) as per your offices request as made this day (the disk and contents have been scanned by Avast, McAfee, and Norton which Ive installed on my computer to prevent viral attacks / infection and are without threat). I also include 1 copy of the DVD as filed with the subject court as referenced therein (which files are also included on the aforesaid 3 disks in a separate folder named 112208opocoan). The (civil) RICO action (as youre aware, the RICO Act is a criminal statute which provides a civil remedy, including treble damages and attorney fees, as an incentive for private prosecution of said claims probably owing to the fact that the USDOJ seems somewhat overwhelmed and in need of such assistance given the seriousness and prevalence of said violations of law which have a corrupting influence on the process, and which corruption is pervasive). A grievance complaint against Coan was also filed concurrently with the subject action and held in abeyance pending resolution of the action which was illegally dismissed without any supporting law and in contravention of the Order of The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge, USDC, District Connecticut. The files below the horizontal rule are the referenced documents as filed. (Owing to the damage to the financial interests of both the U.S. and the District of Congresswoman Roybal-Allard, viz., Los Angeles, the Qui Tam provisions of the Federal False Claims Act probably would apply and I would absent resolution seek to refer the within to a firm with expertise in that area of the law with which I am not familiar).

 

 

The document in 5 pages under penalty of perjury I was asked to forward to the FBI office in New Haven is probably the best and most concise summary of the case  RICO Summary to FBI Under Penalty of Perjury at Their Request (5 pages)      [  ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf   http://albertpeia.com/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf          ].

 

 

The correspondence I received from the Congresswoman by way of email attachment (apparent but typical problem with my mail) along with my response thereto is included on the 3 disks as     fbicorrespondencereyes.htm     .   With regard to the calls to the FBIs LA and New Haven, CT offices: There was one call to the LA office and I was referred to the Long Beach, CA office where I personally met with FBI Agent Jeff Hayes to whom I gave probative evidentiary documents of the money laundering which he confirmed as indicative of same (he was transferred from said office within approximately a month of said meeting and his location was not disclosed to me upon inquiry). The matter was assigned to FBI Agent Ron Barndollar and we remained in touch for in excess of a decade until he abruptly retired (our last conversation prior to his retirement related to the case and parenthetically, Rudy Giuliani whose father I stated had been an enforcer for the mob to which he registered disbelief and requested I prove it, which I did he served 12 years in prison, aggravated assault/manslaughter? and no, there is no Chinese wall of separation Andrew Maloneys the one that prosecuted gotti).

 

 

In contradistinction to the statement in said correspondence, there is a plethora of information including evidence supporting the claims set forth in the    RICO VERIFIED COMPLAINT    (see infra). Such includes and as set forth in the case, inter alia,

 

 

 

 

There is applicable insurance / surety coverage and neither LA, nor creditors, nor I should continue to have been damaged by this brazened corrupt and illegal scenario, which should be resolved in accordance with the meaningful rules of law apposite thereto.

 

 

Sincerely,

 

 

Albert L. Peia

611 E. 5th Street, #404

Los Angeles, CA 90013

(213) 219-**** (cell phone)

(213) 622-3745 (listed land line but there are unresolved problems with the line, computer connection may be the reason but I hesitate to chance greater non-performance / worsening by their fix so cell phone best for contact).{recent change 323-786-6651 -magic jack}

 

 

                       ----------

 

*The foregoing and as indicated therein was previously send 9-14-10 but delivery confirmation was flawed as set forth below and my inquiries to the u.s. postal service rebuffed (I believe tampered with inasmuch as your office could not locate same). This cover letter (9-13-10) is on the 3 disks with navigable hyperlinks to the subject files for ease of reference, including the files in the RICO action as indicated. (10-15-10) I spoke with Rose, FBI, ADIC Secretary, who indicates once again that your office has not received the aforesaid and which can reasonably be presumed to have been tampered with, and hence, a violation of the federal statute concerning same. (Ultimately delivered by UPS) ]

 

 

http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf       http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm        Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holders vows to target financial fraud  WP Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown.    America Is a Failed State Because It Wont Prosecute Financial Crime  Washingtons Blog / the grim economic reality   [  http://albertpeia.com/grimreality.htm           

CRIME STATS(u.s.No.1)

Rank  

Countries 

Amount 

 

# 1  

United States:

11,877,218 

 

# 2  

United Kingdom:

6,523,706 

 

# 3  

Germany:

6,507,394 

 

UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE...      ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims ' Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holders vows to target financial fraud  WP | Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown.        


