Over the next 6 to 9 months, it’s going to wreak havoc on the economy, and on your life...
But you won’t hear this story from the financial media, the Wall Street machine or bureaucrats in D.C.
Instead, they’ll tell you about the improving economy one day… and better than expected unemployment numbers the next…
You’ll hear about the next tech IPO… a real estate rebound… low inflation… 3% to 4% GDP growth... and that the Fed’s tapering will come off without a hitch.
But they’re not telling you the whole story.
The fact is, the U.S. economy is in very dangerous territory. More dangerous than anything we’ve seen since the Great Depression.
And while the powers that be would love for you to think everything is under control, you’ll soon realize we are sitting on the precipice of the greatest global financial crisis in history. And this time, no amount of Fed stimulus will be able to contain it.
It won’t be long until the most ferocious… most unforgiving… and most destructive economic force… one we’ve never experienced in our lifetime… will begin to rip through markets, sectors and industries...
The “safe” assets that were the biggest beneficiaries of this Fed-induced credit bubble will soon become its biggest victims… record highs will become record lows… bubbles will burst… there will be vast economic and political consequences…
And there’s nothing anyone can do to stop it.
Not Wall Street.
Not the Fed.
Those who don’t prepare now will be devastated.
That’s why I’m here to warn you:
The recession is not over yet...
Just months from now, America will experience the final and most devastating phase of this financial crisis… when one of the world’s most popular investments begins to turn sour for all of its loyal followers.
When it does… when its $5.47 trillion bubble pops… it will go from one of the market’s safest and most popular sanctuaries… into the most toxic investment on the planet.
And every aspect of your finances will forever change as a result. From where you bank… to how you invest… to when (and if) you retire…
I’ve never been more certain of anything in over 30 years of economic forecasting.
But there are ways you can hedge against it… ways to rescue (and grow) the bulk of your wealth.
Because even as America unravels, debts soar, markets retreat, taxes skyrocket and incomes shrink… there are still ways you can profit from the coming fallout… in specific “decline-related” investments that fly when everything else fails.
For example, the one investment that everyone is telling you to sell right now will continue to soar as we have been forecasting for years. It’s the one investment that hasn’t gotten pumped-up on cheap credit… that thrives when there’s chaos… that soars when the market sinks… and that you should start hoarding right away.
Before we get to that, I want to warn you about the single greatest danger brewing in the global financial markets today, and show you how to protect yourself.
I’ll also show you why the event we’ve dubbed as the “Safe-Asset Slaughter” is about to happen… and why it will soon have dire consequences for you, your wealth, and the world… consequences that very few have yet to understand.
When you understand this event, including the fundamental reasons driving it, you need not panic. You will see there’s a tremendous upside to what will unfold over this decade and beyond.
After all, when you’re able to know what’s coming – and position yourself accordingly – the years ahead could be prosperous times.
In fact, I believe more money will be lost – and made – in the 24 months following this event than any time since the early 1930s.
And in this letter I’ll tell you exactly how it will be done… I’ll even give you full details on the investment I believe will be the biggest winner when the dust begins to settle…
Hello, my name is Harry Dent. You may know me from one of my many TV appearances on CNBC, CNN, Fox and PBS.
In the late ‘80s I started up a ground breaking investment research firm with one major goal: to pioneer a whole new science in economic forecasting.
I also began to write a series of investment books based on our findings. And although many of these books went on to become New York Times bestsellers, the bold predictions – and the techniques I use to make these predictions - were at first received with fierce rejection by my peers and the public alike.
For example, in 1989, I released a book called Our Power to Predict.
In this book I called modern day economics a “miserable failure” because it failed at its fundamental mission of predicting the future. I discovered this while studying economics in college back in the ‘70s.
It was then I realized the subject was too vague, inconclusive and imprecise… and couldn’t provide the answers to economic trends and the markets I was looking for.
I was shocked that only a few forecasters could foresee boom and busts before they occurred… and economists were always split over their opinions when looking at the same facts… it was like they all studied different courses in economics.
So disillusioned by the state of my chosen course of study, I changed my major to accounting and finance after just three classes.
It wasn’t until I began working on my master’s degree at Harvard Business School that I found my true calling – studying cycles. After learning that technology and product life cycles were critical to the success (and failure) of businesses…
I first consulted to Fortune 100 companies at Bain & Company. But I was drawn more to innovation and began consulting in California to new ventures and quickly discovered how the massive Baby Boomer Generation was igniting new trends.
I immediately began studying everything from annual cycles to decennial cycles… 4-year presidential cycles to 30-year commodity cycles….4-month stock market cycles to 36-year geopolitical cycles… 500-year mega-innovation cycles to 5,000-year civilization cycles…
I was on a quest to crack the code of economic evolution…to unravel the immutable bylaws of business… to discover the laws that make the investment planets spin… markets bloom and die… corporations flourish and fizzle…
It wasn’t long before I accidentally stumbled upon the big secret I was looking for…
An approach to economic forecasting that can accurately predict market trends years and decades into the future… over the rest of your lifetime.
It's an approach we call the Spending Wave.
I first discovered the Spending Wave in the ‘80s, and it is the main one on which my firm has based all its forecasts to date, including the ones we made in our best-selling books (The Great Boom Ahead, The Roaring 2000s, and The Great Depression Ahead).
