Morning Snapshot


11-Sep (USAGOLD) — Gold got a boost via a threat from Moody’s that the US faced a downgrade “if budget talks do not produce downward trend in debt/GDP ratio.” This sent the dollar index to a new 18-week low, boosting the yellow metal in the process.

House speaker John Boehner said this morning that he’s “not confident at all” about avoiding the so-called “fiscal cliff.” With the national debt now in excess of $16 trillion, and the debt ceiling just a hair’s breadth away at $16.394 trillion, look for the political gamesmanship to commence with abandon in advance of the November elections.

The Fed’s two-day FOMC meeting commences tomorrow, with the policy statement coming on Thursday. Indications from Jackson Hole and data in the proceeding weeks suggests additional Fed measures are in the offing. At least a portion of this is already be priced into the market, but if the Fed ends up being as aggressive as the ECB, gold may well continue the current uptrend into the upper reaches of the year-long range.

• US trade deficit widened to -$42.0 bln in Jul, inside expectations of -$44.5 bln, vs upward revised -$41.9 bln in Jun.
• US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index rose to 51.8 in Sep, vs 45.6 in Jul.
• Japan MoF Business Outlook Survey rose to 2.5 in Sep, vs negative revised -5.7 in Jul.

Posted in Daily Market Report, Gold News, Gold Views |

Moody’s Cautions of Possible U.S. Downgrade in 2013

11-Sep (Wall Street Journal) — Moody’s Investors Service, in the latest reminder of the tense fiscal negotiations looming for Congress and the White House, said it could downgrade the U.S. government’s credit rating next year if steps aren’t taken to tackle the rising debt.

Specifically, it said if Congress repeals looming spending cuts and tax increases that begin next year and doesn’t replace these measures with large-scale deficit-reduction measures, the government would lose its top-notch rating.

The warning comes as Washington has become consumed with the November elections and talks of a bipartisan deal to reduce the deficit have mostly stalled. But after the elections on Nov. 6, policy makers have to deal with numerous fiscal issues before Jan. 1, 2013, when the large spending cuts are set to begin and tax rates will rise for more than 100 million Americans.

[source]

Posted in Economy |

Gold futures edge higher ahead of Fed

11-Sep (MarketWatch) — Gold futures gained Monday, moving modestly higher as traders await a possible bond-buying announcement from the Federal Reserve later in the week.

Gold for December delivery rose $6.80, or 0.4%, to trade at $1,738.60 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

[source]

Posted in Gold News |

Operation Twist: New York Fed purchases $1.804 billion in Treasury coupons

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House Speaker Boehner says not confident about fiscal cliff

11-Sep (Reuters) — U.S. House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner on Tuesday said he is “not confident” that a divided Washington can avoid a looming “fiscal cliff” that could push the country into a recession.

I’m not confident at all” about avoiding the so-called “fiscal cliff,” Boehner said. The fiscal cliff refers to the series of unresolved fiscal issues including the Bush-era tax cuts that expire at the end of the year and across-the-board spending cuts that are set to begin in January.

[source]

PG View: This comment comes on the heels of a warning from Moody’s that the US faces a downgrade “budget talks do not produce downward trend in debt/GDP ratio.”

Posted in Economy |

With no rebound in sight, there’s never been a slump like this

08-Sep (The Globe & Mail) — A trillion dollars has gone missing in the United States.

That enormous sum is the difference between the Bank of Canada’s current estimate of how big U.S. gross domestic product will be in 2015 and what the central bank projected four years ago, before the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. brought the world economy to its knees in September, 2008.

“Even in this room, that’s a big number,” Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney quipped in front of a high-powered audience in Calgary on Friday.

The U.S. recession technically ended in June, 2009. But the prosperity of the previous decade and a half has not returned, as anemic growth fails to achieve what economists call “escape velocity.” After economies plunge into a downturn, they generally snap back relatively quickly. That’s what happened after the tech bust in 2000 and the shock from the Sept. 11 attacks in 2001.

But this time has been different. The reason: debt. Americans amassed so much of it before the crisis that it’s taking years to pay it off.

[source]

Posted in Economy |

Gold better at 1731.00 (+2.86). Silver 33.53 (+0.09). Dollar soft. Euro firm. Stocks called higher. Treasurys steady to lower.

