Week Ended March
28, 2013
S&P 500 ends
at a fresh record high; erases losses from 2008 crisis { This statement is
ridiculous and an embarrassment for T. Rowe Price in light of the QE dollar
debasement market frothing follies that’s left the nominal closes far less in
real terms, especially when adjusted for real inflation! }
U.S. stocks rose
during a holiday-shortened week, lifted by surprisingly strong economic data
and relief after banks in Cyprus reopened without incident following a two-week
closure. On Thursday, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index surpassed its record
closing high set in October 2007 after flirting with the milestone for the past
two weeks. The S&P 500's fresh record close means that the U.S. stock
market benchmark has recouped all of its losses from the 2008 financial crisis.
The Dow Jones industrials exceeded its 2007 all-time high on March 5.
Economic data
confirms recovery; Cypriot banks reopen without drama
The week's
economic data largely beat forecasts, providing more evidence that the U.S.
recovery is gaining traction. On Thursday, revised Commerce Department figures
showed that gross domestic product in last year's final quarter rose at a 0.4%
annual pace, better than a 0.1% prior estimate, driven by corporate spending on
buildings and a smaller trade gap. Earlier reports this week showed that U.S.
durable goods orders rose more than expected in February and home prices
increased in January by the most since 2006.
Overseas, banks in
troubled eurozone member Cyprus opened Thursday for the first time since the
government froze bank accounts on March 16 as it negotiated with European
lenders about securing a financial bailout. Many investors had feared a
panic-filled run on Cypriot banks when they reopened, but there were no reports
of trouble despite the implementation of capital controls.
Fed expected to
taper bond purchases this year
Good corporate
earnings growth and the Federal Reserve's ongoing efforts to spur the economy
through its $85 billion per month bond-buying program have underpinned the
stock rally. With more data showing the U.S. economy getting stronger,
speculation is growing over how and when the Fed will end its unprecedented
monetary stimulus. Despite the onset of higher taxes and the federal sequester,
economists at T. Rowe Price expect that a stronger private sector
will limit the impact of tighter fiscal policies and keep forward momentum in
the economy intact. We expect the Fed will begin to reduce the pace of its
monthly bond purchases early in the second half of 2013.
The U.S. stock
market is closed on March 29, 2013, for Good Friday.
U.S. Stocks1 |
|||
Index2 |
Friday's Close |
Week's Change |
% Change |
DJIA |
14578.54 |
66.51 |
11.25% |
S&P
500 |
1569.19 |
12.30 |
10.03% |
NASDAQ
Composite |
3267.52 |
22.52 |
8.21% |
S&P
MidCap 400 |
1154.66 |
16.75 |
13.15% |
Russell
2000 |
953.23 |
7.88 |
12.23% |
This
chart is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent the performance
of any specific security. Past performance cannot guarantee future results.
1Source of data Reuters, obtained through Yahoo! Finance Closing
data as of 4 p.m. ET.
2The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor's 500
Stock Index of blue chip stocks, the Standard & Poor's MidCap 400 Index,
and the Russell 2000 Index are unmanaged indexes representing various segments
by market capitalization of the U.S. equity markets. The Nasdaq Composite is an
unmanaged index representing the companies traded on the Nasdaq stock market and
the National Market System.
Week Ended March
28, 2013 U.S. Treasuries
strengthen in face of eurozone problems; other U.S. sectors mixed U.S. Treasury
yields declined as concerns about Europe drove investors into safer assets.
Ongoing bailout issues regarding Cyprus, combined with political upheaval in
Italy, tempered investor's appetites for risk. The municipal market was quiet
with light new issuance. March tends to be a challenging month for seasonal
reasons, as investor activity tends to wane toward the end of the first
quarter. April could see increased issuance and demand as seasonal pressures
abate. Investment-grade corporate bonds were mixed. While investor demand for
new bond issues was steady, global volatility weighed on the market to some
extent. High yield bonds remained largely immune to the overseas turmoil, as
investors flocked to this asset class because of its yield advantage over other
fixed income sectors. Emerging markets
bonds benefit from ratings upgrades Market activity
was fairly subdued in emerging markets, except for continuing legal concerns
weighing on Argentina. However, there were several notable credit rating
updates. Fitch gave the Philippines its first investment-grade rating, in part
because of the country's falling debt levels and improving investment climate.
Turkey also received a rating upgrade, with S&P raising the country's
sovereign debt to BB+, one notch below investment-grade. Turkey's fiscal
foundation has been strengthening, and the country's economy has also been improving.
