Dear Reader,
Over the next 6 to 9 months,
it’s going to wreak havoc on the economy, and on your life...
But you won’t hear this story
from the financial media, the Wall Street machine or bureaucrats in D.C.
Instead, they’ll tell you about
the improving economy one day… and better than expected unemployment numbers
the next…
You’ll hear about the next tech
IPO… a real estate rebound… low inflation… 3% to 4% GDP growth... and that
the Fed’s tapering will come off without a hitch.
But they’re not telling you the
whole story.
The fact is, the U.S. economy is
in very dangerous territory. More dangerous than anything we’ve seen since the
Great Depression.
And while the powers that be
would love for you to think everything is under control, you’ll soon realize we
are sitting on the precipice of the greatest global financial crisis in history.
And this time, no amount of Fed stimulus will be able to contain it.
It won’t be long until the most
ferocious… most unforgiving… and most destructive
economic force… one we’ve never experienced in our lifetime… will begin to rip
through markets, sectors and industries...
The “safe” assets that were the
biggest beneficiaries of this Fed-induced credit bubble will soon become its
biggest victims… record highs will become record lows… bubbles will burst…
there will be vast economic and political consequences…
And there’s nothing anyone can
do to stop it.
Not Washington.
Not Wall Street.
Not the Fed.
Those who don’t prepare now will
be devastated.
That’s why I’m here to warn you:
The recession is not
over yet...
Just months from now,
America will experience the final and most devastating phase of this financial
crisis… when one of the world’s most popular investments begins to turn sour
for all of its loyal followers.
When it does… when its $5.47 trillion bubble pops… it will
go from one of the market’s safest and
most popular sanctuaries… into the most
toxic investment on the planet.
And every aspect of
your finances will forever change as a result. From where you bank… to how you
invest… to when (and if) you retire…
I’ve never been more certain of
anything in over 30 years of economic forecasting.
But there are ways you can hedge
against it… ways to rescue (and grow) the bulk of your wealth.
Because even as America
unravels, debts soar, markets retreat, taxes skyrocket and incomes shrink…
there are still ways you can profit from the coming fallout… in specific
“decline-related” investments that fly when everything else fails.
For example, the one
investment that everyone is telling you to sell right now will continue to soar
as we have been forecasting for years. It’s the one investment
that hasn’t gotten pumped-up on cheap credit… that thrives when
there’s chaos… that soars when the market sinks… and
that you should start hoarding right away.
Before we get to that, I want to
warn you about the single greatest danger brewing in the global financial
markets today, and show you how to protect yourself.
I’ll also show you why the event
we’ve dubbed as the “Safe-Asset Slaughter” is about to happen… and why it will soon
have dire consequences for you, your wealth, and the world… consequences that
very few have yet to understand.
When you understand this event,
including the fundamental reasons driving it, you need not panic. You will see
there’s a tremendous upside to what will unfold over this decade and beyond.
After all, when you’re able to
know what’s coming – and position yourself accordingly – the years ahead could
be prosperous times.
In fact, I believe more money
will be lost – and made – in the 24 months following this event than any
time since the early 1930s.
And in this letter I’ll tell you
exactly how it will be done… I’ll even give you full details on the investment
I believe will be the biggest winner when the dust begins to settle…
Knowing the Future Can
Make You Rich
Hello, my name is Harry Dent.
You may know me from one of my many TV appearances on CNBC, CNN, Fox and PBS.
In the late ‘80s I started up a
ground breaking investment research firm with one major goal: to
pioneer a whole new science in economic forecasting.
I also began to write a series
of investment books based on our findings. And although many of these books
went on to become New York Times bestsellers, the bold predictions –
and the techniques I use to make these predictions - were at first received
with fierce rejection by my peers and the public alike.
For example, in 1989, I released
a book called Our Power to Predict.
In this book I called modern day
economics a “miserable failure” because it failed at its fundamental mission of
predicting the future. I discovered this while studying economics in college
back in the ‘70s.
It was then I realized the
subject was too vague, inconclusive and imprecise… and couldn’t provide the
answers to economic trends and the markets I was looking for.
I was shocked that only a few
forecasters could foresee boom and busts before they occurred… and economists
were always split over their opinions when looking at the same facts… it was
like they all studied different courses in economics.
So disillusioned by the state of
my chosen course of study, I changed my major to accounting and finance after
just three classes.
It wasn’t until I began working
on my master’s degree at Harvard Business School that I found my true calling –
studying cycles. After learning that technology and product life cycles were
critical to the success (and failure) of businesses…
I first consulted to Fortune 100
companies at Bain & Company. But I was drawn more to innovation and began
consulting in California to new ventures and quickly discovered how the massive
Baby Boomer Generation was igniting new trends.
I immediately began studying
everything from annual cycles to decennial cycles… 4-year presidential cycles
to 30-year commodity cycles….4-month stock market cycles to 36-year
geopolitical cycles… 500-year mega-innovation cycles to 5,000-year civilization
cycles…
I was on a quest to crack the
code of economic evolution…to unravel the immutable bylaws of business… to
discover the laws that make the investment planets spin… markets bloom and die…
corporations flourish and fizzle…
It wasn’t long before I
accidentally stumbled upon the big secret I was looking for…
An approach to economic
forecasting that can accurately predict market trends years and decades into
the future… over the rest of your lifetime.
It's an approach we call the Spending Wave.
The Power of the Spending
Wave
I first discovered the Spending
Wave in the ‘80s, and it is the main one on which my firm has based all its
forecasts to date, including the ones we made in our best-selling books (The
Great Boom Ahead, The Roaring 2000s, and The
Great Depression Ahead).
