This Is
What A Financial Crisis Looks Like
Just
within the past few days, three major high yield funds have completely
imploded, and panic is spreading rapidly on Wall Street. Funds run by
Third Avenue Management and Stone Lion Capital Partners have suspended payments
to investors, and a fund run by Lucidus Capital Partners has liquidated its
entire portfolio. We are witnessing a race for the exits unlike anything
that we have seen since the great financial crash of 2008, and many of those
that choose to hesitate are going to end up getting totally wiped out. In
case you are wondering, this is what a financial crisis looks like. In
2008, other global stock markets started to tumble, then junk bonds began to crash, and finally U.S. stocks
followed. The exact same pattern is playing out again, and the carnage
that we have seen so far is just the tip of the iceberg. (Read More....)
December 14th To 18th: A Week
Of Reckoning For Global Stocks If The Fed Hikes Interest Rates?
Are
we about to witness widespread panic in the global financial marketplace?
This week is shaping up to be an absolutely critical week for global
stocks. Coming into December, more than half of the 93 largest stock
market indexes in the world were down more than 10
percent year to date, and last week stocks really started to slide all over
the world. Here in the United States, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is
down about 600 points over the past week or so, and at this point it is down
more than 1000 points from the peak of the market. That brings us to this
week, during which the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates for
the very first time since the last financial crisis. If that happens,
that could potentially be enough to accelerate this slide into a full-blown crash.
(Read More....)
The Global Commodity Crash
Tells Us That A Major Deflationary Financial Crisis Is Imminent
If we
really are plunging into a deflationary global financial crisis, we would
expect to see commodity prices crash hard. That happened just before the
great stock market crash of 2008, and that is precisely what is happening once
again right now. On Thursday, the Bloomberg Commodity Index closed at 79.1544. The last time that it closed this low
was 16 years ago. Not even during the worst moments of
the last recession did it ever get so low. Overall, the Bloomberg
Commodity Index is down more than 28 percent over the
past 12 months, and it has plummeted by more than half since mid-2011. As
a result of this stunning commodity collapse, extremely large mining companies
such as Anglo American are imploding, giant commodity trading firms such as
Glencore and Trafigura are in full-blown crisis mode, and huge portions of the
global financial system are in danger of utterly collapsing. (Read More....)
Guess What Happened The Last
Time Junk Bonds Started Crashing Like This? Hint: Think 2008
The extreme carnage that we are witnessing in the junk bond market right now is
one of the clearest signals yet that a major U.S. stock market crash is
imminent. For those that are not familiar with junk bonds, please dont get put off by the
name. They arent really junk. They simply have a higher risk and thus a
higher return than other bonds of the same type. And yesterday, I explained why I watch them so closely.
If stocks are going to crash, you would expect to see a junk bond crash
first. This happened in 2008, and it is happening again right now.
On Monday, a high yield bond ETF known as JNK crashed through the
psychologically important 35.00 barrier for the very first time since the last
financial crisis. On Tuesday, high yield bonds had their worst day in
three months, and JNK plummeted all the way down to 34.44. When I saw this I was
absolutely stunned. This is precisely the kind of junk bond crash that I
have been anticipating that we would soon witness. (Read More....)
Guess What Happened The Last
Time The Price Of Oil Plunged Below 38 Dollars A Barrel?
On
Monday, the price of U.S. oil dropped below 38 dollars a barrel for the first
time in six years. The last time the price of oil was this low, the
global financial system was melting down and the U.S. economy was experiencing
the worst recession that it had seen since the Great Depression of the
1930s. As I write this article, the price of U.S. oil is sitting at
$37.65. For months, I have been warning that the crash in the price of
oil would be extremely deflationary and would have severe consequences for the
global economy. Nations such as Japan, Canada, Brazil and Russia have
already plunged into recession, and more than half of all major global stock market
indexes are down at least 10 percent year to date. The first major global
financial crisis since 2009 has begun, and things are only going to get worse
as we head into 2016. (Read More....)
