24-Apr (NY Times) — By any measure, the Spanish real estate boom was one of the headiest ever. Spurred by record-low interest rates, Spaniards piled into holiday villas along the Costa Blanca, gaudy apartments in Madrid and millions of starter homes throughout the country.

But since the frenzy drove Spanish home prices to a peak in 2007, they have fallen by at least one-fourth, and the bottom seems nowhere in sight. As Spain endures its second recession in three years and unemployment nears 25 percent, an increasing number of debt-heavy Spaniards can no longer meet monthly payments on the mortgages that their banks were all too eager to give.

With a rising portion of Spain’s 663 billion euros, or $876 billion, in home mortgages at risk of default, many economists say it is only a matter of time before some of Spain’s biggest banks will need a bailout. And the Spanish government, staggering under its own debt and budget deficit burdens, may not have the money to come to the rescue.

[source]

24-Apr (The Wall Street Journal) — U.S. billionaire investor George Soros compared the euro-zone crisis with factors that led to the Soviet Union’s collapse in the early 1990s.

“Europe is similar to the Soviet Union in the way that the euro crisis has the potential of destroying, undermining the European Union,” he said in a debate on public policy education Tuesday. “With the profound social, economic and moral crisis that Europe is in, we can see a similar process of disintegration.”

…“The euro is undermining the political cohesion of the European Union, and, if it continues like that, could even destroy the European Union,” he said in comments carried by Reuters. “You can grow out of excessive debt, you cannot shrink out of excessive debt.”

[source]

PG View: Soros is right, “you cannot shrink out of excessive debt,” but printing your way out of excessive debt certainly remains an option…

Buy Gold In Times of Relative Calm

24-Apr (USAGOLD) — Gold is firmer, but still within the recent range as the FOMC commences their two-day meeting. Despite some pretty discouraging US economic data, particularly on the housing front, consensus suggests that much like the March meeting, policy will remain steady without any overt hints of further QE. We’ll find out tomorrow at 16:30GMT.

As the Fed ponders monetary policy, the ECB seems to be maintaining the position that they’ve done enough and that salvation of the eurozone lies in the hands of the politicians. However, those very politicians are already paying a heavy price for the fiscal policies being foisted upon them. In just the last couple of days we saw a rather stunning electoral upset in France and two governments fail; one in the Netherlands and one in the Czech Republic. Have no doubt that the governments in the other periphery countries under severe economic duress are taking note.

One might reasonably argue that countries that implement severe austerity measures to reign in deficits risk being ousted by voters. Yet, failure to implement such measures risks the withholding of critical troika financial life-lines. There is no easy solution to the debt inspired woes that are plaguing Europe, which have resulted in renewed risk aversion. Investors are seeking shelter in German bunds and US Treasurys, even though their yields are below the rate of inflation.

Despite the hardline being taken by the ECB — and in particular the German contingent — shorter-term bund yields dipped once again below those of their Japanese counterparts yesterday. This is rather interesting in light of the uptick in hawkish sentiment in Europe and the widely held expectations that the BoJ’s next move will be to ease further. When this initially happened last week, for the first time in more than 20-years, the FT reported that the Eurozone is starting to look Japanese.

‘Risk-off’ sentiment is also underpinning the dollar, which has conspired to keep gold fairly well contained. The gold market is teetering on the edge of backwardation, and even out to the October contract on COMEX there’s only about $5 in time premium. On the surface this would suggest that further consolidation is in the offing for the yellow metal, but on the other hand — and particularly given the robust physical demand we’ve been seeing — one might deduce that pressures are building.

The latest IMF data show that Mexico, Russia and Turkey were all big buyers of gold in March, perpetuating the central bank gold buying spree. We view the shift in central banks from net gold sellers to net buyers over the last couple years as an extremely important paradigm shift. See the headline article in the latest USAGOLD Newsletter entitled, Surging central bank gold demand adds new dimension to bull market.

It was suggested yesterday on the ZeroHedge blog that gold might be the cheapest event-risk hedge going. I think that is in fact a practical way to look at gold, sort of beyond what is frequently sited as is primary roll as an inflation hedge. In the eyes of our firm and the vast majority of our clients, gold is above all else long-term wealth preservation, whether the risk dejour is inflation, deflation, systemic or event driven.

Speaking from experience – both as a gold owner and as a gold broker – waiting until black swans wing over the horizon to secure wealth preservation assets can be both expensive and stressful. Not only does buying in times of price stability and relative quiet, much like we have seen over the past few weeks, allow you to rest easier, it has in the past proven to be a very financially rewarding strategy.