And this is the reason for our
success and the reason why we have been able to predict and profit from events
others couldn’t predict… and why everyone from entrepreneurs to financial
advisers subscribe to our research…
It’s how we predicted:
The
Fall of Japan (over one year before it fell.) In my very first book, Our Power to
Predict, at a time when economists were forecasting that Japan would
overtake the United States, I warned readers that Japan would soon experience a
1929-style depression that would catch the world by surprise. In 1990, Japan’s
economy went into a free-fall as real estate prices tumbled 60% and the Nikkei
plummeted from nearly 40,000 to 7,831 – 80% - over a 13-year period. Decades
later, Japan’s real estate market is still down 60% and its stock
market is still 55% off its 1989 high!
The
Great Tech Boom of the 1990s.
In my 1993 book The Great Boom Ahead I said the Dow would soarfrom
2,900 well into five figures over most of the coming decade… that cheap credit
would spur one of the greatest real estate booms in decades… and that
innovations, especially in information technology, would create more opportunity
in the decade ahead than anything we’d seen since the Industrial Revolution. I
was most known for my forecast of Dow 10,000 by 2,000 back then.
The
Booms and Busts of the 2000s.
In The Great Boom Ahead we also predicted that America would embark on
one of its biggest boom periods ever and that despite minor dips, we stated
that this boom would crescendo around 2003 to 2007 in what would probably
be its biggest 5-year bull market run ever. And then came 2008, for the very
same reasons that we were saying Japan was about to fall into a depression, so
too would America.
And
the events I wrote about in my most recent bestselling book The Demographic
Cliff are beginning to unfold right now at a breathtaking pace… which
is why I’m alerting you today about the coming “Safe-Asset Slaughter”
that will catch millions of investors completely off guard.
This is the power of the
Spending Wave.
Once you understand how it
works, you’ll start to see how simple predicting the economy really
could be… and why you don’t need to be an economist to do it.
For the last 25 years, this is
something readers of my books have seen firsthand… they’ve enjoyed insights
that would have allowed them to ride all the market’s major trends.
The Spending Wave is the tool we
use to predict the future…
By understanding how it works,
you’ll be able to see that the basic movements of the economy are predictable
and can be forecast up to decades in advance.
In this presentation, I’ll tell
you all about it.
I’ll also tell you about:
The
Great Inflation Lie.
Wall Street believes that massive multi-trillion dollar government stimulus
programs are about to spark an “inflationary explosion.” But they’re wrong! A
much more powerful - and devastating – financial force, one that hasn’t reared
its ugly head since the Great Depression is about to wreak havoc on the
markets… the economy… and your life!
The
Greatest Economic Forecasting Tool I Have Ever Discovered. It is the main tool that I have used to
build a track record of success in this business, which spans decades, and
which as far as I know, has not been matched by any of my peers. This track
record is well documented in all my books and publications. This tool says that
Baby Boom spending is about to go off a cliff like we have never before seen.
How
to Prepare and Prosper During the Coming “Great Shake-Out”. We believe that the next five years
will be the most extraordinary in economic history. By the end of it, millions
of Americans will be a lot poorer. But a savvy few could be much, much richer.
And in this report, you’ll learn how they’ll do it.
Why
the “Trade of the Decades” Will Continue to Reverse. The one investment you may hold dear to
your heart…the one investment that helps you sleep better at night, that you
rely on for safety, security, and maybe even profits in a world gone mad…is
about to get slaughtered. When it happens, trillions in wealth will be wiped
out virtually overnight!
And
Why the One Investment Everyone is Telling You to Sell, Sell, Sell… is the
One Investment You Must Start Hoarding Right Now!
But before I do, it’s essential
you understand this one critical thing.
I’m talking about:
“The
One Force that Really Drives the Markets”
I’m sure you’ve heard about all
manner of forces that drive the market.
Some say it’s sentiment.
Some say it’s interest rates.
Others believe it is the price
of oil.
Or the Fed.
Or Barack Obama.
But I’m here today to tell you
that it’s none of those things.
The secret I’m about to
reveal to you is probably the greatest investment secret I have ever learned in
all my decades as an economic forecaster.
Here it is:
The one force that really
drives the markets above everything else is PEOPLE… and the kind of things
people like YOU and ME predictably spend our money on as we age.
It’s that simple.
Yet most economists seem to have
missed this point!
They’ll tell you that government
policies and government spending are the key factors that drive the economy.
But if this were true, if the
government really drove the economy, then the government should be able to
predict the economy based on its own actions.
We all know the track record on
that!
Spending statistics reveal that
consumers and businesses who serve them are the primary factor that drives the
economy. Eighty percent of all spending in the economy is by consumers and
businesses (68% is consumers), leaving the government’s share at 20%, including
state and local.
By looking at consumer spending
as a whole, we can see that the economy is very predictable and consumers, as a
group, act much like one massive spending force.
You see, births, like everything
in nature, occur in cycles. Births and immigration add new producers and
consumers to the economy in generational waves. These waves inevitably cause
growth as they move through the economy, especially the Baby Boom Generation
that has been likened to a "pig moving through a python."
In fact, the most important
cycle driving modern economies - like that of the United States and other
developed nations - are the new generations that come along every 40 years or
so.
Members of these generations
move up a predictable family life cycle of earning, spending and productivity.
We tend to enter the work-force
at age 20…
We get married at around age 26
and have kids around the ages of 28 and 29.
At roughly age 31 we buy starter
homes… then trade up to larger homes between ages 37 and 41, as our families
grow.
We enter our peak spending phase
– the period in our lives when we tend to have the most disposable income and
treat ourselves to cars, gadgets and so on – between ages 39 and 53. The actual
peak is at age 46 for the average household and 53 for the most affluent.
