YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]: Today's session began on a positive note as
upbeat European trade contributed to the bullish sentiment. However, the
strength was temporary and the S&P 500 turned lower once the November ISM
Index of 49.5 missed expectations. After sliding to its lows shortly after
midday, the S&P 500 remained in the red and settled lower by 0.5%.
The materials sector was the biggest laggard as chemical producers saw broad
weakness. In addition, utility and industrial stocks underperformed as well.
The telecom space was the only advancer as defensive trade took hold.
Looking back at November, equities ended the month largely unchanged despite a
mid-month stumble. The S&P 500 lost over 4.0% during the first half of the
month, and managed a swift recovery. Headline-driven trade proved to be alive
and well as the market hung on every word out of Washington regarding the
ongoing budget talks.
In addition, European uncertainty remained palpable as Eurozone and
International Monetary Fund officials spent longer than expected ironing out
the details of the next tranche of Greek aid. The repeated attempts at
implementing reforms have proven futile, and the sovereign's financial health
has shown no signs of improvement. Due to this, officials, as well as the
markets, are growing more skeptical regarding the country's ability at
fulfilling further obligations. Elsewhere, Spanish region of Catalonia held an
election, and the vote favored parties which support holding a referendum on
secession.
Domestically, the attention turned to the budget debate after Barack Obama was
reelected to second term as president.
Markets Unimpressed by Election Results
The major averages entered the November 7 election on an upbeat note. On
Election Day, the S&P 500 advanced almost 1%, and the benchmark index ended
the day just 3% below its 2012 high of 1474.51. That evening, equity futures
saw a positive initial reaction to Mr. Obama's victory. However, sentiment
turned as the morning approached and European markets began reacting to the
results. The loss of optimism was attributed to questions whether a Democratic
president and a split Congress can strike a budget deal to avoid going over the
fiscal cliff. After President Obama was declared victor, the S&P 500 opened
lower by 1%. Broad-based weakness persisted throughout the day and pressured
the index to a loss of 2.4%.
The next six sessions saw continued softness and the S&P 500 lost an
additional 3%. This was also notable from the technical standpoint because the
slide brought the index below its 200-day moving average. As the markets
continued heading south, Congressional leaders, as well as the President, held
numerous press conferences aimed at reassuring the public regarding their
determination to reach consensus. Despite the reassurances, the two sides
maintained a familiar tone. President Obama insisted on increasing
revenuemainly through tax hikes for top earners while House Speaker Boehner was
more focused on spending cuts.
Apple Halts its Slide
On September 21, Apple (AAPL) marked its all-time high at $705.07. However, the
following month saw the stock slide over 15% as shares approached bear market
territory. The softness was notable as the S&P 500 shed only 2.2% during
the same period. As such, early November weakness weighed on the largest tech
component and caused it to underperform the market once again. The
post-election sell-off resulted in Apple dipping another 9% before a mid-month
reversal helped the stock recover its first-half losses entirely.
Utilities Suffer
Before Hurricane Sandy made landfall in New Jersey on October 29, utility
stocks were enjoying a solid six-month run. However, the storm caused
considerable damage to infrastructure and weighed on electrical utilities. In
addition, industry standards came into question after some areas remained
without power for weeks. To investigate the matter, New York Governor Andrew
Cuomo appointed a special panel tasked with evaluating electric utilities'
preparedness for extreme events. With the sector under scrutiny, investors
considered the possibility of tighter regulation and increased costs for
electric companies. As a result, the SPDR Utilities Select Sector ETF (XLF)
lost nearly 5% during the month. Some commentators suggested the anticipation
of a dividend tax hike at the end of the year is also responsible for the
weakness. However, it should be noted that the high-yielding telecom sector was
largely unchanged on the month.
Coal Burns Out
During the first presidential debate, Republican challenger Mitt Romney said he
"likes coal." The remarks prompted a surge in coal stocks, and fueled
the Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL) to a 10% gain going into the election.
President Obama's victory ensured that the administration will continue to
favor cleaner energy, and coal stocks responded by retreating. Since November
7, KOL fell nearly 9% while individual names like Alpha Natural Resources (ANR,
-25%), James River Coal (JRCC, -25%), and Peabody Energy (BTU -14%) saw
significant losses.
Thanksgiving Rally Led by Turkeys of the Year
The Thanksgiving week saw a thin-volume rally, which halted the post-election
slide. Interestingly, some of the top performers during that stretch were
stocks that had suffered heavy losses during earlier months. Green Mountain
Coffee Roasters (GMCR, +46%), Groupon (GRPN, +52%), Nokia (NOK, +20%), and
Research In Motion (RIMM, +26%)were among the names which underperformed going
into the month, but saw outsized gains in the 30 days since.
Post-election Winners Flying Under the Radar
In addition to influencing near-term sentiment, the November election also
created ripples in some thinly-traded corners of the market. Gun makers shot up
following President Obama's reelection. On November 8, the S&P 500 lost
over 2% but Smith & Wesson (SWHC) and Sturm, Ruger & Co (RGR) surged 7%
and 10%, respectively. The two stocks continued their run and ended the month
with respective gains of 13% and 33%. The post-election surge was sparked by
concerns over tighter gun regulation during the President's second term. The
concern was confirmed on Black Friday when 154,873 FBI background check
requests for gun sales topped last year's one-day record by 20%. Gunsmiths
enjoyed a tremendous run on the back of same regulatory concerns when President
Obama was first elected. Since 2009, quarterly results of the two companies
have frequently shown notable increases in order backlog as they struggled to
keep up with the demand. The industry strength is confirmed in stock price as
Smith & Wesson trades 370% above its value four years ago while Sturm &
Ruger has added an eye-popping 900%.
Looking to December: Budget Showdown Front and Center
Crude oil climbed to a session high of $90.33 per barrel in morning
pit action but lost momentum despite a weaker dollar index. It tumbled into
negative territory and brushed a session low of $88.75 per barrel. The energy
component managed to inch slightly higher as it headed into the close and
settled with a 0.1% gain at $89.05 per barrel.
Natural gas chopped around in positive territory, popping as high as $3.65 per
MMBtu in late morning action. It dipped to a session low of $3.59 per MMBtu,
but buyers stepped in and pushed prices back up such that natural gas settled
1.7% higher at $3.62 per MMBtu.
Precious metals traded in positive territory during today's pit trade as the
weaker dollar index and U.S. economic data supported their advance. Both gold
and silver popped to their respective session highs of $1724.90 per ounce and
$33.93 per ounce on latest ISM Index data that showed the manufacturing sector
contracting in November. Gains held steady for the remainder of the session
with gold eventually settling 0.5% higher at $1721.10 per ounce and silver
settling 1.3% higher at $33.74 per ounce
In December, markets will remain focused on the budget debate as the cliff
nears. It is also likely that frequent press conferences aimed at calming the
markets will continue. However, until a deal is reached, short-term volatility
is likely to persist as investors continue showing heightened sensitivity to
headlines and news reports.DJ30 -59.98 NASDAQ -8.04 SP500 -6.72 NASDAQ
Adv/Vol/Dec 1111/1.61 bln/1372 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1176/654.2 mln/1816