Week Ended March
22, 2013
Another (albeit
smaller) shock from Europe sends stocks lower
Another debt
crisis in Europe sent stocks lower for the week, but the relatively small size
of Cyprus, the economy at the center of this storm, helped limit the damage.
The Dow briefly pierced the all-time high it had established the previous week,
while the S&P 500 remained just short of record territory.
Cyprus's
"bail in" plan worries investors
Stocks fell
sharply to start the week after Cyprus announced that all its banks had closed
and that it was considering a plan to tax bank deposits in order to receive
emergency funds from the European Central Bank, IMF, and European Commission.
While the problems in Cyprus's banking system were not unknown, investors were
discouraged by the unpopular plan to "bail in" bank depositors, which
some worried would provoke further capital flight once banks reopened. In any
event, Cypriot officials backed away from the plan in response to domestic
protests as well as resentment from Russian depositors, which left European
policymakers scrambling to design another rescue package.
Fed remarks boost
sentiment at midweek
Stocks recovered
some of their losses at midweek. Investors seemed to be encouraged by the
Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the central bank's ultra-accommodative
monetary stance despite recent gains in the housing and labor markets.
Investors were also glad to hear Fed Chairman Bernanke state his opinion that
recent stock market gains did not exhibit characteristics of a market bubble,
saying that "we don't see anything that's out of line with historical patterns."
Corporate balance
sheets also support valuations
T. Rowe Price
managers believe that equity valuations appear reasonable in relation to fixed
income and cash alternatives. They also note that exceptionally strong
corporate balance sheets also provide support to stock prices. In his press
conference following the Fed's policy meeting Wednesday, Fed Chairman Bernanke
echoed that view, noting the very high level of national income going to
corporate profits.
U.S. Stocks1 |
|||
Index2 |
Friday's Close |
Week's Change |
% Change |
DJIA |
14512.03 |
-2.08 |
10.74% |
S&P
500 |
1556.89 |
-3.83 |
9.16% |
NASDAQ
Composite |
3245.00 |
-4.07 |
7.47% |
S&P
MidCap 400 |
1137.91 |
-3.98 |
11.51% |
Russell
2000 |
945.35 |
-6.98 |
11.30% |
This
chart is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent the performance
of any specific security. Past performance cannot guarantee future results.
1Source of data Reuters, obtained through Yahoo! Finance Closing
data as of 4 p.m. ET.
2The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor's 500
Stock Index of blue chip stocks, the Standard & Poor's MidCap 400 Index,
and the Russell 2000 Index are unmanaged indexes representing various segments
by market capitalization of the U.S. equity markets. The Nasdaq Composite is an
unmanaged index representing the companies traded on the Nasdaq stock market
and the National Market System.
Week Ended March
22, 2013 U.S. bonds mixed
in response to developments in Cyprus Long-term Treasury
yields ended slightly lower, largely driven by developments in Cyprus, which
threatened to tax bank deposits to comply with terms for a bailout deal with the
European Union (EU). The municipal market was generally flat, first
strengthening following the Cyprus crisis, then settling back when investor
demand was weak in the face of relatively large new issuance. Trading in the
municipal market fell to its lowest level since 2005, according to Bloomberg
News. The investment-grade corporate market held up well through the week,
despite the flight to the safer haven of Treasuries. Demand for high yield
corporate bonds remained strong, particularly for medium-term securities, as
investors searched for income. Emerging markets
bonds weaken, while eurozone bonds zigzag The situation in
Cyprus, as well as political unrest in Venezuela, had a negative impact on
emerging markets bonds. Prices fell as global investors focused on the
prolonged bailout negotiations in Cyprus. In Venezuela, two recent polls showed
acting President Nicolas Maduro with a double-digit lead over the opposition
candidate. Spanish and Italian bonds advanced later in the week, when it
appeared as though Cyprus would move closer to an agreeable deal with the EU.
Both countries' sovereign debt had declined in value over fears that a
financial collapse in Cyprus could spill over to peripheral European nations.