Between ages 46 and 64 our
spending habits tend to change dramatically. We see retirement not far off and
make a concerted effort to save, while our spending needs decline as our kids
leave the nest.
We retire at age 63 (on average)
and tend to have our greatest net worth at age 64 – cash, investments and
assets we’ve set aside to live on.
We may be all different, but on
average as a species we are highly predictable.
But the simplest and most
factual insight here is that our economy booms as new generations move
up this predictable spending cycle.
Knowing this, we’re able to
predict, decades in advance, what impact up-and-coming generations
could have on the economy, different consumer sectors and the markets.
This is something that very few
economists – even to this day – seem to understand…
But it’s something I discovered
suddenly out of a decade of intensive research back in the late ‘80s…
The Greatest Discovery of
My Career
As a “cycle guy” I always have
charts covering my desk, and when I first saw a graph of the American baby boom
and a chart of the S&P 500 adjusted for inflation sitting on my desk… I saw
a remarkable correlation, but over different time frames.
So, I put them together and
moved them over each other...
The correlation was on a 45- to
50-year lag. Someone else would have thought that a coincidence. But not me, I
knew from my demographic research that the peak in spending of the average
household was in that age range.
The result was stunning.
The correlation was undeniable.
The rise and fall in the number
of babies being born then followed almost the exact same wave as the
rise and the fall in the value of the stock market adjusted for inflation. I
eventually narrowed it down to age 46 for the peak in spending.
This has allowed us to predict
economic booms and busts, including stock market cycles that stretch as far as
five decades into the future as the chart above shows!
It is the greatest economic
indicator in history.
And it is the very same kind of
insight that insurance companies have used to predict the future (when we will
die) - and bet their trillions of dollars!
We have now dubbed and
popularized this indicator as The Generational Spending Wave.
Again, it’s important to
understand that we knew – as early as the late 1980s when we first developed
the Spending Wave technique – exactly when the Boomers would reach their peak
spending years and exactly when the stock market would have booms and busts.
I wrote about this in the first
book I published, Our Power to Predict. If you have any doubts, here
is the chart I created and gave to my readers back in 1989.
I’m sure, with one quick look,
you’ll notice how eerily accurate the chart was, and how closely the market has
followed the exact path I predicted to my readers.
And I’m certain you’ll realize
the kind of powerful trading advantages you would have by being in possession
of a chart like this.
In a moment I’ll tell
you how you can get an updated version of the chart… which you’ll be able to
use to play the markets going forward…
Even in major boom periods we
can see significant crashes and corrections in the markets. That is not
something long-term demographic trends can predict.
Regardless, it’s important you
understand that in the past 60 years, there have only been two brief periods
when the Dow and Baby Boom chart lines deviated and the Spending Wave indicator
was wrong.
The first was after the Great
Tech Wreck, but the trend line soon corrected itself.
The second time is now - as the
economy experiences something it’s never had before… the artificial
flooding of trillions of dollars in the name of the Fed’s Quantitative Easing
program.
Our research suggests the Fed’s
artificial propping-up of the markets is about to end… and as history has
shown, it won’t be long before these two lines right themselves again and are
back in sync.
And when that happens, get ready
for the biggest, steepest downturn in your lifetime…
The Greatest Economic
Reversal in History
In 2008, the world’s richest
generation – the Baby Boomers - began to withdraw from the economy... reversing
a major mega-trend in spending and borrowing habits.
After a three-decade long Spending
Spree (fueled by cheap credit, high wages and soaring stock market returns)
they’ve now begun to embark on a multi-decade long Saving Spree… after
decades of scaling up… they’re now starting to scale down… cashing in their
McMansions and their SUVs for smaller homes and cars…
Even worse, they will
increasingly cash out of the stock market – trading in their blue chips and
growth stocks for CDs, bonds and dollars…in order to start funding their
retirements!
The consequences this will have
on global markets in the years to come will be catastrophic.
As these trends continue to
accelerate and consumers continue to retrench, businesses will stumble and
defaults will escalate… the problem will feed on itself… and everything we’ve
been buying up is going to get very cheap… very quickly… over the next few
months…
Property
Prices Will Shed a Further 40% of their Values…as the greatest real estate bubble in
history continues to deflate. (New York, Boston, Washington D.C., Miami, Los
Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego will be hit the hardest – with McMansions
and commercial real estate leading the way). Seventeen percent of mortgages are
still seriously underwater. And in some States like Nevada the figure is closer
to 38%. And as the economic situation worsens, these figures will only escalate
again higher than before. Millions will be left owning homes that are worth
less than the money they owe on them. And they will begin to default en-masse.
It will be the Home-Shock of the Century!
The
Dow and S&P Will Resume Their Precipitous Slides, and according to what we believe is the
world’s greatest economic indicator – The Spending Wave - they will tumble as
much as 70%... reaching 6,000 or lower by early 2017 – maybe even as
low as 3,300 in the years to follow… and they won’t start to recover again
until around 2020 at the earliest.
Banks
Will Crash – Again!
But even bigger and harder than they did in 2008, for clearly it will be near
impossible for most of their clients to pay back the insurmountable debt loads
they now owe them. And the government will try to bail out only the biggest
banks – but they won’t be able to this time. It is actually the smaller
community banks that will survive the next banking crisis better, not the big
Bank-opolies!
The
Commercial Property Market Will be Hit the Worst of All. Their debt wave has already begun, and this
sector always gets hit the worst in major downturns. And in the next three and
a half years, a further $1.7 trillion worth of commercial real estate loans and
mortgages will come due…with bankrupt cities like Chicago and Detroit leading
the way…
And
the “Safe-Asset Slaughter” Will Follow.
Why the World’s Most Loved Asset is About to Become the Most Toxic Investment on the Planet…
It’s one of the most popular investments
on the planet.