JP Morgan And Citigroup Agree
That The U.S. Economy Is Steamrolling Toward A Recession
As
we approach the end of 2015, researchers at both JP Morgan and Citigroup agree
that the probability that the U.S. economy will soon plunge into recession is
rising. Just last week, a member of the U.S. House of Representatives
asked Janet Yellen about Citigroups assessment that there is a 65 percent chance that
the United States will experience an economic recession in 2016. You can
read her answer below. And just a few days ago, JP Morgan economists
Michael Feroli, Daniel Silver, Jesse Edgerton, and Robert Mellman released a
report in which they declared that the probability of recession within three years has risen to an eye-catching 76%
(Read More....)
Add 2 More Attacks To The
List As The Year End Explosion Of Islamic Terror Continues
Doesnt it seem like there is
another Islamic terror attack somewhere in the world almost every day
now? Today, there was a throat slashing at a subway station in London,
and three female suicide bombers carried out a devastating attack in Chad that
killed at least 27 and injured at least 90. Inspired by the success of
ISIS, radical Islamists all over the planet are rising up and striking
vulnerable targets. According to Wikipedia, there have been dozens
of terror attacks worldwide so far this year, and the recent attacks in Paris
and San Bernardino were some of the biggest news stories of 2015.
Unfortunately, I believe that this is just the beginning. I am
fully convinced that the seeds of terror that have been planted up until now
will produce an increasingly bitter harvest as we head into 2016 and beyond. (Read More....)
Why
Is The United States Being Hit By So Many Fires, Floods And Earthquakes?
What
do you get when you add together one of the strongest El Ninos ever recorded,
the worst year for wildfires in U.S. history, and unprecedented earthquake
swarms in diverse places all over the country? Since the end of the summer,
America has been hit with a truly unusual series of natural disasters. The
state of Oklahoma has already set an all-time record for the number of
earthquakes that it has experienced in a year, more acres have been burned by
wildfires in the U.S. than we have ever seen before, and a 1,000 year rainfall caused horrific flooding
in South Carolina. Those are just a few examples of what we have been seeing,
and many believe that this is just the beginning. So why is this happening? Is
there something that connects all of these natural disasters together? (Read More...)
Are
we about to witness widespread panic in the global financial marketplace?
This week is shaping up to be an absolutely critical week for global
stocks. Coming into December, more than half of the 93 largest stock
market indexes in the world were down more than 10
percent year to date, and last week stocks really started to slide all over
the world. Here in the United States, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is
down about 600 points over the past week or so, and at this point it is down
more than 1000 points from the peak of the market. That brings us to this
week, during which the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates for
the very first time since the last financial crisis. If that happens,
that could potentially be enough to accelerate this slide into a full-blown crash.
(Read More....)
If we
really are plunging into a deflationary global financial crisis, we would
expect to see commodity prices crash hard. That happened just before the
great stock market crash of 2008, and that is precisely what is happening once
again right now. On Thursday, the Bloomberg Commodity Index closed at 79.1544. The last time that it closed this low
was 16 years ago. Not even during the worst moments of
the last recession did it ever get so low. Overall, the Bloomberg
Commodity Index is down more than 28 percent over the
past 12 months, and it has plummeted by more than half since mid-2011. As
a result of this stunning commodity collapse, extremely large mining companies
such as Anglo American are imploding, giant commodity trading firms such as
Glencore and Trafigura are in full-blown crisis mode, and huge portions of the
global financial system are in danger of utterly collapsing. (Read More....)
Guess What Happened The Last
Time Junk Bonds Started Crashing Like This? Hint: Think 2008
The extreme carnage that we are witnessing in the junk bond market right now is
one of the clearest signals yet that a major U.S. stock market crash is
imminent. For those that are not familiar with junk bonds, please dont get put off by the
name. They arent really junk. They simply have a higher risk and thus a
higher return than other bonds of the same type. And yesterday, I explained why I watch them so closely.
If stocks are going to crash, you would expect to see a junk bond crash
first. This happened in 2008, and it is happening again right now.
On Monday, a high yield bond ETF known as JNK crashed through the
psychologically important 35.00 barrier for the very first time since the last
financial crisis. On Tuesday, high yield bonds had their worst day in
three months, and JNK plummeted all the way down to 34.44. When I saw this I was
absolutely stunned. This is precisely the kind of junk bond crash that I
have been anticipating that we would soon witness. (Read More....)
