YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]:
The major averages saw little change during the last session of the month. The
S&P 500 shed 0.2%, while Nasdaq outperformed and ended flat.
Mixed trade unfolded amid economic data which was largely in-line with
expectations. Weekly initial claims were reported at 368,000 (Briefing.com
consensus 345,000), which supports the notion that the lower readings over the
prior two weeks were primarily the result of seasonal adjustment problems.
Today's number drives initial claims right back to the 350,000-400,000 range
where they have been bounded for most of the last year.
Elsewhere, the personal income report stood out as the December increase of
2.6% was well ahead of the 0.7% rise expected by the Briefing.com consensus.
However, the notable rise in personal income was due to a surge in personal
income on assets as investors chose to lock in a lower capital gains tax rate
ahead of the New Year.
The fourth quarter Employment Cost Index increased by 0.5%, in-line with the
Briefing.com consensus.
The day's final economic report saw the January Chicago PMI climb to 55.6. The
reading surprised to the upside as economists surveyed by Briefing.com had
generally expected the index to come in at 50.5.
In addition to economic data, investors received several notable earnings
reports. Ryder System (R 56.78, +2.52), MasterCard
(MA 518.40, +2.40), and Qualcomm (QCOM 66.02, +2.49) gained
between 0.5% and 4.6% after beating on earnings.
On the downside, ConocoPhillips (COP 58.00, -3.09), Dow
Chemical (DOW 32.20, -2.41), and UPS (UPS 79.29,
-1.94) fell short of expectations.
With January now in the books, we would like to recap the first month of 2013.
Month in Review: Equities Soar as Full Force of 'Fiscal Cliff' AvertedResponding
favorably to the Congressional compromise on tax rates, the S&P 500 jumped
2.8% in the first week of 2013 and rarely looked back. Despite some mixed
economic and earnings news along the way, the S&P 500 closed with a gain in
13 out of 21 sessions and ended January at 1498.27 its best level since
December 2007. The Dow Jones Industrial Average for its part surged 5.8% and
recorded its best January since 1989.
Economic Data Paints Bleak January Picture
- The bulk of economic data reported
during the month beat the Briefing.com consensus. However, data reported
for the month of January often came up short.
- Of the seven January reports, five
fell short of expectations.
- The Empire Manufacturing Index, NAHB
Housing Index, Philadelphia Fed Survey, Michigan Sentiment, and Consumer
Confidence reports all missed expectations.
- Meanwhile, the ADP Employment Change
and Chicago PMI surprised to the upside.
- The advance fourth quarter GDP reading
was a headline disappointment, as a 0.1% contraction was recorded for the
final quarter of 2012. However, the report was not as weak as it appeared.
- The biggest drag on quarterly growth
came in the form of a 6.6% decrease in government spending. This was
largely due to a 22.2% decline in defense spending which followed a 12.9%
increase during the third quarter.
- The change in private inventories also
subtracted 1.27 percentage points from the change in real GDP.
- Personal consumption expenditures,
which constitute more than 70% of GDP, rose 2.2%, which was the largest
increase since the first quarter of 2012.
- Business investment rose 12.4%, which
was the largest uptick since the third quarter of 2011.
Mixed
Earnings Unable to Derail Rally
- The second half of the month saw the
start of the fourth quarter earnings season.
- Most companies have beaten on the
bottom line per usual, hurdling estimates that had been lowered in many
cases by analysts ahead of the reports. Revenue growth is still weak, but
similar to earnings, most companies have exceeded depressed top line
growth estimates.
- Cautious guidance has been a common
theme as many companies see headwinds in the first half of the year,
although the default opinion is that the second half of the year should
look better.
Transports,
Energy, Health Care, and Discretionary Stocks Paced the Gains
- The Dow Jones Transportation Average
gained 9.4% as truckers and railroads joined the rally enjoyed by airlines
since mid-November.
- Energy stocks also displayed relative
strength and the SPDR Energy Select Sector ETF (XLE) advanced 8.3%. This
was largely supported by a 6.2% rise in the price of crude oil. The energy
component ended the month just a shade under $98.
- The Health Care sector has been a
standout, trailing behind only energy in the sector rankings on a
year-to-date basis (+7.4%).
- The discretionary sector has also been
among the top performers in the S&P 500.
- Homebuilders continued their strength
from 2012. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) ended January with a
gain of 8.3%. Many builders reported strong fourth quarter earnings,
replete with reports of strong backlogs and order trends.
Technology
Lagged as Apple Weighed
- The tech-heavy Nasdaq underperformed
the remaining major indices as Apple (AAPL), which is the single largest
index component, continued displaying weakness.
- Shares of Apple sold off through the
first half of the month before pausing near the $500 level.
- A disappointing January 23 earnings
report caused the stock to lose more than 10%. The company fell short of
revenue expectations and issued downside guidance.
- The largest tech stock ended the month
down 14.4%, at levels last seen in February 2002.
- Excluding Apple, the technology sector
fared relatively well. Semiconductors outperformed despite a rash of
disappointing earnings reports and outlooks. The PHLX Semiconductor Index
climbed 7.7%.
Defensive
Stocks Bid into Second Half
- During the second half of the month,
defensive-oriented sectors started to attract increased buying interest.
- Telecoms (+1.8%) and utilities (+4.5%)
registered the bulk of their gains during the second half of the month
after the broader market had already seen the majority of its rise.
- Health care stocks enjoyed strength
throughout the month as upbeat earnings supported the space.
Headwinds
Remain as S&P 500 Nears Uncharted Territory
- As the S&P 500 hovers just 4.3%
below its all-time high, challenges remain visible.
- A notable drop in consumer confidence
occurred as the initial impact of the payroll tax cut expiration was felt
by income earners.
- Sequester cuts are scheduled to go
into effect in March, with the brunt of the impact to be absorbed by the
defense sector.
- The debt ceiling issue has only been
deferred rather than fixed.
- Japan's bold bid to weaken its
currency and to inflate its economy is raising the risk of currency wars
as other countries aim to support their exporters.
- Geopolitical issues are simmering,
with conflicts in the Middle East starting to make headline waves (eg.
Egypt, Israel/Syria/Iran) and North Korea toying with nuclear tests.
- Rising interest rates threaten to slow
the housing recovery.
- Bullish sentiment, which is a
contrarian indicator, is picking up noticeably.
DJ30
-49.84 NASDAQ -0.18 SP500 -3.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1525/2.11 bln/946 NYSE
Adv/Vol/Dec 1557/933.2 mln/1421
3:30 pm :
- Mar crude oil spent its entire floor
session in negative territory as mixed economic data released this morning
that included weekly initial claims and the personal income report weighed
on prices. The energy component dropped to a session low of $96.84 per
barrel in early morning action but inched higher for the remainder of the
session. It managed to trim its loss to 0.4% as it closed at $97.52 per
barrel, slightly below its session high of $97.65 per barrel.
- Mar natural gas slid to a floor session
low of $3.24 per MMBtu on inventory data that showed a draw of 194 bcf
when a draw of 205 to 206 bcf ws anticipated. However, buyers stepped in
and pushed prices into positive territory and to a session high of $3.39
per MMBtu. Natural gas eventually settled the session unchanged at $3.34
per MMBtu.
- Apr gold retreated from its session
high of $1678.50 and fell deeper into negative territory on the economic
data. It settled 1.2% lower at $1661.80 per ounce, or slightly above its
session low of $1658.40 per ounce.
- Mar silver also extended overnight
losses, falling as low as $31.12 per ounce in early afternoon pit trade.
It eventually closed at $31.36 per ounce, or 2.5% lower.