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>Tuesday's Sell-Off Leaves Gold Mired in Range

by Peter A. Grant

Dec 19, AM
(from USAGOLD.com) --

Gold is consolidating yesterday's sharp losses, amid ongoing debate over the US fiscal cliff. The yellow metal fell to new four month lows on Tuesday, weighed by heightened expectations of a fiscal cliff deal or by waning expectations of a fiscal cliff deal; there were plenty of headlines yesterday expressing both views.

One analyst that I follow suggested the financial press was going through all sorts of contortions trying to find an answer for why precious metals fell, "while there might well be none at all." Maybe it's the uncertainty over the cliff as we tick ever closer to sequestration, maybe it's renewed risk appetite based on some expectation that a deal will get done. Maybe it's just position squaring ahead of year end. Maybe it's just algorithms run amok in holiday thinned pre-holiday trade.

Whatever the reason, the physical buyers are out in force as they usually are when the paper market sells off like this. Gold did managed to bounce off the 200-day moving average and the 50% retracement level of the May to October rally from 1526.80 to 1795.89. These losses leave the yellow metal mired within the confines of the range that has dominated this year, but still up about 9% YTD.

More importantly, none of the fundamentals have changed meaningfully: The moribund U.S. economy remains buried under a mountain of debt. Real interest rates remain negative as the Fed and other major central banks continue to print money and expand their balance sheets, while China and other emerging countries continue to accumulate gold in an effort to diversify their reserve holdings of these debased currencies. These dominant macro trends are unlikely to change any time soon, so neither will the dominant underlying trend in gold.

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>Tuesday's Sell-Off Leaves Gold Mired in Range