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Gold Defensive, but Underpinned by Events in EU

by Peter A. Grant

Mar 26, AM
(from USAGOLD.com) --

Gold is straddling the $1600 level today as the market reconciles the short-term salvation of Cyprus, with the longer-term implications of the deal. The euro remains defensive below 1.2900, having eked out another new four-month low.

Yesterday Dutch Finance Minister, and President of the Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers Jeroen Dijsselbloem suggested the Cyprus haircut was a “template for the rest of the eurozone.” Shortly thereafter he backtracked on the statement, undoubtedly after being rebuked by other members of the troika.

Yet today, less than 24-hours after Dijsselbloem's original statement and retraction, the European Parliament is reportedly pushing for depositors above €100k to face a "bail-in" under a new bank resolution law. It looks like Cyprus may be a "template" for the rest of the eurozone after all. This news should be troubling for anyone with money in a European bank, or perhaps a bank in general...

Fitch put Cyprus on rating watch negative today, noting that the shock to the economy from the banking system will have "profound negative implications." As we noted yesterday, the financial sector accounts for 9.2% of GDP and 5.6% of employment in Cyprus. That does indeed quality as profoundly negative.

One thing is for certain, recent suggestions that the European debt crisis was over were clearly premature. With a deep recession, and perhaps a depression in the cards for Cyprus, one can only wonder how long it will take for them to request their next bailout. And at that point, what will they use as bargaining chips? Severe austerity? Deposits less than €100k? A threat to leave the EMU?

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Opinions expressed in commentary on the USAGOLD.com website do not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product, nor should they be viewed in any way as investment advice or advice to buy, sell or hold. USAGOLD, Inc. recommends the purchase of physical precious metals for asset preservation purposes, not speculation. Utilization of these opinions for speculative purposes is neither suggested nor advised. Commentary is strictly for educational purposes, and as such USAGOLD does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information found here.

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Gold Defensive, but Underpinned by Events in EU