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Gold Jumps With Jobless Rate

by Peter A. Grant

Feb 01, AM
(from USAGOLD.com) --

Gold firmed in early New York trading in reaction to an uptick in the U.S. unemployment rate to 7.9%. The logic of course being that the rise in the jobless rate puts it further rather than nearer to the Fed's target of 6.5%, and the likely removal of monetary accommodations.

Better than expected construction spending, manufacturing ISM and consumer confidence numbers tempered the rally in gold somewhat, as did the significant upward revisions to November and December nonfarm payrolls. While this is all generally reflective of improving economic conditions, it all doesn't quite jibe with the 0.1% contraction in Q4 GDP that was reported earlier in the week.

The Fed reiterated their über-accommodative policy stance this week, noting that economic activity had "paused in recent months." However, BoJ policy continues to steal the show, driving the yen to new 2 1/2 year lows against the US and Canadian dollars and the euro, as well as new 3-year lows against sterling. Meanwhile gold has established new 32-year highs against the yen.

When these other countries start experiencing some pain as the yen is devalued against their currency, some retaliation is not out of the question. For instance, the US auto industry already has its hackles up in opposition to the debasement of the yen, which makes Japanese made automobiles less expensive on international markets. If this situation deteriorates into a full fledged currency or trade war, things could get really interesting in the gold market.

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Gold Jumps With Jobless Rate