Business Summary Links By Day

 

A View on Inflation & Keynesian Talking Points  : CrownThomas : 03/29/2012 The ponzi will fail, and the economy will reset - the only question is when. http://albertpeia.com/fedponzifails.htm  , Q4 GDP Comes As Expected, Claims Miss Big Two Weeks In A RowFollowing last Thursday's weekly claims release we said "Initial Claims Beat Expectations, To Miss Next Week Following Revision" and sure enough, last week's 348K beat of 350K expectations has been revised wildly higher, to 364K, meaning the initial beat was not only a miss, it was wide by a mile relative to the 350K preliminary expectation. But robots do not care - all they care is the current print, which however this time also missed, printing at 359K on expectations of a 350K number. This is the first 4 week increase in the 4 week SMA since September as the weather impact of the record warm winter starts to fade away, as explained yesterday. Same gimmicks in the continuing claims number too which like everything out of the BLS is so meaningless for concurrent data, we will probably just wait until the next week revision to get a sense of what is truly happening. More troubling is that 78K people fell of extended and EUC claims as more and more drop out of the workforce. This means the unemployment rate just dropped courtesy of even more people giving up on finding work. Thank heavens for BLS math. In other news, the final Q4 GDP revision came unchanged at 3.0%, in line with expectations. There were no major changes to the components, however Personal consumption did decline modestly from the second revision's 1.52% to 1.47%. It also appears that the government has been consistently taking away less and less from "growth", detracting 0.93%, 0.89% and 0.84% with every consecutive revision. Overall, a wash, meaning March is about to close with about with 17 misses out of 19 key economic indicators. , A Cashless Society May Be Closer Than Most People Would Ever Dare To Imagine http://albertpeia.com/cashlesssocietynear.htm  , Dave’s Daily: http://www.etfdigest.com  DIP BUYERS EMERGE ON TIME 3-29-12‘European stocks were lower on the day on more worries about…wait for it…Greece. Seems S&P thinks they need another debt restructuring. Shocked?! I thought not. This action spilled over to U.S. stocks which started the day down despite fairly benign economic data.Jobless Claims were heralded as beating the previous week’s report. But, naturally a close look revealed revisions to the previous report increased claims by 5% or 17K claims. Even though the current data (359K) missed estimates (350K) the prior report was revised from 348K claims to 365K. Headline writers could then state claims improved. Got that? These revisions to prior claims have been consistently higher over the past 20 weeks. Elsewhere GDP data came in at 3% which matched previous data and estimates so no big deal there. Most forecasters believe economic growth will decline in the next quarter.As stated, U.S. stocks began the day in a funk but then the 2:15 PM Buy Program Express left the station on time and a reversal was at hand. Why did this happen? Window dressing as we end the quarter perhaps. (One of the more amusing headlines stated: “Trading tends to be volatile at the end of the quarter as fund managers adjust their books.” Sure, nice try!Weakening sectors were widespread featuring mostly overseas sectors like European (EFA & IEV), emerging markets (EEM & EEB), and commodities (DBC, JJC, GLD & USO). Gaining stocks were Red Hat (RHT) linked with (IGV) while profit-taking occurred with homebuilders like Hovnanian (HOV) linked with (ITB) and retailer Best Buy (BBY) linked with (XRT).Volume increased given early selling and late buy program activity. Breadth per the WSJ was negative once again…’ , Three Political Wildcards That Could Upset the Bailouts in the EuropeMarch 29, 2012 By gpc1981 ‘Much of the fiscal and monetary insanity that has come out of the EU over the last two years can be summated by one of my central global theses: European policies are determined by politics, NOT economics…’ , On Liquidity And The False Recovery David McWilliams (of Punk Economics) is back (previous discussions here and here) and this time he takes on the the flood of liquidity and the false recovery that has been created. Starting with a discussion of gas prices and the central banks' recklessness behind it, he swiftly shifts to the 'shambles in Greece' where more debt is supposed to solve the problem of too much debt yet again…’ , No, It Is Not Just The Chinese New YearThe one indicator which the Chinese Politburo can not fudge: power production and hence: demand, speaks volumes about the true state of China's economy. , Presenting America's Political Apathy: Voter Turnout Rate < 50% One Government's Meat Is Any Other Man's Felony PoisonEver feel like standing in Benny and the Centrally Planned Inkjets' shoes while in the comfort of your own home? Don't. As the following table demonstrates, doing what the US government does on a daily basis is likely to get one incarcerated, prosecuted, exiled, guillotined, bound and quartered, and most likely scapegoated by a member of the administration. , Bernanke Lecture IV Decrypted: Inflation 20, Stability 17, Progress 1 , Mike Krieger On When Central Banking Dies: China and OilBesides gold and silver, there is nothing that scares Central Planners (Bankers) more that oil.  