YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]: Today's
flat session capped off a choppy week, with the end result being a weekly gain
of +0.6% in S&P 500. Stocks had continued their bullish trend during the
first part of the week, but a sharp intraday reversal yesterday, and another
intraday pullback today, pared a good portion of the week's gains. Although
yesterday's weakness followed Greece headlines and a disappointing bond
auction, and today's pullback took place amid escalating geopolitical concerns
after a South Korean naval ship sunk, neither intraday pullback was directly
triggered by a specific fundamental catalyst, making the moves more technically
driven.
After starting today on a positive note, equities gave up their early gains in
a sharp late-morning pullback. Headlines regarding a sunken South Korean naval
ship stoked the idea of increased tensions between South and North Korea,
and most likely contributed to some risk-paring, but it is still not clear if
North Korea was involved in the sinking of the South Korean vessel and naval
skirmishes between the two countries are not uncommon. Other than headlines on
the Korean situation, intraday newsflow was relatively light and volume was
below average.
Before the open, revisions to Q4 GDP were slightly worse than expected,
but didn't impact the pre-market trading picture. A better-than-expected
revision to the March University of Michigan Confidence reading helped boost
equities at 9:55 ET, but the move was short-lived and no follow-through
materialized. Today's action followed mixed trading overseas, with strength in
Asia being offset by modestly weaker performance in major European markets.
Notably, Greece's ASE Index rose 5.6% on the EU debt backstop.
While the S&P 500 is slightly higher on the week, market volatility
picked up a bit on the late-week pullbacks. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)
rose above 18 today, up ~2 points from last week's 22-month low near 16. The
rise in the VIX indicates increased expectations for near-term volatility. This
modest rise in the VIX also comes ahead of next week's full slate of
economic data, which could cause greater fluctuations in the market.
Interestingly, the big economic event of next week -- Friday's (4/2) March
employment report -- will take place on a day when the stock market
is closed for the Good Friday holiday. The bond market will be open however,
and the current expectation is for a +190K increase in Nonfarm Payrolls. Prior
to the week-end employment report, data on Personal Income and Spending
(Monday), Consumer Confidence (Tuesday), ADP Employment Change (Wednesday) and
Weekly Jobless Claims and ISM (Thursday), will all be released
earlier in the week.
The euro bounced off a 10
month low overnight as an agreement was made to rescue Greece, if need be. In
turn, the dollar index fell 0.6% this session. Despite the weakness in the
greenback, commodities failed to catch a substantial bid, they closed 0.2%
lower, collectively.
Thanks to the weak dollar,
precious metals netted a 1.1% gain this session. April gold closed 0.7% higher
at $1100.90 per ounce after closing below the $1100 level in the prior two
sessions. May silver closed +1.0% higher at $16.91 per ounce.
Energy commodities lost 0.7%
this session. Natural gas futures sold off hard into the close. The April
contract closed at $3.88 per MMBtu, down 2.5%. Natural gas prices are at lows
not seen since late September 2009; they are down 36% since January 5. After
hitting session low at $79.54 per barrel, May crude oil closed down 0.6% at
$80.02 per barrel.
In addition to an abundance of economic data, there are a few earnings of
interest next week. Bigger names include fertilizer company Mosaic (MOS) and Blackberry maker Research In Motion
(RIMM), which are
both due out Wednesday after the close. DJ30 +9.15 NASDAQ -2.28 SP500 +0.86
NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1105.2/2253.0/1108.6 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 599.1/1028.7/406.4