Live London Gold News Wire

NEW in the last 5 minutes www.usagold.com --LIVE NEWS--
Greece says recession worse than first thought	04:11 ArabNews - Economy
Canadian economy adds 52,100 jobs	04:11 ArabNews - Economy
Grand Bazaar reopens after currency protests	04:10 Gulf News - Gulf
15 to 30 minutes old www.usagold.com --LIVE NEWS--
FM P Chidamrabaram to inaugurate Economic Editors' conference on Monday	03:56 The Economic Times
Report: ECB official says bank can’t help Greece with bond rollover, lower interest rates	03:50 The Washington Post
FM meets RBI, Sebi officials to revive the economy	03:47 The Economic Times
30 minutes to 1 hour old www.usagold.com --LIVE NEWS--
FM P Chidambaram meets RBI, Sebi officials to revive the economy	03:35 The Times of India - Policy
Tehran's Grand Bazaar reopens after currency protests	03:30 Reuters - Economy
Report: ECB official says no help on Greek bonds	03:29 Associated Press
Thresholds in the economic effects of oil prices	03:27 The Oil Drum (Weblog)
1 to 2 hours old www.usagold.com --LIVE NEWS--
ECB: No Restructuring of Greek Debt	03:13 Novinite - News
Low Inflation May Push Indonesia's Bond Prices Up	03:04 Jakarta Globe - Business
Underlying market tone remains bullish, but stock selection will be crucial	02:45 The Economic Times - Markets/Analysis
Underlying market tone remains bullish: Angel Broking	02:41 The Economic Times - Economy
Putin still popular as he turns 60, but economic challenges may erode his support base	02:29 Orlando Sentinel, Florida
Amazon pays top dollar to buy Seattle HQ	02:23 MoneyControl.com
Malaysian Economy More Balanced Now With Less Reliance On FDIs, Says PM	02:20 Bernama - Malaysian National News Agency - Business News List
2 to 4 hours old www.usagold.com --LIVE NEWS--
37 kg of gold stolen from Kerala-based pvt firm in Madurai	02:13 MoneyControl.com
Growing shortage of high-tech manpower could hamper Israel's economic growth	01:43 Ha'aretz - Business
Gold And Silver - Financial Body Armor For Your Portfolio Against Inflation	01:41 SeekingAlpha - Macro View
Warren Gold Announces That The Time To Invest In Real Estate Is Today	01:29 Yahoo! US - Business - Press Releases
Gold forecast of US$2,200 per oz in 2013 -- Explor Resources Inc. Growing Gold …	01:29 Yahoo! US - Business - Press Releases
Kuwait''s inflation down to 2.8 pct in August	01:24 Middle East North Africa Financial Network
Kuwait partakes in GCC finance, economic ministerial meeting	01:24 Middle East North Africa Financial Network
Troika wants Greece to frontload austerity measures as recession deepens	01:20 Eurointelligence (Weblog)
Family Dollar Stores - Long-Term Appeal After The Company Guides For Strong Future Earnings Growth	01:16 SeekingAlpha - Long & Short Ideas
Pound Drops Against Euro on U.K. Growth Concern; Gilts Decline	01:09 Bloomberg - UK
Newspapers bullish on print editions, study finds	01:06 Columbia Daily Tribune, Missouri - Business
German Chancellor to visit Greece next week to discuss the future of the country's bailout	01:03 The Philadelphia Inquirer, Pennsylvania - Business
Germany Said to Back Adding Non-Euro States to Bank Plan	00:59 Bloomberg - Markets - Currencies
ECB’s Coeure Says Euro Economy Will Grow Again in 2013: Delo	00:59 Bloomberg - Economy
Putin strong at 60 but economic challenges loom	00:57 The Boston Globe - Business
ECB can't extend maturity of Greek bonds	00:29 Business Times Online - World
Earlier Today www.usagold.com --LIVE NEWS--
insight: Is having a national carrier a must? Some economic perspectives	00:13 The Citizen, Tanzania - Business
insight: ABG expands gold mining area at Bulyanhulu	00:13 The Citizen, Tanzania - Business
Recession makes working longer a necessity for many	00:11 Star-Telegram, Texas - Business
Iran blames economic 'conspiracy' for crisis	00:09 Trade Arabia - Government & Economy
Iran official blames economic conspiracy as price rises loom	00:06 Arab Times - Business
4 to 6 hours old www.usagold.com --LIVE NEWS--
Iran's Currency Crisis Worsens Already-Dire Fiscal Situation	23:51 Forbes - Home Asia
Is It Time To Buy Silver? Part 3	23:30 SeekingAlpha - Macro View
It's not just the economy: Why football and sharks can affect elections	23:17 Reuters - Industries - Technology, Media & Telecoms

Drop in Jobless Rate Sews Optimism, But...

by Peter A. Grant

Oct 05, AM
(from USAGOLD.com) --

Call it the curse of being an economist, but what others happily accept as good news, I am compelled to scratch at the surface searching for answers. This is particularly true when the anecdotal evidence I see in the real world doesn't jibe with the data While I hope for confirmation of good news — particularly with respect to jobs — frequently over the past several years, the outcome has been just the opposite.

