Business Summary Links By Day
A
View on Inflation & Keynesian Talking Points : CrownThomas
: 03/29/2012 The ponzi will fail, and the economy
will reset - the only question is when. http://albertpeia.com/fedponzifails.htm
, Q4
GDP Comes As Expected, Claims Miss Big Two Weeks In A Row Durden 3-29-12 Following last Thursday's
weekly claims release we said "Initial
Claims Beat Expectations, To
Miss Next Week Following Revision" and sure enough,
last week's 348K beat of 350K expectations has been revised wildly higher, to
364K, meaning the initial beat was not only a miss, it was wide by a mile
relative to the 350K preliminary expectation. But robots do not care - all they
care is the current print, which however this time also missed, printing at
359K on expectations of a 350K number. This is the first 4 week increase in the
4 week SMA since September as the weather impact of the record warm winter
starts to fade away, as explained yesterday. Same gimmicks in the continuing
claims number too which like everything out of the BLS is so meaningless for
concurrent data, we will probably just wait until the next week revision to get
a sense of what is truly happening. More troubling is that 78K people fell of
extended and EUC claims as more and more drop out of the workforce. This means
the unemployment rate just dropped courtesy of even more people giving up on
finding work. Thank heavens for BLS math. In other news, the final Q4 GDP
revision came unchanged at 3.0%, in line with expectations. There were no
major changes to the components, however Personal consumption did decline
modestly from the second revision's 1.52% to 1.47%. It also appears that the
government has been consistently taking away less and less from
"growth", detracting 0.93%, 0.89% and 0.84% with every consecutive
revision. Overall, a wash, meaning March is about to close with about with 17
misses out of 19 key economic indicators. , A
Cashless Society May Be Closer Than Most People Would Ever Dare To Imagine http://albertpeia.com/cashlesssocietynear.htm
, Dave’s Daily: http://www.etfdigest.com DIP BUYERS EMERGE ON TIME 3-29-12‘European
stocks were lower on the day on more worries about…wait for it…Greece. Seems
S&P thinks they need another debt restructuring. Shocked?! I thought not.
This action spilled over to U.S.
stocks which started the day down despite fairly benign economic data.Jobless
Claims were heralded as beating the previous week’s report. But, naturally a
close look revealed revisions to the previous report increased claims by 5% or
17K claims. Even though the current data (359K) missed estimates (350K) the
prior report was revised from 348K claims to 365K. Headline writers could then
state claims improved. Got that? These revisions to prior claims have been
consistently higher over the past 20 weeks. Elsewhere GDP data came in at 3%
which matched previous data and estimates so no big deal there. Most
forecasters believe economic growth will decline in the next quarter.As stated,
U.S. stocks began the day in a funk but then the 2:15 PM Buy Program Express
left the station on time and a reversal was at hand. Why did this happen?
Window dressing as we end the quarter perhaps. (One of the more amusing
headlines stated: “Trading tends to be volatile at the end of the quarter as
fund managers adjust their books.” Sure, nice try!Weakening sectors were
widespread featuring mostly overseas sectors like European (EFA & IEV), emerging
markets (EEM & EEB), and commodities (DBC, JJC, GLD & USO). Gaining
stocks were Red Hat (RHT) linked with (IGV) while profit-taking occurred with
homebuilders like Hovnanian (HOV) linked with (ITB) and retailer Best Buy (BBY)
linked with (XRT).Volume increased given early selling and late buy program
activity. Breadth per the WSJ was negative once again…’ , Three
Political Wildcards That Could Upset the Bailouts in the EuropeMarch 29, 2012 By gpc1981 ‘Much
of the fiscal and monetary insanity that has come out of the EU over the last
two years can be summated by one of my central global theses: European policies are determined by politics, NOT
economics…’ , On Liquidity
And The False Recovery Durden
3-29-12 David McWilliams (of Punk Economics) is back (previous
discussions here
and here)
and this time he takes on the the flood of liquidity and the false recovery
that has been created. Starting with a discussion of gas prices and the central banks' recklessness behind
it, he swiftly shifts to the 'shambles in Greece' where more debt is supposed
to solve the problem of too much debt yet again…’ , No, It Is
Not Just The Chinese New Year Durden 3-29-12 The one indicator which the Chinese Politburo can not fudge: power
production and hence: demand,
speaks volumes about the true state of China's economy. , Presenting
America's Political Apathy: Voter Turnout Rate < 50% Durden 3-29-12 , One
Government's Meat Is Any Other Man's Felony Poison Durden 3-29-12Ever feel like standing in Benny and the Centrally Planned Inkjets'
shoes while in the comfort of your own home? Don't. As the following table demonstrates,
doing what the US government does on a daily basis is likely to get one
incarcerated, prosecuted, exiled, guillotined, bound and quartered, and most
likely scapegoated by a member of the administration. , Bernanke
Lecture IV Decrypted: Inflation 20, Stability 17, Progress 1 , Mike
Krieger On When Central Banking Dies: China and OilDurden 3-29-12 Besides gold and silver, there is nothing that scares Central Planners
(Bankers) more that oil. In their delusional world where they play god
with our futures, they think they can make the sheeple do whatever they want by
adjusting the settings on a printing press and can thus determine the fate of
the global economy and humanity itself. What they hate more than anything
else is when all of their money printing causes things like oil to rise because
it exposes them for the charlatans that they are. This is why Obama is
constantly attacking speculators and oil companies. It is all an attempt
to scapegoat someone else for the financial nightmare that is hitting
everyone’s wallet. This is why they floated the absurd idea of releasing
more oil from the U.S.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve and then denied it once the market failed to react
vigorously enough to the rumor. This is also why Obama surely has called
the Saudis up repeatedly as of later to remind them that they might see regime
change unless they ramp up oil production to help his reelection.
