August 23 (CNBC) — The euro zone could collapse if its member countries do not work together to solve its debt crisis, but China is pleased to see that Germany and France are cooperating to avert that risk, a Chinese vice foreign minister said in an interview.

China’s leaders, including Premier Wen Jiabao, have repeatedly expressed confidence in the euro zone, though officials and media commentary have also reflected anxieties about Europe’s economic prospects.

On Monday, China’s leading official newspaper likened the euro zone debt crisis to the Black Death, days before French President Nicolas Sarkozy is due to meet Chinese President Hu Jintao in Beijing.

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August 23 (Der Spiegel) — Chancellor Angela Merkel will meet conservative parliamentarians on Tuesday evening to try to allay their concerns about her management of the euro crisis. Many are unhappy about the EU deal to increase the scope of the bailout fund — and are dissatisfied with Merkel’s leadership style.

Many in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative Christian Democratic Union party are unhappy about Germany’s growing commitment to euro bailout packages and fear that the nation is being locked into a “transfer union” in which German taxpayers will end up bankrolling high-debt nations that got themselves into trouble through their own profligacy.

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Resentment in the North: Rich EU Members Lose Patience with the ‘Olive Zone’

August 23 (Der Spiegel) — The rich countries of the northern euro zone are bearing the brunt of bailing out their debt-stricken fellow members. Resentment is growing among their populations, helping euroskeptic right-wing populists to win support. But there is little awareness of how much the European Union has done for their own countries.

Officially, of course, the one-euro coin is worth the same everywhere. But given the current state of the euro zone, you could be forgiven for thinking that the coin with the Greek owl or Spanish king on its reverse is worth less than one bearing, say, a German eagle or the silhouette of the Netherlands’ Queen Beatrix.

An invisible crack now divides the euro zone. With their triple-A rating from the American credit rating agencies, six of the euro zone’s 17 member states are considered sound borrowers. And the more government finances in Greece, Portugal, Italy, Spain and Ireland are thrown out of kilter, the more the countries with the best credit ratings are expected to vouch for the euro. They include, in addition to Germany and France, Finland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Austria.

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August 23 (BusinessInsider) — The San Francisco Fed has come out with a research paper connecting the dots between the retiring baby boomers and stock prices. The thinking is that the boomers will divest themselves of stocks as they retire and eat into their savings.

…These conclusions are just horrendous! The suggestion is that there is a 15-year bear market in front of us. Multiples will fall by 50%!!

…“We do see it as something of a headwind as the economy is attempting to recover.”

This is worst kind of “Fed Speak” in my opinion. These deep thinkers have it completely wrong. They think that the key to having a stronger economy is higher stock prices. So they spend all of their efforts dreaming up ways to keep the S&P ramping up. I think it is the exact other way around. If the economy were to be growing, it is reasonable to assume that stock price might rise. It is completely false to assume that attempts to jigger stocks higher will lead to a stronger economy.

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August 23 (Reuters) — German Labour Minister Ursula von der Leyen — who is also a deputy president of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) — said on Tuesday that future euro zone bailout payments should be covered by collateral such as gold reserves or stakes in state industry.

Von der Leyen, wading into the debate about Finland seeking collateral from Greece for the Finnish contribution to existing bailout payments, told German public broadcaster ARD that future bailouts should only be made against collateral, according to a news release from ARD.

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PG View: There have been no collateral requirements in the past because there was no real expectations that the bailouts would be repaid. Now that we’re into the second round of bailout, that seems to be an issue for some countries.

August 23 (Financial Times) — Eurozone economic growth remains close to a standstill, with the region’s manufacturing sector contracting this month for the first time in two years, according to a closely-watched survey.

Private sector activity barely increased in August as German prospects weakened further, purchasing managers’ indices for the 17-country region indicated on Tuesday, adding to the difficulties facing the region’s leaders as they seek to restore confidence in Europe’s monetary union.

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August 23 (Bloomberg) — Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said fissures in Europe’s common currency may lead to slowing in the U.S. economy.

“The euro is breaking down and the process of its breaking down is creating very considerable difficulties in the European banking system,” Greenspan said today in Washington.

…Greenspan also said that he did not think gold, which reached a record above $1,900 an ounce this week, was in a bubble.

“Gold, unlike all other commodities, is a currency,” he said. “And the major thrust in the demand for gold is not for jewelry. It’s not for anything other than an escape from what is perceived to be a fiat money system, paper money, that seems to be deteriorating.”

