http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com We have all been lied to. For
decades, the leaders of both major political parties have promised us that they
can fix our current system and that they can get our national debt under
control. As the 2012 election approaches, they are making all kinds of
wild promises once again. Well you know what? It is all a giant
sham. The United States has gotten into so much debt that there will be
no coming back from this. The current system is irretrievably broken. 30
years ago the U.S. debt was a horrific crisis that was completely and totally
out of control. If we would have dealt with it back then maybe we could
have done something about it. But now it is 15 times
larger, and we are adding more than a trillion dollars to the debt every single
year. The facts that you are about to read below should set America on
fire with anger. Please share them with as many people as you can.
What we are doing to our children and our grandchildren is absolutely
nightmarish. Words like "abuse", "financial rape",
"theft" and "crime" do not even begin to describe what we
are doing to future generations. We were the wealthiest nation on earth,
but it wasn't good enough just to squander all of our own money. We had
to squander the money of our children and our grandchildren as well.
America has been so selfish and so self-centered that it is hard to argue that
we don't deserve what is about to happen to this country. We have stolen
the future of America, and yet we strut around as if we are the smartest generation
that ever walked the face of the earth.
All of this
prosperity that we see all around us is just an illusion. It is a false
prosperity that has been purchased by the biggest mountain of debt in the
history of the world.
Did you know
that if you added up all forms of debt in the United States and divided it up
equally that every single family in the country would owe more than $683,000?
We are a
nation that is absolutely addicted to debt, and the U.S. debt crisis threatens
to destroy everything that our forefathers built.
Yes,
everything may seem fine for the moment, but what do you think would happen if
the federal government suddenly adopted a balanced budget?
1.3 trillion
dollars a year would be sucked right out of the economy and we would be looking
at an "economic readjustment" that would be mind blowing.
Enjoy this
false prosperity while you can, because it is not going to last.
Debt is a very
cruel master, and our day of reckoning is almost here.
The following
are 34 shocking facts about U.S. debt that should set America on fire with
anger....
#1 During fiscal year 2011, the U.S. government spent 3.7 trillion dollars but it only brought in 2.4 trillion dollars.
#2 When Ronald Reagan took office, the U.S. national
debt was less than 1 trillion dollars. Today,
the U.S. national debt is over 15.2 trillion dollars.
#3 During 2011, U.S. debt surpassed 100 percent of GDP for the first
time ever.
#4 According to Wikipedia, the monetary base "consists of
coins, paper money (both as bank vault cash and as currency circulating in the
public), and commercial banks' reserves with the central bank."
Currently the U.S. monetary base is sitting somewhere around 2.7 trillion dollars. So if you went out
and gathered all of that money up it would only make a small dent in our
national debt. But afterwards there would be no currency for anyone to
use.
#5 The U.S. government spent over 454 billion dollars
just on interest on the national debt during fiscal 2011.
#6 The U.S. government has total assets of 2.7 trillion dollars and has total liabilities
of 17.5 trillion dollars. The liabilities
do not even count 4.7 trillion dollars of
intragovernmental debt that is currently outstanding.
#7 During the Obama administration, the U.S. government
has accumulated more debt than it did from the time that George Washington took
office to the time
that Bill Clinton took office.
#8 It is being projected that the U.S. national debt
will surpass 23 trillion dollars in 2015.
#9 According to the GAO, the U.S. government is facing 34 trillion dollars in unfunded liabilities for
social insurance programs such as Social Security and Medicare. These are
obligations that we have already committed ourselves to but that we do not have
any money for.
#10 Others estimate that the unfunded liabilities of the
U.S. government now total over 117 trillion dollars.
#11 According to the GAO, the ratio of debt held by the
public to GDP is projected to reach 287 percent of GDP by 2086.
#12 Others are much less optimistic. A recently
revised IMF policy paper entitled An
Analysis of U.S. Fiscal and Generational Imbalances: Who Will Pay and How? projects that U.S.
government debt will rise to about 400 percent of GDP by the year 2050.
#13 The United States government is responsible for more than a third of all
the government debt in the entire world.
#14 If you divide up the national debt equally among all
U.S. taxpayers, each taxpayer would owe approximately $134,685.
#15 Mandatory federal spending surpassed total federal
revenue for the first time ever in fiscal 2011. That was not supposed to
happen until 50 years from now.
#16 Between 2007 and 2010, U.S. GDP grew by only 4.26%,
but the U.S. national debt soared by 61% during that same time period.
#17 During Barack Obama's first two years in office, the
U.S. government added more to the U.S. national debt than the
first 100 U.S. Congresses combined.
