Week Ended April
12, 2013
Stocks reach new
highs on global economic hopes
The major indexes
recorded new highs throughout much of the week, as evidence suggested the U.S.
and other major economies were continuing to grow. First-quarter earnings
reporting season also got under way. Analysts have lowered earnings
expectations considerably, although some hope that might leave room for more
positive surprises as the season unwinds over the coming few weeks.
Fewer jobless
claims boost sentiment
Markets moved higher
through Thursday, as some positive signals suggested that the recovery remained
on track and helped assuage concerns over the previous week's disappointing
monthly jobs report. Investors were particularly encouraged to see a sharp drop
in weekly jobless claims, which had been creeping upward over the
past month.
China and Japan
offer hopeful signals
Growth signals
from the world's second- and third-largest economies were also positive. China
reported a strong rise in imports, while hopes continued to grow that economic
stimulus programs in Japan would push the economy out of its doldrums.
T. Rowe Price's Tokyo-based analysts believe the new government in
Japan has achieved a real turnaround for the country, and the Japanese market
offers real long-term opportunities if the changes continue.
Retail sales
growth disappoints and sends stocks lower to end the week
Stocks ended the
week on a down note, however, as new economic data called the strength of the
recovery into question once again. The Commerce Department reported that retail
sales declined by 0.4% in March while lowering its growth estimates for
previous months. A measure of consumer sentiment also reached its lowest level
since last summer. Economists have been nervously watching spending patterns to
gauge the impact of federal tax increases and spending cuts.
Earnings season
begins with mixed signals
Investors also
appeared to react negatively to major bank earnings released on Friday. While
two major banks reported strong profits, investors were disappointed by revenue
growth and loan volumes. T. Rowe Price's financial analysts note that
the sector should continue to benefit from an improving U.S. economic environment
and additional firming in the housing market. However, the low interest rate
environment hinders banks' ability to earn money on the loans they make.
U.S. Stocks1 |
|||
Index2 |
Friday's Close |
Week's Change |
% Change |
DJIA |
14856.06 |
291.04 |
13.37% |
S&P
500 |
1588.85 |
35.58 |
11.41% |
NASDAQ
Composite |
3294.95 |
91.09 |
9.12% |
S&P
MidCap 400 |
1148.61 |
24.53 |
12.56% |
Russell
2000 |
942.41 |
19.47 |
10.96% |
This
chart is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent the performance
of any specific security. Past performance cannot guarantee future results.
1Source of data Reuters, obtained through Yahoo! Finance Closing
data as of 4 p.m. ET.
2The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor's 500
Stock Index of blue chip stocks, the Standard & Poor's MidCap 400 Index,
and the Russell 2000 Index are unmanaged indexes representing various segments
by market capitalization of the U.S. equity markets. The Nasdaq Composite is an
unmanaged index representing the companies traded on the Nasdaq stock market
and the National Market System.
Week Ended April
12, 2013 U.S. Treasuries
and municipals soften, but investment-grade securities hold steady Demand for U.S.
Treasuries weakened, driving long-term yields slightly higher. The Federal
Reserve's minutes from its March meeting revealed disagreement among Board
members about how soon the central bank should wind down its bond-purchasing
program. Most committee members, however, expected asset purchases to continue
at least until year-end. Treasuries recaptured some lost ground on Friday in the
wake of weak economic data (see below). The municipal market fell modestly,
starting off well as investors put cash to work after March's underperformance,
but falling Treasuries pulled munis lower by the end of the week. Commercial
mortgage-backed securities held up better than other investment-grade sectors,
as improved valuations attracted buyers. Investment-grade corporate bonds
enjoyed a good week, with investor interest remaining firm, particularly for
shorter-maturity bonds. New bond issuance was steady. Investors return
to emerging markets debt, but China raises concerns Emerging markets
debt traded up during the week, with investor risk appetite improving despite
last Friday's poor U.S. payroll report. Bond issuance increased, as new deals
by several notable countries came to market with offerings that were generally
well received. One exception was China. On Tuesday, rating agency Fitch lowered
China's long-term local currency debt rating from AA- to A+ because of concerns
about mounting local government obligations. Weak U.S. retail
sales suggest soft consumer demand Several key
economic signals pointed south during the week. Retail sales fell 0.4% in
March, indicating flagging consumer demand, which accounts for about two-thirds
of U.S. economic activity. A separate report showed that consumer sentiment
declined to a nine-month low in early April, reflecting a clouded outlook for
continued economic growth after last week's disappointing jobs number.