This brings us to one of the most important aspects of the entire global
economy at the moment. Saudi oil production is hitting record highs at the
moment. In fact if you look at the chart below you will see that the
Saudis have never consistently pumped more oil than they are right now. , Which
Is The True Jobless Rate Correlation? Charting The Schrödinger Unemployment
Rate
Durden 3-29-12 In an essay by Pimco's Tony Crescenzi, using the old and worn out title
"To
QE or Not to QE", which asks just that question, one of the lines of
analysis focuses on the traditional conventional wisdom relationship between
the jobless rate and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Tony says that
this correlation leads him to believe that the unemployment rate is lower than
where it official stands because, "Progress has been made, for example, on
the employment front, with the six-month moving average for private payroll
gains increasing to 214,000 per month in the six months ended in February 2012
from 160,000 per month in the 12 months prior. Importantly, weekly filings for initial jobless claims have fallen to a
four-year low, fully 100k below year-ago levels and in territory consistent
with a further decline in the unemployment rate (see Figure 1)."
So far so good, and indeed if one very simplistically tracks merely the
unemployment rate to jobless claims, the picture does indeed seem rosier than
it currently is. The problem however, is that as always happens in this case,
initial claims reflect only a discrete component of the true unemployment
situation in the New Normal, which more
than anything is characterized by one specific feature: the avalanche like implosion
of the labor force, and the departure of millions of
people, almost monthly from the labor pool, noted so very often on these pages,
and recently forcing even Goldman and JP Morgan to ask whether Okun's law is
not in fact broken precisely because of this. As such there is one other
correlation that in our humble opinion should be tracked far more closely when
trying to anticipate the unemployment rate: that of the unemployment rate but
not just to initial claims, but rather
to initial and continuing claims, as well as extended benefits and EUCs, which
provide a far better picture of those who are truly falling out of the labor
pool. And as the chart below shows, when using that far more
accurate New Normal correlation, the picture
is decided worse. In fact, instead of a sub-7% implied unemployment rate, the true implied unemployment rate is just over 12.5.
, Brevan
Howard's Three Uncertainties And One Certainty To Worry About In The US Durden 3-29-12 We discussed
earlier about the Fed's ZIRP policy and the transmission mechanism through
which its free-money ends up in the real-economy (or not as the case in point).
Brevan Howard agrees that the outlook for the US
is not plain-sailing and that US growth does indeed face cross-currents, with the
labor market improving at a steady pace while aggregate demand slows.
While the firm remains more stoic, seeing a generally favorable macro backdrop,
they note three uncertainties and one certainty that keeps them up at night.
The pace of the drop in unemployment
against only trend growth leaves its sustainability uncertain; the potentially
temporary easing of the European
financial crisis seems increasingly uncertain; and the growing
tensions in the Middle East and the uncertainty over gas prices derailing the fragile economy.