#18 When you add up all spending by the federal
government, state governments and local governments, it comes to 46.6% of
GDP.
#19 Our nation is more addicted to government checks
than ever before. In 1980, government transfer payments accounted for
just 11.7% of all income. Today, government
transfer payments account for 18.4% of all income.
#20 U.S. households are now actually receiving more
money directly from the U.S. government than
they are paying to the government in taxes.
#21 A staggering 48.5% of all Americans live in a household
that receives some form of government benefits. Back in 1983, that number
was below 30 percent.
#22 Back in 1965, only one out of every 50 Americans was
on Medicaid. Today, one out of every 6 Americans is
on Medicaid.
#23 In 1950, each retiree's Social Security benefit
was paid for by 16 U.S. workers. According to new data from the U.S. Bureau
of Labor Statistics, there are now only 1.75 full-time
private sector workers for each person that is receiving Social Security
benefits in the United States.
#24 The U.S. government now says that the Medicare trust
fund will run out five years faster than they were
projecting just last year.
#25 Right now, spending by the federal government
accounts for about 24 percent of GDP. Back in 2001,
it accounted for just 18 percent.
#26 If the U.S. government was forced to use GAAP
accounting principles (like all publicly-traded corporations must), the U.S.
government budget deficit would be somewhere in the neighborhood of $4 trillion to $5 trillion each and
every year.
#27 If you were alive when Christ was born and you spent
one million dollars every single day since that point, you still would not have
spent one trillion dollars by now. But this year alone the U.S.
government is going to add more than a trillion dollars to the national debt.
#28 If right this moment you went out and started
spending one dollar every single second, it would take you more
than 31,000 years to spend one trillion dollars.
#29 A trillion $10 bills, if they were taped end to end,
would wrap around the globe more than 380 times. That
amount of money would still not be enough to pay off the U.S. national
debt.
#30 If the federal government began right at this moment
to repay the U.S. national debt at a rate of one dollar per second, it would
take over 470,000 years to pay off the national debt.
#31 If Bill Gates gave every penny of his fortune to the
U.S. government, it would only cover the U.S. budget deficit for 15 days.
#32 According to Professor Laurence J. Kotlikoff, the
U.S. is facing a "fiscal gap" of over 200 trillion dollars in the
future. The following is a brief excerpt from a recent article that he
did for CNN....
The government's total indebtedness -- its fiscal gap
-- now stands at $211 trillion, by my arithmetic. The fiscal gap is the
difference, measured in present value, between all projected future spending
obligations -- including our huge defense expenditures and massive entitlement
programs, as well as making interest and principal payments on the official
debt -- and all projected future taxes.
#33
If you add up all forms of debt in the United States (government, business and
consumer), it comes to more than 56 trillion dollars. That
is more than $683,000 per family. Unfortunately, the average
amount of savings per family in the U.S. is only about $4,735.
#34
The U.S. national debt is now more than 5000 times larger than it was when the Federal
Reserve was created back in 1913.
But do our leaders care about statistics such as
these?
No.
In fact, Barack Obama says that we need to raise the
debt limit by another 1.2 trillion dollars.
The absurdity of raising the debt limit when we are
already in so much debt is beautifully illustrated by the video posted below....
I just thought that video was so well done.
The "huge cuts" that Congress has agreed to
are absolutely meaningless when compared to how rapidly our debt is exploding.
Calling those cuts "pocket change" would be
an insult to pocket change.
But it is not just U.S. debt that is the
problem. The European debt crisis threatens to completely
unravel in 2012 and Japan actually has the highest debt to GDP ratio in the
entire industrialized world.
In 2012, a total of 7,600,000,000,000 dollars
of debt must be rolled over by the G-7 nations, Brazil, Russia, India and
China.
That doesn't even count new borrowing. That
number just represents old debts that are coming due that must be refinanced.
Anyone out there that insists that this debt bubble
can be fixed under our current system is lying.
A massive amount of financial pain is coming.
It is time for Americans to wake up from their
television-induced comas.
It is time for Americans to get very angry.
Your future has been destroyed and the future of your
children and grandchildren has been destroyed.
You better take action while you still can.
Markets
Go Out Like a Lamb, Come In Like a Lion -- and Are Set to Repeat?
Minyanville Lloyd Khaner Jan 04, 2012
Lloyd's Wall of Worry
QE: Inflation headline numbers still low so chances of US QE
still high.
US ECONOMY: Aint no
stoppin us now, we got the groove
. A barely GDP positive, high
unemployment, weak housing market, rising inflation groove
.
UNEMPLOYMENT: Just like the rent, Jimmy McMillan would say:
Its too damn high!
