by Peter A. Grant
March 24, a.m.
(from
USAGOLD.com)
--
Gold has finally pushed to new all-time highs above the early
March peak at 1444.60, led by hard-charging silver, which has traded
above $38.00. The yellow metal had been fairly well contained for
most of the week as silver extended to new 31-year highs. Heightening
sovereign debt concerns in Europe, escalating political unrest in
Syria and a magnitude 6.8
earthquake which hit Myanmar near its boarder with Thailand and
China, have all piled upon existing concerns over Japan and
MENA.
[chart]
In line with expectations, the Portuguese
parliament rejected the latest austerity budget late last night and
PM Socrates fulfilled his pledge to resign. While Socrates is
attending the EU summit in Brussels as the "caretaker" of
the Portuguese government, this latest turn of events leaves the
country essentially rudderless in the midst of a major crisis.
Expectations are that Portugal will be forced to accept a bailout,
like Greece and Ireland before it, which is likely to have further
austerity measures attached to it anyway.
Just as eurozone
leaders convene with the goal of preventing contagion, the collapse
-- and likely bailout -- of Portugal has increased the Spanish risk.
The euro continues to hold up well though, underpinned by sovereign
demand and safe-haven bids. However, a collapse of the monetary union
should not be completely discounted. As Warren
Buffett told CNBC, "You can't have three or four or five
countries that are in effect free-riding on the other countries. That
won't work over time—they have to get their fiscal houses in
reasonable harmony."
Political unrest is escalating in
Syria as the security forces of President Bashar al-Assad reportedly
fired on protesters in the city of Deraa, killing at least 15. This
comes as coalition forces aligned against Libyan strongman Muammar
Gaddafi executed their most aggressive bombings of the conflict, as
rebel forces struggle to regroup. The ongoing, and arguably rising,
geopolitical and military tensions in the Middle East and North
Africa are expected to keep oil prices elevated for some time to
come, creating risks to growth in the heavily energy dependent
industrialized world. These risks to growth in turn increase the
likelihood that Western central banks will keep their monetary
policies loose, despite the simultaneous rise in inflation
risks.
Workers in Japan continue their efforts to stabilize
the stricken nuclear plant at Fukushima amid concerns about their
health and the contamination impact. The Japanese disaster has
prompted a global debate about the risks of nuclear power that may
leave us even more dependent on increasingly scarce carbon-based
fuels. This too will keep upward pressure on oil and gas prices,
threatening to derail nascent economic recoveries around the world.
Clearly the Japanese economy is exceedingly vulnerable, but so too is
the US with a very well defined historical record of recessions being
triggered by spikes in energy prices.
Peter Grant is USAGOLD's resident economist and a well-known analyst globally in the forex and precious metals markets.
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