However, it is the one certainty that worries us most (and them, it seems), and
that is the enormous fiscal drag the US
faces in 2013 which unchecked could reduce real GDP growth by
more than 3 percentage points. Even if the President and the new Congress cut
this by half it would still be a noticeable drag on growth. , Guest
Post: Welcome to the United States of Orwell, Part 4: "Consumer Protection"
Just Another Federal Reserve Power Grab , European
Weakness Spreads And Accelerates , "The
Apple Conundrum": Why One Fund Is Not Buying The iKool-Aid , Charting
Premature Jubilation - The US Economic Growth Momentum Is Now Over Durden
3-29-12
Miscellaneous Business
Headlines
29-Mar-12
11:16PM Healthy Correction or Bigger Pullback? The Indicator that Knows
ETFguide 10:25PM Tomorrow's Tape: Income, Spending & Sentiment On Tap at The Wall Street Journal 06:24PM Tomorrow's Tape: Income, Spending & Sentiment On Tap at The Wall Street Journal 06:16PM Train Reading: Apple vs Chipotle at The Wall Street Journal 06:07PM Amazon Is Not A Threat To Best Buy, Markets Overreacting,
Analyst Says at Forbes 05:32PM RIMM Results Not So Hot; Balsillie Resigns From Board at The Wall Street Journal 05:11PM RIMM Results Not So Hot, Stock Halted; Balsillie Resigns From
Board at The Wall
Street Journal 04:47PM Trading Volume Stinks at The Wall Street Journal
04:41PM Like It or Not, Fed's Actions Raise Its Profile at The Wall Street Journal 04:37PM Healthy Correction or Bigger Pullback? The Indicator that Knows
ETFguide 04:20PM RIMM Earnings Preview: Don't Get Your Hopes Up at The Wall Street Journal 04:19PM Time For Credit Suisse To Open TVIX Books at The Wall Street Journal 03:28PM RIMM Earnings Preview: Don't Get Your Hopes Up at The Wall Street Journal 03:25PM Its Time For An ETF Gate IndexUniverse.com
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-3 is 90 points off low, S&P -3.7, Nasdaq Comp -9 Briefing.com 02:55PM Here's How Stocks Perform When Margins Peak at The Wall Street Journal 02:35PM Spanish Stocks Staring Over the Edge at The Wall Street Journal 02:05PM Midday Market Report: Unemployment Concerns Weigh on Oil,
Stocks at Minyanville 01:47PM Fed's Plosser: Additional Stimulus Would Be Bad Idea at The Wall Street Journal 01:41PM Pain In Spain Prods Germany To Play Ball at Seeking Alpha 01:40PM TVIX Turmoil Prompts SEC Attention at The Wall Street Journal 01:25PM Its Time For An ETF Gate IndexUniverse.com
01:23PM Apple Propping Up S&P Earnings, Says Barclays at Barrons.com 01:06PM Its Time For An ETF Gate IndexUniverse.com
12:59PM InPlay:
Minor new bounce highs in recent trade -- Dow -43, S&P -9, Nasdaq Comp -24
Briefing.com 12:58PM Warning: Beware if Apple Stumbles at The Wall Street Journal 12:56PM Are TVIX, Other ETNs Wagging the Tail Of the VIX Dog? at The Wall Street Journal 12:47PM Healthy Correction or Bigger Pullback? The Indicator that Knows
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Nasdaq Comp -27, S&P -12 and Dow -77 hovering slightly above morning
troughs Briefing.com 11:25AM Notable ETF Inflow Detected - SPY, AAPL, IBM, T at Forbes 11:24AM Index, ETF option volumes near midday optionMONSTER 11:10AM Jobless Claims Trend Lower, Even With Revisions at The Wall Street Journal 11:09AM The Bright Side of Disappointing Data at The Wall Street Journal 11:09AM AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Falls To 7-Week Low at Seeking Alpha 11:01AM [video] Mixed Messages from Washington Hurt Market at TheStreet 10:33AM InPlay: Stock indices
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Dow -62 Briefing.com 10:25AM Secondary Sources: Recovery by City, Winter Jobs, the Why of
High Oil Prices at The
Wall Street Journal 09:55AM Data Dump: GDP Unchanged, Claims Revisions 'Muddy' Labor Market
at The Wall Street Journal 09:35AM GDI: An Alternate Measure Showing Stronger U.S. Growth at The Wall Street Journal 09:26AM InPlay: Futures tick to
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Central
Banks Won’t Produce Natural Interest
The Daily Bell.com | There
are arguments that certain kinds of government monopoly money have proven more
effective than other kinds.
Amidst
the Deepest Slump since the Great Depression, Obama is Touting an “Economic
Recovery”
Barry Grey | Obama is
touting a modest improvement in employment over the past several months to
boost his electoral prospects in November.
Home prices hit a
10-year low
CNNMoney | Home
prices have fallen a whopping 34.4% from the peak set in July, 2006.
US Debt
Ceiling D-Day: September 14, 2012
Zero Hedge | Outgoing
Treasury Secretary and tax challenged part-time pathological liar (see here)
Tim Geithner said that any worries of the US debt ceiling are misplaced.
No smoking guns
for Wall St. crooks
RT | Max Keiser summarizes Jon Corzine’s
argument for his innocence.
$7,
$8 Gas? Sen. Paul Tries to Blunt Bill That Would Push Your Gas Prices Higher
New American | Remember
$1.83 per gallon gasoline? Seems like a very distant memory?
AP Business
Highlights
...Yahoo Market
Update…
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{ some prior links of current
interest }