INVESTOR SENTIMENT: Has left the building.
HOUSING CRISIS: 2012 is its five-year wood
anniversary. To be celebrated with a piece of driftwood in an effort to help
underwater mortgage holders stay afloat.
CENTRAL BANKS: The Wall of Money has started. Hard to
see as it is a glass wall, but a wall all the same
will it hold?
CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE: Confidence is emerging! Confidence that
this year will not be more confusing than last year. Sigh.
EUROPEAN ECONOMY: Going subterranean.
THE EUROPEAN UNION: Oh lets,
lets stay together, lovin you whether, whether, times are good or bad,
happy or sad
.
SOVEREIGN DEBT: Can I interest you in a light, bubbly,
effervescent vintage 2012 $8 trillion debt auction?
BOND VIGILANTES: Barring a Mayweather/Pacquiao galactic
superfight, this is the one bout to watch this year.
GREECE: Next few months are critical as it needs another
bailout. To be followed by a few more critical months anticipating the next
bailout.
IMF: Dear IMF, I hereby grant you the 2012 Nobel Prize for
Economics. Now, I expect you to earn it because nobody else will.
ECONOMIC LEADERSHIP: Were not gonna find it. Can we just stop
looking now, Mom!?
POLICY CLIFFS: US government in its entirety taking Murphys
Law to a level not seen since Chicxulub crater 65 million years ago.
BANKS: You borrowed it, now lend it or give it back.
Investors, dont hold your breath on those last two.
VOLATILITY: Just gonna put on my astronaut diaper and ride
this bronco till it busts.
HIGH FREQUENCY TRADING:
Lloyd: Good New Years?
HAL: Quiet. Stayed home. Debugged. Watched WarGames.
Lloyd: Good movie. Pop classic.
HAL: True. But I prefer happier endings.
CHINA: How will the Red Giant deal with the fact that its
equity market was down over 20% in 2011? Please feel free to comment on
this Holy Grail question.
STOCK MARKET TECHNICALS: When all else fails the fallback move
is to follow the technicals
even when they are failing as well.
EARNINGS SEASON: I await it with bated breath and helmeted
head.
CORRELATION: Same as it
ever was, same as it ever was, same as it ever was
.
CREDIT WATCH: Alright ratings agencies, we are bent over and
waiting.
Assume the position
thank you, sir, may I have another!
IRAN: Gonna be a war of words type-of-year from Iran -- and
hopefully nothing more.
NORTH KOREA: Rumor is they are secretly engaged to South
Korea. A wedding would be nice, but not a shotgun wedding.
Doug Casey of Casey
Research
Doug
Casey Addresses Getting Out of Dodge
L: Doug, a lot of readers have been asking for
guidance on how to know when it's time to exit center stage and hunker down in
some safe place. Few people want to hide from the world in a cabin in the woods
while life goes on in the mainstream, but nobody wants to get caught once the
gates clang shut on the police state the US is becoming. How do you know when
it's time to go?
Doug: Well, the first thing to keep in mind is that it's
better to be a year too early than a minute too late. David Galland recently
read They
Thought They Were Free: The Germans, 1933-45, by Milton Mayer.
He quoted a passage in his column of last Friday. It goes a long way in
explaining why Americans appear to be such whipped dogs today. They're no
different from the Germans of recent memory. For those who missed it, let me
quote it:
"You see," my colleague went on, "one doesn't see exactly
where or how to move. Believe me, this is true. Each act, each occasion, is
worse than the last, but only a little worse. You wait for the next and the
next. You wait for one great shocking occasion, thinking that others, when such
a shock comes, will join with you in resisting somehow. You don't want to act,
or even talk, alone; you don't want to 'go out of your way to make trouble.'
In the university
community, in your own community, you speak privately to your colleagues, some
of whom certainly feel as you do; but what do they say? They say, 'It's not so
bad' or 'You're seeing things' or 'You're an alarmist.'
"These are the beginnings, yes; but how do you know for sure when
you don't know the end, and how do you know, or even surmise, the end? On the
one hand, your enemies, the law, the regime, the Party, intimidate you. On the
other, your colleagues pooh-pooh you as pessimistic or even neurotic
the one great shocking
occasion, when tens or hundreds or thousands will join with you, never comes.
That's the difficulty. If the last and worst act of the whole regime had come
immediately after the first and smallest, thousands, yes, millions would have
been sufficiently shocked
But of course this isn't the way it happens. In
between come all the hundreds of little steps, some of them imperceptible, each
of them preparing you not to be shocked by the next. Step C is not so much
worse than Step B, and, if you did not make a stand at Step B, why should you
at Step C?"
