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Gold Retreats As New Fed Accommodations Match Expectations

by Peter A. Grant

Dec 13, AM
(from USAGOLD.com) --

Gold has come under renewed selling pressure, despite yesterday's announcement of the latest Fed accommodations. Yet dips below $1700 are attracting buying interest once again.

The addition of $45 bin in outright Treasury purchases to replace Twist was widely expected. The shift in forward guidance from date-based to unemployment and inflation based was a surprise, but the guidance itself is pretty much the same. Fed central tendencies suggest the jobless rate doesn't have potential below 6.5% until 2015.

This is exactly what the calendar based guidance has been saying for some time. The FOMC says as much in the statement itself: "The Committee views these thresholds as consistent with its earlier date-based guidance." So the guidance is unchanged and the policy itself was exactly what the market was expecting.

The market is still trying to digest the implications of the shift in guidance methodology, so it's not terribly surprising to see some position squaring as a result of that uncertainty. Additionally, with year-end fast approaching there is probably some desire to lock-in profits, given the still looming uncertainty about the fiscal cliff and the debt ceiling.

While gold has been broadly consolidative this year, the longer term fundamentals remain supportive to underlying bull trend. The Fed's balance sheet has consolidated this year as well, but is now poised for further expansion toward $4 trillion. That bodes well for gold in the year ahead.

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Gold Retreats As New Fed Accommodations Match Expectations