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Gold trades lower on profit-taking, Fed worries

10-Sep (MarketWatch) — Gold futures traded lower Monday, giving back some of the sharp gains of last week as investors consolidated holdings and waited to hear from the U.S Federal Reserve later in the week.

Gold for December delivery declined $7.40, or 0.4%, to $1,733.30 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

[source]

Posted in Gold News |

Morning Snapshot


10-Sep (USAGOLD) — Gold is mildly corrective, consolidating last week’s solid gains in advance of this week’s FOMC meeting and a ruling on the ESM by Germany’s Constitutional Court. The market euphoria associated with the ECB’s announcement that it planned to do unlimited bond buys has been tempered by a new court challenge that could forestall both the aforementioned court ruling and the bond purchases.

Additionally, Greece’s coalition government failed to reach an agreement on additional spending cuts, which likely means that the troika is not going to approve release of the next tranche of bailout funds. Democratic Left leader Fotis Kouvelis said, “Greeks can’t take anymore.” And yet, more cuts — more austerity — is exactly what is being demanded by Greece’s creditors. Negotiations are apparently ongoing.

According to a Der Spiegel article, German Chancellor Merkel “now wants to stop Athens from leaving the euro zone at all costs — even if it means massaging the figures in the upcoming troika report.” This is a purely political shift on her part as a Greek exit from the EMU in advance of next year’s national elections could prove devastating to her. Merkel has been buying time by saying she’s waiting for the troika report on Greece. That may now be delayed until November; and while everyone in Europe has been generally successful in kicking the can down the road time and time again, delaying a decision on Greece into next year may prove problematic.

Bottom line here: Just because the ECB declared it is prepared to buy periphery bonds in unlimited quantities, the European debt crisis remains a long-way from resolution.

Posted in Daily Market Report, Gold News, Gold Views, all posts |

Operation Twist: New York Fed purchases $1.349 billion in TIPS.

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Merkel Changes Her Mind on Grexit Risks

10-Sep (Der Spiegel) — Angela Merkel has made a surprising U-turn in her policy on Greece. The German chancellor now wants to stop Athens from leaving the euro zone at all costs — even if it means massaging the figures in the upcoming troika report. For the German leader, it is essential to avoid the consequences of a Grexit before national elections next year.

[source]

Posted in European Debt Crisis |

Euro Bailout Fund Faces New Court Challenge in Germany

10-Sep (Der Spiegel) — The German government is convinced that the Constitutional Court will this week clear the path for the permanent euro bailout fund to go into operation. But now it faces a new challenge: A major German critic of the government’s euro rescue policies is suing over the European Central Bank’s bond-buying plans.

…The CSU politician submitted a new petition over the weekend to the Karlsruhe court to delay its ruling on the ESM. Gauweiler has based the petition on the decision announced on Thursday by the European Central Bank (ECB) that it would purchase unlimited quantities of sovereign bonds from crisis-plagued euro-zone member states. Gauweiler argues in his petition that the ECB’s step has “created an entirely new situation” and that “almost all of the discussion that has taken place so far is now invalid”. Through the bond-buying program, he argues, the ECB itself will become an “unlimited ultra- and hyper- bailout fund” — one that national parliaments will have no control over.

Now Gauweiler is demanding that the court reject the ratification of the ESM treaty until the ECB revises its decision. He is arguing that if the court is not able to decide on the emergency petition that it should delay the ruling on the ESM that has been scheduled for Wednesday.

[source]

Posted in European Debt Crisis |

Gold easier at 1728.80 (-6.60). Silver #Silver 33.52 (-0.14). Dollar bounces. Euro slips. Stocks called lower. Treasurys mixed.

Posted in all posts |

New page

For all of the silver bulls out there, a new page:

Today’s silver coin prices

Featuring coin and bullion prices based on the closing silver price

AND

Live prices as well!!

This page complements our popular Today’s Gold Coin Prices page.

A useful and practical addition to the USAGOLD website, we think you will appreciate.

Posted in all posts |

Pimco’s Gross: I’m Leaning Toward Gold Over Bonds

Sep 7 (Bloomberg) — Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., talks about European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s bond-buying proposal, the U.S. economy and investment strategy. He speaks with Stephanie Ruhle, Adam Johnson and Alix Steel on Bloomberg Television’s “Lunch money.

