8-23-11 POSTS

 


Waiting for word on new Fed action Those expecting Bernanke to unveil any big plans are likely getting ahead of themselves.  (Washington Post) [ Boy! Anything bigger than what
no-recession-helicopter-ben-b.s.-bernanke has already done is certainly in the realm of that final blow that destroyed the nation, the coup de grace, the straw that broke the camels back, the final meltdown, the china syndrome, the grand finale, the You get the picture of blatant failure! The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed!  Train Reading: The Stock Market Is (Criminally) Insane The Wall Street Journal , Ted Weisberg to Frank Motek 1070am could think of no reason for the market to be up (BAD NEWS: new home sales down, oil prices up - China's manufacturing index showed a decline, the seventh straight month of declines for German manufacturing and the first decline in two years for European manufacturing activity, in u.s. a big miss on new home sales and a decline in the Richmond Fed's manufacturing index.) with some prodding ultimately a begrudging mention of that meaningless fudge term oversold which of course is no reason at all particularly since the market is substantially overvalued so take this as an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits because theres much worse to come! So whats changed of significance?Nothing! Absolutely nothing, yet a manipulated computer-programmed ( high frequency trading bots ) churn-and-earn suckers rally based on desperation, fraud and b***s*** alone to suck suckers in and keep suckers sucked in! ,  Fed Economists Predict A 15 Year Bear Market For Stocks Aug 23rd, 2011 News (BusinessInsider) The San Francisco Fed has come out with a research paper connecting the dots between the retiring baby boomers and stock prices. The thinking is that the boomers will divest themselves of stocks as they retire and eat into their savings.These conclusions are just horrendous! The suggestion is that there is a 15-year bear market in front of us. Multiples will fall by 50%!!…“We do see it as something of a headwind as the economy is attempting to recover. These deep thinkers have it completely wrong. They think that the key to having a stronger economy is higher stock prices. So they spend all of their efforts dreaming up ways to keep the S&P ramping up. I think it is the exact other way around. If the economy were to be growing [ you see, thats the problem in large part the economy wont really be growing (huge price increases / inflation for the illusion), among a multitude of other problems ], it is reasonable to assume that stock prices might rise. It is completely false to assume that attempts to jigger stocks higher will lead to a stronger economy [ This is true, but the writer ignores the criminal fraud factor as the raison detre for the jiggering. ]  ,  Dow:Gold Ratio and the Secular Bear Market Minyanville  Toby Connor Stocks.. after.. bear market rally, will roll over and continue down into a final four-year cycle low..Depending on whether or not the Fed tries to fight the cleansing process, or Ben Bernanke tries to stop the bear market with another round of quantitative easing, stocks should either test or breach the March '09 lows. Either way I expect that 2012 will go down as one of the worst years in human history. Certainly in the same category as 1932, if not worse …’  ,  american technology is horrendous and vastly overrated! ,  Famed economist predicts economic calamity in 2012. See the evidence.Newsmax  http://w3.newsmax.com/a/aftershockb/video.cfm?promo_code=CA79-1      50% unemployment, 90% stock market drop, 100% inflation. See the Evidence (Newsmax.com  ,   Accounting Gimmics Resurface as Growth Flounders at TheStreet Rebekah Smith, director of financial advisory services at accounting and consulting firm GBQ consulting, says accounting tricks and schemes are likely to start unraveling as we head into 2012 and the lag effect catches up. "The typical accounting fraud goes on for about 18 to 26 months before it is uncovered. The frauds that took place in 2009 are not going to surface until later in 2011 or into 2012."   ,  Morgan Stanley Biggest Welfare Recipient as Federal Reserve Lent Banks $1.2 Trillion During Financial Crisis Wall St. Cheat Sheet  ,    Social Security disability on verge of insolvency     ,  Welcome To The New Bear Market For Stocks  Forbes / Suttmeier ,  Dow/Gold Ratio Lowest Since 1987 Crash   Forbes /  Adrian Ash  ,   Ignore Buffett's Advice, Don't Buy Stocks Forbes /  Dohmen , The "Crimes" That Wrecked The Markets  Forbes / Lenzner  ,  Tech Leading Market Lower The Wall Street Journal  ,  Banks closed in Fla, Ga, Ill; 2011 total is 68   ,   No Recession Coming ... It's Already Here   Minyanville's T3 Daily Recap: Market Gives Back Weekend Gains Amid US Bank Woes at Minyanville  ,Previous:8-18-11 Stocks rally off lows to suck suckers in and keep suckers sucked in on bad news (Jobless Claims, Inflation Rise More Than Expected CNBC) , fraud ( SEC destroyed documents, senator says    Crimes Wrecked The Markets    ), and b***s*** alone!  MKM Bracing For SPY To Drop 8% More; Nasdaq Nearing August Lows Barrons.com,  WHY NEW LOWS ARE LIKELY  Maierhofer, Is It 2008 Again? Looking at the Summer Crash of 2011 Gayed A real bear market has begun …’ ,  Abandon Ship?[The USS Titanic] Yes, Because of These 5 Bearish Icebergs ... McGill ,  There's A Recession Coming According To The Data at Forbes  ,  HP, Dell hammered as tech-spending outlook darkens   JDSU, NetApp, disappointing figures, shares hit hard in after-hours trade   Dell braces investors for a bumpy road Dell makes a case on why it can better weather an upcoming storm  ,   S&P says sell Google's shares after Motorola deal  ,  STOCKS FALL AFTER FLOOD OF BAD NEWS: Here's What You Need To Know  Joe Weisenthal ,   Stocks Slip On Concern Over Europe's Debt, U.S. Data  ,  Watch Out: 2011 Looks A Lot Like The Market Top In 2007 Sean Hanlon Take A Lesson From 2007 And Sell Stocks Now at Forbes, [video] Trader: We Could Test 1120 Lows at TheStreet.com   In a Downtrend, Sell a Rally (Daily FX)     

 

 

http://www.albertpeia.com 

 

ECB faces showdown over crisis management The European Central Banks emergency efforts to address the continents debt crisis represent a highly un­or­tho­dox leap into politics and an exceptional foray into the financial markets. But while these steps in recent weeks have helped keep the continents crisis at bay, the central bank has not been able to put the European economy on a sounder footing, analysts and government officials say. (Washington Post) [ Ooooh! The showdown or should we more accurately say hodown as in, borrowing the slang for prostitutes worldwide, hodown! Yes the hos are down to the very bottoms of their bags of tricks well, you know what they say about experience (but not in) counting oldest profession in the world, so weve been told Dow:Gold Ratio and the Secular Bear Market Minyanville  Toby Connor Stocks.. after.. bear market rally, will roll over and continue down into a final four-year cycle low..Depending on whether or not the Fed tries to fight the cleansing process, or Ben Bernanke tries to stop the bear market with another round of quantitative easing, stocks should either test or breach the March '09 lows. Either way I expect that 2012 will go down as one of the worst years in human history. Certainly in the same category as 1932, if not worse …’  ,  american technology is horrendous and vastly overrated! ,  Famed economist predicts economic calamity in 2012. See the evidence.Newsmax  http://w3.newsmax.com/a/aftershockb/video.cfm?promo_code=CA79-1      50% unemployment, 90% stock market drop, 100% inflation. See the Evidence (Newsmax.com   ,    Accounting Gimmics Resurface as Growth Flounders at TheStreet Rebekah Smith, director of financial advisory services at accounting and consulting firm GBQ consulting, says accounting tricks and schemes are likely to start unraveling as we head into 2012 and the lag effect catches up. "The typical accounting fraud goes on for about 18 to 26 months before it is uncovered. The frauds that took place in 2009 are not going to surface until later in 2011 or into 2012."   ,  Morgan Stanley Biggest Welfare Recipient as Federal Reserve Lent Banks $1.2 Trillion During Financial Crisis Wall St. Cheat Sheet  ,    Social Security disability on verge of insolvency     ,      Fed Economists Predict A 15 Year Bear Market For Stocks Aug 23rd, 2011 News (BusinessInsider) The San Francisco Fed has come out with a research paper connecting the dots between the retiring baby boomers and stock prices. The thinking is that the boomers will divest themselves of stocks as they retire and eat into their savings.These conclusions are just horrendous! The suggestion is that there is a 15-year bear market in front of us. Multiples will fall by 50%!!…“We do see it as something of a headwind as the economy is attempting to recover. These deep thinkers have it completely wrong. They think that the key to having a stronger economy is higher stock prices. So they spend all of their efforts dreaming up ways to keep the S&P ramping up. I think it is the exact other way around. If the economy were to be growing [ you see, thats the problem in large part the economy wont really be growing (huge price increases / inflation for the illusion), among a multitude of other problems ], it is reasonable to assume that stock prices might rise. It is completely false to assume that attempts to jigger stocks higher will lead to a stronger economy [ This is true, but the writer ignores the criminal fraud factor as the raison detre for the jiggering. ]  ,  8 More Reasons Why You Should Be Deeply Concerned That The U.S. Government Has Lost Its AAA Credit Rating The Economic Collapse ‘…  #8 The U.S. national debt continues to get worse by the day.  Just check out what economics professor Laurence J. Kotlikoff recently told NPR.If you add up all the promises that have been made for spending obligations, including defense expenditures, and you subtract all the taxes that we expect to collect, the difference is $211 trillion. Thats the fiscal gap ..   Why You Shouldn't Buy Into This Plunge Forbes/O'NeilThe market is building momentum to the downside). !  Italy unveils plan to calm fears of escalating crisis  (WP) [ Yeah, dem piigs were back in the news. Dem PIIGS still got problems.  Europes debt crisis threatens Italy (WP) [ Yeah, dem darn PIIGS.  Reminds me of that joke (I wont repeat it here except the punch line): Thats black barts girl.  Pelosi: We are not Greece  ( but greecy Italy Italians voice concern over Italian debt crisis scenario [ Whew! Close call! There you go. Nothing to worry about now that wobamas got a boehner so not to be so hard on them; if pelosi says it, it must be true Not! Pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america, they, she look pretty greecey to me. After all, if the sames wobamas far-reaching plan on debt, we all know wobama the b (for b***s***) is total b***s*** which means like Greecey PIIGS theyll be back to the trough for more slop py.  Deficits And Stimulus Only Delay The Inevitable Collapse Bob Chapman | America is insolvent and has been so for a long time. US Is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece: Gross When adding in all of the money owed to cover future liabilities in entitlement programs the US is actually in worse financial shape than Greece and other debt-laden European countries, Pimcos Bill Gross told CNBC Monday.  Maierhofer: USA INCOME STATEMENT:Total federal spending in 2010 amounted to $3.456 trillion. Total receipts added up to $2.162 trillion. USA Inc.'s 2010 deficit was $1.294 trillion.The 2011 federal budget is $3.7 trillion with a projected deficit of$1.6 trillion. USA BALANCE SHEET: Consensus estimates for unfunded obligations vary. Mary Meeker pegs the shortfall at $31 trillion, PIMCO's Bill Gross estimates the unreported debt to be $75 trillion, while other estimates exceed $100 trillion (these amounts are insurmountable) …’ ] 

 

 

http://www.albertpeia.com 

 

Poll puts Obama in dead heat with 4 GOP contenders (Washington Post) [ Geeh I dont know about that seems hard to reconcile those polls with wobamas record low approval ratings consonant with wobamas record low performance consonant with the nations record low prospects in large part owing to wobamas non-performance by deviating from campaign promises and hence, his consequent consummate performance as bush failure 3.  Unions angry over Postal Service cuts They said any move to break labor contracts to lay off 120,000 would hurt the already ailing movement. (Washington Post) [ I reiterate my call for the well managed, efficient, and reliable company, UPS to take over the operation of the poorly managed, inefficient, and unreliable USPS. Postal Service seeking 20 percent staff cut EXCLUSIVE | In cost-cutting bid, USPS also proposes withdrawing employees from existing health and retirement plans and creating its own benefit programs. Congress would need to sign off. (Washington Post) [ I think its a great idea. Indeed, 50% would be substantially better. Even better yet, UPS should take over their entire operation. After all, UPS is well managed and efficient; and also, very reliable. On the other hand, the USPS is poorly managed, inefficient, and very unreliable: 
October 15, 2010 (*see infra {ultimately delivered by UPS})

                       ----------

 

*The foregoing and as indicated therein was previously send 9-14-10 but delivery confirmation was flawed as set forth below and my inquiries to the u.s. postal service rebuffed (I believe tampered with inasmuch as your office could not locate same). This cover letter (9-13-10) is on the 3 disks with navigable hyperlinks to the subject files for ease of reference, including the files in the RICO action as indicated. (10-15-10) I spoke with Rose, FBI, ADIC Secretary, who indicates once again that your office has not received the aforesaid and which can reasonably be presumed to have been tampered with, and hence, a violation of the federal statute concerning same. (Ultimately delivered by UPS) ]

 

Report: DOJ investigating S&P's mortgage securities ratings Associated Press The Justice Department is investigating whether the agency improperly rated dozens of mortgage securities in the years leading up to the financial crisis. (Washington Post) [ There you go the retaliation the long awaited payback (quid pro quo -the no pros- witheld) for long overdue pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt u.s. downgrade. They should be investigating themselves, the SEC ( SEC destroyed documents, senator says ), among numerous other fraudulent, illegal schemes, activities.  SHARE YOUR OPINION ON THE DEBT LIMIT
Dear Congresswoman Roybal-Allard:

The following is my comment to an LA Times article regarding a Justice Department cover-up! As for your inquiry, all I think about day and night is a long overdue resolution to the RICO litigation as set forth therein:

ATF Chief Melson:Justice Department trying to shield officials (LATimes) Serrano

 

I believe him!

 I truly empathize with the ATF in terms of government cover-ups, notably by even the DOJ. Youll recognize some familiar names (ie., Alito, Trump, Freeh (Louis Freeh now has dual citizenship with Italy), and some familiar crimes (ie., drug money laundering, etc. real cash cow for govt ops, bribes, etc.). [Did you know this about the following ATF Agents who were probably viewed as loose ends: Steve Willis, Robert Williams, Todd McKeahan & Conway LeBleu:   Died February 28, 1993 by gunfire at Waco. All four were examined by a pathologist and died from identical wounds to the left temple. All four had been body guards for Bill Clinton, three while campaigning for President and when he was Governor of Arkansas.They also were the ONLY 4 BATF agents killed at Waco. ]

 

 

 

Heres some real, complicit cover-up / fraud on the part of the federal government, et als:

 

October 15, 2010 (*see infra {ultimately delivered by UPS})

 

 

Steven M. Martinez, Assistant Director In Charge
Federal Bureau of Investigation, USDOJ
11000 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 1700

Los Angeles, CA 90024

 

 

Dear Sir:

 

I enclose herewith 3 copies of the within DVD rom autorun disk (which will open in your computers browser) as per your offices request as made this day (the disk and contents have been scanned by Avast, McAfee, and Norton which Ive installed on my computer to prevent viral attacks / infection and are without threat). I also include 1 copy of the DVD as filed with the subject court as referenced therein (which files are also included on the aforesaid 3 disks in a separate folder named 112208opocoan). The (civil) RICO action (as youre aware, the RICO Act is a criminal statute which provides a civil remedy, including treble damages and attorney fees, as an incentive for private prosecution of said claims probably owing to the fact that the USDOJ seems somewhat overwhelmed and in need of such assistance given the seriousness and prevalence of said violations of law which have a corrupting influence on the process, and which corruption is pervasive). A grievance complaint against Coan was also filed concurrently with the subject action and held in abeyance pending resolution of the action which was illegally dismissed without any supporting law and in contravention of the Order of The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge, USDC, District Connecticut. The files below the horizontal rule are the referenced documents as filed. (Owing to the damage to the financial interests of both the U.S. and the District of Congresswoman Roybal-Allard, viz., Los Angeles, the Qui Tam provisions of the Federal False Claims Act probably would apply and I would absent resolution seek to refer the within to a firm with expertise in that area of the law with which I am not familiar).

 

 

The document in 5 pages under penalty of perjury I was asked to forward to the FBI office in New Haven is probably the best and most concise summary of the case  RICO Summary to FBI Under Penalty of Perjury at Their Request (5 pages)      [  ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf   http://albertpeia.com/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf          ].

 

 

The correspondence I received from the Congresswoman by way of email attachment (apparent but typical problem with my mail) along with my response thereto is included on the 3 disks as     fbicorrespondencereyes.htm     .   With regard to the calls to the FBIs LA and New Haven, CT offices: There was one call to the LA office and I was referred to the Long Beach, CA office where I personally met with FBI Agent Jeff Hayes to whom I gave probative evidentiary documents of the money laundering which he confirmed as indicative of same (he was transferred from said office within approximately a month of said meeting and his location was not disclosed to me upon inquiry). The matter was assigned to FBI Agent Ron Barndollar and we remained in touch for in excess of a decade until he abruptly retired (our last conversation prior to his retirement related to the case and parenthetically, Rudy Giuliani whose father I stated had been an enforcer for the mob to which he registered disbelief and requested I prove it, which I did he served 12 years in prison, aggravated assault/manslaughter? and no, there is no Chinese wall of separation Andrew Maloneys the one that prosecuted gotti).

 

 

In contradistinction to the statement in said correspondence, there is a plethora of information including evidence supporting the claims set forth in the    RICO VERIFIED COMPLAINT    (see infra). Such includes and as set forth in the case, inter alia,

 

 

 

 

There is applicable insurance / surety coverage and neither LA, nor creditors, nor I should continue to have been damaged by this brazened corrupt and illegal scenario, which should be resolved in accordance with the meaningful rules of law apposite thereto.

 

 

Sincerely,

 

 

Albert L. Peia

611 E. 5th Street, #404

Los Angeles, CA 90013

(213) 219-**** (cell phone)

(213) 622-3745 (listed land line but there are unresolved problems with the line, computer connection may be the reason but I hesitate to chance greater non-performance / worsening by their fix so cell phone best for contact).{recent change 323-786-6651 -magic jack}

 

 

                       ----------

 

*The foregoing and as indicated therein was previously send 9-14-10 but delivery confirmation was flawed as set forth below and my inquiries to the u.s. postal service rebuffed (I believe tampered with inasmuch as your office could not locate same). This cover letter (9-13-10) is on the 3 disks with navigable hyperlinks to the subject files for ease of reference, including the files in the RICO action as indicated. (10-15-10) I spoke with Rose, FBI, ADIC Secretary, who indicates once again that your office has not received the aforesaid and which can reasonably be presumed to have been tampered with, and hence, a violation of the federal statute concerning same. (Ultimately delivered by UPS) ]

 

 

http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf       http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm        Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holders vows to target financial fraud  WP Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown.    America Is a Failed State Because It Wont Prosecute Financial Crime  Washingtons Blog / the grim economic reality   [  http://albertpeia.com/grimreality.htm           

CRIME STATS(u.s.No.1)

Rank  

Countries 

Amount 

 

# 1  

United States:

11,877,218 

 

# 2  

United Kingdom:

6,523,706 

 

# 3  

Germany:

6,507,394 

 

UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE...      ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims ' Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holders vows to target financial fraud  WP | Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown.        


THE OBAMA DECEPTION
  http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv    

 


http://www.albertpeia.com 

 

 

 

Sincerely and Regards,

 

Al Peia

 

 

http://www.albertpeia.com 

 

Stocks enjoy big gains Dow ends the day up 322 points and closes above 11,000 for the first time since last Wednesday.

 (Washington Post) [ Big gains for the insanes … based on … bad news, fraud, and b***s***? Read on: The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed!  Train Reading: The Stock Market Is (Criminally) Insane The Wall Street Journal , Ted Weisberg to Frank Motek 1070am could think of no reason for the market to be up (BAD NEWS: new home sales down, oil prices up - ‘China's manufacturing index showed a decline, the seventh straight month of declines for German manufacturing and the first decline in two years for European manufacturing activity, in u.s. a big miss on new home sales and a decline in the Richmond Fed's manufacturing index.’) with some prodding ultimately a begrudging mention of that meaningless fudge term ‘oversold’ which of course is no reason at all particularly since the market is substantially overvalued so take this as an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits because there’s much worse to come! So what’s changed of significance?Nothing! Absolutely nothing, yet a manipulated computer-programmed ( high frequency trading bots ) churn-and-earn suckers’ rally based on desperation, fraud and b***s*** alone to suck suckers in and keep suckers sucked in! ,  Fed Economists Predict A 15 Year Bear Market For Stocks Aug 23rd, 2011 News (BusinessInsider) — ‘The San Francisco Fed has come out with a research paper connecting the dots between the retiring baby boomers and stock prices. The thinking is that the boomers will divest themselves of stocks as they retire and eat into their savings.…These conclusions are just horrendous! The suggestion is that there is a 15-year bear market in front of us. Multiples will fall by 50%!!…“We do see it as something of a headwind as the economy is attempting to recover.” … These deep thinkers have it completely wrong. They think that the key to having a stronger economy is higher stock prices. So they spend all of their efforts dreaming up ways to keep the S&P ramping up. I think it is the exact other way around. If the economy were to be growing [ you see, that’s the problem in large part – the economy won’t really be growing (huge price increases / inflation for the illusion), among a multitude of other problems ], it is reasonable to assume that stock prices might rise. It is completely false to assume that attempts to jigger stocks higher will lead to a stronger economy [ This is true, but the writer ignores the criminal fraud factor as the raison d’etre for the ‘jiggering’.’ ]  ,  Dow:Gold Ratio and the Secular Bear Market Minyanville  Toby Connor ‘ … Stocks.. after.. bear market rally, will roll over and continue down into a final four-year cycle low..Depending on whether or not the Fed tries to fight the cleansing process, or Ben Bernanke tries to stop the bear market with another round of quantitative easing, stocks should either test or breach the March '09 lows. Either way I expect that 2012 will go down as one of the worst years in human history. Certainly in the same category as 1932, if not worse …’  ,  ‘american technology is horrendous and vastly overrated!’ ,  Famed economist predicts economic calamity in 2012. See the evidence.Newsmax  http://w3.newsmax.com/a/aftershockb/video.cfm?promo_code=CA79-1      50% unemployment, 90% stock market drop, 100% inflation. See the Evidence (Newsmax.com  ,   Accounting Gimmics Resurface as Growth Flounders at TheStreet ‘Rebekah Smith, director of financial advisory services at accounting and consulting firm GBQ consulting, says accounting tricks and schemes are likely to start unraveling as we head into 2012 and the lag effect catches up. "The typical accounting fraud goes on for about 18 to 26 months before it is uncovered. The frauds that took place in 2009 are not going to surface until later in 2011 or into 2012." ‘  ,  Morgan Stanley Biggest Welfare Recipient as Federal Reserve Lent Banks $1.2 Trillion During Financial Crisis Wall St. Cheat Sheet  ,    Social Security disability on verge of insolvency     ,  Welcome To The New Bear Market For Stocks  Forbes / Suttmeier ,  Dow/Gold Ratio Lowest Since 1987 Crash   Forbes /  Adrian Ash  ,   Ignore Buffett's Advice, Don't Buy Stocks Forbes /  Dohmen , The "Crimes" That Wrecked The Markets  Forbes / Lenzner  ,  Tech Leading Market Lower The Wall Street Journal  ,  Banks closed in Fla, Ga, Ill; 2011 total is 68   ,   No Recession Coming ... It's Already Here   Minyanville's T3 Daily Recap: Market Gives Back Weekend Gains Amid US Bank Woes at Minyanville’  ,Previous:8-18-11 Stocks rally off lows to suck suckers in and keep suckers sucked in on bad news (Jobless Claims, Inflation Rise More Than Expected CNBC) , fraud ( SEC destroyed documents, senator says    Crimes Wrecked The Markets    ), and b***s*** alone!  MKM Bracing For SPY To Drop 8% More; Nasdaq Nearing August Lows Barrons.com,  WHY NEW LOWS ARE LIKELY  Maierhofer, Is It 2008 Again? Looking at the Summer Crash of 2011 Gayed ‘A real bear market has begun …’ ,  Abandon Ship?[The USS Titanic] Yes, Because of These 5 Bearish Icebergs ... McGill ,  There's A Recession Coming According To The Data at Forbes  ,  HP, Dell hammered as tech-spending outlook darkens   JDSU, NetApp, disappointing figures, shares hit hard in after-hours trade   Dell braces investors for a bumpy road Dell makes a case on why it can better weather an upcoming storm  ,   S&P says sell Google's shares after Motorola deal  ,  STOCKS FALL AFTER FLOOD OF BAD NEWS: Here's What You Need To Know  Joe Weisenthal ,   Stocks Slip On Concern Over Europe's Debt, U.S. Data  ,  Watch Out: 2011 Looks A Lot Like The Market Top In 2007 Sean Hanlon Take A Lesson From 2007 And Sell Stocks Now at Forbes, [video] Trader: We Could Test 1120 Lows at TheStreet.com   In a Downtrend, Sell a Rally (Daily FX)     