And this is the reason for our success and the reason why we have been able to predict and profit from events others couldn’t predict… and why everyone from entrepreneurs to financial advisers subscribe to our research…
It’s how we predicted:
The Fall of Japan (over one year before it fell.) In my very first book, Our Power to Predict, at a time when economists were forecasting that Japan would overtake the United States, I warned readers that Japan would soon experience a 1929-style depression that would catch the world by surprise. In 1990, Japan’s economy went into a free-fall as real estate prices tumbled 60% and the Nikkei plummeted from nearly 40,000 to 7,831 – 80% - over a 13-year period. Decades later, Japan’s real estate market is still down 60% and its stock market is still 55% off its 1989 high!
The Great Tech Boom of the 1990s. In my 1993 book The Great Boom Ahead I said the Dow would soarfrom 2,900 well into five figures over most of the coming decade… that cheap credit would spur one of the greatest real estate booms in decades… and that innovations, especially in information technology, would create more opportunity in the decade ahead than anything we’d seen since the Industrial Revolution. I was most known for my forecast of Dow 10,000 by 2,000 back then.
The Booms and Busts of the 2000s. In The Great Boom Ahead we also predicted that America would embark on one of its biggest boom periods ever and that despite minor dips, we stated that this boom would crescendo around 2003 to 2007 in what would probably be its biggest 5-year bull market run ever. And then came 2008, for the very same reasons that we were saying Japan was about to fall into a depression, so too would America.
And the events I wrote about in my most recent bestselling book The Demographic Cliff are beginning to unfold right now at a breathtaking pace… which is why I’m alerting you today about the coming “Safe-Asset Slaughter” that will catch millions of investors completely off guard.
This is the power of the Spending Wave.
Once you understand how it works, you’ll start to see how simple predicting the economy really could be… and why you don’t need to be an economist to do it.
For the last 25 years, this is something readers of my books have seen firsthand… they’ve enjoyed insights that would have allowed them to ride all the market’s major trends.
The Spending Wave is the tool we use to predict the future…
By understanding how it works, you’ll be able to see that the basic movements of the economy are predictable and can be forecast up to decades in advance.
In this presentation, I’ll tell you all about it.
I’ll also tell you about:
The Great Inflation Lie. Wall Street believes that massive multi-trillion dollar government stimulus programs are about to spark an “inflationary explosion.” But they’re wrong! A much more powerful - and devastating – financial force, one that hasn’t reared its ugly head since the Great Depression is about to wreak havoc on the markets… the economy… and your life!
The Greatest Economic Forecasting Tool I Have Ever Discovered. It is the main tool that I have used to build a track record of success in this business, which spans decades, and which as far as I know, has not been matched by any of my peers. This track record is well documented in all my books and publications. This tool says that Baby Boom spending is about to go off a cliff like we have never before seen.
How to Prepare and Prosper During the Coming “Great Shake-Out”. We believe that the next five years will be the most extraordinary in economic history. By the end of it, millions of Americans will be a lot poorer. But a savvy few could be much, much richer. And in this report, you’ll learn how they’ll do it.
Why the “Trade of the Decades” Will Continue to Reverse. The one investment you may hold dear to your heart…the one investment that helps you sleep better at night, that you rely on for safety, security, and maybe even profits in a world gone mad…is about to get slaughtered. When it happens, trillions in wealth will be wiped out virtually overnight!
And Why the One Investment Everyone is Telling You to Sell, Sell, Sell… is the One Investment You Must Start Hoarding Right Now!
But before I do, it’s essential you understand this one critical thing.
I’m talking about:
I’m sure you’ve heard about all manner of forces that drive the market.
Some say it’s sentiment.
Some say it’s interest rates.
Others believe it is the price of oil.
Or the Fed.
Or Barack Obama.
But I’m here today to tell you that it’s none of those things.
The secret I’m about to reveal to you is probably the greatest investment secret I have ever learned in all my decades as an economic forecaster.
Here it is:
The one force that really drives the markets above everything else is PEOPLE… and the kind of things people like YOU and ME predictably spend our money on as we age.
It’s that simple.
Yet most economists seem to have missed this point!
They’ll tell you that government policies and government spending are the key factors that drive the economy.
But if this were true, if the government really drove the economy, then the government should be able to predict the economy based on its own actions.
We all know the track record on that!
Spending statistics reveal that consumers and businesses who serve them are the primary factor that drives the economy. Eighty percent of all spending in the economy is by consumers and businesses (68% is consumers), leaving the government’s share at 20%, including state and local.
By looking at consumer spending as a whole, we can see that the economy is very predictable and consumers, as a group, act much like one massive spending force.
You see, births, like everything in nature, occur in cycles. Births and immigration add new producers and consumers to the economy in generational waves. These waves inevitably cause growth as they move through the economy, especially the Baby Boom Generation that has been likened to a "pig moving through a python."
In fact, the most important cycle driving modern economies - like that of the United States and other developed nations - are the new generations that come along every 40 years or so.
Members of these generations move up a predictable family life cycle of earning, spending and productivity.
We tend to enter the work-force at age 20…
We get married at around age 26 and have kids around the ages of 28 and 29.
At roughly age 31 we buy starter homes… then trade up to larger homes between ages 37 and 41, as our families grow.
We enter our peak spending phase – the period in our lives when we tend to have the most disposable income and treat ourselves to cars, gadgets and so on – between ages 39 and 53. The actual peak is at age 46 for the average household and 53 for the most affluent.
