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Gold Bouncesby Peter A. Grant
Feb 21, AM 
Gold has rebounded modestly after today's raft of US economic data undermined a couple of key notions that have been weighing on gold of late. The yellow metal is up more than $10 on the day and is nearly $30 off the 7-month low established overseas at 1554.60, leaving the low end of the range at 1522.40 untested.Initial jobless claims jumped 20k last week to 362k, unwinding most of the 26k drop in claims seen the previous week. January leading economic indicators missed expectations, and the Philly Fed index plunged to -12.5 on expectations of a rise to 1.2. This seems to have tempered concerns raised by yesterday's release of the minutes from January's FOMC minutes, which showed that members continue to voice concerns about ongoing QE. My sense is that some FOMC members will continue to feign consternation about the Fed's exploding balance sheet, but in reality the die is cast. In establishing the guidance that targets unemployment at 6.5% late last year, the Fed is committed to the QE path. They change the guidance (again) at the risk of their own credibility. The commitment to further QE could waver if inflation starts to rise, but CPI came in unchanged for the second consecutive month. Inflation — at least as measured by the Labor Department — remains in check. Additionally, today's data is contrary to the meme that the macroeconomic environment is improving, warranting a rotation out of safe havens like gold and into riskier investments like stocks. And it's not just the U.S. data. The FT makes note of the plunge in France's composite PMI, which threatens the recovery of the entire eurozone. If the whole notion of euphoria attributable to "green shoots" seems hauntingly familiar, it's because Fed chairman Bernanke first used the term in the Spring of 2009. Obviously that optimism was sorely misplaced. Then we had the "recovery summer" in 2010. That too proved to be premature. I suppose it's human nature to hope, but those that shed their hedges based solely on hope do so at their own peril. In fact, now might be a good opportunity to bolster those hedges. NEWSLETTER SIGN-UP Opinions expressed in commentary on the USAGOLD.com website do not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product, nor should they be viewed in any way as investment advice or advice to buy, sell or hold. USAGOLD, Inc. recommends the purchase of physical precious metals for asset preservation purposes, not speculation. Utilization of these opinions for speculative purposes is neither suggested nor advised. Commentary is strictly for educational purposes, and as such USAGOLD does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information found here.
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