http://albertpeia.com/europeanhouseofcards.htm
‘The following
is an excerpt from our most recent issue of Private
Wealth Advisory. In it we outline how the EU’s economy is beginning to collapse
again, at the precise moment that Spain, Italy and Greece are becoming
embroiled in major corruption scandals.
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The house of cards
that is Europe is close to collapsing as those widely held responsible for
solving the Crisis (Prime Ministers, Treasurers and ECB head Mario Draghi) have
all been recently implicated in corruption scandals.
Those EU leaders who
have yet to be implicated in scandals are not faring much better than their
more corrupt counterparts. In France, socialist Prime Minister Francois
Hollande, has proven yet again that socialism doesn’t work by chasing after the
wealthy and trying to grow France’s public sector… when the public sector
already accounts for 56% of French employment.
France was already
suffering from a lack of competitiveness. Now that wealthy businesspeople are
fleeing the country (meaning investment will dry up), the economy has begun to
positively implode.
The first sign of
this came actually came from Germany. As we noted a few months ago, Germany had
prepared a working group to examine the impact of an economic collapse in France.
German Finance
Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has asked a panel of advisers to look into reform
proposals for France, concerned that weakness in the euro zone’s second largest
economy could come back to haunt Germany and the broader currency bloc.
Two officials,
speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters this week that Schaeuble asked
the council of economic advisers to the German government, known as the “wise men”, to
consider drafting a report on what France should do…
“The biggest problem at the
moment in the euro zone is no longer Greece, Spain or Italy, instead it is
France, because it has not undertaken anything in order to truly re-establish
its competitiveness, and is even heading in the opposite direction,” Feld said on Wednesday.
“France needs
labour market reforms, it is the country among euro zone countries that works
the least each year, so how do you expect any results from that? Things won’t
work unless more efforts are made.”
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/11/09/uk-germany-france-economy-idUKBRE8A80MN20121109
This German concern
has proven to be well founded, as the recent spate of French economic data has
been truly horrific.
Auto sales for 2012
fell 13% from those of 2011. Sales of existing homes outside of Paris fell 20%
year over year for the third quarter of 2012. New home sales fell 25%. Even the
high-end real estate markets are collapsing with sales for apartments in Paris
that cost over €2 million collapsing an incredible 42% in 2012.
Since the EU Crisis
began in 2008, France and Germany have been the two key countries backstopping
the implosion. The fact that France is now facing an economic implosion does
not bode well for the future of the Euro or the EU.
The other sovereign
backdrop for the EU, Germany, is also experiencing an economic slowdown.
The German
economy was hit hard by the euro zone crisis in the final quarter of last year,
shrinking more than at any point in nearly three years as traditionally strong
exports and investment slowed, the Statistics Office said on Tuesday…
Gross domestic
product shrank by 0.5 percent in the final three months of 2012, the worst quarterly performance
since Germany fell into a recession during the global financial crisis in
2008/2009 and only the second contraction since it ended.
The parlous
fourth quarter pushed overall growth for the year down to 0.7 percent, a sharp
slowdown from the 3.0 percent registered in 2011 and a post-reunification
record of 4.2 percent in 2010. The 2012 figure was a tad below a Reuters
consensus forecast for growth of 0.8 percent.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/15/us-germany-gdp-idUSBRE90E09Q20130115
Thus, we find that
Europe’s primary political market props (EU leaders including ECB head Mario
Draghi) are coming unraveled at the precise time that EU banks are showing
warning signs and the most important EU economies are heading sharply
south.
2013 is going to be
a very interesting year for Europe.
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