• US consumer confidence fell to 69.2 in Apr, below market expectations of 70.0, vs negative revised 69.5 in Mar.
• US new home sales plunged 7.1% in Mar to 328k, above market expectations of 318k, vs positive revised 353k in Feb.
• US S&P Case-Shiller home price index for 20-cities -0.8% to 134.2 (nsa) in Feb, vs negative revised 135.2 in Jan; -3.5% y/y.
• Switzerland trade balance CHF1.7 bln in Mar, on expectations of CHF1.4 bln, vs negative revised CHF2.6 bln in Feb.
• Australia Q1 CPI +0.1% q/q, vs unch in Q4-11.
• Hong Kong trade balance -HKD43.9 bln in Mar, vs -HKD45.8 bln in Feb.

24-Apr (Bloomberg) — Mexico added 16.8 metric tons of gold valued at about $906.4 million to its reserves in March as nations including Turkey, Russia and Kazakhstan increased their holdings of the metal, International Monetary Fund data show.

Mexico raised its reserves to 122.6 tons last month when gold averaged $1,676.67 an ounce, data on the IMF’s website showed. Turkey added 11.5 tons, Kazakhstan 4.3 tons, Ukraine 1.2 tons, Tajikistan 0.4 ton, and Belarus 0.1 ton, according to the IMF. The data shows Russia boosted gold reserves by about 16.5 tons after its central bank said on April 20 they were higher. The Czech Republic reduced bullion reserves by 0.1 ton.

Central banks are expanding reserves after the metal climbed the past 11 years and holdings in exchange-traded products are about 0.7 percent below last month’s all-time high. The banks added 439.7 tons last year, the most in almost five decades, and may buy a similar amount in 2012, the London-based World Gold Council estimates. Gold reached a record $1,921.15 in September.

[source]

PG View: As our own Michael Kosares pointed out in the most recent USAGOLD Newsletter, the shift to net central bank gold buying is likely to prove the biggest shift in the supply/demand dynamic since the Central Bank Gold Agreement.

24-Apr (AP) — Home prices dropped in February in most major U.S. cities for a sixth straight month, a sign that modest sales gains haven’t been enough to boost prices.

The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home-price index shows that prices dropped in February from January in 16 of the 20 cities it tracks.

The steepest declines were in Atlanta, Chicago and Cleveland. Prices rose in Phoenix, San Diego and Miami. They were unchanged in Dallas.

The declines partly reflect typical offseason sales. The month-to-month prices aren’t adjusted for seasonal factors.

Still, prices fell in 15 of the 20 cities in February compared with the same month in 2011. That indicates that the housing market remains far from healthy despite the best winter for sales in five years.

[source]

24-Apr (Business Insider) — From the just released Case-Shiller housing report, a grim reminder of how much time we’ve lost.

The 20 city composite is now down to late 2002 levels.

[source]

23-Apr (The Wall Street Journal) — The fiscal condition of Social Security and Medicare, the two largest portions of the federal safety net, continued to deteriorate in the last year, with government trustees projecting Social Security will exhaust its trust fund three years sooner than previously thought.

The trustees for the two programs said in their annual report that the long-run deficit projections for both Social Security and Medicare worsened over the last year, putting the onus on U.S. policy makers to address the problems sooner rather than later to avoid hurting seniors, low-income households and others who depend on the program.

…Of particular concern is Social Security’s program covering disability insurance. The trustees said the disability fund fails both short- and long-term tests of fiscal health, and that they now project the fund will exhaust its trust fund in 2016, two years earlier than last year.

“The [disability insurance] program faces the most immediate financing shortfall of any of the separate trust funds; thus lawmakers need to act soon to avoid reduced payments to DI beneficiaries four years from now,” the trustees said in a summary of their report.

[source]

by James G. Rickards
23-Apr (USNews) — The International Monetary Fund completed their spring meetings last weekend amid communiqués and good feelings about what had been accomplished. There was optimism about improvement in the global economy albeit tempered by warnings that risks remained. Christine Lagarde, the organization’s managing director, was upbeat about new financing pledges to help build an IMF firewall to prevent contagion from countries in financial distress.

Yet, behind this facade of goodwill were stresses between the rising economic powers, notably Brazil, China, and India, and developed economies in Europe. In the middle of these stresses is the United States, which is the only country in the world with veto power over IMF decisions.

