16-Apr (Reuters) — Argentina’s planned takeover of oil and gas company YPF is a desperation move aimed at boosting investment in oil and gas production while avoiding policy shifts that might have otherwise made the sector more attractive to private capital.

The country’s oil and gas reserves have tumbled in recent years as heavy-handed regulation has made the sector unattractive to many private investors.

The partial renationalization is effectively an effort to maintain those policies, including bans on exports of hydrocarbons and price controls that keep both oil and gas prices below international levels.

[source]

PG View: Nationalization of private companies is always an ominous harbinger. Rumors of Spanish employees being kicked out of company headquarters. This along with surging inflation and CDS premiums suggest the wheels may be coming off in Argentina once again…

16-Apr (USAGOLD) — Gold starts the week on defensive footing, after a disappointing close on Friday. Risk aversion remains the overriding theme as concerns about Spain continue to mount.

Yields on Spanish 10-year bonds have pushed convincingly back above 6% today after probing above this level late last week. The ECB revealed today that they didn’t settle any SMP bond purchases last week, despite upward pressure on rates. Perhaps the ECB has decided to make an example of Spain and Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, who famously rejected an agreed to deficit reduction target without first consulting with the ECB.

While I think the ECB would like Rajoy to pay a political price for his defiance, I don’t think they want to drive Spain to the point of tapping the EFSF/ESM for fear of triggering contagion. They are probably simply looking to send a message to the rest of the periphery: You shirk your fiscal responsibilities at your own peril.

ECB policymakers have been quite adamant recently, stated that the central bank has done enough and now the responsibilities lie with the individual governments. The most recent comments coming from the ECB’s Joerg Asmussen (Germany) who told The Wall Street Journal over the weekend, “The ball is with governments, they have to act.” The ECB can now stand firm and not offer any additional bond buying or liquidity measures, or they can cave once again because governments are loathe to make additional cuts that negatively impact growth and employment.

The former would likely lead to Spain requiring a bailout and certainly igniting contagion fears, if not actual contagion. Or, perhaps worse yet, force Spain out of the EMU. The latter would be just another kick of the can, buying — Spain in this case — a little more time, but doing nothing to resolve the underlying fiscal issues. It would also assuredly further anger the Germans, eroding market confidence in the ECB itself. The central bank is playing a dangerous game here.

This is the same thing we said about Greece. And while the Greeks are undoubtedly thankful that Spain has pushed them from the headlines, Greece remains a train-wreck as austerity measures continue to undermine an economy on life-support courtesy of their second bailout.

The euro briefly probed below 1.3000 in overseas trading, its lowest level in 9-weeks. The corresponding rise in the dollar is keeping the yellow metal from mounting a rebound at this point. However, as the European debt crisis returns to center stage with the deck chairs only slightly reshuffled, the safe-haven properties of gold may well prove attractive once again.

• US TIC net capital inflows +$107.7 bln in Feb, vs +$3.1 bln in Jan, which was revised down sharply from $18.8 bln originally.
• US NAHB homebuilder sentiment fell to 25 in Apr, vs 28 in Mar.
• US business inventories +0.6% in Feb, above expectations of +0.5%, vs upward revised +0.8% in Jan; sales +0.7%.
• US retail sales +0.8% in Mar, above market expectations of +0.5%, vs negative revised +1.0% in Feb; ex-auto +0.8% on expectations of +0.6%.
• NY Empire State index fell to 6.56 in Apr, well below market expectations of 18.0, vs 20.2 in Mar.
• Eurozone trade balance (sa) €3.7 bln in Feb, vs negative revised €5.3 bln in Jan; (nsa) €2.8 bln.
• Turkey unemployment rate (sa) rises to 10.2% in Mar, vs 9.8% in Feb.
• Italy trade balance (total) -€1.1 bln in Feb, vs -€4.4 bln in Jan.
• India monthly WPI +6.9% y/y in Mar, vs +7.0% y/y in Feb.

by Wolfgang Münchau
15-Apr (Financial Times) — Are the markets panicking because Spain may fail to hit its deficit targets, or are they panicking at the thought that Spain may succeed? That, to me at least, is the key question facing eurozone policy makers. The ultimate outcome of the eurozone crisis will depend to a large extent on how that question is answered.

News coverage seems to suggest that the markets are panicking about the deficits themselves. I think this is wrong. The investors I know are worried that austerity may destroy the Spanish economy, and that it will drive Spain either out of the euro or into the arms of the European Stability Mechanism.