Underscoring the concerns about softening growth, March producer prices
registered their steepest decline since May 2012, dropping 0.6% mostly due to
tumbling prices for gas at the pump. Excluding volatile energy and food costs,
core producer prices rose only 1.7% during the 12 months ended March 31. The relatively
benign inflation data, combined with persistently high unemployment, suggest
that the Fed is likely to pursue its low interest rate policy for a while
to come. U.S. Treasury Yields1 Maturity April 12, 2013 April 5, 2013 2-Year 0.23% 0.23% 10-Year 1.72% 1.71% 30-Year 2.92% 2.88% This table is for
illustrative purposes only. Past performance cannot guarantee future
results. 1Source of data: Bloomberg.com,
as of 4 p.m. ET Friday, April 12, 2013. ___________ Week Ended April
5, 2013 International
Stocks Foreign stock markets closed lower for the week ending April 05,
2013 with the broad international measure, the MSCI EAFE Index (Europe,
Australasia, and Far East), losing -0.77%. Region/Country Week's Return % Change Year-to-Date EAFE -0.77% 4.43% Europe ex-U.K. -0.48% 2.52% Denmark 0.01% 4.36% France -0.44% 0.17% Germany -0.38% -0.11% Italy 1.05% -8.82% Netherlands -0.43% 1.99% Spain 0.09% -5.26% Sweden -1.43% 8.22% Switzerland -0.79% 10.80% United Kingdom -1.38% 1.07% Japan -0.09% 11.61% AC Far East ex-Japan -2.54% -2.74% Hong
Kong -2.11% 1.31% Korea -5.73% -8.76% Malaysia 2.68% 1.76% Singapore -0.16% 2.85% Taiwan 0.44% 0.23% Thailand -3.22% 6.57% EM Latin America -1.50% -0.60% Brazil -1.17% -1.93% Mexico -1.48% 4.51% Argentina -1.32% 1.37% EM (Emerging Markets) -2.54% -4.07% Hungary 3.40% -3.46% India -2.84% -5.32% Israel 0.32% 7.45% Russia -3.30% -6.37% Turkey -3.51% 4.36% International
Bond Markets International bond markets in developed countries were higher
this week, with the J.P. Morgan Global Government Bond Less U.S. Index gaining
0.43%. Region/Country Week's Return % Change Year-to-Date Developed Markets 0.43 -3.76 Europe Denmark 2.05 -0.99 France 2.96 0.06 8Germany 1.95 -0.38 Italy 3.11 0.46 Spain 3.16 3.26 Sweden 1.80 0.98 United
Kingdom 2.66 -3.42 Japan -2.26 -7.86 Emerging Markets 2.40 -0.98 Argentina 4.44 -14.27 Brazil 2.47 -1.96 Bulgaria 0.14 0.43 Russia 1.79 -1.33 International
Currency Markets On the currency front, the U.S. dollar was stronger against the
major currencies for the week. Currency Close Week's Return % Change Japanese
yen 97.170 3.24% 11.02% Euro 1.30221 -1.41% 1.23% British
pound 1.53521 -1.10% 5.56% 1U.S. dollars per national
currency unit. Sources: Foreign stock markets and currency sections are from
Rimes Technologies, using MSCI data. International bond markets are from J.P. Morgan. Note: All returns are in U.S. dollars. All bond indices are J.P.
Morgan. All stock indices are Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI). Equity Indices EAFE: MSCI
Europe, Australasia, and Far East Index Europe
Ex-U.K.: MSCI
Europe ex-U.K. Index Far
East Ex-Japan: MSCI
AC Far East ex-Japan Index Latin
America: MSCI
Emerging Markets Latin America Index Emerging
Markets: MSCI
Emerging Markets Index
Bond Indices Developed
Markets: J.P.
Morgan Global Government Bond Less U.S. Index Emerging
Markets: J.P.
Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus
(April 5, 2013)
(U.S. $)
Year-to-Date (U.S. $)
All charts are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the
performance of any specific security. Past performance cannot guarantee
future results.