Weekly Recap - Week ending
27-Mar-09The S&P 500 continued its rally off its March 6 lows, surging 6.2%
on the week, led by gains in financials as Treasury Secretary Geithner unveiled
his plan to purchase bad assets from banks and housing data came in better-than-expected.
The bulk of the gains were
made on Monday with the major indices gaining around 6% and financials spiking
17.7% as the Treasury Department released details regarding its plan to remove
troubled assets from the balance sheets of banks. The Treasury plans to create
a series of public-private investment funds to buy $500 billion to $1 trillion
in legacy loans and securities. To encourage participation from the private
sector, the government is taking on much of the risk and offering subsidies. In
a show of support, Bill Gross, co-Chief Investment Officer of the world's
largest bond fund, told Reuters that Pimco plans to participate in the program.
Also giving the market a boost
on Monday was news that existing home sales in February rose 5.1%
month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.72 million,
according to the National Association of Realtors. Economists expected a 0.9%
month-over-month drop to 4.45 million. A substantial portion of the sales were
from first time homebuyers and distressed properties.
Later in the week, the Census
Bureau released upside new home sales reports. February new home sales
increased 4.7% month-over-month at an annualized rate of 337,000, topping the
consensus estimate that called for a 2.9% decline. Though the result was
better-than-expected, it is important to note the increase is at 4.7% +-18.3%
(range of -13.6% to +22.7% ), which the Census Bureau notes makes it not
statistically significant because it is not clear if the sales rose or fell.
Meanwhile, sales are still down 41.1% +-7.9% from the previous year and are at
their second lowest rate on records dating back to 1963. Still, traders
took the data as an encouraging sign of a potential bottoming in new home
sales.
While low interest rates and
increased affordability are encouraging developments, the housing sector
continues to face high levels of inventory, tight credit conditions and the
deleveraging of consumers.
In other economic data,
February durable goods orders increased 3.4%, marking the first time in six
months that orders increased. Excluding transportation, orders increased 3.9%.
Economists expected respective declines of 2.5% and 2.0%, respectively.
Separately, final fourth quarter GDP reading showed a 6.3% annualized rate of
contraction, a slight decrease from the preliminary -6.2%, but better then the
6.6% decline that was expected.
Though not normally stock
market-moving events, Treasury auctions were widely watched after a U.K.
offering failed on Wednesday and a U.S. five year offering had disappointing
demand, resulting in a sharp drop in Treasuries and a brief pullback in the
stock market. But a 7-year auction on Thursday had solid demand, giving
the stock market a boost and easing concerns that the U.S. cost of borrowing
will increase in the face of record borrowing. On a related note, there
was some speculation the movement in Treasuries had to do with China, which
this week said it wants an international currency instead of using U.S.
dollars. In addition, the Federal Reserve said began its $300 bln
long-term Treasury purchase program on Wednesday.
As has been the case for the
last several months, Capitol Hill was in focus throughout the week. Fed
Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Geithner testified before the House
Financial Services Committee hearing regarding the rescue of AIG (AIG ).
Bernanke and Geithner expressed their own frustrations and opinions regarding
executive compensation, efforts to protect the economy, and risk-taking
constraints. Separately, Treasury Secretary Geithner testified before the House
Financial Services Committee that an overhaul of financial regulation is
needed. The changes would aim to limit risk in order to prevent future financial
crises.
World governments are likely
to garner attention next week, as the G-20 meets April 2. Tighter
regulation over the financial markets is expected to be an area of focus.
In corporate news, Best Buy (BBY)
surged 17.8% on the week after posting better-than-expected fourth quarter
earnings of $1.61, $0.21 better than the consensus. The retailer also
provided full year guidance that was well above expectations. Accenture (ACN)
lowered its outlook for the full year, sending its stock down 8.4% for the
week.
In the end, all ten sectors
posted solid gains for the week. Financials advanced 12.2% , industrials
gained 10.5% and consumer discretionary advanced 8.8%. Defensive sectors
underperformed on a relative basis, with utilities up 1.5%.
The S&P 500 is now up
22.4% from its March 6 low.
Index |
Started Week |
Ended Week |
Change |
% Change |
YTD % |
DJIA |
7278.38 |
7776.18 |
497.80 |
6.8 |
-11.4 |
Nasdaq |
1457.27 |
1545.20 |
87.93 |
6.0 |
-2.0 |
S&P 500 |
768.54 |
815.94 |
47.40 |
6.2 |
-9.7 |
Russell 2000 |
400.11 |
429.00 |
28.89 |
7.2 |
-14.1 |