http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com
http://albertpeia.com/europeanmeltdown.htm
‘Is the financial system of Europe on the
verge of a meltdown? I have always maintained that the next wave of the
economic crisis would begin in Europe, and right now the situation in Europe is
unraveling at a frightening pace. On Monday, European stocks had their
worst day in over six months, and over the
past four days we have seen the EUR/USD decline by the most that it has in nearly seven months.
Meanwhile, scandals are erupting all over the continent. A political
scandal in Spain, a derivatives scandal in Italy and banking scandals
all over the eurozone are seriously shaking confidence in the system.
If things move much farther in a negative direction, we could be facing a
full-blown financial crisis in Europe very rapidly. So watch the
financial markets in Europe very carefully. Yes, most Americans tend to
ignore Europe because they are convinced that the U.S. is "the center of
the universe", but the truth is that Europe actually has a bigger
population than we do, they have a bigger economy then we do, and they have a
much larger banking system than we do. The global financial system is
more integrated today than it ever has been before, and if there is a major
stock market crash in Europe it is going to deeply affect the United States and
the rest of the globe as well. So pay close attention to what is going on
in Europe, because events over there could spark a chain reaction that would
have very serious implications for every man, woman and child on the planet.
As I noted above, European
markets started off the week
very badly and things have certainly not improved since then. The
following is how Zero Hedge summarized what happened on
Thursday...
EuroStoxx (Europe's Dow) closed today -1% for 2013. France, Germany, and Spain are all lower
on the year now. Italy, following ENI's CEO fraud, collapsed almost 3% from the
US day-session open, leaving it up less than 1% for the year. Just as we
argued, credit markets have been warning that all is not well and today's
afternoon free-fall begins the catch-down.
In
addition, the euro has been dropping like a rock all of a sudden. Just
check out this chart which shows what happened to
the euro on Thursday. It is very rare to see the euro move that
dramatically.
So
what is causing all of this?
Well,
we already know that the economic fundamentals in Europe are absolutely horrible. Unemployment
in the eurozone is at a record high, and the unemployment rates in both Greece
and Spain are over 26 percent. Those are depression-level numbers.
But
up until now there had still been a tremendous amount of confidence in the
European financial system. But now that confidence is being shaken by a
whole host of scandals.
In
recent days, a number of major banking scandals have begun to emerge all over
Europe. Just check out this article which summarizes many of
them.
One
of the worst banking scandals is in Italy. A horrible derivatives scandal
has pushed the third largest bank in Italy to the verge of collapse...
Monte
dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS.MI), Italy's third
biggest lender, said on Wednesday losses linked to three problematic derivative
trades totaled 730 million euros ($988.3 million) as it sought to draw a line
under a scandal over risky financial transactions.
There
is that word "derivative" that I keep telling people to watch
for. Of course this is not the big "derivatives panic" that I
have been talking about, but it is an example of how these toxic financial
instruments can bring down even the biggest banks. Monte dei Paschi is
the oldest bank in the world, and now the only way it is able to survive is
with government bailouts.
Another
big scandal that is shaking up Europe right now is happening over in
Spain. It is being alleged that Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and
other members of his party have been receiving illegal cash payments. The
following summary of the scandal comes from a recent Bloomberg article...
On
Jan. 31, the Spanish newspaper El Pais published copies of what it said were
ledgers from secret accounts held by Luis Barcenas, the former treasurer of the
ruling People’s Party, which revealed the existence of a party slush fund. The
newspaper said 7.5 million euros in corporate donations were channeled into the
fund and allegedly doled out from 1997 to 2009 to senior party members,
including Rajoy.
That
doesn't sound good at all.
So
what is the truth?
Could
Rajoy actually be innocent?
Well,
at this point most of the population of Spain does not believe that is the
case. Just check out the following poll numbers from the Bloomberg
article quoted above...