…This highlights the most interesting but least discussed aspect of the international monetary system—the hidden role of gold. The organization itself has the third largest gold hoard in the world, over 2,800 tons, just behind the United States and Germany.

…Paper currencies issued by Brazil and China that are backed by scant gold reserves are just paper. But currencies such as the dollar and the euro that are potentially backed by huge gold reserves are something more.

[source]

PG View: While central banks are always quick to dismiss the importance of gold; the truth is, that he with the most gold gets to make the rules.

23-Apr (The Wall Street Journal) — Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and his cabinet resigned Monday after his ruling coalition lost support of a populist party on disagreements over new measures to shrink the budget.

Queen Beatrix of the Netherlands will take the tendered resignations into consideration and has asked the cabinet to continue to work “in the interest of the kingdom.”

Mr. Rutte is scheduled to address the Dutch Parliament on Tuesday.

The widely expected step, which marks an end to the center-right minority government after just one and a half years, comes after weeks-long talks over measures to slash the Dutch government’s budget deficit.

[source]

PG View: Eurozone debt crisis claims yet another government…

23-Apr(MNI) – ECB Governing Council member Jens Weidmann on Monday suggested the central bank would tighten monetary policy once inflation risks in the Eurozone increase, even if this could hurt peripheral countries.

“After all, monetary policy must not lose sight of its primary objective: to maintain price stability in the euro area as a whole,” the president of the Bundesbank said in a speech to be delivered at the Economic Club of New York.

“Let us say that monetary policy becomes too expansionary for Germany, for instance. If this happens, Germany has to deal with this using other, national instruments,” the central banker elaborated.

“But by the same token, we could say this: even if we are concerned about the impact on the peripheral countries, monetary policy-makers must do what is necessary once upside risks for euro area inflation increase,” he stressed.

[source]

Vice Chairman Janet Yellen says the end of the Federal Reserve’s so-called Operation Twist won’t amount to a tightening of monetary policy. Whether investors agree may help determine the central bank’s next steps.

The Fed’s program to swap $400 billion of short-term securities in its portfolio for longer-term debt is scheduled to be completed in June, and Yellen, 65, doesn’t see the need for additional stimulus purely to blunt the impact. That’s because the measure eases policy by expanding the Fed’s balance sheet, not through the flow of purchases, she said April 11.

…Still, [NY Fed's William Dudley] and Yellen endorsed the central bank’s plan to keep borrowing costs low through late 2014, again giving no sign the Fed is ready to withdraw any of its stimulus. Yellen, who has spent most of her career teaching economics and researching labor markets, said she considers “a highly accommodative policy stance to be appropriate,” given unemployment will decline “only gradually.”

[source]

22-Apr (Forbes) — Beijing is planning to avoid U.S. financial sanctions on Iran by paying for oil with gold. China’s imports of the metal are already large, and you can guess what additional purchases are going to do to prices.

…Tehran, out of apparent desperation, in February said it would also accept local currencies, thereby avoiding the U.S. financial system. As a result, the Indians announced in January that they would not request a waiver from the Obama administration, and they began opening rupee accounts to pay for as much as 45% of their oil purchases with their currency. In 2011, India exported only $2.7 billion to Iran while buying $9.5 billion in oil. Similarly, the Chinese, smelling blood in the water, will surely press the Iranians to accept the non-convertible renminbi.

…But nothing shines like gold. And there is one other reason to be bullish on the yellow metal. “This isn’t the end of the road,” noted an unnamed senior administration official to the Wall Street Journal days after the enactment of the NDAA. “There are many other sanctions we can put in place and that our multilateral partners around the world can put in place and will be.” As Washington tightens financial measures against Iran, the mullahs will have less access to hard currency and therefore more need for gold.

[source]

PG View: This story is important on a couple of levels; not only is there the expectation of heightened gold demand, but the likelihood of oil deals being transacted in currencies other than dollars, further erodes the greenback’s standing as the global reserve currency.

23-Apr (Bloomberg) — Czech Prime Minister Petr Necas is seeking supporters to avoid snap elections and push through deficit cuts after the breakup of his coalition.

The three ruling parties agreed yesterday to dissolve the coalition as of April 27, while pledging to back bills in parliament that the Cabinet approved through April 11. Necas gave Deputy Premier Karolina Peake, who left the Public Affairs party last week, until today to secure the support of at least 10 lawmakers who defected with her to guarantee a majority for the Cabinet or he will initiate snap elections in June.

