What
I am about to share with you is quite stunning. A well-respected
financial expert that correctly predicted the last two stock market crashes is
now warning that we are right on the verge of the next one. John Hussman
is a former professor of economics and international finance at the University
of Michigan, and the information in his latest weekly market comment is staggering.
Since 1970, there have only been a handful of times when a combination of
market signals that Hussman uses have indicated that a major market peak has
been reached. In 1972, 2000 and 2007 each of those peaks was followed by
a dramatic stock market crash. Now, for the first time since the last
financial crisis, all four of those signals appeared once again during the week
of July 17th. If Hussmans analysis is correct, this could very well mean that
the next great stock market crash in the United States is imminent. (Read More....)
It was an excellent article by Jim Quinn of
the Burning Platform that first alerted me to Hussmans latest warning.
If you dont
follow Quinns
work already, you should, because it is excellent.
When someone is repeatedly correct about
the financial markets, we should all start paying attention. Back in late
2007, Hussman warned us about
what was coming in 2008, but most people did not listen.
Now he is sounding the alarm again.
According to Hussman, when there is a confluence of four key market indicators,
that tells us that the market has peaked and is in danger of crashing.
The following comes from Newsmax
He
cited the metric among the indicators that foreshadowed declines after peaks in
1972, 2000 and 2007:
*Less
than 27 percent of investment advisers polled by Investors Intelligence who say
they are bearish.
*Valuations
measured by the Shiller price-to-earnings ratio are greater than 18 times.
*Less
than 60 percent of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day moving averages.
*Record
high on a weekly closing basis.
The most recent warning was the week ended July 17,
2015, Hussman said. Its often said that they
dont
ring a bell at the top, and thats true in many cycles. But its interesting
that the same ding has been heard at the most extreme peaks among them.
It
is quite rare for the market to set a new record high on a weekly closing basis
and have more than 40 percent of stocks below their 200-day moving averages at
the same time. That is why a confluence of all these factors is fairly
uncommon. Hussman elaborated on this in his recent report
The
remaining signals (record high on a weekly closing basis, fewer than 27% bears,
Shiller P/E greater than 18, fewer than 60% of S&P 500 stocks above their
200-day average), are shown below. Whats interesting about these warnings is how closely
they identified the precise market peak of each cycle. Internal divergences
have to be fairly extensive for the S&P 500 to register a fresh overvalued,
overbullish new high with more than 40% of its component stocks already falling
its
evidently a rare indication of a last hurrah. The 1972 warning occurred
on November 17, 1972, only 7 weeks and less than 4% from the final high before
the market lost half its value. The 2000 warning occurred the week of March 24,
2000, marking the exact weekly high of that bull run. The 2007 instance spanned
two consecutive weekly closing highs: October 5 and October 12. The final daily
high of the S&P 500 was October 9 right in
between. The most recent warning was the week ended July 17, 2015.
The
following is the chart that immediately followed the paragraph in his report
that you just read
When
I first took a look at that chart I could hardly believe it.
It
appears that Hussmans signals are able to indicate major stock market
crashes with stunning precision.
And
considering the fact that we just hit a new ding for the first time since
the last financial crisis, what Hussman is saying is more than just a little
bit ominous.
According
to Hussman this is not just a recent phenomenon either. Even though
advisory sentiment figures were not available back in 1929, he believes that
his indicators would have given a signal that a market crash was imminent in August of that year as well
Though
advisory sentiment figures arent available prior to the mid-1960s, imputed data suggest
that additional instances likely include the two consecutive weeks of
August 19, 1929 and August 26, 1929. We can infer unfavorable market
internals in that instance because we know that cumulative NYSE breadth was
declining for months before the 1929 high. The week of the exact market peak
would also be included except that stocks closed down that week after
registering a final high on September 3, 1929. Another likely instance, based
on imputed sentiment data, is the week of November 10, 1961, which was
immediately followed by a market swoon into June 1962.
Of
course the past is the past, and what has happened in the past will not
necessarily happen in the future.