 

 

 

http://www.albertpeia.com 

 

N.Y. bumped from foreclosure panel Iowa’s attorney general says N.Y. official “actively worked to undermine” group’s efforts in foreclosure negotiation with banks. (Washington Post) [ Yeah! No surprise here! Yet new jersey’s ‘representative’ would have been equally disingenuous in corruptly carry out his / her duties, so ‘doody-full’ are they, from there!  Sen. Chuck Grassley  “It doesn’t make sense that an agency responsible for investigations would want to get rid of potential evidence…’ [ Oh but it does make sense Sen. Grassley:   Report: SEC lawyer exposed FBI informant (WP) [ Clearly, the sec liar (sic – lawyer) is one of those typically with a ‘pre or post’ arrangement, whether implicit or explicit; you know, that ubiquitous ‘bribe thing’ in pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt, fallen  america. Indeed, the scenario typifies that national drain / sinkhole new york (new york / new jersey metro) where, for example, FBI informants were routinely exposed by ‘italians’ in the new york d.a.’s office over the objection of the FBI, and were promptly ‘dispatched’/assassinated / hit by mafia / organized crime [ this was documented with authority in the book ‘Goombata: The Improbable Rise and Fall of John Gotti and His Gang’ Cummings / Volkman  ] Details of Obama’s jobs plan emerge (Washington Post) [  Oh come on! Too little, too late for ‘wobama the b’ (for b***s***), the eternal campaign(er) … he’s got a ‘good rap’ … that rapper ‘wobama the b’ (for b***s***).  Really! He’s a total embarrassment out there on the campaign trail; and just as much an embarrassment for those who turn out to see him … maybe he’s somewhat of an allure as in a freak show. He’s a total joke! To be finally talking jobs and things just before the election having broken previous campaign promises in his failed role as ‘bush failure 3’. Even his pension is undeserved so much a fraud is he! Black caucus: Tired of making excuses for Obama [ They are not alone! ] Washington Examiner | A key member of the Congressional Black Caucus says they don’t pressure President Obama because he is loved by black voters.  Obama ‘Takes More Vacations Than Any Human Being I’ve Ever Seen’ Fox News | “Here we have a country that really is going to hell in a handbasket.” Bus Tour Bust: Obama’s Approval Plummets Back Into 30s, Says Gallup CNS News | Obama’s politically charged but taxpayer funded bus tour through the Midwest turned into a bust yesterday. Disapproval of Congress Hits All Time High of 84%

Drudgereport: BLACK CAUCUS ON OBAMA: 'WE'RE GETTING TIRED' [ Not as tired of wobama’s b***s*** / excuses as the ‘White Caucus’ and any other Caucus – but, don’t be taken in by their b***s***; they’ll ‘back the black’ every time, regardless!  ]New low of 26% approve of Obama on economy...
Inflation builds...
FOOD PRICES RISING...
UNEMPLOYMENT UP...
OBAMA TO LAY OUT JOBS PLAN -- AFTER VACATION...
'Takes More Vacations Than Any Human Being I've Ever Seen'...
Commiserates with jobless, then off to the Vineyard...

 

Even that italian, belafonte, isn’t buying ‘wobama brand(ed)’:

 

Drudgereport: HARRY BELAFONTE: Obama 'has failed'...
NOONAN: 'HE IS A LOSER'...  
FARRAKHAN: 'THAT'S A MURDERER IN THE WHITE HOUSE'...      

Most importantly, realize that if wobamas actions had not belied his words/campaign promises, the nations position, though still ominous, would have been substantially improved.

http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf       http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm        Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holders vows to target financial fraud  WP Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown.    America Is a Failed State Because It Wont Prosecute Financial Crime  Washingtons Blog / the grim economic reality   [  http://albertpeia.com/grimreality.htm           

CRIME STATS(u.s.No.1)

Rank  

Countries 

Amount 

 

# 1  

United States:

11,877,218 

 

# 2  

United Kingdom:

6,523,706 

 

# 3  

Germany:

6,507,394 

 

UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE...ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims '


THE OBAMA DECEPTION’  http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv    

 

 

http://www.albertpeia.com 

 

 

8-23-11 NEWS / TOPICS

 

 

The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed!  Train Reading: The Stock Market Is (Criminally) Insane The Wall Street Journal , Ted Weisberg to Frank Motek 1070am could think of no reason for the market to be up (BAD NEWS: new home sales down, oil prices up - China's manufacturing index showed a decline, the seventh straight month of declines for German manufacturing and the first decline in two years for European manufacturing activity, in u.s. a big miss on new home sales and a decline in the Richmond Fed's manufacturing index.) with some prodding ultimately a begrudging mention of that meaningless fudge term oversold which of course is no reason at all particularly since the market is substantially overvalued so take this as an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits because theres much worse to come! So whats changed of significance?Nothing! Absolutely nothing, yet a manipulated computer-programmed ( high frequency trading bots ) churn-and-earn suckers rally based on desperation, fraud and b***s*** alone to suck suckers in and keep suckers sucked in! ,  Fed Economists Predict A 15 Year Bear Market For Stocks Aug 23rd, 2011 News (BusinessInsider) The San Francisco Fed has come out with a research paper connecting the dots between the retiring baby boomers and stock prices. The thinking is that the boomers will divest themselves of stocks as they retire and eat into their savings.These conclusions are just horrendous! The suggestion is that there is a 15-year bear market in front of us. Multiples will fall by 50%!!…“We do see it as something of a headwind as the economy is attempting to recover. These deep thinkers have it completely wrong. They think that the key to having a stronger economy is higher stock prices. So they spend all of their efforts dreaming up ways to keep the S&P ramping up. I think it is the exact other way around. If the economy were to be growing [ you see, thats the problem in large part the economy wont really be growing (huge price increases / inflation for the illusion), among a multitude of other problems ], it is reasonable to assume that stock prices might rise. It is completely false to assume that attempts to jigger stocks higher will lead to a stronger economy [ This is true, but the writer ignores the criminal fraud factor as the raison detre for the jiggering. ]  ,  Dow:Gold Ratio and the Secular Bear Market Minyanville  Toby Connor Stocks.. after.. bear market rally, will roll over and continue down into a final four-year cycle low..Depending on whether or not the Fed tries to fight the cleansing process, or Ben Bernanke tries to stop the bear market with another round of quantitative easing, stocks should either test or breach the March '09 lows. Either way I expect that 2012 will go down as one of the worst years in human history. Certainly in the same category as 1932, if not worse …’  ,  american technology is horrendous and vastly overrated! ,  Famed economist predicts economic calamity in 2012. See the evidence.Newsmax  http://w3.newsmax.com/a/aftershockb/video.cfm?promo_code=CA79-1      50% unemployment, 90% stock market drop, 100% inflation. See the Evidence (Newsmax.com  ,   Accounting Gimmics Resurface as Growth Flounders at TheStreet Rebekah Smith, director of financial advisory services at accounting and consulting firm GBQ consulting, says accounting tricks and schemes are likely to start unraveling as we head into 2012 and the lag effect catches up. "The typical accounting fraud goes on for about 18 to 26 months before it is uncovered. The frauds that took place in 2009 are not going to surface until later in 2011 or into 2012."   ,  Morgan Stanley Biggest Welfare Recipient as Federal Reserve Lent Banks $1.2 Trillion During Financial Crisis Wall St. Cheat Sheet  ,    Social Security disability on verge of insolvency     ,  Welcome To The New Bear Market For Stocks  Forbes / Suttmeier ,  Dow/Gold Ratio Lowest Since 1987 Crash   Forbes /  Adrian Ash  ,   Ignore Buffett's Advice, Don't Buy Stocks Forbes /  Dohmen , The "Crimes" That Wrecked The Markets  Forbes / Lenzner  ,  Tech Leading Market Lower The Wall Street Journal  ,  Banks closed in Fla, Ga, Ill; 2011 total is 68   ,   No Recession Coming ... It's Already Here   Minyanville's T3 Daily Recap: Market Gives Back Weekend Gains Amid US Bank Woes at Minyanville  ,Previous:8-18-11 Stocks rally off lows to suck suckers in and keep suckers sucked in on bad news (Jobless Claims, Inflation Rise More Than Expected CNBC) , fraud ( SEC destroyed documents, senator says    Crimes Wrecked The Markets    ), and b***s*** alone!  MKM Bracing For SPY To Drop 8% More; Nasdaq Nearing August Lows Barrons.com,  WHY NEW LOWS ARE LIKELY  Maierhofer, Is It 2008 Again? Looking at the Summer Crash of 2011 Gayed A real bear market has begun …’ ,  Abandon Ship?[The USS Titanic] Yes, Because of These 5 Bearish Icebergs ... McGill ,  There's A Recession Coming According To The Data at Forbes  ,  HP, Dell hammered as tech-spending outlook darkens   JDSU, NetApp, disappointing figures, shares hit hard in after-hours trade   Dell braces investors for a bumpy road Dell makes a case on why it can better weather an upcoming storm  ,   S&P says sell Google's shares after Motorola deal  ,  STOCKS FALL AFTER FLOOD OF BAD NEWS: Here's What You Need To Know  Joe Weisenthal ,   Stocks Slip On Concern Over Europe's Debt, U.S. Data  ,  Watch Out: 2011 Looks A Lot Like The Market Top In 2007 Sean Hanlon Take A Lesson From 2007 And Sell Stocks Now at Forbes, [video] Trader: We Could Test 1120 Lows at TheStreet.com   In a Downtrend, Sell a Rally (Daily FX)     Latest: Economist Who Predicted Market Crash Warns of 2012 Aftershock. See More Here.    )   Five Reason Stocks Are Crashing, Tips to Prepare for Meltdown (Moneynews) Unthinkable Poised to Happen on Wall Street. See Disturbing Charts. (Newsmax.com)  US Recession Is Guaranteed: Expert CNBC.com  So whats changed of significance (other than previous full moon and consequent effects on the lunatic wall street frauds) Nothing! Absolutely nothing, yet a manipulated computer-programmed ( high frequency trading bots ) churn-and-earn suckers rally based on desperation, fraud and b***s*** alone (ie., backward looking, revisions, faked data, etc.) to keep suckers suckered, which makes for an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits since theres much, much worse to come!     Regulators close 64th U.S. bank this year , U.S. consumer sentiment grim but retail sales jump with gasoline prices up  ,  [$$] 'Junk' Bonds Point to Recession  , Stock Market Parallels to 2000 and 2008 Should Not Be Ignored   , How Low Will Stocks Go?   Michael Kahn, who writes the Getting Technical column for Barrons.com and the QuickTakes Pro blog, has long argued were in a secular (long-term) bear market, and he thinks the cyclical bull is over, too. Like Arbeter, he sees 1,010 to 1,050 as the next level of support for the S&P, and below that 930.  50% unemployment & 90% Dow crash also predicted. Newsmax   Tech up? Is this some kind of a joke? Absolute confirmation of dire prospects worldwide since american tech is horrendous.  (Newsmax.com) Robert Wiedemers new book, Aftershock: Protect Yourself and Profit in the Next Global Financial Meltdown, quickly is becoming the survival guide for the 21st century. And Newsmaxs eye-opening Aftershock Survival Summit video, with exclusive interviews and prophetic predictions, already has affected millions around the world but not without ruffling a few feathers.    [ The instant  video on the economic / financial collapse from Stansberry and Associates is so well researched  and succinctly presented  that Ive archived same on my website; also, because the facts and views presented comport with the facts and views Ive presented on my site which I believe to be correct. This is a must-view, must-see that I strongly recommend!    
The complete url:     http://www.albertpeia.com/stansberrysinvestmentadvisory.flv   http://www.albertpeia.com/stansberrysinvestmentadvisory.mp4    Written text of presentation (without pictures  / charts)]  [A lot of pre-election year obfuscation, manipulation but the debacle is already here:  Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
Dow will Fall to 3,800
4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the latest.
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40
60% from Todays Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010 and 2012).
   Dow 1000? Robert Prechter Thinks So      Prechter Reiterrates Call For Dow 1,000, Even As Surging Gold And Plunging Dollar Leave Much Credibility To Be Desired        Bulls Go to Extremes: Don't Buy the "Breakout", Sell It, Prechter Says     Russell: This Is One Of The Largest Tops In Stock Market History  My old friend, Bob Prechter, is talking about Dow 400. I used to think this was an absurd joke. I no longer think its a joke. The ultimate result will be a primary bear market shocking in duration and extent. …’     Forecasts from Dent, Napier, and then Prechter: Depression is Imminent The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to below 777 which was the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and quite likely drop below 400 at one or more times during the bear market.  [ 8 More Reasons Why You Should Be Deeply Concerned That The U.S. Government Has Lost Its AAA Credit Rating The Economic Collapse ‘…  #8 The U.S. national debt continues to get worse by the day.  Just check out what economics professor Laurence J. Kotlikoff recently told NPR.If you add up all the promises that have been made for spending obligations, including defense expenditures, and you subtract all the taxes that we expect to collect, the difference is $211 trillion. Thats the fiscal gap ..   Why You Shouldn't Buy Into This Plunge Forbes/O'NeilThe market is building momentum to the downside.]    Russell Napier is the author of the book Anatomy of the Bear, a professor at the Edinburgh Business School and a consultant to CLSA Ltd. which is one of the top research houses in Asia. Napiers research indicates (and I paraphrase) that: The S&P 500 will Decline to 400 by 2014 (the Dow 30 to 3800) The S&P 500 will then undergo a major crash that will see U.S. equity prices bottom at almost 50% below current levels (i.e. to 400 or less; the Dow 30 to 3800 or less) sometime around 2014 as Tobins q drops to 0.3 signaling the end of the bear market, as it has done at the end of the four largest U.S. market declines in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982. U.S. Treasury Sales Collapse Leading to End of U.S. Dollar as Reserve Currency Robert R. Prechter Jr. is author of a number of newsletters and books including Elliott Wave Principle (1978) in which he predicted the super bull market of the 1980s; At the Crest of the Tidal Wave A Forecast of the Great Bear Market (1995) in which he predicted a slow motion economic earthquake, brought about by a great asset mania, that would register 11 on the financial Richter scale causing a collapse of historic proportions; and Conquer the Crash: You can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression (2002) in which he described the economic cataclysm that we are just beginning to experience and advised how to position ones self financially during that period of time. Depression is Imminent The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to below 777 which was the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and quite likely drop below 400 at one or more times during the bear market.    Watch for fake govt data / reports owing to political desperation!  This an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits, particularly if you missed Tuesday or May, since theres much, much worse to come! Thursday, Aug.11, 2011: what changed from yesterday which warranted a more than 500 point plunge with paper stocks still over-valued? Well, some bad news labeled as better than expected 1) 7,000 fewer jobless claims than expected (just a little over 1% better even if you believe them I dont) 2) Cisco shows results better than expected 3) Record monthly trade deficit  [ What Recovery? Forbes we cant call this a recovery. Theres no reason to celebrate when a job report was better than expected. Why? Because the expectation was abysmal to begin with. Cisco Systems Incs quarterly results edged past Wall Streets scaled-back expectations ...They beat a low bar. A lot of it is coming from cost cutting, which we anticipated. In that sense its a relief, Joanna Makris of Mizuho Securities USA told Reuters. Cisco, which depends on government spending for about a fifth of its revenue, said in July it would cut 15 percent of its workforce and sell a set-top box factory in Mexico.. Cisco bulls may underestimate tough road ahead Randewich. ] Tuesday, Aug.9,2011: what changed from yesterday which warranted a more than 600 point plunge with paper stocks still over-valued and a 545 bounce off of afternoon lows? Nothing! Absolutely nothing, yet a manipulated computer-programmed churn-and-earn suckers rally based on fraud and b***s*** alone to keep suckers suckered, which makes for AN ESPECIALLY GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL / TAKE PROFITS SINCE THERES MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!  [ Is this some parallel universe where unfounded criticism is levied at S&P for the downgrade when theyve actually cut the pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt disunited states a break by not rating what america truly is; viz., junk status for the paper / liabilities / obligations that cannot and will not be paid (or the equivalent vis-à-vis what would be in worse than evermore worthless Weimar dollars or some other ponzi-like subterfuge, obfuscation). The amounts are insurmountable going forward. They point to Moodys and Fitch; yet, lets not kid ourselves, S&P is the 800 pound gorilla in this world among rating agencies and moodys, fitch have substantially diminished themselves as entities consistent with their mission and purpose and as well, their credibility. I mean, come on! Consider the pressure that was and continues to be applied. Moodys and fitch, quite frankly, folded. Chinas rating agency has already downgraded u.s. paper and theyre holding (huge amounts of that u.s. junk); and hence, against their own interest. Wake up! Wall Street closes worst week since '08 with wild day NEW YORK (Reuters) S&P on U.S. downgrade: Debt pact 'falls short' - Reuters  S&P downgrades US credit rating from AAA   S&P Shocks the U.S. with Credit Downgrade to AA+ from Prestigious AAA Rating  Wall St. Cheat Sheet    What Recovery? Forbes   ‘…we cant call this a recovery. Theres no reason to celebrate when a job report was better than expected. Why? Because the expectation was abysmal to begin with. And while were at it, we cant ignore increasing sovereign debt problems in Europe…’  Top 3 Reasons Markets Erased the Years Gains Wall St. Cheat Sheet  1) Japan and Europe 2) Unemployment.3) Capital goods - billions of dollars in lost revenue. Financial Crisis Phase II Is Ahead at Forbes Bert Dohmen  In late 2007, I wrote the book Prelude To Meltdown, predicting the global crisis that occurred the following year.  I now see a similar confluence of events that warns of phase II of the global crisis My work shows that the new recession has started.”… Over the past 33 years, we have called the start of every recession, often on the exact month, or within one month, of the official start as determined one year later by the official arbiter of recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) However, inflation is far understated for political reasons. Currently, the GDP deflator is 1.8%, which hardly reflects the true rise in prices. Therefore, what is counted as growth, is actually price increases. Actual inflation, according to free market economists who calculate inflation as it was done in 1980 before the politician re-engineered it, is now more than 11%. Using that to adjust GDP for inflation, would show that the economy is now in a very sharp contraction…’FLASHBACK HERE: Selling In May Is Very Good Advice This Year  Harding   Remember: Sell in May and Go Away and If Youve Not Sold by June, Youre a Loon! Albert Edwards: Thinks the Market Could Fall 70% [ Hes not alone!   PRECHTER: We're Still In A Massive Bear Market And Stocks Will Crash To New Lows     Stock Market: 4 Current Warning Signs  Navin ‘…1) The 5-year high in the level of insider corporate stock sales is telling. At 565 sells for every 1 buy, its never been higher. Yes, its normal for insiders to be selling some of their stocks so they can buy new yachts and some of this is pre-planned. But that ratio which has spiked recently is extraordinarily high, one might even say off-the-chart  previous‘…1) Job cuts. 2 ) ISM service-sector report. Mondays ISM manufacturing report contributed to market losses on Monday, but todays report, though equally negative, didnt quite have the same effect as markets began to level out this afternoon. The ISM service-sector index declined to 52.7% in July. The U.S. service sector accounts for three-fourths of all economic activity, and employs four out of every five U.S. workers , so a 0.5% decline speaks volumes about the state of economic recovery…’  Factory orders for June fell by 0.8% (just because they say the bad news isnt as bad as expected does not make such bad news rally material. Indeed, the huge ralleys based on now revised downward data never seem to retrace that fake data induced stock surge based thereon.    Service sector growth slowest since 2010    Moody's sets negative outlook on BNY, JPMorgan         S&P ends string of losses on tech rebound  Tech rebound? Is this some kind of a joke? Tech up today? Absolute confirmation of dire prospects worldwide since american tech is horrendous. Yet, sizzling childs play is the order of the day and credit still must be given to those [ie., Steve Jobs-Im truly glad he saved Apple, my first computer (apple IIc for word processing / data based records / forms / templates / data which I interfaced with an electric typewriter for letter quality)] who could (as he) identify such novelties as the biggest over-priced / over-valued sensations since the hoola hoop (hoopla hoops - which were pretty cheap and with some minor health benefits to boot).Take this run-up as a gift based on fraudulent wall street b***s*** alone and take this opportunity to sell / take profits / sell today if you missed in may and then go away! Nothing has been solved; maybe forestalled.  Rout spells trouble for Wall Street  / Moody's confirms U.S. rating at Aaa, outlook negative / Chinese rating agency cuts U.S. debt again / Minyanville's T3 Daily Recap: Signed Debt Deal No Cure for Sickly Market  / US auto industry uneasy after weak July sales / Fitch Unimpressed By Debt Deal, GDP; Markets Unimpressed By Fitch / US debt deal alone won't sustain AAA rating / Stocks now down for year as economic concerns grow AP    The Daily Market Report Aug 1st, 2011  PG  Relief? What Relief? http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum Late last night when party leaders and the President announced that they had reached a bipartisan deal that would allow the debt ceiling to be raised, gold dropped about 1%. Global stocks rallied in relief and briefly, ever so briefly, gold was out of favorCBO scores the package as accomplishing $2.1 trillion in spending cuts over the next 10-years, the CBO baseline also has the deficit rising $6.7 trillion over the same period. The premise apparently being that were working our way to actual cutting by cutting to slow the pace of the nations proliferate spending. In actuality and as evidenced below that CBO baseline may prove to be way too optimistic. What really lit an intraday fire under gold today was the big miss on US July ISM, which plunged to 50.9. The market was expecting a modest downtick to 55.0 from 55.3 in June The Truth About The Debt Deal: Its Pretty Much Meaningless Business Insider/ Come on! Who believes their pre-election year data, reports, b***s***? Theres desperation in the air and like never before! One commentator, Peter Shiff, to Frank Motek of 1070am Bus.Report references the sham in Washington; and regardless, points to default by way of inflation, further stating that the debt ceilings already been breached by borrowing. Moreover, he additionally states that default is inevitable by way of inflation; that the fed will be buying the evermore worthless american paper (bonds) and creating/printing evermore worthless american dollars; that theres been a quid pro quo with at least one of the 3 (S&P, Moodys, Fitch) federal licensed rating agencies, viz., of reaffirming the u.s. AAA rating in return for no prosecution surrounding their role in the S&P AAA rated worthless (fraudulent, mortgage-backed, derivative) paper securities (fraud) giving rise to the previous leg of this continuing, ongoing debacle / crisis. He finally goes on to recommend non-u.s., non-dollar denominated assets, precious metals, and alternate currencies. Initial unemployment claims rise to 418000 - Jul. 21, 2011 which bad news sparked wall street rally what total b***s***. No budget deal, celebrated Greek Plan DEFAULT! sounds like a plan!, backward looking earnings results riiiiight! Watch Out: 2011 Looks A Lot Like The Market Top In 2007 at Forbes  Sean Hanlon  / Deficits And Stimulus Only Delay The Inevitable Collapse Bob Chapman | America is insolvent and has been so for a long time. US Is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece: Gross When adding in all of the money owed to cover future liabilities in entitlement programs the US is actually in worse financial shape than Greece and other debt-laden European countries, Pimcos Bill Gross told CNBC Monday.  Maierhofer: USA INCOME STATEMENT:Total federal spending in 2010 amounted to $3.456 trillion. Total receipts added up to $2.162 trillion. USA Inc.'s 2010 deficit was $1.294 trillion.The 2011 federal budget is $3.7 trillion with a projected deficit of$1.6 trillion. USA BALANCE SHEET: Consensus estimates for unfunded obligations vary. Mary Meeker pegs the shortfall at $31 trillion, PIMCO's Bill Gross estimates the unreported debt to be $75 trillion, while other estimates exceed $100 trillion (these amounts are insurmountable) …’ Huge suckers rally to keep the suckers suckered in this market based upon backward looking data discounted multiple times to the upside (including the apple numbers as recently as last week on leaked expectations of better than expected, etc.), taxpayer funded QE results, and b***s*** alone. This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits since theres much, much worse to come!   IT'S GOING TO HURT 'FOR LONG TIME TO COME' [ Says tiny tim geithner thanks for the heads up tiny tim  God bless us everyone!  As if we didnt already know it / feel it! Dave's Daily  'If you can keep interest rates this low this long, its inevitable cheap financing can allow companies to start cobbling each other up. Further Ben's policies allow companies like IBM to sell bonds at 1% and buy back shares with the proceeds (total paper bubble-scam). POMO is occurring almost daily and Primary Dealers can buy back their shares and pay dividends with what essentially is taxpayer money-- Why The Dow Will Plunge To 7,000 By 24/7 Wall St.    S&P Poised For Dropoff, Says Initial Jobless Claims  Forbes / Maureen Farrell  ]