…The Spanish economist Luis Garicano made a calculation, as reported in El País, in which the reduction in the deficit from 8.5 per cent of GDP to 5.3 per cent would require not a €32bn deficit reduction programme (which is what a correction of 3.2 per cent would nominally imply for a country with a GDP of roughly €1tn), but one of between €53bn and €64bn. So to achieve a fiscal correction of 3.2 per cent, you must plan for one almost twice as large.

Spain’s effort at deficit reduction is not just bad economics, it is physically impossible, so something else will have to give. Either Spain will miss the target, or the Spanish government will have to fire so many nurses and teachers that the result will be a political insurrection.

[source]

Britain’s exchange rate is “crippling” the economic recovery, and devaluing the pound by as much as 25 percent could push growth back to an annual 4 percent, research group Civitas said.

The pound’s “significant” drop since 2008 hasn’t been enough to make U.K. exports competitive on world markets, and a future decline in the currency is inevitable, according to John Mills, the author of the Civitas report published in London today. A devaluation of as much as 15 percent would balance the U.K.’s trade deficit, he said.

[source]

PG View: Currency war saber rattling…

16-Apr (Washington Post) — Spain’s cost of borrowing on the international debt markets rose sharply again Monday, increasing concern that the country may become the latest member of the eurozone to seek a financial bailout.

The yield — the interest rate Spain would have to pay to raise money on the debt markets — on the country’s 10-year government bonds jumped to 6.10 percent on the secondary market, according to financial data provider FactSet. It had closed at 5.93 percent Friday after a week of persistent market tension.

Monday’s yield is the highest since the country’s new conservative government under Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy took office in December.

[source]

By Sheila Bair
13-Apr (Washington Post) — Are you concerned about growing income inequality in America? Are you resentful of all that wealth concentrated in the 1 percent? I’ve got the perfect solution, a modest proposal that involves just a small adjustment in the Federal Reserve’s easy monetary policy. Best of all, it will mean that none of us have to work for a living anymore.

For several years now, the Fed has been making money available to the financial sector at near-zero interest rates. Big banks and hedge funds, among others, have taken this cheap money and invested it in securities with high yields. This type of profit-making, called the “carry trade,” has been enormously profitable for them.

So why not let everyone participate?

…Some may worry about inflation and long-term stability under my proposal. I say they lack faith in our country. So what if it cost 50 billion marks to mail a letter when the German central bank tried printing money to pay idle workers in 1923?

That couldn’t happen here. This is America. Why should hedge funds and big financial institutions get all the goodies?

[source]

PG View: Former FDIC chairwoman Sheila Bair provides a little perspective by taking lighthearted but poignant jabs at the Fed’s zero interest rate policy, the bailouts of the past several years and income inequality.

13-Apr (The Wall Street Journal) — The cause of the financial crisis stemmed from fundamental breakdowns in both markets and regulation, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Friday, highlighting the importance of pressing forward with an important overhaul of banking regulations.

“The vulnerabilities that underlay the recent crisis must be fully addressed,” the central bank leader said. “As you know, this process is well under way at both the national and international levels.”

Mr. Bernanke’s speech revisited points he has made in a number of previous addresses, including his recent series of academic lectures at George Washington University.

[source]

PG View: More focus on regulation and financial stability, continued absence of fresh policy dovishness, is weighing on gold intraday.

13-Apr (Bloomberg) — Investors optimistic enough to predict that the Federal Reserve won’t buy more debt to support the economy decreased this month amid slower job growth, according to a Citigroup Inc. survey.

Almost 45 percent of respondents said they didn’t expect the Fed to carry out more quantitative easing, known as QE3, according to the April survey by the bank’s Citigroup Global Markets unit. That was down from about 60 percent of respondents who expected no QE3 in a March survey. The recent results were published yesterday in a research note.

The central bank has purchased $2.3 trillion of bonds in two rounds quantitative easing since 2008. The Fed’s replacement of $400 billion in shorter maturities with longer-term debt under what is known as Operation Twist will end in June.

[source]

13-Apr (Bloomberg) — The cost of insuring against a Spanish default jumped to a record as Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy struggles to prevent the nation from becoming the fourth euro-region member to need a bailout.

Credit-default swaps on Spain rose 17 basis points to 498 as of 4 p.m. in London, surpassing the previous all-time high closing price of 493, according to CMA. The contracts are up from 431 at the start of the month and 380 at the end of 2011, signalling a deterioration in investor perceptions of credit quality.