So
is Hussman wrong this time? With all of the other things that are happening
in the financial world right now, I certainly would not bet against him.
Other
financial professionals are concerned that a market crash could be imminent as
well. The following comes from a piece authored by Andrew Adams
More than 13% of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange are at 52-week
lows, which is about 6 standard deviations above the average over the last
three years (1.62%) and an
extreme only seen one other time during said period (last October when the
S&P 500 was percentage points away from a 10% correction).
This
dichotomy has created what I believe to be the biggest question about the stock
market right now have we already experienced a stealth correction in
the majority of stocks that will soon come to an end or will the market leaders
finally succumb to the weight of the laggards and join in on the sell-off? The
answer to this could end up being worth at least $2.2 trillion, which is how
much money would essentially be wiped out of the stock market if we finally get
the much-discussed 10% correction in the overall market (the total
U.S. stock market capitalization was $22.5 trillion as of June 30, according to
the Center for Research in Security Prices).
Sometimes,
a picture is worth more than a thousand words. I could share many more
quotes from the experts about why they are concerned about a potential stock
market collapse, but instead I want to share with you a bonus chart that Zero Hedge
posted on Tuesday
Do
you understand what that is saying?
In
2007 and 2008, junk bonds started crashing well before stocks did.
Now,
we are witnessing a similar divergence. If a similar pattern holds up
this time, stocks have a long, long way to fall.
Like
Hussman and so many others, I believe that a stock market crash and a new
financial crisis are imminent.
The
month of August is usually a slow month in the financial world, so hopefully we
can get through it without too much chaos. But once we roll into the
months of September and October we will officially be in the danger zone.
Keep
an eye on China, keep an eye on Europe, and keep listening for serious
trouble at too
big to fail
banks all over the planet.
The
next several months are going to be extremely significant, and we all need to
be getting ready while we still can.
Most nations in South America are
either already experiencing an economic recession or are right on the verge of
one. In general, South American economies are very heavily dependent on
exports, and right now they are being absolutely shredded by the twin blades of
a commodity price collapse
and a skyrocketing U.S. dollar. During the boom times in South America,
governments and businesses loaded up on tremendous amounts of debt. Since
much of that debt was denominated in U.S. dollars, South American borrowers are
now finding that it takes much more of their own local currencies to service
and pay back those debts. At the same time, there is much less demand for
commodities being produced by South American nations in the international
marketplace. As a result, South America is heading into a full-blown financial
crisis which will cause years of pain for the entire continent. (Read More....)
Can
you feel the panic in the air? CNN Moneys Fear & Greed Index measures
the amount of fear in the financial world on a scale from 0 to 100. The
closer it is to zero, the higher the level of fear. Last Monday, the
index was sitting at a reading of 36. As I write this article, it has
fallen to 7. The financial turmoil which began last week is
threatening to turn into an avalanche. On Sunday night, we witnessed the second
largest one day stock market collapse in China ever, and this pushed stocks all
over the planet into the red. Meanwhile, the twin blades of an emerging
market currency crisis and a commodity price crash are
chewing up economies that are dependent on the export of natural resources all
over the globe. For a long time, I have been warning about what would
happen in the second half of 2015, and now it is here. The following is a
summary of the financial carnage that we have seen over the past 24 hours
(Read More....)
Was last week a preview of things
to come? There are quite a few people out there that believe that the stock
market would begin to decline in July, and that appears to be precisely what is
happening. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by more than 530
points. It was the biggest one week decline that we have seen so far in 2015,
and some are suggesting that this could only be just the beginning. By just
about any measurement that you might want to use, the stock market is
overvalued. But we have been in this bubble for so long that many people
have come to believe that this is the new normal. In fact, earlier today someone that I know dropped
me a line and suggested that our financial overlords may be able to use the
tools at their disposal to get this current bubble to persist indefinitely.
Unfortunately, the truth is that no financial bubble ever lasts forever, and
right now some very alarming things are starting to happen behind the scenes.