The fact is
that the US has been on a slippery slope for decades, and it's about to go over
a cliff. However, our standard of living, while declining, is still very high,
both relatively and absolutely. But an American can enjoy a much higher
standard of living abroad.
On the other
hand, if I were some poor guy in a poverty-wracked country with few
opportunities, I'd want to go where the action is, where the money is, now.
Today, that means trying to get into the United States. The US is headed the
wrong direction, but it's still a land of opportunity and a whole lot better
than some flea-bitten village in Niger.
L: By the time things get worse than some Third-World
dictatorship in the US, such a person could have remitted a whole lot of cash
back home.
Doug: And you'd have a whole lot of experiences that
would give you a competitive edge back where you came from, or in the next
place you go to. The one-eyed man is king in the valley of the blind. People
have to lose that backward, peasant mentality that ties them to the land of
their birth. Sad to say, although the average American has somewhat more
knowledge of the world mainly due to television his psychology is just
as constrained as that of some serf from central Asia or some primitive village
in Africa. It's all a matter of psychology.
But if you're
not poor, you want to go someplace that is safe, nice whatever that means to
you
and with a lower cost of living. As most readers know, for me that's Cafayate,
Argentina, but one size does not fit all. It needs to be a place you
actually enjoy spending some time, with people whose company you enjoy.
L: Fair enough. But our readers want to know if your
guru-sense is tingling yet, or how close you think we are to it being too late
to leave
or at least too late to leave with any meaningful assets.
Doug: I'm a trend observer. This is one of the advantages
of studying history, because it shows you that things like this rarely happen
overnight. They are usually the result of trends that build over years and
years, sometimes over generations. In the case of the US, I think the trend has
been downhill, in many ways, for many years. Pick a time. You could make an
argument, from a moral point of view, that things started heading downhill at
the time of the Spanish-American War. That was when a previously peaceful
and open country first started conquering overseas lands and staking colonies.
America was still in the ascent towards its peak economically, but the seeds of
its own demise were already sewn, and a libertarian watching the scene might
have concluded that it was time to get out of Dodge
L: [Laughs] That would have been a bit early
Doug: [Chuckles] Yes, that would have been way too soon.
As Adam Smith observed, there's a lot of ruin in a country.
L: On the other paw, it would have gotten you out
before the War between the States, a disaster well worth avoiding.
Doug: No, the Spanish-American War was in 1898.
L: Oops! Sorry, I was thinking of what Americans call
the Mexican-American War, but which Mexicans call the
"American Invasion"
Doug: [Laughs]
L: I'm not joking. That's what they called it in the
history books I was given in Mexican schools when I lived there in the '70s. It
has long seemed to me that that was an ominous turn for the worse for the US
and a clear example of conquering a weaker neighbor purely for pillage not just Texas, but
everything from there all the way to California.
Doug: That's right. Davey Crockett and the boys, we love
them, but in many ways they were the equivalent of today's Mexicans who want to
recolonize the southwest and turn it back into part of Mexico, in what they
call the Reconquista.
L: Indeed, but this is ancient history to most US
taxpayers today I'm reminded that it's not correct in many cases to
call them Americans.
Doug: Yes, just as it was a misnomer to call the people
who lived in the Roman Empire after Diocletian Romans because Roman citizens
were once free men. After about 300 AD most of them were bound to the land or
their occupations as serfs. But the slide for Rome started at least 120 years
earlier, after the death of Marcus Aurelius. Politically, the decline started
with the accession of Julius Caesar 240 years before that. So, when did the
slide
politically, economically, and socially really start for the US? When were there no more
trends going up?
L: FDR? The New Deal was really a moral, economic, and political
turning point.
Doug: You could make that argument, but the US still grew
economically, despite the roadblocks FDR threw in its path. US military power
and global prestige continued growing from that point, although, paradoxically,
the accelerating growth of the US military was directly responsible for the
decline of the US economically and in terms of personal freedom. One reason for
the ascendancy of the US after World War II was that we were the only major
country in the world not physically devastated by the war.
L: Ah. Right.
Doug: So it seems to me that the peak of American
civilization was in the 1960s. As for evidence, well, I like to put my finger
on the 1959 Cadillac. Those twin bullet taillights, the opulence
of it
In terms of then-current technology, things couldn't get much better.
L: "Opulence. I has it."
Doug: [Laughs a real belly laugh] That's my favorite TV commercial!
Anyway, that was the peak, in my mind. Though things continued getting better
for a while, the US started to live out of capital.
L: Had to pay for guns and butter.
Doug: That's right. The Johnson administration's
so-called Great Society created vast new federal bureaucracies that promised
Americans free food, shelter, medical care, education, and what-have-you.