Between ages 46 and 64 our spending habits tend to change dramatically. We see retirement not far off and make a concerted effort to save, while our spending needs decline as our kids leave the nest.
We retire at age 63 (on average) and tend to have our greatest net worth at age 64 – cash, investments and assets we’ve set aside to live on.
We may be all different, but on average as a species we are highly predictable.
But the simplest and most factual insight here is that our economy booms as new generations move up this predictable spending cycle.
Knowing this, we’re able to predict, decades in advance, what impact up-and-coming generations could have on the economy, different consumer sectors and the markets.
This is something that very few economists – even to this day – seem to understand…
But it’s something I discovered suddenly out of a decade of intensive research back in the late ‘80s…
As a “cycle guy” I always have charts covering my desk, and when I first saw a graph of the American baby boom and a chart of the S&P 500 adjusted for inflation sitting on my desk… I saw a remarkable correlation, but over different time frames.
So, I put them together and moved them over each other...
The correlation was on a 45- to 50-year lag. Someone else would have thought that a coincidence. But not me, I knew from my demographic research that the peak in spending of the average household was in that age range.
The result was stunning.
The correlation was undeniable.
The rise and fall in the number of babies being born then followed almost the exact same wave as the rise and the fall in the value of the stock market adjusted for inflation. I eventually narrowed it down to age 46 for the peak in spending.
This has allowed us to predict economic booms and busts, including stock market cycles that stretch as far as five decades into the future as the chart above shows!
It is the greatest economic indicator in history.
And it is the very same kind of insight that insurance companies have used to predict the future (when we will die) - and bet their trillions of dollars!
We have now dubbed and popularized this indicator as The Generational Spending Wave.
Again, it’s important to understand that we knew – as early as the late 1980s when we first developed the Spending Wave technique – exactly when the Boomers would reach their peak spending years and exactly when the stock market would have booms and busts.
I wrote about this in the first book I published, Our Power to Predict. If you have any doubts, here is the chart I created and gave to my readers back in 1989.
I’m sure, with one quick look, you’ll notice how eerily accurate the chart was, and how closely the market has followed the exact path I predicted to my readers.
And I’m certain you’ll realize the kind of powerful trading advantages you would have by being in possession of a chart like this.
In a moment I’ll tell you how you can get an updated version of the chart… which you’ll be able to use to play the markets going forward…
Even in major boom periods we can see significant crashes and corrections in the markets. That is not something long-term demographic trends can predict.
Regardless, it’s important you understand that in the past 60 years, there have only been two brief periods when the Dow and Baby Boom chart lines deviated and the Spending Wave indicator was wrong.
The first was after the Great Tech Wreck, but the trend line soon corrected itself.
The second time is now - as the economy experiences something it’s never had before… the artificial flooding of trillions of dollars in the name of the Fed’s Quantitative Easing program.
Our research suggests the Fed’s artificial propping-up of the markets is about to end… and as history has shown, it won’t be long before these two lines right themselves again and are back in sync.
And when that happens, get ready for the biggest, steepest downturn in your lifetime…
In 2008, the world’s richest generation – the Baby Boomers - began to withdraw from the economy... reversing a major mega-trend in spending and borrowing habits.
After a three-decade long Spending Spree (fueled by cheap credit, high wages and soaring stock market returns) they’ve now begun to embark on a multi-decade long Saving Spree… after decades of scaling up… they’re now starting to scale down… cashing in their McMansions and their SUVs for smaller homes and cars…
Even worse, they will increasingly cash out of the stock market – trading in their blue chips and growth stocks for CDs, bonds and dollars…in order to start funding their retirements!
The consequences this will have on global markets in the years to come will be catastrophic.
As these trends continue to accelerate and consumers continue to retrench, businesses will stumble and defaults will escalate… the problem will feed on itself… and everything we’ve been buying up is going to get very cheap… very quickly… over the next few months…
Property Prices Will Shed a Further 40% of their Values…as the greatest real estate bubble in history continues to deflate. (New York, Boston, Washington D.C., Miami, Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego will be hit the hardest – with McMansions and commercial real estate leading the way). Seventeen percent of mortgages are still seriously underwater. And in some States like Nevada the figure is closer to 38%. And as the economic situation worsens, these figures will only escalate again higher than before. Millions will be left owning homes that are worth less than the money they owe on them. And they will begin to default en-masse. It will be the Home-Shock of the Century!
The Dow and S&P Will Resume Their Precipitous Slides, and according to what we believe is the world’s greatest economic indicator – The Spending Wave - they will tumble as much as 70%... reaching 6,000 or lower by early 2017 – maybe even as low as 3,300 in the years to follow… and they won’t start to recover again until around 2020 at the earliest.
Banks Will Crash – Again! But even bigger and harder than they did in 2008, for clearly it will be near impossible for most of their clients to pay back the insurmountable debt loads they now owe them. And the government will try to bail out only the biggest banks – but they won’t be able to this time. It is actually the smaller community banks that will survive the next banking crisis better, not the big Bank-opolies!
The Commercial Property Market Will be Hit the Worst of All. Their debt wave has already begun, and this sector always gets hit the worst in major downturns. And in the next three and a half years, a further $1.7 trillion worth of commercial real estate loans and mortgages will come due…with bankrupt cities like Chicago and Detroit leading the way…
And the “Safe-Asset Slaughter” Will Follow.