Over the past couple of weeks, the smart money has been dumping stocks like
crazy, and the lack of liquidity in the bond markets is beginning to become
acute. Could it be possible that another great financial crisis is just
around the corner? (Read More....)
If
you are looking for a canary in a coal mine type of warning for the
entire global economy, you have a whole bunch to pick from right now. Dr. Copper just hit a six year low,
Morgan Stanley is warning that this could be the worst oil price crash in 45 years, the Chinese economy is
suddenly stalling out, and world trade is falling at the fastest pace that we
have seen since the last financial crisis. In order not to see all of the
signs that are pointing toward a global economic slowdown, you would have to be
willingly blind. In recent months, I have been writing article after article detailing how the exact same patterns
that happened just before the stock market crash of 2008 are playing out once
again. We are watching a slow-motion train wreck unfold right before our
eyes, and things are only going to get worse from here. (Read More....)
If
we were going to see a stock market crash in the United States in the fall of
2015 (to use a hypothetical example), we would expect to see commodity prices
begin to crash a few months ahead of time. This is precisely what
happened just before the great financial crisis of 2008, and we are watching
the exact same thing happen again right now. On Wednesday, commodities
got absolutely pummeled, and at this point the Bloomberg Commodity Index is
down a whopping 26 percent over the past twelve months. When global
economic activity slows down, demand for raw materials sinks and prices
drop. So important global commodities such as copper, iron ore, aluminum,
zinc, nickel, lead, tin and lumber are all considered to be key leading indicators that can tell us a lot
about where things are heading next. And what they are telling us right
now is that we are rapidly approaching a global economic meltdown.
(Read More....)
Did you know that the percentage
of children in the United States that are living in poverty is actually
significantly higher than it was back in 2008? When I write about an economic collapse, most people think of a
collapse of the financial markets. And without a doubt, one is coming very shortly,
but let us not neglect the long-term economic collapse that is already
happening all around us. In this article, I am going to share with you a
bunch of charts and statistics that show that economic conditions are already
substantially worse than they were during the last financial crisis in a whole
bunch of different ways. Unfortunately, in our 48 hour news cycle world,
a slow and steady decline does not produce many sexy headlines. Those of us that
are news junkies (myself included) are always looking for things that will
shock us. But if you stand back and take a broader view of things, what
has been happening to the U.S. economy truly is quite shocking. The
following are 12 ways that the U.S. economy is already in worse shape than it
was during the depths of the last recession
(Read More....)
There has been so much attention on
Greece in recent weeks, but the truth is that Greece represents only a very tiny
fraction of an unprecedented global debt bomb which threatens to explode at any
moment. As you are about to see, there are 24 nations that are currently
facing a full-blown debt crisis, and there are 14 more that are rapidly heading
toward one. Right now, the debt to GDP ratio for the entire planet is up
to an all-time record high of 286 percent, and globally there is approximately
200 TRILLION dollars of debt on the books. That breaks down to about
$28,000 of debt for every man, woman and child on the entire planet. And
since close to half of the population of the world lives on less than 10
dollars a day, there is no way that all of this debt can ever be repaid.
The only solution under our current system is to kick the can down the road
for as long as we can until this colossal debt pyramid finally collapses in
upon itself. (Read More....)
Could
you live without debt? Most Americans say that they cannot.
According to a brand new Pew survey,
approximately 7 out of every 10 Americans believe that debt is a necessity in their
lives,
and approximately 8 out of every 10 Americans actually have debt right
now. Most of us like to think that someday we will get out of the hole and quit being debt
slaves, but very few of us ever actually accomplish this. That is because
the entire system is designed to trap us in debt before we even get out into
the real
world
and keep us in debt until we die. Sadly, most Americans dont even realize what is
being done to them. (Read More...)
