http://albertpeia.com/spaincouldbringdowneubanksystem.htm
‘Spain was already experiencing a banking crisis as
well as a sovereign crisis. It’s now on the verge of a constitutional crisis
(as well as its ongoing sovereign and banking crises).
Secession crisis heaps pain on Spain
Spain lurched further towards a full-‐blown
constitutional crisis as Catalonia announced a snap election
potentially opening the way for the country’s most economically important
region to declare independence from Madrid.
As police in the Spanish capital
barricaded the Spanish parliament against anti-austerity protestors, the
government of Mariano Rajoy vowed to stand firm against a drive by Catalonia
for secession as the Spanish leader faces the most critical period of his
premiership.
“The hour has come to exercise our right
to self rule,” said Artur Mas, Catalonia’s president. He called the vote, which
is likely to be cast as a proxy referendum on Catalan independence, after Mr
Rajoy last week rejected his demands for greater fiscal autonomy, triggering a
wave of nationalist sentiment in the northern region.
The political turmoil within Spain came
amid signs that a German-‐led group of eurozone countries were
attempting to roll back an agreement reached in June that would free Spain of
tens of billions of euros in bank bailout debt.
Under the June deal, Spain’s €100bn
bank bailout would be shouldered by the new €500bn eurozone rescue fund, the
European Stability Mechanism, rather than the Spanish government.
On paper the ESM will not be given legal
powers to take over the bank bailouts entirely until the eurozone politicians
have agreed to a federal banking supervision system. But according to senior
officials Spain has promised that its bailout will be covered even though it is
scheduled to begin in November well before a final agreement.
However, after a meeting between the
German, Dutch and Finnish finance ministers on Tuesday, the three said the ESM
would not be allowed to take over “legacy assets” recapitalised before the
banking supervision system was in place. This calls into question the markets’ assumption that
Spain’s bailout and any assets put in the soon-‐to-‐be-‐created
Spanish “bad bank” will be covered by the deal.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/901894a6-‐0722-‐11e2-‐b148-‐
00144feabdc0.html#axzz27n7hfRTE
As I noted in previous articles, Spain
has three options:
1) Spain goes the “Greek route” of
agreeing to austerity measures in exchange for bailouts (which will implode the
economy).
2) Prime Minister Rajoy refuses to
impose austerity measures and is removed/ replaced by an EU technocrat who is
pro-‐austerity measures (like Italy experienced last year)
3) Spain defaults/ leaves the EU.
Thus far Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy has
opted to go for #1. The end result has been riots, protests, and now the threat
of Spain as a country breaking up. I’ve long averred that Spain will bring
about the break up of the Euro. By the look of things, we’re not far from this.
To whit, as the above article notes,
Germany, Holland, and Finland have decided to pull back on the promise of a
€100 billion Spanish bank bailout first established in June. These countries
are now stating that this bailout should be included as part of the ESM
mega-bailout fund’s banking program that could take years to
implement.
Spain doesn’t have time for this. As I’ve
noted before, Spain is facing a full-scale bank run (Spaniards pulled another
€17 billion from Spanish banks in August, bringing the year to date bank run to
over 18% of total Spanish bank deposits).
Now add multiple regional bailout
requests, as well as 25% total unemployment to the mix and Spain is an absolute
disaster. The Spanish Ibex knows it too…
Congratulations Mario Draghi, you
promised unlimited bond buying and you bought less than one month’s worth of
gains for Spain. If you want proof positive that Central Banks are losing their
grip on things, the Ibex is it. The moment we take out that trendline again,
it’s GAME OVER (what more can the ECB promise?)
“So what?” many investors will ask,
“Spain is nothing in the grand scheme of things.”
Wrong.
Spain’s sovereign bond market is
$2.1 trillion in size. And Spanish bonds are used to backstop hundreds of trillions of Euros worth of derivative and credit trades.
So when Spain defaults (and it will
eventually) all of these assets become worthless. And all of those trades blow
up. Imagine Lehman times ten.
On that note, I’m currently preparing
subscribers of my Private
Wealth Advisory newsletter for the coming European collapse. We’ve already opened to
special trades to profit from the continued pain in the EU. I’ve got four more
on deck for when things start getting really bad.
To find out what they are, all you need
to do is take out a trial subscription to my Private
Wealth Advisory newsletter.
You’ll immediately be given access to all of our current open trades as well as
my three Special Reports titled Protect Your Family, Protect Your Savings, and
Protect Your Portfolio.
Collectively, these reports outline
critical information for the coming crisis including:
1) What banks are most
exposed to systemic risk.
2) How, why, and where to buy
Gold and Silver bullion.
3) How much food you need to
stockpile, where to buy it and how to store it.
And more!
To take out trial subscription to Private
Wealth Advisory…
Best Regards,
Graham Summers