Guess What Happened The Last
Time The Price Of Oil Plunged Below 38 Dollars A Barrel?On
Monday, the price of U.S. oil dropped below 38 dollars a barrel for the first
time in six years. The last time the price of oil was this low, the
global financial system was melting down and the U.S. economy was experiencing
the worst recession that it had seen since the Great Depression of the
1930s. As I write this article, the price of U.S. oil is sitting at
$37.65. For months, I have been warning that the crash in the price of
oil would be extremely deflationary and would have severe consequences for the
global economy. Nations such as Japan, Canada, Brazil and Russia have
already plunged into recession, and more than half of all major global stock market
indexes are down at least 10 percent year to date. The first major global
financial crisis since 2009 has begun, and things are only going to get worse
as we head into 2016. (Read More....)
JP Morgan And Citigroup Agree
That The U.S. Economy Is Steamrolling Toward A RecessionAs
we approach the end of 2015, researchers at both JP Morgan and Citigroup agree
that the probability that the U.S. economy will soon plunge into recession is
rising. Just last week, a member of the U.S. House of Representatives
asked Janet Yellen about Citigroups assessment that there is a 65 percent chance that
the United States will experience an economic recession in 2016. You can
read her answer below. And just a few days ago, JP Morgan economists
Michael Feroli, Daniel Silver, Jesse Edgerton, and Robert Mellman released a
report in which they declared that the probability of recession within three years has risen to an eye-catching 76%
(Read More....)
Add 2 More Attacks To The
List As The Year End Explosion Of Islamic Terror ContinuesDoesnt it seem like there is
another Islamic terror attack somewhere in the world almost every day
now? Today, there was a throat slashing at a subway station in London,
and three female suicide bombers carried out a devastating attack in Chad that
killed at least 27 and injured at least 90. Inspired by the success of
ISIS, radical Islamists all over the planet are rising up and striking
vulnerable targets. According to Wikipedia, there have been dozens
of terror attacks worldwide so far this year, and the recent attacks in Paris
and San Bernardino were some of the biggest news stories of 2015.
Unfortunately, I believe that this is just the beginning. I am
fully convinced that the seeds of terror that have been planted up until now
will produce an increasingly bitter harvest as we head into 2016 and beyond. (Read More....)
Why
Is The United States Being Hit By So Many Fires, Floods And Earthquakes?
What
do you get when you add together one of the strongest El Ninos ever recorded,
the worst year for wildfires in U.S. history, and unprecedented earthquake
swarms in diverse places all over the country? Since the end of the summer,
America has been hit with a truly unusual series of natural disasters. The
state of Oklahoma has already set an all-time record for the number of
earthquakes that it has experienced in a year, more acres have been burned by
wildfires in the U.S. than we have ever seen before, and a 1,000 year rainfall caused horrific flooding
in South Carolina. Those are just a few examples of what we have been seeing,
and many believe that this is just the beginning. So why is this happening? Is
there something that connects all of these natural disasters together? (Read More...)
The extreme carnage that we are witnessing in the junk bond market right now is
one of the clearest signals yet that a major U.S. stock market crash is
imminent. For those that are not familiar with junk bonds, please dont get put off by the
name. They arent really junk. They simply have a higher risk and thus a
higher return than other bonds of the same type. And yesterday, I explained why I watch them so closely.
If stocks are going to crash, you would expect to see a junk bond crash
first. This happened in 2008, and it is happening again right now.
On Monday, a high yield bond ETF known as JNK crashed through the
psychologically important 35.00 barrier for the very first time since the last
financial crisis. On Tuesday, high yield bonds had their worst day in
three months, and JNK plummeted all the way down to 34.44. When I saw this I was
absolutely stunned. This is precisely the kind of junk bond crash that I
have been anticipating that we would soon witness. (Read More....)
On
Monday, the price of U.S. oil dropped below 38 dollars a barrel for the first
time in six years. The last time the price of oil was this low, the
global financial system was melting down and the U.S. economy was experiencing
the worst recession that it had seen since the Great Depression of the
1930s. As I write this article, the price of U.S. oil is sitting at
$37.65. For months, I have been warning that the crash in the price of
oil would be extremely deflationary and would have severe consequences for the
global economy. Nations such as Japan, Canada, Brazil and Russia have
already plunged into recession, and more than half of all major global stock market
indexes are down at least 10 percent year to date. The first major global
financial crisis since 2009 has begun, and things are only going to get worse
as we head into 2016. (Read More....)
