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Gold Defensive Ahead of FOMC Meeting

by Peter A. Grant

Jan 28, AM
(from USAGOLD.com) --

Gold begins the week on a defensive footing, amid expectations that some improvements in the U.S. economy will lead to a more benign central bank policy stance this week. The FOMC begins a two-day meeting on Tuesday. The policy statement will come out at 19:15 GMT on Wednesday.

I wouldn't expect any dramatic shift in policy. The Fed has been quite adamant that accommodations will continue even after the economy shows improvements. A drop in the jobless rate to 6.5% is their guidance now and that's not likely to happen before 2015. Expectation for January's unemployment rate, which will be released on Friday, suggest steady at 7.8%.

The Fed's balance sheet exceeded $3 trillion last week and is widely expected to approach $4 trillion before they even think about winding down QE4. Historically, the price of gold and the size of the Fed's balance sheet has been correlated. As the balance sheet consolidated throughout 2012, so too did gold. Now that the balance sheet is making new highs, one might expected the long-term uptrend in gold to resume as well once the lingering concerns about the Fed removing accommodations are put to rest.

We talked on Friday about how the massive debt of the U.S. is its own headwind to economic recovery. Today, we saw the yield on the 10-year bond trade above 2% for the first time since April of last year. Every uptick in yield adds to the refunding cost as that debt is ultimately rolled over. If anything, this increases the likelihood that the Fed will attempt to keep yields suppressed near zero and that in turn means that they will have to leave accommodations in place.

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Gold Defensive Ahead of FOMC Meeting