THE OBAMA DECEPTION
  http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv    

 


http://www.albertpeia.com 

 

 

 

Sincerely and Regards,

 

Al Peia




 

Unions angry over Postal Service cuts They said any move to break labor contracts to lay off 120,000 would hurt the already ailing movement. (Washington Post) [ I reiterate my call for the well managed, efficient, and reliable company, UPS to take over the operation of the poorly managed, inefficient, and unreliable USPS. Postal Service seeking 20 percent staff cut EXCLUSIVE | In cost-cutting bid, USPS also proposes withdrawing employees from existing health and retirement plans and creating its own benefit programs. Congress would need to sign off. (Washington Post) [ I think its a great idea. Indeed, 50% would be substantially better. Even better yet, UPS should take over their entire operation. After all, UPS is well managed and efficient; and also, very reliable. On the other hand, the USPS is poorly managed, inefficient, and very unreliable: 
October 15, 2010 (*see infra {ultimately delivered by UPS})

                       ----------

 

*The foregoing and as indicated therein was previously send 9-14-10 but delivery confirmation was flawed as set forth below and my inquiries to the u.s. postal service rebuffed (I believe tampered with inasmuch as your office could not locate same). This cover letter (9-13-10) is on the 3 disks with navigable hyperlinks to the subject files for ease of reference, including the files in the RICO action as indicated. (10-15-10) I spoke with Rose, FBI, ADIC Secretary, who indicates once again that your office has not received the aforesaid and which can reasonably be presumed to have been tampered with, and hence, a violation of the federal statute concerning same. (Ultimately delivered by UPS) ]

 



 

 

Five myths about the Dow What drives it up and down? Is it a good market barometer? (Washington Post) [ Yeah! This is a great topic which seems an age-old quandary manifesting in different forms at different times. Indeed, in my evening MBA program studies at NYU, GBA (MBA Finance, 1977) the ‘questions’ concerning the Dow from an investment perspective were in no short supply (ie., from not being representative of the market, to higher p/e multiples, to slower growth from mature companies, to higher prices per share on an absolute basis, etc.). When asked why the Dow, the Security Analysis Professor, Dr. Douglas Bellmore, an extremely successful analyst / investor / author on finance in his own right, and head of the research arm / department of an institutional wall street brokerage firm by day, would respond simply by saying, ‘ he wasn’t interested in ‘buying the market’ (cited were concerns of liquidity with his oft-repeated rhetorical quip, ‘sell … to whom?’, which was often problematic to the substantial downside then, particularly for Nasdaq / Over-the-counter’ issues which is far less problematic today with computer efficiency undreamed of then (though also now used for nefarious fraudulent purposes undreamed of then)[ I began my MBA thesis with him and completed same owing to his vacation in the summer, 1977, with the great, eloquent, and astute Economist / Professor, Dr. Robert Kavesh (‘Economic Forecasting’ Butler and Kavesh – I had his course of the same name as his book) since I was beginning law school evenings that fall. ] ( Interestingly, in the bond analysis portion of the course I asked whether you can and should rely on the rating companies, predominantly S&P. He paused, and said ‘that’s a good question’ – it was also the only time he said such of my questions – then responded affirmatively, ‘yes, you can rely on them’ (different time, different place – I’m sure his answer would have been substantially different today). The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed! So what’s changed of significance (other than the full moon and consequent effects on the lunatic wall street frauds Train Reading: The Stock Market Is Insane The Wall Street Journal 



 

GE all in on aviation deal with China  Challenge of China: Put technology on the table and keep some U.S. jobs or miss the huge market. (Washington Post) [ Lotta weighin goin on! Riiiiight! Dont make me laugh! Is China Bad For The US Job Market? at Forbes [ Duh! Ya think. Come on! Even rhetorically theres no real question here. Theres no upside nor room for discussion on this point. Even when thinking theyre buying american, ie., apple, etc., theyre buying Chinese, Korean, Japanese, etc. (components); and yet, american tech is still absolutely horrendous. And, let me add that the communist Chinese are far from brilliant; one need only witness that Chinese leader standing with lobotomy joe biden assuring all theyll be no default double duh! as pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt americas printing those evermore worthless dollars at warp speed. What dopes they are! Yes, like the bureaucratic plutocracy americans the communist Chinese whose success is measured in capitalistic terms are getting dumber and dumber like their american fiances. ] Has China single handedly destroyed the U.S. job market? [Not china, but rather those geniuses at the cia, nsa, corporate execs, the bushes/poppy-san the former communist Chinese ambassador and that strategic engagement thing. Wake up smell the b***s***, not roses! ]


 

 

Rep. Waters to tea party: ‘Go straight to hell’  (Washington Post) [  Drudgereport: SANTORUM: 'maxine waters is vile' [ she’s worse than that, and a total embarassment for america and california particularly! ] ...
Maxine Waters: 'The tea party can go straight to hell'...