It’s been called the ultimate
hedge against global crisis, inflation and a falling dollar.
And it’s the investment
everyone’s telling you to buy right now.
I’ve dubbed this asset’s demise
as the “Safe-Asset Slaughter” because in the next six to nine
months the investment that many will argue is the safest in the world is going
to crash.
How do I know this will happen?
Because I’ve studied over 400
years of economic bubbles, and the same distinct pattern that has led to almost
every crash in history has also developed in this supposedly safe investment.
For example, look at the Dutch
“Tulip Mania” Bubble of the 1630s…
The South Sea Bubble of
1718-1722…
The British Railway Mania Bubble
of the 1800s…
The Stock Market Crash of 1929…
More recently, the Tech Bubble…
And the Real Estate Bubble…
You’ll notice every one
of these bubbles has a very distinct, similar pattern. There’s a parabolic
price movement that becomes unsustainable that’s followed by an historic crash.
Bubbles don’t correct or have
soft landings as economists are naively proclaiming – they burst! No
exceptions.
This investment’s meteoric rise
and coming crash will be no different.
While this asset may never lose
its entire value, I am certain the most loved asset in the world is about to
become the most dangerous investment on the planet.
And even now, as it nears a
major crash… the alarmists and hyper-inflationists are still telling you it’s a
steady asset… that it’s been a store of value for centuries… and that it
performs well during inflationary times and during times of danger.
But it won’t be their go-to
safe-haven of choice much longer.
This toxic asset is simply
gold.
It’s one of the world’s most popular
investments and now it’s about to turn into one of the world’s most
dangerous!
While many economists will argue
that gold is not in a bubble… and insist it will soar to $2,000, $5,000 and
even $10,000, my research has said otherwise.
As I wrote in my most recent
book The Demographic Cliff… gold will be the last
bubble to burst!
Get Ready for $250 Gold
You don’t have to be an
economist to see that gold’s 670% run-up since 2000 is a classic bubble
pattern that’s virtually identical to the ones above… and its previous bubble
that peaked in 1980.
And here’s the thing about
economic bubbles that you must understand, bubbles almost always retreat to the
levels at which they started, or even lower.
Gold started to fall back
to reality starting in early 2013 for two primary reasons - the drop in
demand from emerging markets like India, and the failure of the Fed’s
escalating monetary stimulus to cause inflation, which caused leveraged hedge
funds and traders to dump their positions which escalated when margin calls
kicked in.
This is what happened in
2013 to 2014. Gold is likely to stage a final rally to around $1,300 to
$1,380 or so in 2015, before collapsing dramatically again.
Historically, gold tends to
rally in anticipation of a financial crisis, then collapses when debt
deleveraging and deflation sets in. This is exactly what it did in 2008.
I would advise selling any
remaining holdings of gold and silver on such a rally.
By early 2017 or so, the next
stop for gold will be around $700.
Ultimately, gold will likely
bottom around $250 and $400 between 2020 and 2023. $250 is an 80%
drop from the $1,200 level in late 2014. And silver is even more volatile.
It is likely to fall closer to $5 from its peak near $50 in April 2011 where I
gave a strong long-term sell signal.
In a nutshell, if you
bought any physical gold, silver or other precious metals, including coins,
bullion, even scrap over the last decade, take your profits now or on any
rallies ahead.
It’s not worth holding onto with
the 70% to 80% drop that’s on the horizon.
Before I show you how to shield
yourself from the yellow metal’s historic plunge… and how to rake in remarkable
profits from investments that will soar when everything else sinks… it’s
important you understand why gold’s demise is inevitable…
It Happens Like Clockwork Every 30 Years
Like all precious metals, gold
closely follows a larger primary cycle that peaks every 30 years.
It’s called the "30-Year
Commodity Cycle."
It’s one of the most important –
and accurate – cycles I track… a cycle that gold has historically followed very
closely...
Over the last decade, it’s not
just gold that soared. Nearly every major commodity has had a great boom:
Silver soared 603%... heating oil 1,313%... nickel 1,273%... crude oil
1,205%... lead 870%... copper 606%... zinc 616%... tin 510%... and wheat 500%.
But the great commodity boom of
the last decade has run its course.
Commodities peaked between 2008
and 2011, and the sector won’t rebound again until around 2023 or so. Gold and
silver have peaked just like they did at the top of the last commodity cycle in
1980.
But from around 2023
forward I expect to see the biggest commodity boom in modern history when
commodity-intensive emerging countries will drive most of the global growth.
That is another thing that demographics clearly tells us decades out.
Before I go any further, I want
to make something clear.
At Dent Research, we are not
gold bugs, nor are we gold-haters. We are economic realists who observe
economies, markets and trends.
This puts us at odds with both
gold bugs and gold-haters because we don’t stake-out a position and hold onto
it for dear life. We don’t do this because neither position is supported by
facts.
Research based on facts, not
emotion, is the secret to our firm’s longevity.
These facts are based on
something the other’s don’t have: scientific knowledge of the profound role
economic and demographic cycles play in understanding where the economy is
going next…
Using this knowledge you can
start preparing now so you don’t make the fatal mistake of piling into the wrong
investments… for all the wrong reasons… like the millions of
investors who will lose their shirts when they find out…
The Dollar is NOT Going to Zero
There’s one economic chart
that’s causing a lot of people to make financial mistakes they will regret for
a long time.
It’s the most misleading chart
in economic history.
It’s the one chart every gold
bug, alarmist and hyper-inflationist uses to convince the public that the
government is destroying your life and debasing our currency. It’s the value of
a dollar over time chart…
It actually means the opposite
of what everyone tells you.