A Decade of Decline in Equity Markets Faisal Humayun [ This is a must read and explains how the market’s been artificially propped, the dow relative to hard assets, ie., gold (dow/gold ratio), has actually crashed 78%, and comparable prospects for the next decade, etc.. ‘…The Dow Jones Index was trading at 11,357 levels at the beginning of the year 2000. More than a decade later (as of beginning July 2011), the index is at 12582. Therefore, the index has gained 11% in the last ten years…’ Yet, the inflationary dollar (declining) debasement rate was 31%. (-31%) {See the inflation calculator infra – and that’s just the government (inflation) numbers … reality is much worse!} Meanwhile, the frauds on wall street are churnin’ and earnin’ like never before at lightning computerized speeds enabling the high-frequency trades that are commissioned in unprecedented large volumes; a big net negative in real economic terms.]  While Washington Fiddled The Economy Burned at Forbes [ Oh come on! Let’s get real here! The economy was already burning (see infra), Washington notwithstanding! Indeed, the frauds on wall street with those contraindicated paper stock computer programmed commissioned churn-and-earn rallies would love for you to think it’s Washington only {that aw shucks, coulda’ been clear sailin’ otherwise moment; but the reality is that things are far more dire financially and economically than their window-dressed scams would indicate, though washington’s no help, incompetent, unknowledgeable, and ineffectual as they are (although fraudulent wall street, aside from their consummate scammin’, is little better and probably overly relied upon and light in those very areas one would expect to find profiency; viz., finance and economics.) Most importantly, realize that if wobama’s actions had not belied his words/campaign promises, the nation’s position, though still ominous, would have been substantially improved.}  ] Check out this inflation calculator:   http://www.albertpeia.com/inflationcalculator.htm

 

 

Here’s a picture of obama voters / backers: http://www.albertpeia.com/wobamavoters.gif

 

 

Beneath the Market’s Swings, Some Real Cause for Worry  News  Jeff Cox August 11 (CNBC) — ‘So whether this equals, falls short of, or exceeds the financial crisis of 2008 hardly seems to matter—investors are afraid, very afraid, and the question as much as anything in the minds of many market pros will be what soothes that fear. Analyst Dick Bove at Rochdale Securities says he knows why: More restrictive capital requirements and near-zero interest rates set at the Federal Reserve [cnbc explains] that make lending neither easy nor lucrative, a trend that will make it difficult for the economy to grow. “If one thinks through these limitations it can be seen that banks must shrink their balance sheets and change their business patterns to maintain their profits. What they are unlikely to do is to expand their lending activities in order to grow the economy,” Bove wrote in a lengthy banking analysis Thursday.“However, the Federal Reserve is suggesting that the economy is unlikely to grow,” he wrote. “If the Fed is prescient, then banks are facing higher loan losses, lower loan volume, and reduced margins on a wide array of banking products. The outlook is not appealing.”“Even though the United States is able to both print and borrow money, it is as bankrupt as the Europeans,” Bove wrote. “Covering deficits and paying debt with borrowed funds, some of which is newly printed, does not constitute meeting debt service requirements.”…’

 

 


The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed
! Previous, full moon and fraudulent wall street, get this, rallies on not as bad as expected EU stress tests and better than expected google results but forget the dire consumer (recession level) consumer sentiment number ‘cause after all, consumer spending just a paltry 70% of GDP.  Think about this: short-lived Pavlov dog rally (the conditioned stimulus) on hopes for more welfare for wall street and some good results in communist China. This despite the previous failure of QE for everyone but the frauds on wall street and ultimately, though circumlocuted, at great taxpayer expense. Titans of capitalism? How ‘bout the biggest unprosecuted frauds in the world. Preposterous!  Roche 'The worst part of it  ...Obama, who vowed change, has done almost nothing to fix any of it and in fact continues most of the policies that helped get us here in the first place’  ‘INSIDE JOB’ Ferguson wins Oscar for Documentary on the unprosecuted massive extant fraud in the (many) TRILLIONS by the frauds on wall street ( and declares with oscar in hand that not one high level wall street exec has been prosecuted … despite ‘earning’ billions from the fraud )   I want just one person with courage enough to stand up and explain to all that these huge commissionable computerized trading volumes like never before are a net negative in a very big way … that’s a fact … that’s economic reality in real terms!   Trade deficit up, growth predictions by fed scaled down [ do you recall how many upside market points for the false, more positive growth projections by the ‘no-recession’ fed, then there’s also the costly, hyperinflationary failed QE hopes, more fed jawboning rallies the frauds on wall street off their lows to keep suckers suckered – they all belong in jail!   Housing Woes to Cause Recession in 2012, Says Gary Shilling - Peter Gorenstein  STOCKS BARELY FALL AFTER MOUNTAIN OF BAD NEWS: Here's What You Need To Know Business Insider Weisenthal Economic scenario far worse than expected (and in this pre-election year the reality is still far worse than reported), yet stocks still rallied off lows to keep suckers sucked in to this fraudulent market    Click here to see the new scariest jobs chart ever  http://www.businessinsider.com/details-from-the-awful-june-june-jobs-report-2011-7    >  See all 12 charts from St Louis Fed:  http://static8.businessinsider.com/image/4e1712edcadcbba25f030000-595-356/chart.jpg    Previous:Stocks rally on jersey-based, former Lautenberg ADP still paltry, better than expected 157,000 private jobs number and one’s got to wonder ‘who got paid’, one way or another, for the fudge. Then there’s the horrific ‘american tech’. Retail? The defacto bankrupt government’s probably buying with money they don’t have, at best; and, as with other data in these desperate pre-election-year times, plain false, falsified, fudged, spun. Previous day, all bad news … from eurozone (protugal, et als), to asia zone (china worse than expected), to america (where to begin, from defacto bankruptcy, to debased currency, to insurmountable debt / dervice, to pervasive corruption, etc.) … stocks rally on fraud and b***s*** alone. Previous, higher oil price rally, along with Netflix ‘technology rally’ … Don’t make me laugh! … Total desperation on wall street and in Washington … How pathetic! … Jobless claims at 428,000 much worse than expected; and, don’t forget, these are desperate ‘pre-election times’ when regardless of factual reality (ie., fake reports, data, as, ie., ‘wobama hometown’ corrupt chicago ISM is up as even their youth gangs are showing increased criminal activity which probably accounts for the rise; ie., meth, crack labs, etc.?) data / reports are fudged / faked / spun. Foreclosure, distressed sales up, at least on paper with contracts signed, so no surprise nor reason to cheer here, as markets worldwide jump on the american crazy train for a short-lived bounce as all problems remain. This is the same month end (and quarter, half) spurt / window dressing based on b***s*** alone to keep the suckers suckered and an especially great time to sell / take profits since there’s much worse to come! Talk about milking the greek crisis for the umpteenth time a so-called solution (and there are loads of greecy scenarios worldwide …  I don’t think so and neither does Schaeffer who says: ‘…even once such a package is passed it only buys time. Actually fixing the fiscal condition of Greece is not something that can be solved in a matter of weeks, or even months…‘ but it’s great press for the churn and earn and to keep the suckers suckered.  Technology rally? Defacto bankrupt american technology is horrendous but great sizzle for the new fraud as in the dotcom bust days. Then there’s the greasy b.s. new greecy b.s. factor. The rally into the close and the previous so-called (4 day) ‘rally’ was based on b***s*** alone to keep the suckers suckered and for ‘smarter money ‘ along with the frauds to sell into. This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come!    Selling In May Is Very Good Advice This Year  Harding   Remember: Sell in May and Go Away and If You’ve Not Sold by June, You’re a Loon! ‘ ‘Albert Edwards: Thinks the Market Could Fall 70%’ [ He’s not alone!   PRECHTER: We're Still In A Massive Bear Market And Stocks Will Crash To New Lows     Stock Market: 4 Current Warning Signs  Navin ‘…1) The 5-year high in the level of insider corporate stock sales is telling. At 565 sells for every 1 buy, it’s never been higher. Yes, it’s normal for insiders to be selling some of their stocks so they can buy new yachts and some of this is pre-planned. But that ratio — which has spiked recently — is extraordinarily high, one might even say off-the-chart.       Wall Street 'Vastly Underestimating' Risk of Debt Default  Forbes / Robert Lenzner   StreetTalk ‘ “Meet the Press” climaxed Sunday  with a startling market prognostication from David Brooks, conservative columnist for the NY Times. The risk of a debt default over the combustible issue of the Medicare deficit hangs over the course of the stock market. Buyers Beware!“I was up in Wall Street  this week,” Brooks said. “They’re vastly underestimating the source of piolitical risk here. We could have a major problem, I think, either this summer or the next couple years. And I’d be worried about investing too much in the market. That’s my financial advice.”…’   Another Financial Crisis Is On The Way, Mobius Says      Market Crash 6/30/11?Technical indicators suggest market collapse may begin by June 30th Dennis Slothower is one of the world’s leading technical analysts. He’s one of the few advisors whose readers completely avoided ALL losses during the disaster that was 2008. And now he’s issuing another dire warning. His technical indicators suggest that the market manipulation we’ve seen over the last several months is about to come to an end…and that means thousands of investors are about to get clobbered. This correction could begin as soon as June 30th– so it’s important that you take action now to prepare yourself. StealthStocksOnline.com        STOCKS HAVE BIG RALLY AFTER PILES OF UGLY NEWS: Here's What You need To Know    Harry Dent: “Major Crash” Coming for Stocks, Commodities Already Topping Out           24 Signs Of Economic Decline In America ‘The US is in the middle of a devastating long-term economic decline..’ ]  States face shortfall for retirees (WP)   Public workers’ retirement funds had a gap of $1.26 trillion at the end of fiscal 2009    Study: Affordable rentals scarce  (WP)      Poll: For Obama, low marks on Afghan war (WP)  Fuel prices cut into Obama popularity  (WP) They’ve used the contrived mideast turmoil and their wars to obfuscate and divert attention from their failure.    Davis ‘This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘  Dave's Daily  'If you can keep interest rates this low this long, its inevitable cheap financing can allow companies to start cobbling each other up. Further Ben's policies allow companies like IBM to sell bonds at 1% and buy back shares with the proceeds (total paper bubble-scam). POMO is occurring almost daily and Primary Dealers can buy back their shares and pay dividends with what essentially is taxpayer money-- Why The Dow Will Plunge To 7,000 By 24/7 Wall St.   S&P Poised For Dropoff, Says Initial Jobless Claims  Forbes / Maureen Farrell   

 

 

 

Take A Lesson From 2007 And Sell Stocks Now at Forbes, Sean Hanlon August has given new meaning to the dog days of summer as the broad equity market has retracted all year-to-date gains and dropped into negative territory, all within the first couple weeks.

As written in my previous Market Commentary on July 20, our research uncovered potentially dangerous activity in the equity markets that could lead to a break and high volatility.  We presented this in that Market Commentary by the chart in Figure 1 below.  Using our proprietary research methodologies, we elected to make a major tactical move on June 17.

That move reduced all equity and high-yield bond exposure, creating 50% cash or cash equivalent allocations across all portfolios. This defensive move was shown to be prudent as volatility erupted and considerable downside was experienced in equity markets in the first week of August, as shown in Figure 2.

Figure 1 (click image to enlarge.)

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/advisor/files/2011/08/11.jpg

With this heightened volatility, we were observant that this market behavior was eerily similar to market conditions in 2007. To elaborate on this point, lets compare the S&P 500 Index for 2007 vs. the first seven months of 2011.  As you can see below in Figure 2, 2007 experienced high volatility yet remained range-bound in an upward trend (represented by the overlaid black bands).

Figure 2 (click image to enlarge.)

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/advisor/files/2011/08/2.jpg

 

The first half of 2011 maintained a range-bound upward trend until finally breaking sharply to the downside in the first week of August.

Of course now everyone wants to know what happens next?  Our research has no special predictive power of what may happen now that the trend has been broken. Instead, what our research is telling us is to remain extremely cautious at this time.  We have since moved client portfolios to almost 100% money markets and/or cash equivalents in all accounts.  We do maintain some high quality bond positions.

You may think But I cant make any money in money markets, they pay nothing these days!  True enough, but there are many times in ones investing lifetime where the best investment is to simply maintain principal.  That principal amount will be able to potentially purchase more in the not too distant future.

A simple example is stocks.  On April 29 of this year, $1,340 purchased the equivalent of one S&P 500 Index share.  Today, to own those same companies that make up the S&P 500 Index, the cost is below $1,200, yet the same amount of dividends is being received.  In this period preserving principal has resulted in increased investment purchasing power, income and potentially increased return.

 

Related article: Watch Out: 2011 Looks A Lot Like The Market Top In 2007

 

 

 

[video] Trader: We Could Test 1120 Lows at TheStreet.com

 

 

There's A Recession Coming According To The Data at Forbes  The stock market peaked in April, and is behaving in the saame fashion it did in late 2007, when big troubles from real estate writedowns were spreading through the financial sector.

The most worrisome statistic this week was the Empire State Manufacturing indedx wehich was down from a minus 3.76 to a minus 7.7 a leading indicator of recession in the past. The new industrial orders index from New York remained well below zero at minus 7.8.

The Federal Reserve Board has promised to keep interest rates at zero until 2013 an admission that the economy is not expected to rebound for two years until the next President is in the White House. This policy step indicates the Fed does not believe the economy will recover either this year or next year. Never before has the centreal bank made such a policy declaration for as long a period as two years.

There were 1300 new lows in the market on August 8th another phenomenon that hasd not taken place since the great stagnation was triggered in 2008. Even though the market indexes made up all their lost ground, it appewars that investors are willing to delude themselves that  corporate profits will reemain at very high levels despite the period of austerity we are clearly entering.

The austerity required in Europe to deal with the sovereign debt crisis is likely to push Europe into a recession. This will impact US corporations dependent on important profits from Europe.

The corporate return on revenues has risen the past two years to a peak of 14% an unusually high level of profits that is not expected to continue.

Consumer savings are rising as household debt gets paid back. But, we are a long way from safety levels of savings in a high unemployment period. And the higherb the saavings rise so the lower the level of consumption will be.

Housing numbers were down 1.5% last month underscoring that the turnaround in housing is not close at hand.

 

 

Market's Swoon Should Be Your Wake Up Call

 

 

Watch Out: 2011 Looks A Lot Like The Market Top In 2007 Sean Hanlon:   Back on December 12, 2007 I wrote a market commentary that started as follows:

The equity markets have been very volatile this year, but also range bound.  A picture speaks a thousand words so all one needs to do is view the chart below of the S&P 500 Index to understand just how volatile and range bound things have been.  Specifically, since February 20, 2007, only nine and one half months or so ago, the S&P 500 Index has been down 5.86%, up 13.02%, down 9.43%, up 11.26%, down 10.09%, and now up 7.73% through 12/10/07 so far in this latest up leg!  All this in ONLY nine and one half months!

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/advisor/files/2011/07/market-commentary-1.jpg

History is repeating itself so far in 2011, which has been fraught with ups and downs in both international and domestic equity markets.  This is due to many things, including the considerable economic doubts and various countries debt situations. This uncertainty has translated into market performance with direct impacts on portfolio returns and more prominently in portfolio volatility. This volatility is best seen in the chart below of the S&P 500 Index beginning 1/1/11.

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/advisor/files/2011/07/market-commentary-2.jpg

2010 ended positivity and the momentum carried into the first two months of 2011 however the end of February began a series of events that led market returns on a whipsaw ride of ups and downs, resulting in the current universal mid-year views of market uncertainty.

What news was associated with this volatility? All the usual; crude oil prices, natural disasters, corporate earnings, politics, economic forecast revisions for both developed and emerging markets, the European debt situation, the United States debt situation and more to name just a few.

One thing is for certain; the current volatile, range bound market activity is difficult at best to profit from.  In this investing environment patience is the most important attribute.  I will be patient and will be careful until the trends are preferable.

Our strategy at Hanlon Investment Management is to attempt to minimize downside risk by exiting risk asset classes, such as equities, during periods of uncertainty, getting invested in more conservative asset classes, such as money markets and short-term bonds, and re-entering into risky asset classes when we identify them as attractive, when the trend is our friend and positive!

Having identified this volatility, in June we made defensive, tactical investment decisions that provide less exposure to these volatile, range bound markets and prepare us to re-enter the markets when they possess improved risk characteristics.

 

 

 

SEC may have destroyed documents, senator says 17 Aug 2011 The Securities and Exchange Commission may have destroyed documents and compromised enforcement case ...   Grassley: Agency may have got rid of Goldman, Madoff documents   Ronald D. Orol, MarketWatch WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) The Securities and Exchange Commission may have destroyed documents and compromised enforcement cases involving activity at large banks and hedge funds during the height of the financial crisis in 2008, according to allegations made by a lawmaker on Wednesday. From what Ive seen, it looks as if the SEC might have sanctioned some level of case-related document destruction, said Sen. Chuck Grassley, Republican of Iowa, in a letter to the agencys chairman, Mary Schapiro. Sen. Chuck Grassley  It doesnt make sense that an agency responsible for investigations would want to get rid of potential evidence. If these charges are true, the agency needs to explain why it destroyed documents, how many documents it destroyed over what timeframe, and to what extent its actions were consistent with the law. Agency staff destroyed over 9,000 files related to preliminary agency investigations, according to a letter sent in July to Grassley, the top Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee, and obtained by MarketWatch. The allegations were made by SEC enforcement attorney, Darcy Flynn, in a letter to Grassley. Flynn is a current employee, and according to the letter, received a bonus for his past years work. Flynn alleges the SEC destroyed files related to matters being examined in important cases such as Bernard Madoff and a $50 billion Ponzi scheme he operated as well as an investigation involving Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS +0.33%   trading in American International Group credit-default swaps in 2009. Flynn also alleged that the agency destroyed documents and information collected for preliminary investigations at Wells Fargo & Co. WFC +1.34% , Bank of America Corp. BAC +0.81% , Citigroup C +0.13%  , Credit Suisse CS +0.38%  , Deutsche Bank DB +0.79%  Morgan Stanley MS -0.06%  and the now-bankrupt Lehman Brothers. The letter goes into particular detail about Deutsche Bank, the former employer of current SEC enforcement chief Robert Khuzami as well as former enforcement chiefs Gary Lynch and Richard Walker…’

Sen. Chuck Grassley  It doesnt make sense that an agency responsible for investigations would want to get rid of potential evidence…’ [ Oh but it does make sense Sen. Grassley:   Report: SEC lawyer exposed FBI informant (WP) [ Clearly, the sec liar (sic lawyer) is one of those typically with a pre or post arrangement, whether implicit or explicit; you know, that ubiquitous bribe thing in pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt, fallen  america. Indeed, the scenario typifies that national drain / sinkhole new york (new york / new jersey metro) where, for example, FBI informants were routinely exposed by italians in the new york d.a.s office over the objection of the FBI, and were promptly dispatched/assassinated / hit by mafia / organized crime [ this was documented with authority in the book Goombata: The Improbable Rise and Fall of John Gotti and His Gang Cummings / Volkman  ]

 

 

TRAIN READING: COVER-UP  Mark Gongloff

Is the SEC covering up Wall Street crimes?
Matt Taibbi

The forex market is causing some companies to pull up stakes Heard on the Street

Resisting the urge to buy the dips Josh Brown

Why arent governments more afraid of a double-dip recession? The Atlantic

France deserves a downgrade at least as much as the US does Bethany McLean in Slate

Recent market volatility has historical precedent Mark Hulbert

Stop worrying about China not buying Treasurys, already FT Alphaville

Fed hawks at odds over their reasons for dissent Reuters

Why Rick Perry made a bid for the anti-Fed set  Slate

Maslows hierarchy of needs gets an update The Atlantic

How did so many people feel one small quake in Virginia?  The Atlantic

Philly Fed coincident indicators turning red Calculated Risk

Treasurys are priced for disaster Capital Spectator

Profit recession risks tick higher FT Alphaville

The rich can afford to pay more taxes Bruce Bartlett in Economix

 



 

Everything You Need to Know About the Latest Market Plunge [But were afraid to ask]  Minyanville Staff Aug 18, 2011  ‘After a rather benign start to the week, markets plunged on Thursday with the S&P 500 shedding 4.5% and the Nasdaq-100 falling nearly 5%. The main driver on the day was speculation European banks remain insufficiently capitalized. Gold jumped nearly 25 to a record high and Treasuries rallied. Among stock movers, Apple (AAPL) outperformed the indices but still dropped 3.7%, Microsoft (MSFT) also outperformed closing down just 2.2%, Bank of America (BAC) dropped 6% and Oracle (ORCL) fell 8.3%.
Below are this week's top Minyanville stories examining the state of the US and global markets.