Today's September nonfarm payrolls report was a mixed bag. The headline 114,000 new jobs added was still a very weak number, a far cry from what is really needed. Back-month revisions were more encouraging, but even the 142,000 jobs in August (revised up from 96,000 initially) isn't even close to being reflective of a true labor market recovery.

What was encouraging — at least from a headline perspective — was the 0.3% drop in the unemployment rate to 7.8%, the lowest print since January 2009. The household survey, from which the jobless rate is derived, jumped a massive 873,000 jobs. Great news right? Not so fast...

It turns out that 582,000 of those new jobs in the household survey (or 2/3rds) were part-time positions, in a category the BLS describes as "persons employed part time for economic reasons". They're also referred to as "involuntary part-time workers," as they would prefer to be employed full-time.

Arguably part-time work is better than no work, but the data aren't nearly as rosy as some seem to want to believe:

The labor force participation rate remains weak at just 63.3%. These recent levels were last seen in the early-1980s. The participation rate for men specifically is 70%, just off the all-time low of 69.6% set earlier in the year. The U6 number remains at 14.7% un/under-employment, as that series counts "involuntary part-time workers" as underemployed.

I'm afraid we'll find that most of the 582,000 part-time jobs gained in September are low paying — and likely fleeting — retail positions. They might prove sticky through the Christmas shopping season, but then again, they might not.

Despite the recent negative revisions to GDP, down to 1.3% in Q2 (ouch!) and expectations now running around 1.4% for Q3, consumer sentiment actually rose over the last several months. This resulted in modest gains in retail sales in July and August of 0.6% and 0.9%, respectively.

Consumers were spending, but they were primarily utilizing credit. August consumer credit is expected to come out at +$8bln later today, versus -$3.3bln in July, although the latter is likely to be revised higher.

Consumption is also coming at the expense savings. The personal savings rate dropped to 3.7% in August, down nearly 16% from the recent high of 4.4% in June. This is off significantly from the highs above 6% in the worst days of the financial crisis.

Gold retreated on this news. Maybe it was just the knee-jerk reaction that has been engrained in recent years: Good data lessens the likelihood of further Fed accommodations. However, the Fed made it very clear in their recent FOMC statement that good news is not going to incite them to back-off on their über-accommodative policy stance. In fact, if one where to interpret today's jobs data as truly optimistic, I would argue it is then a significant inflationary risk; more people working, more people spending.

Instead, I think we remain in the same old economic malaise we were in last month, and last year for that matter. This will keep interest rates at negative levels in real terms and precipitate further currency debasement, as the Fed continues its battle against deflationary pressures.

But however this all unfolds, gold remains a portfolio stalwart, providing a hedge against all of the "-ations": Inflation. Deflation. Staglation. Hyper-inflation. Whatever comes your way, your gold holdings will serve you well.

Peter Grant is USAGOLD's resident economist and a well-known analyst globally in the forex and precious metals markets.

NEWSLETTER SIGN-UP

Opinions expressed in commentary on the USAGOLD.com website do not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product, nor should they be viewed in any way as investment advice or advice to buy, sell or hold. USAGOLD, Inc. recommends the purchase of physical precious metals for asset preservation purposes, not speculation. Utilization of these opinions for speculative purposes is neither suggested nor advised. Commentary is strictly for educational purposes, and as such USAGOLD does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information found here.

Gold dealers index of gold coin images - popular investments

USAGOLD Bulletin Board

Just released!
The all new Third Edition

Chapters

Reviews

Preview

Order

The Third Edition of this classic how-to details gold's rising prominence in the global financial arena and offers insights as to what this surprising and historic shift in sentiment might mean to the gold market of the future. It also suggests practical guidelines for adding gold to your portfolio drawing from the author's nearly 40 years experience in the gold business.

"Highly recommended!"
The Midwest Book Review

1-800-869-5115
Marie, Extension #106

Looking for the right
gold firm?

Competitive rates
Safe, quick delivery
Zero complaints at BBB
Friendly, professional service
Recognized industry leader

You just found it.

USAGOLD
Celebrating our 39th year
in the gold business.

Seven reasons
high-net worth gold
investors choose
USAGOLD

Video Roundtable:

Fundamentals pave way
for gold breakout

Precious Metals Trading and Storage Program
Competition for the ETFs
with a delivery option

VISIT OUR NEW PAGE!

Gold's Secular Bull Market
Past-Present-Future

Good Stuff !

P.O. Box 460009
Denver, Colorado 80246-0009

1-800-869-5115 (US)
00-800-8720-8720 (EU)

303-399-6759 (Fax)

[email protected]

Office Hours

6:00am - 7:00pm
(U.S. Mountain Time)
Monday - Friday

American Numismatic Association
Member since 1975

Industry Council for Tangible Assets

zero complaints

Saturday October 6
website support: [email protected]
Site Map - Privacy - Disclaimer
The USAGOLD logo and stylized gold coin pile are trademarks of Michael J. Kosares.
© 1997-2012 Michael J. Kosares / USAGOLD All Rights Reserved

Daily Gold Market Report

Drop in Jobless Rate Sews Optimism, But...