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August 23 (Reuters) — Finland’s prime minister stood by Finland’s demand for collateral for its loans to Greece despite worries that demands for similar treatment from other euro zone countries risked delaying bailout aid to Athens.

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August 23 (USAGOLD) — Gold has turned intraday corrective on some mildly encouraging economic data after trading above $1900 late on Monday and into today’s overseas trading. The new all-time high stands at 1911.69. Bouts of profit taking pressures are likely ahead of the $2000 psychological barrier, but the underlying need for a safe-haven amid rising growth concerns and worries over the health of the banking sector are likely to perpetuate the dominant uptrend in the yellow metal.

Banks within the EU continue to suffer at the hands of their sovereign debt exposures, while troubles in the US seem to be centered on Bank of America. It is widely expected that BofA will need to raise capital to meet the new Basel III requirements. BAC shares have plunged to levels not seen since the worst days of the financial crisis in 2009 and have threatened to move below $6 this morning.

• US new home sales -0.7% to 298k in Jul, below market expectations of 315k, vs downward revised 300k Jun (previously 312k).
• Canada retail sales +0.7% in Jun, just above expectations; ex-autos -0.1%.
• Swiss trade balance climbs to CHF2825M in Jul, vs negative revised CHF1773M in Jun.
• France Reuters PMI – manufacturing (advance) slips to 49.3 in Aug, below expectations, vs 50.5 in Jul; services rises to 56.1.
• Germany Reuters PMI – manufacturing (advance) unch at 52.0 in Aug, just above expectations; services falls to 50.4.
• Eurozone Reuters PMI – composite (advance) 51.1 in Aug, just above expectations, vs 51.1 in Jul; manufacturing slips to 49.7; services rises to 51.5.
• Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment tumbled to -37.6 in Aug, well below market expectations, vs -15.1 in Jul; current situation falls to 53.5.
• Eurozone Consumer Confidence – Flash fell to -12.0 in Aug, in-line with expectations, vs -11.2 in Jul.
• UK CBI Industrial Trends Monthly – Total Orders +1 in Aug, above market expectations, vs -10 in Jul; export orders unch.
• China Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.8 in Aug, vs upward revised 49.3 in Jul.

August 22 (International Business Times) — Gold ripped past $1,900 Monday to a new record, the upshot of enough fears about global wealth-destroying developments to erase any doubts that the world’s oldest safe-haven investment remains the world’s No. 1 safe-haven investment.

Gold for December delivery, the most active contract traded on the CME Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, hit $1,900.70 per ounce in electronic trading, up from Friday’s closing price of $1,852.20.

Gold is now up 33 percent this year and has been in a bull market run for more than a decade.

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PG View: Spot gold has extended to a new all-time high in late trading at 1911.50.

August 22 (Reuters) — Consumer confidence has fallen further after weeks of intensified economic concerns and broad stock market declines, and Conference Board data due later this month could be even weaker than current projections suggest, Consumer Edge Research said on Monday.

Readings from high, middle and low-income consumers all deteriorated sharply, due mainly to dramatic declines in outlook, the independent equity research firm said.

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August 22 (Reuters) — Moves by the Swiss National Bank to curb strength of the Swiss franc will fuel investors’ insatiable demand for gold, adding to its relentless rise to new record highs as confidence in the franc as a safe store of value dwindles.

Analysts say this could help gold vault $2,000 an ounce within the coming weeks, with the potential for very large spikes if risk aversion on financial markets gains momentum.

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August 21 (Financial Times) — During a closed-door summit in June, José Manuel Barroso, European Commission president, made a 14-slide presentation to Europe’s presidents and prime ministers on the state of the continent’s economy – but he dwelt on one slide in particular.

The slide had two bar charts, one showing the level of eurozone debt measured against its economic output (about 88 per cent for 2011) and the other showed the US’s, at nearly 100 per cent of its gross domestic product.

Mr Barroso’s message was clear: despite Europe’s debt crisis, taken together, eurozone countries were in better fiscal health than the US, which continues to borrow at exceedingly low rates.

…Fiscal union may indeed be the debt crisis’s ultimate solution. But it is hard to find the appetite for getting there.

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Gold Nears $1900

August 22 (USAGOLD) — Gold extended to a new record high near $1900 in overseas trading before coming under modest corrective pressures. The all-time high currently stands at 1894.25, just $105.75 away from the $2,000 level. Rising concerns over the implications of last week’s request by Venezuela seeking the repatriation of their gold reserves held overseas continue to underpin the yellow metal, amid escalating growth risks and persistent sovereign debt issues in Europe.