It doesn’t mean the U.S. dollar
is going to zero and that your wealth is being stolen by the government’s
never-ending inflationary policies.
If we followed that logic,
people today should be poorer now than they were in 1900.
But we’re not! We’re eight times
richer even after adjusting for inflation.
The truth is currencies trade
relative to each other. If one currency falls, another must rise. They don’t
have absolute values like stocks that are based on earnings.
Currencies are simply a means of
trading services and goods among people and countries.
If you print more currency to
artificially stimulate the economy as we have since 2008 in the United
States, yes, you can devalue your currency. But in a period when almost all
major nations (thirty eight at last count) are printing money and devaluing
their currencies at the same time…
The Fed has printed over $3
trillion in QE and will likely print again when the next financial crisis sets
in. And the ECB for the euro zone, with a population roughly the size of ours,
has printed more than $3 trillion, with more starting in late 2014 just as the
U.S. finally tapered.
The dollar has appreciated in
value versus the euro since the crisis ignited in early 2008. It actually
appreciated 27% vs. the six major global currencies in the late 2008 meltdown
as the chart below shows. It was the safe haven, not gold and silver that fell
33% and 50% respectively.
Point is, when nations are
printing money at the same time, currencies do not just go to zero. They
appreciate or depreciate relative to each country’s money printing, trade
imbalances, debt, and economic progress.
This is why the dollar is not
going to zero and why it will not lose its world reserve currency status in the
next decade.
In a moment, I’ll tell you how
to prepare for this in regards to your investments, your business and your
life…
For example, you’ll learn about
the country that’s being hailed as “Little China.” As American, European and
Japanese economies face one of the biggest demographic crises in history… one
country is beginning to see a demographic boom surge through its economy. Each
day, waves of young people enter its workforce and they’re earning more,
spending more and giving more to their economy (in both taxes and
productivity). As they do, they will drive well-positioned companies to greater
profits. In turn, these companies will repay their investors with faster,
bigger gains and fatter dividend checks.
And you’ll also learn why you
should start hoarding the one investment everyone is telling you to sell, sell,
sell! But first, I need to warn you about one of the most closely watched
economic numbers on the planet…
The Great Inflation Lie!
I’m about to smash one of the
biggest economic myths out there.
Most people believe inflation is
bad for the American people and the economy, but it’s not.
I discovered this myth over 30
years ago while studying 3,000 years of Western history, from the rise of
Greece and Rome through the era of Western Europe and U.S. dominance.
I observed that inflation rises
during times when the population is growing, urbanization is rising, and the
most powerful new technologies and innovations are advancing into the
mainstream.
When I first encountered the
association between inflation and innovation, I was shocked.
I always thought inflation was a
bad thing.
And inflation has been bad
during certain eras, like in the 1970s, when productivity was low, or at times
of major wars.
Yet inflation is
actually the single greatest indicator of progress and when it does not get out
of control it’s good for the economy.
Let’s go back to circa 1900,
when the dollar adjusted for inflation started falling, a time when our economy
was still over 60% rural.
During the 20th century, life
was simpler, families were less affluent, and households were largely
self-sufficient.
Most people were farmers,
trappers, miners, and the like. They would build their own house; hunt, fish,
and farm for most of their food; cook their food and wash their clothes; and
raise and even educate their own kids.
In such an economy and
lifestyle, people didn’t rely much on transactions with others, beyond the need
for basic tools and farming supplies, pots, guns and ammunition, flour, and a
plow, things a person could buy at the general store. And people would barter
for goods they couldn’t buy.
They did not need credit to buy
things like homes or cars. Healthcare spending cost almost nothing and they
didn’t plan for retirement.
It was a basic,
commodities-based economy.
Fast forward to 2014’s highly
urban, industrial, service economy…
Almost no one hunts for food,
grows their own food, or builds their own house. Most people don’t even fix
anything at their house. Instead, we hire plumbers, electricians, landscapers,
handymen...
People have maids, nannies, and
babysitters and use all types of local services, including dry cleaners,
grocery stores, pharmacies, convenience stores, and gas stations... and all
types of utilities and services are delivered right to our house at a very low
cost, including electricity, water, sewer, cable, Internet, and even pizzas!
We go to doctors, tax
accountants, lawyers, dentists, financial advisers, mortgage brokers, real
estate agents, and so on.
Compared to a family from 100
years ago, the typical household today has a much higher income and outsources
a massive number of tasks.
This concept is called the
Specialization of Labor. It’s something Adam Smith wrote about 239 years
ago in The Wealth of Nations.
Simply put, it means the more we
focus on what we do best, and the more productive we become, the more we can
afford to have others do things for us that we don’t do best or are not
interested in doing.
That means there is
exponentially more trade, dollars, and credit to facilitate. That’s why
monetary expansion or inflation is natural and inevitable.
And it’s why inflation is
a very positive thing for the economy and for humanity.
The correct measure is our
incomes adjusted for inflation, not the number of dollars in circulation. And,
such incomes adjusted for inflation have gone up 8 times since 1900.
But here’s the thing…
Inflation is NOT Coming
Many Americans are still betting
on inflation at the moment.
They keep buying new houses, new
cars, and every new electronic gadget imaginable – because getting credit is
easier again and they think prices will be more expensive next week.
And while some things may be
more expensive next week, many things are about to get a whole lot cheaper. You
might want to hold off on making any major purchases now – until they’re at
bargain basement price in a few months.
You see, we’re seven years
into the most massive money printing scheme in history… it only takes 12 to 18
months for this money to move into the financial system… but we still don’t
have inflation.
Why is that?
Because all this money printing
is occurring not to fight inflation, but to prevent deflation. No politician
wants the next Great Depression to happen on their watch.