Thanks
to the Obama
recovery,
the rate of homeownership in the United States has fallen to the lowest level in
48 years. The percentage of Americans that own a home is widely
considered to be a key indicator of the health of the middle class, and we have
just learned that during the second quarter of 2015 that number dropped from 63.7 percent to
63.4 percent. It is now the lowest that it has been since
1967. Unlike a lot of other government economic statistics, this
one is fairly difficult to manipulate. Either someone owns a home or they
do not. And what the homeownership rate is telling us is that the
percentage of Americans that can qualify for a mortgage has been falling dramatically.
Just take a look at the following chart. This is not just a decline this is a complete and
utter collapse
(Read More...)
Right now, the financial world is
focused on the
breathtaking stock market crash in China, but dont forget to keep an eye
on what is happening in Europe. Collectively, the European Union has a
larger population than the United States, a larger economy than either the U.S.
or China, and the banking system in Europe is the biggest on the planet by
far. So what happens in Europe really matters, and at this point the
European economy is absolutely primed for a meltdown. European debt
levels have never been higher, European banks are absolutely loaded with
non-performing loans and high-risk derivatives, and the unemployment rate in
the eurozone is currently more than double the unemployment rate in the United
States. In all the euphoria surrounding the deal that temporarily kept
Greece in the eurozone, I think that people have forgotten that the economic
and financial fundamentals in Europe have continued to deteriorate.
Whether Greece ultimately leaves the eurozone or not, a great financial crisis
is inevitably coming to Europe. It is just a matter of time. (Read More...)
There
is very little that the entire world seems to agree upon, but there is one very
frightening trend that is now taking hold literally all over the globe. A
passionate hatred of Christianity is sweeping across the planet, and very few
global leaders have been willing to step forward and speak out against this
rising persecution of Christians. In many parts of the Middle East, Africa and
Asia, believers are being relentlessly attacked by extremists, churches are
being destroyed, and laws are being passed to try to prevent the spread of the
Christian faith. In some areas, the violence has become so extreme that
Christians knowingly risk their own lives just to go to church services each
week. Would you risk your life to go to church? In North America and Europe,
the persecution is often more subtle. Even though violent attacks are still
fairly rare, Christian beliefs are being undermined by new laws, comedians and
television shows regularly mock the Christian faith, and many employers will
immediately mentally disqualify a potential candidate for a job if they
discover that an individual is a Bible-believing Christian. Sadly, this is just
the beginning. In the years ahead, those that choose to be followers of Jesus
Christ will face even greater persecution than we have seen already. (Read More...)
Just when you think that the
depravity of the United States cannot possibly get any worse, something else
comes along to surprise us. Many of the things that you are about to read
about in this article are incredibly disturbing, but it is important that we
face the truth about how far this nation has fallen. There are times when
I will be having a conversation with someone else about the state of our
country, and the other person will say something like this: Wow America is really going
down the toilet. At one time, I would have totally agreed with
that. But at this point I would have to say that we have already circled
the bowl and have made it all the way through to the other end. Our
society is absolutely addicted to entertainment (most of which is utter trash),
tens of millions of us are hooked on drugs (both legal and illegal), and we
have murdered more than 56 million of our own babies. Our financial
system is consumed with greed, we treat our military veterans like human garbage, and most of our leaders in Washington D.C. are
deeply corrupt. In America today, 64 percent of all men view pornography
at least once per month, it is estimated that one out of every four girls
is sexually abused before they become adults, and we have the highest teenage
pregnancy rate in the entire industrialized world. We like to think that
we are an example to the rest of the
world, but the only example that we are setting is a bad one. The
following are 11 signs that America has already gone down the toilet
(Read More...)
#1 All over the United States, the body parts of
aborted babies are being bought and sold, and the U.S. government gives the
organization at the heart of this sick industry hundreds of millions of dollars a year. This
week, another incredibly shocking undercover video has been released which has
given us even more evidence of what
Planned Parenthood is really up to
The
most recent video shows a luncheon conversation with Dr. Mary Gatter, who
currently serves as president of Planned Parenthoods Medical Directors Council and Medical
Director of Planned Parenthoods Pasadena abortion clinic.
