Gold Stabilizes After Establishing New Record High

by Peter A. Grant

I will be out of the office from Mar 28 through Mar 30, consequently this page will not be updating during that period.

March 25, a.m.
(from USAGOLD.com) --

Gold extended to a new all-time high of 1447.40 on Thursday before succumbing to profit taking. The corrective activity was initially triggered by silver's rapid surge to a 31-year high above $38.00, but physical buying interest quickly established support in both markets. While the Thursday's reversal day in gold (outside-day/lower-close) may give some technicians pause, the pattern was not repeated in silver, which eked out a slightly better close. While further profit taking ahead of the weekend can not be ruled out, the dominant uptrends in both gold and silver are likely to continue to garner support from broad-based risk aversion flows and ongoing dollar weakness.

Concerns about the Japanese nuclear disaster came back to the fore yesterday amid speculation that the number 3 reactor core at the stricken Fukushima nuclear plant may have been breached. Standing water in the lower level of the reactor building was reported to contain radiation levels 10,000 times higher than normal cooling system water. Two workers were hospitalized with radiation burns after wading through the standing water. The latest worries have prompted a widening of the evacuation area by nearly 60%, from a 12 to a 19 mile radius.

There continues to be a fair amount of confusion about specific roles in the UN sanctioned military action in Libya. After much squabbling, NATO has agreed to take over control of the Libyan no-fly zone. However, they remain reluctant to take control of the much more difficult and dangerous missions to protect civilians (and presumably rebels) against attack from pro-Gaddafi forces. Once the combatants are mixed together in an urban warfare environment like Misrata, differentiating the "good guys" from the "bad guys" from the air becomes all-but impossible. So far US forces are doing the lion's share of these missions, creating political complications for the Obama administration, which promised a quick transition for US forces to support roles.

Syria is the latest country in the region to experience heightened political unrest, leading to bloodshed. Protests were seen in Deraa, Damascus and Hama on Friday. There were reports of more gunfire in Deraa, where as many as 25 protesters were killed earlier in the week. Preliminary reports suggest another 20 anti-government protesters may have been killed today. Yemen's embattled President Ali Abdullah Saleh indicated that he is ready to give up power, but only if he can leave Yemen in "safe hands." If Yemen becomes the third country in the region to successfully oust its autocratic leader, protests in places like Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, among others may intensify.

Oil prices remain underpinned by continued unrest in the Middle East and North Africa. Additionally, as the nuclear crisis in Japan extends into its third week, there is a growing consensus that the world will become even more reliant on increasingly scarce carbon-based fuels, such as oil. In fact, French President Sarkozy pledged that any nuclear reactor in Europe that doesn't pass planned stress tests will be shut down. Heightened demand will push the price of such fuels relentlessly higher and threaten some countries with a slide back into recession. In the US, that is likely to lead to further loose monetary policy, which will keep downward pressure on the dollar. A weak dollar is generally supportive to gold.

High oil prices will also weigh on the nascent recovery in the European economy, but that is probably the least of their worries right now. The collapse of the Portuguese government earlier in the week contributed to a two notch downgrade in their sovereign debt by S&P to BBB. S&P cited political uncertainty and eroding market confidence, warning that further downgrades may be in the offing. Nonetheless, the Portuguese "care-taker" government steadfastly maintains that they don't need a bailout. One market analyst put it quite succinctly, saying that Lisbon is "delusional".

Amid the rising expectation that Portugal is on the verge of tapping the EU bailout facility, ministers at the eurozone summit in Brussels pressed ahead with plans to create a permanent European Stability Mechanism. There were rumblings today that the EU planned to hold the UK to an agreement signed by outgoing Chancellor Darling to contribute to the bailout facility, even though the UK is not a member of the EU. Many members of the British parliament, and of course UK taxpayers are "furious". With England in the midst of its own financial crisis, they wonder where those moneys are going to come from. Well, the Bank of England can always print it.

The People's Bank of China has expressed concerns about that very thing, and not just in the UK. The PBoC warned about the risk of "competitive devaluations" by developed countries in general. In addition, they warned about inflation and asset bubbles in emerging countries. They did get a little more specific about the dollar, saying it was likely to trend weaker throughout 2011. In the PBoC's opinion, because of these risks, gold is likely to remain high.

Peter Grant is USAGOLD's resident economist and a well-known analyst globally in the forex and precious metals markets.

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