Americans became true wards of the state. But the real, final nail in the
coffin for America was in 1971
L: Nixon taking the US off the gold standard.
Doug: Nixon taking the US off the gold standard open
devaluation of the dollar, combined with wage and price controls for some
months. And that was not long after the so-called Bank Secrecy Act, which
abolished bank secrecy, and required the reporting of all foreign financial
accounts. Nixon was, in many ways, even more of a disaster than Johnson.
Republicans are usually worse than Democrats when it comes to freedom, partly
because they like to couch their depredations in the rhetoric of defending the
free market. While everyone understands that Democrats are socialists just under
the surface, Republicans actually give capitalism a bad name. Baby Bush is a
perfect, recent example.
L: But don't you worry your pretty little head about
devaluation
it's just a "bugaboo" and as long as you're not one of those unpatriotic
people wanting to buy imports or vacation abroad, your dollar will be worth
just as much tomorrow as it is today. The scary thing is that the Belarusian
dictator Lukashenko said almost the same thing when the Belarusian ruble lost two thirds of its forex value earlier
this year, asking his countrymen why they need to go on vacation in Germany or
buy German cars
Doug: You see why I like to study history? It doesn't
repeat, but it sure does rhyme
L: With a vengeance.
Doug: So, anyway, since 1971, some things have improved
largely due to technological advances, but the America That Was has been fading
into the past. It was a decisive turning point. You can see that in the
accelerated proliferation of undeclared wars we've had since then. I don't just
mean the penny-ante invasions of Granada and Panama the US has always lorded
it over Caribbean and Central American banana republics; those are just sport
wars. But Iraq and Afghanistan are alien cultures on the other side of the
world
apart from never posing any threat to the US. Now it looks like Iran and
Pakistan are on the dance card, and they're big game. The War Against Islam has
started in earnest, and it's going to end badly for the US. I explained all
this at great length in the white paper, Learn to Make Terror Your Friend,
that I wrote for The
Casey Report last month.
Domestically,
saying that the US is turning into a police state when you started this
conversation was quite accurate. You can see more and more videos spreading
over the Internet, not just of police brutality, but demonstrating the
militarization and federalization of police, who are being inculcated with both
disdain for and paranoia about ordinary citizens.
In the old
days, if you were stopped for speeding, the peace officer was polite you could get out of
your car, meet the cop on neutral ground, and chat with him. You didn't have a
serious problem unless you were obviously drunk or combative. Now, you don't
dare make a move. You better keep your hands in plain sight on the steering
wheel and be ready for a Breathalyzer test without probable cause. The law
enforcement officer will stand behind you with his hand on his gun. And you're
the one who'd better be polite.
L: There has been a polar reversal. The cops used to
address citizens as "sir" or "ma'am." Now, the correct
response in a traffic stop is: "Yes, sir! I would love to inspect the
bottom of your boot, sir!"
Doug: [Laughs] That's right. My friend Marc Victor gives
out magnetized business cards. People ask, "Why?" He answers that
it's so clients can put them on the bottom of their cars or refrigerators, so
they can see it when the cops throw them to the ground.
L: Marc's a good man. There's a handy video on Marc's website,
offering advice on what to do if you're pulled over by the police in a traffic stop.
Doug: A good public service announcement. At any rate, I
think there's no question that the US has turned the corner on every basis:
politically, socially, morally, and now, economically
L: Okay, but, Doug, you said that in 1979 too. The
question is, how do we know when the door is going to close?
Doug: [Laughs.] Well, sometimes I feel a little like the
boy who cried wolf. But Roman writers like Tacitus and Sallust saw where Rome
was going before it got completely out of control. Should they have said
nothing, for fear of being too early? Here in the US, it should have gone over
the edge back in the 1980s, but we got lucky. There was still a lot of forward
momentum, which can last for decades when you're speaking of civilizations.
There was the computer productivity boom. The Soviet Union collapsed, China
liberalized, and Communism was discredited everywhere except on US college
campuses. The end of the Cold War opened up vast areas of the world to the
global market. And most surprising of all, Volker tightened up the money supply
and interest rates went high, causing people to save money and stop borrowing
to consume.
L: That's not happening this time.
Doug: No. We got lucky back then. Since the '90s we've
had a long and totally phony, debt-driven boom that's now come to an end. I
feel very confident that there's no way out this time. There are huge
distortions and misallocations of capital that have been cranked into the
system for two decades. And not just in the US this time, but in Europe, China,
Japan, and elsewhere.