Is It 2008 Again? Looking at the Summer Crash of 2011
A real bear market has begun, and bonds got it right as early as February that the biggest threat to the global economic system is deflation.
by Michael A. Gayed 

Dynamics of This Market Panic Ripple Though History
The 10-year anniversary of the 1929 high ties to the beginning of World War II on September 1st, 1939 when Hitler invaded Poland and France declared war on Germany.
by Jeffrey Cooper 

Are Gold and S&P 500 Behaving Logically or Irrationally?
Unfortunately Mr. Market rarely embarks upon the logical until he has convinced enough market participants to behave irrationally.
by J. W. Jones 


Random Thoughts: Fed Dissention and Financial Market Fatigue
The world's wildest reality show continues.
by Todd Harrison

Handicapping the Global Economic Recovery
The obvious question must be begged: where do we go from here?
by Todd Harrison 

Coming in October: Next Major Price Cycle Low
A major price cycle on the daily S&P 500 chart, which shows reliability in bottoming about every 15.5 months, is due for its next low on or about October 31.
by Michael Paulenoff 

Volume Trends Suggest Worst Is Not Over for Stocks
When the market rallies hard after a nasty decline, one of the first things that can determine whether the rally's a keeper or not is volume. Here's why.
by Tim Thielen

The Sign of the Bear

When the quarterly turns down, the normal expectation is for the market to carve out a low soon, in terms of time and price -- not to waterfall.
by Jeffrey Cooper

Economy Showing Signs of Life, but Not for Long

We're on the brink of a nice little bump from the data coming in, but on the whole, a 1930s-style depression seems to be on track.
by MoneyShow.com

Wall of Worry Keeps Rising on Europe's Credit Crisis Fears

To make matters worse, politicians in the world's crisis-free countries are on summer vacation.
by Lloyd Khaner

Why Is Everyone Bullish on the US?
Wall Street will always think positively of the market, but the facts are pointing to a bearish phase.
by Gary Kaltbaum

Five Things You Need to Know: Asymmetric Economy Increasingly Untenable and Unstable
This situation cannot continue without adjustment.
by Kevin Depew

Fed's Easing Policy Means Worse Living Through Convexity
As the Fed removes interest rate risk through stealth QE3, it introduces other risks, distorting incentives for investing and weakening the economy in the long term.
by Professor Pinch

Are US Markets Facing the Abyss?

The vast majority of technicals are indicating a new bear leg.
by Jeffrey Cooper ‘

 

 

 

Dow Tumbles on New Worries About Same Old Issues - Aaron Task

Who’s Worse: U.S. Banks or Bernie Madoff? - Stacy Curtin

 



 


WHY NEW LOWS ARE LIKELY   Simon Maierhofer, August 18, 2011  Last Sunday's (August 14) ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter update listed 5 reasons why new lows are likely. Here they are:

HISTORIC REVERSAL

We've been expecting a major market top in the S&P 500 (SNP: ^GSPC), Dow Jones Industrials (DJI: ^DJI) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC). The April 3 ETF Profit Strategy update identified the ideal target range for a major top to be 1,369 - 1,382. The chart below was featured in the same update.

It outlines a top around 1,370 followed by an initial decline to about 1,230 (happened in June), followed by a rally (happened in July), followed by a steep decline.

DEATH CROSS

The death cross is one of the most talked about technical events, that's why I don't put too much stock in it. However, there are two interesting facts about previous death crosses.

The 2000 and 2007 death cross occurred about three days before the S&P embarked on its next leg down. The 2010 death cross was actually a buy signal. However, it occurred after the S&P and DJIA bounced off a multi-year trend line. This time the trend line was broken so a more bearish interpretation of the death cross is appropriate.

                               https://www.etfguide.com/images/PDNewsletter_Images/5%20-%20April%203%20TF.jpg  

SEASONALITY

August, September, and October is the most bearish stretch of the year. September and October sport negative performance even in the pre-election year.

SENTIMENT

From S&P 1,370 on May 2 to S&P 1,258 on June 16, the S&P shed 112 points and sentiment measured by Investors Intelligence (II) and the American Association for Individual Investors (AAII) turned deeply bearish (only 37% II bulls). The June 16 ETF Profit Strategy update took that as a queue to buy (long positions were closed at S&P 1,340).

From S&P 1,353 on July 7 to S&P 1,102 on August 9 the S&P lost 251 points, yet the II sentiment poll registered the second most bullish reading since the first week of May (47.3% II bulls). AAII and II polls are often considered the 'dumb money.' If the 'dumb money' views last Wednesday's low as a buying opportunity, the 'smart money' should be suspicious.

VIX PATTERN

If you have the charting capabilities, take a moment and plot the VIX (Chicago Options: ^VIX) against the S&P for the months of September - November 2008 and April - July 2010. If you don't have the time you may simply look at the chart below.

                                https://www.etfguide.com/images/PDNewsletter_Images/yahoo%20-%20vix%20pattern.gif  

What we've seen in 2008 and 2010 is that a VIX peak did not coincide with the S&P bottom. The S&P bottom actually occurred against a lower VIX reading. If this pattern continues, we will see lower lows.

The August 14 ETF Profit Strategy update includes a detailed analysis of the VIX pattern.

THE SCRIPT

Via more or less accidental chart surfing I found a striking resemblance between the 2007 market top and the May 2011 top.  This moved me to state in the July 17 Profit Strategy update that:

'There is a similar trend line and a triple top above the trend line. A break below that trend line could be a precursor of bad things. Next week the trend line will be at about 1,262.' The S&P sliced through that trend line on August 4 and fell an additional 12% within the next four days.

The August 7 Profit Strategy update revisited that script and concluded this: 'We now have a rough script; let's see how much lip the actors will add during the live performance (I.e. S&P downgrade). 

The two main things I have taken away from the 2007 script are:

1) There will be a new low.

2) There will be a powerful counter trend rally to around 1,xxx (reserved for subscribers).'

THE VERDICT

We got the new low and we got a rather powerful rally. Now the question is, how long will the low last and how high will stocks rally?

The script suggests there will be another low. The VIX pattern suggests there should be another price low. Seasonality suggests that there's some headwind on the way up. Sentiment readings suggest we should be suspicious of any rally. The death cross also suggests lower prices.

SUMMARY

There were a number of good reasons to expect new lows on Sunday. Yesterday's ETF Profit Strategy update recommended to go short as soon as the S&P breaks below 1,373. This happened within the first few minutes of trading today. Now it's time to let the script play out…’

S&P Triggers 200-day MA Death Cross - What Does this Mean? ETFguide.com

Is This a New Bear Market? The Chart That Tells The Whole Story ETFguide.com

Why The Worst May Be Yet To Come ETFguide.com

 

 

 

Abandon Ship?[The USS Titanic] Yes, Because of These 5 Bearish Icebergs | iPhone 2 (robot)... By Michael McGill: August 18, 2011 is a day that has handed out some of the worst economic news since a few days in the 2008 financial crisis, and it has the Dow Jones Industrial Average down big time. The reasons keep piling up to turn bearish and pile into safer investments. Here are 5 reasons showing that investors need to be on the watch out for choppy waters tsunami type waves ahead: Homes Sales Drop 3.5% in July This marks the weakest sales (4.67 million) figure in 14 years, even beating last years disappointing mark of 4.91 million. This is despite the average rate of a 30-year fixed mortgage coming in at its lowest level on record (4.15) this week. This is data to fight the ever increasing hope that home owners have of increasing the value of their homes. Jobless Claims Rise 9,000 Last week investors were looking for Complete Story »

·        Homes Sales Drop 3.5% in July

·        Jobless Claims Rise 9,000

·        Treasuries Hitting Record Highs (record low yields)

·        Inflation at the Consumer Level Rose to 0.5% in July

·        World GDP Growth Slowdown - …’

 

 

 

Dow/Gold Ratio Lowest Since 1987 Crash   Forbes   Adrian Ash Todays gold buyers might still get to look early birds as this depression wears on GROWTH or defensestocks or gold? Intra-day noise aside in summer 2011, Mr.Markets choice looks plain.

The Dow/Gold Ratio a measure of the U.S. stock markets valuation in ounces of gold has sunk as equities have plunged but gold prices have jumped so far this summer.

Dropping through 6.0 ahead of Fridays New York opening, the Dow/Gold Ratio hasnt been this low since early 1989, back when world equity markets were recovering from the Great Crash of Black Monday 1987.

http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/files/DowGoldviii11.png

That slump itself had taken the Dow/Gold Ratio all the way down to 3.6, with gold prices rising to nearly $500 per ounce as the Wall Street index sank to 1776 points. Growth, of course, was only taking a pause in late 1987 a quick breather before the real race to perfection of the late 1990s. Today, in contrast, the Dow/Gold Ratio could still go a lot further down. Or so says history.

Trading a little over its century-long average of 10.0 today, the ratio bottomed during the 1930s Great Depression at just below 2.0 ounces of gold for one Dow unit. At the nadir of the next global depression the inflationary depression of the early 1980s the Dow/Gold Ratio sank even lower, down to 1.0.

Whatever flavor of depression weve got at the start of this decade and it is a depression, as Western jobs data continue to show and as the Dow/Gold yardstick will confirm if it goes much lower (keep an eye on the underperformance of gold mining equities, too) a growing flow of private savings is choosing defense in gold bullion rather than choosing business-risk in listed stocks.

That choice might sound self-fulfilling if you work in psychiatry or government, a kind of clinical disorder open to curing with medication, zero interest rates or perhaps a third round of quantitative easing most likely aimed at risk assets, we guess, rather than the risk free Treasury bonds targeted by QE1 and QE2 and which institutional investors are all-too keen to hold anyway.

So far, however, investors choosing to buy gold only account for a tiny portion of the money fleeing equities.

From here to a true depression low in Dow/Gold (if such a level is reached), todays gold buyers will need to find many more friends. Theyd also look early-birds compared with the rush out of stocks and into gold needed to reach that 2.0 or 1.0 mark.

 

The Great Stocks Vs. Gold Round Trip  Aug 19th, 2011 News (BusinessInsider) — ‘ When priced in gold stocks have now returned to where they were at the market’s low-point, back in 2009. Actually, we’re even worse now.  http://www.usagold.com/pete/newsviews/20110819GoldSPratio.jpg   PG View: In 1965 De Gaulle called for a return to an “indisputable monetary base,” one that “does not bear the mark of any particular country.” He of course was referring to gold. As was pointed out in a Forbes article early in the week on the 40th anniversary of President Nixon closing the gold window, over the last four thousand years, the only period in which humanity has not consistently based its currency in metal, specifically gold, is the last forty.” And look what that has wrought…’


Ignore Buffett's Advice, Don't Buy Stocks at Forbes Bert Dohmen [ Yeah this is really good advice. As a shill for fraudulent wall street, they may have given him some stellar performances and cash to boot; but, the homespun bumpkin senile buffets analytical abilities, if ever really extant, have certainly passed the point of no return. You may recall how the clintons, with a mere $1,000 or so, were revealed as commodities trading wizards, but as written up in the Wall Street Journal someone was giving them money. In fairness, that they were singled out (was) is a bit arbitrary inasmuch as thats going on all the time on wall street, and now with greater precision owing to greater computer programming capabilities, to everyone elses detriment. Remember, in a manner of speaking, there are two sides to every trade, viz., winner and loser (in relative terms).] The markets plunged going into August 8. On that day, the DJI closed with a loss of 629 points. My indicators signaled that a brief bounce would commence the next day. According to the charts, the first target for the S&P 500 was 1205. The target was hit exactly a few days later. That was followed by a renewed plunge.

I have been looking for a serious crisis to start in September. It appears that we have seen the prelude for that. The big smart money has been preparing for the past five months.You can see the distribution pattern on the charts since mid-February. The rush to the exits is now accelerating and the smart money has been selling short in large amounts.

The extreme bullish sentiment that prevailed until the latest plunge was first replaced by complacency, then by concern. However, the fear stage is still missing, except at hedge funds that were forced to sell because of margin calls. In fact, during the severe plunge in the first week of August, investment investors became even more bullish according to Investorsintelligence.com. That is not good for the markets.

The market negatives are increasing in numbers. The IPO window is now shut. There are signs that credit is once again vanishing. Loans are being called in, some companies appear to have difficulties rolling over their Commercial Paper, junk bonds yields are soaring, European banks may stop lending to each other, and the European crisis is spreading out across the globe. Its my view that this will cause another credit crisis, just as in 2008.

Whats worse is that contrary to 2008, the big players learned to read the signs from their 2008 mistakes. They are now wide awake, although in the media, their minions still repeat the same bullish fairy tale. This means that this crisis could develop much faster than the last one. (Read my book, Financial Apocalypse, which is the 2008 roadmap, one which can be used very well for what is now happening.)

The words possible recession suddenly is being mentioned a lot in the media, although economists still strongly deny that possibility. Our rule is that the stronger their denials, the more certain and the deeper the recession will be. In fact, I declared in our May 9 issue of the Wellington Letter that the recession had started.

Morgan Stanley lowered its global GDP growth forecasts for 2012 from 4.5% to 3.8%. My forecast is for 1%-2% or less. It would be negative growth except for the fudged inflation numbers.

The European politicians are not any smarter than those in the U.S. Merkel and Sarkozy had a meeting in Paris and did nothing. That day I called the outcome Disastrous for the markets. It took the markets a day to digest the consequences and then the selling avalanche started. Many of the markets in Europe, led by the banks stocks, went into virtual free falls, losing from 4%-7% in one day. Such losses indicate an approaching crisis.

Now we see some of the well-known Wall Street figures appearing in the media, telling investors all the reasons why stocks are a good buy. One appeared with a long list of bullish factors. Well, that list didnt prevent the global stock market from losing an incredible $6 trillion over the past several weeks. He did the same cheerleading on national TV in 2007 before investors lost 50% of their wealth.

Warren Buffett is also once again the cheerleader saying he is buying stocks. He did that in 2007-2008 as well, and then the meltdown started later in 2008.

I would not fall for this self-serving advice. Words cannot rescind a recession that we already have, it cannot stop the insolvency of entire countries in Europe, it cant change the fact that major profit downgrades will appear soon, and it cant stop the China crisis that is now starting.

Gold is soaring, but the mining stocks look terribly weak. There is great danger now with the gold stocks getting hit hard by less developed countries, including South Africa, to nationalize gold mines. This is too lucrative for them to resist.

I would get out of all money market funds unless they are U.S. government only.  The MMFs have big exposure to European banks. We believe that lending between banks in Europe may seize, which means that the whole structure will start shaking. You will start hearing the word contagion.

In my opinion, the danger period is approaching. What we have seen until now is just a preview. The main feature is likely to be worse.

Bert Dohmen is editor of Bert Dohmens Wellington Letter and author of Prelude To Meltdown (2007) and Financial Apocalypse (2011).




The "Crimes" That Wrecked The Markets  Forbes / Robert Lenzner CNNs anchor in London, Richard Quest, raised the issue squarely today about trying to explain the crimes that have created this failure to recover from the 2008 recession and the fear of another  downturn in the economy that could wipe out many of the gains we have achieved. Quest, of course, did not mean felonies or violations of the law that would land people in prison. I think he meant crimes of bad policy, crimes of financial illiteracy, crimes of stupidity, crimes of poor leadership.

So, heres my attempt to sum up my answer to Quest.

The powers-that-be saved  the Masters of the Universe on Wall Street by using trillions of loans, investments and guarantees that sent the signal that Finance was the nations Number One Priority.  This historic gift to finance meant that the growing disparity between the super-rich and the middle class would continue to widen, without anyone of our top policy gurus suggesting it was splitting our nation. Some academics even worry about the crime of pushing the middle class into poverty.

Nevertheless, there was no bold strategy left to help those out of work. It was a crime that the stimulus program did nothing to create any jobs in the private sector. Obamas economic adviser in 2009 , Larry Summers, was dead set against a make-work program to put the nations skilled construction workers busy on repairing  the rusting infrastructure he finds distasteful at airports and railroad stations. Now, we are going to be given the sop of an infrastructure bank that couldnt possibly be in place for years, if ever.

No question the handling  of the debt limit debacle was  crime of poor planning, no overall shred strategy and trying to effect a master plan for $4  trillion cuts with only days to go before the August 2nd deadline. Keystone Cops,  whatever you wish to call it caused a loss of confidence in the nations politicians; a kind of virtual crime on the public who deserved better. Much better. This entire episode removed the foundations to rational expectations for the stock market and threw the nation into a madhouse of volatility and confusion.

I dont know what to call the lapse in the markets faith in paper money and the more-or-less steady rise in the price of gold from $850 an ounce 3 years ago to well over $1800 today.  There is no other stock, bond or commodity you could have purchased that had this magnificent performance. Well, maybe the shares of Apple, and some global commodity producers.

Moreover, it was a crime to do nothing about the obscene bonuses taken by the Masters of the Universe who only were able to pay themselves in this way because of the federal bailout. No one has tried to  get back the fortunes taken away by Lehmans Richard Fuld,  Countrywide Credits Angelo Mozilloor either of the Merrill Lynch CEOs, who helped destroy their iconic firm. Now theres a crime.

Then, theres the  SECs unwillingness to reinstitute the uptick on short sales of stock so that hedge funds and other speculators could not trigger sharp sell-offs in the stock market If you had this uptick rule back, every short seller would have to wait for a transaction at a higher price to  sell short rather than the libertarian crime that allows them to pound a stock lower to make sure-thing profits. Its a crime short sellers are able to shoot ducks in a barrel. Shocking lack of fairness. No wonder Aunt Sadie is fleeing.

No doubt there were crimes committed in the week of volatility, with gyrations that scared the public. These movements up and down were caused by the high frequency trading by computers owned by hedge funds who are not investors but in-and-out traders several times a day and who have no regard for fundamental values.  These Masters Of  The Universe have the ultimate power in American society because of their political contributions and lobbying.

I believe Obamas health plan to be a crime because it was a sellout to the 5 giant health insurance firms that were given 4 years clear and free to raise their premiums without interference. It was a crime because Obama was told by leading Senators it was a terrible sellout of the citizenry.

I dont know what to call the bankruptcy of fiscal and monetary policy.  In some existential sense it is a crime that we have run out of  fiscal and monetary ammunition to turn this  collapsing shock treatment around. It is a crime that 300 million people will be looking for Ben Bernanke, Fed Chairman, to pull a rabbit out of a hat in Jackson, Wyoming next week, when central bankers are meeting.  QE2 came from last years meeting but it created no jobs.

The same will be true after Labor Day when the much-ballyhooed Obama  speech on jobs is coming. I fear expectations are going to be terribly disappointed. Expect  rhetoric as in We have always been a Triple A nation and we always will be Triple A. That was a crime of speaking mush, when 300 million people know better, and wanted to hear something meaningful. Not to have bold, kick-ass leadership at a time of crisis is a sad sort of a crime. 



Accounting Gimmics Resurface as Growth Flounders at TheStreet ‘-- Accounting gimmicks -- once the staple of the boom-boom stock market -- are on the rise as companies attempt to convince analysts and investors that they are profitable despite a sluggish economy, according to industry watchers. Accounting techniques of Groupon and Zynga were under the spotlight recently, with the Securities and Exchange Commission instructing both companies to adhere to more stricter and conventional accounting standards, causing them to amend their IPO offer documents.

The creative metrics in the IPO documents of recent social-media IPOs are reminiscent of the dot-com bubble when stocks were valued on metrics like "eyeballs", while fundamentals like revenues and profits were ignored.

 

Rebekah Smith, director of financial advisory services at accounting and consulting firm GBQ consulting, says accounting tricks and schemes are likely to start unraveling as we head into 2012 and the lag effect catches up. "The typical accounting fraud goes on for about 18 to 26 months before it is uncovered. The frauds that took place in 2009 are not going to surface until later in 2011 or into 2012."

 

Financial statement fraud like the kind that took place at Enron are rare. The Association of Certified Fraud Examiners estimates that such manipulation accounts for only 4.8% of total fraud cases, although it causes the most financial damage, with the median loss being more than $4 million.

 

But accounting gimmicks that focus on non-GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) measures are rampant and they can be misleading.

Groupon, for instance, claimed that the marketing expenses incurred to acquire customers were "one-time investments" and hence they should be excluded from the calculations of operating income.

By that metric the company made an operating profit at $81.6 million in the first quarter of 2011, as opposed to an operating loss of $113.9 million under traditional accounting standards.

 

However, analysts were quick to point out the metric was absurd. "If you are going to capitalize acquisition costs, the onus is on you to show proof that acquired customers stay as customers (and actually buy products for many years)," Aswath Damodaran, Professor of Finance at Stern School of Business and a reputed author of textbooks on valuation, wrote in a blog post.

 

"With strong competition from other online coupon based companies (like LivingSocial), it is entirely possible that customers once acquired, are fickle and move on... If that is the case, the acquisition cost has a very short amortizable life and begins to look more like an operating expense," he wrote.

 

Zynga issued a restatement of its second quarter results saying it did not hew to accounting standards in the way it estimates how long people play its video games. That had the effect of understating revenues during the second quarter. While the impact of the Zynga's restatement itself was not substantial, it highlighted the murky accounting involved when it comes to new business models.  "There is a new market of publicly traded companies with business models that open more room for interpretation on how revenues and costs should be treated. We do see some aggressive accounting techniques" says Dan Mahoney, director of research at the Center for Financial Research and Analysis, a unit of MSCI that specializes in forensic accounting.

Smith of GBQ Consulting says there is a greater risk of financial statement manipulation at such new-age businesses. "We have a lot of new business models and people are still trying to understand how the finances of these companies work," she said. "Companies get to decide what to tell them[investors] on how their industry works. They decide what the metrics should be."

While in a traditional sector an astute analyst might call a company's bluff, it is harder when you don't have history as a guide. "We don't have a typical 10-year history. As a financial professional, you can't make a conclusion on what the financial metrics should look like," says Smith.