It’s one of the most popular investments on the planet.
It’s been called the ultimate hedge against global crisis, inflation and a falling dollar.
And it’s the investment everyone’s telling you to buy right now.
I’ve dubbed this asset’s demise as the “Safe-Asset Slaughter” because in the next six to nine months the investment that many will argue is the safest in the world is going to crash.
How do I know this will happen?
Because I’ve studied over 400 years of economic bubbles, and the same distinct pattern that has led to almost every crash in history has also developed in this supposedly safe investment.
For example, look at the Dutch “Tulip Mania” Bubble of the 1630s…
The South Sea Bubble of 1718-1722…
The British Railway Mania Bubble of the 1800s…
The Stock Market Crash of 1929…
More recently, the Tech Bubble…
And the Real Estate Bubble…
You’ll notice every one of these bubbles has a very distinct, similar pattern. There’s a parabolic price movement that becomes unsustainable that’s followed by an historic crash.
Bubbles don’t correct or have soft landings as economists are naively proclaiming – they burst! No exceptions.
This investment’s meteoric rise and coming crash will be no different.
While this asset may never lose its entire value, I am certain the most loved asset in the world is about to become the most dangerous investment on the planet.
And even now, as it nears a major crash… the alarmists and hyper-inflationists are still telling you it’s a steady asset… that it’s been a store of value for centuries… and that it performs well during inflationary times and during times of danger.
But it won’t be their go-to safe-haven of choice much longer.
This toxic asset is simply gold.
It’s one of the world’s most popular investments and now it’s about to turn into one of the world’s most dangerous!
While many economists will argue that gold is not in a bubble… and insist it will soar to $2,000, $5,000 and even $10,000, my research has said otherwise.
As I wrote in my most recent book The Demographic Cliff… gold will be the last bubble to burst!
You don’t have to be an economist to see that gold’s 670% run-up since 2000 is a classic bubble pattern that’s virtually identical to the ones above… and its previous bubble that peaked in 1980.
And here’s the thing about economic bubbles that you must understand, bubbles almost always retreat to the levels at which they started, or even lower.
Gold started to fall back to reality starting in early 2013 for two primary reasons - the drop in demand from emerging markets like India, and the failure of the Fed’s escalating monetary stimulus to cause inflation, which caused leveraged hedge funds and traders to dump their positions which escalated when margin calls kicked in.
This is what happened in 2013 to 2014. Gold is likely to stage a final rally to around $1,300 to $1,380 or so in 2015, before collapsing dramatically again.
Historically, gold tends to rally in anticipation of a financial crisis, then collapses when debt deleveraging and deflation sets in. This is exactly what it did in 2008.
I would advise selling any remaining holdings of gold and silver on such a rally.
By early 2017 or so, the next stop for gold will be around $700.
Ultimately, gold will likely bottom around $250 and $400 between 2020 and 2023. $250 is an 80% drop from the $1,200 level in late 2014. And silver is even more volatile. It is likely to fall closer to $5 from its peak near $50 in April 2011 where I gave a strong long-term sell signal.
In a nutshell, if you bought any physical gold, silver or other precious metals, including coins, bullion, even scrap over the last decade, take your profits now or on any rallies ahead.
It’s not worth holding onto with the 70% to 80% drop that’s on the horizon.
Before I show you how to shield yourself from the yellow metal’s historic plunge… and how to rake in remarkable profits from investments that will soar when everything else sinks… it’s important you understand why gold’s demise is inevitable…
Like all precious metals, gold closely follows a larger primary cycle that peaks every 30 years.
It’s called the "30-Year Commodity Cycle."
It’s one of the most important – and accurate – cycles I track… a cycle that gold has historically followed very closely...
Over the last decade, it’s not just gold that soared. Nearly every major commodity has had a great boom: Silver soared 603%... heating oil 1,313%... nickel 1,273%... crude oil 1,205%... lead 870%... copper 606%... zinc 616%... tin 510%... and wheat 500%.
But the great commodity boom of the last decade has run its course.
Commodities peaked between 2008 and 2011, and the sector won’t rebound again until around 2023 or so. Gold and silver have peaked just like they did at the top of the last commodity cycle in 1980.
But from around 2023 forward I expect to see the biggest commodity boom in modern history when commodity-intensive emerging countries will drive most of the global growth. That is another thing that demographics clearly tells us decades out.
Before I go any further, I want to make something clear.
At Dent Research, we are not gold bugs, nor are we gold-haters. We are economic realists who observe economies, markets and trends.
This puts us at odds with both gold bugs and gold-haters because we don’t stake-out a position and hold onto it for dear life. We don’t do this because neither position is supported by facts.
Research based on facts, not emotion, is the secret to our firm’s longevity.
These facts are based on something the other’s don’t have: scientific knowledge of the profound role economic and demographic cycles play in understanding where the economy is going next…
Using this knowledge you can start preparing now so you don’t make the fatal mistake of piling into the wrong investments… for all the wrong reasons… like the millions of investors who will lose their shirts when they find out…
There’s one economic chart that’s causing a lot of people to make financial mistakes they will regret for a long time.
It’s the most misleading chart in economic history.
It’s the one chart every gold bug, alarmist and hyper-inflationist uses to convince the public that the government is destroying your life and debasing our currency. It’s the value of a dollar over time chart…
It actually means the opposite of what everyone tells you.