In their delusional world where they play god with our futures, they think they can make the sheeple do whatever they want by adjusting the settings on a printing press and can thus determine the fate of the global economy and humanity itself.  What they hate more than anything else is when all of their money printing causes things like oil to rise because it exposes them for the charlatans that they are.  This is why Obama is constantly attacking speculators and oil companies.  It is all an attempt to scapegoat someone else for the financial nightmare that is hitting everyone’s wallet.  This is why they floated the absurd idea of releasing more oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve and then denied it once the market failed to react vigorously enough to the rumor.  This is also why Obama surely has called the Saudis up repeatedly as of later to remind them that they might see regime change unless they ramp up oil production to help his reelection.   This brings us to one of the most important aspects of the entire global economy at the moment.  Saudi oil production is hitting record highs at the moment.  In fact if you look at the chart below you will see that the Saudis have never consistently pumped more oil than they are right now. , Which Is The True Jobless Rate Correlation? Charting The Schrödinger Unemployment RateIn an essay by Pimco's Tony Crescenzi, using the old and worn out title "To QE or Not to QE", which asks just that question, one of the lines of analysis focuses on the traditional conventional wisdom relationship between the jobless rate and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Tony says that this correlation leads him to believe that the unemployment rate is lower than where it official stands because, "Progress has been made, for example, on the employment front, with the six-month moving average for private payroll gains increasing to 214,000 per month in the six months ended in February 2012 from 160,000 per month in the 12 months prior. Importantly, weekly filings for initial jobless claims have fallen to a four-year low, fully 100k below year-ago levels and in territory consistent with a further decline in the unemployment rate (see Figure 1)." So far so good, and indeed if one very simplistically tracks merely the unemployment rate to jobless claims, the picture does indeed seem rosier than it currently is. The problem however, is that as always happens in this case, initial claims reflect only a discrete component of the true unemployment situation in the New Normal, which more than anything is characterized by one specific feature: the avalanche like implosion of the labor force, and the departure of millions of people, almost monthly from the labor pool, noted so very often on these pages, and recently forcing even Goldman and JP Morgan to ask whether Okun's law is not in fact broken precisely because of this. As such there is one other correlation that in our humble opinion should be tracked far more closely when trying to anticipate the unemployment rate: that of the unemployment rate but not just to initial claims, but rather to initial and continuing claims, as well as extended benefits and EUCs, which provide a far better picture of those who are truly falling out of the labor pool. And as the chart below shows, when using that far more accurate New Normal correlation, the picture is decided worse. In fact, instead of a sub-7% implied unemployment rate, the true implied unemployment rate is just over 12.5.  , Brevan Howard's Three Uncertainties And One Certainty To Worry About In The USWe discussed earlier about the Fed's ZIRP policy and the transmission mechanism through which its free-money ends up in the real-economy (or not as the case in point). Brevan Howard agrees that the outlook for the US is not plain-sailing and that US growth does indeed face cross-currents, with the labor market improving at a steady pace while aggregate demand slows. While the firm remains more stoic, seeing a generally favorable macro backdrop, they note three uncertainties and one certainty that keeps them up at night. The pace of the drop in unemployment against only trend growth leaves its sustainability uncertain; the potentially temporary easing of the European financial crisis seems increasingly uncertain; and the growing tensions in the Middle East and the uncertainty over gas prices derailing the fragile economy. However, it is the one certainty that worries us most (and them, it seems), and that is the enormous fiscal drag the US faces in 2013 which unchecked could reduce real GDP growth by more than 3 percentage points. Even if the President and the new Congress cut this by half it would still be a noticeable drag on growth. , Guest Post: Welcome to the United States of Orwell, Part 4: "Consumer Protection" Just Another Federal Reserve Power Grab , European Weakness Spreads And Accelerates , "The Apple Conundrum": Why One Fund Is Not Buying The iKool-Aid , Charting Premature Jubilation - The US Economic Growth Momentum Is Now Over