Mahoney at CFRA says companies with high valuations are also ripe for these sort of gimmicks, as they are under pressure to sustain valuations.

While in a traditional sector an astute analyst might call a company's bluff, it is harder when you don't have history as a guide. "We don't have a typical 10-year history. As a financial professional, you can't make a conclusion on what the financial metrics should look like," says Smith.

Netflix(NFLX) has been criticized in the past for its calculation of subscriber churn rate, which looks at the number of cancellations as a proportion of subscribers. Netflix's method has the effect of overstating the subscriber base, thus making the churn rate seem lower.

Analysts have over time learned to adjust for this inconsistency. And as it turns out, the movie rental firm has drastically limited the metrics it is willing to provide , saying that in 2012 it will no longer report churn, gross subscriber additions and subscriber acquisition costs.

Problem solved.

Stern's Damodaran says companies resort to these tricks because the market analysts simplistically assign multiples to a profit metric. All companies have to do is "make a change that affects earnings and you can change the valuation," he says. "Investors need to understand what Groupon's business model is, what their potential market is, who are they going up against."

--Written by Shanthi Bharatwaj in New York

>To contact the writer of this article, click here: Shanthi Bharatwaj.



Morgan Stanley Biggest Welfare Recipient as Federal Reserve Lent Banks $1.2 Trillion During Financial CrisisWall St. Cheat Sheet



Dow:Gold Ratio and the Secular Bear Market at Minyanville  Toby Connor Aug 23, 2011 ‘However low the risk, large potential trades are now in the stock market, not in playing chicken with the gold parabola.

 As I have been warning investors for many months, stocks have now entered stage III of the secular bear market. Gold, on the other hand, is now in the final parabolic phase of a 2.5 year C wave advance.

My best guess was that we would see a Dow:Gold ratio of between 5-6 before this C-wave ended. The ratio was at 5.71 as of today. I think we may still have a little further to go on the downside for stocks and a little further upside in gold. So it's entirely possible that we could see a Dow gold ratio of 1:5 before the trends reverse.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/File/August11/tobyc8231.JPG
Click to enlarge

However low the risk, large potential trades are now in the stock market, not in playing chicken with the gold parabola.

Cyclically the stock market is now in the middle of the timing band for an intermediate bottom. Presumably a sharp bear market rally in stocks will trigger a regression to the mean, profit-taking event in the precious metals market (the D-wave).

D-waves almost always test, and sometimes marginally penetrate, the 200-day moving average. I've illustrated in the chart above a rough guess as to where I expect the countertrend rally in stocks and the D-wave correction in gold to retrace.

Keep in mind that the fundamentals for gold have not changed. A D-wave is simply a profit-taking event triggered by an unsustainable parabolic rally. It has nothing to do with fundamentals. Once the D-wave has run its course, gold will enter a sharp snapback rally (the A-wave), after which it should consolidate for the remainder of the bear market in stocks.

Stocks, on the other hand, after what should be a very convincing bear market rally, will roll over and continue down into a final four-year cycle low, probably in the late summer or early fall of 2012.

Depending on whether or not the Fed tries to fight the cleansing process, or Ben Bernanke tries to stop the bear market with another round of quantitative easing, stocks should either test or breach the March '09 lows.

Either way I expect that 2012 will go down as one of the worst years in human history. Certainly in the same category as 1932, if not worse
…’

 

Is the Market Forecasting War?   { Kind of a large dart board in terms of educated guessing in light of the perma-war bent of these perma-war bent nations; viz., ie., u.s., israel, europe, etc.. }  [ If so, and if this writers correct, all natos and americas misguided actions in the Mideast will be viewed as an attempt to weaken Arab nations for the benefit of war-mongering israel and will never be forgotten as such, to the substantial detriment of the dying so-called western alliance. ]



3 Reasons Markets Were Up as Dow Spikes Despite Earthquake  Wall St. Cheat Sheet  August 23, 2011, ‘Markets closed down (sic up) on Wall Street today: Dow +2.92% , S&P +3.41% , Nasdaq +4.29% , Oil +2.10% , Gold -3.36% .

On the commodities front, Oil climbed to $86.19 a barrel. Precious metals were down, with Gold falling to $1,828.30 an ounce and Silver falling 3.56% to $41.82 an ounce.

Todays markets were down (sic up) because:

1) New home sales. This morning the U.S. Department of Commerce released their new home sales data for July 2011, which had sales continuing to decline last month. With the housing market flooded by cheap foreclosure properties, new homes are facing too much competition and builders are hesitant to start new projects. And as long as the unemployment rate remains high, the high level of foreclosures will continue to dampen new home sales.

2) Banks. The markets had a shaky start this morning, but news from the FDIC that the number of banks on its Problem List declined last quarter for the first time since the third quarter of 2006. With the European sovereign debt crisis and new capital requirements, banks have been under a lot of stress lately, which has been stressing out investors afraid of another financial meltdown, but the FDICs news calmed those fears with a report that showed banks to be recovering. Unsurprisingly, the bank sector led todays gains, with JPMorgan , Citigroup , Barclays , and Wells Fargo leading sector gains. Bank of America remained in trouble as questions over capitalization remain.

3) Oil. Todays surge in the price of oil, which climbed more than 2%, gave the energy sector a boost, with Exxon Mobil , Chevron , Halliburton , and ConocoPhillips all tacking on an extra 2% to 5% to their share prices. The energy sector climbed 3.58% today. Chevron and Exxon were the two biggest gainers of the Dows 30 components, 28 of which were up today…’



A Mild Rally in Spite of No Good News in the Eurozoneat Minyanville 

 

STOCKS MAKE UNSHAKABLE RALLY: Here's What You Need To Know Business Insider Gus Lubin, On Tuesday August 23, 2011, Stocks rallied around the world despite some bad data and a moderate earthquake in D.C. But first, the scoreboard:

Dow: +293
NASDAQ: +100
S&P 500: +37

And now the top stories:

 

Americatowns Abroad: One Bleak Vision of American Workers' Future at Minyanville 

 

 

 

‘Very Muted Growth’ Coming for Next 10 Years: Faber  [ I’d realistically say he’s very optimistic which is why he’s on mainstream cnbc! The reality is much worse!  ]CNBC | Both the U.S. and Europe are facing a decade of slow growth brought on primarily by the blunders of central banks, noted doomsayer Marc Faber said.


 

Gold Reaches $1,913.50 – Smart Money Moving Into Silver As UBS Says $50 Silver In 3 Months GoldCore | All major currencies are higher against gold today including the US dollar, despite the dollar falling on international markets.


 

Gold retreats from record high above $1,900/oz Reuters | Gold prices retreated more than 1 percent from record highs on Tuesday.

 

Gold Off Charts as Prices Heading ’Parabolic’ Bloomberg | Gold rallied to a record near $1,900 an ounce as economist Dennis Gartman said prices will go “parabolic.”



 

(8-23-11) Dow  11,176  +322   Nasdaq  2,446  +100   S&P 500  1,162  +38   [CLOSE- OIL $85.55 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $3.59  (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS  $3.90 REG./ $4.00 MID-GRADE/$4.10 PREM./ $4.32  DIESELL) /  GOLD $1,846  (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $42.26  (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,869 (+56% for year 2009)  Metal News for the Day  / DOLLAR= .69 EURO, 76 YEN, .60 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go LOWER)/  Interest Rates:   http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield     10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.15%      AP Business Highlights        ...Yahoo Market Update...         T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies -  Domestic / International           This Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope       The bull market that never was/were  beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold                  ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’       Must Read Economic / Financial Data        This Depression is just beginning     The coming depression…  thecomingdepression.net           The Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think       Sliding Back Into the Great Depression  ABSOLUTELY, ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! 

 


 

BofA Warns Upcoming “Desperate Measures” By Authorities Will Result In Another 2008 Market Collapse Zero Hedge | Bank of America has taken desperate alarmism several notches further.

 

 

New national debt data: $4.247 Trillion in 945 days L.A. Times | When Obama took the oath twice on Jan. 20, 2009, the national debt was $10,626,000,000,000.


 

Home sales approach worst point in half a century Bloomberg | Sales of new U.S. homes declined more than projected in July.


 

Bloomberg reveals massive corruption in the private Federal Reserve Madison Ruppert | Bloomberg has revealed that the “Wall Street Aristocracy” received a staggering $1.2 trillion in loans.


 

In Baltimore, homes for $10,000 — and less Baltimore Sun | Housing prices continue to fall through much of the region.

 

Social Security disability on verge of insolvency

 

 

 

MKM Bracing For SPY To Drop 8% More; Nasdaq Nearing August Lows at Barrons.com Murray Coleman ‘Stocks continue to slump today, reeling from a raft of ugly data and growing concerns about European sovereign debt. But how far lower can ETFs tracking key benchmarks slide? MKM Partners’ technical analyst Katie Stockton sees a range around $110 a share for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as the next level of support. That would represent about a 3-4% drop from current levels. SPY most recently was trading down 4.6% at $114.09 a share. “I do expect that level ($110) to be re-tested in coming weeks,” Stockton said in an interview, noting that level had been tested early last week and held. The problem is that her indicators show that blue chip U.S. stocks still could have a ways to go. “The market doesn’t appear oversold at this point, so the market looks like it could go lower,” Stockton said. Perhaps the most important level for SPY is the February 2010 low of $105 a share, roughly 8% below current levels. “That level hasn’t been broken on a decisive basis yet,” Stockton noted. “That’s the number we’re really keeping a close eye on after what’s taken place today.” Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq’s near-term backdrop looks just as volatile, notes Michael Ashbaugh in his Technical Trader investment letter. With Thursday’s downturn, the benchmark has knifed straight through initial support at 2,493 placing it back within August-crash territory. In the near-term, the veteran technician expects to see modest support at around 2,357 — its August closing low. That’s around 0.6% from where the index’s trading at now.’

 

 

 

Stocks Plunge, Gold Surges on Global Concern Aug 18th, 2011 14:30 by News (Bloomberg) — ‘Stocks plunged while Treasuries rallied, pushing yields to record lows, amid growing signs the economy is slowing and speculation that European banks lack sufficient capital. Gold climbed to a record, while oil led commodities lower. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index tumbled 4.5 percent to 1,140.74 at 4 p.m. in New York. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 4.8 percent in its worst plunge since March 2009 and Germany’s DAX Index slid 5.8 percent, the most since 2008. Ten-year Treasury yields fell as much as 19 basis points to 1.97 percent as rates on similar-maturity Canadian and British debt also reached all-time lows. The dollar gained versus 15 of 16 major peers, strengthening 0.6 percent to $1.4336 per euro. Gold futures rallied as much as 2.1 percent to $1,832 an ounce, while oil slid 5.9 percent.’ European Shares Fall Most Since March 2009 Aug 18th, 2011 12:01 by News (CNBC) — ‘European equities suffered their biggest daily fall in two and a half years on Thursday, as a slew of data cast further doubt on the strength of the recovery in the world’s biggest economy. German shares lost most, with traders citing the effects of a short-selling ban on financial stocks in other parts of Europe and intensifying worries about politicians’ lack of a plan to address the euro zone sovereign debt crisis. The European banking sector, exposed to the euro zone debt crisis, fell 6.6 percent and is down 29.7 percent this year.’

 

 

 

 

Jobless Claims, Inflation Rise More Than Expected CNBC | New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week.  Chavez Nationalizes Venezuela’s Gold Industry, Recalls Hundreds of Tons of Gold Held Abroad, May Cause a Scramble for Physical Gold From JP Morgan and Others    SEC destroyed crucial probe data: senator AFP | The SEC may have destroyed documents related to possible violations by major banks and hedge funds.  World stock markets plunge as fears of recession intensify guardian.co.uk   Don’t Swallow the FED’s $16 Trillion Suicide Pill Michael McKay | The Federal Reserve secretly kept the Phony-Fiat-Money-System afloat by “lending” out $16 Trillion.   GALLUP: Americans satisfied with ‘the way things are going’ — 11%! Gallup | Americans’ satisfaction with the way things are going in the United States has fallen back to 11%.

 

 

 

Stocks: Mutual Fund Investors Hate Them the Most Since Oct. 2008 at The Wall Street Journal 

Rick Perry on Ben Bernanke: Fed Chairman's Money Printing Policies Are "Almost Treasonous"at Minyanville 
The Loss of Momentum in the Markets All Too Apparent Now Bob Chapman

 

 

 

Venezuela Plans to Move Reserve Funds Aug 17th, 2011 10:35 by News August 17 (The Wall Street Journal) —‘ Venezuela plans to transfer billions of dollars in cash reserves from abroad to banks in Russia, China and Brazil and tons of gold from European banks to its central bank vaults, according to documents reviewed Tuesday by The Wall Street Journal.The planned moves would include transferring $6.3 billion in cash reserves, most of which Venezuela now keeps in banks such as the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, and Barclays Bank in London to unnamed Russian, Chinese and Brazilian banks, one document said.Venezuela also plans to move 211 tons of gold it keeps abroad and values at $11 billion to the vaults of the Venezuelan Central Bank in Caracas where the government keeps its remaining 154 tons of bullion, the document says. PG View: There have been plenty of reasons to question President Chávez’s sanity in recent years, but seeking to lessen Venezuela’s dependence on the dollar and removing assets, particularly their gold, from Western banks is actually pretty prudent. It will be interesting to see how forthcoming those Western banks will be in facilitating the repatriation of Venezuela’s gold.’ Chavez Plans on Nationalizing Gold Industry Fox Business | “I have here the laws allowing the state to exploit gold and all related activities.”

 

 

Putin sets sights on Eurasian economic union Financial Times | Twenty years after the Soviet Union collapsed, Vladimir Putin, the Russian prime minister, may not, as is sometimes alleged, be trying to recreate it.

 

Putting The Cart On Top Of The Horse, Or Why Heaping Fiscal “Stimulus” Upon “Stimulus” Is Suicide For America Zero Hedge | Feeding the government monster is, contrary to what Krugman and other Keynesians will tell you, in the current regime of coincident monetary irrigation, an exercise in futility.

 

 

 

Merkel/Sarkozy press conference: No chance of eurobond anytime soon. No expansion of ESFS. Move toward common governance.  Financial  transaction tax. Aug 16th, 2011 10:37 by News EUR rallied then retreated. Germany adds to eurozone’s woes Aug 16th, 2011 10:13 by News August 16 (Financial Times) — German economic growth slowed to a near standstill in the second quarter of this year, dealing a further, unexpected blow to the crisis-hit eurozone.The surprisingly-sharp deceleration in activity in Europe’s largest economy hit overall eurozone growth and intensified fears about the global slowdown. It also threatened to complicate the challenge facing the region’s policymakers as they seek to combat its escalating debt crisis.

 

 

Stocks Slip On Concern Over Europe's Debt, U.S. Data

Dell braces investors for a bumpy road 16 Aug 2011 Dell makes a case on why it can better weather an upcoming storm with more higher margin businesses...

S&P says sell Google's shares after Motorola deal

Ron Paul on Texas Straight Talk: U.S. Government Debt Is Becoming Worthless

 

 

 

 

How Low Will Stocks Go? at Minyanville  By MoneyShow.com Aug 12, 2011  Up 500 points one day, down 500 the next. That’s the way the market is these days.

On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 520 points, erasing all of Tuesday’s gains from the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep short-term interest rates near zero. As of noon Thursday, it’s up about 250.

By Wednesday’s close, the Dow had lost 2,000 points, or more than 15% of its value, since July 21. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes lost slightly more during that time. All three are perilously close to the 20% decline from the late April-early May top that many pundits (particularly in the media) use as a rule of thumb to determine a bear market.

Unfortunately, I think stocks have still lower to go. How low? Later in this column I’ll tell you what some respected technical analysts think.

But let’s start with the fundamentals.

First, the economy. Need I say more? Jobless figures were somewhat better in June, but economists have revised downward their estimates of GDP growth. Measures of consumer confidence are pretty weak.

And did anybody get the real message the Federal Open Market Committee put out Tuesday? The economy is so sick, the Fed is willing to guarantee exceptionally low rates for two years! I’ve never seen the Fed telegraph its moves so far in advance, and the FOMC’s statement said over and over again how lousy the economy is.

Meanwhile, the open rebellion by three voting FOMC members makes it highly unlikely we’re going to see another round of quantitative easing anywhere near as big as the last two.

Third, there’s the debt crisis. Everyone agrees the European Union just doesn’t have the money to bail out Italy and Spain, its third and fourth largest economies, if it comes to that. Rumors are swirling about the health of French banks and the safety of France’s AAA rating.

And the debt-ceiling standoff here, which culminated in S&P downgrading the US’s AAA credit rating, means more government action to “fix” the economy is likely off the table.

So there’s no way President Obama will get much additional stimulus. He’s desperately trying to extend unemployment benefits and the payroll tax holiday for another year, but that looks pretty iffy at best. (You can read more from me about the "end of the welfare state" on The Independent Agenda.)

Finally, there are earnings, which have been great. But we’re getting much later in the cycle, and their momentum appears to be slowing. It’s hard for me to see how earnings growth alone is going to power the market much higher when everything else appears to be going in the opposite direction.

And while valuations are looking attractive by some measures, they don’t exist in a vacuum, either.

So, where does that leave us? Four prominent technical analysts I contacted all agreed: Stocks are heading lower, likely into a new bear market.

David Sneddon, head of technical analysis research at Credit Suisse in London, said the 1,370.58 intraday high in the S&P we saw on May 2 was the likely top. There’s critical technical support around 1,100, which is just about from where the market bounced back this week. So far, we seem to be holding that.

The next level of technical support below that is at 1,020-1,022. “You’d have to get below [1,000-1,010] to have a genuine bear market.”

Another London-based technician, Sandy Jadeja of City Index, who watches the Dow, thinks that’s where we’re going.

A few weeks ago, he predicted the Dow would drop to 10,428, which it did. Now, he told me by e-mail, “the rally that follows will be brief, and then lead to another leg down to 9,673 and further.”

“Lows are not to be expected until 2012,” he concluded. “Next month is critical. If we break the low of August in September, there is worse to come.”

 

Mark Arbeter, chief technical analyst of Standard & Poor’s, said back in May and June that the bull market was probably over, as I reported in this column. He hasn’t changed his position.

By e-mail, he said he “would look for some stabilization and a potential short-term rally now that the S&P 500 has fallen into a major zone of chart support…between 1,023 and 1,128.”

Ultimately he thinks the S&P could fall to 1,020, or maybe as low as 935. That would be 15% below Wednesday’s close, and would definitely mark a new bear market.

Michael Kahn, who writes the Getting Technical column for Barrons.com and the QuickTakes Pro blog, has long argued we’re in a secular (long-term) bear market, and he thinks the cyclical bull is over, too. Like Arbeter, he sees 1,010 to 1,050 as the next level of support for the S&P, and below that 930.

“I think it stops at 930 to make the 2000s-2010s follow the 1970s very closely,” he wrote me by e-mail. That’s one decade for which investors have little nostalgia.

The technicians are unanimous that stocks are going lower, though some are looking for a strong rally that goes against the bearish trend. Arbeter doesn’t expect that rally to go much beyond 1,250-1,260 before it sells off again. Sneddon doesn’t think it’ll bounce much higher than 1,200.

“We’ve clearly seen a lot of technical damage done in a lot of markets,” he told me. “I would be personally [inclined] rather to lighten up and reduce my positions” on rallies.

That would be my position, too, if I hadn’t already taken profits and sold what I wanted to a couple of months ago.

If you missed that chance, I wouldn’t sell in panic now, but would wait for stocks to mount a rebound to sell off positions in riskier small-cap stocks (which already may be in a bear market) and emerging markets, whose time in the sun has come and gone. That also may be a good time to permanently reduce your exposure to equities.

But I certainly wouldn’t buy into a market like this with all its wicked swings and uncertainties. Even mighty Goldman Sachs (GS) lost money on 15 trading days in the second quarter! And John Paulson, the hedge-fund genius who masterminded “the greatest trade ever” by shorting subprime mortgages, has lost 31% so far this year in his largest fund.

If people like that who have the best information and technology are losing money in this market, do you really think you’re going to beat them at their own game?

There will be a time to buy again, but it’s not now. This market is heading lower.’


Editor's Note: This article was written by Howard R. Gold, editor at large for MoneyShow.com. 

 

 

 

Five Reasons for the Stock Market Crash and Zero Interest Rate 11 Aug 2011  Read more: Five Reasons for the Stock Market Crash and Zero Interest Rate    http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Stock-Market-Interest-Rate/2011/08/11/id/406976  Its said that the stock market climbs a wall of worry. Because the stock market is trying to predict the future success or failures of various companies, it sometimes gets things wrong. Horribly, terribly wrong.

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling like a rock, with wild swings not seen since the stock market crash of 2008, many investors are on the verge of panic. It
s easy to see why. The Federal Reserve is committed to keeping interest rates near zero until mid-2013 at the earliest. Those low interest rates penalize investors on a fixed income who dont want the risk of the stock market.

Publisher
s Note: In an exclusive interview presentation, Aftershock 2012, Robert Wiedemer outlines a dire financial warning along with a comprehensive blueprint for economic survival. Over one million Americans have seen the evidence and learned how to weather the stock market, secure interest rates, and save their financial future. Watch the video now.

But investors who understand the reasons behind the latest decline in the stock market have little to fear. Below are five reasons why the stock market is crashing right now:

1) Current Debt Crisis in Europe and the United States

Between record high bond rates in Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland, the eurozone has its hands full in dealing with too much debt relative to the size of its various economies. As a result of the poor bond performance from these countries, Europe is on the cusp of plunging into a banking crisis. Such a crisis could send interest rates soaring for “prime” countries like France and Germany, not to mention throw the continent into a recession.

Across the Atlantic, the United States isn’t faring much better. The recent debt ceiling drama concluded at the 11th hour, with very little in the way of true cuts. Instead, the government has promised to cut future growth, which may or may not even occur. No wonder S&P downgraded U.S. debt!

Ultimately, it isn’t risky assets like stocks that cause economic problems. Markets sell off when seemingly safe assets are suddenly recognized as significantly riskier than they were once perceived.

2) United States Government Is at an Impasse

As part of the recent debt ceiling deal, Congress approved the creation of a bipartisan super-committee comprised of 12 members to fast-track legislation. The constitutionality of such a committee is dubious at best, but it’s just one way for Washington lawmakers to pass off responsibility and avoid tough decisions.

It doesn’t end there. The Federal Reserve has tried two rounds of “quantitative easing,” a scheme to buy up excess debt. The rationale was that it would get the U.S. economy back on track. Instead, this plan juiced the returns of the stock market, and sent gas prices and grocery costs soaring.

Meanwhile, Congressional Republicans are calling for the ouster of Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner as a consequence of the U.S. losing its S&P AAA credit rating.

In other words, it’s business as usual for the government: trying to fix a crisis that’s largely the result of its own poor oversight, while avoiding any responsibility for causing the problem in the first place.

3) U.S. Unemployment Is Running Over 15%!