“Spain is viewed as the next most likely to be in need of a financing program,” said Brian Barry, an analyst at Investec Bank Plc in London. “It’s not surprising to see CDS widening.”

[source]

13-Mar (USAGOLD) — Gold is lower this morning, weighed by weaker than expected Q1 GDP in China and a pretty tame CPI print here in the States. Nonetheless, the yellow metal is up nearly 2% on the week, largely because of a rebound in QE3 expectations.

Stocks and gold surged yesterday, lifted by a whisper that China’s Q1 GDP was going to beat expectations and come in around 9%. That proved to be a false rumor, with the actual print being 8.1%, below expectations of 8.3%, versus 8.9% in Q4. While stocks and gold are under pressure today on the miss, the yellow metal seems to be comparatively buoyant.

Perhaps it is the continued deterioration of the situation in Europe that is prompting investors to hang on to their gold. The yield on 10-year Spanish bonds climbed back above 6% on Friday, while CDS premiums hit a new all time high of 498 bps. Not surprisingly, Bank of Spain data revealed on Friday that Spanish commercial bank borrowing from the ECB surged to €227.6 bln in March, versus €152.4 bln in February. Even as the Europe’s fifth largest economy threatens to implode, the ECB has reiterated once again that it has no intention of restarting periphery debt purchases. The ECB’s position since LTRO2 has been, ‘we’ve done enough, now it’s up to the governments of Europe to do the rest’.

Given all the hoops that Greece had to jump through to secure their second bailout — which was supposed to prevent contagion to the larger economies — we’ll see how long the ECB can maintain their hardline if it turns out Spain needs a bailout as well. The late-March boost in the EFSF/ESM bailout fund was also suppose to instill a level of confidence in periphery bond buyers, but that sure didn’t last long.

European stocks were hammered today.

Data this week add to concerns about the moribund US economy as well, following a disappointing nonfarm payrolls report last Friday. Initial claims reported on Thursday saw a disturbing spike, and the previous week was revised significantly higher as well. Consumer confidence fell in April; the first decline since August 2011. If US growth slows further — or worse yet, the unemployment rate starts to edge higher — in the near-term, one might expect that further Fed measures would become all-but assured. That would in turn likely reignite a fire under the gold market.

• University of Michigan consumer sentiment (prelim) falls to 75.7 in Apr, below market expectations of 77.0, vs 76.2 in Mar.
• US CPI +0.3% in Mar, in-line expectations, vs +0.4% in Feb; 2.7% y/y, vs 2.9% y/y in Feb. Core +0.2%, in-line with expectations.
• Germany CPI (final) +0.3% m/m in Mar, in-line with expectations; 2.1% y/y.
• Spain CPI (final) +0.7% in Mar, vs 0.1% preliminary print; 1.9% y/y.
• Italy industrial production (sa) -0.7% m/m in Feb, below expectations of +0.1%, vs negative revised -2.6% in Jan; -6.3% y/y (wda).
• UK PPI Input (nsa) +1.9% m/m in Mar, vs positive revised +2.5% in Feb; 5.8% y/y, above expectations of 4.6%, vs upward revised 7.8% y/y in Feb.
• UK PPI Output (nsa) +0.6% m/m in Mar, vs +0.6% in Feb; 3.6% y/y, above expectations of 3.4%, vs 4.1% y/y in Feb.
• Singapore Q1 GDP (advance) +1.6% y/y, vs 3.6% y/y in Q4.
• Singapore retail sales (nominal) +19.0% y/y in Feb, vs upward revised +1.8% y/y in Jan.
• BoK hold steady on repo rate at 3.25%, in-line with expectations.
• China Q1 GDP +8.1% y/y, below market expectations of +8.3% and whisper of +9.0%, vs 8.9% y/y in Q4.
• China industrial output +11.9% y/y in Mar, vs +11.4% in Feb.
• China retail sales +15.2% y/y in Mar, vs +14.7% y/y in Feb.

13-Apr (Reuters) — China’s economy grew at its slowest in nearly three years in the first three months of 2012, with a weaker than expected reading raising investor concerns that a five-quarter long slide has not bottomed and that more policy action would be needed to halt it.

The annual rate of GDP growth in the first quarter slowed to 8.1 percent from 8.9 percent in the previous three months, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday, below the 8.3 percent consensus forecast of economists polled by Reuters.

…Growth of 8 percent is widely regarded as the threshold at which China struggles to create enough jobs for new entrants to its 800 million-strong workforce, raising the risk of social instability that Beijing abhors and so increasing the likelihood of stimulus measures being rolled out.