In the video, Gatter is heard haggling over the price she will charge
for intact fetal body parts and is concerned that she will be low-balled. She asks for at
least $75 per specimen, but wants to see what other Planned Parenthood
abortionists are getting to make sure she gets similar compensation so she can
buy an expensive sports car.
Its been years since Ive talked about
compensation, so let me just figure out what others are getting and if this is
in the ballpark, thats fine. If its still low, we can bump it up. I want a Lamborghini, Gatter laughed.
This
is wickedness at a level that is almost unspeakable, and it is being bankrolled
by the U.S. government.
Lets hope that I want a Lamborghini gets plastered all over
the Internet hundreds of millions of times. I encourage everyone to get
on Facebook and Twitter and start blasting out messages like this one to
everyone that they know
If we cannot even stop the U.S. government from funding this kind of evil, what
possible hope is there for the future of this nation?
According
to WND, some members of this industry even receive monetary
bonuses based
on the baby parts they harvest
StemExpress,
which is run by Planned Parenthood abortion doctor Ronald Berman, offers
its procurement technicians bonuses based on the baby parts they harvest,
according to the Center for Medical Progress. Larger bonuses are
offered for more valuable body parts, classified as Category A parts, while smaller
bonuses are given for Category C parts.
This
alone is enough to prove that America has gone all the way down the
toilet. But I will continue with the list
#2 Just a few days
ago, we learned that hackers had stolen personal information from 37 million
users on an
adultery website known as Ashley Madison
Hackers
calling themselves Impact Team have stolen and leaked data from some of the
Ashley Madison websites 37 million users and are threatening to publish
more.
For
now the group has released just 40MB of data, including some credit card
details and several documents about its parent company Avid Life Media (ALM),
it is reported.
The
big story here is not the hacking.
Rather,
the big story is the fact that 37 million of us have signed up
to participate on a website that facilitates adultery.
#3 Rates of violent
crime are increasing by double digit percentages in many
major U.S. cities in 2015, and some of the crimes being committed are almost
too horrible to talk about. Just consider the following example which
comes from the Daily Mail
A
22-year-old man and his 21-year-old girlfriend were walking along McNichols
Road near Birwood Street on Thursday around 11:30pm when a group of three to
six men approached them in the well-lit area, WWJ reported.
The
couple was allegedly forced behind a nearby business, where the six men robbed
and stripped them of their clothes.
Police
say the violent men took turns sexually assaulting the woman and when the
attack ended, the victims ran nude to a nearby liquor store for help.
Another
couple was attacked just a few hours later at 2:40am when a 21-year-old man and
his 19-year-old girlfriend were walking in the area of McNichols Road and
Pierson Street.
Four
men ordered them to the ground and then took took turns sexually assaulting the
woman, forcing her boyfriend to watch, WWJ reported.
Incredibly,
these gang rapes barely made a blip on the news here in the United
States. There are so many similar crimes taking place all around us that
there is nothing really unusual about these horrific rapes.
#4 Under the Obama
administration, our federal government has become absolutely obsessed with
political correctness and is spending money in some of the most bizarre ways
imaginable. For instance, the feds recently spent $125,000 to
study adjectives that could be perceived as sexist or racist.
#5 Speaking of
pouring money down the toilet, the Obamaphone program is a perfect
example. It turns out that all you have to do to get a free cellphone
from the federal government is to
show them someone elses food
stamp card
The
2014 CBS4 investigation showed repeated
instances of fraudulent activity and waste in the Lifeline program in Denver.
Its
an FCC administered program designed to provide free monthly cellphone service
to the needy so they can have cellphone service allowing them to seek
employment or call for emergency help if needed. Recipients are required to
show official documentation like Medicaid, housing assistance or food stamp
cards verifying their low income status in order to receive the free phone
service.
But
last year a vendor in Denver working under the FCC program had employees who
volunteered to use someone elses food stamp card to secure a free phone and service
for a CBS4 producer who was not eligible for the program.