As long as the U.S. economy isn’t creating enough new jobs, it will stagnate. Although the unemployment rate has declined from the double-digit rates it hit in 2009/2010, many astute individuals have noted that the latest unemployment report is inaccurate.

Using the measurement for unemployment used by the government up until the early 1980s, true unemployment is running over 15%!

Meanwhile, many thrown out of work have exhausted their unemployment benefits, which in some cases lasted as long as 99 weeks. Once off unemployment, they officially disappear from the official unemployed list, making the job market appear better than expected.

Adding millions of jobs would be the best economic stimulus possible. It would allow millions to loosen their belts and spend more, which would be a huge boon across the entire economy.

Publisher’s Note: Author and esteemed economist Bob Wiedemer accurately predicted these events more than four years ago. Over one million Americans have seen the evidence and learned how to weather the stock market, secure interest rates, and save their financial future. Watch the video now.

4) United States Has No Economic Growth

Historically, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates to increase economic growth. That’s because lower interest rates make it easier for individuals to borrow money to buy cars, houses, start small businesses and the like. However, there’s been nearly no growth since the United States plunged into a recession in 2008. And the Federal Reserve can’t cut rates any lower.

There’s no doubt in the minds of many market participants that more Fed easing policies are on the way, especially after America’s first-quarter GDP was revised from 1.9% to 0.4%.

The stock market’s moves are highly dependent on economic growth. If an individual company can post huge growth numbers, its shares tend to go up, and its shares tend to decline when growth stalls. When a country’s GDP is stagnant, investors don’t know what to expect. Hence the recent stock market plunge, as economic data may suggest that another recession is upon us.

5) No Housing Recovery

The stock market crash of 2011 is starting to resemble the stock market crash of 2008 in one key way: Bank stocks are leading the decline. Since the start of August, banks deemed “too big to fail” like Citigroup and Bank of America have sold off twice as hard as the overall stock market.

It’s easy to see why. Banks are sitting on millions of properties listed on their balance sheets at pre-housing crash prices. If all these properties hit the market at once, prices would have to fall substantially. If the banks have to sell them at a loss, they’ll take a hit to their balance sheet at a time when they’re still trying to improve it.

A housing recovery can spur job growth for construction jobs, real estate agents, and businesses in new communities. But we currently have a housing glut that will take several years to work through.

Until then, without a housing recovery, it’ll be tough for the overall economy to recover. That means the stock market is in for a wild ride and low interest rates are here to stay.

While these five reasons aren’t a comprehensive list of the problems weighing down the stock market and keeping interest rates paltry, they should give most investors a reason to stay cautious over the next few months.

Based on the market’s action and recent economic data, it’s more likely than not we’re entering a double-dip recession. Stay heavy on safe investments and don’t give into the fear.


Read more: Five Reasons for the Stock Market Crash and Zero Interest Rate
Important: Can you afford to Retire? Shocking Poll Results …’

 

Stocks Overbought Already?at The Wall Street Journal

 

Are US Markets Facing the Abyss? [ Short answer: Worse! ] at Minyanville   Jeffrey Cooper Aug 15, 2011

As soon as the idea of the Deluge had subsided, a hare stopped in the clover and swaying flowerbells, and said a prayer to the rainbow, through the spiders web.

Oh, the precious stones that began to hide, and the flowers that already looked around.

In the dirty main street, stalls were set up and boats were hauled toward the sea, high tiered as in old prints.

Blood flowed at Blue Beard
s -- though slaughterhouses, in circuses, where the windows were blanched by Gods seal. Blood and milk flowed.

Beavers built.
Mazagrans smoked in the little bars.

In the big glass house, still dripping, children in mourning looked at the marvelous pictures.

A door banged; and in the village square the little boy waved his arms, understood by weather vanes and cocks on steeples everywhere, in the bursting shower.

Madame installed a piano in the Alps. Mass and first communions were celebrated at the hundred thousand altars of the cathedral.

Caravans set out. And Hotel Splendid was built in the chaos of ice and the polar night.

Ever after the moon heard jackals howling across the deserts of thyme, and eclogues in wooden shoes growling in the orchard. Then in the violet and budding forest, Eucharis told me it was spring.

Gush, pond -- foam, roll on the bridge and over the woods -- black palls and organs, lightning and thunder, rise and roll -- waters and sorrows rise and launch the Floods again.

For since they have been dissipated -- oh, the precious stones being buried and the opened flowers -- it
s unbearable. And the Queen, the Witch who lights her fire in the earthen pot will never tell us what she knows, and what we do not know.

--Apres Le Deluge, Arthur Rimbaud

"Yeah, keep your eyes on the road, your hands upon the wheel...
Let it roll, baby, roll.
"
-Roadhouse Blues (The Doors)

Somebody hit her with a chair, you know. I guess theres no way to determine who did it. Its already coagulating. She was just an innocent bystander. Its a democracy.
-Jim Morrison

There are things known and there are things unknown, and in between are the doors of perception.
-Aldous Huxley

That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons that History has to teach.
-Aldous Huxley

Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad.
-Aldous Huxley

The market went mad last week. The truth of capitalism was in chaos, democracy in disarray, and paralyzed politics hit home. The truth hurts.

And the Queen, the Witch who lights her fire in the earthen pot will never tell us what she knows, and what we do not know.

Seemingly in unison, market participants' heads hit their pillows Friday night with a thousand points of night running like shards of broken confidence through their minds.

The consumer confidence number hit the lowest level in a generation as the retail therapy of conspicuous consumption threatens to hit the wall.

Anesthetized with lies and sedated with stimulus, is the consumer shopped out and about to send a wake-up call to Mr. Economy?

At the end of World War II, no power existed which could compete with the US militarily or economically.

The US had saved the world from the scourge of dictatorship.

In return, the Bretton-Woods Agreement in the Summer of 1944 also gave us the monetary power to print the world
s currency. We promised it would always be convertible into gold at the rate of $35 per ounce. This proviso was between the worlds central banks and ours. It remained true until August 15, 1971 when President Nixon voided the agreement because French President de Gaulle was about to make a run on our gold, which he knew wasnt sufficient to back up all of the currency then floating around in the worlds central banks. De Gaulle was about to precipitate a kind of run on the bank.

Son of a gun.

Is this a harmonic of the rumors that Dominique Strauss-Kahn -- former head of the IMF who was about to run for the French presidency -- was set up in a hotel in New York because he was about to reveal something about the gold that is or is not in Fort Knox?

Ever since the Bretton Woods Agreement was broken 40 years ago today, the dollar has been wandering in a sort of financial Biblical desert, characterized by the last decade of bubbles and busts.

The monthly S&P shows 3 persistent advances: a 5-year run into March 2000, a 4-year run into July 2007, and a 2-year run in May 2011.

The March 2000 top saw a break and a return rally/test failure into late August 2000. The July 2007 top saw a break and a return rally that made a marginal new high test failure in October 2007. Both of these tests failures of the high came roughly 90 days/degrees later.

In 2011 an initial peak played out on February 18th. A test failure played out with a marginal new high roughly 90 days/degrees later.

In
How Mid-September 2008 Ties To The July 2010 Low And Today from late June, I walked through the setup for a waterfall decline.

The March
03 low was 788 which is where the big advance to 2007 began. 2 x 788 gives the price of the S&P all-time high in 2007.

From the March 6, 2009 low to the May 2, 2011 high is 787 days.

Time was
up this May, but the S&P didnt roll over until the anniversary of the July 07 high.

From August 1971 to August 2011 is 480 months. On the Square of 9 Wheel, 480 is square 90 degrees of August 24th.

August 24th is opposite this year's February 18th peak.

The end of the month also ties to the pre-crash high in 1987, the pre-crash high in 1929, and the return rally high in 2000.

The end of August vibrates off major crashes in history.

In addition, early September ties to the 120-month anniversary of 9/11 and the 1000 point DJIA bungee following that crash.

Will an ABC retracement rally following our recent crash be able to satisfy my projection early last week of a 1000 DJIA rally?

Will the end of the month/early September mark a retracement high or a new low?{PAGE_BREA}Surprisingly, after violating the Bretton Woods agreement, the world kept on functioning as though the US dollar was still as good as gold. The only limit on our power to print money was the world
s willingness to continue tolerating our enormous abuse of this power. In effect, it gave us the power to soak up the savings of others around the world in order for us to consume. It was a giddy time.

It was a giddy-up time for politicians intent on spending to buy votes and the incestuous target they created for lobbyists.

Americans then had a free ride in financial matters to take the labor of others and use them to their benefit. We no longer had to produce. We could just let others do the producing and all that we needed to do was print more money and pay them off.

That illusion is ebbing.

Technically, the market looks like it is creeping higher to finish off an ABC upward correction from 1190 to 1225, which should see the market quickly fall to lower lows. The mid-point of equilibrium between the 666 low and the 1371 high equates to 1018. A decline to 1018 could be a test of the 1011 low in July 2010.

1190 is the mid-point from the July 2010 low to the May 2011 high.

1225 ties to last year's double tops.

A full backtest of the big neckline ties to 1250ish.

This week the market will tie to the chance for an Upside Follow Through Day -- a day with a substantial gain on substantial volume at least 4 days after a low.

This week is also options expiration, so a possible C wave corrective rally could theoretically see the market hold up into the end of the week.

However, without a big momentum day to hook the shorts, the market will drift before another leg down targeting 1040ish to 940ish.

We have been looking for a blow out low near mid-August based primarily on the cycle from 1951.

The closing lows for two sessions near 1121 aligns with mid-August on the Square of 9 Wheel. Only above 1260 does the market suggest something else other than a new bear leg is playing out.

We don
t want to short if a washout has occurred like in August 2007. As we asked in a report last week, is this a blow-out low or a mid-point for a move lower?

At the same time it
s tricky to go long here between 1190 and 1225: the vast majority of technicals indicate a new bear leg. While many stocks are improving they have not repaired the damage.

A lot of comparisons have been made between the current cascade in stocks and 2008. Memory is short on Wall Street, but not that short. It is possible that money managers and robots alike sold first and will ask questions later so as not to be mangled in a another train wreck.

But this is not like 2008 in the sense that the Crash in the Fall of 2008 was a second leg down.

Modern markets haven
t seen a drop off a peak or pivot high from late July like we just witnessed. It was worse that last years Flash Crash in May 2010. It is worse than the initial sell-off in late 2008.

Even on Black Monday in 1987, stocks were decimated in virtually one day and it was over. This one has been a Roller Coaster Crash.

While the market has echoed the Flying Elvis Pattern that installed a low from mid-July 2010, it remains extremely risky as the sharpness and steepness of the selloff leaves it/left it primed for a reflex rally.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/cooper/0811/15/ARCX_SPY_D%20--%20SPDR%20S&P%20500%20TRUST.gif

At the same time, as offered in a chart in this space in late July, the set up for a waterfall crash like 1929 was in place and that pattern may not have played out completely.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/cooper/0811/15/DJIA%201929%20Daily.gif%20final.jpg

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/Image/cooper/0811/15/ARCX_GLD_D%20--%20SPDR%20GOLD%20SHARES.gif   

 

Rickards – US will revalue gold to $7000  Aug 15th, 2011 15:10 by News  August 15 (King World News) — ‘ He (Nixon) said first of all I am imposing national price controls because there was an inflation problem in the United States at the time. The second thing he said was I am putting a 10% surtax of imports on all imported goods coming into the United States. Then about 10 minutes into the speech, very much en passant, he said, ‘Oh by the way we are suspending the convertibility of dollars into gold’ and he immediately went into this Nixonian rant about speculators. So it was very interesting, there were three earth-shaking announcements. Can you imagine any one of those three things going on today? President Obama or any President saying he was going to impose nationwide price controls, or all Chinese goods would have a 10% surcharge. It would be cataclysmic, yet Nixon did both of those things. Plus (Nixon) took us off the gold standard, so it was quite a dramatic speech. In a strange way he did us all a favor by making sure we (the US) held on to the gold. So I do think the United States is in a position to revalue the currency using gold to that $7,000 level. That will obviously be a huge benefit to all of the people who invested in gold because they are going to be along for the ride, along with the United States when that gold goes to $7,000.” Excerpted from an interview that is available here.



Fed Pledge Let's You Know The Fix Is In  Forbes  Peter Schiff Last weeks wild actions on Wall Street should serve as a stark reminder that few investors have any clue as to what is really going on beneath the surface of Americas troubled economy. It did bring startling clarity on at least one front. In its August policy statement the Federal Reserve took the highly unusual step of putting a specific time frame for the continuation of its near zero interest rate policy.

Moving past the previously uncertain pronouncements that they would keep interest rates low for an extended period, the Fed now tells us that rates will not budge from rock bottom for at least two years. Although the markets rallied on the news (at least for a few minutes) in reality the policy will inflict untold harm on the U.S. economy. The move was so dangerous and misguided that three members of the Feds Open Market Committee actually voted against it. This level of dissent within the Fed hasnt been seen for years.

Many economists have short-sightedly concluded that ultra low interest rates are a sure fire way to spur economic growth. The easier and cheaper it is to borrow, they argue, the more likely business and consumers are to spend. And because spending spurs growth, in their calculation, low rates are always good. But, as is typical, they have it backwards.

I believe that ultra-low interest rates are among the biggest impediments currently preventing genuine economic growth in the US economy. By committing to keep them near zero for the next two years, the Fed has actually lengthened the time Americans will now have to wait before a real recovery begins. Low rates are the root cause of the misallocation of resources that define the modern American economy. As a direct result, Americans borrow, consume, and speculate too much, while we save, produce, and invest too little.

It may come as a shock to some, but just like everything else in a free market, interest rate levels are best determined by the freely interacting forces of supply and demand. In the case of interest rates, the determinative factors should be the supply of savings available to lend and the demand for money by people and business who want to borrow. Many of the beneficial elements of market determined rates are explained in my book How an Economy Grows and Why it Crashes. But allowing the government to determine interest rates as a matter of policy creates a number of distortions.

It was bad enough that the Fed held rates far too low, but at least a fig leaf of uncertainty kept the most brazen speculators in partial paralysis. But by specifically telegraphing policy, the Fed has now given cover to the most parasitic elements of the financial sector to undertake transactions that offer no economic benefit to the nation. Specifically, it will simply encourage banks to borrow money at zero percent from the Fed, and then use significant leverage to buy low yielding treasuries at 2 to 4 percent. The result is a bankers dream: guaranteed low risk profit. In other words it will encourage banks to lend to the government, which already borrows too much, and not lend to private borrowers, whose activity could actually benefit the economy.

This reckless policy, designed to facilitate government spending and appease Wall Street financiers, will continue to starve Main Street of the capital it needs to make real productivity-enhancing investments. American investment capital will continue to flow abroad, denying local business the means to expand and hire. It also destroys interest rates paid to holders of bank savings deposits which traditionally had been a financial pillar of retirees. In addition, such an inflationary policy drives real wages lower, robbing Americans of their purchasing power. The consequence is a dollar in free-fall, dragging down with it the standard of living of average Americans.

Until interest rates are allowed to rise to appropriate levels, more resources will be misallocated, additional jobs will be lost, government spending and deficits will continue to grow, the dollar will keep falling, consumer prices will keep rising, and the government will keep blaming our problems on external factors beyond its control. As the old adage goes, insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. 

Peter Schiff is CEO of Euro Pacific Capital.

Related Posts:

 

 

 

Train Reading: The Stock Market Is Insane The Wall Street Journal

The stock market has lost its mind Bethany McLean in Slate

Are US banks turning Japanese? FT Alphaville

Hows that austerity working out for you, UK? Econbrowser

Can Jeremy Grantham profit from ecological mayhem? NY Times Magazine

Authors and critics reveal which lit classics they consider overrated Slate

Its not so easy applying Moneyball principles to soccer WSJ 

 

 

THE STOCK MARKET HAS LOST ITS MIND Bethany McLean in Slate Risk On! Do the Fed, computer trading, and a few hedge funds rule the market? That might explain why it's lost its mind. After the madness of last week and the rollercoaster at the beginning of this week, the stock market recovered from its Aug. 10 rout to bounce 423 points on Aug. 11. It was the fourth day in a row in which the index moved by more than 400 points, which has never happened before in history. As I write this, stock prices are leveling off, but the big swings may not be over. Has the market gone mad? Actually, yes.

In theory, the stock market is supposed to reflect the prospects for the economythe earnings potential of the stocks that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average. But there's more than one reason to believe that what's going on now has little to do with any rational view of the future, and a lot to do with the market itself. "Dip your toes into any risk asset right now and understand that you are not entering into anything remotely resembling a normal market environment," wrote David Rosenberg, the well-respected former Merrill Lynch analyst who is now the chief economist at Canadian firm Gluskin Sheff, in his recent newsletter. "Dysfunctional is more like it."

The first factor to consider is that the huge rebound in stocks and in all sorts of risk assets from the spring of 2009 until May of this year wasn't necessarily driven by a belief that better times were coming. It was driven by a belief that investors had to buy riskier assets given the Fed's determination to hold interest rates near zero. Because investors can't get a return in "safe" assetsindeed, a small return will get chewed up by inflationthey are driven to riskier assets. As more investors pile in, everyone is driven further out along the risk curve.

This is what traders call "risk on." What they mean is that you'll be rewarded for buying risk, regardless of reality. The Fed's second round of quantitative easing ("QE2"), in which it bought $600 billion of Treasuries in order to keep interest rates low, encouraged this investment strategy. "We had a nice two-year rally in risk assets and something close to an economic recovery, but as we had warned, it was built on sticks and straw, not bricks," wrote Rosenberg. "This isn't much different than the financial engineering in the 2002-07 cycle that gave off the appearance of prosperity."

 The Fed intended this to end happily. The fake wealth created by a soaring market was supposed to turn into real wealth, because rich people, who control much of the economy and who have much of their money in the market, were supposed to spend more. But it hasn't worked, partly because of problems in the rest of the worldthe tsunami in Japan, the financial crisis that's brewing in Europeand partly because our own economy is too deep in hock to achieve the necessary stimulus. As Howard Marks, the chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, put it in his recent letter, "The world has awakened to the undesirability of ever-growing government debt."

You can think of the Fed's medicine as a painkiller. It allows everyone to pretend that bad stuff isn't happening, until something shatters the illusion and the comfortable numbness abruptly gives way to panic. There's massive selling. Then the Fed reassures everyone that its toolbox isn't empty just yetwitness the big upturn on Aug. 9 after the Fed said it would likely hold rates near zero until mid-2013 (a worthless prediction if inflation surges)and the market soars. Risk on!

It's hard to develop any real conviction about the direction of the market when so much depends on the actions of the Federal Reserve. That's especially true because even the members of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee aren't all in agreement. Three members voted against the Fed's Aug. 9 announcement. Complicating matters is that the short term direction of the real economy is also at the mercy of the government. The key line in this Wall Street Journal story: "As goes government spending, so goes the U.S. economy."

Another possible factor in the madness is forced selling by big hedge funds. There are rumors that funds are getting hit by margin calls, or that funds that are having a bad year are getting redemption requests from investors, thereby forcing them to sell. Most of the gossip has focused on John Paulson (the hedge fund manager who famously made his fortune by shorting securities backed by subprime mortgages), given the big positions he was known to have in stocks that have gotten trashed. But if Paulson is hurting, he's probably not alone. "No way big guys could have gotten out," one trader tells me via email. "Big hedge funds with all the same big positions. This move down happened so fast that they are trapped." If this theory is right, then sudden rallies like Thursday's upturn will be followed by more selling, as hedge funds take advantage of the ability to get out.

The last explanation I've heard is that most of the buying and selling hasn't been driven by real people, but rather by computers. Hello, HAL 9000! In the last five years, computer-driven trading, whether controversial high-frequency trading or just programs that buy baskets of stocks based on technical figures, has become a bigger and bigger part of the market. Depending on how you define it, sources tell me it constitutes 70 percent to 90 percent of trading now. "The human element is gone," one trader tells me. At least some people believe that the presence of computers exacerbates the big moves up and down. According to this paper by X. Frank Zhang, an associate professor of accounting at the Yale School of Management, "high frequency trading is positively correlated with stock price volatility." Zhang goes on to say that the "positive correlation is stronger among the top 3,000 stocks in market capitalization and among stocks with high institutional holdings. The positive correlation is also stronger during periods of high market uncertainty." Zhang's academic work is supported by the observations of those who have been in the market for a long time. "I suspect that the real culprits here are the computers Wall Street has programmed and unleashed to trade and manage portfolios," wrote John Bollinger, who has been publishing his Capital Growth Letter for more than two decades. "The sort of mindless selling that we are seeing is most likely the result of machines trading and human beings desperately trying to keep up with them."

Should you buy? Should you sell? No one knows. The world is always an uncertain place, but right now it's more uncertain than usual, whether about the ultimate resolution of Europe's crisis or about how the U.S. will reduce its debt and get the economy growing again. Or perhaps I should say reduce its debt or get the economy growing, since it's unlikely to achieve both at the same time. This inability to guess what the future holds means that madness rules.

 

Withdrawals From Stock Funds Biggest Since 08  Aug 12th, 2011 15:32 by News (Bloomberg) Investors pulled the most money from global stock funds since 2008 in the past week as the Standard & Poors downgrade of Treasuries and the deepening European debt crisis prompted a flight into cash and gold. Funds that buy global equities suffered $3.5 billion in net withdrawals in the week ended Aug. 10, the most since the second week of October 2008, according to Cameron Brandt, director of research at Cambridge, Massachusetts-based EPFR Global. Investors removed $11.7 billion from funds that invest in U.S. equities, the most since May 2010 when investors pulled money following a one-day market crash that briefly erased $862 billion.This week had a feeling of capitulation as we saw investors running for cover, Brandt said in a telephone interview. The last time we saw this kind of flight to safety was in 2008, he said.

 

 

U.S. Consumer Confidence Drops to Three-Decade Low Amid Economic Headwinds  Aug 12th, 2011 13:10 by News (Bloomberg) — ‘Confidence among U.S. consumers plunged in August to the lowest level since May 1980, adding to concern that weak employment gains and volatility in the stock market will prompt households to retrench.The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment slumped to 54.9 from 63.7 the prior month. The gauge was projected to decline to 62, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.’

 

 

 

 

 

Pity the Policymakers  July 21st, 2011 by News  by Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) — ‘I don’t know about you, but whenever I am in an airplane experiencing turbulence, I draw comfort from the belief that the pilots sitting behind the cockpit’s closed door know what to do. I would feel very differently if, through an open door, I observed pilots who were frustrated at the poor responsiveness of the plane’s controls, arguing about their next step, and getting no help whatsoever from the operator’s manuals. So it is unsettling that policymakers in many Western economies today resemble the second group of pilots. This perception reflects not only the contradictory pronouncements and behavior of policymakers, but also the extent to which economic outcomes have consistently fallen short of their expectations.This perception is evident in Europe, the United States, and Japan, where indicators of economic sentiment are deteriorating again, already-weak recoveries are stalling, and over-stretched balance sheets are becoming even more precarious.’