The latest revelations about massive, yet secret, Fed liquidity measures totaling $1.2 trillion between August 2007 and April 2010 have added an additional level of concern to the market. These facilities dwarfed the much maligned $700 bln TARP program. Together, we’re talking about nearly $2 trillion and the best we could muster is an economy muddling along at stall-speed. With headwinds to growth on the rise in recent weeks, investors are rightfully concerned about future fiscal and monetary responses.

The President has said he will unveil his plan for job creation in September. Will these new jobs be the result of additional fiscal stimulus? Is there any room at all for compromise on such matters with the 2012 Presidential campaign already underway? The recent debt ceiling debate would suggest not; so perhaps the plan will be nothing more than an opportunity to color Republicans as obstructionists to job creation.

Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak at the KC Fed symposium in Jackson Hole on Friday. Market watchers will be looking for any hints that additional Fed accommodations are in the cards. Odds seem to favor a reiteration of the latest FOMC statement, which noted the rise in growth risks and stated that the Fed stands ready to employ a host of policy options to fulfill its dual mandate of full employment and stable prices. In other words, Bernanke is unlikely to be forthcoming with a clear signal about QE3 this week, but he will probably acknowledge that QE3 — or some variation — is a card he is prepared to play, should it become necessary.

If the government and the Fed do indeed look to once again try and fill the economy’s sails with additional liquidity pumps, gold will likely continue to rise as the dollar comes under renewed pressure once again. The dollar index has been consolidating in a narrowing range since it bottomed back in May, ahead of the termination of QE2. Breakouts from such patterns tend to come in the direction of the dominant trend, which remains unquestionably bearish.

August 22 (CNBC) — Tangent Capital Partners’ James Rickards believes gold is heading toward $7,000 based on simple currency ratios. He believes that price level will be achieved in an orderly managed way by returning to a gold standard; or it will get there as a result of a chaotic collapse of fiat currencies.

August 22 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. Federal Reserve mounted an unprecedented campaign to head off a depression by providing as much as $1.2 trillion in public money to banks and other companies from August 2007 through April 2010, exceeding the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program.

…The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEHMQ) in September 2008 triggered losses at the world’s oldest money- market mutual fund, the Reserve Primary Fund, threatening to touch off an industrywide rout as investors began withdrawing from other money funds.

To keep the funds from realizing losses as they liquidated assets to meet customers’ redemption requests, the Fed created the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, or AMLF, on Sept. 19, 2008. Under the program, the Fed loaned money to banks so they could buy asset- backed commercial paper — collateralized bonds with a maturity of 270 days or less — from the money funds.

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—
The Fed’s Secret Liquidity Lifelines

August 21 (Bloomberg) — Sanjay Jain called his real estate broker four days ago to cancel a deal to buy a three-bedroom home in Folsom, California, unnerved by another plunge in the most volatile equities market on record.

“Seeing what’s happening on the stock market made me think that it’s not a good time to be buying a home,” Jain said. “I’m going to wait and see.”

As the U.S. economy shows signs of sputtering, instability on Wall Street is sapping the confidence of would-be property buyers, said Karl Case, co-founder of the S&P/Case-Shiller home- price index. That means housing, which aided every recovery except one before the most recent recession, may deepen its five-year drag on growth.

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August 20 (USAGOLD) — I can’t help but think that the recent news about Venezuela has had something do with gold’s rise late this past week. And it may have had something to do with the strong run-up over the past few weeks.

When Venezuela first made its intentions for gold repatriation public, the press reports indentified the Bank of England as the depository for 211 tonnes of its gold. Later, it came out that 99 tonnes were on deposit at BoE and the rest sprinkled among JP Morgan Chase, Barclays, Standard Chartered, and Bank of Nova Scotia — gold bullion banks all.

It was the addition of the bullion banks in press reports that sent off alarm bells in the gold market. We were no longer talking simply about gold under a depository arrangement at the BoE (a rather benign proposition), but metal that had been committed to various lending operations. The inclusion put a whole new light on the Venezuela matter in that it suggests a short position in the physical metal that would need to be filled. Financial Times called the Venezuela withdrawal “one of the largest transfers of physical gold in recent history.” When the news sunk in, gold promptly rallied — trading at $1850 as this is written and trading as high as $1875 overnight Thursday/Friday. Too, and overlooked, Venezuela’s repatriation effort might have been one of the chief driving factors for gold’s strong rally over the past several weeks. The bullion bank scramble, in other words, may have started weeks ago long before Venezuela went public with its intentions.