“While we do expect Peake to generate sufficient support for a new coalition-supporting faction and thus avoid elections in June, failure to do so could negatively impact the koruna,” Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc analysts David Petitcolin and Imran Zaheer Ahmad said in an April 20 report.

Governments across Europe have lost power in the past two years as German Chancellor Angela Merkel pushes for austerity to prevent the euro area from breaking up.

[source]

PG View: The koruna is already at a 2-month low.

23-Apr (USAGOLD) — European Central Bank officials led by President Mario Draghi resisted calls from the International Monetary Fund and U.S. Treasury to do more to stem the debt crisis roiling the euro-area economy.

As talks of global finance chiefs ended yesterday in Washington, euro-area central bankers from Draghi to Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann argued they have done enough by cutting interest rates and issuing more long-term bank loans.

“None of the advice that the IMF is offering has been discussed by the Governing Council, in recent times at least,” Draghi said on April 20 while attending IMF meetings in Washington. Weidmann said in an interview that “the problems in Europe can’t be solved by monetary policy measures.”

…Weidmann of the Bundesbank indicated the ECB may welcome higher borrowing costs as a way of forcing governments not to backpedal.

“Higher interest rates are also a spur toward reforms,” he said.

[source]

22-Apr (Reuters) — The Netherlands, a core euro zone member, was drawn into Europe’s debt crisis at the weekend when the government failed to agree on budget cuts, making elections almost unavoidable and casting doubt on its support for future euro zone measures.

Prime Minister Mark Rutte, whose centre-right coalition has been in power since October 2010, said on Saturday that crucial talks on budget cuts had collapsed after his ally Geert Wilders refused to do a deal, and that new elections were inevitable.

In the short term, the government must seek support for budget cuts from the opposition parties.

But uncertainty over the makeup of a new government, and waning voter support for bailouts and austerity measures, raised questions over Dutch backing for a fiscal responsibility pact seen as crucial to helping Europe cope with its debt crisis.

[source]

23-Apr (Financial Times) — Markets reacted nervously on Monday to the socialists’ first-round victory in France’s presidential election, as the eurozone crisis claimed another victim on Monday with the collapse of the Dutch government.

Analysis of François Hollande’s early lead – and the strategy he and Nicolas Sarkozy might adopt towards the far-right National Front’s unexpectedly large support – came amid a flood of statistical data underlining the tenacity of the eurozone’s problems.

The European Union’s statistics office said that although the 17 member states of the eurozone had reduced their deficits from 6.2 per cent of gross domestic product in 2010 to 4.1 per cent in 2011, overall debt still rose 1.9 percentage points to 87.2 per cent of GDP – the highest since the euro was created in 1999.

[source]

Spain on the Precipice

20-Apr (USAGOLD) — Gold is narrowly confined, despite a softer dollar tone. The euro was boosted by a German Ifo beat and the likely misplaced hope that the latest G20 meeting, commencing today, will provide some sort of global solution to the resurgent eurozone debt crisis.

Along similar lines, the IMF seems confident it will receive a $400 bln boost to its firepower, based on commitments from more than a dozen countries. The US, already the biggest contributor to the IMF, remains reluctant to pledge more.

However, it’s now Spain that is on the front-burner of the European sovereign debt crisis, the fifth largest economy on the Continent. Spain is clearly too big to fail, yet perhaps just as clearly, it’s too big to save. Despite all the extraordinary measures already employed to stabilize Europe, Spain appears on the brink of implosion.

This series of MoneyGame charts from earlier in the week pretty clearly illustrate the severity of the problems in Spain:

The percentage of bad loans at Spanish banks continue to rise. Note that while the pace slowed during last year’s tepid economic recovery, the trend remained disturbingly positive.

[source]

Exacerbating problems for the Spanish banks is the good old fashion bank run reflected in this chart. Depositors are fleeing in droves, forcing the banks to borrow from the Eurosystem to maintain solvency. It is becoming increasingly clear, that even in the wake of the massive ECB liquidity operations, Spanish banks may well need to be bailed out.

[source]

Spain’s IBEX35 stock index is down nearly 20% this year alone and even with today’s rebound, off about 56% since the 15,945.70 peak from late-2007. Ouch.

[source]

So what’s the G20 to do? Well the first thing they’re going to do apparently is to echo the sentiments of the ECB and tell the European politicians that the responsibility for the debt crisis lies with them. Not exactly the initial confidence builder the market was hoping for, and Spanish and Italian bonds in particular are back under pressure.