 

 

 

Greek finance minister brushes off downgrade [ Sounds like a plan! ]

 

 

 

Is America The Next Greece? at Forbes Marc Schindler ‘After many years of overeating (overspending) Greece is in the emergency room with a major financial heart attack and America isn’t far behind.

The doctors (IMF, European finance ministers, the ECB, etc.) are running around trying to save it. Open heart surgery (loans guaranteed by others) has averted the immediate crisis, but Greece is just as overweight today as it was before the crisis. Attempts to lose weight through exercise (austerity measures) cause serious chest pains (riots). The doctors dont want to admit it, but all signs point to a heart transplant (default) as the only way to get Greece onto its feet again.

Greece isnt the only one. It is a veritable epidemic. Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain and a host of other countries are having chest pains. Iceland is feeling better now with its freshly transplanted heart. The American home owner is still in the hospital from his financial heart attack after gobbling up vast quantities of real estate, and it has been many decades since Uncle Sam last could see his toes.

By most accounts (e.g. here or Bill Gross statements in a recent interview) total hidden government liabilities add up to about $60-$100 trillion. That is on top of the $14 trillion of debt carried on the balance sheet. Adding up those liabilities, the US owes at least five times GDP, which currently sits at about $15 trillion. For comparison, Greeces debt is about 1.5 times its GDP.

This is not really a fair comparison, because it leaves out any hidden liabilities Greece may have. The US debt figure includes unfunded entitlements, state and local debt, and underfunded public pensions. Nevertheless, it is clear that this is an unsustainable debt load even if the estimates turn out to be off by a factor of two or four.

Uncle Sam is already more overweight than Greece ever was. If he doesnt change his ways, he will end up in the hospital like Greece, but at present he is partying like there is no tomorrow, gorging himself on entitlement spending, costly wars, bailouts, subsidies, and countless other delicacies.

Perhaps it would not be such a bad thing if the talks about raising the debt limit failed. After Uncle Sam suffers the resulting self-inflicted mild heart attack (temporary default) and finds out how much fun it is to fetch up in the emergency room, he might be more inclined to take care of himself, slim down, and stick with an exercise regime.

Some kind of a wakeup call is necessary while there is still time to deal with our debt problem. The only way to address it is for Washington to do its job: get everybody to recognize that there is a problem, find a solution that demands some sacrifices from everyone, and work together across party lines to implement it. In the current political environment that does not seem to be possible. Something needs to change the environment. Greece shows that the alternative is not pretty.

 

 

Corporate Earnings Soar Amidst a Dismal Job MarketWall St. Cheat Sheet [That game’s about to end! In fact, that game’s over!  Dave's Daily  'If you can keep interest rates this low this long, its inevitable cheap financing can allow companies to start cobbling each other up. Further Ben's policies allow companies like IBM to sell bonds at 1% and buy back shares with the proceeds (total paper bubble-scam). POMO is occurring almost daily and Primary Dealers can buy back their shares and pay dividends with what essentially is taxpayer money-- ]

 

 

Standing on the precipice – and ready to jump  July 21st, 2011 News By Wolfgang Münchau ( Financial Times) — ‘It looks like there will be deal on a eurozone package for Greece. The full details are still missing, but it appears that the eurozone is forcing Greece into a selective default. As part of such a package, short-term Greek debt will be more or less forcibly converted into long-term debt. The wretched bank tax is mercifully off the table. And the European financial stability facility will most likely be allowed to purchase Greek debt at a discount. LET US NOT MINCE WORDS HERE. THIS WOULD BE A DEFAULT, THE FIRST BY A WESTERN INDUSTRIALISED COUNTRY IN A GENERATION. I am not quite sure how it is possible for the European Central Bank to agree to this, or to all of this. But I will surely be intrigued to hear how Jean-Claude Trichet will manage to be consistent with what he said a few days ago. There are also reports that the eurozone leaders may accept a more flexible EFSF beyond those bond purchases.’

 

 

 

State Finances Are Worse Than You Think at Forbes

 

 

 

So Far, Market Ignoring Dire Warnings at Minyanville

 

 

 

The Greater Depression Is Upon Us by David Galland http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig10/galland34.1.html  Casey Research Recently by David Galland: The Road to Perdition  The phrase Greater Depression was coined by Doug Casey a decade or so back as a way of describing the economic crisis he foresaw as inevitable, and which is now materializing.

Because I think it is important for every organization to constantly challenge its own assumptions, Ive long acted as something of a devils advocate here at Casey Research. By constantly pushing our analysts to revisit their assumptions and calculations, it is my firm intention for us to spot the fork in the road that indicates it is time to shift strategies away from investments designed to do well in the face of a currency debasement and to something else.

Being attentive to that fork in the road is hugely important, because even though we urge our subscribers not to overdo their exposure to inflation hedges, we recognize that many do. Many a good person had their clocks cleaned in the early 1980s solely because they had become overly enamored of their precious metals so much so that they stopped thinking of them as an asset class and began thinking of them more in the terms one might associate with an amorous dinner date. Thus these investors were utterly unprepared when said date stood up and broke a dinner plate over their heads.

With that brief setup, I want to make our views clear: While we correctly anticipated the recent correction in precious metals, this correction is but a blip in a secular bull market that is very much intact.

Doug Casey has often said that the unfolding crisis is going to be even worse than he expects (which is saying something), and the longer the rest of us at Casey Research study the tea leaves, it is hard to disagree that the Greater Depression is still ahead.

Consider:

 

 

 

Watch Out: 2011 Looks A Lot Like The Market Top In 2007 at Forbes  Sean Hanlon  Back on December 12, 2007 I wrote a market commentary that started as follows:

The equity markets have been very volatile this year, but also range bound.  A picture speaks a thousand words so all one needs to do is view the chart below of the S&P 500 Index to understand just how volatile and range bound things have been.  Specifically, since February 20, 2007, only nine and one half months or so ago, the S&P 500 Index has been down 5.86%, up 13.02%, down 9.43%, up 11.26%, down 10.09%,
and now up 7.73%
through 12/10/07 so far in this
latest up leg!  All this in ONLY nine and one half months!

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/advisor/files/2011/07/market-commentary-1.jpg

History is repeating itself so far in 2011, which has been fraught with ups and downs in both international and domestic equity markets.  This is due to many things, including the considerable economic doubts and various countries debt situations. This uncertainty has translated into market performance with direct impacts on portfolio returns and more prominently in portfolio volatility. This volatility is best seen in the chart below of the S&P 500 Index beginning 1/1/11.

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/advisor/files/2011/07/market-commentary-2.jpg

2010 ended positivity and the momentum carried into the first two months of 2011 however the end of February began a series of events that led market returns on a whipsaw ride of ups and downs, resulting in the current universal mid-year views of market uncertainty.

What news was associated with this volatility? All the usual; crude oil prices, natural disasters, corporate earnings, politics, economic forecast revisions for both developed and emerging markets, the European debt situation, the United States debt situation and more to name just a few.

One thing is for certain; the current volatile, range bound market activity is difficult at best to profit from.  In this investing environment patience is the most important attribute.  I will be patient and will be careful until the trends are preferable.

Our strategy at Hanlon Investment Management is to attempt to minimize downside risk by exiting risk asset classes, such as equities, during periods of uncertainty, getting invested in more conservative asset classes, such as money markets and short-term bonds, and re-entering into risky asset classes when we identify them as attractive, when the trend is our friend and positive!

Having identified this volatility, in June we made defensive, tactical investment decisions that provide less exposure to these volatile, range bound markets and prepare us to re-enter the markets when they possess improved risk characteristics.

 

 

 

 

Deficit Ceiling and Stocks - Expect the Unexpected ETFguide Simon Maierhofer, July 19, 2011, ‘A number of cliches come to mind when talking about the U.S. debt situation. The most appropriate might be: 'You can't have your cake and eat it too.' The least applicable is probably: 'Never put off until tomorrow what you can do today.'

But if you think the U.S. will default on some of its obligations anytime soon, you don't have enough faith in the government's most potent weapon - extend and pretend (another cliche that's become the modus operandi).

Since 1960, Congress has acted 78 separate times to permanently raise, temporarily extend, or revise the definition of the debt limit. Chances are Congress will act again before the August 2 deadline. That however isn't good news.

By the end of this article you will know the common sense, no nonsense, deficit ramifications for the stock market and why even 'a deal' isn't good news.

USA Inc. - Income Statement

If the United States was a corporation - USA Inc. - here's what the Income Statement would look like:

Total federal spending in 2010 amounted to $3.456 trillion. Total receipts added up to $2.162 trillion. USA Inc.'s 2010 deficit was $1.294 trillion.                                 

The 2011 federal budget is $3.7 trillion with a projected deficit of$1.6 trillion. But there's no reason to despair, just before April 15,Congressional leaders were able to agree on $39 billion worth of budgetcuts for the remainder of the year.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid hailed this heroic effort as a 'historic' level of cuts. To quantify just how 'historic' that effort was we'll put it in percentage terms -1%. The cut amounted to only 1% of the 2011 budget. Apparently it wasn't enough. Thanks to extend and pretend we've arrived at the next deadline.

Stocks Applaud ... and Decline

Keep in mind that back in mid-April when the 'historic' $39 billion cut was hammered out, the S&P was at about 1,300. Following the 'resolution' of the budget problem stocks rallied about 5%.

The April 3 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter featured the chart below (due to size restrictions the chart had to be reduced). As per the chart and accompanying analysis, the Newsletter expected a rally to the next Fibonacci resistance at 1,369, followed by a bounce off the Fibonacci support at either 1,229 or 1,255 and an attempt to take out the previous high.

 http://www.etfguide.com//contributor/UserFiles/8/Image/5%20-%20April%203%20TF.jpg

This outlook was based purely on technical analysis with no regard for the deficit problem or European debt woes (we'll take a look at an updated technical forecast in a moment). The S&P did top at 1,370 on May 2. Thereafter it dropped to 1,259, and tried to take out the previous high (the S&P rallied as high as 1,356 on July 7and stumbled thereafter).

USA Inc. - Balance Sheet

If you think the Income Statement looks bad, you may not want to look at the Balance Sheet. Consensus estimates for unfunded obligations vary. Mary Meeker pegs the shortfall at $31 trillion, PIMCO's Bill Gross estimates the unreported debt to be $75 trillion, while other estimates exceed $100 trillion.

The Deficit and Stocks

When President Obama took office in January 2009, the federal debt was 70% of GDP or $10 trillion. Today the deficit is close to 100% of GDP at $14.3 trillion.  As per a recent AP report, President Obama had to scroll down his demands and would now be content with a $2.4 trillion debt ceiling increase to make it last beyond the 2012 elections.

No doubt, the President would like the deficit issue put on hold until he's re-elected. It seems like everyone has an agenda that takes priority over solving the actual debt issue. The whole game could be summed up as White House budget director Jack Lew put it: 'That all these ideas do is say let's kick the can down the road so that others will deal with it.'

This, by the way, is why the pre-election year of the Presidential election year cycles has seen gains consistently since 1939, because the incumbent party will do what it takes to remain in office longer.

A lose-lose Situation

The drawback of the deficit situation is that there is no easy way out. The government has to either cut spending (as in fewer benefits for Americans) or increase revenue (as in higher taxes).

Pick your poison. Either choice will kill the economy. Of course, you can extend and pretend, which is probably what will end up happening. No matter how much lip stick you have at your disposal, a pig remains a pig. The deficit is a big (red) pig.

What is worse, a $14.3 trillion deficit today, or a $16+ trillion deficit (according to Obama's wish) in 2012? Debt is like gangrene, dry rot or mold, it doesn't just go away, it gets worse (ask Greece, Ireland, Portugal or any of the other PIIGS).

Eliminate Variables

Using European (NYSEArca: VGK - News) debt troubles as a benchmark, there hasn't been a direct correlation between U.S. stocks and European debt. To generalize this even further, there hasn't been a real correlation between the U.S. deficit issue and U.S. stocks.

It was in June 2009 that Greece admitted to having a 'small' problem. Stocks rallied throughout the remainder of 2009, most of 2010 and some in 2011. The same is true for the MSCI EAFE ETF (NYSEArca: EFA - News) and Emerging Market ETF (NYSEArca: EEM - News).

Admittedly, the U.S. is a much bigger problem than the PIGGS, but the principal remains the same - basing investment decisions on the outcome of debt negotiations is tricky because the market has a mind of its own.

Since early 2010, every single time the major indexes a la S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), Dow (DJI: ^DJI), and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) sold off more than a few percent, it's been blamed on Greece. What many don't consider is that the market was helplessly overbought in January, and April 2010 and 2011 and due for a correction anyway. It seems like Greece has been a scapegoat more often than the actual cause. Perhaps it's a game of chicken and the egg. Which came first?

No Chicken-Egg Game

It has been more beneficial and profitable to rely on solid technical analysis rather than playing the chicken and egg game.

Technical analysis along with sentiment readings pegged a market bottom of the same degree at S&P 1,259 - 1,245. That was the opinion of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter on June 15 (one day before the 1,258 bottom):

'The 200-day SMA at 1,257 is sandwiched between the 1,255 Fibonacci projection level dating back to 2002 and this week's s1 at 1,259. Wednesday's low was at 1,261.9. If this low is not enough, there is a strong cluster of support at 1,259 - 1,245. A drop into the 1,259 - 1,245 range would prompt us to close out short positions and leg into long positions' (long positions were closed out at S&P 1,345 on July 7).

There was no fundamental good news on June 15 or 16. Some of the headlines featured on June 15 were:

'Is the bull market over? A look at four different sentiment measures suggests that more pain may await investors.' - Barrons

'Greek default could trigger chain reaction' - AP

'Confidence is eroding among U.S. factories, consumers' Bloomberg …’

 

 

 

Fed Keeping Market Afloat: QE Rally Not Sustainable http://regator.com/p/252365030/fed_keeping_market_afloat_qe_rally_not_sustainable By Matthew Claassen

 

 

Financial Crisis Phase II Is Ahead at Forbes Bert Dohmen  In late 2007, I wrote the book Prelude To Meltdown, predicting the global crisis that occurred the following year.  I now see a similar confluence of events that warns of phase II of the global crisis.

Once again I see all the canaries in the mine, which warned of the 2008 crisis. My just released book, Financial Apocalypse , provides the clues and the road map, with charts, of how my  indicators successfully predicted the meltdown that occurred in the fall of 2008. This book is a guide for detecting the next crisis whenever it occurs.  History repeats, or at minimum, it rhymes.

My work shows that the new recession has started. The May 9 issue of the Wellington Letter was headlined:  Return of the Double-Dip.  At the time, economists were looking for a great economy in the second half. Now they talk about a soft patch.  Over the past 33 years, we have called the start of every recession, often on the exact month, or within one month, of the official start as determined one year later by the official arbiter of recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

How can we be in recession now when the GDP still shows growth? Because of improper inflation adjustments. Real GDP growth, the headline number, is nominal growth minus the rate of inflation. However, inflation is far understated for political reasons.

Currently, the GDP deflator is 1.8%, which hardly reflects the true rise in prices. Therefore, what is counted as growth, is actually price increases. Actual inflation, according to free market economists who calculate inflation as it was done in 1980 before the politician re-engineered it, is now more than 11%. Using that to adjust GDP for inflation, would show that the economy is now in a very sharp contraction.

When the current euphoric earnings forecasts of Wall Street finally reflect that via significant earnings downgrades, the stock market will see a serious adjustment as well.

On July 18, Goldman Sachs (GS) substantially lowered its economic growth forecast. Marketwatch.com had this headline:  Goldman Sachs slashes Economic Forecasts. The next step will be for them to substantially reduce earnings forecasts for the S&P 500.

Will the phase II be as bad as the 2008 crisis? The last crisis was confined to the private sector, i.e. financial institutions. The next one will be involve the threatened default of entire countries. The last time, the central banks bailed out the financial firms and even Warren Buffett bailed out several firms. Who is big enough to bail out entire countries? Or will the term of too big to fail turn to too big to bail?

Bert Dohmen is editor of the Wellington Letter and author of Financial Apocalypse.

 

 

Retail Sales: The "Real" Consumer Remains in a Recession   Doug Short Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/author/doug-short#ixzz1TAkuAIOK

 

 

 

3 Top Crooks Still Roaming Free After the Economic Crash Wall St. Cheat Sheet July 25, 2011, The global economy and stock markets took a nose dive in 2008. But that hasn’t stopped some of the biggest masterminds from escaping a day of luxury.

Here are three financial crooks who are probably sipping daiquiris in Capri at our expense:

Lehman Brothers CEO Richard S. Fuld, Jr.

Few executives were as intimately and extensively involved in the downfall of their firms as Dick Fuld . At the time of the financial collapse, Fuld had worked for Lehman Brothers for nearly 40 years, and had been the firms chief executive since 1994. In that role, not only was he the longest-tenured CEO on Wall Street at the time of the financial crisis, but he was considered one of the best. He was named Institutional Investor magazines top chief executive in the private sector in 2006. The following year, he was paid more than $21 million in cash and stock on top of his base salary of $750,000 a year after the banks net profit rose 5% to a record $4.2 billion. And as recently as March 2008, Barrons listed him on their list of the 30 best CEOs, referring to him as Mr. Wall Street.

When the financial crisis hit, Fuld was one of the few executives to hold onto his position. He counted himself responsible for the company, but didnt realize just how much real estate loans and other toxic assets were weighing on his balance sheet. Instead, he remained confident in the firm that he helped grow from a negative profit in 1993. His hubris can somewhat be understood, given the firm hadnt reported a single quarterly loss since it went public. But Fuld was wrong. He overestimated the value of his firm, rejecting offers that could have saved it from collapse because they didnt adequately reflect what he felt the firm was worth.

We know that sub-prime mortgages were almost solely responsible for the financial crisis, and a large part of the Wall Streets fourth-largest investment banks worth was held in its mortgage business, where mortgages were re-packaged and sold to other investors, often for more than they were really worth. In fact, Lehman was the top U.S. underwriter of mortgage bonds in 2006 and 2007, accounting for roughly 10% of the market. As CEO, Fuld was responsible for buying those assets, which ultimately became toxic and impossible to unload. But whether or not Fuld can be held wholly responsible for the firms loan practices, he can be held responsible for the firms bankruptcy. As late as August 2008, after many CEOs had already been forced to resign, he rejected an offer by state-run Korea Development Bank to buy a 25% stake in Lehman for $4 billion to $6 billion.

Theres no question that the firm Fuld helped build, that hed been a part of since 1969, where he held the top position for 14 years, was criminally responsible for the financial crisis. In fact, it may be the most culpable, given the sheer volume of sub-prime mortgages underwritten by Lehman in the years leading up to the market collapse. On September 15, Lehman became the largest firm to file for bankruptcy in history, dealing a devastating blow to an already fragile financial system. A few weeks later, Fuld was summoned to appear before Congress as part of an inquisition. He was also investigated by three United States Attorneys offices in New York and New Jersey. But ultimately Fuld walked away from Lehman Brothers having pocketed nearly $500 million just in his last six years with the firm, years during which Lehmans sub-prime mortgage practice was contributing to what would ultimately cost taxpayers $700 billion in a government-issued bank bailout program. Fuld was never charged with or convicted of any crimes.

AIG Financial Products CEO Joseph J. Cassano

As a founding member and head of AIG Financial Products, Joe Cassano was responsible for selling hundreds of billions of dollars worth of credit protection in the form of credit-default swaps (CDS) on U.S. sub-prime mortgages, a form of insurance that didnt require that AIG put down any form of collateral. So when the financial crisis hit in 2008 and investment banks requested the insurance money for their collapsing derivatives, AIG was unable to pay what was owed and ultimately had to be bailed out by the government, receiving about $170 billion in taxpayer money.

Cassano resigned from his position at AIG FP in March 2008, having pocketed $280 million in cash and an additional $34 in bonuses. He even managed a $1 million-a-month retirement package that kept him on at AIG as a consultant. Cassano even went on record denying any fault on the part of AIG, saying,

We believed until late 2005 that banks and other mortgage originators were applying appropriate standards when writing mortgages. When we recognized well before many others that changes in the mortgage market likely presented increased risk for future deals, we decided to exit the subprime business. We thought the decision was appropriate, despite the lost profits at the time. With hindsight, the decision looks even more prudent.

Cassano went so far as to blame the bailout for losses on CDS contracts, saying there would have been few, if any, had they not been unwound by the bailout. Testifying before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, Cassano fully defended his firms CDS practices, outlining the careful approval and monitoring system that, specifically identified risk factors and provided an analysis of those risks. Cassano insisted that AIG had not miscalculated the risks of sub-prime mortgages.

However, Cassano was directly responsible for AIGs credit-default swaps program that put the firms many clients, including Goldman Sachs, in danger when it was unable to pay out on insurance claims. He essentially sold billions of dollars worth of vapor he failed to provide what had been paid for by the firms clients. That sounds remarkably like fraud, the grounds upon which many investors have filed suit against Cassano. In fact, regulators in both the U.S. and the U.K. investigated Cassanos acts to determine whether they had been criminal. But like just about every executive responsible for the financial crisis, Cassano was not ultimately charged with any wrongdoing, and remains a free man.

Countrywide Financial Chairman and CEO Angelo Mozilo

Ranked second by Condé Nast Portfolio on their list of the Worst American CEOs of All Time, Angelo Mozilo was charged in 2009 of insider trading and securities fraud by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Mozilo personally sold hundreds of millions of dollars in stock while using shareholder funds to buy back stock to support the share price. He is also responsible for what has been termed the Friends of Angelo VIP program under which several influential lawmakers, including Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, as well as many Fannie Mae employees and other Friends of Angelo, received discounted mortgages.

However, Mozilo was allowed to settle with the SEC on all charges. He agreed to pay $67.5 million in fines, the most ever exacted from an individual in connection with the 2008 financial crisis, and he was banned from ever serving as an officer or director of any other public company. Robert Khuzami, director of the SECs Division of Enforcement, said that Mozilos record penalty is the fitting outcome for a corporate executive who deliberately disregarded his duties to investors by concealing what he saw from inside the executive suite. But in settling, Mozilo was able to avoid a trial and any subsequent criminal charges, and was not required to acknowledge any wrongdoing.

Mozilos net worth has been estimated at roughly $600 million. And because of the indemnification agreement in his contract with Countrywide, the firm was responsible for paying roughly one-third of his fines, leaving Mozilo with a bill of $47.5 million thats less than 10% of his worth. Aside from Bernie Madoff, the only executive tied to the financial crisis to be criminally prosecuted and convicted, Mozilos settlement is the greatest punishment inflicted on any executive responsible for the countrys economic collapse, and falls desperately short of true justice.

