11-Sep (USAGOLD) — Gold got a boost via a threat from Moody’s that the US faced a downgrade “if budget talks do not produce downward trend in debt/GDP ratio.” This sent the dollar index to a new 18-week low, boosting the yellow metal in the process.
House speaker John Boehner said this morning that he’s “not confident at all” about avoiding the so-called “fiscal cliff.” With the national debt now in excess of $16 trillion, and the debt ceiling just a hair’s breadth away at $16.394 trillion, look for the political gamesmanship to commence with abandon in advance of the November elections.
The Fed’s two-day FOMC meeting commences tomorrow, with the policy statement coming on Thursday. Indications from Jackson Hole and data in the proceeding weeks suggests additional Fed measures are in the offing. At least a portion of this is already be priced into the market, but if the Fed ends up being as aggressive as the ECB, gold may well continue the current uptrend into the upper reaches of the year-long range.
• US trade deficit widened to -$42.0 bln in Jul, inside expectations of -$44.5 bln, vs upward revised -$41.9 bln in Jun.
• US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index rose to 51.8 in Sep, vs 45.6 in Jul.
• Japan MoF Business Outlook Survey rose to 2.5 in Sep, vs negative revised -5.7 in Jul.