It doesn’t mean the U.S. dollar is going to zero and that your wealth is being stolen by the government’s never-ending inflationary policies.
If we followed that logic, people today should be poorer now than they were in 1900.
But we’re not! We’re eight times richer even after adjusting for inflation.
The truth is currencies trade relative to each other. If one currency falls, another must rise. They don’t have absolute values like stocks that are based on earnings.
Currencies are simply a means of trading services and goods among people and countries.
If you print more currency to artificially stimulate the economy as we have since 2008 in the United States, yes, you can devalue your currency. But in a period when almost all major nations (thirty eight at last count) are printing money and devaluing their currencies at the same time…
The Fed has printed over $3 trillion in QE and will likely print again when the next financial crisis sets in. And the ECB for the euro zone, with a population roughly the size of ours, has printed more than $3 trillion, with more starting in late 2014 just as the U.S. finally tapered.
The dollar has appreciated in value versus the euro since the crisis ignited in early 2008. It actually appreciated 27% vs. the six major global currencies in the late 2008 meltdown as the chart below shows. It was the safe haven, not gold and silver that fell 33% and 50% respectively.
Point is, when nations are printing money at the same time, currencies do not just go to zero. They appreciate or depreciate relative to each country’s money printing, trade imbalances, debt, and economic progress.
This is why the dollar is not going to zero and why it will not lose its world reserve currency status in the next decade.
In a moment, I’ll tell you how to prepare for this in regards to your investments, your business and your life…
For example, you’ll learn about the country that’s being hailed as “Little China.” As American, European and Japanese economies face one of the biggest demographic crises in history… one country is beginning to see a demographic boom surge through its economy. Each day, waves of young people enter its workforce and they’re earning more, spending more and giving more to their economy (in both taxes and productivity). As they do, they will drive well-positioned companies to greater profits. In turn, these companies will repay their investors with faster, bigger gains and fatter dividend checks.
And you’ll also learn why you should start hoarding the one investment everyone is telling you to sell, sell, sell! But first, I need to warn you about one of the most closely watched economic numbers on the planet…
I’m about to smash one of the biggest economic myths out there.
Most people believe inflation is bad for the American people and the economy, but it’s not.
I discovered this myth over 30 years ago while studying 3,000 years of Western history, from the rise of Greece and Rome through the era of Western Europe and U.S. dominance.
I observed that inflation rises during times when the population is growing, urbanization is rising, and the most powerful new technologies and innovations are advancing into the mainstream.
When I first encountered the association between inflation and innovation, I was shocked.
I always thought inflation was a bad thing.
And inflation has been bad during certain eras, like in the 1970s, when productivity was low, or at times of major wars.
Yet inflation is actually the single greatest indicator of progress and when it does not get out of control it’s good for the economy.
Let’s go back to circa 1900, when the dollar adjusted for inflation started falling, a time when our economy was still over 60% rural.
During the 20th century, life was simpler, families were less affluent, and households were largely self-sufficient.
Most people were farmers, trappers, miners, and the like. They would build their own house; hunt, fish, and farm for most of their food; cook their food and wash their clothes; and raise and even educate their own kids.
In such an economy and lifestyle, people didn’t rely much on transactions with others, beyond the need for basic tools and farming supplies, pots, guns and ammunition, flour, and a plow, things a person could buy at the general store. And people would barter for goods they couldn’t buy.
They did not need credit to buy things like homes or cars. Healthcare spending cost almost nothing and they didn’t plan for retirement.
It was a basic, commodities-based economy.
Fast forward to 2014’s highly urban, industrial, service economy…
Almost no one hunts for food, grows their own food, or builds their own house. Most people don’t even fix anything at their house. Instead, we hire plumbers, electricians, landscapers, handymen...
People have maids, nannies, and babysitters and use all types of local services, including dry cleaners, grocery stores, pharmacies, convenience stores, and gas stations... and all types of utilities and services are delivered right to our house at a very low cost, including electricity, water, sewer, cable, Internet, and even pizzas!
We go to doctors, tax accountants, lawyers, dentists, financial advisers, mortgage brokers, real estate agents, and so on.
Compared to a family from 100 years ago, the typical household today has a much higher income and outsources a massive number of tasks.
This concept is called the Specialization of Labor. It’s something Adam Smith wrote about 239 years ago in The Wealth of Nations.
Simply put, it means the more we focus on what we do best, and the more productive we become, the more we can afford to have others do things for us that we don’t do best or are not interested in doing.
That means there is exponentially more trade, dollars, and credit to facilitate. That’s why monetary expansion or inflation is natural and inevitable.
And it’s why inflation is a very positive thing for the economy and for humanity.
The correct measure is our incomes adjusted for inflation, not the number of dollars in circulation. And, such incomes adjusted for inflation have gone up 8 times since 1900.
But here’s the thing…
Many Americans are still betting on inflation at the moment.
They keep buying new houses, new cars, and every new electronic gadget imaginable – because getting credit is easier again and they think prices will be more expensive next week.
And while some things may be more expensive next week, many things are about to get a whole lot cheaper. You might want to hold off on making any major purchases now – until they’re at bargain basement price in a few months.
You see, we’re seven years into the most massive money printing scheme in history… it only takes 12 to 18 months for this money to move into the financial system… but we still don’t have inflation.
Why is that?