JP Morgan And Citigroup Agree
That The U.S. Economy Is Steamrolling Toward A RecessionAs
we approach the end of 2015, researchers at both JP Morgan and Citigroup agree
that the probability that the U.S. economy will soon plunge into recession is
rising. Just last week, a member of the U.S. House of Representatives
asked Janet Yellen about Citigroups assessment that there is a 65 percent chance that
the United States will experience an economic recession in 2016. You can
read her answer below. And just a few days ago, JP Morgan economists
Michael Feroli, Daniel Silver, Jesse Edgerton, and Robert Mellman released a
report in which they declared that the probability of recession within three years has risen to an eye-catching 76%
(Read More....)
Add 2 More Attacks To The
List As The Year End Explosion Of Islamic Terror ContinuesDoesnt it seem like there is
another Islamic terror attack somewhere in the world almost every day
now? Today, there was a throat slashing at a subway station in London,
and three female suicide bombers carried out a devastating attack in Chad that
killed at least 27 and injured at least 90. Inspired by the success of
ISIS, radical Islamists all over the planet are rising up and striking
vulnerable targets. According to Wikipedia, there have been dozens
of terror attacks worldwide so far this year, and the recent attacks in Paris
and San Bernardino were some of the biggest news stories of 2015.
Unfortunately, I believe that this is just the beginning. I am
fully convinced that the seeds of terror that have been planted up until now
will produce an increasingly bitter harvest as we head into 2016 and beyond. (Read More....)
Why
Is The United States Being Hit By So Many Fires, Floods And Earthquakes?
What
do you get when you add together one of the strongest El Ninos ever recorded,
the worst year for wildfires in U.S. history, and unprecedented earthquake
swarms in diverse places all over the country? Since the end of the summer,
America has been hit with a truly unusual series of natural disasters. The
state of Oklahoma has already set an all-time record for the number of
earthquakes that it has experienced in a year, more acres have been burned by
wildfires in the U.S. than we have ever seen before, and a 1,000 year rainfall caused horrific flooding
in South Carolina. Those are just a few examples of what we have been seeing,
and many believe that this is just the beginning. So why is this happening? Is
there something that connects all of these natural disasters together? (Read More...)
As
we approach the end of 2015, researchers at both JP Morgan and Citigroup agree
that the probability that the U.S. economy will soon plunge into recession is
rising. Just last week, a member of the U.S. House of Representatives
asked Janet Yellen about Citigroups assessment that there is a 65 percent chance that
the United States will experience an economic recession in 2016. You can
read her answer below. And just a few days ago, JP Morgan economists
Michael Feroli, Daniel Silver, Jesse Edgerton, and Robert Mellman released a
report in which they declared that the probability of recession within three years has risen to an eye-catching 76%
(Read More....)
Doesnt it seem like there is
another Islamic terror attack somewhere in the world almost every day
now? Today, there was a throat slashing at a subway station in London,
and three female suicide bombers carried out a devastating attack in Chad that
killed at least 27 and injured at least 90. Inspired by the success of
ISIS, radical Islamists all over the planet are rising up and striking
vulnerable targets. According to Wikipedia, there have been dozens
of terror attacks worldwide so far this year, and the recent attacks in Paris
and San Bernardino were some of the biggest news stories of 2015.
Unfortunately, I believe that this is just the beginning. I am
fully convinced that the seeds of terror that have been planted up until now
will produce an increasingly bitter harvest as we head into 2016 and beyond. (Read More....)
Why
Is The United States Being Hit By So Many Fires, Floods And Earthquakes?
What
do you get when you add together one of the strongest El Ninos ever recorded,
the worst year for wildfires in U.S. history, and unprecedented earthquake
swarms in diverse places all over the country? Since the end of the summer,
America has been hit with a truly unusual series of natural disasters. The
state of Oklahoma has already set an all-time record for the number of
earthquakes that it has experienced in a year, more acres have been burned by
wildfires in the U.S. than we have ever seen before, and a 1,000 year rainfall caused horrific flooding
in South Carolina. Those are just a few examples of what we have been seeing,
and many believe that this is just the beginning. So why is this happening? Is
there something that connects all of these natural disasters together? (Read More...)