Yes, America’s public debt total
of $20.3 trillion has the power to trigger rampant inflation… but it won’t…and
it’s not that debt figure you should be worrying about anyway.
There’s a much more dangerous
type of debt buried in the U.S. economy… a debt that affects everything from
the stock market, to the bond market, to the housing market… and everything in
between.
And it’s DOUBLE the size of the
national debt.
It’s private debt.
This is the enormous amount of
debt held by U.S. banks, corporations and citizens.
$14.1 trillion in leveraged
banking and financial services debt…
$13.6 trillion in corporate
debt…
And $12.5 trillion in consumer
debt – mortgages, car loans, credit cards…
All this combined debt leads to a staggeringly high figure
that exceeds $40 trillion. That figure dwarfs the amount of the current
public debt by a factor of two!
But it’s not the massive private
debt that you should be worrying about per se… it’s when it starts to get paid
back... that should scare the hell out of you.
Yes, when individuals pay down
their debt it’s a good thing.
But when millions of
individuals, banks and businesses ALL pay down their debt down simultaneously,
especially when many debts default and are restructured… it’s catastrophic.
The economic term for this is
deleveraging.
This is when all debt gets
purged from the system - it’s a time when individuals, banks and businesses
pull trillions of dollars out of the economy. We saw an acceleration of failing
debts in the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. And we will see much more just
ahead.
From a demographic perspective,
instead of borrowing and spending more, people start to spend less. They start
to pay off past debt. Instead of boosting corporate sales and profits, they
subtract from them. Instead of driving up asset prices, they push them down.
And it is glaringly clear that
people in America today do not have the monumental resources required to pay
back this impossible debt load. So more and more of this debt will have to be
written off in the years to come.
The enormous deleveraging of private
debt will NOT cause inflationin the decade ahead - it will
cause deflation!
The last time there was
substantial deflation was during the Great Depression, from around 1930 to
1933, and the economy didn't really recover until World War II.
So what is deflation and how
does it impact the economy?
Deflation, as the name suggests,
is the exact opposite of inflation.
Inflation happens when there’s too much money chasing
scarce goods. This particularly occurs when productivity is very low, like in
the 1970s.
With deflation, the
opposite occurs. There’s too little money chasing increasingly abundant goods
after a very high productivity period, like the 1930s. There’s less money
flowing because credit tightens up, causing money to become scarce. And because
demographic trends turn down and people have less money to spend, demand for
goods and services go down. And when demand goes down, so do prices.
In just a moment, I’ll tell you
about the one investment that you should start hoarding as we enter this
deflationary era…
But first, let me first tell you
about:
“The Great Shake-Out
Ahead”
We entered a new economic
cycle starting in 2008.
I refer to this cycle as “The
Economic Winter Season” - because it is a time to hunker down and regroup… a
time to clear the decks and "shake-out" the excesses of the previous
boom so that the “Economic Spring Season” can begin.
Nature has an order of things.
And as I’ve learned through my
30 years of researching economic cycles and demographic dynamics, so do markets
and the economy.
Every cycle I have studied in
history has four seasons, just like our weather. Think of inflation in
"temperature" terms.
They are:
SPRING: The Innovation BOOM.
SUMMER: The Inflationary Bust.
AUTUMN: The Maturity BOOM.
WINTER:
The Deflationary
Bust.
High inflation is like the
summer season of 1969 to 1982. Falling inflation is like the fall season with
great harvests and a bubble boom from 1983 to 2007. Winter follows with
deflation in prices to clear the decks for the next spring boom and so on…
That’s why we’re not worried
about the years ahead.
In fact, we welcome them.
With each passing day America
gets one step closer to regaining its glory as the world’s leading economic
force. There will soon be an economic consolidation, followed by a resurrection
and a period of growth again… some investors will be devastated, others will
get very rich.
As I mentioned, the Winter
Season is a deflationary season. And I’m convinced that the commentators and
investment crowd are setting up millions of investors for the wrong economic
season... they are recommending you make financial decisions right now that you
may regret for the rest of your life…
They’re telling you to load
portfolios up with stuff like gold… Chinese manufacturers… Russian oil and gas…
Brazilian copper… wheat, corn, silver, sugar… emerging markets… foreign
currencies…
But they’re dressing you for the
WRONG economic season…
You need to prepare for the
great economic winter ahead.
Because with any major shift in
economic direction comes enormous profit opportunities.
So how can you take advantage of
the myriad of opportunities as this crisis strikes?
You’ll find full details inside
my new report, which you’ll get free of charge.
Before I show you how to claim
your copy, it’s important you understand that this is a critical time in your
life.
You have two choices, you can…
- Do nothing… just pretend the market’s coming collapse,
gold’s crash, real estate getting crushed and deflation will have zero
effect on your portfolio and retirement plans. Or…
- Get ready to make a fortune! You can position your
finances now - so when the gold bubble bursts, the stock market crashes,
and the economy gets chaotic, you’ll have the opportunity to make more in
the next five months than you’ve made in the last five years.
Again… this is not the time to
be complacent and gamble with your financial security. You owe it to yourself,
and to your family, to get a clear picture of what’s ahead.
Get Rich From Deflation!
Now in the special report How
to Profit Through the Coming Safe-Asset Slaughter, I’ll introduce you
to little-known ways to not just beat deflation – but get rich from it.
In order to soar through the new
era ahead, you’ll need a new financial plan. In this report, I’ll introduce you
to an alternative investment universe of outstanding (yet misunderstood)
deflation-proof opportunities.
And one of the first investments
you’ll learn about in the report is one you’re already familiar with…
It’s the investment everyone
is telling you to sell right now…
But while you might be familiar
with it, I doubt you’ll be familiar with the unique and little-known ways to
profit from it…
The investment is a true
safe-haven in this once-in-a-lifetime deflationary era.