Fitch rates Turkey's sovereign bonds investment grade. Sluggish
fourth-quarter growth balanced by housing strength in last three months The U.S. economy
expanded at a sluggish annualized pace of 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2012,
according to the last reading from the Commerce Department. It was the slowest
growth rate since the first quarter of 2011 and far below what is needed to
lower the unemployment rate. However, several factors that restrained results—including a slowdown in inventory accumulation and a steep
decline in military spending—are expected to abate in the
first quarter of this year. In addition, consumer spending, which accounts for
roughly 70% of U.S. economic growth, has picked up, and the housing market has
grown progressively stronger. Home prices rose 8.1% in January from a year
earlier, according to the S&P Case-Shiller Index, which measures prices
across 20 of the largest markets in the country. It was the biggest
year-over-year gain in housing prices since June 2006, with all 20 markets advancing. U.S. Treasury Yields1 Maturity March 28, 2013 March 22, 2013 2-Year 0.24% 0.25% 10-Year 1.85% 1.91% 30-Year 3.10% 3.13% This table is for
illustrative purposes only. Past performance cannot guarantee future
results. 1Source of data: Bloomberg.com,
as of 4 p.m. ET Thursday, March 28, 2013. ___________ Week Ended March
22, 2013 International
Stocks Foreign stock markets closed lower for the week ending March 22,
2013 with the broad international measure, the MSCI EAFE Index (Europe,
Australasia, and Far East), losing -1.47%. Region/Country Week's Return % Change Year-to-Date EAFE -1.47% 5.80% Europe ex-U.K. -2.02% 4.98% Denmark -3.51% 5.70% France -2.12% 2.88% Germany -2.03% 2.83% Italy -0.84% -4.22% Netherlands -0.96% 4.00% Spain -4.17% 1.34% Sweden -2.68% 9.30% Switzerland -1.76% 11.39% United Kingdom -0.62% 2.54% Japan -0.79% 10.63% AC Far East ex-Japan -1.87% -2.31% Hong
Kong -0.92% 1.99% Korea -2.67% -6.71% Malaysia 0.30% -4.03% Singapore -0.78% 0.76% Taiwan -2.45% -1.77% Thailand -6.12% 4.82% EM Latin America -2.33% -1.24% Brazil -4.12% -2.68% Mexico 0.66% 2.20% Argentina -1.73% 8.56% EM (Emerging Markets) -2.51% -3.44% Hungary -3.67% -5.09% India -4.38% -3.42% Israel -1.29% 8.32% Russia -4.09% -2.59% Turkey -1.41% 3.29% International
Bond Markets International bond markets in developed countries were higher
this week, with the J.P. Morgan Global Government Bond Less U.S. Index gaining
0.72%. Region/Country Week's Return % Change Year-to-Date Developed Markets 0.72 -4.01 Europe Denmark 0.20 -2.36 France -0.07 -1.58 8Germany 0.03 -1.51 Italy 0.08 -0.52 Spain -0.35 2.21 Sweden -0.44 -0.96 United
Kingdom 1.75 -6.19 Japan 1.26 -6.49 Emerging Markets -0.35 -3.32 Argentina -1.43 -13.74 Brazil -0.47 -5.08 Bulgaria 0.10 0.34 Russia -0.35 -2.89 International
Currency Markets On the currency front, the U.S. dollar was weaker against the
major currencies for the week. Currency Close Week's Return % Change Japanese
yen 94.490 -0.65% 8.49% Euro 1.29971 0.53% 1.42% British
pound 1.52391 -0.71% 6.25% 1U.S. dollars per national
currency unit. Sources: Foreign stock markets and currency sections are from
Rimes Technologies, using MSCI data. International bond markets are from J.P.
Morgan. Note: All returns are in U.S. dollars. All bond indices are J.P.
Morgan. All stock indices are Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI). Equity Indices EAFE: MSCI
Europe, Australasia, and Far East Index Europe
Ex-U.K.: MSCI
Europe ex-U.K. Index Far
East Ex-Japan: MSCI
AC Far East ex-Japan Index Latin
America: MSCI
Emerging Markets Latin America Index Emerging
Markets: MSCI
Emerging Markets Index
Bond Indices Developed
Markets: J.P.
Morgan Global Government Bond Less U.S. Index Emerging
Markets: J.P.
Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus
(March 22, 2013)
(U.S. $)
Year-to-Date (U.S. $)
All charts are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the
performance of any specific security. Past performance cannot guarantee
future results.