[Video]

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Gold rushes to 6-month high U.S. jobs data

Sep 7 (Reuters) — Gold raced to a six-month high on Friday, heading toward $1,730 per ounce, after U.S. jobs growth slowed more than expected in August, possibly paving the way for the Federal Reserve to announce additional stimulus for its sluggish economy.

Gold bulls went on the offensive after the numbers showed nonfarm payrolls increased only 96,000 last month, below expectations for a 125,000 rise.

“Gold is going through the roof because this negative data makes QE3 more likely now,” said Daniel Briesemann, commodities analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.

“There is a chance that Bernanke will announce QE3 already next week, that means pumping more money into the market so gold becomes a more attractive investment due to inflation fears.”

The market had seen giddy price action on Thursday, rushing to its loftiest since early March after the European Central Bank unveiled a new and potentially unlimited bond purchase plan to lower borrowing costs of debt-laden nations, in the latest effort to fight the euro zone debt crisis.

Central bank cash printing raises the inflation outlook and adds to gold’s attraction as a hedge against rising prices.

[Source]

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Economy stuck in low gear; time for Fed to act

Sep 7 (MarketWatch) — And even though the unemployment rate fell to 8.1% from 8.3%, the decline was due to a smaller labor force, not more jobs. Twelve million Americans are looking for work, and another 7 million want a job but aren’t even looking.

Other details of the report were equally discouraging: Weekly earnings have fallen two months in a row and have risen just 2% in the past year, only slightly faster than prices have risen.

That’s a tragedy for the American people, and it’s frustrating for the leaders in Washington who are supposed to help the economy move at full stream.

No one can be satisfied with this economy.

The decision by the Fed to buy more government bonds from investors (also known as QE3) could come as early as next week. Last month, the Fed policy committee said that it would act unless it saw significant and sustainable acceleration in job growth.

[Source]

JK Comment: Gold’s $30+ rally today is indicating the same sentiment….

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Why is Putin stockpiling gold?

7 Sep (MarketWatch) by Brett Arends

According to the World Gold Council, Russia has more than doubled its gold reserves in the past five years. Putin has taken advantage of the financial crisis to build the world’s fifth-biggest gold pile in a handful of years, and is buying about half a billion dollars’ worth every month.

But there’s another way to look at gold: As the most liquid reserve in times of turmoil, or worse.

On the other hand, we may be about to enter a much more turbulent and dangerous era of power politics and international competition.

Not long ago, world gold reserves were mainly in the hands of the U.S. and the Europeans, which accumulated their holdings during their centuries at the top. The U.S. has 75% of its currency reserves in gold. Many other first world powers have comparable proportions.

But that’s beginning to change. According to the World Gold Council, China, Saudi Arabia and Russia are now in the top five. Western European countries have been selling gold. If the current financial crisis gets any worse, they may yet sell more.

Emerging markets have been buying. In most cases, gold remains a very small percentage of their total reserves. China, despite its recent buying, holds less than 2% of its currency reserves in gold.

But you have to wonder how long emerging countries will want to hold their reserves in any currency that is controlled by someone else. Vladimir Putin clearly doesn’t want to. Gold now accounts for 9% of Russia’s reserves, and that figure is rising.

[Source]

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Gold Rises to Highest Since March as Euro Advances on ECB

6-Sep (Bloomberg) — Gold futures rose to the highest since March as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said policy makers agreed to an unlimited bond-purchase program to help stabilize the region, boosting demand for the metal as a store of value.

Draghi said the ECB will have a “fully effective backstop to avoid destructive scenarios with potentially severe challenges for price stability in the euro area.” U.S. jobless claims declined last week and companies added more workers than forecast in August, reports showed today before monthly payrolls data tomorrow. In August, gold jumped 4.5 percent, the most since January, on speculation that the Federal Reserve and the ECB will increase steps to bolster their economies.

“Expectations of inflation rising after Draghi’s statements are supporting gold,” Adam Klopfenstein, a market strategist at Archer Financial Services Inc. in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “Tomorrow’s jobs data will be crucial as that will be one of the leading indicators about the health of the economy.”

Gold futures for December delivery gained 0.6 percent to $1,703.50 an ounce at 9:59 a.m. on the Comex in New York, after earlier jumping to $1,716.90, the highest for a most-active contract since March 12.