In this unique deflationary
period it can be as safe as a bank CD!
It’s one of the most liquid
investments in the world.
Over $5 trillion is traded in it
every day!
In the great recession and last
financial meltdown this investment surged while gold and silver plunged.
And in times of trouble it is
hands down – the No. 1 investment – everybody runs to… from Buffett to Soros…
the Chinese to the Japanese… the Russians to the Romanians… from Wall Street to
Main Street…
In fact,
the last time the markets crashed in 2008, it went up 27% in just
four months…it was the one of the few things that soared when almost
everything dived… yet the downside risk to the smart Americans who made it was
very low.
I’m talking about the U.S.
dollar.
But not just any old cash…specifically
the U.S. dollar versus other currencies…and the revolutionary and innovative
new ways in which you can play it – ways that can significantly
boost your returns when almost everything else on the planet is crashing!
And in How to Profit
Through the Coming Safe-Asset Slaughter you’ll learn all about them.
Plus you’ll learn about more ways to play the dollar and more ways to profit
through the era ahead, including:
A
special bank account where
you can get interest rates at 7-times what you’ll get from America’s
zombie banks…and where your money will be far safer. This bank
does not engage in risky lending practices. And it is so strongly capitalized,
that it didn’t even need to apply for TARP assistance during the credit crisis.
In fact deposits gushed, and the bank boomed.
How
to Rake in Years’ Worth of Gains – in Just Months – by Playing the Other Side of the Market. In the past it was very difficult for
ordinary investors to make money off a market crash. You needed special trading
accounts and at least a half a million dollars in a margin account in order to
short a stock or a market, so it was usually a game reserved just for the big
boys. But in the past few years, literally hundreds of inverse ETFs have
launched onto the market. These revolutionary new funds allow ordinary
investors to short all kinds of things from stocks to bonds…commodities to
currencies…Dow industrials to Dot-coms… We’ll show you how for as little as $29
a trade you can now short (and profit from market crashes) just like the Big
Boys!
The
Next 3 Big Shorts.
The last time the markets crashed, and most investors watched half the value of
their portfolios go up in smoke, investors in these 3 simple little inverse
ETFs made as much as 15%…61% and 105% in as little as 4 months flat!
It’s all in your FREE copy of How
to Profit Through the Coming Safe-Asset Slaughter. You’ll get this
research, at no cost to you, when you take a no-risk, trial subscription to Boom
& Bust – my monthly research advisory.
Before I show you how to access
your copy, let me tell you about an unusual income opportunity most people will
never hear about…
The World’s No. 1 Demographic Dividend King!
There’s one region… one country… and one strategy that’s destined to outperform all the rest after the next great crash!
It’s the country the Economist
recently said would outgrow every other “for the next 20-25 years.”
It also said that the way this
country does business “will change the world.”
The IMF claims it will even
outperform China!
In fact, according to the famous
economist and Nobel laureate, James Mirrlees, this country is already twice
as productive as China… a revelation that is stunning economists and analysts
around the world.
We are convinced it will be the
greatest growth opportunity for the next two decades (and beyond)…
For example, this country
boasts:
The Biggest Demographic Dividend of Any Nation on the Planet. Its proportion of children and senior
citizens to working-age adults is second to none, and will remain so for more
than a generation!
A
Savings Rate that is 35% of its GDP. That’s a rate that is almost incomprehensible to the
West! (And with all that spare cash; its citizens are about to go on the
biggest shopping binge the world has ever seen!)
More
Entrepreneurs Per Capita than China!
Two
of the Biggest Stock Exchanges in the World…
By the end of the decade this
economy may be one of the five largest on the planet!
We’ll tell you all about this
emerging giant, and the best ways to invest in it, in another FREE alert we’ll
send you when you sign up for your risk-free trial to Boom & Bust.
It’s called Get Rich off
the Demographic Dividend King!
In it, you’ll learn:
The
No. 1 Way to Get in on the Biggest Building Boom in Human History! The government of this Demographic Dividend
King will spend a half a trillion dollars on infrastructure
projects in just the next few years! This is a paradigm shift. It is not
merely an increase in spending. It’s a transformation. And until
recently, no American could directly get in on this monumental building boom.
But now they can. We’ll show you how.
Revolutionary
New Ways to Invest in Literally Scores
of this Demographic Dividend King’s Greatest Small Cap Companies. These smaller companies were previously
unavailable to American investors. They are not widely known or discussed in
the popular Western financial press. Now because of all this, they are (for the
moment) severely undervalued! And
finally there’s a safe and easy new way to pick up literally scores of them
with one just one $29 keystroke! We’ll tell you all about it.
The
Emerging Asian Corporate Giant that Could be One of the 10 Biggest Companies in
the World by 2020!
This company is unraveling the commercial secrets of the emerging markets of
the East, conquering them head on, and leaving their competitors in a blaze of
dust.
Sign up for your risk-free trial
subscription to Boom & Bust today, and we’ll rush you a copy of
Get Rich off the Demographic Dividend King immediately!
And this is just one of the new
demographic dividend kings you’ll learn about as a new Boom & Bust subscriber.
Although demographics and
spending waves are trending down sharply in the West, they’re just gathering
momentum in the East.
That’s why you need to get my
research in your hands right away.
When you take a trial
subscription to my research advisory, you’ll receive:
12 issues of Boom & Bust. Our exclusive research advisory letter – packed with alternative
Survival-of-the-Fittest Investment Strategies, including Shakeout Winners,
Emerging Market Investments and many other strategies that you won’t find on
the pages of The Wall Street Journal or Barron’s…This print
and online newsletter will be sent right to your physical
and virtual mail-box - once a month!