In plain terms, it is unlikely that Venezuela’s gold is sitting prettily in the above named bullion banks just waiting to be loaded on a cargo plane and sent to Caracas. It was probably loaned out long ago, and then perhaps, redeposited at some other bullion bank and loaned out again, etc. on down the line until it was fractionalized, atomized, and otherwise depleted from its unified whole. In short, it will not be easy for the bullion banks to reassemble this golden Humpty Dumpty.

In turn, failure to materialize the physical metal could prompt similar demands from other gold-depositing nation states and private funds and individuals alike. Moneyed interests globally, as reported extensively in the mainstream press, are on a hair trigger, and ready to move defensively at a moment’s notice. At the whiff of trouble, the equivalent of a bank run could develop in the bullion banking sector. (It is interesting to note that a similar circumstance 40 years ago, almost to the day, forced the United States to close the gold window.)

At the very least, some depositors might be prompted to move their gold into allocated accounts thus removing it from the lending pool. In other words, a great deal more incipient demand may be bubbling beneath surface of the gold market than we presently know.

Michael J. Kosares
The ABCs of Gold Investing: How To Protect and Build Your Wealth With Gold

——

I note that Ireland’s GoldCore registers similar concerns, as does Dennis Gartman (whose newsletter is followed religiously at many of the bullion banks), and Ben Davies of Hinde Capital. Davies stated in an interview at King World News today that Venezuela’s withdrawal was a “game changer” that could catapult gold to the $2100/oz level. I agree with Pete Grant that Venezuela going public with this matter, instead of attending to its business quietly, raises additional questions about the kind of initial response it received. Chris Powell at GATA has done an excellent job tracking this important story.

——
We invite you to subscribe to our free online newsletter — USAGOLD News, Commentary & Analysis (top left column)

August 19 (BusinessInsider) — When priced in gold stocks have now returned to where they were at the market’s low-point, back in 2009. Actually, we’re even worse now.

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August 19 (The New York Sun) — Governor Perry’s remarks on Chairman Bernanke’s debasement of the dollar were greeted with widespread complaints owing to the governor’s raucous tone. So how could he have better made his case? For an example, we commend none other than Charles De Gaulle. We comprehend that the general-turned-president of Free France is renowned for his haughtiness and, for that matter, his mixed view, to put it mildly, of America. Let’s lay that aside for the moment and feature the prophetic remarks he made in February 1965, warning of the incipient monetary crisis that would, absent a return to gold-backed money, engulf the world. When these columns speak of our hope that some leader of our time will address this issue, this is the kind of talk for which we are hankering.

PG View: In 1965 De Gaulle called for a return to an “indisputable monetary base,” one that “does not bear the mark of any particular country.” He of course was referring to gold. As was pointed out in a Forbes article early in the week on the 40th anniversary of President Nixon closing the gold window, “over the last four thousand years, the only period in which humanity has not consistently based its currency in metal, specifically gold, is the last forty.” And look what that has wrought…

August 19 (Financial Times) — The big question for many investors these days is one that could scarcely have been thought about a few years ago: is the west turning into Japan?

The response to that will determine the future direction of western economies as well as of shares and bonds. To date, the tentative answer has been that the developed world is heading Japan’s way as government bonds have far outperformed equities.

“This is looking like a Japan-style scenario. I am more nervous than I have ever been before about it,” says Sushil Wadhwani, founder of the eponymous hedge fund and a former member of the Bank of England’s rate-setting monetary policy committee.

…Since Japanese yields breached the 2 per cent barrier in 1996, they have never risen above it for any sustained period.

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August 19 (The Wall Street Journal) — U.S. stocks closed down Friday, ending another choppy week lower as investors continued worrying about a potential global recession and the health of the European banking system.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 172.93 points, or 1.57%, to 10817.65. The index swung 284.99 points from its session highs to the lows in another volatile session. The zigzag action comes after the blue-chip index tumbled 419.63 points on Thursday.

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By David Wessel
August 19 (The Wall Street Journal) — There are 13.9 million unemployed people in the U.S. – and that just counts those looking for work. That works out to 9.1% of the labor force, the widely publicized unemployed rate.