 

Miscellaneous Business Headlines

 

29-Mar-12 11:16PM  Healthy Correction or Bigger Pullback? The Indicator that Knows ETFguide 10:25PM Tomorrow's Tape: Income, Spending & Sentiment On Tap at The Wall Street Journal 06:24PM  Tomorrow's Tape: Income, Spending & Sentiment On Tap at The Wall Street Journal 06:16PM  Train Reading: Apple vs Chipotle at The Wall Street Journal 06:07PM  Amazon Is Not A Threat To Best Buy, Markets Overreacting, Analyst Says at Forbes 05:32PM   RIMM Results Not So Hot; Balsillie Resigns From Board at The Wall Street Journal 05:11PM  RIMM Results Not So Hot, Stock Halted; Balsillie Resigns From Board at The Wall Street Journal 04:47PM  Trading Volume Stinks at The Wall Street Journal 04:41PM  Like It or Not, Fed's Actions Raise Its Profile at The Wall Street Journal 04:37PM  Healthy Correction or Bigger Pullback? The Indicator that Knows ETFguide 04:20PM  RIMM Earnings Preview: Don't Get Your Hopes Up at The Wall Street Journal 04:19PM   Time For Credit Suisse To Open TVIX Books at The Wall Street Journal 03:28PM  RIMM Earnings Preview: Don't Get Your Hopes Up at The Wall Street Journal 03:25PM  Its Time For An ETF Gate IndexUniverse.com 03:22PM  RIMM Earnings Preview: Don't Get Your Hopes Up at The Wall Street Journal 03:16PM  What I'd Do With The $540 Milllion Lottery at Forbes 03:13PM  InPlay: Stock indices extending modest afternoon bounce -- Dow -3 is 90 points off low, S&P -3.7, Nasdaq Comp -9 Briefing.com 02:55PM  Here's How Stocks Perform When Margins Peak at The Wall Street Journal 02:35PM  Spanish Stocks Staring Over the Edge at The Wall Street Journal 02:05PM  Midday Market Report: Unemployment Concerns Weigh on Oil, Stocks at Minyanville 01:47PM  Fed's Plosser: Additional Stimulus Would Be Bad Idea at The Wall Street Journal 01:41PM  Pain In Spain Prods Germany To Play Ball at Seeking Alpha 01:40PM  TVIX Turmoil Prompts SEC Attention at The Wall Street Journal 01:25PM  Its Time For An ETF Gate IndexUniverse.com 01:23PM  Apple Propping Up S&P Earnings, Says Barclays at Barrons.com 01:06PM  Its Time For An ETF Gate IndexUniverse.com 12:59PM  InPlay: Minor new bounce highs in recent trade -- Dow -43, S&P -9, Nasdaq Comp -24 Briefing.com 12:58PM  Warning: Beware if Apple Stumbles at The Wall Street Journal 12:56PM  Are TVIX, Other ETNs Wagging the Tail Of the VIX Dog? at The Wall Street Journal 12:47PM  Healthy Correction or Bigger Pullback? The Indicator that Knows ETFguide 12:43PM  Watch Live: Bernanke Lecture on Crisis Aftermath at The Wall Street Journal 12:03PM  Watch Live: Bernanke Lecture on Crisis Aftermath at The Wall Street Journal 11:50AM  Senate Banking Committee Approves Two Fed Nominees at The Wall Street Journal 11:46AM  Low Rates Put U.S. Company Pension Deficits at Record at The Wall Street Journal 11:45AM  Notable ETF Inflow Detected - SPY, AAPL, IBM, T at Forbes 11:41AM  Index, ETF option volumes near midday optionMONSTER 11:29AM  InPlay: New session low Nasdaq Comp -27, S&P -12 and Dow -77 hovering slightly above morning troughs Briefing.com 11:25AM  Notable ETF Inflow Detected - SPY, AAPL, IBM, T at Forbes 11:24AM  Index, ETF option volumes near midday optionMONSTER 11:10AM  Jobless Claims Trend Lower, Even With Revisions at The Wall Street Journal 11:09AM  The Bright Side of Disappointing Data at The Wall Street Journal 11:09AM  AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Falls To 7-Week Low at Seeking Alpha 11:01AM  [video] Mixed Messages from Washington Hurt Market at TheStreet 10:33AM  InPlay: Stock indices put together another round of new session lows S&P -12, Nasdaq Comp -22, Dow -62 Briefing.com 10:25AM  Secondary Sources: Recovery by City, Winter Jobs, the Why of High Oil Prices at The Wall Street Journal 09:55AM  Data Dump: GDP Unchanged, Claims Revisions 'Muddy' Labor Market at The Wall Street Journal 09:35AM  GDI: An Alternate Measure Showing Stronger U.S. Growth at The Wall Street Journal 09:26AM  InPlay: Futures tick to pre-mkt lows ahead of the open... S&P futures now -7 vs. fair value, DJ future -50 Briefing.com 09:15AM  GDI: An Alternate Measure Showing Stronger U.S. Growth at The Wall Street Journal 09:05AM  Morning Links: The Best Stock Market Leading Indicator at The Wall Street Journal 09:05AM  Pre-Market Primer: Jobless Claims Miss Expectations at Minyanville 09:04AM   Vital Signs: Increasing Durable-Goods Demand at The Wall Street Journal 08:27AM  Best Buy Co. Earnings: Two Straight Quarters of Profit Broken by a Loss at Wall St. Cheat Sheet 07:46AM  [video] Market Under Pressure - Will They Buy the Dip? at TheStreet 07:23AM   Morning MarketBeat: Don't Forget About Europe at The Wall Street Journal 06:23AM  Morning MarketBeat: Don't Forget About Europe at The Wall Street Journal 06:09AM   Thursdays ETF To Watch: SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF Database