Tea Party fires back...
MORGAN FREEMAN TELLS OBAMA TO 'GET PISSED OFF' [ sounds like a plan … ****** to ****** … the ****** plan! ] ...
Obama Economists Admit: 'Stimulus' Cost $278,000 per Job...
Philadelphia extends curfew after flash mobs [ new u.s. Christmas carol – ‘america’s beginning to look a lot like sub-saharan africa, everywhere you go’ . They are beasts of burden at most who are a burden to most at best  … you’ll never change them … Think about all those costly ‘make-work’ jobs that serve no real economic purpose; ie., federal, state, local, uspostal service, etc.. And, they can’t even do those jobs reliably, efficiently, effectively which is a drag on civilized society! ] ...

 

 

Details of Obama’s jobs plan emerge President is thinking about proposing tax cuts for companies that hire workers, new spending for roads and construction, and other measures that target the long-term unemployed, administration officials say. (Washington Post) [  Oh come on! Too little, too late for ‘wobama the b’ (for b***s***), the eternal campaign(er) … he’s got a ‘good rap’ … that rapper ‘wobama the b’ (for b***s***).  Really! He’s a total embarrassment out there on the campaign trail; and just as much an embarrassment for those who turn out to see him … maybe he’s somewhat of an allure as in a freak show. He’s a total joke! To be finally talking jobs and things just before the election having broken previous campaign promises in his failed role as ‘bush failure 3’. Even his pension is undeserved so much a fraud is he! Black caucus: Tired of making excuses for Obama [ They are not alone! ] Washington Examiner | A key member of the Congressional Black Caucus says they don’t pressure President Obama because he is loved by black voters.  Obama ‘Takes More Vacations Than Any Human Being I’ve Ever Seen’ Fox News | “Here we have a country that really is going to hell in a handbasket.” Bus Tour Bust: Obama’s Approval Plummets Back Into 30s, Says Gallup CNS News | Obama’s politically charged but taxpayer funded bus tour through the Midwest turned into a bust yesterday. Disapproval of Congress Hits All Time High of 84% Paul Joseph Watson | Americans are more upset with political leadership than ever before.

Drudgereport: BLACK CAUCUS ON OBAMA: 'WE'RE GETTING TIRED' [ Not as tired of wobama’s b***s*** / excuses as the ‘White Caucus’ and any other Caucus – but, don’t be taken in by their b***s***; they’ll ‘back the black’ every time, regardless!  ]New low of 26% approve of Obama on economy...
Inflation builds...
FOOD PRICES RISING...
UNEMPLOYMENT UP...
OBAMA TO LAY OUT JOBS PLAN -- AFTER VACATION...
'Takes More Vacations Than Any Human Being I've Ever Seen'...
Commiserates with jobless, then off to the Vineyard...

 

Even that italian, belafonte, isn’t buying ‘wobama brand(ed)’:

 

Drudgereport: HARRY BELAFONTE: Obama 'has failed'...
NOONAN: 'HE IS A LOSER'...
GALLUP: 40% APPROVAL...

Obama takes debt battle to TWITTER, loses more than 33,000 followers...
FARRAKHAN: 'THAT'S A MURDERER IN THE WHITE HOUSE'...      

Most importantly, realize that if wobamas actions had not belied his words/campaign promises, the nations position, though still ominous, would have been substantially improved.

http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf       http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm        Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holders vows to target financial fraud  WP Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown.    America Is a Failed State Because It Wont Prosecute Financial Crime  Washingtons Blog / the grim economic reality   [  http://albertpeia.com/grimreality.htm           

CRIME STATS(u.s.No.1)

Rank  

Countries 

Amount 

 

# 1  

United States:

11,877,218 

 

# 2  

United Kingdom:

6,523,706 

 

# 3  

Germany:

6,507,394 

 

UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE...ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims ' Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holders vows to target financial fraud  WP | Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown.        


THE OBAMA DECEPTION’  http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv  
 

 

 

 