But here are a few more ways to look at it.

There are more unemployed people in the U.S. than there are people in the state of Illinois, the fifth largest state.

In fact there, there are more unemployed people in the U.S. than there are people in 46 of the 50 states, all but Florida, New York, Texas and California.

There are more unemployed than the combined populations of Wyoming, Vermont, North Dakota, Alaska, South Dakota, Delaware, Montana, Rhode Island, Hawaii, Maine, New Hampshire, Idaho and the District of Columbia.

If they were a country, the 13.9 million unemployed Americans would be the 68th largest country in the world, bigger than the population of Greece or Portugal (each of which has 10.8 million people) and more than twice the population of Norway (4.7 million.)

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Venezuela’s Repatriation Demand Adds to Gold’s Bid

August 19 (USAGOLD) — Gold extended to yet another new all-time high in European trading on Friday at 1876.81, before pulling back into the range. At its high point, the yellow metal was just $123.19 away from $2000 per ounce as rising global growth headwinds continue to wreak havoc on worldwide shares, increasing the appeal of hard assets like gold as a safe-haven. Continued uncertainty that measures to mitigate the sovereign debt crisis in Europe will be successful are also underpinning the market. However, this week’s demand by President Hugo Chávez that Venezuela’s gold reserves held overseas be returned to the country is the latest wild-card that seems to be having a predominantly positive impact on gold.

Venezuela is the 15th largest holder of gold in the world with 365.8 metric tonnes, the majority of which is held in London. For exactly the same reasons that individual investors/savers prefer to have their gold close at hand, it would seem that Venezuela now wants their gold back. They are troubled by the counterparty risks; worried that as the global financial system unravels under the weight of massive debt burdens, that if they don’t get their gold now, they might never be able to get it back. Chávez went so far as to volunteer the basement of the presidential palace if additional storage space were needed.

It’s certainly not beyond Chávez to take a poke at the West purely for the sake of getting everyone all worked up. He’s done it before and he will likely continue to do so as long as he holds power. With such a mindset, he perhaps has a legitimate concern that Venezuela’s assets — including their gold holdings — might be frozen at some point; as we have seen time and time again with other rogue-states. However, in also announcing plans to nationalize Venezuela’s gold production and processing, Chávez clearly is expecting gold prices to continue climbing.

The Bank of England reportedly holds 99.2 metric tonnes of Venezuelan gold. There is some speculation that an initial “official channel” request for a return of their gold may have been met with some resistance, which prompted Chávez to go very public with his demand. All eyes are now on the BoE and arguably they are under a fair amount of pressure to deliver in a timely manor. Failure to do so will rattle the confidence of other sovereigns with gold held outside their borders…and there are a lot of them. If the BoE or any of the other holders of Venezuelan gold proved unable to deliver, it could trigger similar requests for repatriation from other nations, setting off a mad scramble for physical gold.

Based on yesterday’s FT article on the topic, it would seem that the BoE is indeed making preparations to return Venezuela’s gold. Logistics experts have said that they’ve never heard of a physical gold transfer of this size before, but I’d hazard that this wont be the last major transfer of of the yellow metal given the rising price and the rising global uncertainty.

August 18 (Financial Times) — Bullion traders are preparing for one of the largest transfers of physical gold in recent history after Hugo Chávez, Venezuela’s president, ordered the country’s gold reserves to be returned to Caracas.

Venezuela’s central bank is the world’s 15th largest holder of gold, with 365.8 tonnes, of which some 211 tonnes, worth $12.3bn, are held overseas, according to a proposal for the transfer from the Venezuelan central bank and finance ministry.

…“There is a growing preference among many different communities in the gold market to have their physical gold at home,” said Edel Tully, precious metals strategist at UBS.

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August 19 (Financial Times) — Gold has powered to a fresh record, revelling in investors’ fears of a sharp global economic slowdown that have laid waste to equities over recent weeks.

Traders’ wariness is being reflected in the yen’s move to a record versus the US dollar, falling below Y76 for the first time and now on offer at Y76.94, stronger by 0.2 per cent on the day. The Japanese unit has long been considered by some investors as a refuge in turbulent times.

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August 19 (Reuters) — Some European banks were forced to pay more for short-term loans on Friday as anxiety about a rapidly spreading debt crisis in Europe stayed high.

The benchmark for unsecured dollar loans between banks, three-month Libor, rose above 30 basis points for the first time since early April. It fixed at 0.30300 percent.

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