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Gold Soft vs Dollar, Near Record Highs vs Yen

by Peter A. Grant

Apr 08, AM
(from USAGOLD.com) --

Gold is lower as rebounding risk appetite continue to sap safe-haven demand for the yellow metal. Global equities are taking their cues from Japanese stocks and the Nikkei surged nearly 3% today as the sheer magnitude of the BoJ's new accommodations are starting to sink in. However, U.S. stocks still seem somewhat skeptical.

The BoJ is going to be buying ¥7.5 trillion ($80 bln) in bonds per month. That's about the same volume of assets the Fed purchases every month, but the Japanese economy is about a third the size of the U.S. economy. Viewed the other way, it would be the equivalent of the Fed buying $240 bln a month. That would amount to nearly $3 trillion per year.

Economist and author John Mauldin said in his Thoughts from the Frontline newsletter, "This is going to be a huge economic experiment. I think it will end in tears for Japan…" Axel Merk of Merk Investments suggested the yen will eventually become worthless, because once the currency loses its safe-haven status, a debt to GDP ratio over 200% (actually closer to 240% and rising) starts to matter. The Washington Post's Neil Irwinworriess that "If things go awry, we could soon be staring at the mother of all sovereign debt crises."

The yen gapped lower against its major counterparts today, including gold. The yellow metal is now back within 1% of its record high against the Japanese currency.

In Europe, Portugal is back in the headlines after their Constitutional Court ruled cuts to state pensions and public sector wages were in violation of the constitution. This blows a huge hole in Portugal's budget, threatens their bailout and the government of PM Pedro Passos Coelho.

The European Commission has already stated that it expects Portugal to live up to the terms of its bailout, which leaves Passos Coelho struggling to find other places to cut. Rumors are already circulating that the PM will step down. Another governmental change will highlight once again the political instability in southern Europe. So even as the Cyprus debacle fades into the past, don't think for a second that the European debt crisis has been successfully resolved.

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Opinions expressed in commentary on the USAGOLD.com website do not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product, nor should they be viewed in any way as investment advice or advice to buy, sell or hold. USAGOLD, Inc. recommends the purchase of physical precious metals for asset preservation purposes, not speculation. Utilization of these opinions for speculative purposes is neither suggested nor advised. Commentary is strictly for educational purposes, and as such USAGOLD does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information found here.

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Gold Soft vs Dollar, Near Record Highs vs Yen