The opposite was true in Germany and Austria, where Cyprus triggered a flight
to the safety of more stable sovereign debt. Yields on core European bonds rose
later in the week, when the crisis seemed closer to a resolution. Federal Reserve
stays the course The Federal Open
Market Committee (FOMC) ended a two-day meeting with no change in monetary
policy, although it did alter its assessment of the economy. The FOMC stated
that "labor market conditions have shown signs of improvement in recent
months," which was slightly more upbeat than its statement a month
earlier. The Fed said it would maintain its low interest rate policy until the
unemployment rate falls below 6.5% and annual inflation remains below 2.5%. The
central bank will also continue to buy $85 billion worth of Treasury and
mortgage securities every month but will trim the pace of its purchases
incrementally in response to progress on the labor front. "In determining
the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases," the FOMC
statement said, "the Committee will continue to take appropriate account
of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases, as well as the extent of
progress toward its economic objectives." T Rowe Price economists believe
that the Fed could begin to reduce the pace of its purchases early in the
second half of this year. U.S. Treasury Yields1 Maturity March 22, 2013 March 15, 2013 2-Year 0.25% 0.25% 10-Year 1.91% 1.99% 30-Year 3.13% 3.22% This table is for
illustrative purposes only. Past performance cannot guarantee future
results. 1Source of data: Bloomberg.com,
as of 4 p.m. ET Friday, March 22, 2013. ___________ Week Ended March
15, 2013 International
Stocks Foreign stock markets closed higher for the week ending March
15, 2013 with the broad international measure, the MSCI EAFE Index (Europe,
Australasia, and Far East), gaining 1.87%. Region/Country Week's Return % Change Year-to-Date EAFE 1.87% 7.38% Europe ex-U.K. 1.24% 7.15% Denmark 0.97% 9.55% France 0.76% 5.11% Germany 1.24% 4.96% Italy -0.04% -3.40% Netherlands 0.92% 5.00% Spain 0.70% 5.75% Sweden 0.68% 12.32% Switzerland 3.01% 13.39% United Kingdom 1.58% 3.19% Japan 4.33% 11.51% AC Far East ex-Japan -2.42% -0.46% Hong
Kong -2.30% 2.94% Korea -3.15% -4.15% Malaysia -1.82% -4.32% Singapore 0.46% 1.55% Taiwan -1.39% 0.70% Thailand 2.25% 11.65% EM Latin America -2.46% 1.12% Brazil -2.87% 1.50% Mexico -2.26% 1.53% Argentina 3.44% 10.48% EM (Emerging Markets) -2.19% -0.95% Hungary -5.83% -1.47% India -0.73% 1.00% Israel 2.24% 9.73% Russia 1.27% 1.57% Turkey -0.50% 4.77% International
Bond Markets International bond markets in developed countries were higher
this week, with the J.P. Morgan Global Government Bond Less U.S. Index gaining
1.15%. Region/Country Week's Return % Change Year-to-Date Developed Markets 1.15 -4.70 Europe Denmark 1.00 -2.56 France 0.93 -1.51 Germany 1.06 -1.55 Italy 0.65 -0.61 Spain -0.09 2.56 Sweden 0.63 -0.53 United
Kingdom 2.16 -7.80 Japan 1.31 -7.66 Emerging Markets -0.20 -2.98 Argentina -1.63 -12.49 Brazil -0.43 -4.64 Bulgaria 0.01 0.24 Russia 0.30 -2.55 International
Currency Markets On the currency front, the U.S. dollar was weaker against the
major currencies for the week. Currency Close Week's Return % Change Japanese
yen 95.100 -1.14% 9.08% Euro 1.30661 -0.65% 0.90% British
pound 1.51311 -1.36% 6.91% 1U.S. dollars per national
currency unit. Sources: Foreign stock markets and currency sections are from
Rimes Technologies, using MSCI data. International bond markets are from J.P.
Morgan. Note: All returns are in U.S. dollars. All bond indices are J.P.
Morgan. All stock indices are Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI). Equity Indices EAFE: MSCI
Europe, Australasia, and Far East Index Europe
Ex-U.K.: MSCI
Europe ex-U.K. Index Far
East Ex-Japan: MSCI
AC Far East ex-Japan Index Latin
America: MSCI
Emerging Markets Latin America Index Emerging
Markets: MSCI
Emerging Markets Index
Bond Indices Developed
Markets: J.P.
Morgan Global Government Bond Less U.S. Index Emerging
Markets: J.P.
Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus
(March 15, 2013)
(U.S. $)
Year-to-Date (U.S. $)
All charts are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the
performance of any specific security. Past performance cannot guarantee
future results.