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Markets Look to NFP, Even as CEOs Hiring Expectations Plunge

by Peter A. Grant

Oct 02, AM
(from USAGOLD.com) --

Gold is consolidating after setting new highs for the year yesterday at 1791.28. In the face of additional important chart resistance at 1802.89 (01-Nov-11 high), the market already seems to be looking forward to Friday's US employment data for additional directional clues.

In looking forward to the data, I don't think the market is any longer seeking guidance on the size and scope of QE. After all, QE3 has already been announced and it is open-ended in nature. Additionally, the Fed pretty strongly indicated that even good data would not deter them from the extraordinary easing path they have embarked on. Rather, given the rising concerns over growth risks, the market wants to know exactly what the Fed is up against in light of their intensified focus on persistently high unemployment.

Perhaps the information being sought is already out there:

The results of Business Roundtable’s (BRT) third quarter CEO Economic Outlook Survey for 2012 show a further downturn in CEOs’ expectations for sales, capital spending and hiring for the next six months. The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Survey Index decreased to 66.0 in the third quarter of 2012 from 89.1 in the second quarter of 2012, the lowest reading since the third quarter of 2009 and the third largest single quarter drop in the survey’s history.

In other words, despite the Fed's über-accommodative policy stance, CEOs are substantially less likely to expend capital and hire in the coming six months than the rather dismal realities of the last quarter. It is further evidence that the Fed is indeed pushing on a rope. Perhaps it too is confirmation that Dallas Fed hawk Richard Fisher was spot-on when he said last week that "all the monetary accommodation in the world" will not get businesses hiring again. Fiscal certainty, with regard to taxes and regulation, is what businesses seek according to Fisher, but apparently CEOs don't believe that will be forthcoming any time soon.

That ongoing fiscal uncertainty, along with a massive and open-ended monetary expansion to-boot, provides all the reasons in the world to add a gold component to your portfolio. Time to call your broker.

Peter Grant is USAGOLD's resident economist and a well-known analyst globally in the forex and precious metals markets.

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Opinions expressed in commentary on the USAGOLD.com website do not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product, nor should they be viewed in any way as investment advice or advice to buy, sell or hold. USAGOLD, Inc. recommends the purchase of physical precious metals for asset preservation purposes, not speculation. Utilization of these opinions for speculative purposes is neither suggested nor advised. Commentary is strictly for educational purposes, and as such USAGOLD does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information found here.

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Markets Look to NFP, Even as CEOs Hiring Expectations Plunge