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Pressure Mounts on ECB to Ease

by Peter A. Grant

Apr 30, AM
(from USAGOLD.com) --

Gold is consolidating at modestly lower levels as the FOMC commences their two-day meeting. With the Fed announcing policy on Wednesday and the ECB doing so on Thursday, the yellow metal is likely to be narrowly confined until the ECB reveals its plans.

The Fed is widely expected to hold steady on policy. Those that had been advocating for a phased withdrawal of Fed accommodations, beginning as soon as later this year, have been silent in recent weeks. Less than stellar economic data and declining inflation expectations have seemingly reduced such expectations markedly.

The ECB on the other hand has a choice to make. In light of mounting deflationary pressures and rather grim economic data, the ECB may well cut rates by 25 bps on Thursday.

The euzone reported new record highs in unemployment in March at 12.1%, with the FT noting that "Youth unemployment was nearly double the headline rate and there was no sign of improvement in the worst-hit countries such as Spain and Portugal." Spain's GDP contracted by 0.5% in Q1. German retail sales fell 0.3% in March to a -2.8% annual pace.

The Washington Post's Neil Irwin tweeted the following this morning:

Yesterday: German inflation very low. Today: Eurozone unemployment very high. If ECB doesn't ease Thurs., I don't know what they're doing.

As the outlook for the eurozone darkens, it is doubtful that a 25 bps rate cut is going to have any meaningful impact. The rest of the industrialized world is at best treading water with lower interest rates and gobs of extraordinary measures. Europe, with German at the controls, is foundering in a comparatively tight monetary environment.

A small concession by the ECB this week might be a bit of a feel-good, but more significantly it would be a further indication that the age of easy money is here to stay for some time to come. And gold tends to thrive in an easy money environment.

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Pressure Mounts on ECB to Ease