The US is very
clearly on the decline. The fact that in spite of bankrupting military
expenditures to no gain for the American people, those in power are talking
overtly and aggressively about attacking more countries Iran and Pakistan in
particular
is extremely grave. The fact that they attacked Libya which, incidentally, is
going to turn into a total disaster, a civil war that will last for years shows it's not stopping.
Sure, Obama brought troops home from Iraq another disaster that's going to remain a disaster
for years to come but at the same time he put a company of combat
troops in Uganda, of all places and Marines in Australia, to provoke the
Chinese.
Back home,
I've read reports that people are being stopped for carrying gold coins out of
the US, in Houston in particular. Now we have authorization
of the military to detain US citizens, on US soil, with no trail, and
indefinitely, on the verge of becoming law. And Predator
Drones have been used to hunt down farmers on their own ranches.
I could go on
and on. This is not like spotting early signs of decay in America's
expansionist wars of the 19th century or things getting worse with
FDR. Most people can't see it with all the noise and confusion, but we've
reached the edge of the precipice.
L: Don't worry about exactly where the edge is, just
assume it's there and take appropriate action?
Doug: Yes. It really is there. It's a clear and present
danger. But most Americans are as oblivious as most Germans were in the '30s.
In fact, most of them support what's going on, just as most Germans supported
their government in the '30s and '40s.
L: So
don't worry about figuring out exactly when the
gates will shut. Assume they are shutting now?
Doug: That's right. One should be actively and vigorously
looking to expatriate assets, cash, and even one's self. A prudent person will
always be diversified politically and internationally.
L: What about people who have jobs they can't continue
doing from abroad and who need the income?
Doug: They should still prepare, as best they can, to be
ready to go on a vacation when things get hot a vacation from which
they might not return for a long time. All that needs happen, with the hysteria
that's building in the US, is for a major terrorist incident real or imagined to occur. Homeland
Security will lock the country down. I hate to admit it, but I'm almost
starting to credit the stories about those FEMA camps.
Look, I know
it sounds extreme, and the comparison to pre-WWII Germany has been made many
times, but it bears repeating. Germany was the most literate, civilized, and
even mellow, in some ways, country in Europe. It was much admired all around
the world
a nation of shopkeepers, small farmers, and scholars. But the whole character
of the place started changing in 1933, and it just got worse and worse. By the
end of 1939, if you weren't out, you were done.
L: [Pauses] Well, not a cheerful thought. Actions to
take?
Doug: Things we've said before: Set up foreign bank
accounts in places you like to travel, while you can. Set up vault arrangements
for physical precious metals outside the US. Buy foreign real estate that you'd
like to own, because it can't be forcibly repatriated. Offshore asset
protection trusts are a good idea too. Become an International
Man. Let me emphasize that US taxpayers should stay within all US laws,
because the consequences of breaking them are unbelievably draconian.
Generally, one
simply must internationalize one's assets. The biggest danger investors face,
by far, is not market risk huge as that will be but political risk. The
only way to insulate yourself from such risk is to diversify yourself
politically and geographically.
L: Right then
words to the wise. Thanks for your insight.
Doug: You're welcome. Most won't, but I just hope readers
listen.
US
Economic Forecast for 2012 and the Election Year Cycle James Hall | Government
policies and fiscal manipulation, by design, results in dire prospects for
2012.
When it comes
to business cycles, the former rules no longer seem to apply. The seminal
events that changed the economic landscape after the 2008 financial crash still
points to an uncertain future and marginal recovery. If you watch CNBC or
Bloomberg business news, you hear that a modest recovery is in place. Accepting
this kind of reporting may temporarily make you feel better, but in the real
economy, the prospects for a rebound are mere fiction. Prosperity only exists
for the chums of the insider financial system, who are immune from actual
market conditions. Under the privileged and favoritism model, political subsidies
and bailouts are more important than creative industry or innovative execution.
The businesses
that produce and service the everyday functions of society flounder in a sea of
uncertainty and a desert of capital illiquidity. Within this context, the only
realistic way to examine the prospects for 2012, must factor in the political
component. Yet the promoters of the corporatist system build up false hope,
while fudging the numbers.
Analyze the
valid question; Can
We Trust The Moderate Growth Forecasts?
"Another day, another economic forecast. The 35
economists polled for the latest
Livingston Survey via the Philadelphia Fed project that real GDP for the
U.S. will grow at an annualized 2.5% rate for the second half of 2011. Thats down from Junes 3.2% second-half 2011
forecast. Down, but still not out.
Looking ahead
to 2012, the Livingston survey forecasters "see the growth rate of
economic output slowing to 2.1 percent (annual rate) in the first half of 2012,
and they predict that it will then increase to 2.5 percent (annual rate) in the
second half of the year." The economists also expect "a slow recovery
in the labor market, with the unemployment rate at 9.0 percent in December 2011
and at 8.9 percent in June 2012."