European bank continues bond-buying It has become the region’s “last resort” investor as it tries to keep a lid on the rates paid by Italy, Spain.  (Washington Post) [ Nothing succeeds quite like failure in the ‘new west’. From people-killing, nation-bankrupting, nation-destroying perma wars to QE’s to gimmicks to ‘warp speed’ currency printing presses, the lock-step rush for the abyss like lemmings they’ve become. Never mind that across the board, such as the aforementioned has actually exacerbated the crisis / problems they were supposedly meant to solve. This truly has become a ubiquitous scenario of the blind leading the blind; with the blindest of all, viz., pervasively corrupt – defacto bankrupt america, leading the charge (no pun intended – though their credit bears mentioning  - 8 More Reasons Why You Should Be Deeply Concerned That The U.S. Government Has Lost Its AAA Credit Rating The Economic Collapse ‘…  #8 The U.S. national debt continues to get worse by the day.  Just check out what economics professor Laurence J. Kotlikoff recently told NPR….“If you add up all the promises that have been made for spending obligations, including defense expenditures, and you subtract all the taxes that we expect to collect, the difference is $211 trillion. That’s the fiscal gap” ..’   Why You Shouldn't Buy Into This Plunge Forbes/O'Neil‘The market is building momentum to the downside’). !  Italy unveils plan to calm fears of escalating crisis  (WP) [ Yeah, dem piigs were back in the news. Dem PIIGS still got problems.  Europe’s debt crisis threatens Italy (WP) [ Yeah, dem’ darn PIIGS.  Reminds me of that joke (I won’t repeat it here except the punch line): ‘That’s black bart’s girl’.  Pelosi: ‘We are not Greece’  ( but greecy Italy Italians voice concern over Italian debt crisis scenario [ Whew! Close call! There you go. Nothing to worry about now that wobama’s got a boehner … so not to be so hard on them; if pelosi says it, it must be true … Not! …Pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america, they, she look pretty greecey to me. After all, if the same’s wobama’s ‘far-reaching plan on debt’, we all know ‘wobama the b’ (for b***s***) is total b***s*** which means like Greecey PIIGS they’ll be back to the trough for more … slop … py.  Deficits And Stimulus Only Delay The Inevitable Collapse Bob Chapman | America is insolvent and has been so for a long time. US Is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece: Gross When adding in all of the money owed to cover future liabilities in entitlement programs the US is actually in worse financial shape than Greece and other debt-laden European countries, Pimco’s Bill Gross told CNBC Monday.  Maierhofer: ‘USA INCOME STATEMENT:Total federal spending in 2010 amounted to $3.456 trillion. Total receipts added up to $2.162 trillion. USA Inc.'s 2010 deficit was $1.294 trillion.The 2011 federal budget is $3.7 trillion with a projected deficit of$1.6 trillion. …USA BALANCE SHEET: Consensus estimates for unfunded obligations vary. Mary Meeker pegs the shortfall at $31 trillion, PIMCO's Bill Gross estimates the unreported debt to be $75 trillion, while other estimates exceed $100 trillion (these amounts are insurmountable) …’ ] 

 



As investors panic, CEOs vote with their wallets for local companies August has seen a historic uptick in the number of corporate insiders buying shares of their companies. (Washington Post) [ I’m now sorry I didn’t save the article that spoke to this recent phenomena as being contraindicated and not a good sign but rather merely a function of some recent fine print in new compensation plans constrained by current and expected poor financial / economic results. Indeed, of greater import is as pointed out by Navin just months ago: Stock Market: 4 Current Warning Signs  Navin ‘…1) The 5-year high in the level of insider corporate stock sales is telling. At 565 sells for every 1 buy, it’s never been higher. Yes, it’s normal for insiders to be selling some of their stocks so they can buy new yachts and some of this is pre-planned. But that ratio — which has spiked recently — is extraordinarily high, one might even say off-the-chart   The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed!  Train Reading: The Stock Market Is Insane The Wall Street Journal ,  Accounting Gimmics Resurface as Growth Flounders at TheStreet ‘Rebekah Smith, director of financial advisory services at accounting and consulting firm GBQ consulting, says accounting tricks and schemes are likely to start unraveling as we head into 2012 and the lag effect catches up. "The typical accounting fraud goes on for about 18 to 26 months before it is uncovered. The frauds that took place in 2009 are not going to surface until later in 2011 or into 2012." ‘  ,  Morgan Stanley Biggest Welfare Recipient as Federal Reserve Lent Banks $1.2 Trillion During Financial Crisis Wall St. Cheat Sheet  ,  Minyanville's T3 Daily Recap: Market Gives Back Weekend Gains Amid US Bank Woes at Minyanville’  ,  Social Security disability on verge of insolvency     ,  8-19-11  Welcome To The New Bear Market For Stocks  Forbes / Suttmeier ,  Dow/Gold Ratio Lowest Since 1987 Crash   Forbes /  Adrian Ash  ,   Ignore Buffett's Advice, Don't Buy Stocks Forbes /  Dohmen , The "Crimes" That Wrecked The Markets  Forbes / Lenzner  ,  Tech Leading Market Lower The Wall Street Journal  ,  Banks closed in Fla, Ga, Ill; 2011 total is 68   ,   No Recession Coming ... It's Already Here  Previous:8-18-11 Stocks rally off lows to suck suckers in and keep suckers sucked in on bad news (Jobless Claims, Inflation Rise More Than Expected CNBC) , fraud ( SEC destroyed documents, senator says    Crimes Wrecked The Markets    ), and b***s*** alone!  MKM Bracing For SPY To Drop 8% More; Nasdaq Nearing August Lows Barrons.com,  WHY NEW LOWS ARE LIKELY  8-18-11 Maierhofer, Is It 2008 Again? Looking at the Summer Crash of 2011 Gayed ‘A real bear market has begun …’ ,