How to Profit Through the Coming Safe-Asset Slaughter. Inside this special report, you’ll find
everything you need to know to prepare and profit when the gold bubble bursts.
Plus, you’ll also learn five unique investments to make a small fortune as the
dollar strengthens. These plays will soar while traditional investments get
pummeled.
Get Rich off the Demographic Dividend King! If you missed out on the incredible
emerging market boom in recent years, don’t worry. There’s a dynamic modern
Asian market tiger that has been ignored by American and Wall Street investors.
It’s an emerging market hidden gem with demographics that will cause it to
enjoy a multi-decade bull market run that will be the envy of Asia. We’ve found
three ways to make serious gains there in the years ahead.
At Dent Research, we have a team
of economists, demographers, researchers and investment analysts working
diligently to prepare our followers for what lies ahead.
Many of our readers rely on our
forecasts and guidance to help them make investment decisions and plan for
retirement.
They’re people like Lance
Copeland from Mill Valley, California, who writes:
“Thank you for your insights and valuable information! I intend
on following all the information you have provided in order to survive and
prosper, during the next couple of decades, as I approach and enter
retirement!”
And Ben Brown, from Dallas,
Texas, who got out of the stock market in 2008 after we warned about the
impending crash:
“I have been following the work of Mr. Dent for many years and
I credit him with getting me out of the stock market before the 2008 crash.”
Many more who follow our
research firmly believe in our use of demographic trends to predict where the
markets are going next…
Like Steve Graves from Naples,
Florida, who says:
“I really admire your intelligence regarding financial markets
and I am in awe of your use of demographics to predict future markets. In
short, it is brilliant.”
Tom Estes from Glastonbury,
Connecticut, tells us:
“I have been following Harry since 1994. It’s not difficult to
understand people drive economies. I owe the stability of my investments to
Harry and his demographic life cycle.”
And Dave Collins, from Reston,
Virginia, writes:
“I truly believe in your methods that demographic trends are
one of the most
important underlying drivers of our world economy… I believe in your
research.”
It’s very rewarding to see our
research being recognized so positively by so many of our loyal followers.
But our goal, first and
foremost, is that our research be used to avert financial disaster and empower
investors to profit from the many opportunities that arise during periods of
profound economic change.
If you’d like us to be with you
through this entire period – so we can point you to the best profit
opportunities as events unfold – the best thing to do now is sign up for my
monthly letter, which my team and I put together specifically to help regular
folks like you prepare for the winter season.
So how much does my monthly
newsletter cost?
And how can you get started
right away?
I think you’ll be surprised and
pleased at how cheap it is. Especially when you see the depth of the research
the Dent Research team puts into each 12-page monthly issue. The research on
the coming Safe-Asset Slaughter alone has been in the works for years.
Here’s how to get started right
away…
How to subscribe now
One year of Boom & Bust costs
$98 a year.
This is a great deal –
especially when you consider my fee to speak at financial events is $10,000+
for an hour of my time.
But today I’d like to offer you
a much better deal. You can get a year’s worth of my research for less than the
cost of a tank of gas.
Why is it so affordable?
Well, with the tumultuous times
I predict in the months ahead, I want to get my research in the hands of as
many people as possible. To make that happen, I’ve made it available to you at
the absolute lowest rate we’ve ever made it available for.
Take advantage of this special
offer, and try my research for 50% OFF the regular price.
You’ll pay just $49 for an
entire year of my work, including:
Research
Report #1: How to Profit Through the Coming Safe-Asset Slaughter
Research
Report #2: Get Rich off the Demographic Dividend King!
12
monthly issues of Boom & Bust – Dent Research’s
monthly newsletter – sent to your inbox and mailbox at the beginning of every
month.
PLUS:
Every week –
between issues – you’ll get Dent Digest. This weekly alert will give
you insights and analysis of economic data that will impact your business
decisions, your investments and your family.
Actually, subscribe
within the next 7 days and I’ll also send you another FREE demographics-based
report…
It’s called: 12 Steps to Survive and Prosper in
the Winter Season…
In it you’ll discover which
assets you should keep and which ones you should sell now… the important cash
strategies for making sure your money is safe from the many ways banks,
governments and corporations will try to usurp your money to pay their bills…
and how to organize your finances so you can generate maximum cash and income,
24 hours a day.
The key to successfully
surviving and profiting from the major economic and market shifts ahead is to
prepare before they come.
And in 12 Steps to
Survive and Prosper in the Winter Season you’ll learn exactly what
you should be doing now.
And it’s yours FREE just for
signing up for your risk-free trial subscription to Boom & Bust –
within the next seven days!
Best of all, you can look at our
research, commentary and recommendations at absolutely no risk or obligation.
This is all 100% guaranteed.
You have a full year to decide
if it's right for you.
If at any time during
your trial subscription period you decide our work isn’t right for you – simply
let us know and we’ll see to it that you receive a full, prompt and courteous
refund of the unused amount on your subscription.
There’s nothing you have to give
back…
No conditions you need to meet.
You’re either thrilled with our
work or you are eligible for a refund– and keep everything you’ve received.
I sincerely hope you’ll consider
this offer.
Thank you so much for listening
to this important presentation.
I hope you’ll find that signing
up for my Boom & Bust letter will be one of the best
financial moves you’ll ever make.
Because, the “Safe Asset
Slaughter” will strike with full force in the next few months, and while
everyone else will be wondering what hit them, you’ll have seen it coming in
plenty of time… and you’ll have a clear, profitable plan in place.
To get started, simply
call 1-800-507-9382 and mention
Promocode EBNBR237 or click on the “Subscribe Now” link below.
Sincerely,
Harry Dent Jr.
January 2015