 

 

 

Debt, Deficits and the Demise of the American Economy' - Author Peter Tanous Discusses Risk

 

 

 

US Equities Forecast and the Anticipated Path of the Market at Minyanville  Peter Prudden July 25, 2011 ‘… the headline risk remains to the downside and the bogey to lower equity prices in the short to intermediate term is concentrated on the U.S. Debt ceiling. At some point, not only must all developed economies deal with marking down to the level of income, but we must restructure large amounts of excess leverage. Until we accomplish this, growth will be problematic…’

 

 

 

Putin says U.S. is "parasite" on global economy [Unfortunately, this is very true. More unfortunately is the fact that most worldwide don’t realize that fact! I mean, think about it: pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america’s cancerous  perma wars, over-printed debased ‘Weimar’ paper ‘reserve’ currency, huge frauds in securities and otherwise, etc..  ]

 

 

 

3 Reasons Why This Summer Could Get Ugly  Simon Maierhofer, July 29, 2011 [ Well, before getting to the article, we all know why: because … ‘Sell in May, and go away!’ … Quite simple, as previously set forth here and elsewhere, you should have ‘sold in May, and went away!’ Why? Because … as Rosanne Rosanna Danna formerly of SNL fame and as her mama always used to say, ‘it’s always somethin’’ … but unfortunately, that somethin’ is not necessarily what they say it is. ]  It seems like the European Union and U.S. government are stuck in a never ending game of Whac-A-Mole. It seems like more moles are popping up more quickly, needing more force to be subdued (ironically the moles come back just as the problems do)…’

 

 

 

 

 

Mapping the Myths of the U.S. Economy - Stacy Curtin  In The Real State of America Atlas: Mapping the Myths and Truths of the United States, authors Cynthia Enloe and Joni Seager paint a vivid picture of life in the U.S., using a series of charts, graphics and short essays that cover almost every aspect of the nation's economy and society as a whole.

Not only do they give state-by-state comparisons, they show how the U.S. measures up to the rest of the world in areas such as health care, housing and defense. But while analyzing what it's really like to live in the U.S. today, they also uncovered a few "myths and truths" as the title of the book suggests.

Enloe and Seager joined The Daily Ticker's Aaron Task to share three of the most surprising misconceptions they uncovered.

#1 Land of Homeowners

The dream of owning a home is actually more the reality in other countries. In the book, the authors point to the most recent data, which show only 68% of Americans owned their home in 2002, compared with 92% in Hungry, 84% in Mexico, 72% in the U.K. and 71% in Australia.

"One of the things that is a cherished notion about America is we are a nation of homeowners, and homeownership has long been seen as kind of the bedrock of the American dream," says Seager. "I think the current economic crisis and the housing crisis is really shaking that American cherished view of ourselves as having easy access to homeownership."

This is evident in another stat laid out in the book, which shows 83% of people agreed that buying a home was a safe investment in 2003, compared with 70% in 2010. (See: Why I Am Never Going to Own a Home Again)  { Home ownership hits lowest level since 1965  NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Les Christie August 5, 2011 As the foreclosure crisis continues to wreak havoc on the housing market, a source of national pride has taken a sour turn. Home ownership is on the decline and, according to a recent Morgan Stanley report…’ }

#2 Land of Opportunity

Just like the ideal of owning a home, opportunity in this country is now also on the brink.

"Opportunity in this country means a chance for an education [and] a chance for a decent job that allows you to have a decent life," says Enloe, who points to two key factors that hinder people making it here in America.

#3 Land of Givers

While the U.S. does give more money in foreign aid than any other country in the world, as a percentage of GDP it falls way behind many other nations.

Whereas Sweden gives almost 1% of its GDP in 2008, the U.S. gave 0.19%.

"I think it really should shake Americans' self-perception of two things," says Enloe. "[One] is cutting foreign aid actually the ticket to balancing the budget, but also how do we shape up compared to other countries' generosity?"

 

 

 

Debt Deal Is A Blank Check at Forbes

 

 

U.S. Economic Pessimism Grows - Stacy Curtin  While Democrats and Republicans were arguing over how to prevent the U.S. from a default, families across the country have become increasingly concerned about the overall state of the economy, according to the American Enterprise Institute's latest compilation of recent polls taken in various regions.

Friday's worse than expected GDP numbers only reaffirm this notion. The U.S. economy grew less than expected in the second quarter at 1.3%, but the bigger shock came after Q1 GDP was revised down to 0.4% from 1.9%. These numbers suggest the country could be headed for another recession and Americans are definitely feeling the pain. (See: 2011 Is Proving to Be a Horrible Year For the Economy)

One of the most disconcerting findings in the AEI report is a CBS/New York Times poll from June. It showed that over the last year, more Americans have come to believe the current economic downturn is part of a long-term permanent decline and that the economy will never fully recover. In October 2010, 28% of respondents agreed with that statement, versus 39% last month.

"Americans are so pessimistic about the economy now ... . And the level of public pessimism is actually higher than the deep 1981-82 recession overall," due to grim personal outlooks on a number of issues like jobs, retirement and health care, says Karlyn Bowman, a senior fellow at AEI who co-authored the report. "Their negative sentiments are affecting the way they feel about their family's future, and interestingly, the way they feel about their state governments. Usually negative attitudes about the national government don't seep into attitudes about the state government, but this time it is really different. This negative, gloomy mood is pervasive.

Speaker of the House John Boehner echoed these concerns Thursday before one of the many failed House votes to raise the country's debt ceiling. "This is a challenging time for our country," he said. "Americans are worried about their jobs. They're worried about our economy. And they're worried about our debt."

Since the polls in the report were conducted before the debt-ceiling debate really began heating up over the last few weeks, one might conclude that if the same questions were asked today the responses would be even more pessimistic.

Here are other key findings from the AEI report:

Job anxiety: In the past six months, about 5% of Americans surveyed had lost their job, two in 10 said a family member had lost a job, and six in 10 knew someone who lost a job.

In June 2011, 58 percent were very or somewhat worried they could lose a job in the next 12 months. Nearly eight in 10 say jobs are difficult to find where they live. Around a quarter are worried about benefit or pay cuts.

Cutting back: Americans are cutting back on everything from health care to haircuts. Fewer than four in 10 say their personal financial situation is in excellent or good shape right now. Almost as many people say they are falling behind as believe they are getting ahead, but the vast majority describe their financial situation as having just enough money to maintain their standard of living. Inflation worries are high and steady.

Retirement: There's been a dramatic drop in the number of Americans who say they have enough money to retire. In 2002, around six in 10 believed they would have enough money. In the latest survey by Gallup in April, only about four in 10 say they will.

 

 

10 Reasons We Are Heading for a Recession

 

 

USAGOLD RoundTable: Debt Ceiling Resolution EU Sovereign Debt Crisis Aug 3rd, 2011 15:53 by News Were pleased to present our latest RoundTable video discussion with our staff experts George Cooper, Peter Grant and Jonathan Kosares {Immediate access here} Excerpt: Now that the debt ceiling debate is over, and the dust is settling, the market is beginning to get a picture of what, if anything, was accomplished, and can be expected moving forward. The $2 trillion in cuts over ten years amounts to a small dent in our annual deficit, suggesting that the U.S. will continue to increase its debt to GDP ratio over the coming decade. The cuts suggested will merely slow, not reverse, this trend. In the end, this debt deal is nothing more than a giant kick of the can down the road, and a short road at that. The hike to the debt ceiling looks to only buy about six months, so this issue is set to be revisited next year. The market has digested this resolution as such, and gold has responded sharply higher, rising $60 in two days. The DOW meanwhile has come under significant pressure, shedding over 800 points in a week. Things across the pond are not looking any better. The credit facility set up by the ECB is insufficient at best, and contagion remains an enormous risk. Spreads on sovereign debt in Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal and Ireland are at or near all time highs. As talks of dramatically expanding the credit facility heat up, were left to wonder if its even possible for Europe to go big enough to calm market jitters. With Peter Grant, George Cooper, and Jonathan Kosares. (24 min) The Daily Market Report Aug 1st, 2011 12:01 by PG  Relief? What Relief? http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum Late last night when party leaders and the President announced that they had reached a bipartisan deal that would allow the debt ceiling to be raised, gold dropped about 1%. Global stocks rallied in relief and briefly, ever so briefly, gold was out of favor. However, as the details were revealed, doubts were reignited: Doubts as to whether such legislation could actually make it to the Presidents desk. Doubts that the deal would avert a downgrade of US sovereign debt.While the CBO scores the package as accomplishing $2.1 trillion in spending cuts over the next 10-years, the CBO baseline also has the deficit rising $6.7 trillion over the same period. The premise apparently being that were working our way to actual cutting by cutting to slow the pace of the nations proliferate spending. In actuality and as evidenced below that CBO baseline may prove to be way too optimistic.What really lit an intraday fire under gold today was the big miss on US July ISM, which plunged to 50.9. The market was expecting a modest downtick to 55.0 from 55.3 in June. On the heals of last weeks much weaker than expected quarterly GDP data, it has become abundantly apparent that the US economy has slowed to just above stall-speed. David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff and Associates, noted last week that once the economy slows to a growth rate of 1.6% it has proven historically to be a point of no return and recession follows. With Q1 downgraded to just 0.36% and Q2 an anemic 1.3% and likely subject to future negative revision as well the writing may well be on the wall.The debt deal is a short-term kick of the can that at least initially focuses on spending cuts. However, with no mitigation of the uncertainties that have kept private capital sidelined for the past two-years of the so-called recovery, there is little reason to think that a more robust economy is just around the corner. In fact, the opposite may be true. That realization, tipped in by the ISM data, has further escalated the QE3 talk, which prompted gold to retest the record high set Friday at 1632.39. Relief? What relief?If we get another negative surprise on Friday when July nonfarm payrolls comes out, as the ISM employment index suggests we might, the QE3 talk will intensify ever more in the weeks ahead of the Feds Jackson Hole summit. Consensus on July payrolls are running around +100k, although we could see some tempering of those expectations in light of the ISM data.Even with the announcement of the debt ceiling deal, the dollar remains on the ropes, falling to new record lows against the Swiss franc and the yen. If this deal makes it through both Houses of Congress and is signed by the President, it is just another kick of the can and a very short one at that down the road. And with the specter of yet another round of quantitative easing hanging over the market, there is little incentive to buy dollars. Now the BoJ is once again contemplating direct intervention in the market, as I suspect the SNB is. If there are concerted efforts to slow the rise of these currencies, it may make gold an even more alluring option.

 

 

S&P downgrades US credit rating from AAA The United States has lost its sterling credit rating from Standard & Poor's.

 

 

U.S. triple-A debt rating cut by Standard & Poors Aug 5, 2011 The United States late Friday lost its triple-A debt rating from Standard & Poors for the first tie ...
 

 

Text of S&P downgrade of U.S. rating  06 Aug 2011 The following is the text of Standard & Poors downgrade of the United States. ...
 

 

 

S&P Shocks the U.S. with Credit Downgrade to AA+ from Prestigious AAA Rating  Wall St. Cheat Sheet  August 5, 2011,

Standard & Poors is out with an official downgrade of the U.S. credit rating:

We have lowered our long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to AA+ from AAA and affirmed the A-1+ short-term rating.

We have also removed both the short- and long-term ratings from CreditWatch negative.

The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the governments medium-term debt dynamics.

More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policymaking and political institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic challenges to a degree more than we envisioned when we assigned a negative outlook to the rating on April 18, 2011.

Since then, we have changed our view of the difficulties in bridging the gulf between the political parties over fiscal policy, which makes us pessimistic about the capacity of Congress and the Administration to be able to leverage their agreement this week into a broader fiscal consolidation plan that stabilizes the governments debt dynamics any time soon.

The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. We could lower the long-term rating to AA within the next two years if we see that less reduction in spending than agreed to, higher interest rates, or new fiscal pressures during the period result in a higher general government debt trajectory than we currently assume in our base case.

Investing Insights: Is the Debt Ceiling Raise Bullish for Gold?

 

 

 

13 Reasons Why The U.S. Is Now OFFICIALLY BANKRUPT Daily Bail | Stop the budget lies; there are NO cuts. House passes bill to INCREASE spending by $7 trillion over the next 10 years. ATTENTION IDIOTS IN THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA Stop The Budget Lies There Are NO Cuts House Passes Bill To INCREASE Spending By $7 Trillion Over The Next 10 Years

Lies, Damn Lies And Government Budgets

I am so pissed off by the misreporting I could spit Ken Lewis hairballs.

#1) Corporate journalists and financial pundits know NOTHING about budgets.

#2) The Boehner led House passed legislation this evening that INCREASES spending by $7 TRILLION over the next ten years versus a baseline budget that would have increased spending by $9.5 TRILLION over the same period.

#3) CBO said today that LESS than 2% of the decrease in the GROWTH of spending will come before the 2012 elections. The remainder come after the election.

#4) Defense and war machine spending will grow at 3% per year instead of 4% per year.

#5) This was nothing but an agreement to agree at a later date to look for reductions in planned spending GROWTH.

#6) A Super Congress will decide on a mix of tax increases and reductions in planned spending growth to meet the targets at a later date.

#7) No one in Congress even considered Ron Pauls simple plan, now endorsed by Time Magazine as well as liberal economist Dean Baker, to wipe out $1.6 trillion in fake debt owned by the Federal Reserve. Debt that we owe to ourselves, that is entirely legal to wipe away.

#8.) CBO says under this plan, the national debt will INCREASE from $14.4 TRILLION currently to more than $25 TRILLION over the next 10 years.

#9) The assumption for #8 above assumes the economy grows at 3% per year over the next 10 years, and that Treasury interest rates stay at historic lows. When rates increase, and bet your life that they will, interest on the debt will increase and so will annual deficits, leading to a national debt much higher than the $25 TRILLION that CBO estimates.

#10) Regarding Treasury rates and interest on the debt, get educated about a concept called DURATION RISK. Turbo Geithner and his MENSA bed-fellows at Treasury have chosen to finance the great majority of recent and future borrowing in short-term bills, which means that they have to be rolled over frequently. This is perhaps the least-discussed and most dangerous issue related to Treasury debt.

#11) If S&P or Moodys has the sack to downgrade the U.S. AAA rating, a Sovereign CDS default will be triggered and Global Financial Armageddon will be unleashed.

#12) The bill passed by Boehner tonight was the BEST they could do after 6 weeks of fighting.

#13) Due to #12, the United States is officially f*cked.

Thank you and good night.

 

 

 

US Closer to ‘Junk Bond’ Status Than Triple-A: Bove Aug 9th, 2011 14:41 by News August 9 (CNBC) — ‘  “You’ve got a company which is losing about $1.4 trillion this year, probably will lose somewhere around a trillion dollars over the next couple of years. It owes $14.4 trillion (and) over the next five years that will get up to $20 trillion,” the Rochdale Securities analyst said.“So there’s no likelihood whatsoever that this particular company is able to pay down from its own resources the amount of debt that it has, nor is there any likelihood that it’s going to get rid of its deficit,” he added. “If that was a real company, of course, that would be a junk bond.”“I still would expect to see a thousand-point down day at some point in this market as people come to realize there has been a complete change in the financial structure of the world,” he said’

 

 

 

 

If U.S. Slides Into Recession, S&P 500 Could Drop To 830 at Forbes [The pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt u.s. is already in recession (actually worse)!  Financial Crisis Phase II Is Ahead at Forbes Bert Dohmen ‘ In late 2007, I wrote the book Prelude To Meltdown, predicting the global crisis that occurred the following year.  I now see a similar confluence of events that warns of phase II of the global crisis… My work shows that “the new recession has started.”… Over the past 33 years, we have called the start of every recession, often on the exact month, or within one month, of the official start as determined one year later by the official arbiter of recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)… However, inflation is far understated for political reasons. Currently, the GDP deflator is 1.8%, which hardly reflects the true rise in prices. Therefore, what is counted as “growth,” is actually price increases. Actual inflation, according to free market economists who calculate inflation as it was done in 1980 before the politician re-engineered it, is now more than 11%. Using that to adjust GDP for inflation, would show that the economy is now in a very sharp contraction…’FLASHBACK HERE: Selling In May Is Very Good Advice This Year  Harding   Remember: Sell in May and Go Away and If You’ve Not Sold by June, You’re a Loon! ‘ ‘Albert Edwards: Thinks the Market Could Fall 70%’ PRECHTER: We're Still In A Massive Bear Market And Stocks Will Crash To New Lows     Stock Market: 4 Current Warning Signs  Navin ‘…1) The 5-year high in the level of insider corporate stock sales is telling. At 565 sells for every 1 buy, it’s never been higher.   Why The Dow Will Plunge To 7,000 By 24/7 Wall St.    S&P Poised For Dropoff, Says Initial Jobless Claims  Forbes / Maureen Farrell    ]

 

 

 

 

3 Ring Circus: Geithner, Buffett, and Obama Wall St. Cheat Sheet ‘…Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner , who said last April that there was no risk the U.S. could loose its AAA credit rating, voiced his thoughts on the downgrade.  He said, Theyve handled themselves very poorly, and theyve shown a stunning lack of knowledge about the basic U.S. fiscal budget math.  What exactly are they misunderstanding? The U.S. is the largest debtor nation in the world, and spending outlays vastly outnumber revenue.  Geithner went on to say that U.S. bonds were just as safe after the downgrade as before, and predicted that China and investors would remain strong buyers of government debt.On Monday morning, with stock futures heading sharply lower, Warren Buffett tried to inject confidence into the financial markets.  Buffett explained that he believes the U.S. debt is still rated AAA, and the downgrade does not change his mind about government debt.  In fact, the legendary investor holds $47 billion in cash and equivalents as of June 30th.  He said, If I have to buy Treasuries at zero percent yield, I will.  At least the large cash hoard shows that Buffett puts his money where his mouth is.  However, one also has to wonder if Buffetts shareholdings in Moodys , a rival credit agency to S&P, has anything to do with his criticism of S&P.  To add fuel to the fire, S&P also cut Buffetts Berkshire Hathaway outlook from stable to negative.Not to be outdone by Warren Buffetts AAA endorsement, President Obama made a public announcement of his own on Monday.  Despite Americas financial hardship across the board, the President said, Id give U.S. a quadruple-A rating.  This was puzzling for many reasons ( besides the fact there is no quadruple-A rating).  America has a hard enough time keeping its AA+ or AAA rating, let alone achieving some pipe dream quadruple-A rating.  S&P may be the credit agency causing controversy now, but its not the only credit agency to downgrade America.  Chinas credit rating agency Dagong ,  recently cut Americas debt rating from A+ to A, with a negative outlook.  Dagong had already cut Americas credit rating last November from AA to A+ after QE2 was announced.By the end of Monday, it was announced that the Senate banking committee had started a probe into the downgrade actions of S&P.  However, the damage is already done, confidence is broken in the markets.   Gold constantly reaching new highs is a clear example of this.  Perhaps the Senate banking committee should probe Fitch and Moodys and investigate why they still have AAA ratings on U.S. debt?...

 

 

 

Edwards says this has nothing to do with that downgrade   http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/08/09/648126/edwards-says-this-has-nothing-to-do-with-that-downgrade

Posted by Izabella Kaminska on Aug 09 2011

Thought the current turmoil was down to the downgrade of US debt? Wrong!

According to Societe Generales uber bear, Albert Edwards, this has absolutely nothing to do with S&P, the White House, Tea Party etc. Its the economy stupid:

The simple fact is that the global economy is falling back into recession or indeed is already in recession. Equity markets were sliding before the downgrade and bond yields were reacting as one would have expected to the dire economic data. The S&P downgrade may have caused the breach of critical support levels of 1250 on the S&P, but anything could have caused that breach and triggered the technical rout. Expect some sort of retest of this neckline before the market ultimately meets its date with destiny.

Recent US GDP revisions revealed QE2 to be an abject failure as far as producing an economic recovery is concerned with dire 0.9% annualised growth reported in H1 2011. Yet to a man with a hammer, everything is a nail. Hence despite rising core inflation, there is certainly a level of economic and/or market pain to prompt QE3. But expect the real fireworks to occur when the adrenalin rush of QE3 wears off even quicker than QE2.

There are still some diehard happy clappies out there who think we are going to avert recession and the markets will recover. Yet US GDP growth has now fallen below the wellknown 2% stall speed, below which the economy does not seem to be able to regain altitude but instead crashes directly into recession.

Which means its time to come to terms with the fact that recession 2.0 (or was it ever really a recovery?) is on its way whether you like it or not:

At the current (Q2) rate of 1.6% yoy GDP growth, my fellow bear (realist?), David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff, points out in the chart below that a US recession is almost certainly a done deal (never say certain, as in 1956, when recession was temporarily averted for all of nine months). But with this sort of record the onus is now on the optimists to demonstrate why on earth they still believe in a second-half recovery and growth in 2012.

Now, anyone who bought into the dulcet tones of the bullish brigrade is likely to do very badly. A fact which will come as hubris. In Edwards opinion if you were dumb enough to listen to that story, well you reap what you sow:

And in the same way that a country is said to get the government it deserves, I believe the market gets the macro commentators it deserves: i.e. perpetually bullish analysts, taking no personal risk with their never-ending consensus chatter.

After all it was always pretty obvious what was going to happen.

It was just a question of when, rather than if:

Put into its proper Ice Age context, the events of the past decade are entirely explicable. As we see a short-lived economic recovery failing only two years into the cycle and a plunge back into recession, we remind investors that this was exactly the Ice Age template that Japan showed us. A fragile recovery undermined by private sector deleveraging collapses as a semi-bankrupt government tries to rein in runaway deficits.

What next? Well, its Ice Age 3.

Heres how it goes and this is very much of the moment (especially if you are a London resident):

We are now entering the third phase of the Ice Age when another cyclical failure combines with a secular de-rating of equities and re-rating of government bonds. I and many others have been pointing out for a long time now the simple fact that the global economy has been living way beyond its means for years. A massive transfer of income to the very rich has occurred while middle class real incomes stagnated. The middle classes only tolerated this because Central Bankers created housing booms to keep the impoverished middle classes borrowing and spending to give them the illusion of prosperity and stop them from revolting.

I believe the Fed and Bank of England, in particular, were wholly complicit in this daylight robbery (see link). These unsustainable private sector, debt mountains were transferred to the public sector in 2008 to prevent the adjustment to the depression-era reality that the debt unwind would undoubtedly have brought about. Yet, those debts are as unsustainable in the hands of the public sector as they were in the private sector.

Central bank polices havent changed though. Print and print and print. And if that doesnt work, print some more. And as London burns, the point I have always made is that the US and UK are not like Japan in one very special way. Although Japan suffered a decade of pain it is a very homogenous, equal society. The UK and US are not. Some readers may not know that rioting and looting has broken out around London. While I hear the UK politicians denounce the looters as common criminals (which of course they are), I cant help but think that Louis XVI in 1789 and Tsar Nicolas II in 1917 might have said the same thing.

Crikey,

Here comes the revolution. Prepare.

 

 

 

Fed Move, Pavlovian Market Response: Reactions  The Wall Street Journal  Mark Gongloff  Paul Krugman scoffs at the Fed-fueled rally:

The Fed didnt announce a new policy. And despite what some press reports said, it didnt even commit to keeping rates low; all it did was say that if the economy stays weak, rates will stay low well, duh and that it might think about doing other stuff one of these days.