 

 

 

 

Central Banks Won’t Produce Natural Interest

The Daily Bell.com | There are arguments that certain kinds of government monopoly money have proven more effective than other kinds.



Amidst the Deepest Slump since the Great Depression, Obama is Touting an “Economic Recovery”

Barry Grey | Obama is touting a modest improvement in employment over the past several months to boost his electoral prospects in November.



Home prices hit a 10-year low

CNNMoney | Home prices have fallen a whopping 34.4% from the peak set in July, 2006.

 

US Debt Ceiling D-Day: September 14, 2012

Zero Hedge | Outgoing Treasury Secretary and tax challenged part-time pathological liar (see here) Tim Geithner said that any worries of the US debt ceiling are misplaced.



No smoking guns for Wall St. crooks

RT | Max Keiser summarizes Jon Corzine’s argument for his innocence.



$7, $8 Gas? Sen. Paul Tries to Blunt Bill That Would Push Your Gas Prices Higher

New American | Remember $1.83 per gallon gasoline? Seems like a very distant memory?

 

 

AP Business Highlights 

...Yahoo Market Update…

 

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                                                                       { some prior links of current interest }

 

A Warning Sign For The World  http://albertpeia.com/warningsignfortheworld.htm,  20 Signs You Might Be A Typical American Worker  http://albertpeia.com/20signsoftypicalamericanworker.htm , 10 Signs That America Is Decomposing Right In Front Of Our Eyes   http://albertpeia.com/10signsamericadecomposing.htm , 8 Reasons Why The Greek Debt Deal May Not Stop A Chaotic Greek Debt Default   http://albertpeia.com/8reasonsgreekdebtdefaultstillcoming.htm , 55 Interesting Facts About The U.S. Economy In 2012   http://albertpeia.com/55factsaboutus2012economy.htm  ,  http://albertpeia.com/debtpercapita.jpg  , Double-dip recession setting in across eurozone: EU , America 1950 vs. America 2012    http://albertpeia.com/downhillslideofamerica.htm , Society’s Five Stages of Economic Collapse  http://albertpeia.com/5stagesofcollapse.htm ,  No Housing Recovery - Case Shiller Shows 8th Consecutive Month Of House Price Declines, Goldman: Germany Is Now On The Hook By €1 Trillion (Or 40% Of GDP), 20 Economic Statistics To Use To Wake Sheeple Up From Their Entertainment-Induced Comas  http://albertpeia.com/20ecostatstowakesheeple.htm  , Central bank balance sheet expansion since end 2007  Mar 1st, 2012 by News (ZeroHedge) — SNB +230%; Fed +222%, BOJ +125%, BOE +87%, PBOC +93%, ECB +51%. USA Gold / PG View: Pretty strong evidence that the rally in bonds — and by extension the rally in stocks — is nothing but a charade. , 10.7 Percent: Unemployment In Europe Is Worse Than It Was At The Peak Of The Last Recession  http://albertpeia.com/europeunemploymentworsethanrecession.htm , Inflation Is A Tax And The Federal Reserve Is Taxing The Living Daylights Out Of Us   http://albertpeia.com/inflationisatax.htm  , 15 Potentially Massive Threats To The U.S. Economy Over The Next 12 Months  http://albertpeia.com/15massivethreatstoeconomy.htm , 1 Through 30 – The Coming U.S. Financial Crisis By The Numbers http://albertpeia.com/1-30usfinancialcrisiscoming.htm Greece Has Defaulted - Which Country In Europe Is Next?    http://albertpeia.com/greecehasdefaultedwhonext.htm , Five Charts That Prove We’re in a Depression and That the Federal Reserve and Washington Are Wasting Money gpc1981  http://albertpeia.com/usindepressionfedandgovwastingmoney.htm  , Broken Promises: Pensions All Over America Are Being Savagely Cut Or Are Vanishing Completely .http://albertpeia.com/uspensionscutorvanishing.htm  , America Is Being Transformed From A Wealthy Nation Into A Poor Nation At Breathtaking Speed   http://albertpeia.com/ustransformedfromwealthytopoor.htm , ECRI Stays with Recession Call  New American | The vicious cycle is starting where lower sales, lower production, lower employment and lower income [leads] back to lower sales…BOB ADELMANN New American Tuesday, March 13, 2012 http://albertpeia.com/ecricallsrecession.htm , Consumer prices rise on high gas costs But outside higher pump prices, inflation stayed mild. (Washington Post) [ Wake up! They’d have a hard time denying what’s in plain sight for everyone to see. Yet, apparently they’ve not gone grocery shopping lately; you know, all that catered food for fools in Washington.  , Financial Crisis Phase II Is Ahead at Forbes Bert Dohmen ‘ In late 2007, I wrote the book Prelude To Meltdown, predicting the global crisis that occurred the following year.  I now see a similar confluence of events that warns of phase II of the global crisis… My work shows that “the new recession has started.”… Over the past 33 years, we have called the start of every recession, often on the exact month, or within one month, of the official start as determined one year later by the official arbiter of recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)… However, inflation is far understated for political reasons. Currently, the GDP deflator is 1.8%, which hardly reflects the true rise in prices. Therefore, what is counted as “growth,” is actually price increases. Actual inflation, according to free market economists who calculate inflation as it was done in 1980 before the politician re-engineered it, is now more than 11%. Using that to adjust GDP for inflation, would show that the economy is now in a very sharp contraction…’ , Conned 2012: Joseph Kony Is A CIA Contractor  [ Yeah, cia, mossad, kony, they look like and are a bunch of spooks. ] Saman Mohammadi | Former European MP, journalist, and author Richard Cottrell says Lord Resistance Army is backed by CIA and Mossad. , 11 Reasons Why America Would Be A Better Place Without Goldman Sachs [ If only it was just 11 and not an endless number of reasons why the aforesaid is true! And, though america particularly, not just america, but the entire world as well! ] http://albertpeia.com/americabetterwithoutgoldmansachs.com  , The Obama Flag: Who Decided That It Was Okay To Replace The Stars On The American Flag With The Face Of Barack Obama? http://endoftheamericandream.com http://albertpeia.com/monkeyflag.htm   [Aside from the desecration issues, from a purely aesthetic perspective, that picture on the flag of that ugly monkey obama is an absolute disgrace and affront to any rational person’s aesthetic sensibilities!] , Who Decided That It Would Be A Good Idea.... http://albertpeia.com/misplacedfaith.htm  , As US Rakes Largest Monthly Deficit In History, 2012 Tax Revenues Net Of Refunds Trail 2011Guest Post: Money from Nothing - A Primer On Fake Wealth Creation And Its Implications (Part 1)What is fraud except creating “value” from nothing and passing it off as something? Frauds interlink and grow upon each other. Our debt-based money system serves as the fraud foundation. In our debt-based money system, debt must grow in order to create money. Therefore, there is no way to pay off aggregate debt with available money. More money must be lent into the system to make the payments for old debts. This causes overall debt to expand as new money for actual people (vs. banks) always arrives at interest and compounds exponentially. This process is called financialization. Financialization: The process of making money from nothing in which debt (i.e. poverty, lack) is paradoxically considered an asset (i.e. wealth, gain). In current financialized economies “wealth expansion” comes from the parasitic taxation of productivity in the form of interest on fiat lending. This interest over time consumes a greater and greater share of resources, assets, labor, and livelihood until nothing is left., Guest Post: Money from Nothing - A Primer on Fake Wealth Creation and its Implications (Part 2) Only in a debt-based money system could debt be curiously cast as an asset. We’ve made “extend and pretend” a quaint phrase for a burgeoning market for financial lying and profiteering aimed toward preventing the collapse of a debt- (or lack-) based system that was already doomed by its initial design to collapse. , Guest Post: The Audacity of Bonuses At MF GlobalIn the spirit of George Orwell’s Animal Farm commandment: “all animals are equal, but some animals are more equal then others” comes the galling news that bankruptcy trustee, Louis Freeh, could approve the defunct, MF Global to pay bonuses to certain senior executives. This, despite the fact that nearly $1.6 billion of customer funds remains “missing” or otherwise partially accounted for, yet beyond the reach of those customers, perhaps forever, since before the firm declared bankruptcy on October 31, 2011... ,