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Gold Choppy Ahead of ECB Policy

by Peter A. Grant

Feb 05, AM
(from USAGOLD.com) --

Gold has traded in a choppy manner today, jumping to a 2-week high in early New York trading, then dropping back into the range. Reuters suggested in an article today that buyers are waiting for prices to drop below support.

I would submit, that a sustained move above $1700 would also encourage buyers. The midpoint of the range that has dominated for more than a year is found at 1721.61.

The euro was similarly volatile, initially weighed by French PM's Hollande's expressed concerns about recent euro strength. Hollande said the eurozone should have an "exchange rate policy," noting that "The euro should not fluctuate according to the mood of the markets." That would suggest that Hollande was advocating for a fixed exchange rate policy, or that he simply has no concept about how markets operate.

The euro subsequently rebounded on reports that euro strength would not prompt further easing on the part of the ECB. The central bank will announce policy on Thursday and is widely expected to hold the refi rate steady at 0.75%. While that is a pretty low interest rate, it's still quite a bit higher than the benchmark rates of the BoE, Fed and BoJ. The single currency has garnered additional support in recent months from a growing consensus that a breakup of the EU has been successfully averted.

Interestingly, developing political scandals in both Spain and Italy threaten to sap that sense of relief and move the European debt crisis back onto the radar screens of global market. That may actually be viewed as a good thing in the eyes of those like Hollande.

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Gold Choppy Ahead of ECB Policy