Lakshman
Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute,
talks with Bloomberg about the next year in the U.S.
Economic Outlook, Labor Market video.
Mr.
Achuthan continues in a second video interview on the Daily Ticker Says
New Recession Unavoidable.
"Its too soon to predict just how bad its going to get, but he
expects another spike in unemployment and further expansion of the federal
governments
$1 trillion deficit. This forecast has huge ramifications for the 2012 election
and the already struggling U.S. consumer and Achuthan says a "mild"
recession is the best-case scenario."
This type of analysis is typical of traditional
media. But, for a more daring and intense approach that factors political
pandemonium into the economic projections, Gerald Celente fills the bill. Mac
Slavo writes about Celente
Warns Of 2012: Economy Will Crash, Banks Will Close, Chaos Will Ensue,
Military Will Take Over.
"If youve followed trend forecaster Gerald Celente for any
period of time youve probably realized he knows what hes talking about. For the
better part of two decades Celente and his Trends Journal have been
forecasting political, financial, economic and social trends with an uncanny
ability for accuracy."
Celente provides his list of projection. Read them in
the Top 12 Trends 2012.
1. Economic Martial Law:
2. Battlefield America:
3. Invasion of the Occtupy:
4. Climax Time:
5. Technocrat Takeover:
6. Repatriate! Repatriate!:
7. Secession Obsession:
8. Safe Havens:
9. Big Brother Internet:
10. Direct vs. Faux Democracy:
11. Alternative Energy 2012:
12. Going Out in Style:
Another perceptive publication projects The
Economic Collapse in A Very Scary Christmas And An Incredibly
Frightening New Year, sums it up this way.
"The head of the International Monetary Fund,
Christian Lagarde, recently stated that we could soon see conditions
"reminiscent of the 1930s depression" and that no country on earth
"will be immune to the crisis"
.
"There is no economy in the world, whether
low-income countries, emerging markets, middle-income countries or
super-advanced economies that will be immune to the crisis that we see not only
unfolding but escalating"
The first six months of 2012 are going to be a very
key time. National governments and big European banks are scheduled to roll
over huge mountains of debt. But if they cant find any takers that
could bring the global financial system to a moment of great crisis very
quickly."
Reject the Marc Faber Gloom Boom
& Doom Report viewpoint of analysis if you wish, but dismiss these
forecasts at your peril. However, what you cannot ignore are the disastrous
political consequences of failed public inept intrusions into the private
sector that never turns the economy around. Even in an election year, the
normal pump priming expenditures, just hit a dry hole. The enormous debt build
up in the last three years has done nothing to revive Main Street business.
The partisan formula of an incumbent to buy off
voters with an easy money injection into the economy, will not work this time.
Yes, the dependency voters may cast their ballot for a second Obama term, but
the engine of economic growth, namely; small business is slated for a fire sale
under the corporatist prototype of the globalist economy.
Implementing constructive government policies that
would unleash merchant small business will not happen in 2012 for a very simple
reason. The goal of Wall Street and their handpicked political operatives want
private independent enterprises to die on the vine. Social discontent grows
daily because the public no longer believes that the political class can
provide any viable economic future for the average family. Unfortunately, this
attitude misses the mark. Government never produces prosperity. Nevertheless,
most people who do voter want to trust in their elected officials. Maybe this
fact explains why so many Americans refuse to vote anymore.
The break, with the nostalgia, that the next
generation will have it better than the previous one is now shared by even the
most optimistic romantic. This election cycle forecasts that economic salvation
is illusory. Stock markets may rise, but inflation in stable goods is here to
stay. Your money buys less so that the banks can speculate. Government policies
and fiscal manipulation, by design, results in dire prospects for 2012.
Remember this fact when you vote next November.
Celente - Top 12 Trends 2012
By Gerald Celente
12-21-11
KINGSTON, NY, 20 December 2011 Hold onto your hat,
your wallet, and your wits.
After a tumultuous 2011 in which many of the trends
we had forecast became headline news around the world, we are now forewarning
of an even more tumultuous year to come.
While it would give us great pleasure to forecast a
2012 of joy and prosperity all brought about by the wisdom and benevolence of
our fearless leaders since we are not running for office or looking to profit
by gulling the people, we tell it as we see it in our 12 Top Trends 2012.
One megatrend looms on the near horizon. And we
forecast that when it strikes, it will be a shock felt around the world.
