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Gold Weighed by Debt Ceiling Punt and Low Jobless Claims Last Week

by Peter A. Grant

Jan 24, AM
(from USAGOLD.com) --

Gold is under moderate pressure after losing momentum ahead of the $1700 level. The yellow metal is being weighed on by Congress's latest punt on the debt ceiling, which for some has diminished the appeal of gold as a safe haven. Additionally, today's better than expected US initial claims print has increased speculation that the Fed will be able to remove accommodations sooner rather than later.

While the day of reckoning on the debt ceiling has been pushed into May, it does nothing to alleviate the underlying problem. In fact, it allows the government to continue its profligate ways amassing even more debt over the next several months. Now Congress can turn its attention to side stepping the sequester that's suppose to take effect March 1. Which all begs the question, why do are politicians even bother with the smoke an mirrors any more? One way or another, the government is going to continue spending money it doesn't have.

This will in turn force the Fed to continue printing money and keep interest rates artificially low. So, despite today's better than expected claims data, monetary policy is going to remain über-accommodative for a some time to come. Morgan Stanley says they are skeptical that the members of the FOMC that seemed to adopted a more hawkish bent back in December will succeed in "overturning the current monetary policy setting before the end of 2014." I suspect we'll be well into 2015 before we can consider talk of tighter policy serious.

Such policy provides one of the key underpinnings to the gold market. Talk this week has focused on the latest BoJ policy moves, which significantly escalated concerns about central bank autonomy and the possibility of retaliatory currency devaluations. Amid the rising risk of a currency war, gold is seen as an effective hedge.

Central bank gold buying is expected to persist as well. Today in Davos, First Deputy Chairman Alexei Ulyukayev of the Bank of Russia said, "We are buying metal and will continue to pursue this course." The Russian central bank bought 80 tonnes of gold last year and is expected to buy a similar volume in 2013.

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Gold Weighed by Debt Ceiling Punt and Low Jobless Claims Last Week