[source]

PG View: This was a bigger disappointment than the numbers would indicate as the whisper on Thursday was for a beat at +9%.

12-Apr (Dow Jones) — The premium between Argentina’s official exchange rate and a parallel rate has approached levels in recent days last seen at the height of the 2008-09 global financial crisis in a sign that President Cristina Kirchner’s economic policies continue to erode confidence in the local currency.

After winning re-election in October with 54% of the vote, Kirchner implemented strict foreign exchange controls and import barriers to protect the central bank’s international reserves that are a key source of government funding.

Dollar-hungry businesses and well-heeled individuals have increasingly turned to the “blue-chip swap,” known locally as “contado con liquidacion”, to move money out of the country or to obtain the U.S. dollars they need to pay foreign suppliers.

The blue-chip swap involves the purchase of dollar-denominated Argentine bonds or the local shares of companies with ADRs in the U.S. and the subsequent sale of those securities abroad for dollars.

…As of Wednesday, the peso had weakened 1.9% versus the dollar for the year. But when annual inflation that most economists peg at 20% to 25% is taken into account, the peso has strengthened to the detriment of the manufacturing sector.

Kirchner and the central bank, which is run by a close ally of the president, have largely closed the door on conventional inflation-fighting measures such as raising interest rates to cool the economy. A new law also gives the administration greater discretion to borrow from the central bank, which some economists have interpreted as a license to print money.

In a worrisome sign, 12-month inflation expectations rose to 30% from 25% in a closely followed monthly survey published in March by the respected Torcuato Di Tella University.

[source]

PG View: Below the radar, inflation is Argentina soars.

12-Apr (WSJ Blogs) — Stocks are jumping this morning, yet there doesn’t appear to be many fundamental reasons for the sudden uptick. Jobless claims stunk and PPI data didn’t exaclty sway opinions on inflation or the Fed’s stance on more accommodation.

But several traders are passing notes around saying the whisper numbers for China’s first-quarter GDP report may be much better than initially anticipated.

…For what it’s worth, Peter Boockvar of Miller Tabak says these rumors are being misinterpreted:

The Chinese govt researcher that supposedly commented on China GDP said he thought we get 9% GDP growth for FULL YEAR 2012 and that he only expected Q1 to be 8.4-8.5% which is in line with expectations.

Nevertheless, all this talk has helped the Dow notch a triple-digit gain this morning.

[source]

12-Apr (BIS) — The Basel Committee published today the results of its Basel III monitoring exercise. The study is based on rigorous reporting processes set up by the Committee to periodically review the implications of the Basel III standards for financial markets. A total of 212 banks participated in the study, including 103 Group 1 banks (ie those that have Tier 1 capital in excess of €3 billion and are internationally active) and 109 Group 2 banks (ie all other banks).

…The aggregate shortfall of required stable funding is €2.78 trillion.

[source]

PG View: That’s one heck of a shortfall.

12-Apr (USAGOLD) — Gold is up sharply again today, bolstered by rising QE3 expectations and whispers that China’s Q1 GDP may come in higher than expectations on Friday. Today’s higher than expected initial jobless claims print seems to have been the straw that broke the will of the QE3 doubters that emerged in the wake of last week’s release of the March FOMC minutes. All of the losses in gold related to diminished QE3 expectations from last Tuesday have now been reversed out of the market.

Fed Vice-Chair Yellen set the stage in a speech on Wednesday, hinting that the central bank might have to continue it’s über-accommodative policy stance beyond the end of 2014 due to sluggish growth. Yellen went on to say, “I anticipate that the U.S. economy will continue to recover only gradually and that labor market slack will remain substantial for a number of years to come.”

The growing acceptance that Europe is probably already back in recession lends itself to a growing acceptance that ZIRP and other forms of central bank accommodations are likely here to stay for an indeterminate period of time. Be assured that a European recession would be an additional drag on the US economy, providing little incentive for tightening here. In fact, it could well prove to be the catalyst for additional easing in the form of QE3.

Of course recent market gyrations could be the result of a well orchestrated management of short-term expectations: Stocks fall, increasing the likelihood of QE3 in the minds of investors. This in turn prompts stocks to rise, lessening the likelihood of Q3. Lather, rinse, repeat. In the collective mind of the Fed, having stocks confined to a broad range certainly beats the heck out of a new bear market. They seek to buy time until real economic growth can become self-sustaining. But how can that possibly happen if markets are prevented from clearing and finding their true value? Ask the Japanese about that…

The ones who really pay for this arguably misguided policy stance are savers, as ZIRP nets them a negative yield in real terms. The wealth of those saving in dollars, euros, pounds and yen is being consistently eroded by yields that are below the rates of inflation. Savvy savers hedge that reality, by keeping a portion of their savings in gold.

