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Rising Growth Risks Weigh Spark Deleveraging

by Peter A. Grant

Sep 26, AM
(from USAGOLD.com) --

Gold has extended the recent correction, breaking support at 1755.70/1752.89, amid heightened global growth concerns and rising civil unrest in Europe. It would seem that riots in multiple eurozone periphery nations are driving home the reality that recent ECB actions haven't really resolved anything.

The euro has pushed more convincingly back below 1.2900 and the corresponding dollar strength — as investors seek the perceived safety of the greenback — is weighing on the yellow metal. However, gold has slumped against the euro and the other major currencies as well, suggesting that rising growth risks and the resulting pressure on equities has sparked deleveraging pressures.

On top of that, I think there is a growing realization that the ECB, Fed, BoJ et al are pushing on a rope in their efforts to create inflation. In other words, the most recently announced measures by the BoJ, Fed and ECB may simply not be enough. In fact, BoJ board member Takehiro Sato said today, "We won't hesitate in taking additional monetary easing steps if we feel that risks have heightened enough and that the economy may undershoot our forecasts even after this month's monetary easing." This may be prompting weak longs that entered the gold trade recently, based on expectations of central bank inspired inflation, to flee.

We've talked before about the deflationary wave the central banks are facing. Perhaps this forces the central banks to fully utilize the open-ended nature of their most recent measures in their effort to generate inflation. Yet even if those efforts too are ultimately overwhelmed, take comfort in the fact that gold has performed admirably in periods of deflation as well.

Peter Grant is USAGOLD's resident economist and a well-known analyst globally in the forex and precious metals markets.

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Opinions expressed in commentary on the USAGOLD.com website do not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product, nor should they be viewed in any way as investment advice or advice to buy, sell or hold. USAGOLD, Inc. recommends the purchase of physical precious metals for asset preservation purposes, not speculation. Utilization of these opinions for speculative purposes is neither suggested nor advised. Commentary is strictly for educational purposes, and as such USAGOLD does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information found here.

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Rising Growth Risks Weigh Spark Deleveraging