According
to the Metroscopia poll, 76 percent of Spaniards don’t believe the People’s
Party’s denials of the slush-fund allegations. Even more damning, 58 percent of
the party’s supporters think it’s lying. All of the Spanish businessmen with
whom I discussed the latest scandal expect it to get worse before it gets
better. Their assumption that there are more skeletons in the government’s
closet indicates what little trust they have in their leaders.
Meanwhile,
the underlying economic fundamentals in Europe just continue to get
worse. One of the biggest concerns right now is France. Just check
out this excerpt from a recent report by Phoenix Capital Research...
The
house of cards that is Europe is close to collapsing as those widely held
responsible for solving the Crisis (Prime Ministers, Treasurers and ECB head
Mario Draghi) have all been recently implicated in corruption scandals.
Those
EU leaders who have yet to be implicated in scandals are not faring much better
than their more corrupt counterparts. In France, socialist Prime Minister
Francois Hollande, has proven yet again that socialism doesn’t work by chasing
after the wealthy and trying to grow France’s public sector… when the public
sector already accounts for 56% of French employment.
France
was already suffering from a lack of competitiveness. Now that wealthy
businesspeople are fleeing the country (meaning investment will dry up), the
economy has begun to positively implode.
As
the report goes on to mention, over the past few months the economic numbers
coming out of France have been absolutely frightful...
Auto
sales for 2012 fell 13% from those of 2011. Sales of existing homes outside of
Paris fell 20% year over year for the third quarter of 2012. New home sales
fell 25%. Even the high-end real estate markets are collapsing with sales for
apartments in Paris that cost over €2 million collapsing an incredible 42% in
2012.
Today,
the jobless rate in France is at a 15-year high, and industrial
production is headed into the toilet.
The wealthy are fleeing France in droves because of the recent tax increases,
and the nation is absolutely drowning in debt. Even the French jobs
minister recently admitted that France is
essentially "bankrupt" at this point...
France's
government was plunged into an embarrassing row yesterday after a minister said
the country was ‘totally bankrupt’.
Employment
secretary Michel Sapin said cuts were needed to put the damaged economy back on
track.
‘There
is a state but it is a totally bankrupt state,’ he said.
So
what does all of this mean?
It
means that the crisis in Europe is just beginning. Things are going to be
getting a lot worse.
Perhaps
that is one reason why corporate insiders are dumping so much stock right now
as I noted in my article yesterday entitled "Do
Wall Street Insiders Expect Something Really BIG To Happen Very Soon?"
There are a whole host of signs that both the United States and Europe are heading for
recession, and a lot of financial experts are warning that stocks are way
overdue for a "correction".
For
example, Blackstone's Byron Wien told CNBC the other day that he expects
the S&P 500 to drop by 200 points during the first half of 2013.
Seabreeze
Partners portfolio manager Doug Kass recently told CNBC that what is
happening right now in the financial markets very much reminds him of the stock
market crash of 1987...
"I'm
getting the 'summer of 1987 feeling' in the U.S. equity market," Kass told
CNBC, "which means we're headed for a sharp fall."
Toward
the end of 2012 and at the very beginning of 2013 we saw markets both in the
U.S. and in Europe move up steadily even though the underlying economic
fundamentals did not justify such a move.
In
many ways, that move up reminded me of the "head fakes" that we have
seen prior to many of the largest "market corrections" of the
past. Often financial markets are at their most "euphoric" just before a crash hits.
So
get ready.
Even
if you don't have a penny in the financial markets, now is the time to prepare for what is ahead.
We
all need to learn from what Europe is going through right now. In Greece,
formerly middle class citizens are now trampling one another
for food. We all need to prepare financially, mentally, emotionally,
spiritually and physically so that we can weather the economic storm that is
coming.
Most
Americans are accustomed to living paycheck to paycheck and being constantly up
to their eyeballs in debt,
but that is incredibly foolish. Even in the animal kingdom, animals work
hard during the warm months to prepare for the winter months. Even so, we
should all be working very hard to prepare during prosperous times so that we
will have something stored up for the lean years that are coming.
Unfortunately,
if events in Europe are any indication, we may be rapidly running out of time.’