Gold will be at $1,840 by the end of 2012, Jeffrey Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said in a Bloomberg Television interview today.

[Source]

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Gold tops $1,700 on ECB bond-buy plan

Sep 6 (MarketWatch) — Gold futures added to gains Thursday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi detailed a plan to buy bonds from struggling euro-zone countries.

Gold futures for December delivery GCZ2 +0.80% rose $10.50, or 0.6%, to trade at $1,704.50 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

[Source]

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Draghi unveils ECB bond-buying plan

6-Sep (MarketWatch) — European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on Thursday said the central bank is prepared to buy government bonds in unlimited quantities in order to eliminate harmful distortions in financial markets fueled by fears of a euro breakup, but reiterated that participating countries must promise to abide by strict conditions.

The new Outright Market Transactions, or OMT, program “will enable us to address severe distortions in government bond markets which originate from, in particular, unfounded fears on the part of investors of the reversibility of the euro,” Draghi told reporters at his monthly news conference.

The OMT will allow the central bank to buy government bonds with maturities of one to three years in unlimited quantities, though purchases will be “sterilized,” or offset by draining an equivalent amount of money from the financial system, in order to avoid a potential rise in the money supply.

“The ECB’s insistence to sterilize the bond purchases means the ECB can only buy bonds as long as demand for euro T-bills remains,” Zangana said in emailed comments. That’s because the ECB absorbs the extra liquidity put into the financial system by its bond purchases by selling T-bills.

“If demand dries up, as it did [under the ECB’s previous bond-buying program] at the start of the year, then the bond purchases would be halted,” Zangana said. “In that sense, Draghi may be overreaching when he said the ECB would ‘backstop’ the monetary union.”

Draghi also stressed that the ECB would withdraw bond-buying support for countries that fail to abide by terms of the conditions attached to help.

Unlike the previous bond-buying program, known as the Securities Market Program, the ECB will publish a detailed monthly breakdown of the duration of bonds purchased and what country they come from. Under the SMP, the ECB only published the total amount of bonds purchased.

[Source]

JK Comment: Here we go…….

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US$2000 gold by year end, Capital Economics maintains

Financial Post (Sept 5) — The price of gold is expected to increase over the next four months as investors demand a safe haven amid concerns over a euro-zone break up according to a new report from Capital Economics.

“We would continue to emphasize that our forecast of a rise in price to $2,000 per. oz by year-end does not rely on the launch of a third round of qualitative easing (QE3). Rather it is mainly based on an exception that a break up of the euro-zone will boost the demand,” said economist John Higgins.

[Source]

JK Comment: So if gold’s rise to $2000 doesn’t depend on QE3, what will happen to the price if Bernanke does press forward? The specter of combined European and US easing is certainly creating a bigger, perhaps even a ‘perfect’, storm for gold. Maybe it is the fact that gold doesn’t ‘need’ QE3 to get to $2000, yet QE3 seems like such a strong possibility, that is prompting a spike in $2000 price predictions/expectations:

Here’s a few…….
Merrill Lynch

Drakon Capital’s Guy Adami

Economist Shayne Heffernan

Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at MKS Finance

Posted in all posts |

All that’s gold, glitters

Marketwatch (Sept 4) — Wake up gold bugs, your time has arrived. Dust off your prospecting equipment because it is time to look for some investments.

You’ve survived naysayers. You’ve survived a sizeable rally in the U.S. dollar. And you even survived what should have been the final nail in the coffin when the market made a significant technical breakdown in May.

Kudos.

And late last month, things started to get exciting as gold moved above the top of the giant triangle pattern that contained it since September of last year. At the time of this writing in late August, it was not yet a significant breakout, but it was a breakout nonetheless.

[Source]

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Euro gains after latest ECB bond-buy talk

Marketwatch (Sept 5) — The euro erased a loss versus the U.S. dollar Wednesday after a news report said European Central Bank policy makers would consider buying distressed government bonds in unlimited quantities, but would sterilize the purchases in order to ease worries about boosting money supply.

Under a blueprint to be considered by the ECB at its Governing Council meeting on Thursday, the bank wouldn’t set a public cap on yields, but would pledge to buy unlimited amounts of government debt that would be sterilized, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday.