Because all this money printing is occurring not to fight inflation, but to prevent deflation. No politician wants the next Great Depression to happen on their watch.
Yes, America’s public debt total of $20.3 trillion has the power to trigger rampant inflation… but it won’t…and it’s not that debt figure you should be worrying about anyway.
There’s a much more dangerous type of debt buried in the U.S. economy… a debt that affects everything from the stock market, to the bond market, to the housing market… and everything in between.
And it’s DOUBLE the size of the national debt.
It’s private debt.
This is the enormous amount of debt held by U.S. banks, corporations and citizens.
$14.1 trillion in leveraged banking and financial services debt…
$13.6 trillion in corporate debt…
And $12.5 trillion in consumer debt – mortgages, car loans, credit cards…
All this combined debt leads to a staggeringly high figure that exceeds $40 trillion. That figure dwarfs the amount of the current public debt by a factor of two!
But it’s not the massive private debt that you should be worrying about per se… it’s when it starts to get paid back... that should scare the hell out of you.
Yes, when individuals pay down their debt it’s a good thing.
But when millions of individuals, banks and businesses ALL pay down their debt down simultaneously, especially when many debts default and are restructured… it’s catastrophic.
The economic term for this is deleveraging.
This is when all debt gets purged from the system - it’s a time when individuals, banks and businesses pull trillions of dollars out of the economy. We saw an acceleration of failing debts in the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. And we will see much more just ahead.
From a demographic perspective, instead of borrowing and spending more, people start to spend less. They start to pay off past debt. Instead of boosting corporate sales and profits, they subtract from them. Instead of driving up asset prices, they push them down.
And it is glaringly clear that people in America today do not have the monumental resources required to pay back this impossible debt load. So more and more of this debt will have to be written off in the years to come.
The enormous deleveraging of private debt will NOT cause inflationin the decade ahead - it will cause deflation!
The last time there was substantial deflation was during the Great Depression, from around 1930 to 1933, and the economy didn't really recover until World War II.
So what is deflation and how does it impact the economy?
Deflation, as the name suggests, is the exact opposite of inflation.
Inflation happens when there’s too much money chasing scarce goods. This particularly occurs when productivity is very low, like in the 1970s.
With deflation, the opposite occurs. There’s too little money chasing increasingly abundant goods after a very high productivity period, like the 1930s. There’s less money flowing because credit tightens up, causing money to become scarce. And because demographic trends turn down and people have less money to spend, demand for goods and services go down. And when demand goes down, so do prices.
In just a moment, I’ll tell you about the one investment that you should start hoarding as we enter this deflationary era…
But first, let me first tell you about:
We entered a new economic cycle starting in 2008.
I refer to this cycle as “The Economic Winter Season” - because it is a time to hunker down and regroup… a time to clear the decks and "shake-out" the excesses of the previous boom so that the “Economic Spring Season” can begin.
Nature has an order of things.
And as I’ve learned through my 30 years of researching economic cycles and demographic dynamics, so do markets and the economy.
Every cycle I have studied in history has four seasons, just like our weather. Think of inflation in "temperature" terms.
SPRING: The Innovation BOOM.
SUMMER: The Inflationary Bust.
AUTUMN: The Maturity BOOM.
WINTER: The Deflationary Bust.
High inflation is like the summer season of 1969 to 1982. Falling inflation is like the fall season with great harvests and a bubble boom from 1983 to 2007. Winter follows with deflation in prices to clear the decks for the next spring boom and so on…
That’s why we’re not worried about the years ahead.
In fact, we welcome them.
With each passing day America gets one step closer to regaining its glory as the world’s leading economic force. There will soon be an economic consolidation, followed by a resurrection and a period of growth again… some investors will be devastated, others will get very rich.
As I mentioned, the Winter Season is a deflationary season. And I’m convinced that the commentators and investment crowd are setting up millions of investors for the wrong economic season... they are recommending you make financial decisions right now that you may regret for the rest of your life…
They’re telling you to load portfolios up with stuff like gold… Chinese manufacturers… Russian oil and gas… Brazilian copper… wheat, corn, silver, sugar… emerging markets… foreign currencies…
But they’re dressing you for the WRONG economic season…
You need to prepare for the great economic winter ahead.
Because with any major shift in economic direction comes enormous profit opportunities.
So how can you take advantage of the myriad of opportunities as this crisis strikes?
You’ll find full details inside my new report, which you’ll get free of charge.
Before I show you how to claim your copy, it’s important you understand that this is a critical time in your life.
You have two choices, you can…
Again… this is not the time to be complacent and gamble with your financial security. You owe it to yourself, and to your family, to get a clear picture of what’s ahead.
Now in the special report How to Profit Through the Coming Safe-Asset Slaughter, I’ll introduce you to little-known ways to not just beat deflation – but get rich from it.
In order to soar through the new era ahead, you’ll need a new financial plan. In this report, I’ll introduce you to an alternative investment universe of outstanding (yet misunderstood) deflation-proof opportunities.
And one of the first investments you’ll learn about in the report is one you’re already familiar with…
It’s the investment everyone is telling you to sell right now…
But while you might be familiar with it, I doubt you’ll be familiar with the unique and little-known ways to profit from it…
The investment is a true safe-haven in this once-in-a-lifetime deflationary era.
In this unique deflationary period it can be as safe as a bank CD!