Hyperbole it's not! Our research has revealed that at the very highest levels
of government this megatrend has been seriously discussed. Read on:
#1. Economic Martial Law: Given the current economic
and geopolitical conditions, the central banks and world governments already
have plans in place to declare economic martial law with the possibility of
military martial law to follow.
#2. Battlefield America: With a stroke of the
Presidential pen, language was removed from an earlier version of the National
Defense Authorization Act, granting the President authority to act as judge,
jury and executioner. Citizens, welcome to "Battlefield America."
#3. Invasion of the Occtupy: 15 years ago, Gerald
Celente predicted in his book Trends 2000 that prolonged protests would hit
Wall Street in the early years of the new millennium and would spread nationwide.
The "Occtupy" is now upon us, and it is like nothing history has ever
witnessed.
#4. Climax Time: The financial house of cards is
collapsing, and in 2012 many of the long-simmering socioeconomic and
geopolitical trends that Celente has accurately forecast will come to a climax.
Some will arrive with a big bang and others less dramatically but no less
consequentially. Are you prepared? And what's next for the world?
#5. Technocrat Takeover: "Democracy is Dead;
Long Live the Technocrat!" A pair of lightning-quick financial coup
d'ιtats in Greece and Italy have installed two unelected figures as head of
state. No one yet in the mainstream media is calling this merger of state and
corporate powers by its proper name: Fascism, nor are they calling these "technocrats"
by their proper name: Bankers! Can a rudderless ship be saved because
technocrat is at the helm?
#6. Repatriate! Repatriate!: It took a small, but
financially and politically powerful group to sell the world on globalization,
and it will take a large, committed and coordinated citizens' movement to
"un-sell" it. "Repatriate! Repatriate!" will pit the
creative instincts of a multitude of individuals against the repressive
monopoly of the multinationals.
#7. Secession Obsession: Winds of political change
are blowing from Tunisia to Russia and everywhere in between, opening a window
of opportunity through which previously unimaginable political options may now
be considered: radical decentralization, Internet-based direct democracy,
secession, and even the peaceful dissolution of nations, offering the
possibility for a new world "disorder."
#8. Safe Havens: As the signs of imminent economic
and social collapse become more pronounced, legions of New Millennium
survivalists are, or will be, thinking about looking for methods and ways to
escape the resulting turmoil. Those "on-trend" have already taken
measure to implement Gerald Celente's 3 G's: Gold, Guns and a Getaway plan.
Where to go? What to do? Top Trends 2012 will guide the way.
#9. Big Brother Internet: The coming year will be the
beginning of the end of Internet Freedom: A battle between the governments and
the people. Governments will propose legislation for a new "authentication
technology," requiring Internet users to present the equivalent of a
driver's license and/or bill of health to navigate cyberspace. For the
general population it will represent yet another curtailing of freedom and
level of governmental control.
#10. Direct vs. Faux Democracy: In every corner of
the world, a restive populace has made it clear that it's disgusted with
"politics as usual" and is looking for change. Government, in all its
forms democracy, autocracy, monarchy, socialism, communism just isn''t
working. The only viable solution is to take the vote out of the hands of party
politicians and institute Direct Democracy. If the Swiss can do it, why can't
anyone else?
#11. Alternative Energy 2012: Even under the cloud of
Fukushima, the harnessing of nuclear power is being reinvigorated by a fuel that
is significantly safer than uranium and by the introduction of small, modular,
portable reactors that reduce costs and construction time. In addition, there
are dozens of projects underway that explore the possibility of creating
cleaner, competitively priced liquid fuels distilled from natural sources. Plan
to start saying goodbye to conventional liquid fuels!
#12. Going Out in Style: In the bleak terrain of 2012
and beyond, "Affordable sophistication" will direct and inspire
products, fashion, music, the fine arts and entertainment at all levels. US
businesses would be wise to wake up and tap into the dormant desire for old
time quality and the America that was.
With unexcelled track record to prove it, no one can
provide a more accurate look into the future than Gerald Celente, Trends
Journal Publisher. Zeke West, Media
Relations<mailto:[email protected]> [email protected] 845 331.3500 Ext. 1
· Fed downgrades economic
forecast for this year
· Fed predicts high jobless
rate through 2012
· Top Obama
adviser says unemployment wont be key in 2012
· Goldman Sachs Slashes
Its US GDP Forecast Again
· U.S. recovery hopes
fade as economic growth dips
· 2012: The Year Of Living
Dangerously
· IMF cuts U.S. growth
forecast, warns of crisis
· Fed lowers GDP forecast,
holds policy steady
· 20
Signs That The World Could Be Headed For An Economic Apocalypse In 2012
· Payrolls Fall More
Than Forecast, Unemployment Rises