Sterilization refers to the practice of draining an equivalent amount of reserves from the financial system in order to prevent growth in the money supply.

[Source]

JK Comment: Just as the Federal Reserve is considering implementing its own version of ‘unlimited QE’, the ECB is now adding the ‘unlimited’ tag to its bond buying plans.

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The Daily Market Report – Silver Perks Up

Silver ended the month of August up an impressive 13.2%, and follow-on gains early in September has put the white metal above $32 for the first time since April. Gold by comparison — the far larger, more liquid of the precious metals — posted a monthly gain of 4.8% for August.

The two markets tend to be pretty tightly correlated, but I often look to the gold/silver ratio for technical clues. Given the aforementioned August price action, the fact that the ratio has retreated from the upper 50s to the low 50s in recent weeks should come as no surprise. It now takes fewer ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold. I view this as a generally positive harbinger for the precious metals complex as silver tends to lead when inflation expectations are on the rise. While both gold and silver have performed admirably in the recent deflationary environment, the precious metals really perk up when inflation expectations do.

The national average gasoline price hit a new Labor Day record of $3.83 a gallon on Monday, besting the old record of $3.69 a gallon from 2008. Meanwhile food commodity prices continue to soar as a result of the drought affecting much of the United States. On top of that, it appears that both the Fed and the ECB are on the verge of even more accommodative monetary policy, which is further stoking inflation expectations.

Please note: I am on vacation for the remainder of this week, and will return with new morning reports next Monday.

Posted in all posts |

Draghi Told Lawmakers ECB Must Buy Bonds for Euro’s Survival

04-Sep (Bloomberg) — European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the bank’s primary mandate compels it to intervene in bond markets to wrest back control of interest rates and ensure the euro’s survival.

Mounting his strongest case yet for ECB bond purchases, Draghi told lawmakers in a closed-door session at the European Parliament in Brussels yesterday that the bank has lost control of borrowing costs in the 17-nation monetary union. Bloomberg News obtained a recording of his comments, some of which were published by Italian news agency AGI yesterday.

“We cannot pursue price stability now with a fragmented euro area because changes in interest rates affect only one country, or two countries at most,” Draghi said. “They have no importance whatsoever in the rest of the euro area.”

[source]

Posted in Economy |

Operation Twist (part 2): New York Fed purchases $4.643 billion in Treasury coupons.

Posted in all posts |

The Daily Market Report

Monetary Policy Expectations and Technicals Underpin Gold


04-Sep (USAGOLD) — Gold continues to edge higher, establishing new 25-week highs and threatening to regain the $1700 level for the first time since March. A weak US manufacturing ISM print for August in conjunction with a July construction spending miss have further amplified Fed easing expectations. Those expectations are already running quite high in the wake of last Friday’s speech by Fed chairman Bernanke at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

While some doubts remain as to what new measures might be employed by the ECB when they announce policy on Thursday, the general consensus seems to favor a resumption of their bond buying program. The Germans remain opposed to this approach, as the ECB is not suppose to be in the business of financing governments. The German Constitutional Court is slated to weigh in on this matter next week.

The technical picture as outlined in my commentary on 09-Aug and updated on 29-Aug remains broadly constructive with initial measuring objectives nearly attained, but the potential suggested by the larger symmetrical triangle shows possible further upside.

Posted in Daily Market Report, Gold News, Gold Views, all posts |

Operation Twist: New York Fed purchases $1.810 billion in Treasury coupons.

Posted in all posts |

Fears Rising, Spaniards Pull Out Their Cash and Get Out of Spain

03-Sep (New York Times) — It is, Julio Vildosola concedes, a very big bet.

After working six years as a senior executive for a multinational payroll-processing company in Barcelona, Spain, Mr. Vildosola is cutting his professional and financial ties with his troubled homeland. He has moved his family to a village near Cambridge, England, where he will take the reins at a small software company, and he has transferred his savings from Spanish banks to British banks.

“The macro situation in Spain is getting worse and worse,” Mr. Vildosola, 38, said last week just hours before boarding a plane to London with his wife and two small children. “There is just too much risk. Spain is going to be next after Greece, and I just don’t want to end up holding devalued pesetas.”

…“It’s sad,” he said. “But I just don’t think there is a future for me in Spain right now.”

[source]

Posted in European Debt Crisis |