With Spain’s economy already getting crushed by austerity, unemployment on the rise, the banks under severe duress and its stock market plummeting, I’m wondering what exactly the G20 and the ECB see as the options available to the Spanish government. Perhaps this is just further retribution for Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s rejection of the agreed to deficit reduction target. Maybe the not so subtle message here is get back on the more severe austerity track, or we’ll let you wither on the vine.

However, as we discussed in commentary earlier in the week, this is a dangerous game to be playing, as austerity measures have a tendency to insight civil unrest and the downfall of governments. On the other hand, Spain could conceivably opt to exit the EMU, go back on the peseta and repudiate all or a portion of its euro denominated debt.

Such a decision would unquestionably come with its own form of pain, and not necessarily just for Spain. The IMF warned this week in its World Economic Outlook that a “disorderly default and exit by a euro area member” could lead to “a full-blown panic in financial markets“.

19-Apr (USAGOLD) — Gold has been rather choppy again today, initially losing ground as the safe-haven appeal was dulled by decent demand at both the French and Spanish bond auctions. While yields in France remained fairly steady, Spanish refinancing costs rose amid ongoing worries about the countries ability to get its fiscal house in order in the face of mounting growth risks.

It would also seem that much of the demand for Spanish bonds was coming from Spanish commercial banks, whose source of funds is probably the ECB LTROs. So the tottery Spanish banks are attempting to prop up the wobbly Spanish government and visa versa; two drunks holding each other up.

Bond giant PIMCO tweeted the following this morning:

Definition of a Shill: Spanish banks buying Spanish bonds. Come and get ‘em!

The yellow metal then rebounded smartly early in the New York session on resurgent rumors that France is on the verge of a sovereign downgrade, with a secondary rumor that the Netherlands was going to be placed on credit watch negative. French officials were quick to play this down, saying they have not been advised of any pending ratings actions and gold retreated back into the range.

While US initial jobless claims fell by 2,000 last week, the 386,000 claims were above market expectations for a ninth consecutive week. There was also a sizable upward revision to the previous week. I can’t even remember the last time there wasn’t an upward revision to a previous week; higher adjustments are simply expected these days. If the employment picture in the US continues to deteriorate, QE3 talk is likely to return with a vengeance, lifting gold in the process.

While US LEI for March came in a tick higher than expected at +0.3%, existing home sales and the Philly Fed index were negative misses in March. Persistent doubts about the sustainability of the US economic recovery provides additional fodder for the ‘will they, or won’t they?’ QE3 debate.

• US Philly Fed index fell to 8.5 in Apr, below market expectations of 12.0, vs 12.5 in Mar.
• US existing home sales -2.6% to 4.48M in Mar, below market expectations of 4.62M, vs positive revised 4.60M in Feb.
• US leading indicators +0.3% in Mar, above expectations of +0.2% vs +0.7% in Feb.
• US initial jobless claims -2k to 386k for the week ended 14-Apr, above expectations of 370k, vs upward revised 388k in the previous week.
• Italy industrial orders (sa) -2.5% m/m in Feb, vs negative revised -7.7% m/m in Jan; -13.2% y/y, vs -5.6% y/y in Jan.
• Italy industrial sales (sa) +2.3% m/m in Feb, vs -4.9% m/m in Jan; -1.5% y/y, vs -4.4% y/y in Jan.
• Eurozone consumer confidence – Flash fell to -19.8 in Apr, below expectations of -19.2, vs -19.1 in Mar.
• Hong Kong unemployment rate (sa) steady at 3.4% in Mar.

19-April (Reuters) — France and Spain sold all the bonds they wanted at auction on Thursday, though for Spain the cost was rising yields, indicating growing concerns the government will not be able to tame its deficit.

After a brief respite fuelled by a trillion euros of cash the European Central Bank (ECB) lent Europe’s banks in December and February, markets are becoming nervous again about euro zone debt loads, with fears that Spain might follow Greece, Ireland and Portugal in needing a bailout from international lenders.

That has put pressure on bond yields in the region, notably for Spain and Italy.

The Spanish treasury said it sold 2.5 billion euros ($3.3 billion) of two bonds, taking its issuance to half its gross target for the year.

It received bids for 3.3 times the offer on the shorter of the two bonds, and 2.4 times the longer, both up on previous auctions, suggesting Spanish banks were making the most of the ECB’s bounty.

[source]

PG View: Bond giant PIMCO tweeted the following this morning: Definition of a Shill: Spanish banks buying Spanish bonds. Come and get ‘em!