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Gold Retreats on Ongoing Talk of Fed Tapering

by Peter A. Grant

May 14, AM
(from USAGOLD.com) --

Gold is easier today amid ongoing talk of the phased withdrawal of Fed accommodations. New signs of deflationary pressures and persistent firmness in the dollar are also weighing on the yellow metal.
Philly Fed hawk Charles Plosser said today that the central bank was risking its credibility if it fails to taper accommodations in light of recent improvements in the labor market. Plosser thinks this should happen as quickly as the June FOMC meeting. However, he hedged by saying further easing may also be necessary if inflation expectations fall.

U.S. import and export prices obliged today, falling 0.5% and 0.7% respectively in April. Both were below expectations. Deflationary pressures on one hand diminish the appeal of gold as an inflation hedge. However, on the other hand, deflation is going to force the Fed to push all that much harder in its battle to create inflation, increasing the likelihood that they will overshoot their target.

The dollar index set a new high for the year today at 83.59, within striking distance of three-year highs at 84.10. The greenback is being boosted by a softer euro and continued weakness in the yen.

USD-JPY cleared the 102.00 level this week, putting the rate at levels not seen since September 2008. The yen came under further pressure today on talk from BoJ watchers that PM Abe was likely to announce the second phase of his aggressive growth agenda, perhaps as soon as Friday.

Apparently a doubling of the monetary base over the next two-years just wasn't going to be sufficient to end decades of deflation and reinvigorate the moribund Japanese economy. There's another shoe to drop in Japan. While widely anticipated to focus on tax cuts, deregulation and investment policy, given the aggressiveness of the Abe government and the Kuroda BoJ, markets remain wary.

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Gold Retreats on Ongoing Talk of Fed Tapering