It’s one of the most liquid investments in the world.
Over $5 trillion is traded in it every day!
In the great recession and last financial meltdown this investment surged while gold and silver plunged.
And in times of trouble it is hands down – the No. 1 investment – everybody runs to… from Buffett to Soros… the Chinese to the Japanese… the Russians to the Romanians… from Wall Street to Main Street…
In fact, the last time the markets crashed in 2008, it went up 27% in just four months…it was the one of the few things that soared when almost everything dived… yet the downside risk to the smart Americans who made it was very low.
I’m talking about the U.S. dollar.
But not just any old cash…specifically the U.S. dollar versus other currencies…and the revolutionary and innovative new ways in which you can play it – ways that can significantly boost your returns when almost everything else on the planet is crashing!
And in How to Profit Through the Coming Safe-Asset Slaughter you’ll learn all about them. Plus you’ll learn about more ways to play the dollar and more ways to profit through the era ahead, including:
A special bank account where you can get interest rates at 7-times what you’ll get from America’s zombie banks…and where your money will be far safer. This bank does not engage in risky lending practices. And it is so strongly capitalized, that it didn’t even need to apply for TARP assistance during the credit crisis. In fact deposits gushed, and the bank boomed.
How to Rake in Years’ Worth of Gains – in Just Months – by Playing the Other Side of the Market. In the past it was very difficult for ordinary investors to make money off a market crash. You needed special trading accounts and at least a half a million dollars in a margin account in order to short a stock or a market, so it was usually a game reserved just for the big boys. But in the past few years, literally hundreds of inverse ETFs have launched onto the market. These revolutionary new funds allow ordinary investors to short all kinds of things from stocks to bonds…commodities to currencies…Dow industrials to Dot-coms… We’ll show you how for as little as $29 a trade you can now short (and profit from market crashes) just like the Big Boys!
The Next 3 Big Shorts. The last time the markets crashed, and most investors watched half the value of their portfolios go up in smoke, investors in these 3 simple little inverse ETFs made as much as 15%…61% and 105% in as little as 4 months flat!
It’s all in your FREE copy of How to Profit Through the Coming Safe-Asset Slaughter. You’ll get this research, at no cost to you, when you take a no-risk, trial subscription to Boom & Bust – my monthly research advisory.
Before I show you how to access your copy, let me tell you about an unusual income opportunity most people will never hear about…
There’s one region… one country… and one strategy that’s destined to outperform all the rest after the next great crash!
It’s the country the Economist recently said would outgrow every other “for the next 20-25 years.”
It also said that the way this country does business “will change the world.”
The IMF claims it will even outperform China!
In fact, according to the famous economist and Nobel laureate, James Mirrlees, this country is already twice as productive as China… a revelation that is stunning economists and analysts around the world.
We are convinced it will be the greatest growth opportunity for the next two decades (and beyond)…
For example, this country boasts:
The Biggest Demographic Dividend of Any Nation on the Planet. Its proportion of children and senior citizens to working-age adults is second to none, and will remain so for more than a generation!
A Savings Rate that is 35% of its GDP. That’s a rate that is almost incomprehensible to the West! (And with all that spare cash; its citizens are about to go on the biggest shopping binge the world has ever seen!)
More Entrepreneurs Per Capita than China!
Two of the Biggest Stock Exchanges in the World…
By the end of the decade this economy may be one of the five largest on the planet!
We’ll tell you all about this emerging giant, and the best ways to invest in it, in another FREE alert we’ll send you when you sign up for your risk-free trial to Boom & Bust.
It’s called Get Rich off the Demographic Dividend King!
In it, you’ll learn:
The No. 1 Way to Get in on the Biggest Building Boom in Human History! The government of this Demographic Dividend King will spend a half a trillion dollars on infrastructure projects in just the next few years! This is a paradigm shift. It is not merely an increase in spending. It’s a transformation. And until recently, no American could directly get in on this monumental building boom. But now they can. We’ll show you how.
Revolutionary New Ways to Invest in Literally Scores of this Demographic Dividend King’s Greatest Small Cap Companies. These smaller companies were previously unavailable to American investors. They are not widely known or discussed in the popular Western financial press. Now because of all this, they are (for the moment) severely undervalued! And finally there’s a safe and easy new way to pick up literally scores of them with one just one $29 keystroke! We’ll tell you all about it.
The Emerging Asian Corporate Giant that Could be One of the 10 Biggest Companies in the World by 2020! This company is unraveling the commercial secrets of the emerging markets of the East, conquering them head on, and leaving their competitors in a blaze of dust.
Sign up for your risk-free trial subscription to Boom & Bust today, and we’ll rush you a copy of Get Rich off the Demographic Dividend King immediately!
And this is just one of the new demographic dividend kings you’ll learn about as a new Boom & Bust subscriber.
Although demographics and spending waves are trending down sharply in the West, they’re just gathering momentum in the East.
That’s why you need to get my research in your hands right away.
When you take a trial subscription to my research advisory, you’ll receive:
12 issues of Boom & Bust. Our exclusive research advisory letter – packed with alternative Survival-of-the-Fittest Investment Strategies, including Shakeout Winners, Emerging Market Investments and many other strategies that you won’t find on the pages of The Wall Street Journal or Barron’s…This print and online newsletter will be sent right to your physical and virtual mail-box - once a month!