Vendors
typically receive $3 for every phone they are able to give out. In other cases,
vendors said a CBS4 producer could simply show someone elses electronics benefit
card in order to secure a free phone and service.
#6 Meanwhile, the
government doesnt even want to talk to normal, hard working citizens
that just need a few questions answered. According to a report that was
just released, the IRS hung up on 8.8 million taxpayers that
called in looking for help during this most recent tax season.
#7 The federal government
has made it exceedingly difficult for law-abiding people to immigrate to this
nation legally, but meanwhile they have left our borders completely wide open
and have actively encouraged people to immigrate illegally. As a result,
large numbers of criminals, drug dealers, gang members and welfare parasites
have come pouring in. According to one recent report, 2.5 million illegal immigrants have
entered this country while Barack Obama has been in the White House
A
new report estimates that 2.5 million illegal immigrants have
entered the United States since Barack Obama took office in 2009.
The
Center for Immigration Studies released a study Monday citing data from the Center
for Migration Studies, Pew Research Center and the Census Bureau that indicates
400,000 illegal immigrants on average have entered the country annually since
2009.
From the
middle of 2013 to May 2015 alone, 790,000 illegals have come into the United
States. These undocumented individuals entered the country after President
Obama unveiled a controversial executive order in 2012 to stop deporting
young illegal immigrants who entered the country as children.
And
honestly, that 2.5 million number is probably on the low side. These
illegal immigrants are committing some of the most horrible crimes imaginable,
and if you doubt this, just read this article.
#8 Our society is
being transformed into what I like to call a Big Brother police
state control grid. Just a few days ago, we learned of another
example of this phenomenon. The following comes from the New York Post
A
key part of President Obamas legacy will be the feds unprecedented
collection of sensitive data on Americans by race. The government is
prying into our most personal information at the most local levels,
all for the purpose of racial and economic justice.
Unbeknown
to most Americans, Obamas racial bean counters are furiously mining
data on their health, home loans, credit cards, places of work, neighborhoods,
even how their kids are disciplined in school all to document inequalities between minorities and
whites.
What
is truly sad is that so few Americans are actually upset that virtually
everything we do is being watched, tracked and monitored. For much more
on all of this, please see this article.
#9 Just recently, I authored a piece which railed about the fact
that the average American citizen spends more than 10 hours a day
plugged in to some form of media. Many of us become extremely anxious if
something is not playing at least in the background. We spend endless
hours watching television, listening to the radio, going to the movies, playing
video games, messing with our smartphones and surfing the Internet.
Sadly, what most people dont realize is that more than 90 percent of the programming that is being
continually pumped into our brains through these various media outlets is
controlled by
just six absolutely enormous media corporations.
#10 At the same time
that the elite are endlessly pumping their twisted messages into all of our minds,
they are becoming increasingly obsessed with controlling what the rest of us
say. In one recent article, I explained how support for hate speech laws in America is rapidly
growing. Today, 51 percent of all Democrats support
these kinds of laws, and it is only a matter of time before liberal politicians
start pushing really hard for the same kind of hate speech laws that have
already been implemented in Europe and Canada.
#11 On top of
everything else, we have been stealing more than 100 million dollars an
hour from future generations of Americans since Barack Obama entered
the White House.
Let
that sink in for a moment.
If
someone were to write a movie script about the theft of 100 million dollars
from a major financial institution, nobody would ever actually want to make
that movie because such an amount would be too hard to believe.
But
this has actually been happening every single hour of every single day while
Obama has been in power.
In
a frenzy of insatiable greed, we have been taking trillions of dollars that
belong to our children and our grandchildren and spending it ourselves.
When you break it down, it comes to more than 100 million dollars every single
hour of every single day. This is a crime of unimaginable proportions, and
if we lived in a just society a whole bunch of our top politicians would be going to prison
for this.
I
could keep going, but I will stop for today.
So
what do you think?
Is
there any hope for America?
What
additions would you make to this list?
Please
feel free to join the discussion by posting a comment below