Weekly Recap - Week ending
09-Oct-09U.S. equity markets rebounded this week, rising for five consecutive
sessions to close sharply higher. The S&P gained 4.5%.
Nine of the ten sectors that make up the index advanced, led by Energy (+7.5%),
Financials (+6.7%) and Materials (+6.6%). The Financial sector was
stronger from the get go as Goldman Sachs on Monday morning upgraded the U.S.
Large-Cap Bank industry to Attractive from Neutral, helping the Bank Index
(BKX) rally 3.2%. It had seen a 6% slide over the prior two weeks.
Telecom was the only sector in the red (-2.5%), due to weakness in the
integrated telcos after AT&T (T) announced Tuesday after the close
that it would allow third-party applications to run packet-based voice calls on
its 3G network. This decision is expected to further commoditize voice
services on mobile networks, and could eventually lead AT&T and peer Verizon (VZ) toward offering and promoting
unlimited use plans as Sprint (S) currently offers.
While there was no important data this week to gauge the economic recovery, the
Reserve Bank of Australia's decision on Tuesday to raise its key lending rate
25 basis points to 3.25% was interpreted as another confirmation that the
global recovery is continuing. The S&P gained 1.4% that day.
However, Australia seems to be the exception, as the Bank of England, European
Central Bank and Bank of Korea all kept their benchmark rates steady this week,
though economists expect the latter to begin raising them as soon as next
month.
We'll have a few more pieces of economic data to break down next week,
including Retail Sales and FOMC Minutes on Wednesday, CPI on Thursday and
Industrial Production on Friday.
But the big story this week was the third quarter earnings reporting
season. While it doesn't really get going until the middle of next week, Alcoa (AA) unofficially kicked things off
Wednesday after the close with better-than-expected results. It reported
an unexpected profit, not solely due to cost cutting but also to modestly
better-than-expected sales, which is unlike the trend witnessed in the prior
quarter, while management predicted global aluminum demand will improve in the
second half of 2009.
Admittedly we're uncertain as to how the market will react to the third quarter
reports. There should be a greater demand for top-line driven earnings
growth, yet with easy comparisons coming in the fourth quarter, it is not hard
to see how the market could grant corporate America another pass.
We'll get a clearer picture next week, when the likes of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Intel (INTC), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), Goldman Sachs (GS), Nokia (NOK), Google (GOOG), IBM (IBM), Bank of America (BAC) and General Electric (GE) all provide results.
Finally, the Treasury calendar was a focal point for investors once again this
week, as $78 billion in longer-term securities (3-year Notes, 10-year Notes and
TIPS, 30-year Bonds) were auctioned off. While the results were positive,
they did not appear to have much effect on equity markets.
Index |
Started Week |
Ended Week |
Change |
% Change |
YTD % |
DJIA |
9487.67 |
9864.94 |
377.27 |
4.0 |
12.4 |
Nasdaq |
2048.11 |
2139.28 |
91.17 |
4.5 |
35.7 |
S&P 500 |
1025.21 |
1071.49 |
46.28 |
4.5 |
18.6 |
Russell 2000 |
580.20 |
614.92 |
34.72 |
6.0 |
23.1 |