How to Profit Through the Coming Safe-Asset Slaughter. Inside this special report, you’ll find everything you need to know to prepare and profit when the gold bubble bursts. Plus, you’ll also learn five unique investments to make a small fortune as the dollar strengthens. These plays will soar while traditional investments get pummeled.
Get Rich off the Demographic Dividend King! If you missed out on the incredible emerging market boom in recent years, don’t worry. There’s a dynamic modern Asian market tiger that has been ignored by American and Wall Street investors. It’s an emerging market hidden gem with demographics that will cause it to enjoy a multi-decade bull market run that will be the envy of Asia. We’ve found three ways to make serious gains there in the years ahead.
At Dent Research, we have a team of economists, demographers, researchers and investment analysts working diligently to prepare our followers for what lies ahead.
Many of our readers rely on our forecasts and guidance to help them make investment decisions and plan for retirement.
They’re people like Lance Copeland from Mill Valley, California, who writes:
“Thank you for your insights and valuable information! I intend on following all the information you have provided in order to survive and prosper, during the next couple of decades, as I approach and enter retirement!”
And Ben Brown, from Dallas, Texas, who got out of the stock market in 2008 after we warned about the impending crash:
“I have been following the work of Mr. Dent for many years and I credit him with getting me out of the stock market before the 2008 crash.”
Many more who follow our research firmly believe in our use of demographic trends to predict where the markets are going next…
Like Steve Graves from Naples, Florida, who says:
“I really admire your intelligence regarding financial markets and I am in awe of your use of demographics to predict future markets. In short, it is brilliant.”
Tom Estes from Glastonbury, Connecticut, tells us:
“I have been following Harry since 1994. It’s not difficult to understand people drive economies. I owe the stability of my investments to Harry and his demographic life cycle.”
And Dave Collins, from Reston, Virginia, writes:
“I truly believe in your methods that demographic trends are
one of the most
important underlying drivers of our world economy… I believe in your research.”
It’s very rewarding to see our research being recognized so positively by so many of our loyal followers.
But our goal, first and foremost, is that our research be used to avert financial disaster and empower investors to profit from the many opportunities that arise during periods of profound economic change.
If you’d like us to be with you through this entire period – so we can point you to the best profit opportunities as events unfold – the best thing to do now is sign up for my monthly letter, which my team and I put together specifically to help regular folks like you prepare for the winter season.
So how much does my monthly newsletter cost?
And how can you get started right away?
I think you’ll be surprised and pleased at how cheap it is. Especially when you see the depth of the research the Dent Research team puts into each 12-page monthly issue. The research on the coming Safe-Asset Slaughter alone has been in the works for years.
Here’s how to get started right away…
One year of Boom & Bust costs $98 a year.
This is a great deal – especially when you consider my fee to speak at financial events is $10,000+ for an hour of my time.
But today I’d like to offer you a much better deal. You can get a year’s worth of my research for less than the cost of a tank of gas.
Why is it so affordable?
Well, with the tumultuous times I predict in the months ahead, I want to get my research in the hands of as many people as possible. To make that happen, I’ve made it available to you at the absolute lowest rate we’ve ever made it available for.
Take advantage of this special offer, and try my research for 50% OFF the regular price.
You’ll pay just $49 for an entire year of my work, including:
Research Report #1: How to Profit Through the Coming Safe-Asset Slaughter
Research Report #2: Get Rich off the Demographic Dividend King!
12 monthly issues of Boom & Bust – Dent Research’s monthly newsletter – sent to your inbox and mailbox at the beginning of every month.
PLUS: Every week – between issues – you’ll get Dent Digest. This weekly alert will give you insights and analysis of economic data that will impact your business decisions, your investments and your family.
Actually, subscribe within the next 7 days and I’ll also send you another FREE demographics-based report…
It’s called: 12 Steps to Survive and Prosper in the Winter Season…
In it you’ll discover which assets you should keep and which ones you should sell now… the important cash strategies for making sure your money is safe from the many ways banks, governments and corporations will try to usurp your money to pay their bills… and how to organize your finances so you can generate maximum cash and income, 24 hours a day.
The key to successfully surviving and profiting from the major economic and market shifts ahead is to prepare before they come.
And in 12 Steps to Survive and Prosper in the Winter Season you’ll learn exactly what you should be doing now.
And it’s yours FREE just for signing up for your risk-free trial subscription to Boom & Bust – within the next seven days!
Best of all, you can look at our research, commentary and recommendations at absolutely no risk or obligation.
This is all 100% guaranteed.
You have a full year to decide if it's right for you.
If at any time during your trial subscription period you decide our work isn’t right for you – simply let us know and we’ll see to it that you receive a full, prompt and courteous refund of the unused amount on your subscription.
There’s nothing you have to give back…
No conditions you need to meet.
You’re either thrilled with our work or you are eligible for a refund– and keep everything you’ve received.
I sincerely hope you’ll consider this offer.
Thank you so much for listening to this important presentation.
I hope you’ll find that signing up for my Boom & Bust letter will be one of the best financial moves you’ll ever make.
Because, the “Safe Asset Slaughter” will strike with full force in the next few months, and while everyone else will be wondering what hit them, you’ll have seen it coming in plenty of time… and you’ll have a clear, profitable plan in place.
To get started, simply call 1-800-507-9382 and mention Promocode EBNBR237 or click on the “Subscribe Now” link below.
Harry Dent Jr.