• US initial jobless claims +13k to 380k for week ended 07-Apr, above expectations of 355k, vs upward revised 367k in previous week.
• US trade deficit narrowed to -$46.0 bln in Feb, inside expectations of -$52.0 bln, vs -$52.5 bln in Jan.
• US PPI unch in Mar, below expectations of +0.3%, vs +0.4% in Feb; 2.8% y/y, vs 3.3% y/y in Feb. Core +0.3% on expectations of +0.2%.
• France CPI +0.8% m/m in Mar, vs 0.4% in Feb; 2.3% y/y, above expectations of 2.2%.
• Sweden CPI +0.3% m/m in Mar, on expectations of +0.2%, vs +0.7% in Feb; 1.5% y/y.
• Eurozone industrial production (sa) +0.5% m/m in Feb, above expectations of -0.2%, vs negative revised unch in Jan; -1.8% y/y, below expectations.
• Greek unemployment rate rises to record 21.8%.
• Australia unemployment rate steady in Mar at 5.2%.
• South Korea M2 +5.3% y/y in Feb, vs negative revised +4.8% in Jan.
• Bank of Indonesia holds steady on rates at 5.75%.
• India iIndustrial production +4.1% y/y in Feb, vs big negative revision to 1.14% y/y in Jan, from 6.8% pace originally.
• Thailand FX Reserves (USD) $178.0 bln in Mar, vs $180.0 bln in Feb.
• China M2 +13.4% y/y in Mar, vs +13.0% y/y in Feb.
• China Loan Growth +15.7% y/y in Mar, vs +15.2% y/y in Feb.

12-Apr (Reuters) — Greece’s jobless rate rose to a record of 21.8 percent in January, twice as high as the euro zone average, statistics service ELSTAT said on Thursday, as the debt crisis and austerity measures took their toll on the labor market.

Youth unemployment remained at levels where more are jobless than in work.

[source]

12-Apr (The Wall Street Journal) — Industrial production in the euro zone slumped in February by the largest amount in more than two years, Eurostat reported Thursday, adding to evidence that the common-currency bloc is in an economic recession.

Other data released Thursday, including Greek unemployment, added to the bleak outlook for the region.

…Industrial production accounts for almost a fifth of the euro-zone economy, which analysts say may already be in a technical recession, or two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, after shrinking 0.3% in the final three months of 2011.

[source]

12-Apr (MarketWatch) — Gold’s rebound puzzles the bugs — but they’ll take it anyway.

…In fact, the important gold-positive news I noted — that the strike by the jewelers in India, the world’s biggest gold importer, appeared to be ending — turned out to be wrong. The strike went on for another week. But it did finally end this past Saturday, after an extraordinary 21 days.

…Since India is in effect the default buyer on a gold downswing, this means critical underpinning is back in place.

…“The massive gold purchases may signal the People’s Bank of China is continuing to secretly accumulate gold reserves.”

HSBC contributed an interesting point:

“China is also the world’s largest gold producer. This is the first time in history, to our knowledge, that the world’s largest gold producer is also a major importer. This implies strong underlying demand, which we believe will help cushion further losses.”

[source]

12-Apr (Project Syndicate) — Last December, with Europe’s financial system on the brink of disaster, the European Central Bank stunned the markets with an unprecedented intervention, offering banks across the eurozone essentially unlimited liquidity against any and all collateral for an exceptional period of three years.

The ECB’s surprise liquidity operation put the continent’s crisis on hold. But now, just fourth months later, matters are again coming to a head. The big southern European countries, Spain and Italy, battered by austerity, are spiraling into recession. The deterioration of economic conditions is casting doubt on their governments’ budgetary arithmetic, undermining political support for structural reform, and reopening seemingly closed questions about the stability of banking systems.

Once again, the eurozone appears to be on the verge of unraveling. So, will it be once more into the breach for the ECB?

…With governments hesitating to do their part, the ECB is reluctant to support them. In its view, rewarding them with monetary stimulus – keeping the boat afloat with more spending – only relieves the pressure on national officials to do what is necessary.

If this is the ECB’s thinking, then it is playing a dangerous game. Without spending and growth, there can be no solution to Europe’s problems.

[source]